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NFT: Miracle on Ice: 40 years later - the analytics

pjcas18 : 2/19/2020 12:18 pm
So, you knew this was bound to happen, but someone went through the effort of quantifying many analytics about USA vs Russia in 1980 to help quantify just how miraculous a win it was.

the results? more miraculous than some may have thought.

Link below.

Some highlights:

Quote:
....The most basic metric is total shot attempts -- the total number of shots a team takes, whether they hit or miss the net or are blocked by the opposition, commonly known in the hockey stats community as Corsi -- specifically those taken when both teams are skating five players a side. It is commonly presented to show possession tendencies. Consider:

In all situations, the USSR had 52 shot attempts, while the U.S. recorded just 25 (67.5% of the total attempts).

When taking that same statistic and looking at only 5-on-5 situations, the USSR held a 46-21 shot attempt advantage (68.7% shot share).

When looking at shots that hit their target, the official box score credited the USSR with 39 total shots on goal, and we determined it had 31 at 5-on-5. The United States? Try 16, and just seven at 5-on-5. We actually classified six of those 16 American shots as dump-ins on goal, too, meaning there were really 10 true shots from Team USA. A ridiculous 71% of shots on goal in the game came from the Soviets, and that number jumped to 81.6% at 5-on-5....


Quote:
Running a possession deficit that substantial is not usually going to lead to success, and it's somewhat rare to see. Over the past three NHL postseasons, only five playoff games out of 258 have had a possession disparity as large or larger than what we saw in the Miracle on Ice.


Quote:
..Perhaps the more alarming metric is the number of scoring chances the U.S. allowed. According to our manually tracked data, the Soviets accounted for 20 scoring chances at 5-on-5 (unblocked shots that come from within a more dangerous area of the ice). The U.S. counterpunch? We tracked seven total scoring chances during 5-on-5 play for the Americans. Seven. That's it.

That means the Soviets owned 74.1% of the scoring chances in the game during 5-on-5 situations but scored on only two of them. The U.S., meanwhile, converted on three of its seven even-strength scoring chances. That's some serious opportunism.


As a youth hockey coach, this is fascinating to me:

Quote:
"You know, you watch hockey games today and they shorten their bench, but Herb never shortened our bench," captain Mike Eruzione said during a recent teleconference. "We're playing the Soviets and we're playing [line] one, two, three, four, one, two, three, four. [Mark] Wells centered [Phil] Verchota and [Eric] Strobel as a fourth line, and trust me, that was an awfully good fourth line.

"In that Soviet game, we would -- in a minute and a half to two minutes -- play all four lines. I mean, you'd be out there for 30 seconds max, 15 seconds sometimes."



Link - ( New Window )
I was flying home from PIttsburgh during college so I missed the game  
GiantBlue : 2/19/2020 12:33 pm : link
As I was debarking the plane at Kennedy, the signs with the red lights above the walkway back to the gates had United States beats Russia!

People were so excited as we exited the gate area.

It seemed like a certainty they would beat Sweden for the gold medal.
I am not a hockey fan  
johnnyb : 2/19/2020 12:38 pm : link
but those statistics speak volumes. We had no right winning hat game but that is why it is called a miracle. It truly was. I was 15 at the time and remember watching the game in my friend's bedroom on a small black & white TV.
I was living & working in Hamburg, West Germany (back then)  
BocaGene : 2/19/2020 12:54 pm : link
I was watching the game in my apartment, alone. I was drinking some St. Pauli beer and probably eating some wurst.

I was going nuts...what a game...at the end...I went to my balcony screaming, yelling.

On the street, Geschwisterstrolle Strausse, there were many other people yelling, screaming.

I never did find out who those folks were, but it was the good old Cold War, so beating the Russkies, the best hockey team in the world, was special.

For you young folks, back then, there was no internet, no email, not texting and a phone call back to the states cost $10.00 per minute!
It truly is mind boggling....  
rnargi : 2/19/2020 12:55 pm : link
I've watched that game I don't know how many times...and I still can't believe they won. Mike E has a new book out, you should read it. It's good. "America's House Guest", he still lives in Winthrop near my brother. A very down to earth, approachable guy who always has time for a handshake, a picture, and answer to a question or comment.

Greatest sporting moment of my life, and certainly near the top of my list for great American moments. It had been a very tough decade for many average Americans. It was nice to be on top of something with that win.
great film  
Ron Johnson : 2/19/2020 1:00 pm : link
worth watching
Link - ( New Window )
RE: I was flying home from PIttsburgh during college so I missed the game  
kinard : 2/19/2020 1:07 pm : link
In comment 14814128 GiantBlue said:
Quote:
As I was debarking the plane at Kennedy, the signs with the red lights above the walkway back to the gates had United States beats Russia!

People were so excited as we exited the gate area.

It seemed like a certainty they would beat Sweden for the gold medal.


It was Finland who they beat for the Gold. It was no certainty. They were actually down going into the third period.
Another factor overlooked  
Stan in LA : 2/19/2020 1:17 pm : link
The U.S. HAD to win that game because if they tied, the Soviet Union would have played their next game for the Gold(no overtime back then). So the last 10 minutes were for everything.
Which 5 games?  
Mad Mike : 2/19/2020 1:30 pm : link
Quote:
only five playoff games out of 258 have had a possession disparity as large or larger than what we saw in the Miracle on Ice.

I assume they mean only five games had that big a disparity, with the team on the wrong side losing, as opposed to just five games at all. Either way, if it's only five games, kind of annoying they don't list them. Would be interesting to see what they were, especially if some are recent enough that we might remember them.
I was just starting my youth  
pjcas18 : 2/19/2020 1:35 pm : link
hockey career, and we had a game vs Ramapo during the USA vs Russia game as part of a weekend tournament.

when they announced USA won, they stopped the game, all the kids through their gloves in the air and we celebrated, parents and spectators, everyone was celebrating. I was 7 years old, had no idea why we were celebrating.

This past Thanksgiving my daughters (12 years old) team played in a tournament at Lake Placid. I'm not an emotional person, like not even a little, but man, being in that village, skating on that ice (there was a team/coaches/parents skate), watching my daughter score a goal on the same ice Eruzione sealed the game vs Russia I felt it. so much emotion (for me).

They had a skills competition and our team took gold in the relay and we won bronze in the tournament. One of the best hockey moments of my life and I wasn't even playing in it.

They had two games on the Herb Brooks sheet (the one where US beat Russia and won the gold), but they played the bronze on a different sheet.

Anyone who has the chance I cannot recommend a visit to Lake Placid highly enough. There are always hockey tournaments up there so if you want to watch youth hockey you're in the right place, but otherwise I'd avoid a tournament weekend. I hear it's great in the summer too - so scenic.

Hard to believe there was an Olympics there. We watched a luge event (world cup) and climbed the practice ski jump "hill".

here is a picture of the bronze medal winners. The Lady Crusaders.




RE: Which 5 games?  
pjcas18 : 2/19/2020 1:37 pm : link
In comment 14814196 Mad Mike said:
Quote:


Quote:


only five playoff games out of 258 have had a possession disparity as large or larger than what we saw in the Miracle on Ice.


I assume they mean only five games had that big a disparity, with the team on the wrong side losing, as opposed to just five games at all. Either way, if it's only five games, kind of annoying they don't list them. Would be interesting to see what they were, especially if some are recent enough that we might remember them.


I think they meant period not who won - I assumed none of the teams on the lesser end of the disparity won the game. it's ambiguously written though.
RE: great film  
Victor in CT : 2/19/2020 1:44 pm : link
In comment 14814164 Ron Johnson said:
Quote:
worth watching Link - ( New Window )


HBO also did a great one in 2000 for the 20th anniversary
RE: great film  
Stu11 : 2/19/2020 1:44 pm : link
In comment 14814164 Ron Johnson said:
Quote:
worth watching Link - ( New Window )

Absolutely awesome documentary. Showing Slava Fetisov and his kid looking around the old lockeroom gives you goosebumps and really gives a different perspective of the event from the Soviet side.
...  
26.2 : 2/19/2020 1:45 pm : link
An unfortunate story in the WaP today about Pavelich.
Link - ( New Window )
translation..  
Producer : 2/19/2020 1:47 pm : link
they got lucky.. super lucky..
RE: translation..  
Greg from LI : 2/19/2020 1:51 pm : link
In comment 14814216 Producer said:
Quote:
they got lucky.. super lucky..


Lucky, to be sure (especially when Tikhonov yanked Tretiak for Myshkin), but also a goalie who played out of his mind. Jim Craig played an insane game.
RE: translation..  
pjcas18 : 2/19/2020 1:53 pm : link
In comment 14814216 Producer said:
Quote:
they got lucky.. super lucky..


maybe you'd even say it was a miracle.

I will say Jim Craig (USA goalie) and Herb Brooks helped to make their own luck by Craig playing the game of his life, and Brooks with his in-game coaching adjustments that had been a year in the making.
It's why Jim Craig deserved every accolade he got.  
since1925 : 2/19/2020 2:22 pm : link
He was spectacular. I think at one point the was actually standing on his head.
So if they played the same game 10 times  
Metnut : 2/19/2020 3:07 pm : link
Russie might win 8 or 9 of them. They didn't win the one they actually played :)
RE: So if they played the same game 10 times  
Steve in ATL : 2/19/2020 3:12 pm : link
In comment 14814301 Metnut said:
Quote:
Russie might win 8 or 9 of them. They didn't win the one they actually played :)


Sort of like the Giants beating the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.
"That's what you've earned here tonight - one game"  
Greg from LI : 2/19/2020 3:46 pm : link
"If we played them ten times, they might win nine.....but not this game. Not tonight."
I had  
PaulN : 2/19/2020 4:12 pm : link
Season tickets in the green, right underneath Eddie Layton, we were there for the 10-3 drubbing the Soviets gave us, and it was worse than that, we did not belong on the same ice as them. Miracle is the only word to use. That was only 2 weeks prior to the miracle on ice, Feb., 9th, the miracle on ice was the 23rd, I think they both Friday games. I remember coming home to watch on a tape delay broadcast that night. I heard 2-2 after 1 period listening to wfan for the ride home from work, I couldn't believe my ears, this team humiliated the nhl all stars in a 3 game series at msg, the deciding game was a 6-0 destruction, that was in 1979, just to give everyone a clear picture of just how good they were, they were a thing of beauty, unmatched.
RE: I had  
Victor in CT : 2/19/2020 4:18 pm : link
In comment 14814352 PaulN said:
Quote:
Season tickets in the green, right underneath Eddie Layton, we were there for the 10-3 drubbing the Soviets gave us, and it was worse than that, we did not belong on the same ice as them. Miracle is the only word to use. That was only 2 weeks prior to the miracle on ice, Feb., 9th, the miracle on ice was the 23rd, I think they both Friday games. I remember coming home to watch on a tape delay broadcast that night. I heard 2-2 after 1 period listening to wfan for the ride home from work, I couldn't believe my ears, this team humiliated the nhl all stars in a 3 game series at msg, the deciding game was a 6-0 destruction, that was in 1979, just to give everyone a clear picture of just how good they were, they were a thing of beauty, unmatched.


nice story excpet for 1 thing: there was no WFAN until 1987
I don't remember much of that game  
Matt M. : 2/19/2020 4:19 pm : link
But, do remember the last several minutes and the tension. Of course, Al Michael's call is forever etched in my brain. I can admit, though, that for years I didn't realize or at least remember that game wasn't for the gold. It was almost billed that way given the Geo-political climate. But, I was 8 and not a real hockey fan back then.
My Dad and I were at the game  
Phil in LA : 2/19/2020 4:26 pm : link
where the Soviets crushed the Rangers. Ugh. Then Team USA straightened it out. Strangers were hugging on the streets of Manhattan.
RE: I was just starting my youth  
Del Shofner : 2/19/2020 4:29 pm : link
In comment 14814201 pjcas18 said:
Quote:

here is a picture of the bronze medal winners. The Lady Crusaders.



great pic, pj. Enjoy these days as they do grow up.
RE: My Dad and I were at the game  
Victor in CT : 2/19/2020 4:41 pm : link
In comment 14814372 Phil in LA said:
Quote:
where the Soviets crushed the Rangers. Ugh. Then Team USA straightened it out. Strangers were hugging on the streets of Manhattan.


If I remember correctly, that was the game where after a late goal, Dave Maloney went to break his stick over the crossbar, missed and instead whacked JD across his achilles tendon. Luckily it was only a severe contusion, no tear or ruptur.
.  
Stan in LA : 2/19/2020 5:32 pm : link
Was in Florida on family vacation.  
GiantsUA : 2/19/2020 5:33 pm : link
I was 15 and if I am remembering correctly we were at the beach and it was announced on radio.

Everyone was really happy.

I don't like to brag  
KeoweeFan : 2/19/2020 6:47 pm : link
but when I do, it's on BBI. It makes for a good story.

My son wrote the NYS theme for those Olympics; it was the music played at the passing of the torch in Albany and repeated many times the following weeks. (I recall that Chuck Mangione wrote the national theme).

As a result our family was treated by the state of NY to an all expense paid several days in Lake Placid (during the Olympic Arts Festival the week before the competition.)

An interesting factlett that demonstrates how screwed up NYS was and still is, the performers the state picked to play for the pre Olympic Concert was the Connecticut State Youth Orchestra!

The arrangement for the passing of the torch was a normal band arrangement, but what most likely won my son the award was he also submitted an orchestral arrangement with strings, coral group and rock band . You should have seen the scowl on the face of the conductor of the Connecticut orchestra when he had to call the rock band on stage along with my son for trumpet solo!

For those from Rochester, you might recognize the then out of work, recent Eastman graduate, who was my son's teacher of trumpet and composition, Jeff Tyzek.
I don't know who's heard this  
rnargi : 2/19/2020 7:44 pm : link
But I love this alternate call of the game. Particularly the ending. This guy didn't know what to say! His call of the Eruzioni goal is amazing.
Alternative Miracle Call - ( New Window )
I  
PaulN : 2/19/2020 11:15 pm : link
Guess it was a news report then, when did Pete Franklin start, its too long ago for every detail, but I heard the score of the game, which didn't televise until late night or even the next morning, everyone was caught up in the run, a medal was the dream, beating that Soviet team was a pipe dream, Craig looked lucky at times, off balance at times but kept making the saves.
I said  
PaulN : 2/20/2020 9:07 am : link
How great that Soviet team was, but the USA team was a very good team and had that comeback ability right from the start when they tied the third favorite team Sweden in the last 10 seconds of the game. The USA team a couple games later beat the 2nd favorite pre tourney team Checks, 7-3. That is when hopes started to sore. Once we had those 2 games out of the way we sort of cruised until the Russian game. When you watched that game and heard that crowd and they blundered in the last seconds of the first pereiod and Johnson tied the game, even though I knew it would happen having heard the score, you started to really hope, that crowd was absolutely sensational.
The 3 greatest upsets ever  
PaulN : 2/20/2020 9:12 am : link
1- Team USA and it is not close. 2- The Jets in Super Bowl 3. 3- The Giants in Super Bowl 42.
good point PaulN about the talent on that USA team  
Victor in CT : 2/20/2020 9:40 am : link
Neal Broten, Dave Christian, Ken Morrow, Mike Ramsey, Mark Pavelich, Dave Silk, Mark Johnson, Bill Baker, Steve Christoff. Rob McClanahan, Jack O'Callahan all played in the NHL for a good length of time,. Ramsey (HOF I think) Christian, Morrow, Christian and Broten were REALLY good.
RE: good point PaulN about the talent on that USA team  
pjcas18 : 2/20/2020 9:57 am : link
In comment 14814696 Victor in CT said:
Quote:
Neal Broten, Dave Christian, Ken Morrow, Mike Ramsey, Mark Pavelich, Dave Silk, Mark Johnson, Bill Baker, Steve Christoff. Rob McClanahan, Jack O'Callahan all played in the NHL for a good length of time,. Ramsey (HOF I think) Christian, Morrow, Christian and Broten were REALLY good.



Ramsey is definitely not in the NHL HOF. He was a classic "stay at home defenseman". Good player long career. Maybe USA Hockey HOF.

Almost none of the Miracle on Ice players had great NHL careers, making the Olympic gold even more impressive.



RE: RE: good point PaulN about the talent on that USA team  
Mad Mike : 2/20/2020 10:02 am : link
In comment 14814712 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Ramsey is definitely not in the NHL HOF. He was a classic "stay at home defenseman". Good player long career. Maybe USA Hockey HOF.

Correct.
RE: I was flying home from PIttsburgh during college so I missed the game  
LS : 2/20/2020 10:24 am : link
In comment 14814128 GiantBlue said:
Quote:
As I was debarking the plane at Kennedy, the signs with the red lights above the walkway back to the gates had United States beats Russia!

People were so excited as we exited the gate area.

It seemed like a certainty they would beat Sweden for the gold medal.


They played Finland for the gold medal.
RE: The 3 greatest upsets ever  
Sec 103 : 2/20/2020 10:51 am : link
In comment 14814672 PaulN said:
Quote:
1- Team USA and it is not close. 2- The Jets in Super Bowl 3. 3- The Giants in Super Bowl 42.

Amazing stats on this game, really a MIRACLE...
But I disagree on number 2 here, I think the Red Sox come back 3 games down to Yanks is pretty high, maybe number 3... JEST, not so much
RE: The 3 greatest upsets ever  
CT Charlie : 2/20/2020 10:55 am : link
In comment 14814672 PaulN said:
Quote:
1- Team USA and it is not close. 2- The Jets in Super Bowl 3. 3- The Giants in Super Bowl 42.


I agree that the "Miracle" was the greatest upset by a wide margin. Depending on how you define "greatest," though, I don't think the Jets win falls in the same conversation. It was certainly one of the most unexpected, but if they played the game 10 times, I think a lot of people -- after the fact -- would say the Jets might have won 3 or 4 times, or even more. Joe Namath himself (a biased source) said that his teammates were not impressed with the Chiefs when they watched the film before the game.

The Giants in SB42 falls in the middle. Based on how they fared in the final regular season game, where the Pats won 38-35, I think the Giants might have won 2 out of 10, or maybe more because of the dominant pass rush.

US vs. USSR? Realistically, if they played 10 times I think the Russians would have won 10. The Soviets beat the Rangers 6-0 the season before, and only a few weeks before the Olympics the Soviets beat the US team 10-3. The upset felt like that of a bunch of Russian college kids beating the Golden State Warriors with Curry, Durant & Co. at their peak -- that's how improbable it was.
Another Met fan/Yankee hater  
PaulN : 2/20/2020 1:24 pm : link
Red Sox had Pedro and Schilling as their top two starters, you even know who the Yankee top two were? The Yankees were not as good a team that year, just because they were ahead 3-0. So your pick is stupid, and only because you hate the yankees, that series was big favorite, stupidity as usual. Or jealousy, which is more true.
Those  
PaulN : 2/20/2020 1:31 pm : link
Guys became good NHL players, a few of them did, don't disparage their careers, no there were no stars on the team, but many had good careers.
Link - ( New Window )
To have an upset  
PaulN : 2/20/2020 1:45 pm : link
The upset must be set from the start of the game or series, you can't say that because the Yanks were ahead 3-0 that makes it a great upset, what were the odds before the series, and anyone with a brain back then knew the Red Sox had a huge starting pitching advantage over the Yanks.

Game 1 - Schilling vs Mussina
Game 2 - Pedro vs John Lieber
Game 3 - Arroyo vs Kevin Brown
Game 4 - Lowe vs El Duque Hernandez
Game 5 - Pedro vs Mussina
Game 6 - Schilling vs Lieber
Game 7 - Lowe vs Brown

So the Red Sox suffered through starting Pedro twice, Schilling twice, Lowe twice, and Arroyo once. You got to be clueless to call this series the second greatest upset in sports history. Take a look at these position players.
Link - ( New Window )
I said  
pjcas18 : 2/20/2020 2:00 pm : link
"Almost none of the Miracle on Ice players had great NHL careers, making the Olympic gold even more impressive."


"Great" and "almost none".

if that is disparaging, sorry, but I'm not sorry I stand by my words.
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