(This was buried on another thread about the SI analytics article, but it's a different point, so I re-posted here)
I love DG's commitment to stopping the run, establishing the run and rushing the passer. Old school football and a time-tested and proven approach. Too many people believe "the game has changed" and pass-first offenses win championships. Not true. Defense wins championships. Ball control wins championships. Six decades of football proves it and the 2019 season is only the latest evidence:
THE ONE THING NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT
The formula for winning in 2019 has changed from what it was in ’18. The NFL’s top two running games were in Baltimore and San Francisco, which won the top seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively. The NFL’s top two defenses were in San Francisco and New England, and Baltimore finished fourth in that category. Meanwhile, the NFL’s top four pass offenses and seven of the top 10 in that category missed the playoffs. |
Love having a GM that believes this truism to his core. Proves it with words (hog mollies, baby!) and deeds (Dexter Lawrence, Will Hernandez, Saquon, Leonard Williams, etc.).
The future is bright, my friends!
SI Article on Analytics - (
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Words are great. But let's see some results.
Gettleman's hand picked OL has been awful. He's put a huge amount of resources toward improving it with little to show for it. I'm hoping against hope that this is primarily a coaching issue, because otherwise we're fucked.
I believe he knows this hire will essentially be one of, if not the most, important decision he makes as a member of the Giants.
Gettleman's hand picked OL has been awful. He's put a huge amount of resources toward improving it with little to show for it. I'm hoping against hope that this is primarily a coaching issue, because otherwise we're fucked.
Once again we are back to Gettleman as a failure in addressing OL, without context.
Here's your 2017 starters on the Giants OL: Flowers-Pugh-Richburg/Brett Jones-John Jerry-Bobby Hart, with Chad Wheeler as the swing.
Here's your 2020 starters on the Giants OL: Solder-Hernandez-Halapio-Zeitler-Remmers, with Nick Gates as the swing.
Center has been worse. Every other position he improved, and it's unlikely any of us could've realistically done better. VERY unlikley...because there wasn't much else he could've done. Omameh was a failure and he cut bait quickly. He should get equal credit for finding Gates. The Guard play is vastly improved over what he inherited.
We are a lot closer to having a very good OL than we were when Gettleman took over, that's just the truth. Also consider nearly every team in the NFL are having these problems and their fans these same discussions, most of them in worse shape on the OL than the Giants are at today. It's an epidemic around the NFL, bad OL play, or really, just the DL talent has far surpassed the OL talent.
Pat ran a lot in Minnesota and the QB was under center as well. That's what I thought we were getting and maybe the Giants also felt that.
I believe in the win now/rebuild theory. Pat had demonstrated success with QB's/offenses and would be a big help identifying the next QB.
Regardless he is gone. Let's hope for better results moving forward.
One year is a bit of a small sample, but I did something similar over a ten year period a couple of years back and the results were pretty similar.
Words are great. But let's see some results.
+1
NE KC LAR were all at the bottom at defending the run and gave up top 10 ypc
NE was top 3 in defending the pasS
The moral of the story is: get good. At something.
Jints need to break out of establish the run stop the run and rush the passer cliches.
They don't work anymore and have not worked for the Jints in years
Having a GM still rooted to the past almost guarantees that we will continue to repeat the near past.
We need new thinking and probably younger thinking
A fresh approach would at least give fans something to hope for
I truly believe this is the correct formula for winning, even in todays pass happy league, but which HC will agree ?
Jints need to break out of establish the run stop the run and rush the passer cliches.
They don't work anymore and have not worked for the Jints in years
Having a GM still rooted to the past almost guarantees that we will continue to repeat the near past.
We need new thinking and probably younger thinking
A fresh approach would at least give fans something to hope for
Bull shit ... football is football ... as long as you get 4 downs to go 10 yards you need to control the LOS and run when you need to,
And if you really think about it for a moment. There's two types of plays in the NFL. One will get you around 4-5 yards per try and get you a chunk play one out of every or so plays. The other will average you 7-8 yards per and get you a chunk play one in ten times. Why in god's name would you want balance between those two!!
Every good coach is going to identify the opponents weaknesses and try to exploit. I think the mantra helps to shape the overall direction of the franchise. If you do those things well you are dictating to the other team. Any given week one may be of more importance.
I was a QB so of course I like to air it out. If defenses know you can run they defend differently. I also think it has a huge psychological knowing your a team that can both run and stop a 3rd and 1 consistently.
At the end of the day (thanks Rolle) if the team is strong in the mantra if gives the best probability to win a championship this of course with a capable QB and very good HC imv.
Even looking at Baltimore with Jackson the mantra applies but they execute it differently. Jackson is always a threat and it will be difficult to emulate cause he is a very rare talent.
The NE Patriot secondary won that game and they are the main reason that NE has won the past several seasons.
It is a passing game now. Teams that can defend the pass are the teams that have the best shot at winning.
The game has evolved and our management needs to evolve with it
Jints need to break out of establish the run stop the run and rush the passer cliches.
They don't work anymore and have not worked for the Jints in years
Having a GM still rooted to the past almost guarantees that we will continue to repeat the near past.
We need new thinking and probably younger thinking
A fresh approach would at least give fans something to hope for
@ChicagoMarty: how do you justify this view? Six decades of football proves the pattern. People get enamored with "trends" that prove to be flashes-in-the-pan.
Words are great. But let's see some results.
This is a big reason I have interest in McDaniels as HC. The amount of targets in his system to the RB's. The play is almost always there, and with a dynamic back like Saquon I want to see him get touches, touches, touches.
Wr's can't be crunched now going over the middle without a personal foul being called.
Holding on the other hand is called more than ever before particularly on OL.
Athletes are quicker, faster and more athletic and better trained thatn ever before. Thtat includes DL.
Qbs are much more accurate than they were twenty years ago when rushing the ball ruled.
Now the percentages are higher for a five yard completion then a five yard rushing gain on any particular play.
Throwing the ball forty times or more is commonplace now when it was a rarity twenty years ago.
The rules changes were implemented to make the game more high scoring and therefore more entertaining - that means more passing
You don't have to accept it but the reality is that you have to effectively pass the ball and effectively defend the pass to stand a chance to win now.
That is completely different from the DG and old TC axiom of rushing the ball - stopping the run and forcing the opposing team to pass.
Teams don't have to be foreced to pass. They are passing the ball from the time they get off the bus.
The Jints need to get with the trend or be left behind forevermore
Only 1 of the top 10 teams in YPA against are in the playoffs.
Yes yes yes. Can anyone actually doubt this is a passing league now? If not why do the elite QB's win so many damn SuperBowls?
So we've got a GM who thinks 2 of the most 3 important things to a team involve running the ball when it's a passing league.
And it's a wonder we suck.
To win in the NFC East and win a Super Bowl you will have to apply some component of the mantra to get where we all want to go. You work to be strong in all three.
Philly won at the end with a sack. They led the league in rushing.
Patriots last year were very heavy run-oriented in playoffs and Super Bowl. All the pass happy teams who can't run and stop the run will be exposed along the way.
Think of all the protections to players that today would have made Ronnie Lott more notorious that Burfict.
All the QB protections,
the defensive holding penalties,
relaxation of what a catch is
relaxation of what is a fumble
allowing the passing game to have smaller, speedier guys
that would be in body bags in the 80s
running the ball has become the causal effect of having leads, no longer the single largest determinant of whether you win.
1. stop run
2. rush passer
3. cover
4. run
5. pass
So he selects 1 & 2 & 4 and people love him? i don't get it. he's just talking in cliches and some folks eat it up. like what, are covering and passing not important? interesting since gettlemen said he main focus for improving the giants was finding a quarterback and he drafted like 7 defensive backs in two years and the star piece of his trade for beckham was a safety.
you have to be good at all 5 of these things to win. it's a balancing act of these five pieces when you construct a team.
you can choose to focus on any three of these five and if you're successful with those and decent at the other two you'll win.
we had the fifth best run defense last year on a per attempt basis, how was our defense? why? couldn't cover shit.
To win in the NFC East and win a Super Bowl you will have to apply some component of the mantra to get where we all want to go. You work to be strong in all three.
Philly won at the end with a sack. They led the league in rushing.
Patriots last year were very heavy run-oriented in playoffs and Super Bowl. All the pass happy teams who can't run and stop the run will be exposed along the way.
A three game sample size doesn’t mean much. They Pats were 20th in YPA in the regular season that year. 10th in passing YPA.
They also averaged 7.6 YPA and completed 68% of their passes in the postseason. Their offense was just good.
20th in rushing defense
22nd in sacks
Color me unimpressed.
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comments should have precluded him from being awarded the GM job. If we had a competent and up-to-date analytics view of the league and the competition we would know that. The first part was for free as the NFL already provides it. Kind of tells you how much we go against the grain.
Yes yes yes. Can anyone actually doubt this is a passing league now? If not why do the elite QB's win so many damn SuperBowls?
So we've got a GM who thinks 2 of the most 3 important things to a team involve running the ball when it's a passing league.
And it's a wonder we suck.
there was an article published about 6-7 years ago that described this, in essence they were saying that run/pass mix heavily favors passing to win it all. defense is also important. Ever notice the Patriots have some guy back there nobody knows there name running the ball? Or they just find some guy that can give them a "metric". I think thee ration was 70/30 or 60/40 and dependent on game conditions. One thing is true though, if you can't throw the ball down the field you are fucked. TC and Gilbride used to talk about this all the time.
Think of all the protections to players that today would have made Ronnie Lott more notorious that Burfict.
All the QB protections,
the defensive holding penalties,
relaxation of what a catch is
relaxation of what is a fumble
allowing the passing game to have smaller, speedier guys
that would be in body bags in the 80s
running the ball has become the causal effect of having leads, no longer the single largest determinant of whether you win.
Thank you. Great post.
The NE Patriot secondary won that game and they are the main reason that NE has won the past several seasons.
It is a passing game now. Teams that can defend the pass are the teams that have the best shot at winning.
The game has evolved and our management needs to evolve with it
yup.
And Greg Roman.
3 of the Top 10 Passing Teams made the Playoffs
Words are great. But let's see some results.
Exactly. I also find it interesting that Shula has been the OC for arguably the leagues top two backs in McCaffrey and Barkley and seemed to have issues figuring out how to get the right amount of touches for either player. I get McCaffrey was a rookie when he played under Shula but he has looked like an absolute force since Shula left the Panthers.
3 of the Top 10 Passing Teams made the Playoffs
I assume this is by rushing yards and passing yards? If so, this is just saying teams that are up in the 4th quarter run more and teams that are playing from behind pass more.
By Offensive DVOA, 7 of 10 top passing teams made the playoffs. 5 of the top 10 rushing teams made the playoffs.
3 of the Top 10 Passing Teams made the Playoffs
So they ran more because they were winning. Terrific point. Meanwhile Tampa didn’t make the playoffs because Winston threw 30 picks and put them in huge holes weekly.
Oh and to the OP talking about the ravens rushing attack - their quarterback accounted for Half of that total with lots of those ‘carries’ out of passing plays.
Completely misses the mark. Rules have changed benefiting passing and holding gets called - even marginal holds- pretty often on runs which sets offenses back
John Madden (I know another Old fart) always said you need to have three things to have success in the playoffs:
Sound Quarterback Play -Making key throws and No turnovers
Defense - stop the run and minimize Big plays
Ability to Run the Ball
Some of you have been traumatized by Fantasy Football you have lost all sense of reality.
Quote:
is important. What's harder is actually putting a good one together.
Gettleman's hand picked OL has been awful. He's put a huge amount of resources toward improving it with little to show for it. I'm hoping against hope that this is primarily a coaching issue, because otherwise we're fucked.
Once again we are back to Gettleman as a failure in addressing OL, without context.
Here's your 2017 starters on the Giants OL: Flowers-Pugh-Richburg/Brett Jones-John Jerry-Bobby Hart, with Chad Wheeler as the swing.
Here's your 2020 starters on the Giants OL: Solder-Hernandez-Halapio-Zeitler-Remmers, with Nick Gates as the swing.
Center has been worse. Every other position he improved, and it's unlikely any of us could've realistically done better. VERY unlikley...because there wasn't much else he could've done. Omameh was a failure and he cut bait quickly. He should get equal credit for finding Gates. The Guard play is vastly improved over what he inherited.
We are a lot closer to having a very good OL than we were when Gettleman took over, that's just the truth. Also consider nearly every team in the NFL are having these problems and their fans these same discussions, most of them in worse shape on the OL than the Giants are at today. It's an epidemic around the NFL, bad OL play, or really, just the DL talent has far surpassed the OL talent.
Excuses, excuses, improving the 2017 OL was a given as you couldn't get much worse. Hernandez is NOT better than Pugh, Solder play is not much better than Flowers, Zeitler's excuse is he was hurt and Remmers has been bad. If you are happy with THAT kind of improvement than DG is your guy. For me if that is the starting OL in 2020 be prepared for another 4-12 shitshow or worse!!!
Quote:
In comment 14752966 Metnut said:
Quote:
is important. What's harder is actually putting a good one together.
Gettleman's hand picked OL has been awful. He's put a huge amount of resources toward improving it with little to show for it. I'm hoping against hope that this is primarily a coaching issue, because otherwise we're fucked.
Once again we are back to Gettleman as a failure in addressing OL, without context.
Here's your 2017 starters on the Giants OL: Flowers-Pugh-Richburg/Brett Jones-John Jerry-Bobby Hart, with Chad Wheeler as the swing.
Here's your 2020 starters on the Giants OL: Solder-Hernandez-Halapio-Zeitler-Remmers, with Nick Gates as the swing.
Center has been worse. Every other position he improved, and it's unlikely any of us could've realistically done better. VERY unlikley...because there wasn't much else he could've done. Omameh was a failure and he cut bait quickly. He should get equal credit for finding Gates. The Guard play is vastly improved over what he inherited.
We are a lot closer to having a very good OL than we were when Gettleman took over, that's just the truth. Also consider nearly every team in the NFL are having these problems and their fans these same discussions, most of them in worse shape on the OL than the Giants are at today. It's an epidemic around the NFL, bad OL play, or really, just the DL talent has far surpassed the OL talent.
Excuses, excuses, improving the 2017 OL was a given as you couldn't get much worse. Hernandez is NOT better than Pugh, Solder play is not much better than Flowers, Zeitler's excuse is he was hurt and Remmers has been bad. If you are happy with THAT kind of improvement than DG is your guy. For me if that is the starting OL in 2020 be prepared for another 4-12 shitshow or worse!!!
Give me a break. Solder, while imperfect and had bad games this year, also had good games. And yes, he not only was better than Flowers, he's been orders of magnitude better.
Ditto with Hernandez over Pugh, who was not good at OG and oft-injured. I can show you tape of Hernandez dominating his man in ways Pugh NEVER did.
And Bobby Hart isn't better than Remmers. Look, Remmers wasn't Kareem McKenzie and didn't earn a second contract, but Bobby Hart was very likely the worst RT in the NFL. Sorry, you're wrong. This OL was way better than 2017 and all the metrics will say that. There was actually a real pocket a good amount of the time, and many of the sacks Jones took was due to holding on to the ball too long, not on the OL.
John Madden (I know another Old fart) always said you need to have three things to have success in the playoffs:
Sound Quarterback Play -Making key throws and No turnovers
Defense - stop the run and minimize Big plays
Ability to Run the Ball
Some of you have been traumatized by Fantasy Football you have lost all sense of reality.
Total yards doesn't prove you did something effectively