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Leonard Williams Trade

Gettledogman : 12/6/2019 1:27 pm
Ok Lets discuss this in detail many are upset that we traded Giants traded a 3 and a 4 if signed for a former 1st rounder coming up on a potential contract if we sign him. Right? the argument is we should have waited until end of season Right?

If we don't sign we lose the 3 but get it back in compensation if he is signed somewhere else but still lose a 5th.

So why would the Giants do this. IMO its a no brainer -you get this guy who you think can become a building block on D and Locker room in the building and you see what he is all about -on the field and off. Good worker, good teammate, good character guy ?etc. and get a chance to really evaluate a guy who you potentially might give a big contract too. this is smart.

No other way to see it imo So in essence you traded a 3 and 4 for a 1st round talent. Also you already know if one of the other vets say a CB gets signed by another team you get back that 3 at least in compensation.
comp picks take place at the end of the round too  
Gordo : 12/6/2019 1:30 pm : link
so it's really a 4th.. it was a head scratcher for sure, especially that was one of the areas we spent a 1st rounder on in the last draft. plus we had committed previous high draft resources on the same position in BJ Hill and Dalvin Tomlinson

DT is a really deep part of the team, and i still feel like we would have been better off keeping snacks and drafting dlaw we need edge rushers, LBs and a safety
There will be no comp. Picks for Williams  
George from PA : 12/6/2019 1:35 pm : link
Unless....the Giants do not sign anyone with their 60 million.

Eli and Williams will be only loses.

I suspect the Giants will sign 2 decent players with the 60 million
Gordo  
Toth029 : 12/6/2019 1:36 pm : link
Snacks has fallen off this year with Detroit.
Why does this belief persist that if a FA signs elsewhere  
Mike from Ohio : 12/6/2019 1:37 pm : link
we get a third round pick? There is a formula the NFL uses to determine what comp picks are awarded that includes several factors including (I believe) free agents you sign.

You can't possibly evaluate this trade by concluding "well if he doesn't sign, we get the 3rd back."
Jack Rabbit  
Gettledogman : 12/6/2019 1:37 pm : link
is gone. Snacks was not someone you could build around IMO -too big a contract for an injured Vet
It only makes sense  
LS : 12/6/2019 1:37 pm : link
if the Giants planned to sign him. If not, it was a bad move. And signing him might even be a worse move.
My understanding is that the comp picks  
Rudy5757 : 12/6/2019 1:38 pm : link
work against each other. I believe that even if we lose Williams we may not get a comp pick because we have a lot of cap space and are most likely going to sign more big contract players than we lose. I may be off but I dont think we are going to get a comp pick if we dont sign him. And if we dont sign him and dont get a comp pick it may be the dumbest trade ever.

I like Williams as a player but he must be signed for this move to make any sense.
No matter how much cap space you have  
BillT : 12/6/2019 1:39 pm : link
It's hard, with all the other teams that have cap space, to sign more than one major FA. Having Williams in house gives you a good chance to sign him before FA. That way they can concentrate on another big acquisition in FA. Now, is that worth a 3rd and a 4/5? I'm not sure.
...  
BleedBlue : 12/6/2019 1:39 pm : link
forget the picks for ONE second. he is ALREADY our best DL.

he will be part of a solid front 7 once we add a couple more pieces. Im fine with the move....
For me, the problem is the cost of extending his contract  
JonC : 12/6/2019 1:43 pm : link
I hate the prospect of paying open market dollars to a player who's possibly a plus 3-4 DE, but playing inside. The big money needs to be earmarked for the impact Edge talent. While I like LW, at the end of the day he's not an impact talent in the NFL, so far.
I wonder why other rebuidling  
Enzo : 12/6/2019 1:43 pm : link
teams that are heading towards last place seasons don't employ a similar strategy (trading draft picks for pending free agents)?

We sure are lucky to have an innovative GM like Gettleman who has seemingly invented a new way to rebuild!
I wrote about this in another thread...  
Dnew15 : 12/6/2019 1:43 pm : link
any way you want to look at it - the run defense has improved dramatically since his arrival.

If the Giants continue to suck and can draft Chase Young - sign another edge rusher (maybe keep Golden as a situational pass rusher) - get Connelly back - and get some improvement from a young group of DBs like Beal, Ballentine, Baker, Love, Peppers - I hate to the ONE guy around here that has some optimism... BUT maybe - just maybe - the defense can turn it around next year....
You can extend him for $8-10M per, which is something I've read  
JonC : 12/6/2019 1:43 pm : link
as his comparison dollars, but $12M per I'm not onboard with.
RE: You can extend him for $8-10M per, which is something I've read  
jvm52106 : 12/6/2019 1:46 pm : link
In comment 14705303 JonC said:
Quote:
as his comparison dollars, but $12M per I'm not onboard with.


I agree with that and the possibility of losing him means we lost a draft pick just to have a guy for half a season in which we were already toast in. That would be the double whammy.
RE: I wrote about this in another thread...  
Gettledogman : 12/6/2019 1:48 pm : link
In comment 14705302 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
any way you want to look at it - the run defense has improved dramatically since his arrival.

If the Giants continue to suck and can draft Chase Young - sign another edge rusher (maybe keep Golden as a situational pass rusher) - get Connelly back - and get some improvement from a young group of DBs like Beal, Ballentine, Baker, Love, Peppers - I hate to the ONE guy around here that has some optimism... BUT maybe - just maybe - the defense can turn it around next year....


Excellent
As much as I like what LW...  
Dnew15 : 12/6/2019 1:49 pm : link
has done since he started playing in blue...the giants front office gave him A LOT of leverage by default when they dealt for him.

The pressure is definitely on the Giants to get a deal done and will probably have to over pay to keep him.
LW isn’t their best DL, Lawrence is.  
Section331 : 12/6/2019 1:51 pm : link
That said, he’s been pretty good at times, invisible at others. He was actually pretty good last week v GB, but a no show v Chicago.

In a vacuum, you can make the argument for trading a 3 & a 4 for LW, but this wasn’t done in a vacuum. For a 2-10 team, picks are vital, and you’ve just squandered 2 to get a guy looking at his big payday.

My biggest issue with the trade is the pressure it puts on DG to resign him. DG CANNOT let LW get away, and Team LW knows that. That is a terrible negotiating position.
RE: RE: I wrote about this in another thread...  
x meadowlander : 12/6/2019 1:53 pm : link
In comment 14705311 Gettledogman said:
Quote:
In comment 14705302 Dnew15 said:


Quote:


any way you want to look at it - the run defense has improved dramatically since his arrival.

If the Giants continue to suck and can draft Chase Young - sign another edge rusher (maybe keep Golden as a situational pass rusher) - get Connelly back - and get some improvement from a young group of DBs like Beal, Ballentine, Baker, Love, Peppers - I hate to the ONE guy around here that has some optimism... BUT maybe - just maybe - the defense can turn it around next year....



Excellent
The defense is close. I believe 4 players get them there

NEED:
- 2 very good edge rushers
- a good Bethea replacement
- 1 solid inside LB

ASSUMING:
- if not Jackrabbit, a shut down corner appears
- Young DB's all improve, Baker, Love, Ballentine, Beal
- CONNELY returns and is as good as he was
RE: You can extend him for $8-10M per, which is something I've read  
bw in dc : 12/6/2019 1:54 pm : link
In comment 14705303 JonC said:
Quote:
as his comparison dollars, but $12M per I'm not onboard with.


$12M? Are you kidding me? That's not even in the ballpark if LW has a competent agent.

The minimum, if we are lucky, is $15M. In reality, the LW Team will be starting at $17M.

This is one of the dumbest, most ill-conceived trades I've ever seen. People want a reason to fire Gettleman for incompetence, then this is it.
I've gone through the comps in this and the baseline is going to be Grady Jarrett.
bw  
JonC : 12/6/2019 1:58 pm : link
I'd like to say we won't be involved if the dollars go anywhere near $15M per ... but, also realize I could be asking too much given how DG's spent in UFA.
I agree that Jarrett is the right comparison  
cosmicj : 12/6/2019 2:09 pm : link
Jarrett got $68mm from the Falcons, avg of $17mm per year with $42mm guaranteed. I see no reason to think Williams wouldn’t see this as a floor, as LW has a much bigger rep than an under publicized player like Jarrett. This is what high quality linemen get in the current market.

The other point I’d make is that Williams was never going to hit the open market, given the reported interest from other teams. To have Williams on your team, you needed to give the Jets draft picks and then give LW a contract. Picks + $ , that is the package.

That doesn’t address whether Williams is or isn’t a good FA Target. But it does put to rest the “why not sign him in the open market” error.
Problems with the trade  
AdamBrag : 12/6/2019 2:10 pm : link
*We weren't going to compete this year, so we don't need him for this year
*As others have mentioned, if he leaves, we won't be getting a comp pick because we have so much money to spend in FA
*By not agreeing to a contract extension before the trade, the Giants lost all leverage in contract negotiations. Now, if the Giants don't sign him, the Giant's are the idiots who gave up a 3rd and a 5th for a half season rental on a non-competitive team. The Giants NEED to sign him to save face. I'll be very surprised if we don't pay him $15m+ per year.
*He's a good player, but he's not elite. This is a lot of trouble to go through, and a lot to give up, for someone who doesn't fill a need and isn't amazing.
I'd do it for Grady Jarrett  
Dnew15 : 12/6/2019 2:15 pm : link
type contract.

The per year $ are steep - but there's an opt out after 2021. With limited dead cap money (the Jarrett contract).

LW has been a difference against the run - there's no denying that. Next year the NYG will be young and relatively cheap. The Giants will be in position to pay him and they should.

I agree with you, however, that trading for him was dumb. Not sure why they just wouldn't wait until the end of the season and sign him w/o tipping their hand and having to over pay.
If we spend  
Thegratefulhead : 12/6/2019 2:16 pm : link
15-17 million on LW we are doomed to remain the laughing stock of the NFL. We are a punchline right now. I like LW, I do. He is a complimentary piece at best. It is 3rd down, the team needs a sack, can go get it? nope, so close though. Pay the guy that gets the QB, LW will never be that guy. He will be solid, he will do the dirty work. We have a bunch of those guys. We need someone that opposing teams have to scheme against. Teams gets well against us. We have no one to fear on defense. If we had a lockdown corner maybe we could blitz more and get home that way. We have nada, nothing, a bunch of fucking crap.
Another data point - Fletcher Cox  
cosmicj : 12/6/2019 2:17 pm : link
The Eagles need to decide on exercising a contractual option this offseason. If they do, Cox will have a cap hit of $23.8mm in 2020. You read that right: 23.8. That’s what an All-Pro caliber interior lineman costs in the NFL these days.

Aaron Donald’s cap hit in 2020: $25.0mm. That’s what a Hall of Fame level lineman costs.
RE: Problems with the trade  
Dnew15 : 12/6/2019 2:17 pm : link
In comment 14705347 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
*We weren't going to compete this year, so we don't need him for this year
*As others have mentioned, if he leaves, we won't be getting a comp pick because we have so much money to spend in FA
*By not agreeing to a contract extension before the trade, the Giants lost all leverage in contract negotiations. Now, if the Giants don't sign him, the Giant's are the idiots who gave up a 3rd and a 5th for a half season rental on a non-competitive team. The Giants NEED to sign him to save face. I'll be very surprised if we don't pay him $15m+ per year.
*He's a good player, but he's not elite. This is a lot of trouble to go through, and a lot to give up, for someone who doesn't fill a need and isn't amazing.


He was a need - the Giants couldn't stop the run prior to him arriving.

They stop the run in the same capacity that the best defenses in the league do - now.
RE: Another data point - Fletcher Cox  
Thegratefulhead : 12/6/2019 2:22 pm : link
In comment 14705358 cosmicj said:
Quote:
The Eagles need to decide on exercising a contractual option this offseason. If they do, Cox will have a cap hit of $23.8mm in 2020. You read that right: 23.8. That’s what an All-Pro caliber interior lineman costs in the NFL these days.

Aaron Donald’s cap hit in 2020: $25.0mm. That’s what a Hall of Fame level lineman costs.
both of those guys have to be accounted for on every play or they will fuck your shit up.
RE: RE: RE: I wrote about this in another thread...  
Thegratefulhead : 12/6/2019 2:24 pm : link
In comment 14705324 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
In comment 14705311 Gettledogman said:


Quote:


In comment 14705302 Dnew15 said:


Quote:


any way you want to look at it - the run defense has improved dramatically since his arrival.

If the Giants continue to suck and can draft Chase Young - sign another edge rusher (maybe keep Golden as a situational pass rusher) - get Connelly back - and get some improvement from a young group of DBs like Beal, Ballentine, Baker, Love, Peppers - I hate to the ONE guy around here that has some optimism... BUT maybe - just maybe - the defense can turn it around next year....



Excellent

The defense is close. I believe 4 players get them there

NEED:
- 2 very good edge rushers
- a good Bethea replacement
- 1 solid inside LB

ASSUMING:
- if not Jackrabbit, a shut down corner appears
- Young DB's all improve, Baker, Love, Ballentine, Beal
- CONNELY returns and is as good as he was
Close? I am not sure they could stop Howard from the Big Bang Theory.
RE: I agree that Jarrett is the right comparison  
bw in dc : 12/6/2019 2:26 pm : link
In comment 14705346 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Jarrett got $68mm from the Falcons, avg of $17mm per year with $42mm guaranteed. I see no reason to think Williams wouldn’t see this as a floor, as LW has a much bigger rep than an under publicized player like Jarrett. This is what high quality linemen get in the current market.



Just line their stats up side by side, too. They are eerily similar from tackles, solo tackles, sacks, FF, etc.

And from what I read, LW is a darling of the analytics guys. So I have to imagine Team LW is aware of that, too.

$17M is probably $18M as the the starting point...
I would rather the Giants took a chance on OL with the 66th pick  
sb from NYT Forum : 12/6/2019 2:29 pm : link
...than use it to spend big money on a good, not great, player that we already have a few of at that position.
Both 2007 and 2011  
Lines of Scrimmage : 12/6/2019 2:30 pm : link
had very strong front 7. In the NFC East stopping the run is a very big deal. Check out Wentz record when they can't run the ball. Dallas was built to run. Washington as well.

DG takes a lot of crap (some justified) but his mantra is what wins in the NFC East (to me it always has). I really think he will build a top 5 D just a year later than hoped.
RE: RE: I agree that Jarrett is the right comparison  
Thegratefulhead : 12/6/2019 2:31 pm : link
In comment 14705373 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14705346 cosmicj said:


Quote:


Jarrett got $68mm from the Falcons, avg of $17mm per year with $42mm guaranteed. I see no reason to think Williams wouldn’t see this as a floor, as LW has a much bigger rep than an under publicized player like Jarrett. This is what high quality linemen get in the current market.





Just line their stats up side by side, too. They are eerily similar from tackles, solo tackles, sacks, FF, etc.

And from what I read, LW is a darling of the analytics guys. So I have to imagine Team LW is aware of that, too.

$17M is probably $18M as the the starting point...
Kill me right fucking now if they sign him for 17M+ per. The Jets know more about him than anyone...
RE: I agree that Jarrett is the right comparison  
jcn56 : 12/6/2019 2:35 pm : link
In comment 14705346 cosmicj said:
Quote:
...

The other point I’d make is that Williams was never going to hit the open market, given the reported interest from other teams. To have Williams on your team, you needed to give the Jets draft picks and then give LW a contract. Picks + $ , that is the package.

...


I believe this is an assumption - there could easily have been interest from other teams who are playoff candidates that needed LW as a rental for a playoff run.

For those teams, he easily could have been worth a third if they felt his performance merited it. Bonus points to them if they had less cap space to spend in the offseason, where a departure by LW could help their comp pick chances.

For the Giants, anyone assuming a comp pick in return is also assuming the Giants are sitting on their cap dollars.
RE: RE: RE: I agree that Jarrett is the right comparison  
bw in dc : 12/6/2019 2:37 pm : link
In comment 14705382 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:

Kill me right fucking now if they sign him for 17M+ per. The Jets know more about him than anyone...


Look, maybe Gettleman has compromising of photos of LW and has a superior hand in this. Or LW is unexplicably kind and willing to concede on a team friendly contract.

But I just don't see it. The "best" outcome would be a franchise tag for DTs, which looks like it's going to be close to $16M.
I actually think the Giants are well positioned from a negotiating  
cosmicj : 12/6/2019 2:47 pm : link
Point of view, contrary to what many are saying. They are well able to tag Williams and absorb that sort of hit. (A typical contract would have a low 1st year cap hit vs the avg contract value or the tag value. The Giants can tag LW and ride it out.) Knowing this, Williams has every incentive to be constructive and negotiate a 4 or 5 year contract. My feeling is that he will get $18mm pr year and that the 2020 cap hit will be about $12mm. You can call me out when I turn out to be wrong :)
RE: I wrote about this in another thread...  
Johnny5 : 12/6/2019 2:48 pm : link
In comment 14705302 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
any way you want to look at it - the run defense has improved dramatically since his arrival.

If the Giants continue to suck and can draft Chase Young - sign another edge rusher (maybe keep Golden as a situational pass rusher) - get Connelly back - and get some improvement from a young group of DBs like Beal, Ballentine, Baker, Love, Peppers - I hate to the ONE guy around here that has some optimism... BUT maybe - just maybe - the defense can turn it around next year....

I agree with that. But I like Williams as a building block player, many here do not. That said I feel like we should have already had a deal in place.
RE: I actually think the Giants are well positioned from a negotiating  
jcn56 : 12/6/2019 2:52 pm : link
In comment 14705395 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Point of view, contrary to what many are saying. They are well able to tag Williams and absorb that sort of hit. (A typical contract would have a low 1st year cap hit vs the avg contract value or the tag value. The Giants can tag LW and ride it out.) Knowing this, Williams has every incentive to be constructive and negotiate a 4 or 5 year contract. My feeling is that he will get $18mm pr year and that the 2020 cap hit will be about $12mm. You can call me out when I turn out to be wrong :)


Unless Williams plays it like Kirk Cousins - takes his $16M franchise tag pay for this year, and dares them to do it again next year or let him walk. The Giants dysfunction, should it continue, would provide all the plausible deniability in the world should he have another up and down season. His only risk would be injury, and if he managed to do it for two seasons he'd have collected roughly $40M in guaranteed salary.
Jcn - williams could play out on a tag but that  
cosmicj : 12/6/2019 2:56 pm : link
Would be very risky, even reckless. Guaranteed cash for his long term contract would be in the realm of $45mm.
I don't like the trade but  
give66 : 12/6/2019 2:59 pm : link
How do we know a deal isn't already in place but just not announced?
RE: Jcn - williams could play out on a tag but that  
jcn56 : 12/6/2019 3:00 pm : link
In comment 14705404 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Would be very risky, even reckless. Guaranteed cash for his long term contract would be in the realm of $45mm.


It would definitely be risky - but it's not unprecedented. And he'd be able to pocket the same $45M if not more the following year, after depositing $16M for the season.
RE: I don't like the trade but  
jcn56 : 12/6/2019 3:00 pm : link
In comment 14705407 give66 said:
Quote:
How do we know a deal isn't already in place but just not announced?


It would have to be an agreement - an actual, signed deal would require league approval and would be public knowledge by now.
RE: I don't like the trade but  
Mike from Ohio : 12/6/2019 3:22 pm : link
In comment 14705407 give66 said:
Quote:
How do we know a deal isn't already in place but just not announced?


If it is a verbal only agreement, both sides (LW and the Giants) are idiots. If LW tears an ACL this week, do you think the Giants still sign him to the deal negotiated? If LW rips off 8 sacks in the next four weeks, do you think he does?

It is very, very safe to assume there is no binding deal in place.
as stated  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 12/6/2019 3:29 pm : link
you only acquire compensatory picks if you lose more qualified free agents than you sign.

With $60 million in cap space, we are not likely to do that.

We will be out two draft picks.
...  
christian : 12/6/2019 3:39 pm : link
LW is a fine player, but he's not in the universe of players to take a risk on.

Imagine you are LW and having spent 8 games on this team you decide this isn't the place for you. There are better teams with bigger pockets and there is a great offer out there, and the Giants franchise you.

No one seems to want to contemplate that he might not want to be here after getting a close look at this mess.
RE: ...  
jcn56 : 12/6/2019 3:46 pm : link
In comment 14705451 christian said:
Quote:
LW is a fine player, but he's not in the universe of players to take a risk on.

Imagine you are LW and having spent 8 games on this team you decide this isn't the place for you. There are better teams with bigger pockets and there is a great offer out there, and the Giants franchise you.

No one seems to want to contemplate that he might not want to be here after getting a close look at this mess.


I'm more afraid of the latter - that he's accustomed to this type of mess, and is comfortable in it. He'll take his paycheck, cash it and turn up on Sundays, just like he did with the Jets.
Here's the deal...  
bw in dc : 12/6/2019 3:58 pm : link
we need to unload one of the current DLs, especially if we get fortunate enough to grab Young.

Let's just part ways with someone and claw back at least one of those picks Resume wasted on LW.
The most unfortunate part about the OP on this thread  
Gatorade Dunk : 12/6/2019 4:13 pm : link
is that I've been convinced that this poster is actually DG, and nothing about the blatantly incorrect assumption on the comp pick calculus in that OP leads me to believe otherwise.
We traded  
Jan in DC : 12/6/2019 4:37 pm : link
a 3rd and 4th rounder to have him play 8 games with us this year when we were basically out of contention anyways. That's the definition of a bad move.
his wife wants to stay in the area, I understand  
Paulie Walnuts : 12/6/2019 5:06 pm : link
Giants will resign him,
I  
AcidTest : 12/6/2019 5:08 pm : link
was OK with the trade, but it was clearly a mistake. As others have frequently noted, we were already out of contention when the trade happened, he's more of a run stuffer than pass rusher, we could have signed him as a FA in the offseason, we essentially traded a second round pick when we have a ton of holes, and there is a real risk that we'll overpay him as a FA in order to justify the draft capital we spent to get him. It looks like another very poor FA move by DG.
Does Williams performance in a contract year justify the signing?  
Ivan15 : 12/6/2019 10:20 pm : link
Showed nothing with Jets or Giants.
RE: The most unfortunate part about the OP on this thread  
NoGainDayne : 12/6/2019 10:33 pm : link
In comment 14705515 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
is that I've been convinced that this poster is actually DG, and nothing about the blatantly incorrect assumption on the comp pick calculus in that OP leads me to believe otherwise.


Oh jeez thanks a lot, now I’m reading the gettledogman posts in DGs voice and I want to rip out all my hair
RE: Does Williams performance in a contract year justify the signing?  
DelZotto : 12/7/2019 1:56 pm : link
In comment 14705867 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
Showed nothing with Jets or Giants.


He's a 4-3 DE
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