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Game theory & expectations for trade down haul- longgg

V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 1:27 pm
Prior to draft day, I wanted to see what I thought was fair value before any trade transpired. In fairness to the front office, this is the intellectually honest approach, as opposed to Monday Morning Quarterbacking. I came away disappointed with our haul from the traditional trade value charts. Even after stretching the scenario analysis below through some game theory, it still looks unlikely that we get the massive haul that I think the broader group was expecting. I for one have drastically lowered my expectations, with the upside of being pleasently surprised.

If we look at the all the 2019 Trades, the Jimmy Johnson trade chart is for the most part within +/- 10%. Still some say with the new CBA, 5th year options etc, that chart needs updating, for example the Rich Hill value chart. I believe the latter works better on later picks.

Unfortunately, both charts really deflated my initial perception of the 4th pick value... For example, for MIA to move up one spot, a high 3rd would be considered great value for NYG. That's really not terribly exciting. The problem is the value drop right at the 4th pick... By JJ's chart:
--every pick from 1-4 is 400 pts lower
--whereas from 4-8 every pick is only 100 points lower.

So in order for this to be a better outcome, we have to hope that the competition for QB changes the traditional game theory model - specifically to more of a 'metagame' or 'confrontational' approach. Those game theory models and acceptance of their qualitative factors, could yield results considered irrational according to traditional game theory mathematical models (trade chart), yet still work for both parties.

Defining Giants success as two scenarios
1) We land Chase Young at 4
2) We earn more than 20% JJ value in a trade down.

Key Assumptions
1) Chase Young is the best player in the draft
2) CIN takes Burrow (if CIN trade outs -& gt; no value to moving to 4)
3) WAS will not trade with NYG
4) CAR/LAC want to trade up for QB
5) Brady stays in NE (so LAC needs to draft)
6) DET may take a QB
7) Tepper will not be boxed by JJ's 30yr old trade chart

These last two assumptions are key. Based on what Tepper paid Rhule, he is a guy that takes his own counsel. Admittedly, coaching salaries are not a fixed resource like the cap or draft picks... but it does show a willingness to be unconventional - which is the necessary but not sufficient component of the metagame.

Scenarios
Here is a matrix showing what each team would have to trade to move up fair value [and NYG value received to win the game].


1) DET does not want a QB
-MIA controls the game with all their picks
-MIA offers 5,18, and a 2nd in 2021 for 2 and 105
-MIA offers 5,26, and a 2nd in 2021 for 3 and 67
-While MIA is negotiating for #2
-CAR knows it's hard to compete for #2
-CAR moves hard FIRST for #3 (w/bonus WAS doesn't trade out)
-CAR offers 7/38, '21 1st for #3

Here is where the large haul scenarios become possible.
--MIA pulls of trade for #2 -& gt; leaving Young to NYG
--WAS does not trade, takes Young
-& gt;MIA and LAC now have to pay up in the form of a 2nd rounder to move up 1/2 spots ( ~20% premiums) possibly another first which would be a huge haul

2) DET wants a QB / WAS trades out
--Teams pay up for WAS pick
--NYG get Young (possible NYG moves up for small value)

3) DET wants a QB / WAS takes Young
--Three teams (CAR/JAX/MIA) compete (bid up) for 1 spot

4) Neither DET or WAS trade out, the biggest possible haul.

Conclusions
1) Most likely Trade down scenario is at best netting a 2nd rounder
2) Most likely path to NYG game win is Chase Young
--Two QB teams move ahead of NYG
--One team moves ahead, DET takes a QB
3) Achieving more than a 2nd rounder, will be difficult but possible
4) Tepper is key
the chart  
V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 1:27 pm : link
Good of you to cite your sources and use two different ones,  
CT Charlie : 2/6/2020 1:35 pm : link
but how scientific or reliable are these charts, really? Coaches and GMs wheel & deal, period. Like anything at any open auction, the value of a pick is exactly what someone is willing to give for it.
I don't see a HAUL  
uther99 : 2/6/2020 1:41 pm : link
of picks coming. The trade charts say otherwise, and despite the "screw the chart" folks, it is based on reality.

Maybe Giants can get two firsts from Raiders or Jags.
What game theory could possibly predict the irrationality of  
Spider56 : 2/6/2020 1:48 pm : link
Certain NFL owners ? These guys are used to getting what they want in life, at any cost ... So if only seasoned professional football minds are calling the shots itís one thing ... but once the billionaires get involved itís another story ...
RE: I don't see a HAUL  
Section331 : 2/6/2020 1:50 pm : link
In comment 14805122 uther99 said:
Quote:
of picks coming. The trade charts say otherwise, and despite the "screw the chart" folks, it is based on reality.

Maybe Giants can get two firsts from Raiders or Jags.


You're probably right, but you never know what can happen when you have 2 or more teams motivated to move up. I do agree with VIG that getting similar value to the JJ chart is a mistake. Even assuming those values are still valid, teams should pay a premium to move up, especially for a QB.
RE: RE: I don't see a HAUL  
uther99 : 2/6/2020 1:53 pm : link
In comment 14805146 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 14805122 uther99 said:


Quote:


of picks coming. The trade charts say otherwise, and despite the "screw the chart" folks, it is based on reality.

Maybe Giants can get two firsts from Raiders or Jags.



You're probably right, but you never know what can happen when you have 2 or more teams motivated to move up. I do agree with VIG that getting similar value to the JJ chart is a mistake. Even assuming those values are still valid, teams should pay a premium to move up, especially for a QB.


Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.
If you have the time to do it  
allstarjim : 2/6/2020 1:59 pm : link
I would analyze all trades involving trading up into the top 5 picks for specifically a QB, and see how much more the buyers paid relative to chart value.

I think that is a reasonable way to assess what the Giants should expect.

It also should be noted again, that it would seem that for the top 3 QBs only, which seems to be the top tier as we sit here on February 6th, there does seem to be more buyers or QB needy teams than there are than that top tier of QBs, which again, seems to be 3.

Obviously buyers pay more in a seller's market. However, several things can take shape that would dramatically shift the market. First is free agency and any pre-draft trades involving quarterbacks. Nobody is really talking about it now, but the Bengals conceivably trade or release Andy Dalton. Obviously, where does Carr, Brady, and Rivers land? How do guys like Fromm, Love, and Eason do in this pre-draft evaluation stage? Some buyers may be content to take one of these players and keep their draft capital than move up for Herbert if they have a positive evaluation on more than just the assumed top 3 QBs. So the market today for the QB position will be different than on draft day.

If the NYG trade  
Dnew15 : 2/6/2020 2:00 pm : link
down 1-5 spots and net a 2nd rounder - I look at that as a win.

Obviously there's a long way to go before things shake out for sure - but I don't think there's much of a drop off in talent between say pick #5-#10 (and beyond).

Maybe a OT separates from the pack during the time up to the draft.
OR maybe Okudah or Simmons answers some questions about their game...

BUT as it stands right now - I don't see it.
From what I have seen, the trade value charts differ vastly  
Leg of Theismann : 2/6/2020 2:15 pm : link
when there are franchise QBs in the mix. For instance, in 2018, Indy got THREE 2nd rounders from the Jets to move from #3 back to #6, and the Bucs got TWO 2nd rounders from the Bills to move from #7 back to #12. That kind of value (especially the Indy/NYJ scenario) was much higher than most trade value charts I've ever seen.

That's why I've been so in favor of trading down.

1) Tua and Herbert will be coveted, and when a team feels they can get a franchise QB that they can depend on the next 10-15 years and they feel can deliver them a Championship, the lucky team sitting in the spot that team needs to target to move up and grab said QB can get a franchise-changing amount of value.

2) I don't believe there is any obvious pick at #4. If Young is available, I'd take him. I would consider taking a Okudah at #4 if he's there, but if he's not there I think trading down is 100% a no-brainer. The value from #4 thru #10 in this specific draft feels very even to me.

3) Dolphins, Panthers, Chargers all need a QB, and you can argue the Jags at #9 do as well. Both the Dolphins and Jags have multiple 1st round picks to work with this year.

The math does seem to be adding up to a trade-down being very realistic.
Think about it...  
Leg of Theismann : 2/6/2020 2:18 pm : link
A lot of people thought Herbert would have been the #1 overall pick if he came out a year ago and he's only improved his stock since then I feel.

Tua has been discussed as a lock for #1 overall pick before his injury.

And Burrow IS the lock for #1 overall pick.

You have 3 QBs in this draft who have all been mentioned legitimately in the same sentence as "1st overall pick" at some point. We're already talking about all 3 of them going top 5 in the draft and it's early February! In my experience, QBs' draft stocks only rise as we get closer to Draft Day. Right? And QBs are always over-valued in the draft simply because a franchise guy is so hard to find. As things stand I think there is a very real possibility of all 3 guys going in the top 4, which would mean the Giants either a) get Chase Young or b) get what is likely a decent haul in a trade-down.
RE: From what I have seen, the trade value charts differ vastly  
uther99 : 2/6/2020 2:42 pm : link
In comment 14805203 Leg of Theismann said:
Quote:
when there are franchise QBs in the mix. For instance, in 2018, Indy got THREE 2nd rounders from the Jets to move from #3 back to #6, and the Bucs got TWO 2nd rounders from the Bills to move from #7 back to #12. That kind of value (especially the Indy/NYJ scenario) was much higher than most trade value charts I've ever seen.



Those two trades are at about 25% premium over the chart.
Unfortunately I dont see a big market for our pick  
Rudy5757 : 2/6/2020 2:56 pm : link
I think is a 2 QB draft right now and Herbert is a mid 1st rounder that may go sooner if he is there with a QB needy team. Tua has to check out OK and he will be the 2nd QB. Most of the time when a QB plays in the Senior Bowl its a sign they are not a top 10 pick or at least not a pick teams would be willing to trade up for.

Last season the Giants took Jones at 6 and no one wanted to trade up to get him despite teams needing QBs and Jones did well at the senior bowl just like Herbert. Carson Wentz was a top pick but the MVP that year Dak Prescott was a 4th rounder. I think teams are going to wait to see if Herbert drops to them rather than trade up. I didnt see anything from Herbert at the Senior Bowl to say he would be a great one, lots of short throws.
RE: If the NYG trade  
AcidTest : 2/6/2020 3:00 pm : link
In comment 14805169 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
down 1-5 spots and net a 2nd rounder - I look at that as a win.

Obviously there's a long way to go before things shake out for sure - but I don't think there's much of a drop off in talent between say pick #5-#10 (and beyond).

Maybe a OT separates from the pack during the time up to the draft.
OR maybe Okudah or Simmons answers some questions about their game...

BUT as it stands right now - I don't see it.


Agreed.
You're analysis has a core flaw  
Torrag : 2/6/2020 3:01 pm : link
You ignore history and based it solely on the trade value charts. The trade history when such picks are exchanged gives a much better feel for the general level of compensation required to acquire such coveted draft position. To obtain Top 5 picks requires a premium cost.

When the Jets swung a deal to acquire the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft to select Sam Darnold, they traded away the No. 6 pick and three 2nd rounders. A massive overpay based on the trade chart analysis. By the charts this years 2nd rounder would have been fair compensation.

The same was true in the Redskins trade up to acquire the No. 2 overall pick in 2012 to select Bob, they traded away their 2012 No. 6 pick with their 2nd round pick as well as 1st rounders in 2013 and 2014. Again a massive overpay by trade value charts.

History proves that where Top 5 picks and highly coveted QB's are in play the trade value charts are poor guidelines.
RE: RE: RE: I don't see a HAUL  
Section331 : 2/6/2020 3:02 pm : link
In comment 14805157 uther99 said:
Quote:

Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.


20% is a fine return.
Guys - the data involving QBs trades doesn't support that argument  
V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 3:12 pm : link
Colts crushed it
TB crushed it

others are with in 5% or lower of the trade chart...






If you play Miami, making them think you will trade to a team  
Bob in Newburgh : 2/6/2020 3:13 pm : link
that jumps them and picks Bama QB.

You should be able to pick up their 3, possibly 2 instead.

And for this, you pick the same guy at 5, you would have picked at 4.
RE: RE: RE: I don't see a HAUL  
V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 3:13 pm : link
In comment 14805157 uther99 said:
Quote:

Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.

and even that is an outlier... see above
RE: If you have the time to do it  
V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 3:14 pm : link
In comment 14805168 allstarjim said:
Quote:
I would analyze all trades involving trading up into the top 5 picks for specifically a QB, and see how much more the buyers paid relative to chart value.

see above, some outliers, but not such a monumental deviation from value chart...
RE: You're analysis has a core flaw  
V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 3:16 pm : link
In comment 14805306 Torrag said:
Quote:
You ignore history and based it solely on the trade value charts. The trade history when such picks are exchanged gives a much better feel for the general level of compensation required to acquire such coveted draft position. To obtain Top 5 picks requires a premium cost.

When the Jets swung a deal to acquire the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft to select Sam Darnold, they traded away the No. 6 pick and three 2nd rounders. A massive overpay based on the trade chart analysis. By the charts this years 2nd rounder would have been fair compensation.

The same was true in the Redskins trade up to acquire the No. 2 overall pick in 2012 to select Bob, they traded away their 2012 No. 6 pick with their 2nd round pick as well as 1st rounders in 2013 and 2014. Again a massive overpay by trade value charts.

History proves that where Top 5 picks and highly coveted QB's are in play the trade value charts are poor guidelines.

Skins was only a low teen kinda premium...
RE: If you play Miami, making them think you will trade to a team  
V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 3:20 pm : link
In comment 14805341 Bob in Newburgh said:
Quote:
that jumps them and picks Bama QB.

You should be able to pick up their 3, possibly 2 instead.

And for this, you pick the same guy at 5, you would have picked at 4.

all that's fine - my point was my expectations were much higher before i looked at the chart...

it could just be me, but before I ran the numbers my notion was a first from MIA was in the mix to move up 1 and protect from CAR/LAC. I think that's slim, and a 2nd is the more likely what we can expect.
I think there's a chance a haul could be had.  
FStubbs : 2/6/2020 3:22 pm : link
Unfortunately Detroit is in MUCH better position to get it than the Giants.

It seems to me, at least right now, that Burrow, Tua, and Herbert have more hype than the 2018 quarterbacks. As someone pointed out, all 3 have been associated with #1 overall at some point or another.

Obviously Burrow will go #1 to the Bengals (barring him saying he refuses to play for them) and Chase Young will go #2 to Washington. So it boils down to whether teams want a "#1 overall" level QB at 3-4 as to what kind of haul the Giants might get. If Detroit goes with Okudah at #3, it increases the odds that the Giants get a haul at #4.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I don't see a HAUL  
uther99 : 2/6/2020 3:37 pm : link
In comment 14805343 V.I.G. said:
Quote:
In comment 14805157 uther99 said:


Quote:



Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.


and even that is an outlier... see above


Are you discounting future picks by one round per year in the future?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I don't see a HAUL  
V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 3:39 pm : link
In comment 14805371 uther99 said:
Quote:
In comment 14805343 V.I.G. said:


Quote:


In comment 14805157 uther99 said:


Quote:



Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.


and even that is an outlier... see above



Are you discounting future picks by one round per year in the future?

Yes - since it's unknown what that pick would be I take the average of the 10 picks from that spot.
'Skins was only a low teen kinda premium...'  
Torrag : 2/6/2020 3:43 pm : link
Not accurate. By chart the cost should have been 1000 pts. The Skins 2nd(520pts) plus next years first approximating mid round value(1000pts) represented a 500 point overpay. They then included yet another 1st rounder again at mid round value(1000pts.). That is a massive overpay of 1520 total points or 150%. Interesting to note in this case the value ended up much higher as the 2014 pick was the eventual #2 overall selection.

Same goes for the Jets deal. Cost should have been in the 600 point range. By chart the Jets 2nd(520pts.) should have been nearly equal value. They then included 2 more 2nd rounders at mid round total value of(860pts.). Again for a massive total overpay of 780 points or 130%.
RE: 'Skins was only a low teen kinda premium...'  
uther99 : 2/6/2020 3:59 pm : link
In comment 14805388 Torrag said:
Quote:
Not accurate. By chart the cost should have been 1000 pts. The Skins 2nd(520pts) plus next years first approximating mid round value(1000pts) represented a 500 point overpay. They then included yet another 1st rounder again at mid round value(1000pts.). That is a massive overpay of 1520 total points or 150%. Interesting to note in this case the value ended up much higher as the 2014 pick was the eventual #2 overall selection.

Same goes for the Jets deal. Cost should have been in the 600 point range. By chart the Jets 2nd(520pts.) should have been nearly equal value. They then included 2 more 2nd rounders at mid round total value of(860pts.). Again for a massive total overpay of 780 points or 130%.


I was under impression that future picks are discounted by one round, one of the Jets 2nd rounders was a 2019 pick, so it was really worth a 3rd.
'I was under impression that future picks are discounted by one round'  
Torrag : 2/6/2020 4:07 pm : link
By that theory the #2 overall pick in 2014 would be counted as a 3rd rounder. Sorry, but that makes no sense whatsoever. You're getting that pick in that round correct? I've never seen a trade value chart that has a time devaluation factor. Has anyone?
RE: 'I was under impression that future picks are discounted by one round'  
V.I.G. : 2/6/2020 4:17 pm : link
In comment 14805427 Torrag said:
Quote:
By that theory the #2 overall pick in 2014 would be counted as a 3rd rounder. Sorry, but that makes no sense whatsoever. You're getting that pick in that round correct? I've never seen a trade value chart that has a time devaluation factor. Has anyone?

really? of course it's devalued.
1) you don't know what pick it will be
2) it's a year later or in the case of WAS, two years later

By your logic, I'll take your 2020 first rounder for my 2022 first rounder. Let's do this.
RE: 'I was under impression that future picks are discounted by one round'  
uther99 : 2/6/2020 4:17 pm : link
In comment 14805427 Torrag said:
Quote:
By that theory the #2 overall pick in 2014 would be counted as a 3rd rounder. Sorry, but that makes no sense whatsoever. You're getting that pick in that round correct? I've never seen a trade value chart that has a time devaluation factor. Has anyone?


Here are a couple sources suggesting this practice

Rich Hill

https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill

over the cap

https://overthecap.com/tag/draft-pick-values/
IMO, when it's a trade up for a QB  
montanagiant : 2/6/2020 4:50 pm : link
The value of the pick is higher than the chart
You're right  
Gman11 : 2/6/2020 6:55 pm : link
it is long.
A trade down past 6 has to bring at least 2 added second day picks.  
Ivan15 : 2/6/2020 8:56 pm : link
Not worth doing otherwise.
This is a good thread  
Prude : 2/7/2020 9:20 am : link
Everyone is going to flip out when Gettleman stands pat at 4 but the reality is that a 3rd round pick is not going to turn around this franchise, but missing the bpa at 4 might really hurt us in the long run.

People's expectations are so far out out whack and you see a lot of talk about netting 2 firsts. There isn't a chance in hell that Gettleman can make people expecting this massive trade-down happy. Unfortunately the more we lose the more casual fans start debating things they have no clue about.
This is a lot of analysis  
AdamBrag : 2/7/2020 9:31 am : link
when it all boils down to the demand for Herbert, assuming Tua goes #3.

The 3 potential teams I could see interested in Herbert are: Chargers, Panthers, and Raiders.

I think for the chargers or Panthers, the return would be a 2nd round pick.

For the Raiders, I think it'd be something like 12+19+a 2021 3rd rounder.

Trading to the Chargers, if there's an offer, seems like a no brainer (even for a 3rd round pick), because we are extremely likely to get the same player at 6 as at 4 (since Herbet would go 4 and Okudah would likely go 5).

Trading to the Panthers, if there's an offer, seems pretty easy too. The Chargers are unlikely to go Simmons and, even if they go OT, there's going to be some high quality ones on the board.

The trade with the Raiders would be a closer call because there's a chance the top 4 tackles and Simmons will be off the board by 12.
RE: This is a lot of analysis  
Leg of Theismann : 2/7/2020 12:18 pm : link
In comment 14805795 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
when it all boils down to the demand for Herbert, assuming Tua goes #3.

The 3 potential teams I could see interested in Herbert are: Chargers, Panthers, and Raiders.

I think for the chargers or Panthers, the return would be a 2nd round pick.

For the Raiders, I think it'd be something like 12+19+a 2021 3rd rounder.

Trading to the Chargers, if there's an offer, seems like a no brainer (even for a 3rd round pick), because we are extremely likely to get the same player at 6 as at 4 (since Herbet would go 4 and Okudah would likely go 5).

Trading to the Panthers, if there's an offer, seems pretty easy too. The Chargers are unlikely to go Simmons and, even if they go OT, there's going to be some high quality ones on the board.

The trade with the Raiders would be a closer call because there's a chance the top 4 tackles and Simmons will be off the board by 12.


Trading from #4 back to #6 with the Panthers I think would net a 2nd round pick. Especially with it being clear that Herbert is the target and Carolina would have to take into account the fact that other teams could be bidding for that spot. Based on recent history, I just don't see moving back multiple spots at the top of the draft only netting a 3rd round pick, especially when a blue chip QB is the clear target.
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