has pretty much came out and admitted that getting burned by Familia and Diaz last year ("volatility in the reliever market") has impacted his willingness to sign relievers.
Up until now I felt like give this guy some time. Let's see his plan.
Now I'm filled with anxiety - this guy needs to be relieved of his job before he does generational damage.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
14m
Van Wagenen: "We feel that the volatility in the reliever market, which we experienced last year, makes investment into that market a little bit riskier."
I don't care if you bring on the onslaught of "stats" from other pitchers that aren't consistent...that wasn't the point. And using full season stats are good and all but it doesn't always tell the full story.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
I don't care if you bring on the onslaught of "stats" from other pitchers that aren't consistent...that wasn't the point. And using full season stats are good and all but it doesn't always tell the full story.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler at 23.5 million per season is 12th most in baseball and 70th biggest contract given out in the history of the sport. He only has 2 years of success under his belt. If he posted a 3rd or 4th season exactly like the first 2 he would have received that much more.
"Any day week month now, Zack Wheeler is going to sign a contract that compensates him like a very good pitcher, and he’ll deserve it. He’s been consistently above average the past two years, the kind of guy you’d love to have as a No. 2 starter and one who can fake it as a No. 1. In short, he’s been what the Mets hoped for when he was a highly regarded prospect, after a brief detour into arm-injury-land.
But I think there’s still more there. Zack Wheeler, as currently constituted, does everything a bit better than average. He strikes out a few more batters than average, walks a few less, and suppresses hard contact just a smidge. That makes for an above-average pitcher, of course. But it doesn’t make for a world-devouring ace, the kind who opposing batters fear and hometown fans assume will never lose." Link - ( New Window )
I don't care if you bring on the onslaught of "stats" from other pitchers that aren't consistent...that wasn't the point. And using full season stats are good and all but it doesn't always tell the full story.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler at 23.5 million per season is 12th most in baseball and 70th biggest contract given out in the history of the sport. He only has 2 years of success under his belt. If he posted a 3rd or 4th season exactly like the first 2 he would have received that much more.
Fair point. Listen, as I said. I like Wheeler but I also feel like he was more inconsistent than most. At some point, you need to stop talking about potential with a 30 year old pitcher. If he every puts it together over a full season then we are talking...but with Wheeler, I just don't feel that the overall stats for a season tell the full story with him. And I've watched nearly every single one of his starts. I think that Stroman could fill in quite nicely, if not be even better than Wheeler.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
14m
Van Wagenen: "We feel that the volatility in the reliever market, which we experienced last year, makes investment into that market a little bit riskier."
See, this is the type of quote that I can't stand. I know BVW is a mouthpiece for the Wilpon's and can't be out of here soon enough, but what the hell does that even mean? That is such agent speak. So like last year, instead of investing in free agency at a position of need, you would rather trade your top prospects to get a closer who is under cost control?
Was hoping we could nab him. Lost year but a torn lat is muscle related and the Achilles is fluky/not arm related. I see him bouncing back big time.
What do think Betances gets 1 yr 10mil? He’s who I wanted and heard he’s close with Beltran
I think I saw MLBTR suggest a 6 mil base with heavy incentives making it as high as 12-13. But who knows now? Prices are getting ridiculous this off-season.
BVW both says and does dumb shit but I'm ok with the offseason so far Â
Being out on Betances and citing "volatility" in the reliever market as a reason not to spend any money there beyond minimum pickups (like Brach) is moronic and flies in the face of all recent evidence. Yes there is volatility, that's why even the best relievers make less money than other positions and nobody (except bvw) gives up top prospects for relievers.
The volatility is priced in, unless you overpay for a reliever like he did last year with Diaz, or were ignorant of that fact like he was last year. And if Diaz was a massive overpay of resources, wouldn't that mean Wilson was a huge steal for his price? Like, easily, BVW's best FA signing last year?
Not getting Betances isn't the end of the world but he is by far the best option because healthy is as proven of a player in the role we need as you can find. If they don't get him I'd hope they go for Daniel Hudson or a couple guys who fit that profile of with upside converting to relievers.
they get hurt most frequently and cost the most money. I have no issue if they want to bet on JDG/Thor as true aces worthy of $100m early extensions and then build a better team around them because dollar for dollar $120m can be more productively spend on position players get hurt less and BP arms who are cheaper. Building a great BP and good team around 2 aces and some cheaper innings eaters would be perfectly sound.
The problem as always is not reinvesting saved money and again underinvesting in the BP and on the field behind the starters. Sign Betances. Get a strong defensive catcher, even if it's just Maldonado on a 1 year deal. Those are 2 easy moves that would credibly in my mind make this a better, deeper, team than they were last year. Without having traded off any more prospects.
The run in August coincided with a huge defensive improvement up the middle (Cano out, Lagares in, Rosario improved). Adding 2 elite defenders into the mix (Maldonado, the CF from Houston) could go a long way to improving this team even in part time work if they don't hit a ton. Panik and Lagares certainly didn't hit a ton either.
they get hurt most frequently and cost the most money. I have no issue if they want to bet on JDG/Thor as true aces worthy of $100m early extensions and then build a better team around them because dollar for dollar $120m can be more productively spend on position players get hurt less and BP arms who are cheaper. Building a great BP and good team around 2 aces and some cheaper innings eaters would be perfectly sound.
The problem as always is not reinvesting saved money and again underinvesting in the BP and on the field behind the starters. Sign Betances. Get a strong defensive catcher, even if it's just Maldonado on a 1 year deal. Those are 2 easy moves that would credibly in my mind make this a better, deeper, team than they were last year. Without having traded off any more prospects.
The run in August coincided with a huge defensive improvement up the middle (Cano out, Lagares in, Rosario improved). Adding 2 elite defenders into the mix (Maldonado, the CF from Houston) could go a long way to improving this team even in part time work if they don't hit a ton. Panik and Lagares certainly didn't hit a ton either.
Another great post from you Eric. You are on a roll.
I think you diagnosed exactly what BVW is doing.
I would like to see the Mets sign Vogt. He is a LH hitting catcher. Not great at throwing runners out but otherwise strong defensively and great working with pitchers. Giants staff loved throwing to him.
They better score a ton of runs, or Steamer be wrong or this could be a very ugly season.
Compare that to other rotations and, besides a few, I think that's actually pretty good considering how offense heavy the league has been recently.
The Mets finished 7th in runs scored... in the NL, the rotation is worse on paper and the pen is the same. 86 wins last year, how can anyone currently make an argument this is a playoff caliber team is last year wasn't? Forget Wheeler, Vargas outpitched both SP the Mets added.
is lucky to have received what he did. He was legit one of the bottom 5 SP in baseball and finished the year with shoulder issues. He was probably worried he'd have to settle for a minor league deal/ST invite.
context 14 SP's have signed as FA this off-season, Wacha's 3 guaranteed was 2 million less than the 2nd lowest figure (Wainwright who took less to stay in St. Louis) and 5 million per less than the next SP (Lyles). He saw the market and this is all he could get. Would love for it to work out but at best he tosses up a half season worth of mediocre starts and that represents value. SP Depth remains a major issue despite Brodie's absurd 6 4th starters or better claim.
The Mets should be talking to Toronto about one of their 2 C.
What do you think it would take to get McGuire: Does Dom and Gimenez get it done? He did not really hit that great in the minors.
I wouldn't give them both up for McGuire but I'd do either one plus a lesser piece (preferably Dom to Gimenez) but if Toronto is rebuilding and wants to talk Giles in a deal involving both I'd be all ears. Wouldn't hate Jansen either (might be an even better get honestly).
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
Mets aren't close to a Starling Marte trade, a source said. And it's not clear they ever will be, as they don't see Marte as a huge upgrade over the Nimmo/Marisnick combo — especially for whatever he would cost.
Further, Mets are disinclined to include Nimmo in that or any deal."
Maybe the first smart Mets "decision" I've heard this off-season. Nimmo for Marte makes absolutely no sense and their closer (aka pen help from them) belongs in Alcatraz #Mets
Assuming the 3 million is accurate, that puts them 2.5 under.
So really they can't do any more deals unless it is something like Dan suggested above, with getting a cost controlled catcher like one of the guys from Toronto.
I think using a player like Dom to move a salary like Lowrie's is a bad move longterm. This is not a team guaranteed to make the playoffs. See how they start the season before you start giving away young talent to move short-term contracts.
LeClerc has an extremely team-friendly contract, however I think Dom would be a great target for Texas. RP are volatile and LeClerc has had major command issues for the majority of his career. Huge 2018 for sure. Big risk with him. 68.2 innings 33 walks in 2019
Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
·
1m
Sources: Mets have talked to the Rangers about right-hander reliever Jose Leclerc.
Leclerc, 25, had 4.33 ERA, 100 K in 68 innings in 2019
@Ken_Rosenthal
was the first to mention that the Rangers and Mets had talked about a deal potentially including Dom Smith and Jed Lowrie.
Leclerc is good. Would be a nice add.
If we trade both Smith and Lowrie, we're left with, Mcneil, Rosario, Cano, Alonso, Davis in the IF. And, Conforto, Nimmo, the Astros guy we added, Cespedes and Davis in OF.
Our depth looks a lot thinner after a deal like that. Cano is likely to be on the DL at some point. Nimmo and Conforto havn't exactly been healthy all the time. Cespedes is obviously a question mark. McNeil seemed like he needed rest days last year at times.
Are we really sure we want to give up all of that depth just to add an RP? Why not keep the depth and just sign Betances without giving anything up?
scares me. 5.1 BB/9 in 2019, career 5.6. Not saying I'd hate Dom and Lowrie for him but I could also see it working out poorly for us and well for Texas.
scares me. 5.1 BB/9 in 2019, career 5.6. Not saying I'd hate Dom and Lowrie for him but I could also see it working out poorly for us and well for Texas.
I agree. Not another reliever with control problems. However, it might be too tempting for BVW to turn down since it would free up the extra cap space, while also adding another arm to the bullpen. Lowrie really has no place on this team
scares me. 5.1 BB/9 in 2019, career 5.6. Not saying I'd hate Dom and Lowrie for him but I could also see it working out poorly for us and well for Texas.
I agree. Not another reliever with control problems. However, it might be too tempting for BVW to turn down since it would free up the extra cap space, while also adding another arm to the bullpen. Lowrie really has no place on this team
disagree, he's the Mets only real depth in the infield.
and not totally relevant, but Mets have 15 players on their roster that have made at least 1 all start game. That does not include Nimmo, Lugo or J.D. Davis
Yimi Garcia, a nice cheap BP option to the Marlins
Up until now I felt like give this guy some time. Let's see his plan.
Now I'm filled with anxiety - this guy needs to be relieved of his job before he does generational damage.
holy shit.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
14m
Van Wagenen: "We feel that the volatility in the reliever market, which we experienced last year, makes investment into that market a little bit riskier."
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler at 23.5 million per season is 12th most in baseball and 70th biggest contract given out in the history of the sport. He only has 2 years of success under his belt. If he posted a 3rd or 4th season exactly like the first 2 he would have received that much more.
Sort of like how the other day we couldn’t afford Porcello without trading pieces away and then we sign him and Wacha.
At least I hope...
But I think there’s still more there. Zack Wheeler, as currently constituted, does everything a bit better than average. He strikes out a few more batters than average, walks a few less, and suppresses hard contact just a smidge. That makes for an above-average pitcher, of course. But it doesn’t make for a world-devouring ace, the kind who opposing batters fear and hometown fans assume will never lose."
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
I don't care if you bring on the onslaught of "stats" from other pitchers that aren't consistent...that wasn't the point. And using full season stats are good and all but it doesn't always tell the full story.
Wheeler is inconsistent. He's average (at best) April through July...then studly in Aug/Sept. At least in 2019. In 2018 it was just studly in Sept. That tends to skew the overall stats.
Would have loved to keep Wheeler but I don't understand the whole "one of the top pitchers in baseball" thing. It's just not true. Otherwise, I assume he would have been paid more.
Wheeler at 23.5 million per season is 12th most in baseball and 70th biggest contract given out in the history of the sport. He only has 2 years of success under his belt. If he posted a 3rd or 4th season exactly like the first 2 he would have received that much more.
Fair point. Listen, as I said. I like Wheeler but I also feel like he was more inconsistent than most. At some point, you need to stop talking about potential with a 30 year old pitcher. If he every puts it together over a full season then we are talking...but with Wheeler, I just don't feel that the overall stats for a season tell the full story with him. And I've watched nearly every single one of his starts. I think that Stroman could fill in quite nicely, if not be even better than Wheeler.
What do think Betances gets 1 yr 10mil? He’s who I wanted and heard he’s close with Beltran
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
14m
Van Wagenen: "We feel that the volatility in the reliever market, which we experienced last year, makes investment into that market a little bit riskier."
See, this is the type of quote that I can't stand. I know BVW is a mouthpiece for the Wilpon's and can't be out of here soon enough, but what the hell does that even mean? That is such agent speak. So like last year, instead of investing in free agency at a position of need, you would rather trade your top prospects to get a closer who is under cost control?
Quote:
Was hoping we could nab him. Lost year but a torn lat is muscle related and the Achilles is fluky/not arm related. I see him bouncing back big time.
What do think Betances gets 1 yr 10mil? He’s who I wanted and heard he’s close with Beltran
I think I saw MLBTR suggest a 6 mil base with heavy incentives making it as high as 12-13. But who knows now? Prices are getting ridiculous this off-season.
The volatility is priced in, unless you overpay for a reliever like he did last year with Diaz, or were ignorant of that fact like he was last year. And if Diaz was a massive overpay of resources, wouldn't that mean Wilson was a huge steal for his price? Like, easily, BVW's best FA signing last year?
Not getting Betances isn't the end of the world but he is by far the best option because healthy is as proven of a player in the role we need as you can find. If they don't get him I'd hope they go for Daniel Hudson or a couple guys who fit that profile of with upside converting to relievers.
Wacha 4.78
Matz 4.34
Stroman 3.90
Syndergaard 3.69
DeGrom 3.00
They better score a ton of runs, or Steamer be wrong or this could be a very ugly season.
Compare that to other rotations and, besides a few, I think that's actually pretty good considering how offense heavy the league has been recently.
the signing never made any sense (and it's not second guessing).
Very few fans on here even attempted to pretend to like that move.
The problem as always is not reinvesting saved money and again underinvesting in the BP and on the field behind the starters. Sign Betances. Get a strong defensive catcher, even if it's just Maldonado on a 1 year deal. Those are 2 easy moves that would credibly in my mind make this a better, deeper, team than they were last year. Without having traded off any more prospects.
The run in August coincided with a huge defensive improvement up the middle (Cano out, Lagares in, Rosario improved). Adding 2 elite defenders into the mix (Maldonado, the CF from Houston) could go a long way to improving this team even in part time work if they don't hit a ton. Panik and Lagares certainly didn't hit a ton either.
Act like a New York team for fuck’s sake!
The problem as always is not reinvesting saved money and again underinvesting in the BP and on the field behind the starters. Sign Betances. Get a strong defensive catcher, even if it's just Maldonado on a 1 year deal. Those are 2 easy moves that would credibly in my mind make this a better, deeper, team than they were last year. Without having traded off any more prospects.
The run in August coincided with a huge defensive improvement up the middle (Cano out, Lagares in, Rosario improved). Adding 2 elite defenders into the mix (Maldonado, the CF from Houston) could go a long way to improving this team even in part time work if they don't hit a ton. Panik and Lagares certainly didn't hit a ton either.
Another great post from you Eric. You are on a roll.
I think you diagnosed exactly what BVW is doing.
I would like to see the Mets sign Vogt. He is a LH hitting catcher. Not great at throwing runners out but otherwise strong defensively and great working with pitchers. Giants staff loved throwing to him.
Quote:
Porcello 4.79
Wacha 4.78
Matz 4.34
Stroman 3.90
Syndergaard 3.69
DeGrom 3.00
They better score a ton of runs, or Steamer be wrong or this could be a very ugly season.
Compare that to other rotations and, besides a few, I think that's actually pretty good considering how offense heavy the league has been recently.
The Mets finished 7th in runs scored... in the NL, the rotation is worse on paper and the pen is the same. 86 wins last year, how can anyone currently make an argument this is a playoff caliber team is last year wasn't? Forget Wheeler, Vargas outpitched both SP the Mets added.
Damn it. I missed that.
The Mets should be talking to Toronto about one of their 2 C.
It was also originally reported as a ten million dollar deal, which would have been ludicrous.
You have to wonder if Wacha would have signed if he knew Mets were also going to sign Porcello. BVW might have pulled a fast one.
Villar, Aguilar, Garcia all for "nothing"
The Mets should be talking to Toronto about one of their 2 C.
What do you think it would take to get McGuire: Does Dom and Gimenez get it done? He did not really hit that great in the minors.
Quote:
got 1 year 3 million.
The Mets should be talking to Toronto about one of their 2 C.
What do you think it would take to get McGuire: Does Dom and Gimenez get it done? He did not really hit that great in the minors.
I wouldn't give them both up for McGuire but I'd do either one plus a lesser piece (preferably Dom to Gimenez) but if Toronto is rebuilding and wants to talk Giles in a deal involving both I'd be all ears. Wouldn't hate Jansen either (might be an even better get honestly).
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
Mets aren't close to a Starling Marte trade, a source said. And it's not clear they ever will be, as they don't see Marte as a huge upgrade over the Nimmo/Marisnick combo — especially for whatever he would cost.
Further, Mets are disinclined to include Nimmo in that or any deal."
Maybe the first smart Mets "decision" I've heard this off-season. Nimmo for Marte makes absolutely no sense and their closer (aka pen help from them) belongs in Alcatraz #Mets
Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
·
1m
Sources: Mets have talked to the Rangers about right-hander reliever Jose Leclerc.
Leclerc, 25, had 4.33 ERA, 100 K in 68 innings in 2019
@Ken_Rosenthal
was the first to mention that the Rangers and Mets had talked about a deal potentially including Dom Smith and Jed Lowrie.
So really they can't do any more deals unless it is something like Dan suggested above, with getting a cost controlled catcher like one of the guys from Toronto.
I think using a player like Dom to move a salary like Lowrie's is a bad move longterm. This is not a team guaranteed to make the playoffs. See how they start the season before you start giving away young talent to move short-term contracts.
Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
·
1m
Sources: Mets have talked to the Rangers about right-hander reliever Jose Leclerc.
Leclerc, 25, had 4.33 ERA, 100 K in 68 innings in 2019
@Ken_Rosenthal
was the first to mention that the Rangers and Mets had talked about a deal potentially including Dom Smith and Jed Lowrie.
Leclerc is good. Would be a nice add.
If we trade both Smith and Lowrie, we're left with, Mcneil, Rosario, Cano, Alonso, Davis in the IF. And, Conforto, Nimmo, the Astros guy we added, Cespedes and Davis in OF.
Our depth looks a lot thinner after a deal like that. Cano is likely to be on the DL at some point. Nimmo and Conforto havn't exactly been healthy all the time. Cespedes is obviously a question mark. McNeil seemed like he needed rest days last year at times.
Are we really sure we want to give up all of that depth just to add an RP? Why not keep the depth and just sign Betances without giving anything up?
I agree. Not another reliever with control problems. However, it might be too tempting for BVW to turn down since it would free up the extra cap space, while also adding another arm to the bullpen. Lowrie really has no place on this team
Quote:
scares me. 5.1 BB/9 in 2019, career 5.6. Not saying I'd hate Dom and Lowrie for him but I could also see it working out poorly for us and well for Texas.
I agree. Not another reliever with control problems. However, it might be too tempting for BVW to turn down since it would free up the extra cap space, while also adding another arm to the bullpen. Lowrie really has no place on this team
disagree, he's the Mets only real depth in the infield.
Link - ( New Window )
@Tucker_TnL
·
17h
UPDATE- In this decade alone, Scott Boras has negotiated
Holliday, 7y / 120M
Werth, 7y / 126M
Fielder, 9y / 214M
Andrus, 8y / 120M
Ellsbury, 7y / 153M
Choo, 7y / 130M
Scherzer, 7y / 210M
Harper, 13y / 330M
Strasburg, 7y / 245M
Cole, 9y / 324M
Rendon, 7y / 245M
2.2 BILLION+