Is it guaranteed that the 3rd round pick in the trade is the Giants own pick? Aside from the possibility of a comp pick, could the Giants make another trade before the draft and acquire a later 3rd round pick? I’m asking if anybody from the team or league or the Jets has publicly said exactly what’s going on.
The trade stipulates a third round pick
It does not state that the Giants are trading their third round pick
We do not see the actual language of a trade but there can be conditions attached
The Giants cannot trade a pick they do not have but a condition of the trade could be that the Giants have the option to substitute another third round pick in lieu of their pick
This could be a compensatory pick
this isn't as bad as that, at least. right?
looking for some fucking sliver lining regarding any of the moves the giants make at this point
The trade stipulates a third round pick
It does not state that the Giants are trading their third round pick
We do not see the actual language of a trade but there can be conditions attached
The Giants cannot trade a pick they do not have but a condition of the trade could be that the Giants have the option to substitute another third round pick in lieu of their pick
This could be a compensatory pick
Total speculation.
this isn't as bad as that, at least. right?
looking for some fucking sliver lining regarding any of the moves the giants make at this point
Remember 2011-2015 when we picked guys 5 years straight who never even came close to being starters? Or even good backups? Jernigan, Hosely, Moore, Bromley, Odigizua? Pretty sure this use of a 3rd round pick is at least better than that.
Davis Webb in 2017 followed suit so amazingly 2016's pick of Darian Thompson and him playing well for the Cowboys this year is the only thing that broke that streak.
So to me the silver lining is that the production we're getting from 3rd round picks since 2018 (LW included since he's an actually starting level player) is still light years ahead of the majority of the first part of this decade.
Just skipping the middle man and giving the picks to other teams isn't improvement.
Just skipping the middle man and giving the picks to other teams isn't improvement.
Is acquiring a starting level player an improvement if they bring him back (and don't overpay)?
And I know Reese got fired, the point isn't to continue to beat that dead horse but to point out that 3rd round picks aren't exactly guaranteed production. A lot of those players he chose were highly ranked (not Jeff Hatch).
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weren't amounting to anything.
Just skipping the middle man and giving the picks to other teams isn't improvement.
Is acquiring a starting level player an improvement if they bring him back (and don't overpay)?
And I know Reese got fired, the point isn't to continue to beat that dead horse but to point out that 3rd round picks aren't exactly guaranteed production. A lot of those players he chose were highly ranked (not Jeff Hatch).
Are you asking if getting a starter in exchange for picks and FA money is a fair value proposition, then no.
Leonard Williams isn't Khalil Mack. He's not Minkah Fitzpatrick (who at least had more years on his rookie deal). He's a good player who was going to be available in FA. There was demand for him as a rental, likely to teams that needed him *as a rental*.
So no - giving up a 3rd, a 4th (to beat the dead horse, both picks near the top of the round) AND pay FA dollars to get Williams here isn't fair value. It was widely questioned by pundits, for good reason.
I'm not 100% sure on this math relative to market inflation but I think they could tag Williams and still have as much room as they had in 2016 to use (or carry over) when they signed 3 of the 8 most expensive FA's on the market.
That's why I think the "FA Dollars" thing is a strawman. If he doesn't want some kind of FMV extension then tag him. And then rinse and repeat next year. Keep him, tag him, trade him, let him walk possibly for a similar comp pick. He'll remain an asset as long as he's a starter without any crazy long term $.
Bad teams almost never trade for people in that first category. I'm not making it up - see if you can make a list of guys that bad teams have acquired for picks in their walk years.
The possible use of a franchise tag (or transition tag) - for a player who has been average throughout the course of 5 years in the NFL is ridiculous.
And the whole thing is made worse by the fact that of all the areas of need on the defense, interior DL was probably at the bottom of the list.
It was a bad move.
His availability in FA would have been very much uncertain, and if he did get there teams have no control over where players go - except by offering tremendous amounts of money.
I am FAR happier getting him for another 1 year deal (tag) than had we actually overpaid him via FA knowing that in the former scenario we could trade him again next deadline or let him walk as a FA if he doesn't fit the new coaching staff as opposed to being locked in sight unseen. Even if there's a little value lost in that exchange and we only recouped 1 similar pick to what was given up I think this was a case where the "rent to own" strategy made sense. But we can agree to disagree on that.
If you're asking whether or not I'd rather have the 53rd overall pick, and taken the chance on Leonard Williams being available in FA - I'd have to say yes, without question.
The fact that you can't rattle off a few teams who have done something similar before should tell you what you need to know here. I can't think of a single one, but my memory might be failing me.
He's the best interior DL after Lawrence? Not saying much. PFF likes him now? PFF hasn't for pretty much the duration of his career, and he's been here 3 games.
You don't care where on the line he goes? Well, that's resource allocation for you. The team still has no edge rushers, and now they might be paying a tag to Leonard Williams in an attempt to not lose the picks traded for him.
The Jets are laughing all the way to the bank. When your execs are getting hoodwinked by the Jets, it's time to move on.
We already know that DG opened a dialogue with Williams agent to get a deal done. If they are able to re-sign him at a fair number before he hits the open market as a result of dealing for him it had some benefit. His pressure analytics are well above average and he's still young.
Gettleman seems worse at these later picks - Ximines and Carter invisible, BJ Hill bad enough they had to trade Williams to have a shot at signing him, Lauletta's not even on the team anymore, and he's just giving up and handing them away now.
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weren't amounting to anything.
Just skipping the middle man and giving the picks to other teams isn't improvement.
Is acquiring a starting level player an improvement if they bring him back (and don't overpay)?
And I know Reese got fired, the point isn't to continue to beat that dead horse but to point out that 3rd round picks aren't exactly guaranteed production. A lot of those players he chose were highly ranked (not Jeff Hatch).
I'm not 100% sure on this math relative to market inflation but I think they could tag Williams and still have as much room as they had in 2016 to use (or carry over) when they signed 3 of the 8 most expensive FA's on the market.
That's why I think the "FA Dollars" thing is a strawman. If he doesn't want some kind of FMV extension then tag him. And then rinse and repeat next year. Keep him, tag him, trade him, let him walk possibly for a similar comp pick. He'll remain an asset as long as he's a starter without any crazy long term $.
This is all kinds of wrong. You are just saying that we have lots of cap space, why not waste it?
The franchise tag for his position will likely be ~$17.5 million. That's a ton for Leonard Williams.
Aside from that, by giving up picks for someone we still need to sign as a FA, that means, even if we sign Williams, we are sacrificing the opportunity of having a contributor on a rookie contract. Instead of paying someone ~$800k per year, we are going to need to find a FA who winds up making $4m-$5m per year. Suddenly, by overspending on FAs like Williams and needing to sign FAs for more money then draft picks, we will run into cap problems.
These are the types of moves that make us mad in May when we are either complaining about lack of talent on the team or lack of depth on the team, or both.
Williams has been one of the most dominant forces against the run since being drafted, ranking among the top in several different run-defense metrics. Among 98 interior defenders with at least 500 run-defense snaps since 2015, Williams’ run-defense grade of 88.2 ranks 15th. In addition, he also has the third-most run stops (116), third-most tackles for no gain or loss (53), and fifth-most counts of making the first contact on a runner (183) at the position. It’s safe to say that Williams’ ability to move bodies and disrupt run plays is evident after four years in the NFL.
Given his dominant run defense, Williams could jump into elite territory if he just improved as a pass rusher. Although he’s coming off a career-high pass-rush grade of 71.4 last season – ranking 19th out of 129 interior defenders – he still has yet to earn a pass-rush grade above 75.0 for a single season, something that guys like Aaron Donald and Fletcher Cox can probably do in their sleep.
There's no question it's an unorthodox trade given our year was already over and LW himself seems to be a bit of an unknown. But if he turns out to be similar to Linval Joseph or his contemporary Eddie Goldman (i.e. a very good but not great player who does the dirty work) I think it will have proven to be a decent move.
To be clear I don't know if he's that good or not yet, that's why I'd like to tag him and find out next year. And if he's not then maybe recoup at least 1 of the 2 picks given up.
Leonard Williams' continued improvement as a pass-rusher could take the Jets defense to a whole new level in 2019 - ( New Window )
And you have zero - not one - pass rusher worth a damn under contract in 2020.
That's not someone you tag - and it's definitely not someone you trade multiple picks for the right to tag.
Letting Linval Joseph go is a good example - he ended up exceeding expectations after the DL coaches in Minny found a problem with his stance. The Giants had a replacement in Hankins, who performed at a similar level to Joseph. People scream about not retaining Joseph - the real problem was that they squandered the money they saved when they moved to Hankins.
this isn't as bad as that, at least. right?
looking for some fucking sliver lining regarding any of the moves the giants make at this point
No. It’s worse.
The outrage at the thought of paying him not that much more than he made this year (as opposed to a big FA deal) is a little bit overdramatic IMO - especially since it comes with the pretty universally recognized benefits of contract year motivation and 0 long term risk.
Giving up a 3rd/4th will suck if the player sucks - like Ogletree has. But if he's good I think this is a good move (and he already looks a lot better than Ogletree did from day 1 here). Unlike Ogletree there's also a chance to mitigate the suckage by trading him again next year (if they tag) or getting a comp pick, but since we know they want to keep him that's not worth discussing in depth.
Nothing else. That's the end of it. He is an 8 game rental you traded a top 70 pick for in a year when you're 2-10. That's embarrassing.
The rest of the NFL GMs are going to vote Gettleman executive of the decade if he keeps this up.
And you have zero - not one - pass rusher worth a damn under contract in 2020.
That's not someone you tag - and it's definitely not someone you trade multiple picks for the right to tag.
Letting Linval Joseph go is a good example - he ended up exceeding expectations after the DL coaches in Minny found a problem with his stance. The Giants had a replacement in Hankins, who performed at a similar level to Joseph. People scream about not retaining Joseph - the real problem was that they squandered the money they saved when they moved to Hankins.
Agree to disagree. They let Joseph go and the had to pay Snacks almost twice as much a few years later, and he was a damn good player even here before the Vikings coaches so they almost definitely would have won a few more games in the years in between.
Also Joseph walked in 2014, the same year they drafted Jay Bromley in the 3rd round. I'd gladly have parted with that pick and the extra $ to have just kept Joseph.
Maybe our new coaching staff can change LW's stance.
The outrage at the thought of paying him not that much more than he made this year (as opposed to a big FA deal) is a little bit overdramatic IMO - especially since it comes with the pretty universally recognized benefits of contract year motivation and 0 long term risk.
Giving up a 3rd/4th will suck if the player sucks - like Ogletree has. But if he's good I think this is a good move (and he already looks a lot better than Ogletree did from day 1 here). Unlike Ogletree there's also a chance to mitigate the suckage by trading him again next year (if they tag) or getting a comp pick, but since we know they want to keep him that's not worth discussing in depth.
What's the point of this, though? They sent away damon harrison for nothing, only to watch the run defense nose dive, then turn around and trade a 3rd round pick for the same type of player, who will cost just as much as Snacks and also not solve the glaring issue of a nonexistant pass rush.
If you told me we could get an age 26 snacks for a 3 & 4 right now, I'd be all for that too.
I don't know if LW is as good as Snacks though, that's why I'd tag him for a year to hopefully find out before spending bigger. And if he has another year like this one and doesn't make a big difference then hopefully there will be similar trade offers out there.
Bad teams almost never trade for people in that first category. I'm not making it up - see if you can make a list of guys that bad teams have acquired for picks in their walk years.
The possible use of a franchise tag (or transition tag) - for a player who has been average throughout the course of 5 years in the NFL is ridiculous.
And the whole thing is made worse by the fact that of all the areas of need on the defense, interior DL was probably at the bottom of the list.
It was a bad move.
The idea that we have fellow fans who are defending the move by pointing out that we gave up picks (plural) for the right to franchise tag a guy who failed to live up to his draft status and was such a disappointment that his former team was willing to let him walk tells you exactly where we are with DG.
If this was such a savvy move, where were the teams that were willing to pay Landon Collins in FA? Surely they would have ponied up some draft capital in exchange for the right to tag him instead, right?
Fucking lunacy.
We already know that DG opened a dialogue with Williams agent to get a deal done. If they are able to re-sign him at a fair number before he hits the open market as a result of dealing for him it had some benefit. His pressure analytics are well above average and he's still young.
That can't be accurate. I've heard from several posters on here that DG's drafts have been excellent, so I can't imagine the drop off to McIntosh could be significant at all.
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he's a guy that's been average, with a few spurts of good in his career. Even if he were an elite run defender, which he's not - you supposedly have that guy already in Lawrence.
And you have zero - not one - pass rusher worth a damn under contract in 2020.
That's not someone you tag - and it's definitely not someone you trade multiple picks for the right to tag.
Letting Linval Joseph go is a good example - he ended up exceeding expectations after the DL coaches in Minny found a problem with his stance. The Giants had a replacement in Hankins, who performed at a similar level to Joseph. People scream about not retaining Joseph - the real problem was that they squandered the money they saved when they moved to Hankins.
Agree to disagree. They let Joseph go and the had to pay Snacks almost twice as much a few years later, and he was a damn good player even here before the Vikings coaches so they almost definitely would have won a few more games in the years in between.
Also Joseph walked in 2014, the same year they drafted Jay Bromley in the 3rd round. I'd gladly have parted with that pick and the extra $ to have just kept Joseph.
Maybe our new coaching staff can change LW's stance.
Linking Joseph w/ Snacks is like claiming that they had to sign Carlos Emmons because they traded away Sam Huff.
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In comment 14705532 jcn56 said:
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weren't amounting to anything.
Just skipping the middle man and giving the picks to other teams isn't improvement.
Is acquiring a starting level player an improvement if they bring him back (and don't overpay)?
And I know Reese got fired, the point isn't to continue to beat that dead horse but to point out that 3rd round picks aren't exactly guaranteed production. A lot of those players he chose were highly ranked (not Jeff Hatch).
this argument totally misses the point. The point is why trade a 3 round pick (+) pick for the “opportunity” to apply the transition or franchise tag or be the first in line to negotiate and write a big check when the guy is a free agent. Who does that?
Resume Dave.
If this ends up in Transition Tag territory, and LW leaves because we don't exercise the right of first refusal, then this trade should result in Resume having blood work and a urinalysis to test for various issues...
We all know the jury is still out on the last two drafts. Next year we'll get a better read on the 2018 group. The 2019 class are rookies.
It's like innocent before being proven guilty.
You have to assume DG's drafts are excellent until proven otherwise...
If you're asking whether or not I'd rather have the 53rd overall pick, and taken the chance on Leonard Williams being available in FA - I'd have to say yes, without question.
The fact that you can't rattle off a few teams who have done something similar before should tell you what you need to know here. I can't think of a single one, but my memory might be failing me.
He's the best interior DL after Lawrence? Not saying much. PFF likes him now? PFF hasn't for pretty much the duration of his career, and he's been here 3 games.
You don't care where on the line he goes? Well, that's resource allocation for you. The team still has no edge rushers, and now they might be paying a tag to Leonard Williams in an attempt to not lose the picks traded for him.
The Jets are laughing all the way to the bank. When your execs are getting hoodwinked by the Jets, it's time to move on.
Fucking spot on post. This should be stickied.
Some of us drink on Friday evenings...
:-)
How DG likes to remind people about all of the super bowl teams he's helped build...
And these are the blockbuster ones...the middle range and smaller deals show fairly consistent fuck-ups.
Resume Dave is going to need to update his fairly soon...
Linking Joseph w/ Snacks is like claiming that they had to sign Carlos Emmons because they traded away Sam Huff.
Linval Joseph signed with the Vikings March 11th 2014 after starting 47 of the previous 48 games here the 3 seasons prior (including SB season).
In 2014 the Giants DT's were Hankins yr 2 + Mike Patterson + Jay Bromley rookie year.
In 2015 the Giants DT's were Hankins yr 3 + Cullen Jenkins. + Jay Bromley yr 2.
On March 9th 2016 the Giants signed Snacks to a contract sizably bigger than what Joseph had gotten 2 years earlier. If you don't think they wish they could have gotten a 'do over' on letting him walk because our DT's mostly sucked after he left, I don't know what to tell you. Clearly they felt DT was a big hole because of how much they paid Snacks (who I consider a good signing).
Great fucking point.
No team is believed to have offered more than a third.
Giants had several suitors for S Landon Collins before trade deadline - ( New Window )
If he plays out this season, he will have started in 55 of the 64 games in his four seasons.
It was usually thought to be a good idea to have a veteran on hand when you had a lot of inexperienced kids around. Does it matter if he's overpaid when he fits comfortably under the cap? That's the way of the NFL. Some are underpaid (like many on their rookie contracts) and some are overpaid.
To me, letting him go would just be adding another hole in the defense that has to be filled.