This weekend we have
CIN at CLE
WAS at GB
MIA at NYJ
CAR at ATL
DET at MIN
PIT at ARI
If the Giants lose out, they would be in the top 2. They get #1 if CIN wins a game. If they go 3-13, they would be in the top 4 (almost certainly top 3). If they go 4-12 they would be top 9, assuming no tie games. But that "9" is reduced by 1 for any DET win or any ATL win or (almost certainly) any WAS win.
Numbers in parentheses are NYG games back in SOS compared to each team. (Big negative numbers are good for NYG winning tiebreak and picking ahead).
1. CIN 1-11 clinched picking behind NYG in case of a tie
2. NYG 2-10
3. WAS 3-9 (-6.5) ## see below
4. MIA 3-9 (-7) #
5. ATL 3-9 clinched picking behind NYG in case of a tie
6. DET 3-8-1*
7. ARI 3-8-1*
8. JAC 4-8 (-3.5)
9. NYJ 4-8 (-6)
10. LAC 4-8 (-9.5) #
11. DEN 4-8 (-13.5) ##
## almost certainly pick behind NYG in case of a tie.
# likely to pick behind NYG in case of a tie
* NYG or DET or ARI would have to play a tie game for this tie to occur
In this listing, ties are broken using the stregth of schedule (SOS) based on the current records of all 16 opponents (division opponents count twice).
Lower SOS picks earlier. The NFL puts out draft order that doesn't include an opponents record in a team's SOS until that team plays that opponent.
TIEBREAK WITH WAS
The first tiebreaker for draft order is strength of schedule, not head-to-head. This is according to the NFL ops website. If the Giants end up tied with WAS, the team that picks ahead is the team that wins fewer games against the following two teams (i.e. the non-common
opponents). You can see the Giants are very likely to pick ahead.
NYG: ARI, TB. Currently 8.5 wins (15.5 losses). There's 8 more wins these teams can get.
WAS: CAR, SF. Currently 15 wins (9 losses). There's 8 more losses these teams can get.
Magic number is 2 (any combination of ARI loss or TB losses or CAR wins or SF wins) for NYG to take this tiebreak.
Come on Bengals!
it would be great if we got #1 and were able to trade down a spot or two and still land young
Trade back to the Bengals for #2 overall, 3 Rd Pick, 4 Rd Pick, 2021 3rd pick
Draft Chase Young
Come on Bengals!
Definitely.
It is needed to put talent on the roster that JR could not draft. Top 5 picks are needed. Just ask SF
Trade back to the Bengals for #2 overall, 3 Rd Pick, 4 Rd Pick, 2021 3rd pick
Draft Chase Young
I would need a 1 Rd pick next year to trade down out of the #1 spot.
The fuck is Ray supposed to do about that?
We could trade the pick to another QB hungry team... So if the Bengels want to ensure they get their guy, they will have to trade up.
If the Giants do get the #1 pick, I would be all in for some kind of trade down scenario.
Fear that we trade with a team that needs a QB. Its been done before where a team makes a trade to guarantee. If the Giants have the #1 pick they have to seriously look at the trade offers. Is Chase that much better than the next guy or package of guys? I dont know the answer but things like that could force the bengals to give up a few picks to guarantee the player. its been done before.
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but this shit every year is depressing.
The fuck is Ray supposed to do about that?
ray can go strap the pads on and get out there on specials, dammit!
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In comment 14705125 Jints in Carolina said:
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but this shit every year is depressing.
The fuck is Ray supposed to do about that?
ray can go strap the pads on and get out there on specials, dammit!
LOL.
Ray, just make sure you stretch first and stay hydrated. You'll be fine.
Mara better have a long look at the state of his franchise.
Hopefully you’re working on NYG playoff scenarios in 2021 sir.
Ray - thank you for doing this.
But I can guarantee you one thing if the Giants do get the number 1 pick there is no chance 0.0 that anyone in the organization has the skill to draft Young on a trade down for more picks. That will NEVER happen.
It's more likely they draft a WR or a Safety.
HUH?/ Nobody said trade up..
It should simply say
At 3-13 NYG would be top 3.
(Note that if NYG go 3-13, WSH or MIA would have to pick up a 4th win).
Well, considering the Eagles keep pulling horseshoes out of their asses every time we play them, that's two losses there. The 'fins and skins are crapshoots.
Yes it is but I'm glad Ray is actually tracking it for us until the team becomes somewhat relevant.
I personally think Cinci will beat the Browns 1 of their 2 meetings the next 4 weeks, and Cinci may even beat the Dolphins next week as well. I actually picked Cincy to beat the Jets for their first win and turned out to be right. I just feel like they had played a lot of one-score games all year and then Dalton was obviously going to come back with something to prove. Honestly Dalton trying to prove he can still play in this league is probably the biggest gift of all because he's going to be inspired to win and hopefully that rubs off on his teammates.
So the Giants might end up with the #1 pick even with winning a game down the stretch, is my point. I mean they'll lose to the Eagles twice, obviously, but I think they'll beat 1 of either the Skins or Dolphins. The thing we have to wary of is either of those team sneaking up ahead of the Giants (the Skins sneaking in front of us would be the worst). But as long as we don't go 2-2 we'll stay ahead of them in the race for last place.
At this point I will only consider this season a success if 1) we get Chase Young (most important), and 2) we fire Shurmur. At least let something good come from this shitty shitty season, please.
A cornerstone, a lynchpin, the keystone. He will make Lawrence and the other principal DL better. He'll make Carter and Ximines and Golden (if we resign him) better.
There are players who have impact beyond their own play, and he will in all likelihood be that guy.
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They know we aren't going to take a QB. And we are unlikely to trade past them and lose out on Chase. Unless there is an olineman that is ranked very close to Chase that would be there at 3.
Fear that we trade with a team that needs a QB. Its been done before where a team makes a trade to guarantee. If the Giants have the #1 pick they have to seriously look at the trade offers. Is Chase that much better than the next guy or package of guys? I dont know the answer but things like that could force the bengals to give up a few picks to guarantee the player. its been done before.
But the Bengals could safely assume wouldn't entertain a trade from another team and risk losing Chase... or as Gettleman would say, trading the pick for a bag of donuts.
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In comment 14705281 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:
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They know we aren't going to take a QB. And we are unlikely to trade past them and lose out on Chase. Unless there is an olineman that is ranked very close to Chase that would be there at 3.
Fear that we trade with a team that needs a QB. Its been done before where a team makes a trade to guarantee. If the Giants have the #1 pick they have to seriously look at the trade offers. Is Chase that much better than the next guy or package of guys? I dont know the answer but things like that could force the bengals to give up a few picks to guarantee the player. its been done before.
But the Bengals could safely assume wouldn't entertain a trade from another team and risk losing Chase... or as Gettleman would say, trading the pick for a bag of donuts.
And that would go right out the window when we take Burrow afterall.
That scenario HAS to be on the table. The Chargers took Eli and didn't want him. If you they call the bluff you tell 'em, "I wasn't bluffing." Because you definitely will be able to move that peice. If you miss out on Young, you're still going to get a huge package in return.
And the Giants should entertain any and all offers for #1 overall including MIA, ATL & LAC, who are all likely to be drafting Top 5-10.
Flipping picks with CIN at #2 and still landing Chase Young is likely the best possible outcome for the Giants
In 2004, NYG gave up RD3 (2004), RD1 (2005) and RD5 (2005) to move up from #4 to #1 for Eli
In 2017, CHI gave up RD3 (2017), RD4 (2017), RD3 (2018) to move from #3 to #2 for Trubisky
The offseason is the most enjoyable part of the year.
The combine and FA are the playoffs.
The DRAFT is the Superbowl
The Bengals would be moving up to prevent someone else from doing so to take Burrow. Who the Giants would pick lower in the draft wouldn't make any difference to them
I hate using stat lines without digging deeper, but a lot of Young's stats have been carved out vs really solid teams with solid OL play, and even vs double teams or chip help.
Over 32 games he has amassed 39 TFL and 30 sacks, starting his (true?) freshman year.
His sophomore year he had 5! passes defended, he can play in space. I've seen him play in pass coverage like a blanket...
This past season, despite the few games suspended, he has EXPLODED with 7 forced fumbles, and continued his ascent to "living and playing" in his opponent's backfield, on the OTHER SIDE of the LOS.
With solid DTs (or 3/4) DEs and interior players like Lawrence, Williams, Tomlinson, and Hill, you will have to try to handle him with a TE or RB or whatever it will be difficult to keep an OT and another player on him.
OK I am raving...
DG won't get fancy, he'll take Young straight up and never risk losing him.