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NFT: NFT: Happy PECOTA day for baseball nerds

Matt in SGS : 2/11/2020 12:57 pm
It's the annual time where PECOTA puts out their data crunching and figures out the projected records for 2020. From the looks of it, they are seeing Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series with both having the best records in their divisions (with the Dodgers basically having a near 100% chance of winning the NL West)

And Mets fans will be happy, PECOTA is predicting they win the NL East.

Feel free to take a look at the link for more details, but their division winner predictions

AL East- Yankees
AL Central- Twins
AL West- Astros

NL East- Mets
NL Central- Reds
NL West- Dodgers
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ - ( New Window )
I'll take the under  
arniefez : 2/11/2020 3:10 pm : link
on Baltimore winning 62. Miami 71 would surprise me too.
how accurate is it?  
Gordo : 2/11/2020 4:05 pm : link
have they been compared to previous years?
I'd take the over on Yanks winning 99  
speedywheels : 2/11/2020 4:52 pm : link
But certainly hope they are right about the Mets!
RE: how accurate is it?  
The_Boss : 2/11/2020 4:54 pm : link
In comment 14809105 Gordo said:
Quote:
have they been compared to previous years?


Hereís last year...not even close at first glance
Link - ( New Window )
Last year's..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 2/11/2020 5:12 pm : link
wasn't terrible. I think they pegged 4 division winners.
RE: Last year's..  
The_Boss : 2/11/2020 8:59 pm : link
In comment 14809142 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
wasn't terrible. I think they pegged 4 division winners.


I was going off their win projections. Many, especially in the AL were way off in 2019.
Reds would surprise me  
ZGiants98 : 2/11/2020 9:21 pm : link
Rest certainly seems feasible.
I have always put little faith in PECOTA  
Vanzetti : 2/12/2020 5:33 pm : link
But now they have the Mets winning the division, itís A sign they have really improved their methodology
PECOTA is very good at predicting individual performance  
WideRight : 2/12/2020 7:44 pm : link

The rate stats are the best prognostics out there. They go askew with injuries and playing time, obviously impacting the quant stats, and team standings.

So if you want to win your fantasy league use their rate stats and figure out playing time, and you will win.

I won two years in a row with that strategy in a hyper competitive league. Still requires luck because of injuries.
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