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What's wrong with being aggressive in FA?

giantstock : 2/16/2020 11:30 am
The usual answer is -- "You can't build your team through FA."

But if you focus on 4 position players -- and with what DG has done in the draft along with pickups and a few of the older players and a certain expectation for this year's draft-- then how would being aggressive and getting 4 good players in FA be considered "building through FA?"

IMO there has been way too much acceptance of lousy football. How about trying to win football games instead of being okay with a piece-of-crap team?

How would this look? Take up Solder's offer for a pay cut. Cut Ogeltree, Ellison, Martin and Bethea. Maybe Pulley too.

We know DG loves LW - for talking points they sign LW, a premiere pass rushing OLB (better than Golden), Connor McGovern and Littleton.

Come draft - you trade down very little but get the best LT in the draft and move Solder to RT. After that - you can primarily do BPA and the 2nd rd pick should be a starter or for example a good WR that will eventually start next year while being very good this year etc.

***This then becomes a team that should be able to stop the run, rush the passer, and possibly have a chance to run the football while potentially giving Jones more time/ and protection as well.
Who said we cannot be aggressive in FA?  
robbieballs2003 : 2/16/2020 11:31 am : link
The problem is giving out long term, big contracts that hurt us. Just be smart and aggressive.
Possibly already have an ER who is as good as, or better than Golden  
Bob in Newburgh : 2/16/2020 11:51 am : link
His name is Lorenzo Carter, and I can imagine what real chance he was given to be the primary ER once Golden was signed in FA.
'His name is Lorenzo Carter'  
Torrag : 2/16/2020 11:56 am : link
Man that's a lot of faith in leaving a critical position in the hands of a player, albeit young, that has really struggled and has shown little to no natural pass rush ability.
RE: 'His name is Lorenzo Carter'  
Big Blue '56 : 2/16/2020 12:00 pm : link
In comment 14812078 Torrag said:
Quote:
Man that's a lot of faith in leaving a critical position in the hands of a player, albeit young, that has really struggled and has shown little to no natural pass rush ability.


I pretty much have to discount the last D regime headed by the very disappointing (to me, as I had extremely high hopes) Bettcher. Let’s see what’s in store for him and other youngins’ with the new staff
It all depends  
mavric : 2/16/2020 12:04 pm : link
Getting into a bidding war over a player can cause you to overpay and commit to a longer-term contract which can cause huge problems down the road handcuffing the team because of salary cap hell. Also, one can't rely on past performance on the player's previous team to always translate to a new scheme on his new team. Tons of risk here.

On the other hand, if you know exactly what specific players can and will push you over the top to make you a Superbowl contender, then it's foolish not to be aggressive.

In the end, it's a little like the draft in that it's a crapshoot

'see what’s in store for him and other youngins’ with the new staff'  
Torrag : 2/16/2020 12:09 pm : link
I absolutely killed the last coaching staff on player development. I just don't see that critical first step explosion or 'bend' of a pass rusher. I'd honestly like to try him at ILB as I like his strength and length to make tackles.
Has really struggled?  
Bob in Newburgh : 2/16/2020 12:09 pm : link
Was not the savior on the amateur hour defense we trotted out under the fearless leader every week.

But in this context, singling him out as really struggled is a reach.

It is highly unlikely you can fill all the holes, so you have choose to skimp in areas where you might already have an answer.
'singling him out as really struggled is a reach'  
Torrag : 2/16/2020 12:15 pm : link
Sorry but you're wrong. He's had two season with two coaching staffs and hasn't produced squat. He can be singled out for his poor performance as every player can. It may be a case of being in the wrong position to begin with. Competition is a good thing and we need more pass rush options. But either way leaving a critical pass rushing job in his hands without a hedge is a bad idea.
Just because you don’t, doesn’t mean you can’t  
V.I.G. : 2/16/2020 12:26 pm : link
Meaning - I think that rule of thumb is a bit causal. Meaning:
if you have to build your team through free agency
... then your drafts probably underperformed
... which means you’re pressing
... and overpaying
... when the real problem is your drafts
... so you may have a quick benefit
... but you only prolong the problem.

If your drafts are good then spending up for guys like Kareem, plaxico, pierce makes sense.
...  
christian : 2/16/2020 12:38 pm : link
The Giants have some interesting financial decisions to make in the coming 2 years. Barkley almost certainly will not play out his rookie deal without an extension after this year. Both Peppers and Engram have 5th year options to contemplate.

What the Giants don't have are many other young players on the brink of free agency, and that helps open the possibility to acquire young veterans ready for a big 2nd contract.

There's nothing wrong paying really good, young veterans a lot of money. It's when you pay just good or a little older players a lot of money that hurts.
Poor free agent signings, especially ones that strap the cap  
LBH15 : 2/16/2020 1:01 pm : link
too much in future years, can hurt a team as much as missing with 1st round picks in the draft.

And unfortunately, the Giants are an organization with a GM that has missed badly in free agency.



'Barkley almost certainly will not play out his rookie deal'  
Torrag : 2/16/2020 1:49 pm : link
I'm not sure what you base this on in today's game. Almost all 1st round draft picks rookies play out their deal at least until the fifth year option is invoked.

Can you cite me some examples in recent years that didn't?
RE: 'Barkley almost certainly will not play out his rookie deal'  
Big Blue '56 : 2/16/2020 2:10 pm : link
In comment 14812124 Torrag said:
Quote:
I'm not sure what you base this on in today's game. Almost all 1st round draft picks rookies play out their deal at least until the fifth year option is invoked.

Can you cite me some examples in recent years that didn't?


Zeke?
It could work but you have to get very  
ron mexico : 2/16/2020 2:27 pm : link
Lucky both in terms of player heath and coaching ability to maximize their talents. It’s a very risky strategy
RE: Who said we cannot be aggressive in FA?  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 2:28 pm : link
In comment 14812058 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
The problem is giving out long term, big contracts that hurt us. Just be smart and aggressive.


How are you going to get an elite pass rusher without giving up a big long-term contract?

Connor McGovern and Lilleton are going to want long-term contracts.

If you don';t pay for these guys for example-- how are you going to get a pass rusher next year? Anyone coming out that is real good is going to get a long term contract, isn't he? Unless you want to settle for someone mediocre and "hope" they perform?

What about center? Gmen have no center. You want someone young like McGovern? He is going to want a long term contract. Or are you going to keep getting the cheap guys such as last year's RT Remmers.

If you don't pay long-term contracts then the team is going to stink yet again this year. That's a problem of accepting losing.
RE: 'Barkley almost certainly will not play out his rookie deal'  
ron mexico : 2/16/2020 2:29 pm : link
In comment 14812124 Torrag said:
Quote:
I'm not sure what you base this on in today's game. Almost all 1st round draft picks rookies play out their deal at least until the fifth year option is invoked.

Can you cite me some examples in recent years that didn't?


There is a growing trend to sign guys early.

In addition to Zeke, I believe Goff got extended early. Maybe went too. I posted about it a few month ago and had more examples but can’t remember them now. Not a widespread practice but not unheard of.
RE: It could work but you have to get very  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 2:41 pm : link
In comment 14812131 ron mexico said:
Quote:
Lucky both in terms of player heath and coaching ability to maximize their talents. It’s a very risky strategy


How do you think they'll be next year without aggressively going after Free Agents?

On offense they lost one tackle and one center. Their other LT stinks. ANd we know the three most important OLINE positions are Tackles and center.

ANd on defense we lost the most important position on defense which is a pass rusher. And how risky is it to keep Ogeltree?

And I'm just acknowledging DG is going after LW. Still need the pass rusher and ILB.

ISN't it more of a risk to just sit on our butts and accept stinking?
RE: Just because you don’t, doesn’t mean you can’t  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 2:43 pm : link
In comment 14812097 V.I.G. said:
Quote:
Meaning - I think that rule of thumb is a bit causal. Meaning:
if you have to build your team through free agency
... then your drafts probably underperformed
... which means you’re pressing
... and overpaying
... when the real problem is your drafts
... so you may have a quick benefit
... but you only prolong the problem.

If your drafts are good then spending up for guys like Kareem, plaxico, pierce makes sense.


But getting 4 players doesn't mean you are building your team through Free Agency, does it?
It is absolutely part of the reason why  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 2/16/2020 2:44 pm : link
we got into the situation we are in right now.

We overspent on 3 players for 1 playoff run and then the wheels fell off.

We got away with it the Plax/McKenzie off season because there was no rookie cap at the time. So instead of overspending on FA and an overpriced 1dst rounder, we spent what we would have spent on a 1st rounder and plus some more to grab those 2 players.

It doesn't work to well with the Rookie Cap in place. It is better to go for 2nd tier players.

DG better not overspend in FA this year. He's feeling the heat and it's easy to try to do that to save your job, but its going to hurt.

We need to go back to the days where we took chances on good players coming off of injuries that took better deals, and carried a little bit of risk.
RE: Possibly already have an ER who is as good as, or better than Golden  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 2:51 pm : link
In comment 14812074 Bob in Newburgh said:
Quote:
His name is Lorenzo Carter, and I can imagine what real chance he was given to be the primary ER once Golden was signed in FA.


Is this a joke???
Did I miss something?  
Milton : 2/16/2020 2:53 pm : link
Quote:
How would this look? Take up Solder's offer for a pay cut.
When did Solder offer to take a pay cut?
RE: It all depends  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 3:04 pm : link
In comment 14812086 mavric said:
Quote:
Getting into a bidding war over a player can cause you to overpay and commit to a longer-term contract which can cause huge problems down the road handcuffing the team because of salary cap hell. Also, one can't rely on past performance on the player's previous team to always translate to a new scheme on his new team. Tons of risk here.

On the other hand, if you know exactly what specific players can and will push you over the top to make you a Superbowl contender, then it's foolish not to be aggressive.

In the end, it's a little like the draft in that it's a crapshoot


So it's a crapshoot to go after free agents because you can't trust them. Plus it's a crapshoot in the draft.

So just give up and throw darts? How can you ever know you are super bowl contender with an attitude that "you don't know what you're going to get?" Those Free Agents have been in the league a while. Why are they a crapshoot vs other non-FA players? And if they are equal then how do you know you have a Super Bowl contender if it is all such a crapshoot? And player's can't learn new schemes? And scouts are worthless to determine if player's fit? What's the point of having scouts then?

This is what I am talking about. Not personal. But fans such as yourself have accepted losing. After all to paraphrase how you answered "Oh well it's all a crapshoot anyways."

How about having competent scouts knowing what they are doing and making more right moves than just sitting on their butts?

The Giants need a pass rusher.
The Giants need an ILB.
The Giants need a center.
The Giants need a new RT
The Giants LT stinks.
The giants CB and safety positions are questionable.
The giants have a concern over SS's and EE's health.

SO just sit on our butts again afraid of risk and just watch us suck yet again?

The goal is not to build  
.McL. : 2/16/2020 3:27 pm : link
a playoff team for 1 season in 2020, and then be hamstrung the next 3 returning to the type of miserable performance we have had for the past 3 years.

The goal is to build a consistent winner that has a shot at the SB every year. Overpaying in FA is not conducive to long term success. We should spend money in FA, but spend it smart. No more Solders, Betheas, Stewarts, Omamehs, etc. For that matter no more Harrisons or Vernons either. More Goldens...
RE: It is absolutely part of the reason why  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 3:46 pm : link
In comment 14812141 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
we got into the situation we are in right now.

We got into the situation because we drafted poorly and didn't choose FA's well.

Many posters on here have claimed DG has nailed the draft. ANd secondly he had nothing to work with when he 1st came in. SO now he has drafted two years there is talent -- so this is not anything like Reeese's era when he he did nothing of vale after that FA class. We have supporting players for more than juts 1 year

We have all this good youth supposedly. SO let's stop accepting failure because of what has happened in the past. Too many Giants fans have been comfortable with losing and just waiting and hoping something good might happen.

Without being agressive we are goign to suck again next year. Thsi accpetance has to stop. Get a pass riusher, get an ILB, get a cneter. They better pick up soem good free agents or just suck yet again.

RE: The goal is not to build  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 3:57 pm : link
In comment 14812162 .McL. said:
Quote:
a playoff team for 1 season in 2020, and then be hamstrung the next 3 returning to the type of miserable performance we have had for the past 3 years.

The goal is to build a consistent winner that has a shot at the SB every year. Overpaying in FA is not conducive to long term success. We should spend money in FA, but spend it smart. No more Solders, Betheas, Stewarts, Omamehs, etc. For that matter no more Harrisons or Vernons either. More Goldens...



If you get 4 young free agents -- how is that hurting your long term? Fro example, how is it McGovern and Littleton won't help other than 1 year? ANd even LW -- she is 25/26.
Nothing  
WillVAB : 2/16/2020 4:14 pm : link
The Giants can be aggressive in FA as long as they’re getting quality players at impact positions of need.

Early indications suggest there will be a few high quality players available in FA. There’s nothing wrong with making moves to acquire these players. It becomes problematic when you blow top dollar on average players because that’s the best available (Vernon, Solder).

The Giants should be aggressive in FA, they just have to focus on the right players. Don’t blow money just because you have it.

The cap situation moving forward looks really good. Not just for 20 but 21 as well. The key will be paying the right guys in FA and good drafting.
RE: Nothing  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 4:39 pm : link
In comment 14812183 WillVAB said:
Quote:
The Giants can be aggressive in FA as long as they’re getting quality players at impact positions of need.

Early indications suggest there will be a few high quality players available in FA. There’s nothing wrong with making moves to acquire these players. It becomes problematic when you blow top dollar on average players because that’s the best available (Vernon, Solder).

The Giants should be aggressive in FA, they just have to focus on the right players. Don’t blow money just because you have it.

The cap situation moving forward looks really good. Not just for 20 but 21 as well. The key will be paying the right guys in FA and good drafting.


+1(0000000000000000000000000000)
A lot of teams have cap space  
GiantsFan84 : 2/16/2020 5:37 pm : link
The guys that people want are going to be severely overpaid. Conklin is going to get way more than he’s worth.

They are better off signing guys who are cut. Let Williams walk and golden as well. Hopefully you get 2 third round comps next year. That with whatever you get with trading down this year should be enough to work with.

At some point players drafted need to play well. Baker, carter, hill, Hernandez, love, Ballantine.
I hope free agency brings a couple of high end vets  
Rjanyg : 2/16/2020 5:40 pm : link
Like Ngakoue and McGovern. We can afford a top Center and a top pass rusher, in fact I would argue we CAN’T afford to not get quality players in these positions. We have very good DT’s and many young DB’s. Lots if free agent pass rushers and Yannick is the youngest and most consistent ER available.

McGovern is one of the best OL available and we have sucked at the center position since OHara was here.

It’s time to invest in these 2 players.
RE: Possibly already have an ER who is as good as, or better than Golden  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 2/16/2020 6:05 pm : link
In comment 14812074 Bob in Newburgh said:
Quote:
His name is Lorenzo Carter, and I can imagine what real chance he was given to be the primary ER once Golden was signed in FA.


I'm not seeing what you're seeing in that guy. I've seen nothing that even gives the slightest hint that Carter has the edge quickness to be an edge rusher at this level.
RE: RE: Just because you don’t, doesn’t mean you can’t  
V.I.G. : 2/16/2020 6:19 pm : link
In comment 14812140 giantstock said:
Quote:

But getting 4 players doesn't mean you are building your team through Free Agency, does it?

Not if your drafts are good.
giantstock  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 2/16/2020 6:24 pm : link
the Giants have been one of the most aggressive teams in free agency for almost a decade now.
*Cough* Redskins *Cough*  
Gmen703 : 2/16/2020 6:30 pm : link
.
RE: A lot of teams have cap space  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 6:32 pm : link
In comment 14812225 GiantsFan84 said:
Quote:
The guys that people want are going to be severely overpaid. Conklin is going to get way more than he’s worth.

They are better off signing guys who are cut. Let Williams walk and golden as well. Hopefully you get 2 third round comps next year. That with whatever you get with trading down this year should be enough to work with.

At some point players drafted need to play well. Baker, carter, hill, Hernandez, love, Ballantine.


Are you saying DG's drafts have been awful? He's had 2 years of drafting and we'll have high picks in 1st 2 rounds this year. SO what you're saying is he sucks and should have been fired and we're going to be loser regardless what we do this year and next?

So you can't rely on any of his draft picks other than 2 or 3 players?
RE: giantstock  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 6:39 pm : link
In comment 14812243 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
the Giants have been one of the most aggressive teams in free agency for almost a decade now.


Eric. Read this thread. There are posters on here saying we shouldn't be aggressive. So you agree with me that we should or do you disagree?

Further-- haven't we heard two years ago DG was cash-strapped and couldn't be aggressive in his 1st year? (Which I disagreed with).

Some of the posts - people don't want us to be aggressive. I'm just offering imo they should be. Go after aggressively a pass rusher, an iLB, and a center. OFC I think they will also go after LW. AM I wrong on any of this in your opinion?

RE: 'Barkley almost certainly will not play out his rookie deal'  
christian : 2/16/2020 7:19 pm : link
In comment 14812124 Torrag said:
Quote:
I'm not sure what you base this on in today's game. Almost all 1st round draft picks rookies play out their deal at least until the fifth year option is invoked.

Can you cite me some examples in recent years that didn't?


Todd Gurley, Zeke Elliot, David Johnson, and Devonta Freeman are all recent 1st round running backs who were extended with richer contracts after their third year.

Premium top end running backs basically don't play out their rookie contracts. Barkley won't either.
RE: A lot of teams have cap space  
WillVAB : 2/16/2020 7:21 pm : link
In comment 14812225 GiantsFan84 said:
Quote:
The guys that people want are going to be severely overpaid. Conklin is going to get way more than he’s worth.

They are better off signing guys who are cut. Let Williams walk and golden as well. Hopefully you get 2 third round comps next year. That with whatever you get with trading down this year should be enough to work with.

At some point players drafted need to play well. Baker, carter, hill, Hernandez, love, Ballantine.


With this strategy the Giants may finally be good heading into the 2025 season. That is if DG has awesome drafts for the next 5 years.

But that also assumes the Giants keep their good drafted players, who will ultimately be overpaid by your standards. If not, they’ll just spin their wheels replacing departed players in the draft and never really building a squad.

“Overpaying” for high quality players in FA isn’t a bad thing. It can quickly turn a weakness into a strength. The issue is paying top dollar for under performers. It’s management’s job to make sure they’re targeting the right players to pay.

Dumpster diving in FA can be just as problematic as a top dollar deal to a big name FA who doesn’t work out. The bargain bin route can lead to 5 or 6 overpaid guys (at lower cap figures) that can be hard to cut until a few years into the deal.
RE: RE: It is absolutely part of the reason why  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 2/16/2020 8:16 pm : link
In comment 14812172 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 14812141 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


we got into the situation we are in right now.



We got into the situation because we drafted poorly and didn't choose FA's well.

Many posters on here have claimed DG has nailed the draft. ANd secondly he had nothing to work with when he 1st came in. SO now he has drafted two years there is talent -- so this is not anything like Reeese's era when he he did nothing of vale after that FA class. We have supporting players for more than juts 1 year

We have all this good youth supposedly. SO let's stop accepting failure because of what has happened in the past. Too many Giants fans have been comfortable with losing and just waiting and hoping something good might happen.

Without being agressive we are goign to suck again next year. Thsi accpetance has to stop. Get a pass riusher, get an ILB, get a cneter. They better pick up soem good free agents or just suck yet again.


IF you don't think that our overspending in FA has put us into this hole we are currently in, this must have been you the past few years:



Seriously, look at the Solder contract, we made him the highest paid Left Tackle in the league and he is absolutely brutal.

You can still get talent in FA, but most teams should only go after the big Free Agents when they are a piece away, not filling one hole and creating others at the same time.

We do not need to get back into a cap mess by over paying for a handful of top FA. We need to get mid tier pieces that play above their pay grade, which is easier said then done.
RE: RE: A lot of teams have cap space  
GiantsFan84 : 2/16/2020 8:24 pm : link
In comment 14812259 WillVAB said:
Quote:
In comment 14812225 GiantsFan84 said:


Quote:


The guys that people want are going to be severely overpaid. Conklin is going to get way more than he’s worth.

They are better off signing guys who are cut. Let Williams walk and golden as well. Hopefully you get 2 third round comps next year. That with whatever you get with trading down this year should be enough to work with.

At some point players drafted need to play well. Baker, carter, hill, Hernandez, love, Ballantine.





With this strategy the Giants may finally be good heading into the 2025 season. That is if DG has awesome drafts for the next 5 years.

But that also assumes the Giants keep their good drafted players, who will ultimately be overpaid by your standards. If not, they’ll just spin their wheels replacing departed players in the draft and never really building a squad.

“Overpaying” for high quality players in FA isn’t a bad thing. It can quickly turn a weakness into a strength. The issue is paying top dollar for under performers. It’s management’s job to make sure they’re targeting the right players to pay.

Dumpster diving in FA can be just as problematic as a top dollar deal to a big name FA who doesn’t work out. The bargain bin route can lead to 5 or 6 overpaid guys (at lower cap figures) that can be hard to cut until a few years into the deal.


Actually the goal is to draft good players (foreign concept for the giants) and then resign them before they hit free agency to get a bit of a discount when you sign them

And if you look at the good teams that’s how they do it
RE: RE: A lot of teams have cap space  
GiantsFan84 : 2/16/2020 8:39 pm : link
In comment 14812259 WillVAB said:
Quote:
In comment 14812225 GiantsFan84 said:


Quote:


The guys that people want are going to be severely overpaid. Conklin is going to get way more than he’s worth.

They are better off signing guys who are cut. Let Williams walk and golden as well. Hopefully you get 2 third round comps next year. That with whatever you get with trading down this year should be enough to work with.

At some point players drafted need to play well. Baker, carter, hill, Hernandez, love, Ballantine.



With this strategy the Giants may finally be good heading into the 2025 season. That is if DG has awesome drafts for the next 5 years.

But that also assumes the Giants keep their good drafted players, who will ultimately be overpaid by your standards. If not, they’ll just spin their wheels replacing departed players in the draft and never really building a squad.

“Overpaying” for high quality players in FA isn’t a bad thing. It can quickly turn a weakness into a strength. The issue is paying top dollar for under performers. It’s management’s job to make sure they’re targeting the right players to pay.

Dumpster diving in FA can be just as problematic as a top dollar deal to a big name FA who doesn’t work out. The bargain bin route can lead to 5 or 6 overpaid guys (at lower cap figures) that can be hard to cut until a few years into the deal.


Also signing guys who are cut is not always dumpster diving.
...  
christian : 2/16/2020 8:44 pm : link
A GM should never make a mistake of overpaying. You should never walk away saying “I overpaid, but I had to.”

You can overvalue a player, and it could turn out he either doesn’t reach the performance you expect. That happens, that’s general management. But a player should slot into a value. If you’re going to make the guy the highest paid at a position, you’ve got to have good reason to believe he will be really good.

There’s a spectrum of compensation. There aren’t just the highest paid, then bottom basement. Getting sucked into the fallacy there isn’t is asinine.
So from what I am reading in this thread  
Rjanyg : 2/16/2020 8:53 pm : link
We have cap space but should use it? Obviously no Giant fans want to spend money on a bad free agent signing, and I will admit that Gettleman has had me shaking my head a few times. Let’s face it though, the coaches had a say in who we brought in and that was part of the problem.

I think signing a few B and C level free agents is a good way to go, however, we need to get a top end young pass rusher like Ngakoue or maybe Judon. I wanted ZDarius Smith last year and he proved to be a great signing for Green Bay. I think Ngakoue can have a great effect on our entire defense. He is very young and very productive and is entering his prime. These are the kind of players you invest big money in.

McGovern is another young guy who has proven he can play at a high level and is just entering his prime. The center position is pivotal to overall line success. We have had line issues for way too long.

I believe while we will be looking for affordable players during free agency, I really believe Gettleman and Co. Will be looking for quality guys along both lines and will be willing to sign guys at the top of the market.

Cap future  
Simms : 2/16/2020 8:56 pm : link
Overpaying marginal talent is painful. We are better off creating a culture vs going down a rabbit hole time and time again.

Our front office etc needsnto do a better job of selecting budding talent with a good price tag vs painting us into another corner shortly thereafter.
Is it really overpaying if it’s market value?  
Saquads26 : 2/16/2020 8:57 pm : link
Good players get paid.
RE: ...  
WillVAB : 2/16/2020 9:31 pm : link
In comment 14812285 christian said:
Quote:
A GM should never make a mistake of overpaying. You should never walk away saying “I overpaid, but I had to.”

You can overvalue a player, and it could turn out he either doesn’t reach the performance you expect. That happens, that’s general management. But a player should slot into a value. If you’re going to make the guy the highest paid at a position, you’ve got to have good reason to believe he will be really good.

There’s a spectrum of compensation. There aren’t just the highest paid, then bottom basement. Getting sucked into the fallacy there isn’t is asinine.


Yea, there’s signings like Dwayne Harris, Ellison, Omameh, and Kareem Martin where the end result is arguably worse than one higher dollar signing that doesn’t work out or meet “value.”

Getting value in FA is more a function of luck than skill. Every team is looking for that cheap FA that’s super productive in season. This usually requires rolling the dice on a guy coming off an injury or an older player. Neither is attractive as an overall strategy of attack for FA this year.

The Giants will have close to 90 mil to spend in FA this year. Only spending if the player is pure value may give the bean counters a hard on, but it won’t get the Giants any closer to being a good team.
Good post  
Bill2 : 2/16/2020 10:00 pm : link
WillVAB

Captures the core point.
RE: RE: ...  
christian : 2/16/2020 10:02 pm : link
In comment 14812302 WillVAB said:
Quote:
In comment 14812285 christian said:


Quote:


A GM should never make a mistake of overpaying. You should never walk away saying “I overpaid, but I had to.”

You can overvalue a player, and it could turn out he either doesn’t reach the performance you expect. That happens, that’s general management. But a player should slot into a value. If you’re going to make the guy the highest paid at a position, you’ve got to have good reason to believe he will be really good.

There’s a spectrum of compensation. There aren’t just the highest paid, then bottom basement. Getting sucked into the fallacy there isn’t is asinine.



Yea, there’s signings like Dwayne Harris, Ellison, Omameh, and Kareem Martin where the end result is arguably worse than one higher dollar signing that doesn’t work out or meet “value.”

Getting value in FA is more a function of luck than skill. Every team is looking for that cheap FA that’s super productive in season. This usually requires rolling the dice on a guy coming off an injury or an older player. Neither is attractive as an overall strategy of attack for FA this year.

The Giants will have close to 90 mil to spend in FA this year. Only spending if the player is pure value may give the bean counters a hard on, but it won’t get the Giants any closer to being a good team.


You're conflating value with cheap. A great player can be valued at a very high, or record rate.

Value doesn't mean cheap at all. It means you have a system that rates the relative worth of players and only pay them at that worth.

Nate Solder isn't a better player because he's extremely expensive. Sterling Shepard isn't a bad player because he's paid fairly.

If there is a really good player available in UFA the Giants should pay him a lot of money. And then there is a spectrum of compensation from minimum salaries on up.

The 2017 Giants were top loaded with a handful of big contracts, how did that work out?
christian  
Bill2 : 2/16/2020 10:04 pm : link
Honestly, conflating is exactly the operative word.
RE: RE: RE: ...  
WillVAB : 2/16/2020 10:42 pm : link
In comment 14812312 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14812302 WillVAB said:


Quote:


In comment 14812285 christian said:


Quote:


A GM should never make a mistake of overpaying. You should never walk away saying “I overpaid, but I had to.”

You can overvalue a player, and it could turn out he either doesn’t reach the performance you expect. That happens, that’s general management. But a player should slot into a value. If you’re going to make the guy the highest paid at a position, you’ve got to have good reason to believe he will be really good.

There’s a spectrum of compensation. There aren’t just the highest paid, then bottom basement. Getting sucked into the fallacy there isn’t is asinine.



Yea, there’s signings like Dwayne Harris, Ellison, Omameh, and Kareem Martin where the end result is arguably worse than one higher dollar signing that doesn’t work out or meet “value.”

Getting value in FA is more a function of luck than skill. Every team is looking for that cheap FA that’s super productive in season. This usually requires rolling the dice on a guy coming off an injury or an older player. Neither is attractive as an overall strategy of attack for FA this year.

The Giants will have close to 90 mil to spend in FA this year. Only spending if the player is pure value may give the bean counters a hard on, but it won’t get the Giants any closer to being a good team.



You're conflating value with cheap. A great player can be valued at a very high, or record rate.

Value doesn't mean cheap at all. It means you have a system that rates the relative worth of players and only pay them at that worth.

Nate Solder isn't a better player because he's extremely expensive. Sterling Shepard isn't a bad player because he's paid fairly.

If there is a really good player available in UFA the Giants should pay him a lot of money. And then there is a spectrum of compensation from minimum salaries on up.

The 2017 Giants were top loaded with a handful of big contracts, how did that work out?


The 17 Giants were top loaded because they had endured nearly 10 years of shitty drafts. Value hunting in FA wouldn’t have made the team any better.

The draft is more important than anything else. I don’t believe anyone is arguing against that point, or at least shouldn’t be. That’s the opportunity to get value.

Not really following your FA points. If the 10th best RT in the league gets paid anything higher than 10th best salary, that’s bad value in the most literal sense. But everyone knows that’s not how it works in FA. The 10th best RT may end up being the richest RT. The 15th best QB will end up being paid top 5 or better. That’s just the nature of FA.

My point is that the Giants should be focusing on acquiring talented players at core positions even if the cost is high. They have the money to do so. The cap looks even better in 21. If they make Conklin the highest paid RT, so be it. His age and talent justify the cost. Similar logic applies to a few of the ER who may hit the market.

The Giants aren’t going to attract any talent by simply offering FMV. They’re going to have to overpay to some degree to sign the guys they want to sign.
...  
christian : 2/16/2020 11:26 pm : link
Again, you're assuming value must have some component of being cheap, and that's not true nor what I am saying.

I'm saying the Giants shouldn't spend over a reasonable value assigned to the position and the player.

A really good player at a high importantance position will be expensive, and the Giants should sign as many of those players as they can afford. If a guy is in the top tier at his position, pay him a lot. Pay him the most if that's what it takes.

What they shouldn't do is exceed the value of a player in their estimate. That's how you end up with Vernon, Jenkins, Solder etc.

Pass rusher, corner, and left tackle are probably 3 of the 4 most important positions on the field. Each of those guys were the best available player at that position at the time, unfortunately they just weren't actually tops at the position overall.

And that's how you get an average player on a huge contract.
RE: RE: RE: It is absolutely part of the reason why  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 11:35 pm : link
In comment 14812272 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
In comment 14812172 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 14812141 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


we got into the situation we are in right now.



We got into the situation because we drafted poorly and didn't choose FA's well.



IF you don't think that our overspending in FA has put us into this hole we are currently in, this must have been you the past few years:



Seriously, look at the Solder contract, we made him the highest paid Left Tackle in the league and he is absolutely brutal.

You can still get talent in FA, but most teams should only go after the big Free Agents when they are a piece away, not filling one hole and creating others at the same time.



If you think a lot of this about Nate Solder then I'm sure you are aware when posters such as yourself remain blind to the fact that there are good FA's out there than can be had. Solder has gotten you sacred of your own shadow and you want to blame our sucking on him alone? Huh????!!!!!! Instead I liken you my friend to the germans that surrounded Bastogne and gave General McAuliffe a surrender ultimatum. And ofc you know what he said, right? He said "NUTS."

Your using the stupidity of signing an old LT as some reason why we suck now is just NUTS. You've accepted losing and scared to move an inch in fear of making another mistake. That's NUTS.

What got the GMEN in the shitter was mostly poor drafting and lately incompetence from our current GM along with lousy coaching. Solder was a stupid move- I said it right from the start. It lacked common sense. But getting a high quality young center and a young pass rusher for example does not lack common sense.

People can't have it both ways here- saying DG has been doing okay then claim we shouldn't pick up 4 players because we're not good enough or because it's too risky. Instead of sitting on one's ass - good teams have a smart GM wiht smart talent evaluators that should be able to find good players that are needed for this team.

If they can't handle it-- they don't belong in their current position.

Are you trying to say this team can't be at least"okay" if they found in FA a good young center, a good young edge rusher and a good inside linebacker along with signing LW and doing well in the draft with at least the 1st two picks?

What you're saying is: DG IS INCAPABLE OF FINDING 4 GOOD FOOTBALL PLAYERS AT LT, DLINE, ILB AND CENTER.
...  
christian : 2/16/2020 11:45 pm : link
And my point from the beginning is if your assement determines a player is worth it, it's not overpaying. It's paying.

What is ridiculous is paying guys top end salaries because; he's stabilizing, there was no alternative, he's meant a lot to the franchise, or the GM felt cornered by the owner.

If asked why did you sign player X to a top end salary, the general manager better be able to say he's one of the very best at his position and we expect him to be that as a Giant.
RE: ...  
giantstock : 2/16/2020 11:49 pm : link
In comment 14812333 christian said:
Quote:
Again, you're assuming value must have some component of being cheap, and that's not true nor what I am saying.

I'm saying the Giants shouldn't spend over a reasonable value assigned to the position and the player.

A really good player at a high importantance position will be expensive, and the Giants should sign as many of those players as they can afford. If a guy is in the top tier at his position, pay him a lot. Pay him the most if that's what it takes.

What they shouldn't do is exceed the value of a player in their estimate. That's how you end up with Vernon, Jenkins, Solder etc.

Pass rusher, corner, and left tackle are probably 3 of the 4 most important positions on the field. Each of those guys were the best available player at that position at the time, unfortunately they just weren't actually tops at the position overall.

And that's how you get an average player on a huge contract.


You seem to keep preaching "value" as if you know -- what's the top value for these guys in your opinion?

Clowney
Chris Jones
Ngakoue
Fowler
Dupree
Juodon
Lwilliams
Littleton
McGovern
RE: RE: ...  
christian : 2/17/2020 12:24 am : link
In comment 14812336 giantstock said:
Quote:
You seem to keep preaching "value" as if you know -- what's the top value for these guys in your opinion?

Clowney
Chris Jones
Ngakoue
Fowler
Dupree
Juodon
Lwilliams
Littleton
McGovern


I can answer this in a more honest way -- if I'm a GM and am contemplating paying a player a top 5 guaranteed payout at a position my criteria would be:

- Has he finished 5 or fewer years
- Is he free of a major structural injury
- Can he disrupt a game plan on his own
- Would the general consensus among other GMs likely be he's a top 10 player at the position
- Can my staff articulate what they can do different with him that they can't with the alternative
RE: RE: 'Barkley almost certainly will not play out his rookie deal'  
sb from NYT Forum : 2/17/2020 7:44 am : link
In comment 14812257 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14812124 Torrag said:


Quote:


I'm not sure what you base this on in today's game. Almost all 1st round draft picks rookies play out their deal at least until the fifth year option is invoked.

Can you cite me some examples in recent years that didn't?



Todd Gurley, Zeke Elliot, David Johnson, and Devonta Freeman are all recent 1st round running backs who were extended with richer contracts after their third year.

Premium top end running backs basically don't play out their rookie contracts. Barkley won't either.


...except David Johnson was a 3rd rounder and Devonta Freeman was a 4th rounder.
There's nothing wrong with being aggressive in free agency...  
Klaatu : 2/17/2020 7:54 am : link
If being aggressive means striking quickly to get the players they desire at reasonable costs, i.e., not paying A+ money to B+ players just because they can. Being overly aggressive can be a recipe for disaster.

Aggression alone won't win the day without a good plan in place, as well as the requisite contingencies. To continue your Bastogne metaphor, giantstock, it wasn't only McAuliffe's stubborn refusal to surrender that led to the eventual victory at Bastogne. It was Patton's foresight in predicting that the Germans would, against all odds, mount a winter offensive, his having a plan in place to counter it before he was even asked what could be done, and trusting that his troops would be able to execute the plan. In all likelihood, without Patton's forethought, the Germans would have taken Bastogne, because the "battered bastards" holding the line there were at the end of their collective ropes by the time his forces arrived. Foresight and planning won the battle, as well as aggression. Well, that and the weather clearing.

Anyway, I hope the Giants have a good plan drawn up for free agency when it begins next month. I hope they've identified where the holes are on the team, and where free agency gives them the best shot at filling those holes prior to the draft. They're not the only team that's going to have money to spend, so if they've identified two or three (or four) trouble spots, I hope they act quickly, but also judiciously.

I've already mentioned a number of players whom I think the Giants should attempt to sign, as well as some I think they should steer clear of, in numerous posts, so I'm not going to rehash that. Everyone has their favorites, and no one really knows who the Giants covet, although there's been a ton of speculation.

Honestly, I don't have much faith in Dave Gettleman. I think his track record so far has been pretty poor with regard to free agency. Now, I hope that Joe Judge (and his staff) can have a positive influence on Gettleman. That they can do for him what Patton did for Eisenhower, Bradley, Montgomery, and the rest of the Allied General Staff who were caught flat-footed in the winter of '44.

But that remains to be seen.
The Athletic’s Dan Dugan  
johnnyb : 2/17/2020 8:05 am : link
Wrote an excellent article on how the Giants should approach free agency going forward. Since they have cap space, Dugan reasons, the Giants should front load guaranteed money rather than pay signing bonuses which are prorated through the life of the contract. This is where dead cap money is created. By avoiding these signing bonuses the team has the flexibility to move on from a mistake after two years with little or no cap consequences. This can only be done when a team has a lot of room under the cap. So, for me, it is not a matter of who we sign, but rather avoiding a crippling contract ( Solder) that creates dead money. Picking the right free agent is half the battle. Structuring the contract to provide flexibility in the future is the other half of the battle. DG should read Dugan’s article.
RE: RE: 'Barkley almost certainly will not play out his rookie deal'  
giants#1 : 2/17/2020 8:13 am : link
In comment 14812257 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 14812124 Torrag said:


Quote:


I'm not sure what you base this on in today's game. Almost all 1st round draft picks rookies play out their deal at least until the fifth year option is invoked.

Can you cite me some examples in recent years that didn't?



Todd Gurley, Zeke Elliot, David Johnson, and Devonta Freeman are all recent 1st round running backs who were extended with richer contracts after their third year.

Premium top end running backs basically don't play out their rookie contracts. Barkley won't either.


David Johnson was a 3rd round pick. Freeman was a 4th round pick.
RE: RE: giantstock  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 2/17/2020 8:33 am : link
In comment 14812248 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 14812243 Eric from BBI said:


Quote:


the Giants have been one of the most aggressive teams in free agency for almost a decade now.



Eric. Read this thread. There are posters on here saying we shouldn't be aggressive. So you agree with me that we should or do you disagree?

Further-- haven't we heard two years ago DG was cash-strapped and couldn't be aggressive in his 1st year? (Which I disagreed with).

Some of the posts - people don't want us to be aggressive. I'm just offering imo they should be. Go after aggressively a pass rusher, an iLB, and a center. OFC I think they will also go after LW. AM I wrong on any of this in your opinion?


"Aggressive" like Nate Solder "aggressive"? Or Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon, etc.?

I'm more interested in making good decisions.

But history has pretty much shown that you build teams through the draft rather than free agency.
RE: RE: RE: 'Barkley almost certainly will not play out his rookie deal'  
christian : 2/17/2020 9:02 am : link
In comment 14812362 giants#1 said:
Quote:
David Johnson was a 3rd round pick. Freeman was a 4th round pick.


Correct, my mistake.

Premium running backs despite round drafted have been extended after their third year.

RE:  
Klaatu : 2/17/2020 9:17 am : link
In comment 14812369 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:

"Aggressive" like Nate Solder "aggressive"? Or Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon, etc.?

I'm more interested in making good decisions.

But history has pretty much shown that you build teams through the draft rather than free agency.


Successfully building through the draft should not preclude successfully augmenting with free agency if, as you said, you make good decisions (and I'll assume you meant good decisions re both).

For a team like the Giants that needs starters at a number of key positions, as well as players to develop along with better quality depth across the board, free agency provides an opportunity to put a couple of starters in place prior to the draft, reducing the chances of "shopping hungry" (hat tip, JonC) during the draft.

Using Center as an example, the Giants need one...badly. But there's no guarantee that they'll be able to draft a prospect capable of starting right away. So, while I do hope they can draft a kid worth developing, I'd also like to see them sign one in free agency, even if he's just a "placeholder" for a year or two.

Personally, I'd rather not see them try and sign someone like Connor McGovern (whom I don't see leaving Denver no matter what he's offered, for a variety of reasons). I'd rather see them sign Ted Karras, who can play C and RG, and who filled in admirably as a starter for New England, and could most likely be had for a two-year deal that won't break the bank. He's not Alex Mack, but he's a big step up from Halapio and Pulley, and he could secure the position while we develop our own homegrown talent.
RE: RE: RE: giantstock  
Rjanyg : 2/17/2020 9:25 am : link
In comment 14812369 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
In comment 14812248 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 14812243 Eric from BBI said:


Quote:


the Giants have been one of the most aggressive teams in free agency for almost a decade now.



Eric. Read this thread. There are posters on here saying we shouldn't be aggressive. So you agree with me that we should or do you disagree?

Further-- haven't we heard two years ago DG was cash-strapped and couldn't be aggressive in his 1st year? (Which I disagreed with).

Some of the posts - people don't want us to be aggressive. I'm just offering imo they should be. Go after aggressively a pass rusher, an iLB, and a center. OFC I think they will also go after LW. AM I wrong on any of this in your opinion?




"Aggressive" like Nate Solder "aggressive"? Or Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon, etc.?

I'm more interested in making good decisions.

But history has pretty much shown that you build teams through the draft rather than free agency.


Eric, yes build through the draft. Supplement through free agency.

Free agency has tiers and some teams will be aggressive and set the market. The market is set by supply and demand. There are many free agent Edge players and few good OT. The draft is the opposite. So, since we missed out on Chase Young by beating the Redskins, conventional wisdom would say to go buy a really good pass rusher and draft an OT with our first round pick.

I think we all can argue about value until the cows come home. Get value in the draft. Get value with free agent signings. Supply and demand sets the price. The question is what players best fit the Giants systems and culture and are we willing to pay and or draft that player with conviction.

Yannick Ngakoue will be the prize of FA ER. Conklin seems to be the best OT. Connor McGovern the best Center. Nobody will argue that they couldn’t help our team. What it will cost will always be the issue.
there are different types of aggression  
MM_in_NYC : 2/17/2020 9:28 am : link
there is unrestrained aggression and there is targeted aggression.

in nfl fa unrestrained aggression is seeking to get the best of the players that happens to be available in that period and paying them the most, usually comparable to the top players in their positions.

targeted aggression is based on analyzing the players available and ruthlessly separating the player from the particular fa class and weighing his value in the context of the entire league - and then attacking those and only those players that come out on the positive end of that equation.

we need targeted aggression, not unrestrained aggression.
I think if the FAs you target  
Rudy5757 : 2/17/2020 9:56 am : link
are the right age 25-27 you can over pay for those guys a little because in most cases you will get a good player for the life of the contract and overpaying now may be reasonable in the future as every year players get the Highest contract ever. When we went into FA a few years ago we overpaid for a few guys that started to break down over the years. I think Jackrabbit was a good deal, it was a reasonable signing who at the time we overpaid a little.

With Lawrence Williams I think the Giants can play it casual with him. He is a good player but not a top player. I would let him hit FA and see what the market is for him out there and the value he is to the Giants. We might be able to get him cheaper that what we would have offered. I dont see teams rolling out the brinks truck for him. If you lose him its not that big of a loss since we have so many DT/DEs on the roster and really need more edge guys. I would say he is going to get around $12M a year. I thought more earlier but I think $12M is the number.

I would go aggressive at the Edge rushers. There doesnt seem to be one for the value at 4 and we need at least one going into the draft. I dont want Golden back as a starter. he is a pass rush specialist and is not a complete player. He would have the same production in a rotation. I also think Carter can be a similar player. I would overpay for Yannik Ngouke. He is still young and we can afford him now. i would leave the other side for Carter, Ximenez and draft picks or 2nd tier FAs, maybe like what we did with Golden.

I would target FA OT DJ Humphries at OT. He is young at 26 and is a good pass protector. Needs work on run blocking but I would rather have him than Conklin who is better at run blocking than pass blocking and will cost a lit more. I think you can get Humphries at a good price for OT and lock him down. That would give us flexibility in the draft.
I think the Giants..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 2/17/2020 9:58 am : link
first have to figure out who the fuck Lawrence Williams is before making any decisions.
No poor dumb bastard ever won a Super Bowl  
LBH15 : 2/17/2020 10:03 am : link
by overpaying for his players in free agency.

The way you win a Super Bowl is by making sure the other poor dumb bastard overpays for his.

RE: I think the Giants..  
Klaatu : 2/17/2020 10:08 am : link
In comment 14812423 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
first have to figure out who the fuck Lawrence Williams is before making any decisions.


It's 'Larry,' to his friends.



But I really can't bust Rudy's chops too much over this. I once wrote 'Josh Hartnett' instead of 'Josh Barnett' when reviewing a UFC PPV on another site. It took me a while to live that down.
Klaatu..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 2/17/2020 10:25 am : link
I might have been too harsh.

We might be keeping tabs on the Defensive End from Limestone College:

Quote:

LAWRENCE WILLIAMS:
2018: Made a pair of starts during junior season … played in seven games overall … registered 28 tackles, three tackles for loss, and four hurries … tallied three tackles at Gardner-Webb (9/1) … posted five tackles, including four solo tackles, and a tackle for loss at No. 13 West Georgia (9/8) … finished with six tackles, two hurries, and a tackle for loss at Tusculum (9/14) … chipped in five tackles and a quarterback hurry against No. 23 West Alabama (9/22) … matched a season-high with six tackles against Newberry (10/20) … recorded three solo tackles and a tackle for loss at Catawba (10/27).
I want Lenny back.  
Big Blue '56 : 2/17/2020 10:38 am : link
.
The myth of building thru the draft  
Colin@gbn : 2/17/2020 11:28 am : link
Morning guys: Just 66 days until the draft. I will disagree slightly with my good friend Eric et al and that while it sounds great to say one is going to build through the draft I just don't believe that you can still do it in the modern NFL. The numbers just don't add up. Fact is that all teams pretty much turn their rosters over ever 5 years or so. That means that just about every team is looking to bring in 45-50 new players over every 5 year period. At the same time, though, if a team gets 3 pretty good players out of a draft they are doing reasonably well. That means that over a 5-year cycle you'd be doing well to get 15 guys from the draft. The problem with the draft is that back when we grew up on football in the 1980s once you drafted a guy you had him for his career, but in this day and age with free agency
its going to cost you a boatload to resign any good picks you did make after 4-5 years. (As an aside note, I'd also disagree with the notion that you have to spend big in free agency because you don't draft well. Draft well and you are going to have to spend just as much to keep your draft picks. You spend in free agency 'cause you can!)

The draft is still critical (otherwise I'd be out of business) but not so much to build your team, but rather to get your key impact, core players. I am not a big fan of looking at just one team in one year, but the Chiefs were hardly built through the draft. They have only 2 draftees on a second contract) and only 5-6 starters on offense (and 2 of 5 on the OL) were drafted and just 3-4 of their 15-16 main rotational players on defense came in the draft. But the guys they did draft - Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Chris Jones and Fisher their LT - are for the most part their key players. Looked at another way they pretty much drafted their speed passing game and have kind of filled in the blanks the best they could everywhere else.
RE: The myth of building thru the draft  
WillVAB : 2/17/2020 1:25 pm : link
In comment 14812492 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:
Morning guys: Just 66 days until the draft. I will disagree slightly with my good friend Eric et al and that while it sounds great to say one is going to build through the draft I just don't believe that you can still do it in the modern NFL. The numbers just don't add up. Fact is that all teams pretty much turn their rosters over ever 5 years or so. That means that just about every team is looking to bring in 45-50 new players over every 5 year period. At the same time, though, if a team gets 3 pretty good players out of a draft they are doing reasonably well. That means that over a 5-year cycle you'd be doing well to get 15 guys from the draft. The problem with the draft is that back when we grew up on football in the 1980s once you drafted a guy you had him for his career, but in this day and age with free agency
its going to cost you a boatload to resign any good picks you did make after 4-5 years. (As an aside note, I'd also disagree with the notion that you have to spend big in free agency because you don't draft well. Draft well and you are going to have to spend just as much to keep your draft picks. You spend in free agency 'cause you can!)

The draft is still critical (otherwise I'd be out of business) but not so much to build your team, but rather to get your key impact, core players. I am not a big fan of looking at just one team in one year, but the Chiefs were hardly built through the draft. They have only 2 draftees on a second contract) and only 5-6 starters on offense (and 2 of 5 on the OL) were drafted and just 3-4 of their 15-16 main rotational players on defense came in the draft. But the guys they did draft - Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Chris Jones and Fisher their LT - are for the most part their key players. Looked at another way they pretty much drafted their speed passing game and have kind of filled in the blanks the best they could everywhere else.


You have to draft well to have a good roster. The teams with any sort of sustained success are the teams that were able to string together a few exceptional drafts. As the draft classes decline the teams decline.

RE: The Athletic�s Dan Dugan  
.McL. : 2/17/2020 5:36 pm : link
In comment 14812359 johnnyb said:
Quote:
Wrote an excellent article on how the Giants should approach free agency going forward. Since they have cap space, Dugan reasons, the Giants should front load guaranteed money rather than pay signing bonuses which are prorated through the life of the contract. This is where dead cap money is created. By avoiding these signing bonuses the team has the flexibility to move on from a mistake after two years with little or no cap consequences. This can only be done when a team has a lot of room under the cap. So, for me, it is not a matter of who we sign, but rather avoiding a crippling contract ( Solder) that creates dead money. Picking the right free agent is half the battle. Structuring the contract to provide flexibility in the future is the other half of the battle. DG should read Dugan�s article.

I agree with this approach wholeheartedly. I have said so in the past, fewer FA but with front loaded contracts...
RE: RE: RE: giantstock  
giantstock : 2/17/2020 7:59 pm : link
In comment 14812369 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
In comment 14812248 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 14812243 Eric from BBI said:


Quote:


the Giants have been one of the most aggressive teams in free agency for almost a decade now.



Eric. Read this thread. There are posters on here saying we shouldn't be aggressive. So you agree with me that we should or do you disagree?

Further-- haven't we heard two years ago DG was cash-strapped and couldn't be aggressive in his 1st year? (Which I disagreed with).

Some of the posts - people don't want us to be aggressive. I'm just offering imo they should be. Go after aggressively a pass rusher, an iLB, and a center. OFC I think they will also go after LW. AM I wrong on any of this in your opinion?




"Aggressive" like Nate Solder "aggressive"? Or Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon, etc.?

I'm more interested in making good decisions.

But history has pretty much shown that you build teams through the draft rather than free agency.


Yes but DG has done a pretty good job drafting, hasn't he? There is a god chance we found our QB. SO DG has drafted two years in lwo rounds and this year will be a 3rd of drafting in prime spots. With all the GMEn have drafted and all the young players, how is that getting juts 4 YOUNG Free Agents should be categorized as "building through Free Agency?"

With year #3 in prime draft position for the Giants-- much of the team has already been built through the draft. Guys like Solder and Tate were Free Agents but ARE NOT part of the long-term rebuild.

It's time to utilize our game-breaking RB. It;s time to put some faith in Jones by getting him some studs in his early contract years and keep him from not living on his back.
I recently started a thread about not being aggressive this year...  
Milton : 2/18/2020 7:57 am : link
But one reason to be aggressive is the fact that the anticipated new TV deal could push the salary cap through the roof and make any extravagant contracts signed this off-season look like bigtime bargains come 2022.
I think fans tend to miss the fact  
JonC : 2/18/2020 8:21 am : link
that not every free agent class or draft is created equally. each year UFA (and the draft) has its inherent strengths and weaknesses, and they're not all created equally. Just because a player like Ngakoue is out there doesn't mean he's worth the type of contract he could attract. Same with Solder, handing him the contract DG did because he was the best LT available was lunacy. Just because insert LT here could be the best OT available when we pick at #4, doesn't mean he's the right OT for NYG moving forward. That's why the "we must draft OT with our #1 pick" year after year are painfully short-sighted.

You've got to do your homework and make smart decisions. You don't spend for the sake of it because you've got a ton of cap space. It goes very quickly and if you're not smart with it, you've saddled yourself with the kind of mess DG's been trying to clean up (in parallel with the additional mess he's created, though not the same caliber of financial/cap mistakes Reese made).
RE: The myth of building thru the draft  
giantstock : 2/18/2020 9:07 am : link
In comment 14812492 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:


Looked at another way they pretty much drafted their speed passing game and have kind of filled in the blanks the best they could everywhere else.


I love this style which is why I want them to get that OL fixed. Barkley is a freak if you get him an OLine. If we are to believe Jones is going to be a very good QB then there isn't ANYTHING much more important than early in his career getting him an OLINe that won't allow him to get consistently crushed. Youve got to protect the very young number 1 most important position on the football field.

We just hear sometimes the tired excuses of a GM's job that;s it's "tough." It's an excuse. The Giants have a fantastic opportunity with potentially two enormously talented offensive weapons. They have a definite hole at center and their starting RT - Remmers is gone. Unless you are a strong believer in the bench-- you try to give Barkley and Jones whatever you can in that OLINE. nothing wrong wiht trying to build a tremendous offense as the Chiefs did while you can get defensive players with all your money and draft picks too. But they need ot go after YOUTH.

More than likely one of the Tackles that gets drafted in rd 1 is going to be a heckuvva tackle -- whether it be a RT or LT. The most important positions on the OLINe are Tackles. This is on the GM and the scouts ot get it right whether it be FA or draft. It's just that right now Barkley and Jones are cheap. -- AND the Giants can always TRAADE.

Bottmoline okay if they don't draft high and/ or get big ticket FA's on the OLINE. But when it's all said and done-- they better be right. If they aren't then it's time to show DG the door. This would be year number 3. Right now we only have 2 OLINEMEN for the the next several years.
christian  
JonC : 2/18/2020 9:32 am : link
Thanks for your posts, doing a better job of articulating the finer points than me.
RE: christian  
christian : 2/18/2020 2:52 pm : link
In comment 14813055 JonC said:
Quote:
Thanks for your posts, doing a better job of articulating the finer points than me.


We typically agree on this topic. If a guy has shown or honestly projects to be a really good player, pay him what it takes.

There aren't other good reasons to pay a guy a lot. Especially in a fixed budget.

Otherwise you're hoping for a miracle.
Absolutely  
JonC : 2/18/2020 3:03 pm : link
it's why the contracts given to Vernon, Solder, Tate, and Ogletree drove me nuts. I was wrong about Jackrabbit, he was worth the investment, and we need much more of that and less of the former. After watching what OV delivered for $17M per the argument and validity of being sharp with valuation and spending wisely should be crystal clear.
RE: Absolutely  
gidiefor : Mod : 2/19/2020 1:45 pm : link
In comment 14813488 JonC said:
Quote:
it's why the contracts given to Vernon, Solder, Tate, and Ogletree drove me nuts. I was wrong about Jackrabbit, he was worth the investment, and we need much more of that and less of the former. After watching what OV delivered for $17M per the argument and validity of being sharp with valuation and spending wisely should be crystal clear.


I think it's fair to caution Let the Buyer Beware when it comes to FA contracts, investing in bad players hurts you, whether it's in FA or the Draft; but you need to build a team using all the weapons at your disposal, and you certainly need to be smart in the way you allocate your resources.

OV was not a good performer over the life of his contract; he flashed and that's about it. If i'm honest with myself I have to admit that Solder is OV's counterpart on the Oline. Both of them, however, were seemingly the best player available in FA at their position when signed. Tate, at least, has been a very reliable player. Ogletree not so much. Jack Rabbit and Snacks were both pretty good values for their contracts
Let me add one more criteria to signing big money FA  
.McL. : 2/19/2020 2:13 pm : link
If you down the route of signing big money FA, then you should be reasonable certain that your team will be "in the mix" during the window of the contract. If you know that you are not likely to be a in the mix, then I don't think it makes much sense to sign such players. Most big money FA are on their 2nd contract, and are unlikely to be top performers into a 3rd contract. So there is a 4 - 5 year window to take advantage of these players.

If you can't be successful, i.e. "in the mix", then all you are doing is wasting the team's and player's time. Better to pick up fewer FA with front loaded contracts. Then you can cut bait without much penalty. This allows you to remain fluid until you believe you are within striking range. Then you go for the big money guys, to put yourself over the top.
RE: RE: Absolutely  
giantstock : 2/20/2020 12:50 am : link
In comment 14814214 gidiefor said:
Quote:
In comment 14813488 JonC said:


Quote:


it's why the contracts given to Vernon, Solder, Tate, and Ogletree drove me nuts. I was wrong about Jackrabbit, he was worth the investment, and we need much more of that and less of the former. After watching what OV delivered for $17M per the argument and validity of being sharp with valuation and spending wisely should be crystal clear.



I think it's fair to caution Let the Buyer Beware when it comes to FA contracts, investing in bad players hurts you, whether it's in FA or the Draft; but you need to build a team using all the weapons at your disposal, and you certainly need to be smart in the way you allocate your resources.

OV was not a good performer over the life of his contract; he flashed and that's about it. If i'm honest with myself I have to admit that Solder is OV's counterpart on the Oline. Both of them, however, were seemingly the best player available in FA at their position when signed. Tate, at least, has been a very reliable player. Ogletree not so much. Jack Rabbit and Snacks were both pretty good values for their contracts


With respect I disagree with how you are looking at this. Solder was an older LT that was never pro bowl material or when signed he was past his prime to be a pro bowl player. The team was NOT on their way up. If you are not on your way up you don't go spend most of your cap on one aging player.

And to further that you're speaking to Tate. That's another stupid signing unless the GMen are planning to win. If you're in a rebuild how does a huge overpay for a number2/3 aging receiver mean much of anything when your team is in a major rebuild? SO what he showed you something this past year. He just took away money from a younger player or 2 the GMEN could have gotten that could be part of something special in the future when the team is ready.

Now - I think it fair to say if GMEN are trying to be competitive team enough to be a playoff contender next year and the following year for sure then the overpay isn't so bad or might be okay. But more than likely we're going to suck again next year unless we hit on Free Agents too. I think chances are better if you sign the right quality players. You want them to go bargain basement - fine. But if they suck again this upcoming season-- then what was the point of Tate? To lift the Giants to 4-12 instead of 2-14?

But if DG is aggressive and gets some hits with "Impact" Free Agents-- then Tate is a value to a playoff contending team. If you aren't a playoff contending team then an older player with no past ties to the team isn't worth much of a high paying free gent contract for his position.

We need to stop being scared of our own shadow with Free Agency if a huge point is "look what happened to Solder - I'm not going to do that again . . ." You need to make a wiser choice than Solder which was dumb from the start. And if you aren't going to be aggressive in FA, then the Tate move was dumb because the team will probably stink yet again.
RE: Let me add one more criteria to signing big money FA  
giantstock : 2/20/2020 12:53 am : link
In comment 14814239 .McL. said:
Quote:
If you down the route of signing big money FA, then you should be reasonable certain that your team will be "in the mix" during the window of the contract. If you know that you are not likely to be a in the mix, then I don't think it makes much sense to sign such players. Most big money FA are on their 2nd contract, and are unlikely to be top performers into a 3rd contract. So there is a 4 - 5 year window to take advantage of these players.

If you can't be successful, i.e. "in the mix", then all you are doing is wasting the team's and player's time. Better to pick up fewer FA with front loaded contracts. Then you can cut bait without much penalty. This allows you to remain fluid until you believe you are within striking range. Then you go for the big money guys, to put yourself over the top.


If you feel you have your QB - and he is in that cheap salary stage, then getting some 25- 26 year old Free Agents at other positions can put you "in the mix" for playoff contention in 2020, and then in 2021 better.
RE: RE: Absolutely  
JonC : 2/20/2020 8:13 am : link
In comment 14814214 gidiefor said:
Quote:
In comment 14813488 JonC said:


Quote:


it's why the contracts given to Vernon, Solder, Tate, and Ogletree drove me nuts. I was wrong about Jackrabbit, he was worth the investment, and we need much more of that and less of the former. After watching what OV delivered for $17M per the argument and validity of being sharp with valuation and spending wisely should be crystal clear.



I think it's fair to caution Let the Buyer Beware when it comes to FA contracts, investing in bad players hurts you, whether it's in FA or the Draft; but you need to build a team using all the weapons at your disposal, and you certainly need to be smart in the way you allocate your resources.

OV was not a good performer over the life of his contract; he flashed and that's about it. If i'm honest with myself I have to admit that Solder is OV's counterpart on the Oline. Both of them, however, were seemingly the best player available in FA at their position when signed. Tate, at least, has been a very reliable player. Ogletree not so much. Jack Rabbit and Snacks were both pretty good values for their contracts


I get it but being the best available at their position, in my mind, isn't good enough to justify a heavy overpay. It's the epitome of shopping hungry and desperate. The distinction between best available at that time and worthy of the contract are vital, especially if we acknowledge how infrequently the talent actually worth the contract is allowed to reach UFA. More often than not, you're signing talent their prior team has willingly cut loose due to warts. Therein lies the art of using UFA, and so far as GM DG has stunk at it. As good as he was in 2005 in putting the finishes touches on a SB winner for 2007, as GM now he's been off the mark.

I was really happy to sign Solder, but then took a step back and began to factor in the inconsistency, the nagging injuries, his age, and then asked myself why would the Giants make him the highest paid tackle in the NFL when Patriots were willing let him go. Shopping hungry, and it leaves a bad taste for me.

DG has some urgency to improve this roster fast, and he's going to be shopping hungry, so many might get their wish. As a fan, I want to see fast improvements too and perhaps shouldn't bother to look at who's paid what. But, as one who tends to look at the details, heavy overspending in a cap league when rosters tend to run their course in 3-4 years triggers my ocd, lol.
RE: RE: Let me add one more criteria to signing big money FA  
.McL. : 2/20/2020 1:23 pm : link
In comment 14814617 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 14814239 .McL. said:


Quote:


If you down the route of signing big money FA, then you should be reasonable certain that your team will be "in the mix" during the window of the contract. If you know that you are not likely to be a in the mix, then I don't think it makes much sense to sign such players. Most big money FA are on their 2nd contract, and are unlikely to be top performers into a 3rd contract. So there is a 4 - 5 year window to take advantage of these players.

If you can't be successful, i.e. "in the mix", then all you are doing is wasting the team's and player's time. Better to pick up fewer FA with front loaded contracts. Then you can cut bait without much penalty. This allows you to remain fluid until you believe you are within striking range. Then you go for the big money guys, to put yourself over the top.



If you feel you have your QB - and he is in that cheap salary stage, then getting some 25- 26 year old Free Agents at other positions can put you "in the mix" for playoff contention in 2020, and then in 2021 better.

The Giants are a team that has won 12 games in 3 years. Deservedly so. The roster has sucked, and still sucks. The Giants are not a special FA or 2 away from "being in the mix". And In my mind you don't go after those FA just to get "in the mix" you go after them once you have gotten there to put yourself over the top.
giantstock; bottom line here is that you want the Giants  
.McL. : 2/20/2020 1:26 pm : link
to reach the playoffs in 2020...

I get it. I'm a fan too.
Tired of all the losing.

If you jump the gun on the "special" FA then you use up cap space and flexibility for the future. You have a limited window in which to win, but are probably not good enough to do so. Which puts you back into the cellar in 2 - 4 years. I don't want that. I want to build something sustainable.
Look at the Rams...  
.McL. : 2/20/2020 1:27 pm : link
Their window already looks like its closing.
RE: Look at the Rams...  
giantstock : 2/20/2020 6:25 pm : link
In comment 14814925 .McL. said:
Quote:
Their window already looks like its closing.


Can't look at the Rams in the same light. They're different unless you believe the Giants QB is no better than the Rams and if you also if don't believe in Barkley. You don't believe in Barkley, do you? I've sen some of your prior posts.

i understand part of your pov in that you don't believe in SB. I do believe in him if you give a him a good OL and it is reachable THIS YEAR to do it WHILE REMAINING YOUNG. I am taking a leap of faith with Jones. If jones is for real-- then THIS IS WHEN YOU DO IT. You give him young quality pieces.

And think about all I've said on offense is just one center in FA and draft a LT. That's hardly "hurting our future."

And-- are you trying to say there isn't any good young FA's available regaining a pass rusher and an ILB? It looks like DG is going to get LW. SO potentially he has 5 quality front 7 players. Now you have the 2nd rd draft and other chances to build up the d more. You mean there is no chance for the defense to be at least a little bit below average? Add that to giving Jones and Barkley an OLIne. -- that's a playoff contender. Not a SB contender. But ig you get young guys - it's more than 1 year to two and I've proposed more than just 2 FA's.

And if Jones "isn't the guy" and he's more like the Rams QB and Barkley is more like ToddG -- then DG needs to go. This is the perfect time to give the young, cheap, promising QB a chance along with a young high-powered Barkley. If you don't think much of one or the other-- then usre -- punt this year but then dump you got to dump DG.
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