I know this is ground that has been previously covered on this board, but the 2019-2020 season provides additional evidence that it is unwise to invest a big portion of your cap on a particular running back, including the fact that:
1. The only top 10 paid running backs on the roster of a playoff team are Duke Johnson (marginal impact) and J McKinnon (has never played a down for SF). and
2. The lead Super Bowl backs — Raheem Mostert and Damien Williams) — are both undrafted. And their primary backups will be another undrafted player (M Breida) and a 6th round rookie (D Thompson).
Running back continues to be the far and away most injury prone position in the NFL (at least according to football outsiders). And over and over again, we see examples of the highly paid star RB going down, and the journeyman flourishing — see e.g. CJ Anderson tearing it up when Gurley got dinged last year, and Mosert running for 220 and 4 TDs when Coleman got hurt, etc.
Saquon is a spectacular running back, but it already puts us in a huge competitive disadvantage to pay him at his #2 draft spot when KC, GB, Seattle, SF etc are paying their RBs a fraction of that. It’s going to be a a big moment of truth for the Giants when it comes time to pay him like Zeke and Gurley ....
His cap hit in 2019 was 67th among WR's.
Is that possibly the reason he wasn't on Britt's list?
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In comment 14788528 jcn56 said:
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In comment 14788435 Britt in VA said:
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threw 1/2 the amount of TD's compared to last year (50) and 1000 less yards.
Yardage makes sense if you factor in his injury. The TD count drop might also have something to do with the SoS, which was apparently much higher than last year. KC's points for dropped pretty significantly from 2018's 565 (1st overall in the NFL in points-for compared to 5th overall for 2019). His injury also impacted his ability to run longer than the time he missed.
Mahomes superficial fantasy stats might imply he regressed this season, but it’s a false conclusion.
Yes, he missed two and a half games, which hurt his end-season bottom line. His TD% dropped from over 8% last year (unsustainable) to 5.4% this year. TDs are somewhat random year to year, so the expected TD regression was the argument against over-drafting him in fantasy. His performance in 2018 amounted to an historically prolific season.
On a per-play basis, Patrick Mahomes was once again atop the league in production and efficiency. 8.3 yards per attempt was 4th in the league (he was 2nd in 2018 at 8.8 ypa) and his QBR was a 78.0 — behind only Lamar Jackson. Mahomes was tied for first in QBR in 2018 at 80.4.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm
Why the fewer TD passes? Well touchdowns are a volatile stat year-to-year, and factors such as game script, play-calling, and SoS are significant variables. It’s foolhardy to judge a player on his raw TD output given the volatility of these factors across a limited sample.
One obvious change from 2018 to 2019: the Chiefs defense improved dramatically. Ppg fell from 26.3 to 19.3. Just as their awful defense buoyed Mahomes cumulative passing stats last year (more shootouts / higher-scoring games) their defense this year generally suppressed the necessity to score & score quickly.
Regressed? Who said anything about regressed? I hope our guy's regression has him playing in the Superbowl.
I just saw it as something that jumped out at me, and began to wonder why...
As I pointed out in my next post, passing TD's are down (big time) around the league. Aaron Rodgers only threw 25, and still they were 13-3 despite the fact that he was considered to be the biggest, most important part of their offense.
The bigger thing I took away was passing TD's being down league wide, not regression.
To answer your question in simple terms: variance.
Compared to 2018, which was headlined by Mahomes historic season, passing touchdowns decreased.
But not by much.
There were 847 touchdown passes in 2018, and that number dipped to “only” 797 this season, which is still one of highest totals in the history of the league.
2019: 797
2018: 847
2017: 741
2016: 786
2015: 842
2014: 807
2013: 804
2012: 757
2011: 745
2010: 751
2009: 710
2008: 646
2007: 720
2006: 648
2005; 644
2004: 732
2003: 654
2002: 694
2001: 634
2000: 635
1.65% of passes in ‘18 resulted in touchdown, whereas 1.56% of passes in ‘19 resulted in a touchdown.
The obvious conclusion here: variance. Complex factors contribute to this variance: game script, strength of schedule, play-calling, individual performance, quality of teammates.
With regard to Mahomes and Rodgers, both played on strong defensive teams, which necessitated less aggressive passing tendencies.
The key difference, as I demonstrated above, Mahomes performed like a superstar QB on a play-to-play basis, despite his surface TD total. Rodgers did not — he was closer to Eli in ‘16. The Packers were 9-1 in one-score games; their Pythagorean win total was 9.6. They were lucky to finish 13-3 and stand out as a glaring regression candidate next season.
Touchdowns represent a very small sample of plays. To focus on the “bottom line” and examine raw TD passes means that you are evaluating a QB on only 5-8% of his throws. That’s why the per-play stats, or efficiency metrics, have gained so much credence in the broader view of QB analysis — they offer a much larger sample along with more stable year-to-year stickiness.
Touchdowns are volatile. All touchdowns.
Since this is a thread about Saquon Barkley, it’s worth noting that there were 447 rushing TDs scored this season.
(2019-2000)
447
439
380
443
365
380
410
401
400
399
429
476
386
424
431
416
427
460
365
412
The highest since 2008. But, take a step back and understand that 0.87% of plays this season resulted in a rushing touchdown. So although the raw TD total was high, once again we are looking at a limited snap shot. And the same volatility year-to-year.
Does this indicate a possible return of run-dominant offenses? Hard to say — it’s only a small part of only one season. We should continue to see a healthy amount of TDs scored on the ground. The proliferation of athletic QBs certainly contribute to the raw total. Analytical play-calling favors running the ball in short-yardage (it’s a higher-percentage play). Just like the discussion of passing TDs above, the underlying causes are multi-factorial.
We should also continue see a healthy amount of scoring in general: teams averaged 23.3 ppg in 2018 and 22.8 in 2019. The 2nd and 3rd highest scoring seasons ever.
But ...Saquon?
Threads like this amuse the Thrill Ride. Saquon Barkley is already on our team; we can’t put the genie back in the bottle. Where he was picked is immaterial.
And yet, rather incredibly, both the critics and the supporters of the pick itself have “won” while simultaneously losing. At times, he’s a marvelous player with a superhuman highlight reel — gold jacket caliber, perhaps. The Giants are 9-23 with him on the team — that’s an ugly bottom line.
Somehow the conversation has mutated into a clumsy debate over running vs. passing. Here’s the secret: you want to move the ball efficiently. You don’t need to pick a side; how about we build a program that can accomplish both things efficiently depending on the opponent and the game situation?
Saquon can be apart of that, at least temporarily. Although he’s not a superstar receiver as gidiefor ham-fistedly asserted — most impact WR have a higher average depth of target than ::checks notes:: 0.7 yards (!!) — he can affect the game as a pass-catcher. He’s getting paid, but his contract isn’t crippling.
However, even Saquon’s biggest fans have to admit that the calculus changes as he gets older, accumulates more injuries, and his second-contract mega-extension looms. The Rams and Cowboys will offer us a preview of how our team-building strategy can succeed/fail subsequent to the RB mega-deal.
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I'm sorry to say but your arguments are so weak as to not deserve serious contemplation. And further you incorrectly cite statistics as you did by omitting Tyreek Hill in order to prop them up. He's at $18 million per and playing next week in the Super Bowl and would have been at the top of your list -- and would have completely upended your argument on WRs.
Hill just signed a new contract and in 2020 - that's next year for those great at contract numbers and shitty at the year they are applied in.
This year his cap hit was 2.19M Google is your friend - use it - ( New Window )
Hill has certainly been a bargain for them.
There is a valid larger point that the Chiefs has invested a lot in their passing game.
Sammy Watkins (rather unbelievably) was the 7th highest paid WR in 2019, per Brit’s link.
[for those who don’t know, Sammy Watkins also presently plays for the Chiefs.
Their starting OTs, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, both earn over $11M annually.
Travis Kelce is the second-highest paid TE in football.
Mahomes rookie deal casts him as a bargain according to salary, though the team traded significant assets to get him — two 1st rd picks.
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The most common formula for winning a game is the throw effectively to get the lead, and to run effectively to hold it and close the game out.
And how do you build a team capable of both passing and throwing? What position groups are common to both those activities? The answer is obvious. And that is where teams should be investing resources. (By the way QBs are involved in the running game as well, audibling plays, running options, calling out defenders and protections etc...)
Did Barkley leave yards on the field this year? Yes! He needs to be more decisive here on out, OL needs to get better of course, get more tough yards to keep the D honest on him. The talent and drive is there ... he had an injury and some good learning lumps, he'll be fine.