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COVID-19 Discussion Thread

Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/16/2020 9:29 am
With understandable interest in the COVID-19 issue, BBI has been inundated with threads on the subject. At the same time, BBI remains a football website and the focus of this discussion board should now be predominantly on free agency.

So we requesting that instead of starting new threads on COVID-19, you post updates, personal observations, and discussion within our pinned daily thread. The other existing threads will be locked and kept for a few days as pre-existing resources for information.

Thank you for your cooperation!
Thanks Eric.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 9:35 am : link
It seems like a good idea.
Agree this is a good idea.  
Mike from Ohio : 3/16/2020 9:36 am : link
Hopefully people can control themselves and have intelligent discussion on the subject.

Well, it doesn't hurt to hope...
DOW down 2250 at the open...  
rnargi : 3/16/2020 9:44 am : link
panic selling as well as panic buying, I suppose.
I went to the local shop rite yesterday early  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 9:46 am : link
Like between 7:30 and 7:45 figuring it might not be that bad. I got out of my car...put on fresh vinyl gloves and walked over...as soon as the doors opened, people were lined up to check out with loaded carts...the registers were on the other side of the store...I went to the cereal aisle: cleaned out. Paper good aisle? Same thing. Are people wiping their asses with napkins and paper towels these days? I turned around and left. Maybe by midweek the store will be restocked.
RE: DOW down 2250 at the open...  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 9:47 am : link
In comment 14836884 rnargi said:
Quote:
panic selling as well as panic buying, I suppose.


So it’s like Friday never happened on the DOW.

👎
RE: DOW down 2250 at the open...  
M.S. : 3/16/2020 9:47 am : link
In comment 14836884 rnargi said:
Quote:
panic selling as well as panic buying, I suppose.

After the Fed dropped rates to 0-.25% this was bound to happen. Trip circuit breakers have been released and now DOW is down over 2,700 points as of 9:47am.
.  
GiantEgo : 3/16/2020 9:48 am : link
Can we get our 1.7 trillion back?
So I've lost 20% of my 401K.....  
BillKo : 3/16/2020 9:59 am : link
......this is quite different than anything we have experienced before.

How far can the market drop?
France  
Sammo85 : 3/16/2020 10:02 am : link
is reporting that more than half of it’s serious and critical cases are in patients under 65. As per NYT ticker.

Also looks like Spain is going into lockdown and about to enter Italy territory. Malaysia is also seeing uptick in new cases.
RE: So I've lost 20% of my 401K.....  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 10:04 am : link
In comment 14836907 BillKo said:
Quote:
......this is quite different than anything we have experienced before.

How far can the market drop?


Today? 20% drop is the final (level 3) circuit breaker.

Long term? Not sure. Some experts think there will be a significant bounce back in the 2nd half of the year. I’m a little pessimistic on that notion.
Feels like the market could fall for a ways still  
Oscar : 3/16/2020 10:05 am : link
The whole world is on hold. Not a normal situation, and no end in sight.
RE: RE: So I've lost 20% of my 401K.....  
BillKo : 3/16/2020 10:05 am : link
In comment 14836915 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14836907 BillKo said:


Quote:


......this is quite different than anything we have experienced before.

How far can the market drop?



Today? 20% drop is the final (level 3) circuit breaker.

Long term? Not sure. Some experts think there will be a significant bounce back in the 2nd half of the year. I’m a little pessimistic on that notion.


Boss - 20% since my highwater mark - probably like 1-2 weeks ago........
Someone at work still trotting out the 'Well, it's like the flu.'  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 10:08 am : link
line. Good God man...
I  
AcidTest : 3/16/2020 10:14 am : link
don't think a national lockdown of the U.S is likely, or will be effective. The country is too big, and many people would ignore it. Localized lockdowns might help slow the virus, but probably not enough. I'm beginning to believe there is nothing we can really do except maybe let the virus run its course until a vaccine can be developed.
RE: RE: RE: So I've lost 20% of my 401K.....  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 10:16 am : link
In comment 14836917 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14836915 The_Boss said:


Quote:


In comment 14836907 BillKo said:


Quote:


......this is quite different than anything we have experienced before.

How far can the market drop?



Today? 20% drop is the final (level 3) circuit breaker.

Long term? Not sure. Some experts think there will be a significant bounce back in the 2nd half of the year. I’m a little pessimistic on that notion.



Boss - 20% since my highwater mark - probably like 1-2 weeks ago........


You’re not alone. I look at it daily myself. Hopefully over the long run, the Fed did the right thing by reducing rates.
RE: I  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 10:18 am : link
In comment 14836933 AcidTest said:
Quote:
don't think a national lockdown of the U.S is likely, or will be effective. The country is too big, and many people would ignore it. Localized lockdowns might help slow the virus, but probably not enough. I'm beginning to believe there is nothing we can really do except maybe let the virus run its course until a vaccine can be developed.


Humans are being tested with a potential vaccine in the Seattle area I thought I saw early this morning.
I have taken the ostrich  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 10:23 am : link
approach to my 401k/investments

just not going to look at them. Definitely not daily. Not sure why someone would follow their 401k daily.

Good news is I'm not close to retirement, so the future investment into 401k/etc. will be at (hopefully) artificially low prices.

New Yorker article from 2018 explains a lot re: Italy  
Paulie Walnuts : 3/16/2020 10:24 am : link
Throughout the aughts, Chinese continued to show up in Tuscany. A non-stop flight was established between Wenzhou and Rome. Some migrants came with tourist visas and stayed on. Others paid smugglers huge fees, which they then had to work off, a form of indentured servitude that was enforced by the threat of violence. The long hours that the Chinese worked astonished many Italians, who were used to several weeks of paid vacation a year and five months of maternity leave. In 1989, the newspaper Corriere della Sera, using racist language still common among some Italians, published an article about a Chinese worker under the headline “YELLOW STAKHANOVITE ON THE ARNO.”

While Florence was celebrated for its premium leatherwork, Prato was best known for the production of textiles. The Wenzhou workers tacked in a third direction. They imported cheap cloth from China and turned it into what is now called pronto moda, or “fast fashion”: polyester shirts, plasticky pants, insignia jackets. These items sold briskly to low-end retailers and in open-air markets throughout the world.
inexpensive immigrant labor to manufacture handbags that bear the coveted “Made in Italy” label. - ( New Window )
RE: I  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 10:27 am : link
In comment 14836933 AcidTest said:
Quote:
don't think a national lockdown of the U.S is likely, or will be effective. The country is too big, and many people would ignore it. Localized lockdowns might help slow the virus, but probably not enough. I'm beginning to believe there is nothing we can really do except maybe let the virus run its course until a vaccine can be developed.


I've got friends (I now question why) that made it a point to go out as much as possible this past week/weekend and constantly give updates about what bar they are at and let us know that "no one here is sick".

There's trolling and then there's just being a fucking piece of shit.
RE: I have taken the ostrich  
BillKo : 3/16/2020 10:28 am : link
In comment 14836949 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
approach to my 401k/investments

just not going to look at them. Definitely not daily. Not sure why someone would follow their 401k daily.

Good news is I'm not close to retirement, so the future investment into 401k/etc. will be at (hopefully) artificially low prices.


PJ - I only glanced once a week over the last 2 weeks since everything has dipped.

But before that, with stocks rising nearly everyday, how could you not look?? LOL.......if you had a 401K you were cleaning up.

I'm 52 so I've got a ways to go before retiring but these events are unnerving. When the stock market crashed back in 2008, I really didn't have a big investment.
RE: RE: I  
NYerInMA : 3/16/2020 10:32 am : link
In comment 14836956 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14836933 AcidTest said:


Quote:


don't think a national lockdown of the U.S is likely, or will be effective. The country is too big, and many people would ignore it. Localized lockdowns might help slow the virus, but probably not enough. I'm beginning to believe there is nothing we can really do except maybe let the virus run its course until a vaccine can be developed.



I've got friends (I now question why) that made it a point to go out as much as possible this past week/weekend and constantly give updates about what bar they are at and let us know that "no one here is sick".

There's trolling and then there's just being a fucking piece of shit.


Wow, what a bunch of assholes. Keep your distance from those walking disease vectors!
NY, NJ, CT: bars, gyms, and casinos all close at 8  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 10:33 am : link
Nightly moving forward, per 1010 WINS.
? re. European youth being impacted...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 10:34 am : link
Do they still smoke cigs like they're going out of style? When I was in college & did study abroad, I was amazed how much Europeans-especially the circle I ran in-smoked. It was incredible. As a lifetime non smoker, I couldn't believe it. And while I'm no doctor, smoking isn't good for the lungs.
Fair point BillKo  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 10:34 am : link
I have a stock aggregator which includes some of my more heavily invested funds, and my Merrill Lynch IRRA is linked to my BofA accounts, so I see them. I know in my head basically how things are doing.

Also I get quarterly statements electronically, so I see those. But I don't check daily.

I lived through the 2000 (?) tech bubble, 9-11, 2008 recession, etc. so I have been through some roller coasters.
Anyone found a chart that show deaths by age?  
since1925 : 3/16/2020 10:36 am : link
I was looking for one either worldwide or USA and have had no luck. Occasionally I see a story that says the majority or over 50% of deaths are close to 80. But I'm more interested in deaths of people in their 20s, 30s etc.

Anyone know a place that has this information?
We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
X : 3/16/2020 10:36 am : link
in eastern Florida and no significant impact that I have noticed. The epicenter of the virus for the state is in southwest FL where there have been a few deaths and also where my 82 year old mother lives.

I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.

Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
RE: RE: I  
Mike from Ohio : 3/16/2020 10:37 am : link
In comment 14836956 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14836933 AcidTest said:


Quote:


don't think a national lockdown of the U.S is likely, or will be effective. The country is too big, and many people would ignore it. Localized lockdowns might help slow the virus, but probably not enough. I'm beginning to believe there is nothing we can really do except maybe let the virus run its course until a vaccine can be developed.



I've got friends (I now question why) that made it a point to go out as much as possible this past week/weekend and constantly give updates about what bar they are at and let us know that "no one here is sick".

There's trolling and then there's just being a fucking piece of shit.


I have heard the same from others - "This isn't going to change my life. I won't live in fear."

This isn't terrorists you dumbasses...the virus doesn't care what you do with your life. You aren't proving anything to anyone, other than you have very poor judgment.
RE: I have taken the ostrich  
KDavies : 3/16/2020 10:37 am : link
In comment 14836949 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
approach to my 401k/investments

just not going to look at them. Definitely not daily. Not sure why someone would follow their 401k daily.

Good news is I'm not close to retirement, so the future investment into 401k/etc. will be at (hopefully) artificially low prices.


This. People are stupid. If you're retiring, you shouldn't have that much money in stocks. If you're young, you shouldn't be checking your stuff daily, and should recognize that now is the opportunity to increase your stock purchasing power by 50%.
I stopped looking  
Big Al : 3/16/2020 10:39 am : link
at my 403b so it is not actually happening.
I bumped up my 401k by 50%  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 10:39 am : link
last week so hopefully that will help offset by buying at lower prices. I typically dump money into the kids college fund around the holidays in 1 shot and I may end up doing that soon too.
The Mrs.is out walking  
Big Al : 3/16/2020 10:40 am : link
On the Hackensack High School athletic fields rather than going to the gyms. Surprised the gums have not been closed.
RE: New Yorker article from 2018 explains a lot re: Italy  
SomeFan : 3/16/2020 10:41 am : link
In comment 14836950 Paulie Walnuts said:
Quote:
Throughout the aughts, Chinese continued to show up in Tuscany. A non-stop flight was established between Wenzhou and Rome. Some migrants came with tourist visas and stayed on. Others paid smugglers huge fees, which they then had to work off, a form of indentured servitude that was enforced by the threat of violence. The long hours that the Chinese worked astonished many Italians, who were used to several weeks of paid vacation a year and five months of maternity leave. In 1989, the newspaper Corriere della Sera, using racist language still common among some Italians, published an article about a Chinese worker under the headline “YELLOW STAKHANOVITE ON THE ARNO.”

While Florence was celebrated for its premium leatherwork, Prato was best known for the production of textiles. The Wenzhou workers tacked in a third direction. They imported cheap cloth from China and turned it into what is now called pronto moda, or “fast fashion”: polyester shirts, plasticky pants, insignia jackets. These items sold briskly to low-end retailers and in open-air markets throughout the world. inexpensive immigrant labor to manufacture handbags that bear the coveted “Made in Italy” label. - ( New Window )


Of course, workers from China are the reason it is widespread in Italy and Iran.
RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 10:41 am : link
In comment 14836973 X said:
Quote:
in eastern Florida and no significant impact that I have noticed. The epicenter of the virus for the state is in southwest FL where there have been a few deaths and also where my 82 year old mother lives.

I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.

Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.


How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
RE: RE: I  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 10:41 am : link
In comment 14836941 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14836933 AcidTest said:


Quote:





Humans are being tested with a potential vaccine in the Seattle area I thought I saw early this morning.


Which probably isn't a wise move. You are going to read about a ton of these "promising" vaccines that as soon as they hit animal trials fail. Same thing happened with SARS and swine flu. Unless we get incredibly lucky.
RE: RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 10:43 am : link
In comment 14836984 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14836973 X said:



Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.



How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.


Southwest Florida may get hit hard, that is retirement villa down there including my father.
RE: RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
KDavies : 3/16/2020 10:45 am : link
In comment 14836984 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14836973 X said:


Quote:


in eastern Florida and no significant impact that I have noticed. The epicenter of the virus for the state is in southwest FL where there have been a few deaths and also where my 82 year old mother lives.

I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.

Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.



How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.


0 two week ago. 155 last I heard. I'm hoping that it is the heat (as that means better news for the rest of the country), but it's also too early to tell, as we aren't at the point yet where any exponential growth will show.

Saw pictures where Disney was packed before closing. Just stupid.
Well now it’s personal  
Steve L : 3/16/2020 10:45 am : link
Foo Fighters have postponed their tour. Grr
RE: RE: RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 10:46 am : link
In comment 14836989 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14836984 The_Boss said:


Quote:


In comment 14836973 X said:



Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.



How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.



Southwest Florida may get hit hard, that is retirement villa down there including my father.


Hopefully he’s taking all precautions.
I shifted everything around for a couple of reasons last year  
Motley Two : 3/16/2020 10:48 am : link
and all of my assets are in straight cash (homie). I began scheduling with a new investment manager last month, then all of this shit started.

I got extremely lucky.
RE: RE: RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
BillKo : 3/16/2020 10:50 am : link
In comment 14836989 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14836984 The_Boss said:


Quote:


In comment 14836973 X said:



Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.



How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.



Southwest Florida may get hit hard, that is retirement villa down there including my father.


I posted I had a colleague down in Clearwater FL on vacation and he said the beach are packed as are restaurants. Looks normal other than stadiums empty.

That's not good.
RE: Well now it’s personal  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 10:52 am : link
In comment 14836993 Steve L said:
Quote:
Foo Fighters have postponed their tour. Grr


Just waiting for the same from Tool, haha. Granted at this point I hope they do because I don't want to have to make that decision for myself next month
RE: RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
HomerJones45 : 3/16/2020 10:54 am : link
In comment 14836984 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14836973 X said:


Quote:


in eastern Florida and no significant impact that I have noticed. The epicenter of the virus for the state is in southwest FL where there have been a few deaths and also where my 82 year old mother lives.

I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.

Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.



How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
Most cases are in Broward County and Miami-Dade. Collier County in SW FL has 5 cases reported so far, all travel related from the latest report I could find.

The numbers are all over the place for Florida. I have seen 31 and 149 for all of Florida.
RE: RE: RE: RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 10:54 am : link
In comment 14837008 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14836989 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


In comment 14836984 The_Boss said:


Quote:


In comment 14836973 X said:



Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.



How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.



Southwest Florida may get hit hard, that is retirement villa down there including my father.



I posted I had a colleague down in Clearwater FL on vacation and he said the beach are packed as are restaurants. Looks normal other than stadiums empty.

That's not good.


Fort Lauderdale’s beaches are closed and they have officers on horseback patrolling A1A along beach access points.
All bars and restaurants in NY, NJ and Connecticut to close  
BigBlueShock : 3/16/2020 11:00 am : link
Open for take out only in a tri state agreement...
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Someone at work still trotting out the 'Well, it's like the flu.'  
schabadoo : 3/16/2020 11:01 am : link
In comment 14836923 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
line. Good God man...


I know a smoker with COPD who has kids, said the same thing.
Downtown Binghamton NY Saturday...  
x meadowlander : 3/16/2020 11:02 am : link
...I was shocked to see the St Pat's Pub Crawl wasn't cancelled.

Dumbasses.

My son works at a local hospital, we're highly concerned. They have one case, and are expecting to get overwhelmed pretty quickly.

At Ithaca College, person was tested May 5th came back negative. Over the weekend they tested positive - nearly a full week went by with this person presuming they didn't have it.

What REALLY sucks is ALLERGY season is about to kick in, confusing people more.

All bars & restaurants closed in  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 11:03 am : link
NY, NJ, & CT? Woah. I feel horrible for the business owners. They're going to take it right on the chin. That said, I think it's the right move.
RE: Someone at work still trotting out the 'Well, it's like the flu.'  
since1925 : 3/16/2020 11:03 am : link
In comment 14836923 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
line. Good God man...


Actually if you're under 40. The symptoms are pretty much like a mild flu. In China the death rate for people in their 20 and 30s, is 0.2% and because many cases go unreported it's probably lower. Since people tend to judge things by their personal experience, the comment makes sense.

However, it's not like the flu for his parents or grandparents. And it's overall effect is devastating. So your co-working isn't wrong....but he's wrong.

I'm 67 so I'm home. But if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay. In either case, I would be washing my hands a lot.

Bottom line, a comment like that is an opportunity to engage someone in helpful conversation. Use it. Help him out.

I know this is impossible  
Seth : 3/16/2020 11:05 am : link
but I don't know why....

Why couldn't markets (global market maybe) agree to 'shut down' so that we freeze the market in its current state? I know this is a stupid question but I don't know the answer.
RE: RE: Someone at work still trotting out the 'Well, it's like the flu.'  
KDavies : 3/16/2020 11:05 am : link
In comment 14837046 since1925 said:
Quote:
In comment 14836923 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


line. Good God man...



Actually if you're under 40. The symptoms are pretty much like a mild flu. In China the death rate for people in their 20 and 30s, is 0.2% and because many cases go unreported it's probably lower. Since people tend to judge things by their personal experience, the comment makes sense.

However, it's not like the flu for his parents or grandparents. And it's overall effect is devastating. So your co-working isn't wrong....but he's wrong.

I'm 67 so I'm home. But if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay. In either case, I would be washing my hands a lot.

Bottom line, a comment like that is an opportunity to engage someone in helpful conversation. Use it. Help him out.


Precisely. And that's the exact danger. Kids, who are notorious germ spreaders, show very little signs. I am keeping my children on our property for the most part, and keeping grandparents away.
RE: All bars and restaurants in NY, NJ and Connecticut to close  
Chef : 3/16/2020 11:08 am : link
In comment 14837030 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:
Open for take out only in a tri state agreement... Link - ( New Window )


This included the Gyms
RE: All bars & restaurants closed in  
Chef : 3/16/2020 11:09 am : link
In comment 14837042 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
NY, NJ, & CT? Woah. I feel horrible for the business owners. They're going to take it right on the chin. That said, I think it's the right move.


Mass as well...
****INFORMATION I JUST RECEIVED FROM A FRIEND IN STATE DEPT****  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 11:09 am : link
Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.

"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."

He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.

--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
And now he says it may be false  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 11:11 am : link
JFC. There is an announcement saying it's bs.
NSC just posted message saying its not real  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 11:12 am : link
.
wow, our state department asshat lasted roughly 30 seconds  
Heisenberg : 3/16/2020 11:13 am : link
.
RE: ****INFORMATION I JUST RECEIVED FROM A FRIEND IN STATE DEPT****  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 3/16/2020 11:14 am : link
In comment 14837064 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.

"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."

He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.

--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--



The White House debunked this last night. Not out of the realm of possibility, but right now not happening per my Govt. affairs Dept.
RE: wow, our state department asshat lasted roughly 30 seconds  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 11:14 am : link
In comment 14837073 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
.


I just blasted him. He F'ing works there. How does he fall for this shit. GD
RE: ****INFORMATION I JUST RECEIVED FROM A FRIEND IN STATE DEPT****  
rnargi : 3/16/2020 11:16 am : link
In comment 14837064 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.

"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."

He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.

--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--


The Stafford Act was invoked on Friday. Freed up ~50B for use in fighting the pandemic.
RE: wow, our state department asshat lasted roughly 30 seconds  
widmerseyebrow : 3/16/2020 11:17 am : link
In comment 14837073 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
.


That was an exhilarating 3 minutes!
RE: ****INFORMATION I JUST RECEIVED FROM A FRIEND IN STATE DEPT****  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 11:17 am : link
In comment 14837064 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.

"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."

He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.

--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--


The NSC said this was a false rumor. This potentially is asking for more problems. Do you think everyone in the country is going to be able to get enough food for 2 weeks? You’ll have people fighting (literally) over dwindling supplies of milk, bread, eggs, water, meat, etc.
RE: RE: ****INFORMATION I JUST RECEIVED FROM A FRIEND IN STATE DEPT****  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 11:18 am : link
In comment 14837091 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14837064 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.

"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."

He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.

--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--



The NSC said this was a false rumor. This potentially is asking for more problems. Do you think everyone in the country is going to be able to get enough food for 2 weeks? You’ll have people fighting (literally) over dwindling supplies of milk, bread, eggs, water, meat, etc.


Or what everyone else just said. Fake.
RE: RE: ****INFORMATION I JUST RECEIVED FROM A FRIEND IN STATE DEPT****  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 11:18 am : link
In comment 14837091 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14837064 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.

"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."

He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.

--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--



The NSC said this was a false rumor. This potentially is asking for more problems. Do you think everyone in the country is going to be able to get enough food for 2 weeks? You’ll have people fighting (literally) over dwindling supplies of milk, bread, eggs, water, meat, etc.


Yep. Just ripped my buddy. At least now I know he's not as connected or high up as he has always touted he is at State.
2 week lockdown & a bunch of us  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 11:19 am : link
will be like this by the end...
Link - ( New Window )
So, the quarantine threads have been quarantined?  
robbieballs2003 : 3/16/2020 11:20 am : link
You can never be too safe.
Bradshaw, no worries dude.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 11:21 am : link
In times like these, fake rumors are everywhere. It's sometimes hard to decipher what's real & what some bozo on Facebook made up that people are now regurgitating.
RE: Downtown Binghamton NY Saturday...  
Bill L : 3/16/2020 11:22 am : link
In comment 14837040 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
...I was shocked to see the St Pat's Pub Crawl wasn't cancelled.

Dumbasses.

My son works at a local hospital, we're highly concerned. They have one case, and are expecting to get overwhelmed pretty quickly.

At Ithaca College, person was tested May 5th came back negative. Over the weekend they tested positive - nearly a full week went by with this person presuming they didn't have it.

What REALLY sucks is ALLERGY season is about to kick in, confusing people more.

I’d be worried that allergies, more to the point, allergic asthma, would actually exacerbate it when we do get infected.
RE: ****INFORMATION I JUST RECEIVED FROM A FRIEND IN STATE DEPT****  
Sonic Youth : 3/16/2020 11:26 am : link
In comment 14837064 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.

"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."

He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.

--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
I got a text from a friend of a screenshot text message saying the same thing. Since the verbiage was word for word the same, this is probably an unfounded rumor.
I don’t know if this is actually true  
Bill L : 3/16/2020 11:28 am : link
But if it is
This guy’s an a-hole - ( New Window )
RE: Bradshaw, no worries dude.  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 11:28 am : link
In comment 14837109 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
In times like these, fake rumors are everywhere. It's sometimes hard to decipher what's real & what some bozo on Facebook made up that people are now regurgitating.


Thanks, SFGF. At least it was debunked and we know that now.
X Meadowlander.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 11:28 am : link
Hopefully all works out with your son.

What's the latest vis a vis our hospitals getting overwhelmed? They keep saying we're a week or so behind Italy & Europe.
RE: X Meadowlander.  
nygiants16 : 3/16/2020 11:31 am : link
In comment 14837130 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Hopefully all works out with your son.

What's the latest vis a vis our hospitals getting overwhelmed? They keep saying we're a week or so behind Italy & Europe.


i have a friend who works at morristown memorisl in new jersey, he said it is business as usual, no craziness
Half of French coronavirus ICU patients are under 60  
widmerseyebrow : 3/16/2020 11:35 am : link
Elderly are certainly at risk, but I've seen quite a bit to suggest it can be a serious fight for any age.
Link - ( New Window )
nygiants16  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 11:36 am : link
Thanks. Good to hear. Hopefully people are being smart. I think enough people are starting to understand the gravity of what we're in.
For what it’s worth  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 11:38 am : link
The DOW has started to kinda claw back from its drop this AM. Now it’s down “just over 1000”....
anyone hear about Cuomo waiving park fees at state parks?  
KDavies : 3/16/2020 11:39 am : link
That can't be true, can it?
RE: nygiants16  
nygiants16 : 3/16/2020 11:41 am : link
In comment 14837150 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Thanks. Good to hear. Hopefully people are being smart. I think enough people are starting to understand the gravity of what we're in.


i think some people need normalcy, for me i have really bad snxiety, ehen i am home and i feel stuck i go a little crazy...

whrn going to work i feel normal, doesnt mean i am stupid though, all my employees wearing gloves, every time customer comes in and leaves spary down what they touched..i am not being stupid i just need some sense of normal
RE: anyone hear about Cuomo waiving park fees at state parks?  
rocco8112 : 3/16/2020 11:48 am : link
In comment 14837162 KDavies said:
Quote:
That can't be true, can it?


yes its true
RE: RE: anyone hear about Cuomo waiving park fees at state parks?  
KDavies : 3/16/2020 11:51 am : link
In comment 14837179 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837162 KDavies said:


Quote:


That can't be true, can it?



yes its true


When people are told to stay home and out of public as much as possible, waiving fees at parks so people can congregate in public? Talk about mixed messages.
RE:  
Mr. Bungle : 3/16/2020 11:53 am : link
In comment 14837046 since1925 said:
Quote:
if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay.

And you'd be wrong for doing so.
I assume it is  
rocco8112 : 3/16/2020 11:54 am : link
because it is outdoors
RE: I assume it is  
KDavies : 3/16/2020 11:55 am : link
In comment 14837189 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
because it is outdoors


Yes, because you can't get the coronavirus outdoors. And there are no restrooms at parks ...
RE: RE: Someone at work still trotting out the 'Well, it's like the flu.'  
Jay in Toronto : 3/16/2020 11:58 am : link
In comment 14837046 since1925 said:
Quote:
In comment 14836923 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


line. Good God man...




I'm 67 so I'm home. But if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay. In either case, I would be washing my hands a lot.



Umm no, if you are 27, especially if there is reason to believe you have come in contact, even if you are asymptomatic, you can still give it to others, who can give it to others, some of whom may be older with worse consequences.
I always ask this  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 12:06 pm : link
but are people just ill informed about it or just being an asshole? Too many people keep saying they don't feel sick and just go about their daily routine.
RE: RE: I assume it is  
rocco8112 : 3/16/2020 12:10 pm : link
In comment 14837192 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 14837189 rocco8112 said:


Quote:


because it is outdoors



Yes, because you can't get the coronavirus outdoors. And there are no restrooms at parks ...


I hear ya, but that is what they did. It is official there are no fees.
UConn  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 12:12 pm : link
Probably a combination of the two. There are definitely some who like giving the finger to common sense & there are definitely some who are completely uniformed.
RE: UConn  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 12:23 pm : link
In comment 14837228 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Probably a combination of the two. There are definitely some who like giving the finger to common sense & there are definitely some who are completely uniformed.


My friend just texted me a picture of him at a bar with a beer. This is also someone who had to move back home and lives with his mom who's pushing 70. He so fucking stupid it hurts.

In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.
RE: For what it’s worth  
M.S. : 3/16/2020 12:24 pm : link
In comment 14837157 The_Boss said:
Quote:
The DOW has started to kinda claw back from its drop this AM. Now it’s down “just over 1000”....

The_Boss -- I mean no disrespect whatsoever, but I'm old enough and smart enough to say flat out that this is not worth a damn thing. Nada. Nothing.
RE: RE: RE: RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 12:25 pm : link
In comment 14837008 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14836989 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:



I posted I had a colleague down in Clearwater FL on vacation and he said the beach are packed as are restaurants. Looks normal other than stadiums empty.

That's not good.


I went to St. Pete Beach Saturday, it was busy but nowhere near the crowds it usually has St. Patricks weekend during spring break. Probably about half honestly, and I lived across the street for five years and I think they were expecting more with increased visibility from Floribama Shore filming there.
RE: RE: Someone at work still trotting out the 'Well, it's like the flu.'  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 3/16/2020 12:25 pm : link
In comment 14837046 since1925 said:
Quote:
In comment 14836923 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


line. Good God man...



Actually if you're under 40. The symptoms are pretty much like a mild flu. In China the death rate for people in their 20 and 30s, is 0.2% and because many cases go unreported it's probably lower. Since people tend to judge things by their personal experience, the comment makes sense.

However, it's not like the flu for his parents or grandparents. And it's overall effect is devastating. So your co-working isn't wrong....but he's wrong.

I'm 67 so I'm home. But if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay. In either case, I would be washing my hands a lot.

Bottom line, a comment like that is an opportunity to engage someone in helpful conversation. Use it. Help him out.

I'm not sure I would trust any stat put out by China. Their government is why this problem exists in the first place. There needs to be a firewall.
we wash thr local police in fairfirld nj  
nygiants16 : 3/16/2020 12:35 pm : link
so they want us to soray anti bacterial in their cars so i was talking to one today, he said as of right now the hospitals are fine in the area..fwiw
RE: RE: UConn  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 12:35 pm : link
In comment 14837254 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837228 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


Probably a combination of the two. There are definitely some who like giving the finger to common sense & there are definitely some who are completely uniformed.



My friend just texted me a picture of him at a bar with a beer. This is also someone who had to move back home and lives with his mom who's pushing 70. He so fucking stupid it hurts.

In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.


Your friend sounds like a fucking moron. The CDC thing sounds like bunk, the absolute last thing the CDC does it lie to the general public, that creates more panic with the inevitability it is found out and losing complete trust in the CDC which creates panic. This article explains how "airborne" it is. Technically yes, but in real world application essentially no.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: UConn  
Motley Two : 3/16/2020 12:35 pm : link
In comment 14837254 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837228 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


Probably a combination of the two. There are definitely some who like giving the finger to common sense & there are definitely some who are completely uniformed.



My friend just texted me a picture of him at a bar with a beer. This is also someone who had to move back home and lives with his mom who's pushing 70. He so fucking stupid it hurts.

In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.


Well that's scary.
RE: Half of French coronavirus ICU patients are under 60  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 12:37 pm : link
In comment 14837145 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
Elderly are certainly at risk, but I've seen quite a bit to suggest it can be a serious fight for any age. Link - ( New Window )


It isn't just the elderly at risk, its the unhealthy as well with what seems pretty devastating risks to individuals that fall in both groups.

Middle age and having underlying health factors seems to be a risk as well.
RE: RE: We have seen a handful of cases in my county  
RDJR : 3/16/2020 12:37 pm : link
In comment 14836984 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14836973 X said:


Quote:


in eastern Florida and no significant impact that I have noticed. The epicenter of the virus for the state is in southwest FL where there have been a few deaths and also where my 82 year old mother lives.

I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.

Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.



How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.


About 40 new cases a day, however, testing has lagged. Also, Broward and Dade have many more cases than the rest of the state. The prior post about SWFL is not correct.
This is the kind of  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 12:38 pm : link
thing that is so stupid it's not worth sharing.

Quote:

In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.


All the friends who are infectious disease experts are suddenly crawling out of the woodwork. And the dentist makes it somehow credible?

Reminds me of this:
My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with a girl who saw Ferris pass-out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it’s pretty serious.

RE: RE: Downtown Binghamton NY Saturday...  
.McL. : 3/16/2020 12:39 pm : link
In comment 14837112 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14837040 x meadowlander said:


Quote:


...I was shocked to see the St Pat's Pub Crawl wasn't cancelled.

Dumbasses.

My son works at a local hospital, we're highly concerned. They have one case, and are expecting to get overwhelmed pretty quickly.

At Ithaca College, person was tested May 5th came back negative. Over the weekend they tested positive - nearly a full week went by with this person presuming they didn't have it.

What REALLY sucks is ALLERGY season is about to kick in, confusing people more.



I’d be worried that allergies, more to the point, allergic asthma, would actually exacerbate it when we do get infected.

That is my fear, that is the kind of asthma I suffer from... Too much dust, and the wheezing starts.
Other than that, the only other time I notice it it when I get the flu, which I did about about 5 weeks ago. Still getting an asthmatic cough. But it is slowly going away.
RE: This is the kind of  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 12:45 pm : link
In comment 14837292 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
thing that is so stupid it's not worth sharing.



Quote:



In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.



All the friends who are infectious disease experts are suddenly crawling out of the woodwork. And the dentist makes it somehow credible?

Reminds me of this:
My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with a girl who saw Ferris pass-out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it’s pretty serious.


Uhh, what?

I'm passing along info from people in the medical field. My friend who is a dentist is good friends with a doctor on the front lines with whom he went to school. Its like you didn't even read what I wrote, or did but think anything second hand should be ignored.

I can't personally verify anything, but none of us can (so I guess delete the thread?). Its nothing more than a bit of information that I haven't read yet - feel free to ignore it if you think its the same thing as it coming from your cousins plumber.
RE: RE: RE: Downtown Binghamton NY Saturday...  
Bill L : 3/16/2020 12:45 pm : link
In comment 14837293 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14837112 Bill L said:


Quote:


In comment 14837040 x meadowlander said:


Quote:


...I was shocked to see the St Pat's Pub Crawl wasn't cancelled.

Dumbasses.

My son works at a local hospital, we're highly concerned. They have one case, and are expecting to get overwhelmed pretty quickly.

At Ithaca College, person was tested May 5th came back negative. Over the weekend they tested positive - nearly a full week went by with this person presuming they didn't have it.

What REALLY sucks is ALLERGY season is about to kick in, confusing people more.



I’d be worried that allergies, more to the point, allergic asthma, would actually exacerbate it when we do get infected.


That is my fear, that is the kind of asthma I suffer from... Too much dust, and the wheezing starts.
Other than that, the only other time I notice it it when I get the flu, which I did about about 5 weeks ago. Still getting an asthmatic cough. But it is slowly going away.


That’s exactly where I am. I tested positive for the flu last week. It’s gone but the cough and congestion remain.
Several headlines I've seen today  
.McL. : 3/16/2020 12:49 pm : link
NSAIDs including ibuprofen may exacerbate the disease

Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle is starting clinical trials on a vaccine (don't get too excited, it's really early and lots of trials to go, still 12 - 18 months away)

NJ: A curfew from 8pn to 5am has been imposed. NY & NJ: Movie theaters, Gyms, and Casinos are closed - only take-out restaurants are allowed to be open, gatherings of 50+ are banned
the best advice I read is that you should behave  
oghwga : 3/16/2020 12:51 pm : link
as if you already have it, and don't want to give it to anyone else, rather than just thinking that you'll be careful and you won't get it.

They're still lining up at the Costco by me.
and to further my point from above  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 12:52 pm : link
the CDC is claiming its transmittable up to 6 feet. The problem with that is many believe its only been tested up to 6 feet. Its very likely (based on info from around the world) and people i've talked to and heard from, that "within 6 feet" is false.
Come on Uconn you know better than that  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 12:52 pm : link
this is really not sharing information from an expert.

it's is ridiculously stupid.

Quote:
...CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it..


How does labeling it or not change reality and what we have the supplies to handle or not. What difference does it make?

This is exactly the kind of bullshit that some people eat up, but until you see a source shouldn't share.

And not my dentist friend, heard it from an "infectious disease expert"
While the information is interesting, it does create a sense of panic  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 12:54 pm : link
as clearly demonstrated on this thread someone saying thats scary.

I mean it doesn't sound accurate at all to me, a quick google search proved it to be technically accurate but no where near as bad as it the story makes it out to be and it is how hearsay becomes truth.

I feel the same way from hearing from healthcare workers on the frontlines before awareness became widespread. Like it is interesting but not particularly useful. It is why I liked what Milton posted, which I thought it was interesting because people derided him for it are the same people that are lapping up every story from hospital workers on the frontlines.
Everyone hates bankers, but they generally look at things through a very big picture lense (or at least try to) and have a ton of money on the line in being correct.

I'd be hesitant to post stuff on here  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 12:56 pm : link
that is third hand gossip/isn't completely 100%. A lot of us-well @ me-are pretty scared of where this is going & we don't need to be scared any further by information that isn't true, even if that's not your intent.
RE: Come on Uconn you know better than that  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 12:56 pm : link
In comment 14837320 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
this is really not sharing information from an expert.

it's is ridiculously stupid.



Quote:


...CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it..



How does labeling it or not change reality and what we have the supplies to handle or not. What difference does it make?

This is exactly the kind of bullshit that some people eat up, but until you see a source shouldn't share.

And not my dentist friend, heard it from an "infectious disease expert"


Thats exactly when my BS meter went up. The CDC has pretty much stated time and time again, they are forced to be honest, because the inevitabilty of not being honest would create the same panic when it is eventually found out plus the added mistrust of all information coming from them. Logically it doesnt track at all.
The CDC just said something to the effect that in certain, limited  
PatersonPlank : 3/16/2020 1:00 pm : link
cases it can be transmitted through the air. The primary case in a medical facility that has conditions that aid this. So they have made sure that people in surgery rooms, etc. follow the protocal already in place for airborne things.

Doesn't sound catastrophic to me. Some people jsut seem more prone to over reactions, just like on the game threads when we are down by 10 pts in the 1st and some declare the game is over.
.  
figgy2989 : 3/16/2020 1:01 pm : link
Dr. Osterholm is  
rocco8112 : 3/16/2020 1:02 pm : link
an infectious disease expert, he works for something called Center for Disease Research and Policy out of the University of Minnesota. I have heard him say in multiple interviews now a major mode of transmission is by breathing it in.

Droplet to airborne transmission is on a spectrum. This virus is somewhere on there allowing for airborne transmission.

Last interview I saw he used the old saying if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck regarding airborne transmission. Now, that is not a very scientific explanation, but he said it spreads like flu and trying to contain flu is like trying to contain the wind. He also has stated that he and others at his organization believe that when China lifts their lockdown, the virus may resurface there in a major way.

Guy doesn't seem like a quack to me.

Cuomo has basically said there are not enough beds and equipment here in NYS. He has rightfully called for drastic action to retrofit and construct other facilities for caring for the sick. There are now articles of medical workers, two I have seen, in critical condition with this from treating others on the front line. We are a week away from a very possible medical system collapse. So much time was lost wondering if this thing would come, when it was already here, and what it would do when it came, when it was causing a double digit hospitalization rate everywhere it went. When Iran's government offcials starting dying and Italy started it's crisis, alarm bells should have gone off here. All of this could be seen on open source info.

Plus, it spreads like wildfire, including people with no symptoms, the second NBA player who tested positive was on TV this morning saying he feels like he could play a seven game series, yet he has it.

This is the real deal. It seems to have some ability to spread by air, and it has asymptomatic people out there who have it.

So much damage may have been prevented with much of these current actions taken at least a week ago.

Now, with exponential growth, there will be Italy like conditions all over the USA.

A story I heard in an interview that sums this up.

Let's say this virus was in a petri dish and it was a given it would take 60 minutes for the virus to fill the dish completely. Pose the question: At what time of that 60 minute duration would the dish be half full? Almost anyone would day, 30 minutes. That answer would be incorrect, the dish would be half full at 59 minutes.

That is what we are dealing with here, the US, and big cities like NY are now approaching that 59 to sixty minute threshold. This is the real deal and the governor has already said the system can't cope. It is a war and the virus is winning.



Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: This is the kind of  
.McL. : 3/16/2020 1:02 pm : link
In comment 14837306 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837292 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


thing that is so stupid it's not worth sharing.



Quote:



In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.



All the friends who are infectious disease experts are suddenly crawling out of the woodwork. And the dentist makes it somehow credible?

Reminds me of this:
My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with a girl who saw Ferris pass-out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it’s pretty serious.




Uhh, what?

I'm passing along info from people in the medical field. My friend who is a dentist is good friends with a doctor on the front lines with whom he went to school. Its like you didn't even read what I wrote, or did but think anything second hand should be ignored.

I can't personally verify anything, but none of us can (so I guess delete the thread?). Its nothing more than a bit of information that I haven't read yet - feel free to ignore it if you think its the same thing as it coming from your cousins plumber.


Actually we have known this for a while. There were scientific journals published last week that revealed a number of things.

1) In aerosol, even tiny droplets that can remain aloft for hours, the virus can live in the air at least 3 hours. In a few rare cases it live as long as 7...

2) Aerosol droplets with virus will spread indoors up to 30 ft. (if it lives for 3 hours this seems low, but that is what it said)

3) It lives for days on various surfaces:
Cardboard: 3 days
Vairous Metals: from 5 to 8 days depending on the metal
Plastic: up to 9 days

So try to avoid anyplace where people have gathered recently (try to avoid people period). Disinfect everything you get, packages including contents, mail, etc. One expert said "assume everything is infected".
I passed along what I heard  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 1:05 pm : link
I find it interesting is all. It doesn't change anything I have or have not been doing. Its airborne, just likely further than 6 feet.

Health personnel from other countries is recommending distancing between other of alteast 4 meters. We were also told a couple weeks ago that masks don't do anything but keep you from touching your face - well that isn't true either.
these numbers are not encouraging at all  
Heisenberg : 3/16/2020 1:07 pm : link
RE: I'd be hesitant to post stuff on here  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 1:09 pm : link
In comment 14837325 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
that is third hand gossip/isn't completely 100%. A lot of us-well @ me-are pretty scared of where this is going & we don't need to be scared any further by information that isn't true, even if that's not your intent.


There's very little out there that has been verified as 100% accurate. In my post if I took out everything and just said "reports are stating that this is likely contagious past the 6ft threshold the CDC is publishing" there wouldn't be any backlash. Furthermore, its likely true anyway. Why just 6 feet - how did they come up with that exact number?
Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
PatersonPlank : 3/16/2020 1:10 pm : link
so their numbers represent a much large %
RE: RE: I'd be hesitant to post stuff on here  
bigblue5611_2 : 3/16/2020 1:15 pm : link
In comment 14837363 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837325 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


that is third hand gossip/isn't completely 100%. A lot of us-well @ me-are pretty scared of where this is going & we don't need to be scared any further by information that isn't true, even if that's not your intent.



There's very little out there that has been verified as 100% accurate. In my post if I took out everything and just said "reports are stating that this is likely contagious past the 6ft threshold the CDC is publishing" there wouldn't be any backlash. Furthermore, its likely true anyway. Why just 6 feet - how did they come up with that exact number?


I believe 6 ft is the distance that a cough/sneeze could have the spit/mucus droplets travel.
It's comical how the state of Connecticut can't  
Knineteen : 3/16/2020 1:15 pm : link
do anything to the Indian Casinos should they decide to stay open.
All non-essential businesses are being  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/16/2020 1:15 pm : link
Closed in Philadelphia.
RE: Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
Heisenberg : 3/16/2020 1:17 pm : link
In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
so their numbers represent a much large %


Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.
Here is the WHO stance on the airborne comments  
PatersonPlank : 3/16/2020 1:22 pm : link
Has more to do with certain "procedures" that happen in things like surgery rooms (at least thats the way I read it)


Link - ( New Window )
All Peace Corps volunteers from Eastern Europe  
montanagiant : 3/16/2020 1:27 pm : link
Are being recalled to the States. My daughter is one of them and she must go into a 14-day self-quarantine.

We own an Airbnb where we are going to put her up in but that means we have to cancel a 2-day reservation set for the 23rd of March and a 1-week cancellation for the 1st of April.
Thankfully Airbnb has the following rule in place for the Coronavirus:

Quote:
All reservations made before March 14th, with check-in dates from March 14th through April 14th, qualify for penalty-free cancellations. Both hosts and guests may choose to cancel the booking.


So if you have an Airbnb or are concerned you will lose money for a Reservation you made prior to March 14th you can now cancel penalty free
RE: RE: Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
PatersonPlank : 3/16/2020 1:27 pm : link
In comment 14837387 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


so their numbers represent a much large %



Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.


It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.
FYI people put Neosporin in their nostrils when flying  
gtt350 : 3/16/2020 1:30 pm : link
this does nothing because it's anti bacterial,
However any barrier Neosporin,vasoline, coconut oil even Saline spray helps keep nostrils moist and does put up and extra barrier for virus,
Dry nostrils are more vulnerable.
RE: RE: RE: Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 1:43 pm : link
In comment 14837416 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14837387 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


so their numbers represent a much large %



Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.



It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.


No it doesn't. It isn't just a math equation, there's a ton of variables that you aren't accounting for.

The US has 2 coasts that are 3,000 miles apart. It hit the west coast hard and took a while to get here (from the west coast and europe) and now its starting its damage in the NE. We don't yet know the rate of spread, its still too early.

It probably makes more sense to compare California to Italy since the virus is there and is growing, population is in the ball park and you can move around the state, in theory, the same way people in Italy would move around.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
PatersonPlank : 3/16/2020 2:11 pm : link
In comment 14837429 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837416 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


In comment 14837387 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


so their numbers represent a much large %



Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.



It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.



No it doesn't. It isn't just a math equation, there's a ton of variables that you aren't accounting for.

The US has 2 coasts that are 3,000 miles apart. It hit the west coast hard and took a while to get here (from the west coast and europe) and now its starting its damage in the NE. We don't yet know the rate of spread, its still too early.

It probably makes more sense to compare California to Italy since the virus is there and is growing, population is in the ball park and you can move around the state, in theory, the same way people in Italy would move around.


Correct, its just math. That is what I was trying to point out, you can't just say the growth is like Italy. Who knows how many more people here have been exposed than in Italy. Since there is at least one case in all states except WV, then you could guess its many more, but who really knows. I was responding to the "growth rates being the same" comment. Also just stating take California is a major over simplification. People can move freely all around, and many people continually travel to/from CA. I was there myself 4 weeks ago before all this really blew up.
RE: RE: RE: Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
Heisenberg : 3/16/2020 2:23 pm : link
In comment 14837416 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14837387 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


so their numbers represent a much large %



Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.



It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.


you have the definition of growth rate completely wrong. Please go do some googling.
RE: RE: RE: Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
.McL. : 3/16/2020 2:25 pm : link
In comment 14837416 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14837387 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


so their numbers represent a much large %



Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.



It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.

The virus doesn't care about nationality, it doesn't care about population size. The virus does care about population density. In the US the majority of the population is located in narrow bands along the coasts. There are a handful of population centers. The virus will do its exponential expansion thing in those areas just fine. It may spread a little slower to rural areas where people are more spread out and thus have a natural form of social distancing. But that is only about 25% of the US population.
So far the virus has been doubling in the US every 2.5 - 3 days. Which is consistent with Italy. It is the doubling rate that is important, not the size of the population. If the population is 6x larger all that means is it takes 1 or 2 more doubling cycles to get everybody.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
.McL. : 3/16/2020 2:37 pm : link
In comment 14837452 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
In comment 14837416 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


In comment 14837387 Heisenberg said:


Quote:


In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


so their numbers represent a much large %



Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.



It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.



you have the definition of growth rate completely wrong. Please go do some googling.

Agreed, growth rate has nothing to do with % of population. It is the rate at which the number of infected doubles. In the US it has been every 2.5 to 3 days.
Idris Elba  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 2:58 pm : link
just posted that he tested positive this morning.
The  
AcidTest : 3/16/2020 3:03 pm : link
virus is unstoppable. Somebody wrote here a few weeks ago that the "virus is in control," was openly mocked. Well, it is in control. Forty to seventy percent of people have been estimated to get it. Split the difference and say 55% do. That's about 4.235 billion. With a 1% fatality rate, that's 42.35 million dead. That number is probably at least 10 million higher because the focus on treating coronavirus patients will come at the expense of being able to treat people with other medical conditions. Hundreds of millions of others who recover will still suffer greatly. This will kill 50 - 60 million people, and destroy the global economy for years.
AcidTest.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 3:04 pm : link
Thank you for that. I'm now going to bring out a funnel.
RE: The  
Danny Kanell : 3/16/2020 3:06 pm : link
In comment 14837502 AcidTest said:
Quote:
virus is unstoppable. Somebody wrote here a few weeks ago that the "virus is in control," was openly mocked. Well, it is in control. Forty to seventy percent of people have been estimated to get it. Split the difference and say 55% do. That's about 4.235 billion. With a 1% fatality rate, that's 42.35 million dead. That number is probably at least 10 million higher because the focus on treating coronavirus patients will come at the expense of being able to treat people with other medical conditions. Hundreds of millions of others who recover will still suffer greatly. This will kill 50 - 60 million people, and destroy the global economy for years.


Oh
RE: Idris Elba  
figgy2989 : 3/16/2020 3:07 pm : link
In comment 14837497 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
just posted that he tested positive this morning.


Stringer should have never fucked over Avon...
My kid's pediatrician  
Knineteen : 3/16/2020 3:13 pm : link
and my dentist are both closed for the next 2 weeks.

Not exactly sure how that works. If I need to test my kid for strep, what happens?
RE: My kid's pediatrician  
cjac : 3/16/2020 3:52 pm : link
In comment 14837527 Knineteen said:
Quote:
and my dentist are both closed for the next 2 weeks.

Not exactly sure how that works. If I need to test my kid for strep, what happens?


Urgent Care maybe?
Over the weekend  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 3:54 pm : link
a Japanese man who previously tested positive (diamond princess cruise ship passenger), recovered and tested negative was reported to be reinfected.

I guess I always felt it was a little like chicken pox and once you get it you don't get it again.

It appears not to be the case, so how do you contain this then without a vaccine?

You'll never get 100% eradication, right?

Is it common to be reinfected? I have since read a handful of others were also reinfected.
I said the virus was in control  
rocco8112 : 3/16/2020 3:55 pm : link
The main idea being that it is dictating world events and that it would in the future be looked at as a major historical event that will likely impact all of us in some way

There was mocking, but it seems now that this really is a big deal that is driving world events. I also think no one in the world knows exactly how this will play out.

In my opinion, the conclusion that the virus was in control could be drawn simply by reading, watching and analyzing quality open source media and information from the Internet. You did not have to be a CIA agent or work at the NSA to see this threat to the American people and economy coming.
Went to my local gun dealer to check on...  
bw in dc : 3/16/2020 4:00 pm : link
available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.

They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
For those looking for a distraction in the form of sports  
The_Boss : 3/16/2020 4:06 pm : link
MLB has further delayed the start of the year. They’re looking at around June 1.
RE: For those looking for a distraction in the form of sports  
figgy2989 : 3/16/2020 4:07 pm : link
In comment 14837576 The_Boss said:
Quote:
MLB has further delayed the start of the year. They’re looking at around June 1.


They actually had bowling live the other day (no fans obviously), but I found myself watching that. Is this really what we are down to at this point?
RE: Went to my local gun dealer to check on...  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 4:11 pm : link
In comment 14837560 bw in dc said:
Quote:
available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.

They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...


I usually keep 1000 rounds on hand, I have 5000 now. If that makes me guilty of hoarding I apologize. There was probably 5 million rounds in the store where I bought it before this blew up, just felt like I should have more.

RE: Went to my local gun dealer to check on...  
MOOPS : 3/16/2020 4:11 pm : link
In comment 14837560 bw in dc said:
Quote:
available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.

They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...



Doesn't surprise me. People preparing for armageddon.
The ENTIRE STATE OF PA  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/16/2020 4:11 pm : link
Is in a 14 day shut down.
RE: The ENTIRE STATE OF PA  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 4:12 pm : link
In comment 14837588 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
Is in a 14 day shut down.


Smart. I wonder if other states will follow suit.
I heard PA  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 4:14 pm : link
shut down includes liquor stores.

Not sure if that means beer too.

now is when some people will be significantly tested.

Pjcas  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 4:15 pm : link
RAID THE LIQUOR STORES!
RE: The ENTIRE STATE OF PA  
Eli Wilson : 3/16/2020 4:17 pm : link
In comment 14837588 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
Is in a 14 day shut down.


What does that mean - you can't leave your house, city, state or what?
Tampa Bay just enacted last call at 9pm for bars and restaurants.  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 4:18 pm : link
.
RE: The ENTIRE STATE OF PA  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 4:19 pm : link
In comment 14837588 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
Is in a 14 day shut down.


So people aren't allowed to leave their house?
RE: Pjcas  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 4:19 pm : link
In comment 14837593 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
RAID THE LIQUOR STORES!


you know some people were thinking, eh whatever, I get three weeks to work from home, I'll order in, watch netflix, and drink a shitload for three weeks.

Now those people, the ones who were accepting and calm, are going to panic.

lol.
Sooooooo  
Koldegaard : 3/16/2020 4:22 pm : link
You guys need ammo to fight the virus? :-)

Why would guns/ammo be in demand?

As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?

... and yes I know about the second amendment.

RE: Sooooooo  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 4:25 pm : link
In comment 14837609 Koldegaard said:
Quote:
You guys need ammo to fight the virus? :-)

Why would guns/ammo be in demand?

As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?

... and yes I know about the second amendment.


When people panic they don't think rationally, hence the run on grocery stores and guns. I mean if you scared you cling to your guns and buy a fuckton of groceries for a sense of control.
RE: I heard PA  
jestersdead : 3/16/2020 4:26 pm : link
In comment 14837592 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
shut down includes liquor stores.

Not sure if that means beer too.

now is when some people will be significantly tested.

from my buddies in PA, the liquor stores are controlled by the state and thats why they are shutting down. Beer stores still open
Tormund Giantsbane just announced he tested positive  
mfsd : 3/16/2020 5:01 pm : link
or at least, Kristopher Hivju, the actor who played him in GoT

Shits getting serious
i havent't been around much  
Producer : 3/16/2020 5:12 pm : link
i actually had a brush with this in New Rochelle but i have no symptoms and didn't get it, but i am assuming FMiC has shut his mouth.
Koldegaard  
MOOPS : 3/16/2020 5:14 pm : link
Most gun owners are responsible people who are stocking up to protect their stuff.

Then there are the small group of wingnuts who are getting ready for a 'Mad Max' scenario, thinking when they run out of their stuff, they'll just take what they need from the other guy.

Such is life in a society where guns are everywhere.
RE: RE: The ENTIRE STATE OF PA  
MetsAreBack : 3/16/2020 5:17 pm : link
In comment 14837597 Eli Wilson said:
Quote:
In comment 14837588 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


Is in a 14 day shut down.



What does that mean - you can't leave your house, city, state or what?



But what is the point of this if other states, particularly neighboring states, dont do the same thing?
RE: Dr. Osterholm is  
micky : 3/16/2020 5:18 pm : link
In comment 14837339 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
an infectious disease expert, he works for something called Center for Disease Research and Policy out of the University of Minnesota. I have heard him say in multiple interviews now a major mode of transmission is by breathing it in.

Droplet to airborne transmission is on a spectrum. This virus is somewhere on there allowing for airborne transmission.

Last interview I saw he used the old saying if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck regarding airborne transmission. Now, that is not a very scientific explanation, but he said it spreads like flu and trying to contain flu is like trying to contain the wind. He also has stated that he and others at his organization believe that when China lifts their lockdown, the virus may resurface there in a major way.

Guy doesn't seem like a quack to me.

Cuomo has basically said there are not enough beds and equipment here in NYS. He has rightfully called for drastic action to retrofit and construct other facilities for caring for the sick. There are now articles of medical workers, two I have seen, in critical condition with this from treating others on the front line. We are a week away from a very possible medical system collapse. So much time was lost wondering if this thing would come, when it was already here, and what it would do when it came, when it was causing a double digit hospitalization rate everywhere it went. When Iran's government offcials starting dying and Italy started it's crisis, alarm bells should have gone off here. All of this could be seen on open source info.

Plus, it spreads like wildfire, including people with no symptoms, the second NBA player who tested positive was on TV this morning saying he feels like he could play a seven game series, yet he has it.

This is the real deal. It seems to have some ability to spread by air, and it has asymptomatic people out there who have it.

So much damage may have been prevented with much of these current actions taken at least a week ago.

Now, with exponential growth, there will be Italy like conditions all over the USA.

A story I heard in an interview that sums this up.

Let's say this virus was in a petri dish and it was a given it would take 60 minutes for the virus to fill the dish completely. Pose the question: At what time of that 60 minute duration would the dish be half full? Almost anyone would day, 30 minutes. That answer would be incorrect, the dish would be half full at 59 minutes.

That is what we are dealing with here, the US, and big cities like NY are now approaching that 59 to sixty minute threshold. This is the real deal and the governor has already said the system can't cope. It is a war and the virus is winning.

Link - ( New Window )



The end of civilization is here
RE: RE: Dr. Osterholm is  
rocco8112 : 3/16/2020 5:29 pm : link
In comment 14837681 micky said:
Quote:
In comment 14837339 rocco8112 said:


Quote:


an infectious disease expert, he works for something called Center for Disease Research and Policy out of the University of Minnesota. I have heard him say in multiple interviews now a major mode of transmission is by breathing it in.

Droplet to airborne transmission is on a spectrum. This virus is somewhere on there allowing for airborne transmission.

Last interview I saw he used the old saying if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck regarding airborne transmission. Now, that is not a very scientific explanation, but he said it spreads like flu and trying to contain flu is like trying to contain the wind. He also has stated that he and others at his organization believe that when China lifts their lockdown, the virus may resurface there in a major way.

Guy doesn't seem like a quack to me.

Cuomo has basically said there are not enough beds and equipment here in NYS. He has rightfully called for drastic action to retrofit and construct other facilities for caring for the sick. There are now articles of medical workers, two I have seen, in critical condition with this from treating others on the front line. We are a week away from a very possible medical system collapse. So much time was lost wondering if this thing would come, when it was already here, and what it would do when it came, when it was causing a double digit hospitalization rate everywhere it went. When Iran's government offcials starting dying and Italy started it's crisis, alarm bells should have gone off here. All of this could be seen on open source info.

Plus, it spreads like wildfire, including people with no symptoms, the second NBA player who tested positive was on TV this morning saying he feels like he could play a seven game series, yet he has it.

This is the real deal. It seems to have some ability to spread by air, and it has asymptomatic people out there who have it.

So much damage may have been prevented with much of these current actions taken at least a week ago.

Now, with exponential growth, there will be Italy like conditions all over the USA.

A story I heard in an interview that sums this up.

Let's say this virus was in a petri dish and it was a given it would take 60 minutes for the virus to fill the dish completely. Pose the question: At what time of that 60 minute duration would the dish be half full? Almost anyone would day, 30 minutes. That answer would be incorrect, the dish would be half full at 59 minutes.

That is what we are dealing with here, the US, and big cities like NY are now approaching that 59 to sixty minute threshold. This is the real deal and the governor has already said the system can't cope. It is a war and the virus is winning.

Link - ( New Window )




The end of civilization is here


It is a very serious situation, I am not sure it is the end of civilization
RE: Sooooooo  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 5:39 pm : link
In comment 14837609 Koldegaard said:
Quote:
You guys need ammo to fight the virus? :-)

Why would guns/ammo be in demand?

As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?

... and yes I know about the second amendment.

Obviously firearms won't protect you from a virus, I know that was facetious.

I only use my firearms recreationally, at least that's all I plan on using them for. I enjoy going to the range and becoming more and more proficient in marksmanship with various types of firearms. Handguns, shotguns, rifles, and even tried and enjoy skeet. I enjoy archery as well - much harder than some people may think.

I would use a firearm in self defense if it came to it, but so far it has not and i hope it never does.

To the point about ammo though, I think it all comes with the "be prepared" motto. Same reason people hoard toilet paper, load up on booze, load up on canned goods, water, etc. I guess I just view ammo as part of the preparation.

Since I have enough ammo, I didn't need to buy any more once things became more serious with the virus, but if I didn't I absolutely would - along with other items (besides the aforementioned food, water and TP - making sure my gas cans are full, we have plenty of batteries, working flash lights, cash, etc.)

Just seems like common sense to me.
RE: RE: Sooooooo  
Koldegaard : 3/16/2020 5:42 pm : link
In comment 14837721 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837609 Koldegaard said:


Quote:


You guys need ammo to fight the virus? :-)

Why would guns/ammo be in demand?

As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?

... and yes I know about the second amendment.



Obviously firearms won't protect you from a virus, I know that was facetious.

I only use my firearms recreationally, at least that's all I plan on using them for. I enjoy going to the range and becoming more and more proficient in marksmanship with various types of firearms. Handguns, shotguns, rifles, and even tried and enjoy skeet. I enjoy archery as well - much harder than some people may think.

I would use a firearm in self defense if it came to it, but so far it has not and i hope it never does.

To the point about ammo though, I think it all comes with the "be prepared" motto. Same reason people hoard toilet paper, load up on booze, load up on canned goods, water, etc. I guess I just view ammo as part of the preparation.

Since I have enough ammo, I didn't need to buy any more once things became more serious with the virus, but if I didn't I absolutely would - along with other items (besides the aforementioned food, water and TP - making sure my gas cans are full, we have plenty of batteries, working flash lights, cash, etc.)

Just seems like common sense to me.


Thank you for the serious answer (and the other poster as well)

I find it very interesting to talk about guns and the second amendment, as it is so different from our way of thinking.

Stay safe over there.
Thank you  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 5:43 pm : link
and same to you Koldegaard
People really need to stop hoarding shit at the grocery store, but  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 5:50 pm : link
since that is never going to happen the grocery stores need to enable rationing. Everything is going to sell anyway, but I now have to make twice as many trips to the grocery store than usual because they never have anything. They already started with the ground beef, but shit I'm about to run out of paper towels. Guess I won't be disenfecting shit pretty soon.
RE: RE: RE: Italy's population is about 1/5 to 1/6 of the US  
MetsAreBack : 3/16/2020 6:09 pm : link
In comment 14837416 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:


It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.


I have no idea what you're talking about... not that it matters anyway because we know we've massively underestimated the carriers currently since we're still not doing much testing.
RE: People really need to stop hoarding shit at the grocery store, but  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 6:33 pm : link
In comment 14837736 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
since that is never going to happen the grocery stores need to enable rationing. Everything is going to sell anyway, but I now have to make twice as many trips to the grocery store than usual because they never have anything. They already started with the ground beef, but shit I'm about to run out of paper towels. Guess I won't be disenfecting shit pretty soon.


You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.

Rationing would result in riots. The better bet is to make sure the supply chain remains in tact (your state or the gov) and if you miss out on the food, get there first tomorrow. Making 2 trips to the store when you are already home all day from work (maybe you aren’t but most are) doesn’t seem like a big deal.
RE: RE: People really need to stop hoarding shit at the grocery store, but  
figgy2989 : 3/16/2020 6:47 pm : link
In comment 14837792 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837736 Zeke's Alibi said:






You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.


You know a lot of people that take a shit and use a regular towel to wipe their ass?
No I dont  
UConn4523 : 3/16/2020 7:41 pm : link
but considering babies wear reusable diapers still (and used to exclusively back in the day) I think people would be fine. It’s toward the bottom of the list of things I’d need which is why it’s funny that it’s being hoarded.
RE: RE: People really need to stop hoarding shit at the grocery store, but  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 8:04 pm : link
In comment 14837792 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837736 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


since that is never going to happen the grocery stores need to enable rationing. Everything is going to sell anyway, but I now have to make twice as many trips to the grocery store than usual because they never have anything. They already started with the ground beef, but shit I'm about to run out of paper towels. Guess I won't be disenfecting shit pretty soon.



You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.

Rationing would result in riots. The better bet is to make sure the supply chain remains in tact (your state or the gov) and if you miss out on the food, get there first tomorrow. Making 2 trips to the store when you are already home all day from work (maybe you aren’t but most are) doesn’t seem like a big deal.


Rationing isn't resulting in riots anywhere else they are doing it. I just got off a demo with someone in Australia and many places started to ration toilet paper and paper towels. Lots of people are buying supplies for a months, when they'll inevitably be at the grocery store within a week or two because they forgot something or need produce. The supply chain isn't designated for that.

And I already talked to the manager at Publix, produce is gone by 9 am but trucks are running late all over the place for other stuff. Rice and Pasta were completely gone. And honestly the grocery store is one of the few places I want to go right now. I was actually surprised they had no easy access to wipes for carts.

I honestly would like to limit with trips to the grocery store because it is really the only place I'm directly in contact with many of these people in these risk groups. And it's really the only place they should be in public if no choice. I actually was looking around at the population and there were a ton of middle age people there, mostly unfit, with I'm sure underlying health conditions they probably have no idea about. I seriously wonder if these people think they are fine, because the one thing I learned as a personal trainer is your average person thinks they have a healthy diet, even some people with some really, really poor diets honestly. It seems like 2/3rds of people in middle age would fall into a risk group.
BAY AREA CLOSED UP  
Payasdaddy : 3/16/2020 8:28 pm : link
But I am considered essential because I am a CPA and have a tax deadline WTF hope IRS delays that shit soon
Pissed
I hate tax season more and more every yr
I agree with Zeke that people hoarding stuff is insane.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 8:28 pm : link
Then again, after reading AcidTest's post that like 55 million are going to die from this, YOLO!
Bergen County shutting down businesses tomorrow  
mattnyg05 : 3/16/2020 8:28 pm : link
Guess we’re all out of work. Hopefully they have a plan... if enough people do this maybe we can kill the thing.
RE: these numbers are not encouraging at all  
Tom in DC : 3/16/2020 8:55 pm : link
In comment 14837359 Heisenberg said:
Quote:


Hey Heisenberg, I wanted to know the source you used for the table. Its very interesting and troubling and I water to look over the source before I discussed it with others.

Thanks
RE: RE: Went to my local gun dealer to check on...  
RDJR : 3/16/2020 8:58 pm : link
In comment 14837586 pjcas18 said:
[quote] In comment 14837560 bw in dc said:


Quote:


available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.

They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...



I usually keep 1000 rounds on hand, I have 5000 now. If that makes me guilty of hoarding I apologize. There was probably 5 million rounds in the store where I bought it before this blew up, just felt like I should have more.

Why?
wife is near front lines for Kaiser in bay area  
Payasdaddy : 3/16/2020 9:00 pm : link
they are waiting for an onslaught within the next week or two
will probably go into disaster mode next week (like if there was an earthquake of course she is on hayward fault which is right under the hospital)
SHE IS A PEDIATRICIAN BUT THEY ARE PLANNING EVERYONE WORKING 12 HR SHIFTS 24 HRS A DAY
they are hopeful we didnt act too late but figure we will know within 2 weeks
RE: RE: RE: People really need to stop hoarding shit at the grocery store, but  
Matt M. : 3/16/2020 9:07 pm : link
In comment 14837891 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14837792 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


In comment 14837736 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


since that is never going to happen the grocery stores need to enable rationing. Everything is going to sell anyway, but I now have to make twice as many trips to the grocery store than usual because they never have anything. They already started with the ground beef, but shit I'm about to run out of paper towels. Guess I won't be disenfecting shit pretty soon.



You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.

Rationing would result in riots. The better bet is to make sure the supply chain remains in tact (your state or the gov) and if you miss out on the food, get there first tomorrow. Making 2 trips to the store when you are already home all day from work (maybe you aren’t but most are) doesn’t seem like a big deal.



Rationing isn't resulting in riots anywhere else they are doing it. I just got off a demo with someone in Australia and many places started to ration toilet paper and paper towels. Lots of people are buying supplies for a months, when they'll inevitably be at the grocery store within a week or two because they forgot something or need produce. The supply chain isn't designated for that.

And I already talked to the manager at Publix, produce is gone by 9 am but trucks are running late all over the place for other stuff. Rice and Pasta were completely gone. And honestly the grocery store is one of the few places I want to go right now. I was actually surprised they had no easy access to wipes for carts.

I honestly would like to limit with trips to the grocery store because it is really the only place I'm directly in contact with many of these people in these risk groups. And it's really the only place they should be in public if no choice. I actually was looking around at the population and there were a ton of middle age people there, mostly unfit, with I'm sure underlying health conditions they probably have no idea about. I seriously wonder if these people think they are fine, because the one thing I learned as a personal trainer is your average person thinks they have a healthy diet, even some people with some really, really poor diets honestly. It seems like 2/3rds of people in middle age would fall into a risk group.
I asked the manager at Trader Joe's if they would consider rationing. She looked at me like I was crazy and then nastily said it wouldn't be right for them to tell anyone what they can and can't buy.

I guess it is better business for them to allow people to buy 6 of everything so that the customers that waited in line for an hour just to get in have nothing to purchase.

Even with a basic citywide quarantine, there are people out there who will wake up in a month with more toilet paper, paper towels, pasta, etc. than they know what to do with, while other families (like mine) will be scrounging for what they need. It's really disgusting.
RE: RE: RE: RE: People really need to stop hoarding shit at the grocery store, but  
Matt M. : 3/16/2020 9:09 pm : link
In comment 14837986 Matt M. said:
Quote:
In comment 14837891 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


In comment 14837792 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


In comment 14837736 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


since that is never going to happen the grocery stores need to enable rationing. Everything is going to sell anyway, but I now have to make twice as many trips to the grocery store than usual because they never have anything. They already started with the ground beef, but shit I'm about to run out of paper towels. Guess I won't be disenfecting shit pretty soon.



You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.

Rationing would result in riots. The better bet is to make sure the supply chain remains in tact (your state or the gov) and if you miss out on the food, get there first tomorrow. Making 2 trips to the store when you are already home all day from work (maybe you aren’t but most are) doesn’t seem like a big deal.



Rationing isn't resulting in riots anywhere else they are doing it. I just got off a demo with someone in Australia and many places started to ration toilet paper and paper towels. Lots of people are buying supplies for a months, when they'll inevitably be at the grocery store within a week or two because they forgot something or need produce. The supply chain isn't designated for that.

And I already talked to the manager at Publix, produce is gone by 9 am but trucks are running late all over the place for other stuff. Rice and Pasta were completely gone. And honestly the grocery store is one of the few places I want to go right now. I was actually surprised they had no easy access to wipes for carts.

I honestly would like to limit with trips to the grocery store because it is really the only place I'm directly in contact with many of these people in these risk groups. And it's really the only place they should be in public if no choice. I actually was looking around at the population and there were a ton of middle age people there, mostly unfit, with I'm sure underlying health conditions they probably have no idea about. I seriously wonder if these people think they are fine, because the one thing I learned as a personal trainer is your average person thinks they have a healthy diet, even some people with some really, really poor diets honestly. It seems like 2/3rds of people in middle age would fall into a risk group.

I asked the manager at Trader Joe's if they would consider rationing. She looked at me like I was crazy and then nastily said it wouldn't be right for them to tell anyone what they can and can't buy.

I guess it is better business for them to allow people to buy 6 of everything so that the customers that waited in line for an hour just to get in have nothing to purchase.

Even with a basic citywide quarantine, there are people out there who will wake up in a month with more toilet paper, paper towels, pasta, etc. than they know what to do with, while other families (like mine) will be scrounging for what they need. It's really disgusting.
Also, even if other families ultimately are able to find what they need, it is likely to take trips to multiple stores, which is further exposing them. I had to go to 3 stores today to try to get basics.
also one of the papers discussed killing the virus on surfaces  
.McL. : 3/16/2020 9:25 pm : link
The concluded that Hydrogen Peroxide (0.5%), Ethanol 75+%, and hypochlorite (bleach based sprays and cleaners) inactivated the virus within 1 minute of exposure.
WTF are people in Clearwater, FL doing?  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 9:45 pm : link
Beaches were packed today.
Matt I've seen Costco limiting 1 big package per card holder.  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 9:48 pm : link
I could see a grocery store like Publix doing it because they are awesome, and have already started doing it with ground beef to make sure people are at least getting beef at a reasonable price that can't afford the pricier options. My boss was like I bought a bunch of rib eyes, it was the only thing left. Almost thinking of going the Omaha steak route. I laughed because at this point it might be worth it just to avoid the store and the madness and frustration there of nothing being available. There was literally no chicken again on my second trip. I

'm already spending significantly more in groceries because I'm buying a bunch of exotic and expensive fruit, leg of lamb from Publix instead of Costco (feel like a trip there will just be a waste when they are probably out of half the shit I buy), and the most expensive frozen veggies. Although I think I'm fortunate I was able to score stuff for the week on Friday night in a hidden freezer it seemed.

Also that store manager is so full of shit, they are all secretly loving it right now because their profits are skyrocketing. The one manager at Publix seemed like she was enjoying herself, probably a combo of the entertainment value, her being young and looked healthy, and record profits.

It also seems to me that due to the fact that it can just sit on surfaces for days the grocery doesn't seem all that much safer than take out or eating out. Someone grabs a box, puts it back on the shelf, you grab the box, put it in the cupboard for a couple days, a few people in the household grab it, one manages to get it in their mouth and boom everyone is infected. I mean more people at the grocery store may have contact with the food you bought then ordering out or whatever people normally do.
RE: WTF are people in Clearwater, FL doing?  
montanagiant : 3/16/2020 9:51 pm : link
In comment 14838033 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Beaches were packed today.

Springbreak
The virus  
XBRONX : 3/16/2020 9:51 pm : link
lasts on cardboard for 24 hours.
RE: WTF are people in Clearwater, FL doing?  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 9:53 pm : link
In comment 14838033 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Beaches were packed today.


I was talking about it with my buddy who I lived with in St. Pete Beach who still lives there. St Pete just enacted curfew but the beaches are going to fight tooth and nail. This is the busiest season for them. He manages a large chain surf shop and he doesn't think they'll end up setting up curfew for the beach. Too important to the lifeline of the beaches. I agreed with the sentiment, but I told him Clearwater is literally getting shamed online right now. The pressure will be to immense.

I think what you are seeing right now is all the kids that came down here friday/saturday can't just go home and they are already here. The next weekend will be a ton less because their parents who are generally paying for this probably will cut off the funds.

Montana.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 9:53 pm : link
Understood, but completely irresponsible. Yeah, I get if you're young-20s, 30s-you're probably not going to feel this @ all, but you could be a carrier & pass it on to someone older, someone with a weakened immune system...

People really need to take this seriously.
RE: The  
MetsAreBack : 3/16/2020 9:54 pm : link
In comment 14837502 AcidTest said:
Quote:
virus is unstoppable. Somebody wrote here a few weeks ago that the "virus is in control," was openly mocked. Well, it is in control. Forty to seventy percent of people have been estimated to get it. Split the difference and say 55% do. That's about 4.235 billion. With a 1% fatality rate, that's 42.35 million dead. That number is probably at least 10 million higher because the focus on treating coronavirus patients will come at the expense of being able to treat people with other medical conditions. Hundreds of millions of others who recover will still suffer greatly. This will kill 50 - 60 million people, and destroy the global economy for years.


Some people really need to take a deep breath. Beyond washing your hands, separating yourself as much as possible, eating and sleeping well... everything else is beyond your control. What good does it do to think like this?

And losing 0.7% of the world's population, with call it 70% of that ages 65+... isnt going to destroy the global economy for years. You're getting yourself all worked up and its helping no one.
MAB.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 9:58 pm : link
That post from AcidTest started me on a month plus bender so..., Haha.
RE: Sooooooo  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 10:12 pm : link
In comment 14837609 Koldegaard said:
Quote:
You guys need ammo to fight the virus? :-)

Why would guns/ammo be in demand?

As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?

... and yes I know about the second amendment.


If those that did not prepare properly decide to go shopping in neighbors homes, there is a need for protection. Did you see the videos of the streets of LA after the Rodney King verdict?

When the masses lose their shit, it’s more deadly than this virus. I’m glad I’ve been somewhat of a prepper my whole life. Now all the equipment I have is serving it’s purpose and not just an asset depreciating in a locked area.

Mocking people that think have protection is of importance seems a bit shortsighted considering the uncharted territory we are in at this time in our planets history.

I’ll also add, your European citizens have a very different mindset on average then Americans.
This mantra of “The virus is in control”  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 10:21 pm : link
Really needs to stop. We are in control. It’s a matter of US the people of earth, to evolve and adapt. We WILL over come this. We just all need to prepare for the fact we are all getting this thing at one time or another. In the meantime, do your best not to get it. Follow all standard protocols listed by the CDC. And for the love of God, don’t go the ER with a case of the sniffles. Use the ER as a last resort.

You know how they always say “In case of fire, do not panic, WALK to your nearest exit.” That is the way we should be behaving on a macro level right now. We don’t have zombies running the streets eating people’s brains. Our biggest issue is our own reaction to this. We are our own virus. We must contain ourselves and let the professionals get this figured out.

The economy is of concern no doubt. But everyone is suffering the same shitty market. So we will all reap the benefits from a massive rebound that comes when we get this under control. Focus on living your safest life for now, and stop with the panic.
Bradshaw.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/16/2020 10:24 pm : link
The worried well is the group that concerns me. The people who have a minor cold, but fear they have COVID-19 & just overwhelm the hospitals.
Guns  
OC2.0 : 3/16/2020 10:31 pm : link
You need them to guard ur toilet paper. My personal DHS is ready.
RE: Bradshaw.  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 10:48 pm : link
In comment 14838083 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
The worried well is the group that concerns me. The people who have a minor cold, but fear they have COVID-19 & just overwhelm the hospitals.


SFGF, that’s my biggest concern. The hypochondriacs, worry worts, and low information citizens. They will rush to the hospital at the first sneeze or cough. On top of them wasting valuable time and effort of our first line of defense and our greatest resource, they are preventing others who truly need it from care, AND actually exposing themselves to the real virus. Only to turn around and be sent home because they don’t have it. Or I should say didn’t have it, until they showed up at ground zero. And then they go back into the public and actually spread the damn thing.

There really should be PSAs regularly that tell people when they should think about going to the ER. We are our own worst enemy in this situation. If we can be calm and resolute we will be fine. If we panic we are going to make this a whole lot worse then it has to be.

RE: RE: Bradshaw.  
nygiants16 : 3/16/2020 10:51 pm : link
In comment 14838123 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
In comment 14838083 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


The worried well is the group that concerns me. The people who have a minor cold, but fear they have COVID-19 & just overwhelm the hospitals.



SFGF, that’s my biggest concern. The hypochondriacs, worry worts, and low information citizens. They will rush to the hospital at the first sneeze or cough. On top of them wasting valuable time and effort of our first line of defense and our greatest resource, they are preventing others who truly need it from care, AND actually exposing themselves to the real virus. Only to turn around and be sent home because they don’t have it. Or I should say didn’t have it, until they showed up at ground zero. And then they go back into the public and actually spread the damn thing.

There really should be PSAs regularly that tell people when they should think about going to the ER. We are our own worst enemy in this situation. If we can be calm and resolute we will be fine. If we panic we are going to make this a whole lot worse then it has to be.


that is why thr drive up testing is so important, if you really want to know, go to your personal doctor get a referral and go get tested..

if you have no symptomdls or even mild symptoms do not go to the hospital
RE: Montana.  
montanagiant : 3/16/2020 10:51 pm : link
In comment 14838043 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Understood, but completely irresponsible. Yeah, I get if you're young-20s, 30s-you're probably not going to feel this @ all, but you could be a carrier & pass it on to someone older, someone with a weakened immune system...

People really need to take this seriously.

I 100% agree
.  
pjcas18 : 3/16/2020 10:52 pm : link
It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 10:55 pm : link
that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
bradshaw44 : 3/16/2020 11:00 pm : link
In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.


The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
j_rud : 3/16/2020 11:02 pm : link
In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.


For many people, especially the uninsured, they have no primary care physician. Showing up to an ER is the only way theyll get treatment bc they know they wont be turned away. Not justifying, rationalizing, or making it political, just explaining why it happens even absent a health crisis. I work in a hospital in a low income neighborhood, our ER is always busy and is notoriously misused. Once this thing spikes its going to be a warzone.
RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/16/2020 11:36 pm : link
In comment 14838147 j_rud said:
Quote:
In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



For many people, especially the uninsured, they have no primary care physician. Showing up to an ER is the only way theyll get treatment bc they know they wont be turned away. Not justifying, rationalizing, or making it political, just explaining why it happens even absent a health crisis. I work in a hospital in a low income neighborhood, our ER is always busy and is notoriously misused. Once this thing spikes its going to be a warzone.


I wasn't making the point about the ER, even the doctors office in general. I wouldn't be going unless I thought it was likely I had it. His point was people flooding all healthcare systems with allergies, a minor symptoms that turn out not to COVID, and healthy people all of a sudden catching it from being in contact without it all over the place from not being trained healthcare workers.

I had no healthcare for a while and I know the last damn place I'd go is the ER unless it was likely I had because of the risks of contracting it there. No way I'm running there while I have mild symptoms to get tested, just self quarantine and if things start to turn for the worse head to the hospital. Honestly just like the flu.
RE: RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
j_rud : 3/16/2020 11:40 pm : link
In comment 14838205 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14838147 j_rud said:


Quote:


In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



For many people, especially the uninsured, they have no primary care physician. Showing up to an ER is the only way theyll get treatment bc they know they wont be turned away. Not justifying, rationalizing, or making it political, just explaining why it happens even absent a health crisis. I work in a hospital in a low income neighborhood, our ER is always busy and is notoriously misused. Once this thing spikes its going to be a warzone.



I wasn't making the point about the ER, even the doctors office in general. I wouldn't be going unless I thought it was likely I had it. His point was people flooding all healthcare systems with allergies, a minor symptoms that turn out not to COVID, and healthy people all of a sudden catching it from being in contact without it all over the place from not being trained healthcare workers.

I had no healthcare for a while and I know the last damn place I'd go is the ER unless it was likely I had because of the risks of contracting it there. No way I'm running there while I have mild symptoms to get tested, just self quarantine and if things start to turn for the worse head to the hospital. Honestly just like the flu.


Well youre talking about making decisions based on logic and reason as opposed to fear.

Historically, as a race, this is not our strong suit...
ill just say it  
Rory : 3/17/2020 12:12 am : link
how long before domestic travel is banned.

aka flights.
RE: RE: RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
Matt M. : 3/17/2020 12:36 am : link
In comment 14838210 j_rud said:
Quote:
In comment 14838205 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


In comment 14838147 j_rud said:


Quote:


In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



For many people, especially the uninsured, they have no primary care physician. Showing up to an ER is the only way theyll get treatment bc they know they wont be turned away. Not justifying, rationalizing, or making it political, just explaining why it happens even absent a health crisis. I work in a hospital in a low income neighborhood, our ER is always busy and is notoriously misused. Once this thing spikes its going to be a warzone.



I wasn't making the point about the ER, even the doctors office in general. I wouldn't be going unless I thought it was likely I had it. His point was people flooding all healthcare systems with allergies, a minor symptoms that turn out not to COVID, and healthy people all of a sudden catching it from being in contact without it all over the place from not being trained healthcare workers.

I had no healthcare for a while and I know the last damn place I'd go is the ER unless it was likely I had because of the risks of contracting it there. No way I'm running there while I have mild symptoms to get tested, just self quarantine and if things start to turn for the worse head to the hospital. Honestly just like the flu.



Well youre talking about making decisions based on logic and reason as opposed to fear.

Historically, as a race, this is not our strong suit...
Just to be clear, insurance or not, most primary care doctors are turning you away with mild symptoms.
RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 12:48 am : link
In comment 14838143 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.

No, I don't think that is what people think.
You get a high fever and slowly choke to death over several days.

That isn't much comfort for people.

And before you say that only old people get that kind of response, (fyi, my 82 year old mother is sitting next me), They say that 80% have mild to no symptoms... However, they also say that 50% develop pneumonia and need to be hospitalized for some period of time. That means that of that 3 out of 8 of those "mild" cases develop pneumonia and need some hospital treatment. Of the other 20% with severe symptoms, 3/4 (about 12 - 15% of all cases) of them need intensive care with oxygen or a ventilator. People who need hospitalization require it from 4 to 8 weeks. Lets use 5.

Lets game this out now that we know what it takes to deal with the patients...

Experts are estimating that 40% - 70% of the US population will contract this disease. Lets use 55%... With 380million inhabitants of the US, that means that almost 200million will get sick. But not all at once, I won't bore you with some of the math, but without draconian social distancing measures, the disease will take approximately 120 to rise, peak, and fall. The graph of this is called a normal distribution, I won't bore you with the detailed math, but it turns out 1 standard deviation is about 18 days. That means that the area under the curve 18 days on either side of the peak represents about 68% of the total. This lines up well with period of time people will be sick in the hospital (on average about 35 days). So lets make the mat easy and say that 2 out of every 3 people who need hospitalization will need it during the peak.
Now we can calculate the burden on the healthcare system.

200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.

200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.

To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.

Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.

And people say its just like the flu.
First of all big thanks to Eric for keeping these threads going.  
BigBlue in Keys : 3/17/2020 1:14 am : link
Second thanks to all who have kept the information flowing here. I'm a very busy person and don't normally follow the national news. I have no idea what is actually going on, have no interest in being right, but the writing has been on the wall (thanks to reading the tea leaves on BBI) that something is up and it'd be best to start to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best(similar to our hurricanes).

I've always liked to be over prepared for things whether it be a day trip, a tail gate party or a crisis. Having my girlfriend as a stage 4 cancer patient with no immune system coming off major surgeries our prospective has been different. As of now we have months of supplies of stuff we like and will use anyways. Vacuum sealed and stored properly. Thanks to info in these threads we reached out to her doctors and have 2-3 months extra of all of her meds, great advice. For me all of the preps are little insurance policies.

That all said and I'd love to talk preps, I really only responded after reading Koldegaards perspective from Europe. I'm FAR from a gun nut, mine stay put up and are really just for emergencies. Before the hurricane 2 years ago I hadn't touched my guns since I moved into this house 10 yrs ago. But looking back over history seeing how some countries just invade other countries wouldn't it make sense to have an armed population? I think that is built into American psyche. What would you do if you heard someone coming into your house one night? Not trying to be snarky or "'merica" just understanding that perspective.

It's not something I constantly worry about, in fact I rarely think about them, but I know they're there even though I would hate to actually use one. I very rarely use my chain saw, blow torch or turkey frier but I have them. They too are dangerous if used the wrong way. Anyways here is to wishing the best to you all, I hope you stay safe and things get back to normal soon. Let's come together as good Americans, support each other even if you don't agree, and let's get through this.
RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
Producer : 3/17/2020 1:35 am : link
In comment 14838143 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.


Hey Bradshaw44.. still think Ebola is more dangerous to you personally as you fought with me 5 weeks ago?

I have some mild respiratory symptoms and hoping it's nothing. No fever.
RE: RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
Producer : 3/17/2020 1:37 am : link
In comment 14838305 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14838143 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.


No, I don't think that is what people think.
You get a high fever and slowly choke to death over several days.

That isn't much comfort for people.

And before you say that only old people get that kind of response, (fyi, my 82 year old mother is sitting next me), They say that 80% have mild to no symptoms... However, they also say that 50% develop pneumonia and need to be hospitalized for some period of time. That means that of that 3 out of 8 of those "mild" cases develop pneumonia and need some hospital treatment. Of the other 20% with severe symptoms, 3/4 (about 12 - 15% of all cases) of them need intensive care with oxygen or a ventilator. People who need hospitalization require it from 4 to 8 weeks. Lets use 5.

Lets game this out now that we know what it takes to deal with the patients...

Experts are estimating that 40% - 70% of the US population will contract this disease. Lets use 55%... With 380million inhabitants of the US, that means that almost 200million will get sick. But not all at once, I won't bore you with some of the math, but without draconian social distancing measures, the disease will take approximately 120 to rise, peak, and fall. The graph of this is called a normal distribution, I won't bore you with the detailed math, but it turns out 1 standard deviation is about 18 days. That means that the area under the curve 18 days on either side of the peak represents about 68% of the total. This lines up well with period of time people will be sick in the hospital (on average about 35 days). So lets make the mat easy and say that 2 out of every 3 people who need hospitalization will need it during the peak.
Now we can calculate the burden on the healthcare system.

200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.

200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.

To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.

Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.

And people say its just like the flu.


I did all this math for everyone in late January. I was roundly laughed at. I'm at home with some mild respiratory problems. No fever. But some people just will not accept math unless people die. Very sad.
RE: WTF are people in Clearwater, FL doing?  
BigBlue in Keys : 3/17/2020 1:38 am : link
In comment 14838033 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Beaches were packed today.


Florida is open for business and until they are forced to stop the people will keep coming. So many of them I see are celebrating like they won "the virus is bullshit" Superbowl. There are plenty of locals who feel that way too though but that is changing. I try not to get upset about it or take sides because there is nothing I can do or say to change the masses. I can just prepare and cover our asses :)
RE: RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
BurberryManning : 3/17/2020 2:31 am : link
In comment 14838305 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14838143 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.


No, I don't think that is what people think.
You get a high fever and slowly choke to death over several days.

That isn't much comfort for people.

And before you say that only old people get that kind of response, (fyi, my 82 year old mother is sitting next me), They say that 80% have mild to no symptoms... However, they also say that 50% develop pneumonia and need to be hospitalized for some period of time. That means that of that 3 out of 8 of those "mild" cases develop pneumonia and need some hospital treatment. Of the other 20% with severe symptoms, 3/4 (about 12 - 15% of all cases) of them need intensive care with oxygen or a ventilator. People who need hospitalization require it from 4 to 8 weeks. Lets use 5.

Lets game this out now that we know what it takes to deal with the patients...

Experts are estimating that 40% - 70% of the US population will contract this disease. Lets use 55%... With 380million inhabitants of the US, that means that almost 200million will get sick. But not all at once, I won't bore you with some of the math, but without draconian social distancing measures, the disease will take approximately 120 to rise, peak, and fall. The graph of this is called a normal distribution, I won't bore you with the detailed math, but it turns out 1 standard deviation is about 18 days. That means that the area under the curve 18 days on either side of the peak represents about 68% of the total. This lines up well with period of time people will be sick in the hospital (on average about 35 days). So lets make the mat easy and say that 2 out of every 3 people who need hospitalization will need it during the peak.
Now we can calculate the burden on the healthcare system.

200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.

200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.

To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.

Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.

And people say its just like the flu.
Where are you sourcing your information regarding percentage of infected needing hospitalization, developing pneumonia, and average hospital stay? I may be mistaken but it seems like you may be conflating some figures. My understanding is that approximately 80% of those infected will be asymptomatic and/or mildly symptomatic with the ability to self-quarantine and need no hospitalization (rather than 80% leading to 50% needing hospitalization).

In the attached, updated as of yesterday, they estimate a hospitalization rate of 4.4% averaged across age groups, and assume 30% of those hospitalized will then require critical care (30% of 4.4%). Including those needing critical care, they estimate an average hospital stay of 10.4 days (8 days for non-critical, 16 for critical). Still a massive strain on the hospital system.

Without containment measures (which are now rapidly being put in place) they estimate 2.2mm Americans dead, with upside to that figure based upon health system overload. Even with realistically effective mitigation strategies enacted they project 1.2mm Americans dead. Certainly not the flu, but still not 100mm Americans requiring hospital stays, if these projections are to be believed.
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team - ( New Window )
DON'T TRUST CHINA'S NUMBERS! IT'S MUCH WORSE!!!  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 3:46 am : link
I keep saying this, I have a significant network of Chinese people, I know and have heard from people first hand including somebody in Wuhan that the stated deaths in China are "orders of magnitude" too low.

Let's look at Italy's numbers right now:
27,980 cases
2,158 dead
2,749 recovered
~ 23,000 active
over 11,000 hospitalized
~ 2,000 in intensive care


I have read elsewhere that in the hardest hit area, Italy is out of ICU beds, and that there are about another 1000 patients that should be in ICU but there is nothing available for them.

Those numbers are close to my estimates. And Italy's situation is worsening.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-cities-close-public-buildings-global-n1160106/ncrd1160691#liveBlogHeader
Also, for those that think only the elderly are at risk...  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 3:50 am : link
More than half of all the patients in intensive care in France are under age 60
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/487888-more-than-half-of-french-icu-patients-with

worse in the Netherlands, half are under age 50:

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/coronavirus-half-of-dutch-intensive-care-patients-are-under-50/


I misspoke a bit in my write up above  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 4:28 am : link
I wrote
Quote:
200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.

20% need significant hospital care, not intensive.
12 - 14% need intensive. 5 weeks seems to be the average hospital time in either case. But in the end, if you need significant hospital care, there will be no resources available to save you.
I don't  
rocco8112 : 3/17/2020 5:24 am : link
understand why saying the virus is in control is related to panic. The unprecedented actions being taken all over the world and the serious situation in Italy right now and elsewhere are major events driven by the rapid spread of this illness. Just a few months ago it was a brand new virus wreaking havoc in one country. Now, it is all over the Earth. The social distance measures, the world wide race for treatments, the impact on cruise, travel and of course the airline industry. Cancelling of all sports. School closings on a level and duration never seen before. These events are not being caused by the weather. They are reactive measures to deal with the Coronavirus. The virus is driving the events. This is before even getting into the possible long term impacts on globalization etc. That is not panic, those are facts.

I suppose it is possible that this is all a mass, global, overreaction, even then it was the fear of the virus that drove it, so the virus is still dictating world events.

The main risk it seems all along is the overwhelming of the medical system. The governor of NY has said daily now for almost a week that this wave of critical virus patients will overwhelm the the hospital. The mayor of NYC outlined a plan to commandeer empty, yet to open, or less filled medical facilities to add 5000 plus beds to the medical capacity of the city, and still more must be done. Is this being done for shits and giggles? They believe there will be a desperate need, and soon. Again, maybe they are wrong. But, what is driving this is this novel virus and it's deadly impact for many. My conclusion is still that the virus is in control. Human agency can wrest it back, and will, the cost, loss and overall impact is still to be determined.

For now, the virus is in the catbird seat.
Bergen County  
mattnyg05 : 3/17/2020 6:10 am : link
Is completely shutting down. Our business will be forced to close.

Never seen anything like this. Sandy knocked our entire front windows out completely and we boarded up and opened next day. This though is unprecedented.

Hopefully we kill this thing before it kills us financially or physically.
RE: Bergen County  
figgy2989 : 3/17/2020 6:49 am : link
In comment 14838412 mattnyg05 said:
Quote:
Is completely shutting down. Our business will be forced to close.

Never seen anything like this. Sandy knocked our entire front windows out completely and we boarded up and opened next day. This though is unprecedented.

Hopefully we kill this thing before it kills us financially or physically.


That really sucks matty, good luck to you.
Maybe a bit of encouraging news  
bc0312 : 3/17/2020 7:26 am : link
Australian Infection Disease doctors think that HIV Anti-viral drugs and an anti-malarial drug, both already available and well tolerated, can cure this and have successfully killed the virus using them in test tubes. This has been tried on some of the early infected people in Australia with success.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/australian-infectious-disease-expert-we-may-have-a-cure-for-coronavirus?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dwbrand - ( New Window )
RE: WTF are people in Clearwater, FL doing?  
beatrixkiddo : 3/17/2020 7:30 am : link
In comment 14838033 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Beaches were packed today.


Loading up on Vitamin D to strengthen their immune systems from viruses.
Why I'm not in the least worried about CV19 or the Flu or the like...  
SGMen : 3/17/2020 8:11 am : link
First, I have been diagnosed with "Gulf War Illness" which is essentially a by-product of the Army's enviornmental exposures due to vaccines, oil fires and the like. This means my immune system WAS compromised - key word being WAS.
Today I have a strong immune system and take precautions:
-I do not stress or FEAR (stop watching the news so much...)
-I wash my hands with organic soap and don't touch my face
-I clean my tongue and rinse first thing in morning and between meals
-I eat clean, organic, highly nutritious foods and drinks
-I drink clean water
-I eat organic fermented foods like kimchi and sauerkraut
-I take liposomal glutathione, vit c and vit d/k2

I can go on and on but will just add I am blessed to have an infrared sauna which heats to 160 degrees. I bought it because of my detoxification issues and (theoretically) 30 minutes of sweating in it should kill any and all viruses.

sleep, exercise, pray, meditate, journal, sunlight, nature walks, sex, love, caring for others - turn this negative into a positive.
RE: Why I'm not in the least worried about CV19 or the Flu or the like...  
joeinpa : 3/17/2020 8:43 am : link
In comment 14838531 SGMen said:
Quote:
First, I have been diagnosed with "Gulf War Illness" which is essentially a by-product of the Army's enviornmental exposures due to vaccines, oil fires and the like. This means my immune system WAS compromised - key word being WAS.
Today I have a strong immune system and take precautions:
-I do not stress or FEAR (stop watching the news so much...)
-I wash my hands with organic soap and don't touch my face
-I clean my tongue and rinse first thing in morning and between meals
-I eat clean, organic, highly nutritious foods and drinks
-I drink clean water
-I eat organic fermented foods like kimchi and sauerkraut
-I take liposomal glutathione, vit c and vit d/k2

I can go on and on but will just add I am blessed to have an infrared sauna which heats to 160 degrees. I bought it because of my detoxification issues and (theoretically) 30 minutes of sweating in it should kill any and all viruses.

sleep, exercise, pray, meditate, journal, sunlight, nature walks, sex, love, caring for others - turn this negative into a positive.


👍
Rogan had a virus expert on the other day and the sauna thing  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 8:52 am : link
is bullshit. Yeah it will kill viruses on your skin, but that is nothing a shower won't do.
US  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 8:58 am : link
fatality rate (as of this morning) under 2%. Most expect it is actually lower than 2% since testing has been limited and that's only based on confirmed cases AFAIK.

If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.

Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?

We're supposed to be getting a sample of COVID-19 soon  
Gary from The East End : Admin : 3/17/2020 8:58 am : link
Maybe some time this week. One of the main reasons that we're still up and running is to assist with the research.
RE: US  
Allen in CNJ : 3/17/2020 9:07 am : link
In comment 14838611 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
fatality rate (as of this morning) under 2%. Most expect it is actually lower than 2% since testing has been limited and that's only based on confirmed cases AFAIK.

If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.

Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?


100% accuracy on this
RE: RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
bradshaw44 : 3/17/2020 9:19 am : link
In comment 14838350 Producer said:
Quote:
In comment 14838143 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.



Hey Bradshaw44.. still think Ebola is more dangerous to you personally as you fought with me 5 weeks ago?

I have some mild respiratory symptoms and hoping it's nothing. No fever.


Yes I do.
RE: US  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 9:21 am : link
In comment 14838611 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
fatality rate (as of this morning) under 2%. Most expect it is actually lower than 2% since testing has been limited and that's only based on confirmed cases AFAIK.

If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.

Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?


it makes no sense, if the number is higher than what people are reporting, woukdnt there be more deaths? and if people are seriously sick they woukd be going to the hospital and in turn make the number hire of positive tests...

When world wide testing officially starts, the number will get hire sure but why eould the number of deaths skyrocket?
From what I've read/heard, more testing  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 9:26 am : link
would probably result in a lower morality rate. Then again, everyone has become an infectious disease analyst in the last couple of weeks so who knows?
RE: From what I've read/heard, more testing  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 9:29 am : link
In comment 14838661 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
would probably result in a lower morality rate. Then again, everyone has become an infectious disease analyst in the last couple of weeks so who knows?


yeah it is timr to unplug, my sister is a teacher and is going nuts at home, her fiance works in the city and she is freaking out...i told her unplug stop watching the tv
RE: From what I've read/heard, more testing  
LawrenceTaylor56 : 3/17/2020 9:29 am : link
In comment 14838661 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
would probably result in a lower morality rate. Then again, everyone has become an infectious disease analyst in the last couple of weeks so who knows?


Surprised you're not bunkered in with your 6 pack of Troegs.
Yeah, the amount of  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 9:32 am : link
people who first hand know an epidemiologist (not going to lie, not really sure what that even is) or an infectious disease expert is beyond what I'd ever expected.

I don't mind some anecdotes though, helps add additional data point, only who the F knows what is real vs made up.

I'll tell you what i really don't need. And that is to know the corporate COVID-19 policy for every single corporation, retail establishment or website I've ever given an email address to.
RE: Yeah, the amount of  
bradshaw44 : 3/17/2020 9:34 am : link
In comment 14838678 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
people who first hand know an epidemiologist (not going to lie, not really sure what that even is) or an infectious disease expert is beyond what I'd ever expected.

I don't mind some anecdotes though, helps add additional data point, only who the F knows what is real vs made up.

I'll tell you what i really don't need. And that is to know the corporate COVID-19 policy for every single corporation, retail establishment or website I've ever given an email address to.


What, you didn't like the corporate notices from Draft Kings, Fan Duel, Angie's list and Bed Bath and Beyond???
RE: RE: From what I've read/heard, more testing  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 9:35 am : link
In comment 14838668 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14838661 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


would probably result in a lower morality rate. Then again, everyone has become an infectious disease analyst in the last couple of weeks so who knows?



yeah it is timr to unplug, my sister is a teacher and is going nuts at home, her fiance works in the city and she is freaking out...i told her unplug stop watching the tv


Yeah, I've stopped watching MSNBC and CNN. Last night I watched NBA TV & they showed Game 5 of the '14 Finals. It was a nice distraction, that & NFL FA.
RE: RE: RE: From what I've read/heard, more testing  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 9:37 am : link
In comment 14838691 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
In comment 14838668 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


In comment 14838661 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


would probably result in a lower morality rate. Then again, everyone has become an infectious disease analyst in the last couple of weeks so who knows?



yeah it is timr to unplug, my sister is a teacher and is going nuts at home, her fiance works in the city and she is freaking out...i told her unplug stop watching the tv



Yeah, I've stopped watching MSNBC and CNN. Last night I watched NBA TV & they showed Game 5 of the '14 Finals. It was a nice distraction, that & NFL FA.


yeah nfl was a great distraction
My Trader Joe’s is only allowing 7 customers inside at a time and  
UConn4523 : 3/17/2020 9:38 am : link
is handing out sanitizing wipes before entering.
And I’ve got more info from my DENTIST friend  
UConn4523 : 3/17/2020 9:39 am : link
but lord knows if I post it riots will ensue
RE: RE: US  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 9:43 am : link
In comment 14838655 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14838611 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


fatality rate (as of this morning) under 2%. Most expect it is actually lower than 2% since testing has been limited and that's only based on confirmed cases AFAIK.

If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.

Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?




it makes no sense, if the number is higher than what people are reporting, woukdnt there be more deaths? and if people are seriously sick they woukd be going to the hospital and in turn make the number hire of positive tests...

When world wide testing officially starts, the number will get hire sure but why eould the number of deaths skyrocket?


That is why to me looking at other numbers outside of SK's is a fools errand. They are they only country in place that had testing system in place that was likely to test most cases. Even there's are likely to be slightly underestimated because they have stipulation in place who can get tested, although that number is probably marginal. And the numbers we have from there says it has a mortality rate of 1 percent. Same number that Fauci put out a week ago.

Still fucking terrible, but there are people throwing out numbers that have so little context.
RE: And I’ve got more info from my DENTIST friend  
BigBlueShock : 3/17/2020 9:43 am : link
In comment 14838702 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
but lord knows if I post it riots will ensue

Come on man, you can’t tease us like that. Post it!
RE: And I’ve got more info from my DENTIST friend  
Motley Two : 3/17/2020 9:45 am : link
In comment 14838702 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
but lord knows if I post it riots will ensue



RE: Rogan had a virus expert on the other day and the sauna thing  
SGMen : 3/17/2020 9:54 am : link
In comment 14838600 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
is bullshit. Yeah it will kill viruses on your skin, but that is nothing a shower won't do.
An infrared sauna's dry heat, say 155 degrees, helps (theoretically) kill the virus on your skin and in your lungs and mouth as well. I presume you are speaking of Joe Rogan?

I state "theoretically" because to my knowledge there are no known viable medical studies, just logic being employed.
RE: RE: And I’ve got more info from my DENTIST friend  
SGMen : 3/17/2020 9:58 am : link
In comment 14838716 Motley Two said:
Quote:
In comment 14838702 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


but lord knows if I post it riots will ensue




I believe strongly in cleaning your mouth & tongue FIRST THING in the morning and after contact with others. Bacteria and the like fester in your mouth so removing them in the morning and drinking very warm water first thing could potentially be a very good idea for helping with all health issues and immunity.
RE: RE: Rogan had a virus expert on the other day and the sauna thing  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 10:04 am : link
In comment 14838735 SGMen said:
Quote:
In comment 14838600 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


is bullshit. Yeah it will kill viruses on your skin, but that is nothing a shower won't do.

An infrared sauna's dry heat, say 155 degrees, helps (theoretically) kill the virus on your skin and in your lungs and mouth as well. I presume you are speaking of Joe Rogan?

I state "theoretically" because to my knowledge there are no known viable medical studies, just logic being employed.


It actually blew my mind that so many people believe the air going into your lungs is 155 degrees. That would instantly kill you. The virus expert explained the ins and outs of why the air cools down before it gets close to your lungs.
At least we're not the UK  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 10:05 am : link
Quote:
Bill Neely
@BillNeelyNBC
·
16h
BREAKING: The entire UK strategy for fighting #coronavirus was based on false analysis. Scientists advising the Gov’t now say the UK only realised "in the last few days" that its Coronavirus strategy would "likely result In hundreds of thousands of deaths"
RE: US  
MetsAreBack : 3/17/2020 10:14 am : link
In comment 14838611 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
fatality rate (as of this morning) under 2%. Most expect it is actually lower than 2% since testing has been limited and that's only based on confirmed cases AFAIK.

If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.

Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?



shhh PJ... .McL wants us to believe the mortality rate is 7%+. 2x what the WHO is saying and 7x what Dr Fauci has estimated. I imagine his poor 82 year old mother sitting next to him these days wants to off her poor self by now.

Also keeps pointing to France and Netherlands ... first France said under 65, not 60... second, only 10% of their deaths to date have been ages under 60 or 65.

The disease is no joke - 99% of EVERYONE HERE ALREADY KNOWS THIS.
RE: RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
Thegratefulhead : 3/17/2020 10:21 am : link
In comment 14838305 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14838143 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.


No, I don't think that is what people think.
You get a high fever and slowly choke to death over several days.

That isn't much comfort for people.

And before you say that only old people get that kind of response, (fyi, my 82 year old mother is sitting next me), They say that 80% have mild to no symptoms... However, they also say that 50% develop pneumonia and need to be hospitalized for some period of time. That means that of that 3 out of 8 of those "mild" cases develop pneumonia and need some hospital treatment. Of the other 20% with severe symptoms, 3/4 (about 12 - 15% of all cases) of them need intensive care with oxygen or a ventilator. People who need hospitalization require it from 4 to 8 weeks. Lets use 5.

Lets game this out now that we know what it takes to deal with the patients...

Experts are estimating that 40% - 70% of the US population will contract this disease. Lets use 55%... With 380million inhabitants of the US, that means that almost 200million will get sick. But not all at once, I won't bore you with some of the math, but without draconian social distancing measures, the disease will take approximately 120 to rise, peak, and fall. The graph of this is called a normal distribution, I won't bore you with the detailed math, but it turns out 1 standard deviation is about 18 days. That means that the area under the curve 18 days on either side of the peak represents about 68% of the total. This lines up well with period of time people will be sick in the hospital (on average about 35 days). So lets make the mat easy and say that 2 out of every 3 people who need hospitalization will need it during the peak.
Now we can calculate the burden on the healthcare system.

200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.

200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.

To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.

Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.

And people say its just like the flu.
Normally, I can walk around and live on the Earth and ignore the stupid. I trained myself, I have been doing it since I was 4 years old. This last week, I have zero tolerance for stupid. The contempt I have for the people that ignore this, mocking me and saying this was less dangerous than the flu when we had case studies in other countries to tell us EXACTLY what this was...I really try not to hate, but fuck. Stupid, will end up being the end of us all. We are lucky this was not more deadly or we would all be dead. We MUST take things more seriously next time or we might not have future. This was our wake up call. A pandemic is the most likely end to civilization as we know it. We need to be a lot more prepared. A for profit health system, will NEVER build enough capacity to care for a pandemic. It is not profitable. We should be building a giant hospital in NY right NOW! Yester fucking day.
RE: RE: RE: And I’ve got more info from my DENTIST friend  
SomeFan : 3/17/2020 10:23 am : link
In comment 14838748 SGMen said:
Quote:
In comment 14838716 Motley Two said:


Quote:


In comment 14838702 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


but lord knows if I post it riots will ensue






I believe strongly in cleaning your mouth & tongue FIRST THING in the morning and after contact with others. Bacteria and the like fester in your mouth so removing them in the morning and drinking very warm water first thing could potentially be a very good idea for helping with all health issues and immunity.


I wonder if nasal irrigation with one of those Neti pots could help as I read that the coronavirus first gets in your nasal passages. Even if it doesn't completely prevent the disease, maybe it can lessen the effects of it.
I think we need to be careful about labeling  
Hot Rod in St Cloud : 3/17/2020 10:25 am : link
Things are not always as black and white as we make them out to be. It is so easy to label the people who don't agree with us as "Jerks" or "what's wrong with those people."

I think we can all agree that there is nothing inherently wrong with implementing safety measures designed to limit the spread of any virus. let alone the corona virus in order to reduce the number of deaths and to reduce the burden on the ability of the health care system to deal effectively with any epidemic.

On the other hand, I don't think you should downplay the impact such measures have on the public or overlook that these measures being taken are unprecedented. We have had epidemics before in this country such as measles, polio, cholera, tuberculosis, small pox, etc. But, we have never shut down the economy. For anyone who has lost their jobs or homes, I think they can understand just how traumatic that also is and sometimes, that ends in suicide.

The history of the birth of our country was founded upon the right to the pursuit of happiness. At some point in our history, the American people reached a breaking-point and made a choice to go to war. "Give me liberty or give me death!" I think this epidemic has a similar ring to it!

Obviously, not everyone wanted to go to war. Those who didn't think it was wise to do so were labeled as "sympathizers" or "traitors". There is no doubt our country was in a moral dilemma as to what was the right course of action to take. For those who felt it was best to go to war, the way to silence those of a different opinion was to label them.

To me there is no easy black and white. Can we all not understand that it is a good thing to implement sensible restrictions for the good of the people? Vice-versa, why can we not understand that it is also a bad thing to not continue our lives in the manner to which we are accustomed?

Those two sides of this equation are like being on a teeter-totter. Right now the heavier weight lies with the protection of our physical beings. But, if these measures last too long, I can also see that the other side of the teeter-totter, the side that deals with our emotional health will start to gain weight and credence.
RE: RE: US  
TyreeHelmet : 3/17/2020 10:28 am : link
The disease is no joke - 99% of EVERYONE HERE ALREADY KNOWS THIS. [/quote]

Unfortunately I don't think thats the case. Look at the morons filling the beaches in Florida or packing the bars this past weekend.

People are still downplaying this which is truly unbelievable at this point.
I was referring to BBI  
MetsAreBack : 3/17/2020 10:33 am : link
those of us discussing this every day now for months, and reading each others posts.

On Netherlands - another scare tactic linked above - almost all of their deaths to date are ages 70%+, and they only have 50 people total in their country in ICU currently. So ~25 people total under 50 yrs old in ICU right now. Thats quite obviously just not nearly enough of a sample size yet.

Again, the disease is very serious... but 7% of people are going to die? Honestly, politely step away from the ledge and fuck off.
RE: RE: RE: US  
Heisenberg : 3/17/2020 10:37 am : link
In comment 14838711 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14838655 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


In comment 14838611 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


fatality rate (as of this morning) under 2%. Most expect it is actually lower than 2% since testing has been limited and that's only based on confirmed cases AFAIK.

If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.

Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?




it makes no sense, if the number is higher than what people are reporting, woukdnt there be more deaths? and if people are seriously sick they woukd be going to the hospital and in turn make the number hire of positive tests...

When world wide testing officially starts, the number will get hire sure but why eould the number of deaths skyrocket?



That is why to me looking at other numbers outside of SK's is a fools errand. They are they only country in place that had testing system in place that was likely to test most cases. Even there's are likely to be slightly underestimated because they have stipulation in place who can get tested, although that number is probably marginal. And the numbers we have from there says it has a mortality rate of 1 percent. Same number that Fauci put out a week ago.

Still fucking terrible, but there are people throwing out numbers that have so little context.


This would assume that the detection/isolation/treatment strategies of the SK folks, along with them remaining under their capacity does not affect the mortality rate. Not to mention any demographic differences that might be in play. Each data point has value and context and it's wishful thinking to say that their data point is somehow more valuable than any other.
MAB  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 10:37 am : link
AcidTest, who I respect as a poster, said this is going to kill like 55-65 million people. Like, whoa. Let's step away from the ledge for a minute shall we?
RE: MAB  
MetsAreBack : 3/17/2020 10:44 am : link
In comment 14838853 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
AcidTest, who I respect as a poster, said this is going to kill like 55-65 million people. Like, whoa. Let's step away from the ledge for a minute shall we?


I respect him too... its a tough, uncertain, unsettling time for everyone, and people are bound to get emotional. The 0.7% mortality rate on a 8 billion population he throws out there assumes social distancing doesnt work at all and no one globally can come up with any type of vaccine that even if imperfect keeps people alive.

I'll be more optimistic. But .McLs 7% mortality rate based on circumstantial bullshit helps no one.
RE: RE: RE: US  
SomeFan : 3/17/2020 10:45 am : link
In comment 14838829 TyreeHelmet said:
Quote:
The disease is no joke - 99% of EVERYONE HERE ALREADY KNOWS THIS.


Unfortunately I don't think thats the case. Look at the morons filling the beaches in Florida or packing the bars this past weekend.

People are still downplaying this which is truly unbelievable at this point. [/quote]

There are many who refuse to wear seat belts and still smoke and chew tobacco so there will be those who blow off taking any precautions for this virus. That is the reality. However, there are many more who did change their behavior regarding seat belts and smoking. Ergo, there will be many more who will take precautions and lower the curve. I am also optimistic that the weather change will impact this virus like it does most viruses, i.e., for the benefit of people in the Northern hemisphere.

It was reported this morning that Wuhan is coming back online (so to speak) regarding manufacturing so that seems like a big positive to me.
I was texting with buddy last night & we both  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 10:54 am : link
think that everyone is going to go apesh*t, in a positive way, when sports comes back that first day. It's going to be like a national holiday.
RE: RE: RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
bw in dc : 3/17/2020 10:55 am : link
In comment 14838806 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:

Normally, I can walk around and live on the Earth and ignore the stupid. I trained myself, I have been doing it since I was 4 years old. This last week, I have zero tolerance for stupid. The contempt I have for the people that ignore this, mocking me and saying this was less dangerous than the flu when we had case studies in other countries to tell us EXACTLY what this was...I really try not to hate, but fuck. Stupid, will end up being the end of us all. We are lucky this was not more deadly or we would all be dead. We MUST take things more seriously next time or we might not have future. This was our wake up call. A pandemic is the most likely end to civilization as we know it. We need to be a lot more prepared. A for profit health system, will NEVER build enough capacity to care for a pandemic. It is not profitable. We should be building a giant hospital in NY right NOW! Yester fucking day.


We'll get through this but it's going to be very sticky. And like you suggest, let's hope it leads to a complete re-evaluation with how we monitor, prepare, and respond going forward.

I follow worldwide disease closely. Bird Flu is the one to worry about. Asia continues to have very substandard oversight in their meat markets. And Bird Flu continues to grow in the chicken and duck populations over there. God forbid that morphs into a more contractible disease...the death rate will be extraordinary.

I'm all for ramping up funding for more R&D to get vaccines to head of these human killers...
RE: I was referring to BBI  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 11:02 am : link
In comment 14838839 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
those of us discussing this every day now for months, and reading each others posts.

On Netherlands - another scare tactic linked above - almost all of their deaths to date are ages 70%+, and they only have 50 people total in their country in ICU currently. So ~25 people total under 50 yrs old in ICU right now. Thats quite obviously just not nearly enough of a sample size yet.

Again, the disease is very serious... but 7% of people are going to die? Honestly, politely step away from the ledge and fuck off.


This is what I don't get, the guy is a supposed analytics expert, but can't even spot the major problems with such a small sample size. I mean if it the first wave hit a middle aged population with lots of health factors, that easily explains the data.
RE: I was texting with buddy last night & we both  
Darth Paul : 3/17/2020 11:03 am : link
In comment 14838900 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
think that everyone is going to go apesh*t, in a positive way, when sports comes back that first day. It's going to be like a national holiday.


I think about all the high school sports seasons lost. A senior trying to get drafted or go to a baseball school, season gone. Not that my son is a superstar or playing pro, but he made varsity as a freshman, cool and exciting, gone. Not as awesome being a sophomore playing varsity next year.
Heisenberg, the only thing that will affect the death rate  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 11:07 am : link
significantly is if those that need treatment don't get it. I mean that may happen in NY. Or like you said population factors, are population is probably higher at risk because of all the unhealthy people, but quickly looking at diabetes numbers we are only 2 percent higher than South Korea. They are among the most unhealthy Asian populations.
Spain  
Sammo85 : 3/17/2020 11:09 am : link
looks like it's in an "Italy-esque" situation at moment.

Even Germany looks like it's beginning to strain a bit under the sudden onslaught despite it's immense investment in healthcare resources.

Was surprised to see numbers for smaller countries like Malaysia, Portugal go up quite high (looked as if they had insulated themselves a bit, but suppose they are also testing more, which is a good thing.
.  
Danny Kanell : 3/17/2020 11:10 am : link
I'm not sure if this is allowed at this point but if any New Yorkers missed Cuomo's press conference this morning, it's worth going back and watching it. Very well put together and extremely well done and informative. And this is coming from someone who leans the other way.
RE: I was texting with buddy last night & we both  
Mr. Bungle : 3/17/2020 11:20 am : link
In comment 14838900 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
think that everyone is going to go apesh*t, in a positive way, when sports comes back that first day. It's going to be like a national holiday.

I'm not sure what to expect when it comes to that eventual "first day back" to everything, and not just sports.

Will most people be like kids let out of school for summer vacation? Or will many people still be apprehensive about going out into crowds?

I'm inclined right now to think that we will return to social normalcy in gradual stages, instead of a "bust open the gates" approach.

Maybe the first sporting events will be held without attendance? Things like that.

I have no idea.
RE: .  
MetsAreBack : 3/17/2020 11:23 am : link
In comment 14838957 Danny Kanell said:
Quote:
I'm not sure if this is allowed at this point but if any New Yorkers missed Cuomo's press conference this morning, it's worth going back and watching it. Very well put together and extremely well done and informative. And this is coming from someone who leans the other way.


Missed it, but he's been a good leader so far throughout this. The 19% hospitalization rate is obviously a concerning headline but very few people can get tested so the affirmed cases are heavily weighted to the higher risk community and those showing significant symptoms. We still lack so much damn granular data to make sense of any of this.
RE: RE: .  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 11:30 am : link
In comment 14838982 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14838957 Danny Kanell said:


Quote:


I'm not sure if this is allowed at this point but if any New Yorkers missed Cuomo's press conference this morning, it's worth going back and watching it. Very well put together and extremely well done and informative. And this is coming from someone who leans the other way.



Missed it, but he's been a good leader so far throughout this. The 19% hospitalization rate is obviously a concerning headline but very few people can get tested so the affirmed cases are heavily weighted to the higher risk community and those showing significant symptoms. We still lack so much damn granular data to make sense of any of this.


He's been on his brothers show most the week. I've been presently surprised by him, it seems like he's often portrayed as a buffoon. May be a buffoon I don't know, but he is exhibiting tremendous leadership abilities.
I'm not the biggest Cuomo fan  
Sammo85 : 3/17/2020 11:38 am : link
But his actions and attempt to impose good decisions and marshal resources in alignment with what he's clearly seeing as troubling is a positive. He's trying to be proactive while others are being reactive and or disjointed.

He's clearly also "leading" Lamont in CT and Murphy in NJ rightly or wrongly. He's kind of taken on a de facto Metro Area governor role or feel for the NY/NJ/CT area.
RE: I'm not the biggest Cuomo fan  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/17/2020 11:40 am : link
In comment 14839012 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
But his actions and attempt to impose good decisions and marshal resources in alignment with what he's clearly seeing as troubling is a positive. He's trying to be proactive while others are being reactive and or disjointed.

He's clearly also "leading" Lamont in CT and Murphy in NJ rightly or wrongly. He's kind of taken on a de facto Metro Area governor role or feel for the NY/NJ/CT area.


He just stated that the peak in NY will not be for another 45 days according to the data.
RE: I was texting with buddy last night & we both  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 11:41 am : link
In comment 14838900 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
think that everyone is going to go apesh*t, in a positive way, when sports comes back that first day. It's going to be like a national holiday.


I feel like what we know about the timeline, that it is going to reach the worst of it in about 2 months, it will level out for a week weeks, and then decline, puts the NFL as the first major sporting event without restrictions. Opening week in the NFL is going to be bonanzas, even though the football that gets played will probably be garbage. Going to miss a lot of offseason time.
RE: I'm not the biggest Cuomo fan  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 11:42 am : link
In comment 14839012 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
But his actions and attempt to impose good decisions and marshal resources in alignment with what he's clearly seeing as troubling is a positive. He's trying to be proactive while others are being reactive and or disjointed.

He's clearly also "leading" Lamont in CT and Murphy in NJ rightly or wrongly. He's kind of taken on a de facto Metro Area governor role or feel for the NY/NJ/CT area.


It's been years since I've lived in NJ and haven't really followed anything their politically, but Murphy does not inspire the same confidence as Cuomo, quite the opposite in fact imo.
RE: RE: I was referring to BBI  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/17/2020 11:43 am : link
In comment 14838925 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14838839 MetsAreBack said:


Quote:


those of us discussing this every day now for months, and reading each others posts.

On Netherlands - another scare tactic linked above - almost all of their deaths to date are ages 70%+, and they only have 50 people total in their country in ICU currently. So ~25 people total under 50 yrs old in ICU right now. Thats quite obviously just not nearly enough of a sample size yet.

Again, the disease is very serious... but 7% of people are going to die? Honestly, politely step away from the ledge and fuck off.



This is what I don't get, the guy is a supposed analytics expert, but can't even spot the major problems with such a small sample size. I mean if it the first wave hit a middle aged population with lots of health factors, that easily explains the data.


The first mistake is thinking he's an analytics expert. He's a self-professed analytics expert, which is akin to American Idol auditionees saying they are vocal experts.

He's had so many times where his use of analytics is flat out incorrect (including using the term analytics to describe something other), that I'm surprised anyone has taken him seriously here.

It's on full display on the Coronavirus threads. The guy saw some numbers and actually said he made some "analytic projections", and then he spews out bullshit.

Keep that in mind the next time he talks about what the Giants are doing for analytics. He doesn't have a fucking clue.
Cuomo might be a lot of things-  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 11:48 am : link
not exactly Mr. Gregarious-but he's pretty sharp.
Also the walls and walls of text  
figgy2989 : 3/17/2020 11:48 am : link
That he spews out. Only half of the time will he actually link "data" to support his posts. Makes you think what information he is fabricating to support his argument and what is actually true.

FMiC, you were right on the money the other day when you said he plays fast and loose with his arguments.
luke warm on Cuomo - but as Winston said -  
GiantsUA : 3/17/2020 12:04 pm : link
I believe this is his "Finest Hour"
Glad to see Tom Hanks and Rita released from hospital  
Torrag : 3/17/2020 12:51 pm : link
Hopefully a precursor for a lot more good news on the virus front. Also some good reports on drugs effective vs the virus.
Just read a NYT article on when we should expect to be  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 12:53 pm : link
back to somewhat normal. They went by China, which is now beginning to act like they did pre virus. By that estimate, we're probably looking @ mid May.
I wish this Pence led Virus Task Force...  
bw in dc : 3/17/2020 12:54 pm : link
would report stats more. Just basic intel - # of reported cases and the # of deaths. And show how the death rate is gradually dipping over time. Do it by age buckets, too.

I think this would give the American people more faith that the virus isn't this rabid killer and ease some of the anxiety...
RE: Why I'm not in the least worried about CV19 or the Flu or the like...  
djm : 3/17/2020 12:55 pm : link
In comment 14838531 SGMen said:
Quote:
First, I have been diagnosed with "Gulf War Illness" which is essentially a by-product of the Army's enviornmental exposures due to vaccines, oil fires and the like. This means my immune system WAS compromised - key word being WAS.
Today I have a strong immune system and take precautions:
-I do not stress or FEAR (stop watching the news so much...)
-I wash my hands with organic soap and don't touch my face
-I clean my tongue and rinse first thing in morning and between meals
-I eat clean, organic, highly nutritious foods and drinks
-I drink clean water
-I eat organic fermented foods like kimchi and sauerkraut
-I take liposomal glutathione, vit c and vit d/k2

I can go on and on but will just add I am blessed to have an infrared sauna which heats to 160 degrees. I bought it because of my detoxification issues and (theoretically) 30 minutes of sweating in it should kill any and all viruses.

sleep, exercise, pray, meditate, journal, sunlight, nature walks, sex, love, caring for others - turn this negative into a positive.


lol
RE: I wish this Pence led Virus Task Force...  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 1:15 pm : link
In comment 14839164 bw in dc said:
Quote:
would report stats more. Just basic intel - # of reported cases and the # of deaths. And show how the death rate is gradually dipping over time. Do it by age buckets, too.

I think this would give the American people more faith that the virus isn't this rabid killer and ease some of the anxiety...


Just my personal perspective here, but I think that two things.

1. If they post stuff about how the fatality rate is lower than anticipated maybe then people would take it less seriously and prematurely end certain quarantine or lock down procedures that probably are influencing or keeping the fatality rate where it is.

2. I read a lot of people complaining about how late we are in our response. I do think we are late with some preparation like masks, ventilators, etc. but I think if authorities tried to enact certain measures too soon, before things blew up elsewhere they'd get very low compliance. So while I'm not saying so far our government actions were perfect, I feel at least some of the public criticisms are disingenuous and political.

I hope this works out to be less fatal than some of the models, but I think we're far from out of the woods. and I support the measures federal, state, and local governments have been enacting.

From what I see (anecdotally) across those three groups (federal, state and local) and across party lines, the response has been appropriate.
Good post pjcas  
Danny Kanell : 3/17/2020 1:22 pm : link
And I agree on all points.
pj - I mostly agree but it took far too long to get a single unified  
Eric on Li : 3/17/2020 1:22 pm : link
message to everyone regarding the seriousness of the situation, which really only happened in the last several days. And specifically I don't know how to label the mixed messages as recently as days ago as anything other than enormously unhelpful.

I grade our response as a community a far higher grade on taking this seriously and quickly adhering to grasp a new reality than I do on those who had access to experts over the last 2-3 months and could have been doing a better job educating the public on the seriousness of the situation.

We were very fortunate that Italy's poor response acted as an early warning system.
RE: RE: RE: RE: It blows my mind people would ever go to the ER with very minor sympto  
Producer : 3/17/2020 1:23 pm : link
In comment 14838648 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
In comment 14838350 Producer said:


Quote:


In comment 14838143 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.



The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.



Hey Bradshaw44.. still think Ebola is more dangerous to you personally as you fought with me 5 weeks ago?

I have some mild respiratory symptoms and hoping it's nothing. No fever.



Yes I do.


Really? Well let me help you with this again. Unless you are a healthcare worker in central Africa during an Ebola outbreak or caring for a family member in central Africa during an outbreak you have a 0.0001% chance of ever encountering Ebola.

This virus you have a 70% chance of contracting (Harvard) and a 15% chance of requiring icu care. And before you tell me how young you are, in France 50% of icu patients are below 65. This virus is a far bigger threat to you personally than Ebola can ever be -- smh.
RE: pj - I mostly agree but it took far too long to get a single unified  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 1:29 pm : link
In comment 14839226 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
message to everyone regarding the seriousness of the situation, which really only happened in the last several days. And specifically I don't know how to label the mixed messages as recently as days ago as anything other than enormously unhelpful.

I grade our response as a community a far higher grade on taking this seriously and quickly adhering to grasp a new reality than I do on those who had access to experts over the last 2-3 months and could have been doing a better job educating the public on the seriousness of the situation.

We were very fortunate that Italy's poor response acted as an early warning system.


I don't have a good answer, other than look around the globe. You mentioned Italy. The UK's response seems worse even if they don't wind up with high fatality rates. Europe has become the epicenter. I trust nothing from China, so hard to know reality there, but everywhere you look I think only South Korea stands out as a model.

And with increased testing, maybe US fatality rate actually drops closer to South Korea instead of elevates to Italy.

Either, right now feels like the right thing even if we had some bumps getting here.

I mean, to this average person (me),I think when a pandemic hits it's because it's new. testing, understanding the virus behavior, vaccine and prevention, etc. I think take a while to figure out (at least I feel like it's understandable if it does take a while) so I don't have an expectation that anyone has all the answers early.

I didn't expect immediate answers with H1N1 (or SARS, etc.) nor do I with COVID-19.

Just have to hope the authorities have the right people advising and making decisions.
RE: pj - I mostly agree but it took far too long to get a single unified  
Eric on Li : 3/17/2020 1:29 pm : link
In comment 14839226 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
message to everyone regarding the seriousness of the situation, which really only happened in the last several days. And specifically I don't know how to label the mixed messages as recently as days ago as anything other than enormously unhelpful.

I grade our response as a community a far higher grade on taking this seriously and quickly adhering to grasp a new reality than I do on those who had access to experts over the last 2-3 months and could have been doing a better job educating the public on the seriousness of the situation.

We were very fortunate that Italy's poor response acted as an early warning system.


and btw, I say this as someone who has a family member in their 60's, with underlying conditions, who 1 week ago was planning to continue flying for work into hotspot cities, arguing that it was similar to the seasonal flu.

that same family member fortunately cancelled those trips, and also still ended up needing to get tested yesterday (with difficulties and results not expected for a few days).
PJ I mostly agree but I just think situations like my follow-up post  
Eric on Li : 3/17/2020 1:33 pm : link
were incredibly avoidable. Yes our response hasn't been the worst, but it also hasn't been close to the best. I think we are taking close to the best actions we can take now and hopefully it isn't too little too late.
Seems like a full shutdown to nyc is coming  
bubba0825 : 3/17/2020 2:43 pm : link
.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Seems like a full shutdown to nyc is coming  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 2:49 pm : link
In comment 14839339 bubba0825 said:
Quote:
. Link - ( New Window )


the complete opposite of what cuomo said
RE: RE: I wish this Pence led Virus Task Force...  
bw in dc : 3/17/2020 3:17 pm : link
In comment 14839210 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14839164 bw in dc said:


Quote:


would report stats more. Just basic intel - # of reported cases and the # of deaths. And show how the death rate is gradually dipping over time. Do it by age buckets, too.

I think this would give the American people more faith that the virus isn't this rabid killer and ease some of the anxiety...



Just my personal perspective here, but I think that two things.

1. If they post stuff about how the fatality rate is lower than anticipated maybe then people would take it less seriously and prematurely end certain quarantine or lock down procedures that probably are influencing or keeping the fatality rate where it is.

2. I read a lot of people complaining about how late we are in our response. I do think we are late with some preparation like masks, ventilators, etc. but I think if authorities tried to enact certain measures too soon, before things blew up elsewhere they'd get very low compliance. So while I'm not saying so far our government actions were perfect, I feel at least some of the public criticisms are disingenuous and political.

I hope this works out to be less fatal than some of the models, but I think we're far from out of the woods. and I support the measures federal, state, and local governments have been enacting.

From what I see (anecdotally) across those three groups (federal, state and local) and across party lines, the response has been appropriate.


I hear you on #1. But they could caveat the stats in a way where you downplay the results as early in the trend line and we still don't know where this virus is going to take us in the longrun.

On #2, I think this situation would be virtually impossible for ANY administration to handle. However, my opinion is they were very slow out of the gate and mismanaged the widespread threat from China. And that made it easier for the virus to enter and start to run here. We need to be better than that going forward.

Finally, and this is coming from a fairly staunch conservative, the message has been highly disjointed and really just piss-poor. There were some very faulty assumptions made that this was basically going to be like a storm front - come through, dump a lot of rain, and then head out to sea...
It does appear that the cases are slowing down  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 3:20 pm : link
in Italy per NY Daily News.
RE: RE: Rogan had a virus expert on the other day and the sauna thing  
regulator : 3/17/2020 3:22 pm : link
In comment 14838735 SGMen said:
Quote:
In comment 14838600 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


is bullshit. Yeah it will kill viruses on your skin, but that is nothing a shower won't do.

An infrared sauna's dry heat, say 155 degrees, helps (theoretically) kill the virus on your skin and in your lungs and mouth as well. I presume you are speaking of Joe Rogan?

I state "theoretically" because to my knowledge there are no known viable medical studies, just logic being employed.


Must be nice living in fantasy land!
A shelter in  
rocco8112 : 3/17/2020 3:27 pm : link
of NYC.

Word on the street is it is coming. I don't even know what that means exactly.
RE: A shelter in  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 3:29 pm : link
In comment 14839427 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
of NYC.

Word on the street is it is coming. I don't even know what that means exactly.


What does it mean? Go raid the liquor stores ASAP & hoard as much as you can dammit.
Comprehensive look at what  
Canton : 3/17/2020 3:34 pm : link
Shelter in Place ..

Means.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: It does appear that the cases are slowing down  
Sammo85 : 3/17/2020 3:37 pm : link
In comment 14839412 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
in Italy per NY Daily News.


They've reported one of the highest # of cases and deaths proportionately today.

The exponential increases are slowing down which is good and shows that hard suppression and quarantine works, but they're just entering the incline of their curve still to the top (hopefully over this coming week or two).

The key is sustaining the hard suppression over several weeks (China showed how important this was, for if you leak or let up, it'll be a flood back to the mean if you will).

My heart breaks for them. Love Italy and the people are awesome and hysterical.

Spain looks like it's in for a rough two weeks ahead.


Italy - Worldometers Coronavirus Tracker - ( New Window )
Well  
Carson53 : 3/17/2020 3:38 pm : link
I was suppose to have knee replacement surgery in a week
on my left knee, that was canceled today. I am not that surprised, told my orthopedic's office,
I can wait six months. If it's an elective surgery, it will be canceled.
Eric and Bw  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 3:47 pm : link
nice posts and not much to argue with only my approach is slightly different.

What's done is done. People were going to second guess the response no matter which administration (in something like this).

I'm really just looking forward and trying to maintain a positive outlook.

I don't consider myself conservative (well conservatives don't consider me a conservative - mostly because of most of my social views - and I don't care for any labels anyway, every issue I have different feelings about and like a lot of Genx my views from issue to issue conflict with mainstream ideologies), but it's irrelevant IMO I feel like no matter which party the president belonged to in a situation like this I'd hold my criticism and look for unity. It's the only way out of this IMO.

So instead of saying definitively the sky is falling we f'ed up our response or we were too late or whatever, I'm trying to live in the present and focus on the future.
4 nets test positive  
bubba0825 : 3/17/2020 4:08 pm : link
For the virus. It’s way more widespread than we realize
Link - ( New Window )
Of course it's more widespread than we know.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 4:15 pm : link
Hell, I guarantee there's posters on THIS THREAD that have it/had it.
I got really sick the last week of January  
bubba0825 : 3/17/2020 4:22 pm : link
And I’m not 100% it was the flu, I wasn’t tested just assumed it was by the doctor and gave me tamiflu
When this all settles down,  
Mr. Bungle : 3/17/2020 4:24 pm : link
imagine how badly everyone will need haircuts.
RE: 4 nets test positive  
GiantEgo : 3/17/2020 4:25 pm : link
In comment 14839516 bubba0825 said:
Quote:
For the virus. It’s way more widespread than we realize Link - ( New Window )


So here in Connecticut there are over 200 nurses that are now furloughed because they may have been exposed and the GOVENOR has been unable to get tests for them. Let's make sure fucking basketball players all get a test!
RE: When this all settles down,  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 4:27 pm : link
In comment 14839556 Mr. Bungle said:
Quote:
imagine how badly everyone will need haircuts.


Haha. I let mine grow out & no I doubt I'm getting one for awhile.
RE: I got really sick the last week of January  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 4:27 pm : link
In comment 14839550 bubba0825 said:
Quote:
And I’m not 100% it was the flu, I wasn’t tested just assumed it was by the doctor and gave me tamiflu


The first confirmed case was in Washington on January 19th from a man who came from Wuhan. So unless you live there its extremely, extremely unlikely.
Of course its more widespread then we realize  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 4:29 pm : link
it is why South Korea's numbers are much more accurate. Everywhere else many people aren't getting tested because they have mild symptoms/asymptomatic.
RE: Of course it's more widespread than we know.  
MetsAreBack : 3/17/2020 4:29 pm : link
In comment 14839532 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Hell, I guarantee there's posters on THIS THREAD that have it/had it.


yup, its why the aggregate mortality rates are completely useless. We have no idea what the damn denominator is. Right now its only counting for the most vulnerable and those showing clear and more moderate to worse symptoms (unless you're a celebrity or a professional sports player... then you seem to get a test easily)

On the other hand so many of the cases still have to be played out, and at least in the US, its still to new to have many official recoveries.
and if it is so widespread  
fkap : 3/17/2020 4:32 pm : link
and the bodies aren't piling up, what's that tell you?

I get that it's serious. So is destroying an economy, which carries tremendous health risks. People without jobs, money, or options. Life goods not being produced. An entire society marketing, business, processing going on hold may end up being far worse than the flu.

The widescale scope of the containment efforts are unprecedented in my life time. Mistakes are going to be made. This may well be a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't, but I'm far more afraid of the containment efforts/effects than I am of the virus (and I'm borderline in the at risk group, and may have had the virus - or simply a common cold, who knows - last week after traveling through Portugal and several airports).
between the  
fkap : 3/17/2020 4:33 pm : link
closure of the nail, hair, and beauty salons,
this could get ugly.
Anyone following  
rocco8112 : 3/17/2020 4:34 pm : link
this from the start could have predicted this. It spreads, it goes expoential, it cause double digits to go the hospital.


The virus is in control world events. If anyone said ten days ago NYC would be going into lockdown most would have thought they were nuts. Unless you were reading and learning about this pandemic from the jump. I do wonder why many decision makers and healthcare experts were not. Failure to test and screen will have a very high cost.
Many Californians ignoring directive ...  
Manny in CA : 3/17/2020 4:35 pm : link

Tons of people on the beach (just saw it on TV).

In France, you need a permit to be walking around ...

[url]https://www.yahoo.com/news/french-people-ignored-officials-warnings-112634326.html[url]
RE: and if it is so widespread  
GiantEgo : 3/17/2020 4:44 pm : link
In comment 14839574 fkap said:
Quote:
and the bodies aren't piling up, what's that tell you?



What is says is that it's early in the crisis.
RE: RE: and if it is so widespread  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 4:46 pm : link
In comment 14839598 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
In comment 14839574 fkap said:


Quote:


and the bodies aren't piling up, what's that tell you?





What is says is that it's early in the crisis.


no it doesnt, you have no idea where we are in the process, if more people have it that have no synptoms than what is reported in means the mortality rate is much much lower than reported..

You habe no idea where we are in the process, no one does
RE: RE: RE: and if it is so widespread  
GiantEgo : 3/17/2020 4:48 pm : link
In comment 14839602 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14839598 GiantEgo said:


Quote:


In comment 14839574 fkap said:


Quote:


and the bodies aren't piling up, what's that tell you?





What is says is that it's early in the crisis.



no it doesnt, you have no idea where we are in the process, if more people have it that have no synptoms than what is reported in means the mortality rate is much much lower than reported..

You habe no idea where we are in the process, no one does


WE don't know? Ask Italy.
RE: Anyone following  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 4:49 pm : link
In comment 14839582 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
this from the start could have predicted this. It spreads, it goes expoential, it cause double digits to go the hospital.


The virus is in control world events. If anyone said ten days ago NYC would be going into lockdown most would have thought they were nuts. Unless you were reading and learning about this pandemic from the jump. I do wonder why many decision makers and healthcare experts were not. Failure to test and screen will have a very high cost.


First off new york is not going into lockdown..

Second if more people have this with no symtoms that sre not reportrd it means the death rate is much much lower..

Also if it has spread that much already, why are the hospitals not overrun yet?

you can not habe it both ways, you cant say it is already widespresd and also say the hospitals will br overrun soon..

but you are the same person eho called it a war and millions of people are going to die
RE: RE: RE: RE: and if it is so widespread  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 4:53 pm : link
In comment 14839606 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
In comment 14839602 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


In comment 14839598 GiantEgo said:


Quote:


In comment 14839574 fkap said:


Quote:


and the bodies aren't piling up, what's that tell you?





What is says is that it's early in the crisis.



no it doesnt, you have no idea where we are in the process, if more people have it that have no synptoms than what is reported in means the mortality rate is much much lower than reported..

You habe no idea where we are in the process, no one does



WE don't know? Ask Italy.


do you have any idea why italy got so bad?
If it is widespread  
fkap : 3/17/2020 4:55 pm : link
and as deadly as is being touted by some, there should be more bodies. There isn't, therefore either it isn't widespread, or it isn't as deadly as being touted.

the truth is, we don't know what the truth is. We don't know how widespread it is, or how deadly it is.

I would think the virus was introduced into the country for weeks, or months. The period of action came quite late for containment purposes, so my own opinion is that IF it is as contagious as alleged, it should be widespread. There's probably some science on how contagious it is, but without knowing the numbers actually infected, the rest is speculation.
agreed it is speculation  
MetsAreBack : 3/17/2020 4:59 pm : link
but you also have to understand there is a 5-14 day incubation period before symptoms show up, generally, and then they become more severe over time. It can take up to a month for someone to die. Its scary stuff and there isnt one fucking country out there anymore (after UK finally woke up this week) advocating for BAU / herd immunity anymore.

We'll eventually know more... in the meantime separate and isolate as much as you possibly fucking can, and wash hands.
Fkap  
UConn4523 : 3/17/2020 5:14 pm : link
simply not true. You don’t just get touched and die, it can take weeks to show symptoms then weeks being sick. It’s basically a month or more from beginning to end for those that get symptoms.
Heads Up***** WHO says to avoid taking Anti-Inflammatory medicine  
montanagiant : 3/17/2020 5:17 pm : link
If diagnosed with the Coronavirus

Quote:
The World Health Organization recommended Tuesday that people suffering COVID-19 symptoms avoid taking ibuprofen, after French officials warned that anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen effects of the virus.

The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Veran followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections.
KD  
jmalls23 : 3/17/2020 5:31 pm : link
corona
I said it required a war time like response.  
rocco8112 : 3/17/2020 5:36 pm : link
I quoted one guy, a doctor Osterholm, who quoted a study from the American Hospital Association estimating 480K dead. I posted article link.

My main point all along was this spreads and it causes double digit hospitalizations (young people included), and it makes health-care workers sick. Threat of overloading medical system, which is bad.

Cuomo has been on TV everyday for over a week using charts and Numbers and pictures to make this very point.

I never claimed millions dead and I think ny point on threat to healthcare system has been validated.
Mayor  
rocco8112 : 3/17/2020 5:37 pm : link
literally said to prepare for shelter in.
nygiants 16:  
Raultney : 3/17/2020 5:41 pm : link
Here's why Italy got so bad:
There's a region in Italy (I forget which) that contains a large population of Wuhan Chinese. They make inexpensive fashion accessories using materials made in China. They got so busy that they started a non-stop flight from Italy to Wuhan.

In news from the ROK (which everyone seems to see as the model for how to handle this thing) we're still getting cluster outbreaks. Most recently, we had one in a call center in Guro-gu, Seoul last week and another in a church in Seongnam, Seoul the other day.

See the connection? Avoid crowded places.

The ROK just shipped 51,000 test kits to the UAE.
Zeke, MAB, FMiC  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 5:42 pm : link
First of all, what I posted above I said was a worst case if we do nothing, and the hospitals are overwhelmed.

I have also pointed out many times that the fatality rate depends on available medical care. I have said that SK mortality rate is going to about 1.3% because the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Italy is trending towards 7%. Honestly look at their numbers and tell me how you can estimate anything lower than 7%.

Guys, context is important. You are always taking what I say out of the context in which I said it and twist it.

You do it so much, and it is so deceptive, you guys are liars. The truth is in the posts.
RE: Mayor  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 5:46 pm : link
In comment 14839716 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
literally said to prepare for shelter in.


and cuomo said that is not happening, it is his call not de blasio
RE: nygiants 16:  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 5:47 pm : link
In comment 14839723 Raultney said:
Quote:
Here's why Italy got so bad:
There's a region in Italy (I forget which) that contains a large population of Wuhan Chinese. They make inexpensive fashion accessories using materials made in China. They got so busy that they started a non-stop flight from Italy to Wuhan.

In news from the ROK (which everyone seems to see as the model for how to handle this thing) we're still getting cluster outbreaks. Most recently, we had one in a call center in Guro-gu, Seoul last week and another in a church in Seongnam, Seoul the other day.

See the connection? Avoid crowded places.

The ROK just shipped 51,000 test kits to the UAE.


i know why italy got so bad
RE: Heads Up***** WHO says to avoid taking Anti-Inflammatory medicine  
bw in dc : 3/17/2020 5:48 pm : link
In comment 14839689 montanagiant said:
Quote:
If diagnosed with the Coronavirus



Quote:


The World Health Organization recommended Tuesday that people suffering COVID-19 symptoms avoid taking ibuprofen, after French officials warned that anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen effects of the virus.

The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Veran followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections.



Wonder what they recommend to deal with the fever part...

RE: RE: Mayor  
rocco8112 : 3/17/2020 5:56 pm : link
In comment 14839736 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14839716 rocco8112 said:


Quote:


literally said to prepare for shelter in.



and cuomo said that is not happening, it is his call not de blasio

missed that ok


well on the table at least
RE: RE: nygiants 16:  
Raultney : 3/17/2020 5:56 pm : link
In comment 14839739 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
i know why italy got so bad

Ah, so it was a rhetorical question. My apologies.
RE: RE: Heads Up***** WHO says to avoid taking Anti-Inflammatory medicine  
rocco8112 : 3/17/2020 5:57 pm : link
In comment 14839741 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14839689 montanagiant said:


Quote:


If diagnosed with the Coronavirus



Quote:


The World Health Organization recommended Tuesday that people suffering COVID-19 symptoms avoid taking ibuprofen, after French officials warned that anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen effects of the virus.

The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Veran followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections.





Wonder what they recommend to deal with the fever part...


probably Tylenol

i am not a doctor
RE: RE: RE: Mayor  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 6:02 pm : link
In comment 14839759 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
In comment 14839736 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


In comment 14839716 rocco8112 said:


Quote:


literally said to prepare for shelter in.



and cuomo said that is not happening, it is his call not de blasio


missed that ok


well on the table at least


Cuomo said he expects thr peak within 45 days and he does not want to quarantine the city becahse he knows the second he announces it everyone will leave and go somewhere else
RE: RE: RE: Mayor  
black aces : 3/17/2020 6:03 pm : link
In comment 14839759 rocco8112 said:
Quote:
In comment 14839736 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


In comment 14839716 rocco8112 said:


Quote:


literally said to prepare for shelter in.



and cuomo said that is not happening, it is his call not de blasio


missed that ok


well on the table at least


Not happening yet. I would say that the situation can change any day. I also think nothing is off the table.
RE: RE: Heads Up***** WHO says to avoid taking Anti-Inflammatory medicine  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 6:06 pm : link
In comment 14839741 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14839689 montanagiant said:


Quote:


If diagnosed with the Coronavirus



Quote:


The World Health Organization recommended Tuesday that people suffering COVID-19 symptoms avoid taking ibuprofen, after French officials warned that anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen effects of the virus.

The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Veran followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections.





Wonder what they recommend to deal with the fever part...

What I read is that NSAIDs exacerbate the disease.
So don't take ibuprofen
What I read suggested acetaminophen
Georgia reports 25 new cases since yesterday  
montanagiant : 3/17/2020 6:13 pm : link
They now have 146 cases
This link shows the current level of the disease  
montanagiant : 3/17/2020 6:18 pm : link
And it tracks
Quote:
deaths, numbers of cases locally and globally, and provides an interactive map, information on the disease, and a Twitter feed. The resource updates every minute or so, and pulls information from the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and elsewhere.


It was built by a 17-year-old
link - ( New Window )
RE: Zeke, MAB, FMiC  
MetsAreBack : 3/17/2020 6:22 pm : link
In comment 14839727 .McL. said:
Quote:
First of all, what I posted above I said was a worst case if we do nothing, and the hospitals are overwhelmed.

I have also pointed out many times that the fatality rate depends on available medical care. I have said that SK mortality rate is going to about 1.3% because the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Italy is trending towards 7%. Honestly look at their numbers and tell me how you can estimate anything lower than 7%.

Guys, context is important. You are always taking what I say out of the context in which I said it and twist it.

You do it so much, and it is so deceptive, you guys are liars. The truth is in the posts.


This wasn’t worth a response but you do realize Italy’s 7% statistic isn’t reflective of its broader population or of the US population. The average age of death in Italy has been north of 70 last I checked a day or two ago. Is the average age of the world population 70? How many kids or people under 40 have even been counted in Italy’s statistics?

You can call us liars .... I think you’re a drama queen who has no idea how to use statistics or numbers. Which makes you dangerous if given a microphone. Tell me again how young people are fucked too because 25 people under 50 years old are in ICU in the Netherlands

And your poor mother is living with you right now? The poor woman, you must be miserable to be around
RE: RE: Zeke, MAB, FMiC  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 6:32 pm : link
In comment 14839824 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14839727 .McL. said:


Quote:


First of all, what I posted above I said was a worst case if we do nothing, and the hospitals are overwhelmed.

I have also pointed out many times that the fatality rate depends on available medical care. I have said that SK mortality rate is going to about 1.3% because the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Italy is trending towards 7%. Honestly look at their numbers and tell me how you can estimate anything lower than 7%.

Guys, context is important. You are always taking what I say out of the context in which I said it and twist it.

You do it so much, and it is so deceptive, you guys are liars. The truth is in the posts.



This wasn’t worth a response but you do realize Italy’s 7% statistic isn’t reflective of its broader population or of the US population. The average age of death in Italy has been north of 70 last I checked a day or two ago. Is the average age of the world population 70? How many kids or people under 40 have even been counted in Italy’s statistics?

You can call us liars .... I think you’re a drama queen who has no idea how to use statistics or numbers. Which makes you dangerous if given a microphone. Tell me again how young people are fucked too because 25 people under 50 years old are in ICU in the Netherlands

And your poor mother is living with you right now? The poor woman, you must be miserable to be around

Again [b]WORST CASE SCENARIO IF THE HOSPITALS GET OVERWHELMED[b]

reading comprehension is not your strong suit.
RE: RE: Zeke, MAB, FMiC  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 6:35 pm : link
In comment 14839824 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14839727 .McL. said:


Quote:


First of all, what I posted above I said was a worst case if we do nothing, and the hospitals are overwhelmed.

I have also pointed out many times that the fatality rate depends on available medical care. I have said that SK mortality rate is going to about 1.3% because the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Italy is trending towards 7%. Honestly look at their numbers and tell me how you can estimate anything lower than 7%.

Guys, context is important. You are always taking what I say out of the context in which I said it and twist it.

You do it so much, and it is so deceptive, you guys are liars. The truth is in the posts.



This wasn’t worth a response but you do realize Italy’s 7% statistic isn’t reflective of its broader population or of the US population. The average age of death in Italy has been north of 70 last I checked a day or two ago. Is the average age of the world population 70? How many kids or people under 40 have even been counted in Italy’s statistics?

You can call us liars .... I think you’re a drama queen who has no idea how to use statistics or numbers. Which makes you dangerous if given a microphone. Tell me again how young people are fucked too because 25 people under 50 years old are in ICU in the Netherlands

And your poor mother is living with you right now? The poor woman, you must be miserable to be around

Oh and my mother says, you are too young, callous, and ignorant. Without understanding history people like you are bound to repeat the worst of it.
Kevin Durant  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 6:41 pm : link
positive - he was one of the Nets - not sure if it's in this thread.
French researcher posts successful Covid-19 drug trial  
since1925 : 3/17/2020 7:27 pm : link
Professor Raoult is an infectious diseases specialist and head of the IHU Méditerranée Infection, who has been tasked by - and consulted by - the French government to research possible treatments of Covid-19.

He said that the first Covid-19 patients he had treated with the drug chloroquine had seen a rapid and effective speeding up of their healing process, and a sharp decrease in the amount of time they remained contagious.
Full article. - ( New Window )
RE: Of course it's more widespread than we know.  
Bill in UT : 3/17/2020 7:46 pm : link
In comment 14839532 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Hell, I guarantee there's posters on THIS THREAD that have it/had it.


Let us know who they are so I don't risk clicking on their posts
Went to Costco yesterday  
Bill in UT : 3/17/2020 7:53 pm : link
Huge line 45 minutes before opening. Strangely (?) they had no chicken, no potatoes. Plenty of beef- I guess most people don't have the freezer space to hoard it. No surface disinfectant. Went to my supermarket when it opened at 6 am this morning. Also long lines. Again, no potatoes, they were just stocking some chicken. Wtf with the potatoes? My 50th anniversary party got cancelled because of the virus and I'm making a small dinner at home instead. I was going to do some roasted fingerling potatoes, but I'm SOL.
Trader Joe’s had a ton of potatoes this morning  
UConn4523 : 3/17/2020 8:00 pm : link
they actually had everything. Got chicken, steak, and cubed beef for a stew I made tonight.

People were extremely nice this morning. Their staff and everyone in line - I even commented to them how people are actually bringing carts back instead of leaving them in parking spaces which is one of those things that makes me hate people.
NBA saying  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 8:01 pm : link
they expect to start seaaon/playoffs before july
RE: Trader Joe’s had a ton of potatoes this morning  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 8:02 pm : link
In comment 14840044 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
they actually had everything. Got chicken, steak, and cubed beef for a stew I made tonight.

People were extremely nice this morning. Their staff and everyone in line - I even commented to them how people are actually bringing carts back instead of leaving them in parking spaces which is one of those things that makes me hate people.

You are a brave man to venture out like that!
Hmm  
madhatter9382 : 3/17/2020 8:04 pm : link
Thoughts?

Australian researchers find “cure” for coronavirus - ( New Window )
RE: Trader Joe’s had a ton of potatoes this morning  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 8:12 pm : link
In comment 14840044 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
they actually had everything. Got chicken, steak, and cubed beef for a stew I made tonight.

People were extremely nice this morning. Their staff and everyone in line - I even commented to them how people are actually bringing carts back instead of leaving them in parking spaces which is one of those things that makes me hate people.


Well I just got back from Publix, again, and everything is gone. After talking to some managers there is a line of 150 people every morning before they open. I imagine the old folks are getting there at 6 am for an 8 am open. People are still stuffing their carts like its going out of style. Have no idea where you live, maybe some nicer suburb that serves a limited amount of people, but every Publix in Tampa Bay is a ghost town.

.
I know this doesn't really fit on this thread....  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:12 pm : link
but I've really been enjoying my time home with my family. In some weird way, this is just what I needed. In the days leading up to the school closures, I was miserable. The negativity and fear just beating down my door. This week, I've set up a pseudo classroom in my garage for my 8 and 5 year old and have been their teacher. We go on daily walks in our neighborhood. My wife is home, too. I haven't really been paying attention to the news, and it's been liberating, for lack of a better word. I feel great. We are being responsible and for the most part self quarantining. But the weather has been incredible. We go on daily walks as a family. This will pass, but in the meantime, I'm going to take advantage of all this quality time with my family, and with my neighbors who I see out walking the neighborhood.
I live in CT near New Haven  
UConn4523 : 3/17/2020 8:14 pm : link
I waited in line for about 20-30 minutes, got there late after doing daycare drop off (still open but probably not for long). Not going tomorrow but one of myself or my wife will go on Thursday or Friday to keep things moderately stocked.

I wouldn’t go at night, everything is going to be gone. Might have to just bite the bullet and go early and then be done with it. Grab a coffee, load up Netflix and just chill!
Do you guys have an instacart service available?  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:15 pm : link
Or any type of shopping that allows like a drive through pickup?
McL you are now saying worst case scenario and that will be your  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 8:17 pm : link
catch all when it inevitably doesn't happen. You'll also say the numbers pointed towards Italy trending towards 7 percent. They sure are but other places arent going be as hard hit, because they wont have their government actively telling them its a hoax and to go out eating and drinking. Then when that ineveitable doesn't happen, you'll just say the numbers were trending towards 7 percent. Like I said you know your math, but willingly ignore context, or even small sample sizes to back up what your "point" is.

RE: Do you guys have an instacart service available?  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 8:19 pm : link
In comment 14840076 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
Or any type of shopping that allows like a drive through pickup?


I mean you are going to need to go in the stores to get produce. I doubt they even list it on there because its never available.
RE: Hmm  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 8:19 pm : link
In comment 14840053 madhatter9382 said:
Quote:
Thoughts? Australian researchers find “cure” for coronavirus - ( New Window )

In my long post, I mentioned that there are some mitigations coming... I mentioned an anti-viral cocktail, this is what I was referring to. Oh and by the way, the Chinese figured it out toward the end of their peak. Its been known about for weeks, but of course hasn't been tested outside of China, except now in Australia.

The Fort Lee man who was the 1st NJ patient is Chinese and a healthcare worker. He was aware of the drug cocktail and Chinese results. He is 32 years old and was getting worse, he told the doctors about the drug cocktail, they gave it to him and he seems to have responded and is now recovering.
RE: I know this doesn't really fit on this thread....  
Jim from Katonah : 3/17/2020 8:20 pm : link
In comment 14840070 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
but I've really been enjoying my time home with my family. In some weird way, this is just what I needed. In the days leading up to the school closures, I was miserable. The negativity and fear just beating down my door. This week, I've set up a pseudo classroom in my garage for my 8 and 5 year old and have been their teacher. We go on daily walks in our neighborhood. My wife is home, too. I haven't really been paying attention to the news, and it's been liberating, for lack of a better word. I feel great. We are being responsible and for the most part self quarantining. But the weather has been incredible. We go on daily walks as a family. This will pass, but in the meantime, I'm going to take advantage of all this quality time with my family, and with my neighbors who I see out walking the neighborhood.


Amen and agreed.
RE: French researcher posts successful Covid-19 drug trial  
Rory : 3/17/2020 8:20 pm : link
In comment 14839976 since1925 said:
[quote] Professor Raoult is an infectious diseases specialist and head of the IHU Méditerranée Infection, who has been tasked by - and consulted by - the French government to research possible treatments of Covid-19.

He said that the first Covid-19 patients he had treated with the drug chloroquine had seen a rapid and effective speeding up of their healing process, and a sharp decrease in the amount of time they remained contagious. Full article. - ( New Window ) [/quote

Huge and great news to read.
RE: RE: Do you guys have an instacart service available?  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:21 pm : link
In comment 14840078 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14840076 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


Or any type of shopping that allows like a drive through pickup?



I mean you are going to need to go in the stores to get produce. I doubt they even list it on there because its never available.


Guess it depends on where you live.... Wasn't a problem here in Richmond VA. We had to place the order on Sunday and it didn't get delivered til today, but it got delivered and we got most of what we ordered.
RE: I live in CT near New Haven  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 8:22 pm : link
In comment 14840075 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
I waited in line for about 20-30 minutes, got there late after doing daycare drop off (still open but probably not for long). Not going tomorrow but one of myself or my wife will go on Thursday or Friday to keep things moderately stocked.

I wouldn’t go at night, everything is going to be gone. Might have to just bite the bullet and go early and then be done with it. Grab a coffee, load up Netflix and just chill!


Thats actually reassuring. No way I'm waiting in line because they give me PTSD but it sounds like they don't sell out the instant the open. I just need goddamn frozen veggies, chicken ,and maybe bananas, but fruit seems to be available like kiwis, pineapple, and watermelon. Fuck I'm going to make a list and a plan of attack right now.
Fox just reported that an NYC police officer...  
bw in dc : 3/17/2020 8:22 pm : link
has tested positive for COVID-19. And four other officers have been sent home...

I don't think this is wise reporting. I would want the community to always the police is at full force and healthy. Even if they aren't.

I wouldn't want to tempt anyone to take advantage of a situation where a police force is hit hard and under staffed...
Britt, glad to hear you're enjoying your time @ home.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 8:22 pm : link
My office is doing staggering schedules, i.e. I'm in the rest of this week/off next week. The crazy thing is that it seems like everyone else is working from home. Nobody is on the road. Besides a coworker or two, I'm not really in contact with anyone.

My cousin who lives in NJ is still working in Newark & he said the trains have been ghost towns all week.
RE: McL you are now saying worst case scenario and that will be your  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 8:22 pm : link
In comment 14840077 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
catch all when it inevitably doesn't happen. You'll also say the numbers pointed towards Italy trending towards 7 percent. They sure are but other places arent going be as hard hit, because they wont have their government actively telling them its a hoax and to go out eating and drinking. Then when that ineveitable doesn't happen, you'll just say the numbers were trending towards 7 percent. Like I said you know your math, but willingly ignore context, or even small sample sizes to back up what your "point" is.


I am not saying it after the fact to cover my ass, I said it in the damn post...
Let me quote it for you...

Quote:
To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.

Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.

And people say its just like the flu.


Go back and read the quote and you will see that is what I wrote.
Zeke  
UConn4523 : 3/17/2020 8:25 pm : link
Traders is only allowing 7-10 customers in at a time, 2 per item max. Atleast by me. They are also closing early (7pm) to disinfect every day.
People are scared.  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:26 pm : link
That's why the grocery stores are empty. But the food supply is not going to be disrupted. This isn't like a natural disaster like a hurricane. There is no need to stockpile food, or toilet paper for that matter. Just be smart.
Seke  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 8:28 pm : link
Hell I even said it can be avoided
Guys,  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:29 pm : link
I implore you all. Take a break for a day or two. Step away from the screen. Be safe, be smart, but just unplug. I'm amazed at what that's done for my mental health in just a few days. I still check in, but just once or twice a day. I'm telling you, it's liberating. Studying numbers of an outbreak as a bystander does no good for your mental health.
RE: Zeke  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 8:30 pm : link
In comment 14840089 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
Traders is only allowing 7-10 customers in at a time, 2 per item max. Atleast by me. They are also closing early (7pm) to disinfect every day.


Thanks for the info, there actually is one a mile away from me. Going to pop in there tomorrow, sounds like my best bet. Although I don't have time to wait in line, which is the issue.
at least from the virus stuff...  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:30 pm : link
obviously we're all following Free Agency.
What is draconian social distancing? Literally locking people inside?  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 8:32 pm : link
Thats the issue, lots of words with no real definition, that I'm sure you'll use to fit your narrative later.
Lol the host on CNN is losing his mind because people are holding  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 8:34 pm : link
hands right now. I mean does he think these people quarantine themselves away from everyone. Is anyone sleeping in different beds then their significant other? Is he?
RE: RE: French researcher posts successful Covid-19 drug trial  
PatersonPlank : 3/17/2020 8:37 pm : link
In comment 14840081 Rory said:
Quote:
In comment 14839976 since1925 said:
[quote] Professor Raoult is an infectious diseases specialist and head of the IHU Méditerranée Infection, who has been tasked by - and consulted by - the French government to research possible treatments of Covid-19.

He said that the first Covid-19 patients he had treated with the drug chloroquine had seen a rapid and effective speeding up of their healing process, and a sharp decrease in the amount of time they remained contagious. Full article. - ( New Window ) [/quote

Huge and great news to read.


I read about a researcher in France who also came up with a treatment. They aren't getting any press though.
RE: Britt, glad to hear you're enjoying your time @ home.  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:40 pm : link
In comment 14840086 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
My office is doing staggering schedules, i.e. I'm in the rest of this week/off next week. The crazy thing is that it seems like everyone else is working from home. Nobody is on the road. Besides a coworker or two, I'm not really in contact with anyone.

My cousin who lives in NJ is still working in Newark & he said the trains have been ghost towns all week.


Same, and thanks. I think I read that you were a little anxious a couple days ago. I am too, a worrier by nature. I feel much better today. This will pass. We're all going to be alright. It's a reset to a degree, at least how I'm looking at it. Just a reset to all be at home for awhile, get away from the grind of things. Get re-centered. This will pass and we will be back to business as usual, shortly. If you have time at home with your loved ones, take advantage of it and enjoy it.
RE: Guys,  
bw in dc : 3/17/2020 8:44 pm : link
In comment 14840099 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
I implore you all. Take a break for a day or two. Step away from the screen. Be safe, be smart, but just unplug. I'm amazed at what that's done for my mental health in just a few days. I still check in, but just once or twice a day. I'm telling you, it's liberating. Studying numbers of an outbreak as a bystander does no good for your mental health.


I work in the healthcare space on the Risk Management side. We are modeling out the potential impact this is going to have our cost of care - and the clients we manage - for the next three quarters. So am neck deep in it every day.

I don't even look at the current numbers. We are looking where they likely end up in May, June and July. At times, the results can be staggering on the high end...

I hope people start using telemedicine if their insurer offers it as an option. Would help cut down on a lot of traffic...

RE: What is draconian social distancing? Literally locking people inside?  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 8:46 pm : link
In comment 14840104 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
Thats the issue, lots of words with no real definition, that I'm sure you'll use to fit your narrative later.

Let me quote you my post again... Man no wonder you guys have a such a hard time with this stuff...

Quote:
To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China.


So draconian measures similar to China... So Yes, keeping everybody at home, as little interaction as possible. Supplies should be delivered by National Guard. Don't leave home.

Is that clear enough.

What's more is, that the sooner you implement these measures, the less time you need to maintain them. Although you cannot relax too much before a vaccine or effective treatments are widely available, otherwise the virus will start spreading and doing the doubling thing again.
Zeke  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 8:48 pm : link
The whole point of the post was to highlight what happens if you do nothing, the worst case.

The cost of doing nothing is many times higher than living through draconian measures for a period of time.
RE: Lol the host on CNN is losing his mind because people are holding  
Rory : 3/17/2020 8:48 pm : link
In comment 14840108 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
hands right now. I mean does he think these people quarantine themselves away from everyone. Is anyone sleeping in different beds then their significant other? Is he?


I get what you're saying but he needs too, go drive around for 30 minutes. What you'll see is enraging

I went to get gas earlier and saw women and their children coming out of target with clothes, decor, bedding and other non essential items.

RE: RE: Guys,  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:48 pm : link
In comment 14840125 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14840099 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


I implore you all. Take a break for a day or two. Step away from the screen. Be safe, be smart, but just unplug. I'm amazed at what that's done for my mental health in just a few days. I still check in, but just once or twice a day. I'm telling you, it's liberating. Studying numbers of an outbreak as a bystander does no good for your mental health.



I work in the healthcare space on the Risk Management side. We are modeling out the potential impact this is going to have our cost of care - and the clients we manage - for the next three quarters. So am neck deep in it every day.

I don't even look at the current numbers. We are looking where they likely end up in May, June and July. At times, the results can be staggering on the high end...

I hope people start using telemedicine if their insurer offers it as an option. Would help cut down on a lot of traffic...


My wife works for Anthem. We've been using telemedicine for years, and more recently Dispatch Health for house calls. Minute clinics in your local drug stores are also good options for things like flu and strep tests. There are options out there. Just got to know what they are.
RE: Do you guys have an instacart service available?  
Bill in UT : 3/17/2020 8:49 pm : link
In comment 14840076 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
Or any type of shopping that allows like a drive through pickup?


The pickup and delivery services at my local supermarket were a few day out.
RE: RE: Do you guys have an instacart service available?  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 8:50 pm : link
In comment 14840135 Bill in UT said:
Quote:
In comment 14840076 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


Or any type of shopping that allows like a drive through pickup?



The pickup and delivery services at my local supermarket were a few day out.


Here too. And that's okay. When the hysteria dies down, it will all be restocked. Buy enough for two weeks, then re-evaluate.
RE: People are scared.  
Bill in UT : 3/17/2020 8:52 pm : link
In comment 14840091 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
That's why the grocery stores are empty. But the food supply is not going to be disrupted. This isn't like a natural disaster like a hurricane. There is no need to stockpile food, or toilet paper for that matter. Just be smart.


this
All of epidemiology models ....  
Jim from Katonah : 3/17/2020 9:02 pm : link
... like the Imperial College model use death rates (0.9%) and hospitalization rates (4.4%) drawn from data in Wuhan, using a denominator of confirmed infections instead of the potentially massive “actual infection” number. People read the grim headline and see the name “Imperial College London” and don’t read the report and don’t understand that modeling is soft science that is only as good as the assumptions or think on their own ... and it just reinforces this apocalyptic scenario. And then groupthink discourages people from dissenting lest they be accused of being anti-science yahoos.

650,000 died from the seasonal flu in 2019. Covid has been kicking around the world for almost 4 months and has killed 8,000. I’ll spare you all another regurgitation of the stats on mildness and recovery rates, but to anyone reading this and getting mad at an opposing point of view ... just take a moment and stop trying to double down and win your argument, and consider that maybe, possibly that you’ve got some cabin fever and are stressed and engaging in some serious confirmation bias. I will do the same!
Wife's working from home.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 9:05 pm : link
Just walked into her 43535349579843598th viewing of A Walk To Remember.

Thankfully we got enough beer to last until Joe Judge is raising his 2nd Lombardi in 2025.
RE: Hmm  
mitch300 : 3/17/2020 9:08 pm : link
In comment 14840053 madhatter9382 said:
Quote:
Thoughts? Australian researchers find “cure” for coronavirus - ( New Window )

Interesting that the French scientist also says using choraline ( I know the spelling is wrong)
RE: Wife's working from home.  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 9:11 pm : link
In comment 14840158 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Just walked into her 43535349579843598th viewing of A Walk To Remember.

Thankfully we got enough beer to last until Joe Judge is raising his 2nd Lombardi in 2025.


I dont drink anymore and cant get weed, i have a little left..
RE: RE: Hmm  
GFAN52 : 3/17/2020 9:16 pm : link
In comment 14840163 mitch300 said:
Quote:
In comment 14840053 madhatter9382 said:


Quote:


Thoughts? Australian researchers find “cure” for coronavirus - ( New Window )


Interesting that the French scientist also says using choraline ( I know the spelling is wrong)


They'll come up with a vaccine for sure even in the US and as well as overseas, the problem is it won't be available for another year at best after it goes through the new drug testing protocols.
dispensaries  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 9:21 pm : link
in MA are still open. It's funny what businesses survive. in MA, liquor stores and the dispensaries are open.

at the dispensary you have to give them your cell phone number and wait in your car, and they'll text you when it's your turn to enter the store. Inside the store the entire floor has black X's on them 6 feet apart and you have to stand on an X until it's your turn with the clerk.

everyone in the store is polite and manages to adhere to the protocol.

Weed, the carrot at the end of the stick, people need to fall in line.
RE: RE: RE: Do you guys have an instacart service available?  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 9:26 pm : link
In comment 14840137 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
In comment 14840135 Bill in UT said:





Here too. And that's okay. When the hysteria dies down, it will all be restocked. Buy enough for two weeks, then re-evaluate.


I really worry about the produce. The supply chains aren't meant to handle that, and to boot it seems like this shit scared everyone into eating healthier. People def weren't eating this many fruits and veggies before. Its not like you get that stuff at restaurants or takeout.
Pjcas  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 9:30 pm : link
Liquor stores will always thrive in times like these. The thought of being cooped up in a house for an unknown amount of time...yes, I think I'll have like 20 more 6 packs, thank you.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Do you guys have an instacart service available?  
Britt in VA : 3/17/2020 9:30 pm : link
In comment 14840193 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14840137 Britt in VA said:


Quote:


In comment 14840135 Bill in UT said:





Here too. And that's okay. When the hysteria dies down, it will all be restocked. Buy enough for two weeks, then re-evaluate.



I really worry about the produce. The supply chains aren't meant to handle that, and to boot it seems like this shit scared everyone into eating healthier. People def weren't eating this many fruits and veggies before. Its not like you get that stuff at restaurants or takeout.


Fruits and veggies don't keep. The people that panic bought will figure that out real quick when they throw half that shit out in a week that they didn't get to.
RE: Zeke  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 9:33 pm : link
In comment 14840131 .McL. said:
Quote:
The whole point of the post was to highlight what happens if you do nothing, the worst case.

The cost of doing nothing is many times higher than living through draconian measures for a period of time.


Got it... so what you are essentially saying is those numbers are going to happen if we don't go full China. Okay just wanted to make sure that was clear. We'll find out fairly soon, because no way that is happening here. Even if it looked like the disease was killing people numbers you are stating, what we know about the target population no way we go full China. So unless there is a miraculous cure coming in the next month, we'll find out.
Britt, I'm going to disagree with you, nobody is panic buying over  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/17/2020 9:35 pm : link
fresh produce. Everyone knows it goes bad. I think this shit scared people into eating healthier.
I have a relative  
Big Al : 3/17/2020 9:36 pm : link
who works at Hackensack Medical Center. I talked to him as he just got off from work. His comment. “It is a lot worse than they are telling you”.
RE: All of epidemiology models ....  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 9:39 pm : link
In comment 14840152 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
... like the Imperial College model use death rates (0.9%) and hospitalization rates (4.4%) drawn from data in Wuhan, using a denominator of confirmed infections instead of the potentially massive “actual infection” number.

Actually, that is not what they did with the model...

So just setting the record straight.

First the idea that there is a "potentially massive actual numbers" was debunked in the study. WHO is saying they are finding about 15% of the population have antibodies that were not counted... This study is using a value 3x that saying 40 - 50%. And said it doesn't seem like it will be higher than that. So that is what they based the model upon 40 - 50%. Plus the vast majority of those are people under age 20, who we already know do not suffer significant illness.

The .09% and 4.4% numbers were a best case scenario where medical care was available to all who get sick.

They go on to say that even in that rosy case, the Hospitals will be overwhelmed sometime in April.

There are a bunch of charts at the end for various scenarios. None treat the healthcare system well.

The point of the study was to highlight that even in a best case scenario, the healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed.
spring break going on as usual  
gtt350 : 3/17/2020 9:41 pm : link
and they're driving not flying. They need to understand what's going on
RE: RE: RE: Hmm  
mitch300 : 3/17/2020 9:42 pm : link
In comment 14840174 GFAN52 said:
Quote:
In comment 14840163 mitch300 said:


Quote:


In comment 14840053 madhatter9382 said:


Quote:


Thoughts? Australian researchers find “cure” for coronavirus - ( New Window )


Interesting that the French scientist also says using choraline ( I know the spelling is wrong)



They'll come up with a vaccine for sure even in the US and as well as overseas, the problem is it won't be available for another year at best after it goes through the new drug testing protocols.

Agree. However, if the choraline is available in pill form it’s better than nothing.
RE: spring break going on as usual  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 9:48 pm : link
In comment 14840212 gtt350 said:
Quote:
and they're driving not flying. They need to understand what's going on


I was an idiot between 18-22. Hell, some would argue I'm still an idiot now...:-)

That said, these kids need to understand the gravity of what's going on. Even if they'll probably be fine, they could pass this on to their folks, grandparents, & those with weak immune systems who won't be fine. Those clips yesterday of Clearwater, FL...WTF?
RE: RE: Zeke  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 9:51 pm : link
In comment 14840200 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14840131 .McL. said:


Quote:


The whole point of the post was to highlight what happens if you do nothing, the worst case.

The cost of doing nothing is many times higher than living through draconian measures for a period of time.



Got it... so what you are essentially saying is those numbers are going to happen if we don't go full China. Okay just wanted to make sure that was clear. We'll find out fairly soon, because no way that is happening here. Even if it looked like the disease was killing people numbers you are stating, what we know about the target population no way we go full China. So unless there is a miraculous cure coming in the next month, we'll find out.

That we will never go full China, we agree...
Americans go surfing in hurricanes.
.  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 10:00 pm : link
RE: RE: All of epidemiology models ....  
Jim from Katonah : 3/17/2020 10:05 pm : link
In comment 14840208 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14840152 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


... like the Imperial College model use death rates (0.9%) and hospitalization rates (4.4%) drawn from data in Wuhan, using a denominator of confirmed infections instead of the potentially massive “actual infection” number.


Actually, that is not what they did with the model...

So just setting the record straight.

First the idea that there is a "potentially massive actual numbers" was debunked in the study. WHO is saying they are finding about 15% of the population have antibodies that were not counted... This study is using a value 3x that saying 40 - 50%. And said it doesn't seem like it will be higher than that. So that is what they based the model upon 40 - 50%. Plus the vast majority of those are people under age 20, who we already know do not suffer significant illness.

The .09% and 4.4% numbers were a best case scenario where medical care was available to all who get sick.

They go on to say that even in that rosy case, the Hospitals will be overwhelmed sometime in April.

There are a bunch of charts at the end for various scenarios. None treat the healthcare system well.

The point of the study was to highlight that even in a best case scenario, the healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed.


I just read an estimate from J Hopkins that there between 25X to 50X more actual infections than confirmed Infections. As of this moment there are 6,900 confirmed infections in the US, putting us in a range of 170,000 to 340,000 actual infections. Applying the 0.9 death rate, we should have between 1,500 to 3,000 deaths. We have 110, and 1/3 of those came from a cluster of nursing homes in Kirkland WA.

RE: RE: spring break going on as usual  
Rory : 3/17/2020 10:07 pm : link
In comment 14840228 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
In comment 14840212 gtt350 said:


Quote:


and they're driving not flying. They need to understand what's going on



I was an idiot between 18-22. Hell, some would argue I'm still an idiot now...:-)

That said, these kids need to understand the gravity of what's going on. Even if they'll probably be fine, they could pass this on to their folks, grandparents, & those with weak immune systems who won't be fine. Those clips yesterday of Clearwater, FL...WTF?


If that is gonna happen then you need to hit the right platforms...IG/FB/Snapchat/Hinge/Bumble/Tiktok all need to start getting involved and send out some public statement.
For pjcas  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 10:08 pm : link
.  
pjcas18 : 3/17/2020 10:11 pm : link
RE: RE: RE: All of epidemiology models ....  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 10:18 pm : link
In comment 14840257 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14840208 .McL. said:


Quote:


In comment 14840152 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


... like the Imperial College model use death rates (0.9%) and hospitalization rates (4.4%) drawn from data in Wuhan, using a denominator of confirmed infections instead of the potentially massive “actual infection” number.


Actually, that is not what they did with the model...

So just setting the record straight.

First the idea that there is a "potentially massive actual numbers" was debunked in the study. WHO is saying they are finding about 15% of the population have antibodies that were not counted... This study is using a value 3x that saying 40 - 50%. And said it doesn't seem like it will be higher than that. So that is what they based the model upon 40 - 50%. Plus the vast majority of those are people under age 20, who we already know do not suffer significant illness.

The .09% and 4.4% numbers were a best case scenario where medical care was available to all who get sick.

They go on to say that even in that rosy case, the Hospitals will be overwhelmed sometime in April.

There are a bunch of charts at the end for various scenarios. None treat the healthcare system well.

The point of the study was to highlight that even in a best case scenario, the healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed.



I just read an estimate from J Hopkins that there between 25X to 50X more actual infections than confirmed Infections. As of this moment there are 6,900 confirmed infections in the US, putting us in a range of 170,000 to 340,000 actual infections. Applying the 0.9 death rate, we should have between 1,500 to 3,000 deaths. We have 110, and 1/3 of those came from a cluster of nursing homes in Kirkland WA.

context matters...

Without testing we don't know whats out there.

What we are seeing now is people who were infected 5 to 14 days ago, who have been spreading all that time. Plus there are literally thousands who have it but can't get tested.

What Johns Hopkins actually said was that right now 86% of those who are infected are undetected. That doesn't mean that they will remain undetected.

WHO and Imperial College and many other places are not saying that there will be anything like 25 - 50x out there that went unconfirmed when this is all said and done.
RE: I have a relative  
UConn4523 : 3/17/2020 10:18 pm : link
In comment 14840202 Big Al said:
Quote:
who works at Hackensack Medical Center. I talked to him as he just got off from work. His comment. “It is a lot worse than they are telling you”.


Yup. My friend said the same, his buddies at various hospitals have been giving him updates here and there. My friends concerned because his wife is a nurse and he said they just arent equipped to keep the staff safe. That the PPE in Wuhan is far superior to what’s available for medical professionals here.
Jim  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 10:30 pm : link
Assuming that their 86% number is correct. The 14% that have been detected are all cases from at least 5 days ago, probably more. Do the math, 6500 now really means 6500 days ago and that that represent only 14% at that time. You get about 46.5K infections days ago. The spread is causing doubling every 2.5 days. So it has gone through 2 to 3 doubling cycles... If only 2 that means that there are 185K cases. If 3x doubling its 370K cases. That is how you get to the 25x-50x numbers. And I fully believe that... In fact we have about 1500 people who are sick and likely have it that can't get tested... So that jacks the numbers up even higher.
RE: Jim  
.McL. : 3/17/2020 10:39 pm : link
In comment 14840283 .McL. said:
Quote:
Assuming that their 86% number is correct. The 14% that have been detected are all cases from at least 5 days ago, probably more. Do the math, 6500 now really means 6500 days ago and that that represent only 14% at that time. You get about 46.5K infections days ago. The spread is causing doubling every 2.5 days. So it has gone through 2 to 3 doubling cycles... If only 2 that means that there are 185K cases. If 3x doubling its 370K cases. That is how you get to the 25x-50x numbers. And I fully believe that... In fact we have about 1500 people who are sick and likely have it that can't get tested... So that jacks the numbers up even higher.


The vast majority of these people are not symptomatic... YET...

Johns Hopkins also never said that the 86% currently undetected will never be detected. In fact, there is data to suggest that somewhere between 50 and 80% of them will eventually be detected.
The US is very underestimating this since beginning  
micky : 3/17/2020 10:46 pm : link
May be the demise of this country and civilization because not taken seriously enough from start
I don't disagree that we, as a nation, underestimated  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 10:52 pm : link
this @ the beginning, but I think these posts of millions of Americans dying is a bit over the top. Yeah, these next couple of months are going to suck/be weird, but let's not go completely overboard.
RE: I don't disagree that we, as a nation, underestimated  
Matt M. : 3/17/2020 10:56 pm : link
In comment 14840299 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
this @ the beginning, but I think these posts of millions of Americans dying is a bit over the top. Yeah, these next couple of months are going to suck/be weird, but let's not go completely overboard.
How is that overboard? There are legitimate estimates that upwards of 2M Americans will die. We can hope and pray that we don't hit that mark, but right now tens upon tens of millions are expected to contract the virus and nearly all Americans will have at least been in contact with it.
RE: RE: I don't disagree that we, as a nation, underestimated  
nygiants16 : 3/17/2020 11:01 pm : link
In comment 14840301 Matt M. said:
Quote:
In comment 14840299 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


this @ the beginning, but I think these posts of millions of Americans dying is a bit over the top. Yeah, these next couple of months are going to suck/be weird, but let's not go completely overboard.

How is that overboard? There are legitimate estimates that upwards of 2M Americans will die. We can hope and pray that we don't hit that mark, but right now tens upon tens of millions are expected to contract the virus and nearly all Americans will have at least been in contact with it.


it has been here for roughly 4 months and 100 people have died and you got 2 million americans dieing? stop it
Matt M.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2020 11:09 pm : link
First of all, I hope you feel better. I saw your post earlier.

Secondly, I think the morality rates are completely out of whack. Like, for example, KD tested positive for it. If he wasn't a basketball player-completely different story-would he have been tested? Doubtful. I don't doubt that a lot of us will end up with this virus & be fine. The people I worry about are the elderly & those with compromised immune systems.

Also, this idea that this just arrived on our shores is laughable. This has been circulating in this country since probably January. I had a cold last month-cough, somewhat of a fever-but I didn't get tested. Odds are I probably didn't have it, but I suspect a lot of people with my symptoms did.

I'm trying to downplay this illness. It's serious, especially for the elderly & those with preexisting conditions. But when I see people talk about millions of Americans dying from this...well, it's a bit over the top. Hell, AcidTest had 55 million in the world dying because of this.
RE: Matt M.  
eric2425ny : 3/17/2020 11:22 pm : link
In comment 14840311 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
First of all, I hope you feel better. I saw your post earlier.

Secondly, I think the morality rates are completely out of whack. Like, for example, KD tested positive for it. If he wasn't a basketball player-completely different story-would he have been tested? Doubtful. I don't doubt that a lot of us will end up with this virus & be fine. The people I worry about are the elderly & those with compromised immune systems.

Also, this idea that this just arrived on our shores is laughable. This has been circulating in this country since probably January. I had a cold last month-cough, somewhat of a fever-but I didn't get tested. Odds are I probably didn't have it, but I suspect a lot of people with my symptoms did.

I'm trying to downplay this illness. It's serious, especially for the elderly & those with preexisting conditions. But when I see people talk about millions of Americans dying from this...well, it's a bit over the top. Hell, AcidTest had 55 million in the world dying because of this.


This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
RE: RE: Matt M.  
halfback20 : 3/17/2020 11:30 pm : link
In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
In comment 14840311 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


First of all, I hope you feel better. I saw your post earlier.

Secondly, I think the morality rates are completely out of whack. Like, for example, KD tested positive for it. If he wasn't a basketball player-completely different story-would he have been tested? Doubtful. I don't doubt that a lot of us will end up with this virus & be fine. The people I worry about are the elderly & those with compromised immune systems.

Also, this idea that this just arrived on our shores is laughable. This has been circulating in this country since probably January. I had a cold last month-cough, somewhat of a fever-but I didn't get tested. Odds are I probably didn't have it, but I suspect a lot of people with my symptoms did.

I'm trying to downplay this illness. It's serious, especially for the elderly & those with preexisting conditions. But when I see people talk about millions of Americans dying from this...well, it's a bit over the top. Hell, AcidTest had 55 million in the world dying because of this.



This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?


Saw this on Twitter. If true, a lot of people could die without taking extreme measures.

The flu doesnt overwhelm the system like this could.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Matt M.  
Chocco : 3/17/2020 11:37 pm : link
In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:
Quote:



This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?


2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.
WHO says avoid taking Ibuprofen  
widmerseyebrow : 3/17/2020 11:37 pm : link
for COVID-19
WHO Now Officially Recommends to Avoid Taking Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Symptoms - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Jim  
Jim from Katonah : 3/17/2020 11:37 pm : link
In comment 14840290 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14840283 .McL. said:


Quote:


Assuming that their 86% number is correct. The 14% that have been detected are all cases from at least 5 days ago, probably more. Do the math, 6500 now really means 6500 days ago and that that represent only 14% at that time. You get about 46.5K infections days ago. The spread is causing doubling every 2.5 days. So it has gone through 2 to 3 doubling cycles... If only 2 that means that there are 185K cases. If 3x doubling its 370K cases. That is how you get to the 25x-50x numbers. And I fully believe that... In fact we have about 1500 people who are sick and likely have it that can't get tested... So that jacks the numbers up even higher.



The vast majority of these people are not symptomatic... YET...

Johns Hopkins also never said that the 86% currently undetected will never be detected. In fact, there is data to suggest that somewhere between 50 and 80% of them will eventually be detected.


Did you see the latest info on onset and duration? Much faster from beginning to end that I thought. 5 days to difficulty breathing (for the rare few), 8 days to ventilator, 18.5 days to death, with the vast majority recovered within a week. It’s not a lay dormant for 20 days type illness.
RE: RE: RE: Matt M.  
Chocco : 3/17/2020 11:40 pm : link
In comment 14840327 Chocco said:
Quote:
In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:


Quote:





This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?



2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.

* Is a bad flu season
RE: RE: RE: RE: Matt M.  
eric2425ny : 3/17/2020 11:46 pm : link
In comment 14840333 Chocco said:
Quote:
In comment 14840327 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:


Quote:





This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?



2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.


* Is a bad flu season


I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.

My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?
RE: What is draconian social distancing? Literally locking people inside?  
Sonic Youth : 3/18/2020 1:35 am : link
In comment 14840104 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
Thats the issue, lots of words with no real definition, that I'm sure you'll use to fit your narrative later.
JFC, you've been so idiotic on all of these threads.

I hope all this shit gets archived.

If Anak got shit/looked kinda dumb for "WHAT IS TYREE DOING OUT THERE" in the Superbowl XLII game thread, then I cannot imagine how idiotic you'll look if anyone stumbles across your posts 5 years from now.

Your posts have reached the point of you just trying to convince yourself.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Matt M.  
Sonic Youth : 3/18/2020 1:42 am : link
In comment 14840336 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
In comment 14840333 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840327 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:


Quote:





This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?



2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.


* Is a bad flu season



I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.

My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?

Learn exponents. Or realize that this infection is rising 33% every few days.

Extrapolate that.

I swear, BBI is the only place where people are still trying to convince themselves this isn't an issue.


BTW, take that extrapolation, divide it by the number of patients who need ventilators due to illness, and compare it to existing ventilators in this country.

Oh also, imagine you or a family member gets sick due to a non covid related issue, and cannot even get into a hospital.

It's unfathomable people are still at the "why is this a big deal?" phase.

Stop blaming CNN or the media or whatever. That's bullshit garbage. China gives no fucks about western media narratives, they're an authoritarian, despotic government complete with internment camps, and they locked their own cities down and committed hari kari when it comes to their economy just to stop the spread.

Look up the growth over the last 3 months and extrapolate them, logarithimically, over the next 6. Then juxtapose that with healthcare availability/
How about we all just take this pretty seriously  
Mike from SI : 3/18/2020 4:11 am : link
and hope in retrospect that we overreacted? What's the downside to that?
RE: RE: RE: Jim  
Allen in CNJ : 3/18/2020 5:25 am : link
In comment 14840330 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:




Did you see the latest info on onset and duration? Much faster from beginning to end that I thought. 5 days to difficulty breathing (for the rare few), 8 days to ventilator, 18.5 days to death, with the vast majority recovered within a week. It’s not a lay dormant for 20 days type illness.


One of the people that were on the cruise ship mentioned this. An older guy, maybe 70, was interviewed about 2 weeks ago. He said he was fine one moment, then 20 minutes later he had a 103 temp and was in isolation. Docs pumped him up with fluids; gatorade, water, etc. and just let it run it's course and he recovered fairly quickly with nothing but a lingering cough as a residual side effect.
How are we going to quarantine a select group  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 7:39 am : link
when we don’t even know who’s contracted it? People showing symptoms aren’t the only people we should all stay away from.

It’s been weeks and some still don’t get it. Mind boggling.
Clearwater beaches were packed  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 7:44 am : link
Again yesterday. UFB...
RE: RE: What is draconian social distancing? Literally locking people inside?  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 8:53 am : link
In comment 14840360 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
In comment 14840104 Zeke's Alibi said:


Quote:


Thats the issue, lots of words with no real definition, that I'm sure you'll use to fit your narrative later.

JFC, you've been so idiotic on all of these threads.

I hope all this shit gets archived.

If Anak got shit/looked kinda dumb for "WHAT IS TYREE DOING OUT THERE" in the Superbowl XLII game thread, then I cannot imagine how idiotic you'll look if anyone stumbles across your posts 5 years from now.

Your posts have reached the point of you just trying to convince yourself.


How was this stupid? I wanted a clear definition of what he meant. And he clarified that he meant, yes, locking people inside, just like China.

I wanted to make sure he didn't mean what is going on now, which is heavy awareness.

And convince myself of what? I think its going to bad in a couple major cities before awareness was widespread, but outside of that, now that awareness is widespread, we will drastically reduce how fast this was moving.

Looking at various places on the internet there seems to be a massive disconnect because the US is a giant place and some places have a much larger problem than others. Everyone is looking at what is going around them locally and making that the reality of what is going on everywhere in America.
Why is this BBI thread and others in the past  
Chris684 : 3/18/2020 9:00 am : link
far more dark and gloomy than what you can find pretty much anywhere else?

I say that as a father of 2 children who is working from home and has been following every measure of quarantine for the week to 10 days.

This thread is the only place I'm seeing death toll in the millions.

I'm just wondering why that is? Not sarcastic.
RE: How are we going to quarantine a select group  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 9:02 am : link
In comment 14840407 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
when we don’t even know who’s contracted it? People showing symptoms aren’t the only people we should all stay away from.

It’s been weeks and some still don’t get it. Mind boggling.

I've heard others suggest this too (including my 17-year olds' who are really struggling with this) it's sort of the herd immunity approach.

The theory is not to quarantine the infected, but quarantine the at-risk (elderly people and people with compromised immune systems).

If I understand the post correctly and the poster means the same thing.

In this case you are quarantining a small subset of the population and the wheels of commerce keep churning, and others go about their daily lives pretty much unfettered and the virus runs its course.

I think this was the UK approach before they realized even infected "healthy/non-at-risk" people at the expected volumes would completely overwhelm their healthcare system and possibly lead to deaths of people who may otherwise survive with treatment.
Fauci said on Meet the Press on Sunday  
Oscar : 3/18/2020 9:05 am : link
That under a worst case scenario we’ll see 200,000-1.7mm dead. That’s the CDC’s estimate.
RE: Clearwater beaches were packed  
bw in dc : 3/18/2020 9:12 am : link
In comment 14840411 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Again yesterday. UFB...


It’s like they were/are on a different planet. Warm weather, I think, instinctively gives people this false sense of safety...
RE: RE: Clearwater beaches were packed  
HomerJones45 : 3/18/2020 9:14 am : link
In comment 14840517 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14840411 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


Again yesterday. UFB...



It’s like they were/are on a different planet. Warm weather, I think, instinctively gives people this false sense of safety...
Outside in the fresh sea air in warmth and sunshine. Who could possibly think that was healthy.
Chris684  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 9:15 am : link
Because this is BBI & all of us, in our infinite wisdom, have become infectious disease doctors in the last two weeks.

You have people-reputable posters-saying 55-65 million people are going to die from this. Like, WTF?
RE: Fauci said on Meet the Press on Sunday  
HomerJones45 : 3/18/2020 9:15 am : link
In comment 14840502 Oscar said:
Quote:
That under a worst case scenario we’ll see 200,000-1.7mm dead. That’s the CDC’s estimate.
The old man has taken leave of his senses.
RE: Fauci said on Meet the Press on Sunday  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 9:15 am : link
In comment 14840502 Oscar said:
Quote:
That under a worst case scenario we’ll see 200,000-1.7mm dead. That’s the CDC’s estimate.


if the us did absolutely nothing that would happen..

right now we are at 100 dead and this has been here for at least 3 months, i am not saying it wont spikr up but if it doesnt in a week or 2 is it safe to say it might not?
Although the Imperial College London  
Oscar : 3/18/2020 9:17 am : link
Has done their own projection which is approximately 4 million dead in the United States if no precautions are taken. 2.2 million from the virus, the remainder would be people who have a severe enough case to require a ventilator. Under circumstances where they can get a ventilator 50% of those people would be expected to live, but if the medical system is overwhelmed and they can’t get access to ventilators nearly 100% of that group would die as well.

Even if pretty serious restrictions are put in place around social distancing, we are testing a lot, etc they expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.

The only scenario where they limit the deaths dramatically is under very serious quarantine, max testing, everything shut down but even then it will be a severe change to our lives. Estimate this full quarantine going until July, after which we could start to partially return to normal life for brief periods followed by a return to the restrictions.

This thread outlines it better than I can. Bottom line it’s really bad and we should take it seriously and it’s going to have long term ramifications.
Link to the paper and a summary on Twitter - ( New Window )
anyone see the pictures of airports?  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 9:18 am : link
People are packed back-to-back, belly-to-belly in terminals..........it's like the closing scene of Planet of the Apes were you see the virus spread world wide.

I can't believe people are blaming the news. The news is giving us valuable information, from the experts/scientists themsevlves.

It's not the common cold, it's not the flu.
Bw in dc.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 9:19 am : link
Well, they're idiots. And looking @ the pictures, it seemed like a lot of 'em were college kids. I can ensure you that I once was a college kid/incredibly stupid, but are they seriously this ignorant? JFC. I'm at work until Friday & am actively avoiding coming within like 5 feet of people. Yet these kids are posing for selfies, splashing it up...

Total disconnect. And where are their parents telling them to GTFO & go somewhere else?
Oscar...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 9:21 am : link
'what happens if the US does absolutely nothing'...

That's a pretty big caveat. WE ARE DOING THINGS, outside the idiots in Clearwater, FL.
RE: Oscar...  
HomerJones45 : 3/18/2020 9:25 am : link
In comment 14840538 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
'what happens if the US does absolutely nothing'...

That's a pretty big caveat. WE ARE DOING THINGS, outside the idiots in Clearwater, FL.
Yes, they are dying like flies in Clearwater- not
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Matt M.  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 9:25 am : link
In comment 14840361 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
In comment 14840336 eric2425ny said:


Quote:


In comment 14840333 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840327 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:


Quote:





This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?



2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.


* Is a bad flu season



I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.

My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?


Learn exponents. Or realize that this infection is rising 33% every few days.

Extrapolate that.

I swear, BBI is the only place where people are still trying to convince themselves this isn't an issue.


BTW, take that extrapolation, divide it by the number of patients who need ventilators due to illness, and compare it to existing ventilators in this country.

Oh also, imagine you or a family member gets sick due to a non covid related issue, and cannot even get into a hospital.

It's unfathomable people are still at the "why is this a big deal?" phase.

Stop blaming CNN or the media or whatever. That's bullshit garbage. China gives no fucks about western media narratives, they're an authoritarian, despotic government complete with internment camps, and they locked their own cities down and committed hari kari when it comes to their economy just to stop the spread.

Look up the growth over the last 3 months and extrapolate them, logarithimically, over the next 6. Then juxtapose that with healthcare availability/


Big fan of OP Sonic Youth, always enjoy your smart and acerbic posts. But I think you’re missing something on this one, which is, you are relying too heavily on epidemiological models that are based on incomplete information and which assume a symmetry between China and the US and even between different populations in the US (for example, using the grim stats of the Kirkland, Washington situation as a starting point to model out predictions for the rest of country). This is especially true regarding future death and hospitalization rates (which ultimately are the whole reason for justifying an societal/economic shutdown).

I know you think that folks who think this is a groupthink overreaction to a (short-duration, 95% mild) virus “don’t understand math” or exponential growth and are anti-science rubes, but for just a minute, play devil’s advocate with your position — look at what the models are and aren’t based on, and consider the asymmetric factors that might impact the “math.”

I’m not going to end this post with a zinger, because I don’t want to try to win an argument with you. This is just an appeal for you and the other “it’s math dummy!” folks to self-challenge some of the models and predictions. No end of post zinger, see! [Also, listen to I Love You Golden Blue off of Sonic Nurse, one of the great songs ever].

Yes, but if you read what the expectations are  
Oscar : 3/18/2020 9:25 am : link
Of an actual effective quarantine, we are not close. I live in New York, have been in the apartment except to walk the dog. There are still people out everywhere, I tried to walk down side streets only in Brooklyn and actively tried to avoid people and still probably passed 20-30 people on a short walk.

I don’t think the US is remotely capable of the kind of social distancing or quarantines the experts are advocating.
Are you defending the people in Clearwater  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 9:26 am : link
?
I wasn't out last night...  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 9:26 am : link
...I'm working from home and basically just checking in at the supermarket, but what did local pubs/bars look like last night...I'm curious.

I realize some places have curfews so that limited things surely. But were some places packed before that?
6 degrees of Kevin Bacon  
emcca005 : 3/18/2020 9:27 am : link
This is what it feels like, we are trying to figure out who we may have come in contact with that has a connection to someone who may have tested positive.
I found out yesterday that someone that lives with one of my students was taken to the ER showing all symptoms (not a positive test yet). This student came to school every day last week and has also been tested and awaiting results. If that test comes back negative then it's like a bullet dodged. If it comes back positive then who knows how many people are going into quarantine or awaiting tests. Right now we were told the results of the tests are still 2 days out.
RE: Are you defending the people in Clearwater  
HomerJones45 : 3/18/2020 9:29 am : link
In comment 14840547 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
?
From you collection of Cassandras, yes.
RE: Although the Imperial College London  
Chris684 : 3/18/2020 9:29 am : link
In comment 14840528 Oscar said:
Quote:
Has done their own projection which is approximately 4 million dead in the United States if no precautions are taken. 2.2 million from the virus, the remainder would be people who have a severe enough case to require a ventilator. Under circumstances where they can get a ventilator 50% of those people would be expected to live, but if the medical system is overwhelmed and they can’t get access to ventilators nearly 100% of that group would die as well.

Even if pretty serious restrictions are put in place around social distancing, we are testing a lot, etc they expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.

The only scenario where they limit the deaths dramatically is under very serious quarantine, max testing, everything shut down but even then it will be a severe change to our lives. Estimate this full quarantine going until July, after which we could start to partially return to normal life for brief periods followed by a return to the restrictions.

This thread outlines it better than I can. Bottom line it’s really bad and we should take it seriously and it’s going to have long term ramifications. Link to the paper and a summary on Twitter - ( New Window )


Who is Jeremy C. Young? who you've linked here?

What makes him credible? He is tweeting about deaths in numbers of 15 Holocausts in some of his tweets.
My parents have a house in jupiter  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 9:30 am : link
my mom is down there right now, she was by thr pool, secrer service walked in, trumps grand kids walked in..
RE: Although the Imperial College London  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 9:32 am : link
In comment 14840528 Oscar said:
Quote:
Has done their own projection which is approximately 4 million dead in the United States if no precautions are taken. 2.2 million from the virus, the remainder would be people who have a severe enough case to require a ventilator. Under circumstances where they can get a ventilator 50% of those people would be expected to live, but if the medical system is overwhelmed and they can’t get access to ventilators nearly 100% of that group would die as well.

Even if pretty serious restrictions are put in place around social distancing, we are testing a lot, etc they expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.

The only scenario where they limit the deaths dramatically is under very serious quarantine, max testing, everything shut down but even then it will be a severe change to our lives. Estimate this full quarantine going until July, after which we could start to partially return to normal life for brief periods followed by a return to the restrictions.

This thread outlines it better than I can. Bottom line it’s really bad and we should take it seriously and it’s going to have long term ramifications. Link to the paper and a summary on Twitter - ( New Window )


Oscar, did you read that report closely? See anything missing? See any potential flaws? It’s a good exercise in general with large scale models that seek to apply symmetry to asymmetric situations.
He’s summarizing the paper that’s in the first tweet  
Oscar : 3/18/2020 9:33 am : link
From Imperial College London, you can read that if you prefer, it’s not his personal take on this.
RE: Yes, but if you read what the expectations are  
mdc1 : 3/18/2020 9:36 am : link
In comment 14840545 Oscar said:
Quote:
Of an actual effective quarantine, we are not close. I live in New York, have been in the apartment except to walk the dog. There are still people out everywhere, I tried to walk down side streets only in Brooklyn and actively tried to avoid people and still probably passed 20-30 people on a short walk.

I don’t think the US is remotely capable of the kind of social distancing or quarantines the experts are advocating.


Even if you make contact with someone that has been exposed to Covid-19 does not imply that you will bump forward as that individual will have to be in contagious state. That is why this is difficult, but it is kind of like the abstinence idea, avoid, don't do, stay away. Less options to intersect. I am still curious about the low death counts so far....
RE: My parents have a house in jupiter  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 9:37 am : link
In comment 14840556 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
my mom is down there right now, she was by thr pool, secrer service walked in, trumps grand kids walked in..


My extended family has lived in Jupiter the past 30 years. I’ve seen more famous people there than in the rest of the world combined. I remember going to the uncrowded driving range at their club (Jonathan’s Landing) ... and I swear Phil Simms and Bill Parcells were there. Later that same trip, I’m sitting at the community pool and Clarence Thomas walked in. I’ve never seen Tiger though ....
My question is how long can you keep people  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 9:39 am : link
in their homes, social distancing if this doesnt spike in a week or 2..

if we are at 150 deaths next week are people going to say screw this, that is when it gets dangerous
Yeah I am not necessarily worried  
Oscar : 3/18/2020 9:40 am : link
About picking up the virus as I walk my dog. More of an observation about how many people are out and about. It seems evident that society is not taking the social distancing thing seriously enough. Also the lack of testing in this country is a complete scandal, we should be embarrassed.

RE: RE: My parents have a house in jupiter  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 9:40 am : link
In comment 14840571 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14840556 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


my mom is down there right now, she was by thr pool, secrer service walked in, trumps grand kids walked in..



My extended family has lived in Jupiter the past 30 years. I’ve seen more famous people there than in the rest of the world combined. I remember going to the uncrowded driving range at their club (Jonathan’s Landing) ... and I swear Phil Simms and Bill Parcells were there. Later that same trip, I’m sitting at the community pool and Clarence Thomas walked in. I’ve never seen Tiger though ....


a lot of golfers in jupiter, some of thr homes in my parents gated community are going for 8 million dollars they are huge
Eric...  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 9:40 am : link
...its ability to spread and the fact we don't have a vaccine I would think are the major issues w/ this.

And, if a ton of people do get sick we overload our hospitals...which has a trickle down effect for other people who need care for other reasons.
you don't need to stay in your home  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 9:41 am : link
going for a run, a walk with your dog, or doing yard work should be encouraged. I'll be doing that today. Just don't do it in a group.
Oscar.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 9:42 am : link
I disagree, at least anecdotally. I'm @ work & people are really being self conscious about staying away from each other. Washing their hands. Using Purell. I can only speak for my experience, but it seems people are taking this seriously. The weekends will be weird though...& I'm off next week with this staggering schedule we have @ work.
RE: Yeah I am not necessarily worried  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 9:42 am : link
In comment 14840574 Oscar said:
Quote:
About picking up the virus as I walk my dog. More of an observation about how many people are out and about. It seems evident that society is not taking the social distancing thing seriously enough. Also the lack of testing in this country is a complete scandal, we should be embarrassed.


i can go to my local care doctor and get tested no problem, the problem is not lack of tests, it is that it has to get sent to a lab to get tested and the labs can only fo so many tests
RE: Oscar.  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 9:43 am : link
In comment 14840580 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I disagree, at least anecdotally. I'm @ work & people are really being self conscious about staying away from each other. Washing their hands. Using Purell. I can only speak for my experience, but it seems people are taking this seriously. The weekends will be weird though...& I'm off next week with this staggering schedule we have @ work.


i went to the grocery store yesterday, it was empty, i went to a weis instead of shop rite or bjs but still
UConn  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 9:43 am : link
Agreed. My gym closed-smartly-but I'm still going for my daily 45 minute run outside. Just be smart. Don't gather with a huge group of people inside or outside. Keep proper distance. And again, I think most-key word 'most-are doing this.
I actually think Americans are doing a pretty good job overall...  
Chris684 : 3/18/2020 9:44 am : link
Entire states have implemented entire shutdowns of non-essential goods and services.

Our nationwide school systems and economy is shut down/operating from home.

Knowing that you're never going to get 100% participation when people are numbered in millions, I think there's a lot of smart people doing what they can right now under terrible circumstances.
RE: you don't need to stay in your home  
Chris684 : 3/18/2020 9:47 am : link
In comment 14840578 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
going for a run, a walk with your dog, or doing yard work should be encouraged. I'll be doing that today. Just don't do it in a group.


Can you provide the ways in which your friend in healthcare has described this being worse than reported?

Legitimately curious to hear.
I am certainly hoping for the best  
Oscar : 3/18/2020 9:50 am : link
I’m worried for people. A lot of people are going to face major financial hardship very soon, to say nothing of the risk from the virus itself.
Oscar  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 9:53 am : link
High school friend is full time bartender in San Diego. They just closed their bars the other day. He's F'ed. Here's to hoping the government does what they need to do to help these people in this time. They're going to need it.
I work at a global company that employs 20,000.  
Mr. Bungle : 3/18/2020 9:54 am : link
We were told this morning that they expect our work-from-home situation to extend to at least April 20.

Wow.
Have we determined whether it's safe to take out from restuarants?  
Grey Pilgrim : 3/18/2020 9:55 am : link
On Long Island?

TIA
RE: RE: you don't need to stay in your home  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 9:57 am : link
In comment 14840595 Chris684 said:
Quote:
In comment 14840578 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


going for a run, a walk with your dog, or doing yard work should be encouraged. I'll be doing that today. Just don't do it in a group.



Can you provide the ways in which your friend in healthcare has described this being worse than reported?

Legitimately curious to hear.


Sure. The biggest one was that Yale New Haven hospital hasn't yet had a confirmed case, but apparently that isn't true. The reason that isn't true is because the hospital/s just don't have the supplies to handle this but they need to keep everyone calm. I mentioned yesterday that his wife is a nurse in one of the major Philly hospitals and he doesn't even want her going in, they barely have PPE for her to use when tending to patients - she's high risk all day long.

My neighbor is a surgeon at Yale and I'm waiting to talk to him to see what the deal is. I texted lastnight with his wife to see how they were holding up and she said they are trying to limit exposure and amount of people in the hospital so people are doing 24 hour shifts every 3 days.

Another friend just texted me that that his mother, a 70 year old retired nurse in Stamford for 45 years has been reached out to for help and got guilted into going in yesterday. She's highly at risk, and he was pissed she went. She obviously had the choice to say no but that's where we are at right now at the hospitals.

Flame away if you want, don't really care. This shit is happening and people need to wake up and just listen to what's being told to you. Stop being morons.
RE: Have we determined whether it's safe to take out from restuarants?  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 9:59 am : link
In comment 14840623 Grey Pilgrim said:
Quote:
On Long Island?

TIA


Takeout seems fine. Our friends own a bakery and they moved to curbside pickups and deliveries (they do breakfast and lunch). You are still at risk with someone touching the bag/containers but that's probably minimal.
RE: My question is how long can you keep people  
TyreeHelmet : 3/18/2020 10:02 am : link
In comment 14840572 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
in their homes, social distancing if this doesnt spike in a week or 2..

if we are at 150 deaths next week are people going to say screw this, that is when it gets dangerous


I really worry about this as well. I think everyone will be okay with this for a short period of time. Its the extended period that has me worried and when people will say screw it and resume their lives if possible.

I think we need to just buy some time for the hospitals/government to fully prepare for the spike in patients. But that is going to take 1-2 months...
We're going to have to do social distancing for awhile  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 10:06 am : link
I suspect. And that's going to be hard for people-and I'm including myself-when spring is here. But we gotta make do for the sake of us all. As the saying goes, may you live in interesting time...
The  
AcidTest : 3/18/2020 10:06 am : link
best short term solution is to repurpose existing anti-viral drugs to fight the coronavirus. The Chinese are moving forward with Avigan, which seems incredibly promising, and has dramatically shortened how long people infected with the virus are communicable. The drug apparently has no side effects. We should look into it. An effective treatment would buy us the time we need to develop a vaccine.

Link - ( New Window )
GMEN46  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 10:10 am : link
Dude, seriously. Don't derail this thread.
The availability of drive-through testing is great  
regulator : 3/18/2020 10:11 am : link
but we are still seeing significant lags at labs actually synthesizing the test kits. In New Jersey, real-world delays are around 5-7 days (I can attest to this).

What this means is you have potentially positive patients going back home to most assuredly infect everyone in the house, and the occupants of those homes entering the community, even if practicing moderate "social distancing."

On the other hand, you have patients coming in and occupying resources who are suspected of COVID, but may not actually be infected.

Bottom line, we need to be investing resources in our capacity to PROCESS tests as well, not just in our ability to collect samples.
I think the number of people who have it will grow  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 10:13 am : link
my question is will thr number of deaths grow with it, if it doesnt, when will it?

It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..
RE: RE: Although the Imperial College London  
PatersonPlank : 3/18/2020 10:20 am : link
In comment 14840560 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14840528 Oscar said:


Quote:


Has done their own projection which is approximately 4 million dead in the United States if no precautions are taken. 2.2 million from the virus, the remainder would be people who have a severe enough case to require a ventilator. Under circumstances where they can get a ventilator 50% of those people would be expected to live, but if the medical system is overwhelmed and they can’t get access to ventilators nearly 100% of that group would die as well.

Even if pretty serious restrictions are put in place around social distancing, we are testing a lot, etc they expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.

The only scenario where they limit the deaths dramatically is under very serious quarantine, max testing, everything shut down but even then it will be a severe change to our lives. Estimate this full quarantine going until July, after which we could start to partially return to normal life for brief periods followed by a return to the restrictions.

This thread outlines it better than I can. Bottom line it’s really bad and we should take it seriously and it’s going to have long term ramifications. Link to the paper and a summary on Twitter - ( New Window )



Oscar, did you read that report closely? See anything missing? See any potential flaws? It’s a good exercise in general with large scale models that seek to apply symmetry to asymmetric situations.


Oscar, this report has been posted at least 3 times on this thread and discusses for pages. There are a lot of issues/worst case scenario's here. Please go back and read through
I’m concerned it’s going to get really bad in Florida  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 10:20 am : link
It’s labeled “Gods waiting room for a reason” and the pictures of people swimming and crowding beaches/spring breakers is not inspiring me to feel like they are taking it seriously.

Add on top of this that people went to vote yesterday (including my Grandfather, who had to vote for his friend) and this just doesn’t seem like it’s going to end well.
RE: I think the number of people who have it will grow  
mdc1 : 3/18/2020 10:22 am : link
In comment 14840676 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
my question is will thr number of deaths grow with it, if it doesnt, when will it?

It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..


That is the odd part, if this has been going on in China since the holidays with folks traveling back and forth, suspect many americans have had flu and other symptoms as well, perhaps the stealth they mention. Outside of the low death count, another interesting data point needs to be revealed. In those dashboards you see reported, recovered, dead. Is the definition of reported a tested individual with presence of the virus and sent home or to a hospital? Big difference.
GMEN46  
Canton : 3/18/2020 10:25 am : link
Step back from the ledge there buddy .
RE: I’m concerned it’s going to get really bad in Florida  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 10:26 am : link
In comment 14840691 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
It’s labeled “Gods waiting room for a reason” and the pictures of people swimming and crowding beaches/spring breakers is not inspiring me to feel like they are taking it seriously.

Add on top of this that people went to vote yesterday (including my Grandfather, who had to vote for his friend) and this just doesn’t seem like it’s going to end well.


I will say this living here, outside of the spring break kids, the old people are probably right behind them as far as giving a fuck. My buddy said he went to gym yesterday, and the yoga class looked geriatric. The psychology of it is interesting, when you have limited time left anyway, how much are you going to change your daily routine. I've heard that from many, many old people (without the limited time left part for the most part, but it is clearly implied in their thinking)
RE: RE: I think the number of people who have it will grow  
PatersonPlank : 3/18/2020 10:26 am : link
In comment 14840694 mdc1 said:
Quote:
In comment 14840676 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


my question is will thr number of deaths grow with it, if it doesnt, when will it?

It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..



That is the odd part, if this has been going on in China since the holidays with folks traveling back and forth, suspect many americans have had flu and other symptoms as well, perhaps the stealth they mention. Outside of the low death count, another interesting data point needs to be revealed. In those dashboards you see reported, recovered, dead. Is the definition of reported a tested individual with presence of the virus and sent home or to a hospital? Big difference.


My understand is reported means they have it and were sent home, unless it was really bad and they went to the hospital. As you know most cases the people are told to go home and wait it out. I suspect we will see a lot more cases of people having it (we are a much bigger country than Italy so it makes sense), and as we do the fatality rate will drop to something in line with South Korea. I think the last number I saw was .5-.7%. This is still larger than the flu, but below some of the numbers being reported around. Getting this, just like getting anything else, is not a death sentence.
RE: RE: I’m concerned it’s going to get really bad in Florida  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 10:32 am : link
In comment 14840705 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14840691 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


It’s labeled “Gods waiting room for a reason” and the pictures of people swimming and crowding beaches/spring breakers is not inspiring me to feel like they are taking it seriously.

Add on top of this that people went to vote yesterday (including my Grandfather, who had to vote for his friend) and this just doesn’t seem like it’s going to end well.



I will say this living here, outside of the spring break kids, the old people are probably right behind them as far as giving a fuck. My buddy said he went to gym yesterday, and the yoga class looked geriatric. The psychology of it is interesting, when you have limited time left anyway, how much are you going to change your daily routine. I've heard that from many, many old people (without the limited time left part for the most part, but it is clearly implied in their thinking)


the old people dont care lol, they are going to live their life, if my grandfather was still alive he would say screw you i am not staying in my house...

my grandmother goes to church every day to bake
FL...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 10:32 am : link
They're not wrong when we should just cut it off from the US of A & let it float into the Atlantic...Kidding.

But the photos from Clearwater...I just, uh, don't get it. Do they get news in Clearwater? I've never been so I don't know. In all seriousness, incredibly irresponsible behavior by those people. Until the government steps in & goes all 'YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED ON THE F'ING BEACH', people will still go.
I see the 'F it. I'm 90.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 10:33 am : link
I could end up in a box tomorrow' mindset. Not saying I agree with it, but I get it.
I went to bed last night, then woke up this morning  
Motley Two : 3/18/2020 10:34 am : link
and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).

Why is this so hard for some to understand?  
GiantEgo : 3/18/2020 10:36 am : link
80% have mild to no symptoms

15% become very ill

5% will need some form of critical care to survive

If 40 to 60 percent of 330 million people are infected, that 5% number will crush the hospital system
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 10:37 am : link
'At the heart of the order is the difference between essential and nonessential, a distinction that seemed open to interpretation.'

This ? has never been answered sufficiently.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: FL...  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 10:39 am : link
In comment 14840721 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
They're not wrong when we should just cut it off from the US of A & let it float into the Atlantic...Kidding.

But the photos from Clearwater...I just, uh, don't get it. Do they get news in Clearwater? I've never been so I don't know. In all seriousness, incredibly irresponsible behavior by those people. Until the government steps in & goes all 'YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED ON THE F'ING BEACH', people will still go.


SF...what you have here is a lot of people that came here on Friday/Saturday were already here when things started to escalate. I imagine after this week that behavior will die a ton. Could you imagine being here on spring break at 21, your here already and things haven't really reached critical mass yet, especially here.

The message is out now and I expect the crowds to die down drastically in the next wave, because the parents for the most part are the ones paying for these things I think.
RE: Why is this so hard for some to understand?  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 10:41 am : link
In comment 14840731 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
80% have mild to no symptoms

15% become very ill

5% will need some form of critical care to survive

If 40 to 60 percent of 330 million people are infected, that 5% number will crush the hospital system


The question is how fast that 5 percent get it and how long they spend in hospital. That is the variable we are trying to slow. Or at least slow enough until we can get a vaccine together hopefully.
RE: FL...  
AcidTest : 3/18/2020 10:42 am : link
In comment 14840721 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
They're not wrong when we should just cut it off from the US of A & let it float into the Atlantic...Kidding.

But the photos from Clearwater...I just, uh, don't get it. Do they get news in Clearwater? I've never been so I don't know. In all seriousness, incredibly irresponsible behavior by those people. Until the government steps in & goes all 'YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED ON THE F'ING BEACH', people will still go.


Bugs Bunny has already cut off Florida.

Congratulations on reaching 90. Here's hope you have many more great years. Best wishes.

Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: I think the number of people who have it will grow  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 10:42 am : link
In comment 14840707 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14840694 mdc1 said:


Quote:


In comment 14840676 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


my question is will thr number of deaths grow with it, if it doesnt, when will it?

It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..



That is the odd part, if this has been going on in China since the holidays with folks traveling back and forth, suspect many americans have had flu and other symptoms as well, perhaps the stealth they mention. Outside of the low death count, another interesting data point needs to be revealed. In those dashboards you see reported, recovered, dead. Is the definition of reported a tested individual with presence of the virus and sent home or to a hospital? Big difference.



My understand is reported means they have it and were sent home, unless it was really bad and they went to the hospital. As you know most cases the people are told to go home and wait it out. I suspect we will see a lot more cases of people having it (we are a much bigger country than Italy so it makes sense), and as we do the fatality rate will drop to something in line with South Korea. I think the last number I saw was .5-.7%. This is still larger than the flu, but below some of the numbers being reported around. Getting this, just like getting anything else, is not a death sentence.


95% mild, even for folks with symptoms bad enough to seek treatment. And the new clinical studies coming out of the Wuhan show it is a short-duration illness — if you are even going to have symptoms, they will manifest within 3-7 days of exposure (it’s not an incubate-for-20 days then worsen type illness). For the vast majority of folks, it’s a 5 day and done illness. I’m hoping that the doomsday people start to realize this within the next few weeks.
RE: Guys we are too late  
MetsAreBack : 3/18/2020 10:42 am : link
In comment 14840662 GMEN46 said:
Quote:
I’m not an alarmist by any means. For those saying that the numbers are low, just don’t get it. We have not had testing available to check. The numbers over the next 3-5 weeks are going to grow at an insane rate. Yesterday’s numbers jumped big time. We are now ahead of Italy at the same point they were at 10 days ago. For all of those media blammers you are just being ignorant. This is a virus it doesn’t matter if you live in the IS vs a 3rd world country it’s still going to spread. It just doesn’t stop because trump thinks it will because we are the USA. He lost his election because of this and a full investigation needs to go on as to what happened in late January when he was notified about how bad this can get. I know plenty of trump supporters who support him no matter how idiotic he is, but where they have and will drawn the line is when there families experience extreme sickness or death. Also when they lose their small businesses and have no money. Sadly it’s going to happen and sleepy joe will be our next president. Yikes


This is out of line, no value add, and will be reported.
just found out a guy at my office  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 10:45 am : link
wasn't feeling well on Friday and he went to the ER and they basically told him to fuck off.

Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.
RE: Why is this so hard for some to understand?  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 10:45 am : link
In comment 14840731 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
80% have mild to no symptoms

15% become very ill

5% will need some form of critical care to survive

If 40 to 60 percent of 330 million people are infected, that 5% number will crush the hospital system


Where did you get the 15/5 stats? Don’t read the scary headline, read the study/model — anything missing?
RE: I went to bed last night, then woke up this morning  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 10:47 am : link
In comment 14840729 Motley Two said:
Quote:
and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).


Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I think the number of people who have it will grow  
Sammo85 : 3/18/2020 10:49 am : link
In comment 14840749 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14840707 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


In comment 14840694 mdc1 said:


Quote:


In comment 14840676 nygiants16 said:


Quote:


my question is will thr number of deaths grow with it, if it doesnt, when will it?

It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..



That is the odd part, if this has been going on in China since the holidays with folks traveling back and forth, suspect many americans have had flu and other symptoms as well, perhaps the stealth they mention. Outside of the low death count, another interesting data point needs to be revealed. In those dashboards you see reported, recovered, dead. Is the definition of reported a tested individual with presence of the virus and sent home or to a hospital? Big difference.



My understand is reported means they have it and were sent home, unless it was really bad and they went to the hospital. As you know most cases the people are told to go home and wait it out. I suspect we will see a lot more cases of people having it (we are a much bigger country than Italy so it makes sense), and as we do the fatality rate will drop to something in line with South Korea. I think the last number I saw was .5-.7%. This is still larger than the flu, but below some of the numbers being reported around. Getting this, just like getting anything else, is not a death sentence.



95% mild, even for folks with symptoms bad enough to seek treatment. And the new clinical studies coming out of the Wuhan show it is a short-duration illness — if you are even going to have symptoms, they will manifest within 3-7 days of exposure (it’s not an incubate-for-20 days then worsen type illness). For the vast majority of folks, it’s a 5 day and done illness. I’m hoping that the doomsday people start to realize this within the next few weeks.


The above is largely conjecture on your part.
RE: Why is this so hard for some to understand?  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 10:49 am : link
In comment 14840731 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
80% have mild to no symptoms

15% become very ill

5% will need some form of critical care to survive

If 40 to 60 percent of 330 million people are infected, that 5% number will crush the hospital system


people are simply asking if it has been here since march and has been soreading undetected, why is there not more deaths? that is all people are saying..
RE: just found out a guy at my office  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 10:50 am : link
In comment 14840756 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
wasn't feeling well on Friday and he went to the ER and they basically told him to fuck off.

Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.


UConn, I think that's the fear. The worried well are going to flood the hospitals & all hell is going to break loose. Most people-if they get it-can recover quite well @ home. Don't just go rushing to the ER if you have a slight cough. You're doing more harm than good to those who really need to be there.

Also, God bless the nurses, doctors, & hospital personnel. They are true heroes.
Metsareback?  
GMEN46 : 3/18/2020 10:56 am : link
Your reporting me to who, Trump? Are you in third grade? Did you create your username in 1986?

What is inaccurate about what I typed? You may not like it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.
RE: RE: just found out a guy at my office  
AcidTest : 3/18/2020 10:56 am : link
In comment 14840772 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
In comment 14840756 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


wasn't feeling well on Friday and he went to the ER and they basically told him to fuck off.

Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.



UConn, I think that's the fear. The worried well are going to flood the hospitals & all hell is going to break loose. Most people-if they get it-can recover quite well @ home. Don't just go rushing to the ER if you have a slight cough. You're doing more harm than good to those who really need to be there.

Also, God bless the nurses, doctors, & hospital personnel. They are true heroes.


Quote:
Also, God bless the nurses, doctors, & hospital personnel. They are true heroes.


Amen.
RE: RE: I went to bed last night, then woke up this morning  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 11:09 am : link
In comment 14840763 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14840729 Motley Two said:


Quote:


and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).




Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.


Dude come on. This is how we got to this point to begin with.
RE: RE: I went to bed last night, then woke up this morning  
Motley Two : 3/18/2020 11:18 am : link
In comment 14840763 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14840729 Motley Two said:


Quote:


and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).




Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.



Yep, that sucks too.


RE: just found out a guy at my office  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 11:20 am : link
In comment 14840756 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
wasn't feeling well on Friday and he went to the ER and they basically told him to fuck off.

Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.


UCONN, directly from a colleague I work with:

From my brother who’s a registered nurse: “unless you are symptomatic like short of breath and temperature uncontrollable, you haven’t travel to hot zone, you haven’t come in contact with a known carrier, the ER won’t test you.”
RE: RE: just found out a guy at my office  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 11:23 am : link
In comment 14840829 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14840756 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


wasn't feeling well on Friday and he went to the ER and they basically told him to fuck off.

Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.



UCONN, directly from a colleague I work with:

From my brother who’s a registered nurse: “unless you are symptomatic like short of breath and temperature uncontrollable, you haven’t travel to hot zone, you haven’t come in contact with a known carrier, the ER won’t test you.”


This sounds like its going to further drive the numbers of seriously ill and mortality rates to sounding a lot worse then they are in reality.
RE: Metsareback?  
KDubbs : 3/18/2020 11:23 am : link
In comment 14840787 GMEN46 said:
Quote:
Your reporting me to who, Trump? Are you in third grade? Did you create your username in 1986?

What is inaccurate about what I typed? You may not like it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.


Ohhh you got him with that make fun of his handle comment! Was extra funny after asking him if HE was in third grade
RE: Guys we are too late  
KDavies : 3/18/2020 11:31 am : link
In comment 14840662 GMEN46 said:
Quote:
I’m not an alarmist by any means. For those saying that the numbers are low, just don’t get it. We have not had testing available to check. The numbers over the next 3-5 weeks are going to grow at an insane rate. Yesterday’s numbers jumped big time. We are now ahead of Italy at the same point they were at 10 days ago. For all of those media blammers you are just being ignorant. This is a virus it doesn’t matter if you live in the IS vs a 3rd world country it’s still going to spread. It just doesn’t stop because trump thinks it will because we are the USA. He lost his election because of this and a full investigation needs to go on as to what happened in late January when he was notified about how bad this can get. I know plenty of trump supporters who support him no matter how idiotic he is, but where they have and will drawn the line is when there families experience extreme sickness or death. Also when they lose their small businesses and have no money. Sadly it’s going to happen and sleepy joe will be our next president. Yikes


There are some insane people on this site...
If this stretches into summer  
fivehead : 3/18/2020 11:36 am : link
I'm afraid that I'll run out of beer while I'm grilling next to my pool. I'd hate to be quarantined without any beer.
well I will say this..  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 11:44 am : link
......my outside is going to look fab this summer. Working from home and not going out, I'm going right to yardwork at 5pm.........
Making fun of the user thread was unnecessary  
GMEN46 : 3/18/2020 11:49 am : link
I will admit to that my bad, but how people don’t think this is going to get realy bad after watching Italy and how far we are behind them is beyond me, but I hope I am wrong and I hope all the medical experts and scientists are wrong as well.
RE: well I will say this..  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 11:56 am : link
In comment 14840883 BillKo said:
Quote:
......my outside is going to look fab this summer. Working from home and not going out, I'm going right to yardwork at 5pm.........


Same, going to order a few yards of topsoil for next week, level, and begin getting after it. Also getting my front walkway done.
RE: Guys we are too late  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 3/18/2020 11:59 am : link
In comment 14840662 GMEN46 said:
Quote:
I’m not an alarmist by any means. For those saying that the numbers are low, just don’t get it. We have not had testing available to check. The numbers over the next 3-5 weeks are going to grow at an insane rate. Yesterday’s numbers jumped big time. We are now ahead of Italy at the same point they were at 10 days ago. For all of those media blammers you are just being ignorant. This is a virus it doesn’t matter if you live in the IS vs a 3rd world country it’s still going to spread. It just doesn’t stop because trump thinks it will because we are the USA. He lost his election because of this and a full investigation needs to go on as to what happened in late January when he was notified about how bad this can get. I know plenty of trump supporters who support him no matter how idiotic he is, but where they have and will drawn the line is when there families experience extreme sickness or death. Also when they lose their small businesses and have no money. Sadly it’s going to happen and sleepy joe will be our next president. Yikes

He would have stopped the virus cold by Super Thursday.
RE: Metsareback?  
montanagiant : 3/18/2020 12:00 pm : link
In comment 14840787 GMEN46 said:
Quote:
Your reporting me to who, Trump? Are you in third grade? Did you create your username in 1986?

What is inaccurate about what I typed? You may not like it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.

This is a really good thread with important info. Keep the politics out of it as specified by Eric...
Las Vegas is closing all nonessential businesses today  
widmerseyebrow : 3/18/2020 12:15 pm : link
Only grocery, medical, and some construction is allowed. Not only are casinos shuttered, but all slot machines in the state must be inactive (they are in gas stations and grocery stores as well).

Saw one armed robbery in the paper yesterday. I imagine that will only go up as most of the city is out of work. Gun stores are all completely sold out, emptier than the grocery stores.
.  
Ryan in Albany : 3/18/2020 12:26 pm : link
Birx: "We are concerned about the early reports coming out of Italy and France" that young people are becoming seriously ill with coronavirus too.
Tool has postponed all concerts through 5/5  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 12:26 pm : link
actually happy about that as I didn't want to have to make that decision myself.
RE: Tool has postponed all concerts through 5/5  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 12:32 pm : link
In comment 14840981 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
actually happy about that as I didn't want to have to make that decision myself.


Good time/apropos to listen to 7empest.
RE: RE: RE: I went to bed last night, then woke up this morning  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 12:36 pm : link
In comment 14840800 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
In comment 14840763 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


In comment 14840729 Motley Two said:


Quote:


and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).




Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.



Dude come on. This is how we got to this point to begin with.


Perspective is good.

Let’s not forget that 2009, H1N1 infected 60 million in the US, killed 12,000 in the U.S. ... and it was mostly business as usual. And that one was actually a close match to the Spanish Flu.
Some good perspective from Italy  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 12:45 pm : link
Quote:
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

After deaths from the virus reached more than 2,500, with a 150% increase in the past week, health authorities have been combing through data to provide clues to help combat the spread of the disease.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is evaluating whether to extend a nationwide lockdown beyond the beginning of April, daily La Stampa reported Wednesday. Italy has more than 31,500 confirmed cases of the illness....


Quote:
...More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease....



Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: I went to bed last night, then woke up this morning  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14840994 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14840800 BigBlueDownTheShore said:


Quote:


In comment 14840763 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


In comment 14840729 Motley Two said:


Quote:


and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).




Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.



Dude come on. This is how we got to this point to begin with.



Perspective is good.

Let’s not forget that 2009, H1N1 infected 60 million in the US, killed 12,000 in the U.S. ... and it was mostly business as usual. And that one was actually a close match to the Spanish Flu.


The difference is, it could be identified and the vaccine was rolled out not immediately but after some time...not a year and half later as we are hearing with this.

So I think you approach it as this could be worse with no vaccine expected for awhile.........

N1N1 was called the Swine flu, flu the key word. Coronavirus is worse, at least what we are hearing from the experts.
Not trying to downplay what's going on in Italy.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 12:53 pm : link
But don't they have the oldest population in Europe? And don't a lot of middle aged people with live their older relatives?
RE: Some good perspective from Italy  
schabadoo : 3/18/2020 12:56 pm : link
If you look at what they consider 'illnesses' in their stats--high blood pressure, kidney disease, diabetes, etc--it seems to include most of the adults in the US. 1 in 3 adults in the US has high blood pressure, for example.

High Blood Pressure needs to be expanded on since  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 12:56 pm : link
that percentage is the largest. 120/80 is considered normal in adults. 130/80, really not that much high is considered "High Blood Pressure". Tons of people have undiagnosed high blood pressure. Most people in this range have no every day symptoms.

So that could very well be a ton of normal people getting sick and dying.
Yes  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 12:58 pm : link
Italy has an older population and the average age of fatality is 80. average.

RE: RE: Have we determined whether it's safe to take out from restuarants?  
Grey Pilgrim : 3/18/2020 12:59 pm : link
In comment 14840633 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 14840623 Grey Pilgrim said:


Quote:


On Long Island?

TIA



Takeout seems fine. Our friends own a bakery and they moved to curbside pickups and deliveries (they do breakfast and lunch). You are still at risk with someone touching the bag/containers but that's probably minimal.

Thanks UConn!
RE: High Blood Pressure needs to be expanded on since  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 1:01 pm : link
In comment 14841029 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
that percentage is the largest. 120/80 is considered normal in adults. 130/80, really not that much high is considered "High Blood Pressure". Tons of people have undiagnosed high blood pressure. Most people in this range have no every day symptoms.

So that could very well be a ton of normal people getting sick and dying.


maybe, but also consider their age at death, and it's probably a complicating factor.
I don't think you can test  
giants#1 : 3/18/2020 1:02 pm : link
for 'blood pressure' after someone dies, so I'm assuming those categorized as having high blood pressure were previously diagnosed with it and receiving some type of treatment (meds, dietary restrictions, etc) for it.
Also remember to  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 1:03 pm : link
it spresd very rapidly becauae they were letting wuhan people come into thwir country even after the outbreak
Think the admin should stop doing pressers.  
Ryan in Albany : 3/18/2020 1:07 pm : link

CNBC Now
@CNBCnow
· 9m
BREAKING: ALL U.S. STOCKS HALTED AS S&P 500 FALLS 7%
https://cnb.cx/2QpZT1D
I think Mnuchin said unemployment  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 1:08 pm : link
could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.
sure, all valid points  
UConn4523 : 3/18/2020 1:09 pm : link
I just think its something that shouldn't be shrugged off since a lot of otherwise healthy people have high blood pressure that's really not all that high.
RE: Not trying to downplay what's going on in Italy.  
TyreeHelmet : 3/18/2020 1:10 pm : link
In comment 14841024 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
But don't they have the oldest population in Europe? And don't a lot of middle aged people with live their older relatives?


Both true. But we also have some of the unhealthiest people in the world- obese, smokers, diabetic, etc. Specifically obesity is going to be an enormous problem in treating patients here.
RE: Also remember to  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 1:11 pm : link
In comment 14841046 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
it spresd very rapidly becauae they were letting wuhan people come into thwir country even after the outbreak


They did so because they needed the immigration as they don’t have enough young people to support their economy once the older people their pass away. Their population was decreasing. As is the United States.

They took immigration from everywhere and most of them come from war stricken areas like Northern Countries in Africa.

When all this is over, they might not need the immigration any more, but I am sure they would have preferred it to happen a completely different way.
RE: I think Mnuchin said unemployment  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 1:12 pm : link
In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.


Might have been a bit of an exagerration to get out $1000 checks swifty, but I didn't exactly crunch the numbers.......
RE: I think Mnuchin said unemployment  
PatersonPlank : 3/18/2020 1:16 pm : link
In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.


If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.
RE: RE: Metsareback?  
MetsAreBack : 3/18/2020 1:22 pm : link
In comment 14840833 KDubbs said:
Quote:
In comment 14840787 GMEN46 said:


Quote:


Your reporting me to who, Trump? Are you in third grade? Did you create your username in 1986?

What is inaccurate about what I typed? You may not like it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.



Ohhh you got him with that make fun of his handle comment! Was extra funny after asking him if HE was in third grade


Thanks kdubbs... this has been a great, informative thread and id hate to see it deleted if more posts like that come up (which we all know is what happens if it gets out of control). No matter what side of the political aisle any of us may be, there is no place for his irrelevant political views right now. Adds nothing to the conversation and no one asked.
RE: RE: I think Mnuchin said unemployment  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 1:23 pm : link
In comment 14841064 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.



If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.


PP - missed it, what is the MSM doing with the 20% unemployment quote?
UPDATE from my wife’s employer  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 1:23 pm : link
One of her partners from her company, the one that went on a cruise last week, just found out someone on his cruise ship has COVID-19.

He was the most gung-ho about keeping the office open this week.

THANK GOD he never went into the office himself this week!
RE: RE: RE: I think Mnuchin said unemployment  
PatersonPlank : 3/18/2020 1:27 pm : link
In comment 14841074 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14841064 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.



If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.



PP - missed it, what is the MSM doing with the 20% unemployment quote?


For 1 full day it was headlined as "Mnuchen say unemployment to hit 20%', this was on CNN, HuffPo, and Drudge. Fearmongering. Now they at least put in fint print "if we do nothing". Which is closer to what he said. Reality is we are passing all/most of the things he wanted. Mnuchen addressed / clarified it again on CNBC this morning.
Italy reporting 475 additional deaths today  
AnnapolisMike : 3/18/2020 1:27 pm : link
bringing the total to nearly 3,000.
BBC - ( New Window )
RE: Yes  
MetsAreBack : 3/18/2020 1:28 pm : link
In comment 14841038 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Italy has an older population and the average age of fatality is 80. average.



WOW... the median age of Italy's "infected count" is 63??? That to me is a more eye-popping stat than the average fatility age. How can anyone take their "mortality rate" too seriously when the average denominator test case is in retirement years? They arent testing young people.

Again - this is very, very serious. Again, i'm all for containment and separation for the next month to two months. But that mortality rate everyone is throwing around based on Europe numbers is massively, massively exaggerated... its not remotely reflective of the general population. Not nearly enough people are being tested to give us a better sense of the risks.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I think Mnuchin said unemployment  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 1:31 pm : link
In comment 14841080 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14841074 BillKo said:


Quote:


In comment 14841064 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.



If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.



PP - missed it, what is the MSM doing with the 20% unemployment quote?



For 1 full day it was headlined as "Mnuchen say unemployment to hit 20%', this was on CNN, HuffPo, and Drudge. Fearmongering. Now they at least put in fint print "if we do nothing". Which is closer to what he said. Reality is we are passing all/most of the things he wanted. Mnuchen addressed / clarified it again on CNBC this morning.


Ehhhh, did you read the article on headline only? lol....I mean, that's a bit harsh on the MSM.

He did say that, and that's the headline. I'm sure the article itself expanded on it.
American based auto manufacturing plants  
montanagiant : 3/18/2020 1:33 pm : link
Are all closing by Thursday industry wide
RE: American based auto manufacturing plants  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 1:33 pm : link
In comment 14841098 montanagiant said:
Quote:
Are all closing by Thursday industry wide


Just saw that, ouch.
FWIW  
Thegratefulhead : 3/18/2020 1:33 pm : link
This is from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University:

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.
Folks comparing this to flu are wrong  
GiantEgo : 3/18/2020 1:44 pm : link
It is a new virus. Nobody on the planet has even partial immunity to this and it's also highly contagious. Look how fast it's spread around the entire globe.

Any comparison to seasonal flu is an exercise for fools.




Holy shit - enough already  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 1:47 pm : link
the people saying to stop comparing it to the flu have now become more annoying than the one or two people actually comparing it to the flu.
RE: RE: Yes  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 1:47 pm : link
In comment 14841085 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14841038 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Italy has an older population and the average age of fatality is 80. average.





WOW... the median age of Italy's "infected count" is 63??? That to me is a more eye-popping stat than the average fatility age. How can anyone take their "mortality rate" too seriously when the average denominator test case is in retirement years? They arent testing young people.

Again - this is very, very serious. Again, i'm all for containment and separation for the next month to two months. But that mortality rate everyone is throwing around based on Europe numbers is massively, massively exaggerated... its not remotely reflective of the general population. Not nearly enough people are being tested to give us a better sense of the risks.


But I was told that we are 100 percent heading towards Italy like numbers here. Its really why we should be looking towards South Korea for the most accurate stats like I have been saying, they have the most extensive testing program and even then the arent testing people that are asymptomatic.
I think when people say it is like the flu  
nygiants16 : 3/18/2020 1:48 pm : link
they are not talking the type of virus it is, they are talking about the death rate, i know projections are all crazy for this, but as of right now it has killed 100 people in the us. I think that is what people are saying when they say thr flu is qorse because right now statistically it is...

a week from now that might not be the case, bit for right now it is
RE: Folks comparing this to flu are wrong  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 1:49 pm : link
In comment 14841130 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
It is a new virus. Nobody on the planet has even partial immunity to this and it's also highly contagious. Look how fast it's spread around the entire globe.

Any comparison to seasonal flu is an exercise for fools.





Right and since we have no immunity to it, its the reason it is killing and hospitalizing the sick and unhealthy.
RE: sure, all valid points  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 1:52 pm : link
In comment 14841054 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
I just think its something that shouldn't be shrugged off since a lot of otherwise healthy people have high blood pressure that's really not all that high.


Just because you are otherwise healthy doesn't mean blood pressure 120/80 is healthy. That is an unhealthy individual, just because its normal here in America, doesn't mean its healthy.

Look around at the kids, they don't even know what fat is anymore, because a lot of these kids that are overweight have become the norm.
Over 120/80.  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 1:53 pm : link
.
RE: Folks comparing this to flu are wrong  
AnnapolisMike : 3/18/2020 1:53 pm : link
In comment 14841130 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
It is a new virus. Nobody on the planet has even partial immunity to this and it's also highly contagious. Look how fast it's spread around the entire globe.

Any comparison to seasonal flu is an exercise for fools.





It is a flu we do not have immunity too. In 17/18 45,000 people in the US died of the flu. That means 167 people died per day over a 365 day period. I bet a whole lot more people are going to be getting a flu shot next year.
RE: FWIW  
Chris684 : 3/18/2020 1:56 pm : link
In comment 14841101 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
This is from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University:

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.


Digging mass graves for the American/world population right now is not exactly sexy either.

There's reason to take every precaution and every necessary step to combat this virus, but some of these posts are, if not over the top, at the very least premature.
We are just entering the Maelstrom  
Dave on the UWS : 3/18/2020 1:59 pm : link
people.,The world will look fundamentally different on the other side. World economy destroyed. Massive amounts of death. The destruction of modern societies. Here in NYC, I could see 25% of all restaurants never re-opening and people not having the money to go anyways.
Personally, I had procedures scheduled for my eyes - indefinitely cancelled. Dentist - closed, primary care MD - closed. If you don’t have Coronovirus the health care system doesn’t want to be bothered with you. The situation is bad and will get MUCH worse.
RE: We are just entering the Maelstrom  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 2:07 pm : link
In comment 14841157 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
people.,The world will look fundamentally different on the other side. World economy destroyed. Massive amounts of death. The destruction of modern societies. Here in NYC, I could see 25% of all restaurants never re-opening and people not having the money to go anyways.
Personally, I had procedures scheduled for my eyes - indefinitely cancelled. Dentist - closed, primary care MD - closed. If you don’t have Coronovirus the health care system doesn’t want to be bothered with you. The situation is bad and will get MUCH worse.


Yup. It’s going to start some social changes as well. The economic struggle is going to lead people to gravitate towards even more polarized leadership. We’ll see what happens, but history shows what happens when times get rough and people are clinging to someone to get them out of it.
RE: RE: I think Mnuchin said unemployment  
mdc1 : 3/18/2020 2:09 pm : link
In comment 14841060 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.



Might have been a bit of an exagerration to get out $1000 checks swifty, but I didn't exactly crunch the numbers.......


well it is easy for them they just let you take a 0% interest 1000 loan out on yourself. You are paying for it and your ancestors.
ok then...  
MetsAreBack : 3/18/2020 2:12 pm : link
25% of restaurants will never reopen

Global economies wrecked for years

This virus that is already deadly.. will mutate again and start killing younger people soon too

Time to turn off the Internet... fucks sake, people.
Do some people get off on  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 2:14 pm : link
Fire and brimstone posts? JFC.
I don’t think it’s hard to envision  
Oscar : 3/18/2020 2:15 pm : link
A lot of small retail businesses closing. Bars and restaurants aren’t sitting on piles of cash for the most part. In New York they’re on the hook for astronomical rents and probably repaying loans as well. A few weeks would seriously strain them, a couple months will kill them.

They’ll be replaced, certainly, but a lot of people are going to see their businesses ruined.
25% of restaurants not reopening...  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 2:18 pm : link
.....I think that's a decent projection where we are headed.

People are going to lose businesses over this.
People are going to die.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 2:21 pm : link
Restaurants won't reopen. Jobs will be lost. Not disputing any of that.

But people need to calm down. Societies ruined? A respected poster on this board said 55 to 65 million people are going to die.

Yes, this is going to be a bitch, but people need to breathe. Go for a walk.
RE: 25% of restaurants not reopening...  
MetsAreBack : 3/18/2020 2:22 pm : link
In comment 14841182 BillKo said:
Quote:
.....I think that's a decent projection where we are headed.

People are going to lose businesses over this.


Thats where fiscal stimulus must kick in (including rent freezes or breaks). And yes, we as taxpayers and a nation pay for that over time. Its also why this MUST be resolved in the next 8 weeks. We at all costs cannot allow this shutdown to persist into July.

Keep people employed and when this blows over, people will consume again....
RE: RE: 25% of restaurants not reopening...  
Oscar : 3/18/2020 2:25 pm : link
In comment 14841190 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14841182 BillKo said:


Quote:


.....I think that's a decent projection where we are headed.

People are going to lose businesses over this.



Thats where fiscal stimulus must kick in (including rent freezes or breaks). And yes, we as taxpayers and a nation pay for that over time. Its also why this MUST be resolved in the next 8 weeks. We at all costs cannot allow this shutdown to persist into July.

Keep people employed and when this blows over, people will consume again....


Do you suggest we tell the virus to settle down within 8 weeks, or else? It’s pretty clear that this will go on quite a bit longer than that.
RE: People are going to die.  
Giants in 07 : 3/18/2020 2:28 pm : link
In comment 14841189 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Restaurants won't reopen. Jobs will be lost. Not disputing any of that.

But people need to calm down. Societies ruined? A respected poster on this board said 55 to 65 million people are going to die.

Yes, this is going to be a bitch, but people need to breathe. Go for a walk.


It's the new badge of honor on social media to show just how serious you're taking this.
500 more deaths(global)  
Motley Two : 3/18/2020 2:29 pm : link
since my 10:30am post
RE: RE: RE: 25% of restaurants not reopening...  
MetsAreBack : 3/18/2020 2:32 pm : link
In comment 14841200 Oscar said:
Quote:


Do you suggest we tell the virus to settle down within 8 weeks, or else? It’s pretty clear that this will go on quite a bit longer than that.



Based on what data?
Giants in 07.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 2:35 pm : link
This is serious. But some people need to get a grip. If we listened to some people here, we might as well accept we're all going to be dead by summer.
RE: Giants in 07.  
MetsAreBack : 3/18/2020 2:44 pm : link
In comment 14841221 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
This is serious. But some people need to get a grip. If we listened to some people here, we might as well accept we're all going to be dead by summer.


And our kids will have no money to inherit from us. Even the life insurance policies wont mean anythign because they're all bankrupt. So our kids get kicked out of our homes, have no parents or grandparents... and have to sell their teeth and hair in the black market to get their meals.
RE:  
Mr. Bungle : 3/18/2020 2:49 pm : link
In comment 14841232 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
And our kids will have no money to inherit from us. Even the life insurance policies wont mean anythign because they're all bankrupt. So our kids get kicked out of our homes, have no parents or grandparents... and have to sell their teeth and hair in the black market to get their meals.


Link?
RE: Giants in 07.  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 2:50 pm : link
In comment 14841221 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
This is serious. But some people need to get a grip. If we listened to some people here, we might as well accept we're all going to be dead by summer.


I’m not saying society is going to collapse, but there are going to be a bunch of people who live paycheck to paycheck that are going to be in a ton of financial trouble at the end of this. Even with $1000 dollar checks (which is laughable).

My niece works 3 jobs has a child to take care of and she isn’t working and $1000 is not going to get her through this. There are a bunch of more people like this in our country and those people are going to want a massive change.
RE: RE:  
Motley Two : 3/18/2020 2:51 pm : link
In comment 14841236 Mr. Bungle said:
Quote:
In comment 14841232 MetsAreBack said:


Quote:


And our kids will have no money to inherit from us. Even the life insurance policies wont mean anythign because they're all bankrupt. So our kids get kicked out of our homes, have no parents or grandparents... and have to sell their teeth and hair in the black market to get their meals.



Link?


RE: Giants in 07.  
Ron Hussler : 3/18/2020 2:51 pm : link
In comment 14841221 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
This is serious. But some people need to get a grip. If we listened to some people here, we might as well accept we're all going to be dead by summer.



I agree,some people here are utterly fucking hysterical and paralyzed with fear,it passed moronic about 3 exits ago. Yes it's serious,not the end of the world.
I am not a market expert  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 2:54 pm : link
but that never stopped me from having an option. It seems like these stimuli and "market injections" are at the wrong time.

It seems akin to selling into a panic.

My father is a broker and he always tells me fundamentals are thrown out the window in a crisis and emotion rules the market.

Just common sense to me says it would make sense to wait it out, once things bottom out and the virus is stabilized THEN introduce the stimulus and inject money into the markets.

Seems like every financial announcement after the one Friday has no or little impact.

It sounds like China and South Korea (if you believe them) are returning to some level of normalcy. Wait it out if we can.
.  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 2:54 pm : link
*option* should be *opinion*
RE: RE: Giants in 07.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 2:58 pm : link
In comment 14841238 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
Quote:
In comment 14841221 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


This is serious. But some people need to get a grip. If we listened to some people here, we might as well accept we're all going to be dead by summer.



I’m not saying society is going to collapse, but there are going to be a bunch of people who live paycheck to paycheck that are going to be in a ton of financial trouble at the end of this. Even with $1000 dollar checks (which is laughable).

My niece works 3 jobs has a child to take care of and she isn’t working and $1000 is not going to get her through this. There are a bunch of more people like this in our country and those people are going to want a massive change.


BBDTS, I'm sorry about your niece. That sucks. I don't really know what to say. This is going to hurt a lot of people no doubt.
This is why $1k cant alone be the answer  
PatersonPlank : 3/18/2020 3:04 pm : link
The govt needs to give out interest free loans so businesses can stay in business, and keep people on the payroll
RE: I am not a market expert  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 3:05 pm : link
In comment 14841242 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but that never stopped me from having an option. It seems like these stimuli and "market injections" are at the wrong time.

It seems akin to selling into a panic.

My father is a broker and he always tells me fundamentals are thrown out the window in a crisis and emotion rules the market.

Just common sense to me says it would make sense to wait it out, once things bottom out and the virus is stabilized THEN introduce the stimulus and inject money into the markets.

Seems like every financial announcement after the one Friday has no or little impact.

It sounds like China and South Korea (if you believe them) are returning to some level of normalcy. Wait it out if we can.


PJ - interesting take.

I'm also a bit skeptical of this $1K or $2K stimulus. We've done this in the past to help with a recession. But in those cases, we could actually go out and spend it. Right now...we are sorta in lockdown.

And while you can spend it online (or to pay bills), as another poster said, not sure how much this amount is really going to help. Don't get me wrong, they're trying and it will always help to handout cash, but it doesn't seem a whole lot for this particular situation.
RE: RE: Giants in 07.  
PatersonPlank : 3/18/2020 3:06 pm : link
In comment 14841232 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14841221 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


This is serious. But some people need to get a grip. If we listened to some people here, we might as well accept we're all going to be dead by summer.



And our kids will have no money to inherit from us. Even the life insurance policies wont mean anythign because they're all bankrupt. So our kids get kicked out of our homes, have no parents or grandparents... and have to sell their teeth and hair in the black market to get their meals.


What is a tooth going for nowadays,
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I think Mnuchin said unemployment  
PatersonPlank : 3/18/2020 3:07 pm : link
In comment 14841093 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14841080 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


In comment 14841074 BillKo said:


Quote:


In comment 14841064 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.



If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.



PP - missed it, what is the MSM doing with the 20% unemployment quote?



For 1 full day it was headlined as "Mnuchen say unemployment to hit 20%', this was on CNN, HuffPo, and Drudge. Fearmongering. Now they at least put in fint print "if we do nothing". Which is closer to what he said. Reality is we are passing all/most of the things he wanted. Mnuchen addressed / clarified it again on CNBC this morning.



Ehhhh, did you read the article on headline only? lol....I mean, that's a bit harsh on the MSM.

He did say that, and that's the headline. I'm sure the article itself expanded on it.


Sure I did, but most people dont.it was also on banners going across the bottom of TV screens
as with all of these pandemics  
ryanmkeane : 3/18/2020 3:16 pm : link
people need to just admit it and start acting like it could take 6 months to 2 years for the markets to fully recover. And that's totally fine. But this nonsense about a trillion dollar stimulus suddenly correcting the market is hilarious.

The dow dropped to 6,929 in March of 2009, roughly half of what it was a year earlier. The stimulus package was passed and it took the markets around summer of 2012 to fully recover.

At this rate, the market could lose about 40%, or possibly more. It is going to take a long, long time for it to get back to 28,000. Probably at least a year, if not more.
This article  
YANKEE28 : 3/18/2020 3:35 pm : link
presents a timeline from the beginning of the virus.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: as with all of these pandemics  
Ron from Ninerland : 3/18/2020 3:47 pm : link
In comment 14841287 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
people need to just admit it and start acting like it could take 6 months to 2 years for the markets to fully recover. And that's totally fine. But this nonsense about a trillion dollar stimulus suddenly correcting the market is hilarious.

The dow dropped to 6,929 in March of 2009, roughly half of what it was a year earlier. The stimulus package was passed and it took the markets around summer of 2012 to fully recover.

At this rate, the market could lose about 40%, or possibly more. It is going to take a long, long time for it to get back to 28,000. Probably at least a year, if not more.
If you can guarantee me that the Dow will be back at 28,000 in a year I'd dance a jig, but its more complicated than that. This is very different than 2008. That recession, and every recession before it going back to the Great Depression were caused to some extent by uncontrolled debt. In 2008 it was the housing market. In previous recessions it was corporate debt fueled by junk bonds. In the late 70's early 80's recession it was aggravated by a shortage of a commodity, namely oil. Once debt was reorganized or written off, once some deadwood was trimmed in the market, things got back to normal.

This is completely different. Due to fear of this virus which we still don't understand, the world has been shutdown. Companies are shutting down and people are getting thrown out of work, not because they or their customers are broke, its because due to fear, justified of not commerce is shut down. If this were a normal recession, weak airlines would be bought by strong airlines, new businesses would emerge where old ones failed, and people would get new jobs and start buying again. But today, the country and the world are shutdown, we don't know for how long.
also not an expert but isn't the worry that SMB will get knocked out?  
Eric on Li : 3/18/2020 3:49 pm : link
which will have major negative consequences for any recovery after this passes since those business owners (and employees) won't have a business left to recover?

Again, not an expert, but my understanding is the stimulus is to throw a lifeline to businesses/consumers now, to simply keep them in the game, until this passes and an actually recovery can happen. Not thinking the market will bounce back immediately. It's to keep this situation from going recession --> full depression.

Logically it makes sense that if people are defaulting on RE, loans, or losing production capacity, plus mass layoffs, it makes recovery that much harder just to get back to having the capacity to recover.
RE: RE: I am not a market expert  
Motley Two : 3/18/2020 4:05 pm : link
In comment 14841262 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14841242 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


but that never stopped me from having an option. It seems like these stimuli and "market injections" are at the wrong time.

It seems akin to selling into a panic.

My father is a broker and he always tells me fundamentals are thrown out the window in a crisis and emotion rules the market.

Just common sense to me says it would make sense to wait it out, once things bottom out and the virus is stabilized THEN introduce the stimulus and inject money into the markets.

Seems like every financial announcement after the one Friday has no or little impact.

It sounds like China and South Korea (if you believe them) are returning to some level of normalcy. Wait it out if we can.



PJ - interesting take.

I'm also a bit skeptical of this $1K or $2K stimulus. We've done this in the past to help with a recession. But in those cases, we could actually go out and spend it. Right now...we are sorta in lockdown.

And while you can spend it online (or to pay bills), as another poster said, not sure how much this amount is really going to help. Don't get me wrong, they're trying and it will always help to handout cash, but it doesn't seem a whole lot for this particular situation.



I would imagine most stimulus would find a way to still be spent. Lower & a large chunk of the middle class are very good about spending, usually out of necessity.

I also wonder about looking into something similar to a 401K fund for every citizen where they are now participating in the markets (and stimulating the markets) and create a timeline/window where they can decide to withdraw earnings without penalties or where the penalties are staggered for a certain amount of time, because that money will be finding it's way back into the economy anyway.
I was reading where they  
GIANTS128 : 3/18/2020 4:25 pm : link
are looking into some sort of "mortgage holiday". I think that would be one step to quell some fears for common people.
Anyone have any good news  
DC Gmen Fan : 3/18/2020 4:34 pm : link
?
Carbon emissions are down?  
GiantsUA : 3/18/2020 4:43 pm : link
People are reconnecting with their spouse and children?
RE: Anyone have any good news  
bubba0825 : 3/18/2020 4:44 pm : link
In comment 14841455 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
?


Interesting perspective on why it hasn’t exploded like Italy yet
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Anyone have any good news  
Metnut : 3/18/2020 4:45 pm : link
In comment 14841455 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
?


There's a really promising peer reviewed study out of France showing that anti-Malarial drugs do really well against the virus.

While the numbers of cases/deaths in Italy is going up and the situation is really bad there, the rate of growth had flattened a bit, so it's worth keeping an eye on things there. If things level off there and start to decrease, we might have an idea of a (realistic hopeful) upper-bound as to how bad things can get here.
RE: RE: as with all of these pandemics  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 4:47 pm : link
In comment 14841344 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
In comment 14841287 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


people need to just admit it and start acting like it could take 6 months to 2 years for the markets to fully recover. And that's totally fine. But this nonsense about a trillion dollar stimulus suddenly correcting the market is hilarious.

The dow dropped to 6,929 in March of 2009, roughly half of what it was a year earlier. The stimulus package was passed and it took the markets around summer of 2012 to fully recover.

At this rate, the market could lose about 40%, or possibly more. It is going to take a long, long time for it to get back to 28,000. Probably at least a year, if not more.

If you can guarantee me that the Dow will be back at 28,000 in a year I'd dance a jig, but its more complicated than that. This is very different than 2008. That recession, and every recession before it going back to the Great Depression were caused to some extent by uncontrolled debt. In 2008 it was the housing market. In previous recessions it was corporate debt fueled by junk bonds. In the late 70's early 80's recession it was aggravated by a shortage of a commodity, namely oil. Once debt was reorganized or written off, once some deadwood was trimmed in the market, things got back to normal.

This is completely different. Due to fear of this virus which we still don't understand, the world has been shutdown. Companies are shutting down and people are getting thrown out of work, not because they or their customers are broke, its because due to fear, justified of not commerce is shut down. If this were a normal recession, weak airlines would be bought by strong airlines, new businesses would emerge where old ones failed, and people would get new jobs and start buying again. But today, the country and the world are shutdown, we don't know for how long.


As an example, didn’t the Airlines and Hotel businesses just get a huge tax break, that they used to purchase more of their own shares and payout large bonuses to VPs? (I might have my market terms mixed up, but the point should ring through) Big businesses used the breaks to pay the higher ups more instead of trickling it down to their employees or saving it for an emergency. I’m sure the higher ups of a airline could afford to take less money in the short term to help provide their employees with some relief.

Correct me if I’m wrong and I am not trying to make this political at all, just trying to understand what went on recently.

RE: Anyone have any good news  
montanagiant : 3/18/2020 4:59 pm : link
In comment 14841455 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
?

The Canals in Venice have cleaned up and you can actually fish in them:
RE: RE: Anyone have any good news  
montanagiant : 3/18/2020 5:00 pm : link
In comment 14841488 montanagiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14841455 DC Gmen Fan said:


Quote:


?


The Canals in Venice have cleaned up and you can actually fish in them:

See fish in them
Primary care physician closed?  
BlueLou'sBack : 3/18/2020 5:33 pm : link
Umm no, what a pack of alarmist tripe. Y PCP is over 70 and she "closed" her office too - FROM ACTUAL LIVE PATIENT CONTACT.

She remains "open" and operational via phone. After 2 10 minute chats, she prescribed me all the meds I need monthly and a couple of new tools for managing my diabetes.


So "closed" is not an accurate description.
Stock Market going all trading online  
montanagiant : 3/18/2020 5:47 pm : link
Quote:
The New York Stock Exchanged announced that it will close all trading on the floor and move to do online trading to prevent coronavirus spread, CNN reported.

The market has been tumbling down this week, and this is not a decision to close the market entirely, rather it’s a decision based on the virus and keeping it from spreading by moving traders to office work.
Good news  
Paulie Walnuts : 3/18/2020 7:07 pm : link
my golf club is open
RE: Carbon emissions are down?  
trueblueinpw : 3/18/2020 7:08 pm : link
In comment 14841465 GiantsUA said:
Quote:
People are reconnecting with their spouse and children?


The decline in emissions is amazing. I would love to know the breakdown, like how much is from aircraft and how much is from ground transportation. The point is though, if there was the will, we could curb emissions right away.
RE: Good news  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 7:13 pm : link
In comment 14841629 Paulie Walnuts said:
Quote:
my golf club is open


I’ve played at least 9 every day this week, my one happy consolation.
Stanford professor with an interesting take  
capone : 3/18/2020 7:21 pm : link
Comments appreciated ... thanks to all for this thread
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Good news  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 7:25 pm : link
In comment 14841629 Paulie Walnuts said:
Quote:
my golf club is open


Good luck getting on the course soon! With literally nothing to do and golf seemingly the only activity that isn't skirting the recommendations its probably going to be flooded.
Just to inject some optimism  
bhill410 : 3/18/2020 7:30 pm : link
I think that we have likely already had a healthy dose of this in tristate since mid January. Accordingly I think that likely means that we come out of this much sooner than rest of country. Wouldn’t shock me if we are starting to see amount of hospitalizations stabilize in 3ish weeks
When I was talking about a wartime like response.  
rocco8112 : 3/18/2020 7:30 pm : link
This is an example of what I meant. Helping fight this thing requires making equipment. Changing assembly lines to build ventilators, cars, masks, PPE and what not.

Why, because this virus sends many people to the hospital, and not just a couple of days. This threatens the medical system which is very bad.


They sent naval hospital ship to the city too.
GM to build medical stuff - ( New Window )
Good news?  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 7:32 pm : link
Just went to liquor store & the fridge in the man cave is stuffed with brews.
RE: Stanford professor with an interesting take  
rocco8112 : 3/18/2020 7:38 pm : link
In comment 14841646 capone said:
Quote:
Comments appreciated ... thanks to all for this thread Link - ( New Window )


This was a good read. The true numbers not being known is a problem. It also puts into perspective well the damage colds and such do when spread to the lower respiratory system. Maybe it is all much ado about nothing.

Thing is, can you risk it? A high amount of hospitalizations seems to be the norm. The weathering of the acute stage sounds like it could be brutal. Can the nation stand to see a period of weeks where hospitals are overrun and triage is needed to decided who dies blasted all over the media? Tell the many who will lose loved ones in a brutal fashion that attempts at social distancing were not warranted?

Sucks to not be able to get a real handle on who has it.

RE: Stanford professor with an interesting take  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 7:38 pm : link
In comment 14841646 capone said:
Quote:
Comments appreciated ... thanks to all for this thread Link - ( New Window )


I'm happy he expounds on forescene variables when making decisions without full data sets. It's very easy to scream shut everything down immediately. The do something, anything crowd. This has essentially been my reasoning during this

""One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.

In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.""

A little off topic, but is anyone a little pissed/miffed  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 7:50 pm : link
that NBA teams like the Nets & Lakers were able to get tests while most Americans can't get one? It just seems a tad wrong to me.
RE: RE: Good news  
Paulie Walnuts : 3/18/2020 7:56 pm : link
In comment 14841638 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14841629 Paulie Walnuts said:


Quote:


my golf club is open



I’ve played at least 9 every day this week, my one happy consolation.
Nice, hit em straight !! got out last night. shot a 41.. not tonight too cold. but hope for thu-fri-sat
RE: A little off topic, but is anyone a little pissed/miffed  
BillKo : 3/18/2020 7:57 pm : link
In comment 14841675 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
that NBA teams like the Nets & Lakers were able to get tests while most Americans can't get one? It just seems a tad wrong to me.


It's almost like when athletes get MRIs and other medical attention. These organizations have access.

So while, yeah, it looks bad...it's just the way it is.
Good news  
Paulie Walnuts : 3/18/2020 8:03 pm : link
1) US Researchers Deliver First COVID-19 Vaccine to Volunteers in Experimental Test Program

Scientists at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Research Institute in Seattle delivered the first rounds of a potential coronavirus vaccine to several dozen optimistic volunteers earlier this week.

43-year-old vaccine recipient Jennifer Haller, who is also a mother to two teenagers, was all smiles after she told AP reporters she was “feeling great” as she was leaving the clinic. “This is an amazing opportunity for me to do something,” she added.
10 Positive Updates on the COVID-19 Outbreaks From Around the World - ( New Window )
My Daughter Is Supposed  
Bob in Vt : 3/18/2020 8:16 pm : link
To be tested at our local hospital for Covid-19. My wife and I are now in quarantine.

I am over 60, with asthma, so I am a little nervous. Hoping my daughter's test comes back negative.
Bob, jeez.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 8:18 pm : link
Praying she's negative. And best to you & your wife. Prayers to y'all.
RE: RE: A little off topic, but is anyone a little pissed/miffed  
MM_in_NYC : 3/18/2020 8:22 pm : link
In comment 14841687 BillKo said:
Quote:
In comment 14841675 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


that NBA teams like the Nets & Lakers were able to get tests while most Americans can't get one? It just seems a tad wrong to me.



It's almost like when athletes get MRIs and other medical attention. These organizations have access.

So while, yeah, it looks bad...it's just the way it is.


you're allowed to be pissed because something is "just the way it is"

especially when it comes to your life
Reposted...  
kicker : 3/18/2020 8:31 pm : link
What is happening is decades of economic mismanagement. I'll try to summarize as best as possible.

1. Globalization is not inherently bad. It has turned bad because our economic version of bread and circuses was to create a consumer-driven economy focused on low cost products. Globalization is necessary (actually vital) to our economy, but we overextended.

2. Expect considerable changes in how we view the cost of everyday items, and how quickly we expect to receive stuff. The destruction of the global supply chain (especially its fragmentation) is going to raise shipping times and costs. The supply chain housed in China allowed for low cost, quick shipment to a variety of locales, in part because of their ability to mass produce and restore the supply chain due to any issues.

3. Jerome Powell is going to go down as the worst Fed chairmen in history. And that's notable, since we had a variety of bad ones in the '60s and '70s, and Greenspan in the late '90s.

4. The Fed has absolutely failed. We should have raised the FFR during some of the biggest (self-proclaimed) economic expansions in history. You take the hit then, to provide some ammo in the future. Unfortunately, we have completely eliminated the divorce between politicans (namely, the Executive branch) and the Fed chairman. Until that is restored, the Fed is impotent.

5. Fed liquidity is going to be useless, for the most part. Small business lending cratered in 2007, and despite multiple rounds of quantitative easing, small business lending never recovered. This is going to be yet another nail in the coffin. The only hope is that local and regional economies rally around their non-chain businesses and franchisees. What this means, however, is you can expect further erosion in national chains in the area that used to provide low cost services.

6. The fiscal stimulus ($750 or $850 billion) is not going to be enough, and will likely be focused on all the wrong areas. At this point, you need orders to preclude people or businesses from being evicted due to non-payment of rent, or utilities from shutting people off, or banks from proceeding with repossessions or foreclosures. Without these actions, the economy is going to absolutely tank. Instead, we seem to be focusing on the more "consumerist" aspect of the economy, including airlines and hotels.

7. Mnuchin's claim about 20-percent unemployment is worrisome. First, people respond to words from those in power. I know the hope is to provide a sense of urgency to businesses to forestall business as usual, but I'm pretty sure there are back channels for that, rather than national interviews. Look up the "Paradox of Thrift" if you would like to see the likely consequences from this statement. Second, that is the official unemployment rate, which does not take into account the under-employed (if you work for pay for >1 hour, you are employed) or discouraged workers.

8. The $1,000 stimulus is not going to do much, but it's more effective than previous tax breaks (early 2000's), in large part for the simple reason that this will help alleviate a few weeks of suffering for people, to provide a little bit of safety net. However, it's not enough; 76-percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. If you take a look at the living wage, 2 working adults with 2 children need (at a minimum) $1,372 per week (in Richmond, VA, which is not a terrible cost of living area) to survive. At a minimum.

9. What really needs to happen is some way to alleviate some of the evictions, foreclosures, utility shut-offs, and other activities that will happen. I'd like to think that some of the bigger banks and companies will realize this, but beyond some vague "call this customer service line if you're having trouble", it appears the larger companies are doing diddly shit.

10. Expect a large surge in homelessness. Also expect a large surge in mental health diagnoses from this. People are going to be stressed, emotionally and physically.

11. There's going to be a huge cyclical component to this. Imagine 10-20 years down the line, when this generation of young children gets into the workforce. Parents don't have the means to have someone stay at home with the children to teach them normally, so most instruction is based on the school system. We are missing several formative months for reading, writing, and basic math. That will cost us.
On News12 just now  
Nine-Tails : 3/18/2020 8:33 pm : link
There's been a huge surge in the sale of guns throughout Long Island.
Picking my daughter up tonight at the airport  
montanagiant : 3/18/2020 8:36 pm : link
Peace Corps has sent all volunteers home where they must undergo a 14-day quarantine. What this means is I also have to do the same since I will be in contact with her. Wife staying with friends

Glad she's home with us though
There was death today at Dartmouth Hitchcock from Covid  
Chip : 3/18/2020 8:41 pm : link
They have a number of employees in quarantine as well. I am beginning to think there may not be a Giant season this year.
RE: RE: RE: Good news  
Jim from Katonah : 3/18/2020 8:50 pm : link
In comment 14841686 Paulie Walnuts said:
Quote:
In comment 14841638 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


In comment 14841629 Paulie Walnuts said:


Quote:


my golf club is open



I’ve played at least 9 every day this week, my one happy consolation.

Nice, hit em straight !! got out last night. shot a 41.. not tonight too cold. but hope for thu-fri-sat


Cheers!
RE: There was death today at Dartmouth Hitchcock from Covid  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 8:51 pm : link
In comment 14841739 Chip said:
Quote:
They have a number of employees in quarantine as well. I am beginning to think there may not be a Giant season this year.


This will peak before the season. There's going to be football, just depends on how much preseason these guys are going to get.
We'll have the NFL this fall.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 8:54 pm : link
Think positively.
Two Congressmen test positive for Coronavirus  
montanagiant : 3/18/2020 9:03 pm : link
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL)
Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT)
Dr. Fauci on CNN right now for anyone interested  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/18/2020 9:04 pm : link
.
RE: Two Congressmen test positive for Coronavirus  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 9:05 pm : link
In comment 14841768 montanagiant said:
Quote:
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL)
Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT)


The virus is bipartisan!
RE: Dr. Fauci on CNN right now for anyone interested  
madhatter9382 : 3/18/2020 9:14 pm : link
In comment 14841776 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
.



Couldn’t watch, any chance for a basic summary or anything new?
kicker  
fkap : 3/18/2020 9:16 pm : link
this may also serve as a wake up call that people need a rainy day nest egg.
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.

This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.
Japan Flu Drug Shows Promise  
DC Gmen Fan : 3/18/2020 9:17 pm : link
in treating COVID-19
Link - ( New Window )
If we follow the “Italian model”  
Dave in PA : 3/18/2020 9:23 pm : link
And it seems like that’s definitely going to happen, it’s going to get much worse over the next two weeks here in the U.S.. scary shit
RE: kicker  
kicker : 3/18/2020 9:27 pm : link
In comment 14841804 fkap said:
Quote:
this may also serve as a wake up call that people need a rainy day nest egg.
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.

This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.


Well, there hasn't really been a generation that has saved effectively. Most people retiring nowadays are going to retire solely on Social Security. The boomers at least have somewhat of an excuse; them living this long was unexpected.

Even countries with high relative savings rates suffer significantly when people retire. Retirement is, largely, not an easily forecastable event.
RE: kicker  
kicker : 3/18/2020 9:29 pm : link
In comment 14841804 fkap said:
Quote:
this may also serve as a wake up call that people need a rainy day nest egg.
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.

This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.


Then I realized you also talked beyond retirement, and rainy day funds.

Agree wholeheartedly. At least Millenials are showing an ability to do this right. The biggest issue has been a lack of wage growth, but an increase in what living standards constitute.

That's been a fundamental disconnect in our economy; we are bombarded nonstop with what we could have, and have done a poor job highlighting that these standards may not be attainable.

RE: On News12 just now  
bw in dc : 3/18/2020 9:32 pm : link
In comment 14841729 Nine-Tails said:
Quote:
There's been a huge surge in the sale of guns throughout Long Island.


I live in northern Virginia. Finding ammo is like trying to find toilet paper. My friend and I went to the range today to shoot. Just to really get away from the chaos for a an hour or so...

As we were checking in, I want to say at least 30 people came by asking about ammo. And the number of people looking to purchase was more than I've ever seen...
RE: kicker  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 9:32 pm : link
In comment 14841804 fkap said:
Quote:
this may also serve as a wake up call that people need a rainy day nest egg.
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.

This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.


Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

You have got to be kidding me!

If more people my age could save money they absolutely would! It’s near impossible though. The cost of living is insane, student loans are insane, and there has been so much inflation and absolutely no wage increases.

The top of the pyramids in corporate america suck the working people dry.

Save they say. I’m lucky I can, but took way to long to get to a point where I absolutely could.

I’d like to buy a home and have children with my wife, but it’s really impossible. Try starting a family while going through 2 of the biggest recessions since the Great Depression!
RE: I am not a market expert  
02/03/2008 : 3/18/2020 9:46 pm : link
In comment 14841242 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but that never stopped me from having an option. It seems like these stimuli and "market injections" are at the wrong time.

It seems akin to selling into a panic.

My father is a broker and he always tells me fundamentals are thrown out the window in a crisis and emotion rules the market.

Just common sense to me says it would make sense to wait it out, once things bottom out and the virus is stabilized THEN introduce the stimulus and inject money into the markets.

Seems like every financial announcement after the one Friday has no or little impact.

It sounds like China and South Korea (if you believe them) are returning to some level of normalcy. Wait it out if we can.


Exactly. Stimulus will create a false bottom and it will still go further. They should wait until this bottoms. The market is looking for a bail out instead of working toward a bottom. Plus if you are trying to buy the election, just throw more money at it. So much for draining the swamp.
Given that there are various lags between the implemenation  
kicker : 3/18/2020 9:51 pm : link
of fiscal policy and it hitting the economy (can be months), waiting for a bottom means that the injection will likely be realized by consumers after the worst has hit.

It is then ineffective.

That, and of course trying to forecast or time when the "bottom" is.
RE: Given that there are various lags between the implemenation  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 9:57 pm : link
In comment 14841858 kicker said:
Quote:
of fiscal policy and it hitting the economy (can be months), waiting for a bottom means that the injection will likely be realized by consumers after the worst has hit.

It is then ineffective.

That, and of course trying to forecast or time when the "bottom" is.


kickerpa? same poster?

like I said, I'm not an expert.

What if you separate the family stimulus/checks to citizens from market injection (making capital more readily available)?

It just seems like this 1.5 trillion dollar market injection the fed announced (pre stimulus - last week) was not even noticed. It seemed like the downward market pressure was like the market was in free fall and no unnatural act was going to stop it (or is going to stop it).
The market is not the economy. They have little to no link  
kicker : 3/18/2020 10:01 pm : link
at this point. So even if the market doesn't respond, it doesn't mean that the stimulus has been ineffective.

We largely have to re-understand the purposes of monetary and fiscal policy. The Fed stimulus was an injection into a number of behind-the-scenes liquidity markets, as a way to grease the wheels to keep things from completely falling apart before the fiscal stimulus would hit (at least, that's what I think they're doing; I'm sure smarter people like Bill2 or robc or PhilinWNY could disagree).

Given that there are a lot of under-capitalized smaller regional banks, this was probably a way an attempt to put out some fires that were threatening to jump their own quarantine.

I expect it to have no impact on the economy at all, except to forestall both an exogenous recession (COVID-19), and a recession based on structural issues within the economy (which is why I think a double dip is likely). COuldn't have both hit at once.
RE: RE: Given that there are various lags between the implemenation  
02/03/2008 : 3/18/2020 10:05 pm : link
In comment 14841867 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14841858 kicker said:


Quote:


of fiscal policy and it hitting the economy (can be months), waiting for a bottom means that the injection will likely be realized by consumers after the worst has hit.

It is then ineffective.

That, and of course trying to forecast or time when the "bottom" is.



kickerpa? same poster?

like I said, I'm not an expert.

What if you separate the family stimulus/checks to citizens from market injection (making capital more readily available)?

It just seems like this 1.5 trillion dollar market injection the fed announced (pre stimulus - last week) was not even noticed. It seemed like the downward market pressure was like the market was in free fall and no unnatural act was going to stop it (or is going to stop it).


Kicker you make some great points above. Are you the same kicker from years past and come around again? I appreciate your stuff, thank you.

Agreed the government should take care of people and families first before corporations. They should have the money at this point to bail themselves out. I found it interesting that after the 2008 crisis how people started saving. Guess they forgot in the last few years. I do feel bad for hourly employees as they are the first ones to go and feel the most pain. They should be supported first with any stimulus.
RE: RE: kicker  
bigbluescot : 3/18/2020 10:07 pm : link
In comment 14841827 kicker said:
Quote:
In comment 14841804 fkap said:


Quote:


this may also serve as a wake up call that people need a rainy day nest egg.
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.

This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.



Then I realized you also talked beyond retirement, and rainy day funds.

Agree wholeheartedly. At least Millenials are showing an ability to do this right. The biggest issue has been a lack of wage growth, but an increase in what living standards constitute.

That's been a fundamental disconnect in our economy; we are bombarded nonstop with what we could have, and have done a poor job highlighting that these standards may not be attainable.


Part of the problem about saving is for over a decade the interest rates have been punitive to savers. Yes you can invest in stocks, bonds and instruments of varying degrees of liquidity, but if the shit hits the fan like just now, you're taking massive hits to liquidise your assets which is a massive disincentive.
Yes, same poster  
kicker : 3/18/2020 10:09 pm : link
...
Jerome Powell  
02/03/2008 : 3/18/2020 10:09 pm : link
While he has been bad at his job. He was clearly bullied into making those cuts. Now they maxed out the sugar rush and are crashing. This is what happens when you let certain people have too much power.

Hopefully all of this inspires real change to save future generations.
While I don't disagree that corporate bailouts  
kicker : 3/18/2020 10:13 pm : link
are both far too common and far too massive, at this point, we don't have much of a choice. The time for meaningful change was 40 years ago. Or 30. Or in 2007.

Now, we are facing a situation where the worst case scenario is Great Depression level unemployment. I don't think we get there, and I think we come out stronger, but changing the structure of the economy when we may have to quarantine in place is wrong timing.
RE: Yes, same poster  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 10:29 pm : link
In comment 14841888 kicker said:
Quote:
...


welcome back, I haven't seen you posting in a long time. Hope you are doing well.


thank you for the reply.

I don't understand the fundamentals behind the economy beyond the required college courses (like most people) but the market (whether a true reflection of the economy or even an indicator) is IMO the main political measure (along with jobs and unemployment). Plus since it's where many people's retirements are dying even if the market a trailing indicator (or completely decoupled) from the economy it's how a lot of people gauge the health of the economy IMO.

so, the extent the market rebounds before November (if at all) will have a massive impact on 11/3 - maybe even more than the underlying fundamentals because like me, most people are economy-illiterate.


RE: My Daughter Is Supposed  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 10:30 pm : link
In comment 14841705 Bob in Vt said:
Quote:
To be tested at our local hospital for Covid-19. My wife and I are now in quarantine.

I am over 60, with asthma, so I am a little nervous. Hoping my daughter's test comes back negative.


We are pretty sure my wife has it. She has been quarantined for about 14 days. Two weeks ago she came down with fever and sore throat. We went to the doctors and they said it was strep as she tested positive. But she was negative for the flu. They gave her antibiotics and she’s finished them. She was feeling back to normal around day 6/7. Then around day 9 her fever came back, light cough that she didn’t have before, and VERY bad joint pain and lethargy. We went back to the doctors (different doctors this time to get another view point) and they tested her for strep and flu again. She was negative for both. They said it’s not Corona. Gave us no other reasoning. But everything I’ve found online, she’s exhibiting the majority of the symptoms of this thing.

So we called my best friends sister who is a Physicians assistant in Raleigh at the main hospital. She said we should have my wife tested for the flu and if it comes back negative we need to go to the ER. So I told her she was tested twice already and both came back negative she said we should seriously consider the ER. She said the way they are handling things down there, is, when they don’t have the ability to test for it they are testing for the flu. If it comes back negative they are assuming the person has Corona and admitting them if their symptoms are severe.

I’ve made my wife go to bed the last few nights at 745. I’ve been teleworking and watching my 19 month old while she rests. We are waiting for a testing area to open up since none of the doctors we have seen seem to be taking this seriously. But we don’t want to go to the hospital because she’s managing just fine. It’s just a lot of discomfort. We are monitoring her closely though as we are ready to go to the ER if things change. Luckily for us we live walking distance to the hospital.

I don’t know if I had/have it. But we suspect me and my son may have had it and it passed. He had mild symptoms for several days as well as pink eye and an ear infection that they diagnosed and treated the same day we went for my wife’s strep. For about a day and a half I was getting so light headed I almost fainted a couple times. And I’ve read that the severe light headedness is a symptom in many cases. But after that I could go about my day . I didn’t have a fever or cough or anything, but something was definitely up. As of now me and my son run around the house playing like two kids that are enjoying a snow day off from school.

As I’ve stated on this thread before, I don’t think people should panic. And I don’t think people should inundate the health facilities if they can survive. And I’m happy to say that we are practicing what we preach. I’ve notified the few people I was in contact with on the days I went to work. We have covered our bases and are just hoping this is over with soon.

I haven’t wanted to share this on here since we originally were told it was just Strep and we had nothing to worry about. Plus when she came down with the first symptoms it was about a week before the shit hit the fan with the nationwide panic. On top of that she tested positive for Strep so we figured we knew what we were dealing with. So we were pretty sure that’s what we were dealing with. And I just thought based on what the doctors said we were in the clear from corona. But where we sit today with all the symptoms, my friends sisters opinion and the just the awkward timeline and unfolding of her illness, id say my wife most likely has it. I’d have to imagine me and my son would have caught it but I don’t know. The instances of light headedness I listed above was my only sickly feeling to date. We may have done enough to avoid it. I cleaned the house top and bottom and walk around the house with hand sanitizer and am not afraid to use it. My hands are so dry from all the sanitizing and washing they are cracking.

I thought I should finally share this so posters could hear a first hand account of what this thing “possibly” looks like. I will keep everyone posted on if and when we succeed in getting a test, as well as if she shakes this thing or her problems persist or worsen. We aren’t the type to panic, as we believe in the mantra of “cooler heads prevail”. And that’s how we intend to continue managing the situation.

Further info: My wife is an elementary school art teacher. I believe one teacher in the district had tested positive as of this week. Her symptoms as of now, 100.4 degree temp on average, SEVERE aches especially in her hips, extremely tired, and light cough with very very mild shortness of breath. When she tested positive for strep the school system had not shut down. Her first week off school she took sick days as needed. She’s 35, I’m 40, our son is 19 months. We are both active gym members and tend to live healthy lives. Thought these extra bits of Information may be pertinent down the line.
thanks, bradshaw44  
MM_in_NYC : 3/18/2020 10:35 pm : link
hope you and wife and fam come out ok.

lack of testing is scandalous. wtf!!
Bradshaw, you take care of you and your family brother!!  
montanagiant : 3/18/2020 10:35 pm : link
Please keep us informed as this goes forward. Best of luck to you and your family
Bradshaw  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/18/2020 10:41 pm : link
We are pulling for you and your family.
Thank you, all.  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 10:54 pm : link
I will definitely keep you guys up to speed on things. I definitely want to share as much of the experience as possible if we get a confirmation after testing. I don’t know anyone that’s had this thing personally so I have to go by what I can find online. So if we do have this thing I will share as much as I can so everyone knows what to look for and what to expect.

Thanks again.
My sister in law is dealing with the same thing  
DC Gmen Fan : 3/18/2020 10:54 pm : link
Out on the west coast, same symptoms, neg for flu. Was tested for COVID-19 a week ago and has not gotten results yet.

Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!
Bradshaw.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/18/2020 10:55 pm : link
Stay safe. Best of luck to your family.
RE: My sister in law is dealing with the same thing  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 11:01 pm : link
In comment 14841931 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
Out on the west coast, same symptoms, neg for flu. Was tested for COVID-19 a week ago and has not gotten results yet.

Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!


Thanks, DCGF. You’re out in MoCo now right? I know they have testing In our old neighborhood in Arlington now. Right off Quincy and Washington blvd. But they won’t let us go there. We have to be currently living in Arlington and have a doctors note from inside the county. We are actually considering going to my old doctor out there and seeing if she will right us a note based on my old address on Stafford St.

The drive through testing they are doing is at that white office building that faces Washington Lee High on the eastern side. If you remember the neighborhood since you moved away.
good luck bradshaw  
Eric on Li : 3/18/2020 11:01 pm : link
i've had 2 in the immediate fam get tested with no results back yet, 1 because the sig other tested positive. Nobody has symptoms worse than the flu yet, but 1 is older with underlying conditions so trying to keep them cautious and as quarantined as possible to be safe.

right now feels sort of like when the hurricane is sitting offshore and people begrudgingly prepped/took it seriously, but then think the weather channel oversold it because "nothing happened" yet. My family members who may have it are now 100% taking it less seriously than they were a few days ago before potentially getting it just bc it hasn't been that bad for them. What comes next is still uncertain bc the testing is still so slow for results and non-comprehensive, and obviously it goes without saying we all are hoping for the best, but I get the feeling those who are getting the info from the front lines are pretty certain that this is going to hit pretty hard over the next few weeks in some real hot spots.
Good luck Bradshaw  
pjcas18 : 3/18/2020 11:02 pm : link
Texas governor sets regulation to allow restaurants to deliver alcohol along with food during period of virus restrictions.

That is the kind of thing people will remember.
Thanks, SFGF  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 11:02 pm : link
. We are doing our best.
impossible to express how scandalous lack of testing is  
MM_in_NYC : 3/18/2020 11:03 pm : link
"everyone who wants a test can get one".

absolutely scandalous. we lag behind every major country.
bradshaw44  
Marty866b : 3/18/2020 11:06 pm : link
Best wishes to everyone in your family.
RE: Bob, jeez.  
AcidTest : 3/18/2020 11:06 pm : link
In comment 14841709 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Praying she's negative. And best to you & your wife. Prayers to y'all.


+2. Prayers to you and your family Bob. Best wishes for a negative test result for your daughter.
RE: Good luck Bradshaw  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 11:06 pm : link
In comment 14841940 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Texas governor sets regulation to allow restaurants to deliver alcohol along with food during period of virus restrictions.

That is the kind of thing people will remember.


Thanks, PJ. I’m in Virginia. When I was talking about Arlington to DCGF it was Arlington VA I was reflecting to. If that’s why you brought up the Texas governor.
RE: RE: My sister in law is dealing with the same thing  
DC Gmen Fan : 3/18/2020 11:07 pm : link
In comment 14841936 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
In comment 14841931 DC Gmen Fan said:


Quote:


Out on the west coast, same symptoms, neg for flu. Was tested for COVID-19 a week ago and has not gotten results yet.

Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!



Thanks, DCGF. You’re out in MoCo now right? I know they have testing In our old neighborhood in Arlington now. Right off Quincy and Washington blvd. But they won’t let us go there. We have to be currently living in Arlington and have a doctors note from inside the county. We are actually considering going to my old doctor out there and seeing if she will right us a note based on my old address on Stafford St.

The drive through testing they are doing is at that white office building that faces Washington Lee High on the eastern side. If you remember the neighborhood since you moved away.



I am in MoCo, though in PHX on a layover tonight. It's a ghost town here.

I know exactly where you're talking about in Arlington and it's beyond ridiculous you can't get tested.

When this blows over, drinks on me!
RE: bradshaw44  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 11:09 pm : link
In comment 14841948 Marty866b said:
Quote:
Best wishes to everyone in your family.


Thank you, Marty. The same to you and your family as well.
RE: Good luck Bradshaw  
PatersonPlank : 3/18/2020 11:09 pm : link
In comment 14841940 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Texas governor sets regulation to allow restaurants to deliver alcohol along with food during period of virus restrictions.

That is the kind of thing people will remember.


Gotta love Texas
RE: RE: RE: My sister in law is dealing with the same thing  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 11:11 pm : link
In comment 14841952 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
In comment 14841936 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


In comment 14841931 DC Gmen Fan said:


Quote:


Out on the west coast, same symptoms, neg for flu. Was tested for COVID-19 a week ago and has not gotten results yet.

Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!



Thanks, DCGF. You’re out in MoCo now right? I know they have testing In our old neighborhood in Arlington now. Right off Quincy and Washington blvd. But they won’t let us go there. We have to be currently living in Arlington and have a doctors note from inside the county. We are actually considering going to my old doctor out there and seeing if she will right us a note based on my old address on Stafford St.

The drive through testing they are doing is at that white office building that faces Washington Lee High on the eastern side. If you remember the neighborhood since you moved away.




I am in MoCo, though in PHX on a layover tonight. It's a ghost town here.

I know exactly where you're talking about in Arlington and it's beyond ridiculous you can't get tested.

When this blows over, drinks on me!


Thanks, man! I’ll be happy to accept!

Safe travels man. Are the airports empty or do they seem business as usual??
RE: RE: RE: RE: My sister in law is dealing with the same thing  
DC Gmen Fan : 3/18/2020 11:13 pm : link
In comment 14841959 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
In comment 14841952 DC Gmen Fan said:


Quote:


In comment 14841936 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


In comment 14841931 DC Gmen Fan said:


Quote:


Out on the west coast, same symptoms, neg for flu. Was tested for COVID-19 a week ago and has not gotten results yet.

Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!



Thanks, DCGF. You’re out in MoCo now right? I know they have testing In our old neighborhood in Arlington now. Right off Quincy and Washington blvd. But they won’t let us go there. We have to be currently living in Arlington and have a doctors note from inside the county. We are actually considering going to my old doctor out there and seeing if she will right us a note based on my old address on Stafford St.

The drive through testing they are doing is at that white office building that faces Washington Lee High on the eastern side. If you remember the neighborhood since you moved away.




I am in MoCo, though in PHX on a layover tonight. It's a ghost town here.

I know exactly where you're talking about in Arlington and it's beyond ridiculous you can't get tested.

When this blows over, drinks on me!



Thanks, man! I’ll be happy to accept!

Safe travels man. Are the airports empty or do they seem business as usual??


Deserted. As is the hotel.
Whoops!  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 11:13 pm : link
I see the end of your comment DCGF. Ghost town. Got it. Lol
RE: Thank you, all.  
AcidTest : 3/18/2020 11:14 pm : link
In comment 14841930 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
I will definitely keep you guys up to speed on things. I definitely want to share as much of the experience as possible if we get a confirmation after testing. I don’t know anyone that’s had this thing personally so I have to go by what I can find online. So if we do have this thing I will share as much as I can so everyone knows what to look for and what to expect.

Thanks again.


Best wishes and prayers for your family. I hope your wife feels better, and that she doesn't have the coronavirus.
Had to make the decision today  
Aaroninma : 3/18/2020 11:18 pm : link
To close down one of the locations of the wine shops/cafes i am the GM of. Since they shut down dining in MA, and so many local offices shutdown, our customer base has disappeared. Had to do it so our employees could get on unemployment asap.

Hoping my other locations can hang on. This is a small family run company that I have worked for for 15 years. My wife works here, and the owners are basically family to me. 2 of their adult children work for us. Not a fun time.
RE: RE: Thank you, all.  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 11:18 pm : link
In comment 14841964 AcidTest said:
Quote:
In comment 14841930 bradshaw44 said:


Quote:


I will definitely keep you guys up to speed on things. I definitely want to share as much of the experience as possible if we get a confirmation after testing. I don’t know anyone that’s had this thing personally so I have to go by what I can find online. So if we do have this thing I will share as much as I can so everyone knows what to look for and what to expect.

Thanks again.



Best wishes and prayers for your family. I hope your wife feels better, and that she doesn't have the coronavirus.


Thank you, AT. I hope she doesn’t either. But my gut isn’t leaning that way.
RE: Had to make the decision today  
bradshaw44 : 3/18/2020 11:23 pm : link
In comment 14841967 Aaroninma said:
Quote:
To close down one of the locations of the wine shops/cafes i am the GM of. Since they shut down dining in MA, and so many local offices shutdown, our customer base has disappeared. Had to do it so our employees could get on unemployment asap.

Hoping my other locations can hang on. This is a small family run company that I have worked for for 15 years. My wife works here, and the owners are basically family to me. 2 of their adult children work for us. Not a fun time.


Aaron, I’m a CPA, and have my own small side business away from my 9-5 handling a handful of clients business taxes. One of the businesses is in an equally bad spot. They are taking loans against the principles life insurance policies to try and see it through these next few months. I’ve also recommended they reach out to their vendors and see if they can get a payment holiday for the next couple of months to help navigate through these tough times. Hopefully your company has considered some of these options. Good luck to you.
Update from Sister who is resident at UPenn  
Sonic Youth : 3/18/2020 11:50 pm : link
- running out of hospital masks for workers, heavily rationed
- absolutely crushing to her to tell families that they can't see their loved ones who were already in ICU. Also told me stories of multiple ICU patients in obvious states of mental distress/delusion calling out for their family members all at the same time as she enters notes in her computer ("It was fucked up to hear one of the patients yelling for his wife saying 'Karen I'm dying where are you?!', and he isn't in here for corona" - direct quote from my sister)
- 10 patients confirmed in their hospital at this point
- 2 hospital employees also tested positive
- MASSIVE blood shortage. Blood drives have been stopped, so they are now having an employee blood drive to try and make up for some of the shortage. She said the blood shortage is a huge issue nobody is commenting on.
- Cornell is at 90% ventilators, some other hospital in the NE, I think in CT which I can't remember the name of but her friend from med school is a resident at, is at "120% ventilator usage". I believe this means old ventilators are in use.
- Speaking of which, old ventilators are being attempted to be refurbished for use
.  
threeofakind33 : 3/18/2020 11:51 pm : link
Didn’t see this posted. This seems like it could be the right type of thing approach.

I know the libertarian crowd will scream bloody murder re: cell phone tracking of citizens. And it requires scaled testing that we were way behind on, but intuitively this seems like it could work.

Regardless, more than two months of this is not economically or socially sustainable.
Twitter - ( New Window )
oh one other thing  
Sonic Youth : 3/18/2020 11:52 pm : link
there's a substantial percentage of people who would have otherwise been taking of respirators and allowed to pass away who have families that will not accept that until they can see them. my sister says that this is totally understandable, but could have a compounding effect on hospital availability.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Matt M.  
Sonic Youth : 3/18/2020 11:58 pm : link
In comment 14840544 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14840361 Sonic Youth said:


Quote:


In comment 14840336 eric2425ny said:


Quote:


In comment 14840333 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840327 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:


Quote:





This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?



2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.


* Is a bad flu season



I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.

My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?


Learn exponents. Or realize that this infection is rising 33% every few days.

Extrapolate that.

I swear, BBI is the only place where people are still trying to convince themselves this isn't an issue.


BTW, take that extrapolation, divide it by the number of patients who need ventilators due to illness, and compare it to existing ventilators in this country.

Oh also, imagine you or a family member gets sick due to a non covid related issue, and cannot even get into a hospital.

It's unfathomable people are still at the "why is this a big deal?" phase.

Stop blaming CNN or the media or whatever. That's bullshit garbage. China gives no fucks about western media narratives, they're an authoritarian, despotic government complete with internment camps, and they locked their own cities down and committed hari kari when it comes to their economy just to stop the spread.

Look up the growth over the last 3 months and extrapolate them, logarithimically, over the next 6. Then juxtapose that with healthcare availability/



Big fan of OP Sonic Youth, always enjoy your smart and acerbic posts. But I think you’re missing something on this one, which is, you are relying too heavily on epidemiological models that are based on incomplete information and which assume a symmetry between China and the US and even between different populations in the US (for example, using the grim stats of the Kirkland, Washington situation as a starting point to model out predictions for the rest of country). This is especially true regarding future death and hospitalization rates (which ultimately are the whole reason for justifying an societal/economic shutdown).

I know you think that folks who think this is a groupthink overreaction to a (short-duration, 95% mild) virus “don’t understand math” or exponential growth and are anti-science rubes, but for just a minute, play devil’s advocate with your position — look at what the models are and aren’t based on, and consider the asymmetric factors that might impact the “math.”

I’m not going to end this post with a zinger, because I don’t want to try to win an argument with you. This is just an appeal for you and the other “it’s math dummy!” folks to self-challenge some of the models and predictions. No end of post zinger, see! [Also, listen to I Love You Golden Blue off of Sonic Nurse, one of the great songs ever].
Ha thanks, most of this board hates me (I think) so nice to see someone who doesn't.

I agree that you can't assume a perfect symmetry between china and the US for a variety of reasons -- I'm mostly concerned about hospital capacity and ventiator availability though. Based off of what I'm hearing from physicians in my direct family (as well as politicians), this is going to be a massive, massive issue.

Also, Sonic Nurse is a great album. My favorite song off of it is peace attack.... such a great song. Can't imagine my life if SY didn't introduce me to alternate tunings on my guitar, lol
I don't hate Sonic Youth.  
Motley Two : 3/19/2020 12:23 am : link
I like the poster & the band...who became a much better live act in the second half of their career.
And Lee Renaldo  
Motley Two : 3/19/2020 12:26 am : link
Was the best singer
Not sure anyone's seen this but a good article w/ Fauci's boss at NIH  
Eric on Li : 3/19/2020 1:05 am : link
some good nuggets for optimism, especially the drug that's in clinical trials, and that we may be slowing the curve. Talks a little bit about the testing failures but also has some worst case numbers that seem unfathomable.

Quote:
When I asked Collins what has surprised him most about the coronavirus from his perspective as a doctor and a scientist, he told me: “The degree to which this is so rapidly transmissible. More so than SARS was. SARS was a terribly scary situation for the world 18 years ago, but it never reached the level of infections or deaths that we have for this coronavirus, because it wasn’t as transmissible. SARS was transmissible but only from people who were really very sick. This one seems to be transmissible from people who have minor illness or maybe no illness at all—which is why it has been so difficult to get control or to know when you should be imposing these stringent measures we’ve been talking about. If you wait until you’ve seen lots of affected cases, you know you’ve waited too late, because the number of people who haven’t yet turned up in the health-care system but who are already infected is probably 100 times the number of cases you know about.”

NIH Director Francis Collins speaks about the coronavirus, his faith, and an unusual friendship. - ( New Window )
Some news on the treatment trial front..  
BurberryManning : 3/19/2020 2:59 am : link
Lopinavir/Ritonavir didnt hit the mark although it was initiated late and still showed some efficacy. Gives hope that some of the combos with the treatment at an earlier perio and/or remdesivir or chloronique can nail it down
Recently viewed movie thread - Rental Edition  
Grey Pilgrim : 3/19/2020 6:50 am : link
A good read ...NYTimes
https://www.yahoo.com/news/know-going-grocery-store-191228060.html - ( New Window )
Ignore that thread title...  
Grey Pilgrim : 3/19/2020 6:51 am : link
HTH
This article makes sense  
rocco8112 : 3/19/2020 8:55 am : link
to me.

The virus is no one's fault obviously, but in early stages of the US was ready to mass test (it is still not) that initial screening could have helped stave off this massive upcoming surge that is the main crisis and given a clearer picture of exactly what is going on. That didn't happen. It did happen in South Korea and they seem to have a bottle on it. Living in NYC, I do wish something similar happened here.

In the movies the feds like the CDC are cutting edge experts who will save the day. In real life, not so much. I am not condemning the individuals, but as an institution they and the Federal Government shit the bed, big time. The cost may be super high. Even the economy may be weathering it better if there was less of a mystery of how many people have this and where breakouts are.

Many on this site have posted many informative posts regarding tests and regulations and the appropriate way to do something like this to reduce risk.

This is addressed in the article.

Quote:

There are always opportunities to learn from situations like this one,” FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, who has been on the job only three months, told Reuters. “But one thing I will stand firm on: We cannot compromise on the quality of the tests because what would be worse than no tests at all is wildly inaccurate test results.”


Makes sense, but the first test was broken and no one seemed to act to deal with that swiftly. That quote reads like classic CYA to me.

I am not versed in these fields, but when you get down to brass tacks, if South Korea could do it, why couldn't the United States. The article states SK acted in a bold manner while the slow and sclerotic Federal bureaucracy stumbled along impotent.



There is no time machine, but the US is down 28 - 0 in the first quarter of this pandemic, hopefully the country can come back. Lives are at stake.
USA and SK first case same day. SK was ready, USA shit bed - ( New Window )
Ammunition is even more scarce that toilet paper  
Chef : 3/19/2020 9:14 am : link
around these parts.
I weep for the future of America...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 9:20 am : link
...
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Ammunition is even more scarce that toilet paper  
pjcas18 : 3/19/2020 9:22 am : link
In comment 14842187 Chef said:
Quote:
around these parts.


two 50-round box per day limit at some local stores here in MA. but you can still get it.
RE: I weep for the future of America...  
Chris684 : 3/19/2020 9:23 am : link
In comment 14842197 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
... Link - ( New Window )


Not sure what I'd do with spring breakers in Florida, but for the ones who have left the country and gone to Mexico or the Bahamas or wherever...I just wouldn't let them back in. Simple as that.
RE: I weep for the future of America...  
Motley Two : 3/19/2020 9:29 am : link
In comment 14842197 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
... Link - ( New Window )



A month from now one of those clips might be followed by the Curb Your Enthusiasm music.
RE: I weep for the future of America...  
pjcas18 : 3/19/2020 9:51 am : link
In comment 14842197 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
... Link - ( New Window )


I do as well the word literally is way overused by the younger generations, but they can literally be killing people, but also at 20-23 years old I can't imagine how my asshole adolescent/young adult self would handle this situation. Honestly don't know.

I feel like I've raised my kids right, to do the right thing and be good people, but man, I have two 17-year olds (seniors in high school) home so far for one week (as well as a younger one) and it's like having little law students in here listening to them bargain with me and make their case on why they feel they should leave the house to do certain things. And they cite media reports, statistics, etc.

In the end my kids listen to me, but I can understand why the youth are struggling with this (though to be clear not condoning it at all).
RE: RE: Ammunition is even more scarce that toilet paper  
Carson53 : 3/19/2020 9:51 am : link
In comment 14842198 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14842187 Chef said:


Quote:


around these parts.



two 50-round box per day limit at some local stores here in MA. but you can still get it.
.

I got a package of 4 rolls yesterday, that's the limit.
One roll on paper towels.
Although the food shopping experience was a bit different, found mostly everything I needed.
It must be a really tough in NYS, and some other states!
RE: Jerome Powell  
mdc1 : 3/19/2020 9:52 am : link
In comment 14841889 02/03/2008 said:
Quote:
While he has been bad at his job. He was clearly bullied into making those cuts. Now they maxed out the sugar rush and are crashing. This is what happens when you let certain people have too much power.

Hopefully all of this inspires real change to save future generations.


Yes, a cartel of bankers.
...  
kicker : 3/19/2020 10:09 am : link
Wrong, but unsurprising.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 10:14 am : link
I probably would have been a little cavalier about this @ 20, 21. That said, being a anxious gent I would have done a complete 180 once I heard the word 'pandemic'. Also, my old man would have been on the phone with me telling me to stop acting like a jackass & GTFO of the beach. If I knew my kid was partying down in FL or wherever with large groups of people, you can rest assured I'd be on the phone telling them the same.
RE: ...  
LawrenceTaylor56 : 3/19/2020 10:23 am : link
In comment 14842285 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I probably would have been a little cavalier about this @ 20, 21. That said, being a anxious gent I would have done a complete 180 once I heard the word 'pandemic'. Also, my old man would have been on the phone with me telling me to stop acting like a jackass & GTFO of the beach. If I knew my kid was partying down in FL or wherever with large groups of people, you can rest assured I'd be on the phone telling them the same.


I bet you'd be at the beach with a 30 rack of Keystone Light.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 10:29 am : link
Cuomo pretty adamant that he's not going to issue a shelter in place measure.

From the Times:

“I am not going to imprison anyone in the state of New York,” Mr. Cuomo said on CNN. “I am not going to do martial law in the state of New York. That is not going to happen.”
RE: ...  
Allen in CNJ : 3/19/2020 10:51 am : link
In comment 14842316 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Cuomo pretty adamant that he's not going to issue a shelter in place measure.

From the Times:

“I am not going to imprison anyone in the state of New York,” Mr. Cuomo said on CNN. “I am not going to do martial law in the state of New York. That is not going to happen.”


Good for him. I am in no way a supporter of his, however he has done an admirable job in this situation. Kudos to him and god bless the people of NY!
Cuomo speaking - wow - everyone take note -  
GiantsUA : 3/19/2020 10:51 am : link
this is how you try to manage a crisis
RE: Cuomo speaking - wow - everyone take note -  
Sammo85 : 3/19/2020 10:55 am : link
In comment 14842357 GiantsUA said:
Quote:
this is how you try to manage a crisis


He's definitely running for President in 4 years.
Necessity is the  
pjcas18 : 3/19/2020 10:57 am : link
mother of invention.

Linked below, online toilet paper "in stock" status tracker

I used this yesterday to find some on Amazon. I did not hoard toilet paper like others.


Link - ( New Window )
He has had his eye on that office for ever.  
GiantsUA : 3/19/2020 10:58 am : link
Does not make a move without thinking of any/all consequences effecting his rep
true story  
pjcas18 : 3/19/2020 11:00 am : link
From afar, Cuomo looks like he's handling this well.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 11:07 am : link
Giving the straight facts, telling people it's a serious health emergency, but not to panic.
Australian  
AcidTest : 3/19/2020 11:11 am : link
doctors are using an older HIV drug and chloroquine, a drug used to treat malaria. Their patients have recovered completely. The drugs are "very well tolerated," and patients have "no unexpected side effects."

Repurposing existing drugs is the best chance to find an effective treatment until a vaccine is available.

Link - ( New Window )
I work in manufacturing  
Harvest Blend : 3/19/2020 11:11 am : link
just got sent home (after some calibration work tomorrow) until 4/6.

Who's this woman in my house?
RE: He has had his eye on that office for ever.  
schabadoo : 3/19/2020 11:12 am : link
In comment 14842373 GiantsUA said:
Quote:
Does not make a move without thinking of any/all consequences effecting his rep


As he seems to be one of the only adults in the room, you must be happy it's working for him.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Matt M.  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 11:13 am : link
In comment 14841994 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
In comment 14840544 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


In comment 14840361 Sonic Youth said:


Quote:


In comment 14840336 eric2425ny said:


Quote:


In comment 14840333 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840327 Chocco said:


Quote:


In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:


Quote:





This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?



2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.


* Is a bad flu season



I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.

My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?


Learn exponents. Or realize that this infection is rising 33% every few days.

Extrapolate that.

I swear, BBI is the only place where people are still trying to convince themselves this isn't an issue.


BTW, take that extrapolation, divide it by the number of patients who need ventilators due to illness, and compare it to existing ventilators in this country.

Oh also, imagine you or a family member gets sick due to a non covid related issue, and cannot even get into a hospital.

It's unfathomable people are still at the "why is this a big deal?" phase.

Stop blaming CNN or the media or whatever. That's bullshit garbage. China gives no fucks about western media narratives, they're an authoritarian, despotic government complete with internment camps, and they locked their own cities down and committed hari kari when it comes to their economy just to stop the spread.

Look up the growth over the last 3 months and extrapolate them, logarithimically, over the next 6. Then juxtapose that with healthcare availability/



Big fan of OP Sonic Youth, always enjoy your smart and acerbic posts. But I think you’re missing something on this one, which is, you are relying too heavily on epidemiological models that are based on incomplete information and which assume a symmetry between China and the US and even between different populations in the US (for example, using the grim stats of the Kirkland, Washington situation as a starting point to model out predictions for the rest of country). This is especially true regarding future death and hospitalization rates (which ultimately are the whole reason for justifying an societal/economic shutdown).

I know you think that folks who think this is a groupthink overreaction to a (short-duration, 95% mild) virus “don’t understand math” or exponential growth and are anti-science rubes, but for just a minute, play devil’s advocate with your position — look at what the models are and aren’t based on, and consider the asymmetric factors that might impact the “math.”

I’m not going to end this post with a zinger, because I don’t want to try to win an argument with you. This is just an appeal for you and the other “it’s math dummy!” folks to self-challenge some of the models and predictions. No end of post zinger, see! [Also, listen to I Love You Golden Blue off of Sonic Nurse, one of the great songs ever].


Ha thanks, most of this board hates me (I think) so nice to see someone who doesn't.

I agree that you can't assume a perfect symmetry between china and the US for a variety of reasons -- I'm mostly concerned about hospital capacity and ventiator availability though. Based off of what I'm hearing from physicians in my direct family (as well as politicians), this is going to be a massive, massive issue.

Also, Sonic Nurse is a great album. My favorite song off of it is peace attack.... such a great song. Can't imagine my life if SY didn't introduce me to alternate tunings on my guitar, lol


Keep the great posts coming Sonic Youth. Agreed this should be taken
seriously. My only plea to everyone out there is try to dig into the reports and data that form the basis of the scary headlines. Dig in and see for yourself whether the data is always as definitive as the headlines scream. And question the antecdotal reports of hospital chaos as well. Follow the protocols and protect the vulnerable — but it doesn’t ever hurt to be an informed and free thinking citizen.

Also, the Iceland situation is very interesting. It’s a small enough country that they are planning to test a big % of the populace. Not trying to be argumentative and cause a riot here ... but the hospitalization rate (and even the noticeable symptoms rate) are incredibly low so far. Some good data to be gained.
Went to weis this morning  
nygiants16 : 3/19/2020 11:14 am : link
finally got some chicken, seems like they are starting to catch up with the demand, starting to fill the shelves and the place was not overrun with stuff..

Was able to get some stuff for my in laws who are scared to death to even leave the bouse
I have a family member who works closely with the Gov office.  
GiantsUA : 3/19/2020 11:15 am : link
I am not a fan, but he is doing very well (IMO) trying to manage a herculean task.
does anyone else think Cuomo sounds exactly like Al Pacino?  
Eric on Li : 3/19/2020 11:19 am : link
or just me?
RE: Cuomo speaking - wow - everyone take note -  
Danny Kanell : 3/19/2020 11:20 am : link
In comment 14842357 GiantsUA said:
Quote:
this is how you try to manage a crisis


Couldn't agree more.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Matt M.  
PatersonPlank : 3/19/2020 11:21 am : link

Also, the Iceland situation is very interesting. It’s a small enough country that they are planning to test a big % of the populace. Not trying to be argumentative and cause a riot here ... but the hospitalization rate (and even the noticeable symptoms rate) are incredibly low so far. Some good data to be gained. [/quote]

I just read an article that had good news. The Wuhan death rate seems to have dropped to ~.7%. Earlier they had said 4%, but with more testing that has now dropped to 1.4%. They add in their estimates of the number of untested people who have it, and thats how they get to .7%. I believe this is inline with South Korea.

Still worse than the .1% for the flu obviously, but good news that numbers seem to be converging on a better/lower rate.
The 2 things that make me nervous are:  
DC Gmen Fan : 3/19/2020 11:27 am : link
- the increasing reports of those in their 30s and 40s with no known co-morbidities ending up on ventilators

- the prospect of not being able to receive medical care for something serious (heart attack, fall, stroke, broken bone, allergic reaction, etc etc)

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Matt M.  
Sammo85 : 3/19/2020 11:38 am : link
In comment 14842420 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:

Also, the Iceland situation is very interesting. It’s a small enough country that they are planning to test a big % of the populace. Not trying to be argumentative and cause a riot here ... but the hospitalization rate (and even the noticeable symptoms rate) are incredibly low so far. Some good data to be gained.


I just read an article that had good news. The Wuhan death rate seems to have dropped to ~.7%. Earlier they had said 4%, but with more testing that has now dropped to 1.4%. They add in their estimates of the number of untested people who have it, and thats how they get to .7%. I believe this is inline with South Korea.

Still worse than the .1% for the flu obviously, but good news that numbers seem to be converging on a better/lower rate. [/quote]

Iceland is not much value in these cases (may as well call it Isolated-Land). The mortality rate is something that has to be looked at with respect to the groupings (it won't be something we have a good analysis on until after the crisis passes really). But trends are positive that it's not turning into a mutated killer across all age groups (that's still a legit fear some virologists have - and keep saying we have to be proactive through this year - as some flu or coronaviruses have a tendency to as they say slip and flip around from the trend many expect with increasing exposure and immunity or treatment).

I feel bad for folks taking an economic hit, but for once, I think proactive measures and more stringent protections are being done properly. A little bit of confidence helps breed some hope we'll turn the corner, get some more knowledge on this thing, and win the fight and help as many people as possible and recover socially, economically and invest in our healthcare and socioeconomic system to be prepared for the next test or crisis whether it be natural or manmade.
Hackensack General  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 11:39 am : link
An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.



RE: Hackensack General  
nygiants16 : 3/19/2020 11:43 am : link
In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.




yup it is why the drive up testing and hospitals setting up outside tents will help immensely..

Plus it being warm outside allows them to work outside comfortablly
RE: The 2 things that make me nervous are:  
KDubbs : 3/19/2020 11:43 am : link
In comment 14842428 DC Gmen Fan said:
Quote:
- the increasing reports of those in their 30s and 40s with no known co-morbidities ending up on ventilators

- the prospect of not being able to receive medical care for something serious (heart attack, fall, stroke, broken bone, allergic reaction, etc etc)


I wouldnt be surprised if that report was more a scare tactic to get these idiots on the beaches and other places to just get the fuck home
RE: Hackensack General  
schabadoo : 3/19/2020 11:47 am : link
In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.




I'm not sure if you're referencing a story about last week, but I don't see anything else close to your description. Don't see any mention of 'public rhetoric', either.

'Mass anxiety is causing problems at hospitals by driving unnecessary traffic to emergency rooms. Hackensack University Medical Center said it was managing the increase in hospitalizations but has been deluged with people with minimal or no symptoms seeking tests at the emergency room. It was diverting those “worried well'' people, up to seven visits an hour on Thursday night, into a separate biocontainment unit to be evaluated, instructed on how to reduce infections and sent home.'
RE: Hackensack General  
GiantEgo : 3/19/2020 11:49 am : link
In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.




You are just determined to be the last crew member on the SS DENIAL.
Jim,  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 11:50 am : link
Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.

People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.
RE: Jim,  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 11:54 am : link
In comment 14842467 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.

People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.


The guy from Hackensack University Hospital ( not “General”) said that “the worried well are gumming up the system ... they are responding to the public rhetoric and it’s creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
RE: Hackensack General  
PatersonPlank : 3/19/2020 11:54 am : link
In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.




Jim, were you able to visit U Texas with your daughter before all this crazyness started?
Arnold has it figured out  
Ira : 3/19/2020 11:57 am : link
.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Hackensack General  
PatersonPlank : 3/19/2020 11:57 am : link
In comment 14842466 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.






You are just determined to be the last crew member on the SS DENIAL.


So only bad news should be discussed then?
RE: Jim,  
AcidTest : 3/19/2020 11:58 am : link
In comment 14842467 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.

People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.


Agreed. The FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn is now talking about repurposing and using antiviral drugs, and plasma treatments from recovered patients.
RE: RE: Hackensack General  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 12:00 pm : link
In comment 14842466 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.






You are just determined to be the last crew member on the SS DENIAL.


Guilty as charged. But, me and the family are following all the protocols anyway and are doing everything “right” anyway. So it’s only an intellectual rebellion. Two (now teleworking) adults, 4 kids, and 2 cats is a lot of mammals at home 24/7 lol. Thank god for golf and hiking trails.
There were right around 1,000 deaths yesterday.  
Motley Two : 3/19/2020 12:03 pm : link
Different regions report at different times throughout the day. So far today (last 12 hours) the number is right around 400, similar to where it was yesterday.
Motley  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 12:05 pm : link
I'm assuming you're referencing Italy?
Testing  
TyreeHelmet : 3/19/2020 12:06 pm : link
So free covered testing was just approved? I thought that was in place last week? Seriously asking.
RE: RE: Jim,  
schabadoo : 3/19/2020 12:08 pm : link
In comment 14842469 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14842467 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.

People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.



The guy from Hackensack University Hospital ( not “General”) said that “the worried well are gumming up the system ... they are responding to the public rhetoric and it’s creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”


You have 'public rhetoric' in quotes. Where is your story from? The quote I see is this, and it's about last Thursday, nothing today: "Responding to this type of rhetoric is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy."
Link - ( New Window )
Tyree  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 12:09 pm : link
Just passed today, or last night I believe.
Did she just say that most of the cases come from 3 states  
PatersonPlank : 3/19/2020 12:09 pm : link
and 50% come from 3 counties, or did I hear it wrong?
RE: Motley  
Motley Two : 3/19/2020 12:09 pm : link
In comment 14842492 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I'm assuming you're referencing Italy?


Global Tracker of confirmed cases.
Motley.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 12:12 pm : link
Gotcha. Thanks.
Prince Albert of Monaco tests positive  
montanagiant : 3/19/2020 12:12 pm : link
The palace announced Thursday that Prince Albert of Monaco has tested positive for the coronavirus.
Paterson  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 12:13 pm : link
It seems like the states getting hit hardest from this thus far is Washington, New York, & California.
RE: Paterson  
Motley Two : 3/19/2020 12:17 pm : link
In comment 14842509 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
It seems like the states getting hit hardest from this thus far is Washington, New York, & California.



New York has almost 3,000 more cases then Washington now.

Stay safe everybody.
& the #s will go up once  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 12:20 pm : link
testing begins in earnest.
*more widespread  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 12:20 pm : link
testing.
RE: & the #s will go up once  
nygiants16 : 3/19/2020 12:31 pm : link
In comment 14842514 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
testing begins in earnest.


yup hopefully death rate stays down
Just read the story about that NJ family.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 12:34 pm : link
Horrible.
RE: RE: RE: Jim,  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 12:41 pm : link
In comment 14842498 schabadoo said:
Quote:
In comment 14842469 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


In comment 14842467 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.

People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.



The guy from Hackensack University Hospital ( not “General”) said that “the worried well are gumming up the system ... they are responding to the public rhetoric and it’s creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”



You have 'public rhetoric' in quotes. Where is your story from? The quote I see is this, and it's about last Thursday, nothing today: "Responding to this type of rhetoric is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy." Link - ( New Window )


That’s the story, thx for linking.
RE: RE: Hackensack General  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 12:46 pm : link
In comment 14842470 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.






Jim, were you able to visit U Texas with your daughter before all this crazyness started?


Hey PP, thanks for remembering! Right now she’s between UNC (my alma mater and only 5 hours away from home) and UT honors and whatever pops up on 3/26 when the last admissions decisions come through. If it’s safe to travel around 4/1, we are going to try to fly out to Austin that week. The reports about UT that I’ve been getting are so overwhelmingly positive that I feel that we need to see this shangra-la before any final decision is made.

Thanks again for your input, it was really, really helpful.
UT or UNC?  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 12:50 pm : link
You really can't go wrong with either place, though Austin...God I love that place.
RE: RE: RE: Jim,  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 12:51 pm : link
In comment 14842498 schabadoo said:
Quote:
In comment 14842469 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


In comment 14842467 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.

People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.



The guy from Hackensack University Hospital ( not “General”) said that “the worried well are gumming up the system ... they are responding to the public rhetoric and it’s creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”



You have 'public rhetoric' in quotes. Where is your story from? The quote I see is this, and it's about last Thursday, nothing today: "Responding to this type of rhetoric is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy." Link - ( New Window )


I see your point on my misquote — the quote says its the hospital responding to the rhetoric, not the public reacting to the public rhetoric.
RE: UT or UNC?  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 12:53 pm : link
In comment 14842544 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
You really can't go wrong with either place, though Austin...God I love that place.


I’ve still never been — but honestly, never heard of anyplace with more favorable reactions.

RE: RE: RE: Hackensack General  
PatersonPlank : 3/19/2020 12:54 pm : link
In comment 14842538 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14842470 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:


Quote:


An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.






Jim, were you able to visit U Texas with your daughter before all this crazyness started?



Hey PP, thanks for remembering! Right now she’s between UNC (my alma mater and only 5 hours away from home) and UT honors and whatever pops up on 3/26 when the last admissions decisions come through. If it’s safe to travel around 4/1, we are going to try to fly out to Austin that week. The reports about UT that I’ve been getting are so overwhelmingly positive that I feel that we need to see this shangra-la before any final decision is made.

Thanks again for your input, it was really, really helpful.


Well good luck. Sounds like she has a couple of good choices. Too bad there is no March Madness, both those colleges would be fun if there were games.
RE: Didn’t mean to derail at all...  
BillKo : 3/19/2020 1:20 pm : link
In comment 14842573 trueblueinpw said:
Quote:
Not trying to derail this thread. Just posted a story from NPR. Sorry...


can you sum up the story? Are you saying he knew about it....but didn't tell anyone?

I mean...didn't we know it was coming due to what happening overseas?
Wow, this thread was somewhat civil,  
GiantsUA : 3/19/2020 1:45 pm : link
when did crazy show up?
is it too much to ask to keep this thread non-political?  
GiantsLaw : 3/19/2020 1:57 pm : link
it's supposed to be informative and I'd hate to see it deleted
I'm pretty sure if you mention deep state, you have  
kicker : 3/19/2020 1:59 pm : link
an IQ that may be only slightly north of 50.
I swear some people do this shit on purpose  
montanagiant : 3/19/2020 2:00 pm : link
Just to get a thread deleted
Good News, Everyone!  
JohnF : 3/19/2020 2:01 pm : link
At least something to lift the mood. Of course, it took a Pandemic to get Martin to go back to work, but at least he's motivated!

Game Of Thrones author George R R Martin, 71, suggests he WILL complete the sixth novel in the fantasy series during coronavirus self-isolation... a DECADE after he started it - ( New Window )
RE: I swear some people do this shit on purpose  
kicker : 3/19/2020 2:01 pm : link
In comment 14842620 montanagiant said:
Quote:
Just to get a thread deleted


I don't think so. I think mdc1 is REALLY simple.

Like, Rich in Houston level.
Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
rnargi : 3/19/2020 2:10 pm : link
I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.

See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub
Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )
RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
rnargi : 3/19/2020 2:11 pm : link
In comment 14842629 rnargi said:
Quote:
I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.

See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )


The link is to the news story...here's the abstract
Lonk - ( New Window )
FDA hasn't approved  
Ryan in Albany : 3/19/2020 2:22 pm : link
Chloroquine.
RE: FDA hasn't approved  
rnargi : 3/19/2020 2:26 pm : link
In comment 14842643 Ryan in Albany said:
Quote:
Chloroquine.


Ahhh...looks like I jumped the gun. FDA fast tracking but wants to do a large clinical trial. I wonder if people will invoke "right to try"?
RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
Chris in Philly : 3/19/2020 2:26 pm : link
In comment 14842629 rnargi said:
Quote:
I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.

See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )


The FDA itself said that’s not true.
RE: Wow, this thread was somewhat civil,  
Jim from Katonah : 3/19/2020 2:28 pm : link
In comment 14842605 GiantsUA said:
Quote:
when did crazy show up?


Cabin fever. Plus tons of anxiety. I’m a pretty upbeat person ... but I feel so bad for all the service workers and small biz owners who have to make their 4/1 rent and beyond. Order takeout and gift certificates — and when this is over, let’s all try to help our fellow citizens through this.
RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
rnargi : 3/19/2020 2:29 pm : link
In comment 14842651 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
In comment 14842629 rnargi said:


Quote:


I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.

See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )



The FDA itself said that’s not true.


Noted. The initial report stated, "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hydroxychloroquine—a drug used to treat malaria, rheumatic diseases and other conditions—for COVID-19." I didn't see the subsequent reports. As I said, the FDA apparently wants to do a large test.
I hope this is not true  
Darth Paul : 3/19/2020 2:31 pm : link
but I am hearing Governor is going to shut Jersey down. Businesses and such.

Anyone else heard this?
RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
montanagiant : 3/19/2020 2:41 pm : link
In comment 14842659 rnargi said:
Quote:
In comment 14842651 Chris in Philly said:


Quote:


In comment 14842629 rnargi said:


Quote:


I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.

See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )



The FDA itself said that’s not true.



Noted. The initial report stated, "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hydroxychloroquine—a drug used to treat malaria, rheumatic diseases and other conditions—for COVID-19." I didn't see the subsequent reports. As I said, the FDA apparently wants to do a large test.

They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.

The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work
RE: RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
GFAN52 : 3/19/2020 2:44 pm : link
In comment 14842679 montanagiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14842659 rnargi said:


Quote:


In comment 14842651 Chris in Philly said:


Quote:


In comment 14842629 rnargi said:


Quote:


I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.

See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )



The FDA itself said that’s not true.



Noted. The initial report stated, "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hydroxychloroquine—a drug used to treat malaria, rheumatic diseases and other conditions—for COVID-19." I didn't see the subsequent reports. As I said, the FDA apparently wants to do a large test.


They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.

The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work


FDA head said it's still a few months away as they complete trials on safety.
>10K cases now  
Heisenberg : 3/19/2020 2:46 pm : link

Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk
·
3h
CNN: More than 10,000 people in the United States have tested positive for coronavirus.
RE: I hope this is not true  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/19/2020 2:49 pm : link
In comment 14842663 Darth Paul said:
Quote:
but I am hearing Governor is going to shut Jersey down. Businesses and such.

Anyone else heard this?


With 700+ cases as of today and the number rising, how do you propose to stop it? Hasn’t Jersey already shut down all non-essential businesses already?
Everyone expected the # of cases to rise due to more testing  
PatersonPlank : 3/19/2020 2:52 pm : link
The real question is if the death toll rises too or stays the same (% wise). Obviously we should all be hoping it doesn't rise, and thus drops as a % of cases
If NY was going to shutdown, I'd figure  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 2:54 pm : link
NJ/CT would follow their lead considering it seems like Cuomo is the president of the region.
Paterson  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 2:55 pm : link
Exactly. We knew the #s-in terms of positive cases & sadly deaths-would rise with more testing. Let's just hope the morality rate drops.
Politics, Politicians, Political Opinions and Political theory  
gidiefor : Mod : 3/19/2020 2:56 pm : link
are off limits here. We have a zero tolerance policy for this on BBI.
Bradshaw  
BigBlueDownTheShore : 3/19/2020 3:03 pm : link
How is your wife doing today? Feeling better I hope.
Italy surpasses China in number of coronavirus deaths  
GFAN52 : 3/19/2020 3:03 pm : link
The number of deaths in Italy has reached 3,405. Italy has become the deadliest center of the COVID-19 outbreak.

The current number of deaths in China stands at 3,242, according to the World Health Organization.
RE: Politics, Politicians, Political Opinions and Political theory  
PatersonPlank : 3/19/2020 3:04 pm : link
In comment 14842706 gidiefor said:
Quote:
are off limits here. We have a zero tolerance policy for this on BBI.


Sounds like the 5 D's of Dodgeball:
Dodge, Duck, Dip, Dive, Dodge!
.  
threeofakind33 : 3/19/2020 3:04 pm : link
I find the disingenuous nature of the chloroquine conversation this morning deeply disturbing. It was a step backwards in communications after two days where the team took steps in the right direction. The whiplash from the different messages coming from the president and FDA commissioner was incredible. They have to iron that shit out before coming out to the public.

Additionally, the numbers rising aren’t super alarming. We always knew the numbers were way higher than stated.

I’d really like it if we were having a more mature conversation around long-term remedies. The current lockdown solution isn’t tenable, although it’s the only one viable right now due to the short-term unpreparedness. Longer-term, I don’t see an alternative to near universal testing, tracking, enforcement approach with the most at risk in isolation until herd immunity is built/vaccine is released.

The economic devastation may kill more than the virus if this lingers beyond three months. We must start working toward scaled solutions immediately. Not just responding to the immediate term.
RE: Everyone expected the # of cases to rise due to more testing  
JB_in_DC : 3/19/2020 3:04 pm : link
In comment 14842695 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
The real question is if the death toll rises too or stays the same (% wise). Obviously we should all be hoping it doesn't rise, and thus drops as a % of cases


Yes - mortality rate is continually dropping as testing is ramping up. Total deaths are 1.3837% of current Positive tests. This number was above 2% a week ago.




COVID-19 Tracking - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
MetsAreBack : 3/19/2020 3:05 pm : link
In comment 14842679 montanagiant said:
Quote:



They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.

The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work



Business Insider article on chloroquine - ( New Window )
RE: Politics, Politicians, Political Opinions and Political theory  
Chris in Philly : 3/19/2020 3:05 pm : link
In comment 14842706 gidiefor said:
Quote:
are off limits here. We have a zero tolerance policy for this on BBI.


Gidie, this is a global pandemic that is going to get a lot worse for a lot of us in this community in the coming weeks. You might want to ease up on the sheriff routine when people are just saying a politicians name.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
MetsAreBack : 3/19/2020 3:06 pm : link
In comment 14842679 montanagiant said:
Quote:



They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.

The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work


Hi montana, where did you see that China said ineffective? This article says its one of the approaches theyve been using since mid February.

I dont think anyone is considering using this on anyone that isnt critically ill... sounds like doctors will already give it to patients that ask for it and waive their rights to sue, etc.

Business Insider article on chloroquine - ( New Window )
RE: Paterson  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/19/2020 3:07 pm : link
In comment 14842702 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Exactly. We knew the #s-in terms of positive cases & sadly deaths-would rise with more testing. Let's just hope the morality rate drops.


We already have a semi accurate picture of the mortality rate as long as the health care system holds up , which in a couple places like NYC looks dicey. There is a reason why Fauci came out and said the mortality rate is approximately 1 percent.
Data  
Percy : 3/19/2020 3:08 pm : link
For those of you interested: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-sources-comparison
You can't even  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 3:08 pm : link
say the name of a governor of a state? This seems a bit over the top.
RE: RE: Everyone expected the # of cases to rise due to more testing  
PatersonPlank : 3/19/2020 3:09 pm : link
In comment 14842725 JB_in_DC said:
Quote:
In comment 14842695 PatersonPlank said:


Quote:


The real question is if the death toll rises too or stays the same (% wise). Obviously we should all be hoping it doesn't rise, and thus drops as a % of cases



Yes - mortality rate is continually dropping as testing is ramping up. Total deaths are 1.3837% of current Positive tests. This number was above 2% a week ago.


COVID-19 Tracking - ( New Window )


Welp:  
Mr. Bungle : 3/19/2020 3:09 pm : link
Quote:

A 34-year-old man has died in California after testing positive for coronavirus just days ago, and 2 weeks after visiting Walt Disney World and Universal Studios in Florida.

According to his family, he flew from L.A. to Orlando on March 2 for a work conference, but stayed a few extra days to visit Disney World and Universal theme parks with friends.

We're told on March 7 he developed a cough, and the next day he coughed up blood. He flew back to LAX on March 9 and immediately went to the ER, where he also had a high fever.


Here was the Magic Kingdom on March 15, 6 days after the guy left:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETMPVtFX0AEWghN?format=jpg

link to story - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
montanagiant : 3/19/2020 3:11 pm : link
In comment 14842734 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14842679 montanagiant said:


Quote:





They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.

The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work



Hi montana, where did you see that China said ineffective? This article says its one of the approaches theyve been using since mid February.

I dont think anyone is considering using this on anyone that isnt critically ill... sounds like doctors will already give it to patients that ask for it and waive their rights to sue, etc. Business Insider article on chloroquine - ( New Window )

My bad I got mixed up, it was the HIV drug that did not work:
Quote:
Antiviral drugs that had held promise as a potential treatment for the coronavirus did not work in one of the first major studies in seriously ill patients, researchers from China reported on Wednesday.

“No benefit was observed,” the researchers wrote in The New England Journal of Medicine.

The study tested Kaletra, a combination of two antiviral medicines, lopinavir and ritonavir, that are normally used to treat H.I.V.

There is no proven drug treatment for the new coronavirus, and doctors around the world have been desperately testing an array of medicines in hopes of finding something that will help patients, especially those who are severely ill. Several antiviral drugs have been considered possible treatments, though so far none has proved effective.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
Chris in Philly : 3/19/2020 3:12 pm : link
In comment 14842734 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14842679 montanagiant said:


Quote:





They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.

The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work



Hi montana, where did you see that China said ineffective? This article says its one of the approaches theyve been using since mid February.

I dont think anyone is considering using this on anyone that isnt critically ill... sounds like doctors will already give it to patients that ask for it and waive their rights to sue, etc. Business Insider article on chloroquine - ( New Window )


How has Elon Musk convinces the world that he is an expert on everything? What the fuck does he know about antiviral drugs?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
montanagiant : 3/19/2020 3:12 pm : link
In comment 14842682 GFAN52 said:
Quote:
In comment 14842679 montanagiant said:


Quote:


In comment 14842659 rnargi said:


Quote:


In comment 14842651 Chris in Philly said:


Quote:


In comment 14842629 rnargi said:


Quote:


I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.

See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )



The FDA itself said that’s not true.



Noted. The initial report stated, "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hydroxychloroquine—a drug used to treat malaria, rheumatic diseases and other conditions—for COVID-19." I didn't see the subsequent reports. As I said, the FDA apparently wants to do a large test.


They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.

The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work



FDA head said it's still a few months away as they complete trials on safety.

I was wrong, I confused this with the HIV drug that failed. My apologies
RE: Welp:  
MetsAreBack : 3/19/2020 3:14 pm : link
In comment 14842742 Mr. Bungle said:
Quote:


Quote:



A 34-year-old man has died in California after testing positive for coronavirus just days ago, and 2 weeks after visiting Walt Disney World and Universal Studios in Florida.

According to his family, he flew from L.A. to Orlando on March 2 for a work conference, but stayed a few extra days to visit Disney World and Universal theme parks with friends.

We're told on March 7 he developed a cough, and the next day he coughed up blood. He flew back to LAX on March 9 and immediately went to the ER, where he also had a high fever.




Here was the Magic Kingdom on March 15, 6 days after the guy left:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETMPVtFX0AEWghN?format=jpg link to story - ( New Window )



uggh... that is the most frightening story ive heard yet. And it sounds like the hospital really fucked up in that case too.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
MetsAreBack : 3/19/2020 3:15 pm : link
In comment 14842745 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:


How has Elon Musk convinces the world that he is an expert on everything? What the fuck does he know about antiviral drugs?


Fellow Penn grad Chris!
Horrible about that  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/19/2020 3:17 pm : link
34 year old, though it seemed like he had preexisting conditions: asthma & repeated bouts with bronchitis.

My old man was diagnosed with bronchitis this past weekend. I spoke to him yesterday & he's feeling better, but isn't even thinking of leaving the house, something my siblings & I have repeated endlessly about. Thankfully my sister lives close enough to get his groceries.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Malaria Drug approved for use in treatment  
Chris in Philly : 3/19/2020 3:19 pm : link
In comment 14842748 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14842745 Chris in Philly said:


Quote:




How has Elon Musk convinces the world that he is an expert on everything? What the fuck does he know about antiviral drugs?



Fellow Penn grad Chris!


Oh, I know. I met him when he came back to campus a couple years ago. Our fellow alumni are not covering themselves in glory lately...
RE: .  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/19/2020 3:19 pm : link
In comment 14842724 threeofakind33 said:
Quote:
I find the disingenuous nature of the chloroquine conversation this morning deeply disturbing. It was a step backwards in communications after two days where the team took steps in the right direction. The whiplash from the different messages coming from the president and FDA commissioner was incredible. They have to iron that shit out before coming out to the public.

Additionally, the numbers rising aren’t super alarming. We always kn