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NFT: Corona virus on the rise...

bw in dc : 2/22/2020 4:13 pm
Unfortunately, the virus is slowly gaining traction outside of China; and trying to trace it's origins and spread are becoming more and more difficult.

Cases are spreading in South Korea, Iran, Italy, Lebanon, Singapore. And you have to imagine the resources needed in many of those countries aren't great.

In a new article on Washington Post today, this is a pretty ominous point by a Hopkins health scholar:

Quote:

“I think we should assume that this virus is very soon going to be spreading in communities here, if it isn’t already, and despite aggressive actions, we should be putting more efforts to mitigate impacts,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist and senior scholar the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “That means protecting people who are most likely to develop severe illness and die.”


I think we are about to have a lot of our infrastructure and systems tested. Healthcare, transportation, employment, food, banking, etc.

Hopefully, we are up for it...


Corona - ( New Window )
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Should read “scared”  
jpkmets : 2/23/2020 4:50 pm : link
I’m just an idiot that can’t spell
yes  
giantfan2000 : 2/23/2020 5:34 pm : link
Wonder what happens with Olympics in Tokyo ?
RE: yes  
MM_in_NYC : 2/23/2020 6:00 pm : link
In comment 14816838 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:
Wonder what happens with Olympics in Tokyo ?


interesting question. i suspect we're going to be hearing a lot about this.
I ordered a laptop from HP on President's Day  
TheMick7 : 2/23/2020 6:06 pm : link
Found out the next day the computer was being made completely in China.Went to CDC website & #2 was objects exposed to virus.Called HP & after they gave me some grief,they cancelled it on Friday for me. Might have been overkill but once I read the CDC's suggestions,I didn't want to take any chances!
No one  
rocco8112 : 2/23/2020 6:29 pm : link
is disturbed by events that, as far as I can tell have never happened before. China, with all the economic and politcal risk entailed, put Draconian quarantine measures at the epicenter and strong measured over nearly the whole country. This is more people under quarantine than live in the US more than two times over. This is to combat a glorified Flu?

Internet images videos show squads and machines spraying disinfectant all over. Standard flu protocol?

I read 1500 medical workers became ill. Doctors, some young, have died. Flu does this?

This virus is new, no one knows what is going to happen. Supply chains, including for critical goods, may become affected. The CDC warned of inevtible spread in the US. Talking of possibly having to close schools and businesses. Flu?

According to data from China, certainly under reported, has ten percent or more of people needing medical intervention like oxygen. Ten percent at least! This is something to think about. Thjs will be many many people needing a hospital and I know for a stone cold fact NYC has no chance of meeting this demand. How will people react when their loved ones can't get any treatment? Flu? The flu has already taxed the public health system, add in this new virus. Not good.

No one is slightly concerned that the Chinese president admitted they made mistakes? That it was a danger. That means they are scared shitless to me if they admit wrong doing. Their default is to hide the truth and portray constant image of strength.

Look at the expoential growth now in S Korea, lets watch Italy. God knows what is going on in Iran. Why would it not spread like wildfire here in the US and have an unknowable impact on social order.

I hope the Virus is not that virulent as it spreads, the Virus is in control now and frankly we could all be in for a problem of biblical proportions.




Honestly if we’re in for a catastrophe of “biblical proportions”  
Oscar : 2/23/2020 6:56 pm : link
Who gives a shit? If that’s the case no degree of prepping will matter anyway, you’re fucked.

I tend to think the actual impact in the US will be negligible and coronavirus is way down the list of things I’m worried about. And I live in New York and ride the subway every day.

Or who knows maybe it’ll be a global pandemic and we’ll all be dead in six months. We’ll see. Can’t worry about it.
New numbers in China...  
bw in dc : 2/23/2020 10:42 pm : link
77,150 reported cases, 2,592 virus related deaths.

Spiking the death rate to 3.4%.
COVID-19  
Percy : 2/24/2020 1:12 am : link
Ms. Market is not liking this at all, not that the market is a very good predictor, but all the same. The DOW will go off down more than 300 at the open tomorrow. Big companies are taking big hits. This is an uninformed fear response without anyone promising to tell us anything useful about where this is likely to go -- something solid that might moderate or reduce that fear. And a frightened market with no new good or reliable information coming in is going to be very hard on investors worldwide. Bill, please explain to her that our usual flu is so much worse in terms of deaths and get her to believe it.
RE: COVID-19  
rnargi : 2/24/2020 7:43 am : link
In comment 14816987 Percy said:
Quote:
Ms. Market is not liking this at all, not that the market is a very good predictor, but all the same. The DOW will go off down more than 300 at the open tomorrow. Big companies are taking big hits. This is an uninformed fear response without anyone promising to tell us anything useful about where this is likely to go -- something solid that might moderate or reduce that fear. And a frightened market with no new good or reliable information coming in is going to be very hard on investors worldwide. Bill, please explain to her that our usual flu is so much worse in terms of deaths and get her to believe it.


Futures are down nearly 700 as of 0730 this morning.
Reports from Iran are saying 50 people have died  
bubba0825 : 2/24/2020 7:57 am : link
From the virus, that would be a much higher rate than China reported. It’s got people spooked
As someone with a 1 year old child  
Metnut : 2/24/2020 8:53 am : link
this is really terrifying. I think the time to contain this has passed and the WHO and other orgs have to start shifting to mitigatoin.
RE: As someone with a 1 year old child  
rocco8112 : 2/24/2020 9:20 am : link
In comment 14817034 Metnut said:
Quote:
this is really terrifying. I think the time to contain this has passed and the WHO and other orgs have to start shifting to mitigatoin.


There is no containment, it is out and spreading and no one on Earth knows what will happen.

If there was a functional government response, an oxymoron in and of itself, there would be an admission this virus can not be contained and education would begin on what civic duties and day to day habits needed to mitigate its spread.

There would be full scale operations to increase accurate and fast testing capabilities (The CDC's first tests were crap which is a sad joke and indictment on the USA) and to increase the capacity to deliver oxygen and other services needed to treat the high number who seem to get very ill from this. The current healthcare system will collapse in under a week if hit with hundreds or thousands needing oxygen. Not to mention those already in hospitals needing care. There should be facilities planned out and equipped to prepare for this deluge of sick.

None of this is happening.

The hubris of our society will soon be coming home to roost. No one alive, even the experts, can envision thousands sick at once all over the US powered by the expoential growth of the virus. Just picture your local ER, minute clinic, Doctor's office or hospital having to suddenly treat hundreds nd then thousands all at once. Then the health-care workers themselves get sick? This is a big fucking problem and as far as I can tell there has been no official educated communication to the American people, there has been no preparation at the frontline health-care level at all. Expoential growth will ensure that it will be too late once the many are getting sick. I wish the government was like it is portrayed in movies. Skilled, driven by expert opinion, motivated and fast. It is nothing like that in real life, a clown show, this is not an indictment on the many good people who serve, but the government as a whole.

SKorea started testing everyone with flu symptoms and in a week they have nearly a 1000 cases (the US currently cant match their testing volume and speed) , no one was talking about Italy and they have nearly 400 cases and the guy from China they thought was patient zero didnt even have the virus. Iran has admitted it may be all over the country and just five days ago no one was talking about Iran.

This thing is likely in America and elsewhere already. Hopefully there are many unknown cases which means the percentage of those sick or dying from it is actually lower since there is no known number overall.

Maybe I am being crazy, but one thing is for sure, no one knows what is going to happen.
RE: RE: RE: RE: We aren’t all screwed  
Greg from LI : 2/24/2020 9:21 am : link
In comment 14816828 jpkmets said:
Quote:
What concerns me is that in multiple countries governments and private actors are taking some reallly unusual steps that only make sense if they are scarred:


I agree. People can compare this to the flu all they want - no government takes these kinds of measures to prevent the spread of the flu. I don't pretend to be particularly knowledgeable about epidemiology or anything, but we're seeing some rather extreme reactions from people who do have experts advising them.
Rocco.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 2/24/2020 9:35 am : link
Step away from the ledge.
from an economic point of view  
Bill2 : 2/24/2020 9:40 am : link
Cases in Italy, Lebanon and Singapore are troublesome because they are chokepoints in trade shipping lanes.

The combination of Lebanon and Italy is essentially signaling the Mediterranean is criss-crossed and in play.

And Singapore is astride the narrow choke point of the biggest trade shipping lane in the world.

The disease does not have to be proven deadly for insurance companies to raise rates on shipping companies and banks to raise rates on factoring inventory between these points or on warehouses at high volume harbors. Or crews to not sign up for certain routes or harbor loading/unloading absent much higher rates of pay
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: We aren’t all screwed  
Bill L : 2/24/2020 10:10 am : link
In comment 14817081 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 14816828 jpkmets said:


Quote:


What concerns me is that in multiple countries governments and private actors are taking some reallly unusual steps that only make sense if they are scarred:



I agree. People can compare this to the flu all they want - no government takes these kinds of measures to prevent the spread of the flu. I don't pretend to be particularly knowledgeable about epidemiology or anything, but we're seeing some rather extreme reactions from people who do have experts advising them.


Don’t forget you’re comparing the response of year one of something not
Fully known to over a hundred years of broad exposure and response.
RE: RE: As someone with a 1 year old child  
bw in dc : 2/24/2020 10:24 am : link
In comment 14817076 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
In comment 14817034 Metnut said:


Quote:


this is really terrifying. I think the time to contain this has passed and the WHO and other orgs have to start shifting to mitigatoin.



There is no containment, it is out and spreading and no one on Earth knows what will happen.

If there was a functional government response, an oxymoron in and of itself, there would be an admission this virus can not be contained and education would begin on what civic duties and day to day habits needed to mitigate its spread.

There would be full scale operations to increase accurate and fast testing capabilities (The CDC's first tests were crap which is a sad joke and indictment on the USA) and to increase the capacity to deliver oxygen and other services needed to treat the high number who seem to get very ill from this. The current healthcare system will collapse in under a week if hit with hundreds or thousands needing oxygen. Not to mention those already in hospitals needing care. There should be facilities planned out and equipped to prepare for this deluge of sick.

None of this is happening.

The hubris of our society will soon be coming home to roost. No one alive, even the experts, can envision thousands sick at once all over the US powered by the expoential growth of the virus. Just picture your local ER, minute clinic, Doctor's office or hospital having to suddenly treat hundreds nd then thousands all at once. Then the health-care workers themselves get sick? This is a big fucking problem and as far as I can tell there has been no official educated communication to the American people, there has been no preparation at the frontline health-care level at all. Expoential growth will ensure that it will be too late once the many are getting sick. I wish the government was like it is portrayed in movies. Skilled, driven by expert opinion, motivated and fast. It is nothing like that in real life, a clown show, this is not an indictment on the many good people who serve, but the government as a whole.

SKorea started testing everyone with flu symptoms and in a week they have nearly a 1000 cases (the US currently cant match their testing volume and speed) , no one was talking about Italy and they have nearly 400 cases and the guy from China they thought was patient zero didnt even have the virus. Iran has admitted it may be all over the country and just five days ago no one was talking about Iran.

This thing is likely in America and elsewhere already. Hopefully there are many unknown cases which means the percentage of those sick or dying from it is actually lower since there is no known number overall.

Maybe I am being crazy, but one thing is for sure, no one knows what is going to happen.


I don't think you are crazy. Here's the thing - the Chinese have been through this before. So they would seem to be the most practiced at this. But they are nowhere near getting their arms around this thing. I read where they now think this is going to take "months" to settle. Months? That could be two, three, six...whatever. And has been explained many times, who the hell trusts anything they say with their history of manipulation and deceit?

As a country, we have always had the advantage of having two massive oceans between us and most of the rest of the world. I think we are getting closer and closer to the point of having to maximize that advantage. Global economy be damned for a little while...
RE: Rocco.  
rocco8112 : 2/24/2020 10:33 am : link
In comment 14817107 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Step away from the ledge.


hahaI know it sounds nuts, but these events concern me very much
A helpful read  
Bill L : 2/24/2020 10:34 am : link
If anyone is interested
Link - ( New Window )
The markets are getting  
Mr. Bungle : 2/24/2020 11:36 am : link
annihilated.

NASDAQ down 3.5%.
Yeah....  
bw in dc : 2/24/2020 11:59 am : link
if you can get to a good cash base, that will set you up pretty well to buy back in when this thing finally clears...
But somebody  
Producer : 2/24/2020 12:17 pm : link
Said it's going to burn out in April...

Who was that again? I forget. Was that opinion based in science? I think whoever said that was a person of some influence. They couldn't possibly be wrong.
RE: But somebody  
MM_in_NYC : 2/24/2020 1:05 pm : link
In comment 14817443 Producer said:
Quote:
Said it's going to burn out in April...

Who was that again? I forget. Was that opinion based in science? I think whoever said that was a person of some influence. They couldn't possibly be wrong.


it wasn't burn out in april, it was peak in april
and  
MM_in_NYC : 2/24/2020 1:07 pm : link
that was only for in china. not the world
I'm pretty sure Bill L  
widmerseyebrow : 2/24/2020 2:49 pm : link
is the corona virus.
RE: I'm pretty sure Bill L  
Bill L : 2/24/2020 2:55 pm : link
In comment 14817688 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
is the corona virus.

Potentially. I am almost Chinese, you know.

On a related note, did anyone see the story about the off-campus UAlbany Corona Virus party? Barrels of Corona, served by guys in surgical masks, saying that they’re not afraid of Corona Virus. A college thing and I would have thought harmless. But the Asian American Alliance at the school went ballistic.
Saw this over at Yahoo News  
bw in dc : 2/24/2020 2:57 pm : link
Quote:
The World Health Organization on Monday said the new coronavirus epidemic had "peaked" in China but warned that a surge in cases elsewhere was "deeply concerning" and all countries should prepare for a "potential pandemic".


They are really comfortable saying the virus has peaked in China? Is that accurate?

sounds somewhat like  
Bill2 : 2/24/2020 3:11 pm : link
the assurances of "peaked" came from an "official" source or they mean "reported cases" have leveled off in China?

I don't believe a thing official China says about their economy or what they consider "flaws" that might reflect on the Party.

RE: Saw this over at Yahoo News  
Bill L : 2/24/2020 3:29 pm : link
In comment 14817708 bw in dc said:
Quote:


Quote:


The World Health Organization on Monday said the new coronavirus epidemic had "peaked" in China but warned that a surge in cases elsewhere was "deeply concerning" and all countries should prepare for a "potential pandemic".



They are really comfortable saying the virus has peaked in China? Is that accurate?
Id be skeptical about what China says too. They’ve already readjusted their numbers at least twice because they change how to define a case.
Ah, The Delight Of Not Knowing!  
Percy : 2/24/2020 5:37 pm : link
Unusual these days, but only because we forgot how to not know. How to begin by having no idea.
.  
Bill2 : 2/24/2020 6:05 pm : link
But only China. Its the only exception.

I think we can all continue to fully believe everything every other government and "expert" says on just about every subject.

RE: .  
Bill L : 2/24/2020 7:04 pm : link
In comment 14817955 Bill2 said:
Quote:
But only China. Its the only exception.

I think we can all continue to fully believe everything every other government and "expert" says on just about every subject.


I’m not so sure about Iran.

On a different note, keep on eye on Africa as a potential powder keg. Apparently, there’s tons of interactions with China, lots of people moving in and out of Africa from China, and in many of those places there’s terrible medical infrastructure.
Bill, are you still traveling as much as usual?  
yatqb : 2/24/2020 7:33 pm : link
Any concerns about that?

We’re thinking of a European vacation this spring but are a bit leery given that you never know who’s going to be on the plane with you.
BillL  
Bill2 : 2/24/2020 8:19 pm : link
My friend, I was being sarcastic about nations and truth

And Iran is easy to understand. Its oil fields are very populated by Chinese workers and just about its only trading partners are NK and China. Its engineering projects are contracted out to Chinese firms as well. Wuhan hub makes many of the commodities found in oil fields and pipelines so that's an easy connection to understand

Lebanon is easy to understand...it swaps Shia militants with Iran and many of its people are in merchant shipping all over the world.

Italy's manufacturing hub (where the virus is in the Genoa/Milan/Turin area) prefers Chinese goods and ships to China because it makes the same things as Germany so Europe is not a logical trading partner.

Singapore has a predominately Chinese population. It is where Western Engineering/technology firms and many banking firms come in contact with China. I would expect it to be a large transfer node with the rest of the globe.
After this virus passes,  
bw in dc : 2/24/2020 8:21 pm : link
and hopefully soon with fewer deaths, let's hope this is a wake-up call for the US and US businesses to seriously reconsider being so dependent on China for labor, supplies, manufacturing.
yatqb  
Bill2 : 2/24/2020 8:32 pm : link
I have had 3 significant bouts with the flu since December 20th. All after flights. Each time I assumed I was done and resumed normal workloads.

Each flu was different.

Currently, I have not flown for about a month...a long stretch for me.

I don't know what to say about going to Europe. You guys are healthy so there is that. Europe is cool. But flying is essentially being in a silver cigar with recycled air blowing at you for hours.

We think planes are clean. They are not. Each nozzle of air provides recycling containing contributions from the sickest person on the plane.

If you go, stay away from the British Isles and the North Sea Countries. International Energy Worker centric. Stay away from Hungary, Poland, Rumania, Bulgaria for Lebanon is Syria and Syria is refugee camps in those four places.

Northern Spain? Portugal? Iceland? Faroe Islands? Northern France? ( stay away from Southern France ( Marseilles is a major shipping port as is Hamburg and Rotterdam and Amsterdam and Stockholm))

Of course there is Ireland. The people there are impervious. Guinness kills.

Talk them into going to Yankee games?
bw  
Bill2 : 2/24/2020 8:36 pm : link
I think that is happening at a rapid pace.

And it needs to. The supply chains are vulnerable to sudden and inexplicable shifts in taxation, laws, government inspections and endless reverse engineering. It has been a hostile place for American business long before this.
'
As the transport and insurance costs go up, as risk of sudden supply changes increase, the value of the labor arbitrage shrinks.
RE: The markets are getting  
Mr. Bungle : 2/25/2020 2:41 pm : link
In comment 14817351 Mr. Bungle said:
Quote:
annihilated.

NASDAQ down 3.5%.

The markets are getting annihilated. Again.

Dow down 3.3%.

Wiping out 3 and a half months of gains in two days.
Seems like the cat is out of the bag  
bubba0825 : 2/25/2020 2:57 pm : link
And it’s only a matter of time now
Link - ( New Window )
So I am boarding a plane in Manchester, NH  
Darth Paul : 2/26/2020 2:28 pm : link
There are about 20 Asians on the flight, should I be worried?
RE: So I am boarding a plane in Manchester, NH  
Chris in Philly : 2/26/2020 2:37 pm : link
In comment 14819958 Darth Paul said:
Quote:
There are about 20 Asians on the flight, should I be worried?


No.
RE: So I am boarding a plane in Manchester, NH  
jcn56 : 2/26/2020 2:40 pm : link
In comment 14819958 Darth Paul said:
Quote:
There are about 20 Asians on the flight, should I be worried?


Depends - do they know karate?
RE: So I am boarding a plane in Manchester, NH  
Mr. Bungle : 2/26/2020 2:44 pm : link
In comment 14819958 Darth Paul said:
Quote:
There are about 20 Asians on the flight, should I be worried?

You should be far more worried about your ignorance.
For people following this  
schabadoo : 2/26/2020 2:53 pm : link
At least anecdotally, does it seem too late to pick up N95+ masks? HD, Amazon not looking good. Was wondering if specialty stores might have some, like a lumber store or arts and crafts.

Thanks.
RE: For people following this  
jcn56 : 2/26/2020 3:00 pm : link
In comment 14820000 schabadoo said:
Quote:
At least anecdotally, does it seem too late to pick up N95+ masks? HD, Amazon not looking good. Was wondering if specialty stores might have some, like a lumber store or arts and crafts.

Thanks.


You're going to pay a hefty premium. I have some because I do hobby work with fiberglass and cement. I thought of buying a few more, and the stocks in all the usual places were depleted and Amazon's prices were through the roof.
RE: For people following this  
mitch300 : 2/26/2020 5:42 pm : link
In comment 14820000 schabadoo said:
Quote:
At least anecdotally, does it seem too late to pick up N95+ masks? HD, Amazon not looking good. Was wondering if specialty stores might have some, like a lumber store or arts and crafts.

Thanks.

Do you have any facial hair? I see guys with beards wearing A mask.For a n95 to be effective you need to be fit tested. If you do not have a complete seal, it is not doing what it is intended for.
RE: RE: So I am boarding a plane in Manchester, NH  
Darth Paul : 2/26/2020 7:30 pm : link
In comment 14819987 Mr. Bungle said:
Quote:
In comment 14819958 Darth Paul said:


Quote:


There are about 20 Asians on the flight, should I be worried?


You should be far more worried about your ignorance.


Ignorance? The virus is uncontrolled in China. I was on a small plane with 18 Chinese people, I confirmed, and I cannot wonder where they came from or if there is a chance one had the virus?
I know this is no laughing matter for sure  
Milton : 2/26/2020 8:46 pm : link
But I'm reminded of this comedy routine by Kirk Fox...
Bird Flu - ( New Window )
RE: RE: For people following this  
schabadoo : 2/26/2020 11:32 pm : link
In comment 14820007 jcn56 said:
Quote:
In comment 14820000 schabadoo said:


Quote:


At least anecdotally, does it seem too late to pick up N95+ masks? HD, Amazon not looking good. Was wondering if specialty stores might have some, like a lumber store or arts and crafts.

Thanks.



You're going to pay a hefty premium. I have some because I do hobby work with fiberglass and cement. I thought of buying a few more, and the stocks in all the usual places were depleted and Amazon's prices were through the roof.


Thanks for the response. The local lumberyard had some R95s, figured I could use them anyway at some point in the future.
Here is a CDC link...  
BamaBlue : 2/27/2020 8:24 am : link
It updates status every afternoon. There are a lot of unreliable sources of information that lead to confusion and a false sense of comfort or doom (pick your poison). Facts help you to decide when it's time to panic...

At this time, there are 14 cases reported in the US. 12 of the cases are travel related and 2 cases are human-to-human transfer. this total excludes those people that were on the Japanese cruise ship...
CDC Link for COVID19 - ( New Window )
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