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NFT: Mets sale will have no 5-year transition period

pjcas18 : 2/9/2020 6:47 pm
some good news on an otherwise shitty day.

per bloomberg, per twitter (Joe Demayo)

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RE: RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:14 am : link
In comment 14809621 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14809616 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets



how is that one Met and then three are listed?

Mets pay a premium on prospsect rankings too? 3 for 1?


Top 100 prospects that should read. Top 100 is generally what is considered a "top" prospect.

"The deal will include at least 1 top 100 prospect" is what you usually hear not "1 top 120 prospect" no?
I was just  
pjcas18 : 2/12/2020 11:15 am : link
going by what the words say.
It  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:17 am : link
was a simple copy and paste error. Most people consider "top 100". MLB.com, BA, BP does 101 for some reason but top 100 is the industry standard.
Nate  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:20 am : link
Pearson who the Mets reportedly were prepared to take before opting for David Peterson... #8 prospect in baseball per FG. Ugh
RE: .  
giants#1 : 2/12/2020 11:22 am : link
In comment 14809616 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets


Isn't that 3 Mets?
RE: RE: .  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:26 am : link
In comment 14809637 giants#1 said:
Quote:
In comment 14809616 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets



Isn't that 3 Mets?


Explained above.

"It
DanMetroMan : 11:17 am : link : reply
was a simple copy and paste error. Most people consider "top 100". MLB.com, BA, BP does 101 for some reason but top 100 is the industry standard."
Not going to lose sleep over someone ranking two Mets prospects  
pjcas18 : 2/12/2020 11:27 am : link
103 and 106, but people only care about top 100.

plus the Mets have maybe 5 prospects I think are more interesting than Gimenez or Vientos. I am more interested in Szapucki, Alvarez, Allan, Baty, and Wolf.

Either way, I don't get hung up on prospect rankings and definitely won't sulk over not having more than 1 top 100 especially when two of them are 103 and 106.
26th  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:29 am : link
best system is absolute shit given their lack of much to show for it. That's the point.
Gimenez looks like  
Metnut : 2/12/2020 11:30 am : link
a bust to me. Not exciting at all. Hope I'm wrong.

Much more interested and excited about Alvarez, Allan and Baty. A healthy Szapucki could get back on the radar too but I'll believe that when I see it.
RE: 26th  
Metnut : 2/12/2020 11:31 am : link
In comment 14809653 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
best system is absolute shit given their lack of much to show for it. That's the point.


Why are you surprised? Did you see the trades our GM made?

The good news is that PECOTA has the Mets as slight favorites in the NL east next year. At least we have a good MLB team to watch next year since the farm system looks a bit underwhelming.
I  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:33 am : link
haven't seen Szapucki or Wolf on any reputable top 100 lists or even honorable mentions. MLB.com didn't mention either in their list of players who just missed either. (Allan was)
FG's  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:35 am : link
thinks Gimenez has league average upside but hard to see where that would be with the Mets with McNeil, Cano, Rosario and Mauricio the top prospect in the system. They think Vientos is a 1b.
Mets  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:38 am : link
refused to give an update on Lowrie. What the fuck happened to this guy and why are they still paying him? I truly don't understand why it's so secretive.
Dan  
Drewcon40 : 2/12/2020 11:44 am : link
I love your updates and truly respect your posts but sometimes (without context) I don't know what you are referring to? Lowrie is hurt? Didn't he finish last season healthy?
RE: Dan  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:45 am : link
In comment 14809675 Drewcon40 said:
Quote:
I love your updates and truly respect your posts but sometimes (without context) I don't know what you are referring to? Lowrie is hurt? Didn't he finish last season healthy?


Apparently he was NOT healthy but got AB's anyway.
RE: Mets  
Jim in Fairfax : 2/12/2020 11:46 am : link
In comment 14809664 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
refused to give an update on Lowrie. What the fuck happened to this guy and why are they still paying him? I truly don't understand why it's so secretive.

What option do they have but to pay him? He has a contract and didn’t pull a Cespedes, so what can they do?
hmmmm  
Drewcon40 : 2/12/2020 11:47 am : link
Dan, don't get me wrong...this is my main source of Mets news so I was just curious.
Again  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:48 am : link
he had a few AB's in September yet this is from 2 months ago

" "We've continued to try to diagnose what Jed's issues were that kept them out this season. We'll continue to do that with the plan for him being 100 percent ready to go for spring training."

"It's not going to be a normal offseason considering what he went through last year."

What the hell does that mean? If he was healthy enough to play what does the second quote mean?
RE: RE: Mets  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:51 am : link
In comment 14809680 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
In comment 14809664 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


refused to give an update on Lowrie. What the fuck happened to this guy and why are they still paying him? I truly don't understand why it's so secretive.


What option do they have but to pay him? He has a contract and didn’t pull a Cespedes, so what can they do?


Why the secrecy? When have we heard of an injury with ZERO information that kept a player out this long with no real idea?

This is from.. July

"Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
Jul 12, 2019
Jed Lowrie had a recent setback in his rehab - strained right calf. He had been building up his left side, according to Brodie Van Wagenen."

It's now February and they are still trying to diagnose his issues? Not a normal off-season? From a calf strain in.. July?
Oh  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 11:54 am : link
and this was what they said about the injury that somehow kept him out from the first day of ST until when he strained his calf in June/July

"
Wayne Randazzo
@WayneRandazzo
·
Feb 21, 2019
Brodie Van Wagenen said on
@wcbs880
that Jed Lowrie’s MRI revealed no significant damage, and they’ll bring him along slowly. #Mets"

So no significant damage in Feb... not back by June/July, strained calf... July-August-Sept... allow him to have a few ab's... December.. "continue to try and diagnose his issues"... why wasn't his off-season normal if he played in Sept? Why is this such a mystery for a calf strain in July?
Here is AA  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 12:12 pm : link
with a full timeline and how strange it's been
Link - ( New Window )
RE: 26th  
pjcas18 : 2/12/2020 12:32 pm : link
In comment 14809653 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
best system is absolute shit given their lack of much to show for it. That's the point.


it's pretty rare for a team to have a competitive major league team and a solid farm. Of course I'd like both, but given the choice I'd pick a competitive major league team 100 times out of 100.

problem is despite the talent the Mets major league team was not competitive.

if they were I don't care if the farm is 30th.

RE: RE: 26th  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 12:42 pm : link
In comment 14809730 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14809653 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


best system is absolute shit given their lack of much to show for it. That's the point.



it's pretty rare for a team to have a competitive major league team and a solid farm. Of course I'd like both, but given the choice I'd pick a competitive major league team 100 times out of 100.

problem is despite the talent the Mets major league team was not competitive.

if they were I don't care if the farm is 30th.


PJ that's just not accurate
TB, Atlanta, LAD, Arizona, Twins are all top farm systems in baseball and won 85+ games last year... LAD arguably the best team in baseball on paper


I don't have access to BA's full list but here is Bleacher reports top 6 farms...

Rays, Padres, Braves, Mariners, Dodgers, Twins,


Link - ( New Window )
I guess we have different goals  
pjcas18 : 2/12/2020 12:50 pm : link
for being competitive. The Mets won over 85 games last year and I did not consider them competitive.

None of those teams you mentioned made it out of the division series.

and if the results  
pjcas18 : 2/12/2020 12:52 pm : link
show three or four teams out of 30 are competitive and have highly rated farm systems I'd consider that rare.

if you don't then we also differ on the definition of rare.
RE: I guess we have different goals  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 12:55 pm : link
In comment 14809752 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
for being competitive. The Mets won over 85 games last year and I did not consider them competitive.

None of those teams you mentioned made it out of the division series.


PJ c'mon. The Dodgers won 106 games, the Twins 101, Braves 97, Rays 96. Those are top MLB teams in the sport and will likely be again.. with their top ranking farm systems in tow.

PECOTA has LAD as the best team in baseball with 103 wins, Twins 93, Rays 87. You can really say with a straight face these teams aren't "competitive" or top teams in the game? I find that very hard to believe.
RE: RE: I guess we have different goals  
pjcas18 : 2/12/2020 12:59 pm : link
In comment 14809760 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14809752 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


for being competitive. The Mets won over 85 games last year and I did not consider them competitive.

None of those teams you mentioned made it out of the division series.




PJ c'mon. The Dodgers won 106 games, the Twins 101, Braves 97, Rays 96. Those are top MLB teams in the sport and will likely be again.. with their top ranking farm systems in tow.

PECOTA has LAD as the best team in baseball with 103 wins, Twins 93, Rays 87. You can really say with a straight face these teams aren't "competitive" or top teams in the game? I find that very hard to believe.


I'm saying it doesn't matter to me what rank random expert/site has for the farm system if the major league team is competitive.

I don't think many teams have both competitive major league teams and highly ranked farm systems, but it's ancillary to my point.
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 1:03 pm : link
Tim Healey
@timbhealey
·
4m
Luis Rojas said he got to the facility today at 5:30 a.m. — five hours before the Mets’ workout. He said he had to get a workout in before actually starting his work day.
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
1m
On the first official day of Mets spring workouts, Luis Rojas arrived at the facility at 5:30 a.m. so he could get in a workout before beginning his day. (Perhaps trying to make good on Noah Syndergaard's proclamation that Rojas is the "most jacked manager in the league.")
Dom  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 1:07 pm : link
Smith is early. Will wear #2 if he makes the team.
I mean if we essentially kept BVW from picking up a phone  
bhill410 : 2/12/2020 1:25 pm : link
We would probably be a top 10 team farm wise and our senior team would probably be in similar boat. We have 3/4 top 100 prospects traded by that bonehead.
SNY  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 1:33 pm : link
posted a video of Cespedes lightly working out. Looks like he has a bit of a gut, but he likely always does #LooseUnis
RE: I mean if we essentially kept BVW from picking up a phone  
Eric on Li : 2/12/2020 1:50 pm : link
In comment 14809795 bhill410 said:
Quote:
We would probably be a top 10 team farm wise and our senior team would probably be in similar boat. We have 3/4 top 100 prospects traded by that bonehead.


Exactly. The way I look at it right now we have:

5 very good IF prospects (Mauricio, Gimenez, Vientos, Alvarez, Baty)
1 very good SP prospect (Allen)
3-6 interesting P prospects but who knows (Wolf, Peterson, Smith, Kilome, Szapucki, Santos)
and 0 OF prospects

Kelenic, SWR, and Kay would have given them 3 more very good prospects and an overall very strong top 9.

Kay would have been both our 9th best prospect right now and in the futures game last year, which would speak to an impressive system.

Fingers crossed Stroman wins his first Cy Young edging out Diaz' in a comeback player of the year season, but I'm not holding my breathe.
Incredibly  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 1:53 pm : link
by the rankings the Mets top OF prospect has played a whopping 3 games stateside and he (Freddy Valdez) is ranked #18 in a poor system. Pretty tough to pull off being unable to draft/find OF's. Nimmo was drafted... in 2011, Conforto 2014. Forget "stars", where are the potential 4th OF types? Yeesh.
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/12/2020 1:55 pm : link
Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
Amed Rosario through the years:

K%:
2017: 28.8
2018: 20.1
2019: 18.9

Hard Hit %:
2017: 25.0
2018: 32.1
2019: 39.1

Avg. exit velocity:
2017: 84.3
2018: 87.3
2019: 89.2

xwOBA:
2017: .245
2018: .290
2019: .320
RE: Incredibly  
Eric on Li : 2/12/2020 2:03 pm : link
In comment 14809818 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
by the rankings the Mets top OF prospect has played a whopping 3 games stateside and he (Freddy Valdez) is ranked #18 in a poor system. Pretty tough to pull off being unable to draft/find OF's. Nimmo was drafted... in 2011, Conforto 2014. Forget "stars", where are the potential 4th OF types? Yeesh.


Need to hope all the IF'ers pan out to the point where maybe 1 of them shifts to the OF competently the way McNeil was able to. But yeah, the state of OF'ers in the system makes the Kelenic trade that much more insane.
So only because I am obsessed with this  
bhill410 : 2/13/2020 1:11 pm : link
there are rumors on the Mets Reddit sub that are very very hearsayish that Cohen maybe back negotiating since there seems to be little appetite out there for current asking price.

Also was doing some digging on the Dodgers situation v. mets. SNY apparently has a net profit (not gross) of 150 million according to one of the NY times articles that came out. Dodgers TV deal amounts to 280 million per year over 25 years. Now that timespan I am sure accounts for appreciation of the contract so I would suspect it is probably closer to 180-200 at this point. What is interesting about the Time Warner deal is that it called for the creation of a dodgers network that would be owned by the Dodgers with Time Warner but where Time warner took all of the risk (meaning that 280 average was guaranteed). This is relevant because apparently if you own your TV network, you only have to make FMV approximation of the deal available for revenue sharing due to the fact there is risk and fluctuation with TV stations. At the time other franchises were chirping that they didnt really own the network since they were not taking any risk on. In the dodgers case that risk was significant because most local cable providers did not pick up the station.

All of that is a fancy way of saying the SNY value (of which 65 is owned by Wilpons) is significant. 150 profit x going market rate of 7x for Ebita (in my industry that seems to be going rate) is over a billion dollar valuation.

Forbes  
pjcas18 : 2/13/2020 1:19 pm : link
or one of the sites available by googling it has all the franchises broken out into parts and estimated the value of the Mets franchise (no SNY, no ballpark which I don't even think the Mets own anyway) at under $1B and SNY at a little over $1B.

Which again is why after letting it sink in a little $2.6B from Cohen for just the Mets with no SNY and a 5-year period for the Wipons to loot the store seemed preposterous and leads me to think he was not sincere in his attempt to buy the team.
bhill  
CMicks3110 : 2/13/2020 3:57 pm : link
Can you provide link to reddit
RE: Forbes  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2020 4:00 pm : link
In comment 14810530 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
or one of the sites available by googling it has all the franchises broken out into parts and estimated the value of the Mets franchise (no SNY, no ballpark which I don't even think the Mets own anyway) at under $1B and SNY at a little over $1B.

Which again is why after letting it sink in a little $2.6B from Cohen for just the Mets with no SNY and a 5-year period for the Wipons to loot the store seemed preposterous and leads me to think he was not sincere in his attempt to buy the team.


But then how do the Wilpons look if they sell the Mets (again without SNY) for FAR less than 2.6 billion? Don't they come off looking like utter morons?
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2020 4:13 pm : link
Per @kevinmdraper "more than a dozen" insiders the Wilpons do not want to give up control of @Mets. He also confirms @SNYtv is not part of the negotiations. It is not a given @mets are sold at all. The team was valued at 1.5 billion last year when the Wilpons bought back 12% of the team
RE: Forbes  
DanMetroMan : 2/13/2020 4:15 pm : link
In comment 14810530 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
or one of the sites available by googling it has all the franchises broken out into parts and estimated the value of the Mets franchise (no SNY, no ballpark which I don't even think the Mets own anyway) at under $1B and SNY at a little over $1B.

Which again is why after letting it sink in a little $2.6B from Cohen for just the Mets with no SNY and a 5-year period for the Wipons to loot the store seemed preposterous and leads me to think he was not sincere in his attempt to buy the team.


PJ,
The closest we can come to an actual valuation is the knowledge that the Wilpons paid X for 12% of the team last year (buying back shares) and at the time the value sans SNY was 1.5 billion so your number looks about right.
RE: RE: Forbes  
pjcas18 : 2/13/2020 4:20 pm : link
In comment 14810672 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14810530 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


or one of the sites available by googling it has all the franchises broken out into parts and estimated the value of the Mets franchise (no SNY, no ballpark which I don't even think the Mets own anyway) at under $1B and SNY at a little over $1B.

Which again is why after letting it sink in a little $2.6B from Cohen for just the Mets with no SNY and a 5-year period for the Wipons to loot the store seemed preposterous and leads me to think he was not sincere in his attempt to buy the team.



But then how do the Wilpons look if they sell the Mets (again without SNY) for FAR less than 2.6 billion? Don't they come off looking like utter morons?


they look no worse. They always look bad.

I'm no conspiracy theorist, but I wouldn't be shocked if the whole thing was a charade and Cohen was in on it and it was orchestrated to try and flush a new buyer out of bushes with slightly better terms (no 5 year transition), but otherwise similar shitty terms to the original deal that Cohen was never going to agree with.

nothing about this sounds plausible.

Cmicks I am admittedly a maroon with this stuff  
bhill410 : 2/13/2020 7:51 pm : link
And every time I try and get the link the reddit app opens on my phone. It was from yesterday midday. If you google Mets Reddit go about 15 or so posts down.
Ouch  
pjcas18 : 2/14/2020 9:13 am : link
Quote:
Athlete Logos
@athletelogos
·
43m
Happy Valentines Day #Mets fans. #LGM @nymvalentines


RE: Cmicks I am admittedly a maroon with this stuff  
JayBinQueens : 2/14/2020 9:20 am : link
In comment 14810831 bhill410 said:
Quote:
And every time I try and get the link the reddit app opens on my phone. It was from yesterday midday. If you google Mets Reddit go about 15 or so posts down.

Was it this?
Link - ( New Window )
Yup that was source  
bhill410 : 2/14/2020 10:06 am : link
Admittedly sketchy and also in direct contrast to that post yesterday that manfred killed deal because of insider trading stuff.
I  
DanMetroMan : 2/14/2020 12:35 pm : link
realize this topic is boring to most but on the SNY stuff, apparently revenue has really stalled out with 292, 294 and 295 the past 3 seasons (SNL Kagan projected 460 million in revenue in 2018). Similar stagnation for MSG (I'm not knocking the Mets) but it's something to consider.

- Brodie comes off very poorly here. He was upset with Wheeler saying he wasn't surprised the Mets didn't really pursue him

@NYPost_Mets
Brodie Van Wagenen said he was “surprised” and “disappointed” with Zack Wheeler’s comments yesterday, after the Mets “helped him parlay two good half-seasons over the last five into $118 million.”

Yet... when Wheeler signed with the Phillies

"the value for what we thought the investment (was) didn't line up. The projections that we had for Zack (Wheeler), both short-term and long-term, didn't quite match up to the market he was able to enjoy."


So YOU say you think they overpaid and he's not allowed to say what he said? lol good lord thin skin
NYPOST  
DanMetroMan : 2/14/2020 1:49 pm : link
says A-Rod may kick the tires on a bid if he can find investors... and that Cohen may still be lurking.
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/14/2020 1:51 pm : link
“No chance A-Rod pulls that off, especially with Steve Cohen still out there playing safety on this thing,” said one banker familiar with Cohen and the deal. “This auction will not get close to $3 billion, and it will be lucky to get over $2 billion. Steve knows that, he’s talking to people and he’s waiting for the Wilpons to come back begging for $2.6 billion and no five-year window.”

Cohen declined to comment on the notion that he is still actively monitoring the situation, but one source close to the $13 billion financier made it clear that he would not be involved with the Mets auction and “refuses to be used as a stalking horse” in the process.

Neither Rodriguez nor his representative, Ron Berkowitz, could be reached for comment.

The ARod thing is a nice headline  
Metnut : 2/14/2020 2:02 pm : link
but the fact that they wrote that sources confirm Cohen is still involved is the bigger news IMO. Some of us thought that this might be a negotiation tactic on his part. It'll be interesting to look back a year from now and see how this all shakes out.
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