Prior to draft day, I wanted to see what I thought was fair value
before any trade transpired. In fairness to the front office, this is the intellectually honest approach, as opposed to Monday Morning Quarterbacking. I came away disappointed with our haul from the traditional trade value charts. Even after stretching the scenario analysis below through some game theory, it still looks unlikely that we get the massive haul that I think the broader group was expecting. I for one have drastically lowered my expectations, with the upside of being pleasently surprised.
If we look at the
all the 2019 Trades, the
Jimmy Johnson trade chart is for the most part within +/- 10%. Still some say with the new CBA, 5th year options etc, that chart needs updating, for example the
Rich Hill value chart. I believe the latter works better on later picks.
Unfortunately, both charts really deflated my initial perception of the 4th pick value...
For example, for MIA to move up one spot, a high 3rd would be considered great value for NYG. That's really not terribly exciting. The problem is the value drop right at the 4th pick... By JJ's chart:
--every pick from 1-4 is 400 pts lower
--whereas from 4-8 every pick is only 100 points lower.
So in order for this to be a better outcome, we have to hope that the competition for QB changes the traditional game theory model - specifically to more of a 'metagame' or 'confrontational' approach. Those game theory models and acceptance of their qualitative factors, could yield results considered irrational according to traditional game theory mathematical models (trade chart), yet still work for both parties.
Defining Giants success as two scenarios
1) We land Chase Young at 4
2) We earn more than 20% JJ value in a trade down.
Key Assumptions
1) Chase Young is the best player in the draft
2) CIN takes Burrow (if CIN trade outs -& gt; no value to moving to 4)
3) WAS will not trade with NYG
4) CAR/LAC want to trade up for QB
5) Brady stays in NE (so LAC needs to draft)
6) DET may take a QB
7) Tepper will not be boxed by JJ's 30yr old trade chart
These last two assumptions are key. Based on what Tepper paid Rhule, he is a guy that takes his own counsel. Admittedly, coaching salaries are not a fixed resource like the cap or draft picks... but it does show a willingness to be unconventional - which is the necessary but not sufficient component of the metagame.
Scenarios
Here is a matrix showing what each team would have to trade to move up fair value [and NYG value received to win the game].
1) DET does not want a QB
-MIA controls the game with all their picks
-MIA offers 5,18, and a 2nd in 2021 for 2 and 105
-MIA offers 5,26, and a 2nd in 2021 for 3 and 67
-While MIA is negotiating for #2
-CAR knows it's hard to compete for #2
-CAR moves hard FIRST for #3 (w/bonus WAS doesn't trade out)
-CAR offers 7/38, '21 1st for #3
Here is where the large haul scenarios become possible.
--MIA pulls of trade for #2 -& gt; leaving Young to NYG
--WAS does not trade, takes Young
-& gt;MIA and LAC now have to pay up in the form of a 2nd rounder to move up 1/2 spots ( ~20% premiums) possibly another first which would be a huge haul
2) DET wants a QB / WAS trades out
--Teams pay up for WAS pick
--NYG get Young (possible NYG moves up for small value)
3) DET wants a QB / WAS takes Young
--Three teams (CAR/JAX/MIA) compete (bid up) for 1 spot
4) Neither DET or WAS trade out, the biggest possible haul.
Conclusions
1) Most likely Trade down scenario is at best netting a 2nd rounder
2) Most likely path to NYG game win is Chase Young
--Two QB teams move ahead of NYG
--One team moves ahead, DET takes a QB
3) Achieving more than a 2nd rounder, will be difficult but possible
4) Tepper is key
Maybe Giants can get two firsts from Raiders or Jags.
Maybe Giants can get two firsts from Raiders or Jags.
You're probably right, but you never know what can happen when you have 2 or more teams motivated to move up. I do agree with VIG that getting similar value to the JJ chart is a mistake. Even assuming those values are still valid, teams should pay a premium to move up, especially for a QB.
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of picks coming. The trade charts say otherwise, and despite the "screw the chart" folks, it is based on reality.
Maybe Giants can get two firsts from Raiders or Jags.
You're probably right, but you never know what can happen when you have 2 or more teams motivated to move up. I do agree with VIG that getting similar value to the JJ chart is a mistake. Even assuming those values are still valid, teams should pay a premium to move up, especially for a QB.
Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.
I think that is a reasonable way to assess what the Giants should expect.
It also should be noted again, that it would seem that for the top 3 QBs only, which seems to be the top tier as we sit here on February 6th, there does seem to be more buyers or QB needy teams than there are than that top tier of QBs, which again, seems to be 3.
Obviously buyers pay more in a seller's market. However, several things can take shape that would dramatically shift the market. First is free agency and any pre-draft trades involving quarterbacks. Nobody is really talking about it now, but the Bengals conceivably trade or release Andy Dalton. Obviously, where does Carr, Brady, and Rivers land? How do guys like Fromm, Love, and Eason do in this pre-draft evaluation stage? Some buyers may be content to take one of these players and keep their draft capital than move up for Herbert if they have a positive evaluation on more than just the assumed top 3 QBs. So the market today for the QB position will be different than on draft day.
Obviously there's a long way to go before things shake out for sure - but I don't think there's much of a drop off in talent between say pick #5-#10 (and beyond).
Maybe a OT separates from the pack during the time up to the draft.
OR maybe Okudah or Simmons answers some questions about their game...
BUT as it stands right now - I don't see it.
That's why I've been so in favor of trading down.
1) Tua and Herbert will be coveted, and when a team feels they can get a franchise QB that they can depend on the next 10-15 years and they feel can deliver them a Championship, the lucky team sitting in the spot that team needs to target to move up and grab said QB can get a franchise-changing amount of value.
2) I don't believe there is any obvious pick at #4. If Young is available, I'd take him. I would consider taking a Okudah at #4 if he's there, but if he's not there I think trading down is 100% a no-brainer. The value from #4 thru #10 in this specific draft feels very even to me.
3) Dolphins, Panthers, Chargers all need a QB, and you can argue the Jags at #9 do as well. Both the Dolphins and Jags have multiple 1st round picks to work with this year.
The math does seem to be adding up to a trade-down being very realistic.
Tua has been discussed as a lock for #1 overall pick before his injury.
And Burrow IS the lock for #1 overall pick.
You have 3 QBs in this draft who have all been mentioned legitimately in the same sentence as "1st overall pick" at some point. We're already talking about all 3 of them going top 5 in the draft and it's early February! In my experience, QBs' draft stocks only rise as we get closer to Draft Day. Right? And QBs are always over-valued in the draft simply because a franchise guy is so hard to find. As things stand I think there is a very real possibility of all 3 guys going in the top 4, which would mean the Giants either a) get Chase Young or b) get what is likely a decent haul in a trade-down.
Those two trades are at about 25% premium over the chart.
Last season the Giants took Jones at 6 and no one wanted to trade up to get him despite teams needing QBs and Jones did well at the senior bowl just like Herbert. Carson Wentz was a top pick but the MVP that year Dak Prescott was a 4th rounder. I think teams are going to wait to see if Herbert drops to them rather than trade up. I didnt see anything from Herbert at the Senior Bowl to say he would be a great one, lots of short throws.
Obviously there's a long way to go before things shake out for sure - but I don't think there's much of a drop off in talent between say pick #5-#10 (and beyond).
Maybe a OT separates from the pack during the time up to the draft.
OR maybe Okudah or Simmons answers some questions about their game...
BUT as it stands right now - I don't see it.
Agreed.
When the Jets swung a deal to acquire the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft to select Sam Darnold, they traded away the No. 6 pick and three 2nd rounders. A massive overpay based on the trade chart analysis. By the charts this years 2nd rounder would have been fair compensation.
The same was true in the Redskins trade up to acquire the No. 2 overall pick in 2012 to select Bob, they traded away their 2012 No. 6 pick with their 2nd round pick as well as 1st rounders in 2013 and 2014. Again a massive overpay by trade value charts.
History proves that where Top 5 picks and highly coveted QB's are in play the trade value charts are poor guidelines.
Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.
20% is a fine return.
TB crushed it
others are with in 5% or lower of the trade chart...
You should be able to pick up their 3, possibly 2 instead.
And for this, you pick the same guy at 5, you would have picked at 4.
Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.
and even that is an outlier... see above
see above, some outliers, but not such a monumental deviation from value chart...
When the Jets swung a deal to acquire the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft to select Sam Darnold, they traded away the No. 6 pick and three 2nd rounders. A massive overpay based on the trade chart analysis. By the charts this years 2nd rounder would have been fair compensation.
The same was true in the Redskins trade up to acquire the No. 2 overall pick in 2012 to select Bob, they traded away their 2012 No. 6 pick with their 2nd round pick as well as 1st rounders in 2013 and 2014. Again a massive overpay by trade value charts.
History proves that where Top 5 picks and highly coveted QB's are in play the trade value charts are poor guidelines.
Skins was only a low teen kinda premium...
You should be able to pick up their 3, possibly 2 instead.
And for this, you pick the same guy at 5, you would have picked at 4.
all that's fine - my point was my expectations were much higher before i looked at the chart...
it could just be me, but before I ran the numbers my notion was a first from MIA was in the mix to move up 1 and protect from CAR/LAC. I think that's slim, and a 2nd is the more likely what we can expect.
It seems to me, at least right now, that Burrow, Tua, and Herbert have more hype than the 2018 quarterbacks. As someone pointed out, all 3 have been associated with #1 overall at some point or another.
Obviously Burrow will go #1 to the Bengals (barring him saying he refuses to play for them) and Chase Young will go #2 to Washington. So it boils down to whether teams want a "#1 overall" level QB at 3-4 as to what kind of haul the Giants might get. If Detroit goes with Okudah at #3, it increases the odds that the Giants get a haul at #4.
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Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.
and even that is an outlier... see above
Are you discounting future picks by one round per year in the future?
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In comment 14805157 uther99 said:
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Teams will pay a premium to get a QB, but even that has limits. In 2018 the Jets gave up about 2700 points to get 2200 points in value. That's about a 20-25% premium, which the OP notes could occur.
and even that is an outlier... see above
Are you discounting future picks by one round per year in the future?
Yes - since it's unknown what that pick would be I take the average of the 10 picks from that spot.
Same goes for the Jets deal. Cost should have been in the 600 point range. By chart the Jets 2nd(520pts.) should have been nearly equal value. They then included 2 more 2nd rounders at mid round total value of(860pts.). Again for a massive total overpay of 780 points or 130%.
Same goes for the Jets deal. Cost should have been in the 600 point range. By chart the Jets 2nd(520pts.) should have been nearly equal value. They then included 2 more 2nd rounders at mid round total value of(860pts.). Again for a massive total overpay of 780 points or 130%.
I was under impression that future picks are discounted by one round, one of the Jets 2nd rounders was a 2019 pick, so it was really worth a 3rd.
really? of course it's devalued.
1) you don't know what pick it will be
2) it's a year later or in the case of WAS, two years later
By your logic, I'll take your 2020 first rounder for my 2022 first rounder. Let's do this.
Here are a couple sources suggesting this practice
Rich Hill
https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill
over the cap
https://overthecap.com/tag/draft-pick-values/
People's expectations are so far out out whack and you see a lot of talk about netting 2 firsts. There isn't a chance in hell that Gettleman can make people expecting this massive trade-down happy. Unfortunately the more we lose the more casual fans start debating things they have no clue about.
The 3 potential teams I could see interested in Herbert are: Chargers, Panthers, and Raiders.
I think for the chargers or Panthers, the return would be a 2nd round pick.
For the Raiders, I think it'd be something like 12+19+a 2021 3rd rounder.
Trading to the Chargers, if there's an offer, seems like a no brainer (even for a 3rd round pick), because we are extremely likely to get the same player at 6 as at 4 (since Herbet would go 4 and Okudah would likely go 5).
Trading to the Panthers, if there's an offer, seems pretty easy too. The Chargers are unlikely to go Simmons and, even if they go OT, there's going to be some high quality ones on the board.
The trade with the Raiders would be a closer call because there's a chance the top 4 tackles and Simmons will be off the board by 12.
The 3 potential teams I could see interested in Herbert are: Chargers, Panthers, and Raiders.
I think for the chargers or Panthers, the return would be a 2nd round pick.
For the Raiders, I think it'd be something like 12+19+a 2021 3rd rounder.
Trading to the Chargers, if there's an offer, seems like a no brainer (even for a 3rd round pick), because we are extremely likely to get the same player at 6 as at 4 (since Herbet would go 4 and Okudah would likely go 5).
Trading to the Panthers, if there's an offer, seems pretty easy too. The Chargers are unlikely to go Simmons and, even if they go OT, there's going to be some high quality ones on the board.
The trade with the Raiders would be a closer call because there's a chance the top 4 tackles and Simmons will be off the board by 12.
Trading from #4 back to #6 with the Panthers I think would net a 2nd round pick. Especially with it being clear that Herbert is the target and Carolina would have to take into account the fact that other teams could be bidding for that spot. Based on recent history, I just don't see moving back multiple spots at the top of the draft only netting a 3rd round pick, especially when a blue chip QB is the clear target.