Trade draft rumor that could change the draft.

In comment 14794204 XBRONX said:

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hit if Stafford is cut after next season?

This year it would cost them $10.7M in cap space.

If they wait until next year it saves them $14M.

However, I dont think they can count on having such good spot to take a QB in the top 5 next year.

In comment 14794208 Torrag said:

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Exactly. You don't.

Every team evaluate players differently. Your opinion may not be what others believe. Just stop being annoying.

Stafford 2020...32M dead cap
Stafford 2021...21M dead cap

I'm sorry but no one thinks Simmons is as good as Young. Sy doesn't even say that. I looked. He suggests that Simmons plus trade assets might interest them. But it's just an opinion. He doesn't have any inside intel to that effect. Unless I'm missing some other post of his on the subject you could link or reference?

Until then I'll remain bullish that Young is a near certainty to the Redskins at #2.

Moving on from Stafford makes very little sense, unless Patricia gets some vote of confidence to do so and start rebuilding with a new QB. However, if they did trade Stafford before the draft, Washington sitting at #2 could demand a ransom from any team drafting #5 or later that was hoping to get either Tua or Herbert. They would just have to get a haul knowing they would essentially be handing Young to the Giants at #4.

In comment 14794213 Torrag said:

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Stafford 2020...32M dead cap Stafford 2021...21M dead cap

This is incomplete.

This year it costs them $10.7M
If they wait until next year it saves them $14M

cap savings vs dead cap are different animals. Detroit will have $32M in dead cap space for 2019 if they deal Stafford.

In comment 14794218 Torrag said:

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I'm sorry but no one thinks Simmons is as good as Young. Sy doesn't even say that. I looked. He suggests that Simmons plus trade assets might interest them. But it's just an opinion. He doesn't have any inside intel to that effect. Unless I'm missing some other post of his on the subject you could link or reference? Until then I'll remain bullish that Young is a near certainty to the Redskins at #2.

And you cherry pick sentences or phrases. You have no idea what the grade is on both nor do you know the compensation of picks so having a definitive opinion one way or the other is just ridiculous. Also, what kind of defense is Rivera known for? He needs his Kuechly. If he wants to find his Kuechly then Simmons makes a ton of sense. These coverage LBs are more rare than pass rushers. So, no it wouldn't surprise if they did this one bit.

So, before you go and cherry pick another phrase, I agree Young is much better than Simmons but that doesn't mean Washington thinks the same or doesn't see a guy like Simmons as a rare type of player that it would make sense to take him and acquire more picks to help build up their OL.

In comment 14794226 Torrag said:

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cap savings vs dead cap are different animals. Detroit will have $32M in dead cap space for 2019 if they deal Stafford.

The dead cap represents accelerated guaranteed money but they also save money on salary. The net loss or gain is how it affects the cap.

For example if we release Ogletree there is a dead cap of $3.5M but his cap hit if we kept him when would cost $11.75M. The difference represents the cap savings or cost for that year.

So even though Ogletree has dead cap we actually save $8.25M against the cap if we cut him

For Stafford it would actually COST the Lions $10.7M this year and save them $33M next year.

If they wait until next year it will SAVE them $14M.

In comment 14794182 Gruber said:

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I posted on another thread to absolutely no response: what if Ron Rivera is not sold on Dwayne Haksins as his quarterback?

I doubt he would have gotten the job then. The owner picked the QB. The last HC is gone in part because he didn't fully embrace the QB as a savior.

Thank you. You're right. So you don't have a post from Sy you could link because I always want to have as much info as possible? Thanks.

As far as 'cherry picking' I just take a tag line from a post to put in the heading to reference it so we're on the same page. I consider the complete passage when commenting.

As far as Kuechly I loved his game. Their games are much different in that Kuechly was an at the LoS tackling machine. I don't think he ever had less than 130 and that was in a down year for him once. No one expects that playstyle or tackling volume from Simmons. In his last two 15 game seasons he had 53 and 67 tackles. So no I don't think Rivera will see Simmons in that vein nor would that somehow make him a better prospect compared to Young in his eyes.

In comment 14794240 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:

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In comment 14794182 Gruber said: Quote: I posted on another thread to absolutely no response: what if Ron Rivera is not sold on Dwayne Haksins as his quarterback? I doubt he would have gotten the job then. The owner picked the QB. The last HC is gone in part because he didn't fully embrace the QB as a savior.

He also knows defense wins, in my opinion it's a lock they draft Chase Young. Any draft intrigue begins with the Lions.

In comment 14794219 Mike from Ohio said:

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Moving on from Stafford makes very little sense, unless Patricia gets some vote of confidence to do so and start rebuilding with a new QB. However, if they did trade Stafford before the draft, Washington sitting at #2 could demand a ransom from any team drafting #5 or later that was hoping to get either Tua or Herbert. They would just have to get a haul knowing they would essentially be handing Young to the Giants at #4.

KC model here is quite possible. Get a year to further evaluate both Stafford and possibly Tua (or Herbert).

Trade Staff a year later when ramifications are not as bad.

In comment 14794230 Capt. Don said:

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In comment 14794226 Torrag said: Quote: cap savings vs dead cap are different animals. Detroit will have $32M in dead cap space for 2019 if they deal Stafford. The dead cap represents accelerated guaranteed money but they also save money on salary. The net loss or gain is how it affects the cap. For example if we release Ogletree there is a dead cap of $3.5M but his cap hit if we kept him when would cost $11.75M. The difference represents the cap savings or cost for that year. So even though Ogletree has dead cap we actually save $8.25M against the cap if we cut him For Stafford it would actually COST the Lions $10.7M this year and save them $33M next year. If they wait until next year it will SAVE them $14M.

Ogletree based on these numbers vs value of keeping him almost definitely gone.

Solder has publicly said he'd take a paycut to stay. Since he is 'only' a 6.5 mill savings vs 13 mill dead money . If he takes a cut of 6.5 mill or more he becomes a wash to stay. But he becomes either your RT , backup or temporary placeholder until another guy is ready.

In comment 14794252 Pheonix Orion said:

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In comment 14794219 Mike from Ohio said: Quote: Moving on from Stafford makes very little sense, unless Patricia gets some vote of confidence to do so and start rebuilding with a new QB. However, if they did trade Stafford before the draft, Washington sitting at #2 could demand a ransom from any team drafting #5 or later that was hoping to get either Tua or Herbert. They would just have to get a haul knowing they would essentially be handing Young to the Giants at #4. KC model here is quite possible. Get a year to further evaluate both Stafford and possibly Tua (or Herbert). Trade Staff a year later when ramifications are not as bad.

Except the Lions coach Patricia is on the hot seat, he needs an impact starter at #3, he can't afford to draft a QB who ends up holding a clipboard for the upcoming season.

In comment 14794140 Matt in SGS said:

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I think the Lions go the "Kansas City Model" and they will draft a QB at #3 to sit behind Stafford for the year and take over in 2021. You never know when you are drafting low enough to be in position to take a potential franchise QB and they should have one sitting there, especially if/when the Redskins take Chase Young. Stafford's back isn't going to get any better with age, and with players retiring earlier than in years past because of awareness of their health and managing their money better (not to mention Stafford's wife had her own health scare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford play this last year and walk away.

Or is this the Lions Kerry Collins moment? Meaning they have a QB who is good enough, but they believe that there is some one better available who can put them over the top and they can’t pass the opportunity up.

Either way it’s the same outcome.

In comment 14794140 Matt in SGS said:

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I think the Lions go the "Kansas City Model" and they will draft a QB at #3 to sit behind Stafford for the year and take over in 2021. You never know when you are drafting low enough to be in position to take a potential franchise QB and they should have one sitting there, especially if/when the Redskins take Chase Young. Stafford's back isn't going to get any better with age, and with players retiring earlier than in years past because of awareness of their health and managing their money better (not to mention Stafford's wife had her own health scare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford play this last year and walk away.

Quite possibly. I don't see the Lions cutting Stafford. As others have said, the cap hit would be enormous, and he gives them the best chance to win in 2020. But drafting a QB at #3 is a good compromise. As you note, who knows when they will be in position to do so again, at least not without surrendering a ton of draft picks in an enormous trade like the Eagles and Rams did with Wentz and Goff. If they do so, it would be similar to what the Giants did with Jones and Manning. They kept Manning even though his cap hit was very large. The problem is that there may not be a QB worth drafting at #3.

Stafford has signing bonus, and restructuring money that would accelerate.

Don is right keeping him costs 23.2M, trading him would cost them 32M.

This is not the year to trade him. He's had major back concerns this year, it would be selling low.

Doesn't mean Detroit isn't in the market for a QB. They could let him repair his value while a rookie learns and then trade him, with a very attractive contract.

I'd bet it's Burrow, Young, Herbert, ?, Tua and no trades up top.

In comment 14794243 Torrag said:

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Thank you. You're right. So you don't have a post from Sy you could link because I always want to have as much info as possible? Thanks. As far as 'cherry picking' I just take a tag line from a post to put in the heading to reference it so we're on the same page. I consider the complete passage when commenting. As far as Kuechly I loved his game. Their games are much different in that Kuechly was an at the LoS tackling machine. I don't think he ever had less than 130 and that was in a down year for him once. No one expects that playstyle or tackling volume from Simmons. In his last two 15 game seasons he had 53 and 67 tackles. So no I don't think Rivera will see Simmons in that vein nor would that somehow make him a better prospect compared to Young in his eyes.

Yes, comparing most to Kuechly to anyone is not fair. Behind Urlacher I believe he is the best 4-3 MLB that could both cover and run and hit. But what I was saying is that if he views Simmons as a guy he can plug into that D then he'll be much more valuable to Washington than many might think hence not out of the realm of possibility they trade down with Miami.

It would take an Andrew Luck retirement situation for that to happen.

Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now.

Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions.

Don’t believe anything.



The Lions are smart floating rumors maybe one of them prompts a someone to make them an offer & they get a haul.

If the Giants were smart they’d say we’re open for business with the #4 pick and gather additional draft capital. The fact that there is really no consensus on the 3rd, 4th, 5th ... 10th best players screams trade down and get more picks.

DG doesn’t strike me as someone who knows how to maneuver in the draft - ie never trading down & the Williams trade. But ... I digress.

Now that doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t consider Okudah, but I would guess they have a preference for another position, really.

Also, this is why you need long term stability at the GM position. The logic that the Lions GM and coach will make a short term decision in a franchise altering situation should be frightening to Lions fans.

I feel the same about Gettleman. Mara, Abrams and Judge need to be all over Gettleman Like a wet blanket in this situation.

In comment 14794291 WillVAB said:

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It would take an Andrew Luck retirement situation for that to happen. Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now. Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions.

I think this is mostly right. However, they will have Derrick Brown in the mix, too. They desperately need more help to generate pocket pressure. I think they had < 30 sacks last year...

In comment 14794157 Torrag said:

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Scenario: the Giants are on the clock. Young has slid to #4 simply because of QB trade ups. We are offered a haul for the pick. What would you do? Be honest. You'd do backflips to the podium and take Young...or you should. So will Washington imo.

No, I still trade down. I dont trust Young. Somehow won't live up to the hype.

In comment 14794297 cosmicj said:

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Now that doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t consider Okudah, but I would guess they have a preference for another position, really. Also, this is why you need long term stability at the GM position. The logic that the Lions GM and coach will make a short term decision in a franchise altering situation should be frightening to Lions fans. I feel the same about Gettleman. Mara, Abrams and Judge need to be all over Gettleman Like a wet blanket in this situation.

Slay is 29 and entering the last year of his contract.

/nod They have Slay and Coleman at CB. They need better DL play.

I applaud your understanding of the cap. Too many people get hung up on dead money. The more important number is cap savings vs additional cap hit. I miscalculated my figures in a previous post, by subtracting the roster/workout bonus. depending on the timing, they may be added. There's 32 mil of signing bonus. I don't know how OTC gets a cap figure of 21.3 if he stays on the team (7.8 salary + 13 prorated signing bonus + 6 mil roster bonus + .5 workout = 27.3 mil). If you accelerate all the 32 mil signing bonus and cut/trade him now, there should be an additional 4.7 cap hit. OTC says 10.7, but it looks like they didn't factor the roster bonus into the cap number. Either way, the cap number goes up this year if cut/traded. Dead money is only important to calculate savings or additional hit on the cap.

In comment 14794302 bw in dc said:

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In comment 14794291 WillVAB said: Quote: It would take an Andrew Luck retirement situation for that to happen. Stafford isn’t old. His contract makes it extremely difficult to move on. The Lions need players to help them win now. Imv it’s Okudah or trade down for the Lions. I think this is mostly right. However, they will have Derrick Brown in the mix, too. They desperately need more help to generate pocket pressure. I think they had < 30 sacks last year...

That’s a possibility as well.

My point is Detroit is not in the market for a QB unless there’s something really unusual going on behind the scenes with Stafford.

I agree. If Stafford is healthy from the back surgery, he's their QB in 2020.

In comment 14794281 christian said:

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Stafford has signing bonus, and restructuring money that would accelerate. Don is right keeping him costs 23.2M, trading him would cost them 32M. This is not the year to trade him. He's had major back concerns this year, it would be selling low. Doesn't mean Detroit isn't in the market for a QB. They could let him repair his value while a rookie learns and then trade him, with a very attractive contract. I'd bet it's Burrow, Young, Herbert, ?, Tua and no trades up top.

If it falls in that order, it would not be a bad thing. Keep in mind, if Philip Rivers goes, San Diego might be looking for Tua. The Dolphins may have something to say about that, trading up to #4. That still leaves the Giants with a Okudah and pick or picks at #5 or #6. When was the last time the Giants had a shut down corner?

patting myself on the back for my prescience.

If Rivera is wearing the big boy pants and might dump Haskins?

Been discussed and Snyder is wearing the big boy pants and he hand picked Haskins over Gruden's objections.

In comment 14794469 Torrag said:

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Been discussed and Snyder is wearing the big boy pants and he hand picked Haskins over Gruden's objections.

Rivera seemed to have a lot of leverage in the coaching search this year.

He did? How so? He signed early on and it was pretty much settled before the season ended. I doubt it would have gone so smoothly if he wasn't on board with haskins from jump street. Not sure you're rationale but I'd be floored if Haskins wasn't the guy at least for next season.

don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3.

Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.

People are trying to concoct scenarios where the Giants have a realistic shot at Young. I want Young as much as the next guy but it’s just not happening.

The best realistic scenario is where the Giants trade down and use the picks to pick up an ER and fix the OL.

In comment 14794191 ron mexico said:

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In comment 14794117 CromartiesKid21 said: Quote: Who writes this shit? That’s a face cut, not if he’s traded. Looks like 20mil dead cap for a trade

Good catch Ron. Who does write this......

a realistic shot at Young...but it’s just not happening.

Yep. That just about covers it. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely. Unfortunately yes.

In comment 14794506 WillVAB said:

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People are trying to concoct scenarios where the Giants have a realistic shot at Young. I want Young as much as the next guy but it’s just not happening. The best realistic scenario is where the Giants trade down and use the picks to pick up an ER and fix the OL.

This. People over think these scenarios. Burrow and Young IMO are the two surest players by far IMO. People acting like they know exactly which kid will be an all pro are full of shit. It’s an educated guess and it’s not always even about talent.

OBJ looked like the steal of that draft. Right now not so much.

In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said:

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don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3. Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young.

Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.

In comment 14794585 GFAN52 said:

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In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said: Quote: don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3. Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young. Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young.

For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?

In comment 14794597 Saquads26 said:

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In comment 14794585 GFAN52 said: Quote: In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said: Quote: don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3. Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young. Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young. For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?

If the Skins pass via a trade down the Lions won’t. It’s going to take an extremely unlikely scenario for Young to be available at 4.

It would take something like a QB hungry team trading to 3 before the draft and the Skins trading out of 2 on draft night.

Trading out to Miami who takes Tua, then Detroit takes Herbert.

Unlikely? Sure, but possible.

In comment 14794597 Saquads26 said:

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In comment 14794585 GFAN52 said: Quote: In comment 14794503 Mr. Nickels said: Quote: don't need to trade Stafford they can take their QB at 3. Leaving QBs going at 1 and 3. Miami then needs to trade up to #2 with Redskins to insure they get their guy Tua.. Or Lions can move up 1 spot. If Lions trade with Redskins that screws us the most because we won't be able to trade down or get Young. Redskins aren't passing on Chase Young. For the right price they might. I don’t think Young is a generational “can’t pass” on guy at 2. Say they offer 3 First round picks and more, you’re telling me they say no?

If it's so overwhelming possibly, but I highly doubt teams would offer that for a QB other than Burrow.

Cut him and draft Tua.

It’s such an obvious move. Take the dead space hit this year and be ready to compete in 2021 with Tua as qb

In comment 14794763 Vanzetti said:

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Cut him and draft Tua. It’s such an obvious move. Take the dead space hit this year and be ready to compete in 2021 with Tua as qb

Does Patricia have the time to develop him though. Fans were already calling for him to be fired this past season. He's 9-22-1 in two seasons. Would seem to me he will want players that can contribute right away this season to save his job.

That all but guarantees that someone will offer Washington all the coal in West Virginia for their #2 and the rights to get Tua.

I'll guess it will be San Diego.

Cinci - Burrow
SD - Tua
Detroit - Herbert
NY G - Young

wash takes Young and SD trades with the Giants and gives us a boat load.

also be the Raiders giving us a boat load.