NFT: Coronavirus getting uglier...

With no independent verification, the scope of the outbreak is likely much worse.

Is handling it. They are down playing it. I saw on twitter that large amounts of co2 have been detected on the outskirts of Wuhan suggesting they are burning something

travel to and from China till they clean up their act. First SARS now this.They seemingly don't take things seriously regarding the cause of outbreaks.

In comment 14808446 bubba0825 said:

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Is handling it. They are down playing it. I saw on twitter that large amounts of co2 have been detected on the outskirts of Wuhan suggesting they are burning something

It should come as no surprise that China is not forthcoming with information.

Than the coronavirus

In comment 14808445 Diver_Down said:

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With no independent verification, the scope of the outbreak is likely much worse.

Spot on. Anything they say or report needs to be taken with a boulder sized grain of salt...

When it comes time to report their quarterly growth rate, don't be surprised if they report a healthy 6%+... ;)

Of this virus has always hovered around 2.5% since the very beginning. Perhaps if they have not understood the number of infections the rate could be lower, perhaps there are people who show no symptoms, but the morality rate is alarming given a seemingly high infection rate

in the business world. Suppose one area of china is locked down due to the virus and manufacturing facilities are also shut down.

Being very busy with large sulfur dioxide emissions detected from burning the bodies. One funeral home was reported to burn over 100 a day with only a few confirmed to have died from the virus but a lot more suspected.
S02 - ( New Window )

Article....explains it very well
Link - ( New Window )

do you think theres a chance by then they could be quarantining all international travel?

If the virus mutates. They are dealing with a virus that’s still relatively unknown to them.

are also highly disturbing. Officials in biohazard suits forcibly detaining people, giant machines spraying bleach on the streets (which won't do anything to help anyway), etc.

In comment 14808467 DaddyM89 said:

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do you think theres a chance by then they could be quarantining all international travel?

Probably not, the effects of that would be catastrophic.

In comment 14808473 Greg from LI said:

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are also highly disturbing. Officials in biohazard suits forcibly detaining people, giant machines spraying bleach on the streets (which won't do anything to help anyway), etc.

Yeah, "Quarantine Squads" breaking into people's houses and taking them into "health custody".

Tests for patients as well.

In comment 14808465 Jolly Blue Giant said:

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Article....explains it very well Link - ( New Window )

Great link!
thanks

In comment 14808477 bw in dc said:

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In comment 14808473 Greg from LI said: Quote: are also highly disturbing. Officials in biohazard suits forcibly detaining people, giant machines spraying bleach on the streets (which won't do anything to help anyway), etc. Yeah, "Quarantine Squads" breaking into people's houses and taking them into "health custody".

There was a short cell phone clip showing government agents in their biohazard suits removing this one guy from presumably his residence by his arms and legs.

In comment 14808467 DaddyM89 said:

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do you think theres a chance by then they could be quarantining all international travel?

Assuming you are heading to Mobile World Congress? Several major companies have already pulled out (E///, Nvidia, Amazon, LG, ZTE, TCL, & others). My company is still heading for now, but says they will reevaluate on Friday.

oil prices, now teetering below and above $50, down ~$14 in a couple of months; auto parts from China are huge--w/o parts, US and Euro and some Asian automakers will have to reduce production; travel already significantly impacted; you saw earlier today on BBI, something as niche as hockey sticks, one Leafs' player (I think) saying he'll have to make sure to break fewer of them.

Yes, China reporting is suspect; even with test kits, there is a high % of false negatives, which further skews detection, tracking, deaths/recovery numbers. This is still very early in this viral history; it shows fast morphing of genetic structure

from Johns Hopkins that said China is short on the resources to test suspected cases and so they are only testing the worse cases.

This implies that the actual number of cases are quite understated, I would think

in Japan. i think there will be more of that kind of thing in the near future.

would suggest that by the end of the month we're going to be looking at some very large numbers of infected.

I hope that those early reports of an AIDS/flu treatment cocktail working for nCov turn out to be true.

don’t take anything China says at face value. Any numbers they give, double them. And they are for sure short on resources. If it’s an airborne virus, the density of their population is a BIG problem.

delegation (60+ startups) in two weeks in Barcelona for Mobile World Congress. My office is supposed to set B2B meetings for them at the show with potential strategic partners. Normally, the show hosts well over 100k+ people.
Since this past weekend:
-Ericsson
-LG
-Sony
-TCL
-Apple
-Amazon
-Lenovo
-and I'm told maybe Verizon

have all canceled their participation.

good people here in the states. I respect their China towns and they are very loyal and support their own.
That said, this may very well be more serious then they say.....likely

In comment 14808467 DaddyM89 said:

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do you think theres a chance by then they could be quarantining all international travel?

No.

There is a lot of speculation that there are a lot more cases than have been reported, particularly because the symptoms for most people are fairly mild. There’s speculation that the outbreak began slightly earlier than thought originally. Both of those lead to the assumption that the number of cases is being underreported. But nobody thinks that the number of deaths is being underreported. So, that actually makes the mortality rate *lower* (same # deaths/greater # of cases). Also, the thought is that the main reason why there are as many deaths as there are is that the medical care and hospital structure, especially early on, in Wuhan was insufficient. So, perhaps not a realistic perspective on the death number going forward.

In the US, there have been 12 confirmed cases but only 2 person to person transmissions. By presidential order, nobody traveling from China (or maybe it’s limited to Hubei province) who is not a US citizen or resident is allowed into the country. US citizens or residents coming from China are all screened and , if symptomatic, quarantined for 14 days.

The main people at risk are those people >60 yrs old and with other health problems.

I listened in on a national CDC conference call today and their bottom line is..at least at present...there is a high potential for a global pandemic but a low risk for the United States. As of this weekend most states, and likely soon all states, will have the ability to test for the virus in patients.

There’s still much we don’t know and things are changing rapidly. But CDC says we’ve been planning containment, monitoring ,etc for pandemics for a while and are as prepared as they can be for spreading here.

And something like 15 million flu exposures in the US with 15,000 deaths so far. Just for some perspective.

Is the denominator. All we know is mortality of those that present and are identified .
How many never present because of a milder Illness??

In comment 14808460 EricJ said:

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in the business world. Suppose one area of china is locked down due to the virus and manufacturing facilities are also shut down.

It has been a disaster. Force majeure clauses being exercised everywhere.

She was on a hiking trip in Taiwan when the outbreak hit critical mass a couple weeks ago. China banned her hiking group from returning until this passed Saturday. She text me. She can’t give me detailed updates because they monitor all her comms. She seems ok and says people are all wearing face masks but other than that she hasn’t seen a bunch of sick dying people in Beijing. But her texts are yes/no answers and she could be keeping a lot of info to herself. But the fact they let them back in the country after keeping them out so long makes me think they may have a better handle on it now than before.

If a few million die. Never mind a few thousand.

In comment 14808547 Tom in Kzoo said:

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Is the denominator. All we know is mortality of those that present and are identified . How many never present because of a milder Illness??

In China, I think the numerator - deaths - is the bigger unknown. I could very easily see them trying to tamp that down...

Thankfully no one in our China office has been sick, but everyone is basically on lockdown at home. Terrible circumstances.

In comment 14808561 LauderdaleMatty said:

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If a few million die. Never mind a few thousand.

Unfortunately, I think this is very likely the case. It's about getting this situation under control and over as soon as possible Human life be damned...

has done no favors downplaying it from the start.

Thousands are in stable condition.

Death being a stable condition.

In comment 14808561 LauderdaleMatty said:

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If a few million die. Never mind a few thousand.

A few million lives are certainly nothing compared to the face saving and good optics of government officials, you can assume that. A reason why they keep having these outbreaks.

Seems like the safest place to be right now.

😉

In comment 14808606 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:

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has done no favors downplaying it from the start.

Just to be fair, the Chinese have been way more open than they were with SARS. The identification and publishing of this coronavirus sequence and early epidemiological reports has put people in much much better position than they otherwise would be. China will never be the west wrt transparency (and who really knows what happened to the doc who first reported this outbreak) but they have been fairly decent and, relative to their history, extraordinarily open.

In comment 14808665 Bill L said:

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In comment 14808606 SFGFNCGiantsFan said: Quote: has done no favors downplaying it from the start. Just to be fair, the Chinese have been way more open than they were with SARS. The identification and publishing of this coronavirus sequence and early epidemiological reports has put people in much much better position than they otherwise would be. China will never be the west wrt transparency (and who really knows what happened to the doc who first reported this outbreak) but they have been fairly decent and, relative to their history, extraordinarily open.

I wonder how much of that is because of the dependency that China has on the rest of the world now relative to back in the early 2000's. I doubt it's so much a political shift on China's part than it is a mandate from business partners.

In one of the articles I read I believe they stated that the daily travel in and out of China has increased 20x since the SARS outbreak.

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A patient had been allowed to leave UC San Diego hospital, after a testing mistake showed that person was free of the virus. According to a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health late Monday, all four patients admitted to its isolation units last week were discharged back to their quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC said coronavirus tests came back negative. Further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for coronavirus. The confirmed positive patient was returned to the hospital for observation and isolation until cleared by CDC for release

CDC identifies 13th patient with coronavirus in U.S. - ( New Window )

In comment 14808728 Canton said:

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Quote: A patient had been allowed to leave UC San Diego hospital, after a testing mistake showed that person was free of the virus. According to a brief statement released by UC San Diego Health late Monday, all four patients admitted to its isolation units last week were discharged back to their quarantine quarters at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar after the CDC said coronavirus tests came back negative. Further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for coronavirus. The confirmed positive patient was returned to the hospital for observation and isolation until cleared by CDC for release CDC identifies 13th patient with coronavirus in U.S. - ( New Window )

That person did go back into quarantine though, so there was no danger to anybody.

In comment 14808642 Jalapeno said:

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Seems like the safest place to be right now. 😉

They probably have samples of the virus and are weaponizing it as we speak.

decreasing.

That's good news.

Those Hong Kong protests lately though...

In comment 14808877 kelsto811 said:

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Those Hong Kong protests lately though...

thats what i am saying. Dont think that this was used as a weapon to shut that shit down. crazy if so but anything is possible in this world now

they have other ways to do 'crowd control' - they don't have to unleash a biological agent that they don't have a vaccine or a treatment for. This is going to cost them billions.

Detained a woman from China and confiscated a bag which contained dead baby birds; when questioned she said it was cat food! They re being very vigilant. This was at Dulles airport.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 14808942 Bleedin Blue said:

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Detained a woman from China and confiscated a bag which contained dead baby birds; when questioned she said it was cat food! They re being very vigilant. This was at Dulles airport. Link - ( New Window )

I don't think that this is coronavirus-related. I don't think you were *ever* able to bring that sort of thing into the US. It sounds like a smuggling case to me.

There has to be something positive to read into the fact that the Chinese are telling people to start getting back to work.

In comment 14809194 jcn56 said:

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There has to be something positive to read into the fact that the Chinese are telling people to start getting back to work.

At work we’ve been calling it “Wuhan”. But that’s a big no no since swine flu cost millions by people unnecessarily whacking perfectly good pigs and MERS was deemed Islamaphobic. WHO now disallows names of species or geography, etc because it could be prejudicial.

Is that the first Japanese guy to pass from this was declared Corona by Japanese authorities and pneumonia by Chinese. So who really knows what that death count should actually be at.

Die of the flu every year. The media hype over Coronavirus is still important.

In comment 14809257 Bill L said:

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At work we’ve been calling it “Wuhan”. But that’s a big no no since swine flu cost millions by people unnecessarily whacking perfectly good pigs and MERS was deemed Islamaphobic. WHO now disallows names of species or geography, etc because it could be prejudicial.

I guess the fine people at Cerveceria Modelo deserve no protection from prejudice? The WHO are such beer snobs.

Corona tastes like a virus, that's why it needs limes.

thirsty my friends....

on the Coronavirus. Big ramp up in cases today in Hubei Province. Over 14K.

So much for things starting to settle...

Not a single case in the hermit kingdom......