Someday one of these outbreaks will be the major pandemic that kills millions it's only a matter of time.
But BBI has done the analysis and determined this is not the one. So rest easy.
WHO has declared that this is not an international emergency. The CDC released a summary yesterday stating “the immediate health risk to the general American population is considered low at this time”
The main point I’m making is not that this isn’t a situation to be monitored (it most certainly is). My point is that I never cease to be amazed about the fear and paranoia of these things in the America public when there are actual killer diseases that the average Joe is infinitely more likely to run into and yet a large swath of the population refuses to take even the most basic steps against it.
It’s an interesting social observation at the bare minimum
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
My son is in epidemiology and last year worked for NYS. He feels the same way about what gets attention and what doesn't. Even policy makers who should know better because if their media savvy are prone to it.
BTW can you guess where he spent all his time last year? That's right rockland county. Dealing with measles because people there had refused to be inoculated. We're not all living in the 21st century.
Thing about the Spanish flu of 1919 is that it seemed to hit all across the world at the same time to include pacific islands and Artic was that ever explained how.
thy flu shot every year. Reading the anti vaccine stuff I read on the internet is depressing.
What's even worse is that politicians cave to them. Within the last month, NJ totally took the coward's way out in caving to the nuts about ending religious exemptions.
I think this time it is different
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Possible cases in New York Now.
The post had a video from someone inside the hospital in China and there are dead bodies all over the place. They think China is under reporting the death rate right now.
Would China potentially covering up a spreading epidemic... Â
with thousands infected and likely to die surprise anyone? Not me. Their totalitarian leaders would privately welcome it given their population crisis.
Let's see where we are on this in two or three weeks. Reportedly it is easily communicated and can take up to two weeks before producing symptoms. For how long is this one active after leaving an infected person? How many who get it die? Maybe it's all a big "so what." But maybe not.
Tweet from an hour ago makes a point: "The flu killed 60,000 last year and 80,000 the year before and that was a bad flu year. Never saw hospital workers in hazmat suits. Never heard that cities were under quarantine. Whatever China has, it's bad and coming to a town near you."
Tweet from an hour ago makes a point: "The flu killed 60,000 last year and 80,000 the year before and that was a bad flu year. Never saw hospital workers in hazmat suits. Never heard that cities were under quarantine. Whatever China has, it's bad and coming to a town near you."
President Xi said the virus is "accelerating" and says the situation is China is "grave"...
I think this time it is different
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Possible cases in New York Now.
The post had a video from someone inside the hospital in China and there are dead bodies all over the place. They think China is under reporting the death rate right now.
Take it fwiw....I know for a fact that, as of yesterday noon, a total of three specimens had been tested for 2019-nCoV in New York and that all three were negative.
they're building two hospitals - from breaking ground to up and running - expected to house nearly 1400 patients each. Here's a time lapse video.
I wonder what the lead time would be on our part if we had to do something similar. I've seen what the Army CoE can do in a hurry, but not sure what level of emergency we'd have to hit first. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=UtW9Inha82s&feature=emb_logo - ( New Window )
The mass amount of workers China can mobilize has always impressed me. Our production plant in Shenzhen was going to be visited by the CEO and the building didn't have an elevator. The chinese manager thought this would look unfavorably, so he organized a construction group to install an elevator and had a week to do it.
They got it done with a couple hundred people there 24/7.
Thailand is a different story, though. Ten flights per day from Wuhan landed in Bangkok until service was suspended a few days ago. Link - ( New Window )
and people are contagious for longer than SARS. Let's hope it's not as deadly as SARS or MERS. We won't really know for a bit and unfortunately China is in charge of most of the information here.
RE: Doesn't seem like there's much to worry about here yet Â
Thailand is a different story, though. Ten flights per day from Wuhan landed in Bangkok until service was suspended a few days ago. Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, but that's the worrisome part even for us here. It's not just direct contact between the US and Wuhan (or China), it's how many carriers of the disease may have gone to other locations and then off to the US (or in contact with US citizens).
I'm not exactly panicking (even though I live a stone's throw away from NYC's largest Chinese neighborhood). But given the disease's 10 day incubation period before symptoms manifest, I wouldn't be surprised if this one spread out quite a bit before it's brought under control. I guess the next week would be critical.
RE: RE: Doesn't seem like there's much to worry about here yet Â
Thailand is a different story, though. Ten flights per day from Wuhan landed in Bangkok until service was suspended a few days ago. Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, but that's the worrisome part even for us here. It's not just direct contact between the US and Wuhan (or China), it's how many carriers of the disease may have gone to other locations and then off to the US (or in contact with US citizens).
I'm not exactly panicking (even though I live a stone's throw away from NYC's largest Chinese neighborhood). But given the disease's 10 day incubation period before symptoms manifest, I wouldn't be surprised if this one spread out quite a bit before it's brought under control. I guess the next week would be critical.
I'm guessing the opposite. That this gets quashed quickly and truly spreads (outside of the Wuhan area) poorly and that the major ramifications will only be felt in someone's 401K.
I am not totally sure about person to person transmission. SO far, it seems like those on the receiving end are in very close contact (family members, health care providers).
but we get updates from the experts where I work. I'm also basing a lot of the lack of spread and how vigorously China is working to insulate themselves. I also saw a line on one of the scrolls this morning that says that China wants to strengthen its central government in response to this. That makes me somewhat question whether this might be a convenient excuse for them to get some of their citizenry (including HK) back in line.
...my wife has worked for a hospital network for 12 years, and twice we've received Pandemic alerts that advised us to stock up on 3 weeks worth of food.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
...my wife has worked for a hospital network for 12 years, and twice we've received Pandemic alerts that advised us to stock up on 3 weeks worth of food.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
sounds like twice you were stuck with an overflowing pantry:)
I'm guessing the opposite. That this gets quashed quickly and truly spreads (outside of the Wuhan area) poorly and that the major ramifications will only be felt in someone's 401K.
I am not totally sure about person to person transmission. SO far, it seems like those on the receiving end are in very close contact (family members, health care providers).
This is one occasion where I'm rooting for you to be right. And you're due... ;)
...my wife has worked for a hospital network for 12 years, and twice we've received Pandemic alerts that advised us to stock up on 3 weeks worth of food.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
sounds like twice you were stuck with an overflowing pantry:)
Actually, I WAS - but I wasn't *stuck* with it - I bought a cabinet for that purpose and we've had it ever since, almost always loaded heavy - what I love about it is I'm almost NEVER out of anything. I have 3 son's, so I can never have too much food on hand.
I'm seeing more people coming down with flu and nasty fucking colds and sinus infections than I think I've ever seen.
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
That's actually normal and sort of play's into the initial comments in this thread about the Flu being given the short shrift.
Last season, my son's HS had the flu sweep through it at this time. They couldn't even field enough kids to run a full offense on defense for lacrosse for the first week of practice. We had one team forfeit two days before a game because the flu hit them.
I think last year, 20+ people died in SC because of the flu. That will likely be 20 more than who will die of this virus in SC....
I'm seeing more people coming down with flu and nasty fucking colds and sinus infections than I think I've ever seen.
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
A bunch of people having bad colds during the peak of flu season is definitely cause for alarm.
I mean, big bucket of Costco Mac and Cheese cause for alarm.
Not to play the ole correlation/causation thing over, but I'd keep an eye out on the stats for the expiration date of these buckets and spikes in diarrhea as well.
See the attached and slide down to the interactive map. 35 states are in the Red.
I am in the health care space and we follow this closely as it determines seasonality in our cost of care projections (I do risk management), and how we report up to Wall St. FLU Season - ( New Window )
And symptoms-wise it will feed into the coronavirus.
Just saw a report that it is very likely that this arose form bats (I mentioned this earlier). There's about a 97% genetic identity to a bat coronavirus and a simililar identity to SARS. SARS was originally a bat virus that moved to civet cats and then to humans.
Prevailing theory is that 2019-nCoV also moved from bats to some other animal...one report argues that this, like SARS, is a consequence of eating bushmeat/exotic animals. That's possible...I heard snake last week...but it could also be bats shitting on pig feed or something like that. Then, a single mutation likely caused a jump from the animal into humans.
Sounds like the initial many cases were animal to human which effectively seeded a population of transmitters and now it's human to human. The report I saw suggested that the numbers are actually much higher but not reported due to low symptoms.
Fascinating to watch but I still believe that the biggest danger for Americans is economical (and that could be huge) rather than medical.
The team’s model predicted the number of infections in five mainland megacities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chongqing – would peak between late April and early May. At the height of the epidemic, as many as 150,000 new cases would be confirmed every day in Chongqing, because of its large population coupled with intense travel volume with Wuhan.
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
RE: is this true- that the virus started in a lab or created in a lab? Â
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's usually how it works, right? the Aged, infants, stressed, and otherwise sick all have diminished immunity and are always the most prone to the worst outcome.
RE: RE: That would unseat Chongqing's current reason for notoriety Â
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's usually how it works, right? the Aged, infants, stressed, and otherwise sick all have diminished immunity and are always the most prone to the worst outcome.
From reading stuff: Regular seasonal influenza kills less than 1%. Wuhan virus is killing about 2.8% (but the data is limited and weak). SARS killed about 9.6% and MERS 34.4% over the last 20 years. Big issues: communicability and how long it takes for symptoms to become evident (up to 14 days), if there are any, in the case of the Wuhan virus. Thus we can't effectively screen for it. People older than 50 are the most vulnerable.
But BBI has done the analysis and determined this is not the one. So rest easy.
But BBI has done the analysis and determined this is not the one. So rest easy.
WHO has declared that this is not an international emergency. The CDC released a summary yesterday stating “the immediate health risk to the general American population is considered low at this time”
The main point I’m making is not that this isn’t a situation to be monitored (it most certainly is). My point is that I never cease to be amazed about the fear and paranoia of these things in the America public when there are actual killer diseases that the average Joe is infinitely more likely to run into and yet a large swath of the population refuses to take even the most basic steps against it.
It’s an interesting social observation at the bare minimum
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
My son is in epidemiology and last year worked for NYS. He feels the same way about what gets attention and what doesn't. Even policy makers who should know better because if their media savvy are prone to it.
BTW can you guess where he spent all his time last year? That's right rockland county. Dealing with measles because people there had refused to be inoculated. We're not all living in the 21st century.
I've been preparing for this day all my life.
--Every doomsday prepper
Just for that, I'm not going to share my freeze dried food with you!
What's even worse is that politicians cave to them. Within the last month, NJ totally took the coward's way out in caving to the nuts about ending religious exemptions.
Quote:
Steer clear of bat soup til this blows over.
Snake soup.
Duck Soup is more fun.
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Quote:
I think this time it is different
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Possible cases in New York Now.
The post had a video from someone inside the hospital in China and there are dead bodies all over the place. They think China is under reporting the death rate right now.
President Xi said the virus is "accelerating" and says the situation is China is "grave"...
I wonder what the lead time would be on our part if we had to do something similar. I've seen what the Army CoE can do in a hurry, but not sure what level of emergency we'd have to hit first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=UtW9Inha82s&feature=emb_logo - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14792941 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:
I think this time it is different
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Possible cases in New York Now.
The post had a video from someone inside the hospital in China and there are dead bodies all over the place. They think China is under reporting the death rate right now.
Take it fwiw....I know for a fact that, as of yesterday noon, a total of three specimens had been tested for 2019-nCoV in New York and that all three were negative.
I wonder what the lead time would be on our part if we had to do something similar. I've seen what the Army CoE can do in a hurry, but not sure what level of emergency we'd have to hit first. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=UtW9Inha82s&feature=emb_logo - ( New Window )
The mass amount of workers China can mobilize has always impressed me. Our production plant in Shenzhen was going to be visited by the CEO and the building didn't have an elevator. The chinese manager thought this would look unfavorably, so he organized a construction group to install an elevator and had a week to do it.
They got it done with a couple hundred people there 24/7.
Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, but that's the worrisome part even for us here. It's not just direct contact between the US and Wuhan (or China), it's how many carriers of the disease may have gone to other locations and then off to the US (or in contact with US citizens).
I'm not exactly panicking (even though I live a stone's throw away from NYC's largest Chinese neighborhood). But given the disease's 10 day incubation period before symptoms manifest, I wouldn't be surprised if this one spread out quite a bit before it's brought under control. I guess the next week would be critical.
Quote:
Thailand is a different story, though. Ten flights per day from Wuhan landed in Bangkok until service was suspended a few days ago. Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, but that's the worrisome part even for us here. It's not just direct contact between the US and Wuhan (or China), it's how many carriers of the disease may have gone to other locations and then off to the US (or in contact with US citizens).
I'm not exactly panicking (even though I live a stone's throw away from NYC's largest Chinese neighborhood). But given the disease's 10 day incubation period before symptoms manifest, I wouldn't be surprised if this one spread out quite a bit before it's brought under control. I guess the next week would be critical.
I'm guessing the opposite. That this gets quashed quickly and truly spreads (outside of the Wuhan area) poorly and that the major ramifications will only be felt in someone's 401K.
I am not totally sure about person to person transmission. SO far, it seems like those on the receiving end are in very close contact (family members, health care providers).
Tensions are a little high here, with almost everyone in the Chinatown area of 8th ave in Brooklyn walking around with medical masks.
Because of the fear/hype/legit concern or because all of the traders are infected?
My guess is that it's China's exuberant response to being in the spotlight and the impact of clamping down on the country on their businesses.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
sounds like twice you were stuck with an overflowing pantry:)
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
I'm guessing the opposite. That this gets quashed quickly and truly spreads (outside of the Wuhan area) poorly and that the major ramifications will only be felt in someone's 401K.
I am not totally sure about person to person transmission. SO far, it seems like those on the receiving end are in very close contact (family members, health care providers).
This is one occasion where I'm rooting for you to be right. And you're due... ;)
Quote:
...my wife has worked for a hospital network for 12 years, and twice we've received Pandemic alerts that advised us to stock up on 3 weeks worth of food.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
sounds like twice you were stuck with an overflowing pantry:)
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
That's actually normal and sort of play's into the initial comments in this thread about the Flu being given the short shrift.
Last season, my son's HS had the flu sweep through it at this time. They couldn't even field enough kids to run a full offense on defense for lacrosse for the first week of practice. We had one team forfeit two days before a game because the flu hit them.
I think last year, 20+ people died in SC because of the flu. That will likely be 20 more than who will die of this virus in SC....
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
A bunch of people having bad colds during the peak of flu season is definitely cause for alarm.
I mean, big bucket of Costco Mac and Cheese cause for alarm.
Not to play the ole correlation/causation thing over, but I'd keep an eye out on the stats for the expiration date of these buckets and spikes in diarrhea as well.
I am in the health care space and we follow this closely as it determines seasonality in our cost of care projections (I do risk management), and how we report up to Wall St.
FLU Season - ( New Window )
Just saw a report that it is very likely that this arose form bats (I mentioned this earlier). There's about a 97% genetic identity to a bat coronavirus and a simililar identity to SARS. SARS was originally a bat virus that moved to civet cats and then to humans.
Prevailing theory is that 2019-nCoV also moved from bats to some other animal...one report argues that this, like SARS, is a consequence of eating bushmeat/exotic animals. That's possible...I heard snake last week...but it could also be bats shitting on pig feed or something like that. Then, a single mutation likely caused a jump from the animal into humans.
Sounds like the initial many cases were animal to human which effectively seeded a population of transmitters and now it's human to human. The report I saw suggested that the numbers are actually much higher but not reported due to low symptoms.
Fascinating to watch but I still believe that the biggest danger for Americans is economical (and that could be huge) rather than medical.
Hey, you stole that from the plot of Contagion!
Fascinating to watch but I still believe that the biggest danger for Americans is economical (and that could be huge) rather than medical.
So you're saying move more into cash for at least the short term? ;)
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's the go-to for the conspiracy community. Everything, from Ebola to SARS to Lyme disease was apparently started in a lab somewhere.
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's usually how it works, right? the Aged, infants, stressed, and otherwise sick all have diminished immunity and are always the most prone to the worst outcome.
Quote:
their incredibly spicy chicken dishes.
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's usually how it works, right? the Aged, infants, stressed, and otherwise sick all have diminished immunity and are always the most prone to the worst outcome.
From reading stuff: Regular seasonal influenza kills less than 1%. Wuhan virus is killing about 2.8% (but the data is limited and weak). SARS killed about 9.6% and MERS 34.4% over the last 20 years. Big issues: communicability and how long it takes for symptoms to become evident (up to 14 days), if there are any, in the case of the Wuhan virus. Thus we can't effectively screen for it. People older than 50 are the most vulnerable.