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NFT: Coronavirus getting uglier...

bw in dc : 2/10/2020 6:42 pm
From the Washington Post:

Quote:
China reports 1,011 dead, including 103 on Monday, and about 42,000 cases of coronavirus. More than 6,000 of the affected patients were in critical condition, authorities said Monday.


Looks like the death rate is approaching 2.5%. And if more die in the current "6,000...in critical condition" then this is trending more towards 3%. That's a significant larger % than seasonal flu...
Corona - ( New Window )
And that is only what China reports.  
Diver_Down : 2/10/2020 6:47 pm : link
With no independent verification, the scope of the outbreak is likely much worse.
Ya something doesnít seem right with the way china  
bubba0825 : 2/10/2020 6:48 pm : link
Is handling it. They are down playing it. I saw on twitter that large amounts of co2 have been detected on the outskirts of Wuhan suggesting they are burning something
US needs to ban  
XBRONX : 2/10/2020 6:50 pm : link
travel to and from China till they clean up their act. First SARS now this.They seemingly don't take things seriously regarding the cause of outbreaks.
RE: Ya something doesnít seem right with the way china  
Diver_Down : 2/10/2020 6:52 pm : link
In comment 14808446 bubba0825 said:
Quote:
Is handling it. They are down playing it. I saw on twitter that large amounts of co2 have been detected on the outskirts of Wuhan suggesting they are burning something


It should come as no surprise that China is not forthcoming with information.
I suspect that death rate has more to do with China healthcare  
George from PA : 2/10/2020 6:56 pm : link
Than the coronavirus
RE: And that is only what China reports.  
bw in dc : 2/10/2020 6:58 pm : link
In comment 14808445 Diver_Down said:
Quote:
With no independent verification, the scope of the outbreak is likely much worse.


Spot on. Anything they say or report needs to be taken with a boulder sized grain of salt...

When it comes time to report their quarterly growth rate, don't be surprised if they report a healthy 6%+... ;)
The mortality rate  
Producer : 2/10/2020 7:08 pm : link
Of this virus has always hovered around 2.5% since the very beginning. Perhaps if they have not understood the number of infections the rate could be lower, perhaps there are people who show no symptoms, but the morality rate is alarming given a seemingly high infection rate
I wonder what the implications will be...  
EricJ : 2/10/2020 7:11 pm : link
in the business world. Suppose one area of china is locked down due to the virus and manufacturing facilities are also shut down.
I saw that there are rumors of crematoriums  
Mattman : 2/10/2020 7:22 pm : link
Being very busy with large sulfur dioxide emissions detected from burning the bodies. One funeral home was reported to burn over 100 a day with only a few confirmed to have died from the virus but a lot more suspected.
S02 - ( New Window )
This is a very good  
Jolly Blue Giant : 2/10/2020 7:26 pm : link
Article....explains it very well
Link - ( New Window )
supossed to fly to barcelona a week from friday  
DaddyM89 : 2/10/2020 7:28 pm : link
do you think theres a chance by then they could be quarantining all international travel?
Scientists already fear it could go from bad to worse  
Canton : 2/10/2020 7:34 pm : link
If the virus mutates. They are dealing with a virus that’s still relatively unknown to them.
the anecdotal stories surrounding China's response  
Greg from LI : 2/10/2020 7:39 pm : link
are also highly disturbing. Officials in biohazard suits forcibly detaining people, giant machines spraying bleach on the streets (which won't do anything to help anyway), etc.
RE: supossed to fly to barcelona a week from friday  
UConn4523 : 2/10/2020 7:41 pm : link
In comment 14808467 DaddyM89 said:
Quote:
do you think theres a chance by then they could be quarantining all international travel?


Probably not, the effects of that would be catastrophic.
RE: the anecdotal stories surrounding China's response  
bw in dc : 2/10/2020 7:50 pm : link
In comment 14808473 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
are also highly disturbing. Officials in biohazard suits forcibly detaining people, giant machines spraying bleach on the streets (which won't do anything to help anyway), etc.


Yeah, "Quarantine Squads" breaking into people's houses and taking them into "health custody".
Apparently they are running out of  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 2/10/2020 7:50 pm : link
Tests for patients as well.
RE: This is a very good  
ZogZerg : 2/10/2020 7:53 pm : link
In comment 14808465 Jolly Blue Giant said:
Quote:
Article....explains it very well Link - ( New Window )


Great link!
thanks
RE: RE: the anecdotal stories surrounding China's response  
Diver_Down : 2/10/2020 7:58 pm : link
In comment 14808477 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14808473 Greg from LI said:


Quote:


are also highly disturbing. Officials in biohazard suits forcibly detaining people, giant machines spraying bleach on the streets (which won't do anything to help anyway), etc.



Yeah, "Quarantine Squads" breaking into people's houses and taking them into "health custody".


There was a short cell phone clip showing government agents in their biohazard suits removing this one guy from presumably his residence by his arms and legs.
RE: supossed to fly to barcelona a week from friday  
Andrew in Austin : 2/10/2020 8:23 pm : link
In comment 14808467 DaddyM89 said:
Quote:
do you think theres a chance by then they could be quarantining all international travel?


Assuming you are heading to Mobile World Congress? Several major companies have already pulled out (E///, Nvidia, Amazon, LG, ZTE, TCL, & others). My company is still heading for now, but says they will reevaluate on Friday.
big, immediate impacts are  
ColHowPepper : 2/10/2020 8:29 pm : link
oil prices, now teetering below and above $50, down ~$14 in a couple of months; auto parts from China are huge--w/o parts, US and Euro and some Asian automakers will have to reduce production; travel already significantly impacted; you saw earlier today on BBI, something as niche as hockey sticks, one Leafs' player (I think) saying he'll have to make sure to break fewer of them.

Yes, China reporting is suspect; even with test kits, there is a high % of false negatives, which further skews detection, tracking, deaths/recovery numbers. This is still very early in this viral history; it shows fast morphing of genetic structure
I just heard an interview on NPR with an expert  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 2/10/2020 8:30 pm : link
from Johns Hopkins that said China is short on the resources to test suspected cases and so they are only testing the worse cases.

This implies that the actual number of cases are quite understated, I would think
a friend of mine's parents are stuck on that cruise ship  
markky : 2/10/2020 8:37 pm : link
in Japan. i think there will be more of that kind of thing in the near future.
Based on the current rate, geometric progression  
jcn56 : 2/10/2020 8:40 pm : link
would suggest that by the end of the month we're going to be looking at some very large numbers of infected.

I hope that those early reports of an AIDS/flu treatment cocktail working for nCov turn out to be true.
I agree with BW  
Dave on the UWS : 2/10/2020 8:47 pm : link
donít take anything China says at face value. Any numbers they give, double them. And they are for sure short on resources. If itís an airborne virus, the density of their population is a BIG problem.
My office is supporting an international trade  
NoPeanutz : 2/10/2020 8:48 pm : link
delegation (60+ startups) in two weeks in Barcelona for Mobile World Congress. My office is supposed to set B2B meetings for them at the show with potential strategic partners. Normally, the show hosts well over 100k+ people.
Since this past weekend:
-Ericsson
-LG
-Sony
-TCL
-Apple
-Amazon
-Lenovo
-and I'm told maybe Verizon

have all canceled their participation.
I don't trust the Chinese  
Lines of Scrimmage : 2/10/2020 9:00 pm : link
good people here in the states. I respect their China towns and they are very loyal and support their own.
That said, this may very well be more serious then they say.....likely
RE: supossed to fly to barcelona a week from friday  
Bill L : 2/10/2020 9:25 pm : link
In comment 14808467 DaddyM89 said:
Quote:
do you think theres a chance by then they could be quarantining all international travel?

No.
A couple of points  
Bill L : 2/10/2020 9:41 pm : link
There is a lot of speculation that there are a lot more cases than have been reported, particularly because the symptoms for most people are fairly mild. Thereís speculation that the outbreak began slightly earlier than thought originally. Both of those lead to the assumption that the number of cases is being underreported. But nobody thinks that the number of deaths is being underreported. So, that actually makes the mortality rate *lower* (same # deaths/greater # of cases). Also, the thought is that the main reason why there are as many deaths as there are is that the medical care and hospital structure, especially early on, in Wuhan was insufficient. So, perhaps not a realistic perspective on the death number going forward.

In the US, there have been 12 confirmed cases but only 2 person to person transmissions. By presidential order, nobody traveling from China (or maybe itís limited to Hubei province) who is not a US citizen or resident is allowed into the country. US citizens or residents coming from China are all screened and , if symptomatic, quarantined for 14 days.

The main people at risk are those people >60 yrs old and with other health problems.

I listened in on a national CDC conference call today and their bottom line is..at least at present...there is a high potential for a global pandemic but a low risk for the United States. As of this weekend most states, and likely soon all states, will have the ability to test for the virus in patients.
Itís also a moving situation  
Bill L : 2/10/2020 9:43 pm : link
Thereís still much we donít know and things are changing rapidly. But CDC says weíve been planning containment, monitoring ,etc for pandemics for a while and are as prepared as they can be for spreading here.

And something like 15 million flu exposures in the US with 15,000 deaths so far. Just for some perspective.
What we donít know  
Tom in Kzoo : 2/10/2020 9:53 pm : link
Is the denominator. All we know is mortality of those that present and are identified .
How many never present because of a milder Illness??
RE: I wonder what the implications will be...  
V.I.G. : 2/10/2020 10:10 pm : link
In comment 14808460 EricJ said:
Quote:
in the business world. Suppose one area of china is locked down due to the virus and manufacturing facilities are also shut down.

It has been a disaster. Force majeure clauses being exercised everywhere.
My sister lives in Beijing.  
bradshaw44 : 2/10/2020 10:15 pm : link
She was on a hiking trip in Taiwan when the outbreak hit critical mass a couple weeks ago. China banned her hiking group from returning until this passed Saturday. She text me. She canít give me detailed updates because they monitor all her comms. She seems ok and says people are all wearing face masks but other than that she hasnít seen a bunch of sick dying people in Beijing. But her texts are yes/no answers and she could be keeping a lot of info to herself. But the fact they let them back in the country after keeping them out so long makes me think they may have a better handle on it now than before.
The Chinese government could care less  
LauderdaleMatty : 2/10/2020 10:28 pm : link
If a few million die. Never mind a few thousand.
RE: What we donít know  
bw in dc : 2/10/2020 10:43 pm : link
In comment 14808547 Tom in Kzoo said:
Quote:
Is the denominator. All we know is mortality of those that present and are identified .
How many never present because of a milder Illness??


In China, I think the numerator - deaths - is the bigger unknown. I could very easily see them trying to tamp that down...
...  
christian : 2/10/2020 10:46 pm : link
Thankfully no one in our China office has been sick, but everyone is basically on lockdown at home. Terrible circumstances.
RE: The Chinese government could care less  
bw in dc : 2/10/2020 11:07 pm : link
In comment 14808561 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:
If a few million die. Never mind a few thousand.


Unfortunately, I think this is very likely the case. It's about getting this situation under control and over as soon as possible Human life be damned...
Xi & their government  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 2/11/2020 7:29 am : link
has done no favors downplaying it from the start.
Chinese government officials report  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 2/11/2020 7:33 am : link
Thousands are in stable condition.

Death being a stable condition.
RE: The Chinese government could care less  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 2/11/2020 7:40 am : link
In comment 14808561 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:
If a few million die. Never mind a few thousand.

A few million lives are certainly nothing compared to the face saving and good optics of government officials, you can assume that. A reason why they keep having these outbreaks.
No reported cases in North Korea?  
Jalapeno : 2/11/2020 8:40 am : link
Seems like the safest place to be right now.

😉
RE: Xi & their government  
Bill L : 2/11/2020 9:19 am : link
In comment 14808606 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
has done no favors downplaying it from the start.


Just to be fair, the Chinese have been way more open than they were with SARS. The identification and publishing of this coronavirus sequence and early epidemiological reports has put people in much much better position than they otherwise would be. China will never be the west wrt transparency (and who really knows what happened to the doc who first reported this outbreak) but they have been fairly decent and, relative to their history, extraordinarily open.
RE: RE: Xi & their government  
jcn56 : 2/11/2020 9:21 am : link
In comment 14808665 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14808606 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


has done no favors downplaying it from the start.



Just to be fair, the Chinese have been way more open than they were with SARS. The identification and publishing of this coronavirus sequence and early epidemiological reports has put people in much much better position than they otherwise would be. China will never be the west wrt transparency (and who really knows what happened to the doc who first reported this outbreak) but they have been fairly decent and, relative to their history, extraordinarily open.


I wonder how much of that is because of the dependency that China has on the rest of the world now relative to back in the early 2000's. I doubt it's so much a political shift on China's part than it is a mandate from business partners.

In one of the articles I read I believe they stated that the daily travel in and out of China has increased 20x since the SARS outbreak.
Even the CDC is fucking up (in our own country)  
Canton : 2/11/2020 10:09 am : link
Quote:
A patient had been allowed to leave UC San Diego hospital, after a testing mistake showed that person was free of the virus.

According to a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health late Monday, all four patients admitted to its isolation units last week were discharged back to their quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC said coronavirus tests came back negative.

Further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for coronavirus. The confirmed positive patient was returned to the hospital for observation and isolation until cleared by CDC for release

CDC identifies 13th patient with coronavirus in U.S. - ( New Window )
RE: Even the CDC is fucking up (in our own country)  
Bill L : 2/11/2020 10:16 am : link
In comment 14808728 Canton said:
Quote:


Quote:


A patient had been allowed to leave UC San Diego hospital, after a testing mistake showed that person was free of the virus.

According to a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health late Monday, all four patients admitted to its isolation units last week were discharged back to their quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC said coronavirus tests came back negative.

Further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for coronavirus. The confirmed positive patient was returned to the hospital for observation and isolation until cleared by CDC for release

CDC identifies 13th patient with coronavirus in U.S. - ( New Window )
That person did go back into quarantine though, so there was no danger to anybody.
RE: No reported cases in North Korea?  
MOOPS : 2/11/2020 11:42 am : link
In comment 14808642 Jalapeno said:
Quote:
Seems like the safest place to be right now.

😉


They probably have samples of the virus and are weaponizing it as we speak.
Sounds like the new cases being reported are leveling off and/or  
Britt in VA : 2/11/2020 11:46 am : link
decreasing.

That's good news.
Haven't heard about  
kelsto811 : 2/11/2020 11:52 am : link
Those Hong Kong protests lately though...
RE: Haven't heard about  
GMAN4LIFE : 2/11/2020 11:57 am : link
In comment 14808877 kelsto811 said:
Quote:
Those Hong Kong protests lately though...


thats what i am saying. Dont think that this was used as a weapon to shut that shit down. crazy if so but anything is possible in this world now
The Chinese aren't idiots  
jcn56 : 2/11/2020 12:21 pm : link
they have other ways to do 'crowd control' - they don't have to unleash a biological agent that they don't have a vaccine or a treatment for. This is going to cost them billions.
Customs and Border Patrol  
Bleedin Blue : 2/11/2020 1:15 pm : link
Detained a woman from China and confiscated a bag which contained dead baby birds; when questioned she said it was cat food! They re being very vigilant. This was at Dulles airport.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Customs and Border Patrol  
Bill L : 2/11/2020 2:28 pm : link
In comment 14808942 Bleedin Blue said:
Quote:
Detained a woman from China and confiscated a bag which contained dead baby birds; when questioned she said it was cat food! They re being very vigilant. This was at Dulles airport. Link - ( New Window )


I don't think that this is coronavirus-related. I don't think you were *ever* able to bring that sort of thing into the US. It sounds like a smuggling case to me.
It is coronavirus no more - now it's COVID-19.  
jcn56 : 2/11/2020 6:14 pm : link
There has to be something positive to read into the fact that the Chinese are telling people to start getting back to work.
RE: It is coronavirus no more - now it's COVID-19.  
Bill L : 2/11/2020 8:51 pm : link
In comment 14809194 jcn56 said:
Quote:
There has to be something positive to read into the fact that the Chinese are telling people to start getting back to work.

At work weíve been calling it ďWuhanĒ. But thatís a big no no since swine flu cost millions by people unnecessarily whacking perfectly good pigs and MERS was deemed Islamaphobic. WHO now disallows names of species or geography, etc because it could be prejudicial.
All I need to know about the Chinese death count  
bhill410 : 2/11/2020 9:14 pm : link
Is that the first Japanese guy to pass from this was declared Corona by Japanese authorities and pneumonia by Chinese. So who really knows what that death count should actually be at.
Thousands  
Simms : 2/12/2020 10:42 am : link
Die of the flu every year. The media hype over Coronavirus is still important.
RE: RE: It is coronavirus no more - now it's COVID-19.  
Mad Mike : 2/12/2020 5:28 pm : link
In comment 14809257 Bill L said:
Quote:
At work weíve been calling it ďWuhanĒ. But thatís a big no no since swine flu cost millions by people unnecessarily whacking perfectly good pigs and MERS was deemed Islamaphobic. WHO now disallows names of species or geography, etc because it could be prejudicial.

I guess the fine people at Cerveceria Modelo deserve no protection from prejudice? The WHO are such beer snobs.
Modelo is better  
Sneakers O'toole : 2/12/2020 5:39 pm : link
Corona tastes like a virus, that's why it needs limes.
Stay..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 2/12/2020 5:41 pm : link
thirsty my friends....
Watching CNBC special...  
bw in dc : 2/12/2020 7:26 pm : link
on the Coronavirus. Big ramp up in cases today in Hubei Province. Over 14K.

So much for things starting to settle...
Move to North Korea  
WideRight : 2/12/2020 7:38 pm : link

Not a single case in the hermit kingdom......
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