NFT: Yankee fans: which lineup do you like best

In comment 14794562 k2tampa said:

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In comment 14794242 JPinstripes said: Quote: In comment 14794229 PaulN said: Quote: LeMahieu, Torres, Judge, Andujar, Stanton, Voit, Sanchez, Urshella, Gardner. Old school, new school, make sense school. Bad idea - why move Gleyber into the 2 hole with his paltry 337 OBP and drop Judge and his 390 OBP??? No thanks. Gleyber should be hitting 5/6 and a healthy Voit should be in consideration for top 5 with his high OBP. Torres should definitely be above Sanchez as long as Gary keeps trying to hit every ball 450 feet. He and Voit have both changed their approach dramatically from their first year, where they were incredibly successful going the other way. Now both try to pull everything and hit it a mile. In fact, I'd put both Torres and Andujar (if he looks the same in Spring Training) in front of Sanchez and Voit, because both consistently put the ball in play. LeMahieu's OBP was 50 points above his average. Torres' OBP was 60 points above his average. Torres nearly doubled Voit's HR total and had 25 fewer K's in 30 more ABs last year. Heck, I'd put Torres ahead of Stanton (same OBP, 60 fewer K's in 2019 than Stanton in 2018 in 60 fewer ABs).

Voit's OBP was still very high .378 even with the rib injury so not sure your observation is correct...

he had a 1:4 K rate A 130 OPS+ 297/328/527/855. Those are not elite numbers at all. They're good.

They're also lower than what Gio did last year 1:3.5 K rate 133 OPS+ 314/355/534/889.

All of us are doubtful Gio can repeat but the odds are probably greater of Gio hitting well enough to stay at 3B than Andujar fielding well enough to stay at 3B.

Look I don't hate the guy. I want him to do well. I'd be thrilled if he turned into Graig Nettles who was also a lousy 3B his first few years in MLB. But I think I have a better shot at winning Powerball.

In comment 14794594 arniefez said:

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he had a 1:4 K rate A 130 OPS+ 297/328/527/855. Those are not elite numbers at all. They're good. They're also lower than what Gio did last year 1:3.5 K rate 133 OPS+ 314/355/534/889. All of us are doubtful Gio can repeat but the odds are probably greater of Gio hitting well enough to stay at 3B than Andujar fielding well enough to stay at 3B. Look I don't hate the guy. I want him to do well. I'd be thrilled if he turned into Graig Nettles who was also a lousy 3B his first few years in MLB. But I think I have a better shot at winning Powerball.

Andujar is a very bad fielder. He will need to get good enough hopefully at 1B or LF. Stanton and Sanchez will also need DH time.

In comment 14794466 Matt M. said:

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Why would you want more for LeMhieu than Judge? I want Voit in the top 5 and Sancchez 6th or 7th. Gardner Should Not bat higher than 9th and neither should Hicks.

Because LeMahieu is a beast. Even if he doesn't get a hit he is productive with his ABs. I don't need an all or nothing guy. I need a guy that is reliable.

aka Judge is my ideal lead off hitter

without Giancarlo Stanton. He is apparently a really nice guy, but he is a lousy baseball player.

Robbie,

Granting the time injured and the weeks coming back from injury;

Judge 2019 OBP: .381
Judge Career OBP: .394
Judge Career Number of walks per 164 games: 113

DJ LeMahieu 2019 OBP: .375
DJ LeMahieu Career OBP: .354
DJ LeMahieu Career Number of walks per 164 games: 48

What am I missing that's truly a substantive reason to switch them?

I grant the SO by Judge are high and I grant last years RISP by LeMahieu; but does anyone have a better 1-2 at the top of their line up?

To me, the answers come from some combination of:

A) Get better OBP records from the 7/8/9 slots

B) Flip Le Mahieu or Judge ( Note: Torres doesn't come close to them with a career OBP of .338

C) OR just get a better high contact hitter by trading some of the guys who are, or soon will be, ceiling limited on this Yankees team

D) Concentrate on improving Voit and Sanchez as patient hitters.

Im not seeing the big upside on this concern. But I am sure I am missing something.

Good posts and thank you robbie

Without giving credit. Unless of course Giants79 is the author on 314.

Good thread, but should give credit where it is due.

In comment 14794890 02/03/2008 said:

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Without giving credit. Unless of course Giants79 is the author on 314. Good thread, but should give credit where it is due.

My apologies, reread it and expected to see a Link.

lineup is ordering it by OBP, descending order..

In comment 14794828 Nomad Crow on the Madison said:

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without Giancarlo Stanton. He is apparently a really nice guy, but he is a lousy baseball player.

He was the NL MVP just three years ago.

When he's right, he's a really good hitter.

Frightening, actually, if you're a pitcher, to have to face Judge and Stanton back to back if that's how the lineup goes. Line drives up the middle from those guys ...

That said, Stanton has to show he can play a complete and valuable season for the Yanks; fair to say that hasn't really happened yet.

rated Deivi's curve the best in the minors.

In comment 14794220 robbieballs2003 said:

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He should be batting 2nd or 3rd in the order. We have a lot of high OBP guys. We need LeMahieu to get more ABs with RISP. I'd rather let Judge leadoff.

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That worked so poorly last year...DJ leading off, geez.

In comment 14795270 Dunedin81 said:

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rated Deivi's curve the best in the minors.

.

That's nice, but the reality is until they prove it up here, they are all suspects down there...that's how I look
at it.

In comment 14795289 Carson53 said:

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In comment 14795270 Dunedin81 said: Quote: rated Deivi's curve the best in the minors. . That's nice, but the reality is until they prove it up here, they are all suspects down there...that's how I look at it.

Absolutely, but that sort of hype helps him to be valuable as a trade chip even now.

BP is the outlier and has him at 24. They have Jasson at 46 but they don't include Schmidt or Florial in their top 101.
Link - ( New Window )

PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT TWO WEEKS FROM TOMORROW!!!

that Andujar's medicals were pulled as the preliminary to a trade. No word as to destination, and it's not from anyone with much of a track record.

It’s for Krys Bryant.

The Yankees are going to add that contract? Is Happ going to the Cubs too?

Any opinions on the Marte trade? I would have thought the Pirates could have done better than that.

a fun read, even if I disagree with a good bit of it.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 14795466 Del Shofner said:

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PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORT TWO WEEKS FROM TOMORROW!!!

As beautiful as any words in any sport!

In comment 14795707 arniefez said:

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The Yankees are going to add that contract? Is Happ going to the Cubs too? Any opinions on the Marte trade? I would have thought the Pirates could have done better than that.

I'm guessing that the Yanks have concluded that once you go over the third luxury tax barrier, you may as well go all in. What's another $18.6M once you are over?

that he was saying was Andjuar to Atlanta for prospects to stock back down at the farm. Reminiscent of the Mike Lowell trade to the Marlins back in the day for pitching prospects (Ed Yarnall, Mark Johnson, and Todd Noel).

The Lowell trade actually wasn't a bad idea in practice, to add 3 arms (Yarnall was a good prospect), but all 3 of those guys didn't pan out and Lowell became and All Star.

In this case, the Scott Brosius is Gio Urshela.

In comment 14796123 Matt in SGS said:

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that he was saying was Andjuar to Atlanta for prospects to stock back down at the farm. Reminiscent of the Mike Lowell trade to the Marlins back in the day for pitching prospects (Ed Yarnall, Mark Johnson, and Todd Noel). The Lowell trade actually wasn't a bad idea in practice, to add 3 arms (Yarnall was a good prospect), but all 3 of those guys didn't pan out and Lowell became and All Star. In this case, the Scott Brosius is Gio Urshela.

It's certainly a possibility. Atlanta has a ton of pitching prospects. Of course, NYY does too, but not with the hype and (generally) not as close to the bigs as Atlanta's.

what it would cost to get Arenado. He has a full no trade and force his way to where he wants to play.

1. DJ
2. Judge
3. Torres
4. Stanton
5. Voit
6. Sanchez
7. Ford
8. Gio
9. Gardner

They could be waiting until some competitors for talent empty out their bullets for Betts or Lindor or Bryant or Arenado so their own offers are the best of what is left.

If I am Cashman I want ( if I can get it at the right price) a high contact infielder who can play more than one position and one more very good bullpen arm to the Yankees once again vault to the best bullpen in the game level ( its been their MO for a long time and relying on Chapman and Britton without another strong possibility has not been Cashmans MO)

Be on the lookout for getting another catcher
In the system

...widely considered to be a win for the Yankees. Lowell was considered overaged for a prospect (25 or 26, I think) and Yarnall and Noel were highly regarded. Yarnall was IL Pitcher of the Year and Noel was a fireballer who flirted with triple digits on the gun. As it turned out, Yarnall was a AAAA pitcher and Noel got hurt, and Lowell was better than anyone expected.

I can remember Rob Neyer in particular lauding the deal, saying something like "Brian Cashman fleeced Dave Dombrowski, which should frighten the rest of the league".

In comment 14796170 Bill2 said:

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Be on the lookout for getting another catcher In the system

They stashed a couple AAAA types (Erik Kratz, for one), and the farm is percolating a few toward the high minors. Not elite prospects, to be sure, but guys who could end up being quality backups in a year or two.

Don’t you think he’ll be a capable backup?

In comment 14796123 Matt in SGS said:

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that he was saying was Andjuar to Atlanta for prospects to stock back down at the farm. Reminiscent of the Mike Lowell trade to the Marlins back in the day for pitching prospects (Ed Yarnall, Mark Johnson, and Todd Noel). The Lowell trade actually wasn't a bad idea in practice, to add 3 arms (Yarnall was a good prospect), but all 3 of those guys didn't pan out and Lowell became and All Star. In this case, the Scott Brosius is Gio Urshela.

Andujar is cost controlled and a great hitter, problem is with below average D he is a problematic fit on the team.

Build redundancy in their system.

So it's not doubts about Higgy. It's what happens when Gary misses time ( as happens often enough).

Getting a better 3rd choice if it can be done is not essential but it is a good idea on a wish list. Imo

In comment 14796179 BrianLeonard23 said:

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Don’t you think he’ll be a capable backup?

I have high hopes for him, he killed the ball last year at AAA (of course, so did a lot of other hitters) and he's always been a good pitch framer. But Sanchez will likely hit the DL at some point and it's useful to have some redundancy, as Bill says.

Definition

OPS+ takes a player's on-base plus slugging percentage and normalizes the number across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks. It then adjusts so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average.

Player 1 / 129
Player 2 / 133

Guess which are Gio and Arenado?

people assert with great confidence what impact a one-off ballpark makes but I just don't buy it. Like defensive metrics they're useful but they're simply not definitive.

What are the odds of player 1 improving on those numbers 5 years in a row or player 2 matching those numbers once over the next 5 years?

In comment 14796229 Dunedin81 said:

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people assert with great confidence what impact a one-off ballpark makes but I just don't buy it. Like defensive metrics they're useful but they're simply not definitive.

Coors Field is definately the exception - you can't dispute the impact of the hitting a baseball at 5,200+ feet above sea level.

Did you ever watch the Firestone PGA Golf Championship where players regularly drive the ball 400+ yards - 70 plus yards more than all the other PGA tour stops on average?

and I doubt even Cashman thought DJLM's 2019 was possible. Just tough to project away from there. Of course, also tough to project Gio coming off a one-off year with a juice ball.

In comment 14796231 arniefez said:

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What are the odds of player 1 improving on those numbers 5 years in a row or player 2 matching those numbers once over the next 5 years?

Good question... The answer is simple, it's not worth 260 million dollars to find out - I'll hold Gio and play my hand.

In comment 14796237 Dunedin81 said:

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and I doubt even Cashman thought DJLM's 2019 was possible. Just tough to project away from there. Of course, also tough to project Gio coming off a one-off year with a juice ball.

That's why its critical to look at road splits.

In comment 14796234 JPinstripes said:

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In comment 14796229 Dunedin81 said: Quote: people assert with great confidence what impact a one-off ballpark makes but I just don't buy it. Like defensive metrics they're useful but they're simply not definitive. Coors Field is definately the exception - you can't dispute the impact of the hitting a baseball at 5,200+ feet above sea level. Did you ever watch the Firestone PGA Golf Championship where players regularly drive the ball 400+ yards - 70 plus yards more than all the other PGA tour stops on average?

Friend of mine lived in Denver area and said add 10% to your drives up in the Rockies..

In comment 14796319 section125 said:

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In comment 14796234 JPinstripes said: Quote: In comment 14796229 Dunedin81 said: Quote: people assert with great confidence what impact a one-off ballpark makes but I just don't buy it. Like defensive metrics they're useful but they're simply not definitive. Coors Field is definately the exception - you can't dispute the impact of the hitting a baseball at 5,200+ feet above sea level. Did you ever watch the Firestone PGA Golf Championship where players regularly drive the ball 400+ yards - 70 plus yards more than all the other PGA tour stops on average? Friend of mine lived in Denver area and said add 10% to your drives up in the Rockies..

Its a double whammy. The lack of air resistance both helps the ball travel farther AND takes away from pitches that break. I used to win so many fantasy leagues when the Rockies first came into the league because most people still didn't catch on to just how dramatic the effect was.

In comment 14796296 Pheonix Orion said:

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In comment 14796237 Dunedin81 said: Quote: and I doubt even Cashman thought DJLM's 2019 was possible. Just tough to project away from there. Of course, also tough to project Gio coming off a one-off year with a juice ball. That's why its critical to look at road splits.

But even road splits aren't entirely predictive because Rockies players tend to do worse on the road than they do before and after their time in Colorado because it's a difficult in-season and game to game transition to make. But yeah, definitely something to look at.

In comment 14796501 Dunedin81 said:

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In comment 14796296 Pheonix Orion said: Quote: In comment 14796237 Dunedin81 said: Quote: and I doubt even Cashman thought DJLM's 2019 was possible. Just tough to project away from there. Of course, also tough to project Gio coming off a one-off year with a juice ball. That's why its critical to look at road splits. But even road splits aren't entirely predictive because Rockies players tend to do worse on the road than they do before and after their time in Colorado because it's a difficult in-season and game to game transition to make. But yeah, definitely something to look at.

Great point Duned. The home conditions probably screws then up a bit when they go on the road.

either because it didn't exist to begin with, because it is delayed, or because the medicals were problematic.

In comment 14797062 Dunedin81 said:

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either because it didn't exist to begin with, because it is delayed, or because the medicals were problematic.

I tend to think it never existed in an realistic term. Not that Cash would look, just that beyond a feeler it never moved.

lost his service time grievance. I have no idea if NYY are really a realistic destination for him, but the unknown has effectively been removed from the equation and his trade market is probably one step closer to resolved.