I know this is ground that has been previously covered on this board, but the 2019-2020 season provides additional evidence that it is unwise to invest a big portion of your cap on a particular running back, including the fact that:
1. The only top 10 paid running backs on the roster of a playoff team are Duke Johnson (marginal impact) and J McKinnon (has never played a down for SF). and
2. The lead Super Bowl backs — Raheem Mostert and Damien Williams) — are both undrafted. And their primary backups will be another undrafted player (M Breida) and a 6th round rookie (D Thompson).
Running back continues to be the far and away most injury prone position in the NFL (at least according to football outsiders). And over and over again, we see examples of the highly paid star RB going down, and the journeyman flourishing — see e.g. CJ Anderson tearing it up when Gurley got dinged last year, and Mosert running for 220 and 4 TDs when Coleman got hurt, etc.
Saquon is a spectacular running back, but it already puts us in a huge competitive disadvantage to pay him at his #2 draft spot when KC, GB, Seattle, SF etc are paying their RBs a fraction of that. It’s going to be a a big moment of truth for the Giants when it comes time to pay him like Zeke and Gurley ....
Saquon is great, but he’s making as much as Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry ... combined.
It’s interesting to look to see where the playoff teams have invested money ... 7 of the top 10 highest paid safeties are on playoff teams for example.
Who is going to carry that passing league mantle moving forward? Mahomes and who else?
They ain't making them like that anymore and we might be seeing a resurgence coming in the run game. That could mean running QB's, too, but we could see an emphasis on ground attack either way.
If that happens, to me, it's valuable to have a guy that can rush for 1000 plus yards and 10 plus TD's on the ground, as well as catch nearly 100 passes.
I mean, at the time, nobody was complaining about paying Beckham 90 million, and Saquon won't even get 2/3 of that. Is Beckham's impact on winning or longevity any more relevant than Saquon's?
53 Gurley Michel
52 Blount White
51 Freeman Blount
50 Stewart CJ Anderson
49 Lynch Blount
48 Lynch Moreno
47 Rice Gore
46 Bradshaw Green-Ellis
Whether it's a WR or a RB. It's hypocritical to hyperfocus on the RB position while giving a pass to the WR position.
And before you start in on the longevity thing, one of the things about the superstar players, regardless of whether they are a RB or a WR, they tend to have long careers.
Larry Fitzgerals AND Adrian Peterson are still playing and contributing to their teams, all these years later.
Superstars defy the averages. Both in output and longevity. They'll know how healthy Saquon is or isn't in year 5 before they pay him. It won't be much different than paying Beckham, who had just as much wear and tear on him.
Explain to me why you wouldn't give Saquon a second contract but you would give Beckham one?
1. Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.: $18 million
2. Raiders WR Antonio Brown: $16.7 million
3. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans: $16.5 million
4. Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins: $16.2 million
5. Rams WR Brandin Cooks: $16.2 million
6. Vikings WR Adam Thielen: $16.2 million
7. Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins: $16 million
8. Browns WR Jarvis Landry: $15.1 million
9. Bengals WR A.J. Green: $15 million
10. Packers WR Davante Adams: $14.5 million
So 3/10 were in the playoffs. Similar to the RB's if I recall correctly.
We can do this exercise with a lot of positions. Maybe they're just as fungible as RB's? Maybe we should go the Go Terps method and cut everybody before their second contract except offensive and defensive linemen if that's all that matters? Why stop at RB's?
You could argue that we spend premium for him when we cannot run the football (poor blocking); however, when we improve the blocking, running back by committee is more effective and injury avoidant. At some point we need to assign win value to Barkley for salary. In key games with big competitors, he is not much of a difference beyond some outlier runs. He can't run between tackles either. A fan of Saquon, just think he is on the wrong team right now.
Whether it's a WR or a RB. It's hypocritical to hyperfocus on the RB position while giving a pass to the WR position.
And before you start in on the longevity thing, one of the things about the superstar players, regardless of whether they are a RB or a WR, they tend to have long careers.
Larry Fitzgerals AND Adrian Peterson are still playing and contributing to their teams, all these years later.
Superstars defy the averages. Both in output and longevity. They'll know how healthy Saquon is or isn't in year 5 before they pay him. It won't be much different than paying Beckham, who had just as much wear and tear on him.
Explain to me why you wouldn't give Saquon a second contract but you would give Beckham one?
Top WRs can perform at an elite level throughout their second contract - some even into the early part of their third. Very few RBs can play at the same level in their late 20s as they did in their first 3 or 4 seasons.
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If they are producing yards and TD's for your offense they are valuable.
Whether it's a WR or a RB. It's hypocritical to hyperfocus on the RB position while giving a pass to the WR position.
And before you start in on the longevity thing, one of the things about the superstar players, regardless of whether they are a RB or a WR, they tend to have long careers.
Larry Fitzgerals AND Adrian Peterson are still playing and contributing to their teams, all these years later.
Superstars defy the averages. Both in output and longevity. They'll know how healthy Saquon is or isn't in year 5 before they pay him. It won't be much different than paying Beckham, who had just as much wear and tear on him.
Explain to me why you wouldn't give Saquon a second contract but you would give Beckham one?
Top WRs can perform at an elite level throughout their second contract - some even into the early part of their third. Very few RBs can play at the same level in their late 20s as they did in their first 3 or 4 seasons.
Yeah? I guess nobody told that to Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, or Odell Beckham I guess.
1. Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.: $18 million
2. Raiders WR Antonio Brown: $16.7 million
3. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans: $16.5 million
4. Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins: $16.2 million
5. Rams WR Brandin Cooks: $16.2 million
6. Vikings WR Adam Thielen: $16.2 million
7. Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins: $16 million
8. Browns WR Jarvis Landry: $15.1 million
9. Bengals WR A.J. Green: $15 million
10. Packers WR Davante Adams: $14.5 million
So 3/10 were in the playoffs. Similar to the RB's if I recall correctly.
We can do this exercise with a lot of positions. Maybe they're just as fungible as RB's? Maybe we should go the Go Terps method and cut everybody before their second contract except offensive and defensive linemen if that's all that matters? Why stop at RB's?
This is great research. And likely points to a conclusion that it’s not wise to pay WRs at $15 million plus either. I wasn’t being “hypocritical” in not extending my argument to WRs ... we don’t currently have a superstar WR who is going to break the bank, but we are in that position with Saquon. It’s a lot like what the Steelers faced with LeVeon Bell. They have to feel like they dodged a bullet on that one.
That all said, you’re right, if Saquon can beat the odds (RB is the no. 1 most injured position) and be great for the next 5-6 years, sign him. But he’d have to be a serious outlier.
Who is going to carry that passing league mantle moving forward? Mahomes and who else?
They ain't making them like that anymore and we might be seeing a resurgence coming in the run game. That could mean running QB's, too, but we could see an emphasis on ground attack either way.
If that happens, to me, it's valuable to have a guy that can rush for 1000 plus yards and 10 plus TD's on the ground, as well as catch nearly 100 passes.
Because there won’t be a QB as good as Mahomes it’s going to be a running league again? Probably not.
Lawrence, Fields next year. Sam Howell and Jayden Daniels in 2022. The pipeline of QBs is loaded. It’s a passing league for the forseable futur.
But the truth is, you could do the same exercise for WR. I have yet to see that argument made here in the past couple of years, and it was kind of expected for Odell even for those that questioned whether he should still be here. I didn't like the guy all that much but definitely felt like he should be resigned, even for that monster deal.
Superstar players get paid. Yeah, RB's can be done by committee, but not many RB's can do what Saquon does. Which is gamechanging play. Kind of like Odell. He may be nonexistent for a while, but he/they can take it to the house at any moment.
WR by committee could be done as easily as RB by committee.
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The guys that have been airing it out for the last decade plus are all going to be gone in under five years.
Who is going to carry that passing league mantle moving forward? Mahomes and who else?
They ain't making them like that anymore and we might be seeing a resurgence coming in the run game. That could mean running QB's, too, but we could see an emphasis on ground attack either way.
If that happens, to me, it's valuable to have a guy that can rush for 1000 plus yards and 10 plus TD's on the ground, as well as catch nearly 100 passes.
Because there won’t be a QB as good as Mahomes it’s going to be a running league again? Probably not.
Lawrence, Fields next year. Sam Howell and Jayden Daniels in 2022. The pipeline of QBs is loaded. It’s a passing league for the forseable futur.
Yeah, just like 2018 was the greatest class since 2004. I'll believe it when I see it.
The spread offense has changed the NFL, especially the QB position. Now the NFL is adjusting.
But the truth is, you could do the same exercise for WR. I have yet to see that argument made here in the past couple of years, and it was kind of expected for Odell even for those that questioned whether he should still be here. I didn't like the guy all that much but definitely felt like he should be resigned, even for that monster deal.
Superstar players get paid. Yeah, RB's can be done by committee, but not many RB's can do what Saquon does. Which is gamechanging play. Kind of like Odell. He may be nonexistent for a while, but he/they can take it to the house at any moment.
WR by committee could be done as easily as RB by committee.
I think that’s two separate arguments.
Whether you can win with high paid WR (which you can do for any position and come up with a similar conclusion). The best chance for sustained success is a balanced positional spending but also a lot harder to achieve.
and
Is it worth paying big money and long term deal to a position that has such a short shelf life.
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In comment 14788258 Britt in VA said:
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The guys that have been airing it out for the last decade plus are all going to be gone in under five years.
Who is going to carry that passing league mantle moving forward? Mahomes and who else?
They ain't making them like that anymore and we might be seeing a resurgence coming in the run game. That could mean running QB's, too, but we could see an emphasis on ground attack either way.
If that happens, to me, it's valuable to have a guy that can rush for 1000 plus yards and 10 plus TD's on the ground, as well as catch nearly 100 passes.
Because there won’t be a QB as good as Mahomes it’s going to be a running league again? Probably not.
Lawrence, Fields next year. Sam Howell and Jayden Daniels in 2022. The pipeline of QBs is loaded. It’s a passing league for the forseable futur.
Yeah, just like 2018 was the greatest class since 2004. I'll believe it when I see it.
The spread offense has changed the NFL, especially the QB position. Now the NFL is adjusting.
Are we sure it’s adjusting? We just saw the Ravens and Titans lose because they fell behind and struggled to pass in their games. Well see what happens if San Fran falls behind by two scores next a Sunday.
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A lot of people have been hyper-focused on the RB position, mainly because they (not saying you) have never gotten over using the #2 overall on one.
But the truth is, you could do the same exercise for WR. I have yet to see that argument made here in the past couple of years, and it was kind of expected for Odell even for those that questioned whether he should still be here. I didn't like the guy all that much but definitely felt like he should be resigned, even for that monster deal.
Superstar players get paid. Yeah, RB's can be done by committee, but not many RB's can do what Saquon does. Which is gamechanging play. Kind of like Odell. He may be nonexistent for a while, but he/they can take it to the house at any moment.
WR by committee could be done as easily as RB by committee.
I think that’s two separate arguments.
Whether you can win with high paid WR (which you can do for any position and come up with a similar conclusion). The best chance for sustained success is a balanced positional spending but also a lot harder to achieve.
and
Is it worth paying big money and long term deal to a position that has such a short shelf life.
It's mildly anecdoatal, but the best 5 WR's to wear Giants blue and be worthy of second contracts, had careers shortened or were slowed down by injury.
Steve Smith
Hakeem Nicks
Victor Cruz
Mario Manningham
Odell Beckham (jury is still out but I've seen it stated a million times on this board that he's lost a step).
So maybe the numbers when broken down to a pool of over 1000 players say there's some percentage that says RB's have shorter careers, but RIGHT HERE in New York over the past decade that's 5 WR's worthy of second contracts that did too.
Isn't the average career of an NFL player (all players) like 3 years?
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In comment 14788283 Britt in VA said:
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If they are producing yards and TD's for your offense they are valuable.
Whether it's a WR or a RB. It's hypocritical to hyperfocus on the RB position while giving a pass to the WR position.
And before you start in on the longevity thing, one of the things about the superstar players, regardless of whether they are a RB or a WR, they tend to have long careers.
Larry Fitzgerals AND Adrian Peterson are still playing and contributing to their teams, all these years later.
Superstars defy the averages. Both in output and longevity. They'll know how healthy Saquon is or isn't in year 5 before they pay him. It won't be much different than paying Beckham, who had just as much wear and tear on him.
Explain to me why you wouldn't give Saquon a second contract but you would give Beckham one?
Top WRs can perform at an elite level throughout their second contract - some even into the early part of their third. Very few RBs can play at the same level in their late 20s as they did in their first 3 or 4 seasons.
Yeah? I guess nobody told that to Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, or Odell Beckham I guess.
Just pulling out a few exceptions does absolutely nothing to prove your point. There are exceptions to every rule. Most good RBs peak during their 1st contract while most good WRs can produce at peak levels well into their late 20s.
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In comment 14788258 Britt in VA said:
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The guys that have been airing it out for the last decade plus are all going to be gone in under five years.
Who is going to carry that passing league mantle moving forward? Mahomes and who else?
They ain't making them like that anymore and we might be seeing a resurgence coming in the run game. That could mean running QB's, too, but we could see an emphasis on ground attack either way.
If that happens, to me, it's valuable to have a guy that can rush for 1000 plus yards and 10 plus TD's on the ground, as well as catch nearly 100 passes.
Because there won’t be a QB as good as Mahomes it’s going to be a running league again? Probably not.
Lawrence, Fields next year. Sam Howell and Jayden Daniels in 2022. The pipeline of QBs is loaded. It’s a passing league for the forseable futur.
Yeah, just like 2018 was the greatest class since 2004. I'll believe it when I see it.
The spread offense has changed the NFL, especially the QB position. Now the NFL is adjusting.
Things don't change overnight. Just like we didn't evolve into the scorgasm league overnight.
Who is going to carry that passing league mantle moving forward? Mahomes and who else?
They ain't making them like that anymore and we might be seeing a resurgence coming in the run game. That could mean running QB's, too, but we could see an emphasis on ground attack either way.
If that happens, to me, it's valuable to have a guy that can rush for 1000 plus yards and 10 plus TD's on the ground, as well as catch nearly 100 passes.
The Giants just spent the 6th overall pick on a guy they're hoping will be part of that 'who else'.
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The guys that have been airing it out for the last decade plus are all going to be gone in under five years.
Who is going to carry that passing league mantle moving forward? Mahomes and who else?
They ain't making them like that anymore and we might be seeing a resurgence coming in the run game. That could mean running QB's, too, but we could see an emphasis on ground attack either way.
If that happens, to me, it's valuable to have a guy that can rush for 1000 plus yards and 10 plus TD's on the ground, as well as catch nearly 100 passes.
The Giants just spent the 6th overall pick on a guy they're hoping will be part of that 'who else'.
A strong running game takes the pressure off guys to the "who else" and just let's them be good quarterbacks. See Jimmy G.
As great as Mahomes is, well... We'll see.
When you've got a complete team playing complimentary football, you don't need to be Rodgers, Brees, or Mahomes to win one.
And while nobody hits the jackpot with every decision, this team needs far less negative ones. And this one would be a whopper...
A strong running game takes the pressure off guys to the "who else" and just let's them be good quarterbacks. See Jimmy G.
I would think the 49ers had higher expectations of JG given the salary they threw his way. They do take the ball out of his hands, but they haven't exactly needed to be any more aggressive thanks to their defense.
This SB should go a long way on this debate, because it could come down to which of the two teams has the better QB.
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A strong running game takes the pressure off guys to the "who else" and just let's them be good quarterbacks. See Jimmy G.
I would think the 49ers had higher expectations of JG given the salary they threw his way. They do take the ball out of his hands, but they haven't exactly needed to be any more aggressive thanks to their defense.
This SB should go a long way on this debate, because it could come down to which of the two teams has the better QB.
I guess.
Is Aaron Rodgers any less prolific of a passer than Patrick Mahomes? That's the first thing that came to my mind when I thought of your statement about the Superbowl.
That prompted me to look at Rodgers stats to see what they were for this season. I was genuinely (literally) shocked to see that Rodgers had thrown for only 4000 yards, 26 TD's, and 4 INT's. I thought, well, I can't make that argument then... Surely Mahomes blew that out of the water. Well, I was genuinely surprised again to see that Mahomes himself was almost identical. 4000 yards in change, 26 TD's, 5 INT's.
Why are those numbers down? Genuine question. Secondly, why would the Superbowl go a long way in deciding anything vs. the NFC Championship deciding anything (which I have not claimed).
The outliers were always teams that people figured had "game managers" at QB, teams that were all around good enough and had QBs that weren't a huge liability. And in many cases those teams were good to rack up a lot of wins but never quite get over the hump.
Jackson 36
Winston 34
Wilson 31
Prescott 30
As compared to 9 last season.
Mahomes 50
Luck 39
Ryan 35
Roethlisberger 34
Goff 32
Rivers 32
Brees 32
Cousins 30
That's a dramatic drop, no?
You can piece together an effective running game with a scheme and RBC. You can’t piece together a passing game (see Vikings). The best chance at winning a title is having a good passing game that gets you the lead and a good defense to allow you to run the clock.
But the truth is, you could do the same exercise for WR. I have yet to see that argument made here in the past couple of years, and it was kind of expected for Odell even for those that questioned whether he should still be here. I didn't like the guy all that much but definitely felt like he should be resigned, even for that monster deal.
Superstar players get paid. Yeah, RB's can be done by committee, but not many RB's can do what Saquon does. Which is gamechanging play. Kind of like Odell. He may be nonexistent for a while, but he/they can take it to the house at any moment.
WR by committee could be done as easily as RB by committee.
See contra the Steelers who didn’t pay LeVeon. And are likely gonna skip a miserable rebuild and get right back in the mix.
And when you have a potential Brown and Sayers wrapped into one, you’re damn right you pay him. What an advantage down the road for Jones to have with a HEALTHY SB, a threat to break it in the run or pass game on any touch..
Would a better role for him be as a “super 3rd down back”, a rich man’s Percy Harvin, where you get him the ball frequently out in space via short passes?
Because as Britt points out, and I agree to a large extent, paying top dollars for a RB and WR is not cost-effective.
Quit drinking the koolaid. He runs the route tree like a RB, can't run between the tackles and does not pass block. We drafted an all world RB at 2 that does not like contact. He is Reggie Bush II - the sequel. He is a third down back. Giants still have to find a short yardage RB to Saquons job.
Saquon yards per rush
From shotgun 5.4
Snap under center 4.0
So we have a HB who is more comfortable in a shotgun set than in a traditional formation.
52 last season despite missing however many games.
He's a versatile weapon.
Because as Britt points out, and I agree to a large extent, paying top dollars for a RB and WR is not cost-effective.
In a world where Mostert is on his 7th team, and had a career 300 yards rushing going into this year at age 27, and has just exploded for 1,000 yards (regular season and playoffs) at nearly 6.0 yards a carry, and just had maybe the greatest individual game by a RB in NFL history ... it’s insane to pay a RB $15 million per year. Let’s start acting like the smart teams already. Maybe take a look at Steelers with Bell and the Patriots with Cook.