You really think NYC is going to be on lockdown sometime soon because of this?
Can it wait until fishing season? I can self-quarantine myself for the entirety of striped bass season. You know, for the good of humanity and all that.
There are a few posters on this thread who may not have...
from what I understand most of the people dying are older people with other issues
probably a 99% survival rate here in US if you are between 15-65
Not to minimize but this isnt ebola
Mortality rate is 2%. For the flu, it's 1%.
I agree....we absolutely need to take it seriously, but there will be a vaccine, treatments will get better, and people will not be dying in the streets. Long term, we will be fine, and later this year we'll be saying "Coronavirus, what was that? Oh yeah..."
Isn't flu .01%?
In the US, yes. Worldwide, it's higher. Trying to find the stats.
Not to make emotional decisions in the stock market. 2000 points isn't that big a percentage either. Market is due for a correction. If it goes down more than consider if it is an opportunity to buy.
is the biggest event of our lifetimes. There will be the world before the virus, and the world after.
The virus is out spreading throughout the world. It has proven to be highly contagious. Humans are a virgin population for it. It causes at least 10 percent to need medical intervention. Let that number sink in. The US healthcare system, which has been bolstered in no way over the past few weeks, will collapse in two weeks when inundated with thousands of people suffering from pneumonia. Then, after that the health care workers will get sick themselves. It will collapse in cities with frightening speed. There will be triage of those dying. Who gets the care?
China, shut down their country to try and stop it. The stock markets is down because the second largest economy in the world has shut down. The Chinese took draconian measures to quarantine. They did not do this and risk their economy for the flu. They did it because it is ravaging their people and spreading. No one knows the truth of what is happening in Wuhan and China due to their modern day Internet Berlin Wall. Any numbers from China regarding this virus should be multipled. The CCP did admit they made errors to their people. This fact actually scares me more than anything else, for them to admit fault means they are scared shitless.
The virus is now in South Korea one thousand cases strong. It is in Italy and spreading throughout Europe. It is all over Iran, and no one even knew. Their own health minister has it, an MP from the capital has it, the religious sites in Qom and other pilgramige areas are still open. It is in Iraq, it is in Afghanistan.
It is a fucking pandemic.
Then there is our country, the USA,what a fucking joke. We can't even test for the virus on a mass scale here. The CDC tests were fucking faulty. There is a near certain chance the virus is already spreading locally and we dont even know why because the CDC is apparently incompetent. This is a big fucking problem that has been obvious for days and today there is a Washington Post article. Very soon this virus will start popping up all over the country.
The virus is in control now. Hopefully everyone is still talking Giants football in a few months, but I think this is the big one. DOW down 2000 two days? Hopefully that will be our biggest problem.
This post reads like the opening monologue from "The Outer Limits". Please stand by...
RE: There are a few posters on this thread who may not have...
The CDC is warning that affected communities will experience severe disruption of their lives, in the USA.
Nobody knows full what will happen. Perhaps it will fall into a seasonal cycle. It is more deadly than the flu, and less deadly than SARS, but it spreads at a rate somewhere in the middle. It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined. It is spreading in very disparate countries from South Korea to Europe and Iran, and who knows what will happen in countries with high population densities and poor healthcare. Public health officials do not know the surge capacity of our own health care system.
I am not being doomsday, it is just that it is going to spread, the lethality in that in the US is not currently known and may be lower than the 2% in China, but this is a big deal.
I don’t know much about stock valuation but this is a significant world health event. POTUS tweeted that the virus is fully contained, but this will need to be walked back. It is a tough call figuring out who is glib, reassuring, realistic or alarmist, but the biology of the thing isn’t really known.
largest economy are quarantined. This shit *is* out of a bad horror movie.
Again - it's not tremendously fatal (although while we're at it, I'd rather not have to deal with a sickness that could be caught like a cold but has a 2% chance of killing someone). But since January, and extending now into what will soon be March, factories have been shut down.
Car parts, cell phones - so much of the world is dependent on China making crap and then the rest of the world reselling it. China hasn't been making anything - not replacement parts, not car parts, not computers, televisions, or anything else. If it goes on much longer - with all these economies so tightly wound - how does it not do serious damage to the world's economy and our stock market as a result?
Again - it's not tremendously fatal (although while we're at it, I'd rather not have to deal with a sickness that could be caught like a cold but has a 2% chance of killing someone). But since January, and extending now into what will soon be March, factories have been shut down.
It does not have a 2% chance of killing everyone that catches it. That 2% or 3% is total. Likely higher % in elderly or the very young. And extremely low in the 18 to 60 y/o range.
from what I understand most of the people dying are older people with other issues
probably a 99% survival rate here in US if you are between 15-65
Not to minimize but this isnt ebola
Mortality rate is 2%. For the flu, it's 1%.
I agree....we absolutely need to take it seriously, but there will be a vaccine, treatments will get better, and people will not be dying in the streets. Long term, we will be fine, and later this year we'll be saying "Coronavirus, what was that? Oh yeah..."
Good post. Want to add in though What’s the mortality rate in China vs other places. Let’s not gloss over that daft. There have been about 80,000. cases world wide. It will go up but how dangerous this is I still a huge Unknown. We will learn. I work in this sector and sell equipment used on patients who get seriously ill and wind up in the ICU due to issues related to sepsis. Will be interesting as it’s already been a bad flu season.
The devil is in The details. Again w China I’d literally throw out every bit of data. There’s a reason they don’t want anyone going in and reviewing the situation. It like they care about their people.
But hey. Never let a crisis go to waste as they say. There’s money to be made in panicking people.
largest economy are quarantined. This shit *is* out of a bad horror movie.
Again - it's not tremendously fatal (although while we're at it, I'd rather not have to deal with a sickness that could be caught like a cold but has a 2% chance of killing someone). But since January, and extending now into what will soon be March, factories have been shut down.
Car parts, cell phones - so much of the world is dependent on China making crap and then the rest of the world reselling it. China hasn't been making anything - not replacement parts, not car parts, not computers, televisions, or anything else. If it goes on much longer - with all these economies so tightly wound - how does it not do serious damage to the world's economy and our stock market as a result?
I think I read where China is the biggest producer - for the US, at least - of penicillin.
RE: RE: Factories are shut down - workers in the world's 2nd
largest economy are quarantined. This shit *is* out of a bad horror movie.
Again - it's not tremendously fatal (although while we're at it, I'd rather not have to deal with a sickness that could be caught like a cold but has a 2% chance of killing someone). But since January, and extending now into what will soon be March, factories have been shut down.
Car parts, cell phones - so much of the world is dependent on China making crap and then the rest of the world reselling it. China hasn't been making anything - not replacement parts, not car parts, not computers, televisions, or anything else. If it goes on much longer - with all these economies so tightly wound - how does it not do serious damage to the world's economy and our stock market as a result?
I think I read where China is the biggest producer - for the US, at least - of penicillin.
Yep. Heard the US does not produce penicillin any longer. Not profitable..we don't produce medical morphine, either.
from what I understand most of the people dying are older people with other issues
probably a 99% survival rate here in US if you are between 15-65
Not to minimize but this isnt ebola
Mortality rate is 2%. For the flu, it's 1%.
I agree....we absolutely need to take it seriously, but there will be a vaccine, treatments will get better, and people will not be dying in the streets. Long term, we will be fine, and later this year we'll be saying "Coronavirus, what was that? Oh yeah..."
Good post. Want to add in though What’s the mortality rate in China vs other places. Let’s not gloss over that daft. There have been about 80,000. cases world wide. It will go up but how dangerous this is I still a huge Unknown. We will learn. I work in this sector and sell equipment used on patients who get seriously ill and wind up in the ICU due to issues related to sepsis. Will be interesting as it’s already been a bad flu season.
The devil is in The details. Again w China I’d literally throw out every bit of data. There’s a reason they don’t want anyone going in and reviewing the situation. It like they care about their people.
But hey. Never let a crisis go to waste as they say. There’s money to be made in panicking people.
I don’t think the CDC is inciting panic or profiting from it, their warnings are measured and line up with the current uncertainties in the science. BTW, seasonal flu has a mortality of 0.1%, 20X less than current estimates for COVID-19.
It would be nice if we could lower that average in the US, but my fear it is going to cause real problems in countries with high population densities and weak health care practices.
To me it is in the sense that this uncharted waters biologically, economically, politically and everything else.
No one knows what is going to happen. Globalization itself, the world order, is sick from the virus just like many people are. China is producing nothing, this thread was started as an economic thread.
To me it is in the sense that this uncharted waters biologically, economically, politically and everything else.
No one knows what is going to happen. Globalization itself, the world order, is sick from the virus just like many people are. China is producing nothing, this thread was started as an economic thread.
This virus is controlling world events.
If it is not terrorism it has to be something else. Hey, WTF, plague is back in Cali!
That China may be underreporting it, especially in the beginning
CCP is almost certainly underreporting the number of cases and total fatalities. Not sure if the actual fatality rates are higher. They also appear to only count deaths in hospitals/quarantine centers. They aren’t welding apartment shut and locking down cities for 2,000 deaths. That number is far higher imo.
To be fair, it’s almost impossible for any country regardless of governance to gain an accurate case count. No country has an accurate test in place, nor the quantity nor the facilities to analyze the results. CDC/WHO should be assessing respiratory claims by countries. I have little confidence in the leadership of either institutions and those entities which control them, unfortunately.
We need to keep an eye on the freer societies for more accurate information particularly South Korea and Singapore over the next week.
we have travel guard, thank god. will make a decision a couple weeks prior to see where it is at. Wife disappointed but not looking to waste 7k with half the country under lockdown etc
I do not to mess up your evening, but read your policy exclusions. We are going to Italy at end of April. We have Allianz travel insurance, but my friend has Travelguard. Epidemics are excluded from coverage. Since we are taking a tour through AAA, they are now offering the March travel people to reschedule their trip without penalty. The only other recourse I see, if things are still bad in May, is to have some kind of personal or family illness
That China may be underreporting it, especially in the beginning
CCP is almost certainly underreporting the number of cases and total fatalities. Not sure if the actual fatality rates are higher. They also appear to only count deaths in hospitals/quarantine centers. They aren’t welding apartment shut and locking down cities for 2,000 deaths. That number is far higher imo.
To be fair, it’s almost impossible for any country regardless of governance to gain an accurate case count. No country has an accurate test in place, nor the quantity nor the facilities to analyze the results. CDC/WHO should be assessing respiratory claims by countries. I have little confidence in the leadership of either institutions and those entities which control them, unfortunately.
We need to keep an eye on the freer societies for more accurate information particularly South Korea and Singapore over the next week.
They were undervalued before and many are just ridiculous now. My favorite is ET. 10+% distribution with 1.9x coverage, DCF growing, major projects coming on line, huge presence in LNG which will power all the electric plants we will need for clean energy, ridiculously low price.
I have similar coverage. I am not sure it matters who cancels the trip as far as travel insurance. When you got the policy, there is a detailed description of what is covered and what is excludes. I suggest reviewing it, and then contact your travel agent to get clarification. I am only suggesting being prepared ahead of time so you know what is covered and what isn’t. Probably by May, it might not make a difference anyway.
we have travel guard, thank god. will make a decision a couple weeks prior to see where it is at. Wife disappointed but not looking to waste 7k with half the country under lockdown etc
Me too ...
of course we are hoping its contained enough in 8 weeks
The CDC is warning that affected communities will experience severe disruption of their lives, in the USA.
Nobody knows full what will happen. Perhaps it will fall into a seasonal cycle. It is more deadly than the flu, and less deadly than SARS, but it spreads at a rate somewhere in the middle. It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined. It is spreading in very disparate countries from South Korea to Europe and Iran, and who knows what will happen in countries with high population densities and poor healthcare. Public health officials do not know the surge capacity of our own health care system.
I am not being doomsday, it is just that it is going to spread, the lethality in that in the US is not currently known and may be lower than the 2% in China, but this is a big deal.
I don’t know much about stock valuation but this is a significant world health event. POTUS tweeted that the virus is fully contained, but this will need to be walked back. It is a tough call figuring out who is glib, reassuring, realistic or alarmist, but the biology of the thing isn’t really known. Useful scientific article, but all these reviews are dated by the time they appear... - ( New Window )
"Potus Tweeted that the virus is fully contained" - Not sure why you included this.
We need adults weighing in on this, not the POTUS.
RE: RE: The CDC says the Coronavirus will spread within the US
The CDC is warning that affected communities will experience severe disruption of their lives, in the USA.
Nobody knows full what will happen. Perhaps it will fall into a seasonal cycle. It is more deadly than the flu, and less deadly than SARS, but it spreads at a rate somewhere in the middle. It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined. It is spreading in very disparate countries from South Korea to Europe and Iran, and who knows what will happen in countries with high population densities and poor healthcare. Public health officials do not know the surge capacity of our own health care system.
I am not being doomsday, it is just that it is going to spread, the lethality in that in the US is not currently known and may be lower than the 2% in China, but this is a big deal.
I don’t know much about stock valuation but this is a significant world health event. POTUS tweeted that the virus is fully contained, but this will need to be walked back. It is a tough call figuring out who is glib, reassuring, realistic or alarmist, but the biology of the thing isn’t really known. Useful scientific article, but all these reviews are dated by the time they appear... - ( New Window )
"Potus Tweeted that the virus is fully contained" - Not sure why you included this.
We need adults weighing in on this, not the POTUS.
GUA, be careful with the political stuff. Mods don't want any of that stuff on here
The CDC is warning that affected communities will experience severe disruption of their lives, in the USA.
Nobody knows full what will happen. Perhaps it will fall into a seasonal cycle. It is more deadly than the flu, and less deadly than SARS, but it spreads at a rate somewhere in the middle. It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined. It is spreading in very disparate countries from South Korea to Europe and Iran, and who knows what will happen in countries with high population densities and poor healthcare. Public health officials do not know the surge capacity of our own health care system.
I am not being doomsday, it is just that it is going to spread, the lethality in that in the US is not currently known and may be lower than the 2% in China, but this is a big deal.
I don’t know much about stock valuation but this is a significant world health event. POTUS tweeted that the virus is fully contained, but this will need to be walked back. It is a tough call figuring out who is glib, reassuring, realistic or alarmist, but the biology of the thing isn’t really known. Useful scientific article, but all these reviews are dated by the time they appear... - ( New Window )
"Potus Tweeted that the virus is fully contained" - Not sure why you included this.
We need adults weighing in on this, not the POTUS.
GUA, be careful with the political stuff. Mods don't want any of that stuff on here
this issue is about to get very political since the President is wanting to muzzle the CDC, so maybe they should just go ahead and delete the thread.
Or, stay away from now on regarding Political posts
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
RE: The Flu killed between 10,000 and 30,000 in the US this season ...
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
RE: RE: The Flu killed between 10,000 and 30,000 in the US this season ...
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
We have influenza pandemics declared every few years. SARS, Swine Flu etc. The doomsday hype machine ratchets up every year. Now, stop reading this and go get milk, matches, and batteries.
RE: RE: The Flu killed between 10,000 and 30,000 in the US this season ...
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
To my knowledge, it has *not* yet been declared an official pandemic. That has to come from the WHO and, unless they dit today, has declined to do so thus far. Not saying it won’t be, just afaik it is not yet.
Also, even in China, while it’s over 2% in Hubei province, outside of Hubei the mortality rate is a fraction of a percent.
RE: RE: RE: The Flu killed between 10,000 and 30,000 in the US this season ...
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
We have influenza pandemics declared every few years. SARS, Swine Flu etc. The doomsday hype machine ratchets up every year. Now, stop reading this and go get milk, matches, and batteries.
Sars wasn't a pandemic. A full pandemic of this virus will result in 4 million deaths worldwide, at a minimum. I don't believe you know how to read data. You remind me of the acting dhs head who said today that influenza and CoVid19 have identical morality rates.
RE: RE: RE: RE: The Flu killed between 10,000 and 30,000 in the US this season ...
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
We have influenza pandemics declared every few years. SARS, Swine Flu etc. The doomsday hype machine ratchets up every year. Now, stop reading this and go get milk, matches, and batteries.
Sars wasn't a pandemic. A full pandemic of this virus will result in 4 million deaths worldwide, at a minimum. I don't believe you know how to read data. You remind me of the acting dhs head who said today that influenza and CoVid19 have identical morality rates.
A pandemic doesn’t have anything to do with mortality rates. It has to do with the extent and global distribution of locally transmitted disease.
And, fwiw, just declaring something a pandemic doesn’t mean it comes with a bonus of x million deaths.
And, reading the data would suggest you are misrepresenting the true mortality rate...
All at this point in time of course. Things are still dynamic.
all the fundamentals are solid.. not retiring in 2020... interest rates will go down slightly in 2020, Apple is definitely on my list to buy more at 260-270.
RE: The Flu killed between 10,000 and 30,000 in the US this season ...
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
Again, it's not the total # of deaths that matters when doing a compare.
It's the % of deaths in relation to the number of diagnosed illnesses. And right now the Coronavirus looks much more dangerous than seasonal flu.
Per others like Bill L, that could be environment, pre-existing conditions, etc. But without knowing those layers, we can say with a good amount of certainty that seasonal flu is less dangerous.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: The Flu killed between 10,000 and 30,000 in the US this season ...
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
We have influenza pandemics declared every few years. SARS, Swine Flu etc. The doomsday hype machine ratchets up every year. Now, stop reading this and go get milk, matches, and batteries.
Sars wasn't a pandemic. A full pandemic of this virus will result in 4 million deaths worldwide, at a minimum. I don't believe you know how to read data. You remind me of the acting dhs head who said today that influenza and CoVid19 have identical morality rates.
A pandemic doesn’t have anything to do with mortality rates. It has to do with the extent and global distribution of locally transmitted disease.
And, fwiw, just declaring something a pandemic doesn’t mean it comes with a bonus of x million deaths.
And, reading the data would suggest you are misrepresenting the true mortality rate...
All at this point in time of course. Things are still dynamic.
I never said that pandemic was linked to morality rate but rather that a worldwide epidemic with this seeming morality rate would likely result in millions of deaths. I have read your posts and you seen to have a decent grasp of the underlying data and trends but I'm not too impressed with your reading comprehension. This is turning into a five alarm fire for the world economy and world health. We have never seen a lockdown on the scale enacted in China. 750 million people. It is unprecedented in history. And yet the virus is out. The unprecedented lockdown did not work. And the morality rate had remained consistent since day one. And at every step the spread of this virus has outpaced the cool rhetoric and best efforts of medical professionals and political leaders. I think your consistent pretension that this is nothing is getting old. I hope this "burns out" but i have to say that after the appalling performance from the acting head of dhs, i think we are unprepared.
Before this Coronavirus hit, I would say equities, outside of energy, were still a very good buy.
Now it's even better...but you just have to wait for the bottom. Whenever that hell that is...
Can it wait until fishing season? I can self-quarantine myself for the entirety of striped bass season. You know, for the good of humanity and all that.
...the clearest sense of "time" when it comes to the stock market.
Sure, in the long run, equities will rise. And there's no reason to expect otherwise.
But markets can be flat/down for years -- just check out the period 1968 - 1982.
So, the idea that the 2,000 point loss will be regained in a relatively short period of time is speculative.
Who the hell really knows?
Quote:
In comment 14818808 Payasdaddy said:
Quote:
from what I understand most of the people dying are older people with other issues
probably a 99% survival rate here in US if you are between 15-65
Not to minimize but this isnt ebola
Mortality rate is 2%. For the flu, it's 1%.
I agree....we absolutely need to take it seriously, but there will be a vaccine, treatments will get better, and people will not be dying in the streets. Long term, we will be fine, and later this year we'll be saying "Coronavirus, what was that? Oh yeah..."
Isn't flu .01%?
In the US, yes. Worldwide, it's higher. Trying to find the stats.
The virus is out spreading throughout the world. It has proven to be highly contagious. Humans are a virgin population for it. It causes at least 10 percent to need medical intervention. Let that number sink in. The US healthcare system, which has been bolstered in no way over the past few weeks, will collapse in two weeks when inundated with thousands of people suffering from pneumonia. Then, after that the health care workers will get sick themselves. It will collapse in cities with frightening speed. There will be triage of those dying. Who gets the care?
China, shut down their country to try and stop it. The stock markets is down because the second largest economy in the world has shut down. The Chinese took draconian measures to quarantine. They did not do this and risk their economy for the flu. They did it because it is ravaging their people and spreading. No one knows the truth of what is happening in Wuhan and China due to their modern day Internet Berlin Wall. Any numbers from China regarding this virus should be multipled. The CCP did admit they made errors to their people. This fact actually scares me more than anything else, for them to admit fault means they are scared shitless.
The virus is now in South Korea one thousand cases strong. It is in Italy and spreading throughout Europe. It is all over Iran, and no one even knew. Their own health minister has it, an MP from the capital has it, the religious sites in Qom and other pilgramige areas are still open. It is in Iraq, it is in Afghanistan.
It is a fucking pandemic.
Then there is our country, the USA,what a fucking joke. We can't even test for the virus on a mass scale here. The CDC tests were fucking faulty. There is a near certain chance the virus is already spreading locally and we dont even know why because the CDC is apparently incompetent. This is a big fucking problem that has been obvious for days and today there is a Washington Post article. Very soon this virus will start popping up all over the country.
The virus is in control now. Hopefully everyone is still talking Giants football in a few months, but I think this is the big one. DOW down 2000 two days? Hopefully that will be our biggest problem.
This post reads like the opening monologue from "The Outer Limits". Please stand by...
...the clearest sense of "time" when it comes to the stock market.
Sure, in the long run, equities will rise. And there's no reason to expect otherwise.
But markets can be flat/down for years -- just check out the period 1968 - 1982.
So, the idea that the 2,000 point loss will be regained in a relatively short period of time is speculative.
Who the hell really knows?
Interest rates were much higher from 68 to 82. No need to "search for yield" in the stock market.
Nobody knows full what will happen. Perhaps it will fall into a seasonal cycle. It is more deadly than the flu, and less deadly than SARS, but it spreads at a rate somewhere in the middle. It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined. It is spreading in very disparate countries from South Korea to Europe and Iran, and who knows what will happen in countries with high population densities and poor healthcare. Public health officials do not know the surge capacity of our own health care system.
I am not being doomsday, it is just that it is going to spread, the lethality in that in the US is not currently known and may be lower than the 2% in China, but this is a big deal.
I don’t know much about stock valuation but this is a significant world health event. POTUS tweeted that the virus is fully contained, but this will need to be walked back. It is a tough call figuring out who is glib, reassuring, realistic or alarmist, but the biology of the thing isn’t really known.
Useful scientific article, but all these reviews are dated by the time they appear... - ( New Window )
Again - it's not tremendously fatal (although while we're at it, I'd rather not have to deal with a sickness that could be caught like a cold but has a 2% chance of killing someone). But since January, and extending now into what will soon be March, factories have been shut down.
Car parts, cell phones - so much of the world is dependent on China making crap and then the rest of the world reselling it. China hasn't been making anything - not replacement parts, not car parts, not computers, televisions, or anything else. If it goes on much longer - with all these economies so tightly wound - how does it not do serious damage to the world's economy and our stock market as a result?
Again - it's not tremendously fatal (although while we're at it, I'd rather not have to deal with a sickness that could be caught like a cold but has a 2% chance of killing someone). But since January, and extending now into what will soon be March, factories have been shut down.
It does not have a 2% chance of killing everyone that catches it. That 2% or 3% is total. Likely higher % in elderly or the very young. And extremely low in the 18 to 60 y/o range.
Quote:
from what I understand most of the people dying are older people with other issues
probably a 99% survival rate here in US if you are between 15-65
Not to minimize but this isnt ebola
Mortality rate is 2%. For the flu, it's 1%.
I agree....we absolutely need to take it seriously, but there will be a vaccine, treatments will get better, and people will not be dying in the streets. Long term, we will be fine, and later this year we'll be saying "Coronavirus, what was that? Oh yeah..."
Good post. Want to add in though What’s the mortality rate in China vs other places. Let’s not gloss over that daft. There have been about 80,000. cases world wide. It will go up but how dangerous this is I still a huge Unknown. We will learn. I work in this sector and sell equipment used on patients who get seriously ill and wind up in the ICU due to issues related to sepsis. Will be interesting as it’s already been a bad flu season.
The devil is in The details. Again w China I’d literally throw out every bit of data. There’s a reason they don’t want anyone going in and reviewing the situation. It like they care about their people.
But hey. Never let a crisis go to waste as they say. There’s money to be made in panicking people.
Again - it's not tremendously fatal (although while we're at it, I'd rather not have to deal with a sickness that could be caught like a cold but has a 2% chance of killing someone). But since January, and extending now into what will soon be March, factories have been shut down.
Car parts, cell phones - so much of the world is dependent on China making crap and then the rest of the world reselling it. China hasn't been making anything - not replacement parts, not car parts, not computers, televisions, or anything else. If it goes on much longer - with all these economies so tightly wound - how does it not do serious damage to the world's economy and our stock market as a result?
I think I read where China is the biggest producer - for the US, at least - of penicillin.
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largest economy are quarantined. This shit *is* out of a bad horror movie.
Again - it's not tremendously fatal (although while we're at it, I'd rather not have to deal with a sickness that could be caught like a cold but has a 2% chance of killing someone). But since January, and extending now into what will soon be March, factories have been shut down.
Car parts, cell phones - so much of the world is dependent on China making crap and then the rest of the world reselling it. China hasn't been making anything - not replacement parts, not car parts, not computers, televisions, or anything else. If it goes on much longer - with all these economies so tightly wound - how does it not do serious damage to the world's economy and our stock market as a result?
I think I read where China is the biggest producer - for the US, at least - of penicillin.
Yep. Heard the US does not produce penicillin any longer. Not profitable..we don't produce medical morphine, either.
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In comment 14818808 Payasdaddy said:
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from what I understand most of the people dying are older people with other issues
probably a 99% survival rate here in US if you are between 15-65
Not to minimize but this isnt ebola
Mortality rate is 2%. For the flu, it's 1%.
I agree....we absolutely need to take it seriously, but there will be a vaccine, treatments will get better, and people will not be dying in the streets. Long term, we will be fine, and later this year we'll be saying "Coronavirus, what was that? Oh yeah..."
Good post. Want to add in though What’s the mortality rate in China vs other places. Let’s not gloss over that daft. There have been about 80,000. cases world wide. It will go up but how dangerous this is I still a huge Unknown. We will learn. I work in this sector and sell equipment used on patients who get seriously ill and wind up in the ICU due to issues related to sepsis. Will be interesting as it’s already been a bad flu season.
The devil is in The details. Again w China I’d literally throw out every bit of data. There’s a reason they don’t want anyone going in and reviewing the situation. It like they care about their people.
But hey. Never let a crisis go to waste as they say. There’s money to be made in panicking people.
I don’t think the CDC is inciting panic or profiting from it, their warnings are measured and line up with the current uncertainties in the science. BTW, seasonal flu has a mortality of 0.1%, 20X less than current estimates for COVID-19.
It would be nice if we could lower that average in the US, but my fear it is going to cause real problems in countries with high population densities and weak health care practices.
Thank you?
To me it is in the sense that this uncharted waters biologically, economically, politically and everything else.
No one knows what is going to happen. Globalization itself, the world order, is sick from the virus just like many people are. China is producing nothing, this thread was started as an economic thread.
This virus is controlling world events.
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That is fucking gold
Thank you?
To me it is in the sense that this uncharted waters biologically, economically, politically and everything else.
No one knows what is going to happen. Globalization itself, the world order, is sick from the virus just like many people are. China is producing nothing, this thread was started as an economic thread.
This virus is controlling world events.
If it is not terrorism it has to be something else. Hey, WTF, plague is back in Cali!
CCP is almost certainly underreporting the number of cases and total fatalities. Not sure if the actual fatality rates are higher. They also appear to only count deaths in hospitals/quarantine centers. They aren’t welding apartment shut and locking down cities for 2,000 deaths. That number is far higher imo.
To be fair, it’s almost impossible for any country regardless of governance to gain an accurate case count. No country has an accurate test in place, nor the quantity nor the facilities to analyze the results. CDC/WHO should be assessing respiratory claims by countries. I have little confidence in the leadership of either institutions and those entities which control them, unfortunately.
We need to keep an eye on the freer societies for more accurate information particularly South Korea and Singapore over the next week.
I do not to mess up your evening, but read your policy exclusions. We are going to Italy at end of April. We have Allianz travel insurance, but my friend has Travelguard. Epidemics are excluded from coverage. Since we are taking a tour through AAA, they are now offering the March travel people to reschedule their trip without penalty. The only other recourse I see, if things are still bad in May, is to have some kind of personal or family illness
Minor blip. Carry on, Chicken Little.
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ANCILLARY EVACUATION BENEFITS
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BAGGAGE AND PERSONAL EFFECTS
$1000.00 Per Insured
EMERGENCY EVACUATION AND REPATRIATION OF REMAINS
$50000.00 Per Insured
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FLIGHT ACCIDENT INSURANCE
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That China may be underreporting it, especially in the beginning
CCP is almost certainly underreporting the number of cases and total fatalities. Not sure if the actual fatality rates are higher. They also appear to only count deaths in hospitals/quarantine centers. They aren’t welding apartment shut and locking down cities for 2,000 deaths. That number is far higher imo.
To be fair, it’s almost impossible for any country regardless of governance to gain an accurate case count. No country has an accurate test in place, nor the quantity nor the facilities to analyze the results. CDC/WHO should be assessing respiratory claims by countries. I have little confidence in the leadership of either institutions and those entities which control them, unfortunately.
We need to keep an eye on the freer societies for more accurate information particularly South Korea and Singapore over the next week.
Good post DCG.
Why Energy stocks?
Quote:
And again today. I recommend energy stocks.
Why Energy stocks?
They were undervalued before and many are just ridiculous now. My favorite is ET. 10+% distribution with 1.9x coverage, DCF growing, major projects coming on line, huge presence in LNG which will power all the electric plants we will need for clean energy, ridiculously low price.
Coverages & Benefit Limits
Standard Packages
ACCIDENT AND SICKNESS MEDICAL EXPENSES
$5000.00 Per Insured
ANCILLARY EVACUATION BENEFITS
$5000.00 Per Insured
BAGGAGE AND PERSONAL EFFECTS
$1000.00 Per Insured
EMERGENCY EVACUATION AND REPATRIATION OF REMAINS
$50000.00 Per Insured
EMERGENCY TRAVEL ASSISTANCE
Included Per Insured
FLIGHT ACCIDENT INSURANCE
$50000.00 Per Insured
TRAVEL MEDICAL ASSISTANCE
Included Per Insured
TRIP CANCELLATION
100% Trip Cost Per Insured
TRIP INTERRUPTION
100% Trip Cost Per Insured
WORLD WIDE TRAVEL ASSISTANCE
Included Per Insured
"This product only covers for Trip Costs booked with Expedia, Inc. Coverage varies by state. Please refer to Certificate of Insurance or Policy for complete details."
Copyright © 2020, Travel Guard.
I have similar coverage. I am not sure it matters who cancels the trip as far as travel insurance. When you got the policy, there is a detailed description of what is covered and what is excludes. I suggest reviewing it, and then contact your travel agent to get clarification. I am only suggesting being prepared ahead of time so you know what is covered and what isn’t. Probably by May, it might not make a difference anyway.
Me too ...
but I will call travel insurance to work out details for sure
Thanks for the heads up
Dollar cost average over time and do not panic.
Nobody knows full what will happen. Perhaps it will fall into a seasonal cycle. It is more deadly than the flu, and less deadly than SARS, but it spreads at a rate somewhere in the middle. It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined. It is spreading in very disparate countries from South Korea to Europe and Iran, and who knows what will happen in countries with high population densities and poor healthcare. Public health officials do not know the surge capacity of our own health care system.
I am not being doomsday, it is just that it is going to spread, the lethality in that in the US is not currently known and may be lower than the 2% in China, but this is a big deal.
I don’t know much about stock valuation but this is a significant world health event. POTUS tweeted that the virus is fully contained, but this will need to be walked back. It is a tough call figuring out who is glib, reassuring, realistic or alarmist, but the biology of the thing isn’t really known. Useful scientific article, but all these reviews are dated by the time they appear... - ( New Window )
"Potus Tweeted that the virus is fully contained" - Not sure why you included this.
We need adults weighing in on this, not the POTUS.
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The CDC is warning that affected communities will experience severe disruption of their lives, in the USA.
Nobody knows full what will happen. Perhaps it will fall into a seasonal cycle. It is more deadly than the flu, and less deadly than SARS, but it spreads at a rate somewhere in the middle. It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined. It is spreading in very disparate countries from South Korea to Europe and Iran, and who knows what will happen in countries with high population densities and poor healthcare. Public health officials do not know the surge capacity of our own health care system.
I am not being doomsday, it is just that it is going to spread, the lethality in that in the US is not currently known and may be lower than the 2% in China, but this is a big deal.
I don’t know much about stock valuation but this is a significant world health event. POTUS tweeted that the virus is fully contained, but this will need to be walked back. It is a tough call figuring out who is glib, reassuring, realistic or alarmist, but the biology of the thing isn’t really known. Useful scientific article, but all these reviews are dated by the time they appear... - ( New Window )
"Potus Tweeted that the virus is fully contained" - Not sure why you included this.
We need adults weighing in on this, not the POTUS.
GUA, be careful with the political stuff. Mods don't want any of that stuff on here
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In comment 14818870 DonQuixote said:
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The CDC is warning that affected communities will experience severe disruption of their lives, in the USA.
Nobody knows full what will happen. Perhaps it will fall into a seasonal cycle. It is more deadly than the flu, and less deadly than SARS, but it spreads at a rate somewhere in the middle. It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined. It is spreading in very disparate countries from South Korea to Europe and Iran, and who knows what will happen in countries with high population densities and poor healthcare. Public health officials do not know the surge capacity of our own health care system.
I am not being doomsday, it is just that it is going to spread, the lethality in that in the US is not currently known and may be lower than the 2% in China, but this is a big deal.
I don’t know much about stock valuation but this is a significant world health event. POTUS tweeted that the virus is fully contained, but this will need to be walked back. It is a tough call figuring out who is glib, reassuring, realistic or alarmist, but the biology of the thing isn’t really known. Useful scientific article, but all these reviews are dated by the time they appear... - ( New Window )
"Potus Tweeted that the virus is fully contained" - Not sure why you included this.
We need adults weighing in on this, not the POTUS.
GUA, be careful with the political stuff. Mods don't want any of that stuff on here
this issue is about to get very political since the President is wanting to muzzle the CDC, so maybe they should just go ahead and delete the thread.
just a heads up, no worries buddy
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
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... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
We have influenza pandemics declared every few years. SARS, Swine Flu etc. The doomsday hype machine ratchets up every year. Now, stop reading this and go get milk, matches, and batteries.
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... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
To my knowledge, it has *not* yet been declared an official pandemic. That has to come from the WHO and, unless they dit today, has declined to do so thus far. Not saying it won’t be, just afaik it is not yet.
Also, even in China, while it’s over 2% in Hubei province, outside of Hubei the mortality rate is a fraction of a percent.
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In comment 14819133 Jim from Katonah said:
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... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
We have influenza pandemics declared every few years. SARS, Swine Flu etc. The doomsday hype machine ratchets up every year. Now, stop reading this and go get milk, matches, and batteries.
Sars wasn't a pandemic. A full pandemic of this virus will result in 4 million deaths worldwide, at a minimum. I don't believe you know how to read data. You remind me of the acting dhs head who said today that influenza and CoVid19 have identical morality rates.
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In comment 14819138 Producer said:
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In comment 14819133 Jim from Katonah said:
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... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
We have influenza pandemics declared every few years. SARS, Swine Flu etc. The doomsday hype machine ratchets up every year. Now, stop reading this and go get milk, matches, and batteries.
Sars wasn't a pandemic. A full pandemic of this virus will result in 4 million deaths worldwide, at a minimum. I don't believe you know how to read data. You remind me of the acting dhs head who said today that influenza and CoVid19 have identical morality rates.
A pandemic doesn’t have anything to do with mortality rates. It has to do with the extent and global distribution of locally transmitted disease.
And, fwiw, just declaring something a pandemic doesn’t mean it comes with a bonus of x million deaths.
And, reading the data would suggest you are misrepresenting the true mortality rate...
All at this point in time of course. Things are still dynamic.
Again, it's not the total # of deaths that matters when doing a compare.
It's the % of deaths in relation to the number of diagnosed illnesses. And right now the Coronavirus looks much more dangerous than seasonal flu.
Per others like Bill L, that could be environment, pre-existing conditions, etc. But without knowing those layers, we can say with a good amount of certainty that seasonal flu is less dangerous.
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In comment 14819146 Jim from Katonah said:
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In comment 14819138 Producer said:
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In comment 14819133 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
... as per the CDC. That number is pretty consistent every flu season (September to March). No one says a word, and a big % of the US can’t even bother to get a vaccine. So far there have 1,600 deaths attributed to Coronavirus — over several countries. The media loves a calamity — every storm is the storm of the century, every possible bad event amplified. Coronavirus is likely yet another example.
It is already declared a pandemic. Please regale us with stories about how normal that is
We have influenza pandemics declared every few years. SARS, Swine Flu etc. The doomsday hype machine ratchets up every year. Now, stop reading this and go get milk, matches, and batteries.
Sars wasn't a pandemic. A full pandemic of this virus will result in 4 million deaths worldwide, at a minimum. I don't believe you know how to read data. You remind me of the acting dhs head who said today that influenza and CoVid19 have identical morality rates.
A pandemic doesn’t have anything to do with mortality rates. It has to do with the extent and global distribution of locally transmitted disease.
And, fwiw, just declaring something a pandemic doesn’t mean it comes with a bonus of x million deaths.
And, reading the data would suggest you are misrepresenting the true mortality rate...
All at this point in time of course. Things are still dynamic.
I never said that pandemic was linked to morality rate but rather that a worldwide epidemic with this seeming morality rate would likely result in millions of deaths. I have read your posts and you seen to have a decent grasp of the underlying data and trends but I'm not too impressed with your reading comprehension. This is turning into a five alarm fire for the world economy and world health. We have never seen a lockdown on the scale enacted in China. 750 million people. It is unprecedented in history. And yet the virus is out. The unprecedented lockdown did not work. And the morality rate had remained consistent since day one. And at every step the spread of this virus has outpaced the cool rhetoric and best efforts of medical professionals and political leaders. I think your consistent pretension that this is nothing is getting old. I hope this "burns out" but i have to say that after the appalling performance from the acting head of dhs, i think we are unprepared.