With the regular season already ended and the Super Bowl around the corner, the NFL QB landscape is starting to shape up even more. To me, this is a projected list of teams looking for a QB - either definitely or potentially. With the draft coming up and FA about to begin, the Giant's #4 pick could (and in my opinion will) be a hot a commodity.
Team that will seemingly be looking to address the QB position in some capacity:
1.)Miami - tanked for Tua - may have to move up to get him
2.)Cincy - Burrow seems likely to end up here at #1
3.)NE - TB12 is FA and all signs point to him leaving
4.)Pitt - Big Ben says he's coming back, backups didn't look great
5.)Indy - they're stuck with Brissett next year - but after that he's a FA.
6.)Jax - they've got very little invested in Minshew, they might fall in love with someone in the draft this year, they also didn't love him enough to keep him the starter when Foles came back...who, by the way, stunk.
7.)Titans - Tennehill is a FA - he looked great in the regular season, but do they think he's the answer. Do they have the money to sign both he and Henry?
8.)Raiders - whispers of Gruden not loving Carr? His contract is easily voidable at this point
9.)Chargers - Rivers is seemingly all but gone - Does anyone know who else is on the QB depth chart there?
10.)Broncos - Did Lock show enough at the end of the year to convince anyone he's the long term answer? It feels like they are on the hunt for a QB every year.
11.)Bears - 5th year option on his rookie contract for Trubisky is THIS year.
12.)Bucs - Do the Bucs believe in Winston? Rivers moved to FL and now he's being connected to TB.
13.)Saints - Brees, Bridgewater and Hill are all FA. They've got some decisions to make.
14.)Carolina - what do they do with Cam?
15.) Dallas - they've got to pay Dak like a top 5 QB to keep him this off season. Imagine if Jerry decides to make a run at TB12?
That's 15 teams that should be thinking (at least in my mind) about the QB position and what to do. There's an interesting crop of FA QBs this year - Rivers, TB12, Bridgewater, and Winston (potentially) to fill some of those spots.
That's a lot of deck chairs that need re-arranging and some of these teams are going to be looking to the draft for a QB.
Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Hurts, Eason and Fromm make an interesting group of QBs to pick from and, like someone said, you only need on of those teams to fall in love with someone to make a move up.
I know that DG doesn't trade down but since they are unlikely to land Young - this HAS to be the year it happens with so many teams in need of a QB ... right?
Right now, I prefer to trade down, especially since we're out of the Chase Young "sweepstakes," and we lost our third round pick in the Williams trade. Yes, we get a third round comp pick in all likelihood for Collins, but just like last year, we'll have to watch 65 or so players come off the board in the second and third rounds before that pick. This team has a ton of holes, and we already have Jones as our QB of the future. Many other teams need a QB as you note.
It seems like the perfect storm for the Giants use that leverage at #4 to make a deal and load up on picks so that they can finally have a roster with some talent.
1. A trade partner.
2. An enticing offer from that partner that's worth leaving a player you covet sitting there at #4.
Beyond that, there almost has to be a perfect storm of things aligning for this to happen, including but not limiting to:
-a player that somebody covets dropping to that spot unexpectedly
-your board lining up as such that if you drop to say, #10 overall there will be multiple choices that you're confident will be there.
-Getting a 1st round pick in return. For me? If I'm expecting to move into the Top 5, I've got to consider that it's going to be a high price to pay. So conversely, to move out, that's what I want in return. You want your QB of the future? Well, you gotta pay for those.
-Timing. Teams are price checking well before the draft. The closer you get to the draft, including on draft day, the better the leverage you have as the team trying to trade down, because it's do or die time for the other teams trying to move up. But at the same time, a lot of deals probably fall apart during that fifteen minutes as well. It's a poker game.
These are just a few of the things that go into trading out of a pick. The talk around here is that it's easy peasy lemon squeezy. It's not.
Your trading partner must also have the assets needed to move up. You would look for teams with either a pick shortly after the Giants, or teams with multiple #1 or #2 picks in 2020.
That is unless you will take future picks - meaning you most likely don't get equal value this year. I don't see that given Gettleman's need to show improvement this year.
Detroit is the team in the cat bird seat. Not the Giants
Detroit is the team in the cat bird seat. Not the Giants
Absolutely. It's Detroit's dilemma or good fortune. Not ours.
But, it does push a player down and gives us a better choice of direction.
Detroit is the team in the cat bird seat. Not the Giants
Yes, was just about to post this.
Detroit is the team in the cat bird seat. Not the Giants
Bingo and there is no reason for anyone to trade up to 4 until Detroit makes that pick. If they trade it you have to find someone who is ok with the 3rd QB. we are talking about a deal that has to happen in the time we are on the clock not sometujng that can be talked about for months.
Chris (Otis) Mara and Dave (Barney) Gettleman Draft Trade - ( New Window )
Detroit is the team in the cat bird seat. Not the Giants
Correctamundo.
I'd love to trade down this year (which is odd, because I'm not usually in favor of it. Probably has more to do with trading away #68). But I'm not counting on it, nor am I expecting it, and given Gettleman's history, I don't think anyone should, really.
Maybe I'm just getting cynical in my old age, but I have very little faith in Gettleman making good moves this offseason.
1. A trade partner.
2. An enticing offer from that partner that's worth leaving a player you covet sitting there at #4.
Beyond that, there almost has to be a perfect storm of things aligning for this to happen, including but not limiting to:
-a player that somebody covets dropping to that spot unexpectedly
-your board lining up as such that if you drop to say, #10 overall there will be multiple choices that you're confident will be there.
-Getting a 1st round pick in return. For me? If I'm expecting to move into the Top 5, I've got to consider that it's going to be a high price to pay. So conversely, to move out, that's what I want in return. You want your QB of the future? Well, you gotta pay for those.
-Timing. Teams are price checking well before the draft. The closer you get to the draft, including on draft day, the better the leverage you have as the team trying to trade down, because it's do or die time for the other teams trying to move up. But at the same time, a lot of deals probably fall apart during that fifteen minutes as well. It's a poker game.
These are just a few of the things that go into trading out of a pick. The talk around here is that it's easy peasy lemon squeezy. It's not.
I'm not suggesting that it's easy at all...what I am suggesting is that the market will be full of teams looking for a QB. There's just not enough quality FA options for all these teams to fill the QB position.
I'll also say there's multiple teams that have the capital to make such a move ie. Dolphins and Raiders are 2 examples.
The other piece is that it seems like this is a Burrow/Young draft. I'm no scout, but after that, the slam dunk talk kinda ends.
Detroit is the team in the cat bird seat. Not the Giants
Well said
It seems like the perfect storm for the Giants use that leverage at #4 to make a deal and load up on picks so that they can finally have a roster with some talent.
Same, over half the league is going to need a new QB in the next 2 offseasons - that's pretty nuts. And its good for us, it will either push a player to us, or it will give us a legitimate option to trade back for a haul (not into predicting these scenarios but its certainly possible).
His contract is brutal for Detroit.
Eventually the Falcons will run into the same problem with Matt Ryan.
I did consider Detroit when I made the list.
He's 31 years old. He's two years into a five year contract that could be considered very reasonable now based on the jump in QB salary recently.
It's too early for them to pull the plug.
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Would he be someone you would put all your faith in, or, would you take a crack at getting an heir (Tua) in yourself?
His contract is brutal for Detroit.
Eventually the Falcons will run into the same problem with Matt Ryan.
I did consider Detroit when I made the list.
"Potential Out: 2021, 4 yr, $108,500,000; $13,600,000 dead cap"
Keep him 1 more year, let the rookie watch him, then take over the following year.
You're right - it's possible that Detroit could take Tua, let him heal and sit next year and then opt out after next year - the hit wouldn't be too terrible.
True + whoever else pops up ... last year at this time literally no one was talking about Burrow going #1 or in the 1st round.
Asking for a #1 for a small trade down is not realistic, even if we know the other team wants a QB. This is why we never trade down. We ask for way too much, and other teams not surprisingly say no. Then DG comes out and says that all he was offered to trade down was a hot dog, a pretzel, and a box of doughnuts. To go down to #9, I'd take a #2 and a #3. This team has a ton of holes. Get more picks, or for the second straight year, we'll watch 65 picks come off the board in rounds two and three. #9 and a #2 and a #3 is greater than #4.
BUT - I still think teams are going to clamour to get Herbert, Eason, Fromm and maybe even Hurts. I think with this many teams in need of a QB, I don't think teams will be comfortable just sitting there and hoping that there guy falls to them.
I have a feeling that the teams still need of a QB come draft time will have an sense of urgency to get one.
Or better yet, the Chargers or Carolina or maybe even the Raiders (who have multiple 1st rd picks) also love Herbert and want to leap over the Dolphins to get him. Now you've got yourself a bidding war.
If Burrows, Young are off the board 1 and 2 then I'm pretty sure the QB needy teams will be looking at 3 and 4 to make a move. Hell for us the best option may be Miami make a a trade with Detroit, because if it goes Burrows, Young, Tua then someone is going to panic for Herbert.
I do think however the ranks of the truly desperate QB needy teams will thin out before the draft with some of the veteran options being taken up (I can see Dalton going to NE if Brady moves on, Rivers going to Tampa etc)
True, and you also need a GM willing to take a phone call. I'll give DG something of a pass for not answering the phone in 2018 since he was so smitten with Barkley (although he should still listen to offers), but unless Chase Young drops to 4, there is no excuse for at least listening to trade down offers.
Right now, I prefer to trade down, especially since we're out of the Chase Young "sweepstakes," and we lost our third round pick in the Williams trade. Yes, we get a third round comp pick in all likelihood for Collins, but just like last year, we'll have to watch 65 or so players come off the board in the second and third rounds before that pick. This team has a ton of holes, and we already have Jones as our QB of the future. Many other teams need a QB as you note.
If Brady is available i'd be stunned if Jerry didn't try and bring him to Dallas. The move makes so much sense it's scary. Not that I think Brady vaults Dallas, but some would likely think he's the missing piece. why not.
Detroit is the team in the cat bird seat. Not the Giants
Definitely. Best case scenario - WASH and DET trade out to QB-needy teams, Chase Young falls to 4.
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But you need at least two things in alignment to make this happen from the jump:
True, and you also need a GM willing to take a phone call. I'll give DG something of a pass for not answering the phone in 2018 since he was so smitten with Barkley (although he should still listen to offers), but unless Chase Young drops to 4, there is no excuse for at least listening to trade down offers.
I'm not sure I believe that Gettleman didn't listen to offers in 2018. I am more sure that he didn't hear enough to make him want to consider trading the pick. That's where the hot dog and a bag of donuts rhetoric came from, IMO. The market for QB that year was overstated, and I think that showed up in the value of those that did trade up, gave up.
A team like Miami must acquire a QB.
Other teams like Carolina, San Diego, Tampa, are in need and have the draft capital to move up.
By most accounts this is a (3) Quarterback draft. Burrow, Tua, and Hebert.
Cincinnati will draft Burrow.
That leaves at least (4) teams vying for (2) QBs.
Somebody will miss out.
It is not possible to know what teams are willing to do to obtain their QB, but, there will be a lot of discussions. I would not be surprised if one of the three needy teams makes a trade prior to the draft similar to the Jets trade for Donald.
Carolina, San Diego, and Tampa must jump Miami to make certain that they get their guy.
Detroit will likely be a trade partner while Washington may not if they are enamored with Young.
If two Qbs go in the first three picks that puts the Giants in a great position.
That leaves us in a good spot with teams like Miami,The Chargers,Carolina,and maybe Jacksonville in the qb market.With Tua and Herbert being the only ones worth a top 10 pick.
We just have to hope Detroit doesn't make a deal and takes a player they love. If they do, then when the Giants are on the clock, the phone will be ringing.
I wouldn't lay down parameters at all..."if Tua is on the board when we are on the clock, we'll be waiting by the phone, come with your strongest offer."
You put out there what you're willing to accept, prior to the draft, and word can start getting around. Then all of a sudden you have Detroit thinking maybe this package the Giants are offered is better than 'x' player.
Also, I don't think Okudah is a foregone conclusion at 4 if it goes Burrow-Young-Tua. And I don't think the alternative is limited to Simmons. I think there will be a few other players discussed, including OT, Epenesa, perhaps Derrick Brown and Jeudy (I do not prefer Jeudy but nothing surprises me anymore).
Asking for a #1 for a small trade down is not realistic, even if we know the other team wants a QB. This is why we never trade down. We ask for way too much, and other teams not surprisingly say no. Then DG comes out and says that all he was offered to trade down was a hot dog, a pretzel, and a box of doughnuts. To go down to #9, I'd take a #2 and a #3. This team has a ton of holes. Get more picks, or for the second straight year, we'll watch 65 picks come off the board in rounds two and three. #9 and a #2 and a #3 is greater than #4.
Detroit may be higher, but they are not necessarily in a better position. Teams want to move up to get a guy, and they typically do it by jumping to the team drafting immediately above that one.
In any event, as I've said on several occasions, Burrow is going 1 and Young going 2. I do not see Washington bypassing Young. That leaves two spots and two QBs in Tua and Herbert. Gettleman should be able to get a haul for Herbert in that situation. You're talking about a QB that - before the season - was in the discussion for the first pick overall. Both Houston and KC gave up a ton to move up and get Watson and Mahomes in 2017, though they were vaulting from the 20s to 10 and 12.
Teams trading into the top 5 should expect to pay a premium to get their QBs. Even if Gettleman only flip flops with Miami, let's say, history shows that he should be able to pick up two thirds in such a swap, a price Miami should easily pay if they want Herbert (or Tua) badly enough.
That said, those teams can still logically take a QB in this draft, although I feel it would make them less likely to trade up.
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post, although I'd be stunned if Jones tries for Brady. He'll pay up for Dak IMO.
Right now, I prefer to trade down, especially since we're out of the Chase Young "sweepstakes," and we lost our third round pick in the Williams trade. Yes, we get a third round comp pick in all likelihood for Collins, but just like last year, we'll have to watch 65 or so players come off the board in the second and third rounds before that pick. This team has a ton of holes, and we already have Jones as our QB of the future. Many other teams need a QB as you note.
If Brady is available i'd be stunned if Jerry didn't try and bring him to Dallas. The move makes so much sense it's scary. Not that I think Brady vaults Dallas, but some would likely think he's the missing piece. why not.
Because Dak is a better QB right now...
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the Lions are in a better position, but as someone noted, it's not hard to imagine a team moving up for Herbert.
Asking for a #1 for a small trade down is not realistic, even if we know the other team wants a QB. This is why we never trade down. We ask for way too much, and other teams not surprisingly say no. Then DG comes out and says that all he was offered to trade down was a hot dog, a pretzel, and a box of doughnuts. To go down to #9, I'd take a #2 and a #3. This team has a ton of holes. Get more picks, or for the second straight year, we'll watch 65 picks come off the board in rounds two and three. #9 and a #2 and a #3 is greater than #4.
Detroit may be higher, but they are not necessarily in a better position. Teams want to move up to get a guy, and they typically do it by jumping to the team drafting immediately above that one.
In any event, as I've said on several occasions, Burrow is going 1 and Young going 2. I do not see Washington bypassing Young. That leaves two spots and two QBs in Tua and Herbert. Gettleman should be able to get a haul for Herbert in that situation. You're talking about a QB that - before the season - was in the discussion for the first pick overall. Both Houston and KC gave up a ton to move up and get Watson and Mahomes in 2017, though they were vaulting from the 20s to 10 and 12.
Teams trading into the top 5 should expect to pay a premium to get their QBs. Even if Gettleman only flip flops with Miami, let's say, history shows that he should be able to pick up two thirds in such a swap, a price Miami should easily pay if they want Herbert (or Tua) badly enough.
Miami knows there will be competition for Tua. They have the draft capital to get to #3 and then some. So it could be Miami moving up on draft day in a swap with Detroit to stymie any other Tua suitor that would try to leapfrog them. These guys aren't dumb.
This is a wait it out 'til draft day scenario. IMO, there will be a trade up for Tua, either to Detroit's spot or our spot. We won't know until Goodell announces a trade or a pick when Detroit is on the clock.
So we either get a good deal to move down, or we have our pick of one of several good options.
I agree. I watched a good portion of three of Lock's games and the arm talent continues to jump off the screen. They have nice set of young receivers and RBs (Sutton Lindsey, Fant) and an interesting OL (I loved Risner, the LG, in last year's draft). So the arrow seems to be pointing up on an offense that can grow together.
Now it's up to Lock to make the jump next year with the job firmly in his lap...
1. A trade partner.
2. An enticing offer from that partner that's worth leaving a player you covet sitting there at #4.
Beyond that, there almost has to be a perfect storm of things aligning for this to happen, including but not limiting to:
-a player that somebody covets dropping to that spot unexpectedly
-your board lining up as such that if you drop to say, #10 overall there will be multiple choices that you're confident will be there.
-Getting a 1st round pick in return. For me? If I'm expecting to move into the Top 5, I've got to consider that it's going to be a high price to pay. So conversely, to move out, that's what I want in return. You want your QB of the future? Well, you gotta pay for those.
-Timing. Teams are price checking well before the draft. The closer you get to the draft, including on draft day, the better the leverage you have as the team trying to trade down, because it's do or die time for the other teams trying to move up. But at the same time, a lot of deals probably fall apart during that fifteen minutes as well. It's a poker game.
These are just a few of the things that go into trading out of a pick. The talk around here is that it's easy peasy lemon squeezy. It's not.
Since 1990 there has only been one year where 3 QBs went in the top six picks (1999 when they went 1,2,3) and only one other year when 3 went in the top 7 (2018, when many here thought that 4 would go in the first 5 picks). There is nothing about this year's group to suggest 1,3, and 4 is likely. If the Lions trade out of No. 3, there is nothing to suggest whoever is left from 5,6,7 and 12 would want to "sell the farm" to move up, especially with the free agents available. And it's even less likely if it's the Dolphins who move up to 3 for Tua.
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But you need at least two things in alignment to make this happen from the jump:
1. A trade partner.
2. An enticing offer from that partner that's worth leaving a player you covet sitting there at #4.
Beyond that, there almost has to be a perfect storm of things aligning for this to happen, including but not limiting to:
-a player that somebody covets dropping to that spot unexpectedly
-your board lining up as such that if you drop to say, #10 overall there will be multiple choices that you're confident will be there.
-Getting a 1st round pick in return. For me? If I'm expecting to move into the Top 5, I've got to consider that it's going to be a high price to pay. So conversely, to move out, that's what I want in return. You want your QB of the future? Well, you gotta pay for those.
-Timing. Teams are price checking well before the draft. The closer you get to the draft, including on draft day, the better the leverage you have as the team trying to trade down, because it's do or die time for the other teams trying to move up. But at the same time, a lot of deals probably fall apart during that fifteen minutes as well. It's a poker game.
These are just a few of the things that go into trading out of a pick. The talk around here is that it's easy peasy lemon squeezy. It's not.
Since 1990 there has only been one year where 3 QBs went in the top six picks (1999 when they went 1,2,3) and only one other year when 3 went in the top 7 (2018, when many here thought that 4 would go in the first 5 picks). There is nothing about this year's group to suggest 1,3, and 4 is likely. If the Lions trade out of No. 3, there is nothing to suggest whoever is left from 5,6,7 and 12 would want to "sell the farm" to move up, especially with the free agents available. And it's even less likely if it's the Dolphins who move up to 3 for Tua.
First, this is a different era, where QBs are cost controlled now. Signing a FA QB means shelling out more money, and for most of these teams doesn't solve the problem of getting a sustainable solution at QB.
For example, the Bucs may sign Rivers, but how does that solve their QB problem long term? Carolina has no long term answer at QB. Heck, they don't have a short term answer at the position. Miami supposedly wanted to Tank for Tua, and now is in a position where they don't believe in Rosen and have only Fitzpatrick. The Chargers have no one, and even if they sign Brady, they need a guy to groom.
It's easy to say that the 2021 Draft has other QBs, and you can just tank for them. The Dolphins actively tried to tank and ended up with the 5th pick.
We discussed this last year. You have no idea what next year brings. Lawrence and Fields could get hurt. Or go back to school. Tua got hurt and now his draft stock is in flux. To make it worse, Lawrence and Fields are used often in their teams' running games. Their coaches subject them to unnecessary hits.
Point is, you just do not punt for the next year and assume you'll get a top guy next year. You can't. It may work out, but it may not. And how many teams will be tanking for Lawrence next year? Something tells me quite a few.
I'm guessing Washington and Detroit will be the two.