Matthew Stafford Trade Rumors: Writer Hints at Huge Lions Move
Heavy "The Detroit Lions could have a big decision to make as it relates to what to do with Matthew Stafford, and that decision might not be that cut and dry according to some. As rumors have persisted, could the team move on from Stafford this offseason and look to deal him...."
This could make a big draft difference.
What would eb a dynamic shift to this Draft woulld be a credible report that the Redskins have decided to shop the #2 pick. I don't expect that to happen though.
This isn't dead cap. It's on top of his current cap number.
They have ~49 mil in cap space. Don't know how many need to be re-signed.
I've argued they were stuck with him this year, but if they do it now, draft picks in return might be worth 4.2 mil.
This would mean anyone who wants to jump them have to deal with Washington, or Detroit has to swap with them.
Leaving us with Chase Young. I like that scenario!
Would Washington give up the best player in the draft?
If Young falls to us I think we run to the podium even over an LT.
I could see that, but at the end of the day it's all about wins and losses. Look at Shurmur and DJ.
Stafford's back isn't going to get any better with age, and with players retiring earlier than in years past because of awareness of their health and managing their money better (not to mention Stafford's wife had her own health scare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford play this last year and walk away.
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I can see Miami trading up with Washington. Miami takes Tua. Detroit then takes Herbert.
Would Washington give up the best player in the draft?
If Young falls to us I think we run to the podium even over an LT.
For multiple firsts? I would.
But Chase Young baby!
But don't hold your breath for it to happen.
As an aside I hope we aren't seriously considering any of these OT's at #4. None of them have the high ceiling, high floor and body of work on the field to warrant it. Wills is the safest and comes closest and Bechton has the high ceiling but #4 is rare air for a prospect and these guys would all need oxygen to sniff it.
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I can see Miami trading up with Washington. Miami takes Tua. Detroit then takes Herbert.
Would Washington give up the best player in the draft?
If Young falls to us I think we run to the podium even over an LT.
Also, Sy made a comment that they could choose Simmons. So, if they truly like him that much how do they not do it? They'll get him at 5 and pick up at least another first.
Yeah I don’t buy it either. Maybe a little if it was for Burrow but nothing would be more Detroit than doing this for Tua.
While I agree with you, I am going off Sy's comment as well as the fact that they'd get premium picks out of it.
Exactly
Different scenario. One, there aren't rumors 9f us liking Simmons as much as Young. Two, the compensation wouldn't be as great as what Washington would have gotten. And do we have a guy rated similarly that we can guarantee we get then, yes, it becomes a conversation. But in your scenario, yes, I would take Young. Again, we aren't talking about my personal preference. We are talking about something that is possible.
If all the QBs are gone, why would anyone offer a "haul" to move up...?
To Answer the question: take Young...
Again, I am going by what Sy has said. Why is this so difficult to understand?
That’s the fantasy. In the end, I think Washington resists the potential haul via trade in favor for the best player in the draft.
Why are you being a dick? Do you think I made that up about Sy? He said don't be surprised if Washington took Simmons over Young. You need to understand the difference between something being possible and something being likely.
The just hired a defensive oriented HC with chops and weight based on a record of success, and his success was largely tied to a dominant DL.
Rivera might blow his top if Snyder dictates accepting a trade offer.
That's pure speculation but it makes logical sense.
2) Washington selects Chase Young
3) The fun begins as somebody offers a bundle for Herbert or Tua.
No other QB compares with those top 3 IMO.
I’d still take Simmons over him
That’s a face cut, not if he’s traded.
Looks like 20mil dead cap for a trade
But to repeat myself. It isn't Simmons over Young. That is what Sy said. He said don't be shocked if thay happens with Washington. So, now look at the big picture. It isn't Simmons over Young. It is Simmons and multiple picks over Young. Big difference.
I think it is possible that you have an incomplete understanding of how this works.
Trading him would accelerate guarantees ($32 M) but would eliminate $21.3M which means they would be losing $10.7M in cap space for a player not on their roster.
Dont get me wrong, that hurts but it isnt $32M, which wouldve been insurmountable. It also frees up a lot of money after this year.
Then they probably wouldn't have hired him in the first place.
You are missing the point. Holy shit. If Washington likes Simmons as much or even close enough you take the deal. If Young is that much better than Simmons then you don't. Not that hard to understand.
This year it would cost them $10.7M in cap space.
If they wait until next year it saves them $14M.
However, I dont think they can count on having such good spot to take a QB in the top 5 next year.
Every team evaluate players differently. Your opinion may not be what others believe. Just stop being annoying.
Stafford 2021...21M dead cap
Until then I'll remain bullish that Young is a near certainty to the Redskins at #2.
Stafford 2021...21M dead cap
This is incomplete.
This year it costs them $10.7M
If they wait until next year it saves them $14M
Until then I'll remain bullish that Young is a near certainty to the Redskins at #2.
And you cherry pick sentences or phrases. You have no idea what the grade is on both nor do you know the compensation of picks so having a definitive opinion one way or the other is just ridiculous. Also, what kind of defense is Rivera known for? He needs his Kuechly. If he wants to find his Kuechly then Simmons makes a ton of sense. These coverage LBs are more rare than pass rushers. So, no it wouldn't surprise if they did this one bit.
So, before you go and cherry pick another phrase, I agree Young is much better than Simmons but that doesn't mean Washington thinks the same or doesn't see a guy like Simmons as a rare type of player that it would make sense to take him and acquire more picks to help build up their OL.
The dead cap represents accelerated guaranteed money but they also save money on salary. The net loss or gain is how it affects the cap.
For example if we release Ogletree there is a dead cap of $3.5M but his cap hit if we kept him when would cost $11.75M. The difference represents the cap savings or cost for that year.
So even though Ogletree has dead cap we actually save $8.25M against the cap if we cut him
For Stafford it would actually COST the Lions $10.7M this year and save them $33M next year.
If they wait until next year it will SAVE them $14M.
As far as 'cherry picking' I just take a tag line from a post to put in the heading to reference it so we're on the same page. I consider the complete passage when commenting.
As far as Kuechly I loved his game. Their games are much different in that Kuechly was an at the LoS tackling machine. I don't think he ever had less than 130 and that was in a down year for him once. No one expects that playstyle or tackling volume from Simmons. In his last two 15 game seasons he had 53 and 67 tackles. So no I don't think Rivera will see Simmons in that vein nor would that somehow make him a better prospect compared to Young in his eyes.
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I posted on another thread to absolutely no response: what if Ron Rivera is not sold on Dwayne Haksins as his quarterback?
I doubt he would have gotten the job then. The owner picked the QB. The last HC is gone in part because he didn't fully embrace the QB as a savior.
He also knows defense wins, in my opinion it's a lock they draft Chase Young. Any draft intrigue begins with the Lions.
KC model here is quite possible. Get a year to further evaluate both Stafford and possibly Tua (or Herbert).
Trade Staff a year later when ramifications are not as bad.
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cap savings vs dead cap are different animals. Detroit will have $32M in dead cap space for 2019 if they deal Stafford.
The dead cap represents accelerated guaranteed money but they also save money on salary. The net loss or gain is how it affects the cap.
For example if we release Ogletree there is a dead cap of $3.5M but his cap hit if we kept him when would cost $11.75M. The difference represents the cap savings or cost for that year.
So even though Ogletree has dead cap we actually save $8.25M against the cap if we cut him
For Stafford it would actually COST the Lions $10.7M this year and save them $33M next year.
If they wait until next year it will SAVE them $14M.
Ogletree based on these numbers vs value of keeping him almost definitely gone.
Solder has publicly said he'd take a paycut to stay. Since he is 'only' a 6.5 mill savings vs 13 mill dead money . If he takes a cut of 6.5 mill or more he becomes a wash to stay. But he becomes either your RT , backup or temporary placeholder until another guy is ready.
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Moving on from Stafford makes very little sense, unless Patricia gets some vote of confidence to do so and start rebuilding with a new QB. However, if they did trade Stafford before the draft, Washington sitting at #2 could demand a ransom from any team drafting #5 or later that was hoping to get either Tua or Herbert. They would just have to get a haul knowing they would essentially be handing Young to the Giants at #4.
KC model here is quite possible. Get a year to further evaluate both Stafford and possibly Tua (or Herbert).
Trade Staff a year later when ramifications are not as bad.
Except the Lions coach Patricia is on the hot seat, he needs an impact starter at #3, he can't afford to draft a QB who ends up holding a clipboard for the upcoming season.
Stafford's back isn't going to get any better with age, and with players retiring earlier than in years past because of awareness of their health and managing their money better (not to mention Stafford's wife had her own health scare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford play this last year and walk away.
Or is this the Lions Kerry Collins moment? Meaning they have a QB who is good enough, but they believe that there is some one better available who can put them over the top and they can’t pass the opportunity up.
Either way it’s the same outcome.
Stafford's back isn't going to get any better with age, and with players retiring earlier than in years past because of awareness of their health and managing their money better (not to mention Stafford's wife had her own health scare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford play this last year and walk away.
Quite possibly. I don't see the Lions cutting Stafford. As others have said, the cap hit would be enormous, and he gives them the best chance to win in 2020. But drafting a QB at #3 is a good compromise. As you note, who knows when they will be in position to do so again, at least not without surrendering a ton of draft picks in an enormous trade like the Eagles and Rams did with Wentz and Goff. If they do so, it would be similar to what the Giants did with Jones and Manning. They kept Manning even though his cap hit was very large. The problem is that there may not be a QB worth drafting at #3.
Don is right keeping him costs 23.2M, trading him would cost them 32M.
This is not the year to trade him. He's had major back concerns this year, it would be selling low.
Doesn't mean Detroit isn't in the market for a QB. They could let him repair his value while a rookie learns and then trade him, with a very attractive contract.
I'd bet it's Burrow, Young, Herbert, ?, Tua and no trades up top.
As far as 'cherry picking' I just take a tag line from a post to put in the heading to reference it so we're on the same page. I consider the complete passage when commenting.
As far as Kuechly I loved his game. Their games are much different in that Kuechly was an at the LoS tackling machine. I don't think he ever had less than 130 and that was in a down year for him once. No one expects that playstyle or tackling volume from Simmons. In his last two 15 game seasons he had 53 and 67 tackles. So no I don't think Rivera will see Simmons in that vein nor would that somehow make him a better prospect compared to Young in his eyes.
Yes, comparing most to Kuechly to anyone is not fair. Behind Urlacher I believe he is the best 4-3 MLB that could both cover and run and hit. But what I was saying is that if he views Simmons as a guy he can plug into that D then he'll be much more valuable to Washington than many might think hence not out of the realm of possibility they trade down with Miami.
Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now.
Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions.
The Lions are smart floating rumors maybe one of them prompts a someone to make them an offer & they get a haul.
If the Giants were smart they’d say we’re open for business with the #4 pick and gather additional draft capital. The fact that there is really no consensus on the 3rd, 4th, 5th ... 10th best players screams trade down and get more picks.
DG doesn’t strike me as someone who knows how to maneuver in the draft - ie never trading down & the Williams trade. But ... I digress.
Also, this is why you need long term stability at the GM position. The logic that the Lions GM and coach will make a short term decision in a franchise altering situation should be frightening to Lions fans.
I feel the same about Gettleman. Mara, Abrams and Judge need to be all over Gettleman Like a wet blanket in this situation.
Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now.
Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions.
I think this is mostly right. However, they will have Derrick Brown in the mix, too. They desperately need more help to generate pocket pressure. I think they had < 30 sacks last year...
Also, this is why you need long term stability at the GM position. The logic that the Lions GM and coach will make a short term decision in a franchise altering situation should be frightening to Lions fans.
I feel the same about Gettleman. Mara, Abrams and Judge need to be all over Gettleman Like a wet blanket in this situation.
Slay is 29 and entering the last year of his contract.
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It would take an Andrew Luck retirement situation for that to happen.
Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now.
Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions.
I think this is mostly right. However, they will have Derrick Brown in the mix, too. They desperately need more help to generate pocket pressure. I think they had < 30 sacks last year...
That’s a possibility as well.
My point is Detroit is not in the market for a QB unless there’s something really unusual going on behind the scenes with Stafford.
Don is right keeping him costs 23.2M, trading him would cost them 32M.
This is not the year to trade him. He's had major back concerns this year, it would be selling low.
Doesn't mean Detroit isn't in the market for a QB. They could let him repair his value while a rookie learns and then trade him, with a very attractive contract.
I'd bet it's Burrow, Young, Herbert, ?, Tua and no trades up top.
If it falls in that order, it would not be a bad thing. Keep in mind, if Philip Rivers goes, San Diego might be looking for Tua. The Dolphins may have something to say about that, trading up to #4. That still leaves the Giants with a Okudah and pick or picks at #5 or #6. When was the last time the Giants had a shut down corner?
Rivera seemed to have a lot of leverage in the coaching search this year.
Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.
The best realistic scenario is where the Giants trade down and use the picks to pick up an ER and fix the OL.
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Who writes this shit?
That’s a face cut, not if he’s traded.
Looks like 20mil dead cap for a trade
Good catch Ron. Who does write this......
Yep. That just about covers it. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely. Unfortunately yes.
The best realistic scenario is where the Giants trade down and use the picks to pick up an ER and fix the OL.
This. People over think these scenarios. Burrow and Young IMO are the two surest players by far IMO. People acting like they know exactly which kid will be an all pro are full of shit. It’s an educated guess and it’s not always even about talent.
OBJ looked like the steal of that draft. Right now not so much.
Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.
Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.
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don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.
Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.
Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.
For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?
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In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said:
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don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.
Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.
Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.
For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?
If the Skins pass via a trade down the Lions won’t. It’s going to take an extremely unlikely scenario for Young to be available at 4.
It would take something like a QB hungry team trading to 3 before the draft and the Skins trading out of 2 on draft night.
Unlikely? Sure, but possible.
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In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said:
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don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.
Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.
Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.
For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?
If it's so overwhelming possibly, but I highly doubt teams would offer that for a QB other than Burrow.
Cut him and draft Tua.
It’s such an obvious move. Take the dead space hit this year and be ready to compete in 2021 with Tua as qb
Cut him and draft Tua.
It’s such an obvious move. Take the dead space hit this year and be ready to compete in 2021 with Tua as qb
Does Patricia have the time to develop him though. Fans were already calling for him to be fired this past season. He's 9-22-1 in two seasons. Would seem to me he will want players that can contribute right away this season to save his job.
I'll guess it will be San Diego.
Cinci - Burrow
SD - Tua
Detroit - Herbert
NY G - Young
People here aren’t being realistic about Detroit’s approach to the draft. There’s close to 0% chance they’re seriously looking at QBs unless Stafford’s injury is retirement level shit.
Young was averaging close to 2 sacks a game before Michigan--who had one of the best o-lines in the country--decided to double and triple-team him on literally every single play (and then Wisconsin and Clemson copied that exact game plan).
Teams value pass rushers more than anything else besides QBs now and Chase Young is as good as they come, I don't know where this notion that "he's actually not that great" came from. We have long been saying he's in a class of his own in the 2020 draft, head and shoulders above any other prospect, and then all of a sudden he has 3 games without a sack and now it's like people think his stock is plummeting or something?
Think about it: he had 4 sacks and 5 TFL against that same Wisconsin team just a few weeks prior to the conf. championship... what do you think changed in the game he had 0 sacks? The game plan was designed to eliminate him and force the rest of Ohio St. to beat them, just as Michigan did.
I'd be shocked if he doesn't go the Skins at #2, unless they get a gigantic haul of an offer, and I don't see a team making that offer for Herbert nor Tua with his injury question marks. Burrow is one thing, Cinci is going to get some major offers, but I don't see the Skins getting those same types of massive offers (at least not one big enough to pass on Young).
Young was averaging close to 2 sacks a game before Michigan--who had one of the best o-lines in the country--decided to double and triple-team him on literally every single play (and then Wisconsin and Clemson copied that exact game plan).
Teams value pass rushers more than anything else besides QBs now and Chase Young is as good as they come, I don't know where this notion that "he's actually not that great" came from. We have long been saying he's in a class of his own in the 2020 draft, head and shoulders above any other prospect, and then all of a sudden he has 3 games without a sack and now it's like people think his stock is plummeting or something?
Think about it: he had 4 sacks and 5 TFL against that same Wisconsin team just a few weeks prior to the conf. championship... what do you think changed in the game he had 0 sacks? The game plan was designed to eliminate him and force the rest of Ohio St. to beat them, just as Michigan did.
I'd be shocked if he doesn't go the Skins at #2, unless they get a gigantic haul of an offer, and I don't see a team making that offer for Herbert nor Tua with his injury question marks. Burrow is one thing, Cinci is going to get some major offers, but I don't see the Skins getting those same types of massive offers (at least not one big enough to pass on Young).
I wouldnt call it zero but I wouldn't call it more than 20% either. Arguably 6 teams in top 12 want a QB. Do more than Burrow and Tua make the grade? Last year 4 guys were considered the best 2 went top 6 and the 3rd went 15th and the 4th second round. The year before 4 went top 10 but only 1 top 5. Could go either way. Tua has a ton of intangibles which is very important for the QB position but the medical flags. Herbert is too inconsistent for my liking but a ton of tools there and teams may think they can tailor a system to his strengths.
Perhaps the Giant's GM should take notes.
The draft will bring either an OT or a LB that will start day 1. The 2nd round pick could also be used at a position of need.
So do yourself a favor and look at the idea of adding 4 starters regardless of cost between FA and the first 2 round of the draft. Those positions are OLB/DE, LB, OT and C.
We all know those are the positions of need.
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First of all: with Tua's injury and Herbert being what he is as a prospect, I don't see this being a class of QBs that goes 1-2-3. Has that ever happened other than in 1999? I'm seriously asking because it sounds pretty unprecedented to me. I could maybe see them all going top 5, but not 1-2-3, and that's what we would need to get Chase Young.
Young was averaging close to 2 sacks a game before Michigan--who had one of the best o-lines in the country--decided to double and triple-team him on literally every single play (and then Wisconsin and Clemson copied that exact game plan).
Teams value pass rushers more than anything else besides QBs now and Chase Young is as good as they come, I don't know where this notion that "he's actually not that great" came from. We have long been saying he's in a class of his own in the 2020 draft, head and shoulders above any other prospect, and then all of a sudden he has 3 games without a sack and now it's like people think his stock is plummeting or something?
Think about it: he had 4 sacks and 5 TFL against that same Wisconsin team just a few weeks prior to the conf. championship... what do you think changed in the game he had 0 sacks? The game plan was designed to eliminate him and force the rest of Ohio St. to beat them, just as Michigan did.
I'd be shocked if he doesn't go the Skins at #2, unless they get a gigantic haul of an offer, and I don't see a team making that offer for Herbert nor Tua with his injury question marks. Burrow is one thing, Cinci is going to get some major offers, but I don't see the Skins getting those same types of massive offers (at least not one big enough to pass on Young).
I wouldnt call it zero but I wouldn't call it more than 20% either. Arguably 6 teams in top 12 want a QB. Do more than Burrow and Tua make the grade? Last year 4 guys were considered the best 2 went top 6 and the 3rd went 15th and the 4th second round. The year before 4 went top 10 but only 1 top 5. Could go either way. Tua has a ton of intangibles which is very important for the QB position but the medical flags. Herbert is too inconsistent for my liking but a ton of tools there and teams may think they can tailor a system to his strengths.
... But for the Giants to get Young, the QBs will have to get picked 1-2-3 (Burrow-Tua-Herbert) at the top of the draft. You're talking about "2 went top 6" in 2019 and "4 went top 10" in 2018, but these are far cries from a 1-2-3 QB draft. Again I don't know if we've ever seen that aside from 1999 draft (but I could be wrong). You're right I'm exaggerating when I say "zero chance" of course there's SOME chance out there, but between 20% (as you mentioned) and zero, I'd say the chances are closer to zero.
But you're right, technically the chances are non-zero... People have been talking about Tua as #1 overall pick for two years, so even with the injury I think SOME team is going to be convinced he's still "that" guy, and all it takes is one team to target him and trade up to #2. In that sense I think Tua has a better chance than Herbert of spurring a team to trade a haul and enough of one to deter the Skins from taking Young. But the thing is, even if that happens, then the LIONS will have Young fall right in their laps, and then we would ALSO need a team to trade enough of a haul for Herbert to deter the Lions from taking Young as well. So I think it's somewhat possible, but we're going to need a couple teams to fall completely in love with Tua and Herbert respectively to a point that they will EACH offer massive hauls that have to be worth more than Chase Young himself.