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From Reddit: Most Wins by QB w Bottom 16 Defense 1970-2016

PaulBlakeTSU : 1/24/2020 6:45 pm
Saw this on Twitter and thought it was interesting.



If the chart is accurate, then Eli retired with 74 Regular season wins in this category.
trying image again  
PaulBlakeTSU : 1/24/2020 6:47 pm : link
Wow..  
Tom from LI : 1/24/2020 6:55 pm : link
That is crazy
Well this should go a long way  
Giant John : 1/24/2020 6:56 pm : link
In settling the HOF discussion.
Holy Crap!  
Klaatu : 1/24/2020 7:02 pm : link
Talk about overcoming adversity.
Great stat  
Jimmy Googs : 1/24/2020 7:07 pm : link
.
Add to it  
Reale01 : 1/24/2020 7:23 pm : link
All the others at the top of the list played for teams that had dynamic playmakers on offense and in many cases emphasized offense. The Giants were always built on running the football and playing defense - they just were not good at it.
This is a great chart...  
Stev7 : 1/24/2020 7:25 pm : link
if accurate. Very interesting, though not the fault of some of these QB's that they played with good D's. Still, puts Eli in a good light.
.  
Bill2 : 1/24/2020 7:27 pm : link
That be one of them Analytics!

great find Paul

( and good to see you posting!)
Interesting stat  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/24/2020 7:37 pm : link
but you need better context imo. How many times did Montona have a defense ranked 15th or later. Same with Bradshaw, etc....hence the number would be lower.

Eli played with a really poor cast the last seven years. The cleansing of the players shows the Giants saw what others knew for years.
Love this  
BSIMatt : 1/24/2020 7:43 pm : link
Thanks for sharing.
Just wow  
SGMen : 1/24/2020 7:55 pm : link
This is quite telling.
RE: Interesting stat  
PaulBlakeTSU : 1/24/2020 7:57 pm : link
In comment 14793004 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
but you need better context imo. How many times did Montona have a defense ranked 15th or later. Same with Bradshaw, etc....hence the number would be lower.

Eli played with a really poor cast the last seven years. The cleansing of the players shows the Giants saw what others knew for years.


Of course. I don't think the take away was that Eli was more capable than Montana or Brad, et al, at winning with bad defenses.

Rather, I think it reflects just how much of his career he played with below average defenses. Of course, one must consider that terrible QB outings will contribute to defenses giving up more poonts
Will this change the dim bulbs narrative on  
JCin332 : 1/24/2020 8:01 pm : link
here the losing was all his fault the last 7 years...?

Nah probably not...
I’m counting 75 regular season wins  
BUgiantfan : 1/24/2020 8:12 pm : link
This chart is as of 12/19/16. We won one more that season, 3 the following season, 5 in 2018, and one for Eli in 2019.
Never mind.  
BUgiantfan : 1/24/2020 8:14 pm : link
We had a good defense in 2016. 74 is the correct count.
Good find Paul  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 1/24/2020 8:15 pm : link
!
Nobody sees a problem with this stat?  
BlueLou'sBack : 1/24/2020 8:18 pm : link
It's completely meaningless without a baseline.

OK, who understands what that means?

Or what sort of baseline is needed to make this stat meaningful?

Paul you know what I mean I'm sure...
Nevermind...  
BlueLou'sBack : 1/24/2020 8:22 pm : link
I missed Paul's exchange with Lines of Scrimmage.

And yes Paul what it does point out is that Eli played with some pretty awful to mediocre defenses over the years.

But the 8 playoff wine were pretty much all garnered with the defense function much more like a top 10 unit than a bottom half. Even more like a top quartile unit or better.
Thank you  
ATL_Giants : 1/24/2020 8:28 pm : link
 
RE: Nevermind...  
BUgiantfan : 1/24/2020 8:29 pm : link
In comment 14793084 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
I missed Paul's exchange with Lines of Scrimmage.

And yes Paul what it does point out is that Eli played with some pretty awful to mediocre defenses over the years.

But the 8 playoff wine were pretty much all garnered with the defense function much more like a top 10 unit than a bottom half. Even more like a top quartile unit or better.


I’ll give you 2007 on this point but keep in mind- when we lost that year, we lost in spectacular fashion.

In 2011, that defense really did stink. I would attribute their success more to luck than anything else. We won a LOT of games that year because the opposing QB missed a wide open WR at the end of the game. This happened in the superbowl. Brady missed a WR with nobody around him. If he completed that pass, they likely would have won the game.
Is there an updated version of that chart?  
Mike from SI : 1/24/2020 8:36 pm : link
Would love to see it.
RE: RE: Nevermind...  
BlueLou'sBack : 1/24/2020 9:04 pm : link
In comment 14793096 BUgiantfan said:
Quote:
In comment 14793084 BlueLou'sBack said:


Quote:


I missed Paul's exchange with Lines of Scrimmage.

And yes Paul what it does point out is that Eli played with some pretty awful to mediocre defenses over the years.

But the 8 playoff wine were pretty much all garnered with the defense function much more like a top 10 unit than a bottom half. Even more like a top quartile unit or better.



I’ll give you 2007 on this point but keep in mind- when we lost that year, we lost in spectacular fashion.

In 2011, that defense really did stink. I would attribute their success more to luck than anything else. We won a LOT of games that year because the opposing QB missed a wide open WR at the end of the game. This happened in the superbowl. Brady missed a WR with nobody around him. If he completed that pass, they likely would have won the game.


The 2011 defense stunk? I didn't care for Perry Fewell's schemes but you maybe should look at the roster again before you say "stink" again.

The first victory of that playoff run, vs Atlanta IIRC, featured at least two badass short yardage stops with Linval Joseph, Chris Canty, Rocky Bernard, JPP, Tuck etc on the DL. Not to mention Kiwi, Osi, (well one of those two were hurt IIRC, but not the other.)

Chase Blackburn played way over his head during those playoffs, and Michael Boley was a very good weak side OLB. We had pretty good DBs then too.

Our D was good throughout those playoffs, even if luck also played a factor.
Good stuff, thanks for posting!  
trueblueinpw : 1/24/2020 9:52 pm : link
I get so pissed when people say Eli’s not a great and obvious HoF QB. The streak, the TWO Supes and playoff runs, played outside in Northeast weather... impeccable in all ways off the field in the worlds largest media market, never even once throwing anyone under the bus, just such an obviously great, great champion.

The greatest Giant of my lifetime.
good info Paul  
Dr. D : 1/24/2020 10:11 pm : link
If I'm not mistaken, Eli added 9 wins to this list since '16 to move into 2nd (74) behind Peyton.

Very interesting!
RE: RE: RE: Nevermind...  
WillVAB : 1/24/2020 10:22 pm : link
In comment 14793149 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14793096 BUgiantfan said:


Quote:


In comment 14793084 BlueLou'sBack said:


Quote:


I missed Paul's exchange with Lines of Scrimmage.

And yes Paul what it does point out is that Eli played with some pretty awful to mediocre defenses over the years.

But the 8 playoff wine were pretty much all garnered with the defense function much more like a top 10 unit than a bottom half. Even more like a top quartile unit or better.



I’ll give you 2007 on this point but keep in mind- when we lost that year, we lost in spectacular fashion.

In 2011, that defense really did stink. I would attribute their success more to luck than anything else. We won a LOT of games that year because the opposing QB missed a wide open WR at the end of the game. This happened in the superbowl. Brady missed a WR with nobody around him. If he completed that pass, they likely would have won the game.



The 2011 defense stunk? I didn't care for Perry Fewell's schemes but you maybe should look at the roster again before you say "stink" again.

The first victory of that playoff run, vs Atlanta IIRC, featured at least two badass short yardage stops with Linval Joseph, Chris Canty, Rocky Bernard, JPP, Tuck etc on the DL. Not to mention Kiwi, Osi, (well one of those two were hurt IIRC, but not the other.)

Chase Blackburn played way over his head during those playoffs, and Michael Boley was a very good weak side OLB. We had pretty good DBs then too.

Our D was good throughout those playoffs, even if luck also played a factor.


The 2011 defense did stink. They flipped a switch in the playoffs, but they were bad in the regular season.
Eli and Peyton dominated this stat in the preseason column  
steve in ky : 1/24/2020 10:33 pm : link
.
RE: Well this should go a long way  
Del Shofner : 1/24/2020 11:21 pm : link
In comment 14792947 Giant John said:
Quote:
In settling the HOF discussion.


This.
RE: RE: Well this should go a long way  
montanagiant : 1/24/2020 11:30 pm : link
In comment 14793253 Del Shofner said:
Quote:
In comment 14792947 Giant John said:


Quote:


In settling the HOF discussion.



This.

Yup...X2
.  
Danny Kanell : 1/25/2020 7:21 am : link
This should be stickied so the beat writers that get all their content from refreshing BBI can run with this and get this out there for everyone to see.
Not to mention that the stud OLs that some of the  
ZogZerg : 1/25/2020 7:43 am : link
other QBs played with.

Peyton clearly had the worst talent on any of the stud QBs. That is why he is so great!
If you go back and relive  
KDubbs : 1/25/2020 8:38 am : link
Some of the losses from 2012 until now and see exactly how many games he left the field up only to have the D open their cheeks and lose, its heartbreaking. I counted like 18. If the d holds in just half those games his record argument is over. He'd be 126-108? And possibly a few more playoff games.
Marino  
XBRONX : 1/25/2020 9:11 am : link
had no defense and no running game.
would be interesting  
fkap : 1/25/2020 10:31 am : link
to see the W-L percentage and/or % of W with a bad D.

Not naysaying the stat, but a 17th ranked D is still middle of the pack, so a true analysis would have to bin additional categories (mediocre, bad, real bad, Giants bad as of late, etc)
RE: Marino  
OntheRoad : 1/25/2020 2:06 pm : link
In comment 14793360 XBRONX said:
Quote:
had no defense and no running game.


Neither did Dan Fouts.
RE: Will this change the dim bulbs narrative on  
Jimmy Googs : 1/25/2020 2:40 pm : link
In comment 14793046 JCin332 said:
Quote:
here the losing was all his fault the last 7 years...?

Nah probably not...


Well since basically nobody on here says it was only his fault, I think the dim bulb is you...
ALL his fault is over the top  
fkap : 1/25/2020 3:13 pm : link
but there was a very vocal crowd that was insisting Eli was a large part of the losing.
These stats  
pjcas18 : 1/25/2020 3:39 pm : link
are stupid.

In the 2011 playoffs the Giants defense allowed 14 PPG, #1 in the playoffs.

3 PPG better than the Patriots defense.

In the 2007 playoffs the Giants defense allowed 16.2 PPG, #1 in the playoffs.

Slightly better than the Patriots.

People use wins as a QB metric FAR too often and it's got to stop.
RE: These stats  
PaulBlakeTSU : 1/25/2020 3:45 pm : link
In comment 14793598 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
are stupid.

In the 2011 playoffs the Giants defense allowed 14 PPG, #1 in the playoffs.

3 PPG better than the Patriots defense.

In the 2007 playoffs the Giants defense allowed 16.2 PPG, #1 in the playoffs.

Slightly better than the Patriots.

People use wins as a QB metric FAR too often and it's got to stop.


THis chart speaks to that, though. People use wins way too much to evaluate a QB-- by showing how many wins Eli has with a bottom-half defense indicates just how many games Eli has played with a bottom-half defense.

Eli had 74 wins with a bottom half defense, meaning he only had 43 wins with a top-half defense.

This chart further supports why his 117-117 reflects the quality of his team/defense rather than the quality of his play.
Thanks Paul.  
Big Blue '56 : 1/25/2020 3:49 pm : link
You oft times provide us with unique perspectives. Much appreciated and MOST welcome.
But the chart  
pjcas18 : 1/25/2020 3:50 pm : link
matches bottom half regular season defense with playoff wins.

I gave you the examples above with 2007 and 2011.

Both years the Giants had the #1 defense in the playoffs in terms of points, but they credit Eli with 8 wins while having a bottom half regular season D.

Do you not see the misalignment of relevance and credit?

I'm not suggesting even for a second Eli didn't contribute to the 8 playoff wins, of course he did, I am saying however that having a bottom half scoring D in the regular season meant nothing. The defense was lights out in the playoffs.

If you want to look at his regular seasons wins in that scenario (bottom half scoring D) and feel like that's impressive then fine. But like I said, QB's are given too much credit and blame for team wins or losses.

RE: ALL his fault is over the top  
Jimmy Googs : 1/26/2020 7:13 am : link
In comment 14793589 fkap said:
Quote:
but there was a very vocal crowd that was insisting Eli was a large part of the losing.


Yes there was. And for several years there, they were correct...
RE: RE: ALL his fault is over the top  
JCin332 : 1/26/2020 8:17 am : link
In comment 14793893 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
In comment 14793589 fkap said:


Quote:


but there was a very vocal crowd that was insisting Eli was a large part of the losing.



Yes there was. And for several years there, they were correct...


That's your opinion congrats but no offense you don't have a clue...and the table above by the OP basically proves a point that many of us have been making...

And that is no QB can win with no defense and running game which was the Giants scenario for the last 7 years...
Yeah I kinda’ do  
Jimmy Googs : 1/26/2020 8:21 am : link
and you’re debating a different point...
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