Day in and day out, there are many posts on this board touting different trade proposals with the intent of obtaining more picks. At the same time, we also see a barrage of posts complaining that our football team lacks elite difference makers, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Here in lies the paradox. If you want an elite play-maker, the place you find that player is right where we sit: at the very top of the draft. Khalil Mack, The Bosa Brothers, Von miller: elite players with the skill set to transform a from seven all had one thing in common, they were all selected at the very top of the draft, 3 of them with the second overall pick. The chance of finding a player of this caliber declines dramatically as the draft rolls on.
To get one in free agency if one ever somehow becomes available, be prepared to shell out 25 MIL per year or more. A trade? What did the Bears give up in draft capital to acquire Mack? There are 3 defensive studs in this year's draft, all 3 a real potential difference maker. Our Giants will have one of them staring us in the face when we are on the clock at #4. I know which one I am all in on. My only fear is that the Lions pick him off at #3.
An O-lineman with the pick as so many are touting? Yes, we all want to improve the O-line big time. Yet, you do not need the best tackle to have an excellent line. A very competent tackle can be had with our 2nd pick and beyond. An elite difference maker for our D? Not so likely.
So BBI brethren, do your homework and you will find that the best Giant O-lines over the years contained very few high picks. From Francis Peay (1966), John Hicks, Gordon King all the way to our most recent #1 pick, the great Eric Flowers, most of our high OL picks have been abysmal. Perfect example is Jumbo Elliott taken in the 2nd round (1988), one of the best tackles this franchise has ever had. He proved to be a much better player than Eric Moore taken 10th overall in the same draft. The fact is the Giants have built their best O-lines with second rounders, later round picks and the occasional free agent.
So, for the chicken-little/sky-is-falling squad that pollute this site on a daily basis, I have some bad news for you. The needle is pointing up for our beloved Giants and we will probably not be in this position again for years to come. Therefore, you are going to have less to complain about in the future. You want a game changer on D, now is the time to get one while we have a premium pick. There will be an elite defensive-difference-maker waiting to be plucked with the 4th pick in this draft. Grab him and don't look back..
T.J. Watt drafted 30th overall.
Aaron Donald drafted 13th overall.
It's who you pick not where. There will be good players in both the first and second rounds, Giants just need to identify them.
Gettleman has to decide what he is going to do with Leo Williams. I am assuming he will be RE-signed. The next guy is Marcus Golden. Is he gonna be brought back or will the Giants open up the wallet and go after Ngakoue. We know DG knows we need a pass rush.
The O Line is still a problem. I think a free agent Center should be brought in. Connor McGovern is the guy I’d like to see signed. The OT position can be found in rounds 1 or 2 if the draft.
I think we would all be very happy if the pass rush was fortified and the Center position was fixed prior to the draft. That is where I would start.
On the other hand, If you want to argue Simmons as he had 8 sacks and 5-6 hurries last year on only 71 pass rush attempts that argument can be made especially in a 3-4 with a creative DC
We've picked in the top 6,in each of the last 3 drafts, we could easily pick in the top 6 once again next year as you can't build an OL or a defense overnight. The key is to be smart with our decision in the immediate future.
I agree with the guy who said "It's not where you pick but who you pick", and I would extend that to "It doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who does the picking".
The main argument against "after #4 it's all garbage" is that, historically, top four teams suck for long long periods of time.
I’m in the ‘just don’t fuck it up’ camp which means if there’s a floor concern eg simmons, pass.
In my perfect world, we trade down a spot or two - the giants are able to identify a perennial all pro left tackle and add another playmaker or two with the additional picks.
If that perennial all proLT isn’t there you take the next guy who has a chance to be a the all pro at their position. Maybe that’s okudah. No idea. Neither do any of the fans.
I agree with the guy who said "It's not where you pick but who you pick", and I would extend that to "It doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who does the picking".
The main argument against "after #4 it's all garbage" is that, historically, top four teams suck for long long periods of time.
Agreed, but would add that there are rarely close to sure things in drafting. Over and over you see Dion Jordans drafted top 3 or 4 and HOF caliber guys drafted outside the top 10. I’d rather not put all my chips on #4 and take an extra swing at it. When I see the likes of AJ Epenesa mocked at 11 or 12, I can’t help but think of JJ Watt and Aaron Donald who were passed by too. If we can get a guy like him PLUS one of the myriad LSU and Bama guys with an extra second rounder ... sign me up.
thx
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BB did OK with a sixth round QB and the #32 picks.
I agree with the guy who said "It's not where you pick but who you pick", and I would extend that to "It doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who does the picking".
The main argument against "after #4 it's all garbage" is that, historically, top four teams suck for long long periods of time.
Agreed, but would add that there are rarely close to sure things in drafting. Over and over you see Dion Jordans drafted top 3 or 4 and HOF caliber guys drafted outside the top 10. I’d rather not put all my chips on #4 and take an extra swing at it. When I see the likes of AJ Epenesa mocked at 11 or 12, I can’t help but think of JJ Watt and Aaron Donald who were passed by too. If we can get a guy like him PLUS one of the myriad LSU and Bama guys with an extra second rounder ... sign me up.
Epenesa does not show the pass rush ability the other 2 had. He is a powerful man but lacks pass rush moves.
Exactly. This post contributes nothing.
Many people advocating for a trade-down are doing so under the premise that there is no risk-free elite difference-maker at a premium position available at #4. You can't just make one up out of thin air and assume that guy is definitely going to be available at #4, just like you can't assume that the Giants CAN'T get a terrific value/need combo just a few picks later at #6, or #7, or #9, or #12, etc.
My whole thing is I really believe the only two non-QBs in this draft worth a top 5 pick are Young and Okudah. If there was a sure-fire elite OT in this draft then I'd sit right at #4 and take him, but I don't believe there is one. If Devin White were in this draft, I'd very strongly consider sitting at #4 and taking him, but I don't think anyone (including Simmons) is as good as White.
None of this is to say that there aren't good players in this draft who could go on to become perennial pro-bowlers. But I do believe AS PROSPECTS, beyond Burrow, Young, and Okudah, the talent from picks #4-#13 is relatively equal compared to other drafts.
It's honestly quite unfortunate we're likely going to just barely miss out on those dudes I just mentioned, but if it results in the Bengals-Skins-Lions staying put and drafting them 1-2-3, it might be a blessing in disguise that sets us up as the prime team to get a haul in a trade from a team that falls in love with Tua or Herbert and needs to jump right in front of the Dolphins-Panthers-Jags.
None of this is to say that there aren't good players in this draft who could go on to become perennial pro-bowlers. But I do believe AS PROSPECTS, beyond Burrow, Young, and Okudah, the talent from picks #4-#13 is relatively equal compared to other drafts.
This statement is just far too reaching.
You can caveat all you want with the phrasing of PROSPECTS, but the fact is there will be a lot more guys than just 3 that everyone will look upon several years from and say..."I wish we drafted this guy....he's great".
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In comment 14787465 Jim in NH said:
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BB did OK with a sixth round QB and the #32 picks.
I agree with the guy who said "It's not where you pick but who you pick", and I would extend that to "It doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who does the picking".
The main argument against "after #4 it's all garbage" is that, historically, top four teams suck for long long periods of time.
Agreed, but would add that there are rarely close to sure things in drafting. Over and over you see Dion Jordans drafted top 3 or 4 and HOF caliber guys drafted outside the top 10. I’d rather not put all my chips on #4 and take an extra swing at it. When I see the likes of AJ Epenesa mocked at 11 or 12, I can’t help but think of JJ Watt and Aaron Donald who were passed by too. If we can get a guy like him PLUS one of the myriad LSU and Bama guys with an extra second rounder ... sign me up.
Epenesa does not show the pass rush ability the other 2 had. He is a powerful man but lacks pass rush moves.
I humbly disagree with that conclusion. I see a guy who could be an excellent pass rusher. And PS, JJ Watt had 11 career sacks in his 2 years playing defense in college, Espenesa had 27 in 2.5 years.
Erik Dorsey
Mark Collins
Erik Howard
Pepper Johnson
Greg Lasker
John Washington
Not bad. Not bad at all.
Then George went offense with next nine first round picks
(including the supplemental they wasted on Dave Brown)
George drove me nuts as I thought I saw our great defense begin to decline. I still can't figure this out.
1987 - Mark Ingram (Not a 1st round value, but he made huge
play in the Super Bowl)
1988 - Eric Moore -(bad pick rescued by Jumbo Eliot in 2nd)
1989 - Brian Williams
1990 - Rodney Hampton (popular player, but his low
yards/carry didn't impress me.)
1991 - Jarrod Bunch
1992 - Derek Brown (Derek who?)
1993 Supplemental - Dave Brown forfeited 1993 1st round
1994 - Thomas Lewis
1995 - Tyrone Wheatley
Finally in 1996 Cedric Jones
George, George What were you thinking?
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None of this is to say that there aren't good players in this draft who could go on to become perennial pro-bowlers. But I do believe AS PROSPECTS, beyond Burrow, Young, and Okudah, the talent from picks #4-#13 is relatively equal compared to other drafts.
This statement is just far too reaching.
You can caveat all you want with the phrasing of PROSPECTS, but the fact is there will be a lot more guys than just 3 that everyone will look upon several years from and say..."I wish we drafted this guy....he's great".
Of course there will be, that's why in the exact line you quoted from me I was saying there are other players who will go on to become perennial pro bowlers besides just those 3 players. No question there will be, and no question there will be guys we pass on who 31 other teams will look back on and say "wow I wish we drafted that guy." You can't stop that from happening.
But we have no idea which player is going to be that guy. You can only look at players in the draft as prospects; i.e. what is the *probability* that this guy is going to turn out to be a special player.
For the record, I do think that Derrick Brown and Jerry Jeudy are elite talents as well, but given our strength on the interior DL I'm not sure Brown is worth the #4 pick for NYG, and also in general I don't think the Giants can afford to go WR at that pick especially IF they have an opportunity to get a haul in a trade-down (and as great as Jeudy is I don't see him having Calvin Johnson -like impact).
I'll be more specific, as far as non-QBs go, and considering all three of: value AND need AND positional value for the Giants specifically, I believe there are two tiers of high-end possible picks in this draft:
Tier 1:
Chase Young, EDGE
Jeffrey Okudah, CB
Tier 2:
(in no particular order)
Derrick Brown, IDL
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jedrick Wills, OT
Tristan Wirfs, OT
Andrew Thomas, OT
Isaiah Simmons, LB
CeeDee Lamb, WR
A.J. Espenesa, EDGE
Kristian Fulton, CB
K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE
You can argue that I left out guys like Grant Delpit, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, D'Andre Swift, etc. out of tier 2, but this is just my personal opinion and again the list is solely based on my perception of NYG needs.
My point is of the guys in that tier 2 list I don't think any one guy stands out over the others for the Giants as a "must-have" player (and I do believe every one of those guys has the potential to be great, I just don't know which ones, I consider them all having equal chance of being perennial pro-bowlers). That's 10 guys I just named who literally you couldn't convince me of being more happy that the Giants got one guy over another guy, I'd probably have the exact same reaction to the Giants drafting any one of those 10 guys. That's why I'm saying: if Young or Okudah are there, grab them and don't look back, but if not, trade back several slots and then take the BPA of these guys remaining based on all the analysis and scouting done by NYG between now and draft day (and based on what happens in FA).
Again, I'm an amateur and this is just my opinion of these prospects, but the bottom-line I'm getting at is I think there are TWO non-QBs who in my mind are "sure-things" (even though that doesn't really exist, they're as about close as you'll get) and then there's about 10 guys (more or less) of whom I don't favor one over the other. That leads me to believe a trade-down would be ideal, especially in a year where you have 2 QBs (Tua and Herbert) who have been talked about as potential top 5 picks and franchise QBs for a couple years now. I can see at least one team falling in love with one of these guys and trading a decent haul to move up.
Whether we pick #4, #10, or #32, considering BPA and need, if you have a conviction about an impact defender, you do it.
Although the Giants need o-line and WR talent, those players can come from anywhere in the draft. It is much less likely (but not impossible) to find impact defenders in the lower rounds, so if you have a chance to get one, grab him as soon as you can.
Whether we pick #4, #10, or #32, considering BPA and need, if you have a conviction about an impact defender, you do it.
Although the Giants need o-line and WR talent, those players can come from anywhere in the draft. It is much less likely (but not impossible) to find impact defenders in the lower rounds, so if you have a chance to get one, grab him as soon as you can.
I'd argue that we need a few impact players. One way to attempt to get a few would be a trade down scenario. Especially picking at the top of the draft, you'll often get an additional 1st rounder this year or next, and a 2nd and 3rd/4th. Dropping down but staying in the Top 10 should yield a quality player.
For arguments sake let’s say the following players are signed:
1. Nkagoue
2. Conklin
3. Jones
4. Schubert
5. Simmons
Juedy would make sense as we could use a sure fire impact player and he would probably start and give Jones a deep threat.
Point is, lots happens before the draft.
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In comment 14787592 Leg of Theismann said:
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None of this is to say that there aren't good players in this draft who could go on to become perennial pro-bowlers. But I do believe AS PROSPECTS, beyond Burrow, Young, and Okudah, the talent from picks #4-#13 is relatively equal compared to other drafts.
This statement is just far too reaching.
You can caveat all you want with the phrasing of PROSPECTS, but the fact is there will be a lot more guys than just 3 that everyone will look upon several years from and say..."I wish we drafted this guy....he's great".
Of course there will be, that's why in the exact line you quoted from me I was saying there are other players who will go on to become perennial pro bowlers besides just those 3 players. No question there will be, and no question there will be guys we pass on who 31 other teams will look back on and say "wow I wish we drafted that guy." You can't stop that from happening.
But we have no idea which player is going to be that guy. You can only look at players in the draft as prospects; i.e. what is the *probability* that this guy is going to turn out to be a special player.
For the record, I do think that Derrick Brown and Jerry Jeudy are elite talents as well, but given our strength on the interior DL I'm not sure Brown is worth the #4 pick for NYG, and also in general I don't think the Giants can afford to go WR at that pick especially IF they have an opportunity to get a haul in a trade-down (and as great as Jeudy is I don't see him having Calvin Johnson -like impact).
I'll be more specific, as far as non-QBs go, and considering all three of: value AND need AND positional value for the Giants specifically, I believe there are two tiers of high-end possible picks in this draft:
I would say
Tier 1:
Chase Young, EDGE
Tier 2
Jeffrey Okudah, CB
Isaiah Simmons, LB
Derrick Brown, IDL
Tier 3:
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jedrick Wills, OT
Tristan Wirfs, OT
Andrew Thomas, OT
CeeDee Lamb, WR
A.J. Espenesa, EDGE
Kristian Fulton, CB
K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE
Grant Delpit
Tee Higgins, D'Andre Swift, etc. out of tier 2, but this is just my personal opinion and again the list is solely based on my perception of NYG needs.
My point is of the guys in that tier 2 list I don't think any one guy stands out over the others for the Giants as a "must-have" player (and I do believe every one of those guys has the potential to be great, I just don't know which ones, I consider them all having equal chance of being perennial pro-bowlers). That's 10 guys I just named who literally you couldn't convince me of being more happy that the Giants got one guy over another guy, I'd probably have the exact same reaction to the Giants drafting any one of those 10 guys. That's why I'm saying: if Young or Okudah are there, grab them and don't look back, but if not, trade back several slots and then take the BPA of these guys remaining based on all the analysis and scouting done by NYG between now and draft day (and based on what happens in FA).
Again, I'm an amateur and this is just my opinion of these prospects, but the bottom-line I'm getting at is I think there are TWO non-QBs who in my mind are "sure-things" (even though that doesn't really exist, they're as about close as you'll get) and then there's about 10 guys (more or less) of whom I don't favor one over the other. That leads me to believe a trade-down would be ideal, especially in a year where you have 2 QBs (Tua and Herbert) who have been talked about as potential top 5 picks and franchise QBs for a couple years now. I can see at least one team falling in love with one of these guys and trading a decent haul to move up.
Great list I might suggest the following adjustment
Tier 1:
Chase Young, EDGE
Tier 2
Jeffrey Okudah, CB
Isaiah Simmons, LB
Derrick Brown, IDL
Tier 3:
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jedrick Wills, OT
Tristan Wirfs, OT
Andrew Thomas, OT
CeeDee Lamb, WR
A.J. Espenesa, EDGE
Kristian Fulton, CB
K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE
Grant Delpit
Tee Higgins
There are 14 players on it. Add 3 QBs (Burrows, Herbert, Tua) and Swift and it means you could get the worst guy on this list at #18.
A trade down would be great if we got two of the top 18 or if we stayed in the top 7 or 8 and picked up a high pick in round two.
Would you trade Akudah for Wills and Wirfs?
Whether we pick #4, #10, or #32, considering BPA and need, if you have a conviction about an impact defender, you do it.
Although the Giants need o-line and WR talent, those players can come from anywhere in the draft. It is much less likely (but not impossible) to find impact defenders in the lower rounds, so if you have a chance to get one, grab him as soon as you can.
I don't think you can make those assumptions.
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In comment 14787465 Jim in NH said:
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BB did OK with a sixth round QB and the #32 picks.
I agree with the guy who said "It's not where you pick but who you pick", and I would extend that to "It doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who does the picking".
The main argument against "after #4 it's all garbage" is that, historically, top four teams suck for long long periods of time.
Agreed, but would add that there are rarely close to sure things in drafting. Over and over you see Dion Jordans drafted top 3 or 4 and HOF caliber guys drafted outside the top 10. I’d rather not put all my chips on #4 and take an extra swing at it. When I see the likes of AJ Epenesa mocked at 11 or 12, I can’t help but think of JJ Watt and Aaron Donald who were passed by too. If we can get a guy like him PLUS one of the myriad LSU and Bama guys with an extra second rounder ... sign me up.
Epenesa does not show the pass rush ability the other 2 had. He is a powerful man but lacks pass rush moves.
That is the most hilarious thing I've read on this site in a while.
Epenesa is one of the more advanced pass rushers I have seen coming out of college in a while. He sets the tackle up with his footwork, and his hand work is AMAZING. He closes fast and always goes for the strip when he gets home. He can bull rush, swim, rip, speed, he has a great package of pass rush moves.
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In comment 14787514 Jim from Katonah said:
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In comment 14787465 Jim in NH said:
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BB did OK with a sixth round QB and the #32 picks.
I agree with the guy who said "It's not where you pick but who you pick", and I would extend that to "It doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who does the picking".
The main argument against "after #4 it's all garbage" is that, historically, top four teams suck for long long periods of time.
Agreed, but would add that there are rarely close to sure things in drafting. Over and over you see Dion Jordans drafted top 3 or 4 and HOF caliber guys drafted outside the top 10. I’d rather not put all my chips on #4 and take an extra swing at it. When I see the likes of AJ Epenesa mocked at 11 or 12, I can’t help but think of JJ Watt and Aaron Donald who were passed by too. If we can get a guy like him PLUS one of the myriad LSU and Bama guys with an extra second rounder ... sign me up.
Epenesa does not show the pass rush ability the other 2 had. He is a powerful man but lacks pass rush moves.
That is the most hilarious thing I've read on this site in a while.
Epenesa is one of the more advanced pass rushers I have seen coming out of college in a while. He sets the tackle up with his footwork, and his hand work is AMAZING. He closes fast and always goes for the strip when he gets home. He can bull rush, swim, rip, speed, he has a great package of pass rush moves.
I agree with All Star Jim. And anyone who says that JJ Watt (and his 11 career sacks in college) exhibited greater pash rush ability than Epenesa (and his 27 career sacks in college) is engaging in revisionist history. I would love to see what DC Graham could do with this massive, versatile and 21 year old chess piece.
Sincerely, Practice Squad/Waivers Jim
I don't know... given how much mediocrity there is on this roster of players who are utter liabilities, I think transforming one top-5 pick into 3 top 75 picks (if possible) might be the way to go. If it came down to a choice, a team in the Giants' state could see more benefit from drafting a greater number starting-caliber players than they can from getting one elite player.
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In comment 14787530 Pheonix Orion said:
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In comment 14787514 Jim from Katonah said:
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In comment 14787465 Jim in NH said:
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BB did OK with a sixth round QB and the #32 picks.
I agree with the guy who said "It's not where you pick but who you pick", and I would extend that to "It doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who does the picking".
The main argument against "after #4 it's all garbage" is that, historically, top four teams suck for long long periods of time.
Agreed, but would add that there are rarely close to sure things in drafting. Over and over you see Dion Jordans drafted top 3 or 4 and HOF caliber guys drafted outside the top 10. I’d rather not put all my chips on #4 and take an extra swing at it. When I see the likes of AJ Epenesa mocked at 11 or 12, I can’t help but think of JJ Watt and Aaron Donald who were passed by too. If we can get a guy like him PLUS one of the myriad LSU and Bama guys with an extra second rounder ... sign me up.
Epenesa does not show the pass rush ability the other 2 had. He is a powerful man but lacks pass rush moves.
That is the most hilarious thing I've read on this site in a while.
Epenesa is one of the more advanced pass rushers I have seen coming out of college in a while. He sets the tackle up with his footwork, and his hand work is AMAZING. He closes fast and always goes for the strip when he gets home. He can bull rush, swim, rip, speed, he has a great package of pass rush moves.
I agree with All Star Jim. And anyone who says that JJ Watt (and his 11 career sacks in college) exhibited greater pash rush ability than Epenesa (and his 27 career sacks in college) is engaging in revisionist history. I would love to see what DC Graham could do with this massive, versatile and 21 year old chess piece.
Sincerely, Practice Squad/Waivers Jim
LOL. I'd love to change my handle here to BenchwarmerJim, or HighMotorWhiteGuyJim
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In comment 14788041 allstarjim said:
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In comment 14787530 Pheonix Orion said:
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In comment 14787514 Jim from Katonah said:
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In comment 14787465 Jim in NH said:
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BB did OK with a sixth round QB and the #32 picks.
I agree with the guy who said "It's not where you pick but who you pick", and I would extend that to "It doesn't matter where you pick, it matters who does the picking".
The main argument against "after #4 it's all garbage" is that, historically, top four teams suck for long long periods of time.
Agreed, but would add that there are rarely close to sure things in drafting. Over and over you see Dion Jordans drafted top 3 or 4 and HOF caliber guys drafted outside the top 10. I’d rather not put all my chips on #4 and take an extra swing at it. When I see the likes of AJ Epenesa mocked at 11 or 12, I can’t help but think of JJ Watt and Aaron Donald who were passed by too. If we can get a guy like him PLUS one of the myriad LSU and Bama guys with an extra second rounder ... sign me up.
Epenesa does not show the pass rush ability the other 2 had. He is a powerful man but lacks pass rush moves.
That is the most hilarious thing I've read on this site in a while.
Epenesa is one of the more advanced pass rushers I have seen coming out of college in a while. He sets the tackle up with his footwork, and his hand work is AMAZING. He closes fast and always goes for the strip when he gets home. He can bull rush, swim, rip, speed, he has a great package of pass rush moves.
I agree with All Star Jim. And anyone who says that JJ Watt (and his 11 career sacks in college) exhibited greater pash rush ability than Epenesa (and his 27 career sacks in college) is engaging in revisionist history. I would love to see what DC Graham could do with this massive, versatile and 21 year old chess piece.
Sincerely, Practice Squad/Waivers Jim
LOL. I'd love to change my handle here to BenchwarmerJim, or HighMotorWhiteGuyJim
I’d settle for Veteran Minimum!
Looking at it historically, let’s compare number 4 picks from 2009 - 2015 versus number 12 and 25 picks (roughly equivalent in draft value points) for the same period:
Number 4 picks 2009 - 2015
Aaron Curry, Trent Williams, AJ Green, Matt Kalil, Lane Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper
Number 12 and 25 picks 2009 - 2015
Knowshon Moreno Vontae Davis, Ryan Matthews, Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, James Carpenter, Fletcher Cox, Donta Hightower, DJ Hayden, Xavier Rhodes, Odell Beckham, Jason Verett, Danny Shelton, Shaq Thompson
One likely HOF from group 1(Trent), one possible (AJ), 4 good players, 1bust
Two possible HOF from group 2 (Fletcher and Odell), 8 good players, some busts (Tebow, Ponder).
In most circumstances, especially the Giants who have many holes to fill, my opinion is more picks trumps the top 5 pick.