if those numbers are accurate than only a little over 2% of the people who have or had the virus have died from it. Still awful nonetheless, but based off some reports the percentage of deaths seemed a lot worse.
RE: That death toll isn’t as high as I thought it was Â
if those numbers are accurate than only a little over 2% of the people who have or had the virus have died from it. Still awful nonetheless, but based off some reports the percentage of deaths seemed a lot worse.
The problem is we are relying on the Chinese government to provide accurate information on death counts.
Yes,15,000 new cases in one day, in Hubei.
Don’t believe the death toll, it’s obviously being under-reported by the Chinese gvmt, and our own media as well.
It’s difficult to gauge how it will play out here in North America. On one hand the confirmed US cases remains very low (thankfully), but across the ocean they had15,000 new cases in a day.
Because of the abysmal medical capacity in Wuhan. A better predictor would be the known cases outside of China where there have been very few deaths. Further, almost all of the people, even in China, who succumb are both over 60 and also have some sort of additional medical condition. Otherwise, it’s a fairly mild disease so far.
I think the chances of a major outbreak in the US are still low. CDC rates it as low risk. Of course, that’s “so far”.
A bigger concern than importation here from China right now might be Africa. There’s huge movement of Chinese into Africa. There’s little effort to stop that even now and little structure there to handle either monitoring , prevent importation, or handle outbreaks. Poor medical care.
But even there people worry about the wrong things. Just like here where the flu is an exponentially greater danger than Coronavirus and much more preventable (heck, an RPI student up here just passed away because of the flu) in Africa there are so many threats. Fun fact, in the African countries where there were outbreaks of Ebola this year and numerous death, there were several multiple more deaths due to....measles. Now that’s an outrage.
"China reshuffled top officials in Hubei, as the number of new cases and deaths surged after the province at the center of the coronavirus epidemic revised its method for counting infections."
Take it for what it is worth, but they are apparently "counting" cases differently now.
"China reshuffled top officials in Hubei, as the number of new cases and deaths surged after the province at the center of the coronavirus epidemic revised its method for counting infections."
Take it for what it is worth, but they are apparently "counting" cases differently now.
They’re calling them based on clinical diagnoses. Symptoms and CT scans I think. That helps facilitate aid and care. But I think that means that they’re counting people without any laboratory detection of Coronavirus so it’s possible they’re lumping in other respiratory infections into the case count.
And no deaths. Well 2, but those are one each in HK and the Philippines, so Chinese-lite. Discounting that, the non-China mortality rate is 0/474.
Also consider that we have a nice incubator experiment going on with the cruise ship parked outside of Yokohama. I think they’re well above a hundred cases now with no deaths. I don’t even know if there are very many seriously ill people among them. There may be, I don’t know.
So we should have seen 4 deaths, going by that number.
Mentioned yesterday was the new nomenclature: COVID-19. That turns out to be the disease name. The name of the virus is now: SARS-CoV-2. It’s named because it’s a very close sister to SARS (85-85% genetically identical). “Coronavirus” is actually a family of viruses, not a specific one. Both SARS and SARS-CoV-2 absolutely originated in bats. There’s some evidence that for SARS there was spillover into other animal species, including civet cats, and then into humans. It’s assumed but not proven yet that there is an intermediate host for this new Coronavirus. What might be scarier, is that the species of bats that carries SARS-CoV-2 carries about 500 other SARS-type Coronaviruses.
And no deaths. Well 2, but those are one each in HK and the Philippines, so Chinese-lite. Discounting that, the non-China mortality rate is 0/474.
If you are discounting deaths from HK and the Philippines you also have to remove all known cases of it in HK and the Philippines. So it's less than 474 from which there are no deaths outside of China, HK, and Philippines.
And no deaths. Well 2, but those are one each in HK and the Philippines, so Chinese-lite. Discounting that, the non-China mortality rate is 0/474.
If you are discounting deaths from HK and the Philippines you also have to remove all known cases of it in HK and the Philippines. So it's less than 474 from which there are no deaths outside of China, HK, and Philippines.
Good point. There are (as of 02/11) 52 cases (49 from HK and 3 from Philippines). So, the mortality rate would be 0/422. Using the 2.2% number we have been using without discounting factors unique to China, then we should have seen 9 deaths already.
That the number of cases in the US is going to increase.
That seems pretty self-evident. But they are still calling it a low risk situation and as much as we are prone to hyperbole and panic, we really should try to temper that. Unless your >60 with a pre-existing debilitating condition and Chinese. Then, you should start shopping for a plot.
No, it isn't. It's a little over 150 million. 7.53 x .02 = 0.1506.
Phew, I hope I fall into the 30 million who would have been overreported in the original number and not the 150 million human beings who would die in this extrapolation.
reporting has been. Difference in the way the cases are being designated aside, the Chinese also have an integrity issue when it comes to reporting. Question is, are these numbers off, way off, or way, way off.
I figured the good sign was that the spread outside of China has been relatively limited, and given the incubation period you figure a massive outbreak would have happened already. But if there are a million Chinese infected (speculating on the way way off scenario), then loosening travel restrictions and getting everyone back to work could change that drastically in the next couple of weeks.
RE: I just wonder how close to accurate the Chinese Â
reporting has been. Difference in the way the cases are being designated aside, the Chinese also have an integrity issue when it comes to reporting. Question is, are these numbers off, way off, or way, way off.
I figured the good sign was that the spread outside of China has been relatively limited, and given the incubation period you figure a massive outbreak would have happened already. But if there are a million Chinese infected (speculating on the way way off scenario), then loosening travel restrictions and getting everyone back to work could change that drastically in the next couple of weeks.
What concerns me is as I have kept an eye on this graph over these past couple of weeks, the amount of infections in pretty rich countries like Germany, Great Britain, France, and Australia the number of cases has grown significantly. Germany and Great Britain have risen quite quickly in a weeks time.
India has 3 cases and I am almost positive it’s going to get out of control there as they can barely handle swine flu when it outbreaks there.
Most concerning is Russia. I have a friend in China that has been giving me some reports. He works for a company that actually supplies medical masks. Russia just ordered a huge amount of masks from his company.
Russia is not exactly the most honest country either, so the 2 cases there could be under reported as well.
like it or not. New, shorter name: Covid-19. Stay tuned. Have to wait, usually until early dinner time in the East to catch up on where things stand. Then go to WorldOmeter. Addicted to it myself. Worried, too. Kills well over 2% and about 14% of those who become seriously ill with it. And it spreads easily, staying hidden in an ill person for a long time while that person -- not showing symptoms -- unknowingly helps the spreading.
like it or not. New, shorter name: Covid-19. SARS-CoV-2
Stay tuned. Have to wait, usually until early dinner time in the East to catch up on where things stand. Then go to WorldOmeter. Addicted to it myself. Worried, too. Kills well over 2% if you are in Hubei Province and about 14% of those who become seriously ill with it. And it spreads easily if you are a close contact, staying hidden in an ill person for a long time total incubation period for quarantine purposes is 14 dwhile that person -- not showing symptoms -- unknowingly helps the spreading.
All true, but "close contact" means within six feet or in same room for "a prolonged period," whatever that is, and the incubation period may be longer (up to 24 days according to new study by Zhong Nan-Shan published on February 9 -- not peer reviewed).
All true, but "close contact" means within six feet or in same room for "a prolonged period," whatever that is, and the incubation period may be longer (up to 24 days according to new study by Zhong Nan-Shan published on February 9 -- not peer reviewed).
This is why the Yokohama ship might actually be a good ting. All sorts of things to study and get clarity; how close is close, modes of transmission, etc.
Between the poor health of the population, and the insufficient health care services, I'm predicting a 5-10% death rate and > 50,000 dead when its all done.
All true, but "close contact" means within six feet or in same room for "a prolonged period," whatever that is, and the incubation period may be longer (up to 24 days according to new study by Zhong Nan-Shan published on February 9 -- not peer reviewed).
This is why the Yokohama ship might actually be a good ting. All sorts of things to study and get clarity; how close is close, modes of transmission, etc.
Right. At last count 218 of just under 3,500 passengers and crew on the ship have it. "Although some . . . will be released early, the pool of those eligible for offshore quarantine is still quite narrow: guests 80 or older who have existing medical conditions or are stuck in cabins without windows or balconies." And this: “On the ship, infections are getting very dense. ... It now provides a favorable environment for the virus to spread and I think it's time for people to get off,” said Shigeru Omi, an infectious disease prevention expert. . . . NYT.
It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.
It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.
China culling the herd
As of February 1, at least 12,000 people in the US had been killed by the flu. This past week a 24 year old student at a local college here was killed by the flu.
It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.
China culling the herd
As of February 1, at least 12,000 people in the US had been killed by the flu. This past week a 24 year old student at a local college here was killed by the flu.
It’s flu related deaths. If you get the flu then die of sepsis from pneumonia what killed you?My job is selling equipment for acute kidney injury and hemodynamically unstable patients who suffer multi organ failure often as their bodies can not fight the infections they get when the flu weakens them.
It’s semantics but that’s why the flu shot is so important In The old and young as once sick and is such a weakened state they can’t fight things they normally can. But I guess my work experience and years On the job is no match for your google skills.
It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.
China culling the herd
As of February 1, at least 12,000 people in the US had been killed by the flu. This past week a 24 year old student at a local college here was killed by the flu.
It’s flu related deaths. If you get the flu then die of sepsis from pneumonia what killed you?My job is selling equipment for acute kidney injury and hemodynamically unstable patients who suffer multi organ failure often as their bodies can not fight the infections they get when the flu weakens them.
It’s semantics but that’s why the flu shot is so important In The old and young as once sick and is such a weakened state they can’t fight things they normally can. But I guess my work experience and years On the job is no match for your google skills.
Well, I won't argue that flu does weaken you and that there aren't added complications resulting from the flu that do include bacterial pneumonia. However, the flu itself is destructive to airways and the immune response to the virus also is destructive airways and both of those can directly cause death.
But I would argue that not only are my google skills superb, but I'll match my work (and other) experience against yours in this area.
67,101 confirmed cases
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China
67,101 confirmed cases
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China
Based on these numbers, death rate at 2.2%.
The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.
67,101 confirmed cases
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China
Based on these numbers, death rate at 2.2%.
The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.
I guess most of them are in China, right?
Odds are. No real sign that anyone outside of there is in the serious/critical category. If in it, of course, real jeopardy ensues. But a couple of people outside of China have died so one might think they must have gone to "critical" before that happened, reported or not.
The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.
I guess most of them are in China, right?
I misinformed you above: some 29 patients outside of China are in serious/critical condition. Death rate of those admitted to the hospital: "A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time."
Nothing in western countries and the count remains 2 or 3 in China-adjacent countries. In fact, even *within* China, something like 95% of the death are in Hubei province. When you calculate mortality rates, it’s something like 2-3% in Hubei and less than a half a percent in other Chinese provinces. This really makes you think that 1) saying that the mortality rate is 2.2% over-aggregates by a large margin. So far, it seems like it’s fairly benign. 2) there’s something funky in Hubei province wrt medical care and readiness to handles outbreaks of any sort. A third overall point to note is that the mortality rate for anyone under 60 or even 65 is pretty negligible, with the exception of people with additional health issues going on.
The problem is we are relying on the Chinese government to provide accurate information on death counts.
Don’t believe the death toll, it’s obviously being under-reported by the Chinese gvmt, and our own media as well.
It’s difficult to gauge how it will play out here in North America. On one hand the confirmed US cases remains very low (thankfully), but across the ocean they had15,000 new cases in a day.
I think the chances of a major outbreak in the US are still low. CDC rates it as low risk. Of course, that’s “so far”.
A bigger concern than importation here from China right now might be Africa. There’s huge movement of Chinese into Africa. There’s little effort to stop that even now and little structure there to handle either monitoring , prevent importation, or handle outbreaks. Poor medical care.
But even there people worry about the wrong things. Just like here where the flu is an exponentially greater danger than Coronavirus and much more preventable (heck, an RPI student up here just passed away because of the flu) in Africa there are so many threats. Fun fact, in the African countries where there were outbreaks of Ebola this year and numerous death, there were several multiple more deaths due to....measles. Now that’s an outrage.
Take it for what it is worth, but they are apparently "counting" cases differently now.
Take it for what it is worth, but they are apparently "counting" cases differently now.
They’re calling them based on clinical diagnoses. Symptoms and CT scans I think. That helps facilitate aid and care. But I think that means that they’re counting people without any laboratory detection of Coronavirus so it’s possible they’re lumping in other respiratory infections into the case count.
No, it isn't. It's a little over 150 million. 7.53 x .02 = 0.1506.
Also consider that we have a nice incubator experiment going on with the cruise ship parked outside of Yokohama. I think they’re well above a hundred cases now with no deaths. I don’t even know if there are very many seriously ill people among them. There may be, I don’t know.
Mentioned yesterday was the new nomenclature: COVID-19. That turns out to be the disease name. The name of the virus is now: SARS-CoV-2. It’s named because it’s a very close sister to SARS (85-85% genetically identical). “Coronavirus” is actually a family of viruses, not a specific one. Both SARS and SARS-CoV-2 absolutely originated in bats. There’s some evidence that for SARS there was spillover into other animal species, including civet cats, and then into humans. It’s assumed but not proven yet that there is an intermediate host for this new Coronavirus. What might be scarier, is that the species of bats that carries SARS-CoV-2 carries about 500 other SARS-type Coronaviruses.
Quote:
2% of that is 180 million.....
No, it isn't. It's a little over 150 million. 7.53 x .02 = 0.1506.
The death rate is closer to 2.5%. So it is 180M+. ;)
In China’s case nature is trying to correct itself from overpopulation with this virus
In China’s case nature is trying to correct itself from overpopulation with this virus
Nature needs to go to the mattresses every so often to keep us in check, other wise we will spread like cockroaches... Sad but true.
Quote:
Whether it’s natural disasters or a plague
In China’s case nature is trying to correct itself from overpopulation with this virus
Nature needs to go to the mattresses every so often to keep us in check, other wise we will spread like cockroaches... Sad but true.
Ha, cock roaches don't die from very much....
Quote:
And no deaths. Well 2, but those are one each in HK and the Philippines, so Chinese-lite. Discounting that, the non-China mortality rate is 0/474.
If you are discounting deaths from HK and the Philippines you also have to remove all known cases of it in HK and the Philippines. So it's less than 474 from which there are no deaths outside of China, HK, and Philippines.
Good point. There are (as of 02/11) 52 cases (49 from HK and 3 from Philippines). So, the mortality rate would be 0/422. Using the 2.2% number we have been using without discounting factors unique to China, then we should have seen 9 deaths already.
That seems pretty self-evident. But they are still calling it a low risk situation and as much as we are prone to hyperbole and panic, we really should try to temper that. Unless your >60 with a pre-existing debilitating condition and Chinese. Then, you should start shopping for a plot.
Quote:
2% of that is 180 million.....
No, it isn't. It's a little over 150 million. 7.53 x .02 = 0.1506.
Phew, I hope I fall into the 30 million who would have been overreported in the original number and not the 150 million human beings who would die in this extrapolation.
I figured the good sign was that the spread outside of China has been relatively limited, and given the incubation period you figure a massive outbreak would have happened already. But if there are a million Chinese infected (speculating on the way way off scenario), then loosening travel restrictions and getting everyone back to work could change that drastically in the next couple of weeks.
I figured the good sign was that the spread outside of China has been relatively limited, and given the incubation period you figure a massive outbreak would have happened already. But if there are a million Chinese infected (speculating on the way way off scenario), then loosening travel restrictions and getting everyone back to work could change that drastically in the next couple of weeks.
What concerns me is as I have kept an eye on this graph over these past couple of weeks, the amount of infections in pretty rich countries like Germany, Great Britain, France, and Australia the number of cases has grown significantly. Germany and Great Britain have risen quite quickly in a weeks time.
India has 3 cases and I am almost positive it’s going to get out of control there as they can barely handle swine flu when it outbreaks there.
Most concerning is Russia. I have a friend in China that has been giving me some reports. He works for a company that actually supplies medical masks. Russia just ordered a huge amount of masks from his company.
Russia is not exactly the most honest country either, so the 2 cases there could be under reported as well.
The traffic every time I leave my house, oh vey!
The numbers are still far worse.
The numbers are still far worse.
Well, there's money (trade) and people. They don't have enough of the former, but do have lots of the latter. So they dissemble.
Stay tuned. Have to wait, usually until early dinner time in the East to catch up on where things stand. Then go to WorldOmeter. Addicted to it myself. Worried, too. Kills well over 2% if you are in Hubei Province and about 14% of those who become seriously ill with it. And it spreads easily if you are a close contact, staying hidden in an ill person for a long time total incubation period for quarantine purposes is 14 dwhile that person -- not showing symptoms -- unknowingly helps the spreading.
This is why the Yokohama ship might actually be a good ting. All sorts of things to study and get clarity; how close is close, modes of transmission, etc.
Between the poor health of the population, and the insufficient health care services, I'm predicting a 5-10% death rate and > 50,000 dead when its all done.
Quote:
All true, but "close contact" means within six feet or in same room for "a prolonged period," whatever that is, and the incubation period may be longer (up to 24 days according to new study by Zhong Nan-Shan published on February 9 -- not peer reviewed).
This is why the Yokohama ship might actually be a good ting. All sorts of things to study and get clarity; how close is close, modes of transmission, etc.
Right. At last count 218 of just under 3,500 passengers and crew on the ship have it. "Although some . . . will be released early, the pool of those eligible for offshore quarantine is still quite narrow: guests 80 or older who have existing medical conditions or are stuck in cabins without windows or balconies." And this: “On the ship, infections are getting very dense. ... It now provides a favorable environment for the virus to spread and I think it's time for people to get off,” said Shigeru Omi, an infectious disease prevention expert. . . . NYT.
China culling the herd
China culling the herd
Quote:
It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.
China culling the herd
As of February 1, at least 12,000 people in the US had been killed by the flu. This past week a 24 year old student at a local college here was killed by the flu.
It’s flu related deaths. If you get the flu then die of sepsis from pneumonia what killed you?My job is selling equipment for acute kidney injury and hemodynamically unstable patients who suffer multi organ failure often as their bodies can not fight the infections they get when the flu weakens them.
It’s semantics but that’s why the flu shot is so important In The old and young as once sick and is such a weakened state they can’t fight things they normally can. But I guess my work experience and years On the job is no match for your google skills.
Quote:
In comment 14810823 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:
It weakens you so that your body can fight back. Many times from sepsis related issue. And again most vulnerable are old people w co-morbid issues. This is kit a deadly virus in comparatively.
China culling the herd
As of February 1, at least 12,000 people in the US had been killed by the flu. This past week a 24 year old student at a local college here was killed by the flu.
It’s flu related deaths. If you get the flu then die of sepsis from pneumonia what killed you?My job is selling equipment for acute kidney injury and hemodynamically unstable patients who suffer multi organ failure often as their bodies can not fight the infections they get when the flu weakens them.
It’s semantics but that’s why the flu shot is so important In The old and young as once sick and is such a weakened state they can’t fight things they normally can. But I guess my work experience and years On the job is no match for your google skills.
Well, I won't argue that flu does weaken you and that there aren't added complications resulting from the flu that do include bacterial pneumonia. However, the flu itself is destructive to airways and the immune response to the virus also is destructive airways and both of those can directly cause death.
But I would argue that not only are my google skills superb, but I'll match my work (and other) experience against yours in this area.
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China
Based on these numbers, death rate at 2.2%.
The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.
I guess most of them are in China, right?
Quote:
67,101 confirmed cases
1,526 deaths
57,381 Currently Infected Patients
46,299 (81%) in Mild Condition
11,082 (19%) Serious or Critical
609 cases outside of China
Based on these numbers, death rate at 2.2%.
The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.
I guess most of them are in China, right?
Odds are. No real sign that anyone outside of there is in the serious/critical category. If in it, of course, real jeopardy ensues. But a couple of people outside of China have died so one might think they must have gone to "critical" before that happened, reported or not.
Quote:
. . .
Based on these numbers, death rate at 2.2%.
The 11K+ that is in the critical/serious bucket, however, could pump the number up substantially if they pass.
I guess most of them are in China, right?
I misinformed you above: some 29 patients outside of China are in serious/critical condition. Death rate of those admitted to the hospital: "A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time."