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NFT: Tracking the Coronavirus

BigBlueDownTheShore : 2/12/2020 10:06 pm
Iíve been tracking this outbreak via the linked GIS Data Heat Map.

Today was the largest spike in recorded cases to date. It jumped 15k in one day after looking like it was going to plateau.

GIS Data Heat Map - ( New Window )
That death toll isnít as high as I thought it was  
nyjuggernaut2 : 2/12/2020 10:17 pm : link
if those numbers are accurate than only a little over 2% of the people who have or had the virus have died from it. Still awful nonetheless, but based off some reports the percentage of deaths seemed a lot worse.
RE: That death toll isnít as high as I thought it was  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 2/12/2020 10:30 pm : link
In comment 14810081 nyjuggernaut2 said:
Quote:
if those numbers are accurate than only a little over 2% of the people who have or had the virus have died from it. Still awful nonetheless, but based off some reports the percentage of deaths seemed a lot worse.


The problem is we are relying on the Chinese government to provide accurate information on death counts.
Thanks for posting  
flycatcher : 2/12/2020 10:44 pm : link
Yes,15,000 new cases in one day, in Hubei.
Donít believe the death toll, itís obviously being under-reported by the Chinese gvmt, and our own media as well.
Itís difficult to gauge how it will play out here in North America. On one hand the confirmed US cases remains very low (thankfully), but across the ocean they had15,000 new cases in a day.
The mortality rate is highly skewed  
Bill L : 2/12/2020 10:46 pm : link
Because of the abysmal medical capacity in Wuhan. A better predictor would be the known cases outside of China where there have been very few deaths. Further, almost all of the people, even in China, who succumb are both over 60 and also have some sort of additional medical condition. Otherwise, itís a fairly mild disease so far.

I think the chances of a major outbreak in the US are still low. CDC rates it as low risk. Of course, thatís ďso farĒ.

A bigger concern than importation here from China right now might be Africa. Thereís huge movement of Chinese into Africa. Thereís little effort to stop that even now and little structure there to handle either monitoring , prevent importation, or handle outbreaks. Poor medical care.

But even there people worry about the wrong things. Just like here where the flu is an exponentially greater danger than Coronavirus and much more preventable (heck, an RPI student up here just passed away because of the flu) in Africa there are so many threats. Fun fact, in the African countries where there were outbreaks of Ebola this year and numerous death, there were several multiple more deaths due to....measles. Now thatís an outrage.
the  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 2/12/2020 10:52 pm : link
"China reshuffled top officials in Hubei, as the number of new cases and deaths surged after the province at the center of the coronavirus epidemic revised its method for counting infections."

Take it for what it is worth, but they are apparently "counting" cases differently now.
The world has 7.53 Billion people.....  
No Where Man : 2/12/2020 11:00 pm : link
2% of that is 180 million.....
The world has 7.53 Billion people.....  
No Where Man : 2/12/2020 11:00 pm : link
2% of that is 180 million.....
I believe that outside of China there are now 476 cases  
Bill L : 2/12/2020 11:10 pm : link
And no deaths. Well 2, but those are one each in HK and the Philippines, so Chinese-lite. Discounting that, the non-China mortality rate is 0/474.
RE: the  
Bill L : 2/12/2020 11:12 pm : link
In comment 14810098 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
"China reshuffled top officials in Hubei, as the number of new cases and deaths surged after the province at the center of the coronavirus epidemic revised its method for counting infections."

Take it for what it is worth, but they are apparently "counting" cases differently now.

Theyíre calling them based on clinical diagnoses. Symptoms and CT scans I think. That helps facilitate aid and care. But I think that means that theyíre counting people without any laboratory detection of Coronavirus so itís possible theyíre lumping in other respiratory infections into the case count.
RE: The world has 7.53 Billion people.....  
RomanWH : 2/12/2020 11:14 pm : link
In comment 14810100 No Where Man said:
Quote:
2% of that is 180 million.....


No, it isn't. It's a little over 150 million. 7.53 x .02 = 0.1506.
RE: I believe that outside of China there are now 476 cases  
Bill L : 2/12/2020 11:15 pm : link
In comment 14810102 Bill L said:
Quote:
And no deaths. Well 2, but those are one each in HK and the Philippines, so Chinese-lite. Discounting that, the non-China mortality rate is 0/474.


Also consider that we have a nice incubator experiment going on with the cruise ship parked outside of Yokohama. I think theyíre well above a hundred cases now with no deaths. I donít even know if there are very many seriously ill people among them. There may be, I donít know.
174 positives on the cruise ship  
Bill L : 2/12/2020 11:30 pm : link
So we should have seen 4 deaths, going by that number.

Mentioned yesterday was the new nomenclature: COVID-19. That turns out to be the disease name. The name of the virus is now: SARS-CoV-2. Itís named because itís a very close sister to SARS (85-85% genetically identical). ďCoronavirusĒ is actually a family of viruses, not a specific one. Both SARS and SARS-CoV-2 absolutely originated in bats. Thereís some evidence that for SARS there was spillover into other animal species, including civet cats, and then into humans. Itís assumed but not proven yet that there is an intermediate host for this new Coronavirus. What might be scarier, is that the species of bats that carries SARS-CoV-2 carries about 500 other SARS-type Coronaviruses.
RE: RE: The world has 7.53 Billion people.....  
bw in dc : 2/13/2020 12:11 am : link
In comment 14810104 RomanWH said:
Quote:
In comment 14810100 No Where Man said:


Quote:


2% of that is 180 million.....



No, it isn't. It's a little over 150 million. 7.53 x .02 = 0.1506.


The death rate is closer to 2.5%. So it is 180M+. ;)
RE: I believe that outside of China there are now 476 cases  
Milton : 2/13/2020 12:13 am : link
In comment 14810102 Bill L said:
Quote:
And no deaths. Well 2, but those are one each in HK and the Philippines, so Chinese-lite. Discounting that, the non-China mortality rate is 0/474.
If you are discounting deaths from HK and the Philippines you also have to remove all known cases of it in HK and the Philippines. So it's less than 474 from which there are no deaths outside of China, HK, and Philippines.
By comparison, the world population....  
MOOPS : 2/13/2020 2:00 am : link
in 1918-1919 was approximately 1.8 billion. There were an estimated 40 million deaths worldwide at that time from the great flu epidemic.
CDC reported  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 2/13/2020 5:45 am : link
That the number of cases in the US is going to increase.
Nature has its way of correcting itself  
Earl the goat : 2/13/2020 7:31 am : link
Whether itís natural disasters or a plague
In Chinaís case nature is trying to correct itself from overpopulation with this virus
RE: Nature has its way of correcting itself  
Sec 103 : 2/13/2020 7:57 am : link
In comment 14810166 Earl the goat said:
Quote:
Whether itís natural disasters or a plague
In Chinaís case nature is trying to correct itself from overpopulation with this virus

Nature needs to go to the mattresses every so often to keep us in check, other wise we will spread like cockroaches... Sad but true.
RE: RE: Nature has its way of correcting itself  
section125 : 2/13/2020 8:28 am : link
In comment 14810182 Sec 103 said:
Quote:
In comment 14810166 Earl the goat said:


Quote:


Whether itís natural disasters or a plague
In Chinaís case nature is trying to correct itself from overpopulation with this virus


Nature needs to go to the mattresses every so often to keep us in check, other wise we will spread like cockroaches... Sad but true.


Ha, cock roaches don't die from very much....
RE: RE: I believe that outside of China there are now 476 cases  
Bill L : 2/13/2020 8:50 am : link
In comment 14810120 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 14810102 Bill L said:


Quote:


And no deaths. Well 2, but those are one each in HK and the Philippines, so Chinese-lite. Discounting that, the non-China mortality rate is 0/474.

If you are discounting deaths from HK and the Philippines you also have to remove all known cases of it in HK and the Philippines. So it's less than 474 from which there are no deaths outside of China, HK, and Philippines.


Good point. There are (as of 02/11) 52 cases (49 from HK and 3 from Philippines). So, the mortality rate would be 0/422. Using the 2.2% number we have been using without discounting factors unique to China, then we should have seen 9 deaths already.
RE: CDC reported  
Bill L : 2/13/2020 8:52 am : link
In comment 14810142 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
That the number of cases in the US is going to increase.


That seems pretty self-evident. But they are still calling it a low risk situation and as much as we are prone to hyperbole and panic, we really should try to temper that. Unless your >60 with a pre-existing debilitating condition and Chinese. Then, you should start shopping for a plot.
RE: RE: The world has 7.53 Billion people.....  
Gatorade Dunk : 2/13/2020 8:59 am : link
In comment 14810104 RomanWH said:
Quote:
In comment 14810100 No Where Man said:


Quote:


2% of that is 180 million.....



No, it isn't. It's a little over 150 million. 7.53 x .02 = 0.1506.

Phew, I hope I fall into the 30 million who would have been overreported in the original number and not the 150 million human beings who would die in this extrapolation.
I just wonder how close to accurate the Chinese  
jcn56 : 2/13/2020 9:10 am : link
reporting has been. Difference in the way the cases are being designated aside, the Chinese also have an integrity issue when it comes to reporting. Question is, are these numbers off, way off, or way, way off.

I figured the good sign was that the spread outside of China has been relatively limited, and given the incubation period you figure a massive outbreak would have happened already. But if there are a million Chinese infected (speculating on the way way off scenario), then loosening travel restrictions and getting everyone back to work could change that drastically in the next couple of weeks.
RE: I just wonder how close to accurate the Chinese  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 2/13/2020 10:28 am : link
In comment 14810219 jcn56 said:
Quote:
reporting has been. Difference in the way the cases are being designated aside, the Chinese also have an integrity issue when it comes to reporting. Question is, are these numbers off, way off, or way, way off.

I figured the good sign was that the spread outside of China has been relatively limited, and given the incubation period you figure a massive outbreak would have happened already. But if there are a million Chinese infected (speculating on the way way off scenario), then loosening travel restrictions and getting everyone back to work could change that drastically in the next couple of weeks.


What concerns me is as I have kept an eye on this graph over these past couple of weeks, the amount of infections in pretty rich countries like Germany, Great Britain, France, and Australia the number of cases has grown significantly. Germany and Great Britain have risen quite quickly in a weeks time.

India has 3 cases and I am almost positive itís going to get out of control there as they can barely handle swine flu when it outbreaks there.

Most concerning is Russia. I have a friend in China that has been giving me some reports. He works for a company that actually supplies medical masks. Russia just ordered a huge amount of masks from his company.

Russia is not exactly the most honest country either, so the 2 cases there could be under reported as well.
I hate to say it  
allstarjim : 2/13/2020 10:34 am : link
Kind of rooting for the virus!

The traffic every time I leave my house, oh vey!
It's A Keeper  
Percy : 2/13/2020 11:02 am : link
like it or not. New, shorter name: Covid-19. Stay tuned. Have to wait, usually until early dinner time in the East to catch up on where things stand. Then go to WorldOmeter. Addicted to it myself. Worried, too. Kills well over 2% and about 14% of those who become seriously ill with it. And it spreads easily, staying hidden in an ill person for a long time while that person -- not showing symptoms -- unknowingly helps the spreading.
It jumped....  
HoustonGiant : 2/13/2020 11:02 am : link
because China can't keep lying.

The numbers are still far worse.


RE: It jumped....  
Percy : 2/13/2020 11:09 am : link
In comment 14810358 HoustonGiant said:
Quote:
because China can't keep lying.

The numbers are still far worse.


Well, there's money (trade) and people. They don't have enough of the former, but do have lots of the latter. So they dissemble.
RE: It's A Keeper  
Bill L : 2/13/2020 11:28 am : link
In comment 14810356 Percy said:
Quote:
like it or not. New, shorter name: Covid-19. SARS-CoV-2

Stay tuned. Have to wait, usually until early dinner time in the East to catch up on where things stand. Then go to WorldOmeter. Addicted to it myself. Worried, too. Kills well over 2% if you are in Hubei Province and about 14% of those who become seriously ill with it. And it spreads easily if you are a close contact, staying hidden in an ill person for a long time total incubation period for quarantine purposes is 14 dwhile that person -- not showing symptoms -- unknowingly helps the spreading.
Bill's Edits  
Percy : 2/13/2020 2:22 pm : link
All true, but "close contact" means within six feet or in same room for "a prolonged period," whatever that is, and the incubation period may be longer (up to 24 days according to new study by Zhong Nan-Shan published on February 9 -- not peer reviewed).
RE: Bill's Edits  
Bill L : 2/13/2020 2:46 pm : link
In comment 14810582 Percy said:
Quote:
All true, but "close contact" means within six feet or in same room for "a prolonged period," whatever that is, and the incubation period may be longer (up to 24 days according to new study by Zhong Nan-Shan published on February 9 -- not peer reviewed).


This is why the Yokohama ship might actually be a good ting. All sorts of things to study and get clarity; how close is close, modes of transmission, etc.
North Korea anyone?  
WideRight : 2/13/2020 2:58 pm : link
There are supposed 4 deaths there already.

Between the poor health of the population, and the insufficient health care services, I'm predicting a 5-10% death rate and > 50,000 dead when its all done.
RE: RE: Bill's Edits  
Percy : 2/13/2020 5:46 pm : link
In comment 14810597 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14810582 Percy said:


Quote:


All true, but "close contact" means within six feet or in same room for "a prolonged period," whatever that is, and the incubation period may be longer (up to 24 days according to new study by Zhong Nan-Shan published on February 9 -- not peer reviewed).



This is why the Yokohama ship might actually be a good ting. All sorts of things to study and get clarity; how close is close, modes of transmission, etc.


Right. At last count 218 of just under 3,500 passengers and crew on the ship have it. "Although some . . . will be released early, the pool of those eligible for offshore quarantine is still quite narrow: guests 80 or older who have existing medical conditions or are stuck in cabins without windows or balconies." And this: ďOn the ship, infections are getting very dense. ... It now provides a favorable environment for the virus to spread and I think it's time for people to get off,Ē said Shigeru Omi, an infectious disease prevention expert. . . . NYT.
The flu doesnít kill people  
LauderdaleMatty : 2/13/2020 7:31 pm : link
It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.

China culling the herd
RE: The flu doesnít kill people  
Bill L : 2/13/2020 8:34 pm : link
In comment 14810823 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:
It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.

China culling the herd
As of February 1, at least 12,000 people in the US had been killed by the flu. This past week a 24 year old student at a local college here was killed by the flu.
RE: RE: The flu doesnít kill people  
LauderdaleMatty : 2/14/2020 7:36 am : link
In comment 14810862 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14810823 LauderdaleMatty said:


Quote:


It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.

China culling the herd

As of February 1, at least 12,000 people in the US had been killed by the flu. This past week a 24 year old student at a local college here was killed by the flu.


Itís flu related deaths. If you get the flu then die of sepsis from pneumonia what killed you?My job is selling equipment for acute kidney injury and hemodynamically unstable patients who suffer multi organ failure often as their bodies can not fight the infections they get when the flu weakens them.

Itís semantics but thatís why the flu shot is so important In The old and young as once sick and is such a weakened state they canít fight things they normally can. But I guess my work experience and years On the job is no match for your google skills.
Don't feel bad - I have read Bill's posts  
jcn56 : 2/14/2020 8:47 am : link
he has some sick Google skills.
RE: RE: RE: The flu doesnít kill people  
Bill L : 2/14/2020 8:52 am : link
In comment 14810949 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:
In comment 14810862 Bill L said:


Quote:


In comment 14810823 LauderdaleMatty said:


Quote:


It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.

China culling the herd

As of February 1, at least 12,000 people in the US had been killed by the flu. This past week a 24 year old student at a local college here was killed by the flu.



Itís flu related deaths. If you get the flu then die of sepsis from pneumonia what killed you?My job is selling equipment for acute kidney injury and hemodynamically unstable patients who suffer multi organ failure often as their bodies can not fight the infections they get when the flu weakens them.

Itís semantics but thatís why the flu shot is so important In The old and young as once sick and is such a weakened state they canít fight things they normally can. But I guess my work experience and years On the job is no match for your google skills.


Well, I won't argue that flu does weaken you and that there aren't added complications resulting from the flu that do include bacterial pneumonia. However, the flu itself is destructive to airways and the immune response to the virus also is destructive airways and both of those can directly cause death.

But I would argue that not only are my google skills superb, but I'll match my work (and other) experience against yours in this area.
COVID-19  
Percy : 2/14/2020 10:54 pm : link
67,101 confirmed cases
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China
PS  
Percy : 2/14/2020 10:58 pm : link
In 29 countries
RE: COVID-19  
bw in dc : 2/14/2020 11:29 pm : link
In comment 14811582 Percy said:
Quote:
67,101 confirmed cases
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China


Based on these numbers, death rate at 2.2%.

The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.

I guess most of them are in China, right?
RE: RE: COVID-19  
Percy : 2/14/2020 11:46 pm : link
In comment 14811590 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14811582 Percy said:


Quote:


67,101 confirmed cases
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China



Based on these numbers, death rate at 2.2%.

The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.

I guess most of them are in China, right?


Odds are. No real sign that anyone outside of there is in the serious/critical category. If in it, of course, real jeopardy ensues. But a couple of people outside of China have died so one might think they must have gone to "critical" before that happened, reported or not.
RE: RE: COVID-19  
Percy : 2/15/2020 12:07 am : link
In comment 14811590 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14811582 Percy said:


Quote:


. . .


Based on these numbers, death rate at 2.2%.

The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.

I guess most of them are in China, right?


I misinformed you above: some 29 patients outside of China are in serious/critical condition. Death rate of those admitted to the hospital: "A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time."
The death count outside of China is almost nil  
Bill L : 2/15/2020 12:00 pm : link
Nothing in western countries and the count remains 2 or 3 in China-adjacent countries. In fact, even *within* China, something like 95% of the death are in Hubei province. When you calculate mortality rates, itís something like 2-3% in Hubei and less than a half a percent in other Chinese provinces. This really makes you think that 1) saying that the mortality rate is 2.2% over-aggregates by a large margin. So far, it seems like itís fairly benign. 2) thereís something funky in Hubei province wrt medical care and readiness to handles outbreaks of any sort. A third overall point to note is that the mortality rate for anyone under 60 or even 65 is pretty negligible, with the exception of people with additional health issues going on.
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