| "We are going to take a comprehensive and thorough review of our football operation to make sure we are structured for long-term, sustained success,'' Tepper said. "Our vision is to find the right mix of old-school discipline and toughness with modern and innovative processes. |
It's a good quote, and to be honest, an intriguing approach. It seems to be all the rage right now and I do applaud David Tepper for having the
conviction to make the unprecedented move of firing a coach like Rivera mid season to start the process right now, and not dragging his feet.
However, I have a combination of issues and questions about it, that I thought instead of spreading the conversation out over several threads, we could make a discussion that is a catch all.
I'll start with my questions regarding the quote.
1. Tepper wants an approach where old school toughness meets modern processes.
What does that look like? We have seen a couple of teams seemingly move towards this and have success in recent years, namely the Eagles and their last run, but do we have any proven example of sustained success using this model? The Eagles seem to be regressing to the mean right now. What does sustained success look like with this model, and how do we know that this perfect mixture is responsible for any given team's success? How do we know it wasn't just the stars aligning? For instance, the metrics helped the Eagles find Carson Wentz, but it was Nick Foles who won the Superbowl. Just one instance, but it makes me wonder.
2. It seems to me that the perennial playoff teams, the ones that seem to be in the playoffs year in, and year out, are the same perennial playoff teams that were doing it before the analytics craze. On that note, there was a thread yesterday where Sean asked a great question about the Steelers success, and why their seemingly traditional model of a family oriented business running the team is experiencing more success without having to change the model but so much. Terps posted a really interesting reply to it, I hope he doesn't mind me posting it here.
They've only had 3 head coaches since 1969, and each of those three coaches has won a Super Bowl. Pretty impressive. They've also had the same GM (Kevin Colbert) since 2000.
So we know they value continuity...but how did they arrive at these particular hires? Continuity for continuity's sake isn't necessarily a positive...does anyone think Shurmur would become a perennial divisional contender given 10 years on the job?
So let's take a quick look at their three key leadership figures these past 20 years.
GM Kevin Colbert
- 1984: BLESTO Scout
- '85-'89: Dolphins Scout
- '90-'00: Detroit Lions Pro Scouting Director
- '00-'19 (hired age 43): Pittsburgh Steelers Director of Football Operations, named the franchise's first ever GM in '10
HC Bill Cowher
- '85-'86: Cleveland Browns Special Teams Coach
- 87-88: Browns' Defensive Backs Coach
- 89-91: KC Defensive Coordinator
- 92-06 (hired age 35): Steelers head coach
HC Mike Tomlin
- 95: VMI WR coach
- 96: Memphis grad assistant
- 97: Arkansas State WR coach
- 98: Ark. State DB coach
- 99-00: Cincinnati U DB coach
- 01-05: Tampa Bay DB coach
- 06: Vikings DC
- 07-Present (hired age 35): Steelers head coach
So they hire young guys who haven't held a job at that level in the past, and once they have them they hold onto them.
To be a fly on the wall in their interview process... |
Now I'm not saying that there is no analytical, advanced metrics at play here... I've got to believe most teams use these tools in some form or another, but how much? And why do the Steelers manage to run a family business and still pump out a perinnial contender each year? Why don't they need a consulting firm to hire a coach?
Now, my issues with it:
Football, no matter how modern you make it, will always be a violent, emotional game played by human beings. The analytics may be able to tell you the probabilities of going for it on 4th down, or going for two, etc... But they will NEVER be able to tell you which Odell Beckham (for example) is going to show up every Sunday, or how a player reacts to injury, adversity, any physical/mental variable that can't be quantified.
Finally, Tepper is being praised sight unseen for his bold approach with firing Ron Rivera. I don't know for sure, but it has to be somewhat unprecedented to fire a coach who is 5-7 midseason, 2 games under .500 with 4 to play, and has been hamstrung by missing his starting QB all season. That really is a bold move. But what if Tepper is wrong? Tepper is a business man. Ron Rivera is a football lifer. What qualifies Tepper as a football mind? If Tepper wants to bring in these consultants, shouldn't he leave Ron Rivera in place until these said consultants can give him an evaluation too? What if Tepper is making a big mistake?
Anyways, thought this would make a good discussion. Look at me!
*Ironically, the Pats and Ravens are 2 of the few that should've been going for 1 nearly every time since Gostkowski/Tucker are basically automatic.
Tepper is his own man and what he feels he needs to do is rebuild the organizational structure top to bottom. He is Adding COO and CIO to the team as well. He knows this will take time and he has that on his side right now -IMO Cam is out, Norv and the rest of the coaches too. He let Ron go so he can start interviewing other people to build his structure which if anything like his business will be compartmentalized. Highly driven by his analytics team.
Tepper is his own man and what he feels he needs to do is rebuild the organizational structure top to bottom. He is Adding COO and CIO to the team as well. He knows this will take time and he has that on his side right now -IMO Cam is out, Norv and the rest of the coaches too. He let Ron go so he can start interviewing other people to build his structure which if anything like his business will be compartmentalized. Highly driven by his analytics team.
And this is why I feel Tepper might have been a bit overzealous. Why wouldn't he hold onto Ron, who seems to embody the traits that he's looking to build in the organization, and fire him so quickly without letting him be part of the evaluation process of these new consultants? Unless he already has them and they told him to? Or did he just want to wipe the slate clean?
See the link about the stability in the front office with personnel and scouting.
Steelers - ( New Window )
See the link about the stability in the front office with personnel and scouting. Steelers - ( New Window )
Very True -they use great scouting techniques and always find Steelers first -not just talented players. They have a model they look for. That is what Gets is trying to rebuild here and I think Ron is another important component to that.
Isn't he hiring consultants to determine that? Seems like a strange determination to make on his own. Like I said, David Tepper is a successful businessman. Whether he's a successful football evaluator remains to be seen, right?
Great process with people who don't think or understand or communicate a matter at hand, won't work.
Great people who are insightful and smart and hard-working AND humble, can create great processes - for themselves.
The idea that you can plug randos into a great process and have great results is idiocy.
In Tepper you have a guy at the very top of a profession that wrote the book on data analysis, analytics, and value based resource allocation. These are all great principles to apply to any business.
In Rivera you have a guy who wears his opposition to more technology in the game as a badge of pride.
This is much like the Yankees parting ways with Girardi. He's a good manager, and in fact a championship winning manager, but was he the right choice for the future of managing a profession on the vanguard of fundamental change? Cashman decided the answer was no.
The past isn't always an indication of the future.
The next 5-7 years of NFL football will be defined by big data ingestion, human movement mapping, predictive on-field, and predictive value analytics.
Do you want a guy who gave an "impassioned" speech that there should be less technology being used in the sport? Because the other 31 franchises are going to do it.
The data will avail a lot of things coaches and management already know, and avail things they don't. I want a program that's doggedly, aggressively, fundamentally, and culturally obsessed with seeking out every advantage.
Tepper doesn't have to be a great football mind...he has to be an organizer. Tepper's job now is going to be to find the football mind(s) to put his project together. He is approaching this exactly as Mara should: leave no stone unturned in trying to understand how to win and what people to hire to do it. Mara should be taking notes.
As for the Steelers, the key for them has been getting the hire right from the get go. Colbert, Cowher, and Tomlin weren't the right hires because they were given a long leash; they were given a long leash because they were the right hires. The question is, what process did the Steelers employ to hire them? Here's what we do know:
- All were hired at a young age
- All had no prior experience in the job for which they were hired
- All had no previous ties to the Pittsburgh Steelers
Compare those points to what the Giants did in their recent GM search:
- consulted Ernie Accorsi (previous ties and an antiquated perception of the NFL)
- interviewed Gettleman (previous ties), Abrams (already employed by Giants), Ross (already employed by Giants), and Riddick (the only outsider)
- hired Gettleman at age 67
What the Giants are doing is nothing like what the Steelers have done.
Jefferson, still thinking that a king was the greatest threat to freedom, sought a law like clockwork , so detailed that men would have no part and not be seduced by power.
Madison correctly and very wisely saw that it is and always will be impossible to have freedom or justice without wise humans having authority and discernment. Because no form of law can ever have enough complexity a ND nuance to reflect humanity and human life in all its madness .
Tepper doesn't have to be a great football mind...he has to be an organizer. Tepper's job now is going to be to find the football mind(s) to put his project together. He is approaching this exactly as Mara should: leave no stone unturned in trying to understand how to win and what people to hire to do it. Mara should be taking notes.
As for the Steelers, the key for them has been getting the hire right from the get go. Colbert, Cowher, and Tomlin weren't the right hires because they were given a long leash; they were given a long leash because they were the right hires. The question is, what process did the Steelers employ to hire them? Here's what we do know:
- All were hired at a young age
- All had no prior experience in the job for which they were hired
- All had no previous ties to the Pittsburgh Steelers
Compare those points to what the Giants did in their recent GM search:
- consulted Ernie Accorsi (previous ties and an antiquated perception of the NFL)
- interviewed Gettleman (previous ties), Abrams (already employed by Giants), Ross (already employed by Giants), and Riddick (the only outsider)
- hired Gettleman at age 67
What the Giants are doing is nothing like what the Steelers have done.
I have two problems with the bolded.
1. The 7-8-1 season in which they were 3-8-1, undermanned, and battled to a 4-0 finish to win the division at 7-8-1. Then, the actually won a playoff game. I get why this is lumped in as a losing season, but I consider this a win. So does Rivera, who cited it as the best coaching job of his career. Now you can make fun of that statement, or understand why he considers that one, and not the 15-1 season, as the best.
2. This season is being lumped in as a losing season. He was 5-7 at the time of his firing. 2 games under .500 with 4 to go, and without his starting QB. This is incomplete, and unfair to lump in as another losing season.
Gee, you are having that epiphany now?
It's more about leveraging situations that perhaps weren't historically leveraged. If the past 100 years of data says, and I am making this up, never punt from your own 40, but the numbers suggest that going for it more often than not will help you win games, why wouldn't you go for it? Head coaches are notoriously conservative in their decision making and that can often be counterproductive to a victory. It's not going to work every time, but in order for it to work, you need to buy into the system.
2. What makes you so sure the Steelers haven't been able to adapt with the times? When the XP got moved back and all of these articles started coming out about how it makes sense to go for two all of the time, the Steelers started experimenting with that. They have shown a propensity to buy into the analytics.
The results over 8+ seasons were mediocre. He got them close one time. I wouldn't say he did a bad job.
Hard to see Rivera as guy that they'll rue the day they moved on from. To me, there's something to be said for having some conviction and moving in a direction, even if it's just to break some staleness.
As a fan, it's what I want from my owner -- as soon as he's (unfortunately "they" in our case") aren't 100% convinced that a regime is the right one moving forward, make the change to something you believe in. You're not convicting them in court -- you don't need to prove anything beyond the shadow of a doubt.
Rivera can get the gold star for scraping into the playoffs in a losing season, and the benefit of the doubt because Cam is hurt.
Do you think that changes the calculus as to whether Rivera projects to be the type of coach who will succeed in the a rapidly evolving sport?
Tepper doesn't have to be a great football mind...he has to be an organizer. Tepper's job now is going to be to find the football mind(s) to put his project together. He is approaching this exactly as Mara should: leave no stone unturned in trying to understand how to win and what people to hire to do it. Mara should be taking notes.
As for the Steelers, the key for them has been getting the hire right from the get go. Colbert, Cowher, and Tomlin weren't the right hires because they were given a long leash; they were given a long leash because they were the right hires. The question is, what process did the Steelers employ to hire them? Here's what we do know:
- All were hired at a young age
- All had no prior experience in the job for which they were hired
- All had no previous ties to the Pittsburgh Steelers
Compare those points to what the Giants did in their recent GM search:
- consulted Ernie Accorsi (previous ties and an antiquated perception of the NFL)
- interviewed Gettleman (previous ties), Abrams (already employed by Giants), Ross (already employed by Giants), and Riddick (the only outsider)
- hired Gettleman at age 67
What the Giants are doing is nothing like what the Steelers have done.
Unfair comparison
You didn’t post who the Steelers consulted, because the info isn’t out there or who they interviewed. The result may seem different on the surface and I’m sure there are procedural differences, but we don’t know what they are... maybe the Rooney’s have a genetic eye for talent... how does that help us as Giants fans. Maybe, just maybe it’s the people in the Steelers organization who are making the appropriate decisions. Not their process.
See the link about the stability in the front office with personnel and scouting. Steelers - ( New Window )
Interesting read. Noted this:
"Sure, some will look at those names and scream nepotism. There’s one of the Rooney’s, Colbert (Kevin’s son), and Butler, son of Jack Butler, former Steeler and longtime BLESTO scout. But there’s a family component most teams don’t have either."
A la Mara and Boisture. I guess nepotism can work if the family members are competent!
Quote:
and I attempted to answer that yesterday, they have a history of excellent scouting. They were tremendous in the '70s at harvesting the talent in the southern schools.
See the link about the stability in the front office with personnel and scouting. Steelers - ( New Window )
Interesting read. Noted this:
"Sure, some will look at those names and scream nepotism. There’s one of the Rooney’s, Colbert (Kevin’s son), and Butler, son of Jack Butler, former Steeler and longtime BLESTO scout. But there’s a family component most teams don’t have either."
A la Mara and Boisture. I guess nepotism can work if the family members are competent!
That indeed jumps out. Dan Rooney Jr is a terrific director of player personnel.
Let's be honest -that's a real flagship franchise. Their history of winning over and over and over again, decade after decade, and doing it under any economic system is phenomenal.
The Steeler brand is one word - winning. And they take that very seriously and have built a tremendous culture and infrastructure to sustain it.
Which is how we got to where we are? Loosing ?
For sure, numbers count.
But idiots with numbers are still idiots.
Our problems are much more fundamental than weather or not we work probability.
In fact, some see probabilistic trends through common sense.
That is the model the Steelers continue to follow. Great drafting, knowing your identity and developing those players.
The problem with NYG is they draft horrible, let most of their players walk, and overspend on free agents.
It is bad football operations to continue to do that.
This offseason will be a huge off season, I think a few free agents will be brought in but they will hopefully be too level second contract guys....quality players. Dupree, Thompson and Simmons. Fix the defense.
Draft Chase Young.
The Steelers have been really good at drafting for a very long time. I think the common theme with its coaches is they are great leaders with Knoll more known as a superior x and o guy imo. All three have worked out with great success but let's take a look at the similarities:
Knoll: The Steel Curtain, outstanding running game and OL. QB capable of big play and showing up in big games.
Cowher: Great front 7 most years. Routinely ranked as Top 3 defense. Great running game and balanced offense.
Tomlin: Average to Very good defense. However, they became much more of a passing team but still could run with a good/very good OL.
So to me it is quite clear why the Steelers sustained success. Now look at the Giants in a fairly close timeframe.
Parcells: Dominant front 7, outstanding OL and running game and big play QB on play action.
Reeves/Fassel: Little better than average OL play and running game. Good to very good defense. Collins offered big play but not big game stature.
Coughlin: 2004-2012: Very good/outstanding OL. Great running game and big play QB who showed up in big game. Very good defense, great front 4.
McAd, Shurm, TC2013-19: Horrible OL, inability to run the ball, poor defense. It's all because of no analytics are being used!
All this talk of analytics is meaningless until the real issue is addressed.... Talent deficiencies in areas that have stood the test of time of being the staple to winning teams imo.
Now with a talented team with good coaching.....yes they should be part of the overall operation.
Rivera is certainly no Shurmur, but he is no Belichik either. He is a guy who coached for 9 years and have a very mixed bag of results. Ultimately every coach is hired to eventually win a Superbowl, and the Panthers were not trending that way at all.
You can like Rivera for coach of the Giants all you want. Everyone has their preferred higher. But let's admit what he is up until this point- an average NFL coach.
The flip side of this is that other clubs started to catch on. Proprietary intellectual information is difficult to keep confidential. So AC Milan gradually lost it’s competitive edge as the insight seeped out, and they are now a solid “B” ranked club, no longer a European championship contender.
Analytics insights into down and distance and clock management are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to that endeavor.
One opportunity that comes to mind is determining which players have the body to function within the violence of pro football and which can’t function consistently due to continuous injuries. Right now, the scouting around this question is hit or miss, based on past experience. It would be a big competitive advantage for any NFL club to gain more insight into what physical characteristics make a given player more likely to stay healthy and on the field. If I’ve had this thought, I’m sure professionals in NFL front offices have had it and are researching it. Are the Giants? Or should I say is the lone Giants quant guy getting insights into this and influencing the scouting?
(ILBx2, FSx2, Edge, NT)
Draft 2021 two versions:
"A" didn't fix OL with free agents and existing roster - draft OL early.
"B" DID fix it. Draft WR,RB,WR, TE etc.
As coach and GM that ought to motivate you for fixing the line without drafting it. To go for outcome "b".
Perfect example was the Pats pulling N’Keal Harry when he allowed the Texans CB to jump a route. At the time that they pulled him, they were incredibly short at WR and certainly could have used a 6’3 220lb guy like Harry. But they pulled him because he fucked up and they don’t put up with it.
Contrast that to Saquon repeatedly failing in pass protection, getting blown up by smaller guys and just out and out missing assignments. Do you think that Saquon’s performance would fly with Belichick? Parcels? Joe Gibbs?
That’s culture to me. It’s what separates all-star teams like the Browns from the Steelers, who have Duck Hodges and a bunch of fill-ins winning week after week.
Rivera is certainly no Shurmur, but he is no Belichik either. He is a guy who coached for 9 years and have a very mixed bag of results. Ultimately every coach is hired to eventually win a Superbowl, and the Panthers were not trending that way at all.
You can like Rivera for coach of the Giants all you want. Everyone has their preferred higher. But let's admit what he is up until this point- an average NFL coach.
This is it in a nutshell.
Do we want to strive for a good process and seeking out the right coach, or do we desperately just want to do better than Shurmur...
Posters on here want to hire Rivera predominately because he has been more successful than Shurmur.
Do you see the difference?
Tifo Football Podcast - October 21, 2019
Tifo football (their YouTube channel it's also an invaluable resource) interviewed Nikos Overheul of Statsbomb to talk about how analytics are applied in soccer.
Overheul talks about the various services his company provides, including manager recruitment to for certain goal statements (i.e. we're a midtable club on a shoestring budget looking to avoid relegation - find us a manager that fits that profile). It was a fascinating discussion...one idea I recall was the concept of building squads to specifically win the first 5 or 6 games on the schedule, with the thinking being you can't win a title in September but you can certainly lose it.
Check it out if you get the chance. There was a lot that's applicable to the Giants' current predicament.
It really has nothing to do with being better than Shurmur. I want Shurmur fired regardless of who replaces him
But I want Rivera. Those two things are independent of each other.
If the buffoons at Jints Central were forward thinking, they'd do the same thing. Fire Shurmur. Make whomever the interim coach. Detail what's going to occur in the off-season to fix this endless mess. And put everyone on notice that a full organization colonoscopy is about to take place...
But that's obviously wishful thinking. Let's just stay nice and steady. Keep rubbing the rabbit's foot, hanging hores shoes, crossing fingers, etc and hope, for the third time, in 10+ years we catch lightening in a bottle...