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538: Daniel Jones Hasn’t Figured Out Zone Coverage Yet

V.I.G. : 11/26/2019 8:47 pm
Pretty fascinating article with statistical support
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Poor coaching  
The_Boss : 11/26/2019 8:50 pm : link
-
No QB coach on the staff  
Ben in Tampa : 11/26/2019 8:54 pm : link
Brilliant way to help your young franchise QB improve.
I’m not as  
Les in TO : 11/26/2019 8:58 pm : link
Fussed about this as a rookie. Defenses are more complex in the pro game. If he’s still struggling against the zone next year or the following year I will be concerned
For someone that hasn't  
section125 : 11/26/2019 9:03 pm : link
figured out zone coverage, he has 15 TDs and only 8 Ints and has not thrown one in two weeks....Eli did that knowing zone defense.
It's common  
Thankyoueli : 11/26/2019 9:09 pm : link
and zone coverage inherently generates more ints than man.

Not worried about this at all. Also keep in mind even advanced stats like this miss so so many variables, we dont know how much of it was isolated incidentals. This is why you cant quantify football on a sheet of paper.

I can guaruntee you Jones schematically knows the weak spots in cover 2, 3, 4, 6, 9 etc. (most of us do lol) it may just be a matter of needing to recognize it quicker or anticipate it presnap if you've done your homework. Then again, it may be a matter of coach giving him a play that doesnt have a route to counter the coverage the D is going to run. That's called losing the chess match, and is very very common is so many ways with this team lol now that I'm thinking about it, considering how often our receivers are completely blanketed across the board, that probably is the main cause of this.

It’s interesting that he’s outperforming against man  
Oscar : 11/26/2019 9:09 pm : link
And underperforming against zone when as the article says the league as a whole is the opposite. And also interesting that he’s doing well against disguised coverages that become man.

Why would he be struggling against zone if that’s easier for most? Article doesn’t really get into it although that’s also not really 538’s thing.
Constantly playing down and way behind down and distance is going to m  
Zeke's Alibi : 11/26/2019 9:10 pm : link
your numbers look like shit against zone. Guy has thrown 2 picks in the last 5 games. Talk about to clickbaity trash.
I haven't  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 11/26/2019 9:14 pm : link
looked at the article yet, but someone is actually arguing that a rookie QB hasn't quite figured out aspects of the game yet?

Wow. That's some deep stuff.
Daniel Jones  
AndyB : 11/26/2019 9:14 pm : link
That article is nonsense.

The success or failure of each of those pass plays is the product of dozens of variables, none of which is Jones's inability to solve the mysteries of zone coverage.
...  
HitSquad : 11/26/2019 9:18 pm : link
This kid has had 606 career snaps and has yet to start against the same NFL team twice.

He's still seeing everything for the first time. He's SUPER early into his career...like the QB version of a fetus.
RE: It’s interesting that he’s outperforming against man  
Thankyoueli : 11/26/2019 9:18 pm : link
In comment 14693641 Oscar said:
Quote:
And underperforming against zone when as the article says the league as a whole is the opposite. And also interesting that he’s doing well against disguised coverages that become man.

Why would he be struggling against zone if that’s easier for most? Article doesn’t really get into it although that’s also not really 538’s thing.


The guy is clearly just a numbers cruncher, and doesnt watch film to try to contextualize the numbers.

Numbers lie, the tape doesnt. We can go on and on for days with unaccounted variables that poke holes all over this claim. The truth is this guy really doesnt know how well Jones himself actually performs vs man coverage. The entire offense and playcallers having infinite impact on these numbers, really it's a team stat that he is trying to represent as an individual stat.

For someone who deals in analytics, he's clearly not very analytical... or he just doesnt know football.
RE: Daniel Jones  
Thankyoueli : 11/26/2019 9:20 pm : link
In comment 14693649 AndyB said:
Quote:
That article is nonsense.

The success or failure of each of those pass plays is the product of dozens of variables, none of which is Jones's inability to solve the mysteries of zone coverage.


Thank you, well said. The mysteries of zone coverages lol facepalm
RE: RE: It’s interesting that he’s outperforming against man  
Thankyoueli : 11/26/2019 9:21 pm : link
In comment 14693654 Thankyoueli said:
Quote:
In comment 14693641 Oscar said:


Quote:


And underperforming against zone when as the article says the league as a whole is the opposite. And also interesting that he’s doing well against disguised coverages that become man.

Why would he be struggling against zone if that’s easier for most? Article doesn’t really get into it although that’s also not really 538’s thing.



The guy is clearly just a numbers cruncher, and doesnt watch film to try to contextualize the numbers.

Numbers lie, the tape doesnt. We can go on and on for days with unaccounted variables that poke holes all over this claim. The truth is this guy really doesnt know how well Jones himself actually performs vs man coverage. The entire offense and playcallers having infinite impact on these numbers, really it's a team stat that he is trying to represent as an individual stat.

For someone who deals in analytics, he's clearly not very analytical... or he just doesnt know football.


I meant to say vs zone* coverage
RE: ...  
Raultney : 11/26/2019 9:28 pm : link
In comment 14693652 HitSquad said:
Quote:
This kid has had 606 career snaps and has yet to start against the same NFL team twice.

He's still seeing everything for the first time. He's SUPER early into his career...like the QB version of a fetus.

So true. A fetus whose mother is a heroin addict.
We need to give the kid some time.
I think  
Daniel in MI : 11/26/2019 9:30 pm : link
It is possible that Jones is having more trouble zone vs man, but it may be misattibution to say it’s Jones that is the issue. Maybe it’s hard, but why would he then be better at reading complex zone/man switches and hybrids? So i ask: How good are our zone beater schemes? And our WRs at getting open vs zone? Because there have been games when our O is out there the field feels 10 yards wide, but when our D is out there it feels 100 yards wide.
I question the article  
Archer : 11/26/2019 9:40 pm : link
You can’t look at stats in a vacuum
Jones may not play well against zone coverage for many reasons

The receivers do not get separation and do not move into open spaces
When at the game you see receivers giving up on plays
They stop their routes

The play calling against zones is questionable
You want to attack open spaces the intermediate and short routes should be there
The sideline is your friend
When was the last time we saw a back shoulder reception?
The lack of a deep threat allows the safeties to cheat

If the defense does not respect the run and can get pressure with a base 4 Jones is in big trouble there are six in coverage against 4 or 5


Finally if the line doesn’t hold up Jones will not do well against man or zone




I didn't like the pick @ the time.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 11/26/2019 9:46 pm : link
But Jones looks like he's got the tools to be a real good QB in this league. He's the least of my worries, provided this coaching staff doesn't completely F him up/this OL kills him.
538  
an_idol_mind : 11/26/2019 9:53 pm : link
is decent if you want polling aggregates, but the site's sports commentary is always pretty bad.
Audibles at the line of scrimmage  
Maijay : 11/26/2019 10:01 pm : link
I don't know if Jones has the knowledge or the permission to change a a play when he surveys the defensive alignment. I remember one play early in the game when the Bears were loaded to our right side.. Looking at defensive set up I hoped they weren't going that way but Jones seeing that called the play that way. Needless to say Barkley got stopped for no gain.

Watching Eli these many years there was no way he wouldn't have changed the play. Again, I wish Jones would have called something different.This could be just another factor in our poor offensive performance.
Where or who is  
NikkiMac : 11/26/2019 10:04 pm : link
The QB coach ? .... Shurmur was a center his claim to fame is developing Donovan McNabb big whoop how about a real QB coach....
RE: I haven't  
V.I.G. : 11/26/2019 10:26 pm : link
In comment 14693648 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
looked at the article yet, but someone is actually arguing that a rookie QB hasn't quite figured out aspects of the game yet?

Wow. That's some deep stuff.

Well maybe read the article.

It says that Jones has excelled in the statistically more difficult coverages while struggling against the easier - whether rookie or veteran.

It doesn't say why - but the data don't lie.

Whether it's the coaching, the receivers, the line, the rookie QB, or some combination of the above is what is up for debate.
V.I.G.  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 11/26/2019 10:43 pm : link
With all due respect, no shit.

Young quarterbacks struggle with NFL zone coverages. It's why defensive coordinators mix things up even on veterans.

I talked about this at the end of the preseason/entering the regular season. I specifically wrote how Jones was going to see coverages he didn't see in the preseason.

If this guy wrote an article that Jones WAS NOT struggling with zone coverage, that would be newsworthy.

This is like saying the sun rises in the East.
Everyone complains but his  
Carl in CT : 11/26/2019 10:56 pm : link
Raw QBR is better than Rodgers and 17th ranked QB in the league as a rookie. I’ll take it!!!!!!!!!
Tony Romo  
Joey in VA : 11/26/2019 11:02 pm : link
Was absolutely flummoxed by the C-2 shell for 3 years, until he wasn't. We used to own that mfer because that's all it took to get him confused. A rookie QB in game 10, 11 hasn't solved it? GTFO, he's a smart guy, he has tons to learn, arm talent and he can move, he'll be fine.
RE: Tony Romo  
Go Terps : 11/26/2019 11:28 pm : link
In comment 14693709 Joey in VA said:
Quote:
Was absolutely flummoxed by the C-2 shell for 3 years, until he wasn't. We used to own that mfer because that's all it took to get him confused. A rookie QB in game 10, 11 hasn't solved it? GTFO, he's a smart guy, he has tons to learn, arm talent and he can move, he'll be fine.


We've got to get him with a coach that understands where to throw the football and when. The play on the Barkley drop has been way too seldomly called. A pass to Barkley in 12 personnel on first down should be a fucking cheat code, but how often do we see it?
RE: V.I.G.  
jcn56 : 11/26/2019 11:30 pm : link
In comment 14693703 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
With all due respect, no shit.

Young quarterbacks struggle with NFL zone coverages. It's why defensive coordinators mix things up even on veterans.

I talked about this at the end of the preseason/entering the regular season. I specifically wrote how Jones was going to see coverages he didn't see in the preseason.

If this guy wrote an article that Jones WAS NOT struggling with zone coverage, that would be newsworthy.

This is like saying the sun rises in the East.


Did you read the article Eric? The author isn't trying to point out the obvious, he's mentioning a couple of points that are worth considering for Jones going forward and for the team in general.

Example:
Quote:
Yet these leaguewide base rates don’t fit Jones’s statistics. Jones is an enigma — bad at things that most QBs excel at, like completing passes on play-action, yet good at some aspects of the game that many quarterbacks find extremely challenging. Against disguised coverages, for instance — coverages that start out looking like man or zone but then switch mid-play — Jones has the highest completion percentage over expected in the league1 at 10.8 percent. It’s pure zone coverage that’s his kryptonite.



He's actually outperforming expectations on disguised coverages. Which, if you consider that his recognition of zone defenses should improve with time (assuming progression), is a very good thing.

Here's something else worth noting:

Quote:
Jones’s poor performance on play-action is a little strange because we might expect that teams would play more Cover 1 (a form of man coverage with a single high safety) against the Giants with Barkley in the backfield, a defensive formation that allows them to bring a safety down from deep coverage to help out against the run. Through Week 12, however, that hasn’t been the case. New York opponents are playing 50.4 percent man coverage vs. 49.1 percent zone, which is almost exactly league average. The team would likely benefit from opponents playing more man coverage to match up against Barkley, as Jones is completing passes 1.9 percentage points over expected against man, with a more respectable QBR of 71.5.


It seems that we assume teams are lining up to force Barkley to beat them, when it might actually be Jones they're more worried about.
RE: ERIC  
V.I.G. : 11/26/2019 11:33 pm : link
In comment 14693703 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
With all due respect, no shit.

Young quarterbacks struggle with NFL zone coverages. It's why defensive coordinators mix things up even on veterans.

I talked about this at the end of the preseason/entering the regular season. I specifically wrote how Jones was going to see coverages he didn't see in the preseason.

If this guy wrote an article that Jones WAS NOT struggling with zone coverage, that would be newsworthy.

This is like saying the sun rises in the East.


with all due respect, what you presuppose as the conclusion is exactly what the data doesn't support... exactly why they point out straight zone as the enigima.

Quote:
Against disguised coverages, for instance — coverages that start out looking like man or zone but then switch mid-play — Jones has the highest completion percentage over expected in the league at 10.8 percent. It’s pure zone coverage that’s his kryptonite.
well at least he has  
pjcas18 : 11/26/2019 11:36 pm : link
Alex Tanney to help him figure it out.
Makes you wonder about this part as well...  
jcn56 : 11/26/2019 11:42 pm : link
Quote:
More surprising, given generational talent Saquon Barkley at running back, is Jones’s QBR of 24.9 on play-action passes against zone, which places him 30th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks.


Again - the data is supposed to help you understand what's happening, not necessarily tell the whole story.

This is pretty damning, but there are a lot of factors - maybe there's something Jones is doing that is tipping the PA plays. Maybe it's on Barkley. Maybe the playcalling is too predictable. Whatever it is, it's taking a set of plays that should be a strength given Barkley's talent and turning it into a liability.
My biggest concern with Jones  
Marty866b : 11/26/2019 11:53 pm : link
Is that he doesn't feel or sense pressure. He's a good athlete who can run when a running lane opens up but his ability to move or slide in the pocket is lacking. You don't many plays of him moving well in the pocket to avoid the rush and make a throw down the field. I believe many of his fumbles are the result(beside horrible blocking)of not sensing pressure.
RE: RE: Tony Romo  
McNally's_Nuts : 11/27/2019 12:05 am : link
In comment 14693714 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 14693709 Joey in VA said:


Quote:


Was absolutely flummoxed by the C-2 shell for 3 years, until he wasn't. We used to own that mfer because that's all it took to get him confused. A rookie QB in game 10, 11 hasn't solved it? GTFO, he's a smart guy, he has tons to learn, arm talent and he can move, he'll be fine.



We've got to get him with a coach that understands where to throw the football and when. The play on the Barkley drop has been way too seldomly called. A pass to Barkley in 12 personnel on first down should be a fucking cheat code, but how often do we see it?


See, personally I think Shumur is that coach.


But he’s not a head coach. He’s an offensive coordinator. It’s like the Giants are alloted one good drive a game and then it’s 50 minutes of watching a monkey try to fuck the football.
Good link...  
bw in dc : 11/27/2019 12:08 am : link
and a good read. Like to hear more granularity on Jones's zone issues - specific downs, distances, which quads of the field, etc.

I wonder if the cutting edge analytics team at Jints Central tracks his data to possibly develop strategies to help offset these challenges for Jones...
RE: Makes you wonder about this part as well...  
V.I.G. : 11/27/2019 12:26 am : link
In comment 14693724 jcn56 said:
Quote:
maybe there's something Jones is doing that is tipping the PA plays. Maybe it's on Barkley. Maybe the playcalling is too predictable. Whatever it is, it's taking a set of plays that should be a strength given Barkley's talent and turning it into a liability.

It does look like Barkley doesnt sell the handoff, but rather full sprint to the dump off area. Anyone else see that?
Do they play much zone in college  
Ira : 11/27/2019 4:37 am : link
?
They do  
BigBlueCane : 11/27/2019 5:28 am : link
but in College practice time is more limited so schools struggle implementing it.

Clemson was probably the best defense Jones faced on a regular basis.
Good read  
hitdog42 : 11/27/2019 5:48 am : link
People ask for objective takes instead of hot takes. They get one and then whine because the title isn’t warm and fuzzy.
It’s actually good stuff- I’ve also noticed teams aren’t loaded up to stop Barkley in the same manner they used to sit back to stop Beckham. Makes it even more concerning that the run game sucks. Predictability likely a major issue
Missing the tight end and a real number one receiver is also making the windows a lot smaller to throw in zone
Barkley & Jones  
Dragon : 11/27/2019 8:19 am : link
Have a big hand in everything concerning this offense no idea why but Barkley is being stop even before he touches the ball or trying to break a tackle. Everyone can see no matter how good you are nothing good happens if the defense arrives the moment you touch the ball. Jones has become the only chance for the offense that’s not right we should see them working off each other it’s not happening.

I know we have Tate but teams are not afraid of being beaten deep by him so Jone is really short handed at WR. Slayton is an up and coming WR hopefully but he has tons still to learn most of all the complex and physical nature of the game each week. We have nothing else to speak of offensively everybody else is awaiting the axe man or trade for anything we can get. Engram is a major disappointment he is just never on the field and absolutely way to inconsistent from one week to the next. Loads of talent but to this day no demonstration that I want to be really good at TE. It’s a team effort presently this entire team is lacking everything you can name to be winners most of all knowledge of the NFL game.
RE: Good read  
Enzo : 11/27/2019 8:21 am : link
In comment 14693749 hitdog42 said:
Quote:
People ask for objective takes instead of hot takes. They get one and then whine because the title isn’t warm and fuzzy.

lol. well said.
I equate learning to be an NFL QB with learning to drive.....  
Tom [Giants fan] : 11/27/2019 8:21 am : link
when you first start driving, everything and everyone around you seem like they are going so fast. As you get more experience and see the same circumstances repeatedly, things appear to slow down even though they are going at the same speed. The same thing would seem to be true for an NFL QB. As he gets more experience behind the wheel (center), things will slow down for him and he will get even better.
Hold on one minute  
arniefez : 11/27/2019 8:27 am : link
The NFL is difficult for rookie QBs? Why didn't anyone ever tell us? Maybe teams should play their rookie QBs almost right away so they can figure it out ASAP? I wonder if that will help in year 2 and 3?
Not worried about this  
idiotsavant : 11/27/2019 8:32 am : link
With a great and often used run game + this type of qb:

you do play action, get either a wide open wr or an isolated wr on one defender, if covered, throw it away, or run it.

Plus a great D.

Jones is a puzzle piece move on to the next position.
Teams aren't playing a ton of man because we are so far behind  
Zeke's Alibi : 11/27/2019 8:33 am : link
in down and distance. We probably have the highest 3rd down to go in NFL. This is why we are playing a ton of zone. In this situation yo are going to get cover 2 man and zone looks. Well we aren't getting a lot of cover 2 man because DJ has shown he'll run for the first.

The biggest issue with this team on offense is we are getting zero from our oline in run game and we can't block long enough for guys to get through progressions in zone. Also we have a rookie QB who is naturally going to not always understand where he needs to go pre snap and needs to rely more on his post snap reads, combine that with the shitty oline and it isn't pretty.
Either a lot of people didn't read past the headline  
jcn56 : 11/27/2019 8:33 am : link
or BBI does an even worse job than the Giants at understanding analysis.
RE: Either a lot of people didn't read past the headline  
section125 : 11/27/2019 8:37 am : link
In comment 14693804 jcn56 said:
Quote:
or BBI does an even worse job than the Giants at understanding analysis.


No, either that or people are tired of over analysis and analytics. You know, can't see the forest for the trees....
The Rage at this Article  
Lambuth_Special : 11/27/2019 8:43 am : link
Is hilarious. It even notes that Jones has looked better than league average at attacking man coverage, so it's not like the author is trashing him.
The article was completely fair  
Metnut : 11/27/2019 8:53 am : link
and just gave an objective take. It's kind of hilarious to see the reaction to it here.

BBI is quickly turning into Extremeskins. Football team that has been awful for about a decade yet fans lash out at the media for any sort of negative take. Jeez.

My main takeaway from the article, aside from the board's reaction, is that this is something that can, and likely will be, improved upon. I'm baffled that we don't have a dedicated QB coach though. Only this ass backwards organization wastes a roster spot on Tanney rather than actually hiring a QB coach.

RE: RE: Either a lot of people didn't read past the headline  
Zeke's Alibi : 11/27/2019 8:53 am : link
In comment 14693810 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14693804 jcn56 said:


Quote:


or BBI does an even worse job than the Giants at understanding analysis.



No, either that or people are tired of over analysis and analytics. You know, can't see the forest for the trees....


This. It just says he sucks against zone and says he is better against man. It doesn't say why that is, instead it just posits questions why he is facing more zone than man to begin with.

And than it doesn't even get into why he sucks against pure zone. We'll gee maybe you think when you are constantly facing 3rd and 7+ and down two scores you can't just take the check down and live to fight another day. Look at the amazing TD to Tate last week, that isn't a high percentage play for sure and not many QBs are making that. We are facing a ton of man on first and second down to stop Saquon, hence the better numbers.

I'm just so sick of people using numbers and analytics without fucking context, it is getting exhausting.
RE: Teams aren't playing a ton of man because we are so far behind  
bw in dc : 11/27/2019 9:47 am : link
In comment 14693803 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
in down and distance. We probably have the highest 3rd down to go in NFL. This is why we are playing a ton of zone. In this situation yo are going to get cover 2 man and zone looks. Well we aren't getting a lot of cover 2 man because DJ has shown he'll run for the first.

The biggest issue with this team on offense is we are getting zero from our oline in run game and we can't block long enough for guys to get through progressions in zone. Also we have a rookie QB who is naturally going to not always understand where he needs to go pre snap and needs to rely more on his post snap reads, combine that with the shitty oline and it isn't pretty.


I basically implied this earlier. More granularity would be nice in the analysis - down, distance, personnel package, are there patterns/places on the field Jones favors, etc.

The other piece to me is does our team study this information to change tendencies and strategies. That’s the other part of analytics - seeing who you are and then being able to pivot to break tendencies...
RE: Poor coaching  
Gmen1982 : 11/27/2019 9:47 am : link
In comment 14693623 The_Boss said:
Quote:
-


I agree. When Mack went right past Solder for the strip, that was on coaching. Soldier is obviously still raw and needs to be coached. Jones needs to be coached to expect absolutely zero blocking as well. Great conclusion!
In that same Cardinals game, the pass that hit Engram in the face  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 11/27/2019 10:03 am : link
was against zone, so shit happens.

My 2 questions are:

1 - Are Jones' play-action numbers listed in the article from under center and shotgun combined? JMO, but the play-action fakes from the shotgun are hardly effective with this team. They have the 9th highest percentage of shotgun snaps with the 5th lowest amount of rushing attempts. They almost always run under center (74%) and always throw in the shotgun (82%) and they're in the shotgun all the time. Who's going to be faked?

2 (doesn't have anything to do with Jones) - Didn't the Giants draft Engram because they wanted a TE to attack the middle of the field due to all of the zone coverage they were seeing back then? Maybe I'm remembering that incorrectly.
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