For defense, Giants had the 6th highest QB hits last season, 14th highest pressure rate but was only 22nd in sacks.
Our top 3 in pressures was Markus Golden (44 in 16 games), Lorenzo Carter (22 in 15 games) and Leonard Williams (17 in 8 games).
One thing I found interesting comparing Leonard Williams and Cameron Heyward (who was a First Team All-Pro this year):
Since joining the Giants, Leonard Williams had more hurries, QB hits and pressures per game than Cameron Heyward. Of course the biggest difference is the 0.5 sacks vs 9 sacks.
If Leonard Williams could ever translate those pressures into sacks, we got ourselves a first-team all-pro capable here.
Heyward has a lot more help around him (not a coincidence Watt and Dupree also had good seasons) so pairing Williams with someone on the other side who is elite is vital. Not surprisingly his best season was his second year and him having both Wilkerson and Richardson. It isn't some great mystery why he's never been able to get his, there's never been much reason to worry about anyone else, sack leaders while he was on the Jets:
• 2015 - Wilkerson had 12
• 2016 - Him at 7, next had 4.5
• 2017 - Demario Davis, 5 (Richardson gone)
• 2018 - Jenkins and Anderson had 7
That makes Markus Golden the most productive OLB Williams has ever played next to. I don't think there's anyone in NY who wants Yannick more than Williams.
Jets have never had edge pass rushers that would take pressure off him. At the time of the trade he was the 8th most doubled interior lineman in the league. Tomlinson was 7th and even just that bit of help saw his pressure rate sky rocket as a Giant. Non coincidentally when Richardson and Wilkerson were on the DL with him is when he hit 7 sacks at age 22, then both were traded the last few years and things only got harder
It's called confirmation bias. Your established view is that everything g is a look ways wrong so you will find evidence in everything and disregard anything positive to confirm your own biased view to yourself.
The worst part is that you lack all self awareness and position yourself as an expert.
You're terps 2.0
I freely admit I don't trust much with Gettleman. I didn't like his hiring, based less on merit and more on once being a member of the Jints Central establishment, and struggle to see much difference between his work and the work of his predecessor. So I absolutely scrutinize every single move. Guilty.
But are you suggesting that the acquisition of LW is a no-brainer and any criticism is unwarranted?
Love this take.
Are you sure it wasn't Daniel Jones that cost us Chase Young instead? After all, did he really have to go out and win his first two starts. What a selfish player.
HAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA
Jets were 1-6 with him,giving up 27 points per game and 6-3 without him, giving up 19 points per game.
And the Jets, not the Giants, have the 68th pick in the 2020 draft.
Ooof. Embarrassing.
Hell yes, he does a lot of things well, and he never takes a play off.
That's weird, the NFL seemed to determine that he was a DE when they assigned his 5th year option salary. And then the Giants played him, at least nominally, at DE.
IDL do get sacks. And Williams is not bereft of pass rush skills, so his lack of sacks should not be dismissed - it's not that he's simply asked to stay home and ride his man up and down the line to occupy a blocker - he does rush the passer, and he actually generates more than his fair share of pressures. But for whatever reason, he doesn't get home to make the sack.
You can't cause a fumble by almost getting there, you don't alter a throw that results in an interception.
These are the plays that define greatness. Can't be almost great.
Witness Tom Bradys remarks after the 2007 super bowl.
As just one example among many.
Witness the NYG under Belichek getting in Jim.Kelleys sight lines to win in 1990.
Desirability of disrupting QB footwork and clock and sight is as old as football
Once the 2008 Cleveland Browns showed the NFL that Eli was in particular suboptimal when unable to plant going forward into his throw given pressure up the middle - many of the better teams copied the strategy for years in important games.
Sorry...an example of how eagerness to argue against William's and DG leads to making arguments contrary to a strategy used by DC's since DL units like the Rams or Bob Lilly Cowboys or the Alan Page Purple People Eaters or the Iron Curtain or the 85 Bears or the whole strategy of Jim Johnson of the Eagles.
Pressure up the middle regardless of sacks to
alter QB foot time or arm arc distortion is valuable to many good defenses.
Even more so against teams who get the ball out quickly.
Pressure up the middle matters. Now, will he be worth the contract price? None of us will know until he is halfway through the contract.
Imo
But not at $15M/yr or more. And some have mentioned $17M possibly. That's just insane to me. I don't understand the notion that 20-sack perennial all-pros are only worth a few million more than serviceable starters. LW is somewhere dead smack in the middle between a perennial all-pro and a decent bench player. His salary should also be dead smack in the middle between the two.
Once the 2008 Cleveland Browns showed the NFL that Eli was in particular suboptimal when unable to plant going forward into his throw given pressure up the middle - many of the better teams copied the strategy for years in important games.
Sorry...an example of how eagerness to argue against William's and DG leads to making arguments contrary to a strategy used by DC's since DL units like the Rams or Bob Lilly Cowboys or the Alan Page Purple People Eaters or the Iron Curtain or the 85 Bears or the whole strategy of Jim Johnson of the Eagles.
Pressure up the middle regardless of sacks to
alter QB foot time or arm arc distortion is valuable to many good defenses.
Even more so against teams who get the ball out quickly.
Pressure up the middle matters. Now, will he be worth the contract price? None of us will know until he is halfway through the contract.
Imo
Pressure up the middle doesn't matter if it comes after the QB has had 3.5+ seconds to throw....
Quick pressure up the middle matters. Quick pressure is disruptive, changes footwork, changes arm angles etc... Almost pressure several seconds into the play... Hmmm not so much.
"I was there too"
The chart you showed illustrates a different analysis. Misdirection.
The QB sees pressure and adjusts long before any throw...is one unconsidered factor.
The other is that after citing 3.5 seconds you showed nothing about William's and time.
The main point is that the analysis of time and space and throwing planes in a pocket is a unit measure. The unit pressure is what matters and I dont know how this data is available except via film and guys who know what to look for.
I doubt you have the data or the knowledge of line play to analyze this the way we hope Graham is in recent weeks.
The emphasis is on discussion not winning debates. It's not combat and we out here dont have enough data to have closing arguments.
You made a dismissive point as if it was conclusively beyond doubt. Its not conclusion was the counter point.
The chart kinda implies he is the best available talent for this at this time for this team? Not at any price...but not easy to get either.
You would have to add in their role on each play and the run defense comparisons to get an actual pay vs performance comparison. That's not an invitation to go add more charts. You dont have dismissive level support for your original dismissive opinion. You can boil the ocean and that would still be true. I dont either...so all I do is avoid certainty.
Strangely, there is a limit to my support of this acquisition, so I dont mean to be fighting for William's as a better player that he is.
My point is that one sided dismissal of his potential to be part of a meaningfully better unit is not available so a good analyst doesnt claim a conclusion is possible.
You dont like the Giants acquiring William's. That's cool. It has some supporting factoids. So does the opposite opinion. Its just an opinion. Guys who think differently on the subject arent making a comment about you, nor is it personal, nor are they inferior. Different opinions on the subject are understandable.
That's my only point to you.
Stay well.
Or does he go out on the market and come to the Giants' offer of $12 mil?
+1
Maybe he doesnt care about the risk of being injured while on a franchise tag? Many players hate the threat of a franchise tag for exactly that reason and desire a guarantee of something as soon as they can in their career.
Maybe the new coaches are in shrug mode about his potential. Or excited about it. Or think if they played Williams differently then Lawrence would be a wrecking ball. Or think that if there was a linebacker or fs the opposing OL had to consider then there would be less double teaming on someone. I have no idea.
Maybe his family likes the area or really wants a warmer climate if they can get it.
All of these unknowns are actually sizable enough to sway the NYG and William's into different positions and border lines.
One of the frustrations of being a fan is that you dont know until it plays out months and years later. Just a fact of the landscape.
Williams is much more in the column of players who will help the team win a championship than not. He's not the type of player who's your best if you aspire to win a championship, that's OK.
Under pressure is the most consistent factor to predict lower quarterback rating, year after year. It's never a bad thing, even if they all aren't created equal.
Per the player's mouth he considers himself among the best interior lineman. Transition tag him, let a competitive bidding process prove or disprove.
Unless you’re an outlier like Donald, a combination of DT and DE skills, which LW isn’t, I’d rather have the DTs who plug space and can hold the point of attack. And right now it’s easier than ever to find those. So spending big cap dollars on a commodity position makes les and less sense...
The chart kinda implies he is the best available talent for this at this time for this team? Not at any price...but not easy to get either.
You would have to add in their role on each play and the run defense comparisons to get an actual pay vs performance comparison. That's not an invitation to go add more charts. You dont have dismissive level support for your original dismissive opinion. You can boil the ocean and that would still be true. I dont either...so all I do is avoid certainty.
Strangely, there is a limit to my support of this acquisition, so I dont mean to be fighting for William's as a better player that he is.
My point is that one sided dismissal of his potential to be part of a meaningfully better unit is not available so a good analyst doesnt claim a conclusion is possible.
You dont like the Giants acquiring William's. That's cool. It has some supporting factoids. So does the opposite opinion. Its just an opinion. Guys who think differently on the subject arent making a comment about you, nor is it personal, nor are they inferior. Different opinions on the subject are understandable.
That's my only point to you.
Stay well.
Tomlinson appears to be listed more favorably within the top right quadrant, which is presumably where you'd like your DL to reside in this sort of analysis, with the presumption that with pass-rushing success, double-teams will naturally follow.
It's interesting that Tomlinson is well ahead of Williams in double-teams. Part of that, I'm sure, is that DT lines up on the nose, where he's much more likely to get double-teamed simply as a result of the relative positioning. But to those who suggest that LW is freeing up others to make a play, that may be true with edge players not listed here, but it's not apparent that he's drawing attention away from his teammates along the DL.
It would be interesting, for me at least, to see where Tomlinson was on this chart before/after Williams arrival. That would certainly make a strong argument for the dynamic value of LW, which, in absence of any data to confirm it, has generally felt like something that some fans simply throw out there intuitively but don't have anything to back it up.
The converse is true as well.
Since Golden is about effort and not first step, I wouldn't sign Williams before an edge talent in the stable.
And my conclusion is that the trade for Williams most made sense when Chase was in sight via the draft. That scenario with Lawrence as well was sound thinking. But that scenario went away with a late season win. Imo.
A statistical rarity on BBI
Giants have already given up their 3rd round pick in the 2020 draft for LW.
Whether LW is re-signed only affects whether the 2021 pick given up is a 4th or a 5th.
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I would let Williams walk rather than surrender a 4th round draft pick by resigning him. The Giants have too many holes and there's no guarantee Williams will be better than a player selected in the 4th round of this year's draft.
Giants have already given up their 3rd round pick in the 2020 draft for LW.
Whether LW is re-signed only affects whether the 2021 pick given up is a 4th or a 5th.
You're right, shyster. I had the wrong year in which the Giants would lose the 4th round pick.
Maybe he doesnt care about the risk of being injured while on a franchise tag? Many players hate the threat of a franchise tag for exactly that reason and desire a guarantee of something as soon as they can in their career.
Maybe the new coaches are in shrug mode about his potential. Or excited about it. Or think if they played Williams differently then Lawrence would be a wrecking ball. Or think that if there was a linebacker or fs the opposing OL had to consider then there would be less double teaming on someone. I have no idea.
Maybe his family likes the area or really wants a warmer climate if they can get it.
All of these unknowns are actually sizable enough to sway the NYG and William's into different positions and border lines.
One of the frustrations of being a fan is that you dont know until it plays out months and years later. Just a fact of the landscape.
Very true.
I would imagine that Patrick Graham's plan on defense will greatly impact how the Giants are approaching their contract negotiations - a factor that DG couldn't have known at the time he made the deal.
Another thing the Giants paid to find out is what kind of person he is. Is he the kind of player you want as a part of your locker room?
He is one of the more interesting FA case studies the NFL has seen in awhile.
I look forward to seeing how it all plays out.
The chart you showed illustrates a different analysis. Misdirection.
The QB sees pressure and adjusts long before any throw...is one unconsidered factor.
The other is that after citing 3.5 seconds you showed nothing about William's and time.
The main point is that the analysis of time and space and throwing planes in a pocket is a unit measure. The unit pressure is what matters and I dont know how this data is available except via film and guys who know what to look for.
I doubt you have the data or the knowledge of line play to analyze this the way we hope Graham is in recent weeks.
The emphasis is on discussion not winning debates. It's not combat and we out here dont have enough data to have closing arguments.
You made a dismissive point as if it was conclusively beyond doubt. Its not conclusion was the counter point.
Bill, you have me kind of wrong here.
I didn't like the trade, you are correct there.
At this point, I would rather resign him than not. I would hate to go over 15 million for it, but its better to sign him.
That said, I go into it with eyes open. From watching him, I did not see a dynamic impact player. My original 3.5 sec comment was said off the cuff and with a some snark intended (what you referred to as dismissive was really snark, which is something I do, and probably does not translate well to a message board, oh well). But the main point remains, he is a guy who was in the mix, he wasn't a guy making sacks on his own, hitting the QB, and being generally disruptive.
After I made the snarky comment, I thought, hey there is a metric for this PRWR. So I went and posted the chart (it was more of an afterthought, had it been forethought I would not have made the 3.5 sec comment to begin with). Again, that said, the chart does pretty much confirm what my eyes saw in that he wasn't getting quick pressure, and as it turns out not even taking the bulk of the double teams (granted it would be nice to know the pre vs. post Giant breakdown) Quick pressure is what is disruptive. But also note, that yes, that chart mixes him in with 4-3 DTs... He was not placed on the chart for Edge Rushers... On that chart, his production would look silly. And yet he did play 3 - 4 DE most of the time...
If there are other players flushing the QB, I would bet that LW's sack numbers would increase dramatically as he would seem to be a guy in position to get the cleanup sacks. Those are good, but not quite as impactful.
There is zero doubt that the Giants need something better from the edge though. But even as a 3 - 4 DE,
I had a longer reply about evaluating units ( especially the DL and maybe the Ol unit) more than individuals) but my connection jumped the shark exactly as I was prepared to hit send.
We agree on a lot of the same conclusions regarding Williams as an investment. Absent a better edge player and better LB's and Safeties, there is not the cross multiplier effects that lifts the unit performance high enough
Do note the combination of a pretty good edge rusher (Golden) and disruptive interior linemen (Williams, Lawrence) was an active pass rush, but ultimately a really bad defense.
If it all possible I'd like the Giants to upgrade both Golden and Williams if top dollar is spent.
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
You signed up to post that?
Quote:
is better and has more upside than any Interior DL in this draft.
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
You signed up to post that?
Gettleman's computer fellas hard at work...
2. Williams is a good player . Nobody is contesting that . But I think Tomlinson , Lawrence & Williams are redundant . If Mr G pays the face-saving ransom, he will still need to address Corner (2 players) , S (I don’t see Peppers . Maybe I’m wrong ) ILB & Edge . That’s quite a bit , especially when you consider that he almost certainly needs LOT & a real
Center .
I know guys like Dunk & Bobby Montana , whom I both deeply respect , are on board with Gettleman . Count me out . He’s benefited from going early in the draft . His trades and free -agent signings have been awful . He’s a charlatan , a big mouth who went for the coffee early in his career, hanging around some truly talented people , trying to sound like them .
Quote:
is better and has more upside than any Interior DL in this draft.
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
You signed up to post that?
What's wrong with what he posted?
Someone can't sign up if they have a differing opinion than yours?
Quote:
In comment 14817885 KVRHzolklo6 said:
Quote:
is better and has more upside than any Interior DL in this draft.
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
You signed up to post that?
What's wrong with what he posted?
Someone can't sign up if they have a differing opinion than yours?
This.
+1
2. Williams is a good player . Nobody is contesting that . But I think Tomlinson , Lawrence & Williams are redundant . If Mr G pays the face-saving ransom, he will still need to address Corner (2 players) , S (I don’t see Peppers . Maybe I’m wrong ) ILB & Edge . That’s quite a bit , especially when you consider that he almost certainly needs LOT & a real
Center .
I know guys like Dunk & Bobby Montana , whom I both deeply respect , are on board with Gettleman . Count me out . He’s benefited from going early in the draft . His trades and free -agent signings have been awful . He’s a charlatan , a big mouth who went for the coffee early in his career, hanging around some truly talented people , trying to sound like them .
LW is an Interior DL, not an EDGE. You IDLs by pressures, not sacks.
Quote:
is better and has more upside than any Interior DL in this draft.
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
You signed up to post that?
I signed up to post here.
Is that a crime?
Quote:
In comment 14817885 KVRHzolklo6 said:
Quote:
is better and has more upside than any Interior DL in this draft.
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
You signed up to post that?
What's wrong with what he posted?
Someone can't sign up if they have a differing opinion than yours?
It has nothing to do with him having a different opinion. Just watch - you'll see it when you see it. He's not actually new.
2. Williams is a good player . Nobody is contesting that . But I think Tomlinson , Lawrence & Williams are redundant . If Mr G pays the face-saving ransom, he will still need to address Corner (2 players) , S (I don’t see Peppers . Maybe I’m wrong ) ILB & Edge . That’s quite a bit , especially when you consider that he almost certainly needs LOT & a real
Center .
I know guys like Dunk & Bobby Montana , whom I both deeply respect , are on board with Gettleman . Count me out . He’s benefited from going early in the draft . His trades and free -agent signings have been awful . He’s a charlatan , a big mouth who went for the coffee early in his career, hanging around some truly talented people , trying to sound like them .
Easy there, Retro - I'm FAR from on board with Gettleman. If anything, I'm more aligned with your opinion of him.
Quote:
In comment 14817905 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14817885 KVRHzolklo6 said:
Quote:
is better and has more upside than any Interior DL in this draft.
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
You signed up to post that?
What's wrong with what he posted?
Someone can't sign up if they have a differing opinion than yours?
It has nothing to do with him having a different opinion. Just watch - you'll see it when you see it. He's not actually new.
Who the hell cares? He has a legit point that you may not agree with but how does that result in you claiming he's a dupe?
Quote:
1 Pressures are not sacks . Nobody cares about how many pressures Lawrence Taylor had.
2. Williams is a good player . Nobody is contesting that . But I think Tomlinson , Lawrence & Williams are redundant . If Mr G pays the face-saving ransom, he will still need to address Corner (2 players) , S (I don’t see Peppers . Maybe I’m wrong ) ILB & Edge . That’s quite a bit , especially when you consider that he almost certainly needs LOT & a real
Center .
I know guys like Dunk & Bobby Montana , whom I both deeply respect , are on board with Gettleman . Count me out . He’s benefited from going early in the draft . His trades and free -agent signings have been awful . He’s a charlatan , a big mouth who went for the coffee early in his career, hanging around some truly talented people , trying to sound like them .
Easy there, Retro - I'm FAR from on board with Gettleman. If anything, I'm more aligned with your opinion of him.
We need to get beers when I get back to Rochester Retro..Miss your posts buddy!
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In comment 14817983 montanagiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14817905 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14817885 KVRHzolklo6 said:
Quote:
is better and has more upside than any Interior DL in this draft.
Leonard Williams >>> Derrick Brown, easily.
Williams has played with 0 quality EDGE players with the Jets + Giants. You put a dangerous EDGE next to Williams....WATCH OUT!
You signed up to post that?
What's wrong with what he posted?
Someone can't sign up if they have a differing opinion than yours?
It has nothing to do with him having a different opinion. Just watch - you'll see it when you see it. He's not actually new.
Who the hell cares? He has a legit point that you may not agree with but how does that result in you claiming he's a dupe?
Because I've read his other posts already. It's not this post that told me he's a dupe. This one just happened to be on the thread I was already on at the time.