Old article but (relevant in regard to this tweet) in 2013
@business
valued
@Mets
at 2.1 billion.. with 1.2 billion coming from SNY.. so... if SNY is not included... the value of
@Mets
to a new buyer is highly depreciated
the reality is there are only 600 billionaires in the US and a lot of Â
them are worth less than the 2.6b Cohen offered and/or don't live near the team or have much interest in owning the Mets. All the waxing poetic on Mark Cuban, he's worth like $4b. You think he's spending more than half his net worth on the Mets?
It is a very, very, very, small group of people who can lead a purchase of this value. And an even smaller group who check the box of giving a shit about the Mets.
to see some reps at 1b? Seems like a waste of time with Alonso, Dom, Davis and Cano all on the roster. My guess... they hope to send Cespedes somewhere and save themselves from spending 11 million (his salary jumps to 11 if he's on the OD roster).
Old article but (relevant in regard to this tweet) in 2013
@business
valued
@Mets
at 2.1 billion.. with 1.2 billion coming from SNY.. so... if SNY is not included... the value of
@Mets
to a new buyer is highly depreciated
even if this has increased significantly since 2013 as I expect it has, this is why I felt like $2.6B for the Mets without SNY and with a 5 year transition seemed farcical.
I believe there was never intent for Cohen to buy the team.
and based upon that (which obviously is not always completely accurate), there are 330 US residents whose net worth is 2.6 billion or higher.
So this is an extremely shallow pond. Furthermore, unless SNY is included or the contract renegotiated to be market value, the Mets lose money. So if someone whose net worth is say 5 billion or less comes on we could actually be in a worse spot because they may not be willing to incur losses and the Wilpons may have refused to give up their stake in SNY.
To add, if you are a minority owner, meaning you pony up your minimum 60 million to be a member of the ownership group, you are going to be even less persuaded to buy a team that is going to be losing money and you are going to be on the hook for repeatedly investing 1-2 milllion to cover operating losses.
All of this is consistent with my belief that if they actually want to sell the team they go back to Cohen.
I will be up front is saying I have no idea what the current SNY Â
But if I am a potential buyer and paying top dollar without getting SNY, once I get control of the team (assuming it is right away), can't that person essentially eliminate or not renew the SNY contract? If the Wilpon's want to hold on to that so badly, can't the new owner work out a deal with MSG or essentially start another network to broadcast the Mets games?
I know SNY has the Nets and get some college basketball/football games from time to time, but without the Mets, the network would go bankrupt.
Again, I have no idea, but if keeping SNY is just another revenue stream for Sterling Properties, ultimately, the next buyer can cut that off.
I have said it numerous times, but if a sale was to go through, I want no ties to the Wilpons/Katz/Sterling Properties, etc...
when the deal fell apart it was report the Wilpons wanted to extend the SNY deal for more than the current "20 years" if that means that was the initial contract then the Mets are tied to SNY through 2026 at minimum. If that means 20 more years then obviously we are talking 2040. I have no insight on the SNY contract other than until the contract expires the Mets will air on SNY.
Puts up 55 million of the 57 million cost to build a new facility. But the little league field initially in the plans has to get scrapped from the budget? Not mention the clubhouse can’t be used by the minor leaguers? But hey atleast Brodie and Jeff have lockers!
Really shows you the type of of people the Wilpons are.
That makes sense and if I am a potential buyer and not having SNY a sort of the deal, that has to be considered. After 2026, the TV rights go out to bid.
That makes sense and if I am a potential buyer and not having SNY a sort of the deal, that has to be considered. After 2026, the TV rights go out to bid.
A buyer would probably be willing to wait until 2026 (after subtracting some cash off of the valuation) since they'd get a chance for a new TV deal (SNY is close to worthless without the Mets TV rights).
The problem is if the Wilpons extend the SNY deal (at some below market rate) to like 2040, then why would anyone pay anything close to a full valuation for the team when one of the most valuable assets (the tv rights) wouldn't be included?
potential buyer wants to sever ties with SNY as soon as possible. The Dodgers TV deal was worth nearly...9 billion with Spectrum for context. Cable rights are a HUGE value.
My exact thoughts as well. I remember the Dodger deal the the cable deal was a huge part.
If the Wilpon's are really concerned about that revenue stream that they get from holding on to SNY, I really see that as a hold up from any potential buyers.
I really do think we will be stuck with the Wilpon's in some fashion forever.
It would be great if a new buyer comes in, buys the team and says to Fred, hey, we will definitely look into extending that SNY deal at some point, but let's get this ownership deal done first. Then once the ink is dry, he or she gives a big middle finger to them and says SNY is done after 2026!
RE: I will be up front is saying I have no idea what the current SNY Â
But if I am a potential buyer and paying top dollar without getting SNY, once I get control of the team (assuming it is right away), can't that person essentially eliminate or not renew the SNY contract? If the Wilpon's want to hold on to that so badly, can't the new owner work out a deal with MSG or essentially start another network to broadcast the Mets games?
The Mets (and Sterling) own 65% of SNY, and it is a cash cow. Any Mets buyer is going to want SNY included.
would want SNY to bleed it dry or buy out the Mets contract. Local cable networks aren't worth as much as deals directly with the cable networks, see the Dodgers.
they should just borrow and cash LP's out... something tells me they don't have room to borrow more , or they would - $ is VERY cheap now... if the fans really get together and really pinch their cashflows they could force their hand
And likely driven by market dynamics. For starters that dodger deal has been a disaster as the dodgers were never picked up by most local cable providers, secondly yes, nesn, and sny are immensely profitable. We just don’t have clear visibility into that profit and since they control everything soup to nuts it’s much more difficult to extrapolate overhead and production costs. It is also a good way to hide revenue from profit sharing which is why I have always been curious why it’s allowed.
And likely driven by market dynamics. For starters that dodger deal has been a disaster as the dodgers were never picked up by most local cable providers, secondly yes, nesn, and sny are immensely profitable. We just don’t have clear visibility into that profit and since they control everything soup to nuts it’s much more difficult to extrapolate overhead and production costs. It is also a good way to hide revenue from profit sharing which is why I have always been curious why it’s allowed.
bhill,
t we "heard" Cohen didn't care about taking SNY but did care about the Wilpon's extending the agreement leads me to believe he felt he could "do better" on his own. Mike Ozanian from Forbes sees it the way I do (not that I'm some cable sports guru) (die horn is obviously an autocorrect for Einhorn)
Responding to another poster he said
"
ERD
@e_r_d4
Replying to
@MikeOzanian
Standalone networks (excl. YES) having a really tough go (sub decline, carriage problems, RF increases). Not sure new owner wants to take on an asset of this nature unless it was then sold to one of the current RSN operators or otherwise added to a larger portfolio of networks."
Mike Ozanian
@MikeOzanian
·
22h
Agree. Die horn and Cohen didn’t want SNY plus SNY not growing past 2 years. Figure maybe worth 5 times revenue
@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
how is that one Met and then three are listed?
Mets pay a premium on prospsect rankings too? 3 for 1?
@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
how is that one Met and then three are listed?
Mets pay a premium on prospsect rankings too? 3 for 1?
Top 100 prospects that should read. Top 100 is generally what is considered a "top" prospect.
"The deal will include at least 1 top 100 prospect" is what you usually hear not "1 top 120 prospect" no?
@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
Isn't that 3 Mets?
Explained above.
"It
DanMetroMan : 11:17 am : link : reply
was a simple copy and paste error. Most people consider "top 100". MLB.com, BA, BP does 101 for some reason but top 100 is the industry standard."
Not going to lose sleep over someone ranking two Mets prospects Â
plus the Mets have maybe 5 prospects I think are more interesting than Gimenez or Vientos. I am more interested in Szapucki, Alvarez, Allan, Baty, and Wolf.
Either way, I don't get hung up on prospect rankings and definitely won't sulk over not having more than 1 top 100 especially when two of them are 103 and 106.
a bust to me. Not exciting at all. Hope I'm wrong.
Much more interested and excited about Alvarez, Allan and Baty. A healthy Szapucki could get back on the radar too but I'll believe that when I see it.
best system is absolute shit given their lack of much to show for it. That's the point.
Why are you surprised? Did you see the trades our GM made?
The good news is that PECOTA has the Mets as slight favorites in the NL east next year. At least we have a good MLB team to watch next year since the farm system looks a bit underwhelming.
haven't seen Szapucki or Wolf on any reputable top 100 lists or even honorable mentions. MLB.com didn't mention either in their list of players who just missed either. (Allan was)
thinks Gimenez has league average upside but hard to see where that would be with the Mets with McNeil, Cano, Rosario and Mauricio the top prospect in the system. They think Vientos is a 1b.
refused to give an update on Lowrie. What the fuck happened to this guy and why are they still paying him? I truly don't understand why it's so secretive.
I love your updates and truly respect your posts but sometimes (without context) I don't know what you are referring to? Lowrie is hurt? Didn't he finish last season healthy?
I love your updates and truly respect your posts but sometimes (without context) I don't know what you are referring to? Lowrie is hurt? Didn't he finish last season healthy?
Apparently he was NOT healthy but got AB's anyway.
refused to give an update on Lowrie. What the fuck happened to this guy and why are they still paying him? I truly don't understand why it's so secretive.
What option do they have but to pay him? He has a contract and didn’t pull a Cespedes, so what can they do?
he had a few AB's in September yet this is from 2 months ago
" "We've continued to try to diagnose what Jed's issues were that kept them out this season. We'll continue to do that with the plan for him being 100 percent ready to go for spring training."
"It's not going to be a normal offseason considering what he went through last year."
What the hell does that mean? If he was healthy enough to play what does the second quote mean?
refused to give an update on Lowrie. What the fuck happened to this guy and why are they still paying him? I truly don't understand why it's so secretive.
What option do they have but to pay him? He has a contract and didn’t pull a Cespedes, so what can they do?
Why the secrecy? When have we heard of an injury with ZERO information that kept a player out this long with no real idea?
This is from.. July
"Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
Jul 12, 2019
Jed Lowrie had a recent setback in his rehab - strained right calf. He had been building up his left side, according to Brodie Van Wagenen."
It's now February and they are still trying to diagnose his issues? Not a normal off-season? From a calf strain in.. July?
and this was what they said about the injury that somehow kept him out from the first day of ST until when he strained his calf in June/July
"
Wayne Randazzo
@WayneRandazzo
·
Feb 21, 2019
Brodie Van Wagenen said on
@wcbs880
that Jed Lowrie’s MRI revealed no significant damage, and they’ll bring him along slowly. #Mets"
So no significant damage in Feb... not back by June/July, strained calf... July-August-Sept... allow him to have a few ab's... December.. "continue to try and diagnose his issues"... why wasn't his off-season normal if he played in Sept? Why is this such a mystery for a calf strain in July?
best system is absolute shit given their lack of much to show for it. That's the point.
it's pretty rare for a team to have a competitive major league team and a solid farm. Of course I'd like both, but given the choice I'd pick a competitive major league team 100 times out of 100.
problem is despite the talent the Mets major league team was not competitive.
best system is absolute shit given their lack of much to show for it. That's the point.
it's pretty rare for a team to have a competitive major league team and a solid farm. Of course I'd like both, but given the choice I'd pick a competitive major league team 100 times out of 100.
problem is despite the talent the Mets major league team was not competitive.
if they were I don't care if the farm is 30th.
PJ that's just not accurate
TB, Atlanta, LAD, Arizona, Twins are all top farm systems in baseball and won 85+ games last year... LAD arguably the best team in baseball on paper
I don't have access to BA's full list but here is Bleacher reports top 6 farms...
Whatever they can F up, they F up. It never fails.
@business
valued
@Mets
at 2.1 billion.. with 1.2 billion coming from SNY.. so... if SNY is not included... the value of
@Mets
to a new buyer is highly depreciated
It is a very, very, very, small group of people who can lead a purchase of this value. And an even smaller group who check the box of giving a shit about the Mets.
@business
valued
@Mets
at 2.1 billion.. with 1.2 billion coming from SNY.. so... if SNY is not included... the value of
@Mets
to a new buyer is highly depreciated
even if this has increased significantly since 2013 as I expect it has, this is why I felt like $2.6B for the Mets without SNY and with a 5 year transition seemed farcical.
I believe there was never intent for Cohen to buy the team.
So this is an extremely shallow pond. Furthermore, unless SNY is included or the contract renegotiated to be market value, the Mets lose money. So if someone whose net worth is say 5 billion or less comes on we could actually be in a worse spot because they may not be willing to incur losses and the Wilpons may have refused to give up their stake in SNY.
To add, if you are a minority owner, meaning you pony up your minimum 60 million to be a member of the ownership group, you are going to be even less persuaded to buy a team that is going to be losing money and you are going to be on the hook for repeatedly investing 1-2 milllion to cover operating losses.
All of this is consistent with my belief that if they actually want to sell the team they go back to Cohen.
But if I am a potential buyer and paying top dollar without getting SNY, once I get control of the team (assuming it is right away), can't that person essentially eliminate or not renew the SNY contract? If the Wilpon's want to hold on to that so badly, can't the new owner work out a deal with MSG or essentially start another network to broadcast the Mets games?
I know SNY has the Nets and get some college basketball/football games from time to time, but without the Mets, the network would go bankrupt.
Again, I have no idea, but if keeping SNY is just another revenue stream for Sterling Properties, ultimately, the next buyer can cut that off.
I have said it numerous times, but if a sale was to go through, I want no ties to the Wilpons/Katz/Sterling Properties, etc...
Really shows you the type of of people the Wilpons are.
A buyer would probably be willing to wait until 2026 (after subtracting some cash off of the valuation) since they'd get a chance for a new TV deal (SNY is close to worthless without the Mets TV rights).
The problem is if the Wilpons extend the SNY deal (at some below market rate) to like 2040, then why would anyone pay anything close to a full valuation for the team when one of the most valuable assets (the tv rights) wouldn't be included?
If the Wilpon's are really concerned about that revenue stream that they get from holding on to SNY, I really see that as a hold up from any potential buyers.
It would be great if a new buyer comes in, buys the team and says to Fred, hey, we will definitely look into extending that SNY deal at some point, but let's get this ownership deal done first. Then once the ink is dry, he or she gives a big middle finger to them and says SNY is done after 2026!
But if I am a potential buyer and paying top dollar without getting SNY, once I get control of the team (assuming it is right away), can't that person essentially eliminate or not renew the SNY contract? If the Wilpon's want to hold on to that so badly, can't the new owner work out a deal with MSG or essentially start another network to broadcast the Mets games?
The Mets (and Sterling) own 65% of SNY, and it is a cash cow. Any Mets buyer is going to want SNY included.
bhill,
t we "heard" Cohen didn't care about taking SNY but did care about the Wilpon's extending the agreement leads me to believe he felt he could "do better" on his own. Mike Ozanian from Forbes sees it the way I do (not that I'm some cable sports guru) (die horn is obviously an autocorrect for Einhorn)
Responding to another poster he said
"
ERD
@e_r_d4
Replying to
@MikeOzanian
Standalone networks (excl. YES) having a really tough go (sub decline, carriage problems, RF increases). Not sure new owner wants to take on an asset of this nature unless it was then sold to one of the current RSN operators or otherwise added to a larger portfolio of networks."
Mike Ozanian
@MikeOzanian
·
22h
Agree. Die horn and Cohen didn’t want SNY plus SNY not growing past 2 years. Figure maybe worth 5 times revenue
"I did not ask Carlos about it, I read the article the same time everyone else did"
- BVW
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
how is that one Met and then three are listed?
Mets pay a premium on prospsect rankings too? 3 for 1?
Quote:
@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
how is that one Met and then three are listed?
Mets pay a premium on prospsect rankings too? 3 for 1?
Top 100 prospects that should read. Top 100 is generally what is considered a "top" prospect.
"The deal will include at least 1 top 100 prospect" is what you usually hear not "1 top 120 prospect" no?
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
Isn't that 3 Mets?
Quote:
@fangraphs places only 1 Met in their top 120 prospects in baseball "Mets:
Ronny Mauricio: 35
Andres Gimenez: 103
Mark Vientos: 106".. @BaseballAmerica ranked @mets system 26th, down from 19th #Mets
Isn't that 3 Mets?
Explained above.
"It
DanMetroMan : 11:17 am : link : reply
was a simple copy and paste error. Most people consider "top 100". MLB.com, BA, BP does 101 for some reason but top 100 is the industry standard."
plus the Mets have maybe 5 prospects I think are more interesting than Gimenez or Vientos. I am more interested in Szapucki, Alvarez, Allan, Baty, and Wolf.
Either way, I don't get hung up on prospect rankings and definitely won't sulk over not having more than 1 top 100 especially when two of them are 103 and 106.
Much more interested and excited about Alvarez, Allan and Baty. A healthy Szapucki could get back on the radar too but I'll believe that when I see it.
Why are you surprised? Did you see the trades our GM made?
The good news is that PECOTA has the Mets as slight favorites in the NL east next year. At least we have a good MLB team to watch next year since the farm system looks a bit underwhelming.
Apparently he was NOT healthy but got AB's anyway.
What option do they have but to pay him? He has a contract and didn’t pull a Cespedes, so what can they do?
" "We've continued to try to diagnose what Jed's issues were that kept them out this season. We'll continue to do that with the plan for him being 100 percent ready to go for spring training."
"It's not going to be a normal offseason considering what he went through last year."
What the hell does that mean? If he was healthy enough to play what does the second quote mean?
Quote:
refused to give an update on Lowrie. What the fuck happened to this guy and why are they still paying him? I truly don't understand why it's so secretive.
What option do they have but to pay him? He has a contract and didn’t pull a Cespedes, so what can they do?
Why the secrecy? When have we heard of an injury with ZERO information that kept a player out this long with no real idea?
This is from.. July
"Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
·
Jul 12, 2019
Jed Lowrie had a recent setback in his rehab - strained right calf. He had been building up his left side, according to Brodie Van Wagenen."
It's now February and they are still trying to diagnose his issues? Not a normal off-season? From a calf strain in.. July?
"
Wayne Randazzo
@WayneRandazzo
·
Feb 21, 2019
Brodie Van Wagenen said on
@wcbs880
that Jed Lowrie’s MRI revealed no significant damage, and they’ll bring him along slowly. #Mets"
So no significant damage in Feb... not back by June/July, strained calf... July-August-Sept... allow him to have a few ab's... December.. "continue to try and diagnose his issues"... why wasn't his off-season normal if he played in Sept? Why is this such a mystery for a calf strain in July?
Link - ( New Window )
it's pretty rare for a team to have a competitive major league team and a solid farm. Of course I'd like both, but given the choice I'd pick a competitive major league team 100 times out of 100.
problem is despite the talent the Mets major league team was not competitive.
if they were I don't care if the farm is 30th.
Quote:
best system is absolute shit given their lack of much to show for it. That's the point.
it's pretty rare for a team to have a competitive major league team and a solid farm. Of course I'd like both, but given the choice I'd pick a competitive major league team 100 times out of 100.
problem is despite the talent the Mets major league team was not competitive.
if they were I don't care if the farm is 30th.
PJ that's just not accurate
TB, Atlanta, LAD, Arizona, Twins are all top farm systems in baseball and won 85+ games last year... LAD arguably the best team in baseball on paper
I don't have access to BA's full list but here is Bleacher reports top 6 farms...
Rays, Padres, Braves, Mariners, Dodgers, Twins,
Link - ( New Window )
None of those teams you mentioned made it out of the division series.
if you don't then we also differ on the definition of rare.