Unfortunately, the virus is slowly gaining traction outside of China; and trying to trace it's origins and spread are becoming more and more difficult.
Cases are spreading in South Korea, Iran, Italy, Lebanon, Singapore. And you have to imagine the resources needed in many of those countries aren't great.
In a new article on Washington Post today, this is a pretty ominous point by a Hopkins health scholar:
“I think we should assume that this virus is very soon going to be spreading in communities here, if it isn’t already, and despite aggressive actions, we should be putting more efforts to mitigate impacts,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist and senior scholar the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “That means protecting people who are most likely to develop severe illness and die.” |
I think we are about to have a lot of our infrastructure and systems tested. Healthcare, transportation, employment, food, banking, etc.
Hopefully, we are up for it...
Corona - (
New Window )
ER ).
In 2018-2019 60,000 + died and in 2018-2019, a particularly bad year over 80,000 died. These figures are just for the U.S. Some have pointed out that the fatality rate for coronavirus is 2.5% while for the flu its a fraction of that. Those statistics are an apples to oranges comparison. China is a hotbed for contagious illnesses, as this is the third epidemic ( that we know about ) that they've started in the last 25 years. Their citizens live in rat cages and dormitories. Their air is among the most polluted in the world which makes Chinese particularly vulnerable to respiratory illnesses. Outside of China only 18 have died, including Chinese abroad. The Diamond Princess, Japan , South Korea, Italy and Hong Kong make up the bulk of case outside of China. Doing some quick math the mortality rate is 0.7%. in the U.S its zero.
Quote:
people than the Coronavirus. Just like SARS, Ebola, etc. people lose their mind over this stuff & go into full fledged panic.
It’s only on pace to kill 2% of the worlds population if it continues to spread.
Nothing to see here.
Brilliant, so the whole world is going to get Corona?....more likely less than 2% of the population will get the virus, let alone die from it.
Quote:
In comment 14816384 Terry in CO said:
Quote:
infected an estimated 1/3 of the world's population at the time. Approximately 500 million were infected an 20-50 million victims died (4-10% of those infected). The estimated death toll in the U.S was greater than 600,000.
Unlike most instances of flu, the highest mortality was among healthy adults and not young children or the elderly, which some people have suggested that mortality was actually promoted by a vigorous immune response.
Those numbers are not accurate at all.
The numbers are accurate. From Wikipedia:
Quote:
The global mortality rate from the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). About a third of the world population was infected, and something between 1% and 5.6% of the entire global population of over 1800 million[51] died.[2] An estimate from 1991 says it killed 25–39 million people.[52] A 2005 estimate put the death toll at probably 50 million (less than 3% of the global population), and possibly as high as 100 million (more than 5%).[53][54] But a reassessment in 2018 estimated the total to be only about 17 million,[55] though this has been contested.[56]
In the U.S., about 28% of the population of 105 million became infected, and 500,000 to 675,000 died (0.48 to 0.64 percent of the population).[67]
Most influenza outbreaks disproportionately kill the very young and the very old, with a higher survival rate for those in-between. However, the Spanish flu pandemic resulted in a higher than expected mortality rate for young adults.[8]
Link
"The Great Influenza" is an excellent book on this subject. Link - ( New Window )
Don’t know about Wikipedia but the CDC says otherwise. Posted it yesterday and I guess it got buried but:
”The CDC estimated that between 37.4 million and 42.9 million people contracted the flu during the 2018-2019 season. Those cases led to between 531,000 and 647,000 hospitalization and 36,400-61,200 deaths. These numbers may seem high, but when stacked against previous seasons reported deaths were at a decline.“
Those Wikipedia figures seem absolutely impossible to be true. So a half million people just die as last year in the US and it’s like no one noticed?
Quote:
people than the Coronavirus. Just like SARS, Ebola, etc. people lose their mind over this stuff & go into full fledged panic.
It’s only on pace to kill 2% of the worlds population if it continues to spread.
Nothing to see here.
Once again, a misleading statement.
ER ).
In 2018-2019 60,000 + died and in 2018-2019, a particularly bad year over 80,000 died. These figures are just for the U.S. Some have pointed out that the fatality rate for coronavirus is 2.5% while for the flu its a fraction of that. Those statistics are an apples to oranges comparison. China is a hotbed for contagious illnesses, as this is the third epidemic ( that we know about ) that they've started in the last 25 years. Their citizens live in rat cages and dormitories. Their air is among the most polluted in the world which makes Chinese particularly vulnerable to respiratory illnesses. Outside of China only 18 have died, including Chinese abroad. The Diamond Princess, Japan , South Korea, Italy and Hong Kong make up the bulk of case outside of China. Doing some quick math the mortality rate is 0.7%. in the U.S its zero.
I think you are pulling your math from the same place you are pulling your comment about Chinese living in “rat cages and dormitories”.
China is a huge and diverse country and in many places the standard of living is fairly high. Despite some minor air pollution, Shanghai feels like NYC but more modern and with less of a visible rat problem. Beijing is heavily polluted but not the hovel you described. Wuhan I have never been but it was also a large city and doubt the place you believe it to be.
I’ve been to China numerous times and have found many good things, as well as undesirable and frankly disgusting practices there. However it is not that cesspool you are assuming it to be.
It is funny reading how constantly people distort facts and use statistics for their own polluted world view.
I do agree the death rate in China is overstated and the rest of the world would do better treating it. But perhaps not in containing it. Not many countries would shut down whole provinces the way China did. If it spreads beyond China’s borders in an uncontrolled way, as it is starting to in Italy and Iran, it can get scary fast
I don’t think it’s unfair to speculate that air quality might impact the outcome of an overlaid respiratory infection. I don’t know anything about general living conditions. But I did read that they were woefully unprepared wrt medical infrastructure.
Seem like Wuhan might have some pollution - ( New Window )
Hundreds of cases now in Italy, Korea and it seems it is all over Iran.
Seems to make a lot of people get sick enough to require medical intervention. I have read things say over ten percent. Ever been to an emergency room in NYC? They are very busy, if even a dozen high fever people with breathing problems show up to one ER at once needing support would be rough, picture hundreds, and all the staff starts getting it? Horrifying.
The only measure to take will be social quarantine, and I don't know if anyone is even alive today in the US knows what that is like.
Then there is the globalisation impact, China makes a lot, including medicine, the USA and China are linked, we need that country for many critical medicines and goods. What happens when nothing is being made?
Then there is this today.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/president-xi-jinping-says-coronavirus-is-communist-chinas-biggest-health-emergency
If the head of the CCP im China makes this statement. This admission of a problem, of errors made, of severity.
I think we are all screwed. Biggest event of our times.
Hope I am wrong, and a big shout out to the heroic people of China's healthcare system battling this.
That may be wrong too. Most of those who die from the flu are very young or very old.
China's production has cratered. They weren't in great shape before this, and now they've got people quarantined all over, factories shut down - the world's supply chain has been interrupted. Shipping companies are canceling shipments left and right. Commodity prices are probably right around the corner.
Even if this thing never steps foot on US soil beyond the handful of repatriated cases, we're definitely going to feel the rest of it.
Indeed. This virus had a lot of unknowns right now. So this is THE time to ramp up a national campaign, spearheaded by the government, with the intent to be safe rather than sorry. These are the types of situations where I would rather over-react than wait too long...
And not just the US either. The rest of the world.
I don’t think that’s putting it into perspective. More people get the flu but it isn’t nearly as deadly as corona virus.
Do you want you or your kids to get the common flu or the corona virus? That’s really what it comes down to and we all know what the answer is.
Quote:
deal, I apologize. That wasn't my intention. But I think it's important to keep things in perspective: more people, in all likelihood, are going to die from the flu this year than the Coronavirus & probably by a pretty big #.
I don’t think that’s putting it into perspective. More people get the flu but it isn’t nearly as deadly as corona virus.
Do you want you or your kids to get the common flu or the corona virus? That’s really what it comes down to and we all know what the answer is.
Nobody is not taking it seriously. But there is a lot of paranoid misinformation here too. In point of fact, the flu as far as we know, actually is more deadly, than Coronavirus. That may change as more info accumulates but so far,it’s true. And we absolutely should want our kids to get coronavirus rather than flu (especially if we’re one of those ignorant irresponsible parents that didn’t get their family flu shots). SARS -2 (so far) appears to hardly affect kids. It’s almost exclusively >60 year olds who are dying and most of those have underlying health conditions.
China's production has cratered. They weren't in great shape before this, and now they've got people quarantined all over, factories shut down - the world's supply chain has been interrupted. Shipping companies are canceling shipments left and right. Commodity prices are probably right around the corner.
Even if this thing never steps foot on US soil beyond the handful of repatriated cases, we're definitely going to feel the rest of it.
Absolutely.
Quote:
deal, I apologize. That wasn't my intention. But I think it's important to keep things in perspective: more people, in all likelihood, are going to die from the flu this year than the Coronavirus & probably by a pretty big #.
That may be wrong too. Most of those who die from the flu are very young or very old.
So far, since October until today >15000 Americans have been killed by the “common” flu. The number of death in the IS due to Coronavirus? Zero.
Seems like you are going out of your way to be dense about this.
Quote:
but it’s unwise to not take it seriously like some on this thread are doing, which is bizarre to me given you don’t actually have to do anything other than be aware, use common sense, and try to stay away from traveling to areas that have had reported cases.
Indeed. This virus had a lot of unknowns right now. So this is THE time to ramp up a national campaign, spearheaded by the government, with the intent to be safe rather than sorry. These are the types of situations where I would rather over-react than wait too long...
And not just the US either. The rest of the world.
I think you’re right in that we have to be aware and be prepared. It’s likely there will be a number of infections here. There are, as you said, lots of unknowns and things can change.
But, as of today, all some of us are saying is that it’s not (as others here would have you believe) the Andromeda Strain.
Seems like you are going out of your way to be dense about this.
So far there have been about 29 million flu infections this season in the US. Those kind of huge numbers?
Already ships coming in and ports with raw materials are holding back.
Already the pork and other food supplies for China is affected.
Already technical jobs in the energy and chemical industry are being offered 2-3x normal overseas temp and project work and getting no takers.
Already alternative supply chains are being evaluated and re routed.
The outbreak in Italy will only increase the number of nations that shut down trade and supply routes.
Already raw materials out of Australia, Indonesia, Chile and Peru are way way down as is trade back into those countries.
Already the flood of money needed to keep the stock market inflated has accelerated.
So while not Armegedon...we should hope warmer weather helps and mutations dont take hold before that suppression takes hold.
World economies are fragile and far more interconnected than ever before. They work on expectations and projected cash flows. Doesnt take a lot to slope an economic unwind to a tougher plateau.
Is it the crash to the depression? No. But it ain't good news
Already ships coming in and ports with raw materials are holding back.
Already the pork and other food supplies for China is affected.
Already technical jobs in the energy and chemical industry are being offered 2-3x normal overseas temp and project work and getting no takers.
Already alternative supply chains are being evaluated and re routed.
The outbreak in Italy will only increase the number of nations that shut down trade and supply routes.
Already raw materials out of Australia, Indonesia, Chile and Peru are way way down as is trade back into those countries.
Already the flood of money needed to keep the stock market inflated has accelerated.
So while not Armegedon...we should hope warmer weather helps and mutations dont take hold before that suppression takes hold.
World economies are fragile and far more interconnected than ever before. They work on expectations and projected cash flows. Doesnt take a lot to slope an economic unwind to a tougher plateau.
Is it the crash to the depression? No. But it ain't good news
Absolutely. Been saying since the beginning that it’s the economics which will be most impactful.
Did you actually get your flu shot?
Fatality rate of coronavirus: 2.3%
Coronavirus fatality rate among:
Women: 2%
Men: 3%
Age 60-69: 4%
Age 70-79: 8%
Age 80+: 15%
The percentage of sudden and violent deaths in the world over the past century including industrial accidents, traffic accidents, planes, trains and automobile deaths, wars, riots, overthrows, genocides, etc. is 2%
2% is a lot. Its 120 million people
So 2% is a very high rate. I fully agree it wont last at that rate unless the virus mutates a few times.
As it relates to economic consequences the rate does not matter as much as the length and spread.
For example, Italy buys a lot of Chinese goods. Italy is in Europe - a huge Chinese trading partner without a lot of economic reserves. North Korea with its terrible health and food could be badly affected. Indonesia, sitting on the shipping lanes to the ME and Europe...not a good thing.
Northern China is a porous border with Siberia.
Most of all, if the virus slows spring planting or hog deaths increase in the breadbasket of Southern China and SE Asia...we got problems.
Quote:
In comment 14816625 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
but it’s unwise to not take it seriously like some on this thread are doing, which is bizarre to me given you don’t actually have to do anything other than be aware, use common sense, and try to stay away from traveling to areas that have had reported cases.
Indeed. This virus had a lot of unknowns right now. So this is THE time to ramp up a national campaign, spearheaded by the government, with the intent to be safe rather than sorry. These are the types of situations where I would rather over-react than wait too long...
And not just the US either. The rest of the world.
I think you’re right in that we have to be aware and be prepared. It’s likely there will be a number of infections here. There are, as you said, lots of unknowns and things can change.
But, as of today, all some of us are saying is that it’s not (as others here would have you believe) the Andromeda Strain.
What concerns me is that in multiple countries governments and private actors are taking some reallly unusual steps that only make sense if they are scarred:
Italy cancels Venice’s carnival
Villages/towns quarantined in Italy, Iran, South Korea
Sporting events cancelled in Italy, Japan
China attempting to disinfect huge amounts of cash
These are just not steps that I’ve seen elsewhere. So, it strikes me as though people with knowledge are deeply concerned (obviously including China which has quarantined millions).
I’m not freaking out and doomsday prepping, but I’m certainly paying this attention.
interesting question. i suspect we're going to be hearing a lot about this.
Internet images videos show squads and machines spraying disinfectant all over. Standard flu protocol?
I read 1500 medical workers became ill. Doctors, some young, have died. Flu does this?
This virus is new, no one knows what is going to happen. Supply chains, including for critical goods, may become affected. The CDC warned of inevtible spread in the US. Talking of possibly having to close schools and businesses. Flu?
According to data from China, certainly under reported, has ten percent or more of people needing medical intervention like oxygen. Ten percent at least! This is something to think about. Thjs will be many many people needing a hospital and I know for a stone cold fact NYC has no chance of meeting this demand. How will people react when their loved ones can't get any treatment? Flu? The flu has already taxed the public health system, add in this new virus. Not good.
No one is slightly concerned that the Chinese president admitted they made mistakes? That it was a danger. That means they are scared shitless to me if they admit wrong doing. Their default is to hide the truth and portray constant image of strength.
Look at the expoential growth now in S Korea, lets watch Italy. God knows what is going on in Iran. Why would it not spread like wildfire here in the US and have an unknowable impact on social order.
I hope the Virus is not that virulent as it spreads, the Virus is in control now and frankly we could all be in for a problem of biblical proportions.
I tend to think the actual impact in the US will be negligible and coronavirus is way down the list of things I’m worried about. And I live in New York and ride the subway every day.
Or who knows maybe it’ll be a global pandemic and we’ll all be dead in six months. We’ll see. Can’t worry about it.
Spiking the death rate to 3.4%.
Futures are down nearly 700 as of 0730 this morning.
There is no containment, it is out and spreading and no one on Earth knows what will happen.
If there was a functional government response, an oxymoron in and of itself, there would be an admission this virus can not be contained and education would begin on what civic duties and day to day habits needed to mitigate its spread.
There would be full scale operations to increase accurate and fast testing capabilities (The CDC's first tests were crap which is a sad joke and indictment on the USA) and to increase the capacity to deliver oxygen and other services needed to treat the high number who seem to get very ill from this. The current healthcare system will collapse in under a week if hit with hundreds or thousands needing oxygen. Not to mention those already in hospitals needing care. There should be facilities planned out and equipped to prepare for this deluge of sick.
None of this is happening.
The hubris of our society will soon be coming home to roost. No one alive, even the experts, can envision thousands sick at once all over the US powered by the expoential growth of the virus. Just picture your local ER, minute clinic, Doctor's office or hospital having to suddenly treat hundreds nd then thousands all at once. Then the health-care workers themselves get sick? This is a big fucking problem and as far as I can tell there has been no official educated communication to the American people, there has been no preparation at the frontline health-care level at all. Expoential growth will ensure that it will be too late once the many are getting sick. I wish the government was like it is portrayed in movies. Skilled, driven by expert opinion, motivated and fast. It is nothing like that in real life, a clown show, this is not an indictment on the many good people who serve, but the government as a whole.
SKorea started testing everyone with flu symptoms and in a week they have nearly a 1000 cases (the US currently cant match their testing volume and speed) , no one was talking about Italy and they have nearly 400 cases and the guy from China they thought was patient zero didnt even have the virus. Iran has admitted it may be all over the country and just five days ago no one was talking about Iran.
This thing is likely in America and elsewhere already. Hopefully there are many unknown cases which means the percentage of those sick or dying from it is actually lower since there is no known number overall.
Maybe I am being crazy, but one thing is for sure, no one knows what is going to happen.
I agree. People can compare this to the flu all they want - no government takes these kinds of measures to prevent the spread of the flu. I don't pretend to be particularly knowledgeable about epidemiology or anything, but we're seeing some rather extreme reactions from people who do have experts advising them.
The combination of Lebanon and Italy is essentially signaling the Mediterranean is criss-crossed and in play.
And Singapore is astride the narrow choke point of the biggest trade shipping lane in the world.
The disease does not have to be proven deadly for insurance companies to raise rates on shipping companies and banks to raise rates on factoring inventory between these points or on warehouses at high volume harbors. Or crews to not sign up for certain routes or harbor loading/unloading absent much higher rates of pay
Quote:
What concerns me is that in multiple countries governments and private actors are taking some reallly unusual steps that only make sense if they are scarred:
I agree. People can compare this to the flu all they want - no government takes these kinds of measures to prevent the spread of the flu. I don't pretend to be particularly knowledgeable about epidemiology or anything, but we're seeing some rather extreme reactions from people who do have experts advising them.
Don’t forget you’re comparing the response of year one of something not
Fully known to over a hundred years of broad exposure and response.
Quote:
this is really terrifying. I think the time to contain this has passed and the WHO and other orgs have to start shifting to mitigatoin.
There is no containment, it is out and spreading and no one on Earth knows what will happen.
If there was a functional government response, an oxymoron in and of itself, there would be an admission this virus can not be contained and education would begin on what civic duties and day to day habits needed to mitigate its spread.
There would be full scale operations to increase accurate and fast testing capabilities (The CDC's first tests were crap which is a sad joke and indictment on the USA) and to increase the capacity to deliver oxygen and other services needed to treat the high number who seem to get very ill from this. The current healthcare system will collapse in under a week if hit with hundreds or thousands needing oxygen. Not to mention those already in hospitals needing care. There should be facilities planned out and equipped to prepare for this deluge of sick.
None of this is happening.
The hubris of our society will soon be coming home to roost. No one alive, even the experts, can envision thousands sick at once all over the US powered by the expoential growth of the virus. Just picture your local ER, minute clinic, Doctor's office or hospital having to suddenly treat hundreds nd then thousands all at once. Then the health-care workers themselves get sick? This is a big fucking problem and as far as I can tell there has been no official educated communication to the American people, there has been no preparation at the frontline health-care level at all. Expoential growth will ensure that it will be too late once the many are getting sick. I wish the government was like it is portrayed in movies. Skilled, driven by expert opinion, motivated and fast. It is nothing like that in real life, a clown show, this is not an indictment on the many good people who serve, but the government as a whole.
SKorea started testing everyone with flu symptoms and in a week they have nearly a 1000 cases (the US currently cant match their testing volume and speed) , no one was talking about Italy and they have nearly 400 cases and the guy from China they thought was patient zero didnt even have the virus. Iran has admitted it may be all over the country and just five days ago no one was talking about Iran.
This thing is likely in America and elsewhere already. Hopefully there are many unknown cases which means the percentage of those sick or dying from it is actually lower since there is no known number overall.
Maybe I am being crazy, but one thing is for sure, no one knows what is going to happen.
I don't think you are crazy. Here's the thing - the Chinese have been through this before. So they would seem to be the most practiced at this. But they are nowhere near getting their arms around this thing. I read where they now think this is going to take "months" to settle. Months? That could be two, three, six...whatever. And has been explained many times, who the hell trusts anything they say with their history of manipulation and deceit?
As a country, we have always had the advantage of having two massive oceans between us and most of the rest of the world. I think we are getting closer and closer to the point of having to maximize that advantage. Global economy be damned for a little while...
hahaI know it sounds nuts, but these events concern me very much
Link - ( New Window )