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538: Daniel Jones Hasn’t Figured Out Zone Coverage Yet

V.I.G. : 11/26/2019 8:47 pm
Pretty fascinating article with statistical support
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well at least he has  
pjcas18 : 11/26/2019 11:36 pm : link
Alex Tanney to help him figure it out.
Makes you wonder about this part as well...  
jcn56 : 11/26/2019 11:42 pm : link
Quote:
More surprising, given generational talent Saquon Barkley at running back, is Jones’s QBR of 24.9 on play-action passes against zone, which places him 30th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks.


Again - the data is supposed to help you understand what's happening, not necessarily tell the whole story.

This is pretty damning, but there are a lot of factors - maybe there's something Jones is doing that is tipping the PA plays. Maybe it's on Barkley. Maybe the playcalling is too predictable. Whatever it is, it's taking a set of plays that should be a strength given Barkley's talent and turning it into a liability.
My biggest concern with Jones  
Marty866b : 11/26/2019 11:53 pm : link
Is that he doesn't feel or sense pressure. He's a good athlete who can run when a running lane opens up but his ability to move or slide in the pocket is lacking. You don't many plays of him moving well in the pocket to avoid the rush and make a throw down the field. I believe many of his fumbles are the result(beside horrible blocking)of not sensing pressure.
RE: RE: Tony Romo  
McNally's_Nuts : 11/27/2019 12:05 am : link
In comment 14693714 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 14693709 Joey in VA said:


Quote:


Was absolutely flummoxed by the C-2 shell for 3 years, until he wasn't. We used to own that mfer because that's all it took to get him confused. A rookie QB in game 10, 11 hasn't solved it? GTFO, he's a smart guy, he has tons to learn, arm talent and he can move, he'll be fine.



We've got to get him with a coach that understands where to throw the football and when. The play on the Barkley drop has been way too seldomly called. A pass to Barkley in 12 personnel on first down should be a fucking cheat code, but how often do we see it?


See, personally I think Shumur is that coach.


But he’s not a head coach. He’s an offensive coordinator. It’s like the Giants are alloted one good drive a game and then it’s 50 minutes of watching a monkey try to fuck the football.
Good link...  
bw in dc : 11/27/2019 12:08 am : link
and a good read. Like to hear more granularity on Jones's zone issues - specific downs, distances, which quads of the field, etc.

I wonder if the cutting edge analytics team at Jints Central tracks his data to possibly develop strategies to help offset these challenges for Jones...
RE: Makes you wonder about this part as well...  
V.I.G. : 11/27/2019 12:26 am : link
In comment 14693724 jcn56 said:
Quote:
maybe there's something Jones is doing that is tipping the PA plays. Maybe it's on Barkley. Maybe the playcalling is too predictable. Whatever it is, it's taking a set of plays that should be a strength given Barkley's talent and turning it into a liability.

It does look like Barkley doesnt sell the handoff, but rather full sprint to the dump off area. Anyone else see that?
Do they play much zone in college  
Ira : 11/27/2019 4:37 am : link
?
They do  
BigBlueCane : 11/27/2019 5:28 am : link
but in College practice time is more limited so schools struggle implementing it.

Clemson was probably the best defense Jones faced on a regular basis.
Good read  
hitdog42 : 11/27/2019 5:48 am : link
People ask for objective takes instead of hot takes. They get one and then whine because the title isn’t warm and fuzzy.
It’s actually good stuff- I’ve also noticed teams aren’t loaded up to stop Barkley in the same manner they used to sit back to stop Beckham. Makes it even more concerning that the run game sucks. Predictability likely a major issue
Missing the tight end and a real number one receiver is also making the windows a lot smaller to throw in zone
Barkley & Jones  
Dragon : 11/27/2019 8:19 am : link
Have a big hand in everything concerning this offense no idea why but Barkley is being stop even before he touches the ball or trying to break a tackle. Everyone can see no matter how good you are nothing good happens if the defense arrives the moment you touch the ball. Jones has become the only chance for the offense that’s not right we should see them working off each other it’s not happening.

I know we have Tate but teams are not afraid of being beaten deep by him so Jone is really short handed at WR. Slayton is an up and coming WR hopefully but he has tons still to learn most of all the complex and physical nature of the game each week. We have nothing else to speak of offensively everybody else is awaiting the axe man or trade for anything we can get. Engram is a major disappointment he is just never on the field and absolutely way to inconsistent from one week to the next. Loads of talent but to this day no demonstration that I want to be really good at TE. It’s a team effort presently this entire team is lacking everything you can name to be winners most of all knowledge of the NFL game.
RE: Good read  
Enzo : 11/27/2019 8:21 am : link
In comment 14693749 hitdog42 said:
Quote:
People ask for objective takes instead of hot takes. They get one and then whine because the title isn’t warm and fuzzy.

lol. well said.
I equate learning to be an NFL QB with learning to drive.....  
Tom [Giants fan] : 11/27/2019 8:21 am : link
when you first start driving, everything and everyone around you seem like they are going so fast. As you get more experience and see the same circumstances repeatedly, things appear to slow down even though they are going at the same speed. The same thing would seem to be true for an NFL QB. As he gets more experience behind the wheel (center), things will slow down for him and he will get even better.
Hold on one minute  
arniefez : 11/27/2019 8:27 am : link
The NFL is difficult for rookie QBs? Why didn't anyone ever tell us? Maybe teams should play their rookie QBs almost right away so they can figure it out ASAP? I wonder if that will help in year 2 and 3?
Not worried about this  
idiotsavant : 11/27/2019 8:32 am : link
With a great and often used run game + this type of qb:

you do play action, get either a wide open wr or an isolated wr on one defender, if covered, throw it away, or run it.

Plus a great D.

Jones is a puzzle piece move on to the next position.
Teams aren't playing a ton of man because we are so far behind  
Zeke's Alibi : 11/27/2019 8:33 am : link
in down and distance. We probably have the highest 3rd down to go in NFL. This is why we are playing a ton of zone. In this situation yo are going to get cover 2 man and zone looks. Well we aren't getting a lot of cover 2 man because DJ has shown he'll run for the first.

The biggest issue with this team on offense is we are getting zero from our oline in run game and we can't block long enough for guys to get through progressions in zone. Also we have a rookie QB who is naturally going to not always understand where he needs to go pre snap and needs to rely more on his post snap reads, combine that with the shitty oline and it isn't pretty.
Either a lot of people didn't read past the headline  
jcn56 : 11/27/2019 8:33 am : link
or BBI does an even worse job than the Giants at understanding analysis.
RE: Either a lot of people didn't read past the headline  
section125 : 11/27/2019 8:37 am : link
In comment 14693804 jcn56 said:
Quote:
or BBI does an even worse job than the Giants at understanding analysis.


No, either that or people are tired of over analysis and analytics. You know, can't see the forest for the trees....
The Rage at this Article  
Lambuth_Special : 11/27/2019 8:43 am : link
Is hilarious. It even notes that Jones has looked better than league average at attacking man coverage, so it's not like the author is trashing him.
The article was completely fair  
Metnut : 11/27/2019 8:53 am : link
and just gave an objective take. It's kind of hilarious to see the reaction to it here.

BBI is quickly turning into Extremeskins. Football team that has been awful for about a decade yet fans lash out at the media for any sort of negative take. Jeez.

My main takeaway from the article, aside from the board's reaction, is that this is something that can, and likely will be, improved upon. I'm baffled that we don't have a dedicated QB coach though. Only this ass backwards organization wastes a roster spot on Tanney rather than actually hiring a QB coach.

RE: RE: Either a lot of people didn't read past the headline  
Zeke's Alibi : 11/27/2019 8:53 am : link
In comment 14693810 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14693804 jcn56 said:


Quote:


or BBI does an even worse job than the Giants at understanding analysis.



No, either that or people are tired of over analysis and analytics. You know, can't see the forest for the trees....


This. It just says he sucks against zone and says he is better against man. It doesn't say why that is, instead it just posits questions why he is facing more zone than man to begin with.

And than it doesn't even get into why he sucks against pure zone. We'll gee maybe you think when you are constantly facing 3rd and 7+ and down two scores you can't just take the check down and live to fight another day. Look at the amazing TD to Tate last week, that isn't a high percentage play for sure and not many QBs are making that. We are facing a ton of man on first and second down to stop Saquon, hence the better numbers.

I'm just so sick of people using numbers and analytics without fucking context, it is getting exhausting.
RE: Teams aren't playing a ton of man because we are so far behind  
bw in dc : 11/27/2019 9:47 am : link
In comment 14693803 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
in down and distance. We probably have the highest 3rd down to go in NFL. This is why we are playing a ton of zone. In this situation yo are going to get cover 2 man and zone looks. Well we aren't getting a lot of cover 2 man because DJ has shown he'll run for the first.

The biggest issue with this team on offense is we are getting zero from our oline in run game and we can't block long enough for guys to get through progressions in zone. Also we have a rookie QB who is naturally going to not always understand where he needs to go pre snap and needs to rely more on his post snap reads, combine that with the shitty oline and it isn't pretty.


I basically implied this earlier. More granularity would be nice in the analysis - down, distance, personnel package, are there patterns/places on the field Jones favors, etc.

The other piece to me is does our team study this information to change tendencies and strategies. That’s the other part of analytics - seeing who you are and then being able to pivot to break tendencies...
RE: Poor coaching  
Gmen1982 : 11/27/2019 9:47 am : link
In comment 14693623 The_Boss said:
Quote:
-


I agree. When Mack went right past Solder for the strip, that was on coaching. Soldier is obviously still raw and needs to be coached. Jones needs to be coached to expect absolutely zero blocking as well. Great conclusion!
In that same Cardinals game, the pass that hit Engram in the face  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 11/27/2019 10:03 am : link
was against zone, so shit happens.

My 2 questions are:

1 - Are Jones' play-action numbers listed in the article from under center and shotgun combined? JMO, but the play-action fakes from the shotgun are hardly effective with this team. They have the 9th highest percentage of shotgun snaps with the 5th lowest amount of rushing attempts. They almost always run under center (74%) and always throw in the shotgun (82%) and they're in the shotgun all the time. Who's going to be faked?

2 (doesn't have anything to do with Jones) - Didn't the Giants draft Engram because they wanted a TE to attack the middle of the field due to all of the zone coverage they were seeing back then? Maybe I'm remembering that incorrectly.
Still way too early  
NINEster : 11/27/2019 10:30 am : link
to comment negatively on Jones.

Needs another year or two before judging.

Most young QBs are  
jlukes : 11/27/2019 10:52 am : link
It is why Bill B runs zone schemes against rookie QBs with great success.
This team has so many issues...  
BamaBlue : 11/27/2019 10:53 am : link
Daniel Jones reading zone defenses isn't even in the noise.
RE: RE: Either a lot of people didn't read past the headline  
jcn56 : 11/27/2019 10:55 am : link
In comment 14693810 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14693804 jcn56 said:


Quote:


or BBI does an even worse job than the Giants at understanding analysis.



No, either that or people are tired of over analysis and analytics. You know, can't see the forest for the trees....


Forest for the trees? This is pretty basic analysis and people are tired of it?

Should we just stop at 'fuck it, they all suck' and call it a day?
I often see people in the game threads saying  
Essex : 11/27/2019 11:12 am : link
well why are our receivers never open like that. This article might explain why because our QB is not exploiting zone coverages (usually the long passes in zone are when there is good protection). Now, again, I think DJ can correct this, but this article is convincing in terms of matching what I am seeing on the field.

Another thing is that with the absence of Shepard and Engram and even Tate for the first four games (taking a while to adjust to a new playbook) his route runners might be a cause of him being particularly poor in zone and it would have been nice to see the author account for route running in some way (like measure how good are the receivers reacting the route trees in a zone defense).

Whether or not this gets corrected, I think this is a useful article in terms of DJ's struggles in zone.
He's starting ro really burn  
Phil in LA : 11/27/2019 11:28 am : link
the blitz.
Rewatching some of the Bears plays  
Go Terps : 11/27/2019 2:25 pm : link
I'm not yet convinced that Jones is the long term guy.
RE: Rewatching some of the Bears plays  
English Alaister : 11/27/2019 2:42 pm : link
In comment 14694225 Go Terps said:
Quote:
I'm not yet convinced that Jones is the long term guy.


I don't see how anyone could be yet. The Rams and Eagles fans thought they had their guys and may yet but it looks different now.

I like Jones but it's just too early to christen him.

RE: Rewatching some of the Bears plays  
Essex : 11/27/2019 2:57 pm : link
In comment 14694225 Go Terps said:
Quote:
I'm not yet convinced that Jones is the long term guy.

I am a huge Jones guy, but I thought he looked very shaky in the Bears game. However, I would caution anyone from drawing too much from one game in any evaluation---Tom Brady just threw fourteen incompletions against the Eagles two weeks ago.
EA  
Go Terps : 11/27/2019 3:00 pm : link
I think with a high pick and a possible coaching (and hopefully GM) change on the horizon, the Giants should be open to drafting a QB if the incoming guy wants it.

I'm thinking specifically of Burrow. If Chase Young is taken and Burrow is sitting there for us, I'm fine with making the pick and trading Jones if that's what the new guy wants.
RE: EA  
AndyMilligan : 11/27/2019 3:07 pm : link
In comment 14694256 Go Terps said:
Quote:
I think with a high pick and a possible coaching (and hopefully GM) change on the horizon, the Giants should be open to drafting a QB if the incoming guy wants it.

I'm thinking specifically of Burrow. If Chase Young is taken and Burrow is sitting there for us, I'm fine with making the pick and trading Jones if that's what the new guy wants.


if he is rated as elite with immediate impact skills.. then i agree..
RE: Rewatching some of the Bears plays  
Sean : 11/27/2019 5:22 pm : link
In comment 14694225 Go Terps said:
Quote:
I'm not yet convinced that Jones is the long term guy.


What’s nice is he doesn’t have to be until he gets that monster contract. Jones is a nice player & nice bargain on this contract.

If we can get a coach who can utilize the talent better, he is someone we can win with imo. We aren’t married to Jones.
RE: EA  
bw in dc : 11/27/2019 5:36 pm : link
In comment 14694256 Go Terps said:
Quote:
I think with a high pick and a possible coaching (and hopefully GM) change on the horizon, the Giants should be open to drafting a QB if the incoming guy wants it.

I'm thinking specifically of Burrow. If Chase Young is taken and Burrow is sitting there for us, I'm fine with making the pick and trading Jones if that's what the new guy wants.


I approach Burrow very cautiously. He's a better prospect than Haskins, but like Haskins he may be a one hit wonder. Only played one full season in college, surrounded by superior talent (at least 6 guys on that offense will play in the NFL), and coached and developed beautifully by LSU OC Joe Brady.

I just prefer more experience, reps, starts.

I think he's worth the stretch using a relatively high pick, but there are concerns.

I've never been enamored with Jones, so I could live with your proposal. Especially if we would take a chance with Joe Brady as the HC... ;)
I like Jones too, but I'm not thinking about the next 10 years  
Go Terps : 11/27/2019 5:51 pm : link
I've read a lot here about how we have the QB for the next 10 or even 15 years. I'm not sure why anyone would say that...that means we're going to be willing to, at some point, make Jones the highest paid player in the NFL. I don't see that ever being a good deal.

The pocket presence and ball security are concerning. They were concerning with Eli too...but we lived with it because he delivered two miraculous titles. I don't think Jones will do the same.

The NFL now is as much about avoiding negative plays as it is creating positive ones. You can't be fumbling and taking sacks at this rate. Of course much of that is on the OL, but some of it is on Jones too. To me it has to be cleaned up immediately, because like I said above I'm not looking at the next 10 years...I'm looking at the next 3-4.

If you look around the league, 5 of the top 10 QBs (including the top 3) in QBR are in their rookie contracts: Jackson, Mahomes, Prescott, Watson, & Murray. This is not the NFL in 2000 or even 2010...the QB learning curve has been shortened and Jones has to be good NOW. Otherwise, move on.
Terps-  
Sean : 11/27/2019 5:58 pm : link
Looking at some of the prominent young QB’s:

2016: Goff & Wentz - both already paid

2017: Trubisky (will get cut likely); Watson & Mahomes will get paid

2018: Mayfield, Darnold & Allen will likely get 2nd deals. Rosen likely won’t. Jackson obviously will.

2019: Murray, Jones & Haskins - still too early

Out of all those names above, would you say only Watson, Mahomes & Jackson deserve the 2nd contract thus far? Would you say Jones is comparable to anyone else on that list not named Trubisky & Haskins?
This guy is taking heat for this article now on Twitter.  
Brown Recluse : 11/27/2019 6:03 pm : link
Apparently he’s full of shit.
Jones hasn't been as effective as has been let on  
Go Terps : 11/27/2019 6:03 pm : link
He's at 6.4 YPA...that's just really poor. If you calculate in sacks (to get his Net Y/A), he is second worst in the NFL ahead of only Trubisky...5.11 NY/A.

The Giants are only getting 5.11 yards per called pass play since Jones took over. By comparison, that number was 5.97 with Eli. The Giants are averaging under 21 PPG in Jones's 9 games.

There are obviously a lot of factors at play...the roster stinks and the coach and GM are a joke, but hard truth is Jones hasn't been as promising as we thought he might be. I don't consider his performance a bright spot on this bleak season.
...  
christian : 11/27/2019 6:06 pm : link
The Giants need so much more talent on offense before coming to a conclusion on Jones.

The WRs on this team do not create many pitch and catch opportunities, and they certainly aren't getting to spots in zones quickly.

If you want to get a good laugh, there are a number of threads before the season on how great the offensive weapons were, how Manning was going to easily eclipse 4k yards, and how Barkley was going to make it impossible for teams to sit back and play coverage.
RE: Terps-  
Go Terps : 11/27/2019 6:15 pm : link
In comment 14694356 Sean said:
Quote:
Looking at some of the prominent young QB’s:

2016: Goff & Wentz - both already paid

2017: Trubisky (will get cut likely); Watson & Mahomes will get paid

2018: Mayfield, Darnold & Allen will likely get 2nd deals. Rosen likely won’t. Jackson obviously will.

2019: Murray, Jones & Haskins - still too early

Out of all those names above, would you say only Watson, Mahomes & Jackson deserve the 2nd contract thus far? Would you say Jones is comparable to anyone else on that list not named Trubisky & Haskins?


Jones is probably closest to Trubisky at the moment. The team is just not functioning with him at QB. We know that's not completely his fault, but we need to start seeing it next year. Otherwise it's just cheaper and easier to start over than it is to commit to him. All we can say now is he has failed to elevate the team around him.

If the young guys yeah the only ones is even consider paying are Jackson, Mahomes, and Watson. But I'm just using the word consider. I don't think any of them is worth 15% of a salary cap. I don't think any player is.

The other QBs, if I'm their GM I'm already listening to offers.
RE: RE: Terps-  
AndyMilligan : 11/27/2019 6:33 pm : link
In comment 14694368 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 14694356 Sean said:


Quote:


Looking at some of the prominent young QB’s:

2016: Goff & Wentz - both already paid

2017: Trubisky (will get cut likely); Watson & Mahomes will get paid

2018: Mayfield, Darnold & Allen will likely get 2nd deals. Rosen likely won’t. Jackson obviously will.

2019: Murray, Jones & Haskins - still too early

Out of all those names above, would you say only Watson, Mahomes & Jackson deserve the 2nd contract thus far? Would you say Jones is comparable to anyone else on that list not named Trubisky & Haskins?



Jones is probably closest to Trubisky at the moment. The team is just not functioning with him at QB. We know that's not completely his fault, but we need to start seeing it next year. Otherwise it's just cheaper and easier to start over than it is to commit to him. All we can say now is he has failed to elevate the team around him.

If the young guys yeah the only ones is even consider paying are Jackson, Mahomes, and Watson. But I'm just using the word consider. I don't think any of them is worth 15% of a salary cap. I don't think any player is.

The other QBs, if I'm their GM I'm already listening to offers.


Jones is ahead of Trubisky already, imo. Not in experience but in tools displayed. I think it is obvious that Darnold is pulling ahead, for now. So in the last two years I rate Jones behind Lamar, Darnold, Baker, and Allen, for now. Darnold had mono which I think helps explain his rough mid-season. I had a serious case of mono, lost 30+ pounds and wasn't the same for over a year. I think mono is no joke and Darnold stalled because of it. Now he seems to be getting it.

I think Jones has potential to be in this tier but so far he has played poorly. Could be rookie growing pains, but he will need to add consistency to his repertoire. He hasn't shown it yet and ball security is a major issue. When it comes to projecting our guy we have to be cold and objective. So far he has shown flashes. There is reason for hope. But to say QB is not a worry is just ignorant. It's a worry until he proves he's the guy. The jury is still out.
christian  
Go Terps : 11/27/2019 6:35 pm : link
Quote:
The Giants need so much more talent on offense before coming to a conclusion on Jones.


This is true, but he's already essentially through his rookie season...which has basically been wasted by organizational incompetence. Goff and Wentz just got extensions after their third seasons.

Goff's and Wentz's respective teams had Super Bowl appearances by the end of their third seasons. Are the Giants going to make the Super Bowl in the next two years?

Jones has got to start showing something real ASAP. Otherwise his career is very quickly going to go down as Gettleman's and Shurmur's collateral damage. If I'm betting, Jones isn't our opening day starter in 2022.
Tony Romo  
jacob12 : 11/27/2019 6:37 pm : link
Tony Romo may have struggled early in his career, but he had many outstanding games against the Giants.

From 2006-2014 Romo led 27 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and overtime. He had the most in the NFL over that span, one more than Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan.

Seventy-five of Romos 248 career touchdown passes came in the fourth quarter, that's three more fourth quarter touchdown passes than Staubach and Aikman combined.

Romo was an extraordinary clutch quarterback.
RE: christian  
christian : 11/27/2019 7:11 pm : link
In comment 14694375 Go Terps said:
Quote:


Quote:


The Giants need so much more talent on offense before coming to a conclusion on Jones.



This is true, but he's already essentially through his rookie season...which has basically been wasted by organizational incompetence. Goff and Wentz just got extensions after their third seasons.

Goff's and Wentz's respective teams had Super Bowl appearances by the end of their third seasons. Are the Giants going to make the Super Bowl in the next two years?

Jones has got to start showing something real ASAP. Otherwise his career is very quickly going to go down as Gettleman's and Shurmur's collateral damage. If I'm betting, Jones isn't our opening day starter in 2022.


Absolutely. That's why it was so critical to get Jones playing ASAP. The only smart thing Shurmur did this year was bench Manning fast.

You only get 4 cheap years with a QB, the 5th year on a QB isn't remotely cheap.

I've come to think teams need to function on 4 year windows and be in a place position where they can reassess everything every 4 years.
Evaluating every 4 years makes sense..  
Sean : 11/27/2019 7:58 pm : link
which is why teams should always be drafting QB’s, probably every year but at minimum every other year.

There should always be an option in house when the QB contract year comes up.
I haven’t read  
darren in pdx : 11/27/2019 10:04 pm : link
this article but be skeptical of so-called sports journalists.

Jones has 7 TDs against zone coverage.
Jones six TDs before Chicago game - ( New Window )
Exactly what are Josh Hermsmeyer's credentials....  
Racer : 12/1/2019 11:29 am : link
...for analyzing NFL QBs? Annual word count doesn't imply expertise, I'm thinking, but would be happy to hear that he's been trained to properly evaluate the subject.
When he sets an all time rookie record for TDs this year  
Carl in CT : 12/1/2019 11:33 am : link
Everyone can step back and reflect that he has the goods.
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