Rosenthal thinks the Mets are going to move a starter to unload Lowrie's contract. LOL at our rotation if they move Stroman or Matz for cash.
What a disaster. So Mets like that they did this just to trade away a guy like Matz so they can get cash relief.
Cohen can't get here soon enough.
We'll see what happens. Rosenthal is a reliable and connected as it gets but it could just mean that the Mets might've offered something like Matz/Lowrie for a good reliever and were turned down and he's speculating based on it.
Agreed though, if they trade a starter in a salary dump move it would be really pathetic.
"lighting in a bottle" with people past their prime. This roster is in danger of becoming a joke again - if he has another off-season like last year and Mets finish in 3rd or worse he should lose his job. He's made one good deal and that was JD Davis; every other deal you could argue he lost.
Then you look at Wheeler - that deal looks pretty good now after the deals being signed now.
I understand it’s all about money with the Mets. But it makes no sense to dump Lowrie. They paid him all of last season for nothing. Might as well keep him around to try to get something out of him. He’s a good player.
people are pissed at losing Wheeler. He regressed last season and some team gave him 20M/year. He is what he is - a very talented inconsistent middle to back end rotation guy who occasionally pitches lights out. I don't want that guy for 20M a year.
people are pissed at losing Wheeler. He regressed last season and some team gave him 20M/year. He is what he is - a very talented inconsistent middle to back end rotation guy who occasionally pitches lights out. I don't want that guy for 20M a year.
Zack Wheeler was 15th in fWAR, 16th in FIP c'mon. He's a major loss. Middle to back end? He's been a top 20 SP in the entire sport over the past 2 seasons.
those stats are great. Just saying Wheeler is not a huge loss. We've all watched every start of his for the last 2 years now. He's incredibly inconsistent. Just look at his starts. Every few games it is 6 runs here, 7 runs there. 4 runs, 5 runs. You can't just say a guy is good because he has a string of amazing starts over a month. Which is basically what Wheeler did in September.
1) Michael Wacha
2) Zack Wheeler
3) Rick Porcello
4) Noah Syndergaard
5) Stephen Strasburg
Inconsistent is such a crock of shit. Your numbers are what they are over a 60 start sample size. Wheeler was a top 15 SP in both 2018 and 2019. Pitchers have ups and downs. His numbers were on par (or better than) Syndergaard and 245 million dollar Strasburg while the 2 they added SUCKED. Fans have every right to be upset. The Mets got worse.
And Zack Wheeler gave up 3 or less runs in 22 starts, so yeah Zack Wheeler was a MAJOR reason they won 86 games last year. He gave up 4 or less in an additional 4 starts. So 26 times he went out there and gave the Mets a chance to win.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
· 11m
Van Wagenen has said repeatedly wouldn't trade Syndergaard this offseason. But with the cost of free agent SPs, #Mets could be getting big offers. Or Stroman. Or Matz. They could move Gsellman and Wacha becomes a swingman, but BVW indicated yesterday that Wacha would start
arguably the best pitcher in baseball allowed 5+ runs 3 times in 2019, or 2 times less than Wheeler. And nope, that wasn't the point. The point was your assertions aren't based in reality. Back end? 5-6 runs every 3rd start? I'm giving you the facts.
Wheeler 5+ runs 5 times
DeGrom 3 times
Gerrit Cole 2 times
Strasburg 4 times
I'm not even giving you fancy starts here. What you've stated is flat out false.
we are just gonna disagree on Wheeler. He isn't that great of a pitcher in my opinion. Just because he has awesome starts every once in awhile does not make you good.
among the leaders in IP. He's been a bulldog for us recently. He's a significantly loss and a big add by the Phillies.
I think he'll be even better next year getting to pitch to Realmuto. Wish the Wilpons wern't so cheap/broke and we were able to retain him.
That's the point. Nobody is suggesting he's "great" or as good as Strasburg but he's actually closer to a "top" P than a back end arm so questioning why fans would be "upset" is strange.
I am not a fan of Stroman. I don't like short pitchers with mediocre velocity.
Stroman's not my favorite player but trading him for less than we gave up wouldn't be great, and he's still 1 of the probably 20 or 30 starters in baseball capable of putting up an all star caliber year and coming up big in playoff games. That's 1 area where he's proven he can step up whereas Wheeler is just untested.
The obvious move was to resign Wheeler with his salary slot and let Kay take the 5th spot in the rotation for the minimum. Even at the AAV Wheeler got from Philly:
failed us last year. Wern't good enough for the playoffs. Rotation and offense were strengths. Wheeler was absolutely part of that good rotation. He was just as good as Thor over 2018 and 2019.
Just because he doesn't have a fancy nickname doesn't mean he hasn't been really good for us recently.
He’s a top 15 SP in baseball and looking at the current price tags, the Phillies got a steal.
Where we differ is I do think Stroman was a pre-emptive move to guard against losing him (Mets weren’t even in a playoff race when they traded for him) and BVW admitted this over the last couple days.
Vargas was our 5th SP for 2/3rds of the season last year so Porcello/Wacha are comparable to that caliber of player.
I don’t think the Mets SP was an issue at all last year (top 3 in the NL) and this current setup is probably pretty close to what we had for most of 2019.
on the 5 runs thing, plenty of times Wheeler gives up 3 or 4 runs but can't get past the 5th inning. He's inconsistent. He is what he is. If he was worth 20M a year I'm pretty sure the Mets would have kept him. He's not worth it.
Wheeler has most definitely been worth $20m per year past 2 years Â
Anything could happen in future (injury, regression) but he has absolutely been worth that number. We can criticize what he isn't (he's not JDG or SS) but what he is is still better than the #1 starter on most teams. And that's not hyperbole.
It could very well take us more than a decade to produce another homegrown SP as good as Wheeler or have another one wanting to sign here to the point of giving us the option of refusal. Prior to him and Harvey think about how long ago the last players who fit those categories were. Doc Gooden? Al Leiter?
on the 5 runs thing, plenty of times Wheeler gives up 3 or 4 runs but can't get past the 5th inning. He's inconsistent. He is what he is. If he was worth 20M a year I'm pretty sure the Mets would have kept him. He's not worth it.
Ryan,
Zack Wheeler went 6+ innings 23 times out of 30 starts. He went 7+ innings 15 times. You simply aren't being accurate in your statements here. Again, using clear #1 SP Strasburg as an example, Strasburg went 6+ 26 times. 7+ innings 13 times.
trade is done. Stupid, but it's done. It shouldn't impact how they handle Stroman going forward IMO.
Now, if the Mets can get major league talent back for him they should.
I'd even try and include Stroman in an Arenado trade - still saves money for the Rockies - especially long-term and Stroman would be a good trade chip at the deadline.
Stroman, JD Davis, Dom Smith and a B prospect for Arenado and Jake McGee.
It doesn't help the Mets get under the LT, but it might start discussions with the Rockies and if you can add an Arenado you exceed the cap for a year IMO.
The injury history is something I'd be leery of more than his production.
Once he got past the injuries he became a legit top 20 pitcher.
The injuries will always be in the back of my mind.
I don't hate that the Mets didn't sign him at that price, but it's mostly because we as Mets fans have been conditioned to feel like it's Wheeler or Syndergaard. and in that case I'd prefer Syndergaard.
was terribly inconsistent for the whole season and by the time we were out of it he decided to pitch well. Sorry, that doesn't cut it for me. You need guys that can pitch well all season long. He hasn't really done that ever in his career with the Mets. It's been up and down the entire time.
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
· 11m
Van Wagenen has said repeatedly wouldn't trade Syndergaard this offseason. But with the cost of free agent SPs, #Mets could be getting big offers. Or Stroman. Or Matz. They could move Gsellman and Wacha becomes a swingman, but BVW indicated yesterday that Wacha would start
I would jump on a good offer for Matz. I think there is a perception that he is better than the results show. Porcello replaces his production in the rotation.
was terribly inconsistent for the whole season and by the time we were out of it he decided to pitch well. Sorry, that doesn't cut it for me. You need guys that can pitch well all season long. He hasn't really done that ever in his career with the Mets. It's been up and down the entire time.
I think we'd all agree that the NYY are a well run organization that does everything they can to acquire the best players they can and win.
What SP have they been able to find in the past 10 years better than Wheeler? And what did they cost?
If it were easy to find guys who could "pitch well all season long" every team would have JDG. But they don't, do they? That's why they just wrote a $300m check.
But I’m personally ok with not resigning Wheeler for 5 yrs & 118mil (AAV of 24mil).
I think the proper comparison should be what is the drop off, if any, between Wheeler and Stroman. I don’t think, without getting into their respective stats (ie 2017 and 2018), there’s much of a drop off at all. I believe Stroman could reasonably outpitch Zack the next few years. And there may be some upside to Stroman over Zack.
Let's say the rotation is about a wash compared to last year (IMO it isn't, but, we just say it is).
Well, the pen is also the same disaster from last year. Apparently they are 2 million from the luxury cap (in reality we know they aren't due to insurance payments, but the wilpons think we are all stupid), so there doesn't seems to be any money to improve the pen.
Crossing fingers and hoping that Diaz and Familia improve isn't the best plan...
RE: I know we have our reservations about the Mets ownership Â
But I’m personally ok with not resigning Wheeler for 5 yrs & 118mil (AAV of 24mil).
I think the proper comparison should be what is the drop off, if any, between Wheeler and Stroman. I don’t think, without getting into their respective stats (ie 2017 and 2018), there’s much of a drop off at all. I believe Stroman could reasonably outpitch Zack the next few years. And there may be some upside to Stroman over Zack.
Stroman is a FA himself after the season so "next few years" doesn't mean much. If he "outpitches" Wheeler then aren't you then giving him 24+ million per season and if he doesn't pitch well enough for that... then you downgraded. This idea Stroman is a cheaper option is true... for 2020 but only marginally given the fact the Mets could have backloaded Wheeler's first year. Stroman is projected to make 12 million this season and then the Mets will either lose him or give him market rate.
RE: I know we have our reservations about the Mets ownership Â
But I’m personally ok with not resigning Wheeler for 5 yrs & 118mil (AAV of 24mil).
I think the proper comparison should be what is the drop off, if any, between Wheeler and Stroman. I don’t think, without getting into their respective stats (ie 2017 and 2018), there’s much of a drop off at all. I believe Stroman could reasonably outpitch Zack the next few years. And there may be some upside to Stroman over Zack.
I don't disagree with anything you said, but they only have Stroman under contract for 1 year. And if he outpitches what Wheeler has done, he too will get paid.
Sure guys, I’m well aware of Stroman’s contract year Â
But what I’m saying is... IF Stroman is the better pitcher which I suspect he is, then a full year from now after the Cohen’s deal goes through, I don’t see any reason we can’t retain Stroman. Hence, letting Wheeler go was the best long term move.
makes Stroman better or more upside? career 3.64 FIP (3.72 in 2019), highest fWAR season ever was 3.9, Wheeler career 3.71 FIP (3.25 and 3.48 the past 2), 4.7 fWAR in 2019. What in Stroman's resume suggests he's better or has more upside? Last 2 seasons Zack Wheeler 8.9 fWAR, Stroman last 3 seasons 8.7. Hope and prayer? Because the numbers almost across the board favor Wheeler.
Wheeler is good doesn't mean that paying him 20M a year for 5 years makes sense.
After what Cole and Strass got, Wheeler at $20M is a steal. And Dan hits on the pertinent point, he has the ability to get better. You're not going to win this argument.
Only 3 players currently under contract. JDG, Cano, and Familia. Well Brach at $1.25M too. Ramos has a club option.
That is why IMO it makes a ton of sense to exceed the LT this year. the first time penalty is tiny (like 20% of the overage or something like that). So if they go even $20M over the LT it's $4M fine).
It should not limit what the Mets do this year, and if it does then it's like high schoolers running the front office. if the Mets are competitive they'll easily make up that $4M.
makes Stroman better or more upside? career 3.64 FIP (3.72 in 2019), highest fWAR season ever was 3.9, Wheeler career 3.71 FIP (3.25 and 3.48 the past 2), 4.7 fWAR in 2019. What in Stroman's resume suggests he's better or has more upside? Last 2 seasons Zack Wheeler 8.9 fWAR, Stroman last 3 seasons 8.7. Hope and prayer? Because the numbers almost across the board favor Wheeler.
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan
makes Stroman better or more upside? career 3.64 FIP (3.72 in 2019), highest fWAR season ever was 3.9, Wheeler career 3.71 FIP (3.25 and 3.48 the past 2), 4.7 fWAR in 2019. What in Stroman's resume suggests he's better or has more upside? Last 2 seasons Zack Wheeler 8.9 fWAR, Stroman last 3 seasons 8.7. Hope and prayer? Because the numbers almost across the board favor Wheeler.
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan
1. Adjustment to an easier offensive league? That's a new one.
2. YOU are the one who suggested he had more upside than Wheeler. I'm asking for evidence of this. Based on what metric? What is this based on? Where is the improvement?
Career vs. 2019
k/9- 7.36 vs. 7.76
bb/9 2.59 vs. 2.83
FIP 3.64 vs. 3.72
Again, please provide me with something that would suggest Stroman is better with more "upside" than Zack Wheeler. Thanks.
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan
He was awful in 2018. That said, your points are fair, but I'm not bullish on small power pitchers aging well. So if the choice was Stroman v Wheeler, I'm taking Wheeler every time.
Stroman was WORSE than his career numbers in both 2017 and 2018 posting a 3.90 FIP over that time, a lower than his career # K rate as well. So I'm very confused
Your shtick is tired. I said ”there may be some upside with Stroman”. No more no less. I didn’t say ANYTHING DEFINITIVE about Stroman being better than Wheeler.
I also said I “suspect” he is the better pitcher over the next few years. None of your stats can DISPROVE that. But having an argument or debate about something I SUSPECT OR SUGGESTED is ridiculous. If you disagree, then just disagree and move on. This pencil pushing thing you keep doing is tired and played out.
Your shtick is tired. I said ”there may be some upside with Stroman”. No more no less. I didn’t say ANYTHING DEFINITIVE about Stroman being better than Wheeler.
I also said I “suspect” he is the better pitcher over the next few years. None of your stats can DISPROVE that. But having an argument or debate about something I SUSPECT OR SUGGESTED is ridiculous. If you disagree, then just disagree and move on. This pencil pushing thing you keep doing is tired and played out.
Shtick? I'm asking for the basis for you opinion. I'm not using fancy numbers. What is "more upside" based on? So far you've given me nothing other than hope. I'm not allowed to wonder what "more upside" comes from? Pencil pushing? Lame response. You made a claim and have yet to give any reason why. Got it, you "hope" Stroman is better than Wheeler based on.. hope.
Your shtick is tired. I said ”there may be some upside with Stroman”. No more no less. I didn’t say ANYTHING DEFINITIVE about Stroman being better than Wheeler.
I also said I “suspect” he is the better pitcher over the next few years. None of your stats can DISPROVE that. But having an argument or debate about something I SUSPECT OR SUGGESTED is ridiculous. If you disagree, then just disagree and move on. This pencil pushing thing you keep doing is tired and played out.
"And there may be some upside to Stroman over Zack."
I'm not allowed to ask for a reason why? You didn't give any and still haven't. "I just think" is basically what your evidence was. That's fine but that's it.
and then say they are wrong after they give them. That's the issue.
"Opinion" and "opinion backed up by something" are not the same.
"I think Daniel Jones will be better than Lamar Jackson" SHOULD be challenged. Maybe I have something to back it up. If I just say "well, I think his transition to the NFL will make a huge difference" vs. "look at the numbers the past few seasons, look how they compare in xyz".. there is a major difference. You called Wheeler a back end starter, that isn't correct by ANY standard. You said he didn't pitch past the 5th inning enough, I pointed out that wasn't right. You think people should just claim things without being fact checked? That's what we are doing now?
guy, Stroman's WAR was better than Wheeler's this past year, by almost a full point. Stroman 4.4 and Wheeler 3.5.
fWAR uses FIP aka a better tool than ersa. Wheeler posted 4.7 fWAR. Good luck finding anyone in baseball who thinks ERA is a better metric than FIP. Link - ( New Window )
I am not a fan of Stroman. I don't like short pitchers with mediocre velocity.
I started to evaluate your short pitcher mediocre velocity statement. I might argue the opposite. At least he is pitching to his body limitations. I would worry more about his arm and injuries if what you said was true. Note I have no real examples of either case.
but opinions are still opinions. If you ask for someone's opinion and they give it to you, it doesn't mean they owe you some paragraph long explanation as to why they think that. I even tried to do that with you with Wheeler, and you still can't accept my opinion. And it's not like I'm the only person on planet earth who thinks that way, you just can't accept it.
Well Dan, that would have been fine if you had just asked me that Â
But unfortunately, you typically go on a rant with a bunch of stats... TRYING to incite an argument or debate that no one is really having with you. However more importantly, your tone on here is condescending. Maybe that was cool in HS or college but we all are MEN here. So if you want to ask me a follow up question then just ask me a follow up question. Something like “What leads you to think that Stroman has more upside than Wheeler?”
Instead of pulling stats and pretending those are iron clad proof that what I was suggested isn’t reasonable or a possible outcome or just plain wrong. I would be more than happy to engage and entertain a conversation like that then what you’re doing on this board.
era was 3.96, FIP 3.48. That's what happens when you pitch for an awful defensive team. Only 3 pitchers in baseball had a bigger era to FIP split than Noah Syndergaard, why? Because again, the Mets defense was HORRENDOUS. Wheeler was 7th
so you only like to use the stats that fit your narrative? That's bullshit. Stroman's WAR was nearly a full point higher than Wheeler. In your opinion Wheeler is a top 15 pitcher in baseball. Do you think Stroman is a top 15 pitcher in baseball? Because his WAR was .9 higher.
RE: Well Dan, that would have been fine if you had just asked me that Â
But unfortunately, you typically go on a rant with a bunch of stats... TRYING to incite an argument or debate that no one is really having with you. However more importantly, your tone on here is condescending. Maybe that was cool in HS or college but we all are MEN here. So if you want to ask me a follow up question then just ask me a follow up question. Something like “What leads you to think that Stroman has more upside than Wheeler?”
Instead of pulling stats and pretending those are iron clad proof that what I was suggested isn’t reasonable or a possible outcome or just plain wrong. I would be more than happy to engage and entertain a conversation like that then what you’re doing on this board.
How was my initial question anything but?
"What
DanMetroMan : 11:31 am : link : reply
makes Stroman better or more upside? career 3.64 FIP (3.72 in 2019), highest fWAR season ever was 3.9, Wheeler career 3.71 FIP (3.25 and 3.48 the past 2), 4.7 fWAR in 2019. What in Stroman's resume suggests he's better or has more upside? Last 2 seasons Zack Wheeler 8.9 fWAR, Stroman last 3 seasons 8.7. Hope and prayer? Because the numbers almost across the board favor Wheeler."
Your reponse was the rude one.
"
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan"
so you only like to use the stats that fit your narrative? That's bullshit. Stroman's WAR was nearly a full point higher than Wheeler. In your opinion Wheeler is a top 15 pitcher in baseball. Do you think Stroman is a top 15 pitcher in baseball? Because his WAR was .9 higher.
ryan,
You're going to be on your own on this one. EVERYONE accepts FIP is the superior stat. If you disagree on that one there is nothing else to discuss.
19-6 3.81 era 1.33 whip according to bWAR outpitched SP like Ryu, Bieber, Charlie Morton, Zack Greinke, Noah Syndergaard. Does anyone honestly believe that to be true? Because he won 19 games?
Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez the 7th best SP in baseball, Jack Flaherty #8
So you're telling me I'm supposed to believe Lance Lynn is a better pitcher than Jacob deGrom?
Huh? That's bWAR, the number YOU gave us. fWAR (which uses FIP) has Jacob DeGrom as the #2 P in baseball in 2019 behind Gerrit Cole. Thanks for making my point. bWAR sucks.
just making an obvious point, even if Lynn DID outpitch DeGrom in 2019 (he did not) it wouldn't be making the point he's a better pitcher. Just that he had a better 2019. But deGrom had a lower FIP, era, k/9, across the board by any normal metric Jacob DeGrom outpitched Lance Lynn, bWAR suggests otherwise.
you can throw out 20 different stats if you like. My opinion is that Wheeler isn't worth a huge contract like that. They have Stroman for half the money that Wheeler makes for this year, and by all of your stats, they are basically the same pitcher.
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
The #Mets have selected RHP Adam Oller from the Giants in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
12:21 PM · Dec 12, 2019·Twitter Web App
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
8m
#Mets minor league OF Jason Krizan was selected by the Twins in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
23m
The #Mets did not lose any players in the major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
is saved. Thank god. lol just kidding, but seriously I am glad he wasn't taken.
Newton is a ++ athlete but nobody was taking him and keeping him. The only outcome other than this one would have been a sad one for the kid. An entire year lost sitting on a bench when he needs a LOT of reps. Good for him and the Mets.
New @mets minor league Adam Oller with a great k-rate in Indy Ball in 2019 but this pre-draft report suggests he's a command over stuff type #Mets Link - ( New Window )
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Van Wagenen hinted the Mets aren't looking for additional bullpen help at this point. He views Lugo and Gsellman as bullpen additions, although technically they never left to become starters.
RE: RE: Well Dan, that would have been fine if you had just asked me that Â
But unfortunately, you typically go on a rant with a bunch of stats... TRYING to incite an argument or debate that no one is really having with you. However more importantly, your tone on here is condescending. Maybe that was cool in HS or college but we all are MEN here. So if you want to ask me a follow up question then just ask me a follow up question. Something like “What leads you to think that Stroman has more upside than Wheeler?”
Instead of pulling stats and pretending those are iron clad proof that what I was suggested isn’t reasonable or a possible outcome or just plain wrong. I would be more than happy to engage and entertain a conversation like that then what you’re doing on this board.
How was my initial question anything but?
"What
DanMetroMan : 11:31 am : link : reply
makes Stroman better or more upside? career 3.64 FIP (3.72 in 2019), highest fWAR season ever was 3.9, Wheeler career 3.71 FIP (3.25 and 3.48 the past 2), 4.7 fWAR in 2019. What in Stroman's resume suggests he's better or has more upside? Last 2 seasons Zack Wheeler 8.9 fWAR, Stroman last 3 seasons 8.7. Hope and prayer? Because the numbers almost across the board favor Wheeler."
Your reponse was the rude one.
"
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan"
Nice try again
Your initial question ended with “hope and prayer” which suggests a couple things. That I had no factual or reasoned basis for my comment or statement. And 2) that your recited stats are the end all or be all on the topic. If stats told the whole story, then you would be a GM of a baseball team Dan. Because we all know, you have stats for days!!!
But we all know or should know, it takes a little more than just regurgitating stats. We have a ground ball pitcher in Stroman switching leagues with no DH to contend with now, played on some poor Blue Jays teams, and still reasonably young, etc. So suggesting there’s upside here is reasonable. Wheeler is Wheeler. That much we know.
has pretty much came out and admitted that getting burned by Familia and Diaz last year ("volatility in the reliever market") has impacted his willingness to sign relievers.
Up until now I felt like give this guy some time. Let's see his plan.
Now I'm filled with anxiety - this guy needs to be relieved of his job before he does generational damage.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
14m
Van Wagenen: "We feel that the volatility in the reliever market, which we experienced last year, makes investment into that market a little bit riskier."
I don't care if you bring on the onslaught of "stats" from other pitchers that aren't consistent...that wasn't the point. And using full season stats are good and all but it doesn't always tell the full story.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
I don't care if you bring on the onslaught of "stats" from other pitchers that aren't consistent...that wasn't the point. And using full season stats are good and all but it doesn't always tell the full story.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler at 23.5 million per season is 12th most in baseball and 70th biggest contract given out in the history of the sport. He only has 2 years of success under his belt. If he posted a 3rd or 4th season exactly like the first 2 he would have received that much more.
"Any day week month now, Zack Wheeler is going to sign a contract that compensates him like a very good pitcher, and he’ll deserve it. He’s been consistently above average the past two years, the kind of guy you’d love to have as a No. 2 starter and one who can fake it as a No. 1. In short, he’s been what the Mets hoped for when he was a highly regarded prospect, after a brief detour into arm-injury-land.
But I think there’s still more there. Zack Wheeler, as currently constituted, does everything a bit better than average. He strikes out a few more batters than average, walks a few less, and suppresses hard contact just a smidge. That makes for an above-average pitcher, of course. But it doesn’t make for a world-devouring ace, the kind who opposing batters fear and hometown fans assume will never lose." Link - ( New Window )
I don't care if you bring on the onslaught of "stats" from other pitchers that aren't consistent...that wasn't the point. And using full season stats are good and all but it doesn't always tell the full story.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler at 23.5 million per season is 12th most in baseball and 70th biggest contract given out in the history of the sport. He only has 2 years of success under his belt. If he posted a 3rd or 4th season exactly like the first 2 he would have received that much more.
Fair point. Listen, as I said. I like Wheeler but I also feel like he was more inconsistent than most. At some point, you need to stop talking about potential with a 30 year old pitcher. If he every puts it together over a full season then we are talking...but with Wheeler, I just don't feel that the overall stats for a season tell the full story with him. And I've watched nearly every single one of his starts. I think that Stroman could fill in quite nicely, if not be even better than Wheeler.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
14m
Van Wagenen: "We feel that the volatility in the reliever market, which we experienced last year, makes investment into that market a little bit riskier."
See, this is the type of quote that I can't stand. I know BVW is a mouthpiece for the Wilpon's and can't be out of here soon enough, but what the hell does that even mean? That is such agent speak. So like last year, instead of investing in free agency at a position of need, you would rather trade your top prospects to get a closer who is under cost control?
Was hoping we could nab him. Lost year but a torn lat is muscle related and the Achilles is fluky/not arm related. I see him bouncing back big time.
What do think Betances gets 1 yr 10mil? He’s who I wanted and heard he’s close with Beltran
I think I saw MLBTR suggest a 6 mil base with heavy incentives making it as high as 12-13. But who knows now? Prices are getting ridiculous this off-season.
BVW both says and does dumb shit but I'm ok with the offseason so far Â
Being out on Betances and citing "volatility" in the reliever market as a reason not to spend any money there beyond minimum pickups (like Brach) is moronic and flies in the face of all recent evidence. Yes there is volatility, that's why even the best relievers make less money than other positions and nobody (except bvw) gives up top prospects for relievers.
The volatility is priced in, unless you overpay for a reliever like he did last year with Diaz, or were ignorant of that fact like he was last year. And if Diaz was a massive overpay of resources, wouldn't that mean Wilson was a huge steal for his price? Like, easily, BVW's best FA signing last year?
Not getting Betances isn't the end of the world but he is by far the best option because healthy is as proven of a player in the role we need as you can find. If they don't get him I'd hope they go for Daniel Hudson or a couple guys who fit that profile of with upside converting to relievers.
they get hurt most frequently and cost the most money. I have no issue if they want to bet on JDG/Thor as true aces worthy of $100m early extensions and then build a better team around them because dollar for dollar $120m can be more productively spend on position players get hurt less and BP arms who are cheaper. Building a great BP and good team around 2 aces and some cheaper innings eaters would be perfectly sound.
The problem as always is not reinvesting saved money and again underinvesting in the BP and on the field behind the starters. Sign Betances. Get a strong defensive catcher, even if it's just Maldonado on a 1 year deal. Those are 2 easy moves that would credibly in my mind make this a better, deeper, team than they were last year. Without having traded off any more prospects.
The run in August coincided with a huge defensive improvement up the middle (Cano out, Lagares in, Rosario improved). Adding 2 elite defenders into the mix (Maldonado, the CF from Houston) could go a long way to improving this team even in part time work if they don't hit a ton. Panik and Lagares certainly didn't hit a ton either.
they get hurt most frequently and cost the most money. I have no issue if they want to bet on JDG/Thor as true aces worthy of $100m early extensions and then build a better team around them because dollar for dollar $120m can be more productively spend on position players get hurt less and BP arms who are cheaper. Building a great BP and good team around 2 aces and some cheaper innings eaters would be perfectly sound.
The problem as always is not reinvesting saved money and again underinvesting in the BP and on the field behind the starters. Sign Betances. Get a strong defensive catcher, even if it's just Maldonado on a 1 year deal. Those are 2 easy moves that would credibly in my mind make this a better, deeper, team than they were last year. Without having traded off any more prospects.
The run in August coincided with a huge defensive improvement up the middle (Cano out, Lagares in, Rosario improved). Adding 2 elite defenders into the mix (Maldonado, the CF from Houston) could go a long way to improving this team even in part time work if they don't hit a ton. Panik and Lagares certainly didn't hit a ton either.
Another great post from you Eric. You are on a roll.
I think you diagnosed exactly what BVW is doing.
I would like to see the Mets sign Vogt. He is a LH hitting catcher. Not great at throwing runners out but otherwise strong defensively and great working with pitchers. Giants staff loved throwing to him.
They better score a ton of runs, or Steamer be wrong or this could be a very ugly season.
Compare that to other rotations and, besides a few, I think that's actually pretty good considering how offense heavy the league has been recently.
The Mets finished 7th in runs scored... in the NL, the rotation is worse on paper and the pen is the same. 86 wins last year, how can anyone currently make an argument this is a playoff caliber team is last year wasn't? Forget Wheeler, Vargas outpitched both SP the Mets added.
is lucky to have received what he did. He was legit one of the bottom 5 SP in baseball and finished the year with shoulder issues. He was probably worried he'd have to settle for a minor league deal/ST invite.
context 14 SP's have signed as FA this off-season, Wacha's 3 guaranteed was 2 million less than the 2nd lowest figure (Wainwright who took less to stay in St. Louis) and 5 million per less than the next SP (Lyles). He saw the market and this is all he could get. Would love for it to work out but at best he tosses up a half season worth of mediocre starts and that represents value. SP Depth remains a major issue despite Brodie's absurd 6 4th starters or better claim.
The Mets should be talking to Toronto about one of their 2 C.
What do you think it would take to get McGuire: Does Dom and Gimenez get it done? He did not really hit that great in the minors.
I wouldn't give them both up for McGuire but I'd do either one plus a lesser piece (preferably Dom to Gimenez) but if Toronto is rebuilding and wants to talk Giles in a deal involving both I'd be all ears. Wouldn't hate Jansen either (might be an even better get honestly).
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
Mets aren't close to a Starling Marte trade, a source said. And it's not clear they ever will be, as they don't see Marte as a huge upgrade over the Nimmo/Marisnick combo — especially for whatever he would cost.
Further, Mets are disinclined to include Nimmo in that or any deal."
Maybe the first smart Mets "decision" I've heard this off-season. Nimmo for Marte makes absolutely no sense and their closer (aka pen help from them) belongs in Alcatraz #Mets
Assuming the 3 million is accurate, that puts them 2.5 under.
So really they can't do any more deals unless it is something like Dan suggested above, with getting a cost controlled catcher like one of the guys from Toronto.
I think using a player like Dom to move a salary like Lowrie's is a bad move longterm. This is not a team guaranteed to make the playoffs. See how they start the season before you start giving away young talent to move short-term contracts.
LeClerc has an extremely team-friendly contract, however I think Dom would be a great target for Texas. RP are volatile and LeClerc has had major command issues for the majority of his career. Huge 2018 for sure. Big risk with him. 68.2 innings 33 walks in 2019
Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
·
1m
Sources: Mets have talked to the Rangers about right-hander reliever Jose Leclerc.
Leclerc, 25, had 4.33 ERA, 100 K in 68 innings in 2019
@Ken_Rosenthal
was the first to mention that the Rangers and Mets had talked about a deal potentially including Dom Smith and Jed Lowrie.
Leclerc is good. Would be a nice add.
If we trade both Smith and Lowrie, we're left with, Mcneil, Rosario, Cano, Alonso, Davis in the IF. And, Conforto, Nimmo, the Astros guy we added, Cespedes and Davis in OF.
Our depth looks a lot thinner after a deal like that. Cano is likely to be on the DL at some point. Nimmo and Conforto havn't exactly been healthy all the time. Cespedes is obviously a question mark. McNeil seemed like he needed rest days last year at times.
Are we really sure we want to give up all of that depth just to add an RP? Why not keep the depth and just sign Betances without giving anything up?
scares me. 5.1 BB/9 in 2019, career 5.6. Not saying I'd hate Dom and Lowrie for him but I could also see it working out poorly for us and well for Texas.
scares me. 5.1 BB/9 in 2019, career 5.6. Not saying I'd hate Dom and Lowrie for him but I could also see it working out poorly for us and well for Texas.
I agree. Not another reliever with control problems. However, it might be too tempting for BVW to turn down since it would free up the extra cap space, while also adding another arm to the bullpen. Lowrie really has no place on this team
scares me. 5.1 BB/9 in 2019, career 5.6. Not saying I'd hate Dom and Lowrie for him but I could also see it working out poorly for us and well for Texas.
I agree. Not another reliever with control problems. However, it might be too tempting for BVW to turn down since it would free up the extra cap space, while also adding another arm to the bullpen. Lowrie really has no place on this team
disagree, he's the Mets only real depth in the infield.
and not totally relevant, but Mets have 15 players on their roster that have made at least 1 all start game. That does not include Nimmo, Lugo or J.D. Davis
disagree, he's the Mets only real depth in the infield.
He is only depth at SS.
If Cano goes down, McNeil goes to 2B and JD to 3B.
If McNeil goes down, JD takes his spot
So, Lowrie only really will be used extensively if Rosario goes down and he played in 154 and 157 games the last two years.
Plus, I doubt Lowrie can play SS full time at a high level any more. He is obviously better defensively than JD at 3B. But they have Luis G to be a defensive replacement.
So, yeah, Lowrie is a good guy to have but in no way is he essential even as a backup. Then, if you factor in that he missed almost all of last season with a variety of injuries and he is due to make 11.5 million, you trade him in a heartbeat if anybody wants him.
and not totally relevant, but Mets have 15 players on their roster that have made at least 1 all start game. That does not include Nimmo, Lugo or J.D. Davis
disagree, he's the Mets only real depth in the infield.
He is only depth at SS.
If Cano goes down, McNeil goes to 2B and JD to 3B.
If McNeil goes down, JD takes his spot
So, Lowrie only really will be used extensively if Rosario goes down and he played in 154 and 157 games the last two years.
Plus, I doubt Lowrie can play SS full time at a high level any more. He is obviously better defensively than JD at 3B. But they have Luis G to be a defensive replacement.
So, yeah, Lowrie is a good guy to have but in no way is he essential even as a backup. Then, if you factor in that he missed almost all of last season with a variety of injuries and he is due to make 11.5 million, you trade him in a heartbeat if anybody wants him.
Then you take that money and sign Betances.
not certain I want JD playing extensively at 3B. That feeling could change but right now hard pass on that idea.
Also can we not shift McNeil around again like we've been doing, give him 3b full time.
Dont know why people are in a rush to trade away Â
Thats a ton of depth and I guarantee 3 regular everyday players will be out at the same time this coming year, at least once.
Lowrie backs up 3B, SS, and 2B. Dom backs up CO/1B but is also the primary LH bat off the bench. JD backs up CO/3B and is probably starting multiple times a week resting Ces.
Marisnick plays against lefties and comes in late in just about every game with a lead.
did the Wilpons lose $60 million dollars the last two years? It's unreal to me. Baseball is growing like crazy, teams like the Phillies and Braves are spending enormous sums of money and we're LOSING money?
Those Debt payments are what killed this organization. And they were too stupid to be ahead of the curve in analytics like the Rays.
Without the debt payments though, they almost certainly would be turning a profit.
Cohen can't get here soon enough. We have an incredibly rabid fanbase that will turn out with a winner.
RE: Dont know why people are in a rush to trade away Â
Thats a ton of depth and I guarantee 3 regular everyday players will be out at the same time this coming year, at least once.
Lowrie backs up 3B, SS, and 2B. Dom backs up CO/1B but is also the primary LH bat off the bench. JD backs up CO/3B and is probably starting multiple times a week resting Ces.
Marisnick plays against lefties and comes in late in just about every game with a lead.
Thats a really nice bench. Leave it alone.
1000% agree, the lux tax will cost peanuts vs what they will make in a winning season's revenue.
alot of RP's still available, some can probably be got cheaply or with minor league deals.
Cischek, Joe Smith, Vizcaino, Pat Neshek
RE: RE: I swear I just want one more quality reliever Â
MM was traded twice last year, first by KC to the Cubs for a 30 year old reliever. Then by the Cubs at the deadline to the Astros for Tony Kemp.
In 98 PA's for the Astros he went on to post a .781 OPS and on the season he was as usual 1 of the best defensive C's overall (+8 DRS). He made like $3m total last year, so presumably this was a decision over $1m.
Not sure which reliever would have made the most sense, but flash to September 3rd vs. the Nats and a lot of guys could have been the difference in both of those team's trajectories from that moment forward. As could have firing Callaway in June like he should have been.
A lot of "what ifs" from last year unfortunately, and all linked to shit decisions made but our beloved CEO, who fortunately had "prior obligations" instead of attending the WM like usual this year.
guessing but baseball prospectus's catching metrics don't like Maldonado at all and the Mets have hired people from BP since Brodie was hired so I'm guessing they like him less than you'd think.
guessing but baseball prospectus's catching metrics don't like Maldonado at all and the Mets have hired people from BP since Brodie was hired so I'm guessing they like him less than you'd think.
Certainly possible, but presumably there's something there if the Astros keep adding him and getting to WS with him. The C position is a complete wasteland.
guessing but baseball prospectus's catching metrics don't like Maldonado at all and the Mets have hired people from BP since Brodie was hired so I'm guessing they like him less than you'd think.
Certainly possible, but presumably there's something there if the Astros keep adding him and getting to WS with him. The C position is a complete wasteland.
BP's system really, really dislike him.. not saying they or the Mets are right, it's just a theory I have. Link - ( New Window )
What does Jacob Stallings cost @Mets? Better hitter than Nido and both @baseballpro and statcorner seem very high on his work behind the plate. No real future in Pittsburgh #Mets
DMM the only part of that theory that's off a little Â
is that in 2017 MM was #1 in the BP stats and in 2018 he was not as good but still a positive (#18, tied with Zunino). So when he was a FA right around the time we cut TDA he didn't rank poorly, and we know they had spoken to him prior to signing Ramos in the offseason so there was some level of interest.
So while his 2019 metrics very well could have been crap, whatever he had accrued by July probably needed to be taken with a grain of salt not only because they were SSS but because he mostly pitched for a new team, with a terrible pitching staff he was new to, and without a ST.
By statcast Maldonado was still top of the league in pop time and arm so whatever regression he had doesn't seem to have been due to a loss of athletic ability which is usually the main concern with aging regression.
RE: DMM the only part of that theory that's off a little Â
is that in 2017 MM was #1 in the BP stats and in 2018 he was not as good but still a positive (#18, tied with Zunino). So when he was a FA right around the time we cut TDA he didn't rank poorly, and we know they had spoken to him prior to signing Ramos in the offseason so there was some level of interest.
So while his 2019 metrics very well could have been crap, whatever he had accrued by July probably needed to be taken with a grain of salt not only because they were SSS but because he mostly pitched for a new team, with a terrible pitching staff he was new to, and without a ST.
By statcast Maldonado was still top of the league in pop time and arm so whatever regression he had doesn't seem to have been due to a loss of athletic ability which is usually the main concern with aging regression.
BP had him 86th in framing runs (which is obviously very bad) and 34th in overall defense (FRAA) for whatever the reason their metrics are very low on him.
right but that's from an odd year that was split on 3 teams w/ no ST Â
I have no idea how they calculate framing runs in the first place, but I'd imagine familiarity impacts any stat that has variables from other players (pitchers).
did the Wilpons lose $60 million dollars the last two years? It's unreal to me. Baseball is growing like crazy, teams like the Phillies and Braves are spending enormous sums of money and we're LOSING money?
Those Debt payments are what killed this organization. And they were too stupid to be ahead of the curve in analytics like the Rays.
Without the debt payments though, they almost certainly would be turning a profit.
Cohen can't get here soon enough. We have an incredibly rabid fanbase that will turn out with a winner.
They didn't. It's an accounting trick. They are not counting the increase in the team's value, just revenue.
What does Jacob Stallings cost @Mets? Better hitter than Nido and both @baseballpro and statcorner seem very high on his work behind the plate. No real future in Pittsburgh #Mets
Dan, quick question. Do you copy and paste what you put on twitter? Just wondering why some of your posts look like a twitter post and some are normal.
What does Jacob Stallings cost @Mets? Better hitter than Nido and both @baseballpro and statcorner seem very high on his work behind the plate. No real future in Pittsburgh #Mets
Dan, quick question. Do you copy and paste what you put on twitter? Just wondering why some of your posts look like a twitter post and some are normal.
Only when I use my phone which I’m doing right now with my computer doing some weird error check thing for the past few hours.
liking what the Marlins have done so far adding Villar, Garcia, Aguilar and Sharp
Considering he is likely to come cheap I understand getting Aguilar. I just don't think there is much there and he benefitted from playing home games in Milwaukee. Sharp was one of the few names in the Rule 5 Draft I liked this year, but I figured that he would not fall to the Mets even if we had a slot available for him.
liking what the Marlins have done so far adding Villar, Garcia, Aguilar and Sharp
Considering he is likely to come cheap I understand getting Aguilar. I just don't think there is much there and he benefitted from playing home games in Milwaukee. Sharp was one of the few names in the Rule 5 Draft I liked this year, but I figured that he would not fall to the Mets even if we had a slot available for him.
Aguilar is nothing special but he's going to cost the Marlins pennies and put up a 3.1 fWAR season in 2018, maybe it was a total fluke but for "free" he was a nice add. Villar was a steal and Garcia could be one as well.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
Sources: The Mets have reached an agreement with Yoenis Cespedes to amend his contract and 2020 salary. Still working on details.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Yoenis Cespedes and the New York Mets have agreed on an amended contract, a source tells ESPN. While he remains with the team, the settlement significantly lower his salary from the planned $29.5 million.
And now we know why BVW was mum on him a few weeks ago Â
hopefully that savings can get injected into signing Betances.
Do that and swap Dom or JDD for 1 of the Toronto catchers (or another strong defensive catcher) and even with Wheeler leaving I'd consider this offseason a major success. Especially knowing the end of the Wilpon era is near.
Def sounds like they had a good case, maybe BVW went player friendly? Â
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
The reduction in Céspedes' 2020 salary is "significant," a source said. He had been due to make $29.5 million before this restructuring.
RE: Def sounds like they had a good case, maybe BVW went player friendly? Â
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
The reduction in Céspedes' 2020 salary is "significant," a source said. He had been due to make $29.5 million before this restructuring.
Wow, that's huge! Definitely didn't see that happening. That can change a lot going forward.
RE: And now we know why BVW was mum on him a few weeks ago Â
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
The details on Michael Wacha’s incentives:
He gets a “point” for each start or relief appearance of at least three innings. He will earn $500K at points 10, 14, 18, and 20 and at each additional point through 30.
He would earn $250K for 40, 45, 50, and 55 relief appearances.
im really annoyed at how obvious of a signing Betances should be right now. Would be nice to see the new manager get a guy he has a relationship after Callaway the pitching guru was like 0-3 with "his guys" who hit FA.
Are they still in on Betances?
that's it, the best thing. Both could bounce back to their better days, but I wouldn't count on it for eoither
Now you're going to hear the Mets NEED to trade JD Davis or Dom Smith to get rid of Jed Lowrie's contract and get under the Luxury Trax threshold.
I'd trade both, but not the way the Mets are going to do it.
Now sign Betances too.
What a disaster. So Mets like that they did this just to trade away a guy like Matz so they can get cash relief.
Cohen can't get here soon enough.
Quote:
Rosenthal thinks the Mets are going to move a starter to unload Lowrie's contract. LOL at our rotation if they move Stroman or Matz for cash.
What a disaster. So Mets like that they did this just to trade away a guy like Matz so they can get cash relief.
Cohen can't get here soon enough.
We'll see what happens. Rosenthal is a reliable and connected as it gets but it could just mean that the Mets might've offered something like Matz/Lowrie for a good reliever and were turned down and he's speculating based on it.
Agreed though, if they trade a starter in a salary dump move it would be really pathetic.
And I know it's not my money, but we are talking about $10M. These are the same people that signed off taking on 7 more years of Cano!
He is going to the Mets, where careers go to die not get resurrected...
Then you look at Wheeler - that deal looks pretty good now after the deals being signed now.
Still, the two together might have got you close to Keuchel... :(
Are they still in on Betances?
Wacha was the 4th worst SP in baseball in 2019. He's not a "mid rotation" SP on any decent MLB team.
Zack Wheeler was 15th in fWAR, 16th in FIP c'mon. He's a major loss. Middle to back end? He's been a top 20 SP in the entire sport over the past 2 seasons.
@SotoC803
·
18m
With the Rick Porcello signing #Mets payroll now stands at:
Standard Payroll: $179.8M
Luxury Tax Payroll: $206.1M
*The 2020 Luxury Tax line is $208.0M so the Mets are right up on the edge of it.*
If the Mets eat some cash.
So, unlikely, but worth sharing.
SP2) 8.9 fWAR, 3.37 FIP, 8.91 K/9, 377.2 innings pitched
SP3) 4.2 fWAR, 4.37 FIP, 8.20 K/9, 365.2 innings pitched
SP4) 8.5 fWAR, 3.25 FIP, 9.13 K/9, 352 innings pitched
SP5) 8.1 fWAR, 3.39 FIP, 10.81 K/9, 339 innings pitched
One of these is Zack Wheeler... back end? Why are fans upset?...
Still, the two together might have got you close to Keuchel... :(
Agree - I can be wrong but i don't think Keuchel's final price is going to be crazy and would have been safer than the lottery tickets signed
2) Zack Wheeler
3) Rick Porcello
4) Noah Syndergaard
5) Stephen Strasburg
Inconsistent is such a crock of shit. Your numbers are what they are over a 60 start sample size. Wheeler was a top 15 SP in both 2018 and 2019. Pitchers have ups and downs. His numbers were on par (or better than) Syndergaard and 245 million dollar Strasburg while the 2 they added SUCKED. Fans have every right to be upset. The Mets got worse.
And Zack Wheeler gave up 3 or less runs in 22 starts, so yeah Zack Wheeler was a MAJOR reason they won 86 games last year. He gave up 4 or less in an additional 4 starts. So 26 times he went out there and gave the Mets a chance to win.
8 times he allowed 1 or less, 14 starts 2 or less
Every third start? He made 30 starts and allowed 5 or more runs 5 times. Over his last 60 starts he's allowed "5+" runs 8 times.
@Joelsherman1
· 11m
Van Wagenen has said repeatedly wouldn't trade Syndergaard this offseason. But with the cost of free agent SPs, #Mets could be getting big offers. Or Stroman. Or Matz. They could move Gsellman and Wacha becomes a swingman, but BVW indicated yesterday that Wacha would start
Wheeler 5+ runs 5 times
DeGrom 3 times
Gerrit Cole 2 times
Strasburg 4 times
I'm not even giving you fancy starts here. What you've stated is flat out false.
Swap Dom for 1 of Toronto's young catchers, add Betances, and call it an offseason until Cohen's $ comes through.
Ryu 3 times
Bieber 5
So again, this idea Wheeler gets bombed more than other top P just isn't reality. He's a very good #3 with the upside for more. Facts.
I am not a fan of Stroman. I don't like short pitchers with mediocre velocity.
I think he'll be even better next year getting to pitch to Realmuto. Wish the Wilpons wern't so cheap/broke and we were able to retain him.
Wacha 5 times (only made 24 starts)
I think he'll be even better next year getting to pitch to Realmuto. Wish the Wilpons wern't so cheap/broke and we were able to retain him.
That's the point. Nobody is suggesting he's "great" or as good as Strasburg but he's actually closer to a "top" P than a back end arm so questioning why fans would be "upset" is strange.
I am not a fan of Stroman. I don't like short pitchers with mediocre velocity.
Stroman's not my favorite player but trading him for less than we gave up wouldn't be great, and he's still 1 of the probably 20 or 30 starters in baseball capable of putting up an all star caliber year and coming up big in playoff games. That's 1 area where he's proven he can step up whereas Wheeler is just untested.
The obvious move was to resign Wheeler with his salary slot and let Kay take the 5th spot in the rotation for the minimum. Even at the AAV Wheeler got from Philly:
$23m Wheeler + Kay (min) < $12m Stroman + $10m Porcello + $3m Wacha
Why BVW chose door #2 and giving up SWR is beyond me.
Just because he doesn't have a fancy nickname doesn't mean he hasn't been really good for us recently.
Where we differ is I do think Stroman was a pre-emptive move to guard against losing him (Mets weren’t even in a playoff race when they traded for him) and BVW admitted this over the last couple days.
Vargas was our 5th SP for 2/3rds of the season last year so Porcello/Wacha are comparable to that caliber of player.
I don’t think the Mets SP was an issue at all last year (top 3 in the NL) and this current setup is probably pretty close to what we had for most of 2019.
It could very well take us more than a decade to produce another homegrown SP as good as Wheeler or have another one wanting to sign here to the point of giving us the option of refusal. Prior to him and Harvey think about how long ago the last players who fit those categories were. Doc Gooden? Al Leiter?
Ryan,
Zack Wheeler went 6+ innings 23 times out of 30 starts. He went 7+ innings 15 times. You simply aren't being accurate in your statements here. Again, using clear #1 SP Strasburg as an example, Strasburg went 6+ 26 times. 7+ innings 13 times.
Now, if the Mets can get major league talent back for him they should.
I'd even try and include Stroman in an Arenado trade - still saves money for the Rockies - especially long-term and Stroman would be a good trade chip at the deadline.
Stroman, JD Davis, Dom Smith and a B prospect for Arenado and Jake McGee.
It doesn't help the Mets get under the LT, but it might start discussions with the Rockies and if you can add an Arenado you exceed the cap for a year IMO.
The injury history is something I'd be leery of more than his production.
Once he got past the injuries he became a legit top 20 pitcher.
The injuries will always be in the back of my mind.
I don't hate that the Mets didn't sign him at that price, but it's mostly because we as Mets fans have been conditioned to feel like it's Wheeler or Syndergaard. and in that case I'd prefer Syndergaard.
@Joelsherman1
· 11m
Van Wagenen has said repeatedly wouldn't trade Syndergaard this offseason. But with the cost of free agent SPs, #Mets could be getting big offers. Or Stroman. Or Matz. They could move Gsellman and Wacha becomes a swingman, but BVW indicated yesterday that Wacha would start
I would jump on a good offer for Matz. I think there is a perception that he is better than the results show. Porcello replaces his production in the rotation.
I think we'd all agree that the NYY are a well run organization that does everything they can to acquire the best players they can and win.
What SP have they been able to find in the past 10 years better than Wheeler? And what did they cost?
If it were easy to find guys who could "pitch well all season long" every team would have JDG. But they don't, do they? That's why they just wrote a $300m check.
"Not sure why
ryanmkeane : 9:56 am : link : reply
people are pissed at losing Wheeler."
And I've explained why.
I think the proper comparison should be what is the drop off, if any, between Wheeler and Stroman. I don’t think, without getting into their respective stats (ie 2017 and 2018), there’s much of a drop off at all. I believe Stroman could reasonably outpitch Zack the next few years. And there may be some upside to Stroman over Zack.
Well, the pen is also the same disaster from last year. Apparently they are 2 million from the luxury cap (in reality we know they aren't due to insurance payments, but the wilpons think we are all stupid), so there doesn't seems to be any money to improve the pen.
Crossing fingers and hoping that Diaz and Familia improve isn't the best plan...
I think the proper comparison should be what is the drop off, if any, between Wheeler and Stroman. I don’t think, without getting into their respective stats (ie 2017 and 2018), there’s much of a drop off at all. I believe Stroman could reasonably outpitch Zack the next few years. And there may be some upside to Stroman over Zack.
Stroman is a FA himself after the season so "next few years" doesn't mean much. If he "outpitches" Wheeler then aren't you then giving him 24+ million per season and if he doesn't pitch well enough for that... then you downgraded. This idea Stroman is a cheaper option is true... for 2020 but only marginally given the fact the Mets could have backloaded Wheeler's first year. Stroman is projected to make 12 million this season and then the Mets will either lose him or give him market rate.
I think the proper comparison should be what is the drop off, if any, between Wheeler and Stroman. I don’t think, without getting into their respective stats (ie 2017 and 2018), there’s much of a drop off at all. I believe Stroman could reasonably outpitch Zack the next few years. And there may be some upside to Stroman over Zack.
I don't disagree with anything you said, but they only have Stroman under contract for 1 year. And if he outpitches what Wheeler has done, he too will get paid.
After what Cole and Strass got, Wheeler at $20M is a steal. And Dan hits on the pertinent point, he has the ability to get better. You're not going to win this argument.
Only 3 players currently under contract. JDG, Cano, and Familia. Well Brach at $1.25M too. Ramos has a club option.
That is why IMO it makes a ton of sense to exceed the LT this year. the first time penalty is tiny (like 20% of the overage or something like that). So if they go even $20M over the LT it's $4M fine).
It should not limit what the Mets do this year, and if it does then it's like high schoolers running the front office. if the Mets are competitive they'll easily make up that $4M.
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan
Quote:
makes Stroman better or more upside? career 3.64 FIP (3.72 in 2019), highest fWAR season ever was 3.9, Wheeler career 3.71 FIP (3.25 and 3.48 the past 2), 4.7 fWAR in 2019. What in Stroman's resume suggests he's better or has more upside? Last 2 seasons Zack Wheeler 8.9 fWAR, Stroman last 3 seasons 8.7. Hope and prayer? Because the numbers almost across the board favor Wheeler.
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan
1. Adjustment to an easier offensive league? That's a new one.
2. YOU are the one who suggested he had more upside than Wheeler. I'm asking for evidence of this. Based on what metric? What is this based on? Where is the improvement?
Career vs. 2019
k/9- 7.36 vs. 7.76
bb/9 2.59 vs. 2.83
FIP 3.64 vs. 3.72
Again, please provide me with something that would suggest Stroman is better with more "upside" than Zack Wheeler. Thanks.
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan
He was awful in 2018. That said, your points are fair, but I'm not bullish on small power pitchers aging well. So if the choice was Stroman v Wheeler, I'm taking Wheeler every time.
I also said I “suspect” he is the better pitcher over the next few years. None of your stats can DISPROVE that. But having an argument or debate about something I SUSPECT OR SUGGESTED is ridiculous. If you disagree, then just disagree and move on. This pencil pushing thing you keep doing is tired and played out.
I also said I “suspect” he is the better pitcher over the next few years. None of your stats can DISPROVE that. But having an argument or debate about something I SUSPECT OR SUGGESTED is ridiculous. If you disagree, then just disagree and move on. This pencil pushing thing you keep doing is tired and played out.
Shtick? I'm asking for the basis for you opinion. I'm not using fancy numbers. What is "more upside" based on? So far you've given me nothing other than hope. I'm not allowed to wonder what "more upside" comes from? Pencil pushing? Lame response. You made a claim and have yet to give any reason why. Got it, you "hope" Stroman is better than Wheeler based on.. hope.
I also said I “suspect” he is the better pitcher over the next few years. None of your stats can DISPROVE that. But having an argument or debate about something I SUSPECT OR SUGGESTED is ridiculous. If you disagree, then just disagree and move on. This pencil pushing thing you keep doing is tired and played out.
"And there may be some upside to Stroman over Zack."
I'm not allowed to ask for a reason why? You didn't give any and still haven't. "I just think" is basically what your evidence was. That's fine but that's it.
Wacha 4.78
Matz 4.34
Stroman 3.90
Syndergaard 3.69
DeGrom 3.00
They better score a ton of runs, or Steamer be wrong or this could be a very ugly season.
@SNYtv
·
8m
The Mets reportedly would not trade Brandon Nimmo straight up for Starling Marte https://on.sny.tv/mXgzKsI
"Opinion" and "opinion backed up by something" are not the same.
"I think Daniel Jones will be better than Lamar Jackson" SHOULD be challenged. Maybe I have something to back it up. If I just say "well, I think his transition to the NFL will make a huge difference" vs. "look at the numbers the past few seasons, look how they compare in xyz".. there is a major difference. You called Wheeler a back end starter, that isn't correct by ANY standard. You said he didn't pitch past the 5th inning enough, I pointed out that wasn't right. You think people should just claim things without being fact checked? That's what we are doing now?
fWAR uses FIP aka a better tool than ersa. Wheeler posted 4.7 fWAR. Good luck finding anyone in baseball who thinks ERA is a better metric than FIP.
Link - ( New Window )
I am not a fan of Stroman. I don't like short pitchers with mediocre velocity.
I started to evaluate your short pitcher mediocre velocity statement. I might argue the opposite. At least he is pitching to his body limitations. I would worry more about his arm and injuries if what you said was true. Note I have no real examples of either case.
Instead of pulling stats and pretending those are iron clad proof that what I was suggested isn’t reasonable or a possible outcome or just plain wrong. I would be more than happy to engage and entertain a conversation like that then what you’re doing on this board.
Instead of pulling stats and pretending those are iron clad proof that what I was suggested isn’t reasonable or a possible outcome or just plain wrong. I would be more than happy to engage and entertain a conversation like that then what you’re doing on this board.
How was my initial question anything but?
"What
DanMetroMan : 11:31 am : link : reply
makes Stroman better or more upside? career 3.64 FIP (3.72 in 2019), highest fWAR season ever was 3.9, Wheeler career 3.71 FIP (3.25 and 3.48 the past 2), 4.7 fWAR in 2019. What in Stroman's resume suggests he's better or has more upside? Last 2 seasons Zack Wheeler 8.9 fWAR, Stroman last 3 seasons 8.7. Hope and prayer? Because the numbers almost across the board favor Wheeler."
Your reponse was the rude one.
"
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan"
Nice try again
ryan,
You're going to be on your own on this one. EVERYONE accepts FIP is the superior stat. If you disagree on that one there is nothing else to discuss.
1. Verlander
2. Minor
3. Lynn
4. DeGrom
5. Cole
6. Strasburg
7. Eduardo Rodriguez (Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez)
8. Jack Flaherty
Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez the 7th best SP in baseball, Jack Flaherty #8
1. Verlander
2. Minor
3. Lynn
4. DeGrom
5. Cole
6. Strasburg
7. Eduardo Rodriguez (Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez)
8. Jack Flaherty
Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez the 7th best SP in baseball, Jack Flaherty #8
So you're telling me I'm supposed to believe Lance Lynn is a better pitcher than Jacob deGrom?
So you're telling me I'm supposed to believe Lance Lynn is a better pitcher than Jacob deGrom?
No, he's showing you how absurd it is to use ERA as a primary stat.
Quote:
is the top 8 using ERA over FIP in 2019
1. Verlander
2. Minor
3. Lynn
4. DeGrom
5. Cole
6. Strasburg
7. Eduardo Rodriguez (Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez)
8. Jack Flaherty
Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez the 7th best SP in baseball, Jack Flaherty #8
So you're telling me I'm supposed to believe Lance Lynn is a better pitcher than Jacob deGrom?
Huh? That's bWAR, the number YOU gave us. fWAR (which uses FIP) has Jacob DeGrom as the #2 P in baseball in 2019 behind Gerrit Cole. Thanks for making my point. bWAR sucks.
1) Cole
2) DeGrom
3) Lynn
4) Scherzer
5) Verlander
6) Morton
7) Strasburg
8) Bieber
Greinke was 9th, Rodriguez 24th, Flaherty 14th
@Jacob_Resnick
The #Mets have selected RHP Adam Oller from the Giants in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
12:21 PM · Dec 12, 2019·Twitter Web App
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
8m
#Mets minor league OF Jason Krizan was selected by the Twins in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
·
23m
The #Mets did not lose any players in the major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft.
Newton is a ++ athlete but nobody was taking him and keeping him. The only outcome other than this one would have been a sad one for the kid. An entire year lost sitting on a bench when he needs a LOT of reps. Good for him and the Mets.
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Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Van Wagenen hinted the Mets aren't looking for additional bullpen help at this point. He views Lugo and Gsellman as bullpen additions, although technically they never left to become starters.
Quote:
But unfortunately, you typically go on a rant with a bunch of stats... TRYING to incite an argument or debate that no one is really having with you. However more importantly, your tone on here is condescending. Maybe that was cool in HS or college but we all are MEN here. So if you want to ask me a follow up question then just ask me a follow up question. Something like “What leads you to think that Stroman has more upside than Wheeler?”
Instead of pulling stats and pretending those are iron clad proof that what I was suggested isn’t reasonable or a possible outcome or just plain wrong. I would be more than happy to engage and entertain a conversation like that then what you’re doing on this board.
How was my initial question anything but?
"What
DanMetroMan : 11:31 am : link : reply
makes Stroman better or more upside? career 3.64 FIP (3.72 in 2019), highest fWAR season ever was 3.9, Wheeler career 3.71 FIP (3.25 and 3.48 the past 2), 4.7 fWAR in 2019. What in Stroman's resume suggests he's better or has more upside? Last 2 seasons Zack Wheeler 8.9 fWAR, Stroman last 3 seasons 8.7. Hope and prayer? Because the numbers almost across the board favor Wheeler."
Your reponse was the rude one.
"
That’s cute Dan. I specifically stated for example looking at years 2017 and 2018 because 2019 was CLEARLY an adjustment, ie switching leagues, adjusting to new/unknown hitters, and pressing. Stroman was clearly too pumped with adrenaline for his starts. Something stats won’t show.
But more importantly, pitching in a league with no DH and a different ballpark makes no difference? At 28 yrs old, Stroman can’t get better? Ok Dan"
Nice try again
Your initial question ended with “hope and prayer” which suggests a couple things. That I had no factual or reasoned basis for my comment or statement. And 2) that your recited stats are the end all or be all on the topic. If stats told the whole story, then you would be a GM of a baseball team Dan. Because we all know, you have stats for days!!!
But we all know or should know, it takes a little more than just regurgitating stats. We have a ground ball pitcher in Stroman switching leagues with no DH to contend with now, played on some poor Blue Jays teams, and still reasonably young, etc. So suggesting there’s upside here is reasonable. Wheeler is Wheeler. That much we know.
Matt Ehalt
@MattEhalt
·
1m
Not gonna lie, not sure the last time I heard a team say that keeping their closer as a reliever is an "addition"
The Mets potentially punting on adding any bullpen help is the opposite of eliminating ifs.
Yimi Garcia, a nice cheap BP option to the Marlins
Up until now I felt like give this guy some time. Let's see his plan.
Now I'm filled with anxiety - this guy needs to be relieved of his job before he does generational damage.
holy shit.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
14m
Van Wagenen: "We feel that the volatility in the reliever market, which we experienced last year, makes investment into that market a little bit riskier."
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler at 23.5 million per season is 12th most in baseball and 70th biggest contract given out in the history of the sport. He only has 2 years of success under his belt. If he posted a 3rd or 4th season exactly like the first 2 he would have received that much more.
Sort of like how the other day we couldn’t afford Porcello without trading pieces away and then we sign him and Wacha.
At least I hope...
But I think there’s still more there. Zack Wheeler, as currently constituted, does everything a bit better than average. He strikes out a few more batters than average, walks a few less, and suppresses hard contact just a smidge. That makes for an above-average pitcher, of course. But it doesn’t make for a world-devouring ace, the kind who opposing batters fear and hometown fans assume will never lose."
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Quote:
I don't care if you bring on the onslaught of "stats" from other pitchers that aren't consistent...that wasn't the point. And using full season stats are good and all but it doesn't always tell the full story.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler at 23.5 million per season is 12th most in baseball and 70th biggest contract given out in the history of the sport. He only has 2 years of success under his belt. If he posted a 3rd or 4th season exactly like the first 2 he would have received that much more.
Fair point. Listen, as I said. I like Wheeler but I also feel like he was more inconsistent than most. At some point, you need to stop talking about potential with a 30 year old pitcher. If he every puts it together over a full season then we are talking...but with Wheeler, I just don't feel that the overall stats for a season tell the full story with him. And I've watched nearly every single one of his starts. I think that Stroman could fill in quite nicely, if not be even better than Wheeler.
What do think Betances gets 1 yr 10mil? He’s who I wanted and heard he’s close with Beltran
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
14m
Van Wagenen: "We feel that the volatility in the reliever market, which we experienced last year, makes investment into that market a little bit riskier."
See, this is the type of quote that I can't stand. I know BVW is a mouthpiece for the Wilpon's and can't be out of here soon enough, but what the hell does that even mean? That is such agent speak. So like last year, instead of investing in free agency at a position of need, you would rather trade your top prospects to get a closer who is under cost control?
Quote:
Was hoping we could nab him. Lost year but a torn lat is muscle related and the Achilles is fluky/not arm related. I see him bouncing back big time.
What do think Betances gets 1 yr 10mil? He’s who I wanted and heard he’s close with Beltran
I think I saw MLBTR suggest a 6 mil base with heavy incentives making it as high as 12-13. But who knows now? Prices are getting ridiculous this off-season.
The volatility is priced in, unless you overpay for a reliever like he did last year with Diaz, or were ignorant of that fact like he was last year. And if Diaz was a massive overpay of resources, wouldn't that mean Wilson was a huge steal for his price? Like, easily, BVW's best FA signing last year?
Not getting Betances isn't the end of the world but he is by far the best option because healthy is as proven of a player in the role we need as you can find. If they don't get him I'd hope they go for Daniel Hudson or a couple guys who fit that profile of with upside converting to relievers.
Wacha 4.78
Matz 4.34
Stroman 3.90
Syndergaard 3.69
DeGrom 3.00
They better score a ton of runs, or Steamer be wrong or this could be a very ugly season.
Compare that to other rotations and, besides a few, I think that's actually pretty good considering how offense heavy the league has been recently.
the signing never made any sense (and it's not second guessing).
Very few fans on here even attempted to pretend to like that move.
The problem as always is not reinvesting saved money and again underinvesting in the BP and on the field behind the starters. Sign Betances. Get a strong defensive catcher, even if it's just Maldonado on a 1 year deal. Those are 2 easy moves that would credibly in my mind make this a better, deeper, team than they were last year. Without having traded off any more prospects.
The run in August coincided with a huge defensive improvement up the middle (Cano out, Lagares in, Rosario improved). Adding 2 elite defenders into the mix (Maldonado, the CF from Houston) could go a long way to improving this team even in part time work if they don't hit a ton. Panik and Lagares certainly didn't hit a ton either.
Act like a New York team for fuck’s sake!
The problem as always is not reinvesting saved money and again underinvesting in the BP and on the field behind the starters. Sign Betances. Get a strong defensive catcher, even if it's just Maldonado on a 1 year deal. Those are 2 easy moves that would credibly in my mind make this a better, deeper, team than they were last year. Without having traded off any more prospects.
The run in August coincided with a huge defensive improvement up the middle (Cano out, Lagares in, Rosario improved). Adding 2 elite defenders into the mix (Maldonado, the CF from Houston) could go a long way to improving this team even in part time work if they don't hit a ton. Panik and Lagares certainly didn't hit a ton either.
Another great post from you Eric. You are on a roll.
I think you diagnosed exactly what BVW is doing.
I would like to see the Mets sign Vogt. He is a LH hitting catcher. Not great at throwing runners out but otherwise strong defensively and great working with pitchers. Giants staff loved throwing to him.
Quote:
Porcello 4.79
Wacha 4.78
Matz 4.34
Stroman 3.90
Syndergaard 3.69
DeGrom 3.00
They better score a ton of runs, or Steamer be wrong or this could be a very ugly season.
Compare that to other rotations and, besides a few, I think that's actually pretty good considering how offense heavy the league has been recently.
The Mets finished 7th in runs scored... in the NL, the rotation is worse on paper and the pen is the same. 86 wins last year, how can anyone currently make an argument this is a playoff caliber team is last year wasn't? Forget Wheeler, Vargas outpitched both SP the Mets added.
Damn it. I missed that.
The Mets should be talking to Toronto about one of their 2 C.
It was also originally reported as a ten million dollar deal, which would have been ludicrous.
You have to wonder if Wacha would have signed if he knew Mets were also going to sign Porcello. BVW might have pulled a fast one.
Villar, Aguilar, Garcia all for "nothing"
The Mets should be talking to Toronto about one of their 2 C.
What do you think it would take to get McGuire: Does Dom and Gimenez get it done? He did not really hit that great in the minors.
Quote:
got 1 year 3 million.
The Mets should be talking to Toronto about one of their 2 C.
What do you think it would take to get McGuire: Does Dom and Gimenez get it done? He did not really hit that great in the minors.
I wouldn't give them both up for McGuire but I'd do either one plus a lesser piece (preferably Dom to Gimenez) but if Toronto is rebuilding and wants to talk Giles in a deal involving both I'd be all ears. Wouldn't hate Jansen either (might be an even better get honestly).
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
Mets aren't close to a Starling Marte trade, a source said. And it's not clear they ever will be, as they don't see Marte as a huge upgrade over the Nimmo/Marisnick combo — especially for whatever he would cost.
Further, Mets are disinclined to include Nimmo in that or any deal."
Maybe the first smart Mets "decision" I've heard this off-season. Nimmo for Marte makes absolutely no sense and their closer (aka pen help from them) belongs in Alcatraz #Mets
Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
·
1m
Sources: Mets have talked to the Rangers about right-hander reliever Jose Leclerc.
Leclerc, 25, had 4.33 ERA, 100 K in 68 innings in 2019
@Ken_Rosenthal
was the first to mention that the Rangers and Mets had talked about a deal potentially including Dom Smith and Jed Lowrie.
So really they can't do any more deals unless it is something like Dan suggested above, with getting a cost controlled catcher like one of the guys from Toronto.
I think using a player like Dom to move a salary like Lowrie's is a bad move longterm. This is not a team guaranteed to make the playoffs. See how they start the season before you start giving away young talent to move short-term contracts.
Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
·
1m
Sources: Mets have talked to the Rangers about right-hander reliever Jose Leclerc.
Leclerc, 25, had 4.33 ERA, 100 K in 68 innings in 2019
@Ken_Rosenthal
was the first to mention that the Rangers and Mets had talked about a deal potentially including Dom Smith and Jed Lowrie.
Leclerc is good. Would be a nice add.
If we trade both Smith and Lowrie, we're left with, Mcneil, Rosario, Cano, Alonso, Davis in the IF. And, Conforto, Nimmo, the Astros guy we added, Cespedes and Davis in OF.
Our depth looks a lot thinner after a deal like that. Cano is likely to be on the DL at some point. Nimmo and Conforto havn't exactly been healthy all the time. Cespedes is obviously a question mark. McNeil seemed like he needed rest days last year at times.
Are we really sure we want to give up all of that depth just to add an RP? Why not keep the depth and just sign Betances without giving anything up?
I agree. Not another reliever with control problems. However, it might be too tempting for BVW to turn down since it would free up the extra cap space, while also adding another arm to the bullpen. Lowrie really has no place on this team
Quote:
scares me. 5.1 BB/9 in 2019, career 5.6. Not saying I'd hate Dom and Lowrie for him but I could also see it working out poorly for us and well for Texas.
I agree. Not another reliever with control problems. However, it might be too tempting for BVW to turn down since it would free up the extra cap space, while also adding another arm to the bullpen. Lowrie really has no place on this team
disagree, he's the Mets only real depth in the infield.
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@Tucker_TnL
·
17h
UPDATE- In this decade alone, Scott Boras has negotiated
Holliday, 7y / 120M
Werth, 7y / 126M
Fielder, 9y / 214M
Andrus, 8y / 120M
Ellsbury, 7y / 153M
Choo, 7y / 130M
Scherzer, 7y / 210M
Harper, 13y / 330M
Strasburg, 7y / 245M
Cole, 9y / 324M
Rendon, 7y / 245M
2.2 BILLION+
Lowrie really has no place on this team
disagree, he's the Mets only real depth in the infield.
He is only depth at SS.
If Cano goes down, McNeil goes to 2B and JD to 3B.
If McNeil goes down, JD takes his spot
So, Lowrie only really will be used extensively if Rosario goes down and he played in 154 and 157 games the last two years.
Plus, I doubt Lowrie can play SS full time at a high level any more. He is obviously better defensively than JD at 3B. But they have Luis G to be a defensive replacement.
So, yeah, Lowrie is a good guy to have but in no way is he essential even as a backup. Then, if you factor in that he missed almost all of last season with a variety of injuries and he is due to make 11.5 million, you trade him in a heartbeat if anybody wants him.
Then you take that money and sign Betances.
Oooohhh.. Fun.
1.) deGrom
2.) Syndergaard
3.) Stroman
4.) Porcello
5.) Wacha
6.) Familia
7.) Diaz
8.) Brach
9.) Cespedes
10.) Conforto
11.) McNeil
12.) Cano
13.) Alonso
14.) Ramos
15.) Lowrie
Brach was the trickiest!
5m
FWIW, Jeff Wilpon was not at the Winter Meetings this year.
Quote:
Lowrie really has no place on this team
disagree, he's the Mets only real depth in the infield.
He is only depth at SS.
If Cano goes down, McNeil goes to 2B and JD to 3B.
If McNeil goes down, JD takes his spot
So, Lowrie only really will be used extensively if Rosario goes down and he played in 154 and 157 games the last two years.
Plus, I doubt Lowrie can play SS full time at a high level any more. He is obviously better defensively than JD at 3B. But they have Luis G to be a defensive replacement.
So, yeah, Lowrie is a good guy to have but in no way is he essential even as a backup. Then, if you factor in that he missed almost all of last season with a variety of injuries and he is due to make 11.5 million, you trade him in a heartbeat if anybody wants him.
Then you take that money and sign Betances.
not certain I want JD playing extensively at 3B. That feeling could change but right now hard pass on that idea.
Also can we not shift McNeil around again like we've been doing, give him 3b full time.
Thats a ton of depth and I guarantee 3 regular everyday players will be out at the same time this coming year, at least once.
Lowrie backs up 3B, SS, and 2B. Dom backs up CO/1B but is also the primary LH bat off the bench. JD backs up CO/3B and is probably starting multiple times a week resting Ces.
Marisnick plays against lefties and comes in late in just about every game with a lead.
Thats a really nice bench. Leave it alone.
That's it.
Im not asking a lot am I? lol
That's it.
Im not asking a lot am I? lol
Betances and Maldonado would be nice.
Those Debt payments are what killed this organization. And they were too stupid to be ahead of the curve in analytics like the Rays.
Without the debt payments though, they almost certainly would be turning a profit.
Cohen can't get here soon enough. We have an incredibly rabid fanbase that will turn out with a winner.
Thats a ton of depth and I guarantee 3 regular everyday players will be out at the same time this coming year, at least once.
Lowrie backs up 3B, SS, and 2B. Dom backs up CO/1B but is also the primary LH bat off the bench. JD backs up CO/3B and is probably starting multiple times a week resting Ces.
Marisnick plays against lefties and comes in late in just about every game with a lead.
Thats a really nice bench. Leave it alone.
1000% agree, the lux tax will cost peanuts vs what they will make in a winning season's revenue.
alot of RP's still available, some can probably be got cheaply or with minor league deals.
Cischek, Joe Smith, Vizcaino, Pat Neshek
Quote:
And one defensive backup C that can maybe hit a little.
That's it.
Im not asking a lot am I? lol
Betances and Maldonado would be nice.
Sold.
In 98 PA's for the Astros he went on to post a .781 OPS and on the season he was as usual 1 of the best defensive C's overall (+8 DRS). He made like $3m total last year, so presumably this was a decision over $1m.
Not sure which reliever would have made the most sense, but flash to September 3rd vs. the Nats and a lot of guys could have been the difference in both of those team's trajectories from that moment forward. As could have firing Callaway in June like he should have been.
A lot of "what ifs" from last year unfortunately, and all linked to shit decisions made but our beloved CEO, who fortunately had "prior obligations" instead of attending the WM like usual this year.
Certainly possible, but presumably there's something there if the Astros keep adding him and getting to WS with him. The C position is a complete wasteland.
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guessing but baseball prospectus's catching metrics don't like Maldonado at all and the Mets have hired people from BP since Brodie was hired so I'm guessing they like him less than you'd think.
Certainly possible, but presumably there's something there if the Astros keep adding him and getting to WS with him. The C position is a complete wasteland.
BP's system really, really dislike him.. not saying they or the Mets are right, it's just a theory I have.
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So while his 2019 metrics very well could have been crap, whatever he had accrued by July probably needed to be taken with a grain of salt not only because they were SSS but because he mostly pitched for a new team, with a terrible pitching staff he was new to, and without a ST.
By statcast Maldonado was still top of the league in pop time and arm so whatever regression he had doesn't seem to have been due to a loss of athletic ability which is usually the main concern with aging regression.
So while his 2019 metrics very well could have been crap, whatever he had accrued by July probably needed to be taken with a grain of salt not only because they were SSS but because he mostly pitched for a new team, with a terrible pitching staff he was new to, and without a ST.
By statcast Maldonado was still top of the league in pop time and arm so whatever regression he had doesn't seem to have been due to a loss of athletic ability which is usually the main concern with aging regression.
BP had him 86th in framing runs (which is obviously very bad) and 34th in overall defense (FRAA) for whatever the reason their metrics are very low on him.
Those Debt payments are what killed this organization. And they were too stupid to be ahead of the curve in analytics like the Rays.
Without the debt payments though, they almost certainly would be turning a profit.
Cohen can't get here soon enough. We have an incredibly rabid fanbase that will turn out with a winner.
They didn't. It's an accounting trick. They are not counting the increase in the team's value, just revenue.
Dan, quick question. Do you copy and paste what you put on twitter? Just wondering why some of your posts look like a twitter post and some are normal.
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What does Jacob Stallings cost @Mets? Better hitter than Nido and both @baseballpro and statcorner seem very high on his work behind the plate. No real future in Pittsburgh #Mets
Dan, quick question. Do you copy and paste what you put on twitter? Just wondering why some of your posts look like a twitter post and some are normal.
Only when I use my phone which I’m doing right now with my computer doing some weird error check thing for the past few hours.
Considering he is likely to come cheap I understand getting Aguilar. I just don't think there is much there and he benefitted from playing home games in Milwaukee. Sharp was one of the few names in the Rule 5 Draft I liked this year, but I figured that he would not fall to the Mets even if we had a slot available for him.
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liking what the Marlins have done so far adding Villar, Garcia, Aguilar and Sharp
Considering he is likely to come cheap I understand getting Aguilar. I just don't think there is much there and he benefitted from playing home games in Milwaukee. Sharp was one of the few names in the Rule 5 Draft I liked this year, but I figured that he would not fall to the Mets even if we had a slot available for him.
Aguilar is nothing special but he's going to cost the Marlins pennies and put up a 3.1 fWAR season in 2018, maybe it was a total fluke but for "free" he was a nice add. Villar was a steal and Garcia could be one as well.
@martinonyc
Sources: The Mets have reached an agreement with Yoenis Cespedes to amend his contract and 2020 salary. Still working on details.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Yoenis Cespedes and the New York Mets have agreed on an amended contract, a source tells ESPN. While he remains with the team, the settlement significantly lower his salary from the planned $29.5 million.
Do that and swap Dom or JDD for 1 of the Toronto catchers (or another strong defensive catcher) and even with Wheeler leaving I'd consider this offseason a major success. Especially knowing the end of the Wilpon era is near.
@AnthonyDiComo
The reduction in Céspedes' 2020 salary is "significant," a source said. He had been due to make $29.5 million before this restructuring.
@AnthonyDiComo
The reduction in Céspedes' 2020 salary is "significant," a source said. He had been due to make $29.5 million before this restructuring.
Wow, that's huge! Definitely didn't see that happening. That can change a lot going forward.
That would be awesome if they actually spend the money, but I'm too cynical - those fuckers are probably just pocket it. Hopefully I'm wrong...
Jacob Resnick
@Jacob_Resnick
The details on Michael Wacha’s incentives:
He gets a “point” for each start or relief appearance of at least three innings. He will earn $500K at points 10, 14, 18, and 20 and at each additional point through 30.
He would earn $250K for 40, 45, 50, and 55 relief appearances.