Exemptions:
Playoff team last two seasons
(12 teams for sure) Pats, Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Chargers, Colts, Saints, Rams, Bears, Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks
Featured on Hard Knocks in last ten years
(7 teams) Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Falcons, Bucs, Browns, Raiders
First-year head coach
(1 team for now) Redskins
Teams not yet listed who are likely to make 2019-20 playoffs
(5) 49ers, Bills, Packers, Vikings, one of Steelers/Titans
So that leaves seven candidates:
Giants, Broncos, Panthers, Cardinals, Jaguars, Lions, the other of Steelers/Titans.
I think it's fair to project that at least two of the Panthers, Lions and Jags will fire their coach.
Steelers/Titans, Broncos and Cards will almost certainly not. That would make the Giants one of five teams without an exemption if they keep Shurmur, and would be the highest profile provided Pittsburgh is not in the mix. Broncos are close I guess.
Featuring on Hard Knocks would be John Mara's nightmare come to life. Might be enough to nudge Shurmur off the ledge.
For the record I love Hard Knocks and think it would be great if the Giants were featured but I know the owner is still operating under the illusion that the Giants are a serious organization that's somehow above this kind of thing.
I do. It's a good show