Meanwhile over 6000 people have been killed by the flu in the US this year and I still have to fight with half my patients to get a shot. Hell...it’s only January so we’ve got months to go and that number is gonna sky rocket as we get into the depths of the season
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Meanwhile over 6000 people have been killed by the flu in the US this year and I still have to fight with half my patients to get a shot. Hell...it’s only January so we’ve got months to go and that number is gonna sky rocket as we get into the depths of the season
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
I still remain stunned by the reaction of the media and the non-medical community to situations like this.
You have a common disease that killed 80,000 Americans in the 2017-2018 season. You WILL run across this disease, most likely several times a year, and there IS a proven method to reduce your likelihood of contracting said disease. The effectiveness of said vaccine changes year to year...but I submit that an intervention with no scientifically-proven significant side effects (owing that you aren't allergic) that still decreases your chance of getting this said disease by 40-50% is worthwhile. Yet a large portion of the general population is either apathetic (I haven't gotten the flu since I was 10, doc) or harbors a weird paranoia (whats even in the shot, doc? or Its just a money-making ploy, doc) about a flu shot
Meanwhile, Wuhan coronavirus will make the news for the next few weeks/months until it is contained. Yes, it is an especially virulent strain of coronavirus. However, baring some unforeseen doomsday catastrophe it will likely not even come anywhere close to landing as many people in the hospital or killing as many people as the flu. But I assure you that in the comments of nearly every facebook post you see on the Wuhan virus, someone will be asking about why a vaccine hasn't been found yet or some effective way to treat/prevent it.
The Wuhan virus makes a better story so it will be fed to everyone through the media and stoke paranoia about a worldwide, killer epidemic that has a one in a million chance of actually materializing. Meanwhile, people are dying in ICUs all across this country of "just the flu" on a daily basis and you may catch a blurb about it when you are skimming CNN
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
Meanwhile over 6000 people have been killed by the flu in the US this year and I still have to fight with half my patients to get a shot. Hell...it’s only January so we’ve got months to go and that number is gonna sky rocket as we get into the depths of the season
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
The chances of coming into contact with a SARS-infected person are minuscule. The opposite is true for flu. So, those percentages are misleading when making an argument about what you should fear. The reality is that in this country thousands and maybe even tens of thousands of people will (unnecessarily) die because of flu. It’s highly unlikely, although not impossible, that even one person will die because of SARS over here (or Ebola or 2109-nCov)
RE: While the mortality rates between the illnesses are different Â
I still remain stunned by the reaction of the media and the non-medical community to situations like this.
You have a common disease that killed 80,000 Americans in the 2017-2018 season. You WILL run across this disease, most likely several times a year, and there IS a proven method to reduce your likelihood of contracting said disease. The effectiveness of said vaccine changes year to year...but I submit that an intervention with no scientifically-proven significant side effects (owing that you aren't allergic) that still decreases your chance of getting this said disease by 40-50% is worthwhile. Yet a large portion of the general population is either apathetic (I haven't gotten the flu since I was 10, doc) or harbors a weird paranoia (whats even in the shot, doc? or Its just a money-making ploy, doc) about a flu shot
Meanwhile, Wuhan coronavirus will make the news for the next few weeks/months until it is contained. Yes, it is an especially virulent strain of coronavirus. However, baring some unforeseen doomsday catastrophe it will likely not even come anywhere close to landing as many people in the hospital or killing as many people as the flu. But I assure you that in the comments of nearly every facebook post you see on the Wuhan virus, someone will be asking about why a vaccine hasn't been found yet or some effective way to treat/prevent it.
The Wuhan virus makes a better story so it will be fed to everyone through the media and stoke paranoia about a worldwide, killer epidemic that has a one in a million chance of actually materializing. Meanwhile, people are dying in ICUs all across this country of "just the flu" on a daily basis and you may catch a blurb about it when you are skimming CNN
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
The difference is that it’s the fucking flu. People die from the flu every year. It’s not uncommon.
Something like SARS or this Virus were unknown at the time. No one knows how dangerous they are because they are mutated versions of the same virus found in multiple animals.
In order to prevent it from spreading and then possibly killing large number of people they have to promote it. I don’t care, they need to be overly cautious because of the unknownZ
The flu comes every year kills people every year and people are dumb about getting the shot. Rinse repeat it will happen again next year.
I still remain stunned by the reaction of the media and the non-medical community to situations like this.
You have a common disease that killed 80,000 Americans in the 2017-2018 season. You WILL run across this disease, most likely several times a year, and there IS a proven method to reduce your likelihood of contracting said disease. The effectiveness of said vaccine changes year to year...but I submit that an intervention with no scientifically-proven significant side effects (owing that you aren't allergic) that still decreases your chance of getting this said disease by 40-50% is worthwhile. Yet a large portion of the general population is either apathetic (I haven't gotten the flu since I was 10, doc) or harbors a weird paranoia (whats even in the shot, doc? or Its just a money-making ploy, doc) about a flu shot
Meanwhile, Wuhan coronavirus will make the news for the next few weeks/months until it is contained. Yes, it is an especially virulent strain of coronavirus. However, baring some unforeseen doomsday catastrophe it will likely not even come anywhere close to landing as many people in the hospital or killing as many people as the flu. But I assure you that in the comments of nearly every facebook post you see on the Wuhan virus, someone will be asking about why a vaccine hasn't been found yet or some effective way to treat/prevent it.
The Wuhan virus makes a better story so it will be fed to everyone through the media and stoke paranoia about a worldwide, killer epidemic that has a one in a million chance of actually materializing. Meanwhile, people are dying in ICUs all across this country of "just the flu" on a daily basis and you may catch a blurb about it when you are skimming CNN
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
The difference is that it’s the fucking flu. People die from the flu every year. It’s not uncommon.
Something like SARS or this Virus were unknown at the time. No one knows how dangerous they are because they are mutated versions of the same virus found in multiple animals.
In order to prevent it from spreading and then possibly killing large number of people they have to promote it. I don’t care, they need to be overly cautious because of the unknownZ
The flu comes every year kills people every year and people are dumb about getting the shot. Rinse repeat it will happen again next year.
The fact of the matter is that the chance of any of these diseases (SARS, Ebola, now Wuhan Coronoavirus) ever becoming a worldwide killer epidemic is nearly null. The CDC gets flak for being a bloated bureaucratic government agency, but they are really very good at what they do (and all developed nations have their equivalent). Remember when Ebola was going to wipe out the entire southern US when that patient arrived on the plane from West Africa? Or SARS or MERS...the list goes on
Barring some horrific doomsday scenario, none of these diseases will every reach the global-killer status they are branded with. And that isn't because CNN and the New York Times do such a great job raising awareness.
These bugs make better stories than "the fucking flu", which is why you will hear and read about them for the next couple of months. It's not because it poses a greater threat to humanity than the flu, or measles or such...but because it will attract more attention and more readers and listeners than an "everyday disease"
I mean that’s really the point isn’t it? Not so much of the relative scariness of exotic viruses versus the flu (which is actually way more exotic than those other one; if mutation is your lynchpin, nothing mutates more than the flu virus), but the fact the people get scared by exotic viruses while stupidly straddling the edge of suicide by not doing something very simple to prevent flu infection. You can do something about the flu; you can only hide under your bed to escape from SARS
Meanwhile over 6000 people have been killed by the flu in the US this year and I still have to fight with half my patients to get a shot. Hell...it’s only January so we’ve got months to go and that number is gonna sky rocket as we get into the depths of the season
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
I remember when the H1n1 pandemic and they made a vaccine for it. Employees that refused the flu vaccine we’re lining up to get the H1n1. All media driven.
The 2003-2004 flu season saw more than 48,000 people die from flu
The average Americans fear is misplaced....
I guess you should take it up with the CDC or WHO. They want to control the spread of these exotic diseases that pop up and we have no idea how deadly they can be. They just want to prevent it from spreading. The flu is around every year and yes it kills, but the idiots out there refuse to get vaccinated. He’ll MMR is coming back because of anti-vaxers.
This kid got the flu shot and still died from the flu. Crazy. This year’s flu is particularly resistant to the flu shot from doctors I have spoken to, but I would still get one if I could to reduce chances. Not everyone can get the flu shot. My wife and kids do, but I can’t due to all the chemicals in it.
The 2003-2004 flu season saw more than 48,000 people die from flu
The average Americans fear is misplaced....
I guess you should take it up with the CDC or WHO. They want to control the spread of these exotic diseases that pop up and we have no idea how deadly they can be. They just want to prevent it from spreading. The flu is around every year and yes it kills, but the idiots out there refuse to get vaccinated. He’ll MMR is coming back because of anti-vaxers.
The same WHO that has declared that this virus is not an international emergency?
Meanwhile over 6000 people have been killed by the flu in the US this year and I still have to fight with half my patients to get a shot. Hell...it’s only January so we’ve got months to go and that number is gonna sky rocket as we get into the depths of the season
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
The chances of coming into contact with a SARS-infected person are minuscule. The opposite is true for flu. So, those percentages are misleading when making an argument about what you should fear. The reality is that in this country thousands and maybe even tens of thousands of people will (unnecessarily) die because of flu. It’s highly unlikely, although not impossible, that even one person will die because of SARS over here (or Ebola or 2109-nCov)
if the question is why does flu not get press but these new viruses do the is simply what i said. you know NOW that SARS was contained widely and did not spread, you did not know that would happen when it first broke. you don't know how much this is spread already. we generally know how the flu works and the type of people most susceptible to it. we didn't even know this could spread human human at the start of this week. people dying from a mystery illness at a high rate is going to be news. you need to accept this. it doesn't mean you need to change your life or act all scared. i'm constantly perplexed who takes things like this personally. this won't affect anything at all for me because i don't have plans to travel to asia this month or next. but i'm glad people are monitoring it so i can be informed in case new information does need to be disseminated quickly and with credibility. in fact, i'll probably get chinese for lunch, great roast pork belly place by me i haven't been to in a long time.
are really misleading when an outbreak first happens:
Quote:
my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
[
The Flu epidemic in 1919 had a higher mortality rate than SARS.
And that 10% mortality is mostly confined to China. The mortality rate in the US and the UK was zero for SARS. I think Canada had one death of a Chinese national.
Even if this isn't the virus that's going to wipe out a billion people it follows the same pattern of one that might. A virus jumps from animals to humans somewhere in China and before authorities are on top of it, it's already spread around the world.
Also learning about wet markets that sell donkeys, sheep, pigs, foxes, badgers, bamboo rats, hedgehogs, and snakes is fascinating.
All of it piques ones interest more than another story about the flu.
during SARS, and they had these scanners they would put on your forehead to take your temperature going from train stations. I would occasionally see people get pulled out of line. I just prayed to God I didn't get pulled out. Going through the border to get back to Hong Kong, they had heat scanners as you passed through, puling people out for further tests too. By that time, I was starting to feel a little sick.
When I returned home from that trip, I was sick for a week, but it was just an old-fashioned cold.
are really misleading when an outbreak first happens:
Quote:
my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
[
The Flu epidemic in 1919 had a higher mortality rate than SARS.
And that 10% mortality is mostly confined to China. The mortality rate in the US and the UK was zero for SARS. I think Canada had one death of a Chinese national.
ok, and? are you arguing against what i said being the reasons why it gets new coverage? my guess is the flu in 1919 got a lot more coverage in the papers than this. and i have no idea what the mortality in the US was, and it's irrelevant to the question of why an emerging outbreak of an unknown with virus coupled with a global traveling population would be concerned about it spreading.
if you want to add the reason that it's the press and they sensationalize things then great. you didn't say that, you didn't make a point at all actually, but that's the only other point to be made. and it's baked in when talking about the press.
meanwhile, i'll point out the press didn't start this thread. someone this board did :)
I was pointing out that using mortality rates to indicate something is dangerous isn't the best indicator.
I also think the coverage of the virus is over the top and spreads fear, but that's par for the course with media today - they need to report something and sensationalize it.
As a comedian once said, "The nightly newscasts starts out with "Good Evening" and then spends the next 30 minutes telling you exactly why it isn't".
Someday one of these outbreaks will be the major pandemic that kills millions it's only a matter of time.
But BBI has done the analysis and determined this is not the one. So rest easy.
WHO has declared that this is not an international emergency. The CDC released a summary yesterday stating “the immediate health risk to the general American population is considered low at this time”
The main point I’m making is not that this isn’t a situation to be monitored (it most certainly is). My point is that I never cease to be amazed about the fear and paranoia of these things in the America public when there are actual killer diseases that the average Joe is infinitely more likely to run into and yet a large swath of the population refuses to take even the most basic steps against it.
It’s an interesting social observation at the bare minimum
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
My son is in epidemiology and last year worked for NYS. He feels the same way about what gets attention and what doesn't. Even policy makers who should know better because if their media savvy are prone to it.
BTW can you guess where he spent all his time last year? That's right rockland county. Dealing with measles because people there had refused to be inoculated. We're not all living in the 21st century.
Thing about the Spanish flu of 1919 is that it seemed to hit all across the world at the same time to include pacific islands and Artic was that ever explained how.
thy flu shot every year. Reading the anti vaccine stuff I read on the internet is depressing.
What's even worse is that politicians cave to them. Within the last month, NJ totally took the coward's way out in caving to the nuts about ending religious exemptions.
I think this time it is different
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Possible cases in New York Now.
The post had a video from someone inside the hospital in China and there are dead bodies all over the place. They think China is under reporting the death rate right now.
Would China potentially covering up a spreading epidemic... Â
with thousands infected and likely to die surprise anyone? Not me. Their totalitarian leaders would privately welcome it given their population crisis.
Let's see where we are on this in two or three weeks. Reportedly it is easily communicated and can take up to two weeks before producing symptoms. For how long is this one active after leaving an infected person? How many who get it die? Maybe it's all a big "so what." But maybe not.
Tweet from an hour ago makes a point: "The flu killed 60,000 last year and 80,000 the year before and that was a bad flu year. Never saw hospital workers in hazmat suits. Never heard that cities were under quarantine. Whatever China has, it's bad and coming to a town near you."
Tweet from an hour ago makes a point: "The flu killed 60,000 last year and 80,000 the year before and that was a bad flu year. Never saw hospital workers in hazmat suits. Never heard that cities were under quarantine. Whatever China has, it's bad and coming to a town near you."
President Xi said the virus is "accelerating" and says the situation is China is "grave"...
I think this time it is different
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Possible cases in New York Now.
The post had a video from someone inside the hospital in China and there are dead bodies all over the place. They think China is under reporting the death rate right now.
Take it fwiw....I know for a fact that, as of yesterday noon, a total of three specimens had been tested for 2019-nCoV in New York and that all three were negative.
they're building two hospitals - from breaking ground to up and running - expected to house nearly 1400 patients each. Here's a time lapse video.
I wonder what the lead time would be on our part if we had to do something similar. I've seen what the Army CoE can do in a hurry, but not sure what level of emergency we'd have to hit first. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=UtW9Inha82s&feature=emb_logo - ( New Window )
The mass amount of workers China can mobilize has always impressed me. Our production plant in Shenzhen was going to be visited by the CEO and the building didn't have an elevator. The chinese manager thought this would look unfavorably, so he organized a construction group to install an elevator and had a week to do it.
They got it done with a couple hundred people there 24/7.
Thailand is a different story, though. Ten flights per day from Wuhan landed in Bangkok until service was suspended a few days ago. Link - ( New Window )
and people are contagious for longer than SARS. Let's hope it's not as deadly as SARS or MERS. We won't really know for a bit and unfortunately China is in charge of most of the information here.
RE: Doesn't seem like there's much to worry about here yet Â
Thailand is a different story, though. Ten flights per day from Wuhan landed in Bangkok until service was suspended a few days ago. Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, but that's the worrisome part even for us here. It's not just direct contact between the US and Wuhan (or China), it's how many carriers of the disease may have gone to other locations and then off to the US (or in contact with US citizens).
I'm not exactly panicking (even though I live a stone's throw away from NYC's largest Chinese neighborhood). But given the disease's 10 day incubation period before symptoms manifest, I wouldn't be surprised if this one spread out quite a bit before it's brought under control. I guess the next week would be critical.
RE: RE: Doesn't seem like there's much to worry about here yet Â
Thailand is a different story, though. Ten flights per day from Wuhan landed in Bangkok until service was suspended a few days ago. Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, but that's the worrisome part even for us here. It's not just direct contact between the US and Wuhan (or China), it's how many carriers of the disease may have gone to other locations and then off to the US (or in contact with US citizens).
I'm not exactly panicking (even though I live a stone's throw away from NYC's largest Chinese neighborhood). But given the disease's 10 day incubation period before symptoms manifest, I wouldn't be surprised if this one spread out quite a bit before it's brought under control. I guess the next week would be critical.
I'm guessing the opposite. That this gets quashed quickly and truly spreads (outside of the Wuhan area) poorly and that the major ramifications will only be felt in someone's 401K.
I am not totally sure about person to person transmission. SO far, it seems like those on the receiving end are in very close contact (family members, health care providers).
but we get updates from the experts where I work. I'm also basing a lot of the lack of spread and how vigorously China is working to insulate themselves. I also saw a line on one of the scrolls this morning that says that China wants to strengthen its central government in response to this. That makes me somewhat question whether this might be a convenient excuse for them to get some of their citizenry (including HK) back in line.
...my wife has worked for a hospital network for 12 years, and twice we've received Pandemic alerts that advised us to stock up on 3 weeks worth of food.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
...my wife has worked for a hospital network for 12 years, and twice we've received Pandemic alerts that advised us to stock up on 3 weeks worth of food.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
sounds like twice you were stuck with an overflowing pantry:)
I'm guessing the opposite. That this gets quashed quickly and truly spreads (outside of the Wuhan area) poorly and that the major ramifications will only be felt in someone's 401K.
I am not totally sure about person to person transmission. SO far, it seems like those on the receiving end are in very close contact (family members, health care providers).
This is one occasion where I'm rooting for you to be right. And you're due... ;)
...my wife has worked for a hospital network for 12 years, and twice we've received Pandemic alerts that advised us to stock up on 3 weeks worth of food.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
sounds like twice you were stuck with an overflowing pantry:)
Actually, I WAS - but I wasn't *stuck* with it - I bought a cabinet for that purpose and we've had it ever since, almost always loaded heavy - what I love about it is I'm almost NEVER out of anything. I have 3 son's, so I can never have too much food on hand.
I'm seeing more people coming down with flu and nasty fucking colds and sinus infections than I think I've ever seen.
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
That's actually normal and sort of play's into the initial comments in this thread about the Flu being given the short shrift.
Last season, my son's HS had the flu sweep through it at this time. They couldn't even field enough kids to run a full offense on defense for lacrosse for the first week of practice. We had one team forfeit two days before a game because the flu hit them.
I think last year, 20+ people died in SC because of the flu. That will likely be 20 more than who will die of this virus in SC....
I'm seeing more people coming down with flu and nasty fucking colds and sinus infections than I think I've ever seen.
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
A bunch of people having bad colds during the peak of flu season is definitely cause for alarm.
I mean, big bucket of Costco Mac and Cheese cause for alarm.
Not to play the ole correlation/causation thing over, but I'd keep an eye out on the stats for the expiration date of these buckets and spikes in diarrhea as well.
See the attached and slide down to the interactive map. 35 states are in the Red.
I am in the health care space and we follow this closely as it determines seasonality in our cost of care projections (I do risk management), and how we report up to Wall St. FLU Season - ( New Window )
And symptoms-wise it will feed into the coronavirus.
Just saw a report that it is very likely that this arose form bats (I mentioned this earlier). There's about a 97% genetic identity to a bat coronavirus and a simililar identity to SARS. SARS was originally a bat virus that moved to civet cats and then to humans.
Prevailing theory is that 2019-nCoV also moved from bats to some other animal...one report argues that this, like SARS, is a consequence of eating bushmeat/exotic animals. That's possible...I heard snake last week...but it could also be bats shitting on pig feed or something like that. Then, a single mutation likely caused a jump from the animal into humans.
Sounds like the initial many cases were animal to human which effectively seeded a population of transmitters and now it's human to human. The report I saw suggested that the numbers are actually much higher but not reported due to low symptoms.
Fascinating to watch but I still believe that the biggest danger for Americans is economical (and that could be huge) rather than medical.
The team’s model predicted the number of infections in five mainland megacities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chongqing – would peak between late April and early May. At the height of the epidemic, as many as 150,000 new cases would be confirmed every day in Chongqing, because of its large population coupled with intense travel volume with Wuhan.
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
RE: is this true- that the virus started in a lab or created in a lab? Â
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's usually how it works, right? the Aged, infants, stressed, and otherwise sick all have diminished immunity and are always the most prone to the worst outcome.
RE: RE: That would unseat Chongqing's current reason for notoriety Â
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's usually how it works, right? the Aged, infants, stressed, and otherwise sick all have diminished immunity and are always the most prone to the worst outcome.
From reading stuff: Regular seasonal influenza kills less than 1%. Wuhan virus is killing about 2.8% (but the data is limited and weak). SARS killed about 9.6% and MERS 34.4% over the last 20 years. Big issues: communicability and how long it takes for symptoms to become evident (up to 14 days), if there are any, in the case of the Wuhan virus. Thus we can't effectively screen for it. People older than 50 are the most vulnerable.
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
Link - ( New Window )
He was just like me...Flu Shot? Not on your life...
You need to get the Flu Shot...if not for you then the others you might infect...your wife or your kids
I have spent months sitting in hospital rooms listening to the doctors talk about how stupid and stubborn the public is...
I live in College Station...my sister and I had a chuckle over this Coronavirus...
No one thinks it will happen to them
It does...
You have a common disease that killed 80,000 Americans in the 2017-2018 season. You WILL run across this disease, most likely several times a year, and there IS a proven method to reduce your likelihood of contracting said disease. The effectiveness of said vaccine changes year to year...but I submit that an intervention with no scientifically-proven significant side effects (owing that you aren't allergic) that still decreases your chance of getting this said disease by 40-50% is worthwhile. Yet a large portion of the general population is either apathetic (I haven't gotten the flu since I was 10, doc) or harbors a weird paranoia (whats even in the shot, doc? or Its just a money-making ploy, doc) about a flu shot
Meanwhile, Wuhan coronavirus will make the news for the next few weeks/months until it is contained. Yes, it is an especially virulent strain of coronavirus. However, baring some unforeseen doomsday catastrophe it will likely not even come anywhere close to landing as many people in the hospital or killing as many people as the flu. But I assure you that in the comments of nearly every facebook post you see on the Wuhan virus, someone will be asking about why a vaccine hasn't been found yet or some effective way to treat/prevent it.
The Wuhan virus makes a better story so it will be fed to everyone through the media and stoke paranoia about a worldwide, killer epidemic that has a one in a million chance of actually materializing. Meanwhile, people are dying in ICUs all across this country of "just the flu" on a daily basis and you may catch a blurb about it when you are skimming CNN
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
Quote:
Meanwhile over 6000 people have been killed by the flu in the US this year and I still have to fight with half my patients to get a shot. Hell...it’s only January so we’ve got months to go and that number is gonna sky rocket as we get into the depths of the season
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
The chances of coming into contact with a SARS-infected person are minuscule. The opposite is true for flu. So, those percentages are misleading when making an argument about what you should fear. The reality is that in this country thousands and maybe even tens of thousands of people will (unnecessarily) die because of flu. It’s highly unlikely, although not impossible, that even one person will die because of SARS over here (or Ebola or 2109-nCov)
You have a common disease that killed 80,000 Americans in the 2017-2018 season. You WILL run across this disease, most likely several times a year, and there IS a proven method to reduce your likelihood of contracting said disease. The effectiveness of said vaccine changes year to year...but I submit that an intervention with no scientifically-proven significant side effects (owing that you aren't allergic) that still decreases your chance of getting this said disease by 40-50% is worthwhile. Yet a large portion of the general population is either apathetic (I haven't gotten the flu since I was 10, doc) or harbors a weird paranoia (whats even in the shot, doc? or Its just a money-making ploy, doc) about a flu shot
Meanwhile, Wuhan coronavirus will make the news for the next few weeks/months until it is contained. Yes, it is an especially virulent strain of coronavirus. However, baring some unforeseen doomsday catastrophe it will likely not even come anywhere close to landing as many people in the hospital or killing as many people as the flu. But I assure you that in the comments of nearly every facebook post you see on the Wuhan virus, someone will be asking about why a vaccine hasn't been found yet or some effective way to treat/prevent it.
The Wuhan virus makes a better story so it will be fed to everyone through the media and stoke paranoia about a worldwide, killer epidemic that has a one in a million chance of actually materializing. Meanwhile, people are dying in ICUs all across this country of "just the flu" on a daily basis and you may catch a blurb about it when you are skimming CNN
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
The difference is that it’s the fucking flu. People die from the flu every year. It’s not uncommon.
Something like SARS or this Virus were unknown at the time. No one knows how dangerous they are because they are mutated versions of the same virus found in multiple animals.
In order to prevent it from spreading and then possibly killing large number of people they have to promote it. I don’t care, they need to be overly cautious because of the unknownZ
The flu comes every year kills people every year and people are dumb about getting the shot. Rinse repeat it will happen again next year.
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I still remain stunned by the reaction of the media and the non-medical community to situations like this.
You have a common disease that killed 80,000 Americans in the 2017-2018 season. You WILL run across this disease, most likely several times a year, and there IS a proven method to reduce your likelihood of contracting said disease. The effectiveness of said vaccine changes year to year...but I submit that an intervention with no scientifically-proven significant side effects (owing that you aren't allergic) that still decreases your chance of getting this said disease by 40-50% is worthwhile. Yet a large portion of the general population is either apathetic (I haven't gotten the flu since I was 10, doc) or harbors a weird paranoia (whats even in the shot, doc? or Its just a money-making ploy, doc) about a flu shot
Meanwhile, Wuhan coronavirus will make the news for the next few weeks/months until it is contained. Yes, it is an especially virulent strain of coronavirus. However, baring some unforeseen doomsday catastrophe it will likely not even come anywhere close to landing as many people in the hospital or killing as many people as the flu. But I assure you that in the comments of nearly every facebook post you see on the Wuhan virus, someone will be asking about why a vaccine hasn't been found yet or some effective way to treat/prevent it.
The Wuhan virus makes a better story so it will be fed to everyone through the media and stoke paranoia about a worldwide, killer epidemic that has a one in a million chance of actually materializing. Meanwhile, people are dying in ICUs all across this country of "just the flu" on a daily basis and you may catch a blurb about it when you are skimming CNN
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
The difference is that it’s the fucking flu. People die from the flu every year. It’s not uncommon.
Something like SARS or this Virus were unknown at the time. No one knows how dangerous they are because they are mutated versions of the same virus found in multiple animals.
In order to prevent it from spreading and then possibly killing large number of people they have to promote it. I don’t care, they need to be overly cautious because of the unknownZ
The flu comes every year kills people every year and people are dumb about getting the shot. Rinse repeat it will happen again next year.
The fact of the matter is that the chance of any of these diseases (SARS, Ebola, now Wuhan Coronoavirus) ever becoming a worldwide killer epidemic is nearly null. The CDC gets flak for being a bloated bureaucratic government agency, but they are really very good at what they do (and all developed nations have their equivalent). Remember when Ebola was going to wipe out the entire southern US when that patient arrived on the plane from West Africa? Or SARS or MERS...the list goes on
Barring some horrific doomsday scenario, none of these diseases will every reach the global-killer status they are branded with. And that isn't because CNN and the New York Times do such a great job raising awareness.
These bugs make better stories than "the fucking flu", which is why you will hear and read about them for the next couple of months. It's not because it poses a greater threat to humanity than the flu, or measles or such...but because it will attract more attention and more readers and listeners than an "everyday disease"
I mean that’s really the point isn’t it? Not so much of the relative scariness of exotic viruses versus the flu (which is actually way more exotic than those other one; if mutation is your lynchpin, nothing mutates more than the flu virus), but the fact the people get scared by exotic viruses while stupidly straddling the edge of suicide by not doing something very simple to prevent flu infection. You can do something about the flu; you can only hide under your bed to escape from SARS
The 2003-2004 flu season saw more than 48,000 people die from flu
The average Americans fear is misplaced....
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
I remember when the H1n1 pandemic and they made a vaccine for it. Employees that refused the flu vaccine we’re lining up to get the H1n1. All media driven.
I get mine in August every year.
The 2003-2004 flu season saw more than 48,000 people die from flu
The average Americans fear is misplaced....
I guess you should take it up with the CDC or WHO. They want to control the spread of these exotic diseases that pop up and we have no idea how deadly they can be. They just want to prevent it from spreading. The flu is around every year and yes it kills, but the idiots out there refuse to get vaccinated. He’ll MMR is coming back because of anti-vaxers.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/01/16/11-year-old-boy-dies-of-flu-despite-getting-vaccine/amp/
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During the outbreak and there were zero deaths
The 2003-2004 flu season saw more than 48,000 people die from flu
The average Americans fear is misplaced....
I guess you should take it up with the CDC or WHO. They want to control the spread of these exotic diseases that pop up and we have no idea how deadly they can be. They just want to prevent it from spreading. The flu is around every year and yes it kills, but the idiots out there refuse to get vaccinated. He’ll MMR is coming back because of anti-vaxers.
The same WHO that has declared that this virus is not an international emergency?
And even if the flu shot is ineffective it's still nice to make your immune system perk up plus you get a $5 Target gift card. What's the harm.
I've been preparing for this day all my life.
--Every doomsday prepper
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In comment 14791608 redbeard said:
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Meanwhile over 6000 people have been killed by the flu in the US this year and I still have to fight with half my patients to get a shot. Hell...it’s only January so we’ve got months to go and that number is gonna sky rocket as we get into the depths of the season
I always find the selective paranoia/outrage from things like this, SARS, Ebola, etc fascinating. The average persons chance to ever run into one of these diseases is minuscule, yet we’ve all probably interacted with someone exposed to influenza within the past few weeks and a large proportion of the population refuses to take the most basics defense against it
Rant over....
my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
The chances of coming into contact with a SARS-infected person are minuscule. The opposite is true for flu. So, those percentages are misleading when making an argument about what you should fear. The reality is that in this country thousands and maybe even tens of thousands of people will (unnecessarily) die because of flu. It’s highly unlikely, although not impossible, that even one person will die because of SARS over here (or Ebola or 2109-nCov)
if the question is why does flu not get press but these new viruses do the is simply what i said. you know NOW that SARS was contained widely and did not spread, you did not know that would happen when it first broke. you don't know how much this is spread already. we generally know how the flu works and the type of people most susceptible to it. we didn't even know this could spread human human at the start of this week. people dying from a mystery illness at a high rate is going to be news. you need to accept this. it doesn't mean you need to change your life or act all scared. i'm constantly perplexed who takes things like this personally. this won't affect anything at all for me because i don't have plans to travel to asia this month or next. but i'm glad people are monitoring it so i can be informed in case new information does need to be disseminated quickly and with credibility. in fact, i'll probably get chinese for lunch, great roast pork belly place by me i haven't been to in a long time.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
The Flu epidemic in 1919 had a higher mortality rate than SARS.
And that 10% mortality is mostly confined to China. The mortality rate in the US and the UK was zero for SARS. I think Canada had one death of a Chinese national.
Even if this isn't the virus that's going to wipe out a billion people it follows the same pattern of one that might. A virus jumps from animals to humans somewhere in China and before authorities are on top of it, it's already spread around the world.
Also learning about wet markets that sell donkeys, sheep, pigs, foxes, badgers, bamboo rats, hedgehogs, and snakes is fascinating.
All of it piques ones interest more than another story about the flu.
When I returned home from that trip, I was sick for a week, but it was just an old-fashioned cold.
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my understanding is difference of mortality % as well as unknown vectors for spreading.
SARS was 10% mortality. Flu is less than 0.1%.
[
The Flu epidemic in 1919 had a higher mortality rate than SARS.
And that 10% mortality is mostly confined to China. The mortality rate in the US and the UK was zero for SARS. I think Canada had one death of a Chinese national.
ok, and? are you arguing against what i said being the reasons why it gets new coverage? my guess is the flu in 1919 got a lot more coverage in the papers than this. and i have no idea what the mortality in the US was, and it's irrelevant to the question of why an emerging outbreak of an unknown with virus coupled with a global traveling population would be concerned about it spreading.
if you want to add the reason that it's the press and they sensationalize things then great. you didn't say that, you didn't make a point at all actually, but that's the only other point to be made. and it's baked in when talking about the press.
meanwhile, i'll point out the press didn't start this thread. someone this board did :)
I was pointing out that using mortality rates to indicate something is dangerous isn't the best indicator.
I also think the coverage of the virus is over the top and spreads fear, but that's par for the course with media today - they need to report something and sensationalize it.
As a comedian once said, "The nightly newscasts starts out with "Good Evening" and then spends the next 30 minutes telling you exactly why it isn't".
But BBI has done the analysis and determined this is not the one. So rest easy.
But BBI has done the analysis and determined this is not the one. So rest easy.
WHO has declared that this is not an international emergency. The CDC released a summary yesterday stating “the immediate health risk to the general American population is considered low at this time”
The main point I’m making is not that this isn’t a situation to be monitored (it most certainly is). My point is that I never cease to be amazed about the fear and paranoia of these things in the America public when there are actual killer diseases that the average Joe is infinitely more likely to run into and yet a large swath of the population refuses to take even the most basic steps against it.
It’s an interesting social observation at the bare minimum
I can't speak for all in the medical community but I know among colleagues I've spoken to it is perplexing at best and depressing at worst.
My son is in epidemiology and last year worked for NYS. He feels the same way about what gets attention and what doesn't. Even policy makers who should know better because if their media savvy are prone to it.
BTW can you guess where he spent all his time last year? That's right rockland county. Dealing with measles because people there had refused to be inoculated. We're not all living in the 21st century.
I've been preparing for this day all my life.
--Every doomsday prepper
Just for that, I'm not going to share my freeze dried food with you!
What's even worse is that politicians cave to them. Within the last month, NJ totally took the coward's way out in caving to the nuts about ending religious exemptions.
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Steer clear of bat soup til this blows over.
Snake soup.
Duck Soup is more fun.
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
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I think this time it is different
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Possible cases in New York Now.
The post had a video from someone inside the hospital in China and there are dead bodies all over the place. They think China is under reporting the death rate right now.
President Xi said the virus is "accelerating" and says the situation is China is "grave"...
I wonder what the lead time would be on our part if we had to do something similar. I've seen what the Army CoE can do in a hurry, but not sure what level of emergency we'd have to hit first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=UtW9Inha82s&feature=emb_logo - ( New Window )
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In comment 14792941 giantfan2000 said:
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I think this time it is different
China coronavirus: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals - ( New Window )
I just watched the movie "Contagion", too. And I was thinking how lucky the world has been to avoid a worldwide epidemic... ;)
Possible cases in New York Now.
The post had a video from someone inside the hospital in China and there are dead bodies all over the place. They think China is under reporting the death rate right now.
Take it fwiw....I know for a fact that, as of yesterday noon, a total of three specimens had been tested for 2019-nCoV in New York and that all three were negative.
I wonder what the lead time would be on our part if we had to do something similar. I've seen what the Army CoE can do in a hurry, but not sure what level of emergency we'd have to hit first. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=UtW9Inha82s&feature=emb_logo - ( New Window )
The mass amount of workers China can mobilize has always impressed me. Our production plant in Shenzhen was going to be visited by the CEO and the building didn't have an elevator. The chinese manager thought this would look unfavorably, so he organized a construction group to install an elevator and had a week to do it.
They got it done with a couple hundred people there 24/7.
Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, but that's the worrisome part even for us here. It's not just direct contact between the US and Wuhan (or China), it's how many carriers of the disease may have gone to other locations and then off to the US (or in contact with US citizens).
I'm not exactly panicking (even though I live a stone's throw away from NYC's largest Chinese neighborhood). But given the disease's 10 day incubation period before symptoms manifest, I wouldn't be surprised if this one spread out quite a bit before it's brought under control. I guess the next week would be critical.
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Thailand is a different story, though. Ten flights per day from Wuhan landed in Bangkok until service was suspended a few days ago. Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, but that's the worrisome part even for us here. It's not just direct contact between the US and Wuhan (or China), it's how many carriers of the disease may have gone to other locations and then off to the US (or in contact with US citizens).
I'm not exactly panicking (even though I live a stone's throw away from NYC's largest Chinese neighborhood). But given the disease's 10 day incubation period before symptoms manifest, I wouldn't be surprised if this one spread out quite a bit before it's brought under control. I guess the next week would be critical.
I'm guessing the opposite. That this gets quashed quickly and truly spreads (outside of the Wuhan area) poorly and that the major ramifications will only be felt in someone's 401K.
I am not totally sure about person to person transmission. SO far, it seems like those on the receiving end are in very close contact (family members, health care providers).
Tensions are a little high here, with almost everyone in the Chinatown area of 8th ave in Brooklyn walking around with medical masks.
Because of the fear/hype/legit concern or because all of the traders are infected?
My guess is that it's China's exuberant response to being in the spotlight and the impact of clamping down on the country on their businesses.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
sounds like twice you were stuck with an overflowing pantry:)
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
I'm guessing the opposite. That this gets quashed quickly and truly spreads (outside of the Wuhan area) poorly and that the major ramifications will only be felt in someone's 401K.
I am not totally sure about person to person transmission. SO far, it seems like those on the receiving end are in very close contact (family members, health care providers).
This is one occasion where I'm rooting for you to be right. And you're due... ;)
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...my wife has worked for a hospital network for 12 years, and twice we've received Pandemic alerts that advised us to stock up on 3 weeks worth of food.
Major supply chain disruptions are inevitable if/when a big one hits.
Load up on the lentils, folks.
sounds like twice you were stuck with an overflowing pantry:)
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
That's actually normal and sort of play's into the initial comments in this thread about the Flu being given the short shrift.
Last season, my son's HS had the flu sweep through it at this time. They couldn't even field enough kids to run a full offense on defense for lacrosse for the first week of practice. We had one team forfeit two days before a game because the flu hit them.
I think last year, 20+ people died in SC because of the flu. That will likely be 20 more than who will die of this virus in SC....
Today, half our managerial staff and multiple workers are out sick, including a few who are NEVER sick.
My son's High School had 160 kids out in one day last week. Pushed off the schools midterm schedule by a week.
A bunch of people having bad colds during the peak of flu season is definitely cause for alarm.
I mean, big bucket of Costco Mac and Cheese cause for alarm.
Not to play the ole correlation/causation thing over, but I'd keep an eye out on the stats for the expiration date of these buckets and spikes in diarrhea as well.
I am in the health care space and we follow this closely as it determines seasonality in our cost of care projections (I do risk management), and how we report up to Wall St.
FLU Season - ( New Window )
Just saw a report that it is very likely that this arose form bats (I mentioned this earlier). There's about a 97% genetic identity to a bat coronavirus and a simililar identity to SARS. SARS was originally a bat virus that moved to civet cats and then to humans.
Prevailing theory is that 2019-nCoV also moved from bats to some other animal...one report argues that this, like SARS, is a consequence of eating bushmeat/exotic animals. That's possible...I heard snake last week...but it could also be bats shitting on pig feed or something like that. Then, a single mutation likely caused a jump from the animal into humans.
Sounds like the initial many cases were animal to human which effectively seeded a population of transmitters and now it's human to human. The report I saw suggested that the numbers are actually much higher but not reported due to low symptoms.
Fascinating to watch but I still believe that the biggest danger for Americans is economical (and that could be huge) rather than medical.
Hey, you stole that from the plot of Contagion!
Fascinating to watch but I still believe that the biggest danger for Americans is economical (and that could be huge) rather than medical.
So you're saying move more into cash for at least the short term? ;)
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's the go-to for the conspiracy community. Everything, from Ebola to SARS to Lyme disease was apparently started in a lab somewhere.
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's usually how it works, right? the Aged, infants, stressed, and otherwise sick all have diminished immunity and are always the most prone to the worst outcome.
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their incredibly spicy chicken dishes.
I wonder what other factors are at play here - the mortality rate seemed high by it seemed from the handful of cases I saw listed out there were other circumstances, like age and stress (the one doctor who died was 62 and apparently working around the clock when he contracted the virus). I'm sure some of the early victims may not have received prompt or thorough medical care either.
That's usually how it works, right? the Aged, infants, stressed, and otherwise sick all have diminished immunity and are always the most prone to the worst outcome.
From reading stuff: Regular seasonal influenza kills less than 1%. Wuhan virus is killing about 2.8% (but the data is limited and weak). SARS killed about 9.6% and MERS 34.4% over the last 20 years. Big issues: communicability and how long it takes for symptoms to become evident (up to 14 days), if there are any, in the case of the Wuhan virus. Thus we can't effectively screen for it. People older than 50 are the most vulnerable.