If the Giants go 2-14, they pick top 2. If they finish 3-13 they pick top 3 (almost certainly top 2).
If they finish 4-12 they pick top 7. If they finish 5-11 they almost certainly pick top 9.
1. CIN 1-12 clinched picking behind NYG in case of a tie
2. NYG 2-11 or 3-10 depending on Monday night result. They would be listed 2nd either way.
3. WAS 3-10 clinched picking behind NYG in case of a tie (see below for explanation)
4. MIA 3-10 (-7.5) ##
5. DET 3-9-1*
6. ARI 3-9-1*
7. JAC 4-9 (-5)
8. ATL 4-9 clinched picking behind NYG in case of a tie
9. NYJ 5-8 (-4.5)
10. LAC 5-8 (-11.5) ##
11. DEN 5-8 (-15) ##
12 CAR 5-8 (-15.5) ##
13. PHI 5-7 (-5) ## would move ahead of all 5-8 teams if they lose to NYG
## almost certainly pick behind NYG in case of a tie.
# likely to pick behind NYG in case of a tie
* NYG or DET or ARI would have to play a tie game for this tie to occur
In this listing, ties are broken using the stregth of schedule (SOS) based on the current records of all 16 opponents (division opponents count twice).
Lower SOS picks earlier. The NFL puts out draft order that doesn't include an opponents record in a team's SOS until that team plays that opponent.
TIEBREAK WITH WAS
The first tiebreaker for draft order is strength of schedule, not head-to-head. This is according to the NFL ops website.
The tiebreak was decided by the 2 non-common opponents:
NYG: ARI, TB. Have 9.5 wins (16.5 losses). There's only 6 more wins these teams can get.
WAS: CAR, SF. Have 16 wins (10 losses).
TIEBREAK WITH MIA
Excluding common opponents:
Giants opps have 53 wins. There are 8 automatic pickups in future games, giving them 61. They have 13 possible pickups.
Miami opps have 61 wins. There are 9 automatic pickups in future games, giving them 70. They have 9 possible pickups.
why?
NYG beat MIA
MIA gets weaker SOS than NYG (very unlikely)
CIN goes 1-2 or 0-3.
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But the Giants clinch the 2 if they only beat WAS or MIA.
why?
Phrased incorrectly. Pick no lower than 2 (could still pick 1). Correct?
Giants pick 1 if CIN goes 2-1 or 3-0.
Top 2 if they beat only WAS.
Top 2 if they beat only PHI.
Essentially it doesn't matter who they beat, although it opens up a very slight possibility of picking 3rd if the win comes vs MIA.
Top 2 if they beat only WAS.
Top 2 if they beat only PHI.
Essentially it doesn't matter who they beat, although it opens up a very slight possibility of picking 3rd if the win comes vs MIA.
that is slight because that would mean Miami losses out and they would get another tie break win from Bengals who the giants don't play. That would mean the giants schedule would have to win 9 more games vs uncommon opponents then miami. Since they both played the same division this year that is literally impossible.
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Giants pick top 3 (almost certainly top 2) if they beat MIA.
Top 2 if they beat only WAS.
Top 2 if they beat only PHI.
Essentially it doesn't matter who they beat, although it opens up a very slight possibility of picking 3rd if the win comes vs MIA.
that is slight because that would mean Miami losses out and they would get another tie break win from Bengals who the giants don't play. That would mean the giants schedule would have to win 9 more games vs uncommon opponents then miami. Since they both played the same division this year that is literally impossible.
Yes we'd have to give MIA opps two more wins in that scenario, since they have to lose to NE and CIN to create the tie at 3-13. (NE appearing twice on MIA schedule but only once on NYG). It appears that 22 games would have to go a certain way to get MIA to take that tiebreak. So yes,
with your additional work we can say essentially that the Giants are picking top 2 at 3-13.
One more win....should keeps us at 2.
Do any of them play each other?
So we can win one game but not 2....to asure getting Chase.
If Cinn. Goes With the LSU QB....who is from Ohio.
Picking 2nd should get us Chase
regarding Washington and Miami -- they are both playing much better football than the Giants right now so they too are unlikely to be beaten by the Giants
One more win....should keeps us at 2.
Do any of them play each other?
So we can win one game but not 2....to asure getting Chase.
If Cinn. Goes With the LSU QB....who is from Ohio.
Picking 2nd should get us Chase
The games I have left among the teams with 4 wins or less are:
yes. None of them are playing each other.
The games within the "4-wins or less" group are
CIN-MIA
NYG-WAS
NYG-MIA
ATL-JAC (so one of them will have more than 4 wins)
The games within the "4-wins or less" group are
CIN-MIA
NYG-WAS
NYG-MIA
ATL-JAC (so one of them will have more than 4 wins)
regarding Washington and Miami -- they are both playing much better football than the Giants right now so they too are unlikely to be beaten by the Giants
I wish I could agree with this but Washington and Miami both still stink. They'll be picking very close to where the Giants are. It wouldn't surprise me if the Giants managed to beat both of them. I hope that's not the case but it wouldn't be surprising with the luck this franchise seems to have.
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as bad as Philly has been the Giants just don;t match up well with them
regarding Washington and Miami -- they are both playing much better football than the Giants right now so they too are unlikely to be beaten by the Giants
I wish I could agree with this but Washington and Miami both still stink. They'll be picking very close to where the Giants are. It wouldn't surprise me if the Giants managed to beat both of them. I hope that's not the case but it wouldn't be surprising with the luck this franchise seems to have.
Both philly games are losses.
Wash is probably a win. Giants just own the skins.
It’s going to come down to which Miami/Fitzpatrick shows up vs the Giants.
I believe we took Lawrence Taylor .... just saying.
The Saints took a RB (don't remember his name) ... because they also played a 3-4 and had a very good LB'er group.
I believe we took Lawrence Taylor .... just saying.
The Saints took a RB (don't remember his name) ... because they also played a 3-4 and had a very good LB'er group.
The last time we picked 2nd was just last year when we picked Barkley. And now we're back here again.
I believe we took Lawrence Taylor .... just saying.
The Saints took a RB (don't remember his name) ... because they also played a 3-4 and had a very good LB'er group.
Do you really not remember the Giants drafting Saquon Barkley, less than 2 years ago?
I would be pretty happy if they lose three and beat Philly in the last game to knock them out of the playoffs.
it is very comforting to know that we are going to be picking
edge rusher 1
or
offensive tackle 1
assuming we do it correctly, more like 3 years and that does not guarantee post season play with our coaching.
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I believe we took Lawrence Taylor .... just saying.
The Saints took a RB (don't remember his name) ... because they also played a 3-4 and had a very good LB'er group.
Do you really not remember the Giants drafting Saquon Barkley, less than 2 years ago?
And none of the Saints LB's were on the team yet when they drafted George Rogers over LT.
Rickey Jackson was drafted later in the same draft as LT.
Pat Swilling a few years later and Sam Mills came over when the USFL collapsed.
Nice post though.
it is very comforting to know that we are going to be picking
edge rusher 1
or
offensive tackle 1
Mario Williams did not exactly light up the league...
it is very comforting to know that we are going to be picking
edge rusher 1
or
offensive tackle 1
Are any of the OT's really close to the level Chase is talent wise? Chase seems to be the pretty rare DE that comes around every 5-10 years. These LTs while a few pretty good , I wouldn't see are the prospect grades you see for the really special ones like Young could be.
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I truly believe Chase Young is the best DE prospect since Mario Williams,
it is very comforting to know that we are going to be picking
edge rusher 1
or
offensive tackle 1
Mario Williams did not exactly light up the league...
Williams was a pro bowl level player for a few years, but he wasn't ... JJ Watt.
They sure can! I can see Wli possibly winning two of the final 4, ugh!
I wish I could monitor every call that will be made to DG to hear what teams are offering him to move up into that slot.
No way.
We would have to win two more. You must feel we could beat both Miami and Washington.
If we want Chase, we may have to outbid Washington for the #1 overall.
If that scenario plays out with Washington jumping to #1, Gettleman should just trade back and get as much as possible with no other players of that caliber available.
If we want Chase, we may have to outbid Washington for the #1 overall.
If that scenario plays out with Washington jumping to #1, Gettleman should just trade back and get as much as possible with no other players of that caliber available.
One more thing. I hope that Gettleman (or whoever is the GM at that time) calls Cinci to let them know that if they trade the pick, they will in fact trade back as well with a QB needy team and screw them in the process.
Teams never take that kind of risk when it comes to their potential franchise QB. It would be complete malpractice.
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I could see Washington jumping us with Cinci to get Chase and keep him away from us.
Teams never take that kind of risk when it comes to their potential franchise QB. It would be complete malpractice.
I hope you are right. I still would put in the call to let them know we are fielding calls to drop back if they don't choose a QB.
If we want Chase, we may have to outbid Washington for the #1 overall.
If that happens it would be awesome. We will be getting trampled with offers for #2. Cincy would NOT get their guy. I would rather have Chase Young but having the first shot at QB would bring a bounty of picks. Very possibly from Miami.
If that scenario plays out with Washington jumping to #1, Gettleman should just trade back and get as much as possible with no other players of that caliber available.
if you think i'm "going wild". you should have some more god damn respect for your fellow giants fans.
yeah bro, i'm popping out champagne here /s
grow up. i'm glad we battled and took this to the wire, but i root for the laundry, not the names on the back