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Alternative Scenario to the 2019 Draft

Anakim : 2/9/2020 12:06 pm
Shurmur said the following:

“At that time last year, the best decision—what we felt was best for the Giants—was Daniel Jones. I will say this: we had a very, very high opinion of Drew Lock. We liked him a great deal. There are a lot of similarities between the two players,” Shurmur explained. “They can throw the ball well. They can move around well. You saw flashes of really good football from both of them this year as they played as rookies, so I’m very, very excited to be able to work with Drew Lock and really all the offensive players.”



Could be lip service of course, but let's say it was true for argument's sake. How would you feel about the future of the team if the following happened:

6) ER Josh Allen (Kentucky)

17) Dexter Lawrence

Second rounder) Drew Lock



And kept the 132nd and 142nd picks. We all love DJ and we think he has a bright future, but would we have better been better off if we did the above instead of taking DJ at 6 and trading up for Deandre Baker?
Hindsight  
Dave on the UWS : 2/9/2020 12:12 pm : link
DG was dead set on Jones so this wouldn’t have happened
Everyone knew or at least thought the Giants wanted a QB.  
BlueLou'sBack : 2/9/2020 12:20 pm : link
So if they had taken Allen at 6 and D. Lawrence at 17, anyone remaining interested in Lock would have to think long and hard about taking him before our second round pick came around.

IE, when you change even just one pick early in the draft (or for that matter at any point), you can possibly affect every single subsequent pick.

It doesn't work as you are trying to lay it out. Certainly not necessarily so.
Interesting question. But I hate these questions. In three years we  
Blue21 : 2/9/2020 12:21 pm : link
may know. Problem is DG may not have guessed Lock would last that long. If he had who knows. If he didn't take Jones when he did and he was gone at 17 DG might have taken Lock then. But I haven't watched enough of Lock to really know at this point even though I hear nothing but good things about him. As much as I like Jones if I knew Lock would be there in the second I'd be wondering why did Lock fall? What's wrong with him? Or maybe I say boy are we lucky. Grab him at 2 and look at the picks we got.
Given what we now know, if they had taken Allen at 6  
BlueLou'sBack : 2/9/2020 12:23 pm : link
they would have taken Jones at 17. Or if Jones was gone, they likely would have taken Lock at 17...

It's very highly unlikely to have worked out as you proposed above.
There  
AcidTest : 2/9/2020 12:31 pm : link
are three problems with this scenario:

(1) Nobody thought Lock would be available in the second round. He might not have been available at #17. I was surprised that someone didn't trade back up into the first round to get Lock like Ozzie Newsome did to get Lamar Jackson, since by doing so they would get the fifth year option on him.
(2) Countless teams that needed a QB passed on him.
(3) Denver passed on him three times, first at #10, then at #20 (Fant), and then at #41 (Risner).

I think the concerns about Lock were whether the spread offense he came from would inhibit his ability to dissect NFL defenses. Jones was clearly more highly coveted.

He missed a lot of time his rookie season, but played well at the end.
RE: Hindsight  
ron mexico : 2/9/2020 12:33 pm : link
In comment 14807232 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
DG was dead set on Jones so this wouldn’t have happened


Shurmur pushed for Jones. Then DG did his homework. Saying he was dead set on Jones is a mischaracterization.
Lock  
AcidTest : 2/9/2020 12:41 pm : link
was likely #2, somebody DG likely would have traded up for from #17 if Jones was gone by #6.
It wouldve been awesome  
Prude : 2/9/2020 12:52 pm : link
To go 0-16 with Lock at the helm. Think about all the fun arguments to be had if we had the #1 pick.
Shurmur was the one that turned Gettleman on to Jones  
jlukes : 2/9/2020 12:58 pm : link
Jones was always their #1

But yes, they liked Lock more than Haskins
If they liked Lock as much as Jones..  
Sean : 2/9/2020 1:01 pm : link
They would have taken him at 6 most likely.
Lip Service  
ZogZerg : 2/9/2020 1:02 pm : link
and you can't play the what-if Bullshit game. You have no idea where lock was going, you can't say the Giants could have gotten him in the second round. If they really liked him they would have grabbed him at 17.

They obviously liked Jones much better (just like the Broncos did), which is why they pulled the trigger at 6.
And if you keep following this logic  
jeffusedtobeonwebtv : 2/9/2020 1:08 pm : link
Way back when George Young was GM and Perkins was the coach, they could have taken OJ Anderson instead of Simms in the first round and then later in the second or even third round take Joe Montana.
If we had taken  
Big Blue '56 : 2/9/2020 1:10 pm : link
Darnold..................
Let's wait and see Lock go a full season,  
barens : 2/9/2020 1:14 pm : link
either way, CB is up there as a position that takes a long time to develop. I don't know too many cb's who come into the NFL and look great.
Prognostications  
Archer : 2/9/2020 1:32 pm : link
If you are making different picks for the Giants then you would have to do that for all players

There us no way to know what the impact of selecting Allen would have been

There is no way to speculate selections beyond the second pick
It is possible that Lock would not have been available when the Giants picked in the second round

Then you would be in the position of not having your future QB
The Issue  
WillVAB : 2/9/2020 1:47 pm : link
Was trading up for Baker. That should’ve been an OT or kept the picks and snagged an OT w the 2nd rounder.
RE: The Issue  
BlueLou'sBack : 2/9/2020 1:58 pm : link
In comment 14807289 WillVAB said:
Quote:
Was trading up for Baker. That should’ve been an OT or kept the picks and snagged an OT w the 2nd rounder.


Trading up for Baker was only "bad" in retrospect. At the time of the deal and his selection, he was considered a steal by some draft analysts. Particularly by Cythia Frelund, NFL Netwoks Analytics' guru, who viewed Baker where he was taken as one of the two best "probabilities" values of the entire draft.

Initially her analytics work on Baker's collegiate production led her to mock him second overall to the 49ers, where Joey Bosa was selected!

Hindsight is of course better, but a false premise.
Jones >> Lock  
stoneman : 2/9/2020 2:08 pm : link
much more accurate from the pocket - just sayin
RE: RE: The Issue  
WillVAB : 2/9/2020 2:10 pm : link
In comment 14807293 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14807289 WillVAB said:


Quote:


Was trading up for Baker. That should’ve been an OT or kept the picks and snagged an OT w the 2nd rounder.



Trading up for Baker was only "bad" in retrospect. At the time of the deal and his selection, he was considered a steal by some draft analysts. Particularly by Cythia Frelund, NFL Netwoks Analytics' guru, who viewed Baker where he was taken as one of the two best "probabilities" values of the entire draft.

Initially her analytics work on Baker's collegiate production led her to mock him second overall to the 49ers, where Joey Bosa was selected!

Hindsight is of course better, but a false premise.


I didn’t like the pick when it was made so not hindsight on my part.

Plenty of others here loved it, so not surprised there’s a similar push for Okudah.

The Giants went into the draft with a gaping hole at RT and did nothing in the draft to address it. Cody Ford, who many mocked to the Giants at 17, would’ve been available at the Baker pick or in 2nd if they didn’t trade up at all.
Josh Allen at 6  
LBH15 : 2/9/2020 2:31 pm : link
Daniel Jones at 17
Cody Ford in Rd 2
Could have still pursued Leonard Williams and then maybe draft the DT from Auburn at #4 this year or the CB from Ohio St.

Now that would have been a nice set of circumstances from a GM.
This kind of out of context speculation is largely crap  
Bob in Newburgh : 2/9/2020 2:59 pm : link
Assumes D'Andre Baker was a bad pick because he did not thrive under Bettcher. Real smart. Trade up to pick a CB who thrived in tight press coverage, and play him in off coverage. Did anyone real thrive under JB? Might have done less with more than any DC in the history of the NFL.

Markus Golden equaled or exceeded Josh Allen's sacks, so what would have been gained by drafting him.
RE: RE: RE: The Issue  
BlueLou'sBack : 2/9/2020 3:09 pm : link
In comment 14807300 WillVAB said:
Quote:
In comment 14807293 BlueLou'sBack said:


Quote:


In comment 14807289 WillVAB said:


Quote:


Was trading up for Baker. That should’ve been an OT or kept the picks and snagged an OT w the 2nd rounder.



Trading up for Baker was only "bad" in retrospect. At the time of the deal and his selection, he was considered a steal by some draft analysts. Particularly by Cythia Frelund, NFL Netwoks Analytics' guru, who viewed Baker where he was taken as one of the two best "probabilities" values of the entire draft.

Initially her analytics work on Baker's collegiate production led her to mock him second overall to the 49ers, where Joey Bosa was selected!

Hindsight is of course better, but a false premise.



I didn’t like the pick when it was made so not hindsight on my part.

Plenty of others here loved it, so not surprised there’s a similar push for Okudah.

The Giants went into the draft with a gaping hole at RT and did nothing in the draft to address it. Cody Ford, who many mocked to the Giants at 17, would’ve been available at the Baker pick or in 2nd if they didn’t trade up at all.


Fair enough if you didn't like Baker there but Cody Ford had a pretty rough starting rookie year so far as I know. I don't follow the Bills, so I'm just gonna throw some PFF grades out there:
Cody Ford (PFF 52.4) < Will Hernandez (58.6, a drop-off of almost 10 points from 2018) < Mike Remmers (64.3) < Solder (64.7) < Zeitler (76.4)

So unless Ford played center perhaps, the Giants OL would have been even worse with him playing...

Yes Baker was even worse by PFF grade (48.4) but, OTOH with Beal's oft injured status who else was gonna start at CB????

I know PFF grades are hardly gospel, but that's what we got. Baker improved over the year, and one sees traits in him that he can play.

I'd give him at least another year before declaring him a bad pick, no?

And a fair amount of the Giants' OL looking bad was DJ's holding the ball too long and insensitivity towards the pass rush. His lack of decision making and internal clock - which is normal for a rookie QB.
RE: RE: RE: RE: The Issue  
WillVAB : 2/9/2020 3:48 pm : link
In comment 14807327 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14807300 WillVAB said:


Quote:


In comment 14807293 BlueLou'sBack said:


Quote:


In comment 14807289 WillVAB said:


Quote:


Was trading up for Baker. That should’ve been an OT or kept the picks and snagged an OT w the 2nd rounder.



Trading up for Baker was only "bad" in retrospect. At the time of the deal and his selection, he was considered a steal by some draft analysts. Particularly by Cythia Frelund, NFL Netwoks Analytics' guru, who viewed Baker where he was taken as one of the two best "probabilities" values of the entire draft.

Initially her analytics work on Baker's collegiate production led her to mock him second overall to the 49ers, where Joey Bosa was selected!

Hindsight is of course better, but a false premise.



I didn’t like the pick when it was made so not hindsight on my part.

Plenty of others here loved it, so not surprised there’s a similar push for Okudah.

The Giants went into the draft with a gaping hole at RT and did nothing in the draft to address it. Cody Ford, who many mocked to the Giants at 17, would’ve been available at the Baker pick or in 2nd if they didn’t trade up at all.



Fair enough if you didn't like Baker there but Cody Ford had a pretty rough starting rookie year so far as I know. I don't follow the Bills, so I'm just gonna throw some PFF grades out there:
Cody Ford (PFF 52.4) < Will Hernandez (58.6, a drop-off of almost 10 points from 2018) < Mike Remmers (64.3) < Solder (64.7) < Zeitler (76.4)

So unless Ford played center perhaps, the Giants OL would have been even worse with him playing...

Yes Baker was even worse by PFF grade (48.4) but, OTOH with Beal's oft injured status who else was gonna start at CB????

I know PFF grades are hardly gospel, but that's what we got. Baker improved over the year, and one sees traits in him that he can play.

I'd give him at least another year before declaring him a bad pick, no?

And a fair amount of the Giants' OL looking bad was DJ's holding the ball too long and insensitivity towards the pass rush. His lack of decision making and internal clock - which is normal for a rookie QB.


I think Baker will be a good player in a system more conducive to his skill set. Scrutinizing the pick isn’t about Baker’s ability, it’s about Gettleman not prioritizing OL in the draft when Value met need.

Ford is a good player. He handled Watt fine in the playoffs and looked solid all around in the games I saw.

Greg Little would’ve also been available without a trade up and Jawaan Taylor would’ve been available after a trade up. All 3 would’ve been upgrades at the RT position this year over the corpse of Remmers.

My larger concern is that the Giants scouts may simply be terrible at evaluating OL. The picks under Reese were terrible and so far under Gettleman it doesn’t seem they’re stacking their board correctly to accurately value the OL available.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: The Issue  
BlueLou'sBack : 2/9/2020 11:24 pm : link
In comment 14807343 WillVAB said:
Quote:
In comment 14807327 BlueLou'sBack said:


Quote:


In comment 14807300 WillVAB said:


Quote:


In comment 14807293 BlueLou'sBack said:


Quote:


In comment 14807289 WillVAB said:


Quote:
Ford is a good player. He handled Watt fine in the playoffs and looked solid all around in the games I saw.

Greg Little would’ve also been available without a trade up and Jawaan Taylor would’ve been available after a trade up. All 3 would’ve been upgrades at the RT position this year over the corpse of Remmers.

My larger concern is that the Giants scouts may simply be terrible at evaluating OL. The picks under Reese were terrible and so far under Gettleman it doesn’t seem they’re stacking their board correctly to accurately value the OL available.


I agree one has to question the Giants' ability to scout OL. But it's hard to say how bad their scouting (of OL) is when from 2005 - 2013 they allocated so few even moderately high draft picks to the OL. By the time they selected Pugh and Richburg and Flowers, they were picking OL out of desperation instead of "filling the pipeline." Hernandez to my eyes is a very fine OG, with lots of potential to improve. He's got it all, and he's a nasty finisher to boot.

Let's see what the do for OL this year. I think at least one of our first two selection will be an OL player...
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