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Colin updates his mock

stoneman : 1/9/2020 8:09 am
cluster drafts LBs - I like it :)
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RE: Sure a trade down would be perfect, but they are much easier done on  
Eman11 : 1/9/2020 9:09 am : link
In comment 14768876 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
paper. Teams don't like giving up picks.If we can't trade down, and we do really like one of the OT's, I say take him at #4. I don't care if he is projected to go at #10 or #11, he's not going to be there again for us. If we love him then make him ours 6 slots earlier than "concensus", so what.


Agreed about trades being easier said than done but if Tua and Herbert are there when we pick at 4 knowing Miami, SD and Carolina are in the market, that's about as ideal a scenario for a trade back as could be IMO.
There's more to it  
JonC : 1/9/2020 9:09 am : link
there's positional value relative to scheme, there's needs and their respective urgency, there's a long list of variables in addition to Simmons not being (in my eyes) the swiss army knife many here believe he'll be. I'd even reach for an OT or trade it before considering him. The #4 overall pick needs to be maximized, he's a gamble.
If the Lions stand pat  
JonC : 1/9/2020 9:10 am : link
the Giants will be in position to trade down, a team will want to move up for Tua. Don't get too stuck in semantics in this situation.
RE: If the Lions stand pat  
ryanmkeane : 1/9/2020 9:12 am : link
In comment 14768909 JonC said:
Quote:
the Giants will be in position to trade down, a team will want to move up for Tua. Don't get too stuck in semantics in this situation.

That'd be the most ideal situation. Lions take a player at 3...we trade back a few spots and pick up an extra 2nd and perhaps, just maybe a 2021 1st.
Defense  
Archer : 1/9/2020 9:13 am : link
I love the thought of going defense-defense.
The Giants cannot win without adding premium players to the defense.

Is there one player on the defense that you can call a star? There are some young players that are improving and may become very good. With the fourth pick or a trade down I hope that the Giants can come away with an impact defensive player. Young is not realistic, but Okudah, Simmons, Epenesa, Brown, .....

While an OT is also needed, I believe that the Giants can acquire an OL via free agency.
I also think that a new offensive coordinator and OL coach will improve the players that we have.

When the Giants have won it is because they have an outstanding defense. I think that it is time to focus on defense and get back to Giants football.



No offensive lineman in first two rounds...  
M.S. : 1/9/2020 9:15 am : link

...when we have a desperate need for Left Tackle and Center?

Trade #4 to Jacksonville  
90.Cal : 1/9/2020 9:16 am : link
For #9 + #20

Grab OT Thomas (or OT Wirfs) & OC Biadasz. OL fixed. Solder Hernandez Biadasz Zeitler Thomas.
I seen GBN has Creed Humphrey as the first Center...  
M.S. : 1/9/2020 9:18 am : link

...coming off the Board at #18.

I said it before, I'll say it again:

I have no problem taking this guy at #4.
Looking at this  
Reale01 : 1/9/2020 9:22 am : link
Trade down with Las Vegas for 12, 18, #3 pick.

Take

Wirfs, Epenesa, or Wills at #12
Humphrey, Murray, Delpit at #18
Becton or best in round 2

Best outcome IMO Epenesa, Humphrey, Becton

RE: Can't pass up a stud OT  
Gatorade Dunk : 1/9/2020 9:29 am : link
In comment 14768777 MBavaro said:
Quote:
for Simmons. I know he's a freak athlete. Still looks to me like a Jack of all trades, master of none. You can't take a flyer on that with the 4th pick.

Would you take Troy Polumalu with the 4th pick?
RE: RE: If the Lions stand pat  
stoneman : 1/9/2020 9:30 am : link
In comment 14768916 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
In comment 14768909 JonC said:


Quote:


the Giants will be in position to trade down, a team will want to move up for Tua. Don't get too stuck in semantics in this situation.


That'd be the most ideal situation. Lions take a player at 3...we trade back a few spots and pick up an extra 2nd and perhaps, just maybe a 2021 1st.


This would mean the Det would value Okudah more than multiple firsts (the minimum to move into this QB slot). I doubt any team values anybody (other than QB or Chase) that high. IMO Det will move out of this slot, much like we would want to do if we were sitting at #3.
the thing about Simmons  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 1/9/2020 9:33 am : link
if you can't figure out how to have him impact the game, then you shouldn't be a Defensive Coordinator. The guy is a swiss army knife that creates unpredictability and big plays. He is a matchup nightmare.

Not saying we should not trade down, but I would want trade down and also get him. We need an impact player on the defensive side of the ball.
RE: No offensive lineman in first two rounds...  
JonC : 1/9/2020 9:35 am : link
In comment 14768927 M.S. said:
Quote:

...when we have a desperate need for Left Tackle and Center?


The draft isn't about desperate need, that's UFA.
RE: If the Lions stand pat  
barens : 1/9/2020 9:37 am : link
In comment 14768909 JonC said:
Quote:
the Giants will be in position to trade down, a team will want to move up for Tua. Don't get too stuck in semantics in this situation.


What’s cool is Justin Herbert is playing in the Senior Bowl, and you just know some team is going to fall in love with him. I think there’s a good chance he ends up going before Tua.
With three QB-needy teams drafting right after the Giants  
lawguy9801 : 1/9/2020 9:40 am : link
it would be lunacy not to trade with one of them and obtain extra picks.
RE: RE: If the Lions stand pat  
JonC : 1/9/2020 9:40 am : link
In comment 14768983 barens said:
Quote:
In comment 14768909 JonC said:


Quote:


the Giants will be in position to trade down, a team will want to move up for Tua. Don't get too stuck in semantics in this situation.



What’s cool is Justin Herbert is playing in the Senior Bowl, and you just know some team is going to fall in love with him. I think there’s a good chance he ends up going before Tua.


I think there's a shot. He's got the mobility, physical, accuracy, and arm talent that are hard to find. Eason does as well, but he's a bit greener with the accuracy and decision making. Like both QBs a lot, would be looking at both if we didn't pick Jones.
I mean, seriously  
lawguy9801 : 1/9/2020 9:43 am : link
if the Giants had their heart set on Simmons or someone else at 4, and the Chargers wanted to move up from 6 for a QB, then if you believe this draft board, Herbert and Tua will go 4/5 and then they're still guaranteed the guy they want plus an extra pick or picks in their pocket.

Who knows if Gettleman and Abrams will process all of that, though - because after all, it isn't the "Giants Way" or something.
RE: I mean, seriously  
The_Boss : 1/9/2020 9:49 am : link
In comment 14768996 lawguy9801 said:
Quote:
if the Giants had their heart set on Simmons or someone else at 4, and the Chargers wanted to move up from 6 for a QB, then if you believe this draft board, Herbert and Tua will go 4/5 and then they're still guaranteed the guy they want plus an extra pick or picks in their pocket.

Who knows if Gettleman and Abrams will process all of that, though - because after all, it isn't the "Giants Way" or something.


Maybe the 4 computer guys can persuade them?
Another scenario to ponder  
stoneman : 1/9/2020 9:51 am : link
Would you take Mia's 5/18/27 for the 2 slot (Mia would really have to want a certain QB). That's alot of firsts to pass on.
Another thing I wonder, is whether the Redskins  
barens : 1/9/2020 10:00 am : link
draft Okudah instead of Young. Washington's defensive line is their strength, and their back end needs a lot of help. Unless Young is just clearly the better prospect, I don't think that's out of the realm either.
Mocking mock drafts  
Colin@gbn : 1/9/2020 10:09 am : link
Morning guys: Thanks Stoneman for the plug. And interesting comments.

A couple of things. We don't like to do trades in our mocks unless there is some real smoke out there that something is up and its way to early for that right now. What we do expect is that if Tua is healthy somebody is going to move up to 2 or 3 to take him and we just dont see any other player out there who teams are going to want to tarde up to #4 to get so while one never likes to say never it's hard to see where the Giants are going to be able to get in on any realistic trade down scenario.

That said, the good news is that there are going to be some really interesting options at #4 depending on what they want to do. Indeed, one could make a very good case that they take a) Okudah (if a Tua trade takes place), b) Simmons, c) one of the WRs Lamb or Jeudy, or d) one of the OTs. The reason we like Simmons is that of all the options that are going to be out there he is the most 'transformative" and by that we mean will the player -if he plays to his physical potential and that's always the big IF - not just fill a spot in the starting 22 but does he change the way your team can play and force opponents to change their approach. In Simmons' case, the Giants D has been very limited the past few years because they had very little speed, range or athleticism down the middle at LB and safety. That meant it was very hard to go to real tight press coverage because guys like Ogletree and Bethea just couldn't cover anyone. As a result the Giants ended up having to play a ton of very soft zones to protect those guys and as a result we saw of ton of pitch-and-catch by opposing TEs and RBs over the middle. However, add a guy like Simmons and you go from having one of the slowest LB-FS tandems in the league to one of the fastest and should allow you to play a much greater variety of tighter defenses. The other thing one has to consider at LB is that mopst teams now play a 3-wr set as their base offense which kind of makes the old 4-3 versus 3-4 choice an anachronism. Last year the Giants ended up in a 4-2 scheme something like 60-70% of their even non-passing downs and if you are going to play a 4-2 you really need the "2" to have some speed, range and coverage ability.

Again I wouldn't totally rule out the Giants taking an OT at #4 (and even one of the Cs in the second) but my suspicion is that if they go offense it will be at WR. One of the biggest issues the Giants had on offense this year was that they just didn't have a downfield threat and teams were able to bring literally 10-11 guys up to the LOS to stop #26. Get a legit downfield threat like Lamb or Jeudy though and you are really going to make it hard on opposing defenses to decide what they are going to try and take away.

And I know people aren't going to want to hear but I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants end up having to live pretty much with what they have on the OL for another year. You just can't fix everything in one year. Certainly one would think they would try and add a competent C in FA and maybe add another veteran swing G/T for depth, but as scary as it sounds the best option along the OL just may be to hope that Solder, Remmers and Zeitler have a healthy off-season (unlike last year) and that they simply play better next year and then make the OL the off-season target in 2021. time will tell.
I hope we didn't go through last year  
ghost718 : 1/9/2020 10:19 am : link
to end up with a coverage linebacker at 4
Thanks Colin.  
barens : 1/9/2020 10:24 am : link
The only thing I worry about, and as nice as it sounds to take one of those WR's, is I don't want this team to turn into Atlanta, who has a bunch of skill players, but not much doing in the trenches.

I think it will be very interesting to see what the new regime thinks of Nate Solder, whether they think it was an off year, or go in another direction.
RE: I hope we didn't go through last year  
JonC : 1/9/2020 10:30 am : link
In comment 14769103 ghost718 said:
Quote:
to end up with a coverage linebacker at 4


Exactly.
Trade down  
WillVAB : 1/9/2020 10:53 am : link
Or “reach” for a quality player in the trenches. The players in the range right now at 4 for the Giants simply don’t align with what the Giants are trying to do philosophically.

The Giants need to trade down and pick up an extra 1st or 2nd. Pick an ER in the first and hammer OL with the extra pick and 2nd rounder where the value is.

Not sure about Colin's analysis  
Bob in Newburgh : 1/9/2020 10:59 am : link
One thing has not changed. This will be a Gettleman draft, not a Judge draft. It is one thing for Judge to make the huge jump to HC. It is quite another to become HC with substantial personnel acquisition control. As fans, our hope is that they are, at least, on the same page and can work in concert.

What Colin's draft does not do is add any value to the prior SB and JD picks. Both are athletically capable of helping themselves, but neither is Superman who can do it all.
Awful  
Philu916 : 1/9/2020 11:00 am : link
Worst possible outcome. Simmons at 4, and passing up an OL round 2? Simmons potentially can fall to 6-9 range and can gain an extra 2nd round pick.
Swap Weaver with Mekhi Becton  
Saquads Barkley : 1/9/2020 11:04 am : link
I would sign up for Simmons and Becton right now.
RE: Not sure about Colin's analysis  
barens : 1/9/2020 11:10 am : link
In comment 14769193 Bob in Newburgh said:
Quote:
One thing has not changed. This will be a Gettleman draft, not a Judge draft. It is one thing for Judge to make the huge jump to HC. It is quite another to become HC with substantial personnel acquisition control. As fans, our hope is that they are, at least, on the same page and can work in concert.

What Colin's draft does not do is add any value to the prior SB and JD picks. Both are athletically capable of helping themselves, but neither is Superman who can do it all.


Bob, that is just not the case. I know sometimes we come to some of the worst conclusions here, but I can't see hiring a new coach, and the GM just drafts who he deems fit regardless of the system the coach wants to run or any input. Doesn't seem realistic.

I guess my point is, I don't see many huge disagreements that Gettleman will just overrule and go with his guy.
depending on DG free agency picks  
mdc1 : 1/9/2020 11:10 am : link
which I assume are core needs, we need to go for offensive weapons. We do not score enough points, nor do we score often enough. DG will probably try to buy the defense again.
Take the Best Offensive Tackle  
Manning10 : 1/9/2020 11:11 am : link
Its not the sexy pick but Damnit Two of your Best assets are at QB and RB , its a No brainer.
RE: Take the Best Offensive Tackle  
mdc1 : 1/9/2020 11:12 am : link
In comment 14769220 Manning10 said:
Quote:
Its not the sexy pick but Damnit Two of your Best assets are at QB and RB , its a No brainer.


we are compromised at scouting and development of a pick like that. You realize that? Been done and tried before.
Unless you believe DG is senile, demented - whatever  
Bob in Newburgh : 1/9/2020 11:31 am : link
He will be going into this draft with a far better knowledge of the fundamental weaknesses of our roster, and the fundamental strengths of the key players in this draft than Judge.

To believe otherwise is to believe that one, or both, were not competently fulfilling the requirements of his 2019 primary job.

I believe DG would defer to Judge if Judge said something like "I would never use that type, or can't see how he fits in," but otherwise, I believe this will be a DG draft.
I  
AcidTest : 1/9/2020 11:37 am : link
don't see this happening:

Quote:
And I know people aren't going to want to hear but I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants end up having to live pretty much with what they have on the OL for another year. You just can't fix everything in one year. Certainly one would think they would try and add a competent C in FA and maybe add another veteran swing G/T for depth, but as scary as it sounds the best option along the OL just may be to hope that Solder, Remmers and Zeitler have a healthy off-season (unlike last year) and that they simply play better next year and then make the OL the off-season target in 2021. time will tell.


Remmers is a FA, and likely won't be resigned. I'd cut Solder, but agree that almost certainly won't happen because of the $13M cap hit for doing so. Halapio has a torn achilles.

They also spent the #6 pick on Jones who took a pounding because the OL couldn't block. Barkley was the #2, and he couldn't go anywhere for the same reason. How many times was he immediately hit in the backfield by two or three defenders? If the Giants stay at #4, I'd predict Thomas or Wirfs at this point. Fixing the OL is the highest priority.

I also think you're being too pessimistic about a possible trade down. QBs get overvalued and overdrafted every year. Look what the Bears gave up to move up one spot for Trubisky. Christian Ponder and E.J. Manuel were also grossly overdrafted. The same could easily happen with Herbert for example.
RE: Trade #4 to Jacksonville  
Scyber : 1/9/2020 11:42 am : link
In comment 14768933 90.Cal said:
Quote:
For #9 + #20

Grab OT Thomas (or OT Wirfs) & OC Biadasz. OL fixed. Solder Hernandez Biadasz Zeitler Thomas.


If Jacksonville offers 2 1st round picks for #4, the next thing they should do is call Miami to see if they can beat it. Because Miami has the most trade capital in this draft (3 first rounders).
No OL in the first 2 rounds?  
arniefez : 1/9/2020 11:44 am : link
Let's hope that's wrong.
RE: RE: Can't pass up a stud OT  
Klaatu : 1/9/2020 11:52 am : link
In comment 14768965 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14768777 MBavaro said:


Quote:


for Simmons. I know he's a freak athlete. Still looks to me like a Jack of all trades, master of none. You can't take a flyer on that with the 4th pick.


Would you take Troy Polumalu with the 4th pick?


Yup. I wanted the Giants to draft Sean Taylor with the 4th pick, too.
People Here Understand that Gettleman Has Never Traded Down  
Giants38 : 1/9/2020 11:56 am : link
Right? And our GM before that never traded down, either? So while I am firmly on the trade down train, we have GMs that have not traded down in what, 14 or 15 years? We'll just get some nonsense after the 1st about how the value for a trade down wasn't there, except our GM will say that a team offered hot coffee and donuts to express that.

In any event, it is hard to see Washington trading out of #2, because they then pass up a chance to get Chase Young. Unless something happens to Young or he struggles at the combine, it is hard to see Snyder passing up a guy who is widely viewed as a transformative prospect.

That, of course, leaves the Lions at 3 as a trade down partner for the QB needy teams at 4-5-6. But if Herbert has a strong showing at the Senior Bowl and Combine, someone will possibly want to trade up for him, too. I have little doubt Herbert is going in the top 10, and quite possibly the top 5.

To me, the Giants can easily find trade partner to move down - and likely only a couple of spots - and accrue some extra picks. I disagree with Colin's point of view - with all due respect to him - that the Giants will find it hard to find a trade partner.
I just spent the last 5 minutes  
Dnew15 : 1/9/2020 11:56 am : link
googling 2019 January NFL mock drafts.

It's crazy how badly they all missed.
RE: Mocking mock drafts  
Thegratefulhead : 1/9/2020 12:37 pm : link
In comment 14769074 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:

And I know people aren't going to want to hear but I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants end up having to live pretty much with what they have on the OL for another year. You just can't fix everything in one year. Certainly one would think they would try and add a competent C in FA and maybe add another veteran swing G/T for depth, but as scary as it sounds the best option along the OL just may be to hope that Solder, Remmers and Zeitler have a healthy off-season (unlike last year) and that they simply play better next year and then make the OL the off-season target in 2021. time will tell.
Colin, How would our current OL do if we changed to a power running team? I have felt that we were not using them correctly. If we let these guys fire off the ball about 55% percent of the time? I would like them used more like the Titans use their OL.
RE: If the Lions stand pat  
Saquads26 : 1/9/2020 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14768909 JonC said:
Quote:
the Giants will be in position to trade down, a team will want to move up for Tua. Don't get too stuck in semantics in this situation.


Exactly it’s pretty straightforward.
Devo Smith...  
bw in dc : 1/9/2020 1:10 pm : link
for Alabama is staying in school - FYI.
Besides the QBs  
TMS : 1/9/2020 1:10 pm : link
think Simmons is the potential game changer for our draft. If he bulks up without losing his other skills. Think Judge will know how to use him. The 10 year LB who is all over the field that we have not had since LT. Do not get many chances at them
RE: Trade #4 to Jacksonville  
Earl the goat : 1/9/2020 1:11 pm : link
In comment 14768933 90.Cal said:
Quote:
For #9 + #20

Grab OT Thomas (or OT Wirfs) & OC Biadasz. OL fixed. Solder Hernandez Biadasz Zeitler Thomas.



Couldn’t agree more

Too much youth on our defense akready. Need FA vets on defense to go with our youth
Funny...  
bw in dc : 1/9/2020 1:17 pm : link
I didn't like Simmons last year but really liked his growth this year. Guy is a real swiss army knife who will be highly productive if used correctly. I could see Tomlin or Carroll absolutely, for example, making him a star...

Using the players Colin has in this pool of players, I would get aggressive and go with Gross-Matos at pick #4 and go with the human eclipse in round two, Becton.
Love the trade down scenario with Jacksonville  
Earl the goat : 1/9/2020 1:18 pm : link
First round 9 and 20
Trade down again with one of those picks to maybe get an additional second

First round

Creed Humphreys
Kvian Chassion

Second Round
Mekhi Becton
Tee Huggins or Justin Jefferson

Third round
JR Reid

Free Agency
Jack Conklin. And now the OLine is set

Blake Martinez and Joe Schobert. Linebackers are set

Chris Jones. DLine is set
OL Fixed - ? Let's be realistic  
Bob in Newburgh : 1/9/2020 1:24 pm : link
Foundation in place. But the o-line will probably be a problem for all of 2020. Rookie o-line, even those who go on to solid careers as starters, normally have all kinds of problems.

However, I believe you have to do it.
"You just can't fix everything in one year. "  
ColHowPepper : 1/9/2020 1:44 pm : link
That was Colin in reference to the OL. I love what Colin does here, but I agree that team cannot move forward leaving the OL in static mode (3 positions in need of serious upgrade, LT, C, RT) when the franchise opted for RB and QB as their now highest value assets. The OL has held them back.

It IS time to fix this.

As for no WR to stretch the opposing D, for God's sake, if he still on the team, place EE as a WR; he is NOT a TE. So many teams have found crazy good value at TE in Rounds 4, 5, or 6.

And the d, address it in FA or Round 2.
I trade down a spot or two to a team wanting a QB  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 1/9/2020 2:02 pm : link
to try an recoup something in the vicinity of the 3rd round pick we gave up (or better).

Then I draft Tristan Wirfs.

I've seen more people coming around to the idea that he's the best of the tackles. CBSsports most recent mock had him going 4th to the Giants. Boylhart had him listed 4th among the tackles, but with the realization that he could easily end up the best of the group.
RE:  
barens : 1/10/2020 9:30 am : link
In comment 14769676 ColHowPepper said:
Quote:
That was Colin in reference to the OL. I love what Colin does here, but I agree that team cannot move forward leaving the OL in static mode (3 positions in need of serious upgrade, LT, C, RT) when the franchise opted for RB and QB as their now highest value assets. The OL has held them back.

It IS time to fix this.

As for no WR to stretch the opposing D, for God's sake, if he still on the team, place EE as a WR; he is NOT a TE. So many teams have found crazy good value at TE in Rounds 4, 5, or 6.

And the d, address it in FA or Round 2.


I do love the idea of having both EE and Kaden Smith on the field at the same time.
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