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Trade draft rumor that could change the draft.

mdthedream : 1/26/2020 11:25 am
Matthew Stafford Trade Rumors: Writer Hints at Huge Lions Move

Heavy "The Detroit Lions could have a big decision to make as it relates to what to do with Matthew Stafford, and that decision might not be that cut and dry according to some. As rumors have persisted, could the team move on from Stafford this offseason and look to deal him...."
This could make a big draft difference.
If this happens you hope it to be a team  
Pheonix Orion : 1/26/2020 11:30 am : link
Picking later in the draft. Otherwise it takes a prine trading partner for us out of the mix if we view only a slight trade down as the ideal scenario .
32M cap hit if they do...  
CromartiesKid21 : 1/26/2020 11:31 am : link
Who writes this shit?
You also have to consider this:  
Anakim : 1/26/2020 11:33 am : link
Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn are FIRMLY on the hot seat. If they don't do well next year, they're gone. That's why I don't think they go QB. They need to win now.
Many if not most of us believe a QB is going #3 overall...  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 11:34 am : link
whether it's to Detroit after trading Stafford or to someone moving up for Tua/Herbert it really doesn't change the scenarios just the team acquiring the QB.

What would eb a dynamic shift to this Draft woulld be a credible report that the Redskins have decided to shop the #2 pick. I don't expect that to happen though.
It’s better for the Giants if the Lions go QB  
Jay on the Island : 1/26/2020 11:34 am : link
Okudah would fall to the Giants.
If this happens  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 11:37 am : link
I can see Miami trading up with Washington. Miami takes Tua. Detroit then takes Herbert.
trading him  
fkap : 1/26/2020 11:39 am : link
would cost, at minimum, a 4.2 additional cap hit. there's a 6 mil roster bonus and a .5 mil workout bonus. If they trade before they kick in, it's 4.2 mil. After they kick in, it's a 10.7 mil additional.

This isn't dead cap. It's on top of his current cap number.

They have ~49 mil in cap space. Don't know how many need to be re-signed.

I've argued they were stuck with him this year, but if they do it now, draft picks in return might be worth 4.2 mil.

This would mean anyone who wants to jump them have to deal with Washington, or Detroit has to swap with them.
RE: If this happens  
Anakim : 1/26/2020 11:39 am : link
In comment 14794125 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
I can see Miami trading up with Washington. Miami takes Tua. Detroit then takes Herbert.


Leaving us with Chase Young. I like that scenario!
RE: If this happens  
Pheonix Orion : 1/26/2020 11:40 am : link
In comment 14794125 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
I can see Miami trading up with Washington. Miami takes Tua. Detroit then takes Herbert.


Would Washington give up the best player in the draft?

If Young falls to us I think we run to the podium even over an LT.
Anakim  
fkap : 1/26/2020 11:44 am : link
One could argue that thinking long term and going with a rookie buys Patricia/Quinn time. Going with Stafford and losing seals their fate.
I just don't see the Lions taking a QB  
Anakim : 1/26/2020 11:44 am : link
That admin. needs to win now. They can't afford to rest their fates on a rookie QB
'I can see Miami trading up with Washington.'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 11:45 am : link
I don't see the Redskins passing on Young for anything less than a massive overpay. So it's unlikely. Are they willing to part with #5, #18, #56, #70 and a 2nd Rounder or more from next years Draft? Because that is what it will take if the Redskins will even consider passing on Young.
RE: Anakim  
Anakim : 1/26/2020 11:46 am : link
In comment 14794131 fkap said:
Quote:
One could argue that thinking long term and going with a rookie buys Patricia/Quinn time. Going with Stafford and losing seals their fate.


I could see that, but at the end of the day it's all about wins and losses. Look at Shurmur and DJ.
I said it at the end of the season  
Matt in SGS : 1/26/2020 11:47 am : link
I think the Lions go the "Kansas City Model" and they will draft a QB at #3 to sit behind Stafford for the year and take over in 2021. You never know when you are drafting low enough to be in position to take a potential franchise QB and they should have one sitting there, especially if/when the Redskins take Chase Young.

Stafford's back isn't going to get any better with age, and with players retiring earlier than in years past because of awareness of their health and managing their money better (not to mention Stafford's wife had her own health scare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford play this last year and walk away.
RE: RE: If this happens  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 11:49 am : link
In comment 14794130 Pheonix Orion said:
Quote:
In comment 14794125 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


I can see Miami trading up with Washington. Miami takes Tua. Detroit then takes Herbert.



Would Washington give up the best player in the draft?

If Young falls to us I think we run to the podium even over an LT.


For multiple firsts? I would.
If Detroit takes a QB.....which I doubt very much  
George from PA : 1/26/2020 11:50 am : link
(Stafford cap hit is hugh and coaching is on hot seat...targeting a rookie QB, really?)....but it will drive Miami to overpay with Redskins.

But Chase Young baby!
'If Young falls to us I think we run to the podium even over an LT'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 11:50 am : link
The Giants would break the new rule about waiting the five minutes before announcing the pick.

But don't hold your breath for it to happen.

As an aside I hope we aren't seriously considering any of these OT's at #4. None of them have the high ceiling, high floor and body of work on the field to warrant it. Wills is the safest and comes closest and Bechton has the high ceiling but #4 is rare air for a prospect and these guys would all need oxygen to sniff it.
RE: RE: If this happens  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 11:50 am : link
In comment 14794130 Pheonix Orion said:
Quote:
In comment 14794125 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


I can see Miami trading up with Washington. Miami takes Tua. Detroit then takes Herbert.



Would Washington give up the best player in the draft?

If Young falls to us I think we run to the podium even over an LT.


Also, Sy made a comment that they could choose Simmons. So, if they truly like him that much how do they not do it? They'll get him at 5 and pick up at least another first.
Well It  
mdthedream : 1/26/2020 11:52 am : link
would make sense seeing the Lions might feel Stafford has a couple years left and Tua is the guy they want OR hebert. That said they could keep stafford and draft Tua anyway. Really depends I think on if there is a team out there that wants Stafford.
'they could choose Simmons'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 11:53 am : link
I like Simmons but he isn't in the same class as Young as a prospect. Young is in a group of one in this Draft. He's a notch above every other player. That includes Burrow, Okudah and anyone other name floated out there.
RE: 32M cap hit if they do...  
UConn4523 : 1/26/2020 11:54 am : link
In comment 14794117 CromartiesKid21 said:
Quote:
Who writes this shit?


Yeah I don’t buy it either. Maybe a little if it was for Burrow but nothing would be more Detroit than doing this for Tua.
RE: 'they could choose Simmons'  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 11:54 am : link
In comment 14794148 Torrag said:
Quote:
I like Simmons but he isn't in the same class as Young as a prospect. Young is in a group of one in this Draft. He's a notch above every other player. That includes Burrow, Okudah and anyone other name floated out there.


While I agree with you, I am going off Sy's comment as well as the fact that they'd get premium picks out of it.
RE: You also have to consider this:  
Chocco : 1/26/2020 11:59 am : link
In comment 14794118 Anakim said:
Quote:
Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn are FIRMLY on the hot seat. If they don't do well next year, they're gone. That's why I don't think they go QB. They need to win now.

Exactly
'they'd get premium picks out of it'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 11:59 am : link
Scenario: the Giants are on the clock. Young has slid to #4 simply because of QB trade ups. We are offered a haul for the pick. What would you do? Be honest. You'd do backflips to the podium and take Young...or you should. So will Washington imo.
RE: 'they'd get premium picks out of it'  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 12:02 pm : link
In comment 14794157 Torrag said:
Quote:
Scenario: the Giants are on the clock. Young has slid to #4 simply because of QB trade ups. We are offered a haul for the pick. What would you do? Be honest. You'd do backflips to the podium and take Young...or you should. So will Washington imo.


Different scenario. One, there aren't rumors 9f us liking Simmons as much as Young. Two, the compensation wouldn't be as great as what Washington would have gotten. And do we have a guy rated similarly that we can guarantee we get then, yes, it becomes a conversation. But in your scenario, yes, I would take Young. Again, we aren't talking about my personal preference. We are talking about something that is possible.
'there aren't rumors 9f us liking Simmons as much as Young'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:05 pm : link
Don't even go there. No one likes Simmons as much as Young. No one.
RE: 'they'd get premium picks out of it'  
section125 : 1/26/2020 12:06 pm : link
In comment 14794157 Torrag said:
Quote:
Scenario: the Giants are on the clock. Young has slid to #4 simply because of QB trade ups. We are offered a haul for the pick. What would you do? Be honest. You'd do backflips to the podium and take Young...or you should. So will Washington imo.


If all the QBs are gone, why would anyone offer a "haul" to move up...?

To Answer the question: take Young...
RE: 'there aren't rumors 9f us liking Simmons as much as Young'  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 12:06 pm : link
In comment 14794163 Torrag said:
Quote:
Don't even go there. No one likes Simmons as much as Young. No one.


Again, I am going by what Sy has said. Why is this so difficult to understand?
I looked I can't find a single report of that anywhere.  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:07 pm : link
Because it doesn't exist.
RE: If this happens  
The_Boss : 1/26/2020 12:08 pm : link
In comment 14794125 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
I can see Miami trading up with Washington. Miami takes Tua. Detroit then takes Herbert.


That’s the fantasy. In the end, I think Washington resists the potential haul via trade in favor for the best player in the draft.
Remember the Patriot / Belichick way is to...  
morrison40 : 1/26/2020 12:10 pm : link
Trade an asset for maximum return just as it passes its peak, If Patricia/Quinn believe Stafford is at that point, I wont be shocked if they draft a QB at 3. Detroit doesn't want to rebuild and in 2-3 yrs be stuck with a declining QB.
RE: I looked I can't find a single report of that anywhere.  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 12:12 pm : link
In comment 14794166 Torrag said:
Quote:
Because it doesn't exist.


Why are you being a dick? Do you think I made that up about Sy? He said don't be surprised if Washington took Simmons over Young. You need to understand the difference between something being possible and something being likely.
I've said it before but it bears repeating.  
BlueLou'sBack : 1/26/2020 12:16 pm : link
It's EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that Washington will give up the #2 slot and Chase Young for ANY offer.

The just hired a defensive oriented HC with chops and weight based on a record of success, and his success was largely tied to a dominant DL.

Rivera might blow his top if Snyder dictates accepting a trade offer.

That's pure speculation but it makes logical sense.
'something being possible and something being likely'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:18 pm : link
IMO the odds anyone takes Simmons over Young are miniscule. My posts will reflect that. And don't get upset we're talking football and no one made any insults I'm aware of.

Ron Rivera  
Gruber : 1/26/2020 12:18 pm : link
I posted on another thread to absolutely no response: what if Ron Rivera is not sold on Dwayne Haksins as his quarterback?
Driving up the price  
Lines of Scrimmage : 1/26/2020 12:18 pm : link
to move up imo. Would Detroit even allow the GM/Patricia to do this? Detroit ownership was clear they had to show results this year. Can't see them allowing them to pick a QB with the fairly strong possibility a whole new regime is coming. Remember the GM got rid of Caldwell who had fairly good results and made the playoffs.
I think you can safely assume the following  
BlueLou'sBack : 1/26/2020 12:19 pm : link
1) Cinci selects Joe Burrow
2) Washington selects Chase Young

3) The fun begins as somebody offers a bundle for Herbert or Tua.

No other QB compares with those top 3 IMO.
'what if Ron Rivera is not sold on Dwayne Haksins'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:20 pm : link
Irrelevant Snyder had a hand in picking Haskins so Ron's stuck with him for a while. That said he probably at least likes haskins or why would he have taken the job?
No other QB compares with those top 3 IMO.  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:21 pm : link
Yup, Love isn't in that conversation as far as I'm concerned.
RE: It’s better for the Giants if the Lions go QB  
Saquads26 : 1/26/2020 12:21 pm : link
In comment 14794120 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
Okudah would fall to the Giants.


I’d still take Simmons over him
RE: 32M cap hit if they do...  
ron mexico : 1/26/2020 12:21 pm : link
In comment 14794117 CromartiesKid21 said:
Quote:
Who writes this shit?


That’s a face cut, not if he’s traded.

Looks like 20mil dead cap for a trade
RE: 'something being possible and something being likely'  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 12:22 pm : link
In comment 14794181 Torrag said:
Quote:
IMO the odds anyone takes Simmons over Young are miniscule. My posts will reflect that. And don't get upset we're talking football and no one made any insults I'm aware of.


But to repeat myself. It isn't Simmons over Young. That is what Sy said. He said don't be shocked if thay happens with Washington. So, now look at the big picture. It isn't Simmons over Young. It is Simmons and multiple picks over Young. Big difference.
Meant to say  
ron mexico : 1/26/2020 12:23 pm : link
That’s if he’s cut
If the Lions have a conviction about  
TommyWiseau : 1/26/2020 12:27 pm : link
Tua or Herbert it would be smart to take em. Stafford is not getting any younger (he will be 32 next month) and as everyone knows, back injuries don't just go away. Drafting Tua or Herbert and letting the QB sit for a year or two would be the smart move
RE: 32M cap hit if they do...  
Capt. Don : 1/26/2020 12:28 pm : link
In comment 14794117 CromartiesKid21 said:
Quote:
Who writes this shit?


I think it is possible that you have an incomplete understanding of how this works.

Trading him would accelerate guarantees ($32 M) but would eliminate $21.3M which means they would be losing $10.7M in cap space for a player not on their roster.

Dont get me wrong, that hurts but it isnt $32M, which wouldve been insurmountable. It also frees up a lot of money after this year.
'Big difference'.  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:30 pm : link
Again put yourself in the same scenario for the Giants? Would you pass on Young? I wouldn't. I'd say the odds are slim it happens. Less than 10%.
Whats the cap  
XBRONX : 1/26/2020 12:31 pm : link
hit if Stafford is cut after next season?
RE: Ron Rivera  
Capt. Don : 1/26/2020 12:32 pm : link
In comment 14794182 Gruber said:
Quote:
I posted on another thread to absolutely no response: what if Ron Rivera is not sold on Dwayne Haksins as his quarterback?


Then they probably wouldn't have hired him in the first place.
RE: 'Big difference'.  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 12:32 pm : link
In comment 14794202 Torrag said:
Quote:
Again put yourself in the same scenario for the Giants? Would you pass on Young? I wouldn't. I'd say the odds are slim it happens. Less than 10%.


You are missing the point. Holy shit. If Washington likes Simmons as much or even close enough you take the deal. If Young is that much better than Simmons then you don't. Not that hard to understand.
'If Young is that much better than Simmons then you don't.'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:34 pm : link
Exactly. You don't.
RE: Whats the cap  
Capt. Don : 1/26/2020 12:35 pm : link
In comment 14794204 XBRONX said:
Quote:
hit if Stafford is cut after next season?


This year it would cost them $10.7M in cap space.

If they wait until next year it saves them $14M.

However, I dont think they can count on having such good spot to take a QB in the top 5 next year.
RE: 'If Young is that much better than Simmons then you don't.'  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 12:35 pm : link
In comment 14794208 Torrag said:
Quote:
Exactly. You don't.


Every team evaluate players differently. Your opinion may not be what others believe. Just stop being annoying.
'cap hit if Stafford is cut after next season?'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:35 pm : link
Stafford 2020...32M dead cap
Stafford 2021...21M dead cap
'Your opinion may not be what others believe.'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:39 pm : link
I'm sorry but no one thinks Simmons is as good as Young. Sy doesn't even say that. I looked. He suggests that Simmons plus trade assets might interest them. But it's just an opinion. He doesn't have any inside intel to that effect. Unless I'm missing some other post of his on the subject you could link or reference?

Until then I'll remain bullish that Young is a near certainty to the Redskins at #2.
With huge cap ramifications and a coach on the hot seat  
Mike from Ohio : 1/26/2020 12:40 pm : link
Moving on from Stafford makes very little sense, unless Patricia gets some vote of confidence to do so and start rebuilding with a new QB. However, if they did trade Stafford before the draft, Washington sitting at #2 could demand a ransom from any team drafting #5 or later that was hoping to get either Tua or Herbert. They would just have to get a haul knowing they would essentially be handing Young to the Giants at #4.
RE: 'cap hit if Stafford is cut after next season?'  
Capt. Don : 1/26/2020 12:41 pm : link
In comment 14794213 Torrag said:
Quote:
Stafford 2020...32M dead cap
Stafford 2021...21M dead cap


This is incomplete.

This year it costs them $10.7M
If they wait until next year it saves them $14M
Capt don you're misunderstanding(or I am but I don't think so)  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 12:45 pm : link
cap savings vs dead cap are different animals. Detroit will have $32M in dead cap space for 2019 if they deal Stafford.
RE: 'Your opinion may not be what others believe.'  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 12:50 pm : link
In comment 14794218 Torrag said:
Quote:
I'm sorry but no one thinks Simmons is as good as Young. Sy doesn't even say that. I looked. He suggests that Simmons plus trade assets might interest them. But it's just an opinion. He doesn't have any inside intel to that effect. Unless I'm missing some other post of his on the subject you could link or reference?

Until then I'll remain bullish that Young is a near certainty to the Redskins at #2.


And you cherry pick sentences or phrases. You have no idea what the grade is on both nor do you know the compensation of picks so having a definitive opinion one way or the other is just ridiculous. Also, what kind of defense is Rivera known for? He needs his Kuechly. If he wants to find his Kuechly then Simmons makes a ton of sense. These coverage LBs are more rare than pass rushers. So, no it wouldn't surprise if they did this one bit.

So, before you go and cherry pick another phrase, I agree Young is much better than Simmons but that doesn't mean Washington thinks the same or doesn't see a guy like Simmons as a rare type of player that it would make sense to take him and acquire more picks to help build up their OL.
RE: Capt don you're misunderstanding(or I am but I don't think so)  
Capt. Don : 1/26/2020 12:52 pm : link
In comment 14794226 Torrag said:
Quote:
cap savings vs dead cap are different animals. Detroit will have $32M in dead cap space for 2019 if they deal Stafford.


The dead cap represents accelerated guaranteed money but they also save money on salary. The net loss or gain is how it affects the cap.

For example if we release Ogletree there is a dead cap of $3.5M but his cap hit if we kept him when would cost $11.75M. The difference represents the cap savings or cost for that year.

So even though Ogletree has dead cap we actually save $8.25M against the cap if we cut him

For Stafford it would actually COST the Lions $10.7M this year and save them $33M next year.

If they wait until next year it will SAVE them $14M.
RE: Ron Rivera  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 1/26/2020 1:01 pm : link
In comment 14794182 Gruber said:
Quote:
I posted on another thread to absolutely no response: what if Ron Rivera is not sold on Dwayne Haksins as his quarterback?
I doubt he would have gotten the job then. The owner picked the QB. The last HC is gone in part because he didn't fully embrace the QB as a savior.
'I agree Young is much better than Simmons'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 1:03 pm : link
Thank you. You're right. So you don't have a post from Sy you could link because I always want to have as much info as possible? Thanks.

As far as 'cherry picking' I just take a tag line from a post to put in the heading to reference it so we're on the same page. I consider the complete passage when commenting.

As far as Kuechly I loved his game. Their games are much different in that Kuechly was an at the LoS tackling machine. I don't think he ever had less than 130 and that was in a down year for him once. No one expects that playstyle or tackling volume from Simmons. In his last two 15 game seasons he had 53 and 67 tackles. So no I don't think Rivera will see Simmons in that vein nor would that somehow make him a better prospect compared to Young in his eyes.
RE: RE: Ron Rivera  
GFAN52 : 1/26/2020 1:06 pm : link
In comment 14794240 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:
Quote:
In comment 14794182 Gruber said:


Quote:


I posted on another thread to absolutely no response: what if Ron Rivera is not sold on Dwayne Haksins as his quarterback?

I doubt he would have gotten the job then. The owner picked the QB. The last HC is gone in part because he didn't fully embrace the QB as a savior.


He also knows defense wins, in my opinion it's a lock they draft Chase Young. Any draft intrigue begins with the Lions.
RE: With huge cap ramifications and a coach on the hot seat  
Pheonix Orion : 1/26/2020 1:09 pm : link
In comment 14794219 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
Moving on from Stafford makes very little sense, unless Patricia gets some vote of confidence to do so and start rebuilding with a new QB. However, if they did trade Stafford before the draft, Washington sitting at #2 could demand a ransom from any team drafting #5 or later that was hoping to get either Tua or Herbert. They would just have to get a haul knowing they would essentially be handing Young to the Giants at #4.


KC model here is quite possible. Get a year to further evaluate both Stafford and possibly Tua (or Herbert).

Trade Staff a year later when ramifications are not as bad.
RE: RE: Capt don you're misunderstanding(or I am but I don't think so)  
Pheonix Orion : 1/26/2020 1:12 pm : link
In comment 14794230 Capt. Don said:
Quote:
In comment 14794226 Torrag said:


Quote:


cap savings vs dead cap are different animals. Detroit will have $32M in dead cap space for 2019 if they deal Stafford.



The dead cap represents accelerated guaranteed money but they also save money on salary. The net loss or gain is how it affects the cap.

For example if we release Ogletree there is a dead cap of $3.5M but his cap hit if we kept him when would cost $11.75M. The difference represents the cap savings or cost for that year.

So even though Ogletree has dead cap we actually save $8.25M against the cap if we cut him

For Stafford it would actually COST the Lions $10.7M this year and save them $33M next year.

If they wait until next year it will SAVE them $14M.


Ogletree based on these numbers vs value of keeping him almost definitely gone.

Solder has publicly said he'd take a paycut to stay. Since he is 'only' a 6.5 mill savings vs 13 mill dead money . If he takes a cut of 6.5 mill or more he becomes a wash to stay. But he becomes either your RT , backup or temporary placeholder until another guy is ready.
RE: RE: With huge cap ramifications and a coach on the hot seat  
GFAN52 : 1/26/2020 1:14 pm : link
In comment 14794252 Pheonix Orion said:
Quote:
In comment 14794219 Mike from Ohio said:


Quote:


Moving on from Stafford makes very little sense, unless Patricia gets some vote of confidence to do so and start rebuilding with a new QB. However, if they did trade Stafford before the draft, Washington sitting at #2 could demand a ransom from any team drafting #5 or later that was hoping to get either Tua or Herbert. They would just have to get a haul knowing they would essentially be handing Young to the Giants at #4.



KC model here is quite possible. Get a year to further evaluate both Stafford and possibly Tua (or Herbert).

Trade Staff a year later when ramifications are not as bad.


Except the Lions coach Patricia is on the hot seat, he needs an impact starter at #3, he can't afford to draft a QB who ends up holding a clipboard for the upcoming season.
RE: I said it at the end of the season  
Reb8thVA : 1/26/2020 1:19 pm : link
In comment 14794140 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
I think the Lions go the "Kansas City Model" and they will draft a QB at #3 to sit behind Stafford for the year and take over in 2021. You never know when you are drafting low enough to be in position to take a potential franchise QB and they should have one sitting there, especially if/when the Redskins take Chase Young.

Stafford's back isn't going to get any better with age, and with players retiring earlier than in years past because of awareness of their health and managing their money better (not to mention Stafford's wife had her own health scare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford play this last year and walk away.


Or is this the Lions Kerry Collins moment? Meaning they have a QB who is good enough, but they believe that there is some one better available who can put them over the top and they can’t pass the opportunity up.

Either way it’s the same outcome.
RE: I said it at the end of the season  
AcidTest : 1/26/2020 1:24 pm : link
In comment 14794140 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
I think the Lions go the "Kansas City Model" and they will draft a QB at #3 to sit behind Stafford for the year and take over in 2021. You never know when you are drafting low enough to be in position to take a potential franchise QB and they should have one sitting there, especially if/when the Redskins take Chase Young.

Stafford's back isn't going to get any better with age, and with players retiring earlier than in years past because of awareness of their health and managing their money better (not to mention Stafford's wife had her own health scare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford play this last year and walk away.


Quite possibly. I don't see the Lions cutting Stafford. As others have said, the cap hit would be enormous, and he gives them the best chance to win in 2020. But drafting a QB at #3 is a good compromise. As you note, who knows when they will be in position to do so again, at least not without surrendering a ton of draft picks in an enormous trade like the Eagles and Rams did with Wentz and Goff. If they do so, it would be similar to what the Giants did with Jones and Manning. They kept Manning even though his cap hit was very large. The problem is that there may not be a QB worth drafting at #3.
...  
christian : 1/26/2020 1:26 pm : link
Stafford has signing bonus, and restructuring money that would accelerate.

Don is right keeping him costs 23.2M, trading him would cost them 32M.

This is not the year to trade him. He's had major back concerns this year, it would be selling low.

Doesn't mean Detroit isn't in the market for a QB. They could let him repair his value while a rookie learns and then trade him, with a very attractive contract.

I'd bet it's Burrow, Young, Herbert, ?, Tua and no trades up top.
RE: 'I agree Young is much better than Simmons'  
robbieballs2003 : 1/26/2020 1:36 pm : link
In comment 14794243 Torrag said:
Quote:
Thank you. You're right. So you don't have a post from Sy you could link because I always want to have as much info as possible? Thanks.

As far as 'cherry picking' I just take a tag line from a post to put in the heading to reference it so we're on the same page. I consider the complete passage when commenting.

As far as Kuechly I loved his game. Their games are much different in that Kuechly was an at the LoS tackling machine. I don't think he ever had less than 130 and that was in a down year for him once. No one expects that playstyle or tackling volume from Simmons. In his last two 15 game seasons he had 53 and 67 tackles. So no I don't think Rivera will see Simmons in that vein nor would that somehow make him a better prospect compared to Young in his eyes.


Yes, comparing most to Kuechly to anyone is not fair. Behind Urlacher I believe he is the best 4-3 MLB that could both cover and run and hit. But what I was saying is that if he views Simmons as a guy he can plug into that D then he'll be much more valuable to Washington than many might think hence not out of the realm of possibility they trade down with Miami.
I don’t see the Lions going QB  
WillVAB : 1/26/2020 1:36 pm : link
It would take an Andrew Luck retirement situation for that to happen.

Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now.

Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions.
It’s lying season  
GiantsRage2007 : 1/26/2020 1:42 pm : link
Don’t believe anything.



The Lions are smart floating rumors maybe one of them prompts a someone to make them an offer & they get a haul.

If the Giants were smart they’d say we’re open for business with the #4 pick and gather additional draft capital. The fact that there is really no consensus on the 3rd, 4th, 5th ... 10th best players screams trade down and get more picks.

DG doesn’t strike me as someone who knows how to maneuver in the draft - ie never trading down & the Williams trade. But ... I digress.
The Lions have two pretty high priced CBs on the payroll.  
cosmicj : 1/26/2020 1:42 pm : link
Now that doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t consider Okudah, but I would guess they have a preference for another position, really.

Also, this is why you need long term stability at the GM position. The logic that the Lions GM and coach will make a short term decision in a franchise altering situation should be frightening to Lions fans.

I feel the same about Gettleman. Mara, Abrams and Judge need to be all over Gettleman Like a wet blanket in this situation.
RE: I don’t see the Lions going QB  
bw in dc : 1/26/2020 1:49 pm : link
In comment 14794291 WillVAB said:
Quote:
It would take an Andrew Luck retirement situation for that to happen.

Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now.

Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions.


I think this is mostly right. However, they will have Derrick Brown in the mix, too. They desperately need more help to generate pocket pressure. I think they had < 30 sacks last year...
RE: 'they'd get premium picks out of it'  
Rolyrock : 1/26/2020 1:52 pm : link
In comment 14794157 Torrag said:
Quote:
Scenario: the Giants are on the clock. Young has slid to #4 simply because of QB trade ups. We are offered a haul for the pick. What would you do? Be honest. You'd do backflips to the podium and take Young...or you should. So will Washington imo.
No, I still trade down. I dont trust Young. Somehow won't live up to the hype.
RE: The Lions have two pretty high priced CBs on the payroll.  
WillVAB : 1/26/2020 1:52 pm : link
In comment 14794297 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Now that doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t consider Okudah, but I would guess they have a preference for another position, really.

Also, this is why you need long term stability at the GM position. The logic that the Lions GM and coach will make a short term decision in a franchise altering situation should be frightening to Lions fans.

I feel the same about Gettleman. Mara, Abrams and Judge need to be all over Gettleman Like a wet blanket in this situation.


Slay is 29 and entering the last year of his contract.
'Detroit...they will have Derrick Brown in the mix'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 1:53 pm : link
/nod They have Slay and Coleman at CB. They need better DL play.
Capt Don  
fkap : 1/26/2020 1:55 pm : link
I applaud your understanding of the cap. Too many people get hung up on dead money. The more important number is cap savings vs additional cap hit. I miscalculated my figures in a previous post, by subtracting the roster/workout bonus. depending on the timing, they may be added. There's 32 mil of signing bonus. I don't know how OTC gets a cap figure of 21.3 if he stays on the team (7.8 salary + 13 prorated signing bonus + 6 mil roster bonus + .5 workout = 27.3 mil). If you accelerate all the 32 mil signing bonus and cut/trade him now, there should be an additional 4.7 cap hit. OTC says 10.7, but it looks like they didn't factor the roster bonus into the cap number. Either way, the cap number goes up this year if cut/traded. Dead money is only important to calculate savings or additional hit on the cap.

RE: RE: I don’t see the Lions going QB  
WillVAB : 1/26/2020 1:56 pm : link
In comment 14794302 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14794291 WillVAB said:


Quote:


It would take an Andrew Luck retirement situation for that to happen.

Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now.

Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions.



I think this is mostly right. However, they will have Derrick Brown in the mix, too. They desperately need more help to generate pocket pressure. I think they had < 30 sacks last year...


That’s a possibility as well.

My point is Detroit is not in the market for a QB unless there’s something really unusual going on behind the scenes with Stafford.
WillVAB...  
bw in dc : 1/26/2020 2:01 pm : link
I agree. If Stafford is healthy from the back surgery, he's their QB in 2020.
RE: ...  
DonnieD89 : 1/26/2020 2:02 pm : link
In comment 14794281 christian said:
Quote:
Stafford has signing bonus, and restructuring money that would accelerate.

Don is right keeping him costs 23.2M, trading him would cost them 32M.

This is not the year to trade him. He's had major back concerns this year, it would be selling low.

Doesn't mean Detroit isn't in the market for a QB. They could let him repair his value while a rookie learns and then trade him, with a very attractive contract.

I'd bet it's Burrow, Young, Herbert, ?, Tua and no trades up top.


If it falls in that order, it would not be a bad thing. Keep in mind, if Philip Rivers goes, San Diego might be looking for Tua. The Dolphins may have something to say about that, trading up to #4. That still leaves the Giants with a Okudah and pick or picks at #5 or #6. When was the last time the Giants had a shut down corner?
Good news for the Giants  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 1/26/2020 3:21 pm : link
patting myself on the back for my prescience.
Question is  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 1/26/2020 3:23 pm : link
If Rivera is wearing the big boy pants and might dump Haskins?
If Rivera is wearing the big boy pants and might dump Haskins?  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 3:25 pm : link
Been discussed and Snyder is wearing the big boy pants and he hand picked Haskins over Gruden's objections.
RE: If Rivera is wearing the big boy pants and might dump Haskins?  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 1/26/2020 3:28 pm : link
In comment 14794469 Torrag said:
Quote:
Been discussed and Snyder is wearing the big boy pants and he hand picked Haskins over Gruden's objections.

Rivera seemed to have a lot of leverage in the coaching search this year.
'seemed to have a lot of leverage'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 3:33 pm : link
He did? How so? He signed early on and it was pretty much settled before the season ended. I doubt it would have gone so smoothly if he wasn't on board with haskins from jump street. Not sure you're rationale but I'd be floored if Haskins wasn't the guy at least for next season.
Lions  
Mr. Nickels : 1/26/2020 3:37 pm : link
don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.

Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.
I think  
WillVAB : 1/26/2020 3:40 pm : link
People are trying to concoct scenarios where the Giants have a realistic shot at Young. I want Young as much as the next guy but it’s just not happening.

The best realistic scenario is where the Giants trade down and use the picks to pick up an ER and fix the OL.
RE: RE: 32M cap hit if they do...  
5BowlsSoon : 1/26/2020 4:00 pm : link
In comment 14794191 ron mexico said:
Quote:
In comment 14794117 CromartiesKid21 said:


Quote:


Who writes this shit?



That’s a face cut, not if he’s traded.

Looks like 20mil dead cap for a trade


Good catch Ron. Who does write this......
'People are trying to concoct scenarios where the Giants have...'  
Torrag : 1/26/2020 4:14 pm : link
a realistic shot at Young...but it’s just not happening.

Yep. That just about covers it. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely. Unfortunately yes.
RE: I think  
LauderdaleMatty : 1/26/2020 4:24 pm : link
In comment 14794506 WillVAB said:
Quote:
People are trying to concoct scenarios where the Giants have a realistic shot at Young. I want Young as much as the next guy but it’s just not happening.

The best realistic scenario is where the Giants trade down and use the picks to pick up an ER and fix the OL.


This. People over think these scenarios. Burrow and Young IMO are the two surest players by far IMO. People acting like they know exactly which kid will be an all pro are full of shit. It’s an educated guess and it’s not always even about talent.

OBJ looked like the steal of that draft. Right now not so much.
RE: Lions  
GFAN52 : 1/26/2020 4:34 pm : link
In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said:
Quote:
don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.

Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.


Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.
RE: RE: Lions  
Saquads26 : 1/26/2020 4:40 pm : link
In comment 14794585 GFAN52 said:
Quote:
In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said:


Quote:


don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.

Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.



Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.


For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?
RE: RE: RE: Lions  
WillVAB : 1/26/2020 5:55 pm : link
In comment 14794597 Saquads26 said:
Quote:
In comment 14794585 GFAN52 said:


Quote:


In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said:


Quote:


don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.

Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.



Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.



For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?


If the Skins pass via a trade down the Lions won’t. It’s going to take an extremely unlikely scenario for Young to be available at 4.

It would take something like a QB hungry team trading to 3 before the draft and the Skins trading out of 2 on draft night.
Or the Skins  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 1/26/2020 5:58 pm : link
Trading out to Miami who takes Tua, then Detroit takes Herbert.

Unlikely? Sure, but possible.
RE: RE: RE: Lions  
GFAN52 : 1/26/2020 6:17 pm : link
In comment 14794597 Saquads26 said:
Quote:
In comment 14794585 GFAN52 said:


Quote:


In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said:


Quote:


don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.

Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.



Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.



For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?


If it's so overwhelming possibly, but I highly doubt teams would offer that for a QB other than Burrow.
They should move on from Stafford  
Vanzetti : 1/26/2020 7:21 pm : link


Cut him and draft Tua.

It’s such an obvious move. Take the dead space hit this year and be ready to compete in 2021 with Tua as qb
RE: They should move on from Stafford  
GFAN52 : 1/26/2020 7:29 pm : link
In comment 14794763 Vanzetti said:
Quote:


Cut him and draft Tua.

It’s such an obvious move. Take the dead space hit this year and be ready to compete in 2021 with Tua as qb


Does Patricia have the time to develop him though. Fans were already calling for him to be fired this past season. He's 9-22-1 in two seasons. Would seem to me he will want players that can contribute right away this season to save his job.
If Detroit moves on from Stafford  
George : 1/26/2020 8:03 pm : link
That all but guarantees that someone will offer Washington all the coal in West Virginia for their #2 and the rights to get Tua.

I'll guess it will be San Diego.

Cinci - Burrow
SD - Tua
Detroit - Herbert
NY G - Young
or  
mdthedream : 1/26/2020 8:41 pm : link
wash takes Young and SD trades with the Giants and gives us a boat load.
could  
mdthedream : 1/26/2020 8:42 pm : link
also be the Raiders giving us a boat load.
Stafford  
WillVAB : 1/26/2020 9:09 pm : link
Is a 31 year old above average QB with a big contract. A guy the city of Detroit loves.

People here aren’t being realistic about Detroit’s approach to the draft. There’s close to 0% chance they’re seriously looking at QBs unless Stafford’s injury is retirement level shit.
If I'm Miami's GM  
OC2.0 : 1/27/2020 3:05 am : link
I sit still. You'll get 1 of the 2 QB's barring something crazy going down with Wash. trading out.
Also  
OC2.0 : 1/27/2020 3:09 am : link
Mia. shouldn't spend any draft picks that they basically tanked a season for.
I really don't think we're getting Chase Young at #4. Zero chance, IMV  
Leg of Theismann : 1/27/2020 4:15 am : link
First of all: with Tua's injury and Herbert being what he is as a prospect, I don't see this being a class of QBs that goes 1-2-3. Has that ever happened other than in 1999? I'm seriously asking because it sounds pretty unprecedented to me. I could maybe see them all going top 5, but not 1-2-3, and that's what we would need to get Chase Young.

Young was averaging close to 2 sacks a game before Michigan--who had one of the best o-lines in the country--decided to double and triple-team him on literally every single play (and then Wisconsin and Clemson copied that exact game plan).

Teams value pass rushers more than anything else besides QBs now and Chase Young is as good as they come, I don't know where this notion that "he's actually not that great" came from. We have long been saying he's in a class of his own in the 2020 draft, head and shoulders above any other prospect, and then all of a sudden he has 3 games without a sack and now it's like people think his stock is plummeting or something?

Think about it: he had 4 sacks and 5 TFL against that same Wisconsin team just a few weeks prior to the conf. championship... what do you think changed in the game he had 0 sacks? The game plan was designed to eliminate him and force the rest of Ohio St. to beat them, just as Michigan did.

I'd be shocked if he doesn't go the Skins at #2, unless they get a gigantic haul of an offer, and I don't see a team making that offer for Herbert nor Tua with his injury question marks. Burrow is one thing, Cinci is going to get some major offers, but I don't see the Skins getting those same types of massive offers (at least not one big enough to pass on Young).
RE: I really don't think we're getting Chase Young at #4. Zero chance, IMV  
Pheonix Orion : 1/27/2020 4:51 am : link
In comment 14794981 Leg of Theismann said:
Quote:
First of all: with Tua's injury and Herbert being what he is as a prospect, I don't see this being a class of QBs that goes 1-2-3. Has that ever happened other than in 1999? I'm seriously asking because it sounds pretty unprecedented to me. I could maybe see them all going top 5, but not 1-2-3, and that's what we would need to get Chase Young.

Young was averaging close to 2 sacks a game before Michigan--who had one of the best o-lines in the country--decided to double and triple-team him on literally every single play (and then Wisconsin and Clemson copied that exact game plan).

Teams value pass rushers more than anything else besides QBs now and Chase Young is as good as they come, I don't know where this notion that "he's actually not that great" came from. We have long been saying he's in a class of his own in the 2020 draft, head and shoulders above any other prospect, and then all of a sudden he has 3 games without a sack and now it's like people think his stock is plummeting or something?

Think about it: he had 4 sacks and 5 TFL against that same Wisconsin team just a few weeks prior to the conf. championship... what do you think changed in the game he had 0 sacks? The game plan was designed to eliminate him and force the rest of Ohio St. to beat them, just as Michigan did.

I'd be shocked if he doesn't go the Skins at #2, unless they get a gigantic haul of an offer, and I don't see a team making that offer for Herbert nor Tua with his injury question marks. Burrow is one thing, Cinci is going to get some major offers, but I don't see the Skins getting those same types of massive offers (at least not one big enough to pass on Young).


I wouldnt call it zero but I wouldn't call it more than 20% either. Arguably 6 teams in top 12 want a QB. Do more than Burrow and Tua make the grade? Last year 4 guys were considered the best 2 went top 6 and the 3rd went 15th and the 4th second round. The year before 4 went top 10 but only 1 top 5. Could go either way. Tua has a ton of intangibles which is very important for the QB position but the medical flags. Herbert is too inconsistent for my liking but a ton of tools there and teams may think they can tailor a system to his strengths.
Or...  
.McL. : 1/27/2020 9:21 am : link
Its all smoke and no fire... The Lions doing what needs to be done to get themselves a haul for trading down.

Perhaps the Giant's GM should take notes.
Chase Young is a pipe dream right now  
Rjanyg : 1/27/2020 11:03 am : link
Let's look at this more practically. Free agency is going to happen before the draft. There are a bunch of players that could be available to sign and while that will cost more than Young would cost it will be money well spent if they sign a viable pass rusher. We will have the resources to get a very good edge/OLB and a good Center. Those should be the target positions on day 1 of free agency.

The draft will bring either an OT or a LB that will start day 1. The 2nd round pick could also be used at a position of need.

So do yourself a favor and look at the idea of adding 4 starters regardless of cost between FA and the first 2 round of the draft. Those positions are OLB/DE, LB, OT and C.

We all know those are the positions of need.
RE: RE: I really don't think we're getting Chase Young at #4. Zero chance, IMV  
Leg of Theismann : 1/28/2020 3:27 am : link
In comment 14794986 Pheonix Orion said:
Quote:
In comment 14794981 Leg of Theismann said:


Quote:


First of all: with Tua's injury and Herbert being what he is as a prospect, I don't see this being a class of QBs that goes 1-2-3. Has that ever happened other than in 1999? I'm seriously asking because it sounds pretty unprecedented to me. I could maybe see them all going top 5, but not 1-2-3, and that's what we would need to get Chase Young.

Young was averaging close to 2 sacks a game before Michigan--who had one of the best o-lines in the country--decided to double and triple-team him on literally every single play (and then Wisconsin and Clemson copied that exact game plan).

Teams value pass rushers more than anything else besides QBs now and Chase Young is as good as they come, I don't know where this notion that "he's actually not that great" came from. We have long been saying he's in a class of his own in the 2020 draft, head and shoulders above any other prospect, and then all of a sudden he has 3 games without a sack and now it's like people think his stock is plummeting or something?

Think about it: he had 4 sacks and 5 TFL against that same Wisconsin team just a few weeks prior to the conf. championship... what do you think changed in the game he had 0 sacks? The game plan was designed to eliminate him and force the rest of Ohio St. to beat them, just as Michigan did.

I'd be shocked if he doesn't go the Skins at #2, unless they get a gigantic haul of an offer, and I don't see a team making that offer for Herbert nor Tua with his injury question marks. Burrow is one thing, Cinci is going to get some major offers, but I don't see the Skins getting those same types of massive offers (at least not one big enough to pass on Young).



I wouldnt call it zero but I wouldn't call it more than 20% either. Arguably 6 teams in top 12 want a QB. Do more than Burrow and Tua make the grade? Last year 4 guys were considered the best 2 went top 6 and the 3rd went 15th and the 4th second round. The year before 4 went top 10 but only 1 top 5. Could go either way. Tua has a ton of intangibles which is very important for the QB position but the medical flags. Herbert is too inconsistent for my liking but a ton of tools there and teams may think they can tailor a system to his strengths.


... But for the Giants to get Young, the QBs will have to get picked 1-2-3 (Burrow-Tua-Herbert) at the top of the draft. You're talking about "2 went top 6" in 2019 and "4 went top 10" in 2018, but these are far cries from a 1-2-3 QB draft. Again I don't know if we've ever seen that aside from 1999 draft (but I could be wrong). You're right I'm exaggerating when I say "zero chance" of course there's SOME chance out there, but between 20% (as you mentioned) and zero, I'd say the chances are closer to zero.

But you're right, technically the chances are non-zero... People have been talking about Tua as #1 overall pick for two years, so even with the injury I think SOME team is going to be convinced he's still "that" guy, and all it takes is one team to target him and trade up to #2. In that sense I think Tua has a better chance than Herbert of spurring a team to trade a haul and enough of one to deter the Skins from taking Young. But the thing is, even if that happens, then the LIONS will have Young fall right in their laps, and then we would ALSO need a team to trade enough of a haul for Herbert to deter the Lions from taking Young as well. So I think it's somewhat possible, but we're going to need a couple teams to fall completely in love with Tua and Herbert respectively to a point that they will EACH offer massive hauls that have to be worth more than Chase Young himself.
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