My friend and I were talking about strategies for the draft and free agency (generally and Giants-based), and we spoke about whether it's best to go big or go home on a few blue-chip players or try to fill out the roster with guys a tier below or a few tiers below.
Wondering what your takes are as it pertains to the Giants. I'll look at this through the team's lens.
(Writer's note: This got long. Skip to the end if you want my summary.)
I'm going into this thinking the Giants' 5 biggest positions of need are, in no particular order: OT, ILB, OLB/EDGE, CB, C.
From a FA perspective, you have a few players out there that should command $20 million-plus (Clowney, Ngakoue, etc.) and others who should safely find themselves in the $15 million range plus (Conklin, Littleton, etc.).
NYG has $61 million or so in cap space (source: Over the Cap) and potentially another $20 million or so by cutting some players like Ogletree or Bethea (source: Giant Insider Newspaper).
That should give the team more than enough money to sign a couple blue-chip players.
They can sign Ngakoue and Conklin, for example, and have money left over to sign or re-sign others (like Williams, who I'm guessing won't break the bank like the guys I mentioned above but will still have something in the $10-14 million range). Maybe I am off-base, let me know.
But here's my take: I'd rather do more with less, if you will, and fill out the roster with mid-tier guys. There are simply too many gaps on the 53-man roster.
You're not going to be lucky like Tampa and sign a Shaq Barrett to a one-year deal and get 19 sacks out of it, but this team is so short on depth that I think a top-heavy approach would be off-base.
In that respect, I'd look toward more affordable players, such as:
Panthers CB James Bradberry: Solid CB, gets the job done. Not a shutdown guy, but he holds down the fort and has a track record of success against the NFC South's best WR.
Patriots LB Kyle Van Noy: Was excellent with Pats last year. My guess is he may not break the bank a la Littleton because he's pushing 30.
Broncos C Connor McGovern: Will cost $10-12 million, I bet, but if you want to shore up C, there isn't a better option out there.
Other guys I like: Packers OT Bryan Bulaga, Patriots C Ted Karras, Giants' own Leonard Williams. Golden I think will be paid in the $15 million or more range, but maybe I'm off-base again.
As Michael Scott once said, you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take, so I like taking as many shots as possible, especially given this team's state.
So then I marry that philosophy with the draft: the more shots you have, the better, which is why I like the idea of trading down.
Maybe it's to the Raiders for 12, 19 and a third or fourth, or maybe it's just acquiring a day 2 pick by moving down a spot or 2. Doesn't matter, the more picks, the better IMHO.
With that, you can try to hit on those positions of need and flesh out the rest of your roster.
In my scenario, the Giants get two OL in FA, a CB, a DL and a LB. In that case, it's time to go all out on EDGE/defensive impact players in the draft. Trust me, there are plenty. Every top 100 list I see has somewhere between 12-15.
And then go OT again and other needs as warranted.
Summary: I'd like to see the Giants get a couple OL in FA, a CB, a LB and a DL as opposed to going all-out for an EDGE, simply because I don't think this team can afford to put a lot of its chips in one basket. I wouldn't be burning my jersey if Ngakoue became a Giant, of course (I like the player), but I think another approach is better.
I'd then load up on EDGE, OT and LB (and maybe CB too, I'm torn) in the draft with as many picks as possible. Yes, some of the front-line defensive talent is tempting, but a well-rounded roster rather than one front-loaded with stars is far better, IMHO.
So pull up your pants high Gettleman-style and put on the GM's hat: How would you approach the offseason from a macro perspective?
id be fine with signing
littleton
judon
resign williams
then head to the draft.
i also like the idea of
judon
conklin
williams
golden
and go to the draft needing an ILB and a C. the draft has several at both positions.
Clowney 5/100 and
Williams 4/45 (otherwise franchise)
Conklin would be nice but I think you look at draft depth and rather address OT, C, MLB, CB in that priority during the draft
Then post draft fill in the remaining needs whether it be MLB or CB. Hopefully a guy like Martinez is still there.
Unfortunately, this organization has no clue how to spell "long-term plan."
Free agency I'd like to get a pass rusher, preferably Ngakoue (sp?) or Shaq Barrett, and then also an OT (Conklin I suppose if he's available).
Pass rushers and OL I think should be the focus of this off-season in general, aside from getting Okudah if he's there simply because I think he's one of the few sure-fire superstars in this draft.
One incumbent starter, Baker, who has mental flaws and may not mesh with Judges approach
Two young draftees (Beal, Ballantine) who may or may not be starting quality players
A 4th round pick, a lot left to be determined, but right now I view OSU’s Okudah as the leading prospect. Automatic starter if he is picked.
How do you play this position? Is it a free agent target position?
You can end anywhere from having no solid players to having a good player on the bench while bad players start at other positions.
I think I’d wait out the pre draft FA market and if need be make a cheaper older vet signing in May or June.
Given this situation, I want the Giants to swing a relatively cheap trade for the Jags starting C Brandon Linder, who can be traded without a dead cap hit due to the way his contract is structured. Linder is probably the Jags’ best OL but does have injury concerns. Unless Linder has some really serious health issues, to me that is the sort of deal DG should be pursuing to selectively shore up the team’s talent base.
One incumbent starter, Baker, who has mental flaws and may not mesh with Judges approach
Two young draftees (Beal, Ballantine) who may or may not be starting quality players
A 4th round pick, a lot left to be determined, but right now I view OSU’s Okudah as the leading prospect. Automatic starter if he is picked.
How do you play this position? Is it a free agent target position?
You can end anywhere from having no solid players to having a good player on the bench while bad players start at other positions.
I think I’d wait out the pre draft FA market and if need be make a cheaper older vet signing in May or June.
I honestly wouldn't have any problem with having "too many" good corners. This team's pass defense was AWFUL last year, and has been awful for a long time (aside from 2016). In fact it's been so bad that I would simply have no problem with getting a starting CB in FA AND then taking Okudah if he happens to fall to us. I mean what's the worst that can happen? We have too many guys on the team who can cover well? In a pass-first league? To me that's one of them good problems.
Nothing is guaranteed in FA. Offering the best deal doesn’t automatically lock in whomever you want. FAs also want to go to a proven winner. Staying close to home is a factor as well.
The Giants should make a list and try to get as many players off the list as possible. Maybe the list is 2 players, maybe it’s 10 players. Don’t spend just because the money is there and the team has holes — go after players who will be quality investments.
Enough of building depth with free agency, that's how we got screwed with stupid contracts like Kareem Martin, Stewart, Rhett Ellison, Bethea and Omameh's. Build depth through the draft and hopefully you hit on a few home runs. If you are going to spend money on free agency, get me players that will be impact players such as Conklin and Yannick.
Offense tackle
Resign Williams DT
Resign Golden if possible
Resign Latimer and the wrs, if affordable and on short contracts for now
Draft Priorities in order
Free Safeties / zone DB (x2)
Inside LB (x2 two different types)
Olb / Edge (1)
Kicker
Classic fat nose tackle DT
One incumbent starter, Baker, who has mental flaws and may not mesh with Judges approach
Two young draftees (Beal, Ballantine) who may or may not be starting quality players
A 4th round pick, a lot left to be determined, but right now I view OSU’s Okudah as the leading prospect. Automatic starter if he is picked.
How do you play this position? Is it a free agent target position?
You can end anywhere from having no solid players to having a good player on the bench while bad players start at other positions.
I think I’d wait out the pre draft FA market and if need be make a cheaper older vet signing in May or June.
I would not be opposed tho Okudah at 4. There is a very real chance he is the clear BPA at that spot.
I wouldn't want or expect a big FA at CB, but adding more cost controlled talent in the secondary isn't a bad plan in today's nfl.
This would also mesh with DGs mo.
It's a win win for the Giants. If the Lions take Okudah than the Giants suddenly have a very valuable pick if only one QB is off the board.
Front load the current wrs on short , affordable , two year deals to give flexibility year #2. Given they kept Tolbert
- Stay away from highest priced figures at their positions on Day 1 of Free Agency
- Get feeling of several trade down offers in Draft in case want to pass on a blue-chipper at #4 and go grab several red-chippers later in Rd 1 and 2
- Stay away from taking 2021 picks if possible in trade down as Saquon and DJ aren't getting any younger.
- Key positions to upgrade are OT, C, TE, Edge, ILB, slot CB, and FS
- Not going to cover all in free agency or draft unless get a very good haul for trading down (but I don't have faith in DG to be able to get this done)
- Lastly, pray that the black cloud that has been on this franchise for the past decade is removed...
And these are all high quality players I presume? Are you getting some other team to give you all their draft choices and all their FA as well. The idea that you can get this many quality players in one offseason is just not realistic. In one offseason you will be fortunate to fix one unit and maybe help out another. More than that is a daydream. If you don't prioritize one unit to upgrade, you won't fix anything.
Cut Ogletree, Bethea, Remmers
FA:
Re-sign Williams
Re-sign Golden
Re-sign Mayo
Add Conklin (RT)
Add Ngakoue (ER)
Add Logan Ryan (CB)
Draft:
1) Isaiah Simmons
2) Tyler Biadasz (assuming we trade down and get an extra 1st
3) Best tackle left on board
4) Best tackle left on board
5) Best tackle/guard left on board
6,7,7,7) WR, CB, S, LB, RB (in no particular order)
Note: with Eli retiring, I suspect DG will insist on getting a QB in the middle rounds to groom as Jones' backup. I personally think that's a waste of a pick, but what the hell do I know?
Problem solved. The 2 seconds says he's adept at both man and zone so S is a zone thing
In the draft I would take Simmons and a C at the top of round 2.
I would get Callahan in here and keep Solder at LT
This team would be built on a core of Jones, Barkley, Simmons, Yannick, Conklin, Lawrence, LW who would all be 21-26 yrs old and under contract for 3-5 years.
Nate Solder stunk last year. As a football player, there is no reason to believe that his son's health issues are going to allow him the focus not to stink this year.
There are not only cap savings to be had, but also the issue whether he ruins the mental makeup of DJ as a passer.
Joey Hunt (C, Seahawks)-reserve who started the last 8 games of the season and did so with a fractured fibula. Not a "hog mollie" and doesnt really fit their mold but pickins are slim. Stefan Wisniewski would be another option. Nothing too inspiring here but I dont see how you dont bring in someone to at least challenge Halapio. He was dreadful and will be coming off a major injury.
Nick Kwiatkowski (LB, Bears)-another reserve who played well in relief of an injured starter. Put up really nice numbers over his 7 starts.
Ross Cockrell (CB, Panthers)- The CB group is a young, largely inexperienced, and potentially volatile group. And in truth theres probably only 1 starter out of Baker, Beal, and Ballentine. They need a veteran or two. Cockrell had a serviceable 2019 season after missing 2018.
Jimmie Ward (FS, 49ers)- Injury history is a major mark against him. But hes got great versatility to play corner or safety and he wont break the bank. With Love as an insurance policy might be worth a small risk.
FA's who could be worth paying for:
Byron Jones (CB, Cowboys) or Darquez Dennard (CB, Bengals)- Will be hard for Dallas to pay Jones along with Dak and Cooper. Complete lack of turnovers is a concern, especially for a team that struggled so mightily in that area. Its hard to tell what kind of money Dennard will command but hes likely to be worth it. Logan Ryan and Bradley Roby could work too
Jack Conklin (RT, Titans)- Im not as sold on Conklin as many but it could still work out. He has a bit of an injury history but most do. According to PFF he also gets more help in pass pro than most. Titans may want to keep the OL together. Bryan Bulaga is another option and while older still plays at a high level. Can probably get 3 or 4 more years out of him.
Kyle Van Noy (Edge, Patriots)- Familiar with Judge and fits the versatility they want. Really dislike the idea of paying Golden what hes likely to command, would rather spend more on Van Noy.
As for the draft, I just know that Simmons makes me nervous. Would likd Okudah or a tackle if they think hes worth the pick. Id try to trade Engram, maybe a 3rd?
there
FA
Williams (12m)
A blue-chip pass rusher (20m)
An red-chip ILB (15m)
A red chip Center- if there is one (10m)
A red-chip Safety (10m)
A veternan CB (5m)
Sign a second pass rusher if money permits.
Draft
Trade down to QB hungry team or someone that wants Simmons or the Ohio State cornerback.
Get two of the top 6 OTs
Use the rest of the picks on BPA
Priority positions (LB, WR, C)