Views from 314 posted some various Yankee lineups. They all gotta make you smile, but which one do you like best?
option 1: the standard, where Judge is your #2.
1. DJ LeMahieu, 2B
2. Aaron Judge, RF
3. Giancarlo Stanton, LF
4. Gary Sanchez, C
5. Gleyber Torres, SS
6. Luke Voit, 1B
7. Miguel Andujar, DH
8. Gio Urshela, 3B
9. Brett Gardner, CF
option 2: old school, high on base/contact guy at the top, power in the middle
1. Brett Gardner, CF
2. DJ LeMahieu, 2B
3. Aaron Judge, RF
4. Giancarlo Stanton, LF
5. Gary Sanchez, C
6. Gleyber Torres, SS
7. Luke Voit, 1B
8. Miguel Andujar, DH
9. Gio Urshela, 3B
option 3: the frisky
1. Brett Gardner, CF
2. DJ LeMahieu, 2B
3. Gleyber Torres, SS
4. Aaron Judge, RF
5. Giancarlo Stanton, LF
6. Gary Sanchez, C
7. Luke Voit, 1B
8. Miguel Andujar, DH
9. Gio Urshela, 3B
unlike the NFL draft talk, there doesn't seem to be a wrong answer here, just a which one is best discussion.
1. DJ LeMahieu, 2B
2. Aaron Judge, RF
3. Gleyber Torres, SS
4. Giancarlo Stanton, LF
5. Gary Sanchez, C
6. Luke Voit, 1B
7. Miguel Andujar, DH
8. Gio Urshela, 3B
9. Brett Gardner, CF
Get DJ as many at-bats as possible from the leadoff spot, plus when the line up turns over he will have a combination of Andujar, Gio, and Gardy hitting in front of him which should lead to many opportunities to hit with runners on base.
Quote:
He should be batting 2nd or 3rd in the order. We have a lot of high OBP guys. We need LeMahieu to get more ABs with RISP. I'd rather let Judge leadoff.
Get DJ as many at-bats as possible from the leadoff spot, plus when the line up turns over he will have a combination of Andujar, Gio, and Gardy hitting in front of him which should lead to many opportunities to hit with runners on base.
100% disagree. I agree with as many at bats as possible but he needs to be in a spot where he gets more ABs with runners on. So, just because he gets an extra 20 ABs a year from the leadoff spot as opposed to the number 2 or 3 spot also means he has approximately 162 potentially ABs with 0 players on base.
Bad idea - why move Gleyber into the 2 hole with his paltry 337 OBP and drop Judge and his 390 OBP??? No thanks.
Gleyber should be hitting 5/6 and a healthy Voit should be in consideration for top 5 with his high OBP.
Quote:
In comment 14794220 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
He should be batting 2nd or 3rd in the order. We have a lot of high OBP guys. We need LeMahieu to get more ABs with RISP. I'd rather let Judge leadoff.
Get DJ as many at-bats as possible from the leadoff spot, plus when the line up turns over he will have a combination of Andujar, Gio, and Gardy hitting in front of him which should lead to many opportunities to hit with runners on base.
100% disagree. I agree with as many at bats as possible but he needs to be in a spot where he gets more ABs with runners on. So, just because he gets an extra 20 ABs a year from the leadoff spot as opposed to the number 2 or 3 spot also means he has approximately 162 potentially ABs with 0 players on base.
Highest OBP hitters getting as many at bats as possible = most runs scored. It's not that deep.
Quote:
In comment 14794228 JPinstripes said:
Quote:
In comment 14794220 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
He should be batting 2nd or 3rd in the order. We have a lot of high OBP guys. We need LeMahieu to get more ABs with RISP. I'd rather let Judge leadoff.
Get DJ as many at-bats as possible from the leadoff spot, plus when the line up turns over he will have a combination of Andujar, Gio, and Gardy hitting in front of him which should lead to many opportunities to hit with runners on base.
100% disagree. I agree with as many at bats as possible but he needs to be in a spot where he gets more ABs with runners on. So, just because he gets an extra 20 ABs a year from the leadoff spot as opposed to the number 2 or 3 spot also means he has approximately 162 potentially ABs with 0 players on base.
Highest OBP hitters getting as many at bats as possible = most runs scored. It's not that deep.
So, why not Judge 1st and LeMahieu 2nd? Nobody is going to convince me that LeMahieu should be batting leadoff on this team. We have high OBP guys. We don't have a ton of guys that excel at both OBP and hitting with RISP. Hitting with RISP is something this team struggles with hence it is more important for this particular team to get those guys up with RISP as many times as possible not necessarily the most ABs.
I'm not getting into an analytics debate with anyone - go read Fangraphs blogs and other babseball analyitics / advanced stats sites that have tons of data on this subject as do the Yankees, which is why they bat DJ 1st and Judge 2nd...
I'm not getting into an analytics debate with anyone - go read Fangraphs blogs and other babseball analyitics / advanced stats sites that have tons of data on this subject as do the Yankees, which is why they bat DJ 1st and Judge 2nd...
I get why he is there. I just completely disagree with it. Teams put their best hitters in the 2 hole after years of having them either 3rd, 4th, or 5th. LeMahieu should be our 2 hole hitter. We don't need him to be the OB guy. He can be both the OB guy and run producer.
2.Judge
3.Torres
4.Stanton
5.Sanchex
6.Voit
7.Andyajar
8.Urshela
9.Gardner
2. Judge
3. Voit
4. Stanton
5. Torres
6. El Gary
7. Gardner
8. Gio
9. Andujar
When Hicks returns
1. DJ
2. Judge
3. Hicks
4. Stanton
5. Voit
6. Torres
7. El Gary
8. Gio
9. Andujar
With that said, DJ followed the 2016 season with two seasons that while not terrible, were nowhere near the level of 2016. In fact, it was a rather pedestrian 2018 that lead to the Yanks being able to sign DJ for a relative bargain.
That's a long way of saying that fans should not automatically assume that the 2019 version of DJ will be what we should expect in 2020. In fact, I would suggest that many should lower their expectations and should instead be expecting something closer to his 2017 numbers- albeit with more power, as he figured out how to go to RF.
The second thing is that I think any lineup where you bat Sanchez ahead of Voit is a mistake. Voit, when healthy, has demonstrated a high OBP, high SLG approach that Sanchez has never demonstrated.
Sanchez should be in the bottom third of the lineup- which isn't really a knock on Sanchez- with most other teams, he's a 4-6 hitter. With the Yanks current lineup, it is VERY difficult to make the case that he is one of their top 6 hitters.
DJ
Torres
Stanton
Andujar
Ford/Voight
Urshela
Sanchez
Hicks/Gardner
When Sanchez shows he is more then a 200 hitter that whiffs on the outside in the dirt pitch and can be a selective smart hitter then he moves up. Until then he sits at the bottom because that's how he hits relative to the other players. Hopefully he will mature and move up though I am not holding my breath
DJ
Judge
Torres
Stanton
Voit (the following two can swap 5,6,7 positions)
Andujar
Sanchez
Gio
Gardner/Hicks/Tauchman
Let the combination or who is hot and what the analytics guys say per match up should flex the 4-7 parts of the lineup.
Hoping Wade shows enough to get 9 spot
Still think that if there is a high contact left handed infielder with decent fielding before the trade deadline, Cashman will get into the mix.
Hard to believe that some combination of Happ/German/ Frazier/Andujar/Ford/Estrada isn't going to get packaged for an RP or a high contact/good field infield hitter. Also imagine we have eyes on catchers
1. DJ LeMahieu, 2B
2. Aaron Judge, RF
3. Gleyber Torres, SS
4. Giancarlo Stanton, LF
5. Miguel Andujar, DH
6. Gary Sanchez, C
7. Luke Voit 1B
8. Gio Urshela, 3B
9. Brett Gardner, CF
DJ
Judge
Torres
Stanton
Voit (the following two can swap 5,6,7 positions)
Andujar
Sanchez
Gio
Gardner/Hicks/Tauchman
Just saw yours and we are thinking the same way
Quote:
9th and when Hicks comes back he can stay there because he isn't much better as far as I am concerned.
DJ
Judge
Torres
Stanton
Voit (the following two can swap 5,6,7 positions)
Andujar
Sanchez
Gio
Gardner/Hicks/Tauchman
Just saw yours and we are thinking the same way
I have Voit 5th because he is a high obp and low K rate.
Quote:
In comment 14794323 section125 said:
Quote:
9th and when Hicks comes back he can stay there because he isn't much better as far as I am concerned.
DJ
Judge
Torres
Stanton
Voit (the following two can swap 5,6,7 positions)
Andujar
Sanchez
Gio
Gardner/Hicks/Tauchman
Just saw yours and we are thinking the same way
I have Voit 5th because he is a high obp and low K rate.
No issue with that either. I prefer Gary no higher than 6 until he shows more consistent contact rate
Quote:
In comment 14794362 Pheonix Orion said:
Quote:
In comment 14794323 section125 said:
Quote:
9th and when Hicks comes back he can stay there because he isn't much better as far as I am concerned.
DJ
Judge
Torres
Stanton
Voit (the following two can swap 5,6,7 positions)
Andujar
Sanchez
Gio
Gardner/Hicks/Tauchman
Just saw yours and we are thinking the same way
I have Voit 5th because he is a high obp and low K rate.
No issue with that either. I prefer Gary no higher than 6 until he shows more consistent contact rate
Yep
I want Voit in the top 5 and Sancchez 6th or 7th. Gardner Should Not bat higher than 9th and neither should Hicks.
Quote:
LeMahieu, Torres, Judge, Andujar, Stanton, Voit, Sanchez, Urshella, Gardner. Old school, new school, make sense school.
Bad idea - why move Gleyber into the 2 hole with his paltry 337 OBP and drop Judge and his 390 OBP??? No thanks.
Gleyber should be hitting 5/6 and a healthy Voit should be in consideration for top 5 with his high OBP.
Torres should definitely be above Sanchez as long as Gary keeps trying to hit every ball 450 feet. He and Voit have both changed their approach dramatically from their first year, where they were incredibly successful going the other way. Now both try to pull everything and hit it a mile.
In fact, I'd put both Torres and Andujar (if he looks the same in Spring Training) in front of Sanchez and Voit, because both consistently put the ball in play. LeMahieu's OBP was 50 points above his average. Torres' OBP was 60 points above his average. Torres nearly doubled Voit's HR total and had 25 fewer K's in 30 more ABs last year. Heck, I'd put Torres ahead of Stanton (same OBP, 60 fewer K's in 2019 than Stanton in 2018 in 60 fewer ABs).
Quote:
In comment 14794229 PaulN said:
Quote:
LeMahieu, Torres, Judge, Andujar, Stanton, Voit, Sanchez, Urshella, Gardner. Old school, new school, make sense school.
Bad idea - why move Gleyber into the 2 hole with his paltry 337 OBP and drop Judge and his 390 OBP??? No thanks.
Gleyber should be hitting 5/6 and a healthy Voit should be in consideration for top 5 with his high OBP.
Torres should definitely be above Sanchez as long as Gary keeps trying to hit every ball 450 feet. He and Voit have both changed their approach dramatically from their first year, where they were incredibly successful going the other way. Now both try to pull everything and hit it a mile.
In fact, I'd put both Torres and Andujar (if he looks the same in Spring Training) in front of Sanchez and Voit, because both consistently put the ball in play. LeMahieu's OBP was 50 points above his average. Torres' OBP was 60 points above his average. Torres nearly doubled Voit's HR total and had 25 fewer K's in 30 more ABs last year. Heck, I'd put Torres ahead of Stanton (same OBP, 60 fewer K's in 2019 than Stanton in 2018 in 60 fewer ABs).
Voit's OBP was still very high .378 even with the rib injury so not sure your observation is correct...
They're also lower than what Gio did last year 1:3.5 K rate 133 OPS+ 314/355/534/889.
All of us are doubtful Gio can repeat but the odds are probably greater of Gio hitting well enough to stay at 3B than Andujar fielding well enough to stay at 3B.
Look I don't hate the guy. I want him to do well. I'd be thrilled if he turned into Graig Nettles who was also a lousy 3B his first few years in MLB. But I think I have a better shot at winning Powerball.
They're also lower than what Gio did last year 1:3.5 K rate 133 OPS+ 314/355/534/889.
All of us are doubtful Gio can repeat but the odds are probably greater of Gio hitting well enough to stay at 3B than Andujar fielding well enough to stay at 3B.
Look I don't hate the guy. I want him to do well. I'd be thrilled if he turned into Graig Nettles who was also a lousy 3B his first few years in MLB. But I think I have a better shot at winning Powerball.
Andujar is a very bad fielder. He will need to get good enough hopefully at 1B or LF. Stanton and Sanchez will also need DH time.
I want Voit in the top 5 and Sancchez 6th or 7th. Gardner Should Not bat higher than 9th and neither should Hicks.
Because LeMahieu is a beast. Even if he doesn't get a hit he is productive with his ABs. I don't need an all or nothing guy. I need a guy that is reliable.
Granting the time injured and the weeks coming back from injury;
Judge 2019 OBP: .381
Judge Career OBP: .394
Judge Career Number of walks per 164 games: 113
DJ LeMahieu 2019 OBP: .375
DJ LeMahieu Career OBP: .354
DJ LeMahieu Career Number of walks per 164 games: 48
What am I missing that's truly a substantive reason to switch them?
I grant the SO by Judge are high and I grant last years RISP by LeMahieu; but does anyone have a better 1-2 at the top of their line up?
To me, the answers come from some combination of:
A) Get better OBP records from the 7/8/9 slots
B) Flip Le Mahieu or Judge ( Note: Torres doesn't come close to them with a career OBP of .338
C) OR just get a better high contact hitter by trading some of the guys who are, or soon will be, ceiling limited on this Yankees team
D) Concentrate on improving Voit and Sanchez as patient hitters.
Im not seeing the big upside on this concern. But I am sure I am missing something.
Good posts and thank you robbie
Good thread, but should give credit where it is due.
Good thread, but should give credit where it is due.
My apologies, reread it and expected to see a Link.
He was the NL MVP just three years ago.
Frightening, actually, if you're a pitcher, to have to face Judge and Stanton back to back if that's how the lineup goes. Line drives up the middle from those guys ...
That said, Stanton has to show he can play a complete and valuable season for the Yanks; fair to say that hasn't really happened yet.
That worked so poorly last year...DJ leading off, geez.
That's nice, but the reality is until they prove it up here, they are all suspects down there...that's how I look
at it.
Quote:
rated Deivi's curve the best in the minors.
.
That's nice, but the reality is until they prove it up here, they are all suspects down there...that's how I look
at it.
Absolutely, but that sort of hype helps him to be valuable as a trade chip even now.
Link - ( New Window )
Any opinions on the Marte trade? I would have thought the Pirates could have done better than that.
Link - ( New Window )
As beautiful as any words in any sport!
Any opinions on the Marte trade? I would have thought the Pirates could have done better than that.
I'm guessing that the Yanks have concluded that once you go over the third luxury tax barrier, you may as well go all in. What's another $18.6M once you are over?
The Lowell trade actually wasn't a bad idea in practice, to add 3 arms (Yarnall was a good prospect), but all 3 of those guys didn't pan out and Lowell became and All Star.
In this case, the Scott Brosius is Gio Urshela.
The Lowell trade actually wasn't a bad idea in practice, to add 3 arms (Yarnall was a good prospect), but all 3 of those guys didn't pan out and Lowell became and All Star.
In this case, the Scott Brosius is Gio Urshela.
It's certainly a possibility. Atlanta has a ton of pitching prospects. Of course, NYY does too, but not with the hype and (generally) not as close to the bigs as Atlanta's.
2. Judge
3. Torres
4. Stanton
5. Voit
6. Sanchez
7. Ford
8. Gio
9. Gardner
If I am Cashman I want ( if I can get it at the right price) a high contact infielder who can play more than one position and one more very good bullpen arm to the Yankees once again vault to the best bullpen in the game level ( its been their MO for a long time and relying on Chapman and Britton without another strong possibility has not been Cashmans MO)
In the system
I can remember Rob Neyer in particular lauding the deal, saying something like "Brian Cashman fleeced Dave Dombrowski, which should frighten the rest of the league".
In the system
They stashed a couple AAAA types (Erik Kratz, for one), and the farm is percolating a few toward the high minors. Not elite prospects, to be sure, but guys who could end up being quality backups in a year or two.
The Lowell trade actually wasn't a bad idea in practice, to add 3 arms (Yarnall was a good prospect), but all 3 of those guys didn't pan out and Lowell became and All Star.
In this case, the Scott Brosius is Gio Urshela.
Andujar is cost controlled and a great hitter, problem is with below average D he is a problematic fit on the team.
So it's not doubts about Higgy. It's what happens when Gary misses time ( as happens often enough).
Getting a better 3rd choice if it can be done is not essential but it is a good idea on a wish list. Imo
I have high hopes for him, he killed the ball last year at AAA (of course, so did a lot of other hitters) and he's always been a good pitch framer. But Sanchez will likely hit the DL at some point and it's useful to have some redundancy, as Bill says.
OPS+ takes a player's on-base plus slugging percentage and normalizes the number across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks. It then adjusts so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average.
Player 1 / 129
Player 2 / 133
Guess which are Gio and Arenado?
Coors Field is definately the exception - you can't dispute the impact of the hitting a baseball at 5,200+ feet above sea level.
Did you ever watch the Firestone PGA Golf Championship where players regularly drive the ball 400+ yards - 70 plus yards more than all the other PGA tour stops on average?
Good question... The answer is simple, it's not worth 260 million dollars to find out - I'll hold Gio and play my hand.
That's why its critical to look at road splits.
Quote:
people assert with great confidence what impact a one-off ballpark makes but I just don't buy it. Like defensive metrics they're useful but they're simply not definitive.
Coors Field is definately the exception - you can't dispute the impact of the hitting a baseball at 5,200+ feet above sea level.
Did you ever watch the Firestone PGA Golf Championship where players regularly drive the ball 400+ yards - 70 plus yards more than all the other PGA tour stops on average?
Friend of mine lived in Denver area and said add 10% to your drives up in the Rockies..
Quote:
In comment 14796229 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
people assert with great confidence what impact a one-off ballpark makes but I just don't buy it. Like defensive metrics they're useful but they're simply not definitive.
Coors Field is definately the exception - you can't dispute the impact of the hitting a baseball at 5,200+ feet above sea level.
Did you ever watch the Firestone PGA Golf Championship where players regularly drive the ball 400+ yards - 70 plus yards more than all the other PGA tour stops on average?
Friend of mine lived in Denver area and said add 10% to your drives up in the Rockies..
Its a double whammy. The lack of air resistance both helps the ball travel farther AND takes away from pitches that break. I used to win so many fantasy leagues when the Rockies first came into the league because most people still didn't catch on to just how dramatic the effect was.
Quote:
and I doubt even Cashman thought DJLM's 2019 was possible. Just tough to project away from there. Of course, also tough to project Gio coming off a one-off year with a juice ball.
That's why its critical to look at road splits.
But even road splits aren't entirely predictive because Rockies players tend to do worse on the road than they do before and after their time in Colorado because it's a difficult in-season and game to game transition to make. But yeah, definitely something to look at.
Quote:
In comment 14796237 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
and I doubt even Cashman thought DJLM's 2019 was possible. Just tough to project away from there. Of course, also tough to project Gio coming off a one-off year with a juice ball.
That's why its critical to look at road splits.
But even road splits aren't entirely predictive because Rockies players tend to do worse on the road than they do before and after their time in Colorado because it's a difficult in-season and game to game transition to make. But yeah, definitely something to look at.
Great point Duned. The home conditions probably screws then up a bit when they go on the road.
I tend to think it never existed in an realistic term. Not that Cash would look, just that beyond a feeler it never moved.