I know this is ground that has been previously covered on this board, but the 2019-2020 season provides additional evidence that it is unwise to invest a big portion of your cap on a particular running back, including the fact that:
1. The only top 10 paid running backs on the roster of a playoff team are Duke Johnson (marginal impact) and J McKinnon (has never played a down for SF). and
2. The lead Super Bowl backs — Raheem Mostert and Damien Williams) — are both undrafted. And their primary backups will be another undrafted player (M Breida) and a 6th round rookie (D Thompson).
Running back continues to be the far and away most injury prone position in the NFL (at least according to football outsiders). And over and over again, we see examples of the highly paid star RB going down, and the journeyman flourishing — see e.g. CJ Anderson tearing it up when Gurley got dinged last year, and Mosert running for 220 and 4 TDs when Coleman got hurt, etc.
Saquon is a spectacular running back, but it already puts us in a huge competitive disadvantage to pay him at his #2 draft spot when KC, GB, Seattle, SF etc are paying their RBs a fraction of that. It’s going to be a a big moment of truth for the Giants when it comes time to pay him like Zeke and Gurley ....
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threw 1/2 the amount of TD's compared to last year (50) and 1000 less yards.
Mahomes dislocated his knee and missed some time. That's part of it.
His best WR got injured.. His best RB had to be cut.. he was playing with scrubs this year compared to last.. and he missed time plus was injured.. anyhow who cares.. look at him now.. I'll take 25 TD if you are going to dominate the teams in the playoffs..
And what a dividend Bush paid over those four years:
484 yards rush per year; at < 4yds per carry
483 yards receiving per year; at < 8yds per catch
65 catches per year
Total rushing TDs over 4 years: 17; 4+ per year
Total receiving TDs over 4 years: 11, 3+ per year
In other words, not the best example of taking a RB high making sense...
7. J. McKinnon...8.5 million
10. M. Ingram....5.3 million
11. D. Lewis.......5.1 million
12. T. Coleman..4.9 million
13. J. White......4.9 million
15, D. Johnson..4.1 million
17. R. Burkhead..3.9 million
18. R. Mostert....3.2 million
49ers with three players in the top 20. Also consider the Titans have Dion Lewis along with the rookie contract of Alexander. The Patriots have S. Michel as a first rounder along with the 13th and 17th paid running back.
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threw 1/2 the amount of TD's compared to last year (50) and 1000 less yards.
Yardage makes sense if you factor in his injury. The TD count drop might also have something to do with the SoS, which was apparently much higher than last year. KC's points for dropped pretty significantly from 2018's 565 (1st overall in the NFL in points-for compared to 5th overall for 2019). His injury also impacted his ability to run longer than the time he missed.
Mahomes superficial fantasy stats might imply he regressed this season, but it’s a false conclusion.
Yes, he missed two and a half games, which hurt his end-season bottom line. His TD% dropped from over 8% last year (unsustainable) to 5.4% this year. TDs are somewhat random year to year, so the expected TD regression was the argument against over-drafting him in fantasy. His performance in 2018 amounted to an historically prolific season.
On a per-play basis, Patrick Mahomes was once again atop the league in production and efficiency. 8.3 yards per attempt was 4th in the league (he was 2nd in 2018 at 8.8 ypa) and his QBR was a 78.0 — behind only Lamar Jackson. Mahomes was tied for first in QBR in 2018 at 80.4.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm
Why the fewer TD passes? Well touchdowns are a volatile stat year-to-year, and factors such as game script, play-calling, and SoS are significant variables. It’s foolhardy to judge a player on his raw TD output given the volatility of these factors across a limited sample.
One obvious change from 2018 to 2019: the Chiefs defense improved dramatically. Ppg fell from 26.3 to 19.3. Just as their awful defense buoyed Mahomes cumulative passing stats last year (more shootouts / higher-scoring games) their defense this year generally suppressed the necessity to score & score quickly.
7. J. McKinnon...8.5 million
10. M. Ingram....5.3 million
11. D. Lewis.......5.1 million
12. T. Coleman..4.9 million
13. J. White......4.9 million
15, D. Johnson..4.1 million
17. R. Burkhead..3.9 million
18. R. Mostert....3.2 million
49ers with three players in the top 20. Also consider the Titans have Dion Lewis along with the rookie contract of Alexander. The Patriots have S. Michel as a first rounder along with the 13th and 17th paid running back.
You’re proving my point. This $3 million to $5 million range is reasonable. Saquon will cost $15 million in 2021. Roughly the cost of three Mark Ingrams. Good teams spread risk.
Let him throw a few option passes and this is a no-brainer as he will be a star at QB as well.
3 stars for one.
And the hits just keep on comin'...
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cap hit by rank for playoff teams.
7. J. McKinnon...8.5 million
10. M. Ingram....5.3 million
11. D. Lewis.......5.1 million
12. T. Coleman..4.9 million
13. J. White......4.9 million
15, D. Johnson..4.1 million
17. R. Burkhead..3.9 million
18. R. Mostert....3.2 million
49ers with three players in the top 20. Also consider the Titans have Dion Lewis along with the rookie contract of Alexander. The Patriots have S. Michel as a first rounder along with the 13th and 17th paid running back.
You’re proving my point. This $3 million to $5 million range is reasonable. Saquon will cost $15 million in 2021. Roughly the cost of three Mark Ingrams. Good teams spread risk.
It’s 2021. For your $15 million, do you want Saquon or the 2021 equivalent of Mark Ingram, Damien Williams, and ZaDarius Smith? Spread the risk, fill the gaps, please don’t give him $100 million.
Then you pay Barkley if he starts to crank out big numbers as he should be doing.
He is both a generational RB and also a generational WR.
TWO (2) generationals for the price of one.
10 clones of Saquon Barkley working together, led by their alpha, would be the best offense in the history of football.
is Saquon Barkley the best ~black~ running back in the game today ?
Then you pay Barkley if he starts to crank out big numbers as he should be doing.
It’s almost academic to argue otherwise because we all know the Giants are gonna give him his $15 million per year. Hopefully he beats the odds and plays up to it!
You can piece together an effective running game with a scheme and RBC. You can’t piece together a passing game (see Vikings). The best chance at winning a title is having a good passing game that gets you the lead and a good defense to allow you to run the clock.
A couple of teams have shown that you can piece together a passing game. Look at the Ravens and Tenn this year. Look at SF. They are all getting adequate play out of no name WR's. It has basically been a WR by committee for several teams this season. Include the Eagles and Pats in that group too.
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That the most efficient way to score points is by passing the football. All the numbers prove that.
You can piece together an effective running game with a scheme and RBC. You can’t piece together a passing game (see Vikings). The best chance at winning a title is having a good passing game that gets you the lead and a good defense to allow you to run the clock.
A couple of teams have shown that you can piece together a passing game. Look at the Ravens and Tenn this year. Look at SF. They are all getting adequate play out of no name WR's. It has basically been a WR by committee for several teams this season. Include the Eagles and Pats in that group too.
And what happened when it mattered for Ravens, Tenn, Philly, Pats and Vikings when they got behind two scores?
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In comment 14788338 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 14788258 Britt in VA said:
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The guys that have been airing it out for the last decade plus are all going to be gone in under five years.
Who is going to carry that passing league mantle moving forward? Mahomes and who else?
They ain't making them like that anymore and we might be seeing a resurgence coming in the run game. That could mean running QB's, too, but we could see an emphasis on ground attack either way.
If that happens, to me, it's valuable to have a guy that can rush for 1000 plus yards and 10 plus TD's on the ground, as well as catch nearly 100 passes.
Because there won’t be a QB as good as Mahomes it’s going to be a running league again? Probably not.
Lawrence, Fields next year. Sam Howell and Jayden Daniels in 2022. The pipeline of QBs is loaded. It’s a passing league for the forseable futur.
Yeah, just like 2018 was the greatest class since 2004. I'll believe it when I see it.
The spread offense has changed the NFL, especially the QB position. Now the NFL is adjusting.
Are we sure it’s adjusting? We just saw the Ravens and Titans lose because they fell behind and struggled to pass in their games. Well see what happens if San Fran falls behind by two scores next a Sunday.
SF is already 2-0 in such scenario this season.
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he is also a star WR. You are getting two star positions for the price of one --
He is both a generational RB and also a generational WR.
TWO (2) generationals for the price of one.
10 clones of Saquon Barkley working together, led by their alpha, would be the best offense in the history of football.
is Saquon Barkley the best ~black~ running back in the game today ?
While Shanahan hasn't typically drafted RB very high, you have to wonder if he hadn't gotten Jimmy G in trade how they would have finished 2017 season -- very likely a top 3 pick.
It wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility that he would have drafted him, and if he really is the greatest RB prospect, it could have been even scarier to watch the Niner running game.
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In comment 14788435 Britt in VA said:
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threw 1/2 the amount of TD's compared to last year (50) and 1000 less yards.
Yardage makes sense if you factor in his injury. The TD count drop might also have something to do with the SoS, which was apparently much higher than last year. KC's points for dropped pretty significantly from 2018's 565 (1st overall in the NFL in points-for compared to 5th overall for 2019). His injury also impacted his ability to run longer than the time he missed.
Mahomes superficial fantasy stats might imply he regressed this season, but it’s a false conclusion.
Yes, he missed two and a half games, which hurt his end-season bottom line. His TD% dropped from over 8% last year (unsustainable) to 5.4% this year. TDs are somewhat random year to year, so the expected TD regression was the argument against over-drafting him in fantasy. His performance in 2018 amounted to an historically prolific season.
On a per-play basis, Patrick Mahomes was once again atop the league in production and efficiency. 8.3 yards per attempt was 4th in the league (he was 2nd in 2018 at 8.8 ypa) and his QBR was a 78.0 — behind only Lamar Jackson. Mahomes was tied for first in QBR in 2018 at 80.4.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm
Why the fewer TD passes? Well touchdowns are a volatile stat year-to-year, and factors such as game script, play-calling, and SoS are significant variables. It’s foolhardy to judge a player on his raw TD output given the volatility of these factors across a limited sample.
One obvious change from 2018 to 2019: the Chiefs defense improved dramatically. Ppg fell from 26.3 to 19.3. Just as their awful defense buoyed Mahomes cumulative passing stats last year (more shootouts / higher-scoring games) their defense this year generally suppressed the necessity to score & score quickly.
Regressed? Who said anything about regressed? I hope our guy's regression has him playing in the Superbowl.
I just saw it as something that jumped out at me, and began to wonder why...
As I pointed out in my next post, passing TD's are down (big time) around the league. Aaron Rodgers only threw 25, and still they were 13-3 despite the fact that he was considered to be the biggest, most important part of their offense.
The bigger thing I took away was passing TD's being down league wide, not regression.
Paying any player is a risk. Paying a rb might be a little riskier but it also depends on the player. Are we playing a bulldozer type RB or a guy that knows how to protect himself?
This is, how do you say, confirmation bias at its best. Britt also nailed it when he said early in this thread that the nfl is cycling back to a league more dominant at the RB position. People went out of their way to say the league didn’t need bell cow backs anymore. Nope. There was just a drought at the position. Not anymore. And guess what, those stat RBs? They are all gonna get paid and some of them will earn every penny. Look ahead, based on today, don’t look at the nfl from 1-2-3 years ago and proclaim that the bell cow is dead. Anything but.
I look at the bottom line and games I watch with my eyes.
I'll admit that all of the metrics about yards traveled in the air, per attempt, etc... don't mean much to me. If that makes me less educated than your average fantasy player/data analyst, so be it.
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A lot of people have been hyper-focused on the RB position, mainly because they (not saying you) have never gotten over using the #2 overall on one.
But the truth is, you could do the same exercise for WR. I have yet to see that argument made here in the past couple of years, and it was kind of expected for Odell even for those that questioned whether he should still be here. I didn't like the guy all that much but definitely felt like he should be resigned, even for that monster deal.
Superstar players get paid. Yeah, RB's can be done by committee, but not many RB's can do what Saquon does. Which is gamechanging play. Kind of like Odell. He may be nonexistent for a while, but he/they can take it to the house at any moment.
WR by committee could be done as easily as RB by committee.
See contra the Steelers who didn’t pay LeVeon. And are likely gonna skip a miserable rebuild and get right back in the mix.
Really. And what if the Steelers still had bell this season? They very well make the playoffs.
Paying anyone is a risk. If the guy gets hurt, you’re fuct.
70-100 players on a team and comparing to NBA, it’s half the average salary per player.
Barley deserves what he reaps as a player. And he isn’t a basket case selfish ego maniac so I imagine that has to count
Paying anyone is a risk. If the guy gets hurt, you’re fuct.
)
According to over-the-cap, here are the # of top 10 paid players several positions on playoff teams:
And
QB: 5
RB: zero (unless you include McKinnon who hasn’t played in 2 years)
WR: 3
LT: 7
S: 6
Sounds like you are in favor of paying Saquon $15 million plus. Take a look at the NFL stats leaders at RB. It’s a wasteland for guys over 26. There are numerous pro bowl types at other positions in their late 20s and early 30s, but it’s a young man’s game at RB.
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Yea, no. I can easily swap out rb with any other position and make up a new narrative.
Paying anyone is a risk. If the guy gets hurt, you’re fuct.
)
According to over-the-cap, here are the # of top 10 paid players several positions on playoff teams:
And
QB: 5
RB: zero (unless you include McKinnon who hasn’t played in 2 years)
WR: 3
LT: 7
S: 6
Sounds like you are in favor of paying Saquon $15 million plus. Take a look at the NFL stats leaders at RB. It’s a wasteland for guys over 26. There are numerous pro bowl types at other positions in their late 20s and early 30s, but it’s a young man’s game at RB.
I’ll try to fill in the other positions later, but want to bet a beer that no other position has ZERO top 10 paid players in the playoffs?
1. Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.: $18 million
2. Raiders WR Antonio Brown: $16.7 million
3. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans: $16.5 million
4. Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins: $16.2 million
5. Rams WR Brandin Cooks: $16.2 million
6. Vikings WR Adam Thielen: $16.2 million
7. Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins: $16 million
8. Browns WR Jarvis Landry: $15.1 million
9. Bengals WR A.J. Green: $15 million
10. Packers WR Davante Adams: $14.5 million
So 3/10 were in the playoffs. Similar to the RB's if I recall correctly.
We can do this exercise with a lot of positions. Maybe they're just as fungible as RB's? Maybe we should go the Go Terps method and cut everybody before their second contract except offensive and defensive linemen if that's all that matters? Why stop at RB's?
Bro... you heard of Tyreek Hill?
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Yea, no. I can easily swap out rb with any other position and make up a new narrative.
Paying anyone is a risk. If the guy gets hurt, you’re fuct.
)
According to over-the-cap, here are the # of top 10 paid players several positions on playoff teams:
And
QB: 5
RB: zero (unless you include McKinnon who hasn’t played in 2 years)
WR: 3
LT: 7
S: 6
Sounds like you are in favor of paying Saquon $15 million plus. Take a look at the NFL stats leaders at RB. It’s a wasteland for guys over 26. There are numerous pro bowl types at other positions in their late 20s and early 30s, but it’s a young man’s game at RB.
And what is $15 million compared to what those other guys are getting on average?
As great as Mahomes is, well... We'll see.
When you've got a complete team playing complimentary football, you don't need to be Rodgers, Brees, or Mahomes to win one.
Because Brady and Eli fucking won basically all of the other ones. Your arguments are have more holes than swiss cheese. Seriously horrible.
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As great as Drew Brees is, he's only got one.
As great as Mahomes is, well... We'll see.
When you've got a complete team playing complimentary football, you don't need to be Rodgers, Brees, or Mahomes to win one.
Because Brady and Eli fucking won basically all of the other ones. Your arguments are have more holes than swiss cheese. Seriously horrible.
Eli Manning and Brady's team were playing complimentary football.
So were Wilson's with Lynch and the Legion of Boom.
Do you want to talk or do you want to insult my argument?
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In comment 14788875 djm said:
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Yea, no. I can easily swap out rb with any other position and make up a new narrative.
Paying anyone is a risk. If the guy gets hurt, you’re fuct.
)
According to over-the-cap, here are the # of top 10 paid players several positions on playoff teams:
And
QB: 5
RB: zero (unless you include McKinnon who hasn’t played in 2 years)
WR: 3
LT: 7
S: 6
Sounds like you are in favor of paying Saquon $15 million plus. Take a look at the NFL stats leaders at RB. It’s a wasteland for guys over 26. There are numerous pro bowl types at other positions in their late 20s and early 30s, but it’s a young man’s game at RB.
And what is $15 million compared to what those other guys are getting on average?
You have outlasted me and have won the debate. Hoping Saquon follows an Emmitt Smith trajectory and I’m dead wrong.
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In comment 14788405 Britt in VA said:
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As great as Drew Brees is, he's only got one.
As great as Mahomes is, well... We'll see.
When you've got a complete team playing complimentary football, you don't need to be Rodgers, Brees, or Mahomes to win one.
Because Brady and Eli fucking won basically all of the other ones. Your arguments are have more holes than swiss cheese. Seriously horrible.
Eli Manning and Brady's team were playing complimentary football.
So were Wilson's with Lynch and the Legion of Boom.
Do you want to talk or do you want to insult my argument?
Not in 2011.
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In comment 14788959 MM_in_NYC said:
Quote:
In comment 14788405 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
As great as Drew Brees is, he's only got one.
As great as Mahomes is, well... We'll see.
When you've got a complete team playing complimentary football, you don't need to be Rodgers, Brees, or Mahomes to win one.
Because Brady and Eli fucking won basically all of the other ones. Your arguments are have more holes than swiss cheese. Seriously horrible.
Eli Manning and Brady's team were playing complimentary football.
So were Wilson's with Lynch and the Legion of Boom.
Do you want to talk or do you want to insult my argument?
Not in 2011.
In the regular season? Yes. In the playoffs, the run game, o-line, and defense recovered for one last gasp.
But that's common, isn't it? Great regular season, but you need everybody (run game, defense, etc...) to step up in the playoffs? Even this year? I'd say so.
And the 2011 NYG still had a core of guys with pride that stepped up one last time.
Also, people are grouping Barkley in every the typical athlete at rb. Just like that line of thinking is unfair with the likes of Zeke Elliot it’s unfair here with Barkley. And you can apply that same logic with other insanely talented and athletic players at other positions.
It might be good to just wait and see how things shake out. The guy is a freak, Adrian Peterson type freak, the Vikings were wise to milk Peterson for all he was worth and the giants would be too.
Also, people are grouping Barkley in every the typical athlete at rb. Just like that line of thinking is unfair with the likes of Zeke Elliot it’s unfair here with Barkley. And you can apply that same logic with other insanely talented and athletic players at other positions.
It might be good to just wait and see how things shake out. The guy is a freak, Adrian Peterson type freak, the Vikings were wise to milk Peterson for all he was worth and the giants would be too.
A guy in this thread said he was Reggie Bush Part 2. Wake me up when Reggie Bush does this:
Link - ( New Window )
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In comment 14788405 Britt in VA said:
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As great as Drew Brees is, he's only got one.
As great as Mahomes is, well... We'll see.
When you've got a complete team playing complimentary football, you don't need to be Rodgers, Brees, or Mahomes to win one.
Because Brady and Eli fucking won basically all of the other ones. Your arguments are have more holes than swiss cheese. Seriously horrible.
Eli Manning and Brady's team were playing complimentary football.
So were Wilson's with Lynch and the Legion of Boom.
Do you want to talk or do you want to insult my argument?
I'm sorry to say but your arguments are so weak as to not deserve serious contemplation. And further you incorrectly cite statistics as you did by omitting Tyreek Hill in order to prop them up. He's at $18 million per and playing next week in the Super Bowl and would have been at the top of your list -- and would have completely upended your argument on WRs. You then actually said above you thought Mahomes was the only "new" QB who could put up substantial numbers in the new class of up and coming QBs -- although I'm sure you'll find some angle to dispute that characterization. As if Jackson, Wentz, Watson, Prescott, Allen in addition to Mahomes didn't exist, as if Murray and Jones didn't show tremendous promise, and as if Wilson and Stafford (who was on pace for 38 before getting injured this year) weren't still playing. As if Burrow and Lawrence were coming up in the next two drafts. Amongst others.
Complimentary football? To be clear, are you diminishing Eli's importance and play? If so, I'm sure this board would like to hear you expand on how you don't believe he was instrumental to our wins and how the team won in spite of him. I bet that will get you a lot of support.
No, ultimately your arguments seem to be solely manufactured to support a pro-Saquon opinion that at its core refuses to consider whether that was a bad choice and as such must seek to rationalize it by downplaying the importance of other options for team building. It's not one I find discussing further.
maybe that's what you think serious contemplation is, i don't
[quote] . [/quote
lol
you just did diminish his play. maybe you're so old you can't remember what you posted 10 minutes ago
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That's posters like you's job, because you're too young to remember the good Eli years.
you just did diminish his play. maybe you're so old you can't remember what you posted 10 minutes ago
Ha, okay. Playing complimentary football isn't an insult.
Hill just signed a new contract and in 2020 - that's next year for those great at contract numbers and shitty at the year they are applied in.
This year his cap hit was 2.19M
Google is your friend - use it - ( New Window )
His cap hit in 2019 was 67th among WR's.
Is that possibly the reason he wasn't on Britt's list?
Scroll down - WAY DOWN - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
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In comment 14788528 jcn56 said:
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In comment 14788435 Britt in VA said:
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threw 1/2 the amount of TD's compared to last year (50) and 1000 less yards.
Yardage makes sense if you factor in his injury. The TD count drop might also have something to do with the SoS, which was apparently much higher than last year. KC's points for dropped pretty significantly from 2018's 565 (1st overall in the NFL in points-for compared to 5th overall for 2019). His injury also impacted his ability to run longer than the time he missed.
Mahomes superficial fantasy stats might imply he regressed this season, but it’s a false conclusion.
Yes, he missed two and a half games, which hurt his end-season bottom line. His TD% dropped from over 8% last year (unsustainable) to 5.4% this year. TDs are somewhat random year to year, so the expected TD regression was the argument against over-drafting him in fantasy. His performance in 2018 amounted to an historically prolific season.
On a per-play basis, Patrick Mahomes was once again atop the league in production and efficiency. 8.3 yards per attempt was 4th in the league (he was 2nd in 2018 at 8.8 ypa) and his QBR was a 78.0 — behind only Lamar Jackson. Mahomes was tied for first in QBR in 2018 at 80.4.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm
Why the fewer TD passes? Well touchdowns are a volatile stat year-to-year, and factors such as game script, play-calling, and SoS are significant variables. It’s foolhardy to judge a player on his raw TD output given the volatility of these factors across a limited sample.
One obvious change from 2018 to 2019: the Chiefs defense improved dramatically. Ppg fell from 26.3 to 19.3. Just as their awful defense buoyed Mahomes cumulative passing stats last year (more shootouts / higher-scoring games) their defense this year generally suppressed the necessity to score & score quickly.
Regressed? Who said anything about regressed? I hope our guy's regression has him playing in the Superbowl.
I just saw it as something that jumped out at me, and began to wonder why...
As I pointed out in my next post, passing TD's are down (big time) around the league. Aaron Rodgers only threw 25, and still they were 13-3 despite the fact that he was considered to be the biggest, most important part of their offense.
The bigger thing I took away was passing TD's being down league wide, not regression.
To answer your question in simple terms: variance.
Compared to 2018, which was headlined by Mahomes historic season, passing touchdowns decreased.
But not by much.
There were 847 touchdown passes in 2018, and that number dipped to “only” 797 this season, which is still one of highest totals in the history of the league.
2019: 797
2018: 847
2017: 741
2016: 786
2015: 842
2014: 807
2013: 804
2012: 757
2011: 745
2010: 751
2009: 710
2008: 646
2007: 720
2006: 648
2005; 644
2004: 732
2003: 654
2002: 694
2001: 634
2000: 635
1.65% of passes in ‘18 resulted in touchdown, whereas 1.56% of passes in ‘19 resulted in a touchdown.
The obvious conclusion here: variance. Complex factors contribute to this variance: game script, strength of schedule, play-calling, individual performance, quality of teammates.
With regard to Mahomes and Rodgers, both played on strong defensive teams, which necessitated less aggressive passing tendencies.
The key difference, as I demonstrated above, Mahomes performed like a superstar QB on a play-to-play basis, despite his surface TD total. Rodgers did not — he was closer to Eli in ‘16. The Packers were 9-1 in one-score games; their Pythagorean win total was 9.6. They were lucky to finish 13-3 and stand out as a glaring regression candidate next season.
Touchdowns represent a very small sample of plays. To focus on the “bottom line” and examine raw TD passes means that you are evaluating a QB on only 5-8% of his throws. That’s why the per-play stats, or efficiency metrics, have gained so much credence in the broader view of QB analysis — they offer a much larger sample along with more stable year-to-year stickiness.
Touchdowns are volatile. All touchdowns.
Since this is a thread about Saquon Barkley, it’s worth noting that there were 447 rushing TDs scored this season.
(2019-2000)
447
439
380
443
365
380
410
401
400
399
429
476
386
424
431
416
427
460
365
412
The highest since 2008. But, take a step back and understand that 0.87% of plays this season resulted in a rushing touchdown. So although the raw TD total was high, once again we are looking at a limited snap shot. And the same volatility year-to-year.
Does this indicate a possible return of run-dominant offenses? Hard to say — it’s only a small part of only one season. We should continue to see a healthy amount of TDs scored on the ground. The proliferation of athletic QBs certainly contribute to the raw total. Analytical play-calling favors running the ball in short-yardage (it’s a higher-percentage play). Just like the discussion of passing TDs above, the underlying causes are multi-factorial.
We should also continue see a healthy amount of scoring in general: teams averaged 23.3 ppg in 2018 and 22.8 in 2019. The 2nd and 3rd highest scoring seasons ever.
But ...Saquon?
Threads like this amuse the Thrill Ride. Saquon Barkley is already on our team; we can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Where he was picked is immaterial.
And yet, rather incredibly, both the critics and the supporters of the pick itself have “won” while simultaneously losing. At times, he’s a marvelous player with a superhuman highlight reel — gold jacket caliber, perhaps. The Giants are 9-23 with him on the team — that’s an ugly bottom line.
Somehow the conversation has mutated into a clumsy debate over running vs. passing. Here’s the secret: you want to move the ball efficiently. You don’t need to pick a side; how about we build a program that can accomplish both things efficiently depending on the opponent and the game situation?
Saquon can be apart of that, at least temporarily. Although he’s not a superstar receiver as gidiefor ham-fistedly asserted — most impact WR have a higher average depth of target than ::checks notes:: 0.7 yards (!!) — he can affect the game as a pass-catcher. He’s getting paid, but his contract isn’t crippling.
However, even Saquon’s biggest fans have to admit that the calculus changes as he gets older, accumulates more injuries, and his second-contract mega-extension looms. The Rams and Cowboys will offer us a preview of how our team-building strategy can succeed/fail subsequent to the RB mega-deal.
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I'm sorry to say but your arguments are so weak as to not deserve serious contemplation. And further you incorrectly cite statistics as you did by omitting Tyreek Hill in order to prop them up. He's at $18 million per and playing next week in the Super Bowl and would have been at the top of your list -- and would have completely upended your argument on WRs.
Hill just signed a new contract and in 2020 - that's next year for those great at contract numbers and shitty at the year they are applied in.
This year his cap hit was 2.19M Google is your friend - use it - ( New Window )
Hill has certainly been a bargain for them.
There is a valid larger point that the Chiefs has invested a lot in their passing game.
Sammy Watkins (rather unbelievably) was the 7th highest paid WR in 2019, per Brit’s link.
[for those who don’t know, Sammy Watkins also presently plays for the Chiefs.
Their starting OTs, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, both earn over $11M annually.
Travis Kelce is the second-highest paid TE in football.
Mahomes rookie deal casts him as a bargain according to salary, though the team traded significant assets to get him — two 1st rd picks.
Link - ( New Window )
The most common formula for winning a game is the throw effectively to get the lead, and to run effectively to hold it and close the game out.
And how do you build a team capable of both passing and throwing? What position groups are common to both those activities? The answer is obvious. And that is where teams should be investing resources. (By the way QBs are involved in the running game as well, audibling plays, running options, calling out defenders and protections etc...)
Did Barkley leave yards on the field this year? Yes! He needs to be more decisive here on out, OL needs to get better of course, get more tough yards to keep the D honest on him. The talent and drive is there ... he had an injury and some good learning lumps, he'll be fine.