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NFT: Yankees pre-Winter Meetings doldrums thread

Dunedin81 : 12/2/2019 8:45 am
Other than some reputed interest in Blake Treinen, a tender decision for the A's tomorrow, not a lot going on in Yankee-land.
Writer from ESPN listed 10 non-Betts/Lindor trade candidates.  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 12/2/2019 9:02 am : link
The first one was interesting... Jon Gray from the Rockies.

He's under control for 2 more seasons and looking at his numbers, I think he has some more upside than Zack Wheeler. He's younger. His HR rate is actually solid for a Coors Field guy (xFIP is good over the past 3 seasons), his strikeout and groundball percentages are good, and his velocity was very good last season.

The article said he would be highly unlikely to re-sign with the Rockies, but there could also be some pressure to keep him in order to compete as Arenado has an opt-out soon.

Who knows... something to look into that would be cheaper and better than Wheeler.
I'd rather trade for Gray than overpay Wheeler  
Greg from LI : 12/2/2019 9:26 am : link
Supposedly the Rangers are interested in Andujar.
Link - ( New Window )
I like Gray...  
Dunedin81 : 12/2/2019 10:02 am : link
also Kyle Freeland as a potential bounceback candidate. Neither would be cheap, but both could prosper away from Coors and with better nerds feeding them data.
Profar dealt to the Padres...  
Dunedin81 : 12/2/2019 1:55 pm : link
a non-tender candidate for the A's, running on a shoestring as usual.

Also the Sox dealt Sandy Leon and his projected $2.8 mil award for roughly nothing.
Yankee  
mitch300 : 12/2/2019 1:57 pm : link
Hot stove starts tonight on YES. I think its 7 est.
Jose Peraza non-tendered  
Dunedin81 : 12/2/2019 3:30 pm : link
He'd be an interesting utility option, with above average defense at SS and 2B and 20+ SB speed, but he's a RHH so he doesn't address that issue for NYY.
If they go after Treinen then  
section125 : 12/2/2019 4:13 pm : link
Betances is not being pursued.

FWIW, been following View from 314ft and they have some really strange people that they think the Yanks should go for..I enjoy reading 314, but just a different take than Axisa.
Treinen would be 1/$8.5 or so  
Dunedin81 : 12/2/2019 4:18 pm : link
Betances would be anywhere from 2/$20 up to 4/$40, considering the going rate for relievers right now.
RE: Treinen would be 1/$8.5 or so  
section125 : 12/2/2019 4:28 pm : link
In comment 14700095 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
Betances would be anywhere from 2/$20 up to 4/$40, considering the going rate for relievers right now.


Yep, maybe more for Betances. I'd love to keep him, that achilles just is worrisome..
RE: Treinen would be 1/$8.5 or so  
rich in DC : 12/2/2019 5:29 pm : link
In comment 14700095 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
Betances would be anywhere from 2/$20 up to 4/$40, considering the going rate for relievers right now.


I think Betances will have to take a one-year, make-good deal.

Remember that he partially tore his achilles and did NOT have surgery to repair it. It is going to be a very hard sell to get him a multi-year deal at big money when he has an injury that can end his season in a single missed step. Not to mention that it is almost impossible to assess whether his shoulder is healed because he really didn't have much mound time before getting his new injury.

Betances has been a GREAT bullpen guy for the Yanks for MANY years, but given the situation, they really need to move on.
RE: I like Gray...  
rich in DC : 12/2/2019 5:33 pm : link
In comment 14699362 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
also Kyle Freeland as a potential bounceback candidate. Neither would be cheap, but both could prosper away from Coors and with better nerds feeding them data.


If you are going to target a Rockies SP, it would have to be Marquez- even if you have to overpay.

Just look at his home/road splits over the past several years. Add in what he did in 2018 with those terrible splits.

He's also signed for a number of years at decent money, so if you took on one of their overpriced relievers with him, the Rockies can get some spending room going forward.

It may just be me, but I would be willing to trade just about any prospect in the system- and maybe several top ones in a package- to get Marquez.
Mike Moustakas  
JPinstripes : 12/2/2019 5:37 pm : link
4 years 64M... What the heck do we think a DJLMs FA contract looks like next year - 4 years 80M+? I say extend him now and try to get a discount on AAV - the guy is that damn good.
just  
RasputinPrime : 12/2/2019 7:33 pm : link
win baby. Whatever it takes. 2020 or turn in the pinstripes.
RE: Mike Moustakas  
rich in DC : 12/2/2019 8:36 pm : link
In comment 14700285 JPinstripes said:
Quote:
4 years 64M... What the heck do we think a DJLMs FA contract looks like next year - 4 years 80M+? I say extend him now and try to get a discount on AAV - the guy is that damn good.


No, I don't think that's wise.

DJ has one other season with an OPS over 100 (2016, when he also got some MVP consideration)- all while in Colorado. While his 2015 and 2017 were generally good, there were nowhere near his 2016 or 2019 seasons.

That's the long way of saying- let's see him do it again before giving him big $$$.
RE: RE: Treinen would be 1/$8.5 or so  
Dunedin81 : 12/3/2019 8:42 am : link
In comment 14700261 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 14700095 Dunedin81 said:


Quote:


Betances would be anywhere from 2/$20 up to 4/$40, considering the going rate for relievers right now.



I think Betances will have to take a one-year, make-good deal.

Remember that he partially tore his achilles and did NOT have surgery to repair it. It is going to be a very hard sell to get him a multi-year deal at big money when he has an injury that can end his season in a single missed step. Not to mention that it is almost impossible to assess whether his shoulder is healed because he really didn't have much mound time before getting his new injury.

Betances has been a GREAT bullpen guy for the Yanks for MANY years, but given the situation, they really need to move on.


If Kyle Gibson can get 3/$30, I don't see Betances on a try-one. If he's close to the guy he has been his entire major league career, both his value to a team and his trade value would dwarf that of Gibson (I understand what WAR says, but in this case I think the metric fails to capture much).
NYY to meet with Cole & Strasburg reps this week...  
Dunedin81 : 12/3/2019 8:45 am : link
cue the optimism in advance of the heartbreak and the trade for Jose Urena.
Betances just isn't worth that much  
Ron from Ninerland : 12/3/2019 10:29 am : link
He was injured the entire season, he's suffered another serious and suspicious injury, in 2018 he struggled to go more than one inning and he's never been a closer. I can't see that he's even worth 1 x $5 million at this point. If his agent is whispering in his ear that he's due a multi year bonanza, it could be a long off season for him.
George King downplays those rumors...  
Dunedin81 : 12/3/2019 10:29 am : link
which came from Ken Rosenthal. Nothing really new in what he's saying.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Betances just isn't worth that much  
Dunedin81 : 12/3/2019 10:33 am : link
In comment 14700997 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
He was injured the entire season, he's suffered another serious and suspicious injury, in 2018 he struggled to go more than one inning and he's never been a closer. I can't see that he's even worth 1 x $5 million at this point. If his agent is whispering in his ear that he's due a multi year bonanza, it could be a long off season for him.


Drew Pomeranz got 4/$34 based on a half-season of great relief work. Look around.
The least that Betances  
section125 : 12/3/2019 10:35 am : link
gets is 1 yr/$10.
More likely 3 or 4 yrs at $10-$12.
I would be reluctant to give Betances that much too...  
Dunedin81 : 12/3/2019 10:56 am : link
but it's an imitative sport, and everyone wants a Josh Hader or a Zach Britton to plug in. Betances is the guy you can dream on being that crazy K/9 because he's a career 14.6. Someone will do it if NYY doesn't.
RE: RE: Betances just isn't worth that much  
Ron from Ninerland : 12/3/2019 11:43 am : link
In comment 14701002 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 14700997 Ron from Ninerland said:


Quote:


He was injured the entire season, he's suffered another serious and suspicious injury, in 2018 he struggled to go more than one inning and he's never been a closer. I can't see that he's even worth 1 x $5 million at this point. If his agent is whispering in his ear that he's due a multi year bonanza, it could be a long off season for him.



Drew Pomeranz got 4/$34 based on a half-season of great relief work. Look around.
Padres are the stupidest team in baseball. Still, its under $10 mill and they're getting a healthy pitcher. Betances hasn't really pitched in a year and there's no guarantee he'll be ready by April.
I think we are going to see  
RasputinPrime : 12/3/2019 12:58 pm : link
some hedging going on as we get closer to the next CBA. I wouldn't be surprised if there are alot of 3-4 year deals where we would otherwise have expected 1-2 or 4-6.
RE: I would be reluctant to give Betances that much too...  
RasputinPrime : 12/3/2019 1:02 pm : link
In comment 14701022 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
but it's an imitative sport, and everyone wants a Josh Hader or a Zach Britton to plug in. Betances is the guy you can dream on being that crazy K/9 because he's a career 14.6. Someone will do it if NYY doesn't.


Both Gardy and Betances could be scooped up by someone who is willing to give them more than we do. It's why I'm hoping we just dump the cash on Cole and get his answer ASAP.
I don't really have anything new...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 9:04 am : link
just bumping it for something to talk about. Also, 6/$120 for Wheeler is insane, if it actually goes there.
RE: I don't really have anything new...  
section125 : 12/4/2019 9:11 am : link
In comment 14702295 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
just bumping it for something to talk about. Also, 6/$120 for Wheeler is insane, if it actually goes there.


Wheeler for that can go elsewhere...

Seeing all the numbers coming off the books the next two years, I might be tempted to believe that Hal goes for Cole. With Severino locked up for a few years, I could see Tanaka leaving and Happ will be gone, one way or another. Keeping Paxton with Sevy and Cole would be pretty interesting.
"dollars will be there'  
Heisenberg : 12/4/2019 9:12 am : link
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
1h
Yanks had “very nice” introductory meeting with Gerrit Cole yesterday. No $ specifically discussed. They are selling him on being a Yankee and winning. Also key: “the dollars will be there.” The Yankees believe he’d thrive in NY but also believe he may prefer LA.


Music to my ears. Tired of the Yanks staying on the sidelines the way they have.
I think it's interesting that Brett Gardner hasn't signed yet...  
Tesla : 12/4/2019 9:12 am : link
Since there's an obvious mutual interest in his return.....or that we haven't even made a small signing yet. It's at least possible Cashman is saving all his pennies for a potential Cole deal, and if they have to they'd be willing to go with Tauchman (or a similar cheap player) in CF until Hicks returns in order to be able to sign Cole and stay under the $248M threshold.

That's probably not the case but unless Gardner is pushing for 2 years or a big raise (which I doubt) there shouldn't be any reason for the holdup here.

Also, remember that Betances' injury last year stemmed for a shoulder impingement. The shoulder healed but the impingement is still there, which means a good chance of re-injury on the shoulder. Plus obviously dealing with the partial Achilles Tear. I'd be surprised if he gets more than a one-year deal at this point.
I think they're serious about Cole  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 9:17 am : link
But it's also possible a team hits a price point the Yankees just can't match. The White Sox, potentially the Angels, even the Padres may be hell-bent on making a splash and if they are willing to dwarf what the Yankees can offer you let them make that mistake. NYY can absorb a one-year hit on the luxury tax, especially with everything coming off the books next year. They would really struggle to sustain a winner if they had five years of reduced pools, first round picks in the 35-40 range, and that's not including whatever comes out of the next CBA. And if they had all that and Cole either got hurt or fell off a production cliff you could be in for a Red Sox-style fall from grace, without the WS win that preceded it.
Tesla, you have a good point on  
section125 : 12/4/2019 9:20 am : link
Gardner. Strange that Cash hasn't inked him yet. Might be he wants two years and the Yanks only want one, plus $10 mill for Gardy is about 1/3 of what it takes to get Cole. Letting Didi walk is another 1/3 to 1/2 of Cole's expected take.

Question is can they survive 1/2 season with a combo of Tauchman and Wade in CF? I think Urshela, Torres/Estrada/Wade, DJ/Estrada?Wade, Voit/Ford/DJ is good enough in the infield. Probably a very good defensive IF especially with DJ at 1B.
Could be as simple as NYY waiting to see...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 9:21 am : link
if they need to free up more money to do it.
Agree that the upcoming CBA negotiations after the 2021 season....  
Tesla : 12/4/2019 9:26 am : link
is the 800 lb gorilla in the room here. The players are pissed about how things have gone over the last few FA periods, and likely realize they got taken to the cleaners in the last CBA - especially with the luxury tax pushing salaries down. I'm confident they are going to push hard for real changes in their favor.

I'm also confident the owners won't want to give an inch, and in fact will want even more revenue sharing and a tougher salary cap. I think the chances of a strike in 2022 are very high. And it will be impossible to guess what the new deal will look like.
People bitch about baseball's problems...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 9:42 am : link
but it's in a decent spot, all things considered. They could market players better, the game could certainly move faster, but on the whole they're making a lot of money and putting a substantial number of butts in the seats. A full-scale work stoppage that derails a season would cut that to shreds. Unlike basketball, which has crossover appeal and recognizable stars, baseball's product right now is the game itself, plain and simple. When that game isn't on the field, only the diehard fans will notice its absence.
RE: I think they're serious about Cole  
Heisenberg : 12/4/2019 9:48 am : link
In comment 14702312 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
But it's also possible a team hits a price point the Yankees just can't match. The White Sox, potentially the Angels, even the Padres may be hell-bent on making a splash and if they are willing to dwarf what the Yankees can offer you let them make that mistake. NYY can absorb a one-year hit on the luxury tax, especially with everything coming off the books next year. They would really struggle to sustain a winner if they had five years of reduced pools, first round picks in the 35-40 range, and that's not including whatever comes out of the next CBA. And if they had all that and Cole either got hurt or fell off a production cliff you could be in for a Red Sox-style fall from grace, without the WS win that preceded it.


I'm picking nits here but "Can't match" is the wrong choice of words, IMO. They can afford to match any contract offer from any team. There certainly could be a number they won't match. But they also could choose to change how they allocate salaries too. Cole at $35 million+ is more valuable to the team than a bullpen where all the guys are making 10 million+. In the absence of starters they wanted to sign, the Yanks have stocked the pen, they could reverse that if needed.
But it's not just about value...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 9:58 am : link
it's about allocation of risk. If they give 3 guys 3/$30 in the pen, there's a decent chance they get a stud, a solid reliever, and meh - be it injury, shit-the-bed, etc. It is unlikely that all three would be hurt or terrible. If they give Cole $30 (it'll take more than that, but for the sake of argument) they may get a stud whose value dwarfs that of the other three put together, but if he gets hurt they get no production for a year, eighteen months, maybe longer, and if he falls off - which he likely will at the end of the deal - they get production that could actually be a net detriment.
Very worried about signing Astros.  
BlueHurricane : 12/4/2019 10:06 am : link
We already know they cheat at the plate. Looking at Justin V rebirth there I wouldn’t be surprised they got some magic juice they are doctoring balls with.

#halfserious #halfjoking
RE: Very worried about signing Astros.  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 10:08 am : link
In comment 14702430 BlueHurricane said:
Quote:
We already know they cheat at the plate. Looking at Justin V rebirth there I wouldn’t be surprised they got some magic juice they are doctoring balls with.

#halfserious #halfjoking


Charlie Morton took the sauce with him when he left.
No doubt Dune is right that signing Cole is risky....  
Tesla : 12/4/2019 10:28 am : link
allocating so much $$$ in a staring pitchers is inherently risky since they are so frequently injured, and as he points out for long stretches of time.

Cole's been pretty healthy over his career though. I don't want to minimize the risk involved, it's very real....but I happen to think the risk is worth the reward since a true ace at the top of the rotation is the best way to improve this team right now.
It's been interesting to me  
Kyle in NY : 12/4/2019 10:45 am : link
that we haven't seen comments planted within the media that the Yankees are very cautiously pursuing the top free agents, like we saw last year. It seemed pretty clear from the jump last offseason that Harper and Machado just weren't going to be priorities beyond a certain price point.

We're seeing a lot more talk about being all in for the pitchers now. I'm a bit surprised, but very intrigued.
RE: I think it's interesting that Brett Gardner hasn't signed yet...  
LS : 12/4/2019 10:47 am : link
In comment 14702308 Tesla said:
Quote:
Since there's an obvious mutual interest in his return.....or that we haven't even made a small signing yet. It's at least possible Cashman is saving all his pennies for a potential Cole deal, and if they have to they'd be willing to go with Tauchman (or a similar cheap player) in CF until Hicks returns in order to be able to sign Cole and stay under the $248M threshold.

That's probably not the case but unless Gardner is pushing for 2 years or a big raise (which I doubt) there shouldn't be any reason for the holdup here.

Also, remember that Betances' injury last year stemmed for a shoulder impingement. The shoulder healed but the impingement is still there, which means a good chance of re-injury on the shoulder. Plus obviously dealing with the partial Achilles Tear. I'd be surprised if he gets more than a one-year deal at this point.

Didn't Betances have surgery to fix the impingement?
RE: No doubt Dune is right that signing Cole is risky....  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 11:28 am : link
In comment 14702462 Tesla said:
Quote:
allocating so much $$$ in a staring pitchers is inherently risky since they are so frequently injured, and as he points out for long stretches of time.

Cole's been pretty healthy over his career though. I don't want to minimize the risk involved, it's very real....but I happen to think the risk is worth the reward since a true ace at the top of the rotation is the best way to improve this team right now.


My stance on it is that based on age, performance, trajectory, health, velocity, etc, he is closer to Scherzer than guys like David Price, and that he'd be a solid bet. I worry a little about his use - 249 IP between regular and postseason this year, 213.1 last year, and short postseasons both times - but he's a big-bodied pitcher and should be able to handle it. I just think there's a "stupid money" price point that a rising team might be willing to offer just to make a statement (like the White Sox allegedly offering Wheeler what they have) and NYY should be leery about going there.
Rather, short offseasons...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 11:29 am : link
so less time for recovery.
Betances did not have surgery....  
Tesla : 12/4/2019 11:37 am : link
he simply rested the shoulder (than had a lat injury). The impingement is still in his shoulder. I can't see why it won't cause problems in the future.
Re: Stupid price point....  
Tesla : 12/4/2019 11:42 am : link
just out of curiosity, what's the highest everyone here would go for Cole?

I'd be willing to give him $40M for 8 years.(though I think we can get him for something close to $35M for 7 years). Anything above that and I'd walk.

For me, if we're willing to go $35M, what's an extra $5M per year? So we have to chaeper somewhere else (i.e. Tauchman over Gardner). I can live with that to get a true difference maker in Cole.
8/$320 is pretty rich...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 11:44 am : link
but A. it's not my money and B. it's a clear need, and there isn't another clear ace set to hit free agency any time soon.
RE: 8/$320 is pretty rich...  
Tesla : 12/4/2019 11:48 am : link
In comment 14702676 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
but A. it's not my money and B. it's a clear need, and there isn't another clear ace set to hit free agency any time soon.


What would your topline be (assuming a strong desire/mandate to stay under top luxury tax threshold starting in 2021 (if not 2020))?
I think 8/$300 would be about as high as I'd go  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 12:07 pm : link
...
Hamels to the Braves and Wheeler to the Phils...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 2:24 pm : link
starting pitching market starting to come together.
I'm starting to think  
BigBluesman : 12/4/2019 3:59 pm : link
Cole is going to happen. Indications are they will spend whatever they need to.

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2019/12/4/20995145/yankees-rumors-hot-stove-free-agency-gerrit-cole-strasburg-zack-wheeler

Get it done Cash!
My concern is that if they miss out on Cole...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 4:08 pm : link
and Stras goes back to Washington as expected, they could end up splurging for MadBum even though it's a terrible fit.
I'm starting to think Cole might happen, too.  
Dave in Hoboken : 12/4/2019 4:09 pm : link
Fingers crossed.
RE: My concern is that if they miss out on Cole...  
Strahan91 : 12/4/2019 4:09 pm : link
In comment 14703125 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
and Stras goes back to Washington as expected, they could end up splurging for MadBum even though it's a terrible fit.

It sounds like Madbum is going to sign before those guys from the reports today
I hope so...  
Dunedin81 : 12/4/2019 4:13 pm : link
I like him a lot, but a homer-prone lefty in the AL East is going to get demolished. 30 HRs pitching >1/2 his IP at the best pitcher's park in baseball.
RE: Betances did not have surgery....  
LS : 12/4/2019 6:09 pm : link
In comment 14702656 Tesla said:
Quote:
he simply rested the shoulder (than had a lat injury). The impingement is still in his shoulder. I can't see why it won't cause problems in the future.


Agreed. I have had surgery for impingement in both shoulders. Not sure why they didn't recommend the surgery.
Just for conversations sake  
Hsilwek92 : 12/4/2019 6:44 pm : link
Any chance the Yankees take a shot at Hader? I doubt they do but, stranger things have happened.
RE: RE: Betances did not have surgery....  
shyster : 12/4/2019 6:44 pm : link
In comment 14703269 LS said:
Quote:



Agreed. I have had surgery for impingement in both shoulders. Not sure why they didn't recommend the surgery.


There may be a concern that, in his case, surgery could make things worse.


Quote:
Let’s point out again that many people obtain a great benefit from arthroscopic surgery for bone spur removal. These are not the people we see. The people we see are the ones with the stories.

What is happening here? Why didn’t the surgery work for these people? Simply the bone spurs, for many people, are the only things holding the shoulder together. When you remove the bone spurs, the shoulder has “nothing to hang on.”



first do no etc. - ( New Window )
Didn't Betances lose a few MPH  
xman : 12/4/2019 7:04 pm : link
off his fastball last year?
RE: Didn't Betances lose a few MPH  
section125 : 12/4/2019 7:27 pm : link
In comment 14703316 xman said:
Quote:
off his fastball last year?


It usually takes Dellin about 4 weeks to get up to his 98 mph. I don't remember where he was in that game in which he got hurt, but his curveball is the more important pitch. The curve is his K pitch.
RE: Didn't Betances lose a few MPH  
shyster : 12/4/2019 7:28 pm : link
In comment 14703316 xman said:
Quote:
off his fastball last year?


Yes, his velocity was way down in spring training.

At first it was downplayed as nothing to be concerned about. He eventually got the MRI that showed inflammation at the bone spur.

The spur was not new. It had been detected in 2006.

nydn - ( New Window )
Pass on  
xman : 12/4/2019 7:59 pm : link
Betances
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