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Well, it doesn't hurt to hope...
So it’s like Friday never happened on the DOW.
👎
After the Fed dropped rates to 0-.25% this was bound to happen. Trip circuit breakers have been released and now DOW is down over 2,700 points as of 9:47am.
How far can the market drop?
Also looks like Spain is going into lockdown and about to enter Italy territory. Malaysia is also seeing uptick in new cases.
How far can the market drop?
Today? 20% drop is the final (level 3) circuit breaker.
Long term? Not sure. Some experts think there will be a significant bounce back in the 2nd half of the year. I’m a little pessimistic on that notion.
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......this is quite different than anything we have experienced before.
How far can the market drop?
Today? 20% drop is the final (level 3) circuit breaker.
Long term? Not sure. Some experts think there will be a significant bounce back in the 2nd half of the year. I’m a little pessimistic on that notion.
Boss - 20% since my highwater mark - probably like 1-2 weeks ago........
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In comment 14836907 BillKo said:
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......this is quite different than anything we have experienced before.
How far can the market drop?
Today? 20% drop is the final (level 3) circuit breaker.
Long term? Not sure. Some experts think there will be a significant bounce back in the 2nd half of the year. I’m a little pessimistic on that notion.
Boss - 20% since my highwater mark - probably like 1-2 weeks ago........
You’re not alone. I look at it daily myself. Hopefully over the long run, the Fed did the right thing by reducing rates.
Humans are being tested with a potential vaccine in the Seattle area I thought I saw early this morning.
just not going to look at them. Definitely not daily. Not sure why someone would follow their 401k daily.
Good news is I'm not close to retirement, so the future investment into 401k/etc. will be at (hopefully) artificially low prices.
While Florence was celebrated for its premium leatherwork, Prato was best known for the production of textiles. The Wenzhou workers tacked in a third direction. They imported cheap cloth from China and turned it into what is now called pronto moda, or “fast fashion”: polyester shirts, plasticky pants, insignia jackets. These items sold briskly to low-end retailers and in open-air markets throughout the world.
inexpensive immigrant labor to manufacture handbags that bear the coveted “Made in Italy” label. - ( New Window )
I've got friends (I now question why) that made it a point to go out as much as possible this past week/weekend and constantly give updates about what bar they are at and let us know that "no one here is sick".
There's trolling and then there's just being a fucking piece of shit.
just not going to look at them. Definitely not daily. Not sure why someone would follow their 401k daily.
Good news is I'm not close to retirement, so the future investment into 401k/etc. will be at (hopefully) artificially low prices.
PJ - I only glanced once a week over the last 2 weeks since everything has dipped.
But before that, with stocks rising nearly everyday, how could you not look?? LOL.......if you had a 401K you were cleaning up.
I'm 52 so I've got a ways to go before retiring but these events are unnerving. When the stock market crashed back in 2008, I really didn't have a big investment.
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don't think a national lockdown of the U.S is likely, or will be effective. The country is too big, and many people would ignore it. Localized lockdowns might help slow the virus, but probably not enough. I'm beginning to believe there is nothing we can really do except maybe let the virus run its course until a vaccine can be developed.
I've got friends (I now question why) that made it a point to go out as much as possible this past week/weekend and constantly give updates about what bar they are at and let us know that "no one here is sick".
There's trolling and then there's just being a fucking piece of shit.
Wow, what a bunch of assholes. Keep your distance from those walking disease vectors!
Also I get quarterly statements electronically, so I see those. But I don't check daily.
I lived through the 2000 (?) tech bubble, 9-11, 2008 recession, etc. so I have been through some roller coasters.
Anyone know a place that has this information?
I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
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don't think a national lockdown of the U.S is likely, or will be effective. The country is too big, and many people would ignore it. Localized lockdowns might help slow the virus, but probably not enough. I'm beginning to believe there is nothing we can really do except maybe let the virus run its course until a vaccine can be developed.
I've got friends (I now question why) that made it a point to go out as much as possible this past week/weekend and constantly give updates about what bar they are at and let us know that "no one here is sick".
There's trolling and then there's just being a fucking piece of shit.
I have heard the same from others - "This isn't going to change my life. I won't live in fear."
This isn't terrorists you dumbasses...the virus doesn't care what you do with your life. You aren't proving anything to anyone, other than you have very poor judgment.
just not going to look at them. Definitely not daily. Not sure why someone would follow their 401k daily.
Good news is I'm not close to retirement, so the future investment into 401k/etc. will be at (hopefully) artificially low prices.
This. People are stupid. If you're retiring, you shouldn't have that much money in stocks. If you're young, you shouldn't be checking your stuff daily, and should recognize that now is the opportunity to increase your stock purchasing power by 50%.
While Florence was celebrated for its premium leatherwork, Prato was best known for the production of textiles. The Wenzhou workers tacked in a third direction. They imported cheap cloth from China and turned it into what is now called pronto moda, or “fast fashion”: polyester shirts, plasticky pants, insignia jackets. These items sold briskly to low-end retailers and in open-air markets throughout the world. inexpensive immigrant labor to manufacture handbags that bear the coveted “Made in Italy” label. - ( New Window )
Of course, workers from China are the reason it is widespread in Italy and Iran.
I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
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Humans are being tested with a potential vaccine in the Seattle area I thought I saw early this morning.
Which probably isn't a wise move. You are going to read about a ton of these "promising" vaccines that as soon as they hit animal trials fail. Same thing happened with SARS and swine flu. Unless we get incredibly lucky.
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
Southwest Florida may get hit hard, that is retirement villa down there including my father.
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in eastern Florida and no significant impact that I have noticed. The epicenter of the virus for the state is in southwest FL where there have been a few deaths and also where my 82 year old mother lives.
I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
0 two week ago. 155 last I heard. I'm hoping that it is the heat (as that means better news for the rest of the country), but it's also too early to tell, as we aren't at the point yet where any exponential growth will show.
Saw pictures where Disney was packed before closing. Just stupid.
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In comment 14836973 X said:
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
Southwest Florida may get hit hard, that is retirement villa down there including my father.
Hopefully he’s taking all precautions.
I got extremely lucky.
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In comment 14836973 X said:
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
Southwest Florida may get hit hard, that is retirement villa down there including my father.
I posted I had a colleague down in Clearwater FL on vacation and he said the beach are packed as are restaurants. Looks normal other than stadiums empty.
That's not good.
Just waiting for the same from Tool, haha. Granted at this point I hope they do because I don't want to have to make that decision for myself next month
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in eastern Florida and no significant impact that I have noticed. The epicenter of the virus for the state is in southwest FL where there have been a few deaths and also where my 82 year old mother lives.
I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
The numbers are all over the place for Florida. I have seen 31 and 149 for all of Florida.
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In comment 14836984 The_Boss said:
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In comment 14836973 X said:
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
Southwest Florida may get hit hard, that is retirement villa down there including my father.
I posted I had a colleague down in Clearwater FL on vacation and he said the beach are packed as are restaurants. Looks normal other than stadiums empty.
That's not good.
Fort Lauderdale’s beaches are closed and they have officers on horseback patrolling A1A along beach access points.
Link - ( New Window )
I know a smoker with COPD who has kids, said the same thing.
Dumbasses.
My son works at a local hospital, we're highly concerned. They have one case, and are expecting to get overwhelmed pretty quickly.
At Ithaca College, person was tested May 5th came back negative. Over the weekend they tested positive - nearly a full week went by with this person presuming they didn't have it.
What REALLY sucks is ALLERGY season is about to kick in, confusing people more.
Actually if you're under 40. The symptoms are pretty much like a mild flu. In China the death rate for people in their 20 and 30s, is 0.2% and because many cases go unreported it's probably lower. Since people tend to judge things by their personal experience, the comment makes sense.
However, it's not like the flu for his parents or grandparents. And it's overall effect is devastating. So your co-working isn't wrong....but he's wrong.
I'm 67 so I'm home. But if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay. In either case, I would be washing my hands a lot.
Bottom line, a comment like that is an opportunity to engage someone in helpful conversation. Use it. Help him out.
Why couldn't markets (global market maybe) agree to 'shut down' so that we freeze the market in its current state? I know this is a stupid question but I don't know the answer.
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line. Good God man...
Actually if you're under 40. The symptoms are pretty much like a mild flu. In China the death rate for people in their 20 and 30s, is 0.2% and because many cases go unreported it's probably lower. Since people tend to judge things by their personal experience, the comment makes sense.
However, it's not like the flu for his parents or grandparents. And it's overall effect is devastating. So your co-working isn't wrong....but he's wrong.
I'm 67 so I'm home. But if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay. In either case, I would be washing my hands a lot.
Bottom line, a comment like that is an opportunity to engage someone in helpful conversation. Use it. Help him out.
Precisely. And that's the exact danger. Kids, who are notorious germ spreaders, show very little signs. I am keeping my children on our property for the most part, and keeping grandparents away.
This included the Gyms
Mass as well...
"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."
He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.
--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."
He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.
--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
The White House debunked this last night. Not out of the realm of possibility, but right now not happening per my Govt. affairs Dept.
I just blasted him. He F'ing works there. How does he fall for this shit. GD
"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."
He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.
--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
The Stafford Act was invoked on Friday. Freed up ~50B for use in fighting the pandemic.
That was an exhilarating 3 minutes!
"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."
He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.
--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
The NSC said this was a false rumor. This potentially is asking for more problems. Do you think everyone in the country is going to be able to get enough food for 2 weeks? You’ll have people fighting (literally) over dwindling supplies of milk, bread, eggs, water, meat, etc.
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Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.
"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."
He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.
--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
The NSC said this was a false rumor. This potentially is asking for more problems. Do you think everyone in the country is going to be able to get enough food for 2 weeks? You’ll have people fighting (literally) over dwindling supplies of milk, bread, eggs, water, meat, etc.
Or what everyone else just said. Fake.
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Hey guys, a buddy of mine in the state dept here in DC just sent me the following text. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but he passed it on to me and I thought I should share.
"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."
He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.
--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
The NSC said this was a false rumor. This potentially is asking for more problems. Do you think everyone in the country is going to be able to get enough food for 2 weeks? You’ll have people fighting (literally) over dwindling supplies of milk, bread, eggs, water, meat, etc.
Yep. Just ripped my buddy. At least now I know he's not as connected or high up as he has always touted he is at State.
Link - ( New Window )
Dumbasses.
My son works at a local hospital, we're highly concerned. They have one case, and are expecting to get overwhelmed pretty quickly.
At Ithaca College, person was tested May 5th came back negative. Over the weekend they tested positive - nearly a full week went by with this person presuming they didn't have it.
What REALLY sucks is ALLERGY season is about to kick in, confusing people more.
I’d be worried that allergies, more to the point, allergic asthma, would actually exacerbate it when we do get infected.
"Within 48-72 hours the president will evoke what is called the Stafford Act. This is a two week mandatory quarantine for the entire nation."
He says to stock up on whatever you need to make it for two weeks.
--Please do not shoot the messenger. This was passed on to me, and my buddy doesn't usually pull any BS, so I'm inclined to believe him. But he got the information from his contacts that were in a two hour meeting this morning. Take it for what its worth--
This guy’s an a-hole - ( New Window )
Thanks, SFGF. At least it was debunked and we know that now.
What's the latest vis a vis our hospitals getting overwhelmed? They keep saying we're a week or so behind Italy & Europe.
What's the latest vis a vis our hospitals getting overwhelmed? They keep saying we're a week or so behind Italy & Europe.
i have a friend who works at morristown memorisl in new jersey, he said it is business as usual, no craziness
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i think some people need normalcy, for me i have really bad snxiety, ehen i am home and i feel stuck i go a little crazy...
whrn going to work i feel normal, doesnt mean i am stupid though, all my employees wearing gloves, every time customer comes in and leaves spary down what they touched..i am not being stupid i just need some sense of normal
yes its true
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That can't be true, can it?
yes its true
When people are told to stay home and out of public as much as possible, waiving fees at parks so people can congregate in public? Talk about mixed messages.
And you'd be wrong for doing so.
Yes, because you can't get the coronavirus outdoors. And there are no restrooms at parks ...
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line. Good God man...
I'm 67 so I'm home. But if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay. In either case, I would be washing my hands a lot.
Umm no, if you are 27, especially if there is reason to believe you have come in contact, even if you are asymptomatic, you can still give it to others, who can give it to others, some of whom may be older with worse consequences.
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because it is outdoors
Yes, because you can't get the coronavirus outdoors. And there are no restrooms at parks ...
I hear ya, but that is what they did. It is official there are no fees.
My friend just texted me a picture of him at a bar with a beer. This is also someone who had to move back home and lives with his mom who's pushing 70. He so fucking stupid it hurts.
In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.
The_Boss -- I mean no disrespect whatsoever, but I'm old enough and smart enough to say flat out that this is not worth a damn thing. Nada. Nothing.
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I posted I had a colleague down in Clearwater FL on vacation and he said the beach are packed as are restaurants. Looks normal other than stadiums empty.
That's not good.
I went to St. Pete Beach Saturday, it was busy but nowhere near the crowds it usually has St. Patricks weekend during spring break. Probably about half honestly, and I lived across the street for five years and I think they were expecting more with increased visibility from Floribama Shore filming there.
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line. Good God man...
Actually if you're under 40. The symptoms are pretty much like a mild flu. In China the death rate for people in their 20 and 30s, is 0.2% and because many cases go unreported it's probably lower. Since people tend to judge things by their personal experience, the comment makes sense.
However, it's not like the flu for his parents or grandparents. And it's overall effect is devastating. So your co-working isn't wrong....but he's wrong.
I'm 67 so I'm home. But if I was 27 I would still be going to work as long as I felt okay. In either case, I would be washing my hands a lot.
Bottom line, a comment like that is an opportunity to engage someone in helpful conversation. Use it. Help him out.
I'm not sure I would trust any stat put out by China. Their government is why this problem exists in the first place. There needs to be a firewall.
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Probably a combination of the two. There are definitely some who like giving the finger to common sense & there are definitely some who are completely uniformed.
My friend just texted me a picture of him at a bar with a beer. This is also someone who had to move back home and lives with his mom who's pushing 70. He so fucking stupid it hurts.
In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.
Your friend sounds like a fucking moron. The CDC thing sounds like bunk, the absolute last thing the CDC does it lie to the general public, that creates more panic with the inevitability it is found out and losing complete trust in the CDC which creates panic. This article explains how "airborne" it is. Technically yes, but in real world application essentially no.
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Probably a combination of the two. There are definitely some who like giving the finger to common sense & there are definitely some who are completely uniformed.
My friend just texted me a picture of him at a bar with a beer. This is also someone who had to move back home and lives with his mom who's pushing 70. He so fucking stupid it hurts.
In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.
Well that's scary.
It isn't just the elderly at risk, its the unhealthy as well with what seems pretty devastating risks to individuals that fall in both groups.
Middle age and having underlying health factors seems to be a risk as well.
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in eastern Florida and no significant impact that I have noticed. The epicenter of the virus for the state is in southwest FL where there have been a few deaths and also where my 82 year old mother lives.
I'm wondering if the warm weather is having any impact.
Yeah, the market has been crazy and I've been buying. I'll hold up since we have not hit bottom with panic selling.
How fast has it spread in Florida? The hope is it slows during the warmer months up here from May through early September.
About 40 new cases a day, however, testing has lagged. Also, Broward and Dade have many more cases than the rest of the state. The prior post about SWFL is not correct.
In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.
All the friends who are infectious disease experts are suddenly crawling out of the woodwork. And the dentist makes it somehow credible?
Reminds me of this:
My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with a girl who saw Ferris pass-out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it’s pretty serious.
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...I was shocked to see the St Pat's Pub Crawl wasn't cancelled.
Dumbasses.
My son works at a local hospital, we're highly concerned. They have one case, and are expecting to get overwhelmed pretty quickly.
At Ithaca College, person was tested May 5th came back negative. Over the weekend they tested positive - nearly a full week went by with this person presuming they didn't have it.
What REALLY sucks is ALLERGY season is about to kick in, confusing people more.
I’d be worried that allergies, more to the point, allergic asthma, would actually exacerbate it when we do get infected.
That is my fear, that is the kind of asthma I suffer from... Too much dust, and the wheezing starts.
Other than that, the only other time I notice it it when I get the flu, which I did about about 5 weeks ago. Still getting an asthmatic cough. But it is slowly going away.
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In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.
All the friends who are infectious disease experts are suddenly crawling out of the woodwork. And the dentist makes it somehow credible?
Reminds me of this:
My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with a girl who saw Ferris pass-out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it’s pretty serious.
Uhh, what?
I'm passing along info from people in the medical field. My friend who is a dentist is good friends with a doctor on the front lines with whom he went to school. Its like you didn't even read what I wrote, or did but think anything second hand should be ignored.
I can't personally verify anything, but none of us can (so I guess delete the thread?). Its nothing more than a bit of information that I haven't read yet - feel free to ignore it if you think its the same thing as it coming from your cousins plumber.
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In comment 14837040 x meadowlander said:
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...I was shocked to see the St Pat's Pub Crawl wasn't cancelled.
Dumbasses.
My son works at a local hospital, we're highly concerned. They have one case, and are expecting to get overwhelmed pretty quickly.
At Ithaca College, person was tested May 5th came back negative. Over the weekend they tested positive - nearly a full week went by with this person presuming they didn't have it.
What REALLY sucks is ALLERGY season is about to kick in, confusing people more.
I’d be worried that allergies, more to the point, allergic asthma, would actually exacerbate it when we do get infected.
That is my fear, that is the kind of asthma I suffer from... Too much dust, and the wheezing starts.
Other than that, the only other time I notice it it when I get the flu, which I did about about 5 weeks ago. Still getting an asthmatic cough. But it is slowly going away.
That’s exactly where I am. I tested positive for the flu last week. It’s gone but the cough and congestion remain.
Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle is starting clinical trials on a vaccine (don't get too excited, it's really early and lots of trials to go, still 12 - 18 months away)
NJ: A curfew from 8pn to 5am has been imposed. NY & NJ: Movie theaters, Gyms, and Casinos are closed - only take-out restaurants are allowed to be open, gatherings of 50+ are banned
They're still lining up at the Costco by me.
it's is ridiculously stupid.
How does labeling it or not change reality and what we have the supplies to handle or not. What difference does it make?
This is exactly the kind of bullshit that some people eat up, but until you see a source shouldn't share.
And not my dentist friend, heard it from an "infectious disease expert"
I mean it doesn't sound accurate at all to me, a quick google search proved it to be technically accurate but no where near as bad as it the story makes it out to be and it is how hearsay becomes truth.
I feel the same way from hearing from healthcare workers on the frontlines before awareness became widespread. Like it is interesting but not particularly useful. It is why I liked what Milton posted, which I thought it was interesting because people derided him for it are the same people that are lapping up every story from hospital workers on the frontlines.
Everyone hates bankers, but they generally look at things through a very big picture lense (or at least try to) and have a ton of money on the line in being correct.
it's is ridiculously stupid.
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...CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it..
How does labeling it or not change reality and what we have the supplies to handle or not. What difference does it make?
This is exactly the kind of bullshit that some people eat up, but until you see a source shouldn't share.
And not my dentist friend, heard it from an "infectious disease expert"
Thats exactly when my BS meter went up. The CDC has pretty much stated time and time again, they are forced to be honest, because the inevitabilty of not being honest would create the same panic when it is eventually found out plus the added mistrust of all information coming from them. Logically it doesnt track at all.
Doesn't sound catastrophic to me. Some people jsut seem more prone to over reactions, just like on the game threads when we are down by 10 pts in the 1st and some declare the game is over.
Droplet to airborne transmission is on a spectrum. This virus is somewhere on there allowing for airborne transmission.
Last interview I saw he used the old saying if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck regarding airborne transmission. Now, that is not a very scientific explanation, but he said it spreads like flu and trying to contain flu is like trying to contain the wind. He also has stated that he and others at his organization believe that when China lifts their lockdown, the virus may resurface there in a major way.
Guy doesn't seem like a quack to me.
Cuomo has basically said there are not enough beds and equipment here in NYS. He has rightfully called for drastic action to retrofit and construct other facilities for caring for the sick. There are now articles of medical workers, two I have seen, in critical condition with this from treating others on the front line. We are a week away from a very possible medical system collapse. So much time was lost wondering if this thing would come, when it was already here, and what it would do when it came, when it was causing a double digit hospitalization rate everywhere it went. When Iran's government offcials starting dying and Italy started it's crisis, alarm bells should have gone off here. All of this could be seen on open source info.
Plus, it spreads like wildfire, including people with no symptoms, the second NBA player who tested positive was on TV this morning saying he feels like he could play a seven game series, yet he has it.
This is the real deal. It seems to have some ability to spread by air, and it has asymptomatic people out there who have it.
So much damage may have been prevented with much of these current actions taken at least a week ago.
Now, with exponential growth, there will be Italy like conditions all over the USA.
A story I heard in an interview that sums this up.
Let's say this virus was in a petri dish and it was a given it would take 60 minutes for the virus to fill the dish completely. Pose the question: At what time of that 60 minute duration would the dish be half full? Almost anyone would day, 30 minutes. That answer would be incorrect, the dish would be half full at 59 minutes.
That is what we are dealing with here, the US, and big cities like NY are now approaching that 59 to sixty minute threshold. This is the real deal and the governor has already said the system can't cope. It is a war and the virus is winning.
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thing that is so stupid it's not worth sharing.
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In our same group chat my friend who's a dentist just told us that one of his good friends from med school is an infectious disease doctor and he's saying its definitely airborne and the CDC doesn't want to officially label it as such because we don't have the supplies to handle it. China has also tested it to be airborne for up to 4.5 meters.
All the friends who are infectious disease experts are suddenly crawling out of the woodwork. And the dentist makes it somehow credible?
Reminds me of this:
My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with a girl who saw Ferris pass-out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it’s pretty serious.
Uhh, what?
I'm passing along info from people in the medical field. My friend who is a dentist is good friends with a doctor on the front lines with whom he went to school. Its like you didn't even read what I wrote, or did but think anything second hand should be ignored.
I can't personally verify anything, but none of us can (so I guess delete the thread?). Its nothing more than a bit of information that I haven't read yet - feel free to ignore it if you think its the same thing as it coming from your cousins plumber.
Actually we have known this for a while. There were scientific journals published last week that revealed a number of things.
1) In aerosol, even tiny droplets that can remain aloft for hours, the virus can live in the air at least 3 hours. In a few rare cases it live as long as 7...
2) Aerosol droplets with virus will spread indoors up to 30 ft. (if it lives for 3 hours this seems low, but that is what it said)
3) It lives for days on various surfaces:
Cardboard: 3 days
Vairous Metals: from 5 to 8 days depending on the metal
Plastic: up to 9 days
So try to avoid anyplace where people have gathered recently (try to avoid people period). Disinfect everything you get, packages including contents, mail, etc. One expert said "assume everything is infected".
Health personnel from other countries is recommending distancing between other of alteast 4 meters. We were also told a couple weeks ago that masks don't do anything but keep you from touching your face - well that isn't true either.
There's very little out there that has been verified as 100% accurate. In my post if I took out everything and just said "reports are stating that this is likely contagious past the 6ft threshold the CDC is publishing" there wouldn't be any backlash. Furthermore, its likely true anyway. Why just 6 feet - how did they come up with that exact number?
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that is third hand gossip/isn't completely 100%. A lot of us-well @ me-are pretty scared of where this is going & we don't need to be scared any further by information that isn't true, even if that's not your intent.
There's very little out there that has been verified as 100% accurate. In my post if I took out everything and just said "reports are stating that this is likely contagious past the 6ft threshold the CDC is publishing" there wouldn't be any backlash. Furthermore, its likely true anyway. Why just 6 feet - how did they come up with that exact number?
I believe 6 ft is the distance that a cough/sneeze could have the spit/mucus droplets travel.
Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.
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We own an Airbnb where we are going to put her up in but that means we have to cancel a 2-day reservation set for the 23rd of March and a 1-week cancellation for the 1st of April.
Thankfully Airbnb has the following rule in place for the Coronavirus:
So if you have an Airbnb or are concerned you will lose money for a Reservation you made prior to March 14th you can now cancel penalty free
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so their numbers represent a much large %
Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.
It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.
However any barrier Neosporin,vasoline, coconut oil even Saline spray helps keep nostrils moist and does put up and extra barrier for virus,
Dry nostrils are more vulnerable.
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In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:
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so their numbers represent a much large %
Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.
It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.
No it doesn't. It isn't just a math equation, there's a ton of variables that you aren't accounting for.
The US has 2 coasts that are 3,000 miles apart. It hit the west coast hard and took a while to get here (from the west coast and europe) and now its starting its damage in the NE. We don't yet know the rate of spread, its still too early.
It probably makes more sense to compare California to Italy since the virus is there and is growing, population is in the ball park and you can move around the state, in theory, the same way people in Italy would move around.
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In comment 14837387 Heisenberg said:
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In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:
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so their numbers represent a much large %
Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.
It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.
No it doesn't. It isn't just a math equation, there's a ton of variables that you aren't accounting for.
The US has 2 coasts that are 3,000 miles apart. It hit the west coast hard and took a while to get here (from the west coast and europe) and now its starting its damage in the NE. We don't yet know the rate of spread, its still too early.
It probably makes more sense to compare California to Italy since the virus is there and is growing, population is in the ball park and you can move around the state, in theory, the same way people in Italy would move around.
Correct, its just math. That is what I was trying to point out, you can't just say the growth is like Italy. Who knows how many more people here have been exposed than in Italy. Since there is at least one case in all states except WV, then you could guess its many more, but who really knows. I was responding to the "growth rates being the same" comment. Also just stating take California is a major over simplification. People can move freely all around, and many people continually travel to/from CA. I was there myself 4 weeks ago before all this really blew up.
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In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:
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so their numbers represent a much large %
Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.
It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.
you have the definition of growth rate completely wrong. Please go do some googling.
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In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:
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so their numbers represent a much large %
Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.
It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.
The virus doesn't care about nationality, it doesn't care about population size. The virus does care about population density. In the US the majority of the population is located in narrow bands along the coasts. There are a handful of population centers. The virus will do its exponential expansion thing in those areas just fine. It may spread a little slower to rural areas where people are more spread out and thus have a natural form of social distancing. But that is only about 25% of the US population.
So far the virus has been doubling in the US every 2.5 - 3 days. Which is consistent with Italy. It is the doubling rate that is important, not the size of the population. If the population is 6x larger all that means is it takes 1 or 2 more doubling cycles to get everybody.
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In comment 14837387 Heisenberg said:
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In comment 14837367 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
so their numbers represent a much large %
Well sure. But our cases are mostly located in Wash, CA and NY so the density there is still pretty high. The point is that the growth rate is damn near exactly the same. The fact that we have more folks to eventually infect is not really the point.
It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.
you have the definition of growth rate completely wrong. Please go do some googling.
Agreed, growth rate has nothing to do with % of population. It is the rate at which the number of infected doubles. In the US it has been every 2.5 to 3 days.
Oh
Stringer should have never fucked over Avon...
Not exactly sure how that works. If I need to test my kid for strep, what happens?
Not exactly sure how that works. If I need to test my kid for strep, what happens?
Urgent Care maybe?
I guess I always felt it was a little like chicken pox and once you get it you don't get it again.
It appears not to be the case, so how do you contain this then without a vaccine?
You'll never get 100% eradication, right?
Is it common to be reinfected? I have since read a handful of others were also reinfected.
There was mocking, but it seems now that this really is a big deal that is driving world events. I also think no one in the world knows exactly how this will play out.
In my opinion, the conclusion that the virus was in control could be drawn simply by reading, watching and analyzing quality open source media and information from the Internet. You did not have to be a CIA agent or work at the NSA to see this threat to the American people and economy coming.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
They actually had bowling live the other day (no fans obviously), but I found myself watching that. Is this really what we are down to at this point?
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
I usually keep 1000 rounds on hand, I have 5000 now. If that makes me guilty of hoarding I apologize. There was probably 5 million rounds in the store where I bought it before this blew up, just felt like I should have more.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Doesn't surprise me. People preparing for armageddon.
Smart. I wonder if other states will follow suit.
Not sure if that means beer too.
now is when some people will be significantly tested.
What does that mean - you can't leave your house, city, state or what?
So people aren't allowed to leave their house?
you know some people were thinking, eh whatever, I get three weeks to work from home, I'll order in, watch netflix, and drink a shitload for three weeks.
Now those people, the ones who were accepting and calm, are going to panic.
lol.
Why would guns/ammo be in demand?
As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?
... and yes I know about the second amendment.
Why would guns/ammo be in demand?
As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?
... and yes I know about the second amendment.
When people panic they don't think rationally, hence the run on grocery stores and guns. I mean if you scared you cling to your guns and buy a fuckton of groceries for a sense of control.
Not sure if that means beer too.
now is when some people will be significantly tested.
from my buddies in PA, the liquor stores are controlled by the state and thats why they are shutting down. Beer stores still open
Shits getting serious
Then there are the small group of wingnuts who are getting ready for a 'Mad Max' scenario, thinking when they run out of their stuff, they'll just take what they need from the other guy.
Such is life in a society where guns are everywhere.
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Is in a 14 day shut down.
What does that mean - you can't leave your house, city, state or what?
But what is the point of this if other states, particularly neighboring states, dont do the same thing?
Droplet to airborne transmission is on a spectrum. This virus is somewhere on there allowing for airborne transmission.
Last interview I saw he used the old saying if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck regarding airborne transmission. Now, that is not a very scientific explanation, but he said it spreads like flu and trying to contain flu is like trying to contain the wind. He also has stated that he and others at his organization believe that when China lifts their lockdown, the virus may resurface there in a major way.
Guy doesn't seem like a quack to me.
Cuomo has basically said there are not enough beds and equipment here in NYS. He has rightfully called for drastic action to retrofit and construct other facilities for caring for the sick. There are now articles of medical workers, two I have seen, in critical condition with this from treating others on the front line. We are a week away from a very possible medical system collapse. So much time was lost wondering if this thing would come, when it was already here, and what it would do when it came, when it was causing a double digit hospitalization rate everywhere it went. When Iran's government offcials starting dying and Italy started it's crisis, alarm bells should have gone off here. All of this could be seen on open source info.
Plus, it spreads like wildfire, including people with no symptoms, the second NBA player who tested positive was on TV this morning saying he feels like he could play a seven game series, yet he has it.
This is the real deal. It seems to have some ability to spread by air, and it has asymptomatic people out there who have it.
So much damage may have been prevented with much of these current actions taken at least a week ago.
Now, with exponential growth, there will be Italy like conditions all over the USA.
A story I heard in an interview that sums this up.
Let's say this virus was in a petri dish and it was a given it would take 60 minutes for the virus to fill the dish completely. Pose the question: At what time of that 60 minute duration would the dish be half full? Almost anyone would day, 30 minutes. That answer would be incorrect, the dish would be half full at 59 minutes.
That is what we are dealing with here, the US, and big cities like NY are now approaching that 59 to sixty minute threshold. This is the real deal and the governor has already said the system can't cope. It is a war and the virus is winning.
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The end of civilization is here
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an infectious disease expert, he works for something called Center for Disease Research and Policy out of the University of Minnesota. I have heard him say in multiple interviews now a major mode of transmission is by breathing it in.
Droplet to airborne transmission is on a spectrum. This virus is somewhere on there allowing for airborne transmission.
Last interview I saw he used the old saying if it walks like a duck, looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck regarding airborne transmission. Now, that is not a very scientific explanation, but he said it spreads like flu and trying to contain flu is like trying to contain the wind. He also has stated that he and others at his organization believe that when China lifts their lockdown, the virus may resurface there in a major way.
Guy doesn't seem like a quack to me.
Cuomo has basically said there are not enough beds and equipment here in NYS. He has rightfully called for drastic action to retrofit and construct other facilities for caring for the sick. There are now articles of medical workers, two I have seen, in critical condition with this from treating others on the front line. We are a week away from a very possible medical system collapse. So much time was lost wondering if this thing would come, when it was already here, and what it would do when it came, when it was causing a double digit hospitalization rate everywhere it went. When Iran's government offcials starting dying and Italy started it's crisis, alarm bells should have gone off here. All of this could be seen on open source info.
Plus, it spreads like wildfire, including people with no symptoms, the second NBA player who tested positive was on TV this morning saying he feels like he could play a seven game series, yet he has it.
This is the real deal. It seems to have some ability to spread by air, and it has asymptomatic people out there who have it.
So much damage may have been prevented with much of these current actions taken at least a week ago.
Now, with exponential growth, there will be Italy like conditions all over the USA.
A story I heard in an interview that sums this up.
Let's say this virus was in a petri dish and it was a given it would take 60 minutes for the virus to fill the dish completely. Pose the question: At what time of that 60 minute duration would the dish be half full? Almost anyone would day, 30 minutes. That answer would be incorrect, the dish would be half full at 59 minutes.
That is what we are dealing with here, the US, and big cities like NY are now approaching that 59 to sixty minute threshold. This is the real deal and the governor has already said the system can't cope. It is a war and the virus is winning.
Link - ( New Window )
The end of civilization is here
It is a very serious situation, I am not sure it is the end of civilization
Why would guns/ammo be in demand?
As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?
... and yes I know about the second amendment.
Obviously firearms won't protect you from a virus, I know that was facetious.
I only use my firearms recreationally, at least that's all I plan on using them for. I enjoy going to the range and becoming more and more proficient in marksmanship with various types of firearms. Handguns, shotguns, rifles, and even tried and enjoy skeet. I enjoy archery as well - much harder than some people may think.
I would use a firearm in self defense if it came to it, but so far it has not and i hope it never does.
To the point about ammo though, I think it all comes with the "be prepared" motto. Same reason people hoard toilet paper, load up on booze, load up on canned goods, water, etc. I guess I just view ammo as part of the preparation.
Since I have enough ammo, I didn't need to buy any more once things became more serious with the virus, but if I didn't I absolutely would - along with other items (besides the aforementioned food, water and TP - making sure my gas cans are full, we have plenty of batteries, working flash lights, cash, etc.)
Just seems like common sense to me.
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You guys need ammo to fight the virus? :-)
Why would guns/ammo be in demand?
As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?
... and yes I know about the second amendment.
Obviously firearms won't protect you from a virus, I know that was facetious.
I only use my firearms recreationally, at least that's all I plan on using them for. I enjoy going to the range and becoming more and more proficient in marksmanship with various types of firearms. Handguns, shotguns, rifles, and even tried and enjoy skeet. I enjoy archery as well - much harder than some people may think.
I would use a firearm in self defense if it came to it, but so far it has not and i hope it never does.
To the point about ammo though, I think it all comes with the "be prepared" motto. Same reason people hoard toilet paper, load up on booze, load up on canned goods, water, etc. I guess I just view ammo as part of the preparation.
Since I have enough ammo, I didn't need to buy any more once things became more serious with the virus, but if I didn't I absolutely would - along with other items (besides the aforementioned food, water and TP - making sure my gas cans are full, we have plenty of batteries, working flash lights, cash, etc.)
Just seems like common sense to me.
Thank you for the serious answer (and the other poster as well)
I find it very interesting to talk about guns and the second amendment, as it is so different from our way of thinking.
Stay safe over there.
It actually means the growth rate is much smaller. Growth rate is a %, so far in the US the growth is happening about 1/6 as fast. Just as if we were somewhere that had 3k people, then the growth rate would be much much faster.
I have no idea what you're talking about... not that it matters anyway because we know we've massively underestimated the carriers currently since we're still not doing much testing.
You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.
Rationing would result in riots. The better bet is to make sure the supply chain remains in tact (your state or the gov) and if you miss out on the food, get there first tomorrow. Making 2 trips to the store when you are already home all day from work (maybe you aren’t but most are) doesn’t seem like a big deal.
You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.
You know a lot of people that take a shit and use a regular towel to wipe their ass?
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since that is never going to happen the grocery stores need to enable rationing. Everything is going to sell anyway, but I now have to make twice as many trips to the grocery store than usual because they never have anything. They already started with the ground beef, but shit I'm about to run out of paper towels. Guess I won't be disenfecting shit pretty soon.
You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.
Rationing would result in riots. The better bet is to make sure the supply chain remains in tact (your state or the gov) and if you miss out on the food, get there first tomorrow. Making 2 trips to the store when you are already home all day from work (maybe you aren’t but most are) doesn’t seem like a big deal.
Rationing isn't resulting in riots anywhere else they are doing it. I just got off a demo with someone in Australia and many places started to ration toilet paper and paper towels. Lots of people are buying supplies for a months, when they'll inevitably be at the grocery store within a week or two because they forgot something or need produce. The supply chain isn't designated for that.
And I already talked to the manager at Publix, produce is gone by 9 am but trucks are running late all over the place for other stuff. Rice and Pasta were completely gone. And honestly the grocery store is one of the few places I want to go right now. I was actually surprised they had no easy access to wipes for carts.
I honestly would like to limit with trips to the grocery store because it is really the only place I'm directly in contact with many of these people in these risk groups. And it's really the only place they should be in public if no choice. I actually was looking around at the population and there were a ton of middle age people there, mostly unfit, with I'm sure underlying health conditions they probably have no idea about. I seriously wonder if these people think they are fine, because the one thing I learned as a personal trainer is your average person thinks they have a healthy diet, even some people with some really, really poor diets honestly. It seems like 2/3rds of people in middle age would fall into a risk group.
Pissed
I hate tax season more and more every yr
Hey Heisenberg, I wanted to know the source you used for the table. Its very interesting and troubling and I water to look over the source before I discussed it with others.
Thanks
[quote] In comment 14837560 bw in dc said:
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available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
I usually keep 1000 rounds on hand, I have 5000 now. If that makes me guilty of hoarding I apologize. There was probably 5 million rounds in the store where I bought it before this blew up, just felt like I should have more.
Why?
will probably go into disaster mode next week (like if there was an earthquake of course she is on hayward fault which is right under the hospital)
SHE IS A PEDIATRICIAN BUT THEY ARE PLANNING EVERYONE WORKING 12 HR SHIFTS 24 HRS A DAY
they are hopeful we didnt act too late but figure we will know within 2 weeks
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In comment 14837736 Zeke's Alibi said:
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since that is never going to happen the grocery stores need to enable rationing. Everything is going to sell anyway, but I now have to make twice as many trips to the grocery store than usual because they never have anything. They already started with the ground beef, but shit I'm about to run out of paper towels. Guess I won't be disenfecting shit pretty soon.
You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.
Rationing would result in riots. The better bet is to make sure the supply chain remains in tact (your state or the gov) and if you miss out on the food, get there first tomorrow. Making 2 trips to the store when you are already home all day from work (maybe you aren’t but most are) doesn’t seem like a big deal.
Rationing isn't resulting in riots anywhere else they are doing it. I just got off a demo with someone in Australia and many places started to ration toilet paper and paper towels. Lots of people are buying supplies for a months, when they'll inevitably be at the grocery store within a week or two because they forgot something or need produce. The supply chain isn't designated for that.
And I already talked to the manager at Publix, produce is gone by 9 am but trucks are running late all over the place for other stuff. Rice and Pasta were completely gone. And honestly the grocery store is one of the few places I want to go right now. I was actually surprised they had no easy access to wipes for carts.
I honestly would like to limit with trips to the grocery store because it is really the only place I'm directly in contact with many of these people in these risk groups. And it's really the only place they should be in public if no choice. I actually was looking around at the population and there were a ton of middle age people there, mostly unfit, with I'm sure underlying health conditions they probably have no idea about. I seriously wonder if these people think they are fine, because the one thing I learned as a personal trainer is your average person thinks they have a healthy diet, even some people with some really, really poor diets honestly. It seems like 2/3rds of people in middle age would fall into a risk group.
I guess it is better business for them to allow people to buy 6 of everything so that the customers that waited in line for an hour just to get in have nothing to purchase.
Even with a basic citywide quarantine, there are people out there who will wake up in a month with more toilet paper, paper towels, pasta, etc. than they know what to do with, while other families (like mine) will be scrounging for what they need. It's really disgusting.
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In comment 14837792 UConn4523 said:
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In comment 14837736 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
since that is never going to happen the grocery stores need to enable rationing. Everything is going to sell anyway, but I now have to make twice as many trips to the grocery store than usual because they never have anything. They already started with the ground beef, but shit I'm about to run out of paper towels. Guess I won't be disenfecting shit pretty soon.
You don’t need paper towels to disinfect. You can spray, wipe down with a towel, and then wash your towels. You can shit that way too.
Rationing would result in riots. The better bet is to make sure the supply chain remains in tact (your state or the gov) and if you miss out on the food, get there first tomorrow. Making 2 trips to the store when you are already home all day from work (maybe you aren’t but most are) doesn’t seem like a big deal.
Rationing isn't resulting in riots anywhere else they are doing it. I just got off a demo with someone in Australia and many places started to ration toilet paper and paper towels. Lots of people are buying supplies for a months, when they'll inevitably be at the grocery store within a week or two because they forgot something or need produce. The supply chain isn't designated for that.
And I already talked to the manager at Publix, produce is gone by 9 am but trucks are running late all over the place for other stuff. Rice and Pasta were completely gone. And honestly the grocery store is one of the few places I want to go right now. I was actually surprised they had no easy access to wipes for carts.
I honestly would like to limit with trips to the grocery store because it is really the only place I'm directly in contact with many of these people in these risk groups. And it's really the only place they should be in public if no choice. I actually was looking around at the population and there were a ton of middle age people there, mostly unfit, with I'm sure underlying health conditions they probably have no idea about. I seriously wonder if these people think they are fine, because the one thing I learned as a personal trainer is your average person thinks they have a healthy diet, even some people with some really, really poor diets honestly. It seems like 2/3rds of people in middle age would fall into a risk group.
I asked the manager at Trader Joe's if they would consider rationing. She looked at me like I was crazy and then nastily said it wouldn't be right for them to tell anyone what they can and can't buy.
I guess it is better business for them to allow people to buy 6 of everything so that the customers that waited in line for an hour just to get in have nothing to purchase.
Even with a basic citywide quarantine, there are people out there who will wake up in a month with more toilet paper, paper towels, pasta, etc. than they know what to do with, while other families (like mine) will be scrounging for what they need. It's really disgusting.
'm already spending significantly more in groceries because I'm buying a bunch of exotic and expensive fruit, leg of lamb from Publix instead of Costco (feel like a trip there will just be a waste when they are probably out of half the shit I buy), and the most expensive frozen veggies. Although I think I'm fortunate I was able to score stuff for the week on Friday night in a hidden freezer it seemed.
Also that store manager is so full of shit, they are all secretly loving it right now because their profits are skyrocketing. The one manager at Publix seemed like she was enjoying herself, probably a combo of the entertainment value, her being young and looked healthy, and record profits.
It also seems to me that due to the fact that it can just sit on surfaces for days the grocery doesn't seem all that much safer than take out or eating out. Someone grabs a box, puts it back on the shelf, you grab the box, put it in the cupboard for a couple days, a few people in the household grab it, one manages to get it in their mouth and boom everyone is infected. I mean more people at the grocery store may have contact with the food you bought then ordering out or whatever people normally do.
Springbreak
I was talking about it with my buddy who I lived with in St. Pete Beach who still lives there. St Pete just enacted curfew but the beaches are going to fight tooth and nail. This is the busiest season for them. He manages a large chain surf shop and he doesn't think they'll end up setting up curfew for the beach. Too important to the lifeline of the beaches. I agreed with the sentiment, but I told him Clearwater is literally getting shamed online right now. The pressure will be to immense.
I think what you are seeing right now is all the kids that came down here friday/saturday can't just go home and they are already here. The next weekend will be a ton less because their parents who are generally paying for this probably will cut off the funds.
People really need to take this seriously.
Some people really need to take a deep breath. Beyond washing your hands, separating yourself as much as possible, eating and sleeping well... everything else is beyond your control. What good does it do to think like this?
And losing 0.7% of the world's population, with call it 70% of that ages 65+... isnt going to destroy the global economy for years. You're getting yourself all worked up and its helping no one.
Why would guns/ammo be in demand?
As a European I find it fascinating/interesting in a funny way that
you guys need guns?
Is it for fun/sport/recreational use or are you guys really thinking that this could
turn into a situation where guns could be needed?
... and yes I know about the second amendment.
If those that did not prepare properly decide to go shopping in neighbors homes, there is a need for protection. Did you see the videos of the streets of LA after the Rodney King verdict?
When the masses lose their shit, it’s more deadly than this virus. I’m glad I’ve been somewhat of a prepper my whole life. Now all the equipment I have is serving it’s purpose and not just an asset depreciating in a locked area.
Mocking people that think have protection is of importance seems a bit shortsighted considering the uncharted territory we are in at this time in our planets history.
I’ll also add, your European citizens have a very different mindset on average then Americans.
You know how they always say “In case of fire, do not panic, WALK to your nearest exit.” That is the way we should be behaving on a macro level right now. We don’t have zombies running the streets eating people’s brains. Our biggest issue is our own reaction to this. We are our own virus. We must contain ourselves and let the professionals get this figured out.
The economy is of concern no doubt. But everyone is suffering the same shitty market. So we will all reap the benefits from a massive rebound that comes when we get this under control. Focus on living your safest life for now, and stop with the panic.
SFGF, that’s my biggest concern. The hypochondriacs, worry worts, and low information citizens. They will rush to the hospital at the first sneeze or cough. On top of them wasting valuable time and effort of our first line of defense and our greatest resource, they are preventing others who truly need it from care, AND actually exposing themselves to the real virus. Only to turn around and be sent home because they don’t have it. Or I should say didn’t have it, until they showed up at ground zero. And then they go back into the public and actually spread the damn thing.
There really should be PSAs regularly that tell people when they should think about going to the ER. We are our own worst enemy in this situation. If we can be calm and resolute we will be fine. If we panic we are going to make this a whole lot worse then it has to be.
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The worried well is the group that concerns me. The people who have a minor cold, but fear they have COVID-19 & just overwhelm the hospitals.
SFGF, that’s my biggest concern. The hypochondriacs, worry worts, and low information citizens. They will rush to the hospital at the first sneeze or cough. On top of them wasting valuable time and effort of our first line of defense and our greatest resource, they are preventing others who truly need it from care, AND actually exposing themselves to the real virus. Only to turn around and be sent home because they don’t have it. Or I should say didn’t have it, until they showed up at ground zero. And then they go back into the public and actually spread the damn thing.
There really should be PSAs regularly that tell people when they should think about going to the ER. We are our own worst enemy in this situation. If we can be calm and resolute we will be fine. If we panic we are going to make this a whole lot worse then it has to be.
that is why thr drive up testing is so important, if you really want to know, go to your personal doctor get a referral and go get tested..
if you have no symptomdls or even mild symptoms do not go to the hospital
People really need to take this seriously.
I 100% agree
The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
For many people, especially the uninsured, they have no primary care physician. Showing up to an ER is the only way theyll get treatment bc they know they wont be turned away. Not justifying, rationalizing, or making it political, just explaining why it happens even absent a health crisis. I work in a hospital in a low income neighborhood, our ER is always busy and is notoriously misused. Once this thing spikes its going to be a warzone.
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that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
For many people, especially the uninsured, they have no primary care physician. Showing up to an ER is the only way theyll get treatment bc they know they wont be turned away. Not justifying, rationalizing, or making it political, just explaining why it happens even absent a health crisis. I work in a hospital in a low income neighborhood, our ER is always busy and is notoriously misused. Once this thing spikes its going to be a warzone.
I wasn't making the point about the ER, even the doctors office in general. I wouldn't be going unless I thought it was likely I had it. His point was people flooding all healthcare systems with allergies, a minor symptoms that turn out not to COVID, and healthy people all of a sudden catching it from being in contact without it all over the place from not being trained healthcare workers.
I had no healthcare for a while and I know the last damn place I'd go is the ER unless it was likely I had because of the risks of contracting it there. No way I'm running there while I have mild symptoms to get tested, just self quarantine and if things start to turn for the worse head to the hospital. Honestly just like the flu.
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In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
For many people, especially the uninsured, they have no primary care physician. Showing up to an ER is the only way theyll get treatment bc they know they wont be turned away. Not justifying, rationalizing, or making it political, just explaining why it happens even absent a health crisis. I work in a hospital in a low income neighborhood, our ER is always busy and is notoriously misused. Once this thing spikes its going to be a warzone.
I wasn't making the point about the ER, even the doctors office in general. I wouldn't be going unless I thought it was likely I had it. His point was people flooding all healthcare systems with allergies, a minor symptoms that turn out not to COVID, and healthy people all of a sudden catching it from being in contact without it all over the place from not being trained healthcare workers.
I had no healthcare for a while and I know the last damn place I'd go is the ER unless it was likely I had because of the risks of contracting it there. No way I'm running there while I have mild symptoms to get tested, just self quarantine and if things start to turn for the worse head to the hospital. Honestly just like the flu.
Well youre talking about making decisions based on logic and reason as opposed to fear.
Historically, as a race, this is not our strong suit...
aka flights.
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In comment 14838147 j_rud said:
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In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
For many people, especially the uninsured, they have no primary care physician. Showing up to an ER is the only way theyll get treatment bc they know they wont be turned away. Not justifying, rationalizing, or making it political, just explaining why it happens even absent a health crisis. I work in a hospital in a low income neighborhood, our ER is always busy and is notoriously misused. Once this thing spikes its going to be a warzone.
I wasn't making the point about the ER, even the doctors office in general. I wouldn't be going unless I thought it was likely I had it. His point was people flooding all healthcare systems with allergies, a minor symptoms that turn out not to COVID, and healthy people all of a sudden catching it from being in contact without it all over the place from not being trained healthcare workers.
I had no healthcare for a while and I know the last damn place I'd go is the ER unless it was likely I had because of the risks of contracting it there. No way I'm running there while I have mild symptoms to get tested, just self quarantine and if things start to turn for the worse head to the hospital. Honestly just like the flu.
Well youre talking about making decisions based on logic and reason as opposed to fear.
Historically, as a race, this is not our strong suit...
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that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
No, I don't think that is what people think.
You get a high fever and slowly choke to death over several days.
That isn't much comfort for people.
And before you say that only old people get that kind of response, (fyi, my 82 year old mother is sitting next me), They say that 80% have mild to no symptoms... However, they also say that 50% develop pneumonia and need to be hospitalized for some period of time. That means that of that 3 out of 8 of those "mild" cases develop pneumonia and need some hospital treatment. Of the other 20% with severe symptoms, 3/4 (about 12 - 15% of all cases) of them need intensive care with oxygen or a ventilator. People who need hospitalization require it from 4 to 8 weeks. Lets use 5.
Lets game this out now that we know what it takes to deal with the patients...
Experts are estimating that 40% - 70% of the US population will contract this disease. Lets use 55%... With 380million inhabitants of the US, that means that almost 200million will get sick. But not all at once, I won't bore you with some of the math, but without draconian social distancing measures, the disease will take approximately 120 to rise, peak, and fall. The graph of this is called a normal distribution, I won't bore you with the detailed math, but it turns out 1 standard deviation is about 18 days. That means that the area under the curve 18 days on either side of the peak represents about 68% of the total. This lines up well with period of time people will be sick in the hospital (on average about 35 days). So lets make the mat easy and say that 2 out of every 3 people who need hospitalization will need it during the peak.
Now we can calculate the burden on the healthcare system.
200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.
200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.
To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.
Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.
And people say its just like the flu.
I've always liked to be over prepared for things whether it be a day trip, a tail gate party or a crisis. Having my girlfriend as a stage 4 cancer patient with no immune system coming off major surgeries our prospective has been different. As of now we have months of supplies of stuff we like and will use anyways. Vacuum sealed and stored properly. Thanks to info in these threads we reached out to her doctors and have 2-3 months extra of all of her meds, great advice. For me all of the preps are little insurance policies.
That all said and I'd love to talk preps, I really only responded after reading Koldegaards perspective from Europe. I'm FAR from a gun nut, mine stay put up and are really just for emergencies. Before the hurricane 2 years ago I hadn't touched my guns since I moved into this house 10 yrs ago. But looking back over history seeing how some countries just invade other countries wouldn't it make sense to have an armed population? I think that is built into American psyche. What would you do if you heard someone coming into your house one night? Not trying to be snarky or "'merica" just understanding that perspective.
It's not something I constantly worry about, in fact I rarely think about them, but I know they're there even though I would hate to actually use one. I very rarely use my chain saw, blow torch or turkey frier but I have them. They too are dangerous if used the wrong way. Anyways here is to wishing the best to you all, I hope you stay safe and things get back to normal soon. Let's come together as good Americans, support each other even if you don't agree, and let's get through this.
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that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
Hey Bradshaw44.. still think Ebola is more dangerous to you personally as you fought with me 5 weeks ago?
I have some mild respiratory symptoms and hoping it's nothing. No fever.
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In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
No, I don't think that is what people think.
You get a high fever and slowly choke to death over several days.
That isn't much comfort for people.
And before you say that only old people get that kind of response, (fyi, my 82 year old mother is sitting next me), They say that 80% have mild to no symptoms... However, they also say that 50% develop pneumonia and need to be hospitalized for some period of time. That means that of that 3 out of 8 of those "mild" cases develop pneumonia and need some hospital treatment. Of the other 20% with severe symptoms, 3/4 (about 12 - 15% of all cases) of them need intensive care with oxygen or a ventilator. People who need hospitalization require it from 4 to 8 weeks. Lets use 5.
Lets game this out now that we know what it takes to deal with the patients...
Experts are estimating that 40% - 70% of the US population will contract this disease. Lets use 55%... With 380million inhabitants of the US, that means that almost 200million will get sick. But not all at once, I won't bore you with some of the math, but without draconian social distancing measures, the disease will take approximately 120 to rise, peak, and fall. The graph of this is called a normal distribution, I won't bore you with the detailed math, but it turns out 1 standard deviation is about 18 days. That means that the area under the curve 18 days on either side of the peak represents about 68% of the total. This lines up well with period of time people will be sick in the hospital (on average about 35 days). So lets make the mat easy and say that 2 out of every 3 people who need hospitalization will need it during the peak.
Now we can calculate the burden on the healthcare system.
200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.
200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.
To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.
Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.
And people say its just like the flu.
I did all this math for everyone in late January. I was roundly laughed at. I'm at home with some mild respiratory problems. No fever. But some people just will not accept math unless people die. Very sad.
Florida is open for business and until they are forced to stop the people will keep coming. So many of them I see are celebrating like they won "the virus is bullshit" Superbowl. There are plenty of locals who feel that way too though but that is changing. I try not to get upset about it or take sides because there is nothing I can do or say to change the masses. I can just prepare and cover our asses :)
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In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
No, I don't think that is what people think.
You get a high fever and slowly choke to death over several days.
That isn't much comfort for people.
And before you say that only old people get that kind of response, (fyi, my 82 year old mother is sitting next me), They say that 80% have mild to no symptoms... However, they also say that 50% develop pneumonia and need to be hospitalized for some period of time. That means that of that 3 out of 8 of those "mild" cases develop pneumonia and need some hospital treatment. Of the other 20% with severe symptoms, 3/4 (about 12 - 15% of all cases) of them need intensive care with oxygen or a ventilator. People who need hospitalization require it from 4 to 8 weeks. Lets use 5.
Lets game this out now that we know what it takes to deal with the patients...
Experts are estimating that 40% - 70% of the US population will contract this disease. Lets use 55%... With 380million inhabitants of the US, that means that almost 200million will get sick. But not all at once, I won't bore you with some of the math, but without draconian social distancing measures, the disease will take approximately 120 to rise, peak, and fall. The graph of this is called a normal distribution, I won't bore you with the detailed math, but it turns out 1 standard deviation is about 18 days. That means that the area under the curve 18 days on either side of the peak represents about 68% of the total. This lines up well with period of time people will be sick in the hospital (on average about 35 days). So lets make the mat easy and say that 2 out of every 3 people who need hospitalization will need it during the peak.
Now we can calculate the burden on the healthcare system.
200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.
200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.
To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.
Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.
And people say its just like the flu.
In the attached, updated as of yesterday, they estimate a hospitalization rate of 4.4% averaged across age groups, and assume 30% of those hospitalized will then require critical care (30% of 4.4%). Including those needing critical care, they estimate an average hospital stay of 10.4 days (8 days for non-critical, 16 for critical). Still a massive strain on the hospital system.
Without containment measures (which are now rapidly being put in place) they estimate 2.2mm Americans dead, with upside to that figure based upon health system overload. Even with realistically effective mitigation strategies enacted they project 1.2mm Americans dead. Certainly not the flu, but still not 100mm Americans requiring hospital stays, if these projections are to be believed.
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team - ( New Window )
Let's look at Italy's numbers right now:
27,980 cases
2,158 dead
2,749 recovered
~ 23,000 active
over 11,000 hospitalized
~ 2,000 in intensive care
I have read elsewhere that in the hardest hit area, Italy is out of ICU beds, and that there are about another 1000 patients that should be in ICU but there is nothing available for them.
Those numbers are close to my estimates. And Italy's situation is worsening.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-cities-close-public-buildings-global-n1160106/ncrd1160691#liveBlogHeader
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/487888-more-than-half-of-french-icu-patients-with
worse in the Netherlands, half are under age 50:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/coronavirus-half-of-dutch-intensive-care-patients-are-under-50/
20% need significant hospital care, not intensive.
12 - 14% need intensive. 5 weeks seems to be the average hospital time in either case. But in the end, if you need significant hospital care, there will be no resources available to save you.
I suppose it is possible that this is all a mass, global, overreaction, even then it was the fear of the virus that drove it, so the virus is still dictating world events.
The main risk it seems all along is the overwhelming of the medical system. The governor of NY has said daily now for almost a week that this wave of critical virus patients will overwhelm the the hospital. The mayor of NYC outlined a plan to commandeer empty, yet to open, or less filled medical facilities to add 5000 plus beds to the medical capacity of the city, and still more must be done. Is this being done for shits and giggles? They believe there will be a desperate need, and soon. Again, maybe they are wrong. But, what is driving this is this novel virus and it's deadly impact for many. My conclusion is still that the virus is in control. Human agency can wrest it back, and will, the cost, loss and overall impact is still to be determined.
For now, the virus is in the catbird seat.
Never seen anything like this. Sandy knocked our entire front windows out completely and we boarded up and opened next day. This though is unprecedented.
Hopefully we kill this thing before it kills us financially or physically.
Never seen anything like this. Sandy knocked our entire front windows out completely and we boarded up and opened next day. This though is unprecedented.
Hopefully we kill this thing before it kills us financially or physically.
That really sucks matty, good luck to you.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/australian-infectious-disease-expert-we-may-have-a-cure-for-coronavirus?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dwbrand - ( New Window )
Loading up on Vitamin D to strengthen their immune systems from viruses.
Today I have a strong immune system and take precautions:
-I do not stress or FEAR (stop watching the news so much...)
-I wash my hands with organic soap and don't touch my face
-I clean my tongue and rinse first thing in morning and between meals
-I eat clean, organic, highly nutritious foods and drinks
-I drink clean water
-I eat organic fermented foods like kimchi and sauerkraut
-I take liposomal glutathione, vit c and vit d/k2
I can go on and on but will just add I am blessed to have an infrared sauna which heats to 160 degrees. I bought it because of my detoxification issues and (theoretically) 30 minutes of sweating in it should kill any and all viruses.
sleep, exercise, pray, meditate, journal, sunlight, nature walks, sex, love, caring for others - turn this negative into a positive.
Today I have a strong immune system and take precautions:
-I do not stress or FEAR (stop watching the news so much...)
-I wash my hands with organic soap and don't touch my face
-I clean my tongue and rinse first thing in morning and between meals
-I eat clean, organic, highly nutritious foods and drinks
-I drink clean water
-I eat organic fermented foods like kimchi and sauerkraut
-I take liposomal glutathione, vit c and vit d/k2
I can go on and on but will just add I am blessed to have an infrared sauna which heats to 160 degrees. I bought it because of my detoxification issues and (theoretically) 30 minutes of sweating in it should kill any and all viruses.
sleep, exercise, pray, meditate, journal, sunlight, nature walks, sex, love, caring for others - turn this negative into a positive.
👍
If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.
Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?
If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.
Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?
100% accuracy on this
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In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
Hey Bradshaw44.. still think Ebola is more dangerous to you personally as you fought with me 5 weeks ago?
I have some mild respiratory symptoms and hoping it's nothing. No fever.
Yes I do.
If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.
Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?
it makes no sense, if the number is higher than what people are reporting, woukdnt there be more deaths? and if people are seriously sick they woukd be going to the hospital and in turn make the number hire of positive tests...
When world wide testing officially starts, the number will get hire sure but why eould the number of deaths skyrocket?
yeah it is timr to unplug, my sister is a teacher and is going nuts at home, her fiance works in the city and she is freaking out...i told her unplug stop watching the tv
Surprised you're not bunkered in with your 6 pack of Troegs.
I don't mind some anecdotes though, helps add additional data point, only who the F knows what is real vs made up.
I'll tell you what i really don't need. And that is to know the corporate COVID-19 policy for every single corporation, retail establishment or website I've ever given an email address to.
I don't mind some anecdotes though, helps add additional data point, only who the F knows what is real vs made up.
I'll tell you what i really don't need. And that is to know the corporate COVID-19 policy for every single corporation, retail establishment or website I've ever given an email address to.
What, you didn't like the corporate notices from Draft Kings, Fan Duel, Angie's list and Bed Bath and Beyond???
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would probably result in a lower morality rate. Then again, everyone has become an infectious disease analyst in the last couple of weeks so who knows?
yeah it is timr to unplug, my sister is a teacher and is going nuts at home, her fiance works in the city and she is freaking out...i told her unplug stop watching the tv
Yeah, I've stopped watching MSNBC and CNN. Last night I watched NBA TV & they showed Game 5 of the '14 Finals. It was a nice distraction, that & NFL FA.
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In comment 14838661 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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would probably result in a lower morality rate. Then again, everyone has become an infectious disease analyst in the last couple of weeks so who knows?
yeah it is timr to unplug, my sister is a teacher and is going nuts at home, her fiance works in the city and she is freaking out...i told her unplug stop watching the tv
Yeah, I've stopped watching MSNBC and CNN. Last night I watched NBA TV & they showed Game 5 of the '14 Finals. It was a nice distraction, that & NFL FA.
yeah nfl was a great distraction
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fatality rate (as of this morning) under 2%. Most expect it is actually lower than 2% since testing has been limited and that's only based on confirmed cases AFAIK.
If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.
Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?
it makes no sense, if the number is higher than what people are reporting, woukdnt there be more deaths? and if people are seriously sick they woukd be going to the hospital and in turn make the number hire of positive tests...
When world wide testing officially starts, the number will get hire sure but why eould the number of deaths skyrocket?
That is why to me looking at other numbers outside of SK's is a fools errand. They are they only country in place that had testing system in place that was likely to test most cases. Even there's are likely to be slightly underestimated because they have stipulation in place who can get tested, although that number is probably marginal. And the numbers we have from there says it has a mortality rate of 1 percent. Same number that Fauci put out a week ago.
Still fucking terrible, but there are people throwing out numbers that have so little context.
Come on man, you can’t tease us like that. Post it!
I state "theoretically" because to my knowledge there are no known viable medical studies, just logic being employed.
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but lord knows if I post it riots will ensue
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is bullshit. Yeah it will kill viruses on your skin, but that is nothing a shower won't do.
An infrared sauna's dry heat, say 155 degrees, helps (theoretically) kill the virus on your skin and in your lungs and mouth as well. I presume you are speaking of Joe Rogan?
I state "theoretically" because to my knowledge there are no known viable medical studies, just logic being employed.
It actually blew my mind that so many people believe the air going into your lungs is 155 degrees. That would instantly kill you. The virus expert explained the ins and outs of why the air cools down before it gets close to your lungs.
@BillNeelyNBC
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16h
BREAKING: The entire UK strategy for fighting #coronavirus was based on false analysis. Scientists advising the Gov’t now say the UK only realised "in the last few days" that its Coronavirus strategy would "likely result In hundreds of thousands of deaths"
If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.
Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?
shhh PJ... .McL wants us to believe the mortality rate is 7%+. 2x what the WHO is saying and 7x what Dr Fauci has estimated. I imagine his poor 82 year old mother sitting next to him these days wants to off her poor self by now.
Also keeps pointing to France and Netherlands ... first France said under 65, not 60... second, only 10% of their deaths to date have been ages under 60 or 65.
The disease is no joke - 99% of EVERYONE HERE ALREADY KNOWS THIS.
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In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
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that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
No, I don't think that is what people think.
You get a high fever and slowly choke to death over several days.
That isn't much comfort for people.
And before you say that only old people get that kind of response, (fyi, my 82 year old mother is sitting next me), They say that 80% have mild to no symptoms... However, they also say that 50% develop pneumonia and need to be hospitalized for some period of time. That means that of that 3 out of 8 of those "mild" cases develop pneumonia and need some hospital treatment. Of the other 20% with severe symptoms, 3/4 (about 12 - 15% of all cases) of them need intensive care with oxygen or a ventilator. People who need hospitalization require it from 4 to 8 weeks. Lets use 5.
Lets game this out now that we know what it takes to deal with the patients...
Experts are estimating that 40% - 70% of the US population will contract this disease. Lets use 55%... With 380million inhabitants of the US, that means that almost 200million will get sick. But not all at once, I won't bore you with some of the math, but without draconian social distancing measures, the disease will take approximately 120 to rise, peak, and fall. The graph of this is called a normal distribution, I won't bore you with the detailed math, but it turns out 1 standard deviation is about 18 days. That means that the area under the curve 18 days on either side of the peak represents about 68% of the total. This lines up well with period of time people will be sick in the hospital (on average about 35 days). So lets make the mat easy and say that 2 out of every 3 people who need hospitalization will need it during the peak.
Now we can calculate the burden on the healthcare system.
200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.
200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.
To be clear, these are the ramification without draconian social distancing. We can reduce this burden drastically with measures similar to China. There are also some other mitigations coming. There seem to be some anti-viral drug cocktails that have helped. There are other treatments like antibody rich plasma treatments from recovered patients and probably others. If we are smart, and diligent we can avoid the worst case scenario above. So far we haven't gotten there yet.
Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.
And people say its just like the flu.
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In comment 14838702 UConn4523 said:
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but lord knows if I post it riots will ensue
I believe strongly in cleaning your mouth & tongue FIRST THING in the morning and after contact with others. Bacteria and the like fester in your mouth so removing them in the morning and drinking very warm water first thing could potentially be a very good idea for helping with all health issues and immunity.
I wonder if nasal irrigation with one of those Neti pots could help as I read that the coronavirus first gets in your nasal passages. Even if it doesn't completely prevent the disease, maybe it can lessen the effects of it.
I think we can all agree that there is nothing inherently wrong with implementing safety measures designed to limit the spread of any virus. let alone the corona virus in order to reduce the number of deaths and to reduce the burden on the ability of the health care system to deal effectively with any epidemic.
On the other hand, I don't think you should downplay the impact such measures have on the public or overlook that these measures being taken are unprecedented. We have had epidemics before in this country such as measles, polio, cholera, tuberculosis, small pox, etc. But, we have never shut down the economy. For anyone who has lost their jobs or homes, I think they can understand just how traumatic that also is and sometimes, that ends in suicide.
The history of the birth of our country was founded upon the right to the pursuit of happiness. At some point in our history, the American people reached a breaking-point and made a choice to go to war. "Give me liberty or give me death!" I think this epidemic has a similar ring to it!
Obviously, not everyone wanted to go to war. Those who didn't think it was wise to do so were labeled as "sympathizers" or "traitors". There is no doubt our country was in a moral dilemma as to what was the right course of action to take. For those who felt it was best to go to war, the way to silence those of a different opinion was to label them.
To me there is no easy black and white. Can we all not understand that it is a good thing to implement sensible restrictions for the good of the people? Vice-versa, why can we not understand that it is also a bad thing to not continue our lives in the manner to which we are accustomed?
Those two sides of this equation are like being on a teeter-totter. Right now the heavier weight lies with the protection of our physical beings. But, if these measures last too long, I can also see that the other side of the teeter-totter, the side that deals with our emotional health will start to gain weight and credence.
Unfortunately I don't think thats the case. Look at the morons filling the beaches in Florida or packing the bars this past weekend.
People are still downplaying this which is truly unbelievable at this point.
On Netherlands - another scare tactic linked above - almost all of their deaths to date are ages 70%+, and they only have 50 people total in their country in ICU currently. So ~25 people total under 50 yrs old in ICU right now. Thats quite obviously just not nearly enough of a sample size yet.
Again, the disease is very serious... but 7% of people are going to die? Honestly, politely step away from the ledge and fuck off.
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In comment 14838611 pjcas18 said:
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fatality rate (as of this morning) under 2%. Most expect it is actually lower than 2% since testing has been limited and that's only based on confirmed cases AFAIK.
If as people speculate, US is on the Italy curve, wasn't Italy already at 6% or so at this point.
Is the US fatality rate expected to increase?
it makes no sense, if the number is higher than what people are reporting, woukdnt there be more deaths? and if people are seriously sick they woukd be going to the hospital and in turn make the number hire of positive tests...
When world wide testing officially starts, the number will get hire sure but why eould the number of deaths skyrocket?
That is why to me looking at other numbers outside of SK's is a fools errand. They are they only country in place that had testing system in place that was likely to test most cases. Even there's are likely to be slightly underestimated because they have stipulation in place who can get tested, although that number is probably marginal. And the numbers we have from there says it has a mortality rate of 1 percent. Same number that Fauci put out a week ago.
Still fucking terrible, but there are people throwing out numbers that have so little context.
This would assume that the detection/isolation/treatment strategies of the SK folks, along with them remaining under their capacity does not affect the mortality rate. Not to mention any demographic differences that might be in play. Each data point has value and context and it's wishful thinking to say that their data point is somehow more valuable than any other.
I respect him too... its a tough, uncertain, unsettling time for everyone, and people are bound to get emotional. The 0.7% mortality rate on a 8 billion population he throws out there assumes social distancing doesnt work at all and no one globally can come up with any type of vaccine that even if imperfect keeps people alive.
I'll be more optimistic. But .McLs 7% mortality rate based on circumstantial bullshit helps no one.
Unfortunately I don't think thats the case. Look at the morons filling the beaches in Florida or packing the bars this past weekend.
People are still downplaying this which is truly unbelievable at this point. [/quote]
There are many who refuse to wear seat belts and still smoke and chew tobacco so there will be those who blow off taking any precautions for this virus. That is the reality. However, there are many more who did change their behavior regarding seat belts and smoking. Ergo, there will be many more who will take precautions and lower the curve. I am also optimistic that the weather change will impact this virus like it does most viruses, i.e., for the benefit of people in the Northern hemisphere.
It was reported this morning that Wuhan is coming back online (so to speak) regarding manufacturing so that seems like a big positive to me.
Normally, I can walk around and live on the Earth and ignore the stupid. I trained myself, I have been doing it since I was 4 years old. This last week, I have zero tolerance for stupid. The contempt I have for the people that ignore this, mocking me and saying this was less dangerous than the flu when we had case studies in other countries to tell us EXACTLY what this was...I really try not to hate, but fuck. Stupid, will end up being the end of us all. We are lucky this was not more deadly or we would all be dead. We MUST take things more seriously next time or we might not have future. This was our wake up call. A pandemic is the most likely end to civilization as we know it. We need to be a lot more prepared. A for profit health system, will NEVER build enough capacity to care for a pandemic. It is not profitable. We should be building a giant hospital in NY right NOW! Yester fucking day.
We'll get through this but it's going to be very sticky. And like you suggest, let's hope it leads to a complete re-evaluation with how we monitor, prepare, and respond going forward.
I follow worldwide disease closely. Bird Flu is the one to worry about. Asia continues to have very substandard oversight in their meat markets. And Bird Flu continues to grow in the chicken and duck populations over there. God forbid that morphs into a more contractible disease...the death rate will be extraordinary.
I'm all for ramping up funding for more R&D to get vaccines to head of these human killers...
On Netherlands - another scare tactic linked above - almost all of their deaths to date are ages 70%+, and they only have 50 people total in their country in ICU currently. So ~25 people total under 50 yrs old in ICU right now. Thats quite obviously just not nearly enough of a sample size yet.
Again, the disease is very serious... but 7% of people are going to die? Honestly, politely step away from the ledge and fuck off.
This is what I don't get, the guy is a supposed analytics expert, but can't even spot the major problems with such a small sample size. I mean if it the first wave hit a middle aged population with lots of health factors, that easily explains the data.
I think about all the high school sports seasons lost. A senior trying to get drafted or go to a baseball school, season gone. Not that my son is a superstar or playing pro, but he made varsity as a freshman, cool and exciting, gone. Not as awesome being a sophomore playing varsity next year.
Even Germany looks like it's beginning to strain a bit under the sudden onslaught despite it's immense investment in healthcare resources.
Was surprised to see numbers for smaller countries like Malaysia, Portugal go up quite high (looked as if they had insulated themselves a bit, but suppose they are also testing more, which is a good thing.
I'm not sure what to expect when it comes to that eventual "first day back" to everything, and not just sports.
Will most people be like kids let out of school for summer vacation? Or will many people still be apprehensive about going out into crowds?
I'm inclined right now to think that we will return to social normalcy in gradual stages, instead of a "bust open the gates" approach.
Maybe the first sporting events will be held without attendance? Things like that.
I have no idea.
Missed it, but he's been a good leader so far throughout this. The 19% hospitalization rate is obviously a concerning headline but very few people can get tested so the affirmed cases are heavily weighted to the higher risk community and those showing significant symptoms. We still lack so much damn granular data to make sense of any of this.
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I'm not sure if this is allowed at this point but if any New Yorkers missed Cuomo's press conference this morning, it's worth going back and watching it. Very well put together and extremely well done and informative. And this is coming from someone who leans the other way.
Missed it, but he's been a good leader so far throughout this. The 19% hospitalization rate is obviously a concerning headline but very few people can get tested so the affirmed cases are heavily weighted to the higher risk community and those showing significant symptoms. We still lack so much damn granular data to make sense of any of this.
He's been on his brothers show most the week. I've been presently surprised by him, it seems like he's often portrayed as a buffoon. May be a buffoon I don't know, but he is exhibiting tremendous leadership abilities.
He's clearly also "leading" Lamont in CT and Murphy in NJ rightly or wrongly. He's kind of taken on a de facto Metro Area governor role or feel for the NY/NJ/CT area.
He's clearly also "leading" Lamont in CT and Murphy in NJ rightly or wrongly. He's kind of taken on a de facto Metro Area governor role or feel for the NY/NJ/CT area.
He just stated that the peak in NY will not be for another 45 days according to the data.
I feel like what we know about the timeline, that it is going to reach the worst of it in about 2 months, it will level out for a week weeks, and then decline, puts the NFL as the first major sporting event without restrictions. Opening week in the NFL is going to be bonanzas, even though the football that gets played will probably be garbage. Going to miss a lot of offseason time.
He's clearly also "leading" Lamont in CT and Murphy in NJ rightly or wrongly. He's kind of taken on a de facto Metro Area governor role or feel for the NY/NJ/CT area.
It's been years since I've lived in NJ and haven't really followed anything their politically, but Murphy does not inspire the same confidence as Cuomo, quite the opposite in fact imo.
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those of us discussing this every day now for months, and reading each others posts.
On Netherlands - another scare tactic linked above - almost all of their deaths to date are ages 70%+, and they only have 50 people total in their country in ICU currently. So ~25 people total under 50 yrs old in ICU right now. Thats quite obviously just not nearly enough of a sample size yet.
Again, the disease is very serious... but 7% of people are going to die? Honestly, politely step away from the ledge and fuck off.
This is what I don't get, the guy is a supposed analytics expert, but can't even spot the major problems with such a small sample size. I mean if it the first wave hit a middle aged population with lots of health factors, that easily explains the data.
The first mistake is thinking he's an analytics expert. He's a self-professed analytics expert, which is akin to American Idol auditionees saying they are vocal experts.
He's had so many times where his use of analytics is flat out incorrect (including using the term analytics to describe something other), that I'm surprised anyone has taken him seriously here.
It's on full display on the Coronavirus threads. The guy saw some numbers and actually said he made some "analytic projections", and then he spews out bullshit.
Keep that in mind the next time he talks about what the Giants are doing for analytics. He doesn't have a fucking clue.
FMiC, you were right on the money the other day when you said he plays fast and loose with his arguments.
I think this would give the American people more faith that the virus isn't this rabid killer and ease some of the anxiety...
Today I have a strong immune system and take precautions:
-I do not stress or FEAR (stop watching the news so much...)
-I wash my hands with organic soap and don't touch my face
-I clean my tongue and rinse first thing in morning and between meals
-I eat clean, organic, highly nutritious foods and drinks
-I drink clean water
-I eat organic fermented foods like kimchi and sauerkraut
-I take liposomal glutathione, vit c and vit d/k2
I can go on and on but will just add I am blessed to have an infrared sauna which heats to 160 degrees. I bought it because of my detoxification issues and (theoretically) 30 minutes of sweating in it should kill any and all viruses.
sleep, exercise, pray, meditate, journal, sunlight, nature walks, sex, love, caring for others - turn this negative into a positive.
lol
I think this would give the American people more faith that the virus isn't this rabid killer and ease some of the anxiety...
Just my personal perspective here, but I think that two things.
1. If they post stuff about how the fatality rate is lower than anticipated maybe then people would take it less seriously and prematurely end certain quarantine or lock down procedures that probably are influencing or keeping the fatality rate where it is.
2. I read a lot of people complaining about how late we are in our response. I do think we are late with some preparation like masks, ventilators, etc. but I think if authorities tried to enact certain measures too soon, before things blew up elsewhere they'd get very low compliance. So while I'm not saying so far our government actions were perfect, I feel at least some of the public criticisms are disingenuous and political.
I hope this works out to be less fatal than some of the models, but I think we're far from out of the woods. and I support the measures federal, state, and local governments have been enacting.
From what I see (anecdotally) across those three groups (federal, state and local) and across party lines, the response has been appropriate.
I grade our response as a community a far higher grade on taking this seriously and quickly adhering to grasp a new reality than I do on those who had access to experts over the last 2-3 months and could have been doing a better job educating the public on the seriousness of the situation.
We were very fortunate that Italy's poor response acted as an early warning system.
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In comment 14838143 bradshaw44 said:
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In comment 14838135 Zeke's Alibi said:
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that mirror a bunch of other stuff around right now. I'd have to be pretty damn sure I probably had it to go to hospital. Until then it would be self isolate, but more available testing would be great so I could know.
The reason the low information people and the hypochondriacs do this is from the hype around this thing. People think this is Ebola when it’s really just a flu like virus. It can kill just like the flu. But it’s not something out of the movies where you’ll have back breaking seizures and spit up your lungs right before you blow your asshole out. But thanks to the hype, that’s what these people think.
Hey Bradshaw44.. still think Ebola is more dangerous to you personally as you fought with me 5 weeks ago?
I have some mild respiratory symptoms and hoping it's nothing. No fever.
Yes I do.
Really? Well let me help you with this again. Unless you are a healthcare worker in central Africa during an Ebola outbreak or caring for a family member in central Africa during an outbreak you have a 0.0001% chance of ever encountering Ebola.
This virus you have a 70% chance of contracting (Harvard) and a 15% chance of requiring icu care. And before you tell me how young you are, in France 50% of icu patients are below 65. This virus is a far bigger threat to you personally than Ebola can ever be -- smh.
I grade our response as a community a far higher grade on taking this seriously and quickly adhering to grasp a new reality than I do on those who had access to experts over the last 2-3 months and could have been doing a better job educating the public on the seriousness of the situation.
We were very fortunate that Italy's poor response acted as an early warning system.
I don't have a good answer, other than look around the globe. You mentioned Italy. The UK's response seems worse even if they don't wind up with high fatality rates. Europe has become the epicenter. I trust nothing from China, so hard to know reality there, but everywhere you look I think only South Korea stands out as a model.
And with increased testing, maybe US fatality rate actually drops closer to South Korea instead of elevates to Italy.
Either, right now feels like the right thing even if we had some bumps getting here.
I mean, to this average person (me),I think when a pandemic hits it's because it's new. testing, understanding the virus behavior, vaccine and prevention, etc. I think take a while to figure out (at least I feel like it's understandable if it does take a while) so I don't have an expectation that anyone has all the answers early.
I didn't expect immediate answers with H1N1 (or SARS, etc.) nor do I with COVID-19.
Just have to hope the authorities have the right people advising and making decisions.
I grade our response as a community a far higher grade on taking this seriously and quickly adhering to grasp a new reality than I do on those who had access to experts over the last 2-3 months and could have been doing a better job educating the public on the seriousness of the situation.
We were very fortunate that Italy's poor response acted as an early warning system.
and btw, I say this as someone who has a family member in their 60's, with underlying conditions, who 1 week ago was planning to continue flying for work into hotspot cities, arguing that it was similar to the seasonal flu.
that same family member fortunately cancelled those trips, and also still ended up needing to get tested yesterday (with difficulties and results not expected for a few days).
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the complete opposite of what cuomo said
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would report stats more. Just basic intel - # of reported cases and the # of deaths. And show how the death rate is gradually dipping over time. Do it by age buckets, too.
I think this would give the American people more faith that the virus isn't this rabid killer and ease some of the anxiety...
Just my personal perspective here, but I think that two things.
1. If they post stuff about how the fatality rate is lower than anticipated maybe then people would take it less seriously and prematurely end certain quarantine or lock down procedures that probably are influencing or keeping the fatality rate where it is.
2. I read a lot of people complaining about how late we are in our response. I do think we are late with some preparation like masks, ventilators, etc. but I think if authorities tried to enact certain measures too soon, before things blew up elsewhere they'd get very low compliance. So while I'm not saying so far our government actions were perfect, I feel at least some of the public criticisms are disingenuous and political.
I hope this works out to be less fatal than some of the models, but I think we're far from out of the woods. and I support the measures federal, state, and local governments have been enacting.
From what I see (anecdotally) across those three groups (federal, state and local) and across party lines, the response has been appropriate.
I hear you on #1. But they could caveat the stats in a way where you downplay the results as early in the trend line and we still don't know where this virus is going to take us in the longrun.
On #2, I think this situation would be virtually impossible for ANY administration to handle. However, my opinion is they were very slow out of the gate and mismanaged the widespread threat from China. And that made it easier for the virus to enter and start to run here. We need to be better than that going forward.
Finally, and this is coming from a fairly staunch conservative, the message has been highly disjointed and really just piss-poor. There were some very faulty assumptions made that this was basically going to be like a storm front - come through, dump a lot of rain, and then head out to sea...
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is bullshit. Yeah it will kill viruses on your skin, but that is nothing a shower won't do.
An infrared sauna's dry heat, say 155 degrees, helps (theoretically) kill the virus on your skin and in your lungs and mouth as well. I presume you are speaking of Joe Rogan?
I state "theoretically" because to my knowledge there are no known viable medical studies, just logic being employed.
Must be nice living in fantasy land!
Word on the street is it is coming. I don't even know what that means exactly.
Word on the street is it is coming. I don't even know what that means exactly.
What does it mean? Go raid the liquor stores ASAP & hoard as much as you can dammit.
Means.
Link - ( New Window )
They've reported one of the highest # of cases and deaths proportionately today.
The exponential increases are slowing down which is good and shows that hard suppression and quarantine works, but they're just entering the incline of their curve still to the top (hopefully over this coming week or two).
The key is sustaining the hard suppression over several weeks (China showed how important this was, for if you leak or let up, it'll be a flood back to the mean if you will).
My heart breaks for them. Love Italy and the people are awesome and hysterical.
Spain looks like it's in for a rough two weeks ahead.
Italy - Worldometers Coronavirus Tracker - ( New Window )
on my left knee, that was canceled today. I am not that surprised, told my orthopedic's office,
I can wait six months. If it's an elective surgery, it will be canceled.
What's done is done. People were going to second guess the response no matter which administration (in something like this).
I'm really just looking forward and trying to maintain a positive outlook.
I don't consider myself conservative (well conservatives don't consider me a conservative - mostly because of most of my social views - and I don't care for any labels anyway, every issue I have different feelings about and like a lot of Genx my views from issue to issue conflict with mainstream ideologies), but it's irrelevant IMO I feel like no matter which party the president belonged to in a situation like this I'd hold my criticism and look for unity. It's the only way out of this IMO.
So instead of saying definitively the sky is falling we f'ed up our response or we were too late or whatever, I'm trying to live in the present and focus on the future.
Link - ( New Window )
So here in Connecticut there are over 200 nurses that are now furloughed because they may have been exposed and the GOVENOR has been unable to get tests for them. Let's make sure fucking basketball players all get a test!
Haha. I let mine grow out & no I doubt I'm getting one for awhile.
The first confirmed case was in Washington on January 19th from a man who came from Wuhan. So unless you live there its extremely, extremely unlikely.
yup, its why the aggregate mortality rates are completely useless. We have no idea what the damn denominator is. Right now its only counting for the most vulnerable and those showing clear and more moderate to worse symptoms (unless you're a celebrity or a professional sports player... then you seem to get a test easily)
On the other hand so many of the cases still have to be played out, and at least in the US, its still to new to have many official recoveries.
I get that it's serious. So is destroying an economy, which carries tremendous health risks. People without jobs, money, or options. Life goods not being produced. An entire society marketing, business, processing going on hold may end up being far worse than the flu.
The widescale scope of the containment efforts are unprecedented in my life time. Mistakes are going to be made. This may well be a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't, but I'm far more afraid of the containment efforts/effects than I am of the virus (and I'm borderline in the at risk group, and may have had the virus - or simply a common cold, who knows - last week after traveling through Portugal and several airports).
this could get ugly.
The virus is in control world events. If anyone said ten days ago NYC would be going into lockdown most would have thought they were nuts. Unless you were reading and learning about this pandemic from the jump. I do wonder why many decision makers and healthcare experts were not. Failure to test and screen will have a very high cost.
Tons of people on the beach (just saw it on TV).
In France, you need a permit to be walking around ...
[url]https://www.yahoo.com/news/french-people-ignored-officials-warnings-112634326.html[url]
What is says is that it's early in the crisis.
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and the bodies aren't piling up, what's that tell you?
What is says is that it's early in the crisis.
no it doesnt, you have no idea where we are in the process, if more people have it that have no synptoms than what is reported in means the mortality rate is much much lower than reported..
You habe no idea where we are in the process, no one does
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In comment 14839574 fkap said:
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and the bodies aren't piling up, what's that tell you?
What is says is that it's early in the crisis.
no it doesnt, you have no idea where we are in the process, if more people have it that have no synptoms than what is reported in means the mortality rate is much much lower than reported..
You habe no idea where we are in the process, no one does
WE don't know? Ask Italy.
The virus is in control world events. If anyone said ten days ago NYC would be going into lockdown most would have thought they were nuts. Unless you were reading and learning about this pandemic from the jump. I do wonder why many decision makers and healthcare experts were not. Failure to test and screen will have a very high cost.
First off new york is not going into lockdown..
Second if more people have this with no symtoms that sre not reportrd it means the death rate is much much lower..
Also if it has spread that much already, why are the hospitals not overrun yet?
you can not habe it both ways, you cant say it is already widespresd and also say the hospitals will br overrun soon..
but you are the same person eho called it a war and millions of people are going to die
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In comment 14839598 GiantEgo said:
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In comment 14839574 fkap said:
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and the bodies aren't piling up, what's that tell you?
What is says is that it's early in the crisis.
no it doesnt, you have no idea where we are in the process, if more people have it that have no synptoms than what is reported in means the mortality rate is much much lower than reported..
You habe no idea where we are in the process, no one does
WE don't know? Ask Italy.
do you have any idea why italy got so bad?
the truth is, we don't know what the truth is. We don't know how widespread it is, or how deadly it is.
I would think the virus was introduced into the country for weeks, or months. The period of action came quite late for containment purposes, so my own opinion is that IF it is as contagious as alleged, it should be widespread. There's probably some science on how contagious it is, but without knowing the numbers actually infected, the rest is speculation.
We'll eventually know more... in the meantime separate and isolate as much as you possibly fucking can, and wash hands.
The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Veran followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections.
My main point all along was this spreads and it causes double digit hospitalizations (young people included), and it makes health-care workers sick. Threat of overloading medical system, which is bad.
Cuomo has been on TV everyday for over a week using charts and Numbers and pictures to make this very point.
I never claimed millions dead and I think ny point on threat to healthcare system has been validated.
There's a region in Italy (I forget which) that contains a large population of Wuhan Chinese. They make inexpensive fashion accessories using materials made in China. They got so busy that they started a non-stop flight from Italy to Wuhan.
In news from the ROK (which everyone seems to see as the model for how to handle this thing) we're still getting cluster outbreaks. Most recently, we had one in a call center in Guro-gu, Seoul last week and another in a church in Seongnam, Seoul the other day.
See the connection? Avoid crowded places.
The ROK just shipped 51,000 test kits to the UAE.
I have also pointed out many times that the fatality rate depends on available medical care. I have said that SK mortality rate is going to about 1.3% because the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Italy is trending towards 7%. Honestly look at their numbers and tell me how you can estimate anything lower than 7%.
Guys, context is important. You are always taking what I say out of the context in which I said it and twist it.
You do it so much, and it is so deceptive, you guys are liars. The truth is in the posts.
and cuomo said that is not happening, it is his call not de blasio
There's a region in Italy (I forget which) that contains a large population of Wuhan Chinese. They make inexpensive fashion accessories using materials made in China. They got so busy that they started a non-stop flight from Italy to Wuhan.
In news from the ROK (which everyone seems to see as the model for how to handle this thing) we're still getting cluster outbreaks. Most recently, we had one in a call center in Guro-gu, Seoul last week and another in a church in Seongnam, Seoul the other day.
See the connection? Avoid crowded places.
The ROK just shipped 51,000 test kits to the UAE.
i know why italy got so bad
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The World Health Organization recommended Tuesday that people suffering COVID-19 symptoms avoid taking ibuprofen, after French officials warned that anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen effects of the virus.
The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Veran followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections.
Wonder what they recommend to deal with the fever part...
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literally said to prepare for shelter in.
and cuomo said that is not happening, it is his call not de blasio
missed that ok
well on the table at least
Ah, so it was a rhetorical question. My apologies.
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If diagnosed with the Coronavirus
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The World Health Organization recommended Tuesday that people suffering COVID-19 symptoms avoid taking ibuprofen, after French officials warned that anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen effects of the virus.
The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Veran followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections.
Wonder what they recommend to deal with the fever part...
probably Tylenol
i am not a doctor
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In comment 14839716 rocco8112 said:
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literally said to prepare for shelter in.
and cuomo said that is not happening, it is his call not de blasio
missed that ok
well on the table at least
Cuomo said he expects thr peak within 45 days and he does not want to quarantine the city becahse he knows the second he announces it everyone will leave and go somewhere else
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In comment 14839716 rocco8112 said:
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literally said to prepare for shelter in.
and cuomo said that is not happening, it is his call not de blasio
missed that ok
well on the table at least
Not happening yet. I would say that the situation can change any day. I also think nothing is off the table.
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If diagnosed with the Coronavirus
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The World Health Organization recommended Tuesday that people suffering COVID-19 symptoms avoid taking ibuprofen, after French officials warned that anti-inflammatory drugs could worsen effects of the virus.
The warning by French Health Minister Olivier Veran followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections.
Wonder what they recommend to deal with the fever part...
What I read is that NSAIDs exacerbate the disease.
So don't take ibuprofen
What I read suggested acetaminophen
It was built by a 17-year-old
link - ( New Window )
I have also pointed out many times that the fatality rate depends on available medical care. I have said that SK mortality rate is going to about 1.3% because the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Italy is trending towards 7%. Honestly look at their numbers and tell me how you can estimate anything lower than 7%.
Guys, context is important. You are always taking what I say out of the context in which I said it and twist it.
You do it so much, and it is so deceptive, you guys are liars. The truth is in the posts.
This wasn’t worth a response but you do realize Italy’s 7% statistic isn’t reflective of its broader population or of the US population. The average age of death in Italy has been north of 70 last I checked a day or two ago. Is the average age of the world population 70? How many kids or people under 40 have even been counted in Italy’s statistics?
You can call us liars .... I think you’re a drama queen who has no idea how to use statistics or numbers. Which makes you dangerous if given a microphone. Tell me again how young people are fucked too because 25 people under 50 years old are in ICU in the Netherlands
And your poor mother is living with you right now? The poor woman, you must be miserable to be around
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First of all, what I posted above I said was a worst case if we do nothing, and the hospitals are overwhelmed.
I have also pointed out many times that the fatality rate depends on available medical care. I have said that SK mortality rate is going to about 1.3% because the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Italy is trending towards 7%. Honestly look at their numbers and tell me how you can estimate anything lower than 7%.
Guys, context is important. You are always taking what I say out of the context in which I said it and twist it.
You do it so much, and it is so deceptive, you guys are liars. The truth is in the posts.
This wasn’t worth a response but you do realize Italy’s 7% statistic isn’t reflective of its broader population or of the US population. The average age of death in Italy has been north of 70 last I checked a day or two ago. Is the average age of the world population 70? How many kids or people under 40 have even been counted in Italy’s statistics?
You can call us liars .... I think you’re a drama queen who has no idea how to use statistics or numbers. Which makes you dangerous if given a microphone. Tell me again how young people are fucked too because 25 people under 50 years old are in ICU in the Netherlands
And your poor mother is living with you right now? The poor woman, you must be miserable to be around
Again [b]WORST CASE SCENARIO IF THE HOSPITALS GET OVERWHELMED[b]
reading comprehension is not your strong suit.
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First of all, what I posted above I said was a worst case if we do nothing, and the hospitals are overwhelmed.
I have also pointed out many times that the fatality rate depends on available medical care. I have said that SK mortality rate is going to about 1.3% because the hospitals are not overwhelmed. Italy is trending towards 7%. Honestly look at their numbers and tell me how you can estimate anything lower than 7%.
Guys, context is important. You are always taking what I say out of the context in which I said it and twist it.
You do it so much, and it is so deceptive, you guys are liars. The truth is in the posts.
This wasn’t worth a response but you do realize Italy’s 7% statistic isn’t reflective of its broader population or of the US population. The average age of death in Italy has been north of 70 last I checked a day or two ago. Is the average age of the world population 70? How many kids or people under 40 have even been counted in Italy’s statistics?
You can call us liars .... I think you’re a drama queen who has no idea how to use statistics or numbers. Which makes you dangerous if given a microphone. Tell me again how young people are fucked too because 25 people under 50 years old are in ICU in the Netherlands
And your poor mother is living with you right now? The poor woman, you must be miserable to be around
Oh and my mother says, you are too young, callous, and ignorant. Without understanding history people like you are bound to repeat the worst of it.
He said that the first Covid-19 patients he had treated with the drug chloroquine had seen a rapid and effective speeding up of their healing process, and a sharp decrease in the amount of time they remained contagious.
Full article. - ( New Window )
Let us know who they are so I don't risk clicking on their posts
People were extremely nice this morning. Their staff and everyone in line - I even commented to them how people are actually bringing carts back instead of leaving them in parking spaces which is one of those things that makes me hate people.
People were extremely nice this morning. Their staff and everyone in line - I even commented to them how people are actually bringing carts back instead of leaving them in parking spaces which is one of those things that makes me hate people.
You are a brave man to venture out like that!
Australian researchers find “cure” for coronavirus - ( New Window )
People were extremely nice this morning. Their staff and everyone in line - I even commented to them how people are actually bringing carts back instead of leaving them in parking spaces which is one of those things that makes me hate people.
Well I just got back from Publix, again, and everything is gone. After talking to some managers there is a line of 150 people every morning before they open. I imagine the old folks are getting there at 6 am for an 8 am open. People are still stuffing their carts like its going out of style. Have no idea where you live, maybe some nicer suburb that serves a limited amount of people, but every Publix in Tampa Bay is a ghost town.
.
I wouldn’t go at night, everything is going to be gone. Might have to just bite the bullet and go early and then be done with it. Grab a coffee, load up Netflix and just chill!
I mean you are going to need to go in the stores to get produce. I doubt they even list it on there because its never available.
In my long post, I mentioned that there are some mitigations coming... I mentioned an anti-viral cocktail, this is what I was referring to. Oh and by the way, the Chinese figured it out toward the end of their peak. Its been known about for weeks, but of course hasn't been tested outside of China, except now in Australia.
The Fort Lee man who was the 1st NJ patient is Chinese and a healthcare worker. He was aware of the drug cocktail and Chinese results. He is 32 years old and was getting worse, he told the doctors about the drug cocktail, they gave it to him and he seems to have responded and is now recovering.
Amen and agreed.
[quote] Professor Raoult is an infectious diseases specialist and head of the IHU Méditerranée Infection, who has been tasked by - and consulted by - the French government to research possible treatments of Covid-19.
He said that the first Covid-19 patients he had treated with the drug chloroquine had seen a rapid and effective speeding up of their healing process, and a sharp decrease in the amount of time they remained contagious. Full article. - ( New Window ) [/quote
Huge and great news to read.
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Or any type of shopping that allows like a drive through pickup?
I mean you are going to need to go in the stores to get produce. I doubt they even list it on there because its never available.
Guess it depends on where you live.... Wasn't a problem here in Richmond VA. We had to place the order on Sunday and it didn't get delivered til today, but it got delivered and we got most of what we ordered.
I wouldn’t go at night, everything is going to be gone. Might have to just bite the bullet and go early and then be done with it. Grab a coffee, load up Netflix and just chill!
Thats actually reassuring. No way I'm waiting in line because they give me PTSD but it sounds like they don't sell out the instant the open. I just need goddamn frozen veggies, chicken ,and maybe bananas, but fruit seems to be available like kiwis, pineapple, and watermelon. Fuck I'm going to make a list and a plan of attack right now.
I don't think this is wise reporting. I would want the community to always the police is at full force and healthy. Even if they aren't.
I wouldn't want to tempt anyone to take advantage of a situation where a police force is hit hard and under staffed...
My cousin who lives in NJ is still working in Newark & he said the trains have been ghost towns all week.
I am not saying it after the fact to cover my ass, I said it in the damn post...
Let me quote it for you...
Not .07% mostly elderly as somebody suggested above. And that is here in the US where we have good healthcare... Places like India and Africa can't do social distancing and have no healthcare to speak of. 100% of their population will get sick and 20+% will die. This will reduce the worldwide population by 7 to 10%.
And people say its just like the flu.
Go back and read the quote and you will see that is what I wrote.
Thanks for the info, there actually is one a mile away from me. Going to pop in there tomorrow, sounds like my best bet. Although I don't have time to wait in line, which is the issue.
[quote] Professor Raoult is an infectious diseases specialist and head of the IHU Méditerranée Infection, who has been tasked by - and consulted by - the French government to research possible treatments of Covid-19.
He said that the first Covid-19 patients he had treated with the drug chloroquine had seen a rapid and effective speeding up of their healing process, and a sharp decrease in the amount of time they remained contagious. Full article. - ( New Window ) [/quote
Huge and great news to read.
I read about a researcher in France who also came up with a treatment. They aren't getting any press though.
My cousin who lives in NJ is still working in Newark & he said the trains have been ghost towns all week.
Same, and thanks. I think I read that you were a little anxious a couple days ago. I am too, a worrier by nature. I feel much better today. This will pass. We're all going to be alright. It's a reset to a degree, at least how I'm looking at it. Just a reset to all be at home for awhile, get away from the grind of things. Get re-centered. This will pass and we will be back to business as usual, shortly. If you have time at home with your loved ones, take advantage of it and enjoy it.
I work in the healthcare space on the Risk Management side. We are modeling out the potential impact this is going to have our cost of care - and the clients we manage - for the next three quarters. So am neck deep in it every day.
I don't even look at the current numbers. We are looking where they likely end up in May, June and July. At times, the results can be staggering on the high end...
I hope people start using telemedicine if their insurer offers it as an option. Would help cut down on a lot of traffic...
Let me quote you my post again... Man no wonder you guys have a such a hard time with this stuff...
So draconian measures similar to China... So Yes, keeping everybody at home, as little interaction as possible. Supplies should be delivered by National Guard. Don't leave home.
Is that clear enough.
What's more is, that the sooner you implement these measures, the less time you need to maintain them. Although you cannot relax too much before a vaccine or effective treatments are widely available, otherwise the virus will start spreading and doing the doubling thing again.
The cost of doing nothing is many times higher than living through draconian measures for a period of time.
I get what you're saying but he needs too, go drive around for 30 minutes. What you'll see is enraging
I went to get gas earlier and saw women and their children coming out of target with clothes, decor, bedding and other non essential items.
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I implore you all. Take a break for a day or two. Step away from the screen. Be safe, be smart, but just unplug. I'm amazed at what that's done for my mental health in just a few days. I still check in, but just once or twice a day. I'm telling you, it's liberating. Studying numbers of an outbreak as a bystander does no good for your mental health.
I work in the healthcare space on the Risk Management side. We are modeling out the potential impact this is going to have our cost of care - and the clients we manage - for the next three quarters. So am neck deep in it every day.
I don't even look at the current numbers. We are looking where they likely end up in May, June and July. At times, the results can be staggering on the high end...
I hope people start using telemedicine if their insurer offers it as an option. Would help cut down on a lot of traffic...
My wife works for Anthem. We've been using telemedicine for years, and more recently Dispatch Health for house calls. Minute clinics in your local drug stores are also good options for things like flu and strep tests. There are options out there. Just got to know what they are.
The pickup and delivery services at my local supermarket were a few day out.
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Or any type of shopping that allows like a drive through pickup?
The pickup and delivery services at my local supermarket were a few day out.
Here too. And that's okay. When the hysteria dies down, it will all be restocked. Buy enough for two weeks, then re-evaluate.
this
650,000 died from the seasonal flu in 2019. Covid has been kicking around the world for almost 4 months and has killed 8,000. I’ll spare you all another regurgitation of the stats on mildness and recovery rates, but to anyone reading this and getting mad at an opposing point of view ... just take a moment and stop trying to double down and win your argument, and consider that maybe, possibly that you’ve got some cabin fever and are stressed and engaging in some serious confirmation bias. I will do the same!
Thankfully we got enough beer to last until Joe Judge is raising his 2nd Lombardi in 2025.
Interesting that the French scientist also says using choraline ( I know the spelling is wrong)
Thankfully we got enough beer to last until Joe Judge is raising his 2nd Lombardi in 2025.
I dont drink anymore and cant get weed, i have a little left..
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Thoughts? Australian researchers find “cure” for coronavirus - ( New Window )
Interesting that the French scientist also says using choraline ( I know the spelling is wrong)
They'll come up with a vaccine for sure even in the US and as well as overseas, the problem is it won't be available for another year at best after it goes through the new drug testing protocols.
at the dispensary you have to give them your cell phone number and wait in your car, and they'll text you when it's your turn to enter the store. Inside the store the entire floor has black X's on them 6 feet apart and you have to stand on an X until it's your turn with the clerk.
everyone in the store is polite and manages to adhere to the protocol.
Weed, the carrot at the end of the stick, people need to fall in line.
Here too. And that's okay. When the hysteria dies down, it will all be restocked. Buy enough for two weeks, then re-evaluate.
I really worry about the produce. The supply chains aren't meant to handle that, and to boot it seems like this shit scared everyone into eating healthier. People def weren't eating this many fruits and veggies before. Its not like you get that stuff at restaurants or takeout.
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In comment 14840135 Bill in UT said:
Here too. And that's okay. When the hysteria dies down, it will all be restocked. Buy enough for two weeks, then re-evaluate.
I really worry about the produce. The supply chains aren't meant to handle that, and to boot it seems like this shit scared everyone into eating healthier. People def weren't eating this many fruits and veggies before. Its not like you get that stuff at restaurants or takeout.
Fruits and veggies don't keep. The people that panic bought will figure that out real quick when they throw half that shit out in a week that they didn't get to.
The cost of doing nothing is many times higher than living through draconian measures for a period of time.
Got it... so what you are essentially saying is those numbers are going to happen if we don't go full China. Okay just wanted to make sure that was clear. We'll find out fairly soon, because no way that is happening here. Even if it looked like the disease was killing people numbers you are stating, what we know about the target population no way we go full China. So unless there is a miraculous cure coming in the next month, we'll find out.
Actually, that is not what they did with the model...
So just setting the record straight.
First the idea that there is a "potentially massive actual numbers" was debunked in the study. WHO is saying they are finding about 15% of the population have antibodies that were not counted... This study is using a value 3x that saying 40 - 50%. And said it doesn't seem like it will be higher than that. So that is what they based the model upon 40 - 50%. Plus the vast majority of those are people under age 20, who we already know do not suffer significant illness.
The .09% and 4.4% numbers were a best case scenario where medical care was available to all who get sick.
They go on to say that even in that rosy case, the Hospitals will be overwhelmed sometime in April.
There are a bunch of charts at the end for various scenarios. None treat the healthcare system well.
The point of the study was to highlight that even in a best case scenario, the healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed.
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In comment 14840053 madhatter9382 said:
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Thoughts? Australian researchers find “cure” for coronavirus - ( New Window )
Interesting that the French scientist also says using choraline ( I know the spelling is wrong)
They'll come up with a vaccine for sure even in the US and as well as overseas, the problem is it won't be available for another year at best after it goes through the new drug testing protocols.
Agree. However, if the choraline is available in pill form it’s better than nothing.
I was an idiot between 18-22. Hell, some would argue I'm still an idiot now...:-)
That said, these kids need to understand the gravity of what's going on. Even if they'll probably be fine, they could pass this on to their folks, grandparents, & those with weak immune systems who won't be fine. Those clips yesterday of Clearwater, FL...WTF?
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The whole point of the post was to highlight what happens if you do nothing, the worst case.
The cost of doing nothing is many times higher than living through draconian measures for a period of time.
Got it... so what you are essentially saying is those numbers are going to happen if we don't go full China. Okay just wanted to make sure that was clear. We'll find out fairly soon, because no way that is happening here. Even if it looked like the disease was killing people numbers you are stating, what we know about the target population no way we go full China. So unless there is a miraculous cure coming in the next month, we'll find out.
That we will never go full China, we agree...
Americans go surfing in hurricanes.
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... like the Imperial College model use death rates (0.9%) and hospitalization rates (4.4%) drawn from data in Wuhan, using a denominator of confirmed infections instead of the potentially massive “actual infection” number.
Actually, that is not what they did with the model...
So just setting the record straight.
First the idea that there is a "potentially massive actual numbers" was debunked in the study. WHO is saying they are finding about 15% of the population have antibodies that were not counted... This study is using a value 3x that saying 40 - 50%. And said it doesn't seem like it will be higher than that. So that is what they based the model upon 40 - 50%. Plus the vast majority of those are people under age 20, who we already know do not suffer significant illness.
The .09% and 4.4% numbers were a best case scenario where medical care was available to all who get sick.
They go on to say that even in that rosy case, the Hospitals will be overwhelmed sometime in April.
There are a bunch of charts at the end for various scenarios. None treat the healthcare system well.
The point of the study was to highlight that even in a best case scenario, the healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed.
I just read an estimate from J Hopkins that there between 25X to 50X more actual infections than confirmed Infections. As of this moment there are 6,900 confirmed infections in the US, putting us in a range of 170,000 to 340,000 actual infections. Applying the 0.9 death rate, we should have between 1,500 to 3,000 deaths. We have 110, and 1/3 of those came from a cluster of nursing homes in Kirkland WA.
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and they're driving not flying. They need to understand what's going on
I was an idiot between 18-22. Hell, some would argue I'm still an idiot now...:-)
That said, these kids need to understand the gravity of what's going on. Even if they'll probably be fine, they could pass this on to their folks, grandparents, & those with weak immune systems who won't be fine. Those clips yesterday of Clearwater, FL...WTF?
If that is gonna happen then you need to hit the right platforms...IG/FB/Snapchat/Hinge/Bumble/Tiktok all need to start getting involved and send out some public statement.
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In comment 14840152 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
... like the Imperial College model use death rates (0.9%) and hospitalization rates (4.4%) drawn from data in Wuhan, using a denominator of confirmed infections instead of the potentially massive “actual infection” number.
Actually, that is not what they did with the model...
So just setting the record straight.
First the idea that there is a "potentially massive actual numbers" was debunked in the study. WHO is saying they are finding about 15% of the population have antibodies that were not counted... This study is using a value 3x that saying 40 - 50%. And said it doesn't seem like it will be higher than that. So that is what they based the model upon 40 - 50%. Plus the vast majority of those are people under age 20, who we already know do not suffer significant illness.
The .09% and 4.4% numbers were a best case scenario where medical care was available to all who get sick.
They go on to say that even in that rosy case, the Hospitals will be overwhelmed sometime in April.
There are a bunch of charts at the end for various scenarios. None treat the healthcare system well.
The point of the study was to highlight that even in a best case scenario, the healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed.
I just read an estimate from J Hopkins that there between 25X to 50X more actual infections than confirmed Infections. As of this moment there are 6,900 confirmed infections in the US, putting us in a range of 170,000 to 340,000 actual infections. Applying the 0.9 death rate, we should have between 1,500 to 3,000 deaths. We have 110, and 1/3 of those came from a cluster of nursing homes in Kirkland WA.
context matters...
Without testing we don't know whats out there.
What we are seeing now is people who were infected 5 to 14 days ago, who have been spreading all that time. Plus there are literally thousands who have it but can't get tested.
What Johns Hopkins actually said was that right now 86% of those who are infected are undetected. That doesn't mean that they will remain undetected.
WHO and Imperial College and many other places are not saying that there will be anything like 25 - 50x out there that went unconfirmed when this is all said and done.
Yup. My friend said the same, his buddies at various hospitals have been giving him updates here and there. My friends concerned because his wife is a nurse and he said they just arent equipped to keep the staff safe. That the PPE in Wuhan is far superior to what’s available for medical professionals here.
The vast majority of these people are not symptomatic... YET...
Johns Hopkins also never said that the 86% currently undetected will never be detected. In fact, there is data to suggest that somewhere between 50 and 80% of them will eventually be detected.
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this @ the beginning, but I think these posts of millions of Americans dying is a bit over the top. Yeah, these next couple of months are going to suck/be weird, but let's not go completely overboard.
How is that overboard? There are legitimate estimates that upwards of 2M Americans will die. We can hope and pray that we don't hit that mark, but right now tens upon tens of millions are expected to contract the virus and nearly all Americans will have at least been in contact with it.
it has been here for roughly 4 months and 100 people have died and you got 2 million americans dieing? stop it
Secondly, I think the morality rates are completely out of whack. Like, for example, KD tested positive for it. If he wasn't a basketball player-completely different story-would he have been tested? Doubtful. I don't doubt that a lot of us will end up with this virus & be fine. The people I worry about are the elderly & those with compromised immune systems.
Also, this idea that this just arrived on our shores is laughable. This has been circulating in this country since probably January. I had a cold last month-cough, somewhat of a fever-but I didn't get tested. Odds are I probably didn't have it, but I suspect a lot of people with my symptoms did.
I'm trying to downplay this illness. It's serious, especially for the elderly & those with preexisting conditions. But when I see people talk about millions of Americans dying from this...well, it's a bit over the top. Hell, AcidTest had 55 million in the world dying because of this.
Secondly, I think the morality rates are completely out of whack. Like, for example, KD tested positive for it. If he wasn't a basketball player-completely different story-would he have been tested? Doubtful. I don't doubt that a lot of us will end up with this virus & be fine. The people I worry about are the elderly & those with compromised immune systems.
Also, this idea that this just arrived on our shores is laughable. This has been circulating in this country since probably January. I had a cold last month-cough, somewhat of a fever-but I didn't get tested. Odds are I probably didn't have it, but I suspect a lot of people with my symptoms did.
I'm trying to downplay this illness. It's serious, especially for the elderly & those with preexisting conditions. But when I see people talk about millions of Americans dying from this...well, it's a bit over the top. Hell, AcidTest had 55 million in the world dying because of this.
This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
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First of all, I hope you feel better. I saw your post earlier.
Secondly, I think the morality rates are completely out of whack. Like, for example, KD tested positive for it. If he wasn't a basketball player-completely different story-would he have been tested? Doubtful. I don't doubt that a lot of us will end up with this virus & be fine. The people I worry about are the elderly & those with compromised immune systems.
Also, this idea that this just arrived on our shores is laughable. This has been circulating in this country since probably January. I had a cold last month-cough, somewhat of a fever-but I didn't get tested. Odds are I probably didn't have it, but I suspect a lot of people with my symptoms did.
I'm trying to downplay this illness. It's serious, especially for the elderly & those with preexisting conditions. But when I see people talk about millions of Americans dying from this...well, it's a bit over the top. Hell, AcidTest had 55 million in the world dying because of this.
This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
Saw this on Twitter. If true, a lot of people could die without taking extreme measures.
The flu doesnt overwhelm the system like this could.
Link - ( New Window )
This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.
WHO Now Officially Recommends to Avoid Taking Ibuprofen For COVID-19 Symptoms - ( New Window )
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Assuming that their 86% number is correct. The 14% that have been detected are all cases from at least 5 days ago, probably more. Do the math, 6500 now really means 6500 days ago and that that represent only 14% at that time. You get about 46.5K infections days ago. The spread is causing doubling every 2.5 days. So it has gone through 2 to 3 doubling cycles... If only 2 that means that there are 185K cases. If 3x doubling its 370K cases. That is how you get to the 25x-50x numbers. And I fully believe that... In fact we have about 1500 people who are sick and likely have it that can't get tested... So that jacks the numbers up even higher.
The vast majority of these people are not symptomatic... YET...
Johns Hopkins also never said that the 86% currently undetected will never be detected. In fact, there is data to suggest that somewhere between 50 and 80% of them will eventually be detected.
Did you see the latest info on onset and duration? Much faster from beginning to end that I thought. 5 days to difficulty breathing (for the rare few), 8 days to ventilator, 18.5 days to death, with the vast majority recovered within a week. It’s not a lay dormant for 20 days type illness.
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This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.
* Is a bad flu season
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In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:
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This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.
* Is a bad flu season
I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.
My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?
I hope all this shit gets archived.
If Anak got shit/looked kinda dumb for "WHAT IS TYREE DOING OUT THERE" in the Superbowl XLII game thread, then I cannot imagine how idiotic you'll look if anyone stumbles across your posts 5 years from now.
Your posts have reached the point of you just trying to convince yourself.
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In comment 14840327 Chocco said:
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In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:
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This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.
* Is a bad flu season
I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.
My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?
Learn exponents. Or realize that this infection is rising 33% every few days.
Extrapolate that.
I swear, BBI is the only place where people are still trying to convince themselves this isn't an issue.
BTW, take that extrapolation, divide it by the number of patients who need ventilators due to illness, and compare it to existing ventilators in this country.
Oh also, imagine you or a family member gets sick due to a non covid related issue, and cannot even get into a hospital.
It's unfathomable people are still at the "why is this a big deal?" phase.
Stop blaming CNN or the media or whatever. That's bullshit garbage. China gives no fucks about western media narratives, they're an authoritarian, despotic government complete with internment camps, and they locked their own cities down and committed hari kari when it comes to their economy just to stop the spread.
Look up the growth over the last 3 months and extrapolate them, logarithimically, over the next 6. Then juxtapose that with healthcare availability/
Did you see the latest info on onset and duration? Much faster from beginning to end that I thought. 5 days to difficulty breathing (for the rare few), 8 days to ventilator, 18.5 days to death, with the vast majority recovered within a week. It’s not a lay dormant for 20 days type illness.
One of the people that were on the cruise ship mentioned this. An older guy, maybe 70, was interviewed about 2 weeks ago. He said he was fine one moment, then 20 minutes later he had a 103 temp and was in isolation. Docs pumped him up with fluids; gatorade, water, etc. and just let it run it's course and he recovered fairly quickly with nothing but a lingering cough as a residual side effect.
It’s been weeks and some still don’t get it. Mind boggling.
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Thats the issue, lots of words with no real definition, that I'm sure you'll use to fit your narrative later.
JFC, you've been so idiotic on all of these threads.
I hope all this shit gets archived.
If Anak got shit/looked kinda dumb for "WHAT IS TYREE DOING OUT THERE" in the Superbowl XLII game thread, then I cannot imagine how idiotic you'll look if anyone stumbles across your posts 5 years from now.
Your posts have reached the point of you just trying to convince yourself.
How was this stupid? I wanted a clear definition of what he meant. And he clarified that he meant, yes, locking people inside, just like China.
I wanted to make sure he didn't mean what is going on now, which is heavy awareness.
And convince myself of what? I think its going to bad in a couple major cities before awareness was widespread, but outside of that, now that awareness is widespread, we will drastically reduce how fast this was moving.
Looking at various places on the internet there seems to be a massive disconnect because the US is a giant place and some places have a much larger problem than others. Everyone is looking at what is going around them locally and making that the reality of what is going on everywhere in America.
I say that as a father of 2 children who is working from home and has been following every measure of quarantine for the week to 10 days.
This thread is the only place I'm seeing death toll in the millions.
I'm just wondering why that is? Not sarcastic.
It’s been weeks and some still don’t get it. Mind boggling.
I've heard others suggest this too (including my 17-year olds' who are really struggling with this) it's sort of the herd immunity approach.
The theory is not to quarantine the infected, but quarantine the at-risk (elderly people and people with compromised immune systems).
If I understand the post correctly and the poster means the same thing.
In this case you are quarantining a small subset of the population and the wheels of commerce keep churning, and others go about their daily lives pretty much unfettered and the virus runs its course.
I think this was the UK approach before they realized even infected "healthy/non-at-risk" people at the expected volumes would completely overwhelm their healthcare system and possibly lead to deaths of people who may otherwise survive with treatment.
It’s like they were/are on a different planet. Warm weather, I think, instinctively gives people this false sense of safety...
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Again yesterday. UFB...
It’s like they were/are on a different planet. Warm weather, I think, instinctively gives people this false sense of safety...
You have people-reputable posters-saying 55-65 million people are going to die from this. Like, WTF?
if the us did absolutely nothing that would happen..
right now we are at 100 dead and this has been here for at least 3 months, i am not saying it wont spikr up but if it doesnt in a week or 2 is it safe to say it might not?
Even if pretty serious restrictions are put in place around social distancing, we are testing a lot, etc they expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.
The only scenario where they limit the deaths dramatically is under very serious quarantine, max testing, everything shut down but even then it will be a severe change to our lives. Estimate this full quarantine going until July, after which we could start to partially return to normal life for brief periods followed by a return to the restrictions.
This thread outlines it better than I can. Bottom line it’s really bad and we should take it seriously and it’s going to have long term ramifications.
Link to the paper and a summary on Twitter - ( New Window )
I can't believe people are blaming the news. The news is giving us valuable information, from the experts/scientists themsevlves.
It's not the common cold, it's not the flu.
Total disconnect. And where are their parents telling them to GTFO & go somewhere else?
That's a pretty big caveat. WE ARE DOING THINGS, outside the idiots in Clearwater, FL.
That's a pretty big caveat. WE ARE DOING THINGS, outside the idiots in Clearwater, FL.
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In comment 14840333 Chocco said:
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In comment 14840327 Chocco said:
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In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:
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This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.
* Is a bad flu season
I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.
My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?
Learn exponents. Or realize that this infection is rising 33% every few days.
Extrapolate that.
I swear, BBI is the only place where people are still trying to convince themselves this isn't an issue.
BTW, take that extrapolation, divide it by the number of patients who need ventilators due to illness, and compare it to existing ventilators in this country.
Oh also, imagine you or a family member gets sick due to a non covid related issue, and cannot even get into a hospital.
It's unfathomable people are still at the "why is this a big deal?" phase.
Stop blaming CNN or the media or whatever. That's bullshit garbage. China gives no fucks about western media narratives, they're an authoritarian, despotic government complete with internment camps, and they locked their own cities down and committed hari kari when it comes to their economy just to stop the spread.
Look up the growth over the last 3 months and extrapolate them, logarithimically, over the next 6. Then juxtapose that with healthcare availability/
Big fan of OP Sonic Youth, always enjoy your smart and acerbic posts. But I think you’re missing something on this one, which is, you are relying too heavily on epidemiological models that are based on incomplete information and which assume a symmetry between China and the US and even between different populations in the US (for example, using the grim stats of the Kirkland, Washington situation as a starting point to model out predictions for the rest of country). This is especially true regarding future death and hospitalization rates (which ultimately are the whole reason for justifying an societal/economic shutdown).
I know you think that folks who think this is a groupthink overreaction to a (short-duration, 95% mild) virus “don’t understand math” or exponential growth and are anti-science rubes, but for just a minute, play devil’s advocate with your position — look at what the models are and aren’t based on, and consider the asymmetric factors that might impact the “math.”
I’m not going to end this post with a zinger, because I don’t want to try to win an argument with you. This is just an appeal for you and the other “it’s math dummy!” folks to self-challenge some of the models and predictions. No end of post zinger, see! [Also, listen to I Love You Golden Blue off of Sonic Nurse, one of the great songs ever].
I don’t think the US is remotely capable of the kind of social distancing or quarantines the experts are advocating.
I realize some places have curfews so that limited things surely. But were some places packed before that?
I found out yesterday that someone that lives with one of my students was taken to the ER showing all symptoms (not a positive test yet). This student came to school every day last week and has also been tested and awaiting results. If that test comes back negative then it's like a bullet dodged. If it comes back positive then who knows how many people are going into quarantine or awaiting tests. Right now we were told the results of the tests are still 2 days out.
Even if pretty serious restrictions are put in place around social distancing, we are testing a lot, etc they expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.
The only scenario where they limit the deaths dramatically is under very serious quarantine, max testing, everything shut down but even then it will be a severe change to our lives. Estimate this full quarantine going until July, after which we could start to partially return to normal life for brief periods followed by a return to the restrictions.
This thread outlines it better than I can. Bottom line it’s really bad and we should take it seriously and it’s going to have long term ramifications. Link to the paper and a summary on Twitter - ( New Window )
Who is Jeremy C. Young? who you've linked here?
What makes him credible? He is tweeting about deaths in numbers of 15 Holocausts in some of his tweets.
Even if pretty serious restrictions are put in place around social distancing, we are testing a lot, etc they expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.
The only scenario where they limit the deaths dramatically is under very serious quarantine, max testing, everything shut down but even then it will be a severe change to our lives. Estimate this full quarantine going until July, after which we could start to partially return to normal life for brief periods followed by a return to the restrictions.
This thread outlines it better than I can. Bottom line it’s really bad and we should take it seriously and it’s going to have long term ramifications. Link to the paper and a summary on Twitter - ( New Window )
Oscar, did you read that report closely? See anything missing? See any potential flaws? It’s a good exercise in general with large scale models that seek to apply symmetry to asymmetric situations.
I don’t think the US is remotely capable of the kind of social distancing or quarantines the experts are advocating.
Even if you make contact with someone that has been exposed to Covid-19 does not imply that you will bump forward as that individual will have to be in contagious state. That is why this is difficult, but it is kind of like the abstinence idea, avoid, don't do, stay away. Less options to intersect. I am still curious about the low death counts so far....
My extended family has lived in Jupiter the past 30 years. I’ve seen more famous people there than in the rest of the world combined. I remember going to the uncrowded driving range at their club (Jonathan’s Landing) ... and I swear Phil Simms and Bill Parcells were there. Later that same trip, I’m sitting at the community pool and Clarence Thomas walked in. I’ve never seen Tiger though ....
if we are at 150 deaths next week are people going to say screw this, that is when it gets dangerous
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my mom is down there right now, she was by thr pool, secrer service walked in, trumps grand kids walked in..
My extended family has lived in Jupiter the past 30 years. I’ve seen more famous people there than in the rest of the world combined. I remember going to the uncrowded driving range at their club (Jonathan’s Landing) ... and I swear Phil Simms and Bill Parcells were there. Later that same trip, I’m sitting at the community pool and Clarence Thomas walked in. I’ve never seen Tiger though ....
a lot of golfers in jupiter, some of thr homes in my parents gated community are going for 8 million dollars they are huge
And, if a ton of people do get sick we overload our hospitals...which has a trickle down effect for other people who need care for other reasons.
i can go to my local care doctor and get tested no problem, the problem is not lack of tests, it is that it has to get sent to a lab to get tested and the labs can only fo so many tests
i went to the grocery store yesterday, it was empty, i went to a weis instead of shop rite or bjs but still
Our nationwide school systems and economy is shut down/operating from home.
Knowing that you're never going to get 100% participation when people are numbered in millions, I think there's a lot of smart people doing what they can right now under terrible circumstances.
Can you provide the ways in which your friend in healthcare has described this being worse than reported?
Legitimately curious to hear.
Wow.
TIA
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going for a run, a walk with your dog, or doing yard work should be encouraged. I'll be doing that today. Just don't do it in a group.
Can you provide the ways in which your friend in healthcare has described this being worse than reported?
Legitimately curious to hear.
Sure. The biggest one was that Yale New Haven hospital hasn't yet had a confirmed case, but apparently that isn't true. The reason that isn't true is because the hospital/s just don't have the supplies to handle this but they need to keep everyone calm. I mentioned yesterday that his wife is a nurse in one of the major Philly hospitals and he doesn't even want her going in, they barely have PPE for her to use when tending to patients - she's high risk all day long.
My neighbor is a surgeon at Yale and I'm waiting to talk to him to see what the deal is. I texted lastnight with his wife to see how they were holding up and she said they are trying to limit exposure and amount of people in the hospital so people are doing 24 hour shifts every 3 days.
Another friend just texted me that that his mother, a 70 year old retired nurse in Stamford for 45 years has been reached out to for help and got guilted into going in yesterday. She's highly at risk, and he was pissed she went. She obviously had the choice to say no but that's where we are at right now at the hospitals.
Flame away if you want, don't really care. This shit is happening and people need to wake up and just listen to what's being told to you. Stop being morons.
TIA
Takeout seems fine. Our friends own a bakery and they moved to curbside pickups and deliveries (they do breakfast and lunch). You are still at risk with someone touching the bag/containers but that's probably minimal.
if we are at 150 deaths next week are people going to say screw this, that is when it gets dangerous
I really worry about this as well. I think everyone will be okay with this for a short period of time. Its the extended period that has me worried and when people will say screw it and resume their lives if possible.
I think we need to just buy some time for the hospitals/government to fully prepare for the spike in patients. But that is going to take 1-2 months...
Link - ( New Window )
What this means is you have potentially positive patients going back home to most assuredly infect everyone in the house, and the occupants of those homes entering the community, even if practicing moderate "social distancing."
On the other hand, you have patients coming in and occupying resources who are suspected of COVID, but may not actually be infected.
Bottom line, we need to be investing resources in our capacity to PROCESS tests as well, not just in our ability to collect samples.
It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..
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Has done their own projection which is approximately 4 million dead in the United States if no precautions are taken. 2.2 million from the virus, the remainder would be people who have a severe enough case to require a ventilator. Under circumstances where they can get a ventilator 50% of those people would be expected to live, but if the medical system is overwhelmed and they can’t get access to ventilators nearly 100% of that group would die as well.
Even if pretty serious restrictions are put in place around social distancing, we are testing a lot, etc they expect about 2 million deaths in the United States.
The only scenario where they limit the deaths dramatically is under very serious quarantine, max testing, everything shut down but even then it will be a severe change to our lives. Estimate this full quarantine going until July, after which we could start to partially return to normal life for brief periods followed by a return to the restrictions.
This thread outlines it better than I can. Bottom line it’s really bad and we should take it seriously and it’s going to have long term ramifications. Link to the paper and a summary on Twitter - ( New Window )
Oscar, did you read that report closely? See anything missing? See any potential flaws? It’s a good exercise in general with large scale models that seek to apply symmetry to asymmetric situations.
Oscar, this report has been posted at least 3 times on this thread and discusses for pages. There are a lot of issues/worst case scenario's here. Please go back and read through
Add on top of this that people went to vote yesterday (including my Grandfather, who had to vote for his friend) and this just doesn’t seem like it’s going to end well.
It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..
That is the odd part, if this has been going on in China since the holidays with folks traveling back and forth, suspect many americans have had flu and other symptoms as well, perhaps the stealth they mention. Outside of the low death count, another interesting data point needs to be revealed. In those dashboards you see reported, recovered, dead. Is the definition of reported a tested individual with presence of the virus and sent home or to a hospital? Big difference.
Add on top of this that people went to vote yesterday (including my Grandfather, who had to vote for his friend) and this just doesn’t seem like it’s going to end well.
I will say this living here, outside of the spring break kids, the old people are probably right behind them as far as giving a fuck. My buddy said he went to gym yesterday, and the yoga class looked geriatric. The psychology of it is interesting, when you have limited time left anyway, how much are you going to change your daily routine. I've heard that from many, many old people (without the limited time left part for the most part, but it is clearly implied in their thinking)
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my question is will thr number of deaths grow with it, if it doesnt, when will it?
It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..
That is the odd part, if this has been going on in China since the holidays with folks traveling back and forth, suspect many americans have had flu and other symptoms as well, perhaps the stealth they mention. Outside of the low death count, another interesting data point needs to be revealed. In those dashboards you see reported, recovered, dead. Is the definition of reported a tested individual with presence of the virus and sent home or to a hospital? Big difference.
My understand is reported means they have it and were sent home, unless it was really bad and they went to the hospital. As you know most cases the people are told to go home and wait it out. I suspect we will see a lot more cases of people having it (we are a much bigger country than Italy so it makes sense), and as we do the fatality rate will drop to something in line with South Korea. I think the last number I saw was .5-.7%. This is still larger than the flu, but below some of the numbers being reported around. Getting this, just like getting anything else, is not a death sentence.
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It’s labeled “Gods waiting room for a reason” and the pictures of people swimming and crowding beaches/spring breakers is not inspiring me to feel like they are taking it seriously.
Add on top of this that people went to vote yesterday (including my Grandfather, who had to vote for his friend) and this just doesn’t seem like it’s going to end well.
I will say this living here, outside of the spring break kids, the old people are probably right behind them as far as giving a fuck. My buddy said he went to gym yesterday, and the yoga class looked geriatric. The psychology of it is interesting, when you have limited time left anyway, how much are you going to change your daily routine. I've heard that from many, many old people (without the limited time left part for the most part, but it is clearly implied in their thinking)
the old people dont care lol, they are going to live their life, if my grandfather was still alive he would say screw you i am not staying in my house...
my grandmother goes to church every day to bake
But the photos from Clearwater...I just, uh, don't get it. Do they get news in Clearwater? I've never been so I don't know. In all seriousness, incredibly irresponsible behavior by those people. Until the government steps in & goes all 'YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED ON THE F'ING BEACH', people will still go.
15% become very ill
5% will need some form of critical care to survive
If 40 to 60 percent of 330 million people are infected, that 5% number will crush the hospital system
This ? has never been answered sufficiently.
Link - ( New Window )
But the photos from Clearwater...I just, uh, don't get it. Do they get news in Clearwater? I've never been so I don't know. In all seriousness, incredibly irresponsible behavior by those people. Until the government steps in & goes all 'YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED ON THE F'ING BEACH', people will still go.
SF...what you have here is a lot of people that came here on Friday/Saturday were already here when things started to escalate. I imagine after this week that behavior will die a ton. Could you imagine being here on spring break at 21, your here already and things haven't really reached critical mass yet, especially here.
The message is out now and I expect the crowds to die down drastically in the next wave, because the parents for the most part are the ones paying for these things I think.
15% become very ill
5% will need some form of critical care to survive
If 40 to 60 percent of 330 million people are infected, that 5% number will crush the hospital system
The question is how fast that 5 percent get it and how long they spend in hospital. That is the variable we are trying to slow. Or at least slow enough until we can get a vaccine together hopefully.
But the photos from Clearwater...I just, uh, don't get it. Do they get news in Clearwater? I've never been so I don't know. In all seriousness, incredibly irresponsible behavior by those people. Until the government steps in & goes all 'YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED ON THE F'ING BEACH', people will still go.
Bugs Bunny has already cut off Florida.
Congratulations on reaching 90. Here's hope you have many more great years. Best wishes.
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In comment 14840676 nygiants16 said:
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my question is will thr number of deaths grow with it, if it doesnt, when will it?
It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..
That is the odd part, if this has been going on in China since the holidays with folks traveling back and forth, suspect many americans have had flu and other symptoms as well, perhaps the stealth they mention. Outside of the low death count, another interesting data point needs to be revealed. In those dashboards you see reported, recovered, dead. Is the definition of reported a tested individual with presence of the virus and sent home or to a hospital? Big difference.
My understand is reported means they have it and were sent home, unless it was really bad and they went to the hospital. As you know most cases the people are told to go home and wait it out. I suspect we will see a lot more cases of people having it (we are a much bigger country than Italy so it makes sense), and as we do the fatality rate will drop to something in line with South Korea. I think the last number I saw was .5-.7%. This is still larger than the flu, but below some of the numbers being reported around. Getting this, just like getting anything else, is not a death sentence.
95% mild, even for folks with symptoms bad enough to seek treatment. And the new clinical studies coming out of the Wuhan show it is a short-duration illness — if you are even going to have symptoms, they will manifest within 3-7 days of exposure (it’s not an incubate-for-20 days then worsen type illness). For the vast majority of folks, it’s a 5 day and done illness. I’m hoping that the doomsday people start to realize this within the next few weeks.
This is out of line, no value add, and will be reported.
Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.
15% become very ill
5% will need some form of critical care to survive
If 40 to 60 percent of 330 million people are infected, that 5% number will crush the hospital system
Where did you get the 15/5 stats? Don’t read the scary headline, read the study/model — anything missing?
Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.
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In comment 14840694 mdc1 said:
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In comment 14840676 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
my question is will thr number of deaths grow with it, if it doesnt, when will it?
It has been here since january, that means thousands of people are probabky were walking around with it for months..
That is the odd part, if this has been going on in China since the holidays with folks traveling back and forth, suspect many americans have had flu and other symptoms as well, perhaps the stealth they mention. Outside of the low death count, another interesting data point needs to be revealed. In those dashboards you see reported, recovered, dead. Is the definition of reported a tested individual with presence of the virus and sent home or to a hospital? Big difference.
My understand is reported means they have it and were sent home, unless it was really bad and they went to the hospital. As you know most cases the people are told to go home and wait it out. I suspect we will see a lot more cases of people having it (we are a much bigger country than Italy so it makes sense), and as we do the fatality rate will drop to something in line with South Korea. I think the last number I saw was .5-.7%. This is still larger than the flu, but below some of the numbers being reported around. Getting this, just like getting anything else, is not a death sentence.
95% mild, even for folks with symptoms bad enough to seek treatment. And the new clinical studies coming out of the Wuhan show it is a short-duration illness — if you are even going to have symptoms, they will manifest within 3-7 days of exposure (it’s not an incubate-for-20 days then worsen type illness). For the vast majority of folks, it’s a 5 day and done illness. I’m hoping that the doomsday people start to realize this within the next few weeks.
The above is largely conjecture on your part.
15% become very ill
5% will need some form of critical care to survive
If 40 to 60 percent of 330 million people are infected, that 5% number will crush the hospital system
people are simply asking if it has been here since march and has been soreading undetected, why is there not more deaths? that is all people are saying..
Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.
UConn, I think that's the fear. The worried well are going to flood the hospitals & all hell is going to break loose. Most people-if they get it-can recover quite well @ home. Don't just go rushing to the ER if you have a slight cough. You're doing more harm than good to those who really need to be there.
Also, God bless the nurses, doctors, & hospital personnel. They are true heroes.
What is inaccurate about what I typed? You may not like it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.
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wasn't feeling well on Friday and he went to the ER and they basically told him to fuck off.
Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.
UConn, I think that's the fear. The worried well are going to flood the hospitals & all hell is going to break loose. Most people-if they get it-can recover quite well @ home. Don't just go rushing to the ER if you have a slight cough. You're doing more harm than good to those who really need to be there.
Also, God bless the nurses, doctors, & hospital personnel. They are true heroes.
Amen.
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and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).
Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.
Dude come on. This is how we got to this point to begin with.
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and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).
Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.
Yep, that sucks too.
Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.
UCONN, directly from a colleague I work with:
From my brother who’s a registered nurse: “unless you are symptomatic like short of breath and temperature uncontrollable, you haven’t travel to hot zone, you haven’t come in contact with a known carrier, the ER won’t test you.”
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wasn't feeling well on Friday and he went to the ER and they basically told him to fuck off.
Now multiply that by millions of cases in the coming days/weeks - all the time/resources spent telling people with a slight fever that there is nothing they can do, go home, drink water, get rest, etc.
UCONN, directly from a colleague I work with:
From my brother who’s a registered nurse: “unless you are symptomatic like short of breath and temperature uncontrollable, you haven’t travel to hot zone, you haven’t come in contact with a known carrier, the ER won’t test you.”
This sounds like its going to further drive the numbers of seriously ill and mortality rates to sounding a lot worse then they are in reality.
What is inaccurate about what I typed? You may not like it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.
Ohhh you got him with that make fun of his handle comment! Was extra funny after asking him if HE was in third grade
There are some insane people on this site...
Same, going to order a few yards of topsoil for next week, level, and begin getting after it. Also getting my front walkway done.
He would have stopped the virus cold by Super Thursday.
What is inaccurate about what I typed? You may not like it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.
This is a really good thread with important info. Keep the politics out of it as specified by Eric...
Saw one armed robbery in the paper yesterday. I imagine that will only go up as most of the city is out of work. Gun stores are all completely sold out, emptier than the grocery stores.
Good time/apropos to listen to 7empest.
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In comment 14840729 Motley Two said:
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and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).
Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.
Dude come on. This is how we got to this point to begin with.
Perspective is good.
Let’s not forget that 2009, H1N1 infected 60 million in the US, killed 12,000 in the U.S. ... and it was mostly business as usual. And that one was actually a close match to the Spanish Flu.
After deaths from the virus reached more than 2,500, with a 150% increase in the past week, health authorities have been combing through data to provide clues to help combat the spread of the disease.
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government is evaluating whether to extend a nationwide lockdown beyond the beginning of April, daily La Stampa reported Wednesday. Italy has more than 31,500 confirmed cases of the illness....
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In comment 14840763 Jim from Katonah said:
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In comment 14840729 Motley Two said:
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and 250 people (globally) had died, Since then (3.5 hours ago) another 100 have died(globally).
Try the same exercise with a seasonal flu tracker. About 2,000 a day died from it Worldwide in 2019.
Dude come on. This is how we got to this point to begin with.
Perspective is good.
Let’s not forget that 2009, H1N1 infected 60 million in the US, killed 12,000 in the U.S. ... and it was mostly business as usual. And that one was actually a close match to the Spanish Flu.
The difference is, it could be identified and the vaccine was rolled out not immediately but after some time...not a year and half later as we are hearing with this.
So I think you approach it as this could be worse with no vaccine expected for awhile.........
N1N1 was called the Swine flu, flu the key word. Coronavirus is worse, at least what we are hearing from the experts.
So that could very well be a ton of normal people getting sick and dying.
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On Long Island?
TIA
Takeout seems fine. Our friends own a bakery and they moved to curbside pickups and deliveries (they do breakfast and lunch). You are still at risk with someone touching the bag/containers but that's probably minimal.
Thanks UConn!
So that could very well be a ton of normal people getting sick and dying.
maybe, but also consider their age at death, and it's probably a complicating factor.
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Both true. But we also have some of the unhealthiest people in the world- obese, smokers, diabetic, etc. Specifically obesity is going to be an enormous problem in treating patients here.
They did so because they needed the immigration as they don’t have enough young people to support their economy once the older people their pass away. Their population was decreasing. As is the United States.
They took immigration from everywhere and most of them come from war stricken areas like Northern Countries in Africa.
When all this is over, they might not need the immigration any more, but I am sure they would have preferred it to happen a completely different way.
Might have been a bit of an exagerration to get out $1000 checks swifty, but I didn't exactly crunch the numbers.......
If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.
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Your reporting me to who, Trump? Are you in third grade? Did you create your username in 1986?
What is inaccurate about what I typed? You may not like it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.
Ohhh you got him with that make fun of his handle comment! Was extra funny after asking him if HE was in third grade
Thanks kdubbs... this has been a great, informative thread and id hate to see it deleted if more posts like that come up (which we all know is what happens if it gets out of control). No matter what side of the political aisle any of us may be, there is no place for his irrelevant political views right now. Adds nothing to the conversation and no one asked.
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could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.
If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.
PP - missed it, what is the MSM doing with the 20% unemployment quote?
He was the most gung-ho about keeping the office open this week.
THANK GOD he never went into the office himself this week!
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In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.
If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.
PP - missed it, what is the MSM doing with the 20% unemployment quote?
For 1 full day it was headlined as "Mnuchen say unemployment to hit 20%', this was on CNN, HuffPo, and Drudge. Fearmongering. Now they at least put in fint print "if we do nothing". Which is closer to what he said. Reality is we are passing all/most of the things he wanted. Mnuchen addressed / clarified it again on CNBC this morning.
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WOW... the median age of Italy's "infected count" is 63??? That to me is a more eye-popping stat than the average fatility age. How can anyone take their "mortality rate" too seriously when the average denominator test case is in retirement years? They arent testing young people.
Again - this is very, very serious. Again, i'm all for containment and separation for the next month to two months. But that mortality rate everyone is throwing around based on Europe numbers is massively, massively exaggerated... its not remotely reflective of the general population. Not nearly enough people are being tested to give us a better sense of the risks.
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In comment 14841064 PatersonPlank said:
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In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.
If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.
PP - missed it, what is the MSM doing with the 20% unemployment quote?
For 1 full day it was headlined as "Mnuchen say unemployment to hit 20%', this was on CNN, HuffPo, and Drudge. Fearmongering. Now they at least put in fint print "if we do nothing". Which is closer to what he said. Reality is we are passing all/most of the things he wanted. Mnuchen addressed / clarified it again on CNBC this morning.
Ehhhh, did you read the article on headline only? lol....I mean, that's a bit harsh on the MSM.
He did say that, and that's the headline. I'm sure the article itself expanded on it.
Just saw that, ouch.
Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.
Any comparison to seasonal flu is an exercise for fools.
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Italy has an older population and the average age of fatality is 80. average.
WOW... the median age of Italy's "infected count" is 63??? That to me is a more eye-popping stat than the average fatility age. How can anyone take their "mortality rate" too seriously when the average denominator test case is in retirement years? They arent testing young people.
Again - this is very, very serious. Again, i'm all for containment and separation for the next month to two months. But that mortality rate everyone is throwing around based on Europe numbers is massively, massively exaggerated... its not remotely reflective of the general population. Not nearly enough people are being tested to give us a better sense of the risks.
But I was told that we are 100 percent heading towards Italy like numbers here. Its really why we should be looking towards South Korea for the most accurate stats like I have been saying, they have the most extensive testing program and even then the arent testing people that are asymptomatic.
a week from now that might not be the case, bit for right now it is
Any comparison to seasonal flu is an exercise for fools.
Right and since we have no immunity to it, its the reason it is killing and hospitalizing the sick and unhealthy.
Just because you are otherwise healthy doesn't mean blood pressure 120/80 is healthy. That is an unhealthy individual, just because its normal here in America, doesn't mean its healthy.
Look around at the kids, they don't even know what fat is anymore, because a lot of these kids that are overweight have become the norm.
Any comparison to seasonal flu is an exercise for fools.
It is a flu we do not have immunity too. In 17/18 45,000 people in the US died of the flu. That means 167 people died per day over a 365 day period. I bet a whole lot more people are going to be getting a flu shot next year.
Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.
Digging mass graves for the American/world population right now is not exactly sexy either.
There's reason to take every precaution and every necessary step to combat this virus, but some of these posts are, if not over the top, at the very least premature.
Personally, I had procedures scheduled for my eyes - indefinitely cancelled. Dentist - closed, primary care MD - closed. If you don’t have Coronovirus the health care system doesn’t want to be bothered with you. The situation is bad and will get MUCH worse.
Personally, I had procedures scheduled for my eyes - indefinitely cancelled. Dentist - closed, primary care MD - closed. If you don’t have Coronovirus the health care system doesn’t want to be bothered with you. The situation is bad and will get MUCH worse.
Yup. It’s going to start some social changes as well. The economic struggle is going to lead people to gravitate towards even more polarized leadership. We’ll see what happens, but history shows what happens when times get rough and people are clinging to someone to get them out of it.
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could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.
Might have been a bit of an exagerration to get out $1000 checks swifty, but I didn't exactly crunch the numbers.......
well it is easy for them they just let you take a 0% interest 1000 loan out on yourself. You are paying for it and your ancestors.
Global economies wrecked for years
This virus that is already deadly.. will mutate again and start killing younger people soon too
Time to turn off the Internet... fucks sake, people.
They’ll be replaced, certainly, but a lot of people are going to see their businesses ruined.
People are going to lose businesses over this.
But people need to calm down. Societies ruined? A respected poster on this board said 55 to 65 million people are going to die.
Yes, this is going to be a bitch, but people need to breathe. Go for a walk.
People are going to lose businesses over this.
Thats where fiscal stimulus must kick in (including rent freezes or breaks). And yes, we as taxpayers and a nation pay for that over time. Its also why this MUST be resolved in the next 8 weeks. We at all costs cannot allow this shutdown to persist into July.
Keep people employed and when this blows over, people will consume again....
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.....I think that's a decent projection where we are headed.
People are going to lose businesses over this.
Thats where fiscal stimulus must kick in (including rent freezes or breaks). And yes, we as taxpayers and a nation pay for that over time. Its also why this MUST be resolved in the next 8 weeks. We at all costs cannot allow this shutdown to persist into July.
Keep people employed and when this blows over, people will consume again....
Do you suggest we tell the virus to settle down within 8 weeks, or else? It’s pretty clear that this will go on quite a bit longer than that.
But people need to calm down. Societies ruined? A respected poster on this board said 55 to 65 million people are going to die.
Yes, this is going to be a bitch, but people need to breathe. Go for a walk.
It's the new badge of honor on social media to show just how serious you're taking this.
Do you suggest we tell the virus to settle down within 8 weeks, or else? It’s pretty clear that this will go on quite a bit longer than that.
Based on what data?
And our kids will have no money to inherit from us. Even the life insurance policies wont mean anythign because they're all bankrupt. So our kids get kicked out of our homes, have no parents or grandparents... and have to sell their teeth and hair in the black market to get their meals.
Link?
I’m not saying society is going to collapse, but there are going to be a bunch of people who live paycheck to paycheck that are going to be in a ton of financial trouble at the end of this. Even with $1000 dollar checks (which is laughable).
My niece works 3 jobs has a child to take care of and she isn’t working and $1000 is not going to get her through this. There are a bunch of more people like this in our country and those people are going to want a massive change.
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And our kids will have no money to inherit from us. Even the life insurance policies wont mean anythign because they're all bankrupt. So our kids get kicked out of our homes, have no parents or grandparents... and have to sell their teeth and hair in the black market to get their meals.
Link?
I agree,some people here are utterly fucking hysterical and paralyzed with fear,it passed moronic about 3 exits ago. Yes it's serious,not the end of the world.
It seems akin to selling into a panic.
My father is a broker and he always tells me fundamentals are thrown out the window in a crisis and emotion rules the market.
Just common sense to me says it would make sense to wait it out, once things bottom out and the virus is stabilized THEN introduce the stimulus and inject money into the markets.
Seems like every financial announcement after the one Friday has no or little impact.
It sounds like China and South Korea (if you believe them) are returning to some level of normalcy. Wait it out if we can.
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This is serious. But some people need to get a grip. If we listened to some people here, we might as well accept we're all going to be dead by summer.
I’m not saying society is going to collapse, but there are going to be a bunch of people who live paycheck to paycheck that are going to be in a ton of financial trouble at the end of this. Even with $1000 dollar checks (which is laughable).
My niece works 3 jobs has a child to take care of and she isn’t working and $1000 is not going to get her through this. There are a bunch of more people like this in our country and those people are going to want a massive change.
BBDTS, I'm sorry about your niece. That sucks. I don't really know what to say. This is going to hurt a lot of people no doubt.
It seems akin to selling into a panic.
My father is a broker and he always tells me fundamentals are thrown out the window in a crisis and emotion rules the market.
Just common sense to me says it would make sense to wait it out, once things bottom out and the virus is stabilized THEN introduce the stimulus and inject money into the markets.
Seems like every financial announcement after the one Friday has no or little impact.
It sounds like China and South Korea (if you believe them) are returning to some level of normalcy. Wait it out if we can.
PJ - interesting take.
I'm also a bit skeptical of this $1K or $2K stimulus. We've done this in the past to help with a recession. But in those cases, we could actually go out and spend it. Right now...we are sorta in lockdown.
And while you can spend it online (or to pay bills), as another poster said, not sure how much this amount is really going to help. Don't get me wrong, they're trying and it will always help to handout cash, but it doesn't seem a whole lot for this particular situation.
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This is serious. But some people need to get a grip. If we listened to some people here, we might as well accept we're all going to be dead by summer.
And our kids will have no money to inherit from us. Even the life insurance policies wont mean anythign because they're all bankrupt. So our kids get kicked out of our homes, have no parents or grandparents... and have to sell their teeth and hair in the black market to get their meals.
What is a tooth going for nowadays,
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In comment 14841074 BillKo said:
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In comment 14841064 PatersonPlank said:
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In comment 14841052 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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could hit 20% if things spiral out of control. Good Lord.
If we do nothing was the context. He was laying the justification for the pending $1T+. MSM again sponningvit out of context. All of MSM, on both sides, should be ashamed of themselves.
PP - missed it, what is the MSM doing with the 20% unemployment quote?
For 1 full day it was headlined as "Mnuchen say unemployment to hit 20%', this was on CNN, HuffPo, and Drudge. Fearmongering. Now they at least put in fint print "if we do nothing". Which is closer to what he said. Reality is we are passing all/most of the things he wanted. Mnuchen addressed / clarified it again on CNBC this morning.
Ehhhh, did you read the article on headline only? lol....I mean, that's a bit harsh on the MSM.
He did say that, and that's the headline. I'm sure the article itself expanded on it.
Sure I did, but most people dont.it was also on banners going across the bottom of TV screens
The dow dropped to 6,929 in March of 2009, roughly half of what it was a year earlier. The stimulus package was passed and it took the markets around summer of 2012 to fully recover.
At this rate, the market could lose about 40%, or possibly more. It is going to take a long, long time for it to get back to 28,000. Probably at least a year, if not more.
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The dow dropped to 6,929 in March of 2009, roughly half of what it was a year earlier. The stimulus package was passed and it took the markets around summer of 2012 to fully recover.
At this rate, the market could lose about 40%, or possibly more. It is going to take a long, long time for it to get back to 28,000. Probably at least a year, if not more.
This is completely different. Due to fear of this virus which we still don't understand, the world has been shutdown. Companies are shutting down and people are getting thrown out of work, not because they or their customers are broke, its because due to fear, justified of not commerce is shut down. If this were a normal recession, weak airlines would be bought by strong airlines, new businesses would emerge where old ones failed, and people would get new jobs and start buying again. But today, the country and the world are shutdown, we don't know for how long.
Again, not an expert, but my understanding is the stimulus is to throw a lifeline to businesses/consumers now, to simply keep them in the game, until this passes and an actually recovery can happen. Not thinking the market will bounce back immediately. It's to keep this situation from going recession --> full depression.
Logically it makes sense that if people are defaulting on RE, loans, or losing production capacity, plus mass layoffs, it makes recovery that much harder just to get back to having the capacity to recover.
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but that never stopped me from having an option. It seems like these stimuli and "market injections" are at the wrong time.
It seems akin to selling into a panic.
My father is a broker and he always tells me fundamentals are thrown out the window in a crisis and emotion rules the market.
Just common sense to me says it would make sense to wait it out, once things bottom out and the virus is stabilized THEN introduce the stimulus and inject money into the markets.
Seems like every financial announcement after the one Friday has no or little impact.
It sounds like China and South Korea (if you believe them) are returning to some level of normalcy. Wait it out if we can.
PJ - interesting take.
I'm also a bit skeptical of this $1K or $2K stimulus. We've done this in the past to help with a recession. But in those cases, we could actually go out and spend it. Right now...we are sorta in lockdown.
And while you can spend it online (or to pay bills), as another poster said, not sure how much this amount is really going to help. Don't get me wrong, they're trying and it will always help to handout cash, but it doesn't seem a whole lot for this particular situation.
I would imagine most stimulus would find a way to still be spent. Lower & a large chunk of the middle class are very good about spending, usually out of necessity.
I also wonder about looking into something similar to a 401K fund for every citizen where they are now participating in the markets (and stimulating the markets) and create a timeline/window where they can decide to withdraw earnings without penalties or where the penalties are staggered for a certain amount of time, because that money will be finding it's way back into the economy anyway.
Interesting perspective on why it hasn’t exploded like Italy yet
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There's a really promising peer reviewed study out of France showing that anti-Malarial drugs do really well against the virus.
While the numbers of cases/deaths in Italy is going up and the situation is really bad there, the rate of growth had flattened a bit, so it's worth keeping an eye on things there. If things level off there and start to decrease, we might have an idea of a (realistic hopeful) upper-bound as to how bad things can get here.
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people need to just admit it and start acting like it could take 6 months to 2 years for the markets to fully recover. And that's totally fine. But this nonsense about a trillion dollar stimulus suddenly correcting the market is hilarious.
The dow dropped to 6,929 in March of 2009, roughly half of what it was a year earlier. The stimulus package was passed and it took the markets around summer of 2012 to fully recover.
At this rate, the market could lose about 40%, or possibly more. It is going to take a long, long time for it to get back to 28,000. Probably at least a year, if not more.
If you can guarantee me that the Dow will be back at 28,000 in a year I'd dance a jig, but its more complicated than that. This is very different than 2008. That recession, and every recession before it going back to the Great Depression were caused to some extent by uncontrolled debt. In 2008 it was the housing market. In previous recessions it was corporate debt fueled by junk bonds. In the late 70's early 80's recession it was aggravated by a shortage of a commodity, namely oil. Once debt was reorganized or written off, once some deadwood was trimmed in the market, things got back to normal.
This is completely different. Due to fear of this virus which we still don't understand, the world has been shutdown. Companies are shutting down and people are getting thrown out of work, not because they or their customers are broke, its because due to fear, justified of not commerce is shut down. If this were a normal recession, weak airlines would be bought by strong airlines, new businesses would emerge where old ones failed, and people would get new jobs and start buying again. But today, the country and the world are shutdown, we don't know for how long.
As an example, didn’t the Airlines and Hotel businesses just get a huge tax break, that they used to purchase more of their own shares and payout large bonuses to VPs? (I might have my market terms mixed up, but the point should ring through) Big businesses used the breaks to pay the higher ups more instead of trickling it down to their employees or saving it for an emergency. I’m sure the higher ups of a airline could afford to take less money in the short term to help provide their employees with some relief.
Correct me if I’m wrong and I am not trying to make this political at all, just trying to understand what went on recently.
The Canals in Venice have cleaned up and you can actually fish in them:
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The Canals in Venice have cleaned up and you can actually fish in them:
See fish in them
She remains "open" and operational via phone. After 2 10 minute chats, she prescribed me all the meds I need monthly and a couple of new tools for managing my diabetes.
So "closed" is not an accurate description.
The market has been tumbling down this week, and this is not a decision to close the market entirely, rather it’s a decision based on the virus and keeping it from spreading by moving traders to office work.
The decline in emissions is amazing. I would love to know the breakdown, like how much is from aircraft and how much is from ground transportation. The point is though, if there was the will, we could curb emissions right away.
I’ve played at least 9 every day this week, my one happy consolation.
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Good luck getting on the course soon! With literally nothing to do and golf seemingly the only activity that isn't skirting the recommendations its probably going to be flooded.
Why, because this virus sends many people to the hospital, and not just a couple of days. This threatens the medical system which is very bad.
They sent naval hospital ship to the city too.
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This was a good read. The true numbers not being known is a problem. It also puts into perspective well the damage colds and such do when spread to the lower respiratory system. Maybe it is all much ado about nothing.
Thing is, can you risk it? A high amount of hospitalizations seems to be the norm. The weathering of the acute stage sounds like it could be brutal. Can the nation stand to see a period of weeks where hospitals are overrun and triage is needed to decided who dies blasted all over the media? Tell the many who will lose loved ones in a brutal fashion that attempts at social distancing were not warranted?
Sucks to not be able to get a real handle on who has it.
I'm happy he expounds on forescene variables when making decisions without full data sets. It's very easy to scream shut everything down immediately. The do something, anything crowd. This has essentially been my reasoning during this
""One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.
The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.
One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.""
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my golf club is open
I’ve played at least 9 every day this week, my one happy consolation.
It's almost like when athletes get MRIs and other medical attention. These organizations have access.
So while, yeah, it looks bad...it's just the way it is.
Scientists at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Research Institute in Seattle delivered the first rounds of a potential coronavirus vaccine to several dozen optimistic volunteers earlier this week.
43-year-old vaccine recipient Jennifer Haller, who is also a mother to two teenagers, was all smiles after she told AP reporters she was “feeling great” as she was leaving the clinic. “This is an amazing opportunity for me to do something,” she added.
10 Positive Updates on the COVID-19 Outbreaks From Around the World - ( New Window )
I am over 60, with asthma, so I am a little nervous. Hoping my daughter's test comes back negative.
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that NBA teams like the Nets & Lakers were able to get tests while most Americans can't get one? It just seems a tad wrong to me.
It's almost like when athletes get MRIs and other medical attention. These organizations have access.
So while, yeah, it looks bad...it's just the way it is.
you're allowed to be pissed because something is "just the way it is"
especially when it comes to your life
1. Globalization is not inherently bad. It has turned bad because our economic version of bread and circuses was to create a consumer-driven economy focused on low cost products. Globalization is necessary (actually vital) to our economy, but we overextended.
2. Expect considerable changes in how we view the cost of everyday items, and how quickly we expect to receive stuff. The destruction of the global supply chain (especially its fragmentation) is going to raise shipping times and costs. The supply chain housed in China allowed for low cost, quick shipment to a variety of locales, in part because of their ability to mass produce and restore the supply chain due to any issues.
3. Jerome Powell is going to go down as the worst Fed chairmen in history. And that's notable, since we had a variety of bad ones in the '60s and '70s, and Greenspan in the late '90s.
4. The Fed has absolutely failed. We should have raised the FFR during some of the biggest (self-proclaimed) economic expansions in history. You take the hit then, to provide some ammo in the future. Unfortunately, we have completely eliminated the divorce between politicans (namely, the Executive branch) and the Fed chairman. Until that is restored, the Fed is impotent.
5. Fed liquidity is going to be useless, for the most part. Small business lending cratered in 2007, and despite multiple rounds of quantitative easing, small business lending never recovered. This is going to be yet another nail in the coffin. The only hope is that local and regional economies rally around their non-chain businesses and franchisees. What this means, however, is you can expect further erosion in national chains in the area that used to provide low cost services.
6. The fiscal stimulus ($750 or $850 billion) is not going to be enough, and will likely be focused on all the wrong areas. At this point, you need orders to preclude people or businesses from being evicted due to non-payment of rent, or utilities from shutting people off, or banks from proceeding with repossessions or foreclosures. Without these actions, the economy is going to absolutely tank. Instead, we seem to be focusing on the more "consumerist" aspect of the economy, including airlines and hotels.
7. Mnuchin's claim about 20-percent unemployment is worrisome. First, people respond to words from those in power. I know the hope is to provide a sense of urgency to businesses to forestall business as usual, but I'm pretty sure there are back channels for that, rather than national interviews. Look up the "Paradox of Thrift" if you would like to see the likely consequences from this statement. Second, that is the official unemployment rate, which does not take into account the under-employed (if you work for pay for >1 hour, you are employed) or discouraged workers.
8. The $1,000 stimulus is not going to do much, but it's more effective than previous tax breaks (early 2000's), in large part for the simple reason that this will help alleviate a few weeks of suffering for people, to provide a little bit of safety net. However, it's not enough; 76-percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. If you take a look at the living wage, 2 working adults with 2 children need (at a minimum) $1,372 per week (in Richmond, VA, which is not a terrible cost of living area) to survive. At a minimum.
9. What really needs to happen is some way to alleviate some of the evictions, foreclosures, utility shut-offs, and other activities that will happen. I'd like to think that some of the bigger banks and companies will realize this, but beyond some vague "call this customer service line if you're having trouble", it appears the larger companies are doing diddly shit.
10. Expect a large surge in homelessness. Also expect a large surge in mental health diagnoses from this. People are going to be stressed, emotionally and physically.
11. There's going to be a huge cyclical component to this. Imagine 10-20 years down the line, when this generation of young children gets into the workforce. Parents don't have the means to have someone stay at home with the children to teach them normally, so most instruction is based on the school system. We are missing several formative months for reading, writing, and basic math. That will cost us.
Glad she's home with us though
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In comment 14841629 Paulie Walnuts said:
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my golf club is open
I’ve played at least 9 every day this week, my one happy consolation.
Nice, hit em straight !! got out last night. shot a 41.. not tonight too cold. but hope for thu-fri-sat
Cheers!
This will peak before the season. There's going to be football, just depends on how much preseason these guys are going to get.
Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT)
Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT)
The virus is bipartisan!
Couldn’t watch, any chance for a basic summary or anything new?
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.
This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.
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I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.
This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.
Well, there hasn't really been a generation that has saved effectively. Most people retiring nowadays are going to retire solely on Social Security. The boomers at least have somewhat of an excuse; them living this long was unexpected.
Even countries with high relative savings rates suffer significantly when people retire. Retirement is, largely, not an easily forecastable event.
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.
This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.
Then I realized you also talked beyond retirement, and rainy day funds.
Agree wholeheartedly. At least Millenials are showing an ability to do this right. The biggest issue has been a lack of wage growth, but an increase in what living standards constitute.
That's been a fundamental disconnect in our economy; we are bombarded nonstop with what we could have, and have done a poor job highlighting that these standards may not be attainable.
I live in northern Virginia. Finding ammo is like trying to find toilet paper. My friend and I went to the range today to shoot. Just to really get away from the chaos for a an hour or so...
As we were checking in, I want to say at least 30 people came by asking about ammo. And the number of people looking to purchase was more than I've ever seen...
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.
This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
You have got to be kidding me!
If more people my age could save money they absolutely would! It’s near impossible though. The cost of living is insane, student loans are insane, and there has been so much inflation and absolutely no wage increases.
The top of the pyramids in corporate america suck the working people dry.
Save they say. I’m lucky I can, but took way to long to get to a point where I absolutely could.
I’d like to buy a home and have children with my wife, but it’s really impossible. Try starting a family while going through 2 of the biggest recessions since the Great Depression!
It seems akin to selling into a panic.
My father is a broker and he always tells me fundamentals are thrown out the window in a crisis and emotion rules the market.
Just common sense to me says it would make sense to wait it out, once things bottom out and the virus is stabilized THEN introduce the stimulus and inject money into the markets.
Seems like every financial announcement after the one Friday has no or little impact.
It sounds like China and South Korea (if you believe them) are returning to some level of normalcy. Wait it out if we can.
Exactly. Stimulus will create a false bottom and it will still go further. They should wait until this bottoms. The market is looking for a bail out instead of working toward a bottom. Plus if you are trying to buy the election, just throw more money at it. So much for draining the swamp.
It is then ineffective.
That, and of course trying to forecast or time when the "bottom" is.
It is then ineffective.
That, and of course trying to forecast or time when the "bottom" is.
kickerpa? same poster?
like I said, I'm not an expert.
What if you separate the family stimulus/checks to citizens from market injection (making capital more readily available)?
It just seems like this 1.5 trillion dollar market injection the fed announced (pre stimulus - last week) was not even noticed. It seemed like the downward market pressure was like the market was in free fall and no unnatural act was going to stop it (or is going to stop it).
We largely have to re-understand the purposes of monetary and fiscal policy. The Fed stimulus was an injection into a number of behind-the-scenes liquidity markets, as a way to grease the wheels to keep things from completely falling apart before the fiscal stimulus would hit (at least, that's what I think they're doing; I'm sure smarter people like Bill2 or robc or PhilinWNY could disagree).
Given that there are a lot of under-capitalized smaller regional banks, this was probably a way an attempt to put out some fires that were threatening to jump their own quarantine.
I expect it to have no impact on the economy at all, except to forestall both an exogenous recession (COVID-19), and a recession based on structural issues within the economy (which is why I think a double dip is likely). COuldn't have both hit at once.
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of fiscal policy and it hitting the economy (can be months), waiting for a bottom means that the injection will likely be realized by consumers after the worst has hit.
It is then ineffective.
That, and of course trying to forecast or time when the "bottom" is.
kickerpa? same poster?
like I said, I'm not an expert.
What if you separate the family stimulus/checks to citizens from market injection (making capital more readily available)?
It just seems like this 1.5 trillion dollar market injection the fed announced (pre stimulus - last week) was not even noticed. It seemed like the downward market pressure was like the market was in free fall and no unnatural act was going to stop it (or is going to stop it).
Kicker you make some great points above. Are you the same kicker from years past and come around again? I appreciate your stuff, thank you.
Agreed the government should take care of people and families first before corporations. They should have the money at this point to bail themselves out. I found it interesting that after the 2008 crisis how people started saving. Guess they forgot in the last few years. I do feel bad for hourly employees as they are the first ones to go and feel the most pain. They should be supported first with any stimulus.
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this may also serve as a wake up call that people need a rainy day nest egg.
I'm a firm believer that people can save IF they make it a priority.
This rainy day is why money in the bank is a priority.
Then I realized you also talked beyond retirement, and rainy day funds.
Agree wholeheartedly. At least Millenials are showing an ability to do this right. The biggest issue has been a lack of wage growth, but an increase in what living standards constitute.
That's been a fundamental disconnect in our economy; we are bombarded nonstop with what we could have, and have done a poor job highlighting that these standards may not be attainable.
Part of the problem about saving is for over a decade the interest rates have been punitive to savers. Yes you can invest in stocks, bonds and instruments of varying degrees of liquidity, but if the shit hits the fan like just now, you're taking massive hits to liquidise your assets which is a massive disincentive.
Hopefully all of this inspires real change to save future generations.
Now, we are facing a situation where the worst case scenario is Great Depression level unemployment. I don't think we get there, and I think we come out stronger, but changing the structure of the economy when we may have to quarantine in place is wrong timing.
welcome back, I haven't seen you posting in a long time. Hope you are doing well.
thank you for the reply.
I don't understand the fundamentals behind the economy beyond the required college courses (like most people) but the market (whether a true reflection of the economy or even an indicator) is IMO the main political measure (along with jobs and unemployment). Plus since it's where many people's retirements are dying even if the market a trailing indicator (or completely decoupled) from the economy it's how a lot of people gauge the health of the economy IMO.
so, the extent the market rebounds before November (if at all) will have a massive impact on 11/3 - maybe even more than the underlying fundamentals because like me, most people are economy-illiterate.
I am over 60, with asthma, so I am a little nervous. Hoping my daughter's test comes back negative.
We are pretty sure my wife has it. She has been quarantined for about 14 days. Two weeks ago she came down with fever and sore throat. We went to the doctors and they said it was strep as she tested positive. But she was negative for the flu. They gave her antibiotics and she’s finished them. She was feeling back to normal around day 6/7. Then around day 9 her fever came back, light cough that she didn’t have before, and VERY bad joint pain and lethargy. We went back to the doctors (different doctors this time to get another view point) and they tested her for strep and flu again. She was negative for both. They said it’s not Corona. Gave us no other reasoning. But everything I’ve found online, she’s exhibiting the majority of the symptoms of this thing.
So we called my best friends sister who is a Physicians assistant in Raleigh at the main hospital. She said we should have my wife tested for the flu and if it comes back negative we need to go to the ER. So I told her she was tested twice already and both came back negative she said we should seriously consider the ER. She said the way they are handling things down there, is, when they don’t have the ability to test for it they are testing for the flu. If it comes back negative they are assuming the person has Corona and admitting them if their symptoms are severe.
I’ve made my wife go to bed the last few nights at 745. I’ve been teleworking and watching my 19 month old while she rests. We are waiting for a testing area to open up since none of the doctors we have seen seem to be taking this seriously. But we don’t want to go to the hospital because she’s managing just fine. It’s just a lot of discomfort. We are monitoring her closely though as we are ready to go to the ER if things change. Luckily for us we live walking distance to the hospital.
I don’t know if I had/have it. But we suspect me and my son may have had it and it passed. He had mild symptoms for several days as well as pink eye and an ear infection that they diagnosed and treated the same day we went for my wife’s strep. For about a day and a half I was getting so light headed I almost fainted a couple times. And I’ve read that the severe light headedness is a symptom in many cases. But after that I could go about my day . I didn’t have a fever or cough or anything, but something was definitely up. As of now me and my son run around the house playing like two kids that are enjoying a snow day off from school.
As I’ve stated on this thread before, I don’t think people should panic. And I don’t think people should inundate the health facilities if they can survive. And I’m happy to say that we are practicing what we preach. I’ve notified the few people I was in contact with on the days I went to work. We have covered our bases and are just hoping this is over with soon.
I haven’t wanted to share this on here since we originally were told it was just Strep and we had nothing to worry about. Plus when she came down with the first symptoms it was about a week before the shit hit the fan with the nationwide panic. On top of that she tested positive for Strep so we figured we knew what we were dealing with. So we were pretty sure that’s what we were dealing with. And I just thought based on what the doctors said we were in the clear from corona. But where we sit today with all the symptoms, my friends sisters opinion and the just the awkward timeline and unfolding of her illness, id say my wife most likely has it. I’d have to imagine me and my son would have caught it but I don’t know. The instances of light headedness I listed above was my only sickly feeling to date. We may have done enough to avoid it. I cleaned the house top and bottom and walk around the house with hand sanitizer and am not afraid to use it. My hands are so dry from all the sanitizing and washing they are cracking.
I thought I should finally share this so posters could hear a first hand account of what this thing “possibly” looks like. I will keep everyone posted on if and when we succeed in getting a test, as well as if she shakes this thing or her problems persist or worsen. We aren’t the type to panic, as we believe in the mantra of “cooler heads prevail”. And that’s how we intend to continue managing the situation.
Further info: My wife is an elementary school art teacher. I believe one teacher in the district had tested positive as of this week. Her symptoms as of now, 100.4 degree temp on average, SEVERE aches especially in her hips, extremely tired, and light cough with very very mild shortness of breath. When she tested positive for strep the school system had not shut down. Her first week off school she took sick days as needed. She’s 35, I’m 40, our son is 19 months. We are both active gym members and tend to live healthy lives. Thought these extra bits of Information may be pertinent down the line.
lack of testing is scandalous. wtf!!
Thanks again.
Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!
Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!
Thanks, DCGF. You’re out in MoCo now right? I know they have testing In our old neighborhood in Arlington now. Right off Quincy and Washington blvd. But they won’t let us go there. We have to be currently living in Arlington and have a doctors note from inside the county. We are actually considering going to my old doctor out there and seeing if she will right us a note based on my old address on Stafford St.
The drive through testing they are doing is at that white office building that faces Washington Lee High on the eastern side. If you remember the neighborhood since you moved away.
right now feels sort of like when the hurricane is sitting offshore and people begrudgingly prepped/took it seriously, but then think the weather channel oversold it because "nothing happened" yet. My family members who may have it are now 100% taking it less seriously than they were a few days ago before potentially getting it just bc it hasn't been that bad for them. What comes next is still uncertain bc the testing is still so slow for results and non-comprehensive, and obviously it goes without saying we all are hoping for the best, but I get the feeling those who are getting the info from the front lines are pretty certain that this is going to hit pretty hard over the next few weeks in some real hot spots.
That is the kind of thing people will remember.
absolutely scandalous. we lag behind every major country.
+2. Prayers to you and your family Bob. Best wishes for a negative test result for your daughter.
That is the kind of thing people will remember.
Thanks, PJ. I’m in Virginia. When I was talking about Arlington to DCGF it was Arlington VA I was reflecting to. If that’s why you brought up the Texas governor.
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Out on the west coast, same symptoms, neg for flu. Was tested for COVID-19 a week ago and has not gotten results yet.
Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!
Thanks, DCGF. You’re out in MoCo now right? I know they have testing In our old neighborhood in Arlington now. Right off Quincy and Washington blvd. But they won’t let us go there. We have to be currently living in Arlington and have a doctors note from inside the county. We are actually considering going to my old doctor out there and seeing if she will right us a note based on my old address on Stafford St.
The drive through testing they are doing is at that white office building that faces Washington Lee High on the eastern side. If you remember the neighborhood since you moved away.
I am in MoCo, though in PHX on a layover tonight. It's a ghost town here.
I know exactly where you're talking about in Arlington and it's beyond ridiculous you can't get tested.
When this blows over, drinks on me!
Thank you, Marty. The same to you and your family as well.
That is the kind of thing people will remember.
Gotta love Texas
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In comment 14841931 DC Gmen Fan said:
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Out on the west coast, same symptoms, neg for flu. Was tested for COVID-19 a week ago and has not gotten results yet.
Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!
Thanks, DCGF. You’re out in MoCo now right? I know they have testing In our old neighborhood in Arlington now. Right off Quincy and Washington blvd. But they won’t let us go there. We have to be currently living in Arlington and have a doctors note from inside the county. We are actually considering going to my old doctor out there and seeing if she will right us a note based on my old address on Stafford St.
The drive through testing they are doing is at that white office building that faces Washington Lee High on the eastern side. If you remember the neighborhood since you moved away.
I am in MoCo, though in PHX on a layover tonight. It's a ghost town here.
I know exactly where you're talking about in Arlington and it's beyond ridiculous you can't get tested.
When this blows over, drinks on me!
Thanks, man! I’ll be happy to accept!
Safe travels man. Are the airports empty or do they seem business as usual??
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In comment 14841936 bradshaw44 said:
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In comment 14841931 DC Gmen Fan said:
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Out on the west coast, same symptoms, neg for flu. Was tested for COVID-19 a week ago and has not gotten results yet.
Keeping you guys in my thoughts Bradshaw44!
Thanks, DCGF. You’re out in MoCo now right? I know they have testing In our old neighborhood in Arlington now. Right off Quincy and Washington blvd. But they won’t let us go there. We have to be currently living in Arlington and have a doctors note from inside the county. We are actually considering going to my old doctor out there and seeing if she will right us a note based on my old address on Stafford St.
The drive through testing they are doing is at that white office building that faces Washington Lee High on the eastern side. If you remember the neighborhood since you moved away.
I am in MoCo, though in PHX on a layover tonight. It's a ghost town here.
I know exactly where you're talking about in Arlington and it's beyond ridiculous you can't get tested.
When this blows over, drinks on me!
Thanks, man! I’ll be happy to accept!
Safe travels man. Are the airports empty or do they seem business as usual??
Deserted. As is the hotel.
Thanks again.
Best wishes and prayers for your family. I hope your wife feels better, and that she doesn't have the coronavirus.
Hoping my other locations can hang on. This is a small family run company that I have worked for for 15 years. My wife works here, and the owners are basically family to me. 2 of their adult children work for us. Not a fun time.
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I will definitely keep you guys up to speed on things. I definitely want to share as much of the experience as possible if we get a confirmation after testing. I don’t know anyone that’s had this thing personally so I have to go by what I can find online. So if we do have this thing I will share as much as I can so everyone knows what to look for and what to expect.
Thanks again.
Best wishes and prayers for your family. I hope your wife feels better, and that she doesn't have the coronavirus.
Thank you, AT. I hope she doesn’t either. But my gut isn’t leaning that way.
Hoping my other locations can hang on. This is a small family run company that I have worked for for 15 years. My wife works here, and the owners are basically family to me. 2 of their adult children work for us. Not a fun time.
Aaron, I’m a CPA, and have my own small side business away from my 9-5 handling a handful of clients business taxes. One of the businesses is in an equally bad spot. They are taking loans against the principles life insurance policies to try and see it through these next few months. I’ve also recommended they reach out to their vendors and see if they can get a payment holiday for the next couple of months to help navigate through these tough times. Hopefully your company has considered some of these options. Good luck to you.
- absolutely crushing to her to tell families that they can't see their loved ones who were already in ICU. Also told me stories of multiple ICU patients in obvious states of mental distress/delusion calling out for their family members all at the same time as she enters notes in her computer ("It was fucked up to hear one of the patients yelling for his wife saying 'Karen I'm dying where are you?!', and he isn't in here for corona" - direct quote from my sister)
- 10 patients confirmed in their hospital at this point
- 2 hospital employees also tested positive
- MASSIVE blood shortage. Blood drives have been stopped, so they are now having an employee blood drive to try and make up for some of the shortage. She said the blood shortage is a huge issue nobody is commenting on.
- Cornell is at 90% ventilators, some other hospital in the NE, I think in CT which I can't remember the name of but her friend from med school is a resident at, is at "120% ventilator usage". I believe this means old ventilators are in use.
- Speaking of which, old ventilators are being attempted to be refurbished for use
I know the libertarian crowd will scream bloody murder re: cell phone tracking of citizens. And it requires scaled testing that we were way behind on, but intuitively this seems like it could work.
Regardless, more than two months of this is not economically or socially sustainable.
Twitter - ( New Window )
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In comment 14840336 eric2425ny said:
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In comment 14840333 Chocco said:
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In comment 14840327 Chocco said:
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In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:
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This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.
* Is a bad flu season
I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.
My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?
Learn exponents. Or realize that this infection is rising 33% every few days.
Extrapolate that.
I swear, BBI is the only place where people are still trying to convince themselves this isn't an issue.
BTW, take that extrapolation, divide it by the number of patients who need ventilators due to illness, and compare it to existing ventilators in this country.
Oh also, imagine you or a family member gets sick due to a non covid related issue, and cannot even get into a hospital.
It's unfathomable people are still at the "why is this a big deal?" phase.
Stop blaming CNN or the media or whatever. That's bullshit garbage. China gives no fucks about western media narratives, they're an authoritarian, despotic government complete with internment camps, and they locked their own cities down and committed hari kari when it comes to their economy just to stop the spread.
Look up the growth over the last 3 months and extrapolate them, logarithimically, over the next 6. Then juxtapose that with healthcare availability/
Big fan of OP Sonic Youth, always enjoy your smart and acerbic posts. But I think you’re missing something on this one, which is, you are relying too heavily on epidemiological models that are based on incomplete information and which assume a symmetry between China and the US and even between different populations in the US (for example, using the grim stats of the Kirkland, Washington situation as a starting point to model out predictions for the rest of country). This is especially true regarding future death and hospitalization rates (which ultimately are the whole reason for justifying an societal/economic shutdown).
I know you think that folks who think this is a groupthink overreaction to a (short-duration, 95% mild) virus “don’t understand math” or exponential growth and are anti-science rubes, but for just a minute, play devil’s advocate with your position — look at what the models are and aren’t based on, and consider the asymmetric factors that might impact the “math.”
I’m not going to end this post with a zinger, because I don’t want to try to win an argument with you. This is just an appeal for you and the other “it’s math dummy!” folks to self-challenge some of the models and predictions. No end of post zinger, see! [Also, listen to I Love You Golden Blue off of Sonic Nurse, one of the great songs ever].
I agree that you can't assume a perfect symmetry between china and the US for a variety of reasons -- I'm mostly concerned about hospital capacity and ventiator availability though. Based off of what I'm hearing from physicians in my direct family (as well as politicians), this is going to be a massive, massive issue.
Also, Sonic Nurse is a great album. My favorite song off of it is peace attack.... such a great song. Can't imagine my life if SY didn't introduce me to alternate tunings on my guitar, lol
NIH Director Francis Collins speaks about the coronavirus, his faith, and an unusual friendship. - ( New Window )
https://www.yahoo.com/news/know-going-grocery-store-191228060.html - ( New Window )
The virus is no one's fault obviously, but in early stages of the US was ready to mass test (it is still not) that initial screening could have helped stave off this massive upcoming surge that is the main crisis and given a clearer picture of exactly what is going on. That didn't happen. It did happen in South Korea and they seem to have a bottle on it. Living in NYC, I do wish something similar happened here.
In the movies the feds like the CDC are cutting edge experts who will save the day. In real life, not so much. I am not condemning the individuals, but as an institution they and the Federal Government shit the bed, big time. The cost may be super high. Even the economy may be weathering it better if there was less of a mystery of how many people have this and where breakouts are.
Many on this site have posted many informative posts regarding tests and regulations and the appropriate way to do something like this to reduce risk.
This is addressed in the article.
There are always opportunities to learn from situations like this one,” FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, who has been on the job only three months, told Reuters. “But one thing I will stand firm on: We cannot compromise on the quality of the tests because what would be worse than no tests at all is wildly inaccurate test results.”
Makes sense, but the first test was broken and no one seemed to act to deal with that swiftly. That quote reads like classic CYA to me.
I am not versed in these fields, but when you get down to brass tacks, if South Korea could do it, why couldn't the United States. The article states SK acted in a bold manner while the slow and sclerotic Federal bureaucracy stumbled along impotent.
There is no time machine, but the US is down 28 - 0 in the first quarter of this pandemic, hopefully the country can come back. Lives are at stake.
USA and SK first case same day. SK was ready, USA shit bed - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
two 50-round box per day limit at some local stores here in MA. but you can still get it.
Not sure what I'd do with spring breakers in Florida, but for the ones who have left the country and gone to Mexico or the Bahamas or wherever...I just wouldn't let them back in. Simple as that.
A month from now one of those clips might be followed by the Curb Your Enthusiasm music.
I do as well the word literally is way overused by the younger generations, but they can literally be killing people, but also at 20-23 years old I can't imagine how my asshole adolescent/young adult self would handle this situation. Honestly don't know.
I feel like I've raised my kids right, to do the right thing and be good people, but man, I have two 17-year olds (seniors in high school) home so far for one week (as well as a younger one) and it's like having little law students in here listening to them bargain with me and make their case on why they feel they should leave the house to do certain things. And they cite media reports, statistics, etc.
In the end my kids listen to me, but I can understand why the youth are struggling with this (though to be clear not condoning it at all).
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around these parts.
two 50-round box per day limit at some local stores here in MA. but you can still get it.
I got a package of 4 rolls yesterday, that's the limit.
One roll on paper towels.
Although the food shopping experience was a bit different, found mostly everything I needed.
It must be a really tough in NYS, and some other states!
Hopefully all of this inspires real change to save future generations.
Yes, a cartel of bankers.
I bet you'd be at the beach with a 30 rack of Keystone Light.
From the Times:
“I am not going to imprison anyone in the state of New York,” Mr. Cuomo said on CNN. “I am not going to do martial law in the state of New York. That is not going to happen.”
From the Times:
“I am not going to imprison anyone in the state of New York,” Mr. Cuomo said on CNN. “I am not going to do martial law in the state of New York. That is not going to happen.”
Good for him. I am in no way a supporter of his, however he has done an admirable job in this situation. Kudos to him and god bless the people of NY!
He's definitely running for President in 4 years.
Linked below, online toilet paper "in stock" status tracker
I used this yesterday to find some on Amazon. I did not hoard toilet paper like others.
Link - ( New Window )
Repurposing existing drugs is the best chance to find an effective treatment until a vaccine is available.
Link - ( New Window )
Who's this woman in my house?
As he seems to be one of the only adults in the room, you must be happy it's working for him.
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In comment 14840361 Sonic Youth said:
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In comment 14840336 eric2425ny said:
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In comment 14840333 Chocco said:
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In comment 14840327 Chocco said:
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In comment 14840317 eric2425ny said:
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This whole thing just seems off. CNN, not that they are the most credible news source anymore, but still, put out a state by state list without names of the ages and conditions of the people who have passed. I believe it is 106 so far in the US. All are either elderly and/or have pre-existing medical conditions. I feel awful for all of those people that have passed and their families, but at the same time I thought to myself isn’t this the same group of people that is impacted so severely by the flu each year? What is so different about this virus that is turning the world upside down?
2 things to consider from your post.
1) it is very true that the flu kills a lot of Americans every year and this year was a bad flu season. The Covid-19 virus pandemic is in addition to the regular dangers from the seasonal flu. That alone is troublesome
2) the Covid -19 virus is spreading very fast and we don't have the same treatment options or vaccines for this virus as we do for the seasonal flu particularly for the elderly or medically compromised. They are the ones that need the innoculation and herd immunity and if they don't have it there is a much bigger Target in their back.
* Is a bad flu season
I’m not saying it isn’t potentially more dangerous than the flu, but the flu vaccine is also very unreliable. It covers certain strains, but there are many years where it is less than 50% effective in terms of the strains it covers.
My point is that the flu and COVID-19 are awful, but is this new virus so bad that we are essentially shutting down the world for it? Would it be more effective to quarantine the at risk population for a period of time so a good portion of society could go on working and supporting their at risk relatives and the world economy?
Learn exponents. Or realize that this infection is rising 33% every few days.
Extrapolate that.
I swear, BBI is the only place where people are still trying to convince themselves this isn't an issue.
BTW, take that extrapolation, divide it by the number of patients who need ventilators due to illness, and compare it to existing ventilators in this country.
Oh also, imagine you or a family member gets sick due to a non covid related issue, and cannot even get into a hospital.
It's unfathomable people are still at the "why is this a big deal?" phase.
Stop blaming CNN or the media or whatever. That's bullshit garbage. China gives no fucks about western media narratives, they're an authoritarian, despotic government complete with internment camps, and they locked their own cities down and committed hari kari when it comes to their economy just to stop the spread.
Look up the growth over the last 3 months and extrapolate them, logarithimically, over the next 6. Then juxtapose that with healthcare availability/
Big fan of OP Sonic Youth, always enjoy your smart and acerbic posts. But I think you’re missing something on this one, which is, you are relying too heavily on epidemiological models that are based on incomplete information and which assume a symmetry between China and the US and even between different populations in the US (for example, using the grim stats of the Kirkland, Washington situation as a starting point to model out predictions for the rest of country). This is especially true regarding future death and hospitalization rates (which ultimately are the whole reason for justifying an societal/economic shutdown).
I know you think that folks who think this is a groupthink overreaction to a (short-duration, 95% mild) virus “don’t understand math” or exponential growth and are anti-science rubes, but for just a minute, play devil’s advocate with your position — look at what the models are and aren’t based on, and consider the asymmetric factors that might impact the “math.”
I’m not going to end this post with a zinger, because I don’t want to try to win an argument with you. This is just an appeal for you and the other “it’s math dummy!” folks to self-challenge some of the models and predictions. No end of post zinger, see! [Also, listen to I Love You Golden Blue off of Sonic Nurse, one of the great songs ever].
Ha thanks, most of this board hates me (I think) so nice to see someone who doesn't.
I agree that you can't assume a perfect symmetry between china and the US for a variety of reasons -- I'm mostly concerned about hospital capacity and ventiator availability though. Based off of what I'm hearing from physicians in my direct family (as well as politicians), this is going to be a massive, massive issue.
Also, Sonic Nurse is a great album. My favorite song off of it is peace attack.... such a great song. Can't imagine my life if SY didn't introduce me to alternate tunings on my guitar, lol
Keep the great posts coming Sonic Youth. Agreed this should be taken
seriously. My only plea to everyone out there is try to dig into the reports and data that form the basis of the scary headlines. Dig in and see for yourself whether the data is always as definitive as the headlines scream. And question the antecdotal reports of hospital chaos as well. Follow the protocols and protect the vulnerable — but it doesn’t ever hurt to be an informed and free thinking citizen.
Also, the Iceland situation is very interesting. It’s a small enough country that they are planning to test a big % of the populace. Not trying to be argumentative and cause a riot here ... but the hospitalization rate (and even the noticeable symptoms rate) are incredibly low so far. Some good data to be gained.
Was able to get some stuff for my in laws who are scared to death to even leave the bouse
Couldn't agree more.
Also, the Iceland situation is very interesting. It’s a small enough country that they are planning to test a big % of the populace. Not trying to be argumentative and cause a riot here ... but the hospitalization rate (and even the noticeable symptoms rate) are incredibly low so far. Some good data to be gained. [/quote]
I just read an article that had good news. The Wuhan death rate seems to have dropped to ~.7%. Earlier they had said 4%, but with more testing that has now dropped to 1.4%. They add in their estimates of the number of untested people who have it, and thats how they get to .7%. I believe this is inline with South Korea.
Still worse than the .1% for the flu obviously, but good news that numbers seem to be converging on a better/lower rate.
- the prospect of not being able to receive medical care for something serious (heart attack, fall, stroke, broken bone, allergic reaction, etc etc)
Also, the Iceland situation is very interesting. It’s a small enough country that they are planning to test a big % of the populace. Not trying to be argumentative and cause a riot here ... but the hospitalization rate (and even the noticeable symptoms rate) are incredibly low so far. Some good data to be gained.
I just read an article that had good news. The Wuhan death rate seems to have dropped to ~.7%. Earlier they had said 4%, but with more testing that has now dropped to 1.4%. They add in their estimates of the number of untested people who have it, and thats how they get to .7%. I believe this is inline with South Korea.
Still worse than the .1% for the flu obviously, but good news that numbers seem to be converging on a better/lower rate. [/quote]
Iceland is not much value in these cases (may as well call it Isolated-Land). The mortality rate is something that has to be looked at with respect to the groupings (it won't be something we have a good analysis on until after the crisis passes really). But trends are positive that it's not turning into a mutated killer across all age groups (that's still a legit fear some virologists have - and keep saying we have to be proactive through this year - as some flu or coronaviruses have a tendency to as they say slip and flip around from the trend many expect with increasing exposure and immunity or treatment).
I feel bad for folks taking an economic hit, but for once, I think proactive measures and more stringent protections are being done properly. A little bit of confidence helps breed some hope we'll turn the corner, get some more knowledge on this thing, and win the fight and help as many people as possible and recover socially, economically and invest in our healthcare and socioeconomic system to be prepared for the next test or crisis whether it be natural or manmade.
yup it is why the drive up testing and hospitals setting up outside tents will help immensely..
Plus it being warm outside allows them to work outside comfortablly
- the prospect of not being able to receive medical care for something serious (heart attack, fall, stroke, broken bone, allergic reaction, etc etc)
I wouldnt be surprised if that report was more a scare tactic to get these idiots on the beaches and other places to just get the fuck home
I'm not sure if you're referencing a story about last week, but I don't see anything else close to your description. Don't see any mention of 'public rhetoric', either.
'Mass anxiety is causing problems at hospitals by driving unnecessary traffic to emergency rooms. Hackensack University Medical Center said it was managing the increase in hospitalizations but has been deluged with people with minimal or no symptoms seeking tests at the emergency room. It was diverting those “worried well'' people, up to seven visits an hour on Thursday night, into a separate biocontainment unit to be evaluated, instructed on how to reduce infections and sent home.'
You are just determined to be the last crew member on the SS DENIAL.
People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.
People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.
The guy from Hackensack University Hospital ( not “General”) said that “the worried well are gumming up the system ... they are responding to the public rhetoric and it’s creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Jim, were you able to visit U Texas with your daughter before all this crazyness started?
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An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.
You are just determined to be the last crew member on the SS DENIAL.
So only bad news should be discussed then?
People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.
Agreed. The FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn is now talking about repurposing and using antiviral drugs, and plasma treatments from recovered patients.
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An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.
You are just determined to be the last crew member on the SS DENIAL.
Guilty as charged. But, me and the family are following all the protocols anyway and are doing everything “right” anyway. So it’s only an intellectual rebellion. Two (now teleworking) adults, 4 kids, and 2 cats is a lot of mammals at home 24/7 lol. Thank god for golf and hiking trails.
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Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.
People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.
The guy from Hackensack University Hospital ( not “General”) said that “the worried well are gumming up the system ... they are responding to the public rhetoric and it’s creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
You have 'public rhetoric' in quotes. Where is your story from? The quote I see is this, and it's about last Thursday, nothing today: "Responding to this type of rhetoric is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy."
Link - ( New Window )
Global Tracker of confirmed cases.
New York has almost 3,000 more cases then Washington now.
Stay safe everybody.
yup hopefully death rate stays down
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In comment 14842467 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.
People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.
The guy from Hackensack University Hospital ( not “General”) said that “the worried well are gumming up the system ... they are responding to the public rhetoric and it’s creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
You have 'public rhetoric' in quotes. Where is your story from? The quote I see is this, and it's about last Thursday, nothing today: "Responding to this type of rhetoric is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy." Link - ( New Window )
That’s the story, thx for linking.
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An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.
Jim, were you able to visit U Texas with your daughter before all this crazyness started?
Hey PP, thanks for remembering! Right now she’s between UNC (my alma mater and only 5 hours away from home) and UT honors and whatever pops up on 3/26 when the last admissions decisions come through. If it’s safe to travel around 4/1, we are going to try to fly out to Austin that week. The reports about UT that I’ve been getting are so overwhelmingly positive that I feel that we need to see this shangra-la before any final decision is made.
Thanks again for your input, it was really, really helpful.
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In comment 14842467 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Damn the worried well. Not that I should talk, as I'm the same guy who has a headache, goes to Web MD, & diagnoses myself with a brain tumor.
People just got to R-E-L-A-X, as Aaron Rodgers would say. Unless you DESPERATELY need to, don't go to the hospital. You're doing more harm than good.
The guy from Hackensack University Hospital ( not “General”) said that “the worried well are gumming up the system ... they are responding to the public rhetoric and it’s creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
You have 'public rhetoric' in quotes. Where is your story from? The quote I see is this, and it's about last Thursday, nothing today: "Responding to this type of rhetoric is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy." Link - ( New Window )
I see your point on my misquote — the quote says its the hospital responding to the rhetoric, not the public reacting to the public rhetoric.
I’ve still never been — but honestly, never heard of anyplace with more favorable reactions.
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In comment 14842449 Jim from Katonah said:
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An OP on this board previously reported that a friend who is an HG healthcare worker suggested that the situation is worse than reported. In today’s Washington Post, the HG administrator was quoted as saying that yes, it is chaotic at HG — but only because of waves of anxiety-ridden people are showing up seeking tests and treatment, many of whom have zero or mild symptoms, who he said were inflamed by the public rhetoric.
Jim, were you able to visit U Texas with your daughter before all this crazyness started?
Hey PP, thanks for remembering! Right now she’s between UNC (my alma mater and only 5 hours away from home) and UT honors and whatever pops up on 3/26 when the last admissions decisions come through. If it’s safe to travel around 4/1, we are going to try to fly out to Austin that week. The reports about UT that I’ve been getting are so overwhelmingly positive that I feel that we need to see this shangra-la before any final decision is made.
Thanks again for your input, it was really, really helpful.
Well good luck. Sounds like she has a couple of good choices. Too bad there is no March Madness, both those colleges would be fun if there were games.
can you sum up the story? Are you saying he knew about it....but didn't tell anyone?
I mean...didn't we know it was coming due to what happening overseas?
Game Of Thrones author George R R Martin, 71, suggests he WILL complete the sixth novel in the fantasy series during coronavirus self-isolation... a DECADE after he started it - ( New Window )
I don't think so. I think mdc1 is REALLY simple.
Like, Rich in Houston level.
See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub
Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )
See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )
The link is to the news story...here's the abstract
Lonk - ( New Window )
Ahhh...looks like I jumped the gun. FDA fast tracking but wants to do a large clinical trial. I wonder if people will invoke "right to try"?
See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )
The FDA itself said that’s not true.
Cabin fever. Plus tons of anxiety. I’m a pretty upbeat person ... but I feel so bad for all the service workers and small biz owners who have to make their 4/1 rent and beyond. Order takeout and gift certificates — and when this is over, let’s all try to help our fellow citizens through this.
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I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.
See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )
The FDA itself said that’s not true.
Noted. The initial report stated, "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hydroxychloroquine—a drug used to treat malaria, rheumatic diseases and other conditions—for COVID-19." I didn't see the subsequent reports. As I said, the FDA apparently wants to do a large test.
Anyone else heard this?
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In comment 14842629 rnargi said:
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I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.
See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )
The FDA itself said that’s not true.
Noted. The initial report stated, "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hydroxychloroquine—a drug used to treat malaria, rheumatic diseases and other conditions—for COVID-19." I didn't see the subsequent reports. As I said, the FDA apparently wants to do a large test.
They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.
The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work
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In comment 14842651 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 14842629 rnargi said:
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I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.
See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )
The FDA itself said that’s not true.
Noted. The initial report stated, "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hydroxychloroquine—a drug used to treat malaria, rheumatic diseases and other conditions—for COVID-19." I didn't see the subsequent reports. As I said, the FDA apparently wants to do a large test.
They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.
The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work
FDA head said it's still a few months away as they complete trials on safety.
Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk
·
3h
CNN: More than 10,000 people in the United States have tested positive for coronavirus.
Anyone else heard this?
With 700+ cases as of today and the number rising, how do you propose to stop it? Hasn’t Jersey already shut down all non-essential businesses already?
The current number of deaths in China stands at 3,242, according to the World Health Organization.
Sounds like the 5 D's of Dodgeball:
Dodge, Duck, Dip, Dive, Dodge!
Additionally, the numbers rising aren’t super alarming. We always knew the numbers were way higher than stated.
I’d really like it if we were having a more mature conversation around long-term remedies. The current lockdown solution isn’t tenable, although it’s the only one viable right now due to the short-term unpreparedness. Longer-term, I don’t see an alternative to near universal testing, tracking, enforcement approach with the most at risk in isolation until herd immunity is built/vaccine is released.
The economic devastation may kill more than the virus if this lingers beyond three months. We must start working toward scaled solutions immediately. Not just responding to the immediate term.
Yes - mortality rate is continually dropping as testing is ramping up. Total deaths are 1.3837% of current Positive tests. This number was above 2% a week ago.
COVID-19 Tracking - ( New Window )
They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.
The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work
Business Insider article on chloroquine - ( New Window )
Gidie, this is a global pandemic that is going to get a lot worse for a lot of us in this community in the coming weeks. You might want to ease up on the sheriff routine when people are just saying a politicians name.
They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.
The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work
Hi montana, where did you see that China said ineffective? This article says its one of the approaches theyve been using since mid February.
I dont think anyone is considering using this on anyone that isnt critically ill... sounds like doctors will already give it to patients that ask for it and waive their rights to sue, etc.
Business Insider article on chloroquine - ( New Window )
We already have a semi accurate picture of the mortality rate as long as the health care system holds up , which in a couple places like NYC looks dicey. There is a reason why Fauci came out and said the mortality rate is approximately 1 percent.
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The real question is if the death toll rises too or stays the same (% wise). Obviously we should all be hoping it doesn't rise, and thus drops as a % of cases
Yes - mortality rate is continually dropping as testing is ramping up. Total deaths are 1.3837% of current Positive tests. This number was above 2% a week ago.
COVID-19 Tracking - ( New Window )
A 34-year-old man has died in California after testing positive for coronavirus just days ago, and 2 weeks after visiting Walt Disney World and Universal Studios in Florida.
According to his family, he flew from L.A. to Orlando on March 2 for a work conference, but stayed a few extra days to visit Disney World and Universal theme parks with friends.
We're told on March 7 he developed a cough, and the next day he coughed up blood. He flew back to LAX on March 9 and immediately went to the ER, where he also had a high fever.
Here was the Magic Kingdom on March 15, 6 days after the guy left:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETMPVtFX0AEWghN?format=jpg
link to story - ( New Window )
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They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.
The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work
Hi montana, where did you see that China said ineffective? This article says its one of the approaches theyve been using since mid February.
I dont think anyone is considering using this on anyone that isnt critically ill... sounds like doctors will already give it to patients that ask for it and waive their rights to sue, etc. Business Insider article on chloroquine - ( New Window )
My bad I got mixed up, it was the HIV drug that did not work:
“No benefit was observed,” the researchers wrote in The New England Journal of Medicine.
The study tested Kaletra, a combination of two antiviral medicines, lopinavir and ritonavir, that are normally used to treat H.I.V.
There is no proven drug treatment for the new coronavirus, and doctors around the world have been desperately testing an array of medicines in hopes of finding something that will help patients, especially those who are severely ill. Several antiviral drugs have been considered possible treatments, though so far none has proved effective.
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They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.
The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work
Hi montana, where did you see that China said ineffective? This article says its one of the approaches theyve been using since mid February.
I dont think anyone is considering using this on anyone that isnt critically ill... sounds like doctors will already give it to patients that ask for it and waive their rights to sue, etc. Business Insider article on chloroquine - ( New Window )
How has Elon Musk convinces the world that he is an expert on everything? What the fuck does he know about antiviral drugs?
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In comment 14842659 rnargi said:
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In comment 14842651 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 14842629 rnargi said:
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I read this abstract on this a couple days ago. Now it's going to be used. This could be huge news.
See abstract here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Treatment drug approved by FDA - ( New Window )
The FDA itself said that’s not true.
Noted. The initial report stated, "President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved hydroxychloroquine—a drug used to treat malaria, rheumatic diseases and other conditions—for COVID-19." I didn't see the subsequent reports. As I said, the FDA apparently wants to do a large test.
They have to figure out the proper dosage that's both safe and effective.
The only thing that worries me is that China said they have already done this and it doesn't work
FDA head said it's still a few months away as they complete trials on safety.
I was wrong, I confused this with the HIV drug that failed. My apologies
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A 34-year-old man has died in California after testing positive for coronavirus just days ago, and 2 weeks after visiting Walt Disney World and Universal Studios in Florida.
According to his family, he flew from L.A. to Orlando on March 2 for a work conference, but stayed a few extra days to visit Disney World and Universal theme parks with friends.
We're told on March 7 he developed a cough, and the next day he coughed up blood. He flew back to LAX on March 9 and immediately went to the ER, where he also had a high fever.
Here was the Magic Kingdom on March 15, 6 days after the guy left:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETMPVtFX0AEWghN?format=jpg link to story - ( New Window )
uggh... that is the most frightening story ive heard yet. And it sounds like the hospital really fucked up in that case too.
How has Elon Musk convinces the world that he is an expert on everything? What the fuck does he know about antiviral drugs?
Fellow Penn grad Chris!
My old man was diagnosed with bronchitis this past weekend. I spoke to him yesterday & he's feeling better, but isn't even thinking of leaving the house, something my siblings & I have repeated endlessly about. Thankfully my sister lives close enough to get his groceries.
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How has Elon Musk convinces the world that he is an expert on everything? What the fuck does he know about antiviral drugs?
Fellow Penn grad Chris!
Oh, I know. I met him when he came back to campus a couple years ago. Our fellow alumni are not covering themselves in glory lately...
Additionally, the numbers rising aren’t super alarming. We always knew the numbers were way higher than stated.
I’d really like it if we were having a more mature conversation around long-term remedies. The current lockdown solution isn’t tenable, although it’s the only one viable right now due to the short-term unpreparedness. Longer-term, I don’t see an alternative to near universal testing, tracking, enforcement approach with the most at risk in isolation until herd immunity is built/vaccine is released.
The economic devastation may kill more than the virus if this lingers beyond three months. We must start working toward scaled solutions immediately. Not just responding to the immediate term.
Did you read the article posted here by the professor from Stanford. Lots of good arguments in there for the people that think saving one life today is worth whatever the cost. Its like the old philosophy question, do you save one person today if two will die tomorrow?
My old man was diagnosed with bronchitis this past weekend. I spoke to him yesterday & he's feeling better, but isn't even thinking of leaving the house, something my siblings & I have repeated endlessly about. Thankfully my sister lives close enough to get his groceries.
Yeah i read that - the family did say that was from childhood and he beat it (not exactly sure how one beats that)... sometimes families downplay preexisting conditions but who knows.
Hard to believe a hospital would send someone home to self-heal with a history of asthma, coughing up blood, etc. Family seems pissed and i cant blame them from what was written in the article.
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are off limits here. We have a zero tolerance policy for this on BBI.
Gidie, this is a global pandemic that is going to get a lot worse for a lot of us in this community in the coming weeks. You might want to ease up on the sheriff routine when people are just saying a politicians name.
Chris,
I'm sympathetic. Unfortunately when you mention it even harmlessly in passing - it has a reverberating effect. I'm not saying the responders are smart, but some posters just can't help spewing out crap, and they trigger easily, even after just a casual reference.
I wish everyone here was as smart as you, but they aren't.
Eric has less patience with it than I do.
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In comment 14842706 gidiefor said:
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are off limits here. We have a zero tolerance policy for this on BBI.
Gidie, this is a global pandemic that is going to get a lot worse for a lot of us in this community in the coming weeks. You might want to ease up on the sheriff routine when people are just saying a politicians name.
Chris,
I'm sympathetic. Unfortunately when you mention it even harmlessly in passing - it has a reverberating effect. I'm not saying the responders are smart, but some posters just can't help spewing out crap, and they trigger easily, even after just a casual reference.
I wish everyone here was as smart as you, but they aren't.
Eric has less patience with it than I do.
Hey, I wish everyone here was as smart as me too!!!
I know some posters can’t help themselves. They are awful. But I’m just saying, we are in for a few weeks of major chaos. You might want to let the little stuff slide a little. But do what you want, it’s your house...
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Just got back, 4 hour wait in line to buy a firearm (which I definitely didn't need) and limit to 2 boxes of ammo per person.
I picked up 200 rounds of 9mm and they didn't have much left.
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available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Just got back, 4 hour wait in line to buy a firearm (which I definitely didn't need) and limit to 2 boxes of ammo per person.
I picked up 200 rounds of 9mm and they didn't have much left.
Good luck shooting the virus, lol
I think Avigan showed even more promising results in a Chinese test of 300+ patients (lessening from 11 to 4 days on average).
Yes... and The Last Of Us...
That is not accurate. It has pretty significant side effects.
sport. Great stress reliever and it's become a hobby of mine to try and get as accurate as possible from many distances with many types of firearms.
I actually had a gym class in college called Basic Pistol Marksmanship and was taught basic pistol safety and from them on it just became something i was interested in.
Beaches close; SOCAL beaches still open, as far as I know.
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but I am hearing Governor is going to shut Jersey down. Businesses and such.
Anyone else heard this?
With 700+ cases as of today and the number rising, how do you propose to stop it? Hasn’t Jersey already shut down all non-essential businesses already?
Everything's a ghost town here in South Jersey/shore at night.
NO one is out past 8 pm. SOCH, closed to guests. Adult community club houses, closed. Diners, closed. Gyms, closed.
Bank drive-thrus are open, Wawas are open, car dealerships are open, barber shops are open, Walmart limited hours.
The Sandpaper on LBI has about 4 advertisers in this week's edition. Even Naples in Little Egg Harbor is delivering, which has happened never. Creepy.
Is anybody else as powerless as we are?
I live in Richmond. Far West End.
Thank G-d we don't keep our toilet paper in the fridge.
Is anybody else as powerless as we are?
I live in Richmond. Far West End.
Thank G-d we don't keep our toilet paper in the fridge.
Ugh that sucks. I can handle a few months of self-isolation, but losing power is a killer. Hope they get it back on soon.
Link - ( New Window )
Won't be long till we see more attrition (fatigue, sickness, stress, etc.) from the medical personnel.
Lots of capable people will be out of work needing to get paid. I hope they can cut the red tape and quickly screen/train those willing to assist for very concise but needed functions. I think we are gonna need them.
@AdamSchefter
·
5m
Saints’ HC Sean Payton tested positive for the coronavirus, he told ESPN on Thursday. Payton is the first person in the NFL world known to test positive for the virus.
Link - ( New Window )
Is anybody else as powerless as we are?
I live in Richmond. Far West End.
Thank G-d we don't keep our toilet paper in the fridge.
Henrico?
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available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Just got back, 4 hour wait in line to buy a firearm (which I definitely didn't need) and limit to 2 boxes of ammo per person.
I picked up 200 rounds of 9mm and they didn't have much left.
One of the places I went to the other day has a very militia/anti-government vibe to the absolute extreme. But usually they are fairly well stocked. They weren't. So I milled around just to hear the conversations taking place.
Boy, were things tense. Not my cup of tea, but had I stayed a few more minutes, they may have convinced me to buy an AR-15, some kevlar, and a gas mask... ;)
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like there looks to be little downside for negative effects. It may not work but it at least does not sound harmful unless used 5 continuous years. We could all use some hopeful news right now.
That is not accurate. It has pretty significant side effects.
From what I read the Chloroquine seems to have a decent chance for negative side effects , the Hydrochloriquine is much safer and had little side effects with the exception of prolonged use . Where did you see hydrochloroquine is full of negative side effects ?
The morale is pretty low right now already it seems.
Yeah, because outside of some idiots, we aren't taking it seriously...
Yeah, because outside of some idiots, we aren't taking it seriously...
Millions of people are not taking it seriously. Look around. We are surrounded by morons.
I believe all air domestic air travel (save for cargo) should be halted immediately.
Otherwise, this country will be passing Covid-19 back and forth from one region to another. The virus will be in a constant boomerang state for a very, very long time.
Not good.
@Breaking911
·
7m
BREAKING: Senate GOP direct cash payment proposal for coronavirus relief:
• $75k and under: $1,200 for individual, $2,400 for couple filing jointly
• $75k-99k: scales down from $1,200
• $99k+: no payments
• Adds $500 per child
Based on 2018 tax return
(NBC News)
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Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
7m
They may need the minimum
BREAKING: Senate GOP direct cash payment proposal for coronavirus relief:
• $75k and under: $1,200 for individual, $2,400 for couple filing jointly
• $75k-99k: scales down from $1,200
• $99k+: no payments
• Adds $500 per child
Based on 2018 tax return
(NBC News)
200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.
200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.
Where are you getting this information that 20% will need intensive hospital care and another 30% will need "some" hospital care (and by "some" you estimate 1 week for that 30% group "sparing us of the boring math"). I like boring math. Can you show me where you came up with the idea that a total of 50% (i.e. 20% + 30%) of the Americans who become infected with this will need to be hospitalized for extended periods of time?
Is there any scientific evidence that the malarial drug, Chloroquine, has any benefit in the fight against Covid-19?
Or, is this simply a case of "Well, it won't hurt, so we might as well give it a shot?"
Quote:
Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
7m
BREAKING: Senate GOP direct cash payment proposal for coronavirus relief:
• $75k and under: $1,200 for individual, $2,400 for couple filing jointly
• $75k-99k: scales down from $1,200
• $99k+: no payments
• Adds $500 per child
Based on 2018 tax return
(NBC News)
What are the corporations getting? Because this looks like the upper Middle Class is going to get screwed
Yeah I could live without it but it’s very skewed against a lot of people who may need it. NYC. Bay Area. Seattle LA etc
I guess when they label it recovery rebate it's not supposed to be a stimulus and I'm definitely not complaining since to this point my family has not yet been impacted financially.
So, I'm grateful for that.
Just not sure 2018 tax return would cover people who have been impacted by something that happened in 2020 and was not really predictable. IOW someone who was laid off or an hourly worker due to coronavirus maybe in 2018 had different circumstances. Or maybe in 2018 they had different circumstances and are totally fine right now.
Wife sometimes says I save too much and have to live for today
But she has changed her tune about that She knows I am stressed if we don’t have 6 figures liquidity
And we vacation like 5x a yr too
She is involved with access with tpmg/kaiser permanente in Bay Area
They aren’t destroyed as of now but they are planning for a tsunami
Wife sometimes says I save too much and have to live for today
But she has changed her tune about that She knows I am stressed if we don’t have 6 figures liquidity
And we vacation like 5x a yr too
She is involved with access with tpmg/kaiser permanente in Bay Area
They aren’t destroyed as of now but they are planning for a tsunami
You are my favorite new poster.
You are continuing to make posts about either senators or congress that we have had to delete. If you persist we will terminate your BBI account.
We appreciate your football posts and hope you will take this under advisement.
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available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Just got back, 4 hour wait in line to buy a firearm (which I definitely didn't need) and limit to 2 boxes of ammo per person.
I picked up 200 rounds of 9mm and they didn't have much left.
Defending your toilet paper?
You always have to be skeptical of anything the Chinese say. They certainly have an incentive to be part of the solution. And confirming that result would be great. But....
That said, things really seem to be moving on the treatment end of the equation.
Link - ( New Window )
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like there looks to be little downside for negative effects. It may not work but it at least does not sound harmful unless used 5 continuous years. We could all use some hopeful news right now.
Is there any scientific evidence that the malarial drug, Chloroquine, has any benefit in the fight against Covid-19?
Or, is this simply a case of "Well, it won't hurt, so we might as well give it a shot?"
I read an article on my work desktop PC on MSN but can't seem to find now on my mobile phone forgive me. I am paraphrasing, but it said in France 22 people who had the virus took hydrochloroquine a lot were having bad lung issues . I think 6 days later 70% had little issues and all recovered . Vs only 12.5 percent improved with the control group who didn't take it. Also said it was safe enough to be given to pregnant women in the past.
I have even heard its effective to take prior to help prevent the virus. I obviously have not had time to vet all this but I have been looking for any positive news the past week from many different corners of the internet. This seemed like most reasonable vastly available option I have come across. It probably won't be the be all cure but if it could help some critically infected recover or save lives with little negative effects it's worth a shot. Sorry about my lack of sources but a Google or duckduckgo search filtered for the past 24 hrs should yield some results. Stay safe out there bbi
Wife sometimes says I save too much and have to live for today
But she has changed her tune about that She knows I am stressed if we don’t have 6 figures liquidity
And we vacation like 5x a yr too
She is involved with access with tpmg/kaiser permanente in Bay Area
They aren’t destroyed as of now but they are planning for a tsunami
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Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
7m
BREAKING: Senate GOP direct cash payment proposal for coronavirus relief:
• $75k and under: $1,200 for individual, $2,400 for couple filing jointly
• $75k-99k: scales down from $1,200
• $99k+: no payments
• Adds $500 per child
Based on 2018 tax return
(NBC News)
What are the corporations getting? Because this looks like the upper Middle Class is going to get screwed
Well I guess i'm no longer eligible. Which is fine i guess... but why are they doing it this way instead of just ramping up unemployment benefits? So if your family made $75k in 2018, and lets say you're a teacher who isnt going to lose your job to this... you still get $1,200 bailout, while earning your current salary?
What?
U have been affected financially
Wifey took a step back when I told her that on paper, we probably dropped 225k already
But on the flip side, if we don’t need it until 2035 she knows it doesn’t matter
Quite honestly just looking to come out of this with our health, we will figure out the finances. She is a pediatrician, I am a CPA
She is good at her job. Me? I find myself barely competent but it’s a field u can usually find some work any tax season
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In comment 14843003 pjcas18 said:
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Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
7m
BREAKING: Senate GOP direct cash payment proposal for coronavirus relief:
• $75k and under: $1,200 for individual, $2,400 for couple filing jointly
• $75k-99k: scales down from $1,200
• $99k+: no payments
• Adds $500 per child
Based on 2018 tax return
(NBC News)
What are the corporations getting? Because this looks like the upper Middle Class is going to get screwed
Well I guess i'm no longer eligible. Which is fine i guess... but why are they doing it this way instead of just ramping up unemployment benefits? So if your family made $75k in 2018, and lets say you're a teacher who isnt going to lose your job to this... you still get $1,200 bailout, while earning your current salary?
What?
Delaware is a representative cost-of-living state. The living wage is $16.55 per hour (2 working adults with 2 children). That works out to about $1,400 per week in necessities. So, essentially 17 days of expenses are covered.
That's slightly higher than the incubation period for current infected.
The point is, the stimulus is not near enough, and though well-intentioned (and politically valuable), will probably be ineffective for preventing the worst of what can come.
At this point, is a national debt holiday really out of the question?
So, unless the economy has not been as strong as what the numbers have reported, we've decided to keep kicking ourselves in our own dicks for a decade so that we have limited ability to actually help ourselves out when we face a real crisis.
You are continuing to make posts about either senators or congress that we have had to delete. If you persist we will terminate your BBI account.
We appreciate your football posts and hope you will take this under advisement.
Noted. Not sure why my email would have bounced though.
U have been affected financially
Wifey took a step back when I told her that on paper, we probably dropped 225k already
But on the flip side, if we don’t need it until 2035 she knows it doesn’t matter
Quite honestly just looking to come out of this with our health, we will figure out the finances. She is a pediatrician, I am a CPA
She is good at her job. Me? I find myself barely competent but it’s a field u can usually find some work any tax season
Of course, I've lost a significant amount of my 401k and other investments (on paper), but this action from the government has very little to do with that directly.
Stimuli, as I understand them, are to influence growth.
This seems more like a UBI (like I said initially) because IMO it's meant to maintain, not grow.
either way, I still have a job and am getting paid, as is my wife, and that was obviously the point i was making.
Sorry, but this seems wild and maybe reckless. What's the assumption? That there is no social distancing, everyone doesn't cover their cough, everyone shakes hands, etc?
LINK - ( New Window )
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In comment 14843029 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14843003 pjcas18 said:
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Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
7m
BREAKING: Senate GOP direct cash payment proposal for coronavirus relief:
• $75k and under: $1,200 for individual, $2,400 for couple filing jointly
• $75k-99k: scales down from $1,200
• $99k+: no payments
• Adds $500 per child
Based on 2018 tax return
(NBC News)
What are the corporations getting? Because this looks like the upper Middle Class is going to get screwed
Well I guess i'm no longer eligible. Which is fine i guess... but why are they doing it this way instead of just ramping up unemployment benefits? So if your family made $75k in 2018, and lets say you're a teacher who isnt going to lose your job to this... you still get $1,200 bailout, while earning your current salary?
What?
Is the $500 per child universal or is eligibility based on the same scale for the other break? Upper middle class screwed indeed. It looks like I'm not eligible unless they are talking about taxable income. But, I am certainly in need.
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200 million infected, 20% need intensive hospital care time 2/3 = 13.3 million people who need intensive hospital care at the peak. We have spare capacity for about 20 - 30K intensive are patients. That means that 99.9% won't get care. They will die.
200 million infected, 30% need some hospital care (probably not 5 weeks lets say 1 week more boring math, that represent about 16% during the peak or 1 out of 6), that is another 10 million hospital bed required or a total of over 23.3 million beds. There will be additional deaths in this category because no medical attention is possible. Lets say 7%, that is another 700K dead or a total of 23.3 + .7 = 14M dead or about 4% of the US population.
Where are you getting this information that 20% will need intensive hospital care and another 30% will need "some" hospital care (and by "some" you estimate 1 week for that 30% group "sparing us of the boring math"). I like boring math. Can you show me where you came up with the idea that a total of 50% (i.e. 20% + 30%) of the Americans who become infected with this will need to be hospitalized for extended periods of time?
I took the numbers from articles about Italy...
They actually have 60% of all infected patients hospitalized, though I think that number is lower now.
They have needed "significant" supportive care for 20%. I don't know what significant means though. About number vary but somewhere between 11 and 14% have required either an oxygen mask or a ventilator. There were some things that were not clear to me at the time, but there has been more information since. People who wind up on a ventilator are in the hospital for about 5 weeks, but only on the ventilator for 10 - 12 days. Also, if they die, they usually die withing 5 - 8 days on the ventilator or oxygen mask. So the ventilators and oxygen masks free up quicker than my assumption. However even if you reduce that average ventilator time to 10 days, 22% of people who need ventilators need them during the peak. Its still orders of magnitude more than what we have.
You hear hospitals, and government leaders sounding the alarm about ventilators, masks, hazmats suits. All stuff I have been saying for the past few weeks. All the epidemiological experts are now agreeing, we are on the Italy curve, not the SK curve.
Here is a site that lets you easily calculate values from a normal curve.
http://onlinestatbook.com/2/calculators/normal_dist.html
I did my own calculations in excel, but its all the same...
In my curve I used 122 day duration with a standard deviation of 18... The Imperial London College study that some have referenced here used about a 90 day duration with a standard deviation of about 12. This produces an even more frightening curve. That report is pretty scary if you understand it (some of it is tough, the tables at the end are not put in good context, it took me a long time to truly understand them, what they say is not pretty). And they used some extremely optimistic data points that are just not supported by the numbers we see outside of China. If you look into SK's number they also had about 20% that needed significant supportive care (in none of these articles is that defined), they also needed ventilators for about 8 - 9%. Far exceeding the optimistic numbers in that report. SK is trending towards about 1.5% mortality rate with quality care for all infected patients (also significantly higher than the assumption in the Imperial College Study).
What we are seeing is a real time study in what happens when the hospitals can handle the load, and when they are overwhelmed. The mortality rate is much much higher when the hospitals get overwhelmed. That was one of the major points I was trying to make, along with the fact that the cost in the do nothing scenario (which some thought we should follow) is far higher than shutting down.
All that said, I don't recall all things I have read as of a few days ago when I made that post, but you can google for things like Italy treatment percentage (or South Korea) and various similar things and find some articles.
Sorry, but this seems wild and maybe reckless. What's the assumption? That there is no social distancing, everyone doesn't cover their cough, everyone shakes hands, etc? LINK - ( New Window )
Reports from infectious disease specialists and research associates from the litany of world-class universities in California?
It's not shit thrown at a wall...
/slaps face to forehead
It's a mystery so far way some get mild cases and other severe. Some think it's the amount of virus one is exposed to initially.
b. There is (at best) a 33-percent difference in standard deviations. That's...um...an interesting analysis to take. Not rigorous, but interesting. Why not choose infinity billion?
The reality is what is happening in Italy is about to happen throughout Europe, UK and USA. Not to mention 3rd world countries where there is not healthcare to speak of, and social distancing is not feasible. There are about 1.7 billion living in 3rd world countries where there is no real healthcare available.
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said he expects at least half of California to contract Corona.
Sorry, but this seems wild and maybe reckless. What's the assumption? That there is no social distancing, everyone doesn't cover their cough, everyone shakes hands, etc? LINK - ( New Window )
Reports from infectious disease specialists and research associates from the litany of world-class universities in California?
It's not shit thrown at a wall...
I've read 50% from plenty of places - nationally - universally - including Dr Fauci, also an Israeli scientist who helped defeat Ebola... Merkel in Germany said 70%. You're in all likelihood not going to keep it lower than that.
THe goal is to delay transmission so our health care system has a fighting chance. Not to necessarily reduce infection which is an impossible task unless majestically the summer heat kills this thing (no one knows).
Also while quarantine just delays the inevitable... it does give us more time to try and find vaccines/cocktails that can further reduce the death rates.
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In comment 14843140 bw in dc said:
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said he expects at least half of California to contract Corona.
Sorry, but this seems wild and maybe reckless. What's the assumption? That there is no social distancing, everyone doesn't cover their cough, everyone shakes hands, etc? LINK - ( New Window )
Reports from infectious disease specialists and research associates from the litany of world-class universities in California?
It's not shit thrown at a wall...
I've read 50% from plenty of places - nationally - universally - including Dr Fauci, also an Israeli scientist who helped defeat Ebola... Merkel in Germany said 70%. You're in all likelihood not going to keep it lower than that.
THe goal is to delay transmission so our health care system has a fighting chance. Not to necessarily reduce infection which is an impossible task unless majestically the summer heat kills this thing (no one knows).
Also while quarantine just delays the inevitable... it does give us more time to try and find vaccines/cocktails that can further reduce the death rates.
I'm a fan of further lockdowns. It's spreading in California, but you have a bunch of yahoos who think it's funny to go around and potentially spread it.
This isn't the death knell of society, but the fact that we have ding dongs questioning decades of experience because they googled shit for 15 minutes is rearing it's head big time right now.
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said he expects at least half of California to contract Corona.
Sorry, but this seems wild and maybe reckless. What's the assumption? That there is no social distancing, everyone doesn't cover their cough, everyone shakes hands, etc? LINK - ( New Window )
Reports from infectious disease specialists and research associates from the litany of world-class universities in California?
It's not shit thrown at a wall...
It feels like it.
Is there anywhere on the planet - even in the third world parts - where the contract rate is even close to that?
I'll stand corrected if there is...
It's a mystery so far way some get mild cases and other severe. Some think it's the amount of virus one is exposed to initially.
Maybe because some people have stronger immune systems than others?
Around 250k cases
10k deaths
90k recoveries
The rest I guess still on going
Still way too much. But will take those odds if I get it
Why didn't even 50% of Wuham get it?
Believe what you want from China, but they claim ~81,500 confirmed cases and that number seems to have leveled off.
Wuhan alone has a population of 11M, but somehow half of the 40 million people in California are going to get it.
Something doesn't add up.
And let's face it: there are people who are going to get it & have no effects/so mild that they never even get tested. Hell, you or I could have this thing & not even know it without testing.
South Korea is at 1.0% mortality rate and 99% of current cases are mild. They did see a bit of a spike in new cases today to 152 though after 3 days running less than 100. Also keep in mind SK has an older population.
SK statistics March 19 - ( New Window )
Beyond that, we have to realize that this is a novel virus, which means that we are creating potential forecasts, with a variety of confidence intervals.
So, just because one forecast says 50-percent does not mean that it's going to happen: we can change our behaviors based on these estimates, and potentially slow the spread of the disease.
So, yes, they may be reporting worst case estimates based on forecasts. But just like they also report the best case estimates of unemployment, it is important to understand both the floor and the ceiling, to determine how to react accordingly.
Link - ( New Window )
I'm a fan of further lockdowns. It's spreading in California, but you have a bunch of yahoos who think it's funny to go around and potentially spread it.
This isn't the death knell of society, but the fact that we have ding dongs questioning decades of experience because they googled shit for 15 minutes is rearing it's head big time right now.
Thanks kicker - enjoy your posts. I think 99% of us agree a lockdown right now makes sense. But when you say "further lockdowns" - at what point do we decide to go back to normal assuming higher degree of confidence that only 0.2% of people under 60 yrs old die from this.
If the economy doesnt get back to it by July, save for maybe crowded sports events or international business travel... we're going into a Great Depression that will make the Great Recession of 2008-2009 look like a walk in the park.
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I'm a fan of further lockdowns. It's spreading in California, but you have a bunch of yahoos who think it's funny to go around and potentially spread it.
This isn't the death knell of society, but the fact that we have ding dongs questioning decades of experience because they googled shit for 15 minutes is rearing it's head big time right now.
Thanks kicker - enjoy your posts. I think 99% of us agree a lockdown right now makes sense. But when you say "further lockdowns" - at what point do we decide to go back to normal assuming higher degree of confidence that only 0.2% of people under 60 yrs old die from this.
If the economy doesnt get back to it by July, save for maybe crowded sports events or international business travel... we're going into a Great Depression that will make the Great Recession of 2008-2009 look like a walk in the park.
Yeah. I don't envy anyone who has to make those decisions. I don't know. Is there a possibility of re-infection (or are you completely immune from re-infection)? Does the communicability change at all in the intervening months?
At this point, I think this economy is going to take a strong hit, without some novel measures. Debt holiday, maybe? I don't know.
We have to be very careful, because as you rightly pointed out, this has the potential to be Great Depression bad.
No country want to show their true death rates and be blamed.. with environmental and financial conditions in China and India, how could they not have wide spread cases?
Yeah, but is that the likely outcome? Or do we gain enough antibodies to prevent mass re-infection?
I don't think there's any consensus (yet).
Pennsylvania going on full lockdown for 3 weeks started at 8..
they only have 200 cases
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In comment 14837560 bw in dc said:
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available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Just got back, 4 hour wait in line to buy a firearm (which I definitely didn't need) and limit to 2 boxes of ammo per person.
I picked up 200 rounds of 9mm and they didn't have much left.
Defending your toilet paper?
No asshole.. it is panic move just like the TP run... If things get chaotic people will resort to any means necessary.. including robbing and looting.. I am surprised I had to explain this to you..
Why didn't even 50% of Wuham get it?
Believe what you want from China, but they claim ~81,500 confirmed cases and that number seems to have leveled off.
Wuhan alone has a population of 11M, but somehow half of the 40 million people in California are going to get it.
Something doesn't add up.
I’ve been wondering the same thing.
Startling similarities ...
https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-is-traveling-along-the-new-silk-road/
And let's face it: there are people who are going to get it & have no effects/so mild that they never even get tested. Hell, you or I could have this thing & not even know it without testing.
Here's my hunch on that - I think it may be some psychological gambit to compel people to take their responsibility more seriously. Which has some merit...
But, to date, there is NO evidence that the contract rate is close to 50%...fingers seriously crossed. ;)
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50% of China get it?
Why didn't even 50% of Wuham get it?
Believe what you want from China, but they claim ~81,500 confirmed cases and that number seems to have leveled off.
Wuhan alone has a population of 11M, but somehow half of the 40 million people in California are going to get it.
Something doesn't add up.
I’ve been wondering the same thing.
Because of their draconian lockdown. People were not allowed to leave their home at all.
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50% of China get it?
Why didn't even 50% of Wuham get it?
Believe what you want from China, but they claim ~81,500 confirmed cases and that number seems to have leveled off.
Wuhan alone has a population of 11M, but somehow half of the 40 million people in California are going to get it.
Something doesn't add up.
I’ve been wondering the same thing.
This is really interesting. I know we could say China is not being trutful about their positives, but could it also be they simply haven't tested everyone?
I mean....you never really know if half of Calif is infected unless you test everyone.....so maybe more of a projection that will probably never know?
Today I went for a run & saw a group of about 6 to 7 guys probably in their early 20s playing basketball. I wanted to go all old man on them, but they probably wouldn't listen anyways.
onky life sustaining businesses are open, grocery stores, gas stations etc
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In comment 14843174 pjcas18 said:
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50% of China get it?
Why didn't even 50% of Wuham get it?
Believe what you want from China, but they claim ~81,500 confirmed cases and that number seems to have leveled off.
Wuhan alone has a population of 11M, but somehow half of the 40 million people in California are going to get it.
Something doesn't add up.
I’ve been wondering the same thing.
Because of their draconian lockdown. People were not allowed to leave their home at all.
Yep, the pictures over there look like nothing over here.......
If we get through the 1st wave, like the Chinese apparently have, the 2nd wave is also to be feared ....
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fatigue-carrier-second-coronavirus-wave-220016488.html
But alas, we have to many RIGHT NOW, running around saying "If I get coronavirus, it's gonna happen; in the meantime I'm gonna party !"
50’s now
Felt a little cold or allergies so stayed out of our small office. Probably the weekend
We are spread apart. 4 people. Got my own office. Shares kitchen that we have been wiping down with disinfectant. I spray my office stuff with Lysol. Wash hands ten times a day. All 4 of us go from office to home
Occasionally pass some paperwork back and forth
Think fairly low risk doing that. Probably lower then being near wife who is at dr office or hospital. But they are doing a lot video, telephone visits plus obviously lotsa screening before anyone is allowed in.
So stats in a hospital setting are gonna look bad. The unlucky 20% are the ones going there
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In comment 14842770 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 14837560 bw in dc said:
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available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Just got back, 4 hour wait in line to buy a firearm (which I definitely didn't need) and limit to 2 boxes of ammo per person.
I picked up 200 rounds of 9mm and they didn't have much left.
Defending your toilet paper?
No asshole.. it is panic move just like the TP run... If things get chaotic people will resort to any means necessary.. including robbing and looting.. I am surprised I had to explain this to you..
For me it wasn't a panic move, but a reaction to the panic move.
I read that ammo was being hoarded and sold out everywhere, so I enjoy going to the range and shooting firearms are a stress reliever and as a hobby and i felt like it might be a good activity to do during this chaos.
Many times I'm the only one at the club, let alone out at the outdoor range.
I could go through 500 rounds in just a couple hours at the range.
So, before supply dried up because of the panic buying I wanted some so I could use it recreationally.
I do think some people are panic buying and preparing for the worst as you mention, and to be honest, it's none of my business, if they want to be prepared for an unlikely, but worst case apocalyptic scenario. I would feel like I let my family down if it came to it and I had the means but wasn't prepared. I have no qualms for anyone who feels they're doing what they need to (within the law) to make themselves feel safe or feel like they can protect their family.
I don't know.
And while I can't believe I'm saying this, the best thing to happen may be one of the Kardashians getting COVID-19, having more than just a mild case, recovering, and then doing a PSA why we need to be more vigilant.
Let's face it - we live in a world where an ungodly number of people will listen to celebrity over political leaders...
& yet the average American struggles to get tested...
& yet the average American struggles to get tested...
I dont get it, they have no symptoms
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When you say lockdown, do you mean that people can't leave their houses?
onky life sustaining businesses are open, grocery stores, gas stations etc
Thankfully I believe they sell liquor/beer @ grocery stores in PA, Haha.
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someone was re-infected (one of the cruise ship people).
Yeah, but is that the likely outcome? Or do we gain enough antibodies to prevent mass re-infection?
I don't think there's any consensus (yet).
There is a British doctor on youtube who has been doing a good job daily of providing updates and his own perspective in medicine. His name is Dr. John Campbell (you can look him up). He discussed the Japanese case you are talking about and he said it is likely that he had a longer period of infection and didn't actually clear it all the way and they tested him too soon. All the other information strongly points that once the body fights it off, it provides the antibodies needed for protection as is the case for any other virus.
Additionally, he said he thinks soon enough you will see governments test not only if the virus is present, but they will also test to see if people have anti-bodies already so they can know (after the fact) that they already had it and are immune and can't spread it again. It will be critical to get that data because we aren't able to test.
The one scary thing he said, he thinks this new way of life could last a year, which is horrifying and I'm hoping medical science can come up with some treatments as a vaccine is approved. In his mind, until there is a vaccine he thinks this might be a new way of life.
[quote] In comment 14843201 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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A complete lockdown ala Italy doesn't really seem to be realistic. I guess things can change though, especially in a fluid situation like this.
Pennsylvania going on full lockdown for 3 weeks started at 8..
they only have 200 cases [/quote
Link? I don't see this anywhere.......
Link - ( New Window )
Maybe better off
Hope those guys are doing alright.
Shit. I found out in elementary school, but that was 35 years ago.
I think I'm a universal donor. Whichever one that is.
(Frantically Googling how one determines their blood type to no avail.)
I read an article that said all the cases of supposed re-infection (and there were just a few), were because of faulty initial tests. In other words the person never actually got rid of it. According to all the experts I've read/heard, once you get this once you won't get it again.
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In comment 14843084 .McL. said:
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In comment 14842770 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14837560 bw in dc said:
Quote:
available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Just got back, 4 hour wait in line to buy a firearm (which I definitely didn't need) and limit to 2 boxes of ammo per person.
I picked up 200 rounds of 9mm and they didn't have much left.
Defending your toilet paper?
No asshole.. it is panic move just like the TP run... If things get chaotic people will resort to any means necessary.. including robbing and looting.. I am surprised I had to explain this to you..
For me it wasn't a panic move, but a reaction to the panic move.
I read that ammo was being hoarded and sold out everywhere, so I enjoy going to the range and shooting firearms are a stress reliever and as a hobby and i felt like it might be a good activity to do during this chaos.
Many times I'm the only one at the club, let alone out at the outdoor range.
I could go through 500 rounds in just a couple hours at the range.
So, before supply dried up because of the panic buying I wanted some so I could use it recreationally.
I do think some people are panic buying and preparing for the worst as you mention, and to be honest, it's none of my business, if they want to be prepared for an unlikely, but worst case apocalyptic scenario. I would feel like I let my family down if it came to it and I had the means but wasn't prepared. I have no qualms for anyone who feels they're doing what they need to (within the law) to make themselves feel safe or feel like they can protect their family.
I actually saw this mass ammo buying or hoarding a month ago. The two sites I usually by from I monitor daily, a few times a day... bulk ammo was going at an unreal rate. By the hour... I thought " What an I missing? Why?" Got my 1000 round 62 grain 5.56 and 1000 round 9mm when I could. Along with hollow points for all as well as my 357 magnum. I am glad I did...
The R0 is an incredible 2.3 to 2.5. That is astronomical. Dr. Sanjay Gupta said that 80% of those affected were infected by someone who didn't even know they had it. That is because the disease is easily transmitted before symptoms even appear.
Social distancing isn't enough to stop the spread of a disease that spreads as easily as COVID-19. We would have to completely socially isolate ourselves for two months, which is unrealistic. And even now, that might not "bend the curve" enough to prevent hospitals and the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. I saw an estimate that 25.5 million people in California will eventually be infected. Forty to seventy percent of Americans will likely contract COVID-19.
Social distancing is fine. But we need to acknowledge that stopping the spread of the disease is impossible, and move as quickly as possible to developing treatments until a vaccine is available. Repurposing existing drugs, especially antivirals, are our best hope.
Effective treatment is really the only way to prevent a national medical and economic catastrophe. There are about 320 million people in the U.S. Even a 40% infection rate is still 128 million people. A 1% fatality rate means 1.28 million dead. To that would have to be added an unknown but large number of people with other medical conditions who die because they cannot receive treatment. That number would probably increase the total dead to two million. And that is a best case scenario.
We decided after reading up on the ER admittance processes for our region of NoVA that we would start the process just in case things went in a worse direction. The first thing we found was that we are supposed to call the ER to talk to them about if/when we should decide to come and what we would need. The ER told us to leave a message with details as well as to call the Loudoun Dept of Health to consult with them. We left the message for the ER. After that we called Loudoun Dept of health. We got a voice mail there and were prompted to leave a detailed message and someone would call us back the same day. The message also said to call our GP and see if they would give us a notice that they agreed with our assessment of her being a possible corona victim. So we let the detailed message for the dept of health. After that we called my GP. We called them three times actually and kept getting the music and waiting loop. Which also gave you an option to leave a message. We finally decided to leave a message and again it said they would call us back same day. So we had done the first steps of the possible admittance and then began our day.
Today I made her sleep most of the day though. After we ate breakfast we each did some tidying up around the house and small tasks we each wanted to do while sharing time with our 19 month old. She then went off to bed and me and my son played and then napped together.
Around 230 my wife got up. She was feeling a little bit better. We ate a late lunch at that point. The sun had just come out and it was beautiful so we saddled up our two dogs and put shoes on our son and went for a walk around the neighborhood. One thing I noticed during lunch but didn’t bring up was she didn’t cough for about 30 minutes. I didn’t tell her because I didn’t want her to think about it and start up again because she’s thinking about it. We thought the sunlight could help as the vitamins from direct sunlight do help with healing. We avoided any other people that we saw out. Never came within 100 yds of anyone. We did about a twenty five minute loop around.
After we got back in she watched my son for a couple hours while I caught up on work. After I was done I heated up some food for us for dinner and we all sat and ate. Then she said she thought a hot bath with her soap that is specifically for helping bring out sicknesses, sounded like a good idea. So she took a bath for about twenty minutes. After that it really seemed like she was feeling better. The aches were almost completely gone and her attitude and just overall being was the most lively and positive I’ve seen in two weeks. I actually could feel my stomach unclench a bit. I didn’t realize I was even tense until I saw her feeling well.
After that we gave my son a bath and played with him for a bit before she went off to bed again around 745. Just before she went up for bed she was still feeling good. It was great to see.
My son wanted to go upstairs a few minutes ago so we went up to see her and chat. She was lightly coughing again and said she couldn’t be sure but she may have some shortness of breath. We talked about it and she did say that it’s not a laboring type of breathing issue where she’s just sitting there having trouble breathing. She said she noticed it when she walked up the stairs to go to bed. We both kind of think that was more related to being sedentary for a couple weeks and the lethargy in general but said we will keep tabs on it. So that was a little worrying but I think our thought process is correct.
Overall I think today was the first real step towards us getting passed this thing and being able to move on to thinking and planning about how life is going to be financially and just in general day to day after this all passes. Hope I’m right.
As for the call backs from the health professionals: We did not receive any call backs. I guess I don’t blame them as I’m sure they are inundated like no other. And my messages were very even keel and thoughtful. No panic. And I think they know people in my shoes would show up at the ER full throttle if things turn bad. I would like them to eventually call back within a somewhat reasonable time period though.
So it gets passed and passed untill we reach a critical point where more people have already gotten it and then it dissappears. All you can do is slow the numbers, unless you wanted to go full lockdown, meaning not even leaving the house.
I know for myself, I've been locked down in my basement/office since Monday morning. I commute to the city every day, took NJT and subways, etc. I did all the right things (washed hands, had purell before the mad rush). Over the weekend I started to feel tired, scratchy throat a bit, some stomach issues, but didn't think much of it. I slept like crap Sunday night and had a slight fever 99.5 as I woke up. I immediately put myself in the basement away from my family and have run a constant fever of 99-100, a little cough but no anything more than clearing my throat. The main symptoms I've had are just waves of being tired, no appetite, and the fever comes and goes. After I rest, I feel fine and then run down again. The fever broke last night and it came back for a bit today, but overall I actually feel fine.
My point of saying this. I'm generally a healthy person. I don't get sick often. I got the flu shot. I called my doctor on Monday and explained everything to him because I knew you don't just show up nor rush to a hospital. He basically told me, you won't even get tested, don't bother going. Just rest, take tylenol, and stay away from everyone for 2 weeks. So for me, I'm curious if I should go to Bergen Community just to know if I have it or not but from what I'm seeing now, since I don't have respiratory issues (knock on wood), and the fever is kind of gone, they wouldn't test me. So when you look at these numbers of who has it, to me it's a joke. I'm pretty sure I have it and (hopefully) I've turned the corner on it and will be fine and didn't get my family sick. But I'm going to be a good citizen and stay where I am for another week. However, I can easily see how someone would just go out and spread it around. All in all, if there wasn't this big push to get this info out there, I'd have sucked it up and gone out and done my thing. Anyway, rant off for me. I'm hoping they do get that test to check for antibodies so I can know if I've already gone through it, or I just caught the flu (my money is on that I have/had it).
I mean since china sat on it for a month and allowed it to get out.
The public was not going to quarantine or shelter in place in January or February when the numbers of confirmed cases were so low and even if the ability existed to test everyone, no one who wasn't showing symptoms was going to be tested. This was always going to spread. I would love to hear a realistic explanation to when it wasn't too late to stop it from spreading short of closing the border completely.
This was always about treatment and flattening the curve IMO from the moment it got out of China.
Only, because of the coverup/lack of information there wasn't time to adequately gauge the severity, but IMO, as a non-expert this was never not going to spread.
If you are one of those people who need to continue to look back or blame someone the biggest failure is probably the lack of equipment that would be reasonably expected to be needed in event of a pandemic in general (masks, ventilators, a process to enable mass testing, etc. - things not specific to the actual pandemic, but pandemics in general seems like they were missing).
but I don't find that blame game to productive while in the throes of it. That's for another time.
Effective treatment will substantially reduce that number. Let's hope hydroxychloroquine is the answer.
Ha, what sucked was I was planning on cranking out a bunch of reviews now that I'm stuck at home, and then this happened. But I'll get on it next week.
+2. Best wishes to Matt in SGS and everyone else as well.
@mental_floss
· 2h
George R.R. Martin is apparently using his self-quarantine to work on 'The Winds of Winter,' the long-awaited sixth book in his 'A Song of Ice and Fire' series. https://mentalfloss.com/article/620821
from the article:
George R.R. Martin Says He's 'Writing Every Day' In Self-Isolation, Teasing The Winds of Winter Release
Quote:
Mental Floss
@mental_floss
· 2h
George R.R. Martin is apparently using his self-quarantine to work on 'The Winds of Winter,' the long-awaited sixth book in his 'A Song of Ice and Fire' series. https://mentalfloss.com/article/620821
from the article:
George R.R. Martin Says He's 'Writing Every Day' In Self-Isolation, Teasing The Winds of Winter Release
If he could get this thing out now, it would be the only chance his book sells.
Thanks, SFGF, that’s what we are going for as well. Fingers crossed.
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Great to hear man! Hope she feels better by the day.
+2. Best wishes to Matt in SGS and everyone else as well.
Thank you, AT, much appreciated.
Plaquenil/hydroxychloroquine has many side effects.
If a patient has multiple disease states, drug interaction are worrisome and potentially going to prevent them from administering. Not everyone can receive it.
Biggest issue - supply chain is tapped. Whoever has stock is basically it for now. Mylan is ramping up production, but the drug production is scaled based on Malaria - not a worldwide pandemic.
It also is treating symptoms of the virus, not curing it.
Its a weapon in the arsenal, but not a silver bullet.
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Mental Floss
@mental_floss
· 2h
George R.R. Martin is apparently using his self-quarantine to work on 'The Winds of Winter,' the long-awaited sixth book in his 'A Song of Ice and Fire' series. https://mentalfloss.com/article/620821
from the article:
George R.R. Martin Says He's 'Writing Every Day' In Self-Isolation, Teasing The Winds of Winter Release
Only took a pandemic to get him to do it. Wonder if it ever would have been done if something like this didn’t happen.
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Quote:
Mental Floss
@mental_floss
· 2h
George R.R. Martin is apparently using his self-quarantine to work on 'The Winds of Winter,' the long-awaited sixth book in his 'A Song of Ice and Fire' series. https://mentalfloss.com/article/620821
from the article:
George R.R. Martin Says He's 'Writing Every Day' In Self-Isolation, Teasing The Winds of Winter Release
If he could get this thing out now, it would be the only chance his book sells.
Are you kidding? As pissed off as hard core fans are, this may be the #1 selling book of all time after the bible and dictionary.
Plaquenil/hydroxychloroquine has many side effects.
If a patient has multiple disease states, drug interaction are worrisome and potentially going to prevent them from administering. Not everyone can receive it.
Biggest issue - supply chain is tapped. Whoever has stock is basically it for now. Mylan is ramping up production, but the drug production is scaled based on Malaria - not a worldwide pandemic.
It also is treating symptoms of the virus, not curing it.
Its a weapon in the arsenal, but not a silver bullet.
Is this the malaria treatment?
So it gets passed and passed untill we reach a critical point where more people have already gotten it and then it dissappears. All you can do is slow the numbers, unless you wanted to go full lockdown, meaning not even leaving the house.
I absolutely expect a high % to contract the virus. I’m just disputing the 50% projection based largely on what you wrote in your second sentence - a lot more people simply won’t get it because they have the right immune system. And, historically, there aren’t viruses that contagious.
Look, no one takes this more seriously than me. I’ve been a practicing member of the hypochondriac society for many, many years. I’m in the health care space and follow virus outbreaks closely. So I’m all in basically going Martial Law to try to bend the spread...
My other worry right now is Central America. That is not a section of the world with state of art healthcare systems or strong governments. I could easily see that becoming our Italy next door...
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This is gathered from a discussion my family of pharmacists had earlier on Facetime (based on an emergency meeting one attended).
Plaquenil/hydroxychloroquine has many side effects.
If a patient has multiple disease states, drug interaction are worrisome and potentially going to prevent them from administering. Not everyone can receive it.
Biggest issue - supply chain is tapped. Whoever has stock is basically it for now. Mylan is ramping up production, but the drug production is scaled based on Malaria - not a worldwide pandemic.
It also is treating symptoms of the virus, not curing it.
Its a weapon in the arsenal, but not a silver bullet.
Is this the malaria treatment?
Correct - it is completely unobtainable right now.
That may change, but we are likely sitting on an even smaller stock of this than we are testing kits.
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If he could get this thing out now, it would be the only chance his book sells.
Are you kidding? As pissed off as hard core fans are, this may be the #1 selling book of all time after the bible and dictionary.
You really think that anyone other than hardcore fans are buying this book? I know a lot of people that picked up the books during the show and they have no interest in the last book anymore.
Shakespeare wrote King Lear when quarantined during the Plague.
We all gotta do our part to do what we do best during tumultuous times. I'll drink beer & post on BBI, :-)
Shakespeare wrote King Lear when quarantined during the Plague.
We all gotta do our part to do what we do best during tumultuous times. I'll drink beer & post on BBI, :-)
I didn't know that. Thanks. Stay safe.
Yes, but it's really because their "wet markets" - essentially their meat markets to buy live animals to butcher and eat - are so unregulated and filthy that they are breeding grounds for these transmissions. Unless they reform these ancient forms of commerce, these situations aren't going away.
Good link below about this...
LINK - ( New Window )
China shut down travel from city to city, and the vast majority of their population isn't moving around from city to city, especially since ground zero where the lower classes. If you manage to keep it in one region there is no way for it to escape. That isn't happening here. And that time way passed anyway.
The have basically declared Wuhan an enemy of the state and are not letting anyone in or anyone out within a certain perimeter. I'm not sure it will work, but if any can pull it off it's China based on the heavy hand of the state...
Wowza.
Wowza.
PA doing the same.
Plaquenil/hydroxychloroquine has many side effects.
If a patient has multiple disease states, drug interaction are worrisome and potentially going to prevent them from administering. Not everyone can receive it.
Biggest issue - supply chain is tapped. Whoever has stock is basically it for now. Mylan is ramping up production, but the drug production is scaled based on Malaria - not a worldwide pandemic.
It also is treating symptoms of the virus, not curing it.
Its a weapon in the arsenal, but not a silver bullet.
The Australians seem to be more optimistic, including about the side effects, but nobody really knows. I still think it's worth trying.
Bayer donated three million malaria tablets to the U.S.
Link
Link - ( New Window )
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In comment 14843312 Zeke's Alibi said:
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If he could get this thing out now, it would be the only chance his book sells.
Are you kidding? As pissed off as hard core fans are, this may be the #1 selling book of all time after the bible and dictionary.
You really think that anyone other than hardcore fans are buying this book? I know a lot of people that picked up the books during the show and they have no interest in the last book anymore.
Game of Thrones (book 1) sold 25M copies worldwide.
So, sure I was hyperbolic with my post, some of the classics, or Dickens books, Harry Potter, LOTR, for example had to sell 10 times that, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see 50M copies of Winds of Winter sold.
I’ve already made 2 trips this week, ha! Priorities.
If we go into lockdown, that won't suffice. Haha. I'll stock up.
You ever see what a Chinese "wet" market is ? Sketchy shit ! Virus can emerge from things like that . No snack on bat !
Hoping I can get to Home Depot tomorrow, I need charcoal...
Wish I had gone to the grocery store earlier. I feel like the later you wait, the higher risk you have in catching.
NJ has had this in place the past few days as well. They just closed down barber shops, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and others yesterday or today. This after shutting down gyms, movie theaters, etc. earlier this week.
So it’s not a literal ‘lock-down’ where you are stuck inside but rather shutting down anything that’s not necessary to sustain living. How a liquor store falls into that category I don’t know but I’m not complaining.
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How did China manage to shut this down completely? In a country of 1.4 billion people? So many people that have this covid19 are asymptomatic. How did the Chinese manage to keep this covid19 only in Hubei? No other country has come close to keeping this thing within any border. And, as questioned above, how is that half of this county is expected to get this virus when only a fraction, a tiny fraction, of the country of origin got the virus? I get the draconian Chinese containment, but does that really explain how they were able to shut down something so contagious?
China shut down travel from city to city, and the vast majority of their population isn't moving around from city to city, especially since ground zero where the lower classes. If you manage to keep it in one region there is no way for it to escape. That isn't happening here. And that time way passed anyway.
My sister lives in Beijing. She has been in her apartment for 6 weeks straight. She said they finally seem to have a handle on this thing. But they aren’t messing around when it comes to people out in public. They are literally locked the F down.
No its not a best case scenario, because your 1% fatality rate is not based on any hard evidence.
What we have right now are fatalities as a % of known cases. Even in China, the cases are highly skewed to the highest risk. Its an incredibly flawed statistic - albeit i get why people are using it, we dont have much else to work off of in the absence of universal testing of every citizen, including children that have virtually zero risk to this disease.
This situation will not correct itself or get better until we are locked down, and I don’t think this country will comply without military orders and enforcement - per Zekes comments above. I am seriously pessimistic at this point, and very concerned for all of our financial futures and health. The poor decisions to keep businesses open in the short term are going to hammer us all in the long run. Sorry for the rant..
I am sorry, everyone has a brother, friend, co-worker...with first hand China knowledhe
I believe nothing about of from China.
This is from two days ago on reuters, yet we have posters with relatives in Beijing that claim things are still "locked the fuck down"
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - As shops shut their doors across Europe and the United States, in China the sharp drop in new coronavirus cases has encouraged consumers to venture back into malls and restaurants - for the most part quite gingerly but occasionally in throngs.
Helping consumers return has been a loosening of quarantine and other restrictions on business and social activity. Restaurants that have satisfied authorities with plans for curbing the risk of infection are now allowed to serve groups of diners and most stores have reopened, though big brands like IKEA and Apple Inc (AAPL.O) have restrictions on crowds.
After being mostly cooped up at home for weeks, Chen Jiayi, a 21-year-old college student in Shanghai, said it was like coming up for air when she went out on Saturday to buy coffee and cake.
“There were quite a lot of people in the city center, it was a completely different picture from the end of February. There were even queues at the bubble tea and biscuit shops,” she said. ...
Hundreds of shoppers thronged Apple’s stores on two main shopping streets in Shanghai over the weekend. IKEA, which opened three of its Beijing stores on March 8, saw high visitor numbers and queues as it implemented new social distancing rules such as only four people per elevator, state media reported.
And hotpot restaurants in the central city of Chongqing, where the dish is much beloved, were inundated with customers after they were allowed to reopen, with reported waiting times of 6 to 8 hours, TV broadcasts showed. .....
link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
I am sorry, everyone has a brother, friend, co-worker...with first hand China knowledhe
I believe nothing about of from China.
This is from two days ago on reuters, yet we have posters with relatives in Beijing that claim things are still "locked the fuck down"
Quote:
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - As shops shut their doors across Europe and the United States, in China the sharp drop in new coronavirus cases has encouraged consumers to venture back into malls and restaurants - for the most part quite gingerly but occasionally in throngs.
Helping consumers return has been a loosening of quarantine and other restrictions on business and social activity. Restaurants that have satisfied authorities with plans for curbing the risk of infection are now allowed to serve groups of diners and most stores have reopened, though big brands like IKEA and Apple Inc (AAPL.O) have restrictions on crowds.
After being mostly cooped up at home for weeks, Chen Jiayi, a 21-year-old college student in Shanghai, said it was like coming up for air when she went out on Saturday to buy coffee and cake.
“There were quite a lot of people in the city center, it was a completely different picture from the end of February. There were even queues at the bubble tea and biscuit shops,” she said. ...
Hundreds of shoppers thronged Apple’s stores on two main shopping streets in Shanghai over the weekend. IKEA, which opened three of its Beijing stores on March 8, saw high visitor numbers and queues as it implemented new social distancing rules such as only four people per elevator, state media reported.
And hotpot restaurants in the central city of Chongqing, where the dish is much beloved, were inundated with customers after they were allowed to reopen, with reported waiting times of 6 to 8 hours, TV broadcasts showed. .....
link - ( New Window )
the CBA is also starting back up again and asked american playerd to come back
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In comment 14842770 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 14837560 bw in dc said:
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available ammo. I like to shoot for the sport sometimes.
They usually have close to 100+ pistols on display for purchase. Today they were down to eight and out of almost any ammo. One of the owners said he’s never seen demand like this in a long, long time...
Just got back, 4 hour wait in line to buy a firearm (which I definitely didn't need) and limit to 2 boxes of ammo per person.
I picked up 200 rounds of 9mm and they didn't have much left.
Defending your toilet paper?
No asshole.. it is panic move just like the TP run... If things get chaotic people will resort to any means necessary.. including robbing and looting.. I am surprised I had to explain this to you..
It was a joke jerkoff... pjcas and I have been joking about it for days.
I know we have bigger fish to fry but this is completely outrageous.
Makes my blood boil.
I know we have bigger fish to fry but this is completely outrageous.
My blood is boiling...
Between this and the CDC telling me to use a bandana or scarf on my face
I know for myself, I've been locked down in my basement/office since Monday morning. I commute to the city every day, took NJT and subways, etc. I did all the right things (washed hands, had purell before the mad rush). Over the weekend I started to feel tired, scratchy throat a bit, some stomach issues, but didn't think much of it. I slept like crap Sunday night and had a slight fever 99.5 as I woke up. I immediately put myself in the basement away from my family and have run a constant fever of 99-100, a little cough but no anything more than clearing my throat. The main symptoms I've had are just waves of being tired, no appetite, and the fever comes and goes. After I rest, I feel fine and then run down again. The fever broke last night and it came back for a bit today, but overall I actually feel fine.
My point of saying this. I'm generally a healthy person. I don't get sick often. I got the flu shot. I called my doctor on Monday and explained everything to him because I knew you don't just show up nor rush to a hospital. He basically told me, you won't even get tested, don't bother going. Just rest, take tylenol, and stay away from everyone for 2 weeks. So for me, I'm curious if I should go to Bergen Community just to know if I have it or not but from what I'm seeing now, since I don't have respiratory issues (knock on wood), and the fever is kind of gone, they wouldn't test me. So when you look at these numbers of who has it, to me it's a joke. I'm pretty sure I have it and (hopefully) I've turned the corner on it and will be fine and didn't get my family sick. But I'm going to be a good citizen and stay where I am for another week. However, I can easily see how someone would just go out and spread it around. All in all, if there wasn't this big push to get this info out there, I'd have sucked it up and gone out and done my thing. Anyway, rant off for me. I'm hoping they do get that test to check for antibodies so I can know if I've already gone through it, or I just caught the flu (my money is on that I have/had it).
Matt, even though I had the flu shot earlier this year, I got the flu from my son, symptoms start on Feb 4th so I don't think it was coronavirus... Except for the first night of fever which spiked up to 102.8, the rest of the symptoms you are describing sounds like the flu that I had. Starting every evening around 6pm, my fever would go up to about 100 for about 4 more days. The coughing for me was brutal, but I have mild asthma.
I know we have bigger fish to fry but this is completely outrageous.
Take the money and throw them in Jail.
I know we have bigger fish to fry but this is completely outrageous.
I just saw this, too.
I'm on the right side of the aisle, but this is grounds for removal - at the very least...
Link - ( New Window )
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Can we please, for the love of god, prosecute the sitting congressmen and women who dumped stocks based on insider knowledge while downplaying the impacts publicly?
I know we have bigger fish to fry but this is completely outrageous.
I just saw this, too.
I'm on the right side of the aisle, but this is grounds for removal - at the very least... Link - ( New Window )
He had written an Op Ed piece stating that we were prepared for this crisis. He didn't even comment on it after having meetings predicting this crisis. Instead he sold his hotel stocks. He should be removed and face prosecution for insider trading.
We all knew about this disease in China, and we all knew our borders were pretty much open for business. I sold 25% of my holdings in early February because i thought our stock market was euphoric and something was going to bring it down... shame on me for holding onto the other 75%, especially financials.
Sounds like they talked to some industry experts and came away frightened... the same thing your fund advisor, asset management company or hedge fund might do after talking to a subject matter expert, or company management executive.
But... i'm all for a hearing down the line to better understand the details.
This is dangerously becoming political so lets watch ourselves.
I have tried to say this many times. I have first hand contact with 1 person in Wuhan, and several others in other parts of China. There were many more infected than the Chinese government is admitting, and far far more dead than they are admitting. They all say or hint that the numbers are off by at least 10x maybe more...
Plus China instituted their shutdown when they reached 400 known new cases per day... The US is now getting over 4000. Now consider there is no Chinese style shutdown, and probably never will be.
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Can we please, for the love of god, prosecute the sitting congressmen and women who dumped stocks based on insider knowledge while downplaying the impacts publicly?
I know we have bigger fish to fry but this is completely outrageous.
I just saw this, too.
I'm on the right side of the aisle, but this is grounds for removal - at the very least... Link - ( New Window )
Barr may have a defense. In many high positions, you need to file paperwork weeks ahead of stock transactions. He says in his defense that this happened, and it was well before any of this stuff became serious. At least he has something to lean on here. The lady however is screwed and should be prosecuted.
This situation will not correct itself or get better until we are locked down, and I don’t think this country will comply without military orders and enforcement - per Zekes comments above. I am seriously pessimistic at this point, and very concerned for all of our financial futures and health. The poor decisions to keep businesses open in the short term are going to hammer us all in the long run. Sorry for the rant..
There is no common sense out there, overwhelmingly, and unfortunately no common decency. Without rules in places being strictly enforced, people will continue to do what they want, congregate, stroll the neighborhoods, hoard necessities, etc.
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Or more drastic measures. I also know for a fact a shit ton of people do not understand the concept of social distancing. My family largely included. People don’t realize that having a couple people over the house - Isn’t social distancing!! Also the spring break scenes across this country are disturbing.. I just don’t understand.
This situation will not correct itself or get better until we are locked down, and I don’t think this country will comply without military orders and enforcement - per Zekes comments above. I am seriously pessimistic at this point, and very concerned for all of our financial futures and health. The poor decisions to keep businesses open in the short term are going to hammer us all in the long run. Sorry for the rant..
I agree. Within about an hour of the mayor announcing schools closing in NYC on Sunday, a couple of moms in my complex were talking about having playdates. We have a gated complex with a courtyard so the condo board sent a memo about limiting guests to your apartment and sure enough, yesterday, someone has friends with their little ones playing in the courtyard. Fuck no! Limit your fucking guests and keep the common areas clear.
There is no common sense out there, overwhelmingly, and unfortunately no common decency. Without rules in places being strictly enforced, people will continue to do what they want, congregate, stroll the neighborhoods, hoard necessities, etc.
Its just not something anyone is used to. I'm even struggling with my wife right now who wants the nanny over every day, gets within 3 feet of her to talk, wants to go to stores/dentist/hair on weekends, etc. Wants to get together with another couple and kids that is basically self-isolating to give our kids something look forward to...
People think they're invincible... the problem with this is... THERE ARE NO DO-OVERS. Even if you're in your 40s and 0.15% to die... once you get it, its Russian Roulette, and its not even quickly over, i mean this thing is so evil, you initially get sick... then you actually think you're over it a few days later... and then 3 days later it comes back at you with 10x the power. It's unreal how evil this thing is.
The person I know in Wuhan said that there are drones everywhere. If the spot a person outside, they are told to get inside, if they are not inside fast enough, there is militia that arrest them within minutes.
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In comment 14843391 Mellowmood92 said:
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Or more drastic measures. I also know for a fact a shit ton of people do not understand the concept of social distancing. My family largely included. People don’t realize that having a couple people over the house - Isn’t social distancing!! Also the spring break scenes across this country are disturbing.. I just don’t understand.
This situation will not correct itself or get better until we are locked down, and I don’t think this country will comply without military orders and enforcement - per Zekes comments above. I am seriously pessimistic at this point, and very concerned for all of our financial futures and health. The poor decisions to keep businesses open in the short term are going to hammer us all in the long run. Sorry for the rant..
I agree. Within about an hour of the mayor announcing schools closing in NYC on Sunday, a couple of moms in my complex were talking about having playdates. We have a gated complex with a courtyard so the condo board sent a memo about limiting guests to your apartment and sure enough, yesterday, someone has friends with their little ones playing in the courtyard. Fuck no! Limit your fucking guests and keep the common areas clear.
There is no common sense out there, overwhelmingly, and unfortunately no common decency. Without rules in places being strictly enforced, people will continue to do what they want, congregate, stroll the neighborhoods, hoard necessities, etc.
Its just not something anyone is used to. I'm even struggling with my wife right now who wants the nanny over every day, gets within 3 feet of her to talk, wants to go to stores/dentist/hair on weekends, etc. Wants to get together with another couple and kids that is basically self-isolating to give our kids something look forward to...
People think they're invincible... the problem with this is... THERE ARE NO DO-OVERS. Even if you're in your 40s and 0.15% to die... once you get it, its Russian Roulette, and its not even quickly over, i mean this thing is so evil, you initially get sick... then you actually think you're over it a few days later... and then 3 days later it comes back at you with 10x the power. It's unreal how evil this thing is.
Ok MAB... Seem like you are thinking about this thing differently that a few days ago...
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In comment 14843412 threeofakind33 said:
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Can we please, for the love of god, prosecute the sitting congressmen and women who dumped stocks based on insider knowledge while downplaying the impacts publicly?
I know we have bigger fish to fry but this is completely outrageous.
I just saw this, too.
I'm on the right side of the aisle, but this is grounds for removal - at the very least... Link - ( New Window )
Barr may have a defense. In many high positions, you need to file paperwork weeks ahead of stock transactions. He says in his defense that this happened, and it was well before any of this stuff became serious. At least he has something to lean on here. The lady however is screwed and should be prosecuted.
Starting to appear that several of them sold or filed to sell large amounts immediately after a 1/24 closed door meeting on the virus. Bad optics, depending on their trading history.
High Temps and Humidity may help - ( New Window )
Ok MAB... Seem like you are thinking about this thing differently that a few days ago...
Funny, i was going to comment on your backtracking yesterday but refrained. I have always taken this seriously - it will take 0.5-1.0% (worst case) of those infected, primarily ages 60+ (and as my wife and I have all 4 parents still alive, knock on wood... that matters)
I found your 7% fatality stat the other day absurd, and commented as such. You do seem a little stressed about this and hope you've calmed a bit. It helps no one, and some of your modelling is a little off too. But, I know your heart is in the right place. Its a stressful, emotional time.
We all knew about this disease in China, and we all knew our borders were pretty much open for business. I sold 25% of my holdings in early February because i thought our stock market was euphoric and something was going to bring it down... shame on me for holding onto the other 75%, especially financials.
Sounds like they talked to some industry experts and came away frightened... the same thing your fund advisor, asset management company or hedge fund might do after talking to a subject matter expert, or company management executive.
But... i'm all for a hearing down the line to better understand the details.
This is dangerously becoming political so lets watch ourselves.
Martha Stewert went to jail for a year for doing much less. One of these 4 sold all their hotel stock 1 week prior to the market crashing while telling the public everything is fine
We all knew about this disease in China, and we all knew our borders were pretty much open for business. I sold 25% of my holdings in early February because i thought our stock market was euphoric and something was going to bring it down... shame on me for holding onto the other 75%, especially financials.
Sounds like they talked to some industry experts and came away frightened... the same thing your fund advisor, asset management company or hedge fund might do after talking to a subject matter expert, or company management executive.
But... i'm all for a hearing down the line to better understand the details.
This is dangerously becoming political so lets watch ourselves.
You also have to consider discretion of trading and the accounts. Did an investment advisor with discretion initiate these trades on the congresspeople's behalf? Again, not improbable that they would have.
With that said, at best the optics are horrible. In my role, even after I jump through the institutionalized hoops to get pre-approval, there's sort of an implicit understanding that you're opening yourself up to exposure/liability if you think you're acting in good faith but your trade just happens to be a little "too successful."
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Can we please, for the love of god, prosecute the sitting congressmen and women who dumped stocks based on insider knowledge while downplaying the impacts publicly?
I know we have bigger fish to fry but this is completely outrageous.
I just saw this, too.
I'm on the right side of the aisle, but this is grounds for removal - at the very least... Link - ( New Window )
Absolutely
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Ok MAB... Seem like you are thinking about this thing differently that a few days ago...
Funny, i was going to comment on your backtracking yesterday but refrained. I have always taken this seriously - it will take 0.5-1.0% (worst case) of those infected, primarily ages 60+ (and as my wife and I have all 4 parents still alive, knock on wood... that matters)
I found your 7% fatality stat the other day absurd, and commented as such. You do seem a little stressed about this and hope you've calmed a bit. It helps no one, and some of your modelling is a little off too. But, I know your heart is in the right place. Its a stressful, emotional time.
What did I backtrack about? Time on respirators? Ok... Makes minimal difference in the final numbers/
time on respirators
....pretty much every key assumption, It was a fear mongering post, and I called your ass out on it as did others.
But, we move on. Hopefully you are in a better place now. Cant be fun to live life that way.
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In comment 14843447 .McL. said:
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Ok MAB... Seem like you are thinking about this thing differently that a few days ago...
Funny, i was going to comment on your backtracking yesterday but refrained. I have always taken this seriously - it will take 0.5-1.0% (worst case) of those infected, primarily ages 60+ (and as my wife and I have all 4 parents still alive, knock on wood... that matters)
I found your 7% fatality stat the other day absurd, and commented as such. You do seem a little stressed about this and hope you've calmed a bit. It helps no one, and some of your modelling is a little off too. But, I know your heart is in the right place. Its a stressful, emotional time.
What did I backtrack about? Time on respirators? Ok... Makes minimal difference in the final numbers/
Regarding 7% fatality, look at Italy...
And if you believe it is orders of magnitude lower, then, look at South Korea. SK represents a best case scenario where everybody gets top notch care. What is more they have seriously slowed this down with their testing and isolation procedures. Just by the effective reduction in number, they MUST have found 95+% of all cases, otherwise it would not be under any kind of control. So the denominator in Korea is not going to go up by much if at all. And right now they have 94 deaths out of 8652 cases. That is already 1.08%, but they still have 6325 (73%) cases that are not resolved yet. Many of them will still die. So in a best case scenario, with the vast majority of the denominator known, they are going to have a death rate north of 1.1%, probably between 1.3 and 1.4%. When medical care is not available, as I was proposing in my analysis, the fatality rate soars as it has in Italy.
You also have to consider discretion of trading and the accounts. Did an investment advisor with discretion initiate these trades on the congresspeople's behalf? Again, not improbable that they would have.
The Senator got a private meeting by Government scientist about Coronavirus threat she . told the public that everything was ok and blamed DEMOCRATS for playing up the threat of virus .. MEANWHILE SHE DUMPED ALL HER STOCK AND BOUGHT STOCK IN A VIDEO CONFERENCING COMPANY
She should be tarred and feathered
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My blood boiled when I first heard about these instances but upon further review I thought the same. Although it was the minority opinion, it wasn't outlandish for someone to cash out at all-time highs while an epidemic raged in China and the likely outcome for the DNC nom appeared market threatening.
You also have to consider discretion of trading and the accounts. Did an investment advisor with discretion initiate these trades on the congresspeople's behalf? Again, not improbable that they would have.
The Senator got a private meeting by Government scientist about Coronavirus threat she . told the public that everything was ok and blamed DEMOCRATS for playing up the threat of virus .. MEANWHILE SHE DUMPED ALL HER STOCK AND BOUGHT STOCK IN A VIDEO CONFERENCING COMPANY
She should be tarred and feathered
You need to keep this very generalized, no party mentions are allowed.
Just a heads up so you don't get banned
Yet you spew 7%... based on Italy which is testing predominantly its oldest, highest risk and most severe symptom patients. No one... no one, not even SK... is testing its entire population. So ... its an insane assumption. If you still dont get that, you are helpless.
time on respirators
....pretty much every key assumption, It was a fear mongering post, and I called your ass out on it as did others.
But, we move on. Hopefully you are in a better place now. Cant be fun to live life that way.
I may have modified a few details in my analysis, but, when I plug in those numbers into my model, the difference is almost zero.
Yet you spew 7%... based on Italy which is testing predominantly its oldest, highest risk and most severe symptom patients. No one... no one, not even SK... is testing its entire population. So ... its an insane assumption. If you still dont get that, you are helpless.
With levels of co-morbidity factors in this country, I don't expect it to be much different. Maybe I'm wrong, but hell, Italy listed allergies as an underlying illness. How many Americans have allergies? Let alone rates in the USA of diabetes, high blood pressure, other cardiovascular diseases, asthma, and on and on... The US has much higher rates of underlying disease factors.
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In comment 14843315 UAGiant said:
Quote:
This is gathered from a discussion my family of pharmacists had earlier on Facetime (based on an emergency meeting one attended).
Plaquenil/hydroxychloroquine has many side effects.
If a patient has multiple disease states, drug interaction are worrisome and potentially going to prevent them from administering. Not everyone can receive it.
Biggest issue - supply chain is tapped. Whoever has stock is basically it for now. Mylan is ramping up production, but the drug production is scaled based on Malaria - not a worldwide pandemic.
It also is treating symptoms of the virus, not curing it.
Its a weapon in the arsenal, but not a silver bullet.
Is this the malaria treatment?
Correct - it is completely unobtainable right now.
That may change, but we are likely sitting on an even smaller stock of this than we are testing kits.
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My blood boiled when I first heard about these instances but upon further review I thought the same. Although it was the minority opinion, it wasn't outlandish for someone to cash out at all-time highs while an epidemic raged in China and the likely outcome for the DNC nom appeared market threatening.
You also have to consider discretion of trading and the accounts. Did an investment advisor with discretion initiate these trades on the congresspeople's behalf? Again, not improbable that they would have.
The Senator got a private meeting by Government scientist about Coronavirus threat she . told the public that everything was ok and blamed DEMOCRATS for playing up the threat of virus .. MEANWHILE SHE DUMPED ALL HER STOCK AND BOUGHT STOCK IN A VIDEO CONFERENCING COMPANY
She should be tarred and feathered
You need to keep this very generalized, no party mentions are allowed.
Just a heads up so you don't get banned
I think we're over that rainbow
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In comment 14843324 bradshaw44 said:
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In comment 14843315 UAGiant said:
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This is gathered from a discussion my family of pharmacists had earlier on Facetime (based on an emergency meeting one attended).
Plaquenil/hydroxychloroquine has many side effects.
If a patient has multiple disease states, drug interaction are worrisome and potentially going to prevent them from administering. Not everyone can receive it.
Biggest issue - supply chain is tapped. Whoever has stock is basically it for now. Mylan is ramping up production, but the drug production is scaled based on Malaria - not a worldwide pandemic.
It also is treating symptoms of the virus, not curing it.
Its a weapon in the arsenal, but not a silver bullet.
Is this the malaria treatment?
Correct - it is completely unobtainable right now.
That may change, but we are likely sitting on an even smaller stock of this than we are testing kits.
It looks like there will be 6 million extra tablets by 3/31 and 10 millions within a month, courtesy of Teva
And not only that, i would assume these tablets are meant for critical patients... life threatening cases... people with mild symptoms shouldnt be given malaria pills.
You are making that assumption with no data to back it up.
There are sever studies coming out that show otherwise. WHO has been doing antibody testing in China and found as of about a week ago that only 15% went undetected. I haven't seen an update, so I don't know if it has changed.
There was a town in Italy where they decided to test the entire village. They found that half the village had it and had gone undetected... However within days half of those that were asymptomatic, became symptomatic. There was also a study published today that a town in Iceland show the same results that 50% were asymptomatic and undetected, lets see what happens there in a few days. No matter what, it isn't orders of magnitude.
You are making that assumption with no data to back it up.
There are sever studies coming out that show otherwise. WHO has been doing antibody testing in China and found as of about a week ago that only 15% went undetected. I haven't seen an update, so I don't know if it has changed.
There was a town in Italy where they decided to test the entire village. They found that half the village had it and had gone undetected... However within days half of those that were asymptomatic, became symptomatic. There was also a study published today that a town in Iceland show the same results that 50% were asymptomatic and undetected, lets see what happens there in a few days. No matter what, it isn't orders of magnitude.
No im suggesting that people under 30, for example, arent even being tested. The median age of an Italy test 2 days ago was 63. MEDIAN! Average fatality age 81.
Is that your idea of average population age?
Cmon... really? Our first year analysts come in better trained. Get so much more granular before you post this shit.
We all knew about this disease in China, and we all knew our borders were pretty much open for business. I sold 25% of my holdings in early February because i thought our stock market was euphoric and something was going to bring it down... shame on me for holding onto the other 75%, especially financials.
Sounds like they talked to some industry experts and came away frightened... the same thing your fund advisor, asset management company or hedge fund might do after talking to a subject matter expert, or company management executive.
But... i'm all for a hearing down the line to better understand the details.
This is dangerously becoming political so lets watch ourselves.
But Barr came out publicly and apparently downplayed the significance. And then sold.
How do we reconcile that?
They tested twice, there were no new infections after the quarantine and only 8 were asymptomatic...
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183
The point is, that not nearly as many people are asymptomatic through the course of the infection as originally thought. By the second testing only 8 out 90! As I keep saying, the denominator is not growing by a large margin.
You can argue that it is faulty to scale those result up to the general population.
However, when you have WHO saying that after doing antibody testing on over 300K people in China, they were only finding 15% that went uncounted (that was a 8 to 10 days ago, I have not seen an update and don't know if the numbers have changed). And the experiment in Iceland that tested a town and only 50% of those infect were undetected at that point as well. You have 3 corroborating data-points. The undetected is somewhere between 10 and 50%.
When I did my analysis, the Italian mortality rate of detected patients is actually trending towards 15 to 16%. I took the higher number and said 50% are undetected, and that is the 7.29% that I used in my analysis.
Mortality is much higher when the hospital system is overwhelmed. That is the key takeaway. Higher mortality, means more damage to the economy.
I think when all is said and done it will be lower. I'm guessing about 25 - 30%. But it won't be orders of magnitude like some people think.
The best data to assess the best case scenario is South Korea. As I said before...
They have been able to slow the spread to a trickle, so they have found the vast majority of infections, otherwise their infection rate would be growing exponentially as well. Plus SK has not been overwhelmed they have been able to treat everybody so its a best case scenario for the lower bound on the mortality rate. You have a pretty solid number in South Korea for the denominator right now at 8652, you currently have 94 dead, for an IFR of 1.08... But you still have 73% of cases unresolved, and there will be more deaths. From this you can conclude that the lower bound on the IFR is going to be above 1.08, not .012 to .02 like you are saying. That is way off. That is the lower bound. The IFR is not a single fixed number, it's a range. In an environment where hospitals are overwhelmed and care is not available to everybody who needs it, you have excess deaths. I.E. a higher IFR. We will know the ceiling on the IFR when we have numbers for slums like in many 3rd world countries. I am projecting the US IFR to be similar to Italy.
Link - ( New Window )
Methylene Chloride Technical Cyclohexene
Listed as a 6.1 Poison
ACS grade with the highest order of purity is the product likely to be used to start the production process of a med for COVID 19. It's been the product used for these instances for many years and one that big pharma leaned on most. This comes from past knowledge from the supply side.
the problem is if hospitals become overwhelemed, if it doesnt the mortality rate will not be high, the virus it itself is scary but the dangerous part is the hospitals becoming overrun..
the reason italy is so bad is because they are an older population and everyoje needed hospitilaztion
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but what insider information did they actually have? Were there US cases that hospitals didnt report?
We all knew about this disease in China, and we all knew our borders were pretty much open for business. I sold 25% of my holdings in early February because i thought our stock market was euphoric and something was going to bring it down... shame on me for holding onto the other 75%, especially financials.
Sounds like they talked to some industry experts and came away frightened... the same thing your fund advisor, asset management company or hedge fund might do after talking to a subject matter expert, or company management executive.
But... i'm all for a hearing down the line to better understand the details.
This is dangerously becoming political so lets watch ourselves.
Martha Stewert went to jail for a year for doing much less. One of these 4 sold all their hotel stock 1 week prior to the market crashing while telling the public everything is fine
These two senators should not only be forced to resign, they should be prosecuted.
however, Martha Stewart did not go to jail for insider trading, she went to jail for obstruction of justice because she lied to Federal investigators (after a trial) - and it was not a year, it was shorter - I know it's not the point, but just wanted to clarify.
So they had 90 people positive in the first test, on the second one they retested the whole town and apparently had 10 positives 8 of which are asymptomatic.
How are you drawing the conclusion that you are drawing?
The blatant arrogance and disregard for their fellow Americans displayed by these two Senators disgusts me.
Until laws and enforcement are changed to put these people in real jail, general population with the murderers and rapists, instead of a club fed slap on the wrist or no penalty at all, it will never stop.
Horrible
This is a must read. Please take a moment for a different perspective.
Interesting point ... if this virus had hit our shores without all the scary Wuhan and Italy imagery, it would have just been compartmentalized as a particularly bad flu season ... like in 2017-18, when 60,000 in US died from a bad strain.
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Argues that we are overrreacting. To be safe, i am practicing social distancing etc because i dont want to be the Typhoid Mary of COVID-19 but tge article makes some good points re mortality rates based on the princess cruise ship. What i think might be missing in this analysis is the increase in mortality rates if hospitals are overwhelmed Link - ( New Window )
This is a must read. Please take a moment for a different perspective.
Interesting point ... if this virus had hit our shores without all the scary Wuhan and Italy imagery, it would have just been compartmentalized as a particularly bad flu season ... like in 2017-18, when 60,000 in US died from a bad strain.
Odds are good that in a couple weeks our medical systems will be at the breaking point and this post will not look very good. I would absolutely love to be wrong and have this take be correct.
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Argues that we are overrreacting. To be safe, i am practicing social distancing etc because i dont want to be the Typhoid Mary of COVID-19 but tge article makes some good points re mortality rates based on the princess cruise ship. What i think might be missing in this analysis is the increase in mortality rates if hospitals are overwhelmed Link - ( New Window )
This is a must read. Please take a moment for a different perspective.
Interesting point ... if this virus had hit our shores without all the scary Wuhan and Italy imagery, it would have just been compartmentalized as a particularly bad flu season ... like in 2017-18, when 60,000 in US died from a bad strain.
Bingo. It's a total overreaction. Read deper beyond the headlines. Cases are rising, but would people even be going to the doctor for these symptoms if not for the hype? Death rate is well below the regular flu.
What is needed here is common sense precautions to be taken, not a mass shut down of the economy. CLOSING barbershops? Really. How about say for a 4 seat shop, no more than 4 in the chairs and 4 waiting, evrybody else outside? This Malthusian bullshit is ridiculous. Some idiot wrote to the Norwalk Hour that we shouldn't have a panic induce baby spike because the planet can't handle it.
Attached column is very telling about Italy. 99% of deaths had pre-exisitng health issues, some more that one.
99% of patients killed by coronavirus in Italy had existing illnesses, new study finds - ( New Window )
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In comment 14843537 Now Mike in MD said:
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Argues that we are overrreacting. To be safe, i am practicing social distancing etc because i dont want to be the Typhoid Mary of COVID-19 but tge article makes some good points re mortality rates based on the princess cruise ship. What i think might be missing in this analysis is the increase in mortality rates if hospitals are overwhelmed Link - ( New Window )
This is a must read. Please take a moment for a different perspective.
Interesting point ... if this virus had hit our shores without all the scary Wuhan and Italy imagery, it would have just been compartmentalized as a particularly bad flu season ... like in 2017-18, when 60,000 in US died from a bad strain.
That's the wildcard that is missing from the article's analysis. That being said as the article mentions the only controlled environment analysis of this is the princess ship and the mortality rates were below 1 percent
Odds are good that in a couple weeks our medical systems will be at the breaking point and this post will not look very good. I would absolutely love to be wrong and have this take be correct.
Yes, issues like high blood pressure, diabetes, respiratory and kidney issues,etc....basically most adults in the US.
Yes, issues like high blood pressure, diabetes, respiratory and kidney issues,etc....basically most adults in the US.
I suggest you read the column. And it's not most adults in the US
The past couple of days, I've seen more reports starting to surface that it isn't just the elderly getting sick, but by and large it still is.
Over 85% of the people under the age of 50 who have had to be hospitalized had underlying issues. Ignore the Italy numbers a bit as they include people with allergies. The over 85% figure represents those with asthma, respiratory issues, treatment for cancer, Cystic Fibrosis, etc.
Unless you have an existing condition, the vast majority of people are going to only experience flu-like symptoms.
What steps should have been taken were to isolate/quarantine the elderly and compromised, and limit anyone coming into contact with them. Would have avoided the massive economic impact that will be the true legacy of this virus.
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'99% of deaths had pre-exisitng health issues'.
Yes, issues like high blood pressure, diabetes, respiratory and kidney issues,etc....basically most adults in the US.
I suggest you read the column. And it's not most adults in the US
Well, I guess fuck those people, amirite?
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In comment 14843537 Now Mike in MD said:
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Argues that we are overrreacting. To be safe, i am practicing social distancing etc because i dont want to be the Typhoid Mary of COVID-19 but tge article makes some good points re mortality rates based on the princess cruise ship. What i think might be missing in this analysis is the increase in mortality rates if hospitals are overwhelmed Link - ( New Window )
This is a must read. Please take a moment for a different perspective.
Interesting point ... if this virus had hit our shores without all the scary Wuhan and Italy imagery, it would have just been compartmentalized as a particularly bad flu season ... like in 2017-18, when 60,000 in US died from a bad strain.
Odds are good that in a couple weeks our medical systems will be at the breaking point and this post will not look very good. I would absolutely love to be wrong and have this take be correct.
but with offsite testing opening uo, that takes a big burdon off of the hospitals
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'99% of deaths had pre-exisitng health issues'.
Yes, issues like high blood pressure, diabetes, respiratory and kidney issues,etc....basically most adults in the US.
I suggest you read the column. And it's not most adults in the US
Yeah thanks. Here: 'According to the study, the most common of these problems in Italy include high blood pressure, heart disease and diabetes. '
Half of US adults have heart disease. 1 in 3 adults in the US have high blood pressure. 40 million have chronic kidney disease.
Literally most adults.
Cardiovascular diseases affect nearly half of American adults, statistics show - ( New Window )
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In comment 14843677 schabadoo said:
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'99% of deaths had pre-exisitng health issues'.
Yes, issues like high blood pressure, diabetes, respiratory and kidney issues,etc....basically most adults in the US.
I suggest you read the column. And it's not most adults in the US
Yeah thanks. Here: 'According to the study, the most common of these problems in Italy include high blood pressure, heart disease and diabetes. '
Half of US adults have heart disease. 1 in 3 adults in the US have high blood pressure. 40 million have chronic kidney disease.
Literally most adults. Cardiovascular diseases affect nearly half of American adults, statistics show - ( New Window )
look at the age!
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In comment 14843679 Victor in CT said:
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In comment 14843677 schabadoo said:
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'99% of deaths had pre-exisitng health issues'.
Yes, issues like high blood pressure, diabetes, respiratory and kidney issues,etc....basically most adults in the US.
I suggest you read the column. And it's not most adults in the US
Yeah thanks. Here: 'According to the study, the most common of these problems in Italy include high blood pressure, heart disease and diabetes. '
Half of US adults have heart disease. 1 in 3 adults in the US have high blood pressure. 40 million have chronic kidney disease.
Literally most adults. Cardiovascular diseases affect nearly half of American adults, statistics show - ( New Window )
look at the age!
Thank you. Italy has surpassed Japan as the oldest population in the world. Again, common snse steps, things we ahve always done. You don't go visit grandma if you are sick.
I get that Fats. It's not about denial or ignoring it, but not be so hysterical that we force people not to work, and ultimately end up unemployed or out of business for good, and shut down our economy. What then? Here in CT, the Governor announces loans to aid small busines in maintaining payroll, but can they pay it back? and who knows if these folks can come abck, and if they do will their business be there. Metro North wants BILLIONs in aid because of the driop in ridership. Where is that coming from?
I don't think it is a denial. And the article I cited is not the Daily Mail, it is auhtoired by a Standford professor who is an expert in this field. As I said, I am taking every precaution that the government is advising. However, there seems to be a very good chance that the mortality rate is much lower than 1 percent, which puts it in line with the flu. Now, I think we need to be extremely cautious because if hospital systems become overwhelmed, the mortality rate can increase.
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the 99% from Italy. Worldwide, over 85% of patients under 50 have underlying conditions. That don't include the above. It is mainly asthma and treatment for other issues like Cancer.
I get that Fats. It's not about denial or ignoring it, but not be so hysterical that we force people not to work, and ultimately end up unemployed or out of business for good, and shut down our economy. What then? Here in CT, the Governor announces loans to aid small busines in maintaining payroll, but can they pay it back? and who knows if these folks can come abck, and if they do will their business be there. Metro North wants BILLIONs in aid because of the driop in ridership. Where is that coming from?
It’s a big hot mess, but they wouldn’t be taking drastic matters if it wasn’t needed. We aren’t even in the thick of things yet. We need a healthcare system for whenever this over. Most medical professions are vastly understaffed as is it right now, when we get out of this it’s going to be extremely understaffed because naturally doctors and nurses will become infected and some will perish.
There are some videos of the national guard moving around cities. Maybe they are getting into place before the announce it
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In comment 14843701 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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the 99% from Italy. Worldwide, over 85% of patients under 50 have underlying conditions. That don't include the above. It is mainly asthma and treatment for other issues like Cancer.
I get that Fats. It's not about denial or ignoring it, but not be so hysterical that we force people not to work, and ultimately end up unemployed or out of business for good, and shut down our economy. What then? Here in CT, the Governor announces loans to aid small busines in maintaining payroll, but can they pay it back? and who knows if these folks can come abck, and if they do will their business be there. Metro North wants BILLIONs in aid because of the driop in ridership. Where is that coming from?
It’s a big hot mess, but they wouldn’t be taking drastic matters if it wasn’t needed. We aren’t even in the thick of things yet. We need a healthcare system for whenever this over. Most medical professions are vastly understaffed as is it right now, when we get out of this it’s going to be extremely understaffed because naturally doctors and nurses will become infected and some will perish.
some of this delayed response was caused by the rule prohibiting private labs from doing disease testing. another common sense measure.
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Says drop dead to all experts in the field, hangs hopes on Daily Mail article.
I don't think it is a denial. And the article I cited is not the Daily Mail, it is auhtoired by a Standford professor who is an expert in this field. As I said, I am taking every precaution that the government is advising. However, there seems to be a very good chance that the mortality rate is much lower than 1 percent, which puts it in line with the flu. Now, I think we need to be extremely cautious because if hospital systems become overwhelmed, the mortality rate can increase.
The less people that go to the hospital, the less the system is overwhelmed, and the easier it becomes to treat people when they contract it. Mortality rate will be lower if we keep the cases manageable. That’s why we are quarantining.
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In comment 14843701 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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the 99% from Italy. Worldwide, over 85% of patients under 50 have underlying conditions. That don't include the above. It is mainly asthma and treatment for other issues like Cancer.
I get that Fats. It's not about denial or ignoring it, but not be so hysterical that we force people not to work, and ultimately end up unemployed or out of business for good, and shut down our economy. What then? Here in CT, the Governor announces loans to aid small busines in maintaining payroll, but can they pay it back? and who knows if these folks can come abck, and if they do will their business be there. Metro North wants BILLIONs in aid because of the driop in ridership. Where is that coming from?
It’s a big hot mess, but they wouldn’t be taking drastic matters if it wasn’t needed. We aren’t even in the thick of things yet. We need a healthcare system for whenever this over. Most medical professions are vastly understaffed as is it right now, when we get out of this it’s going to be extremely understaffed because naturally doctors and nurses will become infected and some will perish.
they are taking drastic measures to be safe, the doctors are even saying we need to overreact to stay ahead...
right now the hospitals are ok and with more testing they should stay thay way
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Says drop dead to all experts in the field, hangs hopes on Daily Mail article.
I don't think it is a denial. And the article I cited is not the Daily Mail, it is auhtoired by a Standford professor who is an expert in this field. As I said, I am taking every precaution that the government is advising. However, there seems to be a very good chance that the mortality rate is much lower than 1 percent, which puts it in line with the flu. Now, I think we need to be extremely cautious because if hospital systems become overwhelmed, the mortality rate can increase.
Thanks Mike. Exactly where I was going. Cautious but not crazy
This was posted before and it is essentially what I have been saying. People act like there are no consequences to overreacting to something like this, its wild. If you kill the economy how do you factor in the amount of deaths and despair that happen in the future.
My biggest concern here is what the "planned overreaction" approach does to the economy.
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Attached column is very telling about Italy. 99% of deaths had pre-exisitng health issues, some more that one.
The past couple of days, I've seen more reports starting to surface that it isn't just the elderly getting sick, but by and large it still is.
Over 85% of the people under the age of 50 who have had to be hospitalized had underlying issues. Ignore the Italy numbers a bit as they include people with allergies. The over 85% figure represents those with asthma, respiratory issues, treatment for cancer, Cystic Fibrosis, etc.
Unless you have an existing condition, the vast majority of people are going to only experience flu-like symptoms.
What steps should have been taken were to isolate/quarantine the elderly and compromised, and limit anyone coming into contact with them. Would have avoided the massive economic impact that will be the true legacy of this virus.
Well England decided to go that way, but they realized there health care system was going to get overwhelmed so they went away from that.
Albany County has recorded the most UNY cases of the virus.
See link.
Albany - Testing suspended - ( New Window )
My biggest concern here is what the "planned overreaction" approach does to the economy.
me too paterson. reminds me of the run on the bank scen in It's a Wonderful Life. "We're panickign and he's not". We need to keep our heads, be sensible and help each other, not shut down the country, hoard toilet paper and run amok like fools.
My biggest concern here is what the "planned overreaction" approach does to the economy.
Unfortunately, there's a lot of "negative data" that happens to be realistic data. And IMO, I don't believe this country has taken the necessary steps to properly deal with Covid-19. I believe many more severe steps need to be taken, such as the cancellation of all domestic flights. And very limited travel for EVERY U.S. citizen, which is nearly impossible given the general ethos of our nation.
"The CDC reportedly predicted 160 million to 214 million infections, 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths in the country. "
Has nothing to do with this website.
The best course of action now is some social distancing with treatment, probably an antiviral like hydroxychloroquine. If it or something else works, we should consider adding it to the water supply until a vaccine is developed.
As far as the expected number of deaths, the 1% I quoted was based on comments from Dr. Fauci. I do agree that most of the people who die will either be elderly or have an underlying medical condition, or both. But that is a lot of people in the U.S., and their deaths will be devastating. There will of course be exceptions, namely young and healthy people who die. Millions who survive may also have permanent health problems.
I've linked the report below.
I've actually been to that hospital, frankly it's comparable to the best US hospitals I've seen.
Italy, northern Italy in particular, has a very modern well resourced health system.
Link - ( New Window )
Like I told him, a year from now I will apologize for over reacting if this fizzles out.
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In comment 14843333 UAGiant said:
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In comment 14843324 bradshaw44 said:
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In comment 14843315 UAGiant said:
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This is gathered from a discussion my family of pharmacists had earlier on Facetime (based on an emergency meeting one attended).
Plaquenil/hydroxychloroquine has many side effects.
If a patient has multiple disease states, drug interaction are worrisome and potentially going to prevent them from administering. Not everyone can receive it.
Biggest issue - supply chain is tapped. Whoever has stock is basically it for now. Mylan is ramping up production, but the drug production is scaled based on Malaria - not a worldwide pandemic.
It also is treating symptoms of the virus, not curing it.
Its a weapon in the arsenal, but not a silver bullet.
Is this the malaria treatment?
Correct - it is completely unobtainable right now.
That may change, but we are likely sitting on an even smaller stock of this than we are testing kits.
It looks like there will be 6 million extra tablets by 3/31 and 10 millions within a month, courtesy of Teva
And not only that, i would assume these tablets are meant for critical patients... life threatening cases... people with mild symptoms shouldnt be given malaria pills.
Again correct - this is not going to be handed out to everyone to "cure" this.
This is a tool to prevent a severe case from resulting in the death of a patient. The Plaquenil treats the respiratory distress caused by it and the ZPack assists with the now compromised immune system from a very-likely bacterial infection after its wiped out from COVID-19 and the subsequent treatment.
The best course of action now is some social distancing with treatment, probably an antiviral like hydroxychloroquine. If it or something else works, we should consider adding it to the water supply until a vaccine is developed.
As far as the expected number of deaths, the 1% I quoted was based on comments from Dr. Fauci. I do agree that most of the people who die will either be elderly or have an underlying medical condition, or both. But that is a lot of people in the U.S., and their deaths will be devastating. There will of course be exceptions, namely young and healthy people who die. Millions who survive may also have permanent health problems.
The hope is that as the temp rises the "r" gets lower. I posted a link a few pages ago to a study that showed once temps hit the 80's (and higher) the transmission rate drops along with the rise in temps. I guess (I'm not an expert so I am just passing comments) that this is a normal thing in flu's.
If you are 80 you have something like a 20 percent chance of dying if contracted. What are your odds of death from a million other causes at that point. People don't live forever. Everyone keeps looking at the age. We are all different and have various levels of health biomarkers. It pretty much comes down to the fact those that are dying are already have weaker immune systems to begin with and death is coming for them regardless. You can have two 80 year olds, one that eats and drinks whatever they want and then you can have another that goes to yoga 3 times a week, stays away from processed foods, and doesn't drink that much. I'd bet dollars to donuts that the latter type is the one that is surviving this.
"The CDC reportedly predicted 160 million to 214 million infections, 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths in the country. "
Has nothing to do with this website.
he also said numerous times he is overreacting to stay ahead, and he has fully admit those numbers are an overexagerstion to get people to tske it seriously..
if he used the actual numbers to this day no one would care, he has to overreact
I heard the same thing yesterday from a director in a fed agency - they were advised to be prepared for a national shutdown within 72 hrs (of yesterday). They were advised that the WH was "seriously considering" martial law.
I personally put the probability of the latter part very low, but I think anybody confidently predicting the direction the exec branch takes this is not considering the unpredictability of current climate. That's as much as I'm willing to say.
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"Asked on by CNN’s Brianna Keiler on “State of the Union” if hundreds of thousands could die from coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said that “it could happen, and it could be worse.”"
"The CDC reportedly predicted 160 million to 214 million infections, 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths in the country. "
Has nothing to do with this website.
he also said numerous times he is overreacting to stay ahead, and he has fully admit those numbers are an overexagerstion to get people to tske it seriously..
if he used the actual numbers to this day no one would care, he has to overreact
Yep, and this is exactly my point. No one ever got fired for over reacting, and thats what we are doing. However some are taking what they say as raw facts to build even more dramatic cases from. I mean how can anyone give a range of 200K to 1.7M? Hell I throw out a range saying 1 person to 10M may die, too.
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In comment 14843799 schabadoo said:
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"Asked on by CNN’s Brianna Keiler on “State of the Union” if hundreds of thousands could die from coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said that “it could happen, and it could be worse.”"
"The CDC reportedly predicted 160 million to 214 million infections, 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths in the country. "
Has nothing to do with this website.
he also said numerous times he is overreacting to stay ahead, and he has fully admit those numbers are an overexagerstion to get people to tske it seriously..
if he used the actual numbers to this day no one would care, he has to overreact
Yep, and this is exactly my point. No one ever got fired for over reacting, and thats what we are doing. However some are taking what they say as raw facts to build even more dramatic cases from. I mean how can anyone give a range of 200K to 1.7M? Hell I throw out a range saying 1 person to 10M may die, too.
I do not believe our country is "over reacting" in terms of how we fight this virus. I believe more needs to be done.
How does that even work? Like what are even the rules to a toilet paper fight? Whoever shits their pants first wins?
Here is Savannah Guthrie’s post about it.
Today Show Employee passes away - ( New Window )
That’s not funny and actually pretty concerning.
this. ^^^
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the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
this. ^^^
Some things aren’t adding up, why has Spain’s death numbers jumped so quickly? And Germany’s are so low?
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In comment 14843859 nygiants16 said:
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the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
this. ^^^
Some things aren’t adding up, why has Spain’s death numbers jumped so quickly? And Germany’s are so low?
Am thinking the same exact thing. There has to be some factor we are not aware of.
We’ve got people loading up on toilet paper and ammo, more than enough ppl aren’t working with a full deck which worries me pretty deeply. The panic scares me.
Maybe it was the good "Ultra soft", vaseline covered stuff ?
Death is a serious lagging indicator. It takes 20 days, sometimes more, from infection to death. Those numbers will grow exponentially in coming months.
I do agree the economy has to be back to quasi-normal by June, July at absolute latest... or the 2008 financial crisis will seem like it was a walk in the park comparatively. At some point destroying an economy isnt worth saving 500k or whatever lives (on a 330 million population base), as harsh as that sounds.
I think this is it. I mean, didn't I see China literally carrying a guy back inside because he wasn't complying with their shutdown?
As for the people saying only the old and sickly will die. First, thats just wrong to ignore these people. Secondly, it simply isn't true. People are massively downplaying the "underlying health conditions" population in this country. 40% of the country is obese and 18% are morbidly obese. Obesity is an underlying health condition- those patients are very hard to treat. Not to mention the masses with diabetes, compromised immune systems from cancer treatment, smokers, and many others.
As for the death rates, I don't think hospitals and the country as a whole has a good handle on deaths related to this virus. Without widespread testing, I would think many deaths caused by this virus are not being officially accounted for.
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differently.
I think this is it. I mean, didn't I see China literally carrying a guy back inside because he wasn't complying with their shutdown?
Italy and Spain have been really lackluster in their approach (until recently). Plus Italy had a large Wuhan population in the north.
I could list several objective factors, but here is just one:
Look at Italy... they have not flattened the Covid-19 curve yet, and they have had stricter rules in place than the U.S.
My question back to you:
What is so unique and special about the U.S. that will allow us to fight this virus better than Italy which is on complete lockdown?
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the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
I could list several objective factors, but here is just one:
Look at Italy... they have not flattened the Covid-19 curve yet, and they have had stricter rules in place than the U.S.
My question back to you:
What is so unique and special about the U.S. that will allow us to fight this virus better than Italy which is on complete lockdown?
I may be wrong, but Italy's initial approach to this was more more laid back than ours. Sure they have shut things down now, but the "horse is already out the barn". They are of course going to take a long time now. Plus they had a very large Wuhan population in the north which really kickstarted things.
I actually think Italy is the model we are looking at trying not to replicate. Be more stringent upfront to avoid the pain they are going through now
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the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
I could list several objective factors, but here is just one:
Look at Italy... they have not flattened the Covid-19 curve yet, and they have had stricter rules in place than the U.S.
My question back to you:
What is so unique and special about the U.S. that will allow us to fight this virus better than Italy which is on complete lockdown?
Italy also were letting wuhan peoplr in even after the outbreak, their average age 70 so their hospitals were overrun..
the us is not italy, stop comparing it to italy, if you think us will brcome italy you have no idea why italy got so bad
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In comment 14843859 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
I could list several objective factors, but here is just one:
Look at Italy... they have not flattened the Covid-19 curve yet, and they have had stricter rules in place than the U.S.
My question back to you:
What is so unique and special about the U.S. that will allow us to fight this virus better than Italy which is on complete lockdown?
I may be wrong, but Italy's initial approach to this was more more laid back than ours. Sure they have shut things down now, but the "horse is already out the barn". They are of course going to take a long time now. Plus they had a very large Wuhan population in the north which really kickstarted things.
I actually think Italy is the model we are looking at trying not to replicate. Be more stringent upfront to avoid the pain they are going through now
I believe you are very wrong about this. There are numerous areas in our country that are acting as though this virus almost doesn't even exist. And, as just one very ugly example, we had a flood of young adults flocking to Florida just this week. Our country is late.
Delivery AND pickup are unavailable in Las Vegas at the moment. I'm not sure what the excuse is for the latter. In fact, I think it should probably be mandatory that people wait in their car until their stuff is ready to be brought out to them.
Context - ( New Window )
My $100 order was reduced to $30 worth of stuff due to lack of availability.
They also asked me if I wanted to replace items I ordered with what they had available and a few of them I declined yet still got the replacement.
As for the people saying only the old and sickly will die. First, thats just wrong to ignore these people. Secondly, it simply isn't true. People are massively downplaying the "underlying health conditions" population in this country. 40% of the country is obese and 18% are morbidly obese. Obesity is an underlying health condition- those patients are very hard to treat. Not to mention the masses with diabetes, compromised immune systems from cancer treatment, smokers, and many others.
As for the death rates, I don't think hospitals and the country as a whole has a good handle on deaths related to this virus. Without widespread testing, I would think many deaths caused by this virus are not being officially accounted for.
Smoking would have to be one of the biggest risk factors when it comes to COVID-19 outcomes
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the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
this. ^^^
Umm..The current death toll is at 218 out of 14,439 cases
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In comment 14843859 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
I could list several objective factors, but here is just one:
Look at Italy... they have not flattened the Covid-19 curve yet, and they have had stricter rules in place than the U.S.
My question back to you:
What is so unique and special about the U.S. that will allow us to fight this virus better than Italy which is on complete lockdown?
Italy also were letting wuhan peoplr in even after the outbreak, their average age 70 so their hospitals were overrun..
the us is not italy, stop comparing it to italy, if you think us will brcome italy you have no idea why italy got so bad
We have let people into this country for several months now. Why do you think a major international (and domestic travel) hub like New York City is lighting up with Covid-19?
But international visitors to the U.S. are not our major problem anymore. The virus has spread to every State in our Union and the only question is: How well will we limit the further spread into each and every city, town, village, rural area, etc.?
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In comment 14843859 nygiants16 said:
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the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
this. ^^^
Umm..The current death toll is at 218 out of 14,439 cases
Deaths are also a lagging indicator in a pandemic
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the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
Death is a serious lagging indicator. It takes 20 days, sometimes more, from infection to death. Those numbers will grow exponentially in coming months.
I do agree the economy has to be back to quasi-normal by June, July at absolute latest... or the 2008 financial crisis will seem like it was a walk in the park comparatively. At some point destroying an economy isnt worth saving 500k or whatever lives (on a 330 million population base), as harsh as that sounds.
I called callous by multiple people on another thread for stating something like this in the beginning. Once this shit actually starts affecting people they may come around to this opinion. We can't go on like this in perpetuity without decades of despair and death. Might be better just to rip the bandaid off.
My guess is that those who have spent their lives studying and preparing for these kinds of events are the ones I should be listening to at this time.
A big question that doesn't really seem to be answered yet for me is time. How much time do we need to engage in social distancing for? The argument that was made about how China (and other Asian nations) "flattened the curve" was great. It appears a lot of policy-makers have bought into this kind of thinking.
On the one hand - we have the thinking that we need to do this for a couple of weeks (see Mr. Pence's plea from just two days ago). On the other, China appears to be having success but they are almost 2 months into lockdown, and may not yet be ready to change their policies altogether.
When I look at the charts of Asian countries who have flattened their curves, I see sharp rises in the past couple of days. Is it possible that the distancing behavior we are discussing needs to continue not for weeks, but possibly months? Should we be looking at no less than 5-6 months before schools are re-opened, maybe longer for industries like travel and tourism?
I truly don't have the answers but it seems to me that not enough is being written about the duration of the "flattened curve" strategy.
Yeah, i think for the most part anyone that smokes regularly is almost guaranteed to have high blood pressure
1/3 of US adults have high blood pressure. It's prevalent.
Cuomo mandates all non essential New York workers stay home - ( New Window )
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In comment 14843859 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
the 120 deaths that have happened? the number of cases were always going to go up when testing ramped up, but the death toll has not and the hospitals will be helped by mlre testing
I could list several objective factors, but here is just one:
Look at Italy... they have not flattened the Covid-19 curve yet, and they have had stricter rules in place than the U.S.
My question back to you:
What is so unique and special about the U.S. that will allow us to fight this virus better than Italy which is on complete lockdown?
Italy also were letting wuhan peoplr in even after the outbreak, their average age 70 so their hospitals were overrun..
the us is not italy, stop comparing it to italy, if you think us will brcome italy you have no idea why italy got so bad
Ugh we are more like Italy then some would want to admit.
Before this all happened there was a ton of talk about how something like social security would fall apart because when Boomers retire, which is happening now, there wouldn’t be enough people to support social security.
Our population has been decreasing at a rate 2 (adults) to 1 (child) due to many things, including the cost to have a child is crazy, student loans, and basically Millenials and GenZers being the first generation to be left on worse financially then the one before.
To combat that we have to take on more immigration. At the same time we are able to keep the elderly alive a lot longer due to the advances in medicine. So the Birth rate is lower, but also the death rate is low as well.
Italy was having this same problem, but their birth rates were worse than ours. They were also forced to take in refugees from war stricken parts of Africa and The Middle East. It’s probably the reason they had so many Wuhan refugees.
All that to say, we are more like Italy then you would think.
Its pretty simple math. From the number of daily new infections, you can infer that SK likely has less than 250 people who are infected but undetected running around spreading the disease. If they had more, the number of new infections per day would be much higher. That means they have likely detected 97% or more of all existing infections in the country. I never said that they have detected ALL. But their denominator is not going up by a significant amount.
Plus, your Japanese number of 20 - 30% who are undetected asymptomatic is yet another data point hat confirms what I'm suggesting. There is absolutely no data point out there that suggests that the undetected asymptomatic is greater than 50%, and many confirming that it is 50% or below.
If you apply the 215 deaths to even the low end 350,000 number, you get a # that’s lower than the seasonal flu. Slash that estimate to 1/2 that, 175,000 actual infections, and it’s still tremendously low.
For anyone reading this and getting mad, what good is an hypothesis without a challenge to it?
he said you can go outside for walks if you want,
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go hand in hand?
Yeah, i think for the most part anyone that smokes regularly is almost guaranteed to have high blood pressure
Not necessarily, it can, but it's not black and white.
I use to smoke years ago, never had a problem with high blood pressure and luckily I still don't.
There are entire counties in Upstate NY with 0 cases. Why would he implement this state wide? Seems unnecessary.
If you apply the 215 deaths to even the low end 350,000 number, you get a # that’s lower than the seasonal flu. Slash that estimate to 1/2 that, 175,000 actual infections, and it’s still tremendously low.
For anyone reading this and getting mad, what good is an hypothesis without a challenge to it?
THANK YOU. Common sense is running out these days.
If you apply the 215 deaths to even the low end 350,000 number, you get a # that’s lower than the seasonal flu. Slash that estimate to 1/2 that, 175,000 actual infections, and it’s still tremendously low.
For anyone reading this and getting mad, what good is an hypothesis without a challenge to it?
We are at 16,500 confirmed cases with 220 actual deaths. Death rate even lower ....
I am dutifully following and supporting the safety protocols, so this is an intellectual rebellion. Do the numbers yourself and see what you find — I think you’ll soon begin to see that the early models failed to adequately account for the vast numbers of infected with mild or no symptoms. Heck, Iceland is finding a 7% actual infection rate in blind testing of its citizens (they are testing even folks with no symptoms). Even if our actual infection rate is just 1/50 of that rate, the death rate is extremely low.
you have no idea how many infections there are .. also I am sure that people have died in US since January of Covid19 and were never diagnosed.
as long as we don't have widespread testing we are flying blind .. it is not smart to do back of envelope math to try to convince everyone that it isn't a big deal
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Even with such limited testing, that’s only a 1.5% death rate. No one knows exactly how many actual infections there are, but J Hopkins previously estimated that there are 25X to 50X more actual than confirmed cases. That’s a range of 350,000 to 700,000 actual infections. Sounds about right?
you have no idea how many infections there are .. also I am sure that people have died in US since January of Covid19 and were never diagnosed.
as long as we don't have widespread testing we are flying blind .. it is not smart to do back of envelope math to try to convince everyone that it isn't a big deal
J Hopkins estimated 25X to 50X times confirmed v actual. If you discount that estimate because it’s an estimate, but accept the epidemiological models that estimate X number of infections/deaths, that’s just pure confirmation bias.
Nobkdy is saying it is not a big deal, some of us just dont think it is crazy as peoplr are makong it out to be
MORTALITY.
Good.
It's Friday :-)
Estimates - ( New Window )
If you apply the 215 deaths to even the low end 350,000 number, you get a # that’s lower than the seasonal flu. Slash that estimate to 1/2 that, 175,000 actual infections, and it’s still tremendously low.
For anyone reading this and getting mad, what good is an hypothesis without a challenge to it?
This calculation is faulty to put it kindly....
There is a ton of uncertainty and unknowns.
In other words:
All the tools to battle illness = mortality rate = Y
Without the tools to battle illness = mortality rate = X
I do agree the economy has to be back to quasi-normal by June, July at absolute latest... or the 2008 financial crisis will seem like it was a walk in the park comparatively. At some point destroying an economy isnt worth saving 500k or whatever lives (on a 330 million population base), as harsh as that sounds.
I called callous by multiple people on another thread for stating something like this in the beginning. Once this shit actually starts affecting people they may come around to this opinion. We can't go on like this in perpetuity without decades of despair and death. Might be better just to rip the bandaid off.
"Saving 500K or whatever lives"
"Rip the band aid off"
How are you guys so certain that's all it will be, especially if you take an approach where we promote the virus' spread? They aren't sure if you can get reinfected or not, so herd immunity isn't a silver bullet at the moment.
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I do agree the economy has to be back to quasi-normal by June, July at absolute latest... or the 2008 financial crisis will seem like it was a walk in the park comparatively. At some point destroying an economy isnt worth saving 500k or whatever lives (on a 330 million population base), as harsh as that sounds.
I called callous by multiple people on another thread for stating something like this in the beginning. Once this shit actually starts affecting people they may come around to this opinion. We can't go on like this in perpetuity without decades of despair and death. Might be better just to rip the bandaid off.
"Saving 500K or whatever lives"
"Rip the band aid off"
How are you guys so certain that's all it will be, especially if you take an approach where we promote the virus' spread? They aren't sure if you can get reinfected or not, so herd immunity isn't a silver bullet at the moment.
Because anyone that has been paying attention, there is no way the mortality rate is higher than 1 percent, and likely much higher than that. We have the most accurate numbers in South Korea and 25 percent of people aren't showing symptoms at all over the course of the virus. So a massive group isn't getting tested. When this is all said and done I wouldn't be suprised if we found it to be approximately .7
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of these "sensationistic" MSM gems, then its up to 4 senators who have know be found to have sold significant stock (not just a few shares). Link - ( New Window )
By the way, a few of these senators are claiming that the stocks are in a managed type fund/trust that they have no control over. So this may be more of a gray area than some believe.
That would be one helluva coincidence, especially the timing of the trade versus when the senators were briefed on the virus threat.
But we certainly need to hear more.
Yeah, of all 4 I think she has the least defend-able position.
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of these "sensationistic" MSM gems, then its up to 4 senators who have know be found to have sold significant stock (not just a few shares). Link - ( New Window )
By the way, a few of these senators are claiming that the stocks are in a managed type fund/trust that they have no control over. So this may be more of a gray area than some believe.
Come on, you don't think it's possible to get word to their managers? The one claiming this sold all losers and then bought 2 winners over 29 transactions prior to the crash.
What do you think the odds of innocently batting 100% are given what transpired 1 week later? While doing these transactions they were underplaying the threat of the virus
While you are on the exponential growth curve I believe that it is very likely that Jim's 25x to 50x of what has been detected vs. what hasn't yet been detected is accurate. That doesn't mean that those people will never be detected. We are only detecting people that are symptomatic. Since symptoms don't appear until 5 to 10 days after infection. In addition we turn away people who are showing light symptoms, and only test those who are showing more significant symptoms (or play for the NBA) which takes even more time to present. So it is likely that the picture we are getting at any point in time is from those show significant symptoms (probably less than 50%) from 10 days ago.
The spread of the disease is such that the number of infected is doubling every 2.5 days in the USA. So by the time we catch infected people, probably on average 10 days after infection, the disease has had a chance to go through 4 rounds of doubling. All those newly infected are asymptomatic. Combine that with the fact that we turn lightly symptomatic people away from testing, so the real number infected 10 days is at least twice what we are counting, and its easy to see how we can have between 25x and 50x infections than we are aware of now.
That doesn't mean we will never detect them. What people have to realize is that from the date of infection, detection lags by 10 days, hospitalization lags by about 17 to 20 days (in other words the number who are hospitalized is a percent of those infected 17 to 20 days ago), ICU care required lags by about 25 days, death lags by about 30 to 35 days.
The outbreak in the US hasn't had time to mature, we have yet to see the vast majority of hospitalizations, ICU events, and deaths. But those numbers are coming.
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In comment 14844076 PatersonPlank said:
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of these "sensationistic" MSM gems, then its up to 4 senators who have know be found to have sold significant stock (not just a few shares). Link - ( New Window )
By the way, a few of these senators are claiming that the stocks are in a managed type fund/trust that they have no control over. So this may be more of a gray area than some believe.
Come on, you don't think it's possible to get word to their managers? The one claiming this sold all losers and then bought 2 winners over 29 transactions prior to the crash.
What do you think the odds of innocently batting 100% are given what transpired 1 week later? While doing these transactions they were underplaying the threat of the virus
Dont get me wrong, I think there was definitely some foul play here. I just think we need to wait to get all the facts rather than to just jump (once again). Who knows, maybe one or two of these folks didn't actually control any of it?
BBDBTS, take a close look at the article. See the part about the 1.1 million deaths? It’s based on the early Imperial College of London study of Wuhan. To get to that worst case, they used a much higher death rate — like 10X or more higher — than we are likely to see in the US. NOT saying it’s not a big deal, not saying we shouldn’t follow the protocols, but we all gotta dig in a bit past the headlines and keep an eye on the numbers — to see whether this economic disaster is justified.
PP- I'm sure its very accurate. None are denying it, just they didn't do it in advance of inside info.
I defended Burr yesterday, not realizing he had sold stocks - and put up a somewhat differrent persona in public than to his doners. So I was wrong about that.
American Hospital Association is estimating at the high end 480,000 deaths.
They estimate 27,000 in the Atlanta area, where I live.
It seems the primary dependency is behavior, not the health system's capabilities, nor the government response.
My supervisor had direct contact with this employee, and since I wasn't allowed to work from home (although fully enabled to do so), I had direct contact with my supervisor.
It's idiotic. Oh and greedy.
While you are on the exponential growth curve I believe that it is very likely that Jim's 25x to 50x of what has been detected vs. what hasn't yet been detected is accurate. That doesn't mean that those people will never be detected. We are only detecting people that are symptomatic. Since symptoms don't appear until 5 to 10 days after infection. In addition we turn away people who are showing light symptoms, and only test those who are showing more significant symptoms (or play for the NBA) which takes even more time to present. So it is likely that the picture we are getting at any point in time is from those show significant symptoms (probably less than 50%) from 10 days ago.
The spread of the disease is such that the number of infected is doubling every 2.5 days in the USA. So by the time we catch infected people, probably on average 10 days after infection, the disease has had a chance to go through 4 rounds of doubling. All those newly infected are asymptomatic. Combine that with the fact that we turn lightly symptomatic people away from testing, so the real number infected 10 days is at least twice what we are counting, and its easy to see how we can have between 25x and 50x infections than we are aware of now.
That doesn't mean we will never detect them. What people have to realize is that from the date of infection, detection lags by 10 days, hospitalization lags by about 17 to 20 days (in other words the number who are hospitalized is a percent of those infected 17 to 20 days ago), ICU care required lags by about 25 days, death lags by about 30 to 35 days.
The outbreak in the US hasn't had time to mature, we have yet to see the vast majority of hospitalizations, ICU events, and deaths. But those numbers are coming.
Good points McL. Keep the good analyses coming — we have a different POV but I appreciate your research and thoughts on the subject.
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As they crowd around the same mic while talking about social distancing...
Seriously. They need to watch Cuomo and take notes on how to give a briefing.
it's a great point. I do realize they are all being monitored very closely, but it would set a great example to those watching.
While you are on the exponential growth curve I believe that it is very likely that Jim's 25x to 50x of what has been detected vs. what hasn't yet been detected is accurate. That doesn't mean that those people will never be detected. We are only detecting people that are symptomatic. Since symptoms don't appear until 5 to 10 days after infection. In addition we turn away people who are showing light symptoms, and only test those who are showing more significant symptoms (or play for the NBA) which takes even more time to present. So it is likely that the picture we are getting at any point in time is from those show significant symptoms (probably less than 50%) from 10 days ago.
The spread of the disease is such that the number of infected is doubling every 2.5 days in the USA. So by the time we catch infected people, probably on average 10 days after infection, the disease has had a chance to go through 4 rounds of doubling. All those newly infected are asymptomatic. Combine that with the fact that we turn lightly symptomatic people away from testing, so the real number infected 10 days is at least twice what we are counting, and its easy to see how we can have between 25x and 50x infections than we are aware of now.
That doesn't mean we will never detect them. What people have to realize is that from the date of infection, detection lags by 10 days, hospitalization lags by about 17 to 20 days (in other words the number who are hospitalized is a percent of those infected 17 to 20 days ago), ICU care required lags by about 25 days, death lags by about 30 to 35 days.
The outbreak in the US hasn't had time to mature, we have yet to see the vast majority of hospitalizations, ICU events, and deaths. But those numbers are coming.
I see the data. However I am clinging/believing the following two points:
- although everyone knows the infected numbers will rise because of the testing, the mortality rate will not (or at least not at the same rate). The net result being that Covid-19 is far less dangerous than the doomsday scenarios.
- the actions that have been going on over the past 2 weeks (self isolating, shutdowns, etc.), will make a dent in the infections rates. So the above numbers/rates will no longer be accurate. Otherwise why do it?
My thoughts anyway.
Furthermore, the studies are also showing that the onset of symptoms is closer to 3 days, so no idea where you are getting 5-10. That is a huge data point for modeling this.
Lastly, we are getting apparently a milder strain in most instances (especially on west coast) than what is hitting Italy. Virus's have a natural tendency to replicate as much as possible and killing their host is a good way to dampen that curve, so by virtue of natural evolution they become less potent and more successful.
Governments are shutting down because we dont know at this point.
You're far too focused on viewing mortality rates in a vacuum.
1. The way South Korea is tackling this is very different and far more targeted than we are, or are even capable of with our laws vs. theirs. So you're already starting off with an apples and oranges comparison.
2. The actual problem with this virus is that it overwhelms the healthcare system and puts hospitals and medical facilities at capacity due to its highly contagious nature. If you can treat all the patients in need of medical care then your mortality rate is going to be much lower than if you have to deny people care based on lack of equipment or beds.
3. When medical care is at capacity, you're not only denying service to others with the virus, but also anyone else in need of intensive care or emergency services. Those resulting other deaths don't show up in your COVID-19 mortality rates.
4. Adopting an attitude where we "go back to normal" just exacerbates the problems in #2 and #3 and has an unknown outcome at best, given that we aren't sure if you can get reinfected. Not to mention it probably pisses off the rest of the world who are adopting social distancing.
Holding out until we get a vaccine is the end game.
Forty to seventy percent of people are estimated to become infected. There are about 320 million people in the United States. Forty percent of that number is 128 million. One percent of that is 1.28 million. Even a mortality rate of 0.7% means that 896,000 people will die. That number will be higher because some people with other medical conditions will die from a lack of treatment. Others will commit suicide because they will be destroyed economically.
The RO for the coronavirus is 2.3 - 2.5, which is too high to stop its spread, especially now. Social distancing is fine, but can only continue for a brief time, and will therefore likely not be enough to "bend the curve" to the point where the healthcare and hospital systems are not overwhelmed.
Treatment is the only way to "bend the curve" and reduce these appalling numbers. Some type of antiviral regimen and using antibodies from recovered patients are our only hope. We must have the answer within 30 days. As I said, if we do find an antiviral regimen, I would investigate whether it can be added to the water supply as a prophylactic measure until a vaccine has been developed.
I commend everyone who is working so hard on this unprecedented problem and threat.
Infectious disease from Mayo clinic expert answers questions - ( New Window )
Forty to seventy percent of people are estimated to become infected. There are about 320 million people in the United States. Forty percent of that number is 128 million. One percent of that is 1.28 million. Even a mortality rate of 0.7% means that 896,000 people will die. That number will be higher because some people with other medical conditions will die from a lack of treatment. Others will commit suicide because they will be destroyed economically.
The RO for the coronavirus is 2.3 - 2.5, which is too high to stop its spread, especially now. Social distancing is fine, but can only continue for a brief time, and will therefore likely not be enough to "bend the curve" to the point where the healthcare and hospital systems are not overwhelmed.
Treatment is the only way to "bend the curve" and reduce these appalling numbers. Some type of antiviral regimen and using antibodies from recovered patients are our only hope. We must have the answer within 30 days. As I said, if we do find an antiviral regimen, I would investigate whether it can be added to the water supply as a prophylactic measure until a vaccine has been developed.
I commend everyone who is working so hard on this unprecedented problem and threat.
No fix will be done for close to the year... you have to isolate the possible fix, test, replicate, test, prefect, etc etc etc and then you need to do testing on actual animals including human. Then you need to mass produce it. If you are waiting for some fix it won't be any time soon.
I just found out that he was good friends with a friend of mine in LA. I didn’t know that at the time, when I read it, but it’s makes it even worse.
34 Year Old California Man Dies - ( New Window )
4. Adopting an attitude where we "go back to normal" just exacerbates the problems in #2 and #3 and has an unknown outcome at best, given that we aren't sure if you can get reinfected. Not to mention it probably pisses off the rest of the world who are adopting social distancing.
Holding out until we get a vaccine is the end game.
Shutting down the economy past May is simply a non-starter. And there is enough evidence out there that you wont get hit twice with this.
evidence goes both ways - theres also plenty of research that quarantines and social distancing only delays the inevitable... that a virus this potent will hit 50% of your population no matter what.
McL just continues to make very bearish, worst case statements by the way - it does not take 35 days from infection to ICU/death as claimed above. Someone said the other day its 18-20 days. As we unfortunately hear about more of these horror stories, its seeming like most fatal cases end within 2 weeks.
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is not the flu. The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%. The coronavirus has a mortality of 1%, spreads much more easily, and does not have a vaccine.
Forty to seventy percent of people are estimated to become infected. There are about 320 million people in the United States. Forty percent of that number is 128 million. One percent of that is 1.28 million. Even a mortality rate of 0.7% means that 896,000 people will die. That number will be higher because some people with other medical conditions will die from a lack of treatment. Others will commit suicide because they will be destroyed economically.
The RO for the coronavirus is 2.3 - 2.5, which is too high to stop its spread, especially now. Social distancing is fine, but can only continue for a brief time, and will therefore likely not be enough to "bend the curve" to the point where the healthcare and hospital systems are not overwhelmed.
Treatment is the only way to "bend the curve" and reduce these appalling numbers. Some type of antiviral regimen and using antibodies from recovered patients are our only hope. We must have the answer within 30 days. As I said, if we do find an antiviral regimen, I would investigate whether it can be added to the water supply as a prophylactic measure until a vaccine has been developed.
I commend everyone who is working so hard on this unprecedented problem and threat.
No fix will be done for close to the year... you have to isolate the possible fix, test, replicate, test, prefect, etc etc etc and then you need to do testing on actual animals including human. Then you need to mass produce it. If you are waiting for some fix it won't be any time soon.
Not necessarily. The antivirals already exist. We would simply be repurposing these drugs for a new use. Some are already being tried in coronavirus patients with excellent results. The sample sizes are small, but what we've seen is encouraging. There are also compassionate use programs.
Thanks.
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Because anyone that has been paying attention, there is no way the mortality rate is higher than 1 percent, and likely much higher than that. We have the most accurate numbers in South Korea and 25 percent of people aren't showing symptoms at all over the course of the virus. So a massive group isn't getting tested. When this is all said and done I wouldn't be suprised if we found it to be approximately .7
You're far too focused on viewing mortality rates in a vacuum.
1. The way South Korea is tackling this is very different and far more targeted than we are, or are even capable of with our laws vs. theirs. So you're already starting off with an apples and oranges comparison.
2. The actual problem with this virus is that it overwhelms the healthcare system and puts hospitals and medical facilities at capacity due to its highly contagious nature. If you can treat all the patients in need of medical care then your mortality rate is going to be much lower than if you have to deny people care based on lack of equipment or beds.
3. When medical care is at capacity, you're not only denying service to others with the virus, but also anyone else in need of intensive care or emergency services. Those resulting other deaths don't show up in your COVID-19 mortality rates.
4. Adopting an attitude where we "go back to normal" just exacerbates the problems in #2 and #3 and has an unknown outcome at best, given that we aren't sure if you can get reinfected. Not to mention it probably pisses off the rest of the world who are adopting social distancing.
Holding out until we get a vaccine is the end game.
+1, and being more safe while driving or in whatever else one does will ultimately help those in need of care outside of what is impending with CV future needs.
I just found out that he was good friends with a friend of mine in LA. I didn’t know that at the time, when I read it, but it’s makes it even worse. 34 Year Old California Man Dies - ( New Window )
Very scary. RIP. God bless. Prayers to his family and friends.
This combination is dangerous and requires a large capcity of beds, equipment and ventilators.
This is a serious situation. It has been from the jump. Anyone with half a brain had to ask themselves why China put 60 million in a full on lockdown (still on I think) and 600 plus million on some type of restriction. Obviously this thing is the real deal.
rocco8112 : 2:41 pm : link : reply
is very contagious, at least as bad as cold and flu. It causes double digit percentage of known cases to go to the hospital, not just the older, and these hospital stays last a long time.
Those under 50 who have the virus and don't have compromised systems are not being hospitalized at a high rate. Not in the double-digits. Why continue to spread false statements?
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The Virus
rocco8112 : 2:41 pm : link : reply
is very contagious, at least as bad as cold and flu. It causes double digit percentage of known cases to go to the hospital, not just the older, and these hospital stays last a long time.
Those under 50 who have the virus and don't have compromised systems are not being hospitalized at a high rate. Not in the double-digits. Why continue to spread false statements?
FMiC - because these people think if they respect and show the virus fear... it will spare them and their families
oh and South Korea's stats at the moment (and older population than ours by the way):
94 deaths
2,233 recoveries
6,266 mild cases
59 serious or critical cases
...but yeah, lets ignore the country doing the most prevalent testing and instead quote stats of countries only testing people with a median age of 63 (with younger testing done on those unlucky folks showing moderate to severe symptoms)
Johns Hopkins University Experts Discuss Pandemic Response - ( New Window )
shhh someone will come on here to tell you 2 million people are going to die
What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time - ( New Window )
The next 2 weeks are huge. We will have a much clearer picture on this whole situation by then. For better or worse. Hoping for the better.
Shutting down the economy past May is simply a non-starter. And there is enough evidence out there that you wont get hit twice with this.
evidence goes both ways - theres also plenty of research that quarantines and social distancing only delays the inevitable... that a virus this potent will hit 50% of your population no matter what.
I would hardly say there's "plenty of research" either way. They simply don't know definitively at this point, but the downside of not erring on the side of caution is severe.
I don't think anyone denies that most people will get this at some point. The key point is that you don't want your entire populace to get infected all at once.
There is no economic "on" switch waiting to be flipped anyway. Even if we allow all types of businesses to open, who is returning to the movie theaters pre-vaccine? Who is going to a massive conference? Amusement parks? Resorts? Let's not even talk about potential litigation when the rest of the world is taking this seriously.
We need to nut up and find a way to make it and brick and mortar businesses will have to innovate.
it's a lot to read through but the tl:dr is there needs to be:
- hardcore distancing now (the hammer)
- hardcore testing & tracing to slow the exponential growth
- buy time to build up capacity and treatment
I’m optimistic about that the virus will max out at the impact of a bad seasonal flu.
But I’m worried that groupthink (clinging to early doomsday models even after the data has changed) will cause terrible economic pain for millions of Americans. At some point, it will take a lot of courage for a public figure to step up to the plate and speak in honest terms about the actual impact of the virus.
Furthermore, the studies are also showing that the onset of symptoms is closer to 3 days, so no idea where you are getting 5-10. That is a huge data point for modeling this.
Lastly, we are getting apparently a milder strain in most instances (especially on west coast) than what is hitting Italy. Virus's have a natural tendency to replicate as much as possible and killing their host is a good way to dampen that curve, so by virtue of natural evolution they become less potent and more successful.
Governments are shutting down because we dont know at this point.
1) I am not saying or alluding that SK has tested everybody or found every case. We know they haven't found every case they get somewhere between 75 - 120 new cases per day, that means they have undetected spreaders out there. But we know what the spread rate is for the disease and we know how many new cases per day that SK is finding. Those 2 data points allow you to backtrack into the number of active spreaders. SK has active spreaders, just not a lot. They have been very effective at locating the vast majority of cases. The proof is that their new cases per day is low. and staying at an approximately constant level. It is simply and mathematically impossible that SK has orders of magnitude more infections than what they have detected. In fact it is impossible that they have even 25% more infections than what they have detected. If there were that many undetected, those people would be spreading and they would have proportionally more infections per day. Their denominator is not going up by a significant number.
2) There are studies that say onset of symptoms CAN be as soon as 3 days. Everything else I have seen is that is is commonly 5 to 7 days. And as I said, since we are only testing people who are presenting more sever symptoms, that only happens at about 10 days.
3) I originally jumped on the 2 strain thing a couple weeks ago. Only to be made to look a little foolish when later reports came out disputing the reports by Chinese doctors of one strain being more virulent than the other. First, these are not technically new strains (I forget the proper word to describe them, but they are immunologically equivalent, i.e. antibodies for them are the same). There have also been studies that came out after the Chinese made their claims about virulence that dispute that claim. The later (more reputable ones) find no difference in virulence. So, I would not hang my hat on that one anymore. As I said, I already took a beating for jumping on that tidbit.
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?
I’m optimistic about that the virus will max out at the impact of a bad seasonal flu.
But I’m worried that groupthink (clinging to early doomsday models even after the data has changed) will cause terrible economic pain for millions of Americans. At some point, it will take a lot of courage for a public figure to step up to the plate and speak in honest terms about the actual impact of the virus.
Spot on Jim
224 Deaths up +17 from 12:00 AM this morning
Various countries are implementing various levels of quarantine.
Time will tell whether we over reacted.
Meanwhile, I hope the 'flatten the curve' efforts don't wreck the place. I continue to think the economic fallout will cause more devastation than the actual virus.
Hopefully, manufacture of masks will eventually catch up to demand, and the average joe will have some modicum of protection when leaving the house.
Again, from what I've read, the symptoms last about a week, so I'm on day 5 and hoping by the end of the weekend I'll be back to normal. And I'm sure you had several people who were panicked who just wanted to get tested and might not have any symptoms, but what struck me was just the sheer number of people trying to get looked at and how many didn't get the chance. I hope there is some good news on the medicinal front to treat it, even if a vaccine is a ways away. People should mentally prepare for the official case numbers to soar through the roof in the NY/NJ area. Anyway, they are opening again tomorrow at 8 AM.
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SC has no idea what the IFR. You keep saying or alluding to that they have tested everyone which is frankly ignoring all literature at this point. They are only testing symptomatic people or people who have been known to be exposed. There are a ton more people there that have not been tested or who were previously exposed. Same as here. To keep saying theirs is an accurate IFR is a lie and only serves to scare people.
Furthermore, the studies are also showing that the onset of symptoms is closer to 3 days, so no idea where you are getting 5-10. That is a huge data point for modeling this.
Lastly, we are getting apparently a milder strain in most instances (especially on west coast) than what is hitting Italy. Virus's have a natural tendency to replicate as much as possible and killing their host is a good way to dampen that curve, so by virtue of natural evolution they become less potent and more successful.
Governments are shutting down because we dont know at this point.
1) I am not saying or alluding that SK has tested everybody or found every case. We know they haven't found every case they get somewhere between 75 - 120 new cases per day, that means they have undetected spreaders out there. But we know what the spread rate is for the disease and we know how many new cases per day that SK is finding. Those 2 data points allow you to backtrack into the number of active spreaders. SK has active spreaders, just not a lot. They have been very effective at locating the vast majority of cases. The proof is that their new cases per day is low. and staying at an approximately constant level. It is simply and mathematically impossible that SK has orders of magnitude more infections than what they have detected. In fact it is impossible that they have even 25% more infections than what they have detected. If there were that many undetected, those people would be spreading and they would have proportionally more infections per day. Their denominator is not going up by a significant number.
2) There are studies that say onset of symptoms CAN be as soon as 3 days. Everything else I have seen is that is is commonly 5 to 7 days. And as I said, since we are only testing people who are presenting more sever symptoms, that only happens at about 10 days.
3) I originally jumped on the 2 strain thing a couple weeks ago. Only to be made to look a little foolish when later reports came out disputing the reports by Chinese doctors of one strain being more virulent than the other. First, these are not technically new strains (I forget the proper word to describe them, but they are immunologically equivalent, i.e. antibodies for them are the same). There have also been studies that came out after the Chinese made their claims about virulence that dispute that claim. The later (more reputable ones) find no difference in virulence. So, I would not hang my hat on that one anymore. As I said, I already took a beating for jumping on that tidbit.
I haven't really been on this thread much, but I am curious why you are on the side of defending the virus? Like you are worried it is getting to much bad press and you are like Hey I know COVID-19 aka Corona aka Corona and two limes in college and he really isn't that bad of a guy.
1. Population. SK is a little bigger than (population) of California (50M in SK to 40M in CA so maybe more than a little bigger). The US is more than 6+ times the size of SK.
2. Geography. Even though SK is bigger than CA in population, all those people are crammed into a space 1/5 the size of CA.
3. Borders. SK has one country that borders it with MUCH more controllable border crossing
4. History. SK just had a MERS outbreak in 2015, while not massive (20% fatality rate on a couple hundred cases) it was scary enough to trigger more sensitivity in the GOVT and the population to take this more seriously from the start.
5. Proximity to source
I'm sure there are more cultural and other factors, but when you're looking at response and there is only one country you can point to that enacted measure like SK did, and everyone who did not, they seem like an outlier. A model sure (if you can pull it off), but an outlier.
Again, from what I've read, the symptoms last about a week, so I'm on day 5 and hoping by the end of the weekend I'll be back to normal. And I'm sure you had several people who were panicked who just wanted to get tested and might not have any symptoms, but what struck me was just the sheer number of people trying to get looked at and how many didn't get the chance. I hope there is some good news on the medicinal front to treat it, even if a vaccine is a ways away. People should mentally prepare for the official case numbers to soar through the roof in the NY/NJ area. Anyway, they are opening again tomorrow at 8 AM.
Best wishes. I hope you feel better. This whole thing is terrifying.
I'm taking it seriously though, just weather the storm....
I'm not advising you what to do, but just sharing how I think a fever is actually quantified.
I don't think that qualifies. Look it up or call our Dr. to be sure.
tele-medicine is picking up my Dr emailed all their patients to suggest it. Maybe see if it's an option for you with your primary - and then (at least in Mass) they can order tests, or refer your elsewhere) Probably the way things should be anyway (tele medicine).
I'm not advising you what to do, but just sharing how I think a fever is actually quantified.
I don't think that qualifies. Look it up or call our Dr. to be sure.
tele-medicine is picking up my Dr emailed all their patients to suggest it. Maybe see if it's an option for you with your primary - and then (at least in Mass) they can order tests, or refer your elsewhere) Probably the way things should be anyway (tele medicine).
PJ, yeah, I know. What I've had has fluctuated between 99 - a little over 100. It's mainly sat in and around the low 99s, but after I rest and take tylenol the fever breaks.
If I didn't know anything, it feels like a lingering flu. Low fever, headache, tired, no appetite, some stomach problems. Honestly, my cough is not any different than I've had in the past and particularly with allergies starting up. But what is crazy is that after I rest and medicine kicks in, I feel fine. No fever and I get hungry and eat. But this is just groundhog day at this point. What is strange, usually fevers get higher at night. For me that's not the case, it goes away and I feel like I'm good to go, until it hits again later in the morning on the next day. Frustrating.
Yesterday the results showed they were both positive. Fortunately both have been symptom free since Sunday night. They will quarantine the 14 days, then be re tested. Now they can focus on the newborn next month without corona hanging over them.
Just sharing how innocuous this can be for most of the population.
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is considered even a low grade fever in an adult.
I'm not advising you what to do, but just sharing how I think a fever is actually quantified.
I don't think that qualifies. Look it up or call our Dr. to be sure.
tele-medicine is picking up my Dr emailed all their patients to suggest it. Maybe see if it's an option for you with your primary - and then (at least in Mass) they can order tests, or refer your elsewhere) Probably the way things should be anyway (tele medicine).
PJ, yeah, I know. What I've had has fluctuated between 99 - a little over 100. It's mainly sat in and around the low 99s, but after I rest and take tylenol the fever breaks.
If I didn't know anything, it feels like a lingering flu. Low fever, headache, tired, no appetite, some stomach problems. Honestly, my cough is not any different than I've had in the past and particularly with allergies starting up. But what is crazy is that after I rest and medicine kicks in, I feel fine. No fever and I get hungry and eat. But this is just groundhog day at this point. What is strange, usually fevers get higher at night. For me that's not the case, it goes away and I feel like I'm good to go, until it hits again later in the morning on the next day. Frustrating.
In Mass they set up drive thru testing areas, but right now you need a referral to use them - from your primary care or the ER.
Is that set up in NJ yet?
it looks like South Korea has mitigated the crisis while US it is just starting .
One thing I did read about South Korea is that have been vigilant with taking temperature of everyone .. if you go into a restaurant they literally take your temperature before they seat you .. this is a great hacker screening method to at least pick up potentially ill people .
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In comment 14844271 pjcas18 said:
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is considered even a low grade fever in an adult.
I'm not advising you what to do, but just sharing how I think a fever is actually quantified.
I don't think that qualifies. Look it up or call our Dr. to be sure.
tele-medicine is picking up my Dr emailed all their patients to suggest it. Maybe see if it's an option for you with your primary - and then (at least in Mass) they can order tests, or refer your elsewhere) Probably the way things should be anyway (tele medicine).
PJ, yeah, I know. What I've had has fluctuated between 99 - a little over 100. It's mainly sat in and around the low 99s, but after I rest and take tylenol the fever breaks.
If I didn't know anything, it feels like a lingering flu. Low fever, headache, tired, no appetite, some stomach problems. Honestly, my cough is not any different than I've had in the past and particularly with allergies starting up. But what is crazy is that after I rest and medicine kicks in, I feel fine. No fever and I get hungry and eat. But this is just groundhog day at this point. What is strange, usually fevers get higher at night. For me that's not the case, it goes away and I feel like I'm good to go, until it hits again later in the morning on the next day. Frustrating.
In Mass they set up drive thru testing areas, but right now you need a referral to use them - from your primary care or the ER.
Is that set up in NJ yet?
yes, today was the first drive thru set up in Bergen Community College for NJ residents within 50 miles. I live like 5 minutes away. I knew it was going to be a shitshow, but once the fever came back I wanted to see if I could get the test. They are prioritizing first responders (as they should). But they ran out of tests. Like I said, I'm on day 5 of this (maybe 5.5 because I felt it coming on Sunday). So I'm just waiting to turn the corner for good.
Thanks, I'll be ok, should be good as new by next week (and I'll still stay away from everyone for one more week to be safe). But I read if you have no fever for 72 straight hours you aren't contagious anymore. I'm waiting for that clock to start.
Yesterday the results showed they were both positive. Fortunately both have been symptom free since Sunday night. They will quarantine the 14 days, then be re tested. Now they can focus on the newborn next month without corona hanging over them.
Excellent news.
Just sharing how innocuous this can be for most of the population.
1. Population. SK is a little bigger than (population) of California (50M in SK to 40M in CA so maybe more than a little bigger). The US is more than 6+ times the size of SK.
2. Geography. Even though SK is bigger than CA in population, all those people are crammed into a space 1/5 the size of CA.
3. Borders. SK has one country that borders it with MUCH more controllable border crossing
4. History. SK just had a MERS outbreak in 2015, while not massive (20% fatality rate on a couple hundred cases) it was scary enough to trigger more sensitivity in the GOVT and the population to take this more seriously from the start.
5. Proximity to source
I'm sure there are more cultural and other factors, but when you're looking at response and there is only one country you can point to that enacted measure like SK did, and everyone who did not, they seem like an outlier. A model sure (if you can pull it off), but an outlier.
Absolutely SK is an outlier. And to further you point, their one border is heavily militarized and nothing is getting across... So they might as well be island.
That said SK represents the perfect test case to establish the lower bound on the IFR. They have the infection under control, they have discovered through testing more than 95% of all cases, their hospitals have not been overwhelmed and they have been able to provide high quality healthcare of all who get sick. Additionally their healthcare system is far superior to the US. They have 12 beds per 1000 people, whereas the US has something like 2.8 beds per 1000. They have higher per capita ventilators, hazmat suits, masks etc. Their IFR is already at 1.08% with 73% of their cases unresolved. The IFR will go higher. Whatever the IFR is in SK, that establishes the floor. Italy is probably establishing something near the ceiling for a first world nation.
As far as a model for what is coming to the US, SK is absolutely not the right comparison.
The one thing that sets the US apart from all other industrialized nations (and not in a good way) is the dismal level of testing capability.
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Feel better dude.
Thanks, I'll be ok, should be good as new by next week (and I'll still stay away from everyone for one more week to be safe). But I read if you have no fever for 72 straight hours you aren't contagious anymore. I'm waiting for that clock to start.
Good luck, Matt.
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My 29 y/o niece and her husband were both sick last weekend. Fever/aches, thought it was just one of those day care bugs your toddler brings home. She is 8 months pregnant so her obgyn wanted them tested. They both took it Monday (west hempstead long Island).
Yesterday the results showed they were both positive. Fortunately both have been symptom free since Sunday night. They will quarantine the 14 days, then be re tested. Now they can focus on the newborn next month without corona hanging over them.
Just sharing how innocuous this can be for most of the population.
Excellent news.
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In comment 14844172 bhill410 said:
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SC has no idea what the IFR. You keep saying or alluding to that they have tested everyone which is frankly ignoring all literature at this point. They are only testing symptomatic people or people who have been known to be exposed. There are a ton more people there that have not been tested or who were previously exposed. Same as here. To keep saying theirs is an accurate IFR is a lie and only serves to scare people.
Furthermore, the studies are also showing that the onset of symptoms is closer to 3 days, so no idea where you are getting 5-10. That is a huge data point for modeling this.
Lastly, we are getting apparently a milder strain in most instances (especially on west coast) than what is hitting Italy. Virus's have a natural tendency to replicate as much as possible and killing their host is a good way to dampen that curve, so by virtue of natural evolution they become less potent and more successful.
Governments are shutting down because we dont know at this point.
1) I am not saying or alluding that SK has tested everybody or found every case. We know they haven't found every case they get somewhere between 75 - 120 new cases per day, that means they have undetected spreaders out there. But we know what the spread rate is for the disease and we know how many new cases per day that SK is finding. Those 2 data points allow you to backtrack into the number of active spreaders. SK has active spreaders, just not a lot. They have been very effective at locating the vast majority of cases. The proof is that their new cases per day is low. and staying at an approximately constant level. It is simply and mathematically impossible that SK has orders of magnitude more infections than what they have detected. In fact it is impossible that they have even 25% more infections than what they have detected. If there were that many undetected, those people would be spreading and they would have proportionally more infections per day. Their denominator is not going up by a significant number.
2) There are studies that say onset of symptoms CAN be as soon as 3 days. Everything else I have seen is that is is commonly 5 to 7 days. And as I said, since we are only testing people who are presenting more sever symptoms, that only happens at about 10 days.
3) I originally jumped on the 2 strain thing a couple weeks ago. Only to be made to look a little foolish when later reports came out disputing the reports by Chinese doctors of one strain being more virulent than the other. First, these are not technically new strains (I forget the proper word to describe them, but they are immunologically equivalent, i.e. antibodies for them are the same). There have also been studies that came out after the Chinese made their claims about virulence that dispute that claim. The later (more reputable ones) find no difference in virulence. So, I would not hang my hat on that one anymore. As I said, I already took a beating for jumping on that tidbit.
I haven't really been on this thread much, but I am curious why you are on the side of defending the virus? Like you are worried it is getting to much bad press and you are like Hey I know COVID-19 aka Corona aka Corona and two limes in college and he really isn't that bad of a guy.
Huh?
I have been saying this virus is much worse than many people here think. How does that put me "on the side" of the virus. That puts me in a place where I want to see more pro-active measures taken to stop this thing. I want people taking it more seriously so we can slow it down and hopefully stop it (I think most are taking it more seriously now, but very few were a week ago)...
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In comment 14844282 Diversify yo bonds said:
Quote:
My 29 y/o niece and her husband were both sick last weekend. Fever/aches, thought it was just one of those day care bugs your toddler brings home. She is 8 months pregnant so her obgyn wanted them tested. They both took it Monday (west hempstead long Island).
Yesterday the results showed they were both positive. Fortunately both have been symptom free since Sunday night. They will quarantine the 14 days, then be re tested. Now they can focus on the newborn next month without corona hanging over them.
Just sharing how innocuous this can be for most of the population.
Excellent news.
Best wishes to everyone, and for a healthy baby.
Yeah that's the artical that Matt posted that I reposted a few days ago in my General Coronavirus thread. It is an excellent article.
* Another co-worker has an adult son who tested positive some number of days ago. Now, he's fever-free, feeling much better, and was cleared to return to the medical front lines.
* A third co-worker very likely has it (along with his wife). They were briefly feverish last weekend. As of two days ago, they were feeling pretty rough - he described breathing as feeling like their chests were filled with wet sand. They were frustrated by their futile attempts to contact the NYC health authorities, as they were instructed to do. As of today, their conditions have not deteriorated further, and they seem well enough to post some updates online.
The number of confirmed cases is going to skyrocket in the coming days, no doubt about it. But it is encouraging to see people getting through it in a few days from home. Because we're going to need an awful lot of that.
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In comment 14844255 .McL. said:
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In comment 14844172 bhill410 said:
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SC has no idea what the IFR. You keep saying or alluding to that they have tested everyone which is frankly ignoring all literature at this point. They are only testing symptomatic people or people who have been known to be exposed. There are a ton more people there that have not been tested or who were previously exposed. Same as here. To keep saying theirs is an accurate IFR is a lie and only serves to scare people.
Furthermore, the studies are also showing that the onset of symptoms is closer to 3 days, so no idea where you are getting 5-10. That is a huge data point for modeling this.
Lastly, we are getting apparently a milder strain in most instances (especially on west coast) than what is hitting Italy. Virus's have a natural tendency to replicate as much as possible and killing their host is a good way to dampen that curve, so by virtue of natural evolution they become less potent and more successful.
Governments are shutting down because we dont know at this point.
1) I am not saying or alluding that SK has tested everybody or found every case. We know they haven't found every case they get somewhere between 75 - 120 new cases per day, that means they have undetected spreaders out there. But we know what the spread rate is for the disease and we know how many new cases per day that SK is finding. Those 2 data points allow you to backtrack into the number of active spreaders. SK has active spreaders, just not a lot. They have been very effective at locating the vast majority of cases. The proof is that their new cases per day is low. and staying at an approximately constant level. It is simply and mathematically impossible that SK has orders of magnitude more infections than what they have detected. In fact it is impossible that they have even 25% more infections than what they have detected. If there were that many undetected, those people would be spreading and they would have proportionally more infections per day. Their denominator is not going up by a significant number.
2) There are studies that say onset of symptoms CAN be as soon as 3 days. Everything else I have seen is that is is commonly 5 to 7 days. And as I said, since we are only testing people who are presenting more sever symptoms, that only happens at about 10 days.
3) I originally jumped on the 2 strain thing a couple weeks ago. Only to be made to look a little foolish when later reports came out disputing the reports by Chinese doctors of one strain being more virulent than the other. First, these are not technically new strains (I forget the proper word to describe them, but they are immunologically equivalent, i.e. antibodies for them are the same). There have also been studies that came out after the Chinese made their claims about virulence that dispute that claim. The later (more reputable ones) find no difference in virulence. So, I would not hang my hat on that one anymore. As I said, I already took a beating for jumping on that tidbit.
I haven't really been on this thread much, but I am curious why you are on the side of defending the virus? Like you are worried it is getting to much bad press and you are like Hey I know COVID-19 aka Corona aka Corona and two limes in college and he really isn't that bad of a guy.
Huh?
I have been saying this virus is much worse than many people here think. How does that put me "on the side" of the virus. That puts me in a place where I want to see more pro-active measures taken to stop this thing. I want people taking it more seriously so we can slow it down and hopefully stop it (I think most are taking it more seriously now, but very few were a week ago)...
My mistake then... I either read you wrong or read someone else. I thought you were saying it isn't that deadly and don't stress, but I admit that I am just skimming so I apologize.
A good friend tested positive, she was recently on the news and only because of a social media post and involvement from our local congressperson was she even allowed to be tested at a ProHealth urgent care.
Worried, I thought maybe I should get tested. My office has been asking me have I been tested and actually was asked again today by HR. So I called the Nassau county hotline and was surprised when they picked up after one ring. NC told me to try Northwell or ProHealth, that state testing would take days and that I probably wouldn’t be approved for a test anyway.
So I called Northwell and they scheduled me for a test this afternoon. I went, and waited in the parking lot for about an hour, filled out some paper work on my phone. Then the doctor called. Long story short, she was not going to test me at all until I told her that I had been in contact with a known positive.
I was allowed into the urgent care facility, which was locked and dark and empty, they gave me a mask and told me to wait in an exam room. Eventually the doctor came in and the first thing she said was excuse me for how ridiculous I look. The doctor had a plastic bag on her head, a surgical mask and splatter shield eye guard. She was wearing a onesy (sic?) she said she bought from Amazon with her own money. I asked, don’t they provide you any protective gear? No she said... nothing but the cotton gown and scrubs and the mask and gloves. Have you seen what they’re wearing in other countries, the doctor asked me. It’s like they’re going to the moon. Here, we have nothing.
She tested me for the flu, negative and told me that the covid19 test would take 5 to 7 days to come back. They’ll absolutely call you if you’re positive she said. In the meantime, continue to self quarantine and get plenty of rest.
I asked how things were at the hospital. She said it was already crazy at Northshore and just expected to get worse. We’re completely unprepared for this she said to me.
We wished each other good luck. I left and she stayed to clean the room.
* Another co-worker has an adult son who tested positive some number of days ago. Now, he's fever-free, feeling much better, and was cleared to return to the medical front lines.
* A third co-worker very likely has it (along with his wife). They were briefly feverish last weekend. As of two days ago, they were feeling pretty rough - he described breathing as feeling like their chests were filled with wet sand. They were frustrated by their futile attempts to contact the NYC health authorities, as they were instructed to do. As of today, their conditions have not deteriorated further, and they seem well enough to post some updates online.
The number of confirmed cases is going to skyrocket in the coming days, no doubt about it. But it is encouraging to see people getting through it in a few days from home. Because we're going to need an awful lot of that.
That's great. Thanks for sharing.
A good friend tested positive, she was recently on the news and only because of a social media post and involvement from our local congressperson was she even allowed to be tested at a ProHealth urgent care.
Worried, I thought maybe I should get tested. My office has been asking me have I been tested and actually was asked again today by HR. So I called the Nassau county hotline and was surprised when they picked up after one ring. NC told me to try Northwell or ProHealth, that state testing would take days and that I probably wouldn’t be approved for a test anyway.
So I called Northwell and they scheduled me for a test this afternoon. I went, and waited in the parking lot for about an hour, filled out some paper work on my phone. Then the doctor called. Long story short, she was not going to test me at all until I told her that I had been in contact with a known positive.
I was allowed into the urgent care facility, which was locked and dark and empty, they gave me a mask and told me to wait in an exam room. Eventually the doctor came in and the first thing she said was excuse me for how ridiculous I look. The doctor had a plastic bag on her head, a surgical mask and splatter shield eye guard. She was wearing a onesy (sic?) she said she bought from Amazon with her own money. I asked, don’t they provide you any protective gear? No she said... nothing but the cotton gown and scrubs and the mask and gloves. Have you seen what they’re wearing in other countries, the doctor asked me. It’s like they’re going to the moon. Here, we have nothing.
She tested me for the flu, negative and told me that the covid19 test would take 5 to 7 days to come back. They’ll absolutely call you if you’re positive she said. In the meantime, continue to self quarantine and get plenty of rest.
I asked how things were at the hospital. She said it was already crazy at Northshore and just expected to get worse. We’re completely unprepared for this she said to me.
We wished each other good luck. I left and she stayed to clean the room.
Damn.. that is frightening. I hope you rest up and get better. My neighbor across the street is a nurse at a Northwell hospital and told me how unprepared they were when i spoke to her last Saturday. Seems like they haven't improved. And they're supposed to be on the front lines of this thing.. yikes. Stay inside people, seriously.
+2.
Please?
224 Deaths up +17 from 12:00 AM this morning
Our resident statistician.
Keep up the good work ok’ buddy ..
@WalmartInc
· 20h
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Military tents at FedEx Field will be used as COVID-19 testing site - ( New Window )
Quote:
16,491 cases which are 2,702 new ones
224 Deaths up +17 from 12:00 AM this morning
Our resident statistician.
Keep up the good work ok’ buddy ..
Do you have a problem with keeping members informed? Does this bother you?
A good friend tested positive, she was recently on the news and only because of a social media post and involvement from our local congressperson was she even allowed to be tested at a ProHealth urgent care.
Worried, I thought maybe I should get tested. My office has been asking me have I been tested and actually was asked again today by HR. So I called the Nassau county hotline and was surprised when they picked up after one ring. NC told me to try Northwell or ProHealth, that state testing would take days and that I probably wouldn’t be approved for a test anyway.
So I called Northwell and they scheduled me for a test this afternoon. I went, and waited in the parking lot for about an hour, filled out some paper work on my phone. Then the doctor called. Long story short, she was not going to test me at all until I told her that I had been in contact with a known positive.
I was allowed into the urgent care facility, which was locked and dark and empty, they gave me a mask and told me to wait in an exam room. Eventually the doctor came in and the first thing she said was excuse me for how ridiculous I look. The doctor had a plastic bag on her head, a surgical mask and splatter shield eye guard. She was wearing a onesy (sic?) she said she bought from Amazon with her own money. I asked, don’t they provide you any protective gear? No she said... nothing but the cotton gown and scrubs and the mask and gloves. Have you seen what they’re wearing in other countries, the doctor asked me. It’s like they’re going to the moon. Here, we have nothing.
She tested me for the flu, negative and told me that the covid19 test would take 5 to 7 days to come back. They’ll absolutely call you if you’re positive she said. In the meantime, continue to self quarantine and get plenty of rest.
I asked how things were at the hospital. She said it was already crazy at Northshore and just expected to get worse. We’re completely unprepared for this she said to me.
We wished each other good luck. I left and she stayed to clean the room.
This is the truth as far as our healthcare systems preparedness for this. My family is still self quarantined after my wife was exposed to confirmed positive on 3/12 at the hospital she works at. Fortunately as of now we all feel OK but the stories she is getting from co-workers make me want to tell her not to go back to work when she can. The healthcare workers have completely insufficient PPE.
She just received a message from her hospital director that all healthcare workers who have been exposed from today on but are not showing symptoms will not be allowed to quarantine and must continue to work.
I'm posting this because I am seeing a lot of B.S. in the media about curfews, shutdowns and conditions approaching martial law which are simply not true:
Please read this Order carefully. Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a misdemeanor punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both. (California Health and Safety Code § 120295, et seq.)
UNDER THE AUTHORITY OF CALIFORNIA HEALTH AND SAFETY CODE SECTIONS 101040, AND 120175, THE HEALTH OFFICER OF THE COUNTY OF CONTRA COSTA (“HEALTH OFFICER”) ORDERS:
1. The intent of this Order is to ensure that the maximum number of people self-isolate in their places of residence to the maximum extent feasible, while enabling essential services to continue, to slow the spread of COVID-19 to the maximum extent possible. When people need to leave their places of residence, whether to obtain or perform vital services, or to otherwise facilitate authorized activities necessary for continuity of social and commercial life, they should at all times reasonably possible comply with Social Distancing Requirements as defined in Section 10 below. All provisions of this Order should be interpreted to effectuate this intent. Failure to comply with any of the provisions of this Order constitutes an imminent threat to public health.
2. All individuals currently living within Contra Costa County (the “County”) are ordered to shelter at their place of residence. To the extent individuals are using shared or outdoor spaces, they must at all times as reasonably possible maintain social distancing of at least six feet from any other person when they are outside their residence. All persons may leave their residences only for Essential Activities, Essential Governmental Functions, or to operate Essential Businesses, all as defined in Section 10. Individuals experiencing homelessness are exempt from this Section, but are strongly urged to obtain shelter, and governmental and other entities are strongly urged to make such shelter available as soon as possible and to the maximum extent practicable (and to utilize Social Distancing Requirements in their operation).
3. All businesses with a facility in the County, except Essential Businesses as defined below in Section 10, are required to cease all activities at facilities located within the County except Minimum Basic Operations, as defined in Section 10. For clarity, businesses may also continue operations consisting exclusively of employees or contractors performing activities at their own residences (i.e., working from home). All Essential Businesses are strongly encouraged to remain open. To the greatest extent feasible, Essential Businesses shall comply with Social Distancing Requirements as defined in Section 10 below, including, but not limited to, when any customers are standing in line.
4. All public and private gatherings of any number of people occurring outside a household or living unit are prohibited, except for the limited purposes as expressly permitted in Section 10. Nothing in this Order prohibits the gathering of members of a household or living unit.
5. All travel, including, but not limited to, travel on foot, bicycle, scooter, motorcycle, automobile, or public transit, except Essential Travel and Essential Activities as defined below in Section 10, is prohibited. People must use public transit only for purposes of performing Essential Activities or to travel to and from work to operate Essential Businesses or maintain Essential Governmental Functions. People riding on public transit must comply with Social Distancing Requirements as defined in Section 10 below, to the greatest extent feasible. This Order allows travel into or out of the County to perform Essential Activities, operate Essential Businesses, or maintain Essential Governmental Functions.
6. This Order is issued based on evidence of increasing occurrence of COVID-19 within the County and throughout the Bay Area, scientific evidence and best practices regarding the most effective approaches to slow the transmission of communicable diseases generally and COVID-19 specifically, and evidence that the age, condition, and health of a significant portion of the population of the County places it at risk for serious health complications, including death, from COVID-19. Due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in the general public, which is now a pandemic according to the World Health Organization, there is a public health emergency throughout the County. Making the problem worse, some individuals who contract the COVID-19 virus have no symptoms or have mild symptoms, which means they may not be aware they carry the virus. Because even people without symptoms can transmit the disease, and because evidence shows the disease is easily spread, gatherings can result in preventable transmission of the virus. The scientific evidence shows that at this stage of the emergency, it is essential to slow virus transmission as much as possible to protect the most vulnerable and to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed. One proven way to slow the transmission is to limit interactions among people to the greatest extent practicable. By reducing the spread of the COVID-19 virus, this Order helps preserve critical and limited healthcare capacity in the County.
7. This Order also is issued in light of the existence of 29 cases of COVID-19 in the County, as well as at least 258 confirmed cases and at least three deaths in the seven Bay Area jurisdictions jointly issuing this Order, as of 5 p.m. on March 15, 2020, including a significant and increasing number of suspected cases of community transmission and likely further significant increases in transmission. Widespread testing for COVID-19 is not yet available but is expected to increase in the coming days. This Order is necessary to slow the rate of spread and the Health Officer will re-evaluate it as further data becomes available.
8. This Order is issued in accordance with, and incorporates by reference, the March 4, 2020 Proclamation of a State of Emergency issued by Governor Gavin Newsom, This Order is issued in accordance with, and incorporates by reference, the March 4, 2020 Proclamation of a State of Emergency issued by Governor Gavin Newsom and the March 10, 2020 Resolution of the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors declaring the existence of a Local Emergency in Contra Costa County.
9. This Order comes after the release of substantial guidance from the County Health Officer, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the California Department of Public Health, and other public health officials throughout the United States and around the world, including a variety of prior orders to combat the spread and harms of COVID19. The Health Officer will continue to assess the quickly evolving situation and may modify or extend this Order, or issue additional Orders, related to COVID-19.
10. Definitions and Exemptions.
a. For purposes of this Order, individuals may leave their residence only to perform any of the following “Essential Activities.” But people at high risk of severe illness from COVID-19 and people who are sick are urged to stay in their residence to the extent possible except as necessary to seek medical care.
i. To engage in activities or perform tasks essential to their health and safety, or to the health and safety of their family or household members (including, but not limited to, pets), such as, by way of example only and without limitation, obtaining medical supplies or medication, visiting a health care professional, or obtaining supplies they need to work from home.ii. To obtain necessary services or supplies for themselves and their family or household members, or to deliver those services or supplies to others, such as, by way of example only and without limitation, canned food, dry goods, fresh fruits and vegetables, pet supply, fresh meats, fish, and poultry, and any other household consumer products, and products necessary to maintain the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences.
iii. To engage in outdoor activity, provided the individuals comply with Social Distancing Requirements as defined in this Section, such as, by way of example and without limitation, walking, hiking, or running.
iv. To perform work providing essential products and services at an Essential Business or to otherwise carry out activities specifically permitted in this Order, including Minimum Basic Operations.
v. To care for a family member or pet in another household.
b. For purposes of this Order, individuals may leave their residence to work for or obtain services at any “Healthcare Operations” including hospitals, clinics, dentists, pharmacies, pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, other healthcare facilities, healthcare suppliers, home healthcare services providers, mental health providers, or any related and/or ancillary healthcare services. “Healthcare Operations” also includes veterinary care and all healthcare services provided to animals. This exemption shall be construed broadly to avoid any impacts to the delivery of healthcare, broadly defined. “Healthcare Operations” does not include fitness and exercise gyms and similar facilities.
c. For purposes of this Order, individuals may leave their residence to provide any services or perform any work necessary to the operations and maintenance of “Essential Infrastructure,” including, but not limited to, public works construction, construction of housing (in particular affordable housing or housing for individuals experiencing homelessness), airport operations, water, sewer, gas, electrical, oil refining, roads and highways, public transportation, solid waste collection and removal, internet, and telecommunications systems (including the provision of essential global, national, and local infrastructure for computing services, business infrastructure, communications, and web-based services), provided that they carry out those services or that work in compliance with Social Distancing Requirements as defined this Section, to the extent possible.
d. For purposes of this Order, all first responders, emergency management personnel, emergency dispatchers, court personnel, and law enforcement personnel, and others who need to perform essential services are categorically exempt from this Order. Further, nothing in this Order shall prohibit any individual from performing or accessing “Essential Governmental Functions,” as determined by the governmental entity performing those functions. Each governmental entity shall identify and designate appropriate employees or contractors to continue providing and carrying out any Essential Governmental Functions. All Essential Governmental Functions shall be performed in compliance with Social Distancing Requirements as defined in this Section, to the extent possible.
e. For the purposes of this Order, covered businesses include any for-profit, nonprofit, or educational entities, regardless of the nature of the service, the function they perform, or its corporate or entity structure.
f. For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Businesses” means: i. Healthcare Operations and Essential Infrastructure; ii. Grocery stores, certified farmers’ markets, farm and produce stands, supermarkets, food banks, convenience stores, and other establishments engaged in the retail sale of canned food, dry goods, fresh fruits and vegetables, pet supply, fresh meats, fish, and poultry, and any other household consumer products (such as cleaning and personal care products). This includes stores that sell groceries and also sell other nongrocery products, and products necessary to maintaining the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences; iii. Food cultivation, including farming, livestock, and fishing; iv. Businesses that provide food, shelter, and social services, and other necessities of life for economically disadvantaged or otherwise needy individuals; v. Newspapers, television, radio, and other media services; vi. Gas stations and auto-supply, auto-repair, and related facilities; vii. Banks and related financial institutions; viii. Hardware stores; ix. Plumbers, electricians, exterminators, and other service providers who provide services that are necessary to maintaining the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences, Essential Activities, and Essential Businesses; x. Businesses providing mailing and shipping services, including post office boxes; xi. Educational institutions—including public and private K-12 schools, colleges, and universities—for purposes of facilitating distance learning or performing essential functions, provided that social distancing of six-feet per person is maintained to the greatest extent possible; xii. Laundromats, drycleaners, and laundry service providers; xiii. Restaurants and other facilities that prepare and serve food, but only for delivery or carry out. Schools and other entities that typically provide free food services to students or members of the public may continue to do so under this Order on the condition that the food is provided to students or members of the public on a pick-up and take-away basis only. Schools and other entities that provide food services under this exemption shall not permit the food to be eaten at the site where it is provided, or at any other gathering site; xiv. Businesses that supply products needed for people to work from home; xv. Businesses that supply other Essential Businesses with the support or supplies necessary to operate; xvi. Businesses that ship or deliver groceries, food, goods or services directly to residences; xvii. Airlines, taxis, and other private transportation providers providing transportation services necessary for Essential Activities and other purposes expressly authorized in this Order; xviii. Home-based care for seniors, adults, or children; xix. Residential facilities and shelters for seniors, adults, and children; xx. Professional services, such as legal or accounting services, when necessary to assist in compliance with legally mandated activities; xxi. Childcare facilities providing services that enable employees exempted in this Order to work as permitted. To the extent possible, childcare facilities must operate under the following mandatory conditions: 1. Childcare must be carried out in stable groups of 12 or fewer (“stable” means that the same 12 or fewer children are in the same group each day). 2. Children shall not change from one group to another. 3. If more than one group of children is cared for at one facility, each group shall be in a separate room. Groups shall not mix with each other. 4. Childcare providers shall remain solely with one group of children. g. For the purposes of this Order, “Minimum Basic Operations” include the following, provided that employees comply with Social Distancing Requirements as defined this Section, to the extent possible, while carrying out such operations: i. The minimum necessary activities to maintain the value of the business’s inventory, ensure security, process payroll and employee benefits, or for related functions. ii. The minimum necessary activities to facilitate employees of the business being able to continue to work remotely from their residences.
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h. For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Travel” includes travel for any of the following purposes. Individuals engaged in any Essential Travel must comply with all Social Distancing Requirements as defined in this Section below. i. Any travel related to the provision of or access to Essential Activities, Essential Governmental Functions, Essential Businesses, or Minimum Basic Operations. ii. Travel to care for elderly, minors, dependents, persons with disabilities, or other vulnerable persons. iii. Travel to or from educational institutions for purposes of receiving materials for distance learning, for receiving meals, and any other related services. iv. Travel to or return from a place of residence outside the jurisdiction. v. Travel required by law enforcement or court order. vi. Travel required for non-residents to return to their place of residence outside the County. Individuals are strongly encouraged to verify that their transportation out of the County remains available and functional prior to commencing such travel. i. For purposes of this Order, residences include hotels, motels, shared rental units and similar facilities. j. For purposes of this Order, “Social Distancing Requirements” includes maintaining at least six-foot social distancing from other individuals, washing hands with soap and water for at least twenty seconds as frequently as possible or using hand sanitizer, covering coughs or sneezes (into the sleeve or elbow, not hands), regularly cleaning high-touch surfaces, and not shaking hands. 11. Pursuant to Government Code sections 26602 and 41601 and Health and Safety Code section 101029, the Health Officer requests that the Sheriff and all chiefs of police in the County ensure compliance with and enforce this Order. The violation of any provision of this Order constitutes an imminent threat to public health. 12. This Order shall become effective at 12:01 a.m. on March 17, 2020 and will continue to be in effect until 11:59 p.m. on April 7, 2020, or until it is extended, rescinded, superseded, or amended in writing by the Health Officer. 13. Copies of this Order shall promptly be: (1) made available at Office of the Director of Health of Contra Costa County, 1220 Morello Ave, Martinez CA 94553; (2) posted on the County Public Health Department website www.cchealth.org; and (3) provided to any member of the public requesting a copy of this Order. 14. If any provision of this Order to the application thereof to any person or circumstance is held to be invalid, the reminder of the Order, including the application of such part or provision to other persons or circumstances, shall not be affected and shall continue in full force and effect. To this end, the provisions of this Order are severable. 15. Questions or comments regarding this order may be directed to Contra Costa Health Services at 1-844-729-8410.
Essential business can remain open. In addition of Grocery stores and medical facilities this includes such things a laundries , home service providers ( plumbers, electricians and the like ) Child care facilities and "Business that supply products for people to work at home". This includes Best Buy and Staples.
You can leave your house to care for relatives.
You can leave your house to go to a Grocery store, or pick up food at a restaurant.
You can leave your house to go to a hotel/motel.
You can leave your house to go for walk or walk your dog.
You can obtain vet care for your pets.
So no NFL draft party
Quote:
I’ve been sick for more than a week now. Similar to what Matt described, mild symptoms, but all the coronavirus markers, nausea, headaches, chills, fever, cough etc.
A good friend tested positive, she was recently on the news and only because of a social media post and involvement from our local congressperson was she even allowed to be tested at a ProHealth urgent care.
Worried, I thought maybe I should get tested. My office has been asking me have I been tested and actually was asked again today by HR. So I called the Nassau county hotline and was surprised when they picked up after one ring. NC told me to try Northwell or ProHealth, that state testing would take days and that I probably wouldn’t be approved for a test anyway.
So I called Northwell and they scheduled me for a test this afternoon. I went, and waited in the parking lot for about an hour, filled out some paper work on my phone. Then the doctor called. Long story short, she was not going to test me at all until I told her that I had been in contact with a known positive.
I was allowed into the urgent care facility, which was locked and dark and empty, they gave me a mask and told me to wait in an exam room. Eventually the doctor came in and the first thing she said was excuse me for how ridiculous I look. The doctor had a plastic bag on her head, a surgical mask and splatter shield eye guard. She was wearing a onesy (sic?) she said she bought from Amazon with her own money. I asked, don’t they provide you any protective gear? No she said... nothing but the cotton gown and scrubs and the mask and gloves. Have you seen what they’re wearing in other countries, the doctor asked me. It’s like they’re going to the moon. Here, we have nothing.
She tested me for the flu, negative and told me that the covid19 test would take 5 to 7 days to come back. They’ll absolutely call you if you’re positive she said. In the meantime, continue to self quarantine and get plenty of rest.
I asked how things were at the hospital. She said it was already crazy at Northshore and just expected to get worse. We’re completely unprepared for this she said to me.
We wished each other good luck. I left and she stayed to clean the room.
Damn.. that is frightening. I hope you rest up and get better. My neighbor across the street is a nurse at a Northwell hospital and told me how unprepared they were when i spoke to her last Saturday. Seems like they haven't improved. And they're supposed to be on the front lines of this thing.. yikes. Stay inside people, seriously.
Wifes hospital is very low on mask. We are not well prepared.
I wish I could delete your post myself because it's unreadable.
Essential business can remain open. In addition of Grocery stores and medical facilities this includes such things a laundries , home service providers ( plumbers, electricians and the like ) Child care facilities and "Business that supply products for people to work at home". This includes Best Buy and Staples.
You can leave your house to care for relatives.
You can leave your house to go to a Grocery store, or pick up food at a restaurant.
You can leave your house to go to a hotel/motel.
You can leave your house to go for walk or walk your dog.
You can obtain vet care for your pets.
All I've been doing is walking. Last Sunday I chalked up 16.5 miles.
I wish I could delete your post myself because it's unreadable.
Quote:
Next time don't paste the wall a text and muddy up the first page. some of us like to come here and look for football stuff, to get away from everything that's going on in the world. Thread police are here for all of us, and Eric owns the site. He could shut it down tomorrow if he wants to.
I wish I could delete your post myself because it's unreadable.
If you like to look at football stuff, stay off the NFT's. I'm posting a government document that I saved on my computer. Its long. This I'm sorry if I offended your sensibilities .
My point is not to complain about the so-called threat police.
Quote:
In comment 14844260 montanagiant said:
Quote:
16,491 cases which are 2,702 new ones
224 Deaths up +17 from 12:00 AM this morning
Our resident statistician.
Keep up the good work ok’ buddy ..
Do you have a problem with keeping members informed? Does this bother you?
~ crickets ~
Essential business can remain open. In addition of Grocery stores and medical facilities this includes such things a laundries , home service providers ( plumbers, electricians and the like ) Child care facilities and "Business that supply products for people to work at home". This includes Best Buy and Staples.
You can leave your house to care for relatives.
You can leave your house to go to a Grocery store, or pick up food at a restaurant.
You can leave your house to go to a hotel/motel.
You can leave your house to go for walk or walk your dog.
You can obtain vet care for your pets.
How about liquor stores?
I have heard estimates of peak infections mid to late April, but these estimates are based on relatively simple models and have wide confidence intervals.
Even if that were accurate, that is the peak, and I have not heard from public health experts as to when it is safe to relax the measures used to control things.
I don't think you are too far off from the best case scenario...but that is just an educated guess.
In MA, dispensaries too. What a weird scene at the dispensary near me yesterday. People had to leave their phone number at the front door and then had to wait in their cars. You got a text message when you could enter the store. In the store there were a max of 3 to 4 customers with black X's on the floor where you should stand while waiting. The x's were about 6 feet apart each.
People were very civil and obedient. So I heard. Some said it was a 2+ hour wait.
of course they were civil and obedient because they were getting weed.
Hope all of you (despite how much I hate some of your football posts lol) are doing well.
Steps my employer has taken:
- temperature readings before entering work areas
- all common areas closed off
- hand sanitizer stations everywhere
- all door handles covered with nanoseptic surfacing
- anyone who can work from home should work from home (we have VPN etc.)
- $5 credit to on-site cafe every day
LOL...Exactly
absolutely.
I hope everyone and all of your families stay safe and healthy.
LiP
Hope all of you (despite how much I hate some of your football posts lol) are doing well.
sorry to hear. Near me (and maybe everywhere) Walmart, grocery stores, target, etc. are desperate for help.
Maybe something to hold you over if you have one close by.
A good friend tested positive, she was recently on the news and only because of a social media post and involvement from our local congressperson was she even allowed to be tested at a ProHealth urgent care.
Worried, I thought maybe I should get tested. My office has been asking me have I been tested and actually was asked again today by HR. So I called the Nassau county hotline and was surprised when they picked up after one ring. NC told me to try Northwell or ProHealth, that state testing would take days and that I probably wouldn’t be approved for a test anyway.
So I called Northwell and they scheduled me for a test this afternoon. I went, and waited in the parking lot for about an hour, filled out some paper work on my phone. Then the doctor called. Long story short, she was not going to test me at all until I told her that I had been in contact with a known positive.
I was allowed into the urgent care facility, which was locked and dark and empty, they gave me a mask and told me to wait in an exam room. Eventually the doctor came in and the first thing she said was excuse me for how ridiculous I look. The doctor had a plastic bag on her head, a surgical mask and splatter shield eye guard. She was wearing a onesy (sic?) she said she bought from Amazon with her own money. I asked, don’t they provide you any protective gear? No she said... nothing but the cotton gown and scrubs and the mask and gloves. Have you seen what they’re wearing in other countries, the doctor asked me. It’s like they’re going to the moon. Here, we have nothing.
She tested me for the flu, negative and told me that the covid19 test would take 5 to 7 days to come back. They’ll absolutely call you if you’re positive she said. In the meantime, continue to self quarantine and get plenty of rest.
I asked how things were at the hospital. She said it was already crazy at Northshore and just expected to get worse. We’re completely unprepared for this she said to me.
We wished each other good luck. I left and she stayed to clean the room.
Good luck to you, Matt and both your families
Hope all of you (despite how much I hate some of your football posts lol) are doing well.
I dont know you lol, bjt my dad ran the sales department dkmestic for wyndham worldiwde has friends in the hotel business , when this blows over if you need help perhaps my dad will know someone
Live in alameda ( Castro valley)
Deemed essential ( Cpa /taxes). Even with deadline extended
Till July 15. Took off weds thru Friday
Felt a little off but very well could be allergies. Peak time here in east bay
Debating on shortened schedule. Small office. Can keep our distance
We do use common kitchen and pass some paper work around
Lotsa Lysol and disinfectant going on
Hope all of you (despite how much I hate some of your football posts lol) are doing well.
Good Luck
of course cases went up, testing is ramping up, and remember these tests sre from 5 days ago, so you wont see the effect of social distancing for a few days
Live in alameda ( Castro valley)
Deemed essential ( Cpa /taxes). Even with deadline extended
Till July 15. Took off weds thru Friday
Felt a little off but very well could be allergies. Peak time here in east bay
Debating on shortened schedule. Small office. Can keep our distance
We do use common kitchen and pass some paper work around
Lotsa Lysol and disinfectant going on
Don't necessarily disagree with this approach, but it's a pertinent to evaluating reported infection figures.
ktla - ( New Window )
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The nation’s second-largest municipal health system has . .. instructed doctors not to bother testing symptomatic patients if a positive result won’t change how they would be treated. . . Doctors should test symptomatic patients only when “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”
Don't necessarily disagree with this approach, but it's a pertinent to evaluating reported infection figures.
ktla - ( New Window )
you can't test with kits you don't, regardless.
and i certainly do disagree with approach. assuming you did have enough tests, you don't deny data. one, patients may suffer long term respiratory issues and will need to know they had this, and two, it would help other people who are going out ("essentially") pull out earlier than waiting until they are symptomatic, if they become symptomatic.
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of course cases went up, testing is ramping up, and remember these tests sre from 5 days ago, so you wont see the effect of social distancing for a few days
you weren't supposed to be surprised cases went up. smh
you can't test with kits you don't, regardless.
and i certainly do disagree with approach. assuming you did have enough tests, you don't deny data. one, patients may suffer long term respiratory issues and will need to know they had this, and two, it would help other people who are going out ("essentially") pull out earlier than waiting until they are symptomatic, if they become symptomatic.
I would take the instruction to be directed at making the best use of the limited testing capacity available.
And the instruction is specifically directed at patients who are already symptomatic; it does not encourage refusing to test the "not yet symptomatic."
Quote:
you can't test with kits you don't, regardless.
and i certainly do disagree with approach. assuming you did have enough tests, you don't deny data. one, patients may suffer long term respiratory issues and will need to know they had this, and two, it would help other people who are going out ("essentially") pull out earlier than waiting until they are symptomatic, if they become symptomatic.
I would take the instruction to be directed at making the best use of the limited testing capacity available.
And the instruction is specifically directed at patients who are already symptomatic; it does not encourage refusing to test the "not yet symptomatic."
insofar as you're right, i agree - but that was my first comment anyway.
if you're not right, then not testing those whom it would not change the treatment plan for would support what i said, no? and if someone is asymptomatic they are not going to be treated at all, so there would be no differentiation also, no?
Quote:
you can't test with kits you don't, regardless.
and i certainly do disagree with approach. assuming you did have enough tests, you don't deny data. one, patients may suffer long term respiratory issues and will need to know they had this, and two, it would help other people who are going out ("essentially") pull out earlier than waiting until they are symptomatic, if they become symptomatic.
I would take the instruction to be directed at making the best use of the limited testing capacity available.
And the instruction is specifically directed at patients who are already symptomatic; it does not encourage refusing to test the "not yet symptomatic."
The problem with testing-on-demand, which everyone seems to want, is that a negative test doesn't do much for you. A negative test only tells you that you were negative at the moment you were tested (assuming no false negatives). You could have picked up the virus five minutes later. Or you could get it in a week. You're not safe, you just don't have it yet.
But positives might help you a lot. Maybe you quarantine more than you were. Maybe you seek medical attention more quickly if you start to feel worse. Or maybe you just sit and hope for the best, but at least you can prepare. Whatever that means.
A positive test is probably most relevant to your caregivers and health pros, who know how to handle you... your bathroom... your sheets... your dishes...
Great advice. I live alone, and only go out to shop for groceries, or walks. I see a lot of my neighbors out walking, and everyone stays at least six feet apart. I belong to a business networking group, and would routinely go to four or five of their events a month, along with other social events they cosponsor with other organizations. All of that has been cancelled. I'm binge watching "Planet Earth," which is fabulous, but I'd still like to go out more.
Here's hoping.
God bless you as well. I communicate regularly with my cousin in Florida, and am very active on LinkedIn.
On my second one already
I gotta say, you’re a really cheerful, positive dude. Cheers to you!
Haha. Thankfully liquor stores still open here in NC.
Haha. Thankfully liquor stores still open here in NC.
not surprising once new york did it, wonder for how long
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of course cases went up, testing is ramping up, and remember these tests sre from 5 days ago, so you wont see the effect of social distancing for a few days
We are not going to see the peak for weeks, not days.
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In comment 14844515 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
tonight that US Intelligence reports warned about a probable pandemic back in January & February.
In fairness, there were plenty of warnings out there publicly around the same time. Nobody listened.
I was reading about this in late December. And the potential issue if it got out of Wuhan.
EVERYONE took their eyes of this ball. Hopefully, we get through this quickly, and with limited damage, and make virus tracking and containment a MAJOR priority with key world allies...
Not EVERYONE. Scientists, including on this site, were ringing the alarm bells. The notion that nobody could have predicted this is hogwash. It has been predicted and it has been prepared for and out preparedness lapsed.
A lot of scientists in this area were voices in the wilderness and were ignored or ridiculed, including on this site. So forgive me for being a little testy when people say this will peak in 5 days, or that everyone dropped the ball. Those are not true. Not everyone dropped the ball. Professional scientists were shouting from the rooftops.
I am really sorry if I misread the posts.
I noticed that, too.
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In comment 14844260 montanagiant said:
Quote:
16,491 cases which are 2,702 new ones
224 Deaths up +17 from 12:00 AM this morning
Our resident statistician.
Keep up the good work ok’ buddy ..
Do you have a problem with keeping members informed? Does this bother you?
I forget t to go back and look heh. And I absolutely don’t have a problem . That did come off sounding a bit facetious though, didn’t it. I actually enjoy the stat . Keep it going .
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In comment 14844353 Canton said:
Quote:
In comment 14844260 montanagiant said:
Quote:
16,491 cases which are 2,702 new ones
224 Deaths up +17 from 12:00 AM this morning
Our resident statistician.
Keep up the good work ok’ buddy ..
Do you have a problem with keeping members informed? Does this bother you?
I forget t to go back and look heh. And I absolutely don’t have a problem . That did come off sounding a bit facetious though, didn’t it. I actually enjoy the stat . Keep it going .
No problem Canton
Not EVERYONE. Scientists, including on this site, were ringing the alarm bells. The notion that nobody could have predicted this is hogwash. It has been predicted and it has been prepared for and out preparedness lapsed.
Indeed, and I recall how those ringing the alarm bells were responded to, even on BBI, even by those who are now much more solemn. Imagine how those people would have reacted to drastic proactive measures to a threat they didn't even believe in.
Not EVERYONE. Scientists, including on this site, were ringing the alarm bells. The notion that nobody could have predicted this is hogwash. It has been predicted and it has been prepared for and out preparedness lapsed.
I should have been more specific - policy makers and media. My bad.
264 new ones +8 new deaths
as of 12:00 AM today
264 new ones +8 new deaths
as of 12:00 AM today
264 is the number of deaths, not new ones
Be safe Tommy
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Is telling us if we test positive but our symptoms are mild, we need to come to work. Yeah, very smart.
Be safe Tommy
Thanks. It's not me that I am worried about. I signed up for this. It's my family (especially my father who I take care of).
While all this is going on, it reminds me of how little regard some of these "first class police departments" have for their members. Sickening actually. I have yet to recieve a mask, was given 1 small bottle of purell and 1 pair of latex gloves (which I used the first day). Hope everyone here is staying safe. Keep your family in mind when you decide to go out there.
To add to this, also, don't worry. We have some wonderful celebs singing us all a nice tune during these trying times. I think we're all set for a good amount of time.
Imagine all the people? Oooo oooo - ( New Window )
hydoxychloroquine and azithromycin are cheap generic drugs(pills) used for many many years. Use may be limited by supply but I believe that Bayer and Teva will be ramping up production
remdesivir is an experimental intravenous medication that will be released by Gilead to patients who are on a ventilator but not so ill that they have limited chance to recover( on medication to support blood pressure).
My prayers are with all of you and your families
companies are starting to roll out inexpensive home testing so testing can be widely available soon
if we test EVERYONE . we can cull anyone infected and put them in quarentine
then wait a couple of days and test everyone AGAIN...
after the two round of testing we should probably have tracked down most of infected .and everyone can start to live normal life again.
eventually we will be reduced to small cluster outbreaks ..which could easily tracked and contained ..
this is the only way we get out of this mess short term
There’s a broader conversation we should have had as a society about the kinds of risks we need to manage, and the price we’re willing to pay for mitigating (or not mitigating) those risks. Pandemics, climate change, cyber, and assorted natural disasters are events that don’t touch us from day to day, so the cost of countermeasures can be a tough sell. My personal view is that we’ve overdone the “wars” on terror, drugs, and crime, and neglected some other, more existential threats. Although the Obama Administration built some good capabilities in the pandemic, climate science, and cyber spaces, they don’t seem to have built enough of a consensus - inside or outside the Beltway - to protect those capabilities from subsequent bulldozing.
An ounce of prevention is often, though not always, worth a pound of cure. Those conversations are complicated, the math can be overwhelming, and the results often depend on the assumptions, which are of course easy to manipulate. There’s also the issue of what we truly value. In the crudest terms, how bad is it if five million Americans - most of them elderly or otherwise vulnerable - die horribly over the course of a year? Until we start debating those questions in a civilized way, we’re likely to wind up arguing about whom to blame when the extreme-but-plausible scenario becomes reality.
" your health is your wealth "
That this self-professed analytic expert created his own "model". From the start of the crisis, he's taken bits of info and projections and has had the arrogance to say he's created a model to spew his outrageous numbers. It's his MO.
And my punishment for pointing this out will likely be a string of 5 paragraph posts with more made up figures and chest-thumping on why he should be taken seriously for his deeper understanding of math.
Wait, did you delete MY post? The one that FatMan just quoted... I didn't say anything political whatsoever. What was the purpose of deleting? I was pointing out why a poster's calculations were fundamentally incorrect, which I think is pertinent information. What did I do wrong? I wasn't the least bit hostile either, I mean the worst I said was that it was an "egregious oversight" that he made.
The data shows that the maximum number of transmissions occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 degrees and 13 degrees Celsius (37.4–55.4 degrees Fahrenheit).
The data also shows that countries with mean temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) have seen less than 5% of the total number of cases.
The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states.
The research from MIT is also consistent with work released Monday from Europe. That research determined that 95% of all cases globally took place in a temperature range of −2 degrees and 10 degrees Celsius (28.4–50 degrees Fahrenheit).
What does this all mean? As we quickly move into spring weather in the northern hemisphere (with temperatures in the 60s and above in Fahrenheit), we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically.
And even more encouraging is new data out of Norway demonstrating that mortality rates are only 0.38% and dropping as more people are tested. This is on par with a strong seasonal flu.
The reason that these numbers seem so low is that most countries are not testing their population for those who are asymptomatic – those that are producing or showing no symptoms of COVID-19 even though they contracted it.
We will see numbers even lower than this in the United States as the 400,000 tests a week that Roche is providing are utilized for testing.
NY - 0.54%
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World 4.2%..United States 1.3%..
NY - 0.54%
We do realize that this is, unfortunately, going to go up right? I hope folks are aware of this and not going to panic when it does.
Stating mortality figures without information about how many needed hospitalization is useless.
I assume gidie grabbed the wrong post to delete. I don't envy the job of moderating this site with its half strict/half relaxed rules and implementation of them
WRT to the comparison to a bad flu season, what’s the denominator for flu? Is it the number of people estimated to get infected, or just those who seek medical attention? I’m just wondering whether your analogy is apples-to-apples.
I assume gidie grabbed the wrong post to delete. I don't envy the job of moderating this site with its half strict/half relaxed rules and implementation of them
Ah, I see. Ugh. I spent way too much time writing that post as it was, but even more of a waste to now see it deleted lol. Wish I'd saved it somewhere.
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my innocuous post was deleted as well, while an overt post mentioning political names and praising one political party/condemning the other is left up.
I assume gidie grabbed the wrong post to delete. I don't envy the job of moderating this site with its half strict/half relaxed rules and implementation of them
Ah, I see. Ugh. I spent way too much time writing that post as it was, but even more of a waste to now see it deleted lol. Wish I'd saved it somewhere.
I don't see what you are referring to - but if you email me the link I will take a look at it.
it's not like either of us is likely to change any opinions.
Mostly, I think this thread is for people (like me) who can't stop their fingers from typing. Internet arguments are impossible to win. No one really listens/reads, and the vast majority of info has to be taken with a heavy grain of salt.
Unfortunately, the only way we’re likely to hold steady in the 0.5% range is if treatment options expand very rapidly.
The data shows that the maximum number of transmissions occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 degrees and 13 degrees Celsius (37.4–55.4 degrees Fahrenheit).
The data also shows that countries with mean temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) have seen less than 5% of the total number of cases.
The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states.
The research from MIT is also consistent with work released Monday from Europe. That research determined that 95% of all cases globally took place in a temperature range of −2 degrees and 10 degrees Celsius (28.4–50 degrees Fahrenheit).
What does this all mean? As we quickly move into spring weather in the northern hemisphere (with temperatures in the 60s and above in Fahrenheit), we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically.
And even more encouraging is new data out of Norway demonstrating that mortality rates are only 0.38% and dropping as more people are tested. This is on par with a strong seasonal flu.
The reason that these numbers seem so low is that most countries are not testing their population for those who are asymptomatic – those that are producing or showing no symptoms of COVID-19 even though they contracted it.
We will see numbers even lower than this in the United States as the 400,000 tests a week that Roche is providing are utilized for testing.
YANKEE28 -- do you have a link for source? Thanks!
Last night I also heard about a patient at Lenox Hill in NY. He was apparently near death and was given hydroxychloroquine and azithromicin and has done so well that he recovered and is expected to be going home this weekend.
Being a Giants fan the past few years, how can I be anything but an optimist........
I don't have a lot of faith in the following statement you made (or sited):
"The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states."
IMO, the Southern States in America, many of them with vast rural / semi-rural regions have not had any significant contact with the virus.
And it is NOT because NYC is in a colder climate region that has led to a dramatic spread of the disease! First and foremost, NYC is an international hub with thousands and thousands of people who visited everyday from overseas and domestically. And that says nothing about the millions of people who normally flow in and out of the city on a daily basis.
NYC population density is another huge issue, exacerbated by public transportation. I am unaware of any subways running through the towns of Coffeville, Mississippi; Jasper, Alabama; Summerville, Georgia; and Waldron, Arkansas!
Last night I also heard about a patient at Lenox Hill in NY. He was apparently near death and was given hydroxychloroquine and azithromicin and has done so well that he recovered and is expected to be going home this weekend.
Being a Giants fan the past few years, how can I be anything but an optimist........
You heard?
Would you like to venture a guess as to the veracity/accuracy of the second-hand or third-hand or whatever-hand information you received?
Azith is commonly used for range of bacterial and viral infections, commonly referred to as “Z-Pak”. Flu, sinus, bacterial infections. It’s considered successful in many antiviral or bacterial cocktails but won’t do much on its own, so not surprised it being deployed with range of other fever reducing medications and immune system therapies.
The good thing about ramping up drug therapies is it could help flatten the curve. They aren’t going to “cure” but therapeutic intervention could reduce severity for those who can fight it over a week or two and allow medical staff to triage and focus on those who need resourcing of critical or intensive care.
The problem I have seen and been reading is some of these patients think they can go back to running around as soon as they start feeling better (they need to stay home until all viral shedding stops). It’s why China took such a brute force approach to the treatment and quarantine protocols on patients. Some success there. I’m not sure how well this country will do with that approach.
We really need a vaccine ASAP.
I think we are in for an ugly week but let’s hope it’s the peak. Be well everybody.
Quote:
Research was just released (Friday afternoon) by MIT concerning the effect of temperatures on COVID-19 transmissions.
The data shows that the maximum number of transmissions occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 degrees and 13 degrees Celsius (37.4–55.4 degrees Fahrenheit).
The data also shows that countries with mean temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) have seen less than 5% of the total number of cases.
The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states.
The research from MIT is also consistent with work released Monday from Europe. That research determined that 95% of all cases globally took place in a temperature range of −2 degrees and 10 degrees Celsius (28.4–50 degrees Fahrenheit).
What does this all mean? As we quickly move into spring weather in the northern hemisphere (with temperatures in the 60s and above in Fahrenheit), we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically.
And even more encouraging is new data out of Norway demonstrating that mortality rates are only 0.38% and dropping as more people are tested. This is on par with a strong seasonal flu.
The reason that these numbers seem so low is that most countries are not testing their population for those who are asymptomatic – those that are producing or showing no symptoms of COVID-19 even though they contracted it.
We will see numbers even lower than this in the United States as the 400,000 tests a week that Roche is providing are utilized for testing.
YANKEE28 -- do you have a link for source? Thanks!
The quoted material is from an analyst. Lonk. The statement "we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically", might be true, but it will happen because we reduce transmission by the means public health experts are advocating.
This analysis over interprets the evidence for a weather effect, which is better described here MIT Press Release.
Note that the papers cited in the MIT article are not peer reviewed. I've read them and they are up front, as the MIT article is, that seasonality is something to hope for but not count on, and the current correlations with weather are weak.
Also, the fact that the virus may be more widespread is of little solace. What good does it do if we lower the mortality rate by 50% only by discovering that there are way more infected people than we thought. The immediate crisis is due to the inability of the health care system to handle the treatment of sick people, which is starting to happen in NYC right now.
I don't think it is doom or gloom to focus on the issues at hand. Slow the transmission, treat the sick.
Quote:
Research was just released (Friday afternoon) by MIT concerning the effect of temperatures on COVID-19 transmissions.
The data shows that the maximum number of transmissions occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 degrees and 13 degrees Celsius (37.4–55.4 degrees Fahrenheit).
The data also shows that countries with mean temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) have seen less than 5% of the total number of cases.
The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states.
The research from MIT is also consistent with work released Monday from Europe. That research determined that 95% of all cases globally took place in a temperature range of −2 degrees and 10 degrees Celsius (28.4–50 degrees Fahrenheit).
What does this all mean? As we quickly move into spring weather in the northern hemisphere (with temperatures in the 60s and above in Fahrenheit), we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically.
And even more encouraging is new data out of Norway demonstrating that mortality rates are only 0.38% and dropping as more people are tested. This is on par with a strong seasonal flu.
The reason that these numbers seem so low is that most countries are not testing their population for those who are asymptomatic – those that are producing or showing no symptoms of COVID-19 even though they contracted it.
We will see numbers even lower than this in the United States as the 400,000 tests a week that Roche is providing are utilized for testing.
YANKEE28 -- do you have a link for source? Thanks!
Don't know if this is the same source, but I linked this report about 30 pages back
Temperature Effects - ( New Window )
More than 75% reported high blood pressure, while 35% had diabetes and 33% had heart disease, according to the study.
Quote:
In comment 14844743 YANKEE28 said:
Quote:
Research was just released (Friday afternoon) by MIT concerning the effect of temperatures on COVID-19 transmissions.
The data shows that the maximum number of transmissions occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 degrees and 13 degrees Celsius (37.4–55.4 degrees Fahrenheit).
The data also shows that countries with mean temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) have seen less than 5% of the total number of cases.
The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states.
The research from MIT is also consistent with work released Monday from Europe. That research determined that 95% of all cases globally took place in a temperature range of −2 degrees and 10 degrees Celsius (28.4–50 degrees Fahrenheit).
What does this all mean? As we quickly move into spring weather in the northern hemisphere (with temperatures in the 60s and above in Fahrenheit), we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically.
And even more encouraging is new data out of Norway demonstrating that mortality rates are only 0.38% and dropping as more people are tested. This is on par with a strong seasonal flu.
The reason that these numbers seem so low is that most countries are not testing their population for those who are asymptomatic – those that are producing or showing no symptoms of COVID-19 even though they contracted it.
We will see numbers even lower than this in the United States as the 400,000 tests a week that Roche is providing are utilized for testing.
YANKEE28 -- do you have a link for source? Thanks!
Don't know if this is the same source, but I linked this report about 30 pages back Temperature Effects - ( New Window )
Lets hope this proves to be true and we start to emerge from this nightmare.
Tell them no. If they give you any shit about that, go to the media.
More than 75% reported high blood pressure, while 35% had diabetes and 33% had heart disease, according to the study.
Unfortunately about 1 out of every 3 Americans has high blood pressure alone.
The worldwide numbers are that over 85% of the people hospitalized under the age of 50 have underlying conditions of asthma or treatment or other conditions like Cancer or advanced diabetes or respiratory ailments like CP.
If you add in high blood pressure and other minor issues, that number goes to the mid-90%.
The point is that portraying it as a life-threatening condition for otherwise healthy people is disingenuous.
The data shows that the maximum number of transmissions occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 degrees and 13 degrees Celsius (37.4–55.4 degrees Fahrenheit).
The data also shows that countries with mean temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) have seen less than 5% of the total number of cases.
The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states.
The research from MIT is also consistent with work released Monday from Europe. That research determined that 95% of all cases globally took place in a temperature range of −2 degrees and 10 degrees Celsius (28.4–50 degrees Fahrenheit).
What does this all mean? As we quickly move into spring weather in the northern hemisphere (with temperatures in the 60s and above in Fahrenheit), we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically.
I wonder of the true correlation here is sunlight and not just warmth. Despite their warm climate, Spain and Italy are relatively north as is the whole European continent. Meanwhile developing countries further south as well as the entire southern hemisphere have seen lighter infection rates
The worldwide numbers are that over 85% of the people hospitalized under the age of 50 have underlying conditions of asthma or treatment or other conditions like Cancer or advanced diabetes or respiratory ailments like CP.
If you add in high blood pressure and other minor issues, that number goes to the mid-90%.
The point is that portraying it as a life-threatening condition for otherwise healthy people is disingenuous.
I suspect a lot of Americans view themselves as ‘healthy’ despite their high blood pressure (particularly amongst those for whom it’s primarily genetic). So I think we need to be careful with the ‘healthy’ proclamation. It could be misinterpreted by folks.
No hospitalization or no real medical care it sounds other than maybe telemedicine type calls.
Link - ( New Window )
But, there are a LOT of folk who fall in the at risk category. And I don't think it is fully understood what health conditions puts one into at risk category. It's becoming clearer all the while.
I agree with your sentiment a day or two ago that quarantine efforts should revolve around protecting the at risk folk, but considering that so much is still unknown, and that most of these folk are in mixed households, and that you can't rely on people to sort themselves out, that might be easier said than done.
I remember someone bragging about the discounted cruise tickets he was able to purchase due to all the panicking pansies out there. I wonder if he is going to chicken out and cancel that cruise.
Quote:
Research was just released (Friday afternoon) by MIT concerning the effect of temperatures on COVID-19 transmissions.
The data shows that the maximum number of transmissions occurred in regions that had temperatures between 3 degrees and 13 degrees Celsius (37.4–55.4 degrees Fahrenheit).
The data also shows that countries with mean temperatures above 18 degrees Celsius (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit) have seen less than 5% of the total number of cases.
The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states.
The research from MIT is also consistent with work released Monday from Europe. That research determined that 95% of all cases globally took place in a temperature range of −2 degrees and 10 degrees Celsius (28.4–50 degrees Fahrenheit).
What does this all mean? As we quickly move into spring weather in the northern hemisphere (with temperatures in the 60s and above in Fahrenheit), we are going to see the number of new cases fall dramatically.
I've been wondering about that myself. One would expect India to get slammed but the number of infections and death in India and the rest of Southeast Asia have been low , despite their population density, pollution and poor infrastructure . On the other hand Spain and Italy, both warm weather countries have been slammed.
I wonder of the true correlation here is sunlight and not just warmth. Despite their warm climate, Spain and Italy are relatively north as is the whole European continent. Meanwhile developing countries further south as well as the entire southern hemisphere have seen lighter infection rates
Because a lot of them don’t have the infrastructure nor controls China implements. They also arent testing and reporting.
Malaysia and Singapore are only just now ramping up testing. South America also isn’t doing much. Brazil doesn’t pay much attention to its favelas unless it’s a police or army presence. Also note that they’re going to be heading into their “cold” season soon.
India has a horrific health infrastructure. It’s been there for months. They just werent actively managing it but are starting too. They have a lot of equally troubling difficulties managing HIV, mosquito borne illnesses they have to focus on.
You do realize we lag areas like Italy by about 10-14 days? We are at the beginning and Italy is smack dab in the middle of it. It takes a little while for the virus to kill someone.
Quote:
World 4.2%..United States 1.3%..
You do realize we lag areas like Italy by about 10-14 days? We are at the beginning and Italy is smack dab in the middle of it. It takes a little while for the virus to kill someone.
Very true ... but the denominator isn’t even close to accurate either. Even in Italy where their average / median age tested positive is 63. In other words, only the higher risk / showing meaningful symptoms are bothering to
Get tested
I didn’t say they haven’t been Mets. My point is people are getting too caught up on projections yet where we need broader data collection and a good time horizon still.
They’ve only started expanding their testing protocols to the broader population en masse. They have been fantastic in their lockdown and distancing protocols because they knew it would take time to test widely and cleanly to hold for a month or more. But their testing regimens in terms of population percentages are still ramping up. They’re also doing followup testing which is good to see how long the virus persists and what long term quarantine is needed for patients.
South Korea has been outstanding as well. They learned from the SARS event and planned for it. We are going to have to learn from this.
Quote:
put aside high blood pressure or obesity.
The worldwide numbers are that over 85% of the people hospitalized under the age of 50 have underlying conditions of asthma or treatment or other conditions like Cancer or advanced diabetes or respiratory ailments like CP.
If you add in high blood pressure and other minor issues, that number goes to the mid-90%.
The point is that portraying it as a life-threatening condition for otherwise healthy people is disingenuous.
I suspect a lot of Americans view themselves as ‘healthy’ despite their high blood pressure (particularly amongst those for whom it’s primarily genetic). So I think we need to be careful with the ‘healthy’ proclamation. It could be misinterpreted by folks.
I have a question about the high blood pressure comments. Lots of people have slightly high blood pressure, but take medicine to bring it down to 120/80 just because its easy to do (and more healthy). So with the medicine they are on the money every day. Are they what you are talking about, or is it the folks at 150+ blood pressure, 200+ blood pressure, etc?
Cuomo's press conferences have been outstanding ..
Preparedness is key. Suppression is also.
Singapore Readiness - ( New Window )
CDC - Age hospitalization - ( New Window )
Cuomo's press conferences have been outstanding ..
I've never liked him ... but I agree 100 % ... He gives facts, implications, what was done, what will be done and what help is still needed and where ... very well prepared and logically presented ... still he tends to be a self absorbed pontificating speaker ... but his content makes me forget that ...
Cuomo's press conferences have been outstanding ..
Agreed. Andrew Cuomo is doing one hell of a job stepping into the breach and leading during a crisis.
Likely to announce more testing sites, hospital support plans, and lockdown for next couple weeks.
Just FYI.
Drove around just last hour in few towns by me and folks are storming downtowns and stores still in advance.
All of the scientists point to Italy as an example of what can happen, and have repeatedly repeated the hypothesis that we are “2 weeks behind Italy.” On March 15, the US surgeon general re-affirmed the “2 weeks behind Italy” theory — and hospitals are gearing up for a big wave of hospitalizations.
Let’s keep that timing in mind — it may come to pass that an Italy-style tsunami hits in the next 9-10 days. But if it doesn’t, and the US strain of the virus is more like the German strain, I am hopeful that we can revisit a more proportional response. It matters because the economic carnage is real — and should only be continued if the ever-changing data continues to support an emergency response.
Quote:
?
I remember someone bragging about the discounted cruise tickets he was able to purchase due to all the panicking pansies out there. I wonder if he is going to chicken out and cancel that cruise.
What?
But, there are a LOT of folk who fall in the at risk category. And I don't think it is fully understood what health conditions puts one into at risk category. It's becoming clearer all the while.
I agree with your sentiment a day or two ago that quarantine efforts should revolve around protecting the at risk folk, but considering that so much is still unknown, and that most of these folk are in mixed households, and that you can't rely on people to sort themselves out, that might be easier said than done.
fkap. That's fair. I think the two of us have both opined that the lasting legacy of this year will be the economic impact that will be absolutely devastating for a lot of people. Not to mention the side effects of losing a business or going broke.
Maybe there isn't a better way to have stopped life as we know it, but if Draconian measures were going to be put into place, you still could have implemented tough tactics and had disruptions on a much smaller scale. Isolate the elderly and at risk. Keep them by themselves with only contact with people who aren't infected. Not easy to do, but either is what we're doing now, and we are going to see a ton of people with lives altered dramatically. Healthy people who won't even contract the virus.
All of the scientists point to Italy as an example of what can happen, and have repeatedly repeated the hypothesis that we are “2 weeks behind Italy.” On March 15, the US surgeon general re-affirmed the “2 weeks behind Italy” theory — and hospitals are gearing up for a big wave of hospitalizations.
Let’s keep that timing in mind — it may come to pass that an Italy-style tsunami hits in the next 9-10 days. But if it doesn’t, and the US strain of the virus is more like the German strain, I am hopeful that we can revisit a more proportional response. It matters because the economic carnage is real — and should only be continued if the ever-changing data continues to support an emergency response.
If it doesnt spike in a couple of weeks people are going to say f you i am going out...
Quote:
I won't speak to any narrative that it is (or isn't) life threatening to otherwise healthy folk.
But, there are a LOT of folk who fall in the at risk category. And I don't think it is fully understood what health conditions puts one into at risk category. It's becoming clearer all the while.
I agree with your sentiment a day or two ago that quarantine efforts should revolve around protecting the at risk folk, but considering that so much is still unknown, and that most of these folk are in mixed households, and that you can't rely on people to sort themselves out, that might be easier said than done.
fkap. That's fair. I think the two of us have both opined that the lasting legacy of this year will be the economic impact that will be absolutely devastating for a lot of people. Not to mention the side effects of losing a business or going broke.
Maybe there isn't a better way to have stopped life as we know it, but if Draconian measures were going to be put into place, you still could have implemented tough tactics and had disruptions on a much smaller scale. Isolate the elderly and at risk. Keep them by themselves with only contact with people who aren't infected. Not easy to do, but either is what we're doing now, and we are going to see a ton of people with lives altered dramatically. Healthy people who won't even contract the virus.
You can’t isolate the sick and the elderly. The only way to protect vulnerable people is to stop the epidemic and that involves all of us. You can’t just say to yourself that in your demographic things are mild so just let it happen. That helps to perpetuate an epidemic that is deadly to people less healthy than you.
This whole Nationwide shut down is not the way to do it. This shit is going to spread period. Local areas should act to force a quarantine as soon it looks like their health care system is about to get overrun. 2 months of this is going to be devastating. Why do they think 15 days of this is going to work, I'd love to see the math on this , the issue is going to be when we have max infections, when is that going to be? I have a hard time believing that is within two weeks.
hydroxychloroquine suppresses/lowers the immune system, right? Which by what you state may be effective vs. this virus by having fewer receptors for it to attach to. That’s an interesting development as I’m on a different immunosuppressive medication that acts similar to hydroxychloroquine. So while my immune system is compromised it may actually help in this case. Hopefully we’re able to find out more about the potential use of hydroxychloroquine.
Matt Bradley
@MattMcBradley
· 5m
BREAKING: Yet another record-breaking day here in #Italy: 793 people have died, far exceeding the record set yesterday. There are now 4,825 dead in Italy.
All of the scientists point to Italy as an example of what can happen, and have repeatedly repeated the hypothesis that we are “2 weeks behind Italy.” On March 15, the US surgeon general re-affirmed the “2 weeks behind Italy” theory — and hospitals are gearing up for a big wave of hospitalizations.
Let’s keep that timing in mind — it may come to pass that an Italy-style tsunami hits in the next 9-10 days. But if it doesn’t, and the US strain of the virus is more like the German strain, I am hopeful that we can revisit a more proportional response. It matters because the economic carnage is real — and should only be continued if the ever-changing data continues to support an emergency response.
I agree with you Jim. My guess is the higher ups were trying to figure this out for quite some time. The pressure of the rest of the world doing this has contributed to the stance here imo. Certainly strong arguments on both sides and one that will be debated for years.
4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.90% March 16 (86 of 4,503)
1.66% March 18 (150 of 9,003)
1.51% March 19 (208 of 13,789)
1.27% March 21 (282 of 22,132) (so far on 3/21)
as more get tested more show positive, lower percent die. Just need to hope that positive number starts to plateau.
Quote:
there are some data that suggest that the virus attaches to a receptor whose name is ACE2. This same receptor in the lower respiratory tract is influenced by certain BP meds including Losartan, Irbesartan and many others. The point being made is whether patients taking these drugs or drugs interacting with this receptor are at higher risk because of that. In essence, those patients on these drugs have a greater number of receptors for the virus to attach to and theoretically could be more severely affected. In other words, taking these drugs would expose more receptors and this increased number might make a patient sicker. Focused, but likely there are multifactorial reasons for this association. It is interesting from a scientific point of view as it does give us an idea about a possible mechanism. BTW hydroxychoroquine may act favorably through this receptor blocking the effect of viral attachment, thus an increasing sense of understanding. Let us all hope this translates into something favorable
hydroxychloroquine suppresses/lowers the immune system, right? Which by what you state may be effective vs. this virus by having fewer receptors for it to attach to. That’s an interesting development as I’m on a different immunosuppressive medication that acts similar to hydroxychloroquine. So while my immune system is compromised it may actually help in this case. Hopefully we’re able to find out more about the potential use of hydroxychloroquine.
The data on this is inconclusive and all theory. Since I have am Lisinopril I have looked into it. No one has real data, just theories, and there are articles written supporting both sides. Some say there is a theory that these drugs will make you more susceptible, and some say these medicines will actually provide you protection against Covid 19 because of it can fight against lung complications. In summary there have been no studies, its all theories on both sides, and there was a study in animals showing these drugs can actually help. I have read about people switching from ACE-i (inhibitor like Lisinopril) to ARB solutions (which reduce the receptors) because they read a study. However everyone says this is a big over reaction
But there is a solution there that is somewhere between a complete shutdown and letting all people under 50 go free and clear. I believe we could have enacted reasonable social distancing measures and had working from home for many office employees to help disrupt things while still taking much more serious measures with the elderly and at risk.
And let's be honest - if this virus is as communicable as the common cold, we can't look at shutdowns every year. We can't just mass immunize people and not expect other issues to pop up.
Think about what is happening. Businesses who operate month to month may never open again. Employees paid by the hour are going to be in financial distress and possibly unemployed. And putting aside the economic impact. People can't go to the dentist for non-emergency issues. People are being denied treatment for chronic diseases/afflictions until this clears. Barbershops are closed. Elective surgeries, some that are still pressing needs, are being shelved. We will have displaced trillions of dollars with everything that has shutdown.
Will the ends justify the means? I don't know. Seems like a ton of ancillary issues have been created. But I'm fairly certain there was a better solution.
4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.90% March 16 (86 of 4,503)
1.66% March 18 (150 of 9,003)
1.51% March 19 (208 of 13,789)
1.27% March 21 (282 of 22,132) (so far on 3/21)
as more get tested more show positive, lower percent die. Just need to hope that positive number starts to plateau.
Also important to keep in mind here. The rate at which people are dying would by nature lag behind the growth curve of infections. We won’t understand the real mortality rate for some time.
1% is 10X worse than seasonal flu. Let’s not downplay it.
4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.90% March 16 (86 of 4,503)
1.66% March 18 (150 of 9,003)
1.51% March 19 (208 of 13,789)
1.27% March 21 (282 of 22,132) (so far on 3/21)
as more get tested more show positive, lower percent die. Just need to hope that positive number starts to plateau.
Very helpful stats. The constantly evolving data should form a basis for determining a proportional response. If the “2 weeks behind Italy” curve model so widely adopted in forming our current response proves to be faulty, I very much hope that public figures can acknowledge it and reformulate the response. Hospitalization and death rates are the key here.
Quote:
US fatality rate continues to fall (i'd like to see the positive test rate out of all tested, that would be a good indicator. My local hospital says they tested 400 and all were negative).
4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.90% March 16 (86 of 4,503)
1.66% March 18 (150 of 9,003)
1.51% March 19 (208 of 13,789)
1.27% March 21 (282 of 22,132) (so far on 3/21)
as more get tested more show positive, lower percent die. Just need to hope that positive number starts to plateau.
Also important to keep in mind here. The rate at which people are dying would by nature lag behind the growth curve of infections. We won’t understand the real mortality rate for some time.
Comparatively speaking though we are behind (fatality rate) where Italy was at a similar point, and people keep wanting to compare the US to Italy from a timing standpoint.
High in the beginning due to lack of testing, plunges in the middle as more are tested and hospitals can keep up.
High at the end if hospitals are overwhelmed.
High in the beginning due to lack of testing, plunges in the middle as more are tested and hospitals can keep up.
High at the end if hospitals are overwhelmed.
Hospitals are overwhelmed because people with no symptoms are running to the er to get tested..
Quote:
has a 1 percent mortality rate. Guy is an expert in epidemics. He looks at the numbers and can effectively put them in context. Regardless of the bullshit number that have been spewed here.
1% is 10X worse than seasonal flu. Let’s not downplay it.
I wonder how much the seasonal flu vaccine contributes to the seasonal flu death rate though.
What I mean is if there was no flu shot, and even in a year where the flu shot was minimally effective, what would the season flu death rate look like?
Don't know, just fast forwarding to say next year when we do have a COVID-19 vaccine (hopefully) how would it compare to seasonal flu?
This whole shut down is not the way to do it, the economic cost is going to crush us for decades. Listening to this presser, the messaging is that we are going to bounce back stronger than ever. Which is bullshit, you can't get back the vast majority of lost productivity and wealth. Local areas should enact extremely strict, unprecedented, lockdowns when it looks like the health care system is going to get overwhelmed.
The messaging from the beginning should have been work from home and awareness, but they wanted to believe in sunshine and ponies, it isn't like they didn't know this was going to happen and that is apparent by the stock selling that took place. Outside of that I don't really have a critique about the response, but I think this two week shut down is a test to see the consequences of a long term shut down, it's already apparent this can't go on.
I was out and about yesterday and the stories I heard are heart breaking. Many people's jobs aren't safe. An unprecedented amount. This is killing the very old and sick and generally both. The vast majority of people didn't give a shit about their health to begin with like 90 percent of Americans. Hard for me to get worked up about the consequences of years of shitty choices, when people are out there that have done all the right things, are being punished and many are facing homelessness and strife. Why punish them? Many of these jobs aren't coming back, and its delusional to think so.
The # of deaths are reasonably known.
The # infected is not.
The rate is the same no matter what. It's the accounting that is changing.
Testing is important, no doubt. But people are clinging to it like it's some kind of magic panacea that is going to save the day.
Quote:
has a 1 percent mortality rate. Guy is an expert in epidemics. He looks at the numbers and can effectively put them in context. Regardless of the bullshit number that have been spewed here.
1% is 10X worse than seasonal flu. Let’s not downplay it.
Right, but it is killing the sick and elderly, and generally both. What are you going to do? These people die of other causes all the time. We already have an unprecedented homelessness crisis, the shit is going to be much, much worse. This whole stopping mortgage payments works for a bit, but what happens when people don't get their jobs back and mortgage payments need to resume?
Where are people going to go? All restaurants, parks etc are closed.
The # of deaths are reasonably known.
The # infected is not.
The rate is the same no matter what. It's the accounting that is changing.
Testing is important, no doubt. But people are clinging to it like it's some kind of magic panacea that is going to save the day.
We have known that the mortality rate is 1% for some time, at least those of those that understand numbers and the context they come in. Fauci has said as much for weeks. So its essentially a flu that is ten times deadlier. Terrible, but it is still killing the same population group for the most part and those with high blood pressure. There is some information now I've seen that the medicines are causing a lot of this. Hopefully that is true so we can get people off their meds for a bit. Maybe people will start taking their health seriously, instead of relying on meds.
Quote:
In comment 14844979 snickers said:
Quote:
there are some data that suggest that the virus attaches to a receptor whose name is ACE2. This same receptor in the lower respiratory tract is influenced by certain BP meds including Losartan, Irbesartan and many others. The point being made is whether patients taking these drugs or drugs interacting with this receptor are at higher risk because of that. In essence, those patients on these drugs have a greater number of receptors for the virus to attach to and theoretically could be more severely affected. In other words, taking these drugs would expose more receptors and this increased number might make a patient sicker. Focused, but likely there are multifactorial reasons for this association. It is interesting from a scientific point of view as it does give us an idea about a possible mechanism. BTW hydroxychoroquine may act favorably through this receptor blocking the effect of viral attachment, thus an increasing sense of understanding. Let us all hope this translates into something favorable
hydroxychloroquine suppresses/lowers the immune system, right? Which by what you state may be effective vs. this virus by having fewer receptors for it to attach to. That’s an interesting development as I’m on a different immunosuppressive medication that acts similar to hydroxychloroquine. So while my immune system is compromised it may actually help in this case. Hopefully we’re able to find out more about the potential use of hydroxychloroquine.
The data on this is inconclusive and all theory. Since I have am Lisinopril I have looked into it. No one has real data, just theories, and there are articles written supporting both sides. Some say there is a theory that these drugs will make you more susceptible, and some say these medicines will actually provide you protection against Covid 19 because of it can fight against lung complications. In summary there have been no studies, its all theories on both sides, and there was a study in animals showing these drugs can actually help. I have read about people switching from ACE-i (inhibitor like Lisinopril) to ARB solutions (which reduce the receptors) because they read a study. However everyone says this is a big over reaction
Here is a great great video on ACE inhibitors and ARB's, and Covid. He presents actual biological facts, and concludes that there is no conclusive data and if he was pressed he would come down on the side of ACE-i and ARB can actually help against Covid (which is the stance of the EU CDC also).
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
I wonder how much the seasonal flu vaccine contributes to the seasonal flu death rate though.
What I mean is if there was no flu shot, and even in a year where the flu shot was minimally effective, what would the season flu death rate look like?
Don't know, just fast forwarding to say next year when we do have a COVID-19 vaccine (hopefully) how would it compare to seasonal flu?
Thats a good point. The flu vaccine generally reduces the severity even if you get it. And the population group that is most at risk generally gets flu shots.
I doubt that, the numbers in Florida seem similar to numbers elsewhere, but I'm not positive.
Quote:
hope the antiviral or antibody therapies work, since treatment is our best option to buy the time necessary to get to a vaccine. There is also some anecdotal evidence that the virus is harder to transmit in hot, humid, weather, and may be negatively affected by UV light. We'll know more in a few weeks.
I doubt that, the numbers in Florida seem similar to numbers elsewhere, but I'm not positive.
There are a few articles on reduced transmission in 80+ weather posted earlier in the thread. Keeping my fingers crossed because "summer is coming" (to copy GOT)
Where the hell are people going to go? Although, I feel like some of our response has been driven by public outcry. That is going to change after some time with absolutely nothing to do.
Quote:
US fatality rate continues to fall (i'd like to see the positive test rate out of all tested, that would be a good indicator. My local hospital says they tested 400 and all were negative).
4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.90% March 16 (86 of 4,503)
1.66% March 18 (150 of 9,003)
1.51% March 19 (208 of 13,789)
1.27% March 21 (282 of 22,132) (so far on 3/21)
as more get tested more show positive, lower percent die. Just need to hope that positive number starts to plateau.
Very helpful stats. The constantly evolving data should form a basis for determining a proportional response. If the “2 weeks behind Italy” curve model so widely adopted in forming our current response proves to be faulty, I very much hope that public figures can acknowledge it and reformulate the response. Hospitalization and death rates are the key here.
Jim, from all the public health professionals, the response and posture we are taking is fully intended to PREVENT the Italy scenario rather than responding to it happening. They also want to prevent a see saw effect up and down and up and down on things. I think we are taking right approach now and will adjust the levers and belts if you will as we go.
Could it be lessened or adjusted geographically? Sure. But you better strap in. We just don’t know what’s going to happen in a few weeks or
months. Hell this thing could come back again and again over next year, could be more virulent, could become just a mild cold.
I also think the larger economic and financial aftershocks are going to be severe but that was already happening and will continue to happen into next year. In a way, this event is just hastening an overdue global economic adjustment. I feel terrible for folks losing portfolios and jobs but we were living on borrowed time and money from the last recession and really the last two in all honesty.
Closed TEMPORARILY for deep cleanings because of concerns of Covid-19 exposures to staff!
Lol whomever this is text me.
I don't have a lot of faith in the following statement you made (or sited):
"The researchers at MIT also determined that this data is consistent with the data seen in the United States. Specifically, the southern, warmer states have seen dramatically less growth in the outbreak than the cooler northern states."
IMO, the Southern States in America, many of them with vast rural / semi-rural regions have not had any significant contact with the virus.
And it is NOT because NYC is in a colder climate region that has led to a dramatic spread of the disease! First and foremost, NYC is an international hub with thousands and thousands of people who visited everyday from overseas and domestically. And that says nothing about the millions of people who normally flow in and out of the city on a daily basis.
NYC population density is another huge issue, exacerbated by public transportation. I am unaware of any subways running through the towns of Coffeville, Mississippi; Jasper, Alabama; Summerville, Georgia; and Waldron, Arkansas!
Yeh this doesn't pass the smell test. Many souther states are much less population dense then places in the North. The places with high density in Florida - Tampa Bay - Miami area seem to have the same numbers as elsewhere. Its like people are grasping onto anything. I mean it doesn't take much thought to realize there are a ton of factors that can lead to this. I didn't even look at the study, because honestly, it probably isn't worth the time. But if these issues are addressed in it I'll be glad to listen to whoever did.
3/19 - 427
3/20 - 627
3/21 - 793
Again, lots of reasons to hope things won't get that bad here, but they are a country 5x smaller than ours. If we have a day with almost 5k dead over the next month that will be catastrophic.
Coronavirus death toll surges in Italy and Spain - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14845040 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
has a 1 percent mortality rate. Guy is an expert in epidemics. He looks at the numbers and can effectively put them in context. Regardless of the bullshit number that have been spewed here.
1% is 10X worse than seasonal flu. Let’s not downplay it.
Right, but it is killing the sick and elderly, and generally both. What are you going to do? These people die of other causes all the time. We already have an unprecedented homelessness crisis, the shit is going to be much, much worse. This whole stopping mortgage payments works for a bit, but what happens when people don't get their jobs back and mortgage payments need to resume?
I agree with Zeke. I get keeping things closed up for another 2-3 weeks to slow the spread, but then I think it’s time to take our chances before all of us lose our jobs. This is bad but it’s not Ebola.
I don’t believe anything that is publicized by the Chinese government. The one thing I keep wondering is how Russia is doing. Haven’t heard much on that front.
Here is a layman's article about the study.
Here is the actual study - ( New Window )
There's also conflicting data to suggest a protective effect of ACE inhibitors or ARBs. There is not enough data right now. The ESC, ACC, AHA and HFSA have recommended continuing them.
Layman's version - ( New Window )
Quote:
There have been no news cases of the virus reported in China. I hope that is true.
I don’t believe anything that is publicized by the Chinese government. The one thing I keep wondering is how Russia is doing. Haven’t heard much on that front.
Russia is doing really well according to WHO, and of course also Russia
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14845160 No Where Man said:
Quote:
There have been no news cases of the virus reported in China. I hope that is true.
I don’t believe anything that is publicized by the Chinese government. The one thing I keep wondering is how Russia is doing. Haven’t heard much on that front.
Russia is doing really well according to WHO, and of course also Russia Link - ( New Window )
Interesting
Quote:
there are some data that suggest that the virus attaches to a receptor whose name is ACE2. This same receptor in the lower respiratory tract is influenced by certain BP meds including Losartan, Irbesartan and many others. The point being made is whether patients taking these drugs or drugs interacting with this receptor are at higher risk because of that. In essence, those patients on these drugs have a greater number of receptors for the virus to attach to and theoretically could be more severely affected.
There's also conflicting data to suggest a protective effect of ACE inhibitors or ARBs. There is not enough data right now. The ESC, ACC, AHA and HFSA have recommended continuing them.
Posted this great video above. He walks through technically the whole debate in an easy to understand way. In the end he concludes there isn't enough data, and if pushed he would come down on the side the ACE-i and ARB would help fight Covid, not make it worse.
Link - ( New Window )
The # of deaths are reasonably known.
The # infected is not.
The rate is the same no matter what. It's the accounting that is changing.
Testing is important, no doubt. But people are clinging to it like it's some kind of magic panacea that is going to save the day.
I don't think anyone is doing that. People were throwing all these wild numbers out there to support the argument we need to have martial law in effect.
One positive out of this is that anyone that didn't think McL was a terrible analytics expert, now have concrete proof of his inability to properly contextualize numbers. Guy is pretty good with the math, I'll give him that, but I'd want him far and away from any decision making processes those numbers gleam.
Quote:
In comment 14845160 No Where Man said:
Quote:
There have been no news cases of the virus reported in China. I hope that is true.
I don’t believe anything that is publicized by the Chinese government. The one thing I keep wondering is how Russia is doing. Haven’t heard much on that front.
Russia is doing really well according to WHO, and of course also Russia Link - ( New Window )
Another Russia covid article
Link - ( New Window )
Here is a layman's article about the study. Here is the actual study - ( New Window )
Because it is anecdotal until scientists get a chance to run their own against it, especially with a sample size of 30.
Quote:
You can’t isolate the sick and the elderly. The only way to protect vulnerable people is to stop the epidemic and that involves all of us. You can’t just say to yourself that in your demographic things are mild so just let it happen. That helps to perpetuate an epidemic that is deadly to people less healthy than you.
But there is a solution there that is somewhere between a complete shutdown and letting all people under 50 go free and clear. I believe we could have enacted reasonable social distancing measures and had working from home for many office employees to help disrupt things while still taking much more serious measures with the elderly and at risk.
And let's be honest - if this virus is as communicable as the common cold, we can't look at shutdowns every year. We can't just mass immunize people and not expect other issues to pop up.
Think about what is happening. Businesses who operate month to month may never open again. Employees paid by the hour are going to be in financial distress and possibly unemployed. And putting aside the economic impact. People can't go to the dentist for non-emergency issues. People are being denied treatment for chronic diseases/afflictions until this clears. Barbershops are closed. Elective surgeries, some that are still pressing needs, are being shelved. We will have displaced trillions of dollars with everything that has shutdown.
Will the ends justify the means? I don't know. Seems like a ton of ancillary issues have been created. But I'm fairly certain there was a better solution.
The solution has to involve ending the epidemic. These different methods have been simulated and run against real world data. The average number of contacts and the variance in the number of contacts needs to drop below certain values. It is a real biological thing and the outcome means the difference between cases in the hundreds of thousands versus millions. This literature is available and that is why epidemiologists are pretty unanimous.
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This was a controlled trial run by respected researcher, Professor Didier Raoult from infection hospital l'Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire (IHU) Méditerranée Infection in Marseille.
Here is a layman's article about the study. Here is the actual study - ( New Window )
Because it is anecdotal until scientists get a chance to run their own against it, especially with a sample size of 30.
It has to be the sample size, 20 cases, not much to go on. That is a preliminary report from an ongoing study.
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In comment 14844757 fkap said:
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my innocuous post was deleted as well, while an overt post mentioning political names and praising one political party/condemning the other is left up.
I assume gidie grabbed the wrong post to delete. I don't envy the job of moderating this site with its half strict/half relaxed rules and implementation of them
Ah, I see. Ugh. I spent way too much time writing that post as it was, but even more of a waste to now see it deleted lol. Wish I'd saved it somewhere.
I don't see what you are referring to - but if you email me the link I will take a look at it.
gidie -- how can I e-mail you a link if the post was deleted? FatMan quoted it in his 8:24 AM quote. You'll see one of my paragraphs quoted in his post, but that text is nowhere to be found on the entire thread (because it was deleted shortly after 8:24 AM).
This 39-year-old New Orleans woman tested for coronavirus. She died before getting her results. - ( New Window )
This 39-year-old New Orleans woman tested for coronavirus. She died before getting her results. - ( New Window )
Just saw that earlier, very sad story
Because we haven't even close to bit the precipice of this thing. And at it's height you'll see a multude need of care of at least a few magnitudes greater
In comment 14845263 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
I understand that the mortality rate for COVID 19 is much higher than the flu, however the raw numbers are the raw numbers. 40 to 80 thousand Americans die from the flu every year and some multiple of that need critical care although they survive. How is it that the health system can deal with those numbers, but they can't deal with the much lower COVID 19 numbers ? This isn't a matter of testing , this is a matter of care. Why is the health system buckling due to these much lower COVID number than they are for seasonal flu ?
Because we haven't even close to bit the precipice of this thing. And at it's height you'll see a multude need of care of at least a few magnitudes greater
Of what we know about the corona virus and the hope that scientists have of stopping this demon ....
https://www.latimes.com/ddlrvqhgdpk-123
Quote:
In comment 14845263 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
I understand that the mortality rate for COVID 19 is much higher than the flu, however the raw numbers are the raw numbers. 40 to 80 thousand Americans die from the flu every year and some multiple of that need critical care although they survive. How is it that the health system can deal with those numbers, but they can't deal with the much lower COVID 19 numbers ? This isn't a matter of testing , this is a matter of care. Why is the health system buckling due to these much lower COVID number than they are for seasonal flu ?
Because we haven't even close to bit the precipice of this thing. And at it's height you'll see a multude need of care of at least a few magnitudes greater
I get that, but from what I read the New York hospitals are already short of protective gear and respirators. How can they be that unprepared ? How do they get through a normal flu season ?
The normal flu season doesn't require the doctors and nurses to wear masks because they've all had flu shots and won't catch it (or be seriously compromised if they do). This is completely different because they will catch it and will be seriously compromised if they do. The normal flu season also doesn't require a lot of ventilators patient percentage-wise, whereas this does.
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In comment 14845263 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
I understand that the mortality rate for COVID 19 is mu
Because we haven't even close to bit the precipice of this thing. And at it's height you'll see a multude need of care of at least a few magnitudes greater
I get that, but from what I read the New York hospitals are already short of protective gear and respirators. How can they be that unprepared ? How do they get through a normal flu season ?
They already know an idea when of how many they need and buy reasonable surplus for that plus a tragedy.
Is it a CDC certification problem?
I've been following the updates, to day was the first day anybody mentioned over-seas sources. What's going on; I KNOW the politicians are inept, but come on !
Because she took a flu test prior to the COVID-19 test that came back negative.
I presume the China catastrophe severely strained the disposable PPE chain. Increased demand, coupled with interruption of the supply chain, put a crimp in the system.
From this, I would guess domestic stock dipped. Then, panic buying over the last month depleted much of these supplies. In a rational world, there should be a mandated minimal warehouse supply which precludes selling to the public. I've no idea if this is a thing.
The modern model of business is to have minimal inventory on hand, trusting in the supply chain to remain constant. Industry simply couldn't ramp up fast enough. the inventory didn't have enough reserve built in.
Just a guess. It does seem strange that we are stretched so thin and the pandemic is barely underway
No worries, it's buried deep in the article.
The Wise, the Experienced, the Stupid.
That seems to be the immediate norm in China. Most businesses are back up and running but the fear still lingers and the citizens are still coming out in plastic suits and masks disinfecting everything. I dont believe China only saw 3k deaths, multiple sources (from China) have said they saw deaths in the hundreds of thousands. Italy with a much smaller population and much earlier in the process has passed their death count, its an obvious lie..
( but maybe 10% chance of ventilators needed), I would sign up for that
Yes 1/2 the population doesn’t get it at same time and I understand hospitals being overwhelmed
It’s just that a good majority of us are coming out ok
Financially? Could be a good time for dollar cost averaging next few yrs
It’s Russia, so 2 possible reasons
1) Puttin runs the country, so he’s not leaking anything.
2) Russia geographically being in such a cold region, could be slowing down the virus.
I highly doubt it’s #2
Because they probably have something to do with it. It also surprises me China doesn’t have more cases given that’s where it started and the size of their population.
I believe they will do anything to identify the disease and literally kill whoever has it. Their economy must be close to tilt with their dependency on oil...
But, no. You can't believe a syllable. They are pathological liars.
It does look like we've seen a sharp increase in testing. That's good news.
And per Cuomo, NY is doing more testing per capita than China & South Korea.
324 deaths +68 new deaths from yesterday
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Does anyone actually believe they have none?
I believe they will do anything to identify the disease and literally kill whoever has it. Their economy must be close to tilt with their dependency on oil...
But, no. You can't believe a syllable. They are pathological liars.
Can't disagree at all
I'm with you there SF
324 deaths +68 new deaths from yesterday
As long as the denominator accelerates for:
1. The # of people tested, so the % of people who have contracted the virus decreases...
2. The # of people who have contracted the virus, so the death rate % decreases...
than those will be positive trends, IMV.
We are outpacing Italy now.
I agree sounds like bull. No way Italy surpassed them this fast after China has had it for months.
[url=https://deanblundell.com/news/15-million-people-in-china-suddenly-dropped-their-cell-service-last-month-just-saying/]15 million people in china dropped their cell service last month[url]
We are going to suffer because it is hitting us last. By the time we are the epicenter, it’s quite possible that our doctors and medical staffs are going be depleted to the point where more people will die because the medical care will be that poor.
We are already running out of supplies. We haven’t even gotten to the peak yet and they are critically low on supplies.
@alessabocchi
·
Mar 20
Many have asked why Italy has a higher death rate from Covid19 (7.9%) compared to other countries (3.4% global average). It's not because the population is "older", as many speculate. Japan has a higher median age than Italy, and Japan's peak death rate was 3.6%. The reasons are:
@alessabocchi
·
Mar 20
1) Italy is also measuring deaths co-caused by the coronavirus. Most other countries only register deaths exclusively caused by the virus. China, Germany and South Korea, for example, do not measure deaths of people with pre-existing conditions as deaths from Covid19.
@alessabocchi
·
Mar 20
2) Italy's healthcare system is at a breaking point in its wealthiest regions. Triage causes more deaths. Even in China's wealthy Hubei province, the most affected, China overall had more resources as the virus affected around 4% of its population (58 million/1.4 billion people).
maybe this is wishful thinking but the day italy's deaths level off and their curve starts bending will be a very big day. If they continue at their current pace, they are about a week from having a single day with as many fatalities as 9/11.
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They just said they went 3 days without anyone testing positive for the virus. Right...
I agree sounds like bull. No way Italy surpassed them this fast after China has had it for months.
[url=https://deanblundell.com/news/15-million-people-in-china-suddenly-dropped-their-cell-service-last-month-just-saying/]15 million people in china dropped their cell service last month[url]
I’m not sure that guy is a credible source of info.
2. Article with potential timeline from Bill Gates:
Bill Gates Says Virus Shutdowns Could Last Up to 10 Weeks - ( New Window )
They see this as an opportunity and don’t care about the short term or the global good.
It’s getting really scary with Russia and China ... once we get past this. And we will
The us stats don’t concern me or Italy’s. South Korea has me
Concerned.
Mid May can’t get here fast enough. Wish we could all take a two month nap.
According to WHO Russia is doing very well.
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Does anyone actually believe they have none?
According to WHO Russia is doing very well.
Russian doctors have claimed that the government is masking COVID-19 deaths by classifying them as pneumonia deaths, which have spiked. It is highly unlikely in a country their size that they are doing as well as their reported numbers indicate.
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Does anyone actually believe they have none?
According to WHO Russia is doing very well.
Or... Russia has told the WHO they are doing very well.
Most people don't want to show up on any lists for any reason.
Second, outside of Moscow at 12.5 Million people, St Petersburg at 5.5M people and Novosibirsk at 1.5M they only have about 12 other cities with populations over 800,000.
And all of them are widely disbursed.
Next, they have an easy time with compliance with regulations to not travel.
They have a decent health system at the top edge but everything else is based on lines and lines of red tape
Will this stop things? No, it will slow them down.
The border with China and Mongolia and Siberia is pretty porous and there are many Chinese that live in parts of Siberia.
Id worry about Vladivostok as an entry. A port city close to NK and China and long a typical 3rd world port city. A mess. Big smuggling port for all kinds of stuff.
But one thing is certain, the actual core Russian people are not soft and have put up with tons of hardships, obstacles and deprivation. If you gave each family 12 potatoes for the week, they would find a way. ( six potatoes go into the homemade vodka (its a great source of sugars) and 5 for the youngest kids and one for grandma).
Just bone tough. That's a country whose people can hunkerdown
One of the things I learned from reading his comments, was a link to an article written in a journal called Nature.
The article shows the results of a detailed study by 3 Chinese scientists following SARS and MERS. Their research was published on October 30, 2013 and widely available and public for years.
Their study involves bats and SADLY predicts what apparently happened.
I have attached the Nature article.
Link - ( New Window )
Yup. Just practice social distancing. I'd go stir crazy if I was locked indoors all day.
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get outside in the sun. don't sit in the house and mope. go breath the fresh air, get the sun, which helps the body produce vitamin D which in turn helps the body fight disease. staying indoors will make it worse.
Yup. Just practice social distancing. I'd go stir crazy if I was locked indoors all day.
I'll be in the backyard cutting out new flower bed, picking up down tree limbs from the woods and cutting them up for the firepit. Working from my basement do to the NY shutdown, so getting out (and away from the wife) is crucial.
You have to get outside. The house will make you crazy and it’s completely safe to do so, just don’t be on top of others.
Its pretty clear some countries are playing some games with the data and health reporting metrics (Russia, Germany, China of course). India just doesn't have the infrastucture.
Agree with the sentiment of getting outside even if in pseudo-isolation walk around your neighborhood (heck even going out at night in evening air for me was helpful).
It's going to be like this for a few weeks, so might as well trial out some routines to shake things up a bit on your own terms where you can given constraints.
Maybe higher. Dr. Makary at J Hopkins previously estimated that there might 25 to 50 times the actual vs confirmed infections.
With the extremely high rate of positives coming in so rapidly, you need to give time for people to either recover or die.
We don’t have visibility to that right now.
We all hope the IFR is around 1%. But we can’t wish it into existence. And right now, we just don’t have the data to draw a conclusion in the US.
With the extremely high rate of positives coming in so rapidly, you need to give time for people to either recover or die.
We don’t have visibility to that right now.
We all hope the IFR is around 1%. But we can’t wish it into existence. And right now, we just don’t have the data to draw a conclusion in the US.
the positives are coming in a lot more because of a lot more testing..
a lot of those people getting tested are going right home with no symptoms..
I habe friends at morristown memorial, 95% of people have no symptoms get tested and go home..
Link - ( New Window )
One of the things I learned from reading his comments, was a link to an article written in a journal called Nature.
The article shows the results of a detailed study by 3 Chinese scientists following SARS and MERS. Their research was published on October 30, 2013 and widely available and public for years.
Their study involves bats and SADLY predicts what apparently happened.
I have attached the Nature article. Link - ( New Window )
thanks for sharing this article, v interesting
Quote:
Guys, for the love of god, you have to do Deaths/(Deaths+Recovered).
With the extremely high rate of positives coming in so rapidly, you need to give time for people to either recover or die.
We don’t have visibility to that right now.
We all hope the IFR is around 1%. But we can’t wish it into existence. And right now, we just don’t have the data to draw a conclusion in the US.
the positives are coming in a lot more because of a lot more testing..
a lot of those people getting tested are going right home with no symptoms..
I habe friends at morristown memorial, 95% of people have no symptoms get tested and go home..
You’re also making my point. In addition to what you said, China estimates almost 1/3 of people are asymptomatic entirely. Meaning we just have zero idea what the denominator is.
I’m debating how to accurately do math on mortality and portray the impact of an individual disease. In this case, claiming brand new cases as a positive denominator weight is idiotic.
We don’t have the data. It’s a pointless exercise right now. Our best experts and modeling say IFR is somewhere around 1%. The reported CFR is useless right now.
Quote:
get outside in the sun. don't sit in the house and mope. go breath the fresh air, get the sun, which helps the body produce vitamin D which in turn helps the body fight disease. staying indoors will make it worse.
Yup. Just practice social distancing. I'd go stir crazy if I was locked indoors all day.
Been on lock down for about two weeks ordered by oncologist.Basically since jan 3 transplant. Probably won't hit outdoors til july at this rate
With the extremely high rate of positives coming in so rapidly, you need to give time for people to either recover or die.
We don’t have visibility to that right now.
We all hope the IFR is around 1%. But we can’t wish it into existence. And right now, we just don’t have the data to draw a conclusion in the US.
Recover or die? Hope you’re not a Nets fan.
Spot on.
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In comment 14845588 Victor in CT said:
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get outside in the sun. don't sit in the house and mope. go breath the fresh air, get the sun, which helps the body produce vitamin D which in turn helps the body fight disease. staying indoors will make it worse.
Yup. Just practice social distancing. I'd go stir crazy if I was locked indoors all day.
I'll be in the backyard cutting out new flower bed, picking up down tree limbs from the woods and cutting them up for the firepit. Working from my basement do to the NY shutdown, so getting out (and away from the wife) is crucial.
Here in my corner of Michigan, it's sunny today, and we're going for a drive. I'll be taking my D750 along for some photo ops. If I have to get out to take a picture, it will be away from people.
This Site Tracks Death Doubling - ( New Window )
10 to 12 weeks?
Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters)-The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
10 to 12 weeks?
That timeline would seem to coincide with some of the drug trials they are doing now which supposedly take 2-3 months. Other than keeping the hospitals from losing capacity in the near term, that's the most important thing that can happen.
good luck keeping people in their homes for that long..
i expect many small businesses not to reopen when we get back to normal
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In comment 14845769 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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WASHINGTON (Reuters)-The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
10 to 12 weeks?
That timeline would seem to coincide with some of the drug trials they are doing now which supposedly take 2-3 months. Other than keeping the hospitals from losing capacity in the near term, that's the most important thing that can happen.
what is flooding the hospitals is the people with no symptoms going to the hospital and takong up beds..
Evwry time someone goes to the hospital, nurses and doctors have to put on masks, gowns and gloves, when they are done with a patient, they take it all off and change into new stuff...it is being completely wasted on people going to jospitals for no reason
Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters)-The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
10 to 12 weeks?
My feeling is that's probably optimistic. POTUS let slip July or August just last week. That means they are at least discussing it and whatever they are willing to say publicly is tempered by their strong desire to restart the economy.
Getting back to normal in April or May is a pipe dream when we haven't even hit the peak of this problem. I read somewhere that we're trailing Italy's situation by about 12 days.
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In comment 14845769 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters)-The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
10 to 12 weeks?
My feeling is that's probably optimistic. POTUS let slip July or August just last week. That means they are at least discussing it and whatever they are willing to say publicly is tempered by their strong desire to restart the economy.
Getting back to normal in April or May is a pipe dream when we haven't even hit the peak of this problem. I read somewhere that we're trailing Italy's situation by about 12 days.
july or august is a non-starter. 20% unemployment and an economic depression... not recession, depression.... would be worse than even a do nothing approach. not to mention quarantines usually just delay the inevitable.. that 50%+ of the population will get infected no matter what eventually.
Warmer temperatures cannot get here fast enough.
Another potential factor is "social usefulness," a concept that might favor, for example, a sick nurse because that person could go on to save other lives."
Source
And this from the hardest hit area of Italy ...
Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60
Hoping we can work together to avoid this!
He is so spot on with serological testing as it finally can begin the conversation about the ‘end game’ here. We can see a light at the end of the tunnel if we can ramp it up at scale.
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In early March, as the coronavirus outbreak worsened in Italy, an Italian medical association issued guidelines finding that doctors might have to prioritize younger COVID-19 patients over older ones. ... But age is rarely the only factor in such decision making. ... scoring systems can disadvantage older patients because as people age they become more susceptible to disease, which can hurt their clinical scores.
Another potential factor is "social usefulness," a concept that might favor, for example, a sick nurse because that person could go on to save other lives."
Source
And this from the hardest hit area of Italy ...
Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60
Hoping we can work together to avoid this!
What does any of this have to do with your title about US hospitals preparing guidelines on care?
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In comment 14845769 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters)-The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
10 to 12 weeks?
My feeling is that's probably optimistic. POTUS let slip July or August just last week. That means they are at least discussing it and whatever they are willing to say publicly is tempered by their strong desire to restart the economy.
Getting back to normal in April or May is a pipe dream when we haven't even hit the peak of this problem. I read somewhere that we're trailing Italy's situation by about 12 days.
no one knows when the peak is or if a peak is even coming..
The US and Italy had their first case i believe 2 days away from each other...
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In comment 14845773 nygiants16 said:
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In comment 14845769 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters)-The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
10 to 12 weeks?
My feeling is that's probably optimistic. POTUS let slip July or August just last week. That means they are at least discussing it and whatever they are willing to say publicly is tempered by their strong desire to restart the economy.
Getting back to normal in April or May is a pipe dream when we haven't even hit the peak of this problem. I read somewhere that we're trailing Italy's situation by about 12 days.
no one knows when the peak is or if a peak is even coming..
The US and Italy had their first case i believe 2 days away from each other...
I hope your optimism proves out, because I haven't seen anyone or any model suggest that we're at the peak or on the downhill of this.
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In comment 14845785 widmerseyebrow said:
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In comment 14845773 nygiants16 said:
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In comment 14845769 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters)-The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
10 to 12 weeks?
My feeling is that's probably optimistic. POTUS let slip July or August just last week. That means they are at least discussing it and whatever they are willing to say publicly is tempered by their strong desire to restart the economy.
Getting back to normal in April or May is a pipe dream when we haven't even hit the peak of this problem. I read somewhere that we're trailing Italy's situation by about 12 days.
no one knows when the peak is or if a peak is even coming..
The US and Italy had their first case i believe 2 days away from each other...
I hope your optimism proves out, because I haven't seen anyone or any model suggest that we're at the peak or on the downhill of this.
i am not sayiny we are or arent..
i will say if this originated in us we wouldnt be going nuts
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This is a chilling report from NPR ...
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In early March, as the coronavirus outbreak worsened in Italy, an Italian medical association issued guidelines finding that doctors might have to prioritize younger COVID-19 patients over older ones. ... But age is rarely the only factor in such decision making. ... scoring systems can disadvantage older patients because as people age they become more susceptible to disease, which can hurt their clinical scores.
Another potential factor is "social usefulness," a concept that might favor, for example, a sick nurse because that person could go on to save other lives."
Source
And this from the hardest hit area of Italy ...
Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60
Hoping we can work together to avoid this!
What does any of this have to do with your title about US hospitals preparing guidelines on care?
Read the NPR article. It is about US hospitals preparing to make these decisions. Sorry, I can see the quote I pulled was mainly from Italy.
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In comment 14845773 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14845769 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters)-The lockdown affecting large segments of the American public to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to last 10 to 12 weeks, or until early June, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.
10 to 12 weeks?
My feeling is that's probably optimistic. POTUS let slip July or August just last week. That means they are at least discussing it and whatever they are willing to say publicly is tempered by their strong desire to restart the economy.
Getting back to normal in April or May is a pipe dream when we haven't even hit the peak of this problem. I read somewhere that we're trailing Italy's situation by about 12 days.
july or august is a non-starter. 20% unemployment and an economic depression... not recession, depression.... would be worse than even a do nothing approach. not to mention quarantines usually just delay the inevitable.. that 50%+ of the population will get infected no matter what eventually.
Warmer temperatures cannot get here fast enough.
The do nothing approach is one that no one in the world is taking. The downside of "do nothing" is catastrophic and a dangerous guess at this point as herd immunity and reinfection are big question marks. The UK went that route and quickly changed course as reality set in.
Delaying the inevitable is precisely what the strategy is. You don't want your entire populace getting this virus all at once or your hospitals get slammed indefinitely. That affects ALL people in need of intensive or emergency care, not just symptomatic infections.
Most of these towns had previously banned single use bags so not sure how people will get their groceries.
I believe the entire state of NH has banned reusable bags.
We must start to get back to at least quasi-normal by mid May or we're looking at 20% unemployment, if not higher, and the worst economy since the 1930s.
There's only so many NBA games from the '90s I can watch...
75k beds needs 110k
13k icu needs 35k
6k ventilators needs 30k
40-80% of population will get this but we need to break the curve and we haven't done that yet. timeline will be 3-6-9-12 months, nobody knows, has spoken to Fauci/NIH/CDC, there just is no way to know the timeline. There is a point where it could spread so widely that testing is irrelevant, but we aren't there yet and mass testing could help return to normalcy quicker so he is still pushing for it.
Life will be disrupted and it will be a challenge but we will be better for it after - sort of a "this is our moment to rise up" and NY will lead the way. There will be no chaos, there will be no shortages, grocery stores will be open, we can get through this together. Thinks the fed gov can help but if they don't they have plans to move forward on their own.
It seems he's been honest, clear, straight forward, and non-alarmist. Answers all the questions. In a world of competing news/fake news/etc, he seems to be playing this as 'just the facts'.
History will be the real fact checker for all of this but trying to evaluate what to listen to in real time, he's making a strong impression.
I look at MDW as the optimistic target date for normalcy. And if we get there, it will be a helluva weekend celebrating the end of this craziness.
& if we're back to somewhat normal, oh man...that weekend is going to be like the impromptu high school party where somebody's folks are gone for the weekend, Haha.
& if we're back to somewhat normal, oh man...that weekend is going to be like the impromptu high school party where somebody's folks are gone for the weekend, Haha.
July 4th looks more likely.
Although I cannot imagine block parties in any event as I imagine the most vulnerable will still be forced to shelter in place.
I think the exact opposite. Once the 'Alright. We're back' message is out there, people are going to lose their S & get out there en masse.
Cuomo and his team have been such a contrast. He has given me confidence someone in government is competent in this.
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Is more realistic. There will be hesitation from many once they say we are good to start life again it will take time for people to feel comfortable
I think the exact opposite. Once the 'Alright. We're back' message is out there, people are going to lose their S & get out there en masse.
the hesitation will be from the leaders, we may to start see a drop in cases and deaths but we probably wont get the ok for awhile after that
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was an interview with the FEMA director. He was asked about PPE,mask etc. He said they were shipping those out. When asked how many...how many in stock etc. He kept saying I cant give you exact numbers. To Jake Tappers credit he said you know those kinds of answers dont exactly give people a lot of confidence that we have what we need. Instead of even responding to that he kept saying we need to "conserve" by not testing those with no symptoms. I can say I had less confidence after the interview.
Cuomo and his team have been such a contrast. He has given me confidence someone in government is competent in this.
Ive been impressed with Cuomo as well.
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In comment 14845872 GMEN46 said:
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Is more realistic. There will be hesitation from many once they say we are good to start life again it will take time for people to feel comfortable
I think the exact opposite. Once the 'Alright. We're back' message is out there, people are going to lose their S & get out there en masse.
the hesitation will be from the leaders, we may to start see a drop in cases and deaths but we probably wont get the ok for awhile after that
Would have to be 2 weeks after there transmission of COVID-19 has largely stopped for some kind of all clear to be given
We must start to get back to at least quasi-normal by mid May or we're looking at 20% unemployment, if not higher, and the worst economy since the 1930s.
I don't disagree about the economic impact. This will be devastating. It frightens me that some of the greediest assholes in America voluntarily shut it down before any state or federal authorities ordered it.
100%. This is how we get to the light at the end of the tunnel. And can keep the economy running. We must scale this now!
no one knows when the peak is or if a peak is even coming..
The US and Italy had their first case i believe 2 days away from each other...
I hope your optimism proves out, because I haven't seen anyone or any model suggest that we're at the peak or on the downhill of this.
i am not sayiny we are or arent..
i will say if this originated in us we wouldnt be going nuts
your opinions are literally all batshit. holy crap. just so ridiculously uninformed. i've been trying not to say anything for a while but you just continue to pollute this thread with nonsense.
"i will say if this originated in us we wouldn't be going nuts" - jesus dude - that's some of the dumbest fucking shit i've heard this whole pandemic. congrats.
2. Develop Treatments
If testing gets so widely available we may be able to flip the quarantine rules to isolate those infected and lift some restrictions on those who aren't. In a place as densely populated as NYC that sounds impossible but Cuomo seems to think even there the genie isn't out of the bottle yet, and if that's the case I'd imagine it's still in the bottle most other places too.
If treatments advance rapidly in the next 2-3 months where they can at least be effective on the most serious cases that reduces the mortality risks.
This current quarantine will be as effective as we make it by using the time productively and not wasting it. They say what we see in results today is reflective of what happened 10-20 days prior. Most places have been quarantined for a week or so now, so in the next 2 weeks hopefully we see the curve start to slow down as a result.
And in the short term obviously fighting to increase capacity as much as possible for to prepare for any non-best case scenarios.
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In comment 14845815 widmerseyebrow said:
no one knows when the peak is or if a peak is even coming..
The US and Italy had their first case i believe 2 days away from each other...
I hope your optimism proves out, because I haven't seen anyone or any model suggest that we're at the peak or on the downhill of this.
i am not sayiny we are or arent..
i will say if this originated in us we wouldnt be going nuts
your opinions are literally all batshit. holy crap. just so ridiculously uninformed. i've been trying not to say anything for a while but you just continue to pollute this thread with nonsense.
"i will say if this originated in us we wouldn't be going nuts" - jesus dude - that's some of the dumbest fucking shit i've heard this whole pandemic. congrats.
If Italy never happened, or china never happened, you think we would be locking down states? seriously?
And if you dont like my opinion ignore me, nkthing i have said is crazy, i have nevwr said it is not serious, i have never said not to practice social distancing, i have never said who cares about the old people...And my opinion stands if this doesnt surge in a couple of weeks like people are predicting people are not just going to sit around..
and again you dont like my opinion do not respond to me, notice i never respond to you
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Is more realistic. There will be hesitation from many once they say we are good to start life again it will take time for people to feel comfortable
I think the exact opposite. Once the 'Alright. We're back' message is out there, people are going to lose their S & get out there en masse.
I think it will take a vaccine for people to feel safe again. There are indications that we will be playing green light, red light on a rolling basis at best maybe starting in Summer. And even then I think that's only so we don't collapse economically rather than being a sound health strategy. This thing is super contagious so it doesn't make sense from a health standpoint to just go back to mingling once it slows down. Especially in light of the fact that multiple countries are either unwilling or unable to be honest about their infections and deaths.
I look at MDW as the optimistic target date for normalcy. And if we get there, it will be a helluva weekend celebrating the end of this craziness.
i'm a bit skeptical of this because of all of the states currently doing very little social distancing. this will extend the timelines. i wouldn't say the possibility is zero, b/c there seems to be a chance there is at least some medical/therapeutic options by then - but i very much doubt it will be a "normal" mdw. would be nice tho
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I think the serological (sic?) testing would go a long way toward the difficult journey back to normal. I’d be comforted to know if my family has immunity to this or if they are still at risk.
100%. This is how we get to the light at the end of the tunnel. And can keep the economy running. We must scale this now!
What’s that quote again? Americans always do the right thing after they try everything else... Very glad the NYS Governor is already taking about this.
Hot spots are going to come and go around the country, with enough data the quarantines can be targeted.
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In comment 14845886 trueblueinpw said:
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I think the serological (sic?) testing would go a long way toward the difficult journey back to normal. I’d be comforted to know if my family has immunity to this or if they are still at risk.
100%. This is how we get to the light at the end of the tunnel. And can keep the economy running. We must scale this now!
What’s that quote again? Americans always do the right thing after they try everything else... Very glad the NYS Governor is already taking about this.
he also said he expects a peak in 45 days..
2. Develop Treatments
If testing gets so widely available we may be able to flip the quarantine rules to isolate those infected and lift some restrictions on those who aren't. In a place as densely populated as NYC that sounds impossible but Cuomo seems to think even there the genie isn't out of the bottle yet, and if that's the case I'd imagine it's still in the bottle most other places too.
If treatments advance rapidly in the next 2-3 months where they can at least be effective on the most serious cases that reduces the mortality risks.
This current quarantine will be as effective as we make it by using the time productively and not wasting it. They say what we see in results today is reflective of what happened 10-20 days prior. Most places have been quarantined for a week or so now, so in the next 2 weeks hopefully we see the curve start to slow down as a result.
And in the short term obviously fighting to increase capacity as much as possible for to prepare for any non-best case scenarios.
Add in serological testing and wide-scale production of temperature checking equipment (ie at the front of a house in a restaurant), and I think you’ve nailed it.
i am not sayiny we are or arent..
i will say if this originated in us we wouldnt be going nuts
your opinions are literally all batshit. holy crap. just so ridiculously uninformed. i've been trying not to say anything for a while but you just continue to pollute this thread with nonsense.
"i will say if this originated in us we wouldn't be going nuts" - jesus dude - that's some of the dumbest fucking shit i've heard this whole pandemic. congrats.
If Italy never happened, or china never happened, you think we would be locking down states? seriously?
And if you dont like my opinion ignore me, nkthing i have said is crazy, i have nevwr said it is not serious, i have never said not to practice social distancing, i have never said who cares about the old people...And my opinion stands if this doesnt surge in a couple of weeks like people are predicting people are not just going to sit around..
and again you dont like my opinion do not respond to me, notice i never respond to you
i'm responding to you precisely because of your opinions - i can't make that clearer. you litter this thread with a constant stream of nonsense.
Those days are over for now. Nature has struck back. As far as a vaccine, I hope so, but if one comes out in the time frames being put out, that would be one of the greatest scientific achievements in human history. Vaccines are tough to get right, they have been working on an HIV vaccine since the 80's. Vaccine would be great, but it is likely years away, at best. More hope would be in some of these treatments to help everyone through it until there is some immunity in the population.
The danger now is the rapid spread combined with double digit hospitalization rates that last a long time for many. It also would be helpful to drop the idea it only impacts the old. It is sending many younger people to the hospital as well. Not at the same rate, but many I encounter still view it mainly as a problem for the elderly.
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In comment 14845891 MM_in_NYC said:
i am not sayiny we are or arent..
i will say if this originated in us we wouldnt be going nuts
your opinions are literally all batshit. holy crap. just so ridiculously uninformed. i've been trying not to say anything for a while but you just continue to pollute this thread with nonsense.
"i will say if this originated in us we wouldn't be going nuts" - jesus dude - that's some of the dumbest fucking shit i've heard this whole pandemic. congrats.
If Italy never happened, or china never happened, you think we would be locking down states? seriously?
And if you dont like my opinion ignore me, nkthing i have said is crazy, i have nevwr said it is not serious, i have never said not to practice social distancing, i have never said who cares about the old people...And my opinion stands if this doesnt surge in a couple of weeks like people are predicting people are not just going to sit around..
and again you dont like my opinion do not respond to me, notice i never respond to you
i'm responding to you precisely because of your opinions - i can't make that clearer. you litter this thread with a constant stream of nonsense.
what nonsense have i said? because i said if it doesnt surge in the next couple of weeks people are not going to sit around? that is nonsense? that is truth, you cant shut down a country for 4 weeks let alone 4 months...the economic damage this vauses will be worse than the virus...
because i dont say 2 million people are going to die my opinion is nonsense? guess what i am not the only person saying that
One of the things I learned from reading his comments, was a link to an article written in a journal called Nature.
The article shows the results of a detailed study by 3 Chinese scientists following SARS and MERS. Their research was published on October 30, 2013 and widely available and public for years.
Their study involves bats and SADLY predicts what apparently happened.
I have attached the Nature article. Link - ( New Window )
I have no idea what they are saying, can you break that down in a layman's summary?
Those days are over for now. Nature has struck back. As far as a vaccine, I hope so, but if one comes out in the time frames being put out, that would be one of the greatest scientific achievements in human history. Vaccines are tough to get right, they have been working on an HIV vaccine since the 80's. Vaccine would be great, but it is likely years away, at best. More hope would be in some of these treatments to help everyone through it until there is some immunity in the population.
The danger now is the rapid spread combined with double digit hospitalization rates that last a long time for many. It also would be helpful to drop the idea it only impacts the old. It is sending many younger people to the hospital as well. Not at the same rate, but many I encounter still view it mainly as a problem for the elderly.
There are numerous reasons why an HIV vaccine is more difficult to achieve which I won’t get into. Suffice to say, this is nowhere near as difficult. We will have a vaccine in 2021.
Thanks for asking, that’s very kind of you. I think I’m getting better, still very fatigued but no fever at all, cough seems to be abating. I’m still not right, but I’m not getting worse and I think I may be getting better. Biggest worry by far now is my family. Figure I’ll make it, but very worried about them. Wish I could get test result, got text today that results still not available. Hoping for the best!
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How you feeling BTW? I know you said you were under the weather on Friday.
Thanks for asking, that’s very kind of you. I think I’m getting better, still very fatigued but no fever at all, cough seems to be abating. I’m still not right, but I’m not getting worse and I think I may be getting better. Biggest worry by far now is my family. Figure I’ll make it, but very worried about them. Wish I could get test result, got text today that results still not available. Hoping for the best!
Happy to hear there’s progress. Hope it keeps improving.
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by the name of Robert Kruse who is on Twitter and who specializes in this area. He has posted interesting information about the virus.
One of the things I learned from reading his comments, was a link to an article written in a journal called Nature.
The article shows the results of a detailed study by 3 Chinese scientists following SARS and MERS. Their research was published on October 30, 2013 and widely available and public for years.
Their study involves bats and SADLY predicts what apparently happened.
I have attached the Nature article. Link - ( New Window )
I have no idea what they are saying, can you break that down in a layman's summary?
the very (VERY) oversimplified explanation is diseases that do transfer over from animals to humans are usually not that bad because they don't attack humans in ways that humans are vulnerable too - this was attacks the ace2 receptor that we are very susceptible to. that makes it very unique.
your opinions are literally all batshit. holy crap. just so ridiculously uninformed. i've been trying not to say anything for a while but you just continue to pollute this thread with nonsense.
"i will say if this originated in us we wouldn't be going nuts" - jesus dude - that's some of the dumbest fucking shit i've heard this whole pandemic. congrats.
If Italy never happened, or china never happened, you think we would be locking down states? seriously?
And if you dont like my opinion ignore me, nkthing i have said is crazy, i have nevwr said it is not serious, i have never said not to practice social distancing, i have never said who cares about the old people...And my opinion stands if this doesnt surge in a couple of weeks like people are predicting people are not just going to sit around..
and again you dont like my opinion do not respond to me, notice i never respond to you
i'm responding to you precisely because of your opinions - i can't make that clearer. you litter this thread with a constant stream of nonsense.
what nonsense have i said? because i said if it doesnt surge in the next couple of weeks people are not going to sit around? that is nonsense? that is truth, you cant shut down a country for 4 weeks let alone 4 months...the economic damage this vauses will be worse than the virus...
because i dont say 2 million people are going to die my opinion is nonsense? guess what i am not the only person saying that
you couldn't prove my point better. i quoted your last nugget of nonsense in my post. you literally can't keep track of something from two posts ago. i can already see your response to this post... and it's bad.
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In comment 14845915 MM_in_NYC said:
your opinions are literally all batshit. holy crap. just so ridiculously uninformed. i've been trying not to say anything for a while but you just continue to pollute this thread with nonsense.
"i will say if this originated in us we wouldn't be going nuts" - jesus dude - that's some of the dumbest fucking shit i've heard this whole pandemic. congrats.
If Italy never happened, or china never happened, you think we would be locking down states? seriously?
And if you dont like my opinion ignore me, nkthing i have said is crazy, i have nevwr said it is not serious, i have never said not to practice social distancing, i have never said who cares about the old people...And my opinion stands if this doesnt surge in a couple of weeks like people are predicting people are not just going to sit around..
and again you dont like my opinion do not respond to me, notice i never respond to you
i'm responding to you precisely because of your opinions - i can't make that clearer. you litter this thread with a constant stream of nonsense.
what nonsense have i said? because i said if it doesnt surge in the next couple of weeks people are not going to sit around? that is nonsense? that is truth, you cant shut down a country for 4 weeks let alone 4 months...the economic damage this vauses will be worse than the virus...
because i dont say 2 million people are going to die my opinion is nonsense? guess what i am not the only person saying that
you couldn't prove my point better. i quoted your last nugget of nonsense in my post. you literally can't keep track of something from two posts ago. i can already see your response to this post... and it's bad.
dude respectfully leave me alone, you dont like my opinion ignore me...
you still havent answered me on what i have said that is so crazy...you are the same guy who attacked me because i said i cant afford to close my business...
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Will we have a normal Memorial Day Weekend where the beaches are packed and families are grilling?
I look at MDW as the optimistic target date for normalcy. And if we get there, it will be a helluva weekend celebrating the end of this craziness.
i'm a bit skeptical of this because of all of the states currently doing very little social distancing. this will extend the timelines. i wouldn't say the possibility is zero, b/c there seems to be a chance there is at least some medical/therapeutic options by then - but i very much doubt it will be a "normal" mdw. would be nice tho
What does little social distancing have to do with. That is just gonna extend the time period we are all dealing with this. That would a why there is the argument to say fuck it and get rid of this as soon as possible
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In comment 14845857 Sean said:
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Will we have a normal Memorial Day Weekend where the beaches are packed and families are grilling?
I look at MDW as the optimistic target date for normalcy. And if we get there, it will be a helluva weekend celebrating the end of this craziness.
i'm a bit skeptical of this because of all of the states currently doing very little social distancing. this will extend the timelines. i wouldn't say the possibility is zero, b/c there seems to be a chance there is at least some medical/therapeutic options by then - but i very much doubt it will be a "normal" mdw. would be nice tho
What does little social distancing have to do with. That is just gonna extend the time period we are all dealing with this. That would a why there is the argument to say fuck it and get rid of this as soon as possible
I’m with you on the economic fears, as you know. This isn’t sustainable beyond three months. However, we need the time to catch up. We are nowhere near caught up right now (again: full body thermometer production, serological testing, clear and adhered to capacity guidance, scaled swab testing). That’s why we need all manufacturing companies in the country to action immediately through federal response efforts.
you couldn't prove my point better. i quoted your last nugget of nonsense in my post. you literally can't keep track of something from two posts ago. i can already see your response to this post... and it's bad.
dude respectfully leave me alone, you dont like my opinion ignore me...
you still havent answered me on what i have said that is so crazy...you are the same guy who attacked me because i said i cant afford to close my business...
lol, i told you to find your local and state small business services and see what assistance offerings they have.... my guess is you still haven't. you should.
and maybe this is your first time on the internet but when post shit expect to get called out on it. if you don't like that then you can "respectfully leave".
Hot spots are going to come and go around the country, with enough data the quarantines can be targeted.
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This along with the anti-body test that is going to be cheap and easy to administer and should be along soon.
Hot spots are going to come and go around the country, with enough data the quarantines can be targeted.
An anti-body test isn't going to tell you shit for something this widespread. You're going to get false positives all over the place. Anyone who was exposed but has natural immunity will test positive, anyone who had it and recovered will test positively.
You are just wrong and ALL experts in the field disagree with you. Simply NOT up for any kind of debate.
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This along with the anti-body test that is going to be cheap and easy to administer and should be along soon.
Hot spots are going to come and go around the country, with enough data the quarantines can be targeted.
An anti-body test isn't going to tell you shit for something this widespread. You're going to get false positives all over the place. Anyone who was exposed but has natural immunity will test positive, anyone who had it and recovered will test positively.
That’s exactly the point, which you’re clearly missing. We want to know who is immune. And a normal amount of false positives (5%) is entirely acceptable at the total population level.
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In comment 14845937 MM_in_NYC said:
you couldn't prove my point better. i quoted your last nugget of nonsense in my post. you literally can't keep track of something from two posts ago. i can already see your response to this post... and it's bad.
dude respectfully leave me alone, you dont like my opinion ignore me...
you still havent answered me on what i have said that is so crazy...you are the same guy who attacked me because i said i cant afford to close my business...
lol, i told you to find your local and state small business services and see what assistance offerings they have.... my guess is you still haven't. you should.
and maybe this is your first time on the internet but when post shit expect to get called out on it. if you don't like that then you can "respectfully leave".
so actually debate me and dont call me out personally like a child who reads something he doesnt like..
Like i said before what have i said that is so ill informed? just because i dont agree with the mass hysteria doesnt make me ill informed...you think i am going out and not caring?
Will we have a normal Memorial Day Weekend where the beaches are packed and families are grilling?
I look at MDW as the optimistic target date for normalcy. And if we get there, it will be a helluva weekend celebrating the end of this craziness.
i'm a bit skeptical of this because of all of the states currently doing very little social distancing. this will extend the timelines. i wouldn't say the possibility is zero, b/c there seems to be a chance there is at least some medical/therapeutic options by then - but i very much doubt it will be a "normal" mdw. would be nice tho
What does little social distancing have to do with. That is just gonna extend the time period we are all dealing with this. That would a why there is the argument to say fuck it and get rid of this as soon as possible
there are a number of core concepts you're not getting. the key one, for now, is that without social distancing everyone doesn't just get the virus at once. it still has a natural progression. the natural progression of that spread across the entire united states population would have effects going through mdw. that would effect the normalcy of the mdw. and since many places aren't doing very much social distancing right now, that is exactly what is happeneing there - and then the virus will bounce back to places it already hit and get new people.
but alas maybe i'm not understanding your point. are you saying mdw will be normal?
There's only so many NBA games from the '90s I can watch...
You're not interested in watching Tom Brady day on ESPN today?
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In comment 14845906 GiantEgo said:
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This along with the anti-body test that is going to be cheap and easy to administer and should be along soon.
Hot spots are going to come and go around the country, with enough data the quarantines can be targeted.
An anti-body test isn't going to tell you shit for something this widespread. You're going to get false positives all over the place. Anyone who was exposed but has natural immunity will test positive, anyone who had it and recovered will test positively.
That’s exactly the point, which you’re clearly missing. We want to know who is immune. And a normal amount of false positives (5%) is entirely acceptable at the total population level.
There is a case for both. I am pretty sure I am just speaking facts, so don't bash me too much.
Those arguing to just let it go and it will be over sooner and that the lockdowns are too high an economic price may be correct. But, what a price of life and risk in that who knows what happens if the virus is allowed to run buck wild in a city like NY.
Would any policy maker be able to justify images and stories of triage at hospitals? Of healthcare workers getting sick at such a high level? Would the public support a plan to punt away the lives/health of those most at risk to save the economy?
All tough questions, this is complex stuff, seems to be an appropriate balance is needed. What that looks like is the question. Better testing would allow for a clearer picture of where lockdowns night be needed to avoid healthcare system collpase, as opposed to the whole state/nation type things happening now. But, flying blind on who actually has it limits options.
I do think that right now there should be plans of how to appropriately exit the lockdowns when it is time and that a future, more targeted type of lockdown plans are ready for the future so they can be applied surgically which should mitiagte damage to the economy. It is a tough nut to crack. I do think it is not possible and maybe unethical to just let it burn out. That is why you see the actions being taken all over the US now to shut things down.
There is a case for both. I am pretty sure I am just speaking facts, so don't bash me too much.
i think your explanation is right just the math is off. i understand the mortality rate to be significantly less with mitigation efforts leading to a flattened curve b/c of hospital care, therapeutic development, etc.
I’m with you on the economic fears, as you know. This isn’t sustainable beyond three months. However, we need the time to catch up. We are nowhere near caught up right now (again: full body thermometer production, serological testing, clear and adhered to capacity guidance, scaled swab testing). That’s why we need all manufacturing companies in the country to action immediately through federal response efforts.
This I get. A month or two, ramp up production of what we need, whatever it takes. And then we need to go back to normal. I'm hoping what that assistance is for because it is woefully underfunded if we are talking longer than that. That doesn't include that we will all need to pay this back overtime, and lost productivity is lost productivity and spending. And there will probably be a bonanza of entertainment spending for a month, but that will go back to normal because people will feel terrified financially moving forward.
dude respectfully leave me alone, you dont like my opinion ignore me...
you still havent answered me on what i have said that is so crazy...you are the same guy who attacked me because i said i cant afford to close my business...
lol, i told you to find your local and state small business services and see what assistance offerings they have.... my guess is you still haven't. you should.
and maybe this is your first time on the internet but when post shit expect to get called out on it. if you don't like that then you can "respectfully leave".
so actually debate me and dont call me out personally like a child who reads something he doesnt like..
Like i said before what have i said that is so ill informed? just because i dont agree with the mass hysteria doesnt make me ill informed...you think i am going out and not caring?
you said, "if this originated in us we wouldn't be going nuts" - there's no point debating that. it stands alone.
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In comment 14845601 YANKEE28 said:
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by the name of Robert Kruse who is on Twitter and who specializes in this area. He has posted interesting information about the virus.
One of the things I learned from reading his comments, was a link to an article written in a journal called Nature.
The article shows the results of a detailed study by 3 Chinese scientists following SARS and MERS. Their research was published on October 30, 2013 and widely available and public for years.
Their study involves bats and SADLY predicts what apparently happened.
I have attached the Nature article. Link - ( New Window )
I have no idea what they are saying, can you break that down in a layman's summary?
the very (VERY) oversimplified explanation is diseases that do transfer over from animals to humans are usually not that bad because they don't attack humans in ways that humans are vulnerable too - this was attacks the ace2 receptor that we are very susceptible to. that makes it very unique.
Thank you
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In comment 14845903 MM_in_NYC said:
there are a number of core concepts you're not getting. the key one, for now, is that without social distancing everyone doesn't just get the virus at once. it still has a natural progression. the natural progression of that spread across the entire united states population would have effects going through mdw. that would effect the normalcy of the mdw. and since many places aren't doing very much social distancing right now, that is exactly what is happeneing there - and then the virus will bounce back to places it already hit and get new people.
but alas maybe i'm not understanding your point. are you saying mdw will be normal?
The social distancing is just slowing down the rate we will get it. When the hospital system gets overrun, it gets overrun, and lengthening the natural progression will just lengthen the time it takes for the hospital system to get back to normal, which will affect all the people that need emergency care for that time period.
Threeofakind did bring up a good point, this pseudo quarantine gives us time to ramp up production of essential goods. If thats the plan I can see it, but lots of the stuff needed I'd imagine is created by skilled workers, there probably is only so much extra capacity they can handle.
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In comment 14845920 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14845601 YANKEE28 said:
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by the name of Robert Kruse who is on Twitter and who specializes in this area. He has posted interesting information about the virus.
One of the things I learned from reading his comments, was a link to an article written in a journal called Nature.
The article shows the results of a detailed study by 3 Chinese scientists following SARS and MERS. Their research was published on October 30, 2013 and widely available and public for years.
Their study involves bats and SADLY predicts what apparently happened.
I have attached the Nature article. Link - ( New Window )
I have no idea what they are saying, can you break that down in a layman's summary?
the very (VERY) oversimplified explanation is diseases that do transfer over from animals to humans are usually not that bad because they don't attack humans in ways that humans are vulnerable too - this was attacks the ace2 receptor that we are very susceptible to. that makes it very unique.
Thank you
this seems to be a good article for further reading on the problems with addressing ace2:
https://www.genengnews.com/news/two-promising-sars-cov-2-blocking-compounds-undergo-testing/
It doesn't have to be inevitable that it collapses, or the severity of the collapse can be reduced.
How much does the government run up the tab? What happens if another crisis hits concurrently?
Long term what is the plan moving forward. Is it smart to have cities that are so densely populated? How does that impact what is occurring today and how the government supports those areas? NY is extremely vulnerable here both today and in the future imo.
It seems the best hope is a form of treatment and that is why they are shutting things down. I imagine there is tremendous battles going in government as to when they turn it back on.
there are a number of core concepts you're not getting. the key one, for now, is that without social distancing everyone doesn't just get the virus at once. it still has a natural progression. the natural progression of that spread across the entire united states population would have effects going through mdw. that would effect the normalcy of the mdw. and since many places aren't doing very much social distancing right now, that is exactly what is happeneing there - and then the virus will bounce back to places it already hit and get new people.
but alas maybe i'm not understanding your point. are you saying mdw will be normal?
The social distancing is just slowing down the rate we will get it. When the hospital system gets overrun, it gets overrun, and lengthening the natural progression will just lengthen the time it takes for the hospital system to get back to normal, which will affect all the people that need emergency care for that time period.
Threeofakind did bring up a good point, this pseudo quarantine gives us time to ramp up production of essential goods. If thats the plan I can see it, but lots of the stuff needed I'd imagine is created by skilled workers, there probably is only so much extra capacity they can handle.
it's a fucked up situation, that's for sure. i certainly agree the current situation is not tenable for months. i'd really like to see a higher level of discourse in the public about creative solutions. everyone is waiting on congress and their package but talk about places i don't expect a lot from and that about is top of the list...
How much does the government run up the tab? What happens if another crisis hits concurrently?
Long term what is the plan moving forward. Is it smart to have cities that are so densely populated? How does that impact what is occurring today and how the government supports those areas? NY is extremely vulnerable here both today and in the future imo.
It seems the best hope is a form of treatment and that is why they are shutting things down. I imagine there is tremendous battles going in government as to when they turn it back on.
great point, LoS. it's incredible that common sense things like you just said are not being done. why that training is not happening is a fantastic question - and something that should be started today.
No political stuff, please.
No political stuff, please.
It is an inordinate amount of politicians and famous people in relation to the general public that are able to get tested.
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He has tested positive. There seems to be an inordinate amount of politicians and famous people in relation to the general public catching this
No political stuff, please.
It is an inordinate amount of politicians and famous people in relation to the general public that are able to get tested.
Plus I believe they aren't sitting at home like a lot of us, they are in Wash trying to pass all these funding bills. So they are getting more exposure, at least I think they are. Now what will happen, since he obviously has had a bunch of contact with House and Senate members
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He has tested positive. There seems to be an inordinate amount of politicians and famous people in relation to the general public catching this
No political stuff, please.
It is an inordinate amount of politicians and famous people in relation to the general public that are able to get tested.
Excellent point
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In comment 14846033 montanagiant said:
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He has tested positive. There seems to be an inordinate amount of politicians and famous people in relation to the general public catching this
No political stuff, please.
It is an inordinate amount of politicians and famous people in relation to the general public that are able to get tested.
Plus I believe they aren't sitting at home like a lot of us, they are in Wash trying to pass all these funding bills. So they are getting more exposure, at least I think they are. Now what will happen, since he obviously has had a bunch of contact with House and Senate members
You have those 2 congressmen also that tested positive, so I'm going to assume a bunch of them are going to test positive.
CiP makes a good point about the fact that they access to tests we the general public do not
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by the name of Robert Kruse who is on Twitter and who specializes in this area. He has posted interesting information about the virus.
One of the things I learned from reading his comments, was a link to an article written in a journal called Nature.
The article shows the results of a detailed study by 3 Chinese scientists following SARS and MERS. Their research was published on October 30, 2013 and widely available and public for years.
Their study involves bats and SADLY predicts what apparently happened.
I have attached the Nature article. Link - ( New Window )
I have no idea what they are saying, can you break that down in a layman's summary?
They studied the genetic diversity of coronaviruses in bats and found that certain viruses were present in great diversity, and that they attacked certain receptors upon inflection. These were likely candidates for transmission to humans and they issued a caution about that. This may very be what happened here, so the article is prescient.
That model does not work when the disaster is national in scope
But you have to stick with your model despite its limitations because otherwise you are trying to change horses midstream, which will lead to only a greater disaster.
My point? Quarantine and shutter in place has to be made by local and state officials. Feds should help out but only intervene when local officials are being irresponsible. IMO DeBlasio was irresponsible and engaged in political grandstanding about SNAP and other matters. But Cuomo is the one who should have overruled him —as he eventually did—not the Feds.
So, I have to disagree with those of you who are saying Feds should impose nation wide shelter in place. North Dakota has something like 3 cases, all of whom are quarantined. Why should they be sheltered? Sheltering is difficult to maintain and many places in rural states don’t have good WiFi, making it even harder to stay indoors.
State and local officials should get guidance from Feds but not orders—at least not yet.
If Italy never happened, or china never happened, you think we would be locking down states? seriously?
You're basically saying: "we would not be blocking down states if this virus wasn't nearly as bad as it is."
I have to hand it to you, that is true.
I have no problem with elected leaders getting tested. Not sure I agree with announcing the results.
No political stuff, please.
One, they are able to get tested. Two, they are generally in much more contact with people then the general public, travel much more, etc.
I have no problem with elected leaders getting tested. Not sure I agree with announcing the results.
i think we're trying to stay away from comments like this. because if someone were to say the same thing about trump everything would erupt.
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In comment 14845857 Sean said:
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Will we have a normal Memorial Day Weekend where the beaches are packed and families are grilling?
I look at MDW as the optimistic target date for normalcy. And if we get there, it will be a helluva weekend celebrating the end of this craziness.
i'm a bit skeptical of this because of all of the states currently doing very little social distancing. this will extend the timelines. i wouldn't say the possibility is zero, b/c there seems to be a chance there is at least some medical/therapeutic options by then - but i very much doubt it will be a "normal" mdw. would be nice tho
What does little social distancing have to do with. That is just gonna extend the time period we are all dealing with this. That would a why there is the argument to say fuck it and get rid of this as soon as possible
Flaws in this logic. 1) even if you have the same number of people infected, you can greatly reduced the burden on the health care system (and deaths) by spreading it out. 2) buying time can also allow systems such as contract tracing and new supplies and equipment, saving lives, 3) combining different ways of reducing contacts can reduce the reproductive rate of the virus to a level it cannot sustain Itself, and it dies off. The idea is to stop the thing without natural herd immunity. Herd immunity as a public health practice works when you think of vaccines because the herd immunity doesn’t come at the cost of millions of infections and deaths. That type of herd immunity is called doing nothing, and I don’t think anyone is Seriously advocating that.
I have no problem with elected leaders getting tested. Not sure I agree with announcing the results.
Outside of a pandemic, what foreseeable consequence would you a preposterous abundance of masks, gowns, respirators, etc month after month.
Governments, and people in general need to be scared straight before they spring into action, its hard to prepare for every remote possibility in life, and would economically unfeasible to do so. There's more homeless than there ever been, the opiod epidemic is killing swathes of people due to mostly economic uncertainties, those things were already here and little was being done to take care of them.
Although we have been told for years this was an inevitability, history has told us its happening eventually, and its practically impossible to stop unless wherever it originates acts fast, and swiftly. We are too global to stop it after it gets out of ground zero of the epidemic. Once it leaves the cat is out of the bag.
because i dont say 2 million people are going to die my opinion is nonsense? guess what i am not the only person saying that
Here's the rub: if the death toll is far below some of the worst projections, is that an indication that every measure was an overreaction? Or does it simply signify that the measures were effective?
In a less-deaths-than-predcited scenario, we won't know the answer to the second question. And those inclined to dismiss it all as an overreaction will feel vindicated.
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In comment 14845903 MM_in_NYC said:
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In comment 14845857 Sean said:
Flaws in this logic. 1) even if you have the same number of people infected, you can greatly reduced the burden on the health care system (and deaths) by spreading it out. 2) buying time can also allow systems such as contract tracing and new supplies and equipment, saving lives, 3) combining different ways of reducing contacts can reduce the reproductive rate of the virus to a level it cannot sustain Itself, and it dies off. The idea is to stop the thing without natural herd immunity. Herd immunity as a public health practice works when you think of vaccines because the herd immunity doesn’t come at the cost of millions of infections and deaths. That type of herd immunity is called doing nothing, and I don’t think anyone is Seriously advocating that.
I think there is a huge flaw in your logic, once the healthcare system is overwhelmed, its overwhelmed for a longer period of time because you are just spreading out the timeframe longer.
And I think this idea is stemming from your third point. That reducing contacts will reduced the reproductive rate of the virus until it can't sustain itself. That I have a massive issue with, we are still having contact with each other, its going to spread and we have no natural immunity to it. Why will it just die off? It only dies off once a certain amount of people had it, and then the cases start to reduce because it can't be passed from person to person if you already have been in contact with it and builty an immunity. Flattening the curve doesn't reduce the amount of cases, just the amount of people that have it at one time. So yes you save lives, but the economic effect imo will be much more devastating for who knows how long.
I think there is a lot of messaging coming from up top all over the world that this is just going to go away so there isn't mass panic in the streets. I just heard the governor of Spain or whoever it is say something similar along those lines, which is clear bullshit.
Right and this a massive part of the problem. People are using up massive resources when essentially they wouldn't have if they had no idea what COVID 19 is. We have all had the flu, it fucking sucks, and it can feel like you are dying, but you know that its just the flu and you are going to be fine (if you are youngish), so we just go through it like the normal progressions. Many, many people aren't doing that because they are terrified. I think there needs to be better messaging that you should only be using up resources, if you are in the risk groups. Ask any healthcare professional, there is a massive, massive sect of the population that are just hypochondriacs.
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because i dont say 2 million people are going to die my opinion is nonsense? guess what i am not the only person saying that
Here's the rub: if the death toll is far below some of the worst projections, is that an indication that every measure was an overreaction? Or does it simply signify that the measures were effective?
In a less-deaths-than-predcited scenario, we won't know the answer to the second question. And those inclined to dismiss it all as an overreaction will feel vindicated.
If the death toll is significantly less than what the projection have, we massively underestimated the number of people that currently have it vs known deaths. Right now the prevailing thinking, and has been for a couple weeks, when accounting for people that likely haven't gotten tested , the mortality rate is around 1 percent and likely a bit lower. What we know about similar viruses, somewhere around 50 percent of people will get it. So that gives us a death toll of 1-2 million. Social distancing isn't going to reduce the amount of people that get it, not drastically at least, just the time period that people get it in.
I've never appreciated the outdoors more than these last couple of days.
Federal regulators, through the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are ordering lenders to offer homeowners flexibility. The move covers about half of all home loans in the U.S. — those guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie. But regulators expect that the entire mortgage industry will quickly adopt a similar policy.
Under the plan, people who have suffered a loss of income can qualify to make reduced payments or be granted a complete pause in payments.
New York Will Waive Mortgage Payments For 90 Days Based On Financial Hardship
THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
New York Will Waive Mortgage Payments For 90 Days Based On Financial Hardship
"That forbearance is up to 12 months, depending on their particular situation," says Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie and Freddie.
Homeowners can't just stop paying their mortgage. "They need to contact their servicer — that is the lender that they send the check to every month," he says. "That lender will work with them to be able to work out a payment plan. Obviously, we hope to get them back on their feet as soon as possible."
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EMTs while at doing my shift last night, one unit said they went to 14 jobs in 5 hours (Manhattan) all with people who displayed many of the signs of having it. From elderly to the young. They never seen anything like it
Right and this a massive part of the problem. People are using up massive resources when essentially they wouldn't have if they had no idea what COVID 19 is. We have all had the flu, it fucking sucks, and it can feel like you are dying, but you know that its just the flu and you are going to be fine (if you are youngish), so we just go through it like the normal progressions. Many, many people aren't doing that because they are terrified. I think there needs to be better messaging that you should only be using up resources, if you are in the risk groups. Ask any healthcare professional, there is a massive, massive sect of the population that are just hypochondriacs.
There are a lot of selfish morons out there.
The question obviously though is whether this reflects a doubling of the number infected or a doubling of the number identified as infected because of increased testing or is it somewhere in between
I've yet to see any difinitive statements as to whether weather will afftec COVID-19. There are suppositions that hot weather AND high humidity will impact but no one knows for certain.
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That typically flame out with warmer weather, does anyone know what temperatures are typically defined as warm weather for viruses?
I've yet to see any difinitive statements as to whether weather will afftec COVID-19. There are suppositions that hot weather AND high humidity will impact but no one knows for certain.
UV radiation would have more of an impact if I had to guess
This is definitely wrong man. You should try and relax - this sucks but its not the end of days!
It’s the easiest place in the world to stay 6 feet away from someone
Fuck you, fuck you, fuck you
Yes people will die
Yes we are losing money. A lot of it
Yes I may have to work longer because of this
Suicide? Fuck that. I ain’t happening here. I could lose everything. Unless I am near death I will move on and recover
This is not an extinction event here
10x worse than flu but cmon
It’s the easiest place in the world to stay 6 feet away from someone
Fuck you, fuck you, fuck you
Courses on Long Island are shut down but a few of them by me are quietly leaving the pins in to let people go out and play. Just use common sense and don’t touch the pins.
I walked 18 yesterday at a little 9 hole course by me, Gull Haven. Played it twice. I think I’m gonna try to do that a few times a week while this is going on.
My uncle just went to the hospital because he thinks he has it and has shortness of breath.
They are putting him in self quarantine and will not have the results of his tests for 5 days.
This is all in Miami. My uncle is in his early 60s.
If that’s an accurate range US-wide, I think it’s an interesting marker to see the impact on the hospitals. Right now 32,000 confirmed cases would translate into 4,000 hospitalizations. Doesn’t seem to be a big number yet ... but if swells to 50,000 in the next week or so, things will get tight. Especially because the seasonal flu is still causing major problems.
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We are seeing that doubling talked about earlier in the thread
The question obviously though is whether this reflects a doubling of the number infected or a doubling of the number identified as infected because of increased testing or is it somewhere in between
I don't think the raise in infections matter much, we all knew it would due to more testing. Hell a lot of people likely have this thing. The questions are 1) what % have it bad enough to go to the hospital, and 2) what % die. If all we are doing is finding more that have it, but not many are dying, then the mortality rate keeps dropping and that is a good sign
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In comment 14846066 montanagiant said:
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We are seeing that doubling talked about earlier in the thread
The question obviously though is whether this reflects a doubling of the number infected or a doubling of the number identified as infected because of increased testing or is it somewhere in between
I don't think the raise in infections matter much, we all knew it would due to more testing. Hell a lot of people likely have this thing. The questions are 1) what % have it bad enough to go to the hospital, and 2) what % die. If all we are doing is finding more that have it, but not many are dying, then the mortality rate keeps dropping and that is a good sign
Exactly.
We have no choice. Temperature scans in all open public spaces, mass scale swab testing, serological testing. This will require the feds taking a much bigger role and forcing manufacturing to align with these long-term goals. Everyone must do their part to help us get to this end game and that includes, for now, sheltering in place to enable us to get there without overloading the system too much.
At the end of this period, we will need to open up shop to those who test negative or prove immune with strict measures in place in public spaces (eateries, places of work). Collective social responsibility will be imperative.
I believe we are up to the challenge.
i'd like to see federal commissions established to identify key issues to expect and potential solutions. i want this taken out of the hands of politicians as much as possible.
i'd also like a rule for all news outlets that once you report something as breaking news you are no longer to call it breaking news and flash break news banners anytime you want to talk about it again. once you break news you can't keep rebreaking it. so fucking annoying.
It’s the easiest place in the world to stay 6 feet away from someone
Fuck you, fuck you, fuck you
Really?
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It’s the easiest place in the world to stay 6 feet away from someone
Fuck you, fuck you, fuck you
right, until you sneeze into your hand and then grab the flag.
Sorry man... it is more than just staying 6 feet away from someone
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is getting a lot of praise on here but truthfully I think he should of had NYC better prepared. It is not unreasonable to think that the most populated, dense city already hit by the worst terrorist attack and always will be a target would have medical supplies stored in abundance?
I have no problem with elected leaders getting tested. Not sure I agree with announcing the results.
Outside of a pandemic, what foreseeable consequence would you a preposterous abundance of masks, gowns, respirators, etc month after month.
Governments, and people in general need to be scared straight before they spring into action, its hard to prepare for every remote possibility in life, and would economically unfeasible to do so. There's more homeless than there ever been, the opiod epidemic is killing swathes of people due to mostly economic uncertainties, those things were already here and little was being done to take care of them.
Although we have been told for years this was an inevitability, history has told us its happening eventually, and its practically impossible to stop unless wherever it originates acts fast, and swiftly. We are too global to stop it after it gets out of ground zero of the epidemic. Once it leaves the cat is out of the bag.
Federally, we spend a massive amount of money to prevent military losses. A fraction of that could have gone to having surplus masks, etc., or prioritizing vaccines for coronaviruses (which were predicted to just get worse, by some). No blame here, or politics, but pointing out that it's not impossible to allocate resources for public health in a way we do for military preparedness.
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It will take at least 10 years to recover economically.
This is definitely wrong man. You should try and relax - this sucks but its not the end of days!
The reasoning it wouldn't take 10 years and recover much, much quicker is this isn't an economic issue. It's a health issue. And once you get the health issue under control - the economy should start turning again in six months or so.
However, I think there would be a point of diminishing returns, that if the economy stalls for a very long period it could take a more difficult period of time to get it up and running again near full speed.
Tons of variables of course, but that's the simple example I heard.
A friend of the family in Austin was diagnosed on Friday. She is a healthcare worker and picked it up at work. She said it is much worse than the flu and her whole body aches. She has shortness of breath and digestive issues.
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very interesting. nice that they post their models so you can review yourself their assumptions.
Always appreciate your posts.
Can you expand on the benefits?
Alarming...
I'd imagine there should be better preparedness for the next time, more people taking flu shots seriously (and experts in general), building up national stockpiles, etc. Hopefully some positive policy changes too. What else you got?
A friend of the family in Austin was diagnosed on Friday. She is a healthcare worker and picked it up at work. She said it is much worse than the flu and her whole body aches. She has shortness of breath and digestive issues.
Best wishes and prayers to her and her family.
Probably a greater emphasis on regional or local economic links as well.
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In comment 14845943 Zeke's Alibi said:
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In comment 14845903 MM_in_NYC said:
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In comment 14845857 Sean said:
Flaws in this logic. 1) even if you have the same number of people infected, you can greatly reduced the burden on the health care system (and deaths) by spreading it out. 2) buying time can also allow systems such as contract tracing and new supplies and equipment, saving lives, 3) combining different ways of reducing contacts can reduce the reproductive rate of the virus to a level it cannot sustain Itself, and it dies off. The idea is to stop the thing without natural herd immunity. Herd immunity as a public health practice works when you think of vaccines because the herd immunity doesn’t come at the cost of millions of infections and deaths. That type of herd immunity is called doing nothing, and I don’t think anyone is Seriously advocating that.
I think there is a huge flaw in your logic, once the healthcare system is overwhelmed, its overwhelmed for a longer period of time because you are just spreading out the timeframe longer.
And I think this idea is stemming from your third point. That reducing contacts will reduced the reproductive rate of the virus until it can't sustain itself. That I have a massive issue with, we are still having contact with each other, its going to spread and we have no natural immunity to it. Why will it just die off? It only dies off once a certain amount of people had it, and then the cases start to reduce because it can't be passed from person to person if you already have been in contact with it and builty an immunity. Flattening the curve doesn't reduce the amount of cases, just the amount of people that have it at one time. So yes you save lives, but the economic effect imo will be much more devastating for who knows how long.
I think there is a lot of messaging coming from up top all over the world that this is just going to go away so there isn't mass panic in the streets. I just heard the governor of Spain or whoever it is say something similar along those lines, which is clear bullshit.
The point is not to overwhelm the health system so that far fewer people needlessly die. We need something like shelter in place to wipe this thing out while keeping the health system intact. There are no public health experts anywhere advocating letting nature take its course.
As someone who has spent a lot of time on the study of existential risk, I’m hopeful, although skeptical, that we will see investment in other related spaces in the future. Could be another opportunity.
You can choose a highly risky strategy (let it runs its course) where if you succeed you gain a lot (economic strength), but there is an incredible amount of variability in outcomes.
A lower risk strategy (shelter in place) reduces the benefits from implementation (your economy likely goes into a recession), but there is a much reduced variability in outcomes.
Given that most people are risk averse or risk neutral, and given that most people who adopt risky strategies initially find it hard to follow through (lots of pressure to change), you see why "shelter in place" becomes the dominant strategy.
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Given how our educational system is going right now (mass home schooling), I can also see the potential for revamps to the K-12 school system that will benefit students (less teaching to tests or rigid lesson plans), such as a focus on critical thinking to explore novel situations, and maybe more home ec kinda classes.
As someone who has spent a lot of time on the study of existential risk, I’m hopeful, although skeptical, that we will see investment in other related spaces in the future. Could be another opportunity.
The chances aren't great that we adopt these, but if at any point we had some sort of impetus to put them in place, now is the time. Couldn't hurt to try these, at least.
Of course, it also demands that we have political leaders in place who aren't in it for personal power or wealth accumulation, but history will not look kindly on the past 50 years of "leaders".
great points in both posts - the education angle seems like a particularly game-changing moment. I've been observing pre-school via Zoom 3x per day in my living room. Never would have guessed 4 year olds could function so effectively in that type of setup. Plus dance class and music class. It's really not hard to envision a future with a more fragmented, customized, and efficient educational curriculum with some mix of group activities, sports, clubs, basic classes, and then virtual classes. Would think there's a way to have less overhead and improved quality of options since virtual can scale so easily.
This whole quarantine seems to accelerating our adoption of ready player one as a model for the future.
To that I say: not great Bob.
Did he say today that the US is not on the same track as Italy?
I'm actually doing it with another printing company that approached me with the idea, but they couldn't print them right away. So we ended up splitting the cost on material and I'm basically donating my weekend to get it done(which is fine), but I'm really starting to think it won't matter. Freaking sucks.
The point is not to overwhelm the health system so that far fewer people needlessly die. We need something like shelter in place to wipe this thing out while keeping the health system intact. There are no public health experts anywhere advocating letting nature take its course.
How many fewer? What about the untold devastation to millions and millions of people. Instability causes crime, war, death, homelessness, drug addiction, etc etc. I know kicker is the expert here, but if this goes on longer for a month or so I don't think people are really understanding the economic consequences of this just goes farther than closing businesses. People are going to be so extended that nobody is going to be spending money at all. And the ones that aren't probably going to be scared shitless to spend money on anything. Entertainment/Dining Out/Drinking spending creates a ton of jobs.
Kicker - I've been for stronger social safety nets forever, I'd consider myself a progressive Republican (I still believe in strong personal responsibility which seems to be lost on many among the movement) because there are a ton of people that have lost out on this tremendous growth. The Income Inequality in this country is nauseating and has created a ton of problems that people are acting like don't exist. I mean our average life expectancy has dropped, am I the only one that finds that completely unacceptable? It isn't just drugs, but subsidies the keeps people unbelievable unhealthy (and a large reason this pandemic is much worse than it should be).
My question to you now is how are we going to implement these social safety nets that we supposedly couldn't afford before now with even larger deficits that dwarf what we were doing and a crushed economy? It seems like I'm going to be an old man before we dig out of this whole completely if we decide to just shut it down for an extended period of time.
Rallies, you mean? Completely tone deaf, and short on useful info.
JFC. THIS IS A UNITED STATE SENATOR, A DOCTOR NO LESS. THE STUPIDITY & SHEER SELFISHNESS...
Again, I'd be screaming @ this if this was someone on the other side of the aisle. How can someone be THIS dumb?
JFC. THIS IS A UNITED STATE SENATOR, A DOCTOR NO LESS. THE STUPIDITY & SHEER SELFISHNESS...
Again, I'd be screaming @ this if this was someone on the other side of the aisle. How can someone be THIS dumb?
It’s borne more from sheer arrogance really. Which helps breed the stupidity, callousness.
JFC. THIS IS A UNITED STATE SENATOR, A DOCTOR NO LESS. THE STUPIDITY & SHEER SELFISHNESS...
Again, I'd be screaming @ this if this was someone on the other side of the aisle. How can someone be THIS dumb?
It’s a complete disgrace. There’s nothing else to say.
Between the daily pep rallies that are short on useful information outside Fauci and Birx, the bipartisan group of senators who dumped stocks based on inside information, the failure to protect American workers in the rescue bill, and now the news about Dr. Rand Paul’s behavior, it’s really no wonder we are in this fucking mess, is it?
You can choose a highly risky strategy (let it runs its course) where if you succeed you gain a lot (economic strength), but there is an incredible amount of variability in outcomes.
A lower risk strategy (shelter in place) reduces the benefits from implementation (your economy likely goes into a recession), but there is a much reduced variability in outcomes.
Given that most people are risk averse or risk neutral, and given that most people who adopt risky strategies initially find it hard to follow through (lots of pressure to change), you see why "shelter in place" becomes the dominant strategy.
Yeah we saw that in England. Winston Churchill's don't get elected anymore unfortunately. Not saying its the right move, but can you imagine any world leaders today acting with the type of resolve it would take if that were the right move? As hospitals are overrunning, people are dying because they can't get medical care, the political pressure would be enormous and you'd be pictured as the bad guy 100 percent for the foreseeable future and would be career suicide.
Federally, we spend a massive amount of money to prevent military losses. A fraction of that could have gone to having surplus masks, etc., or prioritizing vaccines for coronaviruses (which were predicted to just get worse, by some). No blame here, or politics, but pointing out that it's not impossible to allocate resources for public health in a way we do for military preparedness.
Oh trust me as a vet, I agree with you. Military spending is out of control and there is absolutely zero excuse to have a stockpile of cheap PPE. But the respirators and whatever other medical devices seems unfeasable.
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After interacting with two people who tested positive. In the meantime, he lunched with his colleagues on Friday & went to the gym this morning.
JFC. THIS IS A UNITED STATE SENATOR, A DOCTOR NO LESS. THE STUPIDITY & SHEER SELFISHNESS...
Again, I'd be screaming @ this if this was someone on the other side of the aisle. How can someone be THIS dumb?
It’s borne more from sheer arrogance really. Which helps breed the stupidity, callousness.
This is why I'm having trouble buying kicker's points that there will change for the better. These guys can't even close the gym when they've enacted an act that closed gyms nationwide.
At the end of this will be sold a package of goods, the capital rich companies will buy cheap, and the corporatism we have now will get much worse. In the short term it will get things going, but in the end the problems we had before, like fewer employers enabling them to negotiate lower wages (wage competition has been declining since the 70's since we started to let corporations call the shots), will be magnified.
Right except in this case having your glass half full and hoping for the best can have ridiculous long last consequences.
I'm an optimistic, positive guy by nature and generally look into the things I"ve learned from failure as positives, or try to gleam what positive I can take in from any shitty situation. But this is a completely different animal.
You make mistakes here and you may never get a chance to rectify it.
We may have to start thinking well beyond that. We could have a massive return of manufacturing to the US. Long term creating more blue collar jobs. Possibly making it acceptable NOT to go to college again. Potentially putting pressure on the cost of college tuition, etc. The possibilities are endless.
Honestly, you need to chill the fuck out.
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Given how our educational system is going right now (mass home schooling), I can also see the potential for revamps to the K-12 school system that will benefit students (less teaching to tests or rigid lesson plans), such as a focus on critical thinking to explore novel situations, and maybe more home ec kinda classes.
We may have to start thinking well beyond that. We could have a massive return of manufacturing to the US. Long term creating more blue collar jobs. Possibly making it acceptable NOT to go to college again. Potentially putting pressure on the cost of college tuition, etc. The possibilities are endless.
Trades and vocations, absolutely.
More broadly, there is a growing consensus that the supply chain is rapidly mechanizing, and so the reshoring may be good for blue collar workers who are underemployed currently; I don't see non-trades or vocations as being something we should necessarily funnel students to.
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isn't so much a pandemic as it is a plague at this point. It's endemic, and completely suffused into society. One way or another, it will kill millions in this country alone. Some will die from the disease, others from medical conditions for which they don't receive treatment. There will also likely be a massive increase in suicides from people who lose everything, whether business owners, people who are bankrupted because they cannot find a job, those whose retirement portfolios are annihilated by the declining stock market, or victims of the national epidemic of loneliness that is exacerbated by two to three months of social isolation. Crime will increase as people become desperate. There will also likely be several waves. There were three with the Spanish Flu IIRC. It will take at least 10 years to recover economically.
Honestly, you need to chill the fuck out.
I mean is he wrong? Projections are that 50 percent of people are going to get it regardless and it has a somewhere around a 1% mortality rate. I'm thinking its probably closer to .7%. . That is still a million people dead, and it looks why we are going to shut down the economy for 3 months plus. I don't know, the economic effects of that seem devastating to me, the deficits the government is going to run up are going to be astronomical. And they have no choice to as far as the support they are going to have to give the people if you are going to shut down things for months, many jobs not coming back.
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isn't so much a pandemic as it is a plague at this point. It's endemic, and completely suffused into society. One way or another, it will kill millions in this country alone. Some will die from the disease, others from medical conditions for which they don't receive treatment. There will also likely be a massive increase in suicides from people who lose everything, whether business owners, people who are bankrupted because they cannot find a job, those whose retirement portfolios are annihilated by the declining stock market, or victims of the national epidemic of loneliness that is exacerbated by two to three months of social isolation. Crime will increase as people become desperate. There will also likely be several waves. There were three with the Spanish Flu IIRC. It will take at least 10 years to recover economically.
Honestly, you need to chill the fuck out.
Seriously. Holy crap. And just think, we’ve only really been in “isolation” mode for around a week. Give it another week and Acid will certainly be jumping from a bridge. I feel sorry for his family having to deal with this panic mode he’s in. I hope he pulls himself together, for their sake
A worker at the Glenn Mills Costco in PA just came down with the Virus.
Trades and vocations, absolutely.
More broadly, there is a growing consensus that the supply chain is rapidly mechanizing, and so the reshoring may be good for blue collar workers who are underemployed currently; I don't see non-trades or vocations as being something we should necessarily funnel students to.
How I understand the mechanization movement is its going to take skilled trades, but in the end of the day mechanization happens because it reduces the overhead of people. You'll only need 1 person to do the job of 3 sort of thing. I agree with you we should pushing that, because those jobs are currently overseas anyway. The issue is going to be labor is going to be unbelievable cheap in many countries because of this. Do you force companies into this mechanization movement if it isn't financially beneficial due to the reduction in labor cost overseas, and possibly significantly so? Of course thats only in short term untill labor costs normalize, but this is America god dammit, we don't think ahead!
You can choose a highly risky strategy (let it runs its course) where if you succeed you gain a lot (economic strength), but there is an incredible amount of variability in outcomes.
A lower risk strategy (shelter in place) reduces the benefits from implementation (your economy likely goes into a recession), but there is a much reduced variability in outcomes.
Given that most people are risk averse or risk neutral, and given that most people who adopt risky strategies initially find it hard to follow through (lots of pressure to change), you see why "shelter in place" becomes the dominant strategy.
Excellent analysis.
A friend of the family in Austin was diagnosed on Friday. She is a healthcare worker and picked it up at work. She said it is much worse than the flu and her whole body aches. She has shortness of breath and digestive issues.
My wife had it. Your friends description is similar. My wife had absolutely terrible aches. The fever never got super high though. Annoying dry cough. She didn’t really have shortness of breathe. But she got a wicked head ache on the last day. Joints aches with body aches the whole time. Absolutely wiped out with lethargy. But we never hit the super scary mark. And when I finally forced her to sleep most of the day for a few days she finally started to get better.
I’m happy to say it now appears as if she’s finally beaten the virus and is basically back to normal. It was a scary couple of weeks but we kept a cool head.
The dept of health never returned our calls, the ER also never returned our calls, and my GP finally called back after almost two days. My GP confirmed what our family friend that is a physicians assistant in Raleigh had told us. That from all the symptoms and time line, my wife would be considered as having the virus without giving the actual test. And my doctors office gave us their triage number after they finally called us back. But they asked us not to call unless she took a turn for the worse. They said they were absolutely inundated and appreciated if we only call and use the testing center if she was in a bad way. And if she was they would test her and send her to in patient care.
Both our family friend and GP agreed that most likely me and my 19 month old son had it as well based on mild cold like symptoms we both had during that period. They said our bodies most likely were able to just process it and that was that. But they said they couldn’t be certain so don’t go around acting invincible and to remain quarantined as if we are still trying to avoid it. Which we are happy to oblige to. Anyone at this point that’s acting like a cowboy tough guy is really only hurting our chances of getting passed this quicker. So everyone please just do your part, be smart, be cautious, and let’s help get this passed us. Because if we don’t get back to work soon, the economy is going to make this virus look like a walk in the park.
My wife had it. Your friends description is similar.
Thanks for the description of what happened to her, yourself and your daughter. One more question for you...
Once you have it, can you get it again?
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My wife had it. Your friends description is similar.
Thanks for the description of what happened to her, yourself and your daughter. One more question for you...
Once you have it, can you get it again?
No problem. I don’t know about that answer. None of them addressed that in my discussion with them. There isn’t enough information out there at this point I would imagine to know the answer.
I have seen two different stories that say people that had it already have come down with it again. But I have no clue if those stories were true.
Crazy times.
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In comment 14846518 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
My wife had it. Your friends description is similar.
Thanks for the description of what happened to her, yourself and your daughter. One more question for you...
Once you have it, can you get it again?
No problem. I don’t know about that answer. None of them addressed that in my discussion with them. There isn’t enough information out there at this point I would imagine to know the answer.
I have seen two different stories that say people that had it already have come down with it again. But I have no clue if those stories were true.
From everything I have read the answer is no, you can't get it again. This is why they want the blood from people who have had it already, so they can give it to people who haven't. I've read that the reports of a few people getting it again were incorrect, in that it was due to faulty testing rather than a reemergence of the virus. In one example the person never really got rid of it, but the test was I guess incorrectly administered so they thought it was gone.
Crazy times.
Thanks, SFGF. Crazy times indeed.
I said this to my wife, she was sick, thry gave her antibiotics told her she had bronchitis it didnt go away with the first round of meds, went back to the doctor and they gave her more meds and finally went away...
Dry cough in her chest, slight fever, chills
Crazy times.
Agreed. Best wishes to everyone.
Quote:
had it back in late january and february and have recovered now
I said this to my wife, she was sick, thry gave her antibiotics told her she had bronchitis it didnt go away with the first round of meds, went back to the doctor and they gave her more meds and finally went away...
Dry cough in her chest, slight fever, chills
Best wishes to your wife.
Thankfully I didn't get sick or our daughter.
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In comment 14846535 CGiants07 said:
Quote:
had it back in late january and february and have recovered now
I said this to my wife, she was sick, thry gave her antibiotics told her she had bronchitis it didnt go away with the first round of meds, went back to the doctor and they gave her more meds and finally went away...
Dry cough in her chest, slight fever, chills
Best wishes to your wife.
Thanks, AT.
Thankfully I didn't get sick or our daughter.
both my kids had 103 fevers bsck to back after my wife got sick, doctors told us it was a virus and to give them motrin and they will be fine...both are good now, we didnt tbink anything crazy because both are kids are fever kids...my oldest once got a 105.9 fever from an ear infection when she was 3
Link - ( New Window )
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In comment 14846521 EricJ said:
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In comment 14846518 bradshaw44 said:
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My wife had it. Your friends description is similar.
Thanks for the description of what happened to her, yourself and your daughter. One more question for you...
Once you have it, can you get it again?
No problem. I don’t know about that answer. None of them addressed that in my discussion with them. There isn’t enough information out there at this point I would imagine to know the answer.
I have seen two different stories that say people that had it already have come down with it again. But I have no clue if those stories were true.
From everything I have read the answer is no, you can't get it again. This is why they want the blood from people who have had it already, so they can give it to people who haven't. I've read that the reports of a few people getting it again were incorrect, in that it was due to faulty testing rather than a reemergence of the virus. In one example the person never really got rid of it, but the test was I guess incorrectly administered so they thought it was gone.
Let me slightly modify what I said. Doctors expect that this will be the case, but they are waiting for more evidence to support this. It is expected because that is the way that other corona virus's work, and virus's in general. The official CDC statement is non-committal pending more data. I can post many articles but you can find them just as easily.
Thankfully I didn't get sick or our daughter.
Best wishes to everyone.
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I think my wife had the same back in early February. Fever & slight cough. She's 100% now, thank God.
Thankfully I didn't get sick or our daughter.
both my kids had 103 fevers bsck to back after my wife got sick, doctors told us it was a virus and to give them motrin and they will be fine...both are good now, we didnt tbink anything crazy because both are kids are fever kids...my oldest once got a 105.9 fever from an ear infection when she was 3
Best wishes to everyone.
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Best wishes to you & your wife on staying healthy.
Crazy times.
Thanks, SFGF. Crazy times indeed.
Glad to hear about your wife.
It looks like my 60 year old uncle has it. The test isn’t coming back for 5 days. Went to the Miami hospital today due to shortness of breath and he’s a real fit healthy 60 year old.
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In comment 14846532 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Best wishes to you & your wife on staying healthy.
Crazy times.
Thanks, SFGF. Crazy times indeed.
Glad to hear about your wife.
It looks like my 60 year old uncle has it. The test isn’t coming back for 5 days. Went to the Miami hospital today due to shortness of breath and he’s a real fit healthy 60 year old.
I hope he's OK.
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In comment 14846529 bradshaw44 said:
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In comment 14846521 EricJ said:
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In comment 14846518 bradshaw44 said:
Quote:
My wife had it. Your friends description is similar.
Thanks for the description of what happened to her, yourself and your daughter. One more question for you...
Once you have it, can you get it again?
No problem. I don’t know about that answer. None of them addressed that in my discussion with them. There isn’t enough information out there at this point I would imagine to know the answer.
I have seen two different stories that say people that had it already have come down with it again. But I have no clue if those stories were true.
From everything I have read the answer is no, you can't get it again. This is why they want the blood from people who have had it already, so they can give it to people who haven't. I've read that the reports of a few people getting it again were incorrect, in that it was due to faulty testing rather than a reemergence of the virus. In one example the person never really got rid of it, but the test was I guess incorrectly administered so they thought it was gone.
Let me slightly modify what I said. Doctors expect that this will be the case, but they are waiting for more evidence to support this. It is expected because that is the way that other corona virus's work, and virus's in general. The official CDC statement is non-committal pending more data. I can post many articles but you can find them just as easily.
I believe the stories we have heard are from false postitives......the person never had it, then actually did get it and accurately tested positive the second time.
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In comment 14846532 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Best wishes to you & your wife on staying healthy.
Crazy times.
Thanks, SFGF. Crazy times indeed.
Glad to hear about your wife.
It looks like my 60 year old uncle has it. The test isn’t coming back for 5 days. Went to the Miami hospital today due to shortness of breath and he’s a real fit healthy 60 year old.
I hope he’s ok bbds. If he’s fit that should hopefully help.
He's a relatively healthy guy, but his wife has MS. So his house is on eggshells right now...
He's a relatively healthy guy, but his wife has MS. So his house is on eggshells right now...
Good luck, man...
He's a relatively healthy guy, but his wife has MS. So his house is on eggshells right now...
Sorry to hear that bw
He's a relatively healthy guy, but his wife has MS. So his house is on eggshells right now...
Best of luck to your Cousin and his wife bw....
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In comment 14846532 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Best wishes to you & your wife on staying healthy.
Crazy times.
Thanks, SFGF. Crazy times indeed.
Glad to hear about your wife.
It looks like my 60 year old uncle has it. The test isn’t coming back for 5 days. Went to the Miami hospital today due to shortness of breath and he’s a real fit healthy 60 year old.
Best wishes to him BBDTS
My aunt has it sometime last week with the body aches, fatigue but no shortness of breath.
Just seems to have gotten worse and worse in each person that got it.
He's a relatively healthy guy, but his wife has MS. So his house is on eggshells right now...
This is terrifying. I hope everyone is ok. My wife has MS, Asthma and was in the hospital in February with Flu/Pneumonia. She is a RN but is not working at this point for the reasons above.
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or just has not disclosed it.
A friend of the family in Austin was diagnosed on Friday. She is a healthcare worker and picked it up at work. She said it is much worse than the flu and her whole body aches. She has shortness of breath and digestive issues.
My wife had it. Your friends description is similar. My wife had absolutely terrible aches. The fever never got super high though. Annoying dry cough. She didn’t really have shortness of breathe. But she got a wicked head ache on the last day. Joints aches with body aches the whole time. Absolutely wiped out with lethargy. But we never hit the super scary mark. And when I finally forced her to sleep most of the day for a few days she finally started to get better.
I’m happy to say it now appears as if she’s finally beaten the virus and is basically back to normal. It was a scary couple of weeks but we kept a cool head.
The dept of health never returned our calls, the ER also never returned our calls, and my GP finally called back after almost two days. My GP confirmed what our family friend that is a physicians assistant in Raleigh had told us. That from all the symptoms and time line, my wife would be considered as having the virus without giving the actual test. And my doctors office gave us their triage number after they finally called us back. But they asked us not to call unless she took a turn for the worse. They said they were absolutely inundated and appreciated if we only call and use the testing center if she was in a bad way. And if she was they would test her and send her to in patient care.
Both our family friend and GP agreed that most likely me and my 19 month old son had it as well based on mild cold like symptoms we both had during that period. They said our bodies most likely were able to just process it and that was that. But they said they couldn’t be certain so don’t go around acting invincible and to remain quarantined as if we are still trying to avoid it. Which we are happy to oblige to. Anyone at this point that’s acting like a cowboy tough guy is really only hurting our chances of getting passed this quicker. So everyone please just do your part, be smart, be cautious, and let’s help get this passed us. Because if we don’t get back to work soon, the economy is going to make this virus look like a walk in the park.
Bradshaw, this is very similar to what went on in my house in late January. My 12 year old daughter came down with a bad chest cold. Went to the doctor and they said because there was fluid on the left side of her lungs, they were treating it like a viral pneumonia. She got better fast. Maybe a week in total. Then my wife caught it and was down for the count. Very similar to what you’re detailing. But she had a high fever for her. I’ve never seen her with a fever over 102 since I’ve known her and her fever got to almost 103. Worst sick I’ve ever seen her. Went to the doctor and tested negative for the flu and they said it was viral and went to her lungs. Gave her Z Pack and steroids and an inhaler and it slowly got better. It took her almost 2 weeks. It actually came back for her the last week in February for a week with a brutal cough and a head cold but no fever. Me and my other daughter (15) had some slight symptoms for a day but it never materialized and we were fine.
I’m pretty confident we had it but who knows. It’s given me a little bit of calm thinking there’s a good chance we have gotten through it.
He told me the two worst groups in a fire are kids (they hide) and old people, the poke around with no sense of urgency to get out of the burning building.
Wednesday I was in the supermarket (frozen food - gone, meat - gone, canned food - gone, paper goods - gone) and noticed about 15-20 seniors poking around like they did not have a care in the world, reminded me of the fire story.
If you go on Twitter this morning, this seems like where we are headed.
I think the Governor of VA is going to cancel school for the rest of the year at a 2pm press conference this afternoon, which is pretty far from going back to normal.
someone posted yesterday a link that shows you models for how each state will be hit and when. check it out. very informative. but of course not absolute!
I expect medical experts to win out. But if you are going to close things down, you have to mean it and follow thru. Otherwise it is time wasted.
Here u go
Link - ( New Window )
NYC is the frontline here now, why should this be surprise?
Here in NYC there is a real risk of hospital overload. That is why bed capcity must be added, lockdowns must be in place and equipment constructed and sent as soon as possible. A wartime like mobilization and social change.
This is happening all over the country, but as better testing and data comes in, it stands to reason that there may not be a need for a national lockdown. Lockdowns can be lifted and reevaluated every two weeks or so.
Plans should be made now to do two things.
Prepare a gradual removal restrictions in places like NY when the cases (hopefully) slow. It is nuts to just go right back to full interaction.
Second, develop a screening procedure and protocol to assess where next medical system threatening breakouts could be and institute the lockdowns needed. This is a big country, as more is known is doesn't seem likely full out shutdown of the economy would be needed from sea to shining sea.
Making things worse now is everyone thought there was no community spread in the US due to no testing and still many areas flying blind on how severe it is. It is not good to find out there is a problem only when people are arriving at ER's in high numbers.
Right now NYC has a big problem. I still don't understand how this came as a surprise. You did not need a PhD to forsee the major threat to US metropolitan areas, particularly NYC, of this virus.
I hope you’re wrong but I don’t think so. There is an anti-intellectualism in the mistrust of expertise, and science more broadly. It is a general problem but really acute here where the science and public policy demand a clear response.
I don’t want to hear financial experts weigh in on how they need to get back to work, I want them to listen to the scientific experts about what needs to be done and then apply their needed expertise on how to mitigate the economic impact. Then I want the politicians to actually listen to what their experts are saying. Is that too much to ask?
Those who realy on commissions, tips, service, etc. might feel differently. Someone builds a business that is profitable. They lose it, what do they have to look forward to? Point is, one's circumstances may dictate how they feel about this economic standdown. We should respect that imo. No easy right or wrong as to the course taken.
But let's be proactive. People who lose their job. Screen, qualify name and get them into training where they get paid and have a job. Where is the plan for establishing rapid training teams? We are not going to train doctors from that pool but it seems we can get people who could serve in important health care support roles and be paid. Many people would step up to serve in a time of need. Over time, this shortage may be our biggest liability in determining the most favorable outcome with the numbers infected.
I think that's going to be a legit convo next week. I think all cards have to be on the table as to how to "marry" the two in best practices with respect to both. People need to stop lurching from one end to the other.
Those who realy on commissions, tips, service, etc. might feel differently. Someone builds a business that is profitable. They lose it, what do they have to look forward to? Point is, one's circumstances may dictate how they feel about this economic standdown. We should respect that imo. No easy right or wrong as to the course taken.
But let's be proactive. People who lose their job. Screen, qualify name and get them into training where they get paid and have a job. Where is the plan for establishing rapid training teams? We are not going to train doctors from that pool but it seems we can get people who could serve in important health care support roles and be paid. Many people would step up to serve in a time of need. Over time, this shortage may be our biggest liability in determining the most favorable outcome with the numbers infected.
Agreed. It is not a black and white economics vs. public health situation. The Great Depression resulted in a 25% increase in the suicide rate. The 2008 Financial crisis led to 10,000 plus suicides. There has to be a constant evaluation on the utilitarianism of voluntarily destroying our economy. While the extreme measures will certainly save lives, it will also cost other lives.
Except that they need to work hand in hand. They real question is what are the unforeseen consequences of shutting down things for an extended period of time. The health experts aren't thinking of that, they are generally more worried about what is happening in the here and now. Are they thinking about the millions that will be out of work, turn to drug addiction, crime, etc, etc.
It really is a delicate balance. I think once we have meds or some solve and in enough quantities to help everyone who needs it... then we will allow people to go back out again.
I was achy saturday w cold hands. I went to bed woke up around midnight freezing. Took my temp it was 99.6. I developed a slight cough w some thick phlegm in my chest. I also had a raw/hoarse feeling in my upper chest. I did a virtual visit Sunday morning and the doctor stated It’s most likely covid 19. He recommended testing. With Tylenol and mucinex DM I was able to control my symptoms. Late yesterday I experienced some stomach issues and lost my sense of taste and smell
This morning I went to get tested but was denied bc I didn’t present a fever (good news to me bc hopefully I’m on the mend). I’m isolated in my basement but I’m concerned for my family upstairs. They’re all stuffy w some aches and sore throats (they were exposed to strep throat this week)
The doctors nurses assistants janitors etc are working so hard for us. They’re doing most of this on the fly
I was achy saturday w cold hands. I went to bed woke up around midnight freezing. Took my temp it was 99.6. I developed a slight cough w some thick phlegm in my chest. I also had a raw/hoarse feeling in my upper chest. I did a virtual visit Sunday morning and the doctor stated It’s most likely covid 19. He recommended testing. With Tylenol and mucinex DM I was able to control my symptoms. Late yesterday I experienced some stomach issues and lost my sense of taste and smell
This morning I went to get tested but was denied bc I didn’t present a fever (good news to me bc hopefully I’m on the mend). I’m isolated in my basement but I’m concerned for my family upstairs. They’re all stuffy w some aches and sore throats (they were exposed to strep throat this week)
The doctors nurses assistants janitors etc are working so hard for us. They’re doing most of this on the fly
good luck with everything, random question, as a 1st responder had you been told about the taste and smell thing prior to the news reports coming out in the last few days? Or is that something that's only started raising flags through more anecdotal cases recently?
He spent the morning conferring with a broad range of local officials.
Also, COVID-19 hits TSA at the world's busiest airport.
COVID-19 at ATL airport and shelter-in-place - ( New Window )
I was achy saturday w cold hands. I went to bed woke up around midnight freezing. Took my temp it was 99.6. I developed a slight cough w some thick phlegm in my chest. I also had a raw/hoarse feeling in my upper chest. I did a virtual visit Sunday morning and the doctor stated It’s most likely covid 19. He recommended testing. With Tylenol and mucinex DM I was able to control my symptoms. Late yesterday I experienced some stomach issues and lost my sense of taste and smell
This morning I went to get tested but was denied bc I didn’t present a fever (good news to me bc hopefully I’m on the mend). I’m isolated in my basement but I’m concerned for my family upstairs. They’re all stuffy w some aches and sore throats (they were exposed to strep throat this week)
The doctors nurses assistants janitors etc are working so hard for us. They’re doing most of this on the fly
ty
pandemonium hits the super markets and liquor stores within 30 minutes of the announcement.
Ron, yup. I went for a nice 45 minute run yesterday & two long walks. Just be smart, practice social distancing. The day where people can't leave their homes-God forbid it get to that-is the day anarchy begins.
pandemonium hits the super markets and liquor stores within 30 minutes of the announcement.
I gotta imagine both super markets & liquor stores would remain open no?
pandemonium hits the super markets and liquor stores within 30 minutes of the announcement.
Is that for real? Does the lockdown include grocery stores? If so,seems insane and predictable that would be the result with such little warning.
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on state-wide lockdown starting tomorrow.
pandemonium hits the super markets and liquor stores within 30 minutes of the announcement.
I gotta imagine both super markets & liquor stores would remain open no?
I was wondering the same thing. Hasn’t Mass already been on lockdown? What’s different now?
You can't. People need food, medication, etc. My family does well, and I don't know that we have enough food for two weeks. I can't imagine those living paycheck to paycheck, waiting on unemployment, their next SS check, or the government relief.
I’m assuming I have it. I have too many symptoms of it to be just coincidence
but that doesn't stop the panic.
Mass had not been on lock down. restaurants and bars were closed for dining in, but quarantine was just a suggestion, the only guidelines were less than 25 people for gatherings until tomorrow.
many businesses had closed on their own.
Who said that?
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essential services
Who said that?
I saw that multiple places, forget exactly where, but the liquor stores are open.
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essential services
Who said that?
It's on the list of NY essential services
That was me. And I stand by that. American Revolution, 2.0.
I say it's fortunate because IMO it helps keep people indoors.
If we get some of those 70-degree spectacular March days I think you'll find less people heeding those social distancing and shelter in place requirements.
Should take us through this week at least (in MA) before getting any really nice weather.
Every single liquor store is open and those that I frequent say BUSINESS IS BOOMING
They better. A couple of people I know in New Gretna are going to go bonkers if they don't get their booze.
I say it's fortunate because IMO it helps keep people indoors.
If we get some of those 70-degree spectacular March days I think you'll find less people heeding those social distancing and shelter in place requirements.
Should take us through this week at least (in MA) before getting any really nice weather.
next week looks like high 60's all week in jersey
What does it mean? Folks are worried about the demand-side of the equation, not necessarily the supply-side. Consumers are going to be incredibly hard hit, and you have the dildos in charge dithering over things.
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so far in the Northeast is a semi-return of winter or at least seasonable weather. We may get snow tonight.
I say it's fortunate because IMO it helps keep people indoors.
If we get some of those 70-degree spectacular March days I think you'll find less people heeding those social distancing and shelter in place requirements.
Should take us through this week at least (in MA) before getting any really nice weather.
next week looks like high 60's all week in jersey
I haven't looked yet a next week, but if we can make it through this week it will help.
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per my cousin.
Every single liquor store is open and those that I frequent say BUSINESS IS BOOMING
Always does in dark times
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The day you shut down the liquor stores is when the riots start
That was me. And I stand by that. American Revolution, 2.0.
I concur!!
They are limited in their testing right now and both are on lockdown I believe. But both are going to be Petri dishes for this disease
He is in quarantine in his house until he gets results back, but he apparently has been dealing with some sort of sickness since the week of the super bowl that just hasn’t gotten better over time. Seems like it’s COVID, but until they get the test back they won’t know for sure.
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essential services
Who said that?
The governor.
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In comment 14846972 gidiefor said:
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essential services
Who said that?
The governor.
Is that a quote?
He is in quarantine in his house until he gets results back, but he apparently has been dealing with some sort of sickness since the week of the super bowl that just hasn’t gotten better over time. Seems like it’s COVID, but until they get the test back they won’t know for sure.
My old man got sick as a dog on NYE & wasn't really 100% until late January. I don't think he had COVID-19 since he never had a cough/trouble breathing, but it was something wicked. A really bad flu/cold season, along with this COVID-19 monster.
He says they must get a pass to go get groceries now and every grocery store has blocked off 1.5-meter squares that one person occupies while in the store
Aren't we all Leo here?
Link - ( New Window )
I know I'm doing my part in keeping Tanqueray in biz during this quarantine
I’m assuming I have it. I have too many symptoms of it to be just coincidence
To be fair, thats a pretty common symptom of colds and flus as well.
Will the rest of the country have the resolve to follow Washington State? And will the populace actually follow it? That’s the multi-trillion dollar question. At the risk of being preachy, I think we all owe a duty to our economically most vulnerable to try to lock down the spread so that things can re-open ASAP — spread the word to family and friends that it’s not ok to socialize.
Spain looks to be in equally rough shape. Also some small areas of Germany, Switzerland, France appear to be getting overwhelmed and are having to have help from their governments/EU to transfer and triage.
It's also worth to keep an eye on Turkey given proximity to Syria and the situation there. #s are slowly creeping up there.
Will the rest of the country have the resolve to follow Washington State? And will the populace actually follow it? That’s the multi-trillion dollar question. At the risk of being preachy, I think we all owe a duty to our economically most vulnerable to try to lock down the spread so that things can re-open ASAP — spread the word to family and friends that it’s not ok to socialize.
Link?
Supposedly of the reasons they keep the liquor stores open is many folks find alcohol necessary in times of crisis and stress, because it helps sedate folks (it also can conversely be a depressant, so too much, no bueno). Having it at home, will prevent them from going outside to congregate or find it (ie bars, so if you close down bars and restaurants, logical valve is where you get food (grocers) and alcohol (liquor stores).
They also don't want alcoholics (of which there are many) going involuntarily cold turkey, requiring police and emergency services and flooding clinics, ERs, hospitals for clinical treatment.
Trying to find it.
One issue is Washington reports daily on a delay (west coast), as right now, they are behind many states on the daily tracking so we need to see how they are on the week over week and 3 day tracking trend.
If they are leveling off that's good (they're about a week to ten days ahead of east coast folks in terms of implementation).
Unfortunately I suspect NYC/NJ in for a rough week to ten days...........before we can flatten.
US State by State Tracking - ( New Window )
SC to have a press conference this afternoon. I have a feeling we'll follow this too.
This is the second day that has seen a small decrease in cases and deaths.
Another 4,789 new cases have been diagnosed, bringing the total number of cases to 63,927.
Life in 2020. Good Lord.
The death rate in the USA is to be commended but how are we so poor at preventing the spread compared to other countries? Are we even bothering to track actual recoveries? Other countries seem to have no problems with it.
They are using tables and numbers based on probabilities, possibilities and known data. They are banking on working with what a normal healthcare need is.
Systems like this overload anytime there is a abnormal load put on it.
You can't plan your healthcare business for a pandemic because on normal non-pandemic days there would be space, doctors, nurses and equipment that wouldn't be needed.
Supposedly of the reasons they keep the liquor stores open is many folks find alcohol necessary in times of crisis and stress, because it helps sedate folks (it also can conversely be a depressant, so too much, no bueno). Having it at home, will prevent them from going outside to congregate or find it (ie bars, so if you close down bars and restaurants, logical valve is where you get food (grocers) and alcohol (liquor stores).
They also don't want alcoholics (of which there are many) going involuntarily cold turkey, requiring police and emergency services and flooding clinics, ERs, hospitals for clinical treatment.
Closed in PA, but beer distributors are open.
What does it mean? Folks are worried about the demand-side of the equation, not necessarily the supply-side. Consumers are going to be incredibly hard hit, and you have the dildos in charge dithering over things.
The demand side is a tough nut. There’s sizable pent up demand with no means to exercise. Not to diminish the real loss in economic contraction, but WTF are people going to spend on right now even if there is a stimulus?
That's good news. Should prevent a bunch of deaths.
To be fair, I did post on Friday from a buddy who works in DC that there was talk of a national shutdown. Obviously he either was FOS or he was told a rumor from someone else. I never really inquired.
Also, social media sucks. I'm not on Facebook, but do follow Twitter though I don't ever post.
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if true.
Trying to find it.
One issue is Washington reports daily on a delay (west coast), as right now, they are behind many states on the daily tracking so we need to see how they are on the week over week and 3 day tracking trend.
If they are leveling off that's good (they're about a week to ten days ahead of east coast folks in terms of implementation).
Unfortunately I suspect NYC/NJ in for a rough week to ten days...........before we can flatten. US State by State Tracking - ( New Window )
WSHA.org has a valuable daily tracker of testing, positive cases, and deaths. Nearly 29,000 people tested so far, with only a 6% positive rate. Also interesting that there have been zero deaths under the age of 40 in Washington State, and only six deaths in under the age of 60. And this is the state where the first confirmed case occurred 3 months ago.
Nate Silver/538/Covid Tracking Project also a valuable source — look at Silver’s tweets on 3/19 where you can see how the new positive cases have remained steady/no exponential increase despite heavy testing.
(Hoping this will link, not exactly sure how to do it)
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1240687371051393024
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1240687815219752962
I've got 2 college seniors and they're both pretty pissed about missing out on some stuff. Neither school has cancelled graduation yet, so that's good.
Thankfully my son quit baseball after his freshman year of college, otherwise I couldn't imagine not getting closure on that after having the season cancelled. At least he ended it on his own terms.
No - they're smarter than that and also know I wouldn't have let them back in the house had they done something so stupid.
To be fair, I did post on Friday from a buddy who works in DC that there was talk of a national shutdown. Obviously he either was FOS or he was told a rumor from someone else. I never really inquired.
Also, social media sucks. I'm not on Facebook, but do follow Twitter though I don't ever post.
I mean I'm sure plenty of people know someone in these industries. But the information they aren't getting is rarely good. The Navy has a term for it, scuttlebutt, and its generally always bullshit.
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People ignorant or just plain stupid or both. In my county in California we have as most shelter at home. Yet, igo to Costco and I see numerous families there. Shouldn’t the mom or dad stay at home with the kids and the other go shopping. I understand people getting cabin fever. However, going to Costco is not a place anyone needs to be unless you need to be there.
I don't see that it makes much difference. The Costco's Walmarts and Targets in California are the size of two or three football fields so there is room to spread out. You can't expect to have kids locked up in a house for weeks or months at a time.
Are you serious? Kids are little disease machines. Touch their mouth, then touch the shelves, carts, shit on the shelves. Anyone that shouldn't be at these places of large congregation shouldn't be going. Parents are just going to have to deal.
Meantime, my b-i-l the booze distributor has a written note from his employer to show cops or anyone else that he is exempt from any such order(??)
4800 new cases
600 new deaths
Below is an excellent Coronovirus tracker which I have updates quicker than the other ones out there
link - ( New Window )
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People ignorant or just plain stupid or both. In my county in California we have as most shelter at home. Yet, igo to Costco and I see numerous families there. Shouldn’t the mom or dad stay at home with the kids and the other go shopping. I understand people getting cabin fever. However, going to Costco is not a place anyone needs to be unless you need to be there.
I don't see that it makes much difference. The Costco's Walmarts and Targets in California are the size of two or three football fields so there is room to spread out. You can't expect to have kids locked up in a house for weeks or months at a time.
Ridiculous take. As mentioned, kids more likely to pick it up at the stores and by bringing an entire family of lets call it 5... you've just increased by 5x fold the risk that someone in the family will come down with it and infect the whole family.
unless you live in a condensced city apartment.. your kids are allowed to go outside or even on walks. Too fucking bad if theyre in a house for a while.
Anyway, i dont know what to make of the Washington state report... stabilization is good but if only 6% of the state is testing positive, that means we are building up very little immunity as a community to date.
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People ignorant or just plain stupid or both. In my county in California we have as most shelter at home. Yet, igo to Costco and I see numerous families there. Shouldn’t the mom or dad stay at home with the kids and the other go shopping. I understand people getting cabin fever. However, going to Costco is not a place anyone needs to be unless you need to be there.
I don't see that it makes much difference. The Costco's Walmarts and Targets in California are the size of two or three football fields so there is room to spread out. You can't expect to have kids locked up in a house for weeks or months at a time.
Kids don’t have to be locked up. They can go to a park,there backyard if they have one.
600 new deaths
Below is an excellent Coronovirus tracker which I have updates quicker than the other ones out there link - ( New Window )
Based on those numbers, it’s a 4% mortality rate. Geez.
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In comment 14847125 mitch300 said:
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People ignorant or just plain stupid or both. In my county in California we have as most shelter at home. Yet, igo to Costco and I see numerous families there. Shouldn’t the mom or dad stay at home with the kids and the other go shopping. I understand people getting cabin fever. However, going to Costco is not a place anyone needs to be unless you need to be there.
I don't see that it makes much difference. The Costco's Walmarts and Targets in California are the size of two or three football fields so there is room to spread out. You can't expect to have kids locked up in a house for weeks or months at a time.
Ridiculous take. As mentioned, kids more likely to pick it up at the stores and by bringing an entire family of lets call it 5... you've just increased by 5x fold the risk that someone in the family will come down with it and infect the whole family.
unless you live in a condensced city apartment.. your kids are allowed to go outside or even on walks. Too fucking bad if theyre in a house for a while.
Anyway, i dont know what to make of the Washington state report... stabilization is good but if only 6% of the state is testing positive, that means we are building up very little immunity as a community to date.
MAB, can you explain your thinking on that last point? (Just honestly don’t understand)
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a host of other liquidity measures. Stocks fell dramatically.
What does it mean? Folks are worried about the demand-side of the equation, not necessarily the supply-side. Consumers are going to be incredibly hard hit, and you have the dildos in charge dithering over things.
The demand side is a tough nut. There’s sizable pent up demand with no means to exercise. Not to diminish the real loss in economic contraction, but WTF are people going to spend on right now even if there is a stimulus?
You're right; demand-side policies are going to be ineffective at this point.
However, one of the reasons to enact them is that when we do escape from this, consumers (and businesses) will have drawn down savings and probably ramped up debt. Any policies to mitigate how much damage is done to the pocket books of small businesses and consumers will help us gain enough momentum to escape a recession quickly.
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In comment 14847125 mitch300 said:
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People ignorant or just plain stupid or both. In my county in California we have as most shelter at home. Yet, igo to Costco and I see numerous families there. Shouldn’t the mom or dad stay at home with the kids and the other go shopping. I understand people getting cabin fever. However, going to Costco is not a place anyone needs to be unless you need to be there.
I don't see that it makes much difference. The Costco's Walmarts and Targets in California are the size of two or three football fields so there is room to spread out. You can't expect to have kids locked up in a house for weeks or months at a time.
Are you serious? Kids are little disease machines. Touch their mouth, then touch the shelves, carts, shit on the shelves. Anyone that shouldn't be at these places of large congregation shouldn't be going. Parents are just going to have to deal.
Beyond that the chances of kids getting ill with COVID much less seriously ill are slim. If Costco is doing their job the shopping carts and shelves are being wiped down making transmission less likely.
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4800 new cases
600 new deaths
Below is an excellent Coronovirus tracker which I have updates quicker than the other ones out there link - ( New Window )
Based on those numbers, it’s a 4% mortality rate. Geez.
Yeah but the USA is only 1.2%. Italy is doing a terrible job and swaying the numbers heavily
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That would mean the first meaningful effects should start to show up at this time next week. If it is even half as effective as the French trial, it would be a big help.
That's good news. Should prevent a bunch of deaths.
Wait, so the states are running their own tests? This isn’t going through the NIH or other federal entity?
Yup and pay down some CC debt, which they can then rack back up after things subside.
2 serious recessions a decade apart could dramatically alter consumers' perceptions of savings.
2 serious recessions a decade apart could dramatically alter consumers' perceptions of savings.
A majority of people won’t learn and will be right back to where they were when the next recession hits.
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4800 new cases
600 new deaths
Below is an excellent Coronovirus tracker which I have updates quicker than the other ones out there link - ( New Window )
Based on those numbers, it’s a 4% mortality rate. Geez.
without understanding the demographics of the people being tested in the denominator, its a meaningless statistic.
What's most relevant is understanding the mortality rates by age bracket and underlying health conditions. I'm pretty sure, for example, that less than 1-2% of overall testing is being done on people under 20. Meanwhile that's at least 20% of your global population. So the testing is completely skewed to higher risk population, which makes sense.
Conversely, death lags by up to 3 weeks on the 'active cases'... plenty of 'moderate' active cases today will end up in ICU or worse. So.... we just have to see how this progresses and hope for gradual improvement across every age and health bracket over time.
But again, the 3.5-4.0% statistic is a completely meaningless stat. Its not granular enough.
Kids home all day. Parents needing to take care of the education responsibilities.
This is why the liquor stores remain open.
That's potentially over $100 billion lost annually. Then compound that growth.
This is going to get really scary.
What's stopping this from being as bad or worse than the great depression?
That's potentially over $100 billion lost annually. Then compound that growth.
You'd probably have a more accurate figure, but I saw a statistic that the cancellation of concerts, sporting events, theater and restaurant business decline has had an impact of $750B, just in the US
That doesn't count the Olympics or the events cancelled in the rest of the World. That's money that has been lost and won't be recovered.
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In comment 14847125 mitch300 said:
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People ignorant or just plain stupid or both. In my county in California we have as most shelter at home. Yet, igo to Costco and I see numerous families there. Shouldn’t the mom or dad stay at home with the kids and the other go shopping. I understand people getting cabin fever. However, going to Costco is not a place anyone needs to be unless you need to be there.
I don't see that it makes much difference. The Costco's Walmarts and Targets in California are the size of two or three football fields so there is room to spread out. You can't expect to have kids locked up in a house for weeks or months at a time.
Kids don’t have to be locked up. They can go to a park,there backyard if they have one.
Do not take them to a park. They are locked up here in Philly because they are germ infested and the kids don’t know if they have COVID-19 and are spreading between kids and or parents at the park.
This is seriously scary..
I work from home.. so I can take care of my teens
I feel for young single parents that have no one..
I can see bankruptcy getting bad.
They have already said the housing market is done..
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that is reliant for 70-percent of its GDP on consumer spending, and having 10-20 percent of consumers alter their spending habits. That's a non-negligible decline in growth. Potentially a decline of 0.5-0.8 percent in GDP.
That's potentially over $100 billion lost annually. Then compound that growth.
You'd probably have a more accurate figure, but I saw a statistic that the cancellation of concerts, sporting events, theater and restaurant business decline has had an impact of $750B, just in the US
That doesn't count the Olympics or the events cancelled in the rest of the World. That's money that has been lost and won't be recovered.
Oh, I agree with those numbers; I was talking about after a recession ends, if a small minority of consumers don't go back to their previous spending habits.
Those numbers are in ADDITION to lost GDP from this.
lololololololol
This is seriously scary..
I work from home.. so I can take care of my teens
I feel for young single parents that have no one..
I can see bankruptcy getting bad.
They have already said the housing market is done..
I have a question, how do you pay out all these deceased senior citizens life insurance policies? Feel like that will be on the horizon in a few weeks.
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No refunds.. waste of a concert season
This is seriously scary..
I work from home.. so I can take care of my teens
I feel for young single parents that have no one..
I can see bankruptcy getting bad.
They have already said the housing market is done..
I have a question, how do you pay out all these deceased senior citizens life insurance policies? Feel like that will be on the horizon in a few weeks.
How can they not refund for a concert they canceled?
I cannot even get my medications, because all the doctor canceled my new patient appointment, I moved to a new area. And the old doctor won't fill it..
Took 3 months to get that appointment with a specialist..
What do we do with all these kids.. they cannot stay home for weeks.
Least of my worries
In comment 14847217 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14847200 NJ_GIANTS said:
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No refunds.. waste of a concert season
This is seriously scary..
I work from home.. so I can take care of my teens
I feel for young single parents that have no one..
I can see bankruptcy getting bad.
They have already said the housing market is done..
I have a question, how do you pay out all these deceased senior citizens life insurance policies? Feel like that will be on the horizon in a few weeks.
How can they not refund for a concert they canceled?
Force Majeure. A party shall not be liable for any failure of or delay in the performance of this agreement for the period that such failure or delay is
beyond the reasonable control of a party,
materially affects the performance of any of its obligations under this agreement, and
could not reasonably have been foreseen or provided against, but
will not be excused for failure or delay resulting from only general economic conditions or other general market effects.
Least of my worries
In comment 14847217 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14847214 Rory said:
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In comment 14847200 NJ_GIANTS said:
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No refunds.. waste of a concert season
This is seriously scary..
I work from home.. so I can take care of my teens
I feel for young single parents that have no one..
I can see bankruptcy getting bad.
They have already said the housing market is done..
I have a question, how do you pay out all these deceased senior citizens life insurance policies? Feel like that will be on the horizon in a few weeks.
How can they not refund for a concert they canceled?
That sucks...They keep all the money and don't even have to pay the bands anything
Well we got that going for us
In comment 14847230 PatersonPlank said:
Well we got that going for us
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In comment 14847135 Ron from Ninerland said:
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In comment 14847125 mitch300 said:
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People ignorant or just plain stupid or both. In my county in California we have as most shelter at home. Yet, igo to Costco and I see numerous families there. Shouldn’t the mom or dad stay at home with the kids and the other go shopping. I understand people getting cabin fever. However, going to Costco is not a place anyone needs to be unless you need to be there.
I don't see that it makes much difference. The Costco's Walmarts and Targets in California are the size of two or three football fields so there is room to spread out. You can't expect to have kids locked up in a house for weeks or months at a time.
Did you ever try even keeping a sick kid inside ? Keeping kids locked up for months is not practical. Lets not forget the whole point of this exercise. A large segment of the population is going to get this at some point and people are going to die. The point of shelter in place is to "flatten the curve" so that the health system is not overwhelmed with critically ill patients all at once, but there are inevitably going to be ill patients. Eventually a large segment of the population is going to be exposed no matter what we do. The thought that this thing is just going to go away is fantasy. Its here and we have to deal with it, just like HIV, Zika and Flu.
Beyond that the chances of kids getting ill with COVID much less seriously ill are slim. If Costco is doing their job the shopping carts and shelves are being wiped down making transmission less likely.
I wouldn't call it close to a necessity to bring kids to essential services just because you don't want to deal with the headache. The grocery stores can't wipe down shelves and products, it's going to be a disease center, but people need to eat.
Way to many people have kids that shouldn't be having them is the issue. Having kids is a pain in the ass, but they are your pain in the ass. This is lost on so many people out there. Kids are unruly, but you see way to many that don't give a shit and let them infringe on other people's lives.
In comment 14847230 PatersonPlank said:
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basis for the first time.
Well we got that going for us
I haven't seen/heard that, do you have a link? Last I saw Wuhan had no new cases for 4 days now. I know other places in China (big country) are still working through it, but they are behind the Wuhan area
Again - we don't want to suspend anyone or take this thread down -- but some of you keep straying there.
Please don't.
Trials designed to be simple, sacrificing some characteristics, they are not double blind, but allowing for large scale data to come in.
Good read I thought. Hope something works.
Go Science! - ( New Window )
5 times as many people have this that aren’t being tested bc they don’t fit the criteria. I didn’t even get a flu test.
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In comment 14847141 Zeke's Alibi said:
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In comment 14847135 Ron from Ninerland said:
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In comment 14847125 mitch300 said:
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People ignorant or just plain stupid or both. In my county in California we have as most shelter at home. Yet, igo to Costco and I see numerous families there. Shouldn’t the mom or dad stay at home with the kids and the other go shopping. I understand people getting cabin fever. However, going to Costco is not a place anyone needs to be unless you need to be there.
I don't see that it makes much difference. The Costco's Walmarts and Targets in California are the size of two or three football fields so there is room to spread out. You can't expect to have kids locked up in a house for weeks or months at a time.
Did you ever try even keeping a sick kid inside ? Keeping kids locked up for months is not practical. Lets not forget the whole point of this exercise. A large segment of the population is going to get this at some point and people are going to die. The point of shelter in place is to "flatten the curve" so that the health system is not overwhelmed with critically ill patients all at once, but there are inevitably going to be ill patients. Eventually a large segment of the population is going to be exposed no matter what we do. The thought that this thing is just going to go away is fantasy. Its here and we have to deal with it, just like HIV, Zika and Flu.
Beyond that the chances of kids getting ill with COVID much less seriously ill are slim. If Costco is doing their job the shopping carts and shelves are being wiped down making transmission less likely.
I wouldn't call it close to a necessity to bring kids to essential services just because you don't want to deal with the headache. The grocery stores can't wipe down shelves and products, it's going to be a disease center, but people need to eat.
I have an older cousin with a seriously comprised immune system. She has to stay indoors and not have visitors. For the rest of us, we are making the best of the situation. My wife and I are home most of the time, but we go grocery shopping, we go out for take out and we walk our dogs. We don't have kids, but if we did we wouldn't let them out of our sight but we would do something to get them out of the house . Above all I would try to educate them about this crisis, what it is and what it isn't. I would do my best to assure them that we are not headed toward the land of the Walking Dead. Telling them that they are going to get sick and die from a trip to Walmart is doing just that.
You didn't get wrapped in bubble wrap - and you CONTRACTED the diseases!! All of them, apparently.
I don't think you are making the sense you think you are.
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When I was a kid in the early 60's, measles, mumps and scarlet fever were all around, especially New York City . I got hit with them all plus chicken pox. These diseases were a scourge against children much more than COVID is. And yet my parents and every other parent didn't wrap their kids in bubble wrap.
You didn't get wrapped in bubble wrap - and you CONTRACTED the diseases!! All of them, apparently.
I don't think you are making the sense you think you are.
I don't want to put words into someone else's mouth, but I think the point is that there was a danger of infectious disease in the past that was more prevalent than what we have had in recent decades.
One of the end results of this whole thing may be a return to time where there has to be more of a respect for the dangers of easily communicable disease then the past few generations are used to. So, life will have to go on, society cant live in fear indefinitely.
Then again, I could be off base.
Go smoke 3 packs a day while you're at it, fuck today's research.
@KeithOlbermann
BREAKING. Source: Madison Square Garden offered the use of its entire facility to both the city and state of New York as a site for a Coronavirus hospital/medical facility during crisis.
Gov. Cuomo’s office determined MSG would not be ideal for the purpose; gratefully declined.
To me this means there are a great amount of patients who have no symptoms or very mild symptoms. Many of the asymptomatic or mild cases , the majority, have weird things on a CT scan. Isn't that odd? Plus, with this many mild or no symptom cases, no wonder this thing spreads like wild fire.
I found this interesting anyway.
Report from cases on that first cruise ship - ( New Window )
Let’s all try to get along and if that’s not possible at least don’t attack anyone personally. Especially the mods trying to keep this thing going.
☀
@JesseAPaul
· 36m
ALERT: Liquor stores, recreational marijuana shops and breweries will be ordered to close in Denver. https://twitter.com/larryryckman/s
Was kicker a constant bad poster we needed to make an example of?
Or were posts deleted I now cant see on the thread?
Why put effort into contributing to others ?
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what is the fucking point here??
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When I was a kid in the early 60's, measles, mumps and scarlet fever were all around, especially New York City . I got hit with them all plus chicken pox. These diseases were a scourge against children much more than COVID is. And yet my parents and every other parent didn't wrap their kids in bubble wrap.
You didn't get wrapped in bubble wrap - and you CONTRACTED the diseases!! All of them, apparently.
I don't think you are making the sense you think you are.
I don't want to put words into someone else's mouth, but I think the point is that there was a danger of infectious disease in the past that was more prevalent than what we have had in recent decades.
One of the end results of this whole thing may be a return to time where there has to be more of a respect for the dangers of easily communicable disease then the past few generations are used to. So, life will have to go on, society cant live in fear indefinitely.
Then again, I could be off base.
Go smoke 3 packs a day while you're at it, fuck today's research.
Was kicker a constant bad poster we needed to make an example of?
Or were posts deleted I now cant see on the thread?
Why put effort into contributing to others ?
The fact that such a strict stance is being taken during a global pandemic is a disgrace. This has been an excellent, informative thread. The banning is just absurd.
Was kicker a constant bad poster we needed to make an example of?
Or were posts deleted I now cant see on the thread?
Why put effort into contributing to others ?
Bill,
I deleted some of his posts that were political -- he was warned about it too.
Quote:
No refunds.. waste of a concert season
This is seriously scary..
I work from home.. so I can take care of my teens
I feel for young single parents that have no one..
I can see bankruptcy getting bad.
They have already said the housing market is done..
I have a question, how do you pay out all these deceased senior citizens life insurance policies? Feel like that will be on the horizon in a few weeks.
The term act of God is going to be very familiar I think.
I'll email.
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so because 60 years ago we didn't have the means to prevent more exposure, we shouldn't now that we do?
Go smoke 3 packs a day while you're at it, fuck today's research.
So taking a kid outside a house or an apartment is the equivalent of smoking three packs a day ? Got it.
Well you can take your kids out of the apartment right now, just don't have them touch each other. So no, that's not what I'm comparing. You are making it seem like your childhood should be emulated, science be damned. Great advice.
Is this post serious? What do you know that Dr Fauci and all the other medical experts dont know?
That's a high percentage of people who have the virus and wouldn't know it unless tested. Something to remind us of how this thing is spreading.
Also, looked at COVID19 numbers in Tennessee this morning (where I live), which are now going up exponentially, and the highest percentage of COVID19 patients in ICU are 19-30 years of age, second highest are 31-40 years of age. The disproportionate affect on the elderly looks more and more like the low hanging fruit went first.
Be careful out there.
50% of people with COVID19 not showing symptoms - ( New Window )
That's a high percentage of people who have the virus and wouldn't know it unless tested. Something to remind us of how this thing is spreading.
Also, looked at COVID19 numbers in Tennessee this morning (where I live), which are now going up exponentially, and the highest percentage of COVID19 patients in ICU are 19-30 years of age, second highest are 31-40 years of age. The disproportionate affect on the elderly looks more and more like the low hanging fruit went first.
Be careful out there. 50% of people with COVID19 not showing symptoms - ( New Window )
Wouldn't the fact that a lot more people have it than are getting tested because they have no symptoms mean the mortality rate is much, much lower than being talked about? Every virus unfortunately brings some deaths, but the % of them is the important thing
My flat earther colleague said he hopes they don’t make the vaccine mandatory because he’s not doing it.
They are awful.
zero chance lol, my sister in law believes in no vaccines and there is zero chsnce she will give them a vaccine even though my brother in law is diabetic and on a pump
Coronavirus tests: researchers chase new diagnostics to fight the pandemic - ( New Window )
That's a high percentage of people who have the virus and wouldn't know it unless tested. Something to remind us of how this thing is spreading.
Also, looked at COVID19 numbers in Tennessee this morning (where I live), which are now going up exponentially, and the highest percentage of COVID19 patients in ICU are 19-30 years of age, second highest are 31-40 years of age. The disproportionate affect on the elderly looks more and more like the low hanging fruit went first.
Be careful out there. 50% of people with COVID19 not showing symptoms - ( New Window )
How many young people totally are actually in ICU right now, and what is the source on the Tennessee ICU % stats? Not insinuating, just curious.
The official TN data does show that over half of the current confirmed cases of COVID-19 are in the age brackets you site above.
615 confirmed cases total in Tennessee
--> 184 ages 21-20
--: 116 ages 31-40
Link below.
Tennessee official stats - ( New Window )
The problem is a lot of the other states are on the same curve as the most affected now and won't shut it down for long enough
but they might not get hit as hard because they are a lot more spread out then new york, new york you are on top of each other..
in wyoming or iowa some people have 50 acres of land before they see someone
Agree, and I would think that we have massive record-setting flu (and corona) vaccinations this fall but some outliers still won't do it like some people still don't wear searbelts.
And again, states like CA, NY, IL, PA, NJ, etc. are states with huge populations that fuel the economy. None of those states-from what I've seen/read-are going back to business anytime soon.
And again, states like CA, NY, IL, PA, NJ, etc. are states with huge populations that fuel the economy. None of those states-from what I've seen/read-are going back to business anytime soon.
Cuomo kind of alluded to going back to semi normal because people cant be out of work for months..
Murphy will follow whatever new york does
neither do i and i as optimistic as they come, numbers will still be rising because of more testing will be hard to justify in just a week
It was interesting that Dr. Fauci wasn’t there.
And again, states like CA, NY, IL, PA, NJ, etc. are states with huge populations that fuel the economy. None of those states-from what I've seen/read-are going back to business anytime soon.
Isn't the virus already everywhere? I think the thinking is that things are as bad as they will get in a lot of places, and should start to recede due to all the measures in place. That leaves a few hotspots that need to go on longer.
- Helps from a data standpoint to know what the recovery numbers are
- Can possibly help from a science standpoint and having people donate blood/plasma/whatever in the push for a vaccine
- Also identify people who are "safe" and can actually help in going out to get things for people in need
I've told my own story on here. Today is the first day in over a week that I actually feel more or less back to my old self. I don't want to jinx it, because I started to feel a little better going into the weekend (though still had slight fevers) but Saturday night took a down turn and Sunday got my ass kicked and couldn't get out of bed. However, since Sunday night and all through today have had no fever, haven't had to lay down, and I'm hoping that I have truly turned the corner.
I called my doctor and what he's seen is that for people who have a "mild" case, that sounds pretty much what I've gone through. It's usually over a week and then you start to feel better. I still couldn't get a test, even though I want one to know for sure, and my family wants to know. I again tried to get on line at Bergen Community, but it filled up before it even opened.
What my doctor told me, is what has been discussed, particularly in the NY/NJ area where we are seeing the numbers rise because of testing, he said he's spoken with many of his peers and they all have been recounting how many cases of people coming to the dr. office in late January/February with a fever, cough, etc and they would test negative for strep and flu. They would say it's just some other virus and move on. But he said in hindsight, he thinks that it's likely those cases were Covid-19.
That brings to mind the link I shared a few weeks back from the data science perspective and how when Wuhan was looking at their data and cases, the cases had already exploded, they didn't know it. I think this thing has been floating around in the US since Jan/Feb but only now are we looking to identify it for sure and as a result of it moving along we are now at a big explosion.
Still, at the end of the day, any actual numbers we are seeing are complete bullshit. My doctor told me for all intents and purposes, I should assume that based on what my symptoms were, I had/have it. Social distancing is the responsible answer for this right now as treatment is figured out. But whatever figures you are seeing in the NY/NJ area, just go ahead and multiply them by 10 or 20 and that's likely what it really is.
I just think that the right officials need to be thinking of changing these tests to see who already had it and start working on attacking this from 2 angles. Right now they are only testing people who they are thinking could be hospitalized (or if you are a rich celebrity/athlete). Super frustrating.
More testing is good. And I suspect we'll see the mortality rate go down with more testing in the weeks to come.
Link - ( New Window )
Good Lord I can't wait till we're back to a semi-normal day to day life. This sucks.
me and my wife are/were supposed to go to lancaster pa in april, i said to my wife do you think the amish have any idea what is going on in the world?
with no computers, no tvs, no media they probably just living normal life
What I wouldn't give to be in some shack in Maine with no contact with the outside world until like June & this has all, God willing, passed.
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Probably, yes. But as nygiants16 pointed out, large states are going to get the brunt of it because they're more populated than rural states obviously. But eventually this is going to be a big problem in Oklahoma, WV, etc too, perhaps when those big states are going back to semi normal.
me and my wife are/were supposed to go to lancaster pa in april, i said to my wife do you think the amish have any idea what is going on in the world?
with no computers, no tvs, no media they probably just living normal life
Odd coincidence - I have an April trip to Lancaster PA scheduled as well. To visit a 94-year old aunt. Don't think it's going to happen....
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In comment 14847533 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Probably, yes. But as nygiants16 pointed out, large states are going to get the brunt of it because they're more populated than rural states obviously. But eventually this is going to be a big problem in Oklahoma, WV, etc too, perhaps when those big states are going back to semi normal.
me and my wife are/were supposed to go to lancaster pa in april, i said to my wife do you think the amish have any idea what is going on in the world?
with no computers, no tvs, no media they probably just living normal life
Odd coincidence - I have an April trip to Lancaster PA scheduled as well. To visit a 94-year old aunt. Don't think it's going to happen....
yeah we havnt decided yet, going to see where we are in a couple of weeks then call hotel..
i mean the town we stay in is intercourse pa, hard to give that up..
Same thing, looking back he thinks it’s been here for a while.
Same thing, looking back he thinks it’s been here for a while.
We don't know and probably won't for a long time if at all on the timing/spread.
I'd bet against it actually.
There's been a large number of rhinoviruses and "old" coronaviruses out there that mimic symptomatically one another. Many negative flu tests if ordered with existing respiratory panels will catch these.
My mother was in hospital for several days back in mid-February and tested negative for flu, but positive for two viruses (a well known rhinovirus and a mild coronavirus - they were insistent to check on the strain that came up and it was one of the oldest strains out there - there were people showing up in hospitals (as my mothers doctor told us) as early as six-seven weeks ago insisting they had the Chinese strain as it was being called and almost 99% of them came up conclusively negative).
At least irony still exits in 2020. Everything else is up for grabs.
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In comment 14847566 nygiants16 said:
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In comment 14847533 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Probably, yes. But as nygiants16 pointed out, large states are going to get the brunt of it because they're more populated than rural states obviously. But eventually this is going to be a big problem in Oklahoma, WV, etc too, perhaps when those big states are going back to semi normal.
me and my wife are/were supposed to go to lancaster pa in april, i said to my wife do you think the amish have any idea what is going on in the world?
with no computers, no tvs, no media they probably just living normal life
Odd coincidence - I have an April trip to Lancaster PA scheduled as well. To visit a 94-year old aunt. Don't think it's going to happen....
yeah we havnt decided yet, going to see where we are in a couple of weeks then call hotel..
i mean the town we stay in is intercourse pa, hard to give that up..
PA is pretty much on lockdown. You may not have any choice but to reschedule your trip if this keeps up.
But on a serious note, I was reading again how important getting enough sleep is during this quarantine (I'm NJ). I lay my head down at 930pm and rise 5am these days, give or take a bit. Most important window of sleep is 10pm to 2am or so.
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one positive result of this crisis is that anti-vax weirdos will never be given a platform or taken seriously again.
Wishful thinking.
Even so, it's devoutly to be wished for.
I'm not so much "anti-vaccine" as I am "pro-solid-testing" and I also believe humanity needs to think more along the lines of "how do I improve my natural, God-given immunity" system in light of our world today.
Anti-biotics are needed at times, yes, but we overdo it and mess up our microbiome.
My prayer is CV19 comes and goes quickly. And if it actually was "man-made" in China that the world finds out and holds someone(s) accountable. Wishful thinking...yes.
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In comment 14847579 Del Shofner said:
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In comment 14847566 nygiants16 said:
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In comment 14847533 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Probably, yes. But as nygiants16 pointed out, large states are going to get the brunt of it because they're more populated than rural states obviously. But eventually this is going to be a big problem in Oklahoma, WV, etc too, perhaps when those big states are going back to semi normal.
me and my wife are/were supposed to go to lancaster pa in april, i said to my wife do you think the amish have any idea what is going on in the world?
with no computers, no tvs, no media they probably just living normal life
Odd coincidence - I have an April trip to Lancaster PA scheduled as well. To visit a 94-year old aunt. Don't think it's going to happen....
yeah we havnt decided yet, going to see where we are in a couple of weeks then call hotel..
i mean the town we stay in is intercourse pa, hard to give that up..
PA is pretty much on lockdown. You may not have any choice but to reschedule your trip if this keeps up.
oh i know
I'm not so much "anti-vaccine" as I am "pro-solid-testing" and I also believe humanity needs to think more along the lines of "how do I improve my natural, God-given immunity" system in light of our world today.
Anti-biotics are needed at times, yes, but we overdo it and mess up our microbiome.
My prayer is CV19 comes and goes quickly. And if it actually was "man-made" in China that the world finds out and holds someone(s) accountable. Wishful thinking...yes.
Oh come on man. Did Jenny McCarthy tell you all of that?
I'm not so much "anti-vaccine" as I am "pro-solid-testing" and I also believe humanity needs to think more along the lines of "how do I improve my natural, God-given immunity" system in light of our world today.
Anti-biotics are needed at times, yes, but we overdo it and mess up our microbiome.
My prayer is CV19 comes and goes quickly. And if it actually was "man-made" in China that the world finds out and holds someone(s) accountable. Wishful thinking...yes.
It has been reported in major peer-reviewed publications that it was not “man-made” in China, so that ludicrous talking point should go away. It won’t, of course, because certain sects need a bogeyman.
- Helps from a data standpoint to know what the recovery numbers are
- Can possibly help from a science standpoint and having people donate blood/plasma/whatever in the push for a vaccine
- Also identify people who are "safe" and can actually help in going out to get things for people in need
I've told my own story on here. Today is the first day in over a week that I actually feel more or less back to my old self. I don't want to jinx it, because I started to feel a little better going into the weekend (though still had slight fevers) but Saturday night took a down turn and Sunday got my ass kicked and couldn't get out of bed. However, since Sunday night and all through today have had no fever, haven't had to lay down, and I'm hoping that I have truly turned the corner.
I called my doctor and what he's seen is that for people who have a "mild" case, that sounds pretty much what I've gone through. It's usually over a week and then you start to feel better. I still couldn't get a test, even though I want one to know for sure, and my family wants to know. I again tried to get on line at Bergen Community, but it filled up before it even opened.
What my doctor told me, is what has been discussed, particularly in the NY/NJ area where we are seeing the numbers rise because of testing, he said he's spoken with many of his peers and they all have been recounting how many cases of people coming to the dr. office in late January/February with a fever, cough, etc and they would test negative for strep and flu. They would say it's just some other virus and move on. But he said in hindsight, he thinks that it's likely those cases were Covid-19.
That brings to mind the link I shared a few weeks back from the data science perspective and how when Wuhan was looking at their data and cases, the cases had already exploded, they didn't know it. I think this thing has been floating around in the US since Jan/Feb but only now are we looking to identify it for sure and as a result of it moving along we are now at a big explosion.
Still, at the end of the day, any actual numbers we are seeing are complete bullshit. My doctor told me for all intents and purposes, I should assume that based on what my symptoms were, I had/have it. Social distancing is the responsible answer for this right now as treatment is figured out. But whatever figures you are seeing in the NY/NJ area, just go ahead and multiply them by 10 or 20 and that's likely what it really is.
I just think that the right officials need to be thinking of changing these tests to see who already had it and start working on attacking this from 2 angles. Right now they are only testing people who they are thinking could be hospitalized (or if you are a rich celebrity/athlete). Super frustrating.
Hey Matt, glad you’re hopefully turning a corner. I posted earlier about what my wife and daughter went through around that time. And to a much lesser extent myself and my other daughter. Then today I mentioned how losing smell/taste was a sign when bxgiants posted about it and it started to make the rounds. My daughter and wife immediately said “remember when we couldn’t smell the Vicks for a couple of days and taste food?” I forgot about that part. I’m almost positive now it ran through my house. This started in my house January 20th and didn’t fully resolve until February 28th after my wife got a bit of a relapse.
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Hey Matt, glad you’re hopefully turning a corner. I posted earlier about what my wife and daughter went through around that time. And to a much lesser extent myself and my other daughter. Then today I mentioned how losing smell/taste was a sign when bxgiants posted about it and it started to make the rounds. My daughter and wife immediately said “remember when we couldn’t smell the Vicks for a couple of days and taste food?” I forgot about that part. I’m almost positive now it ran through my house. This started in my house January 20th and didn’t fully resolve until February 28th after my wife got a bit of a relapse.
I heard about that too. Honestly, I don't remember about the smell/taste stuff before it. My sense of smell sucks anyway (thanks in part to breaking my nose 3 times when I was younger playing sports). All I remember was a week or so ago, my throat had a very very slight tickle, I had some stomach issues and I went for a walk with my wife and dog to the park, and came back and laid down on the couch because I was exhausted. But I don't recall anything about taste/smell.
But from personal experience, it would not surprise me. In addition virus's and pneumonias all have some similar traits. And treatment paths. An a pyramid of almost imperceptible to severe cases
Im not sure analyzing trends on top of inconclusive data isn't going to yield much concrete insights.
Leading as healthy as one can seems to be what we can control.
Most people don't want to show up on any lists for any reason.
Second, outside of Moscow at 12.5 Million people, St Petersburg at 5.5M people and Novosibirsk at 1.5M they only have about 12 other cities with populations over 800,000.
And all of them are widely disbursed.
Next, they have an easy time with compliance with regulations to not travel.
They have a decent health system at the top edge but everything else is based on lines and lines of red tape
Will this stop things? No, it will slow them down.
The border with China and Mongolia and Siberia is pretty porous and there are many Chinese that live in parts of Siberia.
Id worry about Vladivostok as an entry. A port city close to NK and China and long a typical 3rd world port city. A mess. Big smuggling port for all kinds of stuff.
But one thing is certain, the actual core Russian people are not soft and have put up with tons of hardships, obstacles and deprivation. If you gave each family 12 potatoes for the week, they would find a way. ( six potatoes go into the homemade vodka (its a great source of sugars) and 5 for the youngest kids and one for grandma).
Just bone tough. That's a country whose people can hunkerdown
At some point, we need to be like the Russians. There has to be a cost/benefit analysis regarding what we do as the cost may soon become worse than the cure. I trust that is being taken into account.
But from personal experience, it would not surprise me. In addition virus's and pneumonias all have some similar traits. And treatment paths. An a pyramid of almost imperceptible to severe cases
Im not sure analyzing trends on top of inconclusive data isn't going to yield much concrete insights.
Leading as healthy as one can seems to be what we can control.
Well, hopefully I'll know (in hindsight really) after I get tested tomorrow in Paramus. I reserved my spot, so let's see if they actually hold it. I'm stuck in my basement until Monday next week (14 days). If I get the test back and it wasn't it, then I'm free to at least go around the rest of my house ;)
Say it turns out that it wasn't COVID-19. Aren't you just as vulnerable to it then as the rest of us who have not yet had it -- and, I hope, never do?
This article pegs the death rate at over 5% for symptomatic patients 14 days after onset.
Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection - ( New Window )
This article pegs the death rate at over 5% for symptomatic patients 14 days after onset.
Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection - ( New Window )
March 1 article based on old Chinese data, with a key part using 138 hospitalized Chinese patients. We're way past that. What does the same kind of analysis produce today? That is, why would you think 5% is the right one to use now?
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This may be why The UK suddenly pivoted to a nationwide shutdown.
This article pegs the death rate at over 5% for symptomatic patients 14 days after onset.
Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection - ( New Window )
March 1 article based on old Chinese data, with a key part using 138 hospitalized Chinese patients. We're way past that. What does the same kind of analysis produce today? That is, why would you think 5% is the right one to use now?
Data is data March 1st or not. I didn't write the thing you fucking jackass.
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I was able to book at test tomorrow at 1:20 PM at a doctor's office in Paramus that is allowing people to sign up online and they come to your car to test. They put fliers out today and I just put in for it and blocked a slot so looks like I'll find out one way or another if this was it, likely after I should be nearly 100%. I'll say this, after it kicked my ass the past week, if this wasn't Covid-19, then I don't want to get it.
Say it turns out that it wasn't COVID-19. Aren't you just as vulnerable to it then as the rest of us who have not yet had it -- and, I hope, never do?
Yup, double edged sword. That thought crossed my mind.
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In comment 14847672 GiantEgo said:
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This may be why The UK suddenly pivoted to a nationwide shutdown.
This article pegs the death rate at over 5% for symptomatic patients 14 days after onset.
Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection - ( New Window )
March 1 article based on old Chinese data, with a key part using 138 hospitalized Chinese patients. We're way past that. What does the same kind of analysis produce today? That is, why would you think 5% is the right one to use now?
Data is data March 1st or not. I didn't write the thing you fucking jackass.
That escalated quickly.
My secondary comment was about how persistent you had to be to get the test and how unclear many "cases" that might be or have been are now classified as untested or classified as something else.
Doing the same thing in my house, so fully sympathy and best wishes to you
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In comment 14847676 Percy said:
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In comment 14847672 GiantEgo said:
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This may be why The UK suddenly pivoted to a nationwide shutdown.
This article pegs the death rate at over 5% for symptomatic patients 14 days after onset.
Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection - ( New Window )
March 1 article based on old Chinese data, with a key part using 138 hospitalized Chinese patients. We're way past that. What does the same kind of analysis produce today? That is, why would you think 5% is the right one to use now?
Data is data March 1st or not. I didn't write the thing you fucking jackass.
That escalated quickly.
It need not. Some are either overly sensitive or juvenile. Insults (like "you fucking jackass") never advance anything but the speaker's self satisfaction. This actually is about something more serious than that.
Back on Friday January 26th I got slammed with at the time I thought was the flu.
Started with a dry cough quite suddenly and sunk real fast. By that evening I was done and had chills and went to bed. Next morning could hardly move, still dry coughing very aggressively, 100.5 fever, chills and very fatigued. I basically was in that state and slept basically for 36 hours straight. I never get that sick esp with no appetite as my wife who is generally not concerned was.
By Sunday evening the fever was gone and the cough subsided but was still very fatigued and just felt like crap.
Took off from work Monday and Tuesday as precautionary measure and not to infect the office. I later found out that 6 of us in the office (it’s a rather large office of about 60 people)all got similar symptoms over that weekend.
Then on Tuesday I developed upper respiratory issues and started to have some minor shortness of breath and for the following 17 days had severe sputum and nasal discharge which starts to finally subside on day 14 of this ordeal. I am 54 and I never in my life had amounts and constant thick mucus. I had to work at getting it out of me and even said someone older would probably end up with pneumonia. Mornings were especially bad. And for 2 days (prob day 7-8 of this 21 day ordeal) I had some blood mixed in.
Stupid me never went to the Doctor as I really didn’t feel that bad. I functioned. Would feel good after a good nights rest ( was going to sleep at 8 every night) but would feel not bad in the morning. But by 2 or 3 in the afternoon I would start to fatigue.
As this COVID 19 started to gain momentum in the media I wondered if I indeed had this thing. First jokingly but now seriously. One thing that concerned me is that 6 days before getting sick I was in NYC for a NY Rangers game thus was at a bar pre game and of course in MSG. Thus as time went along I really started to feel I may have had it. I will never know for sure but what I do know this sickness was odd and something very unique. But thankfully I got though it and feel great. I am still taking precautions now.
Hope all you stay healthy.
Back on Friday January 26th I got slammed with at the time I thought was the flu.
Started with a dry cough quite suddenly and sunk real fast. By that evening I was done and had chills and went to bed. Next morning could hardly move, still dry coughing very aggressively, 100.5 fever, chills and very fatigued. I basically was in that state and slept basically for 36 hours straight. I never get that sick esp with no appetite as my wife who is generally not concerned was.
By Sunday evening the fever was gone and the cough subsided but was still very fatigued and just felt like crap.
Took off from work Monday and Tuesday as precautionary measure and not to infect the office. I later found out that 6 of us in the office (it’s a rather large office of about 60 people)all got similar symptoms over that weekend.
Then on Tuesday I developed upper respiratory issues and started to have some minor shortness of breath and for the following 17 days had severe sputum and nasal discharge which starts to finally subside on day 14 of this ordeal. I am 54 and I never in my life had amounts and constant thick mucus. I had to work at getting it out of me and even said someone older would probably end up with pneumonia. Mornings were especially bad. And for 2 days (prob day 7-8 of this 21 day ordeal) I had some blood mixed in.
Stupid me never went to the Doctor as I really didn’t feel that bad. I functioned. Would feel good after a good nights rest ( was going to sleep at 8 every night) but would feel not bad in the morning. But by 2 or 3 in the afternoon I would start to fatigue.
As this COVID 19 started to gain momentum in the media I wondered if I indeed had this thing. First jokingly but now seriously. One thing that concerned me is that 6 days before getting sick I was in NYC for a NY Rangers game thus was at a bar pre game and of course in MSG. Thus as time went along I really started to feel I may have had it. I will never know for sure but what I do know this sickness was odd and something very unique. But thankfully I got though it and feel great. I am still taking precautions now.
Hope all you stay healthy.
Glad you feel better
Back on Friday January 26th I got slammed with at the time I thought was the flu.
Started with a dry cough quite suddenly and sunk real fast. ...
Stupid me never went to the Doctor as I really didn’t feel that bad. I functioned. Would feel good after a good nights rest ( was going to sleep at 8 every night) but would feel not bad in the morning. But by 2 or 3 in the afternoon I would start to fatigue.
As this COVID 19 started to gain momentum in the media I wondered if I indeed had this thing. ... I will never know for sure but what I do know this sickness was odd and something very unique. But thankfully I got though it and feel great. I am still taking precautions now. ..
Devour, Sounds like you really dodged the bullet, thankfully. No one will doubt you had what you had. Before you felt like such crap, you were shedding the virus, spreading it unaware. At my age, this scares the living you-know-what out of me. Had it been me, I don't think I'd be here now. What a hideous thing this is.
Since a 100 people with the covid 19 virus will list out 100 different combinations of symptoms, it's really impossible to diagnose based on description. I checked a lot of the boxes on the C19 symptom list. But I checked off a lot of those boxes pretty much every year for the last 50 years when I had a cold/flu/bug.
Did I have it? I hope so. Do I fear it if I didn't? Not for myself. I've got wealth in my health. My live-in girlfriend life partner, though, is firmly in the at risk category with all the existing health conditions one does NOT want to have with this virus. For her, I'm worried. She kept her distance since I first came down with symptoms, and we think she's clear of whatever I had, but the summer is going to be tough as restrictions are relaxed and the pandemic is allowed to run its course with attempts to control it, which is ultimately what is going to happen. (Cuomo is already greasing the skids for that course of action)
Millions and millions of people get some form of cold/flue/bug/mystery illness every year. Covid 19 is just another one to add to the list. One that can be very deadly, to be sure, but one that probably has been very widespread, hiding out with all the other illnesses we get. And for every one who had/has the C 19, there's likely several who had a traditional. IMO, we did not shut the door quick enough. The bugger is out there, and a huge chunk of the herd already has or had it. At this point, a huge chunk of the populace is guessing as to what we have or had. We're all just whistling dixie til reliable widespread tests are available to see who has it, or had it, making decisions based on educated guesses. There's a whole lot of unknown cloudiness in variables that are forming policy, and social opinion (which in turn is another variable in forming policy).
Shut down for a week or two and let health capabilities and supplies catch up, then start exposing the herd some more. Hopefully, people will be more aware and health conscious and this alone will help slow down the rate of people getting it. My experience in the store today suggests people don't quite have the hang of social distancing yet.
Yes. I've been watching movies. I'm on movie number 36.
Shut down for a week or two and let health capabilities and supplies catch up, then start exposing the herd some more. Hopefully, people will be more aware and health conscious and this alone will help slow down the rate of people getting it. My experience in the store today suggests people don't quite have the hang of social distancing yet.
Ditto, though no Portugal for me and probably a different store. Thing is, as animals that have founded civilizations, we can see they all are based on one or more forms of group -- from two, in a couple, often breeding, to an army, or people jammed in a subway car. But always a group. Now we are told we can't have those, that they are killing us. Quelle surprise! So we are trying not to have them for a while, for the sake of all our groups and all of us. Can we? Sure. "Social distancing" doesn't quite capture it. Can we do it forever? Absolutely not.
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Is the best course of action? Holy shit.
Yes. I've been watching movies. I'm on movie number 36.
Thing is, the risk of those under 60 is still significant. Roughly 2/5ths of all hospitalizations, per the CDC, have been under the age of 54. This was the approach that the UK originally wanted to take and they did an abrupt about-face. It's pretty risky.
I would like to see certain areas locked down, completely, in that you cannot enter or leave by any means; however, within those areas, you are free to go about your business. And then slowly over time, you expand those regions, as the risk warrants. I would just hate to have gone through all this effort, only to have a second wave hit us in immediately after giving the all-clear.
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listening to Scott Adams, the Isreali Defense Minister and the things that Trump is hinting about here's what I think. Especially if the drug tests in NY, etc go well in the next week, but regardless, within the next 2 weeks I expect that Trump will 1) allow most people under 60-65 to return to work, except less so for possibly some pockets like NYC, New Orleans or other hotspots, and 2) request that seniors and people with predisposing conditions remain with social distancing for the next few months. Remember, this disease will not stop until we have herd immunity, with about 70% of the population having passed through it. If we keep the seniors off the front lines, we can get there fairly quickly with the younger folks, who have a much lower mortality rate, making it through. And since most seniors are retired, we can pretty much have the whole work force back at their jobs and kids back at school, though I think parents may irrationally freak out about the kids returning. Regardless, they're not going to be able to keep them from being with other kids for very long.
Thing is, the risk of those under 60 is still significant. Roughly 2/5ths of all hospitalizations, per the CDC, have been under the age of 54. This was the approach that the UK originally wanted to take and they did an abrupt about-face. It's pretty risky.
I would like to see certain areas locked down, completely, in that you cannot enter or leave by any means; however, within those areas, you are free to go about your business. And then slowly over time, you expand those regions, as the risk warrants. I would just hate to have gone through all this effort, only to have a second wave hit us in immediately after giving the all-clear.
First of all, if we cut this off now, with so few people having developed immunity, we're almost certain to go through a second wave. I believe I heard today that except for one case of a 14 year old, I think in China, that no one under 15 has died. If virtually everyone under 60 goes back to work, certainly many will become infected but a much smaller percentage will need hospitalization. And if the drug test are successful, most of those will be cured. Certainly there will be deaths, but there are substantial deaths from flu that doesn't cause us to shut down the country. A normal flu year has about a 0.1% mortality rate. Right now the Covid-19 mortality rate is at 1.3% in the U.S., but that's without widespread testing, so many more have it than we know, so the real rate is probably under 1%. And most of those are the elderly. If we remove that population, the mortality rate should probably drop under 0.5%. It could very well be decided that most of the country can handle the number of cases they'll get. Or not. Hopefully we'll have a much better picture very soon.
Yeah, boomers/old guys. Take a break. We got this.
You guys really are tied to this whole working thing. "Put bread on the table."
There's plenty of bread. People are the size of fucking planets these days.
So, sit back, listen to your Eric Clapton 8tracks and let us handle it. Nice and smooth. Maybe teach your grandson to play the guitar and bring back the lost art?
Thanks for leaving us with the good stuff ;-)
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The WHO sent 25 international experts to China and here are their main findings after 9 days - ( New Window )
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In comment 14847764 Bill in UT said:
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listening to Scott Adams, the Isreali Defense Minister and the things that Trump is hinting about here's what I think. Especially if the drug tests in NY, etc go well in the next week, but regardless, within the next 2 weeks I expect that Trump will 1) allow most people under 60-65 to return to work, except less so for possibly some pockets like NYC, New Orleans or other hotspots, and 2) request that seniors and people with predisposing conditions remain with social distancing for the next few months. Remember, this disease will not stop until we have herd immunity, with about 70% of the population having passed through it. If we keep the seniors off the front lines, we can get there fairly quickly with the younger folks, who have a much lower mortality rate, making it through. And since most seniors are retired, we can pretty much have the whole work force back at their jobs and kids back at school, though I think parents may irrationally freak out about the kids returning. Regardless, they're not going to be able to keep them from being with other kids for very long.
Thing is, the risk of those under 60 is still significant. Roughly 2/5ths of all hospitalizations, per the CDC, have been under the age of 54. This was the approach that the UK originally wanted to take and they did an abrupt about-face. It's pretty risky.
I would like to see certain areas locked down, completely, in that you cannot enter or leave by any means; however, within those areas, you are free to go about your business. And then slowly over time, you expand those regions, as the risk warrants. I would just hate to have gone through all this effort, only to have a second wave hit us in immediately after giving the all-clear.
First of all, if we cut this off now, with so few people having developed immunity, we're almost certain to go through a second wave. I believe I heard today that except for one case of a 14 year old, I think in China, that no one under 15 has died. If virtually everyone under 60 goes back to work, certainly many will become infected but a much smaller percentage will need hospitalization. And if the drug test are successful, most of those will be cured. Certainly there will be deaths, but there are substantial deaths from flu that doesn't cause us to shut down the country. A normal flu year has about a 0.1% mortality rate. Right now the Covid-19 mortality rate is at 1.3% in the U.S., but that's without widespread testing, so many more have it than we know, so the real rate is probably under 1%. And most of those are the elderly. If we remove that population, the mortality rate should probably drop under 0.5%. It could very well be decided that most of the country can handle the number of cases they'll get. Or not. Hopefully we'll have a much better picture very soon.
Bill, You are looking at a death rate in the early stages of the pandemic. I fully agree that we have the demoninator too low and that the actually death rates are lower than advertised. But it is probably low in Italy as well and it's really bad there and they are about 10-14 days ahead of the US. By the end of the day today the US will have around 55,000 cases. End of the week it will be getting close to 100,000 unless things dramatically change. There is a trade off, we can't save everyone. But I don't think we are even close to the shit really hitting the fan here.
@RubinoJC
· 11h
Major update: After panicked crowds swarm Denver liquor stores and dispensaries, the mayor has reversed his order to close both. They're now essential businesses provided they can abide by "extreme social distancing." https://denverpost.com/2020/03/23/liq
I wonder what the data will show for those being treated with medication already for those conditions and how that impacts their having this virus. We have many in the younger ages with at least HBP and BS levels already on medication.
Looks like we are going to be opening up for business relatively soon. Regardless, I can't see this V recovery though I am not a finance person. Major cities are going to be crushed by this for quite some time. Between lost revenues for businesses not operating they also have huge revenue streams from the transportation systems and tourists. I can't see many in the world just hopping on the plane again and taking trips which then has a trickle down effect.
Even if we can lower the death rate percentage to .5% the number of deaths is all dependent upon the number infected which will be huge imo. How the deaths are reported may alter that percentage.
I also worry about even more division in the country as if we don't have enough (Quarantine versus Back to Business).
I hope these potential treatments will work or we develop some that will help treat this short term till a vaccine is found. Stay safe everyone and be especially mindful to those vulnerable.
All the fellow passengers on the bus have been tested for the virus.
What is Hantavirus?
The Centre for Disease Control says that the virus is spread mainly from rodents. It goes on to say that infection with any of the hantavirus can cause hantavirus disease in people
"Hantaviruses in the Americas are known as “New World” hantaviruses and may cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). Other hantaviruses, known as “Old World” hantaviruses, are found mostly in Europe and Asia and may cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS)," the CDC website said.
The hantavirus case comes at time when the total count of those infected by novel coronavirus globally is nearing the 400,000 mark and scientists are yet to find a cure for it. The global death toll has crossed the 16,500 mark.
....
link - ( New Window )
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In comment 14847764 Bill in UT said:
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listening to Scott Adams, the Isreali Defense Minister and the things that Trump is hinting about here's what I think. Especially if the drug tests in NY, etc go well in the next week, but regardless, within the next 2 weeks I expect that Trump will 1) allow most people under 60-65 to return to work, except less so for possibly some pockets like NYC, New Orleans or other hotspots, and 2) request that seniors and people with predisposing conditions remain with social distancing for the next few months. Remember, this disease will not stop until we have herd immunity, with about 70% of the population having passed through it. If we keep the seniors off the front lines, we can get there fairly quickly with the younger folks, who have a much lower mortality rate, making it through. And since most seniors are retired, we can pretty much have the whole work force back at their jobs and kids back at school, though I think parents may irrationally freak out about the kids returning. Regardless, they're not going to be able to keep them from being with other kids for very long.
Thing is, the risk of those under 60 is still significant. Roughly 2/5ths of all hospitalizations, per the CDC, have been under the age of 54. This was the approach that the UK originally wanted to take and they did an abrupt about-face. It's pretty risky.
I would like to see certain areas locked down, completely, in that you cannot enter or leave by any means; however, within those areas, you are free to go about your business. And then slowly over time, you expand those regions, as the risk warrants. I would just hate to have gone through all this effort, only to have a second wave hit us in immediately after giving the all-clear.
First of all, if we cut this off now, with so few people having developed immunity, we're almost certain to go through a second wave. I believe I heard today that except for one case of a 14 year old, I think in China, that no one under 15 has died. If virtually everyone under 60 goes back to work, certainly many will become infected but a much smaller percentage will need hospitalization. And if the drug test are successful, most of those will be cured. Certainly there will be deaths, but there are substantial deaths from flu that doesn't cause us to shut down the country. A normal flu year has about a 0.1% mortality rate. Right now the Covid-19 mortality rate is at 1.3% in the U.S., but that's without widespread testing, so many more have it than we know, so the real rate is probably under 1%. And most of those are the elderly. If we remove that population, the mortality rate should probably drop under 0.5%. It could very well be decided that most of the country can handle the number of cases they'll get. Or not. Hopefully we'll have a much better picture very soon.
The mortality rate is a lagging indicator. You need to assume that there will always be a portion of society that doesn't know they were infected and showed no symptoms or maybe never got tested and did show symptoms, so I agree that the mortality rate should eventually drop. But the same could be said for the flu.
There are a couple of things to consider: In South Korea, where testing was extensive (at least more so than here) they have a mortality rate of roughly 3.3% (when looking at all cases where the virus has run its course) or 1.3% (if you look at total cases thus far). In Italy, where we know hospitalization has been a struggle, they are looking at a mortality rate of either a staggering 45% or 12%, depending on which metric you prefer.
Italy needs to be the cautionary tale, but we also cannot just ignore South Korea. There is no indication that the mortality rate of this virus will drop to 0.5%.
As with the trade for LW, we won't know until after the tale has fully unfolded.
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I havent heard anyone say less than 15 days, and that puts us at about another two weeks. And if we go by what happened in Italy, its likely we extend another two weeks beyond this. That puts us at late April which seems reasonable to begin to loosen things up a little.... with no large events/gatherings permitted before June or July.
The thing is we'll never have an accurate picture of the long term consequences of keeping people at home. We know its bad, but how bad is it? How much hopelessness, homelessness, crime, drug abuse, suicide? These are very hard things to quantify, but I can't imagine it would look positive because our economy was built on a house of cards.
former college basketball players die coronavirus - ( New Window )
former college basketball players die coronavirus - ( New Window )
Scary stuff. I don't think people are fully grasping the sheer numbers this virus could effect. And how crippling it will be to society and the economy if the virus runs rampant. We are still in the first inning of this...
former college basketball players die coronavirus - ( New Window )
See, that's the shit that scares the hell out of me.
former college basketball players die coronavirus - ( New Window )
I saw Lee Green in the post, can't tell me that guy didn't have some pre-existing conditions. And I don't imagine David Edwards is looking any better, because none of the articles had recent pictures of him. I wonder what the effects of this virus will be on the long term health of our country. People are scared that have had health conditions that weren't immediate threats to their health unless they dropped dead of a heart attack. Now that it isn't as simple as taking some meds for these conditions instead of changing behavior, does that behavior change? I imagine many will be eating healthier in the short term, but behavior will change again as this goes into the rearview.
former college basketball players die coronavirus - ( New Window )
They've been finding lots of unrealized background conditions in some patients (who assume/look perfectly healthy) but once they've been tested (ie, early stage cancer, blood or heart disorders, other pulmonary conditions). Not to make it seem like this horrible thing COVID is doing anything good as it isn't, but it shows a good chunk of the population either doesn't keep on top of their health checkups or our system is not really doing as great a job as maintenance/testing on things.........Kind of like pulling or forcing a veil back if you will.
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I dont know if these guys had underlying health conditions, but both still in their 40s and former athletes. RIP.
former college basketball players die coronavirus - ( New Window )
They've been finding lots of unrealized background conditions in some patients (who assume/look perfectly healthy) but once they've been tested (ie, early stage cancer, blood or heart disorders, other pulmonary conditions). Not to make it seem like this horrible thing COVID is doing anything good as it isn't, but it shows a good chunk of the population either doesn't keep on top of their health checkups or our system is not really doing as great a job as maintenance/testing on things.........Kind of like pulling or forcing a veil back if you will.
The only place I've seen a seemingly healthy guy die is a doctor in Pakistan working with no PPE. The viral load plus the stress probably put extreme pressure on his immune system. If this was killing healthy people we would know by now. The problem is 2/3rds of the country has underlying health conditions.
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In comment 14847902 MetsAreBack said:
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I dont know if these guys had underlying health conditions, but both still in their 40s and former athletes. RIP.
former college basketball players die coronavirus - ( New Window )
They've been finding lots of unrealized background conditions in some patients (who assume/look perfectly healthy) but once they've been tested (ie, early stage cancer, blood or heart disorders, other pulmonary conditions). Not to make it seem like this horrible thing COVID is doing anything good as it isn't, but it shows a good chunk of the population either doesn't keep on top of their health checkups or our system is not really doing as great a job as maintenance/testing on things.........Kind of like pulling or forcing a veil back if you will.
The only place I've seen a seemingly healthy guy die is a doctor in Pakistan working with no PPE. The viral load plus the stress probably put extreme pressure on his immune system. If this was killing healthy people we would know by now. The problem is 2/3rds of the country has underlying health conditions.
There's lots of cases of seemingly healthy folks struggling under the virus and passing (problem is under these cases, they don't have the capacity to do full autopsies across the board to determine if there's something underlying because they're limited capacity, triaging, and strained on testing and other resources).
Let's double check that they are not chloroquine phosphate dosings first.
Link - ( New Window )
we've been very lenient -- including with you -- no politics please -- the unfortunate truth is whatever you believe, if you express it, there is a very good chance that half our readership will disagree with you -- and generally someone will try to refute it and then it devolves from there
Defying a national trend of campus closures, President Jerry Falwell Jr. has invited students to return to residence halls and has directed faculty members to continue to report to campus even as most classes move online.
In an interview Sunday night, Falwell said somewhere between several hundred to more than 5,000 students are expected to live in campus dorms, where they will continue coursework online rather than in classrooms.
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Given that all the serious case are very well known and that many mild or asymptomatic cases have not been counted, the actual fatality rate is almost certainly lower.
Feel free to check my numbers and my math.
Where my numbers came from - ( New Window )
New York is exploding with new cases, with the apex of cases now predicted to be within 2 to 3 weeks. The projection is also that New York will need 30,000 ventilators that they currently do not have.
Mortality rate is linked to available care. If hospitals are slammed, it will go up. If we continue to slow the influx with distancing, it will remain low. We are currently not on the downward slope of this thing.
How do you assume the denominator (positive for COVID-19) is probably much larger without acknowledging that the numerator (deaths from COVID-19) could also be larger?
"If we remove" the elderly...This just feels like mental gymnastics for the sake of downplaying. If we remove the elderly from all mortality calculations, do it across the board so we're still comparing apples to apples. What's the real mortality of the flu then if we're not counting the elderly?
And how do we effectively distance only the elderly? Do we lock them in a warehouse? The elderly come into contact, rely on contact with younger people for care. Their distancing becomes much less effective if everyone else is in a free for all.
I try to be compassionate, and empathetic, but these people did not even have COVID-19. They had nothing, no symptoms, but were worried about getting sick so they drank fish tank cleaner as a preventative, not even as a treatment (which would have had the same result).
This is what I'd call Darwin's theory in action. No offense.
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I see that total U.S. CV deaths last 24 hours is 14 people. I don't know if that's a blip or a trend, but if the latter that's great news. Yesterday I think the number was around 80?
New York is exploding with new cases, with the apex of cases now predicted to be within 2 to 3 weeks. The projection is also that New York will need 30,000 ventilators that they currently do not have.
they are exploding with cases because they are trsting more and the positive cases are from people 5 days ago, you wont see the benefit of lockdowns for another week maybe 2..
I dont know how anyone didnt expect the number of positive cases to go up..as long as the death rate doesnt explode we are ok..
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As this couple in Arizona did. Link - ( New Window )
I try to be compassionate, and empathetic, but these people did not even have COVID-19. They had nothing, no symptoms, but were worried about getting sick so they drank fish tank cleaner as a preventative, not even as a treatment (which would have had the same result).
This is what I'd call Darwin's theory in action. No offense.
It was incredible stupid thing to do but I still have some empathy for an elderly couple that obviously aren't too bright but felt that alone, scared, and desperate, to actually do something like that.
Add Pakistan, Russia, and China to India as countries I don't believe are releasing true data of cases and deaths
Can we get recovered patients, how many of those positives are in the hospital, how many are in icu, how many habe no symptoms, how many went to the hospital and got sent home? can we get some context please, just saying the number of positive cases tells us nothing
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LYNCHBURG — As the coronavirus threatens to spread across the Lynchburg region, Liberty University officials are preparing to welcome back up to 5,000 students from spring break this week.
Defying a national trend of campus closures, President Jerry Falwell Jr. has invited students to return to residence halls and has directed faculty members to continue to report to campus even as most classes move online.
In an interview Sunday night, Falwell said somewhere between several hundred to more than 5,000 students are expected to live in campus dorms, where they will continue coursework online rather than in classrooms.
Link - ( New Window )
Gotta make that money!
Can we get recovered patients, how many of those positives are in the hospital, how many are in icu, how many habe no symptoms, how many went to the hospital and got sent home? can we get some context please, just saying the number of positive cases tells us nothing
I have read quite a few articles of those that survived this w/ only mild suffering all the way to those that almost died
Especially given the living conditions in the poorer areas
This is the part that's going to swamp our medical infrastructure:
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Right now the Covid-19 mortality rate is at 1.3% in the U.S., but that's without widespread testing, so many more have it than we know, so the real rate is probably under 1%. And most of those are the elderly. If we remove that population, the mortality rate should probably drop under 0.5%. It could very well be decided that most of the country can handle the number of cases they'll get. Or not. Hopefully we'll have a much better picture very soon.
Mortality rate is linked to available care. If hospitals are slammed, it will go up. If we continue to slow the influx with distancing, it will remain low. We are currently not on the downward slope of this thing.
How do you assume the denominator (positive for COVID-19) is probably much larger without acknowledging that the numerator (deaths from COVID-19) could also be larger?
"If we remove" the elderly...This just feels like mental gymnastics for the sake of downplaying. If we remove the elderly from all mortality calculations, do it across the board so we're still comparing apples to apples. What's the real mortality of the flu then if we're not counting the elderly?
And how do we effectively distance only the elderly? Do we lock them in a warehouse? The elderly come into contact, rely on contact with younger people for care. Their distancing becomes much less effective if everyone else is in a free for all.
I didn't mean to remove the elderly from the calculations, I meant to remove them from the general population- isolate them/me more. Have them play by a different set of rules. If we have a lot of the younger population get and recover from the disease, you then also have the ability to have most interactions with the elderly done by people who are no longer a threat to them. How do we "effectively" distance the elderly? Probably the same way we're doing it now and into the indefinite future.
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In comment 14848055 Eli Wilson said:
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As this couple in Arizona did. Link - ( New Window )
I try to be compassionate, and empathetic, but these people did not even have COVID-19. They had nothing, no symptoms, but were worried about getting sick so they drank fish tank cleaner as a preventative, not even as a treatment (which would have had the same result).
This is what I'd call Darwin's theory in action. No offense.
It was incredible stupid thing to do but I still have some empathy for an elderly couple that obviously aren't too bright but felt that alone, scared, and desperate, to actually do something like that.
As a 70 YO, I can assure you that most people in their 60s still have most of the marble they were born with. Hard to give them a pass based on age RIP.
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In comment 14848167 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 14848055 Eli Wilson said:
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As this couple in Arizona did. Link - ( New Window )
I try to be compassionate, and empathetic, but these people did not even have COVID-19. They had nothing, no symptoms, but were worried about getting sick so they drank fish tank cleaner as a preventative, not even as a treatment (which would have had the same result).
This is what I'd call Darwin's theory in action. No offense.
It was incredible stupid thing to do but I still have some empathy for an elderly couple that obviously aren't too bright but felt that alone, scared, and desperate, to actually do something like that.
As a 70 YO, I can assure you that most people in their 60s still have most of the marble they were born with. Hard to give them a pass based on age RIP.
Of course, I'm past 60 myself. My point wasn't they were too old to to be expected to know better, but instead was that even thought they were stupid, I still had empathy for them.
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In comment 14848167 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 14848055 Eli Wilson said:
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As this couple in Arizona did. Link - ( New Window )
I try to be compassionate, and empathetic, but these people did not even have COVID-19. They had nothing, no symptoms, but were worried about getting sick so they drank fish tank cleaner as a preventative, not even as a treatment (which would have had the same result).
This is what I'd call Darwin's theory in action. No offense.
It was incredible stupid thing to do but I still have some empathy for an elderly couple that obviously aren't too bright but felt that alone, scared, and desperate, to actually do something like that.
As a 70 YO, I can assure you that most people in their 60s still have most of the marble they were born with. Hard to give them a pass based on age RIP.
These people probably panicked because they spend all their time on websites kicking around doomsday scenario's (ha ha).
Today is a very positive day. Major funding bill coming, improved news from Italy and other places, stocks way up, and the Fed completely committed to doing whatever it takes.
For Chelsey Earnest it was the eyes that became the single most important sign as she and other staff at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington, struggled with the new coronavirus that was sweeping the nursing home even before it became feared across the country."It's something that I witnessed in all of them (the patients). They have, like ... allergy eyes. The white part of the eye is not red. It's more like they have red eye shadow on the outside of their eyes," Earnest said.
The American Academy of Ophthalmology sent an alert to its members Sunday evening that there are reports Covid-19 can lead to conjunctivitis -- which can lead to a reddening of and around the eyes. It warned ophthalmologists to protect their mouth, nose and eyes when seeing patients who could be infected.
Eye issues are not on the list of symptoms being circulated by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that stresses a high fever, dry cough and shortness of breath, though the list is not all-inclusive.
Earnest tracked those symptoms, too. But for her and her colleagues at the Life Care Center and admitting doctors at a nearby hospital, the eyes became a sign that coronavirus had struck, she told CNN.
"We've had patients that just had the red eyes as the only symptom that we saw and go to the hospital and pass away," she said.
"I've even had the disaster medical control physician say, 'Do they have the red eyes?' And I will say yes. And he'll say, 'I'll find you a bed.' It's just something about this, the way that it affects these patients."
Link - ( New Window )
I really don't understand why he would think that. If the other states have more time doing social distancing, self-isolating, etc., then wouldn't they have lower stats?
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As this couple in Arizona did. Link - ( New Window )
I try to be compassionate, and empathetic, but these people did not even have COVID-19. They had nothing, no symptoms, but were worried about getting sick so they drank fish tank cleaner as a preventative, not even as a treatment (which would have had the same result).
This is what I'd call Darwin's theory in action. No offense.
I saw that on Reddit and the article was ridiculous. Like you have no idea what interactions it has, dosage, etc etc. Also its selfish to go take it when you don't even have it. Supplies aren't unlimited. How did these people make it as long as they did and they have kids so Darwin lost out on this round.
I used to think only NY was looking like its going to get overrun, but now it seems like any place with super high population density centers. This might change the way we think about working, with people working farther from home, but with liberal work from home policies. Personally I'd love to have 3 days in office and 2 days at home.
New York is exploding with new cases, with the apex of cases now predicted to be within 2 to 3 weeks. The projection is also that New York will need 30,000 ventilators that they currently do not have. [/quote]
The explosion of cases is most likely the result of the exploding numbers of new tests. Which is also probably responsible for the lowering of the fatality rate and it should drop the hospitalization rate as well. So it might take a couple of day to figure out what the numbers really mean.
I think you can count on this happening. We've been heading in that direction anyway, and this will accelerate it. Younger workers prefer working remotely, and older workers being forced to do it for the first time may find it more suitable, too. And of course, companies can save a ton of money on office space.
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Also its selfish to go take it when you don't even have it. Supplies aren't unlimited
No, but it is shellfish.
Sorry, I'll show myself out...
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Stupid, yes, but grabbing an old bottle of aquarium cleaner off their shelf and self administering isn't selfish.
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Also its selfish to go take it when you don't even have it. Supplies aren't unlimited
No, but it is shellfish.
Sorry, I'll show myself out...
Chris for the win
New York is exploding with new cases, with the apex of cases now predicted to be within 2 to 3 weeks. The projection is also that New York will need 30,000 ventilators that they currently do not have.
The explosion of cases is most likely the result of the exploding numbers of new tests. Which is also probably responsible for the lowering of the fatality rate and it should drop the hospitalization rate as well. So it might take a couple of day to figure out what the numbers really mean. [/quote]
I wonder if they are basing that on the hard data, or the projected rates of hospitalization based on the likelihood of unknown cases. I mean I feel like we have a grasp that the amount of unknown cases is somewhere between 25-50 percent so even if they don't need 30,000 they are still short regardless.
Healthcare workers around the country have expressed concern about difficulties in attaining enough critical supplies, such as masks, gloves and ventilators, to deal with the influx of patients suffering from the highly contagious virus.
Ford said it will work with 3M (MMM) to produce a new kind of Powered Air-Purifying Respirator for healthcare workers, while also helping to increase production of 3M's current respirator device.
A PAPR has a clear mask that fits over the face. Air is drawn in through a tube connected to a pump that filters the air. The PAPR will be made using parts from both Ford and 3M, the automaker said, including fans used in the Ford F-150's optional ventilated seats. Ford is also working with companies that make batteries for power tools to find a battery that will provide a desired eight hour operating life on a single charge.
Ford (F) said it is exploring the possibility of producing the devices at one of its Michigan factories. 3M will also make the respirators at its own factory, Ford said.
Ford also announced that it's working with GE Healthcare to increase production of ventilators, sophisticated air pumps needed by some critically ill coronavirus patients. It is not clear exactly how Ford will help GE to make more ventilators.
"Working with 3M and GE, we have empowered our teams of engineers and designers to be scrappy and creative to quickly help scale up production of this vital equipment," Ford CEO Jim Hackett said in the company's announcement. "We've been in regular dialogue with federal, state and local officials to understand the areas of greatest needs."
The automaker also said it will work with the United Auto Workers Union to assemble clear plastic face shields that protect people from possibly infectious bodily fluids. The Ford-designed masks are being tested at Detroit-area hospitals. They could be used by healthcare workers, but also others, such as store clerks, who must regularly deal with the public.
Ford is also using 3D printers at its Advanced Manufacturing Center to create disposable air-filtering respirator masks. Once approved, Ford said, the company could initially 1,000 masks per month but hopes to increase production as quickly as possible....
Other major US automakers have also made similar announcements.
General Motors (GM) said last Friday that it was going to work with Ventec Life Systems to help increase its production of ventilators for hospital patients. On Monday, the two companies announced that Ventec "is now planning exponentially higher ventilator production as fast as possible" as a result of the partnership.
GM said it is also looking into producing the devices at its Kokomo, Indiana, electronics assembly plant.
Ford has been coordinating with GM to ensure that the companies' efforts don't put a strain on any particular suppliers or other companies and hinder the goal of increasing production as much as possible, said Jim Baumbick, Ford's vice president for enterprise product line management.
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has also said on Twitter that his company could make ventilators if needed.
Link - ( New Window )
Still hanging stable at 1.2% mortality rate (of known cases). So who knows the real number, but it could be 1% or lower
Ya think?
The department also said that over 2,400 cops, or about 7% of the entire force, called out sick Monday, double the daily average.
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.
Ya think?
It was funny, I posted that then came back and the posts above me were gone. I thought I was going crazy at first, then I figured out what happened.
I hope you are right but I wouldn't dismiss that 1M figure. People still don't fully grasp the impact and devastation this is going to have on our hospitals and what that entails.
It is incredibly dangerous to run a hospital without any ICU beds available, among many other issues they will be facing.
Where are your #s from? Here they have 667 deaths, of which 114 are new.
Tracker for US - ( New Window )
Not going to lie, I am a little worried. I am the last person to go to the doctor and the last person to go to the hospital. I have no had a physical in over 5 years. I think that is all going to change now. I called my primary care, he said he will give me a call back as he is swamped right now.
Not going to lie, I am a little worried. I am the last person to go to the doctor and the last person to go to the hospital. I have no had a physical in over 5 years. I think that is all going to change now. I called my primary care, he said he will give me a call back as he is swamped right now.
Man that sucks Tommy -- I hope you recover from this and my thoughts and sympathy are with you.
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morning, morale is low in the Police Department. We have received (1) mask and (1) 6 oz bottle of hand sanitizer. We were told that is all we are going to get (it is NOT enough). I used the mask the first day of work after I got it. Re-used it the 2nd day before it got soaked in the rain. There were 2 Confirmed cases in my Command when I went to bed at 8:30am. Woke up a hour ago sweating, tightness in chest and if I take a deep breath I begin to have a dry cough. Checked my phone and saw a bunch of texts, there are now 10 confirmed cases at my Command (up from 2 from this AM). There are 6 others out sick all with varying symptoms.
Not going to lie, I am a little worried. I am the last person to go to the doctor and the last person to go to the hospital. I have no had a physical in over 5 years. I think that is all going to change now. I called my primary care, he said he will give me a call back as he is swamped right now.
Man that sucks Tommy -- I hope you recover from this and my thoughts and sympathy are with you.
+2. Prayers to you. God bless.
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In comment 14848566 TommyWiseau said:
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morning, morale is low in the Police Department. We have received (1) mask and (1) 6 oz bottle of hand sanitizer. We were told that is all we are going to get (it is NOT enough). I used the mask the first day of work after I got it. Re-used it the 2nd day before it got soaked in the rain. There were 2 Confirmed cases in my Command when I went to bed at 8:30am. Woke up a hour ago sweating, tightness in chest and if I take a deep breath I begin to have a dry cough. Checked my phone and saw a bunch of texts, there are now 10 confirmed cases at my Command (up from 2 from this AM). There are 6 others out sick all with varying symptoms.
Not going to lie, I am a little worried. I am the last person to go to the doctor and the last person to go to the hospital. I have no had a physical in over 5 years. I think that is all going to change now. I called my primary care, he said he will give me a call back as he is swamped right now.
Man that sucks Tommy -- I hope you recover from this and my thoughts and sympathy are with you.
+2. Prayers to you. God bless.
And everyone else in your Command.
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how this is going to end up. But last week we were talking about in the neighborhood of 1M people dying in the U.S. That could still happen. But being a month or so into this and having 600 dead with just 21 in the last 24 hours at least gives a glimmer of hope.
Where are your #s from? Here they have 667 deaths, of which 114 are new. Tracker for US - ( New Window )
Numbers come from the continuous graphic on Fox News, which is now at 674/95. They list their source at WHO,CDC,ECDC. NHC. Obviously, they've gone up over the past several hours.
The department also said that over 2,400 cops, or about 7% of the entire force, called out sick Monday, double the daily average.
Why is this publicized??
All sympathy to those on the front line with no ppe. it makes no sense to give out this info. It emboldens those who would commit crime.
Between 2008 and 2019, total household consumption increased by $2 trillion; total household debt increased by $1.4 trillion. So, if 70-percent of consumer spending was financed by debt, how do we think we have any way to rapidly grow ourselves out of what we're facing?
With global trade coming to a screeching halt, prices are going to go up, while expected incomes will fall.
We were going to hit a pretty nasty recession; now we have another one to worry about.
Not going to lie, I am a little worried. I am the last person to go to the doctor and the last person to go to the hospital. I have no had a physical in over 5 years. I think that is all going to change now. I called my primary care, he said he will give me a call back as he is swamped right now.
Good luck Tommy. Prayers to you and the others.
Between 2008 and 2019, total household consumption increased by $2 trillion; total household debt increased by $1.4 trillion. So, if 70-percent of consumer spending was financed by debt, how do we think we have any way to rapidly grow ourselves out of what we're facing?
With global trade coming to a screeching halt, prices are going to go up, while expected incomes will fall.
We were going to hit a pretty nasty recession; now we have another one to worry about.
I think we are already in a recession
We are in a downturn officially, though.
Not going to lie, I am a little worried. I am the last person to go to the doctor and the last person to go to the hospital. I have no had a physical in over 5 years. I think that is all going to change now. I called my primary care, he said he will give me a call back as he is swamped right now.
Tommy... please get yourself tested ASAP. If your PCP doesn't respond, call 211, police union, connections in EMS, whatever. First responders should have priority. Not a religious man, but I'm praying for you.
The basic idea is risk stratification. I did a word search on this thread and nothing. Here are the basics. The severity, hospitlization, and mortality rate is overwhelmingly amongt the sick and elderly. Italian segmented mortality data supports this (Katz NY Times Op-Ed).
The approach is much more surgical in that this vulnerable group should be completely isolated in their homes with food, supplies, medicines brought to them. That the current loose gen pop social isolation actually will increase the spread to the vulnerable group. Whereas if you isolate the vulnerable, they can be protected much better and the delivery costs of supporting the vulnerable isolation would be a fraction of the economic impact we're experiencing...
I'm not looking backwards - don't want to debate any past actions, preparedness, or decisions. Looking forward, I hope we move forward with something like this, the data supports it.
"Dr. David Katz's Flavor-Full Diet: Use Your Tastebuds to Lose Pounds and Inches with this Scientifically Proven Plan!"
Why is this person piping up as an expert. Infectious disease is not his field.
The basic idea is risk stratification. I did a word search on this thread and nothing. Here are the basics. The severity, hospitlization, and mortality rate is overwhelmingly amongt the sick and elderly. Italian segmented mortality data supports this (Katz NY Times Op-Ed).
The approach is much more surgical in that this vulnerable group should be completely isolated in their homes with food, supplies, medicines brought to them. That the current loose gen pop social isolation actually will increase the spread to the vulnerable group. Whereas if you isolate the vulnerable, they can be protected much better and the delivery costs of supporting the vulnerable isolation would be a fraction of the economic impact we're experiencing...
I'm not looking backwards - don't want to debate any past actions, preparedness, or decisions. Looking forward, I hope we move forward with something like this, the data supports it.
The more I research this, I really am starting to believe in isolated, different approaches. Most of the infections/deaths are in a few big cities. The NYC area dominates the cases and deaths of NYS, as you would guess it should. So places like NYC should have a different, more stringent approach than say upstate. In Texas, where I am, we only have 400 cases out of 25M people (according the Texas HHS website), and 9 deaths. So that is a death rate extremely small, and I probably have more of a chance dying in a car accident going to the liquor store at this point. I point out Texas because it could easily be handled in a different way than NYC. As stated in the quoted test above, getting sections of the country back to work while continuing to focus on the 2 or 4 big trouble spots, could be the best way to go.
No doubt. But its better than a complete shutdown approach for 2 months, which as we've discussed likely leads to Great Depression unemployment levels.
Its not an easy decision at all.
The basic idea is risk stratification. I did a word search on this thread and nothing. Here are the basics. The severity, hospitlization, and mortality rate is overwhelmingly amongt the sick and elderly. Italian segmented mortality data supports this (Katz NY Times Op-Ed).
The approach is much more surgical in that this vulnerable group should be completely isolated in their homes with food, supplies, medicines brought to them. That the current loose gen pop social isolation actually will increase the spread to the vulnerable group. Whereas if you isolate the vulnerable, they can be protected much better and the delivery costs of supporting the vulnerable isolation would be a fraction of the economic impact we're experiencing...
I'm not looking backwards - don't want to debate any past actions, preparedness, or decisions. Looking forward, I hope we move forward with something like this, the data supports it.
This could work, but the issue is there are a fuckton of people in their 50's, 40's, and even 30's and 20's in this country that are in these risk groups.
I have no idea why people point to deaths as a % of cases as some sort of metric. Yes, so many people out there havent been tested and dont have symptoms or mild symptoms... on the other hand, you do realize death is a lagging indicator on a new positive case right? NY was like 12 deaths a week or 10 days ago or something. Now its 210. It can escalate rapidly.
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In Texas, where I am, we only have 400 cases out of 25M people (according the Texas HHS website), and 9 deaths. So that is a death rate extremely small, and I probably have more of a chance dying in a car accident going to the liquor store at this point. I point out Texas because it could easily be handled in a different way than NYC. As stated in the quoted test above, getting sections of the country back to work while continuing to focus on the 2 or 4 big trouble spots, could be the best way to go.
I have no idea why people point to deaths as a % of cases as some sort of metric. Yes, so many people out there havent been tested and dont have symptoms or mild symptoms... on the other hand, you do realize death is a lagging indicator on a new positive case right? NY was like 12 deaths a week or 10 days ago or something. Now its 210. It can escalate rapidly.
I guess I am missing your point MAB. 25M people, 12K or so tested, 400 or so cases, 9 deaths. Of course you never wnat to see people get sick from something, but these don't seem alarming to me yet. Is your point that its a matter of time before all the states numbers look like NYC? I'm not being flippant, I just am trying to understand. Lots of places have a lot less people/per area than NYC, and a lot more open space, so perhaps things and outcomes are different?
It is directly from a Monroe, New York doctor (Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko) and offers the most encouraging news I have read to date.
Link - ( New Window )
All in all, in kind of talking/ shouting over to the other people waiting, the thing which was common among all of us was the severe exhaustion. Where you feel ok one moment, and then you are laying down the next for a few hours. Headache and stomach issues too. A few people were coughing (so far I haven't really had that other than what I'd consider "normal"). All of us got the flu test. All of us were negative.
So I'll stay where I am until I find out for sure.
It is directly from a Monroe, New York doctor (Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko) and offers the most encouraging news I have read to date. Link - ( New Window )
Wow, this is good news
Can it really be this simple to treat? Where did you find this?
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In comment 14848691 PatersonPlank said:
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In Texas, where I am, we only have 400 cases out of 25M people (according the Texas HHS website), and 9 deaths. So that is a death rate extremely small, and I probably have more of a chance dying in a car accident going to the liquor store at this point. I point out Texas because it could easily be handled in a different way than NYC. As stated in the quoted test above, getting sections of the country back to work while continuing to focus on the 2 or 4 big trouble spots, could be the best way to go.
I have no idea why people point to deaths as a % of cases as some sort of metric. Yes, so many people out there havent been tested and dont have symptoms or mild symptoms... on the other hand, you do realize death is a lagging indicator on a new positive case right? NY was like 12 deaths a week or 10 days ago or something. Now its 210. It can escalate rapidly.
I guess I am missing your point MAB. 25M people, 12K or so tested, 400 or so cases, 9 deaths. Of course you never wnat to see people get sick from something, but these don't seem alarming to me yet. Is your point that its a matter of time before all the states numbers look like NYC? I'm not being flippant, I just am trying to understand. Lots of places have a lot less people/per area than NYC, and a lot more open space, so perhaps things and outcomes are different?
We are now 3 months in from the first confirmed case (Jan. 21). We only have estimates of total actual infections — it could be 5X actual vs. confirmed cases, it could by 50X times actual vs. confirmed cases, we don’t know. What we do know is that deaths are incredibly low —about 2 deaths per 1 million US citizens (700 deaths out of 350 million people). Yes, it’s still early in the predicted curve, but of course keeping an eye on the number of total deaths matters — avoiding mass death is why we have taken such catastrophic economic measures. And as such, we should be continuing to evaluate whether the models that drove these measures are in fact proving to be true.
The basic idea is risk stratification. I did a word search on this thread and nothing. Here are the basics. The severity, hospitlization, and mortality rate is overwhelmingly amongt the sick and elderly. Italian segmented mortality data supports this (Katz NY Times Op-Ed).
The approach is much more surgical in that this vulnerable group should be completely isolated in their homes with food, supplies, medicines brought to them. That the current loose gen pop social isolation actually will increase the spread to the vulnerable group. Whereas if you isolate the vulnerable, they can be protected much better and the delivery costs of supporting the vulnerable isolation would be a fraction of the economic impact we're experiencing...
I'm not looking backwards - don't want to debate any past actions, preparedness, or decisions. Looking forward, I hope we move forward with something like this, the data supports it.
Thanks for posting this article, it makes a lot of sense. Its funny b/c my mom, who also graduated from Yale and worked at Yale New Haven Hospital (not in infectious disease) said to me a couple of weeks ago that this is how we should approach this public health problem. It makes perfect sense! I wonder if anyone in the public health and government are looking at this?
It is directly from a Monroe, New York doctor (Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko) and offers the most encouraging news I have read to date. Link - ( New Window )
Wow. That is fantastic if accurate.
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not seen this posted before.
It is directly from a Monroe, New York doctor (Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko) and offers the most encouraging news I have read to date. Link - ( New Window )
Wow. That is fantastic if accurate.
Looks like a winner.
It is directly from a Monroe, New York doctor (Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko) and offers the most encouraging news I have read to date. Link - ( New Window )
I just read the whole rundown of his trial. It's hard to tell because he hasn't tested most these people for covid 19. He's sent 14 tests out and 9 came back confirmed. Generally I'd fully believe the guy because he is a doctor, but reading about him he sounds a bit out there. Is he trying to game the numbers, only getting people tested he thinks definitely have it? If not this sounds like the real deal though.
It is directly from a Monroe, New York doctor (Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko) and offers the most encouraging news I have read to date. Link - ( New Window )
Thanks, YANK. Very encouraging
Well considering that is how the CDC believes it is spread, it isn't unreasonable. Are they short staffed right now?
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is sending officers back to work. One guy is 7 days since getting a positive test of COVID-19. They said since he is not coughing anymore he needs to go back to work. Can they really be this stupid?
Well considering that is how the CDC believes it is spread, it isn't unreasonable. Are they short staffed right now?
There is approx 36,000 of us. They can't be that short staffed.. yet.
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I knew my take wouldn't be popular so I just didn't post. But now healthcare experts like Yale's Dr Katz are providing alternative reccomendations along the lines of what I was thinking (Katz NY Times Op-Ed) and Cuomo has referenced Katz's plan as interesting and worth evaluation.
The basic idea is risk stratification. I did a word search on this thread and nothing. Here are the basics. The severity, hospitlization, and mortality rate is overwhelmingly amongt the sick and elderly. Italian segmented mortality data supports this (Katz NY Times Op-Ed).
The approach is much more surgical in that this vulnerable group should be completely isolated in their homes with food, supplies, medicines brought to them. That the current loose gen pop social isolation actually will increase the spread to the vulnerable group. Whereas if you isolate the vulnerable, they can be protected much better and the delivery costs of supporting the vulnerable isolation would be a fraction of the economic impact we're experiencing...
I'm not looking backwards - don't want to debate any past actions, preparedness, or decisions. Looking forward, I hope we move forward with something like this, the data supports it.
The more I research this, I really am starting to believe in isolated, different approaches. Most of the infections/deaths are in a few big cities. The NYC area dominates the cases and deaths of NYS, as you would guess it should. So places like NYC should have a different, more stringent approach than say upstate. In Texas, where I am, we only have 400 cases out of 25M people (according the Texas HHS website), and 9 deaths. So that is a death rate extremely small, and I probably have more of a chance dying in a car accident going to the liquor store at this point. I point out Texas because it could easily be handled in a different way than NYC. As stated in the quoted test above, getting sections of the country back to work while continuing to focus on the 2 or 4 big trouble spots, could be the best way to go.
That's what I think. Isolate the elderly and at risk population for now, let everyone else get back to normal life. Almost everywhere, the hospitals should be able to handle the percentage of those who have serious symptoms. When it passes, let us geezers party.
This could work, but the issue is there are a fuckton of people in their 50's, 40's, and even 30's and 20's in this country that are in these risk groups.
Yes, this isn’t ageist. Cancer, respiratory, diabetes. Whatever the data says are the in the mortality stats we protect.
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In comment 14848792 TommyWiseau said:
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is sending officers back to work. One guy is 7 days since getting a positive test of COVID-19. They said since he is not coughing anymore he needs to go back to work. Can they really be this stupid?
Well considering that is how the CDC believes it is spread, it isn't unreasonable. Are they short staffed right now?
There is approx 36,000 of us. They can't be that short staffed.. yet.
Sorry to hear Tommy. All I can say for myself and how I've handled it, whenever you have a down moment, try to rest and take tylenol. If you have a "mild" case what seems to be happening is you will feel like a truck hit you and you rest, but then you rebound and have energy and can get things done until you hit the wall again. Now, more serious/severe obviously is a different thing.
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not seen this posted before.
It is directly from a Monroe, New York doctor (Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko) and offers the most encouraging news I have read to date. Link - ( New Window )
I just read the whole rundown of his trial. It's hard to tell because he hasn't tested most these people for covid 19. He's sent 14 tests out and 9 came back confirmed. Generally I'd fully believe the guy because he is a doctor, but reading about him he sounds a bit out there. Is he trying to game the numbers, only getting people tested he thinks definitely have it? If not this sounds like the real deal though.
To much the same effect, see https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-drugs-are-helping-our-coronavirus-patients-11584899438?mod=trending_now_2 .
I believe the number of Americans over 60 is something like 70M, then add in the untold amount of Americans with underlying health issues.
The problem with just isolating the vulnerable, is they are vulnerable. Many need care, assistance, attention. So who would be taking that duty on? The younger, healthier, less vulnerable. Who then are carriers if the infection rate isn't dramatically decreased.
And if Dr Zelenkos cocktail works then we could be out of the woods by spring.
The devil, though, is in the details. My live-in is in the at risk. I am not. Across the globe both groups are all intermingled. How do you sort them out? The sheer numbers of at risk still make it a huge number of people isolated. It's going to be tough to sort them all out.
But it is a start. Heads far smarter than mine can worry the details. It's also painfully obvious that complete shutdown for months is not an option. A short spurt to buy time for supplies/research/knowledge to catch up and then on to winding down the shutdown and on to a rational prevention management. We are not going to keep everyone safe. It has to be a balancing act of minimizing the damage of the virus vs minimizing the damage to the economy.
Matt do you have a fever?
All in all, in kind of talking/ shouting over to the other people waiting, the thing which was common among all of us was the severe exhaustion. Where you feel ok one moment, and then you are laying down the next for a few hours. Headache and stomach issues too. A few people were coughing (so far I haven't really had that other than what I'd consider "normal"). All of us got the flu test. All of us were negative.
So I'll stay where I am until I find out for sure.
And if Dr Zelenkos cocktail works then we could be out of the woods by spring.
I think this idea is gaining steam because there are some faulty assumptions being made:
1) Herd immunity without a vaccine is a) achievable and b) achievable before hospitals get overwhelmed.
2) Reinfection is not possible
3) The number of people under 60 requiring hospitalization will be low enough to keep hospitals under capacity. This is questionable if we open the virus up to everyone under 60 all at once.
People are starting to see the economic casualties and are ignoring the potential downside of this new strategy: catastrophic loss of life and then needing to start all over with this distancing thing.
Key takeaway: they believe the virus has already been widely spread throughout the UK since January — and has already infected as much as half of the population of the UK, with mostly asymptomatic and mild effects. Why is that important? Widespread community immunity and no big pending tsunami of hospitalization and death.
How does it apply to the US? The virus has been in the US by early January, at the very latest. It follows that the spread is wider and our community immunity is broader.
I was unable to link the article/study, but if someone can do so, great.
People are struggling to keep 6ft of distance at the grocery store lines, but we're going to trust the public to maintain a strategic quarantine where some are free to do what they want and others need to go into isolation. Yet the at risk receive care from the infected? It's a much more risky, complex strategy to implement and the upside outcome is a bad guess at this point. In fact with SARS, protective immunity is only temporary.
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This business of everyone staying at home isn’t going to work. You’re correct about the number of Americans over 60 but that’s still a far more manageable number than all Americans, especially because many over 60 probably aren’t working. This idea of stratification, at least as far as anything I’ve heard so far, seems like the only approach that will work.
And if Dr Zelenkos cocktail works then we could be out of the woods by spring.
I think this idea is gaining steam because there are some faulty assumptions being made:
1) Herd immunity without a vaccine is a) achievable and b) achievable before hospitals get overwhelmed.
2) Reinfection is not possible
3) The number of people under 60 requiring hospitalization will be low enough to keep hospitals under capacity. This is questionable if we open the virus up to everyone under 60 all at once.
People are starting to see the economic casualties and are ignoring the potential downside of this new strategy: catastrophic loss of life and then needing to start all over with this distancing thing.
Reinfection is most likely not possible. The few that looked like reinfections were actually faulty tests.
Dr Sanjay Gupta - ( New Window )
I have like 9 thermometers that all tell me something different, so I go with an average since I think they all suck. I was around 99.2, which isn't technically considered a fever (they say 99.6), but since I have had this going since last week, and I did have confirmed cases in my office I was given the test.
Consider another issue: you will probably have to extend the targeted isolation to young children (probably kids younger than kindergarden). Though death rates are minimal among this group, it seems that doctors are nervous about this group. But, this will mean parents having to stay home. But, since older generations are quarantined, they cannot help provide child services. There is a non-insubstantial number of elderly that provide significant childcare benefits in the family.
So, a targeted quarantine will still mean a not insubstantial number of adults may have to take time off of work.
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Did you have a fever?
I ask because I was sick for three days two weeks ago. Didn’t go to work Wednesday through Friday. No fever but I couldn’t move Wednesday and had stomach issues and a headache. Had no fever though. They tested me for flu anyway and I was negative
I have like 9 thermometers that all tell me something different, so I go with an average since I think they all suck. I was around 99.2, which isn't technically considered a fever (they say 99.6), but since I have had this going since last week, and I did have confirmed cases in my office I was given the test.
@ASlavitt
March 24 COVID Update: Based on calls with the WH, the Senate, testing companies, hospitals in Seattle, and people who have launched new capabilities.
March 24 update - ( New Window )
But I know this business of everyone staying home isn’t long going to hold and it’s already produced a depression like scenario on the economy. And it probably isn’t going to work anyway as it’s probably already too late to be effective. Besides, the whole concept of social distances is just to flatten the curve anyway - which remember - flattening the curve doesn’t reduce overall infection it just spreads them out. So stratification is just a more practical means to. similar end.
+11,074 new one's today
775 deaths
+222 new deaths
We will bypass Italy by Saturday
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In comment 14848858 Gmen1982 said:
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Did you have a fever?
I ask because I was sick for three days two weeks ago. Didn’t go to work Wednesday through Friday. No fever but I couldn’t move Wednesday and had stomach issues and a headache. Had no fever though. They tested me for flu anyway and I was negative
I have like 9 thermometers that all tell me something different, so I go with an average since I think they all suck. I was around 99.2, which isn't technically considered a fever (they say 99.6), but since I have had this going since last week, and I did have confirmed cases in my office I was given the test.
Honestly, the list of symptoms that this thing has is pretty much everything under the sun. It's a hypochondriac's nightmare. Some people have 102 fever or higher (I didn't), others cough, others have the runs, others throw up, some literally feel nothing and have no idea, some (younger people/kids) might just get sniffles. And with spring starting you will have allergies in the mix too. I think honestly the best thing for (the world) really is to develop that anti-body test and do everything in their power to test as many people as possible prior to the summer to see how the fall season is going to go. I know this isn't the flu, but the whole thing about the Spanish Flu is that it hit, it died down in the warm weather, and came roaring back in the fall during flu season and killed thousands.
I just know my own body. I get the flu shot every year. I can go an entire year and might get a cold once and a fever rarely. And the times I do get a fever, I rebound quickly, usually within 24 hours I bounce back. This thing kicked my ass for a week and my symptoms were "mild".
I really hope these new treatment combinations do work and are vetted by the proper medical experts. If they have a treatment that will keep the seriously sick off respirators as they devise a vaccine (which is going to be needed badly), then maybe we can start to slowly come out of this and get back to normal life.
We can handle this while simultaneously getting sections of the economy up and running again until they are all back up with minimal/equal amounts of fatalities that are to be expected from this outbreak.
I think the plan should be to finish out a short self sheltered period of about two weeks from yesterday, and then start implementing return to work policies for different sections of the economy piece by piece based on some sort of a ranking system due to the fundamental necessity of each market. We should keep high risk groups quarantined with strict visitor regulations until there’s a decent enough drug to combat the symptoms and eventually a vaccine.
If you step back and look at this thing from an economic view point mixed with a logical viewpoint on the spread of the virus, you have to agree that staying home until a cure and or vaccine is created from scratch would be absolutely devastating to the world economy.
As soon as events, small businesses and schools started closing for short periods of time I began looking at my clients cash flows and very quickly was able to confirm what I had suspected in the back of my mind, none of them had the retained earnings/savings accompanied by quickly diminishing revenues to last more than a few months. We quickly began filing for SBA loans and expanded LOC’s.
Whether or not they were granted these loans etc doesn’t matter overall if the world isn’t at the very least back to I’d say 70% normal economic functionality. This is affecting every single industry one way or another. Because in the end, they are all connected in a macro sense.
Whether we like it or not, we are going to have to go back to work. Quicker then we would like. We just absolutely have to drive the point home to low information people, the severity of not doing their part and taking this thing fucking seriously.
I hope everyone one on BBI is keeping happy and healthy. Stay vigilant folks.
That said, we're accelerating the economic malaise we've been seeing for a long time. A lot of structural issues are being brought to the fore, and it has the potential to be bad.
But think about the costs of economic dislocation from death and lack of productivity. From 2015 to 2018, the opioid crisis (about 100,000 overdose deaths) led to $2.5 trillion in lost money.
So, quarantining loses tangible monies, but so does issues with illnesses.
That said, we're accelerating the economic malaise we've been seeing for a long time. A lot of structural issues are being brought to the fore, and it has the potential to be bad.
But think about the costs of economic dislocation from death and lack of productivity. From 2015 to 2018, the opioid crisis (about 100,000 overdose deaths) led to $2.5 trillion in lost money.
So, quarantining loses tangible monies, but so does issues with illnesses.
I agree with this totally. That’s why we need to do our best to implement a reigniting of the economy in a way that the death toll mirrors what is to be expected (as best as possible) whether or not we stay in quarantine.
Obviously we won’t be able to keep the numbers perfectly in line with whatever the projections are, but we should do our best to keep them very close to projections.
Getting the message out to not flood the healthcare facilities with a case of the sniffles is where we need to start. There should be an absolute barrage of every medium of advertising that people are NOT to run to the hospital or even doctors, unless they are in unmanageable pain and discomfort. People need to suck it up when it comes to basic sicknesses. As long as you don’t have a sore throat that is killing you, or a cough and shortness of breath that is smothering you, you should stay home and fight it the old fashioned way. Rest, soup, and OTC meds.
We can do this, I know we can.
That said, we're accelerating the economic malaise we've been seeing for a long time. A lot of structural issues are being brought to the fore, and it has the potential to be bad.
But think about the costs of economic dislocation from death and lack of productivity. From 2015 to 2018, the opioid crisis (about 100,000 overdose deaths) led to $2.5 trillion in lost money.
So, quarantining loses tangible monies, but so does issues with illnesses.
+1
Quote:
That's what I think. Isolate the elderly and at risk population for now, let everyone else get back to normal life. Almost everywhere, the hospitals should be able to handle the percentage of those who have serious symptoms. When it passes, let us geezers party.
I believe the number of Americans over 60 is something like 70M, then add in the untold amount of Americans with underlying health issues.
The problem with just isolating the vulnerable, is they are vulnerable. Many need care, assistance, attention. So who would be taking that duty on? The younger, healthier, less vulnerable. Who then are carriers if the infection rate isn't dramatically decreased.
95% of the people I know between 60-85 don't need assistance. We can take care of ourselves fine. Most of the people at risk have family members/friends/help groups who can take care of their basic needs. Food can be picked up or delivered. Some of us olddtimers can actually use the internets, lol. We will practice social distancing, we won't lock ourselves in a closet. And we're only talking about a few months.
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The devil, though, is in the details. My live-in is in the at risk. I am not. Across the globe both groups are all intermingled. How do you sort them out? The sheer numbers of at risk still make it a huge number of people isolated. It's going to be tough to sort them all out.
People are struggling to keep 6ft of distance at the grocery store lines, but we're going to trust the public to maintain a strategic quarantine where some are free to do what they want and others need to go into isolation. Yet the at risk receive care from the infected? It's a much more risky, complex strategy to implement and the upside outcome is a bad guess at this point. In fact with SARS, protective immunity is only temporary.
I've been on a couple of grocery lines. Most of us get on line with a shopping cart. The carts pretty much account for 6 feet between me and the nearest person.
+11,074 new one's today
775 deaths
+222 new deaths
We will bypass Italy by Saturday
We will bypass Italy in what regard? Total cases, deaths? We have more than 5 times the population of Italy, so if we have the same number of deaths/cases we only have 20% of their problem. Gotta compare apples to apples. By Saturday we'll know how the meds are working in NY and have a much clearer picture of the risks going forward.
+11,074 new one's today
775 deaths
+222 new deaths
We will bypass Italy by Saturday
I saw an amazing stat, maybe everyone else realized this but I didnt:
Hubei China - 67,800 confirmed cases
NY - 26,300
NJ and all other states - 3K or lower
What a massive difference
Last night the city of Atlanta ordered shutdown. Tonight large governances in the area followed suit.
Basically, Atlanta is shutdown.
Quote:
54,808 total cases
+11,074 new one's today
775 deaths
+222 new deaths
We will bypass Italy by Saturday
I saw an amazing stat, maybe everyone else realized this but I didnt:
Hubei China - 67,800 confirmed cases
NY - 26,300
NJ and all other states - 3K or lower
What a massive difference
PP, I think NJ is about to explode with cases
Unless the people where you live have an ass that's 36 inches, it's not even close...
+11,074 new one's today
775 deaths
+222 new deaths
We will bypass Italy by Saturday
They have 60 million and we have 330 million. "Bypass" in what? Raw numbers?
The upshot is what a lot of people here have already been arguing, that dividing deaths by total positives is yielding a morbidity number that may be orders of magnitude too high. People are going to die, this is a serious public health emergency, but this isn’t the Black Death and we’re probably driving the economy into the ground by treating it as if it is. The numbers from Italy are very bad if you’re over a certain age and have comorbidities, but otherwise chances are overwhelming that you’ll get this virus and still live. The authors noted above present compelling data to suggest that the actual mortality rate could be as low as to .01 to .05.
And on the kids, look, there’s enough fear and panic already let’s not give the impression though that kids are an emerging concern. They aren’t immune, and of course we should protect them, but there’s no data or science or reason to suggest children are particularly at risk. This is primarily killing people over 60 and with comorbidities. Not that this isn’t a concern - of course it is - but our approach to dealing with this needs to be based on what’s reasonable and what’s doable.
Let me Google that for you... - ( New Window )
But, given the biased samples that we know we have, and given the inability to model the impact of the virus on the human body for any longer than 3 weeks, which would you prefer. Higher Type I or Type II error?
Unless the people where you live have an ass that's 36 inches, it's not even close...
Well you have to build in arm length and stance, as for OTs. If the average is 34" of length and they stand away from their carts, slightly sideways using only one hand, we're pretty close to six feet total space between me and the guy behind me with his cart, pushing it forward and dawdling, looking at candy bars, on his way out.
Usually, the biggest economic cost is not mortality, but morbidity. For instance, look at the economic impacts of diabetes, obesity, and opioids.
That's not engaging in any additional concern. At least for younger children, it seems that one type of error (false negative) is more worrisome than the opposite...
Usually, the biggest economic cost is not mortality, but morbidity. For instance, look at the economic impacts of diabetes, obesity, and opioids.
That's not engaging in any additional concern. At least for younger children, it seems that one type of error (false negative) is more worrisome than the opposite...
Kicker, sorry I haven’t read through all the posts on this thread. I check in in the evening when I have time after the family is asleep and all my work obligations are taken care of. I remember your posts over the years and from what I recall, you are one of the more knowledgeable posters on the site when it comes to numbers, data, etc. Can I ask what your overall view point is, based on the data that’s available, as to whether or not the numbers are misleading in one direction or the other?
I would also appreciate your view point on how you think we should (best guess or hypothesis based on available information) or you would handle the situation at hand. The getting back to work, quarantining of groups, or the entire populations as a whole etc. I have seen your last few posts which all are pretty direct toward certain instances but not really the whole picture if you will.
Thanks for any input you’d like to share. And again, if you laid it out somewhere back on this thread, I apologize I haven’t gone through all the posts.
Quote:
54,808 total cases
+11,074 new one's today
775 deaths
+222 new deaths
We will bypass Italy by Saturday
They have 60 million and we have 330 million. "Bypass" in what? Raw numbers?
In total cases which makes us the new epicenter of the disease
Check out what was written in the WSJ I linked above. I’m admittedly not a data guy or some kind of wonk on public health, but the people who wrote the essay I linked certainly are both and they present a compelling data and fact based case. The more I read the more I think we’re approaching this the wrong way based on bad assumptions. The mortality rate in Italy isn’t going to land anywhere near the 8% reported in some headlines. Look at the Bloomberg article linked below for their look at the numbers in Italy. Again, not good news if you’re infected and around 80 years old, but otherwise, not so bad.
In the face of this very serious and very difficult problem we need to make difficult decisions and our best course in making these decisions is to be rational.
Bloomberg Italy numbers - ( New Window )
I'll try to explain why I think the numbers are sketchy initially, then I'll give my personal thoughts.
1. I don't think the data are an accurate reflection of the disease profile at this point. It's a small fraction of the population, and it's self-selected (i.e., the data points are the ones with more severe incidences, rather than those who have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic). That means it's hard to accurately draw conclusions at a surface level.
2. We are modelling (forecasting) the impacts of the disease. What's not important is the predictions, but how confident we are in the predictions (the confidence interval). Those have not been published widely, which means that I think predictions are all over the place. From "The Walking Dead" to nothing.
3. Look at the figure below:
We know that, at some point, illnesses ramp up, peak, and then decelerate. Is it a slow ramp up? A quick ramp up? If it's a slow ramp up (the negative skewed graph), it means that the mortality and incidence rates we are calculating are too low. I think it's probably more negative skewed than not, but that can play.
OK, with all of these caveats in place, here is what I have recommended to the regional authority, where I live, who has enlisted some of us to help with the issues.
1. I think mortality rates may be a bit too low now. There have been suggestions that earlier illnesses in Jan and Feb may have been COVID-19, and if we didn't anticipate it, there could have been pneumonia (or other deaths) not attributed to COVID-19. I also think that, over time, we will readjusted mortality rates down, as we get a better indication of who was likely infected (but not tested).
2. As of now, I'm of the opinion that the best option is a shelter in place for 4-8 weeks, followed by a "let it be", Thunderdome, type attitude, followed by an ineffective quarantine. You don't flip a switch on in this atmosphere and economic activity resumes. I think you see a lot of people deciding to self-quarantine (the ones who provide higher economic value, at least). So, even loosening all restrictions would probably bring economic contraction, though not as high as the estimates could be.
3. We were due for a recession; we are due for a serious reset of our economic way-of-life. We are seeing all-time record lows for unemployment. And yet, of the $2 trillion of consumer spending, $1.4 trillion was paid by debt. Credit card debt, credit card defaults, unpaid credit card balances, 30 day mortgage delinquencies are either at all time, post-Great Depression highs, or similar to the levels in 2007-2009. This is not the hallmark of a humming economy; this is a hallmark of an economy that has such odd heaps or regulations, coupled with wealth inequality, coupled with economic behavior that does not track with people's incomes or wealth.
4. If the virus remained mild (basically, the nervousness we felt 10 days ago), I forecasted a double-dip recession. One from the virus, one from the inevitable financial reset. Even though the Fed has offered unlimited QE, this has been essentially the case since 2007. Small business loans have never recovered to pre-2007 levels. Consumers are buying through debt. What happens when this money does not finance any more liquidity? It is likely that, as businesses know the free money will end, they will actually impose stricter lending standards. Whoops, there goes our economy.
And no, neither some physicians are concerned, nor long-term implications, are overly broad. It's a model with uncertainty; those are common in assessing this kind of data. Those would be reasonable assumptions (and not overly hard to model, so not broad). Again, as I've mentioned, what type of error do we think that policymakers and public health experts are choosing right now? Type I or Type II error? Hint. It's Type II, which suggests that with an unknown outcome for children, caution will likely be the chosen alternative.
I'll try to explain why I think the numbers are sketchy initially, then I'll give my personal thoughts.
1. I don't think the data are an accurate reflection of the disease profile at this point. It's a small fraction of the population, and it's self-selected (i.e., the data points are the ones with more severe incidences, rather than those who have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic). That means it's hard to accurately draw conclusions at a surface level.
2. We are modelling (forecasting) the impacts of the disease. What's not important is the predictions, but how confident we are in the predictions (the confidence interval). Those have not been published widely, which means that I think predictions are all over the place. From "The Walking Dead" to nothing.
3. Look at the figure below:
We know that, at some point, illnesses ramp up, peak, and then decelerate. Is it a slow ramp up? A quick ramp up? If it's a slow ramp up (the negative skewed graph), it means that the mortality and incidence rates we are calculating are too low. I think it's probably more negative skewed than not, but that can play.
OK, with all of these caveats in place, here is what I have recommended to the regional authority, where I live, who has enlisted some of us to help with the issues.
1. I think mortality rates may be a bit too low now. There have been suggestions that earlier illnesses in Jan and Feb may have been COVID-19, and if we didn't anticipate it, there could have been pneumonia (or other deaths) not attributed to COVID-19. I also think that, over time, we will readjusted mortality rates down, as we get a better indication of who was likely infected (but not tested).
2. As of now, I'm of the opinion that the best option is a shelter in place for 4-8 weeks, followed by a "let it be", Thunderdome, type attitude, followed by an ineffective quarantine. You don't flip a switch on in this atmosphere and economic activity resumes. I think you see a lot of people deciding to self-quarantine (the ones who provide higher economic value, at least). So, even loosening all restrictions would probably bring economic contraction, though not as high as the estimates could be.
3. We were due for a recession; we are due for a serious reset of our economic way-of-life. We are seeing all-time record lows for unemployment. And yet, of the $2 trillion of consumer spending, $1.4 trillion was paid by debt. Credit card debt, credit card defaults, unpaid credit card balances, 30 day mortgage delinquencies are either at all time, post-Great Depression highs, or similar to the levels in 2007-2009. This is not the hallmark of a humming economy; this is a hallmark of an economy that has such odd heaps or regulations, coupled with wealth inequality, coupled with economic behavior that does not track with people's incomes or wealth.
4. If the virus remained mild (basically, the nervousness we felt 10 days ago), I forecasted a double-dip recession. One from the virus, one from the inevitable financial reset. Even though the Fed has offered unlimited QE, this has been essentially the case since 2007. Small business loans have never recovered to pre-2007 levels. Consumers are buying through debt. What happens when this money does not finance any more liquidity? It is likely that, as businesses know the free money will end, they will actually impose stricter lending standards. Whoops, there goes our economy.
I personally believe (hope), but believe, that this combination of factors will give us just one recession. We are off 30+% from the highs in the market, earnings have been revised down and down. We are now inline with previous recessions and frankly worst than most. Recessions are usually created by unforseen things, and here we have one. I think we do another 10 yr run after we get through this (like after 1973, 1987 and 2008).
All of my posts have acknowledged the lower mortality rates in those groups. There were 2 simple points:
1. Physicians are concerned, and Type II error is more important to minimize in this population (if we are willing to do that for everyone, children always fall more Type II). This hints that even with lower rates, there would be strong consideration for this policy.
2. Even if there are no broad restrictions, people tend to be very risk averse with their children. There was a presumptive COVID-19 teenage death in LA today. How do you think that affects the decision-making of many parents, if they were told they didn't need to quarantine their kids?
Evidence suggests that point 2 holds; look at classroom occupancy rates before schools were closed. Even with (I think) 2 reported deaths in China, people were pulling kids out of school. That's an economic drag. If you have that economic drag and it's going to be known, including them in high risk, quarantine groups may be warranted.
Quote:
A lot of people would probably quibble about my quality here, but I appreciate it. I do work with data daily (also teach data analytics to some of the ding dongs who misapply it, but that's my bad).
I'll try to explain why I think the numbers are sketchy initially, then I'll give my personal thoughts.
1. I don't think the data are an accurate reflection of the disease profile at this point. It's a small fraction of the population, and it's self-selected (i.e., the data points are the ones with more severe incidences, rather than those who have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic). That means it's hard to accurately draw conclusions at a surface level.
2. We are modelling (forecasting) the impacts of the disease. What's not important is the predictions, but how confident we are in the predictions (the confidence interval). Those have not been published widely, which means that I think predictions are all over the place. From "The Walking Dead" to nothing.
3. Look at the figure below:
We know that, at some point, illnesses ramp up, peak, and then decelerate. Is it a slow ramp up? A quick ramp up? If it's a slow ramp up (the negative skewed graph), it means that the mortality and incidence rates we are calculating are too low. I think it's probably more negative skewed than not, but that can play.
OK, with all of these caveats in place, here is what I have recommended to the regional authority, where I live, who has enlisted some of us to help with the issues.
1. I think mortality rates may be a bit too low now. There have been suggestions that earlier illnesses in Jan and Feb may have been COVID-19, and if we didn't anticipate it, there could have been pneumonia (or other deaths) not attributed to COVID-19. I also think that, over time, we will readjusted mortality rates down, as we get a better indication of who was likely infected (but not tested).
2. As of now, I'm of the opinion that the best option is a shelter in place for 4-8 weeks, followed by a "let it be", Thunderdome, type attitude, followed by an ineffective quarantine. You don't flip a switch on in this atmosphere and economic activity resumes. I think you see a lot of people deciding to self-quarantine (the ones who provide higher economic value, at least). So, even loosening all restrictions would probably bring economic contraction, though not as high as the estimates could be.
3. We were due for a recession; we are due for a serious reset of our economic way-of-life. We are seeing all-time record lows for unemployment. And yet, of the $2 trillion of consumer spending, $1.4 trillion was paid by debt. Credit card debt, credit card defaults, unpaid credit card balances, 30 day mortgage delinquencies are either at all time, post-Great Depression highs, or similar to the levels in 2007-2009. This is not the hallmark of a humming economy; this is a hallmark of an economy that has such odd heaps or regulations, coupled with wealth inequality, coupled with economic behavior that does not track with people's incomes or wealth.
4. If the virus remained mild (basically, the nervousness we felt 10 days ago), I forecasted a double-dip recession. One from the virus, one from the inevitable financial reset. Even though the Fed has offered unlimited QE, this has been essentially the case since 2007. Small business loans have never recovered to pre-2007 levels. Consumers are buying through debt. What happens when this money does not finance any more liquidity? It is likely that, as businesses know the free money will end, they will actually impose stricter lending standards. Whoops, there goes our economy.
I personally believe (hope), but believe, that this combination of factors will give us just one recession. We are off 30+% from the highs in the market, earnings have been revised down and down. We are now inline with previous recessions and frankly worst than most. Recessions are usually created by unforseen things, and here we have one. I think we do another 10 yr run after we get through this (like after 1973, 1987 and 2008).
To me, it depends on the severity. If it's quick, people will still have faced up to 4 weeks without pay. Even the proposed stimulus will be a fraction of that for many Americans. They have drawn down debt, probably created more debt income.
If we already had issues with this (again, highs not seen since 2007), where are consumers going to turn? There is a huge demand problem; the supply-chain has cracks that need time to be healed. We have fundamental issues that won't get solved, because the system has not cleared its excesses and warts.
If it's severe, there may be some long-term changes that avoid this.
In your community that guess might be accurate. In lots of other communities the number of older adults who are largely dependent on assistance for food, medication, and general welfare is staggering. In cities like New York, older adult care was a crisis before this.
Take the very small amount of young healthy individuals who are getting seriously ill, multiply that by some order of magnitude if normal social contact is re-introduced too early.
Take the small number of young and middle aged, unhealthy individuals who are getting seriously ill, multiply that by some order of magnitude if normal social contact is re-introduced too early.
Take the supply chain and contact chain for older adults either getting services and supplies delivered, and put it through an exponentially more infected sets of hands, and what the expected rate of infection would be.
Take the rate of infection for the cautious older adult community re-entering social contact, and run it through an exponentially more infected community at large.
Include an exponentially more infected community operating public transit, staffing front offices at the doctor's office, the pharmacy, the grocery store, etc.
I suspect the math models wouldn't support a let rip and try and be careful approach.
3. We were due for a recession; we are due for a serious reset of our economic way-of-life. We are seeing all-time record lows for unemployment. And yet, of the $2 trillion of consumer spending, $1.4 trillion was paid by debt. Credit card debt, credit card defaults, unpaid credit card balances, 30 day mortgage delinquencies are either at all time, post-Great Depression highs, or similar to the levels in 2007-2009. This is not the hallmark of a humming economy; this is a hallmark of an economy that has such odd heaps or regulations, coupled with wealth inequality, coupled with economic behavior that does not track with people's incomes or wealth..
Just looking through the data, and with all due respect because I want to learn....aggregate credit card debt per US household has trailed nominal GDP growth since 2011, the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit First Mortgage Default rates remain below levels prior to the GFC, and the Fed’s US Household debt service ratio is an all-time low (obviously with rates this low and asset values high). Delinquency rates of credit cards at commercial banks are near an all-time low as is the delinquency rate on residential single-family mortgages (according to FRED).
Am I looking at the wrong data?
Debt Service Payments as a % of Disposable Personal Income - ( New Window )
Unless the people where you live have an ass that's 36 inches, it's not even close...
Maybe you should make it out to a grocery store. Even if the cart is 3 feet, with my arms extended to the handle, my face is a good foot or more behind the cart and I leave about 2 feet between the end of the cart and my neighbor's ass. That's 6 feet. Add in the fact that his face is another 6 inches ahead of his ass and he's facing away from me, the math works pretty well. But thanks for your concern.
Wait until May. The stock market is too volatile.
Quote:
3. We were due for a recession; we are due for a serious reset of our economic way-of-life. We are seeing all-time record lows for unemployment. And yet, of the $2 trillion of consumer spending, $1.4 trillion was paid by debt. Credit card debt, credit card defaults, unpaid credit card balances, 30 day mortgage delinquencies are either at all time, post-Great Depression highs, or similar to the levels in 2007-2009. This is not the hallmark of a humming economy; this is a hallmark of an economy that has such odd heaps or regulations, coupled with wealth inequality, coupled with economic behavior that does not track with people's incomes or wealth..
Just looking through the data, and with all due respect because I want to learn....aggregate credit card debt per US household has trailed nominal GDP growth since 2011, the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit First Mortgage Default rates remain below levels prior to the GFC, and the Fed’s US Household debt service ratio is an all-time low (obviously with rates this low and asset values high). Delinquency rates of credit cards at commercial banks are near an all-time low as is the delinquency rate on residential single-family mortgages (according to FRED).
Am I looking at the wrong data? Debt Service Payments as a % of Disposable Personal Income - ( New Window )
You may want to wait until what will probably be a jaw dropping new unemployment claims report tomorrow. I expect it will make a lot of investors get pretty nervous.
Not only was US #1 overall, they were #1 in almost every assessed category: overall, prevention, detection, response, health system, economy, and environmental risk vulnerability (#19 in the last one, #1 in all others)
I linked the PDF of the report. Now I'm not an expert and when I share a report like this someone who is will explain why it's flawed (it was funded by someone with bias, it isn't scientific, etc), so if that's the case, my apology. What would be interesting to me is to see in the aftermath an unbiased party say what should or should not have happened with the response.
The report is critical of almost every country (195 are included) and IMO when you see a report like this and then balance it against the real world you kind of lose faith in anything anyone says.
Global Health Security Index - ( New Window )
Exactly! The question answers itself COVID-19 is nothing like the flu.
many factors IMO:
1. There is a flu vaccine that around 50% of the population in the US take to lessen the impact (even in an ineffective flu shot year)
2. COVID-19 symptoms are worse and more people require hospitalization
3. COVID-19 is more contagious (2 and 3 could be impacted by 1 - for example when we have a COVID-19 vaccine then it may be more of a reasonable comparison to seasonal flu)
4. Seasonal flu due to some factors mentioned, is more spread out - IOW - the curve is already flattened, so there is no spike in cases (normally) that overwhelms the healthcare system - and even with the flat curve you can easily see the annual death toll is still high
yes. politicians buying first before the Pres signs it LOL
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I am not comparing the seasonal flu to Covid-19 in terms of the virus itself, but the raw #'s of the seasonal flu are staggering... why do we not hear of the hospitals being overrun and during the flu season?
Exactly! The question answers itself COVID-19 is nothing like the flu.
Yes. And in many cases it's misnamed or wrong because the test is not reliable. I found out a friend in town is in the hospital on a respirator with it AND DOUBLE PNEUMONIA. He had to have been sick already.
Unless the people where you live have an ass that's 36 inches, it's not even close...
Pretty close in all too many cases!
Quote:
your standard shopping cart is 3 feet long. So, no, they do not account for most of the difference. They account for half.
Unless the people where you live have an ass that's 36 inches, it's not even close...
Pretty close in all too many cases!
meanwhile, hundreds of thousands (250k) have been hospitalized with flu just this season alone in the US (and over 14k dead)... i believe that is since Oct 2019... wouldn't that have crippled the US healthcare system as well?
again, not trying to make an argument for/against anything... but the raw numbers comparison make no sense to me when seeing what is happening in the hospitals and with the available equipment.
For example, in Italy, they give the ventilators to patients under 60.
Very clear, practical and compelling:
Video with great advice - ( New Window )
As another mentioned this didn't replace the Flu, this is added onto it. And with the symptoms being worse, well, there you go.
As for the season flu deaths, I believe a ton of that is in the elderly which is why we are trying like crazy to not have that happen even more with COVID19.
No, we won't shut down because of the flu.
5-10%?
and right now that 5-10% is a fairly small number - certainly relative to the flu.
so how much of the hospital chaos is from people who don't otherwise need to be at the hospital but have whipped themselves in a frenzy over this?
I meant to say that all those rates were high for the 4,600 SMALLEST BANKS (which is most of them).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLOBS (you have to request for outside of top 10 banks, but findings are almost as severe).
Total Debt Balance: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
For the other fact, I use the FRBNY Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.
5-10%?
and right now that 5-10% is a fairly small number - certainly relative to the flu.
so how much of the hospital chaos is from people who don't otherwise need to be at the hospital but have whipped themselves in a frenzy over this?
Hospitals aren't putting patients in ICU beds and on ventilators because " they whipped themselves in a frenzy"...
Because that happens on a yearly, fairly predictable, basis and is baked in, as are the maternity wards for example. Hospitals are on narrow margins with few extra beds, extra beds make no money, so when a pandemic hits the narrow excess capacity is easily overwhelmed.
5-10%?
and right now that 5-10% is a fairly small number - certainly relative to the flu.
so how much of the hospital chaos is from people who don't otherwise need to be at the hospital but have whipped themselves in a frenzy over this?
You keep saying you aren't trying to refute it, but you kinda are.
Tons of people get the flu too and usually they don't have symptoms either. Its no different here. Those that get symptoms get worse symptoms and it gets deadlier, quicker.
5-10%?
and right now that 5-10% is a fairly small number - certainly relative to the flu.
so how much of the hospital chaos is from people who don't otherwise need to be at the hospital but have whipped themselves in a frenzy over this?
I think there is some validity to this. People who aren't sick running to be tested. Here in Norwalk, the police have completely blocked off one road that leads to the hospital, and they have a patrol care and medical personal and the other main entrance when I passed on the way to running an errand yesterday.
It’s a scenario that could soon repeat in the United States, experts warn.'
Doctors are literally being forced to choose who will die due to lack of ventilators.
Too many coronavirus patients, too few ventilators - ( New Window )
I am simply struggling to see how the numbers of severe Covid-19 patients, as we currently know the numbers, are throttling the healthcare system as it is... and I have no reason to doubt the veracity of those saying the hospitals are being overrun right now.
And so I was theorizing that perhaps too many people are going to hospitals who don't otherwise need to be going to hospitals and taking up valuable time and equipment b/c they are really scared, rather than actually needing to be there.
in the end, it is what it is and it is bad...
Its just my wife and I, (30s) and my daughter (4.5) - if one of us starts feeling shitty we are just going to stay home and tough it out unless it got worse. But if I lived with my parents I'd likely go in a lot sooner as they are 65+.
A lot of the US still has 3 generations under 1 roof or parents moved in with children who are now their caretakers. These people need to know if they have it.
I haven't paid as close to Italy other than the headlines... I was comparing the raw #'s of US flu cases with Covid-19 and asking my question off of that comparison.
It is the height of selfishness and stupidity. What happened to social distancing, limiting travel, etc.? This is just mind boggling, especially with the large elderly population down here, including my parents.
is that not the case?
is that not the case?
From Washington Post:
The White House coronavirus task force, citing concern about the soaring infection rate in and around New York City, is asking anyone who has left the area recently to self-isolate for 14 days. Still, President Trump said he wants America “opened up” by Easter (April 12) and continued to play down the dangers of the pandemic even as experts warned of a worsening crisis.
It is the height of selfishness and stupidity. What happened to social distancing, limiting travel, etc.? This is just mind boggling, especially with the large elderly population down here, including my parents.
I agree we are not doing enough to reduce transmission. I know we are not the same country as China, and do not want to be, but they basically eliminated domestic travel. What that meant is Wuhan did not export the virus much, but then bore the brunt of the infection, like a cruise ship. To compensate, they built emergency hospitals in the most severely affected areas. Here with our looser control over movement, we will see the virus exported and break out elsewhere, so even as NYC levels off, we can expect breakouts in other areas.
There is some solace in the fact that early action and lower densities could make things go better than they are in NYC. New York and California had their first infections at similar times, California current reporting ~1900 cases, New York 21.6K cases. So there is hope that NY is uniquely bad and the situation can be better mitigated elsewhere.
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As a NYer who has moved to Florida, one of the big problems we are having down here is people from NY and the surrounding areas flying down here in mass exodus. About 100 flights a day.
It is the height of selfishness and stupidity. What happened to social distancing, limiting travel, etc.? This is just mind boggling, especially with the large elderly population down here, including my parents.
I agree we are not doing enough to reduce transmission. I know we are not the same country as China, and do not want to be, but they basically eliminated domestic travel. What that meant is Wuhan did not export the virus much, but then bore the brunt of the infection, like a cruise ship. To compensate, they built emergency hospitals in the most severely affected areas. Here with our looser control over movement, we will see the virus exported and break out elsewhere, so even as NYC levels off, we can expect breakouts in other areas.
There is some solace in the fact that early action and lower densities could make things go better than they are in NYC. New York and California had their first infections at similar times, California current reporting ~1900 cases, New York 21.6K cases. So there is hope that NY is uniquely bad and the situation can be better mitigated elsewhere.
+1. We need to take distancing on the chin up front.
you could have ended that before the "...who is only looking at..."
is that not the case?
They are so inundated right now, and focusing on major hubs like FTL and MIA. No enforcement at smaller airports like PBIA. People are just breezing through without being screened. Those that are being screened are subjecting TSA/Nat Guard/airport employees. Just so selfish.
I wouldn't swear to the scale, but it illustrates a point that a lot of people aren't getting. This is a hospital capacity problem and that affects anyone in need of intensive or emergency care, not just COVID-19 patients. This flu doesn't have a hospitalization rate like this does.
"The flu", not "This flu"
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cute response, but is that really a fair comparison example?
I wouldn't swear to the scale, but it illustrates a point that a lot of people aren't getting. This is a hospital capacity problem and that affects anyone in need of intensive or emergency care, not just COVID-19 patients. This flu doesn't have a hospitalization rate like this does.
I don't do twitter, and therein lies the problem with limited characters. I don't get freaking out about a stupid tweet. I don't know that he means that he doesn't understand why a rush at once would overwhelm the system, or doesn't understand why we are at a point where we aren't prepared to handle anticipated situations that may overwhelm the system.
1. No partial immunity (as in the flu) with prior vaccines or exposure.
2. Length of stay for a coronavirus case, compared to the flu (5 for flu, compared to 11 or higher with coronavirus).
3. Overlapping with flu season (already strained healthcare system).
4. Necessity for more ventilators and oxygen machines, which reduce space for additional patients.
5. Large influx of false positives; people who think they may have it.
I don't know who he is. I don't do twitter, as "aggressively stupid" pretty much sums up about 80% of it from what I've seen. Why is he relevant to anything?
These idiots playing doctor just need to leave it to science and health experts....
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Mitchell is aggressively "stupid" on twitter. This isn't a rarity for him. He deleted another offensive tweet linking the amount of Italians in NY to the virus.
I don't know who he is. I don't do twitter, as "aggressively stupid" pretty much sums up about 80% of it from what I've seen. Why is he relevant to anything?
He's a "journalist" (and accused grifter). I'd link some info but much of it talks about his political beliefs and I truly am not looking to ruin this thread. Just he has some "influence".
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In comment 14849222 LG in NYC said:
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cute response, but is that really a fair comparison example?
I wouldn't swear to the scale, but it illustrates a point that a lot of people aren't getting. This is a hospital capacity problem and that affects anyone in need of intensive or emergency care, not just COVID-19 patients. This flu doesn't have a hospitalization rate like this does.
I don't do twitter, and therein lies the problem with limited characters. I don't get freaking out about a stupid tweet. I don't know that he means that he doesn't understand why a rush at once would overwhelm the system, or doesn't understand why we are at a point where we aren't prepared to handle anticipated situations that may overwhelm the system.
I think the tweet is sarcastic. He seems to understand how the rush would be a problem and is using it as an analogy for those who do not understand how COVID-19 could overwhelm the health care system.
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your standard shopping cart is 3 feet long. So, no, they do not account for most of the difference. They account for half.
Unless the people where you live have an ass that's 36 inches, it's not even close...
Maybe you should make it out to a grocery store. Even if the cart is 3 feet, with my arms extended to the handle, my face is a good foot or more behind the cart and I leave about 2 feet between the end of the cart and my neighbor's ass. That's 6 feet. Add in the fact that his face is another 6 inches ahead of his ass and he's facing away from me, the math works pretty well. But thanks for your concern.
I sorta said the same thing above, but without the "maybe you should" part and the ass reference. And agree: there's at least six feet of separation almost always. But, unmentioned, there's also contact with the grocery pile separator on the conveyor belt that someone ahead of you probably touched to consider. Maybe we should stop doing that -- fiddling with the separator I mean. And, finally, some people use those little carts or, worse, hand baskets, screwing up the whole six feet analysis. How to deal with that? Turn around and tell the guy to back off, I guess, unless he does it all by himself. My bet is that most will do just that, but I don't plan to go back to a store again for a while now and so will not be able to check out the validity of our conclusions. If you do, please tune back in to report further on this key topic.
Yep. They're all coming to Florida...
Fair enough...
Actually, I really did not hear that, just piled on.
1) the pile of bodies is a ridiculous comnment
2) it's easy for a multibillionaire who's 7 generatiosn away great grandchildren would sill be loaded to sit home forever
3) It's even easier for him to forget that the waiters, bartenders, chefs and busboys all need the paycheck from said restaurants in order to eat, pay rent, pay for medicine while he sits home collecting his dividends.
No one is suggeting ignore it or not to be intelligent about his, but the reality is more people die every year of other flu and other diseases. We can't shut down and leave these average working people nothing to come back to.
Bill Gates on Trump call for quick end to lockdown: - ( New Window )
Standing 6 feet away from someone doesn't really mitigate the transmission threat when shopping.
1) the pile of bodies is a ridiculous comnment
2) it's easy for a multibillionaire who's 7 generatiosn away great grandchildren would sill be loaded to sit home forever
3) It's even easier for him to forget that the waiters, bartenders, chefs and busboys all need the paycheck from said restaurants in order to eat, pay rent, pay for medicine while he sits home collecting his dividends.
No one is suggeting ignore it or not to be intelligent about his, but the reality is more people die every year of other flu and other diseases. We can't shut down and leave these average working people nothing to come back to. Bill Gates on Trump call for quick end to lockdown: - ( New Window )
People ignore the societal effects of economic recession. And those like Gates have no clue. Increased drug/alcohol abuse, suicides, child abuse, domestic abuse, poverty and its litany of side effects. My wife was telling me one story she read where a hospital would typically report 6 incidents of deadly child abuse per year. They reported 2 in one week.
By the way, if pretty much everyone holds a shopping cart the same way, adding a similar scalar to the size of the shopping cart means that you are still the distance of the shopping cart away.
You still need to back the fuck away from the person with a shopping cart; given what I've seen at stores, it's still not enough.
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"It’s tough to tell people ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’" - Bill Gates
1) the pile of bodies is a ridiculous comnment
2) it's easy for a multibillionaire who's 7 generatiosn away great grandchildren would sill be loaded to sit home forever
3) It's even easier for him to forget that the waiters, bartenders, chefs and busboys all need the paycheck from said restaurants in order to eat, pay rent, pay for medicine while he sits home collecting his dividends.
No one is suggeting ignore it or not to be intelligent about his, but the reality is more people die every year of other flu and other diseases. We can't shut down and leave these average working people nothing to come back to. Bill Gates on Trump call for quick end to lockdown: - ( New Window )
People ignore the societal effects of economic recession. And those like Gates have no clue. Increased drug/alcohol abuse, suicides, child abuse, domestic abuse, poverty and its litany of side effects. My wife was telling me one story she read where a hospital would typically report 6 incidents of deadly child abuse per year. They reported 2 in one week.
Right here in Norwalk, a divorced father took his 5 and 3 year old to abandoned house, hung them both and killed himself two days ago.
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"It’s tough to tell people ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’" - Bill Gates
1) the pile of bodies is a ridiculous comnment
2) it's easy for a multibillionaire who's 7 generatiosn away great grandchildren would sill be loaded to sit home forever
3) It's even easier for him to forget that the waiters, bartenders, chefs and busboys all need the paycheck from said restaurants in order to eat, pay rent, pay for medicine while he sits home collecting his dividends.
No one is suggeting ignore it or not to be intelligent about his, but the reality is more people die every year of other flu and other diseases. We can't shut down and leave these average working people nothing to come back to. Bill Gates on Trump call for quick end to lockdown: - ( New Window )
People ignore the societal effects of economic recession. And those like Gates have no clue. Increased drug/alcohol abuse, suicides, child abuse, domestic abuse, poverty and its litany of side effects. My wife was telling me one story she read where a hospital would typically report 6 incidents of deadly child abuse per year. They reported 2 in one week.
Gates will need to really dig deep and sacrifice by only driving 4 of his 7 cars for the next 3 weeks.
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In comment 14848912 kicker said:
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your standard shopping cart is 3 feet long. So, no, they do not account for most of the difference. They account for half.
Unless the people where you live have an ass that's 36 inches, it's not even close...
Pretty close in all too many cases!
Wouldn’t that be a risk factor for the virus?
Only if you're a Kardashian.
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In comment 14849269 Victor in CT said:
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"It’s tough to tell people ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’" - Bill Gates
1) the pile of bodies is a ridiculous comnment
2) it's easy for a multibillionaire who's 7 generatiosn away great grandchildren would sill be loaded to sit home forever
3) It's even easier for him to forget that the waiters, bartenders, chefs and busboys all need the paycheck from said restaurants in order to eat, pay rent, pay for medicine while he sits home collecting his dividends.
No one is suggeting ignore it or not to be intelligent about his, but the reality is more people die every year of other flu and other diseases. We can't shut down and leave these average working people nothing to come back to. Bill Gates on Trump call for quick end to lockdown: - ( New Window )
People ignore the societal effects of economic recession. And those like Gates have no clue. Increased drug/alcohol abuse, suicides, child abuse, domestic abuse, poverty and its litany of side effects. My wife was telling me one story she read where a hospital would typically report 6 incidents of deadly child abuse per year. They reported 2 in one week.
Gates will need to really dig deep and sacrifice by only driving 4 of his 7 cars for the next 3 weeks.
Yes! I can see him flying in on his private jet to tell us his plan to genetically re-engineer the pteradactyl for us to fly on like the Flintstones.
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In comment 14849269 Victor in CT said:
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"It’s tough to tell people ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’" - Bill Gates
1) the pile of bodies is a ridiculous comnment
2) it's easy for a multibillionaire who's 7 generatiosn away great grandchildren would sill be loaded to sit home forever
3) It's even easier for him to forget that the waiters, bartenders, chefs and busboys all need the paycheck from said restaurants in order to eat, pay rent, pay for medicine while he sits home collecting his dividends.
No one is suggeting ignore it or not to be intelligent about his, but the reality is more people die every year of other flu and other diseases. We can't shut down and leave these average working people nothing to come back to. Bill Gates on Trump call for quick end to lockdown: - ( New Window )
People ignore the societal effects of economic recession. And those like Gates have no clue. Increased drug/alcohol abuse, suicides, child abuse, domestic abuse, poverty and its litany of side effects. My wife was telling me one story she read where a hospital would typically report 6 incidents of deadly child abuse per year. They reported 2 in one week.
Right here in Norwalk, a divorced father took his 5 and 3 year old to abandoned house, hung them both and killed himself two days ago.
Ok. Is there a tie-in to this thread?
Yes, he's given $36 billion to charity, but you're missing the chance to pile on.
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In comment 14849274 KDavies said:
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In comment 14849269 Victor in CT said:
Quote:
"It’s tough to tell people ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’" - Bill Gates
1) the pile of bodies is a ridiculous comnment
2) it's easy for a multibillionaire who's 7 generatiosn away great grandchildren would sill be loaded to sit home forever
3) It's even easier for him to forget that the waiters, bartenders, chefs and busboys all need the paycheck from said restaurants in order to eat, pay rent, pay for medicine while he sits home collecting his dividends.
No one is suggeting ignore it or not to be intelligent about his, but the reality is more people die every year of other flu and other diseases. We can't shut down and leave these average working people nothing to come back to. Bill Gates on Trump call for quick end to lockdown: - ( New Window )
People ignore the societal effects of economic recession. And those like Gates have no clue. Increased drug/alcohol abuse, suicides, child abuse, domestic abuse, poverty and its litany of side effects. My wife was telling me one story she read where a hospital would typically report 6 incidents of deadly child abuse per year. They reported 2 in one week.
Right here in Norwalk, a divorced father took his 5 and 3 year old to abandoned house, hung them both and killed himself two days ago.
Ok. Is there a tie-in to this thread?
there is if you bother to read the post he was responding to
For the most part, we've ignored the social and economic ills from poverty for decades, fighting a "war on poverty" that paid (at best) lip service to the true issues in underserved populations.
Yes, a self-imposed recession will impart significant socioeconomic ills in our communities that are already struggling. But before this, 78-percent of all Americans were living paycheck to paycheck, which should highlight the structural inequities that we have been seeing. To me, it's a little cynical for policymakers to now worry about such issues, when they have largely ignored them (for the most part).
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In comment 14849285 Victor in CT said:
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In comment 14849274 KDavies said:
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In comment 14849269 Victor in CT said:
Quote:
"It’s tough to tell people ‘keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner’" - Bill Gates
1) the pile of bodies is a ridiculous comnment
2) it's easy for a multibillionaire who's 7 generatiosn away great grandchildren would sill be loaded to sit home forever
3) It's even easier for him to forget that the waiters, bartenders, chefs and busboys all need the paycheck from said restaurants in order to eat, pay rent, pay for medicine while he sits home collecting his dividends.
No one is suggeting ignore it or not to be intelligent about his, but the reality is more people die every year of other flu and other diseases. We can't shut down and leave these average working people nothing to come back to. Bill Gates on Trump call for quick end to lockdown: - ( New Window )
People ignore the societal effects of economic recession. And those like Gates have no clue. Increased drug/alcohol abuse, suicides, child abuse, domestic abuse, poverty and its litany of side effects. My wife was telling me one story she read where a hospital would typically report 6 incidents of deadly child abuse per year. They reported 2 in one week.
Right here in Norwalk, a divorced father took his 5 and 3 year old to abandoned house, hung them both and killed himself two days ago.
Ok. Is there a tie-in to this thread?
there is if you bother to read the post he was responding to
The story I read about the deaths did not present a motive, or note, or any suggestion as to reason. Knowing that, wouldn't it be disingenuous to use a story like that to make a point?
How is that a "reality" ?
And Gates is right. There is no way to restart this economy until the virus is controlled. No matter what is said its simply not possible.
There is no switch that will turn on the economy. Doing a rough calculation, but having a small minority (10-20%) of people sheltering in place while others don’t still imposes economic costs of several hundred billion at least. And that’s the rosy scenario.
There is no switch that will turn on the economy. Doing a rough calculation, but having a small minority (10-20%) of people sheltering in place while others don’t still imposes economic costs of several hundred billion at least. And that’s the rosy scenario.
Exactly. Even if you had every Government official on the same page telling the entire nation to "get back to work and normal routine"- which has 0% of occurring, nobody would listen.
Would anyone in their right mind go to a crowded gym right now? Busy bar/ restaurant? Can keep naming the scenario but you get the picture. Not to mention the actual people who will be very sick and can't physically work...
Bill Gates also predicted this exact scenario years ago. I would be listening to him...
Is this a financial crisis? Or is this a health crisis? Is it safe to go out again in a few weeks because it's actually safe to go out, or because they want me to spend money?
There is a lot of fearmongering, and for somebody who avoids the news (me), it's really hard to get a clear message.
My family and I are doing our part, probably overkill even. We are basically self quarantining without illness and very sparingly leaving the house at all except for walks or supplies (which we are mostly having delivered).
How "scared" should the average 40 something married couple with gradeschool kids be worried about this?
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but Bill Gates has done a pretty significant amount of philanthropic work. Just to balance a little of the out of touch billionaire chatter.
Yes, he's given $36 billion to charity, but you're missing the chance to pile on.
Yeah, well, why didn't he give $50 billion? Cheap bastard!
Also the Google founders left their Alphabet roles in December (still on the board I believe).
Probably normal and unrelated, just curious - no preconceived thoughts about them - when you have three titans of tech all "freed up" within a couple months of each other.
“If you reduce the density, you can reduce the spread very quickly,” said Cuomo in an Albany press briefing.
As of Sunday, the state’s team of scientists projected that hospitalizations were doubling every two days, said Cuomo.
But by Monday, that rate slowed to 3.4 days, and by Tuesday, it had dropped to 4.7 days.
Cuomo urged cautious optimism, as the state tallied 30,811 confirmed cases with 285 now dead.
“Now, that is almost too good to be true,” he said. “This is a very good sign.
“I’m not 100 percent sure it holds, or it’s accurate, but the arrows are headed in the right direction, and that is always better than the arrows headed in the wrong direction.”
If that trend holds, it would help ease what’s projected to be a crushing burden on the state’s hospital system.
It’s anticipated that when the contagion hits at its full “bullet train” force — in two to three weeks — 140,000 hospital beds will be needed, including 40,000 ICU beds.
Link - ( New Window )
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Would anyone in their right mind go to a crowded gym right now? Busy bar/ restaurant?
Yes, I think people (not me) would. In the same numbers? probably not
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The unprecedented actions taken by the Fed, coupled with the massive stimulus package, suggests that economic policy makers are really worried about aggregate (consumer and business) demand.
There is no switch that will turn on the economy. Doing a rough calculation, but having a small minority (10-20%) of people sheltering in place while others don’t still imposes economic costs of several hundred billion at least. And that’s the rosy scenario.
Exactly. Even if you had every Government official on the same page telling the entire nation to "get back to work and normal routine"- which has 0% of occurring, nobody would listen.
Would anyone in their right mind go to a crowded gym right now? Busy bar/ restaurant? Can keep naming the scenario but you get the picture. Not to mention the actual people who will be very sick and can't physically work...
Bill Gates also predicted this exact scenario years ago. I would be listening to him...
See I'm on the other side, the minute govt says get out and go back to normal I will. I am getting stir crazy. Sure there is 10-20% of the population that won't, but that still means 80% will. This could be enough to jolt the economy started again. This is a balance, some want to wait until everything is perfect, some are ready to move it now. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and likely based on probability.
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but Bill Gates has done a pretty significant amount of philanthropic work. Just to balance a little of the out of touch billionaire chatter.
Yes, he's given $36 billion to charity, but you're missing the chance to pile on.
Yes, he and many others in that strata are very generous and that's certainly adnirable, but it doesn't change the fact that they are clueless about how average working people live.
Why can't we just be straight that people are afraid for their own self interests, their own retirement, their own 401ks and stop pretending that people give a flying shit about the "societal effects" on others. The state and the majority of people don't give a fuck about "suicides" or "alcoholism" or "divorce rates" or any other cute little buzzword now being used by suddenly concerned anti-poverty hunters.
Is this a financial crisis? Or is this a health crisis? Is it safe to go out again in a few weeks because it's actually safe to go out, or because they want me to spend money?
There is a lot of fearmongering, and for somebody who avoids the news (me), it's really hard to get a clear message.
My family and I are doing our part, probably overkill even. We are basically self quarantining without illness and very sparingly leaving the house at all except for walks or supplies (which we are mostly having delivered).
How "scared" should the average 40 something married couple with gradeschool kids be worried about this?
My children are a little younger than yours but basically in the same boat. And I share the same question/concern.
What is the level of danger to them/us and when will it be better?
For the most part, we've ignored the social and economic ills from poverty for decades, fighting a "war on poverty" that paid (at best) lip service to the true issues in underserved populations.
Yes, a self-imposed recession will impart significant socioeconomic ills in our communities that are already struggling. But before this, 78-percent of all Americans were living paycheck to paycheck, which should highlight the structural inequities that we have been seeing. To me, it's a little cynical for policymakers to now worry about such issues, when they have largely ignored them (for the most part).
The fact that a large percentage of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck is not attributable only to low paychecks. There is a large percentage of the population that will spend will live as high on the hog as they can. Doesn't matter if they were making $25k or $250k
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but Bill Gates has done a pretty significant amount of philanthropic work. Just to balance a little of the out of touch billionaire chatter.
Yes, he's given $36 billion to charity, but you're missing the chance to pile on.
Yup. Bill Gates will go down as one of the great champions of public health, specifically infectious diseases. His efforts have and will save millions of lives.
He also knows a thing or two about infectious diseases.
But it speaks to not only the hollowing of the middle class, but also other structural inequities, which is precisely what I said. And having this group distressed also leads to socioeconomic issues that may not be poverty, but still matter.
Standing 6 feet away from someone doesn't really mitigate the transmission threat when shopping.
Standing away doesn't eliminate the threat. It does mitigate (lessen) it. Unfortunately, we can't stop eating, so food is a necessary risk. Even if you pick up or have groceries delivered, they are still being handled by multiple people along the chain before they reach you.
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In comment 14849330 kicker said:
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The unprecedented actions taken by the Fed, coupled with the massive stimulus package, suggests that economic policy makers are really worried about aggregate (consumer and business) demand.
There is no switch that will turn on the economy. Doing a rough calculation, but having a small minority (10-20%) of people sheltering in place while others don’t still imposes economic costs of several hundred billion at least. And that’s the rosy scenario.
Exactly. Even if you had every Government official on the same page telling the entire nation to "get back to work and normal routine"- which has 0% of occurring, nobody would listen.
Would anyone in their right mind go to a crowded gym right now? Busy bar/ restaurant? Can keep naming the scenario but you get the picture. Not to mention the actual people who will be very sick and can't physically work...
Bill Gates also predicted this exact scenario years ago. I would be listening to him...
See I'm on the other side, the minute govt says get out and go back to normal I will. I am getting stir crazy. Sure there is 10-20% of the population that won't, but that still means 80% will. This could be enough to jolt the economy started again. This is a balance, some want to wait until everything is perfect, some are ready to move it now. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and likely based on probability.
What "govt" are you waiting to hear from? Federal and most states have every different ideas. The executive and much of the legislative have very different ideas. Those within the executive all seem to have very different ideas.
Before jumping out and resuming your normal routine, you might want to explore the reasons you're being told to do that.
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The number of hands on shelves, products, payments, baskets/carts, bags, and doors while shopping is a much bigger transmission threat at a market.
Standing 6 feet away from someone doesn't really mitigate the transmission threat when shopping.
Standing away doesn't eliminate the threat. It does mitigate (lessen) it. Unfortunately, we can't stop eating, so food is a necessary risk. Even if you pick up or have groceries delivered, they are still being handled by multiple people along the chain before they reach you.
Exactly. Which was the point I was making in our exchange last night.
Step 1) Limit the number of non-essential hands interacting with the supply chain (fewer shoppers, less frequency).
Step 2) Limit the number of infected people who are essential in the supply chain. The distancing and sheltering measures for non-essential younger and less vulnerable populations is critical here.
Inside Bill's Brain on Netflix is a quick watch of some of the big problems he's tackled. I have no qualms with a guy like that deciding how his vast wealth should be spent, because he's far more educated and able to solve real problems with it.
Isn't one of the first steps in solving the demand problem getting people out there working and spending money again?
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will not jolt the economy. Again, we have a massive Demand problem. The Fed and federal government are both hinting at it.
Isn't one of the first steps in solving the demand problem getting people out there working and spending money again?
How do you achieve that in the current situation? It's simply not possible right now.
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will not jolt the economy. Again, we have a massive Demand problem. The Fed and federal government are both hinting at it.
Isn't one of the first steps in solving the demand problem getting people out there working and spending money again?
stop being so logical
Cars and furniture accounts for $900 billion towards GDP. Big purchases are unlikely to resume normal functions. Recreational goods and vehicles are another $425 billion. If you start looking at services that are going to be impacted (hotels, eating accomodations, ...), that's going to be a sector of potentially over $1 trillion.
That's the demand problem; couple that with expectations that the supply chain could fragment, raising prices, and I think consumer expectations get lowered.
Cars and furniture accounts for $900 billion towards GDP. Big purchases are unlikely to resume normal functions. Recreational goods and vehicles are another $425 billion. If you start looking at services that are going to be impacted (hotels, eating accomodations, ...), that's going to be a sector of potentially over $1 trillion.
That's the demand problem; couple that with expectations that the supply chain could fragment, raising prices, and I think consumer expectations get lowered.
I agree completely with the huge challenges going forward. With estimates of 20% unemployment (I've even seen 30), it's a mess. However, wouldn't the stimulus bill make a huge dent on the demand side? Unemployment is being subsidized by an additional $600/wk for up to 4 months, and a family of 4 will be getting an average check of $3,400. The stimulus check while also having the intent of helping families facing unemployment, also has the intent of boosting economic spending. For every $1.00 spent in the 2008/2009 stimulus, it was something like $1.57 that went back in the economy.
While there are a lot of people who are facing unemployment/lost wages, there are also a lot of people who are not personally effected economically much, or not at all, by the coronavirus. For them, the hope is that the $3,400 per family of 4 will be used towards those purchases. ie. new furniture, travel, down payment on car
Yeah right, the FED is helping these people. The FED as usual is bailing out the big banks and their fund investors, flooding the system with cash to reflate their bubble. The low rates mean nothing to the people mentioned above. Jobless, property-less people don't get loans from banks. ANd if they have savings, the get 0.01% (1bp) on their $$ while their bank gets 2.50% (250bps) if they leave their money at the FED. As for the fiscal "stimulus", again, big deal. Send one of these folks a grand and it's gone in a day to rent, or a car payment and insurance payment. But Larry Fink and BlackRock get paid to administer the FED bailout of the banks CMBS portfolios, which will soon be worthless since msot commercial tenants will not be paying rent and will likely never return if this goes on much longer.
BAU. Heads they win, tails we lose.
By the way, if pretty much everyone holds a shopping cart the same way, adding a similar scalar to the size of the shopping cart means that you are still the distance of the shopping cart away.
You still need to back the fuck away from the person with a shopping cart; given what I've seen at stores, it's still not enough.
True. Yes, we do. Big"if." Variations can be surprising. Definitely. Always was and remains dangerous not to. And, no, it really isn't.
Getting a percentage of the population back into everyday function is fine. But market shocks have a tendency to shine a light on underlying issues, and debt is absolutely an underlying issue.
It also depends on when the checks come. I know April 6th was floated out, but other estimates suggest May is a much more likely time frame. The later the checks are mailed, the less likely they will be used to fund purchases, and more likely they will be used to buffer savings or pay down debt. It also depends on what the virus looks like at that time.
I think you dramatically underestimate the impact of this loss on the average American consumer. 2.25 million initial unemployment job claims is a tenfold increase. 10-percent unemployment would see roughly 11 million people (not households) lose their jobs. The living wage for a family of 4 in America (enough to cover basic bills) is $1,300 per week. Couple that with the fact that part time employment is rising (while full time is falling), and I think you start to see a lot of underemployment.
The U.S. household income distribution is such that about 40-percent of households earn less than $50,000. The number is about 33-percent for households with 2 (or more) children, under the age of 7.
Even looking at this impact, a stimulus check of $3,400 would account for only 3.5 weeks of income for a family with a household income of $50,000. It really is not a lot. If there are any inflationary pressures because of supply chain disruptions, the real value of this goes down tremendously.
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actions taken by the Fed would be absolutely unnecessary, and would actually be harmful to the economy in the long-run.
Yeah right, the FED is helping these people. The FED as usual is bailing out the big banks and their fund investors, flooding the system with cash to reflate their bubble. The low rates mean nothing to the people mentioned above. Jobless, property-less people don't get loans from banks. ANd if they have savings, the get 0.01% (1bp) on their $$ while their bank gets 2.50% (250bps) if they leave their money at the FED. As for the fiscal "stimulus", again, big deal. Send one of these folks a grand and it's gone in a day to rent, or a car payment and insurance payment. But Larry Fink and BlackRock get paid to administer the FED bailout of the banks CMBS portfolios, which will soon be worthless since msot commercial tenants will not be paying rent and will likely never return if this goes on much longer.
BAU. Heads they win, tails we lose.
The FED actions allow business, both big and small, to get cash. This cash can be used to keep people on the payrolls, and keep operating so everyone has a job when this thing is over. Thats the biggest thing we can do, make sure everyones job is still there. WE don't want companies going under and jobs going away.
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actions taken by the Fed would be absolutely unnecessary, and would actually be harmful to the economy in the long-run.
Yeah right, the FED is helping these people. The FED as usual is bailing out the big banks and their fund investors, flooding the system with cash to reflate their bubble. The low rates mean nothing to the people mentioned above. Jobless, property-less people don't get loans from banks. ANd if they have savings, the get 0.01% (1bp) on their $$ while their bank gets 2.50% (250bps) if they leave their money at the FED. As for the fiscal "stimulus", again, big deal. Send one of these folks a grand and it's gone in a day to rent, or a car payment and insurance payment. But Larry Fink and BlackRock get paid to administer the FED bailout of the banks CMBS portfolios, which will soon be worthless since msot commercial tenants will not be paying rent and will likely never return if this goes on much longer.
BAU. Heads they win, tails we lose.
Where did I state that the Fed is helping individuals? Of course they aren't; monetary policy, by definition, has only a second-order effect on households at best.
The point was that a complete decoupling of Fed policy to any economic reality means that they are desperately doing anything to address the demand problem that, up until that point, was in limbo, with frozen negotiations over a stimulus package that is going to absolutely shatter our ability to engage in any meaningful projects in the future, because our debt and deficit is out of whack.
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In comment 14849431 kicker said:
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actions taken by the Fed would be absolutely unnecessary, and would actually be harmful to the economy in the long-run.
Yeah right, the FED is helping these people. The FED as usual is bailing out the big banks and their fund investors, flooding the system with cash to reflate their bubble. The low rates mean nothing to the people mentioned above. Jobless, property-less people don't get loans from banks. ANd if they have savings, the get 0.01% (1bp) on their $$ while their bank gets 2.50% (250bps) if they leave their money at the FED. As for the fiscal "stimulus", again, big deal. Send one of these folks a grand and it's gone in a day to rent, or a car payment and insurance payment. But Larry Fink and BlackRock get paid to administer the FED bailout of the banks CMBS portfolios, which will soon be worthless since msot commercial tenants will not be paying rent and will likely never return if this goes on much longer.
BAU. Heads they win, tails we lose.
The FED actions allow business, both big and small, to get cash. This cash can be used to keep people on the payrolls, and keep operating so everyone has a job when this thing is over. Thats the biggest thing we can do, make sure everyones job is still there. WE don't want companies going under and jobs going away.
That is borrowed cash that would have to be paid back. Cash that most small businesses dont have and whose margins don't allow for it
Depends on how you view the graph, but self-employed employment levels never recovered after 2007 to 2009 (which had held roughly steady since the early to mid 90's).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12027714
Small business lending has also not recovered.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/recent-trends-in-small-business-lending-and-the-community-reinvestment-act-20180102.htm
The majority of that is devoted to tackling the impact and treatment of infectious diseases.
Unlike many philanthropists, Gates doesn't show up for the gold tournaments or the annual big donor dinner; in fact he doesn't go. Researchers ( my brother was one of them)who have worked with the Gates Foundation say is deeply into the science and the details and engages at the work and analysis level.
The Foundation concentrates on Infectious Diseases, Child Nutrition in poor nations, getting top tier health supplies to poor areas and Infant Mortality.
The enormous decline in malaria deaths in Africa, South America and Asia ( in the millions ) since he got involved is a story worth reading about. Ditto efforts to stem EBOLA and HIV.
IF you look up evaluations of the effectiveness of Foundations in meeting their goals and with the least take out of pay to the officers; you will find it is very well run. As you would expect from one of the great entrepreneurs (not investor or developer...guy who built something with his own money) of the last 100 years.
btw, look up the story of how IBM did not take him seriously when negotiating with a 20 year old and the enormous consequence of underestimating a guy who saw the future and had the skill to out game the lawyers and executives of the worlds best organization of its time
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In comment 14849378 kicker said:
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will not jolt the economy. Again, we have a massive Demand problem. The Fed and federal government are both hinting at it.
Isn't one of the first steps in solving the demand problem getting people out there working and spending money again?
stop being so logical
How is this being logical?
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.
The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.
Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.
Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.
The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.
How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.
The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.
If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.
A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
Link - ( New Window )
Cancer drug trials on hold amid coronavirus disruption
A promising therapy for those afflicted...
How blood from coronavirus survivors might save lives
Data resource for the curious to play with, notice how NY is an outlier in coronvirus growth, overall and per capita, worldwide.
COVID-19 IN THE UNITED STATES
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If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.
The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.
Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.
Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.
The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.
How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.
The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.
If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.
A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
Link - ( New Window )
The problem is you cannot restrict the epidemic by isolating a certain age class. It is hard enough to keep the virus out of Florida or Ohio, much less keeping it out of the elderly population in a state where the virus goes unchecked. If you let the virus run rampant among low risk groups, it could have a tremendous health impact right there because those groups are low risk, but still at much higher risk of hospitalization relative to the flu, but this practice would also decimate the elderly that live in that society.
The problem with the current economy is the virus. The economy will not get better until there is high confidence, based on data, that the virus is under control.
But context is important. First, I will never question someone's philanthropy, so I'm not questioning it now. It's fucking admirable at worst, heroic at best, but Gates net worth is ~100 billion dollars, so saying he's committed 95B to his foundation is incredible, but living the rest of your life off (at least) 5 billion dollars isn't exactly living in hostels.
Gates deserves more credit than he generally gets. He's still a capitalist at heart so he drives some people crazy and he did some shady shit (legal but shady IMO) with Microsoft to help him accumulate his fortune, but he's doing a lot of good with it now.
Not sure I agree with or fully understand his views on poverty vs disease and poverty vs health and health vs family planning, but he's a science driven person I believe, not politically driven which makes him infinitely more likable than many of his politically bent peers.
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The unprecedented actions taken by the Fed, coupled with the massive stimulus package, suggests that economic policy makers are really worried about aggregate (consumer and business) demand.
There is no switch that will turn on the economy. Doing a rough calculation, but having a small minority (10-20%) of people sheltering in place while others don’t still imposes economic costs of several hundred billion at least. And that’s the rosy scenario.
Exactly. Even if you had every Government official on the same page telling the entire nation to "get back to work and normal routine"- which has 0% of occurring, nobody would listen.
Would anyone in their right mind go to a crowded gym right now? Busy bar/ restaurant? Can keep naming the scenario but you get the picture. Not to mention the actual people who will be very sick and can't physically work...
Bill Gates also predicted this exact scenario years ago. I would be listening to him...
Also the Google founders left their Alphabet roles in December (still on the board I believe).
Probably normal and unrelated, just curious - no preconceived thoughts about them - when you have three titans of tech all "freed up" within a couple months of each other.
I think the President was smartly positioning himself so when the "stay at home" is increased in duration (most likely in some areas) he can show he was fighting for those most in need of getting back to work. It is a election year after all.
Looking to restart May 4.
im not trying to glorify a life much of which was devoted to his goals and all else secondary. he is a hard ass. with the good and bad that comes with that trait.
My actual goal was to convey that, surrounded by first tier talent on some aspects that apply to this crisis, id listen. Like all you hear consider and form ones own thoughts.
he aint running for office and he isn't asking for our money.
Which makes some advice come from a good place and some from a disconnected place. Our job to sort through it
I think the President was smartly positioning himself so when the "stay at home" is increased in duration (most likely in some areas) he can show he was fighting for those most in need of getting back to work. It is a election year after all.
Gates didn’t Tweet, he gave his opinion in context in an interview. He’s all not speaking from the position of just a tech pal, but as the operator of a major organization focused on infectious disease.
And if you really want to contemplate a depression and prolonged agony, start with prematurely getting people back in contact, and then having to do it all over because we jumped the gun.
Many Massachusetts cities and towns in the past year or so have banned single use shopping bags (plastic and paper) - despite science on the subject not supporting it.
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
im not trying to glorify a life much of which was devoted to his goals and all else secondary. he is a hard ass. with the good and bad that comes with that trait.
My actual goal was to convey that, surrounded by first tier talent on some aspects that apply to this crisis, id listen. Like all you hear consider and form ones own thoughts.
he aint running for office and he isn't asking for our money.
Which makes some advice come from a good place and some from a disconnected place. Our job to sort through it
I was agreeing with you, the only point I wasn't 100% sold on was the level of commendation he deserves for allocating 95 out of 100 billion to his foundation. And I hate the way I phrased it initially and even now, but I feel like people (me included) sometimes don't have a solid grasp of just how much money his remaining fortune of 5 billion dollars would be.
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
I've been saying for weeks the mortality rates quoted are absurd because they arent testing the broad population base - just the higher risk segments. Which in absence of accurate, wide spread availability of test kits universally... makes sense i guess. Even in China, less than 2% of their cases were ages <20... so the rates are just completely skewed.
But 1/10th as lethal as the regular flu? Thats batshit crazy and IMO hurts the credibility of their research. 30 and 40 year olds dont die or go into sudden comas from the regular flu.
PS. our nanny has had symptoms since Friday (probably got it from my wife who we never bothered to get tested, was no point - they wouldnt have given her a test anyway)... still cant get tested. We live in NY/Westchester. They tell her its because shes under 40 and not high risk and to just monitor it at home for now. So the testing process still sucks, even in Westchester, and so we're probably never going to get our arms completely around this.
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
We will know soon if they're right or not because it would mean we're right about at the peak (here in NY) and we'd see figures start to decline soon. Speaking about the Stanford researchers only (assuming you're referring to the piece in the WSJ), they may very well be right but I didn't find the evidence to be more than just intriguing at this stage. Socially transmitted diseases are highly clustered so taking a small sampling based on a few of them could be signal or noise but there's no way of knowing right now.
Not that I have a choice but those odds I will take
Have faith (and hope) that taking care of myself and not having in pre conditions (even at 56) bodes well for me
Rarely get sick, like twice in last ten yrs
Hopefully that helps a little
also been cleaning.disinfecting 10x more than I have ever dreamed
so hope that helps too
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
do you have an article for this? So there theory is it is a nothing burger? How can we explain China'a lockdown? Or the crisis in Italy? Or whatever is happening in Iran?
What about the young who are getting sick, I know it impacts the eldery and sick more, but there are numerous stories of younger people, a principal in NY was 36? I know FLU is deadly too, but I dont think it really hits the young and they said this is ten times lighter then flu?
I dont know.
Or the running through of the nursing home in Seattle? Again, not arguing with you, just would like to read more.
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Maybe this article is media hype, but how do you fake full morgues?
Ten times less deadly than flu?
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thanks
Even if it only equaled the flu and killed 2800 people... at the 0.1% mortality rate, that means only 1.28M people age 19-49 caught it, and with call it 125 million people in this country in that age bracket, means only 2% of the population got infected.
Sounds too good to be true as much as I'd like it to be
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
So if all this is correct, then Covid19 didn't just get started here. Its been here for months and is starting to go away. We should see drops in the hardest hit areas like NYC, and in all the other states where the hit was limited to begin with, it should just go away.
Full lock downs may not be warranted, may only need targeted strategies for the hospitals and the old.
To me it would be quite the risk to take do not try to slam down the spread and it turned out the mortality was in the higher range. Would be helpful is mass testing of some kind could happen to understand more, perhaps it is not practical.
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Oxford researchers believe the virus has already infected 1/2 of the UK — because 99% of infected individuals are asymptomatic or did not seek hospital treatment, it spread silently throughout January and February. As to the 1% who were hospitalized or died, there was no covid testing, so it was attributed to other causes.
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
So if all this is correct, then Covid19 didn't just get started here. Its been here for months and is starting to go away. We should see drops in the hardest hit areas like NYC, and in all the other states where the hit was limited to begin with, it should just go away.
Well, they say it is still an issue, just a more targeted response. Quite a risk to take with NYC though. What if it is that deadly? Gambling the citizens of the city is playing with fire.
Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial
Author links open overlay panelPhilippeGautretab$Jean-ChristopheLagierac$PhilippeParolaabVan ThuanHoangabdLineMeddebaMorganeMailheaBarbaraDoudieraJohanCourjonefgValérieGiordanengohVera EstevesVieiraaHervé TissotDupontacStéphaneHonoréijPhilippeColsonacEricChabrièreacBernardLa ScolaacJean-MarcRolainacPhilippeBrouquiacDidierRaoultac
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105949Get rights and content
Abstract
Background
Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine have been found to be efficient on SARS-CoV-2, and reported to be efficient in Chinese COV-19 patients. We evaluate the role of hydroxychloroquine on respiratory viral loads.
Patients and methods
French Confirmed COVID-19 patients were included in a single arm protocol from early March to March 16th, to receive 600mg of hydroxychloroquine daily and their viral load in nasopharyngeal swabs was tested daily in a hospital setting. Depending on their clinical presentation, azithromycin was added to the treatment. Untreated patients from another center and cases refusing the protocol were included as negative controls. Presence and absence of virus at Day6-post inclusion was considered the end point.
Results
Six patients were asymptomatic, 22 had upper respiratory tract infection symptoms and eight had lower respiratory tract infection symptoms.
Twenty cases were treated in this study and showed a significant reduction of the viral carriage at D6-post inclusion compared to controls, and much lower average carrying duration than reported of untreated patients in the literature. Azithromycin added to hydroxychloroquine was significantly more efficient for virus elimination.
Conclusion
Despite its small sample size our survey shows that hydroxychloroquine treatment is significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients and its effect is reinforced by azithromycin.
They'll resume use of the Gowanus Canal ...
Seriously, one problem may be that loved ones can't easily hold funerals, wakes etc. currently - they are basically prohibited at the moment. So it may not just be how fast the deceased are coming in, but how fast they can be permanently put to rest.
"
In several hours on Tuesday, Dr. Ashley Bray performed chest compressions at Elmhurst Hospital Center on a woman in her 80s, a man in his 60s and a 38-year-old who reminded the doctor of her fiancé. All had tested positive for the coronavirus and had gone into cardiac arrest. All eventually died.
Elmhurst, a 545-bed public hospital in Queens, has begun transferring patients not suffering from coronavirus to other facilities as it moves toward becoming a facility dedicated entirely to the outbreak. Doctors and nurses have struggled to make do with a few dozen ventilators. Calls over a loudspeaker of “Team 700,” the code for when a patient is on the verge of death, come several times a shift. Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed.
A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, New York City’s public hospital system said in a statement, 13 people at Elmhurst had died.
“It’s apocalyptic,” said Dr. Bray, a general medicine resident at the hospital."
"
In several hours on Tuesday, Dr. Ashley Bray performed chest compressions at Elmhurst Hospital Center on a woman in her 80s, a man in his 60s and a 38-year-old who reminded the doctor of her fiancé. All had tested positive for the coronavirus and had gone into cardiac arrest. All eventually died.
Elmhurst, a 545-bed public hospital in Queens, has begun transferring patients not suffering from coronavirus to other facilities as it moves toward becoming a facility dedicated entirely to the outbreak. Doctors and nurses have struggled to make do with a few dozen ventilators. Calls over a loudspeaker of “Team 700,” the code for when a patient is on the verge of death, come several times a shift. Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed.
A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, New York City’s public hospital system said in a statement, 13 people at Elmhurst had died.
“It’s apocalyptic,” said Dr. Bray, a general medicine resident at the hospital."
Well, thats not good at all.
Quote:
Oxford researchers believe the virus has already infected 1/2 of the UK — because 99% of infected individuals are asymptomatic or did not seek hospital treatment, it spread silently throughout January and February. As to the 1% who were hospitalized or died, there was no covid testing, so it was attributed to other causes.
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
So if all this is correct, then Covid19 didn't just get started here. Its been here for months and is starting to go away. We should see drops in the hardest hit areas like NYC, and in all the other states where the hit was limited to begin with, it should just go away.
Yes, we are already seeing slowing in Washington State — and as Cuomo noted today, the increase in hospitalizations in NYC (our Wuhan?) is dropping fast too. After nearly a full season, the world death totals are less than 1/30th of the seasonal flu totals. 1/30th.
@NHLdotcom
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1h
Bauer, one of the leading manufacturers of hockey equipment, has begun making face shields for medical workers treating patients with the coronavirus, writes @NHLAdamK
Let's hope it's a trend but so far IT"S JUST ONE DAY.
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Oxford researchers believe the virus has already infected 1/2 of the UK — because 99% of infected individuals are asymptomatic or did not seek hospital treatment, it spread silently throughout January and February. As to the 1% who were hospitalized or died, there was no covid testing, so it was attributed to other causes.
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
I've been saying for weeks the mortality rates quoted are absurd because they arent testing the broad population base - just the higher risk segments. Which in absence of accurate, wide spread availability of test kits universally... makes sense i guess. Even in China, less than 2% of their cases were ages <20... so the rates are just completely skewed.
But 1/10th as lethal as the regular flu? Thats batshit crazy and IMO hurts the credibility of their research. 30 and 40 year olds dont die or go into sudden comas from the regular flu.
PS. our nanny has had symptoms since Friday (probably got it from my wife who we never bothered to get tested, was no point - they wouldnt have given her a test anyway)... still cant get tested. We live in NY/Westchester. They tell her its because shes under 40 and not high risk and to just monitor it at home for now. So the testing process still sucks, even in Westchester, and so we're probably never going to get our arms completely around this.
Before you dismiss the elite researchers at Stanford as “bat shit” crazy, do the math yourself. They model that a highly infectious virus like covid 19, if it touched down on January 1, there would be 6 million infected by March 9. That infection total might have doubled by today, March 25, but even going by the March 9 numbers — early in the full community transmission period — divide 350 million by the number of deaths.
Why is it plausible? Because when random testing is done, they are finding 50% of those infected have zero symptoms. What’s the no symptom rate for the seasonal flu I wonder, which kills 30,000 in the US per even WITH a vaccine.
As far as 30 year olds dying, to date ZERO people have died in Wash State under 40 — and there are outliers with all illnesses. 2 years ago my super—athletic and healthy 14 year old nearly died from strep throat. There are always outliers — but this proving to be a mild virus.
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
Amen brother. Amen. I’m starting to think we may have massively over estimated the danger.
Let's hope it's a trend but so far IT"S JUST ONE DAY.
he also said he feels like itnis leveling out and said the hospitals are nkt overrun and they can create more beds...
It was a much different press conference then yesterday..
Its horrible that even a couple % of people infected may be dying
and we are obviously not ready for that in this country
Just watch the news in a country with 330 million, 1-2 million people dying is not alot % wise but when they all come in a few months and we have death counts everyday, of course people gonna freak
Everyone trying to be on the right side of the argument
just take precautions, say a few prayers to whoever or whatever u pray too, appreciate the little things and family and maybe even stay away from the news. Its not the walking dead without the zombies here
They're also claiming 90% of cases going unreported but 0% of deaths going unreported.
That's besides what I pointed out earlier which isn't flawed methodology but small sample sizes extrapolating from a highly clustered infectious disease.
We'd all like it to be accurate and I want to be hopeful but this ain't it.
Similarly, Stanford estimates that the virus started spreading quickly in early January. They note 1000s of US citizens traveled to Wuhan and back in December. They estimate that 6 million Americans have already been infected, and the death rate is only 1/10th that of the seasonal flu. Maybe that’s why the NYC hospitalization rates have actually been going down (Cuomo said today it’s “almost too good to be true”).
The only way to confirm that this is true is to do mass serological antibody testing, but after a certain period, a previously infected person (who now has immunity) would no longer test positive. The UK has ordered 3.5 million antibody tests? Us? Not sure. Hope we smarten up soon.
Agreed. Let's hope that we can quickly get a handle on this virus. My guess is that it's already throughout the U.S. But it's hard to detect. Many people have no symptoms, and those that do in many cases only have a mild case that they often mistake for the flu.
Social distancing is fine, but was never going to be enough to stop the spread of virus as easily transmissible as COVID - 19. There was too much resistance to social distancing, it was implemented too late, and was insufficient. The best strategy was to combine social distancing with an effective treatment until we can develop a vaccine. The good news is that it appears Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin are effective. Another doctor also suggested adding Zinc.
They're also claiming 90% of cases going unreported but 0% of deaths going unreported.
That's besides what I pointed out earlier which isn't flawed methodology but small sample sizes extrapolating from a highly clustered infectious disease.
We'd all like it to be accurate and I want to be hopeful but this ain't it.
If they were not trsting for covid19 wouldnt that mean they died from other things?
They're also claiming 90% of cases going unreported but 0% of deaths going unreported.
That's besides what I pointed out earlier which isn't flawed methodology but small sample sizes extrapolating from a highly clustered infectious disease.
We'd all like it to be accurate and I want to be hopeful but this ain't it.
As stated by the Oxford researchers, the world response to this virus tracked the Imperial College model which predicted millions of deaths. It’s often been said we are “14 days behind Italy” before the exponential tsunami hits. The US surgeon general last said it on March 14. So let’s revisit on March 28 and see where we are. And then, if the model is no longer supportable, then adjustments should be made. Agree?
"
In several hours on Tuesday, Dr. Ashley Bray performed chest compressions at Elmhurst Hospital Center on a woman in her 80s, a man in his 60s and a 38-year-old who reminded the doctor of her fiancé. All had tested positive for the coronavirus and had gone into cardiac arrest. All eventually died.
Elmhurst, a 545-bed public hospital in Queens, has begun transferring patients not suffering from coronavirus to other facilities as it moves toward becoming a facility dedicated entirely to the outbreak. Doctors and nurses have struggled to make do with a few dozen ventilators. Calls over a loudspeaker of “Team 700,” the code for when a patient is on the verge of death, come several times a shift. Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed.
A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, New York City’s public hospital system said in a statement, 13 people at Elmhurst had died.
“It’s apocalyptic,” said Dr. Bray, a general medicine resident at the hospital."
Did Dr. Bray happen to mention if any of the patients, particularly the 38 YO, had any underlying conditions? With the hospital "struggling" with a shortage of ventilators, were any of the deaths attributed to not having a ventilator for that patient?
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the data is highly flawed. Other prestigious academics have pointed this out ad nauseam. The crux of their argument centers around extrapolating infection rates of western expat evacuees to all of Wuhan and then rejects the official Chinese reported case numbers but uses the official Chinese death numbers.
They're also claiming 90% of cases going unreported but 0% of deaths going unreported.
That's besides what I pointed out earlier which isn't flawed methodology but small sample sizes extrapolating from a highly clustered infectious disease.
We'd all like it to be accurate and I want to be hopeful but this ain't it.
As stated by the Oxford researchers, the world response to this virus tracked the Imperial College model which predicted millions of deaths. It’s often been said we are “14 days behind Italy” before the exponential tsunami hits. The US surgeon general last said it on March 14. So let’s revisit on March 28 and see where we are. And then, if the model is no longer supportable, then adjustments should be made. Agree?
In case you haven't been paying attention, NYC (you know the largish city about 50 miles south of you) has become the new Italy. The hospital system in in the process of melting down. To put it bluntly that "paper" is "Batshit crazy". The flaws are too numerous and egregious to even begin to take it seriously. Furthermore it was never peer reviewed and accepted by Oxford. It was just put out by a few individuals on their own. If you want to look, there is plenty of evidence that refutes just about everything in it. But I know that if I point it out it will get attacked so, I will leave it to others.
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In comment 14849733 Strahan91 said:
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the data is highly flawed. Other prestigious academics have pointed this out ad nauseam. The crux of their argument centers around extrapolating infection rates of western expat evacuees to all of Wuhan and then rejects the official Chinese reported case numbers but uses the official Chinese death numbers.
They're also claiming 90% of cases going unreported but 0% of deaths going unreported.
That's besides what I pointed out earlier which isn't flawed methodology but small sample sizes extrapolating from a highly clustered infectious disease.
We'd all like it to be accurate and I want to be hopeful but this ain't it.
As stated by the Oxford researchers, the world response to this virus tracked the Imperial College model which predicted millions of deaths. It’s often been said we are “14 days behind Italy” before the exponential tsunami hits. The US surgeon general last said it on March 14. So let’s revisit on March 28 and see where we are. And then, if the model is no longer supportable, then adjustments should be made. Agree?
In case you haven't been paying attention, NYC (you know the largish city about 50 miles south of you) has become the new Italy. The hospital system in in the process of melting down. To put it bluntly that "paper" is "Batshit crazy". The flaws are too numerous and egregious to even begin to take it seriously. Furthermore it was never peer reviewed and accepted by Oxford. It was just put out by a few individuals on their own. If you want to look, there is plenty of evidence that refutes just about everything in it. But I know that if I point it out it will get attacked so, I will leave it to others.
Not attacking, and definitely not practicing anything than shelter-in-place protocols. Let’s just see how things play out over the next 7 days or so, and we can revisit the data. With its population density (and other factors), if it’s going to go exponential anywhere, it’ll be in NYC.
Not close to science or logic
sorry. And maybe someday optimistic outcomes can be reached with more data but that path doesn't hold up
Not close to science or logic
sorry. And maybe someday optimistic outcomes can be reached with more data but that path doesn't hold up
Thanks Bill...
Let me say this, their whole premise is mathematically impossible.
No matter what viral spread is an exponential curve. However, the shape can vary. If the growth rate is slow enough (a large standard deviation), you will get what will appear to be an almost linear growth. This would have to have been the case in their scenario, since it spread so widely over several months without anybody noticing. The limited testing there was, didn't pick up infections. Places like SK and Germany where there has been much wider spread testing, just somehow missed it all while it was ramping up...
Here is the thing about exponential growth in a fixed population, about 2/3 the way up the curve is a natural inflection point as herd immunity naturally slows the spread. The curve of infections slows down and becomes negatively inflected. Also, all along hospitalizations, ICU requirements, and deaths will always be proportional to those infected (with a certain time lag, time from infection to death). If the proposition they put forth were true, that 50% of the population already has it, then all the numbers (detections, hospitalizations, ICU patients, and deaths) should all be slowing by now, and all should have been on a gentle almost linear upward trend.
If what they claim was true, we wouldn't see the steep curves in hospitalizations, ICU patients, and deaths. The curves for each of these mirrors the curve for infections, just lagging. The data we already have does not comport with their claim. It is a mathematical impossibility.
Not close to science or logic
sorry. And maybe someday optimistic outcomes can be reached with more data but that path doesn't hold up
So the Imperial College model, drawn from February data in one city in one country, is “science and logic” but the Oxford and Stanford models, drawn from more recent data and from multiple countries is a “speculative construct“? Ok, difference in opinion, only time will tell I guess.
So we have multiple examples of the curves and trends on this disease. There is simply no way to make the numbers/curves we are seeing on the ground (i.e. cases, hospitalizations, ICU patients, and deaths) match their claims.
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That's a speculative construct not an analysis
Not close to science or logic
sorry. And maybe someday optimistic outcomes can be reached with more data but that path doesn't hold up
So the Imperial College model, drawn from February data in one city in one country, is “science and logic” but the Oxford and Stanford models, drawn from more recent data and from multiple countries is a “speculative construct“? Ok, difference in opinion, only time will tell I guess.
Jim, it isn't just a difference of opinion...
What they claim is mathematically impossible.
There is no way to fit the data we have TODAY, to what they are claiming.
I have serious issues with the Imperial College study. I don't trust Chinese data in any way shape or form.
The fact is that what we are seeing in Italy, and what is starting to happen in Spain is far worse than the Chinese reported. I don't think the Chinese suffered anything less what we see in Italy, they just didn't report it.
The Chinese didn't shut down the whole country for a disease that is milder than the flu. Common sense tells you otherwise.
Good point Bob.
And when I said a few days ago that without strict social distancing, it was doubling every 2.5 days, I was shouted down as a crackpot who could not do math. Now it is the widely accepted number quoted by both revered scientists and politicians. And 4.7 days is serious slowdown and a relief of the growth rate...
People want to believe the batshit crazy reports, and I'm the crackpot. Eye roll...
Not attacking, and definitely not practicing anything than shelter-in-place protocols. Let’s just see how things play out over the next 7 days or so, and we can revisit the data. With its population density (and other factors), if it’s going to go exponential anywhere, it’ll be in NYC.
Where do analyze the variable that the suppression measures are potentially working?
Actually he said the rate is going down and the arrow was pointing in the right direction, that was exactly what he said...
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Not attacking, and definitely not practicing anything than shelter-in-place protocols. Let’s just see how things play out over the next 7 days or so, and we can revisit the data. With its population density (and other factors), if it’s going to go exponential anywhere, it’ll be in NYC.
Where do analyze the variable that the suppression measures are potentially working?
To that point. When I did my analysis a while back, it was a "worst case do nothing" scenario. I made that clear in the post. We have already done something. The suppression measures are slowing it down. We don't have enough data to figure out just how much it is slowing it down, but it is slowing it down.
And when we look at data a week from now, it has to be realized that suppression is skewing the numbers away from the do nothing scenario.
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Rather it was doubling in 4.7 days rather than 2.5 days (I do not remember the exact numbers). Trend is still up, just not increasing as rapidly.
Actually he said the rate is going down and the arrow was pointing in the right direction, that was exactly what he said...
Google Michael Levitt, the batshit crazy Nobel Laureate from Stanford. He has an interview in the LA Times.
Quote:
Rather it was doubling in 4.7 days rather than 2.5 days (I do not remember the exact numbers). Trend is still up, just not increasing as rapidly.
Actually he said the rate is going down and the arrow was pointing in the right direction, that was exactly what he said...
The *GROWTH RATE* (I.E. the slope of the curve) was going down... Which means that the time to double is longer. But it is still growing and still doubling over a period of days. Just longer.
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In comment 14849793 BobOnLI said:
Quote:
Rather it was doubling in 4.7 days rather than 2.5 days (I do not remember the exact numbers). Trend is still up, just not increasing as rapidly.
Actually he said the rate is going down and the arrow was pointing in the right direction, that was exactly what he said...
Google Michael Levitt, the batshit crazy Nobel Laureate from Stanford. He has an interview in the LA Times.
Don't care if he is GOD...
His math doesn't work.
Quote:
In comment 14849793 BobOnLI said:
Quote:
Rather it was doubling in 4.7 days rather than 2.5 days (I do not remember the exact numbers). Trend is still up, just not increasing as rapidly.
Actually he said the rate is going down and the arrow was pointing in the right direction, that was exactly what he said...
The *GROWTH RATE* (I.E. the slope of the curve) was going down... Which means that the time to double is longer. But it is still growing and still doubling over a period of days. Just longer.
So this is good news right. The curve needs to slow before it turns around
It's a low probability event, but it's not precluded.
1) assumptions that are not supported
2) garbage data in is garbage data out.
It's not personal. Why defend conclusions based on incomplete data and speculation labeled as such?
You yourself said we need to wait for more and better data.
We violently agree.
but it also means the curve is flattening, and by spreading out it is helps the hospitals...
Also Murphy said the hospitals are ok right now
1) assumptions that are not supported
2) garbage data in is garbage data out.
It's not personal. Why defend conclusions based on incomplete data and speculation labeled as such?
You yourself said we need to wait for more and better data.
We violently agree.
Bill, what do you think is going to happen then? What’s your prediction based on? Honest question.
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In comment 14849799 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14849793 BobOnLI said:
Quote:
Rather it was doubling in 4.7 days rather than 2.5 days (I do not remember the exact numbers). Trend is still up, just not increasing as rapidly.
Actually he said the rate is going down and the arrow was pointing in the right direction, that was exactly what he said...
Google Michael Levitt, the batshit crazy Nobel Laureate from Stanford. He has an interview in the LA Times.
Don't care if he is GOD...
His math doesn't work.
let me take that back... The math from "Oxford" group doesn't work.
Levitt is not basing his on that work at all...
Levitt is basing his work on strict social distancing.
If the Oxford group is right and 50% have already had the disease, then you don't see exponential growth anymore... You are on the downside of the curve.
There is a reason it is a PIIGS country...
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In comment 14849799 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14849793 BobOnLI said:
Quote:
Rather it was doubling in 4.7 days rather than 2.5 days (I do not remember the exact numbers). Trend is still up, just not increasing as rapidly.
Actually he said the rate is going down and the arrow was pointing in the right direction, that was exactly what he said...
The *GROWTH RATE* (I.E. the slope of the curve) was going down... Which means that the time to double is longer. But it is still growing and still doubling over a period of days. Just longer.
So this is good news right. The curve needs to slow before it turns around
Well its not bad news... But the disease is still growing. We need more time to see just how much effect social distancing is having. Doubling every 5 days is still not good, just better than 2.5.
Because i dont have good data. Neither does anyone else. At this time
And because without enough known there are not useful confidence intervals
Same point kicker made. The possible range of conclusions is too wide.
Over and out Jim. For me, more circling on this one is just searching for the last word
There is a reason it is a PIIGS country...
Do we trust NYC data?
Just one example
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I trust who have worked with Italian data suggest that it is one of the more unreliable sources in all of the EU. So, even using those data points may not be wholly representative.
There is a reason it is a PIIGS country...
Do we trust NYC data?
Relative to other places? Yes. Absolutely? No.
The problem with using any current data is you are not using the full population; you are pulling from a truncated sample where infection rates could be high OR low (depending on when it started) to create a forecast.
Any forecast without the confidence intervals is bupkis; because, at this point, the confidence interval appears to be between 0% infection and 100% mortality.
Just one example
Another example: Do countries report deaths the same way. Or do some countries attribute deaths related to covid-19 to other causes?
Also are some countries calling any pneumonia related death covid-19...
Environmental factors that could have sped up or slowed down infection rates (snow delaying flights, ...)?
Differences in testing procedures, or test accuracy (I don't believe we have really verified the veracity of Type I or Type II error in the tests)?
No, we can't. Thus, any predictive ability is minimal, at best. Most likely to drive home a point.
Whaddya done some analysis before?
Too early is too early
It could have been logarithmic growth with a mutation that allowed it to spread easier.
It could have been a very long build up (the memorylessness feature of exponential growth) that is now highlighting in more infections.
Any conclusion for any of these can be defended or refuted. Some are probably higher probability chances than others, but until the disease runs its course...
Whaddya done some analysis before?
Lol; comparatively, none.
Here's another thing. What happens if there was some form of natural immunity in Asia from previous illness outbreaks that may not be present here (similar to malaria)?
Other immunologists agree. “Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not yet well understood and we do not know how protective the antibody response will be in the long-term,” says Erica Bickerton at the Pirbright Institute in the UK.
“For ordinary coronavirus infections, you do not get lasting immunity,” says Longini. “You can be infected over and over, and we really don’t know for this novel coronavirus if that’s also true.”
Small animal testing is promising. However, assuming there is immunity, no one knows how long it would last.
Perhaps we should figure that out before we talk about abandoning distancing with the populace that isn't deemed "at-risk."
Can you catch the coronavirus twice? We don’t know yet - ( New Window )
Because i dont have good data. Neither does anyone else. At this time
And because without enough known there are not useful confidence intervals
Same point kicker made. The possible range of conclusions is too wide.
Over and out Jim. For me, more circling on this one is just searching for the last word
Thanks Bill. I don’t want the last word at all, and quite honestly, I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about lol. I’m going to bow out of this one for a while — hoping for the best and look forward to future debates on things like whether Judge should call more designed runs for Daniel Jones ....
From my own dated experience in ER's when in doubt many doctors wrote " kidney failure " ( which is almost always a end life symptom)
Extrapolate from an early February overwhelmed hospital with a sample size of 30 in the data base and 6 sloppy "assigned causes" has a huge influence on the conclusions no matter what the "model"
I do know i cant wait until we can do the kinds of analysis you referenced. It would mean the season is finally here!
Take care
With correct parameterization, you can get precisely their results.
Again, low probability, but it is thoroughly possible.
I can't do the math anymore, but it's a convolution of IID exponential variables (why the fuck do I know this, I know, I know).
hey Bob - nice to see you back and posting. Hope you are well.
I’m not being combative, what I’m saying is, when the likes of swine flu, SARS, etc came about we didn’t enter the level of panic and preemptive measures that we have for Covid-19. What is the data that supports this reaction in comparison to the other major outbreaks we have had in the last 20 or so years?
There must be a key data factor that tipped this particular contagions response as compared to the other. What would that data point be, and can it be trusted and proven? Are deaths coming at a faster pace? At this point during swine flu or SARS were there more or less people infected and more or less deaths. And if Covid is tracking behind those two currently in comparison then what is the underlying data that has warranted the response if it’s behind? And if it’s ahead is it significantly ahead or nearly even?
Hope that makes sense. Thanks in advance for any information.
Other factors would probably turn this discussion political so I’ll leave it at the disease characteristics.
Other factors would probably turn this discussion political so I’ll leave it at the disease characteristics.
Thank you Strahan91, appreciate the response. I guess my follow up would be, was it tracking ahead or behind those other viruses in comparison, time-wise.
My assumption would be that the only data that would make sense to review would be data prior to the beginning of the US beginning to self quarantine. I’m not talking about state or federal mandates, but the point about two weeks ago when some places began telling workers and students etc to stay home. That never happened with the other viruses. So if we look at the data to the point up to when businesses and schools began to close, does it show Covid-19 was ahead of the others?
With all the talk here of data, I actually thing the demographic of those that are dying is under discussed. As far as I can tell it’s mostly people over 70 with comorbidities who are dying from covid19. Not to say there aren’t outliers, and certainly not to say the death of people over 70 with compromised health profiles are to be ignored. But I think the fact that most people who get this virus will survive is under emphasized in reporting and policy.
I’ve had a fairly long course of illness I assume is covid19 and the better I get the less worried I am that I’m going to die from this virus. I suppose that makes sense, but my opinion today is a lot more optimistic than it was 12 days ago when I first got sick and had all the knowledge of Italy and Wuhan fresh in my mind. When we’re in something like his it’s hard to rational and it’s natural to be afraid.
With correct parameterization, you can get precisely their results.
Again, low probability, but it is thoroughly possible.
I can't do the math anymore, but it's a convolution of IID exponential variables (why the fuck do I know this, I know, I know).
Ok... Mathematically I can see that, but are we seriously considering 2 infections and we have only managed to identify one of them.
Low probability doesn't begin to define that chance. I mean, it is beyond infinitesimal.
I've been saying that for over a month...
Their data is internally inconsistent. Can't possibly be accurate.
I have also mentioned that I have a personal relationship with a number of people in China. They have relayed a very different story that the official one we get from the commies and WHO...
I’m not being combative, what I’m saying is, when the likes of swine flu, SARS, etc came about we didn’t enter the level of panic and preemptive measures that we have for Covid-19. What is the data that supports this reaction in comparison to the other major outbreaks we have had in the last 20 or so years?
There must be a key data factor that tipped this particular contagions response as compared to the other. What would that data point be, and can it be trusted and proven? Are deaths coming at a faster pace? At this point during swine flu or SARS were there more or less people infected and more or less deaths. And if Covid is tracking behind those two currently in comparison then what is the underlying data that has warranted the response if it’s behind? And if it’s ahead is it significantly ahead or nearly even?
Hope that makes sense. Thanks in advance for any information.
I think is the overwhelming of the hospital systems.
When that happens a LOT more people die.
Would think so as well. And how are the people who are dying without confirmed tested cases being accounted? Highly doubt people are being tested after death but this is out of my realm...
2 things...
With the number of scientist watching for mutation as intently as they are right now, its hard to fathom...
Furthermore, if the mutation doesn't change the immunological fingerprint, then they are not independent, and it would not impact the model to comport with the Oxford math.
To make this really simple. Their claim is 50% have already been infected. If that were true, we could not see a doubling rate... ANYWHERE. 1 doubling more and 100% of the population is infected, another doubling is twice the entire population. Mathematically impossible. However, wherever this virus is it doubles every 2.5 days without supression measures. Number of detected new infections, number of hospitalizations, number of ICU patients, number of dead. All double every 2.5 days when nothing is done.
If there is 1 virus and 50% are infected, that is mathematically impossible.
If there were 2, and it went undetected for days, it would be a huge surprise, undetected for weeks, would be beyond shocking, but for their number to hold it would have had to have been undetected for about 2.5 months. All but impossible.
With all the talk here of data, I actually thing the demographic of those that are dying is under discussed. As far as I can tell it’s mostly people over 70 with comorbidities who are dying from covid19. Not to say there aren’t outliers, and certainly not to say the death of people over 70 with compromised health profiles are to be ignored. But I think the fact that most people who get this virus will survive is under emphasized in reporting and policy.
I’ve had a fairly long course of illness I assume is covid19 and the better I get the less worried I am that I’m going to die from this virus. I suppose that makes sense, but my opinion today is a lot more optimistic than it was 12 days ago when I first got sick and had all the knowledge of Italy and Wuhan fresh in my mind. When we’re in something like his it’s hard to rational and it’s natural to be afraid.
Trueblue, not sure if you have followed any of my posts over the last 10 days or so, but my wife was diagnosed without having the actual test. It took approximately 14 days for her to beat it. It took 3 days for us to get a call back from my general practitioner who finally diagnosed my wife via discussion over the phone. We called my GP, the ER and the department of health looking for help around day 9 I think. Before that a close family friend who’s is PA in Raleigh NC had diagnosed her via phone. But my GP was able to match her case with some others in the area that also began with strep. That was how it all started for us.
What symptoms do you have? I can lay out a detail account of what my wife went through over those two weeks and we can compare notes. It’s actually documented on this thread starting back on I believe last Wednesday of you scroll back.
Good luck to you. It’s painful as you know. The lingering of the symptoms is the most difficult part.
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with any certainty as to the chances of a virus mutating, or what other factor could impact transmissions.
2 things...
With the number of scientist watching for mutation as intently as they are right now, its hard to fathom...
Furthermore, if the mutation doesn't change the immunological fingerprint, then they are not independent, and it would not impact the model to comport with the Oxford math.
To make this really simple. Their claim is 50% have already been infected. If that were true, we could not see a doubling rate... ANYWHERE. 1 doubling more and 100% of the population is infected, another doubling is twice the entire population. Mathematically impossible. However, wherever this virus is it doubles every 2.5 days without supression measures. Number of detected new infections, number of hospitalizations, number of ICU patients, number of dead. All double every 2.5 days when nothing is done.
If there is 1 virus and 50% are infected, that is mathematically impossible.
If there were 2, and it went undetected for days, it would be a huge surprise, undetected for weeks, would be beyond shocking, but for their number to hold it would have had to have been undetected for about 2.5 months. All but impossible.
You don't need the independence assumption to still plausibly get an additive exponential function that mimics the Oxford math.
I'm not really sure why you are using a linear first derivative for growth (doubling, so 2x). And based on faulty data points along the way. It's what we have, but the only thing I can say is that the data are biased.
I understand the math very clearly; I've suggested it's a low probability event. But, one that can exist. I'm close enough to a statistician that the complexities of this makes uncertainty about anything the likeliest vector.
And any conclusions one way or the other involve at least one, probably more, assumptions that are not verifiable at this point.
Hope you have a good one; at this point, any further debate would be akin to arguing about distribution functions. It's a waste of time since everyone (and no one) are right.
That is the best data that we have right now and logically I'm not sure how it's arguable. It's hard enough to get any 2 countries to agree on anything, especially when it will have negative economic consequences. And here they all arrived at the same conclusions, in most cases only after getting a look at this virus inside their own borders.
So either there's widespread agreement there's a "there there", and the expert consensus is correct and this isn't just seasonal flu.
Or what? the entire world just went along with each other's overreactions? The country that literally sets the standard for caring nothing of workers rights/safety just went soft and set off a chain reaction of world leader panic? And the countries that were dismissive originally changed their posture because?
I'm all for being optimistic and hoping this thing ends up not being far worse than the flu even with the extreme measures in place, but it's very whistling past the graveyard to ignore the reality that the whole world is treating this very differently than the flu and there's likely good reason as to why to get such a consensus of unprecedented action.
That is the best data that we have right now and logically I'm not sure how it's arguable. It's hard enough to get any 2 countries to agree on anything, especially when it will have negative economic consequences. And here they all arrived at the same conclusions, in most cases only after getting a look at this virus inside their own borders.
So either there's widespread agreement there's a "there there", and the expert consensus is correct and this isn't just seasonal flu.
Or what? the entire world just went along with each other's overreactions? The country that literally sets the standard for caring nothing of workers rights/safety just went soft and set off a chain reaction of world leader panic? And the countries that were dismissive originally changed their posture because?
I'm all for being optimistic and hoping this thing ends up not being far worse than the flu even with the extreme measures in place, but it's very whistling past the graveyard to ignore the reality that the whole world is treating this very differently than the flu and there's likely good reason as to why to get such a consensus of unprecedented action.
Bingo and very well said. I am sadly surprised there isn't more of a consensus on this with the massive warnings we can see around the world. Poor communication from the top.
Granted I am making the assumption that once infected and recovered you are immune. At least for the time frames in which we have been dealing with this disease.
If the viruses are not independent (i.e. the have the same immunological fingerprint), that means if you get one, then you are immune to the other. We already see this. There are two mutations of this virus out there, the antibodies for both are the same. They are not independent. You cannot have 1 immunological fingerprint comport with the Oxford model where 50% of the population has already been infected. I'm not kidding or being hyperbolic about this, it is mathematically impossible.
You can come up with overlapping curves, the second more severe than the first if the two infections are independent. And now its only the second virus that causes the exponential growth we see.
If, infection and recovery doesn't provide immunity, that can also match the data.
Their math is possible. It's based on model fitting (my issues lie with that), but I wouldn't put it high up the list of shitty analyses I've seen.
I’m not being combative, what I’m saying is, when the likes of swine flu, SARS, etc came about we didn’t enter the level of panic and preemptive measures that we have for Covid-19. What is the data that supports this reaction in comparison to the other major outbreaks we have had in the last 20 or so years?
8 Americans tested positive for SARs, 2 for MERs, 68,354 for Covid 19 as of today.
The mortality rate data in the Chinese outbreak is unreliable. The response was unprecedented. Would that lead you to believe the true mortality rate was low, high, or extremely high?
The mortality rate in the Italian outbreak is more reliable. The response was disorganized and poorly enforced. The mortality rate was high. Approaching a ridiculous 10% rate.
New York City has 20,011K cases and 280 deaths. This during unprecedented closures, distancing, ample warning, word class medical facilities. Take away those closures and distancing, what do those numbers look like?
Take away those measures in other densely populated areas, what do those numbers look like?
It's estimated 60M+ Americans contracted H1N1 in 2009, and ~12K died.
If the US let this situation reach 60M people, and the mortality rate is anywhere near 1%, that's 600K.
Their math is possible. It's based on model fitting (my issues lie with that), but I wouldn't put it high up the list of shitty analyses I've seen.
Kicker, I actually understand what the did.
They twisted data to fit the Gaussian model to show that it was possible to match the curves seen over a 15 day period. But for the model to be correct, you have burned through half the susceptible population during that time. If it were the case, the continued growth would be impossible. Since we see continued growth now, the model cannot possible be correct. The model predicts a significant and immediate slowing. But that is not consistent with known data around the world.
[/quote]The Oxford study – which has not been published in a scientific journal or scrutinised by other scientists yet – offers a set of hypothetical situations about the possible extent of coronavirus transmission in the UK. The headline statistic, that more than half of the UK population has already been infected with coronavirus, is not supported by real-world data, epidemiologists argue.
“It’s a little concerning that they’ve taken it straight to the media,” says Tim Colbourn, an epidemiologist at University College London’s Institute for Global Health. “It has not been properly sense-checked against any data.”[/quote]
The Gaussian model fitting scenario they propose looks at only small slices of time and makes preposterous assumptions to make it work over those small slices. It is literal mathematically impossible when matched up against real world data over longer time periods. I can't say this strenuously enough. The paper isn't worth the pixels on the screen you viewed it, let alone the paper it might be printed on. Complete and utter rubbish is too kind.
They sensationalized it. The cardinal sin. It’s shitty research, but it’s common.
Incorrect forecasts do not mean wrong math. They may also mean shitty assumptions. This study is one.
Hospitals across U.S. consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients - ( New Window )
precisely, it has deviated far too much for it to be mathematically possible anymore. In fact, even when they did it, they cut the time period off at 15 days. They used some BS excuse where they said they didn't want to run into any suppression attempts to keep the data pure. The fact is, that even with suppression, the data can't be made to fit their model beyond the 15 days. Their model would call for a sudden and significant slowdown that was never seen even with suppression. At the point they cut off their model and claimed that 50% of the population had already been infected, there were subsequently still periods of exponential growth (albeit a slower) that would have to imply a population of greater than 100% to be possible. Of course a population of greater than 100% is by definition impossible. The only conclusion is that the model is not just improbable, it is impossible.
CORRECTION, I misread that. I did not refresh the page on the tracker so please ignore my post
That is the best data that we have right now and logically I'm not sure how it's arguable. It's hard enough to get any 2 countries to agree on anything, especially when it will have negative economic consequences. And here they all arrived at the same conclusions, in most cases only after getting a look at this virus inside their own borders.
So either there's widespread agreement there's a "there there", and the expert consensus is correct and this isn't just seasonal flu.
Or what? the entire world just went along with each other's overreactions? The country that literally sets the standard for caring nothing of workers rights/safety just went soft and set off a chain reaction of world leader panic? And the countries that were dismissive originally changed their posture because?
I'm all for being optimistic and hoping this thing ends up not being far worse than the flu even with the extreme measures in place, but it's very whistling past the graveyard to ignore the reality that the whole world is treating this very differently than the flu and there's likely good reason as to why to get such a consensus of unprecedented action.
I agree with your thoughts here. I remember seeing the Hazmat suits in China and the mechanized vehicles they were using spraying whatever it was and thinking something very serious is going on.
Even better models use a metaopulation framework which adjusts the overall parameters for the fact that epidemics can be local and asynchronous.
The point is that a simple exponential model predicting we are close to her immunity, when in fact symptomatic cases and deaths are increasing exponentially is absurd on the face of it.
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Italy shut down, France/Spain/England/Canada/India/Australia + dozens of others too.
That is the best data that we have right now and logically I'm not sure how it's arguable. It's hard enough to get any 2 countries to agree on anything, especially when it will have negative economic consequences. And here they all arrived at the same conclusions, in most cases only after getting a look at this virus inside their own borders.
So either there's widespread agreement there's a "there there", and the expert consensus is correct and this isn't just seasonal flu.
Or what? the entire world just went along with each other's overreactions? The country that literally sets the standard for caring nothing of workers rights/safety just went soft and set off a chain reaction of world leader panic? And the countries that were dismissive originally changed their posture because?
I'm all for being optimistic and hoping this thing ends up not being far worse than the flu even with the extreme measures in place, but it's very whistling past the graveyard to ignore the reality that the whole world is treating this very differently than the flu and there's likely good reason as to why to get such a consensus of unprecedented action.
Bingo and very well said. I am sadly surprised there isn't more of a consensus on this with the massive warnings we can see around the world. Poor communication from the top.
We are going to surpass Chinas numbers in the next few days. Think about that for a minute. The largest country in the world in terms of population will have had less cases then here in the United States.
China went to drastic measures that we can’t do here and probably stopped it from being a bigger problem, or they drastically fibbed the numbers. ( I think they fibbed the numbers, but I doubt it’s an extremely drastic fib). It ain’t looking great for us.
We are going to surpass Chinas numbers in the next few days. Think about that for a minute. The largest country in the world in terms of population will have had less cases then here in the United States.
China went to drastic measures that we can’t do here and probably stopped it from being a bigger problem, or they drastically fibbed the numbers. ( I think they fibbed the numbers, but I doubt it’s an extremely drastic fib). It ain’t looking great for us.
You look at Spain and Italy in terms of deaths. We are only about 7 days away from that. Our healthcare system is not that much better.
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We are going to surpass Chinas numbers in the next few days. Think about that for a minute. The largest country in the world in terms of population will have had less cases then here in the United States.
China went to drastic measures that we can’t do here and probably stopped it from being a bigger problem, or they drastically fibbed the numbers. ( I think they fibbed the numbers, but I doubt it’s an extremely drastic fib). It ain’t looking great for us.
You look at Spain and Italy in terms of deaths. We are only about 7 days away from that. Our healthcare system is not that much better.
New York State is higher than Spain and Italy in growth rate, and has already past Spain in total number of cases. The viral growth rate is higher in NYC than reported from China. When you adjust for the start date of the epidemic, New York is about the worst situation yet seen. For example, California which started about the same time has a tenth the cases or fewer.
I am not blaming anyone, NY is unique in many ways, but I could not agree more with the post above warning about whistling past the graveyard.
The data - ( New Window )
The commercial real estate market is extremely concerned and many are saying how this will cause a chain effect with banks and lenders.
Landlords would be smart to negotiate reduced terms for a few months but major cities seem very vulnerable here.
How does society adapt to these times short and long term? More ordering online for food and retail? Do businesses look to set up shop elsewhere in more spread out areas of the country with advances in technology where they can reduce overhead both in expenses and salaries and help build a more modern environment with better infrastructure. Do people look to move elsewhere with even more tax increases looming in the future to cover for this damage?
How much is the gov't going to help the major cities? NYC's losses will be astronomical imo with all the tourists not coming for the foreseeable future and then you have huge losses in the MTA system with lack of travel and much more work from home strategies. Same with Vegas, D.C., Philly, Florida, and many others.
Forget the garbage that was spewed out initially about them not being effective in preventing one from catching the virus. While some validity, IMO, the reasoning was an attempt to avoid a rush on buying up a limited supply. Somehow, they're a necessity for healthcare/front line workers, but ineffective for the average joe?
Never mind that commercial masks aren't going to be readily available to the public for the foreseeable future. Home made masks are ridiculously easy to make, and while not as efficient as commercial masks, they do offer a level of efficiency far above wearing nothing. Around here, there's a plethora of drives to have people make and donate to local healthcare/front line organizations.
While prevention of contracting is probably low-moderate, isn't something better than nothing?
On the flip side, though, they should be good for diminishing the aerosol spray of exhaling (or at least the size of the zone) and spreading the virus. On this one, the experts agree. If wearing were a widespread occurrence , wouldn't this diminish the spreading from folks who think they are virus free, but actually are infected?
I've made a mask and intend to wear it during my weekly venture into the grocery store, where social distancing is practically impossible. Even if you do manage to keep a 6 ft distance, everyone is constantly on the move, so you are constantly walking into someone else's aerosol exhale spray.
Expected to be that big but to actually see it is jawdropping
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We really need commercial and residential rent freezes for 3 months. Large leases are going to kill many businesses.
The commercial real estate market is extremely concerned and many are saying how this will cause a chain effect with banks and lenders.
Landlords would be smart to negotiate reduced terms for a few months but major cities seem very vulnerable here.
How does society adapt to these times short and long term? More ordering online for food and retail? Do businesses look to set up shop elsewhere in more spread out areas of the country with advances in technology where they can reduce overhead both in expenses and salaries and help build a more modern environment with better infrastructure. Do people look to move elsewhere with even more tax increases looming in the future to cover for this damage?
How much is the gov't going to help the major cities? NYC's losses will be astronomical imo with all the tourists not coming for the foreseeable future and then you have huge losses in the MTA system with lack of travel and much more work from home strategies. Same with Vegas, D.C., Philly, Florida, and many others.
This is going to kill businesses that had no digital store front. It’s going to rapidly increase digital transformations of businesses like never before. I would imagine more WFH companies will pop-up AND companies that survive will implement even stronger work from home policies.
Good article here on that:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html
I had a personal supply, but I donated almost all of them to the local hospital.
Forget the garbage that was spewed out initially about them not being effective in preventing one from catching the virus. While some validity, IMO, the reasoning was an attempt to avoid a rush on buying up a limited supply. Somehow, they're a necessity for healthcare/front line workers, but ineffective for the average joe?
Never mind that commercial masks aren't going to be readily available to the public for the foreseeable future. Home made masks are ridiculously easy to make, and while not as efficient as commercial masks, they do offer a level of efficiency far above wearing nothing. Around here, there's a plethora of drives to have people make and donate to local healthcare/front line organizations.
While prevention of contracting is probably low-moderate, isn't something better than nothing?
On the flip side, though, they should be good for diminishing the aerosol spray of exhaling (or at least the size of the zone) and spreading the virus. On this one, the experts agree. If wearing were a widespread occurrence , wouldn't this diminish the spreading from folks who think they are virus free, but actually are infected?
I've made a mask and intend to wear it during my weekly venture into the grocery store, where social distancing is practically impossible. Even if you do manage to keep a 6 ft distance, everyone is constantly on the move, so you are constantly walking into someone else's aerosol exhale spray.
The idea that masks aren't effective i see as a two part issue. One being they don't want the general public buying them up when there is desperation at health facilities to get them. The other is you need to fit them properly and remove them properly (I'm talking N95 as opposed to surgical/dust style masks). Plus you also need eye protection.
The couple of times I've gone out to a grocery store I wore mask and gloves and my regular glasses. If i really wanted i could where a P100 filter half mask and goggles but I haven't gone there yet.
Best to just be well stocked and stay home.
The really strange thing is you won't be alone. It's becoming the new norm in some of these heavily infected areas.
Even better models use a metaopulation framework which adjusts the overall parameters for the fact that epidemics can be local and asynchronous.
The point is that a simple exponential model predicting we are close to her immunity, when in fact symptomatic cases and deaths are increasing exponentially is absurd on the face of it.
You’re talking out your ass. No one knows what the right models are. I also tend to lean cautious in my thinking and actions but Oxford and Stanford aren’t a collection of high school students half assing a science project. We’ll take this day by day.
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Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know - ( New Window )
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Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know - ( New Window )
And how many deaths are being reported as covid19 and the person had canxer or some other disease that contributed?
If someone has cancer and they die and tested positive for covid19, how should the death be reported?
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Expect death toll numbers to be underreported
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Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know - ( New Window )
And how many deaths are being reported as covid19 and the person had canxer or some other disease that contributed?
If someone has cancer and they die and tested positive for covid19, how should the death be reported?
Covid19.They could have lived longer but covid 19 put a stop to that. Just like a cancer patient who dies while taking chemotherapy. Chemotherapy is the main culprit destroying the good cells as well as bad cells. But it's always reported death caused by cancer.
The professional medical field needs to be realistic so that reasonably accurate #'s are attained.
Don't want to over/under inflate the statistics.
People aren't dying so fast that a realistic diagnosis can't be reported
If someone has cancer and they die and tested positive for covid19, how should the death be reported?
Autopsies typically list all contributing factors to death, so in this case both would be listed.
This helps understanding the impact of this infection on the sick and what combination risk factors there are.
Lots of even really sick people recover. I assume as a society we'd like to help keep that up.
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In comment 14850019 BigBlueDownTheShore said:
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We are going to surpass Chinas numbers in the next few days. Think about that for a minute. The largest country in the world in terms of population will have had less cases then here in the United States.
China went to drastic measures that we can’t do here and probably stopped it from being a bigger problem, or they drastically fibbed the numbers. ( I think they fibbed the numbers, but I doubt it’s an extremely drastic fib). It ain’t looking great for us.
You look at Spain and Italy in terms of deaths. We are only about 7 days away from that. Our healthcare system is not that much better.
New York State is higher than Spain and Italy in growth rate, and has already past Spain in total number of cases. The viral growth rate is higher in NYC than reported from China. When you adjust for the start date of the epidemic, New York is about the worst situation yet seen. For example, California which started about the same time has a tenth the cases or fewer.
I am not blaming anyone, NY is unique in many ways, but I could not agree more with the post above warning about whistling past the graveyard. The data - ( New Window )
NY (because of NYC) seems to be on its own tract according to this graph. Even the other original places, CA and Wash, seem to have leveled off. Not trying to be flip, but what is unique about NYC? It sure seems like they are unique in their result (vs other states).
NY (because of NYC) seems to be on its own tract according to this graph. Even the other original places, CA and Wash, seem to have leveled off. Not trying to be flip, but what is unique about NYC? It sure seems like they are unique in their result (vs other states).
NY city has the highest population density, is the most visited city in America, and has the highest international visit rate.
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NY (because of NYC) seems to be on its own tract according to this graph. Even the other original places, CA and Wash, seem to have leveled off. Not trying to be flip, but what is unique about NYC? It sure seems like they are unique in their result (vs other states).
NY city has the highest population density, is the most visited city in America, and has the highest international visit rate.
I'd thought all this would be fairly obvious.
That is frightening, and the best evidence yet of how quintessentially serious this situation is for everyone.
With that being said, IF we were to enact policies and lifestyles in the near term capable of reducing the attack rate of this virus (social distancing, staying home, wearing gloves and masks) we may be able to buck the current trend. However, if we don't take this seriously (I'm not saying anyone here isn't)the trajectory is extremely worriesome
Coronavirus tracking comparisons as of March 19th - ( New Window )
With that being said, IF we were to enact policies and lifestyles in the near term capable of reducing the attack rate of this virus (social distancing, staying home, wearing gloves and masks) we may be able to buck the current trend. However, if we don't take this seriously (I'm not saying anyone here isn't)the trajectory is extremely worriesome Coronavirus tracking comparisons as of March 19th - ( New Window )
The growth rate is stunning.
If this is true, and I am not positive about that, but it seems like it could be, comparing fatalities is a fools errand and pointless.
@alessabocchi
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Mar 20
Many have asked why Italy has a higher death rate from Covid19 (7.9%) compared to other countries (3.4% global average). It's not because the population is "older", as many speculate. Japan has a higher median age than Italy, and Japan's peak death rate was 3.6%. The reasons are:
@alessabocchi
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Mar 20
1) Italy is also measuring deaths co-caused by the coronavirus. Most other countries only register deaths exclusively caused by the virus. China, Germany and South Korea, for example, do not measure deaths of people with pre-existing conditions as deaths from Covid19.
@alessabocchi
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Mar 20
2) Italy's healthcare system is at a breaking point in its wealthiest regions. Triage causes more deaths. Even in China's wealthy Hubei province, the most affected, China overall had more resources as the virus affected around 4% of its population (58 million/1.4 billion people).
@alessabocchi
·
Mar 20
2) Italy's healthcare system is at a breaking point in its wealthiest regions. Triage causes more deaths. Even in China's wealthy Hubei province, the most affected, China overall had more resources as the virus affected around 4% of its population (58 million/1.4 billion people).
An underreported and important topic -- healthcare infrastructure and quality varies greatly, regionally in the US.
It will be very telling how the outbreak in Louisiana plays out. That's a better proxy for most of America than NYC.
Is the healthcars apparatus closer to Italy in some parts of our country?
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The better models incorporate unobserved infections. There are classes of people, susceptible, infected, recovered, dead, etc. the models can allow for unobserved infections because they are not really unobserved, they are responsible for the transitions into other classes, such as symptomatic or recovered. So some degree of unobserved infections are baked in to the parameter estimates. Of course, different combinations of parameters can yield similar results, so a higher number of deaths could be due to a greater number of infections, or a greater percent mortality, but this is not a total black box. For example, people don’t just transition from unobserved to dead, they transition through a symptomatic phase and get observed. As new data come in, the model parameters become refined, but they are not off by orders or magnitude as some would have you think.
Even better models use a metaopulation framework which adjusts the overall parameters for the fact that epidemics can be local and asynchronous.
The point is that a simple exponential model predicting we are close to her immunity, when in fact symptomatic cases and deaths are increasing exponentially is absurd on the face of it.
In comment 14850137 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
You’re talking out your ass. No one knows what the right models are. I also tend to lean cautious in my thinking and actions but Oxford and Stanford aren’t a collection of high school students half assing a science project. We’ll take this day by day.
I have published epidemic models in peer reviewed journals myself (not the WSJ) and I know some of the people working on these various models.
There is no right model, but there are models that are more useful than others. I doubt that some back of the napkin description of exponential growth accurately describes SARS-Cov-2 as having one tenth the mortality of the seasonal flu, or correctly predicts the population has reached herd immunity requiring ~50% infection. FWIW, these predictions run counter to our best current estimate that for every symptomatic case, there is about one mild or asymptomatic case. But, there are always unknowns and we'll know soon enough as testing expands.
It is dangerous to use such a verbal argument, one that is well outside the scientific consensus and experiences in the field, to imply we need to take only limited action.
A proper retort to this sort of thinking can be found here (We know enough now to act decisively against Covid-19.])
This is not intended to trigger a debate on the actual Bill, only a summary of what it includes.
We've been talking a lot about furloughs and salary cuts, but this may help us avoid that - at least for the time being.
Summary of the Senate Approved Stimulus Bill - ( New Window )
Ha! Nice. I needed a laugh.
Even better models use a metaopulation framework which adjusts the overall parameters for the fact that epidemics can be local and asynchronous.
The point is that a simple exponential model predicting we are close to her immunity, when in fact symptomatic cases and deaths are increasing exponentially is absurd on the face of it.
As I said, I was not a virologist, but only attempting to backwards-induce model building (since I do that on a regular basis) to see if results they could achieve were plausible.
Thread winner so far! 😉
Mar 20
1) Italy is also measuring deaths co-caused by the coronavirus. Most other countries only register deaths exclusively caused by the virus. China, Germany and South Korea, for example, do not measure deaths of people with pre-existing conditions as deaths from Covid19.[/quote]
Just saw an article yesterday pondering why Germany has such a low death rate even though they have a high number of infections. They banned gatherings over 2 people and they're doing a lot tests, but other than that there's nothing remarkable in how they're tackling this. If they're really not counting deaths of people with pre-existing conditions then that's pretty lazy research on the author's part.
https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1243153800455696384 - ( New Window )
This is also disconcerting.
If this lasts a long time, you may start to see the numbers converge, which would be worrisome. You want those numbers different.
Quote:
The better models incorporate unobserved infections. There are classes of people, susceptible, infected, recovered, dead, etc. the models can allow for unobserved infections because they are not really unobserved, they are responsible for the transitions into other classes, such as symptomatic or recovered. So some degree of unobserved infections are baked in to the parameter estimates. Of course, different combinations of parameters can yield similar results, so a higher number of deaths could be due to a greater number of infections, or a greater percent mortality, but this is not a total black box. For example, people don’t just transition from unobserved to dead, they transition through a symptomatic phase and get observed. As new data come in, the model parameters become refined, but they are not off by orders or magnitude as some would have you think.
Even better models use a metaopulation framework which adjusts the overall parameters for the fact that epidemics can be local and asynchronous.
The point is that a simple exponential model predicting we are close to her immunity, when in fact symptomatic cases and deaths are increasing exponentially is absurd on the face of it.
As I said, I was not a virologist, but only attempting to backwards-induce model building (since I do that on a regular basis) to see if results they could achieve were plausible.
Yes, I saw that. If you want to play around with the classic models, try some of those in the link below. The only time you get sustained exponential increase is at the early phase of the epidemic when the fraction of those having acquired immunity is low. So it makes no sense to use a simple geometric increase to describe the late phase of the epidemic.
Teaching Demography of Epidemics - ( New Window )
It’s why I can’t believe Cuomo still tells everyone 15-20% of cases require hospitalization. No .... 15-20% of high risk / moderate plus symptoms are requiring hospitalization.
We need to move beyond testing at this point and start testing the population for immunity Apparently a company thinks its close on that issue and it’s stock is soaring today (or so I thought I heard on CNBC in the background)
March 26: 37,258 cases
March 21: 10,356 cases
March 16: 950 cases
March 11: 220 cases
March 6: 44 cases
March 1: 1 case
Quote:
In comment 14850016 DonQuixote said:
Quote:
The better models incorporate unobserved infections. There are classes of people, susceptible, infected, recovered, dead, etc. the models can allow for unobserved infections because they are not really unobserved, they are responsible for the transitions into other classes, such as symptomatic or recovered. So some degree of unobserved infections are baked in to the parameter estimates. Of course, different combinations of parameters can yield similar results, so a higher number of deaths could be due to a greater number of infections, or a greater percent mortality, but this is not a total black box. For example, people don’t just transition from unobserved to dead, they transition through a symptomatic phase and get observed. As new data come in, the model parameters become refined, but they are not off by orders or magnitude as some would have you think.
Even better models use a metaopulation framework which adjusts the overall parameters for the fact that epidemics can be local and asynchronous.
The point is that a simple exponential model predicting we are close to her immunity, when in fact symptomatic cases and deaths are increasing exponentially is absurd on the face of it.
As I said, I was not a virologist, but only attempting to backwards-induce model building (since I do that on a regular basis) to see if results they could achieve were plausible.
Yes, I saw that. If you want to play around with the classic models, try some of those in the link below. The only time you get sustained exponential increase is at the early phase of the epidemic when the fraction of those having acquired immunity is low. So it makes no sense to use a simple geometric increase to describe the late phase of the epidemic. Teaching Demography of Epidemics - ( New Window )
Thanks for the resource. Probably won't utilize it much; we don't use these models much in my branch of Economics (Health, Regional, and Labor).
March 26: 37,258 cases
March 21: 10,356 cases
March 16: 950 cases
March 11: 220 cases
March 6: 44 cases
March 1: 1 case
How many are hospitilized? how many are in icu? how many have recovered? only numbers that matter..
Quote:
Coronavirus outbreak, New York:
March 26: 37,258 cases
March 21: 10,356 cases
March 16: 950 cases
March 11: 220 cases
March 6: 44 cases
March 1: 1 case
How many are hospitilized? how many are in icu? how many have recovered? only numbers that matter..
Not really, since whatever those numbers are they are growing too and we know they are are high enough that if the trend continues there will eventually be a breaking point.
It all starts with slowing the spread and breaking the trend above - Bill Gates did an hour interview yesterday and he does a great job explaining how this all comes down to the exponential rates of growth and how dramatic the differences can be. Anything above 1 grows very quickly and anything under 1 dies quickly. I believe he said China got theirs down to .4 and that's how they were able to get control after about 6 weeks of shutdown.
Quote:
In comment 14850381 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:
Coronavirus outbreak, New York:
March 26: 37,258 cases
March 21: 10,356 cases
March 16: 950 cases
March 11: 220 cases
March 6: 44 cases
March 1: 1 case
How many are hospitilized? how many are in icu? how many have recovered? only numbers that matter..
Not really, since whatever those numbers are they are growing too and we know they are are high enough that if the trend continues there will eventually be a breaking point.
It all starts with slowing the spread and breaking the trend above - Bill Gates did an hour interview yesterday and he does a great job explaining how this all comes down to the exponential rates of growth and how dramatic the differences can be. Anything above 1 grows very quickly and anything under 1 dies quickly. I believe he said China got theirs down to .4 and that's how they were able to get control after about 6 weeks of shutdown.
just stating the overall number does nothing but cause fear that is not needed..the number of course is rising because is testing a lot more..
the number of hospitilizstions tells you how thr hospitals are doing, the number of people in icu tells you how many ventilators are being used..
the number that have recovered is something positive people can hold onto..
the overall number tells you nothing with no contest..
for example without actually showing todays numbers you wouldnt know it was less than yesterdays
Link - ( New Window )
here's a link to the Gates interview from yesterday for anyone who cares. Around the 25 minute mark he talks about what the top priority needs to be to drive down the exponential spread.
How we must respond to the COVID-19 pandemic | Bill Gates - ( New Window )
Bill Gates talks a lot about the importance of testing and where some of the developments are right now with the self swabbing in the link I just posted.
The TLDR is widespread testing and isolation are the 2 things we can do that will get us back to normal fastest.
It’s why I can’t believe Cuomo still tells everyone 15-20% of cases require hospitalization. No .... 15-20% of high risk / moderate plus symptoms are requiring hospitalization.
We need to move beyond testing at this point and start testing the population for immunity Apparently a company thinks its close on that issue and it’s stock is soaring today (or so I thought I heard on CNBC in the background)
Nobody knows for sure how many current infections are out there unobserved, but some populations have been tested relatively intensely (Iceland, Singapore, Cruise Ships) and the consensus is that ~50% or less cases escape detection by virtue of the fact that they are mild or asymptomatic.
Another unobserved fraction that affects the course of the epidemic are those that are resistant to infection, perhaps due to immune clearance from past infection. This number can get quite large until herd immunity is reached. That might be the case if the epidemic has been around for a while. However, as the fraction of resistant individuals gets reasonably high, the number of new infections declines. Exponential increase is therefore only at the start of the epidemic. It is difficult to imagine a model that has a high frequency of resistant individuals, yet shows exponential growth in symptomatic individuals.
It’s why I can’t believe Cuomo still tells everyone 15-20% of cases require hospitalization. No .... 15-20% of high risk / moderate plus symptoms are requiring hospitalization.
We need to move beyond testing at this point and start testing the population for immunity Apparently a company thinks its close on that issue and it’s stock is soaring today (or so I thought I heard on CNBC in the background)
He's probably telling people that because technically its true of confirmed cases, and hyping the numbers keeps people from interacting in public as little as possible to scare the shit out of them. The UK is currently sending out 3.5 million tests for antibodies I linked. This will be huge for our response moving forward.
Just look at the number of people in the US who have completed the full cycle of Covid19. They either recovered from it, or died
There Are 1,668 currently in the Us who have had a confirmed case of Covide19
There are 619 who have recovered
Do the math, and that is NOT good
And that’s BEFORE hospitals have been overwhelmed.
Debate it all you want, but that is a truly frightening fact to look at
I get a call that our 88 year old COVID patient is desatting on 6L supplemental O2 via nasal canula. So we put her on a non-rebreather. I get a call that she’s desatting down to the mid-80s when talking in long sentences despite the 100% oxygen she’s receiving via mask. The nurse is spooked, and the current plan is to do a Full Code should she tank. So the patient and I get to have The Talk.
The Talk is basically asking people if they want to receive (often futile) CPR that cracks their ribs as they die, or if they would prefer to be attached to machines when they die. But I don’t put it like that. I say things like “chest compressions” and “a plastic tube down your throat” but made it clear that if she were to be sedated for the intubation, she may never wake up. And despite our plans and treatments, her body is taking actions that will most likely (but we can never say guaranteed) going to end her life. Not today, but it’s a good time to put things in order.
The patient said her daughters want everything to be done for her, but she doesn’t want to be on machines when she dies. I said that was reasonable. She asked me what I would do, and what I would want for my mother.
I’m not proud of this next part.
I told the truth. I said that my mom and I have worked in medicine, and she would never want to be intubated if it was a long shot she’d ever recover. I told her I recently only rescinded my own Do Not Intubate order because were I to get COVID and need intubation, I’m a young, healthy guy who could survive it. But were I hit by a truck and braindead, I’d never want to be intubated. She said she’d call her daughter back and explain things.
I get a call later saying this very sharp 88 year old lady has signed the form declaring her Do Not Resuscitate / Do Not Intubate.
Decisions are already being made
3 Days of Inpatient Care in New York - ( New Window )
Quote:
Thanks for your response. How do you know For every case there is 1 mild or asymptomatic case? We aren’t mass testing.... I’ve mentioned my wife and nanny who live in Westchester ... can’t get a test. No fever, not in a high risk category... no test Doctors won’t see them - they just say stay home and be patient.
It’s why I can’t believe Cuomo still tells everyone 15-20% of cases require hospitalization. No .... 15-20% of high risk / moderate plus symptoms are requiring hospitalization.
We need to move beyond testing at this point and start testing the population for immunity Apparently a company thinks its close on that issue and it’s stock is soaring today (or so I thought I heard on CNBC in the background)
Nobody knows for sure how many current infections are out there unobserved, but some populations have been tested relatively intensely (Iceland, Singapore, Cruise Ships) and the consensus is that ~50% or less cases escape detection by virtue of the fact that they are mild or asymptomatic.
Another unobserved fraction that affects the course of the epidemic are those that are resistant to infection, perhaps due to immune clearance from past infection. This number can get quite large until herd immunity is reached. That might be the case if the epidemic has been around for a while. However, as the fraction of resistant individuals gets reasonably high, the number of new infections declines. Exponential increase is therefore only at the start of the epidemic. It is difficult to imagine a model that has a high frequency of resistant individuals, yet shows exponential growth in symptomatic individuals.
Thanks Don,
I was trying to explain the same things, but to no avail. You seem to have put it in a way that it seems people are grasping better.
And obviously I agree that the data points to the fact we are still early in the spread, the exponential curve wasn't slowing until suppression measures were instituted. Those suppression measure can make the curve look like we are reaching an apex and herd immunity. But that is a false image. The suppression attempts reduce the R0 and change the natural curve. Release the suppression and the natural curve comes back.
In fact with enough data (assuming the data isn't too noisy), you can measure curves of hospitalizations, ICU patients, and deaths and infer the number of infections. All curves follow the same pattern but the hospitalizations, ICU patients and deaths are a fraction of infections. One the shape of the curve for the fractional values starts changing, you can infer the approximate level of herd immunity and therefore the number of prior infections. Even though the data we have is noisy, it is abundantly clear we haven't reached a measurable inflection point in those curves. Thus we can infer minimal herd immunity and only a small fraction of the population has been infected.
Quote:
I get a call that our 88 year old COVID patient is desatting on 6L supplemental O2 via nasal canula. So we put her on a non-rebreather. I get a call that she’s desatting down to the mid-80s when talking in long sentences despite the 100% oxygen she’s receiving via mask. The nurse is spooked, and the current plan is to do a Full Code should she tank. So the patient and I get to have The Talk.
The Talk is basically asking people if they want to receive (often futile) CPR that cracks their ribs as they die, or if they would prefer to be attached to machines when they die. But I don’t put it like that. I say things like “chest compressions” and “a plastic tube down your throat” but made it clear that if she were to be sedated for the intubation, she may never wake up. And despite our plans and treatments, her body is taking actions that will most likely (but we can never say guaranteed) going to end her life. Not today, but it’s a good time to put things in order.
The patient said her daughters want everything to be done for her, but she doesn’t want to be on machines when she dies. I said that was reasonable. She asked me what I would do, and what I would want for my mother.
I’m not proud of this next part.
I told the truth. I said that my mom and I have worked in medicine, and she would never want to be intubated if it was a long shot she’d ever recover. I told her I recently only rescinded my own Do Not Intubate order because were I to get COVID and need intubation, I’m a young, healthy guy who could survive it. But were I hit by a truck and braindead, I’d never want to be intubated. She said she’d call her daughter back and explain things.
I get a call later saying this very sharp 88 year old lady has signed the form declaring her Do Not Resuscitate / Do Not Intubate.
Decisions are already being made 3 Days of Inpatient Care in New York - ( New Window )
This was a medically appropriate decision even before COVID.
Determining the death rate is difficult not only because there are large numbers of undetected, but there are large number of deaths that are not reported accurately. So both the numerator and denominator are in flux. However, outside of China, neither is off by orders of magnitude.
Maybe the virus won't work well in those environments, but we'll see.
We had 3.3 million initial unemployment claims. That will (likely) be revised up significantly.
Maybe the virus won't work well in those environments, but we'll see.
There have been stories about it ripping through India... They don't have significant testing or healthcare to speak of there and nothing gets officially tallied. But reports from the ground paint a grim picture.
Determining the death rate is difficult not only because there are large numbers of undetected, but there are large number of deaths that are not reported accurately. So both the numerator and denominator are in flux. However, outside of China, neither is off by orders of magnitude.
Sorry to be so dense, but do we actually know anything at all about growth in the number of infected people here -- or are we just picking up more who have it or have had it for a while because we are testing more? How do we know the answer to this? I note we remain selective in our testing in ways that vary from test site to test site (not the right symptoms or enough of them or too old or infirm or burdens being imposed by cases that seem critical or serious or sudden bursts of "new" cases or deaths), surely screwing up assessments of what the test results in the aggregate mean.
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about at most there are 50% unobserved cases. As you mentioned, there have been multiple tests of entire local populations. In all cases there have been about 50% that had thus far gone undetected. What is more, there was a percentage of those that went undetected that later got sick enough that they would have been detected. So the ultimate rate of undetected is less than 50%, not orders of magnitude more.
Determining the death rate is difficult not only because there are large numbers of undetected, but there are large number of deaths that are not reported accurately. So both the numerator and denominator are in flux. However, outside of China, neither is off by orders of magnitude.
Sorry to be so dense, but do we actually know anything at all about growth in the number of infected people here -- or are we just picking up more who have it or have had it for a while because we are testing more? How do we know the answer to this? I note we remain selective in our testing in ways that vary from test site to test site (not the right symptoms or enough of them or too old or infirm or burdens being imposed by cases that seem critical or serious or sudden bursts of "new" cases or deaths), surely screwing up assessments of what the test results in the aggregate mean.
No we don't and in the US the "percent undetected" may be higher because we a re refusing test to people who are likely positive. However, I was making the point earlier, that if you are accurately tracking hospitalizations, icu patients, and deaths, that those curves should match the large curve of infections. They are all proportional, with various lag times. When those curve start to bend naturally, then you can fit the curve for infections because that bend only occurs when the right percentage of the population has immunity. So you can mathematically back your way into the number of infections. Problem is, we are still so early in the epidemic that there has been no natural bend. With 37K infected in the NYC metro area where there is a population of about 21M we know that the curve was not bending until social distancing suppressed it. That implies that herd immunity (and thus infections) are well below 100x the number of infections. I.E. it isn't orders of magnitude.
> 50 : 216
< 50 : 235
Within the over 50's it actually goes down for each successive 10 year age group.
Personally, I think every statistical model here is useless when there has been no consistency on how number of infections is counted. The number of infections is directly related to the number of and criteria of testing. The criteria of testing has been inconsistent is the U.S. Its easier ( although still difficult) to get a test in California than it is in NYC. Even within California different counties, sometimes even different healthcare groups have different criteria for testing.
I wonder if the only semi-reliable statistic is the number of deaths.
Link - ( New Window )
Determining the death rate is difficult not only because there are large numbers of undetected, but there are large number of deaths that are not reported accurately. So both the numerator and denominator are in flux. However, outside of China, neither is off by orders of magnitude.
Agree with this and your previous post.
'But being a month or so into this and having 600 dead with just 21 in the last 24 hours at least gives a glimmer of hope.'
We finished with 247 reported deaths yesterday.
2,492 increase...
I realize there is more testing, but WOW.
'But being a month or so into this and having 600 dead with just 21 in the last 24 hours at least gives a glimmer of hope.'
We finished with 247 reported deaths yesterday.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but as you said, its midday and worldometer is showing 114 so far.
> 50 : 216
< 50 : 235
Within the over 50's it actually goes down for each successive 10 year age group.
Personally, I think every statistical model here is useless when there has been no consistency on how number of infections is counted. The number of infections is directly related to the number of and criteria of testing. The criteria of testing has been inconsistent is the U.S. Its easier ( although still difficult) to get a test in California than it is in NYC. Even within California different counties, sometimes even different healthcare groups have different criteria for testing.
I wonder if the only semi-reliable statistic is the number of deaths. Link - ( New Window )
when you count cases, you have to consider the number of people in those age groups. In California, something like 65% of people are under 50, and the number of Californians in each age class declines with age. roughly half the population is under 40 and the age classes get smaller and smaller as they get older and older. So that all makes sense.
In California, ~3% of the population is over 80, but so far in that county 6% of the infected patients are over 80.
CA Demographics - ( New Window )
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Could easily be because we're only halfway through the day and don't have full reporting. Yesterday afternoon someone stated that there were only 16 deaths in the last 24 hours, using mid-day numbers:
'But being a month or so into this and having 600 dead with just 21 in the last 24 hours at least gives a glimmer of hope.'
We finished with 247 reported deaths yesterday.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but as you said, its midday and worldometer is showing 114 so far.
Right. Yesterday at this time it was a low #.
I've been using the same site - ( New Window )
Quote:
Coronavirus outbreak, New York:
March 26: 37,258 cases
March 21: 10,356 cases
March 16: 950 cases
March 11: 220 cases
March 6: 44 cases
March 1: 1 case
How many are hospitilized? how many are in icu? how many have recovered? only numbers that matter..
Those are the ONLY numbers that matter?
2,492 increase...
I realize there is more testing, but WOW.
Nj is probably testing more than anyone besides new york, 2 state run sites and a bunch of county wide testing sites for county residents..
i was surprised by that number and i am one of the positive people o here
Quote:
In comment 14850381 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:
Coronavirus outbreak, New York:
March 26: 37,258 cases
March 21: 10,356 cases
March 16: 950 cases
March 11: 220 cases
March 6: 44 cases
March 1: 1 case
How many are hospitilized? how many are in icu? how many have recovered? only numbers that matter..
Those are the ONLY numbers that matter?
and death numbers, total numbers is eye popping but it doesnt give the whole story..
PACKED. People crammed in 10 deep at the paint counter. Whole families with multiple kids in tow. I parked and observed the landscaping section they were lined up one on top of the other picking out flowers.
People were just out browsing because they're bored after being home for a couple of days and now the sun is shining.
Nobody taking it seriously.
Link - ( New Window )
I wish that it just stuck to the numbers and left out the blaming.
First of all I hear people (authorities in some cases, but also average people) asking the federal government for more.
Then I have heard on TV press conferences (including right now from Charlie Baker) and I've read many states ask the Federal Government NOT to big against them to procure PPE from providers. I assume because the Feds would win.
So, which is it, is the Federal Government expected to provide PPE to the states or are the states expected to get it themselves or some combination? If it's the Fed, are they then expected to distribute it to the states? Seems convoluted.
Seems like it would slow the process down.
I don't understand how FEMA and the state EMA's work (assuming it's FEMA who provides the PPE), but I imagine this process of PPE distribution would remain standard from admin to admin.
Then I read Cuomo maybe said NY has enough PPE for the foreseeable future (I read this, but didn't hear it directly from him), but then I read tweets and anecdotes from front line providers in NY hospitals wearing underwear on their heads or trash bags because they don't have PPE.
PPE sounds like one of the biggest risks right now to keep our healthcare providers functioning at their peak, and it seems like a big clusterfuck.
PACKED. People crammed in 10 deep at the paint counter. Whole families with multiple kids in tow. I parked and observed the landscaping section they were lined up one on top of the other picking out flowers.
People were just out browsing because they're bored after being home for a couple of days and now the sun is shining.
Nobody taking it seriously.
Tennessee really shit the bed in its response. Look at the comparison between Tennessee and Kentucky. Granted, Tennessee has Nashville which attracts more tourists than Kentucky, but still, it's staggering.
I'm not surprise at all by the numbers as this is what we have been told for weeks would happen.
Actually being told it and now actually experiencing it are two different situations, of course.
I expected it to get rather shitty and it is rather shitty.
Let's get thru March and hopefully sometime in early April, we can start down the right side of this curve.
Got my German Shepard, wifey at night, home gym, weather fairly decent in Norcal, good shows on netflix, hulu, prime
Still working but happy as a clam being home
If its July and no vacations, may get a little stir crazy
but I am just writing off 2020 as lost yr
any vacations in 2nd half of yr are gravy
Just crossing fingers for health
He died from COVID-19.
RIP Mark Blum - ( New Window )
Got my German Shepard, wifey at night, home gym, weather fairly decent in Norcal, good shows on netflix, hulu, prime
Still working but happy as a clam being home
If its July and no vacations, may get a little stir crazy
but I am just writing off 2020 as lost yr
any vacations in 2nd half of yr are gravy
Just crossing fingers for health
PACKED. People crammed in 10 deep at the paint counter. Whole families with multiple kids in tow. I parked and observed the landscaping section they were lined up one on top of the other picking out flowers.
People were just out browsing because they're bored after being home for a couple of days and now the sun is shining.
Nobody taking it seriously.
I brought this up earlier in the week. Whole families at Costco. I would like to see stores start to get a little more aggressive and at the entrances stop the families and only allow 1 adult in the store.
But I enjoy even 50's as long as its sunny
Guess its the Mid Hudson valley NY in me.
CNN
@CNN
· 1h
Experts have a warning for people looking at coronavirus data between countries: Nations have different reporting standards, different approaches to testing and different approaches to tracing cases, which can make such comparisons dangerously misleading. https://cnn.it/2UBpplW
I don't think it was common knowledge, maybe it is.
I think the average person reads those Coronavirus stat charts with an assumption that each column was calculated the same way for each country making comparisons more meaningful.
I'm sure you and some of the other experts on here were well aware, but I doubt the general public is aware.
not sure though.
I see people outside my house taking walks all day long, almost all of them are not from my neighborhood. A group of about 15 people (6 or 7 carrying beer in Solo cups) formed a group outside my house all in close quarters (think 2 to 3 feet apart) just chatting for 30 minutes.
Seems like another disconnect:
Quoting anybody from those briefings but Fauci is straying into political territory... Let's not do that.
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
Quoting anybody from those briefings but Fauci is straying into political territory... Let's not do that.
Really? Birx, like Fauci, is a holdover form prior admins.
not unique to this one.
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
Lol ok.
As long as you say so. Must be true.
Quoting anybody from those briefings but Fauci is straying into political territory... Let's not do that.
several states, VT, VA, and others.
Yep! And throw in righteous, arrogant self-entitlement.
In COVID-19 cases.
More than China; more than Italy.
I think the article is way off, even if you use their own logic.
They predict that by March 14 we had accumulated 1.6 million infections, which will translate into 12,800 accumulated deaths by April 7, 24 days later.
1) The model is nothing more than a description of the accumulation of deaths, doubling every 3 days from 205 on March 19. There is no need to estimate underlying infections, so it sounds sophisticated but is not.
2) They cited their sources incorrectly. They said it takes 24 days to go from infection to death, when the paper they cite estimates a mean of 17. This throws off their estimate of the number of underlying infections by a factor of 4.
3) Corrected, their own model predicts infections of 6000 individuals (not 25K) on Feb 25, and 400,000 (not 1.6 million) by March 14 when mitigation efforts began. Respectfully, that's still a lot more cases than are reported, but this number depends strongly on using mortality rate (which is unknown) to predict underlying infections. If the mortality rate were 1.6%, the predicted number of underlying infections would be halved.
4) Using their model, but using the correct intervals, the accumulated deaths under their model would be ~3200 by April 1, and would only go up to 12,800 by April 7 if mitigation efforts after 3/14 had zero effect.
Just saying...
he's not going to override the science or health professionals. He's giving people hope.
My guess is they will come up with some kind of slow-reopen.
but no he would not be liable, just like you can't sue China for causing this, lying about it, covering it up, and having a propaganda campaign about it.
I believe local State Governors have final say about when businesses can re-open. That's not under Federal/Presidential control. As for Presidential liability, I doubt it.
In COVID-19 cases.
More than China; more than Italy.
Reported by Dylan Stableford:
• Coronavirus cases surpassed 525,000 worldwide, with more than 23,000 deaths.
• The United States now leads the world with more than 82,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, overtaking China and Italy.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14850786 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
Quoting anybody from those briefings but Fauci is straying into political territory... Let's not do that.
Really? Birx, like Fauci, is a holdover form prior admins.
not unique to this one.
Dr Birx is a respected authority on diseases
She was Dir of the Military HIV Research Program
She was Dir of CDC Global Division on HIV/Aids
She was nominated and confirmed by Obama as the Global Aids coordinator for the US
She's been published in numerous technical publications
I believe her like I believe Fauci.
Quote:
In COVID-19 cases.
More than China; more than Italy.
Reported by Dylan Stableford:
• Coronavirus cases surpassed 525,000 worldwide, with more than 23,000 deaths.
• The United States now leads the world with more than 82,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, overtaking China and Italy. Link - ( New Window )
It's been posted many times on here, but country to country comparisons are meaningless for many reasons.
also, the USA is more than 5 times the size of Italy, if you can trust death stats the one that is relevant would be per capita and Italy (and most of Europe) is far worse off than the US.
Lastly, China is very likely lying.
@steve_hanke
· 8h
Behind the scenes of #China's "zero case" act, #Hospitals are refusing to treat potential #COVID19 victims to keep their new cases #'s low.
Never trust the #CCP. #CommunismKills.
link - ( New Window )
She qualified everything by saying "right now".
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
She qualified everything by saying "right now".
No shit.
Which is why I said “so far” in my post above.
Quote:
In comment 14850786 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
Quoting anybody from those briefings but Fauci is straying into political territory... Let's not do that.
Really? Birx, like Fauci, is a holdover form prior admins.
not unique to this one.
Birx, as a physician, is fantastically clear about COVID-19 and helpful. Cuts through some bad theory and bad numbers out there.
Linked article also posits why the virus is so highly transmittable by asymptomatic carries.
I actually feel like I might already be well enough to start hosting some Eagles fans in my quarantine cave. (Kidding...).
Stat News on possible virus shed traits - ( New Window )
First of all I hear people (authorities in some cases, but also average people) asking the federal government for more.
Then I have heard on TV press conferences (including right now from Charlie Baker) and I've read many states ask the Federal Government NOT to big against them to procure PPE from providers. I assume because the Feds would win.
So, which is it, is the Federal Government expected to provide PPE to the states or are the states expected to get it themselves or some combination? If it's the Fed, are they then expected to distribute it to the states? Seems convoluted.
Seems like it would slow the process down.
I don't understand how FEMA and the state EMA's work (assuming it's FEMA who provides the PPE), but I imagine this process of PPE distribution would remain standard from admin to admin.
Then I read Cuomo maybe said NY has enough PPE for the foreseeable future (I read this, but didn't hear it directly from him), but then I read tweets and anecdotes from front line providers in NY hospitals wearing underwear on their heads or trash bags because they don't have PPE.
PPE sounds like one of the biggest risks right now to keep our healthcare providers functioning at their peak, and it seems like a big clusterfuck.
It's not a disconnect, it's a free for all. Every governor is saying they same thing - they are competing with every other needy constituency in the country to get the PPE from manufacturers who are turned into defacto decision makers of who wins the bids and gets the PPE. All bidding each other up in the process. Baker and Pritzker are both rightfully pissed if they can't get what they need because NY and CA and Fed Gov are outbidding them for PPE. It is thunderdome. It is like an offensive coordinator telling each individual player on the field to run whatever play they want. I don't even think you can blame the manufacturers, I mean, how are they supposed to know who needs what most?
It's not hard to figure out which entity has the jurisdiction that they could be the coordinator or QB in this analogy, organizing the logistics across state lines in priority order based on need (not price). It is hard to explore the question without politics coming into play though.
Link - ( New Window )
Linked article also posits why the virus is so highly transmittable by asymptomatic carries.
I actually feel like I might already be well enough to start hosting some Eagles fans in my quarantine cave. (Kidding...). Stat News on possible virus shed traits - ( New Window )
Great link! And way glad you're getting better.
Quote:
I had to make a Home Depot run. Thought I could dash in, grab a bucket of drywall compound and dash out. I really should be sheltering in place but I figured zip in zip out.
PACKED. People crammed in 10 deep at the paint counter. Whole families with multiple kids in tow. I parked and observed the landscaping section they were lined up one on top of the other picking out flowers.
People were just out browsing because they're bored after being home for a couple of days and now the sun is shining.
Nobody taking it seriously.
Tennessee really shit the bed in its response. Look at the comparison between Tennessee and Kentucky. Granted, Tennessee has Nashville which attracts more tourists than Kentucky, but still, it's staggering.
Yeah I have been impressed with Beshear's handling of this so far.
Linked article also posits why the virus is so highly transmittable by asymptomatic carries.
I actually feel like I might already be well enough to start hosting some Eagles fans in my quarantine cave. (Kidding...). Stat News on possible virus shed traits - ( New Window )
That's great news and the same boat that I'm in. I've felt pretty much fine since Monday. Every day that goes by I feel a little better (more energy) etc and mostly all the symptoms are now gone. So I started this ordeal on Monday, March 16th. So I'm on day 11, I haven't had a fever since the weekend. To be safe I'm going to keep myself away in the basement until Sunday night and at that point I think I should be 100% recovered and not able to spread it. I should be getting the results back this weekend to know if it was or wasn't (I'd be stunned if it's negative).
What I would really like to do and know, and I would hope the CDC could provide guidelines is how can those of us that have recovered help? Is it providing antibodies for a vaccine? Maybe help in being able to provide supplies to at risk people knowing that we no longer are a risk of spreading the disease.
Posted earlier, I wonder how much the asthma played a part. I would imagine a lot.
if so that should be an encouraging thought to all of us - it can be contained with the right actions.
We now have 3.8 million initial claims. From the first week of a barely passed law.
There are 12.5 million workers in the food and drinking service industry. There are 2.3 million workers in the hotel industry.
Average hourly earnings of hotel industry is about $17/hour (~ 26 hours per week). Average hourly earnings of food service industry is about $15.50/hour (~25.6 hours per week).
We lost $1.6 billion in direct productivity in one week. Yikes.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489684-exclusive-top-cdc-official-warns-new-yorks-coronavirus-outbreak-is-just-a
Quote:
I had to make a Home Depot run. Thought I could dash in, grab a bucket of drywall compound and dash out. I really should be sheltering in place but I figured zip in zip out.
PACKED. People crammed in 10 deep at the paint counter. Whole families with multiple kids in tow. I parked and observed the landscaping section they were lined up one on top of the other picking out flowers.
People were just out browsing because they're bored after being home for a couple of days and now the sun is shining.
Nobody taking it seriously.
Tennessee really shit the bed in its response. Look at the comparison between Tennessee and Kentucky. Granted, Tennessee has Nashville which attracts more tourists than Kentucky, but still, it's staggering.
The state is run by the owner of the Browns! What did you expect!
Everywhere I look I see "of course increased testing has something to do with the number of reported cases" but in my mind it's disingenuous to simply state this without making a real effort to mathematically account for that aspect of the "reported cases" number. Just look at the chart in the CDC link below showing the number of tests in the U.S since the beginning of this month (I know for those intensely following this this is not news, I purposely just chose the most black-and-white representation of the testing).
Please note I am NOT in this to make any point/opinion about what people's appropriate panic levels are supposed to be right now, trust me. I'm happy we're all panicking because it's keeping everyone inside. I've been an actuary for close to 10 years and I'm purely interested in getting the numbers right to put together my own little trend-line and forecast (which will inevitably be incorrect but gives me something to do).
Number of Specimens tested for COVID-19 in the U.S. in 2020 - ( New Window )
3h
I’m worried about emerging situations in New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, among others. In China no province outside Hubei ever had more than 1,500 cases. In U.S. 11 states already hit that total. Our epidemic is likely to be national in scope.
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2020/03/26/israeli-firm-donates-to-u-s-ten-million-pills-touted-by-trump-for-coronavirus-treatment/
That is a matter of opinion...
In comment 14850786 Chris684 said:
I guess Italy is not on the ground...
Spain is not on the ground...
NYC is not on the ground...
NJ is not on the ground...
India shutting down a country of 1.3B because they can't control the spread is not on the ground...
The exhausted doctors and nurses crying for PPE, supplies and equipment are not on the ground...
Those same doctors and nurses describing the hospitals scenes as "apocalyptic" (their word not mine)
the 17K new infection in the US on March 26th are not on the ground...
The 220+ people who died in the USA on March 26th are not on the ground...
The refrigerator trailers that they have backed up to hospitals for all the corpses, is not on the ground...
The 1000s currently fighting for their lives right now are not on the ground...
The evidence of what happens everywhere when this virus is allowed to spread uncontrolled is not on the ground...
The 100s of epidemiological experts that say we are still on the exponential upswing and are nowhere near the peak are not on the ground...
Let me say this, I for one, have a very different view about what is happening on the ground. I have a friend who is a doctor in his 40s, he has 3 sons the oldest is 11, he is infected and very sick on oxygen right now. I am personally acquainted with 2 others who have it 1 seems mild the other was hospitalized yesterday.
To say that there is no evidence on the ground to support the models, and to say that we are in better shape than "people" thought, is at best highly irresponsible. People will hear that and start breaking shelter at home orders. We already see stupid Americans partying on beaches, crowding into Home Depo, forming ad hoc groups of 15+ on the street without any distance. Hearing what she said will only exacerbate this behavior and cost lives.
Are the numbers uncertain? sure...
Can we be 100% certain about any model? No
Is this doomsday, the end of mankind? No
But we have plenty of evidence on the ground that this is a very dangerous disease, it spreads incredibly fast, it causes enough severe disease to overwhelm hospitals, it has long term health effects for survivors due to scarring the lungs (something that isn't talked about nearly enough). The evidence is strong enough to know that this bad, very bad. We won't have near perfect telemetry and be able to provide highly accurate models on this disease for a decade to come... Does that mean there isn't be enough evidence on the ground to know this is really really bad and just getting started, of course not.
What she said about lack of evidence just pure bullpucky.
The only thing not on the ground is her head when she said those things, it was lost somewhere in the clouds.
I saw several interviews this evening of epidemiologists and virologists take issue with her words in the same way I am.
She has said other things that while maybe not a direct contradiction to Fauci certainly didn't jive either.
She has said lots of good things, but plenty of things to take issue with as well.
There are lots of models out there, we don't have enough data at this time to figure out which one is the best. It is possible we are avoiding the worst case ones, but it is imperative that people continue to follow social distancing guidelines and shelter at home orders where they have been given.
Do you see the difference?
She talked about revising a model that predicted in the UK 500K dead down to 20K. She talked about how none of the models match what has been seen in every country. She talked about how they are trying to improve the data. She talked about it is hard to tell if we are only detecting the tip of the iceberg as far as infections and the spread rate is much different than what they thought, or something else is going on. She basically said that they don't have a model which fits all the data. I have no issues with any of this...
There were several comments that were made that have stirred issues:
1) “There’s no … reality on the ground where we can see that 60 to 70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks,”
This was discussed in the interviews in the interviews with the epidemiologists. Since we are already at 85K and doubling every 2.5 days this is a false statement. Lets slow the doubling rate and say it is every 3 days, then it would take 30 to 35 days to get to 60M, at a 5 day doubling rate it takes 50 - 55 days to get the 60M infections. This seems to be our fate unless there are serious suppression methods undertaken. Even if serious suppression measures are undertaken, it appears the curve will flatten, but elongate, its not clear how long it will stretch out, but 60 - 70M infections over the course of 12 weeks is still within the realm of possiblity.
2) I can't find the exact quote, but I see in headlines something like "Reality is better than predicted". It wasn't made in the long statement about models, I have seen both the clip of that and the transcript, so I don't know the full context...
This was also discussed in interviews with doctors from NYC, and basically it doesn't go down well with professionals in NYC right now.
3) "Talking about creating D.N.R. situations, do not resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion"
This also didn't go down well with NYC professionals, certain patients do not take well to being intubated. They would have to be sedated. CPR can break their ribs puncturing the heart and lungs. CPR also puts the doctors and nurses at risk of catching the disease. Given how rarely somebody who requires CPR actually survives COVID-19, it is a perfectly reasonable discussion to have. The doctors and nurses in the discussions said that they have resuscitated people, but that in all cases the person eventually died.
4) Comments about respirators being available in NY...
Again, doctors and nurses in NYC didn't agree with this.
My apologies that I reacted to what Chris684 said without fact checking it... But nowhere did Birx say this:
In comment 14850786 Chris684 said:
1 more comment Birx made with which I am uncomfortable. She talked about revising the Imperial College study wayyy down. Now, I have issues with the fact that study used Chinese data, as well as some of their assumptions seemed off to me. However, Birx offered no explanation or evidence behind why they are revising those numbers so far down. If anything, data from SK, Italy and Spain suggests that COVID-19 is more lethal than the Imperial College study assumed. The only explanation I can figure (which jives with comment 1 above) is that they believe there will be far fewer infections. Given the R0 of this thing and the lack of nationwide suppression efforts, I'm not sure you can make that assumption either.
Quote:
Based on the number of reported deaths. Holding up really well so far, which is frightening. Link - ( New Window )
I think the article is way off, even if you use their own logic.
They predict that by March 14 we had accumulated 1.6 million infections, which will translate into 12,800 accumulated deaths by April 7, 24 days later.
1) The model is nothing more than a description of the accumulation of deaths, doubling every 3 days from 205 on March 19. There is no need to estimate underlying infections, so it sounds sophisticated but is not.
2) They cited their sources incorrectly. They said it takes 24 days to go from infection to death, when the paper they cite estimates a mean of 17. This throws off their estimate of the number of underlying infections by a factor of 4.
3) Corrected, their own model predicts infections of 6000 individuals (not 25K) on Feb 25, and 400,000 (not 1.6 million) by March 14 when mitigation efforts began. Respectfully, that's still a lot more cases than are reported, but this number depends strongly on using mortality rate (which is unknown) to predict underlying infections. If the mortality rate were 1.6%, the predicted number of underlying infections would be halved.
4) Using their model, but using the correct intervals, the accumulated deaths under their model would be ~3200 by April 1, and would only go up to 12,800 by April 7 if mitigation efforts after 3/14 had zero effect.
Just saying...
You misread #2. Their source says 17 days from symptoms to death, they are calculating from infection to death. You then incorrectly “corrected” their model. Good job.
Quote:
Is perhaps the most egregious thing yet on that posters series of misstatements on this thread. Woman is essentially a national hero but hey let’s throw out one of the most impressive medical viral resumes in history.
That is a matter of opinion...
In comment 14850786 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
I guess Italy is not on the ground...
Spain is not on the ground...
NYC is not on the ground...
NJ is not on the ground...
India shutting down a country of 1.3B because they can't control the spread is not on the ground...
The exhausted doctors and nurses crying for PPE, supplies and equipment are not on the ground...
Those same doctors and nurses describing the hospitals scenes as "apocalyptic" (their word not mine)
the 17K new infection in the US on March 26th are not on the ground...
The 220+ people who died in the USA on March 26th are not on the ground...
The refrigerator trailers that they have backed up to hospitals for all the corpses, is not on the ground...
The 1000s currently fighting for their lives right now are not on the ground...
The evidence of what happens everywhere when this virus is allowed to spread uncontrolled is not on the ground...
The 100s of epidemiological experts that say we are still on the exponential upswing and are nowhere near the peak are not on the ground...
Let me say this, I for one, have a very different view about what is happening on the ground. I have a friend who is a doctor in his 40s, he has 3 sons the oldest is 11, he is infected and very sick on oxygen right now. I am personally acquainted with 2 others who have it 1 seems mild the other was hospitalized yesterday.
To say that there is no evidence on the ground to support the models, and to say that we are in better shape than "people" thought, is at best highly irresponsible. People will hear that and start breaking shelter at home orders. We already see stupid Americans partying on beaches, crowding into Home Depo, forming ad hoc groups of 15+ on the street without any distance. Hearing what she said will only exacerbate this behavior and cost lives.
Are the numbers uncertain? sure...
Can we be 100% certain about any model? No
Is this doomsday, the end of mankind? No
But we have plenty of evidence on the ground that this is a very dangerous disease, it spreads incredibly fast, it causes enough severe disease to overwhelm hospitals, it has long term health effects for survivors due to scarring the lungs (something that isn't talked about nearly enough). The evidence is strong enough to know that this bad, very bad. We won't have near perfect telemetry and be able to provide highly accurate models on this disease for a decade to come... Does that mean there isn't be enough evidence on the ground to know this is really really bad and just getting started, of course not.
What she said about lack of evidence just pure bullpucky.
The only thing not on the ground is her head when she said those things, it was lost somewhere in the clouds.
I saw several interviews this evening of epidemiologists and virologists take issue with her words in the same way I am.
She has said other things that while maybe not a direct contradiction to Fauci certainly didn't jive either.
She has said lots of good things, but plenty of things to take issue with as well.
Spot on post. These things are happening. They can’t downplay it and expect people to respond.
She talked about revising a model that predicted in the UK 500K dead down to 20K. She talked about how none of the models match what has been seen in every country. She talked about how they are trying to improve the data. She talked about it is hard to tell if we are only detecting the tip of the iceberg as far as infections and the spread rate is much different than what they thought, or something else is going on. She basically said that they don't have a model which fits all the data. I have no issues with any of this...
There were several comments that were made that have stirred issues:
1) “There’s no … reality on the ground where we can see that 60 to 70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks,”
This was discussed in the interviews in the interviews with the epidemiologists. Since we are already at 85K and doubling every 2.5 days this is a false statement. Lets slow the doubling rate and say it is every 3 days, then it would take 30 to 35 days to get to 60M, at a 5 day doubling rate it takes 50 - 55 days to get the 60M infections. This seems to be our fate unless there are serious suppression methods undertaken. Even if serious suppression measures are undertaken, it appears the curve will flatten, but elongate, its not clear how long it will stretch out, but 60 - 70M infections over the course of 12 weeks is still within the realm of possiblity.
2) I can't find the exact quote, but I see in headlines something like "Reality is better than predicted". It wasn't made in the long statement about models, I have seen both the clip of that and the transcript, so I don't know the full context...
This was also discussed in interviews with doctors from NYC, and basically it doesn't go down well with professionals in NYC right now.
3) "Talking about creating D.N.R. situations, do not resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion"
This also didn't go down well with NYC professionals, certain patients do not take well to being intubated. They would have to be sedated. CPR can break their ribs puncturing the heart and lungs. CPR also puts the doctors and nurses at risk of catching the disease. Given how rarely somebody who requires CPR actually survives COVID-19, it is a perfectly reasonable discussion to have. The doctors and nurses in the discussions said that they have resuscitated people, but that in all cases the person eventually died.
4) Comments about respirators being available in NY...
Again, doctors and nurses in NYC didn't agree with this.
My apologies that I reacted to what Chris684 said without fact checking it... But nowhere did Birx say this:
In comment 14850786 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
1 more comment Birx made with which I am uncomfortable. She talked about revising the Imperial College study wayyy down. Now, I have issues with the fact that study used Chinese data, as well as some of their assumptions seemed off to me. However, Birx offered no explanation or evidence behind why they are revising those numbers so far down. If anything, data from SK, Italy and Spain suggests that COVID-19 is more lethal than the Imperial College study assumed. The only explanation I can figure (which jives with comment 1 above) is that they believe there will be far fewer infections. Given the R0 of this thing and the lack of nationwide suppression efforts, I'm not sure you can make that assumption either.
Glad to see you've been up all night posting on BBI dissecting every angle of one line I paraphrased from yesterday's press conference.
We all know what her basic point was. She's calming fears about some of the more extreme predictions out there, which "so far" are proving to be inaccurate.
But please, keep clinging to your worst case scenarios.
Quote:
In comment 14850615 sems said:
Quote:
Based on the number of reported deaths. Holding up really well so far, which is frightening. Link - ( New Window )
I think the article is way off, even if you use their own logic.
They predict that by March 14 we had accumulated 1.6 million infections, which will translate into 12,800 accumulated deaths by April 7, 24 days later.
1) The model is nothing more than a description of the accumulation of deaths, doubling every 3 days from 205 on March 19. There is no need to estimate underlying infections, so it sounds sophisticated but is not.
2) They cited their sources incorrectly. They said it takes 24 days to go from infection to death, when the paper they cite estimates a mean of 17. This throws off their estimate of the number of underlying infections by a factor of 4.
3) Corrected, their own model predicts infections of 6000 individuals (not 25K) on Feb 25, and 400,000 (not 1.6 million) by March 14 when mitigation efforts began. Respectfully, that's still a lot more cases than are reported, but this number depends strongly on using mortality rate (which is unknown) to predict underlying infections. If the mortality rate were 1.6%, the predicted number of underlying infections would be halved.
4) Using their model, but using the correct intervals, the accumulated deaths under their model would be ~3200 by April 1, and would only go up to 12,800 by April 7 if mitigation efforts after 3/14 had zero effect.
Just saying...
You misread #2. Their source says 17 days from symptoms to death, they are calculating from infection to death. You then incorrectly “corrected” their model. Good job.
Yes that’s true. Thanks.
“Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” — Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790)
We have to be willing to let people get back to work, but with some common sense restrictions of course. If you're sick, stay home. At certian biz like barbers, salons, restaurants, appointment or reservation only. Perhaps even halve the usual legal capacity. But we cannot stay closed for 3 or more months. There will be nothing left to come back to. I'm more convinced of that than ever after picking up dinner from my favorite local restaurant in Norwalk, Primavera, last night. If you live in the area, please order and help keep Luka in business. Regulars are ordering, but he says he can't last much longer. I'm sure he's not alone. Thanks.
At least they can get revenue. Barbers, stylists, and small businesses that have been considered non-essential are going to have to close permanently if the situation goes on much longer.
The only food outlets that are maintaining their business are pizza chains.
Ironically, gas prices in my town are at $1.60 right now, but I'm not using any gas!
3/4 118 - 112
3/5 176 - 160
3/6 223 - 219
3/7 341 - 272
3/8 417 - 398
3/9 584 - 471
3/10 778 - 675
3/11 1,053 - 900
3/12 1,315 - 1,163
3/13 1,922 - today’s deaths??
3/26 80,735 - deaths in two weeks???
So based on this, by end of today we should see somewhere in the vicinity of 1,700 deaths announced. Let’s see where it winds up?
She talked about revising a model that predicted in the UK 500K dead down to 20K. She talked about how none of the models match what has been seen in every country. She talked about how they are trying to improve the data. She talked about it is hard to tell if we are only detecting the tip of the iceberg as far as infections and the spread rate is much different than what they thought, or something else is going on. She basically said that they don't have a model which fits all the data. I have no issues with any of this...
There were several comments that were made that have stirred issues:
1) “There’s no … reality on the ground where we can see that 60 to 70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks,”
This was discussed in the interviews in the interviews with the epidemiologists. Since we are already at 85K and doubling every 2.5 days this is a false statement. Lets slow the doubling rate and say it is every 3 days, then it would take 30 to 35 days to get to 60M, at a 5 day doubling rate it takes 50 - 55 days to get the 60M infections. This seems to be our fate unless there are serious suppression methods undertaken. Even if serious suppression measures are undertaken, it appears the curve will flatten, but elongate, its not clear how long it will stretch out, but 60 - 70M infections over the course of 12 weeks is still within the realm of possiblity.
2) I can't find the exact quote, but I see in headlines something like "Reality is better than predicted". It wasn't made in the long statement about models, I have seen both the clip of that and the transcript, so I don't know the full context...
This was also discussed in interviews with doctors from NYC, and basically it doesn't go down well with professionals in NYC right now.
3) "Talking about creating D.N.R. situations, do not resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion"
This also didn't go down well with NYC professionals, certain patients do not take well to being intubated. They would have to be sedated. CPR can break their ribs puncturing the heart and lungs. CPR also puts the doctors and nurses at risk of catching the disease. Given how rarely somebody who requires CPR actually survives COVID-19, it is a perfectly reasonable discussion to have. The doctors and nurses in the discussions said that they have resuscitated people, but that in all cases the person eventually died.
4) Comments about respirators being available in NY...
Again, doctors and nurses in NYC didn't agree with this.
My apologies that I reacted to what Chris684 said without fact checking it... But nowhere did Birx say this:
In comment 14850786 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
1 more comment Birx made with which I am uncomfortable. She talked about revising the Imperial College study wayyy down. Now, I have issues with the fact that study used Chinese data, as well as some of their assumptions seemed off to me. However, Birx offered no explanation or evidence behind why they are revising those numbers so far down. If anything, data from SK, Italy and Spain suggests that COVID-19 is more lethal than the Imperial College study assumed. The only explanation I can figure (which jives with comment 1 above) is that they believe there will be far fewer infections. Given the R0 of this thing and the lack of nationwide suppression efforts, I'm not sure you can make that assumption either. [/quote]
This interview/article has been floating around on numerous sites for a day now. I don't know the quality of this publication but I have seen it elsewhere. Basically the guy behind the Imperial Study is backing off, likely where she is getting it from (or the data behind it is)
Imperial Study changes - ( New Window )
It happens with subjects as benign as Lamar Jackson — (people getting infuriated at suggestions that he was accurate enough to be an NFL QB) — and it’s happening now. We all do it some way — hell, I know I do it! But sometimes it’s best to just step back for a day ....
(PP, my Austin trip is probably not going to happen now, bummer, and so the final college choice is likely now down to places we’ve visited —UNC, UCLA, and Berkeley. If so, I’ll always wonder ... what if? Anyway, appreciate your generosity in providing info!).
It happens with subjects as benign as Lamar Jackson — (people getting infuriated at suggestions that he was accurate enough to be an NFL QB) — and it’s happening now. We all do it some way — hell, I know I do it! But sometimes it’s best to just step back for a day ....
(PP, my Austin trip is probably not going to happen now, bummer, and so the final college choice is likely now down to places we’ve visited —UNC, UCLA, and Berkeley. If so, I’ll always wonder ... what if? Anyway, appreciate your generosity in providing info!).
some people i think are hoping for the worst so they can come on here and say see i was right! That is why they dismiss every positive news and only post negative.
One question is whether this initial massive blow is going to be the worst hit, and now a steady drain of the economy until there's barely anything left. Whether after the massive blow things stabilize with slight down tick. Or whether there's still more massive blows to come.
The decision now is: After devastating the economy (which a lot of people seem surprised at the level), do we stay the course for another month, or two, or three, and risk even more seriously destroying it, or do we let off the gas on the shutdown and breathe a little air into the patient?
In any war, there's going to be casualties. From the beginning, I have pondered whether the course of action selected is going to result in a greater casualty count.
If that's the case, then I think the danger in Birx's comments is that it gives credence the idea to relax the efforts that are being taken, or that the mitigation strategies are too severe, which are causing the reduction in the spread rate.
One question is whether this initial massive blow is going to be the worst hit, and now a steady drain of the economy until there's barely anything left. Whether after the massive blow things stabilize with slight down tick. Or whether there's still more massive blows to come.
The decision now is: After devastating the economy (which a lot of people seem surprised at the level), do we stay the course for another month, or two, or three, and risk even more seriously destroying it, or do we let off the gas on the shutdown and breathe a little air into the patient?
In any war, there's going to be casualties. From the beginning, I have pondered whether the course of action selected is going to result in a greater casualty count.
a complete shutdown for 2 or 3 months will shutdown millions and millions of small businesses..
Many small businesses are struggling even that are open, some have sent home 70% of their employees..
Shutting down for 3 months would be catastrophic
It happens with subjects as benign as Lamar Jackson — (people getting infuriated at suggestions that he was accurate enough to be an NFL QB) — and it’s happening now. We all do it some way — hell, I know I do it! But sometimes it’s best to just step back for a day ....
(PP, my Austin trip is probably not going to happen now, bummer, and so the final college choice is likely now down to places we’ve visited —UNC, UCLA, and Berkeley. If so, I’ll always wonder ... what if? Anyway, appreciate your generosity in providing info!).
Good luck with your decision Jim, all good schools, although I couldn't imagine 2 schools much different than Berkeley and UNC (well maybe Berkeley and UT, LOL). I'm sure she will be happy at any of them.
Overall she is saying we really don't know yet we need more data.
Let's all hope the initial high projections were wrong.
I have a problem with her scolding the press when they are only reporting what studies, other experts, Governors, and hospitals have claimed.
Dr. Deborah Birx on Modeling - ( New Window )
This economy, even if this virus were to cure itself overnight, is not going to just switch on. The unemployment rate YESTERDAY jumped nearly 3-percent. It will more than double in a few weeks. I'd expect roughly a quarter of Americans are not working nearly enough hours.
There is a massive demand problem, coupled with supply-chain struggles, that is coming to roost. And since we've been spending like drunked sailors for about 30 years, we have few bullets left with any effective fiscal policy.
In weather forecasting the meteorologists run many different models for a track that a storm can take.
Most of the models have different results for people in their communities. For example a snow storm can go out to sea. It can be mild and dump a few inches of snow, or it can be a direct hit and crush you (and many variations in between)
As a weather reporter you need to prepare your audience for all possibilities until the path is determinable with more certainty. Including the worst case.
With weather that makes sense. You need to prepare people for the worst and their preparation is controllable - and we see it with empty store shelves when a blizzard is predicted. If you don't and the worst case happens you lose credibility (and possibly viewers and your job).
With the case of a pandemic I believe Dr. Birx issue with the press is they ran with the doomsday scenario (in case of fatalities as well as healthcare availability) as likely - many reported it as fact (50% of the population WILL get infected with Coronavirus), not possibly or "worst case is..."and that stoked fear and panic in people.
She said even with three data points ahead of us on the timelien, Italy, China, and South Korea - none touched the worst case models or anywhere close to it so the virus would need to change behavior to even hit the worst case models.
Overall she is saying we really don't know yet we need more data.
Let's all hope the initial high projections were wrong.
I have a problem with her scolding the press when they are only reporting what studies, other experts, Governors, and hospitals have claimed.
Dr. Deborah Birx on Modeling - ( New Window )
Giant Ego, do you think the media is simply reporting the news these days in a Walter Cronkite “just the facts” manner, or primarily cherry picking the most sensational stories? I think the latter. Some of it is of course driven by their business model, and maybe more charitably, some of it is driven by an editorial decision to not say anything that will cause people to let down their guard/not follow the protocols. I just wish the media would present a more-balanced sampling of the differing opinions — for example, I wish that there would be more attention paid to the Oxford and Stanford POVs and the Imperial College revisions ... but it seems to still be full steam ahead on the doomsday angle.
She talked about revising a model that predicted in the UK 500K dead down to 20K. She talked about how none of the models match what has been seen in every country. She talked about how they are trying to improve the data. She talked about it is hard to tell if we are only detecting the tip of the iceberg as far as infections and the spread rate is much different than what they thought, or something else is going on. She basically said that they don't have a model which fits all the data. I have no issues with any of this...
There were several comments that were made that have stirred issues:
1) “There’s no … reality on the ground where we can see that 60 to 70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks,”
This was discussed in the interviews in the interviews with the epidemiologists. Since we are already at 85K and doubling every 2.5 days this is a false statement. Lets slow the doubling rate and say it is every 3 days, then it would take 30 to 35 days to get to 60M, at a 5 day doubling rate it takes 50 - 55 days to get the 60M infections. This seems to be our fate unless there are serious suppression methods undertaken. Even if serious suppression measures are undertaken, it appears the curve will flatten, but elongate, its not clear how long it will stretch out, but 60 - 70M infections over the course of 12 weeks is still within the realm of possiblity.
2) I can't find the exact quote, but I see in headlines something like "Reality is better than predicted". It wasn't made in the long statement about models, I have seen both the clip of that and the transcript, so I don't know the full context...
This was also discussed in interviews with doctors from NYC, and basically it doesn't go down well with professionals in NYC right now.
3) "Talking about creating D.N.R. situations, do not resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion"
This also didn't go down well with NYC professionals, certain patients do not take well to being intubated. They would have to be sedated. CPR can break their ribs puncturing the heart and lungs. CPR also puts the doctors and nurses at risk of catching the disease. Given how rarely somebody who requires CPR actually survives COVID-19, it is a perfectly reasonable discussion to have. The doctors and nurses in the discussions said that they have resuscitated people, but that in all cases the person eventually died.
4) Comments about respirators being available in NY...
Again, doctors and nurses in NYC didn't agree with this.
My apologies that I reacted to what Chris684 said without fact checking it... But nowhere did Birx say this:
In comment 14850786 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Basically just said that there’s no evidence on the ground so far to support the more outrageous models some people have been pushing.
1 more comment Birx made with which I am uncomfortable. She talked about revising the Imperial College study wayyy down. Now, I have issues with the fact that study used Chinese data, as well as some of their assumptions seemed off to me. However, Birx offered no explanation or evidence behind why they are revising those numbers so far down. If anything, data from SK, Italy and Spain suggests that COVID-19 is more lethal than the Imperial College study assumed. The only explanation I can figure (which jives with comment 1 above) is that they believe there will be far fewer infections. Given the R0 of this thing and the lack of nationwide suppression efforts, I'm not sure you can make that assumption either.
second, the models have changed directly because of our actions locking down. Absent locking down the models would be exactly the same. 50%+ of the population getting infected and a mortality rate that's potentially 3-4% (that's according to Bill Gates who is about as smart, rational, and visible to the front lines of this as anybody). If social distancing stopped today, the models would go back to pointing in this direction.
as Kicker said, there is no good option now, only less bad options. we can either do everything we can to try to stop this virus from spreading so quickly by social distancing and developing capacity to treat those who get it, or we can play Russian roulette with potentially millions by doing anything less (including mislead people into thinking this isn't that big of a deal because there isn't a pile of bodies on TV or in their living room yet).
You have to start healing the economy at some point, though.
Any form of continued shutdown, from partial to full, is going to continue to damage the economy further.
It becomes a very tough decision on how much damage the economy can (or should) take vs how much good any given level of shutdown will do in the fight against the virus.
Even though my sig other is firmly in the at risk group (thus I have a personal dog in this hunt), I say err on the side of the economy. Ultimately, fewer lives will be destroyed.
Overall she is saying we really don't know yet we need more data.
Let's all hope the initial high projections were wrong.
I have a problem with her scolding the press when they are only reporting what studies, other experts, Governors, and hospitals have claimed.
Dr. Deborah Birx on Modeling - ( New Window )
People are not mischaracterizing the Imperial College model which predicts something like 50% infection. That is a model of the disease parameters as we know them, proceeding unchecked and restricted only by accumulated immune response and herd immunity.
The reason for presenting a model like this is to create urgency for action, so that those things do not happen.
As countries like China take action, the parameters change and the epidemic is restricted. That is the point of taking action. It does not mean the model was wrong, it is just that parameters will need adjustment as things on the ground change.
So people like McL (who makes a lot of sense btw) is not saying that the sky is falling and doomsday is approaching. The models are predict something, and that is happening, so we need to do something. If we do the right things, the parameters change and things won't be as bad. What is so complicated here?
China has a way larger population, the disease has leveled off. This is not necessarily because scientists don't know how to study an epidemic, it is because they did something about it. Here, we have fewer people and are now worse off, so maybe we should be doing something differently?
I realize part of leadership is calming fears, but I also think the seriousness of the situation needs to be made clear.
With the case of a pandemic I believe Dr. Birx issue with the press is they ran with the doomsday scenario (in case of fatalities as well as healthcare availability) as likely -many reported it as fact (50% of the population WILL get infected with Coronavirus), not possibly or "worst case is..."and that stoked fear and panic in people.
I've seen people claim this, but have not seen it myself from a single credible source. I haven't seen it from any non-credible sources either, I just expect there's probably some garbage dump on the web for every fringe opinion possible (the real fake news).
I have seen respected sources (including Cuomo) say that a large percentage will get it eventually, but all have caveated with the key point that the final outcome depends on when, which is the entire point of flatten the curve.
I've interpreted that to be the near consensus message from media and experts since "social distancing" became the new normal, though there has been coverage of the worst case scenarios in the models (especially when the imperial study came out and the UK changed their "herd immunity" strategy overnight). I haven't seen anything position the worst case scenario as a certainty and I would be curious to see that if you have (not being a dick or issuing a challenge, genuinely interested to see that).
But you have to factor in two extremes - the people who will do what they want when they want and the people who look at this as doomsday. Much like on this thread, you have certain posters screaming from the rooftops that this is extremely dire and you have others with little concerns. One side drives panic and the other side drives carelessness.
But because both sides are prevalent in the world we live in, we can't implement practical measures. This situation could have been done without completely disrupting the economy. Without putting small business owners out of business. Without tripling the unemployment rate. Once we shut things down, we let the genie out of the bottle, and the economic impact will far outshadow the illness aspect.
But I don't know how we'll ever get a consensus on how to handle this going forward. I'm not of the opinion that you do what you can to save a life - if you ruin thousands of others, but that's what the current landscape promotes. It is tough to ask for prudence with a populace that has a lot of people who are not prudent, even if the vast majority of the people in the middle are.
My company had a similar call. For those who are able to work from home, we will be strongly encouraged to keep working from home.
“One way to resume economic activity without panic is to cover up cases while still doing the government’s best to trace and contain them,” he said. “There is a risk it will lead to another outbreak but for now that seems like a risk the government is willing to take.”
Has China really beaten coronavirus? - ( New Window )
Quote:
I have a feeling some of the folks commenting didn't really hear it. Here is a link.
Overall she is saying we really don't know yet we need more data.
Let's all hope the initial high projections were wrong.
I have a problem with her scolding the press when they are only reporting what studies, other experts, Governors, and hospitals have claimed.
Dr. Deborah Birx on Modeling - ( New Window )
People are not mischaracterizing the Imperial College model which predicts something like 50% infection. That is a model of the disease parameters as we know them, proceeding unchecked and restricted only by accumulated immune response and herd immunity.
The reason for presenting a model like this is to create urgency for action, so that those things do not happen.
As countries like China take action, the parameters change and the epidemic is restricted. That is the point of taking action. It does not mean the model was wrong, it is just that parameters will need adjustment as things on the ground change.
So people like McL (who makes a lot of sense btw) is not saying that the sky is falling and doomsday is approaching. The models are predict something, and that is happening, so we need to do something. If we do the right things, the parameters change and things won't be as bad. What is so complicated here?
China has a way larger population, the disease has leveled off. This is not necessarily because scientists don't know how to study an epidemic, it is because they did something about it. Here, we have fewer people and are now worse off, so maybe we should be doing something differently?
I realize part of leadership is calming fears, but I also think the seriousness of the situation needs to be made clear.
I think the point being made is the media takes the worst case "if we do nothing" and run with it as the fact that will happen. We do see this every day. Instead I width they would say "if we do nothing, the worst case is x", but with the efforts already in place we are all hopeful this won't happen". Maybe this is buried in paragraph 6 of the articles, but the headline is always "80% of the US will get infected" for example. Its really just wrong generated to get people to click.
Quote:
With the case of a pandemic I believe Dr. Birx issue with the press is they ran with the doomsday scenario (in case of fatalities as well as healthcare availability) as likely -many reported it as fact (50% of the population WILL get infected with Coronavirus), not possibly or "worst case is..."and that stoked fear and panic in people.
I've seen people claim this, but have not seen it myself from a single credible source. I haven't seen it from any non-credible sources either, I just expect there's probably some garbage dump on the web for every fringe opinion possible (the real fake news).
I have seen respected sources (including Cuomo) say that a large percentage will get it eventually, but all have caveated with the key point that the final outcome depends on when, which is the entire point of flatten the curve.
I've interpreted that to be the near consensus message from media and experts since "social distancing" became the new normal, though there has been coverage of the worst case scenarios in the models (especially when the imperial study came out and the UK changed their "herd immunity" strategy overnight). I haven't seen anything position the worst case scenario as a certainty and I would be curious to see that if you have (not being a dick or issuing a challenge, genuinely interested to see that).
just google it, so many sources claim 50% of the population will get it (some say 50% already has it). I don't have the time. If you feel no one credible has made those claims then whatever, you disagree.
- "In order to keep the public safe is the county expected to take down basketball goals to keep gathering on courts"
- "Should the Parks and Rec department dismantle playground equipment to avoid the use of those areas"
- "What if tests being conducted aren't submitted until a few days later". To which the Director responded that isn't protocol and they have no examples of this happening
- "Will there be jail time for those violating the shelter in place order"?
It borders on the ridiculous in what the expectations are for the public to follow
But you have to factor in two extremes - the people who will do what they want when they want and the people who look at this as doomsday. Much like on this thread, you have certain posters screaming from the rooftops that this is extremely dire and you have others with little concerns. One side drives panic and the other side drives carelessness.
But because both sides are prevalent in the world we live in, we can't implement practical measures. This situation could have been done without completely disrupting the economy. Without putting small business owners out of business. Without tripling the unemployment rate. Once we shut things down, we let the genie out of the bottle, and the economic impact will far outshadow the illness aspect.
But I don't know how we'll ever get a consensus on how to handle this going forward. I'm not of the opinion that you do what you can to save a life - if you ruin thousands of others, but that's what the current landscape promotes. It is tough to ask for prudence with a populace that has a lot of people who are not prudent, even if the vast majority of the people in the middle are.
Very well put. +1
To Oscar who reported above your company said expect this to go 5-7 more months - could be, but they don’t have any more data than we have. I think most companies that can ‘work from home’ for a while and still make money or at least break even ,... will do because as Mark Cuban said the other day, the companies that bring people back too soon and someone ends up dead .... will face a PR and branding nightmare that lasts for years.
- "In order to keep the public safe is the county expected to take down basketball goals to keep gathering on courts"
- "Should the Parks and Rec department dismantle playground equipment to avoid the use of those areas"
- "What if tests being conducted aren't submitted until a few days later". To which the Director responded that isn't protocol and they have no examples of this happening
- "Will there be jail time for those violating the shelter in place order"?
It borders on the ridiculous in what the expectations are for the public to follow
I've seen a lot of this kind of thing.
And those questions are better than "how many dead are acceptable"
The spectrum of humanity is impressive. One end put us on the moon. The other end makes you scratch your head and wonder how they manage to tie their shoes.
But you have to factor in two extremes - the people who will do what they want when they want and the people who look at this as doomsday. Much like on this thread, you have certain posters screaming from the rooftops that this is extremely dire and you have others with little concerns. One side drives panic and the other side drives carelessness.
But because both sides are prevalent in the world we live in, we can't implement practical measures. This situation could have been done without completely disrupting the economy. Without putting small business owners out of business. Without tripling the unemployment rate. Once we shut things down, we let the genie out of the bottle, and the economic impact will far outshadow the illness aspect.
But I don't know how we'll ever get a consensus on how to handle this going forward. I'm not of the opinion that you do what you can to save a life - if you ruin thousands of others, but that's what the current landscape promotes. It is tough to ask for prudence with a populace that has a lot of people who are not prudent, even if the vast majority of the people in the middle are.
How do asymptomatic infections know when to isolate themselves?
I wouldn't suggest this was an overreaction until we see some data and definitive answers to our questions on reinfection and lasting immunity.
He's still doing the early morning multiple post routine.
At least he's not quoting "his model" like he was earlier in the thread.
It isn't just this topic he's done this on, but it is good to see others finally notice the charade.
Again, really not trying to be a dick, jmo coverage of this is a rorschach test of sorts for all of us. Sort of like the posts by McL above and Rocco a month ago, some criticized them as doomsday, others (myself included) see them mostly sticking to what experts are saying - which is just at it's core an alarming subject in general. It is hard to not convey some sense of panic discussing a pandemic.
USA TODAY
Coronavirus cases could soar in these US counties with high populations of senior citizens
Fox News
MSNBC deletes ‘erroneous’ tweet saying coronavirus could kill 50 percent of Americans
CNBC
De Blasio says New York has now hit 365 deaths from coronavirus
Business Insider
Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical'
The Guardian
US coronavirus stimulus checks: are you eligible and how much will you get?
CNBC
Coronavirus reaches all 50 states, stock futures fall, Pentagon sending respirators and ventilators
U.S. News & World Report
U.S. Records Most Coronavirus Cases Worldwide, Surpassing China, Italy
CNN International
Here's why the coronavirus may be killing more men than women. The US should take note
Reuters.com
U.S. has most coronavirus cases in world, next wave aimed at Louisiana
Quote:
first began, I thought it would be a fairly reasonable take to control the spread by isolating those at risk and having the rest of the population take care in interactions. That was the time to begin having people working from home where they could and practicing social distancing.
But you have to factor in two extremes - the people who will do what they want when they want and the people who look at this as doomsday. Much like on this thread, you have certain posters screaming from the rooftops that this is extremely dire and you have others with little concerns. One side drives panic and the other side drives carelessness.
But because both sides are prevalent in the world we live in, we can't implement practical measures. This situation could have been done without completely disrupting the economy. Without putting small business owners out of business. Without tripling the unemployment rate. Once we shut things down, we let the genie out of the bottle, and the economic impact will far outshadow the illness aspect.
But I don't know how we'll ever get a consensus on how to handle this going forward. I'm not of the opinion that you do what you can to save a life - if you ruin thousands of others, but that's what the current landscape promotes. It is tough to ask for prudence with a populace that has a lot of people who are not prudent, even if the vast majority of the people in the middle are.
How do asymptomatic infections know when to isolate themselves?
I wouldn't suggest this was an overreaction until we see some data and definitive answers to our questions on reinfection and lasting immunity.
I'm not talking about the asymptomatic, necessarily. When the crisis presented itself in China, we should have proactively begun sheltering the elderly and at risk in place and minimize our interactions with others with prudence. Limit your exposure to large crowds indoors. Things like that. It doesn't prevent the spread, but it helps minimize it. And it protects the ones most at risk.
But what it doesn't do is cripple the economic landscape.
Coronavirus will infect half the global population, EIU predicts
NY Mag:
Oxford Model: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population
NY Times:
Could Coronavirus cause as many deaths as Cancer in the US
(for reference, in the US, cancer causes over half a millions deaths each year in the US)
Business Insider
Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical'
and this is just a handful of results from the web filtering out the less credible sources, and this is not considering how many times these same sentiments get passed around the globe on twitter or other social media.
Unemployment would still rise rapidly and there would still be tremendous small business issues. Even worse, maybe less of an impetus for fiscal stimulus to help people over the course of the next few weeks.
Asymptomatic spread can't be quarantined, younger (or older) people who don't even know they have underlying conditions can't be quarantined, and with a majority not quarantined this thing would have spread quickly to a large % of the population if you believe just about every expert, in every country, who have all sheltered in place. And it still could if they open up too early without widescale testing and contact tracing.
I think it's obvious that there's widespread agreement that if we could go back in time and do what SK is doing that would have been ideal (though harder here since our country is a lot bigger).
Coronavirus will infect half the global population, EIU predicts
NY Mag:
Oxford Model: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population
NY Times:
Could Coronavirus cause as many deaths as Cancer in the US
(for reference, in the US, cancer causes over half a millions deaths each year in the US)
Business Insider
Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical'
and this is just a handful of results from the web filtering out the less credible sources, and this is not considering how many times these same sentiments get passed around the globe on twitter or other social media.
We posted a few of the exact same articles. Again this is a rorshach test PJ. None of those headlines are incorrect and none of them convey explicitly the worst case will happen and millions will die.
In comment 14851234 pjcas18 said:
With the case of a pandemic I believe Dr. Birx issue with the press is they ran with the doomsday scenario (in case of fatalities as well as healthcare availability) as likely - many reported it as fact (50% of the population WILL get infected with Coronavirus), not possibly or "worst case is..." and that stoked fear and panic in people.
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
18h
Replying to
@neil_ferguson
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
·
18h
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
·
18h
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928 - ( New Window )
Wasn't at my trunk 5 minutes getting my stuff when I see 4 dude-brahs greeting each other with hand shakes and man-hugs.
Then on the way out, must have been a group of a dozen guys hanging out tailgating.
When I get home, my wife tells me she took the dog for a walk while I was out, and adults and kids were clustered like nothing unusual was going on. Typical in this neighborhood, groups walk 8 wide and don't give people space as it is.
LCD f's it up for everybody. Clearly not enough people taking things seriously.
One question is whether this initial massive blow is going to be the worst hit, and now a steady drain of the economy until there's barely anything left. Whether after the massive blow things stabilize with slight down tick. Or whether there's still more massive blows to come.
The decision now is: After devastating the economy (which a lot of people seem surprised at the level), do we stay the course for another month, or two, or three, and risk even more seriously destroying it, or do we let off the gas on the shutdown and breathe a little air into the patient?
In any war, there's going to be casualties. From the beginning, I have pondered whether the course of action selected is going to result in a greater casualty count.
Willing to volunteer? Elvis is looking for a buddy.
COVID-19 is not a laboratory construct and didn't originate at a market - ( New Window )
Care to highlight the posts from the "idiot conspiracy-theorist nutjobs" or is this a straw man?
I haven't see anyone on here claim this was man made in a lab.
I have heard people claim China was untruthful and covered it up, helping to hamstring the world response. But I haven't read on here any claims about it being created in a lab (but I did not read every post).
Quote:
the idiot conspiracy-theorist nutjobs among us get smacked down by scientists and researchers who actually know what they're talking about: COVID-19 is not a laboratory construct and didn't originate at a market - ( New Window )
Care to highlight the posts from the "idiot conspiracy-theorist nutjobs" or is this a straw man?
I haven't see anyone on here claim this was man made in a lab.
I have heard people claim China was untruthful and covered it up, helping to hamstring the world response. But I haven't read on here any claims about it being created in a lab (but I did not read every post).
A OANN (One America News Network) "reporter" who has White House credentials and asks questions in these Covid-19 WH press briefings was pushing a conspiracy on air that the virus was created in an North Carolina lab.
I have no idea if that is what was referenced in the article, and no idea if anyone parroted it on BBI. But that kind of shit is dangerous and only further pollutes and fogs the ability to present factual information to the citizenry.
So I have a lot of skin in this game. More so than the virus, I'm terrified that my (and my family's) lifestyle that we've worked hard to establish is going to get destroyed by a society hell bent on saving a small percent of those affected by the virus. Maybe that's an irrational fear, but I'd rather a few deaths (even if I could be one) than seeing the world around me go to hell in a hand basket.
And there's a lot more folks who are a LOT closer than me to having their lives destroyed. Some of them are being destroyed as we speak.
Saving as many virus victims as possible is great. But it comes with a cost, so we shouldn't be cavalier about it.
Again, really not trying to be a dick, jmo coverage of this is a rorschach test of sorts for all of us. Sort of like the posts by McL above and Rocco a month ago, some criticized them as doomsday, others (myself included) see them mostly sticking to what experts are saying - which is just at it's core an alarming subject in general. It is hard to not convey some sense of panic discussing a pandemic.
Quote:
USA TODAY
Coronavirus cases could soar in these US counties with high populations of senior citizens
Fox News
MSNBC deletes ‘erroneous’ tweet saying coronavirus could kill 50 percent of Americans
CNBC
De Blasio says New York has now hit 365 deaths from coronavirus
Business Insider
Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical'
The Guardian
US coronavirus stimulus checks: are you eligible and how much will you get?
CNBC
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Those posts I made a few weeks ago were centered around the following points.
1) The virus was already a Pandemic which was spreading in the community all over the world. The US was acting as though it was still not spreading in the community here.
This has proven true
2) The virus causes roughly double digit percentage rates of hospitalizations of known cases. This poses a big risk of overwhelming the health-care system which is a very bad thing.
This risk has proven true.
3) The US would need a wartime like response to meet the need for PPE and medical equipment like ventilators etc. to treat the high number of hospitalized people. This poses double risk as thousands of medical workers in China got sick making hospitals drive the spread. Companies like GM etc are looking to shift to PPE/Ventilator manufacturing. The docs and nurses are like soldiers in war, the PPE and such is their needed combat gear.
This has proven true
4) The only effective way to mitigate spread and subsequent risk to the healthcare system would be to implement Social Distancing type methods never seen in our lifetimes. This would of course have massive repercussions for the economy.
This has proven true.
5) That Coronavirus was a pandemic and one of the major historical events of all our lives and there would be lasting repercussions which no one can fully predict. I believe I said there would be the world before the virus and the world after.
I guess the jury is still out on this. But I know which way I think the needle is pointing. This may be a defining moment in US History.
Quote:
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
18h
Replying to
@neil_ferguson
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
·
18h
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
·
18h
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928 - ( New Window )
Good post. This is what I have been trying to say. Thank you.
2. A partial shelter in place would be an economic disaster.
3. Doing "business as usual" would be an economic disaster.
Consumer confidence cratered this month; that is with full measures being taken to control the spread. What do you think would have happened to those numbers had we taken a less comprehensive approach?
Do we think the supply chain would magically regenerate itself?
Do we think we would still be exporting and importing products?
Do we think that consumer spending would not be lowered in a time with tremendous economic uncertainty?
The fact is, every decision path leads us to tremendous economic slowdown. It will differ in how it will manifest itself, but there is no magic cure.
This is out of 44,000 positive tests..
Also says again rate of hospitilization is slowing
That doesn't mean all disasters are equal in scope. Loss of confidence is a whole lot different than shutting down and destroying a big part of the work place.
2. A partial shelter in place would be an economic disaster.
3. Doing "business as usual" would be an economic disaster.
Consumer confidence cratered this month; that is with full measures being taken to control the spread. What do you think would have happened to those numbers had we taken a less comprehensive approach?
Do we think the supply chain would magically regenerate itself?
Do we think we would still be exporting and importing products?
Do we think that consumer spending would not be lowered in a time with tremendous economic uncertainty?
The fact is, every decision path leads us to tremendous economic slowdown. It will differ in how it will manifest itself, but there is no magic cure.
Thank you. Many people seem to think that the US exists in a bubble and that the economic gravy train would keep on chugging if it wasn't for this shut down. If American citizens were magically immune to COVID-19 we would still be facing economic catastrophe. The whole world is struggling with this.
Personal consumption expenditures were lower than what they have been, given the growth in real disposable incomes.
New permits for new construction were trending down (at odds with prior trends) in lots of places around the country in January.
Imports and exports were both trending down, which highlights inflationary pressures, further reducing income.
Any suggestion that we could have avoided the economic disaster had we avoided down mass shelters in place are built on absolutely no economic foundation, but wishful thinking.
2. A partial shelter in place would be an economic disaster.
3. Doing "business as usual" would be an economic disaster.
Consumer confidence cratered this month; that is with full measures being taken to control the spread. What do you think would have happened to those numbers had we taken a less comprehensive approach?
Do we think the supply chain would magically regenerate itself?
Do we think we would still be exporting and importing products?
Do we think that consumer spending would not be lowered in a time with tremendous economic uncertainty?
The fact is, every decision path leads us to tremendous economic slowdown. It will differ in how it will manifest itself, but there is no magic cure.
Good stuff as usual kicker.
How does the ability to work from home impact "shutdowns"?
Seems like to the extent it's possible (and on a macro level I have no idea), it would be a nice mix of shelter in place and business as usual for those who can do it.
I ask because I work from home normally when I'm not traveling. So for me the only change is obviously not traveling and also having my kids home.
But so far, and I know this is extremely anecdotal and maybe a tiny segment of the country, but it is pretty much business as usual.
My customers are just getting on zoom meetings instead of meeting face to face in a conference room. I'm still closing business and my customers (whom I have closed business with in the past 30 days) include major global banks, massive advisory/consulting firms, telecom (largest in the world), and pharma.
is it going to end or maybe it's hitting small/med businesses worse and sooner?
I just want to know what to expect and when the "next" shoe will drop - IOW - working from home will go to layoffs and massive business impacts.
Unfortunately, Dr. Birx torpedoed her credibility with the statements she made this morning. I know she has to walk a fine line but that was ridiculous
Interesting Twitter thread here.
Marc Lipsitch - ( New Window )
If you look at the potential second order effects of not sheltering in place, you are likely to see work absenteeism shoot up. Given that you would also see the spread of viral symptoms amongst children, you would also likely see work absenteeisms increase for taking care of kids.
Given the potential duration of symptoms, 2+ weeks, that could have a massive impact on small business viability. At this point, a shelter in place has potentially created expectations that we are facing similar harms, which have led to steps that I don't think we would have taken (until too late) with no quarantine; the debt holidays (hopefully more widespread).
Quote:
the infectuous disease modeller/epidemiologist who presented to the Imperial College (and whose data the warnings were based off of)
Quote:
neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
18h
Replying to
@neil_ferguson
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
·
18h
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
·
18h
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928 - ( New Window )
Good post. This is what I have been trying to say. Thank you.
Yep, thanks for that post Paul.
We need decisive action and a plan. IMO, there should be a national shut-down (not quite Wuhan level, but somewhere near Italy level) until June 1. That downtime should be used to develop massive massive quick and reliable testing. A division of the military/homeland security should be developed to handle outbreaks (the US should look at South Korea, Germany, Singapore, and Norway for best practices here). A combination of rapid testing and quick responses to positive tests can keep this under control (it's worked elsewhere!).
Yes, it's going to suck to be shut down until June, but face reality folks, we're already looking at things being fucked up until then. Suck it up, take our medicine now, and maybe we have a shot at having somewhat normal lives again come summertime.
Quote:
1. A full shelter in place is an economic disaster.
2. A partial shelter in place would be an economic disaster.
3. Doing "business as usual" would be an economic disaster.
Consumer confidence cratered this month; that is with full measures being taken to control the spread. What do you think would have happened to those numbers had we taken a less comprehensive approach?
Do we think the supply chain would magically regenerate itself?
Do we think we would still be exporting and importing products?
Do we think that consumer spending would not be lowered in a time with tremendous economic uncertainty?
The fact is, every decision path leads us to tremendous economic slowdown. It will differ in how it will manifest itself, but there is no magic cure.
Good stuff as usual kicker.
How does the ability to work from home impact "shutdowns"?
Seems like to the extent it's possible (and on a macro level I have no idea), it would be a nice mix of shelter in place and business as usual for those who can do it.
I ask because I work from home normally when I'm not traveling. So for me the only change is obviously not traveling and also having my kids home.
But so far, and I know this is extremely anecdotal and maybe a tiny segment of the country, but it is pretty much business as usual.
My customers are just getting on zoom meetings instead of meeting face to face in a conference room. I'm still closing business and my customers (whom I have closed business with in the past 30 days) include major global banks, massive advisory/consulting firms, telecom (largest in the world), and pharma.
is it going to end or maybe it's hitting small/med businesses worse and sooner?
I just want to know what to expect and when the "next" shoe will drop - IOW - working from home will go to layoffs and massive business impacts.
For now, for larger firms, it's business as usual. Some small and medium businesses will be able to survive this.
The biggest long-term impact will be what happens when the stimulus or unemployment money starts to run out. The average weeks unemployed is still higher than the long-term average, which is where a lot of labor market drag is coming from.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UEMPMEAN
We need decisive action and a plan. IMO, there should be a national shut-down (not quite Wuhan level, but somewhere near Italy level) until June 1. That downtime should be used to develop massive massive quick and reliable testing. A division of the military/homeland security should be developed to handle outbreaks (the US should look at South Korea, Germany, Singapore, and Norway for best practices here). A combination of rapid testing and quick responses to positive tests can keep this under control (it's worked elsewhere!).
Yes, it's going to suck to be shut down until June, but face reality folks, we're already looking at things being fucked up until then. Suck it up, take our medicine now, and maybe we have a shot at having somewhat normal lives again come summertime.
My first parenthetical should be "(not to mention, many many deaths)".
I haven't seen much talk about that, but it's going to be costly, and consumers are going to dramatically have to alter what they expect to be able to purchase.
4400 new cases Wednesday as the peak, 3100 yesterday,, 2400 today.
Ballpark of two weeks to develop the signs after infection, we should be getting numbers that are just starting to show the impact of the steps taken 10 days ago.
Nyc cases by day - ( New Window )
This is the drag; 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (no, not all poor).
If you have an impact of 5% of the labor force being out at any one time due to sickness (or personal choice), you are looking at several hundreds of billions of dollars ($750 billion) of lost GDP.
The total economic loss from the 2007 to 2009 recession was about two-thirds of this.
This also does not consider the impact of rising price levels on lots of consumer staples, and the absolute shattering of trade and business investment.
The next 2 months will be expensive to buy back what we all probably now wish we started doing January 1. But it is what it is, no point in looking back.
Would we have had the political capital to enact the fiscal stimulus without massive sheltering in place? Would the Fed have announced unlimited QE (and basically the destruction of their remaining reputation) without some notion that shelter in place was going to be widespread?
If we're honest, no, I don't think those are feasible.
This may very well end up not being the right move; it could be the best move. The only thing is that we have to be very careful about unwinding from this without carefully considering the downsides to alternative policies that could double down the instabilities that we are seeing.
This is the drag; 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (no, not all poor).
If you have an impact of 5% of the labor force being out at any one time due to sickness (or personal choice), you are looking at several hundreds of billions of dollars ($750 billion) of lost GDP.
The total economic loss from the 2007 to 2009 recession was about two-thirds of this.
This also does not consider the impact of rising price levels on lots of consumer staples, and the absolute shattering of trade and business investment.
So if you were going to estimate the amount of stimulus we'd need to get through 2 more months of this, what would you ballpark? Does the $2T even get halfway there?
Unfortunately, Dr. Birx torpedoed her credibility with the statements she made this morning. I know she has to walk a fine line but that was ridiculous
Interesting Twitter thread here. Marc Lipsitch - ( New Window )
Lipsitch knows what he is talking about and it is not alarmist, nor does what he is saying or have said need to be revised. Birx did make some errors there.
I've never said there's a magic cure, that all would be rosy if we just end the shutdown. If anyone else said it, I missed it.
I'm saying various courses of action would lead to various levels of disaster. If we're damned to the same degree no matter what, let's just stay in shelter mode til next year when a vaccine is hopefully ready. But that's not realistic.
The world isn't going back to sunshine and roses the moment the shelter is lifted. We can't stay in quarantine forever. We WILL be going back into the world when there is still a virus risk. We have to assess the point at which we stop doing further damage to the economy base and decide the level of risk of virus we're willing to accept when we leave the shelter and start rebuilding.
Saying disaster no matter what is not an answer...unless you believe all roads lead to the same level of disaster. Is that what you believe?
I haven't seen much talk about that, but it's going to be costly, and consumers are going to dramatically have to alter what they expect to be able to purchase.
I read someone else say this too, especially as you say medical, healthcare, and other goods.
Some suggest the margin should go down, not prices go up, but I think we know that won't happen.
They suggested with an iPhone as an example, not something like antibiotics, but with an iPhone 11 Pro for example at a $1000 MSRP, and components costing $400 (plus G&A and other costs) to give you your margin (not sure, maybe 40%), and that margin should take a hit if that production was brought to the US. But to your point my guess is as an example a US made iPhone would probably be $1200 to preserve the current margin instead of keeping it at $1000 and lessening the margin to 30% (or whatever it would be).
I think we have lessened our dependency on the middle east for oil, no reason we cannot lessen or remove our dependency on china for goods deemed critical (not iPhones per say - that was just an example I read).
4400 new cases Wednesday as the peak, 3100 yesterday,, 2400 today.
Ballpark of two weeks to develop the signs after infection, we should be getting numbers that are just starting to show the impact of the steps taken 10 days ago. Nyc cases by day - ( New Window )
- "In order to keep the public safe is the county expected to take down basketball goals to keep gathering on courts"
- "Should the Parks and Rec department dismantle playground equipment to avoid the use of those areas"
- "What if tests being conducted aren't submitted until a few days later". To which the Director responded that isn't protocol and they have no examples of this happening
- "Will there be jail time for those violating the shelter in place order"?
It borders on the ridiculous in what the expectations are for the public to follow
FMIC, in my town they removed the rims from the courts. The fact is that you couldn't stop people from playing so the town took the rims. My take is not that the gov't has run amok. My take is that sometimes you have to force people to listen to reason even if it is for their own good.
Would we have had the political capital to enact the fiscal stimulus without massive sheltering in place? Would the Fed have announced unlimited QE (and basically the destruction of their remaining reputation) without some notion that shelter in place was going to be widespread?
If we're honest, no, I don't think those are feasible.
This may very well end up not being the right move; it could be the best move. The only thing is that we have to be very careful about unwinding from this without carefully considering the downsides to alternative policies that could double down the instabilities that we are seeing.
So I have a lot of skin in this game. More so than the virus, I'm terrified that my (and my family's) lifestyle that we've worked hard to establish is going to get destroyed by a society hell bent on saving a small percent of those affected by the virus. Maybe that's an irrational fear, but I'd rather a few deaths (even if I could be one) than seeing the world around me go to hell in a hand basket.
And there's a lot more folks who are a LOT closer than me to having their lives destroyed. Some of them are being destroyed as we speak.
Saving as many virus victims as possible is great. But it comes with a cost, so we shouldn't be cavalier about it.
Fair enough, and thanks for the honest response. I'm significantly deeper into the age/risk quotient, but I'm not going to obsess over it. I figure I've survived a lot of situations where I should reasonably have died. If I should turn out to be one of the unfortunates, I guess it'll just be my turn in the barrel. 😢
Quote:
And I'll say it again. In the past year, we've seen consumer expenditures increase by $2 trillion, while debt held by consumers increased by $1.4 trillion. So, 70% of all consumer expenditures were financed by debt.
This is the drag; 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (no, not all poor).
If you have an impact of 5% of the labor force being out at any one time due to sickness (or personal choice), you are looking at several hundreds of billions of dollars ($750 billion) of lost GDP.
The total economic loss from the 2007 to 2009 recession was about two-thirds of this.
This also does not consider the impact of rising price levels on lots of consumer staples, and the absolute shattering of trade and business investment.
So if you were going to estimate the amount of stimulus we'd need to get through 2 more months of this, what would you ballpark? Does the $2T even get halfway there?
MIT has a living wage calculator. Basically, how much you need to make to live in basic living standards.
So, essentially, the average American family of 4 (2 working adults, 2 children) needs about $1,300 per week. If you're unemployed, you will make ABOUT the minimum. If you're working part-time, you're likely to hit some troubles immediately. Depending on state-by-state rules, unemployment may not be an option, and the stimulus checks are likely to be too late.
It's going to be tight.
Quote:
having a news conference right now and here are some of the questions being asked by the "reporters"
- "In order to keep the public safe is the county expected to take down basketball goals to keep gathering on courts"
- "Should the Parks and Rec department dismantle playground equipment to avoid the use of those areas"
- "What if tests being conducted aren't submitted until a few days later". To which the Director responded that isn't protocol and they have no examples of this happening
- "Will there be jail time for those violating the shelter in place order"?
It borders on the ridiculous in what the expectations are for the public to follow
FMIC, in my town they removed the rims from the courts. The fact is that you couldn't stop people from playing so the town took the rims. My take is not that the gov't has run amok. My take is that sometimes you have to force people to listen to reason even if it is for their own good.
they did in my town as well
Quote:
to reshore medical production, and production of other vital goods and services.
I haven't seen much talk about that, but it's going to be costly, and consumers are going to dramatically have to alter what they expect to be able to purchase.
I read someone else say this too, especially as you say medical, healthcare, and other goods.
Some suggest the margin should go down, not prices go up, but I think we know that won't happen.
They suggested with an iPhone as an example, not something like antibiotics, but with an iPhone 11 Pro for example at a $1000 MSRP, and components costing $400 (plus G&A and other costs) to give you your margin (not sure, maybe 40%), and that margin should take a hit if that production was brought to the US. But to your point my guess is as an example a US made iPhone would probably be $1200 to preserve the current margin instead of keeping it at $1000 and lessening the margin to 30% (or whatever it would be).
I think we have lessened our dependency on the middle east for oil, no reason we cannot lessen or remove our dependency on china for goods deemed critical (not iPhones per say - that was just an example I read).
I could actually see margins fall, but it's going to lead us to the same outcome; a massive decrease in luxury consumerism. Fewer of these goods (newest and greatest phone with minimal improvements) available to the public.
Especially because lower margins would squeeze any wannabe competitors.
I think the supply chain may fragment anyways because of this, but I don't trust politicians.
I've never said there's a magic cure, that all would be rosy if we just end the shutdown. If anyone else said it, I missed it.
I'm saying various courses of action would lead to various levels of disaster. If we're damned to the same degree no matter what, let's just stay in shelter mode til next year when a vaccine is hopefully ready. But that's not realistic.
The world isn't going back to sunshine and roses the moment the shelter is lifted. We can't stay in quarantine forever. We WILL be going back into the world when there is still a virus risk. We have to assess the point at which we stop doing further damage to the economy base and decide the level of risk of virus we're willing to accept when we leave the shelter and start rebuilding.
Saying disaster no matter what is not an answer...unless you believe all roads lead to the same level of disaster. Is that what you believe?
The false assertion is stating that by lifting a shelter in place, we stop further damage to the economic base.
Maybe things will still slide when the shutdown ends, but we are not going to get to a point of turn around with mandated cloistering in place. Until then, the downward slide will be steeper and longer.
Again, are you saying the deterioration of the economy and base is the same no matter what? not will it deteriorate, but that it deteriorates to the same extent?
Sterling
Maybe things will still slide when the shutdown ends, but we are not going to get to a point of turn around with mandated cloistering in place. Until then, the downward slide will be steeper and longer.
Again, are you saying the deterioration of the economy and base is the same no matter what? not will it deteriorate, but that it deteriorates to the same extent?
You simply are out of your league on this. No, I'm not going to answer a stupid counterfactual; who knows the level of the destruction. It could be the same, higher, or lower. I do know that opening up our economy isn't this magical bullet that stops the economic slide.
We are not a closed economy; we are a consumer-drive open economy. How do you propose we unilaterally restart the international flow of capital, labor, and goods that has driven our economic growth for 30 years (Hint: you can't).
How do you restore the supply chain that has been eviscerated (Hint: you can't).
How do you ensure that credit will be available to lower income consumers, who largely fund their purchases (and our current GPD) through debt instruments (Hint: you can't).
There are unprecedented moves by the Fed and the federal government. Look at what they are telling people. Doubling unemployment benefits for an absurd amount of time (HINT: the economy isn't coming back for a long time).
Providing small business loans where the principal can be forgiven (HINT: they expect an inability of small businesses to be able to pay back the loan over the course of the next few years).
Unlimited QE (HINT: no lending and liquidity in the system, which means that our debt-financed consumer spending isn't coming back).
NEGATIVE (at least earlier) T-bill rates (HINT: the annihilation of our financial system to build any sort of wealth in the near term).
DEBT FREEZES: freezes on paying back mortgages, student loans, and other things. The length depends (HINT: consumers are going to struggle to afford things, and so this provides a little bit of liquidity for them to purchase necessities).
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you'll have to explain to me how mandating people stay out of work, businesses staying closed, or enduring reduced productivity, is not causing more damage than ending that mandate.
Maybe things will still slide when the shutdown ends, but we are not going to get to a point of turn around with mandated cloistering in place. Until then, the downward slide will be steeper and longer.
Again, are you saying the deterioration of the economy and base is the same no matter what? not will it deteriorate, but that it deteriorates to the same extent?
You simply are out of your league on this. No, I'm not going to answer a stupid counterfactual; who knows the level of the destruction. It could be the same, higher, or lower. I do know that opening up our economy isn't this magical bullet that stops the economic slide.
We are not a closed economy; we are a consumer-drive open economy. How do you propose we unilaterally restart the international flow of capital, labor, and goods that has driven our economic growth for 30 years (Hint: you can't).
How do you restore the supply chain that has been eviscerated (Hint: you can't).
How do you ensure that credit will be available to lower income consumers, who largely fund their purchases (and our current GPD) through debt instruments (Hint: you can't).
There are unprecedented moves by the Fed and the federal government. Look at what they are telling people. Doubling unemployment benefits for an absurd amount of time (HINT: the economy isn't coming back for a long time).
Providing small business loans where the principal can be forgiven (HINT: they expect an inability of small businesses to be able to pay back the loan over the course of the next few years).
Unlimited QE (HINT: no lending and liquidity in the system, which means that our debt-financed consumer spending isn't coming back).
NEGATIVE (at least earlier) T-bill rates (HINT: the annihilation of our financial system to build any sort of wealth in the near term).
DEBT FREEZES: freezes on paying back mortgages, student loans, and other things. The length depends (HINT: consumers are going to struggle to afford things, and so this provides a little bit of liquidity for them to purchase necessities).
So, does this mean we are all screwed? The social distance response to the virus will bring about the collapse of the US economic system and the world?
Looks like the virus is in control
It likely causes a revision of our economic priorities ("luxury consumerism"). It likely mitigates debt-driven consumer spending as the driving factor in economic growth. It likely alters our social welfare structure (what is considered important or necessary), and probably alters our healthcare system.
It's going to be painful, but an economic reset is due. We've seen 30-40 years of painful financial, social, and political mismanagement. Just like the Great Depression wasn't the end of America, neither is this. It's just...different.
Can the Federal Reserve just make magic money forever? Wont the dollar eventually become toilet paper? What happens if the US us not a reserve currency used and respected around the world?
No sense talking to anyone who won't acknowledge that.
If you want to argue some straw argument about recovery, have at it.
Stay safe, and have a nice day.
It likely causes a revision of our economic priorities ("luxury consumerism"). It likely mitigates debt-driven consumer spending as the driving factor in economic growth. It likely alters our social welfare structure (what is considered important or necessary), and probably alters our healthcare system.
It's going to be painful, but an economic reset is due. We've seen 30-40 years of painful financial, social, and political mismanagement. Just like the Great Depression wasn't the end of America, neither is this. It's just...different.
ok
No sense talking to anyone who won't acknowledge that.
If you want to argue some straw argument about recovery, have at it.
Stay safe, and have a nice day.
Yeah; fuck listening to an actual Economist...
Can the Federal Reserve just make magic money forever? Wont the dollar eventually become toilet paper? What happens if the US us not a reserve currency used and respected around the world?
Can we make magic money forever? Yes* (*not without serious consequences).
Will the dollar become toilet paper? No while we are still in better shape than other places, which we still seem to be. If we keep enacting poor monetary policies, we are going to quicken the likelihood our currency becomes devalued).
Will the US lose its reserve currency status? At some point, yes. This may have quickened the pace at which we are going to lose it.
No sense talking to anyone who won't acknowledge that.
If you want to argue some straw argument about recovery, have at it.
Stay safe, and have a nice day.
It's only smart if you're capable of linear thinking. Of course, that's not how the economy works, which is why we have experts for it...
Try not hurting your arm patting yourself on the back.
Try not hurting your arm patting yourself on the back.
Better a douche than ill-informed with a strong opinion?
Again, stick to topics you might have a clue about. Not sure what they may be, but I'm sure in your lengthy time on this planet, you've probably found 1 or 2.
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In comment 14851376 Mr. Bungle said:
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the idiot conspiracy-theorist nutjobs among us get smacked down by scientists and researchers who actually know what they're talking about: COVID-19 is not a laboratory construct and didn't originate at a market - ( New Window )
Care to highlight the posts from the "idiot conspiracy-theorist nutjobs" or is this a straw man?
I haven't see anyone on here claim this was man made in a lab.
I have heard people claim China was untruthful and covered it up, helping to hamstring the world response. But I haven't read on here any claims about it being created in a lab (but I did not read every post).
A OANN (One America News Network) "reporter" who has White House credentials and asks questions in these Covid-19 WH press briefings was pushing a conspiracy on air that the virus was created in an North Carolina lab.
I have no idea if that is what was referenced in the article, and no idea if anyone parroted it on BBI. But that kind of shit is dangerous and only further pollutes and fogs the ability to present factual information to the citizenry.
FYI one america news network is a far-right news and opinion channel owned by Herring Networks, Inc., launched on July 4, 2013. The network is headquartered in San Diego, California, and operates news bureaus in Washington, D.C. and New York City.Kristian Brunovich Rouz, originally from the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, has been living in San Diego, where OAN is based, since August 2017, reporting on U.S. politics for the 24-hour news channel. For all of that time, he’s been simultaneously writing for Sputnik, a Kremlin-owned news wire that played a role in Russia’s 2016 election-interference operation, according to an assessment by the U.S. intelligence community. enough said
fwiw.
That said, Birx comments has drawn quite a bit of criticism, and we are still seeing it today. As GiantEgo posted. So it isn't just me. Frankly after seeing her real comments, she used a lot of words designed to calm fears, but she said a whole lotta nothing about the models, and underplayed the reality on the ground in NYC which aggravated alot of those
folks, who are the real heros.
DonQuixote is correct about the most dire models, including mine, that they were worst case scenarios when the disease is allowed to spread uncontrolled. Those scenarios lead to human catastrophe and as kicker said economic catastrophe. These models were designed to spur people to act.
Early on I was calling for broad testing and quarantine similar to SK. We see that they have been far more successful in containing this disease. Even with those measures they had to shut down, probably just for a short while to get ahead of it again. That model was the only way to avoid economic disaster. That ship has sailed, economic disaster is upon us, it's just a question of how bad it will be.
The SK model is still the best model for managing the disease that we have. So how do we get there after having allowed it to spread uncontrolled for 2 months?
Italy has been on their version of lockdown for close to 3 weeks, but they didn't go full China. The disease has slowed, and there were some hopeful signs, but it hasn't stopped like in China. Perhaps it needs a bit more time, but right now it looks like the controls have been enough to make the spread linear but at what is still an unsustainable level for their hospital system. NYC still needs more time, but so far it is following a worse path than Italy.
What is needed are suppression methods that turn the R0 down far enough that new daily infections drop to a manageable number. You want to be as strict as possible to get it under control as fast as possible. Once you get there (under control), you have to roll out aggressive surveillance testing of the population, quickly finding and quarantining people infected. You need enough testing capability that you can mandate that everybody is required to take a test periodically, possibly as often as every 2 weeks. You won't eradicate it from the population, but you keep it under control until there is a vaccine. This method will allow the fastest and fullest re-opening of the economy.
Stratifying risk groups and isolating them will never work. There is no reasonable way to isolate sub populations. Plus you will still have the disease rip through the supposed not at risk group and wreaking havoc. In addition to killing lots of elderly and people with underlying issues such as asthma and allergies, COVID-19 is showing that, even in mild cases, it can have devastating life long health consequences from the scarring of the lungs. This is just not an option.
The bottom line is that the worst case models of this disease (allowing uncontrolled spread) is both a human and an economic catastrophe. The purpose of those models is to illustrate that. The models are not intended to predict what will happen. That depends on the actions we take to avoid the worst. And all this happy talk about returning to business as usual returns us to those models. That is what is so frustrating, we know know what happens when this virus is allowed to spread uncontrolled, yet people are still suggesting that we go down that path.
Based on the data so far (and this might change), it seems that half assed suppression methods are not enough. We do know that draconian measures have worked and can work much faster than the half assed measures. The sooner that bullet is bitten, the sooner we can get to the SK model, and the better off we all will be both health wise and economically. From the information we have right now, dithering around with anything less, is just making the problem worse. Any suggestion that tough measures aren't necessary, is just making the problem worse. Are the models 100% accurate? No not yet, but they do illustrate the best path forward. Birx as an expert knows this, and the reality is she should be telling the American public the full truth, making it clear what measures are needed and what the future looks like after we get to a good state. Birx also knows that Fauci is correct that this will get worse, much worse, before it gets better. Americans can handle this truth. Nail me to a cross if you must, but so far, what I have said about this disease has mostly been proven to be correct. And yes, I am getting frustrated with more half assed ideas. They just make the problem worse and the solution take longer.
Horrible
Is anyone still booking cruises? You would need to have your head examined.
That said, Birx comments has drawn quite a bit of criticism, and we are still seeing it today. As GiantEgo posted. So it isn't just me. Frankly after seeing her real comments, she used a lot of words designed to calm fears, but she said a whole lotta nothing about the models, and underplayed the reality on the ground in NYC which aggravated alot of those
folks, who are the real heros.
DonQuixote is correct about the most dire models, including mine, that they were worst case scenarios when the disease is allowed to spread uncontrolled. Those scenarios lead to human catastrophe and as kicker said economic catastrophe. These models were designed to spur people to act.
Early on I was calling for broad testing and quarantine similar to SK. We see that they have been far more successful in containing this disease. Even with those measures they had to shut down, probably just for a short while to get ahead of it again. That model was the only way to avoid economic disaster. That ship has sailed, economic disaster is upon us, it's just a question of how bad it will be.
The SK model is still the best model for managing the disease that we have. So how do we get there after having allowed it to spread uncontrolled for 2 months?
Italy has been on their version of lockdown for close to 3 weeks, but they didn't go full China. The disease has slowed, and there were some hopeful signs, but it hasn't stopped like in China. Perhaps it needs a bit more time, but right now it looks like the controls have been enough to make the spread linear but at what is still an unsustainable level for their hospital system. NYC still needs more time, but so far it is following a worse path than Italy.
What is needed are suppression methods that turn the R0 down far enough that new daily infections drop to a manageable number. You want to be as strict as possible to get it under control as fast as possible. Once you get there (under control), you have to roll out aggressive surveillance testing of the population, quickly finding and quarantining people infected. You need enough testing capability that you can mandate that everybody is required to take a test periodically, possibly as often as every 2 weeks. You won't eradicate it from the population, but you keep it under control until there is a vaccine. This method will allow the fastest and fullest re-opening of the economy.
Stratifying risk groups and isolating them will never work. There is no reasonable way to isolate sub populations. Plus you will still have the disease rip through the supposed not at risk group and wreaking havoc. In addition to killing lots of elderly and people with underlying issues such as asthma and allergies, COVID-19 is showing that, even in mild cases, it can have devastating life long health consequences from the scarring of the lungs. This is just not an option.
The bottom line is that the worst case models of this disease (allowing uncontrolled spread) is both a human and an economic catastrophe. The purpose of those models is to illustrate that. The models are not intended to predict what will happen. That depends on the actions we take to avoid the worst. And all this happy talk about returning to business as usual returns us to those models. That is what is so frustrating, we know know what happens when this virus is allowed to spread uncontrolled, yet people are still suggesting that we go down that path.
Based on the data so far (and this might change), it seems that half assed suppression methods are not enough. We do know that draconian measures have worked and can work much faster than the half assed measures. The sooner that bullet is bitten, the sooner we can get to the SK model, and the better off we all will be both health wise and economically. From the information we have right now, dithering around with anything less, is just making the problem worse. Any suggestion that tough measures aren't necessary, is just making the problem worse. Are the models 100% accurate? No not yet, but they do illustrate the best path forward. Birx as an expert knows this, and the reality is she should be telling the American public the full truth, making it clear what measures are needed and what the future looks like after we get to a good state. Birx also knows that Fauci is correct that this will get worse, much worse, before it gets better. Americans can handle this truth. Nail me to a cross if you must, but so far, what I have said about this disease has mostly been proven to be correct. And yes, I am getting frustrated with more half assed ideas. They just make the problem worse and the solution take longer.
+1
People everywhere, seems totally normal except some in masks. Not most. I mean I am outside too, although I don't know what I would do with my dog he is too big to shit on a wee wee pad. Dog needs exercise too.
Queens is the epicenter of the epicenter too. Contrast this to pics of the Wuhan lockodwn. Where is was a fucking ghost town, or maybe one guy in a mask crossing the street. I think Wuhan has five six more million people than the Big Apple too
I hope this Lockdown, American Style, actually works. I live in NYC, hope we aren't fucked.
Lonk - ( New Window )
People everywhere, seems totally normal except some in masks. Not most. I mean I am outside too, although I don't know what I would do with my dog he is too big to shit on a wee wee pad. Dog needs exercise too.
Queens is the epicenter of the epicenter too. Contrast this to pics of the Wuhan lockodwn. Where is was a fucking ghost town, or maybe one guy in a mask crossing the street. I think Wuhan has five six more million people than the Big Apple too
I hope this Lockdown, American Style, actually works. I live in NYC, hope we aren't fucked.
This is why I am frustrated. Americans still need a wake-up call.
I live in suburbia west of NYC. I have never seen so many people walking on the street... It looks like downtown Manhattan... And none of them adhering to social distancing.
It's all half-assed, and it won't work to get us to SK.
Best as I can figure, the feds have decided to let it happen, let it spread fast and far and get it over with. Get to herd immunity, consequences be damned.
WTF do I know, at this point, it has been allowed to spread so much that there may be no reasonable alternative.
How does this work?
Yesterday Dr Birx pretty much laughed off the need for more ventilators.
Which is it?
Quote:
Holland America cruise ship docked in Florida with 4 dead,138 sick. It left March 6th.
Horrible
Is anyone still booking cruises? You would need to have your head examined.
I have a river cruise booked for July 4th, I've had it booked for a year. I've gone on cruises for 30 years, we just love them
Yesterday Dr Birx pretty much laughed off the need for more ventilators.
Which is it?
perhaps a precaution? and yesterday she said as of right now every hospital has enough in stock..
Cuomo today said the hospital rate is going down and only 1500 are in icu, meaning using ventilators..
Perhaps having more made for the future is a good thing?
3/4 118 - 112
3/5 176 - 160
3/6 223 - 219
3/7 341 - 272
3/8 417 - 398
3/9 584 - 471
3/10 778 - 675
3/11 1,053 - 900
3/12 1,315 - 1,163
3/13 1,922 - today’s deaths??
3/26 80,735 - deaths in two weeks???
So based on this, by end of today we should see somewhere in the vicinity of 1,700 deaths announced. Let’s see where it winds up?
Wow!we are currently at 1,543 deaths.
People everywhere, seems totally normal except some in masks. Not most. I mean I am outside too, although I don't know what I would do with my dog he is too big to shit on a wee wee pad. Dog needs exercise too.
Queens is the epicenter of the epicenter too. Contrast this to pics of the Wuhan lockodwn. Where is was a fucking ghost town, or maybe one guy in a mask crossing the street. I think Wuhan has five six more million people than the Big Apple too
I hope this Lockdown, American Style, actually works. I live in NYC, hope we aren't fucked.
Quote:
Gotta walk him, big dog. Beautiful late afternoon, people all over the place. Kids on swings, group of adolescents smoking weed on park bench in playground. Traffic in the streets. Ice cream trucks abound.
People everywhere, seems totally normal except some in masks. Not most. I mean I am outside too, although I don't know what I would do with my dog he is too big to shit on a wee wee pad. Dog needs exercise too.
Queens is the epicenter of the epicenter too. Contrast this to pics of the Wuhan lockodwn. Where is was a fucking ghost town, or maybe one guy in a mask crossing the street. I think Wuhan has five six more million people than the Big Apple too
I hope this Lockdown, American Style, actually works. I live in NYC, hope we aren't fucked.
That's pretty surprising. I live in Jersey City and it's been empty in the streets for the most part for weeks. Granted, there are people out, but nobody really congregating the way you describe.
Yeah my son and I had to run to Lowes to get something and not only less people than usual out in general but everyone giving each other clear distance while shopping. Amazing some people can't get behind this simple ask.
Quote:
So just now the President invokes the DPA compelling GM to produce ventilators.
Yesterday Dr Birx pretty much laughed off the need for more ventilators.
Which is it?
perhaps a precaution? and yesterday she said as of right now every hospital has enough in stock..
Cuomo today said the hospital rate is going down and only 1500 are in icu, meaning using ventilators..
Perhaps having more made for the future is a good thing?
Maybe, but the surgeon general also said that the models being used to predict the number of ventilators are “way off” so they may think NY is overstating or mistaken. Cuomos numbers looked solid to me.
Quote:
In comment 14851682 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
So just now the President invokes the DPA compelling GM to produce ventilators.
Yesterday Dr Birx pretty much laughed off the need for more ventilators.
Which is it?
perhaps a precaution? and yesterday she said as of right now every hospital has enough in stock..
Cuomo today said the hospital rate is going down and only 1500 are in icu, meaning using ventilators..
Perhaps having more made for the future is a good thing?
Maybe, but the surgeon general also said that the models being used to predict the number of ventilators are “way off” so they may think NY is overstating or mistaken. Cuomos numbers looked solid to me.
what i dont get though, cuomo says they need 30,000, but in the same breathe says hospital rate is going down and only have 1500 on ventilators right now..
In just about every press conference when reporters aren't asking "how many dead is acceptable" or "why do you call it x-virus.." they are asking "where are the ventilators?"
In that regard both can be right, a) maybe right now for current load there are enough ventilators, but the rate this is exploding in NYC alone, maybe more are going to potentially be needed, and quickly.
just my sense to rationalize the seeming discrepancy.
Quote:
In comment 14851691 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14851682 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
So just now the President invokes the DPA compelling GM to produce ventilators.
Yesterday Dr Birx pretty much laughed off the need for more ventilators.
Which is it?
perhaps a precaution? and yesterday she said as of right now every hospital has enough in stock..
Cuomo today said the hospital rate is going down and only 1500 are in icu, meaning using ventilators..
Perhaps having more made for the future is a good thing?
Maybe, but the surgeon general also said that the models being used to predict the number of ventilators are “way off” so they may think NY is overstating or mistaken. Cuomos numbers looked solid to me.
what i dont get though, cuomo says they need 30,000, but in the same breathe says hospital rate is going down and only have 1500 on ventilators right now..
Quote:
In comment 14851719 DonQuixote said:
Quote:
In comment 14851691 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14851682 GiantEgo said:
Quote:
So just now the President invokes the DPA compelling GM to produce ventilators.
Yesterday Dr Birx pretty much laughed off the need for more ventilators.
Which is it?
perhaps a precaution? and yesterday she said as of right now every hospital has enough in stock..
Cuomo today said the hospital rate is going down and only 1500 are in icu, meaning using ventilators..
Perhaps having more made for the future is a good thing?
Maybe, but the surgeon general also said that the models being used to predict the number of ventilators are “way off” so they may think NY is overstating or mistaken. Cuomos numbers looked solid to me.
what i dont get though, cuomo says they need 30,000, but in the same breathe says hospital rate is going down and only have 1500 on ventilators right now..
Maybe he's talking for the whole state needing them
that is for the whole state unless i misheard him..
he said 44,000 positive cases, 6000 has been hospitilized, 1500 icu and 2000 recovered...
So there's still a need for way more ventilators.
So there's still a need for way more ventilators.
new york just had their 5th day in a row with less positive cases
Quote:
Gotta walk him, big dog. Beautiful late afternoon, people all over the place. Kids on swings, group of adolescents smoking weed on park bench in playground. Traffic in the streets. Ice cream trucks abound.
People everywhere, seems totally normal except some in masks. Not most. I mean I am outside too, although I don't know what I would do with my dog he is too big to shit on a wee wee pad. Dog needs exercise too.
Queens is the epicenter of the epicenter too. Contrast this to pics of the Wuhan lockodwn. Where is was a fucking ghost town, or maybe one guy in a mask crossing the street. I think Wuhan has five six more million people than the Big Apple too
Best as I can figure, the feds have decided to let it happen, let it spread fast and far and get it over with. Get to herd immunity, consequences be damned.
WTF do I know, at this point, it has been allowed to spread so much that there may be no reasonable alternative.
Like I told you before, that wasn't happening here. So we'll get proof positive of your doomsday numbers.
Quote:
...but the # of infected is rapidly going up.
So there's still a need for way more ventilators.
new york just had their 5th day in a row with less positive cases
I thought they had a smaller rate of increase of cases, basically the doubling time went from 2 days to four or something. Exponential growth but at a slower rate? Did I hear that right?
Quote:
...but the # of infected is rapidly going up.
So there's still a need for way more ventilators.
new york just had their 5th day in a row with less positive cases
For example (these are made up numbers to illustrate)
The progression of new needs was something like 10, 15, 22, 31, 42, the increase in new needs per day was 5, 7, 9, 11.
Now the progression is 10, 14, 18, 23, 28. The progression of new needs per day is 4, 4, 5, 5... So the needs per day are still growing, the total number of needs is still growing, its just a slower progression.
So NYC is dealing new one, and more new ones every day. Compounding the problem is that and most of the old ones haven't come off yet. So more beds and ventilators are still needed.
Quote:
...but the # of infected is rapidly going up.
So there's still a need for way more ventilators.
new york just had their 5th day in a row with less positive cases
No according to the data I am looking at, they already have almost 1000 more than yesterday, and the day isn't over.
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
Quote:
In comment 14851739 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
...but the # of infected is rapidly going up.
So there's still a need for way more ventilators.
new york just had their 5th day in a row with less positive cases
I thought they had a smaller rate of increase of cases, basically the doubling time went from 2 days to four or something. Exponential growth but at a slower rate? Did I hear that right?
Yes you heard it right...
As I tried to explain, the second derivative is decreasing. First derivative is still increasing. Its good, but not great.
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
So he is projecting the peak, which will be the wave of people who go infected prior to the lockdown. Which is 2-3 weeks from now (roughly 20-40 days from the day the lockdown started).
Again, nobody knows the exact rates on this thing bc of limited data, but if cases were truly doubling every 2.5-3 days, the 1500 people on ventilators now potentially turns into 6000 a week from now, and 24k 2 weeks from now.
That's the math behind the hope that we get to that April 15th date and the spread is slowing. In China it dramatically slowed around the 4-6 week mark because their lockdown was ironclad. Ours is less so, so the results will likely be less so too at least in some places. In Washington they have been very successful so that's probably our most optimistic data point right now.
Quote:
he said the rate was slowing, his exact words...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
I don't think "rates" work the way you think they do. I can assure you that you are 100% wrong, and whatever you heard about there being less people for the fifth day being confirmed is just a completely false statement.
yesterday was 4500 new cases, and as of his press conference this morning it was 3700 new cases today...
Quote:
In comment 14851630 charlito said:
Quote:
Holland America cruise ship docked in Florida with 4 dead,138 sick. It left March 6th.
Horrible
Is anyone still booking cruises? You would need to have your head examined.
I have a river cruise booked for July 4th, I've had it booked for a year. I've gone on cruises for 30 years, we just love them
I meant during the Pandemic with all we have seen. Not cruises in general.
I hope you can go on and enjoy your cruise in July
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
nygiants - go back and learn or relearn Calc 101.
The listen very, very carefully to what Cuomo is saying. He is talking about the second derivative.
Think of it this way... You are pulling onto a highway. Your speed is the primary function... Your acceleration is the first derivative of your speed. As you get up to speed you ease up your acceleration. The rate of change of your acceleration is you second derivative.
In NYC the number of new cases is still accelerating, but that rate of acceleration is slowing down.
Quote:
In comment 14851766 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
he said the rate was slowing, his exact words...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
I don't think "rates" work the way you think they do. I can assure you that you are 100% wrong, and whatever you heard about there being less people for the fifth day being confirmed is just a completely false statement.
yesterday was 4500 new cases, and as of his press conference this morning it was 3700 new cases today...
I saw 4,700, I think that was the final tally for the day yesterday...
Today its 5,833 and the day isn't over.
Quote:
he said the rate was slowing, his exact words...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
nygiants - go back and learn or relearn Calc 101.
The listen very, very carefully to what Cuomo is saying. He is talking about the second derivative.
Think of it this way... You are pulling onto a highway. Your speed is the primary function... Your acceleration is the first derivative of your speed. As you get up to speed you ease up your acceleration. The rate of change of your acceleration is you second derivative.
In NYC the number of new cases is still accelerating, but that rate of acceleration is slowing down.
i got you and i am going by the numbers he gave for the hospitals, he said himself the recovering rate of patients is higher then going into icu..
god forbid i try and add a little optimism
Quote:
In comment 14851773 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
In comment 14851766 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
he said the rate was slowing, his exact words...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
I don't think "rates" work the way you think they do. I can assure you that you are 100% wrong, and whatever you heard about there being less people for the fifth day being confirmed is just a completely false statement.
yesterday was 4500 new cases, and as of his press conference this morning it was 3700 new cases today...
I saw 4,700, I think that was the final tally for the day yesterday...
Today its 5,833 and the day isn't over.
then i saw wrong
Quote:
Gotta walk him, big dog. Beautiful late afternoon, people all over the place. Kids on swings, group of adolescents smoking weed on park bench in playground. Traffic in the streets. Ice cream trucks abound.
People everywhere, seems totally normal except some in masks. Not most. I mean I am outside too, although I don't know what I would do with my dog he is too big to shit on a wee wee pad. Dog needs exercise too.
Queens is the epicenter of the epicenter too. Contrast this to pics of the Wuhan lockodwn. Where is was a fucking ghost town, or maybe one guy in a mask crossing the street. I think Wuhan has five six more million people than the Big Apple too
I hope this Lockdown, American Style, actually works. I live in NYC, hope we aren't fucked.
That's pretty surprising. I live in Jersey City and it's been empty in the streets for the most part for weeks. Granted, there are people out, but nobody really congregating the way you describe.
Maybe I just pictured something like this would look different. Park jas many people in it. Not just walking through, but setting up camp and hanging. Lots of pedestrian traffic, cars, honestly it doesn't look much different than and ordinary nice afternoon where I am now
Stores, bars, eateries are closed or take out only on those streets or establishments notably less people. But, parks and such look business as usual to me.
Doesn't look like a desolate no mans alnd like pictures from Wuhan, and I sure hope NYC is not on the road to being the next Wuhan
Quote:
In comment 14851766 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
he said the rate was slowing, his exact words...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
nygiants - go back and learn or relearn Calc 101.
The listen very, very carefully to what Cuomo is saying. He is talking about the second derivative.
Think of it this way... You are pulling onto a highway. Your speed is the primary function... Your acceleration is the first derivative of your speed. As you get up to speed you ease up your acceleration. The rate of change of your acceleration is you second derivative.
In NYC the number of new cases is still accelerating, but that rate of acceleration is slowing down.
i got you and i am going by the numbers he gave for the hospitals, he said himself the recovering rate of patients is higher then going into icu..
god forbid i try and add a little optimism
About a week ago there was a 1 day blip where new cases were much lower, then the new cases returned to the regular exponential growth.
Now would be the right time to start seeing that one day blip hospitalizations and ICUs... I saw what he said about rate, I didn't stick around to see him talk about actual numbers. If there was truly a drop in actual numbers, it may just be reflecting that 1 day blip.
Quote:
he said the rate was slowing, his exact words...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
nygiants - go back and learn or relearn Calc 101.
The listen very, very carefully to what Cuomo is saying. He is talking about the second derivative.
Think of it this way... You are pulling onto a highway. Your speed is the primary function... Your acceleration is the first derivative of your speed. As you get up to speed you ease up your acceleration. The rate of change of your acceleration is you second derivative.
In NYC the number of new cases is still accelerating, but that rate of acceleration is slowing down.
The second derivative of d(cases)/dt <0
;)
+1
In Wuhan they had drones with warning messages to stay off the street. All domestic travel in and out was halted, sort of like a cruise ship.
Quote:
In comment 14851766 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
he said the rate was slowing, his exact words...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
nygiants - go back and learn or relearn Calc 101.
The listen very, very carefully to what Cuomo is saying. He is talking about the second derivative.
Think of it this way... You are pulling onto a highway. Your speed is the primary function... Your acceleration is the first derivative of your speed. As you get up to speed you ease up your acceleration. The rate of change of your acceleration is you second derivative.
In NYC the number of new cases is still accelerating, but that rate of acceleration is slowing down.
The second derivative of d(cases)/dt <0
;)
nice...
Actually d(x)/dt is the first derivitive... SO the seconf is just another derivitve of that...
d2(x)/d2(t)
Good that the number of new infections per day is not going up, not good that it's not coming down...
Not happy about those numbers and what it might portend for NY/NJ
I thought I read that yesterday.
https://time.com/5811222/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll/
I will say this again. I have first hand contacts in China and Wuhan. They won't/can't say it directly for fear of the government reprisal. They have all said that there are far more dead than the gov't has admitted. One hinted that is was "orders of magnitude" (her words not mine). Another wrote "x C". Expecting that I would figure out that it was the Roman numeral for 100 as in x100. They may be exaggerating just because of the horror of it.. But it is far, far worse than we know.
I have tried working with the Chinese numbers. They don't work in any model. They always lead to contradictions. They are internally inconsistent and obviously false.
I thought I read that yesterday.
Yeah, but COVID-19 still contributed to an earlier death... Those statements were more a condemnation of Germany and South Korea who attribute death to any comorbidity rather than COVID-19.
Agreed, plus severe travel restrictions with road blocks. Air and trains stopped.
It's gonna hurt for a little while. The alternative is worse, drags it out longer.
Damn Josh, hope it clears up soon.
Quote:
Holland America cruise ship docked in Florida with 4 dead,138 sick. It left March 6th.
Horrible
Is anyone still booking cruises? You would need to have your head examined.
Grotesque.
Glad to hear you are feeling better.
Hope the family is good.
Get your lungs checked when you can. I don't know if there is anything they can do to stop or reverse the scarring if it happens. But better to check early than find out too late that something could have been done earlier.
Josh, very best to you and your family...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
Why is it so important to you to minimize this crisis?
Quote:
he said the rate was slowing, his exact words...
he also said the number of recovered is happening quicker then the people being added to the icu almost 2 to 1
Why is it so important to you to minimize this crisis?
How am i minimizing it? did i say it was not serious or not a big deal? did i say evwryone go out and party it up? no..
sorry for trying to be a little optimistic
The data scientists on this thread would be better qualified to evaluate this model than I am. There's a full paper that lost me on page 4 with this:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
Thanks! It's very interesting with the state by state breakdowns
Yesterday Dr Birx pretty much laughed off the need for more ventilators.
Which is it?
It's that we'd rather have too many than too few
sorry if someone has already answered this, but, yes, they can be reused
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last Wednesday and got a call today that it came back positive for corona. I’m def on the back 9 of this virus though. Most symptoms gone but still have a lingering cough that could last a while.
Damn Josh, hope it clears up soon.
Sorry to learn this. Very glad you add that you're on the back nine -- and will b with us for a while.
I had something a week or so ago that checked all the boxes for corona, and for the common cold. No test available. I'm hoping it was covid 19
Curious as to what the timeline of symptoms were...thank goodness it appears you’re OK
the rate of scientific innovations has been impressive to watch. whenever this is over I expect that 1 of these innovations will end up being a big difference in things turning out a lot better than it could have been.
You and me both. Glad you’re heading in to the clubhouse with this one. Drinks at the 19th hole.
If you look at the potential second order effects of not sheltering in place, you are likely to see work absenteeism shoot up. Given that you would also see the spread of viral symptoms amongst children, you would also likely see work absenteeisms increase for taking care of kids.
Given the potential duration of symptoms, 2+ weeks, that could have a massive impact on small business viability. At this point, a shelter in place has potentially created expectations that we are facing similar harms, which have led to steps that I don't think we would have taken (until too late) with no quarantine; the debt holidays (hopefully more widespread).
Kicker: You dazzle me with your skill at this stuff. "Second order effects" intimidates me. But I have to ask. Is it that you think money is going to stop going back and forth? No trade, no buying, no selling? Hard to recreate once slowed or stopped? I do not get this.
Say half of all small businesses shut down and stop selling the stuff they sold yesterday (or in the year before). Just shut down, go home, do not pay anybody, like, three -ten people, leave their pens and paper where they were when they left, lock up, leave. All because everyone is frightened and will not go out to stores or whatever. Or all were fired and don't have money right now. Say the small business owner rents.
Say the landlord would like to foreclose and re-rent when he is not paid, but realises that, in this time, he cannot do so readily -- or maybe at all. So he does nothing for a while. In the meanwhile, starving, the owner who delayed his rent or mortgage payment, leaving it and his landlord or bank to the unbelievably slow judicial system for redress, regains his courage and opens it up again after calling at least some of his former employees and finding them still unemployed and happy to go back to work as before. Do you think everyone who was his customer before has forgotten him and won't come back right away when they find he's open again?
We're no longer a horse-ride away from each other. They'll be back like lightening. The money will flow again right away. It is its nature. All over the country and internationally, too. (Of course I know it is more complicated than that, but isn't all that the same underneath -- just more nonsense of buying and selling this or that?)
Why am I wrong about this -- as I think you mean to tell me I am? Or do I misunderstand you?
This would be great if it worked but there really isn't much evidence that it does to this point.
I think the premise is wrong for 2 reasons:
1. I think some customers will come back. But if it's a long malaise, a lot of people may be slightly more hesitant to shop local, because that tends to be a little more pricey. And given that small businesses offer products that are much more "income sensitive" (i.e., more willing to buy if richer), I think that halts any comeback.
2. The pre-supposition is that everything recovers at an equal rate. We know that the labor market tends to lag a recovery, so incomes and employment come a bit after businesses start feeling better. And the delay differs by industry. So, while some may recover fast, others (restaurant and hospitality tends to be slower) won't. And that is what will eventually drag down the spending.
Wuhan has seven Funeral Parlors: if it is calculated that each of them will distribute urns at the same rate as the one in Wuchang, it adds up to an estimated 45,500 urns for the city of Wuhan alone.
Perhaps not all of these deaths can be attributed to coronavirus, but it is almost certain that the official figures are purposely underestimated.
That is Wuhan alone. I've heard that other provinces were harder hit as well.
I had an email exchange with my contact in Wuhan. I asked if everybody is getting the ashes of family members now. She said that many are frustrated, they can't get the ashes.
I spent a couple years leading a project there as an ex-pat. Most of the people I know are in Shang-hai.
I think the premise is wrong for 2 reasons:
1. I think some customers will come back. But if it's a long malaise, a lot of people may be slightly more hesitant to shop local, because that tends to be a little more pricey. And given that small businesses offer products that are much more "income sensitive" (i.e., more willing to buy if richer), I think that halts any comeback.
2. The pre-supposition is that everything recovers at an equal rate. We know that the labor market tends to lag a recovery, so incomes and employment come a bit after businesses start feeling better. And the delay differs by industry. So, while some may recover fast, others (restaurant and hospitality tends to be slower) won't. And that is what will eventually drag down the spending.
Thanks. Helpful. Where I live money is not keeping people from what they like and is convenient. Fear is, though.
Understand about recovery at different rates and labor market lag. Not at all surprised by that, though the labor market might be much more efficient today than once it was. Such a lag draqging through everything for a while would unavoidably slow it all down and kill off those who could not tolerate delay. And there are some, I guess, though maybe fewer in small business, especially very small, which may simply be more flexible and better equipped with loyal customers than large ones. (Worrying about my favorite small Italian restaurant and will check it tomorrow, confinement or not.)
Interesting. If they under reported deaths they would also have to have underreported infections, since the fraction of deaths was relatively high there.
Of course, they may be telling the truth and these reports are false...
Thank goodness an open society (South Korea) was able to respond in a transparent way...so we know it can actually be done.
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Second order effect is just another way of saying indirect effects (so, maybe not what you think, but can be reasonably ascribed to the base situation).
I think the premise is wrong for 2 reasons:
1. I think some customers will come back. But if it's a long malaise, a lot of people may be slightly more hesitant to shop local, because that tends to be a little more pricey. And given that small businesses offer products that are much more "income sensitive" (i.e., more willing to buy if richer), I think that halts any comeback.
2. The pre-supposition is that everything recovers at an equal rate. We know that the labor market tends to lag a recovery, so incomes and employment come a bit after businesses start feeling better. And the delay differs by industry. So, while some may recover fast, others (restaurant and hospitality tends to be slower) won't. And that is what will eventually drag down the spending.
\
Thanks. Helpful. Where I live money is not keeping people from what they like and is convenient. Fear is, though.
Understand about recovery at different rates and labor market lag. Not at all surprised by that, though the labor market might be much more efficient today than once it was. Such a lag draqging through everything for a while would unavoidably slow it all down and kill off those who could not tolerate delay. And there are some, I guess, though maybe fewer in small business, especially very small, which may simply be more flexible and better equipped with loyal customers than large ones. (Worrying about my favorite small Italian restaurant and will check it tomorrow, confinement or not.)
One day, it will be an interesting study, but the impact of people banding around their favorite small businesses.
I live in a very large metro area, though relatively poor, and the amount of time and money people have invested in going out to support the small businesses is impressive. About 90% of restaurants were going to shut down last week, but they have switched to family style dinners and to-go orders, and are at least surviving.
I think we're a leading area for what happens elsewhere in the country, but I expect this bump to not last, especially given the unemployment numbers.
While I could theoretically see a scenario where we exit a recession in Q4, no, I don't think that in real terms (as you mentioned, unemployment, prices, manufacturing ...), we don't come close to exiting this for quite some time.
This is one nasty fucker.
The coronavirus can damage the heart, even in people with no history of heart disease - ( New Window )
Anyone infected should use much caution especially around the home and family because this study, summary article linked below, indicated people may be contagious for weeks after symptoms resolve.
Infectious after weeks... - ( New Window )
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http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Wuhan-endless-queues-for-ashes-of-coronavirus-dead-cast-doubts-on-numbers-49673.html
Interesting. If they under reported deaths they would also have to have underreported infections, since the fraction of deaths was relatively high there.
Of course, they may be telling the truth and these reports are false...
Thank goodness an open society (South Korea) was able to respond in a transparent way...so we know it can actually be done.
The person I know in Wuhan is unrelated to my work over there. She was a former neighbor, our families are close friends. She is a techie. She went in early January to visit family and got stuck. The first I heard from her was when she was speaking to a group of us on speaker phone. She is also a techie, and since that call we organically worked out a way of talking coded in a way that makes it seem like we are talking about building software. She has relayed horrific details that I hesitate to post because they are so sensational I doubt people will believe it.
That said, I have known for quite some time that the real toll in China is much higher. As I worked on the my model I kept running into results that were nonsensical for the Chinese data. I was able to share some of it with her, she kept telling me I needed more cache and more RAM memory to make the program work... The message being cache = dead, RAM = infected. Finally settled at 125K dead in Wuhan and about 950K infected. The numbers worked in the model. The numbers fit with Italy.
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While the most severe cases of the new coronavirus typically involve respiratory failure, COVID-19 doesn't always affect only a patient's lungs. The virus sometimes causes infection and swelling in the heart and surrounding muscles, which can be fatal.
This is one nasty fucker. The coronavirus can damage the heart, even in people with no history of heart disease - ( New Window )
Wow thanks widmer...
That is truly nasty, so not only lasting lung damage, but lasting heart damage. And people still want to let this thing just run through the population.
My personal estimate, is that total number of infections is about 30% higher, so about 1.25M. But I have no way of confirming that guess.
My personal estimate, is that total number of infections is about 30% higher, so about 1.25M. But I have no way of confirming that guess.
If true those numbers are terrifying and portends disaster in Europe and America where it is far more difficult to lock things down.
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get results in 5 minutes
the rate of scientific innovations has been impressive to watch. whenever this is over I expect that 1 of these innovations will end up being a big difference in things turning out a lot better than it could have been.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).
By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 77 degrees Fahrenheit for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.
* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only
-between 3 hours (fabric and porous),
-4 hours (copper and wood)
-24 hours (cardboard),
- 42 hours (metal) and
-72 hours (plastic).
But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars.
They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
* You have to Moisturize dry hands from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
-JOHNS HOPKINS HOSPITAL
HTH
The data scientists on this thread would be better qualified to evaluate this model than I am. There's a full paper that lost me on page 4 with this:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
I skimmed this Eric. It looks more like a curve fitting model than an epidemic model. The number of cases, deaths whatever follows an assumed distribution, and the parameters are fit to that distribution to forecast the numbers.
This is different from a classic epidemic model where the processes are modeled, transmission rates, recoveries, and the distribution results. The predictive model has no mechanistic basis, but that does not mean it will make bad predictions.
As we have talked about, the more mechanistic models have parameters and make predictions, but if our control measures work, then certain parameters (such as contact rates) will change, and the model will make new predictions. The same is true here, the shape of the curve (a guaussian) function is assumed, but since it is early in the epidemic, the biology of the epidemic may change and the parameters that best fit the distribution may need to change to update the predictions. The paper says as much.
It makes the prediction of 80K deaths, which is lower than most epidemic models. The Imperial College model predictions over a million using the same data. The hope is that we have/get our acts together and the underlying parameters change for the better in bo cases.
Not sure what forecasts you are looking at but most of the strategists I follow - including my wife - have revised to 2700-3100 range at year end. I guess JPM is the one broker house that for whatever reason remains bulled up.
Most estimates currently assume -10 to -15% gdp in 2q and starting to revert to normalization by 3q. I Think most are starting to see that as someone optimistic. Don’t forget the market reflects forward 12-24 month expectations though so year end prices reflect expectations for 2020-2021.
Personally we sold a bunch of stock in January and I unloaded all my muni exposure last week after the market rallied, esp munis following the Fed programs. I’m sure the Feds will bail out cities and states in next package ... but their finances are fucked and I don’t want to deal with it.
Buying the next dip down to 2000-2100 though. Matter of when not if.
Trump drug Regime? OOOKAAAAAYYY
Scott Adams is on about the same level as Alex Jones
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Hydroxycloropine, Zpak, and zinc for 4 days of a suggested 5 day regimen. Nothing has been said about the results. If it's working, the number of people needing ventilators will go down substantially in the near future. Listen to Scott Adam's podcasts, the Dilbert guy. He's pretty on top of this. He thinks this therapy really works and the government is keeping it quiet so far because they don't have enough of the drug and don't want to create a run on it. India, which is a major manufacturer of hydroxycloropive, is not allowing it to be exported. Would they do that if it didn't work?
Trump drug Regime? OOOKAAAAAYYY
Scott Adams is on about the same level as Alex Jones
Here is the latest I've seen on this topic in the literature...
Quantifying treatment effects of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for COVID-19: a secondary analysis of an open label non-randomized clinical trial (Gautret et al, 2020)
...more modern analytical methods including survival models, have been applied to these data, and show modest to no impact of HCQ treatment, with more significant effects from the HCQ-AZ combination, potentially suggesting a role for co-infections in COVID-19 pathogenesis. The trial of Gautret and colleagues, with consideration of the effect sizes, and p-values from multiple models, does not provide sufficient evidence to support wide-scale rollout of HCQ monotherapy for the treatment of COVID-19; larger randomzied studies should be considered. However, these data do suggest further study of HCQ-AZ combination therapy should be prioritized as rapidly as possible.
Lonk - ( New Window )
I am in no way shape or form thinking I have this, but what are they asking people that are feeling Ill? Is it to ride it out at home until it gets worse? Are you supposed to get checked out?
I am in no way shape or form thinking I have this, but what are they asking people that are feeling Ill? Is it to ride it out at home until it gets worse? Are you supposed to get checked out?
The #1 advice I've been hearing is if you concerned, call your doctor. This CDC info page is worth a look, esp the self-checker...
Hope you feel better soon!
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Normally healthy 42 yo I am, do have elevated BP that I'm on meds for. But about week ago awful lower back pains that disabled me for the week. Now that's cleared up and I have a chest cold starting.
I am in no way shape or form thinking I have this, but what are they asking people that are feeling Ill? Is it to ride it out at home until it gets worse? Are you supposed to get checked out?
The #1 advice I've been hearing is if you concerned, call your doctor. This CDC info page is worth a look, esp the self-checker...
Hope you feel better soon!
Forgot the link...
CDC - ( New Window )
Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive - ( New Window )
It really isn't. Article after article state this is unlikely, including a podcast with Fauci and Gupta on CNN. They cite faulty testing is likely to blame. I have posted articles earlier in the thread on this, and I'm just lazy to go back and find them again. Think about it, why would they want to get blood from people who have had the virus already to give to people who have it?
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Doctors still feel it's unlikely but have not ruled out reinfection. Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive - ( New Window )
It really isn't. Article after article state this is unlikely, including a podcast with Fauci and Gupta on CNN. They cite faulty testing is likely to blame. I have posted articles earlier in the thread on this, and I'm just lazy to go back and find them again. Think about it, why would they want to get blood from people who have had the virus already to give to people who have it?
I agree that false positives are a strong possibility here. But using the blood from people who have had the virus, convalescent plasma, is a different thing altogether, unless I am missing your point there.
. . . MIT has a living wage calculator. Basically, how much you need to make to live in basic living standards.
So, essentially, the average American family of 4 (2 working adults, 2 children) needs about $1,300 per week. If you're unemployed, you will make ABOUT the minimum. If you're working part-time, you're likely to hit some troubles immediately. Depending on state-by-state rules, unemployment may not be an option, and the stimulus checks are likely to be too late.
It's going to be tight. [/quote]
What an incredible find you've come up with -- the MIT Living Wage Calculator and all its incredible, localized detail. Wow! Thanks.
Call and follow his/her instructions.
Drive up testing discontinued around here, but my recollection is that they recommended (if not mandated) you call the doc first. Morons rushing to get tested with no, or mild symptoms, are clogging up the system.
At a bare minimum, self quarantine to the best extent possible (including from others in your household) until you can sort it out.
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In comment 14852161 widmerseyebrow said:
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Doctors still feel it's unlikely but have not ruled out reinfection. Recovered Coronavirus Patients Test Negative ... Then Positive - ( New Window )
It really isn't. Article after article state this is unlikely, including a podcast with Fauci and Gupta on CNN. They cite faulty testing is likely to blame. I have posted articles earlier in the thread on this, and I'm just lazy to go back and find them again. Think about it, why would they want to get blood from people who have had the virus already to give to people who have it?
I agree that false positives are a strong possibility here. But using the blood from people who have had the virus, convalescent plasma, is a different thing altogether, unless I am missing your point there.
My assumption is they are related, although being and engineer and not a doctor I could be wrong, but let me past this paragraph from an article describing the procedure better than I can. To me this says that people who recover have built up antibodies to kill off the virus. If they have those antibodies then they will not get it again. These antibodies can then help others who haven't built them up yet.
"Patients who have recovered from a disease have permanent antibodies generated by the immune system floating in their blood plasma, the liquid component of blood. To turn that into a drug, the plasma is harvested, tested for safety, and purified to isolate those protective antibodies. When injected into a new patient, the “plasma-derived therapy” — also known as convalescent plasma — provides “passive immunity” until the patient’s immune system can generate its own antibodies.
Mike Ryan, the head of the WHO’s emergencies program, has said convalescent plasma is a “very important area to pursue” as a potential treatment for patients with Covid-19. “It must be given at the right time because it mops up the virus in the system and it just gives the new patient’s immune system a vital push at the time it needs it — but it has to be carefully time and it’s not always successful.”
JP Morgan - 3400
Goldman - 3000 I think Goldman just lowered there’s again this week
BofA - 3100
UBS - 3200
Morgan - 2700
There are a bunch lo were as well I was just referring to the bigger shops. Not saying they are any better than the smaller shops.
“We have one now for HIV/AIDS, and we know that Tamiflu would stop an outbreak of certain influenzas. So we know that antivirals can be used as surrogate or pseudo vaccines. It'll be a lot easier to manufacture billions of doses of an antiviral. I'm hoping that we find an antiviral that is not only curative but is preventative. I'm confident of the former. In the next four months, I'm hopeful of the latter.”
Leading Epidemiologist 'Absolutely Confident' Antiviral Drugs Will Stem COVID-19 Pandemic - ( New Window )
This is the drag; 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (no, not all poor). . .
The idea that the debt held by consumers amounts to 70% of all consumer expenditures maybe an overstatement. The expenditures also could be financed by borrowings not recorded anywhere (e.g., intrafamily borrowing or borrowings from retirement plan assets, even when limited as those often are), gifts, inheritances and liquidation of such assets, or withdrawals from periodic liquidations of other assets (e.g., in retirement accounts, taxable though those withdrawals are, selling things of value for cash, invisibly to avoid tax). In that case overall consumer buying power may be materially greater than you project. By how much? I have no idea. This would not seem to be enough to undercut your point about the overall effect of people being out of work, though.
Anyone infected should use much caution especially around the home and family because this study, summary article linked below, indicated people may be contagious for weeks after symptoms resolve. Infectious after weeks... - ( New Window )
Excellent, important link. Thanks!
CDC to recommend masks for all Americans - ( New Window )
CNBC Now
@CNBCnow
· 20m
BREAKING: Trump considering 'enforceable' quarantine in New York, New Jersey and parts of Connecticut https://cnbc.com/2020/03/28/trump-considering-quarantine-in-new-york-new-jersey-and-parts-of-connecticut.html
JP Morgan - 3400
Goldman - 3000 I think Goldman just lowered there’s again this week
BofA - 3100
UBS - 3200
Morgan - 2700
There are a bunch lo were as well I was just referring to the bigger shops. Not saying they are any better than the smaller shops.
Citi 2700
Barclays 3000
Credit Suisse 2700
Rbc 2750
Also big shops. In any event most of the strategists have great Fundamental models, but we are in unchartered territory in terms of an external pandemic so without knowing when we go back to normal or quasi normal... you take these forecasts with a grain of salt
But the ridiculous people who buy crap they can’t afford, have to drive 50k car, must mortgage their future because little Johnny or suzie need to go to the college of their dreams, need a 2500 sq ft home instead of a 1500ft. Etc
Just played out over American consumerism. It’s like the fall of the Roman Empire
We pay ourselves first, probably 35% of our net income after 401k goes to savings
Even if we can afford more we don’t
Sure I have some dumb ass expenses, like 2 weeks of a Westin timeshare in Maui dumb, but we can afford it without screwing up our savings
1/2 the country lives in a house of cards. And sitting by their mailbox waiting for a government check from stimulus. We will get zero. And unless this goes on 5 yrs, we won’t need it. My green shoot from this covid tribulation would be knock some sense into consumer
As I posted earlier in the thread, why is this info being released? What benefit comes from publicizing this?
It only emboldens crime.
Both of these sectors have already been impacted. Foodservice distributors are down close to 80% with the only customers who are still purchasing are healthcare and a small amount of education where some schools are still providing meals for kids in poverty stricken areas.
Whole truckloads of food orders are being refused when they arrive at the foodservice distributor's dock because they have no room for anymore inventory. Some of their employees are on furlough. The smallest independent distributors are going to take the biggest hit as they are less likely to endure a long outage.
The hostpitality industry is almost completely shut down. There are some properties that are providing free rooms for doctors and nurses, but outside of that occupancy is down more than 90%
Now, the longer this lasts, the more of the independent restaurants will simply go out of business. Although we will see smaller lodging businesses also impacted, I believe the closures will be much smaller (even as a percent of the total) than independent restaurants.
Credit terms are already being lengthened from the food and disposables manufacturers to the distributors, and then from the distributors to the restaurants. Two major distributors told me they have an "all hands on deck" approach to contacting all of their customers. Offering what they can while at the same time finding out when they can pay their last invoice.
But the ridiculous people who buy crap they can’t afford, have to drive 50k car, must mortgage their future because little Johnny or suzie need to go to the college of their dreams, need a 2500 sq ft home instead of a 1500ft. Etc
Just played out over American consumerism. It’s like the fall of the Roman Empire
We pay ourselves first, probably 35% of our net income after 401k goes to savings
Even if we can afford more we don’t
Sure I have some dumb ass expenses, like 2 weeks of a Westin timeshare in Maui dumb, but we can afford it without screwing up our savings
1/2 the country lives in a house of cards. And sitting by their mailbox waiting for a government check from stimulus. We will get zero. And unless this goes on 5 yrs, we won’t need it. My green shoot from this covid tribulation would be knock some sense into consumer
Good luck with that. Did it feel good to type this out at least?
CNBC Now
@CNBCnow
· 20m
BREAKING: Trump considering 'enforceable' quarantine in New York, New Jersey and parts of Connecticut https://cnbc.com/2020/03/28/trump-considering-quarantine-in-new-york-new-jersey-and-parts-of-connecticut.html
Nobody knows what this means and power resides with governors on this stuff not federal. I assume what he’s trying to do is stop New Yorkers from continuing to flock down to Florida. I don’t think anything changes in terms of being allowed to go out for essentials.
@JonLemire
·
41m
Cuomo denies speaking to Trump about possible NY quarantine, as President just claimed.
Cuomo: “I don’t even know what that means”
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The major impacts over the course of the next few weeks will be the restaurant and hospitality sector.
Both of these sectors have already been impacted. Foodservice distributors are down close to 80% with the only customers who are still purchasing are healthcare and a small amount of education where some schools are still providing meals for kids in poverty stricken areas.
Whole truckloads of food orders are being refused when they arrive at the foodservice distributor's dock because they have no room for anymore inventory. Some of their employees are on furlough. The smallest independent distributors are going to take the biggest hit as they are less likely to endure a long outage.
The hostpitality industry is almost completely shut down. There are some properties that are providing free rooms for doctors and nurses, but outside of that occupancy is down more than 90%
Now, the longer this lasts, the more of the independent restaurants will simply go out of business. Although we will see smaller lodging businesses also impacted, I believe the closures will be much smaller (even as a percent of the total) than independent restaurants.
Credit terms are already being lengthened from the food and disposables manufacturers to the distributors, and then from the distributors to the restaurants. Two major distributors told me they have an "all hands on deck" approach to contacting all of their customers. Offering what they can while at the same time finding out when they can pay their last invoice.
Of course, but there are about 18 million people in the food service/drinks and hotel sector. 3.8 million new UI claims means that only about a sixth of the employees have felt an impact. If half of all these places are impacted, that means that we will see a 200-percent increase in UI claims.
That's what I mean by impacted in the next few weeks; that is a massive increase. That basically brings the unemployment rate to around 12-13%.
Now that I had my coffee, realize should of posted A different stream, something geared more to finance.
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And I'll say it again. In the past year, we've seen consumer expenditures increase by $2 trillion, while debt held by consumers increased by $1.4 trillion. So, 70% of all consumer expenditures were financed by debt.
This is the drag; 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (no, not all poor). . .
The idea that the debt held by consumers amounts to 70% of all consumer expenditures maybe an overstatement. The expenditures also could be financed by borrowings not recorded anywhere (e.g., intrafamily borrowing or borrowings from retirement plan assets, even when limited as those often are), gifts, inheritances and liquidation of such assets, or withdrawals from periodic liquidations of other assets (e.g., in retirement accounts, taxable though those withdrawals are, selling things of value for cash, invisibly to avoid tax). In that case overall consumer buying power may be materially greater than you project. By how much? I have no idea. This would not seem to be enough to undercut your point about the overall effect of people being out of work, though.
Absolutely; it's pretty hard to capture those types of inter- and intra-family transfers that may alter the conclusion.
But given that (off the top of my head) around 55-percent of Americans over the age of 50 have little (to no) assets for retirement, I expect that number to not materially change.
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3000 have flu like symptoms? What happens when all the cops get sick?
As I posted earlier in the thread, why is this info being released? What benefit comes from publicizing this?
It only emboldens crime.
Agree. Just like the amount of Military personnel that have it, is classified for a reason. Can't imagine the #
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In comment 14851434 kicker said:
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The major impacts over the course of the next few weeks will be the restaurant and hospitality sector.
Both of these sectors have already been impacted. Foodservice distributors are down close to 80% with the only customers who are still purchasing are healthcare and a small amount of education where some schools are still providing meals for kids in poverty stricken areas.
Whole truckloads of food orders are being refused when they arrive at the foodservice distributor's dock because they have no room for anymore inventory. Some of their employees are on furlough. The smallest independent distributors are going to take the biggest hit as they are less likely to endure a long outage.
The hostpitality industry is almost completely shut down. There are some properties that are providing free rooms for doctors and nurses, but outside of that occupancy is down more than 90%
Now, the longer this lasts, the more of the independent restaurants will simply go out of business. Although we will see smaller lodging businesses also impacted, I believe the closures will be much smaller (even as a percent of the total) than independent restaurants.
Credit terms are already being lengthened from the food and disposables manufacturers to the distributors, and then from the distributors to the restaurants. Two major distributors told me they have an "all hands on deck" approach to contacting all of their customers. Offering what they can while at the same time finding out when they can pay their last invoice.
Of course, but there are about 18 million people in the food service/drinks and hotel sector. 3.8 million new UI claims means that only about a sixth of the employees have felt an impact. If half of all these places are impacted, that means that we will see a 200-percent increase in UI claims.
That's what I mean by impacted in the next few weeks; that is a massive increase. That basically brings the unemployment rate to around 12-13%.
Isn't one of the points of the just passed stimulus package (and future packages) to give small and medium businesses money so they can keep people on the payroll rather than laying them off? Also I believe that they don't have to pay the money back either, as long as they put it to keeping employees.
I guess my general point is there are a lot of things going on by the govt, the social distancing, vaccine creation, etc., that will positively effect the results and the curves. I am not sure how accurate it is to use worse case scenarios, which I am defining as the "if we were doing nothing" scenario, because clearly we are and clearly we expect positive results.
So, it's one of the downsides of Walmart, Amazon, Target, etc.
If the supply chain becomes fragmented, prices and savings will both go up. That will decrease the standards of living, potentially quite dramatically, in the near term, as people get used to less.
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In comment 14852288 EricJ said:
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In comment 14851434 kicker said:
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The major impacts over the course of the next few weeks will be the restaurant and hospitality sector.
Both of these sectors have already been impacted. Foodservice distributors are down close to 80% with the only customers who are still purchasing are healthcare and a small amount of education where some schools are still providing meals for kids in poverty stricken areas.
Whole truckloads of food orders are being refused when they arrive at the foodservice distributor's dock because they have no room for anymore inventory. Some of their employees are on furlough. The smallest independent distributors are going to take the biggest hit as they are less likely to endure a long outage.
The hostpitality industry is almost completely shut down. There are some properties that are providing free rooms for doctors and nurses, but outside of that occupancy is down more than 90%
Now, the longer this lasts, the more of the independent restaurants will simply go out of business. Although we will see smaller lodging businesses also impacted, I believe the closures will be much smaller (even as a percent of the total) than independent restaurants.
Credit terms are already being lengthened from the food and disposables manufacturers to the distributors, and then from the distributors to the restaurants. Two major distributors told me they have an "all hands on deck" approach to contacting all of their customers. Offering what they can while at the same time finding out when they can pay their last invoice.
Of course, but there are about 18 million people in the food service/drinks and hotel sector. 3.8 million new UI claims means that only about a sixth of the employees have felt an impact. If half of all these places are impacted, that means that we will see a 200-percent increase in UI claims.
That's what I mean by impacted in the next few weeks; that is a massive increase. That basically brings the unemployment rate to around 12-13%.
Isn't one of the points of the just passed stimulus package (and future packages) to give small and medium businesses money so they can keep people on the payroll rather than laying them off? Also I believe that they don't have to pay the money back either, as long as they put it to keeping employees.
I guess my general point is there are a lot of things going on by the govt, the social distancing, vaccine creation, etc., that will positively effect the results and the curves. I am not sure how accurate it is to use worse case scenarios, which I am defining as the "if we were doing nothing" scenario, because clearly we are and clearly we expect positive results.
Yes, the stimulus could impact those numbers. But how long until money starts flowing through the system? The UI numbers are already starting, and these sectors have been hard hit. It may slow down the rate, but profit margins in these sectors are already very tight.
And even with the small business loans, consider what a mild (10%) reduction in eating-out expenses could do to that industry. If their profit margin is 5%, quick and dirty math would suggest that with no change in cost structure, they are still losing money each month.
The 60.8 Million cases and 12,469 deaths that you see being referenced are after-the-fact estimations based on statistical models and NOT actual confirmed cases like the totals of COVID-19 deaths/cases we're seeing reported in the news in real-time.
A quote from From the CDC itself. "From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus." Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/27/those-covid-19-death-toll-figures-are-incomplete/
I relied a lot on the information from the article above. If you can't access it due to the paywall, just use Incognito browsing to access it (yes, you can use it for more than just Porn).
The point of the article is basically that comparing the estimated after-the-fact swine flu totals with the real-time confirmed cases/deaths of Covid-19 is an apples to oranges comparison. In order to make an apples to apples comparison, we need to compare the actual confirmed cases of Covid-19 totals to the actual confirmed cases of H1N1. Luckily for us, the CDC was tracking this data during the this time and regularly putting out updates.
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/
So now that we have data that can provide us a more accurate "apples to apples" type of comparison, we can get a better perspective when comparing these two Pandemics.
The first US death related to Covid-19 occurred on February 27th. Today is 03/28/20, meaning that today is the 30th day since the first death was reported. The first US death related to H1N1/Swine Flu was in April 27th, 2009. 30 days after that was May 27th, 2009. So let's compare the totals after 30 days from the first death using the confirmed CDC totals.
Totals after 30 days from 1st U.S. Death
Swine Flu ------- 7,927 cases ------ 11 deaths
COVID-19 ---- 114,958 cases --- 1,878 deaths (as of 1:30PM)
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/052709.htm (Official Source for H1N1 numbers through May 27th, 2009)
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en (Source for COVID-19 numbers, real-time data so only around ~95% accurate)
After about a full year of tracking the data due to the Pandemic, the CDC officially counted 2,117 deaths from the Swine Flu Pandemic as of April 16th, 2010. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/041610.htm
So as you can see, there really isn't a comparison between the two Pandemics when you use the same data to compare them. What we're dealing with today is far more devastating. I mean just look at the numbers. 1,878 deaths vs. 11 deaths through the first month after the initial death.
It's fair to point out that it was the second wave from September 2009 to December 2009 that was the deadliest for H1N1, roughly 1,000 reported deaths during those 4 months. In just the last 4 days alone (03/24 to 03/27), COVID-19 eclipsed 1,000 deaths with the daily death totals still growing by the day.
Not to mention that the official number of deaths due to confirmed cases of Covid-19 is expected to surpass the total for the full year tracking of H1N1 of 2,117 deaths either today or tomorrow. So please, don't let the media trick you into believing we went through the same thing or even something similar 10 years ago by misrepresenting numbers.
I hope all of you and your families remain safe.
Business as usual.
Social Distancing? - ( New Window )
Business as usual. Social Distancing? - ( New Window )
Other than the boardwalk picture, most of them weren't too bad, assuming that most of couples are people who live together or spend a lot of time together anyway
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Here is a link to some pics of the "lockdown" I was describing yesterday. Pics are from parks in Brooklyn I think, I walked in Queens, but saw the same things.
Business as usual. Social Distancing? - ( New Window )
Other than the boardwalk picture, most of them weren't too bad, assuming that most of couples are people who live together or spend a lot of time together anyway
Soccer playing , people on on line ice cream trucks, again I was out myself, when you see it all live and in action, something doesn't seem right.
Contrast with Wuhan pics. I know this is the land of the free, just hope these measures actually work.
1) It can't be "unlikely" and "not a possibility" at the same time. While there is growing evidence of lasting immunity, not all immunologists are convinced. You apparently can't get lasting immunity with ordinary coronavirus infections. We're a few months into this so there are simply no long term studies available. These are infectious disease experts, not my personal opinions.
2) Convalescent plasma is an old treatment that provides temporary protection by injecting another recovered patient's antibodies into a patient who is actively infected. It's not a permanent cure and has little to do with how someone would potentially get reinfected.
3) Although it sounds like a promising treatment to alleviate the strain on hospitals, Fauci also says "there are no proven safe and effective therapies for the coronavirus" as of now. Do you agree that Dr. Fauci's stance could change in time with more data and observation?
All I'm saying is we need to wait and see what the certainties are before any decisions can be made about when we're opening the country back up.
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3) Although it sounds like a promising treatment to alleviate the strain on hospitals, Fauci also says "there are no proven safe and effective therapies for the coronavirus" as of now. Do you agree that Dr. Fauci's stance could change in time with more data and observation?
Going by accepted standards for drug testing, I'm sure Dr. Fauci is correct. But I'd like to know what he'd answer if someone asked him if he would prescribe anything in particular for a family member was symptomatic/tested positive.
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It really isn't. Article after article state this is unlikely, including a podcast with Fauci and Gupta on CNN. They cite faulty testing is likely to blame. I have posted articles earlier in the thread on this, and I'm just lazy to go back and find them again. Think about it, why would they want to get blood from people who have had the virus already to give to people who have it?
1) It can't be "unlikely" and "not a possibility" at the same time. While there is growing evidence of lasting immunity, not all immunologists are convinced. You apparently can't get lasting immunity with ordinary coronavirus infections. We're a few months into this so there are simply no long term studies available. These are infectious disease experts, not my personal opinions.
2) Convalescent plasma is an old treatment that provides temporary protection by injecting another recovered patient's antibodies into a patient who is actively infected. It's not a permanent cure and has little to do with how someone would potentially get reinfected.
3) Although it sounds like a promising treatment to alleviate the strain on hospitals, Fauci also says "there are no proven safe and effective therapies for the coronavirus" as of now. Do you agree that Dr. Fauci's stance could change in time with more data and observation?
All I'm saying is we need to wait and see what the certainties are before any decisions can be made about when we're opening the country back up.
I am just getting tired of people finding the most negative things they can and posting them, not matter how unlikely it is they will happen. Its like a race to the bottom here. The truth is that this article says, and the title could have been, something like "Experts agree that reinfection is unlikely". Instead you chose to title it "Reinfection a possibility".
I don't get the constant negative feedback loop on this thread. Its gone from being informational to just being crap. Lets post the post the good and the bad please.
Masks you're too late.. people are ebaying them for ridiculous prices with buy it now prices to avoid getting cancelled for price gouging. And people are paying them.. $15 boxes of 3M masks going for $200, $300, $400.
I use Zoomget for gloves for auto work, they still have some in stock depending on your hand size. Here are some Larges:
https://zoomget.com/collections/cleaning-sanitation/products/1st-choice-green-nitrile-industrial-premium-disposable-gloves-case400?size=Large
A Connecticut doctor was arrested after police say he intentionally coughed on and hugged nurses in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak.
“The witnesses and medical workers believed he was purposely disregarding space and safety concerns involving the coronavirus pandemic,” said UConn spokesperson Stephanie Reitz.
Good career move.
Link is to SNY interview from 2017
sny youtube - ( New Window )
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TIA
Masks you're too late.. people are ebaying them for ridiculous prices with buy it now prices to avoid getting cancelled for price gouging. And people are paying them.. $15 boxes of 3M masks going for $200, $300, $400.
I use Zoomget for gloves for auto work, they still have some in stock depending on your hand size. Here are some Larges:
https://zoomget.com/collections/cleaning-sanitation/products/1st-choice-green-nitrile-industrial-premium-disposable-gloves-case400?size=Large
Thanks!
hc - ( New Window )
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Here is a link to some pics of the "lockdown" I was describing yesterday. Pics are from parks in Brooklyn I think, I walked in Queens, but saw the same things.
Business as usual. Social Distancing? - ( New Window )
Other than the boardwalk picture, most of them weren't too bad, assuming that most of couples are people who live together or spend a lot of time together anyway
Yeah, that isn't terrible, assuming the grouped people live together.
....
I hope all of you and your families remain safe.
Thank you for this detailed and informative post!
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In comment 14852167 PatersonPlank said:
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It really isn't. Article after article state this is unlikely, including a podcast with Fauci and Gupta on CNN. They cite faulty testing is likely to blame. I have posted articles earlier in the thread on this, and I'm just lazy to go back and find them again. Think about it, why would they want to get blood from people who have had the virus already to give to people who have it?
1) It can't be "unlikely" and "not a possibility" at the same time. While there is growing evidence of lasting immunity, not all immunologists are convinced. You apparently can't get lasting immunity with ordinary coronavirus infections. We're a few months into this so there are simply no long term studies available. These are infectious disease experts, not my personal opinions.
2) Convalescent plasma is an old treatment that provides temporary protection by injecting another recovered patient's antibodies into a patient who is actively infected. It's not a permanent cure and has little to do with how someone would potentially get reinfected.
3) Although it sounds like a promising treatment to alleviate the strain on hospitals, Fauci also says "there are no proven safe and effective therapies for the coronavirus" as of now. Do you agree that Dr. Fauci's stance could change in time with more data and observation?
All I'm saying is we need to wait and see what the certainties are before any decisions can be made about when we're opening the country back up.
I am just getting tired of people finding the most negative things they can and posting them, not matter how unlikely it is they will happen. Its like a race to the bottom here. The truth is that this article says, and the title could have been, something like "Experts agree that reinfection is unlikely". Instead you chose to title it "Reinfection a possibility".
I don't get the constant negative feedback loop on this thread. Its gone from being informational to just being crap. Lets post the post the good and the bad please.
An endless loop of long posts strewn with as many academic terms as possible by the same 3-4 posters ... oyyy.
I know some public figures get tested when the associate with people known to have the virus, even if they don't show symptoms. The President was tested when it was discovered that a Brazilian official (who had posed for a picture with President Trump) tested positive. Maybe that's it...
Has there been some positive news?
Has there been some positive news?
Washington seems to have shown that breaking the curve is possible and quarantines work.
Rapid home testing seems close.
Optimism from smart people anti-viral drugs could become the game changer over the next few months.
They seem to florida'ing this hardcore. Warmer weather may be the only thing that prevents a total catastrophe.
The number of daily new cases reported in Italy seems to be starting to flatten. The number of deaths is a trailing stat which may be a week or so behind new cases.
I'd give it another week or so before trying to draw a conclusion. This is all new territory.
Stay well.
Business as usual. Social Distancing? - ( New Window )
The Onion has published a slideshow representing the other end of the spectrum
Haunting Photographs Capture Empty Spaces Around The Country Amid Shelter-In-Place Orders - ( New Window )
Has there been some positive news?
ok, it's sort of anecdotal. Scott Adams personally knows someone with the same story. From dreaded Breitbart, lol.
"A 38-year-old Michigan man with no underlying conditions contracted coronavirus last week and was successfully treated with the drug combination being touted by President Trump.
Jim Santilli told talk radio host Steve Gruber he is “living proof” the combination of the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin works.
Santilli said he became seriously ill March 18 “with severe cardiac and respiratory issues” and was admitted to Henry Ford Macomb Hospital in metro Detroit.
According to Gruber, “Santilli said the biggest problem was waiting for test results that took four days to come back. In the meantime his condition worsened by the hour, and he thought he was going to die.”
“Santilli says he was slowly drowning and was convinced he ‘would not live until midnight.’ That’s when doctors made a decision he says changed everything,” Gruber said.
The survivor said the drug combination began to work “within a few hours.”
Santilli credited Trump for his survival.
“Donald Trump recommending that medication combination saved my life and a lot of other people’s lives,” he told Gruber.
Santilli criticized Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) for her recent threat against doctors and pharmacists, and believed it is a “terrible decision,” adding, “She is sentencing people to death.”
Whitmer sent a letter to medical professionals on March 24:
Prescribing hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine without further proof of efficacy for treating COVID-19 or with the intent to stockpile the drug may create a shortage for patients with lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, or other ailments for which chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are proven treatments. Reports of this conduct will be evaluated and may be further investigated for administrative action. Prescribing any kind of prescription must also be associated with medical documentation showing proof of the medical necessity and medical condition for which the patient is being treated. Again, these are drugs that have not been proven scientifically or medically to treat COVID-19.
According to Gruber:
Santilli added that he isn’t the only one that is alive because of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin either. He said the medical staff told him other patients were also responding well to the treatment and their lives are also being saved."
Scott Adams, fwiw, also thinks that the drug isn't yet being touted because of fear by the government that there isn't a big enough supply and they don't want to start a run on it.
We just talked to my father in law in Largo. Apparently, 2 people have died in their complex (predominantly populated by the elderly, if not entirely).
He is not in the best of health but his spirits are pretty remarkably intact.
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number of tests done in Florida is 40,250. Pathetic.
They seem to florida'ing this hardcore. Warmer weather may be the only thing that prevents a total catastrophe.
LOL - Florida'ing. This is the first time I have laughed all day. I think this is going to be my new favorite verb.
Flatline projected around July
LINK - ( New Window )
Flatline projected around July LINK - ( New Window )
Incredible charts. April is going to be a fun month.
Has there been some positive news?
My wife has a colleague, who lives in Queens, who has had CV symptoms, shortness of breath, fever, cough. He’s mid-thirties, in good health otherwise, with no severe underlying conditions. We are in the middle of a 14 day self-quarantine period, since my wife was in the same office with him. We have had no symptoms.
His doctor told him to self-quarantine and to let him know if his symptoms became worse. If so, he would then have him tested. It never came to that. He also prescribed hydroxychloroquine and a Z-Pack. The young man told my wife today that after two days of taking the medication he was feeling much better and that after five days his symptoms are almost gone! Real story. Real first-hand account. Real results! Good news!
So a local woman and her boyfriend in their 70's contracted the virus. I know this because my Mom played cards with her. She was the first person in Anne Arundel County in Maryland to have contracted the virus...probably during a trip to Europe. She was just released but is still pretty sick and he boyfriend is not expected to make it. He has been on a ventilator for 2 weeks. Scary stuff
So a local woman and her boyfriend in their 70's contracted the virus. I know this because my Mom played cards with her. She was the first person in Anne Arundel County in Maryland to have contracted the virus...probably during a trip to Europe. She was just released but is still pretty sick and he boyfriend is not expected to make it. He has been on a ventilator for 2 weeks. Scary stuff
Great, now that the horse has left the barn, let’s shut the door. And light the barn on fire. Cured!
You can see exactly where Duval County ends and St. John’s County begins.
All beaches in Duval are closed, while St. John’s only blocked parking at the beach.
They are.
He knew he had it, but felt better - ( New Window )
I don't get the constant negative feedback loop on this thread. Its gone from being informational to just being crap. Lets post the post the good and the bad please.
Oh ffs man, my original post I even said it's unlikely. From the article: "Virologists think it is unlikely that a COVID-19 patient could be re-infected so quickly after recovery but caution that it is too soon to know." Apparently the Chinese think its a possibility too, or they wouldn't be putting those patients in isolated medical observation, right? Probably a false positive, but what's the harm in seeing how it turns out? I actually think it's an important thing to monitor and beats the discussion on how soon we can open things back up before we even know anything. If you don't, then skip ahead.
https://preorder.cambridgemask.com/
cough for a few days, fever on and off, foggy head. Last few days his breathing has become labored and he says it feels like someone is sitting on his chest.
My mother is stuck in CT alone, and my brother wants to go up there to help take care of her (I'm in LA). But he's going to have to wait a while to make sure he's symptom free.
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I'm up for optimistic posts, I think we'd all love to see some.
Has there been some positive news?
Washington seems to have shown that breaking the curve is possible and quarantines work.
Rapid home testing seems close.
Optimism from smart people anti-viral drugs could become the game changer over the next few months.
I have the COVID-19 Home test kits in Europe waiting to ship to the USA now. The kits are CE stamped and also have FDA Certificate of Registration. A lot of red tape preventing the kits to enter into the USA... The testing methodology is based on detection of lgM and lgG antibodies.
NY State of Mind - ( New Window )
Trump ever look at road maps, do you think?
Just go to Philly. Never fly out of shitbox Newark/NYC airports.
Voluntary quarantines are probably useless for anyone selfish, or to be kind, worried enough to fly to another state. I wouldn't be surprised to see NY airports have to screen passengers before boarding (a logistical nightmare) and other states stopping cars with NY plates at their borders.
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also quaranteening arrivals from there for 14 days
Just go to Philly. Never fly out of shitbox Newark/NYC airports.
But Route 9 doesn't go to Philly?
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also quaranteening arrivals from there for 14 days
Just go to Philly. Never fly out of shitbox Newark/NYC airports.
? Kind of ironic to classify Newark/NYC that way and then offer up Philly as a suggestion. Philly is the very definition of a shithole.
cough for a few days, fever on and off, foggy head. Last few days his breathing has become labored and he says it feels like someone is sitting on his chest.
My mother is stuck in CT alone, and my brother wants to go up there to help take care of her (I'm in LA). But he's going to have to wait a while to make sure he's symptom free.
My wife and son had it. And. The doctors suspect I did too but my only symptom was a couple days of random bouts of light headedness. But the light headedness was so strong that I nearly fainted a couple times.
My wife had all the symptoms minus the labored breathing. If she had gotten to any point where her breathing was affected while simply just sitting in place, we would have gone to the ER. I’ve posted our whole experience throughout this thread.
Honestly man, if his breathing is truly what your saying he should get the number for their triage and call them to 1. Get their opinion if he should be put on care. 2. Simply to put himself on their radar so they can fast track him to a bed as soon as he tells them he’s coming.
After we spoke with the doctors finally they gave us the Triage information and told us only to call if any of us take a bad turn. And they said once we call them they will set up a time to be seen and fast track our situation from a testing/care stand point. ***One of their key symptoms they told us to use as a bench mark was LABORED breathing.***.
I’m not trying to scare you, but he should be aware that there is a process to this and bed space is limited. Getting in the queue or at the very least on the radar of the health care providers, is paramount in his situation.
I wish him and you and your family the best of luck man. We were lucky enough that we fought it off and everyone has been happy and healthy for days now.
—Side note: My 19 month old son had pink eye when we first went to the doctor's for my wife’s fever and sore throat. Well for those that haven’t seen the latest indicators of Corona Virus that not many people are taking about, pink eye is now a known symptom. Just thought I’d pass that along.
It is hard to comprehend what things will look like if the doubling every 2 days continues for more than another week. On Monday we'd hit 4k, Wednesday 8k, Friday 16k...
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Confirmed U.S. coronavirus-related deaths double in two days, hitting 2,000. It took about a month from the first confirmed death for the U.S. to record 1,000. That toll has risen rapidly as officials have been warning the worst is yet to come.
It is hard to comprehend what things will look like if the doubling every 2 days continues for more than another week. On Monday we'd hit 4k, Wednesday 8k, Friday 16k...
Deaths doubling here every three days now. Confirmed cases doubling every four days.
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also quaranteening arrivals from there for 14 days
Just go to Philly. Never fly out of shitbox Newark/NYC airports.
Or don’t fly right now...
Awesome.
So, I get it they are scared and the virus is no joke, but how exactly does this work legally? If the uniformed guard member shows up to your door in Rhode island asking about who is in your home and you tell them to go fly a kite or bring a warrant/court order or something, what do they do to enforce? Do they force their way in? Pistol whip dad and keep granny down at gunpoint while they count the NY'ers and force personal info out of them? By what law and authority can they enter the home? What if an owner pulls out their piece and says get off my lawn this is the USA?
Roads I get, driving is a privilege not a right, but even then what law was broken to pull someone over? I am no lawyer, but how does this all work. Seems like a strange precedent to me. If this virus keeps going uncontrollably, these questions and their importance will cone up. I also read some other states might close their borders with Louisiana.
Crazy stuff
Rhode Island hunting down New Yorkers. - ( New Window )
Awesome.
Incorrect. I had that trip planned for the hockey game for months. I got a one-way ticket from Alaska Airlines for cheap thanks a lot to the miles program. It wasn't announced that the NHL season was suspended until after I landed in Phoenix. So, then instead of just flying right back, I went to the Grand Canyon for the day, then back home. Nothing was shut down yet, my flight to Phoenix was loaded. I had to get back to Jersey somehow. How else would I get back? Walk home?
Ticket from LAX was cheap. Yeah, that post was a bit facetious, I guess.
Link - ( New Window )
2 people died that were riddled with stage 4 pancreatic cancer....with their defenses so weak.... they picked up covid....passed away.
The local newspaper made a big deal of their deaths..."2 more covid in Lehigh valley"......and not one word of state 4 pancreatic cancer.
2 people died that were riddled with stage 4 pancreatic cancer....with their defenses so weak.... they picked up covid....passed away.
The local newspaper made a big deal of their deaths..."2 more covid in Lehigh valley"......and not one word of state 4 pancreatic cancer.
Has there been some positive news?
Jimmy Dolan has it. I know I’m going to hell ...
2 people died that were riddled with stage 4 pancreatic cancer....with their defenses so weak.... they picked up covid....passed away.
The local newspaper made a big deal of their deaths..."2 more covid in Lehigh valley"......and not one word of state 4 pancreatic cancer.
So people with cancer not be counted? Gotcha..oye
And they plan to send all serious condition with covid to her hospital....as if need be, they can convert their OR rooms and post op rooms into negative pressure rooms....which works like giant ventilators
But covid is very contagious....now they are sending most covid home...unless they have 2 markers..Low white blood count or low platelets....
Now, she thinks they been dealing with covid since December....but not having any covid test who knows, but they were dealing with plenty of pneumonias coming back negative to all know pathogen at the time.
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She is expecting everyone that will be dying of natural causes will get infected with covid before they die and be counted as a covid death.....so please relax on some of these numbers.
2 people died that were riddled with stage 4 pancreatic cancer....with their defenses so weak.... they picked up covid....passed away.
The local newspaper made a big deal of their deaths..."2 more covid in Lehigh valley"......and not one word of state 4 pancreatic cancer.
So people with cancer not be counted? Gotcha..oye
I don't think that was his point. These people were dying of cancer, were going to die anyway, and as such had very weak immune systems. They were in the hospital exposed to Covid 19, so of course they got it. However it wasn't the reason for their death, and they only got it because they were sitting in there. So its no where near the same as a person who is healthy, walking around in Iowa who gets it.
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I'm up for optimistic posts, I think we'd all love to see some.
Has there been some positive news?
Jimmy Dolan has it. I know I’m going to hell ...
Thought the same thing. We can talk Giants and hell together.
So, I get it they are scared and the virus is no joke, but how exactly does this work legally? If the uniformed guard member shows up to your door in Rhode island asking about who is in your home and you tell them to go fly a kite or bring a warrant/court order or something, what do they do to enforce? Do they force their way in? Pistol whip dad and keep granny down at gunpoint while they count the NY'ers and force personal info out of them? By what law and authority can they enter the home? What if an owner pulls out their piece and says get off my lawn this is the USA?
Roads I get, driving is a privilege not a right, but even then what law was broken to pull someone over? I am no lawyer, but how does this all work. Seems like a strange precedent to me. If this virus keeps going uncontrollably, these questions and their importance will cone up. I also read some other states might close their borders with Louisiana.
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Wow! Now that’s just nuts. What in the world is the matter with people these days?
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and people like you are why it will take longer for these charts to peak. All to save on a flight to go somewhere where you will most likely be quarantined anyway.
Awesome.
Incorrect. I had that trip planned for the hockey game for months. I got a one-way ticket from Alaska Airlines for cheap thanks a lot to the miles program. It wasn't announced that the NHL season was suspended until after I landed in Phoenix. So, then instead of just flying right back, I went to the Grand Canyon for the day, then back home. Nothing was shut down yet, my flight to Phoenix was loaded. I had to get back to Jersey somehow. How else would I get back? Walk home?
Ticket from LAX was cheap. Yeah, that post was a bit facetious, I guess.
When you gloat about how awesome cheap flights are during a national crisis it makes you look like you don’t give a shit. My apologies, but you probably should have given more context.
If you definitely had it and now the symptoms are gone you are likely good. From everything written you probably can still transmit it to someone else for like 5 days after your symptoms leave. You likely also have your immune system built up so won't catch it again until next year (like the flu).
The checkpoints on the highways at state borders will be the next step. While it isn't feasible to set up a checkpoint on every road that crosses a state border, the states will focus on the volume crossings. In Florida, their will be a checkpoint on I95 screening for New York license plates.
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Happy Birthday and +1!
What is your experience so far?
I get all sides of it. This is another example of the impact of this thing if it continues to spread unabated.
I was being dramatic in the description, but there are still many important questions about these type of government police actions that need to be addressed and it certainly can be a slippery slope for sure.
I also read in the wall street journal the federal government is tracking cell phone movements to learn about the spread. They claim no personal data is attached to the phone movements, but that poses a major threat to civil liberties too. I would post article, but it is behind a paywall.
These are interesting times with long term ramifications. Uniformed soldiers or police knocking on doors of residencies and searching for people certainly feels very wrong though.
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In comment 14852608 PatersonPlank said:
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also quaranteening arrivals from there for 14 days
Just go to Philly. Never fly out of shitbox Newark/NYC airports.
? Kind of ironic to classify Newark/NYC that way and then offer up Philly as a suggestion. Philly is the very definition of a shithole.
Again, what happens if someone resists? But this seems like immense powers by fiat in the hands of a state executive? Is there a state law to back it up?
Again, what happens if someone resists? But this seems like immense powers by fiat in the hands of a state executive? Is there a state law to back it up?
This thread is full of posts about mandatory quarantines and "sheltering in place", applauding Gov Cuomo for shutting down commerce but when other states and localities try and protect their residents from those with means fleeing the epicenter, it's a civil liberties problem. Check.
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The state of RI is not hunting new yorkers...they are simply trying to get all recent arrivals to shelter in place for 14 days in an attempt to control the outbreak here. I agree that the optics are horrendous...the national guard in knocking on doors...I get that is a slippery slope.
I get all sides of it. This is another example of the impact of this thing if it continues to spread unabated.
I was being dramatic in the description, but there are still many important questions about these type of government police actions that need to be addressed and it certainly can be a slippery slope for sure.
I also read in the wall street journal the federal government is tracking cell phone movements to learn about the spread. They claim no personal data is attached to the phone movements, but that poses a major threat to civil liberties too. I would post article, but it is behind a paywall.
These are interesting times with long term ramifications. Uniformed soldiers or police knocking on doors of residencies and searching for people certainly feels very wrong though.
Scary times indeed. Reading and hearing about all the stories of people calling the police on their neighbors for being outside, hearing them cough, etc. certainly is reminiscent of the Stasi’s in East Block Germany, hope things don’t get as dystopian here, hope people are wise enough.
Again, what happens if someone resists? But this seems like immense powers by fiat in the hands of a state executive? Is there a state law to back it up?
Turning away out of state cars on the highway does not seem like it takes “immense power”. My friend just drove from RI to CT along 95 and said they are making people pull over into a rest stop to check plates. I assume it’s a simple “turn around and go back the way you came”. It’s essentially a giant DUI stop but for out of state plates.
Seems fairly straight forward and much less intrusive then many of the other measures taken to date.
"Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.
But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year."
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Here is the new elite NY hunting task force RI has set up
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does the authority come from? According to articles online, it isn't state troopers or police doing it. The governor of any state can just command national guard troops to search homes? Do they search every home? Where or how are they quarantined? Do they look up records of New Yorkers who own property in the state?
Again, what happens if someone resists? But this seems like immense powers by fiat in the hands of a state executive? Is there a state law to back it up?
Turning away out of state cars on the highway does not seem like it takes “immense power”. My friend just drove from RI to CT along 95 and said they are making people pull over into a rest stop to check plates. I assume it’s a simple “turn around and go back the way you came”. It’s essentially a giant DUI stop but for out of state plates.
Seems fairly straight forward and much less intrusive then many of the other measures taken to date.
Article said they go door to door with national guard soldiers.
To homes within the state
Also, in the USA we are allowed to travel between states freely. Again, this is a emergency situation, but what are the laws? What are the limits? What are the justification? Slippery Slope is real.
I have thought for a long time now this virus would be the major historical event of a generation and that seems to be playing out. These types of questions or changes to US life are part of it.
What is the balance of civil liberties and public health?
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does the authority come from? According to articles online, it isn't state troopers or police doing it. The governor of any state can just command national guard troops to search homes? Do they search every home? Where or how are they quarantined? Do they look up records of New Yorkers who own property in the state?
Again, what happens if someone resists? But this seems like immense powers by fiat in the hands of a state executive? Is there a state law to back it up?
Now, there's all this concern? Where is the concern for the full time residents of these locales, some of which were virtually virus free, getting waves of NY'rs fleeing their own shelter in place orders for other states, carrying the virus with them and lining their SUV's up at the local store? How 'bout those "optics?"
This thread is full of posts about mandatory quarantines and "sheltering in place", applauding Gov Cuomo for shutting down commerce but when other states and localities try and protect their residents from those with means fleeing the epicenter, it's a civil liberties problem. Check.
I see all sides of it. My main point is this stuff is moving fast, and I don't want this to spread to areas that don't have it, I get their concern.
I do like America being a free country too. Toothpaste out of the bottle type of problem with massive police powers by command. Similar to not obliterating the economy to fight the virus, shredding the US constitution to fight it may not be good idea either.
Important questions to be answered and explained. That is my main point.
"Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who is recovering at home from Covid-19, told the Science and Technology Committee that experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less.
But he said that many of those deaths were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year."
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I believe Ferguson is talking about the UK there. Their population of 66m is 1/5 of the US, and they currently have 20k positive cases to our 120k (and half the deaths).
Simply projecting the rate from his model to adjust for a bigger population and you land somewhere between 100k-200k deaths here (which is what Fauci said today - I've linked the clip of his interview below and I think it's highly advisable to take what he says to heart - there's a wide range of unpredictability but it's unlikely we hit the absolute worst case or the best case, it will mostly end up in the middle of the range of the models, which is what his current prediction is acknowledging that there is no way to know for sure).
"I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases," he said, correcting himself to say he meant deaths. "We're going to have millions of cases." But he added "I don't want to be held to that" because the pandemic is "such a moving target.
Fauci this AM - ( New Window )
Yes - the safest thing anyone can do is shelter in place. But for families with kids or pets that's a really hard thing to do in a NYC apartment, and for anyone (especially those with risk factors) even being in a building with that many people is a lot of potential spread even just walking into an elevator.
being quarantined in a NYC high rise is like being on a cruise ship. If people are legally and safely trying to get themselves into a safer situation to hunker down, that doesn't seem so out of bounds to me. I mean, aren't the only people they can pass it along to the people aren't hunkered down themselves?
If you travel from a Hot Spot to a different area then follow the directives.
The problem is a percentage are not which is why more stringent measures need to be taken imo.
Does anyone want to be the person who infects someone older, or with a pre-existing condition or even a health care worker who are needed to save lives?
Many are making sacrifices, please do your part.
The other aspect is the strain all the people migrating from elsewhere pose on small local communities. They are affecting the local hospitals, for example. In places like the Hamptons, for another example, rich people from NYC are showing up and buying up all the groceries, leaving nothing for the locals who are there all year long.
Leaving NYC is really a more selfish act. It is potentially spreading the virus, instead of flattening the curve. It is negatively impacting their ultimate destination's ability to contain and treat the virus. It is affecting the supply chain in small communities.
Stay the fuck home doesn't just mean don't go to work and school. It is also not a suggestion. How do people still not get this?
I hope he's wrong.
for some people there is no choice and they will have to quarantine in the situation described above, but if I was in the situation described above I'd certainly be looking at whatever other options existed to quarantine in a safer way (following all the rules of staying put for 14 days without leaving at all once arriving at the new place and attempting to literally not get within 6 feet of another person for the entire duration of the crisis).
There is a reason this thing spread like crazy in NYC and it's bc people are fundamentally closer together. Responsible people should be allowed to responsibly get their families into a safer situation if that's a choice they want to make.
I don’t disagree with the point you’re making but what’s wrong with it is that it’s almost certainly unconstitutional and illegal. Whether the rationale or thought behind it is reasonable or not.
I hope he's wrong.
It sounds like anyone that has it fights it off and develops antibodies which make you less susceptible for a 2nd bout, but not invincible. So what he’s saying isn’t wrong but it also should t be taken at face value because it lacks nuance that others in the Jews have explained much better.
In fact, in a week or 2 the rates in NY will be showing signs of improvement, while states like Florida that have done jack shit will be soaring.
We need a united effort to fix this. National lockdown, or all the states doing it at the same time.
I hope he's wrong.
I've seen some reports of this, Fauci says that if that's the case than this will be a unique characteristic compared to virtually every other virus we have ever seen. So while I don't think these are made up anecdotes, I think there's a lot of fog of war right now. Some of these stories could involve failures of tests, or delays in test results, etc. I believe Fauci said to be officially over this you need to take 2 negative tests within 24 hours.
How many people are even getting access to take 3 tests to get a sizable data set to evaluate this (1 confirmed positive and then 2 confirmed negatives)? my brother is on day 10 waiting on results on an initial test because his sig other tested positive (she's since recovered but I'm almost certain never got retested and he's still asymptomatic).
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If anything, he needs to remind NYers to follow NYS and NYC restrictions and measures to fight the virus. Stay at home means your current locale, not running off to your summer home, friend's home, etc. That only puts the virus on the move. He can work with the Governor of RI to come up with more acceptable measures to close their borders, but there is nothing wrong with closing them to NYers or anyone else.
I don’t disagree with the point you’re making but what’s wrong with it is that it’s almost certainly unconstitutional and illegal. Whether the rationale or thought behind it is reasonable or not.
for some people there is no choice and they will have to quarantine in the situation described above, but if I was in the situation described above I'd certainly be looking at whatever other options existed to quarantine in a safer way (following all the rules of staying put for 14 days without leaving at all once arriving at the new place and attempting to literally not get within 6 feet of another person for the entire duration of the crisis).
There is a reason this thing spread like crazy in NYC and it's bc people are fundamentally closer together. Responsible people should be allowed to responsibly get their families into a safer situation if that's a choice they want to make.
Exactly. This is a tough situation. If I lived in NYC and had a family I’d want to get them away from the epicenter too. It’s almost like, no it’s not almost like, it IS like people think “I don’t give a shit about you and your family, get back to the epicenter and deal with it. As long as I don’t get it, who gives a fuck”.
America at its finest.
I hope he's wrong.
That is the guess of many I.D. experts at this time. That contracting and surviving the illness will only lead to short-term immunity (i.e. you have the potential to be re-infected the following year).
Many URI viruses have this characteristic, including the ones responsible for the Common Cold and Influenza.
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if you're a family in a building with more than 20 units anywhere in NYC that seems like an extremely risky situation to quarantine. If they have a pet that needs walks, or if anyone in the family needs to leave for food/medicine any of them can bring the virus back to the rest of the family - and are likely to do so because there are literally hundreds of exposures just entering an elevator of a smallish building. Now imagine someone in the family is high risk.
for some people there is no choice and they will have to quarantine in the situation described above, but if I was in the situation described above I'd certainly be looking at whatever other options existed to quarantine in a safer way (following all the rules of staying put for 14 days without leaving at all once arriving at the new place and attempting to literally not get within 6 feet of another person for the entire duration of the crisis).
There is a reason this thing spread like crazy in NYC and it's bc people are fundamentally closer together. Responsible people should be allowed to responsibly get their families into a safer situation if that's a choice they want to make.
Exactly. This is a tough situation. If I lived in NYC and had a family I’d want to get them away from the epicenter too. It’s almost like, no it’s not almost like, it IS like people think “I don’t give a shit about you and your family, get back to the epicenter and deal with it. As long as I don’t get it, who gives a fuck”.
America at its finest.
This sucks for everyone. And, yes, it is more dangerous, at this point in NYC than most parts of the country. But, the movement of people is also a reason it will continue to spread in this country at an alarming rate. Florida, for example, which was slow to take measure, was also overrun by Spring Breakers and people fleeing places like NYC. Now, Florida is predicted as a potential next hotbed for the virus.
We are in a national state of emergency and several (most?) states have declared states of emergency. Some freedoms are suspended for the greater good. In general, in this nation and at the state level, we have been lax in the mneasures taken to prevent the spread.
Sure but if you suspend the rule of law you open up a can of worms which can have consequences that may not be readily apparent. There’s a reason RI quickly backtracked and changed it to anyone entering from out of state. Just because most of the country was slow to react doesn’t mean that this would even be a useful policy.
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We are in a national state of emergency and several (most?) states have declared states of emergency. Some freedoms are suspended for the greater good. In general, in this nation and at the state level, we have been lax in the mneasures taken to prevent the spread.
Sure but if you suspend the rule of law you open up a can of worms which can have consequences that may not be readily apparent. There’s a reason RI quickly backtracked and changed it to anyone entering from out of state. Just because most of the country was slow to react doesn’t mean that this would even be a useful policy.
@NYGovCuomo
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4m
New York State on PAUSE is extended to April 15.
That means the non-essential workforce is directed to continue to work from home until at least April 15.
We will re-evaluate every two weeks.
As someone that lives here, they kept the beaches open for the people that were already here. That's it. All the major metro areas here adopted shelter in place. People weren't just flying down because they were like Oh Florida is still open. They had to figure out how to treat the people that were already here, decided to stay open because let's be real nobody was just flying home that instant, and issued a closing by the next Friday.
Nobody is blaming NYers, but the way of life there is responsible for the fast spread, any high density city for that matter. People have magnitudes more interaction with different people. People are just pissed about the optics of the situation with Spring Break kids kind of playing it off.
So, it bugs the shit out of me for people to completely ignore common sense, common decency, etc. Even this little thing in our neighborhood bugs me. People on Facebook enter their address in an app. They in turn put a picture of a rainbow in their window. People with the app go on rainbow hunts. It sound innocent enough. But, now you have people, often with young children roaming the neighborhoods for extended periods of time with no purpose other than looking for rainbows. It is just not responsible.
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Facetimed my brother who lives in midtown and has the virus. He's 38 and pretty healthy, so he's not too worried yet. His symptoms are something like:
cough for a few days, fever on and off, foggy head. Last few days his breathing has become labored and he says it feels like someone is sitting on his chest.
My mother is stuck in CT alone, and my brother wants to go up there to help take care of her (I'm in LA). But he's going to have to wait a while to make sure he's symptom free.
My wife and son had it. And. The doctors suspect I did too but my only symptom was a couple days of random bouts of light headedness. But the light headedness was so strong that I nearly fainted a couple times.
My wife had all the symptoms minus the labored breathing. If she had gotten to any point where her breathing was affected while simply just sitting in place, we would have gone to the ER. I’ve posted our whole experience throughout this thread.
Honestly man, if his breathing is truly what your saying he should get the number for their triage and call them to 1. Get their opinion if he should be put on care. 2. Simply to put himself on their radar so they can fast track him to a bed as soon as he tells them he’s coming.
After we spoke with the doctors finally they gave us the Triage information and told us only to call if any of us take a bad turn. And they said once we call them they will set up a time to be seen and fast track our situation from a testing/care stand point. ***One of their key symptoms they told us to use as a bench mark was LABORED breathing.***.
I’m not trying to scare you, but he should be aware that there is a process to this and bed space is limited. Getting in the queue or at the very least on the radar of the health care providers, is paramount in his situation.
I wish him and you and your family the best of luck man. We were lucky enough that we fought it off and everyone has been happy and healthy for days now.
—Side note: My 19 month old son had pink eye when we first went to the doctor's for my wife’s fever and sore throat. Well for those that haven’t seen the latest indicators of Corona Virus that not many people are taking about, pink eye is now a known symptom. Just thought I’d pass that along.
Something went through our family a couple of weeks ago. Throat, sneezing, but no fever or sustained cough. My wife didn't have many symptoms but a few days of uncharacteristic lightheadededness. This is making me wonder about it some more.
These “leaders” that are panicking and lashing out with stupid ideas should be protecting our society but their stupidity and panic is costing people their lives. At what point are the dumb people making dumb statements and dumb policy supported by dumb people going to be held accountable? If we can take away peoples right to drive and move about the country freely, and apparently we can do this, can we also consider an IQ test and a basic biology and statistic test in order to serve in public office and to vote?
Reinfection? Treatments not working? 100,000-200,000 dead? Young/healthy people in ICU? Good grief.
Please please please convince me otherwise.
These “leaders” that are panicking and lashing out with stupid ideas should be protecting our society but their stupidity and panic is costing people their lives. At what point are the dumb people making dumb statements and dumb policy supported by dumb people going to be held accountable? If we can take away peoples right to drive and move about the country freely, and apparently we can do this, can we also consider an IQ test and a basic biology and statistic test in order to serve in public office and to vote?
No lawyer here, but my license to drive is issued by NYS. They didn't issue me a license for free speech and so on is what I meant. Or a license for due process etc. Armchair comparison I know
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These “leaders” that are panicking and lashing out with stupid ideas should be protecting our society but their stupidity and panic is costing people their lives. At what point are the dumb people making dumb statements and dumb policy supported by dumb people going to be held accountable? If we can take away peoples right to drive and move about the country freely, and apparently we can do this, can we also consider an IQ test and a basic biology and statistic test in order to serve in public office and to vote?
I'm sorry but if you are coming from a hot spot, what is wrong with trying to enforce a 14 day quarantine. That is how you contain it. What about the idiot that flew down to Florida that I just posted? Are we infringing on his rights? We are, but sometimes it needs to be done, we infringe on peoples "rights" all the time. It's called living in a society. We aren't just willy nilly allowed to do whatever we want.
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down to Florida. Link - ( New Window )
People like this should be arrested.
This pisses me off especially since I have to fly tomorrow.
Just like when someone from somewhere else brought the first case to NYC. Regardless of people acting badly, this has already passed the point that it can be contained to specific areas. Hell, Alaska is shut down.
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Consider the RI thing, the plan was to hunt down New Yorkers and either lock them up or enforce a quarantine some other way. So, let’s just forget about the rule of law and being a free society and all that (someone posted above that driving and I guess free movement in the country is now a privilege and not a right. Um, really?) Ok, sure maybe they’re carrying the virus because NY is a “hot spot”. So what about people that are from RI but recently in NY? And are the RI militia hunting all New Yorkers? Like if I’m from Oswego, are they coming after me? It’s just so mind boggling stupid. It isn’t being from New York that makes people carriers, any person, no matter where they are from can be infected and carry the virus. And while the RI militia is out hunting New Yorkers, they aren’t doing other things that could actually help. Like maybe building temporary hospitals.
These “leaders” that are panicking and lashing out with stupid ideas should be protecting our society but their stupidity and panic is costing people their lives. At what point are the dumb people making dumb statements and dumb policy supported by dumb people going to be held accountable? If we can take away peoples right to drive and move about the country freely, and apparently we can do this, can we also consider an IQ test and a basic biology and statistic test in order to serve in public office and to vote?
I'm sorry but if you are coming from a hot spot, what is wrong with trying to enforce a 14 day quarantine. That is how you contain it. What about the idiot that flew down to Florida that I just posted? Are we infringing on his rights? We are, but sometimes it needs to be done, we infringe on peoples "rights" all the time. It's called living in a society. We aren't just willy nilly allowed to do whatever we want.
Actually, we are allowed to do what we want unless it violates the rule of law. And there is due process and constitutions (federal and states) which lay all this out.
And answer me this? The guy who flew to Florida, who exactly is he visiting?
Seriously, self quarantine is fine to flatten the curve. There are going to be dumb people who ignore this. But the rule of law needs to be continued and observed. Under all circumstances. And public officials that are ignoring the rule of law and science and data and all the reason based stuff are doing far more harm than some other dumb ass flying with coronavirus.
One last thing, if we’re so worried about people flying around the world and the country with coronavirus, then why haven’t we grounded all non essential air traffic. I asked the same question many weeks ago. Most people carrying the coronavirus don’t know they are carrying the virus. That’s how it has spread so rapidly. So, knowing most people aren’t aware they’re carrying the virus, maybe we should have shut down non essential air traffic by now?
There should be only a few reasons to have to fly anywhere
If my wife was sick and in another state, would get in my car and drive
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If someone tests positive for the virus, exhibits a few symptoms (fever, labored breathing), and after a number of days, the symptoms disappear, is that individual then free of the virus, or do they still have the virus but their immune system is overcoming it? Any information in this regard is appreciated.
If you definitely had it and now the symptoms are gone you are likely good. From everything written you probably can still transmit it to someone else for like 5 days after your symptoms leave. You likely also have your immune system built up so won't catch it again until next year (like the flu).
Thanks for the info. Based on this, it seems that COVID - 19 is not a death sentence for most, but in the event you have the virus (with or without symptoms) your ability to transmit could be a death sentence for others. Only way to know is to be tested after you have had the symptoms. If the test is negative, you can then rejoin society.
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In comment 14853098 Zeke's Alibi said:
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down to Florida. Link - ( New Window )
People like this should be arrested.
This pisses me off especially since I have to fly tomorrow.
Do you HAVE to fly? If it is not life or death you should be skipping it.
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In comment 14853103 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14853098 Zeke's Alibi said:
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down to Florida. Link - ( New Window )
People like this should be arrested.
This pisses me off especially since I have to fly tomorrow.
Do you HAVE to fly? If it is not life or death you should be skipping it.
It’s my job
This isn't going away! It's here the point is to mitigate the spread so healthcare systems don't get overwhelmed. We really need better messaging on this. It's why testing needs to be ramped up and do contact tracing, but honestly I don't know how useful that is if its if you have assholes flying with it. We really need to clamp down on that and make it jailable period, no fine, jailable. Fines just enable people with money to pay their way out.
One last thing, if we’re so worried about people flying around the world and the country with coronavirus, then why haven’t we grounded all non essential air traffic. I asked the same question many weeks ago. Most people carrying the coronavirus don’t know they are carrying the virus. That’s how it has spread so rapidly. So, knowing most people aren’t aware they’re carrying the virus, maybe we should have shut down non essential air traffic by now?
Right its why you have governors trying to implement laws on the cuff because there aren't any in place. I honestly don't think that's unreasonable.
A lot of this bullshit that is coming from our leaders says you need to be smart!
There are waaaay too many fucking idiots out there to have that as policy.
My guess is that it is going to get really bad for us. I think there is a good chance that too many people simply won't take it seriously enough.
This isn't going away! It's here the point is to mitigate the spread so healthcare systems don't get overwhelmed. We really need better messaging on this. It's why testing needs to be ramped up and do contact tracing, but honestly I don't know how useful that is if its if you have assholes flying with it. We really need to clamp down on that and make it jailable period, no fine, jailable. Fines just enable people with money to pay their way out.
I see totalitarianism is alive and well. Thank you citizen Stasi.
Reinfection? Treatments not working? 100,000-200,000 dead? Young/healthy people in ICU? Good grief.
Please please please convince me otherwise.
There's a lot more to worry about before sports.
This isn't going away! It's here the point is to mitigate the spread so healthcare systems don't get overwhelmed. We really need better messaging on this. It's why testing needs to be ramped up and do contact tracing, but honestly I don't know how useful that is if its if you have assholes flying with it. We really need to clamp down on that and make it jailable period, no fine, jailable. Fines just enable people with money to pay their way out.
Funny you bring this up, Russia is implementing pretty much what you are suggesting
Russia's Authoritarian Covid Response - ( New Window )
The ski areas were packed, people in long lines, elbow to elbow until the shut-down happened.
There is no reason for flatlanders to be here now.... its mud season, the most miserable time of year in Northern New England. Both states have "shelter in place" advisories, but we are seeing empty shelves in the grocery stores.
I'm concerned about the spread of the virus from out of staters and about the competition for goods the locals need.... driving locals from store to store looking for TP or whatever and increasing the community spread.
Stay home flatlanders.
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and it blows my mind how many people think this order is about stopping the spread of this virus to go away!
This isn't going away! It's here the point is to mitigate the spread so healthcare systems don't get overwhelmed. We really need better messaging on this. It's why testing needs to be ramped up and do contact tracing, but honestly I don't know how useful that is if its if you have assholes flying with it. We really need to clamp down on that and make it jailable period, no fine, jailable. Fines just enable people with money to pay their way out.
I see totalitarianism is alive and well. Thank you citizen Stasi.
So how would you like to treat that guy? Dude deserves jail, way worse than many people currently in there. He's putting people at risk, knowingly!
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In comment 14853078 trueblueinpw said:
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Actually, we are allowed to do what we want unless it violates the rule of law. And there is due process and constitutions (federal and states) which lay all this out.
And answer me this? The guy who flew to Florida, who exactly is he visiting?
Seriously, self quarantine is fine to flatten the curve. There are going to be dumb people who ignore this. But the rule of law needs to be continued and observed. Under all circumstances. And public officials that are ignoring the rule of law and science and data and all the reason based stuff are doing far more harm than some other dumb ass flying with coronavirus.
One last thing, if we’re so worried about people flying around the world and the country with coronavirus, then why haven’t we grounded all non essential air traffic. I asked the same question many weeks ago. Most people carrying the coronavirus don’t know they are carrying the virus. That’s how it has spread so rapidly. So, knowing most people aren’t aware they’re carrying the virus, maybe we should have shut down non essential air traffic by now?
Right and if you think most rules and laws have good reasons behind them, you are delusional. This is the one instance where it makes sense to clamp down.
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and it blows my mind how many people think this order is about stopping the spread of this virus to go away!
This isn't going away! It's here the point is to mitigate the spread so healthcare systems don't get overwhelmed. We really need better messaging on this. It's why testing needs to be ramped up and do contact tracing, but honestly I don't know how useful that is if its if you have assholes flying with it. We really need to clamp down on that and make it jailable period, no fine, jailable. Fines just enable people with money to pay their way out.
I see totalitarianism is alive and well. Thank you citizen Stasi.
Whats your local grocery store? If I get it maybe I'll go fly there and go touch a bunch of meat and produce. Listen there are waaaaay too many people in jail in this country, but if we aren't jailing people that are directly responsible for the harm of others knowingly, whats the fucking point. Apparently because there's no rules on it I should be able to do what I want.
Yeah a fineable one. How does that stop anyone from doing it, when the odds of getting caught are low? And that is the problem.
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reckless endangerment a crime?
Yeah a fineable one. How does that stop anyone from doing it, when the odds of getting caught are low? And that is the problem.
Is Reckless Endangerment a Misdemeanor or a Felony?
The crime may be charged as a misdemeanor or a felony depending on the specific facts of the case and your state. Typically, when there is a weapon involved, the crime gives rise to a felony charge. The same is true depending on who the victim is. For example, most people are familiar with the charge of reckless endangerment when a child is involved.
Some states may issue a misdemeanor charge when the same behavior under the same set of facts will lead to a felony charge in another state. Regardless, it generally comes down to what the state considers necessary to discourage behavior it deems harmful to the public. Also keep in mind that in some states, even if you are charged with a misdemeanor, the state may impose penalties that are comparable to those imposed for a felony conviction.
Here in AZ:
Endangerment is a Class 1 Misdemeanor in the state of Arizona, carrying a maximum fine of $2,500 and six months in prison. If the negligent actions caused a substantial risk of death, the charge becomes a Class 6 Felony, carrying a maximum prison sentence of two years.
With a big unmentioned if in it, Stop the politics and disinformation. It pollutes.
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In comment 14853248 Bill in UT said:
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reckless endangerment a crime?
Yeah a fineable one. How does that stop anyone from doing it, when the odds of getting caught are low? And that is the problem.
Is Reckless Endangerment a Misdemeanor or a Felony?
The crime may be charged as a misdemeanor or a felony depending on the specific facts of the case and your state. Typically, when there is a weapon involved, the crime gives rise to a felony charge. The same is true depending on who the victim is. For example, most people are familiar with the charge of reckless endangerment when a child is involved.
Some states may issue a misdemeanor charge when the same behavior under the same set of facts will lead to a felony charge in another state. Regardless, it generally comes down to what the state considers necessary to discourage behavior it deems harmful to the public. Also keep in mind that in some states, even if you are charged with a misdemeanor, the state may impose penalties that are comparable to those imposed for a felony conviction.
Here in AZ:
Endangerment is a Class 1 Misdemeanor in the state of Arizona, carrying a maximum fine of $2,500 and six months in prison. If the negligent actions caused a substantial risk of death, the charge becomes a Class 6 Felony, carrying a maximum prison sentence of two years.
So is that guy in Florida facing prison time? Somehow I doubt it, plus he's free on bail even if you do arrest him. Plus there isn't anyway to say that his actions undoubtedly caused any specific deaths, even if someone sitting next to him on the plane where happened to succomb to it. They'd just argue in court they could of easily gotten it a million other ways. Thats why this shit is unprecedented. Theres a 100 ways you can argue out of this in court.
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The head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases predicted 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die and millions more could be infected.
With a big unmentioned if in it, Stop the politics and disinformation. It pollutes.
?? Fauci is political now ?
By the way 100-200k is 0.05% of our population I though McL and Acidtest had this in the multi millions?
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there's no way we're having football or any other sports this season. Maybe not next season either. Not until there's an effective vaccine.
Reinfection? Treatments not working? 100,000-200,000 dead? Young/healthy people in ICU? Good grief.
Please please please convince me otherwise.
There's a lot more to worry about before sports.
Respectfully - Nonsense. And most of us are capable of multi tasking so let’s ease up on the lectures. Sports and entertainment are very important to a lot of people especially in lonely times like these.
Dc gmen - we’ll just have to see how the next 4-6 weeks go. The nba has been all over this since the early days of Wuhan - they have their shit together - and they are still optimistic there will be a playoffs this summer. I think a) if Dr Faucis latest estimates are accurate, or ~0.5% of the population, that would not be a reason to shut down sports and the economy for years.
B) the leagues will certainly hav to up their security - no one with a fever allowed admission, for example. C) the country at large will have to have a firm handle on exactly what % of the population has gained immunity - antibody testing, etc, so we can get comfortable we aren’t causing enormous risks.
And obviously older people and those with existing conditions should be strongly encouraged to sit this year out too
Zeke you can chime in on how the testing is going in the Tampa area. But for the NE Florida area, the Federal testing site is setup in a drive-through layout at Lot J of the parking lot of TIAA Bank Stadium (Jaguars). Start of last week, you had to have a 104 fever, coughing symptom, difficulty breathing and a doctor's recommendation [nevermind the obvious that someone that sick shouldn't be driving and waiting in line for hours in order to get tested]. Yes, the wait was hours often turning people away when the day's available test kits ran out. By Weds., they dropped the fever requirement from 104 to 99.6. Thursday, they dropped the doctor's recommendation. Saturday, they dropped the fever requirment. Today, they closed down the site at 10 AM when they ran out of tests.
It has been a joke. Someone like me has had a dry cough for the past 2 weeks. Only had a fever the first day. I've been self-quarantining out of fear of going to the doctor where others may be sick. I'm on the mend, but the cough is persistent still. I wouldn't mind getting tested just to know. But there is no way, I'm driving 45 minutes to wait in my car for hours only to be turned around when they run out of test kits.
I think in general there are a huge number of persons with Covid-19 that are not known in the statistics. I'm afraid that the public will learn why Florida is often called Heaven's Waiting Room.
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agree. Amount of testing has been a dismal failure so far.
Zeke you can chime in on how the testing is going in the Tampa area. But for the NE Florida area, the Federal testing site is setup in a drive-through layout at Lot J of the parking lot of TIAA Bank Stadium (Jaguars). Start of last week, you had to have a 104 fever, coughing symptom, difficulty breathing and a doctor's recommendation [nevermind the obvious that someone that sick shouldn't be driving and waiting in line for hours in order to get tested]. Yes, the wait was hours often turning people away when the day's available test kits ran out. By Weds., they dropped the fever requirement from 104 to 99.6. Thursday, they dropped the doctor's recommendation. Saturday, they dropped the fever requirment. Today, they closed down the site at 10 AM when they ran out of tests.
It has been a joke. Someone like me has had a dry cough for the past 2 weeks. Only had a fever the first day. I've been self-quarantining out of fear of going to the doctor where others may be sick. I'm on the mend, but the cough is persistent still. I wouldn't mind getting tested just to know. But there is no way, I'm driving 45 minutes to wait in my car for hours only to be turned around when they run out of test kits.
I think in general there are a huge number of persons with Covid-19 that are not known in the statistics. I'm afraid that the public will learn why Florida is often called Heaven's Waiting Room.
Absolutely. You can multiply the official case number by a minimum of 20
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In comment 14853193 charlito said:
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The head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases predicted 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die and millions more could be infected.
With a big unmentioned if in it, Stop the politics and disinformation. It pollutes.
?? Fauci is political now ?
By the way 100-200k is 0.05% of our population I though McL and Acidtest had this in the multi millions?
His big recommendation for going out was to start wearing masks-- not the N95 masks that medical providers need. Surgical masks if you have them, or bandanas even. The point start wearing them now not necessarily because it will prevent you from catching it in the air, but because we as a society have to train ourselves to stop touching our faces which has become a huge method of contagion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YitWZj9QhdQ - ( New Window )
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In comment 14853193 charlito said:
Quote:
The head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases predicted 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die and millions more could be infected.
With a big unmentioned if in it, Stop the politics and disinformation. It pollutes.
?? Fauci is political now ?
By the way 100-200k is 0.05% of our population I though McL and Acidtest had this in the multi millions?
Yeah, how was it poltical? He said that's what could happen if we don't play it right.......he's kinda warning us to take this seriously.
That number is huge despite it only being .05%.
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agree. Amount of testing has been a dismal failure so far.
Zeke you can chime in on how the testing is going in the Tampa area. But for the NE Florida area, the Federal testing site is setup in a drive-through layout at Lot J of the parking lot of TIAA Bank Stadium (Jaguars). Start of last week, you had to have a 104 fever, coughing symptom, difficulty breathing and a doctor's recommendation [nevermind the obvious that someone that sick shouldn't be driving and waiting in line for hours in order to get tested]. Yes, the wait was hours often turning people away when the day's available test kits ran out. By Weds., they dropped the fever requirement from 104 to 99.6. Thursday, they dropped the doctor's recommendation. Saturday, they dropped the fever requirment. Today, they closed down the site at 10 AM when they ran out of tests.
It has been a joke. Someone like me has had a dry cough for the past 2 weeks. Only had a fever the first day. I've been self-quarantining out of fear of going to the doctor where others may be sick. I'm on the mend, but the cough is persistent still. I wouldn't mind getting tested just to know. But there is no way, I'm driving 45 minutes to wait in my car for hours only to be turned around when they run out of test kits.
I think in general there are a huge number of persons with Covid-19 that are not known in the statistics. I'm afraid that the public will learn why Florida is often called Heaven's Waiting Room.
Well actually that is part of the hope, that its spread much, much more widely than known. Which could be a good thing, we'll have a clearer picture of that once the UK finishes antibody testing next week. I'm starting to think that the death rate is closer to that .7 percent.
They were talking about the testing here, its close to a joke. So many stipulations in place, and because they can't keep up. Such a dismal failure on all levels. CDC is portrayed as some super competent organization in entertainment, pretty much got caught with their pants completely down. Contract tracing seems to be the only way an open society like ours can mitigate damage. South Korea knew this, why weren't we prepared. Its a reasonable question, and the excuse making coming from the CDC was gross in the initial stages.
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In comment 14853275 Percy said:
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In comment 14853193 charlito said:
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The head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases predicted 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die and millions more could be infected.
With a big unmentioned if in it, Stop the politics and disinformation. It pollutes.
?? Fauci is political now ?
By the way 100-200k is 0.05% of our population I though McL and Acidtest had this in the multi millions?
Yeah, how was it poltical? He said that's what could happen if we don't play it right.......he's kinda warning us to take this seriously.
That number is huge despite it only being .05%.
McL shouldn't be taken seriously, I quoted him the thread to make sure we were clear, and he claimed ridiculous numbers dead if we didn't enact a Chinese style lockdown after calling me an obtuse idiot. Pretty clear that isn't going to happen now.
Two Tuesdays back I went to Costco at the 8am senior hour. Very long lines that I heard have continued. They had paper goods, but no disinfectant, no potatoes, no chicken. I'm going to bypass senior hour this week and try going at normal opening tomorrow. We've got so many seniors in AZ that I'm thinking it's best to avoid them, lol. Plus they don't mind getting up early. Anyway, I'll report back after. I fortunately have a lot of freezer space, so if it goes well tomorrow I'm probably set for a few weeks.
How is everyone else making out?
Two Tuesdays back I went to Costco at the 8am senior hour. Very long lines that I heard have continued. They had paper goods, but no disinfectant, no potatoes, no chicken. I'm going to bypass senior hour this week and try going at normal opening tomorrow. We've got so many seniors in AZ that I'm thinking it's best to avoid them, lol. Plus they don't mind getting up early. Anyway, I'll report back after. I fortunately have a lot of freezer space, so if it goes well tomorrow I'm probably set for a few weeks.
How is everyone else making out?
I'm about to run out of paper towels and toilet paper, not sure what I'm going to do honestly.
From what I have been able to gather hydrochloroquine is cheap and easy to manufacture. It's been around since the 40's
If it works for a large number of people that can call it anything they want!
Two Tuesdays back I went to Costco at the 8am senior hour. Very long lines that I heard have continued. They had paper goods, but no disinfectant, no potatoes, no chicken. I'm going to bypass senior hour this week and try going at normal opening tomorrow. We've got so many seniors in AZ that I'm thinking it's best to avoid them, lol. Plus they don't mind getting up early. Anyway, I'll report back after. I fortunately have a lot of freezer space, so if it goes well tomorrow I'm probably set for a few weeks.
How is everyone else making out?
The stores by me have caught up to the demand, i just went and got everything i needed
Exposed won't do it. Getting it could. And the odds get better if social distancing and not touching your face before cleansing your hands become general practice.
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In comment 14853285 MetsAreBack said:
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In comment 14853275 Percy said:
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In comment 14853193 charlito said:
Quote:
The head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases predicted 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die and millions more could be infected.
With a big unmentioned if in it, Stop the politics and disinformation. It pollutes.
?? Fauci is political now ?
By the way 100-200k is 0.05% of our population I though McL and Acidtest had this in the multi millions?
Yeah, how was it poltical? He said that's what could happen if we don't play it right.......he's kinda warning us to take this seriously.
That number is huge despite it only being .05%.
McL shouldn't be taken seriously, I quoted him the thread to make sure we were clear, and he claimed ridiculous numbers dead if we didn't enact a Chinese style lockdown after calling me an obtuse idiot. Pretty clear that isn't going to happen now.
200K sounds ridiculous to me........ridiculously disastrous.
The stores by me have caught up to the demand, i just went and got everything i needed
Great. btw, anyone who responds, let us know your location
Respectfully - Nonsense. And most of us are capable of multi tasking so let’s ease up on the lectures. Sports and entertainment are very important to a lot of people especially in lonely times like these.
Dc gmen - we’ll just have to see how the next 4-6 weeks go. The nba has been all over this since the early days of Wuhan - they have their shit together - and they are still optimistic there will be a playoffs this summer. I think a) if Dr Faucis latest estimates are accurate, or ~0.5% of the population, that would not be a reason to shut down sports and the economy for years.
B) the leagues will certainly hav to up their security - no one with a fever allowed admission, for example. C) the country at large will have to have a firm handle on exactly what % of the population has gained immunity - antibody testing, etc, so we can get comfortable we aren’t causing enormous risks.
And obviously older people and those with existing conditions should be strongly encouraged to sit this year out too
The issue is we probably aren't close to hitting peak spread. The longer you keep it down just pushes that day back. As soon as we go back to normal life, its just going to spread uncontrolled again for the most part, especially in massive stadiums full of people. I could def see the playoffs going on with empty stadiums.
Who knows though because we don't have the data, as soon as UK's numbers come in on the antibody testing we'll have a much better idea of who has had this and where we are at in the timeline, and what the mortality numbers even mean. The amount of testing that has taken place has been very targeted in scope, it doesn't give you a good picture of what these numbers even mean. Everyone and their mother thinks they had now in the past month as well now too, but that is to be expected even if it necessarily isn't true.
His big recommendation for going out was to start wearing masks-- not the N95 masks that medical providers need. Surgical masks if you have them, or bandanas even. The point start wearing them now not necessarily because it will prevent you from catching it in the air, but because we as a society have to train ourselves to stop touching our faces which has become a huge method of contagion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YitWZj9QhdQ - ( New Window )
I saw that guy before, and while I agree with him, and its one of the first things you learn at boot camp, why are the only healthy, young people dying of this in the medical profession? I'm sure they know not to touch their face. I'd imagine most doctors preach this.
200K sounds ridiculous to me........ridiculously disastrous.
He was quoting millions without a Wuhan style lock down. 200k is disastrous, so are the 670k that die of heart disease every year, but McDonalds is still open. Of course that number will be down this year as COVID is killing people that have been killing themselves for years, just expediting the process a bit.
Two Tuesdays back I went to Costco at the 8am senior hour. Very long lines that I heard have continued. They had paper goods, but no disinfectant, no potatoes, no chicken. I'm going to bypass senior hour this week and try going at normal opening tomorrow. We've got so many seniors in AZ that I'm thinking it's best to avoid them, lol. Plus they don't mind getting up early. Anyway, I'll report back after. I fortunately have a lot of freezer space, so if it goes well tomorrow I'm probably set for a few weeks.
How is everyone else making out?
Two Tuesdays back I went to Costco at the 8am senior hour. Very long lines that I heard have continued. They had paper goods, but no disinfectant, no potatoes, no chicken. I'm going to bypass senior hour this week and try going at normal opening tomorrow. We've got so many seniors in AZ that I'm thinking it's best to avoid them, lol. Plus they don't mind getting up early. Anyway, I'll report back after. I fortunately have a lot of freezer space, so if it goes well tomorrow I'm probably set for a few weeks.
How is everyone else making out?
Last Thursday afternoon I was down near Costco on Hayden and to my surprise, no line. That day at least I was able to get some chicken, both frozen and canned. Good supply, strict limits though. No TP or paper towels.
Guess you just have to hit it at the right time.
NYC hospitals - healthcare works are stealing PPE evidently
Oh Ny also stealing "generators"
Good question!
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Let’s say it does peak in 2 weeks & we slowly get back to normal in early to mid May. Wouldn’t the cases just blow up again with everyone out & about again?
Good question!
IMO, until we get a vaccination, we are going to be spinning our wheels......unless we really stay in some sort of lockdown.
very slow buikd back, sports with no fans, i am sure there will still br guidlines..
thr hope i guess to with being past thr peak it will be easier to keep it contained and people built up immunity to it as well
2- Corona virus will not stop being a threat until we reach herd immunity, meaning that most of the population has already recovered from the virus and can no longer pass it on. It we continue to social distance/quarantine, that will extend the time period until that takes place. The reason behind doing that is that if every was exposed today and 20% got sick enough to need hospitalization, the hospitals could not handle the load. So we're looking to spread the load over a longer time period, not to ensure that fewer people get infected. With the time we buy, we're hoping to save lives- by having the hospital facilities and staff available, by manufacturing more ventilators, by trying to find drugs that can work against the virus. The downside is that it means shutting down society/the economy for a longer time. So we need to get test kits available, we need to find workable drugs, which we may have already found, and we need to expose more people who have a very low likelihood of dying by sending them back to work, knowing that the few who do develop problems can be taken care of. And we need to keep the geysers out of the way while this all plays out. We're expecting temps in the 80's later this week in AZ, so hopefully some of us warm weather states, including FL and LA will get some relief if Covid-19 reacts like the flu.
2- Corona virus will not stop being a threat until we reach herd immunity, meaning that most of the population has already recovered from the virus and can no longer pass it on. It we continue to social distance/quarantine, that will extend the time period until that takes place. The reason behind doing that is that if every was exposed today and 20% got sick enough to need hospitalization, the hospitals could not handle the load. So we're looking to spread the load over a longer time period, not to ensure that fewer people get infected. With the time we buy, we're hoping to save lives- by having the hospital facilities and staff available, by manufacturing more ventilators, by trying to find drugs that can work against the virus. The downside is that it means shutting down society/the economy for a longer time. So we need to get test kits available, we need to find workable drugs, which we may have already found, and we need to expose more people who have a very low likelihood of dying by sending them back to work, knowing that the few who do develop problems can be taken care of. And we need to keep the geysers out of the way while this all plays out. We're expecting temps in the 80's later this week in AZ, so hopefully some of us warm weather states, including FL and LA will get some relief if Covid-19 reacts like the flu.
Today for the first time we heard from the most informed official channel in the world that this could in fact kill 1m+ people pretty quickly if we don't continue dramatic actions and that 100-200k could be a win - which imo seems to justify anyone having a fair amount of alarm. The official model they promoted today points 10+ consecutive days in april where more people will die each day than on 9/11. If that's not the biggest and most alarming thing we ever go through in our lifetimes I don't know what will be.
Obviously everyone knows there's still a lot of unpredictability with how this all plays out but I for one am pretty thankful to all who have contributed to these threads and brought information over the past couple months (doomsday squad included and probably especially).
2- Corona virus will not stop being a threat until we reach herd immunity, meaning that most of the population has already recovered from the virus and can no longer pass it on. It we continue to social distance/quarantine, that will extend the time period until that takes place. The reason behind doing that is that if every was exposed today and 20% got sick enough to need hospitalization, the hospitals could not handle the load. So we're looking to spread the load over a longer time period, not to ensure that fewer people get infected. With the time we buy, we're hoping to save lives- by having the hospital facilities and staff available, by manufacturing more ventilators, by trying to find drugs that can work against the virus. The downside is that it means shutting down society/the economy for a longer time. So we need to get test kits available, we need to find workable drugs, which we may have already found, and we need to expose more people who have a very low likelihood of dying by sending them back to work, knowing that the few who do develop problems can be taken care of. And we need to keep the geysers out of the way while this all plays out. We're expecting temps in the 80's later this week in AZ, so hopefully some of us warm weather states, including FL and LA will get some relief if Covid-19 reacts like the flu.
I'm not sure I understand where geysers come into play. But with respect to the warm weather, it doesn't seem to have an adverse effect to suppressing Covid-19. It's been in the 90's lately and a steady 80's for the past month. Yet, Miami is the hotspot in Florida. Looking outside of the US, Latin America has been experiencing an increase in deaths.
2. people are mostly contacting each other indoors where the weather isn't a factor
but this is just 1 of an unlimited number of variables nobody really knows yet.
I understand that but the question is how big of an impact the weather has on changing the curve, not that it won't make some positive impact.
LOL!
Today for the first time we heard from the most informed official channel in the world that this could in fact kill 1m+ people pretty quickly if we don't continue dramatic actions and that 100-200k could be a win - which imo seems to justify anyone having a fair amount of alarm. The official model they promoted today points 10+ consecutive days in april where more people will die each day than on 9/11. If that's not the biggest and most alarming thing we ever go through in our lifetimes I don't know what will be.
Obviously everyone knows there's still a lot of unpredictability with how this all plays out but I for one am pretty thankful to all who have contributed to these threads and brought information over the past couple months (doomsday squad included and probably especially).
Thank You...
I said China's number were a lie. We are now starting to get confirmation of that.
I said it spreads faster than what we were being told. I was saying every 2.5 days when we were told 7 to 10 days. I was told I was an idiot who can't do math. Now 2.5 days is the accepted number without social distancing measures.
I said we were on Italy's curve not SKs.
I said this could kill millions in a do nothing worst case scenario. Now experts are saying similar things but still trying to downplay it.
Almost everything I have said has come true already and this is just getting started.
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I'm not sure I understand where geysers come into play. But with respect to the warm weather, it doesn't seem to have an adverse effect to suppressing Covid-19. It's been in the 90's lately and a steady 80's for the past month. Yet, Miami is the hotspot in Florida. Looking outside of the US, Latin America has been experiencing an increase in deaths.
so geezers come into play because they/we are the most at risk, mortality wise. If they can stay indoors while the disease runs it's course through the much less at risk population, it will finally be ok for us to come out of hiding and spend all the money we're sitting on, lol. The longer we extend the curve, the longer the older folks stay at risk, and trust me, I'm getting cranky here in the house.
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Did Old Faithful test positive?
LOL!
I've made amends. See below :)
If you want to minimize the damage to the economy, then cut the period of lockdown to a short as possible. Do I think we should have drones and miltia squads hunting down anybody who breaks shelter in place, of course not. However, we do need to reduce our interactions to the level that China did. But we need to do it voluntarily. I realize this is never going to happen, Americans are too irresponsible. If the economy is going to reopen in a reasonable period of time, we need to do this and get this disease under control. Once the disease is under control, use broad surveillance testing, contact tracing, and quarantine.
Mcl you said you understated Korea’s mortality rate - they have 150 deaths 3 months into this on a population of 51.5 million. You’ve said this thing spreads every 2.5 days, and perhaps that’s right - but it quite obviously means over 3 months even with tracing that their denominator is multiples,
Maybe hundreds of multiples, higher than their 10k official cases.
Everyone at this point knows about 3-5% of their friends and colleagues have this. - which makes sense given how infectious you yourself have said. And that’s people that are open about it. So right there that means 15 million or so have it in this country. But who knows - no country universal tests, so no one has any clue what the mortality rate is.
As far as who is a moron, 100-200k is horrible .... but it is not worth shutting down a country, economy and way of life through July and not having sports or anything fun for years over. they just extended the shutdown basically through April - but I pray we slowly get back to normal in May
If you want to minimize the damage to the economy, then cut the period of lockdown to a short as possible. Do I think we should have drones and miltia squads hunting down anybody who breaks shelter in place, of course not. However, we do need to reduce our interactions to the level that China did. But we need to do it voluntarily. I realize this is never going to happen, Americans are too irresponsible. If the economy is going to reopen in a reasonable period of time, we need to do this and get this disease under control. Once the disease is under control, use broad surveillance testing, contact tracing, and quarantine.
Under control does not mean a few hundred per day. Under control means that the contagion rate goes to under 1. That means that each person with the disease infects fewer than 1 other person. Above 1.0, the disease is climbing, below 1.0, it's decreasing.
and AZ, with its 17
get some relief with the advent of warm weather
That is 100-200k lives BECAUSE you shut the economy down. That’s not either or, that’s keeping the deaths “low” by shutting the economy.
I’m fairly confident in saying if we let this thing just run it’s course and live our lives like we always have, the deaths would be in the millions. Does anyone really disagree with that?
So the question really is
1) 100-200k and shut down the economy. Allow people back to work, when the tests are available that shows who has already been infected (those people go back to work and start the economy partially)
Or
2) try to keep the economy going as is, knowing we will lose several million people through the course of a year the unknown is what impact that WOULD have on the economy of course
Mcl you said you understated Korea’s mortality rate - they have 150 deaths 3 months into this on a population of 51.5 million. You’ve said this thing spreads every 2.5 days, and perhaps that’s right - but it quite obviously means over 3 months even with tracing that their denominator is multiples,
Maybe hundreds of multiples, higher than their 10k official cases.
Everyone at this point knows about 3-5% of their friends and colleagues have this. - which makes sense given how infectious you yourself have said. And that’s people that are open about it. So right there that means 15 million or so have it in this country. But who knows - no country universal tests, so no one has any clue what the mortality rate is.
As far as who is a moron, 100-200k is horrible .... but it is not worth shutting down a country, economy and way of life through July and not having sports or anything fun for years over. they just extended the shutdown basically through April - but I pray we slowly get back to normal in May
I have continually praise SK for how they handled this. And I strongly disagree with yout assessment of how many in SK were infected.
SK acted quickly. They aggressively test and did even more aggressive contact tracing. They were very effective at quarantining people who were infected. They did it very fast before it go out of their control. They brought new infections down to an average of less than 100 per day for weeks. You only get to that level if you only have 200 - 300 spreaders still at large. If you only have 200 - 300 spreaders, then you have found about 97% of those who are infected. So their denominator is not going to change significantly. It can't, if it was any other scenario, the mat says then it would be spreading faster. If orders of magnitude more were infected as you claim, then it would have spread out of control, and their test and quarantine measures would not have made any difference at all. So that claim cannot possibly be true.
On top of that SK has been accused of not providing accurate death numbers, attributing deaths to even mild co-morbidity factors rather than COVID-19. Even with that undercount, their death rate is starting to trend closer to 2%. And as I have said their denominator is not changing significantly.
Also, nowhere near 3-5% of people in the US have been infected yet. If that were the case the shapes of the epidemiological curves would be very different. Plus hospitals would be far more overwhelmed than they are. I doubt we have reached 1% in NY/NJ, let alone 3% nationwide. That is just ludicrous.
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I
I said China's number were a lie. We are now starting to get confirmation of that.
I said it spreads faster than what we were being told. I was saying every 2.5 days when we were told 7 to 10 days. I was told I was an idiot who can't do math. Now 2.5 days is the accepted number without social distancing measures.
I said we were on Italy's curve not SKs.
I said this could kill millions in a do nothing worst case scenario. Now experts are saying similar things but still trying to downplay it.
Almost everything I have said has come true already and this is just getting started.
I think any sensible person not in the MSM knows that China's numbers are a lie. You get minimal points for that.
Italy has about a 10% mortality rate, or in the neighborhood. We are about 1.6%, SK about 1.5. How do you win on that?
In the worst hotspot in the country, NYC, Cuomo has said the rate of increase has gone from 2 days to over 4 days. And why would you even bring up that stat's that would happen without social distancing when we're employing social distancing? I think you may be a little bit full of yourself, with sufficient reason, as far as I can see. If you'd like to bet on your prediction of millions of Americans dead vs my belief in 10% of that number, I'd be happy to take that bet. Not that you couldn't end up being right, but with 2400+ dead as of today, which of your predictions has come true?
Italy’s mortality rate is not 10%. They don’t universal test so they don’t have any clue what the infection and recovery numbers are. Why do people continue to cling to this ratio? It’s just a completely borderline meaningless statistic
That is 100-200k lives BECAUSE you shut the economy down. That’s not either or, that’s keeping the deaths “low” by shutting the economy.
I’m fairly confident in saying if we let this thing just run it’s course and live our lives like we always have, the deaths would be in the millions. Does anyone really disagree with that?
So the question really is
1) 100-200k and shut down the economy. Allow people back to work, when the tests are available that shows who has already been infected (those people go back to work and start the economy partially)
Or
2) try to keep the economy going as is, knowing we will lose several million people through the course of a year the unknown is what impact that WOULD have on the economy of course
Exactly its a false choice. The damage that would be done by the disease ravaging the country and the fear and panic including strikes and whatnot, would be far worse.
I can't get groceries delivered anymore because the union that does went on strike.
That is 100-200k lives BECAUSE you shut the economy down. That’s not either or, that’s keeping the deaths “low” by shutting the economy.
I’m fairly confident in saying if we let this thing just run it’s course and live our lives like we always have, the deaths would be in the millions. Does anyone really disagree with that? Thanks
So the question really is
1) 100-200k and shut down the economy. Allow people back to work, when the tests are available that shows who has already been infected (those people go back to work and start the economy partially)
Or
2) try to keep the economy going as is, knowing we will lose several million people through the course of a year the unknown is what impact that WOULD have on the economy of course
+1. Shutting down the economy through April makes sense. Beyond that I need better data
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There is no right or wrong answer to that debate. But I think that debate gets put out of context.
That is 100-200k lives BECAUSE you shut the economy down. That’s not either or, that’s keeping the deaths “low” by shutting the economy.
I’m fairly confident in saying if we let this thing just run it’s course and live our lives like we always have, the deaths would be in the millions. Does anyone really disagree with that?
So the question really is
1) 100-200k and shut down the economy. Allow people back to work, when the tests are available that shows who has already been infected (those people go back to work and start the economy partially)
Or
2) try to keep the economy going as is, knowing we will lose several million people through the course of a year the unknown is what impact that WOULD have on the economy of course
Exactly its a false choice. The damage that would be done by the disease ravaging the country and the fear and panic including strikes and whatnot, would be far worse.
I can't get groceries delivered anymore because the union that does went on strike.
You’re an economist now too?
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In comment 14853653 Shecky said:
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There is no right or wrong answer to that debate. But I think that debate gets put out of context.
That is 100-200k lives BECAUSE you shut the economy down. That’s not either or, that’s keeping the deaths “low” by shutting the economy.
I’m fairly confident in saying if we let this thing just run it’s course and live our lives like we always have, the deaths would be in the millions. Does anyone really disagree with that?
So the question really is
1) 100-200k and shut down the economy. Allow people back to work, when the tests are available that shows who has already been infected (those people go back to work and start the economy partially)
Or
2) try to keep the economy going as is, knowing we will lose several million people through the course of a year the unknown is what impact that WOULD have on the economy of course
Exactly its a false choice. The damage that would be done by the disease ravaging the country and the fear and panic including strikes and whatnot, would be far worse.
I can't get groceries delivered anymore because the union that does went on strike.
You’re an economist now too?
Well, there is the rub eh...
No, not an economist, but I worked in the financial industry specializing in building software for economic and risk modeling for 30 years. I haven't commented on the economic aspects of this disease because it is such a distant consideration compared to the virus, that I don't care. YOu want to fix the economy, fix the virus first. Can't fix the economy without fixing the cause for the current tank. Just common sense.
So now you are really out of your depth.
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In comment 14853623 .McL. said:
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I
I said China's number were a lie. We are now starting to get confirmation of that.
I said it spreads faster than what we were being told. I was saying every 2.5 days when we were told 7 to 10 days. I was told I was an idiot who can't do math. Now 2.5 days is the accepted number without social distancing measures.
I said we were on Italy's curve not SKs.
I said this could kill millions in a do nothing worst case scenario. Now experts are saying similar things but still trying to downplay it.
Almost everything I have said has come true already and this is just getting started.
I think any sensible person not in the MSM knows that China's numbers are a lie. You get minimal points for that.
Italy has about a 10% mortality rate, or in the neighborhood. We are about 1.6%, SK about 1.5. How do you win on that?
In the worst hotspot in the country, NYC, Cuomo has said the rate of increase has gone from 2 days to over 4 days. And why would you even bring up that stat's that would happen without social distancing when we're employing social distancing? I think you may be a little bit full of yourself, with sufficient reason, as far as I can see. If you'd like to bet on your prediction of millions of Americans dead vs my belief in 10% of that number, I'd be happy to take that bet. Not that you couldn't end up being right, but with 2400+ dead as of today, which of your predictions has come true?
Italy’s mortality rate is not 10%. They don’t universal test so they don’t have any clue what the infection and recovery numbers are. Why do people continue to cling to this ratio? It’s just a completely borderline meaningless statistic
People cling to that stat because it's the one in use- Mortality is 11%, 10779 deaths with 97,689 cases. The number is wrong because they don't have universal testing? Neither do we, last I heard, so our number is wrong too
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In comment 14853653 Shecky said:
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There is no right or wrong answer to that debate. But I think that debate gets put out of context.
That is 100-200k lives BECAUSE you shut the economy down. That’s not either or, that’s keeping the deaths “low” by shutting the economy.
I’m fairly confident in saying if we let this thing just run it’s course and live our lives like we always have, the deaths would be in the millions. Does anyone really disagree with that?
So the question really is
1) 100-200k and shut down the economy. Allow people back to work, when the tests are available that shows who has already been infected (those people go back to work and start the economy partially)
Or
2) try to keep the economy going as is, knowing we will lose several million people through the course of a year the unknown is what impact that WOULD have on the economy of course
Exactly its a false choice. The damage that would be done by the disease ravaging the country and the fear and panic including strikes and whatnot, would be far worse.
I can't get groceries delivered anymore because the union that does went on strike.
You’re an economist now too?
No, but he did sleep in a Holiday Inn last night
What qualifications do you?
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In comment 14853660 .McL. said:
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In comment 14853653 Shecky said:
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There is no right or wrong answer to that debate. But I think that debate gets put out of context.
That is 100-200k lives BECAUSE you shut the economy down. That’s not either or, that’s keeping the deaths “low” by shutting the economy.
I’m fairly confident in saying if we let this thing just run it’s course and live our lives like we always have, the deaths would be in the millions. Does anyone really disagree with that?
So the question really is
1) 100-200k and shut down the economy. Allow people back to work, when the tests are available that shows who has already been infected (those people go back to work and start the economy partially)
Or
2) try to keep the economy going as is, knowing we will lose several million people through the course of a year the unknown is what impact that WOULD have on the economy of course
Exactly its a false choice. The damage that would be done by the disease ravaging the country and the fear and panic including strikes and whatnot, would be far worse.
I can't get groceries delivered anymore because the union that does went on strike.
You’re an economist now too?
Well, there is the rub eh...
No, not an economist, but I worked in the financial industry specializing in building software for economic and risk modeling for 30 years. I haven't commented on the economic aspects of this disease because it is such a distant consideration compared to the virus, that I don't care. YOu want to fix the economy, fix the virus first. Can't fix the economy without fixing the cause for the current tank. Just common sense.
So now you are really out of your depth.
Oh I’m out of my depth? I work in the financial industry currently,
Sounds like based on this supercilious post you were laid off.
The scary stat. Is of those who HAVE been diagnosed in the US. About 5,200 were diagnosed at one time and have completed the cycle.
2,700 have fully recovered
2,500 have died
That, is frightening.
The scary stat. Is of those who HAVE been diagnosed in the US. About 5,200 were diagnosed at one time and have completed the cycle.
2,700 have fully recovered
2,500 have died
That, is frightening.
They are only testing high risk cases. Testing in this country remains a joke. We still can’t get our nanny tested despite fever and all the symptoms because she isn’t old enough
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Also, nowhere near 3-5% of people in the US have been infected yet. If that were the case the shapes of the epidemiological curves would be very different. Plus hospitals would be far more overwhelmed than they are. I doubt we have reached 1% in NY/NJ, let alone 3% nationwide. That is just ludicrous.
You said this thing doubled every 2.5 days and patted yourself on the back for that prediction. You no longer believe it?
second any person that dies with a positive covid test counts in the numbers even if that person had an underlying issue that would have killed them in the near future..
We have no idea the tru numbers so anyonr acting like they do one way or another is completely bsing..Nobody can predict this, i dont care what models you use, you have no idea what is going to happen..
People acting like they do and their word is gospel needs to stop, stop preaching to people like you have all the answers..
Whether you throw out doomsday numbers or the most optimistic number you are wrong..
One thing seems certain though,
The virus is in control.
The scary stat. Is of those who HAVE been diagnosed in the US. About 5,200 were diagnosed at one time and have completed the cycle.
2,700 have fully recovered
2,500 have died
That, is frightening.
Agreed Shecky - that and the second 1000 deaths coming in 2 days. I'm still hoping there's some way this trend doesn't continue this week because it's just beyond bleak to think we are going to be hitting 1k deaths per day before next weekend.
Also completely agree with your other post, once we got to February there were only bad and very bad options to choose from. Even if we had a time machine to go back to January, there would have been better options but no good options. Japan acted quickly and still cancelled the Olympics. The global economy was going to be impacted once China shut down (especially since it forebode that many other countries were likely to also get impacted).
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In comment 14853640 MetsAreBack said:
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Also, nowhere near 3-5% of people in the US have been infected yet. If that were the case the shapes of the epidemiological curves would be very different. Plus hospitals would be far more overwhelmed than they are. I doubt we have reached 1% in NY/NJ, let alone 3% nationwide. That is just ludicrous.
You said this thing doubled every 2.5 days and patted yourself on the back for that prediction. You no longer believe it?
What? I said it doubles every 2.5 days if no social distancing is done. That has proven to be an accurate number. The tighter the social distancing, the slower that rate is, tight enough and you can stop the virus.
And I know a lot of people who work in the financial industry that would have 0 qualifications to analyze this. I detailed what I used to do, how about you. ANd for your information, I am a founder in a well funded startup that is doing quite well right now. VC's have been willing to invest millions in my ideas! How about you?
Hear, not here...
Link - ( New Window )
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Lets here yours...
Hear, not here...
I spell pretty well.
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In comment 14853654 .McL. said:
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In comment 14853640 MetsAreBack said:
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Also, nowhere near 3-5% of people in the US have been infected yet. If that were the case the shapes of the epidemiological curves would be very different. Plus hospitals would be far more overwhelmed than they are. I doubt we have reached 1% in NY/NJ, let alone 3% nationwide. That is just ludicrous.
You said this thing doubled every 2.5 days and patted yourself on the back for that prediction. You no longer believe it?
What? I said it doubles every 2.5 days if no social distancing is done. That has proven to be an accurate number. The tighter the social distancing, the slower that rate is, tight enough and you can stop the virus.
And I know a lot of people who work in the financial industry that would have 0 qualifications to analyze this. I detailed what I used to do, how about you. ANd for your information, I am a founder in a well funded startup that is doing quite well right now. VC's have been willing to invest millions in my ideas! How about you?
Happy for you. Let us know when they actually fund. Not interested in a pissing match. Your models are deeply flawed,
Based on clueless infection rates ... and you are way too interested in having this football website appreciate you to have real life success.
That’s my take but maybe you’re right and this the end of the world. Hope your mom hasn’t blown her brains out yet.
Best.
We haven’t heard your qualifications. We’ve heard that VC funds took your call and nothing happened
Can only imagine what the peak average will be in about 2 or 3 weeks. 5k a day at peak? More??
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In comment 14853700 MetsAreBack said:
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In comment 14853654 .McL. said:
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In comment 14853640 MetsAreBack said:
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Also, nowhere near 3-5% of people in the US have been infected yet. If that were the case the shapes of the epidemiological curves would be very different. Plus hospitals would be far more overwhelmed than they are. I doubt we have reached 1% in NY/NJ, let alone 3% nationwide. That is just ludicrous.
You said this thing doubled every 2.5 days and patted yourself on the back for that prediction. You no longer believe it?
What? I said it doubles every 2.5 days if no social distancing is done. That has proven to be an accurate number. The tighter the social distancing, the slower that rate is, tight enough and you can stop the virus.
And I know a lot of people who work in the financial industry that would have 0 qualifications to analyze this. I detailed what I used to do, how about you. ANd for your information, I am a founder in a well funded startup that is doing quite well right now. VC's have been willing to invest millions in my ideas! How about you?
Happy for you. Let us know when they actually fund. Not interested in a pissing match. Your models are deeply flawed,
Based on clueless infection rates ... and you are way too interested in having this football website appreciate you to have real life success.
That’s my take but maybe you’re right and this the end of the world. Hope your mom hasn’t blown her brains out yet.
Best.
When they fund... They already did, we have even gotten a second round from them recently. I and could not give a damn if people here appreciate my success or not.
And of course you still haven't shared your qualifications saying you don't want to get into a pissing match. A pissing match you started I might add because you are more than willing to question my qualifications...
Can only imagine what the peak average will be in about 2 or 3 weeks. 5k a day at peak? More??
This projects a peak around 2300 on April 14th with similar daily totals a few days prior and a few days after. The range of the projections each of those days is 1100-4700.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
well, son of a gun. Who would have imagined? Funny that doctors are hoarding the drug for themselves if it doesn't work. Are they expecting to get malaria?
She's still here!
It's on full display there.
You have sunk to new lows.
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In comment 14853700 MetsAreBack said:
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In comment 14853654 .McL. said:
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In comment 14853640 MetsAreBack said:
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Also, nowhere near 3-5% of people in the US have been infected yet. If that were the case the shapes of the epidemiological curves would be very different. Plus hospitals would be far more overwhelmed than they are. I doubt we have reached 1% in NY/NJ, let alone 3% nationwide. That is just ludicrous.
You said this thing doubled every 2.5 days and patted yourself on the back for that prediction. You no longer believe it?
What? I said it doubles every 2.5 days if no social distancing is done. That has proven to be an accurate number. The tighter the social distancing, the slower that rate is, tight enough and you can stop the virus.
And I know a lot of people who work in the financial industry that would have 0 qualifications to analyze this. I detailed what I used to do, how about you. ANd for your information, I am a founder in a well funded startup that is doing quite well right now. VC's have been willing to invest millions in my ideas! How about you?
Happy for you. Let us know when they actually fund. Not interested in a pissing match. Your models are deeply flawed,
Based on clueless infection rates ... and you are way too interested in having this football website appreciate you to have real life success.
That’s my take but maybe you’re right and this the end of the world. Hope your mom hasn’t blown her brains out yet.
Best.
Come on man, why would you say anything like that over a discussion of the Coronavirus...That's just warped fucked-up shit. Take a damn break from the thread if it makes you post crap like that
Well teens and adults make up about 80% of the population so..........
Did the CCP lie? - ( New Window )
Regarding the doubling rate. I said it was 2.5 days [b]WITH NO SOCIAL DISTANCING[\b] when people were screaming it was 7 to 10 days. Of course I know it changes with social distancing, otherwise I wouldn't have been calling for strict social distancing to stop and reverse that number.
Regarding the R0 value. You are misunderstanding what I have been saying. Yes the R0 has to be turned down to sub 1. You only get there with strict social distancing. But getting to R0 to sub 1 isn't enough... It has to stay there long enough that you only have a few hundred new infections per day. I don't know what the exact number would be, but it has to be low enough that we can find positives with broad surveillance testing, do contact tracing, and quarantine all positives we find... Aggressive testing, and quarantining can also keep the R0 down. That is what I mean by "under control". Under control means a point where SK's model can be effective.
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But that release today says it will be given to “teens and adults”. Call me skeptical, but why are they giving it to those who we’ve heard the last two months “it’s not a risk to”. As opposed tobe most at risk population? Like I said, call me a skeptic but I presume they will then tout that 90% of those using the drugs are fine a week or two later.
Well teens and adults make up about 80% of the population so..........
I get that, but shouldn’t you use the most promising treatment on those most vulnerable or at risk?
I mean if I gave vitamin C to teenagers and claimed it prevented heart attacks, I bet you it would be “proven” to be quite affective after a month or two, no?
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So far, the two best predictive indicators of the death count point to 20k deaths a week from today. If that’s true, that’s an average of 1,500 PER DAY for the next week.
Can only imagine what the peak average will be in about 2 or 3 weeks. 5k a day at peak? More??
This projects a peak around 2300 on April 14th with similar daily totals a few days prior and a few days after. The range of the projections each of those days is 1100-4700. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
Interesting link and projections. OT sure if they only do short term projections or not. But found it interesting that the last death in NY ends at May 10. I’m assuming it’s not meant to project long term? Just curious to understand it, but pretty interesting projections nonetheless.
Did the CCP lie? - ( New Window )
And the scale of the lies are starting to come into line with the information I have from people on the ground in China.
Did the CCP lie? - ( New Window )
There is no doubt that China is fudging the numbers. So is Indian and Pakistan also. Both countries are the perfect storm for this Virus.
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but the CCP might have lied about the true number of cases. The UK thinks so, they also are reconsidering their relationship with China going forward. They think communist government is still not acting in good faith and leveraging the current suffering of the world to their own advantage. According to this article anyway.
Did the CCP lie? - ( New Window )
There is no doubt that China is fudging the numbers. So is Indian and Pakistan also. Both countries are the perfect storm for this Virus.
India and Pakistan may be fudging numbers....
If you have ever been to these countries (I have been to both), then you know the state in which large swaths of the population live. I tend to believe that they are incapable of measuring the spread, or doing much of anything to stop it or slow it down. I think they don't know any better, and are incapable of knowing better.
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In comment 14853739 Shecky said:
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So far, the two best predictive indicators of the death count point to 20k deaths a week from today. If that’s true, that’s an average of 1,500 PER DAY for the next week.
Can only imagine what the peak average will be in about 2 or 3 weeks. 5k a day at peak? More??
This projects a peak around 2300 on April 14th with similar daily totals a few days prior and a few days after. The range of the projections each of those days is 1100-4700. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
Interesting link and projections. OT sure if they only do short term projections or not. But found it interesting that the last death in NY ends at May 10. I’m assuming it’s not meant to project long term? Just curious to understand it, but pretty interesting projections nonetheless.
There’s an entire paper on the model but I got like 4 pages in and quit. My guess is that it’s just a model of this first wave since all the numbers are specifically through August.
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In comment 14853744 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 14853739 Shecky said:
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So far, the two best predictive indicators of the death count point to 20k deaths a week from today. If that’s true, that’s an average of 1,500 PER DAY for the next week.
Can only imagine what the peak average will be in about 2 or 3 weeks. 5k a day at peak? More??
This projects a peak around 2300 on April 14th with similar daily totals a few days prior and a few days after. The range of the projections each of those days is 1100-4700. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
Interesting link and projections. OT sure if they only do short term projections or not. But found it interesting that the last death in NY ends at May 10. I’m assuming it’s not meant to project long term? Just curious to understand it, but pretty interesting projections nonetheless.
There’s an entire paper on the model but I got like 4 pages in and quit. My guess is that it’s just a model of this first wave since all the numbers are specifically through August.
Het Eric, I commented on your post about that model. It is a curve fitting model based on the first wave. They say as much in the paper. That didn’t make it bad, just uncertain. It is also different from the more structural models that build predictions based on parameters such as infection rates and virulence. In the model you cited they assume some statistical distributions and ask which parameters fit those and project forward.
Many of these models make dire predictions, which we hope are avoided with intervention. Fauci’s estimates of 100-200k dead is not one of these worst case scenarios. That is a best realistic guess based on how the worst case scenario might be reduced by interventions being taken right now. It could be better or much worse depending on how we act.
I have been on here for weeks now saying what the scientists have been saying. This was never a normal situation or a glorified flu. China reduced the R0 of this virus from above 3 to about 0.5. That took extreme measures including a ban on domestic travel, which we are not able to do. So it is up in the air as to whether we can reduce R0 the way they did. That means it will be worse here and persist longer. It is already worse here.
So get over it, stay inside, and worry about lifting measures when the virus is under control. Get serious.
The problem with the economy is the virus and the solution is confronting it.
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In comment 14853759 rocco8112 said:
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but the CCP might have lied about the true number of cases. The UK thinks so, they also are reconsidering their relationship with China going forward. They think communist government is still not acting in good faith and leveraging the current suffering of the world to their own advantage. According to this article anyway.
Did the CCP lie? - ( New Window )
There is no doubt that China is fudging the numbers. So is Indian and Pakistan also. Both countries are the perfect storm for this Virus.
India and Pakistan may be fudging numbers....
If you have ever been to these countries (I have been to both), then you know the state in which large swaths of the population live. I tend to believe that they are incapable of measuring the spread, or doing much of anything to stop it or slow it down. I think they don't know any better, and are incapable of knowing better.
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In comment 14853762 Shecky said:
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In comment 14853744 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 14853739 Shecky said:
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So far, the two best predictive indicators of the death count point to 20k deaths a week from today. If that’s true, that’s an average of 1,500 PER DAY for the next week.
Can only imagine what the peak average will be in about 2 or 3 weeks. 5k a day at peak? More??
This projects a peak around 2300 on April 14th with similar daily totals a few days prior and a few days after. The range of the projections each of those days is 1100-4700. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
Interesting link and projections. OT sure if they only do short term projections or not. But found it interesting that the last death in NY ends at May 10. I’m assuming it’s not meant to project long term? Just curious to understand it, but pretty interesting projections nonetheless.
There’s an entire paper on the model but I got like 4 pages in and quit. My guess is that it’s just a model of this first wave since all the numbers are specifically through August.
Het Eric, I commented on your post about that model. It is a curve fitting model based on the first wave. They say as much in the paper. That didn’t make it bad, just uncertain. It is also different from the more structural models that build predictions based on parameters such as infection rates and virulence. In the model you cited they assume some statistical distributions and ask which parameters fit those and project forward.
Many of these models make dire predictions, which we hope are avoided with intervention. Fauci’s estimates of 100-200k dead is not one of these worst case scenarios. That is a best realistic guess based on how the worst case scenario might be reduced by interventions being taken right now. It could be better or much worse depending on how we act.
I have been on here for weeks now saying what the scientists have been saying. This was never a normal situation or a glorified flu. China reduced the R0 of this virus from above 3 to about 0.5. That took extreme measures including a ban on domestic travel, which we are not able to do. So it is up in the air as to whether we can reduce R0 the way they did. That means it will be worse here and persist longer. It is already worse here.
So get over it, stay inside, and worry about lifting measures when the virus is under control. Get serious.
The problem with the economy is the virus and the solution is confronting it.
+1
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In comment 14853765 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14853759 rocco8112 said:
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but the CCP might have lied about the true number of cases. The UK thinks so, they also are reconsidering their relationship with China going forward. They think communist government is still not acting in good faith and leveraging the current suffering of the world to their own advantage. According to this article anyway.
Did the CCP lie? - ( New Window )
There is no doubt that China is fudging the numbers. So is Indian and Pakistan also. Both countries are the perfect storm for this Virus.
India and Pakistan may be fudging numbers....
If you have ever been to these countries (I have been to both), then you know the state in which large swaths of the population live. I tend to believe that they are incapable of measuring the spread, or doing much of anything to stop it or slow it down. I think they don't know any better, and are incapable of knowing better.
It will be a human disaster when it's over and done with in those countries. You also have Russia which is not forthcoming of their numbers either
Agreed 100%...
We may never know the scale of the disaster in many places around the world.
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agree. Amount of testing has been a dismal failure so far.
Zeke you can chime in on how the testing is going in the Tampa area. But for the NE Florida area, the Federal testing site is setup in a drive-through layout at Lot J of the parking lot of TIAA Bank Stadium (Jaguars). Start of last week, you had to have a 104 fever, coughing symptom, difficulty breathing and a doctor's recommendation [nevermind the obvious that someone that sick shouldn't be driving and waiting in line for hours in order to get tested]. Yes, the wait was hours often turning people away when the day's available test kits ran out. By Weds., they dropped the fever requirement from 104 to 99.6. Thursday, they dropped the doctor's recommendation. Saturday, they dropped the fever requirment. Today, they closed down the site at 10 AM when they ran out of tests.
It has been a joke. Someone like me has had a dry cough for the past 2 weeks. Only had a fever the first day. I've been self-quarantining out of fear of going to the doctor where others may be sick. I'm on the mend, but the cough is persistent still. I wouldn't mind getting tested just to know. But there is no way, I'm driving 45 minutes to wait in my car for hours only to be turned around when they run out of test kits.
I think in general there are a huge number of persons with Covid-19 that are not known in the statistics. I'm afraid that the public will learn why Florida is often called Heaven's Waiting Room.
To follow-up on the Federal Testing Site at Lot J - They don't open until 9 AM. Apparently, they only have 200 tests per day. At 6:30 AM, they are already closing the site as they have 200 cars waiting in line. The Federal Testing is a joke. It is almost a concerted effort to restrict the number of tests in order to not see the numbers climb. I know that sounds a bit tin-foil theory. But the cynic in me believes that they don't want to know the truth - a sort of Baghdad Bob in play.
Not so great for those talking about their qualifications, having "people on the ground in China" and development of their own predictive models.
But every early morning, we get a rehash of successive posts bringing the discussion down. That's a key contribution here. (eyeroll)...
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Could you share the quote where Fauci said 100-200k was best case scenario? I can’t find that quote.
Fauci did not say that was a best case scenario, he said it was on the low end of the models. "The scientific models" also predict that the world will end from climate change in 10 years.
I have yet to see a valid model that shows the world ending from climate change in 10 years. Link?
I cannot imagine being here one minute and gone the next like that.
That's not yet available to anyone. And may never be with good enough a confidence interval.
Garbage in and Garbage out is an enduring truism that always applies
The assumptions you use, not the method you use, gives most of the answer is the second enduring truism
That's why all the assumptions and confidence intervals and caveats about the validity of the data have to be clearly labeled to be considered in any scientific journal or university.
For example, Fauci has a predictive model that has a low end of 200K deaths and a high of 2.2 million deaths. Or more under some other assumptions... so a 10X variation in possible outcomes. Or more.
Right now, some of these models are like the guy who spends time sculpting the whip cream on your Sundae - while forgetting that the ice-cream underneath is warm with fuzzy flecks of green and blue and way passed its sell by date
All hat no cattle.
Right now, no one has good enough answers so all one controls is adherence to common sense self protection and the degree of calmness and kindness one gives to others.
imo
Condolences to you and your wife. May her shared memory give you comfort now and in the future. Was there any indication that she wasn't feeling well in the group chat? Or was it that rapid her onset of symptoms from 5PM to 9PM?
The virus is in control.
No it's not.
In fact, it's anything but "unchartered waters."
The Swine flu epidemic of 1918 counted a death toll of 1-3% of the population of the entire planet. And if you want to shrug that off as ancient history (it really isn't) just consider the H1N1 bird flu of 2009, just over a decade ago.
Similar to Covid-19 these epidemics consisted of the "jumping" of an animal strain of virus into the ability to attack the human genome, what is known as a "novel virus."
And there are lots of other examples I'm sure, I just picked the two most obvious by dint of size and recent past.
But don't let ignorance stop you from making bold sweeping statements.
From last year's CDC synopsis of the 2009 pandemic:
Interestingly, H1N1 caused deaths in many more young and prime working age adults compared with Covid-19, which is heavily tilted towards killing the already infirm and elderly.
I'm sorry to hear the details that supports how fast/deadly this virus is.
Not going to bother comparing it to something that happened any earlier.
To follow-up on the Federal Testing Site at Lot J - They don't open until 9 AM. Apparently, they only have 200 tests per day. At 6:30 AM, they are already closing the site as they have 200 cars waiting in line. The Federal Testing is a joke. It is almost a concerted effort to restrict the number of tests in order to not see the numbers climb. I know that sounds a bit tin-foil theory. But the cynic in me believes that they don't want to know the truth - a sort of Baghdad Bob in play.
I don't think it's that tin-foily. Weren't the reports in the very beginning of a decision to keep people on the Diamond Princess cruise ships so as to keep the numbers of positive tests down (back when it was only 15 positive tests)?
There has been a suppression of testing for nearly two months now.
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waters for the planet...
The virus is in control.
No it's not.
In fact, it's anything but "unchartered waters."
Lou, the prevailing unchartedness is the potential mortality rate.
The 2009 H1N1 had a very sad, but very predictable .02 rate in the US as your numbers state.
The leading indicators from China, Italy, and NY conservatively estimate multiples of that. What’s that rate? Who knows at this point.
Old folks (60 plus?) are ordered not to leave home at all and have to have needed products delivered to them at home.
Today Israel reports > 4,347 cases and recently their 16 death.
Israel confirms 16th fatality due to coronavirus; cases rise to 4,347...
Some 80 Israelis were in serious condition due to the disease
Israel's Health Ministry announced on Monday updated figures on patients infected with the coronavirus, raising the tally to at least 4,347 cases.
The ministry later announced shortly past noon that the country suffered its 16th fatality. A 58-year-old man with “very significant existing conditions” died after being admitted to Yitzhak Shamir Medical Center in central Israel late Sunday.
The identity of the man has not been released, but the hospital said that the man is the youngest person to die from the coronavirus in the country so far.
Some 80 Israelis were in serious condition, including a man in his 20s hospitalized at Samson Assuta Ashdod University Hospital.
Article linked below.
Israeli Covid-19 update - ( New Window )
I've been away from this thread because it became pedantic, not sure if this is new or not.
link - ( New Window )
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To follow-up on the Federal Testing Site at Lot J - They don't open until 9 AM. Apparently, they only have 200 tests per day. At 6:30 AM, they are already closing the site as they have 200 cars waiting in line. The Federal Testing is a joke. It is almost a concerted effort to restrict the number of tests in order to not see the numbers climb. I know that sounds a bit tin-foil theory. But the cynic in me believes that they don't want to know the truth - a sort of Baghdad Bob in play.
I don't think it's that tin-foily. Weren't the reports in the very beginning of a decision to keep people on the Diamond Princess cruise ships so as to keep the numbers of positive tests down (back when it was only 15 positive tests)?
There has been a suppression of testing for nearly two months now.
You are correct regarding the cruise ship. Can't say the exact quote, but it was stated at the time that by keeping the passengers on board that the numbers for that state wouldn't reflect the additional cases.
I was just relaying updated testing information for the Federal Test site here in Jax. 200 tests/day is a joke especially since it has been 2 weeks since the message was conveyed to the public that anyone that wants a test can get one.
Side-note: The Holland America cruise ship with 100+ sick individuals and 4 dead passengers was given clearance to pass through the Panama Canal. They will be heading to Florida.
And the Israeli data to date supports that Covid-19 almost exclusively kills the elderly and infirm.
Both my teenage daughters are working in restaurants preparing meals for delivery.
The apples didn't fall too far from the tree.
Old folks (60 plus?) are ordered not to leave home at all and have to have needed products delivered to them at home.
Today Israel reports > 4,347 cases and recently their 16 death.
Quote:
Israel confirms 16th fatality due to coronavirus; cases rise to 4,347...
Some 80 Israelis were in serious condition due to the disease
Israel's Health Ministry announced on Monday updated figures on patients infected with the coronavirus, raising the tally to at least 4,347 cases.
The ministry later announced shortly past noon that the country suffered its 16th fatality. A 58-year-old man with “very significant existing conditions” died after being admitted to Yitzhak Shamir Medical Center in central Israel late Sunday.
The identity of the man has not been released, but the hospital said that the man is the youngest person to die from the coronavirus in the country so far.
Some 80 Israelis were in serious condition, including a man in his 20s hospitalized at Samson Assuta Ashdod University Hospital.
Article linked below.
Israeli Covid-19 update - ( New Window )
Hi Lou - agreed Israel seems to be handling the situation as well as possible .... but why is their data good? Have they tested the entire population for the virus and for immunity/antibodies? Seems that every country has selection bias In that older people and people showing more serious symptoms are the ones being tested.
Bill2 put it very very well above (per usual)
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In comment 14853640 MetsAreBack said:
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Could you share the quote where Fauci said 100-200k was best case scenario? I can’t find that quote.
Fauci did not say that was a best case scenario, he said it was on the low end of the models. "The scientific models" also predict that the world will end from climate change in 10 years.
I have yet to see a valid model that shows the world ending from climate change in 10 years. Link?
Go to GretchenThunberg.com Look under Hyperbole :)
We haven't had complaints about this thread for days until last night.
Those of you who can't help yourselves please, please stop. We really don't want to suspend long time posters, but we will if you continue to post comments that we have expressly indicated are off limits.
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waters for the planet...
The virus is in control.
No it's not.
In fact, it's anything but "unchartered waters."
The Swine flu epidemic of 1918 counted a death toll of 1-3% of the population of the entire planet. And if you want to shrug that off as ancient history (it really isn't) just consider the H1N1 bird flu of 2009, just over a decade ago.
Similar to Covid-19 these epidemics consisted of the "jumping" of an animal strain of virus into the ability to attack the human genome, what is known as a "novel virus."
And there are lots of other examples I'm sure, I just picked the two most obvious by dint of size and recent past.
But don't let ignorance stop you from making bold sweeping statements.
From last year's CDC synopsis of the 2009 pandemic:
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From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.Jun 11, 2019
Interestingly, H1N1 caused deaths in many more young and prime working age adults compared with Covid-19, which is heavily tilted towards killing the already infirm and elderly.
1918 yes, but that was quite some time ago, the world is quite different today. So, unless you are over a century old, no one alive has any frame of reference for this. Not the leaders, not the doctors, not the custodians, not the short order cooks, the teachers, the cab drivers, pro athletes, pharmacists, anyone. That to me is the definition of uncharted waters. 1918, for all intents and purposes, is ancient history to today.
2009 Swine flu was a pandemic. I was alive for that one as many of us were. I would never want to discount those that passed or other horrors wrought by it.
I must have been napping when the Swine Flu caused shut downs of various degrees for millions of people, triage of medical equipment in hard hit Italy, massive damage to the economy, largest federal financial support bill in US history, federal reserve printing money like it was Monopoly money to keep things afloat, majority of students on Earth not going to school, sending of US hospital ships to NYC and LA, building of field hospitals by the US Army, NYC 911 service at overwhelming levels of calls for three days, 700 NYPD confirmed 12.4% out sick, shutting of all restaurants and bars in areas for unknown amounts of time, states checking plates at border stopping entry, cancelling of all sports, spring break beaches closed, no one is flying airlines on brink of financial collapse, postponement of some primary elections, infections on US military facilities and ships that can't be announced due to national security, mobile fridge trucks and other increases in morgue capacity for NY city, field hospital being built in Central Park, mass clincial trials and vaccine development all over the world, repurposing of US industry to build medical equipment and supplies, all this from the top of my head and this thing is no where near done. There are also hundreds dead in the city already, the Swine flu numbers are from the end of it.
I think it is fair to say based on the evidence that this current Pandemic is a different bird than 2009.
All of these events are being driven by Coronavirus. All these different impacts and possible future changes. That is why I say the virus is in control, I do not mean it is the end of civilization, but it is a major world wide problem that is stress testing and impacting societies all over the world. It is the driving force.
Right now there is no clear end in sight. I may be ignorant and stupid, but I do think the argument that this is a historical event with long term impacts beyond the deaths it will cause is sound and backed by facts.
What is causing it, the virus. It is in control.
I get it for essential travel — aid workers, folks involved with the fight etc — but nothing’s stopping me and my kids from hopping on a plane for a vacation and potentially being Typhoid Marys. It seems like a giant gap in the emergency response. Maybe that’s why a lot of folks really aren’t taking it seriously — it’s not really a “war” if you can pop over to Starbucks then hop on a plane, potentially being an exponential spreader. Puzzling to me.
My argument is that it IS NOT NOVEL except in name, where it is among several Novel virus pandemics over recent years.
And it hardly causes death amount the young through the middle aged among adults.
But it's easy to overreact in the information age. Not that quarantining is an "over" reaction.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
I've been away from this thread because it became pedantic, not sure if this is new or not.
link - ( New Window )
This is part of the news I've been waiting for. If there is an effective drug(s) to address the critical situations first and prevent deaths is huge. From there you move to testing in earlier situations and see if that can limit the potency of the virus. At the least, until there is a vaccine (and that will take a while), this could become more manageable. The data for this kind of testing over the next 2-3 weeks will be critical to see the various cases and how effective it is and from there we can start to slowly come out of lock down, likely in phases based on health/age, and if they can test for antibodies. I do have hopes that maybe early May we can start to get to some levels of coming out of this.
Link - ( New Window )
The story is still being written and I hope when it is over the impact is on the lower end of what could be.
Below is an article that references her efforts to bring light to the severity early on.
Link - ( New Window )
Best of a bad neighborhood sort of thing. They still have identified fewer than 10,000 cases on a population base of 33 million after at least 3 months of having it if not 4. Yes they are undoubtedly tracing well and citizens are taking it more seriously but quite obviously since we know how infectious this strain is... it’s hard to put too much stock in a mortality rate which assumes only 0.03% of the population has been exposed to it
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approves Hydroxychloroquine for emergency use authorization.
I've been away from this thread because it became pedantic, not sure if this is new or not.
link - ( New Window )
This is part of the news I've been waiting for. If there is an effective drug(s) to address the critical situations first and prevent deaths is huge. From there you move to testing in earlier situations and see if that can limit the potency of the virus. At the least, until there is a vaccine (and that will take a while), this could become more manageable. The data for this kind of testing over the next 2-3 weeks will be critical to see the various cases and how effective it is and from there we can start to slowly come out of lock down, likely in phases based on health/age, and if they can test for antibodies. I do have hopes that maybe early May we can start to get to some levels of coming out of this.
Matt, how are you feeling?
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South Korea was being held up as the best data source due to their thorough testing. That seems to have changed as their mortality rate kept climbing.
Best of a bad neighborhood sort of thing. They still have identified fewer than 10,000 cases on a population base of 33 million after at least 3 months of having it if not 4. Yes they are undoubtedly tracing well and citizens are taking it more seriously but quite obviously since we know how infectious this strain is... it’s hard to put too much stock in a mortality rate which assumes only 0.03% of the population has been exposed to it
Why does the sample size in relation to population matter if the sample size itself is big enough? Especially since we know they are doing the most extensive surveillance testing? Germany's 1% and SK's 1.6% seem to be the best estimates we have right now in the most favorable circumstances.
Below is an article that references her efforts to bring light to the severity early on.
Link - ( New Window )
I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I 100% believe the reports that their fatalities were 10-20x higher than reported. There is no way they would shut down their economy for a few thousand deaths.
Very sorry to hear that Bubba.
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In comment 14853664 Bill in UT said:
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In comment 14853640 MetsAreBack said:
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Could you share the quote where Fauci said 100-200k was best case scenario? I can’t find that quote.
Fauci did not say that was a best case scenario, he said it was on the low end of the models. "The scientific models" also predict that the world will end from climate change in 10 years.
I have yet to see a valid model that shows the world ending from climate change in 10 years. Link?
Go to GretchenThunberg.com Look under Hyperbole :)
Methinks you have no idea what "hyperbole" means, particularly when you state this as fact. Remember, you aren't using a medium that lend itself to imprecise language.
The models are a very useful tool, they are used for example to predict which flu strains predominate and what their characteristics are, which allows a better flu vaccine.
I understand their limitations, but to say they mean nothing is nonsense. They are an important tool in public health decision making, and we are seeing this in real time as policy makers make adjustments based on what is happening in the future. What's more, if policy makers were more aggressive in responding to the theory showing how bad this would be, we might have had an extra month to get a jump on testing, masks and respirators.
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In comment 14853897 pjcas18 said:
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approves Hydroxychloroquine for emergency use authorization.
I've been away from this thread because it became pedantic, not sure if this is new or not.
link - ( New Window )
This is part of the news I've been waiting for. If there is an effective drug(s) to address the critical situations first and prevent deaths is huge. From there you move to testing in earlier situations and see if that can limit the potency of the virus. At the least, until there is a vaccine (and that will take a while), this could become more manageable. The data for this kind of testing over the next 2-3 weeks will be critical to see the various cases and how effective it is and from there we can start to slowly come out of lock down, likely in phases based on health/age, and if they can test for antibodies. I do have hopes that maybe early May we can start to get to some levels of coming out of this.
Matt, how are you feeling?
2 weeks to the day of the symptoms starting and I'm out of my basement. Fever broke last week and each day going by have felt better and better. Since Friday/Saturday I feel pretty much back at 100%. Not tired anymore. I haven't heard back from my test, but from all the stuff I've read that it takes about 2 weeks to get over (in my case) is what I've experienced. So fingers crossed.
2 weeks to the day of the symptoms starting and I'm out of my basement. Fever broke last week and each day going by have felt better and better. Since Friday/Saturday I feel pretty much back at 100%. Not tired anymore. I haven't heard back from my test, but from all the stuff I've read that it takes about 2 weeks to get over (in my case) is what I've experienced. So fingers crossed.
Thank god -- I hope you continue to improve Bro
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2 weeks to the day of the symptoms starting and I'm out of my basement. Fever broke last week and each day going by have felt better and better. Since Friday/Saturday I feel pretty much back at 100%. Not tired anymore. I haven't heard back from my test, but from all the stuff I've read that it takes about 2 weeks to get over (in my case) is what I've experienced. So fingers crossed.
Thank god -- I hope you continue to improve Bro
best to you both!
Not so great for those talking about their qualifications, having "people on the ground in China" and development of their own predictive models.
But every early morning, we get a rehash of successive posts bringing the discussion down. That's a key contribution here. (eyeroll)...
If you care to look, I quoted him somewhere on the thread that millions will die in this country if a Wuhan style lockdown, (national guard bringing food/supplies to your house) isn't enacted with full confidence and very incomplete data. Told him that was never going to happen here. He was working on the assumption that hospitals nationwide were going to get overloaded ala Italy. Hard to see that happening outside possibly extremely densely populated cities.
Another for dick measuring contests between the armchair doctors, amateur infectious disease experts and part time statisticians.
Another for dick measuring contests between the armchair doctors, amateur infectious disease experts and part time statisticians.
Yep. The number of people who pass themselves off as virologists on BBI has increased 25-fold since January. Add in people who supposedly build their own models to "accurately" present the situation and that number grows by 1....
I agree Giantology.
One thread for news and how posters are doing in their personal lives.
One thread for modelers
My point here is that there is no historical precedent for COVID-19. Standing by while millions and millions of people die is unacceptable in the modern world. Thats why you're seeing the greatest mobilization in this country since WW II and something similar happening around the world.
Socially and economically this might well be World War III. The difference between this one and the first two is that all the nations of the world are on the same side.
Another for dick measuring contests between the armchair doctors, amateur infectious disease experts and part time statisticians.
China Created a Fail-Safe System to Track Contagions. It Failed. - ( New Window )
Another for dick measuring contests between the armchair doctors, amateur infectious disease experts and part time statisticians.
There are scientists and professionals, including people that have published scientific literature on this topic, who post here.
Will be a great long party. Considering how many of us have been cultivating a serious tolerance over these months of boredom lol.
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One for actual news, updates, stories, etc
Another for dick measuring contests between the armchair doctors, amateur infectious disease experts and part time statisticians.
There are scientists and professionals, including people that have published scientific literature on this topic, who post here.
Reading this thread, you'd think the majority of the posters here are scientists and professionals who have published scientific literature on this topic.
Nothing I said was meant to de-mean or de-value the input they provide, their hard work and efforts right now are greatly appreciated. I just wonder how much value there is to letting those professionals debate Joe Shmoe.
And if people have to rattle off their resumes, well, I don't think that even millions from a VC can make them look intelligent
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Reading this thread, you'd think the majority of the posters here are scientists and professionals who have published scientific literature on this topic.
And if people have to rattle off their resumes, well, I don't think that even millions from a VC can make them look intelligent
You are truly an asshole...
Let's be clear.
MAB threw out the insults.
I called his bluff.
He was too chickenshit to tell us what he did.
Of course you ignore that.
I also said that we could change that outcome based on our behavior.
This is no different that what Bill2 said above about how this goes depends upon many assumptions. I made a set of worst case assumptions, and I stated that... We don't know how this will end yet, it all depends on us. That was the message.
Now the government is saying that if we do nothing millions will die. Their set of assumptions is a bit different, but the outcome is still in the millions, unless we are effective with social distancing. Again, the message from the government is the same as the message from my post.
As time goes by, this situation has gotten far worse than all those who were then and are now attacking me. In many way it has already surpassed the outcomes that they predicted. They said it was nothing more than the flu. And now that they have been proven wrong, they still try to twist and attack. What basis do they have for these attacks when they have been proven wrong over and over and over. They are liars, they lie about what they said, they lie about what I said, they lie about the context in which things were said. But they just keep on attacking.
MAB stooped so low as to attack my mother and said something about blowing her brains out...
Does FMiC mention that?
These people are truly scum of the earth. It's about time that they are recognized for what they are.
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Reading this thread, you'd think the majority of the posters here are scientists and professionals who have published scientific literature on this topic.
And if people have to rattle off their resumes, well, I don't think that even millions from a VC can make them look intelligent
You are truly an asshole...
Let's be clear.
MAB threw out the insults.
I called his bluff.
He was too chickenshit to tell us what he did.
Of course you ignore that.
I don't give a shit about any of these fights, but MetsAreBack is legit...
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In comment 14854169 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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Quote:
Reading this thread, you'd think the majority of the posters here are scientists and professionals who have published scientific literature on this topic.
And if people have to rattle off their resumes, well, I don't think that even millions from a VC can make them look intelligent
You are truly an asshole...
Let's be clear.
MAB threw out the insults.
I called his bluff.
He was too chickenshit to tell us what he did.
Of course you ignore that.
I don't give a shit about any of these fights, but MetsAreBack is legit...
A legit what? A legit Asshole?
Did you see what he wrote about my mother?
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In comment 14854169 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
Quote:
Reading this thread, you'd think the majority of the posters here are scientists and professionals who have published scientific literature on this topic.
And if people have to rattle off their resumes, well, I don't think that even millions from a VC can make them look intelligent
You are truly an asshole...
Let's be clear.
MAB threw out the insults.
I called his bluff.
He was too chickenshit to tell us what he did.
Of course you ignore that.
I don't give a shit about any of these fights, but MetsAreBack is legit...
I don't give a shit about any of these fights and typically will quickly glance through them as I'm paging down the wall of text between posters. Whether MAB is legit or not, he crossed the line and should have realized as he typed the comment. Dude deserves a timeout and .MCL. is owed an apology. I don't care who you are, but making a comment about someone's mother blowing her brains out is disgusting.
I'll see myself back out...
...
I don't give a shit about any of these fights and typically will quickly glance through them as I'm paging down the wall of text between posters. Whether MAB is legit or not, he crossed the line and should have realized as he typed the comment. Dude deserves a timeout and .MCL. is owed an apology. I don't care who you are, but making a comment about someone's mother blowing her brains out is disgusting.
MAB's Disgusting Comment - ( New Window )
I wanted to hear from people who experienced it and how they recovered. It's almost impossible to read those useful posts with all of the other crap. Just saying.
My state, Massachusetts, has schools closed at least until May 4.
At first I thought kids would be thrilled, like a vacation, but man, my kids are really sad. Well the older ones are sad. I have twin seniors in high school and they're getting different things canceled every day.
spring sports season in their entirety and prom and graduation are now on the chopping block.
My youngest is worried about catching up, educationally and I had no good answer for her - my wife had better answers but not sure they were true (LOL).
Obviously when people are dying these concerns seem small, but as a parent it's important to realize what your kid relates to and what anxiety they might have in a time like this.
They're saying the right things, and trying to maintain a positive outlook but you can tell they are frustrated, disappointed, and even scared.
Hope people are diligent these next 30 days and we can return to normalcy at some point before June.
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In comment 14853935 Matt in SGS said:
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In comment 14853897 pjcas18 said:
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approves Hydroxychloroquine for emergency use authorization.
I've been away from this thread because it became pedantic, not sure if this is new or not.
link - ( New Window )
This is part of the news I've been waiting for. If there is an effective drug(s) to address the critical situations first and prevent deaths is huge. From there you move to testing in earlier situations and see if that can limit the potency of the virus. At the least, until there is a vaccine (and that will take a while), this could become more manageable. The data for this kind of testing over the next 2-3 weeks will be critical to see the various cases and how effective it is and from there we can start to slowly come out of lock down, likely in phases based on health/age, and if they can test for antibodies. I do have hopes that maybe early May we can start to get to some levels of coming out of this.
Matt, how are you feeling?
2 weeks to the day of the symptoms starting and I'm out of my basement. Fever broke last week and each day going by have felt better and better. Since Friday/Saturday I feel pretty much back at 100%. Not tired anymore. I haven't heard back from my test, but from all the stuff I've read that it takes about 2 weeks to get over (in my case) is what I've experienced. So fingers crossed.
Great news! Prayers to you for a full and speedy recovery. God bless.
I'll see myself back out...
In addition to making disgusting comments about my mother, MAB challenged my creds and wouldn't respond when I called his bluff. But you all over look that part. Go back and look who started with the challenges.
Quote:
anything about a mother, I just saw McL challenging MAB's credentials.
I'll see myself back out...
In addition to making disgusting comments about my mother, MAB challenged my creds and wouldn't respond when I called his bluff. But you all over look that part. Go back and look who started with the challenges.
In fact he challenged my creds, I answered him, and asked him what his were. And I got back a stream of insults. Including the disgusting comments. Look at who hurled the insults. I never hurled a single insult except to respond to his challenge and push him to show his cards. I never insulted him once.
Quote:
In comment 14853935 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
In comment 14853897 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
approves Hydroxychloroquine for emergency use authorization.
I've been away from this thread because it became pedantic, not sure if this is new or not.
link - ( New Window )
This is part of the news I've been waiting for. If there is an effective drug(s) to address the critical situations first and prevent deaths is huge. From there you move to testing in earlier situations and see if that can limit the potency of the virus. At the least, until there is a vaccine (and that will take a while), this could become more manageable. The data for this kind of testing over the next 2-3 weeks will be critical to see the various cases and how effective it is and from there we can start to slowly come out of lock down, likely in phases based on health/age, and if they can test for antibodies. I do have hopes that maybe early May we can start to get to some levels of coming out of this.
Matt, how are you feeling?
2 weeks to the day of the symptoms starting and I'm out of my basement. Fever broke last week and each day going by have felt better and better. Since Friday/Saturday I feel pretty much back at 100%. Not tired anymore. I haven't heard back from my test, but from all the stuff I've read that it takes about 2 weeks to get over (in my case) is what I've experienced. So fingers crossed.
Thank goodness you're feeling better
Mcl you said you understated Korea’s mortality rate - they have 150 deaths 3 months into this on a population of 51.5 million. You’ve said this thing spreads every 2.5 days, and perhaps that’s right - but it quite obviously means over 3 months even with tracing that their denominator is multiples, Maybe hundreds of multiples, higher than their 10k official cases.
Everyone at this point knows about 3-5% of their friends and colleagues have this. - which makes sense given how infectious you yourself have said. And that’s people that are open about it. So right there that means 15 million or so have it in this country. But who knows - no country universal tests, so no one has any clue what the mortality rate is.
As far as who is a moron, 100-200k is horrible .... but it is not worth shutting down a country, economy and way of life through July and not having sports or anything fun for years over. they just extended the shutdown basically through April - but I pray we slowly get back to normal in May
Look at this post, and you think MAB is legit?
1) SK stopped the spread and exponential growth with aggressive testing and quarantine. I have spoken about and praised their strategy many times. However this depends on your ability to test, contact trace and quarantine every positive. Once there are too many positives, this becomes impossible to implement. You can infer the number of infections is 97% accurate in SK because of the number of new infections per day. If there were orders of magnitude more people infected, there would be exponential spread and it would be impossible to control by testing and quarantining. To have about 100 per day, they only have 200 - 300 cases in their population undetected. This doesn't take difficult math, just a little logic and common sense.
2) 3 - 5% of the US population is infected. Really, Dr. Birx a few days ago said it was less than 1 in 1000 or .1%. I'm not a big fan of Birx, but I believe her on this one.
3) Fauci said 100K - 200K is a BEST CASE SCENARIO to which they are hoping to keep it down. The best case is only achieved through strict social distancing. MAB is more worried about his 401K than peoples lives, including my mother's. Its disgusting.
My state, Massachusetts, has schools closed at least until May 4.
At first I thought kids would be thrilled, like a vacation, but man, my kids are really sad. Well the older ones are sad. I have twin seniors in high school and they're getting different things canceled every day.
Same issue with my kids, they kinda miss school in a weird way. The structure, the social aspect etc.
Was out walking the other day, and the local elementary school teacher at the school had a “parade” for the students. Teachers decorated their cars, posters/signs etc while parents and the kids were lining both sides of the street cheering them on with signs of their own. I happened to be walking through as all this was going on, and the joy in the teachers faces was pretty neat to see. And the kids were so incredibly happy to see them - brought some normality to their lives for a few minutes. It really was a nice sense of community.
For anyone about to shout about social distancing. Teachers were in their cars drivin, windows down and waving. Parents and kids were spread out for close to a mile, on two sides of the street.
New Economics Paper - ( New Window )
Quote:
Could you share the quote where Fauci said 100-200k was best case scenario? I can’t find that quote.
Mcl you said you understated Korea’s mortality rate - they have 150 deaths 3 months into this on a population of 51.5 million. You’ve said this thing spreads every 2.5 days, and perhaps that’s right - but it quite obviously means over 3 months even with tracing that their denominator is multiples, Maybe hundreds of multiples, higher than their 10k official cases.
Everyone at this point knows about 3-5% of their friends and colleagues have this. - which makes sense given how infectious you yourself have said. And that’s people that are open about it. So right there that means 15 million or so have it in this country. But who knows - no country universal tests, so no one has any clue what the mortality rate is.
As far as who is a moron, 100-200k is horrible .... but it is not worth shutting down a country, economy and way of life through July and not having sports or anything fun for years over. they just extended the shutdown basically through April - but I pray we slowly get back to normal in May
Look at this post, and you think MAB is legit?
1) SK stopped the spread and exponential growth with aggressive testing and quarantine. I have spoken about and praised their strategy many times. However this depends on your ability to test, contact trace and quarantine every positive. Once there are too many positives, this becomes impossible to implement. You can infer the number of infections is 97% accurate in SK because of the number of new infections per day. If there were orders of magnitude more people infected, there would be exponential spread and it would be impossible to control by testing and quarantining. To have about 100 per day, they only have 200 - 300 cases in their population undetected. This doesn't take difficult math, just a little logic and common sense.
2) 3 - 5% of the US population is infected. Really, Dr. Birx a few days ago said it was less than 1 in 1000 or .1%. I'm not a big fan of Birx, but I believe her on this one.
3) Fauci said 100K - 200K is a BEST CASE SCENARIO to which they are hoping to keep it down. The best case is only achieved through strict social distancing. MAB is more worried about his 401K than peoples lives, including my mother's. Its disgusting.
Birx said this morning we could lose up to 200K if we do things "perfectly". Flip side, if we aren't perfect or close to it, things could get really bad.
That should be concerning.
I agree that the pissing matches are stupid but I think it's equally stupid to bag on people for being "overdramatic" 4-8 weeks ago. It turns out they weren't and this is pretty bad. This is perhaps the worst thing we will all go through in our lifetimes (hopefully there's nothing worse than this for a long time). That is nothing for anyone to cheer over. I can only speak for myself though and say that a lot of the information provided on these threads helped me to understand why this was so serious back before most of us had ever heard the name "fauci".
Awesome paper kicker...
It aligns with what i have been saying.... If you want to fix the economy you have to fix the pandemic first. The earlier and more aggressively you put in place the suppression measures the better your economy will ultimately perform...
for those unwilling to click, and/or read the paper, there is a summary without having to get the whole thing.
So if you are worried about your 401K, then you should be calling for the most aggressive measures we can possibly implement, and have them implemented immediately, nationwide.
As I said, if you think this is a choice between the economy and public health, it's not. It's false choice. Fix public health and the economy will follow.
2) They have clearly and cleanly measured raw data for decades
3) The core assumptions at the base of the pyramid are incontrovertible per minute ( Temperature, Barometer, Wind Measures, etc).
4) The measurement instruments are calibrated and maintained
5) Professionals cross tab the validity of the instruments and the measures
So No Garbage in to the models. Period
6) The models are tested over long periods of time
7) Refinements to the models are done off line
8) Significant number of well qualified people pour over every inch of model validity that it is a refinement.
9) Edge cases to the models are kept and compared so the right model is used in the right applicable circumstances.
Glad you helped make my point.
Thanks
This isn't an either or scenario, IMO (save our economy vs save lives). Our economy was getting wrecked regardless, unless you have blind faith in the virus not killing hundreds of thousands of people (or more) if we didn't quarantine.
It sucks for everyone trying to make a living, but I'd rather be poor than dead.
‘We need to be alert’: Scientists fear second coronavirus wave as China’s lockdowns ease
Hope for seasonality of COVID-19
Role of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine in the Treatment of COVID-19 Infection- A Systematic Literature Review
The structure of the viral domain that binds to the ACE2 receptor, which SARS-Cov-2 uses to enter cells has been identified, which will aid in the development of vaccines and treatments. Two labs have done this (Link 1, Link 2)
Commentary: Suppressing early information on COVID-19 and other health scares can aid misinformation - Sounds a little like BBI
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In comment 14854206 .McL. said:
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In comment 14854169 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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Reading this thread, you'd think the majority of the posters here are scientists and professionals who have published scientific literature on this topic.
And if people have to rattle off their resumes, well, I don't think that even millions from a VC can make them look intelligent
You are truly an asshole...
Let's be clear.
MAB threw out the insults.
I called his bluff.
He was too chickenshit to tell us what he did.
Of course you ignore that.
I don't give a shit about any of these fights, but MetsAreBack is legit...
I don't give a shit about any of these fights and typically will quickly glance through them as I'm paging down the wall of text between posters. Whether MAB is legit or not, he crossed the line and should have realized as he typed the comment. Dude deserves a timeout and .MCL. is owed an apology. I don't care who you are, but making a comment about someone's mother blowing her brains out is disgusting.
Get a grip. All I said - knowing McL is with his mother the past month - is that even she must be tired of his incessant doomsday bullshit hence ‘must want to blow her brains out’ (being around her son all the time)
I know we’re all a little on edge with this stuff but to conclude I’m going after ‘her’ in some way is a major league stretch. I don’t even know her, nor didn I make fun of her in any way. I’m going after McL who came after me too for being an insufferable asshole.
As for my credentials, I have nothing to prove to a giants message board. I work in financial services and in senior positions for a while now but none of this makes either / any of us go to sources on this topic. McL claims to be an economist, a world renowned entrepreneur, a Wall Street risk Management modeler and an epidemic / pandemic world class expert
All in one. Oh and with contacts in China too.
None of which makes him an expert on Coronavirus but carry on.
All that is hypersensitivity.
Models are great. Building them is essential to how I do my work.
Knowing their limitations and questioning the entire set of inputs into a valid decision support tool is the key to moving from Cruncher to Decider. From noise to Trusted Advisor.
Anyone responsible for a business knows its not the brilliance of the model...its the data, the samples, the data validity and the assumptions that the modeler has to work with
Instead of reading it as an insult, read it as sympathy for the difficulty of projections given the data at this time.
Again, no insult or disregard to the technology of data scientists. There are cases applied math has produced significant breakthroughs and cases its not useful. That has to do with the data you get to work with and the range of uncertainty which must be applied to the assumptions.
Im sure we violently agree
2) They have clearly and cleanly measured raw data for decades
3) The core assumptions at the base of the pyramid are incontrovertible per minute ( Temperature, Barometer, Wind Measures, etc).
4) The measurement instruments are calibrated and maintained
5) Professionals cross tab the validity of the instruments and the measures
So No Garbage in to the models. Period
6) The models are tested over long periods of time
7) Refinements to the models are done off line
8) Significant number of well qualified people pour over every inch of model validity that it is a refinement.
9) Edge cases to the models are kept and compared so the right model is used in the right applicable circumstances.
Glad you helped make my point.
Thanks
All of these are true of epidemic models, which have a long and successful history of forecasting. All forecasts are probabilistic, in epidemiology and the weather. That is why the hurricane tracker has a wide confidence interval about its path when it is far away, and it is why epidemic models get better and better as the infection plays itself out. The similarities run deeper than you think.
People are using epidemic models every day. Cuomo predicts how many respirators he needs and when (how does he know enough to say this?). People are concerned because Fauci puts up a 100k-200K death guesstimate (Where do these numbers come from? Is he some sort of wacko?)
There is a serious science behind public health as it relates to infectious disease, and when people poo-poo the entire thing, it just shows they don't really know what they are talking about.
You're welcome
Quote:
In comment 14854220 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
In comment 14854206 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14854169 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
Quote:
Reading this thread, you'd think the majority of the posters here are scientists and professionals who have published scientific literature on this topic.
And if people have to rattle off their resumes, well, I don't think that even millions from a VC can make them look intelligent
You are truly an asshole...
Let's be clear.
MAB threw out the insults.
I called his bluff.
He was too chickenshit to tell us what he did.
Of course you ignore that.
I don't give a shit about any of these fights, but MetsAreBack is legit...
I don't give a shit about any of these fights and typically will quickly glance through them as I'm paging down the wall of text between posters. Whether MAB is legit or not, he crossed the line and should have realized as he typed the comment. Dude deserves a timeout and .MCL. is owed an apology. I don't care who you are, but making a comment about someone's mother blowing her brains out is disgusting.
Get a grip. All I said - knowing McL is with his mother the past month - is that even she must be tired of his incessant doomsday bullshit hence ‘must want to blow her brains out’ (being around her son all the time)
I know we’re all a little on edge with this stuff but to conclude I’m going after ‘her’ in some way is a major league stretch. I don’t even know her, nor didn I make fun of her in any way. I’m going after McL who came after me too for being an insufferable asshole.
As for my credentials, I have nothing to prove to a giants message board. I work in financial services and in senior positions for a while now but none of this makes either / any of us go to sources on this topic. McL claims to be an economist, a world renowned entrepreneur, a Wall Street risk Management modeler and an epidemic / pandemic world class expert
All in one. Oh and with contacts in China too.
None of which makes him an expert on Coronavirus but carry on.
I second the context that MAB was just making a joke about McL’s incessant posting, and it wasn’t mean spirited.
Holy shit, my sister is in Arlington. I guess it can always be lifted but that's brutal
Does this paper address the issue that the target populations of the 1918 Spanish Flu and Covid are much different? I skimmed through, but I'm pretty busy with work. I'm having trouble using the Spanish Flu as a good comparison point because of this issue, but I'm all ears if you don't think that is a big concern.
Only problem the segment was actually showing hospitals in Italy. Not showing "here's what could happen", but here is the situation right now while Cuomo was talking about PPE supplies, etc.
They claim it was an editing error.
No need for stuff like this, since NY hospital situation probably is dire in its own right, but this kind of stuff - especially without proper retraction - leads to media credibility issues and fans the flames.
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A good paper on whether economic responses to pandemics (shelter in place, other measures) harm the economy. New Economics Paper - ( New Window )
Awesome paper kicker...
It aligns with what i have been saying.... If you want to fix the economy you have to fix the pandemic first. The earlier and more aggressively you put in place the suppression measures the better your economy will ultimately perform...
for those unwilling to click, and/or read the paper, there is a summary without having to get the whole thing.
Quote:
Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decrease influenza mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S. cities to study their economic effects. We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.
So if you are worried about your 401K, then you should be calling for the most aggressive measures we can possibly implement, and have them implemented immediately, nationwide.
As I said, if you think this is a choice between the economy and public health, it's not. It's false choice. Fix public health and the economy will follow.
I mean, yes and no. There estimates rely on the plausible assumption of their instrument (which is a big fight in itself), but they NPI's also can't control for important considerations in the difference between 1918 and 2020 (i.e., distance between cities, number of paved roads, etc.).
It's meant for broad policy (shelter in place), but can't be used as prima facie evidence for the most restrictive types of policies possible.
Quote:
A good paper on whether economic responses to pandemics (shelter in place, other measures) harm the economy. New Economics Paper - ( New Window )
Does this paper address the issue that the target populations of the 1918 Spanish Flu and Covid are much different? I skimmed through, but I'm pretty busy with work. I'm having trouble using the Spanish Flu as a good comparison point because of this issue, but I'm all ears if you don't think that is a big concern.
There's going to be no suitably acceptable comparison. This paper is suggestive that shelter in place policies may help, but it can't ascertain whether draconian policies (i.e., fines or arrests if you don't shelter in place) are effective.
Quote:
In comment 14854220 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
In comment 14854206 .McL. said:
Quote:
In comment 14854169 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
Quote:
Reading this thread, you'd think the majority of the posters here are scientists and professionals who have published scientific literature on this topic.
And if people have to rattle off their resumes, well, I don't think that even millions from a VC can make them look intelligent
You are truly an asshole...
Let's be clear.
MAB threw out the insults.
I called his bluff.
He was too chickenshit to tell us what he did.
Of course you ignore that.
I don't give a shit about any of these fights, but MetsAreBack is legit...
I don't give a shit about any of these fights and typically will quickly glance through them as I'm paging down the wall of text between posters. Whether MAB is legit or not, he crossed the line and should have realized as he typed the comment. Dude deserves a timeout and .MCL. is owed an apology. I don't care who you are, but making a comment about someone's mother blowing her brains out is disgusting.
Get a grip. All I said - knowing McL is with his mother the past month - is that even she must be tired of his incessant doomsday bullshit hence ‘must want to blow her brains out’ (being around her son all the time)
I know we’re all a little on edge with this stuff but to conclude I’m going after ‘her’ in some way is a major league stretch. I don’t even know her, nor didn I make fun of her in any way. I’m going after McL who came after me too for being an insufferable asshole.
As for my credentials, I have nothing to prove to a giants message board. I work in financial services and in senior positions for a while now but none of this makes either / any of us go to sources on this topic. McL claims to be an economist, a world renowned entrepreneur, a Wall Street risk Management modeler and an epidemic / pandemic world class expert
All in one. Oh and with contacts in China too.
None of which makes him an expert on Coronavirus but carry on.
I would be considered expert and most of what McL has said has been in line with what I am seeing scientists say. I can't say that about your posts.
McL claims to be an economist, a world renowned entrepreneur, a Wall Street risk Management modeler and an epidemic / pandemic world class expert
All in one. Oh and with contacts in China too.
Bullshit, never claimed to be an economist, in fact I said I wasn't. Never said I was a "world renowned" entrepreneur. Never said I was "epidemic / pandemic world class expert", in fact if you look back in my posts, I said I wasn't expert in virology or epidemiology. The only claim I have made is that I can do the math. And I never insulted you or called you a moron, insufferable or an asshole, though others did.
And yes I have contacts in China... I worked there for a while, also, my wife is Chinese. Between us, we have lots of contacts in China.
I said that I had sensationalist details that were hard to believe, one of those that I hesitated to post, and that I got from one of my contacts in China was that they were locking whole families in their homes leaving them to die. This was confirmed in an interview with Eunice Yoon, CNBC Bureau Chief, today in an interview with Brian Lehrer. My contact gave additional details, saying that families were throwing their money out the window because they were locked in and knew they were going to die and they didn't want the officials to take the money. They would rather regular people got it.
You can listen to the interview here.
https://www.wnyc.org/story/lessons-from-china-new-york/
Credential swapping much beyond a sophomore game. Its easy to slide through. Its hard to think and to be effective. Its just not impressive. And its a downright decades long bad tactic for earning respect. No one cares and we all got A marks in for things we didn't really master.
When I see a guy doing that, especially repeatedly, my conclusion based on lots of data points is that he just doesn't get it in the real world
Now, did MAB say things over the boundary. I agree you are owed an apology
As for questioning your credentials? You have provided endless reasons on endless topics why we should go beyond your ability to use other peoples math; and be skeptical your ability to think effectively. We don't care about your credentials. Only dummies are impressed by that.
You continue to mis understand the audience you are talking to. Its loaded with accomplished and smart people who got there by questioning what they were hearing.
Once again, this is not an attack. You are far from the contributor you could be. ( think the person you want to be not the shields you use for comfort in social situations). This is feedback. You are getting it from many, many people. Use it. Its data for the model you really want to build.
Credential swapping much beyond a sophomore game. Its easy to slide through. Its hard to think and to be effective. Its just not impressive. And its a downright decades long bad tactic for earning respect. No one cares and we all got A marks in for things we didn't really master.
When I see a guy doing that, especially repeatedly, my conclusion based on lots of data points is that he just doesn't get it in the real world
Now, did MAB say things over the boundary. I agree you are owed an apology
As for questioning your credentials? You have provided endless reasons on endless topics why we should go beyond your ability to use other peoples math; and be skeptical your ability to think effectively. We don't care about your credentials. Only dummies are impressed by that.
You continue to mis understand the audience you are talking to. Its loaded with accomplished and smart people who got there by questioning what they were hearing.
Once again, this is not an attack. You are far from the contributor you could be. ( think the person you want to be not the shields you use for comfort in social situations). This is feedback. You are getting it from many, many people. Use it. Its data for the model you really want to build.
Bill, you say that cred matching is sophomoric... Ok, shouldn't MAB have considered that before posting his insults? Why does he get a pass?
Furthermore, his posts have been prima facie ridiculous and contrary to what every expert out there has been saying. That kinda cuts into his credibility, don't ya think?
Credential swapping much beyond a sophomore game. Its easy to slide through. Its hard to think and to be effective. Its just not impressive. And its a downright decades long bad tactic for earning respect. No one cares and we all got A marks in for things we didn't really master.
When I see a guy doing that, especially repeatedly, my conclusion based on lots of data points is that he just doesn't get it in the real world
Now, did MAB say things over the boundary. I agree you are owed an apology
As for questioning your credentials? You have provided endless reasons on endless topics why we should go beyond your ability to use other peoples math; and be skeptical your ability to think effectively. We don't care about your credentials. Only dummies are impressed by that.
You continue to mis understand the audience you are talking to. Its loaded with accomplished and smart people who got there by questioning what they were hearing.
Once again, this is not an attack. You are far from the contributor you could be. ( think the person you want to be not the shields you use for comfort in social situations). This is feedback. You are getting it from many, many people. Use it. Its data for the model you really want to build.
Nailed it, per usual
Hope we get to see this Yankees season, Bill. I miss those discussions here. Trying times indeed
I'd think it's safe to say logically, that, the ones who do have the most distinguished knowledge of COVID-19 are out there and they're doing their best. We are just left to guess and we will get through this together. Big Blue Interactive is a community and despite all of our shortcomings, we must all rally together, so guys please do your...
Ah, fuck that. Why am I the voice of reason? As you were. That was exhausting.
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schools closed indefinitely.
My state, Massachusetts, has schools closed at least until May 4.
At first I thought kids would be thrilled, like a vacation, but man, my kids are really sad. Well the older ones are sad. I have twin seniors in high school and they're getting different things canceled every day.
Same issue with my kids, they kinda miss school in a weird way. The structure, the social aspect etc.
Was out walking the other day, and the local elementary school teacher at the school had a “parade” for the students. Teachers decorated their cars, posters/signs etc while parents and the kids were lining both sides of the street cheering them on with signs of their own. I happened to be walking through as all this was going on, and the joy in the teachers faces was pretty neat to see. And the kids were so incredibly happy to see them - brought some normality to their lives for a few minutes. It really was a nice sense of community.
For anyone about to shout about social distancing. Teachers were in their cars drivin, windows down and waving. Parents and kids were spread out for close to a mile, on two sides of the street.
My kids would rather be in school too.
And I wonder if you're in CT, as I know an elementary school teacher that participated in a parade exactly as you described. It sounded nice, and her kids had something to do, decorating and all.
I was so psyched for a season of watching the Yankees. What a joy to watch competence instead of what we have endured.
Think of it...warm sun or evening. Familiar sounds, watching the mastery of how Cole approaches a game, ignoring Kay and listening to Kenny, Paul and Coney. I had even purchased a few tickets ahead of time. Every time I go for the last four years was a Judge home run, so I doubled the games Im going to!
Take care
I certainly will ratchet up the effort to remember that
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In comment 14854251 pjcas18 said:
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schools closed indefinitely.
My state, Massachusetts, has schools closed at least until May 4.
At first I thought kids would be thrilled, like a vacation, but man, my kids are really sad. Well the older ones are sad. I have twin seniors in high school and they're getting different things canceled every day.
Same issue with my kids, they kinda miss school in a weird way. The structure, the social aspect etc.
Was out walking the other day, and the local elementary school teacher at the school had a “parade” for the students. Teachers decorated their cars, posters/signs etc while parents and the kids were lining both sides of the street cheering them on with signs of their own. I happened to be walking through as all this was going on, and the joy in the teachers faces was pretty neat to see. And the kids were so incredibly happy to see them - brought some normality to their lives for a few minutes. It really was a nice sense of community.
For anyone about to shout about social distancing. Teachers were in their cars drivin, windows down and waving. Parents and kids were spread out for close to a mile, on two sides of the street.
My kids would rather be in school too.
And I wonder if you're in CT, as I know an elementary school teacher that participated in a parade exactly as you described. It sounded nice, and her kids had something to do, decorating and all.
Same here in MA, teachers did something similar and asked all the students to use chalk and write positive messages in their driveways. I think that came from a viral social media post.
I was so psyched for a season of watching the Yankees. What a joy to watch competence instead of what we have endured.
Think of it...warm sun or evening. Familiar sounds, watching the mastery of how Cole approaches a game, ignoring Kay and listening to Kenny, Paul and Coney. I had even purchased a few tickets ahead of time. Every time I go for the last four years was a Judge home run, so I doubled the games Im going to!
Take care
I miss that, but I won't give up hope we can still get it this summer.
We're doing alright, staying in to try to do our small part to bring some normalcy back eventually. Take care, Bill
Its a tough thread to pull useful stuff out in between the rest.
I know you are trying but you must be very very tired from all your entrepreneurial endeavors ( which is a maelstrom of urgent for years) and friends and other connections and late night research on this plus model building and testing. Plus posting.
Why does the FDA get credit for essentially speeding through timelines which they themselves implement?
Whole Foods employees set to strike or stage a sick out
If they get #2 why wouldn't everyone just stay home?
- hazard pay of double the current hourly wage
-paid leave for all workers who stay home or self-quarantine
-free coronavirus testing for all employees
"It’s very plausible that some of us will die for this job.”
Credential swapping much beyond a sophomore game. Its easy to slide through. Its hard to think and to be effective. Its just not impressive. And its a downright decades long bad tactic for earning respect. No one cares and we all got A marks in for things we didn't really master.
When I see a guy doing that, especially repeatedly, my conclusion based on lots of data points is that he just doesn't get it in the real world
Now, did MAB say things over the boundary. I agree you are owed an apology
As for questioning your credentials? You have provided endless reasons on endless topics why we should go beyond your ability to use other peoples math; and be skeptical your ability to think effectively. We don't care about your credentials. Only dummies are impressed by that.
You continue to mis understand the audience you are talking to. Its loaded with accomplished and smart people who got there by questioning what they were hearing.
Once again, this is not an attack. You are far from the contributor you could be. ( think the person you want to be not the shields you use for comfort in social situations). This is feedback. You are getting it from many, many people. Use it. Its data for the model you really want to build.
Bill, let me add. I understand where you are coming from. Whether you realize it or not, I have shown restraint.
The same group of people have been attacking me personally, calling me out, twisting my words, insulting me (and my family), and outright lying about what I have said. They have been posting absolutely ridiculous assessments and using their "hunches" as proof to attack. I have ignored the vast majority of their attacks. I didn't post or respond to them for a couple of weeks.
When I finally decide to defend myself, they felt entitled to double down on their attacks. Seriously, go through the thread and see how many times they called me out and twisted my words, and I said nothing.
Why does the FDA get credit for essentially speeding through timelines which they themselves implement?
Who is giving anyone any credit at the Federal level other then Dr. Fauci and to a lesser extent Dr. Birx? Practically everyone else at the Federal level is being criticized - definitely not glad handed.
Most of what I read is people just looking to play the blame game and point fingers at the lack of preparedness and the lack of comprehension with how serious this would be much sooner.
Do you feel people (as a rule) are responding differently than what I see?
Its a tough thread to pull useful stuff out in between the rest.
I know you are trying but you must be very very tired from all your entrepreneurial endeavors ( which is a maelstrom of urgent for years) and friends and other connections and late night research on this plus model building and testing. Plus posting.
This is truth!
:)
Also from many many first hand sources, the hospital situation in NYC is far far worse than is being reported. That may not be in all hospitals, but in several large hospitals in at least 3 boroughs.
One of my employees had a non-life threatening medical emergency with her 3 year old daughter (non-COVID-19 related). Something that you would take your kid to the hospital or urgent care 99.9% of the time. Her pediatrician instead told them under no circumstances should they go to the ER unless it is life-threatening and gave them step-by-step treatment over the phone and references to on-line videos. To me that's one of the craziest and startling stories I've heard so far.
And I appreciate the detail and work you put into this, but the continuous harping of models and credentials does come across a bit sanctimonious and a bit tiresome. You have clearly made your point already.
Why does the FDA get credit for essentially speeding through timelines which they themselves implement?
Same reason in normal times we give companies credit for running efficient cash registers/checkouts/returns/etc. Logistics, paperwork, quality control are all necessary and not easy to do well at a scale.
btw I am not commenting specifically on whether the FDA in particular or any bureaucracy has done well or not done well in this instance. Just speaking more big picture that all big companies are bureaucracies and some deserve more credit than others.
Most of what I read is people just looking to play the blame game and point fingers at the lack of preparedness and the lack of comprehension with how serious this would be much sooner.
Do you feel people (as a rule) are responding differently than what I see?
Every single person paraded at press conferences is lauding these groups.
I'm watching one right now, I have no clue who was speaking but it's cheer-leading all over.
Glad to hear from you and had noted your absence. The article, from the abstract (have not tried yet to get at the whole thing)
seems to measure economic damage by reference to manufacturing levels. Are we so dependent on manufacturing today? Is that a valid proxy for other types of economic activity?
Quote:
Who is giving anyone any credit at the Federal level other then Dr. Fauci and to a lesser extent Dr. Birx? Practically everyone else at the Federal level is being criticized - definitely not glad handed.
Most of what I read is people just looking to play the blame game and point fingers at the lack of preparedness and the lack of comprehension with how serious this would be much sooner.
Do you feel people (as a rule) are responding differently than what I see?
Every single person paraded at press conferences is lauding these groups.
I'm watching one right now, I have no clue who was speaking but it's cheer-leading all over.
Oh, those are all "Federal" people. right?
Try watching or listening to a state press conference or read the media responses to the federal press conference on social media.
No one, other than themselves that I see, are praising them.
Why does the FDA get credit for essentially speeding through timelines which they themselves implement?
My opinion is government agency's such as this, fall on the side of caution. In normal times they want to make sure things are completely tested, and have gone through rigorous reviews, before turning it lose. I can see there point, because you could just imagine the injury's (and lawsuits) if things were rushed through without being 100% sure. This however is a unique situation.
Wonder how he picked that date? Now, if he could only get VA income taxes in line with the others, we'd be in even better shape.
Quote:
A good paper on whether economic responses to pandemics (shelter in place, other measures) harm the economy. New Economics Paper - ( New Window )
Glad to hear from you and had noted your absence. The article, from the abstract (have not tried yet to get at the whole thing)
seems to measure economic damage by reference to manufacturing levels. Are we so dependent on manufacturing today? Is that a valid proxy for other types of economic activity?
Yeah, got busy with getting some of my own research ready to publish.
Not, it's not the best measure, but I think they were simply trying to convey the message that it's not a dichotomous choice between restrictions and economic death.
Why does the FDA get credit for essentially speeding through timelines which they themselves implement?
Because medicine is a science, you need multiple tests to confirm results. It's being sped along here because this an emergency. Although they def should have had some foresight that these barriers would not to be taken down.
Any useful news in the prior 48 hours
To check in on friends whose lives are made harder by this.
So I cant comment on that description and im sorry but Im not spending time going backwards.
If is has been as you describe and you played no part in that - then for your own sake, and in consideration for the many irons in the fire you do have...maybe concentrate on the ones where the actual and psychological returns lift you and not tear at you?
Commentary: Suppressing early information on COVID-19 and other health scares can aid misinformation - Sounds a little like BBI
Does. Worrying about public trust in politicians, though, seems frivolous. Who here would do that?
I certainly will ratchet up the effort to remember that
You know how you sort of form a vague mental image of BBI posters you’ve never met? I’m getting a strong Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive for Bill2. Always solid.
Quote:
In comment 14854461 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Who is giving anyone any credit at the Federal level other then Dr. Fauci and to a lesser extent Dr. Birx? Practically everyone else at the Federal level is being criticized - definitely not glad handed.
Most of what I read is people just looking to play the blame game and point fingers at the lack of preparedness and the lack of comprehension with how serious this would be much sooner.
Do you feel people (as a rule) are responding differently than what I see?
Every single person paraded at press conferences is lauding these groups.
I'm watching one right now, I have no clue who was speaking but it's cheer-leading all over.
Oh, those are all "Federal" people. right?
Try watching or listening to a state press conference or read the media responses to the federal press conference on social media.
No one, other than themselves that I see, are praising them.
The federal ones have that happy, congratulatory tone.
The local ones are normally more sober.
As far as I know, the effects of social distancing have not been measured so there is not a really good answer. Scientists are pretty sure that China reduced R0 from >3ish to around 0.5 based on all they did. There are also models out there showing that some combinations of practices will reduce contact rates better than others. For example, closing schools does very little by itself, in theory, relative to social distancing. But those are just models of contact rates and their effects of disease transmission, which should follow in some way, are just not known.
So it is being studied a lot, but it remains to be seen which methods will end up being the most effective.
It is coming out that when infections are low, massive testing looks to be far more effective and economical than social distancing, but that is not the road we are on.
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All of these posts, but have the people who were acting like this is no big deal a few weeks ago admitted they were wrong yet or are they in denial still? Anyone still acting like this is just another year of the flu? Our best case scenario is 200k deaths now? We have 10 states that aren’t even practicing social distancing properly, let’s be real the best case scenario is not happening. What are the models saying the likely scenario is? I don’t believe in the best case scenario because the arrogance of people in this country will not allow for that.
As far as I know, the effects of social distancing have not been measured so there is not a really good answer. Scientists are pretty sure that China reduced R0 from >3ish to around 0.5 based on all they did. There are also models out there showing that some combinations of practices will reduce contact rates better than others. For example, closing schools does very little by itself, in theory, relative to social distancing. But those are just models of contact rates and their effects of disease transmission, which should follow in some way, are just not known.
So it is being studied a lot, but it remains to be seen which methods will end up being the most effective.
It is coming out that when infections are low, massive testing looks to be far more effective and economical than social distancing, but that is not the road we are on.
Agreed, its almost impossible to figure out what will happen with various levels of social distancing. That said listen to the interview I posted with Eunice Yoon. She describes all the levels that were imposed on them, and how none of was working until they got to the toughest levels.
We agree that it has made a tremendous contribution.
We both know that the work rests on good data, good samples, assumptions within a narrow and clearly labeled range
Once again, true statements about a cousin once removed from the other problems solved should not be conflated with conclusions about health that do not yet have valid data sets, therefore a wide range of assumptions which generate a wide range of possible outcomes.
Once again its not personal or an attack.
If you cant penetrate your desire for something to be true that as of yet is not - that's a personal desire I'm not going to stand in the way of.
So far, two off the narrow specific situation spoken of posts. Not fooled by polemical distractions.
Is it good data Don? In your experience do sound results come from analyzing bad data? Or do good insights come when you can work with good data? Which?
No more distracting from the core argument. Yes or No or just lets do well the next time we talk?
You have made good contributions on this thread Don. You have a right to be proud of your capabilities.
I submit for your consideration that on this particular subject its rolling an illogical and emotional boulder up hill against logic and any list on the internet about the frequent flaws in conclusions from models.
Lets move on. Again, thank you for your contributions over the last few days. Yours are posts I do make sure to read
And its a huge unknown as of now that affects a lot of predictions
Another report says based on the increase in funeral urns and other markers of a spike in death processing, the estimates of covid deaths in Wuhan 30-60 days ago was between 42 and 48K instead of the 3-4000 reported.
Would having the truth behind reports like that 60 days ago have helped model builders?
That's the point. No one is knocking data science or its underlying technology. One cant. Math works. Always. But bad data and unsteady assumptions fed into good technology renders the combination unsteady, too wide and too early.
Hard to fight the logic.
By Mark Hosenball and Jonathan Landay
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As U.S. spy agencies seek to assemble a precise picture of the world's coronavirus outbreaks, they are finding serious gaps in their ability to assess the situation in China, Russia and North Korea, according to five U.S. government sources familiar with the intelligence reporting.
The agencies also have limited insight into the full impact of the pandemic in Iran, although information on infections and deaths among the ruling class and public is becoming more available on official and social media, two sources said.
The four countries are known by U.S. spy agencies as "hard targets" because of the heavy state controls on information and the difficulty, even in normal times, of collecting intelligence from within their closed leadership circles.
An accurate assessment of those countries' outbreaks would aid U.S. and international efforts to limit the human and economic tolls from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, experts say.
That's a 17X- 19X difference in reported consequences during the lockdown.
Which number is valid? How effective are lockdowns in urban areas? How effective installed early versus late?
So the worlds greatest model can still have an assumption with a 17-19X variation from reported official "deaths" and the spike in the use of funeral urns during the same period?
I don't think its time for sound insights from predictive models instead of compliance with broad strokes common sense until we get enough good data. Hardly a controversial opinion compared to assuming the messenger is attacking predictive modelers
Everytime I see that guy I think of this video. Wait till the end.
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
When the "My Pillow" guy is at the briefing
he re-tooled his factory to produce 50,000 masks per day.
Instead of sarcasm, he's the kind of person at a Federal-level press conference who should be commended.
the level of ridicule he and the administration are taking for this from the "pundits" is typical and perfectly representative.
Spare me, he hasn't retooled anything yet he pledged to do it has not been done yet.
The guy has been sued for deceptive marketing practices in 6 class-action lawsuits and he had to settle a lawsuit for 1M over false health claims. He laid off most of his factory workers 10 months ago after the tax cut. I am willing to bet you won't see one mask come from him
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In comment 14854500 montanagiant said:
Quote:
When the "My Pillow" guy is at the briefing
he re-tooled his factory to produce 50,000 masks per day.
Instead of sarcasm, he's the kind of person at a Federal-level press conference who should be commended.
the level of ridicule he and the administration are taking for this from the "pundits" is typical and perfectly representative.
Spare me, he hasn't retooled anything yet he pledged to do it has not been done yet.
The guy has been sued for deceptive marketing practices in 6 class-action lawsuits and he had to settle a lawsuit for 1M over false health claims. He laid off most of his factory workers 10 months ago after the tax cut. I am willing to bet you won't see one mask come from him
If you say so.
Quote:
In comment 14854508 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14854500 montanagiant said:
Quote:
When the "My Pillow" guy is at the briefing
he re-tooled his factory to produce 50,000 masks per day.
Instead of sarcasm, he's the kind of person at a Federal-level press conference who should be commended.
the level of ridicule he and the administration are taking for this from the "pundits" is typical and perfectly representative.
Spare me, he hasn't retooled anything yet he pledged to do it has not been done yet.
The guy has been sued for deceptive marketing practices in 6 class-action lawsuits and he had to settle a lawsuit for 1M over false health claims. He laid off most of his factory workers 10 months ago after the tax cut. I am willing to bet you won't see one mask come from him
If you say so.
If he does, do you think he's donating them like other companies are doing or do you think he's going to make a profit on them?
He isn't selling a bunch of pillows lately so this is a life jacket for him
After a week (about 11 or 12 days from first symptoms) when I lost sense of smell, chest was still a little tight, and deep breaths felt like breathing in cold air, he brought me back to test me. Positive today, about 17 days from first symptoms. Chest feels much better and breathing is almost normal.
Quote:
In comment 14854525 montanagiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14854508 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14854500 montanagiant said:
Quote:
When the "My Pillow" guy is at the briefing
he re-tooled his factory to produce 50,000 masks per day.
Instead of sarcasm, he's the kind of person at a Federal-level press conference who should be commended.
the level of ridicule he and the administration are taking for this from the "pundits" is typical and perfectly representative.
Spare me, he hasn't retooled anything yet he pledged to do it has not been done yet.
The guy has been sued for deceptive marketing practices in 6 class-action lawsuits and he had to settle a lawsuit for 1M over false health claims. He laid off most of his factory workers 10 months ago after the tax cut. I am willing to bet you won't see one mask come from him
If you say so.
If he does, do you think he's donating them like other companies are doing or do you think he's going to make a profit on them?
He isn't selling a bunch of pillows lately so this is a life jacket for him
No idea, and I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on this topic or any other that I'm not an expert on.
The guy publicly said on national TV he's producing 10,000 masks per day (currently) with the goal to reach 50k per day by Friday.
If he sells them or donates them isn't my business, they're needed and he's filling a need. He runs a small business, who the fuck am I to criticize someone for changing their business model and processes to help during a pandemic even if they are compensated for their efforts or not?
But what I'm not going to do is dredge up old shit and malign the man who is trying to help while others are sitting on their fat asses criticizing him.
If he's scamming everyone, I'm positive someone in the media will find out and plaster it all over the news outlets. Until and if it's proven that he lied, then for me he gets the benefit of the doubt and he's part of the solution, not a person who deserves ridicule. to me.
You can comment or think whatever you want.
A Must Watch - ( New Window )
After a week (about 11 or 12 days from first symptoms) when I lost sense of smell, chest was still a little tight, and deep breaths felt like breathing in cold air, he brought me back to test me. Positive today, about 17 days from first symptoms. Chest feels much better and breathing is almost normal.
Glad you are doing better Matt. Did you have a loss of appetite/mild nausea as well? Slight head ache?
Quote:
In comment 14854529 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14854525 montanagiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14854508 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14854500 montanagiant said:
Quote:
When the "My Pillow" guy is at the briefing
he re-tooled his factory to produce 50,000 masks per day.
Instead of sarcasm, he's the kind of person at a Federal-level press conference who should be commended.
the level of ridicule he and the administration are taking for this from the "pundits" is typical and perfectly representative.
Spare me, he hasn't retooled anything yet he pledged to do it has not been done yet.
The guy has been sued for deceptive marketing practices in 6 class-action lawsuits and he had to settle a lawsuit for 1M over false health claims. He laid off most of his factory workers 10 months ago after the tax cut. I am willing to bet you won't see one mask come from him
If you say so.
If he does, do you think he's donating them like other companies are doing or do you think he's going to make a profit on them?
He isn't selling a bunch of pillows lately so this is a life jacket for him
No idea, and I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on this topic or any other that I'm not an expert on.
The guy publicly said on national TV he's producing 10,000 masks per day (currently) with the goal to reach 50k per day by Friday.
If he sells them or donates them isn't my business, they're needed and he's filling a need. He runs a small business, who the fuck am I to criticize someone for changing their business model and processes to help during a pandemic even if they are compensated for their efforts or not?
But what I'm not going to do is dredge up old shit and malign the man who is trying to help while others are sitting on their fat asses criticizing him.
If he's scamming everyone, I'm positive someone in the media will find out and plaster it all over the news outlets. Until and if it's proven that he lied, then for me he gets the benefit of the doubt and he's part of the solution, not a person who deserves ridicule. to me.
You can comment or think whatever you want.
Your opinion is you own and I can respect that. IMO the companies deserving praise and a free infomercial are the ones making these masks with their own money and donating them. He is not donating them, and as I said this was a lifeline he was just handed. As I pointed out earlier he had to lay off the majority of his people due to tanking pillow sales so making these masks saved his ass.
After a week (about 11 or 12 days from first symptoms) when I lost sense of smell, chest was still a little tight, and deep breaths felt like breathing in cold air, he brought me back to test me. Positive today, about 17 days from first symptoms. Chest feels much better and breathing is almost normal.
Damn Matt, hope this clears up for you quickly. Get well Matt!
You just had to put that damn song in my head!!
Quote:
Tested last Wed. Had mild symptoms. My doctor wouldn't test me the week before but saw me after breathing was a little off more than a couple of days. No fever. Had aches and lethargy for about 3 days and tightness in chest. Oxygen levels were perfect though. EKG was good, lungs sounded good, and all bloodwork came back excellent.
After a week (about 11 or 12 days from first symptoms) when I lost sense of smell, chest was still a little tight, and deep breaths felt like breathing in cold air, he brought me back to test me. Positive today, about 17 days from first symptoms. Chest feels much better and breathing is almost normal.
Glad you are doing better Matt. Did you have a loss of appetite/mild nausea as well? Slight head ache?
@Farzad_MD
· 10h
New York City Emergency Room visits continued the downward trajectory through the weekend!
I'm hoping we see a blunting of the hospitalization rate soon.
We may have turned the corner on infections, though ICU admissions and deaths will not peak for 1-2 weeks. https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/stat
@ScottGottliebMD
More data suggesting that New York could be approaching a peak in new cases. Over the next 7-10 days they could peak and start slowly turning the corner. Mitigation is working in New York.
After a week (about 11 or 12 days from first symptoms) when I lost sense of smell, chest was still a little tight, and deep breaths felt like breathing in cold air, he brought me back to test me. Positive today, about 17 days from first symptoms. Chest feels much better and breathing is almost normal.
Take it easy and feel better
But what I'm not going to do is dredge up old shit and malign the man who is trying to help while others are sitting on their fat asses criticizing him.
He doesn’t run a small business, he runs a struggling huge business with plenty of dubious history. He’s also an active, vocal supporter of a particular POV. He’s by many accounts also a generous guy. But what the hell value he has addressing the nation during a deep crisis is anyone’s guess.
Quote:
In comment 14854500 montanagiant said:
Quote:
When the "My Pillow" guy is at the briefing
he re-tooled his factory to produce 50,000 masks per day.
Instead of sarcasm, he's the kind of person at a Federal-level press conference who should be commended.
the level of ridicule he and the administration are taking for this from the "pundits" is typical and perfectly representative.
Spare me, he hasn't retooled anything yet he pledged to do it has not been done yet.
The guy has been sued for deceptive marketing practices in 6 class-action lawsuits and he had to settle a lawsuit for 1M over false health claims. He laid off most of his factory workers 10 months ago after the tax cut. I am willing to bet you won't see one mask come from him
The shamwow pitchman will be front and center at tomorrow's press conference.
If he does, he *must* take the mic. In times like these the world must know why he nearly got his tongue bit off by his paid companion.
The shamwow pitchman will be front and center at tomorrow's press conference.
You are going to love my nuts
After a week (about 11 or 12 days from first symptoms) when I lost sense of smell, chest was still a little tight, and deep breaths felt like breathing in cold air, he brought me back to test me. Positive today, about 17 days from first symptoms. Chest feels much better and breathing is almost normal.
Get well soon Matt. I am glad that you are feeling better. Prayers to you.
Quote:
Good effort.
I certainly will ratchet up the effort to remember that
You know how you sort of form a vague mental image of BBI posters you’ve never met? I’m getting a strong Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive for Bill2. Always solid.
He works at this, I think. But apparently can't play DT very well.
Quote:
When the "My Pillow" guy is at the briefing
he re-tooled his factory to produce 50,000 masks per day.
Instead of sarcasm, he's the kind of person at a Federal-level press conference who should be commended.
the level of ridicule he and the administration are taking for this from the "pundits" is typical and perfectly representative.
Truer words were never . . . .
Quote:
In comment 14854441 Bill2 said:
Quote:
Good effort.
I certainly will ratchet up the effort to remember that
You know how you sort of form a vague mental image of BBI posters you’ve never met? I’m getting a strong Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive for Bill2. Always solid.
He works at this, I think. But apparently can't play DT very well.
Bill2 is the most normal looking Everyman I've ever met. I, too, thought he would be a cross between chuck Norris and Teddy Roosevelt
After a week (about 11 or 12 days from first symptoms) when I lost sense of smell, chest was still a little tight, and deep breaths felt like breathing in cold air, he brought me back to test me. Positive today, about 17 days from first symptoms. Chest feels much better and breathing is almost normal.
Wow Matt....my prayers are with you. Hope you are on the mend soon.
I'm picturing Wilfred Brimley!!
A business with 1,500 employees, has made the owner a millionaire 300 times over, has had revenue of up to 280M a year, produces 25K products a day, and has a ubiquitous infomercial and advertising footprint is a huge business. It's most definitely not a small business.
Some would say it's bizarre and inappropriate the guy went on a rant during a national press conference about a global pandemic.
We agree that it has made a tremendous contribution.
We both know that the work rests on good data, good samples, assumptions within a narrow and clearly labeled range
Once again, true statements about a cousin once removed from the other problems solved should not be conflated with conclusions about health that do not yet have valid data sets, therefore a wide range of assumptions which generate a wide range of possible outcomes.
Once again its not personal or an attack.
If you cant penetrate your desire for something to be true that as of yet is not - that's a personal desire I'm not going to stand in the way of.
So far, two off the narrow specific situation spoken of posts. Not fooled by polemical distractions.
Is it good data Don? In your experience do sound results come from analyzing bad data? Or do good insights come when you can work with good data? Which?
No more distracting from the core argument. Yes or No or just lets do well the next time we talk?
You have made good contributions on this thread Don. You have a right to be proud of your capabilities.
I submit for your consideration that on this particular subject its rolling an illogical and emotional boulder up hill against logic and any list on the internet about the frequent flaws in conclusions from models.
Lets move on. Again, thank you for your contributions over the last few days. Yours are posts I do make sure to read
Bill. I have no idea what you are taking about, “rolling an illogical and emotional boulder uphill against logic”? Can you use fewer fancy word a please?
Below you go into all the skepticism about China and North Korea. I agree, but at this point the scientific community has a reasonable estimate of many aspects of this disease, other aspects not so much. It is rather easy to model the first phase of the infection with relatively few known parameters. It is the longer term issues that are less certain, how important is immune clearance? How do various mitigations reduce contact rates? How important is spatial clustering? These things are less known, which is why scientists won’t predict equilibria with all these social conditions in flux. It will take time to figure out just how many people followed the guidelines even.
That said, it was pretty simple to debunk certain political statements being made, especially people that thought of this as no big deal.
Your critiques miss the entire relationship between theory and data in science; it is a feedback between theory and data, and how they help each other to gather insights. So it was the first integration.of spatial patterns of cholera with neighborhood water systems that supported the germ theory of disease in the 1800s. It goes way back.
Let me give you just one example. It was possible to estimate the fraction of asymptomatic infections from a simple model, and as some populations became tested in large numbers, it turned out pretty close. Here was a prediction for something for which no data had been collected! That was possible because of well developed theory.
Thanks for the interest.
Once again, no one denied the advances of this kind of science in other cases. As you know.
All the wallpaper is interesting but is not about not the point that was made originally and definitely not an answer to the closed ended questions asked.
This is not engagement or respect. And it is boring.
Please have the last word and I'll keep my thoughts to myself. Thanks and take care.
Over and out.
When you teach do you teach the uses and limitations of each method? Do you ever advocate that more or better context or clean data will produce better research?
Funny, about an hour ago some of the guys whose research you held up earlier in the thread just said tonight that their models would improve in a week or two as more data and context will narrow the wide range of possible outcomes in his models so they produce more USEFUL outcomes.
Love it when real life cooperates in a timely fashion ( paraphrasing Marshall McLuhan and Woody Allen in Annie Hall)
Some how I said the same a few hours ago but according to you did so without any understanding of theory, science or data. Coincidence or more magical thinking about something you couldn't possibly know? Or another losing deflection?
You rose to defend a strawman no one proposed.
Once again, lets move on and talk on another topic down the road.
Good night
In this case
At this time
Not putting down science or theory.
Im putting down the available data and wide range of unknowable context at this time
Maybe re read the exchange from the top with those thoughts in mind... all were clearly labeled so maybe a fresh perspective when re reading brings this to a close?
Will scientists eventually develop a model we can all agree is sound and probable? Yes. Now? Not yet. Too wide a range of outcomes with equal confidence levels.
That's not my opinion...im quoting from Birx, Fauci and several other researchers. You know...the guys who really understand the intersection of science, theory and data.
Yeah, both can be true. He really can be making a positive contribution out of the kindness of his heart by manufacturing a very beneficial item, and his appearance before the nation can also be an effort to promote the benefits of ring kissing.
The points I made just happened to afterwards also be made by several researchers today and Fauci and Birx.
So this is not a personal debate. It never was. Its a point many others agree on about the limits of prediction this case at this time with this degree of available data
It has chosen a candidate but will not begin testing it in people until September.
Moderna, which this month began very early tests of its vaccine candidate in people, also signed a deal with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
The arrangements are part of the federal government’s effort to encourage drugmakers to be able to produce massive amounts of COVID-19 vaccines even before any are proven to work.
Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
In this case
At this time
Not putting down science or theory.
Im putting down the available data and wide range of unknowable context at this time
Maybe re read the exchange from the top with those thoughts in mind... all were clearly labeled so maybe a fresh perspective when re reading brings this to a close?
Will scientists eventually develop a model we can all agree is sound and probable? Yes. Now? Not yet. Too wide a range of outcomes with equal confidence levels.
That's not my opinion...im quoting from Birx, Fauci and several other researchers. You know...the guys who really understand the intersection of science, theory and data.
Bill, correct if I am wrong.
I believe Don said that the early phase of this virus is fairly easily modeled. In fact, at this point, I think we have about all the data we are ever going to get on the early phase. Not sure about Don, but I would define the early phase, every up to but not including the pint at which humans start changing their behavior in various ways. Other than perhaps the truth about China, do you believe there is much more data on the early phase yet to come? Is there likely to be significant deviance from the well established patterns that we have already seen?
I agree that how it ultimately plays out given a wide variety of local circumstances, and various levels of suppression employed, and just dumb luck (good or bad), is unknowable at this point.
This is the data/projections needed to get supplies and tests which have a high turn rate ahead of the projection curves and to the right places. ( Key to effective supply chains). Obvious our health system was not able to flex or reallocate with demand. In a time of scarcity projections matter. Its not just a lack of spending).
Among many other things.
IF you wish to claim that the public got moved because of projections that bad things might happen and worse things could happen absent social distancing because of models - Im not sure.
I think a simple body count, a straight line projection of horror unless we did something and a few celebrities testing positive ( unfortunately that stuff moves a percentage of the population...dumb that its true but it is) broke resistance and passivity. You know that doesn't require revolutionary and cutting edge methods.
Its going to take a while, not really crude projections ( like averaging the outcomes of 500 different assumption based outputs and declaring the average outcome is M but between A and Z possibilities.) to get to the next steps
Meanwhile only in his last post did Don move the goal posts instead of conceding the obvious. And its not close to the first second and third attempts to defend strawman no one claimed. Just bad faith interactions.
This truculence, defensiveness, retreat to prior certifications, finding refuge in the weeds and needy arrogance is why and how many modelers/analysts become ineffective advocates and get turned off as irrelevant.
Then they claimed they are attacked and the victims of dummies. Blame the person questioning, clinging to the goal of certainty instead of the wisdom of saying yeah...I don't know everything. You trust your tools will work all the time...they don't but its not the modeler its GIGO
My original goal was to back folks off expecting too much at this time and then turning on all projectionists and guys who might have helped but fell on their swords with the audience and got turned off.
Its a long fight. Effectiveness matters as much or more than technology
After a week (about 11 or 12 days from first symptoms) when I lost sense of smell, chest was still a little tight, and deep breaths felt like breathing in cold air, he brought me back to test me. Positive today, about 17 days from first symptoms. Chest feels much better and breathing is almost normal.
Matt, I’m sorry to hear that but glad it sounds like the worst is behind you. Take care of yourself!
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Same here. Started working from home 3/18. That’s gone smooth. Trying to stay in a routine. Showering at 8am and alternating from 5 Giants hoodies every day. Kids started home online school yesterday. Wife is also working from home. Other than walks and food stores, we have been home. Weirdly, we’ve gotten into a daily routine.
Oh and beer and my fire pit have come in handy a few nights when the weather has been nice.
If it was not raining so much i think i would be ok, i have been doing the shopping for my house and my in laws so i have at least gone out little bit..
I think the warm weather would help people out a lot, we have a huge jungle gym in the back leave the kids out there for hours
If there was ever a good time for a spring blizzard this is it.
I feel like we are very fortunate we haven't had some of those sparkling March 70-degree days in New England. People are just itching to get outside and most - when they are outside - are not practicing good social distancing behavior.
Once the weather turns, even less people will heed quarantine and social distancing IMO.
My only other ventures are to the grocery store when needed.
If there was ever a good time for a spring blizzard this is it.
I feel like we are very fortunate we haven't had some of those sparkling March 70-degree days in New England. People are just itching to get outside and most - when they are outside - are not practicing good social distancing behavior.
Once the weather turns, even less people will heed quarantine and social distancing IMO.
agreed on that, my neighborhood is a big circle great for walking
Anyone else been ordering in a lot? Between delivery and curbside pickup we have been. Both of our salaries are unaffected and I feel like I'm helping my local restaurants by giving them the business. It feels like seamless was made for times like these.
The task at hand for the average Joe like me is not a difficult one. Stay home and away from other people as much as you possibly can. If this is the worst my family and I experience I consider myself blessed.
Great question. I work from home when I'm not traveling, so for me this is basically business as usual other than no work travel. Which being honest, is sort of a blessing.
however my customers being impacted then impacts my ability to transact business.
The bigger impact is my kids. I have two high school seniors and a 7th grader and our school system was understandably unprepared for this and the kids are anxious, and sad - especially the seniors - as more and more senior activities get canceled and the possibility becomes more and more real that they have already attended their last day of high school.
Prom, graduation, and other things are in jeopardy of being canceled, the yearbook isn't being finalized the way it usually is, senior awards night, class picnic, etc. are all getting canceled.
I posted a lot of this before, but I struggled a little with my instincts as a parent with how they would handle it, so it caught me off guard, and I now understand how sad they are and why they have anxiety (even the 7th grader asked me how they're going to catch up for all the school they missed - math especially).
Big picture with people dying at a frightening pace, they have the right perspective, but as kids they are also IMO ok to be frustrated, sad, anxious and scared. And they are. And as a parent there is no good reassurance we can provide them other than "make the best of it" "this will pass", "follow the CDC, etc. guidance"
Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported - ( New Window )
Same. Exact same, throw in working on the outside landscape of the house (pulling weeds, applying fert, etc) but with the recent rain that has gone out the door.
I'd hope for some better weather to make the above more enjoyable.....I'll admit it's getting a bit depressing. I run a summer semi pro baseball team that starts at the end of May and I am getting the feeling our entire season will be washed away.
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It’s been 2 weeks working from home for me, other than a trip to the grocery store here & there I’ve been hunkering down. I’m definitely going out and walking when I can, but it’s tough.
Great question. I work from home when I'm not traveling, so for me this is basically business as usual other than no work travel. Which being honest, is sort of a blessing.
however my customers being impacted then impacts my ability to transact business.
The bigger impact is my kids. I have two high school seniors and a 7th grader and our school system was understandably unprepared for this and the kids are anxious, and sad - especially the seniors - as more and more senior activities get canceled and the possibility becomes more and more real that they have already attended their last day of high school.
Prom, graduation, and other things are in jeopardy of being canceled, the yearbook isn't being finalized the way it usually is, senior awards night, class picnic, etc. are all getting canceled.
I posted a lot of this before, but I struggled a little with my instincts as a parent with how they would handle it, so it caught me off guard, and I now understand how sad they are and why they have anxiety (even the 7th grader asked me how they're going to catch up for all the school they missed - math especially).
Big picture with people dying at a frightening pace, they have the right perspective, but as kids they are also IMO ok to be frustrated, sad, anxious and scared. And they are. And as a parent there is no good reassurance we can provide them other than "make the best of it" "this will pass", "follow the CDC, etc. guidance"
I have a little perspective on this as 9/11 took place during my senior year. Different crisis, different impact, different timeline, different response but the magnitude was about the same. The idea of never going back to high school so abruptly has to be rough on them but let's hope things improve enough to the point they can walk at graduation.
The sports and the lack of social/extended family gatherings is in fact the worst part.
For me, baseball and Easter Sunday are the hardest things to go without so far.
as for WFH, the lack of commute to NYC and extra family time is nice. The crappy NE weather and inability to do anything on weekends is a real struggle. I was pacing like a caged tiger on Sunday - bad weather, ran out of projects to do, etc... couldn't wait for Monday morning! : )
If there was ever a good time for a spring blizzard this is it.
I feel like we are very fortunate we haven't had some of those sparkling March 70-degree days in New England. People are just itching to get outside and most - when they are outside - are not practicing good social distancing behavior.
Once the weather turns, even less people will heed quarantine and social distancing IMO.
This is how I feel about NY as well. I’m really happy the weather has been this way. I would be going crazy stuck inside if it were a beautiful hot spring day.
@CNBC
· 27m
Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history https://cnb.cx/2Ux5yFS
link - ( New Window )
There was an article in the local news here shaming people going to the park here. It was ridiculous, I actually been going quite a bit because I live right here, but from what I've seen it was almost exclusively couples or a group of 4 or families. People working out and what not as well. The gist of the article was stay in your own neighborhoods, so maybe there is something political going on there to keep people from overwhelming the parks on the waterfronts, but I was actually pretty surprised there weren't more people at Vinoy.
I said it before, but the amount of interaction we have on a daily basis
as far as germ transmission has been so drastically reduced it's pretty hard to fathom. Restaurants, bars, gyms, large events, and work are far and away the highest transmission points.
I've got about a nice 1-1.5 mile stretch of beach/waterfront in my area and people are running and biking daily, making sure to move further from each-other when passing. I haven't seen big crowds of people at all and any "groups" look to be families.
I was shocked how many people were there in a raw, cold-ish March day.
No social distancing, massive crowd, and probably undoing all the good any quarantine measures have done.
So, anecdotally, I get the advice to stay in your own neighborhood if people cannot be diligent at common recreational attractions.
it sounds like some people here are huddled in the their house afraid to even look out the window for fear the virus will see them.
Disinfecting anything coming into household with clorox wipes, social distancing. Welcome to world of the life of Auto/allo transplant recipiants.
I was shocked how many people were there in a raw, cold-ish March day.
No social distancing, massive crowd, and probably undoing all the good any quarantine measures have done.
So, anecdotally, I get the advice to stay in your own neighborhood if people cannot be diligent at common recreational attractions.
PJ provides good news, then taketh away with the above lol
Like a car odometer, I think if the comment count turns over we are in BIG trouble lol
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to Ashland State Park - a small-ish state park with a lake, trails, etc. last weekend (March 22) just to get some fresh air away from home.
I was shocked how many people were there in a raw, cold-ish March day.
No social distancing, massive crowd, and probably undoing all the good any quarantine measures have done.
So, anecdotally, I get the advice to stay in your own neighborhood if people cannot be diligent at common recreational attractions.
PJ provides good news, then taketh away with the above lol
lol, that is just my one anecdotal experience, sounds like others have had better recreational observations than me.
They were setting up a testing site. A call center was established for appointments. They received over 300,000 calls by 1pm of day one. They were given one thousand tests, total. 250 a day for four days. Was told the county expected 6k calls.
My two takeaways
1) people are clearly panicked, how many of those 300+k didn’t even have symptoms but wanted to be tested anyway?
2) at least this one local government has absolutely zero pulse of its citizens and what they are worrying about. Won’t go into how prepared or u prepared they were/are.
Scary thought, they way they defended the situation “could be worse, we could be xxx County, where they did all their testing with expired test kits and had to throw away the results”.
Social media has had people posting information that putting hot coffee or tea in your mouth and the back of the throat will kill the virus.
Idiots.
Being mandatory to go back to work is another story, i'd comply with whatever ends up happening there or another legit reason.
On the flip side, from what I've read of the stimulus bill, it should be a big help for a lot of businesses (and their employees bc avoiding layoffs is a huge incentive driver). Below is a link to the small business loan program, banks are just figuring out how they will be able to implement/handle all the application paperwork to come and hopefully that doesn't turn into a mess - but if my math is correct it's a very generous and helpful program, especially on payroll related costs because the amount of the loan that goes towards qualifying things will be forgiven.
Payroll costs (using the same definition of payroll costs used to determine loan eligibility)
Interest on the mortgage obligation incurred in the ordinary course of business
Rent on a leasing agreement
Payments on utilities (electricity, gas, water, transportation, telephone, or internet)
For borrowers with tipped employees, additional wages paid to those employees
The loan forgiveness cannot exceed the principal.
There are some other payroll tax credit options in the law as well (companies can only choose 1). It also seems like they've been pretty generous with the unemployment but I haven't read about that in as much detail.
Coronavirus Emergency Loans: Guide and Checklist for Small Businesses - ( New Window )
There were also early reports that sauna's killed the virus as well. If you can't trust big sauna who can you trust now a days?
If we're still tracking "celebrity" positives.
Link - ( New Window )
A small victory, but a victory nevertheless.
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CNBC
@CNBC
· 27m
Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history https://cnb.cx/2Ux5yFS
link - ( New Window )
Goldman wants you to buy what they're selling.
There is no way we see the fastest recovery in history from that much of a decline.
“Crazy. Working almost around the clock to develop and implement antibody testing.”
Good person.
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should stick to masks.
Everytime I see that guy I think of this video. Wait till the end. Link - ( New Window )
Meant to thank you for this yesterday. Enjoyed it.
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CNBC
@CNBC
· 27m
Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history https://cnb.cx/2Ux5yFS
link - ( New Window )
Goldman wants you to buy what they're selling.
There is no way we see the fastest recovery in history from that much of a decline.
Goldman: Or vice versa. How does one measure "recovery" and its speed?
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CNBC
@CNBC
· 27m
Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history https://cnb.cx/2Ux5yFS
link - ( New Window )
Goldman wants you to buy what they're selling.
There is no way we see the fastest recovery in history from that much of a decline.
If the economy recovers, it will be almost entirely without support from the middle and lower class.
At least with hurricanes, earthquakes, fires and tsunami's, you get the benefit of the economic boost of rebuild.
With this? None of that, unless you include the mortician and gravedigger bump.
Link - ( New Window )
I think Goldman is likely going to be right. The masses aren’t going to start hoarding what little money they have all of a sudden.
That doesn't mean all simply goes back to normal. With this much of a dislocation, I suspect not everyone is going back to work right away, and there will be some hesitation to buy big ticket items.
But I don't think you have to worry about people spending up to, and beyond, their means.
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CNBC
@CNBC
· 27m
Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history https://cnb.cx/2Ux5yFS
link - ( New Window )
IMHO, Goldman's 15% jobless rate is way too optimistic.
Way.
When it comes to fighting the Coronavirus.
IMO, that means there's a very good chance COVID-19 is going to ricochet from one section of the United States to another, and then back again.
And IMO, Goldman's 15% jobless rate sounds like someone is blowing sunshine up our a**.
Impossible to summarize here, but, particularly if at home with time on your hands, very worthwhile.
“Crazy. Working almost around the clock to develop and implement antibody testing.”
Good person.
Perfect. The guy actually working on this was getting "schooled" by the amateur BBI virologists. That might be the most BBI thing, ever.
Obviously not the end to Walmart and the big guns, but at the local level I can see a lot being invested to make sure community businesses get back on their feet.
I think Goldman is likely going to be right. The masses aren’t going to start hoarding what little money they have all of a sudden.
This is largely incorrect. Spending habits are also based on consumer expectations, which can be looked at using consumer confidence indices.
Given the uncertainty with the disease and the drawing down of savings (and drawing up of debt), people are not going to resume normality for quite some time. Though there isn't much data to pull historical comparisons to, the influenza pandemic had one notable economic benefit: higher wages for areas that were harder hit.
However, unemployment rates persisted for years after the pandemic (controlling for other economic conditions), and there were significant long-term economic impacts.
Essentially, growth may "appear" fast, but is significantly below what it should have been.
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that I had not seen Bill L here for two weeks so I texted him on how he is doing.His response.
“Crazy. Working almost around the clock to develop and implement antibody testing.”
Good person.
Perfect. The guy actually working on this was getting "schooled" by the amateur BBI virologists. That might be the most BBI thing, ever.
LOL. The best was watching Bill get called a troll by a guy who went to the WHO website and quoted figures.
One thing this virus has done has made a lot of people portray themselves as experts in a field that doesn't afford their practitioners the time to post on a message board to flaunt their expertise.
Obviously not the end to Walmart and the big guns, but at the local level I can see a lot being invested to make sure community businesses get back on their feet.
There have been regional episodes of this, but the 3.8 million UI numbers suggest that it is not a nationwide phenomenon.
It also hides the fact that many of the workers are becoming closer to part time than full time, which is going to put added strain on the system in the next few weeks.
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In comment 14854921 pjcas18 said:
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CNBC
@CNBC
· 27m
Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history https://cnb.cx/2Ux5yFS
link - ( New Window )
Goldman wants you to buy what they're selling.
There is no way we see the fastest recovery in history from that much of a decline.
Goldman: Or vice versa. How does one measure "recovery" and its speed?
I'd imagine Goldman is looking at GDP (or per capita GDP).
You going to have a ton of money owed on mortgages and rent alone, add car payments, utilities, etc... all have to get caught up first
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In comment 14855152 Big Al said:
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that I had not seen Bill L here for two weeks so I texted him on how he is doing.His response.
“Crazy. Working almost around the clock to develop and implement antibody testing.”
Good person.
Perfect. The guy actually working on this was getting "schooled" by the amateur BBI virologists. That might be the most BBI thing, ever.
LOL. The best was watching Bill get called a troll by a guy who went to the WHO website and quoted figures.
One thing this virus has done has made a lot of people portray themselves as experts in a field that doesn't afford their practitioners the time to post on a message board to flaunt their expertise.
So true. But it's not just this pandemic, it's practically every topic on here (and probably in the world). It seems like you find people who google something, read wikipedia and then post on the topic as if they researched it or do it for a living.
While the internet does in fact make it so much easier to educate yourself on a topic (vs encyclopedias or the library when I was a kid) that knowledge is really just superficial, yet in this era of headline reading, that qualifies as expert to some people.
Let's use the most basic model just to make a verbal point. Say number of new infections by the pathogen is proportional to Beta*c*S*I, where Beta is the transmission rate per contact (a product of the disease itself), c is the average number of contacts an infected person has, and S is the fraction of susceptible people. Of course, infections are removed from the population by death, and recovery, and the number of Susceptible people might shrink if the recovered people can't get reinfected, but let's just ignore all that; in the early phase of the infection and these are negligible. This is a is a simple thing dating back to the early 80s and forms the basis of so called SIR, SEIR models etc. Very simple, not parameterized or predictive of numbers.
If the current R0 is, say, 3 during the exponential phase (when immune response has not accumulated and social distancing has not kicked in), then it stands to reason that if we cut the number of contacts, c, to one-sixth of what we once had, then R0 should go toward 0.5 (as was achieved in China). For me and in my circle of colleagues and social contacts, I'd guess that we have reduced the number of contacts far below 1/6 of what it once was, so I suspect we are doing this right now.
There are too many complications to even mention, superspreaders, spatial variation in population and infection, etc., but these occur both prior to and after social distancing.
It just strikes me that we should be very optimistic that our current struggles are very likely to work. The virus will come back, but hopefully something like widespread (perhaps serological) testing will allow us to better isolate only high risk individuals.
I hear a lot of skepticism on this board regarding theory, and I am certainly not making any novel statements here, it is just my intuition that what we are doing, as flawed as it is, will very likely work.
Though they cannot confirm that the impact on real economic activity was long-lasting, they think that it's potentially plausible.
But even beyond that, look at the following chart. It's how people spend money. We were spending before this?
Velocity of Money - ( New Window )
“Crazy. Working almost around the clock to develop and implement antibody testing.”
Good person.
Awesome!
You increase the negative impacts AND decrease how much money is spent, and the recovery will be fast?
M1 Velocity - ( New Window )
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
And what I said about people spending money is absolutely true. I'm in my mid-30's and have a bunch of friends with no savings that routinely go out and blow $100 on drinks on a Friday night - that isn't stopping once this is all over. They will go right back to it like nothing happened, I know that for a fact.
The masses will hurt for a while, spending will decrease in certain areas to make up for catching up on some bills and then it will be all systems go. Probably not in 6 months but I can see things getting back together by the holidays assuming this thing doesn't get worse and that we can all go back to work in the next month or so.
We can match anecdotes for days, but the data suggest that the anecdotes swing more to reality for distressed consumer spending over the past few years.
So, even if we take the premise that consumers have had a good time (based on the following graph), when credit debt service payments are 20-percent of GDP, that signals that any recession is going to be painful.
Credit Spending - ( New Window )
That seems to be at odds with your statement about a holiday recovery...
We have flatlined since 2007; seems to suggest some structural consumer spending issues that will exacerbate economic recovery...
Uh Oh. - ( New Window )
I mean, I don't expect once quarantines and social distancing restrictions are lifted that magically business comes back to Jan 2020 levels, but won't some industries (maybe travel and transportation or tourism which seem like good candidates to be hit hard from this) bounce back quickly?
What are the businesses most susceptible to permanently being out of business? Small businesses?
I value your opinion more than a random Goldman article, but it also raises some questions.
Thanks in advance.
I mean, I don't expect once quarantines and social distancing restrictions are lifted that magically business comes back to Jan 2020 levels, but won't some industries (maybe travel and transportation or tourism which seem like good candidates to be hit hard from this) bounce back quickly?
What are the businesses most susceptible to permanently being out of business? Small businesses?
I value your opinion more than a random Goldman article, but it also raises some questions.
Thanks in advance.
It's hard to say. I think large scale tourism and recreational events, as well as the food service industry, will struggle for years. I expect to see new business starts be very high; but that can also indicate a lot of business failures at the same time. There was an existing lack of liquidity for these businesses during the "boom economy" from ~2013 to 2019, and that will only be exacerbated. About 90-percent of small banks have some serious liquidity issues (IIRC). Those finance a lot of small businesses in rural areas.
With Dr. Fauci saying that the virus could re-emerge in the Fall, what happens if this precludes a small fraction of consumers from resuming their normal spending patterns? Imagine if 10-percent of people dramatically reduce their volumes; that could be unemployment losses of several percentage points. Which would be about a third of natural unemployment, which is a very large number.
I think hockey and basketball are likely done, but I felt like there could be some baseball.
If other cities follow suit this could be the death blow. Unless they decide to play with no fans and not consider it a "public event"
@cbctom
· 15m
BREAKING: City of Toronto bans all public events until June 30.
I think hockey and basketball are likely done, but I felt like there could be some baseball.
If other cities follow suit this could be the death blow. Unless they decide to play with no fans and not consider it a "public event"
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Tom Harrington
@cbctom
· 15m
BREAKING: City of Toronto bans all public events until June 30.
With various experts including Fauci talking about a possible second wave, I still wonder if there will be a Football season...
That would really suck.
it sounds like some people here are huddled in the their house afraid to even look out the window for fear the virus will see them.
Too many people think it is a magic elixir or if they have no symptoms then it is fine for them to roam the streets. That's just not how it works.
Too many people think it is a magic elixir or if they have no symptoms then it is fine for them to roam the streets. That's just not how it works.
This. It's out of the box, it's on every continent save antartica ...it's just about slowing it down so hospitals have some realistic chance at managing load.
Too many people think it is a magic elixir or if they have no symptoms then it is fine for them to roam the streets. That's just not how it works.
Agreed. I think it is very possible to reduce pathogen transmission to the extent the virus cant sustain itself, but it is going to crop up in other places and as restrictions are relaxed.
Quote:
sign to me we could lose baseball too.
I think hockey and basketball are likely done, but I felt like there could be some baseball.
If other cities follow suit this could be the death blow. Unless they decide to play with no fans and not consider it a "public event"
Quote:
Tom Harrington
@cbctom
· 15m
BREAKING: City of Toronto bans all public events until June 30.
With various experts including Fauci talking about a possible second wave, I still wonder if there will be a Football season...
That would really suck.
I am wondering that as well...........the second wave is something that has to be considered. And with no vaccine either. Blows.
Hang tough, we’ll get through it but it’s gonna take short term sacrifices across the board.
Quote:
In comment 14855400 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
sign to me we could lose baseball too.
I think hockey and basketball are likely done, but I felt like there could be some baseball.
If other cities follow suit this could be the death blow. Unless they decide to play with no fans and not consider it a "public event"
Quote:
Tom Harrington
@cbctom
· 15m
BREAKING: City of Toronto bans all public events until June 30.
With various experts including Fauci talking about a possible second wave, I still wonder if there will be a Football season...
That would really suck.
I am wondering that as well...........the second wave is something that has to be considered. And with no vaccine either. Blows.
I would think the plan is you beat this down now, then tamp out waves with better testing and contact tracing a la South Korea. We can also hope, and early data suggest, there may be some strong seasonality with would help until vaccines come on line.
It would suck to lose the football season.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-could-travel-27-feet-stay-in-air-for-hours-mit-researcher/ - ( New Window )
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cdc-weighs-advising-everyone-wear-191204620.html - ( New Window )
This is what I alluded to two weeks ago. My information says the CDC has tested up to 6ft but other research has shown further. Not sure how definitive is since 27 feet seems aggressive but those whole 6 feet thing I never really bought.
Quote:
sign to me we could lose baseball too.
I think hockey and basketball are likely done, but I felt like there could be some baseball.
If other cities follow suit this could be the death blow. Unless they decide to play with no fans and not consider it a "public event"
Quote:
Tom Harrington
@cbctom
· 15m
BREAKING: City of Toronto bans all public events until June 30.
With various experts including Fauci talking about a possible second wave, I still wonder if there will be a Football season...
That would really suck.
I really doubt there will be football season (considering the way things have been handled) til 2021
Re-infection rare - ( New Window )
So, if true (and even if not) I don't think there are any definite conclusions yet about how long it can survive on surfaces, how it's transmitted, etc.
bottom line is treatment (and then vaccine) seems like the best option for both healthcare and the economy.
Don't agree that is the lesson of what we have seen so far. And certainly not an unquestioned truth.
China has, as things stand, accomplished a lot more by way of stopping in-country spread than just keeping hospitals above water.
Whatever you might think of Bill Gates, he is no fool and has been studying and speaking on pandemic virus threat for years.
And he certainly is talking about the possibility for stopping spread, as an outcome of coherent and rigorous policy, in his appearance on CNN a few days ago.
Gates - ( New Window )
Hopefully by then they have protocol to treat..
We are not going to sit around for a year
Quote:
that I had not seen Bill L here for two weeks so I texted him on how he is doing.His response.
“Crazy. Working almost around the clock to develop and implement antibody testing.”
Good person.
Perfect. The guy actually working on this was getting "schooled" by the amateur BBI virologists. That might be the most BBI thing, ever.
To be fair though, I think people questioned his this-particular-virus-ain't-at-all-a-big-deal-everyone position, not his experience or knowledge in virology.
Dr. Fauci pushes back on MIT report picked up by every traffic-seeking website that droplets of coronavirus particles could travel 27 feet, calling it wildly misleading and unrealistic.
He said maybe biggest sneeze ever could travel that far, but generally, no this isn't true.
Gov't should prioritize supplies of medical masks to front line workers, with any excess supply then being made available to the public. In the meanwhile, cloth masks, while less effective should be used. I made one. Anyone can make one. The hardest part was threading a needle - I have severe essential tremors. With demand, I'm sure cloth ones will be commercially available soon.
Social distancing is only one tool in the arsenal of stopping airborne transmission.
The downsides include people using masks incorrectly, and people getting a false sense of security and interacting with others in inappropriate ways (ignoring social distancing). Still, on the face of it (har har) it seems a common sense thing.
Gov't should prioritize supplies of medical masks to front line workers, with any excess supply then being made available to the public. In the meanwhile, cloth masks, while less effective should be used. I made one. Anyone can make one. The hardest part was threading a needle - I have severe essential tremors. With demand, I'm sure cloth ones will be commercially available soon.
Social distancing is only one tool in the arsenal of stopping airborne transmission.
The downsides include people using masks incorrectly, and people getting a false sense of security and interacting with others in inappropriate ways (ignoring social distancing). Still, on the face of it (har har) it seems a common sense thing.
If you can, post a picture of the mask you made.
Quote:
I don't get the continued reluctance to advise people to wear masks. It offers some protection from others, and is really helpful in reducing the spread from an infected individual.
Gov't should prioritize supplies of medical masks to front line workers, with any excess supply then being made available to the public. In the meanwhile, cloth masks, while less effective should be used. I made one. Anyone can make one. The hardest part was threading a needle - I have severe essential tremors. With demand, I'm sure cloth ones will be commercially available soon.
Social distancing is only one tool in the arsenal of stopping airborne transmission.
The downsides include people using masks incorrectly, and people getting a false sense of security and interacting with others in inappropriate ways (ignoring social distancing). Still, on the face of it (har har) it seems a common sense thing.
If you can, post a picture of the mask you made.
it's more for social distancing, less for protection from virus spreading.
Same here. I was commuting to work these last 2 years but prior to that worked from home for 7 years or so. I’m used to that part. Wife is somehow wfh as an school OT she’s really just emailing parents and doing some video stuff with some of her kids. My daughter is in kindergarten doing her home school thing. We have our routine.
I miss sports like we all do but I think i miss going out to dinner and movies etc. It’s our 10 year anniversary soon we aren’t going away which sucks.
All in all I’m fine and grateful but this is so fucking weird and scary. I’m not worried about myself from a medical or financial POV but I’m scared for this country and the people that are losing everything. I’ve done my part and stayed the hell home, even when i wasn’t convinced of the severity of this I thing, I erred on the safe side and will continue to do so.
If you can get or make some of these, wearing one doesn't hurt. Looking around, I'd say 99% of the population wears masks.
Watching the briefings from afar is frustrating. Korea began formulating tests on 1/16 and had kits ready for mass distribution a few days later.
America seems to be attacking this thing on a state-by-state basis. That approach isn't going to cut it, especially given that late start.
Good luck, gentlemen.
Any sane policy, regardless of whether cdc recommends public use, should mandate new supplies go from the factory to the front line.
I think they are talking about the new tests than they can get results for right then, in the facility, rather than sending them off to a lab. Much faster and more efficient
use a cotton cloth, such as sacrificing a t shirt, double layer.
Elastic strap is going to be the tough part. I only looked in one store, but the shelf was empty. I scrounged around, and scavenged elastic off a cheap dollar store toy I had bought for the grandkid. cloth ties should work just as well. Instructions for both styles are on the website.
I used needle and thread with a really simple stitch. She ain't purty, but it's functional. If you have a sewing machine, or know someone who does, it should be even easier.
I only wear it when I go into a store (my only exposure to other people), so it is a short wear. I wash it after use. I don't know if wearing long term, like if you're an essential worker, would bring other risks (like accumulation of virus, then trapping it near your nose/mouth).
You should also google proper protocol for wearing and removal of a mask.
mask - ( New Window )
Quote:
When they say x number of tests are being made available, what the Hell does that mean? There is not a special kit; it is a couple of simple nasal swabs sent off to a lab. Granted, there is a capacity at labs to process tests, but there shouldn't be a limit on physical tests.
I think they are talking about the new tests than they can get results for right then, in the facility, rather than sending them off to a lab. Much faster and more efficient
As I understand it the limitation is on the reagents that are needed to do the biochemical analysis.
Maybe that will remove any logjam with testing.
still doesn't seem like it should be "anyone who wants a test can get a test" I feel like only people who either are exhibiting symptoms or those who have been in contact with someone exhibiting symptoms or who has tested positive should be tested.
Meanwhile,
Yonhap News Agency - ( New Window )
Also separately saw numbers on twitter from 1 of the first studies in Italy examining how many more people died in 1 province this year vs. previous years. I suspect like hurricane maria post analysis like this is going to end up providing the most context since testing/co-morbidities are such a continual challenge in getting accurate data.
- 5400 people died this March
- 4500 of which suspected COVID deaths
- 2600 of which officially COVID
- Compared to 900 deaths only, average of last 3 years
(sampling cities representing >50% of local population)
Bill Gates: Here’s how to make up for lost time on covid-19 - ( New Window )
[quote]
Dr. Fauci pushes back on MIT report picked up by every traffic-seeking website that droplets of coronavirus particles could travel 27 feet, calling it wildly misleading and unrealistic.
He said maybe biggest sneeze ever could travel that far, but generally, no this isn't true. [/quote}
Fauci was great on that answer
Quote:
It's getting scarier and scarier.... https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-could-travel-27-feet-stay-in-air-for-hours-mit-researcher/ - ( New Window )
This is what I alluded to two weeks ago. My information says the CDC has tested up to 6ft but other research has shown further. Not sure how definitive is since 27 feet seems aggressive but those whole 6 feet thing I never really bought.
Yes. Never made sense.
A lot of our resident intellectuals really owe rocco8112 an apology.
But kudos to the savvy investors who managed to snag Royal Caribbean at the bargain price of $86....not to worry, you've only lost 65% of your money so far.
Pretty revealing thread - ( New Window )
A lot of our resident intellectuals really owe rocco8112 an apology.
But kudos to the savvy investors who managed to snag Royal Caribbean at the bargain price of $86....not to worry, you've only lost 65% of your money so far.
Pretty revealing thread - ( New Window )
Tremendous read
People are already saying, “we never could have predicted this”. Fucking bullshit. If you paid any attention to the reporting here in the news then you’d have to be a total fucking idiot to have not seen this coming a month ago. And that’s just the information that’s on reddit and Apple News and other publicly available news outlets. There had to be far more detailed items in US intelligence reports.
Hey, paysadaddy bon voyage.
Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.
"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.
A lot of our resident intellectuals really owe rocco8112 an apology.
But kudos to the savvy investors who managed to snag Royal Caribbean at the bargain price of $86....not to worry, you've only lost 65% of your money so far.
Pretty revealing thread - ( New Window )
I remember it well.
A lot of our resident intellectuals really owe rocco8112 an apology.
But kudos to the savvy investors who managed to snag Royal Caribbean at the bargain price of $86....not to worry, you've only lost 65% of your money so far.
Pretty revealing thread - ( New Window )
“Glorified flu” - JFC
Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.
"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.
I'm not making excuses for the US but Iceland had 1/100th of the population we do - of course they should be able to control this better.
Again, people ridiculed him .
Who’s having the last laugh now.
I love Independence Day.
If America needs me to save it, believe me we are up shit's creek without a paddle
With just open source information it was clear this virus was something different and a major threat to this country and the world.
Of those infected, 97 are currently in serious conditions with 76 of them intubated. Overall, 637 people diagnosed with the virus are hospitalized.
The number of medical staff currently in quarantine went down from 3,498 to 3,201, including 701 doctors and 1,138 nurses.
Whole article from this AM's Jerusalem Post (Israel's leading English language news source) linked below.
Once again I note with centralized healthcare and virtual every private doctor or ER or clinic visit logged into a central database of info, almost in real time, Israel's data is worth following.
Also, Israel has a similar population density to NJ or the NYC metro area, and the somewhat outlier communities of the Haredi (strictly Orthodox) and Arab-Israeli communities.
Israeli Coronavirus update - ( New Window )
I've seen video of the spray expelled by talking, and it is quite surprising how much fine mist of spittle is cast about. In the research lab I spent a lifetime working in, we wore masks to prevent the spittle from getting on the semi-conductor chips we worked on.
most people know not to cough or sneeze on others, but we usually directly face others while talking.
Quote:
testing is a huge failure. From Iceland.
Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.
"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.
I'm not making excuses for the US but Iceland had 1/100th of the population we do - of course they should be able to control this better.
Iceland has Universal Healthcare, likely to be a far bigger factor in control of Covid-19 than its size, IMO.
Medicine for profit gets in the way and is a largely outdated system. But it's the US anti-tax way.
Not intended as a political statement, just a darn fact, much like healthcare in the vast majority of the industrial or even civilized world.
Universal Healthcare in Iceland - ( New Window )
@axios
· 21h
BREAKING: The FDA has issued an emergency approval for a testing kit than can detect coronavirus in two minutes. https://axios.com/fda-coronaviru
Link - ( New Window )
it would be good if they added date to indicate the percent of the population in each row.
However, I also don't want to be one of the masses who rush the system and clog it up.
Do we though? I don't think its a simple multiplier by the population. Feeding 100 people isn't 10x harder than feeding 10 people, its significantly higher than that. Add in our geography (population density), poverty, politics, greed, etc and you have a much much more difficult problem than Iceland has.
A black market develops for higher clearance wristbands so you can travel freely.
I am only 1/3 joking.
Quote:
on this topic.
A lot of our resident intellectuals really owe rocco8112 an apology.
But kudos to the savvy investors who managed to snag Royal Caribbean at the bargain price of $86....not to worry, you've only lost 65% of your money so far.
Pretty revealing thread - ( New Window )
Tremendous read
Indeed. Is Payasdaddy still alive?
Quote:
on this topic.
A lot of our resident intellectuals really owe rocco8112 an apology.
But kudos to the savvy investors who managed to snag Royal Caribbean at the bargain price of $86....not to worry, you've only lost 65% of your money so far.
Pretty revealing thread - ( New Window )
“Glorified flu” - JFC
Yep, hopefully lawguy took advantage of the buying opportunity then.
Quote:
Axios
@axios
· 21h
BREAKING: The FDA has issued an emergency approval for a testing kit than can detect coronavirus in two minutes. https://axios.com/fda-coronaviru
Link - ( New Window )
Sounds like this may be an April Fool's Day hoax - my apologies if it is, clearly not my intent, no idea why someone would joke about this and it seemed believable.
A black market develops for higher clearance wristbands so you can travel freely.
I am only 1/3 joking.
I cant remember where they did this. You got a green screen on your phone if you were cleared to get on lublic transport. I'll try to find the source...
Quote:
future where you get a colored wristband denoting your status that you where while out and about and for admission to large public events.
A black market develops for higher clearance wristbands so you can travel freely.
I am only 1/3 joking.
I cant remember where they did this. You got a green screen on your phone if you were cleared to get on lublic transport. I'll try to find the source...
here...
n Coronavirus Fight, China Gives Citizens a Color Code, With Red Flags - ( New Window )
It also helps that, in universal healthcare, because of access issues, people are less likely to go to the hospitals and crowd the system as well, with relatively useless crap.
It also helps that, in universal healthcare, because of access issues, people are less likely to go to the hospitals and crowd the system as well, with relatively useless crap.
I'd love to see figures for the second point because it would seem counter-intutative.
The OCED puts physician visits as generally higher in countries with universal healthcare, presumably because there is no or little additional payment required on a per visit basis. Although the methodology in the report is a bit dubious.
https://international.commonwealthfund.org/stats/annual_physician_visits/
Quote:
future where you get a colored wristband denoting your status that you where while out and about and for admission to large public events.
A black market develops for higher clearance wristbands so you can travel freely.
I am only 1/3 joking.
I cant remember where they did this. You got a green screen on your phone if you were cleared to get on lublic transport. I'll try to find the source...
China and Taiwan have both done this. Germany's exit from lockdown is going to via an immunity certificate. They're ramping up to full scale community testing.
Its all good. Well, the current events aren't but you know what I mean.
I wish this thing wasn't as serious as it is and the threat described was crazy.
Thing is, it wasn't a hard puzzle to put together by following current events. Was it hubris that had all the decision makers and experts discount the fact is was spreading here in the community much earlier?
Quote:
has been effective in certain areas is because they have experience explicitly rationing medical supplies; during times like these, their experience offers some unique benefits, over the more fragmented systems.
It also helps that, in universal healthcare, because of access issues, people are less likely to go to the hospitals and crowd the system as well, with relatively useless crap.
I'd love to see figures for the second point because it would seem counter-intutative.
The OCED puts physician visits as generally higher in countries with universal healthcare, presumably because there is no or little additional payment required on a per visit basis. Although the methodology in the report is a bit dubious.
https://international.commonwealthfund.org/stats/annual_physician_visits/
As someone that had some extensive training on this, people do go to the doctor more, but it keeps costs down because people don't develop as many serious expensive conditions by getting preventative care.
What kicker was alluding to is that hospitals are inundated with people who should be seeing a GP, but flood emergency rooms because they don't have insurance.
My nephew is an emergency room doctor in Southwestern state .. he said this past couple of weeks the ER has actually be completely empty
because the people with no health insurance who use ER as their primary care doctor are afraid to go to ER because of COVID19
hopefully this crisis will be an opportunity to reevaluate the current US health system and health insurance situation .
Quote:
future where you get a colored wristband denoting your status that you where while out and about and for admission to large public events.
A black market develops for higher clearance wristbands so you can travel freely.
I am only 1/3 joking.
I cant remember where they did this. You got a green screen on your phone if you were cleared to get on lublic transport. I'll try to find the source...
you mean this? Bill Gates' pet project, global "digital ID" - ID2020 link related.
Sign up now for your "certification mark". Yes - they said "mark".
Link - ( New Window )
A lot of our resident intellectuals really owe rocco8112 an apology.
But kudos to the savvy investors who managed to snag Royal Caribbean at the bargain price of $86....not to worry, you've only lost 65% of your money so far.
Pretty revealing thread - ( New Window )
Thanks for that, pretty crazy to think how much has changed in one month. Rocco was on the money.
Also, I've been looking at https://covid19.healthdata.org/ on a daily basis for the last couple of days. It's been a little scary to see the projected death total through July jump up from 82,000 to 94,000 over 3 days.
April 2020 is going to be ugly. A range of 30-100k projected deaths in the upcoming month according to that site. The fact that losing 30k in a month would be considered a "win" is just mind blowing.
Just found out my co-worker's father passed away from this yesterday. Just brutal that so many families will have to wait for months to hold funerals due to this.
Not looking to get in a big debate about it from a political standpoint, but it seems like this Coronavirus outbreak (and probably pandemics in general) is more of a response/logistical issue than form of healthcare.
Otherwise how can you explain the Italy and Spain fatality rates vs US (realizing none of us is out of the woods yet).
IOW I don't think any healthcare system is in any way better equipped to handle a pandemic like this one. At best you have to try and flatten the curve otherwise private or universal - your healthcare system is going to be overrun and people are going to die in large quantities.
Even in the US:
If you have the symptoms, take care of yourself regardless of what the test says.
Link - ( New Window )
That could become very problematic very quickly.
I wonder how all these out of network treatments are going to be handled by insurance companies? Will people who catch the virus be bankrupted by it?
Not looking to get in a big debate about it from a political standpoint, but it seems like this Coronavirus outbreak (and probably pandemics in general) is more of a response/logistical issue than form of healthcare.
Otherwise how can you explain the Italy and Spain fatality rates vs US (realizing none of us is out of the woods yet).
IOW I don't think any healthcare system is in any way better equipped to handle a pandemic like this one. At best you have to try and flatten the curve otherwise private or universal - your healthcare system is going to be overrun and people are going to die in large quantities.
I can see where it would alleviate some of the strain on the ERs. There are a lot of unemployed in our country now, and with our system that means a lot of people without insurance. If you have symptoms that means you either stay home or go to an emergency room if you want treatment, even if you don't necessarily need emergency level service.
Quote:
has been effective in certain areas is because they have experience explicitly rationing medical supplies; during times like these, their experience offers some unique benefits, over the more fragmented systems.
It also helps that, in universal healthcare, because of access issues, people are less likely to go to the hospitals and crowd the system as well, with relatively useless crap.
I'd love to see figures for the second point because it would seem counter-intutative.
The OCED puts physician visits as generally higher in countries with universal healthcare, presumably because there is no or little additional payment required on a per visit basis. Although the methodology in the report is a bit dubious.
https://international.commonwealthfund.org/stats/annual_physician_visits/
Hi BBS.
It's not total doctor's visits. It's hospital visits. Because care is explicitly rationed, the ER is not the primary source of care as it is for the under-insured (or uninsured), the same as it is here.
In America, the average number of ER visits is one visit for EACH person every other years. That's an extraordinary figure. Same numbers aren't available publicly for other countries; it's restricted use, so I can't say what they are, but they are an order of magnitude lower.
@business
BREAKING: China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report https://trib.al/m5xhKRh
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
Bloomberg
@business
BREAKING: China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report https://trib.al/m5xhKRh
Link - ( New Window )
No surprise.
I'll also not be surprised to learn that most jurisdictions, at least initially, tend to conceal.
In response to pj explicitly, a potential benefit is rationing occurs explicitly in universal care (it's a hallmark of the system), and so in cases where a pandemic ramps up, they are likely better early on in knowing the strain on the system, and how it will impact routine medical supplies. It isn't foolproof (because they may still try to save everyone, or may panic), but it can happen.
The second is who is considered primary care. You have a lot of people in the U.S. who consider the ER as their primary doctor. In universal care, this is much less likely (some countries, impossible). So, in the initial stages, you have a lot of false positives flooding the ER, creating a potential breeding ground, but also putting additional strain on the system.
Quote:
In comment 14855963 kicker said:
Quote:
has been effective in certain areas is because they have experience explicitly rationing medical supplies; during times like these, their experience offers some unique benefits, over the more fragmented systems.
It also helps that, in universal healthcare, because of access issues, people are less likely to go to the hospitals and crowd the system as well, with relatively useless crap.
I'd love to see figures for the second point because it would seem counter-intutative.
The OCED puts physician visits as generally higher in countries with universal healthcare, presumably because there is no or little additional payment required on a per visit basis. Although the methodology in the report is a bit dubious.
https://international.commonwealthfund.org/stats/annual_physician_visits/
Hi BBS.
It's not total doctor's visits. It's hospital visits. Because care is explicitly rationed, the ER is not the primary source of care as it is for the under-insured (or uninsured), the same as it is here.
In America, the average number of ER visits is one visit for EACH person every other years. That's an extraordinary figure. Same numbers aren't available publicly for other countries; it's restricted use, so I can't say what they are, but they are an order of magnitude lower.
I believe a leading explanation would be the lack of affordable health care options so that too many people are using ER for primary care reasons.
Successes in certain countries are probably going to come down to a few key factors: citizen compliance, socioeconomics, religiosity, cultural factors, and history of disease.
Not looking to get in a big debate about it from a political standpoint, but it seems like this Coronavirus outbreak (and probably pandemics in general) is more of a response/logistical issue than form of healthcare.
Otherwise how can you explain the Italy and Spain fatality rates vs US (realizing none of us is out of the woods yet).
IOW I don't think any healthcare system is in any way better equipped to handle a pandemic like this one. At best you have to try and flatten the curve otherwise private or universal - your healthcare system is going to be overrun and people are going to die in large quantities.
If you have a well operating healthcare model that allows for appropriate levels of care for more of the population, you can:
1) Diagnose and treat underlying issues that in combination become lethal when combined with an emerging issue. The rate of under treated asthma among the poor for instance might have an impact in death rate of Covid (this is a guess as an example).
2) Too many people use the ER for non-emergency issues because of their lack of access to preventative care, draining resources and exposing themselves to the infected.
This is true now and in more normal times. People who should have seen a primary for something small either just go to the ER, or wait and become more sick.
Quote:
In comment 14855974 bigbluescot said:
Quote:
In comment 14855963 kicker said:
Quote:
has been effective in certain areas is because they have experience explicitly rationing medical supplies; during times like these, their experience offers some unique benefits, over the more fragmented systems.
It also helps that, in universal healthcare, because of access issues, people are less likely to go to the hospitals and crowd the system as well, with relatively useless crap.
I'd love to see figures for the second point because it would seem counter-intutative.
The OCED puts physician visits as generally higher in countries with universal healthcare, presumably because there is no or little additional payment required on a per visit basis. Although the methodology in the report is a bit dubious.
https://international.commonwealthfund.org/stats/annual_physician_visits/
Hi BBS.
It's not total doctor's visits. It's hospital visits. Because care is explicitly rationed, the ER is not the primary source of care as it is for the under-insured (or uninsured), the same as it is here.
In America, the average number of ER visits is one visit for EACH person every other years. That's an extraordinary figure. Same numbers aren't available publicly for other countries; it's restricted use, so I can't say what they are, but they are an order of magnitude lower.
I believe a leading explanation would be the lack of affordable health care options so that too many people are using ER for primary care reasons.
Affordability is one; the neutering of the mandate is another; a third is what people are used to. People don't like going to the doctors, so if you were brought to the ER as a child for common ailments, you are likely to continue that behavior (and therefore pass it down).
1. Significant health insurance company competition; many potential insurance funds.
2. Hospitals/healthcare providers ARE NOT government employees.
3. Near (or full) universal coverage.
4. Cheap generics, expensive name brand prescription drugs (mirrors the U.S. system). However, smaller doses per drug.
5. Gatekeeping (HMO model) for primary care.
Italy dropped the ball, was not quick enough to lock down and paid severely. That said, they WERE able to contain it largely to the north.
As kicker pointed out, Universal Coverage DOES ensure people use their primary instead of the ER, so there would certainly be some impact there, but really - if our government had been honest from the outset, warning people in January and taking critical action in February, much of this could have been avoided.
China is hardly recognized as a standout nation in caring about their populations general health. So when I saw them Lock Down over 780 MILLION people, I knew it was gonna get really ugly and acted in kind.
I'm a strong proponent of Universal Healthcare, but I don't think the CoVid pandemic is a good place for the discussion - not right now, anyway. By the time it is worthy of debate, later this year, who knows what this will all look like?
Fingers crossed that though America reacted late, that our reactions do get this monster in check.
So, for instance, papers (including some of my own) have had Italy ranking 8/30, 18/30, 7/30, 7/30, 2/30, 11/30, 1/30, and 6/30. This is for the 1990's. In 2000, there was noticeable deterioration in their rankings: 12/25, 21/25, 15/25, 13/25, 9/25.
The only thing we can say for certainty is that Italy's healthcare system has gotten considerably worse over time; while most countries (including the U.S.) are about as equally effective today as they were 15 years ago, Italy's is about 20% less effective.
So, for instance, papers (including some of my own) have had Italy ranking 8/30, 18/30, 7/30, 7/30, 2/30, 11/30, 1/30, and 6/30. This is for the 1990's. In 2000, there was noticeable deterioration in their rankings: 12/25, 21/25, 15/25, 13/25, 9/25.
The only thing we can say for certainty is that Italy's healthcare system has gotten considerably worse over time; while most countries (including the U.S.) are about as equally effective today as they were 15 years ago, Italy's is about 20% less effective.
So, for instance, papers (including some of my own) have had Italy ranking 8/30, 18/30, 7/30, 7/30, 2/30, 11/30, 1/30, and 6/30. This is for the 1990's. In 2000, there was noticeable deterioration in their rankings: 12/25, 21/25, 15/25, 13/25, 9/25.
The only thing we can say for certainty is that Italy's healthcare system has gotten considerably worse over time; while most countries (including the U.S.) are about as equally effective today as they were 15 years ago, Italy's is about 20% less effective.
How does Spain rank Kicker? I've read they have one of the world's best, but they too have a much higher fatality rate here (so far) than the US? France too I think.
I agree the response (lock down, testing, distancing, treatment, etc.) may be more appropriate a metric that leads to "success" combating a pandemic than healthcare delivery type, and some evidence is the varying nature of results.
Do you know how Spain ranks in general?
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all of them. And most of those studies were from the 1990's. The problem with Italy is that it performs well on a few metrics, very poorly on others, and is absolutely inconsistent in reporting data on a regular basis.
So, for instance, papers (including some of my own) have had Italy ranking 8/30, 18/30, 7/30, 7/30, 2/30, 11/30, 1/30, and 6/30. This is for the 1990's. In 2000, there was noticeable deterioration in their rankings: 12/25, 21/25, 15/25, 13/25, 9/25.
The only thing we can say for certainty is that Italy's healthcare system has gotten considerably worse over time; while most countries (including the U.S.) are about as equally effective today as they were 15 years ago, Italy's is about 20% less effective.
How does Spain rank Kicker? I've read they have one of the world's best, but they too have a much higher fatality rate here (so far) than the US? France too I think.
I agree the response (lock down, testing, distancing, treatment, etc.) may be more appropriate a metric that leads to "success" combating a pandemic than healthcare delivery type, and some evidence is the varying nature of results.
Do you know how Spain ranks in general?
Spain is consistently in the top 5, regardless of how you look at it.
France is like Italy, but much more dispersed outcomes, which means that they may excel in one or two areas, but their focus on those precludes success in everything else.
Better methods also look at how the effectiveness of the system has changed over time.
If we look at countries who have shown remarkable consistency in delivery, these are:
Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, and...the US.
Pretty much all countries have seen a reduction in effectiveness over time (France is bad, South Korea is bad). The US is the only country who has seen a slight (very slight, and largely no different from the previous ones mentioned) improvement.
Germany scores early against virus - ( New Window )
It is important to look back at some point, see what failed/what could have improved and fix it.
I also don't think it's terribly productive to compare the response of the US with countries so different from the US as a country they're more equivalent to a large state. In terms of geographical size, population, border, form of government, even culture. Logistics are impacted by details.
I'm sure there will be a ton of wasteful congressional activities, maybe even investigations about this, but I hope they wait.
There are some posters here that I think are highly biased and present facts and figures as if they are some sort of objective authority. And it leads to misinformation or at the very least biased information.
I think this is all fine and well. I happen to really enjoy reading BBI and I especially enjoy reading opinions and points of view other than my own. It’s the strength of BBI.
But, as always on the internet, people should remember that much of the expert opinion offered up here is likely to be as subjective and as accurate as scouting reports and mock drafts.
My question (and it was a question) was if that's true why don't we see great results in places like Spain, Italy, the UK for example (who I believe have solid to model level (Universal) healthcare systems.
My point was I view the logistical response from organizations like (in the US - I imagine other countries have similar orgs) FEMA (and the state EMA's) CDC, HHS, state and local governments, etc. are more impactful than the healthcare delivery system.
Sorry, if I struck a nerve.
Are the successes against the virus due to factors that we cannot easily control or change (universal healthcare, culture), or are there things that COULD be effective that we could change quickly (social distancing, guidelines for shelter in places, etc.).
it would be good if they added date to indicate the percent of the population in each row.
Do you mind posting a link to this? Gracias.
I keep wondering when people are going to get angry at China for unleashing this terror on the earth. The fact is, their under reporting and suppression of information and total mishandling of this virus has made this a global problem of huge proportions when it almost certainly could have been a lot less bad. And the virus also happened to start in China, and again, almost certainly, as a matter of poor regulation of wet markets.
Obviously not the time, as we’re all trying to stay alive, but at some point people are gonna start to ask questions that China isn’t going to want to answer. Not really sure where all that goes.
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from Axios.
it would be good if they added date to indicate the percent of the population in each row.
Do you mind posting a link to this? Gracias.
Link below, sorry
link - ( New Window )
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Just passed China in the total number of COVID cases. China’s numbers are a complete joke.
I keep wondering when people are going to get angry at China for unleashing this terror on the earth. The fact is, their under reporting and suppression of information and total mishandling of this virus has made this a global problem of huge proportions when it almost certainly could have been a lot less bad. And the virus also happened to start in China, and again, almost certainly, as a matter of poor regulation of wet markets.
Obviously not the time, as we’re all trying to stay alive, but at some point people are gonna start to ask questions that China isn’t going to want to answer. Not really sure where all that goes.
if you go on the WSJ site, China now has (trolls) people posting and saying this is an American virus and we are to blame...
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In comment 14855892 pjcas18 said:
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from Axios.
it would be good if they added date to indicate the percent of the population in each row.
Do you mind posting a link to this? Gracias.
Link below, sorry link - ( New Window )
It does make sense in generalities though. Blue collar jobs are usually in more customer service type roles that need to be done onsite or outside the home. White collar jobs are more internal/b2b, and can more easily be adapted to working at home. Of course I am generalizing a lot of things here, but I am not surprised by this
...and they have a combined 82K infected?!
How can anyone believe those numbers?
Link - ( New Window )
- Deprioritize Root Cause Analysis (aka blame)
- Recruit the smallest group of experts and then broaden as needed
- Provide crisp, frequent and honest status updates, even when it's "we don't know anything yet"
- Work through the playbook of knowns and unknowns with an eye on resolving the issue as fast as possible
- Double verify adjustments to not dig a deeper hole
- Resist the urge to take credit for solutions
- Assign a responsible party to collect the evidence from the aftermath to initiate RCA
...and they have a combined 82K infected?!
How can anyone believe those numbers?
I can see China being able to cover up there true numbers of sick and dead but how has India not imploded yet?
Which I presume is an advantage in combating any pandemic.
Good job by those "debating" the issue to keep it clean and politics free.
For sure there are advantages either way, and my wife and I have always paid personal funds to our medical provider (one of 3 operating under the official state mandates) to upgrade to the highest level of care possible, for us and our daughters also been aided by close friends
who are well connected Doctors.
So it's a combo of state and private insurance and "protection" that we've received great care there.
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Just passed China in the total number of COVID cases. China’s numbers are a complete joke.
I keep wondering when people are going to get angry at China for unleashing this terror on the earth. The fact is, their under reporting and suppression of information and total mishandling of this virus has made this a global problem of huge proportions when it almost certainly could have been a lot less bad. And the virus also happened to start in China, and again, almost certainly, as a matter of poor regulation of wet markets.
Obviously not the time, as we’re all trying to stay alive, but at some point people are gonna start to ask questions that China isn’t going to want to answer. Not really sure where all that goes.
Not just China, but you have to wonder (at least I do) the real role of the WHO and the international community.
Not to mention the US media outlets who simply ran with many of these stories from China without fact checking in any way, when they hold their own Government to a MUCH higher standard.
This tweet from the WHO was on January 14th.
Misrepresented implies intent. I have no idea their intent. But it's wrong. And my guess is they simply took China's word on it.
It's not like they simply stopped doing their job/research after Tweeting that........
Still I get the point. I guess they simply shouldn't have Tweeted anything?
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Is there evidence or corresponding reporting that indicates WHO misrepresented their perspective in that January update?
Misrepresented implies intent. I have no idea their intent. But it's wrong. And my guess is they simply took China's word on it.
So you believe the preliminary findings from the Chinese did find there was evidence?
@isaacstonefish
·
Mar 29
No big deal, just Wuhan residents estimating that 46,800 people in their city died from the virus, instead of the government's figure of roughly 2,500 people.
link - ( New Window )
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In comment 14856381 christian said:
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Is there evidence or corresponding reporting that indicates WHO misrepresented their perspective in that January update?
Misrepresented implies intent. I have no idea their intent. But it's wrong. And my guess is they simply took China's word on it.
So you believe the preliminary findings from the Chinese did find there was evidence?
I obviously don't know for sure, but yes, I believe China probably knew, and covered it up.
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In comment 14856386 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 14856381 christian said:
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Is there evidence or corresponding reporting that indicates WHO misrepresented their perspective in that January update?
Misrepresented implies intent. I have no idea their intent. But it's wrong. And my guess is they simply took China's word on it.
So you believe the preliminary findings from the Chinese did find there was evidence?
I obviously don't know for sure, but yes, I believe China probably knew, and covered it up.
And I would concur with this.
Under no circumstances should their government be trusted on this issue.
I find it very hard to believe by January 14th they did not know the virus passed human to human.
On micro level can you see the parallels between your take and what you think those orgs did?
Personally, I'm very pro fact-based, scrutinized communications from public, private, and journalistic sources.
On micro level can you see the parallels between your take and what you think those orgs did?
Personally, I'm very pro fact-based, scrutinized communications from public, private, and journalistic sources.
So you believe the WHO article from January 14th was fact checked and true?
Either you do or you don't.
If you do, then you've already tossed your grandiose standards "fact-based, scrutinized communications from public, private, and journalistic sources." in the shitter.
No one at the CDC or involved in the National Security Apparatus of the US thought that China might be underplaying numbers when they shutdown their Economy and put 700 million on some type of lockdown?
No one asked, what the fuck happened over there to cause this reaction from the CCP?
Then when all of a sudden it was ripping through Iran, started up in Italy, this raised no alarm bells? It occurred to no one this thing was a different beast and that it was likely already spreading in the community in the USA? In NYC or LA and other major hubs of international travel?
That is my biggest question, with just open source info from in the internet and good international media it was possible to peg this threat to the USA.
Agree with you 1000%
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gov'ts knew of the scope of the virus in China. The shut down happened pretty quickly before the outbreak was daily news. That didn't happen because a few cruise ships were in quarantine and official numbers made China look contained. Italy was a hotspot, but the world was mostly quiet when the shutdown started to be implemented. It takes time for gov'ts to spring into action. Back channels were probably lighting up the switchboard advising world leaders the catastrophe being far worse than official numbers.
No one at the CDC or involved in the National Security Apparatus of the US thought that China might be underplaying numbers when they shutdown their Economy and put 700 million on some type of lockdown?
No one asked, what the fuck happened over there to cause this reaction from the CCP?
Then when all of a sudden it was ripping through Iran, started up in Italy, this raised no alarm bells? It occurred to no one this thing was a different beast and that it was likely already spreading in the community in the USA? In NYC or LA and other major hubs of international travel?
That is my biggest question, with just open source info from in the internet and good international media it was possible to peg this threat to the USA.
Anyone paying attention to the data since it started could tell it was going to be a big problem anywhere it reached.
It really doesn't matter if China under reported, they definitely did. Even with the under reporting it was huge fucking issue there.
THE DATA DOES NOT LIE!
Even if they under reported it was still a big problem!
Here, here!
This isn't political at all and what they are doing is disgusting and quite frankly dangerous. How people can act like this sickening. Clay Travis in particular is a complete moron and reading his replies on twitter is terrifying....
Either you do or you don't.
If you do, then you've already tossed your grandiose standards "fact-based, scrutinized communications from public, private, and journalistic sources." in the shitter.
I haven’t done any reading or research on the veracity of their communications, have you? Can you provide evidence to your claim?Without corresponding or corroborating evidence I find it at best unhelpful and it worst disruptive to the conversation.
You can kind of see the irony of you criticizing the institution for producing what you think is an unverified claim, with your own unverified claim, right?
I find quite
This isn't political at all and what they are doing is disgusting and quite frankly dangerous. How people can act like this sickening. Clay Travis in particular is a complete moron and reading his replies on twitter is terrifying....
Isnt that all media? they are profiting off this more than anyone, the more negative the story the mlre attention they get...
they are loving this right now
The public's responsibility is to seek out reputable reporting, and most importantly accepting that reporting even if doesn't correspond with your preconceptions or wishes.
you dont think the media is enjoying higher ratings?
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So you believe the WHO article from January 14th was fact checked and true?
Either you do or you don't.
If you do, then you've already tossed your grandiose standards "fact-based, scrutinized communications from public, private, and journalistic sources." in the shitter.
I haven’t done any reading or research on the veracity of their communications, have you? Can you provide evidence to your claim?Without corresponding or corroborating evidence I find it at best unhelpful and it worst disruptive to the conversation.
You can kind of see the irony of you criticizing the institution for producing what you think is an unverified claim, with your own unverified claim, right?
I find quite
I'm not testifying in a court of law or filling out an affidavit. I'm giving an opinion.
I believe based on the information readily accepted as fact to this point, it helps justify my opinion as fact.
If you do not, great this is America you are entitled to your opinion and you can voice it, you think on January 14th no one knew if the virus could be transmitted person to person - two months after the first case was diagnosed.
Congratulations on your beliefs.
If you find my post unhelpful scroll to the next one.
Last night, the local station opened by back slapping themselves over the Facts, not Fear platform, then they ran a story from a Charlottean in Italy and asked her describe the kind of conditions she's living in and what she's seeing from the city she's in. They ran a story showing people at Freedom Park outside saying they should be indoors, and they ran two stories of projected deaths/sicknesses, with the explanation that half of Carolinians "could" get infected with the virus by year's end.
"Could" doesn't sound like facts to me
The public's responsibility is to seek out reputable reporting, and most importantly accepting that reporting even if doesn't correspond with your preconceptions or wishes.
Very hard to find the good jounalists right now, very hard to watch..
This thread is more informative even if we argue than anything in the news
they did the same thing in chicago
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Yeah it's pretty sick what thoughts you can project onto someone else.
you dont think the media is enjoying higher ratings?
Some people that work in media have died already, some have tested positive.
So no, I doubt 'the media' is loving this.
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There is plenty of good reporting being done across a number of publications.
The public's responsibility is to seek out reputable reporting, and most importantly accepting that reporting even if doesn't correspond with your preconceptions or wishes.
Very hard to find the good jounalists right now, very hard to watch..
This thread is more informative even if we argue than anything in the news
it shouldn't be the public's responsibility to ferret out journalistic integrity.
it used to be reliable.
This era of social media, unverified reporting, and journalistic "activism" makes trusting anything you read hard, but it should not be the public's responsibility. That's where confirmation bias takes over and grows exponentially.
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In comment 14856528 christian said:
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There is plenty of good reporting being done across a number of publications.
The public's responsibility is to seek out reputable reporting, and most importantly accepting that reporting even if doesn't correspond with your preconceptions or wishes.
Very hard to find the good jounalists right now, very hard to watch..
This thread is more informative even if we argue than anything in the news
it shouldn't be the public's responsibility to ferret out journalistic integrity.
it used to be reliable.
This era of social media, unverified reporting, and journalistic "activism" makes trusting anything you read hard, but it should not be the public's responsibility. That's where confirmation bias takes over and grows exponentially.
A newspaper owner started the Spanish American war.
The good ole days weren't as reliable as you remember.
It's always been the public's responsibility to seek and find reliable sources and protest bad sources.
There is certainly more information disseminated as the tools to communicate widely are easier to access.
If a source of information proves to be bad, ignore. There are absolutely good sources out there, as there have always been too.
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In comment 14856532 nygiants16 said:
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In comment 14856528 christian said:
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There is plenty of good reporting being done across a number of publications.
The public's responsibility is to seek out reputable reporting, and most importantly accepting that reporting even if doesn't correspond with your preconceptions or wishes.
Very hard to find the good jounalists right now, very hard to watch..
This thread is more informative even if we argue than anything in the news
it shouldn't be the public's responsibility to ferret out journalistic integrity.
it used to be reliable.
This era of social media, unverified reporting, and journalistic "activism" makes trusting anything you read hard, but it should not be the public's responsibility. That's where confirmation bias takes over and grows exponentially.
A newspaper owner started the Spanish American war.
The good ole days weren't as reliable as you remember.
Fine, I'll amend it to "it should be reliable", point was it should not be on the "public" to determine reliable journalistic sources - especially among major media outlets.
I believe based on the information readily accepted as fact to this point, it helps justify my opinion as fact.
If you do not, great this is America you are entitled to your opinion and you can voice it, you think on January 14th no one knew if the virus could be transmitted person to person - two months after the first case was diagnosed.
So essentially you have no supporting evidence to back up the broad claims you made in your first post. Got it.
Not to mention the US media outlets who simply ran with many of these stories from China without fact checking in any way, when they hold their own Government to a MUCH higher standard.
I keep wondering when people are going to get angry at China for unleashing this terror on the earth. The fact is, their under reporting and suppression of information and total mishandling of this virus has made this a global problem of huge proportions when it almost certainly could have been a lot less bad. And the virus also happened to start in China, and again, almost certainly, as a matter of poor regulation of wet markets.
Perhaps we will see some anger towards and demands of accountability from the Chinese. But given current trends on our own soil, are we in a position to lecture them about how they should have more regulation?
Yeah I saw that actually. Popped up on my Pixel newsfeed. I mean I'm not surprised. I got food poisoning about 5 times in two years. After the first time it went through, they took away Sick In Rack chits and made it up to your chain. They were just losing too much man power at one time. I will say this, if it was as contagious as everyone made it to be. I'm surprised not everyone on that ship has it. I mean they might, just might be asymptomatic. People on that ship are reasonably safe though, except for the Chiefs that skirt by on weight standards.
On November 19 the first case of coronavirus was diagnosed in Wuhan China.
two months later, January 14th, China said in a report to the WHO they have no evidence that the virus was transmitted person to person. The WHO ran with that. I find fault with both - as my post indicated i do.
Prior to then (mid December) we have reports of at least two Chinese doctors on the ground in Wuhan who attempted to turn whistle blower and sound the alarms (Dr. Li Wenliang and Dr Ai Fen) that a) this is worse than is being reported and b) we're not getting the truth and c) they see a lot of indications the virus is SARS like (meaning it does transmit person to person)
One of those doctors is dead (of Coronavirus) and the other is "missing" and several other experts in China who has spoken out in criticism of their handling have been "silenced"
Furthermore, we now know via US intelligence reports that China has lied with their reporting on this across the board from number of cases, deaths, and recoveries.
Using my brain, I can conclude yes, at the time the article was published China did in fact know the virus was transmitted person to person. And it's incontrovertible that the WHO tweeted out that information.
You need more proof go to Wuhan and dig it up yourself, at this point you are being argumentative for some reason or willfully ignorant. Take your pick.
On November 19 the first case of coronavirus was diagnosed in Wuhan China.
two months later, January 14th, China said in a report to the WHO they have no evidence that the virus was transmitted person to person. The WHO ran with that. I find fault with both - as my post indicated i do.
Prior to then (mid December) we have reports of at least two Chinese doctors on the ground in Wuhan who attempted to turn whistle blower and sound the alarms (Dr. Li Wenliang and Dr Ai Fen) that a) this is worse than is being reported and b) we're not getting the truth and c) they see a lot of indications the virus is SARS like (meaning it does transmit person to person)
One of those doctors is dead (of Coronavirus) and the other is "missing" and several other experts in China who has spoken out in criticism of their handling have been "silenced"
Furthermore, we now know via US intelligence reports that China has lied with their reporting on this across the board from number of cases, deaths, and recoveries.
Using my brain, I can conclude yes, at the time the article was published China did in fact know the virus was transmitted person to person. And it's incontrovertible that the WHO tweeted out that information.
You need more proof go to Wuhan and dig it up yourself, at this point you are being argumentative for some reason or willfully ignorant. Take your pick.
All fine and dandy, but the data that was provided back in January was just as terrifying, even if it was under stated.
We should have taken this more seriously from the start. We didn’t.
We should have taken this more seriously when Italy was falling apart along with Iran and we didn’t.
South Korea did and they are doing just fine.
What you're not providing is any supporting evidence of 1) there being some underlying issue or agenda with WHO 2) that any domestic publication didn't "fact check in any way."
Those are serious claims that require serious evidence to be taken seriously. You're clearly invested in the issue, if there was corroborating evidence to those claims I am sure you can produce it.
Lots of domestic, international, public, and private institutions have communicated presumptions that have turned out to be untrue. Some of those institutions have done it routinely.
Maybe we could agree that it's not in the best interest of Americans for public and private institutions to publicly communicate presumptions or assertions that haven't been vetted and gone through rigor? And that even if you don't have a nefarious intent, that type of communication is harmful?
I'm sure they fudged it in the beginning also and I also believe Russia, Pakistan, and India are also. But here is zero question we dropped the ball in the beginning and it's our fault, not someone else's
I'm sure they fudged it in the beginning also and I also believe Russia, Pakistan, and India are also. But here is zero question we dropped the ball in the beginning and it's our fault, not someone else's
I think India just doesn’t have the resources to get the tests. Check out the Pandemic Netflix documentary. Talks about how hard it is to contain just the flu in India.
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And deaths.
I'm sure they fudged it in the beginning also and I also believe Russia, Pakistan, and India are also. But here is zero question we dropped the ball in the beginning and it's our fault, not someone else's
I think India just doesn’t have the resources to get the tests. Check out the Pandemic Netflix documentary. Talks about how hard it is to contain just the flu in India.
That could be. That whole country is the perfect Petri dish for something like this
China's lying and the WHO tweet didn't seem to stop stocks from being sold after those types of confidential briefings in January...
Regarding media accountability, it is a misunderstanding to think that media organizations themselves conspired to dictate the current media ecosystem. They didn't create twitter and sign up 330m active monthly users. They didn't create FB and sign up 1b people. They didn't create YT. Etc. They certainly didn't create the algorithms that determine what is popular and what isn't. They create programming for profit and truth be told they were behind the curve on all of those things (& certainly not dictating their impact on our lives).
Ranting against 'the media' is akin to blaming the movie studios for comic book movies. The consumers who spend tons of money on comic book movies and the share holders who demand profits are the reasons we get more comic book movies, and the same is true of the consumers who spend tons of time (impressions/ad$) on non-moderated free platforms consuming and sharing shitty news posted by joe schmo. Those platforms operate as the result of a free market. On the margin all of the tech advances are still more positive than negative despite their flaws (imo). Social media (esp Twitter) is the fastest way to find out things happen - and a big reason why whistleblowers in china were able to get the word out at all. There is also good media coverage out there, more often we just need to pay for it because good coverage can't survive on advertising alone anymore (like the Athletic). So like anything there is good and bad in how the market has developed.
I'm certainly not saying that everything is perfect or that there's no need for changes, just that it was not some conscious decision by the news media to go away from 'hard news'. It's our society's fault for not having the attention spans to value it, or the shared will and resolve to find a way to regulate through some form of legislation akin to the MPAA. If there was a nightly news show that was full of great, fact based news, and it led the ratings, we'd have more content like that.
I mentioned above the tagline that a local NBC station is using "Facts, Not Fear". And they say in their opening that they are here to provide the facts to protect us and not spread fear. And on cue at 6PM, they just got done saying the "facts, not fear" mantra and their first story was literally an interview with a local heath care workers with the caption "Healthcare worker fears for her life".
I get sensationalism, but when you run a campaign to only present facts, and then keep going away from that - there is a responsibility they should bear.
I'm sure they fudged it in the beginning also and I also believe Russia, Pakistan, and India are also. But here is zero question we dropped the ball in the beginning and it's our fault, not someone else's
I’m a big fan of extreme ownership and by that high standard, you’re right that the US fumbled the ball. Big time. No excuse. And it’s going to cost tens, if not hundreds of thousands of American lives. The economic damage and hardship will be, at best, horrific. At this point, it is really hard to see how the government could have done anything worse.
But, having said all that, the Chinese made this about as bad as possible for the entire world. They seriously screwed the whole world. They should have controlled the source - the wet markets or bio lab - which ever you believe - and once they lost control of the virus they should have warned the world. Instead, they lied and lied and even now they continue to lie. And it’s not like the Chinese regime is otherwise benign, they weren’t exactly doing any favors prior to release the most horrific viral infection in the past century.
I viewed the fourth estate as being an essential part of society. The primary way information is shared and I view them as having a responsibility to report facts, unbiased facts. If the facts are not readily apparent, investigate and learn the facts.
I don't think twitter, facebook, or other social media excuse the fact that journalism has become activism. Today it seems like journalists have an opinion or perspective and write a story seeking details to support their opinion or perspective and omitting or in some case even altering others that do not match their bias.
And this doesn't happen just one way, it happens all ways.
Maybe it's always been this way and social media makes it easier to amplify it or multiplied it, but it certainly seems like finding a trustworthy journalist or news source is impossible or at best harder than it should and I don't think it should be the responsibility of the public to separate fact from opinion. I also don't think being disappointed in the state of journalism in 2020 is in any way similar to disliking comic book movies.
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And deaths.
I'm sure they fudged it in the beginning also and I also believe Russia, Pakistan, and India are also. But here is zero question we dropped the ball in the beginning and it's our fault, not someone else's
I’m a big fan of extreme ownership and by that high standard, you’re right that the US fumbled the ball. Big time. No excuse. And it’s going to cost tens, if not hundreds of thousands of American lives. The economic damage and hardship will be, at best, horrific. At this point, it is really hard to see how the government could have done anything worse.
But, having said all that, the Chinese made this about as bad as possible for the entire world. They seriously screwed the whole world. They should have controlled the source - the wet markets or bio lab - which ever you believe - and once they lost control of the virus they should have warned the world. Instead, they lied and lied and even now they continue to lie. And it’s not like the Chinese regime is otherwise benign, they weren’t exactly doing any favors prior to release the most horrific viral infection in the past century.
There is definitely some culpability on China's part
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In comment 14856528 christian said:
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There is plenty of good reporting being done across a number of publications.
The public's responsibility is to seek out reputable reporting, and most importantly accepting that reporting even if doesn't correspond with your preconceptions or wishes.
Very hard to find the good jounalists right now, very hard to watch..
This thread is more informative even if we argue than anything in the news
it shouldn't be the public's responsibility to ferret out journalistic integrity.
it used to be reliable.
This era of social media, unverified reporting, and journalistic "activism" makes trusting anything you read hard, but it should not be the public's responsibility. That's where confirmation bias takes over and grows exponentially.
I viewed the fourth estate as being an essential part of society. The primary way information is shared and I view them as having a responsibility to report facts, unbiased facts. If the facts are not readily apparent, investigate and learn the facts.
I don't think twitter, facebook, or other social media excuse the fact that journalism has become activism. Today it seems like journalists have an opinion or perspective and write a story seeking details to support their opinion or perspective and omitting or in some case even altering others that do not match their bias.
And this doesn't happen just one way, it happens all ways.
Maybe it's always been this way and social media makes it easier to amplify it or multiplied it, but it certainly seems like finding a trustworthy journalist or news source is impossible or at best harder than it should and I don't think it should be the responsibility of the public to separate fact from opinion. I also don't think being disappointed in the state of journalism in 2020 is in any way similar to disliking comic book movies.
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In comment 14856525 schabadoo said:
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Yeah it's pretty sick what thoughts you can project onto someone else.
you dont think the media is enjoying higher ratings?
Some people that work in media have died already, some have tested positive.
So no, I doubt 'the media' is loving this.
They may be enjoying the higher ratings but it doesn’t always correlate to higher revenue. When the economy is bad, the first thing companies usually do is cut back on advertising spend. In a recession, the airtime you sell is less valuable. Close to 40 percent of TV advertising dollars comes from sports. Those stations are getting hit the hardest. News will pick-up some of those ratings but the airtime they sell will become cheap.
Strange take, don't read it
Quote:
And deaths.
I'm sure they fudged it in the beginning also and I also believe Russia, Pakistan, and India are also. But here is zero question we dropped the ball in the beginning and it's our fault, not someone else's
I’m a big fan of extreme ownership and by that high standard, you’re right that the US fumbled the ball. Big time. No excuse. And it’s going to cost tens, if not hundreds of thousands of American lives. The economic damage and hardship will be, at best, horrific. At this point, it is really hard to see how the government could have done anything worse.
But, having said all that, the Chinese made this about as bad as possible for the entire world. They seriously screwed the whole world. They should have controlled the source - the wet markets or bio lab - which ever you believe - and once they lost control of the virus they should have warned the world. Instead, they lied and lied and even now they continue to lie. And it’s not like the Chinese regime is otherwise benign, they weren’t exactly doing any favors prior to release the most horrific viral infection in the past century.
+
I viewed the fourth estate as being an essential part of society. The primary way information is shared and I view them as having a responsibility to report facts, unbiased facts. If the facts are not readily apparent, investigate and learn the facts.
I don't think twitter, facebook, or other social media excuse the fact that journalism has become activism. Today it seems like journalists have an opinion or perspective and write a story seeking details to support their opinion or perspective and omitting or in some case even altering others that do not match their bias.
And this doesn't happen just one way, it happens all ways.
Maybe it's always been this way and social media makes it easier to amplify it or multiplied it, but it certainly seems like finding a trustworthy journalist or news source is impossible or at best harder than it should and I don't think it should be the responsibility of the public to separate fact from opinion. I also don't think being disappointed in the state of journalism in 2020 is in any way similar to disliking comic book movies.
I agree with you that news should be treated differently than entertainment - my point is that regardless of our opinions that’s just not the case (especially on cable). ‘The news’ was deregulated over decades and social media has barely any regulation. So functionally news orgs operate with the same incentives for clicks/views the same way just about any other form of entertainment does. And answer to the exact same shareholders. When there are upfronts the news orgs are literally presenting and competing for the same $ as entertainment divisions in their own companies. There are some slightly different rules but the game is the same. The only fundamental organizational behavior difference is between pay model vs ad model.
Stay safe all.
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You served in the Navy (if I remember correctly). Have you been following the news of the carrier with 200 cases of Covid-19?
Yeah I saw that actually. Popped up on my Pixel newsfeed. I mean I'm not surprised. I got food poisoning about 5 times in two years. After the first time it went through, they took away Sick In Rack chits and made it up to your chain. They were just losing too much man power at one time. I will say this, if it was as contagious as everyone made it to be. I'm surprised not everyone on that ship has it. I mean they might, just might be asymptomatic. People on that ship are reasonably safe though, except for the Chiefs that skirt by on weight standards.
That was what I was getting at was the probability that everyone has it or will get it knowing how the virus can linger on surfaces. With regards to the "weight standards", I was in the infantry and our unit had a headquarters platoon assigned to the company. Headquarters was made up of the Supply Sargent, Armorer, Mess, etc. The longer you were enlisted the more relaxed the PT requirements were. The one cook who very well might have served in Vietnam had to complete his timed mile in 20 minutes. The guy was able to walk the entire mile and had to jog the last couple hundred yards to finish in time. He damn near had a heart attack.
Interesting question.
But no, I consider Breitbart a right-wing source who does exactly what I said many in the media do (write pieces to support their POV) similar/opposite to something like Huffington Post (which ironically or not was also (in part) started by Andrew Breitbart).
But to my point it's not fringe media that is losing it's neutral reputation, sources like breitbart and huffpo were never neutral or perceived to be neutral.
It's mainstream media that is the concerning faction.
When CBS wants to show how dire NYC hospitals are and they show clips from Italy. When ABC wants to show the impact of removing troops from Syria and they show military battle footage there - but that footage is from a gun range in Kentucky - it all seems like a con to me.
And that is my issue.
It seems like there is a position that the media seems to take and them writes stories to push that agenda. Just look at how Hydroxychloroquine has been handled as a good example. It's not news, it's activism and like I said maybe it was always this way, and I never paid attention or cared, but it seems more prevalent now.
Stay safe all.
I completely agree
Link - ( New Window )
The original CNN was supposed to be exactly that ( as was the 1950's NYT) - just news and not attempting to educate or entertain.
There are institutions that deeply care about truth, trustworthiness, and credibility. They make mistakes from time to time. Like editing in an inaccurate clip. Like getting a fact wrong. The cornerstone journalistic institutions publish corrections constantly. I don't find that to be discrediting, it's a mistake. Mistakes can be corrected. Mistakes don't disqualify.
The bedrock of a free and prosperous society is dogged pursuit of truth. If the pursuit and underlying value of truth is debased the version of freedom produced is orders of magnitude less perfect. It bears repeating -- I find it important to accept truths that counter how I would like the present to be and the future to play out.
Judging a media or really any outlet is more about the season and less about the play. There will be mistakes sprinkled in naturally. That's why I take such exception to broad claims to discredit. Discrediting an institution is a high threshold for me. If an institution has a history of credibility, but missteps on occasion, that's not discrediting that's natural and reparable.
If an outlet has a consistent habit of maneuvering around the truth and never acknowledging missteps, that's a discrediting.
Personally I've know a number of folks at Pew, and they are the most dogged, philosophical empiricists, non-partisans I know. That might be a good place to look at as a resource.
There are institutions that deeply care about truth, trustworthiness, and credibility. They make mistakes from time to time. Like editing in an inaccurate clip. Like getting a fact wrong. The cornerstone journalistic institutions publish corrections constantly. I don't find that to be discrediting, it's a mistake. Mistakes can be corrected. Mistakes don't disqualify.
The bedrock of a free and prosperous society is dogged pursuit of truth. If the pursuit and underlying value of truth is debased the version of freedom produced is orders of magnitude less perfect. It bears repeating -- I find it important to accept truths that counter how I would like the present to be and the future to play out.
Judging a media or really any outlet is more about the season and less about the play. There will be mistakes sprinkled in naturally. That's why I take such exception to broad claims to discredit. Discrediting an institution is a high threshold for me. If an institution has a history of credibility, but missteps on occasion, that's not discrediting that's natural and reparable.
If an outlet has a consistent habit of maneuvering around the truth and never acknowledging missteps, that's a discrediting.
Personally I've know a number of folks at Pew, and they are the most dogged, philosophical empiricists, non-partisans I know. That might be a good place to look at as a resource.
likewise Christian, I am one who believes respectful discourse is how we learn and advance as a society. I have opinions but I know when they're opinions and if you've seen me post on here before over the years I am one to acknowledge things like "I didn't consider that perspective" or "I was completely wrong on that".
(usually from posters like you, kicker or Bill2, but also many others - especially on this thread), so as long as people can tolerate my opinions (which I usually try and communicate respectfully and within the forum rules) I love to learn from others.
And on this thread I have new found respect for a lot of people.
my kids pranked me, said Charlie Baker (governor) announced liquor stores would be closed for the month beginning April 2.
I was in the car before they could tell me it was an April Fool's prank, lol.
it did put the fear of god in me though, so I re-stocked.
I got these IPA's called Wally Jr's - their from a local brewer called Wachusett. Delicious.
In a more every day sense I think everyone aspires to work for a company (or institution) that isn't backwards in the first place. I'll bet most sports writers out there idolize working for the athletic right now, the same way many probably used to dream about working for SI, and talented people in tv wanted to work for hbo, and good journalists covet working at the nyt, wsj, or wapo. There are only so many of those jobs out there though - and the growth as new media reduced the barrier of entry has been mostly on the other end of the spectrum.
We're stocked up pretty good here too. I'll probably make another run Friday because you can never have enough beer, especially in times like these. My neighbor, who is practically a teetotaler, was texting me the other day saying he's consumed more wine in the last 3 weeks than he has in the last 3 years. I had to laugh.
Then I think they get into competition we don't see with other networks and bolster their story with more facts ( slants) as they justify themselves. More people emerge who favor their slant and dump more color into the core misdirection. ( in every story there is a person or person trying to manage the narrative to shift or avoid blame and put lipstick on the pig or outlaw lipstick
They live in enough of a bubble they forget us for awhile
Then a new cycle comes along or new priorities and it just trails off never finished.
This is what happens when you half entertain/ half hold on to your core audience/half opinion/ half compete ( without telling us)/ gather facts to support the above.
it takes a lot of work to cross tab the results of the processes above (that each outlet follows to debate their particular take) - so we can extract a sound platform on complex issues.
I also point out that if a show builds and audience based on their digging in on say Andrew Jackson, you lose the audience when you all of a sudden reveal that he was an inspiration for illegitimate children, orphans and young people who lost their families. You cant turn to truth very often if it annoys left or right depending on your core demographic
We're stocked up pretty good here too. I'll probably make another run Friday because you can never have enough beer, especially in times like these. My neighbor, who is practically a teetotaler, was texting me the other day saying he's consumed more wine in the last 3 weeks than he has in the last 3 years. I had to laugh.
Purgatory Beer Company (link below). It's 45 min to an hour from Lowell. You should check it out - post on here if you want and if I'm there I'll buy you a beer.
Lowell is closer to Wachusett brewing company - 35 - 40 min both good. I love the Wally Jr from Wachusett.
and I'm sure there are more up that way, breweries are popping up all over (well not so much right now, but in general).
Link - ( New Window )
Lowell - LOL
I used to live in Hudson NH a lifetime ago, right up 3A
I love New England. And I especially love going up there & rocking Giants gear. The glares...makes my day. They're still bitter about XLII & XLVI.
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it is a .02% mortality rate right now? Now i know the deaths are going to go up because it takes a few days for the deaths to register but that seems really low...
You're off by a few decimal places 3603 deaths / 1861012 cases = .019 = 1.9%
thanks i knew that had to be really low
yeah im a moron haha
We'll get through this, but let's be smart.
Right now that is 5,109 deaths to 8,878 recovered according to the link below.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ - ( New Window )
Probably 1/3 of the people who have it don’t know it and another 1/3 have mild symptoms that aren’t getting tested. What we see so far is probably the 1/3 that unfortunately not having great outcomes
Just try to be hopeful. Still think it will be less than 1% when it’s all said and done. Unfortunately that’s still way to much. If it only kills 5x more than the flu, it will be a victory ( in this country)
Fingers crossed
If you're losing your job due to COVID-19, why aren't you allowed to sign up for the ACA Exchange? Of you required to take COBRA first?
I ask because they said the open enrolloment period (beginning of year) would may not be opened for people let go...which makes no sense. Isn't this considered a special case where you've lost health insurance, as defined on the ACA Exchange.
[quote] ..I'm a bit confused by something I heard tonight.
If you're losing your job due to COVID-19, why aren't you allowed to sign up for the ACA Exchange? Of you required to take COBRA first?
I ask because they said the open enrolloment period (beginning of year) would may not be opened for people let go...which makes no sense. Isn't this considered a special case where you've lost health insurance, as defined on the ACA Exchange. [/quote
And I might be answering my own question, but this may be in response to people who were working and not provided any insurance...and are now looking to buy thru the ACA.
Problem with that math is, that includes the person first diagnosed TODAY.
As cyber points out, the recovered vs death calculation is truly the scary one. Those are the people who have gone full cycle....
I've never spent much time around the broadcast end. Honestly don't watch much or any broadcast.
In the print & digital newsrooms and the news people I went to school with and spent lots of professional and personal time with, developing professional trust and friendships, there's not a group I would vouch for more.
It's a progressively tougher and tougher job. The framework breeds credibility. Delivering information from a network of sources you sometimes have to hang out to dry, and still be able to go back and get information from is quite noble.
If one spends 5 hours a week over a decent period time with the Times, Post, Journal, and Monitor, I doubt the conclusion is the medium is broken in my view.
Bill, in wars there are no neutrals, as we've learned for over a hundred years. Some think they are, but that usually means they either don't matter at all to anyone or just haven't figured out who is running them yet.
If you're losing your job due to COVID-19, why aren't you allowed to sign up for the ACA Exchange? Of you required to take COBRA first?
I ask because they said the open enrolloment period (beginning of year) would may not be opened for people let go...which makes no sense. Isn't this considered a special case where you've lost health insurance, as defined on the ACA Exchange.
The federal government had the option to allow open enrollment due to this crisis but chose not too. That's all I can say without getting banned (assuming I don't get banned for stating that fact).
Some snippets from the linked report from the Ha'Aretz - Israel's most respected daily rag.
The list of those who tested positive and are currently quarantined includes PM Netanyahu and the two top ranked health ministry officials.
The country's worst Covid-19 hotspot is the ultra Orthodox community of Bnei Brak in Tel Aviv. The Israeli Armed forces are deploying a unit to aid the community there.
No country that I know of recounts and reports individual deaths like Israel does. Scrolling down the link I found the following data on the last 7 victims to succumb: * = severe underlying condition noted for a patient, all were male, and the ages of each victim noted.
#25: * 66 yo M
#26: 72 yo M
#27: * 77 yo M
#28: * 95 yo M
#29: 78 yo M
#30: 87 yo M
#31: * 72 yo M
4/7 victims were noted as having serious pre-existing medical conditions (perhaps some of the others not noted also had pre-existing conditions?)
All were male! Perhaps not so surprising in a culture wherein older women, especially older ultra Orthodox women (among whom the illness is most rampant) don't socialize as much as the men?
All were over 65 years old.
6/7 were over 70 years old.
Wearing a face mask in public is becoming mandatory in Israel, and may have already become so. I find this EXTREMELY interesting as during last night's daily news broadcasts here in NY/NJ the necessity of facemask wearing was hotly debated. Some US officials are against the recommendation to wear a mask (perhaps fearful masks will be hoarded and unavailable to medical personnel?)
Brings up a point or two: Israel has enough masks that the broad populace can be ORDERED to wear masks in public while the US is so short of them they must be conserved for those most in need of protection?
Otherwise Israeli medical officials are accepting, POINT BLANK, THE VIRUS SURVIVES ON DROPLETS AND IS NOT SIMPLY AIRBORNE TRANSMITTED. Masks, they believe, offer protection from infection and help prevent a carrier from unloading the virus onto uninfected people. The droplet theory also confirms the importance of hand washing frequently, and the urgent behavioral need to keep your hands away from your mouth and eyes.
For all the panic the pandemic is causing, and surely tons of illnesses worldwide, it is brutally lethal only to (at least mostly to) a small swath of the population: the elderly and the previously health impaired.
I'll get shit for this, deservedly so (and I am among the susceptible by dint of age and pre-existing conditions both), but this virus is a "culling of the herd" type of health crises.
There, I've said it... But it seems to be staring us in the face.
April 2 Israel Covid-19 updates. - ( New Window )
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I keep up with this thread every day, and I can’t wait until it disappears into the BBI archives.
Strange take, don't read it
You have the strange take here Don. He isn't saying to take the thread down, he's saying he can't wait for the day it's no longer necessary to have a thread about it that needs to be read daily (ie when the pandemic is over).
Yea, a few days ago someone posted a Goldman Sachs unemployment stat projection of (I think) 15%. I thought that was a crock.
The consensus was around 3.8 Million.
So, the 6.6 Million is double the prior week figure of 3.3 Million.
Unemployment seems to be spreading as fast as COVID-19
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In comment 14856458 PetesHereNow said:
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I keep up with this thread every day, and I can’t wait until it disappears into the BBI archives.
Strange take, don't read it
You have the strange take here Don. He isn't saying to take the thread down, he's saying he can't wait for the day it's no longer necessary to have a thread about it that needs to be read daily (ie when the pandemic is over).
Oh, missed that pretty obvious point. Of course I share that.
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WOW
The consensus was around 3.8 Million.
So, the 6.6 Million is double the prior week figure of 3.3 Million.
Unemployment seems to be spreading as fast as COVID-19
Yeah, it's different than 2009, where the initial shock was in the banks and then it bled more slowly into a credit shock that choked business and led to a steady increase in unemployment. In this case, the lockdown/distancing measures were implemented widespread and simultaneously across the country. So what typically takes a long time to lead to larger levels of unemployment happen basically all at once.
the distancing stuff is still being rolled out in a lot of communities. We will likely have big numbers again next week too
Twitter doesn't divide people, people divide people.
To say it nicely.
The only shit being given is to those who have the temerity to suggest that there is a certain level of loss that should be expected and accepted rather than save every possible life no matter the cost.
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but it really sucks that we are so polarized as a country right now. Instead of blame, I wish we unified. After 9/11, everyone was so much more unified. But then again, Twitter didn’t exist.
Twitter doesn't divide people, people divide people.
To say it nicely.
Twitter definitely galvanizes that mob mentality, but I agree that we'd be divided now no matter what just because of the political pattern the last few years or so. It's been snowballing more and more as the population grows. More people, more needs, more opinions and anger.
They said today that unemployment could reach as high as 30%. That's more than the days of the depression. Fucking hell.
It will never happen, there is so much hate from both sides and the hate and negativity is always the loudest..
it is really sad but people hate each other just because they differ in opinion on who they vote for..it is sad really
Some minor good news, during this virus (and maybe going forward permanently) the Alchemist (VT brewery has expanded their distribution to MA. So, Heady Topper and Focal Banger will be available here. Not my local spot, but close.
And in other news, apparently I posted something offensive to someone on here over the past few days.
I get it that I don't think the same way a lot of people on here do, but I thought I had been respectful and I thought kept my commentary from being in any way inflammatory.
I guess not.
In almost 15 years here I have never had anyone complain (other than to my face) about my posts, so because I felt like I was intentionally not inflammatory but someone (multiple people?) felt like I was I will bow out of this thread.
I hope for all of your safety for you and your loved ones.
Maybe now the echo chamber can proceed without distortion and disruption.
IMO, with these type of graphs you shouldn't look at the daily up/down, but instead look at the overall trend. One individual day an be up or down indiscriminately. One needs to look at a week. For example if deaths tomorrow are 6 days, then the downward trend is still in place. Cuomo says pretty much the same in his daily presser.
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but it really sucks that we are so polarized as a country right now. Instead of blame, I wish we unified. After 9/11, everyone was so much more unified. But then again, Twitter didn’t exist.
It will never happen, there is so much hate from both sides and the hate and negativity is always the loudest..
it is really sad but people hate each other just because they differ in opinion on who they vote for..it is sad really
It’s not just a difference of opinion on who people vote for, this isn’t just like Giants or Jets but at the end of the day we’re all family. It’s literally different viewpoints on how society should operate. This stuff matters and strong feelings are warranted. Peoples lives, livelihoods and general well being are at stake. I don’t care if my family or friends who vote for the other side take offense when I berate them for it, I think they are doing severe damage to the world by voting for the other side and I am going to continue to tell them that.
I don’t believe the other side of the aisle operates in good faith, I don’t believe they have people’s best interest at heart, I don’t believe they have a suitable vision for running the country. Those are huge issues, you can just shrug that off and say oh well at the end of the day we’re all Americans. Not when you think one party has America flying down the express lane to disaster.
These days there are also straight up different realities depending on your political view which is extremely problematic. The internet has destabilized society massively, it will be interesting to see if we ever come out the other side.
"While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask when he goes to the grocery story.
Experts tell White House coronavirus can spread through talking or even just breathing - ( New Window )
I agree 100%. but it is not just the internet that is the bad actor in all this .. there is an unnamed cable channel that has fed lies to their viewers for 30 years.. until this is seriously addressed - our country will never get better ..
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A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.
"While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask when he goes to the grocery story.
Experts tell White House coronavirus can spread through talking or even just breathing - ( New Window )
If this were true why didnt every single jazz player get it? why didnt every player who played against mitchell and gobert get it?
in a controlled environment maybe it stays in the air, but i dont see it in the real world...
So, this is the 2nd straight week of 5 million # increases, which is astounding.
While the March reported unemployment rate will probably hover around 6-8%, the April number is going to be bad. If you look at weekly unemployment rates, the U3 number is about 10-12%. I hesitate to even think what U-6 will be.
Murica!
in a controlled environment maybe it stays in the air, but i dont see it in the real world...
Operative word is "can" as Uconn said. There's been a lot of anecdotal evidence that this was the case, but it's a little different when Harvey Fineberg says studies support it. Doesn't hurt to take extra precautions.
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If this were true why didnt every single jazz player get it? why didnt every player who played against mitchell and gobert get it?
in a controlled environment maybe it stays in the air, but i dont see it in the real world...
Operative word is "can" as Uconn said. There's been a lot of anecdotal evidence that this was the case, but it's a little different when Harvey Fineberg says studies support it. Doesn't hurt to take extra precautions.
i agree doesnt hurt i go to the grocery store i just stay away from people
In almost 15 years here I have never had anyone complain (other than to my face) about my posts, so because I felt like I was intentionally not inflammatory but someone (multiple people?) felt like I was I will bow out of this thread.
That's too bad. You've threaded the needle well keeping a complicated discussion as apolitical as possible, while generating good debate, and for me at least, pushing me to reflect more on my stances.
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I'll definitely recommend it to my cousin, who is also a beer guy. Hopefully everything is back to semi normal by then & I can make the trip. Lowell Folk Festival is always a fun weekend; been going 7 years now. We usually end up at the Worthen House.
Some minor good news, during this virus (and maybe going forward permanently) the Alchemist (VT brewery has expanded their distribution to MA. So, Heady Topper and Focal Banger will be available here. Not my local spot, but close.
Meh, if it was Foam, BBCO, or Hill Farmstead, THAT would be exciting!
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I'll definitely recommend it to my cousin, who is also a beer guy. Hopefully everything is back to semi normal by then & I can make the trip. Lowell Folk Festival is always a fun weekend; been going 7 years now. We usually end up at the Worthen House.
Some minor good news, during this virus (and maybe going forward permanently) the Alchemist (VT brewery has expanded their distribution to MA. So, Heady Topper and Focal Banger will be available here. Not my local spot, but close.
And in other news, apparently I posted something offensive to someone on here over the past few days.
I get it that I don't think the same way a lot of people on here do, but I thought I had been respectful and I thought kept my commentary from being in any way inflammatory.
I guess not.
In almost 15 years here I have never had anyone complain (other than to my face) about my posts, so because I felt like I was intentionally not inflammatory but someone (multiple people?) felt like I was I will bow out of this thread.
I hope for all of your safety for you and your loved ones.
Maybe now the echo chamber can proceed without distortion and disruption.
"Echo chamber" indeed. C'mon, pjcas. Quitting the thread is silly and, to be frank, sounds petulant. You surely do not need pats on the back here to know you are read and appreciated. (If you do, take this as one.) Many read but do not join in writing and posting. Others are addicted to it. Keep on working to prevent the echo chamber effect, which, of course, becomes what amounts to silence. Silence is the antithesis of what is needed -- here and elsewhere --as we all try to deal with this one way or another and escape complete domination and thought control by what I will call the news masters (in place of the more popular MSM). Less is almost never more.
IMO, with these type of graphs you shouldn't look at the daily up/down, but instead look at the overall trend. One individual day an be up or down indiscriminately. One needs to look at a week. For example if deaths tomorrow are 6 days, then the downward trend is still in place. Cuomo says pretty much the same in his daily presser.
No kidding. If you go to the link, you'll see just that -- long term charts. The U.S. chart for deaths is headed pretty much straight up long term. That is what has to be changed. (And forget six day measures and Cuomo information massaging, too.)
IMO, with these type of graphs you shouldn't look at the daily up/down, but instead look at the overall trend. One individual day an be up or down indiscriminately. One needs to look at a week. For example if deaths tomorrow are 6 days, then the downward trend is still in place. Cuomo says pretty much the same in his daily presser.
No kidding. If you go to the link, you'll see just that -- long term charts. The U.S. chart for deaths is headed pretty much straight up long term. That is what has to be changed. (And forget six day measures and Cuomo information massaging, too.)
It would be nice if it weren't political. But somehow even the idea of social distancing has become a political football. It's amazing really.
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These days there are also straight up different realities depending on your political view which is extremely problematic. The internet has destabilized society massively, it will be interesting to see if we ever come out the other side.
I agree 100%. but it is not just the internet that is the bad actor in all this .. there is an unnamed cable channel that has fed lies to their viewers for 30 years.. until this is seriously addressed - our country will never get better ..
The main stream media and political parties divide us. It’s by design. Their one side is good the other side is evil narrative is as fake as pro wrestling. They play for the same team.
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These days there are also straight up different realities depending on your political view which is extremely problematic. The internet has destabilized society massively, it will be interesting to see if we ever come out the other side.
I agree 100%. but it is not just the internet that is the bad actor in all this .. there is an unnamed cable channel that has fed lies to their viewers for 30 years.. until this is seriously addressed - our country will never get better ..
The main stream media and political parties divide us. It’s by design. Their one side is good the other side is evil narrative is as fake as pro wrestling. They play for the same team.
So we are uninformed. And worse - polarized - on issues that should have NO political bias, like climate change or the current Coronavirus outbreak, we are still turned against one another.
Worst of all, people were literally led to believe that CoVid was no big deal, that our 15 cases would soon drop to zero, that the 'Liberal Media' response was a 'hoax'.
I'm not trying to fight a political fight here, just pointing out the obvious.
Anyone who believes CNN bases their reporting on a political bias is foolish. It's MONEY FIRST. BREAKING NEWS. BREAKING NEWS. BREAKING NEWS. No matter how mundane the story, Wolf Blitzer productions ARE the chicken little of media. Screw him, screw them all.
US media made this country stupid, and this time, it's costing lives and oh - here's a nice economic depression to go along with the shit sandwich of a NYC that screams with ambulances 24/7.
Not looking to get in a big debate about it from a political standpoint, but it seems like this Coronavirus outbreak (and probably pandemics in general) is more of a response/logistical issue than form of healthcare.
Otherwise how can you explain the Italy and Spain fatality rates vs US (realizing none of us is out of the woods yet).
IOW I don't think any healthcare system is in any way better equipped to handle a pandemic like this one. At best you have to try and flatten the curve otherwise private or universal - your healthcare system is going to be overrun and people are going to die in large quantities.
I don't either. Problem with communicable diseases is no one, no matter how well trained, wants to physically see and examine someone who does or well might have it until and unless the person doing the examining is in a hazmat outfit -- and doesn't want to infect his or her office/staff either. So, as here now, they close up and tell you to go away to somewhere else better prepared to see you without fear if this sort of thing. Even for a test (e.g. , done in cars on big lots by people in hazmat suits or a close simulation of one).
I don’t really understand why some people report issues with the media here either. Not talking about the opinion columns, but I feel confident that the reporting in The NY Times is perfectly reliable. News 12 on Long Island also seems entirely reliable. Been keeping an eye on Apple News which also seems to be reliable for factual reporting.
Anyway...
FOX news was created on the basis of promoting conservative views. In the last few years CNN and MSNBC have countered and they all do it in an effort to gain views and promote the truth as they see it.
The real scandal is that many Americans are too stupid to watch the news and suss out the facts from the slant. I am not a smart man but I can watch either of the big two news channels with a jaundiced eye.
And Wolf Blitzer can eat a bag of ducks. Whatever the story is he tries to get as many scary thoughts out there as he can. My wife was stuck in FLA during a hurricane a few years ago and man was he doing his best to foment panic. He gets worse and worse.
Have several family members who would benefit greatly from the boost if it really happens.
That's good to hear. The Tri-State area is getting it now, but this sucker is going to hit EVERYWHERE hard. It's not a ? of if, but when.
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In comment 14857072 Sean said:
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but it really sucks that we are so polarized as a country right now. Instead of blame, I wish we unified. After 9/11, everyone was so much more unified. But then again, Twitter didn’t exist.
It will never happen, there is so much hate from both sides and the hate and negativity is always the loudest..
it is really sad but people hate each other just because they differ in opinion on who they vote for..it is sad really
. . .
I don’t believe the other side of the aisle operates in good faith, I don’t believe they have people’s best interest at heart, I don’t believe they have a suitable vision for running the country. Those are huge issues, you can just shrug that off and say oh well at the end of the day we’re all Americans. Not when you think one party has America flying down the express lane to disaster.
. . . The internet has destabilized society massively, it will be interesting to see if we ever come out the other side.
It's all about how different people think -- not what, but how. People perceive things in various ways through different means: sight and hearing on the street as it were, ads meant to motivate a buy this or vote that decision, punchy one-liners (Twitter-type), blogs (like this one), longer newspaper stories (often biased), longer ones in magazines (New Yorker, for example, also biased knowingly or not), films, books. Few do them all. Most do just some. And not all do it with the same skill or sensitivity. The internet is a good way in, but is not content -- a road to different kinds of content but does little or nothing in particular on its own to open eyes or minds or persuade. "Destabilized society"? True of everything ever printed. Blame Gutenberg (1440). Once they burned people at the stake for translating the bible (Tynsdale in England 1536). That is, they once said just what you are saying.
I find this interesting for a number of reasons. First, the tech is pretty cool. And it answer the retort that social media platforms can’t do anything to stop the spread of false information. That’s pretty cool and I applaud Facebook for developing and implementing the tech. I was also more than a little surprised I believed the article I was trying to post. It seemed like a reputable source (though in retrospect it should not have) and it cited a similar article in the NY Post (which I know is partisan but these seemed to be facts). I will also admit that Facebook linking me to the fact check article completely changed my thoughts on the matter at hand and it did keep me from spreading further misinformation. At least I think it did... And finally, I like to think of myself as being well informed. But, maybe that’s something I need to be a bit less confident about.
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he expects it to calm down in 7 days
That's good to hear. The Tri-State area is getting it now, but this sucker is going to hit EVERYWHERE hard. It's not a ? of if, but when.
I am hoping this isn't the case. Most of the country is no where near as congested as NYC (or othr big cities). This coupled with the social distancing and stay-at-home efforts that have been going on now for weeks, I am hoping that the peaks in many other US areas are no where near as severe as NYC is.
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In comment 14857126 giantfan2000 said:
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These days there are also straight up different realities depending on your political view which is extremely problematic. The internet has destabilized society massively, it will be interesting to see if we ever come out the other side.
I agree 100%. but it is not just the internet that is the bad actor in all this .. there is an unnamed cable channel that has fed lies to their viewers for 30 years.. until this is seriously addressed - our country will never get better ..
The main stream media and political parties divide us. It’s by design. Their one side is good the other side is evil narrative is as fake as pro wrestling. They play for the same team.
In *general* the media is not so much partisan as it is sensationalistic. The cable channels are the worst, designed to make it appear as though we are in a constant state of emergency. Stories that *bore* such as complex financial conflicts and crimes resulting from 2008, to the many issues with the Trump Presidency - if there isn't something to get the heart racing, FOX, CNN, MsNBC aren't interested.
So we are uninformed. And worse - polarized - on issues that should have NO political bias, like climate change or the current Coronavirus outbreak, we are still turned against one another.
Worst of all, people were literally led to believe that CoVid was no big deal, that our 15 cases would soon drop to zero, that the 'Liberal Media' response was a 'hoax'.
I'm not trying to fight a political fight here, just pointing out the obvious.
Anyone who believes CNN bases their reporting on a political bias is foolish. It's MONEY FIRST. BREAKING NEWS. BREAKING NEWS. BREAKING NEWS. No matter how mundane the story, Wolf Blitzer productions ARE the chicken little of media. Screw him, screw them all.
US media made this country stupid, and this time, it's costing lives and oh - here's a nice economic depression to go along with the shit sandwich of a NYC that screams with ambulances 24/7.
I'm waiting for the day comes when Wolf announces,
'Breaking News, Wolf Blitzer replaced by Shepard Smith. Wait. What? What???'
One governor just said that he didn't find out until 24 hours ago that asymptomatic carriers can transmit the virus. So, there's that.
So even if New York is working its way through its peak, this thing is far from over.
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In comment 14857277 nygiants16 said:
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he expects it to calm down in 7 days
That's good to hear. The Tri-State area is getting it now, but this sucker is going to hit EVERYWHERE hard. It's not a ? of if, but when.
I am hoping this isn't the case. Most of the country is no where near as congested as NYC (or othr big cities). This coupled with the social distancing and stay-at-home efforts that have been going on now for weeks, I am hoping that the peaks in many other US areas are no where near as severe as NYC is.
this, plus why would all of sudden places start getting surges if they arent already? the reason new york and northern part of jersey is getting hurt hard is the congestion and people who travel from bergen county to new york...
most places are spread out, so when it does die down in new york, why all of sudden is it going to get bad in other states? it is notike the virus can say hey i am done here, ok time to hop over to another state, it will have to be brought to those states by someone
It would be great if our country were unified like we were in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. The difference is that once 9/11 happened, our entire country knew we were in an immediate catastrophe and that our entire way of life was at stake if we didn't come together. It was immediate because planes crashing into towers were incontrovertible facts and unmissable.
In this case, there were people sounding the alarms for a long time on this. And yet, through willful ignorance and a coordinated effort to downplay the warnings and paint the alarms as agenda-driven has exponentially worsened the situation and put exponentially more people at risk, physically and economically.
I find this interesting for a number of reasons. First, the tech is pretty cool. And it answer the retort that social media platforms can’t do anything to stop the spread of false information. That’s pretty cool and I applaud Facebook for developing and implementing the tech. I was also more than a little surprised I believed the article I was trying to post. It seemed like a reputable source (though in retrospect it should not have) and it cited a similar article in the NY Post (which I know is partisan but these seemed to be facts). I will also admit that Facebook linking me to the fact check article completely changed my thoughts on the matter at hand and it did keep me from spreading further misinformation. At least I think it did... And finally, I like to think of myself as being well informed. But, maybe that’s something I need to be a bit less confident about.
this is honestly one of the most positive things I've heard in a long time re: social media. I hope this is a sign of things to come for all media. Truth should be protected as much as possible.
- Deprioritize Root Cause Analysis (aka blame)
- Recruit the smallest group of experts and then broaden as needed
- Provide crisp, frequent and honest status updates, even when it's "we don't know anything yet"
- Work through the playbook of knowns and unknowns with an eye on resolving the issue as fast as possible
- Double verify adjustments to not dig a deeper hole
- Resist the urge to take credit for solutions
- Assign a responsible party to collect the evidence from the aftermath to initiate RCA
Pretty good, but would modify fourth item to include erasing or covering up any issue that is confusing, resistant or impervious to resolution.
Time to see what a motivated group of smart scientists all over the world can do. I hope this is the start of better news ahead.
https://www.upmc.com/media/news/040220-falo-gambotto-sars-cov2-vaccine - ( New Window )
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PITTSBURGH – University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine scientists today announced a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic. When tested in mice, the vaccine, delivered through a fingertip-sized patch, produces antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities thought to be sufficient for neutralizing the virus.
Time to see what a motivated group of smart scientists all over the world can do. I hope this is the start of better news ahead. https://www.upmc.com/media/news/040220-falo-gambotto-sars-cov2-vaccine - ( New Window )
Sounds VERY promising. The only issue is they keep saying its a year or more(they are unsure here) before it could become widely available. They need to speed up human trials. Im sure there are plenty of people who would volunteer to get this moving at a more rapid pace.
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In comment 14857277 nygiants16 said:
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he expects it to calm down in 7 days
That's good to hear. The Tri-State area is getting it now, but this sucker is going to hit EVERYWHERE hard. It's not a ? of if, but when.
I am hoping this isn't the case. Most of the country is no where near as congested as NYC (or othr big cities). This coupled with the social distancing and stay-at-home efforts that have been going on now for weeks, I am hoping that the peaks in many other US areas are no where near as severe as NYC is.
I think this is what will happen based on some of the numbers I have seen. Supporting what you say is that CA got its first cases just days before NYC but has 8100+cases versus 84000+ in NYS, an order of magnitude difference over the same time period.
This is not to blame NY or anybody or anything, it's just that we can reasonably expect the effects to vary. Early data also suggest the social distancing is working.
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In comment 14857342 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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In comment 14857277 nygiants16 said:
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he expects it to calm down in 7 days
That's good to hear. The Tri-State area is getting it now, but this sucker is going to hit EVERYWHERE hard. It's not a ? of if, but when.
I am hoping this isn't the case. Most of the country is no where near as congested as NYC (or othr big cities). This coupled with the social distancing and stay-at-home efforts that have been going on now for weeks, I am hoping that the peaks in many other US areas are no where near as severe as NYC is.
this, plus why would all of sudden places start getting surges if they arent already? the reason new york and northern part of jersey is getting hurt hard is the congestion and people who travel from bergen county to new york...
most places are spread out, so when it does die down in new york, why all of sudden is it going to get bad in other states? it is notike the virus can say hey i am done here, ok time to hop over to another state, it will have to be brought to those states by someone
You need to keep abreast of current events. Florida, Mississippi, and Texas have largely been dismissive of the crisis and are now on the cusp of a serious outbreak. Spread out or not, if states aren't getting ahead of this on a proactive basis there likely won't be a place that doesn't get hit worse than they expect.
Also FYI -- People that have received it already have posted that it smells terrible and is a very thin liquid (not gel; you'll need to spray it vs pump).
https://www.froggysfog.com/sanitizer/froggy-s-simply-sanitizer-hand-rub-formulation.html - ( New Window )
The article is a few days old, but I came across a similar story yesterday on FB. I went to the NYT site because they seem to have the most details and were referenced by other articles I saw.
This company, Kinsa, has been tracking fevers through an device/app that people volunteer to sign-up for.
The data is not conclusive, but it does seem to be a much more leading indicator than how things are being tracked by the current methods, which are very lagging, obviously (Covid19 tests, hospitalizations, deaths).
This could go a long way towards a future where we get a much better handle on these things as they spread too.
Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest - ( New Window )
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In comment 14857342 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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In comment 14857277 nygiants16 said:
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he expects it to calm down in 7 days
That's good to hear. The Tri-State area is getting it now, but this sucker is going to hit EVERYWHERE hard. It's not a ? of if, but when.
I am hoping this isn't the case. Most of the country is no where near as congested as NYC (or othr big cities). This coupled with the social distancing and stay-at-home efforts that have been going on now for weeks, I am hoping that the peaks in many other US areas are no where near as severe as NYC is.
I think this is what will happen based on some of the numbers I have seen. Supporting what you say is that CA got its first cases just days before NYC but has 8100+cases versus 84000+ in NYS, an order of magnitude difference over the same time period.
This is not to blame NY or anybody or anything, it's just that we can reasonably expect the effects to vary. Early data also suggest the social distancing is working.
California, especially SF, started lockdowns and shelter-in-place strategies very early on. It's a mirror image of what has been done on the federal level.
On Monday alone, 280 million masks in warehouses around the U.S. were purchased by foreign buyers. A FEMA spokesperson said the agency “has not actively encouraged or discouraged U.S. companies from exporting overseas.”
Link - ( New Window )
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PITTSBURGH – University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine scientists today announced a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic. When tested in mice, the vaccine, delivered through a fingertip-sized patch, produces antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 at quantities thought to be sufficient for neutralizing the virus.
Time to see what a motivated group of smart scientists all over the world can do. I hope this is the start of better news ahead. https://www.upmc.com/media/news/040220-falo-gambotto-sars-cov2-vaccine - ( New Window )
Sounds VERY promising. The only issue is they keep saying its a year or more(they are unsure here) before it could become widely available. They need to speed up human trials. Im sure there are plenty of people who would volunteer to get this moving at a more rapid pace.
You can't just speed up trials. The short- and long-term effects have to be studied.
But meanwhile “My Pillow Dude” et al. make bank.
On Monday alone, 280 million masks in warehouses around the U.S. were purchased by foreign buyers. A FEMA spokesperson said the agency “has not actively encouraged or discouraged U.S. companies from exporting overseas.” Link - ( New Window )
Thats infuriating.
- These models have been highly influential in policy decisions.
- While the most important predictions have come true, there is much yet to be known about the epidemic that will affect it's long term course.
- It is difficult to model social interactions and social distancing, but the models show that social distancing is already working to reduce R0 close to 1. Presumably the effects of this will come through in the new infection and hospitalization data going forward. Those are UK projections, but I think there are some signs the same is true of early hit US states.
- A second wave is predicted but could be ameliorated through South Korea like testing.
Special report: The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19 - ( New Window )
The article is a few days old, but I came across a similar story yesterday on FB. I went to the NYT site because they seem to have the most details and were referenced by other articles I saw.
This company, Kinsa, has been tracking fevers through an device/app that people volunteer to sign-up for.
The data is not conclusive, but it does seem to be a much more leading indicator than how things are being tracked by the current methods, which are very lagging, obviously (Covid19 tests, hospitalizations, deaths).
This could go a long way towards a future where we get a much better handle on these things as they spread too. Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest - ( New Window )
very cool.
While that may be true, the population density of NYC waaay outweighs the overweight population IMO. It's really hard to measure, but the interaction that people have in cities like NYC is magnitudes more than the southern cities.
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I thought I read somewhere that being overweight made dealing with covid19 much more challenging. For people in cities like Houston that could make things a lot worse than here in NYC where people are relatively thinner. I obviously don’t know, but I really hope people in other parts of America don’t think this is something that’s just gonna hit the Northeastern cities.
While that may be true, the population density of NYC waaay outweighs the overweight population IMO. It's really hard to measure, but the interaction that people have in cities like NYC is magnitudes more than the southern cities.
Agree. A place like Houston is a lot less dense than NYC, and once you get outside of the main area it quickly drops to residential or downright rural. NYC is not only dense, but there are a lot of surrounding communities which are very dense too
- These models have been highly influential in policy decisions.
- While the most important predictions have come true, there is much yet to be known about the epidemic that will affect it's long term course.
- It is difficult to model social interactions and social distancing, but the models show that social distancing is already working to reduce R0 close to 1. Presumably the effects of this will come through in the new infection and hospitalization data going forward. Those are UK projections, but I think there are some signs the same is true of early hit US states.
- A second wave is predicted but could be ameliorated through South Korea like testing.
Special report: The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19 - ( New Window )
Modelers have become the new Wizards in our fairy tale.
Alaska: 2.07%
California: 0.69%
Connecticut: 1.17%
DC: 3.37%
Kentucky: 2.32%
Lousiana: 3.51%
Maine: 3.09%
Massachusetts: 3.78%
New Hampshire: 3.78%
New Jersey: 2.42%
New York: 0.71%
North Carolina: 1.84%
Pennsylvania: 5.79% (fuck the Eagles)
Rhode Island: 6.44%
South Carolina: 1.27%
Texas: 1.02%
Virginia: 1.00%
Washington (the state): 3.03%
This is interesting...
As I am waiting for a COVID19 update from our CEO at the hospital before seeing some new consults, I came across this lovely abstract. Pertains to Corona virus. This was submitted to Cell a very good and reliable journal
Inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infections in engineered human tissues using clinical-grade soluble human ACE2. Submitted to Cell, 2020 DOI:
The gist is the following. We know that the virus must attach itself to a receptor before it can enter a cell. The receptor, most believe, is called ACE2 and is abundantly present in lung and cardiac tissue. Thus any virus like COVID that we encounter will attach to this receptor and then enter the cell and multiply. There are multiple ways to prevent this including molecules that block the receptor but this therapy is different as it acts as a soluble mop. Basically this soluble mop offers the receptor to the virus in competition with the tissue derived receptor. Basically, it becomes a competition between the ACE receptor on lungs versus the presence of receptors in soluble form. The affinity of the virus for the soluble drug is greater thus decreasing the level of virus capable of entering the cell.
The drug when tested in what are called organoids that were exposed to COVID was almost completely able to neutralize the virus and decrease the reproductive rate and in principle abrogate the clinical syndrome. These are not trials but very promising indeed. Since these organoids are derived from human stem cells, it does suggest a viable mechanism and a potential therapy that could be readily available to treat the sickest of our patients to start. Thought some positive news would be refreshing for a change. This is superb science and shows how collaboration worldwide can help ease the overwhelming effects we are seeing.
Please do not shoot the messenger, I am only trying to shed light on a potential therapy which the scientist in me can see as successful.
He should get a swift kick in the junk.
Also, Worldwide cases now exceed one million.
and his neighbor to the north, running the state that houses the CDC, just revealed that he only learned 24 hours ago that asymptomatic carriers could transmit the virus.
The people not rallying around the country aren't the ones vocalizing their criticism of the willful ineptitude. The ones betraying the country are those who are not fulfilling their duties to protect the American people.
I heard that this afternoon and just shook my head. What an abject failure. What I don't understand is why the delay with direct deposit? It is an electronic transaction - no check; no mailing; You have one account (Federal Treasury) and the recipient's account. There should be no delay on electronic transactions.
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said religious services conducted in churches, synagogues and houses of worship are “essential business” and therefore exempt from his stay-at-home order
and his neighbor to the north, running the state that houses the CDC, just revealed that he only learned 24 hours ago that asymptomatic carriers could transmit the virus.
The people not rallying around the country aren't the ones vocalizing their criticism of the willful ineptitude. The ones betraying the country are those who are not fulfilling their duties to protect the American people.
They are ALL failing us! Dr. Fauci getting death threat?!?!?! He's the only one worth a damn on that "team".
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snickers : 3:54 pm
As I am waiting for a COVID19 update from our CEO at the hospital before seeing some new consults, I came across this lovely abstract. Pertains to Corona virus. This was submitted to Cell a very good and reliable journal
Inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infections in engineered human tissues using clinical-grade soluble human ACE2. Submitted to Cell, 2020 DOI:
The gist is the following. We know that the virus must attach itself to a receptor before it can enter a cell. The receptor, most believe, is called ACE2 and is abundantly present in lung and cardiac tissue. Thus any virus like COVID that we encounter will attach to this receptor and then enter the cell and multiply. There are multiple ways to prevent this including molecules that block the receptor but this therapy is different as it acts as a soluble mop. Basically this soluble mop offers the receptor to the virus in competition with the tissue derived receptor. Basically, it becomes a competition between the ACE receptor on lungs versus the presence of receptors in soluble form. The affinity of the virus for the soluble drug is greater thus decreasing the level of virus capable of entering the cell.
The drug when tested in what are called organoids that were exposed to COVID was almost completely able to neutralize the virus and decrease the reproductive rate and in principle abrogate the clinical syndrome. These are not trials but very promising indeed. Since these organoids are derived from human stem cells, it does suggest a viable mechanism and a potential therapy that could be readily available to treat the sickest of our patients to start. Thought some positive news would be refreshing for a change. This is superb science and shows how collaboration worldwide can help ease the overwhelming effects we are seeing.
Please do not shoot the messenger, I am only trying to shed light on a potential therapy which the scientist in me can see as successful.
Extremely valuable. Cannot find the originating comment, though. Glad you saved this and put it up. Thanks!
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In comment 14857550 japanhead said:
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said religious services conducted in churches, synagogues and houses of worship are “essential business” and therefore exempt from his stay-at-home order
and his neighbor to the north, running the state that houses the CDC, just revealed that he only learned 24 hours ago that asymptomatic carriers could transmit the virus.
The people not rallying around the country aren't the ones vocalizing their criticism of the willful ineptitude. The ones betraying the country are those who are not fulfilling their duties to protect the American people.
They are ALL failing us! Dr. Fauci getting death threat?!?!?! He's the only one worth a damn on that "team".
Skipper of the TR to be relieved - ( New Window )
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In comment 14857586 PaulBlakeTSU said:
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In comment 14857550 japanhead said:
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said religious services conducted in churches, synagogues and houses of worship are “essential business” and therefore exempt from his stay-at-home order
and his neighbor to the north, running the state that houses the CDC, just revealed that he only learned 24 hours ago that asymptomatic carriers could transmit the virus.
The people not rallying around the country aren't the ones vocalizing their criticism of the willful ineptitude. The ones betraying the country are those who are not fulfilling their duties to protect the American people.
They are ALL failing us! Dr. Fauci getting death threat?!?!?! He's the only one worth a damn on that "team".
Mot exactly a thoughtful or helpful comment.
Apologies, I'm (like most of us) just incredibly frustrated.
if you did direct deposit on your tax returns thats how you will get the stimulus
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by April 13. It will then take about 3 weeks to start sending out the rest of the checks, which will be about 5 million per week, which means that the last batch of stimulus checks could be about 20 weeks out...
I heard that this afternoon and just shook my head. What an abject failure. What I don't understand is why the delay with direct deposit? It is an electronic transaction - no check; no mailing; You have one account (Federal Treasury) and the recipient's account. There should be no delay on electronic transactions.
Feels like the same thing that affects "check is in the mail" small biz payments, IMO. If I had to guess, tax payments are being rerouted to the stimulus.
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by April 13. It will then take about 3 weeks to start sending out the rest of the checks, which will be about 5 million per week, which means that the last batch of stimulus checks could be about 20 weeks out...
if you did direct deposit on your tax returns thats how you will get the stimulus
Dynamite drop-in Monty.
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by April 13. It will then take about 3 weeks to start sending out the rest of the checks, which will be about 5 million per week, which means that the last batch of stimulus checks could be about 20 weeks out...
if you did direct deposit on your tax returns thats how you will get the stimulus
I may be wrong, but the way I understood this is that the direct deposit people (the ones who got direct deposit of their taxes) would get their money in 2 weeks or so. The people who will require physical checks, or have to submit their direct deposit information because they didn't use it for taxes, would be the ones who have to wait.
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These days there are also straight up different realities depending on your political view which is extremely problematic. The internet has destabilized society massively, it will be interesting to see if we ever come out the other side.
I agree 100%. but it is not just the internet that is the bad actor in all this .. there is an unnamed cable channel that has fed lies to their viewers for 30 years.. until this is seriously addressed - our country will never get better ..
The main stream media and political parties divide us. It’s by design. Their one side is good the other side is evil narrative is as fake as pro wrestling. They play for the same team.
Eff that. The MSM isn't the bad actor as long as there are people who are reaching back 30 years with hindsight to find every time they've been misled. We all have access to every side of the story. We choose whether to read one side, neither, or both.
Stupid is a personal choice.
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In comment 14857126 giantfan2000 said:
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These days there are also straight up different realities depending on your political view which is extremely problematic. The internet has destabilized society massively, it will be interesting to see if we ever come out the other side.
I agree 100%. but it is not just the internet that is the bad actor in all this .. there is an unnamed cable channel that has fed lies to their viewers for 30 years.. until this is seriously addressed - our country will never get better ..
The main stream media and political parties divide us. It’s by design. Their one side is good the other side is evil narrative is as fake as pro wrestling. They play for the same team.
Eff that. The MSM isn't the bad actor as long as there are people who are reaching back 30 years with hindsight to find every time they've been misled. We all have access to every side of the story. We choose whether to read one side, neither, or both.
Stupid is a personal choice.
Unfortunately, it's actually not a choice for some people.
Please God, let us get back to normal, or semi normal, STAT.
What are some initial easings they can do?
Another ? is how are people going to act. I'm of the mindset that there's 3 groups: 1) 'F Yeah. Everything's open! Let's go!, 2) 'Yeah, things are open. But maybe I'll ease myself back into society/going out, & 3) 'I'm going to be a hermit for a bit longer to make sure this thing is officially gone.'
I probably find myself in group 2.
Another ? is how are people going to act. I'm of the mindset that there's 3 groups: 1) 'F Yeah. Everything's open! Let's go!, 2) 'Yeah, things are open. But maybe I'll ease myself back into society/going out, & 3) 'I'm going to be a hermit for a bit longer to make sure this thing is officially gone.'
I probably find myself in group 2.
I just said this to my wife, people will be excited but a lot people will be nervous to go back out, especially people who are older and stayed in their house and didnt go anywhere..
it is going to take awhile for people to feel comfortable, i dont think j will be nervous because i am still semi working and i am doing the shopping for 2 households, so i have been out of the house
More people are going to demand full or part time telework. More meetings are going to be via videoconference.
A lot of businesses are going to go away.
Hopefully, if anything good comes of this, it will make people practice good hygiene. I'm a total germaphobe so I was washing my hands like 20 times a day before this craziness began, but hopefully other people start doing this too.
Hopefully, if anything good comes of this, it will make people practice good hygiene. I'm a total germaphobe so I was washing my hands like 20 times a day before this craziness began, but hopefully other people start doing this too.
Yeah agreed..
my parents bought a second house in jupiter a couple of yeara ago, i joked with ny dad why couldnt he buy a house on 50 acres of land instead of florida, would be perfect right now
Over 5,000 have died in France from the virus.
We can't say that? - Jenkins
Over 5,000 have died in France from the virus.
I think it was Spain where they are using an ice rink as a morgue. They should be thankful to be able to re-purpose such facilities. In Ecuador, the news showed where bodies are left in coffins curbside as the morgue was overwhelmed and couldn't accommodate any more.
Hopefully, if anything good comes of this, it will make people practice good hygiene. I'm a total germaphobe so I was washing my hands like 20 times a day before this craziness began, but hopefully other people start doing this too.
Yes,
This is an example of what I meant by there will be life before the virus, and life after.
In a great modern country like the United States of America, for generations, we have been able to flip the bird to deadly communicable disease. The vast majority of us,basically anyone not ill, immune compromised, or very old, if you caught a communicable disease you got better. Who was sacred of picking up a bug at a sporting event? Thanks to science, ample food and sanitation, no one was.
Those days are over now. This is a deadly germ and it is everywhere on God's green Earth. It must be respected and many facets of life will be permanently changed. This is uncharted waters for any American alive today. No one knows how it will play out. It is not an extinction event, but it is a major historical event, a bad one.
I hope Science saves the day, but let's be honest regarding a vaccine. If one that is effective and safe comes out anywhere near the bandied about time frame of 18 months, thst would be one of the greatest achievements in human history. The men and women responsible for that should have statues built, bridges named and so on. The world is still waiting for a HIV vaccine and that broke out in the 80's.
More likely are medicines and treatments, more immunity in the population and the fact that the virus itself may change to be less virulent like its Coronavirus cousins which cause the common cold. I read that somewhere. Lots of unknowns though, and in the interim many are dying and healthcare workers are on the front line of this microbe WWIII.
Of course, even bad historical events can bring about positives for the future. To me though it is a lock things will change forever and no one knows how it plays out.
I think it goes way beyond being retarded.
I mean the guy said that he just learned within the past 24 hours that asymptomatic patients could actually spread COVID-19.
Where has this guy been hiding... in a sealed, underground, sound-proof room?
This was amazing news because it seemed extremely bleak 24 hours ago. And this is exactly the type of data that medical professionals are tracking and looking at to find a treatment as a vaccine is created. So I know each case is different, and there is a long road ahead, but at least in this case for her mom, it seems to have worked.
Stay Classy
I'm still trying to wrap my head around how/why this treats each individual so differently. Neither of these ladies are the picture of health. Both quite frail. One was a longtime smoker. Will be interesting to see if they ever figure out why this virus behaves in this manner.
The vent shortage is real.
Some patients, even young and otherwise healthy, have this severe systemic inflammatory response, cytokine storm, which is almost impossible to treat unless they are at a tertiary care center with the available "experimental" drugs and advanced supportive treatment.
And the governor of Florida exempting churchgoers from lockdown because church is "essential."
Idiots electing idiots in some states.
.
Have they done enough studies yet to determine this?
The ones that respond go home and talk about it I guess. I can tell all these deaths were on them too.
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Georgia retarded?
I think it goes way beyond being retarded.
I mean the guy said that he just learned within the past 24 hours that asymptomatic patients could actually spread COVID-19.
Where has this guy been hiding... in a sealed, underground, sound-proof room?
Maybe a positive part of COVID's legacy will be the effect it has upon how voters evaluate candidates for public office, and if so, hopefully a guy like this won't pass the muster.
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Governor of Georgia. Can’t make this stuff up. Welp, give the people what they want I guess.
And the governor of Florida exempting churchgoers from lockdown because church is "essential."
Idiots electing idiots in some states.
Separation of church and state. Above the law, I think, unless they want to go to court. Won’t move the needle ... let it be.
Glad to hear stories above about recoveries. Bless your families
Is the ‘virus still winning’? I’ve stayed away from this thread for days because of various whiny death seeking asswipes but just curious if this one guy is still calling his shot like Michael Kay saying ‘see ya’ during a Yankees game
72 hours symptom free after almost three weeks of being quarantined with the virus. I only had to use 4 sick days plus a weekend with fever where it was all I could do to keep fluids going and eat occasionally. Had to sleep a couple nights in a chair.
But my wife and I both ended up with mild/medium symptoms and neither of us had to go to the hospital. Given we're both over 60 we feel pretty lucky. I only had to use 4 sick days because I'm able to work from home and there were only 6 days where I was just too beat up to even do that. My wife will be going back to work Saturday if she stays well. I'll probably be going in too to catch up on things that need hands on. We both work at a local hospital and I know they're short so we're glad to be able to go back.
Feeling very fortunate.
72 hours symptom free after almost three weeks of being quarantined with the virus. I only had to use 4 sick days plus a weekend with fever where it was all I could do to keep fluids going and eat occasionally. Had to sleep a couple nights in a chair.
But my wife and I both ended up with mild/medium symptoms and neither of us had to go to the hospital. Given we're both over 60 we feel pretty lucky. I only had to use 4 sick days because I'm able to work from home and there were only 6 days where I was just too beat up to even do that. My wife will be going back to work Saturday if she stays well. I'll probably be going in too to catch up on things that need hands on. We both work at a local hospital and I know they're short so we're glad to be able to go back.
Feeling very fortunate.
Awesome stuff Tj. Thanks for sharing. Check that box, and thank you for your immunity! Easily 5%, Maybe 10% of cities have been infected and immunized by now. Maybe more. Stay positive everyone.
More people are going to demand full or part time telework. More meetings are going to be via videoconference.
A lot of businesses are going to go away.
Agreed.
Hopefully, if anything good comes of this, it will make people practice good hygiene. I'm a total germaphobe so I was washing my hands like 20 times a day before this craziness began, but hopefully other people start doing this too.
Amazon I think is the company - checking every employees temperature when they get to work. This will be part of life for the next 2 years —airports and mass events like sports and concerts. If you have a temperature, sorry no admission
This was amazing news because it seemed extremely bleak 24 hours ago. And this is exactly the type of data that medical professionals are tracking and looking at to find a treatment as a vaccine is created. So I know each case is different, and there is a long road ahead, but at least in this case for her mom, it seems to have worked.
Great news. I hope she feels better and recovers fully.
72 hours symptom free after almost three weeks of being quarantined with the virus. I only had to use 4 sick days plus a weekend with fever where it was all I could do to keep fluids going and eat occasionally. Had to sleep a couple nights in a chair.
But my wife and I both ended up with mild/medium symptoms and neither of us had to go to the hospital. Given we're both over 60 we feel pretty lucky. I only had to use 4 sick days because I'm able to work from home and there were only 6 days where I was just too beat up to even do that. My wife will be going back to work Saturday if she stays well. I'll probably be going in too to catch up on things that need hands on. We both work at a local hospital and I know they're short so we're glad to be able to go back.
Feeling very fortunate.
Fantastic. Best wishes to you both.
Key Concept: "There are too many variables at play in this pandemic to make the models reliable"
This is not a luddite put down of models or modelers. That would be foolish. Its a comment about modeling this phenomenon at this time.
If a person with expertise ( and there are others who say the same) says that why should we over rotate on models at this time?
Its a hard situation to deal with precisely because patience in the face of the unknowns is required.
I studied HIV at UC Berkley in the mid late 80s, read everything I could find on it and wrote a paper on it summarizing the challenge it presented as a disease going forward. A challenge that has been largely met and overcome.
Way back then I wrote that it was unlikely a vaccine would ever be developed for HIV, it's far too mutable.
Way back then it was known that although one given strain of HIV can start an infection leading to AIDS, by the time AIDS symptoms appear (with it's typically very long lag time and incubation period) the patient with AIDS could transmit hundreds of HIV strain variants to his partner-victims. It's the nature of the virus, we couldn't develop a working vaccine given its extreme mutability.
Please try to read more and post less drivel and dire predictions. Ignorance is not our friend.
PS Covid-19 isn't a "germ", it's a virus. There's a difference.
Gary from The East End : Admin : 4/2/2020 7:47 pm : link : reply
People are going to be much more careful about public gatherings well after the virus has cleared out.
More people are going to demand full or part time telework. More meetings are going to be via videoconference.
A lot of businesses are going to go away.
This is my fear as well. Things are going to change.
One chap calling from Idaho Falls, a town of 55.000 on the Southeastern large plain of the state, said that people there, where the virus has barely touched down (yet), folks were largely paying not attention whatsoever to guidelines about social distancing, let alone wearing face masks to prevent droplet borne transmission of the virus.
When entire communities pay no heed to the pandemic, or at least no heed to prevention of it's transmission, it's hard to forecast via models.
To my wild guess this thing causes many asymptomatic infections among the young and healthy, and until we get way, way more tests performed on those asymtomatic carries we will have no ability to accurately predict it's course - given folks won't or simply don't take effective measures to stop its spread until it's made serious inroads to a given community.
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The world is still waiting for a HIV vaccine and that broke out in the 80's.
I studied HIV at UC Berkley in the mid late 80s, read everything I could find on it and wrote a paper on it summarizing the challenge it presented as a disease going forward. A challenge that has been largely met and overcome.
Way back then I wrote that it was unlikely a vaccine would ever be developed for HIV, it's far too mutable.
Way back then it was known that although one given strain of HIV can start an infection leading to AIDS, by the time AIDS symptoms appear (with it's typically very long lag time and incubation period) the patient with AIDS could transmit hundreds of HIV strain variants to his partner-victims. It's the nature of the virus, we couldn't develop a working vaccine given its extreme mutability.
Please try to read more and post less drivel and dire predictions. Ignorance is not our friend.
PS Covid-19 isn't a "germ", it's a virus. There's a difference.
You keep calling me ignorant, but I was responding to a post made that someone in the future would be wary of someone coughing behind them at an NBA game post pandemic. This to me makes sense and is an example of possible behavior changes going forward. I don't think it is ignorant to say that the pandemic will bring about many changes to society. Also, that no one can really predict with fidelity what these changes will be, good or bad.
Regarding the vaccine, I am not a scientist, I do understand some viruses mutate more like HIV as you stated or flu, where they have to guess every year to try to match the vaccine to best meet the flu for that season. That viruses that mutate more present larger challenges to an working vaccine.
I do think that the crash scientific development vaccines today, during the pandemic itself, if successful that quickly would be an amazing achievement and one worthy of praise. Has such a thing ever happened before, so fast? It also is no lock to work. This is an ignorant statement that there may be setbacks? I read one of the vaccines tried for SARS 1 granted immunity, but created some situation where the immune response is so strong that it harms and is worse than the disease? It is ignorant to assume such obstacles will be there in these current trials? Look, I hope the vaccine comes out as fast as possible. I just don't think it is a lock, especially in that time frame.
HIV can be controlled today with modern medicine, an amazing thing, with anti-viral medications which likely will come around first for Corona. Already there is promise for some repurposed exisitng medicines.
As far as germs, I know there is debate about whether viruses are actually alive I think because they can't reproduce on their own and hijack other cells to do so, and they are super small compared to other microbes. Thats going on high school biology and the internet there.
Like I said, not a scientist.
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The world is still waiting for a HIV vaccine and that broke out in the 80's.
I studied HIV at UC Berkley in the mid late 80s, read everything I could find on it and wrote a paper on it summarizing the challenge it presented as a disease going forward. A challenge that has been largely met and overcome.
Way back then I wrote that it was unlikely a vaccine would ever be developed for HIV, it's far too mutable.
Way back then it was known that although one given strain of HIV can start an infection leading to AIDS, by the time AIDS symptoms appear (with it's typically very long lag time and incubation period) the patient with AIDS could transmit hundreds of HIV strain variants to his partner-victims. It's the nature of the virus, we couldn't develop a working vaccine given its extreme mutability.
Please try to read more and post less drivel and dire predictions. Ignorance is not our friend.
PS Covid-19 isn't a "germ", it's a virus. There's a difference.
Rocco’s so called,” drivel and dire predictions (over a month ago), for the most part, turned out to be true.
Some clever chap posted here on BBI that the Giants secondary seem to practice social distancing...pretty funny.
The US is not capable of implementing a lockdown anywhere close to what they had in China, and we don’t have the testing and organization that Singapore and Korea had.
Not to be alarmist but this is what makes me think social distancing and lockdowns in the US will still be required for multiple months to come. And I think people went into this thinking a couple weeks.
...
One treatment plant can capture wastewater from more than one million people, says Gertjan Medema, a microbiologist at KWR Water Research Institute in Nieuwegein, the Netherlands. Monitoring effluent at this scale could provide better estimates for how widespread the coronavirus is than testing, because wastewater surveillance can account for those who have not been tested and have only mild or no symptoms, says Medema, who has detected SARS-CoV-2 genetic material — viral RNA — in several treatment plants in the Netherlands. “Health authorities are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.”
...
Wastewater monitoring has been used for decades to assess the success of vaccination campaigns against poliovirus, says Charles Gerba, an environmental microbiologist at The University of Arizona in Tucson. The approach could also be used to measure the effectiveness of interventions such as social distancing, says Gerba, who has found traces of SARS-CoV-2 in raw sewage in Tucson.
How sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak - ( New Window )
I do think that the crash scientific development vaccines today, during the pandemic itself, if successful that quickly would be an amazing achievement and one worthy of praise. Has such a thing ever happened before, so fast? It also is no lock to work. This is an ignorant statement that there may be setbacks? I read one of the vaccines tried for SARS 1 granted immunity, but created some situation where the immune response is so strong that it harms and is worse than the disease? It is ignorant to assume such obstacles will be there in these current trials? Look, I hope the vaccine comes out as fast as possible. I just don't think it is a lock, especially in that time frame.
A couple things make the search for a vaccine/treatment/cure so much different than anything that has happened before.
First of all, the amount of resources being devoted to this singular task right now is really unprecedented in human history. Scientists all over the world, including some who are not far from where I am currently sitting, are looking for solutions to this problem. You could compare it to the Apollo moon program, but even that would be understating things.
Second, we have tools now that previous generations of researchers could only dream of. There are all kind of advanced computational tools. There are ways to look at the fine structures of the virus and see exactly how it works and how to stop it. Pretty much everyone who has these tools is making them available for Sars-Cov-2 investigation.
On the other hand, you can't make a baby in a month by making nine women pregnant. There's steps that you have to go through, even in exigent circumstances, to make sure you don't make things worse and kill a lot of people.
Everyone just needs to stay inside for a while until the big brains figure it our.
The US is not capable of implementing a lockdown anywhere close to what they had in China, and we don’t have the testing and organization that Singapore and Korea had.
Not to be alarmist but this is what makes me think social distancing and lockdowns in the US will still be required for multiple months to come. And I think people went into this thinking a couple weeks.
You will never be able to keep this going for multiple months, people arr losing their jobs at record rates, the damage from doing this months will far outweigh the damage of this virus..
the suicide rate will skyrocket, people will lose homes, businesses, it is just not feasable..
I hope the success comes as soon as possible. Cant make a baby in a month by making nine women pregnant is a great line.
I am rooting for science as we all are.
I hope the success comes as soon as possible. Cant make a baby in a month by making nine women pregnant is a great line.
I am rooting for science as we all are.
I am also rooting for scientific advances such that when the next virus comes out, a vaccine can be developed much faster. That would be a major breakthrough.
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all the technology and science brainpower as you described are focused on this endeavor. It is an unprecedented effort and its success will be an unprecedented achievement of humanity if it is done with such speed.
I hope the success comes as soon as possible. Cant make a baby in a month by making nine women pregnant is a great line.
I am rooting for science as we all are.
I am also rooting for scientific advances such that when the next virus comes out, a vaccine can be developed much faster. That would be a major breakthrough.
Nope and the mods deleted the other thread. I’m sure they have their reasons but it doesn’t make any sense to me.
Lonk - ( New Window )
Just pin it, there's tons of updates in it every community should be aware of and it directly effects all the sports we follow. Its very much a "Giants thread" IMO.
Mods?
Alabama: 3.67 (3.17 % point)
California: 4.68 (3.69 % point)
Connecticut: 1.79 (0.44 % point)
DC: 3.78 (0.10% point)
Florida: 2.23 (1.50 % point)
Georgia: 2.65 (2.41 % point)
Louisiana: 4.89 (1.27 % point)
Massachusetts: 4.86 (0.87 % point)
Nevada: 4.75 (-1.39 % point)
New Jersey: 4.68 (2.04 % point)
New York: 3.98 (3.11 % point)
Pennsylvania: 6.49 (0.45 % point)
Texas: 2.01 (0.88 % point)
Virginia: 2.62 (1.56 % point)
What this suggests is that economic activity is slightly more depressed in areas with earlier shelter in places, but that if we were to expect a "v-shaped" recovery (or a quick recovery once orders are lifted), we should not be holding our breaths.
Such a waste of a perfectly executed gif.
What this suggests is that economic activity is slightly more depressed in areas with earlier shelter in places, but that if we were to expect a "v-shaped" recovery (or a quick recovery once orders are lifted), we should not be holding our breaths.
I have 0 expertise, but just from a commonsense perspective, the optimism for a quick v-shaped recovery seems very misplaced to me. Tens of millions of people don't just instantly find jobs, especially when businesses collapse.
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of a shelter in place and the 2nd week of UI claims data is -0.2. A very weak correlation.
What this suggests is that economic activity is slightly more depressed in areas with earlier shelter in places, but that if we were to expect a "v-shaped" recovery (or a quick recovery once orders are lifted), we should not be holding our breaths.
I have 0 expertise, but just from a commonsense perspective, the optimism for a quick v-shaped recovery seems very misplaced to me. Tens of millions of people don't just instantly find jobs, especially when businesses collapse.
People have suggested that after lifting a shelter-in-place, consumption would return. It will not.
Bumping it to the top is a minor inconvenience sure but literally the day they unpinned it there was at least 1 or 2 new Corona threads outside of this one.
It's just a needless change that is going to result in some % of people to do exactly what the initial post in this thread didn't want.
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In comment 14858014 rocco8112 said:
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all the technology and science brainpower as you described are focused on this endeavor. It is an unprecedented effort and its success will be an unprecedented achievement of humanity if it is done with such speed.
I hope the success comes as soon as possible. Cant make a baby in a month by making nine women pregnant is a great line.
I am rooting for science as we all are.
I am also rooting for scientific advances such that when the next virus comes out, a vaccine can be developed much faster. That would be a major breakthrough.
Think about how much further along we would be toward a treatment or vaccine if China was more forthcoming with information and accurate/truthful information at that.
Or how much better prepared and more protected we would be if the United States were more forthcoming with information and accurate/truthful information at that.
You have a weird fascination with this not being pinned - you were all over the last thread about it. Genuinely curious what the big deal is?
Since its been unpinned we have had other COVID19 threads started which doesn't need to happen (the entire point of a pinned thread either for big news or keeping one topic on one thread).
Why the hard line in the sand?
then the next day it will be announced that COVID can just appear in a person without even being exposed to it...
then someone will say it causes spontaneous combustion..
The economy is shit. No one will ever buy anything again.
No vaccines will work. Treatments that are promising will cause blindness.
We're doomed.
Alabama: 3.67 (3.17 % point)
California: 4.68 (3.69 % point)
Connecticut: 1.79 (0.44 % point)
DC: 3.78 (0.10% point)
Florida: 2.23 (1.50 % point)
Georgia: 2.65 (2.41 % point)
Louisiana: 4.89 (1.27 % point)
Massachusetts: 4.86 (0.87 % point)
Nevada: 4.75 (-1.39 % point)
New Jersey: 4.68 (2.04 % point)
New York: 3.98 (3.11 % point)
Pennsylvania: 6.49 (0.45 % point)
Texas: 2.01 (0.88 % point)
Virginia: 2.62 (1.56 % point)
Kicker - the numbers don't accurately reflect the UI demand. Specifically Florida has a low reported rate, but that is only because their system can't handle the demand. It has crashed and people have been trying for days to "apply". Florida has a predominant service based economy that for the most part is shut down. Some businesses have been able to continue to pay employees and others are operating at a reduced staff (take-out/curbside delivery restaurants). Florida has way more than the 2.23% needing UI.
I think my bigger point is even with this, we barely see any impact of shelter in place on economic activity; whether you have it or don't have it, consumers aren't spending.
That's the big takeaway.
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Everyone complaining about it being unpinned will keep it bumped to the top.
You have a weird fascination with this not being pinned - you were all over the last thread about it. Genuinely curious what the big deal is?
Since its been unpinned we have had other COVID19 threads started which doesn't need to happen (the entire point of a pinned thread either for big news or keeping one topic on one thread).
Why the hard line in the sand?
All over the thread yesterday? I posted once on it.
Certainly, there will be dislocation and permanent shuttering of some businesses. There will be a slow start to various industries. 100% of those curtailing spending aren't going to rush out and spend like drunken sailors, but the percentage isn't going to be zero, either.
Irrational exuberance should not be the order of the day, but neither should irrational gloom.
Can't begin to clear out the wreckage from the bombing until we're allowed out of the air raid shelter, when it's reasonably safe to do so.
But that doesn't answer the question, why shouldn't this be the default thread (which is what pinning is for)? If it isn't a tech issue then I can't figure out a good reason for it.
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In comment 14858125 kicker said:
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of a shelter in place and the 2nd week of UI claims data is -0.2. A very weak correlation.
What this suggests is that economic activity is slightly more depressed in areas with earlier shelter in places, but that if we were to expect a "v-shaped" recovery (or a quick recovery once orders are lifted), we should not be holding our breaths.
I have 0 expertise, but just from a commonsense perspective, the optimism for a quick v-shaped recovery seems very misplaced to me. Tens of millions of people don't just instantly find jobs, especially when businesses collapse.
People have suggested that after lifting a shelter-in-place, consumption would return. It will not.
Fantastic point: that is another very faulty assumption. Let's even set aside the tens of millions out of work with no income, and collapsed businesses. Let's imagine all businesses go right back to normal and all the unemployed people immediately get their jobs back. Will consumption habits return to pre-COVID levels? Hell no! As but one example, what 50 year old with an underlying condition is going to a sporting event or crowded bar the day after the shelter-in-place order gets lifted?
This is going to be (economically) bloody.
Certainly, there will be dislocation and permanent shuttering of some businesses. There will be a slow start to various industries. 100% of those curtailing spending aren't going to rush out and spend like drunken sailors, but the percentage isn't going to be zero, either.
Irrational exuberance should not be the order of the day, but neither should irrational gloom.
Can't begin to clear out the wreckage from the bombing until we're allowed out of the air raid shelter, when it's reasonably safe to do so.
Respectfully, I think you're underestimating the impact this will have on businesses, especially smaller or medium sized ones. I pray I'm wrong and you're right.
But that doesn't answer the question, why shouldn't this be the default thread (which is what pinning is for)? If it isn't a tech issue then I can't figure out a good reason for it.
I assume it's to make room for Sy's reviews and not have half the top page pinned, but I could be wrong. As for yesterday's thread - I posted once and got quoted once (at least as of the last time I looked at it), but that was it.
And I actually do agree that it should be pinned (at least more than the Corona season thread, IMO), but I was just pointing out that being pinned and being active are effectively the same thing as long as posters are using "last post" to sort threads (I can't think of any reason why anyone wouldn't use that setting other than not knowing it exists).
If there are actually posters who are not using "last post" as their default sort on BBI, maybe we should have a message board tutorial pinned also. People make too big a deal about having threads be pinned.
I don't think 1 COVID thread is keeping anyone from seeing Sy's content. I was active in his DB's thread earlier int he week, it was front and center like always.
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In comment 14858141 Mike from SI said:
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In comment 14858125 kicker said:
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of a shelter in place and the 2nd week of UI claims data is -0.2. A very weak correlation.
What this suggests is that economic activity is slightly more depressed in areas with earlier shelter in places, but that if we were to expect a "v-shaped" recovery (or a quick recovery once orders are lifted), we should not be holding our breaths.
I have 0 expertise, but just from a commonsense perspective, the optimism for a quick v-shaped recovery seems very misplaced to me. Tens of millions of people don't just instantly find jobs, especially when businesses collapse.
People have suggested that after lifting a shelter-in-place, consumption would return. It will not.
Fantastic point: that is another very faulty assumption. Let's even set aside the tens of millions out of work with no income, and collapsed businesses. Let's imagine all businesses go right back to normal and all the unemployed people immediately get their jobs back. Will consumption habits return to pre-COVID levels? Hell no! As but one example, what 50 year old with an underlying condition is going to a sporting event or crowded bar the day after the shelter-in-place order gets lifted?
This is going to be (economically) bloody.
I've been saying this since the faulty argument of lifting shelter in place orders to help the economy started a few weeks ago:
Lifting the orders won't do anything. People aren't buying because they're scared, not because they can't go out.
Until the fear is gone, spending will remain on essentials.
Even if we lose 10-20% of consumption, I don't think people realize the magnitude of that loss. That is something along the lines of $1.5 - $3 trillion of economic value, lost. That's 7 - 14% of our total economy.
And the numbers bear it out; even in states that HAVE NOT yet seen shelter in place (by the data), there are incredibly large jumps in UI claims.
It's utterly fascinating how people play away as the Titanic sinks...
But just as it is wrong to believe all is going to be sunshine and roses when the shelter is lifted, I think it wrong to believe all is dog shit and gloom. reality will be somewhere in between. I simply say the patient can't resume breathing until the stranglehold is released. There will be some instant recovery, but certainly not straight back to where we were.
One chap calling from Idaho Falls, a town of 55.000 on the Southeastern large plain of the state, said that people there, where the virus has barely touched down (yet), folks were largely paying not attention whatsoever to guidelines about social distancing, let alone wearing face masks to prevent droplet borne transmission of the virus.
When entire communities pay no heed to the pandemic, or at least no heed to prevention of it's transmission, it's hard to forecast via models.
To my wild guess this thing causes many asymptomatic infections among the young and healthy, and until we get way, way more tests performed on those asymtomatic carries we will have no ability to accurately predict it's course - given folks won't or simply don't take effective measures to stop its spread until it's made serious inroads to a given community.
Beware of some of this anecdotal info being spread. I venture to guess that some of it is plagued with East Coast bias.
Here in the KC area we have had "shelter in place" in the entire metro area for 3 weeks now and we began when we had under 100 confirmed cases. I think it was a few days after the first cases sprang up.
We are essential because we manufacture stuff for the railroads, and we have been screening everyone that enters the facility for 3 weeks as well. We also put up all sorts of signs and postings enforcing social distancing within the foundry.
We have bottles of sanitizer at each workstation and have employees sanitizing twice a shift.
My wife and kid have been away from me for 3 weeks since I'm still at work.
I see people wearing masks when I do venture out to the store, and all of our stores have sanitizing stations and Plexiglas up at registers. They're also sanitizing keypads between uses.
There may be pockets of the country not taking this seriously, but the vast majority of the Midwest is not one of them. All you need to do is look at our slow rate of new cases compared to other areas to see it. Granted much of that is also due to population density.
From speaking to my friends back East, we have been way ahead of what's been being done there. Way ahead.
Heck people are still flying...
This whole ordeal is going to force a new perspective on people, financial stability is more important than a bunch of shit you don't need. Even those of us that have jobs right now (myself included) are terrified of what the future is going to bring. No way will I be out spending money like a fool after this is over (after that first weekend anyway).
This whole ordeal is going to force a new perspective on people, financial stability is more important than a bunch of shit you don't need. Even those of us that have jobs right now (myself included) are terrified of what the future is going to bring. No way will I be out spending money like a fool after this is over (after that first weekend anyway).
I figure I'm gonna come out of this like a rich guy during the great depression (there was a taxi episode where that was Lou's ultimate fantasy). Prices will drop and I'll still be making what I'm making. Instant 10% raise!
Heck people are still flying...
You think people will pack in bars and restaurants after this is over? Jon Taffer was on the other day and he expects all restaurants to do 30 percent less turnover due to new social norms. They are going to be forced to increase prices and people will go out less.
Just because some will doesn't mean all will. Even a small percentage drop is just that, a drop, and many businesses run on small margins.
Heck people are still flying...
Liquidity (how much a dollar is spent) is at its lowest levels ever for cash and checking accounts; it's at its lowest levels since 1973 if you include savings (which means current spending is financed by going into your savings).
Credit card debt, as a fraction of GDP, is 20% of national income. The UI claims coming out suggest that even in non-shelter in place states, consumption is plummeting.
Even if 10 to 20% of people don't spend, what do you think happens to the economy?
This whole ordeal is going to force a new perspective on people, financial stability is more important than a bunch of shit you don't need. Even those of us that have jobs right now (myself included) are terrified of what the future is going to bring. No way will I be out spending money like a fool after this is over (after that first weekend anyway).
What good is short term perspective that faces as we go back to our old ways? Perhaps repeated mistakes that lead to multiple instances of a proper perspective help lead to change down the road. Painful way to learn that I am all too familiar with.
The one thing we can hope is that this craters (finally) the FIRE sector.
The one thing we can hope is that this craters (finally) the FIRE sector.
👍
Fast forward a month and by social distancing we limited the spread, but doesn't that just increase how many people can and will still get it? We are a year away from a vaccine. Why won't we just have to do this again?
In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.
The article goes into further detail about what would be required to change the dynamics of turning commercial TP to consumer TP
https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0 - ( New Window )
Fast forward a month and by social distancing we limited the spread, but doesn't that just increase how many people can and will still get it? We are a year away from a vaccine. Why won't we just have to do this again?
That's been the worry expressed to me when our region has been discussing how heavy handed we want to be about enforcing the stay-in-place order (as well as when to eventually lift it).
The likelihood that this could re-flare up again is high. And if most of the people did not contract it, then we recycle again.
I don't see a world where we let much (if any) domestic or international travel go.
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everyone I know is itching to get back out. People definitely want to go out to dinner again. Things like car shopping will be down, but other "non essential" industries will get back on their feet sooner.
Heck people are still flying...
Liquidity (how much a dollar is spent) is at its lowest levels ever for cash and checking accounts; it's at its lowest levels since 1973 if you include savings (which means current spending is financed by going into your savings).
Credit card debt, as a fraction of GDP, is 20% of national income. The UI claims coming out suggest that even in non-shelter in place states, consumption is plummeting.
Even if 10 to 20% of people don't spend, what do you think happens to the economy?
I'm not saying any of that isn't true. I just don't buy that the vast majority of people who's incomes haven't changed won't go back to spending quicker than some people think. Maybe its more online shopping with less physical contact, but they will spend (IMO).
And a lot of mom + pops in my area have been scrappy, setting up quick online webpage order forms for the items they sell. Many companies large and small just got more sophisticated (one of the few silver linings right now).
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There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.
In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.
The article goes into further detail about what would be required to change the dynamics of turning commercial TP to consumer TP https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0 - ( New Window )
I actually thought this was kind of obvious. People are "hoarding" (buying a little extra than they need because who knows when they have the stuff again) but people are acting like companies get this shit from their local grocery store.
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In comment 14858212 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
everyone I know is itching to get back out. People definitely want to go out to dinner again. Things like car shopping will be down, but other "non essential" industries will get back on their feet sooner.
Heck people are still flying...
Liquidity (how much a dollar is spent) is at its lowest levels ever for cash and checking accounts; it's at its lowest levels since 1973 if you include savings (which means current spending is financed by going into your savings).
Credit card debt, as a fraction of GDP, is 20% of national income. The UI claims coming out suggest that even in non-shelter in place states, consumption is plummeting.
Even if 10 to 20% of people don't spend, what do you think happens to the economy?
I'm not saying any of that isn't true. I just don't buy that the vast majority of people who's incomes haven't changed won't go back to spending quicker than some people think. Maybe its more online shopping with less physical contact, but they will spend (IMO).
And a lot of mom + pops in my area have been scrappy, setting up quick online webpage order forms for the items they sell. Many companies large and small just got more sophisticated (one of the few silver linings right now).
Yes, we've seen this in other areas; and yet, there have been 10 million Americans in 2 weeks (2 weeks!) who lost their jobs. Mom and pop stores staying scrappy cannot be sustained over anything but the short-term, even with the SBA infusion. Consumers can look at these numbers and rightly worry about what's going to happen in the labor market (and for childcare), now that a lot of places are saying May or June.
And the stimulus and UI benefits won't be enough; it's essentially enough to maybe come close to the average American living wage, but in the half of America that is higher than that cost, people are absolutely going to ramp down spending, and significantly.
Again, do the calculations on your own. What is lost GDP if 1% of consumers decrease spending by 20%, 2% of consumers decrease it by 10%, and 7% decrease it by 5%.
Hint: it's 1.4 trillion.
Link - ( New Window )
That's it.
The other sectors not so much. As/if this goes on longer, you will start to see those other shares increase, potentially dramatically.
The one thing we can hope is that this craters (finally) the FIRE sector.
That last part may rile up some people on here lollll
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In the long-term, it may be better for us with a deep and prolonged recession. Getting away from a consumer-driven economy will likely be seen as a net plus 40 years from now, as it means that manufacturing and certain key sectors (healthcare) will be reshored.
The one thing we can hope is that this craters (finally) the FIRE sector.
That last part may rile up some people on here lollll
Those parasites will find another teat to latch onto.
You can view employment losses at 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or 12 months.
Leisure and hospitality was already doing...not great. The big movements are the fact that in one month, we have cratered in a lot of other areas, relative to what they were doing before.
Education and health services was adding a ton of jobs in the past 12 months (500,000), and in the past month they shed about 80,000? That's the issue.
Different Time Frames - ( New Window )
That has to be balanced out with how long drastic measures will allow the economy to limp along, or how much additional long term decline it can endure. As kicker said, there's only so long 'scrappy' cuts it.
Link - ( New Window )
The caveat to those maps as I've seen people point out, is that it's similar to the maps of people in areas who don't have supermarkets within two miles of their homes
There are obvious drawbacks - transportation systems won’t get revenue back. Tolls, trains, etc lose out of commuting stays at reduced rates. Airlines and hotels are fucked but it’s a pandemic - airlines and hotels are fucked regardless. Businesses near offices (lunch spots, bars) lose out. But there are guaranteed to be losers in this whole process and we still need to factor in our collective safety.
Seems like the thing to do is maintain remote work for those who can for as long as needed.
As someone who works in sales and travels a lot under normal conditions I don’t feel like I will want to get on a plane again the rest of this year frankly. But I can also do my job just as well from home, it makes minimal difference especially with video conferencing.
Anyway just a thought.
Google has a new mobility report tracking changes by country, state and county within each state.
Made a liar of me for how good we are doing in the Midwest- although KC metro areas comparable to New York, we like our parks and movement to parks has actually increased since stay at home measures out here. Granted in our parks you aren't on top of one another...
Mobility report for US - ( New Window )
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and why it isn't due to hoarding as many have joked but to a dramatic shift in usage and supply chain logistics.
Quote:
There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.
In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.
The article goes into further detail about what would be required to change the dynamics of turning commercial TP to consumer TP https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0 - ( New Window )
I actually thought this was kind of obvious. People are "hoarding" (buying a little extra than they need because who knows when they have the stuff again) but people are acting like companies get this shit from their local grocery store.
Since I've been home everyday for the past 3 weeks I've noticed that we've used about 5 rolls so far. This is a family of 4. Not sure why my wife went out and bought 180 rolls. I think we're good for a while.
Oscar : 1:16 pm : link : reply
Which could take a while, obviously. I think it would make sense to basically say to people/companies, if you can work remotely you should continue to do so. If you can’t ok we’ll figure out how to incrementally open back up. But a lot of “white collar” jobs are totally manageable remotely and we should take advantage of that.
Even when things normalize, I'll likely be working from home as often as I want
My wife just had her four month doctor's appointment via a tele-video call. It lasted about 12 minutes.
It is amazing what technology can do and what can come of a bad situation like this. With more people using tele-medicine, it should relieve overcrowding in doctor's offices and leave the ER's and Minute-Clinics for more serious cases.
As for working from home, I have been lucky to work from home far before this crisis...so it is business as usual and will continue going forward. I agree this can be accomplished by many white collar fields.
I know around me their takeout business is booming however. There is always a 20 minute wait in the parking lot of any restaurant while they bring out your food. Since the states have shut down the restaurant seating section I would expect to see a chart like this. The question is how many of those "seats" are just being swapped for takeout "seats"?
Quote:
If you want a sobering look as to why a v-shaped recovery is unlikely.
I know around me their takeout business is booming however. There is always a 20 minute wait in the parking lot of any restaurant while they bring out your food. Since the states have shut down the restaurant seating section I would expect to see a chart like this. The question is how many of those "seats" are just being swapped for takeout "seats"?
Yeah, takeout has replaced it partially too.
IIRC, most of the restaurant profit margin comes on the booze, not the food. So even if they have the same volume of diners, they probably saw a decrease in revenues.
I also know there are some additional issues with takeout (hard to up sell on dessert, appetizer, another drink; staggering orders so the kitchen doesn’t get behind; quality of food and therefore radius where people will come for takeout) that probably hurt a bit more.
I think we’ve seen the hurt when restaurants are switching more to a catering, “family meal” model, with steep discounts.
APEIRON Biologics Initiates Phase II Clinical Trial of APN01 for Treatment of COVID-19
• • Regulatory approvals obtained for the treatment of 200 COVID-19 patients in Austria, Germany and Denmark; Austrian government to provide significant financial support
• • APN01 has the potential to block the infection of cells by the novel COVID-19 virus and reduce lung injury
• • APN01 was previously proven to be safe and well tolerated in Phase I and Phase II clinical trials
• • First patient expected to be dosed shortly
Vienna, Austria, 02 April 2020: APEIRON Biologics AG today announced that it has received regulatory approvals in Austria, Germany and Denmark to initiate a Phase II clinical trial of APN01 to treat COVID-19. APN01 is the recombinant form of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (rhACE2), and has the potential to block the infection of cells by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19), and reduce lung injury. The Phase II trial aims to treat 200 severely infected COVID-19 patients, and the first patients are expected to be dosed shortly.
APN01 has a unique dual mode of action. APN01 imitates the human enzyme ACE2, which is used by the virus to enter cells. The virus binds to soluble ACE2/APN01, instead of ACE2 on the cell surface, which means that the virus can no longer infect the cells. At the same time, APN01 reduces the harmful inflammatory reactions in the lungs and protects against acute lung injury (ALI/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
“Based on its unique dual mechanism of action, APN01 has the potential to be the first drug approved to treat COVID-19 that specifically targets the new SARS-CoV-2 virus,” said Peter Llewellyn-Davies, Chief Executive Officer of APEIRON Biologics AG. “We look forward to dosing the first patient in our Phase II trial shortly, with the goal of providing a safe and effective treatment option for severely infected COVID-19 patients in urgent need of help. We are grateful to the regulatory authorities in Austria, Germany and Denmark for rapidly approving this study, and for the commitment of the Austrian Government, which has agreed to fund a significant portion of this trial.”
The randomized, double-blind Phase II trial will compare APN01 to placebo in up to 200 patients at 10 sites in Austria, Denmark and Germany. The primary objective of the trial is to assess the clinical efficacy and safety of APN01 in severe COVID-19 patients using, among other criteria, the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. Secondary objectives include the evaluation of measurable biological biomarker changes following treatment with APN01.
APN01 has been shown to be safe and well-tolerated in a total of 89 healthy volunteers and patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension…………………..
Why is this important? Firstly, trial is in human phase 2 meaning it is already tested in humans for safety and has the approval to move to dosing and efficacy studies. This is huge in terms of timing and potential to help fight the disease in our sickest patients. Compassionate use could be envisaged very shortly depending on initial efficacy. Where the vaccine could take many months, this biologic could potentially be ready for use in the coming months. More importantly, it can be scaled up rapidly so this is a big plus. Let us keep our fingers crossed.
Fast forward a month and by social distancing we limited the spread, but doesn't that just increase how many people can and will still get it? We are a year away from a vaccine. Why won't we just have to do this again?
Back of the envelope, let's say social distancing is working (I think it is) and the infection diminishes. One might expect if we had say, 20% of the population recovered (and assuming the recovered have immunity for a while going forward) then there would be resurgence but at a somewhat reduced rate, since R0 is proportional to the number of susceptible hosts. Herd immunity happens when the number of susceptible hosts (either through vaccination or recovery) is reduced to a low enough number than the virus cannot sustain itself. What I don't know is whether that 20% you mention is a sensible number, because the outcomes are changing as we change our behaviors.
So my opinion is yes, we would have to do it again, but maybe to a lesser extent or more locally, or if we do things really well now, we can limit resurgence through better testing and contact tracing in the future.
APEIRON Biologics Initiates Phase II Clinical Trial of APN01 for Treatment of COVID-19
• • Regulatory approvals obtained for the treatment of 200 COVID-19 patients in Austria, Germany and Denmark; Austrian government to provide significant financial support
• • APN01 has the potential to block the infection of cells by the novel COVID-19 virus and reduce lung injury
• • APN01 was previously proven to be safe and well tolerated in Phase I and Phase II clinical trials
• • First patient expected to be dosed shortly
Vienna, Austria, 02 April 2020: APEIRON Biologics AG today announced that it has received regulatory approvals in Austria, Germany and Denmark to initiate a Phase II clinical trial of APN01 to treat COVID-19. APN01 is the recombinant form of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (rhACE2), and has the potential to block the infection of cells by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19), and reduce lung injury. The Phase II trial aims to treat 200 severely infected COVID-19 patients, and the first patients are expected to be dosed shortly.
APN01 has a unique dual mode of action. APN01 imitates the human enzyme ACE2, which is used by the virus to enter cells. The virus binds to soluble ACE2/APN01, instead of ACE2 on the cell surface, which means that the virus can no longer infect the cells. At the same time, APN01 reduces the harmful inflammatory reactions in the lungs and protects against acute lung injury (ALI/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
“Based on its unique dual mechanism of action, APN01 has the potential to be the first drug approved to treat COVID-19 that specifically targets the new SARS-CoV-2 virus,” said Peter Llewellyn-Davies, Chief Executive Officer of APEIRON Biologics AG. “We look forward to dosing the first patient in our Phase II trial shortly, with the goal of providing a safe and effective treatment option for severely infected COVID-19 patients in urgent need of help. We are grateful to the regulatory authorities in Austria, Germany and Denmark for rapidly approving this study, and for the commitment of the Austrian Government, which has agreed to fund a significant portion of this trial.”
The randomized, double-blind Phase II trial will compare APN01 to placebo in up to 200 patients at 10 sites in Austria, Denmark and Germany. The primary objective of the trial is to assess the clinical efficacy and safety of APN01 in severe COVID-19 patients using, among other criteria, the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. Secondary objectives include the evaluation of measurable biological biomarker changes following treatment with APN01.
APN01 has been shown to be safe and well-tolerated in a total of 89 healthy volunteers and patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension…………………..
Why is this important? Firstly, trial is in human phase 2 meaning it is already tested in humans for safety and has the approval to move to dosing and efficacy studies. This is huge in terms of timing and potential to help fight the disease in our sickest patients. Compassionate use could be envisaged very shortly depending on initial efficacy. Where the vaccine could take many months, this biologic could potentially be ready for use in the coming months. More importantly, it can be scaled up rapidly so this is a big plus. Let us keep our fingers crossed.
Nice! Thanks for sharing this!
I don't know the exact numbers, but you gotta think something like 80 percent of restaurants rely on liquor sales. Booze has to work on significantly higher margins.
I sent this to my friend who conducts research trials for a pharma company to hear his thoughts.
His guess is we'll see results on effects on lung function within weeks to 2ish months.
A couple of his comments:
"I think strong Phase 2 data, like the above example, will lead to rapid FDA approval (if it isn’t already approved for another use in the US) and rapid uptake by docs (drug availability/supply and coverage by insurance providers is an entirely different conversation)"
And that they likely won't wait for Phase 3 to compare it with other Phase 2 drugs but will rather go with what could be implemented.
Also, "this trial is enrolling the sickest of the sick. So if the mortality rate isn’t super impressive, don’t lose hope. This drug still could be useful in patients who aren’t as serious in preventing the disease from getting worse and helping spare them lung function to keep them off a ventilator"
Just being contrarian or is it a policy thing?
And I know about "last post".
I'm glad I can still find a make believe draft conducted by Giants fans, if I need access to it quickly.
Quote:
In comment 14858386 kicker said:
Quote:
If you want a sobering look as to why a v-shaped recovery is unlikely.
I know around me their takeout business is booming however. There is always a 20 minute wait in the parking lot of any restaurant while they bring out your food. Since the states have shut down the restaurant seating section I would expect to see a chart like this. The question is how many of those "seats" are just being swapped for takeout "seats"?
Yeah, takeout has replaced it partially too.
IIRC, most of the restaurant profit margin comes on the booze, not the food. So even if they have the same volume of diners, they probably saw a decrease in revenues.
I also know there are some additional issues with takeout (hard to up sell on dessert, appetizer, another drink; staggering orders so the kitchen doesn’t get behind; quality of food and therefore radius where people will come for takeout) that probably hurt a bit more.
I think we’ve seen the hurt when restaurants are switching more to a catering, “family meal” model, with steep discounts.
Here in Texas the restaurants can sell liquor with their takeouts too (gotta love Texas). Also the liquor stores are packed.
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In comment 14858391 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14858386 kicker said:
Quote:
If you want a sobering look as to why a v-shaped recovery is unlikely.
I know around me their takeout business is booming however. There is always a 20 minute wait in the parking lot of any restaurant while they bring out your food. Since the states have shut down the restaurant seating section I would expect to see a chart like this. The question is how many of those "seats" are just being swapped for takeout "seats"?
Yeah, takeout has replaced it partially too.
IIRC, most of the restaurant profit margin comes on the booze, not the food. So even if they have the same volume of diners, they probably saw a decrease in revenues.
I also know there are some additional issues with takeout (hard to up sell on dessert, appetizer, another drink; staggering orders so the kitchen doesn’t get behind; quality of food and therefore radius where people will come for takeout) that probably hurt a bit more.
I think we’ve seen the hurt when restaurants are switching more to a catering, “family meal” model, with steep discounts.
Here in Texas the restaurants can sell liquor with their takeouts too (gotta love Texas). Also the liquor stores are packed.
Same here (of all places) in California.
It appears that it's a fraction of states, though (New Hampshire, Maryland, Illinois, California, and Texas), along with certain cities/localities (Atlanta, DC).
Just being contrarian or is it a policy thing?
And I know about "last post".
I'm glad I can still find a make believe draft conducted by Giants fans, if I need access to it quickly.
I think it's just a contrarian thing at this point. Someone made the decision and the mods seem to be refusing to even acknowledge it. It's actually very fitting for the moment we are living through.
Quote:
We need to make sure we can see the Dion Lewis interview.
Just being contrarian or is it a policy thing?
And I know about "last post".
I'm glad I can still find a make believe draft conducted by Giants fans, if I need access to it quickly.
I think it's just a contrarian thing at this point. Someone made the decision and the mods seem to be refusing to even acknowledge it. It's actually very fitting for the moment we are living through.
No. They do. Gets dark now and it's sort of a surprise. Didn't I just do lunch?
Quote:
everyone I know is itching to get back out. People definitely want to go out to dinner again. Things like car shopping will be down, but other "non essential" industries will get back on their feet sooner.
Heck people are still flying...
Liquidity (how much a dollar is spent) is at its lowest levels ever for cash and checking accounts; it's at its lowest levels since 1973 if you include savings (which means current spending is financed by going into your savings).
Credit card debt, as a fraction of GDP, is 20% of national income. The UI claims coming out suggest that even in non-shelter in place states, consumption is plummeting.
Even if 10 to 20% of people don't spend, what do you think happens to the economy?
This is kind of amazing stuff. Is it the same for all economy segments? Some people were on thin ice before and now have fallen through. Some people were afloat and maybe still are, but in debt more than they liked. Some were little better off and may be impressed by what it's like now not to be running up enormous card debts -- and liking it. Others had it all and are just annoyed that everything has stopped, that they can't go to their favorite restaurant anymore. All these surely spend and consume differently. What is this experience teaching them about spending and consuming? And what percentage of the whole, given the chance again, is just going to not spend when before they did?
Just being contrarian or is it a policy thing?
And I know about "last post".
I'm glad I can still find a make believe draft conducted by Giants fans, if I need access to it quickly.
I'm glad you can find a make believe draft conducted by Giants fans too, since that's the point of this website. Do you need help finding the CDC site instead?
Also, & this isn't meant to be a PSA, but please call family & friends who are alone/really not leaving the house at all. They'll appreciate it. My 88 year old grandma-bless her soul-is in quaratine at her assisted living house. I've been calling her every other day just to chat & check in. She hasn't said anything, but I'm sure she appreciates hearing from me & my siblings/cousins. This is a trying time for everybody & we need to look out for others, as much as ourselves.
Everyday seems like Friday to me.
Also, & this isn't meant to be a PSA, but please call family & friends who are alone/really not leaving the house at all. They'll appreciate it. My 88 year old grandma-bless her soul-is in quaratine at her assisted living house. I've been calling her every other day just to chat & check in. She hasn't said anything, but I'm sure she appreciates hearing from me & my siblings/cousins. This is a trying time for everybody & we need to look out for others, as much as ourselves.
It’s hard. I asked this a few days ago & I think it’s an important question for everyone. Especially with the majority here being in NY/NJ.
I’m taking walks and getting outside. I’m going to cut the lawn tomorrow & grill. Within reason, you’ve got to get outside and get some sun. Admittedly, I’m staying up later and drinking more regularly - I miss having the structure.
As fares routines, same workout schedule, more time chilling with wife( no surge yet in Bay Area). She is doing a lot of telemedicine
I am still in office, trying to keep distance
A little more comfort food for sure!
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In comment 14858225 kicker said:
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In the long-term, it may be better for us with a deep and prolonged recession. Getting away from a consumer-driven economy will likely be seen as a net plus 40 years from now, as it means that manufacturing and certain key sectors (healthcare) will be reshored.
The one thing we can hope is that this craters (finally) the FIRE sector.
That last part may rile up some people on here lollll
Those parasites will find another teat to latch onto.
stay classy. nothing like rooting for 7 million+ people, many with families and children, to lose their jobs in a sector.
Trying to understand how hard working financial professionals are "parasites" while economists, e.g. the dismal science, are doing God's work... but maybe you're not being serious.
Quote:
In comment 14858257 Mike from SI said:
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In comment 14858225 kicker said:
Quote:
In the long-term, it may be better for us with a deep and prolonged recession. Getting away from a consumer-driven economy will likely be seen as a net plus 40 years from now, as it means that manufacturing and certain key sectors (healthcare) will be reshored.
The one thing we can hope is that this craters (finally) the FIRE sector.
That last part may rile up some people on here lollll
Those parasites will find another teat to latch onto.
stay classy. nothing like rooting for 7 million+ people, many with families and children, to lose their jobs in a sector.
Trying to understand how hard working financial professionals are "parasites" while economists, e.g. the dismal science, are doing God's work... but maybe you're not being serious.
Oh, calm the fuck down, it was a joke.
Quote:
In comment 14858260 kicker said:
Quote:
In comment 14858257 Mike from SI said:
Quote:
In comment 14858225 kicker said:
Quote:
In the long-term, it may be better for us with a deep and prolonged recession. Getting away from a consumer-driven economy will likely be seen as a net plus 40 years from now, as it means that manufacturing and certain key sectors (healthcare) will be reshored.
The one thing we can hope is that this craters (finally) the FIRE sector.
That last part may rile up some people on here lollll
Those parasites will find another teat to latch onto.
stay classy. nothing like rooting for 7 million+ people, many with families and children, to lose their jobs in a sector.
Trying to understand how hard working financial professionals are "parasites" while economists, e.g. the dismal science, are doing God's work... but maybe you're not being serious.
Oh, calm the fuck down, it was a joke.
If that is a joke, please don't be serious.
Stay safe everyone.
Stay safe everyone.
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the site again. I can find other, alternative uses of my time.
Stay safe everyone.
Yeah, go fuck yourself.
And you wonder why the Mods want this thread to go away its because of people like this.
Quote:
In comment 14858257 Mike from SI said:
Quote:
In comment 14858225 kicker said:
Quote:
In the long-term, it may be better for us with a deep and prolonged recession. Getting away from a consumer-driven economy will likely be seen as a net plus 40 years from now, as it means that manufacturing and certain key sectors (healthcare) will be reshored.
The one thing we can hope is that this craters (finally) the FIRE sector.
That last part may rile up some people on here lollll
Those parasites will find another teat to latch onto.
stay classy. nothing like rooting for 7 million+ people, many with families and children, to lose their jobs in a sector.
Trying to understand how hard working financial professionals are "parasites" while economists, e.g. the dismal science, are doing God's work... but maybe you're not being serious.
MAB - you don't earn the right to say "stay classy". Just the other day, you were asking another if their mother blew their brains out. That poster didn't read it as a joke nor did others reading it despite your protestations later to deflect from your tasteless comments. You still haven't apologized. Your righteous indignation with Kicker's comment rings hollow.
Maybe someone you know has a birthday coming up.
Link - ( New Window )
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We need to make sure we can see the Dion Lewis interview.
Just being contrarian or is it a policy thing?
And I know about "last post".
I'm glad I can still find a make believe draft conducted by Giants fans, if I need access to it quickly.
I'm glad you can find a make believe draft conducted by Giants fans too, since that's the point of this website. Do you need help finding the CDC site instead?
It's mostly tongue in cheek and nothing personal.
Though I'd assume many see the benefit of having a readily accessible hub for communication for a mostly NY group of people during a time where mostly NY people are being impacted tremendously and how this site has frequently served as a hub for NY related emergencies. Frequently things are learned on here from people that have feet on the ground much faster than any news or government site. Again, it just seems contrarian and counter to common sense.
For what it's worth, I do think creating mock drafts are like playing dress up. Obviously everyone is free to like what they like.
?? You were the first to note MAB's comment the other day was out of line.
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That was obviously an off the cuff statement meant to be sarcastic but by all means, carry on with the faux outrage.
?? You were the first to note MAB's comment the other day was out of line.
Here's a reminder, Montana - ( New Window )
Stay safe everyone.
Puleeze! Can't we all make an effort, just a small one, to be normal here? Well, semi normal would do. The stress involved is not going to ease right around the corner right now. And reading this thread is to learn stuff and relieve that. Not for the usual insult-swapping that often goes on when we're talking football. I'm just asking . . . .
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But how are people doing mentally? A really challenging time for every person, no matter your age, gender, location, etc. As for me, I'm trying to keep up my routine just like I did pre COVID-19. I get up at the time I usually would, have lunch when I would, dinner, etc. I also go for a morning/evening walk & an afternoon run, while strictly practicing social distancing. God bless people who can stay indoors all day. I'm not one of them. I need the outdoors as much mentally as physically.
Also, & this isn't meant to be a PSA, but please call family & friends who are alone/really not leaving the house at all. They'll appreciate it. My 88 year old grandma-bless her soul-is in quaratine at her assisted living house. I've been calling her every other day just to chat & check in. She hasn't said anything, but I'm sure she appreciates hearing from me & my siblings/cousins. This is a trying time for everybody & we need to look out for others, as much as ourselves.
It’s hard. I asked this a few days ago & I think it’s an important question for everyone. Especially with the majority here being in NY/NJ.
I’m taking walks and getting outside. I’m going to cut the lawn tomorrow & grill. Within reason, you’ve got to get outside and get some sun. Admittedly, I’m staying up later and drinking more regularly - I miss having the structure.
Sean, hope all is well. Thanks for your kind words earlier when I was suspended. Sometimes I push the envelope too hard & was deservedly punished. Anyways, agree. I was joking in a group text w/ work colleagues that I can't believe I'm looking forward to that first Monday-Friday 40 hour work week @ the office. Imagine saying that 2 months ago? Haha. How times have changed.
I obviously agree about getting outside.
Stay well.
These are thought-provoking numbers. Haven't done the thought part yet, but I am amazed out of the box -- that is, that it is so small and suggests more is not possible.
I think my bigger point is even with this, we barely see any impact of shelter in place on economic activity; whether you have it or don't have it, consumers aren't spending.
That's the big takeaway.
Just asking: why and how would we know at this point? Who is at work reporting these numbers? Who is looking at them and then telling others about them? This not real-time stuff. It's news from across the Channel again now.
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What regions of the nation are sheltering down compared to regions that aren't. Link - ( New Window )
The caveat to those maps as I've seen people point out, is that it's similar to the maps of people in areas who don't have supermarkets within two miles of their homes
Really. Another we/they-rich/poor piece from the NYT? What we need, I suppose. Helps in some mysterious way.
When I think about those masses of formerly employed people waiting tables in restaurants it makes me dizzy. Who knew this was the great hinge of America?
APEIRON Biologics Initiates Phase II Clinical Trial of APN01 for Treatment of COVID-19 . . . .
• •This is huge in terms of timing and potential to help fight the disease in our sickest patients. Compassionate use could be envisaged very shortly depending on initial efficacy. Where the vaccine could take many months, this biologic could potentially be ready for use in the coming months. More importantly, it can be scaled up rapidly so this is a big plus. Let us keep our fingers crossed.
Great stuff! Thanks for this and the other (so crassly removed for some unknowable reason from the NFT set).
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That was obviously an off the cuff statement meant to be sarcastic but by all means, carry on with the faux outrage.
?? You were the first to note MAB's comment the other day was out of line.
100% I was, that's why seeing him getting outraged over what Kicker posted is ridiculous
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In comment 14858688 montanagiant said:
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That was obviously an off the cuff statement meant to be sarcastic but by all means, carry on with the faux outrage.
?? You were the first to note MAB's comment the other day was out of line.
Here's a reminder, Montana - ( New Window )
That's why I pointed out the hypocrisy of him getting upset with Kicker
No problem Diver, I can see what you thought that. I should have been more explicit my friend.
Not only has he not apologized.... He add this fuel to the fire as soon as he started posting again.
14857816 MetsAreBack said:
Also, & this isn't meant to be a PSA, but please call family & friends who are alone/really not leaving the house at all. They'll appreciate it. My 88 year old grandma-bless her soul-is in quaratine at her assisted living house. I've been calling her every other day just to chat & check in. She hasn't said anything, but I'm sure she appreciates hearing from me & my siblings/cousins. This is a trying time for everybody & we need to look out for others, as much as ourselves.
You're a good man SFGFNCGiantsFan.
This thread is fascinating in a sociological way. I think the quarantining of our society is starting to show signs of its affect in threads like this one. I didn’t know the thread had been unpinned until coming here to look for it. And now I’m thinking I might see why they did it.
Look, we are all just trying to maintain a level of sanity to get through these crazy times. This thread started as a good resource and information center for everyone to share experiences and updated news. It seems to have spiraled away from its original intent and usefulness.
It’s too bad we can’t all take a step back and take a deep breath and let things simmer down for a bit. That’s just not how the internet works. So maybe we can all try our best, for our fellow posters, for our fellow Giants fans, for our fellow brothers, for our fellow sisters, for our fellow children, for our fellow Americans, to try our best and not bring hostility to this one particular thread. Let’s try and keep it about information sharing and well wishes.
I’m sure my post will be met with a barrage of “well so and so said this and so and so did that” and we won’t be able to get things back on track. But I felt like I had to try. I’m just looking for some sanity, civility, normalcy, and overall basic information. As many of you know, the virus made its way through my Home already. The first 15 or so days of the virus, I came here for my information in the evenings. I didn’t watch any news at all during the day or night. I would just come to this thread and read up and share information and stories with everyone on here. It was great to have that to come to after long days of worrying and also trying to get work done as well as care for my sick wife and 19 month old son.
So maybe we could all try to just holster the mud slinging and make this thread about what it was intended for, which was to share valuable information and experiences about the virus in order to help others navigate through the various situations we may end up facing, or are currently facing.
I hope people take this in to consideration. But I’m not going to count on it.
This thread is fascinating in a sociological way. I think the quarantining of our society is starting to show signs of its affect in threads like this one. I didn’t know the thread had been unpinned until coming here to look for it. And now I’m thinking I might see why they did it.
Look, we are all just trying to maintain a level of sanity to get through these crazy times. This thread started as a good resource and information center for everyone to share experiences and updated news. It seems to have spiraled away from its original intent and usefulness.
It’s too bad we can’t all take a step back and take a deep breath and let things simmer down for a bit. That’s just not how the internet works. So maybe we can all try our best, for our fellow posters, for our fellow Giants fans, for our fellow brothers, for our fellow sisters, for our fellow children, for our fellow Americans, to try our best and not bring hostility to this one particular thread. Let’s try and keep it about information sharing and well wishes.
I’m sure my post will be met with a barrage of “well so and so said this and so and so did that” and we won’t be able to get things back on track. But I felt like I had to try. I’m just looking for some sanity, civility, normalcy, and overall basic information. As many of you know, the virus made its way through my Home already. The first 15 or so days of the virus, I came here for my information in the evenings. I didn’t watch any news at all during the day or night. I would just come to this thread and read up and share information and stories with everyone on here. It was great to have that to come to after long days of worrying and also trying to get work done as well as care for my sick wife and 19 month old son.
So maybe we could all try to just holster the mud slinging and make this thread about what it was intended for, which was to share valuable information and experiences about the virus in order to help others navigate through the various situations we may end up facing, or are currently facing.
I hope people take this in to consideration. But I’m not going to count on it.
Great post
Police officers established roadblocks to restrict the movement in and out of Bnei Brak, where a small number of the ultra-Orthodox residents' apparent failure to comply with government social distancing requirements has prompted a dangerously high rate of contagion.
Why does it seem that the ultra religious of many stripes are so ignorant?
Pinned or unpinned, I’m over it, doesn’t matter. Hopefully the people being assholes can either reel it in or leave.
Police officers established roadblocks to restrict the movement in and out of Bnei Brak, where a small number of the ultra-Orthodox residents' apparent failure to comply with government social distancing requirements has prompted a dangerously high rate of contagion.
Why does it seem that the ultra religious of many stripes are so ignorant?
What is going on down here in Ocean County in Lakewood is very similar. I guess this is what happens when your Ultra Orthodox leaders tell you the Corona virus is not here for you.
Police officers established roadblocks to restrict the movement in and out of Bnei Brak, where a small number of the ultra-Orthodox residents' apparent failure to comply with government social distancing requirements has prompted a dangerously high rate of contagion.
Why does it seem that the ultra religious of many stripes are so ignorant?
And since Facebook tracks my activity, this was the first news item on my wall just now
Rockland County Executive Ed Day demanded that Governor Andrew Cuomo put a containment zone in place around two zip codes - ( New Window )
I'm making a large order of cotton masks for Texas that will ship Monday.
Again, stay safe; I'll bow out.
No need to bow out. Everyone is a bit on edge. Your contributions are tremendous, and truly important in these times to help everyone gain insight and perspective.
In comment 14858934 kicker said:
Again, stay safe; I'll bow out.
Makes everything so much more uncertain. Didn't get a chance to say bye to my coworkers or have any closure, not sure how I'm going to grt job super fast, and complicates my already precarious living situation (lease up in June, can't find a new roommate or apt due to the virus, and don't even know how much money i'll be making)
I would appreciate it if you stayed and continued to contribute.
Makes everything so much more uncertain. Didn't get a chance to say bye to my coworkers or have any closure, not sure how I'm going to grt job super fast, and complicates my already precarious living situation (lease up in June, can't find a new roommate or apt due to the virus, and don't even know how much money i'll be making)
Sorry to hear that. I hope you find something soon.
dept of labor UI - ( New Window )
There is some hope that this is much more widespread than believed. It's why I laughed at all the early models here, without having a firm understanding of who has already had it, especially with so many asymptomatic, it's hard to gauge where this is taking us. Antibody testing is getting ramped up in a few countries, once these number come out we'll have a much better idea how long.
If you can’t afford it and leave they may not be able to backfill first months or longer. Seems like it could work out well for both sides.
Police officers established roadblocks to restrict the movement in and out of Bnei Brak, where a small number of the ultra-Orthodox residents' apparent failure to comply with government social distancing requirements has prompted a dangerously high rate of contagion.
Why does it seem that the ultra religious of many stripes are so ignorant?
They are irresponsible and reckless because of their overly strict interpretations of a Torah written thousands of years ago. Their notion that modern laws, current health crises, etc. don't apply to them is just downright crazy at this point. In this regard, they are no different than Jehovah's Witnesses, Scientologists,etc.
Makes everything so much more uncertain. Didn't get a chance to say bye to my coworkers or have any closure, not sure how I'm going to grt job super fast, and complicates my already precarious living situation (lease up in June, can't find a new roommate or apt due to the virus, and don't even know how much money i'll be making)
And UConn, thanks for the advice, I'm definitely going to talk to the landlords. Hoping they'll be flexible.
However, in a more positive vein, the fact that so many are infected and asymptomatic has a valuable corollary associated with it. As patients will develop an immune response to the virus and form antibodies to Corona, these will allow determination of herd immunity which is very important. Herd immunity is the % of people infected in a community. Depending on the infection in question, there is a critical number to reach and once attained the virus dies out because of the number of immune subjects.
We will also be able to sequence these antibodies from immune patients and mass produce the antibodies in question. The principal presently is to offer plasma from those infected that contain the immune response with the idea that this passive immunity can be of benefit to patients presently ill and critical. There are multiple examples of this in medicine with certain benefit, so this can certainly be applied in this instance.
I remain impressed by the speed of discovery, the collaboration of my colleagues and the overall need to get this right soon. The vaccine required is of primordial importance but these small steps including what I wrote yesterday from Aperion biologics suggest to me that we are soon to be on the right track.
In the meantime, remain vigilant, maintain distancing and I would suggest mask wearing, even if homemade, when we go out into the community. The widespread nature of this disease and all the asymptomatic cases suggest to me that we will certainly have an airborne component more important than we originally thought.
As an aside my wife just purchased vacuum cleaner bags to help us make masks for us and our children and neighbors. These are some of the best filters available. If I can I will try to post a picture when completed.
These posts for me are cathartic but I also hope helpful to keep you all informed. I am on the front lines so I think I hopefully can allay some of the fear and mystery which consumes us all. They are not meant to scare you but to inform, that is their purpose.
Be safe everyone!
One site I read regarding appropriate materials recommended a compromise between efficiency and breath-ability . That way the air being drawn in is filtered through rather than around.
While masks offer some protection, right now the primary thing they are touting is that it knocks down the cough/sneeze/breath aerosol being expelled from an infected person.
One site I read regarding appropriate materials recommended a compromise between efficiency and breath-ability . That way the air being drawn in is filtered through rather than around.
While masks offer some protection, right now the primary thing they are touting is that it knocks down the cough/sneeze/breath aerosol being expelled from an infected person.
I've heard about the hepa filter vacuum bags being used but as you mentioned the more difficult it is to breathe, the likely path of air will be where the mask doesn't fit properly (likely around the nose).
I have created different versions of the cotton masks. I have one version with 3 layers where the middle layer is a denser weave. And the other is 2 layers where a pocket is created. On the recommendation of a pediatrician (you can find the youtube video), she repurposed a 3M Filtrete 2500 air filter. It will be the purple color coded product. She strips off the cardboard and metal mesh. Then cuts the filter to fit the pocket. Note: Be sure to pay attention to the direction of airflow as if it is reversed when inserting in the pocket it can be difficult to breathe through.
One other benefit to the cotton masks in that it creates a barrier that brings a heightened awareness to avoid touching one's face. If you do, you will touch the outer barrier lending an additional layer of protection.
it uses a swiffer pad as filter !!
how to wear HK Mask - ( New Window )
It’s 24 days since my first symptoms. Been fever free for at least 10 days but just now finally get some pep back. Hopefully in a week I’ll be cleared to get back to gen pop (with social distance of course). Looking forward to joining the immunity army.
Very hard to imagine all the suffering around the world on a day like today. I’m very lucky.
The whole Kiss The Ring ceremony is embarrassing. And as a veteran who has served in a combat zone, the insistence on bestowing the title War Time President makes me sick.
However, in a more positive vein, the fact that so many are infected and asymptomatic has a valuable corollary associated with it. As patients will develop an immune response to the virus and form antibodies to Corona, these will allow determination of herd immunity which is very important. Herd immunity is the % of people infected in a community. Depending on the infection in question, there is a critical number to reach and once attained the virus dies out because of the number of immune subjects.
We will also be able to sequence these antibodies from immune patients and mass produce the antibodies in question. The principal presently is to offer plasma from those infected that contain the immune response with the idea that this passive immunity can be of benefit to patients presently ill and critical. There are multiple examples of this in medicine with certain benefit, so this can certainly be applied in this instance.
I remain impressed by the speed of discovery, the collaboration of my colleagues and the overall need to get this right soon. The vaccine required is of primordial importance but these small steps including what I wrote yesterday from Aperion biologics suggest to me that we are soon to be on the right track.
In the meantime, remain vigilant, maintain distancing and I would suggest mask wearing, even if homemade, when we go out into the community. The widespread nature of this disease and all the asymptomatic cases suggest to me that we will certainly have an airborne component more important than we originally thought.
As an aside my wife just purchased vacuum cleaner bags to help us make masks for us and our children and neighbors. These are some of the best filters available. If I can I will try to post a picture when completed.
These posts for me are cathartic but I also hope helpful to keep you all informed. I am on the front lines so I think I hopefully can allay some of the fear and mystery which consumes us all. They are not meant to scare you but to inform, that is their purpose.
Be safe everyone!
Thanks for the great information. Stay safe.
It’s 24 days since my first symptoms. Been fever free for at least 10 days but just now finally get some pep back. Hopefully in a week I’ll be cleared to get back to gen pop (with social distance of course). Looking forward to joining the immunity army.
Very hard to imagine all the suffering around the world on a day like today. I’m very lucky.
My wife’s headaches lingered til about day 17/18. Then she got stomach issues for a few days that would randomly kick in out of nowhere. There’s been a few instances when we wonder if it’s lingering affects of the virus or just life. Tough to tell.
This.
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are an utter embarrassment. Conflicting messages. Dangerous advice. They need to stop, or they need to not be covered.
The whole Kiss The Ring ceremony is embarrassing. And as a veteran who has served in a combat zone, the insistence on bestowing the title War Time President makes me sick.
This.
I was going to say he seemed like a total SOB even before the Ryan era Eagles cap.
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they have a 3 gallon limit on water. Today there was a guy buying 18 gallons and rocking a Buddy Ryan era Eagles' cap.
I was going to say he seemed like a total SOB even before the Ryan era Eagles cap.
And UConn, thanks for the advice, I'm definitely going to talk to the landlords. Hoping they'll be flexible.
Sorry to hear... Best of luck to you.
bradshaw and trueblueinpw - glad to hear both of you are recovering.
Also I believe Matt in SGS and DannyKannel said they were almost recovered.
Best wishes to all those who are positive and haven't recovered yet:
Matt M.
BlueHurricane's wife, possibly himself
bxgiants4
And anybody else who is positive.
And UConn, thanks for the advice, I'm definitely going to talk to the landlords. Hoping they'll be flexible.
Hang in there man. Best of luck.
Stay safe Ned.
It’s 24 days since my first symptoms. Been fever free for at least 10 days but just now finally get some pep back. Hopefully in a week I’ll be cleared to get back to gen pop (with social distance of course). Looking forward to joining the immunity army.
Very hard to imagine all the suffering around the world on a day like today. I’m very lucky.
Good to hear trueblueinpw.
However, in a more positive vein, the fact that so many are infected and asymptomatic has a valuable corollary associated with it. As patients will develop an immune response to the virus and form antibodies to Corona, these will allow determination of herd immunity which is very important. Herd immunity is the % of people infected in a community. Depending on the infection in question, there is a critical number to reach and once attained the virus dies out because of the number of immune subjects.
...
They say that the percentage of the population that has to have acquired immunity (by getting and surviving the disease or vaccination) has to be very, very high to get to "herd immunity" -- 60-95%, depending. We're not going to get there soon, especially without a vaccine, which remains kind of pie in the sky. So why hold this out as a realistic exit from our COVID-19 disaster?
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Big picture, I'm definitely still lucky to have my health and no sick friends or family members at this time. Additionally, my parents have the means to help me out if ever needed, though I think I'll be okay with UI benefits. Fingers crossed on a one month severance... I had JUST gotten hired at my job 7 months ago, and during the one way Zoom meeting where we were laid off, I recalled hearing that severance was only available for people there for over a year. Not sure if that's the case, but hopefully I just misheard, because that'll go a long way towards bridging the gap.
And UConn, thanks for the advice, I'm definitely going to talk to the landlords. Hoping they'll be flexible.
Sorry to hear... Best of luck to you.
bradshaw and trueblueinpw - glad to hear both of you are recovering.
Also I believe Matt in SGS and DannyKannel said they were almost recovered.
Best wishes to all those who are positive and haven't recovered yet:
Matt M.
BlueHurricane's wife, possibly himself
bxgiants4
And anybody else who is positive.
I actually didn’t have symptoms. I’m just relatively confident my wife and kids had it in February. Each had a “viral pneumonia”, tested negative for the flu, had awful coughs, fevers. My wife and oldest both lost sense of smell and taste for a couple of days. It took both my daughters about a week to get over and it took my wife a good 3 weeks. I never got it but felt a little crappy for a day or two. I assume if they had it I would have caught it so I guess I’m asymptomatic. I wish we could find out if we had it for sure.
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In comment 14859058 Sonic Youth said:
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Big picture, I'm definitely still lucky to have my health and no sick friends or family members at this time. Additionally, my parents have the means to help me out if ever needed, though I think I'll be okay with UI benefits. Fingers crossed on a one month severance... I had JUST gotten hired at my job 7 months ago, and during the one way Zoom meeting where we were laid off, I recalled hearing that severance was only available for people there for over a year. Not sure if that's the case, but hopefully I just misheard, because that'll go a long way towards bridging the gap.
And UConn, thanks for the advice, I'm definitely going to talk to the landlords. Hoping they'll be flexible.
Sorry to hear... Best of luck to you.
bradshaw and trueblueinpw - glad to hear both of you are recovering.
Also I believe Matt in SGS and DannyKannel said they were almost recovered.
Best wishes to all those who are positive and haven't recovered yet:
Matt M.
BlueHurricane's wife, possibly himself
bxgiants4
And anybody else who is positive.
I actually didn’t have symptoms. I’m just relatively confident my wife and kids had it in February. Each had a “viral pneumonia”, tested negative for the flu, had awful coughs, fevers. My wife and oldest both lost sense of smell and taste for a couple of days. It took both my daughters about a week to get over and it took my wife a good 3 weeks. I never got it but felt a little crappy for a day or two. I assume if they had it I would have caught it so I guess I’m asymptomatic. I wish we could find out if we had it for sure.
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with a 4 month old. Like for everyone, very troubling and uncertain times. BBI and this thread along with more frequent than usual communication with friends and family help keep my sanity.
Stay safe Ned.
Thanks man. You do the same
1) States are buying PPE and ventilators for themselves because they can't get them from the federal government.
2) The federal government is stopping planes on tarmacs to confiscate these shipments.
3) The federal government is then allowing private distributors like McKesson to transport those confiscated PPE on FEMA planes to recipients determined by federal government. It's unclear what the profit mechanism for these private distributors is or how recipients are chosen.
4) States who had their ordered supplies confiscated turn around and start asking the federal government for supplies, since theirs were confiscated.
5) Kushner then goes on TV to say "it's the FEDERAL stockpile, not the STATE stockpile, you should have planned ahead."
Really unbelievable.
1) States are buying PPE and ventilators for themselves because they can't get them from the federal government.
2) The federal government is stopping planes on tarmacs to confiscate these shipments.
3) The federal government is then allowing private distributors like McKesson to transport those confiscated PPE on FEMA planes to recipients determined by federal government. It's unclear what the profit mechanism for these private distributors is or how recipients are chosen.
4) States who had their ordered supplies confiscated turn around and start asking the federal government for supplies, since theirs were confiscated.
5) Kushner then goes on TV to say "it's the FEDERAL stockpile, not the STATE stockpile, you should have planned ahead."
Really unbelievable.
Japan - I'm no fan of how it's being handled, but this seems a bit outrageous. Do you have a legit detailing it?
https://preorder.cambridgemask.com/
Lasts 3 months, orders now ship mid July. I got in a week ago and was an early June delivery date, so I guess there's been a run up with the newest mask recommendations. Comes out to around $32 each after currency conversion and shipping.
Japan - I'm no fan of how it's being handled, but this seems a bit outrageous. Do you have a legit detailing it?
http://franklinreporter.com/feds-take-all-of-countys-35000-mask-order-targeted-for-health-care-workers/?fbclid=IwAR3WHrFG9lhJPhemGaSPEmKjLiXIrJTVNiDZQyy3kgdXPPMJYYczF8ev2l4
https://www.wcvb.com/article/3-million-masks-ordered-by-massachusetts-were-confiscated-in-port-of-new-york/32021700#
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/02/nation/kraft-family-used-patriots-team-plane-shuttle-protective-masks-china-boston-wsj-reports/
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kushner-stockpile-hhs-website-changed-echo-comments-federal/story?id=69936411
https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/3/21207488/coronavirus-illinois-medical-supplies-wild-west
The governor put Tybee Island back in the beach business -- whether the town liked it or not.
Tybee Island Mayor Shirley Sessions fired back on Saturday, issuing a statement saying she and the town council don't want the beaches reopened now.
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In comment 14859563 japanhead said:
Japan - I'm no fan of how it's being handled, but this seems a bit outrageous. Do you have a legit detailing it?
http://franklinreporter.com/feds-take-all-of-countys-35000-mask-order-targeted-for-health-care-workers/?fbclid=IwAR3WHrFG9lhJPhemGaSPEmKjLiXIrJTVNiDZQyy3kgdXPPMJYYczF8ev2l4
https://www.wcvb.com/article/3-million-masks-ordered-by-massachusetts-were-confiscated-in-port-of-new-york/32021700#
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/02/nation/kraft-family-used-patriots-team-plane-shuttle-protective-masks-china-boston-wsj-reports/
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kushner-stockpile-hhs-website-changed-echo-comments-federal/story?id=69936411
https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/3/21207488/coronavirus-illinois-medical-supplies-wild-west
The reports and studies will be done when this is all over. I suspect some of what these state officials did will be praised and some will be quietly criticized. I also suspect that the Feds will seize control of supplies and dole them out based on what they see as need rather than letting state and local governments decide what they think they need.
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In comment 14859590 BillKo said:
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In comment 14859563 japanhead said:
Japan - I'm no fan of how it's being handled, but this seems a bit outrageous. Do you have a legit detailing it?
http://franklinreporter.com/feds-take-all-of-countys-35000-mask-order-targeted-for-health-care-workers/?fbclid=IwAR3WHrFG9lhJPhemGaSPEmKjLiXIrJTVNiDZQyy3kgdXPPMJYYczF8ev2l4
https://www.wcvb.com/article/3-million-masks-ordered-by-massachusetts-were-confiscated-in-port-of-new-york/32021700#
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/02/nation/kraft-family-used-patriots-team-plane-shuttle-protective-masks-china-boston-wsj-reports/
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kushner-stockpile-hhs-website-changed-echo-comments-federal/story?id=69936411
https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/3/21207488/coronavirus-illinois-medical-supplies-wild-west
So, you would be more comfortable if the Feds seized all supplies and made allocations based on what they see as need instead of letting MA, for example, grab a million masks for its 8900 virus cases of which, let's say 900 require hospitalization? Or Somerset County buying 35000 masks for its 750 cases (that's cases, not hospitalized)? Is it a supply problem or governors and county executives stockpiling far more than what is needed at the moment that is the competition issue? Is it a bad thing to leverage supply chains already in place to order, pack, ship and deliver PPE? Should the current system where FEMA supplements efforts by state and local officials who determine what they need and their priorities be changed to have Uncle Sam step in and take over?
The reports and studies will be done when this is all over. I suspect some of what these state officials did will be praised and some will be quietly criticized. I also suspect that the Feds will seize control of supplies and dole them out based on what they see as need rather than letting state and local governments decide what they think they need.
So the states are supposed to take care of this themselves, and then when they do the Feds should intervene and take over. And then parcel out those supplies based on ??? and use private companies to do the distribution. And then complain that the states aren’t doing enough. I think I got it now. Thanks.
Whether the feds are up to the task is another matter, and that is only partially to do with politics (politics is always going to play a role). Expecting a huge bureaucracy to smoothly handle something of this magnitude, with or without proper planning, is unrealistic. Only time will tell if corruption, greed, or ineptitude massively reigned supreme. There is always going to be some of each element.
If NY had its way, every last bit of everything would be airlifted to NYC, and the power that be has made no secret of this.
And maybe this isn’t just an American thing because I really don’t think other country’s let scientist lead their governments. Anyway, hopefully after all this we’ll find a way to come together and be a better nation and a better world. Be nice to see science and reason get a seat at the proverbial table. And I can certainly think of a few other guests that could be excused from the policy and leadership table.
Link - ( New Window )
If NY had its way, every last bit of everything would be airlifted to NYC, and the power that be has made no secret of this.
The regional governors already know how to share and coordinate. I'm disheartened that they are forced into it.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/patriots/patriots-truck-carrying-300k-masks-to-ny-with-state-police-escort/2101920/ - ( New Window )
And maybe this isn’t just an American thing because I really don’t think other country’s let scientist lead their governments. Anyway, hopefully after all this we’ll find a way to come together and be a better nation and a better world. Be nice to see science and reason get a seat at the proverbial table. And I can certainly think of a few other guests that could be excused from the policy and leadership table.
And maybe this isn’t just an American thing because I really don’t think other country’s let scientist lead their governments. Anyway, hopefully after all this we’ll find a way to come together and be a better nation and a better world. Be nice to see science and reason get a seat at the proverbial table. And I can certainly think of a few other guests that could be excused from the policy and leadership table.
Angela Merkel has a PhD in quantum chemistry. Their response has been superior to ours.
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I wonder if Americans will finally begin to place more value on science and reason. I never understood why smart people and intellectuals are mocked and meatheads are emulated in so many political contests. Is “havin’ a beer with someone” really such a good measure for a leader? Imagine, for instance, if we had high government officials that were scientists instead of lawyers and business people? (I think a really high percentage of US congress has law degree). And not even saying some kind of PhD policy wonk, like, imagine if an ER nurse were able to run for office and make public policy? I bet things would be different if more broad array of interest were really represented in government.
And maybe this isn’t just an American thing because I really don’t think other country’s let scientist lead their governments. Anyway, hopefully after all this we’ll find a way to come together and be a better nation and a better world. Be nice to see science and reason get a seat at the proverbial table. And I can certainly think of a few other guests that could be excused from the policy and leadership table.
Angela Merkel has a PhD in quantum chemistry. Their response has been superior to ours.
Germany is such an interesting place, just a very pragmatic people and relatively strong historically with very little in the way of natural advantages and resources.
That being said, is there anyway we can judge responses yet? Outside of the obvious ones like not having a stockpile of PPE. My question is these countries that had early stay at home in place, won't they just have to wait longer to ride it out to the point until people get back to normal? I don't know what the number is, but there is definitely a percentage of the population that NEEDS to get it before we can go about our lives so there isn't a rush on the hospitals. Unless they come up with a way to test EVERYONE on a regular basis until you have had it or tested positive for antibodies and enforce strict quarantine policies (say threat of jail or massive fines) everyone is essentially going to get it until a vaccine is made, and everything we hear is we are a year from that.
But with 1,295 deaths, Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.4 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and 2.5 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.7 percent.
Another explanation for the low fatality rate is that Germany has been testing far more people than most nations. That means it catches more people with few or no symptoms, increasing the number of known cases, but not the number of fatalities.
“That automatically lowers the death rate on paper,” said Professor Kräusslich.
But there are also significant medical factors that have kept the number of deaths in Germany relatively low, epidemiologists and virologists say, chief among them early and widespread testing and treatment, plenty of intensive care beds and a trusted government whose social distancing guidelines are widely observed.
A German Exception? Why the Country’s Coronavirus Death Rate Is Low - ( New Window )
Just a guess but the law of averages says some other hotspots will develop (are developing like NO, Michigan, Florida, etc) - just as it happened in Washington state initially. NYC is clearly a super dense metro area making it a unique hot spot, but enough other less dense regions have been hit hard to know there's serious risk if not handled correctly.
The good news is Washington state and some other areas have shown it's controllable with good behavior, the unknown is that there are a lot of places who haven't exhibited good behavior.
The testing factor (which is still lagging very far behind in some places like Florida) is where we have failed so completely it's very hard to evaluate any data other than hospitalization and death trends.
It reminds me of a different question. About 20 years ago there was a professional debate about who could call themself an engineer. There were a lot of people in IT saying they were “systems engineers“ or “network engineers” and people in the electrical engineering and ME ranks were like, wtf, you set up a server or a network and now you’re an engineer? No - engineers have at least a BS and many pass rigorous licensing exams.
Anyway, fast forward to today and most of the kids (20 somethings) on my team consider themselves to be “software engineers” or “data scientist”. And let me tell you, they don’t all have bachelor degrees, let alone BS degrees or advanced degrees or - goodness - an engineering license. So it’s kind of funny to me.
Anyway, to the original point, heck yes, engineers should be in leadership positions. Of course, they might not want to be in politics - which is probably part of a bigger problem.
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outside of that, is the US really going to hell in a hand basket? Even within NYC, are things so dire that the system is overwhelmed? How much of continued spread is due to gov't response, vs people being dumb asses, vs it just being a contagious virus?
Just a guess but the law of averages says some other hotspots will develop (are developing like NO, Michigan, Florida, etc) - just as it happened in Washington state initially. NYC is clearly a super dense metro area making it a unique hot spot, but enough other less dense regions have been hit hard to know there's serious risk if not handled correctly.
The good news is Washington state and some other areas have shown it's controllable with good behavior, the unknown is that there are a lot of places who haven't exhibited good behavior.
The testing factor (which is still lagging very far behind in some places like Florida) is where we have failed so completely it's very hard to evaluate any data other than hospitalization and death trends.
My hope is the other areas are not hit like NYC. This is due to the lack of people density that NYC has (even the bigger cities are much smaller people wise, the more rural areas immediately around them, and the fact that we have all been "sheltering at home" (or whatever) for a while now. By rural areas immediately around, I am referring to even places like Houston or Chicago have much smaller actual city areas, and then immediately fall off into suburbs or rural areas. NYC has a massive 5 borough area, and then you are still in relatively dense places.
I am hoping the curves are much flatter outside of NYC. Look at California and Washington state. Yes it hit Seattle, SF, and LA, but they are not seeing the volume as NYC
It reminds me of a different question. About 20 years ago there was a professional debate about who could call themself an engineer. There were a lot of people in IT saying they were “systems engineers“ or “network engineers” and people in the electrical engineering and ME ranks were like, wtf, you set up a server or a network and now you’re an engineer? No - engineers have at least a BS and many pass rigorous licensing exams.
Anyway, fast forward to today and most of the kids (20 somethings) on my team consider themselves to be “software engineers” or “data scientist”. And let me tell you, they don’t all have bachelor degrees, let alone BS degrees or advanced degrees or - goodness - an engineering license. So it’s kind of funny to me.
Anyway, to the original point, heck yes, engineers should be in leadership positions. Of course, they might not want to be in politics - which is probably part of a bigger problem.
Let's see what the approval ratings are in another 6 weeks or so, if the vast majority still has no stimulus checks and there is no indication of when they will.
Look no further than his comments.on the NFL. He believes they will start on time and he thinks we will be back to live events in arenas by August or September. Based on what?
Let's see what the approval ratings are in another 6 weeks or so, if the vast majority still has no stimulus checks and there is no indication of when they will.
Look no further than his comments.on the NFL. He believes they will start on time and he thinks we will be back to live events in arenas by August or September. Based on what?
If you were trying to keep this “non partisan or political” you failed miserably on both accounts.
You guys just have to keep pushing the envelope, don’t you? You won’t be happy until the thread is nuked. Jeezus, man.
+1
I completely disagree. I come to this thread to see if there is any new information, etc., not to hear rants against one politician or another. Its what keeps me off this thread more. I am sure there are many other websites within whichever "political bubble" you live in to go and rant on.
Stress isn’t good for the immune system so be mindful of what you consume for information. My wife and I watch Governor Cuomo every day and we watch Laura Curren who’s our county executive here in Nassau. Anything else we figure we can get from the news media organization which I trust, NYT and Apple News as an aggregate. We also make it a point to take regular breaks from the news media because it can be so stressful. There are stories of great inspiration and hope and acts of bravery and heroism. Just look for them. Get well soon.
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I'm trying to keep this non-partisan or political. I'm just tired of reading and listening to him make proclamations based on I believe, I feel, etc. How about waiting for your experts' opinions instead of your fucking son-in-law and friends. He is so transparent at this point, yet so many people don't care because he says what they want to hear, instead of what they need to hear.
Let's see what the approval ratings are in another 6 weeks or so, if the vast majority still has no stimulus checks and there is no indication of when they will.
Look no further than his comments.on the NFL. He believes they will start on time and he thinks we will be back to live events in arenas by August or September. Based on what?
If you were trying to keep this “non partisan or political” you failed miserably on both accounts.
You guys just have to keep pushing the envelope, don’t you? You won’t be happy until the thread is nuked. Jeezus, man.
We are in a war. Nobody gives a shit about who said what back in January or February. If the country is back to semi normal in September, if the virus is under control and people are going back to work, it will go well for Trump and every incumbent governor. If, on the other hand people are still dying in tents and the country is still shuttered its all over for him and a lot of other politicians. And that will be the least of our problems.
One more thing. As far as the NFL playing, it isn’t up the President and it isn’t up to any Governor. If people think they’re going to get sick and die if they go to a restaurant, theatre or a ball game they’re not going to go. MLB, the cruise companies, Disney and others shutdown before the government told them to. They along with the NFL won’t open up again until people feel safe, not because some politician says they should feel safe.
Stress isn’t good for the immune system so be mindful of what you consume for information. My wife and I watch Governor Cuomo every day and we watch Laura Curren who’s our county executive here in Nassau. Anything else we figure we can get from the news media organization which I trust, NYT and Apple News as an aggregate. We also make it a point to take regular breaks from the news media because it can be so stressful. There are stories of great inspiration and hope and acts of bravery and heroism. Just look for them. Get well soon.
This is agree with, both sides suck and are trying to "still" play politics.
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It needs to be said & I hope you feel better.
I completely disagree. I come to this thread to see if there is any new information, etc., not to hear rants against one politician or another. Its what keeps me off this thread more. I am sure there are many other websites within whichever "political bubble" you live in to go and rant on.
I have found this thread very informative, but also frustrating as there are plenty of people here making proclamations and predictions based on their own opinions. Those who are in related fields and/or have access to the health or economic data have been great here. Some others, and I may be included in earlier posts about social distancing, have not. So, again, I apologize for the rant, but not for my opinion.
I am hoping the curves are much flatter outside of NYC. Look at California and Washington state. Yes it hit Seattle, SF, and LA, but they are not seeing the volume as NYC
just saw that new orleans COVID19 death rate is 38 per 100,000, twice as high as NYCs death rate of 19 per 100,000.
there is definitely volume outside of NYC and north jersey. MA, MI and Louisiana look to be getting the worst of it right now relative to their state populations.
This is agree with, both sides suck and are trying to "still" play politics.
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"I sit around all day watching news conferences from Trump, Cuomo and Newsom, not because I like any of these politicians but because I can't trust the mass media to accurately report on what the policy makers are saying or doing. And you know what ? I’m also tired of listening to him patting himself on the back and wasting time talking about nonsense. At the start of these pressers he should give a high level overview, announce any presidential policy actions, then STFU and let the doctors and the policy experts speak. I think we could all do without these stupid questions from the press. They should be asking for details about whats being done. Instead we have to listen to a bunch of stupid gotcha questions about whose fault it is, and what was said weeks of months ago ."
This is agree with, both sides suck and are trying to "still" play politics.
Agree about the press. But, I feel the press these days has become nothing more than an extension of the partisanship in politics. There is no even reporting and true journalism seems to be going by the wayside. It is as if every TV "journalist" thinks they are a talk show host and every print "journalist" thinks they are a columnist. That is why I try to read/watch a few different sources on the same topic and try to piece together the middle ground.
100% agree, and this is why the MSM is losing viewers daily. For some reason they think their job is not to inform, but to tell us what to think and what is right/wrong from their POV of course.
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I wonder if Americans will finally begin to place more value on science and reason. I never understood why smart people and intellectuals are mocked and meatheads are emulated in so many political contests. Is “havin’ a beer with someone” really such a good measure for a leader? Imagine, for instance, if we had high government officials that were scientists instead of lawyers and business people? (I think a really high percentage of US congress has law degree). And not even saying some kind of PhD policy wonk, like, imagine if an ER nurse were able to run for office and make public policy? I bet things would be different if more broad array of interest were really represented in government.
And maybe this isn’t just an American thing because I really don’t think other country’s let scientist lead their governments. Anyway, hopefully after all this we’ll find a way to come together and be a better nation and a better world. Be nice to see science and reason get a seat at the proverbial table. And I can certainly think of a few other guests that could be excused from the policy and leadership table.
Would you include engineers? They are not scientists but have related educational backgrounds. We have had two of those in the last 100 years.
Why how thrilling. To think of being able to steer one of those huge things just a puffin’ and a steamin’ and ringin’ that little bell – ding dong, ding dong.
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In comment 14859943 PatersonPlank said:
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"I sit around all day watching news conferences from Trump, Cuomo and Newsom, not because I like any of these politicians but because I can't trust the mass media to accurately report on what the policy makers are saying or doing. And you know what ? I’m also tired of listening to him patting himself on the back and wasting time talking about nonsense. At the start of these pressers he should give a high level overview, announce any presidential policy actions, then STFU and let the doctors and the policy experts speak. I think we could all do without these stupid questions from the press. They should be asking for details about whats being done. Instead we have to listen to a bunch of stupid gotcha questions about whose fault it is, and what was said weeks of months ago ."
This is agree with, both sides suck and are trying to "still" play politics.
Agree about the press. But, I feel the press these days has become nothing more than an extension of the partisanship in politics. There is no even reporting and true journalism seems to be going by the wayside. It is as if every TV "journalist" thinks they are a talk show host and every print "journalist" thinks they are a columnist. That is why I try to read/watch a few different sources on the same topic and try to piece together the middle ground.
100% agree, and this is why the MSM is losing viewers daily. For some reason they think their job is not to inform, but to tell us what to think and what is right/wrong from their POV of course.
and it is frustrating not having an answer on whether I had it, still have it, am immune, etc.
My good friend's fiance is lying in a hospital bed scared shitless that her diagnosed covid doesn't worsen. So, I can handle personal frustration.
In this era of instant communication, instant gratification, it's hard to realize that progress in testing, treatment, manufacture doesn't just turn on like tap water. It seems like an eternity, but it has only been weeks. The amount of progress in that time is astounding.
NYC is one of worst spots in the world, but the guv is getting praise because he talks pretty. Others sound like buffoons, so people look at them as such. The truth is somewhere in between. Neither the prez or the guv are as bad or good as they look.
and it is frustrating not having an answer on whether I had it, still have it, am immune, etc.
My good friend's fiance is lying in a hospital bed scared shitless that her diagnosed covid doesn't worsen. So, I can handle personal frustration.
In this era of instant communication, instant gratification, it's hard to realize that progress in testing, treatment, manufacture doesn't just turn on like tap water. It seems like an eternity, but it has only been weeks. The amount of progress in that time is astounding.
NYC is one of worst spots in the world, but the guv is getting praise because he talks pretty. Others sound like buffoons, so people look at them as such. The truth is somewhere in between. Neither the prez or the guv are as bad or good as they look.
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and others, my lungs aren't quite right.
and it is frustrating not having an answer on whether I had it, still have it, am immune, etc.
My good friend's fiance is lying in a hospital bed scared shitless that her diagnosed covid doesn't worsen. So, I can handle personal frustration.
In this era of instant communication, instant gratification, it's hard to realize that progress in testing, treatment, manufacture doesn't just turn on like tap water. It seems like an eternity, but it has only been weeks. The amount of progress in that time is astounding.
NYC is one of worst spots in the world, but the guv is getting praise because he talks pretty. Others sound like buffoons, so people look at them as such. The truth is somewhere in between. Neither the prez or the guv are as bad or good as they look.
Agree and while I have preferred listening to Cuomo over other politicians, I think his poise is being given too much credit. He still has plenty to be criticized for as well. In general, I would rather politicians be limited in their talking points about the virus itself. That should be left to healthcare professionals and scientists who can speak in layman (or near layman) terms. They can speak about actual policy and operations.
Also, I agree that the progress being made in NYC, NYS, and nationally in just a few weeks is praiseworthy. But, there is also plenty to be critical of. For example, what is up with the naval hospital ship? We knew it was coming, we knew it's capacity and what types of patients would be allowed on board and yet it was about at 10% capacity yesterday because regular patients were not being sent there. I assu,e that will change, but it makes me veyr curious how the Javits "hospital" will fare. Unlike in Wuhan, where they were able to build makeshift hospitals in a week, we don't have the space for it. So more makeshift space may be needed in a hurry.
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In comment 14859826 Eric on Li said:
I am hoping the curves are much flatter outside of NYC. Look at California and Washington state. Yes it hit Seattle, SF, and LA, but they are not seeing the volume as NYC
just saw that new orleans COVID19 death rate is 38 per 100,000, twice as high as NYCs death rate of 19 per 100,000.
there is definitely volume outside of NYC and north jersey. MA, MI and Louisiana look to be getting the worst of it right now relative to their state populations.
I was noticing this too (also they same with California and Massachusetts vs Louisiana). I’m guessing the higher obesity rates (therefore more likely to have other Comorbidities )
Just about everyone will have fault in this across government no matter the political party. We were not prepared as a country.
Unfortunately everyone is looking for a scapegoat but MANY are to blame and that goes back several administrations. Be part of the solution moving forward and focus less on "we should have". Adapt, maintain flexibility and overcome.
For all the love Cuomo gets I hear the most complaining by him. Yes he should have had some stockpiles NYC being what it is which trickles down to the current and former Mayor. Seems that city more so than any other would have been better prepared for something like this.
And how is “hope” defined.
We could do that. Or we could operate on somber, modest, fact-based truth.
I wonder which one has the better chance of saving the most lives and bringing a quicker end to this crisis.
Just about everyone will have fault in this across government no matter the political party. We were not prepared as a country.
Unfortunately everyone is looking for a scapegoat but MANY are to blame and that goes back several administrations. Be part of the solution moving forward and focus less on "we should have". Adapt, maintain flexibility and overcome.
For all the love Cuomo gets I hear the most complaining by him. Yes he should have had some stockpiles NYC being what it is which trickles down to the current and former Mayor. Seems that city more so than any other would have been better prepared for something like this.
I'm sorry, but cold, hard facts are needed here. For all the "hope", people didn't overwhelmingly adhere to various stay at home ordinances until it hit home for them. When cases rose and deaths started to be real, people started to listen, which was too late.
This Bud's for you - ( New Window )
I do know if you take something away from people they tend to resist. So if you start with telling people to stay in for two months how many people actually follow the first month? Human nature is that many would still go out and then when things get bad there would be more adherence.
I do know if you take something away from people they tend to resist. So if you start with telling people to stay in for two months how many people actually follow the first month? Human nature is that many would still go out and then when things get bad there would be more adherence.
Do you know how pissed people are going to be when if they prolong the date? It puts undue pressure on a decision not to extend. And people will be like fuck this because they were lied to and that point will stop listening. The first rule in the CDC for all this is to be honest with the people, because as soon as you lose their trust, everything becomes questioned, a lie, misinformation etc.
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fell on deaf ears in January of 2017 when he gave a speech at Georgetown.
He's the brightest star in all of this.
Link - ( New Window )
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In comment 14860067 XBRONX said:
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fell on deaf ears in January of 2017 when he gave a speech at Georgetown.
He's the brightest star in all of this.
Matt you might wish to watch the video on this link from January 2020. Things are not as black and white as some are portraying. Link - ( New Window )
Well there was the report that the proposal by Azar for masks and ventilators in the beginning of Feb for the national stockpile got cut by 75 percent. That in retrospect is looking like a very bad mistake any way you can cut it.
That said they need to do something in NYC about the damn parks. They are slammed with people. I know people need some kind of place to go because most people don’t have private outdoor space in the city but all these controls take a hit if there are hundreds or thousands of people mingling in the parks every nice day.
Than why give a date at all?
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In comment 14860084 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14860067 XBRONX said:
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fell on deaf ears in January of 2017 when he gave a speech at Georgetown.
He's the brightest star in all of this.
Matt you might wish to watch the video on this link from January 2020. Things are not as black and white as some are portraying. Link - ( New Window )
Well there was the report that the proposal by Azar for masks and ventilators in the beginning of Feb for the national stockpile got cut by 75 percent. That in retrospect is looking like a very bad mistake any way you can cut it.
There was also the enormous shipment of ventilators and masks that we sent to China.
Link - ( New Window )
Those numbers don't mean anything unless we know exactly the point in time they contracted the virus and if they develop symptoms in the future. Asymptompatic carriers have been estimated from anywhere from 25 percent to 50 percent. Nothing about that study seems to conflict with that information.
I just wikied the centre for evidenced based medicine and I'm officially skeptical of them. They claim that there is no evidence that carbohydrate based sports drinks help sports performance when I know that's bullshit. Very simply put, in anaerobic endeavors you blow through glycogen stores until you start using fat as fuel which is okay for aerobic activities, but woefully suboptimal for anaerobic endeavours. The best way to replenish fast is with sugar. How they found evidence to the contrary is perplexing and would go against pretty much decades of observation from people that surround sport. They also said tamiflu doesn't work, but I can't speak to that.
I mean they problems with looking at a study that is all of four days old would be obvious, but the guy is ready to make sweeping proclamations and observations? BS
If you believe China's #s, I got a bridge to sell ya.
& I guarantee you there are BBIers who had this illness earlier this year & showed no symptoms whatsoever. There are probably BBIers who have it now who likewise have no symptoms. If you don't have symptoms, you're not getting tested currently. So that fouls up the math up.
If you believe China's #s, I got a bridge to sell ya.
& I guarantee you there are BBIers who had this illness earlier this year & showed no symptoms whatsoever. There are probably BBIers who have it now who likewise have no symptoms. If you don't have symptoms, you're not getting tested currently. So that fouls up the math up.
They Were the Last Couple in Paradise. Now Their Resort Life Continues. ($) - ( New Window )
What an optimist
If you believe China's #s, I got a bridge to sell ya.
& I guarantee you there are BBIers who had this illness earlier this year & showed no symptoms whatsoever. There are probably BBIers who have it now who likewise have no symptoms. If you don't have symptoms, you're not getting tested currently. So that fouls up the math up.
Agree with everything in this post.
Yes sir. I’m well stocked and bunkering down through it all, in Tribeca.
We are passed that in NY alone. We are talking over 1,000 every day.
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the # of cases world wide, the # of deaths world wide, the mortality rate, & how many have contracted it/will contract. Everyone is, for the most part, just flying blind when it comes to crunching the #s.
If you believe China's #s, I got a bridge to sell ya.
& I guarantee you there are BBIers who had this illness earlier this year & showed no symptoms whatsoever. There are probably BBIers who have it now who likewise have no symptoms. If you don't have symptoms, you're not getting tested currently. So that fouls up the math up.
Correct. And that is why all the conclusions and finger pointing we are hearing now is garbage.
That’s not true. There are plenty of reasons to point fingers.
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I expect we'll be seeing 500 plus deaths a day this week. Yikes.
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We are passed that in NY alone. We are talking over 1,000 every day.
Funny cuomo today said recoveries are up, deaths are down, people going to the hospital is down and people going to icu is down, although it is only a 3 day stretch it could be trending that way...
April 1 - 5k (+1k vs. previous day)
April 2 - 6k (+1k vs. previous day)
April 3 - 7.1k (+1.1k vs. previous day)
April 4 - 8.45k (+1.3k vs. previous day)
This has obviously already be an enormous tragedy already, but if the trend continues and NYC's peak is 5-10 days away we are going to potentially see several days in the next few weeks with single day death totals beyond 9/11. It's perhaps days away and it's still incomprehensible.
US Coronavirus Cases - ( New Window )
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In comment 14860183 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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I expect we'll be seeing 500 plus deaths a day this week. Yikes.
.
We are passed that in NY alone. We are talking over 1,000 every day.
Funny cuomo today said recoveries are up, deaths are down, people going to the hospital is down and people going to icu is down, although it is only a 3 day stretch it could be trending that way...
Gov. Cuomo is only speaking about NY numbers. Annapolis Mike and SanFran are referring to national numbers, I presume. We will likely see 1000 deaths/day for all states.
He is dead. Hazmat teams cleaned out his house. He went out and did whatever he wanted with no fear of catching what eventually ended his life. I’m not a political person and I’m not trying to make a political statement but... by god I wonder how many lives have been lost the same exact way?
At what point do we say enough is enough with this company? - ( New Window )
My 25 year old cousin was sick as a dog this past week. Fever, body aches, dry cough...she also has asthma. Thankfully I talked to her today & she's on the mend. Thank God. But she didn't get tested so who knows if she had COVID-19? I think she probably did, but we need more testing STAT.
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In comment 14860162 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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the # of cases world wide, the # of deaths world wide, the mortality rate, & how many have contracted it/will contract. Everyone is, for the most part, just flying blind when it comes to crunching the #s.
If you believe China's #s, I got a bridge to sell ya.
& I guarantee you there are BBIers who had this illness earlier this year & showed no symptoms whatsoever. There are probably BBIers who have it now who likewise have no symptoms. If you don't have symptoms, you're not getting tested currently. So that fouls up the math up.
Correct. And that is why all the conclusions and finger pointing we are hearing now is garbage.
That’s not true. There are plenty of reasons to point fingers.
One finger in particular.
He is dead. Hazmat teams cleaned out his house. He went out and did whatever he wanted with no fear of catching what eventually ended his life. I’m not a political person and I’m not trying to make a political statement but... by god I wonder how many lives have been lost the same exact way?
At what point do we say enough is enough with this company? - ( New Window )
I mean to be fair one side is playing it up and the other just saying how great a job people are doing. But my Dad is hooked on the cable news and he knows how dangerous it is for people his age. They have been very clear on that, they don't want their target audience dropping dead. That is why its so sad to see the politicization of this on both sides because people have no fucking idea what to believe.
I see both sides bringing thing up which bolster their bias while ignoring inconvenient things that are inconvenient to their beliefs.
It is dangerous to parrot unproven treatments to the general public. A couple in Phoenix took what they thought was being Trumpeted, but it turns out they took chloroquine phosphate. He died and the wife is in ICU. Chemistry is hard.
And also there are people that desperately need it to treat diseases like lupus and they might not be able to get it when they need it.
Which still is a fraction of heart disease.
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I'm talking 500 deaths a day in the US. That would add up to 3,500 deaths alone this week. Heartbreaking. Obviously NY/NJ/CT are getting the brunt of it now, but this bitch is going to be everywhere before too long. Just because it hasn't effected you personally yet/your community, don't think it isn't coming. It is.
Which still is a fraction of heart disease.
Yeah, but it's on top of heart disease....meaning all the other crap we deal with as humans is still going on.
Yes, but I thought he also made a very important point...that deaths lag behind the settling of the curve. So while we are going to have a rough two weeks, maybe - just maybe - things will start to level........
This is going to be a brutal two weeks as Fauci said.
Please be smart people.
Please be smart people.
To be clear - he died taking a drug that sounded similar to what was being Trumpeted. They took a chemical that is used to clean aquariums. He died and his wife is in ICU.
This is going to be a brutal two weeks as Fauci said.
13,000 die every week from heart disease in the US.
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hydroxychloroquine. For the love of God, you have a lot to lose if you take a drug that hasn't been tested & proven to treat COVID-19. As Diver Down mentioned, a man died taking this.
Please be smart people.
To be clear - he died taking a drug that sounded similar to what was being Trumpeted. They took a chemical that is used to clean aquariums. He died and his wife is in ICU.
Please be smart people.
Honestly blew my mind those dumbasses lived as long as they did. And of course when they interviewed her she was whining how she was a victim. Lady you and your husband didn't even have it, ran out to the store, bought fish tank cleaner, and bought up what knew what were essentially limited supplies for something they didn't even have. Selfish and dumb.
I see both sides bringing thing up which bolster their bias while ignoring inconvenient things that are inconvenient to their beliefs.
I agree completely.
A 4-year-old Malayan tiger named Nadia tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, after she, her sister, two Amur tigers, and three African lions developed dry coughs, the zoo said in a statement. The animals are all expected to recover.
The tiger was tested “out of an abundance of caution,” the zoo said, after a person who was asymptomatically infected with the virus cared for them.
“This is the first time we know of, or from any of the people we’ve been in contact with, that an animal has gotten sick with COVID,” Dr. Paul Calle, chief veterinarian at the Bronx Zoo, told the New York Daily News.
You cant pass heart disease or cancer to other people. So isn't it something of an apples to oranges type situation?
There is a larger social impact to something like this. When did heart disease cancel sport seasons? Close schools? People can't even see loved ones in elder care facilities, God forbid the bug get in one. If left to spread wouldn't the deaths mount even more with the virus then they already might?
Front line healthcare workers also are not at risk of getting sick from treating heart disease. I also don't remember ice truck morgues, prisoner releases, or entire hospitals clearing out to treat just heart disease like they had to do in NYC.
I am not making light of these issues, all of us have likely had our lives touched in a negative way by heart disease or cancer. I know I have. But, I think the acute nature of this virus and the fact it is spread person to person makes it different than these other major causes of death. Many die in auto accidents too, but it doesn't ripple out into society like this thing does.
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In comment 14860281 Big Al said:
How about you go ahead and research that yourself there, chief?
I prefer to wait for actual non partial sources to study and report which is the point I have been making.
Good for you. I am sure you have interesting definitions of “non partial sources”...
And I was talking to Big Al, not you!
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In comment 14860284 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 14860281 Big Al said:
How about you go ahead and research that yourself there, chief?
I prefer to wait for actual non partial sources to study and report which is the point I have been making.
Good for you. I am sure you have interesting definitions of “non partial sources”...
All you have to do is avoid the editorial page, accept that what you might want to believe isn't always exactly how things are playing out, and read multiple sources.
You cant pass heart disease or cancer to other people. So isn't it something of an apples to oranges type situation?
There is a larger social impact to something like this. When did heart disease cancel sport seasons? Close schools? People can't even see loved ones in elder care facilities, God forbid the bug get in one. If left to spread wouldn't the deaths mount even more with the virus then they already might?
Front line healthcare workers also are not at risk of getting sick from treating heart disease. I also don't remember ice truck morgues, prisoner releases, or entire hospitals clearing out to treat just heart disease like they had to do in NYC.
I am not making light of these issues, all of us have likely had our lives touched in a negative way by heart disease or cancer. I know I have. But, I think the acute nature of this virus and the fact it is spread person to person makes it different than these other major causes of death. Many die in auto accidents too, but it doesn't ripple out into society like this thing does.
Thats why I'm saying we should have some perspective on this. People are scared because its new and a contagious disease. But understanding risk is much different. The reason all this is closing is because our hospitals aren't prepared to have a major killer, like heart disease, just pop up out of nowhere. This is the reason we need to shut things down.
But think about that for a second. Heart Disease will kill a similar amount of people this year in this country, but yet everywhere I go I see people shoving garbage down their gullets. Shit I still see people drinking and eating garbage during a time when they should be keeping their immune systems strong. Its a giant joke right now, the quarantine 15. Stastically speaking its way more likely you'll die of heart disease than some random contagion that comes along every century or so. The sad truth is that if people actually took better care of themselves we wouldn't need to worry so much. The only difference is that it doesn't seem acute, until it is and that last weekend bender and you dropped dead. I mean remember that Venezuala story where they thought people were getting poisoned. Correct me if I'm wrong but it was just a bunch of "healthy" people dropping dead from heart attacks doing what they usually do, but just a little bit harder.
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In comment 14860292 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Yes, multiple people saw this coming. And if we had confronted this aggressively @ the start, we wouldn't be leading the world in the # of cases & soon to be deaths.
It was easy to see this was a threat to the USA. You didn't need to be a genius or need any fancy spy tools or analytics. Open source information and common sense.
How did Fauci miss it late a January? Link - ( New Window )
Beats me, but when China put 60 million in Hubei on a real lockdown, not the US style,and some type of restriction on 700 million, someone should have asked "What the hell is going on over there?" Normal flu my ass.
Then, when they had unknown community spread in Iran and Italy etc. It didn't take a genius to realize there was certainly community spread here in the US. Then do the math on hospitalizations caused by this thing.
Big theat. A quicker and better action to deal with the threat, especially in a place like New York Cityz snd things would be better right now.
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to heart disease and such. In addition to the points already made that these virus deaths are in addition to deaths from other causes.
You cant pass heart disease or cancer to other people. So isn't it something of an apples to oranges type situation?
There is a larger social impact to something like this. When did heart disease cancel sport seasons? Close schools? People can't even see loved ones in elder care facilities, God forbid the bug get in one. If left to spread wouldn't the deaths mount even more with the virus then they already might?
Front line healthcare workers also are not at risk of getting sick from treating heart disease. I also don't remember ice truck morgues, prisoner releases, or entire hospitals clearing out to treat just heart disease like they had to do in NYC.
I am not making light of these issues, all of us have likely had our lives touched in a negative way by heart disease or cancer. I know I have. But, I think the acute nature of this virus and the fact it is spread person to person makes it different than these other major causes of death. Many die in auto accidents too, but it doesn't ripple out into society like this thing does.
Thats why I'm saying we should have some perspective on this. People are scared because its new and a contagious disease. But understanding risk is much different. The reason all this is closing is because our hospitals aren't prepared to have a major killer, like heart disease, just pop up out of nowhere. This is the reason we need to shut things down.
But think about that for a second. Heart Disease will kill a similar amount of people this year in this country, but yet everywhere I go I see people shoving garbage down their gullets. Shit I still see people drinking and eating garbage during a time when they should be keeping their immune systems strong. Its a giant joke right now, the quarantine 15. Stastically speaking its way more likely you'll die of heart disease than some random contagion that comes along every century or so. The sad truth is that if people actually took better care of themselves we wouldn't need to worry so much. The only difference is that it doesn't seem acute, until it is and that last weekend bender and you dropped dead. I mean remember that Venezuala story where they thought people were getting poisoned. Correct me if I'm wrong but it was just a bunch of "healthy" people dropping dead from heart attacks doing what they usually do, but just a little bit harder.
Holy crap. This virus takes root in a nursing home and decimates it. Stop with the moronic comparisons to diseases which are result of growing old. 8000 people die every day for some reason or another. Pandemics are really big deals and would kill millions of people if we just went about business as usual. And yes I have a mother in law in a nursing home and was furloughed this week. Cut the not a big deal BS.
This CV19 wasn't taken seriously enough, yes, but the "Root Cause" is China and its lack of honesty in all of this from start to finish. Blaming us was a tell-tale sign of the TRUTH: they likely either developed it in a lab or harnessed it from an infected animal or person or something. Then it got out their containment.
Now we have a world epidemic and problem. At the end of the day, China will get the brunt of the world blame and for good reason: it flipping started there
This CV19 wasn't taken seriously enough, yes, but the "Root Cause" is China and its lack of honesty in all of this from start to finish. Blaming us was a tell-tale sign of the TRUTH: they likely either developed it in a lab or harnessed it from an infected animal or person or something. Then it got out their containment.
Now we have a world epidemic and problem. At the end of the day, China will get the brunt of the world blame and for good reason: it flipping started there
It's more dangerous than the "regular flu" right now because we don't have the tool box to deal with it like we have with the flu.
But eventually it will seem less dangerous, I predict. Once we have a vaccine (we will) and the right cocktail of meds to stifle this thing.
I also think we will eventually find out that waaay more people have already been infected by it and came through it healthy with relatively mild symptoms.
It's a very logical explanation for it's sudden dramatic onslaught. Did you see Snickers' post a day ago? Very professional summary of a lot of what's gone down with Covid-19.
We'll look back at this as alarming, but "just another day" type of pandemic in retrospect.
Which doesn't make it any less alarming NOW for those susceptible.
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My neighbor passed away three days ago from this virus. He and his wife (who suffers from Alzheimer’s and dementia) live mere feet from where my children play. My wife texted him two weeks ago to ask him if he needed any help getting anything (he was 75 years old), and he said thanks but no thanks, that the “illness is psychologically killing us by means of the press.” And that it is “over-hyped for sure.” I know what news channel he was watching.
He is dead. Hazmat teams cleaned out his house. He went out and did whatever he wanted with no fear of catching what eventually ended his life. I’m not a political person and I’m not trying to make a political statement but... by god I wonder how many lives have been lost the same exact way?
At what point do we say enough is enough with this company? - ( New Window )
I mean to be fair one side is playing it up and the other just saying how great a job people are doing. But my Dad is hooked on the cable news and he knows how dangerous it is for people his age. They have been very clear on that, they don't want their target audience dropping dead. That is why its so sad to see the politicization of this on both sides because people have no fucking idea what to believe.
They might be saying that now but they weren’t earlier, at a time when many were saying to start social distancing. Click on that link... it’s frighteningly bad. If I was an older person brainwashed by that channel, you bet your ass I’d be outside spreading it to other people. They reached a point where it was so in your face bad that they just had to start telling the truth.
From what I've witnessed of human behavior in 65 years of living, it's highly unlikely senior citizens are among the demographic slices that have spread this scourge wide so quickly.
And many of the young who are the most likely viral vectors and are still behaving as if it doesn't affect them (it largely doesn't) could have gotten the info about Covid 19 being a killer of the old and health compromised from NPR news sources.
Or the NYT, Wash Post, LA Times, or CNN.
Bad info spread by moron politicos and their hod carriers might well be less to blame than those concerned with getting the facts right and attempting to spread the slivers of 'good news' that came along in dribs and drabs.
That doesn't exculpate shit spreading "news" outlets, but let's call a spade a spade here.
Hopefully this week isn’t as bad as the models suggest.
I agree that politics is out of hand. It is all about power now and being right at all costs.
There is blame across the board at every level on both sides over several administrations all trying to pin the other side. It is pretty clear from many posters on here where they stand.
Perhaps some day we will see leaders (and posters) again who have the confidence to acknowledge when they made a mistake and go about correcting it......
I agree that politics is out of hand. It is all about power now and being right at all costs.
There is blame across the board at every level on both sides over several administrations all trying to pin the other side. It is pretty clear from many posters on here where they stand.
Perhaps some day we will see leaders (and posters) again who have the confidence to acknowledge when they made a mistake and go about correcting it......
"Blame over several administrations?"
Now that's funny. Blame it on the Kennedy's, too?
When after all, it was you and me...
There is blame across the board at every level on both sides over several administrations all trying to pin the other side. It is pretty clear from many posters on here where they stand.
No, this is completely untrue.
We're not going to talk about who is to blame here because that's political discussion and is out of bounds here. But saying "there is blame across the board" and similar nonsense is also political discussion and is also not allowed.
From what I've witnessed of human behavior in 65 years of living, it's highly unlikely senior citizens are among the demographic slices that have spread this scourge wide so quickly.
And many of the young who are the most likely viral vectors and are still behaving as if it doesn't affect them (it largely doesn't) could have gotten the info about Covid 19 being a killer of the old and health compromised from NPR news sources.
Or the NYT, Wash Post, LA Times, or CNN.
Bad info spread by moron politicos and their hod carriers might well be less to blame than those concerned with getting the facts right and attempting to spread the slivers of 'good news' that came along in dribs and drabs.
That doesn't exculpate shit spreading "news" outlets, but let's call a spade a spade here.
Absolutely not. Not blaming the elderly at all. Everyone stepping out and spreading this is to blame, if we’re looking to blame someone. My point is-when a “news” outlet can say whatever they want and make it seem as fact-it’s incredibly dangerous on both sides of the coin. Never has their been a better example than now. I’m sure many people besides my next door neighbor have died (or killed others!) because they felt emboldened to head out and do whatever their routine was because somewhere they trusted poo pooed the ramifications of doing so. No matter their age.
At what point can we look at this and say enough? This is the point. Politics need to get flushed down the toilet in this situation, both sides. They lead people out into public because they chose to spew information about how this was “nothing” and “the flu” and “overhyped,” because why? So the current administration wouldn’t look bad. That’s the only goal there. My neighbor is no longer on this earth because he believed something that maybe, just maybe if it wasn’t out there he might have thought better of it. People are responsible for themselves and people are stubborn but it is CRAZY to me that a major news outlet (if you can call it that) would just go out and say whatever they thought on something so potentially dangerous when so many people take what they say as gospel.
Again, if this is making things political I’m sorry, I don’t have a political bone in my body but it’s going too far. It’s literally a link between the news and death at this point, for many many people.
yes the last line of defense both sideism!!!
but to get this back on track there is finally good news out of Spain Italy and even parts of US where the lockdowns are starting to have desired effect!
also we have the world's scientist all racing for a vaccine I don't think this has happen in modern times where so many scientist all over the world are all concentrated on the same problem .. .. it personally gives me hope that science is leading the way to solve this pandemic .
That's in agreeance to Gary's post
To whom might you be writing? I can send you the text where my neighbor said those exact things before he ventured out into normalcy and died.
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Gotcha. No worries.
That's in agreeance to Gary's post
Are people still dumb enough to flaunt social distancing? In NYC of all places...
Same. Cognitive biases, snark, and arrogance.
It sucks because the threads in late Feb/early march were absolutely beneficial to my family's preparedness. I am grateful for that.
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Do you really think "brainwashed older people" are a primary vector of Covid-19's spread?
From what I've witnessed of human behavior in 65 years of living, it's highly unlikely senior citizens are among the demographic slices that have spread this scourge wide so quickly.
And many of the young who are the most likely viral vectors and are still behaving as if it doesn't affect them (it largely doesn't) could have gotten the info about Covid 19 being a killer of the old and health compromised from NPR news sources.
Or the NYT, Wash Post, LA Times, or CNN.
Bad info spread by moron politicos and their hod carriers might well be less to blame than those concerned with getting the facts right and attempting to spread the slivers of 'good news' that came along in dribs and drabs.
That doesn't exculpate shit spreading "news" outlets, but let's call a spade a spade here.
Absolutely not. Not blaming the elderly at all. Everyone stepping out and spreading this is to blame, if we’re looking to blame someone. My point is-when a “news” outlet can say whatever they want and make it seem as fact-it’s incredibly dangerous on both sides of the coin. Never has their been a better example than now. I’m sure many people besides my next door neighbor have died (or killed others!) because they felt emboldened to head out and do whatever their routine was because somewhere they trusted poo pooed the ramifications of doing so. No matter their age.
At what point can we look at this and say enough? This is the point. Politics need to get flushed down the toilet in this situation, both sides. They lead people out into public because they chose to spew information about how this was “nothing” and “the flu” and “overhyped,” because why? So the current administration wouldn’t look bad. That’s the only goal there. My neighbor is no longer on this earth because he believed something that maybe, just maybe if it wasn’t out there he might have thought better of it. People are responsible for themselves and people are stubborn but it is CRAZY to me that a major news outlet (if you can call it that) would just go out and say whatever they thought on something so potentially dangerous when so many people take what they say as gospel.
Again, if this is making things political I’m sorry, I don’t have a political bone in my body but it’s going too far. It’s literally a link between the news and death at this point, for many many people.
Dude both sides are doing it. I literally just saw a graphic that was designed to scaremonger on one of those unnameable stations. They had total fatalities number take up a quarter of the screen, but the graphic reported number of cases, so it had nothing to do with fatalities. It was subliminal but done on purpose. Not to mention the constant showing of case numbers, when we have no idea who has had it, and the biggest amount of bitching is the testing which would increase those numbers. It's all very disingenuous and if you can't see both sides of the coin play to their audiences I don't know what to tell you. That's makes all this shit sad to see. But if one side doesn't do it than they think they are losing ground in the fight against the other. Which may be true, I just wish we had a better system set up.
And this isn't the first time a virus got hyped up as the next big killer. In the early days they get traction from a few people ringing alarm bells, but often they just fall by the way side. Shit I was one of those people in the early days of this. It just happens too often.
This one happened to be the next big killer, however I do believe, and Snickers comments in the field corroborate, you have people actively hyping this up to be much, much worse than it is because of political opportunity. We truly don't know how many people have had it. It's looking closer that 50 percent are asymptomatic or have such mild systems that they don't register past a mild cold. Numbers coming out of Northern Italy are suggesting that a major portion of their population has had it now based on antibody testing. It wasn't good there because they were caught a bit off guard, and the testing skews to make it look much worse than it is. I don't really believe anything that comes from up top, but I'm starting to believe that those in power believe ,that this is much more widespread than the testing numbers here would indicate. Starting to think that May back to almost normal wasn't grabbed out of thin air.
When the shoe fits...
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It seems like BBI is filled with balanced centrist viewpoints!
There is blame across the board at every level on both sides over several administrations all trying to pin the other side. It is pretty clear from many posters on here where they stand.
No, this is completely untrue.
We're not going to talk about who is to blame here because that's political discussion and is out of bounds here. But saying "there is blame across the board" and similar nonsense is also political discussion and is also not allowed.
Bingo. Political assertions under the guise of a balanced viewpoint: most disingenuous.
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To whom might you be writing? I can send you the text where my neighbor said those exact things before he ventured out into normalcy and died.
I may have not expressed it correctly but I agree with you Matt.
I'm so tired of this horseshit that both sides are doing it. NO, they aren't!
I am beyond disheartened.
From what I am seeing now, we must expand and rapidly the numbers being tested. We know that there are large numbers of asymptomatic carriers but just how many are there? This number is critical as it will allow us to extrapolate using mathematical modeling to determine numbers that might resemble herd immunity. As I expressed previously, this number once it reaches critical would allow us to better coordinate our efforts. The contagion could be better localized by isolating the positive pockets and areas of the country less infected could once again be on the move. We can not at present even begin to decide on what is to come next without these data.The need to isolate is real but the requirement now for a better denominator and numerator is even more critical. No decision that is valid can come from this without knowing % of infection in the community.
I am disappointed at the slowness of the response in many areas considering that people much smarter than me had to see this coming. Nonetheless, less posturing and more doing is now critical if we are to get a handle on this. Our economy and that of the world and the health and welfare of our country depends on a response that is exact, coordinated and clear. Leaders must lead. Let us hope we are up to the task.
It's possible he blew the threat level. It's possible he was beating his head against the wall trying to get the administration to listen about a threat. I don't believe we can assess either from the bleacher seats.
It's possible he blew the threat level. It's possible he was beating his head against the wall trying to get the administration to listen about a threat. I don't believe we can assess either from the bleacher seats.
The international community is uncommonly doing the right thing, and for some reason that's antagonizing for some.
Rewind a month and remember the other analogue made, H1N1 to minimize this outbreak. Over a year 12.5K people died in the US with little disruption to life. With a massive effort the Covid-19 death rate will catch that number this week, in little over a month.
Left unmitigated, this has the potential for a really terrible outcome. We should be resolute and proud of the fact as a society we are doing the right thing and sharing a sacrifice to save lives.
People are saying stick to info/discussion, but you can't have an actual conversation if the response of the entities that are supposed to protect us from this can't even be discussed.
Like I could say "the elected official of the highest office shouldn't be promoting a drug treatment unless he knows it works, and shouldn't step into censor his medical experts at press conferences when they're asked about it by the press" -- but apparently, that "opinion" is political (when it's more of just a common sense fact).
Also, it's utterly mind blowing for Zeke's Alibi to still be saying this is "overblown and fear mongering".
Man, I'm fucking unemployedd now, got a Dad who came out or retirement to help take care of people who, with 40+ years of medical experience says "he's never lived through anything like this and hopefully i never will again, and it's a matter of survival", plus have a younger sister who is a resident at UPenn telling me horror styles from her hospital as they run out of residents since 1/3rd had to be quarantined.
Show some fucking respect for what others are dealing with.
They'll could be burying bodies in ditches and you'll still say it's overhyped fear mongering.
And I am not commenting on whatever plans may or may not be happening as part of the response out of public view. I am talking about the fact that all of us need to hear a detailed and well articulated public address of what the plan is over the next 1-3-6-9 months before this quarantine breaks. Can anyone say they have heard that?
Here's a good article from yesterday articulating this point from Tom Bossert (our Homeland Security Advisor from 2017-2018).
All of it will require time and effort to mobilize. We have less than four weeks to make decisions, decide on the plan, and get moving.
Let’s not be pleased to announce new tests or new deliveries of equipment. Instead, let’s be displeased until we can announce the plan, set it into motion, and be certain we have enough tests and equipment to meet the need.
In coronavirus response, we only get 2 strikes - ( New Window )
It was yet another attempt by Zeke's Alibi to downplay the death count.
If that's the worst that's happening to you consider yourself lucky. If you are going to keep comparing this to cancer or heart disease its probably best you don't post on the thread anymore, its a worthless data point.
A lot of warnings fall on deaf ears. Unfortunately that's just how our society functions - it usually takes a major event to make people realize there's a serious problem they need to focus on (and seriously invest in) solving. Terrorism was similar. And there are almost definitely dozens if not hundreds of other non-Pandemic threats out there we aren't taking seriously and various experts are warning us about today.
Now that's interesting. What's the weather like down there that time of year?
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being pushed back to November.
Now that's interesting. What's the weather like down there that time of year?
They also lose the ambience because the azaleas won't be in bloom.
If that's the worst that's happening to you consider yourself lucky. If you are going to keep comparing this to cancer or heart disease its probably best you don't post on the thread anymore, its a worthless data point.
I don't understand why it's a worthless data point. For the most part it is killing the same people that heart disease is. It's another major player in the death game and going to kill a similar amount of people that is why it's such a big deal. The hospitals aren't prepared for something like that because of the margins they run on. That is why we have shut everything down. And I'm super worried about losing my job three months from now do to the shitty economic policies we've had in place. I'm also super worried about possibly my father(but he's 75 and has health issues, I've been prepped for that for a while, no different than him just having a heart attack one day.)
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being pushed back to November.
Now that's interesting. What's the weather like down there that time of year?
BillKo, not sure. I'd imagine upper 40s, low 50s for November in Augusta. ? is...if there's an NFL/college football season, what's CBS going to do? You can't air The Masters on a Saturday & Sunday if there's football going on. CBS Network?
Being too aware of what others are doing while ignoring our own behavior isn't very productive in my opinion.
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In comment 14860566 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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being pushed back to November.
Now that's interesting. What's the weather like down there that time of year?
BillKo, not sure. I'd imagine upper 40s, low 50s for November in Augusta. ? is...if there's an NFL/college football season, what's CBS going to do? You can't air The Masters on a Saturday & Sunday if there's football going on. CBS Network?
Golf might be the only game in town lol....let's hope not.
And I am not commenting on whatever plans may or may not be happening as part of the response out of public view. I am talking about the fact that all of us need to hear a detailed and well articulated public address of what the plan is over the next 1-3-6-9 months before this quarantine breaks. Can anyone say they have heard that?
Here's a good article from yesterday articulating this point from Tom Bossert (our Homeland Security Advisor from 2017-2018).
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It took four months for the world to get to 250,000 cases. It took one week to go from 250,000 cases to 500,000 cases. We are now over one million and climbing. The need to trace contacts and quickly isolate and separate the infectious from the susceptible will require organized effort, people, discipline, and perhaps smartphone apps and other ingenuity.
All of it will require time and effort to mobilize. We have less than four weeks to make decisions, decide on the plan, and get moving.
Let’s not be pleased to announce new tests or new deliveries of equipment. Instead, let’s be displeased until we can announce the plan, set it into motion, and be certain we have enough tests and equipment to meet the need.
In coronavirus response, we only get 2 strikes - ( New Window )
It's hard to make decisions when we have no idea who has had it. Antibody testing is extremely important so we can get a better glimpse of what the numbers actually mean. Testing only some of the sickest people and gleaming mortality rates from that doesn't tell us much.
Being too aware of what others are doing while ignoring our own behavior isn't very productive in my opinion.
Just being a working productive member of society and properly taking care of oneself (within one's ability) for the timebeing. I'm a progressive that believes in self responsibility. Hopefully I can get to the point professionally one day where I can truly give back to society. I try to do as well as I can. Before the quarantine happened I "donated" a week's worth of pay to the service staff at various establishments since the service economy is huge here. I think part of the problem is I've watched more cable news lately and it has made me completely jaded from the bullshit both sides spew at us, but it's hard to avoid it right now.
BillKo, not sure. I'd imagine upper 40s, low 50s for November in Augusta. ? is...if there's an NFL/college football season, what's CBS going to do? You can't air The Masters on a Saturday & Sunday if there's football going on. CBS Network?
Average high in Augusta in Nov. is 67. Average low 47.
That doesn't too bad temp wise.
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gave a speech at Georgetown about pending pandemic January of 2017,fell on deaf ears.
A lot of warnings fall on deaf ears. Unfortunately that's just how our society functions - it usually takes a major event to make people realize there's a serious problem they need to focus on (and seriously invest in) solving. Terrorism was similar. And there are almost definitely dozens if not hundreds of other non-Pandemic threats out there we aren't taking seriously and various experts are warning us about today.
Great points. After 9/11, we look at who is riding on subways, or going into movie theatres, or on a plane, or in a stadium. Our radar is up that a threat can always be there. We are even told report if you see something.
Let's hope the gov't catches up with the science and starts really having a coordinated effort on time the next time this happens.
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It's hard to make decisions when we have no idea who has had it. Antibody testing is extremely important so we can get a better glimpse of what the numbers actually mean. Testing only some of the sickest people and gleaming mortality rates from that doesn't tell us much.
That's the entire point. That there are still ongoing problems with our collective "battle plan" lead by our government, and it's not a political opinion to say so. Your example of testing is 100% accurate - other countries are still doing an objectively better job of developing wide scale testing (among other things).
We all want to see the better outcomes like in Germany, SK, etc. but our response continues to simply not perform as well as theirs. I posted an article on Germany's widescale testing yesterday, Bossert's article today above about how we could determine how widescale this thing is using other flu surveillance metrics, etc. The realities of these things are staring us in the face and if we don't get our act together quickly we are only going to lose more time assembling a coordinated plan for what happens the day the quarantine lifts.
Linked is a simulation trying to model how different efforts might combine to quell the epidemic. If you are going to hate on the entire notion of models because they are uncertain, please just skip it.
This is just one model of hundreds, not yet peer reviewed, that may not be true in any detail, but like many other very simple models probably gets the dynamics about right [also meaning it agrees with what I have been working on myself] . I could have linked any number of non-peer reviewed disease models that are doing this, this is just an example that I think makes the point about testing, and as seen in the quote below, offers some optimism.
Please refer to Figure 1B for how important testing is predicted to be.
Sustainable social distancing through facemask use and testing during the Covid-19 pandemic - ( New Window )
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You seem very aware of how others contribute destructive behavior to society, well what are your problems, or what problems will you contribute to society later in life?
Being too aware of what others are doing while ignoring our own behavior isn't very productive in my opinion.
Just being a working productive member of society and properly taking care of oneself (within one's ability) for the timebeing. I'm a progressive that believes in self responsibility. Hopefully I can get to the point professionally one day where I can truly give back to society. I try to do as well as I can. Before the quarantine happened I "donated" a week's worth of pay to the service staff at various establishments since the service economy is huge here. I think part of the problem is I've watched more cable news lately and it has made me completely jaded from the bullshit both sides spew at us, but it's hard to avoid it right now.
Zeke I understand. I guess my point is that in my view we all contribute negatively somehow to society. Some may keep themselves in great physical condition, but ignore their mental health or thinking in a positive, productive way. We contribute good at times and not so good at times. I certainly believe in personal responsibility, but that should mean my personal responsibility in my opinion. I struggle at times getting too wrapped up what others are doing incorrectly instead of focusing on what I do incorrectly that within reason can be improved.
It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*
Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.
Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims
NYC city morgue dealing with equivalent of "an ongoing 9-11" - ( New Window )
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my stupid friend trolls us daily with the "death count chart" but atleast that's private. To go on a pretty big discussion board where people have lost their jobs, possibly lost loved ones, and experienced other hardships due to this virus is pretty laughable. Last time I actually paid attention to one of his posts he was bitching about not being able to get to stores early enough for groceries and not finding TP.
If that's the worst that's happening to you consider yourself lucky. If you are going to keep comparing this to cancer or heart disease its probably best you don't post on the thread anymore, its a worthless data point.
I don't understand why it's a worthless data point. For the most part it is killing the same people that heart disease is. It's another major player in the death game and going to kill a similar amount of people that is why it's such a big deal. The hospitals aren't prepared for something like that because of the margins they run on. That is why we have shut everything down. And I'm super worried about losing my job three months from now do to the shitty economic policies we've had in place. I'm also super worried about possibly my father(but he's 75 and has health issues, I've been prepped for that for a while, no different than him just having a heart attack one day.)
If you cannot understand why it's a worthless data point, then you're legitimately just willfully ignorant at this time.
I mean, you literally brought up hospital capacity the next couple sentences and just ignore people explaining to you that heart disease isn't CONTAGIOUS. We don't have capacity or supplies for this level of spike.
Plus, while what you said about margins is true, it isn't the entire story. NO hospitals have this much excess capacity because, even in countries with universal healthcare, it STILL doesn't make ANY financial sense to have this many extra hospital rooms/beds laying around.
Lastly, you're can say you're worried but your posts clearly show you aren't. All your hypotheticals that you claim you're worried about is shit that's already happened to other people. Plus, saying you're afraid you "might lose your. job". due to the transparently obvious language of "shitty economic policies" (easily means social distancing) is crazy to me.
It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*
Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.
Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims
NYC city morgue dealing with equivalent of "an ongoing 9-11" - ( New Window )
But they are also counting every death a coronavirus death if the person tested positive, even if the underlining issue is what actually killed the person..
You are right we will never know the true numbers, but that works both ways
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update. NYC reeling.
It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*
Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.
Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims
NYC city morgue dealing with equivalent of "an ongoing 9-11" - ( New Window )
But they are also counting every death a coronavirus death if the person tested positive, even if the underlining issue is what actually killed the person..
You are right we will never know the true numbers, but that works both ways
the point of the linked tweet thread is less about true numbers and more that NYC is facing a burial crisis.
from the link:
Soon we'll start “temporary interment”. This likely will be done by using a NYC park for burials (yes you read that right). Trenches will be dug for 10 caskets in a line.
It will be done in a dignified, orderly--and temporary--manner. But it will be tough for NYers to take.
The goal is to avoid scenes like those in Italy, where the military was forced to collect bodies from churches and even off the streets.
OCME is going to need much more staff to achieve that goal.
Great points. After 9/11, we look at who is riding on subways, or going into movie theatres, or on a plane, or in a stadium. Our radar is up that a threat can always be there. We are even told report if you see something.
Let's hope the gov't catches up with the science and starts really having a coordinated effort on time the next time this happens.
Also as a country we got a lot more patient with airport security procedures, shoes off, removing electronics, then eventually liquids. So yes there was an expanded government response (and $) but also a public response + buy in. Massive events usually lead to massive responses.
Switching gears to what's missing in this response so far is the collective action plan that can harness a major response beyond quarantining and developing vaccine. We have experts all over the place advising a version of the same things and several other countries who can serve as case studies of what works and what doesn't.
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In comment 14860632 japanhead said:
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update. NYC reeling.
It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*
Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.
Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims
NYC city morgue dealing with equivalent of "an ongoing 9-11" - ( New Window )
But they are also counting every death a coronavirus death if the person tested positive, even if the underlining issue is what actually killed the person..
You are right we will never know the true numbers, but that works both ways
the point of the linked tweet thread is less about true numbers and more that NYC is facing a burial crisis.
from the link:
Soon we'll start “temporary interment”. This likely will be done by using a NYC park for burials (yes you read that right). Trenches will be dug for 10 caskets in a line.
It will be done in a dignified, orderly--and temporary--manner. But it will be tough for NYers to take.
The goal is to avoid scenes like those in Italy, where the military was forced to collect bodies from churches and even off the streets.
OCME is going to need much more staff to achieve that goal.
A big reason for all the bodies is funeral homes are not collecting the bodies from hospital morgues because there are no funeral services...so families are not collecting the bodies..
My friend is working on a construction site at denville hospital, building new wings to keep the bodies until people can come and get their loved ones..
it is truly horrible
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update. NYC reeling.
It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*
Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.
Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims
NYC city morgue dealing with equivalent of "an ongoing 9-11" - ( New Window )
But they are also counting every death a coronavirus death if the person tested positive, even if the underlining issue is what actually killed the person..
You are right we will never know the true numbers, but that works both ways
1) assessing cause of death isn't black and. white. You can have multiple contributing factors, and if someone tests positive for covid and dies in an overworked, overstressed hospital, they'd have:
a) probably wouldn't have been in the hospital if they didn't have covid as another complicating factor and b) would be getting better cared because the hospitals wouldn't be completely overrun without covid.
2) Even if what you said had any merit, there's absolutely no chance it would even come remotely close to the # of deaths that have been unattributed. We HAVE a baseline of death numbers over given time periods. All you have to do is look at the CURRENT rate of death and compare the two to see the impact.
It's getting really hard not to be increasingly angry and upset with people calling everyone else chicken littles.
Who is directing this film we're all in? He's on something.
Hey, we need some positivity.
Who is directing this film we're all in? He's on something.
wild coyotes are in every major city in the US, and have been. in january 2019 i saw one casually strolling across the long-term parking lot at BWI when i was waiting for the bus.
We are all feeling the effects of the strain of this calamity -- it touches everyone in the world -- please try to respect each other and not get into he said/she said accusations
Hey, we need some positivity.
finally seeing numbers reflect social distancing, now lets hope people do not get false hope and start going out more..
Who is directing this film we're all in? He's on something.
Speaking of movies - Crowley, LA Sheriff department announced the start of curfew with a siren. A siren that sounded eerily similar to The Purge. So similar that they received numerous calls from citizens afraid and terrified. The Sheriff claimed he was unfamiliar with movie to deflect responsibility.
It is so fucking stupid to continually parrot shit like this. Every year since 1918 and the Spanish Flu pandemic someone (many people) probably have given speeches about pandemics. And they all fell on deaf ears.
The bloodthirsty need to apportion blame while still in the middle of the attack is both unproductive and divisive.
Since the H1N1 pandemic ended in 2009/2010 every year the CDC and NIH has advised the Federal Government to replenish the stock pile of PPE that was reduced by 75% and every year it "fell on deaf ears".
EVERYONE misjudged this, on both sides of the political aisle, there was commentary into early February around Chinese New Year celebrations, etc. that people wee encouraged to attend and tons of other comments.
Now comes the hind sight, second guessing, political grandstanding.
Once this thing is over, yes, do a review and critique the response, but now in the throes of a pandemic, it's pointless, divisive and political.
And you know it.
especially qith the weather getting nicer
Once this thing is over, yes, do a review and critique the response, but now in the throes of a pandemic, it's pointless, divisive and political.
And you know it.
The one critical component institutions can do now -- and should be castigated and corrected if not -- is operate with fact-based, transparent, and tempered truth.
How institutions lead, and react now, is arguably more important than what they did before.
Open criticism of currents actions is absolutely critical to advance the best outcome.
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my stupid friend trolls us daily with the "death count chart" but atleast that's private. To go on a pretty big discussion board where people have lost their jobs, possibly lost loved ones, and experienced other hardships due to this virus is pretty laughable. Last time I actually paid attention to one of his posts he was bitching about not being able to get to stores early enough for groceries and not finding TP.
If that's the worst that's happening to you consider yourself lucky. If you are going to keep comparing this to cancer or heart disease its probably best you don't post on the thread anymore, its a worthless data point.
I don't understand why it's a worthless data point. For the most part it is killing the same people that heart disease is. It's another major player in the death game and going to kill a similar amount of people that is why it's such a big deal. The hospitals aren't prepared for something like that because of the margins they run on. That is why we have shut everything down. And I'm super worried about losing my job three months from now do to the shitty economic policies we've had in place. I'm also super worried about possibly my father(but he's 75 and has health issues, I've been prepped for that for a while, no different than him just having a heart attack one day.)
Just because someone is at risk for a heart attack doesn't mean they are a walking dead person. Unless you can prove to me that most of the deaths are people that were on the verge of death already than I don't understand why you keep talking about it.
My wife's grandfather had bypass surgery in his early 70's and lived until 90 - so that's 20+ years of being high risk and then 20 years post surgery he lived a great life for. This virus is awful for someone like him.
If we want to get out of the crisis period as best we can everything else needs to be dropped and we all need to listen to the experts advice as much as we all can. That is how each of us can do our part. So it's disheartening to see their recommendations get ignored publicly repeatedly.
Hey, we need some positivity.
It looks like Europe is on a downward trend now too, its held up for almost a week. Good news.
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Cuomo says NY is tracking better than initial models. Social distancing needs to be kept up.
Hey, we need some positivity.
It looks like Europe is on a downward trend now too, its held up for almost a week. Good news.
The NY #s here look lousy for today. Is this from a backlog of the weekend?
US #s - ( New Window )
Who is directing this film we're all in? He's on something.
Link - ( New Window )
Sadly I had that same thought. Despite basically every hospital in NYC being at full capacity (with 'normal' beds converted to ICUs) with only Covid-19 patients.
Even if you want to assume 10x as many people had Covid-19 and were asymptomatic or mild symptoms and thus not tested, that's still only ~700k people that have had the disease, which is <10% and not nearly enough for any type of herd immunity.
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In comment 14860653 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Cuomo says NY is tracking better than initial models. Social distancing needs to be kept up.
Hey, we need some positivity.
It looks like Europe is on a downward trend now too, its held up for almost a week. Good news.
The NY #s here look lousy for today. Is this from a backlog of the weekend? US #s - ( New Window )
Just going off of Cuomo's daily presser, you should watch it. He showed graphs of hospitalizations, and ICU admittance going down for the 3rd day in a row (and substantially), and had deaths flattening too (which has to happen and makes sense in context). I don't know what the graphs you linked are showing, it could be a different timeline is being used. I go more by Cuomo's daily than anything else.
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In comment 14860736 PatersonPlank said:
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In comment 14860653 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Cuomo says NY is tracking better than initial models. Social distancing needs to be kept up.
Hey, we need some positivity.
It looks like Europe is on a downward trend now too, its held up for almost a week. Good news.
The NY #s here look lousy for today. Is this from a backlog of the weekend? US #s - ( New Window )
Just going off of Cuomo's daily presser, you should watch it. He showed graphs of hospitalizations, and ICU admittance going down for the 3rd day in a row (and substantially), and had deaths flattening too (which has to happen and makes sense in context). I don't know what the graphs you linked are showing, it could be a different timeline is being used. I go more by Cuomo's daily than anything else.
Actually I take that back. Outside of deaths he is tracking other numbers that he feels are more pertinent (the ones I mentioned above plus people being released from the hospitals). His guy there (forgot his name) said he was "hopeful" (so not committing) that they were at the apex.
Hopefully this week isn’t as bad as the models suggest.
16h
⚠️UNDER REPORTING DEATHS in NYC by 300-400 on weekends? Someone calling out @nycgov & @nycHealthy for grossly under reporting #COVID19 cases on weekends. @andreafeigl1 been tracking carefully for past 2 weeks. The weekend reporting lull also noticed by others like @StandfieldKen.
Dr. Andrea Feigl
@andreafeigl1
1/
@nycgov
#Covid_19 dths supposedly ⬇️ 2day
I don't believe these #s ...
Why?
Yesterday's 630 toll reported just before 9pm; hourly, ~50 dths + in NYC the last few days; the 594 # reported in AM ... no increase since
My estimate: We underreported ~300 - 400 dths in NYC 2day
Drs Eric Ding + Andrea Feigl on underreporting on weekends - ( New Window )
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The bloodthirsty need to apportion blame while still in the middle of the attack is both unproductive and divisive.
And you know it.
WTF with DeBlasio, BTW??? He only realized a few DAYS ago that asymptomatic people can spread the disease?? The MAYOR of NYC?
In Early March, I already had a full pantry and was practicing social distancing, got my entire team Telework agreements for the inevitable, while in the cafeteria at work a large TV was blaring on about how the reaction of those taking such measures was *overblown*.
Right now, I don't care about politics. I care about fools who should know better still fucking around and getting people sick because they are being informed by jackasses or worse, *to own the Libs*.
Laying blame only has a purpose if it serves to improve things in the future. I'm not so sure that will be accomplished here.
If we heeded the supposedly rampant warnings before the virus came to the US and took drastic measures of shutting everything down and bringing the economy to a grinding halt, that measure would be second-guessed to death, especially if we still had the virus making inroads. That isn't the obvious fault of anyone.
Furthermore, have we learned anything from this, or will we shut everything down the next time there's a similar panic? This isn't sustainable, nor can we expect to intermittently do this whenever something looms on the horizon that people are unsure of.
We will still be left with an aftermath of financial ruin for more people than who will have died from the virus when this is all said and done. We can't just perpetuate that cycle anytime there's something else that comes along.
Could both controlling the virus and preserving the economy been accomplished? If not, than that's the only real tangible solution we have to figure out for the next time. If blaming people doesn't get to that goal, we shouldn't partake in it.
If we had excess PPE, we could've encouraged people to start using masks in public as early as late January, which would've slowed the spread.
Would we ultimately still have needed to shut down the economy? Perhaps, Japan was looking like they had slowed the spread enough until recently.
Now.. can that be transferred back to a human as a different strain? S more virulent strain?
What I’m saying is ..
If this can easily be transferred from animal to human with multiple species . Is it just a matter of time before we have another SRS or MERS like illness?
Obviously any pandemic that impacts so much of the world is going to impact global market and there will be pain, however the more proactive + thoughtful the strategy, the less draconian the measures needed, the less pain all around (including economically).
So I agree with you, assigning blame right now isn't constructive unless we are learning from what was done wrong to do it right now. Unfortunately I don't see us putting in place the best practices of what others did yet, and those measures also seem to be near consensus suggestions from experts like Fauci, so I think that's where our focus should be as responsible citizens (idk if we consider that "blaming", but it's certainly critical in nature).
As if Joe Exotic didn't have enough problems.
You're talking about the guy who the morning that the state announced a lockdown would commence that night, and after the city had already requested (though it wasn't yet an order) that people stay home other than for essential services, went to his gym. He's thrown a lot of blame, but not quite as much into the mirror as is warranted.
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Sad joke some saying we shouldn't lay blame. Guess some us are hard of hearing everyday.
Laying blame only has a purpose if it serves to improve things in the future. I'm not so sure that will be accomplished here.
If we heeded the supposedly rampant warnings before the virus came to the US and took drastic measures of shutting everything down and bringing the economy to a grinding halt, that measure would be second-guessed to death, especially if we still had the virus making inroads. That isn't the obvious fault of anyone.
Furthermore, have we learned anything from this, or will we shut everything down the next time there's a similar panic? This isn't sustainable, nor can we expect to intermittently do this whenever something looms on the horizon that people are unsure of.
We will still be left with an aftermath of financial ruin for more people than who will have died from the virus when this is all said and done. We can't just perpetuate that cycle anytime there's something else that comes along.
Could both controlling the virus and preserving the economy been accomplished? If not, than that's the only real tangible solution we have to figure out for the next time. If blaming people doesn't get to that goal, we shouldn't partake in it.
This is what I've been trying to say. People act like financial ruin is just rich people losing their 401ks. It's amounts to hopelessness, drug addiction, suicide, domestic violence etc etc. And the saddest part is that many of these affected won't even have had a chance in life to make poor decisions. We can't just come to a grinding halt unless there is a tangible threat to society as we know it. Now I understand why we had to come to a stop for the time being, but what if the solution is a year of this? There is no way you can tell me that would be a good idea. I just don't think people are fathoming how catastrophic that would be for years and possibly decades.
The disinformation on the front end screwed us. We did not have a cohesive national approach, piecemeal regional and organizational shutdowns at first, some states and sport leagues shut down, but you had FOX News hosts insisting it was no big deal and the President downplaying it and *POLITICIZING* it by calling the conservative responses of many a *liberal hoax*. So SXSW gets cancelled, but Mardi Gras and Florida Spring Break go off without a hitch.
THE ISSUE IS NOW. The reason I bring up the failings of the last months is that they ARE STILL HAPPENING. Trump is talking up a drug and refusing to let Dr. Fauci answer questions about it.
Is the entire country on board yet? Last time I went out, I was the only one with a mask.
I do have good news. A blip anyway. Local hospital out here in Binghamton my wife and son work for reported their first DECREASE in cases. Downstate with similar news. Fingers crossed that holds.
And not to go down the rabbit hole, but when posters were talking about millions of people dying, I said very early on that the economic impact will be far larger than the death impact. We'll come up with a solution in less than a year on how to control the virus. We won't recover from the economic impact for a few years, and that's just driven from corporations. Millions of individuals will hit rock bottom and that will spiral things is a lot of different directions. I know you've been saying that as well.
What we should take away from this is that barring a complete threat to the human race, shutting down everything is not a viable solution going forward.
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Sad joke some saying we shouldn't lay blame. Guess some us are hard of hearing everyday.
Laying blame only has a purpose if it serves to improve things in the future. I'm not so sure that will be accomplished here.
If we heeded the supposedly rampant warnings before the virus came to the US and took drastic measures of shutting everything down and bringing the economy to a grinding halt, that measure would be second-guessed to death, especially if we still had the virus making inroads. That isn't the obvious fault of anyone.
Furthermore, have we learned anything from this, or will we shut everything down the next time there's a similar panic? This isn't sustainable, nor can we expect to intermittently do this whenever something looms on the horizon that people are unsure of.
We will still be left with an aftermath of financial ruin for more people than who will have died from the virus when this is all said and done. We can't just perpetuate that cycle anytime there's something else that comes along.
Could both controlling the virus and preserving the economy been accomplished? If not, than that's the only real tangible solution we have to figure out for the next time. If blaming people doesn't get to that goal, we shouldn't partake in it.
But laying blame is needed because we need to improve things now. Our governments response has been bad- not sure how anyone could argue differently. Without blame and criticism the mistakes will be repeated and continued. Hopefully this spotlight will make a difference moving forward...
Now.. can that be transferred back to a human as a different strain? S more virulent strain?
What I’m saying is ..
If this can easily be transferred from animal to human with multiple species . Is it just a matter of time before we have another SRS or MERS like illness?
According to this article, scientists don’t believe it can be transferred from animals to humans...
Link - ( New Window )
The disinformation on the front end screwed us. We did not have a cohesive national approach, piecemeal regional and organizational shutdowns at first, some states and sport leagues shut down, but you had FOX News hosts insisting it was no big deal and the President downplaying it and *POLITICIZING* it by calling the conservative responses of many a *liberal hoax*. So SXSW gets cancelled, but Mardi Gras and Florida Spring Break go off without a hitch.
THE ISSUE IS NOW. The reason I bring up the failings of the last months is that they ARE STILL HAPPENING. Trump is talking up a drug and refusing to let Dr. Fauci answer questions about it.
Is the entire country on board yet? Last time I went out, I was the only one with a mask.
I do have good news. A blip anyway. Local hospital out here in Binghamton my wife and son work for reported their first DECREASE in cases. Downstate with similar news. Fingers crossed that holds.
Any solution that doesn't shut down the businesses isn't a viable solution to learn. And we'll have to have the uncomfortable discussion in the future about the tradeoff of saving lives at the expense of livelihoods.
At some point though, a long shut down does also lead to deaths
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And we'll have to have the uncomfortable discussion in the future about the tradeoff of saving lives at the expense of livelihoods.
At some point though, a long shut down does also lead to deaths
Shutting things down is bad. Nobody is arguing that. But the way to open things up is to solve the problem at hand. Widespread surveillance testing, guidelines on how to minimize risk for high risk people, building treatment capacity, and eventually a vaccine. We have only bad options to choose from right now and I think it's silly to argue that a shutdown is worse since there would be no way to way to have a normal economy right now even if everything was open. The virus is disrupting the world far more than any quarantines.
obviously that didn't happen and just today it was reported that 40,000 people flew to the US from china AFTER the travel restriction was put in place.
it's fine for people to be frustrated and upset about that, even if they're not proposing solutions or using the impotent federal response as a reference point to pivot to some policy directive to improve things for the future.
i agree the economy can't and shouldn't stay shutdown for multiple months and that some of the orders in place like 8 or 10pm curfews make no sense
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numbers coming from effective social distancing, and with Cuomo's presser indicating that this might be the new peak, is that many will look around and think "it's not that bad" or "it didn't get that bad" without having any clue just to how exhausted our hospital resources are right now.
Sadly I had that same thought. Despite basically every hospital in NYC being at full capacity (with 'normal' beds converted to ICUs) with only Covid-19 patients.
Even if you want to assume 10x as many people had Covid-19 and were asymptomatic or mild symptoms and thus not tested, that's still only ~700k people that have had the disease, which is <10% and not nearly enough for any type of herd immunity.
+1, in fact, the exponential growth is evidence of the lack of a large/majority population of recovered people. The number of recovered (immune) individuals only gets into a majority only after the peak of the epidemic, because it is the loss of susceptible individuals that is causing the downturn.
Of course, none of this involves social distancing etc. which seeks to reverse the epidemic by different means.
What we should take away from this is that barring a complete threat to the human race, shutting down everything is not a viable solution going forward.
FMIC, so you think the extirpation of humans is the threshold for shutting things down? Glad you're not in charge.
I get that the costs are high, but this has to be reversed that more sensible ways to limit the spread (those that do involve massive testing) can be used in the future. We'll need that anyway for the next round which will not be far off.
It's not where we'd want to be but it is where we are...there's plenty of blame to go around for that.
This is unprecedented. And it will set the global economy back for a few years and bankrupt and ruin millions of lives.
Like I said above - we have to get to a point where we can put a plan in place that will both mitigate a health crisis (or social crisis) and keep the economy up and running.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
Cuomo asked trump to send more, so maybe it is working?
This is unprecedented. And it will set the global economy back for a few years and bankrupt and ruin millions of lives.
Like I said above - we have to get to a point where we can put a plan in place that will both mitigate a health crisis (or social crisis) and keep the economy up and running.
estimates are that the current measures have already saved >60K lives in the UK alone (roughly the number of UK civilian deaths in all of WWII), and they are not at the peak. Then, keep in mind that ~50% of infections and deaths occur on the downside of the epidemic (at the peak things are only half over), so we are likely talking about at least 150,000 lives being saved in the UK alone. It wouldn't shock me after all this done to see US lives spared by our actions in the million or so range.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
That's an excellent post
Korea, Taiwan and Singapore were ready - ( New Window )
Best to you and yours Ric...
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
But those are minor mistakes. And many of them could have been easily avoided.
And yes every country is experiencing it. But not every country is facing the same toll due to their measures taken. South Korea has 186 deaths and had the same start time as the US. You don't think the difference lies in the response and the policy decisions?
There's an unvirtuous cycle that can spring from not stamping out a pandemic crisis that leads to both more lives and livelihoods lost.
There's been plenty of recent focus, but the literature on the Spanish Flu, specifically around localities that shutdown vs. didn't show a pretty crisp outcome: not shutting down had greater longterm negative impacts on lives and livelihoods.
Despite some of the ambiguity, there was plenty of leading and directional data to show this was different. This isn't an every day, seasonal, or annual event. This is an uncommon event with the potential to create misery on both the livelihood and lives vectors.
There are natural cost benefit analysis on the cost of life versus other factors. That game gets played regularly with illness and disease.
Virtually all of the data put this event in an echelon much different than the typical day-to-day threats.
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Wife just told me she’s seeing a covid patient tomorrow.
Best to you and yours Ric...
Thanks man. Planning on giving her the John Rambo bath after work.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hAWVXlTkTiU - ( New Window )
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And we'll have to have the uncomfortable discussion in the future about the tradeoff of saving lives at the expense of livelihoods.
There's an unvirtuous cycle that can spring from not stamping out a pandemic crisis that leads to both more lives and livelihoods lost.
There's been plenty of recent focus, but the literature on the Spanish Flu, specifically around localities that shutdown vs. didn't show a pretty crisp outcome: not shutting down had greater longterm negative impacts on lives and livelihoods.
Despite some of the ambiguity, there was plenty of leading and directional data to show this was different. This isn't an every day, seasonal, or annual event. This is an uncommon event with the potential to create misery on both the livelihood and lives vectors.
There are natural cost benefit analysis on the cost of life versus other factors. That game gets played regularly with illness and disease.
Virtually all of the data put this event in an echelon much different than the typical day-to-day threats.
There are some similarities as far as destruction, but the Spanish Flu was a completely different animal than this.
It's acceptable-- and necessary-- to criticize and repudiate the response efforts at this point in terms of what the people in charge didn't do in January, February, and March because they still aren't taking it seriously.
They are still making states bid against each other. They are still granting states' requests in a manner that just so happens to overlap with those states' relation to re-election efforts. They are still telling bald-faced lies as to the number and level of available tests.
There are still people in charge promoting social gatherings with absurd exemptions for church gatherings, and reopening beaches.
They are still telling Americans that they have nothing to lose by taking drugs which are being cautioned by medical experts as to their efficacy and side effects, which also happen to make it harder for people who actually need those drugs to get them.
There is still a massive shortage in PPE-- masks, gowns, shields, ventilators.
The idea that things can't be criticized now is absurd to me.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
That would be all well and good IF there were not contradictory, and worse, information being propagated.
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So people blaming this or that policy decision are just really off base.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
But those are minor mistakes. And many of them could have been easily avoided.
And yes every country is experiencing it. But not every country is facing the same toll due to their measures taken. South Korea has 186 deaths and had the same start time as the US. You don't think the difference lies in the response and the policy decisions?
South Korea is about the size of Kentucky with the population slightly more than California with a controllable border, and wildly different culture than the US and probably more current and accurate information from China. Stop comparing non-like things.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
Explain the differences in Germany and South Korea?
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So people blaming this or that policy decision are just really off base.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
But those are minor mistakes. And many of them could have been easily avoided.
And yes every country is experiencing it. But not every country is facing the same toll due to their measures taken. South Korea has 186 deaths and had the same start time as the US. You don't think the difference lies in the response and the policy decisions?
Our death toll per capta is much less than most countries. You can't just look at raw numbers, they need to be put in perspective. Italy, Spain, France and others a lot worse. Yes SK is better, so that is one, but then again those countries were hard hit by Sars so they had recent experience. I remember traveling to Japan and South Korea in the early 2000's, and having my temp taken as soon as I got off the plane
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So people blaming this or that policy decision are just really off base.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
That's an excellent post
Excellent post, unfortunately the people stuck at both ends of the political spectrum will continue to make this political
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
Well said. However, the instances in Vancouver are particularly low owing to our longstanding propensity for general social snobbery. Social distancing ain't new over here.
The outcomes were quite different for many reasons. The underlying virology, communicability, and relative mortality etc. obviously need much more time, debate, and analysis. I'm not making a comparison there.
The pointed question of cost benefit of lives vs. livelihood is a useful analog. One (among many) mistakes and miscalculations made was around shutting down micro-societies. Some localities in part decided to keep the public "open." The upside was many livelihoods were salvaged for a short time, but many more were impacted (along with lives), as the virus spread, consumers were dying, deep panic and under-confidence set in, health care systems were overwhelmed, health care workers became sick etc.
That's the unvirtuous cycle we're trying to avoid now.
Packing the population of CA into the geography of Kentucky is actually quite to the disadvantage of a society to maintain an outbreak.
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In comment 14860895 Vanzetti said:
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So people blaming this or that policy decision are just really off base.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
But those are minor mistakes. And many of them could have been easily avoided.
And yes every country is experiencing it. But not every country is facing the same toll due to their measures taken. South Korea has 186 deaths and had the same start time as the US. You don't think the difference lies in the response and the policy decisions?
South Korea is about the size of Kentucky with the population slightly more than California with a controllable border, and wildly different culture than the US and probably more current and accurate information from China. Stop comparing non-like things.
God forbid we expect better from our country...
How about Germany?
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The Chloronique (sp) and Z Packs have been working in New York?
Cuomo asked trump to send more, so maybe it is working?
This is obviously an extremely small example but I just spoke to one of my clients today. Both his parents ended up in Syosset hospital on LI. Both 69. They never made it to ventilators thank God but both were on oxygen and pretty sick. His Dad was hallucinating from his fever. They were both given this combo and got better within a day and both made a full recovery and are back home after a week or so in the hospital.
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In comment 14860882 Ron Hussler said:
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The Chloronique (sp) and Z Packs have been working in New York?
Cuomo asked trump to send more, so maybe it is working?
This is obviously an extremely small example but I just spoke to one of my clients today. Both his parents ended up in Syosset hospital on LI. Both 69. They never made it to ventilators thank God but both were on oxygen and pretty sick. His Dad was hallucinating from his fever. They were both given this combo and got better within a day and both made a full recovery and are back home after a week or so in the hospital.
Is it just me or am I hearing this wrong. It seems like hospitals are giving this stuff out now as if it were officially approved. I wonder if they can fast track approval if its having as much success as it seems?
That's correct.
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In comment 14860915 TyreeHelmet said:
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In comment 14860895 Vanzetti said:
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So people blaming this or that policy decision are just really off base.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
But those are minor mistakes. And many of them could have been easily avoided.
And yes every country is experiencing it. But not every country is facing the same toll due to their measures taken. South Korea has 186 deaths and had the same start time as the US. You don't think the difference lies in the response and the policy decisions?
South Korea is about the size of Kentucky with the population slightly more than California with a controllable border, and wildly different culture than the US and probably more current and accurate information from China. Stop comparing non-like things.
God forbid we expect better from our country...
How about Germany?
It's ok to expect better if it's realistic and if you're comparing the results of a country that is a federation of states to a similar body, but comparing the US to South Korea is a fools errand.
Most of what I have read about Germany is they credit the low fatality rate to having the most hospital beds and ICU beds per capita in the world.
"Germany hospital capacity surpasses that of many other countries," Kates said. It's been a key factor in saving lives and not overwhelming a strained healthcare system.
But you should also take into account (along with all the 2020 hindsight and second guessing) is that in November 2019 Johns Hopkins University, the NTI, and the Gates Foundation concluded a global study in pandemic preparedness and the US came in #1 overall and and #1 in 5 out of 6 categories (prevention, detection and reporting, rapid response, healthy system, and compliance) US was 19th in overall environment risk to biological threats.
The report, linked below, was critical of almost every country (including the US), but the US was the highest score of anyone.
link - ( New Window )
Glad she's doing better. Hope she has a speedy recovery.
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In comment 14860897 nygiants16 said:
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In comment 14860882 Ron Hussler said:
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The Chloronique (sp) and Z Packs have been working in New York?
Cuomo asked trump to send more, so maybe it is working?
This is obviously an extremely small example but I just spoke to one of my clients today. Both his parents ended up in Syosset hospital on LI. Both 69. They never made it to ventilators thank God but both were on oxygen and pretty sick. His Dad was hallucinating from his fever. They were both given this combo and got better within a day and both made a full recovery and are back home after a week or so in the hospital.
Is it just me or am I hearing this wrong. It seems like hospitals are giving this stuff out now as if it were officially approved. I wonder if they can fast track approval if its having as much success as it seems?
If the drug is fda approved, even if it is not approved for a certain ailment, doctors are allowed to prescribe it..
If the drug was not previously fda approved they wouldnt be allowed to use it
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In comment 14860945 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 14860915 TyreeHelmet said:
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In comment 14860895 Vanzetti said:
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So people blaming this or that policy decision are just really off base.
Yes, we could have gotten ahead of the curve better. Biggest mistake was probably not implementing a Europe travel ban earlier and having rigorous screening of people returning from abroad. Supplies should also have been stock piled and monitored. California did stock pile 21 million masks but they were all expired.
Everybody made mistakes. Having huge crowds at the DMV in January probably was a key factor in NY, especially for Long Island.
But This is a medical crisis not a political crisis. UK has a conservative govt, Spain has a socialist govt, France is centrist and Italy is a combined left and right with Conte and Salvini. They are all suffering terribly, much worse than the US. So all the hidden politics here just represents your own biases. The disease would be killing regardless of what measures were taken or who was in office.
But those are minor mistakes. And many of them could have been easily avoided.
And yes every country is experiencing it. But not every country is facing the same toll due to their measures taken. South Korea has 186 deaths and had the same start time as the US. You don't think the difference lies in the response and the policy decisions?
South Korea is about the size of Kentucky with the population slightly more than California with a controllable border, and wildly different culture than the US and probably more current and accurate information from China. Stop comparing non-like things.
God forbid we expect better from our country...
How about Germany?
It's ok to expect better if it's realistic and if you're comparing the results of a country that is a federation of states to a similar body, but comparing the US to South Korea is a fools errand.
Most of what I have read about Germany is they credit the low fatality rate to having the most hospital beds and ICU beds per capita in the world.
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But perhaps what has contributed to Germany's low death rate most is an ace up its sleeve that many other countries can't match: An extremely high bed-to-person ratio. According to data from HealthSystemTracker, Germany has 8.1 hospital beds per 1,000 people and 6.1 ICU beds per 1,000 people. Italy has 3.2 hospital beds per 1,000 and 2.6 ICU beds per 1,000. The US has 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 and 2.4 ICU beds per 1,000 people.
"Germany hospital capacity surpasses that of many other countries," Kates said. It's been a key factor in saving lives and not overwhelming a strained healthcare system.
But you should also take into account (along with all the 2020 hindsight and second guessing) is that in November 2019 Johns Hopkins University, the NTI, and the Gates Foundation concluded a global study in pandemic preparedness and the US came in #1 overall and and #1 in 5 out of 6 categories (prevention, detection and reporting, rapid response, healthy system, and compliance) US was 19th in overall environment risk to biological threats.
The report, linked below, was critical of almost every country (including the US), but the US was the highest score of anyone. link - ( New Window )
I also read Germany has a young population compared to other developed countries. I think in the upper 40's age wise is the average? Italy is much higher. Like I said I read this so it could be wrong.
1. the accuracy of the epidemiological models driving policy; and
2. whether a more targeted approach (adopted by other countries, like Sweden) might be a lesser evil, considering the dire economic impact.
Basically, you were either on Team Fauci, and accepted the apocalyptic curve models (which had flaws apparent to even a layman) or you were an anti-science covid-denier. And of course the media did everything possible to inflame the situation (see, eg the NYT article today about possibly using a NYC public park as a mass grave).
I don’t know what the best approach would have been if we could rewind back to February 1, but it would have been great if there had been some hearings and debate and scientific scrutiny of say the Imperial College model, and about targeted lockdowns of nursing homes, and about the concept of herd immunity —before we caused so much financial misery for so many people.
Even Fauci in January said this was not a current threat to the united states
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My problem from the beginning of this has been the groupthink driving the policy decisions — and discouraging dissent. Maybe a recession-causing mass shutdown WAS the best option, but there was virtually no public debate concerning:
1. the accuracy of the epidemiological models driving policy; and
2. whether a more targeted approach (adopted by other countries, like Sweden) might be a lesser evil, considering the dire economic impact.
Basically, you were either on Team Fauci, and accepted the apocalyptic curve models (which had flaws apparent to even a layman) or you were an anti-science covid-denier. And of course the media did everything possible to inflame the situation (see, eg the NYT article today about possibly using a NYC public park as a mass grave).
I don’t know what the best approach would have been if we could rewind back to February 1, but it would have been great if there had been some hearings and debate and scientific scrutiny of say the Imperial College model, and about targeted lockdowns of nursing homes, and about the concept of herd immunity —before we caused so much financial misery for so many people.
Even Fauci in January said this was not a current threat to the united states
NYGiants16, I appreciate your stamina in playing devil’s advocate on this thread concerning all this, from the very beginning. Same with Paterson Plank and FMiC and a few others. It’s exhausting to constantly subject news reports and popular opinion to scrutiny — but reasonable scrutiny is the best means we have for getting at the truth on any issue. Cheers.
This pandemic was/is going to impact the whole planet. The whole world economy included. There are mitigation steps that certain countries have taken that have proven more effective than others and the sooner everyone can implement them the sooner we will all get beyond this. We shouldn't be making excuses as to why we are behind SK/Germany we should be doing everything in our power to copy them (and innovate beyond them) and help other countries do the same so playing defense in the future waves is easier until the vaccine arrives.
The people sounding the alarms and pulling their hair out weren't doing it because they didn't leave room in their minds that the models could be wrong or because of the others who thought it was only going to be 70% as bad as they did. They were doing it because even if the models were way over-inflated, it was still an emergency and the most powerful people-- the decision makers-- were taking the complete opposite tack.
They were saying "it's going to go from 15 to Zero" and that it was going to "magically disappear" and that the people who were sounding the alarms were doing it as a politically motivated hoax.
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In comment 14860882 Ron Hussler said:
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The Chloronique (sp) and Z Packs have been working in New York?
Cuomo asked trump to send more, so maybe it is working?
This is obviously an extremely small example but I just spoke to one of my clients today. Both his parents ended up in Syosset hospital on LI. Both 69. They never made it to ventilators thank God but both were on oxygen and pretty sick. His Dad was hallucinating from his fever. They were both given this combo and got better within a day and both made a full recovery and are back home after a week or so in the hospital.
This really is some positive news!!! I wish people would be more apt to embracing the good stuff, not so gloom and doom..Even if it's just once in awhile
Glad to hear this Danny!!
I dont watch it on TV, I check out BBI for the covid forum to see if anything interesting is posted. Lotsa good material but some of it starting to fall off the rails.
Ask my wife if they are in surge yet here in bay area
No overnights for her so that means NO
I try to be careful, if i go into rite aide (more workers than customers), I clean up as soon as I get to office nearby distance kept in office lotsa lysol wipes hand washing etc
Trying to get my mom to stop watching it 24/7
So far it's been tested as limiting other Coronaviruses in nice, not Covid-19 itself, since mice aren't susceptible to Covid 19.
New anti Coronavirus drug being tested in mice. - ( New Window )
this is not the proper venue for a political debate - we have issued warning after warning about it -- more than a dozen bannings - hundreds of deletions and the political debate eeps raging.
It's up to you all if you want to see this thread continue - the political arguing has to cease
It's like discussing why the Giants have been .500 or better one time since 2012 without being able to talk about the coaching staff or front office.
It's like discussing why the Giants have been .500 or better one time since 2012 without being able to talk about the coaching staff or front office.
Actually its laughable to think that people can't adhere to the rules of the website administrator on the website they want to post on. Its not a govt site, its a private enterprise.
Every decision our country makes at this point is now political because they are state or national directives.
The state of our hospitals, discussions about masks, PPE, shelters in place, etc., are all inherently political to some degree.
Even conversations or complaints about the media are political by the very fact that they have been intentionally politicized.
The thread has been fine.
People can expect and hope for what they want, but again, need to consider what is/was realistic.
This isn't like closing school in case it snows, and then not having a snowstorm and just thinking "whatever, better safe than sorry". Shutting down the economy to the extent some people suggested much earlier in the timeline (in hindsight of course) is unrealistic to me, not because it shouldn't have been done, but because it wasn't feasible.
Unfortunately the nature of the USA is just that if there was a nation wide shut down before any carnage people would not have respected it nor would they feel it was warranted. Especially given the variability of the models.
So, sure people can say what we should have done in hindsight and knowing what we know now maybe some of it would have helped flatten the curve sooner and move us closer to a return to normalcy and maybe even some lives would have been saved, but IMO I don't feel like most authorities (regardless of political party - and I mean even if not done federally - every governor and probably mayor could have implemented their own local plans, and very few did early) would have enacted such measures and I don't think most people would have respected them.
Just my opinion.
And again, I don't think the blame game is appropriate at this stage, but the biggest failure that you can legitimately not second guess is the lack of preparation in terms of PPE stockpile, ventilators, hospital bed strategy, and distribution logistics - between FEMA and the state EMA's, etc. and that, as documented stretches back to 2010.
this is not the proper venue for a political debate - we have issued warning after warning about it -- more than a dozen bannings - hundreds of deletions and the political debate eeps raging.
It's up to you all if you want to see this thread continue - the political arguing has to cease
Come on man. If you see political posts then ban those users, don’t punish everyone else. I cannot prevent anyone on here from making it political, so if they are breaking rules then they should dealt with. A 4,000 post thread shouldn’t be deleted because of a few bad eggs - get rid of the eggs.
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if it keeps going in the direction and debate it is going -- it will be deleted
this is not the proper venue for a political debate - we have issued warning after warning about it -- more than a dozen bannings - hundreds of deletions and the political debate eeps raging.
It's up to you all if you want to see this thread continue - the political arguing has to cease
Come on man. If you see political posts then ban those users, don’t punish everyone else. I cannot prevent anyone on here from making it political, so if they are breaking rules then they should dealt with. A 4,000 post thread shouldn’t be deleted because of a few bad eggs - get rid of the eggs.
It's not just a few. If it were a few - it wouldn't be a problem -- it takes many hours to deal with those who insist they either haven't done anything wrong or refuse to accept this policy.
And it's not on you to stop them -- we expect everyone to regulate themselves.
The worst choice ( proven out in such things as war games or industry scenario planning) is to take the optimistic assumption and underprepare emotionally and physically. The second worst is to do little while waiting to see.
Taking actions based on a reasonable worst case scenario, not studying is the key to unknown scenario planning.
Then adjust or accelerate or decelerate as reality evolves.
What our military has been doing since the 1960's when there are multiple possible outcomes and none exceeds a 35% odds of happening
That's not what we did.
It's like discussing why the Giants have been .500 or better one time since 2012 without being able to talk about the coaching staff or front office.
The fact that you don’t get it is what’s laughable. Though it’s not surprising. This thread has been up for weeks and was an incredible thread for information. Then, suddenly when it was unpinned it turned into the monstrosity that it is now. Notice all of the contributors that were passing along quality info, data and projections have now disappeared? I wonder why?
Take your fucking circle jerk somewhere else. I’m sure there are plenty of sites that have the same political biases you and the other clowns on this thread have that have turned this political. And I’m sure you know right where to find those sites. That’s not what this thread was about. Until the typical mob mentality took over. Be better.
this is not the proper venue for a political debate - we have issued warning after warning about it -- more than a dozen bannings - hundreds of deletions and the political debate eeps raging.
It's up to you all if you want to see this thread continue - the political arguing has to cease
Gidie, this might be the most important thread in BBI history. Please don’t delete this. I’m relying on this daily for real info and avoiding the news as much as I can. I can’t believe I even have to plead to you. Cmon man.
Craziest thing I have ever heard
Craziest thing I have ever heard
Haha, I know. This world is bat shit crazy. And apparently Woody Harrelson is on board with this conspiracy too. Ugh...
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How does installing a 5G tower spread a virus?
Craziest thing I have ever heard
Haha, I know. This world is bat shit crazy. And apparently Woody Harrelson is on board with this conspiracy too. Ugh...
Yeah I was just reading that he posted some stuff about it
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there could be a thread/conversation about a global pandemic that has brought our economy to a halt and has locked people in their homes as they hear stories friends and family dying and exhausted healthcare workers with inadequate protection, and not be able to discuss the actions of decision-makers which have contributed to this situation.
It's like discussing why the Giants have been .500 or better one time since 2012 without being able to talk about the coaching staff or front office.
The fact that you don’t get it is what’s laughable. Though it’s not surprising. This thread has been up for weeks and was an incredible thread for information. Then, suddenly when it was unpinned it turned into the monstrosity that it is now. Notice all of the contributors that were passing along quality info, data and projections have now disappeared? I wonder why?
Take your fucking circle jerk somewhere else. I’m sure there are plenty of sites that have the same political biases you and the other clowns on this thread have that have turned this political. And I’m sure you know right where to find those sites. That’s not what this thread was about. Until the typical mob mentality took over. Be better.
Oh fuck off with the circle jerk comments. Criticizing the decisions of the people in charge does not require political bias and it should be allowed. But beyond that, my point stands-- to have a communal thread (the most active thread at the moment on this board) and not be able to criticize the people we have in charge who are making some of the most consequential decisions in the last decade in this country is again, nonsensical.
Earlier in this thread you wrote:
Florida has no one to blame but themselves
BigBlueShock : 3/29/2020 12:14 pm : link : reply
They kept the beaches open, hotels open, etc. People from all over the world were there because they were open for business while the rest of the planet was on lockdown. This shit didn’t start in NYC, and it won’t end there either. Blaming New Yorkers is a bit disingenuous, IMO.
You're criticizing Florida government officials for their decisions and chastising them for deflecting blame. It's a reasonable post and one I completely agree with. And it's something that should be totally fine given the gravity of this topic. And, just as if you were to replace "Florida" with "The United States" it would have political connotations because no one is ignorant to who is in charge of the United States-- and that should be allowed.
"I just found out, that a girl got killed here last week, and you knew it! You knew there was a shark out there! You knew it was dangerous! But you let people go swimming anyway? You knew all those things! But still my boy is dead now. And there's nothing you can do about it. My boy is dead. I wanted you to know that."
"I'm sorry, Martin. She's wrong."
"No, she's not."
The worst choice ( proven out in such things as war games or industry scenario planning) is to take the optimistic assumption and underprepare emotionally and physically. The second worst is to do little while waiting to see.
Taking actions based on a reasonable worst case scenario, not studying is the key to unknown scenario planning.
Then adjust or accelerate or decelerate as reality evolves.
What our military has been doing since the 1960's when there are multiple possible outcomes and none exceeds a 35% odds of happening
That's not what we did.
The presentation today at noon from the NY Governor included his statistician showing two projections and the actual to date. And it looks like assuming the worst and taking action based on the worst possible outcome may have led to the least bad actual outcome. It’s far too soon for anyone to be taking a victory lap, but I have confidence that the state of NY, our healthcare providers and all of the wonderful and amazing volunteers are are doing everything possible to lead us out of this health crisis. And there’s data to indicate that those of us in the northeast and west coast states are doing a fairly good job with social distancing.
The worst choice ( proven out in such things as war games or industry scenario planning) is to take the optimistic assumption and underprepare emotionally and physically. The second worst is to do little while waiting to see.
Taking actions based on a reasonable worst case scenario, not studying is the key to unknown scenario planning.
Then adjust or accelerate or decelerate as reality evolves.
What our military has been doing since the 1960's when there are multiple possible outcomes and none exceeds a 35% odds of happening
That's not what we did.
Bill, you are a total treasure. This is perfectly sourced and said.
Quote:
there could be a thread/conversation about a global pandemic that has brought our economy to a halt and has locked people in their homes as they hear stories friends and family dying and exhausted healthcare workers with inadequate protection, and not be able to discuss the actions of decision-makers which have contributed to this situation.
It's like discussing why the Giants have been .500 or better one time since 2012 without being able to talk about the coaching staff or front office.
The fact that you don’t get it is what’s laughable. Though it’s not surprising. This thread has been up for weeks and was an incredible thread for information. Then, suddenly when it was unpinned it turned into the monstrosity that it is now. Notice all of the contributors that were passing along quality info, data and projections have now disappeared? I wonder why?
Take your fucking circle jerk somewhere else. I’m sure there are plenty of sites that have the same political biases you and the other clowns on this thread have that have turned this political. And I’m sure you know right where to find those sites. That’s not what this thread was about. Until the typical mob mentality took over. Be better.
The above is a baldly political statement.
The 10x increase in home deaths alone is pretty shocking and seems to indicate the situation is bad.
I think if you are in NYC the message is pretty simple. Follow the guidelines, stay home, if you have to go out wear a mask and stay away from people. I have to go out to walk the dog. The sidewalks in Brooklyn are much less crowded than usual but still crowded enough you’re gonna run into people most blocks, even on side streets. I have just been crossing the street whenever I have someone coming towards me and the other side is empty. There are also far fewer cars so you can often just hop out into the street if needed.
New York is definitely not the best place to be during this shit but whatever it’s home and I wouldn’t leave for anywhere else. Just stay smart.
The worst choice ( proven out in such things as war games or industry scenario planning) is to take the optimistic assumption and underprepare emotionally and physically. The second worst is to do little while waiting to see.
Taking actions based on a reasonable worst case scenario, not studying is the key to unknown scenario planning.
Then adjust or accelerate or decelerate as reality evolves.
What our military has been doing since the 1960's when there are multiple possible outcomes and none exceeds a 35% odds of happening
That's not what we did.
Bill, does this method of decision-making factor in the side effects caused by taking the actions needed to prepare for worst? (I’m not talking about having enough PPE etc, I’m talking about the side effects of ordering an economic shutdown).
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When faced with several possibilities the rule of thumb is to take the worst outcome with at least a 35% chance of happening and to prepare as fast as possible for that to come true.
The worst choice ( proven out in such things as war games or industry scenario planning) is to take the optimistic assumption and underprepare emotionally and physically. The second worst is to do little while waiting to see.
Taking actions based on a reasonable worst case scenario, not studying is the key to unknown scenario planning.
Then adjust or accelerate or decelerate as reality evolves.
What our military has been doing since the 1960's when there are multiple possible outcomes and none exceeds a 35% odds of happening
That's not what we did.
Bill, you are a total treasure. This is perfectly sourced and said.
x2. Always informative.
I think it is commentary about the growing tone deaf and action deaf gulf between the elites and the majority in this country.
I also think many in government and most institutions ( both parties and I include hospitals and corporations) are so used to a life of words and slight of hand verbal re packaging that they intuitively reach for the hammer they perfected and therefore only see nails everywhere.
Meanwhile the tools of choice are cut through it actions
Values...human values are the most important thing to preserve. You never get back the consent of the governed if you prioritize economic outcomes ( especially when the rent extraction of the system is so favorable to the few) over the perception of losses of people in families and communities.
4000 years shows about a 100% correlation
Secondly, if you don't start preparing for the worst the chances are overwhelming that you may have to go there...and you have lost the credibility to get voluntary and rapid compliance.
Losing even more of the consent of the governed when you already have demonstrated tone deaf to their participation in the gravy train is how you invite the Visigoths in because you cant call on another effort.
One the other hand you can have a horrible history taking care of the people but if you rally to defend the motherland then you might get 50 more years of consent.
My issue is that social stability and cooperation of the generally unrewarded governed requires a clear and overwhelming trust that in a crisis their lives and loved ones come first.
Dangerous to let too much emotional evidence feed an alternative narrative about a society
Values...human values are the most important thing to preserve. You never get back the consent of the governed if you prioritize economic outcomes ( especially when the rent extraction of the system is so favorable to the few) over the perception of losses of people in families and communities.
4000 years shows about a 100% correlation
Secondly, if you don't start preparing for the worst the chances are overwhelming that you may have to go there...and you have lost the credibility to get voluntary and rapid compliance.
Losing even more of the consent of the governed when you already have demonstrated tone deaf to their participation in the gravy train is how you invite the Visigoths in because you cant call on another effort.
One the other hand you can have a horrible history taking care of the people but if you rally to defend the motherland then you might get 50 more years of consent.
My issue is that social stability and cooperation of the generally unrewarded governed requires a clear and overwhelming trust that in a crisis their lives and loved ones come first.
Dangerous to let too much emotional evidence feed an alternative narrative about a society
Fantastic answer. Thanks for taking the time Bill. I might misappropriate this in conversations w/ friends and family so maybe they’ll think I’m smart ... nah they know me too well. Cheers.
I'm in violent agreement with anyone who wants the focus to be on doing whatever it takes to productively moving forward out of the crisis - but the way to do that is not by repeating the mistakes that got us here, it's to listen to bill gates, fauci, gottlieb, bossert, larry brilliant, and the dozens of geniuses whom we are lucky to have had studying this for decades, who tried to raise the alarms in the first place, and are all recommending some version the same things (ramping up testing far faster, widescale surveillance, a federally led cohesive plan to re-open, etc).
Its just one example of the truism that its dangerous to not put the peoples well being first in a time of crisis and failing to do so leads to decades of rot ( if not revolution) in a society.
Look at the rootless submissive I don't care reaction by the average German after their leaders got so many of their children and men killed with the callousness of trench warfare of WW1. Look at the passivity of the French who had not yet healed at the family and town level from Somme and the Marne and Passchendaele and Verdun.
My point behind using the Communist party of Russia was to point out they got the same "save my family and myself" reaction earned by their horrible social experiments ( The Great Leap Forward and many other exploitations of the common families).
Hitler believed he could exploit the dissatisfaction of the people with their governors. And he did until they clearly said: " we are going to lose our way of life and our lives and our children if we don't do this hard hard thing for our families and way of life ( "The Motherland").
It worked. And resisting those in authority gave way to doing the hard hard thing.
Many less than the 30-60 million Russian lives lost in the 1940's might have been avoided if they started with more evidence the new rulers were at least putting outcomes for the people first.
Track the degree of compliance with tax collection regulations and see if you don't see the same erosion underway. Add the sense the elites don't care and its may take decades but you might mirror Greece's future... where the majority of the commerce is off the books and into those who know how to organize corruption
The point is to not dissect these examples...its not a debate. There are hundreds of examples down through history to guide the answer to your question. If you want an effective society you have to protect the peoples health when it is threatened.
Ignore a famine or two and then try to ask for more effort to storm the next castle? It doesn't work
Never muck with the consent of the governed. Its very very difficult to get back once it leaks and fray's.
the governed rarely revolt. Most often they just go passive and avoid commitments to the social good...for decades afterwards.
Cynicism kills.
To quote Pogo: " We have met the enemy face to face and he is us"
I'm in violent agreement with anyone who wants the focus to be on doing whatever it takes to productively moving forward out of the crisis - but the way to do that is not by repeating the mistakes that got us here, it's to listen to bill gates, fauci, gottlieb, bossert, larry brilliant, and the dozens of geniuses whom we are lucky to have had studying this for decades, who tried to raise the alarms in the first place, and are all recommending some version the same things (ramping up testing far faster, widescale surveillance, a federally led cohesive plan to re-open, etc).
Remember the hurricane before Sandy? NYC reacted appropriately but it turned out to be milder than expected. Everybody complained and then did not take the measures during Sandy seriously, causing more deaths, injuries, and damage.
Obviously, if you always go overboard and these events are always mild, it becomes the boy who cried wolf. But, people too often act like the government is acting irresponsibly or as an annoyance by taking serious matters seriously. That factors in to decision making, I'm sure, especially in election years.
Does this mean that is why we were slow to react in NYC, NYS, and the US? I don't know. But, it is possible as at least 1 factor.
I'm in violent agreement with anyone who wants the focus to be on doing whatever it takes to productively moving forward out of the crisis - but the way to do that is not by repeating the mistakes that got us here, it's to listen to bill gates, fauci, gottlieb, bossert, larry brilliant, and the dozens of geniuses whom we are lucky to have had studying this for decades, who tried to raise the alarms in the first place, and are all recommending some version the same things (ramping up testing far faster, widescale surveillance, a federally led cohesive plan to re-open, etc).
I'm not sure what kind of argument deaths per capita is. Death is a lagging indicator and on worldometer, we're lagging only Germany (which we know does not count anyone with another issue as a CV death, so its apples and oranges) and South Korea.
No one has issue with blanketly saying our response hasnt been good enough, at Federal or state levels (NY didnt adequately prepare for years for this). The issues are when people cant help themselves and start talking about how so and so shouldnt give daily pressers, or quoting "15 will be 0 soon"
These are Eric's rules and they are good ones. I for one dont give a shit what yours or anyone on here's political opinions are. Lets stick to facts, this has been a generally great thread - even the modelers bring a little value... and its great (although sometimes painfully sad) to read the stories firsthand of those who know confirmed cases.
It was today confirmed our Nanny has had this for 17 days. Thank God she developed symptoms on a friday before the weekend so she didnt expose us further (though we think my wife gave it to her), and more importantly that her low grade fever finally broke today after persistently being 99-99.5 for almost 10 days. She's late 30s and no underlying health conditions - said she was sore, tired and felt awful for two weeks. This thing is one mother fucker and i just hope someone can figure out soon why some people in same age/health brackets get the ever living shit kicked out of them.. while others are entirely asymptomatic.
Given my wife (we're 90% certain) and caretaker had this, I'm pretty sure i thankfully fell in the asymptomatic camp. I had a bad cough and some shortness of breath (probably somewhat mental) for 7-10 days.
Kept saying given her age and conditions so far she was not a priority.
So... until we get to universal testing, i dont give one little shit about the "mortality rate" - its bullshit as its skewed to the highest risk segments of our population.
re the post I believe we are in agreement - everyone should stick to facts and I don't believe I've ever argued anything otherwise. There's a reason the majority of my posts on this subject for the past couple months link off to the work/opinions of people a lot smarter than I am.
The 2 facts I was trying to articulate were simply that based on death totals alone this is already a tragedy at a scale we rarely see. The other is that I view the what you yourself conveyed as a fact, that the overall response hasn't been good enough and there remains an urgent need to do better. Perhaps I misread the last few pages but it seemed to me there was sentiment to either argue or minimize those 2 facts, or obfuscate by labeling them as political.
My business is set to re-open next week (auto repair). We have 3 shops, 2 of which have been open (less hours, short crews) for this entire time. My shop is in Bergen County and the business was not there to offset the risk. I don’t want to open Monday-I think it is not worth the risk.
The worry over business, will business be there? Are we going to lose customers? Will people just turn to a shop that’s open and never come back? My thoughts are-WHO CARES!?! Between the three stores we have 22 ish people and my opinion is if we are open, someone amongst that crew is getting this virus. And then what? Was it worth it? Do we all get it? Won’t the people just come back once this is over, as they have been coming to us for 40 plus years?
This virus is forcing us to consider the worst and showing us that some people consider “the worst” to be no money as opposed to death.
Mistakes are forgiven or forgotten. Disregard is not. Witness our own relationships and how much is lost once too much selfishness accumulates. Hard to ever get that label reversed.
There are four broad critiques about the collective elites that can come out of this:
1) lack of preparation cost lives.
2) lack of competence cost lives
3) perception of the lack of leadership cost lives.
Right now, my guess is that all three are not in an irretrievable state. We dont know yet. I dont think anyone will get any credit that lasts long ( think Bush1 popularity ratings after Gulf1 and then the impression of "not engaged and out of touch" after even a small recession)
4) however, i think the biggest vulnerability to every part of the financial political elite is ahead of us. It will be the inability of this generation of leaders to think ahead. I have seen very little evidence of being able to project into the weeks ahead or start on solutions that are going to be needed.
This instinct for seeking presentation advantage and class gain through solutions that leave the majority second and bought off with relative pablum will come a cropper when it comes to rebuilding an effective economy where the nations wealth is well invested here.
I dont believe reviving the economy is being seriously grappled with at all. I dont see a plan for a month ahead, six months ahead or years ahead. In effect, the economy is supposed to just start on its own when leaders of both parties at each level...say: "Go" ?
Then when that doesnt work we will load up a sled of gifts for the loudest lobbyists and call it biggest ever stimulus bill?
Imo, our elites have shown since the oil crisis of the 1970's that they do not understand the real street level reality of the real people in the country.
I think that built in class obtuseness will fail us all ( them included) when it comes to the biggest challenge of the crisis
...re building.
I dont see a George C Marshal anywhere. I dont see a Marshall Plan for the USA coming out of this group. I dont see a Alexander Hamilton looking ahead a century and building the foundations for national wealth. I dont see the Erie Canal. I dont see the Homestead Act or the TVA coming out of this group. Not enough grift for their interrelated parasites in those ideas
I see folks focused on their next election cycle advised by a class of professional fluffers who crowd out smart challenges.
So I dont think our perceptions about who is doing or who didnt is anywhere close to being finalized. And unlike where we stand now, generally with accusations thrown from ones partisan tower...its when there is consensus behind that verdict that may be dangerous. That's going to be one to two years from now.
In the meantime I sure hope we all have learned that our world really comes down to very few people and most of them are our families. They, not the idiots who think getting elected means they are smart, are the ones who will get us through.
Economic crisis full focus
Political crisis.
The political consequences may or may not come so imo all we are doing now is expressing anger and frustration ( for real reasons) that may not turn into actions by the time the sequence runs its course.
Meanwhile I'm not seeing high ground in any parties behavior. Just scrambling around for crumbs of credit.
Meet the new days same as the old days
Never muck with the consent of the governed. Its very very difficult to get back once it leaks and fray's.
the governed rarely revolt. Most often they just go passive and avoid commitments to the social good...for decades afterwards.
Cynicism kills.
To quote Pogo: " We have met the enemy face to face and he is us"
Bill, if you started a blog, I would read your thoughts on the fucking phone book. Not sure my attaboys are worth the paper they're printed on, but a tip of the cap and a thanks to you for always injecting reason and an interesting perspective with knowledge and insight.
Quote:
But the bottom line is simple:
Never muck with the consent of the governed. Its very very difficult to get back once it leaks and fray's.
the governed rarely revolt. Most often they just go passive and avoid commitments to the social good...for decades afterwards.
Cynicism kills.
To quote Pogo: " We have met the enemy face to face and he is us"
Bill, if you started a blog, I would read your thoughts on the fucking phone book. Not sure my attaboys are worth the paper they're printed on, but a tip of the cap and a thanks to you for always injecting reason and an interesting perspective with knowledge and insight.
+1
And those of many posters on the thread
Economic crisis full focus
Political crisis.
The political consequences may or may not come so imo all we are doing now is expressing anger and frustration ( for real reasons) that may not turn into actions by the time the sequence runs its course.
Meanwhile I'm not seeing high ground in any parties behavior. Just scrambling around for crumbs of credit.
Meet the new days same as the old days
You are undoubtedly a smart guy so not being able to see a distinction between the way the two parties have handled this pandemic and other viral outbreaks in recent history has to be willful. It's easy to take the haughty position of "tut, tut... both sides are lousy". But, in truth, these differences are meaningful. They are meaningful in ways that nitpicking over entitlements, tax policy, social justice, etc are not. These differences have at times saved and at times cost lives. Glossing over the differences by describing them as scrambling for crumbs of credit may provide you a comfortable intellectual position above the fray. I get that. But you give up some intellectual honesty in retiring to that centrist high ground, too.
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In comment 14861197 Bill2 said:
Quote:
But the bottom line is simple:
Never muck with the consent of the governed. Its very very difficult to get back once it leaks and fray's.
the governed rarely revolt. Most often they just go passive and avoid commitments to the social good...for decades afterwards.
Cynicism kills.
To quote Pogo: " We have met the enemy face to face and he is us"
Bill, if you started a blog, I would read your thoughts on the fucking phone book. Not sure my attaboys are worth the paper they're printed on, but a tip of the cap and a thanks to you for always injecting reason and an interesting perspective with knowledge and insight.
+1
+2
WE could really use two Covid-19 threads. One for facts, news, and personal updates, and a 2nd for discussion - like the darn BBI mock draft threads.
-Business owner for many years who might even own the property with established long time client base and debt free versus newer owner paying a lease with a short time building of customer base who is highly leveraged.
-Government employee or salaried employee who really the only thing they are losing is having to stay home and living life (enjoyment) versus someone who makes a living on a monthly basis relying on the country being open for business.
I don't have the break down of the percentage of people who are losing something during this but that percentage of those who are versus those who are not I suspect factor in to what is the correct way to handle this. When I say "something" I mean financial income not investment. Many times investments can come back.
I think there is a different level of sacrifice depending on one's situation and this is what makes decisions by government complicated which leads to them trying to talk to different audiences.
Let's hope the testing issue is resolved so we can figure out more accurate data which looks like we are well on our way to doing and begin to open things back.
Lack of preparation was the culprit here. Unfortunately we do not live in political times where one can acknowledge that and where people would respect that and recognize this crisis was many years in the making.
Quote:
Health crisis full focus
Economic crisis full focus
Political crisis.
The political consequences may or may not come so imo all we are doing now is expressing anger and frustration ( for real reasons) that may not turn into actions by the time the sequence runs its course.
Meanwhile I'm not seeing high ground in any parties behavior. Just scrambling around for crumbs of credit.
Meet the new days same as the old days
You are undoubtedly a smart guy so not being able to see a distinction between the way the two parties have handled this pandemic and other viral outbreaks in recent history has to be willful. It's easy to take the haughty position of "tut, tut... both sides are lousy". But, in truth, these differences are meaningful. They are meaningful in ways that nitpicking over entitlements, tax policy, social justice, etc are not. These differences have at times saved and at times cost lives. Glossing over the differences by describing them as scrambling for crumbs of credit may provide you a comfortable intellectual position above the fray. I get that. But you give up some intellectual honesty in retiring to that centrist high ground, too.
This is an example of the overtly political posts that shouldn't be on this thread. In times of crisis, both political parties have had their successes and failures and results in between. They've had things done out of self-serving motivation and for the public-serving motivation
Bill is saying that he's not seeing a higher ground for either side. Trying to refute that is not only going to derail this thread and get posts/posters banned, but it is worthless to the discussion.
That is both sides. So clearly.
Quote:
In comment 14861272 Bill2 said:
Quote:
Health crisis full focus
Economic crisis full focus
Political crisis.
The political consequences may or may not come so imo all we are doing now is expressing anger and frustration ( for real reasons) that may not turn into actions by the time the sequence runs its course.
Meanwhile I'm not seeing high ground in any parties behavior. Just scrambling around for crumbs of credit.
Meet the new days same as the old days
You are undoubtedly a smart guy so not being able to see a distinction between the way the two parties have handled this pandemic and other viral outbreaks in recent history has to be willful. It's easy to take the haughty position of "tut, tut... both sides are lousy". But, in truth, these differences are meaningful. They are meaningful in ways that nitpicking over entitlements, tax policy, social justice, etc are not. These differences have at times saved and at times cost lives. Glossing over the differences by describing them as scrambling for crumbs of credit may provide you a comfortable intellectual position above the fray. I get that. But you give up some intellectual honesty in retiring to that centrist high ground, too.
This is an example of the overtly political posts that shouldn't be on this thread. In times of crisis, both political parties have had their successes and failures and results in between. They've had things done out of self-serving motivation and for the public-serving motivation
Bill is saying that he's not seeing a higher ground for either side. Trying to refute that is not only going to derail this thread and get posts/posters banned, but it is worthless to the discussion.
So, saying both sides are essentially the same is NOT an overtly political post on this thread? But mine, which doesn't lay blame on either side is? That's interesting. Bill2 is obviously making a political argument. It's just an argument that is oddly considered apolitical.
It is hard to dispute your points as above.
One thing that has become painfully obvious is reliance on an enemy/competitor for vital good was because of corporate greed with the acquiescence of the public for cheap goods. There were a few that sounded the alarm. To me the final stab in the back was Jeffrey Immelt sending is jet engine division to China while he was on a DC economic board, knowing full well that China steals designs from manufacturers dumb enough to do business there. WTF was he thinking?
If we do not distance ourselves from them after this is over, we will have learned nothing. Threats to deny medicines and antibiotics, lying about the origins and effects, attempts to shift blame in an attempt to cover up massive failures....
Once you add in state and local failures and mis steps to federal and congressional mis steps...there is no doubt our leaders did not do as well as they could have. How their decisions play out we do not know yet
Much much harder to acknowledge that during chaos no one is an expert.
Lastly, there were no personal attacks nor aspersions cast on any other poster by any of my posts. None, In fact, it was a supportive discussion towards ones fellow posters
Thanks for fixing that in the future.
It is hard to dispute your points as above.
One thing that has become painfully obvious is reliance on an enemy/competitor for vital good was because of corporate greed with the acquiescence of the public for cheap goods. There were a few that sounded the alarm. To me the final stab in the back was Jeffrey Immelt sending is jet engine division to China while he was on a DC economic board, knowing full well that China steals designs from manufacturers dumb enough to do business there. WTF was he thinking?
If we do not distance ourselves from them after this is over, we will have learned nothing. Threats to deny medicines and antibiotics, lying about the origins and effects, attempts to shift blame in an attempt to cover up massive failures....
Agree with your thoughts. I think China will be dealt with and it will be with support of many of our allies. Best to focus on the crisis for now but they will be dealt with imo.
Once you add in state and local failures and mis steps to federal and congressional mis steps...there is no doubt our leaders did not do as well as they could have. How their decisions play out we do not know yet
Much much harder to acknowledge that during chaos no one is an expert.
Lastly, there were no personal attacks nor aspersions cast on any other poster by any of my posts. None, In fact, it was a supportive discussion towards ones fellow posters
Thanks for fixing that in the future.
It doesn't have to be blame. It has to be an opportunity to learn. There has been a variety of responses at all levels of government and by leaders of both parties. Some have done well, on balance. Some have done poorly. There are real differences in the decisions made and messages sent. We could discuss those choices (ok, we couldn't do that here because of the ban on political posts, I agree) and decide to do more of what works and less of what doesn't. That's how a functional society would work. And taking the position that both sides are just scrambling for crumbs of credit when clearly the details are a little more nuanced than that is not much of a contribution at all. At some point, we should try to learn and be ready for the next outbreak.
You are a talented individual. Cheers.
Take them for what they are, an anecdotal take on a mid-size combined suburban/exurban area of the country:
1. Although not stated in the email, they are prescribing Hydroxychloroquine but it’s unclear if any of the cases in this list got it as a treatment
2. 59 total patients confirmed positive
3. 13 hospitalized, 6 in ICU.
4. 33 Persons Under Investigation (PUI’s) (not hospitalized, receiving treatment).
5. 4 patients successfully REMOVED from ventilation! (extubated)
6. 13 discharged patients.
7. NO FATALITIES!
This is REALLY good stuff. First, the patient load is relatively low. It will most likely get worse in the next week or so but is soon expected to peak and level off. Second, they are successfully treating people as of the moment.
If you wish to make a post that effectively or ineffectively apportions blame in a useful way that helps us at this time...then do that. Go for it. Show you are bold instead of making passive aggressive attacks on a strawman
Don't critique what you think I wrote for not saying what you silently think but wont say. I wrote what I wanted to say. Sorry it doesn't fit your sensibilities of what others should write. And not to you in any personal way. Do the same.
Better yet, lets take a permanent break from this useless cul de sac.
See you on a Yankee thread some day
We have been trying to get food delivered. The sevice our butcher uses didn't have an open slot until 4/27 as of last week. A week ago on Fresh Direct their availabe slots were sold out through 4/9, other services are the same and/or are sold out of essential items.
So, we do our best to limit the time out. We go to small markets where there has been less traffic and a better dedication among customers and staff to maintain distance. We use our butcher as a source for a great deal more, as they have a little market including produce. But, the reality is, in a small NYC apartment with 5 people, we don't have the capacity to stock up for a month or so. We have crammed as much frozen food in our freezer as possible.
Now my wife is having panic attacks over going out during what they are referring to as the apex. Hat are we supposed to do getting close to running out of cleaning product, paper towel, and bathroom tissue and none of that available in stores no matter the day or time we go, forcing us to go from store to store?
As an aside, we don't need it, but I marvel at every store being sold out of flour. I don't buy for a second that most of the people buying up an item like this will bake even a single loaf of bread. In a couple of months, there will be selfish and/or crazed people finding themselves with flour they never used and never will, enough toilet paper or paper towels to last them a year, etc while people like us who refuse to hoard are scrambling like scavengers each week.
How many businesses in Florida, New Orleans, Houston, Puerto Rico, the Caribbean, the Carolinas, the tornados recently in Ten, and even here in the tri-state during Sandy have been hit by weather related natural disasters that leave them in far worse shape than described above? They are called natural disasters for a reason. I am not minimizing the economic hardships currently on businesses or people, just contextualizing that there are many businesses who deal with hardships from natural disasters seasonally and regularly. This is a seasonal and irregular natural disaster that's global.
I wonder if it's somewhat similar with flour, especially since that's already likely a far less demanded non-commercial product (just guessing that there are a lot less bakers than home TP users).
Quote:
Health crisis full focus
Economic crisis full focus
Political crisis.
The political consequences may or may not come so imo all we are doing now is expressing anger and frustration ( for real reasons) that may not turn into actions by the time the sequence runs its course.
Meanwhile I'm not seeing high ground in any parties behavior. Just scrambling around for crumbs of credit.
Meet the new days same as the old days
You are undoubtedly a smart guy so not being able to see a distinction between the way the two parties have handled this pandemic and other viral outbreaks in recent history has to be willful. It's easy to take the haughty position of "tut, tut... both sides are lousy". But, in truth, these differences are meaningful. They are meaningful in ways that nitpicking over entitlements, tax policy, social justice, etc are not. These differences have at times saved and at times cost lives. Glossing over the differences by describing them as scrambling for crumbs of credit may provide you a comfortable intellectual position above the fray. I get that. But you give up some intellectual honesty in retiring to that centrist high ground, too.
Bye bye!
We aren't passing policy on BBI so "learning from this" is something that I hope BBIers are doing and practicing in their communities. But we aren't changing policies here so i'm not sure what you are trying to achieve.
Just give it a rest, these posts are tiresome.
We have been trying to get food delivered. The sevice our butcher uses didn't have an open slot until 4/27 as of last week. A week ago on Fresh Direct their availabe slots were sold out through 4/9, other services are the same and/or are sold out of essential items.
So, we do our best to limit the time out. We go to small markets where there has been less traffic and a better dedication among customers and staff to maintain distance. We use our butcher as a source for a great deal more, as they have a little market including produce. But, the reality is, in a small NYC apartment with 5 people, we don't have the capacity to stock up for a month or so. We have crammed as much frozen food in our freezer as possible.
Now my wife is having panic attacks over going out during what they are referring to as the apex. Hat are we supposed to do getting close to running out of cleaning product, paper towel, and bathroom tissue and none of that available in stores no matter the day or time we go, forcing us to go from store to store?
As an aside, we don't need it, but I marvel at every store being sold out of flour. I don't buy for a second that most of the people buying up an item like this will bake even a single loaf of bread. In a couple of months, there will be selfish and/or crazed people finding themselves with flour they never used and never will, enough toilet paper or paper towels to last them a year, etc while people like us who refuse to hoard are scrambling like scavengers each week.
Dr Birx made that offhand comment in the Sunday presser and no one seemed to pick up on it. I’m guessing they just want to blunt the spread as much as humanly possible next two weeks so we can get back to normal sooner rather than an imminent danger from going to a grocery store. But hard to know because no reporter pressed her on it and no one else at that presser reiterated that guideline.
Anyway it’s wishful thinking - people aren’t going to hole up for two weeks. Especially in cities.
Take them for what they are, an anecdotal take on a mid-size combined suburban/exurban area of the country:
1. Although not stated in the email, they are prescribing Hydroxychloroquine but it’s unclear if any of the cases in this list got it as a treatment
2. 59 total patients confirmed positive
3. 13 hospitalized, 6 in ICU.
4. 33 Persons Under Investigation (PUI’s) (not hospitalized, receiving treatment).
5. 4 patients successfully REMOVED from ventilation! (extubated)
6. 13 discharged patients.
7. NO FATALITIES!
This is REALLY good stuff. First, the patient load is relatively low. It will most likely get worse in the next week or so but is soon expected to peak and level off. Second, they are successfully treating people as of the moment.
Thanks for the update of real facts!!
Our super markets in MA I think are doing a good job. Some have begun limiting # of customers in the store at one time, sanitizing carts once they are done being used, wearing masks for protection, keeping people 6 feet (min) apart at check out, having aisles go only one way. They have early hours only for elderly.
I don't see any way with the lack of goods in some products, and limits on purchasing other products, that going to the grocery store once every two weeks is realistic for families.
There was no rice in our super market last week, no flour, limited frozen goods, almost no canned goods, and obviously no disinfectant cleaning supplies or paper goods.
Kept saying given her age and conditions so far she was not a priority.
So... until we get to universal testing, i dont give one little shit about the "mortality rate" - its bullshit as its skewed to the highest risk segments of our population.
Thanks for your notes and glad to hear the family is surviving well!!!
If you wish to make a post that effectively or ineffectively apportions blame in a useful way that helps us at this time...then do that. Go for it. Show you are bold instead of making passive aggressive attacks on a strawman
Don't critique what you think I wrote for not saying what you silently think but wont say. I wrote what I wanted to say. Sorry it doesn't fit your sensibilities of what others should write. And not to you in any personal way. Do the same.
Better yet, lets take a permanent break from this useless cul de sac.
See you on a Yankee thread some day
Fair enough. It's definitely possible I've fallen into a conflict with a strawman. I will certainly admit that I am a bit trigger happy when I see a 'both sides' argument. But you are correct that I don't have to subject you and everyone else to that.
Go Yankees! (eventually)
Nations fail when their leadership class fails to rise to challenges...especially new ones. Now, voters take all that out on political candidates ...unlike in some other countries.
But to me elites includes tons of corporate leaders who prioritized profit over supply. Tons of well heeled trough feeders the middle class will pay in the future. For example, the cruise ship, airlines, financial services industries and the many attempts since pruned by both parties to send funds to favorites.
Elites includes the commentariat who continue the news cycle game with breathless slants in every direction.
Elites include those who try to accomplish party positioning on controversial issues under the banner of a "crisis"
Elites include self serving chemical and drug manufacturers.
Elites is a leadership class divorced from the concerns of the 85-90% of the people not in the game and unable to fund a connected lobbyist and publicist.
The gap between the elites and the rest is the achilles heel of societies that shows up most obviously in a crisis. The presence of the gap seems the way of the world. Too wide and too unfeeling a degree of separation into separate rules and worlds opens wounds that don't heal and have consequences.
Short term amassing of debate points misses the long term process of a peoples abandoned. Does anyone remember who took what stance and degree of "right" of the 5% engaged with or in the Weimar Republic? Or did the whole class remaining from the debacle of 1914-1919 fail once again?
That's where we should be watching...not so much individual people but did a group slowly rise to the challenge or just stay failed or rise and they were worse?
Its tricky to assess when its happening for we might remember the leadership class of the USA was very unprepared in any useful way for the Great Depression. And Roosevelt and the corporations and the media and the religious leaders and local leaders ( and the sizeable group of university bred reform minded adherents) failed for over 8 years - bailed out by a war which got people working again. Retroactively they "won" in the sense that it all became part of a virtuous cycle with fortune added to the mix in the 1950's and early 60's.
Roosevelt got a lot of credit for listening and for trying. He did not get the earned degree of blame for his financial advisors post 1936 election decisions on the economy
So I wouldn't make judgements yet outside of "could they be doing better?". They all could. All.
New hospitalizations up, but not a lot over the past 2 days, so the 3 day trend is still down (good)
Hospitalizations look to be plateauing (good, showed a graph)
Deaths are up (bad), but he said this is a lagging indicator
So in general he still thinks NYC is on track to plateau this week. No major jumps
In truth three things are true.
One needs to see the same group think no matter who packages and sends it out attached to meaningless distinctions. The whole class flips back and forth yet still blindly acts like a class does.
One needs to see that in order not to fall to the overload of blame that happens when partisan argumentation gets in the way of whats in our benefit. No one speaks for us. Parties and media claim to speak on our behalf...claim to be less worse and sometimes even better...surely we do best holding independent minds. After all, a dirty secret is that they work for us...and they and we forget that
And finally of course one needs to discern and apportion consequences for one elite or group of elites being further down the spectrum of our interests. Of course one needs make judgements at the electoral level for we all know that we are better off choosing the recent lesser of two acting troupes.
take care
I wonder if it's somewhat similar with flour, especially since that's already likely a far less demanded non-commercial product (just guessing that there are a lot less bakers than home TP users).
In the weeks since, people in the area will post when a store gets a shipment in. Each time, they are completely sold out of these items within a couple of hours. I'm talking about large grocery stores and pharmacies that have large shelves normally lined with these staples. That is hoarding and panic buying, plain and simple.
Our super markets in MA I think are doing a good job. Some have begun limiting # of customers in the store at one time, sanitizing carts once they are done being used, wearing masks for protection, keeping people 6 feet (min) apart at check out, having aisles go only one way. They have early hours only for elderly.
I don't see any way with the lack of goods in some products, and limits on purchasing other products, that going to the grocery store once every two weeks is realistic for families.
There was no rice in our super market last week, no flour, limited frozen goods, almost no canned goods, and obviously no disinfectant cleaning supplies or paper goods.
Come on MAB, you know that's a false choice.
Imagine someone saying "The Giants lost 36 games over the last three seasons, partly due to bad office management" and then having someone dismiss that criticism because there didn't exist a solution where the Giants went 48-0.
In truth three things are true.
And finally of course one needs to discern and apportion consequences for one elite or group of elites being further down the spectrum of our interests. Of course one needs make judgements at the electoral level for we all know that we are better off choosing the recent lesser of two acting troupes.
take care
While you are here I wanted to get your thoughts on some things kicker posted. He is optimistic that there will be a groundswell of support to rebuild the economy in a way that will benefit the people instead of the elites. Do you see that happening?
I for one worry about prices becoming dirt cheap and the only people that are in position to buy things will be the wealthy. Small businesses out, corporations in, since they really are the only ones that can withstand long term, and really take advantage of these handouts. Do you see the elites rebuilding afterwards in a way that will better for society overall? Will they have a choice?
The scenario in the US is so bad that despite being magnitudes times the size of Italy and spain, the US has less deaths with a 3rd more cases.
Focus shouldn't be on blame for a WORLDWIDE pandemic - it should be on getting the right process in place for the next one.
Yep. We are 6x the size of Italy and 8x the size of Spain. Compared to most (not all), but most, country's we are doing well
It’s at best an educated guess. We will learn from this, in the meantime now is not the time to point fingers - it about getting out of this.
I’m also - I mean as fmic said, this is a global pandemic - but why aren’t we this up in arms about 650k heart disease deaths per year? Isn’t there more the Federal government can do? Maybe force companies to stop everything they’re doing and mandate they come up with a cure!
Finally, it cannot be understated the economic devastation this shutdown is having. It’s not as simple as ‘we should have shut down and prepared in January’. Suicides, lives ruined .... there are no good options.
But blame away — when things don’t go our way in our comfortable lives, that’s what people do
It’s at best an educated guess. We will learn from this, in the meantime now is not the time to point fingers - it about getting out of this.
I’m also - I mean as fmic said, this is a global pandemic - but why aren’t we this up in arms about 650k heart disease deaths per year? Isn’t there more the Federal government can do? Maybe force companies to stop everything they’re doing and mandate they come up with a cure!
Finally, it cannot be understated the economic devastation this shutdown is having. It’s not as simple as ‘we should have shut down and prepared in January’. Suicides, lives ruined .... there are no good options.
But blame away — when things don’t go our way in our comfortable lives, that’s what people do
People keep talking about suicides, but is there any evidence that this is actually happening. Links, sources, anything?
Doing this silly what-aboutism with other diseases as some kind of justification to poo-poo the deaths is warped
Doing this silly what-aboutism with other diseases as some kind of justification to poo-poo the deaths is warped
This is for MaB
The US mortality rate has crept up over 3% of confirmed cases. While I do not expect the US mortality rate to equal that of Italy or Spain. I think we are two weeks behind those countries in deaths resulting from a positive diagnosis. I expect the US will see a death rate of 4% or more on confirmed cases.
I went out a little while ago to actually get a Covid test and I was shocked at the number of cars on the road. Close to what you would expect on a typical day here in Annapolis. My fear is that there has been so much focus on NY and now that they appear to be peaking...people will not be as careful in other parts of the country.
Quote:
And there’s no clear cut model to know ‘if we’d taken such and such course instead ... Deaths would be 6k not 10k’
It’s at best an educated guess. We will learn from this, in the meantime now is not the time to point fingers - it about getting out of this.
I’m also - I mean as fmic said, this is a global pandemic - but why aren’t we this up in arms about 650k heart disease deaths per year? Isn’t there more the Federal government can do? Maybe force companies to stop everything they’re doing and mandate they come up with a cure!
Finally, it cannot be understated the economic devastation this shutdown is having. It’s not as simple as ‘we should have shut down and prepared in January’. Suicides, lives ruined .... there are no good options.
But blame away — when things don’t go our way in our comfortable lives, that’s what people do
People keep talking about suicides, but is there any evidence that this is actually happening. Links, sources, anything?
stats take a long time to come out, but almost every expert expects a rise due to both the virus directly and the indirect effects that are financial or other.
Below is one link to the LA Times story about the suicide hotline call spikes (assumed directly due to COVID-19)
and here is a blog post titled "COVID-19 Is Likely to Lead to an Increase in Suicides The psychosocial repercussions of this crisis could make the tragedy even worse"
from the Scientific American https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/covid-19-is-likely-to-lead-to-an-increase-in-suicides/
link - ( New Window )
The scenario in the US is so bad that despite being magnitudes times the size of Italy and spain, the US has less deaths with a 3rd more cases.
Focus shouldn't be on blame for a WORLDWIDE pandemic - it should be on getting the right process in place for the next one.
Come on. It’s been a massive failure in the US. We had our first reported case on the same day as South Korea. They handled the situation well and limited death toll and cases. We are mired in a major crisis. Poor leadership. Too many blunders to mention (covered on this thread). Not to mention the initial public response, which encouraged irresponsible behavior.
Many on here were taking the administration’s cues and downplaying the virus. Calling it the flu or something less. I can’t get over how irresponsible and, frankly, stupid that was.
I’m very disappointed in how we responded to this. You want to lower the bar and give people credit for pooping their pants instead of the floor, fine. There are examples out there of how this should have been handled - or could have been handled much better.
My dad always used to say: “don’t compare yourself to those behind you - compare yourself to those ahead of you.”
Quote:
3X the number of cases of Spain and Italy
The US mortality rate has crept up over 3% of confirmed cases. While I do not expect the US mortality rate to equal that of Italy or Spain. I think we are two weeks behind those countries in deaths resulting from a positive diagnosis. I expect the US will see a death rate of 4% or more on confirmed cases.
I went out a little while ago to actually get a Covid test and I was shocked at the number of cars on the road. Close to what you would expect on a typical day here in Annapolis. My fear is that there has been so much focus on NY and now that they appear to be peaking...people will not be as careful in other parts of the country.
When no country has the faintest clue how many people have been exposed, infected, developed immunity .... it’s an utterly meaningless statistic.
Basically every country reporting a bunch of people who ended up having bad symptoms and went through the trouble (and in a lot cases risk to go to highly exposed testing centers) - and out of that very small sample size, % of those died. It’s just not an accurate representation of what’s going on.
Montanagiant - I hear you, and I get that we are all scared of the unknown ... but comparing this - disease- to other diseases is a hell of a lot more reasonable than comparing this to 9/11
Quote:
And there’s no clear cut model to know ‘if we’d taken such and such course instead ... Deaths would be 6k not 10k’
It’s at best an educated guess. We will learn from this, in the meantime now is not the time to point fingers - it about getting out of this.
I’m also - I mean as fmic said, this is a global pandemic - but why aren’t we this up in arms about 650k heart disease deaths per year? Isn’t there more the Federal government can do? Maybe force companies to stop everything they’re doing and mandate they come up with a cure!
Finally, it cannot be understated the economic devastation this shutdown is having. It’s not as simple as ‘we should have shut down and prepared in January’. Suicides, lives ruined .... there are no good options.
But blame away — when things don’t go our way in our comfortable lives, that’s what people do
People keep talking about suicides, but is there any evidence that this is actually happening. Links, sources, anything?
What evidence are you requesting? Suicides not even 3 weeks into this with unemployment beginning to spike less than 15 days ago?
How about just looking at suicide rates during past depressions and severe recessions instead of being lazy?
We can pick and choose countries all we want. The evaluation is what the United States do and when, relative to its capabilities, based on what the United States knew, and when it knew it.
--------------------------
Yes, getting out of this mess is the number 1 priority. But the idea of "who cares what happened in the past" doesn't jibe with the notion that the efforts underway are still incredibly lackluster.
Quote:
In comment 14861602 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
And there’s no clear cut model to know ‘if we’d taken such and such course instead ... Deaths would be 6k not 10k’
It’s at best an educated guess. We will learn from this, in the meantime now is not the time to point fingers - it about getting out of this.
I’m also - I mean as fmic said, this is a global pandemic - but why aren’t we this up in arms about 650k heart disease deaths per year? Isn’t there more the Federal government can do? Maybe force companies to stop everything they’re doing and mandate they come up with a cure!
Finally, it cannot be understated the economic devastation this shutdown is having. It’s not as simple as ‘we should have shut down and prepared in January’. Suicides, lives ruined .... there are no good options.
But blame away — when things don’t go our way in our comfortable lives, that’s what people do
People keep talking about suicides, but is there any evidence that this is actually happening. Links, sources, anything?
What evidence are you requesting? Suicides not even 3 weeks into this with unemployment beginning to spike less than 15 days ago?
How about just looking at suicide rates during past depressions and severe recessions instead of being lazy?
You like to throw things out with no supporting evidence. It's your job to support it with actual facts or just about anything. I found an article talking about hotlines getting busier, but none about actual suicides. I'm not being lazy, just support your claims with you know evidence?
Mets sucks and will continue to do so!
Quote:
3X the number of cases of Spain and Italy
The US mortality rate has crept up over 3% of confirmed cases. While I do not expect the US mortality rate to equal that of Italy or Spain. I think we are two weeks behind those countries in deaths resulting from a positive diagnosis. I expect the US will see a death rate of 4% or more on confirmed cases.
I went out a little while ago to actually get a Covid test and I was shocked at the number of cars on the road. Close to what you would expect on a typical day here in Annapolis. My fear is that there has been so much focus on NY and now that they appear to be peaking...people will not be as careful in other parts of the country.
I see it in my small town in the upper mid-west. Go to the convenience store and there is no 6' separation, no disinfecting stations, no one wearing masks. There are cases all around us in other counties but when it hits here it will be bad
It’s at best an educated guess. We will learn from this, in the meantime now is not the time to point fingers - it about getting out of this.
I’m also - I mean as fmic said, this is a global pandemic - but why aren’t we this up in arms about 650k heart disease deaths per year? Isn’t there more the Federal government can do? Maybe force companies to stop everything they’re doing and mandate they come up with a cure!
Finally, it cannot be understated the economic devastation this shutdown is having. It’s not as simple as ‘we should have shut down and prepared in January’. Suicides, lives ruined .... there are no good options.
But blame away — when things don’t go our way in our comfortable lives, that’s what people do
People are actually up in arms about heart disease and other ailments. They actually have things like the Ameican Heart Association. And people bitch and complain about what we are putting in our bodies all the time from producers.
This virus just happens to be in the forefront right now.
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imagine a person complain a team didn't go undefeated when they went 10-6 and only should have gone 7-9.
The scenario in the US is so bad that despite being magnitudes times the size of Italy and spain, the US has less deaths with a 3rd more cases.
Focus shouldn't be on blame for a WORLDWIDE pandemic - it should be on getting the right process in place for the next one.
Come on. It’s been a massive failure in the US. We had our first reported case on the same day as South Korea. They handled the situation well and limited death toll and cases. We are mired in a major crisis. Poor leadership. Too many blunders to mention (covered on this thread). Not to mention the initial public response, which encouraged irresponsible behavior.
Many on here were taking the administration’s cues and downplaying the virus. Calling it the flu or something less. I can’t get over how irresponsible and, frankly, stupid that was.
I’m very disappointed in how we responded to this. You want to lower the bar and give people credit for pooping their pants instead of the floor, fine. There are examples out there of how this should have been handled - or could have been handled much better.
My dad always used to say: “don’t compare yourself to those behind you - compare yourself to those ahead of you.”
One country in the world had a flatline (if you trust their reporting) and all anyone wants to do is say "you suck, you shit your pants" because you're not South Korea.
South Korea has so many difference from the US it's a silly, lazy comparison. South Korea is geographically about the size of Kentucky with the population of California crammed in. They have controllable borders and a far different culture than we do. South Korea used mandatory (though they say it isn't mandatory) GPS monitoring to track people infected, suspected people infected, and people who may have come in contact with those people. They tracked where those people went, their credit card transactions, commutes, etc. We have a constitution where even something some may say is "for the greater good" wouldn't supersede people's rights to privacy.
It's unlikely or unrealistic to expect a response similar to South Korea.
the one country who had a flat line.
If you want a better comparison add all of western Europe together and that is a more representative sample of a federation of states than a single homogeneous country.
and it's still stupid to do (at this time).
At some point, a look back makes a lot of sense so protocols and SOPs can be created or changed, but now you're taking your dad's advice too literally IMO.
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And there’s no clear cut model to know ‘if we’d taken such and such course instead ... Deaths would be 6k not 10k’
It’s at best an educated guess. We will learn from this, in the meantime now is not the time to point fingers - it about getting out of this.
I’m also - I mean as fmic said, this is a global pandemic - but why aren’t we this up in arms about 650k heart disease deaths per year? Isn’t there more the Federal government can do? Maybe force companies to stop everything they’re doing and mandate they come up with a cure!
Finally, it cannot be understated the economic devastation this shutdown is having. It’s not as simple as ‘we should have shut down and prepared in January’. Suicides, lives ruined .... there are no good options.
But blame away — when things don’t go our way in our comfortable lives, that’s what people do
People are actually up in arms about heart disease and other ailments. They actually have things like the Ameican Heart Association. And people bitch and complain about what we are putting in our bodies all the time from producers.
This virus just happens to be in the forefront right now.
Last time I checked you can't get heart disease by being around other people who have heart disease.
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In comment 14861571 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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3X the number of cases of Spain and Italy
The US mortality rate has crept up over 3% of confirmed cases. While I do not expect the US mortality rate to equal that of Italy or Spain. I think we are two weeks behind those countries in deaths resulting from a positive diagnosis. I expect the US will see a death rate of 4% or more on confirmed cases.
I went out a little while ago to actually get a Covid test and I was shocked at the number of cars on the road. Close to what you would expect on a typical day here in Annapolis. My fear is that there has been so much focus on NY and now that they appear to be peaking...people will not be as careful in other parts of the country.
When no country has the faintest clue how many people have been exposed, infected, developed immunity .... it’s an utterly meaningless statistic.
Basically every country reporting a bunch of people who ended up having bad symptoms and went through the trouble (and in a lot cases risk to go to highly exposed testing centers) - and out of that very small sample size, % of those died. It’s just not an accurate representation of what’s going on.
Montanagiant - I hear you, and I get that we are all scared of the unknown ... but comparing this - disease- to other diseases is a hell of a lot more reaable than comparing this to 9/11
Mets, I agree that it is difficult to compare countries, but it's the only basis we have for comparison. I think there is enough decent data out there to make reasonable deductions.
That's not what he said lol
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In comment 14861569 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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imagine a person complain a team didn't go undefeated when they went 10-6 and only should have gone 7-9.
The scenario in the US is so bad that despite being magnitudes times the size of Italy and spain, the US has less deaths with a 3rd more cases.
Focus shouldn't be on blame for a WORLDWIDE pandemic - it should be on getting the right process in place for the next one.
Come on. It’s been a massive failure in the US. We had our first reported case on the same day as South Korea. They handled the situation well and limited death toll and cases. We are mired in a major crisis. Poor leadership. Too many blunders to mention (covered on this thread). Not to mention the initial public response, which encouraged irresponsible behavior.
Many on here were taking the administration’s cues and downplaying the virus. Calling it the flu or something less. I can’t get over how irresponsible and, frankly, stupid that was.
I’m very disappointed in how we responded to this. You want to lower the bar and give people credit for pooping their pants instead of the floor, fine. There are examples out there of how this should have been handled - or could have been handled much better.
My dad always used to say: “don’t compare yourself to those behind you - compare yourself to those ahead of you.”
One country in the world had a flatline (if you trust their reporting) and all anyone wants to do is say "you suck, you shit your pants" because you're not South Korea.
South Korea has so many difference from the US it's a silly, lazy comparison. South Korea is geographically about the size of Kentucky with the population of California crammed in. They have controllable borders and a far different culture than we do. South Korea used mandatory (though they say it isn't mandatory) GPS monitoring to track people infected, suspected people infected, and people who may have come in contact with those people. They tracked where those people went, their credit card transactions, commutes, etc. We have a constitution where even something some may say is "for the greater good" wouldn't supersede people's rights to privacy.
It's unlikely or unrealistic to expect a response similar to South Korea.
the one country who had a flat line.
If you want a better comparison add all of western Europe together and that is a more representative sample of a federation of states than a single homogeneous country.
and it's still stupid to do (at this time).
At some point, a look back makes a lot of sense so protocols and SOPs can be created or changed, but now you're taking your dad's advice too literally IMO.
It's not stupid to do. It's the only data you have to make any sort of comparison or forecast. You should take it with a BIG grain of salt, but it should not be tossed out.
It's not stupid if your goal is to say what did they do, that we may be able to use in the event of another viral emergency or pandemic (since you 100% know there will be a next one).
Just my opinion, people are free to do what they want, only some things people are choosing to do is both unproductive and divisive.
Montanagiant - I hear you, and I get that we are all scared of the unknown ... but comparing this - disease- to other diseases is a hell of a lot more reasonable than comparing this to 9/11
Not looking to get into a back and forth but curious as to what your rationale is for this.
Most other diseases being compared are known, have proven therapies, billions of research pumped in, treatments, and in the cases of our leading causes of death are not contagious to others (heart disease, cancer, alzheimers, diabetes, etc). All are serious public health problems, but very fundamentally different than this present threat.
Of course 9/11 is a completely different category of disaster, as are hurricanes, but those types of limited warning /massively disruptive events seem more analogous to what we are currently going through than problems that have been known and somewhat constant for long periods of time. If the number of heart attacks in the country was doubling every few days as a result of being contagious via close contact I'd imagine we would see a similarly urgent response.
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In comment 14861602 MetsAreBack said:
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And there’s no clear cut model to know ‘if we’d taken such and such course instead ... Deaths would be 6k not 10k’
It’s at best an educated guess. We will learn from this, in the meantime now is not the time to point fingers - it about getting out of this.
I’m also - I mean as fmic said, this is a global pandemic - but why aren’t we this up in arms about 650k heart disease deaths per year? Isn’t there more the Federal government can do? Maybe force companies to stop everything they’re doing and mandate they come up with a cure!
Finally, it cannot be understated the economic devastation this shutdown is having. It’s not as simple as ‘we should have shut down and prepared in January’. Suicides, lives ruined .... there are no good options.
But blame away — when things don’t go our way in our comfortable lives, that’s what people do
People are actually up in arms about heart disease and other ailments. They actually have things like the Ameican Heart Association. And people bitch and complain about what we are putting in our bodies all the time from producers.
This virus just happens to be in the forefront right now.
Last time I checked you can't get heart disease by being around other people who have heart disease.
Nope...you can't. You can only get it by being stupid, lazy, and treating your body like a waste chemical dump. But hey...freewill! Don't take my smokes and fat ladened food from me...just make sure you can treat me or it's YOUR FUCKING FAULT I DIE! Amirite?
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imagine a person complain a team didn't go undefeated when they went 10-6 and only should have gone 7-9.
The scenario in the US is so bad that despite being magnitudes times the size of Italy and spain, the US has less deaths with a 3rd more cases.
Focus shouldn't be on blame for a WORLDWIDE pandemic - it should be on getting the right process in place for the next one.
Come on. It’s been a massive failure in the US. We had our first reported case on the same day as South Korea. They handled the situation well and limited death toll and cases. We are mired in a major crisis. Poor leadership. Too many blunders to mention (covered on this thread). Not to mention the initial public response, which encouraged irresponsible behavior.
Many on here were taking the administration’s cues and downplaying the virus. Calling it the flu or something less. I can’t get over how irresponsible and, frankly, stupid that was.
I’m very disappointed in how we responded to this. You want to lower the bar and give people credit for pooping their pants instead of the floor, fine. There are examples out there of how this should have been handled - or could have been handled much better.
My dad always used to say: “don’t compare yourself to those behind you - compare yourself to those ahead of you.”
A massive failure?? This could have been handled better. Yet, the numbers will likely show we still were one of the better countries at minimizing the impact.
When you look back at some of the earlier posts and threads talking about millions of people dying, including a couple posters who said a million in the US would be the bare minimum of deaths, and we are under 12,000, that's not a massive failure.
But like I said above - the goal should be to put a process in place for the future - not point fingers right now.
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In comment 14861569 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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imagine a person complain a team didn't go undefeated when they went 10-6 and only should have gone 7-9.
The scenario in the US is so bad that despite being magnitudes times the size of Italy and spain, the US has less deaths with a 3rd more cases.
Focus shouldn't be on blame for a WORLDWIDE pandemic - it should be on getting the right process in place for the next one.
Come on. It’s been a massive failure in the US. We had our first reported case on the same day as South Korea. They handled the situation well and limited death toll and cases. We are mired in a major crisis. Poor leadership. Too many blunders to mention (covered on this thread). Not to mention the initial public response, which encouraged irresponsible behavior.
Many on here were taking the administration’s cues and downplaying the virus. Calling it the flu or something less. I can’t get over how irresponsible and, frankly, stupid that was.
I’m very disappointed in how we responded to this. You want to lower the bar and give people credit for pooping their pants instead of the floor, fine. There are examples out there of how this should have been handled - or could have been handled much better.
My dad always used to say: “don’t compare yourself to those behind you - compare yourself to those ahead of you.”
A massive failure?? This could have been handled better. Yet, the numbers will likely show we still were one of the better countries at minimizing the impact.
When you look back at some of the earlier posts and threads talking about millions of people dying, including a couple posters who said a million in the US would be the bare minimum of deaths, and we are under 12,000, that's not a massive failure.
But like I said above - the goal should be to put a process in place for the future - not point fingers right now.
Many of the people decrying the pointing of fingers, not you, would be licking their chops to point fingers in another timeframe and you know it.
It's not stupid if your goal is to say what did they do, that we may be able to use in the event of another viral emergency or pandemic (since you 100% know there will be a next one).
Just my opinion, people are free to do what they want, only some things people are choosing to do is both unproductive and divisive.
I did not say or infer that at all. Any data you can get to study what did or did not work is helpful. You will be able to look at responses of individual states as well to see what worked or did not work.
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to do if your point is to say "our leadership shit their pants" because one other country didn't suffer the same way.
It's not stupid if your goal is to say what did they do, that we may be able to use in the event of another viral emergency or pandemic (since you 100% know there will be a next one).
Just my opinion, people are free to do what they want, only some things people are choosing to do is both unproductive and divisive.
I did not say or infer that at all. Any data you can get to study what did or did not work is helpful. You will be able to look at responses of individual states as well to see what worked or did not work.
Sorry my reply was meant for TD.
Some people can grasp the concept of social distancing. Far too many can't. The simple notion of wrapping a scarf around one's face to slow the spread might as well be quantum mechanics.
Just got back from the store, and it's no better now than it was 3 weeks ago.
Forget about political leadership. Too many people are idiots.
It's not stupid if your goal is to say what did they do, that we may be able to use in the event of another viral emergency or pandemic (since you 100% know there will be a next one).
Just my opinion, people are free to do what they want, only some things people are choosing to do is both unproductive and divisive.
I think the disagreement is that many (myself included) think those problems persist.
It's not a matter of me thinking that the leadership shit its pants but there's no use in talking about that now but rather at a later juncture as preventive measures for the next one.
It's a matter of me (and others) thinking that the leadership is continuing to shit into its soiled pants and it is causing more harm.
I'd be calling out those posters if things were flipped. To me, certain events shouldn't be politicized. Natural Disasters and Pandemics for certain.
Think about the dialog that took place during Hurricanes like Katrina and Sandy.
This is the time to put aside politics - since it isn't a Gov't that is going to make people sick or die.
I mentioned earlier in this thread they put her on the drug combo when she got in the hospital and it completely turned her around.
Our population is 3.3 times that of Spain and Italy combined so if we have 3x the cases of both those countries combined without hitting an apex like those countries have then we will have more cases per capita than Spain/Italy combined
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to do if your point is to say "our leadership shit their pants" because one other country didn't suffer the same way.
It's not stupid if your goal is to say what did they do, that we may be able to use in the event of another viral emergency or pandemic (since you 100% know there will be a next one).
Just my opinion, people are free to do what they want, only some things people are choosing to do is both unproductive and divisive.
I think the disagreement is that many (myself included) think those problems persist.
It's not a matter of me thinking that the leadership shit its pants but there's no use in talking about that now but rather at a later juncture as preventive measures for the next one.
It's a matter of me (and others) thinking that the leadership is continuing to shit into its soiled pants and it is causing more harm.
the same guy is making the decisions from a science standpoint now that made the decisions during the H1N1 pandemic and SARS and Ebola, etc. Fauci has been in his role at NIAID since 1984.
Fauci has said NONE of his recommendations has been rejected.
Same with Dr. Birx.
The rest is all second guessing, backtracking on people's own original opinions, and politics. It's all noise. This was going to kill people. once you start getting into conjecture and guess work about what fatalities would have looked like if different actions had been taken you are not dealing in fact.
You are about as relevant as the question "how many dead are acceptable?"
Some people can grasp the concept of social distancing. Far too many can't. The simple notion of wrapping a scarf around one's face to slow the spread might as well be quantum mechanics.
Just got back from the store, and it's no better now than it was 3 weeks ago.
Forget about political leadership. Too many people are idiots.
Spot on. I won't get into specifics but I work in a field that should be know very well the effects of this virus. However at a recent zoom meeting a senior member was mocking the idea of wearing a mask...
I mentioned earlier in this thread they put her on the drug combo when she got in the hospital and it completely turned her around.
Great news! This is part of the hopes that I have to get us towards an exit strategy for this. Let the doctors do their job to find the right drug combination and dosages for each situation. Ramp up testing to find out who has the disease, and more importantly, who has already built up the anti-bodies for it. Plan a way to open up the world again slowly, and reintroduce people who have the anti-bodies already so they aren't a threat to spread the disease. And buy time until a vaccine is developed.
Now, the testing part and how we will indicate who can go out and who can't, I'm sure is going to be very difficult from a legal/civil rights/ logisitcal standpoint, but I'm not sure I see any other way in the near term to make it work.
Murphy has been horrid, give you know facts and has no presentation skills. Today he says everything is going down but i am extending the stay at home order 30 days and i want to do it longer, like why cant you go every 2 weeks? why put more fear into people?..
Also anyone else see his tweet? He called peoplr jackasses and said he wont take down the order to stay at home until everyone listens to him
Saying or lending credence to the argument that it's a disease there is nothing you can do is actually bizarre imo.
I agree there is nothing you can do about who gets hit badly.
Let me ask a question to provoke thoughts. If there was nothing that could be done why are so many very engaged in trying to show ( getting the message right for this news cycle) they are affecting the outcomes???
Why not meet them on the field they choose? If we picnic with them or chose to challenge or get more solid information...its a democracy...we are supposed to do that. What doesnt get asked gets ignored. In every human endeavor for 4000 years.
Murphy has been horrid, give you know facts and has no presentation skills. Today he says everything is going down but i am extending the stay at home order 30 days and i want to do it longer, like why cant you go every 2 weeks? why put more fear into people?..
Also anyone else see his tweet? He called peoplr jackasses and said he wont take down the order to stay at home until everyone listens to him
I agree with both of those. Throw in Tom Wolf in PA as another doing a good job. He had many counties in PA, mine included, locked down since the 2nd week of March.
I mentioned earlier in this thread they put her on the drug combo when she got in the hospital and it completely turned her around.
Good to hear! Best wishes to her.
Murphy has been horrid, give you know facts and has no presentation skills. Today he says everything is going down but i am extending the stay at home order 30 days and i want to do it longer, like why cant you go every 2 weeks? why put more fear into people?..
Also anyone else see his tweet? He called peoplr jackasses and said he wont take down the order to stay at home until everyone listens to him
As a lifelong NJ resident, sometimes you need to start any conversation with a New Jerseyian with the preface "Hey asshole.." and then say what you need to convey. I think Murphy is frustrated with the response of the state as a whole. I think the Northern part (Bergen county area) has taken it pretty seriously, as you would expect since most of us are NYC commuters and essentially are an extension of what is going on in NYC.
Now, I still see people out in groups walking, not really social distancing well. They had to close the parks because people weren't following the rules.
But I agree that Cuomo has been the most clear and concise in saying what has to be done. Murphy takes his lead from Cuomo. But I'm excited if we can get this antibody test ramped up, because without it, there is no end in sight for this.
I mentioned earlier in this thread they put her on the drug combo when she got in the hospital and it completely turned her around.
That's fantastic news
Murphy has been horrid, give you know facts and has no presentation skills. Today he says everything is going down but i am extending the stay at home order 30 days and i want to do it longer, like why cant you go every 2 weeks? why put more fear into people?..
Also anyone else see his tweet? He called peoplr jackasses and said he wont take down the order to stay at home until everyone listens to him
He signed a 30 day extension of the Public Health Emergency declaration. Not the "stay at home" order (yet).
Saying or lending credence to the argument that it's a disease there is nothing you can do is actually bizarre imo.
I agree there is nothing you can do about who gets hit badly.
Let me ask a question to provoke thoughts. If there was nothing that could be done why are so many very engaged in trying to show ( getting the message right for this news cycle) they are affecting the outcomes???
Why not meet them on the field they choose? If we picnic with them or chose to challenge or get more solid information...its a democracy...we are supposed to do that. What doesnt get asked gets ignored. In every human endeavor for 4000 years.
Did I say it's a disease, there is nothing you can do?
If so, not my intent.
My point was there was going to be a death toll - I believe what I said was people were going to die. I believe the people in power, all levels, gathered information, made decisions (and comments) based on what they believed to be true at the time. Maybe I'm naive but that's what I believe.
Some people do deserve immediate criticism like the two people in power who just learned days ago that the disease could be spread by asymptomatic people. that's inexcusable at this point.
But I do believe by and large the commentary, measures and guidelines taken were thought out and intentional and based on the reality at the time, and as reality changed, so did the commentary and the actions.
I don't think looking back and saying "shoulda woulda coulda" is helpful.
I also don't think saying "....but South Korea" is particularly meaningful either. I think there are many differences and I have explained in my opinion how those differences relate to and enable different actions and responses.
I take issue with those taking a victory lap because someone was wrong, seemingly celebrating the loss of American life because it makes people look bad.
I would feel the same regardless of who it is because I'm a human being who is not a psychopath.
I do believe we should have a debrief, at every step, to productively see what worked and what didn't and take advantage of those learnings going forward, but just like in business I find the people out to finger point and blame and dwell on "how did we get here", are often easily beaten out by those looking forward with an eye on how do we improve.
Anyway, just my opinions here, and everyone is entitled to theirs.
Lastly, I think the one failure that should be highlighted is the lack of preparedness in terms of PPE, vents, contingency plans for hospital beds and ICU's and that as has been shown many times spans multiple years (every year since 2010 the CDC and FEMA recommended replenishing the national stockpile that was depleted by 75% and it was never done and people should answer for that). And it's not just Federal, states have a role in that too.
In my time public affairs in oil, I had the pleasure of working for a really astute GM, and during that time we addressed some really impactful crisis response, systems failures, reaction planning.
Two lessons I'll never forget. 1) The quality of communication is a leader indicator of credibility 2) Root cause analysis is about blame, in the moment analysis is about success.
Just some wax to pile on the point, are we doing the best we can is pretty good measuring stick when the stakes are high.
Cuomo working woth companies who can make the anti body test to help them build them for scale would be huge
Cuomo working woth companies who can make the anti body test to help them build them for scale would be huge
I saw an article today projecting deaths to hit $82k by August 1 which is better than originally thought.....BUT, that assumes the same social distancing through July.
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Many of the people decrying the pointing of fingers, not you, would be licking their chops to point fingers in another timeframe and you know it.
I'd be calling out those posters if things were flipped. To me, certain events shouldn't be politicized. Natural Disasters and Pandemics for certain.
Think about the dialog that took place during Hurricanes like Katrina and Sandy.
This is the time to put aside politics - since it isn't a Gov't that is going to make people sick or die.
I agree with you, too bad out "leaders" do not adapt this approach.
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I agree that some posters will point fingers just by the aisle they stand with:
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Many of the people decrying the pointing of fingers, not you, would be licking their chops to point fingers in another timeframe and you know it.
I'd be calling out those posters if things were flipped. To me, certain events shouldn't be politicized. Natural Disasters and Pandemics for certain.
Think about the dialog that took place during Hurricanes like Katrina and Sandy.
This is the time to put aside politics - since it isn't a Gov't that is going to make people sick or die.
I agree with you, too bad out "leaders" do not adapt this approach.
Both sides are posturing is what I meant, regarding their approach to have a collective front.
I think it's similarly fair to be critical of anyone who was receiving briefings in late Jan/Feb and downplaying the threat (especially those also simultaneously buying/selling stock, but that's another issue altogether).
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i would expect the daily death numbers hopefully start reflecting that in thr coming days..hopefully..
Cuomo working woth companies who can make the anti body test to help them build them for scale would be huge
I saw an article today projecting deaths to hit $82k by August 1 which is better than originally thought.....BUT, that assumes the same social distancing through July.
I read something yesterday and cuomo said this with cautious optimism that the current track is 50% less than their original models..
that is of course if we continue to plateu and start the downward slope..
If so, not my intent. I could have picked this up from other posts
My point was there was going to be a death toll - I believe what I said was people were going to die. I believe the people in power, all levels, gathered information, made decisions (and comments) based on what they believed to be true at the time. Maybe I'm naive but that's what I believe.
You and I completely disagree. Witness the news as of this afternoon...
When faced with an unknown back in December or very early December all who we pay should have begun to seek out knowledge and expertise and started to scenario plan. Spending time with old friends, guys working the system for favors, emoting and plotting how to spin is not where you would advise any of your clients to do. Period. Full Stop. No citizen with a conscience would have.
Some people do deserve immediate criticism like the two people in power who just learned days ago that the disease could be spread by asymptomatic people. that's inexcusable at this point.
But I do believe by and large the commentary, measures and guidelines taken were thought out and intentional and based on the reality at the time, and as reality changed, so did the commentary and the actions.
I think most reasonable takes of the actions and timelines and talking points from all 50 governors and many institutions and leaders (of both parties) in Washington would overwhelmingly refute this opinion.
I don't think looking back and saying "shoulda woulda coulda" is helpful.
IF the same people, manner of thinking, belief systems and influences are in place questioning this is why we prefer a democracy. If you serve ( and that is the nature of all....all these positions) you get questioned. That's the deal.
I also don't think saying "....but South Korea" is particularly meaningful either. I think there are many differences and I have explained in my opinion how those differences relate to and enable different actions and responses. We completely agree.
I take issue with those taking a victory lap because someone was wrong, seemingly celebrating the loss of American life because it makes people look bad. Ok...whose taking a victory lap? who is most taking a victory lap? All energy spent on scoring points, blaming or taking credit is not leadership at this time. And as you know once you start a cycle or jump in you invite critique and then double down on the game and not the nation.
I would feel the same regardless of who it is because I'm a human being who is not a psychopath. I never thought you were. Never occurred to me. This is a tape you need to listen to.
I do believe we should have a debrief, at every step, to productively see what worked and what didn't and take advantage of those learnings going forward, but just like in business I find the people out to finger point and blame and dwell on "how did we get here", are often easily beaten out by those looking forward with an eye on how do we improve. We agree so I don't see how it does not evenly apply
Anyway, just my opinions here, and everyone is entitled to theirs. Agree of course.
Lastly, I think the one failure that should be highlighted is the lack of preparedness in terms of PPE, vents, contingency plans for hospital beds and ICU's and that as has been shown many times spans multiple years (every year since 2010 the CDC and FEMA recommended replenishing the national stockpile that was depleted by 75% and it was never done and people should answer for that). And it's not just Federal, states have a role in that too. A lot of it is states imo. The gamesmanship after failing at this at all levels is not serving and for me it is not convincing that any eyes are on just getting the job done as opposed to positioning it for consumption,[/quote].
We shouldn't spend more time on this. We each get a vote down the line and we don't need to discuss it.
But we do need to notice the systemic reliance on semantic wars instead of rising above ones past selves when times call for it.
The question remains, as citizens who pay these people...did you do your best? Have you self corrected the suboptimal thought patterns of 90/60/30 days ago so we can feel the future is steered as best it can...or are we stuck on stupid?
All good to have different opinions. Take care
I think it's similarly fair to be critical of anyone who was receiving briefings in late Jan/Feb and downplaying the threat (especially those also simultaneously buying/selling stock, but that's another issue altogether).
It's not hard to find them if you look, it's not outlandish at all.
Most are political though, so I'm not going to share and I'm not going to do your google searching either.
today, based on the current reality, the people who create models (the ones decisions I assume are based on) have revised most models (across the board, infections, hospitalizations, ICU and fatalities) and assumptions down from what they were which was down from what the originals were.
10 days ago we read 200,000 was best case, now we read 80,000.
Is that doing their best?
How do you know?
After all, its easier than actually thinking.
Lastly, the idea that people reacted at the time is a pointless criteria given the forward momentum of the germ theory of disease most of us had to learn in the 10th grade.
By definition the problem relies on projection that what you know today is not what tomorrow or next week or next month will look like.
If that's your standard of leadership performance under non static and in fact momentum building conditions ( that they continually reacted afterwards) we disagree on this point as well.
We are not going to solve these disagreements but you are a frequent contributor so imo you deserve challenges that you may or may not consider as you continually refine thoughts ( as we all should)
Thanks for the discussion. Take care
In chaos, models are belief systems until assumptions and like to like data stabilizes.
You prepare for the worst and resist the hopa hopa, the hail mary magic bullets and the hockey stick projections that find their way into every powerpoint since the dawn of time for a simple reason: Its the surest way to lose credibility when you will need it later.
or based on the importance of the area and the known size of all troops in France we should prepare for 500,000 defenders. If we are off high we win. If we are off low we lose from the get go
Which to choose? Which to choose?
There is no one celebrating this crisis on here (just an absurd claim to make). And except for a kook here or there who is obviously mentally ill, it's not being celebrated by anyone in the real world.
Sorry, to be clear, I'm not talking about on here, I'm talking media and public personalities.
The data scientists on this thread would be better qualified to evaluate this model than I am. There's a full paper that lost me on page 4 with this:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
not trying to play any sort of gotcha game, just pointing out that there has been plenty of seemingly solid information in the public domain - Birx cited this model multiple times - that has tracked somewhat accurately (I'm not an expert in stats but it certainly seems to have predicted the peak in NY pretty accurately).
We will need to look at similar solutions in times when these pandemics are likely to increase. Funding for senior care across multiple countries is not a priority and in some cases is decreasing as other costs rise. If we value our seniors, much as we do our vets, then we need a realignment and soon. The accumulated deaths in our nursing home is to me a tragedy that is entirely unacceptable and requires a major new focus.
Distancing, availability of testing kits, rooms designed so that one infection does not become a pandemic in and of itself, daily testing both to identify those positive and those with immunity in pandemics such as these will prevent overwhelming deaths. There are many issues to address but I thought I would quote from a source I trust.
Doctors without borders suggested 3 caveats of great importance in these times. The first was to have dedicated hospitals for the pandemic i.e. do not mix non covid with covid thus helping decrease spread. Secondly, adequate munitions so that we are not at the mercy of companies or countries holding us hostage while people die. Thirdly, adequate psychological resources to help frontline workers during these crises. As someone who has been at the front line, I certainy understand the last point very well.
We must do more and not finger point but be ready to move quickly to prevent future pandemics. All of us have an obligation to do better and includes bringing up this issue to every level of government. We can do better and we must do better, the status quo is dysfunctional and the emperor has no clothes.
All the best to you
CNN is reporting on this now. The CDC Director is saying much less than 200k deaths. The 200K number was predicated on only 50% of the country listening to the govt's home shelter/isolation warning. They now estimate that 90% are. Good news.
or based on the importance of the area and the known size of all troops in France we should prepare for 500,000 defenders. If we are off high we win. If we are off low we lose from the get go
Which to choose? Which to choose?
But are the parameters so different that war analogies don't fit?
I mean in a war sure, it makes sense to me (someone with zero knowledge of strategic battle planning) err on the side of victory so sure go with the "worst" model - and like you said if we're off high we win, casualties might be higher (don't know) but in the end you are dealing with lives of people who (in current times) signed up for this and victory is the most important thing (I guess).
With the pandemic isn't it different? And just to challenge you, is there a point where the cure is worse than the disease?
Is there a tipping point that says worst case is x, likely is y, best case is z, but if we prepare for x there is a domino effect of [insert collateral damage here]....so maybe in this case preparing for worst case since it's not likely may not be the best approach. Maybe read and react (for a football analogy) is the best approach.
I don't know the answer, and never suggested I did, my only gripe was with the real time commentary and finger pointing that I feel is just not productive and i feel like for the most part it is not substantive and it is political in nature. I don't even think most of it is intellectually honest.
Quote:
this model projects 80k deaths in US by August, 10k in ny. projects the peak day to be 17 days from now. projects the peak day in new york to be april 6th.
The data scientists on this thread would be better qualified to evaluate this model than I am. There's a full paper that lost me on page 4 with this:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - ( New Window )
not trying to play any sort of gotcha game, just pointing out that there has been plenty of seemingly solid information in the public domain - Birx cited this model multiple times - that has tracked somewhat accurately (I'm not an expert in stats but it certainly seems to have predicted the peak in NY pretty accurately).
I read that one of the problems with these numbers is that it's not counting these who die at home because there is no point in testing them after they die. For example, in NY only those who test positive and die are counted. The guy in charge of the NYC Health Committee claims on average 20-25 dies at home daily. Since the Virus hit that has risen to 200-215 per day.
But the health department does not include that number in the official count unless it is confirmed, a spokesman said.
“Every person with a lab confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis is counted in the number of fatalities,” the spokesman, Michael Lanza, said in an email. He said the city's coronavirus death tally does not break down who died at home versus who died in a hospital from the virus.
“While undiagnosed cases that result in at-home deaths are connected to a public health pandemic...not all suspected COVID-19 deaths are brought in for examination by OCME, nor do we provide testing in most of these natural at-home deaths,” Lanza said.
Typically, when someone dies at home, a loved one, acquaintance or neighbor calls the police or 911. First responders call in the medical examiner, who conducts a review to determine if there was foul play, then records a cause of death.
Worthy-Davis could not immediately provide a tally of how many “probable” COVID-19 deaths have been referred to the Health Department. The health department also could not provide the number of “probable” COVID deaths certified by OCME.
Gothamist - ( New Window )
I stated this way early in the thread but both short and long term I am very concerned also with all the health aides/nurses that assist the elderly and those with other health conditions at their residence. There has to be tens of thousands that work in major cities and millions in the country performing this function. The worry is they bring the virus to the location. Hopefully the new testing will greatly assist with this but it needs close monitoring.
Whatever the numbers/contextualizations thrown around in this fog of war - better than expect, worse than expected, lower than other diseases, inaccurate mortality rates, etc - what impacts me are the basics that 10k+ people have already died, we've been at or above 1k per day for almost a week, are currently at or near a rate of 2k per day, and project to peak around ~3k per day for several days.
If we'd done nothing it's scary to think where that trend would have gone.
Whatever the numbers/contextualizations thrown around in this fog of war - better than expect, worse than expected, lower than other diseases, inaccurate mortality rates, etc - what impacts me are the basics that 10k+ people have already died, we've been at or above 1k per day for almost a week, are currently at or near a rate of 2k per day, and project to peak around ~3k per day for several days.
If we'd done nothing it's scary to think where that trend would have gone.
Absolutely.
I don't know the answer, and never suggested I did, my only gripe was with the real time commentary and finger pointing that I feel is just not productive and i feel like for the most part it is not substantive and it is political in nature. I don't even think most of it is intellectually honest.
The intellectual honesty of the debate is hard to measure on BBI where the pertinent facts are off limits, so that feels a little presumptive.
Counterproductive is nebulous in a debate among football fans. What’s the definition of productive in a chat with strangers. My view is; it is civil, respectful, fact-based, and defensible. Seems like most have stayed within those bounds on BBI.
Now off of BBI in the greater marketplace of ideas, I’d hope the public and private institutions aren’t making decisions based on commentary. So the utility isn’t about productivity, more just entertainment.
Sorry if posted earlier.
First Peer-Reviewed Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Shows Promising Results in Mice - ( New Window )
[quote]
jack
@jack
·
1h
I’m moving $1B of my Square equity (~28% of my wealth) to #startsmall LLC to fund global COVID-19 relief. After we disarm this pandemic, the focus will shift to girl’s health and education, and UBI. It will operate transparently, all flows tracked here:
Why UBI and girl’s health and education? I believe they represent the best long-term solutions to the existential problems facing the world. UBI is a great idea needing experimentation. Girl’s health and education is critical to balance:
Health and Education
drawdown.org
jack
@jack
·
1h
Why is #startsmall a LLC? This segments and dedicates my shares to these causes, and provides flexibility. Grants will be made from Start Small Foundation or the LLC directly based on the beneficiary org. All transfers, sales, and grants will be made public in tracking sheet.
jack
@jack
·
1h
Why the transparency? It’s important to show my work so I and others can learn. I’ve discovered and funded ($40mm) many orgs with proven impact and efficiency in the past, mostly anonymously. Going forward, all grants will be public. Suggestions welcome. Drop your cash app ;)
jack
@jack
·
1h
Why pull just from Square and not Twitter? Simply: I own a lot more Square. And I’ll need to pace the sales over some time. The impact this money will have should benefit both companies over the long-term because it’s helping the people we want to serve.
jack
@jack
·
1h
Why now? The needs are increasingly urgent, and I want to see the impact in my lifetime. I hope this inspires others to do something similar. Life is too short, so let’s do everything we can today to help people now. ✌🏼
https://twitter.com/jack/status/1247616214769086465 - ( New Window )
Whatever the numbers/contextualizations thrown around in this fog of war - better than expect, worse than expected, lower than other diseases, inaccurate mortality rates, etc - what impacts me are the basics that 10k+ people have already died, we've been at or above 1k per day for almost a week, are currently at or near a rate of 2k per day, and project to peak around ~3k per day for several days.
If we'd done nothing it's scary to think where that trend would have gone.
well said. and getting a truly accurate number will be forever difficult because lots of people die that were close to dieing from something else anyway - Germany's "accounting" isnt willfully obtuse, they just have a different point of view.
I'm not sure what tracking the death count accomplishes anyway, other than to a) get yourself depressed, or b) help with the blame game after this is all over. I'd much rather efforts were made to better track how much of the population has now developed immunity/anti-bodies than waste time properly tagging every death.
That's pretty impressive.
I think he gets a lot of undue flack for Twitter.
yes they are but like corona today influenza transmission is also by contact so even with gloves and masks, there is no guarantee.The training required and the discipline required to take care of patients especially older ones is something that is critical to review. At our next board meeting, I will be proposing a major change in care, training etc. that I believe will represent a paradigm shift in how we care for our elderly in nursing homes.
I do not accept the folks who say, they are old and are less valuable. My grandparents are valuable to me as they are I believe to all of us, we must do better. I will try much later on to post on BBI some of my recommendations for improvements we are undertaking. I hope it will lead to improvements across the board and lead to a fruitful discussion so we can all see improvement in elderly care.
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
Quote:
just like hurricane maria and h1n1, there is going to be some serious research required over the next few years to determine how many people have actually died beyond what's typical but weren't able to get officially tested.
Whatever the numbers/contextualizations thrown around in this fog of war - better than expect, worse than expected, lower than other diseases, inaccurate mortality rates, etc - what impacts me are the basics that 10k+ people have already died, we've been at or above 1k per day for almost a week, are currently at or near a rate of 2k per day, and project to peak around ~3k per day for several days.
If we'd done nothing it's scary to think where that trend would have gone.
well said. and getting a truly accurate number will be forever difficult because lots of people die that were close to dieing from something else anyway - Germany's "accounting" isnt willfully obtuse, they just have a different point of view.
I'm not sure what tracking the death count accomplishes anyway, other than to a) get yourself depressed, or b) help with the blame game after this is all over. I'd much rather efforts were made to better track how much of the population has now developed immunity/anti-bodies than waste time properly tagging every death.
I think having exact data (or as close as possible) can only help in the future. IE; The more accurate we are on what each person had regarding underlying issues is just one example of data that can be used in the future. Also having accurate counts of deaths will enable us a much more prepared stance in the future as far as medical equipment goes
Understand who, how, and how many die from the virus are literally the most important pieces of data to collect.
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
Ah, we suck again!
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
So.... "the virus is winning" again?
-Rocco
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
in seriousness though, most articles say you're unlikely to keep your "immunity" for as long as a year anyway, especially as strains mutate to an extent.. so we're going to need a vaccine or better treatments by the fall. This virus is unlikely to die out of natural causes just because we kept our 6 feet distances.
Article doesnt change anything... other than depress us
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
This is fascinating and seemingly counter intuitive:
"The team also found that antibody levels rose with age, with people in the 60-85 age group displaying more than three times the amount of antibodies as people in the 15-39 age group."
Just another reason to play it safe and temper our expectations of rushing back out into the world with badges of immunity before a vaccine is available.
In NYC, people were dying at their home 10 times the normal rate due to COVID-19, but were not being counted as having died due to the virus.
Both NY, NJ, & CT recorded their highest amount of deaths in a day on Monday.
In NYC, people were dying at their home 10 times the normal rate due to COVID-19, but were not being counted as having died due to the virus.
Anyone know what the normal rate is?
Damn.
Quote:
sorry this article from china might put a damper on anti bodies
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
This is fascinating and seemingly counter intuitive:
"The team also found that antibody levels rose with age, with people in the 60-85 age group displaying more than three times the amount of antibodies as people in the 15-39 age group."
Just another reason to play it safe and temper our expectations of rushing back out into the world with badges of immunity before a vaccine is available.
Well, if you can afford to hibernate for 18 months before supporting yourself/family again, power to you... most of us arent so lucky
Quote:
In comment 14862020 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:
sorry this article from china might put a damper on anti bodies
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
This is fascinating and seemingly counter intuitive:
"The team also found that antibody levels rose with age, with people in the 60-85 age group displaying more than three times the amount of antibodies as people in the 15-39 age group."
Just another reason to play it safe and temper our expectations of rushing back out into the world with badges of immunity before a vaccine is available.
Well, if you can afford to hibernate for 18 months before supporting yourself/family again, power to you... most of us arent so lucky
Every expert, including Fauci, say virus's all work the same way. Once you have it you develop antibodies and are immune for a while. They still have to verify this for Covid, but they all back it and I have posted multiple links on the topic. This is just stating some circumstantial evidence, some are immune some aren't I guess, but its not a study and its a real data point. I will trust the experts on this.
We will need to look at similar solutions in times when these pandemics are likely to increase. Funding for senior care across multiple countries is not a priority and in some cases is decreasing as other costs rise. If we value our seniors, much as we do our vets, then we need a realignment and soon. The accumulated deaths in our nursing home is to me a tragedy that is entirely unacceptable and requires a major new focus.
Distancing, availability of testing kits, rooms designed so that one infection does not become a pandemic in and of itself, daily testing both to identify those positive and those with immunity in pandemics such as these will prevent overwhelming deaths. There are many issues to address but I thought I would quote from a source I trust.
Doctors without borders suggested 3 caveats of great importance in these times. The first was to have dedicated hospitals for the pandemic i.e. do not mix non covid with covid thus helping decrease spread. Secondly, adequate munitions so that we are not at the mercy of companies or countries holding us hostage while people die. Thirdly, adequate psychological resources to help frontline workers during these crises. As someone who has been at the front line, I certainy understand the last point very well.
We must do more and not finger point but be ready to move quickly to prevent future pandemics. All of us have an obligation to do better and includes bringing up this issue to every level of government. We can do better and we must do better, the status quo is dysfunctional and the emperor has no clothes.
Thanks.
Quote:
In comment 14862079 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
In comment 14862020 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:
sorry this article from china might put a damper on anti bodies
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
This is fascinating and seemingly counter intuitive:
"The team also found that antibody levels rose with age, with people in the 60-85 age group displaying more than three times the amount of antibodies as people in the 15-39 age group."
Just another reason to play it safe and temper our expectations of rushing back out into the world with badges of immunity before a vaccine is available.
Well, if you can afford to hibernate for 18 months before supporting yourself/family again, power to you... most of us arent so lucky
Every expert, including Fauci, say virus's all work the same way. Once you have it you develop antibodies and are immune for a while. They still have to verify this for Covid, but they all back it and I have posted multiple links on the topic. This is just stating some circumstantial evidence, some are immune some aren't I guess, but its not a study and its a real data point. I will trust the experts on this.
You'll trust the experts on something they haven't established as fact yet? That's admirable but courageous.
Anyway, he very succinctly summed up a concept I have been thinking about for ages: "Most people don't believe something can happen until it already has." These past few weeks have certainly borne that out, and unfortunately, we don't really apply the learning of this lesson when experiencing one phenomena to other future unrelated phenomena.
The most worrisome symptom of this apparent truth is how it leads people to dismiss expert opinion, expertly presented data, or shit, even direct observation. I see a lot of insinuation that China lied, or rather, committed a lie of omission and concealed what they knew. What if it is worth than that: that they did not conceal the truth, but refused to learn it themselves instead? Did they actually even possess the full truth at the time, or did they suppress people from telling it even to themselves?
Quote:
of his Square equity to fight Covid. I don't how he runs Twitter, and inherent in every large donation is a separate debate about concentration of wealth in this country and the ethical quandary of relying on the mega-elite. But all that notwithstanding, this is tremendous philanthropy. My hope is that this inspires others to one-up him.
That's pretty impressive.
I think he gets a lot of undue flack for Twitter.
A friend of ours who is not one who frequently talks shit was once a corporate lawyer for Square, and he claimed Dorsey was one of the biggest assholes he had ever met.
I believed him and still do, but assholes can still make a very positive communal impact.
We will need to look at similar solutions in times when these pandemics are likely to increase. Funding for senior care across multiple countries is not a priority and in some cases is decreasing as other costs rise. If we value our seniors, much as we do our vets, then we need a realignment and soon. The accumulated deaths in our nursing home is to me a tragedy that is entirely unacceptable and requires a major new focus.
Distancing, availability of testing kits, rooms designed so that one infection does not become a pandemic in and of itself, daily testing both to identify those positive and those with immunity in pandemics such as these will prevent overwhelming deaths. There are many issues to address but I thought I would quote from a source I trust.
Doctors without borders suggested 3 caveats of great importance in these times. The first was to have dedicated hospitals for the pandemic i.e. do not mix non covid with covid thus helping decrease spread. Secondly, adequate munitions so that we are not at the mercy of companies or countries holding us hostage while people die. Thirdly, adequate psychological resources to help frontline workers during these crises. As someone who has been at the front line, I certainy understand the last point very well.
We must do more and not finger point but be ready to move quickly to prevent future pandemics. All of us have an obligation to do better and includes bringing up this issue to every level of government. We can do better and we must do better, the status quo is dysfunctional and the emperor has no clothes.
Thank you Snickers!!!
Understand who, how, and how many die from the virus are literally the most important pieces of data to collect.
Until we have almost universal testing for the presence of the virus, all data we collect can give only a very fuzzy range of results about things like "lethality" at confidence intervals with scientific validity.
This ability to test EVERYONE needs to be ramped up SERIOUSLY. Pardon the shouting.
Quote:
sorry this article from china might put a damper on anti bodies
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
So.... "the virus is winning" again?
-Rocco
No MAB, but "THE VIRUS IS IN CONTROL" - Rocco.
Quote:
In comment 14862020 giantfan2000 said:
Quote:
sorry this article from china might put a damper on anti bodies
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
So.... "the virus is winning" again?
-Rocco
No MAB, but "THE VIRUS IS IN CONTROL" - Rocco.
You are mocking him like we are not in the midst of a global pandemic that has put most of the world and the economy to a halt.
Quote:
In comment 14861569 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
imagine a person complain a team didn't go undefeated when they went 10-6 and only should have gone 7-9.
The scenario in the US is so bad that despite being magnitudes times the size of Italy and spain, the US has less deaths with a 3rd more cases.
Focus shouldn't be on blame for a WORLDWIDE pandemic - it should be on getting the right process in place for the next one.
Come on. It’s been a massive failure in the US. We had our first reported case on the same day as South Korea. They handled the situation well and limited death toll and cases. We are mired in a major crisis. Poor leadership. Too many blunders to mention (covered on this thread). Not to mention the initial public response, which encouraged irresponsible behavior.
Many on here were taking the administration’s cues and downplaying the virus. Calling it the flu or something less. I can’t get over how irresponsible and, frankly, stupid that was.
I’m very disappointed in how we responded to this. You want to lower the bar and give people credit for pooping their pants instead of the floor, fine. There are examples out there of how this should have been handled - or could have been handled much better.
My dad always used to say: “don’t compare yourself to those behind you - compare yourself to those ahead of you.”
One country in the world had a flatline (if you trust their reporting) and all anyone wants to do is say "you suck, you shit your pants" because you're not South Korea.
South Korea has so many difference from the US it's a silly, lazy comparison. South Korea is geographically about the size of Kentucky with the population of California crammed in. They have controllable borders and a far different culture than we do. South Korea used mandatory (though they say it isn't mandatory) GPS monitoring to track people infected, suspected people infected, and people who may have come in contact with those people. They tracked where those people went, their credit card transactions, commutes, etc. We have a constitution where even something some may say is "for the greater good" wouldn't supersede people's rights to privacy.
It's unlikely or unrealistic to expect a response similar to South Korea.
the one country who had a flat line.
If you want a better comparison add all of western Europe together and that is a more representative sample of a federation of states than a single homogeneous country.
and it's still stupid to do (at this time).
At some point, a look back makes a lot of sense so protocols and SOPs can be created or changed, but now you're taking your dad's advice too literally IMO.
Playing catch up here so apologize for going back to this.
Just to be clear, not advocating we should have done everything exactly as South Korea. Even if we started doing in late January all the things we have been doing the past few weeks (national stay-at-home guidance, emergency preparations, Stafford Act (although that should be more fully implemented), procuring of PPE from other sources, etc., we would have been in significantly better shape.
And it’s not hindsight - many of us and in the media were calling for this then.
We lost 6 weeks. That will likely be the difference between a death toll of a few thousand (even up to 20k, being conservative) vs what is being projected now. And that does not even consider that we should have gone further with some of these actions.
The point is not merely to point fingers but to find the voices in the room who have been right most of the way and listen to them about how to pull us through this. There are decisions being made (or not made) every day - we can still do better and get through this faster (in earnest - not just bc someone says “restart.. go!”) and with fewer casualties.
Pretty soon this will be in the rearview and it will be about pointing fingers, politics, etc. - and that may be appropriate then, if we’re entering an election about who should lead us forward. But right now we have the team we have and the goal is to win as many games remaining on the schedule as possible.
Quote:
The question remains, as citizens who pay these people...did you do your best? Have you self corrected the suboptimal thought patterns of 90/60/30 days ago so we can feel the future is steered as best it can...or are we stuck on stupid?
today, based on the current reality, the people who create models (the ones decisions I assume are based on) have revised most models (across the board, infections, hospitalizations, ICU and fatalities) and assumptions down from what they were which was down from what the originals were.
10 days ago we read 200,000 was best case, now we read 80,000.
Is that doing their best?
How do you know?
This is an uninformed post. I know the models you are citing here, and others that are similar. They are being used to make forecasts under certain scenarios.
While people on BBI were talking about this being a glorified flu, the CDC was using models like this to know and understand that significant disruptions were coming people's lives. They were right. Models predicted very high infection rates and death tolls if we did nothing about it, so guess what, public health officials recommended action, which we are taking. Next, actions taken have measurable effects, but we only know this because we can model them and understand what is happening, because actual symptoms and deaths are lagging indicators of the dynamics. Then, as the social actions take hold, and their effects can be measured, the new situation modeled again in a constant revision to inform public health officials. Meanwhile, health care is using similar forecasting to predict the timing and magnitude of shortages in beds and supplies so that something can be done in advance, and that saves thousands of lives. And you can sit back and say, see? the death toll is not as bad as I thought, those dumb scientists.
It reminds me of the guy who lives on the coast and there is a hurricane watch, so they buy plywood and stow water. Then as the storm approaches, the window of prediction narrows and those in the path board their houses and evacuate, and despite the destruction, few people die. Was that a false alarm? If the hurricane forecaster can't predict three weeks in advance where the eye will strike land, but only provide a window of probability as to where it will make landfall, do we decide to ignore the threat and mock the entire thing?
I get pretty annoyed when people look at gaps in knowledge and use them to conclude that nothing can be said, it's anti science. The science of epidemics, not just in humans but in many organisms, has taught us a lot about how they proceed. That can be used to identify dangers and recommend actions. The scientists are first and foremost to identify limitations, uncertainties or gaps in the data, if you read the actual research.
If all this is done properly, despite all the uncertainty, interventions work. And because they work, and the predictions get revised for the better, you say those scientists aren't doing their best? Who pays these people? That's pretty insulting.
We will need to look at similar solutions in times when these pandemics are likely to increase. Funding for senior care across multiple countries is not a priority and in some cases is decreasing as other costs rise. If we value our seniors, much as we do our vets, then we need a realignment and soon. The accumulated deaths in our nursing home is to me a tragedy that is entirely unacceptable and requires a major new focus.
Distancing, availability of testing kits, rooms designed so that one infection does not become a pandemic in and of itself, daily testing both to identify those positive and those with immunity in pandemics such as these will prevent overwhelming deaths. There are many issues to address but I thought I would quote from a source I trust.
Doctors without borders suggested 3 caveats of great importance in these times. The first was to have dedicated hospitals for the pandemic i.e. do not mix non covid with covid thus helping decrease spread. Secondly, adequate munitions so that we are not at the mercy of companies or countries holding us hostage while people die. Thirdly, adequate psychological resources to help frontline workers during these crises. As someone who has been at the front line, I certainy understand the last point very well.
We must do more and not finger point but be ready to move quickly to prevent future pandemics. All of us have an obligation to do better and includes bringing up this issue to every level of government. We can do better and we must do better, the status quo is dysfunctional and the emperor has no clothes.
Thanks for sharing this.
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
I wouldn’t be skeptical about that article.
Quote:
sorry this article from china might put a damper on anti bodies
Coronavirus: low antibody levels raise questions about reinfection risk - ( New Window )
I wouldn’t be skeptical about that article.
But remember, antibodies are not the be all and end all wrt protection. Especially with viruses. In fact, and not saying it’s true about this specific virus, antibodies are generally not the major protective measure against viruses.
I have to say, I do think the current events that have occured since I made that post have proven it to be closer to accurate than a crazy statement.
Just my two cents.
I have to say, I do think the current events that have occured since I made that post have proven it to be closer to accurate than a crazy statement.
Just my two cents.
Absolutely. Imagine someone trying to dispute that?
I have to say, I do think the current events that have occured since I made that post have proven it to be closer to accurate than a crazy statement.
Just my two cents.
Rocco you've been civil in our discussion whereas I've been very harsh critizing you, so it's fair to say I underestimated the scale of this pandemic badly.
But my biggest objection to your repeated posts about how this pandemic would be a different and a "one of a kind event with immense ramifications" if I may paraphrase you is the lack of historical perspective.
I suppose I have more faith in modern medicine than you do, and am giving more attention to the turn of the century influenza epidemic and it's long lasting effects, or any number of historical events in their context.
This virus wasn't a "novel" event like a virus or germ or some other type of human flesh consuming monster that might arrive to Earth someday from a distant galaxy.
And what's more, since the creation of the field molecular biology and our ability to rapidly diagnose the exact DNA (or RNA) sequence of any pathogen (created or evolved on this earth) I look at the past global pandemics and general expect the human race to fare better vs the "bugs" than we have previously.
This despite some fairly ignorant observations, decisions and pronouncements made by high level US elected officials.
Oh it's bad, and our emergency plan (just stay home!) surely ground many businesses to a halt and will indeed have ripple effects.
But, ya know, historical perspective?
Less than half US school children (I forget the age group assayed) know what or when the Holocaust was. And you know what, it continues over and over again for various peoples in various parts of the world, because of some combination of apathy and ignorance and well it's just difficult to get people on line with sensible human actions... Except when EVERYONE is affected by a specific threat.
I'm saddened by the ignorance of world events and I read some of your comments as projecting medical and biological ignorance, perhaps unfairly.
Still I don't think doubling down on your various world altering predictions is a wise move right now.
We dont at all disagree ( and never did) that even crude models with a wide range of possible outcomes support actions under uncertainty that are vital and timely.
I dont think you ever read what I actually wrote originally but rather riffed favorite opinions off it as you wished.
What I wrote was that further modeling technique adjustments was not the place to focus. By then practical issues like matching supply to needs and herding the remainder of the delayers was the key at that stage.
In fact further model tweaking without better data gives space to delayers to claim the "experts" still dont know
...in other words gives refuge while modelers debate to foolish inaction.
"Oh look the study from Framascram U says it's not going to be bad" " Oh no! BbI Inc. Just said it's going to kill 1 Billion people "
Possible reaction of too many looking at all those projections to decide what to do: " the experts dont agree so I'm going to follow my gut"
The original point was that further modeling refinements was not where the battle needed to be fought and better predictions were not going to come from technique but by cleaner data and more like for like time series and like for like testing.
Maybe you jumped to conclusions about the intent of the specific challenge in those posts. ( which were not a challenge to you or your expertise).
Over and out Don
Perspective is everything, the human story is littered with horrible events, no question. But, I have lived in NYC my entire life and the pandemic has impacted the city in multiple unprecedented ways. I don't see how this can be refuted. What happens in the future? I don't know. But, there will be an impact.
The tone of my posts weeks ago was also in reaction to the prevailing idea that this was just another "flu". I do think events have proven this argument false.
For the historical perspective argument, is it not clear that many things have occured due to the pandemic that have never before? I have written some lists off the top of my head here before. If you think that there have been no unprecedented things brought by this, we would have to agree to disagree.
This is a sports site, so as an example is it not unprecedented that all sports have been postponed? I know this pales in comparison to the real suffering by many out there, but this has never happened in my lifetime. I said once we would all be lucky to be talking Giant football in a few months. I didn't mean we would all be gone, I meant no one could pack stadiums due to this, there would be no season. Right now this is the case for all major sports. I hope it clears up for football, but can anyone say with certainty now this will be the case?
Regarding biology, I am no expert. I do think a vaccine made and produced in about 18 months would be an amazing achievement. One of the best in the history of medical science. I hope it happens that quick, but I hope a lot of things. Likely medicines and better treatments will come first as I understand it.
To sum up, I never called it a flesh eating monster, an extinction event or doomsday, I thought it a rational conclusion to draw months ago that it was a threat to the US, not just a regular flu, that it would greatly impact world current events and there would be long term changes to society in the USA which no one fan really predict.
Just a handful of things to consider.
Just think of sports:
If this holds into summer, there is a chance it will be the first time, other than a strike, since...the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 that there will be not Stanley Cup
First time ever there will be a 100% virtual NFL draft
Possibly no masters for the first time since WWII
Look at the NBA and MLB impacts, has that ever happened?
Financial:
We're possibly going to see the worst unemployment ever after this and we've already seen the largest single day stock market drop ($ biggest ever and % biggest since 1987)
Life:
In Jerusalem the Church of the Holy Sepulchre is closed for an extended period for the first time since 1349 and the Black Death plague.
that's some medieval shit right there, literally
This is an epic event, worldwide.
And I agree change will happen because of it, someone shared a twitter post about all the companies that were founded during recessions or down economic cycles and this list is impressive. Will be interesting to see how we come out of it to be sure.
Sorry if posted earlier. First Peer-Reviewed Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Shows Promising Results in Mice - ( New Window )
H2P! Pitt was was also where the first effective polio vaccine was developed
We dont at all disagree ( and never did) that even crude models with a wide range of possible outcomes support actions under uncertainty that are vital and timely.
I dont think you ever read what I actually wrote originally but rather riffed favorite opinions off it as you wished.
What I wrote was that further modeling technique adjustments was not the place to focus. By then practical issues like matching supply to needs and herding the remainder of the delayers was the key at that stage.
In fact further model tweaking without better data gives space to delayers to claim the "experts" still dont know
...in other words gives refuge while modelers debate to foolish inaction.
"Oh look the study from Framascram U says it's not going to be bad" " Oh no! BbI Inc. Just said it's going to kill 1 Billion people "
Possible reaction of too many looking at all those projections to decide what to do: " the experts dont agree so I'm going to follow my gut"
The original point was that further modeling refinements was not where the battle needed to be fought and better predictions were not going to come from technique but by cleaner data and more like for like time series and like for like testing.
Maybe you jumped to conclusions about the intent of the specific challenge in those posts. ( which were not a challenge to you or your expertise).
Over and out Don
I wasn't responding to you Bill, I was responding to pjacs who wrote something with your handle as the subject line.
That said, I still disagree with you a bit...model refinements are coming along continuously, even when there is not a pandemic happening. The same model frameworks are widely used in basic and applied research and constantly improving. Most of the changes making the news are projections that reflect changes on the ground such as social distancing and the duration thereof. I'd like to hear what you think scientists are doing that undermines the public trust.
BTW, this recent downward prediction of 80K deaths through August (my how far we've come in terms of expectations) assumes austere social distancing through August ... I bet most of the public would like to avoid that in some way. Fortunately there are plausible alternative possibilities ... they will surely be modeled before they are implemented.
Just a handful of things to consider.
Just think of sports:
If this holds into summer, there is a chance it will be the first time, other than a strike, since...the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 that there will be not Stanley Cup
First time ever there will be a 100% virtual NFL draft
Possibly no masters for the first time since WWII
Look at the NBA and MLB impacts, has that ever happened?
Financial:
We're possibly going to see the worst unemployment ever after this and we've already seen the largest single day stock market drop ($ biggest ever and % biggest since 1987)
Life:
In Jerusalem the Church of the Holy Sepulchre is closed for an extended period for the first time since 1349 and the Black Death plague.
that's some medieval shit right there, literally
This is an epic event, worldwide.
And I agree change will happen because of it, someone shared a twitter post about all the companies that were founded during recessions or down economic cycles and this list is impressive. Will be interesting to see how we come out of it to be sure.
completely agree here - if this isn't an epic worldwide event what is? I don't know what the biggest disaster was in the previous 100 years (1918 flu?) but I think it's very fair to hope that this is the biggest disaster any of us will see in our lifetimes.
The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.
We assess that the United States and the world will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or largescale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely
affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support.
Although the international community has made tenuous improvements to global health security,
these gains may be inadequate to address the challenge of what we anticipate will be more frequent
outbreaks of infectious diseases because of rapid unplanned urbanization, prolonged humanitarian
crises, human incursion into previously unsettled land, expansion of international travel and trade,
and regional climate change.
2. This year's public threat assessment + public briefing was scheduled to take place 2/12 but was delayed.
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
Good morning everyone! The IHME model being relied on by the WH has updated again, and I wanted to spotlight some of the changes since the 4/5 update. It's important to remember that each model has its flaws, but can be used to give a ballpark. Let's see what has changed:
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
1h
Replying to
@Alicia_Smith19
Overall US:
-# of total deaths projected decreased from 81,766 to 60,414
-Projected total bed shortage decreased from 34,654 to 15,852
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/15 to 4/11, peak daily death toll went from 4/16 to 4/12
-Under 200 deaths a day moved from 5/18 to 5/16
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
1h
Individual states: NY
-Peak hospital use and peak daily death toll are the same (4/8 and 4/9 respectively)
-Total deaths now projected to be 13,307 instead of 15,618
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/30
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
57m
State: FL
-Peak hospital use expected to be on 4/21 instead of 4/20. Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/23 instead of 4/21
-Total deaths now projected to be 4,257 instead of 6,770
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/21 instead of 5/26
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
53m
State: VA
-Peak hospital use and peak daily death toll remain the same (4/20 and 4/22 respectively)
-Total deaths projected went from 1401 to 891
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 instead of 5/6
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
49m
State: NJ
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/12 instead of 4/15. Peak daily death toll projected to be on 4/12 instead of 4/16
-Total deaths projected went from 9,690 to 5,277
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29 instead of 5/2
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
46m
State: MI
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/7 (yesterday) instead of today. Peak daily death toll projected remains the same, taking place on 4/9
-Total deaths projected went from 2,963 to 2,103.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/23, same as last update.
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
35m
State: TX
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/22 instead of 4/19. Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/24 instead of 4/20
-Total deaths projected went from 2,025 to 2,042.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/14 instead of 5/12
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
31m
State: IL
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be 4/11 instead of 4/16. Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/12 (same as before)
-Total deaths projected went from 3,629 to 1,588
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/27 instead of 4/29
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
29m
State: GA
-Peak hospital use and peak death toll projections stay the same on 4/20 and 4/21 respectively.
-Total deaths projected went from 3,413 to 2,630
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/15, same as last update.
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
27m
State: LA
-Peak hospital use was on 4/4 instead of 4/1 projected from last update. Peak daily death toll projected was yesterday 4/7 instead of 4/6.
-Total deaths projected went from 746 to 946
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/16 instead of 4/13
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
23m
State: CA
-Peak hospital use now projected to be 4/13 instead of 4/14. Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/15 instead of 4/17.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,783 to 1,611
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29 instead of 5/3
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
18m
State: WA
-Peak hospital use estimated to have occurred on 4/6 instead of 4/2. Peak daily death toll estimated to have occurred on 4/6 (which was projected in previous update)
-Total deaths projected went from 632 to 700
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/10
link to IHME model - ( New Window )
For now the focus should squarely be on limiting the spread and making sure the safety net is there for people and small business.
Yesterday 4/7 there were 1900 deaths so it looks like they were pretty accurate even through what's projected in this new update. So hopefully this new projection which has changed what is expected in 2-3 weeks in the future is similarly just as accurate.
I do think common sense would tell us there may be some unseen risks in the places that did not lock down until the last week though, but hope for the best. Maybe it was just spreading in NY that much earlier than everywhere else.
The hope is that people continue to operate in this manner, and don't misinterpret the fruits of their labor to mean that their labor wasn't worth it or was unnecessary.
We are still woefully under-prepared should the numbers spike back up.
I don't imagine that would impact the projected hospitalization rates and icu beds needed going forward, but I could perhaps see that impacting the peak day projection? But that's very in the weeds. I'd imagine the much smarter people building the models have taken something like that into account.
I don't imagine that would impact the projected hospitalization rates and icu beds needed going forward, but I could perhaps see that impacting the peak day projection? But that's very in the weeds. I'd imagine the much smarter people building the models have taken something like that into account.
deaths are a lagging stat, so if hospitilizations and icu is down, then we should see the dip in deaths in the coming days..
The hope is that people continue to operate in this manner, and don't misinterpret the fruits of their labor to mean that their labor wasn't worth it or was unnecessary.
We are still woefully under-prepared should the numbers spike back up.
Yes, the IHME model assumes social distancing measures currently in place extend through May.
Thanks. I appreciate the short relief from the doom and gloom.
have to wait until the backside goes all the way down, cant go to early
We seem to mis read each other a lot.
No one remotely said or ever thought that scientists(and I include data scientists) are not trying to contribute.
I did say there are limits to their role right now when it comes to getting citizen compliance and straightening out the logistics of care.
I do point out that because scientists are used by the class of salespeopleleaders currently in the forefront that further variations actually aid a luddite tendency and here is how:
Many of the folks citing science are using, misquoting, not caveating, not contextualizing the research for their purposes. So that already exists. Common to the early stages
When you add slight but not impactful findings to the mix luddites can step back and say "see...the experts dont agree" so what my friend said about an untested vaccine or medication is as valid as their wide range of opinions.
You and I know they are not opinions. At this stage surrounded by a lot of political aims and defending aims...model refinements with out a bunch more assumption and like for like data accumulation just comes out sounding to suspicious ears like science is guessing.
Science isnt understood, revered or honored by the audience most needed to be effective at this first wave time.
Please read without assumption that your expertise is being attacked. The limitations of good thinking being effective in the current echo chamber is the limiting factor for us all
agreed if i spend to much time reading or watching i find myself dreaming about it..
just did 45 minutes on the bike friends on the tv, perfect getaway
Also, I would think there's a difference between an annual assessment of our susceptibility and preparedness to a pandemic and a unique intelligence report that was specifically ringing alarms about Covid 19 and it's spread through Wuhan whereby repeated briefings were given in December and January about the risk.
...model refinements with out [things like] data accumulation just comes out sounding to suspicious ears like science is guessing.
I agree this happens. I get what you say about it sounding like guesswork. But despite all the imperfections and very different approaches, it is really important work that has driven policy in the right direction and provided early warnings of shortages during this pandemic.
Also, I would never want to say that all models are equally valuable. Some are just plain bad. I personally don't like the curve fitting approach used by IHME, which focuses more on fitting data to assumed curves. Maybe it does OK for short term forecasting, but it doesn't really describe the biology. I prefer the Imperial College approach which builds a set of differential equations from first principles, and predicts the dynamics and curves. What this means is that you can tweak biologically meaningful parameters (such as per person number of contacts) and explore general outcomes. Using this approach, I "guesstimated" on here last week that social distancing would soon be shown to be working, because all it would take is a 4x to 6x reduction in per person social contacts to reduce R0 to below 1.
You may have seen this, but for others, here is a rounded view of the strengths/weakness/complications of simulating the current pandemic...
The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19 - ( New Window )
I think that is basically correct. I am reading the best case scenario (pre-vaccine) is to beat the thing down low enough so that some combination of testing with contact tracing can keep things in check. I posted a link to a paper on this scenario but can't seem to be able to scroll back and find it.
The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.
There's some anecdotal accounts and speculation that this thing was circulating in parts of the US as early as December. Many people had unusual respiratory illness in December almost immediately after the normal cold season. My office was hit pretty hard back then and I really do wonder if we got it and recovered. I've never had a cold, recovered, and then gotten sick again within 2 weeks in my life but it happened.
just in my experience (granted other applications) there is too much inference in curve fitting
Quote:
US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life.
The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.
There's some anecdotal accounts and speculation that this thing was circulating in parts of the US as early as December. Many people had unusual respiratory illness in December almost immediately after the normal cold season. My office was hit pretty hard back then and I really do wonder if we got it and recovered. I've never had a cold, recovered, and then gotten sick again within 2 weeks in my life but it happened.
That happened to me also. IN fact I had to cancel a trio to Vegas for new years eve and then got sick agin over the mlk holiday weekend.Also they thought my wife had the flu in mid January. Who knows. If they come out with an accurate antibody testing I will push to get tested for my wife and I.
I know a lot of people caught bugs this winter that felt more severe (or more frequent) than in past years.
But given the number of people who caught Covid and required ICUs and ventilators, we likely would have seen a significant uptick in ICU stays in December/January as well. Was that the case?
It's not like people with underlying symptoms, or people over 65 would quarantining and using social distancing measures in December/January.
I know a lot of people caught bugs this winter that felt more severe (or more frequent) than in past years.
But given the number of people who caught Covid and required ICUs and ventilators, we likely would have seen a significant uptick in ICU stays in December/January as well. Was that the case?
It's not like people with underlying symptoms, or people over 65 would quarantining and using social distancing measures in December/January.
Paul, good point on the ICU census.
This year's strain of flu was particularly brutal.
And the flu season isn't quite done, and yes there are an increase of hospitalizations from this years flu which has exacerbated bed shortages for COVID.
I had the flu this year myself in early Feb. I don't think it was COVID, symptoms differ some. The cough had phlegm, no loss of taste or smell. I've seen a couple of Chris Cuomo's video descriptions of what he is going through. They are an interesting watch, nothing political for those worried about watching CNN. It's a pure blow by blow account of what he is going through. Definitely different from the flu from which I suffered. My fever was pretty high though about 103, brutal coughs, lots of muscle cramps. I still have a shoulder blade muscle (not sure if its the Trap or Rhomboid) that hasn't fully recovered.
Also, I would think there's a difference between an annual assessment of our susceptibility and preparedness to a pandemic and a unique intelligence report that was specifically ringing alarms about Covid 19 and it's spread through Wuhan whereby repeated briefings were given in December and January about the risk.
Definitely agree there are likely specific standalone threat assessments for specific risks (like this). The confidential briefings we have heard about to congress in mid-January as an example we know about.
We obviously don't have access to those briefings as the general public, so just pointing out that there is a public forum/process and presumably since pandemics are within the range of topics that assessment has covered previously Covid-19 was likely to be addressed.
@TomBossert
·
Apr 4
Diagnostic tests weren't needed to see the problem in NYC. This chart, reported weekly, shows syndromic surveillance. You can see the impact of #coronavirus in red. ILI data show a restart of "flu-like" illness after seasonal flu had ended. The evidence was clear week 10 (3/1-7).
In coronavirus response, we only get 2 strikes - ( New Window )
Vaccination is the holy grail but as I previously alluded to,till vaccines are available testing testing and more testing is required. Not only to detect positivity to COVID but also to determine levels of immunity in the community at large. Your update for the day lololol.
Quote:
I remember in January a few friends / family members getting pneumonia and making note of just how many people had pneumonia at the time.
This year's strain of flu was particularly brutal.
And the flu season isn't quite done, and yes there are an increase of hospitalizations from this years flu which has exacerbated bed shortages for COVID.
I had the flu this year myself in early Feb. I don't think it was COVID, symptoms differ some. The cough had phlegm, no loss of taste or smell. I've seen a couple of Chris Cuomo's video descriptions of what he is going through. They are an interesting watch, nothing political for those worried about watching CNN. It's a pure blow by blow account of what he is going through. Definitely different from the flu from which I suffered. My fever was pretty high though about 103, brutal coughs, lots of muscle cramps. I still have a shoulder blade muscle (not sure if its the Trap or Rhomboid) that hasn't fully recovered.
In January my son had a lot of these symptoms for about 2 weeks. Temp, dry cough, aches, fatigue, but being a 20 something he just thought it was a flu and powered thru. After he got better I got sick. For the first time in my life I broke out with hives and got a fever. I got some steroids, took a lot of benedryl, and eventually it all went away. Looking back I wonder about this.
Still, just as there are undoubtedly a lot of positives who don't get officially identified, I think there's probably a lot of folks who are saying 'hey, I think I had it' who didn't have it. Sans official identification, caution should be used in anecdotal evidence of how widespread it may or may not be.
Vaccination is the holy grail but as I previously alluded to,till vaccines are available testing testing and more testing is required. Not only to detect positivity to COVID but also to determine levels of immunity in the community at large. Your update for the day lololol.
You mean... Kramer was right???
Still, just as there are undoubtedly a lot of positives who don't get officially identified, I think there's probably a lot of folks who are saying 'hey, I think I had it' who didn't have it. Sans official identification, caution should be used in anecdotal evidence of how widespread it may or may not be.
Yeah we’re just not going to know until we get antibody testing. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
The chart above with red line is interesting .... but who knows if this was a ‘bad flu’ season or if there’s CV impact in there. Since we know this virus spreads exponentially... it’s certainly possible it’s been here since call it christmas / New Years. I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume before then.
“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.
A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.
I was wondering if it would be possible to overlay the genetic trace data with the cell phone trace data. Be pretty cool data project.
NYT Genetic trace of NYC covid - ( New Window )
Vaccination is the holy grail but as I previously alluded to,till vaccines are available testing testing and more testing is required. Not only to detect positivity to COVID but also to determine levels of immunity in the community at large. Your update for the day lololol.
Really promising information. Thanks! Please go over (again, if I've just missed this earlier) how we can determine nationally -- that is, in the community at large -- what percentage have one or another level of immunity to COVID through limited testing. How many have to be tested to serve this purpose?
From what I can tell it's some combo of testing, wearing masks, washing hands, still trying to maintain some distancing and most importantly rapid action/isolation when someone shows symptoms.
Also maybe everything doesn't come back at once?
I don't know the answer, like everyone I would enjoy going back to normal but I think we need clear guidance everyone can follow.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.amp.html
From what I can tell it's some combo of testing, wearing masks, washing hands, still trying to maintain some distancing and most importantly rapid action/isolation when someone shows symptoms.
Also maybe everything doesn't come back at once?
I don't know the answer, like everyone I would enjoy going back to normal but I think we need clear guidance everyone can follow.
I think the consensus is that test is the key. You want the serology testing to see who’s had it and not carrying an active infection and then you want the rapid test kits for anyone showing symptoms so they can be quickly isolated. We'll need some way to keep highly vulnerable from gen pop until there is vaccine. Treatment capacity needs to continue to be augmented and probably separated so healthcare workers can take extra precaution. And we will need to control domestic travel - the test would help and be a part of that - and we need to restrict foreign entry by testing and quarantine.
There needs to coordination between state and local government. Hope the federal government can find some way to be helpful and at the very least not be harmful.
The health aspect is not nearly as complicated as the economic aspect.
They wrote a letter to 600 households. Of those 600 households 400 with 1000 people took part in the study. They were questioned and got tested by swabs and a blood test for the antibodies. They have the results of 500 of those people in and gave a press conference today.
The current results are that ~14% of the tested people in the study had antibodies and ~2% of the people had active Corona infections. The total infection rate was ~15% (currently or already recovered infections).
The CFR from that data + the total infections in Gangelt (the ones that were already active/tested outside of the study) is 0.37%.
They conclude form these first results that 15% of the populace of Gangelt is already immune to the virus and the "herd immunity" is already in progress as a result. They especially say that with 15% immune people, the spread of the virus is already slowed down.
They think that with keeping serious hygiene measures intact, that the viral concentration of a person can be reduced and that as a result the cases are more mild while developing immunity. (I think that is backed up through other studies).
The initial spread through Carnival and Apre-Ski in Ischgl (they could trace pretty much all cases back to those) was a "superspreading event" which should not happen again as long as you keep the stronger hygiene measures.
From the points above (no superspreading events -> better hygiene -> less viral load -> milder cases ) they think that the CFR will be lower in the future.
They then propose a four-phase strategy:
Phase 1: Social quarantine (current phase)
Phase 2: Step by step going back to normal, while keeping stronger hygiene rules intact
Phase 3: No quarantine regulations, but keeping stronger hygiene rules intact
Phase 4: Back to normal
Link - ( New Window )
TIA
https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/simulation-shows-how-a-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-a-store/ - ( New Window )
They wrote a letter to 600 households. Of those 600 households 400 with 1000 people took part in the study. They were questioned and got tested by swabs and a blood test for the antibodies. They have the results of 500 of those people in and gave a press conference today.
The current results are that ~14% of the tested people in the study had antibodies and ~2% of the people had active Corona infections. The total infection rate was ~15% (currently or already recovered infections).
The CFR from that data + the total infections in Gangelt (the ones that were already active/tested outside of the study) is 0.37%.
They conclude form these first results that 15% of the populace of Gangelt is already immune to the virus and the "herd immunity" is already in progress as a result. They especially say that with 15% immune people, the spread of the virus is already slowed down.
They think that with keeping serious hygiene measures intact, that the viral concentration of a person can be reduced and that as a result the cases are more mild while developing immunity. (I think that is backed up through other studies).
The initial spread through Carnival and Apre-Ski in Ischgl (they could trace pretty much all cases back to those) was a "superspreading event" which should not happen again as long as you keep the stronger hygiene measures.
From the points above (no superspreading events -> better hygiene -> less viral load -> milder cases ) they think that the CFR will be lower in the future.
They then propose a four-phase strategy:
Phase 1: Social quarantine (current phase)
Phase 2: Step by step going back to normal, while keeping stronger hygiene rules intact
Phase 3: No quarantine regulations, but keeping stronger hygiene rules intact
Phase 4: Back to normal Link - ( New Window )
Thank you for posting this. Very interesting and there four part plan makes sense. You can't shut down forever, have to live with it and take behavior measures as society.
Easily communicable disease has to be respected again after a few generations where no one. really worried about it.
Do you think the US will do similar studies?
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Thomas P. Bossert
@TomBossert
·
Apr 4
Diagnostic tests weren't needed to see the problem in NYC. This chart, reported weekly, shows syndromic surveillance. You can see the impact of #coronavirus in red. ILI data show a restart of "flu-like" illness after seasonal flu had ended. The evidence was clear week 10 (3/1-7).
In coronavirus response, we only get 2 strikes - ( New Window )
Eric, good stuff. As far as the chart goes, I think the severe spike starting in Week 10 (3/1-3/7) is an indication that Covid wasn't what was responsible for all of the harsh bugs that people were getting November-January. Otherwise, there wouldn't have been such a precipitous drop from Weeks 5 - 10.
If you have storage space, buy what you need for a week, or two, or three, and then stay home.
When I went the other day, the majority of people were only buying a few items, so you know they'll be back in the store in a day or two.
The goal is to minimize social interaction, and buying in bulk is one way of doing so.
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It seems like social distancing is really working, that's great news. The next step is to figure out how to move back towards normal life without setting off another explosion of infections. Anyone have a plan for that?
From what I can tell it's some combo of testing, wearing masks, washing hands, still trying to maintain some distancing and most importantly rapid action/isolation when someone shows symptoms.
Also maybe everything doesn't come back at once?
I don't know the answer, like everyone I would enjoy going back to normal but I think we need clear guidance everyone can follow.
I think the consensus is that test is the key. You want the serology testing to see who’s had it and not carrying an active infection and then you want the rapid test kits for anyone showing symptoms so they can be quickly isolated. We'll need some way to keep highly vulnerable from gen pop until there is vaccine. Treatment capacity needs to continue to be augmented and probably separated so healthcare workers can take extra precaution. And we will need to control domestic travel - the test would help and be a part of that - and we need to restrict foreign entry by testing and quarantine.
There needs to coordination between state and local government. Hope the federal government can find some way to be helpful and at the very least not be harmful.
The health aspect is not nearly as complicated as the economic aspect.
Most things will go back to normal when we have:
(a) Scientifically proven effective drug regimen;
(b) Reliable vaccine.
One can only guess when (a) and (b) are fully in place. Perhaps 4-to-6 months for drug regimen; perhaps 18-24 months for vaccine.
Until then, nothing will really be quite normal.
Those are just the people who have been successful in filing a claim. In Florida, the website was down for 2 days. And the state is looking for COBOL programmers to upgrade the site. And this is after the site was updated a decade ago. Shame on them on building on an outdated framework. Florida is now relying on paper application claims. In 2020, a paper application ...
Quote:
About 17 million in the last 3 weeks
Those are just the people who have been successful in filing a claim. In Florida, the website was down for 2 days. And the state is looking for COBOL programmers to upgrade the site. And this is after the site was updated a decade ago. Shame on them on building on an outdated framework. Florida is now relying on paper application claims. In 2020, a paper application ...
What happens when a nation decides to disperse financial aid to its citizens but doesn't have the technical infrastructure to do so?
Maybe related to this, I haven't seen actual numbers (or even confirmed if it's true), but I read that since coronavirus death tracking began, deaths from heart attacks, pneumonia, and season flu have nosedived. Are we getting reliable numbers (and does it matter)?
@Breaking911
· 3h
BREAKING: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says the city will begin labeling ‘coronavirus victims’ who weren’t even tested for the disease if their ‘symptoms fit certain parameters’ - WNBC
Airline industry recovery could take a while too, same with hotels.
Airline industry recovery could take a while too, same with hotels.
As an avid cruise person, I'm ready to go when this stops. In fact I still have a river cruise scheduled for July 4th. Some people have always disliked cruises, to each his own. I also am of the belief that people will "flip back" to normal mode quicker than many think. Personally when this blows through I will go back to flying, etc, again. I do think more people working from home is here to stay, which isn't a bad thing.
Maybe related to this, I haven't seen actual numbers (or even confirmed if it's true), but I read that since coronavirus death tracking began, deaths from heart attacks, pneumonia, and season flu have nosedived. Are we getting reliable numbers (and does it matter)?
Quote:
Breaking911
@Breaking911
· 3h
BREAKING: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says the city will begin labeling ‘coronavirus victims’ who weren’t even tested for the disease if their ‘symptoms fit certain parameters’ - WNBC
I said this the other day and got killed for it, if you test positive for covid and you pass away, you get marked as a covid death no matter what.
Fisting...it's presidential! - ( New Window )
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but based on the tweet without context, how does this make sense?
Maybe related to this, I haven't seen actual numbers (or even confirmed if it's true), but I read that since coronavirus death tracking began, deaths from heart attacks, pneumonia, and season flu have nosedived. Are we getting reliable numbers (and does it matter)?
Quote:
Breaking911
@Breaking911
· 3h
BREAKING: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says the city will begin labeling ‘coronavirus victims’ who weren’t even tested for the disease if their ‘symptoms fit certain parameters’ - WNBC
I said this the other day and got killed for it, if you test positive for covid and you pass away, you get marked as a covid death no matter what.
That is part of it and that to me represents a lot of variability when reporting stats since not all countries do that.
In this case, the tweet says they're not even going to test you. If you die and have COVID-19 "like" symptoms they are saying you died from COVID-19.
At least that is how I interpret the tweet, but like I said there was no context (or link to explain it).
Here is some data on the 2020 flu season. Yes it has taken a nose dive but 1) not outside of historic levels and 2) social distancing would have a positive effect on the flu as well
Link - ( New Window )
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but based on the tweet without context, how does this make sense?
Maybe related to this, I haven't seen actual numbers (or even confirmed if it's true), but I read that since coronavirus death tracking began, deaths from heart attacks, pneumonia, and season flu have nosedived. Are we getting reliable numbers (and does it matter)?
Quote:
Breaking911
@Breaking911
· 3h
BREAKING: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says the city will begin labeling ‘coronavirus victims’ who weren’t even tested for the disease if their ‘symptoms fit certain parameters’ - WNBC
I said this the other day and got killed for it, if you test positive for covid and you pass away, you get marked as a covid death no matter what.
I don't see the point of doing this. Its like the major driver is just to show higher Covid deaths. If someone has no symptoms, but just carries it for some reason, and dies of getting shot, why is that a Covid death and how does counting that help anything?
Quote:
In comment 14863599 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but based on the tweet without context, how does this make sense?
Maybe related to this, I haven't seen actual numbers (or even confirmed if it's true), but I read that since coronavirus death tracking began, deaths from heart attacks, pneumonia, and season flu have nosedived. Are we getting reliable numbers (and does it matter)?
Quote:
Breaking911
@Breaking911
· 3h
BREAKING: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says the city will begin labeling ‘coronavirus victims’ who weren’t even tested for the disease if their ‘symptoms fit certain parameters’ - WNBC
I said this the other day and got killed for it, if you test positive for covid and you pass away, you get marked as a covid death no matter what.
I don't see the point of doing this. Its like the major driver is just to show higher Covid deaths. If someone has no symptoms, but just carries it for some reason, and dies of getting shot, why is that a Covid death and how does counting that help anything?
I dunno, but i heard from a doctor and you go in with a heart attack, and you die a couple of days later, if you have covid the only thing they put on the death certificate is covid
Has been tryinig to get UI for 3 days now, says its impossible. There is some talk about making payments retroactive to when you were laid off. Why that isn't the case kind of blows my mind to begin with.
Here is some data on the 2020 flu season. Yes it has taken a nose dive but 1) not outside of historic levels and 2) social distancing would have a positive effect on the flu as well Link - ( New Window )
You can test post-mortem. I read a story about a coroner in Colorado that was trying to get tests to determine cause of death...
Good news. Hope it continues.
If you want to keep positive vibes do not go listen to murphy
Quote:
About 17 million in the last 3 weeks
Those are just the people who have been successful in filing a claim. In Florida, the website was down for 2 days. And the state is looking for COBOL programmers to upgrade the site. And this is after the site was updated a decade ago. Shame on them on building on an outdated framework. Florida is now relying on paper application claims. In 2020, a paper application ...
Building a website a decade ago is ancient history in computing terms. People in Florida love low taxes, but this is what low taxes get you. The government has trouble attracting talented software developers because of the salaries they command. Plus the fact once you jump to government, your career in the private world becomes finished because of lack of development/antiquated programs/different programs than the private sector uses.
It's hard to get worked up about this. You can't plan for every scenario. Keeping taxes low has costs.
They should still be capturing all the factors.
Link - ( New Window )
Possible reasons sited are people being afraid to go to the hospital, lack and triggers with social distancing.
Mis-reporting is not mentioned but probably shouldn’t be thrown out as a factor.
Link - ( New Window )
Meanwhile over 200 people are dying at home every day in NY and aren't being recorded as Covid deaths. So the numbers of Covid deaths are most likely being under-reported.
Quote:
In comment 14863391 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
About 17 million in the last 3 weeks
Those are just the people who have been successful in filing a claim. In Florida, the website was down for 2 days. And the state is looking for COBOL programmers to upgrade the site. And this is after the site was updated a decade ago. Shame on them on building on an outdated framework. Florida is now relying on paper application claims. In 2020, a paper application ...
Building a website a decade ago is ancient history in computing terms. People in Florida love low taxes, but this is what low taxes get you. The government has trouble attracting talented software developers because of the salaries they command. Plus the fact once you jump to government, your career in the private world becomes finished because of lack of development/antiquated programs/different programs than the private sector uses.
It's hard to get worked up about this. You can't plan for every scenario. Keeping taxes low has costs.
Meanwhile over 200 people are dying at home every day in NY and aren't being recorded as Covid deaths. So the numbers of Covid deaths are most likely being under-reported.
There obviously is no link, I was making a joke to make a point. If someone dies of something else, and Covid had nothing to do with it, why is that a death being attributed to Covid? This has nothing to do with the people who die at home of Covid. It has to do with the people who I guess are asymptomatic, die of something else of which Covid had nothing to do with it, but are now counted as a Covid death. I am trying to understand how this helps anything, other than pump up numbers.
Who is saying this? de Blasio says they need to have exhibited "symptoms that fit certain parameters." While vague, that's the opposite of asymptomatic.
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I'd love a link to this.
Meanwhile over 200 people are dying at home every day in NY and aren't being recorded as Covid deaths. So the numbers of Covid deaths are most likely being under-reported.
There obviously is no link, I was making a joke to make a point. If someone dies of something else, and Covid had nothing to do with it, why is that a death being attributed to Covid? This has nothing to do with the people who die at home of Covid. It has to do with the people who I guess are asymptomatic, die of something else of which Covid had nothing to do with it, but are now counted as a Covid death. I am trying to understand how this helps anything, other than pump up numbers.
There's a link above from yesterday that linked this that I posted. NYC has gone from 20-25 deaths at home a day to 200-215 per day since the Virus hit there. They have been labeling some of those as probable COVID deaths but they were not being counted.
Do you think they are just making it up?
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It has to do with the people who I guess are asymptomatic, die of something else of which Covid had nothing to do with it, but are now counted as a Covid death.
Who is saying this? de Blasio says they need to have exhibited "symptoms that fit certain parameters." While vague, that's the opposite of asymptomatic.
Ok, I guess it depends what these parameters are. If the person dies clearly from Covid, being at home or in the hospital shouldn't matter, its a Covid death. I am all for counting deaths accurately, I'm not for "stretching" definitions to manipulate data, which this certainly gives the opportunity to do depending on these parameters.
Possible reasons sited are people being afraid to go to the hospital, lack and triggers with social distancing.
Mis-reporting is not mentioned but probably shouldn’t be thrown out as a factor. Link - ( New Window )
It's hard to buy the risk factors going down while sheltering in place. I've been eating more and more unhealthy "comfort" foods since this all started.
I think it's just a response to account for the magnitude of increase in home deaths. There's plenty of data to show the average home deaths prior to the outbreak was in the 20s and now it's closer to 200. That's probably not a coincidence.
What will be interesting to know after this is over is how many of those were people who didn't have COVID but were afraid to go get treatment for a serious condition...
link - ( New Window )
But that doesnt mean they are dying from covid? it could be people who are sick who dont want to go anywhere..
Unless it is discovered that there is widespread manipulation of data for nefarious purposes, seems like an odd thing to focus on with what we know is going on.
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Talking about the 10x number of people dying at home per day that are not being counted because they're not being tested after the fact link - ( New Window )
But that doesnt mean they are dying from covid? it could be people who are sick who dont want to go anywhere..
no it doesn't. And no one is saying they are all covid deaths. but its a pretty safe assumption that a not insignificant portion have covid as a contributing factor.
Again, I would take all these #s-positive tests, mortality rates, etc.-with a huge grain of salt.
The positive news, in NY at least, is that hospital admittance/ICU need is going down. That is good news. And it's been going on for a couple of days now.
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Talking about the 10x number of people dying at home per day that are not being counted because they're not being tested after the fact link - ( New Window )
But that doesnt mean they are dying from covid? it could be people who are sick who dont want to go anywhere..
When you go from a daily average of 25 deaths per day at home to 215 per day during a Pandemic hitting your city what do you think attributed to that massive increase?
The tone of some of these comments seems to imply there is a force out there wanting Covid to get unfair credit for body counts. The approach public officials are taking doesn't back that conspiracy.
The most devastating outcome would be to let up too early, miss signals that are out there, and then turn around redo this again in a few weeks.
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In comment 14863740 montanagiant said:
Quote:
Talking about the 10x number of people dying at home per day that are not being counted because they're not being tested after the fact link - ( New Window )
But that doesnt mean they are dying from covid? it could be people who are sick who dont want to go anywhere..
When you go from a daily average of 25 deaths per day at home to 215 per day during a Pandemic hitting your city what do you think attributed to that massive increase?
it could be people afraid to go to the hospital, heart attacks not going to hospital, suicides, it could be a number of things, doesnt necassarily mean they are dieing from covid
it could be people afraid to go to the hospital, heart attacks not going to hospital, suicides, it could be a number of things, doesnt necassarily mean they are dieing from covid
The articles linked clearly state there will be a distinction to count likely Covid. They aren't stuffing the ballot with people with gun shots to the head.
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In comment 14863743 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14863740 montanagiant said:
Quote:
Talking about the 10x number of people dying at home per day that are not being counted because they're not being tested after the fact link - ( New Window )
But that doesnt mean they are dying from covid? it could be people who are sick who dont want to go anywhere..
When you go from a daily average of 25 deaths per day at home to 215 per day during a Pandemic hitting your city what do you think attributed to that massive increase?
it could be people afraid to go to the hospital, heart attacks not going to hospital, suicides, it could be a number of things, doesnt necassarily mean they are dieing from covid
They aren't counting those, the only ones they are going to count are probable covid deaths. It's all in that article I linked. Also, do you honestly think 10x increase in deaths at home could be from suicides? I mean logically speaking that's absurd given the fact that COVID has hit NYC hard
Unless it is discovered that there is widespread manipulation of data for nefarious purposes, seems like an odd thing to focus on with what we know is going on.
You're probably right. 1/2 of me is just getting tired of all this stuff, 1/2 of me is just getting frustrated with all these contradicting data points, and the last 1/2 is just getting cabin fever (if you get what I mean).
It seems like a tremendous leap of faith to think surges in at home deaths aren't related at all to COVID.
I have a pre-existing heart condition. If I start feeling shortness of breath and have trouble breathing i'm going to the ER without hesitation.
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In comment 14863757 montanagiant said:
Quote:
In comment 14863743 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14863740 montanagiant said:
Quote:
Talking about the 10x number of people dying at home per day that are not being counted because they're not being tested after the fact link - ( New Window )
But that doesnt mean they are dying from covid? it could be people who are sick who dont want to go anywhere..
When you go from a daily average of 25 deaths per day at home to 215 per day during a Pandemic hitting your city what do you think attributed to that massive increase?
it could be people afraid to go to the hospital, heart attacks not going to hospital, suicides, it could be a number of things, doesnt necassarily mean they are dieing from covid
They aren't counting those, the only ones they are going to count are probable covid deaths. It's all in that article I linked. Also, do you honestly think 10x increase in deaths at home could be from suicides? I mean logically speaking that's absurd given the fact that COVID has hit NYC hard
Must be a conspiracy...
Doesn't make any sense.
Feel kinda bad for a few days, things get worse and you see how you feel in the morning and don’t make it to the morning.
Some of this might not be by choice. With social distancing, people may not be able to call for help on their own.
In fact, hasn’t that been the directive from the government for covid? Stay at home until you have to come in. Not a surprise people applying that to all ailments.
Feel kinda bad for a few days, things get worse and you see how you feel in the morning and don’t make it to the morning.
Some of this might not be by choice. With social distancing, people may not be able to call for help on their own.
I meant besides COVID.
In fact, hasn’t that been the directive from the government for covid? Stay at home until you have to come in. Not a surprise people applying that to all ailments.
Well my neighbor is a general surgeon at Yale and he told me surgeries across the board are way down. But many of those are non-emergency. They are still taking emergencies though, its not like the doors are shut.
which I think is the main point being discussed
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It seems like social distancing is really working, that's great news. The next step is to figure out how to move back towards normal life without setting off another explosion of infections. Anyone have a plan for that?
From what I can tell it's some combo of testing, wearing masks, washing hands, still trying to maintain some distancing and most importantly rapid action/isolation when someone shows symptoms.
Also maybe everything doesn't come back at once?
I don't know the answer, like everyone I would enjoy going back to normal but I think we need clear guidance everyone can follow.
I think the consensus is that test is the key. You want the serology testing to see who’s had it and not carrying an active infection and then you want the rapid test kits for anyone showing symptoms so they can be quickly isolated. We'll need some way to keep highly vulnerable from gen pop until there is vaccine. Treatment capacity needs to continue to be augmented and probably separated so healthcare workers can take extra precaution. And we will need to control domestic travel - the test would help and be a part of that - and we need to restrict foreign entry by testing and quarantine.
There needs to coordination between state and local government. Hope the federal government can find some way to be helpful and at the very least not be harmful.
The health aspect is not nearly as complicated as the economic aspect.
Just to be clear on serology tests...
Antibody testing is *huge* but you have to be careful of what you think that they are telling you and it's not as much as most people think.
A negative test does not mean that you are uninfected.
A positive test means that you have been exposed to the virus, although *and this cannot be stressed enough* you have to trust the test.
Most of the Rapid IgM/IgG tests you read about in the paper have much less sensitivity than they tout themselves to have and the specificity for many of them is extremely poor. Sensitivity means you get a negative result even though you do make antibodies. Specificity means the positive result is due to antibodies made in response to something other than CoV-2, usually the common (cold) coronaviruses.
Even if the test is true, it does *not* mean that you are not currently infected with the virus and capable of infecting others.
It also does *not* mean that you are immune to the virus.
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Sounds like the symptoms come on real strong at the 10 day mark.
Feel kinda bad for a few days, things get worse and you see how you feel in the morning and don’t make it to the morning.
Some of this might not be by choice. With social distancing, people may not be able to call for help on their own.
I meant besides COVID.
how about a stroke or a heart attack with someone living alone and no way to call for help?
Before they could do that the operation had to be approved by a committee. So while the hospital is still handling other stuff than COVID they are only doing surgeries if needed, nothing elective is being done
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In comment 14863924 ron mexico said:
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Sounds like the symptoms come on real strong at the 10 day mark.
Feel kinda bad for a few days, things get worse and you see how you feel in the morning and don’t make it to the morning.
Some of this might not be by choice. With social distancing, people may not be able to call for help on their own.
I meant besides COVID.
how about a stroke or a heart attack with someone living alone and no way to call for help?
They won't be counting those, it's only probable deaths attributed to COVID. I'm sure once we get a surplus of tests they will start using those to confirm
When the real story is that the number of COVID deaths has probably been underreported in the past due to all the at home deaths not being counted at all.
Isn't it all?
Why is over-preparing seen as such a negative? I'll never understand it. Cuomo was trying to prepare for the worst, seems to me like it was a smart move. And Cuomo is dealing with a massive population density problem, huge shortages in equipment and facilities, people still flooding the state from CT and NJ, people fleeing the state to CT and NJ, and everything else that goes with trying to run NY.
I think he's done a great job. Lots of people had projections that were wrong, now isn't the time to point fingers especially to those who stood up and demanded more supplies even if they go unused.
Well, it's refreshing how many political "non-political" statements keep popping up.
Meh, I mention Democrats Govs. who I though did great . Last I checked California has quite a few people living in it too. I get NYC is a bit more densely packed but I just think Cuomos done lousy compared to other very populated States. Just dont get all the praise heaped on him with such high infection numbers. I guess what I am saying is "political" but I am not saying Dems or Reps did this or that better , just that Cuomos imo has done an awful job compared to other Govs.
Cuomo is taking on a near impossible task due to the population density of NYC (something you can’t just shrug off), the insane travel in and out of state by car, train, and flight, and having to deal with closely neighboring states with different problems that bleed into his (and vice versatility).
I’m in CT and we have low numbers despite the relative density. Is that because our leadership is so much better? I don’t think so. Stamford is getting hit hard right now (it’s dense) and up the line it’s easing up which lessens the numbers.
Cuomo is taking on a near impossible task due to the population density of NYC (something you can’t just shrug off), the insane travel in and out of state by car, train, and flight, and having to deal with closely neighboring states with different problems that bleed into his (and vice versatility).
I’m in CT and we have low numbers despite the relative density. Is that because our leadership is so much better? I don’t think so. Stamford is getting hit hard right now (it’s dense) and up the line it’s easing up which lessens the numbers.
California has well over 2x the population of New York and 1/8 the amount of Covid cases. It is bigger yes , but clearly those numbers indicate Cali has done a far better job then New York by any metric. Also they were dealing with it before New York. But hey I only deal in reality. Keep making excuses for New Yorks very poor handing of the situation compared to a more populated state. Glad I have higher expectations for my State
Lol telling the President to chose the 26000 people to die over a non existant lack of ventilators is remaining calm ? Over estimating by 20000 plus ventilator needs is good communication? I am just glad to be in a different state away from that guys nonsense. But your right , one single state having more covid cases then any other country in the world is sure doing a bang up job. Well done Gov. party nips . I wish my state was doing as well as New Yorks "leadership". For the record my Governor is a Dem .
Lol telling the President to chose the 26000 people to die over a non existant lack of ventilators is remaining calm ? Over estimating by 20000 plus ventilator needs is good communication? I am just glad to be in a different state away from that guys nonsense. But your right , one single state having more covid cases then any other country in the world is sure doing a bang up job. Well done Gov. party nips . I wish my state was doing as well as New Yorks "leadership". For the record my Governor is a Dem and I dont live in Cali.
God forbid you listen to medical experts during a pandemic.
Just go back to how this all starts and spreads - human contact. Population density is everything. NYC has a population density 3.5x of LA. Do realize how much that matters?
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Presser about needing up to 40,000 ventilators and telling the President to "pick the 26,000 who will die " do to lack of ventilators did not age well . Peak usage seems to be projected now to be a little over 5000 . The President was maligned by nearly all the press when he dared say he thought those projections were too high. I have been very unimpressed with Cuomo throughout this whole process. Why are people saying he is so great when his state is doing far worse then any other state ? Seems other Governors have done much better , Newsome , Inslee or pretty much any Gov. has it under much better control. This is not a red or blue thing (I mention Democrats Govs. who I think did good) , I am just genuinely curious why so many posters thinks Governor party nips has done so great when his state is in way worse shape then any other by far ?
God forbid you listen to medical experts during a pandemic.
Funny you should mention that as the New York board of health recommended in a 2015 report to Cuomo to have 15000 ventilator units for the NYC area in the states stockpile for a pandemic response. His response was to just keep the 2000 odd ventilators they had and come up with a rationing system (death panel) for people needing them. That's why New York had so few Ventilators when this Covid hit and was whining to the federal government they needed to provide so many. Cuomo spent far more on boondoggle green energy projects then the 15000 ventilators would have cost. Look up the NY board of health 2015 report , it's all there. Have fun in clown world , honk , honk
Well yeah , NY and Connecticut are overtaxed , over priced and overcrowded shitholes . Who would ? Anyways I am out . Have fun with your states poorly planned pandemic response. Sorry your stuck there with such poor leadership. And hope you all make it out ok. Peace
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And I’m glad you don’t live here either.
Well yeah , NY and Connecticut are overtaxed , over priced and overcrowded shitholes . Who would ? Anyways I am out . Have fun with your states poorly planned pandemic response. Sorry your stuck there with such poor leadership. And hope you all make it out ok. Peace
Stop trying to get the thread deleted because you can't handle facts that bother you.
Joined 2019 and this is his first post. Loser dupe
Not to worry. Ol' Wally will bring the sheep and chickens.
Nice !!! LOL
Home to 49ers, Sharks, Stanford, etc.
Long way from here to there and everybody will be watching events unfold, but that's one operating assumption from a position of authority.
turkey talk - ( New Window )
We did this for my 85 year old grandmother on her birthday, their reasoning is it is going to get worse in 2 weeks..
Something to look into for anyone else in a similar situation, you just need 1 person there who can log in for them on a laptop (they all have cameras).
I just wanted to say that I'm very pleased with the way Virginia has handled this issue so far.
And this is anecdotal, but at least here in Richmond VA, it feels like people are still going out, while being safe, and supporting local business.
From my standpoint, that means ordering take out from the local restaurants we frequent, and having beer delivered from the breweries I like, even ordering records from my local record shop and picking them up curbside....
Just being smart and safe at the same time, while trying to keep the local businesses up and running. So far, so good.
Just curious to hear of any positive news?
Just curious to hear of any positive news?
A friend of my parents passed a few days ago after being on a ventilator for about week. He was also on dialysis for his kidneys. He seemed to be turning a corner (though that could have just been short-lived), and he was given hydroxychloroquine, and then shortly after, his heart just stopped.
Impossible to say (especially since I have such limited information) as to whether it was an adverse reaction to the hydroxychloroquine, or if he would have died anyway.
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...agreed. From both a safety and economic standpoint.
And this is anecdotal, but at least here in Richmond VA, it feels like people are still going out, while being safe, and supporting local business.
From my standpoint, that means ordering take out from the local restaurants we frequent, and having beer delivered from the breweries I like, even ordering records from my local record shop and picking them up curbside....
Just being smart and safe at the same time, while trying to keep the local businesses up and running. So far, so good.
It isn't close to sustainable. Call after call to the local radio station here are from the bar/restaurant industry. Most are done. Most these guys make money on alcohol sales from the heavy drinkers, myself included. I've been saving an unreal amount of money. Plus they are losing on all the people that generally eat out every meal, that can no longer afford to do so.
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However, are there any current updates on how treatments are going in NYC? Especially the Chloroquine(sp) with the Z Packs?
Just curious to hear of any positive news?
A friend of my parents passed a few days ago after being on a ventilator for about week. He was also on dialysis for his kidneys. He seemed to be turning a corner (though that could have just been short-lived), and he was given hydroxychloroquine, and then shortly after, his heart just stopped.
Impossible to say (especially since I have such limited information) as to whether it was an adverse reaction to the hydroxychloroquine, or if he would have died anyway.
Thanks for the info Paul
Sorry about your friends loss
I go to one of the guys who rents a chair, he's early to mid 20's and a wizard with the clippers.
they've been closed since mid-March when MA closed all non-essential businesses.
I saw the owner of the shop getting gas last week and he doesn't think they'll survive. He has a mortgage, kids, etc. - the other three don't.
So, before I left he asked me if I would go to his house for my next haircut - he's cutting hair in his garage because he has to make ends meet somehow. My wife put the kibosh on that one - she's in healthcare and said no way it's not likely sanitary enough and she didn't want me to risk it.
So I venmo-ed him some money just because I felt bad, but those are the types of businesses that may never recover from this - the three younger guys who rented chairs will need to find somewhere else and the owner has his house and business in jeopardy.
The airlines, hotel chains, chain restaurants, etc. will get bailed out, but the small bars, restaurants, barbers, hair and nail salons, etc. may not.
Between that and hopefully landlords having some compassion for the situation (and not wanting to have to find a mass of new tenants) I'm hopeful it won't end up as bad as it seems right now, but some are certainly going to go down.
The places doing well by me are the local bakery and a bunch of the restaurants (especially pizza places). My friend owns a high end running show store in CT and he's basically just treating this as a long vacation and doing some online or over the phone sales for clients that need stuff. His benefit is that his product doesn't go bad so he will be fine, he will just have to deal with a couple months of less profits.
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And I’m glad you don’t live here either.
Well yeah , NY and Connecticut are overtaxed , over priced and overcrowded shitholes . Who would ? Anyways I am out . Have fun with your states poorly planned pandemic response. Sorry your stuck there with such poor leadership. And hope you all make it out ok. Peace
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...agreed. From both a safety and economic standpoint.
And this is anecdotal, but at least here in Richmond VA, it feels like people are still going out, while being safe, and supporting local business.
From my standpoint, that means ordering take out from the local restaurants we frequent, and having beer delivered from the breweries I like, even ordering records from my local record shop and picking them up curbside....
Just being smart and safe at the same time, while trying to keep the local businesses up and running. So far, so good.
Construction continues to be active with the trades limited to one trade per jobsite (residential).
Just curious to hear of any positive news?
Most of the studies I have been reading about have not been positive. All the success stories I have seen thus far have been anecdotes about somebody’s cousin or something on social media. Still early though.
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However, are there any current updates on how treatments are going in NYC? Especially the Chloroquine(sp) with the Z Packs?
Just curious to hear of any positive news?
A friend of my parents passed a few days ago after being on a ventilator for about week. He was also on dialysis for his kidneys. He seemed to be turning a corner (though that could have just been short-lived), and he was given hydroxychloroquine, and then shortly after, his heart just stopped.
Impossible to say (especially since I have such limited information) as to whether it was an adverse reaction to the hydroxychloroquine, or if he would have died anyway.
Sorry to hear Paul. Serious heart issues has been one of the aide-effects I have read about with the Hydroxychloroquine. More studies need to be done before it gets handed out too liberally.
Barbershop is a business that will spring back quickly once allowed to do so, IMO.
I have heard people argue the gasoline nozzles are germ ridden. People can wear gloves, sanitize the nozzle, or wash their hands afterwards. Using the same logic, NJ should mandate grocery stores have someone push your cart around for you so you don't have to touch anything. Would that make sense?
I have heard people argue the gasoline nozzles are germ ridden. People can wear gloves, sanitize the nozzle, or wash their hands afterwards. Using the same logic, NJ should mandate grocery stores have someone push your cart around for you so you don't have to touch anything. Would that make sense?
fuck this noise.
I'll stay in my car and not touch anything other than my card passed through a crack in my window, thank you very much
Having someone else pump my gas always felt shitty anyway.
Have both self serve pumps and provide full serve for those that are elderly, handicap, or just lazy.
Having a law precluding someone from the pumping themselves is asinine. Some people complain about self serve checkouts at the grocery store. The beauty is you have the choice. It should be the same for gas.
Also, did you know it NJ it is legal to pump your own fuel if you have a diesel vehicle?
After weeks of telling people to not use masks as the health pros needed them Murphy is now telling store owners to not let anyone in without one. WTF are we doing!!
Sorry going a little stir crazey.
Especially for those who can’t maintain one.
In comment 14864480 fkap said:
Barbershop is a business that will spring back quickly once allowed to do so, IMO.
Barbershop is a business that will spring back quickly once allowed to do so, IMO.
Agree, in general.
It's been a month, but they extended MA school and non-essential business shutdown until May 4 (and most feel it's likely to be beyond that - to at least June 1), so he's probably doing the math about what another 4 - 8 weeks looks like.
I would be surprised if most small businesses could survive three months with zero income coming in and bills continuing to come due. not sure though since I'm not a business owner.
Would be pretty short sighted not to.
There is also a business interruption insurance, Wonder how that will play out. I can see the insurance companies invoking the act of God clause
Even being bald, my horseshoe hairline is getting out of control
Interesting, did not know that.
Presumably it is in place for illness to the people running the business, not the entire world. Either way it probably doesn’t pay out for this situation
"We will not pay for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any virus, bacterium or other microorganism that induces or is capable of inducing physical distress, illness or disease".
This is a standard clause in most business insurance policies.
If you haven't guessed I'm in the insurance business.
Did you submit an application or did you just raise your hand to get contacted once available? The application window is open to existing customers in at least 2 banks that I know of (1 of them being Chase the other being a smaller regional). I believe BoA too but not positive on that one.
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I applied for all the "loans" as soon as they became avail. and have only received emails saying will be contacted soon. Nothing else so far.
Did you submit an application or did you just raise your hand to get contacted once available? The application window is open to existing customers in at least 2 banks that I know of (1 of them being Chase the other being a smaller regional). I believe BoA too but not positive on that one.
I have a few friends that run small businesses (10-50 employees) and noone have been able to sniff fed money. Thet were told the loans were all gone and they applied at 10am release date. Tough out there for small businesses without connections.
"We will not pay for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any virus, bacterium or other microorganism that induces or is capable of inducing physical distress, illness or disease".
This is a standard clause in most business insurance policies.
If you haven't guessed I'm in the insurance business.
I’d say the insurance companies are pretty well covered then.
Interesting related story about Wimbolton actually having pandemic insurance.
Link - ( New Window )
Been passing on the news as much as possible, because much of it is incorrect and most of what is reported is only true until the next day. Even the experts are bamboozled.
But a couple of questions that crossed my mind:
1.) I have heard that many people(maybe more than those actually diagnosed) are asymptomatic, but carriers. Why is this and how could it be? Some people are dying horrible deaths while the majority walk around not even sniffling. And yes, while those with compromised conditions are the most vulnerable, many without health issues are dying.
2.) If you are are asymptomatic are you then carrying or producing sufficient antibodies to defeat the virus and does this make you immune? I have to assume that the virus is the virus(and there have been some reports of mutations). So why do the majority escape?
3.) If this thing is so contagious and deadly, as it appears to be, how will we ever be able to get back to normal until a vaccine is developed and the entire world (ala polio, smallpox) is vaccinated? While a vaccination diminishes the effects, you can still contract the disease as happens with the flu.
4.) The closest comparison I see is the Spanish Flu of 1918 where it ran through three waves of outbreaks over a year spring 1918 until spring 1919. Just read an article that said mortality rates were between 0.8% and 3.1%. The upper number appears to be about the same as COVID-19 in the US.
I do find it interesting that different states have different mortality rates, some significantly higher.(I take the reported deaths vs reported cases by each state to get my numbers) Why is that? From a data prospective, it would seem that the numbers should be close to being the same. I see 1.9% to 5.0% - that seems to be too big a range.
Anyway, an idle mind is a dangerous thing.
There has definitely been a flood of applications (which is why they are trying to increase the fed $) and who ends up getting it remains to be seen, just saying logistically I'd be very surprised if the banks have been able to move fast enough to give out most of it (I believe I saw on twitter today that at least 2/3 still hasn't been). Most of them didn't even have the guidance they needed to begin accepting applications this time last week.
Ha, i had the chemo at the right time in january. Bald as an eagle when this started
There are about 500k confirmed positives and 16k confirmed deaths but there's certainly a lot more positive unconfirmed cases out there, so the rates are highly dependent on the area of the country and the availability of testing.
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One less thing to worry about.
Ha, i had the chemo at the right time in january. Bald as an eagle when this started
I hope you are feeling better.
That’s just a guess though.
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In comment 14864564 Oscar said:
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One less thing to worry about.
Ha, i had the chemo at the right time in january. Bald as an eagle when this started
I hope you are feeling better.
Thanks Acid. Doing better each day. Just on extended lockdown since jan. Hoping this is over sooner rather than later
couple of weeks ago
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When did you apply?
couple of weeks ago
through the paycheck protection program or something else?
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In comment 14864694 Bubba said:
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When did you apply?
couple of weeks ago
through the paycheck protection program or something else?
We did it through my brother in law he works for bank of america in the city, we applied for 2 loans
My guess is that you would get referred to some shitty point of care/rapid tests. Once the real antibody tests roll out, they will likely be dedicated to either health care workers so that they can return to work after quarantine, testing recovered patients as blood donors for antibody transfer and for general surveillance. Real testing will be limited in terms of reagents and man power, so my best guess is point of care tests.
There are about 500k confirmed positives and 16k confirmed deaths but there's certainly a lot more positive unconfirmed cases out there, so the rates are highly dependent on the area of the country and the availability of testing.
To tell you the truth, I just have given up trying to follow this because of inaccurate reporting. But you are probably right that numbers are skewed from inconsistent testing in conjunction with the number of tests actually done. Plus add in the disturbing reports on just assigning deaths to COVID-19 without it necessarily being true. (I guess pathologists are overwhelmed and cannot check every death along with fear of contracting the virus themselves.)
Tell you how far behind I am, last I heard positives on testing was under 4%..
forgivable, just to get us through the next 2 months
Exactly. While they aren't helpful because they are obviously very after the fact, death totals are probably the only accurate info right now.
There have been 15k-20k deaths, so if we just use a 1% mortality rate for easy math as a baseline that means 1.5m-2m people were infected whenever those people got it about a month ago. If the mortality rate has been higher, fewer people were infected then, if it's lower more people are infected. I don't know for certain and I assume there are far more factors input into the models but I assume this is the general framework where the 1-5m total infections estimate comes from (also factoring in that the social distancing has helped slow the spread).
With the way we've seen how quickly the numbers can double, that's why it was critical to make the decision to shut down 1 month ago almost irrespective of whatever the true mortality rate is. Whatever it is it's high enough that if things had remained open 1 week longer, the doubling trend would have continued and with the system so taxed already the volume would have gotten even more overwhelming quickly. Things are bad now they would have quite literally been twice as bad if we'd waited 1 week longer.
It's also mind boggling that we are still lagging with testing after 4 weeks of most of the country being shut down. Some countries have still tested 2-3x as many people per pop as we have.
Tests per 1m/pop - ( New Window )
Less than 10% of the deaths of people under 50 are from people without health issues. The other 90+% have underlying health issues, and not just high blood pressure.
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1.) I have heard that many people(maybe more than those actually diagnosed) are asymptomatic, but carriers. Why is this and how could it be? Some people are dying horrible deaths while the majority walk around not even sniffling. And yes, while those with compromised conditions are the most vulnerable, many without health issues are dying.
Less than 10% of the deaths of people under 50 are from people without health issues. The other 90+% have underlying health issues, and not just high blood pressure.
Yeah not sure where he is getting that from. The few that have died under 40 with no apparent health conditions have been in the medical field getting bombarded with it.
Most american adults have one of those two.
Additionally, a kind of mesenchymal cell therapy currently on small scale trial use in Israel, under a "compassionate care" license, looks promising in early stages. Out of 6 critically ill patients receiving the cell therapy, 3 have recovered enough to be weaned from respirators, 4 have shown marked improvement, and 2 have has a reversal of underlying organ failure. Only one of the 6 showed no improvement whatsoever. The cell therapy works my modulating immune response to Covid-19.
Almost 10,000 cases have been documented, and 79 have passed away. That's less than a 1% mortality rate as it stands now and it will likely decline as testing becomes more widespread and as recoveries rise.
I'm having a harder time now getting demographic data on all the deaths - earlier, it appeared virtually all the deaths involved both advanced age AND underlying conditions.
Israel started practicing strict social isolation policies well before the US did. Both Bibi Netanyahu and Israel's health minister were determined Covid-19 positive some time ago.
Good news from Israel re Covid 19 - ( New Window )
Many COVID-19 Patients Are Dying From Cardiac Arrest - ( New Window )
Additionally, a kind of mesenchymal cell therapy currently on small scale trial use in Israel, under a "compassionate care" license, looks promising in early stages. Out of 6 critically ill patients receiving the cell therapy, 3 have recovered enough to be weaned from respirators, 4 have shown marked improvement, and 2 have has a reversal of underlying organ failure. Only one of the 6 showed no improvement whatsoever. The cell therapy works my modulating immune response to Covid-19.
Almost 10,000 cases have been documented, and 79 have passed away. That's less than a 1% mortality rate as it stands now and it will likely decline as testing becomes more widespread and as recoveries rise.
I'm having a harder time now getting demographic data on all the deaths - earlier, it appeared virtually all the deaths involved both advanced age AND underlying conditions.
Israel started practicing strict social isolation policies well before the US did. Both Bibi Netanyahu and Israel's health minister were determined Covid-19 positive some time ago. Good news from Israel re Covid 19 - ( New Window )
Thanks, Lou. That's very good news. I'm sure they're working on this as fast as they can.
I have been in practice a long time but even as I write this, it is taking a toll on me and the family. We will get through it but there will certainly be lingering long term effects.
There are a couple of points besides my usual science lesson that I wish to make.
We can not overestimate the damage to our society in terms of those who have lost employment. For many, these jobs will never return. We are so lucky in our family as my daughter is an accountant and my wife is an intensive care pharmacist so jobs are always there. In my dealing with families these days, besides the health issues remain how they will survive financially. It is very sad, and compassion and understanding are key things to insist on when surrounded as we are by these issues. Lend a hand, be a good neighbor, help an elderly person get groceries or get to an appointment etc. We must do these things as the quicker the psyche is repaired in our nation the faster we will heal.
Lastly, a more morbid request. All of you need to be clear about what your wishes would be if God forbid you were taken to hospital. Too many times recently, families have not been clear about resuscitation, what it is and what it means. It behooves all of us to have this conversation, as unpleasant as it is, because doctors should not be the ones taking the final decisions. It happens far too often that we must but this results from inadequate preparation by all of us when we sit and face our mortality. Please make sure your loved ones know your wishes and under what circumstances they should be respected. I am not trying to scare anyone but a dose of reality as we face this pandemic is important.
We are making progress albeit slowly. Everyone must continue to follow the rules and we will get through this in time. Till then be safe and tell those around you how much they mean to you, especially your children.
#COVID19 shoots from negligible near zero mortality cause, to the top US cause of daily death in 2020 - ( New Window )
I have been in practice a long time but even as I write this, it is taking a toll on me and the family. We will get through it but there will certainly be lingering long term effects.
There are a couple of points besides my usual science lesson that I wish to make.
We can not overestimate the damage to our society in terms of those who have lost employment. For many, these jobs will never return. We are so lucky in our family as my daughter is an accountant and my wife is an intensive care pharmacist so jobs are always there. In my dealing with families these days, besides the health issues remain how they will survive financially. It is very sad, and compassion and understanding are key things to insist on when surrounded as we are by these issues. Lend a hand, be a good neighbor, help an elderly person get groceries or get to an appointment etc. We must do these things as the quicker the psyche is repaired in our nation the faster we will heal.
Lastly, a more morbid request. All of you need to be clear about what your wishes would be if God forbid you were taken to hospital. Too many times recently, families have not been clear about resuscitation, what it is and what it means. It behooves all of us to have this conversation, as unpleasant as it is, because doctors should not be the ones taking the final decisions. It happens far too often that we must but this results from inadequate preparation by all of us when we sit and face our mortality. Please make sure your loved ones know your wishes and under what circumstances they should be respected. I am not trying to scare anyone but a dose of reality as we face this pandemic is important.
We are making progress albeit slowly. Everyone must continue to follow the rules and we will get through this in time. Till then be safe and tell those around you how much they mean to you, especially your children.
It’s just not possible to adequately expression the gratitude so many of us have for those of you on the front lines fighting this health crisis. Simply and with sincerity, thank you very much.
You’re right too about the economic wreckage. These are tough times and we all need to come together and do the most we can for those in need.
you catch the virus first In the stress on your system causes your heart to fail
#COVID19 shoots from negligible near zero mortality cause, to the top US cause of daily death in 2020 - ( New Window )
Dumb chart and post. You fucking contradict yourself.
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I know there are mixed opinions on these comparisons, and let's face it - no comparison is perfect, but it's pretty remarkable that within a month this thing became the leading daily cause of death for Americans. And without social distancing who knows how long that would have lasted. And unlike just about everything else on this list it was highly contagious.
#COVID19 shoots from negligible near zero mortality cause, to the top US cause of daily death in 2020 - ( New Window )
Dumb chart and post. You fucking contradict yourself.
You, on the other hand, reveal yourself.
Yet we still have far too many knuckleheads coming into our store, and going about their daily business, without face masks.
I asked the owner to post a sign insisting only people wearing masks can enter the store, but he refused.
Donkeys.
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I know there are mixed opinions on these comparisons, and let's face it - no comparison is perfect, but it's pretty remarkable that within a month this thing became the leading daily cause of death for Americans. And without social distancing who knows how long that would have lasted. And unlike just about everything else on this list it was highly contagious.
#COVID19 shoots from negligible near zero mortality cause, to the top US cause of daily death in 2020 - ( New Window )
Dumb chart and post. You fucking contradict yourself.
How is Eric contradicting himself and why are you so upset over a fucking chart?
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In comment 14864056 UConn4523 said:
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And I’m glad you don’t live here either.
Well yeah , NY and Connecticut are overtaxed , over priced and overcrowded shitholes . Who would ? Anyways I am out . Have fun with your states poorly planned pandemic response. Sorry your stuck there with such poor leadership. And hope you all make it out ok. Peace
Stop trying to get the thread deleted because you can't handle facts that bother you.
Joined 2019 and this is his first post. Loser dupe
I have been posting Anti Gettleman posts since I joined and draft observations , because he is an awful Gm and I am a Giants fan. But thanks for checking ,nanny.
The only thing I asked on this thread is why all the Cuomo worship when his States results have been so awful compared to other Govs? All I got was piling on from losers caught in the middle of the storm trying to rationalize their areas poor response. Keep wrapping your states population density stat around you like a warm blanket .Have fun watching the Andy and Chris snuggle time happy hour on CNN, and let Jim Acosta tuck you in.
I am not a dupe . Newsome an Inslee have handled this crisis well. Cuomo has been awful by any metric comparitivly (except feelings). I think Dems and Rep. GOVS have done well throughout this pandemic. Just not Cuomo for the reasons I mentioned. But whatever I am a dupe .
Again ,good luck to all Giants fans dealing with incompetent Governors and local leadership during the pandemic. I do not care that you have a Democrat or Republican as your Gov , as long as he isn't a Cuomo you'll probably be ok.
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In comment 14864065 WalterSobchak said:
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In comment 14864056 UConn4523 said:
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And I’m glad you don’t live here either.
Well yeah , NY and Connecticut are overtaxed , over priced and overcrowded shitholes . Who would ? Anyways I am out . Have fun with your states poorly planned pandemic response. Sorry your stuck there with such poor leadership. And hope you all make it out ok. Peace
Stop trying to get the thread deleted because you can't handle facts that bother you.
Joined 2019 and this is his first post. Loser dupe
I have been posting Anti Gettleman posts since I joined and draft observations , because he is an awful Gm and I am a Giants fan. But thanks for checking ,nanny.
The only thing I asked on this thread is why all the Cuomo worship when his States results have been so awful compared to other Govs? All I got was piling on from losers caught in the middle of the storm trying to rationalize their areas poor response. Keep wrapping your states population density stat around you like a warm blanket .Have fun watching the Andy and Chris snuggle time happy hour on CNN, and let Jim Acosta tuck you in.
I am not a dupe . Newsome an Inslee have handled this crisis well. Cuomo has been awful by any metric comparitivly (except feelings). I think Dems and Rep. GOVS have done well throughout this pandemic. Just not Cuomo for the reasons I mentioned. But whatever I am a dupe .
Again ,good luck to all Giants fans dealing with incompetent Governors and local leadership during the pandemic. I do not care that you have a Democrat or Republican as your Gov , as long as he isn't a Cuomo you'll probably be ok.
My God, your grammar is the level of a 5th grader you ignorant dickstain. There is no space before a comma, question mark, or a period. It's "State" not States when talking about Cuomo and if you're going to use states regarding a state's population in that context you need to apostrophe "state's. It's also spelled "Comparatively" you uneducated Dupe
Such an easy concept, that so many fail to grasp. I feel like I'm out in public watching people having a hard time with the simple notion of social distancing.
My only first hand experience is my two grandkids, 3rd grade and 12th. They have some home schooling, but not much. My impression is that they're only getting a partial learning of what would normally be taught.
Is everyone advancing minus a chunk of education?
How about colleges? I've heard a lot of it has gone online, but is all of it? Is it as effective?
Does graduation/passing come with a little asterisk that future employers might discriminate against?
I think I may have had it as well about a month ago. Same symptoms as you described. I wasn't sure if it was the hangover from hell from a large weekend bender at the Big 10 wrestling tournament at Rutgers. I was fine within a week but I'm a studly 33 year old specimen.
At my firm, I saw employee feedback of topics for executives to address, and the #1 question was "what's the plan for going to the office and when?" This was while NYC reported its highest single-day death count back-to-back and the virus began spreading in other cities. France has been on lockdown for months and still is reporting cases.
Talk about not seeing the forest from the trees. But people are stuck in their homes and want to go home. They should be asking how safe transit and the office will be when they do go back.
The goal has always been to control the initial surge and prevent the health care system from overloading. We seem to have achieved that (fingers crossed).
Now, we have to balance slowly bringing back the economy with managing the infection pandemic. Maintaining some/most of shelter in place while going back to work is going to be tough. Too many people are going to think life is normal and go back to close contact running all over town. This may not be tomorrow, but it will be someday.
This is a serious matter, everyone sees now it is. But, the plans to begin reopening society should be happening.
Parameters for reopen business, schools, everything. Plans for dealing with outbreaks with less full scorched Earth measures. Measurements for appropriate reopening, this is very important.
On some media shows I see supposed experts things can't return fully until a vaccine, or closures for up to a year. Could be devastating, is this needed in every zip code in the US?
I don't know the answers, but there has to be a plan for reopening.
My only first hand experience is my two grandkids, 3rd grade and 12th. They have some home schooling, but not much. My impression is that they're only getting a partial learning of what would normally be taught.
Is everyone advancing minus a chunk of education?
How about colleges? I've heard a lot of it has gone online, but is all of it? Is it as effective?
Does graduation/passing come with a little asterisk that future employers might discriminate against?
I teach at a HS on Long Island, we have been doing remote teaching since day 1. As for grades, the administration is still waiting for guidance from the state as to what to do. The 3rd quarter ended last week, and we still haven’t given them grades for it yet. My guess is that it will go to pass/fail for the rest of the year. The regents exams have already been cancelled.
On a related note, NYC schools are officially closed for the rest of the school year.
College kids are already used to and doing online courses and the majority of college work is self teaching anyway. You don’t need to hand in papers in person anymore and tests can be done online as well.
I don’t see the issue with education other than it being an inconvenience to parents that have to do it at home.
This is a serious matter, everyone sees now it is. But, the plans to begin reopening society should be happening.
Parameters for reopen business, schools, everything. Plans for dealing with outbreaks with less full scorched Earth measures. Measurements for appropriate reopening, this is very important.
On some media shows I see supposed experts things can't return fully until a vaccine, or closures for up to a year. Could be devastating, is this needed in every zip code in the US?
I don't know the answers, but there has to be a plan for reopening.
Without a vaccine, you have to have the following things:
1. Mass antibody and diagnostic testing on a scale far greater than what we currently have
2. An effective drug for treating the virus that reduces the death rate to something like the flu
3. Strict social distancing protocols and lots of sanitary supplies at workplaces on a scale far greater than what we currently have
4. People wearing masks outdoors
Again ,good luck to all Giants fans dealing with incompetent Governors and local leadership during the pandemic. I do not care that you have a Democrat or Republican as your Gov , as long as he isn't a Cuomo you'll probably be ok.
"no matter how overpriced, overcrowded, and overcuomo'd your shithole is I wish you luck"
+1
The only thing I asked on this thread is why all the Cuomo worship when his States results have been so awful compared to other Govs?
The reason why people are attacking you is because you're only looking at the numbers while completely dismissing any material difference between the states, while also not offering anything concrete whatsoever about what Cuomo neglected to do that other governors did, while *also* not recognizing that this story has not been completed yet.
TIA
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
I think Cuomo overruled DeBlasio on this. He’s not closing the schools at this point. Cuomo said it’s his call, not the mayors to make
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of the school year. But, I am surprised they made it now. I thought they would hold out a little longer. If it was at all feasible, opening even for just that last month could have been a real positive psychological boost.
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
I think Cuomo overruled DeBlasio on this. He’s not closing the schools at this point. Cuomo said it’s his call, not the mayors to make
.
restaraunts, gyms ane barbers remain closed..
probably do it in phases until evwrything back up..
sports no fans for awhile or limited entry
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In comment 14865495 Matt M. said:
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of the school year. But, I am surprised they made it now. I thought they would hold out a little longer. If it was at all feasible, opening even for just that last month could have been a real positive psychological boost.
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
I think Cuomo overruled DeBlasio on this. He’s not closing the schools at this point. Cuomo said it’s his call, not the mayors to make
Cuomo didn't really overrule DiBlasio. He perpetuated their ongoing pissing match. It is highly likely that Cuomo will end up parroting this decision in the next couple of days. He just felt the need to let everyone know it wasn't NYCs decision to make on its own...likely because DiBlasio didn't consult with Cuomo or the NYSSED, which would be wrong. These are just grown men acting like petulant children.
Cuomo also said he wanted to consult with jersey and connecticuit
For example, NYS last week announced the cancellation of June Regents exams. There are graduation requirements involving Regents exams. As such, the decision was made that any student enrolled in a Regents bearing course this school year will receive credit for the exam toward graduation if they pass the course. I expect a significant increase in the number of passing students. I am sure next year NYC, for example, will tout an increase in the graduation rate, which will have directly resulted from this policy. However, there will be no regard for how many graduates have jobs or are enrolled in college. Or, how many college enrollees can actually get through the first couple of years without significant remedial courses. This is par for the course under normal circumstances, so it it highly reasonable to expect even more of the same under these conditions.
I am sure we will see a number of inquiries into grade inflation by teachers/schools. I would not be surprised if schools try to enrolls students for exam bearing courses now, in hopes that it goes unnoticed. There will be allegations in the next year for certain.
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In comment 14865499 BigBlueShock said:
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In comment 14865495 Matt M. said:
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of the school year. But, I am surprised they made it now. I thought they would hold out a little longer. If it was at all feasible, opening even for just that last month could have been a real positive psychological boost.
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
I think Cuomo overruled DeBlasio on this. He’s not closing the schools at this point. Cuomo said it’s his call, not the mayors to make
Cuomo didn't really overrule DiBlasio. He perpetuated their ongoing pissing match. It is highly likely that Cuomo will end up parroting this decision in the next couple of days. He just felt the need to let everyone know it wasn't NYCs decision to make on its own...likely because DiBlasio didn't consult with Cuomo or the NYSSED, which would be wrong. These are just grown men acting like petulant children.
Cuomo also said he wanted to consult with jersey and connecticuit
He also may very well be 100% correct that it is his (or the SEDs) decision. But, the messaging could have been different and come across as more supportive.
TIA
For hand sanitizer, check with the small batch distilleries. Most have converted their vodka/gin distilling to making hand sanitizer. In most cases, their efforts are focused on supplying first responders and health care workers for free. But to offset their charitable efforts, they are selling the hand sanitizer to the public.
St. Augustine Distillery - ( New Window )
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
he was overruled for now
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of the school year. But, I am surprised they made it now. I thought they would hold out a little longer. If it was at all feasible, opening even for just that last month could have been a real positive psychological boost.
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
he was overruled for now
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In comment 14865495 Matt M. said:
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of the school year. But, I am surprised they made it now. I thought they would hold out a little longer. If it was at all feasible, opening even for just that last month could have been a real positive psychological boost.
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
he was overruled for now
The official word I. The DOE is still that schos are closed for the remainder of the yesr.
cuomo said today that no decision has been made past april 29th. He also said schools and businesses will be on the same timeline no one or the other
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In comment 14865537 CGiants07 said:
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In comment 14865495 Matt M. said:
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of the school year. But, I am surprised they made it now. I thought they would hold out a little longer. If it was at all feasible, opening even for just that last month could have been a real positive psychological boost.
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
he was overruled for now
The official word I. The DOE is still that schos are closed for the remainder of the yesr.
cuomo said today that no decision has been made past april 29th. He also said schools and businesses will be on the same timeline no one or the other
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In comment 14865542 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14865537 CGiants07 said:
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In comment 14865495 Matt M. said:
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of the school year. But, I am surprised they made it now. I thought they would hold out a little longer. If it was at all feasible, opening even for just that last month could have been a real positive psychological boost.
That said, at best, that scenario was highly unlikely.
he was overruled for now
The official word I. The DOE is still that schos are closed for the remainder of the yesr.
cuomo said today that no decision has been made past april 29th. He also said schools and businesses will be on the same timeline no one or the other
I hear that. I'm just passing on that the official word of the decision to close bas not been changed at the DOE. That may change in the next 24 hours or not. They may also compromise. I think it is unwise to treat schools and businesses the same. If thi is start to open in a month, let's say, it is easier for a business to manage a location than for the city to manage 1800 locations in case of individual new outbreaks.
its hard to make people choose between going to work or staying home watching there children instead of the daycare the school provides a lot of people.im guessing there will be a compromise where schools will open before june
TIA
Try Melaleuca for hand sanitizer. I've had no issues getting it from them.
Amani Toomer?
Thomas Lewis?
Mark Ingram?
Joe Jurevicius?
Brian Alford?
Bonus points: what do they all in common?
MSU
Penn St
Purdue??
All Big 10 Schools.
Link - ( New Window )
I bet those same people stood nose to neck in line.
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And they are completely out of Tonic. People are buying the crap out of it because it has Quinine (which is used to treat Malaria) and they think this will help if they get COVID.
I bet those same people stood nose to neck in line.
No doubt
In comment 14865656 Sonic Youth said:
Are you sure they're not all just impatient for warmer weather and the beginning of G&T season (or V&T if not serious about the whole thing)?
Why not add Mario Manningham to the list?
Jay Alford went to Penn State (the defensive tackle who sacked Brady at the end of SB 42). I think Brian Alford went to another Big 10 school
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def was Penn St. but big ten has to be the second answer
Jay Alford went to Penn State (the defensive tackle who sacked Brady at the end of SB 42). I think Brian Alford went to another Big 10 school
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And they are completely out of Tonic. People are buying the crap out of it because it has Quinine (which is used to treat Malaria) and they think this will help if they get COVID.
Are you sure they're not all just impatient for warmer weather and the beginning of G&T season (or V&T if not serious about the whole thing)?
Where have you read about early release for prisoners? In California?
That's the one I've heard of recently, and IIRC, the number (3,500?) was pretty small out of the entire population of folks imprisoned by the CDCR.
Anyway if it IS the California release "early" it's release of non-violent offenders as mandated by Prop 57 that was put into law 3 years ago... But enforced by the CDCR themselves! The law was passed basically because CA was in violation of Federal standards of prison overcrowding, partially or largely due to "3 strikes" convictions of drug addicts who committed victimless crimes...
Anyway the Feds came after CA and the CDCR because of rampant overcrowding. I mean the 6 foot rule is violated simply by the proximity of the bunks in CA prisons. They are often 2 high and less than 3 feet from each other...
Anyway for the first two years after the enactment of prop 57, something like ONE OF SEVEN prisoners who qualified for it on paper were actually granted it!
Because it's the profit earning CDCR that makes the decision about parole.
I doubt any prisoner is being released "early" relative to his or her right by law to BE released early - by legal statute.
In CA, the prison system is a corrupt bag of shite. It's a for profit system....
Will we ever know how many died in China? - ( New Window )
Ahem Torrag, that link is "news" broadcast by the Epoch Times, the media group founded and funded by the Falun Gong. It's hot propagandist garbage.
If it were paper, I wouldn't wipe my add with it.
You're quoting (or rather linking) them as a source?
Getouttahere!
Pretty depressing news.
Link - ( New Window )
Pretty depressing news. Link - ( New Window )
Regardless whether China is being truthful in their reporting, this was always going to persist until their is a vaccine. There never was going to be a single peak. As more and more of the population contracts and recovers from it, the subsequent peaks will be smaller in magnitude such that it shouldn't overwhelm the hospitals for those needing care. But we are all on this roller-coaster, and there is no getting off until a vaccine is developed.
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they say that China is concealing a new outbreak of Corona-19 related illness and that a new wave is already taking root and the pandemic will likely last into next year.
Pretty depressing news. Link - ( New Window )
Regardless whether China is being truthful in their reporting, this was always going to persist until their is a vaccine. There never was going to be a single peak. As more and more of the population contracts and recovers from it, the subsequent peaks will be smaller in magnitude such that it shouldn't overwhelm the hospitals for those needing care. But we are all on this roller-coaster, and there is no getting off until a vaccine is developed.
+1
Let's pray we see a viable vaccine by next season's outbreak window - October-November in the northern hemisphere?
Or sooner. It seems possible, at least, with the tools of molecular biology, 3D viral composition mapping, and so many of the world's top viral / immunology researchers striving for it.
Boris Johnson #StayHomeSaveLives - It is hard to find the words to express my debt to the NHS for saving my life. - ( New Window )
The only reason i'm pointing this out is that i want everyone to realize how serious this thing is. There are a lot of people i know who have lost parents and grandparents to this thing as well.
Take this shit seriously please. I'm sure everyone knows by now that this is highly contagious, and deadly as hell.
The only reason i'm pointing this out is that i want everyone to realize how serious this thing is. There are a lot of people i know who have lost parents and grandparents to this thing as well.
Take this shit seriously please. I'm sure everyone knows by now that this is highly contagious, and deadly as hell.
The only reason i'm pointing this out is that i want everyone to realize how serious this thing is. There are a lot of people i know who have lost parents and grandparents to this thing as well.
Take this shit seriously please. I'm sure everyone knows by now that this is highly contagious, and deadly as hell.
He was in a car wreck and had a collapsed lung. He was not "healthy". It was not all COVID's fault.
Sorry for you lost cjac.
The only reason i'm pointing this out is that i want everyone to realize how serious this thing is. There are a lot of people i know who have lost parents and grandparents to this thing as well.
Take this shit seriously please. I'm sure everyone knows by now that this is highly contagious, and deadly as hell.
My condolences. I am very sorry for the loss of your friend. RIP. God bless. Prayers to his family and friends.
Sorry for you lost cjac.
That wasn’t a lack of compassion. It’s a pretty fair assessment. He was healthy before he got in a car accident and had a collapsed lung and was then compromised.
That’s not a lack of compassion. Not everything needs to be taken personally and emotionally.
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show some compassion...
Sorry for you lost cjac.
That wasn’t a lack of compassion. It’s a pretty fair assessment. He was healthy before he got in a car accident and had a collapsed lung and was then compromised.
That’s not a lack of compassion. Not everything needs to be taken personally and emotionally.
You must be missing the part where cjac already said that though.
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In comment 14866145 UConn4523 said:
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show some compassion...
Sorry for you lost cjac.
That wasn’t a lack of compassion. It’s a pretty fair assessment. He was healthy before he got in a car accident and had a collapsed lung and was then compromised.
That’s not a lack of compassion. Not everything needs to be taken personally and emotionally.
You must be missing the part where cjac already said that though.
I read that. I think that despite saying that - the implication is that this can kill healthy people - which it obviously can - but the reader took issue with the fact that what it seemed to be implying, didn't apply to this situation. Again, it's nothing personal. No need for it to be personal. I guess this would be better left for an in person conversation.
Sorry cjac.
I'm very concerned about that. And recent social media incidents are troublesome to say the least...
People fucking suck.
People fucking suck.
All of that, but something else I can't say...
If there was anyone informed enough to decide to fire the person who is literally our leading expert in the field they certainly would not be focusing their efforts on a grass roots social media campaign as the means of doing so.
That horse left the barn.
If there was anyone informed enough to decide to fire the person who is literally our leading expert in the field they certainly would not be focusing their efforts on a grass roots social media campaign as the means of doing so.
"focusing their efforts" and "participating in by perpetuating" are two different things. And unfortunately, the latter is happening.
When has public policy not been influenced by the mob? Fauchi isn't going anywhere though. He is a massively popular figure, I wouldn't say a lot of people hold the firefauchi sentiment.
If there was anyone informed enough to decide to fire the person who is literally our leading expert in the field they certainly would not be focusing their efforts on a grass roots social media campaign as the means of doing so.
Bingo. I wouldn't be surprised if the death threats coming to Fauci where mostly from Russia.
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in most person's lives that public policy is being influenced by the mob. Is anyone else concerned about the #FireFauchi groundswell?
When has public policy not been influenced by the mob? Fauchi isn't going anywhere though. He is a massively popular figure, I wouldn't say a lot of people hold the firefauchi sentiment.
The number of people that hold it is less important than the relative power of those that do...
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In comment 14866773 Diver_Down said:
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in most person's lives that public policy is being influenced by the mob. Is anyone else concerned about the #FireFauchi groundswell?
When has public policy not been influenced by the mob? Fauchi isn't going anywhere though. He is a massively popular figure, I wouldn't say a lot of people hold the firefauchi sentiment.
The number of people that hold it is less important than the relative power of those that do...
It only takes one idiot.
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
I know a lot of mail has switched to electronic, but it would seem crazy to not have a daily mail service.
I know a lot of mail has switched to electronic, but it would seem crazy to not have a daily mail service.
I am afraid that's a conversation that will become immediately political, unfortunately.
I know a lot of mail has switched to electronic, but it would seem crazy to not have a daily mail service.
they're on the verge of bankruptcy perpetually.
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
My wife made a couple, people need to realize thiugh this is not protecting them, it is protrcting the people around you..
I see so many people walking around by thenselves outside wearing masks..
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you people getting masks for when you have to go out?
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
My wife made a couple, people need to realize thiugh this is not protecting them, it is protrcting the people around you..
I see so many people walking around by thenselves outside wearing masks..
yes, I understand, which is why I won't use an N95.
I also am surprised by the people wearing masks driving alone in their cars.
but the guidance we have, is wear something covering your nose and mouth when out in public.
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In comment 14866914 pjcas18 said:
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you people getting masks for when you have to go out?
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
My wife made a couple, people need to realize thiugh this is not protecting them, it is protrcting the people around you..
I see so many people walking around by thenselves outside wearing masks..
yes, I understand, which is why I won't use an N95.
I also am surprised by the people wearing masks driving alone in their cars.
but the guidance we have, is wear something covering your nose and mouth when out in public.
They wear it in the car because you should put it on when you leave the house and take if off when you return. You shouldn't keep putting it on and taking it off.
Because the mask can become contaminated. It should be washed if it's not disposable after being in public.
IOW, in your car don't wear it, but put it on before entering the grocery store, wear it in the store and dispose of it in the waste basket outside the store.
it's why they are finding so many masks in the shopping carts (and just thrown on the ground).
sanjay gupta had a youtube about how to handle masks, etc.
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
I've been making them. Sent out a large shipment last week to Texas. They promptly called me back and asked for another order. I'm working on them to be sent out Weds. I make a few styles. The one is more form fitting (duck-bill style) that is only 2 layers of high thread count cotton. I've made them with Giants fabric. The ones for Texas use the same high quality cotton and is the typical pleated surgical style. They have a pocket in the back where a filter can be inserted. Based on the recommendation of a pediatrician, I've been including the 3M Filtrete Elite Allergen 2200 Filtration (includes filtration of virus) filters.
Because the mask can become contaminated. It should be washed if it's not disposable after being in public.
IOW, in your car don't wear it, but put it on before entering the grocery store, wear it in the store and dispose of it in the waste basket outside the store.
it's why they are finding so many masks in the shopping carts (and just thrown on the ground).
sanjay gupta had a youtube about how to handle masks, etc.
I was under the impression, and maybe i'm wrong, that you wear a mask to protect other people from yourself, more than the intent to protect yourself.
and if everyone is wearing a mask when you're out, how is your mask going to get infected?
bottom line is i have a painters mask, i'm perfectly fine using that over and over.
but not everyone is wearing masks.
plus the virus can be on surfaces of products and throughout the place where you are and can get on the mask. This is especially true the way a lot of retail places are handling their glove use. I read the glove use can in fact helping the spread if the gloves are not changed (between customers and between handling of products - and they're not from what I've seen)
but not everyone is wearing masks.
plus the virus can be on surfaces of products and throughout the place where you are and can get on the mask. This is especially true the way a lot of retail places are handling their glove use. I read the glove use can in fact helping the spread if the gloves are not changed (between customers and between handling of products - and they're not from what I've seen)
Yes i went into an establishment the other day and was told to go get a mask (i had left it in my car) I wasnt really thinking at the moment.
I agree with you about the gloves thing, I think you're better off with no gloves and washing your hands and sanitizing. (along with not touching your face, which the mask will help with)
One issue I have with leaving them on the entire trip is that cloth masks/the cheap doctors masks only filter half the virus cells. I fear that leaving the mask on after I've been in a store and potentially contaminated means I'm breathing through it could suck in any cells that are on the cloth. Better to take it off and put on another. Really don't need one in your car, but it doesn't hurt, either.
Related to the removal of mask getting home, I've also seen recommendations to change clothes (in a slow, deliberate manner to minimize stirring up the cells), as they could be contaminated with the virus and you don't want to transfer it to furniture, etc, in your house.
Then wash your hands.
I guess that's a good enough reason to keep the social distancing rules intact for awhile.
Link - ( New Window )
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you people getting masks for when you have to go out?
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
I've been making them. Sent out a large shipment last week to Texas. They promptly called me back and asked for another order. I'm working on them to be sent out Weds. I make a few styles. The one is more form fitting (duck-bill style) that is only 2 layers of high thread count cotton. I've made them with Giants fabric. The ones for Texas use the same high quality cotton and is the typical pleated surgical style. They have a pocket in the back where a filter can be inserted. Based on the recommendation of a pediatrician, I've been including the 3M Filtrete Elite Allergen 2200 Filtration (includes filtration of virus) filters.
I hope you're using the Giants fabric for the ones you're sending to Texas!
A secondary benefit of the mask is if you are asymptomatic (or symptomatic and still out) then it reduces the spread of the virus.
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In comment 14866914 pjcas18 said:
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you people getting masks for when you have to go out?
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
I've been making them. Sent out a large shipment last week to Texas. They promptly called me back and asked for another order. I'm working on them to be sent out Weds. I make a few styles. The one is more form fitting (duck-bill style) that is only 2 layers of high thread count cotton. I've made them with Giants fabric. The ones for Texas use the same high quality cotton and is the typical pleated surgical style. They have a pocket in the back where a filter can be inserted. Based on the recommendation of a pediatrician, I've been including the 3M Filtrete Elite Allergen 2200 Filtration (includes filtration of virus) filters.
I hope you're using the Giants fabric for the ones you're sending to Texas!
No. The Giants fabric ones I have made for myself and sold on eBay. The Texas ones (first shipment) was mostly female targeted in fabric style. I included a few gender neutral masks and there was overwhelming demand for those. The shipment going out this week will be for males. The most difficult part is finding elastic. Stores are sold out and some people are using hair bands. I still have some elastic.
A secondary benefit of the mask is if you are asymptomatic (or symptomatic and still out) then it reduces the spread of the virus.
To add to your point on touching the face - the mask does create a barrier against the mouth/nose opening in the event someone does touch their face. Those that wear the masks are more aware of the behavior and are less likely to touch their face out of habit as opposed to those who do not wear a mask. It serves as a physical reminder to curb the behavior.
Yeah I would like that also
It's another indictment of our country for having such a limited supply of masks. Our country should have been mass producing masks for the last several months.
Not to go down a rabbit hole, but this doesn’t surprise me at all. This virus came from China, which is, I think indisputably, and at best, a brutal, oppressive totalitarian regime. They’ve lied about pretty much every aspect of this public health emergency. And then there’s the fact that the Chinese biowarfare lab, sorry, I mean the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which a BSL4 facility is located in the place where this virus started. I don’t mean to get all Alex Jones here, but China using a viral weapon, or just losing control of one isn’t a particularly outlandish idea to me.
On the other hand, there is some evidence that the virus is organic and not engineered. Not really sure that’s conclusive but it’s out there. For my money, the source isn’t as important now as the response.
Anyway, there’s people that believe Jesus and dinosaurs existed on earth at the same time (I just watched a movie about this called “We Believe in Dinosaurs” which you can stream on PBS). So, like I say, yeah, not surprised.
What is a BSL4 - ( New Window )
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believes the coronavirus was created in a lab even though it has been proven conclusively in multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies that its not true. Sigh...
Not to go down a rabbit hole, but this doesn’t surprise me at all. This virus came from China, which is, I think indisputably, and at best, a brutal, oppressive totalitarian regime. They’ve lied about pretty much every aspect of this public health emergency. And then there’s the fact that the Chinese biowarfare lab, sorry, I mean the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which a BSL4 facility is located in the place where this virus started. I don’t mean to get all Alex Jones here, but China using a viral weapon, or just losing control of one isn’t a particularly outlandish idea to me.
On the other hand, there is some evidence that the virus is organic and not engineered. Not really sure that’s conclusive but it’s out there. For my money, the source isn’t as important now as the response.
Anyway, there’s people that believe Jesus and dinosaurs existed on earth at the same time (I just watched a movie about this called “We Believe in Dinosaurs” which you can stream on PBS). So, like I say, yeah, not surprised. What is a BSL4 - ( New Window )
The evidence is conclusive and has appeared in leading scientific journals.
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In comment 14867005 Chris in Philly said:
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believes the coronavirus was created in a lab even though it has been proven conclusively in multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies that its not true. Sigh...
Not to go down a rabbit hole, but this doesn’t surprise me at all. This virus came from China, which is, I think indisputably, and at best, a brutal, oppressive totalitarian regime. They’ve lied about pretty much every aspect of this public health emergency. And then there’s the fact that the Chinese biowarfare lab, sorry, I mean the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which a BSL4 facility is located in the place where this virus started. I don’t mean to get all Alex Jones here, but China using a viral weapon, or just losing control of one isn’t a particularly outlandish idea to me.
On the other hand, there is some evidence that the virus is organic and not engineered. Not really sure that’s conclusive but it’s out there. For my money, the source isn’t as important now as the response.
Anyway, there’s people that believe Jesus and dinosaurs existed on earth at the same time (I just watched a movie about this called “We Believe in Dinosaurs” which you can stream on PBS). So, like I say, yeah, not surprised. What is a BSL4 - ( New Window )
The evidence is conclusive and has appeared in leading scientific journals.
I have never had an opinion either way on this topic, but can you share the conclusive sources on here?
Link - ( New Window )
Thanks. Good stuff, articles like this should be required reading. I think the overwhelming majority of people already believed this to be true.
I do think it was a very minuscule part of the population that believes this was a lab engineered and intentionally unleashed bio-weapon - like a tiny, tiny fringe element.
What I do think people believe though in MUCH larger quantities, toward China, factual or not, is that China learned about it before they claim, lied about it, covered it up, silenced the early whistle blowers and influenced the WHO to put out misleading or even untrue information.
That doesn't for one second change the fact that China has 100% lied at many turns of this thing, but I suppose they could say the same about us.
Was the question that the believe it was possible or that they fully believe it was made in a Chinese lab? Those are two distinctly different questions.
There has been legislation produced to save it but that has not been presented to the Senate.
It will certainly add to the difficulty of voting by mail.
That doesn't for one second change the fact that China has 100% lied at many turns of this thing, but I suppose they could say the same about us.
Believe it's possible or convinced that it was for sure made in a Chinese lab? Honestly, I believed it wasn't out of the realm of possibility until that Scripps link was posted. I still have questions though because its an article with no abstract linked. General consensus among academics seems to be its of a natural origin though.
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thing, and it's almost impossible to square their real life intelligence with that opinion.
That doesn't for one second change the fact that China has 100% lied at many turns of this thing, but I suppose they could say the same about us.
Believe it's possible or convinced that it was for sure made in a Chinese lab? Honestly, I believed it wasn't out of the realm of possibility until that Scripps link was posted. I still have questions though because its an article with no abstract linked. General consensus among academics seems to be its of a natural origin though.
The link to the actual article in Nature Medicine is literally right there in the opening sentence.
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believes the coronavirus was created in a lab even though it has been proven conclusively in multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies that its not true. Sigh...
Not to go down a rabbit hole, but this doesn’t surprise me at all. This virus came from China, which is, I think indisputably, and at best, a brutal, oppressive totalitarian regime. They’ve lied about pretty much every aspect of this public health emergency. And then there’s the fact that the Chinese biowarfare lab, sorry, I mean the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which a BSL4 facility is located in the place where this virus started. I don’t mean to get all Alex Jones here, but China using a viral weapon, or just losing control of one isn’t a particularly outlandish idea to me.
On the other hand, there is some evidence that the virus is organic and not engineered. Not really sure that’s conclusive but it’s out there. For my money, the source isn’t as important now as the response.
Anyway, there’s people that believe Jesus and dinosaurs existed on earth at the same time (I just watched a movie about this called “We Believe in Dinosaurs” which you can stream on PBS). So, like I say, yeah, not surprised. What is a BSL4 - ( New Window )
Sequencing makes it pretty clear that it's a spillover event and not a bioweapon.
That doesn't for one second change the fact that China has 100% lied at many turns of this thing, but I suppose they could say the same about us.
I guess being bio-weapon and being natural vs lab created are not mutually exclusive.
If you are inclined to believe such things, it could have very well been 100% natural and still in theory was allowed to become a "bio-weapon".
I'm not suggesting it, but if that facts came out to show prove that, I wouldn't find it unbelievable.
The link to the actual article in Nature Medicine is literally right there in the opening sentence.
Ah, must have glazed over it. I feel like a lot of times they don't link it in the introduction, but I may be wrong. The conclusion seems to be that most likely it is of natural origin though, not full proof 100 percent fact. Of course most things in science ever are, but unless this is different than past examples it's not. It's almost like the people that want to believe that reinfiction is likely with worse symptoms, even though most similar viruses that is generally not the case.
Well, you have an OANN "reporter" with a White House press credential and special invitation to the WH who literally ran a story suggesting/"investigating that Covid-19 was created in a lab... in North Carolina.
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believes the coronavirus was created in a lab even though it has been proven conclusively in multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies that its not true. Sigh...
Well, you have an OANN "reporter" with a White House press credential and special invitation to the WH who literally ran a story suggesting/"investigating that Covid-19 was created in a lab... in North Carolina.
Didn't they revoke their press privileges and they keep sneaking in anyway? I don't know if you saw that special on them, but if you get your news from someone that signs off saying "Because you know I'm telling you the facts, even when I'm not" they are way to gone anyway. This is such a minority of the population though. They have pretty much taken what cable news does, reporting the "facts" that whatever their viewership wants to believe, to just a whole other level.
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In comment 14867005 Chris in Philly said:
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believes the coronavirus was created in a lab even though it has been proven conclusively in multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies that its not true. Sigh...
Well, you have an OANN "reporter" with a White House press credential and special invitation to the WH who literally ran a story suggesting/"investigating that Covid-19 was created in a lab... in North Carolina.
Didn't they revoke their press privileges and they keep sneaking in anyway? I don't know if you saw that special on them, but if you get your news from someone that signs off saying "Because you know I'm telling you the facts, even when I'm not" they are way to gone anyway. This is such a minority of the population though. They have pretty much taken what cable news does, reporting the "facts" that whatever their viewership wants to believe, to just a whole other level.
The WHCA banned them because they were not abiding by social distancing rotation policies. But the administration invites them back anyway. They are a horrible “network”...
I think China could have done a way better job limiting or banning travel from their country, but it was up to the rest of the worlds leaders to take the initial info provided n act accordingly, and I think the ball was dropped by all...
Thoughts???
Great thread by the way, been following daily since the beginning, lots valuable info n a variety of opinions, really enjoyed Rocco’s early take n I believe, Mcl’s???, among others...
https://youtu.be/BGLGzRXY5Bw
Just a little music to lighten the mood!!! Cuz if you’re carrying a pic of chairmen Mao your not gonna make it with anyone anyhow...
How are people supposed to socially distance on commuter rail, subway or a bus? It can’t be done. Particularly on the subway where it’s just normal to be crammed in like sardines at rush hour. You’re lucky if you get six inches, forget six feet.
So how do people get to work? Or get anywhere for that matter.
So how do people get to work?
Good question.
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thing, and it's almost impossible to square their real life intelligence with that opinion.
That doesn't for one second change the fact that China has 100% lied at many turns of this thing, but I suppose they could say the same about us.
Believe it's possible or convinced that it was for sure made in a Chinese lab? Honestly, I believed it wasn't out of the realm of possibility until that Scripps link was posted. I still have questions though because its an article with no abstract linked. General consensus among academics seems to be its of a natural origin though.
100% Convinced - I'm talking about a really smart (and well known) business leader who fully believes.
Even with all the articles I'd never say anything is impossible.
How are people supposed to socially distance on commuter rail, subway or a bus? It can’t be done. Particularly on the subway where it’s just normal to be crammed in like sardines at rush hour. You’re lucky if you get six inches, forget six feet.
So how do people get to work? Or get anywhere for that matter.
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
We haven't been able to find N95 masks anywhere, in person or online.
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In comment 14866914 pjcas18 said:
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you people getting masks for when you have to go out?
making them? Bandana? website?
my wife is in healthcare, so she has some but I am not taking any of those for my family personal use, too important she has one, and they're different anyway, hers are the N95 masks, which we don't need from what I have read.
My wife made a couple, people need to realize thiugh this is not protecting them, it is protrcting the people around you..
I see so many people walking around by thenselves outside wearing masks..
yes, I understand, which is why I won't use an N95.
I also am surprised by the people wearing masks driving alone in their cars.
but the guidance we have, is wear something covering your nose and mouth when out in public.
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How are people supposed to socially distance on commuter rail, subway or a bus? It can’t be done. Particularly on the subway where it’s just normal to be crammed in like sardines at rush hour. You’re lucky if you get six inches, forget six feet.
So how do people get to work?
Good question.
hopefully there will be antibody testing so you can know if you have had it and are probably protected
That science article posted above is interesting, but one of its main conclusions to me is that if someone made this in a lab, they would have used existing known corona viruses as a basis. What if a lab was sampling and testing viruses from bats and other animals and through incompetence, not malfeasance, leaked something out. The fuck up of all fuck ups? I read also that there is a leading scientist in China known as the "bat lady" who has led cutting edge research on corona viruses since SARS I. They have gone into caves and grabbed bats to test, is that that far fetched something got loose?
Again, I personally do not believe the theory and as stated its a bold claim requiring real evidence.
You know what would help squelch rumors like this? Full transparency from the CCP, that will never happen though. They booted out US reporters and certainly have hid the true numbers. This thing is 100K strong in NYC, and they had 83K in all of China. Something seems off about that.
How about a tale of two systems? For all the faults of the US and other free countries, if a novel virus broke out here, the doctors and scientists who discovered it would be lauded as heros, they and their facilities would be recognized and given awards in their fields, books would be written, maybe movie deals grants to leading experts on the case and so on. The world would have gotten an earlier jump on this and perhaps there is no pandemic at all?
That is in an open system, under CCP rule it seems the first doctors to raise concern were threatened and forced to sign those communist I am a rumor mongerer loyalty oaths. There is one famous example of a opthamologist who raised an alarm and I believe died of the disease. Now, the CCP has named him a martyr for the people, initially he was labeled a threat to the state. This would not happen in a free society.
Sadly, they have become less informative and more of a Kiss The Ring ceremony. Anyone who claims the emperor has no clothes is quickly shouted down. Who would have thought that citizens who tuned in were treated to a propaganda video produced by taxpayer paid government employees? By the way, Montana, check your email.
Mine too.
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Are at the point of being unwatchable
Sadly, they have become less informative and more of a Kiss The Ring ceremony. Anyone who claims the emperor has no clothes is quickly shouted down. Who would have thought that citizens who tuned in were treated to a propaganda video produced by taxpayer paid government employees? By the way, Montana, check your email.
Nothing in there DD
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Are at the point of being unwatchable
Sadly, they have become less informative and more of a Kiss The Ring ceremony. Anyone who claims the emperor has no clothes is quickly shouted down. Who would have thought that citizens who tuned in were treated to a propaganda video produced by taxpayer paid government employees? By the way, Montana, check your email.
Kiss the ring? a CBS reporter asked Dr. Fauci if he was being forced to clarify his "push back" comment - which was really plastered all over all forms of media since the Tapper interview.
Dr. Fauci's reaction was enough of a rebuke IMO.
yes these press conferences are total shit shows, but it's not just because of "kiss the ring", it's because the media is like a dog on a bone looking for a "gotcha" moment so it immediately puts the people running the conference on the defensive.
it's sad to watch, on many levels.
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In comment 14867441 montanagiant said:
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Are at the point of being unwatchable
Sadly, they have become less informative and more of a Kiss The Ring ceremony. Anyone who claims the emperor has no clothes is quickly shouted down. Who would have thought that citizens who tuned in were treated to a propaganda video produced by taxpayer paid government employees? By the way, Montana, check your email.
Kiss the ring? a CBS reporter asked Dr. Fauci if he was being forced to clarify his "push back" comment - which was really plastered all over all forms of media since the Tapper interview.
Dr. Fauci's reaction was enough of a rebuke IMO.
yes these press conferences are total shit shows, but it's not just because of "kiss the ring", it's because the media is like a dog on a bone looking for a "gotcha" moment so it immediately puts the people running the conference on the defensive.
it's sad to watch, on many levels.
Didn't know my eyes could roll this hard. Yeah, definitely not about "kissing the ring", all the media's fault.
For fuck's sake, do you actually believe that? A "gotcha" moment? That's what you think led to the propaganda tape?
What Dr. Fauci said was incredibly obvious and rooted in fact. Too bad it pissed off the one person who has never once accepted blame or criticism. But yep, def media gotcha's not kissing the ring.
People were calling these press conferences dressed up campaign rallies and propaganda sessions - now, the pretense has literally been dropped.
Did you watch the press conference and hear his explanation?
My guess is no, but you will wait for CNN or MSNBC to tell you how you should feel about it to form your opinion. Because you are a coin operated lemming.
Fauci has been consistent and he reiterated it today, not one of his recommendations has been ignored. Not one. He explained today the "push back" he referred to with Jake Tapper.
Is it the states or the federal government?
I don't think it makes sense for either to act unilaterally, I think it has to be in concert with each other, but I don't know constitutionally where it lies, I assume states, but this is a national state of emergency, so what if a state that is lightly hit "opens" but the federal government wants to impose national standards for things like air travel, interstate commerce, etc.
Each state should do what is right and in the best interest of their state, but someone has to be looking out for the country as a whole, so I don't think it's going to be the pissing match the reporters tried to make it seem like.
Strange times, a lot of people think they know, but I'm not sure who really knows.
I agree, and I think the regional "conglomerates" being formed make sense. NY, CT, RI and MA (and NJ?) are all meeting to coordinate their response.
But I also feel like Federal has to play a role.
CDC, NIH, HHS, FEMA, etc. need to be involved I would think.
I expect, like most people, a gradual re-opening, so my assumption is there will probably be new standards or guidelines. Maybe from the federal level.
yep, our replies just crossed. I think there is a West Coast one too.
My only answer will be did you watch the Jake Tapper interview with Fauci? and if so, and you watched today's press conference, it will make sense.
I'm not going to pursue this particular topic any further. People get too emotional.
In almost 15 years here I never had one complaint, apparently my use of the word "administration" was just too much for someone earlier in this thread and they felt so hurt or triggered they had to email the site moderators to complain about by posts.
What is interesting is Cuomo is constantly praised here which I find very strange and telling. Why is Cuomo not vilified for not taken action sooner? Was he pressuring Trump to shut things down or why did he not take the initiative? Both he and Diblasio were telling NYer's to party it up in March. I hope he has a better plan for opening things up again then what his plan was to handle the virus.
Why did the NJ governor not take action and cut off NY from NJ? Same for the Pennsylvania and Connecticut governors allowing cross state transportation. The governor probably most decisive was the Illinois governor.
The states should control how things are reopened. They know (at least they should) the ins and outs of everything.
I think the even bigger question is how much Federal money the States are going to get. If they know a bailout is coming they will be more conservative. I believe this will be a big fight moving forward.
Did you watch the press conference and hear his explanation?
My guess is no, but you will wait for CNN or MSNBC to tell you how you should feel about it to form your opinion. Because you are a coin operated lemming.
Fauci has been consistent and he reiterated it today, not one of his recommendations has been ignored. Not one. He explained today the "push back" he referred to with Jake Tapper.
Yes, i'm the coin operated lemming. And you're the one telling me these aren't kiss the ring ceremonies. Who's the lemming?
Fauchi's can be as indignant as he wants, what he said was totally true - earlier lockdown would have prevented more deaths.
But sure, it's Jake Tapper's fault. And the "media". Newsflash: this wasn't the first conference that was like this.
It's not just the reporters, but they certainly share in the blame. Denying that would be curious, but whatever.
It's just laughable to think that ego-protection isn't a pre-requisite for any public messaging. Stop insulting my intelligence.
What is interesting is Cuomo is constantly praised here which I find very strange and telling. Why is Cuomo not vilified for not taken action sooner? Was he pressuring Trump to shut things down or why did he not take the initiative? Both he and Diblasio were telling NYer's to party it up in March. I hope he has a better plan for opening things up again then what his plan was to handle the virus.
Why did the NJ governor not take action and cut off NY from NJ? Same for the Pennsylvania and Connecticut governors allowing cross state transportation. The governor probably most decisive was the Illinois governor.
The states should control how things are reopened. They know (at least they should) the ins and outs of everything.
I think the even bigger question is how much Federal money the States are going to get. If they know a bailout is coming they will be more conservative. I believe this will be a big fight moving forward.
Probably bc his press conferences aren't filled with self aggrandizing, self congratulation, attacking political enemies, fighting with the press, and don't contain propaganda videos. They're, you know, actual updates.
What is interesting is Cuomo is constantly praised here which I find very strange and telling. Why is Cuomo not vilified for not taken action sooner? Was he pressuring Trump to shut things down or why did he not take the initiative? Both he and Diblasio were telling NYer's to party it up in March. I hope he has a better plan for opening things up again then what his plan was to handle the virus.
Why did the NJ governor not take action and cut off NY from NJ? Same for the Pennsylvania and Connecticut governors allowing cross state transportation. The governor probably most decisive was the Illinois governor.
The states should control how things are reopened. They know (at least they should) the ins and outs of everything.
I think the even bigger question is how much Federal money the States are going to get. If they know a bailout is coming they will be more conservative. I believe this will be a big fight moving forward.
I also watched the Fauci interview live, and I was stunned at the spin. Sure he said those words but it was clear what he was really saying (or trying to). But CNN just wanted a soundbite they could exploit.
I am so-so on Trump, but my point here is the media is absolutely knee deep in this with Trump. They are both to blame.
the video showed the rough timeline and even showed the media not fully grasping the extent of what is about to hit us.
It seems like everyone is out for the headline "20,000+ lives were lost because of failure to..."
I don't see how that is productive, but make no mistake people are thirsty for it. I bet some have even run with it.
In one press conference a week or ten days ago an NBC reporter actually asked "how many dead is acceptable?"
That is clearly an antagonistic question, almost as bad as asking Dr. Fauci today if he was being forced to clarify his Jake Tapper interview comments. They are not intellectually honest questions. They are agenda driven questions.
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I agree with you mostly. I heard Fauci yesterday for that interview. The reporter kept asking the same question in different ways until Fauci finally said of course less people would die if mitigation was sooner (that's common sense.) Everyone knows that. Yes, Fauci said Trump asks him a lot questions but in the end he has never gone against his recommendations.
What is interesting is Cuomo is constantly praised here which I find very strange and telling. Why is Cuomo not vilified for not taken action sooner? Was he pressuring Trump to shut things down or why did he not take the initiative? Both he and Diblasio were telling NYer's to party it up in March. I hope he has a better plan for opening things up again then what his plan was to handle the virus.
Why did the NJ governor not take action and cut off NY from NJ? Same for the Pennsylvania and Connecticut governors allowing cross state transportation. The governor probably most decisive was the Illinois governor.
The states should control how things are reopened. They know (at least they should) the ins and outs of everything.
I think the even bigger question is how much Federal money the States are going to get. If they know a bailout is coming they will be more conservative. I believe this will be a big fight moving forward.
I also watched the Fauci interview live, and I was stunned at the spin. Sure he said those words but it was clear what he was really saying (or trying to). But CNN just wanted a soundbite they could exploit.
I am so-so on Trump, but my point here is the media is absolutely knee deep in this with Trump. They are both to blame.
This is what happens when priority #1 is not hurting an ego.
Even after hearing Fauci clarify it today, very clearly.
I suggest you read the transcript of the press conference is there is one, if you didn't hear his clarification.
Fauci's tone with the press today should exemplify my point, if you believe Fauci is being honest.
and how do you think people would of reacted if he shut down the country with 15 confirmed cases? people would of said F you
I mean obviously governors are going to have access to good info and experts, but I think there's likely a huge gap in how much real time info they get to see and how much sway they have when it comes to federal programs like testing development or national security info. The heads of the CIA, CDC, FDA, etc aren't their direct reports and I'd imagine they aren't giving them daily briefings.
the video showed the rough timeline and even showed the media not fully grasping the extent of what is about to hit us.
It seems like everyone is out for the headline "20,000+ lives were lost because of failure to..."
I don't see how that is productive, but make no mistake people are thirsty for it. I bet some have even run with it.
In one press conference a week or ten days ago an NBC reporter actually asked "how many dead is acceptable?"
That is clearly an antagonistic question, almost as bad as asking Dr. Fauci today if he was being forced to clarify his Jake Tapper interview comments. They are not intellectually honest questions. They are agenda driven questions.
I had a longer post written out, but after revisiting yours, I just want to make clear what you're saying:
Propaganda videos during allegedly "informational" updates about a global pandemic that has caused tens of times as many deaths as 9/11 "had a purpose". Especially coming from the administration of, and directly from, the man who said "we have 15, soon to be 0", who's initial concern about the virus has been well documented in NYT articles with primary source emails of concerned admin officials ('fake news', right?), and who literally had his admin lie about something as inconsequential and stupid as inauguration crowd size on the first day of his presidency (soon to be followed with alternative facts).
I agree with you - that propaganda video sure as fuck had a "purpose".
If this gets me banned, so fucking be it. Stop putting lipstick on what is so fucking obviously a pig.
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I agree with you mostly. I heard Fauci yesterday for that interview. The reporter kept asking the same question in different ways until Fauci finally said of course less people would die if mitigation was sooner (that's common sense.) Everyone knows that. Yes, Fauci said Trump asks him a lot questions but in the end he has never gone against his recommendations.
What is interesting is Cuomo is constantly praised here which I find very strange and telling. Why is Cuomo not vilified for not taken action sooner? Was he pressuring Trump to shut things down or why did he not take the initiative? Both he and Diblasio were telling NYer's to party it up in March. I hope he has a better plan for opening things up again then what his plan was to handle the virus.
Why did the NJ governor not take action and cut off NY from NJ? Same for the Pennsylvania and Connecticut governors allowing cross state transportation. The governor probably most decisive was the Illinois governor.
The states should control how things are reopened. They know (at least they should) the ins and outs of everything.
I think the even bigger question is how much Federal money the States are going to get. If they know a bailout is coming they will be more conservative. I believe this will be a big fight moving forward.
I also watched the Fauci interview live, and I was stunned at the spin. Sure he said those words but it was clear what he was really saying (or trying to). But CNN just wanted a soundbite they could exploit.
I am so-so on Trump, but my point here is the media is absolutely knee deep in this with Trump. They are both to blame.
It is sad how the media operates. I hate the direction that they are taking being influencers and not just reporting.
and how do you think people would of reacted if he shut down the country with 15 confirmed cases? people would of said F you
The city wasn't shut down in January. It was shut down in mid/early March. It was pretty apparent what the risk was before mid/early March.
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In comment 14867500 Lines of Scrimmage said:
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I agree with you mostly. I heard Fauci yesterday for that interview. The reporter kept asking the same question in different ways until Fauci finally said of course less people would die if mitigation was sooner (that's common sense.) Everyone knows that. Yes, Fauci said Trump asks him a lot questions but in the end he has never gone against his recommendations.
What is interesting is Cuomo is constantly praised here which I find very strange and telling. Why is Cuomo not vilified for not taken action sooner? Was he pressuring Trump to shut things down or why did he not take the initiative? Both he and Diblasio were telling NYer's to party it up in March. I hope he has a better plan for opening things up again then what his plan was to handle the virus.
Why did the NJ governor not take action and cut off NY from NJ? Same for the Pennsylvania and Connecticut governors allowing cross state transportation. The governor probably most decisive was the Illinois governor.
The states should control how things are reopened. They know (at least they should) the ins and outs of everything.
I think the even bigger question is how much Federal money the States are going to get. If they know a bailout is coming they will be more conservative. I believe this will be a big fight moving forward.
I also watched the Fauci interview live, and I was stunned at the spin. Sure he said those words but it was clear what he was really saying (or trying to). But CNN just wanted a soundbite they could exploit.
I am so-so on Trump, but my point here is the media is absolutely knee deep in this with Trump. They are both to blame.
It is sad how the media operates. I hate the direction that they are taking being influencers and not just reporting.
Not my words, his. Maybe, just MAYBE, his positions aren't consistent?
and how do you think people would of reacted if he shut down the country with 15 confirmed cases? people would of said F you
I believe Fauci made that comment prior to it being know that there was asymptomatic spreading (which I believe happened either right at the end of January or beginning of February). I don't know the exact date that was discovered but I've heard it referenced that was only discovered 6 weeks prior to when we went on lockdown.
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How is it a "gotcha moment" when his own words are being quoted back to him?
My only answer will be did you watch the Jake Tapper interview with Fauci? and if so, and you watched today's press conference, it will make sense.
I'm not going to pursue this particular topic any further. People get too emotional.
In almost 15 years here I never had one complaint, apparently my use of the word "administration" was just too much for someone earlier in this thread and they felt so hurt or triggered they had to email the site moderators to complain about by posts.
Yeah that's BS anyone reported you. I told you when we had an earlier discussion I got inundated with donation requests that someone signed me up for. You haven't done anything to have that happen.
My take on Fauci is we had a certain someone retweet a tweet calling for him to be fired. At this point in this crisis, we need voices from all spectrums to make smart decisions and I think he realizes that and therefore wants to just get along
and how do you think people would of reacted if he shut down the country with 15 confirmed cases? people would of said F you
not just late January. late February.
This was Dr. Fauci's quote from Saturday February 29th on the Today Show:
Alexander: "So, Dr. Fauci, it’s Saturday morning in America. People are waking up right now with real concerns about this. They want to go to malls and movies, maybe the gym as well. Should we be changing our habits and, if so, how?"
Fauci: "No. Right now, at this moment, there’s no need to change anything that you’re doing on a day by day basis. Right now the risk is still low, but this could change. I’ve said that many times even on this program. You’ve got to watch out because although the risk is low now, you don’t need to change anything you’re doing. When you start to see community spread, this could change and force you to become much more attentive to doing things that would protect you from spread."
Trump responses over this time frame?
I'm sure his own tweets are 'fake news' and 'radical leftists' and 'enemy of the people' news media
Link - ( New Window )
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video was self serving and a waste of time, but it had a purpose, the press, politicians, and celebrities keep harping on "why didn't you act sooner" and "you have blood on your hands" and accusing him of not following the science and being only concerned with the economy.
the video showed the rough timeline and even showed the media not fully grasping the extent of what is about to hit us.
It seems like everyone is out for the headline "20,000+ lives were lost because of failure to..."
I don't see how that is productive, but make no mistake people are thirsty for it. I bet some have even run with it.
In one press conference a week or ten days ago an NBC reporter actually asked "how many dead is acceptable?"
That is clearly an antagonistic question, almost as bad as asking Dr. Fauci today if he was being forced to clarify his Jake Tapper interview comments. They are not intellectually honest questions. They are agenda driven questions.
I had a longer post written out, but after revisiting yours, I just want to make clear what you're saying:
Propaganda videos during allegedly "informational" updates about a global pandemic that has caused tens of times as many deaths as 9/11 "had a purpose". Especially coming from the administration of, and directly from, the man who said "we have 15, soon to be 0", who's initial concern about the virus has been well documented in NYT articles with primary source emails of concerned admin officials ('fake news', right?), and who literally had his admin lie about something as inconsequential and stupid as inauguration crowd size on the first day of his presidency (soon to be followed with alternative facts).
I agree with you - that propaganda video sure as fuck had a "purpose".
If this gets me banned, so fucking be it. Stop putting lipstick on what is so fucking obviously a pig.
I want to discuss this with you, but you seem very emotional.
I am not defending the press conferences, they are shit shows. I think they could be useful, but they're mostly not (I'd say 15% - 25% useful, 75-85% not), and I don't see them as kiss the ring ceremonies. No one is kissing a ring.
the video was meant to show media lies, inconsistent reporting, and selective "journalism". That was the purpose. And it did.
It had no place in a press conference that should be used to inform people.
but my sense is after the Tapper interview quote was exploited, and it absolutely was, the video was the response.
Just explaining it, not defending it.
That is someone who hates the president and everyone thinks is doing a great job including myself...
Trump responses over this time frame?
I'm sure his own tweets are 'fake news' and 'radical leftists' and 'enemy of the people' news media Link - ( New Window )
what is your point? Clearly the impact was underestimated, and the commentary matches that. Who denies that? Has someone on here defended any of those comments?
Not sure what point you are trying to make.
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In comment 14867523 pjcas18 said:
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video was self serving and a waste of time, but it had a purpose, the press, politicians, and celebrities keep harping on "why didn't you act sooner" and "you have blood on your hands" and accusing him of not following the science and being only concerned with the economy.
the video showed the rough timeline and even showed the media not fully grasping the extent of what is about to hit us.
It seems like everyone is out for the headline "20,000+ lives were lost because of failure to..."
I don't see how that is productive, but make no mistake people are thirsty for it. I bet some have even run with it.
In one press conference a week or ten days ago an NBC reporter actually asked "how many dead is acceptable?"
That is clearly an antagonistic question, almost as bad as asking Dr. Fauci today if he was being forced to clarify his Jake Tapper interview comments. They are not intellectually honest questions. They are agenda driven questions.
I had a longer post written out, but after revisiting yours, I just want to make clear what you're saying:
Propaganda videos during allegedly "informational" updates about a global pandemic that has caused tens of times as many deaths as 9/11 "had a purpose". Especially coming from the administration of, and directly from, the man who said "we have 15, soon to be 0", who's initial concern about the virus has been well documented in NYT articles with primary source emails of concerned admin officials ('fake news', right?), and who literally had his admin lie about something as inconsequential and stupid as inauguration crowd size on the first day of his presidency (soon to be followed with alternative facts).
I agree with you - that propaganda video sure as fuck had a "purpose".
If this gets me banned, so fucking be it. Stop putting lipstick on what is so fucking obviously a pig.
I want to discuss this with you, but you seem very emotional.
I am not defending the press conferences, they are shit shows. I think they could be useful, but they're mostly not (I'd say 15% - 25% useful, 75-85% not), and I don't see them as kiss the ring ceremonies. No one is kissing a ring.
the video was meant to show media lies, inconsistent reporting, and selective "journalism". That was the purpose. And it did.
It had no place in a press conference that should be used to inform people.
but my sense is after the Tapper interview quote was exploited, and it absolutely was, the video was the response.
Just explaining it, not defending it.
I AM emotional. I've lost my job with serious long term impacts to my career trajectory that has simultaneously completely thrown knowing where I'll even live in 6 weeks into a total mystery, my entire family works in healthcare trying to fight this off, the city I live in (and the city I work in) have economies that will be impacted for years, I've been outside for a total of maybe 3 hours in 6 weeks, but I need to hear how it's definitely not the government's fault, and they totally should be sticking it to those journalists -- while they completely abdicate all responsibility, and all blame.
You know what, fuck owning up to what occurred -- I'd love to hear ONCE what could have been done better. Guess what? You'll NEVER get an answer from the top.
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3 days earlier.
Trump responses over this time frame?
I'm sure his own tweets are 'fake news' and 'radical leftists' and 'enemy of the people' news media Link - ( New Window )
what is your point? Clearly the impact was underestimated, and the commentary matches that. Who denies that? Has someone on here defended any of those comments?
Not sure what point you are trying to make.
Fauci said "when you see community spread".
It was confirmed either 3 days earlier, or the day before.
He is part of the federal government.
The leader of the federal government was either: 1) so unconcerned and aloof he had NO idea that there was community spread and what his top public health official was saying
2) Didn't care, and only cared about this in the lenses of PR
3) the Government is so inept, that Fauci said that quote without even knowing community spread had already occurred.
My link in that post wasn't to the image, it was to the CDC saying community spread likely occurred on 2/26.
That is someone who hates the president and everyone thinks is doing a great job including myself...
It's incredible to read that "every governor has come out and said the president is doing a great job" when it's not even remotely true or rooted in fact. By the way, uh, take a look at the president and figure out what the easiest way is to get what you want? spoiler: he's a narcissist, so you need to praise him.
But live in your own world. Your previous posts in this thread already show how seriously your opinion should be taking.
First off, I am sorry you lost your job, it must be an anxious time for you, and I hope your situation turns out even better for you than before.
I am not blaming anyone for the current situation. And I don't see a productive need for blame. My sense is people were going to die. Given what was truly known and when it was known, not sure what actions would have realistically been taken (and adhered to) and what impact they would have had. And like Dr. Fauci said today it's not productive to discuss what would or could have been done.
In your situation, maybe I'd be looking for blame as well.
My commentary about the media was in relation to the press conferences. and in general, not specific to Coronavirus and I wasn't blaming them for it, but I also don't blame the President.
If I had to blame someone it would be mostly China, probably, but again, I find that unproductive.
I do think the lesson learned here will be to not be so reliant on one place for so much important to our economy and replacing stockpile warnings should not be ignored (like they were for over 10 years).
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Every Governor no matter the side has come out and said they have gotten everything they have asked for, Cuomo tosay said the president has helped them with everything they have needed and has been great to him..
That is someone who hates the president and everyone thinks is doing a great job including myself...
It's incredible to read that "every governor has come out and said the president is doing a great job" when it's not even remotely true or rooted in fact. By the way, uh, take a look at the president and figure out what the easiest way is to get what you want? spoiler: he's a narcissist, so you need to praise him.
But live in your own world. Your previous posts in this thread already show how seriously your opinion should be taking.
Dude i am sorry you are having such a hard time, i am really truly sorry..
i am just going to leave it at that since clearly you are emotional and no matte rhwatbi say or anyone says you are going to argue against it..
hooe everything gets better
First off, I am sorry you lost your job, it must be an anxious time for you, and I hope your situation turns out even better for you than before.
I am not blaming anyone for the current situation. And I don't see a productive need for blame. My sense is people were going to die. Given what was truly known and when it was known, not sure what actions would have realistically been taken (and adhered to) and what impact they would have had. And like Dr. Fauci said today it's not productive to discuss what would or could have been done.
In your situation, maybe I'd be looking for blame as well.
My commentary about the media was in relation to the press conferences. and in general, not specific to Coronavirus and I wasn't blaming them for it, but I also don't blame the President.
If I had to blame someone it would be mostly China, probably, but again, I find that unproductive.
I do think the lesson learned here will be to not be so reliant on one place for so much important to our economy and replacing stockpile warnings should not be ignored (like they were for over 10 years).
It is not going to, it is going to be a slow rebuild, certain businesses and jobs will be allowed to open, take it 2 weeks at a time..
Restaraunts and gyms will be the last thing to reopen
Thanks, I meant it.
And I don't disagree about accountability, but IMO that should be after we're out of it and we have time for real data, and unemotional analysis that shows what was realistic and when.
At this point, blame causes defensiveness and divisiveness, at a time when unity would be so much better for everyone. When things settle down, then look back. Just my opinion.
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That wasn't sarcasm either, truly do appreciate it the sentiment
Thanks, I meant it.
And I don't disagree about accountability, but IMO that should be after we're out of it and we have time for real data, and unemotional analysis that shows what was realistic and when.
At this point, blame causes defensiveness and divisiveness, at a time when unity would be so much better for everyone. When things settle down, then look back. Just my opinion.
This was being called a "democratic hoax" helped by the "fake news media" on like, March 9th. here in the NYC/hudson county area, I was literally already quarantined.
To me, that counts as shifting the blame in the midst and not "waiting till its over".
I think it will. Let the Governors run the states as they see fit and I am sure their growing financial tabs will be a strong factor in how aggressively they do.
Headline "TRUMP SAYS WE SHOULD HAVE BOMBED CHINA"
This is the same way they misrepresented the Fauci quote. The news is dead on both sides it's no longer a ratings circle jerk it's just a circle jerk. Press conferences are unwatchable except when Fauci or Birx speak but even then there is no news. We are still months away from testing which is what we need.
Also, one of the largest distributors of PPE is a company formed 3 weeks ago by a major political donor. It's a big money grab. America is broken.
Headline "TRUMP SAYS WE SHOULD HAVE BOMBED CHINA"
This is the same way they misrepresented the Fauci quote. The news is dead on both sides it's no longer a ratings circle jerk it's just a circle jerk. Press conferences are unwatchable except when Fauci or Birx speak but even then there is no news. We are still months away from testing which is what we need.
Also, one of the largest distributors of PPE is a company formed 3 weeks ago by a major political donor. It's a big money grab. America is broken.
But yeah, the corruption is very obviously rampant, and this country is utterly fucked. Definitely being caused by a specific group though. And it's not fuckin CNN.
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that this is not a threat to the united states? so you expected trump to shut down a country when his lead doctor is saying it is not a threat?
and how do you think people would of reacted if he shut down the country with 15 confirmed cases? people would of said F you
Ah yes, the correct course of action was to go on Twitter and compare it to the flu and call it a "democratic hoax".
The city wasn't shut down in January. It was shut down in mid/early March. It was pretty apparent what the risk was before mid/early March.
Trump did not call the virus a hoax, as widely debunked in many left leaning publications, including WaPo and Snopes. I linked one for you to read (you won’t though). He called the politicization of the virus by Democrats that were calling him racist for shutting down travel from China a hoax.
This is what PJ means when he says “coin operated lemmings” because this also was a mainstream media talking point that was stressed a month ago.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-remark/ - ( New Window )
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In comment 14867533 nygiants16 said:
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that this is not a threat to the united states? so you expected trump to shut down a country when his lead doctor is saying it is not a threat?
and how do you think people would of reacted if he shut down the country with 15 confirmed cases? people would of said F you
Ah yes, the correct course of action was to go on Twitter and compare it to the flu and call it a "democratic hoax".
The city wasn't shut down in January. It was shut down in mid/early March. It was pretty apparent what the risk was before mid/early March.
Trump did not call the virus a hoax, as widely debunked in many left leaning publications, including WaPo and Snopes. I linked one for you to read (you won’t though). He called the politicization of the virus by Democrats that were calling him racist for shutting down travel from China a hoax.
This is what PJ means when he says “coin operated lemmings” because this also was a mainstream media talking point that was stressed a month ago. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-remark/ - ( New Window )
Oh, sorry, he said the criticism to his response to the virus was a "hoax" (it's utterly laughable you're parsing this man's speech on a word by word level to jump to your conclusion).
In your wannabe gotcha moment, you ever realize how fucking stupid you have to be to call criticism a "hoax"?
Also LOL why'd you ignore the other laundry list of other quotes?
"15 now.... soon to be 0". Was that said? Contort that, please.
The balls on you to call me a lemming.
And you call me a lemming. Overarching point? - this was weeks after community spread. I was literally already on mandatory WFH when this tweet came out, lol. unreal -- trying to pretend this isn't a form of messaging that has the same goal as the "democratic hoax!".
This man said his admin had the "perfect" response which was "not as perfect as the ukraine call, which was perfect" -- and that we would open up by easter because it was a "beautiful timeline" and a "beautiful time".
Yeah, he totally has his hands on the pulse of the epidemic. What a fucking joke, it's unfathomable people are partisan enough to defend this fucking response. Get someone who is fucking competent in there.
Link - ( New Window )
2) His rant about total authority - it seems he caught himself toward the end to clarify he was referring to this situation...I guess because it is still a state of emergency
3) The CBS reporter was spot on - the entire month of February is being ignored right now by the WH. A question is asked about that time and just keeps going back to the travel restriction on China. Great. That did did save lives. But, what about the inaction in the weeks after that?
4) I think it was pjcas who mentions the reporters at these briefings being out of line. As much as I think the briefings are bogus and whacky from the WH perspective and very un-presidential, I will agree that the reporters now have an agenda that contributes to the embarrassing behavior.
5) Yes, Fauci said in early January that this wasn't a threat to the US. But, he also changed his tune well before real action other than the travel ban was taken. Before the end of January, he was already discussing a Phase I of vaccine testing by, best case, 3 months. By the end of January he was advocating for proactively eliminating elective surgeries and treatments to ensure beds are freed up if needed. In mid to late February he said the travel ban was the right move to help slow the virus, but it is not a measure that would stop it, in the face of the WH claims. In late February, he was talking about preparing to close schools, etc. In the first days of March was the first confirmation of a global pandemic. This is also when he confirmed the CDC was not setup for testing the way the general public was clamoring - for anyone to get tested. At the same time, the President is saying anyone who needs a test will get one.
6) It is evident that too many people (doctors, organizations, the WH, etc.) were too reliant on Chinese data about the outbreak of the virus.
1) "reopened" (what does this mean)
2) by Easter (ok, clearly we see why this date was chosen)
3) because it's a "beautiful day" (this is a global pandemic)
4) and a "beautiful timeline" (wtf???)
The question asked to him was "how did you come up with a timeline of opening lockdown on Easter"
This is the response we got.
""I'd love to have it open by Easter," he said. "I would love to have that. It's such an important day for other reasons, but I'll make it an important day for this too. I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter."
In another interview with Fox News later Tuesday afternoon, Trump said he came up with the "Easter is a very special day for me."
"Wouldn't it be great to have all the churches full?" Trump added. "You'll have packed churches all over our country. I think it'll be a beautiful time."
During a White House press briefing on Tuesday night, Trump doubled down on his Easter timeline, saying that he hoped to see people return to their routines within 19 days.
"We're looking at a timeline, we're discussing it," Trump said. "We had a very good meeting today."
Trump suggested that the deadline was not concrete, saying: "We're going to look at it, we'll only do it if it's good, and maybe we do sections of the country, large sections of the country."
He added that he had been "in touch" with Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, both members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, about the timeline.
"Who suggested Easter?" Kaitlan Collins, CNN's White House correspondent, asked Trump in response.
"I just thought it was a beautiful time ... a beautiful timeline. It's a beautiful day," he responded.
"So that wasn't based on any of the data?" Collins replied.
"It was based on a certain level of weeks from the time we started," Trump asserted. "And we were thinking in terms of sooner. I'd love to see it come even sooner. But I just think it'll be a beautiful timeline."
AH YES, A MAN OF SCIENCE. This is the leader you need during a global pandemic! that was dated march 29th, btw.
To be honest, I think Fauci is starting to speak out of his element when he discusses opening the economy. He can talk about when it I don't want him mentioning the economy.
13.5 test positive with Asymptomatic Covid19
1.9 tested positive with symptomatic Covid19
Now this is a very tiny sample so take this with a huge grain of salt ..
but if you extrapolate numbers
159,581. Is 1.9% of population of NYC
Actual cases currently in NYC is 106,863 or 1.2% of population which is actually not too far off .
this could mean that in NYC there are 1.159,062 people with aymptomatic covid19
Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery - ( New Window )
13.5 test positive with Asymptomatic Covid19
1.9 tested positive with symptomatic Covid19
Now this is a very tiny sample so take this with a huge grain of salt ..
but if you extrapolate numbers
159,581. Is 1.9% of population of NYC
Actual cases currently in NYC is 106,863 or 1.2% of population which is actually not too far off .
this could mean that in NYC there are 1.159,062 people with aymptomatic covid19 Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery - ( New Window )
That would be huge if true when it comes to a 2nd surge..
Quote:
Between March 22 and April 4, 2020, a total of 215 pregnant women delivered infants at the New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center . All the women were screened on admission for symptoms of Covid-19.
13.5 test positive with Asymptomatic Covid19
1.9 tested positive with symptomatic Covid19
Now this is a very tiny sample so take this with a huge grain of salt ..
but if you extrapolate numbers
159,581. Is 1.9% of population of NYC
Actual cases currently in NYC is 106,863 or 1.2% of population which is actually not too far off .
this could mean that in NYC there are 1.159,062 people with aymptomatic covid19 Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery - ( New Window )
That would be huge if true when it comes to a 2nd surge..
Apr 13th briefing - ( New Window )
The most important thing now is to get quick and effective testing. Serology for anyone to be cleared back to gen pop and rapid testing for anyone symptomatic. When using public transport or crossing state lines or into crowded public space people will probably need people to consent to some form of electronic trace testing similar to how police can search your bag going into the subway. This is still a free country and if people choose to ignore safety precautions, especially if they have to work, then that’s that. We can only enforce the law. The economy is in serious trouble and it’s going to take a long while to dig out from this. We need to start digging as soon as possible. We need to get back to work.
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1) Does anyone have a link to the wacky briefing today? I want to see that video, but can't find it thus far.
Here ya go Apr 13th briefing - ( New Window )
1) "reopened" (what does this mean)
2) by Easter (ok, clearly we see why this date was chosen)
3) because it's a "beautiful day" (this is a global pandemic)
4) and a "beautiful timeline" (wtf???)
The question asked to him was "how did you come up with a timeline of opening lockdown on Easter"
This is the response we got.
""I'd love to have it open by Easter," he said. "I would love to have that. It's such an important day for other reasons, but I'll make it an important day for this too. I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter."
In another interview with Fox News later Tuesday afternoon, Trump said he came up with the "Easter is a very special day for me."
"Wouldn't it be great to have all the churches full?" Trump added. "You'll have packed churches all over our country. I think it'll be a beautiful time."
During a White House press briefing on Tuesday night, Trump doubled down on his Easter timeline, saying that he hoped to see people return to their routines within 19 days.
"We're looking at a timeline, we're discussing it," Trump said. "We had a very good meeting today."
Trump suggested that the deadline was not concrete, saying: "We're going to look at it, we'll only do it if it's good, and maybe we do sections of the country, large sections of the country."
He added that he had been "in touch" with Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, both members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, about the timeline.
"Who suggested Easter?" Kaitlan Collins, CNN's White House correspondent, asked Trump in response.
"I just thought it was a beautiful time ... a beautiful timeline. It's a beautiful day," he responded.
"So that wasn't based on any of the data?" Collins replied.
"It was based on a certain level of weeks from the time we started," Trump asserted. "And we were thinking in terms of sooner. I'd love to see it come even sooner. But I just think it'll be a beautiful timeline."
AH YES, A MAN OF SCIENCE. This is the leader you need during a global pandemic! that was dated march 29th, btw.
I'm sorry, but anyway you look at it that is absurd
I'm not an epidemiologist but I did sleep in a Holiday Inn last night, and I did ride the NYC subways during the pandemic for a month before leaving town.
I think a lot of people have/have had this virus, and there is an extremely wide set of reactions. Some people shrug it off, and some people die quickly.
That's all I've got. Be well BBIers.
I'm not an epidemiologist but I did sleep in a Holiday Inn last night, and I did ride the NYC subways during the pandemic for a month before leaving town.
I think a lot of people have/have had this virus, and there is an extremely wide set of reactions. Some people shrug it off, and some people die quickly.
That's all I've got. Be well BBIers.
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Coin operated lemmings are people who take, at face value, that the country would be:
1) "reopened" (what does this mean)
2) by Easter (ok, clearly we see why this date was chosen)
3) because it's a "beautiful day" (this is a global pandemic)
4) and a "beautiful timeline" (wtf???)
The question asked to him was "how did you come up with a timeline of opening lockdown on Easter"
This is the response we got.
""I'd love to have it open by Easter," he said. "I would love to have that. It's such an important day for other reasons, but I'll make it an important day for this too. I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter."
In another interview with Fox News later Tuesday afternoon, Trump said he came up with the "Easter is a very special day for me."
"Wouldn't it be great to have all the churches full?" Trump added. "You'll have packed churches all over our country. I think it'll be a beautiful time."
During a White House press briefing on Tuesday night, Trump doubled down on his Easter timeline, saying that he hoped to see people return to their routines within 19 days.
"We're looking at a timeline, we're discussing it," Trump said. "We had a very good meeting today."
Trump suggested that the deadline was not concrete, saying: "We're going to look at it, we'll only do it if it's good, and maybe we do sections of the country, large sections of the country."
He added that he had been "in touch" with Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, both members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, about the timeline.
"Who suggested Easter?" Kaitlan Collins, CNN's White House correspondent, asked Trump in response.
"I just thought it was a beautiful time ... a beautiful timeline. It's a beautiful day," he responded.
"So that wasn't based on any of the data?" Collins replied.
"It was based on a certain level of weeks from the time we started," Trump asserted. "And we were thinking in terms of sooner. I'd love to see it come even sooner. But I just think it'll be a beautiful timeline."
AH YES, A MAN OF SCIENCE. This is the leader you need during a global pandemic! that was dated march 29th, btw.
Bravo to this administration for their positivity and hope. Amen.
Just, wow!
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1) Does anyone have a link to the wacky briefing today? I want to see that video, but can't find it thus far.
Here ya go Apr 13th briefing - ( New Window )
Video is bonkers something out of 1984.
Going forward, we need to ensure the healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed by a second surge.
As Cuomo indicated, a regional, measured re-opening of the economy is the next step. NYC is going to be the most regulated for a long time. But upstate NY can be slowly opened. Large gathering spots are not a good idea, but other areas are.
Studies need to be made in a lot of areas. Evaluation of where folk became infected should be studied. Workers of essential stores should be evaluated. Common sense would indicate they should be contracting the virus at a higher rate than the general population, as they are exposed a lot more. If their rate of infection is not higher, then there should be no reason non-essential stores should remain closed.
Yes, widespread testing is important, but that doesn't mean that informed thinking can't be achieved with limited data.
I would hope that vigorous studies are underway and informed thinking/evaluation is constantly improving/adjusting as more and more data comes in.
Anyone hoping for an announcement that tomorrow (whenever that tomorrow is) everything is open for business is not thinking clearly.
Ditto for thinking the virus is just going to disappear due to sheltering.
Gradual, measured, regional re-opening is going to be the order of the day. Relax a little bit and evaluate the effect.
Meanwhile, every day brings us closer to effective treatment, eventually a vaccine, and abundant necessary supplies.
That changed. After not having many patients they switched them over to Covid
Link - ( New Window )
you don't just snap your fingers and magically millions of test kits are produced while the ability to administer/run the test pops up.
we don't need universal testing. We need the ability to test a cross section of society. We're getting there. we have a very good idea what and where the level of infection is.
It sucks that I can't run to the doc and see if the 'bug' I had a month ago was Covid, but knowing that would not change the shelter in place order. The level of hospitalization is the ultimate important stat, and testing/counting is readily available there.
Have you not paid attention whatsoever in the last week? It's been well publicized that Comfort changed to now being used for COVID cases after Cuomo asked last week
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He is saying the Naval medical ships are not being used...but he referred to them as COVID compatible. They are not. They are actually supposed to take spill over of non-COVID cases from hospitals as needed. That has nothing to do with how many cases continue to plague the NYC and LA hospitals.
Have you not paid attention whatsoever in the last week? It's been well publicized that Comfort changed to now being used for COVID cases after Cuomo asked last week
you don't just snap your fingers and magically millions of test kits are produced while the ability to administer/run the test pops up.
we don't need universal testing. We need the ability to test a cross section of society. We're getting there. we have a very good idea what and where the level of infection is.
It sucks that I can't run to the doc and see if the 'bug' I had a month ago was Covid, but knowing that would not change the shelter in place order. The level of hospitalization is the ultimate important stat, and testing/counting is readily available there.
Coronavirus Vaccine Could Be Ready in Six Months - ( New Window )
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In comment 14867653 Sonic Youth said:
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Coin operated lemmings are people who take, at face value, that the country would be:
1) "reopened" (what does this mean)
2) by Easter (ok, clearly we see why this date was chosen)
3) because it's a "beautiful day" (this is a global pandemic)
4) and a "beautiful timeline" (wtf???)
The question asked to him was "how did you come up with a timeline of opening lockdown on Easter"
This is the response we got.
""I'd love to have it open by Easter," he said. "I would love to have that. It's such an important day for other reasons, but I'll make it an important day for this too. I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter."
In another interview with Fox News later Tuesday afternoon, Trump said he came up with the "Easter is a very special day for me."
"Wouldn't it be great to have all the churches full?" Trump added. "You'll have packed churches all over our country. I think it'll be a beautiful time."
During a White House press briefing on Tuesday night, Trump doubled down on his Easter timeline, saying that he hoped to see people return to their routines within 19 days.
"We're looking at a timeline, we're discussing it," Trump said. "We had a very good meeting today."
Trump suggested that the deadline was not concrete, saying: "We're going to look at it, we'll only do it if it's good, and maybe we do sections of the country, large sections of the country."
He added that he had been "in touch" with Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, both members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, about the timeline.
"Who suggested Easter?" Kaitlan Collins, CNN's White House correspondent, asked Trump in response.
"I just thought it was a beautiful time ... a beautiful timeline. It's a beautiful day," he responded.
"So that wasn't based on any of the data?" Collins replied.
"It was based on a certain level of weeks from the time we started," Trump asserted. "And we were thinking in terms of sooner. I'd love to see it come even sooner. But I just think it'll be a beautiful timeline."
AH YES, A MAN OF SCIENCE. This is the leader you need during a global pandemic! that was dated march 29th, btw.
Bravo to this administration for their positivity and hope. Amen.
Just, wow!
If he isn't that is just fucking insane to me
Hey man, we aren't all Christian. Stop picking the holiday YOU believe in as a date we need to target to get back to work when it might kill MY grandparents.
And the problem is the media? Jesus Christ.
Stahl was the first television journalist to sit down with Mr. Trump for an interview following his election victory. Their wide-ranging on-camera interview did not delve into Mr. Trump's attitude toward the press, but Stahl said on Monday night that in a candid, off-camera meeting earlier that year, she pressed him to explain his barrage of insults aimed at journalists, and he gave her a clear explanation:
"I said, 'You know, that is getting tired. Why are you doing this? You're doing it over and over. It's boring and it's time to end that,'" Stahl said on stage alongside "PBS Newshour anchor Judy Woodruff.
"He said, 'You know why I do it? I do it to discredit you all and demean you all so when you write negative stories about me, no one will believe you.' He said that," Stahl told the audience, adding, "So, put that in your head for a minute."
"Not cool, Leslie"
- a few BBIers on here
quote source - ( New Window )
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those delivering-mom stats are very interesting.
I'm not an epidemiologist but I did sleep in a Holiday Inn last night, and I did ride the NYC subways during the pandemic for a month before leaving town.
I think a lot of people have/have had this virus, and there is an extremely wide set of reactions. Some people shrug it off, and some people die quickly.
That's all I've got. Be well BBIers.
Agreed. Yes, people die but many of these folks are not healthy in the first place and many (forgive me) may have died of flu or other reasons but listed as COVID. I mean, I just don't trust all this data per se.
And the problem is the media? Jesus Christ.
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Stahl was the first television journalist to sit down with Mr. Trump for an interview following his election victory. Their wide-ranging on-camera interview did not delve into Mr. Trump's attitude toward the press, but Stahl said on Monday night that in a candid, off-camera meeting earlier that year, she pressed him to explain his barrage of insults aimed at journalists, and he gave her a clear explanation:
"I said, 'You know, that is getting tired. Why are you doing this? You're doing it over and over. It's boring and it's time to end that,'" Stahl said on stage alongside "PBS Newshour anchor Judy Woodruff.
"He said, 'You know why I do it? I do it to discredit you all and demean you all so when you write negative stories about me, no one will believe you.' He said that," Stahl told the audience, adding, "So, put that in your head for a minute."
"Not cool, Leslie"
- a few BBIers on here quote source - ( New Window )
Like what the fuck...?
Trump did not call the virus a hoax, as widely debunked in many left leaning publications, including WaPo and Snopes. I linked one for you to read (you won’t though). He called the politicization of the virus by Democrats that were calling him racist for shutting down travel from China a hoax.
I agree with this... he did not actually label the virus itself a hoax, as if reports of its existence were something like an April Fool's joke. Similarly, reports of rampant criticism and cries of racism about the China travel ban are being greatly exaggerated.
It really is laughable
He held a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on March 2, drawing a capacity crowd to the 9,600-seat Bojangles’ Coliseum.
Some at Trump's North Carolina rally said they doubted the deadly coronavirus even exists
Exactly. Why the fuck do people continue to post political post after political post. What information is it actually providing?
I don't think Sonic has had a single post about the pandemic - it has all been political ramblings.
I LOVE THIS ONE!
Yes YOU ARE 100% CORRECT
Trump did not call the virus a hoax.. Trump call the Democrats' criticism of his administration's response to the new coronavirus outbreak the new hoax.
What was Democratic criticism? All of Feb Trump was downplaying virus danger and spread -- Trump was going golfing and attending rallies .. instead of working to prevent virus from causing death and entire economy to grid to halt ..
Don't you feel better now that you are correct?
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Holy shit. We get it that you disagree. Great. Nothing is changing except this thread being deleted.
Exactly. Why the fuck do people continue to post political post after political post. What information is it actually providing?
I don't think Sonic has had a single post about the pandemic - it has all been political ramblings.
I found it hilarious that Sonic was asking to be banned at some point, and said it would be doing him a favor.
Cant you just ban yourself?
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In comment 14867787 Gmen1982 said:
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Holy shit. We get it that you disagree. Great. Nothing is changing except this thread being deleted.
Exactly. Why the fuck do people continue to post political post after political post. What information is it actually providing?
I don't think Sonic has had a single post about the pandemic - it has all been political ramblings.
I found it hilarious that Sonic was asking to be banned at some point, and said it would be doing him a favor.
Cant you just ban yourself?
Think I heard we're now the highest tested per capita, although that may only be true of the hotspots.
Yes, more tests would be valuable for USA and everywhere. Yes, we appear to have fumbled the ball early, and that may have affected our strategy. But, in terms of testing, we've caught up to, and passed, the rest of the world. Until new technology occurs, we're doing the best we can, and ramping up all the while.
numbers - ( New Window )
It really can be that simple.
Personally, I would not do that because I wouldn't want to expose myself more, so I just stay home. But it's available to me should I choose.
Italy - 17.3k
Germany - 15.7k
Australia - 14.3k
Spain - 12.8k
Canada - 11.5k
S. Korea - 10.2k
USA - 8.9k
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries - ( New Window )
Think I heard we're now the highest tested per capita, although that may only be true of the hotspots.
Yes, more tests would be valuable for USA and everywhere. Yes, we appear to have fumbled the ball early, and that may have affected our strategy. But, in terms of testing, we've caught up to, and passed, the rest of the world. Until new technology occurs, we're doing the best we can, and ramping up all the while. numbers - ( New Window )
That must be in the hotspots because it's not accurate for the country.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data#testing - ( New Window )
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Holy shit. We get it that you disagree. Great. Nothing is changing except this thread being deleted.
Exactly. Why the fuck do people continue to post political post after political post. What information is it actually providing?
I don't think Sonic has had a single post about the pandemic - it has all been political ramblings.
It has effectively ruined this thread. Almost as if external forces motivated by politics planned to do that all along. Make me sick.
Think I heard we're now the highest tested per capita, although that may only be true of the hotspots.
Yes, more tests would be valuable for USA and everywhere. Yes, we appear to have fumbled the ball early, and that may have affected our strategy. But, in terms of testing, we've caught up to, and passed, the rest of the world. Until new technology occurs, we're doing the best we can, and ramping up all the while. numbers - ( New Window )
In total number of tests we exceed everyone, but no we haven't caught up or surpassed any countries relative to testing per capita. We lag behind 80% of European countries per capita. One good sign was that yesterday we saw a drop in new cases and deaths compared to the previous days
WHO Says 70 Vaccines in the Works, With Three Leading Candidates - ( New Window )
13.5 test positive with Asymptomatic Covid19
1.9 tested positive with symptomatic Covid19
Now this is a very tiny sample so take this with a huge grain of salt ..
but if you extrapolate numbers
159,581. Is 1.9% of population of NYC
Actual cases currently in NYC is 106,863 or 1.2% of population which is actually not too far off .
this could mean that in NYC there are 1.159,062 people with aymptomatic covid19 Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery - ( New Window )
Honestly that isn't as interesting as you think it is. Based on previous tests and symptom development period about half those will develop symptoms which will put the asymptomatic at about the 50 percent range, which is exactly what I've been saying for weeks now. And if I can see that I'm sure the experts can too.
Personally, I would not do that because I wouldn't want to expose myself more, so I just stay home. But it's available to me should I choose.
Britt - that is fantastic and what the rest of the country really needs to figure out who should be allowed out, and who should quarntine. That's the only way "re-opening" is going to work.
Your state seems to be minority. I saw a line in Paramus, NJ that extended miles (cars) of people waiting to get tested..............
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Virginia has tests for anybody that wants one. Just call up and make an appointment, get the results in 3-5 days. Had a friend and his wife do it with no symptoms.
Personally, I would not do that because I wouldn't want to expose myself more, so I just stay home. But it's available to me should I choose.
Britt - that is fantastic and what the rest of the country really needs to figure out who should be allowed out, and who should quarntine. That's the only way "re-opening" is going to work.
Your state seems to be minority. I saw a line in Paramus, NJ that extended miles (cars) of people waiting to get tested..............
Us here in Upstate NY have similar experiences(to Brit, that is). I drive past the hospital here a couple times per week and the line for testing is usually not more than 1 or 2 cars.
in hindsight, 98% of what i get in the mail is completely useless and goes into the recycle bin...
So i guess since there's no one to stuff envelopes there's no junk mail...
Things that you dont think about
in hindsight, 98% of what i get in the mail is completely useless and goes into the recycle bin...
So i guess since there's no one to stuff envelopes there's no junk mail...
Things that you dont think about
i meant i got NO mail....
I was talking to my mom about this the other day. They just retired and live in Stamford (downtown is turning into a mini-nyc) and she's curious what will happen there. A lot of the people they have talked to want more room which could lead to a resurgence in real-estate that offers more land. North Stamford prices have tanked the last 5-10 years since its "too far" from everything (the traffic has made it take so damn long just to get downtown) but I can see that turning around now.
So my hour and change commute is worth it because my .75 of an acre is the way to go?
Americans have short memories. NYC real estate was up and running within a few years of 9-11, the terrorist threat, dirty bomb talk, anthrax still fresh in everyone's mind.
Beach communities had a hiccup after Sandy. Once the mounds of garbage were gone, housed started to get raised and insurance started paying off, water view was king again.
Those that can afford a second home in the Catskills and the East End will buy, inflating those prices.
in hindsight, 98% of what i get in the mail is completely useless and goes into the recycle bin...
So i guess since there's no one to stuff envelopes there's no junk mail...
Things that you dont think about
I've had no mail about 3 times in the past two weeks. Like Pavlov's dog, I keep going out to check the mailbox. I do think there may be something to companies pulling back on the junk mail.
Maybe a positive from this situation!
Why do this with just the sickest patients?
In their clinical trial, patients are being randomly assigned to be on their stomachs or backs, according to David Vines, chair of the cardiopulmonary sciences department at Rush.
"We'll see if proning helps, and if so, how long should they be in the prone position," Vines said.
I think they're all 'sold' out on a daily basis, so I doubt it's as simple as 'if you want one, just call up and get one', but my buddy got in quickly to verify his confirmed case was gone after his symptoms were over. It may have been that they wanted to get a survey point for studying whether the assumption that the virus is gone X days after symptoms is valid. He was well past the recommended days, but still tested positive. Still need a doctor's script to get tested, and that is widely publicized.
ately start them on "the drug remedy"
They dont wait for testing or anything...
I posted about this a few weeks back and though right now this seems farfetched, in a couple months as our economy continues to crumble I can see it gaining steam. Sign me up.
Link - ( New Window )
I posted about this a few weeks back and though right now this seems farfetched, in a couple months as our economy continues to crumble I can see it gaining steam. Sign me up. Link - ( New Window )
By the way in the interest of full disclosure, I dont think this stands a chance but it's fun to think about.
Based on this it seems like no sports (or school) until a vaccine (at least in CA).
Gov. Gavin Newsom unveils six-step plan to re-open California’s economy & ease the statewide stay-at-home order amid outbreak
1. Expanding state testing capacity & ability to track, trace & isolate individuals who test positive for, or are exposed to, COVID-19.
2. Maintain vigilance in protecting most vulnerable from infection & spread, primarily seniors & immunocompromised
3. Address ongoing needs of hospitals, in relation to potential surges & ensuring that doctors & staff have the appropriate protective gear they need.
4. Engage with research partners to develop therapeutics & potentially a vaccine.
5. Enact guidelines on what physical distancing would look like within businesses, schools, and public & private facilities.
*This could entail re-drawing floor plans so people can practice safe social distancing outside the home.
6. Increase capacity to adjust levels of physical distancing & have the ability to reinstate “more rigorous controls” as needed, such as switching back and forth between stricter and looser mitigation efforts as the situation changes.
Newsom didn't provide a timeline for when measures could take effect, but noted any potential action wouldn't come for at least another two weeks.
He also said, "the prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best until we get to heard immunity and we get to a vaccine.”
Based on this it seems like no sports (or school) until a vaccine (at least in CA).
Gov. Gavin Newsom unveils six-step plan to re-open California’s economy & ease the statewide stay-at-home order amid outbreak
1. Expanding state testing capacity & ability to track, trace & isolate individuals who test positive for, or are exposed to, COVID-19.
2. Maintain vigilance in protecting most vulnerable from infection & spread, primarily seniors & immunocompromised
3. Address ongoing needs of hospitals, in relation to potential surges & ensuring that doctors & staff have the appropriate protective gear they need.
4. Engage with research partners to develop therapeutics & potentially a vaccine.
5. Enact guidelines on what physical distancing would look like within businesses, schools, and public & private facilities.
*This could entail re-drawing floor plans so people can practice safe social distancing outside the home.
6. Increase capacity to adjust levels of physical distancing & have the ability to reinstate “more rigorous controls” as needed, such as switching back and forth between stricter and looser mitigation efforts as the situation changes.
Newsom didn't provide a timeline for when measures could take effect, but noted any potential action wouldn't come for at least another two weeks.
He also said, "the prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best until we get to heard immunity and we get to a vaccine.”
If he is waiting for a vaccine how are people supposed to live in california? this just isnt feasible people are going to start running out of money and you can only freeze rent and mortgages fo so long
So, seems like some social distancing and work from home policies might be trending toward more permanent additions to society.
And this is just the Newsom plan (draft 1 I imagine) and to be fair I copied it from a random twitter account (but I believe it to be accurate)
So, seems like some social distancing and work from home policies might be trending toward more permanent additions to society.
And this is just the Newsom plan (draft 1 I imagine) and to be fair I copied it from a random twitter account (but I believe it to be accurate)
Or until herd immunity is achieved. Which who knows maybe that happens inherently over the summer as restrictions are lifted.
I read a different plan that focused on the "at risk" - which is kind of where some places (like the UK) started.
In that plan, only the at-risk would maintain heavy restrictions, but otherwise life gradually becomes more "normal"
So, seems like some social distancing and work from home policies might be trending toward more permanent additions to society.
And this is just the Newsom plan (draft 1 I imagine) and to be fair I copied it from a random twitter account (but I believe it to be accurate)
ok gotcha, i just dont think people are going to adhere to all these protocals for that long...
i am already starting to see some businesses opening that were closed a week ago by me in jersey
After that, it's basically move the desks 6 foot apart.
Can't say as I'm particularly impressed with the details as listed.
After that, it's basically move the desks 6 foot apart.
Can't say as I'm particularly impressed with the details as listed.
Our Pandemic Summer - ( New Window )
This is something we will have to live with as a society. The multiple generation long free ride regarding infectious disease is over. People lived and worked before vaccines and medicines freed the developed world from this threat, we will have to do so again.
Waiting for a vaccine to save us all seems wrongheaded to me. I hope one comes out in the incredibly ambitious time lines being stated. But, that is far from a mortal lock and practical planning should take this fact into account.
I know firsthand a lot about public schools in NYC. Many schools are grossly over crowded and it will be very difficult to change to adhere some social distancing at school. There are many schools at over double their building capacity, which was large to begin with. There are High Schools designed for 1500 students with enrollments well over 3000.
That said, school has to come back as soon as it can. It is the largest day care service on Earth and workers need some place for their kids to go. In addition, in NYC teachers and staff have done amazing on short notice of bringing Remote Learning to the masses. That said, it is in on shape, way or form a substitute for real school. For the social interaction of kids with other kids and adults, for the younger grades set backs in literacy and critical skills needed for the long haul of life will likely be a long term negative aspect of this pandemic. Who knows? Nothing like this has happened for a century. This is even more true for the less fortunate families among us. This threat to the kids is in addition to damage done to the economy. To society, we cant destroy the world to save it.
It is time to plan for the reopen, time to realize as a society we will have to adapt and deal with this virus. It is not possible to wait for a vaccine or the virus to go away to reopen. I welcome any discussion about it at the decision maker level.
There will be life before this thing, and life after.
I wouldn’t be surprised if I was within six feet of 50 different people on the way to work on a normal day in NYC. I could be way underestimating that too. Two trains, subway stations, crowded sidewalks, crowded elevators. Maybe it’s 200 people I really don’t know. It’s a lot of people each way that’s for sure. Not to mention sitting in an office or classroom with open floor plans.
I saw 21 teachers and 50 education employees are dead from the virus already. You think staff will want to go back knowing that?
I wouldn’t be surprised if I was within six feet of 50 different people on the way to work on a normal day in NYC. I could be way underestimating that too. Two trains, subway stations, crowded sidewalks, crowded elevators. Maybe it’s 200 people I really don’t know. It’s a lot of people each way that’s for sure. Not to mention sitting in an office or classroom with open floor plans.
I saw 21 teachers and 50 education employees are dead from the virus already. You think staff will want to go back knowing that?
You raise great points, but what is the alternative, closing the city until a vaccine? How long is that? What are the costs of that. There has to eventually be a plan tonat least try to reopen in a gradual manner, deal with what comes.
I am not smart enough to figure it out, I do think a shutdown like this for months on end may cause permanent damage to the city.
People have suggested contact tracing apps on your phone that track who you are near and are linked to the testing infrastructure to alert you if you were near someone who tested positive so you can quarantine as well. In Asia my understanding is they do this and based on your status (red - infected, yellow - questionable, green - cleared) you can move around with varying levels of freedom. I don’t like the privacy issues raised by that and doubt it works in the US honestly.
We do need to think of something obviously. I have been in my SMALL apartment for five weeks now, it fucking sucks. I would very much like to return to normal yesterday.
We really need expert guidance followed by organized action and funding from the government. I hope we can get there. We still seem really disorganized at all levels.
People have suggested contact tracing apps on your phone that track who you are near and are linked to the testing infrastructure to alert you if you were near someone who tested positive so you can quarantine as well. In Asia my understanding is they do this and based on your status (red - infected, yellow - questionable, green - cleared) you can move around with varying levels of freedom. I don’t like the privacy issues raised by that and doubt it works in the US honestly.
We do need to think of something obviously. I have been in my SMALL apartment for five weeks now, it fucking sucks. I would very much like to return to normal yesterday.
We really need expert guidance followed by organized action and funding from the government. I hope we can get there. We still seem really disorganized at all levels.
Have to at least get the testing up to 8-10%. It will paint such a more detailed picture of what we are dealing with and how to re-open the country
I also had a family member pass last night too, not from COVID-19 though. He had been sick for awhile. I spoke to his widow earlier & really no time frame as to when they'll be a memorial. She's hoping September, but who knows? This is such a fluid, day by day situation.
Anyways, I hope everyone is staying safe & healthy.
Looks like experts from the US for the guided tour of this facility two years ago,and what they saw had them shitting bricks.
They sent semi-classified cables back to the USA stating their concerns and saying the US should help this lab before the shit hits the fan. The specific threat mentioned? An escape of a bat Corona virus thay can cause a pandemic. You don't say?
Perhaps this thing did slip out of the lab? Not in a James Bond villian way, in a we fucked up in a biblical fashion way. In fairness the article states there is currently no evidence of a leak.
But, maybe it should not be discounted as a conspiracy theory, and it seems it will be investigated.
Play with fire and get burned. - ( New Window )
I also had a family member pass last night too, not from COVID-19 though. He had been sick for awhile. I spoke to his widow earlier & really no time frame as to when they'll be a memorial. She's hoping September, but who knows? This is such a fluid, day by day situation.
Anyways, I hope everyone is staying safe & healthy.
sorry to hear it. how old? any comorbidity?
Looks like experts from the US for the guided tour of this facility two years ago,and what they saw had them shitting bricks.
They sent semi-classified cables back to the USA stating their concerns and saying the US should help this lab before the shit hits the fan. The specific threat mentioned? An escape of a bat Corona virus thay can cause a pandemic. You don't say?
Perhaps this thing did slip out of the lab? Not in a James Bond villian way, in a we fucked up in a biblical fashion way. In fairness the article states there is currently no evidence of a leak.
But, maybe it should not be discounted as a conspiracy theory, and it seems it will be investigated. Play with fire and get burned. - ( New Window )
I wonder if that could explain the natural origin of the disease?
I also had a family member pass last night too, not from COVID-19 though. He had been sick for awhile. I spoke to his widow earlier & really no time frame as to when they'll be a memorial. She's hoping September, but who knows? This is such a fluid, day by day situation.
Anyways, I hope everyone is staying safe & healthy.
maybe it's obvious, but this is the worst part of this that sometimes I don't think everyone fully grasps.
these people who die (not just from COVID, but in many cases of anything right now in a hospital) die alone and without their families by their side. I've read about some people setting up face time in the hospitals, or zoom meetings so they can see their loved ones and say goodbye if they're coherent, but I'm not sure people are comforted.
An NHL player was in a coma unrelated to COVID, but was isolated and his wife and family couldn't hug him or see him, hold his hand, nothing, and he passed yesterday.
This has to be the most brutally agonizing thing for those who are dealing with ICU/hospitalized loved ones. Not knowing if you will ever get to really see them again, and knowing they could meet their maker scared and alone.
Very nice guy from all the interactions I had with him. Again, we weren't grabbing beers at happy hour every Friday, but a good man nonetheless.
It's horrible. I don't know what else to say.
It's horrible. I don't know what else to say.
yep, that's the motivation I'm using with my older kids (17 year old twins). they're getting some cabin fever - this is the end of the senior year in high school and they're spending it in the house, and I keep showing them the stories I read about this and asking if they want their grandparents to wind up like that (or anyone's grandparents) and it's harsh, but it helps them keep their small sacrifice in perspective.
Looks like experts from the US for the guided tour of this facility two years ago,and what they saw had them shitting bricks.
They sent semi-classified cables back to the USA stating their concerns and saying the US should help this lab before the shit hits the fan. The specific threat mentioned? An escape of a bat Corona virus thay can cause a pandemic. You don't say?
Perhaps this thing did slip out of the lab? Not in a James Bond villian way, in a we fucked up in a biblical fashion way. In fairness the article states there is currently no evidence of a leak.
But, maybe it should not be discounted as a conspiracy theory, and it seems it will be investigated. Play with fire and get burned. - ( New Window )
We had a family Zoom this afternoon & she looks/sounds like she's doing alright. I've been trying to call her every other day, as they're pretty much locked inside their rooms.
Scary times. Just be safe & keep in touch with loved ones/friends. We'll get through this, but we need to lean on others now too.
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I will post an article on the article as the original from the Post is behind a paywall.
Looks like experts from the US for the guided tour of this facility two years ago,and what they saw had them shitting bricks.
They sent semi-classified cables back to the USA stating their concerns and saying the US should help this lab before the shit hits the fan. The specific threat mentioned? An escape of a bat Corona virus thay can cause a pandemic. You don't say?
Perhaps this thing did slip out of the lab? Not in a James Bond villian way, in a we fucked up in a biblical fashion way. In fairness the article states there is currently no evidence of a leak.
But, maybe it should not be discounted as a conspiracy theory, and it seems it will be investigated. Play with fire and get burned. - ( New Window )
There is no question in my mind that this CV19 virus was "created or enhanced" a bit in a lab and espcaped China's containment attempts. They then had to "switch it up" by BLAMING someone like the United States. It is just the simplest explanation I can come up with and accept given what we have seen to date. I do believe Trump knows the truth but likely can't say for various reasons.
I dont know if this thing leaked from a lab, I found it interesting with this opinion article today that maybe it should not be discounted as a conspiracy theory, no one knows the truth.
It's horrible. I don't know what else to say.
Horribly sad, I am sorry for your loss.
There is no question in my mind that this CV19 virus was "created or enhanced" a bit in a lab and espcaped China's containment attempts. They then had to "switch it up" by BLAMING someone like the United States. It is just the simplest explanation I can come up with and accept given what we have seen to date. I do believe Trump knows the truth but likely can't say for various reasons.
There is no question in your mind? Are you serious dude? You are looking for facts to fit your narrative, whatever that may be. This information shows that it was possible, and since apparently you can tell the difference between a man made and natural virus it is possible that maybe China was trying to figure out how to create a virus that looked natural. It isn't out of the realm of possibility. But to say you are 100 percent sure is bananaland.
I guess it's entirely possible the origin was natural, but then once the sample made it's way to the lab, due to the low security standards, untrained personnel, and other concerns raised by the state department it was inadvertently released (not even suggesting intentionally).
Or it's propaganda (which is also possible).
But it does seem plausible and it makes the natural vs lab origin theories sort if blurry and I agree if you remove intent - less conspiratorial in nature.
Losing is Winning - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Jesus.
Jesus.
It was actually 2407 that died today. There was a glimmer yesterday when deaths actually went down from preceding days.
I guess it's entirely possible the origin was natural, but then once the sample made it's way to the lab, due to the low security standards, untrained personnel, and other concerns raised by the state department it was inadvertently released (not even suggesting intentionally).
Or it's propaganda (which is also possible).
Much as I get people don’t want to go to war and believe in the best of this world - I also don’t understand the dismissive, lazy, trusting mindset that China means well. This isn’t something that needs to be answered today but I look forward to the global investigation to come.
But it does seem plausible and it makes the natural vs lab origin theories sort if blurry and I agree if you remove intent - less conspiratorial in nature.
China not only lost people it also:
Cost itself a fortune so far
Lost credibility with it's people and added to their anger and intolerance for more
Lost so much demand worldwide it likely has to devalue the yuan
May be the major nation hurt the most in a great depression scenario
Will start to lose jobs as some supply chains go elsewhere or back home
Now I'm not remotely pro China. The opposite in fact but I'd really like you to stand behind that bit of "reasoning"
This wall of text quoting under a posters name is not communication. It renders effective conversation impossible.
Nevertheless my post stands...moving around factoids to construct a theory is clever but stupid unless you stress test the advantage vs risk to the accused.
Over time China is likely the nation that winds up lesser by the widest margin.
Anyone noticing that they are talking big but importing food at the same time?
Anyone notice shipping records in and out of the country?
Sure it was on purpose. All the data supports that charge.
Gimme shelter
The articles yesterday have evidence the US was worried about an accidental leak from this P4 facility. An accident, not on purpose. No hard evidence of that either, but it may be a more plausible road to investigate and not a full on kook conspiracy theory.
I found the post piece interesting.
This wall of text quoting under a posters name is not communication. It renders effective conversation impossible.
Nevertheless my post stands...moving around factoids to construct a theory is clever but stupid unless you stress test the advantage vs risk to the accused.
Over time China is likely the nation that winds up lesser by the widest margin.
I made no theory other than to say the state department cables (which I said could in face be propaganda) if true allow that a virus could have been both natural in origin and also accidentally escaped from a lab. I never suggested intent was likely or very possible.
Not sure what you took issue with there, but if you read the reports about the state department "confidential" cables that were sent back 18 months or so ago they expressed concern with the conditions of the Wuhan lab and suggest the place had the potential for an accident.
Maybe that's what you meant.
I agree with this though in general, I think we have become too reliant on China and I don't believe they have the best intentions. But I also don't think they intentionally engineered and released this virus in a lab.
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Much as I get people don’t want to go to war and believe in the best of this world - I also don’t understand the dismissive, lazy, trusting mindset that China means well. This isn’t something that needs to be answered today but I look forward to the global investigation to come.
Maybe that's what you meant.
I agree with this though in general, I think we have become too reliant on China and I don't believe they have the best intentions. But I also don't think they intentionally engineered and released this virus in a lab.
A note of caution to readers to verify a quote before responding. The quoting feature certainly needs improvement and it is hard to point to a specific feature when the whole site lacks "elegance". But anyone can insert their comments in another's quote and it can lead to misunderstanding. Also, when people trim a wall of text in a quote, it is easy to not pay attention to the headers. In some cases a quote is trimmed attributing a remaining quote to another poster.
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Much as I get people don’t want to go to war and believe in the best of this world - I also don’t understand the dismissive, lazy, trusting mindset that China means well. This isn’t something that needs to be answered today but I look forward to the global investigation to come.
Maybe that's what you meant.
I agree with this though in general, I think we have become too reliant on China and I don't believe they have the best intentions. But I also don't think they intentionally engineered and released this virus in a lab.
Yes, sorry. Obviously unintentional. the iphone features arent as clear as when you use a laptop or home computer it seems.
Fauci - empty stadiums through the summer at least - ( New Window )
Wonder what the acoustics are going to be like in empty stadiums???
Memo to keep cases in nyc schools quiet under investigation - ( New Window )
And the world begins losing their minds. Bill Gates, for one example.
I admit I am ignorant as to the role, purpose, and effectiveness of the WHO, but I have two questions:
1. Without the WHO (and I doubt they close shop immediately), what will now happen that wasn't going to happen before?
2. Why does the USA so disproportionately fund the WHO?
If this topic is too political, please ignore.
But based on the events to date, I have a hard time seeing how the WHO can claim any effectiveness "preventing the spread of infectious disease"
I started to see the overall drift of speculation here and outside propose conspiracy which does not stand up to even first level scrutiny.
We agree that the Chinese model is a problem.
But I think our elites cooperation in the name of financial engineering to be the real problem.
This has to be reversed in the years ahead.
I think China, Iran and Saudi are in trouble in the years ahead.
And the world begins losing their minds. Bill Gates, for one example.
I admit I am ignorant as to the role, purpose, and effectiveness of the WHO, but I have two questions:
1. Without the WHO (and I doubt they close shop immediately), what will now happen that wasn't going to happen before?
2. Why does the USA so disproportionately fund the WHO?
If this topic is too political, please ignore.
But based on the events to date, I have a hard time seeing how the WHO can claim any effectiveness "preventing the spread of infectious disease"
One question to ask is how they have handled past pandemics and similar issues.
Another question is, do you simply cut funding or try to help solve the problem?
Why would they completely blow up their business interests and trade?
If major major changes do not come from how we deal with them as a country as a result of this, we have failed massively as a country. The entire world needs to hold them accountable. These viruses don't come from Maine...
The source of accusation sounds like a rival who was being considered for the same job, but that means be skeptical of the accusation, not debunk it.
the article seems pretty damning and if you believe this guy "covered for China" it would be consistent with the claims against him.
Link - ( New Window )
but - sometimes imperfect solutions are the best of bad and worse answers. If an organization can get access or intel we wouldn't get otherwise, even if it's highly flawed, there could still be a value there.
I have no idea what the calculus is on how much $ we invest in the WHO is and what we could do alternatively with that money - but I expect that it's a highly complicated answer that is not cut and dry. And in the middle of a pandemic is likely not the time to make that kind of sober assessment (especially since there's a lot we won't know until signficant analysis takes place). it seems like a highly emotional decision designed to assign blame.
Is there a reason to do this if you're not sure? I read at one point federal funds are tied to # of cases and # of fatalities. Not sure if true, but it seems like a system like that could be exploited (not saying it is but seems ripe to me).
@nytimes
·
18h
Breaking News: New York City’s coronavirus death toll soared past 10,000 after officials added more than 3,700 people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it.
but - sometimes imperfect solutions are the best of bad and worse answers. If an organization can get access or intel we wouldn't get otherwise, even if it's highly flawed, there could still be a value there.
I have no idea what the calculus is on how much $ we invest in the WHO is and what we could do alternatively with that money - but I expect that it's a highly complicated answer that is not cut and dry. And in the middle of a pandemic is likely not the time to make that kind of sober assessment (especially since there's a lot we won't know until signficant analysis takes place). it seems like a highly emotional decision designed to assign blame.
Why not "in the middle of a pandemic"?
That's what I'm trying to understand, sure I can see the emotion/blame side of the coin, but what exactly is the WHO doing to say "we can't survive without them "in the middle of a pandemic""
these were the reasons I read why funding was being stopped pending investigation. If true, what's the harm in halting funding. Even during a pandemic.
-They failed to obtain & share accurate information
-Failed to investigate credible reports of human-to-human transmission and parroted CCP Propaganda instead
-They were silent on the disappearance of Whistleblowers
Even putting aside the millions of lives saved from those efforts directly, the 'benefit' to the first world would be in controlling (eliminating) those diseases and severely limiting their ability to spread throughout the developed world.
And if I'm not mistaken, Bill Gates' philanthropy does a lot of work with the WHO making him as knowledgeable as anyone with regards to their strengths (and weaknesses).
That's not to say they were infallible or that additional mechanisms may need to be put in place to ensure more transparency in the future.
Is there a reason to do this if you're not sure? I read at one point federal funds are tied to # of cases and # of fatalities. Not sure if true, but it seems like a system like that could be exploited (not saying it is but seems ripe to me).
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The New York Times
@nytimes
·
18h
Breaking News: New York City’s coronavirus death toll soared past 10,000 after officials added more than 3,700 people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it.
When there are well established average home deaths, counting the current home deaths with respiratory symptoms will be far more accurate than not counting them at all. They can tweak this down the road.
So unless there's an urgent need to reallocate that $, it would seem like we gambling something we don't know and can't quantify - which is where crucial information is going to come from to get through this.
That's not to say they were infallible or that additional mechanisms may need to be put in place to ensure more transparency in the future.
I'm not saying it wasn't politics, I'm saying what's the risk though? And why does the US fund so much of it?
So unless there's an urgent need to reallocate that $, it would seem like we gambling something we don't know and can't quantify - which is where crucial information is going to come from to get through this.
during the press conference it was announced those funds would go directly to Coronavirus response in the US. Not sure if true.
I thought this meme was pretty funny, but like most memes, touches on a small point and moves it to an extreme.
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stopped for any reason other than politics and scapegoating, I have a bridge to sell you...
That's not to say they were infallible or that additional mechanisms may need to be put in place to ensure more transparency in the future.
I'm not saying it wasn't politics, I'm saying what's the risk though? And why does the US fund so much of it?
1. Because we're the richest nation in the world and the two larger countries (by population) are developing countries
2. ~$60M is nothing for the US. Pick a US agency and I'm sure they waste double that on worthless bloat each year (even the initial $120M is 0.003% of the US's $4.4T budget)
3. Our population is 2.5x larger than Japan's, who contributes the 3rd most, which is ~2.5x less than our contribution.
4. See #3 and apply it to the top Euro countries (Germany, France, UK, Italy)
Link - ( New Window )
That's not to say they were infallible or that additional mechanisms may need to be put in place to ensure more transparency in the future.
Exactly, what makes this move even more ironic is that the quotes WHO said about China in Jan were echoed by our own Govt. during the same time frame.
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I don't know the answer to that. But here's why I suspect it's a not a great idea - if the alternative is getting any of our scientists booted out of accessing information, like the NY Times reporters got booted out of china, and we have to just rely on China, isn't that potentially worse than an organization that was at least putting some warnings out in January and leading experts into China to get on the ground access?
So unless there's an urgent need to reallocate that $, it would seem like we gambling something we don't know and can't quantify - which is where crucial information is going to come from to get through this.
during the press conference it was announced those funds would go directly to Coronavirus response in the US. Not sure if true.
Stop buying the propaganda. An extra $50M for coronavirus is nothing compared to the >$2T stimulus just passed (and the future stimulus currently in the works).
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stopped for any reason other than politics and scapegoating, I have a bridge to sell you...
That's not to say they were infallible or that additional mechanisms may need to be put in place to ensure more transparency in the future.
Exactly, what makes this move even more ironic is that the quotes WHO said about China in Jan were echoed by our own Govt. during the same time frame.
That's not irony. That's why our Govt took these steps, to try and make it seem like they only made those comments because they were duped by the evil WHO after China bribed them.
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In comment 14868919 Eric on Li said:
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I don't know the answer to that. But here's why I suspect it's a not a great idea - if the alternative is getting any of our scientists booted out of accessing information, like the NY Times reporters got booted out of china, and we have to just rely on China, isn't that potentially worse than an organization that was at least putting some warnings out in January and leading experts into China to get on the ground access?
So unless there's an urgent need to reallocate that $, it would seem like we gambling something we don't know and can't quantify - which is where crucial information is going to come from to get through this.
during the press conference it was announced those funds would go directly to Coronavirus response in the US. Not sure if true.
Stop buying the propaganda. An extra $50M for coronavirus is nothing compared to the >$2T stimulus just passed (and the future stimulus currently in the works).
Which just recently was discovered that over 80% of that relief package is going to those making 1M or more a year, 3% of it is going to those making under 100K
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In comment 14868919 Eric on Li said:
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I don't know the answer to that. But here's why I suspect it's a not a great idea - if the alternative is getting any of our scientists booted out of accessing information, like the NY Times reporters got booted out of china, and we have to just rely on China, isn't that potentially worse than an organization that was at least putting some warnings out in January and leading experts into China to get on the ground access?
So unless there's an urgent need to reallocate that $, it would seem like we gambling something we don't know and can't quantify - which is where crucial information is going to come from to get through this.
during the press conference it was announced those funds would go directly to Coronavirus response in the US. Not sure if true.
Stop buying the propaganda. An extra $50M for coronavirus is nothing compared to the >$2T stimulus just passed (and the future stimulus currently in the works).
Not buying anything. I relayed what was said, and then commented "not sure if true"
stop telling me to stop buying something.
They're not perfect for sure but they shouldn't be the scapegoat. There is no scapegoat. Colossal screwups piled on top of other colossal screwups piled on top of poor judgements and miscalculations and the screwed up place our country is in right now (and has been heading for a while) is now fully exposed for all to see.
Do we steamroll through and come out better on the other side? Let's hope that our better natures prevail and we learn and grow and improve.
Maybe we start manufacturing crucial supplies here again because it is just as important a part of national defense as the military.
Maybe we realize that the underpaid service class is the meat and potatoes of our economy and our daily way of life.
Maybe we realize that our food production system, while awesome in its ability to produce gargantuan amounts of product, comes at a high environmental and human cost.
Maybe we rally around with each other, for each other, and because of each other.
Maybe.
Except for Cowboys fans, because fuck that.
I can't imagine the people of China appreciate this whole situation on a number of levels.
On the humanitarian side their government has handled this so poorly. A lot of parallels to Chernobyl. On top of that, they seem to be rushing to get back to "normal" and we've already heard of another wave of infections. This is stemming from a targeted lock down strategy.
Also, their economic distress may continue well into the recovery phase. There's a lot of worldwide anger and everyone is now well aware of the danger of running the supply chain through one source.
@BillGates
Halting funding for the World Health Organization during a world health crisis is as dangerous as it sounds. Their work is slowing the spread of COVID-19 and if that work is stopped no other organization can replace them. The world needs
@WHO
now more than ever.
There may be a time after this to re-evaluate every aspect of the WHO. But in the midst of a pandemic seems highly unlikely to be the right time since they have direct access to crucial information across the world and we need that info to inform our response here.
As others have mentioned the money getting re-invested in Corona response is a positive, though nebulous, sentiment - but money hasn't been the limiting factor in getting more PPE quickly, or more testing, or speeding up the numerous clinical trials for therapeutics or vaccines. We are in a fight against time more than money, and global information sharing is crucial to that fight.
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it's human nature to see things as we want them to be, and sometimes the worse an organization functions, the easier that is to do that. Global organizations with many constituencies have a lot of masters to please.
but - sometimes imperfect solutions are the best of bad and worse answers. If an organization can get access or intel we wouldn't get otherwise, even if it's highly flawed, there could still be a value there.
I have no idea what the calculus is on how much $ we invest in the WHO is and what we could do alternatively with that money - but I expect that it's a highly complicated answer that is not cut and dry. And in the middle of a pandemic is likely not the time to make that kind of sober assessment (especially since there's a lot we won't know until signficant analysis takes place). it seems like a highly emotional decision designed to assign blame.
Why not "in the middle of a pandemic"?
That's what I'm trying to understand, sure I can see the emotion/blame side of the coin, but what exactly is the WHO doing to say "we can't survive without them "in the middle of a pandemic""
these were the reasons I read why funding was being stopped pending investigation. If true, what's the harm in halting funding. Even during a pandemic.
-They failed to obtain & share accurate information
-Failed to investigate credible reports of human-to-human transmission and parroted CCP Propaganda instead
-They were silent on the disappearance of Whistleblowers
WHO aren't the virus police. It's not their function They rely on the member states to do the initial surveillance (outside of some permanent monitoring in Africa), they're also not there as some sort of court to cast judgement on member states. They're constrained by the limitations of their charter. There's no enforcement to gain access under IHR (which btw the US is only a partial signatory of), there's no army to kick down the door to let them in.
Bottom line they were officially made aware on the 31st of December of 41 cases by China, by the 14th of January they were telling member countries to make preparations for a possible outbreak. The infamous no evidence of human to human transmission on the 12th of January which was informed by Chinese sources was almost immediately superseded on the 14th when at a press conference following cases in Thailand and Japan the lead officer for the investigation said human to human contact was likely. They're essentially a response resource to manage outbreaks by providing technical expertise largely to poor countries.
As soon as they got boots on the ground on the 21st they announced confirmed human to human transmission on the 22nd and had declared an emergency the following week (their process for doing so requires an international committee to be called which is admittedly poor). But even if they did most of the west didn't move on that warning, ironically Taiwan did the very next morning.
You can argue they should have boots on the ground quicker but they have to negotiate access. Hell the CDC used to have a surveillance team in China for this very sort of thing because of the worries that China would stonewall WHO. You can say they should have called China out, but they were still reliant on China for access to the initial source of the infection and what was throughout January and early February the best source of information about the virus.
I can't imagine the people of China appreciate this whole situation on a number of levels.
On the humanitarian side their government has handled this so poorly. A lot of parallels to Chernobyl. On top of that, they seem to be rushing to get back to "normal" and we've already heard of another wave of infections. This is stemming from a targeted lock down strategy.
Also, their economic distress may continue well into the recovery phase. There's a lot of worldwide anger and everyone is now well aware of the danger of running the supply chain through one source.
I think without a doubt that China is going to suffer dramatically in virtually every aspect of the Global economy after this. They continue to make serious mistakes that look horrible for them on the World stage. They are reopening the wet markets again that created this virus and they are talking about wanting to export edible snakes and bats. I mean just these 2 aspects alone are mind-numbing dumb on their part given the current situation
Before I can support an opinion that stopping the funding of the WHO would be a disaster, I need to understand why.
I also am not clear on how the WHO is stopping the spread of Coronavirus. Every country is doing their own thing pretty much and many of them got off to a rocky start here bolstered by the WHO tweet on January 14th stating that studies from China have shown no person to person transmittal of the infection.
If you believe some reports the WHO has been complicit in the Chinese coverup more than they are stopping the spread.
The US gave almost $1B to the WHO - that's more than the next 5 or 6 countries combined. The US gave $900M and China $80M, developing country my ass.
Link - ( New Window )
As more people die and financial hardship worsens are people really going to want to buy from products made in China (certainly there will be a percentage who won't)? I feel bad for the Asian people in this country as unfortunately I think they and their businesses will suffer as well at least in the short term.
Cutting money to WHO. Maybe they are concerns with corrupt leadership so this is a opportunity to place more trusted leadership within and holding funds gives strong leverage to do so.
As for Gates. We are not in a position to just listen to elected leaders. If you want to define folks who are conflicted in their role in the world and always vote their personal book...look up political officials since Athens
As for the CCP, I don't see them going away anytime soon.
We have seen dysfunctional leadership elites plague all kinds of political systems for decades despite the momentum downwards. Our own time frames between aligning to new reality ( 1865 to 1932 and 1973 to present), the EEU, Russia ( obvious example), Spain, Yugoslavia, etc. All took decades to unwind from the obvious. These "systems" are entrenched way past obsolescence and entropy and wind down over very long time frames.
I think they are knocked off their perch but the echo chamber of the system vested reduces the ability to see new realities for long long stretches
A previously apolitical political policy is being changed in the middle of a pandemic where they have direct responsibilities. As bigbluescot points out the WHO does and has been issuing information since January. This is a developing situation and I'm sure there are some flaws in that info but it was better that we got it than didn't - which is likely why we spend what we do in the WHO in the first place. It would have been in our benefit to have more info earlier and better info earlier, not less - which is the only thing pulling out accomplishes definitively. It's not the WHO's fault china (or any of their member states) isn't a model international citizen.
touché, fair enough.
A previously apolitical political policy is being changed in the middle of a pandemic where they have direct responsibilities. As bigbluescot points out the WHO does and has been issuing information since January. This is a developing situation and I'm sure there are some flaws in that info but it was better that we got it than didn't - which is likely why we spend what we do in the WHO in the first place. It would have been in our benefit to have more info earlier and better info earlier, not less - which is the only thing pulling out accomplishes definitively. It's not the WHO's fault china (or any of their member states) isn't a model international citizen.
The #2 contributor to the WHO, after the US is The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
My point is if the WHO never existed what would have conceivably happened? 20k plus US dead so far and counting?
I'm not saying stop funding or keep funding, I don't know enough to make that call. I'm trying to evaluate the "alarmists" responses with stopping funding to know what's real.
But like most of us, I really don't know what the WHO has done to limit the spread so far. If anything.
We be alone and left to our common sense to sort through.
No Guru, No Method, No Teacher.
all hail Van the Man
We be alone and left to our common sense to sort through.
No Guru, No Method, No Teacher.
all hail Van the Man
Well said.
In the spirit of understanding, it's also important to understand why the US should stop funding the WHO, right?
I'd argue independent of their direct Corona Virus efforts, and frankly independent of the mistakes they've made in relation to the Corona Virus -- funding for an organization that underpins many country's programs to combat other diseases and outbreaks is critical.
There are plenty of other health crisis in the world, that in parallel and in tandem with Covid 19 pose huge threats, and directly and indirectly threaten American health and national security.
Take a look at some of the reporting on the risk of measles in the developing world as access to vaccines is limited right now.
The world needs more attention and resources focused on global health care in the aggregate right now, not dramatic defunding.
This initial failure and the hubris (idiocy?) of not understanding there was already community spread in this country was the critical error. There have been reports of how if social distance measures started earlier, things would be better. If there were debates on this by decision makers, would it not have helped to know there was community spread in cities like NYC, before people started dying at the care home in Washington or going to the ER in Westchester?
To me that will be the historical error here, waiting too long to come to the realization there was already community spread, delaying the mitigation measures. that were needed.
The biggest factor in this was the CDC's crap test.
From my couch,that is how I see it.
I've been on the side of caution throughout all of this, but I still think Murphy has been over the top and a bit of clown during this....
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..
I've been on the side of caution throughout all of this, but I still think Murphy has been over the top and a bit of clown during this....
He doesnt tell you anything, he uses big numbers and fear to control everything
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In comment 14869185 nygiants16 said:
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..
I've been on the side of caution throughout all of this, but I still think Murphy has been over the top and a bit of clown during this....
He doesnt tell you anything, he uses big numbers and fear to control everything
Sounds familiar somehow.
This initial failure and the hubris (idiocy?) of not understanding there was already community spread in this country was the critical error. There have been reports of how if social distance measures started earlier, things would be better. If there were debates on this by decision makers, would it not have helped to know there was community spread in cities like NYC, before people started dying at the care home in Washington or going to the ER in Westchester?
To me that will be the historical error here, waiting too long to come to the realization there was already community spread, delaying the mitigation measures. that were needed.
The biggest factor in this was the CDC's crap test.
From my couch,that is how I see it.
I totally agree with you. It's like they just got the massive pass. They had a process that had zero failsafes, and the argument was the CDC is so competent there is zero chance of error. And honestly, the way they are always portrayed makes it seem like they are infallible. Well we found out the hard way that any process that involves people is pretty far from infallible. They have always demanded complete control over operations and they shit the bed, but strangely enough there hasn't been much made about it. Which is especially head scratching with all the blame being thrown around everywhere. Nobody benefits from blaming the CDC though, so its like they get a pass even though they are one of the biggest causes of where we are at.
I remember leadership was on one of the town halls in the beginning begging for an unlimited budget right after their snafu. I was appalled, because their error had nothing to do with a budgeting shortfall, but a process they have had in place for decades that relied on them to be perfect.
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In comment 14869185 nygiants16 said:
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..
I've been on the side of caution throughout all of this, but I still think Murphy has been over the top and a bit of clown during this....
He doesnt tell you anything, he uses big numbers and fear to control everything
His tough guy act and "let me worry about the virus" doesn't fly either. The guy was a lifetime Goldman Sachs banker that bought the governorship. Don't try to be something you clearly aren't.
And the shut down of parks, golf etc is absurd. What's next? Can't use our backyards? I want everyone to be safe but there has to be a modicum of normal life- especially doing activities that offer little to no risk.
It's not clear to me what effect the withdrawal of US funding will have on this WHO program, either immediately or in the future, but I assume this issue was considered in the making of this decision.
On a side note, I haven't had the time to look at BBI in days if not more than a week, and in skimming this thread just now, all I can say is WOW. Despite a few overt political blemishes, just an incredible collection of interesting, informed, reasoned, and impassioned conversations on a number of topics from various viewpoints. This is one reason why BBI is so good.
They seem to have fixed the issue, at least here in Tampa Bay. I have some friends that were having issues and they all have had it resolved.
Even if they are doing literally nothing around Covid 19, the last thing world health needs is other problems to spring up or worsen because the apparatus to help is crippled.
Even if they are doing literally nothing around Covid 19, the last thing world health needs is other problems to spring up or worsen because the apparatus to help is crippled.
Well the instruction was to suspend the funding pending investigation to understand if the WHO acted in bad faith during this pandemic which could in theory have cost American lives.
Scapegoating?
Perhaps, but I think there is at least enough information to question it.
And if there has been bath faith, I think the whole model should be reviewed and possibly adjusted.
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The WHO operates countless critical programs and services — from global vaccine coordination, global travel and information advisories, training, preventative and education programs, support of healthcare systems in poor countries, and acute action on outbreaks like polio and Ebola.
Even if they are doing literally nothing around Covid 19, the last thing world health needs is other problems to spring up or worsen because the apparatus to help is crippled.
Well the instruction was to suspend the funding pending investigation to understand if the WHO acted in bad faith during this pandemic which could in theory have cost American lives.
Scapegoating?
Perhaps, but I think there is at least enough information to question it.
And if there has been bath faith, I think the whole model should be reviewed and possibly adjusted.
What are your thoughts on timing? You were pretty clear earlier in this thread the time for analysis on missteps is for a later date, yes?
Right now when they are engaged in a bunch of activities that are non-COVID related to alleviate issues in poorer countries is not the time.
It’s theatre, and poorly scripted at that.
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good to see you back. Last you were on, I had mentioned how much of a disaster the unemployment claim process in Florida was. You haven't been following, I'm sure. But despite putting a call out for COBOL programmers to fix the site, they have all but scrapped an online claims process and have relied on paper/phones. Many despite efforts to make a claim have never been able to do so and in some cases the time has lapsed for when they can make a claim.
They seem to have fixed the issue, at least here in Tampa Bay. I have some friends that were having issues and they all have had it resolved.
Still a major problem here in the Jax area. I don't know anyone that has applied for it. My commentary is based on the reporting (News4Jax and First Coast News). There was one lady despite her efforts online and via phone was unable to file a claim. And now, apparently, the time window has lapsed.
Link - ( New Window )
It’s interesting. If you look at the new state UI claims, there are some states that had decreases week-on-week, and some pretty substantial.
Guess what caused it; backlog in the system because of an inability to access the site, and thus a push to (as you mentioned) paper forms.
This isn’t something that came out of the blue. This is at least partially a desire to make the process so onerous that people won’t apply.
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good to see you back. Last you were on, I had mentioned how much of a disaster the unemployment claim process in Florida was. You haven't been following, I'm sure. But despite putting a call out for COBOL programmers to fix the site, they have all but scrapped an online claims process and have relied on paper/phones. Many despite efforts to make a claim have never been able to do so and in some cases the time has lapsed for when they can make a claim.
It’s interesting. If you look at the new state UI claims, there are some states that had decreases week-on-week, and some pretty substantial.
Guess what caused it; backlog in the system because of an inability to access the site, and thus a push to (as you mentioned) paper forms.
This isn’t something that came out of the blue. This is at least partially a desire to make the process so onerous that people won’t apply.
I hate to think of such a sinister motivation to make the process so overwhelming that a claimant would just give up trying. As it pertains to Florida, there should be an investigation in the site's overhaul and relaunch in 2009. It was supposed to be a complete overhaul, but apparently they only put lipstick on the pig with a cleaner interface still relying on the legacy back-end. That is malfeasance and perhaps even criminal if an investigation reveals the misappropriation of taxpayer money.
Of course, it is certainly plausible that the state would be concerned about keeping numbers under control by making the process so difficult for claimants. This is the same state that wanted to initially deny the cruise ships with sick and dead passengers - not because there was concern in the spread, but the case numbers would increase.
I guess, feasibly, it may not be that; but given that we can stress test pretty much every organization, did we not think to do that during a bad recession when UI claims would jump?
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In comment 14869402 christian said:
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The WHO operates countless critical programs and services — from global vaccine coordination, global travel and information advisories, training, preventative and education programs, support of healthcare systems in poor countries, and acute action on outbreaks like polio and Ebola.
Even if they are doing literally nothing around Covid 19, the last thing world health needs is other problems to spring up or worsen because the apparatus to help is crippled.
Well the instruction was to suspend the funding pending investigation to understand if the WHO acted in bad faith during this pandemic which could in theory have cost American lives.
Scapegoating?
Perhaps, but I think there is at least enough information to question it.
And if there has been bath faith, I think the whole model should be reviewed and possibly adjusted.
What are your thoughts on timing? You were pretty clear earlier in this thread the time for analysis on missteps is for a later date, yes?
I don't find playing the blame game productive.
And that is what I have asked, many times, what is the impact of suspending US funding to the WHO.
Also, again, not sure what impact the WHO has on the pandemic response that makes the timing worse. the chicken little reactions remind me a little of net neutrality repeal where you had people saying "literally people will die if we remove net neutrality". Does anyone remember that anymore?
If it's other non COVID functions like malaria or polio vaccines in Africa then I'm ok with the US stopping funding temporarily during an investigation to make sure the WHO is in fact acting in a manner that supports their purpose.
but, again, I'm not clear on their actual role and value they provide beyond what other people who seem equally uninformed repeat from others.
A lot of these global organizations (some under the UN umbrella) like the WHO, WTO, UN themself, IMF, World Bank, etc. seem like they are disproportionately funded by the US, but I have zero clue how they work and why that makes sense.
It's an area I am woefully ignorant in, but I feel like most people are too. I am working on understanding it better, but the main point to the question I feel like I am consistent. Finger pointing makes no sense and is unproductive at this time, but that doesn't mean to continue funding something not in our collective best interest.
Florida is especially awful though. I remember when I was job hunting my vet counceler was adamant I use the States employment website. Shit was absolute garbage. People love the low taxes here, but this is the type of crap you have to live with.
Florida is especially awful though. I remember when I was job hunting my vet counceler was adamant I use the States employment website. Shit was absolute garbage. People love the low taxes here, but this is the type of crap you have to live with.
But you keep missing the point that I have made about the overhaul of the state's UI claim site that was overhauled in 2009. It was mandated then because of failures during the last recession. I'm not expecting a criminal investigation, but there should be. A lot of money was appropriated. When it seems is that the user interface was the only upgrade.
That would eliminate (in half) the budget for polio eradication; OR pay for the entire mother and infant care programs they put in place; OR eliminate half of the funding for communicable disease vaccine and prevention (influenza is a big one).
It's fine if we want to burn every bridge we have remaining for keeping the world's reserve currency, but there will be consequences to that. Mainly for our kids. But fuck 'em, right?
The value of that dataset is worth a lot; thousands of research papers are published annually using it, public policy is set using the datasets, etc.
The value of that dataset is worth a lot; thousands of research papers are published annually using it, public policy is set using the datasets, etc.
Should the funding come with any responsibility to America (sometimes referred to as strings attached)?
I'm not saying if it does or doesn't or should or shouldn't, but IMO that's why they are being scapegoated right now, if they are in fact being scapegoated.
Right, the US funded almost $900M last year I saw on record, and I want to say something like almost $600M was voluntary.
- If root cause analysis is best served for another day (finger pointing), should that apply to the WHO's action in January re: Covid?
- If this isn't about their Covid response, and is more about the WHO's overall value as an institution and the return on investment, does it make sense to suspend funding during an investigation?
- Is right now a prudent time for American resources in the global healthcare and geopolitical arena to spend time, focus, and resources on such an investigation?
- Is taking focus and funding off global health issues in Africa during an investigation a morally or practically acceptable course of action?
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They just don't see the value in upgrading. It's also a massive issue they face in recruitment. Go look at practically any government website where users interact. They look like they run on DOS.
Florida is especially awful though. I remember when I was job hunting my vet counceler was adamant I use the States employment website. Shit was absolute garbage. People love the low taxes here, but this is the type of crap you have to live with.
But you keep missing the point that I have made about the overhaul of the state's UI claim site that was overhauled in 2009. It was mandated then because of failures during the last recession. I'm not expecting a criminal investigation, but there should be. A lot of money was appropriated. When it seems is that the user interface was the only upgrade.
Yeah looking into it I have no idea how you spend 70 some odd million dollars and have such a shitty website. Florida's unemployment in general is appalling. Looks like we are getting a ton of money to fix it, that will probably be part of a stimulus package. One of the benefits of living in a swing state.
Sounds like a lobbyist who made the jump to Scott's team, gave the contract to his buddies at Deloitte. Business as usual unfortunately.
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There are already strings attached; there are compulsory and voluntary donations, which can be suggested for certain programs.
Right, the US funded almost $900M last year I saw on record, and I want to say something like almost $600M was voluntary.
That number sounds a bit higher than what I've seen (KFF pegged 2017 as a little over $500 million), and recently, for each $1 of mandatory, voluntary has been $2.5 to $4.
Combined with how they forced one of the ,now dead of COVID, young doctors who sounded the alarm to sign a rumormonger Communist loyalty oath, it could certainly be argued the totalitarian government of China helped this bad boy become a once in a century pandemic.
In a free society Doctor's and medical professionals who found and sounded the alarm about a new dangerous virus would be lauded as heros. Here is what happened in a totalitarian state:
Lots of interesting stuff in this piece. AP too, not a kooky conspiracy source.
Ye shall know the truth, and it shall set ye free - ( New Window )
- If root cause analysis is best served for another day (finger pointing), should that apply to the WHO's action in January re: Covid?
- If this isn't about their Covid response, and is more about the WHO's overall value as an institution and the return on investment, does it make sense to suspend funding during an investigation?
- Is right now a prudent time for American resources in the global healthcare and geopolitical arena to spend time, focus, and resources on such an investigation?
- Is taking focus and funding off global health issues in Africa during an investigation a morally or practically acceptable course of action?
Not sure what your goal here is.
I did not suggest withholding WHO funding nor did I come up with the reasons or the timing.
But if their advice and behavior to this point has not been "on the level" withholding funding from them pending an investigation is very different than root cause analysis or blaming someone even if there is an overlapping element of scapegoating.
My commentary on finger pointing and blame game being unproductive with the US-centric COVID-19 response never said if advice or guidance we have is bad keep using that same source.
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In comment 14869446 Zeke's Alibi said:
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They just don't see the value in upgrading. It's also a massive issue they face in recruitment. Go look at practically any government website where users interact. They look like they run on DOS.
Florida is especially awful though. I remember when I was job hunting my vet counceler was adamant I use the States employment website. Shit was absolute garbage. People love the low taxes here, but this is the type of crap you have to live with.
But you keep missing the point that I have made about the overhaul of the state's UI claim site that was overhauled in 2009. It was mandated then because of failures during the last recession. I'm not expecting a criminal investigation, but there should be. A lot of money was appropriated. When it seems is that the user interface was the only upgrade.
Yeah looking into it I have no idea how you spend 70 some odd million dollars and have such a shitty website. Florida's unemployment in general is appalling. Looks like we are getting a ton of money to fix it, that will probably be part of a stimulus package. One of the benefits of living in a swing state.
Sounds like a lobbyist who made the jump to Scott's team, gave the contract to his buddies at Deloitte. Business as usual unfortunately.
It is criminal malfeasance. Taxpayers were bilked. But I'm not surprised. Florida never surprises me. Just when the bar is set, there is another that has to clear it. I still don't know how mealy-mouth Scott was ever elected governor as prior to his stint in Tallahassee he was the CEO/President of Columbia/HCA overseeing the largest medicare fraud in the nation's history. He conveniently bailed from the company 4 months after the public announcement of the federal investigation taking $300M to line his coffers. Florida figures he is the right guy to lead the state and then doubles down and sends him to the US Senate. The fox is guarding the hen house.
I actually met his old man once, Gil, who was the LA DA for awhile & who some of you might remember from the OJ trial.
Also, again, not sure what impact the WHO has on the pandemic response that makes the timing worse.
I don't care if they are the keystone cops and the bad news bears rolled into 1, I'd personally prefer to defund the fire department when my neighborhood isn't on fire.
Separately re: data, like them or not this is the organization who led the field visits to Wuhan at the end of January and collected a trove a data that's been utilized by scientists and labs in our country. They've likely led a number of others since and collected tons of other data nobody else has, as kicker and others have mentioned more specifically. I can't imagine standing up another agency to fill that void is remotely practical right now.
Btw you know what else our $ went to? A functioning test that they offered to us and many other countries in January that we turned down and proceeded to royally screw up. But sure, let's beatdown the WHO for dropping the ball because China was less than transparent.
I couldn’t agree more, if the “advice or guidance we have is bad keep using that same source.” Especially as it applies to public officials.
I do have some knowledge of the WHO institutions. I have a good friend at UNICEF who has worked closely with WHO and a family member who runs a very notable public/private science institution.
From what I know the organization is not immune to the typical bureaucratic and inefficiencies of an international institution. They also underpin the coordination and effectiveness of the annual flu vaccine through the Collaborating Centers for Reference and Research on Influenza, are at the frontlines of thwarting a global polio outbreak through the GPEI, and are the primary resource fighting Ebola.
Personally, I wouldn’t want to risk those initiatives over the mistakes they made at the outset of this situation.
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Also, again, not sure what impact the WHO has on the pandemic response that makes the timing worse.
I don't care if they are the keystone cops and the bad news bears rolled into 1, I'd personally prefer to defund the fire department when my neighborhood isn't on fire.
Separately re: data, like them or not this is the organization who led the field visits to Wuhan at the end of January and collected a trove a data that's been utilized by scientists and labs in our country. They've likely led a number of others since and collected tons of other data nobody else has, as kicker and others have mentioned more specifically. I can't imagine standing up another agency to fill that void is remotely practical right now.
Btw you know what else our $ went to? A functioning test that they offered to us and many other countries in January that we turned down and proceeded to royally screw up. But sure, let's beatdown the WHO for dropping the ball because China was less than transparent.
that analogy works only if they're helping put out the fire.
If the bad news bears and keystone cops shows up when you're house is on fire and say "it's fine" it's not really harming anything, is it? And not having that there will cause what exactly?
Is it best to achieve this goal by:
1) Saying nothing and getting data as long as you can?
Or
2) Being critical of its leaders so they have to defend themselves internally this early in the process of getting enough knowledge to be helpful to scientists, model makers and decision makers?
1 or 2 ?
Is it best to achieve this goal by:
1) Saying nothing and getting data as long as you can?
Or
2) Being critical of its leaders so they have to defend themselves internally this early in the process of getting enough knowledge to be helpful to scientists, model makers and decision makers?
1 or 2 ?
What if you do #1 but you're not actually getting data, you're getting lies - only you don't know it because you simply accept what they say?
Could there be a 3rd option instead of criticizing leaders forcing them to be defensive but to apply pressure, go public in a responsible manner that isn't so critical but more "worrisome" like "we don't want to blame or criticize you, but we're concerned for the safety of the world and we want to help"
Instead of parroting possible misinformation or at best unverified information under the guise of "data" maybe they had a bigger responsibility.
but isn't it also possible #2 may have sounded the right level of alarm sooner on a global scale?
Look, I truly don't know the answer, I am not pretending I am an expert with any of this stuff, just with the limited information I've read I kind of hope there is a 3rd choice.
China’s not been transparent and I’ve long suspected something about how this started (accidental contamination-lab) but let’s be real: there was enough info out there to be concerned about this and preparing more in February (being generous). Much of the media was reporting about this regularly back then. I don’t feel like the WHO held back our response - our leadership just wasn’t listening or wasn’t willing to upset the market. It is what it is. Let’s not make things worse at this juncture - very concerned about Africa right now.
Until you’re no longer a superpower or a global reserve currency because you just decided to print $2 Trillion ... and trillions counting ...
To completely shut down an economy for months, at least - and give $2900 checks to Lots of people who still have jobs and no financial hardship from covid
People are not going to want USD as a reserve currency after a century plus because we wouldn’t sponsor the WHO? What??
Somebody else said above China shouldn’t have to pay the WHO or for the pandemics they keep unleashImg because they are still developing. Ok then.... go look up their gdp for fucks sake
We were tracking urns and incinerators and casket consumption and lines and listening since decades ago.
Did you know we can get a postage stamp accurately from space
We went our own way in our own time
The rest is a game
Given our resources in the world there is only one deficient actor to blame.
To quote Pogo commenting on the Korean War: "We have met the enemy and he is us"
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is a responsibility of being the global reserve currency. Imagine what happens if interest payments skyrocket if there is a concerted effort to not have the dollar as the reserve currency because we played hardball over a relatively small sum...
Until you’re no longer a superpower or a global reserve currency because you just decided to print $2 Trillion ... and trillions counting ...
To completely shut down an economy for months, at least - and give $2900 checks to Lots of people who still have jobs and no financial hardship from covid
People are not going to want USD as a reserve currency after a century plus because we wouldn’t sponsor the WHO? What??
Somebody else said above China shouldn’t have to pay the WHO or for the pandemics they keep unleashImg because they are still developing. Ok then.... go look up their gdp for fucks sake
1. We haven't been the global reserve currency for 100+ years.
2. The global reserve currency status has been under some fire for some time now. We have weathered the storm because the rest of the world is a shitshow. But if that shitshow unifies and gets support from developing countries that we want to play tiddlywinks, yes, it is in play.
3. It's very simple game theory; if we renege (or play hardball) on something like this, what happens when we are asked to share a larger burden? This is not a winning strategy for international games.
Did you know we tracked 11 portable incinerators driven to Wuhan in January and could see they were put into use 24-7?
Did you know we claimed 5x the number of funeral urns were sent or produced for Wuhan in early February?
We didnt need no stinking WHO.
We needed to listen and follow through on reality instead of wishing for the universe we wanted
20 trillion.
How do you think we can live as sloppy as we do?
Is it best to achieve this goal by:
1) Saying nothing and getting data as long as you can?
Or
2) Being critical of its leaders so they have to defend themselves internally this early in the process of getting enough knowledge to be helpful to scientists, model makers and decision makers?
1 or 2 ?
I have to say, this make a great deal of sense.
We were tracking urns and incinerators and casket consumption and lines and listening since decades ago.
Did you know we can get a postage stamp accurately from space
We went our own way in our own time
The rest is a game
Given our resources in the world there is only one deficient actor to blame.
To quote Pogo commenting on the Korean War: "We have met the enemy and he is us"
I believe you, but none of this is information I have other than hearsay.
In addition to what you say about urns and caskets, I have read that China was "killing" infected people so they couldn't pass the disease to others - I doubt it, but who knows.
I read that china's largest national cell phone service (China Mobile, Ltd) users had 8 million less subscribers now than before the pandemic. Combined, their 3 largest cell phone companies lost 21M combined subscribers from December to March. Some of that is attributed to migrant workers not located in China canceling their plans back home, some unemployment related, and some people question maybe they didn't really have "only" 3800 dead or whatever they claim.
And I've also read other things filed under "conspiracy theory" talk like the lines of caskets and urns.
I am just not privy to that or other non public information to know what's real and what isn't.
Ignore their talk. Just go by actions.
Put the list of those who responded well on the other side of the ledger
Which ledger is longer?
Then follow this simple truth about humans:
"Listen to what children say and watch what adults do"
We didnt need no stinking WHO.
We needed to listen and follow through on reality instead of wishing for the universe we wanted
Exactly. So why pay them .... 10x what China (a developing country apparently) does?
As far as your question earlier about working with Vs antagonizing a communist dictatorship that hid then censored if not murdered medical whistleblowers early in this thing ... then sets out propaganda for months that the US is behind this pandemic ....
Your politics have come through on this like all of ours have ... and you know I respect the hell out of you over the years ... but it’s clear
It’s not that simple
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In comment 14869318 kicker said:
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is a responsibility of being the global reserve currency. Imagine what happens if interest payments skyrocket if there is a concerted effort to not have the dollar as the reserve currency because we played hardball over a relatively small sum...
Until you’re no longer a superpower or a global reserve currency because you just decided to print $2 Trillion ... and trillions counting ...
To completely shut down an economy for months, at least - and give $2900 checks to Lots of people who still have jobs and no financial hardship from covid
People are not going to want USD as a reserve currency after a century plus because we wouldn’t sponsor the WHO? What??
Somebody else said above China shouldn’t have to pay the WHO or for the pandemics they keep unleashImg because they are still developing. Ok then.... go look up their gdp for fucks sake
1. We haven't been the global reserve currency for 100+ years.
2. The global reserve currency status has been under some fire for some time now. We have weathered the storm because the rest of the world is a shitshow. But if that shitshow unifies and gets support from developing countries that we want to play tiddlywinks, yes, it is in play.
3. It's very simple game theory; if we renege (or play hardball) on something like this, what happens when we are asked to share a larger burden? This is not a winning strategy for international games.
One can easily argue the standard since 1919. Very lazily Bretton Wood but even that is 76 years do not sure what you are arguing other than your politics
And if you look back as far as 2005-6, you will find that I have labeled the long term threat of China as exactly that.
To me, my objection is to introducing a small issue distraction at this time.
It's pure spin cycle distraction.
Look out the windows of any NY apartment and you will see more and more people out with each day.
I submit some of that is our mayor, governors and feds and advisors not staying on message.
The more fragmented a message festooned with gaudy sidelights the less compliance with the message.
You know this completely from your own work.
That's my objection. Not their politics...their effectiveness.
They work for us. All of us.
And i submit for consideration that we are lost if we cant critique issue by issue effectiveness with out listeners conflating and logic leaping what they see on a page.
Like all people someone can be great at ten things and botch the next. Some can be laughingstock and get the next crisis just right ( Guiliani for ten days after 9-11.)
Hope that's clearer
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In comment 14869558 MetsAreBack said:
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In comment 14869318 kicker said:
Quote:
is a responsibility of being the global reserve currency. Imagine what happens if interest payments skyrocket if there is a concerted effort to not have the dollar as the reserve currency because we played hardball over a relatively small sum...
Until you’re no longer a superpower or a global reserve currency because you just decided to print $2 Trillion ... and trillions counting ...
To completely shut down an economy for months, at least - and give $2900 checks to Lots of people who still have jobs and no financial hardship from covid
People are not going to want USD as a reserve currency after a century plus because we wouldn’t sponsor the WHO? What??
Somebody else said above China shouldn’t have to pay the WHO or for the pandemics they keep unleashImg because they are still developing. Ok then.... go look up their gdp for fucks sake
1. We haven't been the global reserve currency for 100+ years.
2. The global reserve currency status has been under some fire for some time now. We have weathered the storm because the rest of the world is a shitshow. But if that shitshow unifies and gets support from developing countries that we want to play tiddlywinks, yes, it is in play.
3. It's very simple game theory; if we renege (or play hardball) on something like this, what happens when we are asked to share a larger burden? This is not a winning strategy for international games.
One can easily argue the standard since 1919. Very lazily Bretton Wood but even that is 76 years do not sure what you are arguing other than your politics
You know fuck all about my politics.
But the show leads to magnification of differences not one message for now...stay home and protect yourself.
The speculation and blaming is a contributor to fraying consent of the governed.
A Russian once told me that when he visited America he went home thinking of sausages.
He said our messy democracies and political messes exposed for all to see reminded him of taking a tour of a sausage factory.
In the end it tastes good but you would never want to see it getting made.
Years after that I did a job for the Board of Hormel. It's true. Took me about six years to even try sausage again.
So, Bretton Woods.
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Also, again, not sure what impact the WHO has on the pandemic response that makes the timing worse.
I don't care if they are the keystone cops and the bad news bears rolled into 1, I'd personally prefer to defund the fire department when my neighborhood isn't on fire.
Separately re: data, like them or not this is the organization who led the field visits to Wuhan at the end of January and collected a trove a data that's been utilized by scientists and labs in our country. They've likely led a number of others since and collected tons of other data nobody else has, as kicker and others have mentioned more specifically. I can't imagine standing up another agency to fill that void is remotely practical right now.
Btw you know what else our $ went to? A functioning test that they offered to us and many other countries in January that we turned down and proceeded to royally screw up. But sure, let's beatdown the WHO for dropping the ball because China was less than transparent.
Bingo
Yeah there are sporadic examples of reserve currency interventions ( im thinking of JP Morgan) but it's not debatable from Bretton Woods onwards.
The battle of the BOE, the Rothschilds and the four German majors kinda got themselves impotent by 1910. Imo
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In comment 14869443 pjcas18 said:
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Also, again, not sure what impact the WHO has on the pandemic response that makes the timing worse.
I don't care if they are the keystone cops and the bad news bears rolled into 1, I'd personally prefer to defund the fire department when my neighborhood isn't on fire.
Separately re: data, like them or not this is the organization who led the field visits to Wuhan at the end of January and collected a trove a data that's been utilized by scientists and labs in our country. They've likely led a number of others since and collected tons of other data nobody else has, as kicker and others have mentioned more specifically. I can't imagine standing up another agency to fill that void is remotely practical right now.
Btw you know what else our $ went to? A functioning test that they offered to us and many other countries in January that we turned down and proceeded to royally screw up. But sure, let's beatdown the WHO for dropping the ball because China was less than transparent.
that analogy works only if they're helping put out the fire.
If the bad news bears and keystone cops shows up when you're house is on fire and say "it's fine" it's not really harming anything, is it? And not having that there will cause what exactly?
again, they developed a working test we didn't take and issued some warnings we didn't act on in February - the countries who used those tests widely and took things seriously earlier have had the best outcomes. they look a lot less keystone cops than we do.
the reserve currency goes to the country that is a force for stability, trading and shipping, global health, emergency responsiveness, keeps a steady hand, has stable transparent legal/taxation policies that it honors and works for win win alliances. Most of all, it is dependable.
Its worth 15-20 trillion per year to us. Now, as opposed to earlier decades, we collapse without it because of the debt we rung up
Name what we are doing to earn that?
America (fuck yeah)!!
You're quoting bullshit and you're making an ass out of yourself. When Snopes doesn't FULLY support you with their political bend, you know you're on the wrong track.
What's True
The U.S. did not use COVID-19 diagnostic tests produced by the World Health Organization (WHO) in favor of producing its own.
What's False
The U.S. did not turn down an offer to use those tests (as no such offer was extended), nor was it unusual for the United States to design and produce its own diagnostic tests in lieu of those made elsewhere.
Furthermore from factcheck.org, a non-partisan site that adds a little more context that snopes left out:
Secondly, which countries are you referring to?
South Korea?
Stop comparing countries the size of Kentucky with the entire US. It's silly. Besides the obvious geographic differences, they have a fraction of our population, controllable borders, and a much less free society used to and willing to allow government overreach including things like GPS tracking and stripping of civil liberties.
Even comparing to Germany is also silly as a 1 to 1 comparison.
If you want a realistic comparison to a federation of states like the US, compare the US response to all or most of countries in Western Europe combined. On a per capita basis when you consider Western Europe the US response was as or more effective.
We all look the same or similar when the comparison is meaningful, but when you cherry pick "but look...South Korea" sure they're different from us and not a meaningful comparison.
Now, I'm not saying the response here was perfect or even good, it wasn't, but stop overstating it for emphasis by comparing it in intentionally misleading ways.
Isn't it possible both things are true?
Our testing was/is lagging and inexcusable (without adding in debunked bullshit), but also China lied, is ultimately responsible for this situation, and the WHO was complicit, or at best not truly representative of the best interests of the other 194 countries on the planet.
None of us can speak to that answer in great detail because nobody can, whatever after action analysis takes place will likely take months if not years of investigative work and the WHO will be a piece of a larger picture. But to try to answer your original question one last time the risk of defunding them now is that they aren't the enemy, the virus is the enemy, how competently or incompetently they've acted I don't know but they have done things attempting to be helpful (like the tests) and some of the most trustworthy public commentary we've got on the subject has been supportive. The alternative proposed with the funding seems nebulous at best.
But I suppose we move on to whatever tomorrow's question is because you seem unconvinced on this one.
I couldn’t agree more, if the “advice or guidance we have is bad keep using that same source.” Especially as it applies to public officials.
I do have some knowledge of the WHO institutions. I have a good friend at UNICEF who has worked closely with WHO and a family member who runs a very notable public/private science institution.
From what I know the organization is not immune to the typical bureaucratic and inefficiencies of an international institution. They also underpin the coordination and effectiveness of the annual flu vaccine through the Collaborating Centers for Reference and Research on Influenza, are at the frontlines of thwarting a global polio outbreak through the GPEI, and are the primary resource fighting Ebola.
Personally, I wouldn’t want to risk those initiatives over the mistakes they made at the outset of this situation.
A lot of the bureaucracy and inefficiencies are by the design of the member states who probably rightly chafe against the notion of an international body removed from direct voter oversight having any real teeth.
A lot of the commentary around the role of the WHO fail to recognise they're not the Virus police, they don't do enforcement and they're reliant on memberstates and the almost non-existent power of the International Health Regulations (of which the US is only partially signed up to) to gain access.
They can't report on rumor, and outside of Africa their monitoring is almost all member state led. Which means they're limited in the direct criticism they can make, there's always a bit of ball washing they have to do to keep access. China formally notified them on the 31st of December (hence COVID-19), WHO announced it on the 5th, then as additional reports came in they updated the guidance but those reports were all from the Chinese: including the infamous no evidence of human to human transmission release on the 12th, but once cases involving Chinese nationals from Wuhan appeared in Thailand, Korea and Japan which didn't fit with the Chinese it was just one fish market (because WHO were able to interview them) they started changing their guidence. By the 14th they were saying while human to human transmission was not proven given what they knew of MERS and SARS and this diseases relationship with those diseases that countries should prepare for a possible outbreak and it was likely that it was communicable via human to human transfer.
Once they got boots on the ground after negotiations with the Chinese they confirmed human to human transfer in one day and you can ask why it took 9 days after that to call an international health emergency but it's because they're not allowed to do so without convening an independent international committee first. It's illustrative to note the countries which had dealt with MERS and SARS largely reacted after that committee was first called on the 22nd of January.
WHO aren't perfect, no organisation is but there structural deficiencies by design mainly because while the major powers would be happy with WHO telling the poorer countries of the world what to do and when they really don't want the WHO doing the same to them.
The next phase will be in opening the government and it appears at least to me the only consideration is going to be minimizing the body count and using that as the barometer of success.
The good news is that we still have the states and the private sector. It's sad, but it's a real benefit of federalism. The states are gigantic entities themselves and our private sector is a behemoth. The interest of the states and the private sector is in getting the economy open as soon as possible without everyone getting infected.
I'm only saying this because a lot of people are (rightfully) feeling real anxiety over the inaction by the federal government. Well, the bright side is that the US has a lot more tricks up its sleeve than just the federal response. Most of the states have done the right thing (albeit a bit late in many cases). The private sector is ramping out testing volume (see Abbot labs) and large employers are going to have detailed cautious plans about opening offices back up.
No, we're obviously nowhere near ready to open things back up at any large scale, but there's reasons to feel hopefully even despite the federal government's bungling of the situation. We're just going to have to sit tight for a while longer. Everyone wants to know when this will be over and looks at all the data coming in the news every day, but there's no quick answer coming. Get through April, then reassess, get to Memorial Day, then reassess, etc.
The feds shouldn't be issuing one size fits all orders.
IMO, it should be handled, with federal guidance, at a state level. As of yesterday, that was the way it was left.
At the same time, while we're all getting antsy, we're probably in for another week or so (of more) of staying as is. In the meanwhile, there's no need to announce any details. The power brokers are in the back room, smoking cigars, working out deals, writing plans and revising them as necessary as additional science info (and/or lobbyist money) comes in. When the time comes, the plan(s) will be released. Until then, have a beer and relax.
They can reopen slowly before the money comes in, but states need more funding for tests to open at a larger scale safely
Metnut asks why there is no comprehensive federal plan to re-open the "country" but there is a divide among people saying it's not up to the federal government, it's up to each state.
Some of those same people are also spewing hate that the Federal government didn't act sooner and close things down.
So, it seems they feel like the federal government should have been responsible for closing everything, but the states, and only the states, have the say in when they open.
Why couldn't/shouldn't the states have made the close plans too?
I don't understand the disconnect.
I don't know who is responsible for what, but it seems like a lot of people are suddenly experts on the 10th amendment, but still want to hold the federal government accountable for things when they break.
I think the state approach is the right one, states coordinate regionally, and make coordinated plans for how/what will "open" and when. When they need support or cohesion the federal government should help (travel, interstate commerce, supplies, etc.)
I feel like this is legitimate new ground, like in this has never happened before to this extent, but people act like it should be simple. I don't know how you logistically prioritize this preparation vs other competing interests, but it's clear no one was prepared for this, and because it's so rare I understand that. I'm looking at the states and federal government to collectively get through this (not pushing for one or the other).
Bluescot that’s in line with the my understanding and what I’ve been told by folks in the industry.
If the US has concerns with the approach, they absolutely should file with WHO and bring it to the UN formally.
Stopping funding is not a proper or productive channel. False equivalencies aside, compromising program level funding is irresponsible.
But it's not wrong to ask the feds for help, as they have the means to help in such a large scale issue. I mean, isn't that their job, to assist the states?
I think most are concerned that the feds are saying you're on your own, but they collecting supplies that the states are trying to acquire in some instances. And, the message from the top is very inconsistent. You're responsible, but we'll make decisions for you......inconsistent.
But it's not wrong to ask the feds for help, as they have the means to help in such a large scale issue. I mean, isn't that their job, to assist the states?
I think most are concerned that the feds are saying you're on your own, but they collecting supplies that the states are trying to acquire in some instances. And, the message from the top is very inconsistent. You're responsible, but we'll make decisions for you......inconsistent.
Agree, to me, a non-expert, the materials and equipment distribution was not well coordinated (to be polite), and that's something I said all along should be fixed. The logistics around PPE, ventilators, tests etc was a clusterfuck and the stockpile had been whittled away to 25% of recommended levels since 2009 and every year since 2009 the CDC recommended replenishing it, and every year it was ignored.
that logistical piece needs to be corrected in real time, and I think to an extent it has.
Which means that the average application is asking for about $220,000 for an 8 week period.
And it looks unlikely it gets re-funded this week.
Which means that the average application is asking for about $220,000 for an 8 week period.
And it looks unlikely it gets re-funded this week.
1 organization I work with got approval this am but the vast majority haven't heard anything. It seems a foregone conclusion that it will get refunded, hopefully the banks can use the time to sort through the applications to have the process in better shape whenever they get more $.
Quote:
WHO aren't perfect, no organisation is but there structural deficiencies by design mainly because while the major powers would be happy with WHO telling the poorer countries of the world what to do and when they really don't want the WHO doing the same to them.
Bluescot that’s in line with the my understanding and what I’ve been told by folks in the industry.
If the US has concerns with the approach, they absolutely should file with WHO and bring it to the UN formally.
Stopping funding is not a proper or productive channel. False equivalencies aside, compromising program level funding is irresponsible.
I mean they were literally asking for $20 million to continue to fund the Ebola monitoring in Congo last week so something is going to have to give.
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which means that only about 5.3-percent of small businesses applied (or had the ability to).
Which means that the average application is asking for about $220,000 for an 8 week period.
And it looks unlikely it gets re-funded this week.
1 organization I work with got approval this am but the vast majority haven't heard anything. It seems a foregone conclusion that it will get refunded, hopefully the banks can use the time to sort through the applications to have the process in better shape whenever they get more $.
What a joke. My bank didnt participate, by the time I was able to find one that did and try and schedule a meeting it’s already too late. Of course.
But don’t worry, while people stress about paying bills which crop up daily, the benefits WILL be retroactive; once they can get the systems up and running...
Ebola, polio, and deeper flu outbreaks are high risks to take, when there are avenues to raise concerns that don’t include cutting off program funding.
Ebola, polio, and deeper flu outbreaks are high risks to take, when there are avenues to raise concerns that don’t include cutting off program funding.
My big worry is that they will cut mother and child health programs, or have to rescale them, given our earmarking of voluntary funds to those endeavors. Any cuts there would have decades-long repercussions.
His primary point seems to be that the Nationwide economic shutdowns in numerous nations is unwarranted! He also seems to not care much about old folks dying...
Israeli medical officials and resources have blasted the dude, but just in case you're curious the link is attached.
I am becoming very suspicious of this source: "The Times of Israel."
A bit lower on the page they show a violinist playing "Hatikva", the Israeli national anthem, on his balcony to "resounding applause" in Madrid. The applause sounds canned from an indoors pre-recorded source, although the visual of the video might be legit.
Israel math Prof predicts Covid infection pattern wanes naturally. - ( New Window )
Ebola, polio, and deeper flu outbreaks are high risks to take, when there are avenues to raise concerns that don’t include cutting off program funding.
Rick Scott, I read, is going to lead the investigation.
but some question if this is even constitutional.
There is some precedent for the US doing this (or things like it), I believe Reagan froze funds to the UN "on the ground that the organization is inefficient, wasteful and often contrary to American interests" and in 2011 Obama de-funded UNESCO (Trump later withdrew altogether), but I don't think either of those were unilateral.
The correlation between when shelter in place was started AND the cumulative increase in initial unemployment claims is -0.12; suggesting that the economic harm is not coming ONLY from shelter in place (and that demand would be considerably depressed regardless). The correlation between the change in the initial claims between 3/28 and 4/4 is 0.16, which means that states that had later shelter in places are seeing more new UI claims (as the effects trickle down).
Alabama: 9.06 (1.22)
Alaska: 11.36 (0.02)
Arizona: 5.23 (-0.78)
Arkansas: 12.78 (7.99)
California: 10.58 (0.21)
Colorado: 4.08 (-0.47)
Connecticut: 4.94 (0.02)
Delaware: 10.35 (-0.03)
DC: 11.36 (0.12)
Florida: 4.64 (-0.56)
Georgia: 10.70 (5.16)
Hawaii: 17.01 (0.65)
Idaho: 8.84 (-0.15)
Illinois: 7.98 (0.37)
Indiana: 10.12 (-0.58)
Iowa: 9.60 (0.34)
Kansas: 8.80 (-0.37)
Kentucky: 13.99 (0.25)
Louisiana: 13.54 (0.14)
Maine: 11.28 (1.10)
Maryland: 7.44 (0.82)
Massachusetts: 12.58 (-1.11)
Michigan: 17.5 (1.62)
Mississippi: 6.81 (1.24)
Missouri: 7.68 (-0.18)
Montana: 10.82 (0.33)
Nebraska: 6.65 (0.25)
Nevada: 16.16 (0.52)
New Hampshire: 12.64 (1.55)
New Jersey: 12.21 (0.21)
New Mexico: 7.91 (-0.22)
New York: 8.60 (-0.24)
North Carolina: 8.16 (-0.68)
North Dakota: 8.44 (0.64)
Ohio: 12.43 (-0.82)
Oklahoma: 7.14 (0.87)
Oregon: 6.65 (1.00)
Pennsylvania: 16.98 (-2.05)
Rhode Island: 17.08 (0.03)
South Carolina: 7.85 (0.93)
South Dakota: 3.66 (0.33)
Tennessee: 7.53 (0.54)
Texas: 5.44 (0.29)
Utah: 5.11 (0.28)
Vermont: 10.45 (0.61)
Virginia: 7.08 (0.77)
Washington: 12.82 (-0.43)
West Virginia: 4.20 (0.04)
Wisconsin: 8.89 (-0.20)
Wyoming: 5.25 (0.66)
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In comment 14869318 kicker said:
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is a responsibility of being the global reserve currency. Imagine what happens if interest payments skyrocket if there is a concerted effort to not have the dollar as the reserve currency because we played hardball over a relatively small sum...
Until you’re no longer a superpower or a global reserve currency because you just decided to print $2 Trillion ... and trillions counting ...
To completely shut down an economy for months, at least - and give $2900 checks to Lots of people who still have jobs and no financial hardship from covid
People are not going to want USD as a reserve currency after a century plus because we wouldn’t sponsor the WHO? What??
Somebody else said above China shouldn’t have to pay the WHO or for the pandemics they keep unleashImg because they are still developing. Ok then.... go look up their gdp for fucks sake
1. We haven't been the global reserve currency for 100+ years.
2. The global reserve currency status has been under some fire for some time now. We have weathered the storm because the rest of the world is a shitshow. But if that shitshow unifies and gets support from developing countries that we want to play tiddlywinks, yes, it is in play.
3. It's very simple game theory; if we renege (or play hardball) on something like this, what happens when we are asked to share a larger burden? This is not a winning strategy for international games.
I'm not too worried about the status of being the world's reserve currency. The pre-COVID trends I saw from the BIS and IMF still showed the dollar padding its lead in the composition of forex reserves and then the pandemic will likely accelerate this further (past studies and current data supporting this).
I'd expect less of an isolated threat from China and more of a threat from a consortium of states, but that may be more unlikely in a post-COVID world with a renewed sense of state sovereignty. The gears were already in motion for de-globalization but this will most likely accelerate and materially weaken the growth trajectory of China and other EMs. Fragmentation will likely benefit the incumbents.
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It’d be awesome to know who is executing this several month investigation, what programs the US is pulling funding from, and if the CDC will be contributing and participating in the WHO’s flu coordination this year.
Ebola, polio, and deeper flu outbreaks are high risks to take, when there are avenues to raise concerns that don’t include cutting off program funding.
Rick Scott, I read, is going to lead the investigation.
...
You have got to be kidding me. I guess a fraudster would know where to look.
You missed the rest of it: "We slowed the infection rate by our actions, and that's why we're in a better position today.'
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Cuomo says projections now way below originally predicted and the rate of infection as of this moment is R.9..
You missed the rest of it: "We slowed the infection rate by our actions, and that's why we're in a better position today.'
yes, but he also said the projection was 100k to 200k day even with those measures in place, it is even better than that..
in any event good news, hopefully it stays that way
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In comment 14870110 christian said:
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It’d be awesome to know who is executing this several month investigation, what programs the US is pulling funding from, and if the CDC will be contributing and participating in the WHO’s flu coordination this year.
Ebola, polio, and deeper flu outbreaks are high risks to take, when there are avenues to raise concerns that don’t include cutting off program funding.
Rick Scott, I read, is going to lead the investigation.
...
You have got to be kidding me. I guess a fraudster would know where to look.
LOL...yeah, his reputation in the healthcare community isn't so good..........spot on.
Yeah, 0.9 or 9, isnt an R O of 9 and end times kinda spread?
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rate is now R.9, what was it during the peak in NY?
Yeah, 0.9 or 9, isnt an R O of 9 and end times kinda spread?
cuomo said .9
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rate is now R.9, what was it during the peak in NY?
Yeah, 0.9 or 9, isnt an R O of 9 and end times kinda spread?
Cuomo said the R0 was 0.9, or just below the point where the virus spreads freely through a population (R0 > 1)
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In comment 14870394 bc0312 said:
Quote:
rate is now R.9, what was it during the peak in NY?
Yeah, 0.9 or 9, isnt an R O of 9 and end times kinda spread?
Cuomo said the R0 was 0.9, or just below the point where the virus spreads freely through a population (R0 > 1)
cool
thats good news
NY needs to get the R0 to .6-.5ish if it wants to have a summer that resembles anything close to normal.
NY needs to get the R0 to .6-.5ish if it wants to have a summer that resembles anything close to normal.
How would NYC even survive with months and months of full closure like this.
I know how dangerous this all can be, but seriously, what happens when no one goes to work.
I'm paraphrasing, but if one person infects one other person they can maintain healthcare capacity through to October or later. But if one person infects just 10 percent more. So 1:1.1 then the healthcare system capacity will last only until August, if it's 20% more than that (so 1:1.2) then they'll run out of capacity by June.
It's a good illustration to help show that guidelines are working, but if you let up you can blow it.
Contingencies probably need to be built into any re-opening plans to allow for pivots if things get out of control.
Anyone interested should be able to find the video easily.
I'm paraphrasing, but if one person infects one other person they can maintain healthcare capacity through to October or later. But if one person infects just 10 percent more. So 1:1.1 then the healthcare system capacity will last only until August, if it's 20% more than that (so 1:1.2) then they'll run out of capacity by June.
It's a good illustration to help show that guidelines are working, but if you let up you can blow it.
Contingencies probably need to be built into any re-opening plans to allow for pivots if things get out of control.
Anyone interested should be able to find the video easily.
Cuomo had similar information and a great deck this morning. He included the current rate of infection for NY which is below 1. Good news since we broke our economy to get there.
But, there is no way the plan can be to just keep everything turned off for months and months. More likely will have to be some going back and changing behaviors, new technologies, cleaning methods, treatments, communication of outbreaks, I don't know, I am not smart enough.
I do think, that just keeping everything in suspended animation could lead to disaster. The world did spin prior to the blessings of vaccines and modern medicine. We will all have to learn to live with this risk. I do not mean this in a callous way, but what is the alternative? NYC can exists for months, I have heard some "experts" say a year and half? With no school? No working? No commerce? Besides unknown and untold social costs, can the government just print money forever and create a welfare state on steroids for 18 months? Which, to me, seems an incredibly ambitious timeline for a vaccine. That would be an all time human race achievement.
Maybe Washington can print money forever and pay everyone to stay in? I'll leave that to the economic pros,I have my doubts though. To me the real reality will be the new normal of living in a world truly threatened by a deadly contagious disease, essentially the world state for 99 percent of human history. There was the world before the virus, and now there will be the world after.
But, there still has to be a world.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
But, there is no way the plan can be to just keep everything turned off for months and months. More likely will have to be some going back and changing behaviors, new technologies, cleaning methods, treatments, communication of outbreaks, I don't know, I am not smart enough.
I do think, that just keeping everything in suspended animation could lead to disaster. The world did spin prior to the blessings of vaccines and modern medicine. We will all have to learn to live with this risk. I do not mean this in a callous way, but what is the alternative? NYC can exists for months, I have heard some "experts" say a year and half? With no school? No working? No commerce? Besides unknown and untold social costs, can the government just print money forever and create a welfare state on steroids for 18 months? Which, to me, seems an incredibly ambitious timeline for a vaccine. That would be an all time human race achievement.
Maybe Washington can print money forever and pay everyone to stay in? I'll leave that to the economic pros,I have my doubts though. To me the real reality will be the new normal of living in a world truly threatened by a deadly contagious disease, essentially the world state for 99 percent of human history. There was the world before the virus, and now there will be the world after.
But, there still has to be a world.
Trump with the state governors came out with a plan to reopen, 3 phases, which will be up to the state governors when they are ready to move to each phase..
before they can start phase 1 state must have 14 straight days of a downward trend
Florida’s beleaguered state unemployment system processed only 33,623 of the estimated 850,000 applications it has received since the coronavirus crisis began, the new director of the program said Thursday.
Universal testing and a vaccine ....or reopening will be a disaster.
I would presume by simply breathing in close proximity to someone or their face then common objects.
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and have no symptoms(no sneezing or coughing) how would you be able to transmit the virus?
I would presume by simply breathing in close proximity to someone or their face then common objects.
Should have said touching their face then common objects
Universal testing and a vaccine ....or reopening will be a disaster.
You can not wait until a vaccine to open
Universal testing and a vaccine ....or reopening will be a disaster.
This number is supported by a few other large scale testing of non symptomatic people, I think this might be a good thing in that we will reach herd immunity sooner than we think while the death rate will be much lower than we believe. I’m not in anyway educated in this topic but it seem as if we aren’t diagnosing 10x-20x the number of cases out there and most people aren’t getting sick at all. This isn’t to say that we should go back to normal tomorrow.
We really need to learn more about this virus.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
I hope it works but - there is no control arm on the study. The leak is citing anecdotal evidence. How many other factors are there that could have skewed the results of what was observed? How would patients of the same population have fared without it?
Everyone spits when they talk. Everyone. Whether you know it or can see it or not. Microscopic droplets. Everyone.
The PGA TOUR today announced that the 2020 Travelers Championship is currently scheduled as a TV-only event, broadcast by CBS and the Golf Channel, June 25–28. Conducting the tournament without crowds on-site is in the best interest of protecting everyone, including the Connecticut community at large.
Those who purchased tournament tickets through Ticketmaster will automatically receive a full refund within 30 days.
We are committed to delivering a world-class PGA TOUR event that provides 100% of net proceeds to worthy causes throughout the region. This will include supporting our core charity partners, as well as organizations dedicated to COVID-19 relief efforts. Fans interested in contributing to tournament charities can do so by visiting TravelersChampionship.com.
I am ready for any sports to return to my TV. But I live next to the course so it will be really weird to not have spectators. We will get to watch golf but won't be pocketing any cash parking cars in the yard.
I wonder if the players are on board with this?
probably just a matter of time before MA closes too IMO.
A state senator has been quoted describing the system -
You aren't unemployed if you can't be counted - ( New Window )
lol same here. I'm actually planning a tailgate in my backyard for myself and my wife and kids for the draft Thursday once I finish work.
Will the finger lakes have to wait till NYC is ready? For example.
Cases are plateauing as the total testing is plateauing but the positivity rates aren't decreasing.
A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat - ( New Window )
Probably for the best, they gave her the choice of working on a COVID unit, but she's have to live there for 12 weeks.
She declined.
It's not that she didn't want to help (or that she'd miss me and the kids too much, lol) her parents are elderly and she's been doing the shopping and errands for them to keep them out of the retail environments to the extent possible.
Plus, her passion and training is home care and sub-acute (short term rehab), not an acute setting.
It is sort of surprising to me how many in health care are being furloughed or laid off.
Will the finger lakes have to wait till NYC is ready? For example.
It will be interesting to see how it is implemented state by state. Certainly, less populated regions will meet the suggested Phase Guidelines earlier than NYC. But it maybe difficult to implement a regional plan. Take PA for example. Philly area maybe lagging to meet the criteria whereas Williamsport has had minimal impact.
A state senator has been quoted describing the system -
Quote:
"It was purposely built to discourage people. You can drive down unemployment numbers by manipulating systems,” she says. “If you’re not in the system you’re not ‘unemployed.’ And that makes numbers look very different. And that is a scheme that is really criminal.”
You aren't unemployed if you can't be counted - ( New Window )
It might be a pain in the ass, but that goes for practically filling out anything government related. The only thing I've seen them make easy is filling out taxes, gee I wonder why.
Anyway, everyone I know that has been furloughed or laid off has been able to get their benefits. A pain in the ass? Absolutely, but no one is not going to get their UI benefits, many can't survive without them and its money people are entitled to that I can't imagine many people just leaving on the table.
But, there is no way the plan can be to just keep everything turned off for months and months. More likely will have to be some going back and changing behaviors, new technologies, cleaning methods, treatments, communication of outbreaks, I don't know, I am not smart enough.
I do think, that just keeping everything in suspended animation could lead to disaster. The world did spin prior to the blessings of vaccines and modern medicine. We will all have to learn to live with this risk. I do not mean this in a callous way, but what is the alternative? NYC can exists for months, I have heard some "experts" say a year and half? With no school? No working? No commerce? Besides unknown and untold social costs, can the government just print money forever and create a welfare state on steroids for 18 months? Which, to me, seems an incredibly ambitious timeline for a vaccine. That would be an all time human race achievement.
Maybe Washington can print money forever and pay everyone to stay in? I'll leave that to the economic pros,I have my doubts though. To me the real reality will be the new normal of living in a world truly threatened by a deadly contagious disease, essentially the world state for 99 percent of human history. There was the world before the virus, and now there will be the world after.
But, there still has to be a world.
I think Germany's chancellor put it really well. She's got a PHd in Quantum Chemistry and was a working scientist so she's got the statistical side of it in a way a lot of other leaders don't seem to have grasped.
The deaths are terrible but the fundamental issue is healthcare capacity that's the damaging factor because they're a death magnifier and if healthcare breaks down so does society at large. Germany have the healthcare capacity currently under control and the R0 (the reproductive number of the virus: aka how many people one infected person will infect) of the virus around or under 1.
So they're going to start reopening their economy in stages: no mass gatherings but they're going open non-essential stores albeit with social distancing measures (aka limited number of people allowed in, asking shoppers to observe spacing etc) and allow non-essential workers to return to work however if you can work from home continue to do so etc. No restaurants or bars atm. Then they'll continue to test at a high rate. If R0 stays at or under 1, they'll open it up some more. If it goes above 1 they'll take localised measures. And so on.
Here's some of her speech with English translation. It's very clear. She went a lot further in German about what the loosening would entail.
Basically, get it under control within your healthcare systems capacity. Slowly open up your economy while continuing to test as much as you can, aggressively jump on any hotspots with local targeted tightening if necessary.
In the absence of a vaccine, then new treatments will increase healthcares ability to cope with COVID patients. But knowing where the virus currently is, how much of your population is infected and has been infected and how the virus is currently replicating is the key.
Link - ( New Window )
Will the finger lakes have to wait till NYC is ready? For example.
Dr birx mentioned It could be down to county by county
You do that too soon, and you absolutely gut the healthcare system. Providers, nurses, support staff will retire/quit. People will get burned out. There will be decreases in the number of healthcare workers, and we already have dramatic shortages.
Everyone talks in terms of "regulatory effect" on inhibiting activity. This is the infinite regulatory effect in healthcare.
You do that too soon, and you absolutely gut the healthcare system. Providers, nurses, support staff will retire/quit. People will get burned out. There will be decreases in the number of healthcare workers, and we already have dramatic shortages.
Everyone talks in terms of "regulatory effect" on inhibiting activity. This is the infinite regulatory effect in healthcare.
We need two months, maybe 2 1/2 months more of hard social distancing, just to let this surge of infection die down, build up mass test capacity, and allow the pharma company who owns remdesivir to ramp up production of the drug as it apparently looks promising as a bridge treatment before we get a vaccine
You do that too soon, and you absolutely gut the healthcare system. Providers, nurses, support staff will retire/quit. People will get burned out. There will be decreases in the number of healthcare workers, and we already have dramatic shortages.
Everyone talks in terms of "regulatory effect" on inhibiting activity. This is the infinite regulatory effect in healthcare.
100% - i think a lot of people forget that people aren't getting regular check ups right now, or even surgeries for stuff that isn't an emergency now but could be if they wait. We can't keep overloading hospitals, people will start dying due to other causes at a higher rate with longterm neglect of their other healthcare needs.
My father, an electrician for the city he lives (and considered essential since its for the outdoor parks + marinas) just put in his retirement papers this morning. He's had it. My best friends wife is a nurse in Philly and is close to quitting. My wife's best friend is a doctor in Hartford and she may take a leave of absence until this is all over.
People aren't going to take this shit much longer if these infection rates don't drop dramatically.
Today Trump takes care of all the "family business".
And then the "government overreach" with things like "non-essential" items being prohibited for sale at retail stores like Walmart and Target that remain open and preventing people from traveling between homes they own (in the same state) is probably pushing people too hard.
this period is only going to be most effective if the majority obey the guidelines. Making the guidelines unnecessarily restrictive (if they are) will help give people an excuse to be non-compliant.
Speaking of which, it is Friday. Anyone sanitizing their throats, yet?
(link is to a google search as I didn't want to link to a site that has a liberal/conservative bias)
Sipping on Sanitizer - ( New Window )
A state senator has been quoted describing the system -
Quote:
"It was purposely built to discourage people. You can drive down unemployment numbers by manipulating systems,” she says. “If you’re not in the system you’re not ‘unemployed.’ And that makes numbers look very different. And that is a scheme that is really criminal.”
You aren't unemployed if you can't be counted - ( New Window )
Yeah; even though "workfare" is mentioned in a lot more recent state bills, that's the same shady practice that limits applications in lots of places (even though workfare has been built into a lot of the social safety net systems for decades).
Quote:
There is a lot of ill-informed talk about re-opening the economy.
You do that too soon, and you absolutely gut the healthcare system. Providers, nurses, support staff will retire/quit. People will get burned out. There will be decreases in the number of healthcare workers, and we already have dramatic shortages.
Everyone talks in terms of "regulatory effect" on inhibiting activity. This is the infinite regulatory effect in healthcare.
100% - i think a lot of people forget that people aren't getting regular check ups right now, or even surgeries for stuff that isn't an emergency now but could be if they wait. We can't keep overloading hospitals, people will start dying due to other causes at a higher rate with longterm neglect of their other healthcare needs.
My father, an electrician for the city he lives (and considered essential since its for the outdoor parks + marinas) just put in his retirement papers this morning. He's had it. My best friends wife is a nurse in Philly and is close to quitting. My wife's best friend is a doctor in Hartford and she may take a leave of absence until this is all over.
People aren't going to take this shit much longer if these infection rates don't drop dramatically.
A whole other issue is that since people are stopping going to these things, independent provider practices are being eviscerated left and right.
Doctors are asking for advances on Medicare claims because they don't have cash flow.
2)allowing retail stores to provide product pickups beginning on April 24th
3)Reopen state parks next Monday but you must wear
MASKS.
4)All schools will remain closed for the rest of the school year.
Additional openings will be announce on April 27th.
I do too, I have it May 14, I feel like almost no chance we'll get called in.
Schools and non essential businesses are closed, they tell me not to leave my house, but then they call me for jury duty?
Quote:
I've mentioned it before with both of you on Florida's UI claims process and the overall broken system. Kicker even suggested a more sinister motive to drive down the numbers and while I hate to give credence to such a theory, there certainly is motivation to keep reported unemployment numbers low not just now during the current pandemic.
A state senator has been quoted describing the system -
Quote:
"It was purposely built to discourage people. You can drive down unemployment numbers by manipulating systems,” she says. “If you’re not in the system you’re not ‘unemployed.’ And that makes numbers look very different. And that is a scheme that is really criminal.”
You aren't unemployed if you can't be counted - ( New Window )
It might be a pain in the ass, but that goes for practically filling out anything government related. The only thing I've seen them make easy is filling out taxes, gee I wonder why.
Anyway, everyone I know that has been furloughed or laid off has been able to get their benefits. A pain in the ass? Absolutely, but no one is not going to get their UI benefits, many can't survive without them and its money people are entitled to that I can't imagine many people just leaving on the table.
Are you kidding? This is Fla, getting forms and standing in line:
People in FL are literally risking their lives to get UI.
After Saturday, we (in NY) don't have a choice.
if it was just a bad website and non working computer system you could count it as poor governance
but the fact is at the same time they were 'revamping " website they also slashed the number of weeks someone can claim unemployment by half shows that all this was very deliberate to discourage anyone from trying to claim unemployment .
The weird part is that it isn't welfare -- it is unemployment INSURANCE!-- workers pay into the system to fund the insurance ..
it is mind boggling
Quote:
They tested the entire 4,800 member crew of the Roosevelt. 60% of the positives were asymptomatic.
Universal testing and a vaccine ....or reopening will be a disaster.
This number is supported by a few other large scale testing of non symptomatic people, I think this might be a good thing in that we will reach herd immunity sooner than we think while the death rate will be much lower than we believe. I’m not in anyway educated in this topic but it seem as if we aren’t diagnosing 10x-20x the number of cases out there and most people aren’t getting sick at all. This isn’t to say that we should go back to normal tomorrow.
I just don't see her immunity being a thing here. I also have some concerns as to whether a successful vaccine can be quickly made.
I hope that I am wrong.
I walk and run my dog without a mask, but if I run into people and I'm not maintaining the distancing, then you have to put one on. So you have to carry one with you.
If there is a venn diagram of age, other health issues (high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, heart condition, etc.), and positive for COVID-19, and died (not just admitted to a hospital), I think the people who only die of COVID19 under a certain age (say 40) would be a pretty tiny spot of the venn diagram.
I heard on one of the news shows, more people over 100 will die from COVID19 than people under 20 (maybe 25).
Immense resources and brain power should be devoted to it, but treatments likely to come first and for decision making a vaccine should be viewed as a bonus.
That is not being less optimistic, that is the realistic thinking I hope the decision makers have.
I'm not that much different than before this started, however, my past comments may have been construed. I'm watchful and trying to learn all I can before speaking in absolutes (I try to almost never speak in absolutes anyway). I can say, however, that this virus is mystifying to me. I learn both more and more and less and less every day.
if it was just a bad website and non working computer system you could count it as poor governance
but the fact is at the same time they were 'revamping " website they also slashed the number of weeks someone can claim unemployment by half shows that all this was very deliberate to discourage anyone from trying to claim unemployment .
The weird part is that it isn't welfare -- it is unemployment INSURANCE!-- workers pay into the system to fund the insurance ..
it is mind boggling
Say what you want about it, but it's paid for by employers. This was one of the things done to attract businesses to the state after the housing crisis crushed Florida which has relied predominantly on the tourist industry. Trust me I think UI here is a joke and wish there was a better way, but many of things FL has done for the business environment has brought a ton of corporations here.
Schabadoo, I don't know where you got that gif from, but it definitely seems way out of the norm. I know a TON of people that needed to go on UI and everyone got it after the initial rush within a week.
'He’s also one of the hundreds of thousands of Floridians who say the jobs website is absolutely impossible.'.
100 servers added to help FL UI website - ( New Window )
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
Good afternoon everyone! The IHME model just updated again. As always, models are fed new info as it comes in to recalibrate its predictions. Let's see what has changed since its last update on Monday:
4:22 PM · Apr 17, 2020·Twitter Web App 13 Retweets 28 Likes
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
17m
Replying to
@Alicia_Smith19
Overall US:
-# of total deaths decreased from 68,841 to 60,308
-Projected bed shortage at peak increased from 3,948 to 8,127.
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/10 to 4/14 peak daily death toll went from 4/13 to 4/15
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/27 to 5/10
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
17m
Individual state: NY
-Peak hospital went from 4/8 to 4/15. Peak daily death toll went from 4/10 to 4/16
-Total deaths now projected to be 21,812 instead of 14,542
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/12 instead of 5/1.
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
17m
State: FL (some big moves here):
-Peak hospital use expected to be on 4/14 instead of 5/3
-Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/2 instead of 5/6
-Total deaths now projected to be 1,363 instead of 4,748
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 5/3 instead of 6/1
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
17m
State: NJ
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/15 instead of 4/9
-Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/16 instead of 4/8
-Total deaths projected went from 4,407 to 6,952
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/9 instead of 4/28
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
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12m
State: VA
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/27. Peak daily death toll now expected to be on 4/25 instead of 4/28
-Total deaths projected went from 1,188 to 763.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected went from 5/3 instead of 5/14
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
9m
State: MI
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have be on 4/10 instead of 4/8. Peak death toll stays the same at 4/10.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,373 to 3,304.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected went from 4/26 to 5/3.
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
6m
State: IL
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been today instead of 4/10. Peak daily death toll expected to be on 4/19 instead of 4/8.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,248 to 2,259.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected went from 4/23 to 5/4.
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
4m
State: LA
-Peak hospital use was on 4/14 instead of 4/6. Peak daily death toll projected was 4/14 instead of 4/8.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,141 to 1,685.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/28 instead of 4/19.
people stayed on the beaches and out in public at spring break seemingly longer (or later) than other places, they have an older population (5th oldest on average), some densely populated cities.
Either they are really behind the other states in terms of timing and they're going to get slammed or whatever they have done/are doing is working.
Same with Texas.
I know New Orleans has been hit hard, but maybe somehow warm weather has an impact.
5 worst states in the US, NY, NJ, MA, MI, PA,
I can deal with soreness
people stayed on the beaches and out in public at spring break seemingly longer (or later) than other places, they have an older population (5th oldest on average), some densely populated cities.
Either they are really behind the other states in terms of timing and they're going to get slammed or whatever they have done/are doing is working.
Same with Texas.
I know New Orleans has been hit hard, but maybe somehow warm weather has an impact.
5 worst states in the US, NY, NJ, MA, MI, PA,
The warm weather may not get rid of it, but it could knock down the time it stays on services or in the air
@Alicia_Smith19
·
3m
The IHME model authors have added a suggested date of relaxing of restrictions for each state based on the data. These dates will also be updated going forward.
NY: 6/1
FL: 6/1
NJ:6/1
MI: 5/18
TX: 6/1
VA:6/8
CA: 5/18
IL: 5/25
GA: 6/15
LA: 5/18
NC: 5/11
MD: 6/8
MA: 6/8
My wife just told me that 10 residents at that nursing home are dead and 20 more are infected.
Sickening.
I can not explain how I feel and how difficult this has been for everyone involved. We lose sight into just how many lives in the hospital were impacted by all of this. Start from the person who cleans, through the food staff and everyone all the way up to my level.
The level of fatigue, fear and sheer exhaustion is taking its toll but more importantly will continue to do so for a very long time. The psychological and physical trauma on the health care system can not be underestimated. I have seen nurses whom I dated as a young man and trusted break down and become mere humanoids in face of what we have seen. There is no way to describe the aftermath but clearly many of us will never be the same.
As I look over the landscape, I am not afraid to say that the management of this crisis has been an unmitigated disaster. At multiple levels of government, but especially the federal side, the incoherence of the message mixed in with untruths and downright false information have hurt our country more than anything I can think of. What our president was thinking about besides his reelection is not clear to me. But certainly, in a time when leadership was required it was wanting at multiple levels.
Partisanship has and had no place in this debate about what to do and how to react. Our lives are and were at stake. We are far from the finish line. I know it and so do my colleagues. Politics has no business in this health crisis.
We have mistakenly assumed that all would be fine and that we were prepared. From a healthcare perspective, clearly this is far from the truth. We may have been saved by needing fewer ventilators but the downright abysmal supply of materials that still do not exist remains a huge problem. How do you go to war without guns? Our army certainly would not but they ask me and others to do so on a daily basis for altruistic reasons. Well for me and others that may not be something we are prepared to do. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I could feel like this but the reality of being surrounded by incompetence and untruths is taking a toll on even the most resilient amongst us.
So, where do we go from here? Our president seems hellbent on opening up the country at all costs to help the economy which is very understandable. I understand the human cost and have enormous sympathy and empathy for those involved. However, our slowness to respond, our gaffes that were never admitted and the contagion of this virus will make this return to normal difficult if not lengthy.
Sitting here with some colleagues today we all agree that testing and more testing is key. Herd immunity whether by massive infection or through vaccination is the only way out of this quagmire. Testing gives us answers we must have. Novel vaccines are coming and some treatments presently in clinical trials may be useful, but they are not enough because they are so far into the future.
We must maintain the distancing, minimize large gatherings and comport ourselves like we have over the last 6 to 8 weeks. If testing ever gets up to the speed required we may then be able to breathe easier as we focus on hotspots while allowing cooler areas to continue to function. This is the paradigm that we must envisage. Do not be fooled by false claims, non scientific banter and crazies who will make you believe otherwise. If ever there was a case to listen to science and its scientists it is now. We must for the sake of all that is America, work and play in the future with the same conviction and zeal of the past few months. I believe, as do many others in science that anything less may unfortunately doom us to repeat again from the word go a trial that will be more complex than the one we are presently in. Let us hope we are up to the task.
Remember, the resilience that has seen you through these tough days is the same resilience that will repair your body and heart and lift you to a better self, not defeated by what you've seen, but strengthening you for the life ahead.
Speaking of which, it is Friday. Anyone sanitizing their throats, yet?
(link is to a google search as I didn't want to link to a site that has a liberal/conservative bias) Sipping on Sanitizer - ( New Window )
Peg Leg Porker Bourbon.
link - ( New Window )
[quote][/quote]
It is crazy and any "plan" to do so without those things is completely cart before the horse. Not to mention an invitation to a more devastating outcome: having to start the lockdown again from square one if the outbreak surges back.
Also, imagine the number of people who won't participate in this "re-opening," before there is readily available testing, proven treatments, or even vaccination. It's a large group and trying to jump start the economy without them participating fully is going to be problematic at best.
Bank of America CEO: Focus on virus first - ( New Window )
Yeah, I'm sure. But this also could explain how summer can maybe slow the spread and why FL and TX have done well.
I've sort of felt like anecdotally in Massachusetts that we've been fortunate to have a cooler spring (I'm getting 3 - 5 inches of snow tonight/tomorrow) because people weren't itching to get outside and they've been mostly listening to shelter in place guidelines. If the weather was warm and sunny I feel like they'd ignore it and go out.
But maybe if we had some hot humid weather it will inherently slow the spread.
don't know.
If this quarantine hit in January it would have been miserable.
One of the worst parts of this entire thing is feeling like there is no impartial information and not knowing what to actually believe. You read one thing and the next article is completely the opposite. It makes me stay away from most of it altogether. My opinion is very few people actually have a clue, and everyone else just believes whatever they want to be true and that there is some article somewhere to back it up.
Aside from that and it being a Friday I say we all across BBI raise our glasses together no matter what we agree or disagree on and remember we're all in this together.
One of the worst parts of this entire thing is feeling like there is no impartial information and not knowing what to actually believe. You read one thing and the next article is completely the opposite. It makes me stay away from most of it altogether. My opinion is very few people actually have a clue, and everyone else just believes whatever they want to be true and that there is some article somewhere to back it up.
Aside from that and it being a Friday I say we all across BBI raise our glasses together no matter what we agree or disagree on and remember we're all in this together.
glass raised, "Salute"
Absolutely, it’s definitely different from location to location. I run and dodge people, often just go into the busy street because people NEED to walk side by side on a sidewalk. But as long as I’m paying attention I have time to move. That’s really the only thing I come across, everywhere else including the grocery store has been pleasant.
One of the worst parts of this entire thing is feeling like there is no impartial information and not knowing what to actually believe. You read one thing and the next article is completely the opposite. It makes me stay away from most of it altogether. My opinion is very few people actually have a clue, and everyone else just believes whatever they want to be true and that there is some article somewhere to back it up.
Aside from that and it being a Friday I say we all across BBI raise our glasses together no matter what we agree or disagree on and remember we're all in this together.
I don't know if the report is accurate, but I do think it's legit. Do you follow the link? There is some fucked up shit posted there - I think it's all from a security/intel reporter.
And has about 31% of the COVID-19 cases.
Ultimately, the rate of hospitalization is the most crucial indication of the state of the situation.
Open the economy a little, and keep an eye on the hospitals. If the rate can be handled, open it a little more.
No one with a sound mind is saying to shake up the soda bottle, pop the top, and see what happens.
It isn't an all or nothing scenario.
Meanwhile, testing is getting better, and we're learning more about the virus.
any rational person can see that it'll be a balance between business and infection. I don't pretend to know where that balance is, and neither should anyone else. But we do need to figure out where that balance is.
I would hope that they are monitoring the rate of infection in the various groups of people: fully sheltered/working from home, people who are out working but not on the front lines, people who work in semi front lines (cashiers), etc. It would give a good clue as to whether we need to shut down businesses. If it turns out social distancing is the main factor in driving down infection rates, wouldn't it make sense to allow work to resume where the risk allows?
#TogetherAsOne - except when we are not. Brigadier Bonespurs was critical of criticism leveled at the federal response and implored the nation to unify. I guess that is over.
And has about 31% of the COVID-19 cases.
Sou
Higher then our prison rate of 22% of the worlds prsioners
Wonder why he didn't mention Ohio, W Virgina, or Montana that have the same laws in place?
And can anyone explain to me how the US has 32,000 and counting when China lost 4,000? This makes absolutely no sense. I know the Chinese implemented hyper quarantines but they presumably were subject to the initial two week asymptomatic periods that spread this here in NYC and tristate. And while our social distancing and quarantine weren’t as absolute as China we had further warning. It just makes no sense to me how Chinese contained this in Hubei, but couldn’t contain it from the rest of the world.
And can anyone explain to me how the US has 32,000 and counting when China lost 4,000? This makes absolutely no sense. I know the Chinese implemented hyper quarantines but they presumably were subject to the initial two week asymptomatic periods that spread this here in NYC and tristate. And while our social distancing and quarantine weren’t as absolute as China we had further warning. It just makes no sense to me how Chinese contained this in Hubei, but couldn’t contain it from the rest of the world.
Because China is lying
I find this hard to believe for several reasons, but mainly because even with the increase in all the testing over the last couple of weeks, the % of positive cases is still only 20% of those tested. I also find it hard to believe that the virus was around much before when the first cases were reported, based on what I read about the DNA testing of mutations and their clear links to the first few cases, to put it in an over-simplified way.
If this study holds true, it means that we potentially completely over-reacted and the death rate will end up being around that of the flu, .1% approximately.
What am I missing ? Has anyone seen this study ?
Stanford study: More than 48K Santa Clara County residents have likely been infected by coronavirus - ( New Window )
And has about 31% of the COVID-19 cases.
Higher testing and international travel ?
1. New York is the most densely populated area of the country. This doesn’t fly. Its true the four most dense counties in the country are New York(Manhattan), Bronx, Kings ( Brooklyn ) and Queens. But the fifth most dense county in the country is San Francisco with a population of about 900,000. San Francisco has about 20 deaths total. Density also doesn’t explain why Long Island and Jersey have similarly horrible numbers.
2. New York sees more international arrivals than anyplace else. This also doesn’t fly ( no pun intended ) JFK + EWR sees about 110,000,000 passengers per year. SFO saw about 55,000,000 passengers in 2019. I don’t know what the breakdown between domestic and international is, but its clear that Northern California sees much more air traffic per capita than New York and obviously it sees a higher proportion of Asian travel than New York. I’m not even counting what comes into LAX or SEA that winds up in Northern California.
1. New York is the most densely populated area of the country. This doesn’t fly. Its true the four most dense counties in the country are New York(Manhattan), Bronx, Kings ( Brooklyn ) and Queens. But the fifth most dense county in the country is San Francisco with a population of about 900,000. San Francisco has about 20 deaths total. Density also doesn’t explain why Long Island and Jersey have similarly horrible numbers.
2. New York sees more international arrivals than anyplace else. This also doesn’t fly ( no pun intended ) JFK + EWR sees about 110,000,000 passengers per year. SFO saw about 55,000,000 passengers in 2019. I don’t know what the breakdown between domestic and international is, but its clear that Northern California sees much more air traffic per capita than New York and obviously it sees a higher proportion of Asian travel than New York. I’m not even counting what comes into LAX or SEA that winds up in Northern California.
It got a much bigger toe-hold of asymptomatic cases there before the lockdown and spread a lot faster due to modes of crowded transit, crowded elevators, crowded offices, streets. It's the only explanation. And a huge amount of people only work there and spread it all over the boroughs, counties, etc.
Quote:
Thats the question I keep asking myself. Why has the New York area become the epicenter of the world ? Although my wife and I have the good fortune ( so far ) of sitting this out in California, most of my family is in New York. In fact I have a pregnant niece that works as a nurse with COVID patients in one of the worst hotspot hospitals in the country. So I ask myself , I ask my relatives , I read the news and I listen to Cuomo to try and figure out how this thing got so out of control in New York. I haven’t been able to find an answer as to why it is, but there are some things that it is not.
1. New York is the most densely populated area of the country. This doesn’t fly. Its true the four most dense counties in the country are New York(Manhattan), Bronx, Kings ( Brooklyn ) and Queens. But the fifth most dense county in the country is San Francisco with a population of about 900,000. San Francisco has about 20 deaths total. Density also doesn’t explain why Long Island and Jersey have similarly horrible numbers.
2. New York sees more international arrivals than anyplace else. This also doesn’t fly ( no pun intended ) JFK + EWR sees about 110,000,000 passengers per year. SFO saw about 55,000,000 passengers in 2019. I don’t know what the breakdown between domestic and international is, but its clear that Northern California sees much more air traffic per capita than New York and obviously it sees a higher proportion of Asian travel than New York. I’m not even counting what comes into LAX or SEA that winds up in Northern California.
It got a much bigger toe-hold of asymptomatic cases there before the lockdown and spread a lot faster due to modes of crowded transit, crowded elevators, crowded offices, streets. It's the only explanation. And a huge amount of people only work there and spread it all over the boroughs, counties, etc.
But I submit social distancing is only one of the health measures we need to take and we over rotate on its effects in a crowded city where daily public transport usage pre exceeds 3M per day.
With the number of office buildings and the degree office surfaces and public surfaces are omni present in the life of the population in the 30 days before shutdown...Im going to submit that every elevator, stairway, MTA gate, cash register, ATM was a petri dish to touch.
So of the two good habits...not touching and washing hands frequently and social distancing...I submit the first counts more in certain urban settings.
And im also going to submit that based on the fall sickness rate in Eastern Colleges with high international student rates - this sucker has either been with us longer or earlier illnesses worked the population to more vulnerable
Then you have all the commuters from the area doing the same so it makes sense. Trains, MegaBus and the Chinese buses that operate around the Tri-State area and into Philly. Look at how many businesses (other than food) receive and sell products from China owned by Chinese Americans.
California is a surprise as I would think they would have received a lot of these flights. Stanford researchers said that probably 50-80 times what that data shows probably have been infected and are fine now. As more data comes in hopefully they can identify more reasons for this. The same for Vegas.
NY messed up by not shutting down sooner when the warnings were out there. They more than any other state should have been aggressive (Ohio governor shut things down before NY-think about that). In almost mid-march Diblasio was encouraging people to go out.
The governors can complain what they did not have all they want. The common link between the Fed and State gov'ts was money imo. Nobody wanted to just shut down as we all see the ramifications are immense.
that's some fuckin awesome leadship
OK to open the big box stores, but can't sell paint, carpet and garden supplies. So instead of people taking care of their houses and staying off the streets, they have less they can be doing. So, you can fix the walls, buy the lumber and drywall, but you can't paint it or stain it....leadership? or ignorant despot flailing away without a clue and then digging in?
Would this not have happened earlier if the virus was spreading for months through such high numbers in the population?
I hope that is true, and that it is less deadly overall and many may already be immune, but something seems off about it.
To get to the bottom of it is is needed to test everyone? Like literally, everyone in NYC. Is that even possible?
Quote:
sorry, was that political?
that's some fuckin awesome leadship
OK to open the big box stores, but can't sell paint, carpet and garden supplies. So instead of people taking care of their houses and staying off the streets, they have less they can be doing. So, you can fix the walls, buy the lumber and drywall, but you can't paint it or stain it....leadership? or ignorant despot flailing away without a clue and then digging in?
How many and how tough would that be to do? This seems like the million dollar question, how many have actually had this.
Why didn't it boom big there first instead of roughly the same time as here?
In this age of mass global transit, there is no such thing as cities being sheltered from exposure. Boston and Philly are big international hubs, too, as is DC, Atlanta, and on and on. From there, there are connections to all the areas of the US. On my Portuguese tour in Feb, only the northwest section of USA was not represented. If this virus is so dang contagious, all areas of the country are getting exposed along similar timelines. some areas more intense, sure, but it is baffling as to why NYC is a drastic hotspot, but not Boston.
The problem to date has been availability of testing. That is rapidly improving.
I continue to believe that rate of hospitalization/healthcare required is the bottom line. We have a good handle on that. Now, with more testing available, we have another tool to evaluate and make decisions.
After a very hectic onslaught, I think the scientific community should be getting some grasp on the situation. A lot of it will take time to grind out solutions, but that doesn't mean we won't have information and tools to manage a balance of business, infection, and quality of life. If you want answers by Monday, you're going to be disappointed. That doesn't mean you won't know more in a week, or a month.
I look at this as they say in the military a cluster f...
Is there a definitive guideline for reporting cases? Is that guideline being consistently and accurately reported by all states? Not sure it is.
Much of the data being collected will reveal a lot of answers in the coming months once properly analysed.
Anyone expecting smooth, coordinated action on anything with such a sudden onslaught into uncharted waters is going to be sadly mistaken.
I'm sort of amazed things have gone as well as they have.
The big cluster fuck was the availability of PPE. From what I understand, that was a fubar years in the making.
From my view in upstate NY, it's much the same. If it weren't for the news, I wouldn't know how dire my odds of living are, or that I need to hoard TP.
Many people in NYC share apartments and are unable to socially distance.
I don't think states should be treated the same. They have to really control cross state transportation though....this will be key imo.
Lots of states are really hurting financially. We need to get as many people back to work as possible but some states are going to get crushed that rely on tourism long term regardless.
I bought this up very early in this thread but I still see two critical vulnerabilities.
1. Better solution for Home Care and Nursing home personnel. These people are in contact with most vulnerable. Better solutions to this problem are needed.
2. Manpower. Obviously you can't train doctors in the short term. But Nurses/technicians were already in high demand. Take advantage of those out of work. Modify/train some of these to help fill the void and protect against attrition. Offer bonuses and other incentives. I am one to believe there are many capable people in society. Screen and train with deliberate and refined programs.
But other states have been hit very hard as well. Michigan's population is 10m people and they have 2k+ deaths. That's more than the entire country north of their border and would put them close to the top 10 deaths by country. Louisiana's population is less than 5m so their 1.2k deaths are actually higher per capita than Michigan. Illinois and Massachusetts are also each over 1k total deaths.
The west coast has fared a lot better despite Washington state having the earliest known hotspot, but I think a lot of that is structural benefits over NYC (more distance, a lot less mass transit, more sunlight) and probably just luck that it didn't arrive in the higher density areas too long before the shutdown.
On to some positive news it seems like experts are gaining more confidence in the math behind the testing needed to re-open safely - this is from the Harvard Global Health Institude (via nyt):
That level of testing is necessary to identify the majority of people who are infected and isolate them from people who are healthy, according to the researchers. About 20 percent of those tested so far were positive for the virus, a rate that the researchers say is too high.
“If you have a very high positive rate, it means that there are probably a good number of people out there who have the disease who you haven’t tested,” said Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “You want to drive the positive rate down, because the fundamental element of keeping our economy open is making sure you’re identifying as many infected people as possible and isolating them.”
The researchers said that expanded testing could reduce the rate to 10 percent, which is the maximum rate recommended by the World Health Organization. In Germany, that number is 7 percent, and in South Korea, it is closer to 3 percent.
Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say - ( New Window )
not that i disagree that salons should be open, but how is it possible to stay social distanced from someone who is giving you a haircut? go, go gadget arms?
maybe one of those incubator bins that you reach through with rubber glove/arms? :o)
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They should start to open upstate before the nyc and surrounding counties with a caveat that no travelling from nyc area either. Some non essential businesses like golf courses and hair stylists that can make sure social distancing can be maintained.resturants and bars should be in phase 2 then schools in 3
not that i disagree that salons should be open, but how is it possible to stay social distanced from someone who is giving you a haircut? go, go gadget arms?
Masks for both haircuttrer and customer
This complete failure by a supposed organization of experts led to the quagmire of bureaucracy that held up private, local and state labs getting tests off the ground.
This was a a major factor in why the country was unable to require the data needed to prove there was community spread in the US. If this was proven earlier, action could have been taken earlier and in NYS this could have made a massive difference.
I thought the CDC was the best. They shit the bed in a historical fashion and frankly why are they not taken to task or have heads rolled? They are in charge of setting policy to reopen? That fails to fill me with confidence.
Failure - ( New Window )
maybe one of those incubator bins that you reach through with rubber glove/arms? :o)
Get with it man, get yourself a Flowbee!
'Dog Groomer' #3 on top. blended 1.5 - 2 on the side. Wife does the back neck line.
that's some fuckin awesome leadship
Again please go away if you can’t help yourself.
This complete failure by a supposed organization of experts led to the quagmire of bureaucracy that held up private, local and state labs getting tests off the ground.
This was a a major factor in why the country was unable to require the data needed to prove there was community spread in the US. If this was proven earlier, action could have been taken earlier and in NYS this could have made a massive difference.
I thought the CDC was the best. They shit the bed in a historical fashion and frankly why are they not taken to task or have heads rolled? They are in charge of setting policy to reopen? That fails to fill me with confidence.
Failure - ( New Window )
the head of the CDC appears to be a bit of a hack. the executive branch has set new lows with a lot of these appointments.
Redfield has served as the director of the CDC since March 26, 2018. He was nominated for the post by President DT, after the President's first appointee resigned in scandal. His nomination was considered controversial, and was opposed by the Center for Science in the Public Interest, which cited Redfield's lack of experience administering a public health agency, his history of scientific misconduct, and his religious advocacy in response to a public health crisis. Earlier reporting refers to his advocacy of a religious agenda in response to the AIDS crisis.
Given the lack of testing on patients and healthcare workers requesting testing, Florida Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz asked Redfield about who was responsible to ensure testing could be performed on individuals who needed to be tested. Redfield could not name a specific individual and looked to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of infectious disease at the NIH, who stated, "The system is not geared to what we need right now... that is a failing."
Redfield is a religious bumpkin first and foremost - ( New Window )
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sorry, was that political?
that's some fuckin awesome leadship
Again please go away if you can’t help yourself.
He's right. Go fuck yourself.
Link - ( New Window )
I like cruises, they are a lot of fun and a good value. Also remember Carnival is the frat house of cruises, many others are way more civilized. Plus they have been dealing with this type of stuff forever. They are very health/germ conscious, for example hand sanitizer all over the place and everything is continually cleaned down. I am probably going on a cruise in fall after all this is done.
I was on a royal carribean cruise with my family and my in laws, before you walk into any place to eat they make you wash your hands and use hand sanitizer..
We used a Carnival cruise once as a sampler platter to the Caribbean. We're not resorty/vacation package type people at all, but we got what we wanted out of it: transportation to five islands we were interested in, a nice balcony room with a beautiful view every morning, and a light breakfast. We ate locals food off the ship as much as possible and set up our own excursions (not through Carnival). It was a blast as a couple twenty somethings.
Admittedly the food and sanitation were questionable: the "fine dining" was absolute dog shit and the open buffet had food poisoning written all over it with kids running by and shoving their hands in the fries.
I could maybe be convinced to do it again someday, but it would A) have to be a destination I wouldn't want to just get a hotel room at and B) be a more upscale cruise line.
Apparently they are all being organized by the same group. Reported to be gun rights group
Every day seems to reveal a new bottom on how low our overall level of discourse can go. The worst part is that the people being put in the most danger by any early openings are those on the front lines whether its first responders, police, and healthcare workers, and by extension their families.
Thinning the herd...
Hospitals should amend their procedures for who gets a ventilator when supplies run short and put anyone that attended these rallies at the bottom of the list.
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are in-freaking-sane. Fools.
Thinning the herd...
Hospitals should amend their procedures for who gets a ventilator when supplies run short and put anyone that attended these rallies at the bottom of the list.
They should code that identifier into the contact tracing app.
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are in-freaking-sane. Fools.
Apparently they are all being organized by the same group. Reported to be gun rights group
The organization, and the championing by certain political and media figures, just adds to the insanity.
A contact of mine told me some (he named them) local school boards in Massachusetts are planning to not reopen physical schools until September 2021. They will distance learn for the entire year of 2020-2021 until a vaccine is created, approved, and applied to all students (mandatory). no physical classes, no sports, no concerts (band or chorus), no plays, no other in-person events.
I hope it doesn't come to that, I can't believe it will come to that, but I could believe discussions of that nature are happening.
A contact of mine told me some (he named them) local school boards in Massachusetts are planning to not reopen physical schools until September 2021. They will distance learn for the entire year of 2020-2021 until a vaccine is created, approved, and applied to all students (mandatory). no physical classes, no sports, no concerts (band or chorus), no plays, no other in-person events.
I hope it doesn't come to that, I can't believe it will come to that, but I could believe discussions of that nature are happening.
Hopefully they are just weighing contigency plans because it would be way too early to make that call with all of the data changing every day.
A contact of mine told me some (he named them) local school boards in Massachusetts are planning to not reopen physical schools until September 2021. They will distance learn for the entire year of 2020-2021 until a vaccine is created, approved, and applied to all students (mandatory). no physical classes, no sports, no concerts (band or chorus), no plays, no other in-person events.
I hope it doesn't come to that, I can't believe it will come to that, but I could believe discussions of that nature are happening.
It will be an interesting choice that will need to be considered by businesses as well. From a public health/moral standpoint, is it right to ask people to return to crowded rooms before there is a vaccine?
In many businesses it might be possible to have some continue to work from home while others come in to the office. But with school, it'd be difficult to have some students working from home while the others come in to class. It would have to be all or nothing.
Maybe they'll just start with the semester and re-evaluate after Christmas, but the schools are a petri dish for germs on a good day, and the second we go back in there this will spread like a wildfire undoing everything the past six weeks (and by that time 6 months) had done.
As a teacher, I view the about face that my county has taken several times about not giving new work to incorporating new curriculum as a training ground for the future.
Just reading between the lines.
1. New York is the most densely populated area of the country. This doesn’t fly. Its true the four most dense counties in the country are New York(Manhattan), Bronx, Kings ( Brooklyn ) and Queens. But the fifth most dense county in the country is San Francisco with a population of about 900,000. San Francisco has about 20 deaths total. Density also doesn’t explain why Long Island and Jersey have similarly horrible numbers.
2. New York sees more international arrivals than anyplace else. This also doesn’t fly ( no pun intended ) JFK + EWR sees about 110,000,000 passengers per year. SFO saw about 55,000,000 passengers in 2019. I don’t know what the breakdown between domestic and international is, but its clear that Northern California sees much more air traffic per capita than New York and obviously it sees a higher proportion of Asian travel than New York. I’m not even counting what comes into LAX or SEA that winds up in Northern California.
Nyc waited a long time to shut down schools and other things.
I get testing patients who come into the healthcare system or testing center, but how do you expand into the pubic?
I mean you can't test people in their homes right (or could you?), so how do you get a sense for the level of antibody (if that's even a thing - I've read some disheartening news out of South Korea), to know if you're approaching a safe level of "herd immunity".
Do they anticipate people going to a location to be tested?
Maybe they'll just start with the semester and re-evaluate after Christmas, but the schools are a petri dish for germs on a good day, and the second we go back in there this will spread like a wildfire undoing everything the past six weeks (and by that time 6 months) had done.
As a teacher, I view the about face that my county has taken several times about not giving new work to incorporating new curriculum as a training ground for the future.
Just reading between the lines.
I read that in the US more people over 100 will die from this than people under 25 (not sure if the 25 age is exact or if it is 20 or 23, but it was in that range).
So obviously understanding that schools have teachers and administrators who are not young, is there a point when it makes sense to "accept the risk"?
Don't know the answer, but I think it's a question worth asking and having some meaningful dialog.
I think this point gets lost in most of the re-opening talk. There is a non-trivial chance that we get a huge spike in cases and have to start this shit all over again. How devastating would that be?
Doesn’t mean it’s worthless if you can still hit 40% of the population but they need other options.
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I not only think it's possible, I think it's going to happen. And I think it has to.
Maybe they'll just start with the semester and re-evaluate after Christmas, but the schools are a petri dish for germs on a good day, and the second we go back in there this will spread like a wildfire undoing everything the past six weeks (and by that time 6 months) had done.
As a teacher, I view the about face that my county has taken several times about not giving new work to incorporating new curriculum as a training ground for the future.
Just reading between the lines.
I read that in the US more people over 100 will die from this than people under 25 (not sure if the 25 age is exact or if it is 20 or 23, but it was in that range).
So obviously understanding that schools have teachers and administrators who are not young, is there a point when it makes sense to "accept the risk"?
Don't know the answer, but I think it's a question worth asking and having some meaningful dialog.
Well, I guess my question would be when they open schools back up and the virus starts circulating heavily and people you teach/work with start dying from the virus do you want to continue going to work?
Let's not forget also that it's not just the people in the building affected, it's the communities that the students go home to, many times to people that are at risk.
Is it that simple?
I get testing patients who come into the healthcare system or testing center, but how do you expand into the pubic?
I mean you can't test people in their homes right (or could you?), so how do you get a sense for the level of antibody (if that's even a thing - I've read some disheartening news out of South Korea), to know if you're approaching a safe level of "herd immunity".
Do they anticipate people going to a location to be tested?
Here in Nevada they have had drive through COVID testing since the beginning. Two clinics actually offered drive through antibody test for a day before getting shut down by the governor (I guess they were unapproved, I don't know).
I imagine drive through is the way to go whenever they have the quantities needed.
I saw that in the UK they're experimenting with dogs sniffing out people with COVID-19. Apparently they are able to sniff out people with other diseases. They estimate one dog could sniff 750 people an hour. That would be ideal for businesses with lots of foot traffic.
Sniffer dogs - ( New Window )
So what's the plan? Wait for a vaccine?
Fauci said wrt SARS that the vaccine was in the works and maybe even tested or seeking FDA approval when "it just disappeared". Obviously SARS was nowhere near as contagious as COVID-19 but that can't be the strategy right?
Vaccine (12 - 18 months is what I've read) or hope it disappears?
Is it that simple?
Not a doctor so I obviously can't answer that, but the only thing I can say is that it's going to be hard to justify school systems to continue coming to work when their teachers are dying in the building. You're essentially asking them "how lucky do you feel"?
Secondly, there has been a lot of focus in recent days on how disproportionately this virus is running rampant in poverty stricken communities. The circulation in schools would be like taking an injection of the virus straight into the main vein of the communities. That's why schools were the first thing to be shut down when this began.
Can you name a better (relative term) enviroment for this virus to spread than in schools? It's a gathering of anywhere from 500-4000 people, daily, scattered about a mile apart across the country.
We can't ask teachers and administrators to go in ? Why not ? We're asking doctors and nurses to go in.
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agreed, so herd immunity either isn't a thing then or there can be no opening without a vaccine.
Is it that simple?
Not a doctor so I obviously can't answer that, but the only thing I can say is that it's going to be hard to justify school systems to continue coming to work when their teachers are dying in the building. You're essentially asking them "how lucky do you feel"?
Secondly, there has been a lot of focus in recent days on how disproportionately this virus is running rampant in poverty stricken communities. The circulation in schools would be like taking an injection of the virus straight into the main vein of the communities. That's why schools were the first thing to be shut down when this began.
Can you name a better (relative term) enviroment for this virus to spread than in schools? It's a gathering of anywhere from 500-4000 people, daily, scattered about a mile apart across the country.
Schools definitely the most ripe area, which is why they were the first to close.
Maybe just protect the at risk (elderly, pre-existing conditions, and compromised immune systems) and have the rest of the people resume life.
Don't know if that's fair or not.
But most of what I read the overwhelming majority of fatalities are people with compromised immune systems or other issues (asthma, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.).
Once the curve flattens I guess it depends on antibodies to say if the curve will stay flat/decrease.
But once the curve decreases not sure how to handle opening.
I genuinely feel terrible for people who own/work for small businesses or work in “non essential” businesses that require people on site. I think most of them are just dead frankly. Hard for me to see many small restaurants or bars surviving this, movie theaters, etc.
Things can change obviously. But unless we have a vaccine or at least very well organized, widespread rapid testing and controls (taking temps, contact tracing, masks, washing hands, social distancing, strict rules around what to do when infected that are actually followed by society) I think we are shit out of luck. I suppose it’s possible that the virus is already far more widespread than imagined, a large portion of the country has antibodies that prevent reinfection for at least a year or so, etc. That would be good but it sounds unlikely from what I’ve read and it will take time to even figure out where we stand.
It’s a big mess and I don’t think the United States specifically is well suited to handle it. That’s not entirely political it’s also just cultural. We are individualistic, disorganized, flaunt authority as a rule and we really do not have a social safety net in place which is criminal given that we are the richest country in the history of the world.
I think the only realistic outcome from COVID-19 for America is a lot of people die over the next 2-3 years and our country/economy is severely disrupted. It will be great if that is not the case.
Many basic chem and bio labs are available to be shipped to a students home. Online education (K12 and higher ed) has been in the wild for a while now fortunately so there is some blue print to transition face to face learners. People will find a way.
The study was publicized as drive thru testing, however they also offered coming to you - which is what they did in my case. A med student and a phlebotomist literally came to my house and set up a table outside to do the blood test. Took about 15 minutes total and as expected I was negative. The test was really simple, they finger pricked for some blood which they then put the blood in the square tab in the test which turned color to give results like a home pregnancy test. The results supposedly would have shown how long the antibodies were present as well, to determine when the infection was, including if there was a recent infection reaction. They did say if i'd gotten it in the last 3-5 days that may not have shown up.
(this is not a picture I took of the actual test I took, but this was what it looked like)
Not an expert so no idea how feasible this is but testing kits in some fashion similar to 23+me would seemingly be the ideal option in terms of efficient, scalable, user experience. Maybe a test like that in combination with a scheduled live telemed video conference with a healthcare professional to help read the results to ensure accurate results and reporting? And ideally some kind of link to the tracing apps being developed by apple/google? Give Bezos a cut so amazon prime can get them to people's doorsteps within 2 days. Partnerships with businesses to administer to workers and other strategic locations.
Again, not at all an expert but it's disappointing that the overall levels of testing seem to be plateauing, the positivity rates are still high, and we aren't hearing any big plans to invest more heavily in testing to fix that in a consistent way across the entire country. Letting states handle administration of the tests seems fine but it would seem like our best use of federal muscle (dpa?) would be to develop millions of tests that can provide consistent results. Studies like the one I participated in may be able to estimate exposure across local populations but unless rolled out much more widely I can't imagine it would do much to help track/trace as things open up. In SK when someone tests positive they are able to text everyone who has been near that person to inform them to quarantine. That's the kind of network we should be figuring out here as each location figures out if they are ready to start opening back up.
South Korea was effective in tracing people who may have come into contact with those who tested positive for COVID-19. Nearly all South Korean citizens have smartphones and use credit cards, so when someone tests positive, the government can trace where they have been, at what time, and what mode of transportation they used. With this data, the government can trace the potentially infected population, using CCTV footage to identify potential contacts when needed. Those in close contact with the infected are asked to get tested, while indirect contacts are ordered to self-quarantine for fourteen days. This is an arduous process, but the South Korean government has maintained the ability to trace and contact potentially infected persons.
In the same manner, the South Korean government can track citizens who are under quarantine to ensure they stay at home. This has an effect of breaking the chain of potential infections from the people who came in contact with the infected population. South Korea never had to lock down any cities nor quarantine the general population to contain the virus.
Combating COVID-19: Lessons from South Korea (Brookings) - ( New Window )
1) Israel is slowly re-opening "non-essential" businesses.
2) A vaccine is closer than the 12-18 month forecast.
We can't ask teachers and administrators to go in ? Why not ? We're asking doctors and nurses to go in.
That's not true. I work at a school and chem and bio labs are moving online through a variety of methods.
I don't work for k-12.
1) Israel is slowly re-opening "non-essential" businesses.
2) A vaccine is closer than the 12-18 month forecast.
Info I heard is vaccine around the holidays
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
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Told to me by my wife, confirmed by reports on PBS news.
1) Israel is slowly re-opening "non-essential" businesses.
2) A vaccine is closer than the 12-18 month forecast.
Info I heard is vaccine around the holidays
That seems awfully optimistic. I hope you've heard right...
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
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Told to me by my wife, confirmed by reports on PBS news.
1) Israel is slowly re-opening "non-essential" businesses.
2) A vaccine is closer than the 12-18 month forecast.
Info I heard is vaccine around the holidays
In the US?
Would that be the fastest vaccine ever?
I think I read the FDA is generally more stringent than Israel and Europe with vaccines/and other approvals. Maybe this case would be different.
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Lots of tough questions here. But, how could schools and business and many aspects of life stay closed for such a long period of time.
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
Here in the real world we can't just get back to normal because we want to.
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In comment 14873873 BlueLou'sBack said:
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Told to me by my wife, confirmed by reports on PBS news.
1) Israel is slowly re-opening "non-essential" businesses.
2) A vaccine is closer than the 12-18 month forecast.
Info I heard is vaccine around the holidays
That seems awfully optimistic. I hope you've heard right...
That was my reaction as well when I heard, I hesitated on hitting submit. But I do trust this person. Obviously, would rely on no major setbacks in the process
I also don’t understand how you go back to regular subway commuting volumes without the city being forced to lockdown 2-4 weeks later when the virus is everywhere again.
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In comment 14873982 rocco8112 said:
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Lots of tough questions here. But, how could schools and business and many aspects of life stay closed for such a long period of time.
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
Here in the real world we can't just get back to normal because we want to.
Which is the real world?
If the economic and societal impact results in more deaths than the virus would take which is the real world?
I'm not saying my example is the case, but at some point we will reach an inflection point where the cure is in fact worse than the virus.
I have to believe another strategy would be supported by science and data besides just waiting for a vaccine.
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In comment 14873978 Kevin in Annapolis said:
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In comment 14873873 BlueLou'sBack said:
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Told to me by my wife, confirmed by reports on PBS news.
1) Israel is slowly re-opening "non-essential" businesses.
2) A vaccine is closer than the 12-18 month forecast.
Info I heard is vaccine around the holidays
That seems awfully optimistic. I hope you've heard right...
That was my reaction as well when I heard, I hesitated on hitting submit. But I do trust this person. Obviously, would rely on no major setbacks in the process
For the full public or just for front line medical personnel?
I have no connections, but I've seen articles that J&J, Moderna and some others working on vaccines are targeting the fall for certain select groups while the concurrently complete phase II & III studies.
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In comment 14873982 rocco8112 said:
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Lots of tough questions here. But, how could schools and business and many aspects of life stay closed for such a long period of time.
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
Here in the real world we can't just get back to normal because we want to.
Yeah, some of us are cucks and some of us aren't.
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In comment 14873989 GeneInCal said:
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In comment 14873982 rocco8112 said:
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Lots of tough questions here. But, how could schools and business and many aspects of life stay closed for such a long period of time.
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
Here in the real world we can't just get back to normal because we want to.
Yeah, some of us are cucks and some of us aren't.
So can we ban this guy or nah?
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In comment 14873989 GeneInCal said:
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In comment 14873982 rocco8112 said:
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Lots of tough questions here. But, how could schools and business and many aspects of life stay closed for such a long period of time.
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
Here in the real world we can't just get back to normal because we want to.
Which is the real world?
If the economic and societal impact results in more deaths than the virus would take which is the real world?
I'm not saying my example is the case, but at some point we will reach an inflection point where the cure is in fact worse than the virus.
I have to believe another strategy would be supported by science and data besides just waiting for a vaccine.
Sorry, soundbites like "We need to reopen" and "We need to get back to normal" have no value. It's obviously more complicated than that. And an army of hillbillies swarming state capitals in tac gear because they want a haircut doesn't make it otherwise.
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In comment 14873989 GeneInCal said:
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In comment 14873982 rocco8112 said:
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Lots of tough questions here. But, how could schools and business and many aspects of life stay closed for such a long period of time.
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
Here in the real world we can't just get back to normal because we want to.
Yeah, some of us are cucks and some of us aren't.
You're what is called a "low information voter"
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In comment 14873983 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 14873978 Kevin in Annapolis said:
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In comment 14873873 BlueLou'sBack said:
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Told to me by my wife, confirmed by reports on PBS news.
1) Israel is slowly re-opening "non-essential" businesses.
2) A vaccine is closer than the 12-18 month forecast.
Info I heard is vaccine around the holidays
That seems awfully optimistic. I hope you've heard right...
That was my reaction as well when I heard, I hesitated on hitting submit. But I do trust this person. Obviously, would rely on no major setbacks in the process
For the full public or just for front line medical personnel?
I have no connections, but I've seen articles that J&J, Moderna and some others working on vaccines are targeting the fall for certain select groups while the concurrently complete phase II & III studies.
I don't have that detail, but I would image there would be phased rollouts.
Know the risks and at some point accepting risk may be a better strategy for the country as a whole than waiting for no risks.
The study was publicized as drive thru testing, however they also offered coming to you - which is what they did in my case. A med student and a phlebotomist literally came to my house and set up a table outside to do the blood test. Took about 15 minutes total and as expected I was negative. The test was really simple, they finger pricked for some blood which they then put the blood in the square tab in the test which turned color to give results like a home pregnancy test. The results supposedly would have shown how long the antibodies were present as well, to determine when the infection was, including if there was a recent infection reaction. They did say if i'd gotten it in the last 3-5 days that may not have shown up.
(this is not a picture I took of the actual test I took, but this was what it looked like)
Not an expert so no idea how feasible this is but testing kits in some fashion similar to 23+me would seemingly be the ideal option in terms of efficient, scalable, user experience. Maybe a test like that in combination with a scheduled live telemed video conference with a healthcare professional to help read the results to ensure accurate results and reporting? And ideally some kind of link to the tracing apps being developed by apple/google? Give Bezos a cut so amazon prime can get them to people's doorsteps within 2 days. Partnerships with businesses to administer to workers and other strategic locations.
Again, not at all an expert but it's disappointing that the overall levels of testing seem to be plateauing, the positivity rates are still high, and we aren't hearing any big plans to invest more heavily in testing to fix that in a consistent way across the entire country. Letting states handle administration of the tests seems fine but it would seem like our best use of federal muscle (dpa?) would be to develop millions of tests that can provide consistent results. Studies like the one I participated in may be able to estimate exposure across local populations but unless rolled out much more widely I can't imagine it would do much to help track/trace as things open up. In SK when someone tests positive they are able to text everyone who has been near that person to inform them to quarantine. That's the kind of network we should be figuring out here as each location figures out if they are ready to start opening back up.
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E-GOVERNMENT, IT INFRASTRUCTURE, PUBLIC SECTOR INNOVATION
South Korea was effective in tracing people who may have come into contact with those who tested positive for COVID-19. Nearly all South Korean citizens have smartphones and use credit cards, so when someone tests positive, the government can trace where they have been, at what time, and what mode of transportation they used. With this data, the government can trace the potentially infected population, using CCTV footage to identify potential contacts when needed. Those in close contact with the infected are asked to get tested, while indirect contacts are ordered to self-quarantine for fourteen days. This is an arduous process, but the South Korean government has maintained the ability to trace and contact potentially infected persons.
In the same manner, the South Korean government can track citizens who are under quarantine to ensure they stay at home. This has an effect of breaking the chain of potential infections from the people who came in contact with the infected population. South Korea never had to lock down any cities nor quarantine the general population to contain the virus.
Combating COVID-19: Lessons from South Korea (Brookings) - ( New Window )
Thanks Eric. To me, this is actually good news. In order to get the right data to make decisions as to what the next steps are in opening the country, they need a better representation of the antibodies (more specifically) to see what the numbers are looking like and how much the virus had already spread. There was the Stanford report that showed an increase of 50%-85% of antibodies in a randomized group of people in Northern CA from what was officially reported. If USC is doing their own proper testing, and we know NY is doing it now, that provides the right data for the governments to make decisions as the models adjust.
Now, there are arguments from statisticians on if those numbers are inflated, but it's safe to say at the least, we all knew the numbers of cases that have already happened are significant. Hopefully the data you helped provide will give even better guidance to get us out of this mess.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought - ( New Window )
Know the risks and at some point accepting risk may be a better strategy for the country as a whole than waiting for no risks.
You're not saying that, no. Other morons are.
Know the risks and at some point accepting risk may be a better strategy for the country as a whole than waiting for no risks.
Who gets to decide who accepts the risk?
I mean, it's easy to say to go back to the petri dish that is a school classroom if you're not the one who has to go back.
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to "just open" or anything reckless, but I am suggesting that follow the science and data holistically.
Know the risks and at some point accepting risk may be a better strategy for the country as a whole than waiting for no risks.
Who gets to decide who accepts the risk?
I mean, it's easy to say to go back to the petri dish that is a school classroom if you're not the one who has to go back.
Don't be such a cuck! Good ol' Eugene just wants to kill a few more people to own the libs! "Fire Fauci!"
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to "just open" or anything reckless, but I am suggesting that follow the science and data holistically.
Know the risks and at some point accepting risk may be a better strategy for the country as a whole than waiting for no risks.
Who gets to decide who accepts the risk?
I mean, it's easy to say to go back to the petri dish that is a school classroom if you're not the one who has to go back.
Not sure.
Maybe any faculty menbers who aren't comfortable going back shouldn't have to go. I don't think this period of time should be limitless, maybe that's who stays home until a vaccine is available (if they want).
Would you want your wife or husband to go back? One of your kids? One of your parents?
I mean, if they forced me back and told me to just "take one for the team and test my luck", well, I'd have to consider whether that was worth it to me to take the chance of not seeing my kids grow up.
I know there's been a lot that's unpredictable/unknown about this virus so far, especially as it relates to anti-bodies and reinfection, but I would think as we are starting to talk about opening up next month or the following month we'd be closer to having a real testing roadmap led by the Govt that publicly lays out what the plan is in terms of volume of tests. The Harvard study below says we need to get up to 5m-20m tests per day by June (2-5% of population). That's 5 weeks to increase our testing capacity exponentially bc the number of daily tests has been around 150k for most of this month. That seems like where a whole of government approach is needed.
https://ethics.harvard.edu/Covid-Roadmap - ( New Window )
I work in the NYC public school system, as do many of my family members and friends. My kids go to the public school system, I am aware of the risk.
But, what I keep coming back to is the idea that the gravy train of no fear of easily communicable disease which has blessed this country for generations, is over.
People did go to work and to Yankee Stadium and such prior to vaccines, now I am not saying to just open the societal spigot up full blast, but a data driven, measured response combining all the technologies and sciences of the day should allow for a reopening of America. This will mean a risk of getting sick.
Opening up for “business as usual” isn’t going to repair the economy. This is not a v-shaped recovery. This is a large scale threat that is burning through decades of economic malfeasance that has made our economy not remotely able to weather this.
What happens if people still don’t go to doctors offices, absolutely gutting primary care. What happens when health insurance cost sharing causes large-scale bankruptcies from the virus burning through the population at high costs?
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In comment 14873991 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 14873989 GeneInCal said:
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In comment 14873982 rocco8112 said:
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Lots of tough questions here. But, how could schools and business and many aspects of life stay closed for such a long period of time.
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
Here in the real world we can't just get back to normal because we want to.
Yeah, some of us are cucks and some of us aren't.
So can we ban this guy or nah?
The quote system above makes it seem like I said everything,
for the record my comments ended after
"This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever"
Would you want your wife or husband to go back? One of your kids? One of your parents?
I mean, if they forced me back and told me to just "take one for the team and test my luck", well, I'd have to consider whether that was worth it to me to take the chance of not seeing my kids grow up.
Depends on the risk and the alternatives.
my wife is in healthcare so maybe I'm a bad example.
2. if not part of the answer to #1, how are the countries who are doing best to solve the health crisis positioned to do economically? Germany, SK, etc.
2. if not part of the answer to #1, how are the countries who are doing best to solve the health crisis positioned to do economically? Germany, SK, etc.
1. Developed countries with relatively lower social safety net spending and lower tax burdens (currently), as this can be used to weather storms. The developing world (Latin America, Africa, lots of Asia) is utterly fucked.
2. It depends; there's not going to be a lot of movement internationally while this is burning through populations in developing areas, but if they can focus on their domestic weaknesses (in Germany, it's racism and relatively high barriers to small business), they could succeed.
In the U.S., we need to focus on revamping the social safety net programs, as well as do a better job of coordinating locally and federally.
Yeah, this is defining historical event and who knows how it all plays out. I am not smart enough to know what is best, but the best route is probably not keeping everything closed until 2022 or popping champagne bottles on Memorial Day and opening everything up.
The best course, as usual, is likely a middle road that is based on data and knowledge with the ability to course correct when needed.
There will be hard times though, there already is.
While there's been some sunny PR-type news about progress, and there's some advantages gained from vaccine's developed in the not-to-distant past (as well as it being cell vs egg based), the timeline really hasn't moved much and is still looking late Q1 '21.
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1. which countries are best positioned to weather this?
2. if not part of the answer to #1, how are the countries who are doing best to solve the health crisis positioned to do economically? Germany, SK, etc.
1. Developed countries with relatively lower social safety net spending and lower tax burdens (currently), as this can be used to weather storms. The developing world (Latin America, Africa, lots of Asia) is utterly fucked.
2. It depends; there's not going to be a lot of movement internationally while this is burning through populations in developing areas, but if they can focus on their domestic weaknesses (in Germany, it's racism and relatively high barriers to small business), they could succeed.
In the U.S., we need to focus on revamping the social safety net programs, as well as do a better job of coordinating locally and federally.
Thank you - that makes sense across the board. 1 more for you:
I know you've mentioned onshoring as a potential long term positive, what are your thoughts on the calls to move towards building up more broadly (the link below seems overly simplistic but I've seen similar shared a lot in the last few weeks). If we need to deficit spend in a crisis it seems like we may as well do it in those areas. I've been hearing directly and reading some I respect in the investor class starting to go in that direction (some who were previously more austerity oriented which is an interesting shift in sentiment).
https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/ - ( New Window )
Of course big box retail real estate will suffer, but it was already under assault before this all began.
These masks are vital to help slow the spread and protect the wearers from potentially infecting others.
There should have been a massive push back in January to start importing (or manufacturing at home) all types of facial coverings.
Instead, we have videos telling people how to use tshirts and rubberbands.
A total clusterfuck.
These masks are vital to help slow the spread and protect the wearers from potentially infecting others.
There should have been a massive push back in January to start importing (or manufacturing at home) all types of facial coverings.
Instead, we have videos telling people how to use tshirts and rubberbands.
A total clusterfuck.
Not only that but we shipped off millions back then...
As recently as last week the WHO says there is no reason for healthy people to wear a mask.
the CDC also originally had the same advice, then they did a 180.
1) dissuading the public from hoarding and purchasing higher fidelity masks more useful in the hands of medical workers
2) better understanding of how a sick individual can spread this virus (specifically if lower fidelity coverings actually did anything, an under-researched notion)
3) the conclusion that it doesn't hurt, and helps nominally, so why not
Among the very serious lessons learned and mistakes made but many parties in this journey, the face covering issue rightfully has been on the second page of concerns, no?
Here is an excerpt from an article from April 7th in Business Insider (link below)
On Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that all Americans wear face masks when they are in public.
But new guidance from the World Health Organization released on Monday says healthy people don't need to wear face masks and that doing so won't provide added protection from the coronavirus.
There's some evidence that caretakers of infected people can protect their health by wearing masks, the WHO guidance said, but "there is currently no evidence that wearing a mask (whether medical or other types) by healthy persons in the wider community setting, including universal community masking, can prevent them from infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19."
WHO also said community masking could lead to a "false sense of security" and cause people to ignore other evidence-based measures like handwashing and self-isolation....
link - ( New Window )
2) track and trace capabilities to limit outbreaks
3) hospital/health care bulge capabilities to handle spikes as they may arise
4) widely available and widely used PPE and widely implemented standards/ norms for reasonable social distancing.
Until we have these things, we can’t move forward in a sustainable way in this country. These need to be top priorities of the administration (President). Period.
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why we aren’t further along on some of these things. Fucking go full force on the DPA already. What’s the hold up?!
As recently as last week the WHO says there is no reason for healthy people to wear a mask.
the CDC also originally had the same advice, then they did a 180.
Not really true. I got mocked here for sharing info in early March about many in the states having the knowledge of it being transmittable at greater distance than the CDC was letting on and that masks aren’t a cure all but they help even if just a little bit. I’m in frequent contact with the people that gave me the info and they are dumbfounded with how long this has all been taking and they have no idea why it wasn’t done sooner. These are front line medical people, one of which works directly with a colleague specializing in infectious diseases.
I was told the CDC can’t withhold information. Riiiiight.
Now it’s possible more testing caused this 180 but I call bullshit. They’ve known for a while.
Seems like science is still split on it, which was part of my point about the outrage against not having masks - especially when for the same purposes a bandana or shirt, or cloth would pretty much do the same thing. It's preventing you from spreading the virus, not you from getting it.
Kemp said he will let the statewide shelter-in-place order expire on April 30. The elderly and medically fragile patients have to shelter-in-place until May 13.
Gov. Kemp allows some businesses to reopen, shelter-in-place order to expire - ( New Window )
Kemp said he will let the statewide shelter-in-place order expire on April 30. The elderly and medically fragile patients have to shelter-in-place until May 13. Gov. Kemp allows some businesses to reopen, shelter-in-place order to expire - ( New Window )
Out of all the businesses to reopen, that is probably the worst possible selection
either way I think they probably knew masks provided some level of benefit earlier and mostly wanted to prevent the hoarding of the higher grade PPE as much as possible.
Early guidance suggested not to buy masks so as to not panic buy and prevent N95 masks and PPE from getting in the hands of hospital workers (that we completely shat the bed for months on getting PPE is another issue).
And yes, there have been conflicting sets of guidance and data as to the efficacy of wearing cloth masks or surgical masks as personal protection from catching the virus-- but I doubt you'll find sources that say it provides zero effect.
Even this WHO newsletter from January discusses the use of masks. It questions how useful it is overall-- and like in most cases-- weighs the practicability of it.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/documents/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-2019-ncov.pdf
It's main take away, though, was that masks, alone aren't sufficient. It also describes that people with respiratory illnesses, they should wear a mask. Or caring for a sick family member--wear a mask.
The CDC in February suggested wearing a mask if a person is sick and around other people
(https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0212-cdc-telebriefing-transcript.html)
But where were those people supposed to get masks?
There has been a monumental shortage of masks since February and no nationalized response to remedy that.
That some people cover their eyes and ears along only to complain that no one could have seen or heard it coming is telling.
jmo but it seems to be less of a public outrage and just part of the 'gotcha' sub-genre of clickbait that you can find on just about any topic. There have been inconsistencies in the recommendations but to your earlier point the public recommendations on this issue are down the list of importance.
They already are a breeding ground for germs in the best of times
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In comment 14873991 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 14873989 GeneInCal said:
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In comment 14873982 rocco8112 said:
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Lots of tough questions here. But, how could schools and business and many aspects of life stay closed for such a long period of time.
There is going to have to be another answer. Also, at least in NYC, the public school system is daycare, biggest daycare in the world maybe. How does everyone go back to work if there is no school?
This is before the untold impact on a generation of young people, particularly in the earliest grades, of no school for a year. Two? More?
There is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk for us all. The danger of easily communicable disease is back. Scary, but the mayor is on TV saying budget shortfalls will cause the city to collapse without federal intervention. This is after a month and a half closure.
Also, can the US just borrow and print money forever?
its not sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine is absurd, the economy would be absolutely wrecked by then. We need to get back to normal.
Here in the real world we can't just get back to normal because we want to.
Yeah, some of us are cucks and some of us aren't.
You're what is called a "low information voter"
Got to have that Applebees opened up by God!
These masks are vital to help slow the spread and protect the wearers from potentially infecting others.
There should have been a massive push back in January to start importing (or manufacturing at home) all types of facial coverings.
Instead, we have videos telling people how to use tshirts and rubberbands.
A total clusterfuck.
I guess maybe I’m reading this wrong, but there are cloth masks available everywhere. They aren’t asking people to wear N95s out in public. Simply something to cover your face. They are readily available and not hard to find. Or make, if you don’t want to pay for them.
Right now the financial markets seem to be in order. More for Kicker and the finance gurus but I have to think the commercial real estate is a huge concern that could then create a financial collapse. Then you have all the businesses defaulting on top. This combined with the already incredibly high UR which will be pressure on housing/renting.
Even when things open up. How much is even possible? NY, Florida, Nevada, California to name a few rely heavily on tourism (it's a world event).
Many businesses rely on international revenue. Is this not going to bleed a few months down the road with more heavy layoffs?
I guess with all the uncertainty is seems very concerning with all the printing of money and that we are just pushing a likely event a little down the road.
Lots of unknowns.
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The international and domestic institutions definitely have had evolving at best and confusing at worst views on masks -- is there really outrage over this?
jmo but it seems to be less of a public outrage and just part of the 'gotcha' sub-genre of clickbait that you can find on just about any topic. There have been inconsistencies in the recommendations but to your earlier point the public recommendations on this issue are down the list of importance.
I'll plead a little ignorance with the 'gotcha' perpetrators -- I keep my news consumption to the digital versions of the NYY, WSJ, WaPo, and Christian Science Monitor and have a small network of friends and family who are by and large diverse in background, but in common very practical. By design I keep far away from the whackadoodle.
The pulse I get on the masks issue is 1) the guidance has been vague, but it would be great if there was sufficient high fidelity mask production 2) there are plenty of issues to find the power that be liable on a number of more serious missteps.
A) Nothing, LIBERATE!
B) Widespread, readily available testing (i.e. home tests, drive thrus, testing before entering large businesses or workplaces, etc.)
C) A proven treatment that will shorten recovery and/or greatly improve the chances of survival
D) A vaccine
Lol. Good ole Georgia. Got their pulse on the situation. I guess they can be the guinea pigs for the rest of the country. Let’s see how this turns out...
Opening gyms and restaraunts right now is moronic..
Georgia on my mind - ( New Window )
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doesn't seem a very smart move by Georgia's governor
More understandable if you were to visit the Georgia Health Department site. The daily confirmed cases have been dropping each day for over a week. Many counties in Georgia are reporting total cases in the 10's. You can agree or no, but many places are not experiencing the same situation as NY. Georgia on my mind - ( New Window )
new yorks cases have dropped for a week too
It provides some level of protection if you have a respiratory illness or caring for someone who has corona, but somehow it doesn't do anything if you're just walking around in public?
Yeah, right. Anyone with half a brain can see a flaw in that logic.
They need to come up with a rational line of bullshit to peddle, so people will universally believe it.
Uh, no. I'm not wearing a mask unless I'm going to grocery/liquor store yet I see people in masks passing others on the sidewalks without a second though. Meanwhile I'm crossing the street, no mask on, if I see anybody with 15 feet of me.
"Confirmed cases of COVID-19 by date of earliest known sign of illness. Please note that these data represent our most current understanding of the cases at the time of report. The most recent days of these trend data are impacted by a reporting lag that varies based on how the case is reported to public health and are subject to change."
i.e. It's always going to look like it's trending sharply down because the data is retroactively revised to align with the date of symptom onset - not the date of diagnosis.
Georgia just spiked 1,200+ new cases today.
Uh, no. I'm not wearing a mask unless I'm going to grocery/liquor store yet I see people in masks passing others on the sidewalks without a second though. Meanwhile I'm crossing the street, no mask on, if I see anybody with 15 feet of me.
my neoghborhood is a huge circle with roads intertwined great for walking, the neighbors and everyone ealking have been so considerate...
People moving over for each other, walking on opposite sides of the road, everyonr saying hi to each other, even has me saying hi to people and i hate people, complete introvert, my wife is the opposite she talks to everyone
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I think a lot of them think, 'Hey. I'm wearing a mask. So screw social distancing.'
Uh, no. I'm not wearing a mask unless I'm going to grocery/liquor store yet I see people in masks passing others on the sidewalks without a second though. Meanwhile I'm crossing the street, no mask on, if I see anybody with 15 feet of me.
my neoghborhood is a huge circle with roads intertwined great for walking, the neighbors and everyone ealking have been so considerate...
People moving over for each other, walking on opposite sides of the road, everyonr saying hi to each other, even has me saying hi to people and i hate people, complete introvert, my wife is the opposite she talks to everyone
I've noticed this too. People are much nicer, even me and I'm a grouch
Very true sentiment. There is an element of guess, check, and risk.
The states who lift restrictions are a test. It's a risky proposition, that hopefully other states benefit and learn from.
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In comment 14874095 Eric on Li said:
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1. which countries are best positioned to weather this?
2. if not part of the answer to #1, how are the countries who are doing best to solve the health crisis positioned to do economically? Germany, SK, etc.
1. Developed countries with relatively lower social safety net spending and lower tax burdens (currently), as this can be used to weather storms. The developing world (Latin America, Africa, lots of Asia) is utterly fucked.
2. It depends; there's not going to be a lot of movement internationally while this is burning through populations in developing areas, but if they can focus on their domestic weaknesses (in Germany, it's racism and relatively high barriers to small business), they could succeed.
In the U.S., we need to focus on revamping the social safety net programs, as well as do a better job of coordinating locally and federally.
Thank you - that makes sense across the board. 1 more for you:
I know you've mentioned onshoring as a potential long term positive, what are your thoughts on the calls to move towards building up more broadly (the link below seems overly simplistic but I've seen similar shared a lot in the last few weeks). If we need to deficit spend in a crisis it seems like we may as well do it in those areas. I've been hearing directly and reading some I respect in the investor class starting to go in that direction (some who were previously more austerity oriented which is an interesting shift in sentiment). https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/ - ( New Window )
That's a mix of modern monetary theory (money doesn't matter) with the public sector can do things better.
Problem is, for the public sector to be truly effective, you either need a small enough society, or that society needs to be relatively homogeneous, with relatively similar cultural, religious, and socioeconomic statuses. Otherwise, you get bloat and inefficiency.
I think we probably need to contend with a public sector that is probably a bit more activist, but has anything been done over the past 30 years that has made you feel comfortable with the job that politicians have been doing?
I don't think the private sector (Milton Friedman's masturbation to Ayn Rand) is the be-all end-all. In fact, I think there are significant flaws in the private sector. But the answer isn't the opposite. I think we will actually start to see a lot more local activism and "federalism" at more micro levels.
That would be beneficial public policy.
Two fun questions.
1. At what point during the month is unemployment calculated?
2. Based on 1., what do you think the "true" unemployment figure for March is, given that the reported rate was 4.4%.
The reported labor force is 163,000,000, the reported number of unemployed is 7,100,000.
That's a mix of modern monetary theory (money doesn't matter) with the public sector can do things better.
Problem is, for the public sector to be truly effective, you either need a small enough society, or that society needs to be relatively homogeneous, with relatively similar cultural, religious, and socioeconomic statuses. Otherwise, you get bloat and inefficiency.
I think we probably need to contend with a public sector that is probably a bit more activist, but has anything been done over the past 30 years that has made you feel comfortable with the job that politicians have been doing?
I don't think the private sector (Milton Friedman's masturbation to Ayn Rand) is the be-all end-all. In fact, I think there are significant flaws in the private sector. But the answer isn't the opposite. I think we will actually start to see a lot more local activism and "federalism" at more micro levels.
That would be beneficial public policy.
So the Amish had it right all along. Returning more control to the states does seem like a plausible place for the pendulum to swing in the next decade.
Anything encouraging?
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That's a mix of modern monetary theory (money doesn't matter) with the public sector can do things better.
Problem is, for the public sector to be truly effective, you either need a small enough society, or that society needs to be relatively homogeneous, with relatively similar cultural, religious, and socioeconomic statuses. Otherwise, you get bloat and inefficiency.
I think we probably need to contend with a public sector that is probably a bit more activist, but has anything been done over the past 30 years that has made you feel comfortable with the job that politicians have been doing?
I don't think the private sector (Milton Friedman's masturbation to Ayn Rand) is the be-all end-all. In fact, I think there are significant flaws in the private sector. But the answer isn't the opposite. I think we will actually start to see a lot more local activism and "federalism" at more micro levels.
That would be beneficial public policy.
So the Amish had it right all along. Returning more control to the states does seem like a plausible place for the pendulum to swing in the next decade.
Also, probably even more local than the states. Regional hubs.
Anything encouraging?
The economy will recover.
You can see tremendous local support for small businesses in a lot of locations, where people are choosing to spend some of their hard-earned (perhaps dwindling) cash to support their friends and neighbors.
You can see a lot of small businesses who were hit (florists or caterers), instead of simply dumping inventory, donating it to help brighten people's lives.
You can see that a lot of young people are actually following through on shelter in place orders (it's the fucking boomers man), which means that there is some hope for future governance.
I'm just stunned and saddened beyond words. My friend is one of six kids, and I grew up with all of them. His heartbroken father was my little league baseball and basketball coach. And now they can't even have a normal week of grieving and receiving friends and extended family paying their respects.
Sickening. Fuck this thing.
I'm just stunned and saddened beyond words. My friend is one of six kids, and I grew up with all of them. His heartbroken father was my little league baseball and basketball coach. And now they can't even have a normal week of grieving and receiving friends and extended family paying their respects.
Sickening. Fuck this thing.
Very sorry for the loss of your friend.
This whole things sucks. God Bless you all
doesn't seem like a smart move from Governor
doesn't seem like a smart move from Governor
With his decision, he has made it that local government can't override/restrict his decision. What is shocking is that the Mayor of Atlanta wasn't even consulted by the Governor. He ultimately can decide what he feels is the best path forward, but it would have been prudent to consult the Mayor of the densest population in the state. Perhaps, he consulted other metro areas, but the Mayor of Atlanta said she was surprised by the announcement with never receiving a call from the Governor.
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Georgia dealths from covid19 hit highest one day total today
doesn't seem like a smart move from Governor
With his decision, he has made it that local government can't override/restrict his decision. What is shocking is that the Mayor of Atlanta wasn't even consulted by the Governor. He ultimately can decide what he feels is the best path forward, but it would have been prudent to consult the Mayor of the densest population in the state. Perhaps, he consulted other metro areas, but the Mayor of Atlanta said she was surprised by the announcement with never receiving a call from the Governor.
Hmm. I wonder why he didn't bother to do that...
The survey included 863 adults in Los Angeles County, selected from a market research database to reflect the overall demographics of the county. The results of their blood tests, conducted on April 10 and 11, show that between 2.8% and 5.6% of the participants had antibodies to the virus. Accounting for a margin of error, that suggests 221,000 to 442,000 people in the county may have been infected—28 to 55 times higher than the county’s official count of confirmed cases.
The results, from researchers from Stanford University, the University of Southern California, and LA County’s Department of Public Health, are in line with another survey released on Friday by the same academic researchers, of 3,330 adults in Santa Clara county. That survey found an infection rate of 2.49% to 4.16%, equal to a caseload 50 to 85 times larger than the county’s official count.
LA study (USC) and Santa Clara study (by Stanford) reach similar conclusions and both are being slammed by statisticians.
I don't know what's real or what isn't, but interesting results and the fact the Santa Clara study was done first, the authors got crucified, then the USC (LA) study comes out and produces similar results shows that perhaps they are right.
Link - ( New Window )
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Not sure if it was covered here but anyone see those early results of antibody testing from LA county? They're saying the already infected rate could be at least 55 times what is reported confirmed?
LA study (USC) and Santa Clara study (by Stanford) reach similar conclusions and both are being slammed by statisticians.
I don't know what's real or what isn't, but interesting results and the fact the Santa Clara study was done first, the authors got crucified, then the USC (LA) study comes out and produces similar results shows that perhaps they are right.
I can't wait to see the NY results of the testing starting this week.
I would think that would be good news, no?
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Not sure if it was covered here but anyone see those early results of antibody testing from LA county? They're saying the already infected rate could be at least 55 times what is reported confirmed?
I would think that would be good news, no?
Incredibly good news. To put it into perspective...in downstate NY (5 boros and Long Island), 55 times confirmed would be over 10 million people already infected. Again, that's so over the top it's hard to imagine. But on the low end (28%) that puts it at 5.4M already infected.
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Not sure if it was covered here but anyone see those early results of antibody testing from LA county? They're saying the already infected rate could be at least 55 times what is reported confirmed?
I would think that would be good news, no?
I would think good news in terms of how many people are able to have it with no adverse effects but potentially disastrous in terms of reopening without robust testing in place (and options for therapeutics).
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In comment 14874850 Danny Kanell said:
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Not sure if it was covered here but anyone see those early results of antibody testing from LA county? They're saying the already infected rate could be at least 55 times what is reported confirmed?
LA study (USC) and Santa Clara study (by Stanford) reach similar conclusions and both are being slammed by statisticians.
I don't know what's real or what isn't, but interesting results and the fact the Santa Clara study was done first, the authors got crucified, then the USC (LA) study comes out and produces similar results shows that perhaps they are right.
I can't wait to see the NY results of the testing starting this week.
They are getting slammed with work . 5,000 samples since yesterday and that is is probably closer to 1% of the final number than 10%. The results should be fascinating.
I hope its true, it means it is much less deadly overall. But, something seems off that hundreds of thousands or more are walking around having already had it.
I hope its true, it means it is much less deadly overall. But, something seems off that hundreds of thousands or more are walking around having already had it.
Maybe the rate of extreme cases is just much much lower but the last month was still the peak.
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many out there have had it, why did an explosion on hospitals in hard hit areas only occur over the last month?
I hope its true, it means it is much less deadly overall. But, something seems off that hundreds of thousands or more are walking around having already had it.
Maybe the rate of extreme cases is just much much lower but the last month was still the peak.
Really have to get to the bottom of this.
Possible but it could also be the element of fear. I've posted about my wife and kids having what I think was COVID in February. My wife was sicker than I've ever seen her. She had chest tightness so bad that breathing was labored for a few days. She got an inhaler from the doctor. We were just talking. If that happened in late March knowing about COVID, we 100% would have gone to the hospital in a panic. Her fever was 103.
Thanks, SFGFNC.
(Now I'm craving Bugles.)
The staff almost certainly brings it in but I agree that we are hopeless to stop the spread and just need to slow the rate of infection so hospitalizations don't suddenly spike.
I think that's plausible. There is still some investigation that COVID might have started spreading as far back as September and may not have even originated in Wuhan.
As far as the infection rates 20-50x higher sounds dramatic but that's in comparison to known cases which have consistently been projected to be 10-20x higher. The overall number of known cases is .2% of US population and in CA it is less than half that - so the projection of these studies (2-4%) isn't that far off what was previously thought - just higher than expected given CA's good outcomes so far.
NYT: "I don't think the New York that we left will be back for some years" - ( New Window )
Yes, things will be different. But throughout history resilience and resourcefulness have defined Americans. I read a graphic listing the companies that were founded or became prominent during recessions, or other bleak periods and it's impressive.
Americans will find a way to come out of this, and come out stronger and I know things are tough right now, especially for those who are separated from loved ones, and it's not a sacrifice anyone would choose to make and no words can comfort those people. but for others, take heart in watching how we come out of it.
im from the area originally, haven't lived there in a long time but before covid new york wasn't the same new york i remembered from even 2007. had long lost a lot of its charm for me. the corporate-disneyland-sanitization that occurred under guilliani's mayorship seemed to spiral into something even more grotesque under bloomberg.
Japanhead, I can agree with you to an extent with regards to Manhattan, but the outer boroughs definitely still had that feel to it IMO.
My 88 year old grandmother is an assisted living home in Monmouth County. They're self quarantining, but I'm terrified that it's going to break out there.
Japanhead, I can agree with you to an extent with regards to Manhattan, but the outer boroughs definitely still had that feel to it IMO.
Honestly I don't know any other way to look at it but to try and find the positive vs doom and gloom.
But I also realize I'm fortunate in that my loved ones and I are safe (so far), so I don't begrudge others who are confused, scared, angry or other emotions because of these circumstances. My heart goes out to them and I pray they get some peace.
The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.
Link - ( New Window )
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A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.
The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.
Link - ( New Window )
Not surprised. Hopefully remdesivir will fare better.
The biggest worry is the impacts of touting drugs that are used for other illnesses, and where these mentions can impact the availability of the drugs for treatments where it is a PROVEN remedy.
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A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.
The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.
Link - ( New Window )
bummer
I read something recently about Ivermectin, my dog takes it to prevent heartworm and it is an anti parasite drug used a lot in Africa I think.
I read it might be effective against this thing.
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A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.
The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.
Link - ( New Window )
I hope Foxnews regrets pushing this BS.
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A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.
The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.
Link - ( New Window )
I hope Foxnews regrets pushing this BS.
They will when the lawsuits start.
My older kids were holding out hope they'd get to go back. As high school seniors they are pretty sad right now.
He did the right thing though and I have to say Charlie Baker has handled this challenge very well so far. Not that MA as state has done any better than other states containing or treating or managing the virus, but his communication, empathy, demeanor, and transparency have been abundantly clear since day 1.
I think he's the highest rated governor in the country (in terms of favorability - or tied or pretty high up there) and I see why.
Hopeful these kids get to go to college on time.
Also, Baker announced an extension of non-essential daycare facilities being closed through June 29th. That was not met so well but I guess it makes sense.
The school closure gives the planning committees all summer to come up with a safe way to open schools in August (or January). Hopefully August.
My older kids were holding out hope they'd get to go back. As high school seniors they are pretty sad right now.
He did the right thing though and I have to say Charlie Baker has handled this challenge very well so far. Not that MA as state has done any better than other states containing or treating or managing the virus, but his communication, empathy, demeanor, and transparency have been abundantly clear since day 1.
I think he's the highest rated governor in the country (in terms of favorability - or tied or pretty high up there) and I see why.
Hopeful these kids get to go to college on time.
Also, Baker announced an extension of non-essential daycare facilities being closed through June 29th. That was not met so well but I guess it makes sense.
The school closure gives the planning committees all summer to come up with a safe way to open schools in August (or January). Hopefully August.
I hope they don't take it too hard and are able to get together with their fellow seniors before everyone goes off to college, but I totally empathize with their anger and dissapointment.
My older kids were holding out hope they'd get to go back. As high school seniors they are pretty sad right now.
He did the right thing though and I have to say Charlie Baker has handled this challenge very well so far. Not that MA as state has done any better than other states containing or treating or managing the virus, but his communication, empathy, demeanor, and transparency have been abundantly clear since day 1.
I think he's the highest rated governor in the country (in terms of favorability - or tied or pretty high up there) and I see why.
Hopeful these kids get to go to college on time.
Also, Baker announced an extension of non-essential daycare facilities being closed through June 29th. That was not met so well but I guess it makes sense.
The school closure gives the planning committees all summer to come up with a safe way to open schools in August (or January). Hopefully August.
I think this is hitting young people the hardest. My daughter got recalled from Macedonia by the Peace Corps 6 months into a 2-year commitment and right after she received a promotion. She was devestated
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announces the inevitable, Mass schools canceled the remainder of the school year.
My older kids were holding out hope they'd get to go back. As high school seniors they are pretty sad right now.
He did the right thing though and I have to say Charlie Baker has handled this challenge very well so far. Not that MA as state has done any better than other states containing or treating or managing the virus, but his communication, empathy, demeanor, and transparency have been abundantly clear since day 1.
I think he's the highest rated governor in the country (in terms of favorability - or tied or pretty high up there) and I see why.
Hopeful these kids get to go to college on time.
Also, Baker announced an extension of non-essential daycare facilities being closed through June 29th. That was not met so well but I guess it makes sense.
The school closure gives the planning committees all summer to come up with a safe way to open schools in August (or January). Hopefully August.
pjacs, really feel terrible for your kids. I was just thinking the other day about how distraught/mad I'd be if I had to forgo spring of my senior year of high school due to all this. It's not even just prom or graduation, but just that entire time -- it's really one of the most memorable time periods in everyones lives.
I hope they don't take it too hard and are able to get together with their fellow seniors before everyone goes off to college, but I totally empathize with their anger and dissapointment.
I appreciate that and I didn't get it at first.
I didn't know how they'd feel.
They're upset and confused, and hopeful (they still want a prom and graduation and are holding out hope those things happen at some point even if over the summer - and they want graduation parties and college orientation and summer jobs, etc.).
But at the end of the day (to channel Antrel Rolle) they understand the decision and even though they're sad, again they understand why and accept it.
I'm proud of how they have handled it so far.
This pandemic seems like it may define a good part of a generation.
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A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.
The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.
Link - ( New Window )
The study doesn't mention Zinc. The whole point of the hydroxychloroquine is that it helps cells take in Zinc. Zinc then blocks the virus. Taking it on its own will likely cause more harm, then good.
If Doctors are doing so, we're fooked.
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Quote:
A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.
The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.
Link - ( New Window )
Not surprised. Hopefully remdesivir will fare better.
remdesivir has fared better hasn't it? Isn't the issue $$$$ and scaling?
St. Augustine Distillery - ( New Window )
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TIA
St. Augustine Distillery - ( New Window )
Thanks! A bit pricey though!
Any other suggestions?
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In comment 14875573 Grey Pilgrim said:
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TIA
St. Augustine Distillery - ( New Window )
Thanks! A bit pricey though!
Any other suggestions?
They offer smaller lot sizes. I just posted the larger one since you could split the case lot among friends. The price is the same $3/bottle. They have had it for a few weeks but only recently received approval to ship.
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In comment 14875886 Diver_Down said:
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In comment 14875573 Grey Pilgrim said:
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TIA
St. Augustine Distillery - ( New Window )
Thanks! A bit pricey though!
Any other suggestions?
They offer smaller lot sizes. I just posted the larger one since you could split the case lot among friends. The price is the same $3/bottle. They have had it for a few weeks but only recently received approval to ship.
Thanks DD!
I work in a hospital so I knew there was a decent chance Id catch it at some point. In a way I think Im kind of relieved? It was just getting stressful going in there every day and trying to be positive/upbeat to boost morale bc its pretty low tbh. I've actually been avoiding *all* news info, this thread, etc because it was just too much. Its been a strange 6-8 weeks.
Did a telehealth appointment with my doctor this morning. Now waiting to get a call to schedule my test, most likely tomorrow. Currently quarantining myself in my bedroom. Looking forward to the draft now more than ever. Take care of yourself folks.
I work in a hospital so I knew there was a decent chance Id catch it at some point. In a way I think Im kind of relieved? It was just getting stressful going in there every day and trying to be positive/upbeat to boost morale bc its pretty low tbh. I've actually been avoiding *all* news info, this thread, etc because it was just too much. Its been a strange 6-8 weeks.
Did a telehealth appointment with my doctor this morning. Now waiting to get a call to schedule my test, most likely tomorrow. Currently quarantining myself in my bedroom. Looking forward to the draft now more than ever. Take care of yourself folks.
That sucks, hope you get better quickly with no further issues Jrud. Take care of yourself
I work in a hospital so I knew there was a decent chance Id catch it at some point. In a way I think Im kind of relieved? It was just getting stressful going in there every day and trying to be positive/upbeat to boost morale bc its pretty low tbh. I've actually been avoiding *all* news info, this thread, etc because it was just too much. Its been a strange 6-8 weeks.
Did a telehealth appointment with my doctor this morning. Now waiting to get a call to schedule my test, most likely tomorrow. Currently quarantining myself in my bedroom. Looking forward to the draft now more than ever. Take care of yourself folks.
Speedy recovery man.
I work in a hospital so I knew there was a decent chance Id catch it at some point. In a way I think Im kind of relieved? It was just getting stressful going in there every day and trying to be positive/upbeat to boost morale bc its pretty low tbh. I've actually been avoiding *all* news info, this thread, etc because it was just too much. Its been a strange 6-8 weeks.
Did a telehealth appointment with my doctor this morning. Now waiting to get a call to schedule my test, most likely tomorrow. Currently quarantining myself in my bedroom. Looking forward to the draft now more than ever. Take care of yourself folks.
Sorry dude. All the best. Get well soon! Keep us posted if you can.
How is that remotely possible? How was being publicly traded not an automatic disqualification.
However, maybe this should be a lesson when all you hear is that Party X is holding up Bill Y because they have Demand Z. Part of the reason for some of the holdup was because language on a bill for $2.2 trillion was far too broad...
The known legislative lag for fiscal policy exists because shit like this can and does happen.
I assume the gov'ts POV is saving as many jobs as they can, but the PPP was pitched intended for small biz most of which are sole prop. There were other programs (retention credits, etc) that would be more helpful for larger organizations relative to small biz and yet it seems the opposite got funded bc they were the banks bigger customers.
I'm not in the category of someone who will go under bc of this but if I was I'd be livid and taking it out on whoever I could find that answers the phone at my bank.
However, maybe this should be a lesson when all you hear is that Party X is holding up Bill Y because they have Demand Z. Part of the reason for some of the holdup was because language on a bill for $2.2 trillion was far too broad...
The known legislative lag for fiscal policy exists because shit like this can and does happen.
bingo. I know there's a delicate balance between wanting to act fast and I appreciate the overly generous sentiment, but this was a fuck up to not simply have a few other stipulations of guidance for banks.
How is that remotely possible? How was being publicly traded not an automatic disqualification.
Because they eliminated the impartial IG who was to oversee it and instead claimed our Treasury Sec is doing oversight
I mean, the airlines got like 25 billion dollars. It just blows me away that Americans continue to stand for this transfer of taxpayer money to private companies. Why bailout the airlines? Why bailout any private company? It just boggles the mind. Makes no sense at all to me. And I can’t qualify for any of the cash paid out to private citizens because I make too much income.
How is that remotely possible? How was being publicly traded not an automatic disqualification.
Many of the publicly traded companies that received loans have under 500 employees, why shouldn't they qualify?
Agree the big chains exploiting loopholes should not qualify but I'm not sure only private companies should. Some of those big chains (Shake Shack for example) are giving the money back after the publicity.
the goal is to keep people employed, so how do 500 employees at a public company differ from 500 employees at a private company?
Seriously I don't know, might be something I'm missing.
Add to that they also have 100M in cash reserves.
Add to that they also have 100M in cash reserves.
yep, Ruth's Chris too I think. Not sure if they laid anyone off or not or what their cash reserves are, but clearly they were not the intended recipient.
At the WH press conference today they said they will ask all unintended recipients to return the money - I assume voluntarily, but the public pressure once the names get out can be a strong motivator.
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Are able to apply for this money
I mean, the airlines got like 25 billion dollars. It just blows me away that Americans continue to stand for this transfer of taxpayer money to private companies. Why bailout the airlines? Why bailout any private company? It just boggles the mind. Makes no sense at all to me. And I can’t qualify for any of the cash paid out to private citizens because I make too much income.
airline bailouts suck, but what choice do you have? regulate them? government take over?
I don't know the answer, people smarter than me probably do on how in a time like now when it's not just people don't want to fly, they can't - how do you keep them afloat?
I hate the stock buybacks, and executive bonuses - those should all be stipulated with these funds as well as know layoffs and a severe audit process in place to ensure compliance, but we need airlines, right?
What do you do?
What businesses do the American people get taxed to support? And which businesses have to fend for themselves? My company either laid off, furloughed or cut the salary of every single employee. It was a blood bath. But somehow Delta gets billions of dollars? Why couldn’t congress just give all that money to the taxpayers in the form of a refund?
It’s ludicrous. And by the way, in the post I was warned was “too political”, I called this before it even happened. It’s not like I’m some kind of third eye fortune teller, anyone paying attention could have predicated this from a mile away.
Exactly - and to go further, beyond the normal options any big biz has, like lines of cedit with their bank, there were 2 other programs in cares act that were specifically designed to help bigger biz get relief in the short term. Tax deferrals and employee retention credits.
The other program's terms weren't as appealing as the PPP, because it was designed to be more lenient to quickly helpful to small businesses stay afloat.
The max on the loans was $10m, how many publicly traded companies are there where that sum is more than a drop in the bucket? The vast majority of small businesses aren't even worth a fraction of that amount if you bought the entire business.
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capital and other liquid funds?
Exactly - and to go further, beyond the normal options any big biz has, like lines of cedit with their bank, there were 2 other programs in cares act that were specifically designed to help bigger biz get relief in the short term. Tax deferrals and employee retention credits.
The other program's terms weren't as appealing as the PPP, because it was designed to be more lenient to quickly helpful to small businesses stay afloat.
The max on the loans was $10m, how many publicly traded companies are there where that sum is more than a drop in the bucket? The vast majority of small businesses aren't even worth a fraction of that amount if you bought the entire business.
Yeah; and there were some reports that if you applied for the other SBA loans, it locked you out of PPP loans (anecdotal evidence on my part), but which started capping businesses at around $10k (rather than the PPP).
But hey, we're refunding the program (somehow with more "oversight"), but still have no problem labeling far too many people on our social welfare programs "queens".
Guess Delta will be the Queen of the sky soon...
Harvard didn't get PPP money, they got cares act money for their "struggling students".
Still with a $41B endowment, as you mention, the optics are bad, but it's not like what is being reported from what Harvard has to say about it.
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They have 41 Billion dollar endowment. WTF do they need 9M for?
Harvard didn't get PPP money, they got cares act money for their "struggling students".
Still with a $41B endowment, as you mention, the optics are bad, but it's not like what is being reported from what Harvard has to say about it.
Okay thanks for clearing that up pj.
So, no, what is being reported about Harvard is very accurate. They are the Shake Shack of academia right now.
What surprises me is the continued pliancy of the American people. Oh wait a secin’, never mind the corporate bailouts, look over there, it’s a trans person using a bathroom!
So, no, what is being reported about Harvard is very accurate. They are the Shake Shack of academia right now.
Not sure they're quite Shake Shack, but they are being pressured to give the money back and hopefully they do.
But IMO they're not quite like Shake Shack for the following reasons:
1. I don't think they applied or requested the funds, from what I read the DOE allocated the funds (out of a $14B earmark for higher education in the Cares Act) based on formulas around the percentage of students receiving assistance and other factors like enrollment.
2. Once they received the allocation Harvard stated they would use 100% of the funds toward the student assistance portion (which was only 50%) and eschew the institutional side of it
3. Schools like Yale (7.M), Stanford (7.4M) and others with more than 25B endowments also were allocated funding.
I think they should all give it back (like Shake Shack did), but the program in it's goal of speed to those who need the funds was not well crafted IMO. And again, they should give it back.
Link - ( New Window )
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has to explain to me how 75 publicly traded companies got millions of dollars in grants under the small business program.
How is that remotely possible? How was being publicly traded not an automatic disqualification.
Many of the publicly traded companies that received loans have under 500 employees, why shouldn't they qualify?
Agree the big chains exploiting loopholes should not qualify but I'm not sure only private companies should. Some of those big chains (Shake Shack for example) are giving the money back after the publicity.
the goal is to keep people employed, so how do 500 employees at a public company differ from 500 employees at a private company?
Seriously I don't know, might be something I'm missing.
Publicly traded companies have many ways to get funding as a result of being publicly traded companies. Small businesses that are private do not have any of those options. Under no circumstance should a single publicly traded company have been given funds from the PPP while small business owners are drowning and desperate for any money. It's sickening.
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The CARES Act for higher education is meant to help both students and universities, especially those with a very high fraction of underserved populations AND low endowments, since 50% of the monies could be used by the school for financial assistance.
So, no, what is being reported about Harvard is very accurate. They are the Shake Shack of academia right now.
Not sure they're quite Shake Shack, but they are being pressured to give the money back and hopefully they do.
But IMO they're not quite like Shake Shack for the following reasons:
1. I don't think they applied or requested the funds, from what I read the DOE allocated the funds (out of a $14B earmark for higher education in the Cares Act) based on formulas around the percentage of students receiving assistance and other factors like enrollment.
2. Once they received the allocation Harvard stated they would use 100% of the funds toward the student assistance portion (which was only 50%) and eschew the institutional side of it
3. Schools like Yale (7.M), Stanford (7.4M) and others with more than 25B endowments also were allocated funding.
I think they should all give it back (like Shake Shack did), but the program in it's goal of speed to those who need the funds was not well crafted IMO. And again, they should give it back.
There was a formula, but to receive the money immediately, universities had to provide documentation and other signed forms.
So it's not like they just got the money credited in their account. They knew how much they would be getting, and then had to take other steps to receive the money.
But given the amount of money, and how many college students there are, it's a simple calculation to figure out that there is only $350 for each college student in America, if all colleges were eligible and asked for the money.
They knew what they were doing. Again, they are the Shake Shack of academia right now...
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In comment 14875973 MookGiants said:
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has to explain to me how 75 publicly traded companies got millions of dollars in grants under the small business program.
How is that remotely possible? How was being publicly traded not an automatic disqualification.
Many of the publicly traded companies that received loans have under 500 employees, why shouldn't they qualify?
Agree the big chains exploiting loopholes should not qualify but I'm not sure only private companies should. Some of those big chains (Shake Shack for example) are giving the money back after the publicity.
the goal is to keep people employed, so how do 500 employees at a public company differ from 500 employees at a private company?
Seriously I don't know, might be something I'm missing.
Publicly traded companies have many ways to get funding as a result of being publicly traded companies. Small businesses that are private do not have any of those options. Under no circumstance should a single publicly traded company have been given funds from the PPP while small business owners are drowning and desperate for any money. It's sickening.
I agree mostly, and I'm out of my depth here since I've never owned a business nor do I have much experience with small private businesses, but don't those methods of getting funding for small public companies potentially have long-term impacts that can impact their viability?
I mean many of those public companies with under 500 employees aren't generating any revenue either, like the small businesses and to tell them they need to sell stock (good luck in this market at depressed prices) or access capital through loans or other equity related vehicle has an impact.
And the goal of the PPP is to keep people employed. I agree keeping small businesses in business and paying people is the goal, and the program should have tighter restrictions.
However, I don't know that public companies as a whole should be exempt from the program. I don't feel strongly and could possibly be convinced otherwise, but I don't see how it's any better for a publicly traded company employing 500 people to be forced to lay off 200 people (or close down altogether) is any better off for the economy and the local community than 5 or 10 small businesses closing that employ the same 200 people (or so).
In a similar way it shouldn't really matter which worker's paychecks get protected by govt loan. The issue is the public companies who have alternatives taking $10m that could have been the difference to 5? 10? 20? 30? different true small businesses that don't have somewhere else to go and could go out. If I was 1 of those guys I'd be going ape shit on my bank. Those are the people choosing between keeping their business afloat or making mortgage payments, and the entire public premise of the program was getting $ to them as quickly as possible.
I don't entirely blame the companies that applied either, they didn't write the law. As Kicker said the failure is not giving guidance to the banks on who the $ should go to, because leaving them to their devices just got their biggest clients paid first.
But, there are 2 major differences.
1. The bigger the company, the more access to capital. Banks are more willing to lend to bigger companies. And with becoming a "public" company, there is sometimes more equity in the name brand than not, meaning that you can raise more money (if need be).
2. Smaller businesses, with employment losses, are much more likely to generate more "economic dollars lost" with employment losses than bigger companies. The reason why is twofold. The probability of the "boss" losing his/her job is higher the smaller the company, and given homeownership rates between business owners and employees (higher for business owners), generates some additional localized economic losses. The second reason is that bigger companies are much more likely to replace workers with capital; they have that ability to absorb some of the lost productivity in the future. Small businesses don't have as much of an ability.
*Note, I am using a simple rule of thumb that public companies tend to be, on average, larger than private companies.
But, there are 2 major differences.
1. The bigger the company, the more access to capital. Banks are more willing to lend to bigger companies. And with becoming a "public" company, there is sometimes more equity in the name brand than not, meaning that you can raise more money (if need be).
2. Smaller businesses, with employment losses, are much more likely to generate more "economic dollars lost" with employment losses than bigger companies. The reason why is twofold. The probability of the "boss" losing his/her job is higher the smaller the company, and given homeownership rates between business owners and employees (higher for business owners), generates some additional localized economic losses. The second reason is that bigger companies are much more likely to replace workers with capital; they have that ability to absorb some of the lost productivity in the future. Small businesses don't have as much of an ability.
*Note, I am using a simple rule of thumb that public companies tend to be, on average, larger than private companies.
Thanks, makes sense, just a final point, some of the public companies receiving funds have under 200 employees. definitely bigger than a mom and pop 20 person business but still a small company by most definitions.
In a similar way it shouldn't really matter which worker's paychecks get protected by govt loan. The issue is the public companies who have alternatives taking $10m that could have been the difference to 5? 10? 20? 30? different true small businesses that don't have somewhere else to go and could go out. If I was 1 of those guys I'd be going ape shit on my bank. Those are the people choosing between keeping their business afloat or making mortgage payments, and the entire public premise of the program was getting $ to them as quickly as possible.
I don't entirely blame the companies that applied either, they didn't write the law. As Kicker said the failure is not giving guidance to the banks on who the $ should go to, because leaving them to their devices just got their biggest clients paid first.
Th academic stuff grinds my gears because I see it firsthand. At my large school in the California system, a majority of my students are first gen. A sizable minority have to work. Many come from poor backgrounds. And we don’t have a sizable endowment we can teach from.
We’ve done things to help (donated 1,500 Chromebooks, bought students WiFi), but are now facing decisions as to how much more we can do without not being able to hire adjuncts, let alone the 50 new hires we just finished.
It also grinds my gears that, before this, not all the money would have gone to students.
Between the problems with PPP and all the UI sign up issues they probably should have just given everyone the $7k. Would have been quicker and probably gone right back into the economy too. Just would have had to have something set up for the businesses to stay afloat with temporary govt backed loans or something.
Article states the origin of the cases was in the community.
Link - ( New Window )
Below is a graphic with the largest publicly traded companies who received funds. One of them has over 10,000 employees.
Seems like due to a glitch around $300M (more than was allocated) of the $349B went to public companies.
That $57M unintentionally allocated to public companies absolutely could help many small business stay afloat (average loan was $206,000 - so you can see a ton of small businesses could be supported by those funds), so there are casualties of this, but given it's such a small percentage of the funds, I don't think it's as huge a deal as some make it seem. Not minimizing it, to those businesses who couldn't get funds and go under it's a big deal, but at the macro level, $57M miss-allocated is a minor f-up comparatively speaking.
link - ( New Window )
Care to rethink that math?
$57M miss-allocated out of a $349B program <> 16% the way I was taught to do math. It's less than 1%.
Not sure how it's verified, but as I understand the program the intent is that companies who borrowed the funds get forgiveness the more people they keep employed (IOW if they use it for payroll more of the loan is forgiven) and for other "allowable" expenses. But I've only read blurbs, not the details, but I believe that's the intent.
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and is it verified throughout the process?
Not sure how it's verified, but as I understand the program the intent is that companies who borrowed the funds get forgiveness the more people they keep employed (IOW if they use it for payroll more of the loan is forgiven) and for other "allowable" expenses. But I've only read blurbs, not the details, but I believe that's the intent.
I helped my company apply for the loan. That is essentially the jist of it.In calculating the loan, the individual payroll per person was capped at $100K. If you keep your employment levels at the same rate as used for application (there were different ways of calculating the payroll apportionment), then you can essentially get 100% of the debt forgiven. You will apply for forgiveness with the bank and provide a detailed paper trail in order for them to approve for forgiveness.
A silly correlation with Covid19 .
We’ve lost close to 80,000 with just the Flu in 2018. And we had a vaccine and antivirals.
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and is it verified throughout the process?
Not sure how it's verified, but as I understand the program the intent is that companies who borrowed the funds get forgiveness the more people they keep employed (IOW if they use it for payroll more of the loan is forgiven) and for other "allowable" expenses. But I've only read blurbs, not the details, but I believe that's the intent.
Basically what it is, i know of a few businesses around me that hired people back so they didnt have to repay the loan..
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we will likely reach as many US deaths from Corona, in about 10 weeks, as we did from Vietnam (58,220), in about 10 years.
A silly correlation with Covid19 .
We’ve lost close to 80,000 with just the Flu in 2018. And we had a vaccine and antivirals.
So are you stating that as the death toll approaches 50K in 2 months time that you don't think it will continue? Do you not think that another 30K will be added to the tally in the next 8 months? Just because the curve has been flattened and some areas are looking to reopen the economy doesn't make the virus and it's impact go away. There is no getting off the roller-coaster.
small-business-rescue-earned-banks-10-billion-in-fees - ( New Window )
There are a few other technicalities in there too, only employees who make under $100k qualify, some other expenses beyond payroll may be forgivable in part, but that's the main gist. The intended purpose was to leverage small businesses by offering free money if used as a pass through to keeping their employees who make < $100k in their jobs. But obviously that also helps them sustain losses in operations too.
I'd also take the over on $300m going to companies bigger than originally intended (whether public or not). Not saying it's all wrongful, just that the guidance was lacking for the banks and from everything I know they went to their biggest customers first so a lot of the intended recipients got shut out of the process (or stalled within it). Sole proprietors are the vast majority of all small businesses, so while it's not quite a perfect metric I'd love to know what % of money went to them.
If I could agree 1000% I would. Sadly I will have to settle for 100%. Cruises fucking suck. My wife calls them poopy cruises...juvenile? maybe, but spot on. Everytime I think of going on a cruise or someone mentions a cruise I think of poop. I can't help it.
In 2013, a fire in the engine room of the Carnival Triumph, now better known as the “poop cruise,” left hundreds of guests stranded in the Gulf of Mexico without air conditioning or working toilets for several days.
There is so much conflicting information on every aspect of this — for example, the Stanford and USC antibody studies showEd 25-85X actual v confirmed cases, and thus a low death rate, which was widely derided by other groups of scientists. And all of our decision-making seems to have been set based on early models based on Wuhan and Italy data. I would love to see some congressional hearings where all the science is subject to critical debate and questioning. It’s vitally important, in my opinion, that we confirm that we are on the smartest path here — because as Redfield said yesterday, this thing is likely coming back again and again.
To be clear, I’m not advocating for the Sweden approach, but I do know that there is at least a decent modicum of intellectual dissent on the issue that deserves to be heard — and a lot of new data.
Also please note that most (a high %) of these horror shows happen on Carnival, which is the floating frat house of the Cruise industry. If you are a 22 year old that wants to go somewhere cheap fine, but you get what you pay for. I prefer Crystal, Seabourn, Regents, etc. These are top shelf in the cleanliness and service.
I don't know - I think it stands to reason it has been around longer in certain places like Washington, and perhaps even down the west coast, but with the way it spread so quickly in NYC to significant effect it seems unlikely that it was there too much before Feb.
Based on the bits and pieces we know it would not shock me if it was in certain pockets of the west coast first in January, like Washington, but obviously just didn't spread as easily compared to tri-state.
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Cruises fucking suck. My wife calls them poopy cruises...juvenile? maybe, but spot on. Everytime I think of going on a cruise or someone mentions a cruise I think of poop. I can't help it.
In 2013, a fire in the engine room of the Carnival Triumph, now better known as the “poop cruise,” left hundreds of guests stranded in the Gulf of Mexico without air conditioning or working toilets for several days.
This is one of the circles of Hell...
No idea really what that means, but is it possible the way it began here in late January is different than when it made its way to NYC?
2. even if the data were good there is zero chance congress is the correct deliberative body to host an intelligent discussion.
3. this one is jmo, but seeing how things unfolded in NY, the horse has left the barn on thinking the Sweden approach is the right one here. More than .1% of the total population of NY has already died. Think about that. If 10% of NY'ers contracted the virus, which is more than most estimates, it's a 1% mortality rate. And that is without the hospitals running out of ventilators and already low on PPE. As you mentioned herd immunity is very much still unknown here but even the minimum threshold the experts talk about is 50% of population. Let's make far more optimistic assumptions than what we have seen play out in NY - .5% mortality, 170m people - that's still almost 1m dead. I'd also caution the thinking that NY is a complete unicorn. New Orleans is the 50th largest city in the US. Michigan is the 10th most populous state - both have been hit hard. This thing would pop up in hot spots all over and not all would be predictable. Even with all we've done so far they still may. More than 50k will be dead by the end of this week. If things had continued undeterred that number would have doubled, tripled, or more in May.
It already is you believe the Santa Clara and LA studies are accurate.
2. even if the data were good there is zero chance congress is the correct deliberative body to host an intelligent discussion.
3. this one is jmo, but seeing how things unfolded in NY, the horse has left the barn on thinking the Sweden approach is the right one here. More than .1% of the total population of NY has already died. Think about that. If 10% of NY'ers contracted the virus, which is more than most estimates, it's a 1% mortality rate. And that is without the hospitals running out of ventilators and already low on PPE. As you mentioned herd immunity is very much still unknown here but even the minimum threshold the experts talk about is 50% of population. Let's make far more optimistic assumptions than what we have seen play out in NY - .5% mortality, 170m people - that's still almost 1m dead. I'd also caution the thinking that NY is a complete unicorn. New Orleans is the 50th largest city in the US. Michigan is the 10th most populous state - both have been hit hard. This thing would pop up in hot spots all over and not all would be predictable. Even with all we've done so far they still may. More than 50k will be dead by the end of this week. If things had continued undeterred that number would have doubled, tripled, or more in May.
Good points.
On a personal note, and as evidence of just how scattered and ad hoc this all has been, I’m good friends with folks (who run a small biz unrelated to the medical field) who imported test kits via a non-vetted China supplier ... which were purchased by UW and destined for multi-state use ... that turned out to contaminated with bacteria. They were literally on the verge of importing millions of test kits ... to be purchased by our most respected academic institutions ... b/c there were no other avenues for these institutions to get them in a timely manner. Wow.
Obviously that's probably complicated but that's got to be the "putting out a bomber an hour" if we are going to reopen soon.
A population of only 10.2 million. A large ethnic majority (4 in 5 are Swedish ethnic group). Much lower immigrants as percent of total population (if you take away the Finnish immigrants, which are close enough to Swedish "ethnicity").
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html#mortality
I find the above graph informative because it includes COVID-19 deaths with Pneumonia and Influenza. Too many people are comparing COVID-19 deaths vs. historical flu death totals, kind of missing the point imo.
Just for perspective on that graph, the 2017-18 flu season was probably the worst flu season in decades. The article I linked below says the 80,000 deaths in this flu season was the worst in the last 43 years, since they started tracking it.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html
"An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This means it was the deadliest season in more than four decades -- since 1976, the date of the first published paper reporting total seasonal flu deaths, said CDC Spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund."
So based on the graph, you can see how even the worst flu season since 1976 isn't comparable to what we're dealing with right now.
But, perhaps taking the one size fits all approach was a little drastic. I get that time was of the essence and better safe than sorry. However, in the long run, it is quite possible that in many places, not going for the drastic shutdown, but opting for social distancing and minimal targeted shutdown may have been measure enough. We'll find out soon, because that's basically what the re-opening is going to be.
We'll have better capacity now with PPE/equipment/treatment/procedures/knowledge, so we'll be more prepared.
The biggest weapon/asset/foe has always been people. Sweden has been touted as having a populace willing to listen to, and implement, advised practices. Here in the US? Too many are the inspiration Jeff Dunham's Bubba Joe. Getting the masses to take this seriously fast enough may have needed the drastic shutdown to get their attention. Hell, a lot of folk still haven't gotten with the program!
But, I continue to believe we will find that we over reacted in many, if not most, places. It is understandable that in the early stages we did not have time to sort those areas out, so blanket shutdowns were arguably a good course of action.
Those things were cratering.
But, perhaps taking the one size fits all approach was a little drastic. I get that time was of the essence and better safe than sorry. However, in the long run, it is quite possible that in many places, not going for the drastic shutdown, but opting for social distancing and minimal targeted shutdown may have been measure enough. We'll find out soon, because that's basically what the re-opening is going to be.
We'll have better capacity now with PPE/equipment/treatment/procedures/knowledge, so we'll be more prepared.
The biggest weapon/asset/foe has always been people. Sweden has been touted as having a populace willing to listen to, and implement, advised practices. Here in the US? Too many are the inspiration Jeff Dunham's Bubba Joe. Getting the masses to take this seriously fast enough may have needed the drastic shutdown to get their attention. Hell, a lot of folk still haven't gotten with the program!
But, I continue to believe we will find that we over reacted in many, if not most, places. It is understandable that in the early stages we did not have time to sort those areas out, so blanket shutdowns were arguably a good course of action.
Swedens Healthcare System > USA Healthcare System and that is a big factor as well.
Those things were cratering.
Where is the link?
Not saying it isn't, just curious for that rationale since in the latest rankings I have seen Italy and France are #1 and #2 for healthcare systems (though we have discussed Italy's recent struggles on here already), Spain and the UK both better than the US.
All their responses have been as disastrous as the US or worse.
Plus, South Korea (ranked 58th) is way worse than the US (ranked 37th) and most of the Western Europe countries but their response was better (rankings per link below)
I have failed to see anyone connect healthcare system quality to results. It seems like by the time patients hit the healthcare system it seems like they are at the whim of their capacity, not necessarily the quality.
Care to explain?
link - ( New Window )
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People can actually download the data, and look at what was happening to demand and jobs in states that had not implemented shelter-in-place, or closing non-essential businesses.
Those things were cratering.
Where is the link?
Google unemployment claims by state, then go to the JHU dashboard for when states started to shelter in place (or close non-essential businesses).
There is a good article on this.
Article. - ( New Window )
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
There is a good article on this. Article. - ( New Window )
thanks, makes sense and I'm less concerned with actual country rankings (though I imagine they are at least directionally accurate but I don't think it matters if they're not), it just seems to me like the success you have with this pandemic as a country would be more linked to quality of data and when you get it, logistics and measures taken by groups like CDC, FEMA, the state EMA's, etc. than healthcare system.
Couple that with how people view the ER in the U.S. (source of primary care, because of our fucked up healthcare system), and you probably get some of the correlations that you do with healthcare systems and COVID-responses.
Not saying it isn't, just curious for that rationale since in the latest rankings I have seen Italy and France are #1 and #2 for healthcare systems (though we have discussed Italy's recent struggles on here already), Spain and the UK both better than the US.
All their responses have been as disastrous as the US or worse.
Plus, South Korea (ranked 58th) is way worse than the US (ranked 37th) and most of the Western Europe countries but their response was better (rankings per link below)
I have failed to see anyone connect healthcare system quality to results. It seems like by the time patients hit the healthcare system it seems like they are at the whim of their capacity, not necessarily the quality.
Care to explain? link - ( New Window )
My best stab at it is that their populations were disproportionately elderly. As demonstrated by their population Parmyids. This is probably one of the largest factors in why Italy was such a disaster in all of this and the country was much more densely populated.
Italy
France
Sweden
South Korea, was way more prepared for this than any other country, because they learned their lesson from the SARS and MERS outbreaks. They test and test and test and they check temps every where.
Their population is more skewed then I thought, as it is actually going through a population momentum seen after industrialization now, it seems.
South Korea
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
Pray for my grandparents and all the elderly down there.
It's not going to be pretty and I hope my grandparents can make it.
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
Even if Vegas is opened, how many are going to go there. I’m sure you will get some that will go. However, will the restaurants in the casinos be open. How do you play blackjack without touching the cards. How do you play craps without touching the dice.
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we will likely reach as many US deaths from Corona, in about 10 weeks, as we did from Vietnam (58,220), in about 10 years.
A silly correlation with Covid19 .
We’ve lost close to 80,000 with just the Flu in 2018. And we had a vaccine and antivirals.
Flu deaths are estimates based on surveys of flu-like symptoms, if I have that correctly. They normally give a huge range when giving any numbers.
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
I live in Florida. What "big picture? If people are sick and dying at an increased rate there is no "big picture". It's suffering and horrible. Tourism will never come back to a state where people will get sick. Get the state to a healthy point and then reopen. Just a few short weeks ago the Governor was turning cars with Northeast license plates around on I-95, now he wants to welcome them back?
Quote:
said the state is on verge of economic collapse. Vegas Mayor said shutdown is "total insanity". Both those places rely very heavily on tourism.
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
I live in Florida. What "big picture? If people are sick and dying at an increased rate there is no "big picture". It's suffering and horrible. Tourism will never come back to a state where people will get sick. Get the state to a healthy point and then reopen. Just a few short weeks ago the Governor was turning cars with Northeast license plates around on I-95, now he wants to welcome them back?
Has florida been hit that hard? i ak seriousky asking i havent been paying attention to florida..
If their healthcare system is not overrun, why cant he open? the qhole point of social distancing is to keep it down if it is down, then try and open
Quote:
In comment 14877026 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
said the state is on verge of economic collapse. Vegas Mayor said shutdown is "total insanity". Both those places rely very heavily on tourism.
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
I live in Florida. What "big picture? If people are sick and dying at an increased rate there is no "big picture". It's suffering and horrible. Tourism will never come back to a state where people will get sick. Get the state to a healthy point and then reopen. Just a few short weeks ago the Governor was turning cars with Northeast license plates around on I-95, now he wants to welcome them back?
Has florida been hit that hard? i ak seriousky asking i havent been paying attention to florida..
If their healthcare system is not overrun, why cant he open? the qhole point of social distancing is to keep it down if it is down, then try and open
Florida's nickname is "God's Waiting Room" Their elderly population is very high. They also started social distancing like a month later then everyone else, and have only been really sheltering in place for like 2 weeks.
It imposes external costs on the rest of the country, as we now have to support poor decisions made by state-level leaders, in terms of higher taxes and higher support for those areas. As well as taking resources away from areas that need it.
The upside benefits of opening (with no serious increase in infections) are that it provides a template.
But, given the risk averse nature of most of humanity (including most Americans), more weight MUST be put on the downside scenario, since that is the risk tolerance profile. Now, that doesn't mean that the downside outweighs the upside, but...
So, I'm really intrigued how they are going to save the economy by opening, when they have had less time being impacted.
Answer: they're fucked.
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In comment 14877130 RDJR said:
Quote:
In comment 14877026 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
said the state is on verge of economic collapse. Vegas Mayor said shutdown is "total insanity". Both those places rely very heavily on tourism.
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
I live in Florida. What "big picture? If people are sick and dying at an increased rate there is no "big picture". It's suffering and horrible. Tourism will never come back to a state where people will get sick. Get the state to a healthy point and then reopen. Just a few short weeks ago the Governor was turning cars with Northeast license plates around on I-95, now he wants to welcome them back?
Has florida been hit that hard? i ak seriousky asking i havent been paying attention to florida..
If their healthcare system is not overrun, why cant he open? the qhole point of social distancing is to keep it down if it is down, then try and open
Florida's nickname is "God's Waiting Room" Their elderly population is very high. They also started social distancing like a month later then everyone else, and have only been really sheltering in place for like 2 weeks.
that didnt really answer my question, is their hospitals overrun? if no i dont see the issue..
now if the hospitals all of sudden get a surge and he doesnt put the shelter in place back on then i would understand the outrage and rightfully he would get killed..
He is taking a big risk opening up 100%
Quote:
said the state is on verge of economic collapse. Vegas Mayor said shutdown is "total insanity". Both those places rely very heavily on tourism.
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
I live in Florida. What "big picture? If people are sick and dying at an increased rate there is no "big picture". It's suffering and horrible. Tourism will never come back to a state where people will get sick. Get the state to a healthy point and then reopen. Just a few short weeks ago the Governor was turning cars with Northeast license plates around on I-95, now he wants to welcome them back?
Passing on what was said. States are seeing the impact it is having on their financial viability moving forward.
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a "big factor"?
Not saying it isn't, just curious for that rationale since in the latest rankings I have seen Italy and France are #1 and #2 for healthcare systems (though we have discussed Italy's recent struggles on here already), Spain and the UK both better than the US.
All their responses have been as disastrous as the US or worse.
Plus, South Korea (ranked 58th) is way worse than the US (ranked 37th) and most of the Western Europe countries but their response was better (rankings per link below)
I have failed to see anyone connect healthcare system quality to results. It seems like by the time patients hit the healthcare system it seems like they are at the whim of their capacity, not necessarily the quality.
Care to explain? link - ( New Window )
My best stab at it is that their populations were disproportionately elderly. As demonstrated by their population Parmyids. This is probably one of the largest factors in why Italy was such a disaster in all of this and the country was much more densely populated.
Italy
France
Sweden
South Korea, was way more prepared for this than any other country, because they learned their lesson from the SARS and MERS outbreaks. They test and test and test and they check temps every where.
Their population is more skewed then I thought, as it is actually going through a population momentum seen after industrialization now, it seems.
South Korea
I have read multiple articles that claim the aging population as at best the 3rd likely cause of Italy's issues, the first two being usually slow response and lack of testing capacity. Neither of which are a function of healthcare.
Either way, even though I'm not convinced healthcare format or quality of has a major impact on COVID-19 success, I don't like country comparisons. Comparing most of these countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, etc.) would be a better comparison to a single US state like NY, FL, TX or CA than to the US as a whole. They are not similar to the whole US in any way - geography, population, culture, etc.
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In comment 14877138 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14877130 RDJR said:
Quote:
In comment 14877026 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
said the state is on verge of economic collapse. Vegas Mayor said shutdown is "total insanity". Both those places rely very heavily on tourism.
So despite what one thinks individually, leaders have to look at the big picture and long term consequences with both scenarios imo.
The funding program will be interesting to see how it helps. I wonder what percentage of companies receiving will ultimately fail.
I live in Florida. What "big picture? If people are sick and dying at an increased rate there is no "big picture". It's suffering and horrible. Tourism will never come back to a state where people will get sick. Get the state to a healthy point and then reopen. Just a few short weeks ago the Governor was turning cars with Northeast license plates around on I-95, now he wants to welcome them back?
Has florida been hit that hard? i ak seriousky asking i havent been paying attention to florida..
If their healthcare system is not overrun, why cant he open? the qhole point of social distancing is to keep it down if it is down, then try and open
Florida's nickname is "God's Waiting Room" Their elderly population is very high. They also started social distancing like a month later then everyone else, and have only been really sheltering in place for like 2 weeks.
that didnt really answer my question, is their hospitals overrun? if no i dont see the issue..
now if the hospitals all of sudden get a surge and he doesnt put the shelter in place back on then i would understand the outrage and rightfully he would get killed..
He is taking a big risk opening up 100%
They haven't even remotely flattened their curve. 2 weeks of quarantine in this mess is nothing. They have close to 29000 cases there.
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In comment 14877001 pjcas18 said:
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a "big factor"?
Not saying it isn't, just curious for that rationale since in the latest rankings I have seen Italy and France are #1 and #2 for healthcare systems (though we have discussed Italy's recent struggles on here already), Spain and the UK both better than the US.
All their responses have been as disastrous as the US or worse.
Plus, South Korea (ranked 58th) is way worse than the US (ranked 37th) and most of the Western Europe countries but their response was better (rankings per link below)
I have failed to see anyone connect healthcare system quality to results. It seems like by the time patients hit the healthcare system it seems like they are at the whim of their capacity, not necessarily the quality.
Care to explain? link - ( New Window )
My best stab at it is that their populations were disproportionately elderly. As demonstrated by their population Parmyids. This is probably one of the largest factors in why Italy was such a disaster in all of this and the country was much more densely populated.
Italy
France
Sweden
South Korea, was way more prepared for this than any other country, because they learned their lesson from the SARS and MERS outbreaks. They test and test and test and they check temps every where.
Their population is more skewed then I thought, as it is actually going through a population momentum seen after industrialization now, it seems.
South Korea
I have read multiple articles that claim the aging population as at best the 3rd likely cause of Italy's issues, the first two being usually slow response and lack of testing capacity. Neither of which are a function of healthcare.
Either way, even though I'm not convinced healthcare format or quality of has a major impact on COVID-19 success, I don't like country comparisons. Comparing most of these countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, etc.) would be a better comparison to a single US state like NY, FL, TX or CA than to the US as a whole. They are not similar to the whole US in any way - geography, population, culture, etc.
Well there are certain factors you can take away from each of these countries.
South Korea - They were on top of their shit from day 1. They didn't fuck around and they are not to this day.
Italy you have to take in a bunch of factors:
1) Their economy has been completely fucked for about a decade, mostly due to their aging population. They don't have enough younger people to support their aging population, so what they are forced to do is take in massive amounts of immigration primarily from war stricken parts of Africa, the Middle East, and in the early part of 2020 they took in a bunch of immigrants from Wuhan, which is how they believe the virus got there.
2) They are very heavily populated by density, much like New York.
3) They more than likely, unlike South Korea, didn't take it very seriously when they got their first case, and it spread like wild fire from there.
I'm not as familiar with France and how they are setup, so I cannot really speak to them.
Also, Stanford withdraws their application.
the right decisions. Yale should follow suit if they haven't already.
Since some here are interested in Florida, I have posted the link to the Florida DOH dashboard
FL DOH information - ( New Window )
It will take a long time to figure out the plethora of factors that go into an outbreak.
Since some here are interested in Florida, I have posted the link to the Florida DOH dashboard
FL DOH information - ( New Window )
Solid Data Map. You can really develop some KPIs off of that data set.
For those who don't know who Dr. Bright is, he is/was the director of BARDA (Biomedical Advances Research and Development Authority). [The agency that directs vaccine efforts] He pushed back on Donny's continued insistence that hydroxychloroquine was safe and effective treatment for COVID patients when the latest study showed the detrimental effects and higher death rate. Being the stable genius he is, he can't have anyone question his proclamations so Dr. Bright is out.
Since some here are interested in Florida, I have posted the link to the Florida DOH dashboard
FL DOH information - ( New Window )
The difference in outcomes right now is simple - it is tied to how many people get it. NY and CA shut down around the same time but for whatever reason a lot more people in NY got it (37k confirmed cases in CA vs. 262k in NY even though it has half the pop). Either it was there earlier or it was just that much more transmittable (or a combo of both). I haven't seen anyone suggest people in CA have better immunity than people in NY or that SK has an even better immunity than that over CA because they only have 11k cases. SK shut down the earliest so the least people got it.
Also the "kicking around for some time in CA" is being taken out of context. CA's official positive tests is less than .1% of population. In NY more than 1% of the population has tested positive. The higher than expected results from anti-body tests in LA projected 2-4% of the population having been infected, which was higher than the general 5-10x expected - but even if you used the highest end of the range (4%) it's still significantly less than the expected infection rate in NY. And all are significantly below the lowest speculated thresholds for herd immunity.
I have spent my entire career in vaccine development, in the government with CDC and BARDA and also in the biotechnology industry. My professional background has prepared me for a moment like this -- to confront and defeat a deadly virus that threatens Americans and people around the globe. To this point, I have led the government's efforts to invest in the best science available to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, this resulted in clashes with HHS political leadership, including criticism for my proactive efforts to invest early in vaccines and supplies critical to saving American lives. I also resisted efforts to fund potentially dangerous drugs promoted by those with political connections.
Specifically, and contrary to misguided directives, I limited the broad use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, promoted by the Administration as a panacea, but which clearly lack scientific merit. While I am prepared to look at all options and to think "outside the box" for effective treatments, I rightly resisted efforts to provide an unproven drug on demand to the American public. I insisted that these drugs be provided only to hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 while under the supervision of a physician. These drugs have potentially serious risks associated with them, including increased mortality observed in some recent studies in patients with COVID-19.
Sidelining me in the middle of this pandemic and placing politics and cronyism ahead of science puts lives at risk and stunts national efforts to safely and effectively address this urgent public health crisis.
I will request that the Inspector General of the Department of Health and Human Services investigate the manner in which this Administration has politicized the work of BARDA and has pressured me and other conscientious scientists to fund companies with political connections as well as efforts that lack scientific merit. Rushing blindly towards unproven drugs can be disastrous and result in countless more deaths. Science, in service to the health and safety of the American people, must always trump politics.
I am very grateful for the bipartisan support from Congress and their confidence in my leadership of BARDA as reflected in the generous appropriation to BARDA in the CARES 3 Act. It is my sincere hope that the dedicated professionals at BARDA and throughout HHS will be allowed to use the best scientific acumen and integrity to continue their efforts to stop the pandemic without political pressure or distractions. Americans deserve no less."
This is now must watch TV (in the days of self seclusion). After watching these each day I am convinced Trump just says things to piss off the media. He keeps repeating the phrases they hate, over and over and over.
Disclosure - I am not supporting Trump in this. I would much rather he act Presidential. However I really do think some of this is just him sticking it to the media
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as the WH press briefing will be entertaining with the questioning why Dr. Bright was reassigned. Being inside where the microphones can't be controlled will likely trigger Lil' Don.
This is now must watch TV (in the days of self seclusion). After watching these each day I am convinced Trump just says things to piss off the media. He keeps repeating the phrases they hate, over and over and over.
Disclosure - I am not supporting Trump in this. I would much rather he act Presidential. However I really do think some of this is just him sticking it to the media
Of course he is, he is a professional troll, he knows what his supporters like to hear..
I am suspicious of newer “studies” that claim short term use is dangerous. How is it that we never found out about these problems the first hundred years that this class of drugs was around ? This study by the V.A. is particularly egregious. Why was chloroquinine without Azithromycin even tested ? Doing so probably did endanger lives. How did they decide who got and when ? If they waited until 80 year old patients with emphysema slipped into a coma, I would expect it not to be successful.
Some detractors say we should wait for clinical trials. Is that how we approached AIDS ? We threw anything against it that looked promising and only over decades did we acquire data and draw scientific conclusions . So why the negativity about chloroquinine ? Here's where the conspiracy theories come in. Obviously it would be embarrassing to Trump and whaddaya know, Trump has been trying drastically reduce the authority and scope of the VA since he was elected. But there’s another thing. Chloroquinine, Azithromycin and Zinc are cheap. If it becomes a major or even the dominant therapy in treating COVID a lot of research , patents , expensive drugs and the wealth that goes with it go right out the window.
I think we a slightly higher CNN viewership on BBI.....just slightly.
I think we a slightly higher CNN viewership on BBI.....just slightly.
If it was a good trial, objective people will be able to look at the data and say whether the conclusion is valid or not. That's the only perspective there is. Nobody needs to be for or against the President to say anything (substantive) because the data are what the data are.
I am suspicious of newer “studies” that claim short term use is dangerous. How is it that we never found out about these problems the first hundred years that this class of drugs was around ? This study by the V.A. is particularly egregious. Why was chloroquinine without Azithromycin even tested ? Doing so probably did endanger lives. How did they decide who got and when ? If they waited until 80 year old patients with emphysema slipped into a coma, I would expect it not to be successful.
Some detractors say we should wait for clinical trials. Is that how we approached AIDS ? We threw anything against it that looked promising and only over decades did we acquire data and draw scientific conclusions . So why the negativity about chloroquinine ? Here's where the conspiracy theories come in. Obviously it would be embarrassing to Trump and whaddaya know, Trump has been trying drastically reduce the authority and scope of the VA since he was elected. But there’s another thing. Chloroquinine, Azithromycin and Zinc are cheap. If it becomes a major or even the dominant therapy in treating COVID a lot of research , patents , expensive drugs and the wealth that goes with it go right out the window.
I love how everyone is a fucking expert now because they half read a couple articles and feel they can offer opinions that contradict good science and medical practice.
Hydroxychloroquine is well known to have a potentially fatal side effect. It can cause a type of irregular heart rhythm that sometimes leads to cardiac arrest. It's rare, but nobody knows just how risky these drugs are for gravely ill COVID-19 patients. We are still learning how the virus works and it's not out of the question that these types of drugs could have more fatal interactions with infected patients.
No idea really what that means, but is it possible the way it began here in late January is different than when it made its way to NYC?
Probably not substantially. That seems like an extremely low mutation rate.
Like with most things in life, when you make up your mind with one side of a story, you are doing so at the risk you don't have the whole story. Today the President denied ever even hearing of Bright. Who knows if that's true or not, but politico has an article that might throw some water on this one-sided story. Or at least presents an alternative theory.
"If Bright opposed hydroxychloroquine, he certainly didn't make that clear from his email — quite the opposite," said the official, who has seen copies of the email exchanges.
Bright did not respond to multiple requests for comment on Tuesday and Wednesday. ...
“BARDA was not as responsive during the crisis” as it could have been, said one former official. “Rather than prioritizing therapeutics that could be available in weeks, Bright focused on products that would take weeks or months.” For instance, BARDA didn’t make what’s known as a broad agency announcement to solicit potential investments in diagnostics, vaccines or treatments until March, five weeks after HHS Secretary Alex Azar declared a public health emergency over the Covid-19 outbreak.....
“That’s three bets on basically the same mechanism of action,” said one outside analyst with knowledge of BARDA operations. “To do it to the exclusion of all else was insane.”...
link - ( New Window )
I've never been more afraid or anxious in my life about something beyond my control. I'm washing my hands 20 plus times a day, not getting within 15 feet of people if possible, worrying about older relatives...
It sucks.
Prescription Medications that May Be
Beneficial in Covid-19 Patients
Chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine: These are closely related drugs, but hydroxychloroquine is less toxic and has better activity against Sars-CoV-2 in the test tube.
The combination of azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine was initially shown to result in eradication of the virus in all Covid-19 patients by the 6th day of treatment in a small study from France. That study has been criticized because of design flaws. An 80-patient follow-up study from the same group showed promise but it wasn't placebo-controlled because the authors felt that it would be unethical to withhold treatment. The results of an even larger follow-up case series of 1061 patients by the same authors demonstrated that 91.7% were virus-free by day 10. Death rate was 0.47%, and there was no cardiac toxicity.
Results from larger randomized controlled studies from other researchers are still pending.
An unpublished, open-label trial of several hundred patients using azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine plus zinc noted a 100% survival rate without need for hospitalization in any patient. Even though there was no placebo group, we know enough about the natural course of this illness now to conclude that this case series is very promising.
Please note, even though there was a lack of cardiac toxicity in some studies thus far, the combination of these two drugs can prolong the QT interval which can cause serious heart rhythm disturbances, so it's prudent to perform regular EKG's during treatment.
Alinia (nitazoxanide) inhibited the Sars-CoV-2 in the test tube. There is a current study going on evaluating the efficacy of Alinia in Covid-19 patients.
Ivermectin can markedly reduce SARS-CoV-2 replication in the test tube, but the study used very high doses. Despite this, a recent placebo-controlled trial (not yet published) using ivermectin at a standard dose, and at just a one-dose administration, demonstrated a huge decrease in mortality among critically ill patients.
Remdesevir has demonstrated preliminary promising results in an uncontrolled case series of severely affected patients. It's not yet FDA-approved.
Medications that are Being Evaluated to Ascertain if they Worsen Outcomes or if They're Safe in Covid-19
The virus binds to ACE2, which is a protein in our bodies.
The highest risk groups for Covid-19 include those with high blood pressure, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers are frequently prescribed drugs for these conditions, and some of them may increase ACE2 levels. Of note, despite it being a binding site for viral entry, ACE2 may also be beneficial from the standpoint of lung injury, leading to significant questions as to the best course of action.
The safety, or danger, of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE inhibitors), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB's), and non-steroidal anti-inflammatories (NSAID's) in Covid-19 patients is currently being evaluated. Ibuprofen, a common over the counter NSAID, can increase ACE2 levels.
Whether to continue, or not continue, these medications is a case by case decision between you and your primary care physician or prescribing doctor, and has to take into account the full risk/benefit assessment of your individualized case.
At the time of this writing, on 4/18/2020 at 2:00 pm, The American Heart Association advised continuing treatment with ACE inhibitors and ARB's.
The World Health Organization originally recommended against NSAID's in the context of Covid-19, but has since reversed their position.
Suddenly stopping ACE inhibitors or ARB's can put some patients at risk of serious cardiovascular disease exacerbations.
Great question, I'd love to hear Bill's thoughts on all the anti-body tests out there.
If that’s true...and who knows what’s true....alongside the tiger being infected in the Bronx Zoo, it makes you wonder if the between bats and humans in Wuhan was some sort of feral feline.
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Like with most things in life, when you make up your mind with one side of a story, you are doing so at the risk you don't have the whole story. Today the President denied ever even hearing of Bright. Who knows if that's true or not, but politico has an article that might throw some water on this one-sided story. Or at least presents an alternative
So it’s better that he alleges that he’s never even heard of the guy who was the head of the federal agency tasked with developing a coronavirus vaccine? Interesting.
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In comment 14877436 Diver_Down said:
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Like with most things in life, when you make up your mind with one side of a story, you are doing so at the risk you don't have the whole story. Today the President denied ever even hearing of Bright. Who knows if that's true or not, but politico has an article that might throw some water on this one-sided story. Or at least presents an alternative
So it’s better that he alleges that he’s never even heard of the guy who was the head of the federal agency tasked with developing a coronavirus vaccine? Interesting.
I didn't comment on it being better or not. I don't even know if the comment is true - as I indicated. I included it without comment for Diver Down's benefit in case he did not watch the press conference.
That wasn't really the point of the post though.
Bob that’s a great question. The short answer is that it depends on the test. The spikes, unless you have the original SARS or even MERS, are very different. But they also have enough common sites where antibodies bind so that you can get a positive if you have the common coronaviruses. For some tests, happens more than others, especially for many, but not all, POCT on the market. By and large, if it looks like a test you can do at home or in your local doctors office, I wouldn’t take it.
Some of the real lab tests do a pretty good job of being specific. Some use a smaller portion of the spike called the “receptor binding domain” as the target. The RBD is even more unique to CoV-2. But, I’m not even sure that is completely specific. To really know for sure, people have to test with sera (blood) that they know contain antibodies to common coronaviruses and show that there’s no reaction in the test. Problem is, those sera are hard to come by. We were lucky to have some in our test development, but we’ve used it all up. I field tons of emails a day from legit labs ( public health labs, hospitals, med schools,etc) asking for sera that i I don’t have. So people just have to go with what they can do in validating their tests.
I have no idea the point of the briefings, but if you allow yourself to see past what's at stake (because you can't control it) they're kind of funny.
When he said today "I love Georgia, great people, strong people..." WTF? It was on in the background while my kids were sitting at the dinner table and one of them said to me "what did he just say?" It's surreal.
Tell me again how this rebound will be a "V"?
Don't forget the Thunderbirds.
@JerylBier
In March, Rick Bright requested the FDA issue an "Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for emergency use of oral formulations of chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate for the treatment of 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19)..."
https://fda.gov/media/136534/d
The PDF linked below does impose some conditions on it's use, but it doesn't seem like the way the NYT piece categorized it at all.
And I'm not sure anyone, president or otherwise suggested any other use beyond this stipulation.
link - ( New Window )
Apparently they are only counting confirmed positive infection deaths for people who die in the hospital.
They do not include deaths at home, including nursing homes. Nor have they adopted some type of way of getting a more accurate number through cursory (pre/post-mortem?) analysis, as I understand it.
Apparently, Italy uses the same criterion. I find it hard to believe I have not heard more about this until now. Pretty sobering.
UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study - ( New Window )
Tell me again how this rebound will be a "V"?
Most in my industry (finance) have planned for a u- or L- and somewhere between severely adverse and adverse in the annual stress testing exercise. Banks built significant reserves this quarter. The stock market, except for bank stocks, Oil, retail and some other industries - does seem to expect a little closer to a v- though, it’s pretty bizarre. I am 50% cash waiting for a better entry point.
Hopefully we can open up soon or it will take a decade to recover. I think it was you who said Florida is fucked - they might be but It’s all relative. Shutting down into the summer To save an unquantifiable amount of lives and seeing 40% unemployment and 20% drop in gdp vs reopening early or mid May and still seeing a nasty fucking recession but one that doesn’t permanently put hundreds of thousands into poverty .... I’ll
Take the latter.
COVID-19 in Italy: An analysis of death registry data - ( New Window )
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Test positive for COVID
If that’s true...and who knows what’s true....alongside the tiger being infected in the Bronx Zoo, it makes you wonder if the between bats and humans in Wuhan was some sort of feral feline.
Bill, It's actually 5 tigers and 2 lions at the Bronx Zoo that have tested positive now. Very interesting that its felines and not canines catching this
Flu deaths totals are based on surveys of symptoms, just for comparison.
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In comment 14877641 montanagiant said:
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Test positive for COVID
If that’s true...and who knows what’s true....alongside the tiger being infected in the Bronx Zoo, it makes you wonder if the between bats and humans in Wuhan was some sort of feral feline.
Bill, It's actually 5 tigers and 2 lions at the Bronx Zoo that have tested positive now. Very interesting that its felines and not canines catching this
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In comment 14877695 Bill L said:
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In comment 14877641 montanagiant said:
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Test positive for COVID
If that’s true...and who knows what’s true....alongside the tiger being infected in the Bronx Zoo, it makes you wonder if the between bats and humans in Wuhan was some sort of feral feline.
Bill, It's actually 5 tigers and 2 lions at the Bronx Zoo that have tested positive now. Very interesting that its felines and not canines catching this
Really. That’s interesting. It’s been so long since I’ve seen the news.
Are they getting sick?
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In comment 14877866 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14877695 Bill L said:
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In comment 14877641 montanagiant said:
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Test positive for COVID
If that’s true...and who knows what’s true....alongside the tiger being infected in the Bronx Zoo, it makes you wonder if the between bats and humans in Wuhan was some sort of feral feline.
Bill, It's actually 5 tigers and 2 lions at the Bronx Zoo that have tested positive now. Very interesting that its felines and not canines catching this
Really. That’s interesting. It’s been so long since I’ve seen the news.
Are they getting sick?
Don't know but here's the article from Nat Geo:
It is not clear when the additional tests on the three lions and four tigers were conducted or when the zoo received the results; a zoo spokesperson did not respond to questions about the timing. The USDA did not respond to National Geographic’s request for comment by press time.
Several domestic animals have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including two cats in New York State—the first in the United States, the USDA announced today. A Pomeranian and a German shepherd in Hong Kong, as well as a domestic cat in Belgium, have also tested positive. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention today issued new guidelines on the virus for pet owners, saying that while it does not recommend widespread testing at this time, it encourages cat owners to keep their cats indoors whenever possible.
Both wild and domestic cats had been known to susceptible to feline coronavirus—but until recently, it was unknown whether they could contract SARS-CoV-2. A new Chinese study has found that cats may be able to infect each other. Scientists now are rushing to learn what other species may be able to be infected by it.
Per this Dogs are also susceptible.
link - ( New Window )
I haven't received my slice of the cheese. Still the same status message. I'm eligible and they have my bank info. I don't need it so I'm not up in arms. But if everyone else is getting a slice, I want it too.
Are you thinking it will be transmitted by blood via the mosquitoes? It won't. It is a respiratory virus. It is transmitted via the droplets from a carrier to another either directly or the droplets contaminating a surface.
I did read that if you have direct deposit set up, but only to pay the Fed and not for a refund, that could be holding it up. In that scenario they ask that you update your information, which of course I can't do since their tool doesn't work for my address lookup.
I received mine yesterday via direct deposit. I checked the IRS site last week when payments were supposed to go out and it stated having issues if I was eligible. I checked Monday and it said I would receive it on the 22nd and sure enough got it. For those who have not received I suggest check every few days it seems they are updating the info regularly.
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Has anyone who qualify's not yet received their payment via direct deposit? If so any explanation as to why?
I haven't received my slice of the cheese. Still the same status message. I'm eligible and they have my bank info. I don't need it so I'm not up in arms. But if everyone else is getting a slice, I want it too.
‘Everyone’ else is not getting a slice. And I’m sure my taxes will go up next year to pay for these handouts. I understand people unemployed benefiting .... people still with jobs Getting this makes my blood boil.
Yes, we still have our jobs and I'm thankful for that but I play on spending that money when I get it because there's things I need to pay for. If I don't get it, i'm not spending it (the entire point of it). Wealthy people will remain largely unaffected so once again its up to the middle class to keep things going and if the middle class stops spending, we've got problems.
Some will use it for savings and not touch it, others will use it for investments, some will pay their rent/mortgage. All of that will eventually be spent whether its within the next 30 days or long term.
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In comment 14877866 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14877695 Bill L said:
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In comment 14877641 montanagiant said:
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Test positive for COVID
If that’s true...and who knows what’s true....alongside the tiger being infected in the Bronx Zoo, it makes you wonder if the between bats and humans in Wuhan was some sort of feral feline.
Bill, It's actually 5 tigers and 2 lions at the Bronx Zoo that have tested positive now. Very interesting that its felines and not canines catching this
Really. That’s interesting. It’s been so long since I’ve seen the news.
Are they getting sick?
They are saying the humans are spreading it to the Felines.
Also that the Felines cannot spread it to humans as the humans are the reason they are getting sick.
I don't know too much about how viruses can spread, but can some only be passed down and not the opposite way?
I'm not getting my 'slice'. I'm firmly in the segment of society expected to bear the brunt of this gov't largesse.
the rumor mill has it that the current unemployment benefits are higher than some of the recipients were making before they got laid off. If so, Merry Christmas a little early. Good luck getting them to go back to work before they have to.
There are a lot of people making out very well right now especially a few of my friends who are making close to $100k per year in the food/beverage business who's taxes are low due to it being a mostly cash business.
Hard for me to feel guilty about wanting my $1,200 when i'm still working and producing and people I know are kicking their feet up collecting a ton of money and doing nothing.
Now I know that isn't everyone and many are suffering because of this ordeal, but they need to keep people spending and that falls on the middle class.
the rumor mill has it that the current unemployment benefits are higher than some of the recipients were making before they got laid off. If so, Merry Christmas a little early. Good luck getting them to go back to work before they have to.
Christ, I don’t think anyone is going back to work before they have to.
God forbid some unfortunate people are able to pick up a couple hundred bucks in a time of need.
Haha, well, that's the bar/restaurant business for you, not to mention all those mom and pops who "don't take credit cards under $20".
Point being there's a lot of people gaming this system right now but it is what it is, the goal is to keep people spending money.
Innovation can help us get the numbers up. The current coronavirus tests require that health-care workers perform nasal swabs, which means they have to change their protective gear before every test. But our foundation supported research showing that having patients do the swab themselves produces results that are just as accurate. This self-swab approach is faster and safer, since regulators should be able to approve swabbing at home or in other locations rather than having people risk additional contact.
Another diagnostic test under development would work much like an at-home pregnancy test. You would swab your nose, but instead of sending it into a processing center, you’d put it in a liquid and then pour that liquid onto a strip of paper, which would change color if the virus was present. This test may be available in a few months.
For now, the United States can follow Germany’s example: interview everyone who tests positive and use a database to make sure someone follows up with all their contacts. This approach is far from perfect, because it relies on the infected person to report their contacts accurately and requires a lot of staff to follow up with everyone in person. But it would be an improvement over the sporadic way that contact tracing is being done across the United States now.
And perhaps the most interesting/potentially exciting nugget bolded below.
The new approach I’m most excited about is known as an RNA vaccine. (The first covid-19 vaccine to start human trials is an RNA vaccine.) Unlike a flu shot, which contains fragments of the influenza virus so your immune system can learn to attack them, an RNA vaccine gives your body the genetic code needed to produce viral fragments on its own. When the immune system sees these fragments, it learns how to attack them. An RNA vaccine essentially turns your body into its own vaccine manufacturing unit.
There are at least five other efforts that look promising. But because no one knows which approach will work, a number of them need to be funded so they can all advance at full speed simultaneously.
Here are the innovations we need to reopen the economy (wapo) - ( New Window )
These are:
Restrictions on mass gathering, date of initial business closures (maybe bars), date educational facilities closed, date that all non-essential businesses had to close, and date a stay-at-home (shelter-in-place) order was issued.
What do I find?
1. Each day that you waited on ordering a shelter in place led to 7.6% fewer employees filing for UI.
2. Each day that you waited on ordering mass restrictions led to 15.6% fewer employees filing for UI.
3. Each day that you waited to close educational facilities meant 3.0% MORE employees filing for UI.
4. Each day that you waited to close non-essential businesses led to 0.5% fewer employees filing for UI.
5. Each day that you waited to start initial business closure led to 43.3% MORE employees filing for UI.
Fear of the virus is depressing economic demand; states that waited longer for business closures have seen relatively higher RATES of unemployment, suggesting that people wouldn't go out even without restrictions.
@NYGovCuomo
·
4m
NEW: The first phase of results from a statewide antibody study are in.
We collected approximately 3,000 antibody samples from 40 locations in 19 counties.
Preliminary estimates show a 13.9% infection rate.
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Andrew Cuomo
@NYGovCuomo
·
4m
NEW: The first phase of results from a statewide antibody study are in.
We collected approximately 3,000 antibody samples from 40 locations in 19 counties.
Preliminary estimates show a 13.9% infection rate.
They tried to conduct a random enough sample to be representative of the population as a whole.
Since about 1.3-percent of New Yorkers have COVID-19, this means that for each person who did have it, about 2.7 million people in New York actually had it.
So, for every 1 person that has been confirmed, about 10 are unconfirmed.
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how to interpret this in terms of "what does this mean?"
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Andrew Cuomo
@NYGovCuomo
·
4m
NEW: The first phase of results from a statewide antibody study are in.
We collected approximately 3,000 antibody samples from 40 locations in 19 counties.
Preliminary estimates show a 13.9% infection rate.
They tried to conduct a random enough sample to be representative of the population as a whole.
Since about 1.3-percent of New Yorkers have COVID-19, this means that for each person who did have it, about 2.7 million people in New York actually had it.
So, for every 1 person that has been confirmed, about 10 are unconfirmed.
And if those #s are accurate, they're still not even close to the levels required for herd immunity.
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In comment 14877961 Bill L said:
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In comment 14877866 montanagiant said:
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In comment 14877695 Bill L said:
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In comment 14877641 montanagiant said:
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Test positive for COVID
If that’s true...and who knows what’s true....alongside the tiger being infected in the Bronx Zoo, it makes you wonder if the between bats and humans in Wuhan was some sort of feral feline.
Bill, It's actually 5 tigers and 2 lions at the Bronx Zoo that have tested positive now. Very interesting that its felines and not canines catching this
Really. That’s interesting. It’s been so long since I’ve seen the news.
Are they getting sick?
They are saying the humans are spreading it to the Felines.
Also that the Felines cannot spread it to humans as the humans are the reason they are getting sick.
I don't know too much about how viruses can spread, but can some only be passed down and not the opposite way?
Sure, that happens all the time. Some species are dead end hosts, meaning they can be infected but can't transmit. Usually that means that even though there's an infection, the virus doesn't replicate enough to pass on appreciable amounts to another individual (or species).
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In comment 14878672 pjcas18 said:
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how to interpret this in terms of "what does this mean?"
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Andrew Cuomo
@NYGovCuomo
·
4m
NEW: The first phase of results from a statewide antibody study are in.
We collected approximately 3,000 antibody samples from 40 locations in 19 counties.
Preliminary estimates show a 13.9% infection rate.
They tried to conduct a random enough sample to be representative of the population as a whole.
Since about 1.3-percent of New Yorkers have COVID-19, this means that for each person who did have it, about 2.7 million people in New York actually had it.
So, for every 1 person that has been confirmed, about 10 are unconfirmed.
And if those #s are accurate, they're still not even close to the levels required for herd immunity.
As if anyone really knows what immunity is wrt this particular virus.
So a 13.9% positivity rate would be about 10x the current % of people who have tested positive in all NY. Perhaps a little bit higher than expected, but not as much as the CA studies.
On the whole the trend with these anti-body studies seem to be coming in a little higher than expected and getting some criticism that they are prone to false positives, but Bill L and some of the others more knowledgeable on this thread can speak to how high quality these antibody tests are right now. Someone yesterday I believe brought up an interesting point that people could be false positives from having had different more common coronaviruses.
That seems relatively in line with most estimates also. 1% shas been the go to line from the Fauci's of the world for months and I'd imagine they are on the side of caution and that it ends up being somewhere between .5-1% when all is said and done.
But as you said still really scary. If 50% of the country gets it that's close to 1m dead.
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is off by a factor of 10; so rather than around 5.6%, it's 0.56%. Big, but still fucking scary.
That seems relatively in line with most estimates also. 1% shas been the go to line from the Fauci's of the world for months and I'd imagine they are on the side of caution and that it ends up being somewhere between .5-1% when all is said and done.
But as you said still really scary. If 50% of the country gets it that's close to 1m dead.
Yeah; as I told my class yesterday, pick one person at random in the class, and they are gone.
It's a sobering reminder of the impact that this thing can have.
Among the considerations businesses must weigh is their ability to access other sources of money, the SBA said.
"It is unlikely that a public company with substantial market value and access to capital markets will be able to make the required certification in good faith, and such a company should be prepared to demonstrate to SBA, upon request, the basis for its certification," the agency said.
PPP Frequently Asked Questions (updated today) - ( New Window )
In general, it works only a fraction of the time. Let's hope that shared suffering makes it a more binding suggestion.
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In comment 14878729 kicker said:
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is off by a factor of 10; so rather than around 5.6%, it's 0.56%. Big, but still fucking scary.
That seems relatively in line with most estimates also. 1% shas been the go to line from the Fauci's of the world for months and I'd imagine they are on the side of caution and that it ends up being somewhere between .5-1% when all is said and done.
But as you said still really scary. If 50% of the country gets it that's close to 1m dead.
Yeah; as I told my class yesterday, pick one person at random in the class, and they are gone.
It's a sobering reminder of the impact that this thing can have.
This whole thing didn't seem real until now.
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In comment 14878740 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 14878729 kicker said:
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is off by a factor of 10; so rather than around 5.6%, it's 0.56%. Big, but still fucking scary.
That seems relatively in line with most estimates also. 1% shas been the go to line from the Fauci's of the world for months and I'd imagine they are on the side of caution and that it ends up being somewhere between .5-1% when all is said and done.
But as you said still really scary. If 50% of the country gets it that's close to 1m dead.
Yeah; as I told my class yesterday, pick one person at random in the class, and they are gone.
It's a sobering reminder of the impact that this thing can have.
What do you tell them about cancer? We lost over 600,000 people to cancer in 2019 and we will lose another 600,000 in 2020 to cancer. And we will continue to lose people to cancer long after Covid-19 has mutated or anti-bodied itself out of mind.
Strawman is shitty strawman.
I'm sorry you're unable to distinguish 2 different (both important) concepts. Life must be hard.
not sure I understand this whole exercise of counting anyone who has COVID-19 regardless of their actual cause of death as a COVID-19 fatality.
I don't know if there are enough of those people in that category (either one - hospice or comorbidity) to make a statistical difference, but it certainly fans the flames of skepticism.
Add that to reports that COVID-19 cases get reimbursed at higher rates than non-COVID-19 cases and I think some broad definitions and explanations would be good.
So a 13.9% positivity rate would be about 10x the current % of people who have tested positive in all NY. Perhaps a little bit higher than expected, but not as much as the CA studies.
On the whole the trend with these anti-body studies seem to be coming in a little higher than expected and getting some criticism that they are prone to false positives, but Bill L and some of the others more knowledgeable on this thread can speak to how high quality these antibody tests are right now. Someone yesterday I believe brought up an interesting point that people could be false positives from having had different more common coronaviruses.
Well, on this one I can say that I have asshat knowledge that it's an excellent test.
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most of the experts I've seen over the last couple months have estimated the actual infection level to be about 5-10x the number of actual positive tests. As the positive infection rate on those who have been tested has stayed high I think the prevailing opinion has been that if anything we are on the higher range of positive infections not captured in tested.
So a 13.9% positivity rate would be about 10x the current % of people who have tested positive in all NY. Perhaps a little bit higher than expected, but not as much as the CA studies.
On the whole the trend with these anti-body studies seem to be coming in a little higher than expected and getting some criticism that they are prone to false positives, but Bill L and some of the others more knowledgeable on this thread can speak to how high quality these antibody tests are right now. Someone yesterday I believe brought up an interesting point that people could be false positives from having had different more common coronaviruses.
Well, on this one I can say that I have asshat knowledge that it's an excellent test.
Oh, and to the other point, this one is highly unlikely to be influenced by common coronaviruses.
not sure I understand this whole exercise of counting anyone who has COVID-19 regardless of their actual cause of death as a COVID-19 fatality.
I don't know if there are enough of those people in that category (either one - hospice or comorbidity) to make a statistical difference, but it certainly fans the flames of skepticism.
Add that to reports that COVID-19 cases get reimbursed at higher rates than non-COVID-19 cases and I think some broad definitions and explanations would be good.
Cause of death data is well known to have severe limitations. This is nothing new (i.e., complaints about what is calculated as what). For instance, in the opioid crisis, what constitutes an opioid overdose death isn't cut-and-defined.
Direct? Or are you suggesting indirect deaths like a guy has a heart attack, but couldn't get to the hospital or because of unemployment people starved.
if direct, I'd love to hear how with some specifics if you can share them.
Obviously a person on hospice,regardless of age, is losing little to no life expectancy while a healthy 30 year old dying is losing roughly 48 years.
Pre-existing conditions are known in many cases and we sure know insurance companies can model how many years conditions will take off the back end of someone's life.
Obviously a person on hospice,regardless of age, is losing little to no life expectancy while a healthy 30 year old dying is losing roughly 48 years.
Pre-existing conditions are known in many cases and we sure know insurance companies can model how many years conditions will take off the back end of someone's life.
There are - see link below. This paper is awaiting peer review (found it via a Harvard epidemiologist on twitter).
COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study - ( New Window )
The increased deaths in 2020 (compared to the typical year) were significantly larger than the reported COVID 19 deaths.
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do you know if the NY test is the same test that was used in the CA studies?
It's not. It's one developed by, and only used in, NYS
any opinion on whether or not it was as good as the NYS one?
Optics shouldn't be the main reason for policy decisions, but when you have a policy that seems questionable, like this one, in an emotionally charged issue, like this one, optics should be a consideration.
I would exclude the hospice patients.
The increased deaths in 2020 (compared to the typical year) were significantly larger than the reported COVID 19 deaths.
When all is said and done that type of methodology will likely be the simplest way to estimate the true impact.
The increased deaths in 2020 (compared to the typical year) were significantly larger than the reported COVID 19 deaths.
The UK noticed the same thing. They only log Covid deaths by deaths in hospital after a positive test. But they're having 8000 more poeple die every week than on average. Also this:
'The statistics showed deaths in care homes had doubled over recent weeks, but only 17% of the death certificates mentioned COVID-19.'
FT analysis sees UK coronavirus death toll at 41,000, not 17,337 - ( New Window )
We would love to be able to open our business back up because we are struggling financially. However, we know how awful this can be from my own experience. We also fear what potential liability we could have if a client contracts COVID-19 and somehow tries to blame my husband. Is that a reach? Perhaps, but we still don't know the answer WRT liability. If my husband's antibody test comes back positive, that might help us move forward faster (or if it comes back negative - we're back to square one) but until then, we just don't know. We also haven't qualified for a lot of the small business resources for a variety of reasons. With our income tax refund and the stimulus money we received (we received the direct deposit last week), we can probably get by for maybe two more months, but it will be a stretch.
So, all this is to say I completely see both sides as I am experiencing both situations. I was really sick AND am struggling because my small business is closed. I would not wish the illness on anyone and I was not even among the sickest of the sick. I came out OK but was in relative good health beforehand (not that it necessarily makes a difference). I don't even know how many people will be interested in getting a massage soon anyway (though stress levels might have some seek one sooner rather than later) and our chair massage services (where companies bring us in to give chair massages to staff) won't be opening anytime soon, if at all ever again. We'll adapt somehow because we have to.
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In comment 14878986 Eric on Li said:
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do you know if the NY test is the same test that was used in the CA studies?
It's not. It's one developed by, and only used in, NYS
any opinion on whether or not it was as good as the NYS one?
It's outstanding lol
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In comment 14878993 Bill L said:
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In comment 14878986 Eric on Li said:
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do you know if the NY test is the same test that was used in the CA studies?
It's not. It's one developed by, and only used in, NYS
any opinion on whether or not it was as good as the NYS one?
It's outstanding lol
Oh wait, belay that. I thought you were asking if the NYS was a good one. I have to go look to see what they were using in CA.
Thanks, Eric. I appreciate it. We have applied for a PPP loan but don't have any employees besides my husband and based on their formula, only qualify for $1,600. I still applied for it - anything would be helpful - but we were hoping for $5,000 to $10,000, which is still a drop in the bucket compared with what others need. We just want to be able to cover our office rent for a while. I am extraordinarily grateful that I still have a full-time job and my boss was super-supportive when I was sick so we are very fortunate, on the whole.
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most of the experts I've seen over the last couple months have estimated the actual infection level to be about 5-10x the number of actual positive tests. As the positive infection rate on those who have been tested has stayed high I think the prevailing opinion has been that if anything we are on the higher range of positive infections not captured in tested.
So a 13.9% positivity rate would be about 10x the current % of people who have tested positive in all NY. Perhaps a little bit higher than expected, but not as much as the CA studies.
On the whole the trend with these anti-body studies seem to be coming in a little higher than expected and getting some criticism that they are prone to false positives, but Bill L and some of the others more knowledgeable on this thread can speak to how high quality these antibody tests are right now. Someone yesterday I believe brought up an interesting point that people could be false positives from having had different more common coronaviruses.
Well I dont put too much stock in the 13.9%... the state's GDP is driven by NYC/Westchester/LI, etc. - and NYC's infection rate is 21% !? That's pretty damn pervasive and means we really need to consider opening up sooner than the rumors i'm hearing (which is that summer camps will soon be closed, most stuff closed for months longer, etc.).
I guess we know what Bill's been working on these last few weeks!
Is there an estimate on how long the test will pick up whether one had the virus? I think I recall you, or someone, indicating that antibodies of corona viruses only stay detectable for a month (ish) after symptoms clear up. If so, I'm running out of time to see if I had it.
and if you are at work outside and aren't essential
LISTEN TO THE F***** link! Covid Song - ( New Window )
Dude, you can't post a link to your inbox.
If you see this, how do you want me to contact you. Montana's arrived today. You can ask him how he likes them.
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also it sounds like a PPP loan would be ideal for your biz situation if you can find a way to get an application in (if you haven't done so you should check w/ your bank).
Thanks, Eric. I appreciate it. We have applied for a PPP loan but don't have any employees besides my husband and based on their formula, only qualify for $1,600. I still applied for it - anything would be helpful - but we were hoping for $5,000 to $10,000, which is still a drop in the bucket compared with what others need. We just want to be able to cover our office rent for a while. I am extraordinarily grateful that I still have a full-time job and my boss was super-supportive when I was sick so we are very fortunate, on the whole.
Not sure if you can re-apply but whatever you pay yourselves is payroll cost (unless you are both netting > 100k).
I guess we know what Bill's been working on these last few weeks!
Is there an estimate on how long the test will pick up whether one had the virus? I think I recall you, or someone, indicating that antibodies of corona viruses only stay detectable for a month (ish) after symptoms clear up. If so, I'm running out of time to see if I had it.
I don't think anyone has a good idea of how long antibodies to this virus last. We're not even 2 months in to it.
He added: "I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that."
UV light inside the body? A shot of disinfectant? With the improper health messaging that is conveyed at these briefings would it come as a surprise if we see an increase in poisoning due to disinfectant? Yes, the rate of poisoning has already increased by 36% from the same time last year (Time article on poisoning).
Yes, it’s come to this.
The look on Dr. Birx’s face during that embarrassing display by the President... God help us.
The magnificent basterd was practicing good health!
Desperate times....
Desperate times....
Riiight...
So who will be testing the disinfectant injections or high UV rays?
That’s a good question. Maybe we’ll hear more on that diuring today’s conference.
Maybe it works. We don’t know that. You don’t know that. I’m not a doctor but I gotta say, hey - what do we have to lose (aside from our dignity)?
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Are anal UV lights on the market yet?
That’s a good question. Maybe we’ll hear more on that diuring today’s conference.
Maybe it works. We don’t know that. You don’t know that. I’m not a doctor but I gotta say, hey - what do we have to lose (aside from our dignity)?
No doubt, I expect to read about people retrofitting their Christmas lights with UV bulbs and shoving them up their ass.
Birx reaction
Link - ( New Window )
Perfect
Someone should explain to him that these dumba$$ suggestions are only hurting his reelection campaign, one fish owner at a time...
Sadly the only thing that might get thru to him.
*CAUTION: Side effects of ingesting Clorox bleach include blindness and death
the onion tweet - ( New Window )
"We want to neutralize heavy metals because they slow-up the electromagnetic frequency of our cells, which is our energy field, and we need a good flow of energy," Cuomo explains.
Pretty sensible stuff there!
Link - ( New Window )
the onion tweet - ( New Window )
FAKE NEWS
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As President Donald Trump appeared to question Thursday whether disinfectant could be used to treat coronavirus patients – to the dismay of medical professionals – Cuomo says she adds "½ cup ONLY of Clorox" to her bathwater to "combat the radiation and metals in my system and oxygenate it."
"We want to neutralize heavy metals because they slow-up the electromagnetic frequency of our cells, which is our energy field, and we need a good flow of energy," Cuomo explains.
Pretty sensible stuff there! Link - ( New Window )
Meanwhile her husband who was supposed to be in his basement quarantined was seen a week ago outside of his second home talking to neighbors....then got into a verbal altercation with a biker..
Then had the balls to film himself yesterday leaving the basement like he has been there the entire time
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As President Donald Trump appeared to question Thursday whether disinfectant could be used to treat coronavirus patients – to the dismay of medical professionals – Cuomo says she adds "½ cup ONLY of Clorox" to her bathwater to "combat the radiation and metals in my system and oxygenate it."
"We want to neutralize heavy metals because they slow-up the electromagnetic frequency of our cells, which is our energy field, and we need a good flow of energy," Cuomo explains.
Pretty sensible stuff there! Link - ( New Window )
Meanwhile her husband who was supposed to be in his basement quarantined was seen a week ago outside of his second home talking to neighbors....then got into a verbal altercation with a biker..
Then had the balls to film himself yesterday leaving the basement like he has been there the entire time
His "second home" is where he has been quarantining and riding out the pandemic, which is presumably more spacious than a NYC apartment. It just sounds better to say he was in his second home as if he was just parading around the state.
The altercation took place while Cuomo was in his own yard. Should he have gone outside at all during the three weeks? That's another discussion.
Also, he filmed himself coming upstairs because it was the first time, presumably, that he was anywhere in his house other than his basement for three weeks. That he could be in the same rooms as his kids and wife, and be in close personal space. I imagine it was a very happy moment for him and his family.
When Bubs comes upstairs in The Wire, the impact of the scene wasn't because he was locked in the basement without going outside up until that point.
@MDMEMA
·
2h
ALERT🚨: We have received several calls regarding questions about disinfectant use and #COVID19.
This is a reminder that under no circumstances should any disinfectant product be administered into the body through injection, ingestion or any other route.
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In comment 14882057 widmerseyebrow said:
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As President Donald Trump appeared to question Thursday whether disinfectant could be used to treat coronavirus patients – to the dismay of medical professionals – Cuomo says she adds "½ cup ONLY of Clorox" to her bathwater to "combat the radiation and metals in my system and oxygenate it."
"We want to neutralize heavy metals because they slow-up the electromagnetic frequency of our cells, which is our energy field, and we need a good flow of energy," Cuomo explains.
Pretty sensible stuff there! Link - ( New Window )
Meanwhile her husband who was supposed to be in his basement quarantined was seen a week ago outside of his second home talking to neighbors....then got into a verbal altercation with a biker..
Then had the balls to film himself yesterday leaving the basement like he has been there the entire time
His "second home" is where he has been quarantining and riding out the pandemic, which is presumably more spacious than a NYC apartment. It just sounds better to say he was in his second home as if he was just parading around the state.
The altercation took place while Cuomo was in his own yard. Should he have gone outside at all during the three weeks? That's another discussion.
Also, he filmed himself coming upstairs because it was the first time, presumably, that he was anywhere in his house other than his basement for three weeks. That he could be in the same rooms as his kids and wife, and be in close personal space. I imagine it was a very happy moment for him and his family.
When Bubs comes upstairs in The Wire, the impact of the scene wasn't because he was locked in the basement without going outside up until that point.
Umm no he was at his lot he bought checking on the construction with his wife and another woman..
He got called out by someone who spotted him and he flipped out at the person..
He wasnt just outside his house, he traveled to the property while he was supposed to be in quarantine..
so dont then post video of you climbing from your basement like you havnt seen the light of day for 3 weeks..
Did you miss the president talking about injecting detergents? No comments on that dude, just bitching about Chris Cuomo?
But the larger criticism of the video of him coming out of his basement is ridiculous. Regardless of the incident, he was staying in his basement the entire rest of the time for several weeks. It's still a big positive moment for him to get the all-clear and be able to resume his normal in-house life. But even in the video Chris never said that he never left the basement, just that he was finally able to rejoin his family in the rest of the house. Was it sensationalized? Perhaps. But people are acting like he never spent time in there at all.
With all the issues in what opinion hosts have done during the Covid outbreak (and gong back well before that), deciding to make CNN's sympathetic clip of one of their own the cause celebre is preposterous.
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In comment 14882057 widmerseyebrow said:
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As President Donald Trump appeared to question Thursday whether disinfectant could be used to treat coronavirus patients – to the dismay of medical professionals – Cuomo says she adds "½ cup ONLY of Clorox" to her bathwater to "combat the radiation and metals in my system and oxygenate it."
"We want to neutralize heavy metals because they slow-up the electromagnetic frequency of our cells, which is our energy field, and we need a good flow of energy," Cuomo explains.
When Bubs comes upstairs in The Wire, the impact of the scene wasn't because he was locked in the basement without going outside up until that point.
I think I'd trust Bubs for medical advice before I trust Fredo's wife.
Did you miss the president talking about injecting detergents? No comments on that dude, just bitching about Chris Cuomo?
maybe because his wife is telling people she took baths in bleach in that helped her get over the virus..
And the people who are calling their local emergency management agencies asking about it are either morons or doing so intentionally. Anyone who claims "the President told people to inject lysol in their body" is being disingenuous or flat out lying.
Anyone who ingests anything based on this transcript (or fish bowl cleaner based on other comments about hydroxychloroquine) is just perpetuating Darwin's theory.
Not excusing his comments, but definitely a lot of amplification and exaggeration of what he said.
But I think it speaks to a larger issue here. Some of theposters on here ripping a wellness blogger / wife of a news opinion host for her Covid regimen that includes a benign activity such as a diluted bleach bath are silent as to the completely dangerous and preposterous ramblings of perhaps the most powerful person in the free world which suggest INGESTING bleach?
How could it possibly be that someone would take more issue with what the former did?
We all have our biases, but we aren't dumb. I don't need to read a transcript when I heard it from his own tremendous mouth.
But I think it speaks to a larger issue here. Some of theposters on here ripping a wellness blogger / wife of a news opinion host for her Covid regimen that includes a benign activity such as a diluted bleach bath are silent as to the completely dangerous and preposterous ramblings of perhaps the most powerful person in the free world which suggest INGESTING bleach?
How could it possibly be that someone would take more issue with what the former did?
Because when you mention said person you are immediately banned, so some people try to stay away from naming or bringing up those leaders...
some of us like posting here and do not want to be suspended or banned
We all have our biases, but we aren't dumb. I don't need to read a transcript when I heard it from his own tremendous mouth.
That's not the actual transcript? verbatim?
If not, my apologies. I did not watch the press conference yesterday, only this clip that made the rounds.
I was under the impression what I posted is the literal, exact transcript of his words.
If not, I apologize.
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That's what you're fucking mad about? Who fucking cares?
Did you miss the president talking about injecting detergents? No comments on that dude, just bitching about Chris Cuomo?
maybe because his wife is telling people she took baths in bleach in that helped her get over the virus..
Two points:
1) The bleach bath she spoke is a recommended treatment for some conditions, eczema in particular. There’s no proof it’s a treatment for Covid-19. But done correctly, it’s safe to do. On the other hand, if you inject yourself with Lysol or Clorox, you’re going to die.
2) More importantly: Christina Cuomo is not the President of United States speaking on national television to millions of Americans providing information that are supposed to be relying on for their survival. Mentioning “treatments”, even in passing, that are lethal from the White House is beyond irresponsible.
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then you post the whitewashed transcript. It has been all over the news that the transcript that the WH is trying to pass off as what was said isn't actually what was said.
We all have our biases, but we aren't dumb. I don't need to read a transcript when I heard it from his own tremendous mouth.
That's not the actual transcript? verbatim?
If not, my apologies. I did not watch the press conference yesterday, only this clip that made the rounds.
I was under the impression what I posted is the literal, exact transcript of his words.
If not, I apologize.
I apologize for my quick response. I just checked the screenshot word for word and it is indeed verbatim. Today, he was trying to whitewash what was said and proposes that he was being sarcastic with reporters despite the video showing him making his comments as he looked over at Bryan and Birx. It wasn't sarcasm. It was reckless.
And yes, you are correct that anyone who is going to toss back a couple of shooters of bleach or take a hot shot of Lysol deserves the consequences. And he should really talk less and just let the experts handle it.
Once is a pattern, a couple months worth is a trend.
We all have our biases, but we aren't dumb. I don't need to read a transcript when I heard it from his own tremendous mouth.
Finally a call-out for the biggest fucking phony on this site..
But doing an image search of it to see where it came from, it looks like it was posted by Jack Posobiec, who has a sizable Twitter following, unfortunately. If you saw the image on Twitter because you follow him, he doesn't deserve the attention or the oxygen.
He is an antisemitic, white supremacist troll who perpetuated actual fake news like Pizzagate. He is human garbage.
That has to be one of the dumbest stuff ever uttered by a leader of a respected nation.
When a reporter comments that he's here for information and not rumors, Trumps says "I'm the president and you're fake news".
I know we're not supposed to get political here, but even the most ardent supporter can't honestly watch that clip and not cringe.
Even if you chalk it up to clumsy communication, it's the kind of discussion that should be behind closed doors, not ad libbing in a national press conference
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In comment 14882445 Diver_Down said:
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then you post the whitewashed transcript. It has been all over the news that the transcript that the WH is trying to pass off as what was said isn't actually what was said.
We all have our biases, but we aren't dumb. I don't need to read a transcript when I heard it from his own tremendous mouth.
That's not the actual transcript? verbatim?
If not, my apologies. I did not watch the press conference yesterday, only this clip that made the rounds.
I was under the impression what I posted is the literal, exact transcript of his words.
If not, I apologize.
I apologize for my quick response. I just checked the screenshot word for word and it is indeed verbatim. Today, he was trying to whitewash what was said and proposes that he was being sarcastic with reporters despite the video showing him making his comments as he looked over at Bryan and Birx. It wasn't sarcasm. It was reckless.
And yes, you are correct that anyone who is going to toss back a couple of shooters of bleach or take a hot shot of Lysol deserves the consequences. And he should really talk less and just let the experts handle it.
I think you were confusing it with the other transcript that was altered to show that Dr. Brix agreed with him when she did not do so. They fixed that a few hours later when called out on it
But doing an image search of it to see where it came from, it looks like it was posted by Jack Posobiec, who has a sizable Twitter following, unfortunately. If you saw the image on Twitter because you follow him, he doesn't deserve the attention or the oxygen.
He is an antisemitic, white supremacist troll who perpetuated actual fake news like Pizzagate. He is human garbage.
I follow lots of people on twitter. He can be the biggest piece of shit on the planet, but his image of the transcript was correct (it seems)
That has to be one of the dumbest stuff ever uttered by a leader of a respected nation.
When a reporter comments that he's here for information and not rumors, Trumps says "I'm the president and you're fake news".
I know we're not supposed to get political here, but even the most ardent supporter can't honestly watch that clip and not cringe.
Even if you chalk it up to clumsy communication, it's the kind of discussion that should be behind closed doors, not ad libbing in a national press conference
Agree. I never once ever came close to defending the comments. In fact I called them "clumsy, reckless, and irresponsible"
but when they get amplified or morphed into something they weren't it lessens how horrifying it is that those words were uttered by a POTUS in a setting like this, and it changes the story into how people need to misrepresent what he said to make it worse.
Unnecessary, and it backfires.
Leave federal level details, such as what the numbers are looking at, status of health equipment, and national economic news to the President. If he wants, he can always talk about how to manage multiple bankruptcies...
Before they went out they probably told him uv light and cleaners kill it in a minute, so when they were talking he decided to adlib and he just sounds stupid
...
I think you were confusing it with the other transcript that was altered to show that Dr. Brix agreed with him when she did not do so. They fixed that a few hours later when called out on it
Yes. Last night, the WH press secretary said his comments were taken out of context. Then the phony whitewashed transcript. Then the correction and by noon, it was being dismissed as sarcasm with a reporter.
What discredits him is when he tries to say he said something else when he didn't. I think most people would have more respect for him if he just flat out admitted to smoking a bowl before the presser. That along with his comments is believable. Who hasn't come up with some crazy ass ideas knee deep in the weed(s)?
Leave federal level details, such as what the numbers are looking at, status of health equipment, and national economic news to the President. If he wants, he can always talk about how to manage multiple bankruptcies...
I don't think anyone would push back on this. well maybe one person.
Quote:
then you post the whitewashed transcript. It has been all over the news that the transcript that the WH is trying to pass off as what was said isn't actually what was said.
We all have our biases, but we aren't dumb. I don't need to read a transcript when I heard it from his own tremendous mouth.
Finally a call-out for the biggest fucking phony on this site..
How am I a phony? I'd love to hear this one if you can stay coherent enough to make it through a full post.
Quote:
that image is an accurate transcript of his insane, irresponsible rambling.
But doing an image search of it to see where it came from, it looks like it was posted by Jack Posobiec, who has a sizable Twitter following, unfortunately. If you saw the image on Twitter because you follow him, he doesn't deserve the attention or the oxygen.
He is an antisemitic, white supremacist troll who perpetuated actual fake news like Pizzagate. He is human garbage.
I follow lots of people on twitter. He can be the biggest piece of shit on the planet, but his image of the transcript was correct (it seems)
I’m sure you follow allow the professional trolls, white supremacists, and grifters in your valiant attempt to consider all sides. Some heroes don’t wear capes.
Before they went out they probably told him uv light and cleaners kill it in a minute, so when they were talking he decided to adlib and he just sounds stupid
There's a reason he sounds stupid.
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In comment 14882499 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that image is an accurate transcript of his insane, irresponsible rambling.
But doing an image search of it to see where it came from, it looks like it was posted by Jack Posobiec, who has a sizable Twitter following, unfortunately. If you saw the image on Twitter because you follow him, he doesn't deserve the attention or the oxygen.
He is an antisemitic, white supremacist troll who perpetuated actual fake news like Pizzagate. He is human garbage.
I follow lots of people on twitter. He can be the biggest piece of shit on the planet, but his image of the transcript was correct (it seems)
I’m sure you follow allow the professional trolls, white supremacists, and grifters in your valiant attempt to consider all sides. Some heroes don’t wear capes.
Of course, throw stones because someone is different than you. You've got guts.
I know who I am, I don't have to explain to anyone who I follow on twitter or why.
Quote:
In comment 14882538 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14882499 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that image is an accurate transcript of his insane, irresponsible rambling.
But doing an image search of it to see where it came from, it looks like it was posted by Jack Posobiec, who has a sizable Twitter following, unfortunately. If you saw the image on Twitter because you follow him, he doesn't deserve the attention or the oxygen.
He is an antisemitic, white supremacist troll who perpetuated actual fake news like Pizzagate. He is human garbage.
I follow lots of people on twitter. He can be the biggest piece of shit on the planet, but his image of the transcript was correct (it seems)
I’m sure you follow allow the professional trolls, white supremacists, and grifters in your valiant attempt to consider all sides. Some heroes don’t wear capes.
Of course, throw stones because someone is different than you. You've got guts.
I know who I am, I don't have to explain to anyone who I follow on twitter or why.
We know who you are too, so that works out nicely.
Quote:
In comment 14882603 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
In comment 14882538 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14882499 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that image is an accurate transcript of his insane, irresponsible rambling.
But doing an image search of it to see where it came from, it looks like it was posted by Jack Posobiec, who has a sizable Twitter following, unfortunately. If you saw the image on Twitter because you follow him, he doesn't deserve the attention or the oxygen.
He is an antisemitic, white supremacist troll who perpetuated actual fake news like Pizzagate. He is human garbage.
I follow lots of people on twitter. He can be the biggest piece of shit on the planet, but his image of the transcript was correct (it seems)
I’m sure you follow allow the professional trolls, white supremacists, and grifters in your valiant attempt to consider all sides. Some heroes don’t wear capes.
Of course, throw stones because someone is different than you. You've got guts.
I know who I am, I don't have to explain to anyone who I follow on twitter or why.
We know who you are too, so that works out nicely.
Likewise.
They are throwing stones at the stories and sources you promote into discourse.
Now, if you self identify with those sources and stories such that it "feels" deeply then maybe its time to consider if you are just talking or in truth proselytizing.
Either way thats an internal conversation for you to have sometime
Based on the National Syndromic Surveillance Program, which is a collaboration among CDC, federal partners, local and state health departments and academic and private sector partners to collect, analyze and share electronic patient encounter data received from multiple healthcare settings. To track trends of potential COVID-19 visits, visits for COVID-19-like illness (CLI) (fever and cough or shortness of breath or difficulty breathing or presence of a coronavirus diagnosis code) and ILI to a subset of emergency departments in 47 states are being monitored.
So it seems like those trends in emergency visits going down is the type of news we were hoping to hear and matches with the projections that were made. It seems like our peak in death totals was around April 15th, and 2k people have died on a daily basis from about April 11th through today. However, since death is a lagging indicator, the death totals are projected to drop over these next few days and below 1k per day on May 1st. After a BRUTAL April, it will be good to see the death totals start to drop on a daily basis (although 500-1k people dying a day isn't exactly a reason to celebrate).
For the first time you can kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully we don't see an unexpected resurgence with some states slowly opening up. Obviously we still have to worry about and prepare for the 2nd wave in the Fall.
Its not the job of any of us to stretch to defend their bad products or sayings.
Its our job to judge each performance no matter if we started rooting for them or not.
Imo
I'm doing well Bill, thanks. Hope you're doing fine yourself. I've enjoyed reading your posts on this thread, you and a bunch of others here have provided quality discussion from a variety of angles on this topic.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html#mortality
That's the sauce for my graph above.
Its not the job of any of us to stretch to defend their bad products or sayings.
Its our job to judge each performance no matter if we started rooting for them or not.
Imo
I agree with you 100%. But it's our job to judge what they say not how someone spins what they said.
that's all my point has ever been.
And I don't root for anyone. I want what's best for my family and my country. that simple. No matter who is in charge or which party or any other attribute my respect for the highest office and desire for positive outcomes doesn't waver even a little. whether people call me a phony or not (don't care).
Based on the National Syndromic Surveillance Program, which is a collaboration among CDC, federal partners, local and state health departments and academic and private sector partners to collect, analyze and share electronic patient encounter data received from multiple healthcare settings. To track trends of potential COVID-19 visits, visits for COVID-19-like illness (CLI) (fever and cough or shortness of breath or difficulty breathing or presence of a coronavirus diagnosis code) and ILI to a subset of emergency departments in 47 states are being monitored.
So it seems like those trends in emergency visits going down is the type of news we were hoping to hear and matches with the projections that were made. It seems like our peak in death totals was around April 15th, and 2k people have died on a daily basis from about April 11th through today. However, since death is a lagging indicator, the death totals are projected to drop over these next few days and below 1k per day on May 1st. After a BRUTAL April, it will be good to see the death totals start to drop on a daily basis (although 500-1k people dying a day isn't exactly a reason to celebrate).
For the first time you can kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully we don't see an unexpected resurgence with some states slowly opening up. Obviously we still have to worry about and prepare for the 2nd wave in the Fall.
The massive spike in hospital visits for ILI/CLI is why I have a hard time believing the idea that Covid has been here since November/December just spreading, and that all the anecdotes from friends who had bad flu symptoms were really dealing with Covid. Because from December-February, there wasn't any social distancing, or limiting of any kind of behavior. NYC was packed to the gills on the subways, platforms, stations, buildings, etc.
I suppose it could be a far more severe mutation of the original strain that caused the hospital spikes.
But if that were the case, would antibodies to the original strain be helpful against a what would have to be far more violent mutation?
Quote:
Based on the National Syndromic Surveillance Program, which is a collaboration among CDC, federal partners, local and state health departments and academic and private sector partners to collect, analyze and share electronic patient encounter data received from multiple healthcare settings. To track trends of potential COVID-19 visits, visits for COVID-19-like illness (CLI) (fever and cough or shortness of breath or difficulty breathing or presence of a coronavirus diagnosis code) and ILI to a subset of emergency departments in 47 states are being monitored.
So it seems like those trends in emergency visits going down is the type of news we were hoping to hear and matches with the projections that were made. It seems like our peak in death totals was around April 15th, and 2k people have died on a daily basis from about April 11th through today. However, since death is a lagging indicator, the death totals are projected to drop over these next few days and below 1k per day on May 1st. After a BRUTAL April, it will be good to see the death totals start to drop on a daily basis (although 500-1k people dying a day isn't exactly a reason to celebrate).
For the first time you can kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully we don't see an unexpected resurgence with some states slowly opening up. Obviously we still have to worry about and prepare for the 2nd wave in the Fall.
The massive spike in hospital visits for ILI/CLI is why I have a hard time believing the idea that Covid has been here since November/December just spreading, and that all the anecdotes from friends who had bad flu symptoms were really dealing with Covid. Because from December-February, there wasn't any social distancing, or limiting of any kind of behavior. NYC was packed to the gills on the subways, platforms, stations, buildings, etc.
I suppose it could be a far more severe mutation of the original strain that caused the hospital spikes.
But if that were the case, would antibodies to the original strain be helpful against a what would have to be far more violent mutation?
A few theories on this:
1. People were not aware of covid or were not worrying about it so people with fevers stayed home and just waited it out. Maybe they went to their personal doctor who told them hey it is just a virus you have to just let it run its course. My kida had 104 fevers for 5 days and the doctor just said it is a virus let it run its course.
2. If someone did go to the hospital they didnt report it to the governor at that time, and plus doctors probably said it was something else. Also why they are reviewing autopsies now.
3. News was not reporting it every single day, it was not something on their radar so you didnt hear about it, so even if there was a spike at the hospital you wouldnt know.
36,000 Missing Deaths:Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis
I agree
Our job is our family. Especially in times like these
I know we're not supposed to get political here, but even the most ardent supporter can't honestly watch that clip and not cringe.
[/quote]
When you make a statement like that, you'd better be prepared for a lot of people to ask you to hold their beers.
Staged Act - ( New Window )
Staged Act - ( New Window )
You tell us. Where’s the media report this supposed to be exposing?
36,000 Missing Deaths:Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis
Thanks for this article. I posted a couple of articles about the UK and Italy a day or two ago on this thread, which detailed a lot of info about "excessive deaths" and how it is the most accurate estimate (for now) of the numerator for the morbidity rate.
Now we just need to start getting solid denominator data from the antibody studies, the first few of which appear highly suspicious (40-80x the known cases have the antibodies ?)
As it relates to the article I posted about Italy, for example, they are not counting deaths in nursing homes or homes, only hospitals. There is a tiny town in Lombardy(?) that has lost 33 people in a nursing home. Very sobering. They expect Italy to have as many as 3x the number of deaths as are currently reported.
How this can end up anything like a second seasonal flu, when this many people have died in barely over a month, seems ludicrous. Though of course it will look much lower of the (asymptomatic) infection rates are really high. The math doesn't lie....but jeez. This is pretty fucking horrible.
Staged Act - ( New Window )
Saw it for the first time now and now that I have I don’t care.
Quote:
Counting "Excess Deaths" accounts for the "people who would have died anyway" theory...
36,000 Missing Deaths:Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis
Thanks for this article. I posted a couple of articles about the UK and Italy a day or two ago on this thread, which detailed a lot of info about "excessive deaths" and how it is the most accurate estimate (for now) of the numerator for the morbidity rate.
Now we just need to start getting solid denominator data from the antibody studies, the first few of which appear highly suspicious (40-80x the known cases have the antibodies ?)
As it relates to the article I posted about Italy, for example, they are not counting deaths in nursing homes or homes, only hospitals. There is a tiny town in Lombardy(?) that has lost 33 people in a nursing home. Very sobering. They expect Italy to have as many as 3x the number of deaths as are currently reported.
How this can end up anything like a second seasonal flu, when this many people have died in barely over a month, seems ludicrous. Though of course it will look much lower of the (asymptomatic) infection rates are really high. The math doesn't lie....but jeez. This is pretty fucking horrible.
Why is the antibody study suspicious when for months now anyone without connections not in a highly at risk group hasn’t been able to get a test? Living in NY I actually Intuitively thought the 21% nyc Metro number was a little low. But it’s what we have now.
We now know this has been around since Late December and is highly contagious - the denominator is laughably understated which makes the Imperial Colleges model completely wrong. It’s a shame but let’s move forward.
Staged Act - ( New Window )
fake crap like this pisses me off. Using this tragedy for political gain.
Staged Act - ( New Window )
Some quick questions
1. Which side staged it? Left, maybe? Right? That is possible as well. The situation seems too perfect. The woman filming it is like, oh look here, what does this car say... Then all of a sudden just in front of that specific car somebody is scrubs comes by with a sign and a photo is taken... A photo I have never seen anywhere. Could have been an attempt to try and discredit the photo of a female health worker standing stone faced in front of a burly flag waving protester in favor of opening up.
2. In any case, I'm not sure it matters much. Aren't all protests "staged"... Isn't that why they say "stage a protest"...
Basically nothing to see here. move along.
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In comment 14882844 .McL. said:
Quote:
Counting "Excess Deaths" accounts for the "people who would have died anyway" theory...
36,000 Missing Deaths:Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis
Thanks for this article. I posted a couple of articles about the UK and Italy a day or two ago on this thread, which detailed a lot of info about "excessive deaths" and how it is the most accurate estimate (for now) of the numerator for the morbidity rate.
Now we just need to start getting solid denominator data from the antibody studies, the first few of which appear highly suspicious (40-80x the known cases have the antibodies ?)
As it relates to the article I posted about Italy, for example, they are not counting deaths in nursing homes or homes, only hospitals. There is a tiny town in Lombardy(?) that has lost 33 people in a nursing home. Very sobering. They expect Italy to have as many as 3x the number of deaths as are currently reported.
How this can end up anything like a second seasonal flu, when this many people have died in barely over a month, seems ludicrous. Though of course it will look much lower of the (asymptomatic) infection rates are really high. The math doesn't lie....but jeez. This is pretty fucking horrible.
Why is the antibody study suspicious when for months now anyone without connections not in a highly at risk group hasn’t been able to get a test? Living in NY I actually Intuitively thought the 21% nyc Metro number was a little low. But it’s what we have now.
We now know this has been around since Late December and is highly contagious - the denominator is laughably understated which makes the Imperial Colleges model completely wrong. It’s a shame but let’s move forward.
The antibody tests are "suspicious" because the results have been all over the map, and some of them have been shown to have a high rate of false positives because they react to other coronaviruses.
I think in time, there will be antibody tests that are more accurate and done on a broader swatch of the population. As I have said many times. Both the numerator and denominator in the equation are in flux.
Quote:
In comment 14884358 Mike in Marin said:
Quote:
In comment 14882844 .McL. said:
Quote:
Counting "Excess Deaths" accounts for the "people who would have died anyway" theory...
36,000 Missing Deaths:Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis
Thanks for this article. I posted a couple of articles about the UK and Italy a day or two ago on this thread, which detailed a lot of info about "excessive deaths" and how it is the most accurate estimate (for now) of the numerator for the morbidity rate.
Now we just need to start getting solid denominator data from the antibody studies, the first few of which appear highly suspicious (40-80x the known cases have the antibodies ?)
As it relates to the article I posted about Italy, for example, they are not counting deaths in nursing homes or homes, only hospitals. There is a tiny town in Lombardy(?) that has lost 33 people in a nursing home. Very sobering. They expect Italy to have as many as 3x the number of deaths as are currently reported.
How this can end up anything like a second seasonal flu, when this many people have died in barely over a month, seems ludicrous. Though of course it will look much lower of the (asymptomatic) infection rates are really high. The math doesn't lie....but jeez. This is pretty fucking horrible.
Why is the antibody study suspicious when for months now anyone without connections not in a highly at risk group hasn’t been able to get a test? Living in NY I actually Intuitively thought the 21% nyc Metro number was a little low. But it’s what we have now.
We now know this has been around since Late December and is highly contagious - the denominator is laughably understated which makes the Imperial Colleges model completely wrong. It’s a shame but let’s move forward.
The antibody tests are "suspicious" because the results have been all over the map, and some of them have been shown to have a high rate of false positives because they react to other coronaviruses.
I think in time, there will be antibody tests that are more accurate and done on a broader swatch of the population. As I have said many times. Both the numerator and denominator in the equation are in flux.
Meant swath not swatch...
Also, I don't want anybody to take it that I am impugning any specific test. Some may be "excellent" as BillL said. I don't know. I'm just regurgitating what i have read.
Let's hope for the best. Many great Americans treating those who have the virus and many brilliant minds finding a cure/vaccine.
Hang in there. This country has been knocked down before.......it will come back.
Quote:
In comment 14884358 Mike in Marin said:
Quote:
In comment 14882844 .McL. said:
Quote:
Counting "Excess Deaths" accounts for the "people who would have died anyway" theory...
36,000 Missing Deaths:Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis
Thanks for this article. I posted a couple of articles about the UK and Italy a day or two ago on this thread, which detailed a lot of info about "excessive deaths" and how it is the most accurate estimate (for now) of the numerator for the morbidity rate.
Now we just need to start getting solid denominator data from the antibody studies, the first few of which appear highly suspicious (40-80x the known cases have the antibodies ?)
As it relates to the article I posted about Italy, for example, they are not counting deaths in nursing homes or homes, only hospitals. There is a tiny town in Lombardy(?) that has lost 33 people in a nursing home. Very sobering. They expect Italy to have as many as 3x the number of deaths as are currently reported.
How this can end up anything like a second seasonal flu, when this many people have died in barely over a month, seems ludicrous. Though of course it will look much lower of the (asymptomatic) infection rates are really high. The math doesn't lie....but jeez. This is pretty fucking horrible.
Why is the antibody study suspicious when for months now anyone without connections not in a highly at risk group hasn’t been able to get a test? Living in NY I actually Intuitively thought the 21% nyc Metro number was a little low. But it’s what we have now.
We now know this has been around since Late December and is highly contagious - the denominator is laughably understated which makes the Imperial Colleges model completely wrong. It’s a shame but let’s move forward.
The antibody tests are "suspicious" because the results have been all over the map, and some of them have been shown to have a high rate of false positives because they react to other coronaviruses.
I think in time, there will be antibody tests that are more accurate and done on a broader swatch of the population. As I have said many times. Both the numerator and denominator in the equation are in flux.
You’re only speaking about the rapid tests that are flooding the market.
The lab tests actually have reasonable specificity. Some of them, including the one used to do the recent and ongoing grocery store sampling in NY (the one that showed the 21% positivity (only the first third of the results) actually has outstanding specificity.
I worry most about the Nursing Homes and those receiving Home Care. Do you see where agencies can provide self tests for every time they go on a shift?
Or someone getting a haircut can test themselves and the barber/stylist?
Seems like down the future but is sure would help.
Quote:
A staged scene of a health care work heroically blocking the SUV of a flag-waging Trump supporter going out. Is this itself fake?
Staged Act - ( New Window )
fake crap like this pisses me off. Using this tragedy for political gain.
I worry most about the Nursing Homes and those receiving Home Care. Do you see where agencies can provide self tests for every time they go on a shift?
Or someone getting a haircut can test themselves and the barber/stylist?
Seems like down the future but is sure would help.
What a tough question.
I think that we will see some decent rapid tests..really called point of care tests (POCT). I’ve seen a couple myself but can’t say what the are yet.
The real question is what does it mean to say you test positive for antibodies. I think, and it’s only a guess at this point, is that all you can say is that you have antibodies.
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You seem to be on top of things and thanks for that. Do you think we can get to a test that is both fast and economical?
I worry most about the Nursing Homes and those receiving Home Care. Do you see where agencies can provide self tests for every time they go on a shift?
Or someone getting a haircut can test themselves and the barber/stylist?
Seems like down the future but is sure would help.
What a tough question.
I think that we will see some decent rapid tests..really called point of care tests (POCT). I’ve seen a couple myself but can’t say what the are yet.
The real question is what does it mean to say you test positive for antibodies. I think, and it’s only a guess at this point, is that all you can say is that you have antibodies.
Yes a tough one no doubt. The VA in Long Island lost many vets and I am sure there are similar tragedies across the country. It seems the best course is to test workers every shift before going in and extend to Home Care personal serving our most vulnerable. Difficult but I hope we can find a answer. This would enable other businesses to open as well.
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In comment 14886723 Lines of Scrimmage said:
Quote:
You seem to be on top of things and thanks for that. Do you think we can get to a test that is both fast and economical?
I worry most about the Nursing Homes and those receiving Home Care. Do you see where agencies can provide self tests for every time they go on a shift?
Or someone getting a haircut can test themselves and the barber/stylist?
Seems like down the future but is sure would help.
What a tough question.
I think that we will see some decent rapid tests..really called point of care tests (POCT). I’ve seen a couple myself but can’t say what the are yet.
The real question is what does it mean to say you test positive for antibodies. I think, and it’s only a guess at this point, is that all you can say is that you have antibodies.
Yes a tough one no doubt. The VA in Long Island lost many vets and I am sure there are similar tragedies across the country. It seems the best course is to test workers every shift before going in and extend to Home Care personal serving our most vulnerable. Difficult but I hope we can find a answer. This would enable other businesses to open as well.
At my work they do a fever check when you walk in the building. If you fail, they won’t let you in. I think that’s the best you can do.
We do need a better way to monitor this. It is established our most vulnerable are most are risk...we need a better plan imo.
People in the know tried cautioning from the beginning that accurate testing is not something you snap your fingers and it magically appears. That isn't something the masses want to hear. For them, any testing is good, and any failure to go from zero to 60 instantly is a massive fuck up. Taking the time to produce a reliable test is under appreciated.
So, the gov't let a multitude of providers come up with tests, and now we have growing capacity of varying quality, making it difficult to assess the data being gathered across a wide geography.
It doesn't help that the media daily promised us rapid testing, in home testing, hey the rest of the world is testing but we're not.
Speaking of testing, I see pharmacies are going to be allowed to administer tests. The same masses that have a difficulty understanding social distancing are going to be bursting through the front doors of CVS/Rite Aid looking to see if that cough they have is covid. I know that's not the procedure, but I'm not a covidiot who needs to be warned not to drink chlorox. Maybe it's an irrational fear of mine, but I don't like the idea of intentionally bringing a contagious virus anywhere near the public's medical supplies or the folks who work with them.
Testing and social distancing are no panacea and probably more theatrical than we’d care to know. Still, best known procedures and practices enabled by testing, tracing and treatment are all we can hope for while waiting for a vaccine. And a vaccine isn’t likely to appear anytime before the next 12 to 18 months end. This is long slog. If this were a baseball game I’d say we’re in the top of the second inning with two outs. We’ll take our hacks in the bottom of this inning, but things will continue to get worse as virus is unstoppable and the policy mistakes compound and manifest and collapse of the global economy continues.
We need to reopen and make adjustments on the fly. Immediately and without delay we need to get people back to work. Mistakes will be made, there is no good plan for reopening, just less bad ones. Many more will die and no one should expect to escape the dire consequences of this epochal pandemic. There is no mercy on the horizon for healthcare workers and our beleaguered and broken healthcare model. But we need to end this lockdown and that probably requires more people to understand that avoiding exposure to the virus is nearly, if not entirely, impossible.
I think in the end we’ll wish we went to the Swedish model from the outset. Locking everyone in and closing the economy was almost certainly a mistake. It’s an understandable mistake and it would have taken extraordinary leadership to give the Swedish model a go here in a country so much larger and so substantially different than Sweden. (But no, this isn’t purely Monday morning QB’ing as some suggested at the outside that we protect the most vulnerable only). I think in retrospect we’ll posit that our course of action did much more harm than good. Would’a could’a shoud’a and if my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle. Yeah, I know. But when you’re in a hole, first thing to do is put the shovel down and stop digging.
The good news is that we are much more capable of hardship and suffering and goodness and innovation than most of us know. We haven’t really been tested in a long time, many of us never at all. But we will adapt and endure and eventually get to place where we can pause and look back on all this and say, that sucked, hopefully never again, but it’s over now. Until then, we need to get back to work.
Do you honestly think the American public would have the patience and discipline to do this?
Do you believe large American companies would voluntarily take steps to make this possible in the workplace?
Quote:
I think in the end we’ll wish we went to the Swedish model from the outset.
Do you honestly think the American public would have the patience and discipline to do this?
Do you believe large American companies would voluntarily take steps to make this possible in the workplace?
As I wrote, almost certainly, no. But since you ask, it may have been more possible than we now assume. There was resistance to social distancing from the outset and there has been resistance throughout. A regional shutdown for the NY metro area might have been possible. But, also as I’ve written and said all along, I think the policy to shut down is understandable.
I’m far less understanding of the federal legislation which is a bipartisan abject failure. Why, for instance, single out the airlines industry for such a breathtakingly large cash transfer? The airlines, I promise you, are fucked for certain. No one will be traveling by air for any number of obvious reasons for a long while. The airlines are heavily subsidized and historically troubled businesses. They are getting through this without massive restructuring and failure and giving them 25 billion dollars was a misappropriation and analogous to throwing tax payer money on to a fire.
Painting with a broad brush, IMO, we're a society that is lacking in the notion of self responsibility.
Some people think society will change and be more self aware of personal fiscal and social responsibility. I think the crisis is increasing people's reliance on gov't and expectation of gov't protection and dole out. The take away won't be "I didn't do enough", it'll be "gov't kept things going, but didn't do enough". We'll continue heading toward a nanny state while shirking personal responsibility.
I think in the end we’ll wish we went to the Swedish model from the outset.
Are you saying social distancing and testing is being overblown and not of paramount importance?
If we did the Swedish model from the outset, do you think we'd have more deaths or less?
I can't imagine the death toll we'd have if we didn't.........
I'm not sure why, but it seems that COVID-19 is just not that prevalant in that area.
I think using that model would have been devestating on our country.
Quote:
Testing and social distancing are no panacea and probably more theatrical than we’d care to know.
I think in the end we’ll wish we went to the Swedish model from the outset.
Are you saying social distancing and testing is being overblown and not of paramount importance?
If we did the Swedish model from the outset, do you think we'd have more deaths or less?
I can't imagine the death toll we'd have if we didn't.........
I’m saying that the time to focus on containment is well past and now we need to move forward with mitigation. Restriction should be replaced with suggested best practices and augmentation of mitigation tools. These tools would be reinforcement of the healthcare system, highly available testing for infection and antibodies and voluntary opt tracing.
Highly vulnerable population should be identified and well informed and encouraged to remain highly sequestered and observant of social distancing best practices.
Some measure of public policy enforcement is necessary. Here I suggest that public transportation access should include fever screening and maybe even fast passes for anyone who’s test negative (within some period of time I suppose) or antibody immunity (and we need further medical and scientific guidance here).
Now is not the time for what should have been done. But overall, I recommend we now move to the Swedish model as quickly as possible.
I think we should restrict air travel within the country to only those that have demonstrated and some sort of certifiable covid free test result within two weeks, fever screen at the gate and there should be sort of fast track for immunity based on antibody testing. Similar to the TSA PRE program. There are challenges with setting up these gates and checks and mechanisms, obviously. So let’s not waste time with all the other containment strategies and get moving on to mitigation.
Great news - the plasma sounds promising and so does the Remdesivir. A few options like that are probably going to be our best chance to get back to semi-normal pre-vaccine (along with ramping up testing).
And to the idea of just going with the sweden model, that would seem imprudent. We essentially saw what 1 month looks like without any significant containment in the full month prior (March 15-April 15) and it was about 40k deaths. Any relaxation of containment likely goes beyond that because the growth rate will go back above exponential increase (even if it's slower than it was spreading in February unmitigated, the numbers will be higher now because of how many people would get it).
Just in the last 3 days while we were watching the draft more than 5k people died (including 2200 just yesterday). There is no easy answer unless we are willing to accept that many dead (or more) per day until there's a viable treatment or vaccine. Lockdown bought us about 40 days so far and while things are getting closer but we aren't even where we need to be with testing yet.
Obviously there will be some acceleration in cases once anything opens but that's why testing/tracing capacity needs to ramp up because the worst thing that would happen is having another real big spike because we can't contain whatever acceleration happens.
I doubt people were within 6 feet of people they don’t know. Even on a packed NJ beach pre corona, people still gave each other at least that much space.
Obviously there will be some acceleration in cases once anything opens but that's why testing/tracing capacity needs to ramp up because the worst thing that would happen is having another real big spike because we can't contain whatever acceleration happens.
Smartest way to do it, i said this a couple of weeks ago, open the less risky first, then go from there, if we get a big spike it is easier to slow the build back...
Let everyone back to soon you cant revert back as easily..
Questions have been asked as to the efficacy of a number of orders: initial business closures, non-essential business closures, education facility closures, bans on mass gatherings, and shelter in place. All outcomes are per 100,000 population. All interpretations are for each day a state waited to enact the policy, relative to the earliest adopter.
Deaths:
Initial business closures associated with 9.5% more COVID-19 deaths.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 deaths.
Education facility closures associated with 57.4% more COVID-19 deaths.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 14.8% more COVID-19 deaths.
Shelter-in-place associated with 27.8% fewer COVID-19 deaths.
Interpretation: the quicker you responded, the better shape you are in now, but that sheltering-in-place is largely ineffective (people are violating).
Hospitalizations:
Initial business closures associated with 23.8% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Non-essential business closures associated with 0.85% fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Education facility closures associated with 60.6% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 2.0% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Shelter-in-place associated with 13.0% fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Interpretation: people are probably still going out; essential or non-essential does not really matter.
Confirmed cases:
Initial business closures associated with 2.2% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Education facility closures associated with 21.5% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 5.8% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Shelter-in-place associated with 4.8% fewer COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Interpretation: shelter-in-place again failing.
What does this suggest? People really aren't sheltering in place, because there's limited enforcement mechanisms. Closing non-essential business is of limited impact, not because it is ineffective, but because of the fact that people are still going out (and wide interpretation on what a non-essential business is).
However, an even more important factor: only about 30-40% of depressed economic activity would be caused by government policies; the rest are a result of reduced demand domestically and globally based on the virus, which likely will not recover just because we re-opened.
[quote][/quote]
Interesting. Thank you.
Handshakes
High five / slapped hands
Food-store samples
TP-ing houses
Sharing drinks in a bar
Lines
Knocking bottoms of beer bottles
Manned tollbooths
Mosh pits / floor seats
Rugby, wrestling, boxing
Link - ( New Window )
Sorry to read this. Hope it all works out ok. Keep us posted.
Questions have been asked as to the efficacy of a number of orders: initial business closures, non-essential business closures, education facility closures, bans on mass gatherings, and shelter in place. All outcomes are per 100,000 population. All interpretations are for each day a state waited to enact the policy, relative to the earliest adopter.
Deaths:
Initial business closures associated with 9.5% more COVID-19 deaths.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 deaths.
Education facility closures associated with 57.4% more COVID-19 deaths.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 14.8% more COVID-19 deaths.
Shelter-in-place associated with 27.8% fewer COVID-19 deaths.
Interpretation: the quicker you responded, the better shape you are in now, but that sheltering-in-place is largely ineffective (people are violating).
Hospitalizations:
Initial business closures associated with 23.8% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Non-essential business closures associated with 0.85% fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Education facility closures associated with 60.6% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 2.0% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Shelter-in-place associated with 13.0% fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Interpretation: people are probably still going out; essential or non-essential does not really matter.
Confirmed cases:
Initial business closures associated with 2.2% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Education facility closures associated with 21.5% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 5.8% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Shelter-in-place associated with 4.8% fewer COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Interpretation: shelter-in-place again failing.
What does this suggest? People really aren't sheltering in place, because there's limited enforcement mechanisms. Closing non-essential business is of limited impact, not because it is ineffective, but because of the fact that people are still going out (and wide interpretation on what a non-essential business is).
However, an even more important factor: only about 30-40% of depressed economic activity would be caused by government policies; the rest are a result of reduced demand domestically and globally based on the virus, which likely will not recover just because we re-opened.
Seems that the unstated assumptions in the "interpretations" is that the business closures and shelter in place orders by their very nature are effective absent widespread disobedience. Your numbers seem to point in the direction that this is a debatable assumption.
Handshakes
High five / slapped hands
Food-store samples
TP-ing houses
Sharing drinks in a bar
Lines
Knocking bottoms of beer bottles
Manned tollbooths
Mosh pits / floor seats
Rugby, wrestling, boxing Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
A staged scene of a health care work heroically blocking the SUV of a flag-waging Trump supporter going out. Is this itself fake?
Staged Act - ( New Window )
fake crap like this pisses me off. Using this tragedy for political gain.
MASSIVE eye roll.
I'm hearing that the wearing of masks may become required in some areas. As a permanent directive. That some public buildings and airports will have temperature screening devices and anyone with an elevated temperature will be sent home.
Guess what? You can have COVID and not set off any detection if you are asymptomatic, but if you have the common cold - turn around and go home.
We are going to change society completely using measures that will likely not make much of an impact in preventing the spread of COVID and doing little to protect from the next think we will react to.
Its like the micro-chipping rumors, not fucking happening.
My general concern is that in the past, we've overreacted to certain things that really do little to mitigate the problem and no little to nothing to prevent the next thing.
It's like scanning shoes at the airport because of the shoe bomber.
I can just imagine getting ready to go on vacation and getting turned away because I cough at the security checkpoint or because I was sunburned the day prior elevating my temperature on a screener
Just isn't feasible and makes little sense anyway since you won't be able to enforce it everywhere.
Its like the micro-chipping rumors, not fucking happening.
The micro-chipping rumors are insane conspiracy theories from these loonies at their "protests". The other things, you're right, are strategies that are being discussed as possible ways of dealing with reopening...
Questions have been asked as to the efficacy of a number of orders: initial business closures, non-essential business closures, education facility closures, bans on mass gatherings, and shelter in place. All outcomes are per 100,000 population. All interpretations are for each day a state waited to enact the policy, relative to the earliest adopter.
Deaths:
Initial business closures associated with 9.5% more COVID-19 deaths.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 deaths.
Education facility closures associated with 57.4% more COVID-19 deaths.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 14.8% more COVID-19 deaths.
Shelter-in-place associated with 27.8% fewer COVID-19 deaths.
Interpretation: the quicker you responded, the better shape you are in now, but that sheltering-in-place is largely ineffective (people are violating).
Hospitalizations:
Initial business closures associated with 23.8% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Non-essential business closures associated with 0.85% fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Education facility closures associated with 60.6% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 2.0% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Shelter-in-place associated with 13.0% fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Interpretation: people are probably still going out; essential or non-essential does not really matter.
Confirmed cases:
Initial business closures associated with 2.2% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Education facility closures associated with 21.5% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 5.8% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Shelter-in-place associated with 4.8% fewer COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Interpretation: shelter-in-place again failing.
What does this suggest? People really aren't sheltering in place, because there's limited enforcement mechanisms. Closing non-essential business is of limited impact, not because it is ineffective, but because of the fact that people are still going out (and wide interpretation on what a non-essential business is).
However, an even more important factor: only about 30-40% of depressed economic activity would be caused by government policies; the rest are a result of reduced demand domestically and globally based on the virus, which likely will not recover just because we re-opened.
As a teacher and a father of young children, these numbers jump off the screen at me.
Quote:
I have been collecting daily data on COVID-19 outcomes, as part of my charge on the regional COVID-19 response taskforce for some of the economic policies being implemented.
Questions have been asked as to the efficacy of a number of orders: initial business closures, non-essential business closures, education facility closures, bans on mass gatherings, and shelter in place. All outcomes are per 100,000 population. All interpretations are for each day a state waited to enact the policy, relative to the earliest adopter.
Deaths:
Initial business closures associated with 9.5% more COVID-19 deaths.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 deaths.
Education facility closures associated with 57.4% more COVID-19 deaths.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 14.8% more COVID-19 deaths.
Shelter-in-place associated with 27.8% fewer COVID-19 deaths.
Interpretation: the quicker you responded, the better shape you are in now, but that sheltering-in-place is largely ineffective (people are violating).
Hospitalizations:
Initial business closures associated with 23.8% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Non-essential business closures associated with 0.85% fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Education facility closures associated with 60.6% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 2.0% more COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Shelter-in-place associated with 13.0% fewer COVID-19 hospitalizations.
Interpretation: people are probably still going out; essential or non-essential does not really matter.
Confirmed cases:
Initial business closures associated with 2.2% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Education facility closures associated with 21.5% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 5.8% more COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Shelter-in-place associated with 4.8% fewer COVID-19 confirmed cases.
Interpretation: shelter-in-place again failing.
What does this suggest? People really aren't sheltering in place, because there's limited enforcement mechanisms. Closing non-essential business is of limited impact, not because it is ineffective, but because of the fact that people are still going out (and wide interpretation on what a non-essential business is).
However, an even more important factor: only about 30-40% of depressed economic activity would be caused by government policies; the rest are a result of reduced demand domestically and globally based on the virus, which likely will not recover just because we re-opened.
As a teacher and a father of young children, these numbers jump off the screen at me.
Thanks kicker, good stuff. From those numbers it appears closing schools was the most effective measure taken so I see school closures continuing longer than other measures
One would hope something like temperature screening would then be backed up by quick result testing. I'm guessing by the time this is over, we'll have such a thing.
Quote:
are simply ideas being discussed and not actually feasible. They are all trying to bide time until the vaccine (and definitive treatment) or good to go.
Its like the micro-chipping rumors, not fucking happening.
The micro-chipping rumors are insane conspiracy theories from these loonies at their "protests". The other things, you're right, are strategies that are being discussed as possible ways of dealing with reopening...
I work with a flat-earther. His instagram posts have been absolutely crazy. Basically wants Bill Gates dead - thinks the Government is out to chip us all and control our every move.
3m total infections in NY
.75 mortality rate
@NYGovCuomo
NEW: Preliminary results from our statewide antibody survey suggest that 14.9% of the state is positive for the COVID-19 antibody.
These results are drawn from an expanded sample size of about 7,500.
I presume the rate disparity of NYC and upstate also continues. Seems to me I saw rates of 21% for NYC and 4 percent in upstate. I believe NYS has 3 hotspots: NYC is the BIG hotspot and pretty much should be considered a separate entity in virus statistics; Rochester/Buffalo area was heating up a week or two ago; Albany area is, I think, low-moderate in infection, but they're claiming it's not under control in terms of peak. Everywhere else is fairly low. Point being that stats for NYC probably shouldn't be averaged in state stats. They aren't really relevant for Cooperstown (for example).
Up to now, a lot about this virus is viewed through the paradigm that it is another respiratory illness like flu or its Coronavirus cousins.
As it now has spread worldwide, and is being observed and treated up close and personal outside of China, more is being observed about how this thing attacks the body. It seems to impact the blood, it seems to cause lower immune count in some, create overactive and dangerous immune responses in others. The range of symptoms is wide.
This thing should be viewed as a new entity, not through the paradigm of just flu or respiratory complications. Hopefully, this will lead to improved medicines and treatment protocols.
Science still does not have all the answers about this virus.
The patient’s chart appeared unremarkable at first glance. He took no medications and had no history of chronic conditions. He had been feeling fine, hanging out at home during the lockdown like the rest of the country, when suddenly, he had trouble talking and moving the right side of his body. Imaging showed a large blockage on the left side of his head. Oxley gasped when he got to the patient’s age and covid-19 status: 44, positive.
The man was among several recent stroke patients in their 30s to 40s who were all infected with the coronavirus. The median age for that type of severe stroke is 74.
But the patient’s age wasn’t the only abnormality of the case:
As Oxley, an interventional neurologist, began the procedure to remove the clot, he observed something he had never seen before. On the monitors, the brain typically shows up as a tangle of black squiggles — “like a can of spaghetti,” he said — that provide a map of blood vessels. A clot shows up as a blank spot. As he used a needlelike device to pull out the clot, he saw new clots forming in real-time around it.
“This is crazy,” he remembers telling his boss.
These strokes, several doctors who spoke to the Post theorized, could explain the high number of patients dying at home — four times the usual rate in New York, many or most of them, perhaps, dying quite suddenly. According to the Brigham and Women’s guidelines, only 53 percent of COVID-19 patients have died from respiratory failure alone.
This thing sure is not just a bad flu, that error in thinking has already cost so much and perhaps an expanded view of virus impact on the body is needed as well.
Novel New Unkown - ( New Window )
Exactly how has that "error in thinking" cost us anything? Would things be different if from the onset this was regarded as like nothing else prior, because that's how scientists approach new diseases. They rule out what it isn't, try to determine what it is, in order to treat it.
I'm not sure how different things would be if we knew this had different side effects and had a high rate of asymptomatic infection.
Quote:
This thing sure is not just a bad flu, that error in thinking has already cost so much and perhaps an expanded view of virus impact on the body is needed as well.
Exactly how has that "error in thinking" cost us anything? Would things be different if from the onset this was regarded as like nothing else prior, because that's how scientists approach new diseases. They rule out what it isn't, try to determine what it is, in order to treat it.
I'm not sure how different things would be if we knew this had different side effects and had a high rate of asymptomatic infection.
WJS has an OP-ED in yesterday's edition that I'd love to read, but I don't have a subscription. The headline:
Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No
The speed with which officials shuttered the economy appears not to be a factor in Covid deaths.
Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No
The speed with which officials shuttered the economy appears not to be a factor in Covid deaths.
In general, though, policies did reduce death rates. Not all of them worked equally as well, and some so far haven’t.
People in the know tried cautioning from the beginning that accurate testing is not something you snap your fingers and it magically appears. That isn't something the masses want to hear. For them, any testing is good, and any failure to go from zero to 60 instantly is a massive fuck up. Taking the time to produce a reliable test is under appreciated.
So, the gov't let a multitude of providers come up with tests, and now we have growing capacity of varying quality, making it difficult to assess the data being gathered across a wide geography.
It doesn't help that the media daily promised us rapid testing, in home testing, hey the rest of the world is testing but we're not.
Speaking of testing, I see pharmacies are going to be allowed to administer tests. The same masses that have a difficulty understanding social distancing are going to be bursting through the front doors of CVS/Rite Aid looking to see if that cough they have is covid. I know that's not the procedure, but I'm not a covidiot who needs to be warned not to drink chlorox. Maybe it's an irrational fear of mine, but I don't like the idea of intentionally bringing a contagious virus anywhere near the public's medical supplies or the folks who work with them.
Agreed fkap
Probably some small things that aren't measurable (hand-shaking, mask wearing, washing hands).
But, to say that the policy is not meaningful isn't precisely true either; cell phone data has shown that people have reduced traditional movement patterns by ~40% in some places, so it's likely there is some minimal impact.
I'd also argue the other policies.
don't know can't read the article.
but I imagine the premise is herd immunity/antibody build up or something like that. Similar to other viruses. Here is a link in case anyone has a WSJ subscription and cares to summarize.
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No
The speed with which officials shuttered the economy appears not to be a factor in Covid deaths.
The article did not say much. The gist of it is summed up in this one paragraph:
"No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York. This wide variation means that other variables—like population density or subway use—were more important. Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%."
Quote:
This thing sure is not just a bad flu, that error in thinking has already cost so much and perhaps an expanded view of virus impact on the body is needed as well.
Exactly how has that "error in thinking" cost us anything? Would things be different if from the onset this was regarded as like nothing else prior, because that's how scientists approach new diseases. They rule out what it isn't, try to determine what it is, in order to treat it.
I'm not sure how different things would be if we knew this had different side effects and had a high rate of asymptomatic infection.
Yeah, I mixed two issues in a sense. Of course science has to gain data and first hand knowledge to learn more. The initial errors to me was the failure to treat the virus as a viable threat to the USA. This was continued too long because there was no testing/screening done to identify the fact that there was community spread in the US. Which we now know was happening much earlier.
In my opinion a big part of why this happened is because it was easy for decision makers to brush off the threat as a problem that was far away, or not much more than a bad flu etc. This line of thinking was very popular even within two months ago. Even when it spread out to Iran and Italy from China.
If the more common thought was that this is a whole new ball game, one that caused China to lock down, shut down their economy and posed a real threat, perhaps more would have been done to screen and ID the earliest spread.
Maybe not, but I still think this was a costly error, particularly for NYC metropolitan area and one that could have been avoided. It was a combination of hubris and ignorance that caused it.
There is another recent article in the New Yorker comparing the response on the west coast to that in NYS. I found that very informative as well, it mentioned something called "sentinel surveillance" where swabs from people with symptoms who were negative for flu cold be sent away and analyzed for corona. This could have ID'd community spread in NYC much earlier then it was. The City put the kabosh on this in late Feb according to the article.
Although the article outlines reasons why this type of testing was not done, I think a major reason is because those making decisions are were, up until people coming in high numbers very sick to hospitals, operating under the paradigm that this was just a bad flu.
It is not, it is something never seen before on the Earth whose true long term ramifications are still unknown.
Yeah seriously. Blaming this on the media is absurd.
Quote:
Certain people did promise rapid testing, and those promises were reported on in the media.
Yeah seriously. Blaming this on the media is absurd.
That's like blaming Jordan Ranaan for Nate Solder missing a block.
Quote:
the op-ed is WSJ obviously (not WJS - whatever that is).
Quote:
Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No
The speed with which officials shuttered the economy appears not to be a factor in Covid deaths.
The article did not say much. The gist of it is summed up in this one paragraph:
"No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York. This wide variation means that other variables—like population density or subway use—were more important. Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%."
Thank you, appreciate the summary.
Quote:
In comment 14888991 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
the op-ed is WSJ obviously (not WJS - whatever that is).
Quote:
Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No
The speed with which officials shuttered the economy appears not to be a factor in Covid deaths.
The article did not say much. The gist of it is summed up in this one paragraph:
"No conclusions can be drawn about the states that sheltered quickly, because their death rates ran the full gamut, from 20 per million in Oregon to 360 in New York. This wide variation means that other variables—like population density or subway use—were more important. Our correlation coefficient for per-capita death rates vs. the population density was 44%."
Thank you, appreciate the summary.
No problem. It went on to talk a little about Swedens non sheltering approach and points out that they are middle of the pack of European countries (also inconclusive).
You didn't miss much pjacs.
You can safely ignore the WSJ article...
Deaths:
Initial business closures associated with 9.5% more COVID-19 deaths.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 deaths.
Education facility closures associated with 57.4% more COVID-19 deaths.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 14.8% more COVID-19 deaths.
Shelter-in-place associated with 27.8% fewer COVID-19 deaths.
So, a clarification, please. Are you saying that each day the state waited to implement Shelter In Place, it resulted in fewer deaths?
Quote:
All outcomes are per 100,000 population. All interpretations are for each day a state waited to enact the policy, relative to the earliest adopter.
Deaths:
Initial business closures associated with 9.5% more COVID-19 deaths.
Non-essential business closures associated with 4.7% more COVID-19 deaths.
Education facility closures associated with 57.4% more COVID-19 deaths.
Bans on mass gatherings associated with 14.8% more COVID-19 deaths.
Shelter-in-place associated with 27.8% fewer COVID-19 deaths.
So, a clarification, please. Are you saying that each day the state waited to implement Shelter In Place, it resulted in fewer deaths?
Yes; it was ineffective. Or, in other words, it didn't cause deaths, but it didn't prevent them.
The interpretation is relative to states who have not yet implemented the policies. So, shelter in place, without draconian enforcement policies, are unlikely to be fully effective.
It would seem to me that NYC is the best example of the policies working because it broke the curve of our worst hot spot pretty severely - just as happened in Italy, and basically everywhere else in the world. If there's another theory as to how the curve broke in NYC (other than hand washing and cloth masks which they still claim to do little to protect you from contracting the infection) that would be one thing but otherwise that seems pretty intellectually dishonest of an opinion article to suggest things wouldn't have been worse without the order (or maybe even better).
Interesting - I've seen delays and a lot of "updated guidance" about the seriousness of perjury (with trigger dates to return money in good faith) but nothing else beyond that.
It would seem to me that NYC is the best example of the policies working because it broke the curve of our worst hot spot pretty severely - just as happened in Italy, and basically everywhere else in the world. If there's another theory as to how the curve broke in NYC (other than hand washing and cloth masks which they still claim to do little to protect you from contracting the infection) that would be one thing but otherwise that seems pretty intellectually dishonest of an opinion article to suggest things wouldn't have been worse without the order (or maybe even better).
So, if you eliminate NY from the sample, the results still hold (though the shelter in place is "smaller" in magnitude).
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The flu like symptom surveillance tracking showed hospitalizations starting to climb steeply above normal more than 2 weeks prior to shutdown. So yes they were an early state to close by date, but they were not an early state to close in terms of how prevalent it was circulating. From the anti-body testing NY has a 4x-8x higher percentage of population infection than CA even though both closed down at almost the same time.
It would seem to me that NYC is the best example of the policies working because it broke the curve of our worst hot spot pretty severely - just as happened in Italy, and basically everywhere else in the world. If there's another theory as to how the curve broke in NYC (other than hand washing and cloth masks which they still claim to do little to protect you from contracting the infection) that would be one thing but otherwise that seems pretty intellectually dishonest of an opinion article to suggest things wouldn't have been worse without the order (or maybe even better).
So, if you eliminate NY from the sample, the results still hold (though the shelter in place is "smaller" in magnitude).
Interesting - is there any good way to go backwards to model "arrival" so you can plot the comparative timelines a little more apples to apples? I.e. Day 30 vs. Day 30 (on whatever different days those fell in different places).
The likeliest explanation that we have been able to come up with is population densities and movement trends.
Technical Issues? They should use Florida as a guide. They shut down the UI Claims website Friday. Can't have technical issues if there is no tech.
I'm kidding obviously, but it seems like people are just flying blind in terms of #s, symptoms, & everything.
I'm glad I've checked out mostly news wise. It's way too depressing. I get my bare minimum & that's it.
Testing everyone is not only not feasible, it is unreliable. And it doesn't have much of an impact for the vast majority of people who are asymptomatic and sheltering in place
But it will be very important to know who has the antibodies and who doesn't going forward.
The government of the US was touting on a daily basis the testing capacity and ability. That there would be 5 million in early March. 27 million by the end of March. That rapid testing would be everywhere. Was the media not supposed to repeat it?
To date fewer than 6 million tests have been done.
Testing everyone is not only not feasible, it is unreliable. And it doesn't have much of an impact for the vast majority of people who are asymptomatic and sheltering in place
But it will be very important to know who has the antibodies and who doesn't going forward.
I could be wrong, but I get the feeling that it will be more fun to know who has antibodies and who doesn’t going forward, than important or even useful. At least in the near term.
1) Antibody testing will tell you who has had the disease. It will help in understanding how serious the public health threat is moving forward. It will help identify people who can donate antibody rich plasma. Etc. It would help you stop the spread since by definition, you are find out about it after the fact.
2) Diagnostic testing can help slow the spread, but not just testing by itself. You need to combine it with aggressive contact tracing, and isolation. It's the same argument about the South Korea model. You can argue that we are not South Korea, we have larger more porous borders, we demand freedom, yada yada yada... No matter what argument you want to make about the difference between the US and SK, aggressive testing, contact tracing and isolation are weapons we can use to slow the spread. Even if it only turns the spread down a little, every little bit helps. The fact is that numerous places around the globe have been successful in managing the spread using testing, contact tracing and isolation as their primary tool. It does work, and it has far less impact on the economy than sheltering in place. For it to work, you need to be able to test a much higher percentage of the population than we are testing now.
Wouldn’t leave my house to attend, even if one of my kids was throwing their hat in the air.
I get that testing is an important tool in understanding the virus, but folks are acting like it will magically stop the pandemic in its tracks.
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having to return to West Point?
Wouldn’t leave my house to attend, even if one of my kids was throwing their hat in the air.
Yeah. I hope the family of L are all well.
Period.
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In comment 14889641 Del Shofner said:
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having to return to West Point?
Wouldn’t leave my house to attend, even if one of my kids was throwing their hat in the air.
Yeah. I hope the family of L are all well.
Period.
I should amend this to end with...
“If it’s a reliable test”.
I get that testing is an important tool in understanding the virus, but folks are acting like it will magically stop the pandemic in its tracks.
Exactly nobody is acting like that. But okay...
I get that testing is an important tool in understanding the virus, but folks are acting like it will magically stop the pandemic in its tracks.
It won’t stop the pandemic but it will make living with it, as a society, a lot easier.
This buys time until a vaccine is available because many viruses mutate over time and being immune today doesn't guarantee immunity 6 months or 9 months or a 1 year from now. That is why a vaccine is critical (even though it may be like a flu vaccine whose efficacy fluctuates year to year).
So, that is why people emphasizing more tests, to give better gauges of the current state, and to understand the individual and societal risks or lightening restrictions.
At least as I understand it.
Is this part of why(?)
But, the bottom line for me at least is that we need to move past any notion of containment. We need to open the economy back up right away.
I don’t know why it’s so fucking hard to draft something that takes these into consideration. It wasn’t that hard of an unintended consequence to determine...
I don’t know why it’s so fucking hard to draft something that takes these into consideration. It wasn’t that hard of an unintended consequence to determine...
I think in the rush they literally just chalked everything up to preferring generosity/speed to being overly stringent, not paying attention to the fact that the money would run out.
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is shitting the bed, largely from technical issues...
Is this part of why(?)
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Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said all loans of more than $2 million or more in a government relief program for small businesses will be audited to ensure they were justified.
No, it seems technical issues again:
'The second round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funding was an instant replay of the first, as the loan network collapsed from the tsunami of applications from small businesses desperate for relief.'
And it’s not like this is an unanticipated reaction; based on the UI numbers, every legislator in that building should have recognized how many small businesses (~30.2 million at last count) could apply for this, and that many bank at relatively small banks.
Link - ( New Window )
you left out some key words. Couldn't or DID NOT SEEK TO
And nowhere does it mention 2/3 who wanted to get tested but couldn't.
and it's not 93% of Americans, it's 93% of the 10% who responded they *think* they had COVID-19.
The findings point to the difficulties people have had getting tested and in providing public health officials with data about its prevalence in the U.S.
“The survey demonstrates the need to ramp up diagnostic testing, along with antibody testing, to fully understand the scope of the disease,” says John Whyte, MD, WebMD’s chief medical officer.
Among readers who didn’t get the test:
39% said they didn’t meet the testing criteria.
28% said they didn’t think they needed one.
25% said testing wasn’t available in their area.
16% said they were concerned about going to a clinic.
The WebMD reader poll, which ran April 20-21, asked more than 6,300 visitors to the site about their symptoms and experiences with COVID-19 testing.....
I'd love to know if I had it. But my knowing, and the authorities knowing it won't make one bit of difference in policy. They already have a pretty good idea of the extent of the virus in my area, and can continue to refine that idea through partial random testing, which is being done.
The ultimate stat is number of hospitalizations, which is not going to change just because more people with symptoms get tested.
More testing is good because it provides more data points for the modeling, making that more accurate, but you don't need 100% of the people tested to get good modeling.
Any quantifiable indicators that can be attributed to their reopening likely won't be evident for 2 weeks.
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will be very telling and probably will sway whst the tri state area does..
Any quantifiable indicators that can be attributed to their reopening likely won't be evident for 2 weeks.
yeah very true
Worldometers stats on covid in NY - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
& I don't blame people for getting outside. People are going stir crazy sitting at home. But a lot of people really don't get the whole social distancing thing.
& I don't blame people for getting outside. People are going stir crazy sitting at home. But a lot of people really don't get the whole social distancing thing.
Cuomo made mention of this the other day, basically said he cant expect families with kids to sit in their apartments in the middle of summer...
& I don't blame people for getting outside. People are going stir crazy sitting at home. But a lot of people really don't get the whole social distancing thing.
There’s very little risk of transmission walking or running past someone they open, people really don’t need to cross the street to avoid others.
He has already said he is not doing what the other states around him are doing, so for example the states around nj opened golf courses, he refuses..
He also said even if new york opens may 15th, he said new jersey will not just follow along..
i expect mid to late june for jersey
And northeast Jersey should be coordinating with the city in terms of a reopening.
And northeast Jersey should be coordinating with the city in terms of a reopening.
i just threw out may 15th as an example, but you are right upstate new york will probably start opening may 15th, the city will take longer, that is obvious..
he said the other day he will talk to new york but he will make the decision when..
several articles mention golf as a safer activity and no reason to devastate another industry.
CT and RI are open. And Mass residents who go to RI to play golf are being arrested.
several articles mention golf as a safer activity and no reason to devastate another industry.
CT and RI are open. And Mass residents who go to RI to play golf are being arrested.
my friend was already talking about going to PA on monday to go golfing..
And northeast Jersey should be coordinating with the city in terms of a reopening.
June 1 of what year?
How do you reopen NYC without the subway being a petri dish?
And, without a hint of irony, those are often the same people complaining about wanting the "lockdown" to be over.
The stay-at-home directive has always been reliant upon rigorous voluntary cooperation/participation. And the people who take it the least seriously create a drag in the efficacy of separation, and then they are the first to complain that this is going on longer than they expected.
several articles mention golf as a safer activity and no reason to devastate another industry.
CT and RI are open. And Mass residents who go to RI to play golf are being arrested.
Golf is a pretty decent social distancing activity. I've gone out a few times since lockdown as CT has left it open. But, pay by card over phone, separate carts per person or walking. Raised cups so no touching the flags. It's pretty safe.
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really needs to open golf courses.
several articles mention golf as a safer activity and no reason to devastate another industry.
CT and RI are open. And Mass residents who go to RI to play golf are being arrested.
Golf is a pretty decent social distancing activity. I've gone out a few times since lockdown as CT has left it open. But, pay by card over phone, separate carts per person or walking. Raised cups so no touching the flags. It's pretty safe.
Yes, from what I have read all open courses have taken these precautions.
Just makes sense to me they should be open (with modified regulations as you mentioned)
@Alicia_Smith19
Even though study released today is mostly inconclusive due to structure of study, there's reason to be hopeful:Large study conducted by NIAID(randomized double blind w/ control)will have interim results within next 2 weeks
@Alicia_Smith19
·
4m
Replying to
@Alicia_Smith19
And it should be noted that even though NIAID hasn’t commented on the control/double blind study yet, Gilead said this morning that results thus far have been positive:
one article linked below in the post, the other here:
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-treatment-gilead-says-positive-data-remdesivir-from-niaid-study-2020-4
link - ( New Window )
You don't have to act like the other guy is a thug with a running chainsaw, but you should be aware of your surroundings. If there are a lot of people in the area, wear a mask and maintain social distancing as much as easily possible. constantly maintaining best practices will make it second nature. If that means crossing the street, cross the street, especially if you're in a hot spot like NYC. Minimize the cavalier attitude.
@kenvogel
Remember the Arizona woman who said she & her husband ingested aquarium cleaner (which killed her husband) after hearing TRUMP tout one of its ingredients, chloroquine phosphate?
Homicide detectives are now investigating his death, reports @alanagoodman
.
yes but unless you walk or run directly in front of them, the risk is quite low. A couple feet to either side, maybe slightly more than usual, and and other normal precautions is sufficient in my opinion.
If we can get our shit together on testing (Fauci said today everyone who needs one will be able to get one by June), tracing, and scale the therapies, it would seem like we'd be as defensed as we could possibly be to deal with this pre-vaccine. Obviously would also make sense to keep some non-essential precautions in place too.
I really hope the next stimulus package includes some kind of budget towards staffing up people out of work into some kind of tracing army. That logically seems like it's "2 birds 1 stone". Scott Gottlieb was the head of the FDA through 2019 and he and some others put out a public letter outlining their suggested plan and it sounds like a good idea.
significant expansion is necessary. We believe the most reliable way to estimate the size of the workforce required is to size the contact tracing workload per case and multiply this by the number of daily cases. We estimate the necessary contract tracing workforce needs to be expanded by 180,000 until such time as a safe, effective vaccine is on the market. The workforce estimate assumes a continued but decreasing number of new cases. Contact tracing efforts in Massachusetts demonstrate that lay people can quickly be hired and trained, with 15,000 applications submitted for 1,000 positions within two weeks. The total funding required is estimated to be $12 billion.
Bipartisan Public Health Leaders Letter on COVID19 Tracking and Tracing - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Should say the October date is for the Oxford vaccine. Pfizer's dates are a little more vague.
@AlexBerenson
· 1h
Incredible data from Oregon suggesting much of the recent rise in all-cause mortality is lockdown rather than #Covid related - that people may simply be dying at home because they are too frightened to go to hospitals and failing to get medical treatment for other conditions.
Show this thread
@AlexBerenson
·
1h
Replying to
@AlexBerenson
The percentage of people dying at home has risen notably, but Oregon’s hospitals are empty - so this is not a capacity issue. People just aren’t going to get treatment. Link:
link - ( New Window )
Does State Parks include beaches?
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Alex Berenson
@AlexBerenson
· 1h
Incredible data from Oregon suggesting much of the recent rise in all-cause mortality is lockdown rather than #Covid related - that people may simply be dying at home because they are too frightened to go to hospitals and failing to get medical treatment for other conditions.
Show this thread
Quote:
Alex Berenson
@AlexBerenson
·
1h
Replying to
@AlexBerenson
The percentage of people dying at home has risen notably, but Oregon’s hospitals are empty - so this is not a capacity issue. People just aren’t going to get treatment. Link:
link - ( New Window )
Not surprised, people are terrified, myself included.
Question is... Should I be?
I'm really curious to see how the next couple of weeks go in terms of opening society back up, in a safe as possible manner.
I think there's definitely a lot of fear out there and probably people who are avoiding treatment for anything that's not immediately urgent but I'd imagine there are also far fewer traumatic injuries right now too (car accidents, etc). I believe crime has been down in some places also (or at least it was earlier in the lock downs). Like everything about this situation, it's so disruptive to 'normal' it's going to be years before they are able to sort out what has gone well and what hasn't, and it seems certain that there will be a mix of both.
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i am shocked
Does State Parks include beaches?
I dont think so
@JoeConchaTV
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1m
Fauci on remdesivir: "First truly high-powered randomized placebo-controlled trial." and shows “a drug can block this virus."
Should you be cautious? Yes
Frightened? Only if you fall in the co-morbidity (especially over age 70) category.
Should you die at home of gangrene because you're too afraid of getting that infected scratch looked at? Only if you're a moron or want to die.
So far I feel like Charlie Baker has been great. Very transparent and answers questions succinctly and willingly.
He explained he closed dispensaries because surrounding states (CT, RI, NH specifically he named) do not allow recreational marijuana usage and he did not want a scenario where other states flooded MA dispensaries. He wanted to be consistent with surrounding states.
However, CT and RI golf courses never closed, and Maine opens May 1. Massachusetts remain closed until at least May 18.
May seem like a small thing, and in the grand scheme it is, but IME people will tolerate what they feel is fair, consistent and makes sense.
Baker is creating an unnecessary problem with this one (and I'm not a huge golfer or dispensary customer)
1. Real personal DISPOSABLE (after-tax) income increased by 0.9 percentage points in January and February (the number was 0.2 pp in Q4 2019).
2. Real personal expenditures increased by 0.2 pp in January and February (the number was 0.4 pp in Q4 2019).
It's a demand shock, and not a government caused recession. It's why this will not be v-shaped, but will be long and drawn out.
3. Between July 2019 and February 2020, total wages increased by 2.5 percent, while total compensation (non-wage benefits) increased by 2.5 percent.
4.Between the same time period, personal consumption expenditures increased by only 1.7 percent, with notable slowdowns in seasonally adjusted economic activity in the past 2 months.
5. In 2020, we have seen disposable income-to-expenditure ratio be 4.5. Here are the historical values (first number is growth in real disposable income in Jan and Feb, second number is growth in real personal consumption expenditures.
2010: 0 and 1.0
2011: 0.6 and 0.7
2012: 1.3 and 1.1
2013: -6.3 and 0.4
2014: 1.1 and 0.9
2015: 0.8 and 0.5
2016: 0.5 and 0.8
2017: 1.0 and 0.5
2018: 1.3 and 0.3
2019: 0.5 and 0.4
2010: 0.9 and 0.2
So, some of the slowest growth we have seen in real PCE in quite some time, and a divergence between income and PCE that was not anticipated.
1. Real disposable income increased by 1 pp in March.
2. Real personal consumption expenditures fell by $253 billion in Q1 2020, which is a -2.1 pp fall in March (unprecedented).
Should you be cautious? Yes
Frightened? Only if you fall in the co-morbidity (especially over age 70) category.
Should you die at home of gangrene because you're too afraid of getting that infected scratch looked at? Only if you're a moron or want to die.
I understand that. But here's a scenario that crossed my mind recently. 5 year old took a significant tumble outside and was complaining about her side/ribs. Looked like a pretty good, immediate welt and bruise. Turned out to be nothing, but in that moment, you're thinking.... "does this really warrant a trip to the ER or doctors office? What about the fringe/non life or death things you're unsure of when weighing going to the ER when it otherwise couldn't hurt to get checked out if you're worried. Yeah, we only have a certain amount of cases, but they're all at or around doctors offices and hospitals.
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VA has a population of 8.5 mil. 522 deaths, 15K confirmed virus.
Should you be cautious? Yes
Frightened? Only if you fall in the co-morbidity (especially over age 70) category.
Should you die at home of gangrene because you're too afraid of getting that infected scratch looked at? Only if you're a moron or want to die.
I understand that. But here's a scenario that crossed my mind recently. 5 year old took a significant tumble outside and was complaining about her side/ribs. Looked like a pretty good, immediate welt and bruise. Turned out to be nothing, but in that moment, you're thinking.... "does this really warrant a trip to the ER or doctors office? What about the fringe/non life or death things you're unsure of when weighing going to the ER when it otherwise couldn't hurt to get checked out if you're worried. Yeah, we only have a certain amount of cases, but they're all at or around doctors offices and hospitals.
A lot of people in my family are in the healthcare field (providers, administrators, RNs), and it shouldn't be much of an issue. A lot of places are subdividing for COVID and non-COVID patients, and they have done a good job at separating them.
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In comment 14891080 fkap said:
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VA has a population of 8.5 mil. 522 deaths, 15K confirmed virus.
Should you be cautious? Yes
Frightened? Only if you fall in the co-morbidity (especially over age 70) category.
Should you die at home of gangrene because you're too afraid of getting that infected scratch looked at? Only if you're a moron or want to die.
I understand that. But here's a scenario that crossed my mind recently. 5 year old took a significant tumble outside and was complaining about her side/ribs. Looked like a pretty good, immediate welt and bruise. Turned out to be nothing, but in that moment, you're thinking.... "does this really warrant a trip to the ER or doctors office? What about the fringe/non life or death things you're unsure of when weighing going to the ER when it otherwise couldn't hurt to get checked out if you're worried. Yeah, we only have a certain amount of cases, but they're all at or around doctors offices and hospitals.
A lot of people in my family are in the healthcare field (providers, administrators, RNs), and it shouldn't be much of an issue. A lot of places are subdividing for COVID and non-COVID patients, and they have done a good job at separating them.
When the rubber hits the road, and my wife, my kids, or I need to go we would go. But still, it's troubling to think about and while I myself would not suffer out a heart attack, stroke, appendicitis, etc... I understand the fear that would cause people to do so.
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In comment 14891129 Britt in VA said:
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In comment 14891080 fkap said:
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VA has a population of 8.5 mil. 522 deaths, 15K confirmed virus.
Should you be cautious? Yes
Frightened? Only if you fall in the co-morbidity (especially over age 70) category.
Should you die at home of gangrene because you're too afraid of getting that infected scratch looked at? Only if you're a moron or want to die.
I understand that. But here's a scenario that crossed my mind recently. 5 year old took a significant tumble outside and was complaining about her side/ribs. Looked like a pretty good, immediate welt and bruise. Turned out to be nothing, but in that moment, you're thinking.... "does this really warrant a trip to the ER or doctors office? What about the fringe/non life or death things you're unsure of when weighing going to the ER when it otherwise couldn't hurt to get checked out if you're worried. Yeah, we only have a certain amount of cases, but they're all at or around doctors offices and hospitals.
A lot of people in my family are in the healthcare field (providers, administrators, RNs), and it shouldn't be much of an issue. A lot of places are subdividing for COVID and non-COVID patients, and they have done a good job at separating them.
When the rubber hits the road, and my wife, my kids, or I need to go we would go. But still, it's troubling to think about and while I myself would not suffer out a heart attack, stroke, appendicitis, etc... I understand the fear that would cause people to do so.
Out of all the shit that people regularly catch at the hospital, COVID probably has one of the lower death rates.
Hospitals are just dirty, disease-ridden, disease-spreading environments.
@JokkeNevalainen
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6m
Finland will re-open schools in a couple of weeks, and the reasoning is that they're claiming kids don't spread #COVID19 to adults.
So that's interesting.
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In comment 14891033 nygiants16 said:
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i am shocked
Does State Parks include beaches?
I dont think so
Think of it as a soft opening. Playgrounds and bathrooms still closed. Need social distancing. No crowds, and no team sports on available fields.
Gov Murphy also said he could pull back the allowed order if he see people abusing it......and temps are supposed to be nice this weekend here.
We shall see what happens.
Everyone else, it’s time to move on from the idea you can avoid exposure and get on with life. Treatment capacity, treatment methods, good practices for reasonable social distancing, optional tracing, good personal hygiene and relentless, coordinated and fast tracked (regulatory) pursuit of vaccine.
I can say that my experience was about as bad as possible *without* being hospitalized and I’m still not fully recovered. But, it’s not Ebola either. We should be prudent and cautious but not afraid. Most people who get this virus are going to be just fine and nearly all will live through it.
I don’t know how anyone that’s being honest at all can tell me that it’s a smart idea to open stadiums. I’d consider it wildly negligent if it happened.
But what about my football!!!!!!!!
my kids were over there my wife got sick with her lungs sounding bad, terrible cough and the doctor told her bronchitis and she had it for 2 or 3 weeks..
my kids then had 104 fevers for 5 days..
This is not a dumb question at all. More people should be asking it and we should base our policy going toward on the facts. Nearly everyone dying from this virus is over 70 and with under laying health problems. And this isn’t just in NY it’s globally.
High infection rate is uncertain but probably due to subway and other mass transit.
It is expected this policy would extend through the summer (still not 100% sure on this yet, but that's the assumption).
this essentially ends the rental season for homeowners and pretty much kills all tourism - maybe the biggest source of income for the state (20% of their revenue or $10B comes from tourism).
I guess the cape maybe see a demand increase.
Each fall, I go up there to visit cousin for football weekend. He lives in Kittery Point. If I have to quarantine for 14 days, I think he'd still invite me up. Two football Sundays, Haha.
& 14 days of crushing Stoneface IPA. Sign me up.
It is expected this policy would extend through the summer (still not 100% sure on this yet, but that's the assumption).
this essentially ends the rental season for homeowners and pretty much kills all tourism - maybe the biggest source of income for the state (20% of their revenue or $10B comes from tourism).
I guess the cape maybe see a demand increase.
Also kills my nephews wedding in Portland. Such a shame...
according to new york chart updated daily about 85 % of deaths are 60 and older with about 65% at 70 or older. New york city and the surrounding counties are the source of 3/4 of the deaths in the state thats why upstate will likely be allowed to start to reopen sooner than later by may 15.Bunch of counties are allowed to start scheduling elective surgeries again
One was supposed to be in Bar Harbor. I'm pissed that's not going to happen anytime soon.
It's mostly older people. Half the people dying are 75 and older.
And the majority of American adults qualify as having underlying health problems. Half of them are considered having high blood pressure since they recently changed the standards.
I am not sayong it is the wrong decision, but why not take week to week or every 2 weeks? i dont understand these governors who make these proclamations months and months in advance
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outlaws any event that draws a crowd more than 50 people for the whole summer.
I am not sayong it is the wrong decision, but why not take week to week or every 2 weeks? i dont understand these governors who make these proclamations months and months in advance
No idea. My kids were (and are) hopeful they can have some kind of high school graduation ceremony. The more announcements like this, make them more and more saddened as it seems more likely Massachusetts follows suit.
Because once you lose the trust (hey, I told you we could open by day XX, but we still can't), it's hard to put that genie back in the bottle.
Because once you lose the trust (hey, I told you we could open by day XX, but we still can't), it's hard to put that genie back in the bottle.
Makes sense, but I think a lot of these individual state mandates are sort of a delicate balance.
Just my opinion, but I think the bulk of the population understands the only way out of this is by everyone doing their part and following the regulations and guidelines provided by their state leadership.
but the balance breaks IMO if the bulk of the population finds the regulations and guidelines are overreaching and not aligned with what they're seeing or not obviously clear how they help (like the golf ban in Massachusetts).
You are seeing this in states like Michigan. Why prohibit a Michigan resident who has a second home from visiting that second home. Why allow Walmart and Target to be open, but control what people can buy when in those stores (restricting "non-essential" goods from being sold).
And on that topic, why allow Walmart and Target to sell clothes, but not the small mom and pop retailers. Obviously the pharmacy/grocery sections allow Walmart and Target to stay open, but point still stands.
Anyway, I think by making this decision now (or decisions like it) they could run the risk of more and more people ignoring the plan and the required regulations.
Most of the countries who have done well with containment have used far more invasive tactics than what we've done here so if you are leading a state seeing the worst of it I'd imagine you want to push as far as you can within the law.
The sharpest divide came at age 70. Although 4% of patients in their 60s died, more than twice that, or 8.6%, of those in their 70s did, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London and his colleagues estimated in their paper, published in Lancet Infectious Diseases.
The new estimates come as scientists have been scrambling to figure out the underlying reasons for older people’s greater susceptibility to the virus — and, in particular, why some mount a stronger immune response than others.
It starts with preexisting conditions: Data from China show that such comorbidities dramatically raise the risk of dying from Covid-19. But chronic illnesses may be not only a contributor to Covid-19 deaths but also a mark of biological aging and declining immunity.
Age and covid death why - ( New Window )
1. Real personal DISPOSABLE (after-tax) income increased by 0.9 percentage points in January and February (the number was 0.2 pp in Q4 2019).
2. Real personal expenditures increased by 0.2 pp in January and February (the number was 0.4 pp in Q4 2019).
It's a demand shock, and not a government caused recession. It's why this will not be v-shaped, but will be long and drawn out.
3. Between July 2019 and February 2020, total wages increased by 2.5 percent, while total compensation (non-wage benefits) increased by 2.5 percent.
4.Between the same time period, personal consumption expenditures increased by only 1.7 percent, with notable slowdowns in seasonally adjusted economic activity in the past 2 months.
5. In 2020, we have seen disposable income-to-expenditure ratio be 4.5. Here are the historical values (first number is growth in real disposable income in Jan and Feb, second number is growth in real personal consumption expenditures.
2010: 0 and 1.0
2011: 0.6 and 0.7
2012: 1.3 and 1.1
2013: -6.3 and 0.4
2014: 1.1 and 0.9
2015: 0.8 and 0.5
2016: 0.5 and 0.8
2017: 1.0 and 0.5
2018: 1.3 and 0.3
2019: 0.5 and 0.4
2010: 0.9 and 0.2
So, some of the slowest growth we have seen in real PCE in quite some time, and a divergence between income and PCE that was not anticipated.
Kicker, are all historical numbers for first 2 months of each year or entire year? So you are saying pce went negative in March?
1- their strategy expected worse results early on so I don't think the numbers below are surprising, the question at the heart of the risk of their strategy is how quickly things get better (which still seems TBD).
2- I don't know how they've fared economically compared to the other Nordic countries (Kicker?).
Some context - Sweden's population is just over 10m people, so it's the about the size of Michigan and it's the biggest Nordic country. It's population density is 22.9/km, which is about 1/3 as dense as Michigan(67/km). Overall Sweden has had 2.5k deaths at a rate of 256 deaths per 1m people, both of which are little better than MI's 3.6k deaths at 369 cases per M.
It's largest border is shared with Norway (5m pop & 16/km). Finland shares part of a border to the North and also has a population around 5m with 16/km. And to it's south Denmark with another 5m and it's a lot more population dense at 129/km. All 3 of their neighboring Nordic countries are under 100 deaths.
Here are 2 charts plotting their curves:
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Want to know the disconcerting elements from the Q1 2020 GDP numbers?
1. Real personal DISPOSABLE (after-tax) income increased by 0.9 percentage points in January and February (the number was 0.2 pp in Q4 2019).
2. Real personal expenditures increased by 0.2 pp in January and February (the number was 0.4 pp in Q4 2019).
It's a demand shock, and not a government caused recession. It's why this will not be v-shaped, but will be long and drawn out.
3. Between July 2019 and February 2020, total wages increased by 2.5 percent, while total compensation (non-wage benefits) increased by 2.5 percent.
4.Between the same time period, personal consumption expenditures increased by only 1.7 percent, with notable slowdowns in seasonally adjusted economic activity in the past 2 months.
5. In 2020, we have seen disposable income-to-expenditure ratio be 4.5. Here are the historical values (first number is growth in real disposable income in Jan and Feb, second number is growth in real personal consumption expenditures.
2010: 0 and 1.0
2011: 0.6 and 0.7
2012: 1.3 and 1.1
2013: -6.3 and 0.4
2014: 1.1 and 0.9
2015: 0.8 and 0.5
2016: 0.5 and 0.8
2017: 1.0 and 0.5
2018: 1.3 and 0.3
2019: 0.5 and 0.4
2010: 0.9 and 0.2
So, some of the slowest growth we have seen in real PCE in quite some time, and a divergence between income and PCE that was not anticipated.
Kicker, are all historical numbers for first 2 months of each year or entire year? So you are saying pce went negative in March?
First 2 months, same as the first 2 months of 2020.
I'm guessing the other 2 countries in those charts quarantined/sheltered in place compared to Sweden right?
Norway is expected to have -1.5% GDP growth in Q1 (1.5% Q4 2019), Finland is expected to have -1% GDP growth in Q1 (-0.7% Q4 2019), Sweden is expected to have -0.6% GDP growth in Q1 (0.2% in Q4 2019).
So, anemic Nordic growth, but it appears that coronavirus will be a significant demand shock outside of government policies.
I'm guessing the other 2 countries in those charts quarantined/sheltered in place compared to Sweden right?
Correct. And to be clear I think has implemented some mitigation steps, just fewer than most others
Funny Sweden story linked below.
Swedish city to dump chicken manure in park to deter visitors amid coronavirus - ( New Window )
Funny Sweden story linked below. Swedish city to dump chicken manure in park to deter visitors amid coronavirus - ( New Window )
That's hilarious - and yes the full merits of all these approaches won't be known for a while so any of these paths are gambles with upsides and downside. It's really a choose your own adventure game for political leaders. Containment was likely the most ideal strategy but once that horse left the barn it seems like the choices were:
a) strong mitigation to bend curve as quickly as possible, strongest immediate economic impact
b) weaker mitigation which may or may not bend curve, and likely has less economic impact though as Kicker has posted it may not be much less
To me it's less about those short term results/strategies but rather which path allows for the strongest re-opening in the medium term pre-vaccine? If Sweden punches through to herd immunity quickly perhaps they will have been proven correct, but if the other countries can bend the curve enough to reopen just as quickly or quicker, perhaps that was right. At the end of the day nobody knows for sure and it's a shit situation for all no matter what. It's just a natural disaster like a Hurricane or a Tornado. There's no real positive, you can only hope to deal with it the best you can.
Sweden, with a very large homogeneous population.
Sweden, with a MANDATED universal healthcare system with limited private insurance/practice that people routinely shit on.
Sweden, with a top marginal income tax rate in the mid- to high-50's (IIRC).
Most of the year you read about people saying "no, don't compare us to Nordic countries for improving things about 'Merica!", except when it's convenient for your point-of-view...
Sweden, with a very large homogeneous population.
Sweden, with a MANDATED universal healthcare system with limited private insurance/practice that people routinely shit on.
Sweden, with a top marginal income tax rate in the mid- to high-50's (IIRC).
Most of the year you read about people saying "no, don't compare us to Nordic countries for improving things about 'Merica!", except when it's convenient for your point-of-view...
this event has made for a lot of interesting feuds/bedfellows.
Quote:
In comment 14891112 kicker said:
Quote:
Want to know the disconcerting elements from the Q1 2020 GDP numbers?
1. Real personal DISPOSABLE (after-tax) income increased by 0.9 percentage points in January and February (the number was 0.2 pp in Q4 2019).
2. Real personal expenditures increased by 0.2 pp in January and February (the number was 0.4 pp in Q4 2019).
It's a demand shock, and not a government caused recession. It's why this will not be v-shaped, but will be long and drawn out.
3. Between July 2019 and February 2020, total wages increased by 2.5 percent, while total compensation (non-wage benefits) increased by 2.5 percent.
4.Between the same time period, personal consumption expenditures increased by only 1.7 percent, with notable slowdowns in seasonally adjusted economic activity in the past 2 months.
5. In 2020, we have seen disposable income-to-expenditure ratio be 4.5. Here are the historical values (first number is growth in real disposable income in Jan and Feb, second number is growth in real personal consumption expenditures.
2010: 0 and 1.0
2011: 0.6 and 0.7
2012: 1.3 and 1.1
2013: -6.3 and 0.4
2014: 1.1 and 0.9
2015: 0.8 and 0.5
2016: 0.5 and 0.8
2017: 1.0 and 0.5
2018: 1.3 and 0.3
2019: 0.5 and 0.4
2010: 0.9 and 0.2
So, some of the slowest growth we have seen in real PCE in quite some time, and a divergence between income and PCE that was not anticipated.
Kicker, are all historical numbers for first 2 months of each year or entire year? So you are saying pce went negative in March?
First 2 months, same as the first 2 months of 2020.
Thanks, I found this on bea which appears to have been released this morning.
Real DPI decreased 1.7 percent in March and Real PCE decreased 7.3 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index decreased 0.1 percent (table 9).
The breakdown also interestingly shows the biggest services decline was healthcare spending, which speaks to what some were saying about delaying healthcare due to fear. I know dentists are closed as well so that is probably a good chunk. I would kill for a cleaning right now. As far as goods, car sales are way down. That makes sense as people are putting off a big purchase in uncertain times and the need for cars decreased with so many working from home and unemployed.
Savings increased by 13% or so.
personal-income-and-outlays-march-2020 - ( New Window )
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In comment 14892028 Mattman said:
Quote:
In comment 14891112 kicker said:
Quote:
Want to know the disconcerting elements from the Q1 2020 GDP numbers?
1. Real personal DISPOSABLE (after-tax) income increased by 0.9 percentage points in January and February (the number was 0.2 pp in Q4 2019).
2. Real personal expenditures increased by 0.2 pp in January and February (the number was 0.4 pp in Q4 2019).
It's a demand shock, and not a government caused recession. It's why this will not be v-shaped, but will be long and drawn out.
3. Between July 2019 and February 2020, total wages increased by 2.5 percent, while total compensation (non-wage benefits) increased by 2.5 percent.
4.Between the same time period, personal consumption expenditures increased by only 1.7 percent, with notable slowdowns in seasonally adjusted economic activity in the past 2 months.
5. In 2020, we have seen disposable income-to-expenditure ratio be 4.5. Here are the historical values (first number is growth in real disposable income in Jan and Feb, second number is growth in real personal consumption expenditures.
2010: 0 and 1.0
2011: 0.6 and 0.7
2012: 1.3 and 1.1
2013: -6.3 and 0.4
2014: 1.1 and 0.9
2015: 0.8 and 0.5
2016: 0.5 and 0.8
2017: 1.0 and 0.5
2018: 1.3 and 0.3
2019: 0.5 and 0.4
2010: 0.9 and 0.2
So, some of the slowest growth we have seen in real PCE in quite some time, and a divergence between income and PCE that was not anticipated.
Kicker, are all historical numbers for first 2 months of each year or entire year? So you are saying pce went negative in March?
First 2 months, same as the first 2 months of 2020.
Thanks, I found this on bea which appears to have been released this morning.
Real DPI decreased 1.7 percent in March and Real PCE decreased 7.3 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index decreased 0.1 percent (table 9).
The breakdown also interestingly shows the biggest services decline was healthcare spending, which speaks to what some were saying about delaying healthcare due to fear. I know dentists are closed as well so that is probably a good chunk. I would kill for a cleaning right now. As far as goods, car sales are way down. That makes sense as people are putting off a big purchase in uncertain times and the need for cars decreased with so many working from home and unemployed.
Savings increased by 13% or so. personal-income-and-outlays-march-2020 - ( New Window )
Lol, yesterday's site (unless I was sleepwalking when reading it) said that real PCE fell by $238 billion (perhaps that was the early estimate...).
They were off by a factor of only $1 trillion. Rounding error...
That is the way I’ve been doing it since 2006 - negotiate over email and pick it up.
This is the conspiracy side of me and i don’t want to get political but there will be pressure to massage the numbers as much as possible for as long as possible to kick the can to save the stock market.
In comment 14891935 Bob from Massachusetts said:
Quote:
and the remdesivir data is very encouraging. Oh yes, I am also a doctor. The study that Fauci alluded to in the oval office yesterday is the only double-blind study that is formally reported. The data monitoring committee, which is unblinded to the study data but independent of the company, felt it was unethical to continue to assign patients to placebo. They met their primary endpoint with highly statistically significant results. Death trended in the right direction. It is very likely the drug does improve survival, but one cannot say that with confidence since the study stopped prematurely.
There have been other data that is less encouraging with this drug, but those studies are not as well controlled. Remdesivir requires IV infusion for either 5 or 10 days (not clear yet which is preferable), and will only be for people who already have hypoxia (low oxygen in the blood). It may ultimately lead to checking oxygen levels in the blood (easy to do and no needles required) more aggressively during the illness, but it is mostly to prevent the severe complications. It is not a cure-all, but it will very likely figure into the risk/benefit ratio as physical distancing recommendations are scaled back, and that's a good thing. There is ongoing work on other treatments, the best way to use remdesivir, and on vaccines (forget about September, that won't happen--maybe by the end of the year, for some people), so these will all be a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, the pandemic is being increasingly politicized, and that's likely to be a bad thing, but these are degrees of good and bad. It's not like a binary thing (open vs not open).
Just to build upon this with preliminary data from the trial:
-1063 patients enrolled- all with respiratory manifestations
-Primary end point: Time to recovery including hospital discharge or return to normal activity
-Remdesivir demonstrated a 31% faster recovery time compared with placebo (11 days vs 15)
-Also a mortality benefit with Remdesivir (8% vs 11.6% with plcaebo)
Not a home run but definitely a base hit.
Funny Sweden story linked below. Swedish city to dump chicken manure in park to deter visitors amid coronavirus - ( New Window )
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1255932188912214018 - ( New Window )
1- their strategy expected worse results early on so I don't think the numbers below are surprising, the question at the heart of the risk of their strategy is how quickly things get better (which still seems TBD).
2- I don't know how they've fared economically compared to the other Nordic countries (Kicker?).
Some context - Sweden's population is just over 10m people, so it's the about the size of Michigan and it's the biggest Nordic country. It's population density is 22.9/km, which is about 1/3 as dense as Michigan(67/km). Overall Sweden has had 2.5k deaths at a rate of 256 deaths per 1m people, both of which are little better than MI's 3.6k deaths at 369 cases per M.
It's largest border is shared with Norway (5m pop & 16/km). Finland shares part of a border to the North and also has a population around 5m with 16/km. And to it's south Denmark with another 5m and it's a lot more population dense at 129/km. All 3 of their neighboring Nordic countries are under 100 deaths.
Here are 2 charts plotting their curves:
How come Silver decided to scale the graphs completely differently? One not paying attention would say Sweden's death rate has skyrocketed vs the other Nordic countries, when the reality is the score is 2,000 to 250, or an incremental 1750 deaths, on a population base of 10 million (0.018% of population). Translation - way too early to tell, as i believe you and others have said.
I just think Silver is too smart to have done that by mistake.
Both are important, which is why he showed both...
Quote:
Researchers on Monday announced the most comprehensive estimates to date of elderly people’s elevated risk of serious illness and death from the new coronavirus: Covid-19 kills an estimated 13.4% of patients 80 and older, compared to 1.25% of those in their 50s and 0.3% of those in their 40s.
The sharpest divide came at age 70. Although 4% of patients in their 60s died, more than twice that, or 8.6%, of those in their 70s did, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London and his colleagues estimated in their paper, published in Lancet Infectious Diseases.
The new estimates come as scientists have been scrambling to figure out the underlying reasons for older people’s greater susceptibility to the virus — and, in particular, why some mount a stronger immune response than others.
It starts with preexisting conditions: Data from China show that such comorbidities dramatically raise the risk of dying from Covid-19. But chronic illnesses may be not only a contributor to Covid-19 deaths but also a mark of biological aging and declining immunity.
Age and covid death why - ( New Window )
Thanks but that research is a month old which is an eternity as it pertains to this crisis. While directionally of course accurate, the anti-body studies are proving the mortality rate assumptions were/are completely off and overstated... since, and it isnt hard to understand why... mass population testing has been woefully understated globally since this began.
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is a bit wonky.
This is the conspiracy side of me and i don’t want to get political but there will be pressure to massage the numbers as much as possible for as long as possible to kick the can to save the stock market.
If you look at wonkier things, add up initial unemployment claims, and then look at continued unemployment claims. There's a gap of about 6 million people based on the 25 million initial UI claims from the last week.
Both are important, which is why he showed both...
I get all that... putting them side by side with one log and one linear is just plain spin....
Both are important, which is why he showed both...
Also MAB they weren't created or posted by Nate Silver (they were posted by Eric Ding, not sure if he created them or someone else).
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one is log and one is linear. Log allows for percent changes (i.e., rate of growth) while linear is levels.
Both are important, which is why he showed both...
I get all that... putting them side by side with one log and one linear is just plain spin....
No, it's really not. Research often puts estimates of logs and levels side-by-side. They both provide valuable information. It's not Silver's fault if people are so statistically illiterate they're unable to discern the difference in the axes...
It's legal per the state firearm laws. Some are constitutional carry states, others you need a permit but they still allow open carry.
And wrt to Black Lives Matter, not if they're following the law, and have you seen the crowds at BLM gatherings? There are like 10% black people and the rest are white Gen-Z Bernie supporters. Pretty sure they mostly don't own firearms.
BLM protests likely draw "anti-protests" with gun-carrying white supremacists, so any extra police presence is likely to keep the peace between everyone. I wouldn't be surprised if the "anti-protests" were larger in # than these current protests.
Quote:
Tough thing is that we won't know the full merits of the approach until probably months from now. I know their officials are talking herd immunity in a few weeks.
Funny Sweden story linked below. Swedish city to dump chicken manure in park to deter visitors amid coronavirus - ( New Window )
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1255932188912214018 - ( New Window )
The excess deaths in Sweden is interesting. Throws some cold water on the theory that deaths are up worldwide mainly because people are afraid to go the hospital. What's Sweden's excuse?
in 1967 The Black Panthers showed up with guns to California State Capitol building (Fun fact original name of the group was the Black Panther Party for Self Defense ) - and shortly after California passed the toughest gun control bill in the US sign by Governor Ronald Reagan .
Link - ( New Window )
(How, in a perfect world, I'd be up there this summer, hitting up Vic's in Bradley Beach, followed by Johnny Mac's in Asbury Park, etc. Make a stop at Carton Brewery & Kane. Maybe in 2021.)
Quote:
"protests" - we have dozens of people in different cities with semi-automatic rifles and tac gear amassing at state capitals and other government buildings and shouting at politicians. How is this legal? If the next Black Lives Matter gathering has dozens of guys with AR15's and ammo belts, we'll see 47 SWAT teams...
It's legal per the state firearm laws. Some are constitutional carry states, others you need a permit but they still allow open carry.
And wrt to Black Lives Matter, not if they're following the law, and have you seen the crowds at BLM gatherings? There are like 10% black people and the rest are white Gen-Z Bernie supporters. Pretty sure they mostly don't own firearms.
I get the open carry laws, but these dudes are INTO state capital buildings and getting into shouting matches with politicians and security personnel. It’s a miracle some psycho hasn’t started a firefight yet.
Black minors can't even have fake guns, or wear hooded sweatshirts.
I would love to see a group of 100 black men, with masks, strapped with military-grade weapons, bullet proof vests, show up to the State Capital yelling and screaming with demands and see what happens.
Or, perhaps even better-- how about a group of 100 bearded Muslims, covering their faces with keffiyehs, marching into a state government building armed to the teeth, while yelling and making demands. Perhaps throw a few women in there wearing burqas (you know, face coverings to protect against Covid).
Let's see how these fake patriots react to those groups demonstrating.
Quote:
In comment 14892423 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
"protests" - we have dozens of people in different cities with semi-automatic rifles and tac gear amassing at state capitals and other government buildings and shouting at politicians. How is this legal? If the next Black Lives Matter gathering has dozens of guys with AR15's and ammo belts, we'll see 47 SWAT teams...
It's legal per the state firearm laws. Some are constitutional carry states, others you need a permit but they still allow open carry.
And wrt to Black Lives Matter, not if they're following the law, and have you seen the crowds at BLM gatherings? There are like 10% black people and the rest are white Gen-Z Bernie supporters. Pretty sure they mostly don't own firearms.
I get the open carry laws, but these dudes are INTO state capital buildings and getting into shouting matches with politicians and security personnel. It’s a miracle some psycho hasn’t started a firefight yet.
I understand its legal and all, but if you're protesting this particular item, why bring guns? What does the gun buy you?
Quote:
In comment 14892423 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
"protests" - we have dozens of people in different cities with semi-automatic rifles and tac gear amassing at state capitals and other government buildings and shouting at politicians. How is this legal? If the next Black Lives Matter gathering has dozens of guys with AR15's and ammo belts, we'll see 47 SWAT teams...
It's legal per the state firearm laws. Some are constitutional carry states, others you need a permit but they still allow open carry.
And wrt to Black Lives Matter, not if they're following the law, and have you seen the crowds at BLM gatherings? There are like 10% black people and the rest are white Gen-Z Bernie supporters. Pretty sure they mostly don't own firearms.
I get the open carry laws, but these dudes are INTO state capital buildings and getting into shouting matches with politicians and security personnel. It’s a miracle some psycho hasn’t started a firefight yet.
well, I got nothing.
Quote:
In comment 14892431 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14892423 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
"protests" - we have dozens of people in different cities with semi-automatic rifles and tac gear amassing at state capitals and other government buildings and shouting at politicians. How is this legal? If the next Black Lives Matter gathering has dozens of guys with AR15's and ammo belts, we'll see 47 SWAT teams...
It's legal per the state firearm laws. Some are constitutional carry states, others you need a permit but they still allow open carry.
And wrt to Black Lives Matter, not if they're following the law, and have you seen the crowds at BLM gatherings? There are like 10% black people and the rest are white Gen-Z Bernie supporters. Pretty sure they mostly don't own firearms.
I get the open carry laws, but these dudes are INTO state capital buildings and getting into shouting matches with politicians and security personnel. It’s a miracle some psycho hasn’t started a firefight yet.
I understand its legal and all, but if you're protesting this particular item, why bring guns? What does the gun buy you?
Cool points with cosplaying groups. They are all cookie cutter white guys too. Almost as if they are the same guys in each state
LOL, yeah, you wouldn't hear it about.
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maybe there has been and we just don't hear about it but I assume they aren't all expert safety instructors or professionally trained. Just think about all the safety precautions and rules at shooting ranges then add in the extra layer of opposing groups sizing each other up. Then add in the elements of crowd control because these are public spaces where there regular people doing their jobs. The whole thing just seems like an accidental disaster waiting to happen. All it takes is 1 Plax.
LOL, yeah, you wouldn't hear it about.
Obviously it'd be breaking news if it's happened in a non-benign way. What are the odds some guy hasn't parked a quarter mile away and accidentally discharged into the sky at some point? Maybe they aren't loading live ammunition? That would be the smart thing to do because it doesn't change the intended image - though accidents still happen in that scenario (joe exotic husband #2).
my initial response was if you think there was an accidental gun discharged at one of these protests that the media just decided wasn't a big deal and they were going to just not report it, that is what I found laughable.
it's happened, Charlottesville. Not a gun shot, but a homicide.
And every single antifa protest or counter protest involves violence, they just don't get covered as much.
but yeah, if there is an incident at one of these right wing militia like group protests it will be 24-hours news cycle.
JFC.
JFC.
It’s just starting to heat up in other regions of the country. This is just getting started. Wait until rural America gets hit. With the hospitals there it’s going to be ugly
JFC.
So 0.05% of the country over 4 months
70-80% of which are over 70.
I get it’s a crisis, the death rate lags by 2-3 weeks... but the reality is if we weren’t all sitting at home watching the economy willingly destroyed With nothing else on to distract this wouldn’t garner this fear and reaction.
California remains shut down with 2k deaths in 4 months. You can’t make this up!
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time in the last 10 days. We're now over 62K deaths as a nation.
JFC.
It’s just starting to heat up in other regions of the country. This is just getting started. Wait until rural America gets hit. With the hospitals there it’s going to be ugly
Why would it all of sudden start to heat up somewhere else? It is not going to say ok done in new york time to move over to another state..
my friend is a cop in tennessee, in his county they set up a test site, they have had 1 positive case..
its not going to all of sudden just surge, the entire country is on the same timetable..
So 0.05% of the country over 4 months
70-80% of which are over 70.
I get it’s a crisis, the death rate lags by 2-3 weeks... but the reality is if we weren’t all sitting at home watching the economy willingly destroyed With nothing else on to distract this wouldn’t garner this fear and reaction.
California remains shut down with 2k deaths in 4 months. You can’t make this up!
Just because it could be worse doesn't mean this hasn't been absolutely devastating. The rate at which deaths are piling up in this country due to an epidemic is the worst since the 1968 Hong Kong Flu. All the people who were saying "this is just the Swine Flu all over again" or "this isn't much worse than the Seasonal Flu" have been proven to be completely wrong (yet some still try to make this argument).
"It's by far the worst epidemic this country has faced in over 50 years, but it's mainly just killing old people so we need to stop freaking out." Kind of ridiculous.
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time in the last 10 days. We're now over 62K deaths as a nation.
JFC.
So 0.05% of the country over 4 months
70-80% of which are over 70.
I get it’s a crisis, the death rate lags by 2-3 weeks... but the reality is if we weren’t all sitting at home watching the economy willingly destroyed With nothing else on to distract this wouldn’t garner this fear and reaction.
California remains shut down with 2k deaths in 4 months. You can’t make this up!
What makes you think the economy wouldn’t still be in the shitter had we not closed? Not only would the death totals be greater but even more people would be flooding hospitals. More people wouldn’t show up for work for fear of death. Strikes and work stoppages would happen. We were getting shut down no matter what, IMO. It was going to happen organically (chaos) or it was going to happen the way it did to minimize health risk and put some structure behind it.
I actually think our economy might be better off with what we did vs. the potential damage of the alternative.
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In comment 14892654 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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time in the last 10 days. We're now over 62K deaths as a nation.
JFC.
So 0.05% of the country over 4 months
70-80% of which are over 70.
I get it’s a crisis, the death rate lags by 2-3 weeks... but the reality is if we weren’t all sitting at home watching the economy willingly destroyed With nothing else on to distract this wouldn’t garner this fear and reaction.
California remains shut down with 2k deaths in 4 months. You can’t make this up!
What makes you think the economy wouldn’t still be in the shitter had we not closed? Not only would the death totals be greater but even more people would be flooding hospitals. More people wouldn’t show up for work for fear of death. Strikes and work stoppages would happen. We were getting shut down no matter what, IMO. It was going to happen organically (chaos) or it was going to happen the way it did to minimize health risk and put some structure behind it.
I actually think our economy might be better off with what we did vs. the potential damage of the alternative.
I agree, what good would restaurants and bars being open when no one would show up?
It's fooking amazing.
It's fooking amazing.
You mean aside from the following:
Taliban attacks in Afghanistan
Israel planning to annex occupied West Bank
Violent protests in Lebanon
Iran/Venezuela try to skirt sanctions
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In comment 14892654 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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time in the last 10 days. We're now over 62K deaths as a nation.
JFC.
It’s just starting to heat up in other regions of the country. This is just getting started. Wait until rural America gets hit. With the hospitals there it’s going to be ugly
Why would it all of sudden start to heat up somewhere else? It is not going to say ok done in new york time to move over to another state..
my friend is a cop in tennessee, in his county they set up a test site, they have had 1 positive case..
its not going to all of sudden just surge, the entire country is on the same timetable..
That's really not accurate at all. The virus doesn't hit every city or state in a country at the same time, and the lag time could be weeks or months for some areas, but it only takes a few new carriers introduced into a community before it reaches a critical level of spread with increasing infections.
For some places, that may never happen - there are a lot of one-stoplight towns in the US that just don't have a ton of overlap with other communities, and they may simply not encounter an infected person from whom they can catch the virus. But they could two weeks from now and that would be the start of their timeline, completely detached from the initial spreads in Washington and New York.
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In comment 14892665 family progtitioner said:
Quote:
In comment 14892654 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
time in the last 10 days. We're now over 62K deaths as a nation.
JFC.
It’s just starting to heat up in other regions of the country. This is just getting started. Wait until rural America gets hit. With the hospitals there it’s going to be ugly
Why would it all of sudden start to heat up somewhere else? It is not going to say ok done in new york time to move over to another state..
my friend is a cop in tennessee, in his county they set up a test site, they have had 1 positive case..
its not going to all of sudden just surge, the entire country is on the same timetable..
That's really not accurate at all. The virus doesn't hit every city or state in a country at the same time, and the lag time could be weeks or months for some areas, but it only takes a few new carriers introduced into a community before it reaches a critical level of spread with increasing infections.
For some places, that may never happen - there are a lot of one-stoplight towns in the US that just don't have a ton of overlap with other communities, and they may simply not encounter an infected person from whom they can catch the virus. But they could two weeks from now and that would be the start of their timeline, completely detached from the initial spreads in Washington and New York.
The big cities in the us are on the downswing of their surge..
The country areas, the farmlands, will not see a big surge because they are naturally spread out..
A lot of places have not and will not see a surge..
So saying this is just beginning is not a true statement..
My point is it is not just going to show up in a different state and say ok your turn..
you need someone to bring it to that state and then spread it, those towns are so spread out it would be hard to soresd it to everyone..
You want to say new york or new jersey could see a second wave or an uptick again i would say yes i agree there could be..
but for a lot of towns in the central us this will not effect them like the big cities..
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In comment 14892674 nygiants16 said:
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In comment 14892665 family progtitioner said:
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In comment 14892654 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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time in the last 10 days. We're now over 62K deaths as a nation.
JFC.
It’s just starting to heat up in other regions of the country. This is just getting started. Wait until rural America gets hit. With the hospitals there it’s going to be ugly
Why would it all of sudden start to heat up somewhere else? It is not going to say ok done in new york time to move over to another state..
my friend is a cop in tennessee, in his county they set up a test site, they have had 1 positive case..
its not going to all of sudden just surge, the entire country is on the same timetable..
That's really not accurate at all. The virus doesn't hit every city or state in a country at the same time, and the lag time could be weeks or months for some areas, but it only takes a few new carriers introduced into a community before it reaches a critical level of spread with increasing infections.
For some places, that may never happen - there are a lot of one-stoplight towns in the US that just don't have a ton of overlap with other communities, and they may simply not encounter an infected person from whom they can catch the virus. But they could two weeks from now and that would be the start of their timeline, completely detached from the initial spreads in Washington and New York.
The big cities in the us are on the downswing of their surge..
The country areas, the farmlands, will not see a big surge because they are naturally spread out..
A lot of places have not and will not see a surge..
So saying this is just beginning is not a true statement..
Wrong. There will be hotspots popping up now until there's a vaccine. In the fall there will likely be another huge surge. Aren't people just sick of being wrong about this virus yet? I get it, we need to open the economy but this thing is not going away. Normalcy maybe summer 2021
This isn't over yet. CT is starting their slow re-open on 5/20 but its very limited. The really need to baby step this and they need a plan in place to act quick if numbers spike again.
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In comment 14892786 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 14892674 nygiants16 said:
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In comment 14892665 family progtitioner said:
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In comment 14892654 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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time in the last 10 days. We're now over 62K deaths as a nation.
JFC.
It’s just starting to heat up in other regions of the country. This is just getting started. Wait until rural America gets hit. With the hospitals there it’s going to be ugly
Why would it all of sudden start to heat up somewhere else? It is not going to say ok done in new york time to move over to another state..
my friend is a cop in tennessee, in his county they set up a test site, they have had 1 positive case..
its not going to all of sudden just surge, the entire country is on the same timetable..
That's really not accurate at all. The virus doesn't hit every city or state in a country at the same time, and the lag time could be weeks or months for some areas, but it only takes a few new carriers introduced into a community before it reaches a critical level of spread with increasing infections.
For some places, that may never happen -
Wrong. There will be hotspots popping up now until there's a vaccine. In the fall there will likely be another huge surge. Aren't people just sick of being wrong about this virus yet? I get it, we need to open the economy but this thing is not going away. Normalcy maybe summer 2021
no ome said anything about not being another surge or uptick in cases, but in rural america it will never be like jersey or new york, just never going to happen..
it travels person to person, it doesnt levitate from new york to ohio, you need someone to bring it to those places..
Places with a lot of farmland your just not going to see big surges just not going to happen..
if you say a 2nd surge in jersey or new york i agree, we just dont know if it is going to be a small one or big one..
and again i habe said many times the reopen should be gradual, 2 week intervals, if we get an uptick you shut it down..
Whether or not Georgia's decision to re-open retail sector was wise or not.
Whether or not Georgia's decision to re-open retail sector was wise or not.
yup if they surge up,nj and new york will probably slow down their open
if you say a 2nd surge in jersey or new york i agree, we just dont know if it is going to be a small one or big one..
and again i habe said many times the reopen should be gradual, 2 week intervals, if we get an uptick you shut it down..
The risk is a micro outbreak from a medium to large event. Think livestock auction, mega church, gun show, high school graduation.
Back to normal for rural and smaller communities involveds congregating, not just sitting on your farm.
Now imagine the emergency healthcare safety net in a rural community and what the survival rate will be for the seriously ill.
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Places with a lot of farmland your just not going to see big surges just not going to happen..
if you say a 2nd surge in jersey or new york i agree, we just dont know if it is going to be a small one or big one..
and again i habe said many times the reopen should be gradual, 2 week intervals, if we get an uptick you shut it down..
The risk is a micro outbreak from a medium to large event. Think livestock auction, mega church, gun show, high school graduation.
Back to normal for rural and smaller communities involveds congregating, not just sitting on your farm.
Now imagine the emergency healthcare safety net in a rural community and what the survival rate will be for the seriously ill.
they wont just be sitting on their farm but someone has to bring it there, if it is not there yet the odds are it wont be brought there..
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because they're so rural, but it's definitely going to impact every community in the USA. I think that's unavoidable. And sadly, a lot of these rural areas don't have many hospitals so if there is a surge, it could turn ugly quickly.
My point is it is not just going to show up in a different state and say ok your turn..
you need someone to bring it to that state and then spread it, those towns are so spread out it would be hard to soresd it to everyone..
You want to say new york or new jersey could see a second wave or an uptick again i would say yes i agree there could be..
but for a lot of towns in the central us this will not effect them like the big cities..
Ok, you're looking at just the rural example I gave, but beyond that, you're still wrong about every city being on the same timetable. That's just not the way viruses spread. Every city has a patient zero. Those patient zero individuals arrive in their respective community at different times, sometimes days apart, sometimes weeks apart. But that's enough to have different timelines in play simultaneously across different cities.
To suggest that it's in any way synced up in different cities in different parts of this country or denying that some cities can be on the upswing while others are in their peak and others still are past their spike (or first spike, anyway) is just a wacky take.
As of April 7, Wisconsin only had 2.6k confirmed cases, statewide. Considering only 7% of their state population voted in the primary, and only 0.04% of their state population was known to be infected at the time, is that really shocking that there was not a significant spike? There's still some sort of critical mass in infections required to spur a spike, and the contagion has to overlap with the opportunity.
They have increased since then by 2.65x in confirmed cases; that's a faster rate than NYC has increased over the same timeframe (2.16x).
So... negotiate with terrorists?
So... negotiate with terrorists?
Follow the money. Who is organizing these psychos?
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now these people armed to the teeth in military gear, holding AR-15's in a "ready to shoot" position, wearing masks hiding their identity, making demands, are being called "very good people" who should be listened to and that a deal should be made with them.
So... negotiate with terrorists?
Follow the money. Who is organizing these psychos?
OANN???
Link - ( New Window )
Isn't that what the data kicker's computed/shared showed too?
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started - likely right around the time we started seeing the bad news in Europe and people (and the markets) got spooked about what could happen here. So it seems like the economists are correct that the demand problem is going to be there until the health problem gets solved to a greater degree.
Isn't that what the data kicker's computed/shared showed too?
Yes - he's been on that pretty much from the beginning.
Whether or not Georgia's decision to re-open retail sector was wise or not.
It won't. With more testing, the people who think we should remain in lock down will refer to the spike in cases. The people who think we should open will refer to the fact that the spike in cases is due to increased testing.
If there is a spike in deaths, people who think we should remain in lock down will refer to that. People who think we should open will argue that you can't rely on that info since they're "counting all deaths as Covid related".
And so on and so on.
I don't believe the science would support those odds.
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they wont just be sitting on their farm but someone has to bring it there, if it is not there yet the odds are it wont be brought there..
I don't believe the science would support those odds.
ok, hopefully it doesnt, hope your famiky is safe and healthy
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In comment 14892898 nygiants16 said:
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they wont just be sitting on their farm but someone has to bring it there, if it is not there yet the odds are it wont be brought there..
I don't believe the science would support those odds.
ok, hopefully it doesnt, hope your famiky is safe and healthy
To you as well. I'm particularly concerned about healthcare in rural and small areas. I grew up in a small town, my folks still live there.
I've seen the thin resources available. Last year a family member was hospitalized and on a ventilator. I vividly remember the nurse saying "we need this ventilator now, because our other one is being used."
Anecdotal yes, but this is a small, but pretty wealthy rural community. There are lots of places in America where the healthcare apparatus is very lean.
The Ars COVID-19 vaccine primer: 100-plus in the works, 8 in clinical trials - ( New Window )
I'm not denying that there wasn't a spike, but these are probability models just like anything else. The more interaction there is between people who are physically near each other or leave behind any sort of physical residue, the greater the probability that there will be increased infection. But it's not binary, obviously. When there's a 90% chance of rain, the weatherman isn't wrong if it just stays cloudy; it's just that the less likely scenario played out.
I'm not sure we should take any insights from the Wisconsin primary other than the fact that their in-person turnout was lower than usual and they were fortunate to avoid a spike. And behaviorally, mail-in ballots represented 80% of their primary turnout, vs. roughly 10% for Wisconsin in the 2016 primary and 27% in the 2016 general election.
Is your point supposed to be an insight into the likelihood/necessity of absentee balloting in the general election this fall? I'm not sure the numbers support any sort of data since the overwhelming majority of Wisconsin voters did so by mail in the primary. And since this topic clearly falls into partisan camps, I'll just leave it there rather than taking the bait any further with the unspoken underlying politics that accompanied your initial post on the topic.
And they were relieved that a spike did not occur (so far at least).
That's it. Just some good news.
No conclusions about virulence or future elections or anything else.
Hawaii 5/6/2020
Montana 5/6/2020
Alaska 5/7/2020
West Virginia 5/8/2020
Vermont 5/10/2020
North Carolina 5/11/2020
Maine 5/13/2020
Ohio 5/14/2020
Idaho 5/16/2020
New Hampshire 5/16/2020
California 5/18/2020
Alabama 5/19/2020
Deleware 5/19/2020
Illinois 5/19/2020
Michigan 5/20/2020
Nevada 5/20/2020
Tennessee 5/20/2020
Indiana 5/21/2020
Wisconsin 5/21/2020
Louisiana 5/23/2020
New Mexico 5/24/2020
Wyoming 5/25/2020
Colorado 5/26/2020
New Jersey 5/27/2020
New York 5/27/2020
Oregon 5/27/2020
Pennsylvania 5/27/2020
Washington 5/28/2020
Mississippi 5/29/2020
Minnesota 5/31/2020
Maryland 6/4/2020
Virginia 6/4/2020
Washington DC 6/4/2020
Texas 6/8/2020
Connecticut 6/9/2020
Massachusetts 6/10/2020
Missouri 6/10/2020
Rhode Island 6/10/2020
Florida 6/14/2020
Kentucky 6/14/2020
Oklahoma 6/17/2020
South Carolina 6/18/2020
Kansas 6/21/2020
Arkansas 6/22/2020
Georgia 6/22/2020
Utah 6/23/2020
Arizona 6/26/2020
Iowa 6/26/2020
South Dakota 6/27/2020
Nebraska 7/3/2020
North Dakota 7/19/2020
So it seems like the CDC's mortality data for during the week ending April 11th is fairly complete. There will be slight changes based on getting more and more info, but it's complete enough that we can atleast take a glance at it.
Week Ending 04/11/20
Deaths from All Causes: 66,577
Expected* Deaths from All Causes: 55,481
Deaths from COVID-19: 12,262
Deaths from COVID + Influenza + Pneumonia: 16,744
*Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.
So a couple of myths can be disproved.
- Not every flu/pneumonia death is being coded as COVID-19 to "boost" the numbers. Roughly 4,500 deaths during this week were coded as Influenza/Pneumonia which is in line with the average number of Influenza/Pneumonia deaths from before the time COVID exploded. It's actually a little higher than expected if anything.
- The deaths from all causes is 20% higher than expected, with over 11,000 deaths more than the seasonal weekly average from 2017-19. Now, you might be thinking "11,000 excess deaths is less than the 12,262 COVID deaths so that means 1,200 COVID deaths are from other stuff being coded it to boost the numbers". The problem with that is the fact that the "Expected" death total is just a guess based on prior years' data. From the week ending 02/01 to 03/21, the average 2020 death total was only about 97% of the expected death total from 2017-2019. If 04/11/20 expected death total was 97% of 2017-19 like previous weeks, that means the "excess deaths" for the week would be 12,500 or right in line with the COVID-19 death numbers. Either way there's nothing to indicate COVID-19 being vastly overcounted due to coding.
- This isn't just "a really aggressive flu season". This is much much worse. Forget about deaths labeled as just COVID, the more important number is the deaths labeled as "COVID, Influenza, or Pneumonia" because it provides a better historical context of expected deaths. Roughly 16,744 out of 66,577 deaths were due to Covid/Influenza/Pneumonia or 25.1%, just crazy.
Comparison vs. the Seasonal Flu
- 25.1% of all deaths were due to Covid/Influenza/Pneumonia for week ending 04/11/20
- The epidemic threshold* for this week when it comes to Influenza/Pneumonia is 7.0% of all deaths
- The expected percentage of all deaths was 18.1% above the epidemic threshold
*An intensity threshold is a value developed using data from past flu seasons that helps assess the chance that a system will go above a certain threshold. Intensity thresholds give researchers the ability to determine flu season severity systematically.
So how does the "18.1% above epidemic threshold" figure for the week ending 04/11 compares with the worst figures in a flu season since 2014. Let's just say it doesn't compare.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
% of Influenza/Pneumonia/COVID deaths above epidemic threshold (data since 2014)
2020 (week 15): +18.1%
2020 (week 14): +13.3%
2020 (week 13): +5.9%
2020 (week 12): +1.8%
2018 (week 08): +1.5%
2018 (week 07): +2.0%
2018 (week 06): +2.0%
2018 (week 05): +2.5%
2018 (week 04): +3.0%
2018 (week 03): +3.3% (Worst week in a historically bad season)
2018 (week 02): +3.0%
2018 (week 01): +2.1%
2015 (week 04): +1.0%
2015 (week 03): +1.6%
2015 (week 02): +2.3%
2015 (week 01): +2.5%
2014 (week 53): +2.0%
2014 (week 04): +1.3%
2014 (week 03): +1.6%
2014 (week 02): +1.5%
Those are the only weeks since 2014 that were 1% above the epidemic threshold. So, 1% above the threshold is a real cause for concern. 3.3% above the threshold is absolutely terrible and about as bad as you'll ever see in a Flu season. I don't even know what that makes the 18.1% figure for the week of 4/11/20. With 4/18, 4/25, and 05/02 expected to just as bad as that week.
Please ignore anyone who compares this to a typical flu season or tries to say the death count is grossly exaggerated due to hospitals lying about numbers.
India has more population density, shitty healthcare, worse testing, and only similar lockdown which was eased at a similar pace.
Sounds like a model for dealing with a pandemic.
Maybe it's just a shitty situation that is brand new to the world and not entirely predictable?
Or you can continue your miserable comparisons about everyone handling this better than x.
All conspiracy theories have some twisted logic but the idea that they there is an intentional over-count from the numbers the gov is reporting seems especially so. Who would have both the means and motivation to do that? Hospitals? CDC? State Leaders?
@AFP
·
2m
#BREAKING US approves Gilead's remdesivir drug for coronavirus patients, says Trump
link - ( New Window )
That is different than approval.
That is different than approval.
in fairness to the fucking fact checking challenged, most articles (if not all) say it was approved for emergency use.
not sure I've seem him quoted as saying otherwise.
sometimes in tweets the author limits the context.
for example, here is the CNBC headline (I only copied the AFP News Agency tweet one b/c it was the first one I saw)
but please continue to rail if you like.
And I have no idea who tweeted that, but every article I see from big, reputable news sources has "emergency use" all over it.
And I have no idea who tweeted that, but every article I see from big, reputable news sources has "emergency use" all over it.
the tweet was from the AFP New Agency (a Paris based international news source) I follow on twitter.
It was a twitter error and on me for sharing.
Not that I need or want to defend the President, trust me I do not want to, he says and does enough stupid shit.
but it does not appear that omission was on him, it was the news source.
I can't really find any statements one way or the other for a direct quote, other than O'Day from Gilead.
Today there is an article in the Sydney Morning Herald that seems to support that claim (though admitting more study is needed).
Major studies into the impact of COVID-19 on young children suggest they "do not play a significant role" in spreading the virus and are less likely to become infected than adults.
link - ( New Window )
I can't really find any statements one way or the other for a direct quote, other than O'Day from Gilead.
I think it was on me for sharing the AFP News Agency tweet - sorry.
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statement, for whomever tweeted that (as well as potentially what was actually said).
I can't really find any statements one way or the other for a direct quote, other than O'Day from Gilead.
I think it was on me for sharing the AFP News Agency tweet - sorry.
Eh, it's important. And it's not like this is social media (I mean, I'm pretty sure the hamster can only handle 1996 technology) where this post can be shared and liked a million ways.
That's where linking it would be more harmful...
Today there is an article in the Sydney Morning Herald that seems to support that claim (though admitting more study is needed).
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...London: No child has been found to have passed coronavirus to an adult, a review of the evidence in partnership with the Royal College of Paediatrics has found.
Major studies into the impact of COVID-19 on young children suggest they "do not play a significant role" in spreading the virus and are less likely to become infected than adults.
link - ( New Window )
That sound you hear is every parent with a connection to the internet hitting send on an email to their school's administrator. If they could somehow verify this for the phased reopenings it would be a gamechanger.
"Honey, can I borrow your Venus razor? Kyle said a bunch of the guys are gonna go play Pretend Patriot and I really want to make a good impression."
"Honey, can I borrow your Venus razor? Kyle said a bunch of the guys are gonna go play Pretend Patriot and I really want to make a good impression."
he did a really good job coordinating his plate carrier with both his gun and his cargo pants. Matching colors on 3 different manufacturers is tough. Wonder how he got the grass stains on his knees.
By telling us our freedoms are in peril, they hide the true truth. The coming of an asteroid that will wipe out all life?
Like I get it, but this must be the absolute most embarrassing way to go about it.
All conspiracy theories have some twisted logic but the idea that they there is an intentional over-count from the numbers the gov is reporting seems especially so. Who would have both the means and motivation to do that? Hospitals? CDC? State Leaders?
Yea, I just don't get it. There are just so many people on Twitter that I've seen try to spread these conspiracy theories and repeat lies about Covid-19. It just bothers me seeing people with so much influence push dumb and dangerous conspiracies about this.
And I have no idea who tweeted that, but every article I see from big, reputable news sources has "emergency use" all over it.
Because of the exigent circumstances, the FDA does an accelerated review and approval during a declared public health emergency.
They do review it though, which is a different thing altogether which is a "notification" to the FDA which enables a manufacturer to use a test without any review at all or at least any substantive examination (which is what most of the antibody rapid test manufacturers. Hence, the variation in quality).
It is an "approval" although they can limit conditions of use. But it's still an approval.
It's a temporary one though. When the Public Health Emergency is declared to be over (an official declaration), the test or device can no longer be used; the approval has lapsed. At that point the manufacturer has to apply for and receive 510K approval and go through a traditional vetting in order for the test to continue to be used.
It is a a pretty big success and accomplishment though. For example,
at the top ismy personal baby (pats self on the back) - ( New Window )
Good one. Vanilla ISIS is another classic.
Last I checked, high schools typically go up to age 18.
As with so many aspects of the virus, more study is needed to verify, and figure out what age the non transmission thing extends to.
I think Cuomo is right to keep the schools closed. Get it figured out for the fall.
The analyst field should be booming. There's a lot of aspects to figure out.
I'd love to know how cashiers stack up to the general public in catching the virus. That would tell a lot about how to handle business opening.
Last I checked, high schools typically go up to age 18.
As with so many aspects of the virus, more study is needed to verify, and figure out what age the non transmission thing extends to.
I think Cuomo is right to keep the schools closed. Get it figured out for the fall.
The analyst field should be booming. There's a lot of aspects to figure out.
I'd love to know how cashiers stack up to the general public in catching the virus. That would tell a lot about how to handle business opening.
sort of interesting but Sweden closed high schools, but left their lower schools open. Not sure what the exact age breaks were between open/closed, but you are definitely right that this is likely only going to impact preschools and maybe elementary?
"Honey, can I borrow your Venus razor? Kyle said a bunch of the guys are gonna go play Pretend Patriot and I really want to make a good impression."
I like the fat chick. But really, all these pussies with their Bushies, internet camo and EDCs can go fuck themselves. If any of them wanted to really get some they’d be in a part of the world where people actually shoot back. Fucking phonies.
Link - ( New Window )
As the online publication UnHerd put it recently, “The debate about lockdown is not a contest between good and evil.” In that spirit, I would like to offer four contrarian arguments that, at the very least, ought to be taken more seriously.
Alternative ideas on what’s next... - ( New Window )
Could you imagine what would happen if these guys were minorities and storming a capital building with those weapons?
Not that I need or want to defend the President, trust me I do not want to, he says and does enough stupid shit.
[/quote]
Dude, lol, cmon. Who are you trying to kid? I mean, we read your posts, it's not like you're exactly opaque. I'm not opaque either, but at least I don't feign centrism
I am not angry with you, I feel pity for you (Sonic Youth, XBRONX, and probably others). Maybe someday you will find confidence and peace with yourself. Take up religion maybe, I don't know how you got to be grown men so filled with fear and depedence. No reason society has to be so nihilistic and divisive.
I don't answer to anyone on here, it's my self, my god, and my family.
read most of your posts. 90% of them are simply bullshit posted to divide, nothing constructive, nothing positive, nothing showing any sense of pride. It's a sad, miserable, existence you have had handed to you because you refuse to think for yourselves.
My god have mercy on your soul. whatever god you worship. I will pray for you.
Just trying to help you. Though it is tedious. I feel like John Bender trying to get Andrew Clark to see how vapid he is.
Show me one post, just one, where I "bury my head" just one. I can post many posts of you simply posting bullshit negative talking points that are as empty of substance as you are.
You hate our president that is fine but dont let it be brcause someone told you to hate him, make that opinion your own..
I have been wrong on this thread but it is my opinion, it is not infkuenced by anyone, it is my opinion..
You shouldnt hate someonr based on theirnopinion, jist because they do not view the same as you, doesnt mean heat should be brought in..
who cares if somrone is a dem or a republican, who gives a shit. We are all equal, you dont like someones opinion fine nothing wrong with that, but why does it matter what their political view is?
You hate our president that is fine but dont let it be brcause someone told you to hate him, make that opinion your own..
I have been wrong on this thread but it is my opinion, it is not infkuenced by anyone, it is my opinion..
You shouldnt hate someonr based on theirnopinion, jist because they do not view the same as you, doesnt mean heat should be brought in..
who cares if somrone is a dem or a republican, who gives a shit. We are all equal, you dont like someones opinion fine nothing wrong with that, but why does it matter what their political view is?
I certainly dont let mainstream media influence the way I think. I can pretty much see on my own that the man at the top is a total and utter buffoon.
It's perfectly fair for people to think Knight was a great coach, share many of his values, and accept his antics as the price of admission to coach their favorite team. It's also fair for anyone to believe the opposite that his behavior and all the nonsense was just a deal breaker. With so much in the public domain over decades directly from the horses mouth it would seem trivial to accuse anyone of needing the media to form the basis of their opinion.
Cut yourself off from it, thank me later.
You might want to evaluate whether opinions, intellectual conclusions, and responses you don't agree with or take seriously are the product of low thought effort or low intelligence thinkers and not a byproduct of where their news is consumed.
Lazy, unrefined, and boring opinions aren't reserved for homogeneous news consumers.
It takes a diversity of information and the intellectual honesty to dissect that information IMV.
I am not angry with you, I feel pity for you (Sonic Youth, XBRONX, and probably others). Maybe someday you will find confidence and peace with yourself. Take up religion maybe, I don't know how you got to be grown men so filled with fear and depedence. No reason society has to be so nihilistic and divisive.
I don't answer to anyone on here, it's my self, my god, and my family.
read most of your posts. 90% of them are simply bullshit posted to divide, nothing constructive, nothing positive, nothing showing any sense of pride. It's a sad, miserable, existence you have had handed to you because you refuse to think for yourselves.
My god have mercy on your soul. whatever god you worship. I will pray for you.
doesn't mean I think you're stupid or a dick.
Idiocy like this is what is so deeply wrong with politics in this country. Slap a label on everyone and then decide whether they are good or bad. My team is pure and good, your team is evil.
Is thinking really that difficult that it has to be avoided at all costs?
The argument went on a while because the young man was saying, hey, it’s really windy out here, we’re outside, and we understand the risks to each other but the women and the man kept laying into the high school grad. To the kids credit, he eventually said, have a great day and stay safe and just walked away.
Anyway, it all got me thinking. The older man and his wife were really rude and obnoxious but I have to admit I thought the same thing when I first saw all the kids together. On the other hand, this is still a free country and if a bunch of young people want to get together for a last chance graduation picture, that’s really up to them. I’m worried this covid is going to make a lot of people feel as if they have some right to tell others what to do and wear and that’s just not the case. The mrs and I had a long discussion on it on the way home. She basically said that it’s a public health emergency, and that true, but we are a nation of free people living under the rule of law and the government can’t just mandate that we can’t gather in large groups or that we must wear masks or gloves or whatever else.
Anyway... I don’t have any definitive answers b/c I see both sides but I think this is another reason the Swedish model makes so much more sense. This business of telling everyone what to do, shelter in place, wear a mask, etc... is not going to hold much longer. And I really hope we can avoid the cancel culture / righteousness that was displayed on the beach this morning. This is still a free country and if people don’t want to wear a mask I think that is going to have to be okay.
That's the sales pitch anyway. Whether that's the reality or not is another matter.
The Swedish model is NOT 'it's a free country, do whatever you want'.
There is one caveat though, if the hospitals start to get overrun all bets are off and you have to listen to the government..
@johnrobertsFox
·
7h
A Senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 Intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional.
@johnrobertsFox
·
7h
A Senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 Intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional.
HUGE grain of salt here. I wonder why no one else, outside of conspiracy quacks, has said anything like this. Sure, it's possible, but then most things are possible.
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
7h
A Senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 Intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional.
HUGE grain of salt here. I wonder why no one else, outside of conspiracy quacks, has said anything like this. Sure, it's possible, but then most things are possible.
Yea, this keeps popping up on one side. Waiting for it to be corroborated by some of the news sources leaning the other way. I don't rule it out either way.
That's the sales pitch anyway. Whether that's the reality or not is another matter.
The Swedish model is NOT 'it's a free country, do whatever you want'.
Sort of... I’m no expert on Swedish political science. But I found this bit interesting
It would seem Swedish public health officials determined the most Important thing was to protect the aged and people with certain existing health concerns. The data seems to support this approach as the overwhelming majority of deaths are among those over 70 and with comorbidities and a substantially smaller demographic of people under 70 but also with significant underlying health conditions. There are some outliers, an extremely small set of people who contract the virus, are young and seem healthy that die.
There also interesting data from Arkansas here in the US where I believe no stay at home order was ever issued and where there is similar infection and fatality to states that did issue stay at home.
Regardless, I don’t argue for anything goes. But this is a free country, and a nation of laws that are guaranteed by the Constitution. I think the approach the Swedish have taken makes more sense than our current course.
Who’s responsible for Swedish corona virus strategy - ( New Window )
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
7h
A Senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 Intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional.
HUGE grain of salt here. I wonder why no one else, outside of conspiracy quacks, has said anything like this. Sure, it's possible, but then most things are possible.
mistake that it leaked? or mistake that this was the determination?
In the tweet I posted it was from John Roberts. Yes, he works for Fox, but he spent most of his career with CBS and CNN and is married to an ABC White House correspondent, so let me understand how these conspiracies and untrustworthy sources work that what gets said by the person is immediately dismissed - because the average person on here just knows better.
John Roberts worked for CBS - when he did, you trust him
John Roberts worked for CNN = when he did, you trust him
John Roberts inducted into Canadian broadcasting HOF = at that time, you trusted him
John Roberts works for FOX = all of a sudden he's a right wing agenda pushing liar and conspirator?
Just want to make sure I understand which sources you are questioning. If it's John Roberts I would like an explanation, or if it's most of the 17 intelligence agencies you don't trust also please explain who would publish this story so that you do trust it.
Just CNN?
Roberts followed up the earlier tweet with this.
@johnrobertsFox
·
6h
Sources say not all 17 intelligence agencies agree that the lab was the source of the virus because there is not yet a definitive “smoking gun”. But confidence is high among 70-75% of the agencies.
I believe it's probably true. This isn't OANN or Breitbart.
According to Monroe County deputies, the 21-year-old woman said she and her father noticed the group of about 20 young people drinking on Wisteria Island, which is off Key West. They then confronted the group about social distancing."
I get that people should be distancing themselves and aphysical reaction is totally wrong. But this guy took a dingy over to this group of kids to yell at them. At some point he should have realized he is not the police, they're not listening and gotten himself and daughter out of there. I'd imagine there was a bunch of arguing first and the kids didn't just get the bat out.
The people in the story from Robert Moses got lucky the kids kept their cool. Kind of BS to be at the beach yourself and yell at others how they are doing it wrong. Call the cops if it's that bad or STFU. You need to accept that when you open all this stuff back up people are going to gather. Many people (morons) think this is bullshit and will flaunt not following the new rules, just bound to happen. If that's going to upset you stay home, I am.
instead, what do we get: deny, avoid, do nothing for as long as possible, then overreact and grossly restrict the free market and individual liberties, destroy the economy, livelihoods, and lives.
the US handling of this was botched from the start, but the panicked overreaction of locking everything down with nonsensical haphazard rules in place is far worse at this point.
i am in new mexico. went to go hiking the other day in the organ mountains. two of the three roads to access the trail systems were blocked off. just the one was still open.
how does funneling everyone into one area of the national monument help with social distancing. it doesn't. it has the opposite effect.
The systems we put in place were the right calls. But we need substantive exit policies.
The systems we put in place were the right calls. But we need substantive exit policies.
I mean, I’m happy to copy the whole Swedish way of life. But this is a wholly different argument. Still, are you asserting that because Sweden has a different tax structure somehow we couldn’t apply the same logic and reason here in the US?
Total aside - but on the matter of taxes, I think my effective tax rate is no higher than it would be in Sweden. Adding my federal, payroll, state income, sales tax and property tax along with all the hidden taxes of the state (registration, parking tickets, red light tickets, etc) amount to well over fifty percent of my income. And of course, because I’m not wealthy or some multinational corporation I actually have to pay my taxes. The real difference between here in NYC and Stockholm isn’t the amount of taxes I pay it’s the amount and quality of government services I am provided. They don’t go into debt sending their kids to college over there either. And they don’t go broken getting injured or sick either.
Anyway, on what to do next we could probably just call it the Arkansas model because they seem to have done the same down there. Protect the vulnerable, reinforce the healthcare system, provide guidelines for social distancing and let people make their own darn choices. It may not be cheap to live here and we may have universal healthcare but we’re still a free country and we’re still a nation of laws.
I almost went after the young man to tell him how well he adjudicated himself. The people on the beach were saying they took pictures and we’re gonna shame the kids on social media and just totally messing with the young grad. He didn’t swear at them or raise his voice or anything. But he stood his ground too and didn’t take any of their nonsense. I’m sure his parents raised him well and my wife said she knew the school were the grads were from because our kids play against their parish in CYO. Good school. Good families and good young citizens. Taking a grad picture on a sunny morning on the beach. I mean, what’s the big deal?
People need to mind their own business and stop being so afraid of this virus. It’s a serious situation, no doubt, but this is not the Black Plague or Ebola. And this is still America which is supposed to be a free nation.
instead, what do we get: deny, avoid, do nothing for as long as possible, then overreact and grossly restrict the free market and individual liberties, destroy the economy, livelihoods, and lives.
the US handling of this was botched from the start, but the panicked overreaction of locking everything down with nonsensical haphazard rules in place is far worse at this point.
i am in new mexico. went to go hiking the other day in the organ mountains. two of the three roads to access the trail systems were blocked off. just the one was still open.
how does funneling everyone into one area of the national monument help with social distancing. it doesn't. it has the opposite effect.
That's the sales pitch anyway. Whether that's the reality or not is another matter.
The Swedish model is NOT 'it's a free country, do whatever you want'.
The same ding dongs that advocate free market right now would shit themselves if we advocated the Swedish model for higher education, or government revenue, or taxation.
I wish a whole lot of people would stop reading that dumbass Ayn Rand and would actually read Coase’s lighthouse article, or would learn about externalities. It would actually make people semi-smart.
In the tweet I posted it was from John Roberts. Yes, he works for Fox, but he spent most of his career with CBS and CNN and is married to an ABC White House correspondent, so let me understand how these conspiracies and untrustworthy sources work that what gets said by the person is immediately dismissed - because the average person on here just knows better.
John Roberts worked for CBS - when he did, you trust him
John Roberts worked for CNN = when he did, you trust him
John Roberts inducted into Canadian broadcasting HOF = at that time, you trusted him
John Roberts works for FOX = all of a sudden he's a right wing agenda pushing liar and conspirator?
Just want to make sure I understand which sources you are questioning. If it's John Roberts I would like an explanation, or if it's most of the 17 intelligence agencies you don't trust also please explain who would publish this story so that you do trust it.
Just CNN?
Roberts followed up the earlier tweet with this.
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
6h
Sources say not all 17 intelligence agencies agree that the lab was the source of the virus because there is not yet a definitive “smoking gun”. But confidence is high among 70-75% of the agencies.
I believe it's probably true. This isn't OANN or Breitbart.
Curious that when you quote the mainstream media it's believable, but when others do, they're sheeple. Which one is it?
Facebook is a cesspool. It’s now moved to the Next Door Digest, tons of posts about people mad at everything including the sky.
Yeah that is BS, if a store tells you to wesr a mask you hsve to wesr a mask, and they have the right to kick you out..
it is the same as no shoes, no shirt no service
Quote:
has had to soften their rule about mandatory face masks in public after employees at stores and other places were accosted and the threatened for trying to enforce it. These highly intelligent women individuals claim it is their constitutional right to not wear a face mask. Nice.
Yeah that is BS, if a store tells you to wesr a mask you hsve to wesr a mask, and they have the right to kick you out..
it is the same as no shoes, no shirt no service
I agree, but the problem is, these stores are putting teenage kids making minimum wage at the door trying to stop people. I went to the grocery store the other day and they had like a 16 or 17 year old kid that was maybe 5’5” 140 lbs soaking wet standing there. Everyone that I seen had on masks but those employees didn’t sign up for that and quite frankly aren’t trained for that. It’s tough to put them in that position. How about a manager stand there and do that all day?
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In comment 14894399 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
has had to soften their rule about mandatory face masks in public after employees at stores and other places were accosted and the threatened for trying to enforce it. These highly intelligent women individuals claim it is their constitutional right to not wear a face mask. Nice.
Yeah that is BS, if a store tells you to wesr a mask you hsve to wesr a mask, and they have the right to kick you out..
it is the same as no shoes, no shirt no service
I agree, but the problem is, these stores are putting teenage kids making minimum wage at the door trying to stop people. I went to the grocery store the other day and they had like a 16 or 17 year old kid that was maybe 5’5” 140 lbs soaking wet standing there. Everyone that I seen had on masks but those employees didn’t sign up for that and quite frankly aren’t trained for that. It’s tough to put them in that position. How about a manager stand there and do that all day?
Agreed but people should not need someone to tell them to put on a mask, if there is a sign on a window it should be enough.
I went to shop rite the other day and ther was a guy arguing that he had to wait in line, i am like come on..
I believe it. And I wouldn’t have handled that situation as courteously as you probably did.
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for sitting on my front porch without a mask on, someone was walkong by who i didnt recognize and started telling me that i was going to catch it by going outside with no mask. Said i should wesr one at all times
I believe it. And I wouldn’t have handled that situation as courteously as you probably did.
My kids were right there, i couldnt go off like i wanted to.
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People are narcing on their neighbors and posting videos what they feel is bad behavior. I see it a lot on FB and it's seriously disturbing.
Facebook is a cesspool. It’s now moved to the Next Door Digest, tons of posts about people mad at everything including the sky.
In fairness, NDD on its best day is basically the worst of Facebook except that it's based on geography instead of your own self-selected friends/family/acquaintances.
John Roberts worked for CNN = when he did, you trust him
John Roberts inducted into Canadian broadcasting HOF = at that time, you trusted him
John Roberts works for FOX = all of a sudden he's a right wing agenda pushing liar and conspirator?
YES!! you figured out Fox News congrats!
Quote:
John Roberts or the intelligence agencies who feel the virus came from the lab (accidentally)?
In the tweet I posted it was from John Roberts. Yes, he works for Fox, but he spent most of his career with CBS and CNN and is married to an ABC White House correspondent, so let me understand how these conspiracies and untrustworthy sources work that what gets said by the person is immediately dismissed - because the average person on here just knows better.
John Roberts worked for CBS - when he did, you trust him
John Roberts worked for CNN = when he did, you trust him
John Roberts inducted into Canadian broadcasting HOF = at that time, you trusted him
John Roberts works for FOX = all of a sudden he's a right wing agenda pushing liar and conspirator?
Just want to make sure I understand which sources you are questioning. If it's John Roberts I would like an explanation, or if it's most of the 17 intelligence agencies you don't trust also please explain who would publish this story so that you do trust it.
Just CNN?
Roberts followed up the earlier tweet with this.
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
6h
Sources say not all 17 intelligence agencies agree that the lab was the source of the virus because there is not yet a definitive “smoking gun”. But confidence is high among 70-75% of the agencies.
I believe it's probably true. This isn't OANN or Breitbart.
Curious that when you quote the mainstream media it's believable, but when others do, they're sheeple. Which one is it?
I didn't cite the MSM because I find them believable, I cited them because YOU do.
Not sure how that is confusing to you.
Maybe you can simply tell me why that news coming from John Roberts needs to be taken with a grain of salt (or a HUGE grain of salt). Let's keep it simpler.
Or don't. You can believe what you want.
So I'd imagine the next update to the model is going to take the projected death toll through August up over 80k which I believe was the highest previous projection when it initially came out.
So I'd imagine the next update to the model is going to take the projected death toll through August up over 80k which I believe was the highest previous projection when it initially came out.
I don’t think there’s any realistic scenario where we are under 80K COVID deaths by the end of August. Over 100K looks like a near certainty and I’d bet we’re closer to 150K to 100K by then.
Cases in NY are declining but they are rising in the rest of the country and things are opening up. Most realistic outcome looks to be a plateau from roughly where we are now with daily new cases/deaths.
The same ding dongs that advocate free market right now would shit themselves if we advocated the Swedish model for higher education, or government revenue, or taxation.
I wish a whole lot of people would stop reading that dumbass Ayn Rand and would actually read Coase’s lighthouse article, or would learn about externalities. It would actually make people semi-smart.
I don’t know if this is for me? But I love me some econ talk (and I enjoy your posts as terrific and well considered food for thought), so I’ll bite. It’s been a while since I studied Coase but as far as I know his conclusions aren’t settled science. (And I mean this earnestly b/c I know he continued a few years after I earned my bachelors degree). Certainly better to read than Ayn Rand, (who I read in high school and now see as kind of silly but she had some excellent points as well especially about family), but you can find plenty of people that soundly reject Coase and his conclusions on light houses.
Regardless, the Swedish model doesn’t appear to me to be predicated on their economic organization, at least not wholly so, and it’s also not entirely clear that it’s enabled by their social services. That’s why I point out the Arkansas response here. Asa Hutchinson and seven or so other governors basically did what the Swedes have done. And, so far at least, the state of Arkansas seems to have fared no worse than those around the country with similar demographic profiles. I’m not interested in assailing the response of any particular agency, or state or party, I’m just saying that now we know more and should adjust accordingly. NYC and surrounding area (my home) seems to be an edge case and needs to treated as such.
But I don’t think upstate New York needs to have similar shelter in place and social distancing imposed. Nor do I think the rest of the country needs NYC style precautions. The thing about the Swedish model that is really important to grasp is that sustainability was a key component. And I think we in America are either already past or fast approaching the point where shelter in place and drastic social distancing is no longer sustainable.
Finally, regardless of the approach, we need to get back to work. As you are very clearly learned in the dismal science, you must also know that our darkest days are still just before us. The trillions passed by congress were sort of like shooting four or five of our six bullets into the dark and well before the beast was even near. The real suffering won’t be for those deceased by the covid 19 / Wuhan China virus but for the rest of us left to dig out of the depressed global economy.
And a business has every right to deny service to those that don't follow their simple rules.
Now this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-count-toward-the-covid-19-death-toll-it-depends-on-the-state/2020/04/16/bca84ae0-7991-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html. Kicker, too. What do you make of this statistician's nightmare?
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the WHO data officially reported almost 3k deaths in the 24 hour period Thurs/Fri - which is the highest recorded day by a lot. I've tracked the IHME model since it went up and it's been mostly accurate, but it definitely seems like they either overestimated the sharp downslope post peak or overestimated our social distancing measures effectiveness because they had projected the peak 18 days ago. Their last update was on April 29th and the highest projected daily death total from that update projected 1300 on April 30th, declining each day through the rest of May and totaled 72k by August.
So I'd imagine the next update to the model is going to take the projected death toll through August up over 80k which I believe was the highest previous projection when it initially came out.
I don’t think there’s any realistic scenario where we are under 80K COVID deaths by the end of August. Over 100K looks like a near certainty and I’d bet we’re closer to 150K to 100K by then.
Cases in NY are declining but they are rising in the rest of the country and things are opening up. Most realistic outcome looks to be a plateau from roughly where we are now with daily new cases/deaths.
Yeah that seems to be the way things are trending, that's why the opening/re-opening conversation is such a fine line to walk even in places not yet hit all that hard. Even with all that we are doing the baseline is significant.
It's such a simple requirement that is an odd item to flip out about. I get that people are fed up with the massive shutdown, but the sooner everyone complies with the simple stuff, the sooner the more onerous stuff will get lifted, and the more serious others will take you in your legitimate complaints.
It's like trying to get people lined up for a picture. Everyone wants to stand around uncooperative and bitching about how long it takes.
And a business has every right to deny service to those that don't follow their simple rules.
If i am walking in my neigborhood or playiny outside with my kids i am not putting a mask on..
If i am going to the store i would absokutely out a mask on..
I got a cooling neck gaiter and it functions pretty well running - you can just slide up/down as you encounter people. I generally only do that if I'm getting close to someone. I got one from a company called mission who seems to be sold out of everything but I'm sure there are other brands.
Counter-intuitively, some countries where authorities reacted late and with spotty enforcement of lockdowns appear to have been spared. Cambodia and Laos both had brief spates of infections when few social distancing measures were in place but neither has recorded a new case in about three weeks.
Lebanon, whose Muslim and Christian citizens often go on pilgrimages respectively to Iran and Italy, places rife with the virus, should have had high numbers of infections. It has not.
“We just didn’t see what we were expecting,” said Dr. Roy Nasnas, an infectious disease consultant at the University Hospital Geitaoui in Beirut. “We don’t know why.”
Article in today’s NYT. With many, many smart people looking at data and spending all of their professional time and resources trying to figure out how the disease spreads, no one really knows.
China virus riddle... - ( New Window )
It's such a simple requirement that is an odd item to flip out about. I get that people are fed up with the massive shutdown, but the sooner everyone complies with the simple stuff, the sooner the more onerous stuff will get lifted, and the more serious others will take you in your legitimate complaints.
It's like trying to get people lined up for a picture. Everyone wants to stand around uncooperative and bitching about how long it takes.
But, just from the car, I can see plenty of people out for what they consider a leisurely stroll, with no mask. They take up the when sidewalk, ornpass in close enough proximity to you that it is an issue. People jogging on the sidewalk with no mask spraying their sweaty spittle breath...but sure we are inconveniencing them. Too many alsondont get that the masks are primarily to protect others, not the mask wearer. So people who claim they wear no mask because they are immune or have no symptoms or whatever are missing the point that they could very well be carrying and spreading the virus.
I'm sorry it's such an inconvenience for some people to put a mask on. But it's not about you. It's about protecting the greater good. And as long as people continue to ignore this, think they are fine, think they are above the fray, etc. the longer we may have these measures in place.
And, opening up does NOT mean we are in the clear. The virus will continue to spread, just at a slower rate, in part because so many people were already exposed. It is probably a year or more before we actually have a vaccine, which is the only way we will seemingly end the virus.
Quote:
These same people happily comply with being forced to wear shirts and shoes.
It's such a simple requirement that is an odd item to flip out about. I get that people are fed up with the massive shutdown, but the sooner everyone complies with the simple stuff, the sooner the more onerous stuff will get lifted, and the more serious others will take you in your legitimate complaints.
It's like trying to get people lined up for a picture. Everyone wants to stand around uncooperative and bitching about how long it takes.
Exactly. Thank you. I haven't taken a single walk for leisure in over 7 weeks. I exercise in my home. I wear a mask every time I leave the house, including to take out the garbage.
But, just from the car, I can see plenty of people out for what they consider a leisurely stroll, with no mask. They take up the when sidewalk, ornpass in close enough proximity to you that it is an issue. People jogging on the sidewalk with no mask spraying their sweaty spittle breath...but sure we are inconveniencing them. Too many alsondont get that the masks are primarily to protect others, not the mask wearer. So people who claim they wear no mask because they are immune or have no symptoms or whatever are missing the point that they could very well be carrying and spreading the virus.
Where do you live?
If you live in a neighborhood you dont go for a walk? it is very easy to stay away from people in a neighborhood...
if you are in the city that is a different story..
Where do you live?
If you live in a neighborhood you dont go for a walk? it is very easy to stay away from people in a neighborhood...
if you are in the city that is a different story..
And, I admit to being sensitive about this because I haven't left my house for leisure in weeks as I had a mild case of COVID. Today is the first time and I am sitting in a private gated courtyard...we are all wearing masks. Yeah, it sucks. But, it isn't really hard and it is necessary.
2) I can swear to you that I'm 'that guy' when walking or running outside. I don't get near anybody. I'm more likely to get hit by a car than get within 10 feet of anyone.
3) The problem with 'Everyone must wear a mask!' is that, for awhile, there was a lot of confusion about that. Yes, wear a mask. Actually, no don't. I'm assuming it was in part so people wouldn't hoard them & deprive them for hospital workers. And a lot of people don't follow the news all that closely & probably saw the 'No. Don't wear a mask' bit & never followed up.
Yes, if you go to a grocery store/liquor store/Home Depot, wear a mask. Yes, 100%.
But if I'm taking a stroll & practicing social distancing, do I have to wear one? I don't believe so.
Anyways, I hope you feel better.
Quote:
In comment 14894091 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
John Roberts or the intelligence agencies who feel the virus came from the lab (accidentally)?
In the tweet I posted it was from John Roberts. Yes, he works for Fox, but he spent most of his career with CBS and CNN and is married to an ABC White House correspondent, so let me understand how these conspiracies and untrustworthy sources work that what gets said by the person is immediately dismissed - because the average person on here just knows better.
John Roberts worked for CBS - when he did, you trust him
John Roberts worked for CNN = when he did, you trust him
John Roberts inducted into Canadian broadcasting HOF = at that time, you trusted him
John Roberts works for FOX = all of a sudden he's a right wing agenda pushing liar and conspirator?
Just want to make sure I understand which sources you are questioning. If it's John Roberts I would like an explanation, or if it's most of the 17 intelligence agencies you don't trust also please explain who would publish this story so that you do trust it.
Just CNN?
Roberts followed up the earlier tweet with this.
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
6h
Sources say not all 17 intelligence agencies agree that the lab was the source of the virus because there is not yet a definitive “smoking gun”. But confidence is high among 70-75% of the agencies.
I believe it's probably true. This isn't OANN or Breitbart.
Curious that when you quote the mainstream media it's believable, but when others do, they're sheeple. Which one is it?
I didn't cite the MSM because I find them believable, I cited them because YOU do.
Not sure how that is confusing to you.
Maybe you can simply tell me why that news coming from John Roberts needs to be taken with a grain of salt (or a HUGE grain of salt). Let's keep it simpler.
Or don't. You can believe what you want.
Perhaps you're confused, but I've mDE ZERO CLAIMS PRO OR CON REGARDING THE MSM. I was just curious at your use of a clear double standard, followed up by a very obvious attempt to deflect. So which is it, MSM good, or MSM bad? Your cake is waiting for your answer.
we get protecting others, i get wearing a mask when you go to the store or going to encounter other peoplr and social distsncing would be hard BUT..
why do we have to wear a mask when we leave our house to take the garbage out? why do i have to wear a mask sitting on my front porch? I just spent all day outside doing work, my kids played outsidr i did not wear a mask...
I understand the mask in a store but outside unless you are spitting in someones face, i dont think, could be wrong, but i dont think it is that easy to transfer to another person
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In comment 14894365 BMac said:
Quote:
In comment 14894091 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
John Roberts or the intelligence agencies who feel the virus came from the lab (accidentally)?
In the tweet I posted it was from John Roberts. Yes, he works for Fox, but he spent most of his career with CBS and CNN and is married to an ABC White House correspondent, so let me understand how these conspiracies and untrustworthy sources work that what gets said by the person is immediately dismissed - because the average person on here just knows better.
John Roberts worked for CBS - when he did, you trust him
John Roberts worked for CNN = when he did, you trust him
John Roberts inducted into Canadian broadcasting HOF = at that time, you trusted him
John Roberts works for FOX = all of a sudden he's a right wing agenda pushing liar and conspirator?
Just want to make sure I understand which sources you are questioning. If it's John Roberts I would like an explanation, or if it's most of the 17 intelligence agencies you don't trust also please explain who would publish this story so that you do trust it.
Just CNN?
Roberts followed up the earlier tweet with this.
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
6h
Sources say not all 17 intelligence agencies agree that the lab was the source of the virus because there is not yet a definitive “smoking gun”. But confidence is high among 70-75% of the agencies.
I believe it's probably true. This isn't OANN or Breitbart.
Curious that when you quote the mainstream media it's believable, but when others do, they're sheeple. Which one is it?
I didn't cite the MSM because I find them believable, I cited them because YOU do.
Not sure how that is confusing to you.
Maybe you can simply tell me why that news coming from John Roberts needs to be taken with a grain of salt (or a HUGE grain of salt). Let's keep it simpler.
Or don't. You can believe what you want.
Perhaps you're confused, but I've mDE ZERO CLAIMS PRO OR CON REGARDING THE MSM. I was just curious at your use of a clear double standard, followed up by a very obvious attempt to deflect. So which is it, MSM good, or MSM bad? Your cake is waiting for your answer.
Sorry for the apparent yelling. Merely a slip of the digits that get less and less useful with advancing age.
I heard someone - think it was Sam Harris - talking about our next steps and recalling 9/11. After 9/11, all we really needed to do in terms of air safety was to harden the cockpit door, prevent knives onboard and increase access procedures and step up passenger screening. Many of us argued we should have reason based profiling such that which has and still is practiced by El Al. But instead we went to this huge TSA and DHS model which many argue isn’t very effective and especially so when weighing the many costs.
So, we need to take action and be smart but too much fear is probably going to lead to an overreach and over reaction and that may have lasting unintended and unwanted consequences.
Regardless, the real problem now is the global economy. And the sooner we get back to work the sooner we’ll start to dig out of this depression.
Same for a walk or jog. You are breathing everywhere. If you take a deep, breath, cough, sneeze, gag, sweat, whatever, you are potentially spreading the virus. Again, is it guaranteed? No. But, if EVERYONE took these measures EVERY DAY, we would be in a much better place.
I have to say, we live in a normally very socially conscious neighborhood, and yet, about half the people we have seen in the last 2 weeks have no mask or a mask around their neck. Great. Thanks.
Also, there are many ways in NYC I could have contracted the virus. But, lack of awareness likely played a part. For example, the week before I got sick, there at least 2 people in my building who work for other departments that showed up all week with symptoms. They didn't think to stay home and they weren't sent home like organization policy states. At least one of them tested positive the following week. Did I contract it from one of them? Who knows? But, it certainly increased the odds of me and everyone else in the building.
Quote:
the WHO data officially reported almost 3k deaths in the 24 hour period Thurs/Fri - which is the highest recorded day by a lot. I've tracked the IHME model since it went up and it's been mostly accurate, but it definitely seems like they either overestimated the sharp downslope post peak or overestimated our social distancing measures effectiveness because they had projected the peak 18 days ago. Their last update was on April 29th and the highest projected daily death total from that update projected 1300 on April 30th, declining each day through the rest of May and totaled 72k by August.
So I'd imagine the next update to the model is going to take the projected death toll through August up over 80k which I believe was the highest previous projection when it initially came out.
I don’t think there’s any realistic scenario where we are under 80K COVID deaths by the end of August. Over 100K looks like a near certainty and I’d bet we’re closer to 150K to 100K by then.
Cases in NY are declining but they are rising in the rest of the country and things are opening up. Most realistic outcome looks to be a plateau from roughly where we are now with daily new cases/deaths.
the US may well be over 100K deaths by the end. of august, but it is false that cases are rising in the rest of the country.
in all US states case are, and have been, declining.
look at the by-state data, updated as of may 2
COVID cases declining in every US state - ( New Window )
I heard someone - think it was Sam Harris - talking about our next steps and recalling 9/11. After 9/11, all we really needed to do in terms of air safety was to harden the cockpit door, prevent knives onboard and increase access procedures and step up passenger screening. Many of us argued we should have reason based profiling such that which has and still is practiced by El Al. But instead we went to this huge TSA and DHS model which many argue isn’t very effective and especially so when weighing the many costs.
So, we need to take action and be smart but too much fear is probably going to lead to an overreach and over reaction and that may have lasting unintended and unwanted consequences.
Regardless, the real problem now is the global economy. And the sooner we get back to work the sooner we’ll start to dig out of this depression.
If you're alone, I don't see what the big deal is about masks.
But I drove by a soccer field today and it was full up of people playing soccer, playing football, just hanging in out. And when I drove into my neighborhood there were a bunch of people with chairs in the road having a coffee klatch (well, not coffee, actually). To me, that's criminal.
Aside from the malicious intent, I don't see much difference between them and the people found to have been intentionally having unprotected sex with, or bleeding on, someone knowing that they are shedding HIV.
Actually, it's mostly ignorance.
Same for a walk or jog. You are breathing everywhere. If you take a deep, breath, cough, sneeze, gag, sweat, whatever, you are potentially spreading the virus. Again, is it guaranteed? No. But, if EVERYONE took these measures EVERY DAY, we would be in a much better place.
I have to say, we live in a normally very socially conscious neighborhood, and yet, about half the people we have seen in the last 2 weeks have no mask or a mask around their neck. Great. Thanks.
Also, there are many ways in NYC I could have contracted the virus. But, lack of awareness likely played a part. For example, the week before I got sick, there at least 2 people in my building who work for other departments that showed up all week with symptoms. They didn't think to stay home and they weren't sent home like organization policy states. At least one of them tested positive the following week. Did I contract it from one of them? Who knows? But, it certainly increased the odds of me and everyone else in the building.
dont most garbabe men wear gloves already?
Quote:
The virus has been shown to survive for varying lengths depending on the surface. So, you take out your garbage and potentially spread your aerosol spray on the can. When the sanitation worker collects the garbage he is haning that can. It is just one measure to try to slow the spread.
Same for a walk or jog. You are breathing everywhere. If you take a deep, breath, cough, sneeze, gag, sweat, whatever, you are potentially spreading the virus. Again, is it guaranteed? No. But, if EVERYONE took these measures EVERY DAY, we would be in a much better place.
I have to say, we live in a normally very socially conscious neighborhood, and yet, about half the people we have seen in the last 2 weeks have no mask or a mask around their neck. Great. Thanks.
Also, there are many ways in NYC I could have contracted the virus. But, lack of awareness likely played a part. For example, the week before I got sick, there at least 2 people in my building who work for other departments that showed up all week with symptoms. They didn't think to stay home and they weren't sent home like organization policy states. At least one of them tested positive the following week. Did I contract it from one of them? Who knows? But, it certainly increased the odds of me and everyone else in the building.
dont most garbabe men wear gloves already?
So should we trust the CDC’s numbers ? Not so fast. CDC’s number are only as good as what the states are telling them. Here is the link for the State of California dept of Health reporting on Los Angeles county:
https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Public?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no
And here is the link for the Los Angeles Department of health reporting on themselves:
http://dashboard.publichealth.lacounty.gov/covid19_surveillance_dashboard/
The Los Angeles local cumulative numbers are a little higher for cases and deaths than what the state is reporting. Thats understandable. There may be a lag in what the county reports to the state, but look at the daily numbers for the last half of April. The Los Angeles local numbers have been flat for the second half of April until last week when they dropped off a cliff. The State of California number are showing the opposite . They are showing a huge spike in cases and deaths ( except for May 2 ). Why is this happening ? , This is what is being reported in the papers and this is the garbage being forwarded to the CDC. I’ve seen the same pattern for other counties. In California it may just be bureaucratic incompetence, but the same can’t be said for New York. The CDC points out the New York has decided to go back and inflate the numbers by reviewing previous deaths and adding them if they “probably” died of COVID. I guess Cuomo figures he’ll get more fed money this way, but what ever “new” numbers that are reported are probably going to be interpreted as current numbers.
I saw something on fb that said (paraphrasing): COVID spreads due to the density of people and COVID spreads because of the density of people.
In essence, people suck.
Central Park on the other hand...uh, no.
Quote:
It's fucking ridiculous already. It doesn't matter that the weather is nice. Stay the fuck inside. If you feel the need to go out, limit yourself to a stroll in the neighborhood.
I saw something on fb that said (paraphrasing): COVID spreads due to the density of people and COVID spreads because of the density of people.
In essence, people suck.
So many parents on FB asking for places to go to get out of the house. The whole fucking point is stay in your house.
Central Park on the other hand...uh, no.
This is where we should follow the Swedish model. The one town spread a ton of chicken manure in the public park to inhibit the use of the space for public gatherings.
If you are walking on a sidewalk & you see someone walking in your direction, cross the street.
People need to get outside for mental & physical reasons. Everyone is going stir crazy. I went for my daily 2 45 minute walks & 40 minute run today. I maintained social distancing & didn't get with 10 feet of anyone.
And, stay at home orders being compared to the Holocaust? How much more ridiculous can we get?
If you are walking on a sidewalk & you see someone walking in your direction, cross the street.
People need to get outside for mental & physical reasons. Everyone is going stir crazy. I went for my daily 2 45 minute walks & 40 minute run today. I maintained social distancing & didn't get with 10 feet of anyone.
If you are walking on a sidewalk & you see someone walking in your direction, cross the street.
People need to get outside for mental & physical reasons. Everyone is going stir crazy. I went for my daily 2 45 minute walks & 40 minute run today. I maintained social distancing & didn't get with 10 feet of anyone.
exactly dont really understand why peoplr are making a big deal about this..
You walk outside you dont need a mask, if you are going to a store or somewhere with a lot of people out a mask on..
it is really that simple, telling people to wear a mask in their own neighorhood is a little much..
practice social distancing and when you cant put on a mask, it is really that simple
Quote:
Just be responsible when you go outside & maintain social distancing.
If you are walking on a sidewalk & you see someone walking in your direction, cross the street.
People need to get outside for mental & physical reasons. Everyone is going stir crazy. I went for my daily 2 45 minute walks & 40 minute run today. I maintained social distancing & didn't get with 10 feet of anyone.
That is an attempt to be responsible while outside. Making social visits, going to parks, outings, etc. are all problematic.
so me going to my grandmothers on her birthday and wishing her a happy birthday while she sat on her porch and we were in her driveway is problematic..
my in laws coming to see their grandchildren while the kids sit on the front step and they stay in the driveway is problematic?
Quote:
Just be responsible when you go outside & maintain social distancing.
If you are walking on a sidewalk & you see someone walking in your direction, cross the street.
People need to get outside for mental & physical reasons. Everyone is going stir crazy. I went for my daily 2 45 minute walks & 40 minute run today. I maintained social distancing & didn't get with 10 feet of anyone.
exactly dont really understand why peoplr are making a big deal about this..
You walk outside you dont need a mask, if you are going to a store or somewhere with a lot of people out a mask on..
it is really that simple, telling people to wear a mask in their own neighorhood is a little much..
practice social distancing and when you cant put on a mask, it is really that simple
Quote:
In comment 14894988 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Just be responsible when you go outside & maintain social distancing.
If you are walking on a sidewalk & you see someone walking in your direction, cross the street.
People need to get outside for mental & physical reasons. Everyone is going stir crazy. I went for my daily 2 45 minute walks & 40 minute run today. I maintained social distancing & didn't get with 10 feet of anyone.
exactly dont really understand why peoplr are making a big deal about this..
You walk outside you dont need a mask, if you are going to a store or somewhere with a lot of people out a mask on..
it is really that simple, telling people to wear a mask in their own neighorhood is a little much..
practice social distancing and when you cant put on a mask, it is really that simple
What difference does it make that it's your neighborhood? The virus won't spread because you feel comfortable in that environment?
If i am walking with my famiky alonr why should i put on a mask? i keep my distance from anyone else..
Quote:
In comment 14894997 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14894988 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Just be responsible when you go outside & maintain social distancing.
If you are walking on a sidewalk & you see someone walking in your direction, cross the street.
People need to get outside for mental & physical reasons. Everyone is going stir crazy. I went for my daily 2 45 minute walks & 40 minute run today. I maintained social distancing & didn't get with 10 feet of anyone.
exactly dont really understand why peoplr are making a big deal about this..
You walk outside you dont need a mask, if you are going to a store or somewhere with a lot of people out a mask on..
it is really that simple, telling people to wear a mask in their own neighorhood is a little much..
practice social distancing and when you cant put on a mask, it is really that simple
What difference does it make that it's your neighborhood? The virus won't spread because you feel comfortable in that environment?
If i am walking with my famiky alonr why should i put on a mask? i keep my distance from anyone else..
But this idea that people can't leave their house...I don't get it. People need fresh air. Just be responsible & practice social distancing.
Quote:
Look at Florida. Just recently it was revealed that only residents were counted. If a transplant from New York got sick/died, they weren't reported in Florida's figures as the assumption was that Florida was only responsible for Florida's residents.
I'd like to see a link on that, because on its face that allegation doesn't pass the smell test. If someone flew down to Florida checked into a hotel and dropped dead, I can see that being misreported, but that represents very few people. Most New Yorkers who spend the winter there have a residence there. That means they pay utilities in Florida. If they're like many snowbirds they have Florida plates to lower their insurance. If anything their deaths are inflating Florida's numbers.
Towards the end of the article is this quote:
A spokesperson for the health department’s Hillsborough County office said a lag in reporting accounts for some of the difference. The health department is also excluding some snowbirds and other seasonal residents, along with visitors who died in Florida, from its count. The medical examiners are including anyone who died in Florida.
As the death toll has climbed in Florida, the difference between the two counts has become controversial.
Florida's Covid Counting Discrepancy - ( New Window )
Again I didn't see the Battery Park photos but could possibly most of the people that were close be small tight groups of family members throughout the park?
Quote:
In comment 14895000 Matt M. said:
Quote:
In comment 14894997 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
In comment 14894988 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
Just be responsible when you go outside & maintain social distancing.
If you are walking on a sidewalk & you see someone walking in your direction, cross the street.
People need to get outside for mental & physical reasons. Everyone is going stir crazy. I went for my daily 2 45 minute walks & 40 minute run today. I maintained social distancing & didn't get with 10 feet of anyone.
exactly dont really understand why peoplr are making a big deal about this..
You walk outside you dont need a mask, if you are going to a store or somewhere with a lot of people out a mask on..
it is really that simple, telling people to wear a mask in their own neighorhood is a little much..
practice social distancing and when you cant put on a mask, it is really that simple
What difference does it make that it's your neighborhood? The virus won't spread because you feel comfortable in that environment?
If i am walking with my famiky alonr why should i put on a mask? i keep my distance from anyone else..
And nobody ever tries to walk past you? And you don't leave an aerosol trail you aren't aware of because it is your neighborhood with your family?
Guess what we wall to the other side or they do, it is really that simple..
and do you think it just sits in the air outside? the droplets fall to the ground
But this idea that people can't leave their house...I don't get it. People need fresh air. Just be responsible & practice social distancing.
Again, be smart. You can go outside. Just practice social distancing. Try to stay as far away from others as you can.
You as well. Hopefully this will all behind us by September & this thread will be archived.
Quote:
I hope you and your neighborhood stay healthy.
You as well. Hopefully this will all behind us by September & this thread will be archived.
Obviously that was during a world war where people were on top of each other.
Please explain to me why it's okay to go to Home Depot to buy certain items but others are off limits.
Why is okay to go out on a lake in a row boat but not a gas powered boat?
It's when these Governors over reach people will protest. And rightly so.
Quote:
In comment 14894864 Matt M. said:
Quote:
The virus has been shown to survive for varying lengths depending on the surface. So, you take out your garbage and potentially spread your aerosol spray on the can. When the sanitation worker collects the garbage he is haning that can. It is just one measure to try to slow the spread.
Same for a walk or jog. You are breathing everywhere. If you take a deep, breath, cough, sneeze, gag, sweat, whatever, you are potentially spreading the virus. Again, is it guaranteed? No. But, if EVERYONE took these measures EVERY DAY, we would be in a much better place.
I have to say, we live in a normally very socially conscious neighborhood, and yet, about half the people we have seen in the last 2 weeks have no mask or a mask around their neck. Great. Thanks.
Also, there are many ways in NYC I could have contracted the virus. But, lack of awareness likely played a part. For example, the week before I got sick, there at least 2 people in my building who work for other departments that showed up all week with symptoms. They didn't think to stay home and they weren't sent home like organization policy states. At least one of them tested positive the following week. Did I contract it from one of them? Who knows? But, it certainly increased the odds of me and everyone else in the building.
dont most garbabe men wear gloves already?
Yeah, and those gloves touch their truck, the next can, their clothes, etc. Why is this so difficult?
Have you seen garbage trucks they are disgusting and likely already covered in bacteria.its also garbage it likely already has bacteria on it from the food that gets thrown out so all the time. Unless you cough on the garbage can its really not a big deal
you too hope you and yours is safe and healthy..
I'm sorry it's such an inconvenience for some people to put a mask on. But it's not about you. It's about protecting the greater good. And as long as people continue to ignore this, think they are fine, think they are above the fray, etc. the longer we may have these measures in place.
in the tristate area the measures will stay in place much longer.. upstate is opening stuff up on the 15th since we had way less cases
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Every person I've seen interviewed about running or post on Facebook or here says they exercise social distancing. But, out on the street, I haven't seen more than a handful of runners actually do so. Almost every one is running on the sidewalk, running past people left and right, where there is less than 2 feet between them and no mask.
I'm sorry it's such an inconvenience for some people to put a mask on. But it's not about you. It's about protecting the greater good. And as long as people continue to ignore this, think they are fine, think they are above the fray, etc. the longer we may have these measures in place.
in the tristate area the measures will stay in place much longer.. upstate is opening stuff up on the 15th since we had way less cases
At least, until they open stuff up.
But that’s based on little more than my pot-bellied gut.
Please explain to me why it's okay to go to Home Depot to buy certain items but others are off limits.
Why is okay to go out on a lake in a row boat but not a gas powered boat?
It's when these Governors over reach people will protest. And rightly so.
You think these pathetic incel losers are protesting boat motors? Alrighty then...
The fear porn produced to get everyone to sign onto the '2 weeks to flatten the curve' (lol what happened to that as it turned into indefinite weeks to ???) is now having the opposite effect as most people have brains and recognize that a. we aren't containing this since it arrived on our shores months before any of the restrictions were put in b. It's not as deadly as feared (this is good news) and c. the notion that we're going to continue sheltered in place for a year plus until a vaccine or whatever else panacea is dreamed up is so offensively stupid people who suggest it should be tarred and feathered.
The destruction this insanely overzealous reaction has caused to our economy, people's livelihoods and ultimately the toll in lives is going to be an order of magnitude worse than the coronavirus death count. Every politician that has made themselves the story here needs to be held to account for there capricious, often unconstitutional rules and enforcement. I can only dream of them getting the justice they deserve.
Also, every privileged asshole who does not realize that 35 million of their countrymen are out of work and facing existential crises from something that almost entirely affects the elderly or co-morbid needs to shut the fuck up with their chiding. Yet Matt M thinks it'd be humorous if they got ill and died, and Chris In Philly shares his height of wit insult 'incel' - What fine morale arbiters!
Thanks to people like Matt M you'll be wearing a mask in grocery stores the rest of your life. 9/11 was 20 years ago and we're still taking our shoes off every flight - surrendering everything in times of trouble, the horse never gets put back in the barn. Yes, Bill L, not wearing a mask is like having unprotected AIDS sex. Fearful fucking imbeciles - I'm glad your dull lives are effectively unchanged being consigned to Netflix and couch farts interminably, but it's not really defensible given the realities on the ground.
Unless you think we should never allow international travel again, sports, concerts, meeting new people, dating, school and just about everything normal life entails, eventually we're going to have to take this on the chin a little bit. The whole point was that we all stayed inside to let our medical facilities not be overwhelmed - well, its been two months and not only are they not overwhelmed everywhere, they're actually underwhelmed and facing funding crises as they have delayed all other procedures for the corona wave that never came. How many people have died or are suffering because they can't get other medical treatment? What about the report of the stress this has done to the global food supply chain that will likely cause starvation in poor nations?
Look forward to the smarmy snark in the replies.
The fear porn produced to get everyone to sign onto the '2 weeks to flatten the curve' (lol what happened to that as it turned into indefinite weeks to ???) is now having the opposite effect as most people have brains and recognize that a. we aren't containing this since it arrived on our shores months before any of the restrictions were put in b. It's not as deadly as feared (this is good news) and c. the notion that we're going to continue sheltered in place for a year plus until a vaccine or whatever else panacea is dreamed up is so offensively stupid people who suggest it should be tarred and feathered.
The destruction this insanely overzealous reaction has caused to our economy, people's livelihoods and ultimately the toll in lives is going to be an order of magnitude worse than the coronavirus death count. Every politician that has made themselves the story here needs to be held to account for there capricious, often unconstitutional rules and enforcement. I can only dream of them getting the justice they deserve.
Also, every privileged asshole who does not realize that 35 million of their countrymen are out of work and facing existential crises from something that almost entirely affects the elderly or co-morbid needs to shut the fuck up with their chiding. Yet Matt M thinks it'd be humorous if they got ill and died, and Chris In Philly shares his height of wit insult 'incel' - What fine morale arbiters!
Thanks to people like Matt M you'll be wearing a mask in grocery stores the rest of your life. 9/11 was 20 years ago and we're still taking our shoes off every flight - surrendering everything in times of trouble, the horse never gets put back in the barn. Yes, Bill L, not wearing a mask is like having unprotected AIDS sex. Fearful fucking imbeciles - I'm glad your dull lives are effectively unchanged being consigned to Netflix and couch farts interminably, but it's not really defensible given the realities on the ground.
Unless you think we should never allow international travel again, sports, concerts, meeting new people, dating, school and just about everything normal life entails, eventually we're going to have to take this on the chin a little bit. The whole point was that we all stayed inside to let our medical facilities not be overwhelmed - well, its been two months and not only are they not overwhelmed everywhere, they're actually underwhelmed and facing funding crises as they have delayed all other procedures for the corona wave that never came. How many people have died or are suffering because they can't get other medical treatment? What about the report of the stress this has done to the global food supply chain that will likely cause starvation in poor nations?
Look forward to the smarmy snark in the replies.
Thankfully, we are getting to a point where the spread is slowing enough to begin planning to re-open things. But, not if we have people who will willfully ignore the regulations that will be in place.
Quote:
Have you looked at restrictions put in place in Michigan? Most people, even evil conservatives will obay reasonable restrictions. But when the government overreaches they will squawk.
Please explain to me why it's okay to go to Home Depot to buy certain items but others are off limits.
Why is okay to go out on a lake in a row boat but not a gas powered boat?
It's when these Governors over reach people will protest. And rightly so.
You think these pathetic incel losers are protesting boat motors? Alrighty then...
It really is some of the most ignorant arguments I have ever seen. Go for it morons, congregate, party, break out motor boats and tie them up together, hug each other, stand side-by-side in your evangelical churches. Just don't come begging for help when that idiocy backfires.
Please do so because we really need to winnow out the stupid.
The fear porn produced to get everyone to sign onto the '2 weeks to flatten the curve' (lol what happened to that as it turned into indefinite weeks to ???) is now having the opposite effect as most people have brains and recognize that a. we aren't containing this since it arrived on our shores months before any of the restrictions were put in b. It's not as deadly as feared (this is good news) and c. the notion that we're going to continue sheltered in place for a year plus until a vaccine or whatever else panacea is dreamed up is so offensively stupid people who suggest it should be tarred and feathered.
The destruction this insanely overzealous reaction has caused to our economy, people's livelihoods and ultimately the toll in lives is going to be an order of magnitude worse than the coronavirus death count. Every politician that has made themselves the story here needs to be held to account for there capricious, often unconstitutional rules and enforcement. I can only dream of them getting the justice they deserve.
Also, every privileged asshole who does not realize that 35 million of their countrymen are out of work and facing existential crises from something that almost entirely affects the elderly or co-morbid needs to shut the fuck up with their chiding. Yet Matt M thinks it'd be humorous if they got ill and died, and Chris In Philly shares his height of wit insult 'incel' - What fine morale arbiters!
Thanks to people like Matt M you'll be wearing a mask in grocery stores the rest of your life. 9/11 was 20 years ago and we're still taking our shoes off every flight - surrendering everything in times of trouble, the horse never gets put back in the barn. Yes, Bill L, not wearing a mask is like having unprotected AIDS sex. Fearful fucking imbeciles - I'm glad your dull lives are effectively unchanged being consigned to Netflix and couch farts interminably, but it's not really defensible given the realities on the ground.
Unless you think we should never allow international travel again, sports, concerts, meeting new people, dating, school and just about everything normal life entails, eventually we're going to have to take this on the chin a little bit. The whole point was that we all stayed inside to let our medical facilities not be overwhelmed - well, its been two months and not only are they not overwhelmed everywhere, they're actually underwhelmed and facing funding crises as they have delayed all other procedures for the corona wave that never came. How many people have died or are suffering because they can't get other medical treatment? What about the report of the stress this has done to the global food supply chain that will likely cause starvation in poor nations?
Look forward to the smarmy snark in the replies.
You're truly a moron
You're truly a moron
Thanks for the thoughtful reply, midwit.
Quote:
You're truly a moron
Thanks for the thoughtful reply, midwit.
There is no need of a thoughtful reply to such an ignorant false idiotic argument that you presented numbnuts. Sorry!
Looking out at the emptiness, “You’re thinking, where are all of the patients?” said Sue. “Where are the patients having heart attacks, strokes, diabetic ketoacidosis?”[quote]
Looking out at the emptiness, “You’re thinking, where are all of the patients?” said Sue. “Where are the patients having heart attacks, strokes, diabetic ketoacidosis?”
Link - ( New Window )
The fear porn produced to get everyone to sign onto the '2 weeks to flatten the curve' (lol what happened to that as it turned into indefinite weeks to ???) is now having the opposite effect as most people have brains and recognize that a. we aren't containing this since it arrived on our shores months before any of the restrictions were put in b. It's not as deadly as feared (this is good news) and c. the notion that we're going to continue sheltered in place for a year plus until a vaccine or whatever else panacea is dreamed up is so offensively stupid people who suggest it should be tarred and feathered.
The destruction this insanely overzealous reaction has caused to our economy, people's livelihoods and ultimately the toll in lives is going to be an order of magnitude worse than the coronavirus death count. Every politician that has made themselves the story here needs to be held to account for there capricious, often unconstitutional rules and enforcement. I can only dream of them getting the justice they deserve.
Also, every privileged asshole who does not realize that 35 million of their countrymen are out of work and facing existential crises from something that almost entirely affects the elderly or co-morbid needs to shut the fuck up with their chiding. Yet Matt M thinks it'd be humorous if they got ill and died, and Chris In Philly shares his height of wit insult 'incel' - What fine morale arbiters!
Thanks to people like Matt M you'll be wearing a mask in grocery stores the rest of your life. 9/11 was 20 years ago and we're still taking our shoes off every flight - surrendering everything in times of trouble, the horse never gets put back in the barn. Yes, Bill L, not wearing a mask is like having unprotected AIDS sex. Fearful fucking imbeciles - I'm glad your dull lives are effectively unchanged being consigned to Netflix and couch farts interminably, but it's not really defensible given the realities on the ground.
Unless you think we should never allow international travel again, sports, concerts, meeting new people, dating, school and just about everything normal life entails, eventually we're going to have to take this on the chin a little bit. The whole point was that we all stayed inside to let our medical facilities not be overwhelmed - well, its been two months and not only are they not overwhelmed everywhere, they're actually underwhelmed and facing funding crises as they have delayed all other procedures for the corona wave that never came. How many people have died or are suffering because they can't get other medical treatment? What about the report of the stress this has done to the global food supply chain that will likely cause starvation in poor nations?
Look forward to the smarmy snark in the replies.
No need to wait; just read your own screed and you'll find all the smarm you'll ever need.
Looking out at the emptiness, “You’re thinking, where are all of the patients?” said Sue. “Where are the patients having heart attacks, strokes, diabetic ketoacidosis?”[quote]
Not to mention the heartbreak of psoriasis.
Perhaps you're confused, but I've mDE ZERO CLAIMS PRO OR CON REGARDING THE MSM. I was just curious at your use of a clear double standard, followed up by a very obvious attempt to deflect. So which is it, MSM good, or MSM bad? Your cake is waiting for your answer.
Last reply here because it takes away from the utility of the thread and you are not really discussing things in an intellectually honest manner. You are just trying to stir up shit for some reason.
I posted this tweet from John Roberts.
@johnrobertsFox
·
7h
A Senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 Intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional.
YOUR reply was
So, I asked you to explain yourself and tell me who is the "conspiracy quack" John Roberts or 17 intelligence agencies.
And then you droned on about MSM.
It is weird when people think there is some conspiracy to inflate death numbers either to make certain moronic politicians look bad or to get more money from the Fed ..
meanwhile hospitals in Brooklyn are putting dead bodies in trucks because they ran out of room in their morgues .. but you know fake numbers..
that last clause gives people all the opportunity they need to not wear a mask.
It was my wife's birthday yesterday so I went to the super market to get a cake. It was my first time anywhere but the liquor store or gas station in about six weeks. I felt like people were taking decent precautions. Only two people didn't have masks that I saw. they looked like 20-something men who didn't give a F. carts were disinfected upon return, aisles were all one way, in the checkout line and at the deli they had markers where you had to stand that were 6 feet apart, etc.
I don't think we can remain locked in until there is a vaccine, but also don't think some precautions are asking too much or giving up freedoms.
Quote:
Perhaps you're confused, but I've mDE ZERO CLAIMS PRO OR CON REGARDING THE MSM. I was just curious at your use of a clear double standard, followed up by a very obvious attempt to deflect. So which is it, MSM good, or MSM bad? Your cake is waiting for your answer.
Last reply here because it takes away from the utility of the thread and you are not really discussing things in an intellectually honest manner. You are just trying to stir up shit for some reason.
I posted this tweet from John Roberts.
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
7h
A Senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 Intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional.
YOUR reply was
Quote:
HUGE grain of salt here. I wonder why no one else, outside of conspiracy quacks, has said anything like this. Sure, it's possible, but then most things are possible.
So, I asked you to explain yourself and tell me who is the "conspiracy quack" John Roberts or 17 intelligence agencies.
And then you droned on about MSM.
When you haven't got an answer to a legitimate observation, I guess the only option you have is to resort to an Ad Hominem and then run away. Intellectual honesty at its finest, folks.
The food shortage isn't just due to fear of the virus. It's due to the actual virus.
Quote:
In comment 14894845 BMac said:
Quote:
Perhaps you're confused, but I've mDE ZERO CLAIMS PRO OR CON REGARDING THE MSM. I was just curious at your use of a clear double standard, followed up by a very obvious attempt to deflect. So which is it, MSM good, or MSM bad? Your cake is waiting for your answer.
Last reply here because it takes away from the utility of the thread and you are not really discussing things in an intellectually honest manner. You are just trying to stir up shit for some reason.
I posted this tweet from John Roberts.
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
7h
A Senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 Intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional.
YOUR reply was
Quote:
HUGE grain of salt here. I wonder why no one else, outside of conspiracy quacks, has said anything like this. Sure, it's possible, but then most things are possible.
So, I asked you to explain yourself and tell me who is the "conspiracy quack" John Roberts or 17 intelligence agencies.
And then you droned on about MSM.
When you haven't got an answer to a legitimate observation, I guess the only option you have is to resort to an Ad Hominem and then run away. Intellectual honesty at its finest, folks.
See, again. You cannot defend your comment so you are the one who turns to attacks.
Answer the question. Which one is the conspiracy quack? John Roberts or 17 intelligence agencies.
Or better yet, just admit you didn't read the tweet or maybe you didn't understand it, apologize for vitriol and just move on.
or just move on. no one cares.
The food shortage isn't just due to fear of the virus. It's due to the actual virus.
Correct.
These people up in the cops' faces, they are not wearing masks, not keeping six feet apart (I also have no idea why the police aren't wearing masks here). They are aggressive, screaming-- spittle is obviously flying in the air.
Imagine if these people were black. Couple these actions with the fully armed and disguised pretend patriots in military gear and AKs storming government buildings, and it's hard not to see the "two Americas."
It seems blue lives matter" and just "do what the officers tell you" are only for when it involves people of color.
https://twitter.com/FredTJoseph/status/1256951162454118407 - ( New Window )
These people up in the cops' faces, they are not wearing masks, not keeping six feet apart (I also have no idea why the police aren't wearing masks here). They are aggressive, screaming-- spittle is obviously flying in the air.
Imagine if these people were black. Couple these actions with the fully armed and disguised pretend patriots in military gear and AKs storming government buildings, and it's hard not to see the "two Americas."
It seems blue lives matter" and just "do what the officers tell you" are only for when it involves people of color. https://twitter.com/FredTJoseph/status/1256951162454118407 - ( New Window )
You sir are 100% correct
These people up in the cops' faces, they are not wearing masks, not keeping six feet apart (I also have no idea why the police aren't wearing masks here). They are aggressive, screaming-- spittle is obviously flying in the air.
Imagine if these people were black. Couple these actions with the fully armed and disguised pretend patriots in military gear and AKs storming government buildings, and it's hard not to see the "two Americas."
It seems blue lives matter" and just "do what the officers tell you" are only for when it involves people of color. https://twitter.com/FredTJoseph/status/1256951162454118407 - ( New Window )
100% correct the hypocrisy is nauseating.
The food shortage isn't just due to fear of the virus. It's due to the actual virus.
I think the plant/ slaughter houses shut down more so out of fear of litigation. Unfortunately, this has meant that there have been mass euthanizing across the food supply chain amongst farmers that raise livestock. People don’t understand the magnitude this will have in the supply chain, ready to harvest animals are being put down, and this is going to crush these farmers financially, prices to consumers will also go up, and supply of meat will become scarce.
@CBS_Herridge
·
6m
#COVID19 DHS intel report @CBSNews
“We assess the Chinese Government intentionally concealed the severity of COVID-19 from the international community in early January while it stockpiled medical supplies by both increasing imports and decreasing exports.” First reported AP
@CBS_Herridge
·
6m
#COVID19 DHS intel report @CBSNews
“We assess the Chinese Government intentionally concealed the severity of COVID-19 from the international community in early January while it stockpiled medical supplies by both increasing imports and decreasing exports.” First reported AP
Well that's a surprise...
Economic sanctions? No idea really, just suggesting one option.
US military germ warfare lab has created a 'game changer' test capable of detecting coronavirus before it's infectious - ( New Window )
Quote:
Have you looked at restrictions put in place in Michigan? Most people, even evil conservatives will obay reasonable restrictions. But when the government overreaches they will squawk.
Please explain to me why it's okay to go to Home Depot to buy certain items but others are off limits.
Why is okay to go out on a lake in a row boat but not a gas powered boat?
It's when these Governors over reach people will protest. And rightly so.
You think these pathetic incel losers are protesting boat motors? Alrighty then...
I can't tell you what everyone there is protesting. But the protests did start as a protest against restrictions that have nothing to do with covid.
Quote:
a whole host of correlary factors.
The same ding dongs that advocate free market right now would shit themselves if we advocated the Swedish model for higher education, or government revenue, or taxation.
I wish a whole lot of people would stop reading that dumbass Ayn Rand and would actually read Coase’s lighthouse article, or would learn about externalities. It would actually make people semi-smart.
I don’t know if this is for me? But I love me some econ talk (and I enjoy your posts as terrific and well considered food for thought), so I’ll bite. It’s been a while since I studied Coase but as far as I know his conclusions aren’t settled science. (And I mean this earnestly b/c I know he continued a few years after I earned my bachelors degree). Certainly better to read than Ayn Rand, (who I read in high school and now see as kind of silly but she had some excellent points as well especially about family), but you can find plenty of people that soundly reject Coase and his conclusions on light houses.
Regardless, the Swedish model doesn’t appear to me to be predicated on their economic organization, at least not wholly so, and it’s also not entirely clear that it’s enabled by their social services. That’s why I point out the Arkansas response here. Asa Hutchinson and seven or so other governors basically did what the Swedes have done. And, so far at least, the state of Arkansas seems to have fared no worse than those around the country with similar demographic profiles. I’m not interested in assailing the response of any particular agency, or state or party, I’m just saying that now we know more and should adjust accordingly. NYC and surrounding area (my home) seems to be an edge case and needs to treated as such.
But I don’t think upstate New York needs to have similar shelter in place and social distancing imposed. Nor do I think the rest of the country needs NYC style precautions. The thing about the Swedish model that is really important to grasp is that sustainability was a key component. And I think we in America are either already past or fast approaching the point where shelter in place and drastic social distancing is no longer sustainable.
Finally, regardless of the approach, we need to get back to work. As you are very clearly learned in the dismal science, you must also know that our darkest days are still just before us. The trillions passed by congress were sort of like shooting four or five of our six bullets into the dark and well before the beast was even near. The real suffering won’t be for those deceased by the covid 19 / Wuhan China virus but for the rest of us left to dig out of the depressed global economy.
There's really no such thing as settled science in Economics, but Coase is pretty well-accepted, or at least the interpretations of what he said.
And I think your "Arkansas" argument is precisely why the "Swedish" model is nonsense; it's highly regionally dependent, and a function of other variables. Sweden works for Sweden at the national level because they have a host of other factors that are unique to that area, including economic organization, that make it more likely that people feel that they have a safety net in case of the worst.
And, if you look at IMHE, except for education closures, there have been relatively dramatic differences in several policies and when they were implemented.
Restrictions are starting to be lifted in a number of places, including in California soon. So, we will see a resumption of work. But, as I've attempted to point out, this is not going to go back to the economy of old.
1. If we want to punish China, the supply chain needs to be removed from that country. And, if that happens, a lot of cheap (and quick) shipping will go away (it may come back, but it will take a LONG time).
2. We were facing a recession before this pandemic (not as quick, but one was coming). Demand is shot.
3. Unless people are willing to engage in the economic activity that they were beforehand (latest surveys show that around 32% of Americans polled are going to cook at home more, and that 48% are worried about paying for necessities in next few months), GDP is going to take a long time to recover, with several sectors (arts, entertainment, leisure; accomodation and food services) maybe not recovering for years.
I know we're going to get people back to work, but we have a number of structural issues to face. Our healthcare (like any other system) does incredibly poorly in rural, underserved areas. And given our geographic breadth, we have a lot of these. We've also absolutely blown a chance to improve on the situations for those with shitty or no health insurance. And lastly, the child care "epidemic" that could pop up is going to depress a lot of workers' ability to go back.
I'm not predicting a V-shaped recovery. I am predicting a recovery that takes at least a year before a lot of sectors re-approach normal.
Nobody is impacted exactly the same and comparing differing miseries is nonproductive - what is productive is all of us doing our parts to get out of this as quickly as possible, which at the present moment means taking the problem seriously and working together because unlike other health problems we can't solve this one by ourselves because we can't prevent someone else from unknowingly carrying it. There's plenty of info out there that opening without solving the virus doesn't solve the economy. Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting was a couple of days ago and I'd highly recommend reading through the transcript because they've obviously got as good of a view into of the state of the economy across many different cross sections.
Bitching about masks or haircuts or not being able to go to certain closed stores, like the inconvenience of taking your shoes off at the airport, is first world problems at it's finest. I can only imagine the reactions if it were millennials marching and bitching because they can't get avocado toast. It is not just the elderly at risk, health care workers and first responders are at high risk too. I believe I read that more NYPD have died from COVID than on 9/11. How is it not the height of entitlement to disobey simple precautions like not congregating in big groups (especially those that require LEO present) and wearing masks when in close contact with other people?
I will get bashed for this one but how many of the law enforcement who have passed were overweight (this seems to be a big cofactor)? Sometimes negative events can create better practices going forward. Maybe have them take a some sort of physical test and weight standards like the military.
I will read the Berkshire meeting.....thanks for mentioning it.
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
I will get bashed for this one but how many of the law enforcement who have passed were overweight (this seems to be a big cofactor)? Sometimes negative events can create better practices going forward. Maybe have them take a some sort of physical test and weight standards like the military.
I will read the Berkshire meeting.....thanks for mentioning it.
Of course it's complicated - my point was that the simple things we are being advised to do are intended to help mitigate some of that complication to allow for quickest return possible. And the hostility towards the simple things only make the complicated parts harder.
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
If new york and new jersey are slowing down why is it not the time to start thinking about reopening?
If ot surges in new york and new jersey i agree, but states that are either over the hump or not hit hard why cant they discuss reopening?
As long as they do it smart and ready to closw if needed
this is the way out
In what could be a significant breakthrough, project coordinators hope the blood-based test will be able to detect the virus’s presence as early as 24 hours after infection – before people show symptoms and several days before a carrier is considered capable of spreading it to other people. That is also around four days before current tests can detect the virus.
With a test like this we could pretty much stamp out all Covid cases ...
US germ warfare research leads to new early Covid-19 test - ( New Window )
Quote:
Jim Roberts
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
If new york and new jersey are slowing down why is it not the time to start thinking about reopening?
If ot surges in new york and new jersey i agree, but states that are either over the hump or not hit hard why cant they discuss reopening?
As long as they do it smart and ready to closw if needed
Unfortunately, cards go up a lot faster than they go down. The infection and death curves have proven to be asymmetrical. If you open up a few weeks too early, and don’t have the right distancing and mitigation procedures in place, you’re looking at months of shutdown just to get back to where you were before.
Quote:
In comment 14895549 Ryan in Albany said:
Quote:
Jim Roberts
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
If new york and new jersey are slowing down why is it not the time to start thinking about reopening?
If ot surges in new york and new jersey i agree, but states that are either over the hump or not hit hard why cant they discuss reopening?
As long as they do it smart and ready to closw if needed
Unfortunately, cards go up a lot faster than they go down. The infection and death curves have proven to be asymmetrical. If you open up a few weeks too early, and don’t have the right distancing and mitigation procedures in place, you’re looking at months of shutdown just to get back to where you were before.
Right, but you still have to try, I would still wait another week maybe 2 for jersey and parts of new york..
You do it slowly, least riskiest first and then see after 2 weeks can you open a little more, do you have to cut back or do you stay what you are doing..
so far every long term projection has been wrong, you cant let projections make your decision, it has to be what the data is telling you right now, if there is an uptick you habe to listen to it and analyze it. If it is still a steady decrease, you keep going..
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
This would be unexpected and devastating.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That's the model that I've been following and it's been fairly steady. It projects the June 1st death total to be at 44.
Needless to say, there's a difference between 3000 and 44.
I just can't believe the 3000 number for June 1st, it goes against so much of what has been said and what we've seen.
Coronavirus: Tanzania testing kits questioned after goat and papaya test positive
The president admits there may be "technical errors" , having previously suggested people could pray the disease away.
The samples were then submitted to Tanzania's laboratory to test for the coronavirus, with the lab technicians deliberately not made aware of their origins.
Mr Magufuli said the return of positive results on the goat and papaya indicated some people were testing positive despite not having the virus.
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
Jim Roberts
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
This would be unexpected and devastating.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That's the model that I've been following and it's been fairly steady. It projects the June 1st death total to be at 44.
Needless to say, there's a difference between 3000 and 44.
I just can't believe the 3000 number for June 1st, it goes against so much of what has been said and what we've seen.
Seems like that times article is complete worse case scenario, like the original 2.5 million deaths
What is the proposed go-forward look like? Are people testing themselves each morning before they leave the house? when they enter a public place?
do they have to go somewhere to get tested?
and how long does it take to get results?
(all honest questions by the way).
I fundamentally acknowledge the importance of testing (in that we need to know who is infected and can get others sick) but it isn't clear to me how this actually gets implemented in the US.
they had ranges, 44 was best case and i think the top was 800
What is the proposed go-forward look like? Are people testing themselves each morning before they leave the house? when they enter a public place?
do they have to go somewhere to get tested?
and how long does it take to get results?
(all honest questions by the way).
I fundamentally acknowledge the importance of testing (in that we need to know who is infected and can get others sick) but it isn't clear to me how this actually gets implemented in the US.
I would assume you test as many people as you can, i also assume the test takes minutes otherwise it is pointless..
If you can catch it before you can spread it, you basically kill it, it needs a host to survive..
The imperial college study that estimated millions dead was just 1 scenario they outlined without social distancing (see link below). If we pass 100k deaths within 2 months with all the restrictions that will have been in place I can't imagine what things would look like without everyone social distancing.
I mean, it's just math right? 70k are already dead with just .3% of the country testing positive. Even if the actual infections are 10-20x higher that still puts us a very long way from herd immunity. Like 150m people away. So multiple the death count 5-10x even if the healthcare system maintains it's current effectiveness?
“We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures – most notably, large scale social distancing – will need to be in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes available.”
March 17: Imperial researchers model likely impact of public health measures - ( New Window )
It's a forecast; any forecast will have to be adjusted as real-time data comes in, but they are important for several reasons.
The biggest is that it provides a template for worst-case scenario with absolutely no involvment, which allows for a rough cost-benefit scenario to be drawn up.
Just because we didn't hit those benchmarks, or are not seeing the infections we could have, does not mean that what we did was wrong or misguided. That's a fallacy.
all we hear about is the importance of testing, but I am really struggling with the practicality of how it would work.
and the implementation is the key part of this.
New jersey has been all over the map, one day 400 then next day 50, even during peak times, there has been no pattern..
all we hear about is the importance of testing, but I am really struggling with the practicality of how it would work.
and the implementation is the key part of this.
it is not just testing people to see if they have it..
you are testing people before they can spread it, there is a huge difference
It’s also unclear if we’ve even been hit that hard yet. The NY state antibody results were not that encouraging. 20% infection rate in NYC, much lower elsewhere, 12.5% statewide. And this is the hardest hit area of the country. Suggests there’s a lot of room for the virus to spread if we just fling the doors open.
Lastly, and I think this is really important to remember, “opening the country” will not influence everyone’s behavior. People are scared, a lot of people are out of work, you can’t just flip a switch and go back to how life was in February. Economic activity will be depressed until people feel comfortable that things are safe, that the virus is behind us. Until then forget it. Doesn’t matter what politicians say or do, people aren’t going to resume normal behavior or take one on the chin.
you are testing people before they can spread it, there is a huge difference
bingo ...
this test takes 24 hours for results .. but the test can tell if someone has the virus BEFORE they are contagious . A combination of this test and contract tracers you could snuff out the virus from spreading ..completely.
Contact tracing seems literally impossible in NYC for example.
Contact tracing seems literally impossible in NYC for example.
You test everyone, it says in the article 100,000 a day in may and then by june a million a day
Quote:
Jim Roberts
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
This would be unexpected and devastating.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That's the model that I've been following and it's been fairly steady. It projects the June 1st death total to be at 44.
Needless to say, there's a difference between 3000 and 44.
I just can't believe the 3000 number for June 1st, it goes against so much of what has been said and what we've seen.
That model assumes that shelter in place orders remain in place through the timeframe that you are looking at.
umm most of us now carry this thing call a cell phone .. and big secret revealed - it can track all your movement ..
if someone has virus and you were in close contact with them in an enclosed environment .. you would get a text message that you might have been exposed and you need to quarantine until a healthcare professional can come to your home and test you with this test..in 24 hours you will know if you have been exposed ..
if you have you would be exposed .. then there will be a laid out path for the next 14 days .. depending if you get bad case of Covid or you are asymptomatic .
if not .. you can go back to your life ..
the group of people with virus or exposed will get smaller and smaller until the virus is gone from US.
Quote:
Why would someone get tested before they suspected being sick? How would you even know if you were potentially sick? Maybe if a family member or coworker is sick you’d think to get a test. But if a stranger near you in the store or a restaurant or the subway or the hardware store or whatever is sick, how would you know to go get tested?
Contact tracing seems literally impossible in NYC for example.
You test everyone, it says in the article 100,000 a day in may and then by june a million a day
How do you test 375,000,000 people every day?
I wouldn’t do that unless it was required by law and I am not at all a conspiracy theorist or anti-government person. But I am not going to voluntarily submit to surveillance like that.
Now they think it's going to rise and hit higher levels than the mid-April peak in early June? It's just such an unexpected development. The 2nd wave hitting in the fall was something that we knew could happen, but this wave peaking in June? Ridiculous, hopefully it's not true.
Quote:
In comment 14895700 Oscar said:
Quote:
Why would someone get tested before they suspected being sick? How would you even know if you were potentially sick? Maybe if a family member or coworker is sick you’d think to get a test. But if a stranger near you in the store or a restaurant or the subway or the hardware store or whatever is sick, how would you know to go get tested?
Contact tracing seems literally impossible in NYC for example.
You test everyone, it says in the article 100,000 a day in may and then by june a million a day
How do you test 375,000,000 people every day?
you dont have to test them every day..
I wouldn’t do that unless it was required by law and I am not at all a conspiracy theorist or anti-government person. But I am not going to voluntarily submit to surveillance like that.
Is your location on on your cell phone?
that's the question, not why or who? but how?
maybe it is the cell phone tracing giantsfan mentions.
but short of that, how are hundreds of millions of people going to be tested each day or every other day?
self administered?
when they walk into a building? a restaurant?
until that part of the plan gets explained, just yelling for more tests (not you guys) makes little sense.
It just needs to be purchased, but it's easily available.
Quote:
In comment 14895228 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14894845 BMac said:
Quote:
Perhaps you're confused, but I've mDE ZERO CLAIMS PRO OR CON REGARDING THE MSM. I was just curious at your use of a clear double standard, followed up by a very obvious attempt to deflect. So which is it, MSM good, or MSM bad? Your cake is waiting for your answer.
Last reply here because it takes away from the utility of the thread and you are not really discussing things in an intellectually honest manner. You are just trying to stir up shit for some reason.
I posted this tweet from John Roberts.
Quote:
John Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
·
7h
A Senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 Intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional.
YOUR reply was
Quote:
HUGE grain of salt here. I wonder why no one else, outside of conspiracy quacks, has said anything like this. Sure, it's possible, but then most things are possible.
So, I asked you to explain yourself and tell me who is the "conspiracy quack" John Roberts or 17 intelligence agencies.
And then you droned on about MSM.
When you haven't got an answer to a legitimate observation, I guess the only option you have is to resort to an Ad Hominem and then run away. Intellectual honesty at its finest, folks.
See, again. You cannot defend your comment so you are the one who turns to attacks.
Answer the question. Which one is the conspiracy quack? John Roberts or 17 intelligence agencies.
Or better yet, just admit you didn't read the tweet or maybe you didn't understand it, apologize for vitriol and just move on.
or just move on. no one cares.
Maybe I should have yelled "Two!"
that's the question, not why or who? but how?
maybe it is the cell phone tracing giantsfan mentions.
but short of that, how are hundreds of millions of people going to be tested each day or every other day?
self administered?
when they walk into a building? a restaurant?
until that part of the plan gets explained, just yelling for more tests (not you guys) makes little sense.
They would start with 100,000 people, of those who test positive, they will look at where you have been a d who you encountered and contact those people then they would get tested..
this would keep going on until no more positive tests
These decisions are above my pay grade.
See, again. You cannot defend your comment so you are the one who turns to attacks.
Answer the question. Which one is the conspiracy quack? John Roberts or 17 intelligence agencies.
Or better yet, just admit you didn't read the tweet or maybe you didn't understand it, apologize for vitriol and just move on.
or just move on. no one cares.
Maybe I should have yelled "Two!"
Or you could have just STFU and moved on. Your contribution to this thread is less than zero.
that's the question, not why or who? but how?
maybe it is the cell phone tracing giantsfan mentions.
but short of that, how are hundreds of millions of people going to be tested each day or every other day?
self administered?
when they walk into a building? a restaurant?
until that part of the plan gets explained, just yelling for more tests (not you guys) makes little sense.
.this test recognizes exposed people before they can infect others .. that is the key just think of it as a funnel
You start with those who have it .. then you digitally retrace their steps - you administer to everyone they have been in contact with .. You could cut down the amount of people you have to test at first -- if you limit to those who were in contact to infected person in a enclosed environment .
anyone that is exposed is quarantined..
eventually it will be a smaller and smaller amount of people that are exposed
eventually the virus spread will be halted completely ..
it would be best if it happened now during shelter in place when people are not moving around .so much..
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See, again. You cannot defend your comment so you are the one who turns to attacks.
Answer the question. Which one is the conspiracy quack? John Roberts or 17 intelligence agencies.
Or better yet, just admit you didn't read the tweet or maybe you didn't understand it, apologize for vitriol and just move on.
or just move on. no one cares.
Maybe I should have yelled "Two!"
Or you could have just STFU and moved on. Your contribution to this thread is less than zero.
Hey nBo Peep, how are your sheep?
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How?
that's the question, not why or who? but how?
maybe it is the cell phone tracing giantsfan mentions.
but short of that, how are hundreds of millions of people going to be tested each day or every other day?
self administered?
when they walk into a building? a restaurant?
until that part of the plan gets explained, just yelling for more tests (not you guys) makes little sense.
.this test recognizes exposed people before they can infect others .. that is the key just think of it as a funnel
You start with those who have it .. then you digitally retrace their steps - you administer to everyone they have been in contact with .. You could cut down the amount of people you have to test at first -- if you limit to those who were in contact to infected person in a enclosed environment .
anyone that is exposed is quarantined..
eventually it will be a smaller and smaller amount of people that are exposed
eventually the virus spread will be halted completely ..
it would be best if it happened now during shelter in place when people are not moving around .so much..
This would have to start in areas where they aren't hit as hard or just starting to reopen and contact tracing can still be done.
I think in NY/NJ and some of the other harder hit metro areas, it's too late for that strategy. The only thing that would work in those is mass testing for everyone and then mandatory quarantine for those that test positive.
Or you could have just STFU and moved on. Your contribution to this thread is less than zero.
Hey nBo Peep, how are your sheep?
LOL. Define irony without using Steve Buscemi aka Garland Green. Easy...see the post above.
Example above and the picture below are solid examples of irony
It would seem to me the main takeaway is just how uncertain and volatile this situation is - which I guess makes sense given how much of the population hasn't had it yet (300m+).
I wouldn’t do that unless it was required by law and I am not at all a conspiracy theorist or anti-government person. But I am not going to voluntarily submit to surveillance like that.
Man I hate to break it to you, but you already did.
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Jim Roberts
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
This would be unexpected and devastating.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That's the model that I've been following and it's been fairly steady. It projects the June 1st death total to be at 44.
Needless to say, there's a difference between 3000 and 44.
I just can't believe the 3000 number for June 1st, it goes against so much of what has been said and what we've seen.
That report was an internal document with the CDC. Had nothing to do with the Trump administration nor the coronavirus task force. Yet again a misleading, dangerous headline by the NYT.
The administration is now predicting closer to 100k deaths now though, up from the 50-60k estimate two weeks ago.
Also what effect opening golf and parks will have on the numbers..
and everyone will be watching georgia ans whoever else decides to open
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In comment 14895549 Ryan in Albany said:
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Jim Roberts
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
This would be unexpected and devastating.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That's the model that I've been following and it's been fairly steady. It projects the June 1st death total to be at 44.
Needless to say, there's a difference between 3000 and 44.
I just can't believe the 3000 number for June 1st, it goes against so much of what has been said and what we've seen.
That report was an internal document with the CDC. Had nothing to do with the Trump administration nor the coronavirus task force. Yet again a misleading, dangerous headline by the NYT.
The administration is now predicting closer to 100k deaths now though, up from the 50-60k estimate two weeks ago.
Very disappointing that my beloved NYT would post such a deceptive and inflammatory headline/article. Destructive to the quality of debate on what to do next, as is the general vibe in the media that it’s “Less death vs guys who want to go to the beach.”
Quote:
Or you could have just STFU and moved on. Your contribution to this thread is less than zero.
Hey nBo Peep, how are your sheep?
LOL. Define irony without using Steve Buscemi aka Garland Green. Easy...see the post above.
Example above and the picture below are solid examples of irony
Two bags full, Petey, two bags full. You can't even catch a clear reference outside of your own magic kingdom.
but you are being a dick, your posts are mostly unintelligible, and worst of all you are cluttering the thread up with unhelpful posts only intended to provoke.
Some people come to this thread and hope to find useful information.
At this point, you win. I'm just not going to reply to you out of courtesy to other posters.
Have a great day.
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In comment 14895637 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
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In comment 14895549 Ryan in Albany said:
Quote:
Jim Roberts
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
This would be unexpected and devastating.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That's the model that I've been following and it's been fairly steady. It projects the June 1st death total to be at 44.
Needless to say, there's a difference between 3000 and 44.
I just can't believe the 3000 number for June 1st, it goes against so much of what has been said and what we've seen.
That report was an internal document with the CDC. Had nothing to do with the Trump administration nor the coronavirus task force. Yet again a misleading, dangerous headline by the NYT.
The administration is now predicting closer to 100k deaths now though, up from the 50-60k estimate two weeks ago.
Very disappointing that my beloved NYT would post such a deceptive and inflammatory headline/article. Destructive to the quality of debate on what to do next, as is the general vibe in the media that it’s “Less death vs guys who want to go to the beach.”
It feels like anyone who says they want to go back to work is picking money over peoples lives and it is bs...
Dont make me feel bad because i want to make money to provide for my family
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In comment 14895791 MetsAreBack said:
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In comment 14895637 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
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In comment 14895549 Ryan in Albany said:
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Jim Roberts
@nycjim
· 24m
NEW: Trump administration projects a steady rise in #coronavirus deaths over next few weeks, reaching 3,000 a day by June 1. https://nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?referringSource=articleShare
Strikes me as not the time to reopen.
This would be unexpected and devastating.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That's the model that I've been following and it's been fairly steady. It projects the June 1st death total to be at 44.
Needless to say, there's a difference between 3000 and 44.
I just can't believe the 3000 number for June 1st, it goes against so much of what has been said and what we've seen.
That report was an internal document with the CDC. Had nothing to do with the Trump administration nor the coronavirus task force. Yet again a misleading, dangerous headline by the NYT.
The administration is now predicting closer to 100k deaths now though, up from the 50-60k estimate two weeks ago.
Very disappointing that my beloved NYT would post such a deceptive and inflammatory headline/article. Destructive to the quality of debate on what to do next, as is the general vibe in the media that it’s “Less death vs guys who want to go to the beach.”
It feels like anyone who says they want to go back to work is picking money over peoples lives and it is bs...
Dont make me feel bad because i want to make money to provide for my family
No good options, but wish the media coverage could be more well-balanced. The argument is portrayed as “less death vs jobs/freedom” ... usually accompanied by depictions of people on the beach or in bars. It’s actually “less deaths vs the impact of a another Great Depression which will impact 50 million plus US families, and includes heightened suicide, domestic abuse, depression, and anxiety races, and emotional damage to children uprooted by the crisis.
It’s a grim debate. But we need to have it because people are getting crushed.
The internal document allegedly projects the increase and the Washington U. study also projects a sharp incline as a result of measures being lifted.
Exactly. Both sides need to be balanced. But the worst outcome is screwing up both - trying to go back to normal too early, and having a wider outbreak that makes things worse for both public health and the economy.
The last couple months of this have sucked - but you know what would be worse? Wasting whatever progress was made to bend to curve by letting it climb out of control again.
The internal document allegedly projects the increase and the Washington U. study also projects a sharp incline as a result of measures being lifted.
I'm inclined to agree - the underlying documents the articles today seem to be reporting on are literally federal agency branded documents.
China is going to get a good smack from the United States and the Globe but how will that all fall out into the "pay us back" attitude I see being pushed by many?
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The economic ramifications could be worse than waiting a little bit longer to go back. The economy isn’t just going to be fixed once people are “allowed” to socialize. There are a ton of factors to consider. Being cautious about wanting to open everything back up isn’t “just” about saving lives.
Healthy, least likely to get sick folks NEED to get back to work like RIGHT NOW. Printing $3 trillion with more to be printed has really, really hurt this country especially down the road when inflation hits.
China is going to get a good smack from the United States and the Globe but how will that all fall out into the "pay us back" attitude I see being pushed by many?
And what do you do about any unhealthy or older people who share those households? Like 50% of the total population has some risk factor (diabetes, asthma, overweight, age, etc).
I'm not suggesting nothing can open up until this is resolved but there needs to be an organized plan - and those plans should all start with declining infections. The original phased openings made sense where there needed to be 2 weeks of declining cases/hospitalizations before lower risk activities could begin again but I guess we are on to a new plan now despite the curve not breaking as much as expected?
2. Childcare. In states that are not worker friendly, what happens if an hourly worker needs 4 weeks at home to maintain quarantine and take care of a sick kid?
Almost 30M people lost jobs in less than 8 weeks.
If that doubles what's the impact? Can the current economy get so bad it's not recoverable?
Is there a time period after which many of those millions of small businesses hanging on by a thread, will be forced to throw in the towel and no longer can reopen when restrictions ease?
I'm not suggesting anything, just trying to consider the economic impact vs the direct virus impact and I think both have to be considered with any decision on restrictions and re-opening.
The internal document allegedly projects the increase and the Washington U. study also projects a sharp incline as a result of measures being lifted.
The title of the article says the Trump administration is using this one
Model - it is not. The model is an internal document with the CDC, has not been vetted with any of the other agencies, and is likely one of many models being evaluated within the CDC as well. It was also leaked by someone looking to make a point.
For the article to claim that the Trump administration is using this as its base case and still choosing to open up Knowing it will kill so many - is obviously exactly the kind of partisan, fear mongering, dishonest bullshit none of us needs these days.
Anyway I’m personally still skeptical of the modeling because we stilll don’t have a firm handle on the true denominators - by age, demographic, region, etc. there’s still too much variability in the outcomes as much as these people are obviously doing their best.
No international or domestic travel till they can test before getting on the plane.
It probably is going to take very long time to recover economically. I walk down a city street and look at all the businesses....ugly. Some cities will be devastated. Big businesses are soon to follow with layoffs. Let's work to keep as many afloat as possible. This will give a better future for all.
Watch the elders! Get the visiting nurses serving these people protection and make sure they are not infected before seeing patients. Same for the nursing and assisted living home. Supervise this!
Thank all those who are working the grocery stores, delivery, cvs, mail, etc.......often. Think of everyone as a teammate.
Maybe the more accurate headline would be:
"Daily Total to Reach About 3,000 by June, FEMA Projects"
The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.
Maybe the more accurate headline would be:
"Daily Total to Reach About 3,000 by June, FEMA Projects"
Quote:
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750.
The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.
My understanding is all FEMA did was pull a CDC model into chart form. And the John Hopkins scientist that gave the CDC the original data says it’s incomplete and was never meant as a forecast.
We also don’t know or have any reason to believe it’s an official FEMA or CDC view. It’s one model that apparently they were setting up an internal meeting to discuss. And then it was leaked and NY times completely distorted it. Has not had any kind of vetting or peer review.
It’s just an example of unnecessary reaching and Fear mongering. We don’t need this - there are plenty of validated models out there that tell us death totals could still go a lot higher than the 100k recently estimated by POTUS.
i would say new hospitilizations is thr most important, deaths after that...
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Less deaths per day or less new cases per day?
i would say new hospitilizations is thr most important, deaths after that...
Agree but understanding by city and state how much of the population has built up antibodies and some form of immunity is more important than both
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In comment 14895891 Matt M. said:
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Less deaths per day or less new cases per day?
i would say new hospitilizations is thr most important, deaths after that...
Agree but understanding by city and state how much of the population has built up antibodies and some form of immunity is more important than both
agreed
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Less deaths per day or less new cases per day?
i would say new hospitilizations is thr most important, deaths after that...
This is probably accurate. People have to remember that the serious threat of this virus ins't that people will get sick or die - it is that too many of them being sick at one time will overrun the hospital system. I think we are past that point now, which is the main reason that states are beginning to lift restrictions.
It isn't about declaring the virus beat. It isn't about declaring that cases won't continue for the next few months at a steady rate. It is about saying that the rate of hospitalization will not overburden hospitals.
Japan sending Fujifilm’s flu drug favipiravir to over 40 countries for Covid-19 trials - ( New Window )
Quote:
"Daily Total to Reach About 3,000 by June, Trump Administration Projects"
Maybe the more accurate headline would be:
"Daily Total to Reach About 3,000 by June, FEMA Projects"
Quote:
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750.
The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently.
My understanding is all FEMA did was pull a CDC model into chart form. And the John Hopkins scientist that gave the CDC the original data says it’s incomplete and was never meant as a forecast.
We also don’t know or have any reason to believe it’s an official FEMA or CDC view. It’s one model that apparently they were setting up an internal meeting to discuss. And then it was leaked and NY times completely distorted it. Has not had any kind of vetting or peer review.
It’s just an example of unnecessary reaching and Fear mongering. We don’t need this - there are plenty of validated models out there that tell us death totals could still go a lot higher than the 100k recently estimated by POTUS.
Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus response, said on "Fox News Sunday" that their projections have always estimated between 100,000 and 240,000 people could die even with mitigation measures in place.
MAB - You might believe we don't need this - but I do want to see this type of reporting then make my own assessment.
He also shoots down the China lab scenario. China has and will continue to lie but unless we have some ironclad evidence it's probably best to not piss them off in case they invent the vaccine first...
Fauci: No scientific evidence the coronavirus was made in a Chinese lab - ( New Window )
The interview addressed that as well.
All scientists agree that it s *NOT* an engineered bioweapon.
If it "escaped from the wet market", it's because the markets are sloppy and have shoddy practices and cleanliness. ANd the government is allowing the markets to stay open and not regulating them even after these markets have been responsible for outbreaks of severe flu, and the original SARS.
If it "escaped from the lab", they were studying the virus, and they are sloppy and have shoddy practices in handling these things where accidental release is more likely to happen. Hell they contract with individuals to go into the cave to capture the bats by hand with no protection. How easy would it be for one of them to contract it in that process.
Either way, the sloppiness and shoddy procures and enforcement allowed it to escape from wherever. And once it did, the failing of the Chinese government structure compounded the problem. At the end of the I cannot see how it matters much which was the source from where the virus "escaped".
Fauci is most concerned that the United States will be put to the test this fall and winter by a second wave of COVID-19 if the country does not blunt the infection rate by the summer.
“Shame on us if we don't have enough tests by the time this so-called return might occur in the fall and winter,” he says, advising that the U.S. needs to make sure we not only have an adequate supply of tests available before a second wave hits, but also a system for getting those tests to the people who most need them.
“I don't think there's a chance that this virus is just going to disappear,” he says. “It's going to be around, and if given the opportunity, it will resurge.” As such, Fauci says the U.S. should also focus this summer on properly reinforcing the nation’s health care system, ensuring the availability of hospital beds, ventilators, and personal protective equipment for health care workers.
Let's put to bed the misconception that this was man made once and for all. It serves zero purpose except a political one and does nothing to fix the problem.
No evidence it was man made - ( New Window )
He also shoots down the China lab scenario. China has and will continue to lie but unless we have some ironclad evidence it's probably best to not piss them off in case they invent the vaccine first...
This is the most bootlicking thing I've ever read. You should be embarrassed. BETTER NOT MAKE CHINA MAD
What, in case they release a pandemic through negligence (at best), hoard PPE, apply no international travel restrictions and lie about it all?
Look how well your approach has worked!
The 15-page research document, obtained by The Saturday Telegraph, lays the foundation for the case of negligence being mounted against China.
It states that to the “endangerment of other countries” the Chinese government covered-up news of the virus by silencing or “disappearing” doctors who spoke out, destroying evidence of it in laboratories and refusing to provide live samples to international scientists who were working on a vaccine.
I'll take this opinion over some overexposed lilliputian octogenarian and the WHO. The reckoning for that ratfucked government cannot come soon enough.
Coronavirus NSW: Dossier lays out case against China bat virus program - ( New Window )
I don't know that is refutes the lab escape theory though. Now, big claims should be backed by actual evidence, but he dismisses the idea that the virus escaped from a lab as a "circular argument". He does not really address it all. The idea that the virus was brought from nature into a lab, escaped through negligence or incompetence, and than covered up, is a pretty big deal. I am not saying it is true, again there should be evidence, but I don't think Fauci does anything to squelch that escape theory here.
I don't think these latest stories said the virus was engineered. The science refutes that idea.
they can both be true at the same time, and allegedly the White House and 17 US intelligence agencies believe there is evidence to support that claim (the virus, likely accidentally, was discovered at the wet market, and studied in a lab in Wuhan with poor controls and processes and "escaped" from the Wuhan lab).
No evidence to support this claim has been made public yet.
Very few people still believe the claim it was man made, though one of them is in fact a prominent figure. That belief though is not widely shared AFAIK.
The second wave, Matilda law and etc. It does not stop, the constant threat of fear-mongering from these guys.
I am an adult male in my fifties and can make my own decisions for the well being of my family and safety of loved ones and neighbors as I always have, I don't need any political person to dictate to me what I can, and can't do.
I wear a mask to go out, I wash and sterilize constantly and I am an ESSENTIAL WORKER to my wife and kids and they can attest to that.
Preventing, or significantly reducing the odds of, it from happening it again.
If it did "escape" from a lab, then international authorities need to force China, however they can, to employ tighter controls (at a minimum).
To point fingers and lay blame. It is important for our very own "Take No Responsiblity" leadership. It also serves to distract the populace with a good old fashioned witch-hunt while American deaths continue to mount. Wag the Dog.
I am not an expert, but from what I have read, once you know the origin, it's not important to almost anything other than propaganda how it was introduced to the population.
But that's what people focus (led by the media). Since this whole thing started all almost anyone wants to do is blame someone.
I guess it's human nature.
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into the human population. What's the value of that piece of information?
To point fingers and lay blame. It is important for our very own "Take No Responsiblity" leadership. It also serves to distract the populace with a good old fashioned witch-hunt while American deaths continue to mount. Wag the Dog.
That's the public utility of the "investigation". There are definitely useful things to learn though.
CNBC
@CNBC
·
2m
Norwegian Cruise Line says there's 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a 'going concern'
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into the human population. What's the value of that piece of information?
Preventing, or significantly reducing the odds of, it from happening it again.
If it did "escape" from a lab, then international authorities need to force China, however they can, to employ tighter controls (at a minimum).
You think you'll have to force China to do that? That doesn't seem like a real concern. They'll do that themselves.
Not clear how or if they voiced those concerns.
These quotes below are from the linked Business Insider article and cite WaPo reporters, it's an interesting article:
link - ( New Window )
You think you'll have to force China to do that? That doesn't seem like a real concern. They'll do that themselves.
Can't force China to do anything - look at their history. They have no regard for human rights, they've already reopened the wet markets.
China could care less what the world thinks. Eventually this virus will subside, people will forget(as usual) and the Chinese will continue with shoddy work and stealing manufacturing secrets from other countries with total disregard for international law.
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In comment 14896082 Heisenberg said:
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into the human population. What's the value of that piece of information?
Preventing, or significantly reducing the odds of, it from happening it again.
If it did "escape" from a lab, then international authorities need to force China, however they can, to employ tighter controls (at a minimum).
You think you'll have to force China to do that? That doesn't seem like a real concern. They'll do that themselves.
Yes, I don't think a government that regularly censors and lies to its constituents can be trusted to implement tighter controls.
Everyone who can work from home, continues to do so - no exceptions.
One thing that still confuses me, with all the talk about bringing sports back? What happens if a player on any team gets COVID? Does that team stop playing for 2 weeks because they are all quarantining or does only the impacting players quarantine? I haven’t seen an answer on this and don’t know how sports can come back if athletes still need to quarantine and all their teammates.
Quote:
into the human population. What's the value of that piece of information?
To point fingers and lay blame. It is important for our very own "Take No Responsiblity" leadership. It also serves to distract the populace with a good old fashioned witch-hunt while American deaths continue to mount. Wag the Dog.
Right, so i guess we shouldnt bother investigating murders and homicides either. I mean... unbelievable.
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You think you'll have to force China to do that? That doesn't seem like a real concern. They'll do that themselves.
Can't force China to do anything - look at their history. They have no regard for human rights, they've already reopened the wet markets.
China could care less what the world thinks. Eventually this virus will subside, people will forget(as usual) and the Chinese will continue with shoddy work and stealing manufacturing secrets from other countries with total disregard for international law.
This is my feeling as well. The way people have treated shelter in place tells me that all will be forgotten shortly after we're through this. The Chinese will have lower prices and it will be business as usual.
MAB - You might believe we don't need this - but I do want to see this type of reporting then make my own assessment.
Hey BillKo - My issue is with the inflammatory, misleading headlines and accusations when there isnt enough evidence on that matter. If they'd said, accurately, that there is a model floating around the CDC that FEMA is interested in/taking seriously, albeit at an early, unvetted stage, that shows deaths could spike back up in early June.... i've got no issue with that. Its factual.
Instead they fanned the flames that the White House, and by association Dr Fauci and Birx, are somehow perfectly fine with marching people to their deaths over the next 2 months. You dont see a problem with that reporting?
Above all, we just need more antibody testing. Someone threw out above that 300 million+ people could still be exposed. Personally my sense is that a much larger % of the population has already been exposed to this and developed some antibodies (see NYC which showed up to 25%, and LA county at 10%+)... you also have 33% of the 330 million population under age 25, and 60% of the population under age 45. Last I checked - granted this is still a week or so stale - fewer than 1,000 people had died across the nation under age 45.
So if lets say 5% of the age 45+ population has had this already - my gutt is this number feels conservative, but its just a gutt... we need testing *now* - then what we have are 125 million people or so (still a lot) over age 45 that remain at risk and need varying levels of protection moving forward.
As FMiC also said - and this narrative seems to have been lost over the past month or so and I have no idea why - the decision to shutdown was to protect our hospitals and the health care system. It was never about eliminating the virus before we went out again as that is impossible.
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I just want to know the GP is from here: how do we get back to work while still being vigilant about public safety?
Everyone who can work from home, continues to do so - no exceptions.
One thing that still confuses me, with all the talk about bringing sports back? What happens if a player on any team gets COVID? Does that team stop playing for 2 weeks because they are all quarantining or does only the impacting players quarantine? I haven’t seen an answer on this and don’t know how sports can come back if athletes still need to quarantine and all their teammates.
I'd guess for the athletes they treat and quarantine the individual. A lot of these guys could end up with the virus and may never know it based on their age and relative health.
Patients come in feeling a bit wonky and nonspecifically I'll but with pulseox below 70.
I think a better indicator than taking temperatures would be to have people stick their fingers in a pulse oximeter.
I ordered one off of Amazon a month back when the paranoia was getting to me. Backordered til June but probably not a bad toy to have.
CNBC
@CNBC
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2m
Norwegian Cruise Line says there's 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a 'going concern'
The Cruise industry is really no different than the airlines, or other of these types. The difference is that the airlines are getting a bailout, the cruise lines are not.
Having said that they are moving people from their cruises this year to cruises next year at substantial savings. The stock may take a hit, but for cruise lovers like me there are great deals to be had in summer 2021 (when all this mess should be gone hopefully).
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if there is any industry that seems like it could be obsoleted by this pandemic it's cruise ships.
CNBC
@CNBC
·
2m
Norwegian Cruise Line says there's 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a 'going concern'
The Cruise industry is really no different than the airlines, or other of these types. The difference is that the airlines are getting a bailout, the cruise lines are not.
Having said that they are moving people from their cruises this year to cruises next year at substantial savings. The stock may take a hit, but for cruise lovers like me there are great deals to be had in summer 2021 (when all this mess should be gone hopefully).
I had a cruise planned (RC) for the end of the month and they gave me the option of refund or 125% of the value towards a future cruise. I have until Dec 31 to decide what I want to do. If I want to book a cruise, I can go out two years. Need to travel by 4/30/22.
There's repeated narrative that this experience is going to bring about grand changes in the mass psychology/habits of society.
People will cook more/eat out less. Be less likely to attend mass gatherings. Will work toward having a healthier body, save more/have a nest egg. We'll have a greater appreciation and patronage of small business. On and on the list goes.
Maybe some will. Mostly, IMO, it's going to be a return to our past thinking. It's impossible to save because I NEED (insert your favorite luxury item you think is essential to life). Everything is the fault of big business/gov't, and I have little to no personal responsibility. The gov't sucked at bailing me out, but I'm going to continue to rely on them to bail me out next time, or in retirement. I'm fat and it's the fault of advertising/expecting people to be in reasonable shape is fat shaming/models being super skinny means it's unrealistic for people to be a healthy weight.
And to your point, the mass thinking that we need domestic production of goods will take a back seat to buying cheap goods made elsewhere.
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if there is any industry that seems like it could be obsoleted by this pandemic it's cruise ships.
CNBC
@CNBC
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2m
Norwegian Cruise Line says there's 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a 'going concern'
The Cruise industry is really no different than the airlines, or other of these types. The difference is that the airlines are getting a bailout, the cruise lines are not.
Having said that they are moving people from their cruises this year to cruises next year at substantial savings. The stock may take a hit, but for cruise lovers like me there are great deals to be had in summer 2021 (when all this mess should be gone hopefully).
Hugely different from the airlines. First, as DC mentions their foreign registration should take them right out of the bailout picture. Plus, airlines are vital for travel around the country and the world, for business travel, for hauling freight or mail, for getting people to school or funerals or to see granny (if she's still alive after this), and for a million other things. Cruise lines are for vacations.
To me it is like a tale of two systems.
For all the faults of the USA, if a novel virus that was causing pneumonia emerged in any state in the US, the doctors, staff and medical facility that identified it would be recognized as heroes in their field. I hope and think here would be immediate action to contain or try to stop this thing. I am certain there would be no effort to intimidate doctors voicing concerns, I do not think it would even be possible even if some person or entity had a motive to do so. I am not saying the US is infallible, but there is no way the initial doctors and experts expressing concerns would be forced to sign communist rumor confessions and be intimidated in a way that would send an intimidating wave out to all medical professionals silencing them. The government would not be searching the internet and other electronic methods of scientific and medical communication looking to censor communication on the new virus.
If I was calling the shots I would want to know everything possible there is to know about where the virus came from.
As far as the Fauci article, as I said good read, but he didn't say anything of import regarding the possible leak from a lab. He shouldn't, he should remain a trusted voice based on science , this is greatly needed and getting bogged down in questions like this ,threaten his value as a trusted voice.
I agree. I didn't mean they should, I as just stating a difference. As we saw with Carnival, and today with Norwegian, they will go borrow more money at whatever rates they have to pay, to bridge the gap. This is what they should do.
Also I get that cruises are vacations. There are people who have always hated cruises and there are people who love cruises. The first group certainly isn't going to sail in the future, the latter group is already taking advantage of the good deals and signing up. We just moved to a luxury cruise next May which included business class air. We love being on the water, getting 1st class treatment, and seeing multiple places on one trip.
The group in the middle may cruise, may not, we will see. However I bet the middle group goes back to what they were doing before, cruising occasionally.
Sure maybe these large cruise lines have less ships, but I do think they will be in business like today, and I do think they will be profitable (less ships but full). Also these ships will likely be cleaner and have increased safety protocols moving forward, especially the luxury lines. So this will be a good outcome.
All speculation of course.
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if there is any industry that seems like it could be obsoleted by this pandemic it's cruise ships.
CNBC
@CNBC
·
2m
Norwegian Cruise Line says there's 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a 'going concern'
The Cruise industry is really no different than the airlines, or other of these types. The difference is that the airlines are getting a bailout, the cruise lines are not.
Having said that they are moving people from their cruises this year to cruises next year at substantial savings. The stock may take a hit, but for cruise lovers like me there are great deals to be had in summer 2021 (when all this mess should be gone hopefully).
Besides what others have said on this topic about their efforts to skirt tax liability omitting them form bailout consideration, cruises are pure recreation. Airlines are a useful mode of transportation to facilitate business.
some might even say airlines are necessary, like a utility - which is part of the reason some have pushed to make airlines municipally owned vs private.
Also though, I do not support an airline industry bailout without qualifications - such as no stock buy backs, they need to maintain certain payroll/staffing levels, and I'd love to see executive bonuses tied to actual business performance metrics (ones that make sense - if it's possible)
Who knows? Lots of people will speculate though. A lot of mystery around this virus. Why wasn't Japan hit hard? They have NYC like population density and a late shutdown.
Probably a combo of things:
1. Don't trust China
2. Complete lockdown of Wuhan, not what Americans consider a lockdown. Pretty sure if you left your house in Wuhan, you were quickly escorted back by armed officers
3. Goes with #2, but likely a lot more surveillance of citizens allowing for better track & trace
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MAB - You might believe we don't need this - but I do want to see this type of reporting then make my own assessment.
Hey BillKo - My issue is with the inflammatory, misleading headlines and accusations when there isnt enough evidence on that matter. If they'd said, accurately, that there is a model floating around the CDC that FEMA is interested in/taking seriously, albeit at an early, unvetted stage, that shows deaths could spike back up in early June.... i've got no issue with that. Its factual.
Instead they fanned the flames that the White House, and by association Dr Fauci and Birx, are somehow perfectly fine with marching people to their deaths over the next 2 months. You dont see a problem with that reporting?
Just reading a headline is the absolute worst way to get your news. You're probably better off not even looking. Read the article, otherwise you are doing yourself a disservice. Why even visit the NYT site if you aren't going to read the article?
I've followed this pandemic like everyone else on here, if that article in anyway gave the impression that Fauci and Birx didn't have our best interest and are marching people to their deaths then we are reading two different articles.
On what planet have they ever given that impression?
I want reports to dig, and find information. Adminstrations across the board try to hide stuff and mislead on occassions.........I want information. And I found the article helpful.
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No new cases in a month? With a population of that size, areas of extreme density, and also a decent sized land mass? It's not just China that is unbelievable to me, it's India, Brazil, Japan, etc.
Sorry to belabor the point, but the US has so far and away many more cases/deaths than the rest of the world, and I can't wrap my head around why (and I consider myself a reasonably educated person on the matter)
The reporting of ot has been weird, not saying on pu4pose or any conspiracy to over inflate or under inflate, just weird..
for example new jersey, they report 3000 new cases and then you rwad the article and 300 people in the entire state were admitted to the hospital...
Their deaths ther was no steady trend up and down trend over the hump like new york, it is all over the place..
In new jerswy 400 will die one day and next day 50, it has just been all over the place..
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No new cases in a month? With a population of that size, areas of extreme density, and also a decent sized land mass? It's not just China that is unbelievable to me, it's India, Brazil, Japan, etc.
Sorry to belabor the point, but the US has so far and away many more cases/deaths than the rest of the world, and I can't wrap my head around why (and I consider myself a reasonably educated person on the matter)
We're the 3rd most populous country. The largest country is clearly lying about its numbers. India is interesting, as they aren't doing much testing, but did go with a lockdown.
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You think you'll have to force China to do that? That doesn't seem like a real concern. They'll do that themselves.
Can't force China to do anything - look at their history. They have no regard for human rights, they've already reopened the wet markets.
China could care less what the world thinks. Eventually this virus will subside, people will forget(as usual) and the Chinese will continue with shoddy work and stealing manufacturing secrets from other countries with total disregard for international law.
That's true, of course. But they will probably make changes after this pandemic, if for the sole reason that it will protect their own economy and prevent them from having to lock down again. They're not fools.
The rest of the US isn't seeing a down turn in cases yet.
Two of those health care workers are dead, and one remains hospitalized.
All three incidents, which are being investigated by Russian law enforcement authorities, have prompted intense discussion in the Russian press and on social media....
Kosyakin had previously criticized hospital administration for protective gear shortages on his social media and was questioned by the police for allegedly spreading fake news....
link - ( New Window )
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No new cases in a month? With a population of that size, areas of extreme density, and also a decent sized land mass? It's not just China that is unbelievable to me, it's India, Brazil, Japan, etc.
Sorry to belabor the point, but the US has so far and away many more cases/deaths than the rest of the world, and I can't wrap my head around why (and I consider myself a reasonably educated person on the matter)
There was a NYT article this past weekend about how no one really knows why some countries are hit hard while others are not. I think it's just too soon to know.
But I'll say this too. The story line from the CCP makes zero sense to me. Yeah, the lock down and all that, sure. But how did they even know to lock down so quickly? And this thing spreads silently through the rest of the world because people are infectious but asymptomatic for two weeks, but this didn't spread to all of China? This virus was in Wuhan, Hubei only? During Chinese New Year, which is the highest annual rate of travel in China? And all this started from one person eating a bat? Right.
Look, I know it's not unbiased or maybe even credible source, but the Epoch Times video (you can find it on YouTube) throws out more than a few good questions about this global China virus.
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No new cases in a month? With a population of that size, areas of extreme density, and also a decent sized land mass? It's not just China that is unbelievable to me, it's India, Brazil, Japan, etc.
Sorry to belabor the point, but the US has so far and away many more cases/deaths than the rest of the world, and I can't wrap my head around why (and I consider myself a reasonably educated person on the matter)
One thing may be that we actually got hit with 2 variations of this Virus. The mutated European one that hit the East Coast and the Asian one that hit the West Coast.
The rest of the US isn't seeing a down turn in cases yet.
daily new cases is not the best indicator
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The rest of the US isn't seeing a down turn in cases yet.
daily new cases is not the best indicator
Right - we've tested way more than anyone else so the numbers will be higher.
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In comment 14895970 BillKo said:
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MAB - You might believe we don't need this - but I do want to see this type of reporting then make my own assessment.
Hey BillKo - My issue is with the inflammatory, misleading headlines and accusations when there isnt enough evidence on that matter. If they'd said, accurately, that there is a model floating around the CDC that FEMA is interested in/taking seriously, albeit at an early, unvetted stage, that shows deaths could spike back up in early June.... i've got no issue with that. Its factual.
Instead they fanned the flames that the White House, and by association Dr Fauci and Birx, are somehow perfectly fine with marching people to their deaths over the next 2 months. You dont see a problem with that reporting?
Just reading a headline is the absolute worst way to get your news. You're probably better off not even looking. Read the article, otherwise you are doing yourself a disservice. Why even visit the NYT site if you aren't going to read the article?
I've followed this pandemic like everyone else on here, if that article in anyway gave the impression that Fauci and Birx didn't have our best interest and are marching people to their deaths then we are reading two different articles.
On what planet have they ever given that impression?
I want reports to dig, and find information. Adminstrations across the board try to hide stuff and mislead on occassions.........I want information. And I found the article helpful.
The article was linked here and I did read the article which very clearly tried to equate a draft, unvetted model circulating within the CDC (which even its author, a Johns Hopskins scientist has since downplayed) .... to something the Trump administration was using and ignoring as it reopened the country. Its an example of "journalism" at its worst.
But people clearly will believe what they want to believe at this point, which is why this whole topic has unfortunately become completely politicized.
Agree to disagree.
?? You're an epidemiologist now? That's quite a prognostication about the peak coming in 3 weeks.
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The rest of the US isn't seeing a down turn in cases yet.
daily new cases is not the best indicator
The WH guidelines for reopening disagree
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In comment 14896427 Heisenberg said:
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The rest of the US isn't seeing a down turn in cases yet.
daily new cases is not the best indicator
The WH guidelines for reopening disagree
Governors are looking at daily cases going into a hospital, that is a real time indicator, daily positive cases is not, it is a week to 2 week lag..
If that is what they were going to go by you would never reopen because as you test more that number will continue to rise
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Real talk, I'm genuinely wondering if I should continue to live up in the immediate NYC area (I'm in Jersey City and was initially looking at either staying here, going to Hoboken, or moving to Queens).
Rents haven't dropped, I have no idea when I'll be commuting to Manhattan for work (I'm in a last round at a company after 7 rounds, fingers crossed, though theyre clearly slowplaying it on purpose...)
Why drop $1800-$2500 a month for a 1 BR or studio if everything I love about living in NYC won't exist for a year? Might as well move to like, New Brunswick or something, and pay $1200-1400 for a much nicer, bigger place by the train station.
All my friends (and my entire life) are up here, but the value has just completely dissipated.
Andddd that's my stream of consciousness rant. Thank you for listening to my TED talk.
Daily new cases have plateaued since late March, despite significantly more testing today than back then... and hospitalization and death rates have been steadily coming down past few weeks.
Of course, we could re-spike... no one knows. What I do know is you quoted CNN, which is partisan politics, and I'm guessing was based off of that unvetted, preliminary model (one of thousands of models) currently bouncing around government agency desks for review. Even the author of that particular model has denounced it as NOT a forecast... yet you blindly relay it as truth here.
Told me all I need to know, and I should have just ignored.
here ya go - ( New Window )
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So we passed our peak? Let us in on when that day was?
Daily new cases have plateaued since late March, despite significantly more testing today than back then... and hospitalization and death rates have been steadily coming down past few weeks.
Of course, we could re-spike... no one knows. What I do know is you quoted CNN, which is partisan politics, and I'm guessing was based off of that unvetted, preliminary model (one of thousands of models) currently bouncing around government agency desks for review. Even the author of that particular model has denounced it as NOT a forecast... yet you blindly relay it as truth here.
Told me all I need to know, and I should have just ignored. here ya go - ( New Window )
something something fake news something something enemy of the people
What I do know is you quoted CNN, which is partisan politics,
Out of curiosity, where do you get your info?
A month ago (April 5th) was the highest approval ratings in his entire tenure. Then on April 23rd, he went on to recommend people take hotshots of Lysol while shoving lightbulbs up their ass. Consequently, he realizes that he can't take the podium without saying something stupid. And he can't stand not be the center of attention so the task force has no use to him.
Looks like IMHE has updated their model and the projections are significantly higher, especially outside of of New York. Their expected death count through August 4th now stands at 134,475 (range between 95,092 and 242,890). This is 62,042 more deaths than was projected in their April 29th update model, with 54,225 more deaths projected outside of New York.
Their June 1st projection now stands at 890.
"These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
It still doesn't show anything to indicate that we'll peak in June 1st, just that it's going to be a slower decline than originally projected.
And the report of winding down the task force concerns you, because? Do you even know what that statement means?
It doesn't mean efforts will stop toward coordinating the US response, and Fauci and Birx will still be at the WH, but other people on the task force will be allowed to return to their traditional place of work (other federal agencies) for coordination of the response from that agency.
It's also not expected to happen until late May.
Not sure the need for consternation over it.
If the issue necessitated a task force to begin with, it just seems shocking to be discussing shutting down the task force on a day where 2500 people were reported dead.
Either (1) the task force was a fraud to begin with, or (2) it’s irresponsibly premature to be starting the process of winding it down. I’m not sure where occurred for a rational person to believe the task force is no longer necessary with so many people dying each day. Are we really numb to this much death?
Hopefully there’s good news re vaccines and treatments posted here soon because that’s what I keep looking for.
Why's it rustiling your jimmies so much? Is this BBI thread your only outlet for COVID news?
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More than a thousand people are dying of this every day. Usually closer to 2000. WTF?
And the report of winding down the task force concerns you, because? Do you even know what that statement means?
It doesn't mean efforts will stop toward coordinating the US response, and Fauci and Birx will still be at the WH, but other people on the task force will be allowed to return to their traditional place of work (other federal agencies) for coordination of the response from that agency.
It's also not expected to happen until late May.
Not sure the need for consternation over it.
I know what it means, and POTUS is always telling us he can get people involved at a moment's notice when he needs them.
And I think everyone knows Birx, Fauci, et all aren't being zipped off to MARS.
Just seems strange to break it up in May, when NY and NY should just be ramping up the opening.
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In comment 14896581 Metnut said:
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More than a thousand people are dying of this every day. Usually closer to 2000. WTF?
And the report of winding down the task force concerns you, because? Do you even know what that statement means?
It doesn't mean efforts will stop toward coordinating the US response, and Fauci and Birx will still be at the WH, but other people on the task force will be allowed to return to their traditional place of work (other federal agencies) for coordination of the response from that agency.
It's also not expected to happen until late May.
Not sure the need for consternation over it.
I know what it means, and POTUS is always telling us he can get people involved at a moment's notice when he needs them.
And I think everyone knows Birx, Fauci, et all aren't being zipped off to MARS.
Just seems strange to break it up in May, when NY and NY should just be ramping up the opening.
LOL....NY and NJ.
And Mars...not capitalized!
Link - ( New Window )
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5/1 - 1947
5/2 - 1426
5/3 - 1313
5/4 - 1240
First time since early April we've had 4 straight days under 2000 and this time the numbers are heading down instead of up.
5/1 - 1947
5/2 - 1426
5/3 - 1313
5/4 - 1240
First time since early April we've had 4 straight days under 2000 and this time the numbers are heading down instead of up.
There has been somewhat of a trend the last few weeks where Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all have fewer death totals then the rest of the week (IE: Today we are at 2284).
I think every case of re-infection (South Korea is where I first read about them) has been refuted as either false positive or the person never tested negative twice (which I think was the indicator of the virus being gone).
Here is the latest. The reports say they don't believe his murder is related to his work, but no motive has been discovered.
Two shootings that happened over the weekend in Ross Township appear to be a murder-suicide, according to police.
On May 2, police said 37-year-old Dr. Bing Liu was found dead in his home on Elm Court from apparent gunshot wounds to his head, neck and torso. Investigators say they now believe his death is a homicide.....
link - ( New Window )
Everyone needs a break from the news.
on the positive side
Well, what was the time between tests? I think it would fairly unusual for such a quick reinfection.
-Better production
-Better work/life balance for employees
-Less commute time
-Companies save massively on real estate costs
Will companies embrace work at home going forward?
-Better production
-Better work/life balance for employees
-Less commute time
-Companies save massively on real estate costs
Will companies embrace work at home going forward?
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I sure hope so. I am really disliking the thought of commuting on packed trains for 2 hours a day. I can work from home just fine and the benefit of being in the office (Philly) is really not there anymore because people won’t be doing in person meetings as much and even close collaboration amongst coworkers will probably take a backseat.
Nationwide and Barclays are already talking work from home. On the road to recovery it only makes sense for more to follow. Switching to remote is a sunk cost now so why not?
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That being said, if I still lived and worked in NYC and had to do any type of commute beyond walking to work, I would do anything to work from home 100% of the time. The NYC work commute, something I did for only one year, was without question going to take years off of my life. I'm not sure I'd ever make even close to enough money to make me even consider it being worth it. The commute was killing me one day at a time.
God bless all of you who do it. My commute to my office is 13 minutes right now. On a bad day 15 minutes.
Chances are this is the same thing that happened in Korea and China and he did not get re-infected.
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In comment 14896498 XBRONX said:
What I do know is you quoted CNN, which is partisan politics,
Out of curiosity, where do you get your info?
It’s a great question. CNN and msnbc are so far left, I’m not even sure cnn is much better than msnbc now ... and pro Biden it’s become an impossible read Just look at today’s headlines on cnn.com and I know their digital content head - an Emory guy. Fox is obviously far right. I’ve always voted with my wallet so WSJ I guess - but even trumps salt disaster cost me so much money so not a fan. If anyone has suggestions - unfortunately. ‘Just facts’ doesnt sell eyeballs or subscriptions anymore. If anyone has a nonbiased view I’d love to hear it.
But it’s sure as fuck not cnn I know too many people on air for them and working for them that if you think it’s mainstream - sorry you’re a moron
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In comment 14896530 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14896498 XBRONX said:
What I do know is you quoted CNN, which is partisan politics,
Out of curiosity, where do you get your info?
It’s a great question. CNN and msnbc are so far left, I’m not even sure cnn is much better than msnbc now ... and pro Biden it’s become an impossible read Just look at today’s headlines on cnn.com and I know their digital content head - an Emory guy. Fox is obviously far right. I’ve always voted with my wallet so WSJ I guess - but even trumps salt disaster cost me so much money so not a fan. If anyone has suggestions - unfortunately. ‘Just facts’ doesnt sell eyeballs or subscriptions anymore. If anyone has a nonbiased view I’d love to hear it.
But it’s sure as fuck not cnn I know too many people on air for them and working for them that if you think it’s mainstream - sorry you’re a moron
WSJ has good straight news but the way they decide the stories they tend to feature/cover has a political bent to it, and their op-ed section obviously is what it is. Unfortunately one needs to look at many different sources to determine what to believe. If you're data driven, check 538; they admit most (if not all) of them lean left but I truly believe they try to be as nonbiased as they can (which you can't really say for a lot of national news these days).
It’s a great question. CNN and msnbc are so far left, I’m not even sure cnn is much better than msnbc now ... and pro Biden it’s become an impossible read Just look at today’s headlines on cnn.com and I know their digital content head - an Emory guy. Fox is obviously far right. I’ve always voted with my wallet so WSJ I guess - but even trumps salt disaster cost me so much money so not a fan. If anyone has suggestions - unfortunately. ‘Just facts’ doesnt sell eyeballs or subscriptions anymore. If anyone has a nonbiased view I’d love to hear it.
But it’s sure as fuck not cnn I know too many people on air for them and working for them that if you think it’s mainstream - sorry you’re a moron
I really wonder what kind of cockeyed, insane view of the world you have to have to view mediocre, corporatist, bothsider loving media outlets like CNN and MSNBC as super far left. Show me on the doll where Wolf Blitzer touched you.
Would your head literally explode if you read an issue of the New Yorker or The Atlantic?
5/1 - 1947
5/2 - 1426
5/3 - 1313
5/4 - 1240
First time since early April we've had 4 straight days under 2000 and this time the numbers are heading down instead of up.
5/5 - 2,350
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It’s a great question. CNN and msnbc are so far left, I’m not even sure cnn is much better than msnbc now ... and pro Biden it’s become an impossible read Just look at today’s headlines on cnn.com and I know their digital content head - an Emory guy. Fox is obviously far right. I’ve always voted with my wallet so WSJ I guess - but even trumps salt disaster cost me so much money so not a fan. If anyone has suggestions - unfortunately. ‘Just facts’ doesnt sell eyeballs or subscriptions anymore. If anyone has a nonbiased view I’d love to hear it.
But it’s sure as fuck not cnn I know too many people on air for them and working for them that if you think it’s mainstream - sorry you’re a moron
I really wonder what kind of cockeyed, insane view of the world you have to have to view mediocre, corporatist, bothsider loving media outlets like CNN and MSNBC as super far left. Show me on the doll where Wolf Blitzer touched you.
Would your head literally explode if you read an issue of the New Yorker or The Atlantic?
LMAO...this is a great post that is so spot on.
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In comment 14896817 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
It’s a great question. CNN and msnbc are so far left, I’m not even sure cnn is much better than msnbc now ... and pro Biden it’s become an impossible read Just look at today’s headlines on cnn.com and I know their digital content head - an Emory guy. Fox is obviously far right. I’ve always voted with my wallet so WSJ I guess - but even trumps salt disaster cost me so much money so not a fan. If anyone has suggestions - unfortunately. ‘Just facts’ doesnt sell eyeballs or subscriptions anymore. If anyone has a nonbiased view I’d love to hear it.
But it’s sure as fuck not cnn I know too many people on air for them and working for them that if you think it’s mainstream - sorry you’re a moron
I really wonder what kind of cockeyed, insane view of the world you have to have to view mediocre, corporatist, bothsider loving media outlets like CNN and MSNBC as super far left. Show me on the doll where Wolf Blitzer touched you.
Would your head literally explode if you read an issue of the New Yorker or The Atlantic?
LMAO...this is a great post that is so spot on.
Plenty of high quality unbiased news outlets...
https://www.adfontesmedia.com/product/media-bias-chart-5-0-downloadable-image-and-standard-license/?v=402f03a963ba
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Eh, there is no reason to think any of those allegations will stick. I've learned that lesson.
Ad Fontes, who created the linked "media bias chart" doesn't release its data sets or coding methodology and does not submit its results to peer review. In fact, it's "article grading rubric" is copyrighted, which means if some team did try to independently replicate and check their results, they might be subject to a lawsuit.
Without any serious way to check or examine Ad Fontes results, their chart is fairly worthless beyond something to post on forums and social media for internet points.
On a personal note, the idea that MSNBC is to the left of and less reliable than Vice is insane.
On a
I’ll change my mind when there’s data and science indicating a considerable danger. At some point we all need to overcome fear and live our lives.
By the way, treatable and preventable diseases, war, poverty and hunger and whole host of other things will kill many more children today than the China virus. Not saying that’s cause to ignore the impact of this horrific public health catastrophe but the world is pretty inured and unmoved by the needless suffering of children.
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in children now changing anyone's mind about masks, the young and healthy, etc.?
I’ll change my mind when there’s data and science indicating a considerable danger. At some point we all need to overcome fear and live our lives.
By the way, treatable and preventable diseases, war, poverty and hunger and whole host of other things will kill many more children today than the China virus. Not saying that’s cause to ignore the impact of this horrific public health catastrophe but the world is pretty inured and unmoved by the needless suffering of children.
It may not even be covid related, it was kawasaki disease and the times was trying to link it to covid..
Matt wants everyone to wesr mask at all times, even when you are on your own property by yourself..
My experience when I've gone out is that a lot of people are wearing masks. When I do the weekly run to the grocery store, it has been mandatory for the workers to have masks on and I'd say there are very few people who don't have masks on, and the majority of them are dropping off a Redbox movie or quickly getting Starbucks.
What we shouldn't get to is a point where there is "mask shaming", especially when there is so much conflicting information about masks, the different types that exist and the effectiveness of each. Hell, I wear a mask in public and can't tell you exactly why that is. And it will be quite absurd to expect people to have masks on while sitting on a restaurant patio or when restaurants reopen indoors.
We'll probably get to the point where masks encrusted with crap will sicken more people who use them than protect others!
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In comment 14896870 Matt M. said:
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in children now changing anyone's mind about masks, the young and healthy, etc.?
I’ll change my mind when there’s data and science indicating a considerable danger. At some point we all need to overcome fear and live our lives.
By the way, treatable and preventable diseases, war, poverty and hunger and whole host of other things will kill many more children today than the China virus. Not saying that’s cause to ignore the impact of this horrific public health catastrophe but the world is pretty inured and unmoved by the needless suffering of children.
It may not even be covid related, it was kawasaki disease and the times was trying to link it to covid..
Matt wants everyone to wesr mask at all times, even when you are on your own property by yourself..
I've actually heard that link come up several times (and I haven't read a newspaper or even seen the news in months).
It makes sense because there definitely is a link between COVID, (obviously) inflammation, heart disease, and the coagulation system.
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In comment 14896921 trueblueinpw said:
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In comment 14896870 Matt M. said:
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in children now changing anyone's mind about masks, the young and healthy, etc.?
I’ll change my mind when there’s data and science indicating a considerable danger. At some point we all need to overcome fear and live our lives.
By the way, treatable and preventable diseases, war, poverty and hunger and whole host of other things will kill many more children today than the China virus. Not saying that’s cause to ignore the impact of this horrific public health catastrophe but the world is pretty inured and unmoved by the needless suffering of children.
It may not even be covid related, it was kawasaki disease and the times was trying to link it to covid..
Matt wants everyone to wesr mask at all times, even when you are on your own property by yourself..
I've actually heard that link come up several times (and I haven't read a newspaper or even seen the news in months).
It makes sense because there definitely is a link between COVID, (obviously) inflammation, heart disease, and the coagulation system.
it may be related but it just feels everytime there is something that happens they link it to covid, hard to take everything seriously until it is proven..
Sorry this entire premise is false .. this is the one thing that the Fox News fanboys don't understand .. Those on the other side don't consume news like you do ! I cut my cable years ago - I don't remember the last time I watched CNN or MSNBC.. Most people I know don't watch those networks either . That is why their RATINGS ARE LOWER THAN Fox News. Yet I somehow am more informed than Fox News Viewers ? Why?? I guess it is because to get educated on current events I just google something I am curious about and find stories from trust sources - Not really hard to do AP , BBC PBS .. . The first thing a cult tells you is that everyone else is lying .. but the facts are out there .. and are verifiable .. It isn't really that hard .. and yet it seems to be for many in this country .
I hope I make it!
19,510 dead, classified as homicide, in all of calendar 2019.
I hope I make it!
Probably driving fatality especially if you are posting to BBI while driving.
I hope I make it!
It's like swimming with the sharks without a cage.
this is dated, but this is what you're facing:
@justin_hart
·
8m
Mind-blowing stat:
- The 44 counties within 100 miles of NYC have half of all US #COVID19 deaths (28K)
- That's 67 deaths per 100K population
- Other similar-sized counties had ~12 deaths per 100K
- If the NYC 44 had that same ratio... total US deaths would have just hit ~20K
You just have to look at the Int'l travel into the U.S. especially from China and NYC is by far the heaviest. Philly also has that. Then all the inter connection between NYC and that radius. Then you see where domestic travel goes from that area and you see other hotspots. The big shockers to me have been California but evidently they shut down a couple weeks before NY and I thought Vegas would be really bad as well.
You just have to look at the Int'l travel into the U.S. especially from China and NYC is by far the heaviest. Philly also has that. Then all the inter connection between NYC and that radius. Then you see where domestic travel goes from that area and you see other hotspots. The big shockers to me have been California but evidently they shut down a couple weeks before NY and I thought Vegas would be really bad as well.
cases make sense, of course I'd expect NYC to have more but I don't understand the fatality rate difference for NYC+ and other high population density cities. Unless it's just due to disproportionate testing and once NYC tests more the fatality rate will go down to the consistent average (if there is such a thing).
Joel Engel
@joelengel
·
28m
New York:
28% of the country's confirmed cases and 41% of the deaths.
California, with nearly twice the population of NY:
4.6% of cases and 3.5% of deaths.
???
Covid19 came to NYC via Europe not China. NYC also had it first before anyone else so NYC got the brunt of the virus spread before the lowdown -- also numbers are a few weeks ahead of everyone else
- Mass transit is unfortunately a breeding ground for transmission
Joel Engel
@joelengel
·
28m
New York:
28% of the country's confirmed cases and 41% of the deaths.
California, with nearly twice the population of NY:
4.6% of cases and 3.5% of deaths.
???
The death percentage is directly tied to who has been infected. I would gather that those with the higher percentage are so because the virus infected more of the vulnerable population (nursing/assisted living homes, those receiving home care). Then you have the obesity and diabetes as two big factors.
I really have not seen a detailed graph of the deaths with what age/conditions they had (co factors). As important as testing and tracking is I think I think equally important is that data. This allow plans to be implemented in opening things up but it would be very challenging to put mandates in that would best protect people who are in danger based on their conditions imo.
Joel Engel
@joelengel
·
28m
New York:
28% of the country's confirmed cases and 41% of the deaths.
California, with nearly twice the population of NY:
4.6% of cases and 3.5% of deaths.
???
I don't see how these numbers are even relevant. Almost half of NY state's population is in NYC and the immediate surrounding area and gets a lot more international travel to/from.
Seems like a worthless comparison. Why not talk about Texas' numbers too comparing to NYC?
Joel Engel
@joelengel
·
28m
New York:
28% of the country's confirmed cases and 41% of the deaths.
California, with nearly twice the population of NY:
4.6% of cases and 3.5% of deaths.
???
I dont know about new york, but in new jersey half their deaths are from nursing homes
I hope I make it!
Can you get swabbed and bled before you go. And then about once a week after you get back?
TIA
I haven't seen a graph of this, but my sense is if you remove nursing homes nation wide the fatalities would drop in half or at least significantly.
In fact if you remove nursing homes, people over 70, and people with diabetes, high blood pressure, asthma, or heart issues the death toll would be minimal IMO.
Does NYC metro area have more nursing homes than the average other city metro area?
Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
·
19h
(BN) * CAPITAL ONE TO KEEP MOST WORKERS HOME UNTIL AT LEAST SEPTEMBER
(h/t NatAlliance) $COF
Quote:
but dated, NYC tweet (from 5/1)
Joel Engel
@joelengel
·
28m
New York:
28% of the country's confirmed cases and 41% of the deaths.
California, with nearly twice the population of NY:
4.6% of cases and 3.5% of deaths.
???
I dont know about new york, but in new jersey half their deaths are from nursing homes
The nursing homes and handling was a travesty. Governments really messed up with this.
I haven't seen a graph of this, but my sense is if you remove nursing homes nation wide the fatalities would drop in half or at least significantly.
In fact if you remove nursing homes, people over 70, and people with diabetes, high blood pressure, asthma, or heart issues the death toll would be minimal IMO.
Does NYC metro area have more nursing homes than the average other city metro area?
The number of total nursing homes doesn't really matter its the density of them and their proximity to the staff who's also living in densely populated areas.
I would wager the % of nursing home staff taking public transportation to their jobs in the NYC metro area is larger than anywhere else in the country by a considerable margin. Add in all the family visits before they were restricted and there you go.
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In comment 14897005 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but dated, NYC tweet (from 5/1)
Joel Engel
@joelengel
·
28m
New York:
28% of the country's confirmed cases and 41% of the deaths.
California, with nearly twice the population of NY:
4.6% of cases and 3.5% of deaths.
???
I dont know about new york, but in new jersey half their deaths are from nursing homes
The nursing homes and handling was a travesty. Governments really messed up with this.
It's not just (or always) the governments. I feel like a lot of nursing homes have really poor policies in general. Even without COVID, they are ripe for disease just due to the cleanliness of the environment or procedural habits and policies. Besides COVID, there is a large (and dangerous) Candida Auris outbreak that is primarily impacting nursing homes. Also, wrt COVID I hear that a lot of the caregivers work at multiple places (maybe because the nursing homes are owned by umbrella companies?) transport the virus from nursing home to nursing home.
I have yet to see a nursing home that isn't a shit hole.
At least 1/3 of our population is "at risk". This isn't simply just an old people thing (even if it is a huge chunk of it).
This is incorrect and a complete distortion of their findings - their projection of 2.2m was without social distancing or any other mitigations (you can read for yourself on page 7 of their report published March 16 and linked in the article below which covers most of the high level). The title of the report was literally "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand", and it proceeded to model several different intervention scenarios, including the "do nothing" outcome you are incorrectly asserting as "with a lot of certainty".
And here are 2 quotes from their now ex-team director Neil Ferguson, who resigned a few days ago because he got caught in an affair during the lockdown, this first one is from March 16th and the 2nd is the most recent quote I could find which was from a few days ago when he resigned. It does not seem like he "doesn't believe in social distancing".
“We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures – most notably, large scale social distancing – will need to be in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes available.”
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand - ( New Window )
There should have been staff who were tested, isolated in a hotel or some time of safe environment and protected to carry out their job functions. Then you set up some kind of rotation. The government would provide the resources and heavy incentive pay to the staff in these to help compensate for the sacrifices. I mentioned this very early in this thread along with the visiting nurses who take care of patients at their residences as a high priority.
but the NY policy of forcing nursing homes to accept COVID-19 positive patients was not one that ever made sense - without second guessing.
the elderly were the first group identified to be "at-risk'
LA antibody results - 2-4% (and these were the numbers considered 20-50x higher than expected)
So the question is why there were so many more cases in NY + NYC compared to LA. Weather and mass transit are 2 things that jump out to me having living in both places as key potential factors, and it also could have just arrived in either place earlier.
(Bill or someone else may have more updated numbers, I haven't been tracking things as closely since they were initially announced and I know I've seen Cuomo has been updating them)
Quote:
in children now changing anyone's mind about masks, the young and healthy, etc.?
I’ll change my mind when there’s data and science indicating a considerable danger. At some point we all need to overcome fear and live our lives.
By the way, treatable and preventable diseases, war, poverty and hunger and whole host of other things will kill many more children today than the China virus. Not saying that’s cause to ignore the impact of this horrific public health catastrophe but the world is pretty inured and unmoved by the needless suffering of children.
"the China virus"?
That pretty much said everything you needed to say.
I don't say anything to anybody but the only effect this virus is having on me is that I'm becoming an inwardly cranky old man every time I venture out and see either entire families clogging up the aisles while aimlessly browsing at Lowe's or people without masks or without the decency to stay six feet away from me or going the wrong way down clearly marked one-way aisles because no one tells them what to do.
It's made it instantly easier to judge people whom I abhor from a distance.
I'm not happy about it. I really do miss the pleasant daily interactions I used to have with strangers and I don't like to prejudge anyone but apparently covid is turning me into a judgy asshole.
I don't say anything to anybody but the only effect this virus is having on me is that I'm becoming an inwardly cranky old man every time I venture out and see either entire families clogging up the aisles while aimlessly browsing at Lowe's or people without masks or without the decency to stay six feet away from me or going the wrong way down clearly marked one-way aisles because no one tells them what to do.
It's made it instantly easier to judge people whom I abhor from a distance.
I'm not happy about it. I really do miss the pleasant daily interactions I used to have with strangers and I don't like to prejudge anyone but apparently covid is turning me into a judgy asshole.
no mask in a store they deserve to be yelled at..
but do you get mad at people in their own yard playing with their kids and no mask?
Joel Engel
@joelengel
·
28m
New York:
28% of the country's confirmed cases and 41% of the deaths.
California, with nearly twice the population of NY:
4.6% of cases and 3.5% of deaths.
???
Deaths through 04/14:
USA: 30,085
NY: 15,647 (52.0%)
Deaths from last 3 weeks (since 04/15)
USA: 42,048
NY: 9,608 (22.9%)
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/
NYC is obviously the epicenter of this, with population density unlike anywhere else in this country along with being an international travel hub.
But in recent weeks, this has definitely become about more than NYC. As NYC seems to be doing much better, the rest of the country is now starting to feel the effects of this.
Link - ( New Window )
Glad you're linking an anti-vax nut...
lol wtf
Glad you're linking an anti-vax nut...
Thanks for the Ad Hominum/ Straw Man attack, appreciate it. Interested to know if you actually have any valid disagreements/ or points with what the interviewers/ documentary said.
By the way, she's been accused of doctoring data and publications in the past. GREAT resource to link to.
but also from what I've read the WPI sounds cultish and their charges against her sounded petty and vindictive to me.
I wouldn't trust any of them.
I have read her hypothesis on COVID-19 and while I don't believe it to be true and personally wouldn't share her rantings to give them a platform, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth in it.
So much unknown and inconsistent with this virus, no one seems to be able to explain. Leads to conspiracy theories.
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I wear a mask when I'm out and it's to protect others. I know darn well it does very little for me. Probably doesn't do much for others either but at least I'm giving the appearance of caring.
I don't say anything to anybody but the only effect this virus is having on me is that I'm becoming an inwardly cranky old man every time I venture out and see either entire families clogging up the aisles while aimlessly browsing at Lowe's or people without masks or without the decency to stay six feet away from me or going the wrong way down clearly marked one-way aisles because no one tells them what to do.
It's made it instantly easier to judge people whom I abhor from a distance.
I'm not happy about it. I really do miss the pleasant daily interactions I used to have with strangers and I don't like to prejudge anyone but apparently covid is turning me into a judgy asshole.
no mask in a store they deserve to be yelled at..
but do you get mad at people in their own yard playing with their kids and no mask?
I'm not a maniac. I live in a walkable neighborhood. EVERYBODY walks. You can't go 10 minutes even before the virus hit without seeing someone walk by. If you're outside on the street you can very easily and reasonably exercise good care and social distance. I haven't gone back to the golf course yet but I wouldn't want to wear one there either. But inside the closed quarters of a food store or hardware store? It's just being polite.
but also from what I've read the WPI sounds cultish and their charges against her sounded petty and vindictive to me.
I wouldn't trust any of them.
I have read her hypothesis on COVID-19 and while I don't believe it to be true and personally wouldn't share her rantings to give them a platform, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth in it.
So much unknown and inconsistent with this virus, no one seems to be able to explain. Leads to conspiracy theories.
I don’t know much about her, and haven’t read any of her work. But I found it funny that many here have come out with the classic ad hominem attacks to try and discredit her with the “anti-vaxxer” statements. It was actually brought up in the interview and she said she is an immuno-therapist and is in no way against vaccines, she spent a great deal of her life developing them. Wonder if people here actually listened to what she is saying, thought she had some reasonable points.
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from what I've read is a dangerous Anti-Vaxxer who deserves all the criticism and scorn and people do need to be careful sharing her thoughts.
but also from what I've read the WPI sounds cultish and their charges against her sounded petty and vindictive to me.
I wouldn't trust any of them.
I have read her hypothesis on COVID-19 and while I don't believe it to be true and personally wouldn't share her rantings to give them a platform, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth in it.
So much unknown and inconsistent with this virus, no one seems to be able to explain. Leads to conspiracy theories.
I don’t know much about her, and haven’t read any of her work. But I found it funny that many here have come out with the classic ad hominem attacks to try and discredit her with the “anti-vaxxer” statements. It was actually brought up in the interview and she said she is an immuno-therapist and is in no way against vaccines, she spent a great deal of her life developing them. Wonder if people here actually listened to what she is saying, thought she had some reasonable points.
You should read up on her. When someone tells me "don't trust that source" I don't automatically not trust the source I try and learn why.
Mikovits believes that animal tissue being used in vaccines has been linked to autism, CFS, and other issues. No evidence has ever been presented to that effect, so she can call herself whatever she wants, but I see no issue with someone putting her in the anti-vaxxer bucket. Her recklessly presenting that information stokes fear and breeds bad opinions - usually from desperate parents.
That said, I don't think everything she says is bad, so people should read for themselves and decide what to consider and what not to.
But when you share something from her knowing her controversial background you should be prepared for the backlash.
the mindless "I'm not reading something from that source" without forming their own opinion or knowing why is also why we're stupid.
I've never read proof she intentionally faked research. All I read is her conclusions came under fire for being wrong, but not fraudulent. But I'm not an expert in the life and times of Judy Mikovits.
showed She was FIRED as research director of the Whittemore Peterson Institute for falsifying data and later jailed for stealing equipment from the Institute ..
and yet we have to have a discussion about her Google video ... as if she is a legitimate scientist !
.. WTF people be better!
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from what I've read is a dangerous Anti-Vaxxer who deserves all the criticism and scorn and people do need to be careful sharing her thoughts.
but also from what I've read the WPI sounds cultish and their charges against her sounded petty and vindictive to me.
I wouldn't trust any of them.
I have read her hypothesis on COVID-19 and while I don't believe it to be true and personally wouldn't share her rantings to give them a platform, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some truth in it.
So much unknown and inconsistent with this virus, no one seems to be able to explain. Leads to conspiracy theories.
I don’t know much about her, and haven’t read any of her work. But I found it funny that many here have come out with the classic ad hominem attacks to try and discredit her with the “anti-vaxxer” statements. It was actually brought up in the interview and she said she is an immuno-therapist and is in no way against vaccines, she spent a great deal of her life developing them. Wonder if people here actually listened to what she is saying, thought she had some reasonable points.
What is an "immunotherapist"?
Not to pile on here but as you can see from the quote below your link is an absolute nutjob who falsified research and when caught she decided to steal all the research and refused to supply samples she said proved her correct.
The researcher is Judy A. Mikovits, PhD, who until September 29 was research director at the Whittemore Peterson Institute (WPI) for Neuro-Immune Disease in Reno, Nevada. Dr. Mikovits led the WPI research team that has been mired in controversy since reporting an apparent association between xenotropic murine leukemia virus–related virus (XMRV) and CFS. As previously reported by Medscape Medical News, attempts by others to replicate the findings were unsuccessful, and the emerging consensus is that the association was an artifact of laboratory contamination. Parts of the paper were subsequently withdrawn, and 2 of the original authors asked to have their names removed from the paper.
Dr. Mikovits' departure from WPI apparently was due not to problems with the XMRV study but to her refusal to turn over cell samples to fellow WPI researcher Vincent C. Lombardi, PhD. Dr. Lombardi, who was first author on the original XMRV paper, is now interim research director at WPI.
After Dr. Mikovits' departure, WPI discovered that 12 to 20 laboratory notebooks and flash drives containing years of research data were also missing.
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That’s more than enough evidence to completely discredit anything she ever says again.
I've never read proof she intentionally faked research. All I read is her conclusions came under fire for being wrong, but not fraudulent. But I'm not an expert in the life and times of Judy Mikovits.
It’s a retraction from Nature.
You don’t have to be an expert in academia to determine what that means...
I don't know about the sentiment, but I'm pretty sure it will end up reducing the anti-vaxxers...
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In comment 14897248 kicker said:
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That’s more than enough evidence to completely discredit anything she ever says again.
I've never read proof she intentionally faked research. All I read is her conclusions came under fire for being wrong, but not fraudulent. But I'm not an expert in the life and times of Judy Mikovits.
It’s a retraction from Nature.
You don’t have to be an expert in academia to determine what that means...
Ok, well I don't know what it means, but you can just read above and see what I saw. I had never read she had even been accused of faking research. I did read her conclusion was challenged and subsequently the paper was retracted. I never saw he defend it beyond that.
whatever, doesn't matter, we agree on the sketchy nature of the source.
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this is why we can't have nice things.
I don't know about the sentiment, but I'm pretty sure it will end up reducing the anti-vaxxers...
I think it depends. I have read a lot of anecdotal "if I'm forced to take a vaccine, I'm not going to do it"
I don't think people like that level of control.
Not sure if that's anti-vax or anti-government control or just a tiny percent who feel that way.
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In comment 14897290 Eric on Li said:
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this is why we can't have nice things.
I don't know about the sentiment, but I'm pretty sure it will end up reducing the anti-vaxxers...
I think it depends. I have read a lot of anecdotal "if I'm forced to take a vaccine, I'm not going to do it"
I don't think people like that level of control.
Not sure if that's anti-vax or anti-government control or just a tiny percent who feel that way.
my friend has said that and he is nkt anti vaxx whatsoever..
And this is a big problem because no vaccine is 100% effective. The best are 90%+, but some are considerably less. Regardless, herd immunity is a central component of any vaccine campaign to protect those who the vaccine doesn’t work on or who can’t be vaccinated for health or genetic reasons.
Quote:
In comment 14897290 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
this is why we can't have nice things.
I don't know about the sentiment, but I'm pretty sure it will end up reducing the anti-vaxxers...
I think it depends. I have read a lot of anecdotal "if I'm forced to take a vaccine, I'm not going to do it"
I don't think people like that level of control.
Not sure if that's anti-vax or anti-government control or just a tiny percent who feel that way.
Quote:
In comment 14897294 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 14897290 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
this is why we can't have nice things.
I don't know about the sentiment, but I'm pretty sure it will end up reducing the anti-vaxxers...
I think it depends. I have read a lot of anecdotal "if I'm forced to take a vaccine, I'm not going to do it"
I don't think people like that level of control.
Not sure if that's anti-vax or anti-government control or just a tiny percent who feel that way.
I meant literally reducing the numbers
Oh, yeah, that's likely going to happen.
haha
working vaccines are one of humanity's greatest achievements.
thing is, they have to be safe since they go into healthy people, healthy kids.
I hear you though, a safe vaccine ends this thing forever. I hope it is possible.
Vaccines are a big reason why so few of is in this country had to fear communicable disease for generations.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/jared-kushner-fema-coronavirus.html - ( New Window )
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No comments or opinions on impeachment 2.0 due to this buffoonery response?!?!?!
Link - ( New Window )
Maybeeee you and your band can do a virtual fund raiser YouTube show n open for Bettie Serveert and raise money for funding to make it stick!!! Lol
Eh, there is no reason to think any of those allegations will stick. I've learned that lesson.
Safer Outdoors? - ( New Window )
I don’t know if these people are purposefully presenting incorrect opinions/theories as facts or if they’re honestly just that fucking stupid. What’s sad is they “believe” the CDC website now, but I can guarantee you that as the CDC updates their totals (which they’ve been doing), they’ll claim that the updated CDC numbers are BS and that they were forced by outside influences to fabricate them.
I appreciate people trying to look at the CDC website, but fuck man how can you have the facts laid out in front of you and still get it so wrong?
There is going to be more science around this. Somewhat covid asshat stuff, Jack from Twitter has donated $1B to a relief fund for Covid to find ways to spend money to help. He reached out to Andrew Yang to figure out the best way to spend it to help. Yang reached out to several people, including the husband of one of the lead data scientists who works on my team (she and her husband are brilliant people). Anyway, her husband has been involved with a number of groups that are looking into open space/field set ups, including the utilization of new materials for outdoor tents. The idea being that retailers, schooling, hospitals etc can set up outside, with the tents providing the ability for heat or A/C yet the fibers are such that the movement of air limits the effectiveness of the coronavirus based on studies they are seeing (such as this). The net/net of this is that more science is showing that outside this dissipates much better and the risks are enclosed spaces, poor ventilation, and travel (trains, subways, buses, etc).
Don't be shocked through the summer to see retailers take up space in parking lots of their stores and malls like a big ass garage sale.
Partisan politics. Zero value add
You still need the same racks of clothes etc.
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Apparently even the Imperial College Which told us with a lot of certainty 2-3 million people would die in this country ... doesn’t believe in social distancing. We live in unbelievable times.
This is incorrect and a complete distortion of their findings - their projection of 2.2m was without social distancing or any other mitigations (you can read for yourself on page 7 of their report published March 16 and linked in the article below which covers most of the high level). The title of the report was literally "Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand", and it proceeded to model several different intervention scenarios, including the "do nothing" outcome you are incorrectly asserting as "with a lot of certainty".
And here are 2 quotes from their now ex-team director Neil Ferguson, who resigned a few days ago because he got caught in an affair during the lockdown, this first one is from March 16th and the 2nd is the most recent quote I could find which was from a few days ago when he resigned. It does not seem like he "doesn't believe in social distancing".
Quote:
“The world is facing the most serious public health crisis in generations. Here we provide concrete estimates of the scale of the threat countries now face.
“We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels. It is likely such measures – most notably, large scale social distancing – will need to be in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine becomes available.”
Quote:
“I deeply regret any undermining of the clear messages around the continued need for social distancing to control this devastating epidemic. The government guidance is unequivocal, and is there to protect all of us.”
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand - ( New Window )
So....you got my point. The very person who told us to shut down and self quarantine or miilions would die .... didn’t self quarantine himself. (Also their model was based on a clueless, uneducated denominator of how many had been infected by the virus)
Obfuscating re denominators doesn't make this comment any less false -
In comment 14896833 MetsAreBack said:
Their report was very clear that their projection of 2m deaths was "In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour". They literally labeled that scenario on the the chart "do nothing" and described it as "unlikely" within the report.
I don't think it's ground breaking that being outside is better than being inside when isolation isn't an option.
And the media ran with them in headlines. Sure buried in the details of linked articles were the details that clearly indicated if no measures are taken, either individually or governmental, but no one reads past headlines anymore.
Obviously big picture with 70k dead and 30+M people losing their jobs or around there, golf courses are not a concern but IMO closing them made no sense.
Baker (MA Governor) has been very good so far handling this crisis, but he made a lot of decisions (and publicly gave his reason for them) based on the "region". But RI, CT, and other border states never closed golf courses and it's this kind of inconsistency that pisses people off and makes them less likely to follow other guidance.
I believe it also said that over a million would die in the US.
Every model has been wrong which is why it is irresponsible for Media outlets to run with them.
I believe it also said that over a million would die in the US.
Every model has been wrong which is why it is irresponsible for Media outlets to run with them.
hmmm models change because events and facts change . erring to the side of caution is not being irresponsible ... downplaying the virus threat , hiding facts and gaslighting people to get the economy started up again to win an election now THAT is irresponsible
that's the rumor for MA - no carts, no bathrooms, and no clubhouse.
CT has carts, but one person per cart.
I don't care either way. I don't golf often (I would, just never have time).
And in all the times I golf even if we were jammed in with a tee time, I don't think I came within 6 feet of the party ahead or behind us. Just slows things down when you have to wait for someone to make their approach or whatever.
I also read they may have no cups on the green (like CT) - I don't think CT has actual holes on the green to hit the ball into - they have raised cups to avoid people reaching in to grab their balls (sounds funny to read that).
Might be overly aggressive but it still keeps a business running and hopefully people won't be assholes.
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If you go back... up to the top part of this thread, at least one BBI poster had his own "model" that predicted millions dead and stated that the model took into account measures being put in place
I believe it also said that over a million would die in the US.
Every model has been wrong which is why it is irresponsible for Media outlets to run with them.
hmmm models change because events and facts change . erring to the side of caution is not being irresponsible ... downplaying the virus threat , hiding facts and gaslighting people to get the economy started up again to win an election now THAT is irresponsible
No one is suggesting models don't change. But if that model was built on assumptions that had no basis in reality it goes beyond an abundance of caution.
And as for the second part of your post, who is hiding facts or gaslighting people? I haven't seen any of that. If you mean the President, please explain.
From what I have read the President outlined guidelines for opening in 4 phases (all based on the research and guidance he got from Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci) and then he said he left it up to the states and each Governor and he would support their decision - even said he disagreed with Georgia.
From what I have read the President outlined guidelines for opening in 4 phases (all based on the research and guidance he got from Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci) and then he said he left it up to the states and each Governor and he would support their decision - even said he disagreed with Georgia.
hahahahahahah this is just too easy ... it would be funny if it wasn't sad that a good portion of our fellow citizens are completely brainwashed
Trump administration shelves CDC guide to reopening country: AP - ( New Window )
saw her yesterday after not seeing her the past couple of weeks - turns out she had covid19 and she was in her apartment the entire time fighting the disease
. Here is what she said to me .
1. Almost all nurses and doctors on her hospital floor that dealt with Covid19 got the virus . This is because of lack of PPE during initial part of pandemic .
2.. she is in her 40s and very healthy and thin and she said it is serious and nasty illness the first week she thought she was going to die - fever spiking- multiple crippling headaches -body aches like she never felt before -- feeling her chest was being stepped on.
3. Paitents who go on respirators have less than 10% survival rate .. basically if you have to go on respirator .. they expect you to not survive the virus .
4. she is back to work this week and the hospital now is much much better they have enough supplies and they are finally over the curve with this pandemic and things are calming down
5.Her hospital are now pivoting to preparing for the second wave which they anticipate will be LARGER than the first ..
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And as for the second part of your post, who is hiding facts or gaslighting people? I haven't seen any of that. If you mean the President, please explain.
From what I have read the President outlined guidelines for opening in 4 phases (all based on the research and guidance he got from Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci) and then he said he left it up to the states and each Governor and he would support their decision - even said he disagreed with Georgia.
hahahahahahah this is just too easy ... it would be funny if it wasn't sad that a good portion of our fellow citizens are completely brainwashed Trump administration shelves CDC guide to reopening country: AP - ( New Window )
It's true some people seem brainwashed, but it's not who you think.
Did you bother to ask why or did you eyes just light up as you viewed this as another example to "dunk" on Trump?
the report was never even cleared with CDC leadership. For one thing, it contradicts some advice from Dr Birx and Fauci published in the task force guidelines for reopening, and is not consistent across all geographies and how they should handle the re-opening.
But more importantly, most of the information from the report deemed relevant has already been posted on federal websites.
but you got him. He's got blood on his hands now. Good sleuthing.
Might be overly aggressive but it still keeps a business running and hopefully people won't be assholes.
We'll see, I think they're being re-opened and I didn't realize it but MA and NH are the only states in the country with statewide orders to close golf courses.
Donald Trump is the Ereck Flowers of Presidents
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Did you bother to ask why or did you eyes just light up as you viewed this as another example to "dunk" on Trump?
Donald Trump is the Ereck Flowers of Presidents
LOL. Maybe he should be moved to guard.
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And as for the second part of your post, who is hiding facts or gaslighting people? I haven't seen any of that. If you mean the President, please explain.
From what I have read the President outlined guidelines for opening in 4 phases (all based on the research and guidance he got from Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci) and then he said he left it up to the states and each Governor and he would support their decision - even said he disagreed with Georgia.
hahahahahahah this is just too easy ... it would be funny if it wasn't sad that a good portion of our fellow citizens are completely brainwashed Trump administration shelves CDC guide to reopening country: AP - ( New Window )
It's true some people seem brainwashed, but it's not who you think.
Did you bother to ask why or did you eyes just light up as you viewed this as another example to "dunk" on Trump?
the report was never even cleared with CDC leadership. For one thing, it contradicts some advice from Dr Birx and Fauci published in the task force guidelines for reopening, and is not consistent across all geographies and how they should handle the re-opening.
But more importantly, most of the information from the report deemed relevant has already been posted on federal websites.
but you got him. He's got blood on his hands now. Good sleuthing.
I haven't seen anything that says what you're saying about the report. Got a link?
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In comment 14897899 giantfan2000 said:
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Quote:
And as for the second part of your post, who is hiding facts or gaslighting people? I haven't seen any of that. If you mean the President, please explain.
From what I have read the President outlined guidelines for opening in 4 phases (all based on the research and guidance he got from Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci) and then he said he left it up to the states and each Governor and he would support their decision - even said he disagreed with Georgia.
hahahahahahah this is just too easy ... it would be funny if it wasn't sad that a good portion of our fellow citizens are completely brainwashed Trump administration shelves CDC guide to reopening country: AP - ( New Window )
It's true some people seem brainwashed, but it's not who you think.
Did you bother to ask why or did you eyes just light up as you viewed this as another example to "dunk" on Trump?
the report was never even cleared with CDC leadership. For one thing, it contradicts some advice from Dr Birx and Fauci published in the task force guidelines for reopening, and is not consistent across all geographies and how they should handle the re-opening.
But more importantly, most of the information from the report deemed relevant has already been posted on federal websites.
but you got him. He's got blood on his hands now. Good sleuthing.
I haven't seen anything that says what you're saying about the report. Got a link?
See below
The CDC is hearing daily from state and county health departments looking for scientifically valid information with which to make informed decisions.
Still, behind the scenes, CDC scientists like those who produced the guidance for "Opening Up America Again" are working to get information to local governments. The agency still employs hundreds of the world's most respected epidemiologists and doctors, who in times of crisis are looked to for their expertise, said former CDC director Tom Frieden. People have clicked on the CDC's coronavirus website more than 1.2 billion times.
States that directly reach out to the CDC can tap guidance that's been prepared but that the White House has not released....
link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
@ElizLanders
This @MSNBC
graphic is astounding
Link - ( New Window )
Vitamin C, wow.
See below
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....A person close to the White House's coronavirus task force said the CDC documents were never cleared by CDC leadership for public release. The person said White House officials have refrained from offering detailed guidance for how specific sectors should reopen because the coronavirus is affecting various parts of the country differently. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
The CDC is hearing daily from state and county health departments looking for scientifically valid information with which to make informed decisions.
Still, behind the scenes, CDC scientists like those who produced the guidance for "Opening Up America Again" are working to get information to local governments. The agency still employs hundreds of the world's most respected epidemiologists and doctors, who in times of crisis are looked to for their expertise, said former CDC director Tom Frieden. People have clicked on the CDC's coronavirus website more than 1.2 billion times.
States that directly reach out to the CDC can tap guidance that's been prepared but that the White House has not released....
link - ( New Window )
Ok, not to quibble too much, but that says it wasn't cleared but not that it was contradictory to Brix and Fauci or WH guidelines.
Quote:
will also keep foursomes from congregating in close quarters as well. Sooner or later when you are just waiting there you may default back to non-social distancing parameters.
Might be overly aggressive but it still keeps a business running and hopefully people won't be assholes.
We'll see, I think they're being re-opened and I didn't realize it but MA and NH are the only states in the country with statewide orders to close golf courses.
new jersey had statewide orders to close golf courses
Quote:
In comment 14897848 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
will also keep foursomes from congregating in close quarters as well. Sooner or later when you are just waiting there you may default back to non-social distancing parameters.
Might be overly aggressive but it still keeps a business running and hopefully people won't be assholes.
We'll see, I think they're being re-opened and I didn't realize it but MA and NH are the only states in the country with statewide orders to close golf courses.
new jersey had statewide orders to close golf courses
unless yiu meant still
that's what I meant by contradictory. It also doesn't align with the phases of reopening.
Regardless of your interpretation I don't think this qualifies as "hiding information" the way the poster claimed.
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In comment 14897848 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
will also keep foursomes from congregating in close quarters as well. Sooner or later when you are just waiting there you may default back to non-social distancing parameters.
Might be overly aggressive but it still keeps a business running and hopefully people won't be assholes.
We'll see, I think they're being re-opened and I didn't realize it but MA and NH are the only states in the country with statewide orders to close golf courses.
new jersey had statewide orders to close golf courses
Yes, meant currently.
Quote:
If you go back... up to the top part of this thread, at least one BBI poster had his own "model" that predicted millions dead and stated that the model took into account measures being put in place
I believe it also said that over a million would die in the US.
Every model has been wrong which is why it is irresponsible for Media outlets to run with them.
hmmm models change because events and facts change . erring to the side of caution is not being irresponsible ... downplaying the virus threat , hiding facts and gaslighting people to get the economy started up again to win an election now THAT is irresponsible
If you think trying to get an economy going again to save 40-50% of our workforce from prolonged unemployment (many of these jobs will never come back), families, businesses and savings ruined, kids' social and learning development irrevocably stunted, massive massive increases in government debt that will cripple this country for generations... is just solely about trying to re-win an election... then you are just completely, utterly fucking lost.
These accusations that either party is all in on economy no matter the expense of deaths versus those all in on saving every life no matter the economic cost have got to stop. Every poll out there shows 95%+ of Americans favor option C which is getting the economy partially reopened while continuing mitigation techniques to protect as many people as possible, particularly those in the higher risk communities. Both parties want this - the polls incent them to - but disagree on the calibration or the methods to get there.
Speaking of, NY just announced a completely absurd "reopen" plan that basically ensures no reopening until we have a vaccine. Its just completely devastating and chilling in its incompetence. They chose as their advisors the WHO and the Imperial College... you cant make that up folks.
Alabama: 416,730 (19.08%)
Alaska: 71,481 (21.97%)
Arizona: 474,409 (13.74%)
Arkansas: 177,009 (13.42%)
California: 3,493,049 (18.62%)
Colorado: 337,757 (10.87%)
Connecticut: 261,645 (14.08%)
Delaware: 79,265 (16.87%)
DC: 71,980 (18.32%)
FL: 1,591,390 (15.66%)
GA: 1,367,807 (27.38%)
HI: 194,850 (29.88%)
ID: 117,111 (13.50%)
IL: 818,980 (13.25%)
IN: 575,293 (17.48%)
IA: 261,609 (15.36%)
KS: 212,560 (14.66%)
KY: 590,805 (29.60%)
LA: 508,606 (25.43%)
ME: 108,822 (16.17%)
MD: 385,337 (12.14%)
MA: 725,301 (19.45%)
MI: 1,268,564 (26.60%)
MN: 552,486 (18.26%)
MS: 194,884 (16.13%)
MO: 447,465 (14.90%)
MT: 88,636 (17.09%)
NE: 104,056 (10.28%)
NV: 383,680 (25.52%)
NH: 156,723 (20.63%)
NJ: 889,691 (20.62%)
NM: 117,176 (12.80%)
NY: 1,610,151 (17.51%)
NC: 747,748 (15.16%)
ND: 57,219 (14.47%)
OH: 1,057,375 (18.92%)
OK: 281,107 (15.74%)
OR: 276,434 (13.57%)
PA: 1,618,329 (25.90%)
RI: 145,828 (27.02%)
SC: 413,202 (17.71%)
SD: 33,733 (7.47%)
TN: 426,673 (13.12%)
TX: 1,555,292 (11.35%)
UT: 136,714 (8.60%)
VT: 56,078 (16.89%)
VA: 567,586 (13.06%)
WA: 856,097 (22.46%)
WV: 123,713 (16.13%)
WI: 442,454 (14.75%)
WY: 25,885 (9.14%)
Correlations between these numbers and policy initiatives:
Bans on Mass Gatherings: -0.23
Shelter-in-Place: -0.11
Closure of Non-Essential Businesses: -0.33
Closure of Bars and Other High Traffic Businesses: -0.29
These accusations that either party is all in on economy no matter the expense of deaths versus those all in on saving every life no matter the economic cost have got to stop. Every poll out there shows 95%+ of Americans favor option C which is getting the economy partially reopened while continuing mitigation techniques to protect as many people as possible, particularly those in the higher risk communities. Both parties want this - the polls incent them to - but disagree on the calibration or the methods to get there.
Speaking of, NY just announced a completely absurd "reopen" plan that basically ensures no reopening until we have a vaccine. Its just completely devastating and chilling in its incompetence. They chose as their advisors the WHO and the Imperial College... you cant make that up folks.
While I agree with you that it's not even close to being so simple as a party sacrificing the health and lives of citizens to win reelection, there is a lot of incompetence and negligence involved in our federal government's response to this pandemic from the very beginning (as far back as when the Presidentical Daily Briefs were highlighting the threat of possible pandemic in January). The gaslighting and minimizing the threat by one side did happen and continues to happen even today, and while the other side also hasn't been as noble as their supporters make them out to be, this isn't just both sides disagreeing on the method and degrees of action. It's far more divided than that.
But before I get banned, I'll stop here.
Correlation between 2017 per capita state and local GDP and percent of labor force lost? 0.28.
The idea everything can stay closed untill there is a vaccine is absurd. This is the new reality. There will be risk.There needs to be management of this risk and hopefully improved understanding of the disease, and treatments. Not to remove the risk, but to mitigate it as much as possible.
Those NYS and national unemployment numbers are staggering. What happens now? That is after two months. There are serious considerations of lockdowns for many months more? This is easy to say if you are super wealthy, or still getting paid.
In addition to jobless claims, states sre now lining up for money from Washington to meet budget shortfalls. Big ones.
I have asked this before, but can Washington just print money forever? If they can, why not just go to some form of Universal Basics Income and be done with it?
I have no economics degree, but can they just print dollars forever?
If so, please do.
I'm not refuting your post without details, but there are some 100% irrefutable issues with the response (for discussion at another time IMO), but also a lot of spin, opinion, revisionist history, and BS.
If you cannot respond without getting yourself banned then don't bother.
If so, please do.
I'm not refuting your post without details, but there are some 100% irrefutable issues with the response (for discussion at another time IMO), but also a lot of spin, opinion, revisionist history, and BS.
If you cannot respond without getting yourself banned then don't bother.
Well...all of the presidential press briefings downplaying the threat of the virus (it's going to disappear, etc. comes to mind), the delay in any kind of concerted response at the federal level, putting together a task force of inexperience people, ignoring of lessons being learned in other countries, the most watched media having its most popular talents downplaying the threat and even going far as saying the word "conspiracy" when talking about the pandemic...I can go on and on and on.
Well, I'm sure I'll get banned, but you asked.
Quote:
of the incompetence and negligence without being obnoxiously political?
If so, please do.
I'm not refuting your post without details, but there are some 100% irrefutable issues with the response (for discussion at another time IMO), but also a lot of spin, opinion, revisionist history, and BS.
If you cannot respond without getting yourself banned then don't bother.
Well...all of the presidential press briefings downplaying the threat of the virus (it's going to disappear, etc. comes to mind), the delay in any kind of concerted response at the federal level, putting together a task force of inexperience people, ignoring of lessons being learned in other countries, the most watched media having its most popular talents downplaying the threat and even going far as saying the word "conspiracy" when talking about the pandemic...I can go on and on and on.
Well, I'm sure I'll get banned, but you asked.
LOL, walked right into my trap to get you banned.
Seriously, I see nothing ban worthy in your post. Also not much substance and I know you were probably trying to keep it intentionally that way to avoid banning.
There are many documented sources detailing the timeline of events. I know he's probably not a favorite source on here, but Dan Crenshaw's twitter feed, has a great timeline intended to dispel some myths and half truths.
I'll link it if anyone's interested.
AHAHAHAHAHAHH
17.3%.
Quote:
There are many documented sources detailing the timeline of events. I know he's probably not a favorite source on here, but Dan Crenshaw's twitter feed, has a great timeline intended to dispel some myths and half truths.
AHAHAHAHAHAHH
Something is funny about that? Have you read the timeline or is that just the programmed hyena laugh that means "I've been told not to trust unapproved sources"
Too many citizens feel like they are being forced into sacrifices they don't understand, they don't buy, or they are willing to risk to protect their livelihoods.
The ambiguity in communication from the feds hasn't helped this at all. The broad stay at home message and the encouragement to reject local ordinances is coming from the executive branch. The ambiguity on what's safe and what's not safe is coming from the words and actions of the executive branch. That's not even to mention the ridiculous and absurd commentary peppered in about disinfectants and sunshine.
The timelines, the micro decisions, the sound bites, and the headlines leave enough blame and cover for anyone if you tilt the lense the right way.
This is the inflection point -- for argument's sake give everyone a pass for how we got here. Closing borders, closing economies, passing stimulus, and the blame and credit game is the easy stuff.
Opening things in a way where this wasn't for nothing is the hard part. You get this wrong, and we wind up here again in a few months, that's the fucked part. This is where leaders are made.
As the rest of the world laughs at our leaders the Chinese, a truly loathsome and oppressive and evil government steps easily into the vacuum.
Anne Applebaum on world power vacuum and China. - ( New Window )
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Quote:
There are many documented sources detailing the timeline of events. I know he's probably not a favorite source on here, but Dan Crenshaw's twitter feed, has a great timeline intended to dispel some myths and half truths.
AHAHAHAHAHAHH
Something is funny about that? Have you read the timeline or is that just the programmed hyena laugh that means "I've been told not to trust unapproved sources"
NPC meme in action
> Dan Crenshaw
> TV says bad
So just meet them at shoprite or home depit and hangout there
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In comment 14898091 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
of the incompetence and negligence without being obnoxiously political?
If so, please do.
I'm not refuting your post without details, but there are some 100% irrefutable issues with the response (for discussion at another time IMO), but also a lot of spin, opinion, revisionist history, and BS.
If you cannot respond without getting yourself banned then don't bother.
Well...all of the presidential press briefings downplaying the threat of the virus (it's going to disappear, etc. comes to mind), the delay in any kind of concerted response at the federal level, putting together a task force of inexperience people, ignoring of lessons being learned in other countries, the most watched media having its most popular talents downplaying the threat and even going far as saying the word "conspiracy" when talking about the pandemic...I can go on and on and on.
Well, I'm sure I'll get banned, but you asked.
LOL, walked right into my trap to get you banned.
Seriously, I see nothing ban worthy in your post. Also not much substance and I know you were probably trying to keep it intentionally that way to avoid banning.
There are many documented sources detailing the timeline of events. I know he's probably not a favorite source on here, but Dan Crenshaw's twitter feed, has a great timeline intended to dispel some myths and half truths.
I'll link it if anyone's interested.
Is it this feed? First tweet is: "Not enough people are talking about this. American energy independence is at risk if we keep allowing the far-left to drive policy that favors Russia."
Dan Crenshaw @Twitter - ( New Window )
As the rest of the world laughs at our leaders the Chinese, a truly loathsome and oppressive and evil government steps easily into the vacuum. Anne Applebaum on world power vacuum and China. - ( New Window )
The people that got us into this mess with no plan. and continue to blunder every step of the way are the ones we are suppose to trust to get us out of this mess with no discernible plan
color me skeptical ...
So just meet them at shoprite or home depit and hangout there
Dumb.
If my Mom were still with us, we'd be golfing together on Sunday. That is, if there isn't 6 inches of snow on the ground.
Quote:
In comment 14898111 RC in MD said:
Quote:
In comment 14898091 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
of the incompetence and negligence without being obnoxiously political?
If so, please do.
I'm not refuting your post without details, but there are some 100% irrefutable issues with the response (for discussion at another time IMO), but also a lot of spin, opinion, revisionist history, and BS.
If you cannot respond without getting yourself banned then don't bother.
Well...all of the presidential press briefings downplaying the threat of the virus (it's going to disappear, etc. comes to mind), the delay in any kind of concerted response at the federal level, putting together a task force of inexperience people, ignoring of lessons being learned in other countries, the most watched media having its most popular talents downplaying the threat and even going far as saying the word "conspiracy" when talking about the pandemic...I can go on and on and on.
Well, I'm sure I'll get banned, but you asked.
LOL, walked right into my trap to get you banned.
Seriously, I see nothing ban worthy in your post. Also not much substance and I know you were probably trying to keep it intentionally that way to avoid banning.
There are many documented sources detailing the timeline of events. I know he's probably not a favorite source on here, but Dan Crenshaw's twitter feed, has a great timeline intended to dispel some myths and half truths.
I'll link it if anyone's interested.
Is it this feed? First tweet is: "Not enough people are talking about this. American energy independence is at risk if we keep allowing the far-left to drive policy that favors Russia."
Dan Crenshaw @Twitter - ( New Window )
Yes, he has two relevant threads IMO. Both are good listens IMO. WaPo had a writer "fact check" them and came up with some minor corrections IMO, but those fact checks involve some twisting and contorting to say they weren't entirely true. Mostly though, I'm not suggesting anyone accept what Dan Crenshaw says 100%, but there is more truth in his response than the platitudes you get from other sources.
First one I'll link is his interview with Bill Maher and second is a youtube he created. Both are broken into 3 or 4 tweets to share them in consumable parts on twitter. If you want to dismiss the source because of who he is and you're sure that everything that comes out of his mouth is a lie than feel free.
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
Dont go see your mom on mothers day and sit in their driveway, it is a bad idea...
So just meet them at shoprite or home depit and hangout there
Dumb.
If my Mom were still with us, we'd be golfing together on Sunday. That is, if there isn't 6 inches of snow on the ground.
I said this to my wife the other day, if my grandfather was alive he would say screq this i am going out, especially easter he wouldve been pissed, easter is huge in our family..
My grandmother is only staying home because the church was closed, she would go wvery morning to bake
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In comment 14898121 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 14898111 RC in MD said:
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In comment 14898091 pjcas18 said:
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of the incompetence and negligence without being obnoxiously political?
If so, please do.
I'm not refuting your post without details, but there are some 100% irrefutable issues with the response (for discussion at another time IMO), but also a lot of spin, opinion, revisionist history, and BS.
If you cannot respond without getting yourself banned then don't bother.
Well...all of the presidential press briefings downplaying the threat of the virus (it's going to disappear, etc. comes to mind), the delay in any kind of concerted response at the federal level, putting together a task force of inexperience people, ignoring of lessons being learned in other countries, the most watched media having its most popular talents downplaying the threat and even going far as saying the word "conspiracy" when talking about the pandemic...I can go on and on and on.
Well, I'm sure I'll get banned, but you asked.
LOL, walked right into my trap to get you banned.
Seriously, I see nothing ban worthy in your post. Also not much substance and I know you were probably trying to keep it intentionally that way to avoid banning.
There are many documented sources detailing the timeline of events. I know he's probably not a favorite source on here, but Dan Crenshaw's twitter feed, has a great timeline intended to dispel some myths and half truths.
I'll link it if anyone's interested.
Is it this feed? First tweet is: "Not enough people are talking about this. American energy independence is at risk if we keep allowing the far-left to drive policy that favors Russia."
Dan Crenshaw @Twitter - ( New Window )
Yes, he has two relevant threads IMO. Both are good listens IMO. WaPo had a writer "fact check" them and came up with some minor corrections IMO, but those fact checks involve some twisting and contorting to say they weren't entirely true. Mostly though, I'm not suggesting anyone accept what Dan Crenshaw says 100%, but there is more truth in his response than the platitudes you get from other sources.
First one I'll link is his interview with Bill Maher and second is a youtube he created. Both are broken into 3 or 4 tweets to share them in consumable parts on twitter. If you want to dismiss the source because of who he is and you're sure that everything that comes out of his mouth is a lie than feel free.
link - ( New Window )
Second link - youtube video - twitter thread
link - ( New Window )
hey since you keep on harping on Dan Crenshaw am I allowed to post the many many many many many times Dan Crenshaw has been 100% WRONG and said absolutely stupid trumpian crap since the coronavirus crisis has begun ? asking for a friend
If we can't agree that those who had/have access to the best information on the planet could have lead more productive conversations in February than downplaying this with comparisons to the flu (which continued into March and continue now in sentiment at the "protests") then I'm not sure there's any way to overcome the interpretive divide. We didn't even need to count on anyone in the international community by mid-Feb when the Kirkland outbreak was already underway. A tweet compared Corona to the flu on March 9th - within 24 hours of the NBA cancelling games and essentially triggering the national lockdown and almost 2 weeks after the Gov of Washington had declared a state of emergency.
If we can't agree that those who had/have access to the best information on the planet could have lead more productive conversations in February than downplaying this with comparisons to the flu (which continued into March and continue now in sentiment at the "protests") then I'm not sure there's any way to overcome the interpretive divide. We didn't even need to count on anyone in the international community by mid-Feb when the Kirkland outbreak was already underway. A tweet compared Corona to the flu on March 9th - within 24 hours of the NBA cancelling games and essentially triggering the national lockdown and almost 2 weeks after the Gov of Washington had declared a state of emergency.
It should be easy to debunk then. Have at it.
If we can't agree that those who had/have access to the best information on the planet could have lead more productive conversations in February than downplaying this with comparisons to the flu (which continued into March and continue now in sentiment at the "protests") then I'm not sure there's any way to overcome the interpretive divide. We didn't even need to count on anyone in the international community by mid-Feb when the Kirkland outbreak was already underway. A tweet compared Corona to the flu on March 9th - within 24 hours of the NBA cancelling games and essentially triggering the national lockdown and almost 2 weeks after the Gov of Washington had declared a state of emergency.
Eh...we can respect Crenshaw's service and sacrifice, but that should not color our perspective of him beyond what he has done as a politician. If we do, many will be disappointed in his hypocrisy and his moral weakness, but that's just my opinion.
If we can't agree that those who had/have access to the best information on the planet could have lead more productive conversations in February than downplaying this with comparisons to the flu (which continued into March and continue now in sentiment at the "protests") then I'm not sure there's any way to overcome the interpretive divide. We didn't even need to count on anyone in the international community by mid-Feb when the Kirkland outbreak was already underway. A tweet compared Corona to the flu on March 9th - within 24 hours of the NBA cancelling games and essentially triggering the national lockdown and almost 2 weeks after the Gov of Washington had declared a state of emergency.
It's simply because people are mathematically, numerically, and statistically ignorant.
They see the end results of a model and scream murder when it doesn't match up with reality, without realizing what a forecast is, what assumptions are used, etc.
He twisted a lot of stuff. - ( New Window )
Quote:
but his representations about who did what and when are about as intellectually honest as saying "the Imperial College told us with a lot of certainty 2-3 million people would die in this country".
If we can't agree that those who had/have access to the best information on the planet could have lead more productive conversations in February than downplaying this with comparisons to the flu (which continued into March and continue now in sentiment at the "protests") then I'm not sure there's any way to overcome the interpretive divide. We didn't even need to count on anyone in the international community by mid-Feb when the Kirkland outbreak was already underway. A tweet compared Corona to the flu on March 9th - within 24 hours of the NBA cancelling games and essentially triggering the national lockdown and almost 2 weeks after the Gov of Washington had declared a state of emergency.
Eh...we can respect Crenshaw's service and sacrifice, but that should not color our perspective of him beyond what he has done as a politician. If we do, many will be disappointed in his hypocrisy and his moral weakness, but that's just my opinion.
That's fair - my intent wasn't to diminish the disagreement with what he's said on this subject, but I suppose to contextualize that he hasn't always been as intellectually dishonest as a politician, and has obviously done more that's commendable prior to being a politician than many other politicians.
Here is an analysis of the "fact check" from Guy Benson. If you read without dismissing the source because he's conservative you may find he's fair. Agreeing with some things, but offering evidence of how the WaPo writer really had to try hard to claim some things were wrong - or in some cases simply made biased judgments.
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
but his representations about who did what and when are about as intellectually honest as saying "the Imperial College told us with a lot of certainty 2-3 million people would die in this country".
If we can't agree that those who had/have access to the best information on the planet could have lead more productive conversations in February than downplaying this with comparisons to the flu (which continued into March and continue now in sentiment at the "protests") then I'm not sure there's any way to overcome the interpretive divide. We didn't even need to count on anyone in the international community by mid-Feb when the Kirkland outbreak was already underway. A tweet compared Corona to the flu on March 9th - within 24 hours of the NBA cancelling games and essentially triggering the national lockdown and almost 2 weeks after the Gov of Washington had declared a state of emergency.
It should be easy to debunk then. Have at it.
It has been for basically any of the major news orgs that have done so - including his hometown paper.
You can say what you want as slyly as you wish...but others get challenged for the exact same "truth and sources as I wish to assert" kind of post
Lonely Sentinel at his post: The lights around you slowly reveal more and more
If we can't agree that those who had/have access to the best information on the planet could have lead more productive conversations in February than downplaying this with comparisons to the flu (which continued into March and continue now in sentiment at the "protests") then I'm not sure there's any way to overcome the interpretive divide. We didn't even need to count on anyone in the international community by mid-Feb when the Kirkland outbreak was already underway. A tweet compared Corona to the flu on March 9th - within 24 hours of the NBA cancelling games and essentially triggering the national lockdown and almost 2 weeks after the Gov of Washington had declared a state of emergency.
The first confirmed US fatality was on February 29th.
When the US "lock down" was implemented there were just 2700 cases and 58 fatalities.
No one was going to agree to shelter in place or other guidance without more evidence of spread, even if those precautions would have helped limit the spread (IMO).
Also, there is apparently now a lot of evidence that a huge percentage of the US cases were initiated from NY and because NY was so late to initiate their own lockdown and restrictive guidelines they contributed more to the US outbreak than anything else.
NY Times has a piece on it today.
Quote:
but his representations about who did what and when are about as intellectually honest as saying "the Imperial College told us with a lot of certainty 2-3 million people would die in this country".
If we can't agree that those who had/have access to the best information on the planet could have lead more productive conversations in February than downplaying this with comparisons to the flu (which continued into March and continue now in sentiment at the "protests") then I'm not sure there's any way to overcome the interpretive divide. We didn't even need to count on anyone in the international community by mid-Feb when the Kirkland outbreak was already underway. A tweet compared Corona to the flu on March 9th - within 24 hours of the NBA cancelling games and essentially triggering the national lockdown and almost 2 weeks after the Gov of Washington had declared a state of emergency.
Eh...we can respect Crenshaw's service and sacrifice, but that should not color our perspective of him beyond what he has done as a politician. If we do, many will be disappointed in his hypocrisy and his moral weakness, but that's just my opinion.
I hesitate to question someone else's morals because I'm not judgmental but you can if you'd like. You did say it's your opinion.
but my point was not to agree with him morally but review what he's said. If you find it to not be factual - well that's one thing, but facts are facts.
The fact that he doesn’t is the tell that he isn’t actually trying to get to the truth.
Either way, 2000 dead in one day is awful and this has been the case for weeks now. There doesn't seem to be a clear trend that this is getting better.
Do we really want to accept 1500-2000 deaths per day? What's the plan to decrease this?
Up to 70,000 dead total. Most believe that number understates the total dead as if we compare mortality in 2020 to prior recent years, the 70K confirmed COVID 19 fatality number doesn't make up the difference.
@Breaking911
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Either way, 2000 dead in one day is awful and this has been the case for weeks now. There doesn't seem to be a clear trend that this is getting better.
Do we really want to accept 1500-2000 deaths per day? What's the plan to decrease this?
Up to 70,000 dead total. Most believe that number understates the total dead as if we compare mortality in 2020 to prior recent years, the 70K confirmed COVID 19 fatality number doesn't make up the difference.
The biggest prpblem is the nursing homes, think about that for a second 700 people from a new york nursing homes male up a 1/4 of the deaths in one day..
They spread through those homes before we knew it and most if not all are probably infected..
the nursing home in andover new jersey had bodies in the basement, they found 70 bodies
Can we have a second thread where only statistics and science are allowed ?
I find this so much more interesting than the political BS these days.
Studies of coronavirus evolution stir up a controversy for scientists on social media - ( New Window )
They should have been the obvious first place to put protections and lockdowns in place.
the sweet spot is between 8-12 weeks before social distancing will do more harm than good in this regard.
an agonizingly slow, conservative, "phased opening" that continues to wreck economies and hurt people through june and july as is the case in a number of mid-atlantic states is wrong-headed.
The limited effectiveness of social distancing - ( New Window )
Lets just make it that way...reverse Gresham.
Good posts drive out junk
I find this so much more interesting than the political BS these days. Studies of coronavirus evolution stir up a controversy for scientists on social media - ( New Window )
Thanks for this Mike. Nice find
It is important to remember we are all in this together
It is important to remember we are all in this together
Nicely stated 16.
Too many veterans have used and benefited from jingoistic ferver to get elected and to hold office, often using their service as bonafides. But many have displayed themselves to be no better than those they look down on.
This opinion piece (obviously biased based on the site, I admit) points out what many of us veterans have seen of his conduct in the past several years. So excuse me if I readily pass judgement on him.
Link - ( New Window )
Too many veterans have used and benefited from jingoistic ferver to get elected and to hold office, often using their service as bonafides. But many have displayed themselves to be no better than those they look down on.
This opinion piece (obviously biased based on the site, I admit) points out what many of us veterans have seen of his conduct in the past several years. So excuse me if I readily pass judgement on him. Link - ( New Window )
This post just makes it worse IMO. Way worse.
But thank you for your service (I sincerely mean that) and of course you have a right to your opinion.
As nygiants16 said, beyond our philosophical differences I do hope you and your family stay safe.
Lets just make it that way...reverse Gresham.
Good posts drive out junk
Thanks Bill ! I'm doing well all things considering. I hope you are too.
Good idea. My only issue is sorting through and missing so much on such a massive thread. Plus, it's hard to get a read on the potential strong opinions. ;-)
I've been enjoying your posts and those of many others as they relate to the scientific questions and challenges.
Aside from the geopolitical impact of China's role, and the coming responses by the global community, I'm really interested in the antibody test results (and the accuracy of the tests), as well as the data on the unreported deaths as they relate to the excess deaths over the normal amount for any given time period. Especially places like Italy where the numbers could be as high as 3x the reported deaths, based on excessive morbidity, as has been reported, objectively and fairly IMO.
And of course, the DNA/genetic testing that is being done to track the spread, mutations, variation in characteristics of severity, etc, is fascinating.
So many open questions. Seems to me we are still in discovery mode and it's way too soon to be making any strong decisions in terms of joining the "open" vs. "keep closed" crowds ! So I don't blame anyone for wanting to play it safe and I find it hard to blame anyone struggling economically (especially in low-infection areas) for telling the authorities to go screw themselves. It's a shame it has become so two-sided, but I guess it was inevitable given how everything else is these days.
Be well !
Eric- I agree completely. The platform they have created and the way they are cracking this thing at the genetic level is awe-inspiring.
I've also been watching a bunch of docs on genetics (Ken Burns Gene on and the Cancer one, and a couple of others) and the human genome and I am in awe of how far science has come in such a short time.
It is important to remember we are all in this together
I'm with you on this, if you were addressing my comments. I just prefer to not have to scan through the bickering to find the gems. ;-)
Now that in some areas doctors are finally starting to treat all the other "non emergenxy" lists of people they are finding viral infection rates of other organs but no documentation ( merely suspicion) of a covid infection in the patients recent past.
So I just don't know if we know enough about a very slippery virus to generate a good model of the disease radius of the virus beyond respiratory affects.
Just some examples of how early we all are on this journey.
Now that in some areas doctors are finally starting to treat all the other "non emergenxy" lists of people they are finding viral infection rates of other organs but no documentation ( merely suspicion) of a covid infection in the patients recent past.
So I just don't know if we know enough about a very slippery virus to generate a good model of the disease radius of the virus beyond respiratory affects.
Just some examples of how early we all are on this journey.
Interesting. I have heard a bit about impact to certain organs and potential long-term damage. I completely agree.
This is a really strange disease. Which reminds me of another point I wanted to make about immunity. Until we know about immunity, we really don't know much about what this all means for the long term either. Many seem to think that because of antibodies that somehow means complete immunity for all future iterations. I don't think we even know if it makes anyone immune for this iteration/strains (short-term). Especially given the history of all the flus and the common cold. This could be really bad for a really long time.
NIH Director Collins acknowledged shortfalls in existing tests, noting that one of the rapid coronavirus tests, the Abbott ID Now machine, has about a 15% "false negative rate," meaning roughly 15% of patients are told they are negative for the disease when they are in fact positive. There are just 18,000 of those rapid machines performing the 15-minute tests right now, Collins said.
"If you're in a circumstance where you really, really don't want to miss a diagnosis of somebody who's already carrying the virus, you'd like to have something that has a higher sensitivity than that," Collins said. "And I know they're working on how to make that happen."
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there have been a lot of really smart people introduced to all of us in the last several months and he is definitely at the top of the list. One of the things I've found most fascinating (and in some ways alarming) is how well he points out where things are still unknown and just how many of those things there still are.
Eric- I agree completely. The platform they have created and the way they are cracking this thing at the genetic level is awe-inspiring.
I've also been watching a bunch of docs on genetics (Ken Burns Gene on and the Cancer one, and a couple of others) and the human genome and I am in awe of how far science has come in such a short time.
The computing power we can throw behind this is amazing. Something that can take weeks running on the resources in a Datacenter we own can be done in hours using aws.
But thank you for your service (I sincerely mean that) and of course you have a right to your opinion.
As nygiants16 said, beyond our philosophical differences I do hope you and your family stay safe.
I hold nothing against you, pj...other than you sucking at fantasy football...;) Seriously though, I am fully aware of my own biases and my own flaws, and I've never hid them. While I may not agree with your political/philosophical/etc. views (general you, not you specifically), I will respect your right to have it as long as you're sincere about it. What I will never be understanding of are lack of character and morals. You don't have to be perfect, as we're all flawed. However, don't tout yourself as a man of integrity and moral strength when you champion other men, who lack both. That is worse than not having character and morals in the first place since you are actively dismissing the importance of them by your actions. And that was intended for a general you, pj...not you specifically.
Thank you for the kind word. I never know what to say when people thank me for my service. The only response that seems truly appropriate is to say thank you in return for their support.
And I too hope that you and your family are staying safe and healthy.
17.3%.
I see this morning Goldman says it could reach 29% and your number would just squeak over the top number achieved after the '07-'09 recession. I'd prefer yours, giving room to get a little worse.
a)didn’t read the article I linked
b)have no idea who is Anne Applebaum
c)assume she is some partisan hack
d)assume she is some lefty snowflake
e)all of the above
But in fact, she’s been considered a conservative for most of her highly esteemed and highly accomplished career. She’s written and or been an editor for some of the most highly regarded publications such as The Economist, Foreign Affairs, WSJ and on and on. Among academics and professional journalist and think tank thinkers (on all sides of the political spectrum) she’s as highly regarded as anyone on the planet. Suffice to say that if AA is penning a piece saying the world is laughing at US foreign policy leadership (and crying for our citizens) while China (who she routinely and correctly labels as an evil totalitarian regime) is stepping into the power void left by our absent government, well, you can safely assume there’s some fire around all that smoke.
Or, yeah, fuck it, it’s the internet so just jump to a conclusion and throw some dirt.
RC.......best to stay away from any political thoughts regarding public figures including our CIC. Especially on a public forum. When you hang up the uniform for good then by all means have at.
I'm not talking about drastically changing our lives (although I'm certain that there will be those as well), but in subtle ways, will our lives or the way we go about our days change?
Wearing masks and increased emphasis on handwashing are little things, but with so much emphasis on them, will those become more of the norm (people in many Asian countries wear masks in cities).
Will more companies move to telework and remote accesses rather than keep large open offices?
I'm not talking about drastically changing our lives (although I'm certain that there will be those as well), but in subtle ways, will our lives or the way we go about our days change?
Wearing masks and increased emphasis on handwashing are little things, but with so much emphasis on them, will those become more of the norm (people in many Asian countries wear masks in cities).
Will more companies move to telework and remote accesses rather than keep large open offices?
Just my opinion but I think this will change the world completely. The disease will change many many habits and ceremonies and social interactions. But the global economic hardship coming, and I see no way it’s not coming, will change the world for a very long time.
a)didn’t read the article I linked
b)have no idea who is Anne Applebaum
c)assume she is some partisan hack
d)assume she is some lefty snowflake
e)all of the above
But in fact, she’s been considered a conservative for most of her highly esteemed and highly accomplished career. She’s written and or been an editor for some of the most highly regarded publications such as The Economist, Foreign Affairs, WSJ and on and on. Among academics and professional journalist and think tank thinkers (on all sides of the political spectrum) she’s as highly regarded as anyone on the planet. Suffice to say that if AA is penning a piece saying the world is laughing at US foreign policy leadership (and crying for our citizens) while China (who she routinely and correctly labels as an evil totalitarian regime) is stepping into the power void left by our absent government, well, you can safely assume there’s some fire around all that smoke.
Or, yeah, fuck it, it’s the internet so just jump to a conclusion and throw some dirt.
Her opposition to the current administration's foreign policy is well known.
And it most certainly doesn't make her wrong in her observations.
Quote:
Got a couple of responses which lead me to believe were posted by people who
a)didn’t read the article I linked
b)have no idea who is Anne Applebaum
c)assume she is some partisan hack
d)assume she is some lefty snowflake
e)all of the above
But in fact, she’s been considered a conservative for most of her highly esteemed and highly accomplished career. She’s written and or been an editor for some of the most highly regarded publications such as The Economist, Foreign Affairs, WSJ and on and on. Among academics and professional journalist and think tank thinkers (on all sides of the political spectrum) she’s as highly regarded as anyone on the planet. Suffice to say that if AA is penning a piece saying the world is laughing at US foreign policy leadership (and crying for our citizens) while China (who she routinely and correctly labels as an evil totalitarian regime) is stepping into the power void left by our absent government, well, you can safely assume there’s some fire around all that smoke.
Or, yeah, fuck it, it’s the internet so just jump to a conclusion and throw some dirt.
Please. Applebaum endorsed Hilary and has her POV concerning NATO and the Western Alliance which is at odds with Trump's. The article was written for the Atlantic which let's be kind, would prefer someone other than Trump be President. So let's not pretend she doesn't have a POV and that the people here who want to take her statements with a grain of salt have no point whatsoever.
A point of view? Sure, I think we all have a point of view. You won’t read anyone who endorsed HRC? You only read people without a point of view?
See, this is the real price we’re paying, the idea that there is no objective journalism or that there is no right or wrong; that because some twit on Twitter is a twit, well then everyone is a twit and nothing is right and nothing is wrong and there are no facts.
Quote:
being delivered tomorrow.
17.3%.
I see this morning Goldman says it could reach 29% and your number would just squeak over the top number achieved after the '07-'09 recession. I'd prefer yours, giving room to get a little worse.
14.7%
You're definitely right. Thanks.
I'm not talking about drastically changing our lives (although I'm certain that there will be those as well), but in subtle ways, will our lives or the way we go about our days change?
Wearing masks and increased emphasis on handwashing are little things, but with so much emphasis on them, will those become more of the norm (people in many Asian countries wear masks in cities).
Will more companies move to telework and remote accesses rather than keep large open offices?
I think there are going to be a lot of long term realignments out of convenience and efficiency. Remote technologies just allow for less expenses and give workers more freedom and this experience is forcing leaders to knock down whatever barriers they can every day. They aren't going to choose to go back to spending more for no reason. And smart organizations will take advantage of whatever they can.
Not to go too ready player one, but even schooling is sort of proving out a concept that in theory could be more affordable and high quality via remote (certainly wouldn't replace everything, but could shift a % of workforce and change the physical space needs). At the college level that's existed for a while but now we are seeing it can also have applications at the lower levels. I've been watching remote preschool a few times a day for 2 months now and it's intriguing to think of the possibilities as kids get older to at minimum enroll in some specialty electives remotely that they'd be unlikely to have access to in a normal curriculum. I'm sure I'm not the only one genuinely surprised to see how competent and engaged even a 4 year old can be on zoom.
As for office space, there had already been a growing segment of entirely remote organizations who save on that expense and take advantage of a wider recruiting net that's not tied to geography. The capability to do so effectively has been there for at least several years and this crisis has given those old school leaders a front row seat to see that it's pretty doable. Many businesses will still need physical space but I'd expect many will be comfortable taking less to save money and scaling back to what's essential in the physical space while letting workers work remotely more frequently.
Obviously on the personal health side of things we will likely change behavioral things - more prompt vaccinations, telemedicine usage will likely continue for non-Corona things (like ear infections), better hand washing, more focus on local products, perhaps less willing to put up with inconveniences with crowds (less airport travel in the mid terms).
I think if I were in commercial real estate I'd be real worried and I'd be creating flexible plans for any of my existing tenants to remain through this and beyond because the prospect of a market being flooded with capacity and lower demand seems like a bad combination.
Defending ones opinions and defending the choices of politicians is what America is all about. So is questioning flawed and often skewed profile people who self appoint to think they are better equipped to make choices for us. ( that alone is a kind of weird head i don't understand).
As for the media...guys ...they tell stories for a living.
We pick our way through the detrius alone.
Why clutter our time by defending any of these guys?
They are not heros defending us. Our identity is not tied to theirs....what a weird idea.
They merely work for us.
Imo
I use a kn95 mask and pull it up high. Then pull my glass a little more forward than I usually do. The surgical masks are impossible for me
Quote:
being delivered tomorrow.
17.3%.
I see this morning Goldman says it could reach 29% and your number would just squeak over the top number achieved after the '07-'09 recession. I'd prefer yours, giving room to get a little worse.
Oh, that’s my April guess,not total.
When I wore a shield on my hockey helmet I used shampoo to stop it from fogging up. I thought it worked maybe worth trying on glasses.
Quote:
Got a couple of responses which lead me to believe were posted by people who
a)didn’t read the article I linked
b)have no idea who is Anne Applebaum
c)assume she is some partisan hack
d)assume she is some lefty snowflake
e)all of the above
But in fact, she’s been considered a conservative for most of her highly esteemed and highly accomplished career. She’s written and or been an editor for some of the most highly regarded publications such as The Economist, Foreign Affairs, WSJ and on and on. Among academics and professional journalist and think tank thinkers (on all sides of the political spectrum) she’s as highly regarded as anyone on the planet. Suffice to say that if AA is penning a piece saying the world is laughing at US foreign policy leadership (and crying for our citizens) while China (who she routinely and correctly labels as an evil totalitarian regime) is stepping into the power void left by our absent government, well, you can safely assume there’s some fire around all that smoke.
Or, yeah, fuck it, it’s the internet so just jump to a conclusion and throw some dirt.
Please. Applebaum endorsed Hilary and has her POV concerning NATO and the Western Alliance which is at odds with Trump's. The article was written for the Atlantic which let's be kind, would prefer someone other than Trump be President. So let's not pretend she doesn't have a POV and that the people here who want to take her statements with a grain of salt have no point whatsoever.
Could we please just stop -- completely -- all the political crap in this thread? Information relevant to the damned virus, its past, present, and future (causes, effects, and dealing with it medically), should be welcomed. The politics of the poster or of those whose names get into the mix as historians or experts -- to say nothing of those that typify general "news sources," including news channels, newspapers, magazines and so on -- are of no interest and no relevance. The information posted or referred to is solid or not, whatever its source. Carrying on about foreign policy, political leanings, and the expertise (or lack of it) of editors of publications and journals is pretty remote from COVID-19 and, at least to me, useless.
Quote:
Retweeted. I'd say it speaks for itself. He twisted a lot of stuff. - ( New Window )
Here is an analysis of the "fact check" from Guy Benson. If you read without dismissing the source because he's conservative you may find he's fair. Agreeing with some things, but offering evidence of how the WaPo writer really had to try hard to claim some things were wrong - or in some cases simply made biased judgments. link - ( New Window )
That was a fair rebuttal, honestly.
I thought when this started companies may look at getting out of bigger cities but not much talk on that. Seems like it would hurt city living quite a bit as many might not like working from home in much more condensed areas.
Danny......I know when I skied people used to spit in goggles for fog. Hopefully more advanced techniques exist.
You have to get the right mask that allows you to crimp around your hose and get a seal or at least tie it tight enough to get the seal. I recently realized that the mask (those disposable ones) I'm wearing has a thin metal piece on one side (which I realized makes it the top side) that allows me to form around my nose. No more fogging that I used to experience prior to finding that out.
I thought when this started companies may look at getting out of bigger cities but not much talk on that. Seems like it would hurt city living quite a bit as many might not like working from home in much more condensed areas.
Danny......I know when I skied people used to spit in goggles for fog. Hopefully more advanced techniques exist.
With remote work and potentially increased social distancing on a daily basis, will this help to drive down some housing costs in cities? I know that those in service sectors will have to remain close to work and will still need to rent within cities, but increasing number of folks able to remotely work (usually higher earners) may decide to move out of cities.
completely - the amount of opinion transformation I've seen in the last 2 months has been staggering. Although I'd be lying if I said I hadn't gone through a similar progression of strong opinions re: having a physical presence at "HQ"...until circumstances changed and I didn't...
April 2020: labor force: 156,481. Not in labor force: 103,415 (9,916 who would want a job though). UR: 14.7%.
So, either a lot of people who lost jobs all of a sudden dropped out of the labor market (which requires 4 weeks of not searching, but I guess that can be fudged), or nearly EVERYONE who was unemployed before this (in December of 2019, there were 5,753 people unemployed; between March and April, the labor force dropped by 6,450 people) left the labor force.
If this artifice of calculation wasn't done, the current unemployment rate would be...17.1%.
I thought when this started companies may look at getting out of bigger cities but not much talk on that. Seems like it would hurt city living quite a bit as many might not like working from home in much more condensed areas.
Danny......I know when I skied people used to spit in goggles for fog. Hopefully more advanced techniques exist.
I think we are more likely to see workers look to get out of the big cities and take advantage of remote capabilities and lower cost of living with reduced daily commuting. So basically the pendulum swinging back towards suburbs.
Most organizations are already remote capable in a lot of ways so the scaling down of physical space/upgrades are more likely to be subtle shifts (or just allowing more participation/flexibility for a higher% of workforce). I'd expect organizations who still have proximity benefits in big metro areas to remain there, just with less necessary overhead.
Not sure what happens with office space, maybe it will be set up as "hoteling" style space. We have some of that already.
But a big change will be corporate travel. Our company estimates that employee travel and related expenses average around 6% of total SG&A budgets. That could come down significantly and if there are eventually any lease/office space savings that combined saving could be used to beef up the business capabilities in other areas.
I think corporate travel, especially international, will be slashed. I know, I personally have gone to the London for an hour meeting, Zurich for a meeting I wasn't totally necessary, and many other trips that could have been done virtually. Outside my anecdotal world, I think the way we transact business will definitely change going forward.
Just look at the stocks of online collaboration tools like Zoom.
It's not a case of can people work from home, but rather whether it is efficient to do so, and whether people are as productive without a boss looking over their shoulder. This forced period of wfh experiment will provide a lot of data.
I'm not weighing in on one side or the other. I'm sure there are pros and cons.
This pandemic will pass, and industry will return to whatever model presents the best profit line.
Not sure what happens with office space, maybe it will be set up as "hoteling" style space. We have some of that already.
But a big change will be corporate travel. Our company estimates that employee travel and related expenses average around 6% of total SG&A budgets. That could come down significantly and if there are eventually any lease/office space savings that combined saving could be used to beef up the business capabilities in other areas.
I think corporate travel, especially international, will be slashed. I know, I personally have gone to the London for an hour meeting, Zurich for a meeting I wasn't totally necessary, and many other trips that could have been done virtually. Outside my anecdotal world, I think the way we transact business will definitely change going forward.
Just look at the stocks of online collaboration tools like Zoom.
completely agree - the anecdotal will be a major trend.
Security wasn’t too much of an issue since everyone has company issues laptops you vpn in anyway. We have been using aws workspaces for contractors so that is another way to keep tight control.We’ve watched usage skyrocket for Skype but we were able to scale that out horizontally quickly to react.
"...you’ll be pleased to know that, rather than double down on our containment efforts, we’ve decided to dissolve the velociraptor containment task force altogether, and focus instead on how we can get people back into the park as quickly as possible. So rather than concentrating on so-called life-saving measures like “staying in designated safe areas” or “masking your scent,” we’ll be focusing on the details that will get our customers really excited, like a wider selection of fun hats, a pterodactyl-shaped gondola ride to the top of the island, and a brand new Gordon Ramsay designed menu at the Cretaceous Cafe..."
Love this!
Sure, the Velociraptors Are Still On the Loose, But That’s No Reason Not to Reopen Jurassic Park - ( New Window )
Security wasn’t too much of an issue since everyone has company issues laptops you vpn in anyway. We have been using aws workspaces for contractors so that is another way to keep tight control.We’ve watched usage skyrocket for Skype but we were able to scale that out horizontally quickly to react.
5G home service is being touted as a solution.
This last question was particularly interesting and seemed like a more candid than usual answer than you'd normally get from 1 country to another - it also aligns with a lot of what Kicker has said re: the challenge of comparing countries with different healthcare models.
Tegnell: I don't know it well enough but it still seems to me that the Americans let coronavirus go too far before any real strategy came into place. One of the real big problems in the beginning was the lack of testing. I'm also not really sure how well the U.S. health system can change as dramatically as we in Sweden have been able to, for example. We have almost double the intensive care capacity that we had a couple of weeks ago. Being centrally organized and steered (as part of a state-funded system) allows for greater flexibility in changing the health system. I'm not sure how well that can be done in the U.S. with all the private actors and insurance firms. It may make it more difficult to handle this kind of situation.
Swedish official Anders Tegnell says 'herd immunity' in Sweden might be a few weeks away - ( New Window )
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and options in broadband internet. I know some users who have had to use their phones as hotspots to access remotely since their home internet is so crappy. I have one heavily monitored system with 6k users where I’ve seen worse performance due to latency and bandwidth issues since we sent people home. All in all not too bad though. I’ve had a few contact their isp since they weren’t getting what they are paying for.
Security wasn’t too much of an issue since everyone has company issues laptops you vpn in anyway. We have been using aws workspaces for contractors so that is another way to keep tight control.We’ve watched usage skyrocket for Skype but we were able to scale that out horizontally quickly to react.
5G home service is being touted as a solution.
Haha, that’s perfect!
Link - ( New Window )
Didn't she just recently promise she would never lie?
White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said Friday that the documents had not been approved by CDC Director Robert Redfield. The new emails, however, show that Redfield cleared the guidance.
Not only that, but the moron doesn’t even seem to understand that people who have previously tested negative can test positive after the fact. We are so fucked it is beyond comprehension.
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Turns out the CDC Director did approve those guidelines that got squashed. Link - ( New Window )
Didn't she just recently promise she would never lie?
Quote:
White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said Friday that the documents had not been approved by CDC Director Robert Redfield. The new emails, however, show that Redfield cleared the guidance.
She lied 15 mins after her promise not to lie. If you don't count the promise as a lie.
So no need to inject the bleach then.
Quote:
I feel so relieved. The coronavirus will disappear without a vaccine. Such great news.
So no need to inject the bleach then.
But how are her ratings?
This looks like a case for Super Sleuth Dan Crenshaw.
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I feel so relieved. The coronavirus will disappear without a vaccine. Such great news.
So no need to inject the bleach then.
This is where the messaging is confusing. You drink bleach and mainline Lysol. For added protection, you stuff UV bulbs up your bunghole. If you are feeling dangerous, then take a dose of pond cleaner.
Linked is an NPR article regarding the person behind the Plandemic conspiracy, a disgraced scientist with some kookie beliefs and assertions.
Link - ( New Window )
Most of these posts lately are not constructive, they're just negative, whiny, and uninformative. I can get that on twitter or facebook (if I belonged to facebook). I expect better from this place.
@Jordanfabian
·
3m
CDC guidance “shared prematurely” was a “draft” and “had not been vetted” by interagency, Redfield says in stmnt released thru WH. “I had not seen a version of the guidance incorporating interagency & task force input” & “was not yet comfortable releasing a final work product.”
Linked is an NPR article regarding the person behind the Plandemic conspiracy, a disgraced scientist with some kookie beliefs and assertions. Link - ( New Window )
Someone posted the YT link on this thread a few days ago as news. There really is an internet constituency for everything.
Most of these posts lately are not constructive, they're just negative, whiny, and uninformative. I can get that on twitter or facebook (if I belonged to facebook). I expect better from this place.
Quote:
Jordan Fabian
@Jordanfabian
·
3m
CDC guidance “shared prematurely” was a “draft” and “had not been vetted” by interagency, Redfield says in stmnt released thru WH. “I had not seen a version of the guidance incorporating interagency & task force input” & “was not yet comfortable releasing a final work product.”
Expected better from this place? Really? This is a place where people threaten each other over stupid football games. Come on now. You know better.
On April 24, Redfield again emailed the guidance documents to Birx and Grogan, according to a copy viewed by The AP. Redfield asked Birx and Grogan for their review so that the CDC could post the guidance publicly. Attached to Redfield’s email were the guidance documents and the corresponding decision trees — including one for meat packing plants.
“We plan to post these to CDC’s website once approved. Peace, God bless r3,” the director wrote. (Redfield’s initials are R.R.R.)
If these quotes or documents are inaccurate it would go a lot further to produce documents supporting that than a press statement from WH. The last time it was alleged a reporter lied about a Redfield quote he ended up confirming himself it was accurate.
https://apnews.com/9c4d5284ba4769d3b98aa05232201f88 - ( New Window )
I come to the thread for news updates mostly. The discussion has gotten toxic so I don’t really participate in that anymore.
Sounds like CDC is just waiting on final approval from the executive branch to post these very comprehensive and very vital directions.
I'm confident the documents that the CDC director himself said he wants to post will be reviewed and posted soon. That's the important thing -- take the advice from the experts at CDC and craft policy around that.
I'm looking forward to the executive branch supporting the experts here.
They have now switched it back to a cardiac unit because their cases have a dropped
It was telegraphed the other day when Emperor Cuomo said any more than 2 Covid hospitalizations per 100k residents would lead to continued shutdown. An absurdly impossible metric to beat. He’s taking direction from the WHO and from imperial college - two overly conservative foreign advisors - not from American scientists and experts. I don’t know what the motive is to shut down as long as possible - does he think the virus will just disappear? business owners are going to have to start taking legal action - it’s come to the point where we cannot afford this strategy anymore. Sorry.
The justification for a shutdown two months ago was to give our hospitals a chance to cope. That mission was accomplished. A hospital that was built by taxpayers for $10 million hasn’t even been used!! It’s time for legal action.
Officially tired of this.
Quote:
on pause extended to 6.6
It was telegraphed the other day when Emperor Cuomo said any more than 2 Covid hospitalizations per 100k residents would lead to continued shutdown. An absurdly impossible metric to beat. He’s taking direction from the WHO and from imperial college - two overly conservative foreign advisors - not from American scientists and experts. I don’t know what the motive is to shut down as long as possible - does he think the virus will just disappear? business owners are going to have to start taking legal action - it’s come to the point where we cannot afford this strategy anymore. Sorry.
The justification for a shutdown two months ago was to give our hospitals a chance to cope. That mission was accomplished. A hospital that was built by taxpayers for $10 million hasn’t even been used!! It’s time for legal action.
He keeps moving the marker:
Flatten the curve(done)
14 straight days where deaths and hospitalizations go down(done) Been over 4 weeks.
Now it's something else.
Quote:
on pause extended to 6.6
It was telegraphed the other day when Emperor Cuomo said any more than 2 Covid hospitalizations per 100k residents would lead to continued shutdown. An absurdly impossible metric to beat. He’s taking direction from the WHO and from imperial college - two overly conservative foreign advisors - not from American scientists and experts. I don’t know what the motive is to shut down as long as possible - does he think the virus will just disappear? business owners are going to have to start taking legal action - it’s come to the point where we cannot afford this strategy anymore. Sorry.
The justification for a shutdown two months ago was to give our hospitals a chance to cope. That mission was accomplished. A hospital that was built by taxpayers for $10 million hasn’t even been used!! It’s time for legal action.
The self proclaimed King of America, aka the Orange Twitter Hitler, said we should all inject disinfectant, cuz he’s an outside the box kinda thinker!!! As you said “It’s time for legal action!!!” Ohhh wait we tried that twice n it didn’t work!!! Boooooooo!!!! Favorite new bumper sticker who knew I could miss Nixon!!!
Quote:
on pause extended to 6.6
Officially tired of this.
that isnt what it said... basically the parts of the state that dont meet criteria to start opening on 16th will stay on pause until june 6th(think nyc and surrounding downstate counties and western new york), which would be in line with phase 2 opening upstate since he has said its 2 weeks between phases
According to his press secretary he misspoke when we described the order as actually extended.
He's made it quite clear for the last week upstate and downstate will need to be managed very differently.
I wouldn't be phoning my attorney just yet.
According to his press secretary he misspoke when we described the order as actually extended.
He's made it quite clear for the last week upstate and downstate will need to be managed very differently.
I wouldn't be phoning my attorney just yet.
There is no way to open NYC yet, and it shouldnt be open yet..
Upstate new york should not be on the same schedule, just does not make sense to..
Quote:
In comment 14899518 Ryan in Albany said:
Quote:
on pause extended to 6.6
It was telegraphed the other day when Emperor Cuomo said any more than 2 Covid hospitalizations per 100k residents would lead to continued shutdown. An absurdly impossible metric to beat. He’s taking direction from the WHO and from imperial college - two overly conservative foreign advisors - not from American scientists and experts. I don’t know what the motive is to shut down as long as possible - does he think the virus will just disappear? business owners are going to have to start taking legal action - it’s come to the point where we cannot afford this strategy anymore. Sorry.
The justification for a shutdown two months ago was to give our hospitals a chance to cope. That mission was accomplished. A hospital that was built by taxpayers for $10 million hasn’t even been used!! It’s time for legal action.
The self proclaimed King of America, aka the Orange Twitter Hitler, said we should all inject disinfectant, cuz he’s an outside the box kinda thinker!!! As you said “It’s time for legal action!!!” Ohhh wait we tried that twice n it didn’t work!!! Boooooooo!!!! Favorite new bumper sticker who knew I could miss Nixon!!!
Holy fuck. I cannot believe people this stupid exist. Wait, yes I can. How the hell do you dress yourself each? Or don’t you?
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In comment 14899532 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14899518 Ryan in Albany said:
Quote:
on pause extended to 6.6
It was telegraphed the other day when Emperor Cuomo said any more than 2 Covid hospitalizations per 100k residents would lead to continued shutdown. An absurdly impossible metric to beat. He’s taking direction from the WHO and from imperial college - two overly conservative foreign advisors - not from American scientists and experts. I don’t know what the motive is to shut down as long as possible - does he think the virus will just disappear? business owners are going to have to start taking legal action - it’s come to the point where we cannot afford this strategy anymore. Sorry.
The justification for a shutdown two months ago was to give our hospitals a chance to cope. That mission was accomplished. A hospital that was built by taxpayers for $10 million hasn’t even been used!! It’s time for legal action.
The self proclaimed King of America, aka the Orange Twitter Hitler, said we should all inject disinfectant, cuz he’s an outside the box kinda thinker!!! As you said “It’s time for legal action!!!” Ohhh wait we tried that twice n it didn’t work!!! Boooooooo!!!! Favorite new bumper sticker who knew I could miss Nixon!!!
Holy fuck. I cannot believe people this stupid exist. Wait, yes I can. How the hell do you dress yourself each? Or don’t you?
I hope your border collie shepherds you n your family of of sheep n lemmings well!!! Also hope you n your family n friends r safe from the hoax “flu”!!!
Just sayin...
Quote:
on pause extended to 6.6
It was telegraphed the other day when Emperor Cuomo said any more than 2 Covid hospitalizations per 100k residents would lead to continued shutdown. An absurdly impossible metric to beat. He’s taking direction from the WHO and from imperial college - two overly conservative foreign advisors - not from American scientists and experts. I don’t know what the motive is to shut down as long as possible - does he think the virus will just disappear? business owners are going to have to start taking legal action - it’s come to the point where we cannot afford this strategy anymore. Sorry.
The justification for a shutdown two months ago was to give our hospitals a chance to cope. That mission was accomplished. A hospital that was built by taxpayers for $10 million hasn’t even been used!! It’s time for legal action.
I could not agree more.
He is hellbent on not giving murphy a dime because he wsnts to make new jersey a sanctuary state..
Deblasio has already said he wants 7 billion and wont open until he gets it..
it is a big game of chicken right now, now we see who blinks first..
Trump needs the northeast to open and the governors need money to open..they both need each other and would be smart to work together but the egos are way to big
He is hellbent on not giving murphy a dime because he wsnts to make new jersey a sanctuary state..
Deblasio has already said he wants 7 billion and wont open until he gets it..
it is a big game of chicken right now, now we see who blinks first..
Trump needs the northeast to open and the governors need money to open..they both need each other and would be smart to work together but the egos are way to big
I think it’s becoming more and more clear this isn’t about this virus anymore. Problem is there is still a large enough faction of society that is so deeply entrenched in their “side”, they aren’t questioning their side - no matter how irrational it’s becoming. We have flattened the curve, the hospitals are becoming empty, the disease is much less deadly than originally feared if you believe the antibody test returns and the business owners who have been forced shut are clinging to life at this point. Enough is enough.
Quote:
Yes you have to be smart about opening and i am not saying rush it, but the northeast governors are aaking for money and trump right now is not budging..
He is hellbent on not giving murphy a dime because he wsnts to make new jersey a sanctuary state..
Deblasio has already said he wants 7 billion and wont open until he gets it..
it is a big game of chicken right now, now we see who blinks first..
Trump needs the northeast to open and the governors need money to open..they both need each other and would be smart to work together but the egos are way to big
I think it’s becoming more and more clear this isn’t about this virus anymore. Problem is there is still a large enough faction of society that is so deeply entrenched in their “side”, they aren’t questioning their side - no matter how irrational it’s becoming. We have flattened the curve, the hospitals are becoming empty, the disease is much less deadly than originally feared if you believe the antibody test returns and the business owners who have been forced shut are clinging to life at this point. Enough is enough.
Bith sides are screwing this up now..
to many egos
Quote:
Yes you have to be smart about opening and i am not saying rush it, but the northeast governors are aaking for money and trump right now is not budging..
He is hellbent on not giving murphy a dime because he wsnts to make new jersey a sanctuary state..
Deblasio has already said he wants 7 billion and wont open until he gets it..
it is a big game of chicken right now, now we see who blinks first..
Trump needs the northeast to open and the governors need money to open..they both need each other and would be smart to work together but the egos are way to big
I think it’s becoming more and more clear this isn’t about this virus anymore. Problem is there is still a large enough faction of society that is so deeply entrenched in their “side”, they aren’t questioning their side - no matter how irrational it’s becoming. We have flattened the curve, the hospitals are becoming empty, the disease is much less deadly than originally feared if you believe the antibody test returns and the business owners who have been forced shut are clinging to life at this point. Enough is enough.
its also about being better prepared in case of another phase in the future so we are not caught with our pants down like we were this time because of the presidents slow closing of europe travel
Quote:
In comment 14899652 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
Yes you have to be smart about opening and i am not saying rush it, but the northeast governors are aaking for money and trump right now is not budging..
He is hellbent on not giving murphy a dime because he wsnts to make new jersey a sanctuary state..
Deblasio has already said he wants 7 billion and wont open until he gets it..
it is a big game of chicken right now, now we see who blinks first..
Trump needs the northeast to open and the governors need money to open..they both need each other and would be smart to work together but the egos are way to big
I think it’s becoming more and more clear this isn’t about this virus anymore. Problem is there is still a large enough faction of society that is so deeply entrenched in their “side”, they aren’t questioning their side - no matter how irrational it’s becoming. We have flattened the curve, the hospitals are becoming empty, the disease is much less deadly than originally feared if you believe the antibody test returns and the business owners who have been forced shut are clinging to life at this point. Enough is enough.
its also about being better prepared in case of another phase in the future so we are not caught with our pants down like we were this time because of the presidents slow closing of europe travel
So you honestly believe that? Oh and thanks for making my point.
Quote:
In comment 14899652 nygiants16 said:
Quote:
Yes you have to be smart about opening and i am not saying rush it, but the northeast governors are aaking for money and trump right now is not budging..
He is hellbent on not giving murphy a dime because he wsnts to make new jersey a sanctuary state..
Deblasio has already said he wants 7 billion and wont open until he gets it..
it is a big game of chicken right now, now we see who blinks first..
Trump needs the northeast to open and the governors need money to open..they both need each other and would be smart to work together but the egos are way to big
I think it’s becoming more and more clear this isn’t about this virus anymore. Problem is there is still a large enough faction of society that is so deeply entrenched in their “side”, they aren’t questioning their side - no matter how irrational it’s becoming. We have flattened the curve, the hospitals are becoming empty, the disease is much less deadly than originally feared if you believe the antibody test returns and the business owners who have been forced shut are clinging to life at this point. Enough is enough.
Bith sides are screwing this up now..
to many egos
Agreed.
i dont think this will be for naught no matter what as the stay at home has saved a number of lives and hopefully if a second wave comes we will be better prepared for it with treatments and planning
We will never know if we don’t try. NY is in much better shape than originally feared. Much better. But we are going on almost 2 months of this and another month at least in front of us. There are too many people completely content with taking what’s coming out of Albany as gospel and willing to stay locked down and at the mercy of our governor. I thought Cuomo was doing a good job early on presenting facts in his daily briefings, unlike Trump’s daily disasters, but it’s becoming clear what this really is about. I admit I lean right but at some point, people have to start looking at the people they vote for and question their motives. I know I do. This isn’t about the virus anymore.
Quote:
wave that'll be worse than the first wave & all this will have gone for naught. I get both sides: we got to reopen the economy, but we also need to be safe & vigilant.
We will never know if we don’t try. NY is in much better shape than originally feared. Much better. But we are going on almost 2 months of this and another month at least in front of us. There are too many people completely content with taking what’s coming out of Albany as gospel and willing to stay locked down and at the mercy of our governor. I thought Cuomo was doing a good job early on presenting facts in his daily briefings, unlike Trump’s daily disasters, but it’s becoming clear what this really is about. I admit I lean right but at some point, people have to start looking at the people they vote for and question their motives. I know I do. This isn’t about the virus anymore.
most of upstate is going to be opening on saturday for phase 1 of the re open plan. Everyone knows cuomo s bread is buttered down state and in the capital region, at least he finally figured out upstate should be on different plan than downstate
[quote] The lemmings here put the North Koreans to shame. But at least North Koreans have an excuse. [/quot
Lol
Just keep the relevant numbers from a neutral source, like ourworldindata.org., in mind. Our national case fatality rate, the likelihood of dying if you get a reported case of it, is just over 6% now. Higher if you're older. (Sweden? Not so good: over 12%. there.) If that number for us keeps going up instead of down, we're screwing this up.
I hear you but the one sized fits all approach has to stop. We are just now stunningly two months later doing it by region within a state ... but this evil enemy Kills by age and preexisting conditions. We know who it kills. I’m embarrassed and stunned and I’m blaming both parties how shockingly
High level these ‘reopen’ plans are. This wouldn’t get past a mid level review in a corporate environment let alone a Board.
Meanwhile Cuomo tells the private sector to go fuck themselves for a third month but not one member of his administration or public sector employee or MTA employee has been cut a dime. My property taxes haven’t been cut by one cent. Private sector feels all the pain. Why work hard?
https://www.everydayhealth.com/coronavirus/a-heartburn-drug-for-coronavirus-all-about-an-unusual-study/
Seems the heartburn drug Famotidine is helpful against the virus.
Quote:
wave that'll be worse than the first wave & all this will have gone for naught. I get both sides: we got to reopen the economy, but we also need to be safe & vigilant.
I hear you but the one sized fits all approach has to stop. We are just now stunningly two months later doing it by region within a state ... but this evil enemy Kills by age and preexisting conditions. We know who it kills. I’m embarrassed and stunned and I’m blaming both parties how shockingly
High level these ‘reopen’ plans are. This wouldn’t get past a mid level review in a corporate environment let alone a Board.
Meanwhile Cuomo tells the private sector to go fuck themselves for a third month but not one member of his administration or public sector employee or MTA employee has been cut a dime. My property taxes haven’t been cut by one cent. Private sector feels all the pain. Why work hard?
JFC, I don't even disagree with your general sentiment at this point in time ("re-open" is a bullshit phrase that means nothing, but I 100% want things to go back to normal ASAP) -- but it's fuckin insane you're acting like the private sector is getting fucked while the "public" sector is padding their pockets at Cuomo's own volition.
The MTA has a higher covid-related death rate than pretty much any other subsection of workers. You think this is an evil plot to just keep state employees working while others are kept out of work?
Your post spits in the face of the people who put themselves at danger to keep our city running.
Unfuckingreal. Cry me a river about the "private sector" (as you reductively phrased it).
And before you inevitably attack my post, keep in mind I GENRALLY AGREE WITH YOU by this point. But the motive you allege and the pure callousness you displayed is awful. YOU go keep the fucking subways running in a pandemic.
The thought that MTA workers are laughing their way to the bank due to Cuomo's manipulation while the oh-so-poor public sector stuggles ane is taken advantage of is one of the stupidest fucking things I've heard. And I say that as someone who not only lost their job due to covid.
Your poor, poor property tax bill, when MTA workers and NYPD aere dying at unprecedente rateas.
Clearly you on,y give a fuck about your bank account, but at least try to dress it up better nest time.
Won't anyone think of poor MAB's property taxes :,(
What a fucking joke lol. Your hubris is actually impressive.
HHS turned him down.
Many front-line workers died due to insufficient PPE. The virus spread faster and more widely due to insufficient PPE. And the federal government had to scramble to make bulk-order purchases, at times to unscrupulous manufacturers, and many multiples the price-- largely due to incompetence and unpreparedness at the outset.
This all ties in with the struggle to re-open the economy as well. We are in this current situation because of what we didn't do initially.
Massive fucking incompetence that goes all the way up to a naked emperor. And before this gets decried as "political," note that I am not referring to "Emperor Cuomo."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/in-the-early-days-of-the-pandemic-the-us-government-turned-down-an-offer-to-manufacture-millions-of-n95-masks-in-america/2020/05/09/f76a821e-908a-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html - ( New Window )
So we are all eager to move through the phases of re-opening, which if we take a step back for a second we should be optimistic about because it is happening. In CA for example we are 1 phase away from child care and live sports without audiences. But as much as we want that if there's an error it needs to be on the slower side vs. too quickly, because any sizeable snap backs to a stronger lock down state is the disaster that needs to be avoided at all costs (and more-so economically than anything else). The PPP and stimulus programs at best bought a chunk of the country 2-3 months which is almost up. These rolling openings are going to be able to give us a chance to start returning to normalcy but they come with several challenges and the better planned and the more effective these openings are the more likely they are to stick. The more therapeutics that are working the better, the more testing/PPE the better, the more tracking/tracing the better, and most importantly the more everyone takes seriously their individual responsibilities to follow the guidance, and the better the guidance in general, the better. SK is probably the gold standard of tracking/tracing/testing which is why they have so few cases and they just tried to allow the re-opening of bars/nightclubs and it caused a mini outbreak which is to simply say that even in the best possible circumstances there is going to be some breakage and some activities that just won't be able to return to normal for a long time (live sporting events likely included).
Here are a couple of quotes from a short letter from 2 Johns Hopkins epidemiologists in the last couple days that pretty concisely explains that based on the best info we currently have, we are still in the early innings of this thing. IMO the best case would be that we over-prepare now and proceed with these re-openings with as much caution as possible because that gives us the best chance to stay on the track returning to normalcy.
Johns Hopkins - Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception - ( New Window )
To me, the problem comes back to greed and putting money and business above all else. In a word, neoliberalism. Until we solve that problem it won’t ever really matter who’s the political head of either political party. Meanwhile many in some countries around the world, people are getting on with their lives. What are they doing which we are not?
Link - ( New Window )
So we are all eager to move through the phases of re-opening, which if we take a step back for a second we should be optimistic about because it is happening. In CA for example we are 1 phase away from child care and live sports without audiences. But as much as we want that if there's an error it needs to be on the slower side vs. too quickly, because any sizeable snap backs to a stronger lock down state is the disaster that needs to be avoided at all costs (and more-so economically than anything else). The PPP and stimulus programs at best bought a chunk of the country 2-3 months which is almost up. These rolling openings are going to be able to give us a chance to start returning to normalcy but they come with several challenges and the better planned and the more effective these openings are the more likely they are to stick. The more therapeutics that are working the better, the more testing/PPE the better, the more tracking/tracing the better, and most importantly the more everyone takes seriously their individual responsibilities to follow the guidance, and the better the guidance in general, the better. SK is probably the gold standard of tracking/tracing/testing which is why they have so few cases and they just tried to allow the re-opening of bars/nightclubs and it caused a mini outbreak which is to simply say that even in the best possible circumstances there is going to be some breakage and some activities that just won't be able to return to normal for a long time (live sporting events likely included).
Here are a couple of quotes from a short letter from 2 Johns Hopkins epidemiologists in the last couple days that pretty concisely explains that based on the best info we currently have, we are still in the early innings of this thing. IMO the best case would be that we over-prepare now and proceed with these re-openings with as much caution as possible because that gives us the best chance to stay on the track returning to normalcy.
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Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4%(ref3–5) of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%(ref6,7) of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.(ref8)
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To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.
Johns Hopkins - Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception - ( New Window )
I’d be surprised if there ever was herd immunity from a natural outbreak. That’s why we need vaccines.
Also, when you think about it, the policies we have, e.g. social distancing, are directly contradictory to the development of herd immunity.
Link - ( New Window )
That is irrespective of whether or not we had chosen to remain fully open, or what we are seeing today, which is a mish-mash of regional policies for various phases of re-opening, in part linked to poor initial responses that eliminated a lot of potential options.
If the reporting is accurate, Chinese leadership pressured WHO leadership to hold back information regarding human-to-human transmission on a Jan. 21 call. The WHO communicated publicly that day there was building evidence there was evidence of transmission to healthcare workers and that an emergency committee should be convened.
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China pressured WHO to delay global coronavirus warning: report Link - ( New Window )
If the reporting is accurate, Chinese leadership pressured WHO leadership to hold back information regarding human-to-human transmission on a Jan. 21 call. The WHO communicated publicly that day there was building evidence there was evidence of transmission to healthcare workers and that an emergency committee should be convened.
The WHO denied yesterday that they've had any direct conversations with Xi and separately it had been publicly reported on 1/20 that China confirmed human-to-human transmission.
China confirms human-to-human transmission of new coronavirus - ( New Window )
Yeah the whole story seems either inaccurate or immaterial.
No one should be surprised the Chinese were cagey about the facts and not forthright with the international community.
The problem is, it seems as if the U.S. cannot separate these considerations from other international efforts. For instance, based on WHO recommendations, international bodies tried to coordinate a global ceasefire while the epidemic rages (which is largely a symbolic action, to be fair). But it seems as if U.S. anger at the WHO and China derailed this measure, which has annoyed a lot of other countries.
That's what annoys me about our response. We can both simultaneously work with the WHO for global efforts, while condemning their responses (along with China) to COVID-19.
Most stories I've read about procurement issues involve a demand on the part of the supplier for almost instantaneous acceptance of the offer. Gov't procurement doesn't work at that speed.
The problem is, it seems as if the U.S. cannot separate these considerations from other international efforts. For instance, based on WHO recommendations, international bodies tried to coordinate a global ceasefire while the epidemic rages (which is largely a symbolic action, to be fair). But it seems as if U.S. anger at the WHO and China derailed this measure, which has annoyed a lot of other countries.
That's what annoys me about our response. We can both simultaneously work with the WHO for global efforts, while condemning their responses (along with China) to COVID-19.
Good post. That’s a fair assessment
So if the optimal outcome is more transparency to put the US in a better position, is the best option to 1) take our toys and go home 2) assert our power as the primary financier and influence from a position of strength.
That is, if the goal is to put the US in a better position.
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In comment 14899663 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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wave that'll be worse than the first wave & all this will have gone for naught. I get both sides: we got to reopen the economy, but we also need to be safe & vigilant.
I hear you but the one sized fits all approach has to stop. We are just now stunningly two months later doing it by region within a state ... but this evil enemy Kills by age and preexisting conditions. We know who it kills. I’m embarrassed and stunned and I’m blaming both parties how shockingly
High level these ‘reopen’ plans are. This wouldn’t get past a mid level review in a corporate environment let alone a Board.
Meanwhile Cuomo tells the private sector to go fuck themselves for a third month but not one member of his administration or public sector employee or MTA employee has been cut a dime. My property taxes haven’t been cut by one cent. Private sector feels all the pain. Why work hard?
JFC, I don't even disagree with your general sentiment at this point in time ("re-open" is a bullshit phrase that means nothing, but I 100% want things to go back to normal ASAP) -- but it's fuckin insane you're acting like the private sector is getting fucked while the "public" sector is padding their pockets at Cuomo's own volition.
The MTA has a higher covid-related death rate than pretty much any other subsection of workers. You think this is an evil plot to just keep state employees working while others are kept out of work?
Your post spits in the face of the people who put themselves at danger to keep our city running.
Unfuckingreal. Cry me a river about the "private sector" (as you reductively phrased it).
And before you inevitably attack my post, keep in mind I GENRALLY AGREE WITH YOU by this point. But the motive you allege and the pure callousness you displayed is awful. YOU go keep the fucking subways running in a pandemic.
The thought that MTA workers are laughing their way to the bank due to Cuomo's manipulation while the oh-so-poor public sector stuggles ane is taken advantage of is one of the stupidest fucking things I've heard. And I say that as someone who not only lost their job due to covid.
Your poor, poor property tax bill, when MTA workers and NYPD aere dying at unprecedente rateas.
Clearly you on,y give a fuck about your bank account, but at least try to dress it up better nest time.
Won't anyone think of poor MAB's property taxes :,(
What a fucking joke lol. Your hubris is actually impressive.
Generalize much? We are obviously just people with completely different outlooks on life and I won’t try to change your opinion at this point, nor will it try to be your friend. I know over 10 people at the MTA and several folks in government in this state. You are i am sure aware that when Cuomo asked the MTA to clean the subways overnight a few weeks back that the mta, despite paid two week leave for half its employees (most of their employees work two weeks then get two weeks paid leave)... refused and said It wasn’t in their contract and demanded overtime. The mta is now asking for a $5 billion handout - much of which covers prior years corruption.
But yes, you already knew that I am sure there are good individuals within that organization - in fact I know there are. But you pretending they are an altruistic organization doing Gods work? You’re on another planet.
I also find it funny that anyone that wants this state opened up after TWO months now of shutdown .... When hospitals have plenty of capacity .... only cares about his bank account. The private sector unemployment hit 15% on Friday you dumb shit and it’s getting worse. Meanwhile every public worker still has a job. If restaurant and retail and commercial real estate and barbers have to be unemployed and try to collect unemployment .... why aren’t teachers, yes the MtA... and certainly political administrations sharing in this pain?
Very presumptuous of you to assume that I or anyone that doesn’t work for the government can still pay property taxes because this 3 Month now (June 6) lockdown has catastrophic economic impact on the private sector. Property taxes don’t give a shit if you’re employed and making any money - fuck you, pay me.
So we fire hotel workers and bartenders and construction workers and any other service employee who’s services aren’t needed .... but we haven’t even shaved call it 20% off our teachers pension contributions let alone salaries through this?
And I’m certainly not for that by the way .... but if you’re going to insist on remaining shutdown even as your hospitals have capacity and cost the private sector their livelihoods in the process - then you sure should share in the pain. Somehow I think if that was on the table NY would be under a lot more pressure to reopen by now.
Word!!!
In 2003, in Malaysia, he warned 60 Minutes a pandemic was coming.
Peter Daszak in 2003 interview: What worries me the most is that we are going to miss the next emerging disease, that we're suddenly going to find a SARS virus that moves from one part of the planet to another, wiping out people as it moves along.
In the 17 years since that prophecy, Peter Daszak became president of the New York-based EcoHealth Alliance.
Peter Daszak: We're a nonprofit research organization that focuses on understanding where the pandemics come from, what's the risk of future pandemics and can we get in between this pandemic and the next one and disrupt it and stop it.
In China, EcoHealth has worked for 15 years with the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Together they've catalogued hundreds of bat viruses, research that is critical right now.
Peter Daszak: The breakthrough drug, Remdesivir, that seems to have some impact on COVID-19 was actually tested against the viruses we discovered under our NIH research funding.
Scott Pelley: And so that testing would not have been possible--
Peter Daszak: No, it would not.
Scott Pelley: --if it hadn't been for the work that you did with the NIH grant?
Peter Daszak: Correct.
But his funding from the NIH, the U.S. National Institutes of Health, was killed, two weeks ago, by a political disinformation campaign targeting China's Wuhan Institute.
On April 14, Florida Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz claimed China's Wuhan Institute had, quote, "birthed a monster." Gaetz is a vigorous defender of the president. He's been under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for allegedly threatening a witness against Mr. Trump and he led a protest to delay impeachment testimony.
Matt Gaetz on "Tucker Carlson Tonight": The NIH gives this $3.7 million grant to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, they then advertise that they need coronavirus researchers. Following that, coronavirus erupts in Wuhan.
There never was a $3.7 million U.S. grant to the Wuhan lab. But, the falsehood spread like a virus, in the White House, and without verification, in the briefing room.
Reporter in White House press briefing: There's also another report that the NIH, under the Obama administration, in 2015 gave that lab $3.7 million in a grant. Why would the U.S. give a grant like that to China?
President Trump: The Obama administration gave them a grant of $3.7 million? I've been hearing about that. And we've instructed that if any grants are going to that area – we're looking at it, literally, about an hour ago, and also early in the morning. We will end that grant very quickly.
That grant was to Peter Daszak's U.S.-based EcoHealth Alliance for disease prevention it does throughout the world. His work was considered so important that, last year, the grant was reauthorized and increased by the Trump administration.
Daszak had been spending about $100,000 a year collaborating with the Wuhan lab.
The Chinese Communist Party has also blocked the truth. In the earliest days, the doctor in Wuhan who discovered the outbreak was silenced by local officials. He later died of COVID-19. In February, the Chinese did allow a visit by an international team of experts including American scientists.
President Trump at State of the Union on 2/4/20: We are coordinating with the Chinese government and working closely together on the coronavirus outbreak in China.
Initially, President Trump praised China. But in the following weeks, testing in the U.S. failed to catch up to the need, vital equipment was short, bodies filled refrigerated trailers, and science was continuously challenged.
President Trump at 4/23/20 briefing: Then I see disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute, and is there a way we can do something like that by injection?
As the U.S. led the world in illness and death, the White House moved the focus to the Chinese government.Last Sunday, Secretary of State Mike Pomepo attempted to resurrect a debunked theory that the virus was man-made in China.
Mike Pompeo on ABC's "This Week": Look, the best experts so far seem to think it was man-made. I have no reason to disbelieve that at this point.
He did have reason. Days before, the director of national intelligence said there was "wide scientific consensus" the virus was not man-made.
Martha Raddatz on ABC's "This Week": Your Office of the DNI says the consensus, the scientific consensus was not man-made or genetically modified.
Mike Pompeo on ABC's "This Week": That's right. I agree with that.
Peter Daszak: This politicization of science is really damaging. You know, the conspiracy theories out there have essentially closed down communication between scientists in China and scientists in the U.S. We need that communication in an outbreak to learn from them how they control it so we can control it better. It's sad to say, but it will probably cost lives. By sort of narrow-mindedly focusing in on ourselves, or on labs, or on certain cultural politics, we miss the real enemy.
News article containing the piece: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-coronavirus-vaccine-researcher-covid-19-cure-60-minutes/
Direct Youtube to 60 minutes piece
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHaeCNPxZ6M
That is irrespective of whether or not we had chosen to remain fully open, or what we are seeing today, which is a mish-mash of regional policies for various phases of re-opening, in part linked to poor initial responses that eliminated a lot of potential options.
Kicker: Your reaction to today's WSJ story on this (economic prospects), the 2008 extended "recovery," and the internal comments? Bleak. Isn't the L-shaped version a real possibility? Is that your view? There's a huge difference, of course, between wanting and even predicting a vaccine solution and actually ever getting one.
Pelley's reporting is untrue and dishonest
The $3.7M grant was first reported by the Daily Mail, which is never mentioned in his report.
Here is USA Today's fact check on the issue
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/05/04/fact-check-obama-administration-did-not-send-3-7-m-wuhan-lab/3061490001/
The report gained traction on social media, and the claim was repeated by political figures.
“For years, the US government has been funding cruel animal experiments at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which may have contributed to the global spread of COVID-19,” Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., tweeted April 13. Gaetz praised President Donald Trump on Fox News for "committing to end this America Last grant given to labs in Wuhan by the Obama administration!"
Also according to Snopes, some of the money did go to the Wuhan lab.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/obama-admin-wuhan-lab-grant/
A portion of $3.7 million in grants awarded between 2014 and 2019 by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to EcoHealth Alliance, a global environmental health nonprofit organization, helped fund research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China.
What's False
However, not all of that $3.7 million went to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and not all of the funding took place under the Obama administration. Approximately $700,000 of the $3.7 million total was approved under Donald Trump.
USA Today, Snopes and the Daily Mail are all left leaning organizations.
They estimate lockdown deaths will eventually surpass virus deaths.
link - ( New Window )
I'm not sure why it matters where the original mischaracterization occurred, the Dailymail report was sourced in documents they received that apparently passed their standards so they ran the story. Misinformation can come from anywhere and reporters/newspapers are generally trying to chase stories that deliver them traffic over most anything (assuming it passes their editorial standards - which certainly differ outlet to outlet).
They estimate lockdown deaths will eventually surpass virus deaths. link - ( New Window )
How do you tell what is a "lockdown death" vs. a death for someone who is too afraid to go to the hospital, lockdown or not? There is a problem right now with people (with COVID symptoms or otherwise) not going to to the hospital until its too late. It's made treatment of
COVID cases more problematic.
We sheltered in place to keep hospitals under capacity. Our hospital ER does a pretty good job of separating COVID cases from the general population. We need to trust our medical professionals and get the care we need or this whole thing was for naught.
Matt Gaetz took false information (that the US granted $3.7 million to the Wuhan lab), and either didn't fact check it or didn't care, blasted the inaccurate number on Tucker Carlson's show. Because it's not about the truth. It's about the impact on who listens.
Then that garbage propaganda site Newsmax took that same fake amount, posed to POTUS in an official briefing, and POTUS irresponsibly and inaccurately echoed and acknowledged that amount, that it was done by Obama, and that he was ending it and fixing a non-existent issue.
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even the growing possibility of not only a Fall, but early 2021 resurgence of this virus, this economic recovery (when it happens) will not be v-shaped, but will likely be large-scale economic malaise in a lot of sectors for several years.
That is irrespective of whether or not we had chosen to remain fully open, or what we are seeing today, which is a mish-mash of regional policies for various phases of re-opening, in part linked to poor initial responses that eliminated a lot of potential options.
Kicker: Your reaction to today's WSJ story on this (economic prospects), the 2008 extended "recovery," and the internal comments? Bleak. Isn't the L-shaped version a real possibility? Is that your view? There's a huge difference, of course, between wanting and even predicting a vaccine solution and actually ever getting one.
Without massive additional stimulus, increases in how quickly consumers spend money (money velocities), and a return to about 30 years ago when we didn't have just back-breaking debt that every president has increased, I don't see a way of quick recovery.
So, yes, it's likely going to be a slow, "L" recovery.
Matt Gaetz took false information (that the US granted $3.7 million to the Wuhan lab), and either didn't fact check it or didn't care, blasted the inaccurate number on Tucker Carlson's show. Because it's not about the truth. It's about the impact on who listens.
Then that garbage propaganda site Newsmax took that same fake amount, posed to POTUS in an official briefing, and POTUS irresponsibly and inaccurately echoed and acknowledged that amount, that it was done by Obama, and that he was ending it and fixing a non-existent issue.
Not arguing anything, just correcting Pelley, and CBS’ inaccurate reporting and fact checking. Even if you want to fault Gaetz for not verifying the information, which is fine, the source of the false information should at least be mentioned and scrutinized to the same degree.
What I think is arguable is if it was done purposefully. If it was the Daily Wire or the Daily Caller instead of the Daily Beast, I bet that info wouldn’t have been omitted.
What no longer needs to be modeled here in the US is that for the last month Covid became the leading cause of death, which would seem a pretty big validator for the priority being to slowing it down. Especially since it's highly contagious unlike all of those other causes of death. If it's the leading cause of death right now with infection projections between 2-4% of the population, what would that look like when get to 10% across the country? We know what 20% looks like in a hotspot (NYC). But what would 20% look like across the entire country? What would 30% or 40% have looked like in NYC? If we estimate high and say we have 80k deaths right now at 5% infections, does that mean almost 500k deaths at 25% and almost 1m at 50%?
At a base level that's the decision (or gamble rather). Do we do what we can to slow that down or roll the dice and see what happens? There's no way to go back in time and change the decision once the cat is out of the bag so railing against the data not being good enough seems myopic.
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what are you actually arguing?
Matt Gaetz took false information (that the US granted $3.7 million to the Wuhan lab), and either didn't fact check it or didn't care, blasted the inaccurate number on Tucker Carlson's show. Because it's not about the truth. It's about the impact on who listens.
Then that garbage propaganda site Newsmax took that same fake amount, posed to POTUS in an official briefing, and POTUS irresponsibly and inaccurately echoed and acknowledged that amount, that it was done by Obama, and that he was ending it and fixing a non-existent issue.
Not arguing anything, just correcting Pelley, and CBS’ inaccurate reporting and fact checking. Even if you want to fault Gaetz for not verifying the information, which is fine, the source of the false information should at least be mentioned and scrutinized to the same degree.
What I think is arguable is if it was done purposefully. If it was the Daily Wire or the Daily Caller instead of the Daily Beast, I bet that info wouldn’t have been omitted.
The source of the mischaracterized information was whoever sent the documents to the Dailymail - which we have no insight into - but as you pointed out the media fact checks from US organizations seemed to quickly point out the distortion.
Yeah I want to watch baseball again right now and I'd love to go to the 2 concerts I have tickets for that have been postponed, but I don't need either of them that badly.
That the amount was first reported, inaccurately, by The Daily Mail isn't all that relevant to what happened next. The Daily Mail is a tabloid, banned by Wikipedia, and not known for maintaining a high level of journalistic standards. Also, where did you get the notion that The Daily Mail was "left leaning?"
The idea that a congressman would use a report from a tabloid as the tip of a spear says everything you need to know. And yet, Gaetz repeatedly harped on the $3.7 million figure on Twitter and He then told it on Tucker Carlson's show. It was then asked directly to, and confirmed* by the President (in the mealy-mouthed way the President speaks), as to that amount.
Matt Gaetz, a congressman, repeated the lie that the virus was man-made-- which Mike Pompeo lied about, despite also acknowledging scientific consensus said the opposite.
That the amount was first reported, inaccurately, by The Daily Mail isn't all that relevant to what happened next. The Daily Mail is a tabloid, banned by Wikipedia, and not known for maintaining a high level of journalistic standards. Also, where did you get the notion that The Daily Mail was "left leaning?"
The idea that a congressman would use a report from a tabloid as the tip of a spear says everything you need to know. And yet, Gaetz repeatedly harped on the $3.7 million figure on Twitter and He then told it on Tucker Carlson's show. It was then asked directly to, and confirmed* by the President (in the mealy-mouthed way the President speaks), as to that amount.
Matt Gaetz, a congressman, repeated the lie that the virus was man-made-- which Mike Pompeo lied about, despite also acknowledging scientific consensus said the opposite.
I misread the source.. I thought it said Daily Beast.
We agree about Gaetz, my problem was with the reporting. Big difference between Daily Mail and Daily Beast, however. My bad!
Yeah I want to watch baseball again right now and I'd love to go to the 2 concerts I have tickets for that have been postponed, but I don't need either of them that badly.
Yeah I'm shocked even after things like the VA home in Paramus there are still questions as to whether or not the downside risk was overhyped. I live in an area of the country that hasn't been hit hard, and with a newborn and a toddler I would love nothing more than to let grandparents visit and see preschool/camps start opening up again in some capacity, but not so much that it's worth risking the staff (who are mostly older) if they can't find a way to do it safely. We need to find ways to solve for doing things safely so that the reopenings can last. The worst case for everything is if there's regression in the phased reopenings.
They are doing daily testing and tracing in the WH and half of the task force is on some level of quarantine right now which is to simply say that reopening and keeping transmission levels low is an enormous logistical challenge.
Without massive additional stimulus, increases in how quickly consumers spend money (money velocities), and a return to about 30 years ago when we didn't have just back-breaking debt that every president has increased, I don't see a way of quick recovery.
So, yes, it's likely going to be a slow, "L" recovery.
Darkness, indeed. Even forgetting about the money velocities piece (seems unlikely at the moment), it seems clear that we're not going to be willing or able to return to national debt reduction any time soon. Actually, is that even a goal to be pursued any more? (Sorry to wander if that's regarded as off topic.)
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. . .
Without massive additional stimulus, increases in how quickly consumers spend money (money velocities), and a return to about 30 years ago when we didn't have just back-breaking debt that every president has increased, I don't see a way of quick recovery.
So, yes, it's likely going to be a slow, "L" recovery.
Darkness, indeed. Even forgetting about the money velocities piece (seems unlikely at the moment), it seems clear that we're not going to be willing or able to return to national debt reduction any time soon. Actually, is that even a goal to be pursued any more? (Sorry to wander if that's regarded as off topic.)
Yes, I ask this all the time. Can the USA just run up endless debt and print money forever.
How could the current debt ever be paid back? No one pursues this goal as you stated. Quite the opposite, just create money and spend endlessly.
Can it go on forever?
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. . .
Without massive additional stimulus, increases in how quickly consumers spend money (money velocities), and a return to about 30 years ago when we didn't have just back-breaking debt that every president has increased, I don't see a way of quick recovery.
So, yes, it's likely going to be a slow, "L" recovery.
Darkness, indeed. Even forgetting about the money velocities piece (seems unlikely at the moment), it seems clear that we're not going to be willing or able to return to national debt reduction any time soon. Actually, is that even a goal to be pursued any more? (Sorry to wander if that's regarded as off topic.)
Debt reduction should be a priority, because it maintains the U.S. as the reserve currency. And it eliminates a lot of burden on the newly born generation (or unborn generations), who are going to inherit this shit and absolutely fucking hate us.
But the problem is when the constraint we have to face is just be slightly less bad than the next nearest country, where is the incentive to be good?
The problem is, the ratio was 91 in 2010 (EU was about 80 then, but that's a "risk premium" priced in). Now, it is 106 (EU still around 80).
The problem is is that we keep ramping it up and proposing stupid shit like income tax cuts or payroll tax cuts, but ignore the massive increases in deficit spending because we're unwilling to touch entitlements or defense spending.
What's going to happen, at this rate, is if we keep it up, soon enough we will be the outlier, and no one will be willing to touch our currency. And you can thank both Republicans and Democrats for this, neither of whom give a shit because they are all millionaires/billionaires.
The biggest farce is calling anything a "middle income tax cut".
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In comment 14900331 kicker said:
Debt reduction should be a priority, because it maintains the U.S. as the reserve currency. And it eliminates a lot of burden on the newly born generation (or unborn generations), who are going to inherit this shit and absolutely fucking hate us.
But the problem is when the constraint we have to face is just be slightly less bad than the next nearest country, where is the incentive to be good?
The problem is, the ratio was 91 in 2010 (EU was about 80 then, but that's a "risk premium" priced in). Now, it is 106 (EU still around 80).
Don't worry, they can't hate us if we kill them by destroying the planet first!
But, remember, traffic accident fatalities!
You know the deficit was going to be 1 Trillion this year BEFORE Covid19 ?
funny how no-one has mention debt or deficit for 3 years .. hmmm wonder WHY?
White House now requiring face mask in office .. along with daily testing and contract tracing .. but the rest of US is suppose to open up with none of these things really in place or required.
November can't get here soon enough.
Debt reduction should be a priority, because it maintains the U.S. as the reserve currency. And it eliminates a lot of burden on the newly born generation (or unborn generations), who are going to inherit this shit and absolutely fucking hate us.
But the problem is when the constraint we have to face is just be slightly less bad than the next nearest country, where is the incentive to be good?
The problem is, the ratio was 91 in 2010 (EU was about 80 then, but that's a "risk premium" priced in). Now, it is 106 (EU still around 80).
Sorry, but please explain the ratios to which you refer in the last sentence above.
Reserve currency: hard to imagine what could replace ours. Our underlying economy is being rearranged because of the virus, but so is everyone else's. We don't seem at the moment to present any rational default risk. What else matters?
Blows my mind.
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. . .
Debt reduction should be a priority, because it maintains the U.S. as the reserve currency. And it eliminates a lot of burden on the newly born generation (or unborn generations), who are going to inherit this shit and absolutely fucking hate us.
But the problem is when the constraint we have to face is just be slightly less bad than the next nearest country, where is the incentive to be good?
The problem is, the ratio was 91 in 2010 (EU was about 80 then, but that's a "risk premium" priced in). Now, it is 106 (EU still around 80).
Sorry, but please explain the ratios to which you refer in the last sentence above.
Reserve currency: hard to imagine what could replace ours. Our underlying economy is being rearranged because of the virus, but so is everyone else's. We don't seem at the moment to present any rational default risk. What else matters?
Debt to GDP ratio.
There’s no strong competitor now, since all countries are in deep shit, but its going to further calls for a market basket comprised of currency from multiple countries.
And if people stop looking at us as a world leader, it further erodes our position.
It’s not immediate, but we’re doing nothing to suggest we will be good international stewards...
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Debt reduction should be a priority,
You know the deficit was going to be 1 Trillion this year BEFORE Covid19 ?
funny how no-one has mention debt or deficit for 3 years .. hmmm wonder WHY?
White House now requiring face mask in office .. along with daily testing and contract tracing .. but the rest of US is suppose to open up with none of these things really in place or required.
November can't get here soon enough.
Absolutely idiotic. A number of people have been warning about it for at least a decade.
Just because it’s not in your echo chamber doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Just because it’s not in your echo chamber doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
hahaha really who has been warning about debt and deficit ? .. the same people who were railing again the deficit and debt during Obama administration have been deadly silent for the last 3 years ..They pasted the #GOPTaxScam which blew up the deficit before COVID19 .
. when all is said and done -- the DEBT will go up by 8 trillion during Trump administration .
now they are starting to talk about deficit and debt because it looks like Democrats will be back in power after November ..
I am so tired of Debt Peacocks . just go away .
Here you go; this should provide you lots of reading.
https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00593
And yes, there are plenty of earlier examples.
Again, if you're too ignorant to step outside your world bubble and understand the fact that people ARE speaking on these topics, yet you simply don't search them out, that's on you.
Blows my mind.
Maybe he should pay a living wage.
Some people are absolutely earning more on unemployment (even with the requirement of "searching" for work), and will choose to stay off. The big problem? There is going to be a large surplus of workers to choose from when people start to restart.
And when that happens, people (unless they have unique skills) may find themselves in the back of the queue, in terms of acquiring jobs (or may have burned up goodwill).
I do think it will become a daily rallying cry again once the Oval Office is occupied by a different party.
I don't think the argument was that economists or nonpartisans weren't thinking or talking about it.
Debt reduction is a necessary idea. But, for some reason, because the Tea Party wanted it (tax cuts and small government are not the only way to achieve it), I'm a debt peacock?
Plus, he/she is a fucking moron anyways.
With that being the case, the ability of the U.S., as the world's reserve currency, to pass off its unfunded liabilities to other countries in the form of debt is going to be diminished.
And we are literally Greece right now in terms of unfunded liabilities as a fraction of GDP. That's not going away, and it's going to be a big issue in some years. We need to get a handle on this.
Unless people just don't care and are modern monetary theorists.
deficit - Obama reduced deficit 75% during his administration Trump has increased deficit 700% since Obama administration
debt after being handed the Great Recession. the Debt went up 9 trillion in 8 years under Obama after being handed a strong economy - the Debt will go up 7 to 8 trillion in 4 YEARS under Trump .
but I do apologize you are a not Defiict Peacock you are
A ery Serious Person — those who inveigh against the evils of debt not because they’ve done a careful analysis but because they imagine that it makes them sound earnest and tough-minded.
For example, my wife's company furloughed a lot of people but also stipulated somehow that they need to return to work when they are recalled.
I was under the impression they cant say no, and still collect unemployment. Not my area of expertise, but I thought the employer can contest it - is that just the initial claim?
I'm also surprised in the example above that an employer can offer work to former employees that were laid off and the unemployed person can simply decline and keep collecting unemployment.
It doesn't seem like the system is meant to work that way.
deficit - Obama reduced deficit 75% during his administration Trump has increased deficit 700% since Obama administration
debt after being handed the Great Recession. the Debt went up 9 trillion in 8 years under Obama after being handed a strong economy - the Debt will go up 7 to 8 trillion in 4 YEARS under Trump .
but I do apologize you are a not Defiict Peacock you are
A ery Serious Person — those who inveigh against the evils of debt not because they’ve done a careful analysis but because they imagine that it makes them sound earnest and tough-minded.
No, you didn't. You commented about my "debt reduction" point to talk about deficits. Two different topics.
Let the adults speak; just listen.
For example, my wife's company furloughed a lot of people but also stipulated somehow that they need to return to work when they are recalled.
I was under the impression they cant say no, and still collect unemployment. Not my area of expertise, but I thought the employer can contest it - is that just the initial claim?
I'm also surprised in the example above that an employer can offer work to former employees that were laid off and the unemployed person can simply decline and keep collecting unemployment.
It doesn't seem like the system is meant to work that way.
It depends on rules set state-by-state, but in general, you don't necessarily have to take a job just to take a job for continued unemployment benefits. However, if the state decides that the job was suitable for you (in a review), you can lose benefits.
For example, my wife's company furloughed a lot of people but also stipulated somehow that they need to return to work when they are recalled.
I was under the impression they cant say no, and still collect unemployment. Not my area of expertise, but I thought the employer can contest it - is that just the initial claim?
I'm also surprised in the example above that an employer can offer work to former employees that were laid off and the unemployed person can simply decline and keep collecting unemployment.
It doesn't seem like the system is meant to work that way.
The rules vary by state. I have to take two weeks furlough. I took my first week in April, filed for unemployment, and received payment. My next furlough week will be later this month. In SC, I said I was temporarily laid off due to COVID and I was approved.
Now I also am confused about how people can live off of unemployment and who would turn down a job. I'm getting $345 per week, but if i was unemployed too long, I'd only be able to collect $6,500 before the benefits would be revoked.
I think we have little choice but to run massive deficits to fund the safety net during this crisis and stimulate the economy to prevent deflation.
I believe that only using monetary policy in its current form to prevent deflation will only worsen inequality which will put us in a worse position down the road. I think this shows with the stock market still doing ok despite so many unemployed.
I remember sitting here 12 years ago talking about the Great Recession. Something else will occur again in the near future and it seems that everyone in charge squandered the opportunity to fix fundamental flaws and just kicked the fan down the road for 10 years. Smart move would be to use this to fix some flaws to prepare to pay the piper down the road with increased taxes and growth among other things. It’s probably too late and we don’t have what it takes to do what needs to be done
I think we have little choice but to run massive deficits to fund the safety net during this crisis and stimulate the economy to prevent deflation.
I believe that only using monetary policy in its current form to prevent deflation will only worsen inequality which will put us in a worse position down the road. I think this shows with the stock market still doing ok despite so many unemployed.
I remember sitting here 12 years ago talking about the Great Recession. Something else will occur again in the near future and it seems that everyone in charge squandered the opportunity to fix fundamental flaws and just kicked the fan down the road for 10 years. Smart move would be to use this to fix some flaws to prepare to pay the piper down the road with increased taxes and growth among other things. It’s probably too late and we don’t have what it takes to do what needs to be done
Hi Matt,
Been well, just surviving with 2 small kids and a healthcare provider having to decontaminate. Hope you are doing well as well.
No, I don't see any deflationary signs as of yet. Don't see any inflationary signs either. But it's very hard to tease those out right now, as central banks around the world are essentially pegging their currencies right now, which artificially limits what could happen there.
And I wholeheartedly agree that deficit spending is going to be the new normal, at least during the COVID crisis. What I think needs to happen is to focus on eliminating deficit spending during economic expansions, or massive rethinking of the shape of the social welfare system (maybe UBI?).
But, as you rightly pointed out, we had a "booming" economy and did nothing to cure structural flaws (we had tax cuts, which heightened the deficit), and have instead just sat with our collective thumbs in our asses.
At the very least, I expect significant reshoring of some critical industries, which will help us in the long-run.
I just hope that the new generation of political leaders (or people just starting to vote) is taking note of all the issues we are seeing right now, and how solutions are vital.
From Business Insider (also, this article is all over the place, BI seems like a tabloid at this point).
link - ( New Window )
businesses - ( New Window )
Debt reduction is a necessary idea. But, for some reason, because the Tea Party wanted it (tax cuts and small government are not the only way to achieve it), I'm a debt peacock?
Plus, he/she is a fucking moron anyways.
I agree that we need to focus on the debt.
My issue isn't that it was an extreme wing. It seemed that the national debt was the biggest issue from 2010-2014.
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and others at the forefront of the party bemoaned US spending more than anything else. They aren't at the fringes of the party. The entire party and their cheerleader media outlets parroted those same talking points.
That the Tea Party extremists also mounted a "revolution" about it just made it a bigger cause celebre (though I maintain their fervor aligned very close with concerns about Obama's... "American-ness")
I just find it convenient that as the debt and deficit have both exploded since the last inauguration and those same party members and outlets haven't expressed seemingly an iota of concern.
But like I said, I do expect it to become a priority again once a new party sits in the Oval.
I
Quote:
Paul, that may be true, but when we start focusing on what the extreme wings of the party wants, then we lose sight of the goals. I mean, simply because a few people want a Green New Deal, does that mean we can't talk environmental concerns on a more reasonable level?
Debt reduction is a necessary idea. But, for some reason, because the Tea Party wanted it (tax cuts and small government are not the only way to achieve it), I'm a debt peacock?
Plus, he/she is a fucking moron anyways.
I agree that we need to focus on the debt.
My issue isn't that it was an extreme wing. It seemed that the national debt was the biggest issue from 2010-2014.
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and others at the forefront of the party bemoaned US spending more than anything else. They aren't at the fringes of the party. The entire party and their cheerleader media outlets parroted those same talking points.
That the Tea Party extremists also mounted a "revolution" about it just made it a bigger cause celebre (though I maintain their fervor aligned very close with concerns about Obama's... "American-ness")
I just find it convenient that as the debt and deficit have both exploded since the last inauguration and those same party members and outlets haven't expressed seemingly an iota of concern.
But like I said, I do expect it to become a priority again once a new party sits in the Oval.
I
If there was any aptitude in the government right now, the time is ripe for meaningful healthcare and social welfare reform.
And both of those could address debts and deficits.
Then again, you are right about what’s going to potentially happen in 2020; back t throwing as much shit at the wall as possible.
Reads like there is quite a bit of chaos among the group charged with addressing this.
Interestingly, that doesn't seem related to the CDC guidelines. Was the efficacy of those guidelines addressed somewhere in another article between them?
Down here in Texas, there's a lot of confusion and contradiction in how business should operate.
A lot of business owners are really looking for guidance.
That's definitely a guitar thread, not a COVID thread, but yeah, it's obvious what the rationale is.
Nobody was gonna talk about covid! It was about good shit to try and learn when stuck in!
But anyway, I suppose this is the only place to post it. Need recs plz
Quote:
Paul, that may be true, but when we start focusing on what the extreme wings of the party wants, then we lose sight of the goals. I mean, simply because a few people want a Green New Deal, does that mean we can't talk environmental concerns on a more reasonable level?
Debt reduction is a necessary idea. But, for some reason, because the Tea Party wanted it (tax cuts and small government are not the only way to achieve it), I'm a debt peacock?
Plus, he/she is a fucking moron anyways.
I agree that we need to focus on the debt.
My issue isn't that it was an extreme wing. It seemed that the national debt was the biggest issue from 2010-2014.
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and others at the forefront of the party bemoaned US spending more than anything else. They aren't at the fringes of the party. The entire party and their cheerleader media outlets parroted those same talking points.
That the Tea Party extremists also mounted a "revolution" about it just made it a bigger cause celebre (though I maintain their fervor aligned very close with concerns about Obama's... "American-ness")
I just find it convenient that as the debt and deficit have both exploded since the last inauguration and those same party members and outlets haven't expressed seemingly an iota of concern.
But like I said, I do expect it to become a priority again once a new party sits in the Oval.
I've got a feeling we'll have to wait a while to find out.
However, who is going to replace our dollar right now? No One can, especially NOT CHINA.
I think we will see a move of manufacturing back to the United States as well as more high tech. Assuming CV19 really dies down with the warmer weather and updated evidence of treatments that work (I'm not a fan of the vaccine talk....) we may see shifts in our culture towards healthier lifestyles.
But hey, I'm just another handle with an opinion. Amen and have yourselves a great, safe, healthy day everyone.
Quote:
those people clamoring for CDC guidelines (after trashing Redfield on here repeatedly) maybe this is why you can't get your report.
Reads like there is quite a bit of chaos among the group charged with addressing this.
Interestingly, that doesn't seem related to the CDC guidelines. Was the efficacy of those guidelines addressed somewhere in another article between them?
Down here in Texas, there's a lot of confusion and contradiction in how business should operate.
A lot of business owners are really looking for guidance.
Just trying to read between the lines, it seems like the Federal Government really wants states to make their own decisions about what opening means and how to roll back those guidelines to different parts of their states in a meaningful way.
My guess is the federal guidelines the CDC crafted were too restrictive and a one-size fits all approach that would lead to no one ever satisfying them to ever open (statewide).
I mean it's sort of a paradox, people say the Federal government didn't act soon enough at a federal level, and then when the president says he can open the states/country when he wants, how he wants it was a massive rebuke of "no you can't, we have a 10th amendment for a reason", and now people are saying "why isn't the federal government telling us what to do"
so much contradiction, some out of convenience of a narrative, but also a lot out of chaos. I suspect though it's similar for all countries similar to the US.
Russia, at one point people said "how did Russia escape unscathed" now is the country with the 2nd or 3rd most cases. Still low fatality count, but no one believes any countries are counting fatalities the same way, making that pretty meaningless.
anyway, just my opinion.
Quote:
Paul, that may be true, but when we start focusing on what the extreme wings of the party wants, then we lose sight of the goals. I mean, simply because a few people want a Green New Deal, does that mean we can't talk environmental concerns on a more reasonable level?
Debt reduction is a necessary idea. But, for some reason, because the Tea Party wanted it (tax cuts and small government are not the only way to achieve it), I'm a debt peacock?
Plus, he/she is a fucking moron anyways.
I agree that we need to focus on the debt.
My issue isn't that it was an extreme wing. It seemed that the national debt was the biggest issue from 2010-2014.
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and others at the forefront of the party bemoaned US spending more than anything else. They aren't at the fringes of the party. The entire party and their cheerleader media outlets parroted those same talking points.
That the Tea Party extremists also mounted a "revolution" about it just made it a bigger cause celebre (though I maintain their fervor aligned very close with concerns about Obama's... "American-ness")
I just find it convenient that as the debt and deficit have both exploded since the last inauguration and those same party members and outlets haven't expressed seemingly an iota of concern.
But like I said, I do expect it to become a priority again once a new party sits in the Oval.
I
Something recent on debt and deficit: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55018 (See the internally linked full paper at 7.) I can't handle the math, but it might be useful for anyone who can to tell us whether what is said is accurate and meaningful. Oh, and as to "once a new party sits in the Ovel," that's just not happening in 2020.
Apparently anything remotely related to covid now must appear here or risk being deleted.
Yes, one can fairly assign blame for modern America’s debt woes across the spectrum, clearly.
You can also reproach the safeties for some of the Giants’ misery in recent years. A serious individual however, with some sense of proportionality, would be focusing on coaching & the offensive line.
Though some long-term trends required attention circa the tech bubble, on 1/20/2001 America’s money bank was in a relatively strong position, squandered by disastrously venal decisions whose purveyors and their kind continue to felate the oligarchy. Now accompanied by an unbearable hypocrisy & fiscal phoniness that reliably ducks then re-emerges based on who is presently holding the veto pen. Something the always on point Paul highlights at 5:47.
Quote:
In comment 14900735 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
those people clamoring for CDC guidelines (after trashing Redfield on here repeatedly) maybe this is why you can't get your report.
Reads like there is quite a bit of chaos among the group charged with addressing this.
Interestingly, that doesn't seem related to the CDC guidelines. Was the efficacy of those guidelines addressed somewhere in another article between them?
Down here in Texas, there's a lot of confusion and contradiction in how business should operate.
A lot of business owners are really looking for guidance.
Just trying to read between the lines, it seems like the Federal Government really wants states to make their own decisions about what opening means and how to roll back those guidelines to different parts of their states in a meaningful way.
My guess is the federal guidelines the CDC crafted were too restrictive and a one-size fits all approach that would lead to no one ever satisfying them to ever open (statewide).
I mean it's sort of a paradox, people say the Federal government didn't act soon enough at a federal level, and then when the president says he can open the states/country when he wants, how he wants it was a massive rebuke of "no you can't, we have a 10th amendment for a reason", and now people are saying "why isn't the federal government telling us what to do"
so much contradiction, some out of convenience of a narrative, but also a lot out of chaos. I suspect though it's similar for all countries similar to the US.
Russia, at one point people said "how did Russia escape unscathed" now is the country with the 2nd or 3rd most cases. Still low fatality count, but no one believes any countries are counting fatalities the same way, making that pretty meaningless.
anyway, just my opinion.
No doubt states want to make their own decisions, but asking for assitance and help from the feds when/where needed is to be expected.
The message delivered from those in charge is huge, and IMO, sets the tone. Everything hasn't been done perfectly, but when your cool, calm, and collect people get that vibe.
I'm not sure we're always getting the right vibe.
It appears that the facility did in fact ask staff to join the lines making the picture worse than it was.
How Many People Does It Take to Make Fake News?
More details from the health facility CBS blames for bogus video.
Cherry Health came under fire this week after a Project Veritas hidden camera exposé purported that video of lines for Cherry’s COVID-19 test site was staged with employees to make the site look busier than it was. The report segments filmed in Grand Rapids aired on “CBS This Morning” May 1.
In a statement released Thursday evening, Cherry Health CEO Tasha Blackmon admitted that mistakes were made.
“After conducting an internal investigation, we learned that a few staff were encouraged to pull their cars up in the testing line to provide a visual backdrop showing how busy the testing site can get,” Blackmon said in the written statement. ...
From a local news article:
Three major fabricated stories this week in the main stream media. Meet the press, the Pence PPE video, and this. All faked/edited to support a narrative. Tim Russert must be rolling over in his grave.
And the "funny" thing is they were all faked "in the same direction".
The media is not doing themselves any favors. At some point more people will wonder if we're catching all of the fake stories and more people who aren't on the fringe will stop trusting them if they haven't already.
WSJ Article Link - Behind a Paywall - ( New Window )
Problem was, there were diners there who took their own photos that refuted the claim. The news was using an angle from a distance. I had a couple of neighbors that were eating there last night that were livid when they saw the news story.
It is stupid shit like that where the ridiculous moniker of "fake news" takes hold and people start latching onto it.
For example, my wife's company furloughed a lot of people but also stipulated somehow that they need to return to work when they are recalled.
I was under the impression they cant say no, and still collect unemployment. Not my area of expertise, but I thought the employer can contest it - is that just the initial claim?
I'm also surprised in the example above that an employer can offer work to former employees that were laid off and the unemployed person can simply decline and keep collecting unemployment.
It doesn't seem like the system is meant to work that way.
In NY, small business owners including my brother in law have lost employees who have chosen to take higher unemployment income than what they were earning in their jobs. Despite being offered, in writing, their jobs back - they are still able to collect unemployment, which in some cases can exceed $1,000 per week.
Separate but related - one women, a town accountant or administrator, quit her job back in January... provided written notice that she was leaving to take a babysitting gig... and a month ago filed for unemployment saying she'd been let go by her town. When the unemployment office called to confirm, the town showed them the written resignation, noted it had been back in January well before Covid... and the unemployment office told them too bad, the town was on the hook for her benefits.
My guess is the state's unemployment office is simply too overwhelmed to investigate anything so while in theory one could be on the hook if there was an investigation, no one or at least NY, doesnt have the resources to investigate anything.
So while intentions on both sides of the aisle i think were well placed in trying to soften the blow for legit unemployed people when the stimulus package was released 6 weeks or whatever ago.. in reality its created massive unintended consequences and a lot of theft and fraud. At least in NY. Is what it is.
Problem was, there were diners there who took their own photos that refuted the claim. The news was using an angle from a distance. I had a couple of neighbors that were eating there last night that were livid when they saw the news story.
It is stupid shit like that where the ridiculous moniker of "fake news" takes hold and people start latching onto it.
Could it be when your firends were there, it just wan't that crowded? And when the news was there it actually was?
I'm not saying your friends are wrong, but sometimes there's an answer.
Out of curiosity, what angle did they show?
The term stuck because it resinates. People felt it long before the term or the current players came along.
The same Project Veritas that has been sued and fined for deceptive practices? The same Project Veritas run by James O'Keefe who has a criminal record related to his deceptive practices? The same James O'Keefe who had to publicly apologize and pay for his defamatory actions? The same Project Veritas who have produced a litany of deceptively edited videos, attempted false sting operations, and who can't raise money in certain states due to their practices? The same Project Veritas that put a scheme together to try and get news outlets like the Washington Post to run fake news stories?
Quote:
was a similar thing that happened in our town last evening. The local news was covering restaurants reopening and they went to one place that has a lot of outdoor seating and a patio and they showed a view that made it look like tables were crammed together and people on top of each other.
Problem was, there were diners there who took their own photos that refuted the claim. The news was using an angle from a distance. I had a couple of neighbors that were eating there last night that were livid when they saw the news story.
It is stupid shit like that where the ridiculous moniker of "fake news" takes hold and people start latching onto it.
Could it be when your firends were there, it just wan't that crowded? And when the news was there it actually was?
I'm not saying your friends are wrong, but sometimes there's an answer.
Out of curiosity, what angle did they show?
The story wasn't focused on the restaurants reopening - although that was the premise, it ended up being the narrative that people were crowded in. For reference sake, this was the photo taken by our neighbors at the time the news was there:
you can see the spacing of a table to the right (and it is empty), yet the view the news showed, from pretty far back was a crowded restaurant where they actually said "Social distancing doesn't look like it is in effect"They posted that picture in real time when the news was on site and then went nuts when they saw the story repeated at 11PM.
I think there are a lot of criticisms of how things have been handled re the virus, but being overly generous to the general population while trying to keep the economy afloat is not one of them, even if there were some obvious ways to avoid detection for those inclined to bend rules. I guarantee you there are some business owners who "laid off" their employees so they could collect UI, but incentivized them to continue working too. It sucks and you would rather it not happen but there's some % of leakage in everything, but especially massive emergency legislation that has to get written in about 1-2 weeks.
jmo but that type of emergency response from the Fed Gov to support the states existing logistical infrastructures is what we needed more of in other areas, not less. If only they could have printed signatures on 200M tests & N95 masks too.
https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily - ( New Window )
Actually, Harvard's Global Health Institute said we should be doing more than 900,000 tests per day. Better, but still a long way to go.
Not sure why, but NJ posted 113,486 new tests yesterday (>100,000 more than their previous daily high). Assuming that's a one-off event and they didn't see a 10x surge in their testing capacity, the true testing capacity is closer to 300k than 400k per day.
The same Project Veritas that has been sued and fined for deceptive practices? The same Project Veritas run by James O'Keefe who has a criminal record related to his deceptive practices? The same James O'Keefe who had to publicly apologize and pay for his defamatory actions? The same Project Veritas who have produced a litany of deceptively edited videos, attempted false sting operations, and who can't raise money in certain states due to their practices? The same Project Veritas that put a scheme together to try and get news outlets like the Washington Post to run fake news stories?
Cue the "but I don't make my political views part of my posts" response at some point this morning.
Anyone who can cite Project Veritas content with a straight face should have their internet access revoked for a minimum of 48 hours.
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In comment 14900859 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
was a similar thing that happened in our town last evening. The local news was covering restaurants reopening and they went to one place that has a lot of outdoor seating and a patio and they showed a view that made it look like tables were crammed together and people on top of each other.
Problem was, there were diners there who took their own photos that refuted the claim. The news was using an angle from a distance. I had a couple of neighbors that were eating there last night that were livid when they saw the news story.
It is stupid shit like that where the ridiculous moniker of "fake news" takes hold and people start latching onto it.
Could it be when your firends were there, it just wan't that crowded? And when the news was there it actually was?
I'm not saying your friends are wrong, but sometimes there's an answer.
Out of curiosity, what angle did they show?
The story wasn't focused on the restaurants reopening - although that was the premise, it ended up being the narrative that people were crowded in. For reference sake, this was the photo taken by our neighbors at the time the news was there:
you can see the spacing of a table to the right (and it is empty), yet the view the news showed, from pretty far back was a crowded restaurant where they actually said "Social distancing doesn't look like it is in effect"They posted that picture in real time when the news was on site and then went nuts when they saw the story repeated at 11PM.
Is that Hobo's?
I wonder if the flies were social distancing?
(Whenever we used to go there we'd get overrun by flies so we stopped going.)
The same Project Veritas that has been sued and fined for deceptive practices? The same Project Veritas run by James O'Keefe who has a criminal record related to his deceptive practices? The same James O'Keefe who had to publicly apologize and pay for his defamatory actions? The same Project Veritas who have produced a litany of deceptively edited videos, attempted false sting operations, and who can't raise money in certain states due to their practices? The same Project Veritas that put a scheme together to try and get news outlets like the Washington Post to run fake news stories?
That's what you took from the WSJ link, the local news story CBS admission they staged a testing site and the Cherry Health admission they had their employees fake to be patients seeking tests to make the line seem longer is that I was promoting Project Veritas.
LOL. And you wonder why this country is divided. Even when faced with truth, some people refuse to see it.
Ft. Mill is interesting in that some restaurants are reopening with the new rules and others are still waiting. The Improper Pig is going to continue to only offer takeout for the time being.
The best part about Hobo's is their Happy Hour. We'll go before bowling on Monday's. $3 craft pints.
I just found the storyline that the restaurant was packed as being disingenuous and I just drove past the outside earlier today and the tables are spaced appropriately.
Just trying to read between the lines, it seems like the Federal Government really wants states to make their own decisions about what opening means and how to roll back those guidelines to different parts of their states in a meaningful way.
My guess is the federal guidelines the CDC crafted were too restrictive and a one-size fits all approach that would lead to no one ever satisfying them to ever open (statewide).
I mean it's sort of a paradox, people say the Federal government didn't act soon enough at a federal level, and then when the president says he can open the states/country when he wants, how he wants it was a massive rebuke of "no you can't, we have a 10th amendment for a reason", and now people are saying "why isn't the federal government telling us what to do"
Most of the business owners and folks who have to make a decision on opening I know have a pretty simple take -- they want guidance. With the not so subtle distinction between guidance and demands.
Personally I don't think there is anything complicated about the CDC and White House task force producing guidelines and then states implementing them as they see fit.
It's not a matter of the states blindly doing whatever they want without advice vs. the executive branch unilaterally making decisions.
It's the damn Centers for Disease Control -- isn't this literally what they are here for? To advise on how to control disease?
Quote:
Just trying to read between the lines, it seems like the Federal Government really wants states to make their own decisions about what opening means and how to roll back those guidelines to different parts of their states in a meaningful way.
My guess is the federal guidelines the CDC crafted were too restrictive and a one-size fits all approach that would lead to no one ever satisfying them to ever open (statewide).
I mean it's sort of a paradox, people say the Federal government didn't act soon enough at a federal level, and then when the president says he can open the states/country when he wants, how he wants it was a massive rebuke of "no you can't, we have a 10th amendment for a reason", and now people are saying "why isn't the federal government telling us what to do"
Most of the business owners and folks who have to make a decision on opening I know have a pretty simple take -- they want guidance. With the not so subtle distinction between guidance and demands.
Personally I don't think there is anything complicated about the CDC and White House task force producing guidelines and then states implementing them as they see fit.
It's not a matter of the states blindly doing whatever they want without advice vs. the executive branch unilaterally making decisions.
It's the damn Centers for Disease Control -- isn't this literally what they are here for? To advise on how to control disease?
From what I have read, organizations that reach out for guidance will get access to the guidelines.
Quote:
did you really just promote Project Veritas while bemoaning the problem of fabricated news stories?
The same Project Veritas that has been sued and fined for deceptive practices? The same Project Veritas run by James O'Keefe who has a criminal record related to his deceptive practices? The same James O'Keefe who had to publicly apologize and pay for his defamatory actions? The same Project Veritas who have produced a litany of deceptively edited videos, attempted false sting operations, and who can't raise money in certain states due to their practices? The same Project Veritas that put a scheme together to try and get news outlets like the Washington Post to run fake news stories?
That's what you took from the WSJ link, the local news story CBS admission they staged a testing site and the Cherry Health admission they had their employees fake to be patients seeking tests to make the line seem longer is that I was promoting Project Veritas.
LOL. And you wonder why this country is divided. Even when faced with truth, some people refuse to see it.
This is not the first time cbs faked a story, should not be a surprise
I couldn't agree more.
But I'm not sure we agree on which side of the BAP the Project Veritas content applies.
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Law is never more supported as fact than on this site (or probably anything political in general).
I couldn't agree more.
But I'm not sure we agree on which side of the BAP the Project Veritas content applies.
So just we're clear, you're talking about the Project Veritas content that was confirmed to be correct by the very same people that Project Veritas made the video about and the Wall Street Journal?
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In comment 14900680 kicker said:
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Paul, that may be true, but when we start focusing on what the extreme wings of the party wants, then we lose sight of the goals. I mean, simply because a few people want a Green New Deal, does that mean we can't talk environmental concerns on a more reasonable level?
Debt reduction is a necessary idea. But, for some reason, because the Tea Party wanted it (tax cuts and small government are not the only way to achieve it), I'm a debt peacock?
Plus, he/she is a fucking moron anyways.
I agree that we need to focus on the debt.
My issue isn't that it was an extreme wing. It seemed that the national debt was the biggest issue from 2010-2014.
Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and others at the forefront of the party bemoaned US spending more than anything else. They aren't at the fringes of the party. The entire party and their cheerleader media outlets parroted those same talking points.
That the Tea Party extremists also mounted a "revolution" about it just made it a bigger cause celebre (though I maintain their fervor aligned very close with concerns about Obama's... "American-ness")
I just find it convenient that as the debt and deficit have both exploded since the last inauguration and those same party members and outlets haven't expressed seemingly an iota of concern.
But like I said, I do expect it to become a priority again once a new party sits in the Oval.
I
Something recent on debt and deficit: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55018 (See the internally linked full paper at 7.) I can't handle the math, but it might be useful for anyone who can to tell us whether what is said is accurate and meaningful. Oh, and as to "once a new party sits in the Ovel," that's just not happening in 2020.
I can't say whether or not the estimates are valid, but they make sense.
If you have higher debt-to-GDP ratios, unless the debt is accumulated via fiscal policies that incentivize consumers to save and businesses to invest in future production (i.e., business expansion), then you're going to start paying higher interest payments on that debt.
If a perceived truth is coupled with a reference to a biased source than people will dismiss the claim altogether. The veracity of the claim no longer matters.
This country isn't divided because they refuse to see truths. They are divided because of the political spectrum they are on. They are divided because both sides show bias when presenting their takes. It is why the Left despises Fox News and the Right despises CNN.
Heck, it doesn't even have to be political. Add conspiratorial leanings in and all of a sudden flat earthers question when they are shown the image of a round planet. A truth as clear as day is questioned by a small minority.
However, who is going to replace our dollar right now? No One can, especially NOT CHINA.
I think we will see a move of manufacturing back to the United States as well as more high tech. Assuming CV19 really dies down with the warmer weather and updated evidence of treatments that work (I'm not a fan of the vaccine talk....) we may see shifts in our culture towards healthier lifestyles.
But hey, I'm just another handle with an opinion. Amen and have yourselves a great, safe, healthy day everyone.
How do you see “a move of manufacturing back to the United States” occurring? Without subsidies and tariffs, why would a company start building say, a mask manufacturing plant in Indiana, when a foreign competitor can spend a fraction on labor costs? In order for much of manufacturing “capitalism” to work in the US going forward, it needs to be heavily socialized (subsidized) and protected (tariffs). At some point, what’s the difference between that and state-owned business? I guess it makes us feel better to think we can free market our way to prosperity and free ourselves from China , but it’s largely a fiction under our current system.
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In comment 14900983 pjcas18 said:
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Law is never more supported as fact than on this site (or probably anything political in general).
I couldn't agree more.
But I'm not sure we agree on which side of the BAP the Project Veritas content applies.
So just we're clear, you're talking about the Project Veritas content that was confirmed to be correct by the very same people that Project Veritas made the video about and the Wall Street Journal?
So because a broken watch is correct twice a day, do you tout it's accuracy in timekeeping?
Project Veritas is a known shit-stirring organization with an obvious political agenda and history of criminal behavior by O'Keefe. Anyone offering them as a credible source in any context either doesn't realize what PV is about, or knows exactly what they're about and simply subscribes to the same agenda.
It's no different than linking to Breitbart (or Wonkette, so we're clear that these outlets exist on both sides) and then claiming to be politically neutral.
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did you really just promote Project Veritas while bemoaning the problem of fabricated news stories?
The same Project Veritas that has been sued and fined for deceptive practices? The same Project Veritas run by James O'Keefe who has a criminal record related to his deceptive practices? The same James O'Keefe who had to publicly apologize and pay for his defamatory actions? The same Project Veritas who have produced a litany of deceptively edited videos, attempted false sting operations, and who can't raise money in certain states due to their practices? The same Project Veritas that put a scheme together to try and get news outlets like the Washington Post to run fake news stories?
That's what you took from the WSJ link, the local news story CBS admission they staged a testing site and the Cherry Health admission they had their employees fake to be patients seeking tests to make the line seem longer is that I was promoting Project Veritas.
LOL. And you wonder why this country is divided. Even when faced with truth, some people refuse to see it.
Just another example of you referring to sources without an ounce of integrity or credibility, and then feigning open-mindedness and being above the fray when people call you on it. This time it's Project Veritas. Last time it was One America News. What's next? Jacob Wohl? Infowars?
Also, you inaccurately summarize and interpret your own news articles. You write: "the local news story CBS admission they staged a testing site"
Show me where CBS staged a testing site? Then show me where CBS admitted that they staged a testing site?
Blackmon would not discuss publicly whether any employees involved were disciplined. She confirmed that neither she nor the CBS News crew was aware of the spur-of-the-moment decision to add staff to the line that was made by a Cherry Health employee.
https://www.woodtv.com/news/grand-rapids/cherry-health-admits-good-faith-mistakes-in-cbs-debacle/?mod=article_inline
"CBS News did not stage anything at the Cherry Health facility. Any suggestion to the contrary is 100% false. These allegations are deeply disturbing. We reached out to Cherry Health to address them immediately. They informed us for the first time that one of their chief officers told at least one staffer to get in the testing line along with real patients. No one from CBS News had any knowledge of this prior to [Tuesday night]. They also said that their actions did not prevent any real patients from being tested. We take the accuracy of our reporting very seriously and we are removing the Cherry Health portion from the piece."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cbs-says-fake-news-wasnt-theirs-11588789238?mod=article_inline
Words have meanings. Nowhere did CBS stage anything-- the health facility exaggerated the size of the lines without the knowledge of CBS. CBS and the health facility both acknowledged as such.
And, yet, in the same breath that you refer to reporting by Project Veritas without any commentary, you actively misrepresent what CBS did and what they admitted.
But go on, tell me more about what people do when "faced with the truth."
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In comment 14900989 Gatorade Dunk said:
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In comment 14900983 pjcas18 said:
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Law is never more supported as fact than on this site (or probably anything political in general).
I couldn't agree more.
But I'm not sure we agree on which side of the BAP the Project Veritas content applies.
So just we're clear, you're talking about the Project Veritas content that was confirmed to be correct by the very same people that Project Veritas made the video about and the Wall Street Journal?
So because a broken watch is correct twice a day, do you tout it's accuracy in timekeeping?
Project Veritas is a known shit-stirring organization with an obvious political agenda and history of criminal behavior by O'Keefe. Anyone offering them as a credible source in any context either doesn't realize what PV is about, or knows exactly what they're about and simply subscribes to the same agenda.
It's no different than linking to Breitbart (or Wonkette, so we're clear that these outlets exist on both sides) and then claiming to be politically neutral.
Well Breitbart doesn't claim to be politically neutral.. They admit their bias.
Do you feel that CNN, MSNBC, CBS have obvious political agendas? Do you feel they are politically neutral?
How many incorrect stories or set up videos have these organizations made over the past 4 years which shows Democrats in a negative light? Can you link to any of those?
In this case they were right and it's supported by multiple sources. And for the record I did not see the initial Project Veritas report, I only even found out about it because of the WSJ link.
If Project Veritas says the sky is blue, it doesn't mean you have to say it's not just because Project Veritas are purveyors of provocative spin, agenda based editing and shady journalism.
In fact, they sound a little like MSM these days, but whatever, Project Veritas reputation is well deserved, but saying their name isn't the equivalent of saying "bomb on a plane".
I expect intellectually honest people to be able to draw that distinction.
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In comment 14900883 PaulBlakeTSU said:
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did you really just promote Project Veritas while bemoaning the problem of fabricated news stories?
The same Project Veritas that has been sued and fined for deceptive practices? The same Project Veritas run by James O'Keefe who has a criminal record related to his deceptive practices? The same James O'Keefe who had to publicly apologize and pay for his defamatory actions? The same Project Veritas who have produced a litany of deceptively edited videos, attempted false sting operations, and who can't raise money in certain states due to their practices? The same Project Veritas that put a scheme together to try and get news outlets like the Washington Post to run fake news stories?
That's what you took from the WSJ link, the local news story CBS admission they staged a testing site and the Cherry Health admission they had their employees fake to be patients seeking tests to make the line seem longer is that I was promoting Project Veritas.
LOL. And you wonder why this country is divided. Even when faced with truth, some people refuse to see it.
Just another example of you referring to sources without an ounce of integrity or credibility, and then feigning open-mindedness and being above the fray when people call you on it. This time it's Project Veritas. Last time it was One America News. What's next? Jacob Wohl? Infowars?
Also, you inaccurately summarize and interpret your own news articles. You write: "the local news story CBS admission they staged a testing site"
Show me where CBS staged a testing site? Then show me where CBS admitted that they staged a testing site?
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There was real testing going on while CBS News was filming and staffers were mixed in with real patients, Blackmon told News 8. Because several patients opted not to be shown, the employee who got staff to get in line feared the clinic wouldn’t look as though it was getting traffic. Blackmon stressed that none of the employees who got in the line were actually tested and said no testing supplies were wasted.
Blackmon would not discuss publicly whether any employees involved were disciplined. She confirmed that neither she nor the CBS News crew was aware of the spur-of-the-moment decision to add staff to the line that was made by a Cherry Health employee.
https://www.woodtv.com/news/grand-rapids/cherry-health-admits-good-faith-mistakes-in-cbs-debacle/?mod=article_inline
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When contacted by this column, CBS News provided the following statement:
"CBS News did not stage anything at the Cherry Health facility. Any suggestion to the contrary is 100% false. These allegations are deeply disturbing. We reached out to Cherry Health to address them immediately. They informed us for the first time that one of their chief officers told at least one staffer to get in the testing line along with real patients. No one from CBS News had any knowledge of this prior to [Tuesday night]. They also said that their actions did not prevent any real patients from being tested. We take the accuracy of our reporting very seriously and we are removing the Cherry Health portion from the piece."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cbs-says-fake-news-wasnt-theirs-11588789238?mod=article_inline
Words have meanings. Nowhere did CBS stage anything-- the health facility exaggerated the size of the lines without the knowledge of CBS. CBS and the health facility both acknowledged as such.
And, yet, in the same breath that you refer to reporting by Project Veritas without any commentary, you actively misrepresent what CBS did and what they admitted.
But go on, tell me more about what people do when "faced with the truth."
What gives you this much confidence that CBS is telling the truth, especially when they've been proven guilty of doing things like this in the past? A month ago they aired footage of an overcrowded hospital in Italy which they said was in NYC. They had to retract and apologize
But that's the point. 100 people see the original news story, 10 see the retraction and apology.
In comment 14901023 pjcas18 said:
In this case they were right and it's supported by multiple sources. And for the record I did not see the initial Project Veritas report, I only even found out about it because of the WSJ link.
If Project Veritas says the sky is blue, it doesn't mean you have to say it's not just because Project Veritas are purveyors of provocative spin, agenda based editing and shady journalism.
In fact, they sound a little like MSM these days, but whatever, Project Veritas reputation is well deserved, but saying their name isn't the equivalent of saying "bomb on a plane".
I expect intellectually honest people to be able to draw that distinction.
In comment 14901023 pjcas18 said:
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Protect Veritas, I linked to WSJ who said "Project Veritas was right". In this case.
In this case they were right and it's supported by multiple sources. And for the record I did not see the initial Project Veritas report, I only even found out about it because of the WSJ link.
If Project Veritas says the sky is blue, it doesn't mean you have to say it's not just because Project Veritas are purveyors of provocative spin, agenda based editing and shady journalism.
In fact, they sound a little like MSM these days, but whatever, Project Veritas reputation is well deserved, but saying their name isn't the equivalent of saying "bomb on a plane".
I expect intellectually honest people to be able to draw that distinction.
Do you refute something from the ***OP-ED*** as untrue?
If not, then what the fuck is your point? Nothing. Your point is nothing other than you don't want Project Veritas to be right about this. To use a phrase that I am sure you will appreciate. "Facts don't care about your feelings"
In this case they were right and it's supported by multiple sources. And for the record I did not see the initial Project Veritas report, I only even found out about it because of the WSJ link.
If Project Veritas says the sky is blue, it doesn't mean you have to say it's not just because Project Veritas are purveyors of provocative spin, agenda based editing and shady journalism.
In fact, they sound a little like MSM these days, but whatever, Project Veritas reputation is well deserved, but saying their name isn't the equivalent of saying "bomb on a plane".
I expect intellectually honest people to be able to draw that distinction.
You said CBS staged a testing site. You then said they admitted they staged a testing site.
Where? Where did they stage it? Where did they admit that they staged it? They filmed a real testing site, with real patients, but bad actors at the testing site added in their own employees to paint a certain picture in the filming. When CBS found out about it, they pulled the portion of the story.
Project Veritas intentionally creates deceptive videos to push an agenda. The only time it apologizes is when required by a settlement order. It doesn't clarify its piece, or investigate how they got things wrong. Inaccuracy is a feature, not a bug.
They literally concocted a fake story about Roy Moore just to bring to the Washington Post to try and goad them into running the story just to then claim that the Washington Post was fake news. Upon researching the story and finding that it was a bullshit allegation, they didn't run the story. And what did James O'Keefe do when he was caught doing this? Apologize? Issue a correction? No, he went on to accuse the Washington Post of bias.
To say Project Veritas is like the Mainstream Media-- which is apparently a monolith-- is not only a false equivalence, but is intentionally reckless and meant to muddy the waters of discourse.
And you quesetioning other perople's intellectual honesty is as laughable as you mentioning Project Veritas and Tim Russert in the same sentence.
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1kvJpXAYEXZJE - ( New Window )
Kyle, either you're being purposefully obtuse or your obvious bias is blinding you
It's possible for op-ed's to provide verifiable facts
Just because you don't like the content doesn't mean it's not based in fact
So in answer to my post to you. Nothing. You found nothing wrong with the WSJ ***OP-ED***. Correct?
You got a hair across your ass because I said article instead of ***OP-ED***. Not because anything in the WSJ link was wrong.
I have that right, don't I?
LOL.
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Protect Veritas, I linked to WSJ who said "Project Veritas was right". In this case.
In this case they were right and it's supported by multiple sources. And for the record I did not see the initial Project Veritas report, I only even found out about it because of the WSJ link.
If Project Veritas says the sky is blue, it doesn't mean you have to say it's not just because Project Veritas are purveyors of provocative spin, agenda based editing and shady journalism.
In fact, they sound a little like MSM these days, but whatever, Project Veritas reputation is well deserved, but saying their name isn't the equivalent of saying "bomb on a plane".
I expect intellectually honest people to be able to draw that distinction.
You said CBS staged a testing site. You then said they admitted they staged a testing site.
Where? Where did they stage it? Where did they admit that they staged it? They filmed a real testing site, with real patients, but bad actors at the testing site added in their own employees to paint a certain picture in the filming. When CBS found out about it, they pulled the portion of the story.
Project Veritas intentionally creates deceptive videos to push an agenda. The only time it apologizes is when required by a settlement order. It doesn't clarify its piece, or investigate how they got things wrong. Inaccuracy is a feature, not a bug.
They literally concocted a fake story about Roy Moore just to bring to the Washington Post to try and goad them into running the story just to then claim that the Washington Post was fake news. Upon researching the story and finding that it was a bullshit allegation, they didn't run the story. And what did James O'Keefe do when he was caught doing this? Apologize? Issue a correction? No, he went on to accuse the Washington Post of bias.
To say Project Veritas is like the Mainstream Media-- which is apparently a monolith-- is not only a false equivalence, but is intentionally reckless and meant to muddy the waters of discourse.
And you quesetioning other perople's intellectual honesty is as laughable as you mentioning Project Veritas and Tim Russert in the same sentence.
Paul, would you call ABC News showing video of a 2017 gun range in Kentucky and labeling it "Slaughter in Syria" as being "intentionally creating deceptive videos to push an agenda"?
I'm curious.
That's the same standard IMO most reasonable people would hold to any media source.
But it seems I have overstated their role.
My apologies.
Fauci not following the WH narrative. I know someone who ain’t gonna be happy.
That's the same standard IMO most reasonable people would hold to any media source.
But it seems I have overstated their role.
My apologies.
Anybody that believes CBS's "we got caught" denial and pushing of the blame to the hospital at face value just because they are CBS is a moron.
They just got caught doing the same thing a month ago
Why do they deserve a pass?
Thanks for posting
Doubt many do.
letting only 2 people a group, each person has their own cart, can not take the pin out and everh group is seperated by 16 minutes..
8 people an hour opposed to 30 normaly..
We played in 2 and a half hours anddidnt see another 2some for much of the round..
Shocking CBS had a story that they mistated facts they retracted and apologized
but this of course proves the entire media that full of professional Journalist , fact checkers and lawyers to make sure their facts are vetted ARE WRONG
but Breibart and Fox News doesn't lie at all --They just tell me the other side does
Shocking CBS had a story that they mistated facts they retracted and apologized
but this of course proves the entire media that full of professional Journalist , fact checkers and lawyers to make sure their facts are vetted ARE WRONG
but Breibart and Fox News doesn't lie at all --They just tell me the other side does
Of course it is slanted, every media station is slanted, no mayter what side you favor it is slanted..
Adding it all up, I’ll be very surprised if there is NFL football before a vaccine is available.
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In comment 14901023 pjcas18 said:
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Protect Veritas, I linked to WSJ who said "Project Veritas was right". In this case.
In this case they were right and it's supported by multiple sources. And for the record I did not see the initial Project Veritas report, I only even found out about it because of the WSJ link.
If Project Veritas says the sky is blue, it doesn't mean you have to say it's not just because Project Veritas are purveyors of provocative spin, agenda based editing and shady journalism.
In fact, they sound a little like MSM these days, but whatever, Project Veritas reputation is well deserved, but saying their name isn't the equivalent of saying "bomb on a plane".
I expect intellectually honest people to be able to draw that distinction.
You said CBS staged a testing site. You then said they admitted they staged a testing site.
Where? Where did they stage it? Where did they admit that they staged it? They filmed a real testing site, with real patients, but bad actors at the testing site added in their own employees to paint a certain picture in the filming. When CBS found out about it, they pulled the portion of the story.
Project Veritas intentionally creates deceptive videos to push an agenda. The only time it apologizes is when required by a settlement order. It doesn't clarify its piece, or investigate how they got things wrong. Inaccuracy is a feature, not a bug.
They literally concocted a fake story about Roy Moore just to bring to the Washington Post to try and goad them into running the story just to then claim that the Washington Post was fake news. Upon researching the story and finding that it was a bullshit allegation, they didn't run the story. And what did James O'Keefe do when he was caught doing this? Apologize? Issue a correction? No, he went on to accuse the Washington Post of bias.
To say Project Veritas is like the Mainstream Media-- which is apparently a monolith-- is not only a false equivalence, but is intentionally reckless and meant to muddy the waters of discourse.
And you quesetioning other perople's intellectual honesty is as laughable as you mentioning Project Veritas and Tim Russert in the same sentence.
Paul, would you call ABC News showing video of a 2017 gun range in Kentucky and labeling it "Slaughter in Syria" as being "intentionally creating deceptive videos to push an agenda"?
I'm curious.
Giants in 07. I can't state definitively how that footage was used. They claimed it was from an outside source as they packaged the footage. Did someone along the way manipulate the original footage to make it blurrier and label it as footage from Syria? Was it a lazy shortcut by someone in the editing room to be able to give a visual to the report about the Turks slaughtering the Kurds? I don't know.
They apologized for it. They were doing a report on Turks slaughtering the Kurds and used a visual for it that was actually from something completely different.
Mistakes like that happen. And maybe it wasn't a mistake. Maybe ABC wanted their story about war in Syria to resonate and felt they needed video evidence. If it was done intentionally for that reason, then it's ethically wrong and they should be criticized for that.
It's like using a better video of a bad storm in the middle of a different storm. It's inaccurate, it was either a haphazard mistake or an intentional attempt to bolster a story with better visuals.
But I won't say that they had a nefarious agenda with that story. There wasn't anything graphic in that footage to tear at heartstrings or have a singular resonant moment.
The Kurds were in fact being slaughtered in Syria.
Now, if you were to tell me that ABC took footage of a slaughter in Syria as part of a news story about some made up massacre in Kentucky-- then it would be something that should have everyone up in arms.
If they then used that footage of a gun range in Kentucky as evidence of the Bowling Greene Kentucky terrorist massacre, that would be somethign.
Adding it all up, I’ll be very surprised if there is NFL football before a vaccine is available.
I would think that is what the Reserve/Did Not Report list is for. The team retains the rights, but does not have to pay the player. In a formal sense, it would be considered a de facto "holdout" regardless if the reason is considered legitimate in the court of public opinion.
Adding it all up, I’ll be very surprised if there is NFL football before a vaccine is available.
there is always going to be risk even with a vaccine, what happens when the virus mutates? that vaccine becomes less effective look at the flu shot..
a proper way to treat this is the only way to minimize risk..
Adding it all up, I’ll be very surprised if there is NFL football before a vaccine is available.
I’m guessing the NFLPA Will use Covid as a bargaining chip But will come to an overall agreement with the owners. My guess is that the players want to play and get paid.
Once that’s done any individual refusal to play would be the same as a hold out
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... a refusal to play because of covid risk? Say, for example, Saquon says nope, I’m not playing, too risky. Will he still get paid? I’d think the NFLPA will be all over this ... what about the players whose family members are at special risk (like say, Nate Solder or Matt Stafford)? ... I wonder if there are standard contract clauses that address this?
Adding it all up, I’ll be very surprised if there is NFL football before a vaccine is available.
I would think that is what the Reserve/Did Not Report list is for. The team retains the rights, but does not have to pay the player. In a formal sense, it would be considered a de facto "holdout" regardless if the reason is considered legitimate in the court of public opinion.
If a few stars, say a Mahomes, a Rodgers, a Saquon decline to play, I’d think the NFLPA would have a lot of leverage and the owners would have a lot of litigation risk.
Are there season-ticket holder’s who want to keep their rights but have no interest in attending this year at all?
Are there season-ticket holder’s who want to keep their rights but have no interest in attending this year at all?
Astonishing that that was a censored topic...
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In comment 14901093 Jim from Katonah said:
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... a refusal to play because of covid risk? Say, for example, Saquon says nope, I’m not playing, too risky. Will he still get paid? I’d think the NFLPA will be all over this ... what about the players whose family members are at special risk (like say, Nate Solder or Matt Stafford)? ... I wonder if there are standard contract clauses that address this?
Adding it all up, I’ll be very surprised if there is NFL football before a vaccine is available.
I would think that is what the Reserve/Did Not Report list is for. The team retains the rights, but does not have to pay the player. In a formal sense, it would be considered a de facto "holdout" regardless if the reason is considered legitimate in the court of public opinion.
If a few stars, say a Mahomes, a Rodgers, a Saquon decline to play, I’d think the NFLPA would have a lot of leverage and the owners would have a lot of litigation risk.
If they get those tests that detect the virus 3 days before someone becomes contagious and test people twice per week, then they shouldn't have any issues.
The question becomes - can they get access to enough of those tests?
Also - I could seem them having a special reserve list for anyone that tests positive for COVID.
Guessing they only have one covid thread but they should make that clear. There are lots of facets of this situation that are hard to discuss on one mega thread, particularly with the in-depth sidebars that already take place.
As a whole I think most players want to play but at the same token I'm guessing the very wealthy ones will also want extra measures in place for their safety especially since they can afford to make it an issue (and they wouldn't be wrong).
Basically the same thing as the CBA. The top guys are able to speak up because they are already wealthy and the bottom rung players need the paycheck and will usually comply.
I think it depends on the player. A guy like Matt Stafford, whose wife is in fragile health, is gonna rely on testing to keep his family safe? Maybe he will.
The scale up in pay for the 17th game For example helps the lower paid guys more than the stars. No one cared that Rodgers didn't think it was fair.
Dying forms of media such as TV news under the network model with programming at certain times, or 24 hour TV news is going the way of the DoDo bird.
Print Media already has one foot in the grave at best.
In their death throes these old dying forms of media must get more extreme and appeal more to their target audience who are looking for affirmation as opposed to facts. This is done to maximize ratings and views.
Internet steaming technology allows for new forms of media, more independent content creators, but this brings the risk of vetting these actors for integrity and the risk of tech company censorship of views the deem wrong or are deemed dangerous by their monetary masters.
Real journalism barely exists now and will be gone soon. This is not good.
The scale up in pay for the 17th game For example helps the lower paid guys more than the stars. No one cared that Rodgers didn't think it was fair.
Some compromises were made for sure, but in the grand scheme of things the bottom tier players are still pretty "expendable" as far as the NFL is concerned.
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In comment 14901097 Diver_Down said:
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In comment 14901093 Jim from Katonah said:
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... a refusal to play because of covid risk? Say, for example, Saquon says nope, I’m not playing, too risky. Will he still get paid? I’d think the NFLPA will be all over this ... what about the players whose family members are at special risk (like say, Nate Solder or Matt Stafford)? ... I wonder if there are standard contract clauses that address this?
Adding it all up, I’ll be very surprised if there is NFL football before a vaccine is available.
I would think that is what the Reserve/Did Not Report list is for. The team retains the rights, but does not have to pay the player. In a formal sense, it would be considered a de facto "holdout" regardless if the reason is considered legitimate in the court of public opinion.
If a few stars, say a Mahomes, a Rodgers, a Saquon decline to play, I’d think the NFLPA would have a lot of leverage and the owners would have a lot of litigation risk.
If they get those tests that detect the virus 3 days before someone becomes contagious and test people twice per week, then they shouldn't have any issues.
The question becomes - can they get access to enough of those tests?
Also - I could seem them having a special reserve list for anyone that tests positive for COVID.
There are just so many variables (you’re gonna hold a KC v Pats game if Mahomes tests positive on a Wednesday?), and looking at how the NFLPA has chipped away at the off-season etc, gotta think they are gonna do everything to protect their players. The big question for me is ... are their salaries tied to actual games (or will the owners be indemnified and able to pay them anyway).
Shocking CBS had a story that they mistated facts they retracted and apologized
but this of course proves the entire media that full of professional Journalist , fact checkers and lawyers to make sure their facts are vetted ARE WRONG
but Breibart and Fox News doesn't lie at all --They just tell me the other side does
Who said they don't lie at all? All of the media lies.
But again, Fox and Breitbart don't call themselves unbiased. Their bias is up front and well known. They are right wing news organizations.
CNN claims it is completely unbiased. "The most trusted name in news"
I know Fox News is a right wing news source. But you carry on like CNN, MSNBC, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News are all bastions of honesty and fair reporting.
You just don't care about the bias when it's on your side
They estimate lockdown deaths will eventually surpass virus deaths. link - ( New Window )
Really excellent link. Lockdown deaths point -- sort of a collateral damage concept -- not to me as interesting as the early and static model weaknesses idea. Do we get it yet?
Quote:
Really want to sit out? I don’t. I think they want to play.
I think it depends on the player. A guy like Matt Stafford, whose wife is in fragile health, is gonna rely on testing to keep his family safe? Maybe he will.
Hi wife is fragile from everything right now, naye solder's son is fragile to anything..
People who are high risk have to live their life like this on the regular, with covid it is heightened even more..
I dont think the risk will ever be gone, people need to realize this, even with a vaccine the risk will still be there..
the only proper way to minimize risk is to find a treatment..
"Fair and Balanced"
Quote:
The plebes got what they wanted at the expense of and at the protest of the elite.
The scale up in pay for the 17th game For example helps the lower paid guys more than the stars. No one cared that Rodgers didn't think it was fair.
Some compromises were made for sure, but in the grand scheme of things the bottom tier players are still pretty "expendable" as far as the NFL is concerned.
Sure, but their nflpa votes count the same as the stars. The owners know this and use it to their advantage.
According to New York Magazine, citing network executives, the decision to abandon the slogan was made last August, shortly after Roger Ailes, the late former chairman and CEO of the cable news network, resigned last July amid sexual harassment allegations. The network will now use its other tagline: “Most Watched. Most Trusted.”
Fortune - ( New Window )
Quote:
You may want to check your sources there, chief.
"Fair and Balanced"
That's called a tagline. Like how "the most trusted name in news" is a tagline.
People on the right know that Fox News is a right wing source. People on the left do not think that CNN, ABC, NBC are biased at all.
They all have the same ratings on Media Bias Report
Don’t watch abc and nbc so can’t comment there.
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In comment 14901126 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
You may want to check your sources there, chief.
"Fair and Balanced"
That's called a tagline. Like how "the most trusted name in news" is a tagline.
People on the right know that Fox News is a right wing source. People on the left do not think that CNN, ABC, NBC are biased at all.
They all have the same ratings on Media Bias Report
At 1:52, you literally stated that Fox does not call themselves unbiased.
Which, based on their tagline, is demonstrably false.
You can play again, but I'm not sure you have the horsepower...
I mean, do your brain cells ever connect?
Quote:
In comment 14901108 ron mexico said:
Quote:
Really want to sit out? I don’t. I think they want to play.
I think it depends on the player. A guy like Matt Stafford, whose wife is in fragile health, is gonna rely on testing to keep his family safe? Maybe he will.
Hi wife is fragile from everything right now, naye solder's son is fragile to anything..
People who are high risk have to live their life like this on the regular, with covid it is heightened even more..
I dont think the risk will ever be gone, people need to realize this, even with a vaccine the risk will still be there..
the only proper way to minimize risk is to find a treatment..
The billion dollar questions are, Will the owners be indemnified for a loss of games, and will NFL players have a legal right to be paid, on the basis that they do not have a safe work environment, that poses a risk to them and their families. Non-football risk is not part of the NFLPA equation like it is with essential workers.
At one point this may have been COVID related, but now it's just an extreme annoyance.
Quote:
In comment 14901129 kicker said:
Quote:
In comment 14901126 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
You may want to check your sources there, chief.
"Fair and Balanced"
That's called a tagline. Like how "the most trusted name in news" is a tagline.
People on the right know that Fox News is a right wing source. People on the left do not think that CNN, ABC, NBC are biased at all.
They all have the same ratings on Media Bias Report
At 1:52, you literally stated that Fox does not call themselves unbiased.
Which, based on their tagline, is demonstrably false.
You can play again, but I'm not sure you have the horsepower...
Lol I love all the cute one liners at the end of your posts.
You know damn well what I mean. And you using marketing slogans to try and prove your point shows that you know what I mean.
My last post on the topic. The media are liars - all of them. I don't even watch fox news or any TV news media for that matter, but this fantasy world where Fox News is State TV and CNN is honest reporting trying to give Americans information with no slant whatsoever is downright laughable
*insert kicker one liner here*
Quote:
In comment 14901116 Jim from Katonah said:
Quote:
In comment 14901108 ron mexico said:
Quote:
Really want to sit out? I don’t. I think they want to play.
I think it depends on the player. A guy like Matt Stafford, whose wife is in fragile health, is gonna rely on testing to keep his family safe? Maybe he will.
Hi wife is fragile from everything right now, naye solder's son is fragile to anything..
People who are high risk have to live their life like this on the regular, with covid it is heightened even more..
I dont think the risk will ever be gone, people need to realize this, even with a vaccine the risk will still be there..
the only proper way to minimize risk is to find a treatment..
The billion dollar questions are, Will the owners be indemnified for a loss of games, and will NFL players have a legal right to be paid, on the basis that they do not have a safe work environment, that poses a risk to them and their families. Non-football risk is not part of the NFLPA equation like it is with essential workers.
If a player doesnt play he will most likely not be paid..
The problem with all of these leagues will be even if they play, no fans accounts for a lot of the revenue, some of these teams will have trouble staying afloat and paying full salaries
- Can you differentiate reporting vs commentary?
- Are you open to believing outcomes that oppose what you had preferred?
- Do you consume information from more sources that make you uncomfortable?
- Can you believe a failure of one organization doesn't delegitimize the industry?
- Can you believe a failure of one report/reporter doesn't delegitimize the organization?
I find media consumption a fascinating hobby, as having been my old profession. Just some food for thought.
Quote:
In comment 14901135 Giants in 07 said:
Quote:
In comment 14901129 kicker said:
Quote:
In comment 14901126 Chris in Philly said:
Quote:
You may want to check your sources there, chief.
"Fair and Balanced"
That's called a tagline. Like how "the most trusted name in news" is a tagline.
People on the right know that Fox News is a right wing source. People on the left do not think that CNN, ABC, NBC are biased at all.
They all have the same ratings on Media Bias Report
At 1:52, you literally stated that Fox does not call themselves unbiased.
Which, based on their tagline, is demonstrably false.
You can play again, but I'm not sure you have the horsepower...
Lol I love all the cute one liners at the end of your posts.
You know damn well what I mean. And you using marketing slogans to try and prove your point shows that you know what I mean.
My last post on the topic. The media are liars - all of them. I don't even watch fox news or any TV news media for that matter, but this fantasy world where Fox News is State TV and CNN is honest reporting trying to give Americans information with no slant whatsoever is downright laughable
*insert kicker one liner here*
What is downright laughable is your inability to understand that Fox News is doing the the very thing you are accusing CNN of.
You can't say they are both taglines and then say only CNN is claiming to be completely unbiased because of their tagline. It is pure idiocy.
James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
Gov Newsom’s criteria to reopen counties in California:
- No more than 1 COVID-19 case per 10,000 in the past 14 days.
- No COVID-19 death in the past 14 days.
About 95% of CA fails the above.
Just for reference, LA county has ~200+ deaths every 14 days from Flu/pneumonia.
James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
Gov Newsom’s criteria to reopen counties in California:
- No more than 1 COVID-19 case per 10,000 in the past 14 days.
- No COVID-19 death in the past 14 days.
About 95% of CA fails the above.
Just for reference, LA county has ~200+ deaths every 14 days from Flu/pneumonia.
That was the broad mandate, but they are working with bigger counties where there are lots of rural areas with one major metro area that has the bulk of the cases, but rural areas have little to none.
Quote:
James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
Gov Newsom’s criteria to reopen counties in California:
- No more than 1 COVID-19 case per 10,000 in the past 14 days.
- No COVID-19 death in the past 14 days.
About 95% of CA fails the above.
Just for reference, LA county has ~200+ deaths every 14 days from Flu/pneumonia.
That was the broad mandate, but they are working with bigger counties where there are lots of rural areas with one major metro area that has the bulk of the cases, but rural areas have little to none.
Ok thanks i saw that post and wasnt sure if there was more to it..
Shared governance at its finest.
James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
Gov Newsom’s criteria to reopen counties in California:
- No more than 1 COVID-19 case per 10,000 in the past 14 days.
- No COVID-19 death in the past 14 days.
About 95% of CA fails the above.
Just for reference, LA county has ~200+ deaths every 14 days from Flu/pneumonia.
That doesn't seem realistic. As much as I complain about Cuomo's standards, they aren't that insane. Wow.
Rand Paul has a face you just wanna punch
The extension of the general stay at home orders through July doesn't mean there won't be continued progress with opening back up:
Ferrer said that would only change if there was a “dramatic change to the virus and tools at hand.”
“Our hope is that by using the data, we’d be able to slowly lift restrictions over the next three months,” she said. But without widely available therapeutic testing for the coronavirus or rapid at-home tests that would allow people to test themselves daily, it seems unlikely that restrictions would be completely eased.
The state's Stage 3 of reopening involves reopening higher risk workplaces that necessitate close proximity between people. That includes hair salons, nail salons, barbershops, gyms, movie theaters and sporting events without live audiences.
Also for context:
Phase 3: Gov. Newsom teases next stage of reopening California businesses is closer than we thought - ( New Window )
https://covid19.ca.gov/roadmap/ - ( New Window )
yup. We've obviously been lucky for whatever reason (probably weather) but they've also done a pretty good job communicating.
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Yeah, without context, the "restrictions" seem onerous, but they really haven't been. The Governor is allowing a lot of regional variation in this.
yup. We've obviously been lucky for whatever reason (probably weather) but they've also done a pretty good job communicating.
Didn't realize you are also in California, but a lot of my doctor friends on the East Coast have commended Newsome for a lot of the measures they have taken, the transparency with which they have made decisions, and the communication.
There have inevitably been miscues, but Newsome has been willing to adapt.
Quote:
before his test results came back.“As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all,” Paul said, arguing that the impact of coronavirus outside of New England has been “benign.”
Rand Paul has a face you just wanna punch
Just ask his neighbor.
Didn't realize you are also in California, but a lot of my doctor friends on the East Coast have commended Newsome for a lot of the measures they have taken, the transparency with which they have made decisions, and the communication.
There have inevitably been miscues, but Newsome has been willing to adapt.
Yea I'm in southern cal now - nobody is going to get through this batting 1.000. South Korea is literally ankle bracelet'ing everyone and they still had their mini nightclub outbreak. The best we can hope for is honest transparent communication that explains why the decisions being made are the right ones so we can all make informed decisions in our own lives.
Even the evolving guidance on facemasks, which was another thing Newsome happened to be 1 of the first to recommend I think, I understand why the original guidance was what it was, why it confused people, and why they (rightly) evolved that guidance as they better understood transmission patterns. Admitting mistakes and adapting is good not bad.
Quote:
Didn't realize you are also in California, but a lot of my doctor friends on the East Coast have commended Newsome for a lot of the measures they have taken, the transparency with which they have made decisions, and the communication.
There have inevitably been miscues, but Newsome has been willing to adapt.
Yea I'm in southern cal now - nobody is going to get through this batting 1.000. South Korea is literally ankle bracelet'ing everyone and they still had their mini nightclub outbreak. The best we can hope for is honest transparent communication that explains why the decisions being made are the right ones so we can all make informed decisions in our own lives.
Even the evolving guidance on facemasks, which was another thing Newsome happened to be 1 of the first to recommend I think, I understand why the original guidance was what it was, why it confused people, and why they (rightly) evolved that guidance as they better understood transmission patterns. Admitting mistakes and adapting is good not bad.
Oh cool. I'm just over the Grapevine.
San Fransisco only has 35 covid deaths which is amazing and reflects on their local governments early and aggressive action
We now have enough #SARSCoV2 genomic data from different states to make some broad conclusions about how the #COVID19 epidemic has unfolded in the US. 1/14 - ( New Window )
At all levels?
I'll link it, but will post some of the more salient points (IMO), love the pool analogy and I think he nailed US culture spot on.
@KeithNHumphreys
Most of my great public health colleagues are greatly over-estimating the likelihood that the U.S. can mount a national test, trace, and isolate program as have countries like Germany and South Korea. My friends are mistaking a political-cultural challenge for a technical one 1/9
@KeithNHumphreys
·
May 11
In countries with successful testing programs, deference to government authority is higher than in the U.S. Information on where people live and work is often less closely guarded. And acceptance that the state has a monopoly on force is virtually uncontested. 3/9
@KeithNHumphreys
·
May 11
Testing programs depend on all that; they depend on people being so compliant that they will stay home for 14 days because a health worker told them to. Meanwhile, in Detroit last week a grocery store security guard was shot in the head for asking someone to wear a mask. 4/9
@KeithNHumphreys
·
May 11
Of course, some places do broadly share these politics. They will produces patches of reduced infection via test, track, and isolate – a Massachusetts here, a San Francisco or Seattle there. But in a mobile nation, you can’t build a “no peeing” section in the swimming pool. 8/9
@KeithNHumphreys
·
May 11
That’s why America is more or less going to end up with Swedish coronavirus policy, not because we universally agreed to consciously choose it, but because we couldn’t universally agree – and never have – about fundamental issues surrounding politics and health. 9/9
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
college education for Fall 2020 in CA will be all online, with some minor exceptions.
At all levels?
Likely, yes. There is a lot of coordination between the community college, UC, and CSU systems, so it's likely that all will adopt similar proposals.
Quote:
In comment 14901212 kicker said:
Quote:
college education for Fall 2020 in CA will be all online, with some minor exceptions.
At all levels?
Likely, yes. There is a lot of coordination between the community college, UC, and CSU systems, so it's likely that all will adopt similar proposals.
I ask because some schools in MA (and maybe other states in the Northeast) have discussed having freshman face to face but give other grades the virtual option, but they are trending toward fully virtual too - it was just a suggestion - the Freshman probably need more discipline and maybe are viewed as able to regulate better with less on-campus students.
It's particularly relevant to me, since I have two high school seniors and they both committed to schools, but both are also considering de-committing in favor of schools that are making the commitment to have physical classes vs virtual this fall.
Attached is a link to University of South Carolina announcement yesterday with their commitment to physical classes beginning with school reopening mid-August.
It sounds like colleges are getting hammered in terms of acceptances being down, and deposits not being paid, and a growing number of kids taking a gap year or opting for local community or state school options.
It sounds like students overwhelmingly want face to face classes. Need to make sure the faculty are protected but I get it. And parents don't want to pay the same crazy tuition for virtual classes.
link - ( New Window )
@AP
The masks are fakes. They don’t provide adequate protection. And they’re being handed to front-line caregivers. An @AP
investigation tracks counterfeit medical masks from China to U.S. hospitals.
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14901213 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14901212 kicker said:
Quote:
college education for Fall 2020 in CA will be all online, with some minor exceptions.
At all levels?
Likely, yes. There is a lot of coordination between the community college, UC, and CSU systems, so it's likely that all will adopt similar proposals.
I ask because some schools in MA (and maybe other states in the Northeast) have discussed having freshman face to face but give other grades the virtual option, but they are trending toward fully virtual too - it was just a suggestion - the Freshman probably need more discipline and maybe are viewed as able to regulate better with less on-campus students.
It's particularly relevant to me, since I have two high school seniors and they both committed to schools, but both are also considering de-committing in favor of schools that are making the commitment to have physical classes vs virtual this fall.
Attached is a link to University of South Carolina announcement yesterday with their commitment to physical classes beginning with school reopening mid-August.
It sounds like colleges are getting hammered in terms of acceptances being down, and deposits not being paid, and a growing number of kids taking a gap year or opting for local community or state school options.
It sounds like students overwhelmingly want face to face classes. Need to make sure the faculty are protected but I get it. And parents don't want to pay the same crazy tuition for virtual classes. link - ( New Window )
The big issue in California is that faculty are off contract May 22nd. So, they cannot be forced to prepare for fall classes until the week before.
So, this is largely anticipatory of several things:
1. Large resurgence of COVID-19 in the fall that would likely lead to another transition back to fully online.
2. Preparing for fully online, so that the quality of the education is better, especially given how we prepared initially.
3. Issues with large-scale cleaning in classrooms. There are not enough staff for the full decontamination that would be needed at larger institutions.
They began these preparations in March and people laughed.
Seems like a better than likely chance this happens. If not to start then once a resurgence hits in the fall (like you mentioned).
I actually cannot complain. Spending so much time with my kids has been a silver lining in a shitty situation. I like being home with them since I usually travel for work about 50% of the time and my kids are always running around with sports or social activities.
My older ones are seniors in high school and the younger one is 12. So they don't need constant parental guidance anymore either - which makes it easier.
And considering that the older ones are possibly going away to school this fall (they both are determined to find schools that are planning on physical learning) I am enjoying the time with them.
It's driving my wife crazy, lol, but I'm ok with it.
not sure I'll feel the same if this does linger to 2021, but for now I'm making the best of the situation.
That sucks. Well, this all sucks. 2020 sucks.
That sucks. Well, this all sucks. 2020 sucks.
Yeah, they're bummed. Yesterday they got an email from the principal and it said "we have tentatively planned a graduation ceremony for August 9th, but being completely honest I don't think that's going to happen".
but they also have the right outlook (for now).
Quote:
Damn. I feel awful for them. They should be going wild now, living it up, prom...
That sucks. Well, this all sucks. 2020 sucks.
Yeah, they're bummed. Yesterday they got an email from the principal and it said "we have tentatively planned a graduation ceremony for August 9th, but being completely honest I don't think that's going to happen".
but they also have the right outlook (for now).
Local high school here in the Albany, NY area is holding graduation at the Times Union Center so that they can all socially distance. I'm guessing other schools will do something similar.
Quote:
In comment 14901153 XBRONX said:
Quote:
before his test results came back.“As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all,” Paul said, arguing that the impact of coronavirus outside of New England has been “benign.”
Rand Paul has a face you just wanna punch
Just ask his neighbor.
LMAO....I love his crazy neighbor
@Alicia_Smith19
Over 100,000 small businesses have closed forever as America’s pandemic toll escalates
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14901184 KDubbs said:
Quote:
In comment 14901153 XBRONX said:
Quote:
before his test results came back.“As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all,” Paul said, arguing that the impact of coronavirus outside of New England has been “benign.”
Rand Paul has a face you just wanna punch
Just ask his neighbor.
LMAO....I love his crazy neighbor
Why? Are you a big fan of the guy who shot Steve Scalise too? Some of you really take things too far just because you disagree with someone's political views.
Quote:
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
Over 100,000 small businesses have closed forever as America’s pandemic toll escalates
link - ( New Window )
PJ - curious to why its folding?
I've been involved in a semi pro/collegiate summer baseball league for nearly 30 years now, and we are grapling with whether to play or not this summer. But we certainly aren't going to shut down for good.......next summer is a new year and season.
Is it because of player availability, or COVID? Seems there's a ton of history there..........
Quote:
In comment 14900993 Giants in 07 said:
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In comment 14900989 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14900983 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Law is never more supported as fact than on this site (or probably anything political in general).
I couldn't agree more.
But I'm not sure we agree on which side of the BAP the Project Veritas content applies.
So just we're clear, you're talking about the Project Veritas content that was confirmed to be correct by the very same people that Project Veritas made the video about and the Wall Street Journal?
So because a broken watch is correct twice a day, do you tout it's accuracy in timekeeping?
Project Veritas is a known shit-stirring organization with an obvious political agenda and history of criminal behavior by O'Keefe. Anyone offering them as a credible source in any context either doesn't realize what PV is about, or knows exactly what they're about and simply subscribes to the same agenda.
It's no different than linking to Breitbart (or Wonkette, so we're clear that these outlets exist on both sides) and then claiming to be politically neutral.
Well Breitbart doesn't claim to be politically neutral.. They admit their bias.
Do you feel that CNN, MSNBC, CBS have obvious political agendas? Do you feel they are politically neutral?
How many incorrect stories or set up videos have these organizations made over the past 4 years which shows Democrats in a negative light? Can you link to any of those?
You should stick to crying to Tosh and losing your money on cryptocurrency.
The problem with signs warning people not to swim in the deep end of the (gene)pool, is that they only protect those who can read in the first place.
Quote:
In comment 14901197 BMac said:
Quote:
In comment 14901184 KDubbs said:
Quote:
In comment 14901153 XBRONX said:
Quote:
before his test results came back.“As much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all,” Paul said, arguing that the impact of coronavirus outside of New England has been “benign.”
Rand Paul has a face you just wanna punch
Just ask his neighbor.
LMAO....I love his crazy neighbor
Why? Are you a big fan of the guy who shot Steve Scalise too? Some of you really take things too far just because you disagree with someone's political views.
Typical take from a humorless paragon who does nothing but assume based on his own political views. Hypocritus maximus.
Quote:
hockey league I'm in for the past 20 years just folded for good. They've been around 40 years, 100+ teams throughout New England (NESHL - New England Senior Hockey League) and it's just the tip of the iceberg we're seeing I think.
Quote:
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
Over 100,000 small businesses have closed forever as America’s pandemic toll escalates
link - ( New Window )
PJ - curious to why its folding?
I've been involved in a semi pro/collegiate summer baseball league for nearly 30 years now, and we are grapling with whether to play or not this summer. But we certainly aren't going to shut down for good.......next summer is a new year and season.
Is it because of player availability, or COVID? Seems there's a ton of history there..........
They blame COVID, but reality is they have been rumored to be trying to sell for a few years but the price has allegedly been too high.
They also say "many factors". They have to be making money. It's I think $5500 for a team in the winter (24 game schedule) and I forget about summer but maybe $4000 (for 15 games). And I play at a rink with 8 sheets of ice and there are 50+ men's league teams who play out of that rink. So you can do the math.
But here is what their website says:
Thank you,
Paul & Lisa Laubenstein
NESHL, Inc.
PO Box 572
Swampscott, MA 01907
Rinks are still closed and we do not expect a summer season. I'm just hoping my daughters youth hockey team starts on time. One guy on my team is also a ref for youth/high school and he said he expect some high schools to just cancel hockey and several rinks to fold too.
I do think someone could fill the void. There are literally hundreds of teams in the NESHL. Maybe a good opportunity for someone.
I guess some people find different things funny, and a man being assaulted because he "has a punchable face" is not on my list of hilarity.
So, sure, lash out and insult me if you want, but I'm pretty sure you're lashing out because you feel embarrassed and are projecting. I don't mind. Let it flow.
And regardless it doesn't matter to me, you don't owe me an explanation, you only owe it to yourself, your family, your clergy and your maker. After that you don't owe anyone anything. Be yourself.
Don't make this a long drawn out thing making the thread less usable for the people who come here hoping to find solid information or links about this pandemic.
If you adjusted this to only include COVID-19 people without underlying conditions (and include obesity - don't remove that - just remove diabetes, cancer, heart issues, and otherwise compromised immune systems) I imagine this gets adjusted even more drastically.
I'm not really willing to separate out those with compromised immune systems when that number is in the millions. Add in whatever weird mutation its doing now and hitting kids and suffice it to say we still don't really know how this will end up.
Of course, and two things can simultaneously be true.
losing grandparents is hard, being forced into quarantine and/or other regulations when people under 55 by and large are not at significant risk of death is hard too.
I'm guessing you don't have young children because while they understand it, they often live in the moment and process things for the next 5 minutes better than the big picture.
If you adjusted this to only include COVID-19 people without underlying conditions (and include obesity - don't remove that - just remove diabetes, cancer, heart issues, and otherwise compromised immune systems) I imagine this gets adjusted even more drastically.
I wonder what the numbers look like when you remove NYC and surrounding areas.
Shrug.
Shrug.
Im sorry to hear about all of that, hang in there.
And I agree, this sucks all around but I can live without many things for a while (or even for good). And while that will certainly effect the income and well being of others, it will hopefully open up new ways of doing things and hopefully jobs to go along with it.
I don't doubt the economic impact of all of this but I do stick to this - this economy was going to get crushed whether we quarantined or not. It was just a matter of when and for how long.
Think ol’ Paul might fire up the BBQ this weekend?
Think ol’ Paul might fire up the BBQ this weekend?
He'll be welcomed back in Moscow soon enough...
Quote:
There you are, 71 years old, about to serve a crushing 6-7 years in prison ... and suddenly you are permanently released from prison to home confinement because of Covid, at your gorgeous Virginia mansion, with spring just around the corner. What a twist of fate.
Think ol’ Paul might fire up the BBQ this weekend?
He'll be welcomed back in Moscow soon enough...
Get the hair re-dyed black? Maybe stick in a putting green in? Upgrade the bbq and outdoor sound system? Maybe get some cornhole going? Break out the good Cabernet?
Holy shit. What a turn of events.
Poppy Harlow
@PoppyHarlowCNN
· 43m
Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said: Almost 40% of households earning less than $40,000 a year as of February lost their jobs in March. Just let that number sit with you for a moment.
Zero covid cases at the facility where Manafort was being held. Hard not to be cynical these days.
Poppy Harlow
@PoppyHarlowCNN
· 43m
Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said: Almost 40% of households earning less than $40,000 a year as of February lost their jobs in March. Just let that number sit with you for a moment.
That is incredible. The economic impact of this is spread so unevenly. My family can work from home, no income interruption -just inconvenience of quarantine. But so many families are facing real devastation. Terrible.
It will come down to how many get their jobs back in August which is why we need to use the next 8-10 weeks to be methodical about how we re-open.
If you adjusted this to only include COVID-19 people without underlying conditions (and include obesity - don't remove that - just remove diabetes, cancer, heart issues, and otherwise compromised immune systems) I imagine this gets adjusted even more drastically.
So if you are under 64 there is a .01% death rate, 111 out of every 1M. I don't want to be insensitive, but this is very small and likely in line with many other causes of death. Plus as pointed out above, take out underlying conditions and then what is the number? I am still firmly in the camp of getting things open, and focus on the high risk areas (older people, and people with underlying conditions. Its sort of the Swedish model if you will
It will come down to how many get their jobs back in August which is why we need to use the next 8-10 weeks to be methodical about how we re-open.
It also depends if the jobs they had are capable of bringing everyone back..
I own 2 car washes, one is a full service hand wash, we were allowed to reopen because one of our customers called the town and aaked if we could reopen..
We had to write a letter to the town on how we could open safely and they had to talk to the attoryney general.
We had to open with half our workforce, can not work inside the car, only outside washes. No one can get out of their cars and our inside convenient store has to remain closed, even if we require masks inside, which makes no sense to me..
But if we were not allowed to reopen now, with the way this was going we probably would not have survived because of the extremely mild winter and missing out on pollen seaaon.
It will come down to how many get their jobs back in August which is why we need to use the next 8-10 weeks to be methodical about how we re-open.
Sure, but someone is paying them not to work, that can't last forever.
And I'm not an unemployment expert fortunately, but I do think there is a cap on how much unemployment you can get - maybe due to these circumstances it gets extended, but from what I know it's not designed to be long-term. So if those jobs don't come back, or come back soon, this is tip of the iceberg.
1) the quarantine has proven to met the goals of protecting the healthcare system and bought time to better understand the disease
2) a targeted response, while expensive and most certainly to include a lot of people, is possible with the proper guidelines, support, and coordination
I hope the various leaders on all levels can get their shit together to accelerate that.
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The whole team is looking forward to the ribbon cutting at the new hotel by Putin.
Zero covid cases at the facility where Manafort was being held. Hard not to be cynical these days.
Next question: was anyone else released from that prison? And how prevelant is this across the nation?
1. who is mostly spreading it upstream (asymptomatically in many cases)
2. there is a lot that's still unknown about this virus - they've just in the last few days identified 82 cases of pediatric multi-symptom inflammatory syndrome in NYC. 53 of them also tested positive for coronavirus and there was 1 fatality.
Point is simply before we make decisions that will result in letting this thing go from 2-4% of our overall population to 10/20/30/40/50% we need to be clear eyed about how much we don't know and how much we can't control. It sounds reasonable to think we can just isolate the vulnerable downstream and yet even with daily testing/tracing they haven't been able to keep half of the task force from entering some form of quarantine (all who happen to be in the older categories too).
For those praising the Sweden model I'd encourage reading what Anders Tegnell has said about their results to date (and also remember that they are a country of 10m people).
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shows some perspective about how frustrating this has to be for younger people.
If you adjusted this to only include COVID-19 people without underlying conditions (and include obesity - don't remove that - just remove diabetes, cancer, heart issues, and otherwise compromised immune systems) I imagine this gets adjusted even more drastically.
So if you are under 64 there is a .01% death rate, 111 out of every 1M. I don't want to be insensitive, but this is very small and likely in line with many other causes of death. Plus as pointed out above, take out underlying conditions and then what is the number? I am still firmly in the camp of getting things open, and focus on the high risk areas (older people, and people with underlying conditions. Its sort of the Swedish model if you will
I agree.....need to at least give this businesses a chance to survive. However, people are going to make personal decisions on whether to go out or not - and that's going to be huge for whether they make it or not.
For some its already too late I'm sure.
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but through July those people will actually be making more between state + federal stimulus unemployment benefits. If you qualify for the max you are getting around $1,200 per week in the tri-state area. Even if they are only getting 50% of their state benefits that's still $900 per week and they come out ahead (don't know about healthcare coverage though).
It will come down to how many get their jobs back in August which is why we need to use the next 8-10 weeks to be methodical about how we re-open.
Sure, but someone is paying them not to work, that can't last forever.
And I'm not an unemployment expert fortunately, but I do think there is a cap on how much unemployment you can get - maybe due to these circumstances it gets extended, but from what I know it's not designed to be long-term. So if those jobs don't come back, or come back soon, this is tip of the iceberg.
Right, it lasts until July as of now and then stops (the stimulus portion). My point was that people right now in that $40k or less bracket have a stable income for the next couple of months. The numbers now don't matter as much as what the numbers look like in August when that stimulus is no more.
But it will be in America cause I dont think this country is smart enough to do whats right
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In comment 14901472 XBRONX said:
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The whole team is looking forward to the ribbon cutting at the new hotel by Putin.
Zero covid cases at the facility where Manafort was being held. Hard not to be cynical these days.
Next question: was anyone else released from that prison? And how prevelant is this across the nation?
Barr issued a memo advising that releases are advisable under certain circumstances — and those over 60 like Manafort are in the vulnerable class. More than 1,000 people were released as of late-April, so this isn’t a Flynn-like extraordinary release. I was thinking about it mostly in cinematic terms ... imagine him sitting there grimly in prison, and he gets the word. By the end of today, he’ll be on his back deck, a gorgeous spring night, sipping some wine, thinking ... holy shit.
just did not think they were real ..
mea culpa!!
So yes, while checks on job searches (or checks on turning down qualifying jobs) are likely to be less (and lead to big increases in fraud), there are a number of reasons why it may not happen en masse:
1. Loss of goodwill if "furloughed" and turn down employment from prior employers.
2. Increase in # of unemployed, which means that you are competing against a large pool of qualified workers.
3. Maximum unemployment benefits would be approximately $15,600. That's not a lot.
Anyway, some good news if it keeps up and is nation wide:
@Alicia_Smith19
Some positive news to fill your timeline “Restaurants Are Rebounding -- At Least Those With Carryout”
From the story: “The switch from negative to positive came so fast that it took the CEO of Dallas-based Dickey’s Barbecue Pit by surprise.”
Story on Bloomberg linked below.
More from Alicia:
link - ( New Window )
Math sure is tricky for some.
it's better than the alternative - especially when you factor in that most restaurants can get forgivable loans to cover 8.5 weeks worth of payroll costs + some other qualifying utilities.
The entire point of everything that's been done has been to buy time for businesses so they can withstand this period of lower demand, provide support to workers impacted by the lockdowns while the powers that be come up with a plan to start reopening to safely increase demand as the benefits expire.
notice there haven't been nearly as many stories lately about people not getting their PPP loans approved - I guess near $1T will do that.
Did you read the article?
My guess is no.
The point is the bounce was unexpected, and I guess it's up to a business owner. Would you rather be down 43% or 26%.
I get it math is tricky for some of you.
No idea why every fucking thing has to be contentious for some of you. It's almost like your goal is just to find something negative to say. Go outside, get off the internet. Or share your misery with someone else. It's tedious.
In a number of areas, there were fewer restaurants open initially, and more are starting to open up, which could be the reason for those jumps.
In a number of areas, there were fewer restaurants open initially, and more are starting to open up, which could be the reason for those jumps.
I don't think the article even mentions dine in in detail other than consumer desire, I don't think they have that data yet since in most areas being open for dine in is just restarting, and those restaurants I'm sure will also enjoy an increase over being closed obviously but if they have to operate at fractional capacity not sure how they'll do during that phase without assistance.
but to your other point, delivery, curbside, take out, and to go absolutely.
“All day parts are up dramatically in double digits,” CEO Rob Lynch said in an interview. “We’re seeing more disproportionate growth during the week.” That contrasts with weekends, when the company is missing out on sales related to sporting events and parties....
I think we will see a sizable hit in those metrics that is larger than the decrease in demand (26-percent).
And we won't get that data for a longggggg time.
I think we will see a sizable hit in those metrics that is larger than the decrease in demand (26-percent).
And we won't get that data for a longggggg time.
I agree and it will probably be ugly, but maybe better than worst case for those who survive.
Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
4m
BREAKING: Florida Governor opens state to ANY pro sports team
"What I would tell commissioners of leagues is, if you have a team in an area where they just won't let them operate, we'll find a place for you here in the state of Florida."
Because that state (along with a bunch of others) is FUCKED. And with close to 1 in 6 workers there filing for UI benefits, they are going to get strangled.
Because that state (along with a bunch of others) is FUCKED. And with close to 1 in 6 workers there filing for UI benefits, they are going to get strangled.
How much do you think it would even move the needle though?
I read that MLB (and the NHL and the NBA) are considering "regional" home bases where all the games would be played in that vicinity - as one proposal.
Mostly I have read Vegas (metro area), Arizona and Florida as options.
It's not nothing, but would it be meaningful revenue - enough to accept the risk?
I guess some people find different things funny . . . .
So, sure, lash out and insult me if you want .. . .
Don't make this a long drawn out thing making the thread less usable for the people who come here hoping to find solid information or links about this pandemic.
You'll have to admit, looking back over the thread, that this comes a little late in the game.
NYT National News
@NYTNational
· 2h
Most American universities insist they will find a way to bring students back to campus in the fall. But the head of the nation’s largest four-year public university system said that's not possible. https://nyti.ms/35RqUSm
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humorless before. Nice.
I guess some people find different things funny . . . .
So, sure, lash out and insult me if you want .. . .
Don't make this a long drawn out thing making the thread less usable for the people who come here hoping to find solid information or links about this pandemic.
You'll have to admit, looking back over the thread, that this comes a little late in the game.
Yes, absolutely and I'm as guilty as anyone, but maybe it's in my mind, but I feel like most of my antagonist posts were retaliatory not initiating conflict, maybe that's just my bias. but whatever, let's just move on.
I would suggest people ask themselves if your post is purely to criticize another poster, post some negative trope, make a political jab, be passive aggressive or purely to incite then don't post it. Or do, whatever.
Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
4m
BREAKING: Florida Governor opens state to ANY pro sports team
"What I would tell commissioners of leagues is, if you have a team in an area where they just won't let them operate, we'll find a place for you here in the state of Florida."
Back when the initial Stay at Home orders were implemented, Desantis was mocked as his declaration of essential workers/business was like Oprah on her Christmas Show. You're an essential business... You're an essential business...
But at the time, I suggested that by doing so he sets the precedent in the event that there is a secondary regional spike this fall that requires other states to restrict businesses. With no fan attendance at games, it would be plausible that multiple NFL games could be held at the same stadium on a given day. To extend the theory further, NFL games could be played sans fans at college fields. Worst case scenario if other states are locked down, the NFL is considered an essential business in Florida such that the entire league could be accommodated.
@DKThomp
A Hong Kong study that reviewed 7,324 COVID cases from China found "only one outdoor outbreak."
https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf
(via @MarketUrbanism)
I think we will see a sizable hit in those metrics that is larger than the decrease in demand (26-percent).
And we won't get that data for a longggggg time.
All I can comment on is what I see around me. The restaurants are all very busy with takeout, a constant stream of people. Also people are tipping as if they sat down for a meal, which is good for the employees.
So yes, while checks on job searches (or checks on turning down qualifying jobs) are likely to be less (and lead to big increases in fraud), there are a number of reasons why it may not happen en masse:
1. Loss of goodwill if "furloughed" and turn down employment from prior employers.
2. Increase in # of unemployed, which means that you are competing against a large pool of qualified workers.
3. Maximum unemployment benefits would be approximately $15,600. That's not a lot.
fair enough, but i can tell you its happening quite a bit in NY. Not at the college graduate, white collar or steady employment segments, of course, but unfortunately, most people arent thinking through this situation rationally as you have done above in your post. Especially when you throw in the opportunity to take May-July "off" and have a short-term (~3 month) increase in your take home pay, its not hard to imagine lots of people out there being short-sighted and worrying about August when it gets here... hell, 70% of people making $100K a year live paycheck-to-paycheck (note: a Wells Fargo executive told analysts that in a recent investor meeting, i dont know if its 100% true) which tells you all you need to know about most peoples ability to make rational decisions and plan ahead
how this thread still survives with mindnumbingly zero-value add, inflammatory posts like this on here is beyond me. I'm not watching Fox today, but one could probably cite some examples from CNN too if they cared to.
The media is biased, both ways... news at 11
Ugh...the constant false equivalency and whataboutism is fucking tiresome as hell. We get it, every channel and outlet has its biases, but when someone mentions how some well known idiots in the media have said some dumb shit, the immediate defense shouldn't be, "well, the other side says some dumb shit too!"
Seriously though, I'm surprised that this thread hasn't led to more bannings and just outright deletion of this thread.
Fauci is a national treasure and is among the only links holding together a disastrously rudderless response. And those attacking him are pathetic zeros.
Fauci is a national treasure and is among the only links holding together a disastrously rudderless response. And those attacking him are pathetic zeros. [/quote]
This. 100% This.
Will anyone hold that country accountable for the wreckage they’ve wrought on the world? Can anyone hold China accountable? I don’t even know what can be done, but it seems like some kind of coordinated global response is called for. I suppose we’ve all been fighting so hard to get through this that’s it too soon to talk about responsibility and accountability. But, is anyone else wondering if China will be held accountable for this global devastation?
Fauci is a national treasure and is among the only links holding together a disastrously rudderless response. And those attacking him are pathetic zeros.
Fauci is doing a great job with the public health response. Unfortunately the media is looking for his opinions on economic policy as well for which he has said repeatedly he is completely unqualified. Yet they keep asking.
If media is personally attacking him they are morons... but this is xbronx so somehow I think this is being distorted. That’s what xbronx does.
Regardless why are people quoting partisan media here? Pick a channel I don’t get the value add and why anyone thinks it’s worth it?
I by the way find overseer to be a complete, freeloading, drooling moron.., no one asked but since he threw out his opinions of me I thought I’d return the favor.
I expect those numbers to probably quadruple for fraud, and increase by 2x for the others, suggesting that about 1 in 5 unemployment recipients is receiving too much, should not be eligible, or is committing fraud.
That's certainly very high for a traditional social welfare program (again, where abuse totals about 2-5% of any program historically), but it's a short-time frame, and given the circumstances, is probably going to be worth it.
No. Somebody is just dumb enough to fake being on quarantine and get in a fistfight.
Honestly, why the fuck are posts going down that road tolerated? It is like you can't help yourself.
I expect those numbers to probably quadruple for fraud, and increase by 2x for the others, suggesting that about 1 in 5 unemployment recipients is receiving too much, should not be eligible, or is committing fraud.
That's certainly very high for a traditional social welfare program (again, where abuse totals about 2-5% of any program historically), but it's a short-time frame, and given the circumstances, is probably going to be worth it.
Great stats, and point taken about the short duration (if it’s not extended which it very well might right?). Thanks kicker.
Nice. Good for them.
Some of their friends though (also high school seniors) have filed for unemployment (some did lose their part time jobs due to the pandemic) and somehow they all qualified and are now getting paid over $800 per week. $600 in pandemic unemployment and $200 plus from MA state unemployment. They were maybe making the ~$200 at their jobs.
I find it hard to believe this is the way the system is supposed to work. It just seems wrong. Not because they're high school students (though that's part of it), but because they're dependents. I always viewed unemployment as a last resort funded to help desperate or at least unfortunate families feed themselves and pay their rent or mortgage. Not for high school kids to buy clothes and electronics (not that that's what they're doing but I'm sure eventually when they have $10,000 or more in the bank they'll spend it on something).
Is this just a loophole?
Not sure the extent of it, but not going to lie, my tax dollars going to this pisses me off. People working aren't getting paid this well.
they're not from low income families and I don't think it's fraud, I think it's a legit loophole (or it could be fraud, but I don't know what rule they're breaking if it is fraud)
But the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program extended the federal benefits to youth employees who may not traditionally qualify.
I find it weird that people get outraged when people usually making absolutely nothing are getting more because of some quirk in way payments are giving out during pandemic ..
meanwhile the fed is backing up the truck and dumping billions MY tax money (that will be leveraged to 4 TRILLION ) into the markets so the asset class can stay filfhy rich ..
but go ahead be outraged because some high School kid is getting an extra 600 bucks a week
How the COVID-19 Bailout Gave Wall Street a No-Lose Casino - ( New Window )
If media is personally attacking him they are morons... but this is xbronx so somehow I think this is being distorted. That’s what xbronx does.
Regardless why are people quoting partisan media here? Pick a channel I don’t get the value add and why anyone thinks it’s worth it?
I by the way find overseer to be a complete, freeloading, drooling moron.., no one asked but since he threw out his opinions of me I thought I’d return the favor.
I imagine it’s frustrating that despite your ascendance to the exclusivity of the Manh financial orbit (you’re in finance, right?) - something no doubt made possible by nepotism and/or some :wink wink: “favors” for the geriatric magnates – your frivolous mind is still helplessly mired in the banal fallback of kneejerk false equivalency.
Mildly astute point re: Fauci/economics, so maybe all is not lost for you. Though probably.
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Not sure the extent of it, but not going to lie, my tax dollars going to this pisses me off. People working aren't getting paid this well
I find it weird that people get outraged when people usually making absolutely nothing are getting more because of some quirk in way payments are giving out during pandemic ..
meanwhile the fed is backing up the truck and dumping billions MY tax money (that will be leveraged to 4 TRILLION ) into the markets so the asset class can stay filfhy rich ..
but go ahead be outraged because some high School kid is getting an extra 600 bucks a week
How the COVID-19 Bailout Gave Wall Street a No-Lose Casino - ( New Window )
It all pisses me off. The corporate waste and "free" bailouts and unnecessary (IMO) funding.
Money never seems to find its way to the people who need it most. That bothers me.
People who deserve to get help don't get it. People supporting families that have their hours reduced or are even in some cases still working, putting themselves in harms way aren't getting paid that much for working, but high school kids who didn't make near that are getting those funds.
Not sure why that's a "wow" but not surprised that's your response.
How? It would require a lot more government workers to study these things, delay payments, etc. And it's probably going to be (partially) a judgment call.
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Not sure the extent of it, but not going to lie, my tax dollars going to this pisses me off. People working aren't getting paid this well
I find it weird that people get outraged when people usually making absolutely nothing are getting more because of some quirk in way payments are giving out during pandemic ..
meanwhile the fed is backing up the truck and dumping billions MY tax money (that will be leveraged to 4 TRILLION ) into the markets so the asset class can stay filfhy rich ..
but go ahead be outraged because some high School kid is getting an extra 600 bucks a week
How the COVID-19 Bailout Gave Wall Street a No-Lose Casino - ( New Window )
The Fed is pumping trillions into the markets to keep companies afloat and liquidity available, not to help rich people get richer. If they don’t do that we are north of 50% unpemployment right now.
I will say I’m disgusted the banks took fees on the PPP though. Sometimes 3-5%. That made my skin crawl. Thankfully I can say my company didn’t participate in that.
By the way, thanks overseer for the comparison to manh. Worked with him at Citi (though unfortunately not directly) for many years - I hope he’s enjoying his well deserved retirement. A really bright and interesting man and wish we could get his insights on muni and state finances these days.
There are 21.9 million Americans in that age range. The unemployment rate for that group is 27.4-percent.
That means that if every single one of these people applied for benefits, the total cost of the program would be $12.1 billion. If every teen applied AND received $600 for 13 weeks.
The total cost of the PUA program could be roughly $194 billion (again, assuming same things).
So, if EVERY high school student were committing fraud, the fraud rate would be 6%. As you can expect, a sizable fraction of the youth workforce is not going to be going for these benefits. So, that fraud number declines dramatically.
Wisconsin now without COVID-19 restrictions after state Supreme Court strikes down Gov. Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order - ( New Window )
The top 10% own 81% of stock wealth but yeah the Fed is not helping the rich get richer ..
seriously there are definitely other ways to help companies stay solvent and keep umemployment rate down (it is ONLY `16% ) but it is weird they seems to have chosen the way that enriches the weathy --- imagine that !
I can tolerate it, and I'm not naive enough to think none will happen, but it still pisses me off.
And I don't even think this is fraud (the high school kids), just a loophole that I have to believe is unintended.
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The Fed is pumping trillions into the markets to keep companies afloat and liquidity available, not to help rich people get richer. If they don’t do that we are north of 50% unpemployment right now.
The top 10% own 81% of stock wealth but yeah the Fed is not helping the rich get richer ..
seriously there are definitely other ways to help companies stay solvent and keep umemployment rate down (it is ONLY `16% ) but it is weird they seems to have chosen the way that enriches the weathy --- imagine that !
You don't seem to have a very good grasp of economics and how economies operate. If too many companies don't stay solvent, the entire system crumbles.
silly me I thought businesses survived by having customers .who buy a companies products or services !
didn't know the economy operates solely by propping up the stock market .
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You don't seem to have a very good grasp of economics and how economies operate. If too many companies don't stay solvent, the entire system crumbles.
silly me I thought businesses survived by having customers .who buy a companies products or services !
didn't know the economy operates solely by propping up the stock market .
You should have stopped at "silly me".
If you are going to provide assistance in a time of crisis, it makes financial sense to keep the businesses solvent until it passes. There's much more value in giving $$ to businesses who invest it back into making products than to give it to the public who may or may not spend it.
This is a stop gap measure. It is a hell of a lot more feasible and easy to give it to businesses.
But hey, making it about class warfare was a novel approach. Haven't seen that angle taken before....
And this from a guy who thinks Jerome Powell is a fucking moron.
@thehill
·
3m
Data from that a World Health Organization (WHO) mission, including a map detailing the possible spread of the virus in the Huanan seafood market, has been kept secret by China's government.
....Chinese officials are reportedly blocking efforts by international experts to study the origin of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that investigators and researchers have been assisting Chinese officials as part of a World Health Organization (WHO) mission to search for the origin of COVID-19, only for Chinese officials to go silent and refuse to release updates on the project.
.....
U.S.-based groups such as the EcoHealth Alliance told the Journal that their offers to assist in the investigation of the Huanan market have been rebuffed or ignored, resulting in the possible destruction of evidence.
“It’s really so sensitive now because of the conspiracy theories being put forward in China and the USA. In any case, I suspect it’s simply too late,” EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak told the Journal......
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
The Hill
@thehill
·
3m
Data from that a World Health Organization (WHO) mission, including a map detailing the possible spread of the virus in the Huanan seafood market, has been kept secret by China's government.
Quote:
Chinese officials not cooperating in search for coronavirus origins: report..
....Chinese officials are reportedly blocking efforts by international experts to study the origin of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that investigators and researchers have been assisting Chinese officials as part of a World Health Organization (WHO) mission to search for the origin of COVID-19, only for Chinese officials to go silent and refuse to release updates on the project.
.....
U.S.-based groups such as the EcoHealth Alliance told the Journal that their offers to assist in the investigation of the Huanan market have been rebuffed or ignored, resulting in the possible destruction of evidence.
“It’s really so sensitive now because of the conspiracy theories being put forward in China and the USA. In any case, I suspect it’s simply too late,” EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak told the Journal......
link - ( New Window )
Good idea. If the fastball isn't working, try the slider.
Good idea. If the fastball isn't working, try the slider.
Care to explain the comment? Now the Hill is an untrusted source?
I can't keep up with this.
Quote:
Good idea. If the fastball isn't working, try the slider.
Care to explain the comment? Now the Hill is an untrusted source?
I can't keep up with this.
I thought you were just breaking up a meaningless fight about the Fed, the money, capitalism, investment, and so on. If not, I should have withheld what was meant as praise.
Quote:
Expect more of this to follow. Wisconsin now without COVID-19 restrictions after state Supreme Court strikes down Gov. Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order - ( New Window )
No you shouldn’t expect to see this more. Wisconsin, in one of the grossest sore loser political power grabs in US history, changed all their rules and neutered the incoming governor so that he couldn’t enact the change that the people of the state voted for. This is a very unique situation.
I’m confused. How many deaths under 65 yrs old (working age ... admittedly crudely) does Wisconsin have from
Covid? Let’s start there ,.. honestly I haven’t looked and if you don’t have time I’ll take a look in the morning. Let’s start there before we determine who is playing politics and who is a victIm
Quote:
In comment 14901915 Percy said:
Quote:
Good idea. If the fastball isn't working, try the slider.
Care to explain the comment? Now the Hill is an untrusted source?
I can't keep up with this.
I thought you were just breaking up a meaningless fight about the Fed, the money, capitalism, investment, and so on. If not, I should have withheld what was meant as praise.
I didn't mean to (false praise, lol) I was just sharing an article I saw about coronavirus source.
I feel like Dave from Summer School "Young man, the possession of false identification and of alcohol by a minor are serious crimes. You've just confessed to both of them."
"I didn't mean to"
Quote:
In comment 14901862 Nitro said:
Quote:
Expect more of this to follow. Wisconsin now without COVID-19 restrictions after state Supreme Court strikes down Gov. Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order - ( New Window )
No you shouldn’t expect to see this more. Wisconsin, in one of the grossest sore loser political power grabs in US history, changed all their rules and neutered the incoming governor so that he couldn’t enact the change that the people of the state voted for. This is a very unique situation.
I’m confused. How many deaths under 65 yrs old (working age ... admittedly crudely) does Wisconsin have from
Covid? Let’s start there ,.. honestly I haven’t looked and if you don’t have time I’ll take a look in the morning. Let’s start there before we determine who is playing politics and who is a victIm
. . . Now the Hill is an untrusted source?
I can't keep up with this. . . .
As for the Hill, I have no reason to do more than read it now and then. And I am unaware of assertions that it might be biased or untrustworthy.
Quote:
In comment 14901912 Dave in PA said:
Quote:
In comment 14901862 Nitro said:
Quote:
Expect more of this to follow. Wisconsin now without COVID-19 restrictions after state Supreme Court strikes down Gov. Tony Evers’ stay-at-home order - ( New Window )
No you shouldn’t expect to see this more. Wisconsin, in one of the grossest sore loser political power grabs in US history, changed all their rules and neutered the incoming governor so that he couldn’t enact the change that the people of the state voted for. This is a very unique situation.
I’m confused. How many deaths under 65 yrs old (working age ... admittedly crudely) does Wisconsin have from
Covid? Let’s start there ,.. honestly I haven’t looked and if you don’t have time I’ll take a look in the morning. Let’s start there before we determine who is playing politics and who is a victIm
My point is that the politics were already played, at a level which would leave a normal human being ashamed and embarrassed for life. There is a reason all of this is playing out like it is and it’s due to the actions of the pst admin as they were voted out of office. This is not a commentary on the current governors decision nor the subsequent actions taken by the state SC. I don’t personally care as I’m not a Wisconsin resident.
As for "Levee breaking," that might be painting with too broad a brush. Not inclined to go read everything to see what produced it, but WI has few cases, very few deaths, lots of space, and not so many people. It's not MA, NJ, NY or CA. Nor is SC, for that matter. Not that factors like these should have much of a bearing on a judicial outcome anyway.
Global News on Canadians and China virus. - ( New Window )
@DrMattMcCarthy
NEW: LANCET study reveals 30-fold increase of Kawasaki-like disease in Italian province over past month. Strongest evidence yet linking pediatric inflammatory syndrome to #coronavirus.
Skimming the study it still seems like a very low number of incidents (30 fold increase over a very small base) but certainly not ideal.
With cases plateauing nationally and warm weather hopefully helping to slow transmission we need to hope something rapidly happens on the vaccine front over the next few months. Fauci seemed optimistic in his briefing to congress yesterday, Rick Bright appears tomorrow although that has a high likelihood of devolving into a circus.
An outbreak of severe Kawasaki-like disease at the Italian epicentre of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic - ( New Window )
Beat me to it. Sorry! Getting blind.
the message was initially we need these lock downs and restrictions to flatten the curve and prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.
the initial duration was estimated and extended. Incorrectly or not, many people believe the curve is flattened and the healthcare system capacity preserved.
People, IMO, as a whole, will do what they believe is necessary given the guidance they are provided, but when they lose confidence in that guidance they will become suggestible to alternatives and alternative theories.
I think many people will view these extensions and seeming shift in focus as changing from flatten the curve to we need a cure and those are very different things with no time table.
I think most people who would fall in the "break the levee" category understand the risks and feel like the economic toll - especially when no "end dates" are given is worse than the virus risks.
And if that sentiment snowballs the levee can break.
It seems to be happening in pockets where they have restrictions that don't seem congruous with the virus results so far.
Just my opinion.
the message was initially we need these lock downs and restrictions to flatten the curve and prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.
the initial duration was estimated and extended. Incorrectly or not, many people believe the curve is flattened and the healthcare system capacity preserved.
People, IMO, as a whole, will do what they believe is necessary given the guidance they are provided, but when they lose confidence in that guidance they will become suggestible to alternatives and alternative theories.
I think many people will view these extensions and seeming shift in focus as changing from flatten the curve to we need a cure and those are very different things with no time table.
I think most people who would fall in the "break the levee" category understand the risks and feel like the economic toll - especially when no "end dates" are given is worse than the virus risks.
And if that sentiment snowballs the levee can break.
It seems to be happening in pockets where they have restrictions that don't seem congruous with the virus results so far.
Just my opinion.
+1
except no ..... I am throwing up my hands now that a pandemic response has been successfully politicized by an unnamed side of the Political spectrum and their unnamed Cable News Network..
If I were a betting man .. we are in for months of basically Swedish model .. 1500 -3500 deaths a week with surges in different parts of the country until Fall when cold weather will probably cause an even bigger second outbreak in cases again ..
we are completely screwed as a country
Coronavirus cases increase in Wisconsin - ( New Window )
Leaders just absolutely have to be 1) consistent with the reasoning 2) ensure measures are clear and voluntary for things to actually work.
Independent of the administration that nominated the director, who the director is, and how we got here -- our country literally has a organization to control diseases.
If not for this moment, what is a Center for Disease Control for? Why do taxpayers from every state invest 7B a year in this department if not to advise and assist from a position of leadership during a disease outbreak?
I think most people who would fall in the "break the levee" category understand the risks and feel like the economic toll - especially when no "end dates" are given is worse than the virus risks.
And if that sentiment snowballs the levee can break. . . .
Just my opinion.
Who could disagree with most of this? Except that final idea that the levee -breakers "understand the risks." My question, quite aside from the politically motivated lying and exaggeration out there, which has spoiled the soup, as it were, the available science on the virus to date has left so much unanswered that it's hard to see how anyhone could be said to "understand the risks."
These are, among others,
-- do antibodies produced by a person who has or had the virus confer immunity on that person (if so, how long do they do that, at what density, and do they work for all variants of the thing);
-- what kind and duration of exposure to a presently infected person (who may well be asymptomatic) suffices to enable acquisition of the virus from that infected person;
-- what measures short of wearing full PPE would prevent such an exposed person from becoming infected after such exposure; and
-- how soon after such exposure can the newly infected person also transmit the virus to others?
Understand the risks? How could they? All they can also know is that, at present, on average here, if you're infected, and become a reported case, you have a 6% chance of dying.
Aside from these blatant gross statistical differences, I think a general point about the healthcare models (centralized govt regulated vs. fragmented largely privatized) is clear:the US system is archaic and inefficient.
I mean, one can't even readily get the information about documented recoveries in NJ, yet!!!!
1A) The comparison is a good one, a valid one for several reasons:
The populations of both NJ and Israel are right about 9 million each.
The population density of both are also very similar as are (obviously) their areas.
They both have single major international airports: TLV and EWR respectively
Location / cases / recovered / deaths
Israel / 16,548 / 12,232 / 264
New Jersey / 141,560 / ??? / 9,702
With a nearly identical base population, NJ has had 10x the # of total cases and 35x the number of deaths, and NJ is still in the midst of the pandemic stage and Israel has passed out of it (about 3 weeks ago) and is now cautiously re-opening the country.
(Data from Ha'Aretz in Israel, NJTV in NJ)
My wife, a 1st and 2nd grade teacher has returned to work (only the elementary schools have reopened, middle schools and high schools remain closed.) And the class aizes have been sliced into one third their original sizes: 30 students/ class now are 10. The teachers who normally teach the upper grades have been brought into the elementary schools to facilitate the re-opening of the schools for the young.
The base strategy behind the schools re-opening thusly was 1) limit the contact and spread and 2) free up adults, who were forced to stay home to supervise their youngest children, to return to work.
The teenagers are left to fend for themselves, still under quasi quarantine.
Continued...
The town where I work was rocked with Coronavirus cases, as we have had first hand reports (and many exhausted customers who are nurses or EMTS) about packed medical facilities struggling to cope with the load of Coronavirus cases. Additionally one of my colleagues works at the wine store as his 2nd job - his primary role is director of sanitation in an elderly care facility. He has witnessed dozens of deaths at the facility, and was one reason I began to take note of the warnings about the virus more seriously and make sure I took adequate steps to prevent myself from catching it...
Still, I consider myself "lucky" not to have contracted it; I am without doubt exposed to the virus daily when at work, and only quite recently have seen the change in our store's clientele from largely ignoring the guidelines about masks, gloves and social distancing, to finally acknowledging those guidelines.
I have "thrown people out" of the store who enter without masks, but have always done so as politely as possible and with explanation...
Earlier during the pandemic, about 2 weeks ago, I chided a customer for violating the space of another customer currently at the cashier; the customer cursed me and stormed out of the store. This past Monday a told a 30 something patron he needed to put a mask on or leave the store. He replied he'd left his mask in his car, expecting perhaps I'd let the issue slide. He was one of two customers total in the store, and I immediately informed him that although the store was not crowded and we could easily maintain a healthy social distance - he was endangering me. At my age, and with complicating factors of long term diabetes and hypertension, I was a marked high risk individual. I told him I'd appreciate it very much if he'd respect the law on MY account, and for any other elderly customers who frequent our store and might come in while he's there, potentially spreading the virus around.
I told him of course he's not really at risk due to his age and apparent robust health... But surgeons don't wear surgical masks to protect themselves, they wear them to protect their patients from becoming infected during surgery!
He then quickly left the store. A few minutes later when he returned he was wearing his mask, and was in fact very apologetic, saying "you are right!"
As recently as a week ago, that was NOT the common response to a request that a person Don a mask or leave the store...
The Orthodox Jewish communities, which largely live in close knit neighborhoods both in the NYC met area and in Israel, have been hotbeds of Coronavirus infections and deaths. Partly it's because most of them, especially the Haredim ultra Orthodox, simply don't have TVs or radios or follow any general broadcast news except that news put forth by and within their own community.
So here in NY they continued to pray in Minyans (groups of ten or more) in close quarters long after news that the two largest Haredi communities in Israel - in B'nai Barak in Tel Aviv and another area in Jerusalem - had been shut down and cordoned off by the Israeli Armed forces (IAF) to prevent them from traveling out from their neighborhoods and infecting others...
Then, more recently, I've had several discussions with men entering our store without masks who declare (after I informed them they must wear one or leave) that they have already had the virus, have passed that stage of infection and now have antibodies, so they no longer CAN spread the virus.
I told them that that's bullshit! The current state of knowledge is still far too sketchy to assert that an asymptomatic individual who has already tested positive for the virus CAN'T SPREAD IT.
We don't know that yet with 95% or better confidence. I have had heated arguments with a few people asserting that they can no longer spread it...
Lastly, just today (now yesterday) we received a call from the NY state health department telling us that they've received reports that unmasked customers have been seen in the store. They threatened to close our business if we didn't comply fully with the state mandate.
It's time to change the signs at the entrance from
PLEASE WEAR A MASK WHEN SHOPPING IN THIS STORE
to
YOU MUST WEAR A MASK TO SHOP IN THIS STORE BY STATE LAW
f only the resulting flare ups, hot spots, and inevitable increase in deaths would stay confined to befalling those who wish have a "higher risk tolerance".
We need responsible measures to reopen things. But I'm not sure why it is being politicized. Reopening shouldn't be political - it is a step that has to be taken to move forward, but you are seeing how it is being positioned in the news.
Listen in the coming days to a very telling phrase - "the rush to reopen". And then ask yourself, why is the term "rush" being used and what is the connotation.
States in US have only so much legal power and resources - The whole point of being part of the US is that the Federal Government can organize a national response , use the waste resources and expertise of the Federal Government to attack the threat and coordinate the needs of individual States during the an emergency situation
The NJ response has more to do at the horrible response at the Federal level than the State itself..
This has been the case for a while. People can argue back and forth all day as to what was meant exactly by the mealy-mouthed usage of "hoax" was as it pertains to the democrats discussion of the virus. But the messaging to its audience was plain as day as he looped in the "hoax" with comments about Russia. The message to his fervent and large base was effectively
"all these alarms about the virus, the concerns about the severity, their reasons for even talking about it as a a dangerous threat is bullshit. It's fake news. They are liars, and it is an attempted coup to attack me-- to attack US as patriots. I have done the perfect job handling this. Any criticism is a personal attack."
He has done a remarkable job making every possible social, economic, cultural issue a line in the sand litmus test. You're either with him, or you are out to get him.
And the cable opinion hosts and radio hosts aren't helping.
It shouldn't be politicized. There can be debates as to how to mitigate the risk of the virus-- as to how we should balance acceptable risk to re-opening society. How much concern should we have about these Kawasaki-like reports as it pertains to children. What about the link earlier reporting that only one case in China was transmitted outdoors?
What there shouldn't be are people like Tucker Carlson repeatedly calling Dr. Fauci a buffoon on his show. We shouldn't have people like Rand Paul telling Fauci that he needs to have humility.
States in US have only so much legal power and resources - The whole point of being part of the US is that the Federal Government can organize a national response , use the waste resources and expertise of the Federal Government to attack the threat and coordinate the needs of individual States during the an emergency situation
The NJ response has more to do at the horrible response at the Federal level than the State itself..
How much legal power and resources did the states (NY, NJ and PA) need to do a better job protecting the most vulnerable in nursing and assisted living facilities? Seems like it was more a function of very poor leadership at the state level that continues to this day.
Aside from these blatant gross statistical differences, I think a general point about the healthcare models (centralized govt regulated vs. fragmented largely privatized) is clear:the US system is archaic and inefficient.
I mean, one can't even readily get the information about documented recoveries in NJ, yet!!!!
1A) The comparison is a good one, a valid one for several reasons:
The populations of both NJ and Israel are right about 9 million each.
The population density of both are also very similar as are (obviously) their areas.
They both have single major international airports: TLV and EWR respectively
Location / cases / recovered / deaths
Israel / 16,548 / 12,232 / 264
New Jersey / 141,560 / ??? / 9,702
With a nearly identical base population, NJ has had 10x the # of total cases and 35x the number of deaths, and NJ is still in the midst of the pandemic stage and Israel has passed out of it (about 3 weeks ago) and is now cautiously re-opening the country.
(Data from Ha'Aretz in Israel, NJTV in NJ)
My wife, a 1st and 2nd grade teacher has returned to work (only the elementary schools have reopened, middle schools and high schools remain closed.) And the class aizes have been sliced into one third their original sizes: 30 students/ class now are 10. The teachers who normally teach the upper grades have been brought into the elementary schools to facilitate the re-opening of the schools for the young.
The base strategy behind the schools re-opening thusly was 1) limit the contact and spread and 2) free up adults, who were forced to stay home to supervise their youngest children, to return to work.
The teenagers are left to fend for themselves, still under quasi quarantine.
Continued...
CORONAVIRUS: Why don't antibodies guarantee immunity?
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
. . . Now the Hill is an untrusted source?
I can't keep up with this. . . .
As for the Hill, I have no reason to do more than read it now and then. And I am unaware of assertions that it might be biased or untrustworthy.
IMO, The Hill has no political leanings at all. I've seen positive and negative articles for both sides (so to speak). Its actually one of the better sources of information
Leaders just absolutely have to be 1) consistent with the reasoning 2) ensure measures are clear and voluntary for things to actually work.
Independent of the administration that nominated the director, who the director is, and how we got here -- our country literally has a organization to control diseases.
If not for this moment, what is a Center for Disease Control for? Why do taxpayers from every state invest 7B a year in this department if not to advise and assist from a position of leadership during a disease outbreak?
The more I've read about SK's response the more I realize that a sizable swath just would not have been amenable interventions on the level of what they did on tracking + tracing. And that sort of crosses the divide we have now in the sense that it doesn't matter if those people self-identify as "team save the economy" or "team save lives" because their measures accomplished both.
So where we are right now, we should all be proud/optimistic that thanks to what we've done the past 2 months we have a curve that's bending and a healthcare system that's built up capacity - the goal of safely reopening with our arms around this thing is within reach if leaders can commit to a clear plan that the population buys into. Like PJ said though for a variety of reasons that seems unlikely because since this thing started we haven't gone 24 hours without some mixed message that baits people into grievance.
This has been the case for a while. People can argue back and forth all day as to what was meant exactly by the mealy-mouthed usage of "hoax" was as it pertains to the democrats discussion of the virus. But the messaging to its audience was plain as day as he looped in the "hoax" with comments about Russia. The message to his fervent and large base was effectively
"all these alarms about the virus, the concerns about the severity, their reasons for even talking about it as a a dangerous threat is bullshit. It's fake news. They are liars, and it is an attempted coup to attack me-- to attack US as patriots. I have done the perfect job handling this. Any criticism is a personal attack."
He has done a remarkable job making every possible social, economic, cultural issue a line in the sand litmus test. You're either with him, or you are out to get him.
And the cable opinion hosts and radio hosts aren't helping.
It shouldn't be politicized. There can be debates as to how to mitigate the risk of the virus-- as to how we should balance acceptable risk to re-opening society. How much concern should we have about these Kawasaki-like reports as it pertains to children. What about the link earlier reporting that only one case in China was transmitted outdoors?
What there shouldn't be are people like Tucker Carlson repeatedly calling Dr. Fauci a buffoon on his show. We shouldn't have people like Rand Paul telling Fauci that he needs to have humility.
Your post begins with your issue on how this thing has become completely politicized. You do realize this entire post after the first sentence could not have leaned left any further if you tried and every opinion you have is based off your political leanings?
Experts from Harvard and Johns Hopkins — which have partnered with his foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies, on the effort — have led discussions on best practices for dealing with mental health challenges and tips for managing conflict and reaching consensus with colleagues.
Mayors on the call use a chat box to ask each other questions, make comments or ask for ideas for a particular problem they're facing. That often leads to offline collaboration between cities and running text-message conversations, participants said.
None of those guys (or anyone else) is perfect and of course there are some downright bad eggs in every cross section of the population from billionaires on down but we'd all benefit from not lumping the good eggs in with the bad as much as possible. Any public figure can get picked apart for something - especially if they have complicated financials. It's not a good thing for the rest of us that the reward for the efforts are having to put up with relentless conspiracy campaigns.
Michael Bloomberg's coronavirus pivot - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14901919 Percy said:
Quote:
. . . Now the Hill is an untrusted source?
I can't keep up with this. . . .
As for the Hill, I have no reason to do more than read it now and then. And I am unaware of assertions that it might be biased or untrustworthy.
IMO, The Hill has no political leanings at all. I've seen positive and negative articles for both sides (so to speak). Its actually one of the better sources of information
The Hill is where I go everday for my news to start. I like the presentation layout, and they are equal for both sides.
If you're left, you'll see stuff you like and don't like....same if you're right.
Opinion articles as well, hit both sides depending on the writer.
I know they did have an issue with one person who was writing "opinion" as news, but he was let go and they actually did a nice followup clearing up all that was previously written.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?471986-1/dr-rick-bright-testifies-coronavirus-pandemic-response - ( New Window )
How is that supposed to come about? There is an administration that has lied about its efforts at every single briefing it has had on the matter. And pointing that out is met with a chorus of "fake news." What has been clear about anything the President has said?
When everything critical of the President is labeled as fake news by enemies of the people who are launching coups to overthrow the will of the people, how on Earth do you navigate a coordinated messaging strategy?
The media, the democrats, the FBI, you name it. All undertaking nefarious plots to overthrow the President who has been perfect-- when that concept is driven home every day for years, what impact do you think that has on a nation in terms of trying to be on the same page?
Is Dr. Fauci someone we should trust as a non-partisan lifer who has devoted his life's work to this? Or is he a power-hungry deep state buffoon who is teaming up with Bill Gates to take over the world?
Clear message to the American people? There hasn't been one in god knows how long.
What posters here are calling out things as "fake news" in response to the comments coming from press conferences?
@Alicia_Smith19
I mentioned the other day that Virginia’s testing numbers made no sense, and had weird random jumps in testing. This explains why: Theyre combining the numbers of antibody tests done with viral/PCR tests/swab done, which is really really bad
The state is reporting viral tests and antibody tests in the same figure, even though the two types of test answer different questions about the pandemic and reveal different types of information. By combining these two types of test, the state is able to portray itself as having a more robust infrastructure for tracking and containing the coronavirus than it actually does. It can represent gains in testing that do not exist in reality, says Ashish Jha, the K.T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard.
“It is terrible. It messes up everything,” Jha told us. He said that combining the test results, as Virginia has done, produces information that is impossible to interpret....
link - ( New Window )
It really all comes back to why we have a center for controlling diseases.
I don't get it.
I don't get it.
Politicians want to convey a certain message...
What posters here are calling out things as "fake news" in response to the comments coming from press conferences?
Exactly. He's so dug in, I don't even think he sees the unbelievable hypocrisy in his posts. Even from paragraph to paragraph.
YES PART of the plan was to flatten the curve to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed but it was also to buy time until we could institute widespread testing and tracing, as other countries have done successfully. This is how we finally get the spread of Covid19 under control.
But seriously nothing has been done and nothing has changed.
So States did the first part and have flattened the curve but without test and tracing for the second part we are doomed to get a surge of infections once the stay at home orders are lifted
This is just a complete and utter failure by this administration ..
Alabama: 27.5-percent of unemployment claims came AFTER they relaxed restrictions (total, 21.6% of LF lost jobs).
Alaska: 30.9-percent of unemployment claims came AFTER they relaxed restrictions (total, 27.2% of LF lost jobs).
Arizona: 5.8-percent of unemployment claims came AFTER they relaxed restrictions (total, 15.9% of LF lost jobs).
Arkansas: 21.5-percent of unemployment claims came AFTER they relaxed restrictions (total, 15.4% of LF lost jobs).
Florida: 20.0-percent of unemployment claims came AFTER they relaxed restrictions (total, 19.6% of LF lost jobs).
Georgia: 40.1-percent of unemployment claims came AFTER they relaxed restrictions (total, 36.8% of LF lost jobs).
The median is 13.8-percent.
That's not to say that those who remain shut-down are doing a bang up job.
California, 21.4% of LF lost jobs. Connecticut, 32.1% of LF. Kentucky, 37.2% of LF. Michigan, 29.0% of LF. South Carolina, 21.1% of LF. Virginia, 15.7% of LF.
But what it does say is that there is more of a choice, in terms of the economy, between "open" and "closed".
Quote:
when a test comes in it should be categorized (which test is it) along with the result. From there it should be easy to organize/sort.
I don't get it.
Politicians want to convey a certain message...
Politicians shouldn't be the ones involved in testing results.
Are the results getting miscalculated by the diagnostic facilities or are politicians doing the tampering?
2. if 1 isn't met then we need to make it through the next flu season this coming fall/winter with a greatly decreased death total.
A month ago I was more optimistic about a Q3/Q4 return to normal but not anymore. It looks like we are still a ways away from a vaccine and treatment is still all over the map. With the mutations and such this is looking like its heading right into 2021.
We will likely be almost fully reopened by then, but there's going to be people self quarantining (atleast to an extent) for a pretty long time.
This is just a complete and utter failure by this administration ..
Honestly, this thread has just gone completely off the rails.
kicker - i dont think anyone is arguing re: opening up, that it would help us avoid a major, nasty, painful recession. Most companies have thrown their v-shaped recovery forecasts out the window and are operating on u- or L-shaped assumptions.
But there are degrees of pain and keeping your major GDP areas like NYC, LA, etc closed (I think I read LA is closed for another 3 months? Maybe I read that wrong though)... is going to be a lot worse for the economy, employment and people's livelihoods than reopening in a safe way. Not to mention our kids (lack of) educational and social development if we decide to close schools again next year.
Anecdotally many local businesses in my area aren't rushing back to f2f service if they have curbside or delivery in place. They're waiting to see what the demand is going to be first.
The problem "now" isn't a lack of a clear plan or message. That has been the case since the jump, and by design.
There has not been a clear strategy or plan from the President from the outset of this virus. Any criticism of that, or any call to point that out, or any measure of accountability for it has been labeled by his administration as "fake news."
With things being the way they are, 40% of the country take his side, dismiss all the criticism as an attack. And that only further emboldens the administration's current course of action-- which is one that does not provide a clear plan or clear strategy.
It's a feedback loop.
In speaking with our mayor it sounds like as of now the plan is to start school in September like they normally would but he also said it isn't set it stone, they just can't account for any curveballs right now.
My main point is that marginal changes, rather than large-scale ones, may be the best way to combat both the economic and viral devastation we are seeing.
What I mean by this, is taking time between stages (people are clamoring to move past certain stages or not "assess" the impact).
So what do you attribute to Israel's apparent success in overcoming this virus? I've read in recent months that a good majority of their scientists subscribe to "controlled avalanche" theory - ie., quarantines dont work because you cant stop this virus from spreading.. you just cause yourself incremental financial pain while delaying the inevitable....
but i have no idea if the country actually implemented that policy?
I also question a lot of these relative country statistics because... well everyone accounts for a Covid-related death differently. Age of population, density of population, etc also have to be considered.
In speaking with our mayor it sounds like as of now the plan is to start school in September like they normally would but he also said it isn't set it stone, they just can't account for any curveballs right now.
Same boat. I'm assuming that it will be partially virtual (at best). But with the recent spate of PIMS cases that are kinda popping up (even though rare), it adds a whole new shitty dimension to this shitty fucking China virus.
Newsome says the next phase could be weeks away which would be higher risk businesses like Gyms, Salons, etc. (stage 3)
The extended stay at home order like Kicker said is a base state of readiness but not directly related to the phased re-opening guidance. The 3 month extension is with the expectation that stage 4 (return to normal) will not materialize within that window barring some kind of extreme/unexpected development.
https://covid19.ca.gov/roadmap/ - ( New Window )
What posters here are calling out things as "fake news" in response to the comments coming from press conferences?
Flounder was pretty clearly trying to make the point that CNN portrays themselves as accurate but they're actually biased, while Fox News is biased but "fair and balanced" is just a tagline.
That's just code for fake news. But it's Flounder, and he's about as smart as the sole of my shoe, so maybe that doesn't really count.
Quote:
everything is politicized. Feelings about masks, quarantines, virtually any measure related to the virus has broken across party lines. Feelings about EVERYTHING have broken across party lines. Rather, they have broken across the line of whatever this Administration iks pushing at the current moment.
This has been the case for a while. People can argue back and forth all day as to what was meant exactly by the mealy-mouthed usage of "hoax" was as it pertains to the democrats discussion of the virus. But the messaging to its audience was plain as day as he looped in the "hoax" with comments about Russia. The message to his fervent and large base was effectively
"all these alarms about the virus, the concerns about the severity, their reasons for even talking about it as a a dangerous threat is bullshit. It's fake news. They are liars, and it is an attempted coup to attack me-- to attack US as patriots. I have done the perfect job handling this. Any criticism is a personal attack."
He has done a remarkable job making every possible social, economic, cultural issue a line in the sand litmus test. You're either with him, or you are out to get him.
And the cable opinion hosts and radio hosts aren't helping.
It shouldn't be politicized. There can be debates as to how to mitigate the risk of the virus-- as to how we should balance acceptable risk to re-opening society. How much concern should we have about these Kawasaki-like reports as it pertains to children. What about the link earlier reporting that only one case in China was transmitted outdoors?
What there shouldn't be are people like Tucker Carlson repeatedly calling Dr. Fauci a buffoon on his show. We shouldn't have people like Rand Paul telling Fauci that he needs to have humility.
Your post begins with your issue on how this thing has become completely politicized. You do realize this entire post after the first sentence could not have leaned left any further if you tried and every opinion you have is based off your political leanings?
The fact that you believe that is "left" is crazy and just proves his point. Reality is no longer objective. Somehow, it's perfectly normal and acceptable for the fucking President to make that statement on the even fo a pandemic.
Can you imagine any other president - a single one - in the history of this country, making a statement like that?
It's crazy to me theres a portion of this country, a huge portion, that doesn't view Trump as the President, but as a media figure (and sometimes piece of their identity).
He is held to absolutely no standards at all.
What posters here are calling out things as "fake news" in response to the comments coming from press conferences?
Newsome says the next phase could be weeks away which would be higher risk businesses like Gyms, Salons, etc. (stage 3)
The extended stay at home order like Kicker said is a base state of readiness but not directly related to the phased re-opening guidance. The 3 month extension is with the expectation that stage 4 (return to normal) will not materialize within that window barring some kind of extreme/unexpected development. https://covid19.ca.gov/roadmap/ - ( New Window )
got it, thanks Eric
To PJ's post yesterday - the levee breaking on our mental expectations appears to be an enormous threat that we are unprepared to confront.
And he said tucker carlson should STFU about fauci.
Those are now opinions that show political bias to the left?
Quote:
Have you seen me defend the president here? I’m pointing out the hypocrisy of complaining how politicized it’s become in a post dripping with political blame. You made my point for me. You assumed that’s what I was doing when I never did. Not even close. I’ve been positive and negative towards both sides of the political spectrum on this thread.
Not at all. You said the post was dripping with a left bias because TSU made a perfectly reasonable statement that the president's messaging from the start, and his cries of fake news throughout the presidency, is why it's not possible to create a coherent plan or for the public to accept one.
And he said tucker carlson should STFU about fauci.
Those are now opinions that show political bias to the left?
Um, yes? I'm bowing out. Not here to argue politics. There's a clear faction of society on both sides that are so dug in, they should just simply be ignored. I'm not here to argue with people like that.
Quote:
"fake news" being referenced? Is that pertinent to the COVID discussion or is it just more broad-stoke political commentary?
What posters here are calling out things as "fake news" in response to the comments coming from press conferences?
Because conditioning people to say "fake news" is why there is no clear message that is able to be concocted or accepted.
Again - who is saying "fake news"? You have used this thread to foist political post after political post - even smugly indifferent to the possibility of being banned for it.
There is no correlation to the discussion at hand and fake news. Fake news is behind the CDC's inability to properly message this situation?
No matter how much other discussion is going on here, you and a few others keep using this thread to only focus on politics. Love to understand how political threats all around the globe contributed to the pandemic....
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Have you seen me defend the president here? I’m pointing out the hypocrisy of complaining how politicized it’s become in a post dripping with political blame. You made my point for me. You assumed that’s what I was doing when I never did. Not even close. I’ve been positive and negative towards both sides of the political spectrum on this thread.
Not at all. You said the post was dripping with a left bias because TSU made a perfectly reasonable statement that the president's messaging from the start, and his cries of fake news throughout the presidency, is why it's not possible to create a coherent plan or for the public to accept one.
And he said tucker carlson should STFU about fauci.
Those are now opinions that show political bias to the left?
We seem to have time on our hands,so we can wander in the endless, broad field of political bias as long as we want. But where does it get us and this COVID-19 discussion?
I do not think, personally, that, under the circumstances, the President has made the wisest of decisions about what to say on this situation. He probably knows more now about the stupid virus than he did, say, last week, but still shows a tendency to discount or reject facts he sees as contradicting or interfering with his message. That message, economically driven for the most part, one not without good reason or good purpose, is open up and go back to work. To get people to do that now it is necessary to get people to discount the risks known and unknown about the virus -- so, when thwarted, he just tries to disappear unwelcome facts. Did this regularly happen in "real" wars? When did it not happen is the better question, to which the answer is surely Never.
We should just put this aside, IMHO. This thread is not a vehicle seeking either to shut things down or open them up in this country. To me ithe thread is an effort to share and learn things about the virus of general interest and value: what is and what is not known about it, its origins, its nature, its effects, and how our systems (medical, governmental, and more) are dealing with it. Stuff like that. Politics? We surely know enough about politics already.
And I forget who said (Winston Churchil? John Maynard Keynes?) but the quote was something like "as facts change so does my opinion"
I think with this pandemic that saying is perfectly exemplified.
People seem hellbent on applying what we know now (or believe to be true now) to decisions made or opinions voiced in the past. I don't care if it's Fauci, Birx, CDC, the IHME, Trump, the rest of the task force, Congresspeople from both parties, governors from both parties, etc.
this situation has evolved and as it evolves it requires adjust approach, that is not "just follow the science" or "just open up" but something reasonable (and what is reasonable will change as the facts change).
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1) Something was very, very wrong with the US response and results. I'm not going to argue what that was exactly, but just compare Israel's handling and results through the pandemic vs. NJ's...
So what do you attribute to Israel's apparent success in overcoming this virus? I've read in recent months that a good majority of their scientists subscribe to "controlled avalanche" theory - ie., quarantines dont work because you cant stop this virus from spreading.. you just cause yourself incremental financial pain while delaying the inevitable....
but i have no idea if the country actually implemented that policy?
I also question a lot of these relative country statistics because... well everyone accounts for a Covid-related death differently. Age of population, density of population, etc also have to be considered.
MAB what I gather you read about the "avalanche" hypothesis was NOT AT ALL THE ISRAELI GOV'T OR NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICES RESPONSE. It was first put forth by a single mathematics professor who formerly held a general's rank in the IAF. I have little info on how many individuals may have propped up his hypothesis, but it was immediately disavowed by the National Health Ministry and health experts alike.
Just the opposite, in fact: Israel (which already has closed or easily closeable [ea with Jordan] borders on all sides)
1) very quickly instituted quarantine policies for people entering the country via plane or ship
2) ordered the rapid shutting down of all non essential businesses including schools and many government offices (ea even all the US consulates closed to visitors, and while remaining "open" worked only via mail requests.)
3) put into place a "100 meters" restriction on the entire populace not including those working in essential business and services. You were ordered to stay at home unless going out to buy food or medicine or visiting a doctor or hospital. The 100 meters rule was applied to going out to walk your dog or get a breath of fresh air!
4) shortly after enacting the above restrictions, Israel closed all entrance into the country from ANYONE who is not an Israeli citizen. At the same time, the Israeli government requested that all Israeli citizens abroad who have homes in Israel return immediately. Those returning were immediately tested upon arrival and if asymptomatic allowed to self quarantine in their homes, and if symptomatic quarantined at designated location for two weeks or until declared "recovered."
5) Perhaps the most relevant point to all the above measures (given the general tone of the conversation since my two posts above) is that Israel's shut down and close-off was so complete it led to a 50% unemployment report!!!
Israel bit the bullet as few countries can, I guess. But it passed out of the pandemic phase quicker than any other country in the world, it appears.
My main point is that marginal changes, rather than large-scale ones, may be the best way to combat both the economic and viral devastation we are seeing.
What I mean by this, is taking time between stages (people are clamoring to move past certain stages or not "assess" the impact).
True. I put up the VA material, which shows something like that being tried here and its complexity and fragility. There will be pressures from some to get for the Northern part of the state the same graduated "new" state of affairs that is to become permissible in the rest of it shortly without regard to the fuzzy standards for phasing things back in being used by the commonwealth's health authorities and elected officials. Let's see what happens. Of course it will take at least a month to find out.
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In comment 14901986 BlueLou'sBack said:
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1) Something was very, very wrong with the US response and results. I'm not going to argue what that was exactly, but just compare Israel's handling and results through the pandemic vs. NJ's...
So what do you attribute to Israel's apparent success in overcoming this virus? I've read in recent months that a good majority of their scientists subscribe to "controlled avalanche" theory - ie., quarantines dont work because you cant stop this virus from spreading.. you just cause yourself incremental financial pain while delaying the inevitable....
but i have no idea if the country actually implemented that policy?
I also question a lot of these relative country statistics because... well everyone accounts for a Covid-related death differently. Age of population, density of population, etc also have to be considered.
MAB what I gather you read about the "avalanche" hypothesis was NOT AT ALL THE ISRAELI GOV'T OR NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICES RESPONSE. It was first put forth by a single mathematics professor who formerly held a general's rank in the IAF. I have little info on how many individuals may have propped up his hypothesis, but it was immediately disavowed by the National Health Ministry and health experts alike.
Just the opposite, in fact: Israel (which already has closed or easily closeable [ea with Jordan] borders on all sides)
1) very quickly instituted quarantine policies for people entering the country via plane or ship
2) ordered the rapid shutting down of all non essential businesses including schools and many government offices (ea even all the US consulates closed to visitors, and while remaining "open" worked only via mail requests.)
3) put into place a "100 meters" restriction on the entire populace not including those working in essential business and services. You were ordered to stay at home unless going out to buy food or medicine or visiting a doctor or hospital. The 100 meters rule was applied to going out to walk your dog or get a breath of fresh air!
4) shortly after enacting the above restrictions, Israel closed all entrance into the country from ANYONE who is not an Israeli citizen. At the same time, the Israeli government requested that all Israeli citizens abroad who have homes in Israel return immediately. Those returning were immediately tested upon arrival and if asymptomatic allowed to self quarantine in their homes, and if symptomatic quarantined at designated location for two weeks or until declared "recovered."
5) Perhaps the most relevant point to all the above measures (given the general tone of the conversation since my two posts above) is that Israel's shut down and close-off was so complete it led to a 50% unemployment report!!!
Israel bit the bullet as few countries can, I guess. But it passed out of the pandemic phase quicker than any other country in the world, it appears.
Thanks Lou - really informative and thanks for setting the record straight. Glad to see your country tackling this so well, and best of luck to you as well.
It's two things as I see it.
1) Public policy in Israel re the pandemic was 100% apolitical!!!!
(There are plenty of left vs right issues in Israel regarding almost every matter of public policy, but not health! Not in a crisis!)
2) The elephant in the room: publicly subsidized national healthcare in Israel vs the what now looks ridiculous private system the US clings to - all alone in the developed world and in much of the 3rd world, too.
Why doesn't anyone here on BBI want to talk about it?
In any event, thats not a subject that Eric has any interest in anyone debating on his website. This thread has become way too political as it is.
It’s not a topic that can really be discussed on a message board, given the complexities involved.
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In comment 14901986 BlueLou'sBack said:
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4) shortly after enacting the above restrictions, Israel closed all entrance into the country from ANYONE who is not an Israeli citizen. At the same time, the Israeli government requested that all Israeli citizens abroad who have homes in Israel return immediately. Those returning were immediately tested upon arrival and if asymptomatic allowed to self quarantine in their homes, and if symptomatic quarantined at designated location for two weeks or until declared "recovered."
The only thing I would add, is that it seems like they shifted to quarantining EVERYBODY when they returned. I have a friend who went home and was immediately sent to a hotel at the Dead Sea to quarantine for 2 weeks and she was asymptomatic.
I don't think the way they did it was a realistic option for the US but man, they really got ahead of it and kept the spread down
Sorry for your loss, SFGFNCGiantsFan
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Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
I mentioned the other day that Virginia’s testing numbers made no sense, and had weird random jumps in testing. This explains why: Theyre combining the numbers of antibody tests done with viral/PCR tests/swab done, which is really really bad
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...Many pandemic response efforts assumed clean, standard, accessible data would exist, but they do not. That said, Virginia’s decision to mix the results of two different kinds of tests marks a new low in data standards.
The state is reporting viral tests and antibody tests in the same figure, even though the two types of test answer different questions about the pandemic and reveal different types of information. By combining these two types of test, the state is able to portray itself as having a more robust infrastructure for tracking and containing the coronavirus than it actually does. It can represent gains in testing that do not exist in reality, says Ashish Jha, the K.T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard.
“It is terrible. It messes up everything,” Jha told us. He said that combining the test results, as Virginia has done, produces information that is impossible to interpret....
link - ( New Window )
VA is certainly f#$%ing this up. Commonwealth is being run by an idiot. And no one here is willing to admit this.
arhghhh no some counties in Europe Italy Spain have done worst but most countries in EU like Germany have done much much better than US .. and the bad countries cases are dropping dramatically but US is still going up!
The US continues to have the WORST pandemic response of all the first world nations
.. and you stupid comment "most countries report Covid a little more conservatively than we do too" shows you are a Fox News watcher!
the stupid just burns .. we are doomed ..
And I forget who said (Winston Churchil? John Maynard Keynes?) but the quote was something like "as facts change so does my opinion"
I think with this pandemic that saying is perfectly exemplified.
People seem hellbent on applying what we know now (or believe to be true now) to decisions made or opinions voiced in the past. I don't care if it's Fauci, Birx, CDC, the IHME, Trump, the rest of the task force, Congresspeople from both parties, governors from both parties, etc.
this situation has evolved and as it evolves it requires adjust approach, that is not "just follow the science" or "just open up" but something reasonable (and what is reasonable will change as the facts change).
It would be good to get out of the doublethink mode we've become trapped in (though PCness of one brand or the other both command that we stay right there or its into the basement with us). Do people still read, I sometimes wonder?
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In comment 14902139 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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"fake news" being referenced? Is that pertinent to the COVID discussion or is it just more broad-stoke political commentary?
What posters here are calling out things as "fake news" in response to the comments coming from press conferences?
Because conditioning people to say "fake news" is why there is no clear message that is able to be concocted or accepted.
Again - who is saying "fake news"? You have used this thread to foist political post after political post - even smugly indifferent to the possibility of being banned for it.
There is no correlation to the discussion at hand and fake news. Fake news is behind the CDC's inability to properly message this situation?
No matter how much other discussion is going on here, you and a few others keep using this thread to only focus on politics. Love to understand how political threats all around the globe contributed to the pandemic....
Ok, let me get this out pretty clear, since it's difficult to understand, apparently:
You need clear leadership and messaging in times of a pandemic. You also need consensus. The "fake news" kneejerk reaction is not about people on this board (not solely, at least -- and weird question to ask, there are examples of people in this thread using it). The point is that when people are conditioned to say everything they don't like iis "fake news", there is no way to clearly message it. And that has started from the very top.
The federal government has provided none of this.
This has caused excess deaths, excess harm to the economy, and polarization of something as simple as wearing masks in stores.
Also, if you think people are just talking politics in here in ways that aren't related to COVID, I don't know what to tell you. There is an inherent political quality to discussing the federal response or messaging.
Since this is so clear, quantify the impact. How many more deaths? How much more harm to the economy?
The funny thing - people have praised the press conferences of Cuomo. Informative and clear. People have decried the information and actions of the Georgia governor. Yet, which area has been hit much harder?
Heck, in SC, we've had a few hundred deaths. How do you know that number would be lower if different messaging was used? It could possibly be higher.
If the response and messaging was poor - it should be reflective of overrun health care systems, leading to deaths by not having the proper equipment. Quantify that number. Otherwise, you are just spouting shit to appease your political leaning.
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This has caused excess deaths, excess harm to the economy, and polarization of something as simple as wearing masks in stores.
The funny thing - people have praised the press conferences of Cuomo. Informative and clear. People have decried the information and actions of the Georgia governor. Yet, which area has been hit much harder?
That's a little unfair. Georgia and NY are in no way comparable.
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your second point on the type of medical healthcare system we have strikes me as a world class stretch. Especially considering US deaths per 1MM population is still quite a bit lower than most European countries (and we know most countries report Covid a little more conservatively than we do too)
arhghhh no some counties in Europe Italy Spain have done worst but most countries in EU like Germany have done much much better than US .. and the bad countries cases are dropping dramatically but US is still going up!
The US continues to have the WORST pandemic response of all the first world nations
.. and you stupid comment "most countries report Covid a little more conservatively than we do too" shows you are a Fox News watcher!
the stupid just burns .. we are doomed ..
Spain, Italy, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, France, and Ireland all have more deaths per 1M than the USA. Germany, Norway, Finland, Swiss, Denmark, and Portugal all have less. These are the facts as of today, and I didn't count the tiny places like Isle of Man, or Eastern Europe.
Looks like its 6 more and 6 less.
and some wonder why things are so political on this thread
Sorry, just a personal observation.
and some wonder why things are so political on this thread
If so, then stop getting tested daily yourself perhaps?
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This has caused excess deaths, excess harm to the economy, and polarization of something as simple as wearing masks in stores.
Since this is so clear, quantify the impact. How many more deaths? How much more harm to the economy?
The funny thing - people have praised the press conferences of Cuomo. Informative and clear. People have decried the information and actions of the Georgia governor. Yet, which area has been hit much harder?
Heck, in SC, we've had a few hundred deaths. How do you know that number would be lower if different messaging was used? It could possibly be higher.
If the response and messaging was poor - it should be reflective of overrun health care systems, leading to deaths by not having the proper equipment. Quantify that number. Otherwise, you are just spouting shit to appease your political leaning.
It's so incredibly disingenuous to compare Georgia and SC to NY. But yeah, I'm just "spouting shit" for my "political leaning".
You're right though, glad the President took it so seriously he was saying things like "20 cases, soon to be 0", "It'll go away in April", "the CDC says wear a mask, but I won't". Fluctuating between hoax, downplaying, and declaring victory. White House repressing CDC documents. Focusing solely on the stock market in the EARLY days of the pandemic.
Comparing NY state, literally the densest and largest city in the US and entry point from most of the world to the country, to Georgia and SC = not political.
Saying the messaging from the federal government was muddled and absolute trash = political.
Give me a fucking break. I never said I don't have a political leaning one way or the other, but it doesn't discount my points. And it's a lot more honest and genuine than you pretending you're above it all and are a handful of arbiters of objective information while your "political leanings" are just as visible and transparent as mine.
and some wonder why things are so political on this thread
Lol. Yeah, real clear messaging on the fed government, as the actual career epidemiologists and medical doctors in the government say the diametric opposite.
And FMiC, you want me to give you some roundabout number? I'm not an epidemiologist, but that is what has been agreed upon by virtually all of them. Or, you can have my Dad or Sisters email address, who are physicians, and go ahead and tell them they don't know what the fuck they're talking about.
I'm not pretending to be above anything. I'm asking why several of you guys are making every post political as if that's the crux of the pandemic. With better messaging, we'd not be in this situation. It is a flat out lie.
You guys come on daily and bitch about what is said in press conferences. The inference being that what is said is causing deaths. I really don't give a flying fuck what politicians or talking heads on TV are saying in how it impacts my life. You guys keep talking about this from a partisan standpoint. But you either are willfully ignoring or just a pure dumbass on the fact that this is a pandemic. One not created by politicians. One not cured by politicians. And exaggerating that the US has been terrible in their response and is the worst of civilized nations is a crock of horseshit.
This thread started with wild claims about millions dying to pivoting to being a political clusterfuck - all without merit to prove that politics has either harmed or helped the situation.
stick to facts or stop the political rants.
stick to facts or stop the political rants.
lol
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
the final hour may be even more interesting - it is a separate session with Mike Bowen, EVP of Prestige Ameritech whose company manufactures masks. He was sounding alarms early on when China was starting to order masks through his company and he was hearing from Chinese manufacturers that their government was no longer allowing them to send masks to other countries (even though they have captured the global mask market with pricing below cost). And for context he's a republican who voted for the president. The clip of him from 4:20:00 - 4:22:20 will likely make the rounds on social media the next couple days.
Testimony on Coronavirus Pandemic Response - ( New Window )
It's amazing here how the Hasidic communities react to the rules and recommendations and how others react to that. I have had others associate me with them as simply the Jewish people, when they are a world unto themselves.
We are affiliated with a Chabad congregation. Our synagogue has at least been closed for the duration and, although it pains them, the daily minyan and weekly shabbat services have been ignored. Then again, there is a good chance I contracted the virus after attending a packed Puurim celebration the week preceding the closing of schools and businesses in NYC.
this is great - the huge drop in %positive is highly encouraging because it's illustrated less unknown out there.
these summer months are going to be critical to get a handle on things before fall. We all want football, we all want a functioning economy, we all want schools as open as possible - now is when we need to put in the work to make that happen (with the work being listening to the experts and taking appropriate precautions from the reopening stages to testing strategy to PPE needs).
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that the point is missed by the posters missing it.
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
Yes and no. What do you say to a spike in poisoning, for example, in the days immediately after the suggestion of injecting disinfectant?
that has already been debunked.
Calls to U.S. poison control centers are up. They have been since March.
The problem? Articles shared as illustrations of this actually said no such thing.
One article making the rounds, from the New York Daily News, is headlined "A spike in New Yorkers ingesting household cleaners following Trump's controversial coronavirus comments." But the article makes no mention of anyone deliberately consuming household cleaners. It simply states that 30 people called the city's poison control hotline "over fears that they had ingested bleach or other household cleaners."
Fearing that you ingested something doesn't jibe with having intentionally consumed that substance....
There is also a Time Magazine article that was written before the President said his now famous lines and the article is from April 20th, Trump's comments were made on April 23 - but as usual facts are secondary to a good headline that circulates around the globe before a lightly worded retraction:
As Disinfectant Use Soars to Fight Coronavirus, So Do Accidental Poisonings
link - ( New Window )
Is that filterable at that guy's tableau (link in the chart on Metnut's post) or are you viewing it somewhere else?
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In comment 14902494 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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that the point is missed by the posters missing it.
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
Yes and no. What do you say to a spike in poisoning, for example, in the days immediately after the suggestion of injecting disinfectant?
that has already been debunked.
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No, Poison Control Calls Aren't Suddenly Spiking After Trump's Disinfectant Comments
Calls to U.S. poison control centers are up. They have been since March.
Quote:
....On Thursday, the president suggested that perhaps an "injection" of disinfectant could help cure people of COVID-19. Critics of Donald Trump went to town—and rightfully so!—while supporters scrambled to settle on a defense (both "he didn't really say that" and "he did but it was sarcasm" have been in play). By Saturday morning, social media was abuzz with articles about people calling poison control centers, each crafted to illustrate how Americans had apparently taken Trump's ramblings to heart and consumed household disinfectants like Lysol and bleach.
The problem? Articles shared as illustrations of this actually said no such thing.
One article making the rounds, from the New York Daily News, is headlined "A spike in New Yorkers ingesting household cleaners following Trump's controversial coronavirus comments." But the article makes no mention of anyone deliberately consuming household cleaners. It simply states that 30 people called the city's poison control hotline "over fears that they had ingested bleach or other household cleaners."
Fearing that you ingested something doesn't jibe with having intentionally consumed that substance....
There is also a Time Magazine article that was written before the President said his now famous lines and the article is from April 20th, Trump's comments were made on April 23 - but as usual facts are secondary to a good headline that circulates around the globe before a lightly worded retraction:
Quote:
As Disinfectant Use Soars to Fight Coronavirus, So Do Accidental Poisonings
link - ( New Window )
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
But it doesn't matter - it was a horrendous comparison. What Georgia dealt is not remotely the same. Unless Georgia has the most densely populated city that the rest of the country travels to and from most, and is the entry point to the United States for the entire world?
If the point wasn't to compare Georgia and NY, you probably shouldn't have compared them. You essentially said "Cuomo is apparently doing a bang up job, but look at NY compared to GA". Did you not say that?
The whole "CDC says wear a mask, I mean, I won't wear one" -- yeah, real brilliant messaging. Someone going to say that didn't make a difference either?
The constant downplaying of the virus did not lead to more people who didn't take the virus seriously? How can anyone believe that?
It's very telling that the only retort to the awful messaging from Trump is graphs showing that what he said didn't make an impact.
Someone, please, defend his actual statements and tell me how they are appropriate for the leader of any country to make during a pandemic.
The only other two heads of state who have been as reckless as Trump are Bolsanaro and Lukashenko.
You cannot extricate "politics" from criticism of the federal governments response, especially when the federal response is largely predicated off of appeasing the President.
You cannot extricate "politics" from criticism of the federal governments response, especially when the federal response is largely predicated off of appeasing the President.
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
But that's the example you chose to use - GA to NY in regards to messaging. I wouldn't use that example if I was going to make a case that messaging can have an effect.
That's because you could be doing a bang up job, and still not getting the results in NYC just because of the unique situation that it presents for COVID19.
Likewise, you could be doing a below average job and getting good results just due to circumstance/conditions in another state.
In all situations, there's more to success than just messaging. You could make the case messaging is window dressing. But that was the comparison you brought up.
I would tend to use other examples where messaging does hurt the good fight versus COVID19.
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In comment 14902498 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14902494 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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that the point is missed by the posters missing it.
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
Yes and no. What do you say to a spike in poisoning, for example, in the days immediately after the suggestion of injecting disinfectant?
that has already been debunked.
Quote:
No, Poison Control Calls Aren't Suddenly Spiking After Trump's Disinfectant Comments
Calls to U.S. poison control centers are up. They have been since March.
Quote:
....On Thursday, the president suggested that perhaps an "injection" of disinfectant could help cure people of COVID-19. Critics of Donald Trump went to town—and rightfully so!—while supporters scrambled to settle on a defense (both "he didn't really say that" and "he did but it was sarcasm" have been in play). By Saturday morning, social media was abuzz with articles about people calling poison control centers, each crafted to illustrate how Americans had apparently taken Trump's ramblings to heart and consumed household disinfectants like Lysol and bleach.
The problem? Articles shared as illustrations of this actually said no such thing.
One article making the rounds, from the New York Daily News, is headlined "A spike in New Yorkers ingesting household cleaners following Trump's controversial coronavirus comments." But the article makes no mention of anyone deliberately consuming household cleaners. It simply states that 30 people called the city's poison control hotline "over fears that they had ingested bleach or other household cleaners."
Fearing that you ingested something doesn't jibe with having intentionally consumed that substance....
There is also a Time Magazine article that was written before the President said his now famous lines and the article is from April 20th, Trump's comments were made on April 23 - but as usual facts are secondary to a good headline that circulates around the globe before a lightly worded retraction:
Quote:
As Disinfectant Use Soars to Fight Coronavirus, So Do Accidental Poisonings
link - ( New Window )
Thank you for the clarification.
LOL..who cares if it was debunked.
When I heard people had to call after he said it - and someone surely did.....I'm not sure who to feel more sorry for. The person who delivered it or the people who thought maybe there's a chance............
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is if you disaggregate those charts from Metnut by rural and urban classification (at the county level).
Is that filterable at that guy's tableau (link in the chart on Metnut's post) or are you viewing it somewhere else?
Sorry; I did it myself (use the same basic data but filterable at the county level from JHU, and have rural classifications from research I've done).
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that the point is missed by the posters missing it.
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
But that's the example you chose to use - GA to NY in regards to messaging. I wouldn't use that example if I was going to make a case that messaging can have an effect.
That's because you could be doing a bang up job, and still not getting the results in NYC just because of the unique situation that it presents for COVID19.
Likewise, you could be doing a below average job and getting good results just due to circumstance/conditions in another state.
In all situations, there's more to success than just messaging. You could make the case messaging is window dressing. But that was the comparison you brought up.
I would tend to use other examples where messaging does hurt the good fight versus COVID19.
The overarching point is that politics isn't what caused the virus. It isn't what is impacting the severity or lack thereof. It isn't curing people or making more ill.
Yet this thread is dominated with political rants.
States and countries with wildly different leadership styles have had similar results and some with similar leadership styles have had different results.
This isn't a political situation. And posts insinuating that politics is killing people and making more sick ring hollow - but they abound anyway.
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I have no idea how many times I can explain it this to you:
You cannot extricate "politics" from criticism of the federal governments response, especially when the federal response is largely predicated off of appeasing the President.
The same can be said in terms of praise for Cuomo. Politics are definitely in play, and this is coming from a registered Democrat. But, while he is largely being praised as a rock star and the like for simply being clear and thorough in his briefings, isn't he guilty of some of the criticisms of other leaders? I have read criticisms of the PResident, for example, for being a politician as the primary speaker at the briefings and potentially suppressing information. But, isn't Cuomo a politician? You can also question the degree to which all the decisions have been based on medicine, empirical data, etc. For example, going back a few years, why were ventilators and PPE not purchased for a stockpile, when those were explicit recommendations from experts?
Reddit's NYC subreddit is pretty liberal -- you should see the reaction to Cuomo in the comments of the daily threads.
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In comment 14902578 Sonic Youth said:
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I have no idea how many times I can explain it this to you:
You cannot extricate "politics" from criticism of the federal governments response, especially when the federal response is largely predicated off of appeasing the President.
The same can be said in terms of praise for Cuomo. Politics are definitely in play, and this is coming from a registered Democrat. But, while he is largely being praised as a rock star and the like for simply being clear and thorough in his briefings, isn't he guilty of some of the criticisms of other leaders? I have read criticisms of the PResident, for example, for being a politician as the primary speaker at the briefings and potentially suppressing information. But, isn't Cuomo a politician? You can also question the degree to which all the decisions have been based on medicine, empirical data, etc. For example, going back a few years, why were ventilators and PPE not purchased for a stockpile, when those were explicit recommendations from experts?
Totally. I mentioned it in one of my posts again, he's being slammed (rightfully so) by many for how he dealt with nursing homes.
Reddit's NYC subreddit is pretty liberal -- you should see the reaction to Cuomo in the comments of the daily threads.
He's an interesting case. In comparison to other politicians, he comes across as more polished and prepared to speak on a daily basis, which scores a lot of points, especially for the aesthetics and especially outside NYS. But, then you look at some of the decisions and see that disconnect and they are largely overlooked by the media.
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In comment 14902494 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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that the point is missed by the posters missing it.
The point wasn't to compare NYC to Georgia. The point is that the messaging from the political people isn't moving the needle one way or another - yet it is being assertively stated it is.
Cuomo is supposedly doing a bang up job and the Georgia Governor has been a dumbass. Is that trickling down to make things better or worse? No.
Your bias is causing you to focus on the wrong words.
But that's the example you chose to use - GA to NY in regards to messaging. I wouldn't use that example if I was going to make a case that messaging can have an effect.
That's because you could be doing a bang up job, and still not getting the results in NYC just because of the unique situation that it presents for COVID19.
Likewise, you could be doing a below average job and getting good results just due to circumstance/conditions in another state.
In all situations, there's more to success than just messaging. You could make the case messaging is window dressing. But that was the comparison you brought up.
I would tend to use other examples where messaging does hurt the good fight versus COVID19.
The overarching point is that politics isn't what caused the virus. It isn't what is impacting the severity or lack thereof. It isn't curing people or making more ill.
Yet this thread is dominated with political rants.
States and countries with wildly different leadership styles have had similar results and some with similar leadership styles have had different results.
This isn't a political situation. And posts insinuating that politics is killing people and making more sick ring hollow - but they abound anyway.
Not one person, not a single soul, said politics caused the virus. That's a strawman and you know it.
People are criticizing the response of federal and local governments. That is political, whether you like it or not.
If you want people to not mention governments, or have them mention shit and not let anyone respond, then I guess email the mods and have them police the thread or delete it or whatever.
Sorry it's hurting your eyes so much to see people go back and forth about covid related issues on a message board.
BTW, politics clearly does play a part when theres *literally correlation between your political party and whether you will wear a mask in a store*
@JoeConchaTV
·
10m
White House preparing executive order requiring certain essential drugs be made in U.S., sources say
The administration has a wide-ranging supply chain effort underway for products in a variety of sectors seen as national security issues, including drugs, medical supplies, semiconductors and defense equipment....
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BTW, politics clearly does play a part when theres *literally correlation between your political party and whether you will wear a mask in a store*
You just can't help yourself. I've gone out several times where literally everyone has a mask on. And I'm pretty sure you take offense at the color my state is, because it is what you do. Every. fucking. Post
@Alicia_Smith19
·
May 13
The first stages of reopening haven’t produced a surge in coronavirus cases in most states — at least, not yet.
There is a hell of a lot of variation in between those...
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BTW, politics clearly does play a part when theres *literally correlation between your political party and whether you will wear a mask in a store*
You just can't help yourself. I've gone out several times where literally everyone has a mask on. And I'm pretty sure you take offense at the color my state is, because it is what you do. Every. fucking. Post
Thanks for your anecdotal observations. Was going off the linked post.
And fuck off with your "can't help your self" bullshit -- I'm replying to posts you addressed to me.
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By Alyssa Paolicelli New York City
PUBLISHED 7:18 AM ET May. 12, 2020
NEW YORK - Researchers at NYU's Grossman School of Medicine found patients given the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine along with zinc sulphate and the antibiotic azithromycin were 44 percent less likely to die from the coronavirus.
"Certainly we have very limited options as far as what we have seen work for this infection so anything that may work is very exciting," said Dr. Joseph Rahimian, Infectious Disease Specialist at NYU Langone Health
More than 400 of them were also given 100 milligrams of zinc daily.
Researchers said the patients given zinc were one and a half times more likely to recover, decreasing their need for intensive care...
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@Alicia_Smith19
·
2m
Week-over-week change in current COVID hospitalizations since 5/7(last week's number in parentheses)
VA: -4.96%(+6.3%)
MD: -8.62%(-1.64%)
TX: -5.83% (+3.8%)
FL: +14.05%(+21.04%)*
NJ: -18.88%(-18.59%)
OH: +13.96%(+17.18%)*
PA: -18.98(-10.83%)
NC: -3.43%(-3.85%)
GA: +8.66%*
Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
·
2m
*FL, OH, and GA only report cumulative hospitalizations and does not publish data on currently hospitalized,so numbers will always be increasing in these states and appears inflated compared to other states.But trend in increase can still give info on rate of new admissions
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Drug Combo with Hydroxychloroquine Promising: NYU Study
By Alyssa Paolicelli New York City
PUBLISHED 7:18 AM ET May. 12, 2020
NEW YORK - Researchers at NYU's Grossman School of Medicine found patients given the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine along with zinc sulphate and the antibiotic azithromycin were 44 percent less likely to die from the coronavirus.
"Certainly we have very limited options as far as what we have seen work for this infection so anything that may work is very exciting," said Dr. Joseph Rahimian, Infectious Disease Specialist at NYU Langone Health
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...The study looked at the records of 932 COVID-19 patients treated at local hospitals with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.
More than 400 of them were also given 100 milligrams of zinc daily.
Researchers said the patients given zinc were one and a half times more likely to recover, decreasing their need for intensive care...
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It's not you, but this is the problem with "breaking research" like this. It's not a proper study; they investigated (ex ante) the records of hospitalizations.
So, it could be HCL; it could be the severity of the disease based on the patient population that received HCL. It could be shitty doctors. It could be any other reason.
As the story correctly notes later, HCL was found (in a properly conducted experiment) to have no statistical impact on deaths.
It's not you, but this is the problem with "breaking research" like this. It's not a proper study; they investigated (ex ante) the records of hospitalizations.
So, it could be HCL; it could be the severity of the disease based on the patient population that received HCL. It could be shitty doctors. It could be any other reason.
As the story correctly notes later, HCL was found (in a properly conducted experiment) to have no statistical impact on deaths.
I know, I think most people look at it as the book isn't closed yet. In France, I read this is part of their standard treatment protocol and they are seeing good results.
No clue if a proper test has been done there or not.
I get the sense some people automatically want it to fail because Trump suggested it, others are just looking for some treatment.
I don't care if it's hydroxychloroquine or remdesivir or something else or who first suggested it, if it helps even a subset of people I'm hopeful we get a treatment protocol to get people out of the hospital quicker and able to ease even more restrictions.
No one thinks about the unintended consequences, which is what I think a lot of people (including me) take affront to. It's a drug that has legitimate treatments (lupus, arthritis?) that people are struggling to get because of shortages. It causes some decently serious heart issues in people who take it.
Read what Bright said today.
HCL is not a proven drug. At this point, any "analysis" that suggests its effective is anecdotal only. And given that there are nearly 5 million people infected, basic probability suggests that HCL COULD be effective in that population, just by randomness.
Basically, the French medical literature consensus is that HCL does not work statistically.
No one thinks about the unintended consequences, which is what I think a lot of people (including me) take affront to. It's a drug that has legitimate treatments (lupus, arthritis?) that people are struggling to get because of shortages. It causes some decently serious heart issues in people who take it.
Read what Bright said today.
HCL is not a proven drug. At this point, any "analysis" that suggests its effective is anecdotal only. And given that there are nearly 5 million people infected, basic probability suggests that HCL COULD be effective in that population, just by randomness.
Dr. Bright requested emergency use authorization from the FDA in March.
It was granted.
I didn't get to watch his testimony yet, did he address that?
Novartis is doing a more rigorous study, from what I read they don't think a true study has been done, and with the fact the drug is generic now, it's very cheap. Novartis alone committed to donate 130 million doses to ensure people with lupus or other ailments don't experience difficulty filling their prescriptions.
Here is what Novartis said April 20. Not sure if they have published results yet:
In either case, if you can eliminate the people at risk of heart disease and make sure supply isn't jeopardized for people who need it, it seems pretty cheap, harmless, and even if helps a random subset maybe it can help get people out of the hospital quicker. even if it has no impact on fatalities.
"Our window of opportunity is closing," Bright said. "Without better planning, 2020 could be the darkest winter in modern history."
You don’t have to believe everything Rick Bright said when he testified. But that statement above is something that I feel is true and needs to be in our minds as we deal with the current first wave.
This is especially scary because it is an election year so politicians might be less focused and willing to work together on this issue.
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qualifications to opine on the subject do. Unless you think large swathes of people are rooting for the virus, may want to walk back the "hoping for it to fail".
No one thinks about the unintended consequences, which is what I think a lot of people (including me) take affront to. It's a drug that has legitimate treatments (lupus, arthritis?) that people are struggling to get because of shortages. It causes some decently serious heart issues in people who take it.
Read what Bright said today.
HCL is not a proven drug. At this point, any "analysis" that suggests its effective is anecdotal only. And given that there are nearly 5 million people infected, basic probability suggests that HCL COULD be effective in that population, just by randomness.
Dr. Bright requested emergency use authorization from the FDA in March.
It was granted.
I didn't get to watch his testimony yet, did he address that?
Novartis is doing a more rigorous study, from what I read they don't think a true study has been done, and with the fact the drug is generic now, it's very cheap. Novartis alone committed to donate 130 million doses to ensure people with lupus or other ailments don't experience difficulty filling their prescriptions.
Here is what Novartis said April 20. Not sure if they have published results yet:
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...A series of small studies, most of them not randomized (for instance, some compared patients who agreed to take the drug to those who didn’t) and not blinded (doctors and patients knew who got which drug) have shown conflicting results. One French study showed a dramatic reduction in blood levels of the SARS-CoV-2 virus with the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, the antibiotic once sold by Pfizer as Zithromax....
In either case, if you can eliminate the people at risk of heart disease and make sure supply isn't jeopardized for people who need it, it seems pretty cheap, harmless, and even if helps a random subset maybe it can help get people out of the hospital quicker. even if it has no impact on fatalities.
Emergency use authorization is largely done in instances where anecdotes suggest that a drug could be helpful, and that the drug has passed other clinical trials.
And yes, he addressed it.
And at this point, to the best of the medical literature's knowledge, they are unsure about why those certain side effects are showing up. Doesn't that make that, you know, dangerous?
https://jamanetwork.com/channels/health-forum/fullarticle/2764607
he is trying to wish this away. saying it would never hit the US? wishing it away. 20 cases, soon to be 0? wishing it away. now he's anti test, because he doesn't want confirmed case numbers to go up.
"tests are overrated". what the fuck does that even mean?
why is that so hard to understand?
And you do realize people cannot "just take it" they need a doctor to prescribe it no matter what the president says or doesn't say.
I don't know of any medical doctor in my anecdotal experience who is prescribing something because a patient asks for it.
If the doctor doesn't think it will help, they're not having their patient take it and most of the people who would have it prescribed are hospitalized, so it's not like they can even shop around for a doctor or find some black market source.
Regardless, someone in power should know that people respond to things he says. If tomorrow the President were to state that the beef supply would run out in a week, what do you think the response is?
If that previous paragraph has any credence (it does), then you better be fucking careful about what you say to a populace that is scientifically illiterate.
"Our window of opportunity is closing," Bright said. "Without better planning, 2020 could be the darkest winter in modern history."
You don’t have to believe everything Rick Bright said when he testified. But that statement above is something that I feel is true and needs to be in our minds as we deal with the current first wave.
This is especially scary because it is an election year so politicians might be less focused and willing to work together on this issue.
Yeah. It's going to probably be a Fall/Winter with 100,000+ deaths from respiratory diseases. That's distressing. I've seen estimates that maybe double that.
I don't really know what will happen to a lot of families. Holidays always put a lot of budgetary stress, and if this thing flares up again, I could see reimplementation of some shelter-in-place policies, which are already eviscerating those earning <$40,000.
But the chances of an existing drug being largely effective against a novel disease are low. Pharmaceuticals are highly complex and tailored compounds for diseases with known profiles.
Only 1 in 5,000 compounds ever gets developed. 1 in 10 of these makes it to trial. 3 in 10 of these ever make money (and thus are on the market) (EDIT: These are what I remember off the top of my head from lectures; you schmucks aren't important enough to go to my paper notes).
The likelihood is having to live with this, rather than a vaccine or treatment. And that's fine, but there are costs to promoting stuff...
hahahaha he could care less if it works -- he only cares if it will help his reelection and his ego
Voting for a failed Reality TV Game Show Host as President was bad enough - now you are trying to rationalize his incompetence - that is just sad
I don't really know what will happen to a lot of families. Holidays always put a lot of budgetary stress, and if this thing flares up again, I could see reimplementation of some shelter-in-place policies, which are already eviscerating those earning <$40,000.
Considering the stress of the holiday season that you mentioned, the worse weather, the seasonal flu, the financial effects of this current/first wave still being felt, and the general despair an "Oh shit, here we go again" fall/winter resurgence would create... It's just a bad combination of things from a bunch of different angles.
I'm just scared for the financial and emotional stability of the country if the 2nd wave hits in Winter and is worse than this wave. It's a toxic scenario.
But at least I'm confident in the fact that the experience from this 1st wave should have us much more prepared to limit the number of infected/deaths in the Winter. We have no excuse. This is something we need to be preparing for right now even as we're still dealing with the first wave.
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I think he really wants it to work, but if it's not hydroxychloroquine but remdesivir or some other drug not yet mentioned I really don't think he'd care one bit as long as it helps.
hahahaha he could care less if it works -- he only cares if it will help his reelection and his ego
Voting for a failed Reality TV Game Show Host as President was bad enough - now you are trying to rationalize his incompetence - that is just sad
It's pretty clear that the President thinks the harm foreseeable from total collapse of the economy is worse than the harm of some more deaths from overly excited "reopenings." The whole reopening thing is worth thinking about more than it has been. The elderly -- the most easily killed by the virus -- are not going to be part of that. But the younger will be and have to be what supports that reopening, taking into account their real but lesser risk of dying from the virus. So the unlikelihood of any drug, new or old, mattering much in combating the virus is just another factor, not determinative to him whether he's actually talked himself into some fantasy about hydroxychloroquine or some other damned thing or not. I repeat: for him its all about open up and go back to work no matter the risk.
up until a few weeks ago the guy was leading the vaccine development effort which may or may not be the single most important scientific project of all our lifetimes. A development process he started working on in early January when most of the rest of the world (and Govt) was months away from realizing we were even up against this thing. And a process he may be leading again since the main thing he seems to be looking for is to get reinstated (which the watchdog he filed his complain with has already recommended and may be something we should all be rooting for bc I haven't seen anyone argue against on the merits in terms of whether he's the most qualified person for that position). Now may not be the ideal time to let QB2 get some reps in.
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Yeah. It's going to probably be a Fall/Winter with 100,000+ deaths from respiratory diseases. That's distressing. I've seen estimates that maybe double that.
I don't really know what will happen to a lot of families. Holidays always put a lot of budgetary stress, and if this thing flares up again, I could see reimplementation of some shelter-in-place policies, which are already eviscerating those earning <$40,000.
Considering the stress of the holiday season that you mentioned, the worse weather, the seasonal flu, the financial effects of this current/first wave still being felt, and the general despair an "Oh shit, here we go again" fall/winter resurgence would create... It's just a bad combination of things from a bunch of different angles.
I'm just scared for the financial and emotional stability of the country if the 2nd wave hits in Winter and is worse than this wave. It's a toxic scenario.
But at least I'm confident in the fact that the experience from this 1st wave should have us much more prepared to limit the number of infected/deaths in the Winter. We have no excuse. This is something we need to be preparing for right now even as we're still dealing with the first wave.
Yeah this is what's troubling because most people are looking at a finish line that they think is right in front of them not realizing this is going to be a marathon. IHME model has revised up around 150k deaths for wave 1 and as you mentioned wave 2 could be better or worse depending on our efforts.
The FDA said the Abbott ID NOW point-of-care test, which was given emergency authorization by them in March, may return false negatives in some cases where patients actually have the coronavirus. The FDA said it had received 15 reports that the device didn’t reflect accurate results.
I also worry that Federal and State government make too many short sighted decisions that cause much longer pain for everyone.
Open the economy smartly and adjust accordingly. I think too many businesses failing in short order will lead to potential financial crisis on top of all the other issues. I also think some cities/states are in for bleak times ahead.
Xbronx-I think at this point we recognize you dislike the POTUS.
The opioid crisis agrees.
@scottlincicome
· 1h
"Many Americans Are Getting More Money From Unemployment Than They Were From Their Jobs" https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/many-
up until a few weeks ago the guy was leading the vaccine development effort which may or may not be the single most important scientific project of all our lifetimes. A development process he started working on in early January when most of the rest of the world (and Govt) was months away from realizing we were even up against this thing. And a process he may be leading again since the main thing he seems to be looking for is to get reinstated (which the watchdog he filed his complain with has already recommended and may be something we should all be rooting for bc I haven't seen anyone argue against on the merits in terms of whether he's the most qualified person for that position). Now may not be the ideal time to let QB2 get some reps in.
Everything in that town revolves around power, money and influence. Everything. And even more so under the dome. We are in for a parade of "experts" all claiming to have seen all this coming and their warning ignored. The parade shows up after every major crisis.
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Scott Lincicome
@scottlincicome
· 1h
"Many Americans Are Getting More Money From Unemployment Than They Were From Their Jobs" https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/many-
I can attest to this but if I get hired during this better believe I'm going to take a job. Who the hell knows if I'll get something later down the road when a lot of these people are hired back into the workforce.
So we shouldn’t consider degrees?
Both sides-ism is such a dreadful cancer within our country. Enabling con-men & frauds who presumably can never be uniquely held to account for anything.
“Well yes, I heard about the impossibly bewildering musings about injecting ourselves with disinfectant to fight the virus – just like a ‘cleaning’, right? – but, hey, both sides disappoint eventually!”
“It’s true that prime time bowtie blowhards did gratuitously denigrate the USA’s most important pathologist as a ‘buffoon’, but let’s not be ‘political’ by calling it absurd & unhelpful. Both sides are dug in.”
(I’ll refrain from citing examples from pjcas – BBI’s most disingenuous poster – so as to keep this post under 10,000 words).
Worse yet, both sides-ism infects not just the dimmest among us (healthily represented in this thread, including by our infamous blubbering slob) from whom we’ve come to expect intellectual dross, but also those who know better but who are more concerned with appearing above the fray than with embracing what’s right.
In reality, they’re moral cowards.
The fucking bar in this country has sunk so God damn low that the alien-esque creatures of the Mariana Trench have started to complain of crowding.
Florida man beats Covid, for now
By MARC CAPUTO and RENUKA RAYASAM
05/14/2020 08:21 PM EDT
FROM THE NON-FRONTLINES — Good evening, and greetings from Florida, where we feel the need to inform you that it’s not a post-apocalyptic hellscape of coronavirus infection and cadavers stacked like cordwood. That is, Florida just doesn’t look nearly as bad as the national news media and sky-is-falling critics have been predicting for about two months now. But then, the national news media is mostly based in New York and loves to love its Democratic governor, Andrew Cuomo, about as much as it loves to hate on Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
First, let’s just come out and say it: DeSantis looks more right than those who criticized the Sunshine State’s coronavirus response. According to the latest Florida figures, fewer than 2,000 have died, and around 43,000 have been infected. That’s a fraction of the dire predictions made for Florida when spring breakers swarmed the beaches, and those numbers are dwarfed by similarly sized New York, which has seen 12 times more deaths and nearly eight times more infections. (Check out POLITICO’s coronavirus tracker for more.) More people reportedly died in New York nursing homes than in all of Florida.
The polling disparity: DeSantis is actually polling worse than Cuomo in their respective states, and the Florida press is wondering why. Part of that is style. Cuomo has a smooth delivery, a deep and calming voice and an attitude that projects he can answer any question. DeSantis sometimes comes across as peevish and defensive, has made a misstatement or two and was mocked for struggling to put on a mask. But most of the difference between DeSantis and Cuomo is due to politics. DeSantis governs a politically divided state. Cuomo is a scion of Democratic royalty in a deeply Democratic state.
Yes, there’s media bias, too. Cuomo also has something else DeSantis doesn’t: a press that defers to him, one that preferred to cover “Florida Morons” at the beach (where it’s relatively hard to get infected) over New Yorkers riding cramped subway cars (where it’s easy to get infected). In fact, people can still ride the subways for most hours of the day in New York, but Miami Beach’s sands remain closed. Maybe things would be different if DeSantis had a brother who worked in cable news and interviewed him for a “sweet moment” in primetime......
link - ( New Window )
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I think the vast majority of politicians will disappoint given time on both sides.
So we shouldn’t consider degrees?
Both sides-ism is such a dreadful cancer within our country. Enabling con-men & frauds who presumably can never be uniquely held to account for anything.
“Well yes, I heard about the impossibly bewildering musings about injecting ourselves with disinfectant to fight the virus – just like a ‘cleaning’, right? – but, hey, both sides disappoint eventually!”
“It’s true that prime time bowtie blowhards did gratuitously denigrate the USA’s most important pathologist as a ‘buffoon’, but let’s not be ‘political’ by calling it absurd & unhelpful. Both sides are dug in.”
(I’ll refrain from citing examples from pjcas – BBI’s most disingenuous poster – so as to keep this post under 10,000 words).
Worse yet, both sides-ism infects not just the dimmest among us (healthily represented in this thread, including by our infamous blubbering slob) from whom we’ve come to expect intellectual dross, but also those who know better but who are more concerned with appearing above the fray than with embracing what’s right.
In reality, they’re moral cowards.
The fucking bar in this country has sunk so God damn low that the alien-esque creatures of the Mariana Trench have started to complain of crowding.
You really are an asshole
Quote:
for all the rants about "the media" it would seem to me that a pretty good antidote is the firsthand expert source testifying under oath, under penalty of perjury, with verifiable documentary evidence and being asked questions evenly split between congress people of both parties (many of whom appeared to be dr's themselves and who were surprisingly uncircuslike).
up until a few weeks ago the guy was leading the vaccine development effort which may or may not be the single most important scientific project of all our lifetimes. A development process he started working on in early January when most of the rest of the world (and Govt) was months away from realizing we were even up against this thing. And a process he may be leading again since the main thing he seems to be looking for is to get reinstated (which the watchdog he filed his complain with has already recommended and may be something we should all be rooting for bc I haven't seen anyone argue against on the merits in terms of whether he's the most qualified person for that position). Now may not be the ideal time to let QB2 get some reps in.
Obama appointee with an ax to grind about being transferred to the NIH and being represented by the same D operative as represented Ms. Ford. His 60 Minutes interview is no doubt already in the can.
Everything in that town revolves around power, money and influence. Everything. And even more so under the dome. We are in for a parade of "experts" all claiming to have seen all this coming and their warning ignored. The parade shows up after every major crisis.
Who was Mike Bowen appointed by? Perhaps you'd find his testimony more credible. I'd also remind that both were answering questions from both sides of the aisle, which you'd expect to articulate both sides of the discussion.
Or we can just dismiss any dissenting voices as was done from January to early March and hope things just go better this time. A poor response to the 2nd wave and another market crash would really compliment the fall foliage.
Published: May 15, 2020 By Mark Terry
from the linked article
...A week ago, Sorrento announced it was teaming up with New York City-based Mount Sinai Health System to develop an antibody cocktail called COVI-SHIELD to treat COVID-19. The partnership is aimed at creating antibody products that could act as a “protective shield” against infection by the virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2. COVI-SHIELD is expected to deliver a mixture of three antibodies that combined recognize three specific regions of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein....
That was STI-1499. Currently, Sorrento believes STI-1499 will be the first antibody in the three-antibody cocktail, COVI-SHIELD, which it is developing with Mount Sinai. Additionally, because of its high potency, it plans to develop the antibody as a stand-alone therapy, COVI-GUARD.
“The pathway we’re following right now is quite similar to the pathways used in antibody therapies for oncology indications, where an antibody is discovered that is reactive to a specific cancer marker, grown up in culture, and given to patients,” Brunswick said. “So what we’ve done is identified an antibody that recognizes the COVID-19 virus and completely inhibits its binding to the specific receptor. This is grown up in vitro, in tissue culture, in cell fermenters.”...
“The difference between an antibody and a vaccine is that a vaccine takes either a protein from the virus, or—some of them aren’t real vaccines, but people are calling them vaccines—where DNA or RNA is being injected into patients’ arms and making material in the patient that then the patient’s immune system responds to what’s being made,” Brunswick said. “The problem with that is not every patient will respond to a vaccine. Some will have 10% efficacy, some will have 20% efficacy, some will have 90% efficacy. But until you’ve gone into large trials and assessed everyone, you won’t know the full extent a vaccine works. An antibody gives instantaneous protection against the virus.”...
If the Phase I trial starts by the beginning of July, they will know within a week or two whether the antibody is having an effect. If it is effective and safe in the patients, they would expect to start a larger Phase II trial in August or possibly September.
“Hopefully we will be able to submit for approval before the end of the year or beginning of next year,” Brunswick added....
link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14903124 Eric on Li said:
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for all the rants about "the media" it would seem to me that a pretty good antidote is the firsthand expert source testifying under oath, under penalty of perjury, with verifiable documentary evidence and being asked questions evenly split between congress people of both parties (many of whom appeared to be dr's themselves and who were surprisingly uncircuslike).
up until a few weeks ago the guy was leading the vaccine development effort which may or may not be the single most important scientific project of all our lifetimes. A development process he started working on in early January when most of the rest of the world (and Govt) was months away from realizing we were even up against this thing. And a process he may be leading again since the main thing he seems to be looking for is to get reinstated (which the watchdog he filed his complain with has already recommended and may be something we should all be rooting for bc I haven't seen anyone argue against on the merits in terms of whether he's the most qualified person for that position). Now may not be the ideal time to let QB2 get some reps in.
Obama appointee with an ax to grind about being transferred to the NIH and being represented by the same D operative as represented Ms. Ford. His 60 Minutes interview is no doubt already in the can.
Everything in that town revolves around power, money and influence. Everything. And even more so under the dome. We are in for a parade of "experts" all claiming to have seen all this coming and their warning ignored. The parade shows up after every major crisis.
Who was Mike Bowen appointed by? Perhaps you'd find his testimony more credible. I'd also remind that both were answering questions from both sides of the aisle, which you'd expect to articulate both sides of the discussion.
Or we can just dismiss any dissenting voices as was done from January to early March and hope things just go better this time. A poor response to the 2nd wave and another market crash would really compliment the fall foliage.
Seems clear that Dr. Bright was in charge of some minor piece of our overly elaborate, splintered federal healthcare apparatus and was jealously protective of, and after his transfer sorely missed, whatever prerogatives that old job conferred on him. He clearly had no real influence on anything or the results from any of the intergroup communications and meetings his own kittle group was to have had or did have with other such units -- in which he seems to have been largely ignored by others with more influence than he had. This clearly annoyed and frustrated him since he was not actually really in charge of very much but thought he should be in charge of everything, believing he knew better than all the rest. That is, he was no different from the bulk of the overpaid, credentialed, but still only middle level and subordinate bureaucrats who toil away unnoticeably in our vast government worker engine.
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Florida man beats Covid, for now
By MARC CAPUTO and RENUKA RAYASAM
05/14/2020 08:21 PM EDT
Quote:
....
FROM THE NON-FRONTLINES — Good evening, and greetings from Florida, where we feel the need to inform you that it’s not a post-apocalyptic hellscape of coronavirus infection and cadavers stacked like cordwood. That is, Florida just doesn’t look nearly as bad as the national news media and sky-is-falling critics have been predicting for about two months now. But then, the national news media is mostly based in New York and loves to love its Democratic governor, Andrew Cuomo, about as much as it loves to hate on Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
First, let’s just come out and say it: DeSantis looks more right than those who criticized the Sunshine State’s coronavirus response. According to the latest Florida figures, fewer than 2,000 have died, and around 43,000 have been infected. That’s a fraction of the dire predictions made for Florida when spring breakers swarmed the beaches, and those numbers are dwarfed by similarly sized New York, which has seen 12 times more deaths and nearly eight times more infections. (Check out POLITICO’s coronavirus tracker for more.) More people reportedly died in New York nursing homes than in all of Florida.
The polling disparity: DeSantis is actually polling worse than Cuomo in their respective states, and the Florida press is wondering why. Part of that is style. Cuomo has a smooth delivery, a deep and calming voice and an attitude that projects he can answer any question. DeSantis sometimes comes across as peevish and defensive, has made a misstatement or two and was mocked for struggling to put on a mask. But most of the difference between DeSantis and Cuomo is due to politics. DeSantis governs a politically divided state. Cuomo is a scion of Democratic royalty in a deeply Democratic state.
Yes, there’s media bias, too. Cuomo also has something else DeSantis doesn’t: a press that defers to him, one that preferred to cover “Florida Morons” at the beach (where it’s relatively hard to get infected) over New Yorkers riding cramped subway cars (where it’s easy to get infected). In fact, people can still ride the subways for most hours of the day in New York, but Miami Beach’s sands remain closed. Maybe things would be different if DeSantis had a brother who worked in cable news and interviewed him for a “sweet moment” in primetime......
link - ( New Window )
I think FL benefits from being a "commuter" state. Everyone travels in cars. I've also read that FL residents have been excellent in terms of social distancing.
Things are more spead out in general than a place like NYC. Of course FL does has cities. Different environment, different climate.....there's a lot of factors. Did those spring breakers simply take the virus, if they had it, somewhere else? Again, all those breakers weren't from other states either...some were from FL surely.
As you said, we'll know more as we keep moving forward and learn more about COVID.
Also, we followed every piece of advice that Bright told us to do.
Also, nobody could have seen this coming.
Also, nobody left us a plan.
Also, they left us a plan but it wasn’t long enough.
Also, we were prepared better than anyone and our plan was better.
Exhausting.
Quote:
Doctors have been well known to prescribe things when patients ask.
The opioid crisis agrees.
Fake news.
That is not a middle manager. And the complaint he filed, which the independent investigator has found to have merit, is central to the definition of that agency.
Are we just going to ignore the fact that so far the evidence seems to support his positions re: HCQ and Remdesivir?
Quote:
The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) is a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services office responsible for procurement and development of countermeasures principally against bioterrorism, but also including chemical, nuclear and radiological threats as well as pandemic influenza and emerging diseases
That is not a middle manager. And the complaint he filed, which the independent investigator has found to have merit, is central to the definition of that agency.
Quote:
Bright was recently asked to step down as Director of BARDA and said he believed he was removed from his post because he insisted that “the billions of dollars allocated by Congress to address the COVID-19 pandemic” be invested “into safe and scientifically vetted solutions, and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit."
Are we just going to ignore the fact that so far the evidence seems to support his positions re: HCQ and Remdesivir?
There also seemed to be some question that emails inferred that he was all for HCQ. But I think he explained it pretty well. Part of his answer was this stuff was being brought in from other countries, and would not be supervised by phyicians is how he stated it I believe. Which raised a red flag in his mind.
Quote:
for all the rants about "the media" it would seem to me that a pretty good antidote is the firsthand expert source testifying under oath, under penalty of perjury, with verifiable documentary evidence and being asked questions evenly split between congress people of both parties (many of whom appeared to be dr's themselves and who were surprisingly uncircuslike).
up until a few weeks ago the guy was leading the vaccine development effort which may or may not be the single most important scientific project of all our lifetimes. A development process he started working on in early January when most of the rest of the world (and Govt) was months away from realizing we were even up against this thing. And a process he may be leading again since the main thing he seems to be looking for is to get reinstated (which the watchdog he filed his complain with has already recommended and may be something we should all be rooting for bc I haven't seen anyone argue against on the merits in terms of whether he's the most qualified person for that position). Now may not be the ideal time to let QB2 get some reps in.
Obama appointee with an ax to grind about being transferred to the NIH and being represented by the same D operative as represented Ms. Ford. His 60 Minutes interview is no doubt already in the can.
Everything in that town revolves around power, money and influence. Everything. And even more so under the dome. We are in for a parade of "experts" all claiming to have seen all this coming and their warning ignored. The parade shows up after every major crisis.
Now health experts and physicians giving us the science in a pandemic are part of the "deep state" in peoples fever dreams. What an awful, terrible post and outlook. If it doesn't jive with you, it's "deep state" or "fake news". Just ways to stick your head in the sand and ignore reality.
[quote] In comment 14903432 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14903308 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
In comment 14903124 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
for all the rants about "the media" it would seem to me that a pretty good antidote is the firsthand expert source testifying under oath, under penalty of perjury, with verifiable documentary evidence and being asked questions evenly split between congress people of both parties (many of whom appeared to be dr's themselves and who were surprisingly uncircuslike).
up until a few weeks ago the guy was leading the vaccine development effort which may or may not be the single most important scientific project of all our lifetimes. A development process he started working on in early January when most of the rest of the world (and Govt) was months away from realizing we were even up against this thing. And a process he may be leading again since the main thing he seems to be looking for is to get reinstated (which the watchdog he filed his complain with has already recommended and may be something we should all be rooting for bc I haven't seen anyone argue against on the merits in terms of whether he's the most qualified person for that position). Now may not be the ideal time to let QB2 get some reps in.
Obama appointee with an ax to grind about being transferred to the NIH and being represented by the same D operative as represented Ms. Ford. His 60 Minutes interview is no doubt already in the can.
Everything in that town revolves around power, money and influence. Everything. And even more so under the dome. We are in for a parade of "experts" all claiming to have seen all this coming and their warning ignored. The parade shows up after every major crisis.
Who was Mike Bowen appointed by? Perhaps you'd find his testimony more credible. I'd also remind that both were answering questions from both sides of the aisle, which you'd expect to articulate both sides of the discussion.
Or we can just dismiss any dissenting voices as was done from January to early March and hope things just go better this time. A poor response to the 2nd wave and another market crash would really compliment the fall foliage.
Seems clear that Dr. Bright was in charge of some minor piece of our overly elaborate, splintered federal healthcare apparatus and was jealously protective of, and after his transfer sorely missed, whatever prerogatives that old job conferred on him. He clearly had no real influence on anything or the results from any of the intergroup communications and meetings his own kittle group was to have had or did have with other such units -- in which he seems to have been largely ignored by others with more influence than he had. This clearly annoyed and frustrated him since he was not actually really in charge of very much but thought he should be in charge of everything, believing he knew better than all the rest. That is, he was no different from the bulk of the overpaid, credentialed, but still only middle level and subordinate bureaucrats who toil away unnoticeably in our vast government worker engine. [/quote
Show me one shred of evidence to support any of this.
@JonCampbellGAN
· 7m
NEW: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware will all reopen beaches beginning Memorial Day weekend, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo says.
(NJ had announced yesterday. Until today, NY had planned to keep state beaches closed through May 31.)
@JonCampbellGAN
· 7m
NEW: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware will all reopen beaches beginning Memorial Day weekend, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo says.
(NJ had announced yesterday. Until today, NY had planned to keep state beaches closed through May 31.)
The lower outdoors risk is a huge positive with Summer coming up. I'm hoping they can find a way to allow some form of camps for kids even if it has to be all outdoors/modified from full days.
The FDA said the Abbott ID NOW point-of-care test, which was given emergency authorization by them in March, may return false negatives in some cases where patients actually have the coronavirus. The FDA said it had received 15 reports that the device didn’t reflect accurate results.
Meh. “Testing is overrated ... it just results in more cases.” [Sarcasm intended].
Quote:
The Abbott device has been used at the White House to screen staff members and visitors and can provide rapid results. Trump himself trotted out the machine during a news conference, calling the results “highly accurate” and saying the device made the fight against infections a “whole new ballgame.”
The FDA said the Abbott ID NOW point-of-care test, which was given emergency authorization by them in March, may return false negatives in some cases where patients actually have the coronavirus. The FDA said it had received 15 reports that the device didn’t reflect accurate results.
Meh. “Testing is overrated ... it just results in more cases.” [Sarcasm intended].
WaPo Analysis piece (not a news article) but outlines various times and instances where Trump has said testing "makes us look bad because numbers go up" or things to that effect - ( New Window )
I am not rippint fauci, just want to point that out but..
Didnt Fauci himself said in January and then in february that this was not of concern to the united states? so if the top doctor is saying thos why do you expect a politician to do something different?
link - ( New Window )
If they're counting COVID-19 as primary, secondary, tertiary or more causes of death, can they ever achieve this?
No more than 1 COVID-19 case per 10,000 in the past 14 days prior to attestation submission date.
No COVID-19 death in the past 14 days prior to attestation submission date....
link - ( New Window )
So, while cities may be hard pressed, more rural areas will not.
Quote:
if this past week was any indication from the Fauci testimony to the Senate, to Bright yesterday, it's hard to overstate how helpful that could have been to start informing the public understanding of this issue back in January/February. Those discussions were seemingly going on in closed forums and it's curious as to why they couldn't have happened publicly.
I am not rippint fauci, just want to point that out but..
Didnt Fauci himself said in January and then in february that this was not of concern to the united states? so if the top doctor is saying thos why do you expect a politician to do something different?
Nobody is infallible and Fauci certainly made some statements that are just wrong with hindsight as our understanding of the virus evolved - that is sort of the exact point of why it may have been helpful to have an open forum with a multitude of the relevant gov't officials to make recommendations to congress publicly as they were privately. Some in congress were obviously getting the picture in late January based on their closed sessions.
Yesterday's testimony is I believe the first time we've heard first hand and seen source documentation of some in the government's efforts to start vaccine development in January, along with urgent efforts to start securing PPE, etc and many of the questioners in congress on both sides even expressed dismay that they hadn't been able to hear these concerns earlier.
I don't understand the underlying reasons, I like to believe they have the best intentions, but from the stories you hear it sure sounds like quality of care by and large is not great (in good times), and in times like this it seems like they have almost no chance.
Personally, I think I would have to have no other options before I considered putting a loved one in a nursing home (maybe that's the standard and they're a last resort in general, but this pandemic has highlighted it)
Do you think restaurants that survive primarily on the dine-in model can survive with partial capacity/new guidelines? Is it a "this is better than being closed" scenario or will it cost too much to have staff/food/materials etc brought in for only partial capacity?
I don't know typical margins or how these businesses can adjust but I read several in Italy were not confident they could survive for long this way.
maybe if you start a post without Ha or lol or something like that and just said what you want to say I wouldn't feel like I'm conversing with a child and usually just ignore you.
Was there something in the Washington Examiner link you disagreed with?
Did I see/hear that right?
Quote:
does not meet the guidelines. However, certain cities and zip codes in Fresno County OUTSIDE of the major city (Fresno) do, and have been tentatively allowed in-person dining, though I believe it's mainly being done outside.
Do you think restaurants that survive primarily on the dine-in model can survive with partial capacity/new guidelines? Is it a "this is better than being closed" scenario or will it cost too much to have staff/food/materials etc brought in for only partial capacity?
I don't know typical margins or how these businesses can adjust but I read several in Italy were not confident they could survive for long this way.
It's going to be difficult; most will probably not survive for a significant period of time. I could absolutely see ~30-40% (and that may be an underestimate) of restaurants who operate today not surviving a year.
But you simply cannot go back to full dining capacity. That's not happening in pretty much any area that gives a shit.
https://twitter.com/SteveRattner/status/1261276309541568513?s=20 - ( New Window )
@BBCLBicker
KCDC Seoul nightclub outbreak update:
153 people in total so far infected. 90 club goers infected. 63 friends , family and colleagues caught COVID19 from them.
More than 46,000 people have been tested for covid19 in connection with these cases.
To the point about dine-in, obviously that's lower risk than nightclubs/bars, but it would seem we are a very long way from having the infrastructure to support this kind of testing/tracing/containment.
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1261165548940873728 - ( New Window )
People actually voted for this MORON!
Did I see/hear that right?
Timmy promised me no homework in 5th grade. I still don’t forgive him...
Was there something in the Washington Examiner link you disagreed with?
YEs Washington Examiner is a conservative website that twist things and spins to reinforce their world view .. completely SHODDY journalism
For example the article you quote
There are almost no "Pure Deaths" with any disease. Cancer is a great example, it starts typically in one area and then spreads to others wrecking havoc throughout the body. While the cause of death may be listed as 'Cancer' because that was what was driving the death, the actual cause of death may have been renal failure.
Desmond appears to be attempting to downplay the seriousness of COVID-19 as part of a Republican coordinated attempt to distract the voters from the complete failure of Trump's leadership during the virus emergency. Unfortunately for those how voted for him -- he comes off as a complete MORON ..
the fact that Washington Examiner uses this example in their story to DOWNPLAY the crisis shows their journalism standards
Right wing media was humorous when they spend years trying to convince the world Obama was a socialist born in Kenya .. but now things are life and death and I have ZERO patience ..
Did I see/hear that right?
That would be good news. Is there a source?
I read that esteemed Dr. Moncef Slaoui (formerly of GSK and others) was appointed to "Operation Warp Speed" initiative as "Vaccine Czar" - which is a pretty cool title.
And he said today that based on data it's possible that we could have a couple hundred million doses of a vaccine by the end of the year with a goal of 300 million.
I didn't see a promise, but of course I don't see or hear everything, and maybe promise vs possibility is a distinction without a difference, once you communicate something being possible, some people take it as a commitment.
typical caveat required here, I have no clue the political leanings of "FiercePharma.com" if it offends someone I'm not sorry.
link - ( New Window )
The resurgence of the virus in the five sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt underscores the befuddling behavior of the highly contagious virus and raises questions about how troops that test positive can be reintegrated into the military, particularly on ships.
All five sailors had previously tested positive and had gone through at least two weeks of isolation. As part of the process, they all had to test negative twice in a row, with the tests separated by at least a day or two before they were allowed to go back to the ship.
Sailors on sidelined carrier get virus for second time - ( New Window )
Especially given how severe (and still relatively unknown) this virus is.
LOL, of course it is.
It’s funny how all these people think they now have this “gotcha” moment. For decades, death data have been known to have caveats attaches to them.
Quote:
...just promised by feds by end of 2020.
Did I see/hear that right?
That would be good news. Is there a source?
I read that esteemed Dr. Moncef Slaoui (formerly of GSK and others) was appointed to "Operation Warp Speed" initiative as "Vaccine Czar" - which is a pretty cool title.
And he said today that based on data it's possible that we could have a couple hundred million doses of a vaccine by the end of the year with a goal of 300 million.
I didn't see a promise, but of course I don't see or hear everything, and maybe promise vs possibility is a distinction without a difference, once you communicate something being possible, some people take it as a commitment.
Quote:
Operation Warp Speed first made headlines late last month with a report from Bloomberg detailing the effort spanning numerous government agencies and the military. At the time, the group reportedly aimed to deliver 100 million COVID-19 vaccine doses by the end of the year. But the Associated Press now cites a goal of 300 million.
typical caveat required here, I have no clue the political leanings of "FiercePharma.com" if it offends someone I'm not sorry. link - ( New Window )
I think I heard it wrong. Data suggests a vaccine could be had by end of 2020 is now what I should be reporting lol.......
Quote:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Five sailors on the aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, according to the Navy.
The resurgence of the virus in the five sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt underscores the befuddling behavior of the highly contagious virus and raises questions about how troops that test positive can be reintegrated into the military, particularly on ships.
All five sailors had previously tested positive and had gone through at least two weeks of isolation. As part of the process, they all had to test negative twice in a row, with the tests separated by at least a day or two before they were allowed to go back to the ship.
Sailors on sidelined carrier get virus for second time - ( New Window )
Probably just the abbott test that is a beautiful test. The greatest test made
Quote:
The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) is a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services office responsible for procurement and development of countermeasures principally against bioterrorism, but also including chemical, nuclear and radiological threats as well as pandemic influenza and emerging diseases
That is not a middle manager. And the complaint he filed, which the independent investigator has found to have merit, is central to the definition of that agency.
Quote:
Bright was recently asked to step down as Director of BARDA and said he believed he was removed from his post because he insisted that “the billions of dollars allocated by Congress to address the COVID-19 pandemic” be invested “into safe and scientifically vetted solutions, and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit."
Are we just going to ignore the fact that so far the evidence seems to support his positions re: HCQ and Remdesivir?
He is only one of many who are involved in virus and vaccine matters at HHS. It takes an age to wade through it, but if you already know about BARDA, OIDP, CDC, NCIRD, and the BSC and who runs each and to which Assistant Secretary (two are involved) each, along with several more offices, reports, and finally getting to the Deputy and he Secretary of HHS, all having authority over and responsibility for viruses, treatments for infectious diseases, and vaccines, you've at least properly begin the journey. Mid-level in HHS? Absolutely. Giving you "senior level" if that makes you feel better wouldn't hurt me, but there are quite a few at this level in HHS. That is, he definitely isn't the dominant fish in that gigantic pond on the subject ot viruses.
As to HCQ, lots of favorable reports about it when used early in COVID-19 infections litter the news. Jury remains out on this one.
Quote:
"pure deaths" argument is just so full of shit.
LOL, of course it is.
It’s funny how all these people think they now have this “gotcha” moment. For decades, death data have been known to have caveats attaches to them.
I don't view it as a gotcha moment and I don't think the people who cite it do either. Everything is not one side or the other. Everything is not black and white, liberal or conservative, republican or democrat. Sometimes people just want to know the truth.
What I think people want to know is "cause of death" - not if they had COVID-19 or not when they died.
Like me, most people are not experts in this space, so we rely on the media or experts when they present publicly to get our information.
When Dr. Birx says she doesn't trust data from the CDC and she thinks fatalities are being over-reported I trust her more than Osi Osi Osi or Kicker on BBI (no offense). Dr. Fauci thinks different and feels like fatalities could be underreported which shows me, the non-expert, there is not a consensus with how to classify a fatality.
Dr. Fauci and Birx are both part of the same task force and both pre-dated the current administration and have disagreed with the administration publicly.
Then when you read things like people in hospice being considered a COVID-19 fatality it opens enough doubt that people (IMO) are justified in questioning the true numbers - not saying they're wrong, but at least looking for an explanation.
Then when you read country to country they consider recording the same person with the same conditions cause of death differently it shows that globally there is no consensus.
In my mind I'd expect a coroner or medical examiner (not even sure if there is a difference) or some medical professional to attribute a "cause of death".
If someone dies in hospice but had COVID-19 or even just suspected of possibly having COVID-19 I would not expect their cause of death to be COVID-19. And even if hospice is a fraction of the deaths, it's the doubt it creates that makes people wonder.
So, even though some people in here are stuck in the mindset of making everything "us or them" there is a considerable segment of the population (of which I include myself) that just wants definitive answers, not a gotcha moment.
Have a great weekend. Stay safe (I mean that - even if Overseer thinks it's disingenuous) I'm out.
Then when you read country to country they consider recording the same person with the same conditions cause of death differently it shows that globally there is no consensus.
In my mind I'd expect a coroner or medical examiner (not even sure if there is a difference) or some medical professional to attribute a "cause of death".
If someone dies in hospice but had COVID-19 or even just suspected of possibly having COVID-19 I would not expect their cause of death to be COVID-19. And even if hospice is a fraction of the deaths, it's the doubt it creates that makes people wonder.
I mean, its May 15th, and we have to wait another week for STATE unemployment. But now we're creating this narrative about the people who are calculating COVID deaths on a DAILY BASIS.
Does any of you have any idea how difficult that is? Almost real time data is unheard of.
And it's, at this point, pretty much one-sided as to why people are worried about over- or under-counting. No one wants to inflict continued economic or mortality pain. But some people have a tremendous desire to underplay the importance of this.
People need to learn about the data collection process. There's a reason why monthly data is often REVISED after the process, as they continue to gather the facts.
Sorry for your loss, and thank you for that response. There’s an old Native American saying: The truth requires few words. I’m reminded of that on this thread as I read all these long winded attempts deflect and justify.
But yeah, daily COVID death rates are going to be perfect.
Just because a data point is not perfect doesn't mean it's unreliable.
DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES ARE WAYYYY UP.
There are plenty of articles with numbers showing this. I've even literally made a post on here with statistical backup from the CDC website where I showed how much of an outlier COVID is compared to the seasonal flu and how (once again, if you are still comparing this to the seasonal flu, you're an idiot).
Are the specific numbers accurate? No, absolutely not, how can we possibly know the exact numbers real-time? But the general idea that COVID is causing less deaths than reported is not something that is backed up unless you believe one of 2 things.
1. All of a sudden people are dying from other causes at a much higher rate than usual.
2. The "deaths from all causes" numbers are being fabricated by the CDC/media/etc.
Is #1 really more believable than a pandemic causing excess deaths? And do you honestly believe #2 is something that the CDC/media/etc. could even hope to pull off without being caught red handed for making up such easily provable lies?
"Pure deaths" is a pure semantics argument for the sole purpose of downplaying the full scope of the pandemic.
My friend was riding his longboard around my apartment today and called me, so I hung out on the porch and bullshitted with him while he was in the street for like 20 minutes. Weather was so beautiful, and he's like "yeah, that awesome day you, me [insert 6 other people] went to that rooftop bar? that was a year ago today" -- and shit, that hit hit home.
He's convinced NYC will be back to normal by "the end of the summer" but I feel like I know better and sort of think those days won't come back for a couple years at best, if ever.
It's really getting me down. I hate this quarantine, I really honestly am tempted to just break it and start going to some of my friends houses. It's had an immeasurably negative toll on my mental health, physical health, alcohol consumption, and on top of that, it basically robbed my favorite part of the year from everyone - springtime in the city.
At least I'm healthy and had a final interview yesterday that I should be hearing back from soon. They put me through 8 rounds and it took 6 weeks but I'm optimistic, though not counting my chickens. Then packing, finding an apartment, moving...
Really longing for the days where I could be out on the rooftop bars with my boys and whatever girl I'm dating at the time enjoying what it's like to be a young professional in the city. Playing shows, seeing concerts and DJs, happy hours after work (that shit is definitely gone forever)...
All this sucks. Someone earlier said the levee was breaking on the "stay at home forever" crowd... it's not like anyone wants to actually stay at home like this.
Like I said earlier though, at least I'm healthy and nobody in my family has gotten incredibly ill just yet.
Just saying, this is the worst.
Here’s the thing - I’m typically an optimist by nature - just focus on the positive however difficult that may be - your interviews, new job potential, etc. Spend more time sitting on your stoop talking to your friends in the street, while it sucks this may be the new normal for who knows how long so make the best of it.
I’m older than you but have been going to punk shows, rock shows, etc. for the past 25 years. That scene is obviously shut down for awhile but lots of bands/singers I usually see in a club or bar are doing live streaming shows which I tune into as much as I can. As weird as it sounds they feel kind of intimate, just someone with his/her acoustic playing to who knows how many people watching online. Again, it’s not the same as a live show but it’s much better than nothing. We all need to adjust to keep our sanity and some sense of happiness.
Hopefully if everyone plays this re-opening smart and uses their heads we can be back to as close to normal as we can, and avoid a bad recurrence come the Fall and Winter.
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Exactly.
And very sorry for your loss.
Warren Buffett bought and sold a large stake in the airline industry in probably the shortest transaction window in Berkshire's history a few months ago and just sold 80%+ of their position in Goldman Sachs. Point being nobody knows where this is going but it's probably a bump ride ahead and what we are going through now is closer to what the new normal will be for an extended period of time than the old normal. My fear is that a chunk of society is not mentally preparing for that and indulging unrealistic expectations, which may in turn only make things bumpier, especially when this comes back in the fall. But my hope is that better weather expands our margins for error as it seems to have done with the spring breakers in FL (and other warm weather states). Getting some sports back on tv safely and some of these phased re-openings will hopefully go a long way to making things progressively better - but only if we get them right, which is I think logically what most people are going to do with their own lives regardless of easing restrictions. Evaluate what is sensible and safe for their lives/families until this is behind us (which is why seeking out the best info out there is essential).
Hong Kong Flu 1968 - ( New Window )
By the way after reading up on this Hong Kong flu since I found it interesting, I read that this whole Social Distancing thing only became a theory in around 2005. So its a new concept and this flu is kind of the "guinea pig". I was under the impression that this was a tried and known method, when a lot of articles are positioning it as the latest theory (so to speak). Maybe you guys knew this but I didn't.
Hong Kong Flu killed 100K in a year
COVID19 has killed 88K in 2 months at at current rate will pass 100K in a week.
there is no treatment for COVID19
please just stop
Hong Kong Flu killed 100K in a year
COVID19 has killed 88K in 2 months at at current rate will pass 100K in a week.
there is no treatment for COVID19
please just stop
Just chill out, what is your issue? I found it interesting, thats all, and there are a lot of similarities. Just because it was give the name "flu" 50 years ago doesn't mean anything. There have been a lot of corona viruses around.
You are completely intolerant of any discussion not in line with your thinking.
Just have a visceral disdain for those who spread disinformation, promote contrary-to-science skepticism, the "freedom" protestors that happen to feature Army Ranger cosplayers armed to teeth and draped in Trump paraphenalia, and the comfortably middle-class "what about the economy?" concern trolls while people are dying and continue to die. While people are infected and continue to get infected. While people live in fear of getting infected, especially our most vulnerable, knowing the odds of surviving are like playing Russian Roulette.
And that's without getting into the real scenarios of people you care for -- friends, family, loved ones -- risking their lives as essential workers.
For those unaffected, it's so easy to turn this into a political issue, like any other, especially in a presidential election year. It's abstract to them, and it requires empathy, severely lacking, to understand the plight and pain beyond a "yeah, BUT (insert politically motivated COVID-19 contrarianism)" statement.
Hong Kong Flu killed 100K in a year
COVID19 has killed 88K in 2 months at at current rate will pass 100K in a week.
there is no treatment for COVID19
please just stop
88k if you believe the numbers are accurate - many think it is low and many think it is high
Hong Kong Flu killed 100K in a year
COVID19 has killed 88K in 2 months at at current rate will pass 100K in a week.
there is no treatment for COVID19
please just stop
Oh, and just because its called the Hong Kong Flu in the public, it is a virus like Covid. It came from the H3N2 strain of Influenza A. Just chill out. There was no treatment for this either, until one was developed (as it will be with Covid 19)
I think it's definitely an interesting comparison. But it's just a far different time. Think about it, the difference between 2020 and 1968 is that same as 1968 and 1916.
This is a country that didn't let women vote until the 1920s. That didn't regulate child labor until the 1930s. That didn't give rights to minorities until the 1960s.
Think about how different we were as a country in 1916 to 1968. Now we haven't had such monumental changes from 1968 to 2020, but we've still progressed a ton including valuing individual lives a little bit more than we used to. We are much more informed about health and current events today. It was a lot easier to supress the details of the Hong Kong Flu back then.
I agree that it's an interesting comparison, to see how differently it was treated. But that doesn't mean that "not giving a shit about it" like they did in 1968 was the way we should've gone today. At the end of the day we're doing our best to balance negative economic impact with deaths. I'm happy that atleast we're trying to limit deaths unlike they did in 1968.
1. When does this end? It seems like the only way it's actually really going to end are when we either build up herd immunity or a vaccine/cure is found.
2. Are we sure social distancing and lockdowns are the answer? Or is it just a somewhat educated guess based on models. It doesn't seem like there's any real life experience to go by, so are we totally relying on models and educated guesses rather than really having proof to back up that this is the only correct way to handle this?
Everything these days is so polarizing because everything is based on party lines it seems which sucks.
I get the lockdown part from the perspective of making sure the hospital system wasn't overwhelmed, but it seems to my zero education on any of this besides reading stuff online that the only way the lockdowns/social distancing are really going to work if we keep them in place until there is a cure/vaccine. And by the time that happens, the economic impact is likely to destroy the country in a way far worse than the virus itself has.
From what I've read, this policy was put in place/developed only 15 years ago. So why are we so sure that it's the best course of action?
I don't have the answers. Just wondering how this is ever going to end with the current plan.
2- hopefully we end up with a better answer than social distancing, or at least a modified version, but it seems to be the best (or only) answer we have at the moment. That's why everyone around the world is doing it (even Sweden - they just aren't doing it with as firm restrictions). And just about everywhere around the world it has slowed down transmission so while it is a blunt tool with a lot of collateral damage it is effective at the primary objective - slowing transmission.
this ends with better answers than social distancing, or at least tools to allow it to relax like SK has with testing/tracing, we just don't have them yet. A therapeutic drug that dramatically changes outcomes or a vaccine are the magic bullets if someone can invent them - and as much as anything else the current plan is to buy as much time with as little damage as possible until someone invents one or the other.
WRONG !!! This is why I wish we had a government that was not lead by a Failed Reality TV Game Show Host .. without knowledge and transparency we are doomed
Coronaviruses are named for the crown-like spikes on their surface. There are four main sub-groupings of coronaviruses, known as alpha, beta, gamma, and delta.
Human coronaviruses were first identified in the mid-1960s. The seven coronaviruses that can infect people are:
Common human coronaviruses
229E (alpha coronavirus)
NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
OC43 (beta coronavirus)
HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
Other human coronaviruses
MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)
The first four on this list give human's the common cold-- COVID19 is not like the flu .. it is completely different virus ..
also notice there are current ZERO vaccines for any of these coronaviruses on this list ..
Human Coronavirus Types - ( New Window )
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Very similar to Covid19. Of course in 1968 no one did social distancing or shut down the economy. I barely remember it. Woodstock happened, Apollo rockets happened, life continued. In the end 100K died in the US, mostly people over 65, and many of the symptoms seemed the same. Very interesting Hong Kong Flu 1968 - ( New Window )
I think it's definitely an interesting comparison. But it's just a far different time. Think about it, the difference between 2020 and 1968 is that same as 1968 and 1916.
This is a country that didn't let women vote until the 1920s. That didn't regulate child labor until the 1930s. That didn't give rights to minorities until the 1960s.
Think about how different we were as a country in 1916 to 1968. Now we haven't had such monumental changes from 1968 to 2020, but we've still progressed a ton including valuing individual lives a little bit more than we used to. We are much more informed about health and current events today. It was a lot easier to supress the details of the Hong Kong Flu back then.
I agree that it's an interesting comparison, to see how differently it was treated. But that doesn't mean that "not giving a shit about it" like they did in 1968 was the way we should've gone today. At the end of the day we're doing our best to balance negative economic impact with deaths. I'm happy that atleast we're trying to limit deaths unlike they did in 1968.
I am in Massachusetts, own four liquor stores and have worked everyday since before the lockdown. My area hasn’t been hit too hard, at least not yet, and it took a few weeks before people took the social distancing seriously. I am not sure if it is working or not because the places where people can go are packed, my business included.
Many are suffering from lockdown fatigue and want it to end regardless of consequences, others refuse to even believe their are potential consequences. I don’t know what to believe but if I wanted to believe something it wouldn’t matter what it was because I could cherry pick data to justify it. One I do know is that alcohol consumption has skyrocketed and there will be social and economic consequences from this alone.
To everyone who has lost family members, friends, co workers or acquaintances I would like to express my sorrow for your loss.
I am in Massachusetts, own four liquor stores and have worked everyday since before the lockdown. My area hasn’t been hit too hard, at least not yet, and it took a few weeks before people took the social distancing seriously. I am not sure if it is working or not because the places where people can go are packed, my business included.
Many are suffering from lockdown fatigue and want it to end regardless of consequences, others refuse to even believe their are potential consequences. I don’t know what to believe but if I wanted to believe something it wouldn’t matter what it was because I could cherry pick data to justify it. One I do know is that alcohol consumption has skyrocketed and there will be social and economic consequences from this alone.
To everyone who has lost family members, friends, co workers or acquaintances I would like to express my sorrow for your loss.
Gee hopefully we will survive. TBA.
Stay well all!
We project the CRW for the next year across the world using weather data (averaged over a moving window of 15 days) from 2019-2020 period. Our projections suggest warmer and more humid times of the year, and locations, may offer a modest reduction in reproductive number, helping with efforts to contain the pandemic and build response capacity. However, CRW numbers rarely drop below 0.5, indicating that upcoming changes in weather alone will not be enough to fully contain the transmission of COVID-19.
Overall results
Our findings provide evidence for the relationship between several weather variables and the spread of COVID-19.
However, the (conservatively) estimated relationships are not strong enough to seasonally control the epidemic in most locations.
We find a negative relationship between temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius and estimated reproduction number.
One millibar of additional pressure increases the estimated reproduction number by approximately 0.8 percent at the median pressure (1016 millibars).
Increasing relative humidity strengthens the negative effect of temperature above 25 degrees.
We also find significant positive effects for wind speed, precipitation, and diurnal temperature on the estimated reproduction number.
Weather Conditions and COVID-19 Transmission - ( New Window )
For me, Fauci is all I have left in terms of public medical professionals I can trust. Scary times we live in - for that reason alone (notwithstanding the whole pandemic thing).
Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton has calculated that 40 percent immunity in the capital could be enough to stop the virus’s spread there and that this could happen by mid-June.
Sweden has won praise in some quarters for ... keeping its per capita death rate lower than those of Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. But it has come in for criticism in other quarters for exceeding the per capita death rates of other Nordic countries ...
People receiving nursing and elder-care services account for upward of 50 percent of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden, according to Tegnell, in part because many facilities were grievously slow to implement basic protective measures such as mask wearing.
Sweden’s approach to COVID-19 reflects the country’s distinctive culture, and aspects of it may not be easy to replicate elsewhere. In particular, reliance on official recommendations and individual responsibility may not travel well beyond Scandinavia. Sweden is a special country characterized by high levels of trust—not just between people but between people and government institutions. Swedes were primed to take voluntary recommendations seriously in a way that citizens of other nations may not be.
Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s - ( New Window )
I am in Massachusetts, own four liquor stores and have worked everyday since before the lockdown. My area hasn’t been hit too hard, at least not yet, and it took a few weeks before people took the social distancing seriously. I am not sure if it is working or not because the places where people can go are packed, my business included.
Many are suffering from lockdown fatigue and want it to end regardless of consequences, others refuse to even believe their are potential consequences. I don’t know what to believe but if I wanted to believe something it wouldn’t matter what it was because I could cherry pick data to justify it. One I do know is that alcohol consumption has skyrocketed and there will be social and economic consequences from this alone.
To everyone who has lost family members, friends, co workers or acquaintances I would like to express my sorrow for your loss.
Mindless drones stop hyping up this blown out of proportion nonsense.
Blown out of proportion nonsense exposed. - ( New Window )
Too many folks point to the Swedish model with an air of 'we don't need no gov't giving us rules. We should do what we want', completely missing what the Swedish model is.
Two months in, most of the folks around here can't grasp, or willfully abuse, a simple concept of mandatory social distancing. I seriously doubt merely suggesting guidelines will result in much compliance.
Did I see/hear that right?
Are you a mindless drone that still believes the government?
It reminds of Tom Cruise in Collateral:
"No, I shot him. The bullets and the fall killed him."
Too many folks point to the Swedish model with an air of 'we don't need no gov't giving us rules. We should do what we want', completely missing what the Swedish model is.
Two months in, most of the folks around here can't grasp, or willfully abuse, a simple concept of mandatory social distancing. I seriously doubt merely suggesting guidelines will result in much compliance.
i dont know if you read the full article and not just the excerpted text, but that was not the key takeaway.
the key takeaway is that a lockdown is not a viable long-term strategy, will be catastrophic if continued much beyond 90 days (in the US iit's been around 66 days using march 11 as a starting point) and that more countries (germany, france, various US states, even italy) are starting to realize this.
Real research - ( New Window )
Blown out of proportion nonsense exposed.
Musk is a genius when it comes to EV and Rockets .. he is an idiot when it comes to other things ..
Musk downplayed COVID19 because he wanted his factory open so he could make his next Trauch of Tesla stock (650 MILLION DOLLARS)
Natesilver beaks down why experts say that coronavirus deaths in the U.S. have been undercounted. - ( New Window )
Musk is a genius when it comes to getting tons of GOVERNMENT subsidies for his EV and Rockets .. he is an idiot when it comes to other things ..
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"Swedes were primed to take voluntary recommendations seriously in a way that citizens of other nations may not be."
Too many folks point to the Swedish model with an air of 'we don't need no gov't giving us rules. We should do what we want', completely missing what the Swedish model is.
Two months in, most of the folks around here can't grasp, or willfully abuse, a simple concept of mandatory social distancing. I seriously doubt merely suggesting guidelines will result in much compliance.
i dont know if you read the full article and not just the excerpted text, but that was not the key takeaway.
the key takeaway is that a lockdown is not a viable long-term strategy, will be catastrophic if continued much beyond 90 days (in the US iit's been around 66 days using march 11 as a starting point) and that more countries (germany, france, various US states, even italy) are starting to realize this.
It's not a one size fits all problem. Have to take into account the facts about the community in which one works and lives. Obviously chances are way better in, say, most of VA than in New York City. Looks a lot like older people -- over 60, especially with one of the so-called comorbidities -- as a general matter still should stay at home to the maximum extent compatible with getting food, drugs, medical care, and gas in the car with a mask and gloves/hand cleaner, social distancing when out. (Haircuts would be great, but it's hard to see how that's going to work.) Younger people need to be freed to get back to work and should do so, taking all precautions possible while doing it. Employers have to devise and implement new and effective COVID-19 safety measures or not get those workers back. Sweden? It's is not doing so hot on case fatalities (or infection fatality scale) -- about double the recent U.S. experience. So it doesn't look to me like a model we should aspire to. Be good to get Kicker back in here on all this.
It isn't just the "economy" but our entire "culture" around the globe that is in jeopardy if we continue to live in FEAR mode.
As is, with all the money we've printed, we are likely to see a "chain reaction" around the globe which will make CORONA look like a proverbial "walk in the park" in comparison.
People will need to re-think lifestyles: eat clean, drink clean, exercise, sleep, sunlight, and the like. Dealing with mental health issues post-Corona will be a massive under-taking and there are too few resources. Here is where the church will really need to step up and help hurting souls.
Yes there needs to be some measure of protection encouraged, masks on public transportation and stores and malls. But, we need to spend more time understanding the facts about who’s at risk and how to beat protect those people. We also need to remember that this is a free country. If young people want to go to bars, that’s their business and not some kind of a public heath emergency. If you’re at risk, stay home, wear a mask and all that... yes of course. Otherwise, be prudent and considerate and smart and get on with life.
The lead story on NBC Nightly News was titled "The Deadly Risks of Opening Too Quickly", except they didn't present any data showing more infections what they said is that states are "possibly" putting the public at risk.
The same story could have been run with the focus being on things opening up to restart the economy, but instead it was premature doom and gloom. They followed it up with an interview of a British doctor who said we can expect a harsh winter with COVID not just coming back, but back with a vengeance and stronger.
It is just more lazy, biased reporting.
Too many folks point to the Swedish model with an air of 'we don't need no gov't giving us rules. We should do what we want', completely missing what the Swedish model is.
Two months in, most of the folks around here can't grasp, or willfully abuse, a simple concept of mandatory social distancing. I seriously doubt merely suggesting guidelines will result in much compliance.
That over generalization argument just plain fails the sniff test. Let’s do better in our critical thinking. There are other reasons to question the Swedish model... that’s not one of them.
I’m all for starting to slowly get back to “normal” too, I’m sick of being stuck at home. I want the economy to restart too, as smoothly as possible.
But “way overblown”? Just because this didn’t reach “absolute worst case scenario” levels of 1+ million deaths as projected doesn’t mean this was way overblown, that 1+ million scenario was if we took zero measures.
Just ridiculous how people can call this “way overblown” or “blown out of proportion nonsense”.
I get we are an unhealthy nation, and those with underlying conditions suffered from COVID, in particular the older populaton.
But no matter how healthy you are, as you get older it's common to develop issues.
We did the right thing to flatten the curve. It's debatable on how fast things should be re-opening. But over 90% of the country is on it's way.
I’m all for starting to slowly get back to “normal” too, I’m sick of being stuck at home. I want the economy to restart too, as smoothly as possible.
But “way overblown”? Just because this didn’t reach “absolute worst case scenario” levels of 1+ million deaths as projected doesn’t mean this was way overblown, that 1+ million scenario was if we took zero measures.
Just ridiculous how people can call this “way overblown” or “blown out of proportion nonsense”.
Agree. Country gets locked down and there are still 90,000 deaths. It’s literally the angel of death for nursing homes. Overblown? I think people were expecting Steven king’s stand. That said, we’re stuck with this virus and further lockdown is not feasible. Time to implement mitigation plan b.
1. Sweden has a tax rate of >50% for incomes over 40,000 (and around 57% for incomes over 70,000). Their SS tax rate is 32%, and the sales tax rate is in the 20's.
2. Sweden has a public healthcare system that is very hostile to private healthcare, both insurance and provision (meaning most employees are public).
3. Sweden is part of a culture that listens to government dictate much more readily than other, non-Nordic countries.
4. The amount of variation in population density in the U.S. (some of the highest and some of the lowest in the world) makes delivery of care non-uniform and incredibly difficult.
5. A much more "export-oriented" economy.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-tells-americans-to-prepare-for-a-very-painful-two-weeks-as-white-house-releases-extended-coronavirus-guidelines
We are at 90k through less than 3 months. And again the “Excess Deaths from All Causes” indicates that there is absolutely nothing inflated about the COVID death totals. If anything it might be slightly undercounted.
Projected to be 100k-240k deaths in total, we’re already at 90k in less than 3 months. This is going to be over 100k in a week or two and who knows where it ends up. Not to mention the potential 2nd wave in the Fall/Winter.
So the actual deaths we’ve seen are very much in line with the White House’s projections from a couple months ago. Yet this is “Overblown”? Fucking ridiculous.
Again, I want to restart the economy too. But it’s disgusting to see how many people are downplaying what has happened.
This is a fucking disaster. To dismiss it means you're probably an idiot.
This is a fucking disaster. To dismiss it means you're probably an idiot.
It's actually worse than that when you take into account the fact that the regular Flu didn't just go away. The total number of Pneumonia/Influenza deaths + COVID deaths is pretty ridiculous.
That 2018 flu season is one of the worst in recent history. The estimated number of deaths in that 2018 flu season is greater than the estimated death number of any flu season since they started tracking it in 1977. The 3rd week of 2018 was the worst week since 2013, a projected 10.9% of all deaths were related to Pneumonia/Influenza.
So in the worst week of the worst flu season in 40 years, 10.9% of all deaths were pneumonia/influenza related.
That 10.9% has been surpassed for 8 consecutive weeks with COVID added to the Pneumonia/Influnza totals. With every week in April having "PIC" account for 20%+ of deaths.
Also don't get confused by that drop for "% of deaths due to PIC" in week 20, it's due to the lag in death information. The numbers seem to be better than Mid-April, but there hasn't been some insane steep drop like that graph indicates.
This thing makes the worst flu season in 40 years look like nothing.
Yeah, the CDC has some limitations when it comes to immediate (or easy) data accessibility.
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the worst flu year in a LONG time by a LARGE margin; like, 1.5 times more than the next worst year, or 3x MORE than the average.
This is a fucking disaster. To dismiss it means you're probably an idiot.
It's actually worse than that when you take into account the fact that the regular Flu didn't just go away. The total number of Pneumonia/Influenza deaths + COVID deaths is pretty ridiculous.
That 2018 flu season is one of the worst in recent history. The estimated number of deaths in that 2018 flu season is greater than the estimated death number of any flu season since they started tracking it in 1977. The 3rd week of 2018 was the worst week since 2013, a projected 10.9% of all deaths were related to Pneumonia/Influenza.
So in the worst week of the worst flu season in 40 years, 10.9% of all deaths were pneumonia/influenza related.
That 10.9% has been surpassed for 8 consecutive weeks with COVID added to the Pneumonia/Influnza totals. With every week in April having "PIC" account for 20%+ of deaths.
Also don't get confused by that drop for "% of deaths due to PIC" in week 20, it's due to the lag in death information. The numbers seem to be better than Mid-April, but there hasn't been some insane steep drop like that graph indicates.
This thing makes the worst flu season in 40 years look like nothing.
Great chart/numbers. Gratitude. And, by the way, every time I hear the word Sweden in this context I head for alcohol. Kicker, thanks, too, for your Sweden summary. What an odd country it seems to be. Ingmar Bergman told us more about it than its numbers do. Now we get Greta Thunberg instead.
7. In the US , median household income is about 44,000. Per capita consumer spending is about 37,000. The comparable numbers for Sweden are 50,000 and 21,000. We are much more consumer driven, which means any small loss in consumer spending will have multiplicative effects.
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the worst flu year in a LONG time by a LARGE margin; like, 1.5 times more than the next worst year, or 3x MORE than the average.
This is a fucking disaster. To dismiss it means you're probably an idiot.
It's actually worse than that when you take into account the fact that the regular Flu didn't just go away. The total number of Pneumonia/Influenza deaths + COVID deaths is pretty ridiculous.
That 2018 flu season is one of the worst in recent history. The estimated number of deaths in that 2018 flu season is greater than the estimated death number of any flu season since they started tracking it in 1977. The 3rd week of 2018 was the worst week since 2013, a projected 10.9% of all deaths were related to Pneumonia/Influenza.
So in the worst week of the worst flu season in 40 years, 10.9% of all deaths were pneumonia/influenza related.
That 10.9% has been surpassed for 8 consecutive weeks with COVID added to the Pneumonia/Influnza totals. With every week in April having "PIC" account for 20%+ of deaths.
Also don't get confused by that drop for "% of deaths due to PIC" in week 20, it's due to the lag in death information. The numbers seem to be better than Mid-April, but there hasn't been some insane steep drop like that graph indicates.
This thing makes the worst flu season in 40 years look like nothing.
Respectively, because I love your handle and you’ve made great football observations over the years - you need to learn how to read charts. 3x as kicker said Is a worst case read on what you posted. Not that what kicker said was wrong, but your chart didn’t support the case
I guess I was responding to the "1.5x worse than the worst flu season" part of kicker's post more than the "3x worse than the average flu" part.
For example, during the 3rd week of 2018 I cited above as the worst week of the worst flu season in 40 years, 10.9% of deaths from all causes were coded as "Pneumonia/Influenza". The epidemic threshold for that week according to the CDC was 7.6%. So for that week, the percent of deaths above the epidemic threshold was 3.3% (10.9% - 7.6%).
During the week ending April 11th this year, 26.3% of all deaths were "PIC" related and the epidemic threshold was 7.1%, which would be 19.2% above the epidemic threshold.
The CDC data is still coming in for these weeks and it is still incomplete, the % of deaths coded as "PIC" will get even higher as the data becomes more complete (based on what I've seen by looking at the CDC website almost daily for a month now). Below is an updated list of all the weeks since 2014 where the % of PIC deaths has been over 1% above the epidemic threshold.
% of Influenza/Pneumonia/COVID deaths above epidemic threshold (data since 2014)
2020 (week 16): +19.5%
2020 (week 15): +19.2%
2020 (week 14): +13.9%
2020 (week 13): +6.0%
2020 (week 12): +1.8%
2018 (week 08): +1.5%
2018 (week 07): +2.0%
2018 (week 06): +2.0%
2018 (week 05): +2.5%
2018 (week 04): +3.0%
2018 (week 03): +3.3% (Worst week in worst flu season in 40 years)
2018 (week 02): +3.0%
2018 (week 01): +2.1%
2015 (week 04): +1.0%
2015 (week 03): +1.6%
2015 (week 02): +2.3%
2015 (week 01): +2.5%
2014 (week 53): +2.0%
2014 (week 04): +1.3%
2014 (week 03): +1.6%
2014 (week 02): +1.5%
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/
The point of this is that the flu accounting for 1% more deaths than the epidemic threshold in a given week is rare. The flu accounting for 3% more deaths than the epidemic threshold is literally historic. 15%? 20%? For multiple weeks? These numbers are alien.
This country and economy are built on assumptions made from projections and estimates. As dark as it sounds to make it so mathematical, this includes deaths in a given year with the flu taken into account. Even in a historically bad flu season, 3% of people dying more than the epidemic threshold for a couple of weeks will impact the formula/projections but not by that much. 15% above the epidemic threshold for multiple weeks? You're talking about shitting all over the "formula" and making projections and estimates from before the pandemic useless, forcing the country (and world) as a whole into a very uncertain position.
So even if the total number of deaths so far is "only" 1.5-3x worse than the seasonal flu, it is orders of magnitude worse when you compare it in terms of expected deaths. Like how 100mph winds are technically 2.5x worse than 40mph winds but in reality it's exponentially more dangerous.
We're a spoiled, impatient nation and we're going to pay the price of massive death and still have economic ruin. Worst of both worlds.
I’m all for starting to slowly get back to “normal” too, I’m sick of being stuck at home. I want the economy to restart too, as smoothly as possible.
But “way overblown”? Just because this didn’t reach “absolute worst case scenario” levels of 1+ million deaths as projected doesn’t mean this was way overblown, that 1+ million scenario was if we took zero measures.
Just ridiculous how people can call this “way overblown” or “blown out of proportion nonsense”.
Quote:
Is “Way Overblown”?
I’m all for starting to slowly get back to “normal” too, I’m sick of being stuck at home. I want the economy to restart too, as smoothly as possible.
But “way overblown”? Just because this didn’t reach “absolute worst case scenario” levels of 1+ million deaths as projected doesn’t mean this was way overblown, that 1+ million scenario was if we took zero measures.
Just ridiculous how people can call this “way overblown” or “blown out of proportion nonsense”.
This is a big country. During that time period, we had 150,000 cancer deaths and 450,000 cancer diagnoses. Another 150,000 died of heart disease and 45,000 in unintentional accidents. And none of these are going away with summer weather and masks. Keep things in perspective.
I don't understand your point.
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In comment 14905555 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
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Is “Way Overblown”?
I’m all for starting to slowly get back to “normal” too, I’m sick of being stuck at home. I want the economy to restart too, as smoothly as possible.
But “way overblown”? Just because this didn’t reach “absolute worst case scenario” levels of 1+ million deaths as projected doesn’t mean this was way overblown, that 1+ million scenario was if we took zero measures.
Just ridiculous how people can call this “way overblown” or “blown out of proportion nonsense”.
This is a big country. During that time period, we had 150,000 cancer deaths and 450,000 cancer diagnoses. Another 150,000 died of heart disease and 45,000 in unintentional accidents. And none of these are going away with summer weather and masks. Keep things in perspective.
I don't understand your point.
Seriously I don't understand what this has to do with covid19 related deaths? Last time I checked I couldn't leave my house and contract cancer and heart disease.
This risk will change with locations and behavior.
How much impact this new reality has will be up to us. The original purpose of these social distance methods was to keep the healthcare system functioning. It was not to eradicate the risk of the virus. I think this is lost on many.
This is a big country. During that time period, we had 150,000 cancer deaths and 450,000 cancer diagnoses. Another 150,000 died of heart disease and 45,000 in unintentional accidents. And none of these are going away with summer weather and masks. Keep things in perspective.
I don't understand your point.
Their point is "the deaths aren't a big deal, people die from tons of things."
I can only assume they've lost nothing in their life but the ability to eat at a restaurant during this pandemic.
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In comment 14905746 HomerJones45 said:
This is a big country. During that time period, we had 150,000 cancer deaths and 450,000 cancer diagnoses. Another 150,000 died of heart disease and 45,000 in unintentional accidents. And none of these are going away with summer weather and masks. Keep things in perspective.
I don't understand your point.
Their point is "the deaths aren't a big deal, people die from tons of things."
I can only assume they've lost nothing in their life but the ability to eat at a restaurant during this pandemic.
Not defending what he said..
But some people view this as saying they could die from anything at anytime and are not going to live their life in fear. My father in law said it a couple of days ago, he was staying home not going anywhere, but he woke up the other day and basically said he could die of a heaet attack tomorrow he is not living in fear..
A lot of people think like this, live every day like their last
Now, per the New York Times, the NYC area is doubling every 126 days.
The data doesn't match up exactly, but still indicates the way social distancing, quarantines, and shelters in place have slowed the rate of infection in the area dramatically.
Using current absolute totals of Covid deaths and comparing it to cancer or heart disease as "perspective" is-- to put it charitably-- an unfortunate misunderstanding of the dangers of this virus.
The New York Times data was taken from their resource here, which shows many different ways to track the data county by county.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html - ( New Window )
If cancer or heart disease were highly contagious, does anyone think we would treat them exactly the same way we do now?
Now, per the New York Times, the NYC area is doubling every 126 days.
The data doesn't match up exactly, but still indicates the way social distancing, quarantines, and shelters in place have slowed the rate of infection in the area dramatically.
Using current absolute totals of Covid deaths and comparing it to cancer or heart disease as "perspective" is-- to put it charitably-- an unfortunate misunderstanding of the dangers of this virus.
The New York Times data was taken from their resource here, which shows many different ways to track the data county by county.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html - ( New Window )
Doubling rate, really? If the doubling rate had continued at 2-3 days the numbers would be huge. Can we actually prove that the main reason is social distancing? How does it compare to past pandemic doubling rates? How does it compare to the doubling rates in countries that didn't social distance?
We really don't even know how many people have contracted it, when they may have contracted it or where they contracted it for the most part. We are using data that is so incomplete with variable testing growth over time that any exercise to analyze it would require assumptions that cannot be proven.
Look up about 10 posts.
Maryland barely started Phase 1, yet people and businesses have already messed that up to the point that the local and state governments have already issued a public warning.
In my subdivision alone, while my wife and I were walking with our kids, we walked by another culdesac where they were having a damn block party with 40-50 people (and it appeared many weren't even from my neighborhood based on the number of cars I don't recognize parked along the street) all mingling around without masks like it was any other summer day. And they knew they messed up because I heard that when the police showed up later, everyone scattered like damn ants.
We don't have any discipline or think beyond our immediate lives to get this pandemic response to work efficiently.
If cancer or heart disease were highly contagious, does anyone think we would treat them exactly the same way we do now?
You make a valid point but we continue to allow public transportation because the essential people need to get to work. I believe public transportation has to be one of the largest spreaders, where contact tracing can be enormously difficult, but fak those essential people.
We told people not to go to work and to deviate from their normal routines. Places that are open are getting huge amounts of foot traffic, grocery stores, MY liquor stores, ice cream/food stands ect. People are not staying home and it is almost impossible to contact trace. Trying to corn teen non sick people is a joke.
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heart disease or cancer or diabetes or obesity from someone nearby in a restaurant or on mass transit who may not even know they are sick. They also cannot then pass those ailments on to multiple people, possibly unknowingly. That's sort of a big difference in the comparisons to other leading forms of mortality.
If cancer or heart disease were highly contagious, does anyone think we would treat them exactly the same way we do now?
You make a valid point but we continue to allow public transportation because the essential people need to get to work. I believe public transportation has to be one of the largest spreaders, where contact tracing can be enormously difficult, but fak those essential people.
We told people not to go to work and to deviate from their normal routines. Places that are open are getting huge amounts of foot traffic, grocery stores, MY liquor stores, ice cream/food stands ect. People are not staying home and it is almost impossible to contact trace. Trying to corn teen non sick people is a joke.
yes it's such a joke that the growth curves have significantly changed in virtually every US state and country worldwide who has implemented some version of social distancing.
why do you think hospitalizations and deaths are mostly on the decline?
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at its peak, New York City had a doubling rate of about every 2-3 days.
Now, per the New York Times, the NYC area is doubling every 126 days.
The data doesn't match up exactly, but still indicates the way social distancing, quarantines, and shelters in place have slowed the rate of infection in the area dramatically.
Using current absolute totals of Covid deaths and comparing it to cancer or heart disease as "perspective" is-- to put it charitably-- an unfortunate misunderstanding of the dangers of this virus.
The New York Times data was taken from their resource here, which shows many different ways to track the data county by county.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html - ( New Window )
Doubling rate, really? If the doubling rate had continued at 2-3 days the numbers would be huge. Can we actually prove that the main reason is social distancing? How does it compare to past pandemic doubling rates? How does it compare to the doubling rates in countries that didn't social distance?
We really don't even know how many people have contracted it, when they may have contracted it or where they contracted it for the most part. We are using data that is so incomplete with variable testing growth over time that any exercise to analyze it would require assumptions that cannot be proven.
Dabru, are you a dupe? May 2020 origination is a bit convenient to just start launching contrarian takes.
It's fair to question data, want to validate studies, compare to other modalities. But to throw your hands up and say "I can cherry pick any data I want to make any point and so who knows if the Coronavirus is even a big deal" is contrived false equivalence.
There are plenty of studies being done as we speak showing the positive effects on social distancing and other measures to slow the spread. I'm not sure where you're getting your opposing data from.
But even then, all you are arguing is that Type I error is larger than the existing studies, which have found that social distancing policies HAVE been effective, is maybe higher.
So, we can believe in two separate outcomes: (i) social distancing was effective in slowing the rate of growth (one estimate has it 35x if no policies were put into place); and (ii) the marginal impact of social distancing policies is fading over time, so to open we need deliberate (and smart) steps.
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In comment 14905784 Eric on Li said:
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yes it's such a joke that the growth curves have significantly changed in virtually every US state and country worldwide who has implemented some version of social distancing.
why do you think hospitalizations and deaths are mostly on the decline?
I don't know why, but my comment was on quarantining of healthy people and not all versions of social distancing.
I personally think the largest contributor is people being conscious of the threat, the basic things we are more careful of during peak flu season: washing hands, not touching face, keeping reasonable distance especially when speaking.
1. Crowded venues (movie theatres, concerts, sporting events).
2. Don't work well when inebriated (bars, nightclubs, ...).
3. Are only followed for very small periods of time, and have been shown to not last for longer periods of time.
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In comment 14905781 PaulBlakeTSU said:
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at its peak, New York City had a doubling rate of about every 2-3 days.
Now, per the New York Times, the NYC area is doubling every 126 days.
The data doesn't match up exactly, but still indicates the way social distancing, quarantines, and shelters in place have slowed the rate of infection in the area dramatically.
Using current absolute totals of Covid deaths and comparing it to cancer or heart disease as "perspective" is-- to put it charitably-- an unfortunate misunderstanding of the dangers of this virus.
The New York Times data was taken from their resource here, which shows many different ways to track the data county by county.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html - ( New Window )
Doubling rate, really? If the doubling rate had continued at 2-3 days the numbers would be huge. Can we actually prove that the main reason is social distancing? How does it compare to past pandemic doubling rates? How does it compare to the doubling rates in countries that didn't social distance?
We really don't even know how many people have contracted it, when they may have contracted it or where they contracted it for the most part. We are using data that is so incomplete with variable testing growth over time that any exercise to analyze it would require assumptions that cannot be proven.
Dabru, are you a dupe? May 2020 origination is a bit convenient to just start launching contrarian takes.
It's fair to question data, want to validate studies, compare to other modalities. But to throw your hands up and say "I can cherry pick any data I want to make any point and so who knows if the Coronavirus is even a big deal" is contrived false equivalence.
There are plenty of studies being done as we speak showing the positive effects on social distancing and other measures to slow the spread. I'm not sure where you're getting your opposing data from.
First, I want to thank you for all the time you have spent in this thread along with the links and information you have provided. I go to many places for information and BBI has some great posters.
I once had an account here as PittGmanDan , or something like that, was from the 03/07 class. I stopped logging in around the time the password hack happened, in fact I just received a phishing email last week threatening to release video of me masturbating to porn because they had hacked my PC using that old password which was stolen from here.
I am not citing any opposing data and I firmly believe common sense social distancing is slowing the spread, but people have different opinions on what that entails. Our country, and world, have become so polarized that it is difficult to trust and not be suspicious of agendas from either side.
What is our goal though? This is where we need consensus first.
Local police showed up, said they were in violation of the executive order, but then told them to have a nice day.
Will be interesting to see what the governor and state police do in response to this.
Hard not to see this and think about the ersatz "obey the law" mantra spewed by this group in other contexts.
This is likely a common story in the tri-state but my wife's grandmother just tested positive this weekend along with several others even though the facility she's in has been on lock down. She's 99 so it is what it is, but the point is this thing is incredibly contagious and hard to stop - that's why it's impacting the entire world. And here our testing/tracing is lacking to such a degree that we can't even regularly test healthcare workers who are caring for those who are high risk and immobile.
Social distancing is a blunt tool but it has so far proven to make a positive impact (though obviously we need to start finding ways to make it less blunt and smartly reopen through the various phasing). Key word being smartly because the worst thing that we could do is regress any progress made to this point. Ignoring the role social distancing has played around the world to this point and dismissing all that's been learned over the past few months doesn't seem smart.
It may be effective in countries where worker protections are much more robust (or far too robust), but no one has ever satisfactorily answered those questions.
Maryland barely started Phase 1, yet people and businesses have already messed that up to the point that the local and state governments have already issued a public warning.
In my subdivision alone, while my wife and I were walking with our kids, we walked by another culdesac where they were having a damn block party with 40-50 people (and it appeared many weren't even from my neighborhood based on the number of cars I don't recognize parked along the street) all mingling around without masks like it was any other summer day. And they knew they messed up because I heard that when the police showed up later, everyone scattered like damn ants.
We don't have any discipline or think beyond our immediate lives to get this pandemic response to work efficiently.
That’s disappointing to hear. In my area of Maryland, folks are exceptionally cautious (to the point that I was admonished by two 75 year old men a few weeks ago for not wearing a mask while hiking on a lightly used trail in the forest with my 4 year old). Part of me wanted to reply snottily — but it’s really not that big of a deal to tie a bandanna around your neck for use when needed ... I think it shows solidarity, really. So, I said, you’re right gentlemen, and I’m not leaving home without one now.
My personal views on the whole thing fall somewhere in the middle of both extremes (apocalypse vs hoax) ... but since we’ve already made our bed in our approach, and thus caused so much economic suffering in the process, I think it’s patriotic and human to do everything possible to support the plan and keep the numbers as low as possible so that folks can get back to work ASAP. It’s not a great sacrifice to show solidarity.
This is likely a common story in the tri-state but my wife's grandmother just tested positive this weekend along with several others even though the facility she's in has been on lock down. She's 99 so it is what it is, but the point is this thing is incredibly contagious and hard to stop - that's why it's impacting the entire world. And here our testing/tracing is lacking to such a degree that we can't even regularly test healthcare workers who are caring for those who are high risk and immobile.
Social distancing is a blunt tool but it has so far proven to make a positive impact (though obviously we need to start finding ways to make it less blunt and smartly reopen through the various phasing). Key word being smartly because the worst thing that we could do is regress any progress made to this point. Ignoring the role social distancing has played around the world to this point and dismissing all that's been learned over the past few months doesn't seem smart.
Typically excellent post. I admire your tenacity on this thread. Also extremely helpful and continually informative.
1. Crowded venues (movie theatres, concerts, sporting events).
2. Don't work well when inebriated (bars, nightclubs, ...).
3. Are only followed for very small periods of time, and have been shown to not last for longer periods of time.
All true. Some forced social distancing was required but around here in Massachusetts the places you have listed have been replaced by Walmart, Home Depot, Ice Cream/Food Stands, and liquor stores. The last on the list messes with #2 on your list.
The restrictions have actually but the people I am closest with at more risk.
While grocery spending is 12-percent higher, the reductions elsewhere suggest that, on net, total contact is significantly lower, suggesting that most people are less at risk. Which we have achieved.
So yes, some groups COULD be at more risk, but on net, it's much lower nationwide.
In comment 14905987 Jim from Katonah said:
While grocery spending is 12-percent higher, the reductions elsewhere suggest that, on net, total contact is significantly lower, suggesting that most people are less at risk. Which we have achieved.
So yes, some groups COULD be at more risk, but on net, it's much lower nationwide.
That is all well and good unless you are the one who is more are risk.
There is plenty of evidence that consumers were already altering their behavior, and quite significantly. Grocery stores and home improvement stores probably would have seen a small uptick (maybe not as big), but the risks still would have been there.
Shelter-in-place and other equivalent policies were and are necessary; all states except MA and CT have started to re-open (at different points), but we are likely to see heightened grocery store volume as restaurants will likely be limited to a fraction of their old capacity.
In comment 14905987 Jim from Katonah said:
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I think it’s patriotic and human to do everything possible to support the plan and keep the numbers as low as possible so that folks can get back to work ASAP. It’s not a great sacrifice to show solidarity.
I’m usually a ridiculously optimistic person — to the point of well-deserved ridicule actually lol. But lately I’ve had a faint sense of dread about our society ... community ... country. Is there still a sense of shared sacrifice? My 93 year old mother grew up poor, in the Bronx, in the age of the Great Depression and WWII, and lived through real food shortages, the Draft, and decades of sky high taxes ... all pretty much willingly accepted as part of building and strengthening this goddamn great thing that is the US. Somewhere along the line “shared sacrifice“ has become synonymous with “infringement on freedom” — and it seems to get worse with every passing year.
I don’t know where I’m going with this ... just venting a bit ... still lots of great people and community in our country ... it just bums me out that things feel so divided that wearing a stupid bandanna is seen as a capitulation.
There is plenty of evidence that consumers were already altering their behavior, and quite significantly. Grocery stores and home improvement stores probably would have seen a small uptick (maybe not as big), but the risks still would have been there.
Shelter-in-place and other equivalent policies were and are necessary; all states except MA and CT have started to re-open (at different points), but we are likely to see heightened grocery store volume as restaurants will likely be limited to a fraction of their old capacity.
If i'm remembering correctly there are a few stats that back this up - I believe Florida and Georgia's opentable reservations were both down something like 90% YoY before they implemented their policies and then remained similarly down even after those policies were lifted. So that would make it appear most people are taking social distancing seriously apart from whatever policies are implemented.
Standing by for incoming "if the policies don't matter just open everything up" reply.
1. Racial wealth inequality that has largely plateaued.
2. Rising income inequality amongst whites, which suggest that poor, rural, white America is suffering (and we have ignored them as much as we have ignored racial minorities over time).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GINIWAF
3. A generation (millenials) that, while more educated than their parents, are likely to have lower income levels.
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that we didn't shut down the economy.
There is plenty of evidence that consumers were already altering their behavior, and quite significantly. Grocery stores and home improvement stores probably would have seen a small uptick (maybe not as big), but the risks still would have been there.
Shelter-in-place and other equivalent policies were and are necessary; all states except MA and CT have started to re-open (at different points), but we are likely to see heightened grocery store volume as restaurants will likely be limited to a fraction of their old capacity.
If i'm remembering correctly there are a few stats that back this up - I believe Florida and Georgia's opentable reservations were both down something like 90% YoY before they implemented their policies and then remained similarly down even after those policies were lifted. So that would make it appear most people are taking social distancing seriously apart from whatever policies are implemented.
Standing by for incoming "if the policies don't matter just open everything up" reply.
OpenTable stats back it up; I would imagine sales tax receipts (though not available for data) would back it up.
But even taking a cursory glance at unemployment benefits claims, there is little to no difference between states that have opened up (or stayed "more" open) and states that didn't.
4. The feeling by younger generations that they are going to have to pay for the profligacy of some of the "greater generations", through lack of savings and shitty policies put into place either before we were born, or when we had limited understanding (when children).
Given that we also live in a world where we ship cheap shit to us (and that fuels our economy), how do you think the economy would have been when imports of foreign goods are down because supply-chains are disrupted in developing countries?
So, this whole notion that the policies are the proximate cause of "economic destruction", and that we would not have seen a proportionate reduction in economic activity had we done nothing (mind you, with a significant rise in cases and deaths had we undertaken business as usual) is stupid. Absolutely fucking idiotic.
Not my generation that has fucked up the long-term prospects of our economy...
I’m usually a ridiculously optimistic person — to the point of well-deserved ridicule actually lol. But lately I’ve had a faint sense of dread about our society ... community ... country. Is there still a sense of shared sacrifice? My 93 year old mother grew up poor, in the Bronx, in the age of the Great Depression and WWII, and lived through real food shortages, the Draft, and decades of sky high taxes ... all pretty much willingly accepted as part of building and strengthening this goddamn great thing that is the US. Somewhere along the line “shared sacrifice“ has become synonymous with “infringement on freedom” — and it seems to get worse with every passing year.
I don’t know where I’m going with this ... just venting a bit ... still lots of great people and community in our country ... it just bums me out that things feel so divided that wearing a stupid bandanna is seen as a capitulation.
I'm also generally an optimistic but on this i'm split. On the optimistic side I think younger generations get a very bad rap and although in some cases misguided, there's a very strong desire to "make a positive impact" and "do something meaningful". Everyone loves to joke about avocado toast and living in their parent's basements, but they are also a generation that's gone through difficult economic challenges and shouldered a lot of the post 9/11 combat burden over the past 2 decades. Jmo but 1 of the best positives coming out of this would be some kind of renewed investment in service opportunities here (and onshoring critical tasks) because there's more than enough on the list of things we could stand to fix up.
On the pessimistic side we are more divided than ever because we are more impressionable than ever and there are more bad actors able to easily pull those levers than ever (both foreign and domestic). And I have no idea how we unscramble that egg.
Local police showed up, said they were in violation of the executive order, but then told them to have a nice day.
Will be interesting to see what the governor and state police do in response to this.
Hard not to see this and think about the ersatz "obey the law" mantra spewed by this group in other contexts.
Are we at the point where we're just blanketing congregations with accusatory labels?
NBC Philadelphia on NJ Gym Reopening - ( New Window )
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I’m usually a ridiculously optimistic person — to the point of well-deserved ridicule actually lol. But lately I’ve had a faint sense of dread about our society ... community ... country. Is there still a sense of shared sacrifice? My 93 year old mother grew up poor, in the Bronx, in the age of the Great Depression and WWII, and lived through real food shortages, the Draft, and decades of sky high taxes ... all pretty much willingly accepted as part of building and strengthening this goddamn great thing that is the US. Somewhere along the line “shared sacrifice“ has become synonymous with “infringement on freedom” — and it seems to get worse with every passing year.
I don’t know where I’m going with this ... just venting a bit ... still lots of great people and community in our country ... it just bums me out that things feel so divided that wearing a stupid bandanna is seen as a capitulation.
I'm also generally an optimistic but on this i'm split. On the optimistic side I think younger generations get a very bad rap and although in some cases misguided, there's a very strong desire to "make a positive impact" and "do something meaningful". Everyone loves to joke about avocado toast and living in their parent's basements, but they are also a generation that's gone through difficult economic challenges and shouldered a lot of the post 9/11 combat burden over the past 2 decades. Jmo but 1 of the best positives coming out of this would be some kind of renewed investment in service opportunities here (and onshoring critical tasks) because there's more than enough on the list of things we could stand to fix up.
On the pessimistic side we are more divided than ever because we are more impressionable than ever and there are more bad actors able to easily pull those levers than ever (both foreign and domestic). And I have no idea how we unscramble that egg.
Well said.
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and white supremacists congregated outside a gym in Bellmawr, NJ, as Fox News celebrates the gym owners reopening of their gym in defiance of the executive order.
Local police showed up, said they were in violation of the executive order, but then told them to have a nice day.
Will be interesting to see what the governor and state police do in response to this.
Hard not to see this and think about the ersatz "obey the law" mantra spewed by this group in other contexts.
Wait, did I miss something? How do you know these folks are white supremacists? I just googled the incident that you mentioned and the first video sourced includes a black man. I don't see any indication of a race angle at play here.
Are we at the point where we're just blanketing congregations with accusatory labels? NBC Philadelphia on NJ Gym Reopening - ( New Window )
You missed something. There was a group there carry 3 Percenter flags (and Trump flags because of course). There may well have been unrelated non-white supremacists there. But the alt-right was certainly there...
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In comment 14905966 PaulBlakeTSU said:
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and white supremacists congregated outside a gym in Bellmawr, NJ, as Fox News celebrates the gym owners reopening of their gym in defiance of the executive order.
Local police showed up, said they were in violation of the executive order, but then told them to have a nice day.
Will be interesting to see what the governor and state police do in response to this.
Hard not to see this and think about the ersatz "obey the law" mantra spewed by this group in other contexts.
Wait, did I miss something? How do you know these folks are white supremacists? I just googled the incident that you mentioned and the first video sourced includes a black man. I don't see any indication of a race angle at play here.
Are we at the point where we're just blanketing congregations with accusatory labels? NBC Philadelphia on NJ Gym Reopening - ( New Window )
You missed something. There was a group there carry 3 Percenter flags (and Trump flags because of course). There may well have been unrelated non-white supremacists there. But the alt-right was certainly there...
opentable data shows the drop off at the end of February, before that.
China (and other countries) shut down their economies long before that.
Japan cancelled schools in February.
For as much talk there is about Sweden, I believe they recommended closing their upper schools before we did.
US policy decisions seem to have an overinflated sense of control on economic impacts that were being felt before the policies were even put in place.
You missed something. There was a group there carry 3 Percenter flags (and Trump flags because of course). There may well have been unrelated non-white supremacists there. But the alt-right was certainly there...
Is the 3 Percenter flag associated with racist intent? Hard to keep track of all of these fringe groups and what they stand for. I just assume that there are idiots of all colors, creeds, and backgrounds
Yes. It is. The group was, shockingly, formed in 2008. I wonder what happened that year to make a bunch of racist gun whores want to start a little club...
On the soft data front you have current conditions from U Mich consumer confidence and Empire Mfg Index picking up with solid employment and new order patterns. Also a very strong bounce in consumer, manufacturing, and NFIB expectations. TSA checkpoint activity has been picking up, hotel RevPars improving, mortgage apps increasing, and business applications solidly improving. Hours worked for small businesses also stemming losses.
I think we've just about passed the bottom but that'll be dependent on any subsequent waves, intermediate-term solvency issues, and fiscal policy. Ironically, improvement in the capital markets and any economic data will diminish the will of policymakers on the Hill to do what's likely optimal. Wouldn't surprise me to see another episode of "S&P vigilantism" in the summer to keep policymakers on their toes.
Debunked time and time again, by both sides of the aisle
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In comment 14906074 Chris in Philly said:
You missed something. There was a group there carry 3 Percenter flags (and Trump flags because of course). There may well have been unrelated non-white supremacists there. But the alt-right was certainly there...
Is the 3 Percenter flag associated with racist intent? Hard to keep track of all of these fringe groups and what they stand for. I just assume that there are idiots of all colors, creeds, and backgrounds
Yes. It is. The group was, shockingly, formed in 2008. I wonder what happened that year to make a bunch of racist gun whores want to start a little club...
Is it really or is it just your perception of the group?
Debunked time and time again, by both sides of the aisle
Give me a fucking break.
Where I think a few more "consulting" economists are coming around to my point of view is in the timeline of the recovery. With social distancing policies likely to remain in place at a variety of venues, there is likely to only be slow growth back to normal. And given FIRE and Food/Accomodation to GDP (about 25-percent)
It's not going to be a "V", especially given how many people are still on continued unemployment claims. And the absolute destruction of any semblance of financial security for individuals who make less than $40,000, given that is about a third of families.
On another note, I was speaking to CEO's of some major ag companies. They are less optimistic, even though their "grocery" business is booming, because of certain dips in sales of things that a lot of consumers considered "luxuries". Nuts, specialty fruits and veggies, pre-blended smoothies, etc. That's taken a huge domestic hit.
is commercial real estate in as much trouble as it seems? Big box retailers have already been struggling for a while, malls are going to get hit, a % of small biz in other sectors won't make it through, and cherry on top everyone will now be more likely to allow remote workers making it easy to scale back on office space. That seems like a lot of very bad factors all at once...
Debunked time and time again, by both sides of the aisle
You're out of your element, here.
"Very fine people on both sides" was said. It's not a hoax, not fake news, not debunked, not a deep fake. Two days after the murder of Heather Heyer, the President referred to "very fine people on both sides." He separated out the Unite the Right neo-Nazis and white supremacists who were chanting "Jews will not replace us" and "Blood and soil" and was referring to just the people there to protest the removal of the R.E. Lee statue in McIntire Park. Those people, just there for the statue, were the "very fine people."
That it took him two full days to even call out the white supremacists and neo-Nazis is its own egregious behavior. In fact, in his immediate remarks the day of, he instead only said that " We condemn in the strongest possible terms this egregious display of hatred, bigotry and violence on many sides, on many sides."
TO which I say "fuck that." From the jump he made an equivalence between the actions of both sides and only after 48 hours of pressure did he condemn Nazis. And then, when he did, he still made an equivalence.
But back to the non-Nazi, "very fine people." Just because he was referring to the non-Nazis doesn't mean the people he was referring to were "very fine people."
If you are protesting an event and your interest align with a mass showing of armed neo-nazis, rethink your point. I would also point out that these "Very fine people" people were protesting the removal of a cheap statue erected as part of a mass movement by United Daughters of the Confederacy in the early 1900s during the Jim Crow era. They were not pre-war or even post-war relics. They were arguably erected as a symbol of beliefs held at the time-- similar to the beliefs held by those who wave Confederate flags at protests in Michigan-- a VERY pro-union state.
What makes those confederate-flag loving, vice-signaling protesters "Very fine people"?
Now, with ALL that said, you'll notice that in my comment, I wrote
in which, I, separated out the white supremacists with their 3% flag. I didn't call them all white supremacists. But, like many of the people who showed up and trashed my beloved Charlottesville, I wouldn't call the rest of them "very fine people."
The non white supremacists here (the ones not with 3% flag) included many people not wearing masks in close quarters (what if they are asymptomatic carriers?) and I believe were shouting "War" if New Jersey shut them down.
And, they were promoting and encouraging lawlessness.
So take your lazy, low-information bullshit elsewhere.
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Given FIRE and Food/Accomodation, it is likely a slog back to normalcy, given how hard restaurants/bars/hotels will struggle on smaller margins, but with heightened costs and restrictions. Wouldn't surprise me that hotels are hit hard, and AirBNB (and others) fill the void, especially if you're willing to consider fewer footprints in those areas.
is commercial real estate in as much trouble as it seems? Big box retailers have already been struggling for a while, malls are going to get hit, a % of small biz in other sectors won't make it through, and cherry on top everyone will now be more likely to allow remote workers making it easy to scale back on office space. That seems like a lot of very bad factors all at once...
It's a little hard to parse out the impacts on commercial real estate. They are trying very hard to make it sound like it's not that big of a hit, but I can't see how not.
Commercial foot prints will fall, etc.
The ones who MAY be OK are places that can potentially transition to partially outside venues (maybe less viral spread outdoors?) and who can maybe get rezoned for more manufacturing/distribution/production.
But yeah; a lot of strip malls are going to have "for rent" signs for quite a while.
Q4 office vacancy rates were about 10%, while retail was about 9%.
Then, beyond that, if work-from-home becomes more of a thing, do people try to transition commercial spaces to residential (or something else), which could help depress residential rates in higher cost cities?
There are lots of moving pieces that could really transform our way of life.
Then, beyond that, if work-from-home becomes more of a thing, do people try to transition commercial spaces to residential (or something else), which could help depress residential rates in higher cost cities?
There are lots of moving pieces that could really transform our way of life.
If there was an investment vehicle for 'suburbs' I'd 100% be in it (and I was literally just trying to think of proxies before seeing your post).
The pendulum swung towards cities for a long time and seemed to do so to an unsustainable degree, now there will be a vastly increased flexibility to get more for your money with less concern for a brutal commute.
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If people work from home more, will you see a flight back to suburbia? What impact does that have on highly dense urban areas?
Then, beyond that, if work-from-home becomes more of a thing, do people try to transition commercial spaces to residential (or something else), which could help depress residential rates in higher cost cities?
There are lots of moving pieces that could really transform our way of life.
If there was an investment vehicle for 'suburbs' I'd 100% be in it (and I was literally just trying to think of proxies before seeing your post).
The pendulum swung towards cities for a long time and seemed to do so to an unsustainable degree, now there will be a vastly increased flexibility to get more for your money with less concern for a brutal commute.
There had been the thought that the % of 25-34 year olds living with their parents had peaked, household formation had picked up, and the wealth effect would prompt millennial home buying but we'll see how those trends hold up post-COVID.
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In comment 14906080 BurberryManning said:
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In comment 14906074 Chris in Philly said:
You missed something. There was a group there carry 3 Percenter flags (and Trump flags because of course). There may well have been unrelated non-white supremacists there. But the alt-right was certainly there...
Is the 3 Percenter flag associated with racist intent? Hard to keep track of all of these fringe groups and what they stand for. I just assume that there are idiots of all colors, creeds, and backgrounds
Yes. It is. The group was, shockingly, formed in 2008. I wonder what happened that year to make a bunch of racist gun whores want to start a little club...
Is it really or is it just your perception of the group?
5 minutes on Google, or even 30 second on Wikipedia if you're really lazy, could give you all the answers you need, pal.
Even if prices started dropping now given the econony, I'm not sure I want to catch a falling knife.
Just feels a lot better to hold onto cash and see what Phase 4 of all this looks like. If remote work and flexible work becomes more common, then the utility and value of a shorter commute drops.
I wonder if his personal doctor will hold a briefing on it.
He's still working on stuffing the light bulb up his ass.
I wonder if his personal doctor will hold a briefing on it.
University of Minnesota has been running concurrent trials on HCQ prevention and treatment of COVID. It took a 3rd interim analysis a couple of weeks back and rumors that the full analysis might be released within the next couple of weeks. The optimists are hoping it might show that HCQ could reduce the chances of getting COVID by 25-30% after contact with a known patient. We'll see...
We have seen a slowdown, but still massively high numbers.
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Trump claims that he has been taking taking hydroxychloroquine and zinc for a few weeks now as a preventative measure.
I wonder if his personal doctor will hold a briefing on it.
University of Minnesota has been running concurrent trials on HCQ prevention and treatment of COVID. It took a 3rd interim analysis a couple of weeks back and rumors that the full analysis might be released within the next couple of weeks. The optimists are hoping it might show that HCQ could reduce the chances of getting COVID by 25-30% after contact with a known patient. We'll see...
And sadly if true there will be many people upset because it might help Trump.
You don't want people just taking HCQ cocktails because a public figure (with access to what I'd imagine is top-notch medical care) does so or because a clinical trial is underway.
But just because a brain cell fires in someone in authority and they start saying shit (a hallmark that some people love and some people hate) doesn't give it any more credence than if Eli Manning came out with his own brand of concussion water.
There are considerable dangers to people in authority spouting off on topics that they are ill-educated on; what is essentially homeopathy at this point is one of them. It could very well work; I'm sure it will be claimed as a unique insight (one that didn't prevent multiple bankruptcies). It doesn't make that statement true or the potential harm from the statement any more disturbing.
I trust that universities and labs are working to get this right. Positive results would be fantastic for society and could help us get back to normal, and could help keep people I care about safe.
I don't necessarily have a problem with the President taking hydroxychloroquine because I'm not worried about adverse effects to him. Unless there are side effects like paranoia and hallucination, I don't think adverse effects from this make our country less safe.
My concern is the potential effect of people in power and with influence pushing for treatments that aren't backed by the science leading to a wave of anti-science protesting and disinformation that could come of this as just another attack on one of our institutions-- medical/scientific research.
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In comment 14906309 PaulBlakeTSU said:
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Trump claims that he has been taking taking hydroxychloroquine and zinc for a few weeks now as a preventative measure.
I wonder if his personal doctor will hold a briefing on it.
University of Minnesota has been running concurrent trials on HCQ prevention and treatment of COVID. It took a 3rd interim analysis a couple of weeks back and rumors that the full analysis might be released within the next couple of weeks. The optimists are hoping it might show that HCQ could reduce the chances of getting COVID by 25-30% after contact with a known patient. We'll see...
And sadly if true there will be many people upset because it might help Trump.
The FDA has issued warnings regarding the use of HCQ as it can cause heart rhythm problems. The Naked Emperor is 73 years old and obese. It is likely not a good idea to take a medicine when it is not needed and could cause severe side-effects for someone who has multiple comorbidities. But hey, if he wants to drink bleach next, I say, "Cheers!"
So, if not the Swedish model, then what exactly do you suggest?
Anyway, did anyone ever imagine there would come a day when a Swedish model couldn't solve all our problems?
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In comment 14906309 PaulBlakeTSU said:
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Trump claims that he has been taking taking hydroxychloroquine and zinc for a few weeks now as a preventative measure.
I wonder if his personal doctor will hold a briefing on it.
University of Minnesota has been running concurrent trials on HCQ prevention and treatment of COVID. It took a 3rd interim analysis a couple of weeks back and rumors that the full analysis might be released within the next couple of weeks. The optimists are hoping it might show that HCQ could reduce the chances of getting COVID by 25-30% after contact with a known patient. We'll see...
And sadly if true there will be many people upset because it might help Trump.
The only thing dumber than rooting against a cure to get us back to normal is trying to retroactively paint a picture that Trump is some savant that saw this coming, despite the fact he barely knows his head from his ass.
So, if not the Swedish model, then what exactly do you suggest?
Anyway, did anyone ever imagine there would come a day when a Swedish model couldn't solve all our problems?
Restrictions are being lifted to varying degrees across the board. What does "open up now" mean? Pretend everything is normal and just get back to right where we were before this? That would be utterly idiotic.
I said it a few times earlier in this thread, but do people actually think that there are individuals who LIKE this lockdown state? Like what the fuck?
1. According to data from the best-studied countries and regions, the lethality of Covid19 is on average about 0.2%, which is in the range of a severe influenza (flu) and about twenty times lower than originally assumed by the WHO.
2. Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.
3. Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. Over 95% of all persons show mild symptoms at most.
4. Up to one third of all persons may already have a certain background immunity to Covid19 due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses).
5. The median or average age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.
COVID-19 datapoints - ( New Window )
Georgia DPH really dropped the ball here.
Link - ( New Window )
Yeah, I think we already had this exchange. But can you say what you're suggesting?
Georgia DPH really dropped the ball here. Link - ( New Window )
Are you asking for reals? I think we know whats going on there
I would mandate that certain restrictions be put in place almost uniformly:
1. Work-from-home and curbside pick-up wherever possible.
2. Flow charts through high traffic stores (grocery, home improvement).
3. Cleaners for grocery carts at entrances to big-box stores. With multiple entries, allow one for entry, one for exits.
4. Limited walk-ins for services; dental, medical, hair, nail, massage, etc.
5. Limit customer capacity; you are probably looking at around 50-percent (at the maximum) of indoor capacity. I would suggest incentivizing outdoors dining if at all possible.
6. Beaches and other recreation open, but with strict fines for not following social distancing measures (fuck beach volleyball games).
7. Mandatory masks in non-public areas.
Beyond this, it's a regional decision. Rural areas are likely to have a lot more unidentified cases than urban areas, but are also less likely to have the issues of significant disease spillovers.
Probably have to expand WIC benefits, with some probability of rent or mortgage support (as well as subsidizing the public utilities to deny further cut-offs as this progresses).
With regards to businesses, that largely depends on the regulatory burden of the state, but would probably involve tax credits at the state and federal levels.
Is that Swiss Policy Research Group legit? I like all the links with the statements, but it paints a much less deadly picture of this thing overall.
With bars opening at 25% capacity, restaurants may move up to 50% capacity. Besides bars, bingo parlors, bowling alleys, rodeos and aquariums can also open on Friday.
By May 31, Abbott said youth sports and overnight camps can resume, along with professional sports (without fans). And by June, summer school can resume at public and private schools, including at universities.
The announcement is the latest in Texas’ march to reopen the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic. While the state has seen an uptick in new COVID-19 cases since the reopening began on May 1, Abbott pointed to metrics that he said show the state is containing the virus’s spread.
Hospitalizations remain steady. And as testing across Texas has increased in recent weeks, the percentage of tests coming back positive has continued to drop, he said.
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thanks for that link
Is that Swiss Policy Research Group legit? I like all the links with the statements, but it paints a much less deadly picture of this thing overall.
What I don’t understand is why hospitals in nyc were near capacity for awhile, if it wasn’t for that I’d would be more hopeful
Hey, btw, since we have to do something about the social welfare state, can we also address the corporate welfare state? We can kill two birds with one stone: liquidate the airlines (they're going belly up anyway) and give their $25 billion bailout package to WIC recipients.
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In comment 14906380 rocco8112 said:
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thanks for that link
Is that Swiss Policy Research Group legit? I like all the links with the statements, but it paints a much less deadly picture of this thing overall.
What I don’t understand is why hospitals in nyc were near capacity for awhile, if it wasn’t for that I’d would be more hopeful
Agree
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In comment 14906092 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 14906080 BurberryManning said:
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In comment 14906074 Chris in Philly said:
You missed something. There was a group there carry 3 Percenter flags (and Trump flags because of course). There may well have been unrelated non-white supremacists there. But the alt-right was certainly there...
Is the 3 Percenter flag associated with racist intent? Hard to keep track of all of these fringe groups and what they stand for. I just assume that there are idiots of all colors, creeds, and backgrounds
Yes. It is. The group was, shockingly, formed in 2008. I wonder what happened that year to make a bunch of racist gun whores want to start a little club...
Is it really or is it just your perception of the group?
5 minutes on Google, or even 30 second on Wikipedia if you're really lazy, could give you all the answers you need, pal.
That is what I did before I replied to you, pal.
Wiki didn’t mentioned racist and other searches made mention of their presence at the Charlottesville protests and I found this text on USA Today:
“ An Aug. 12 statement citing the group's "National Council" issued a "stand down order" to members engaged in the violent protests following a deadly neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville, Va., claiming "we will not align ourselves with any type of racist group" and rejecting "anyone who calls themselves a patriot or a Three Percenter" at the events.’
I have read other texts from the group that are anti racist and non prejudiced. So while there may be some members who are racist, where don’t we find that in large groups, please show me where these core racists beliefs show themselves withIn this group.
Hey, btw, since we have to do something about the social welfare state, can we also address the corporate welfare state? We can kill two birds with one stone: liquidate the airlines (they're going belly up anyway) and give their $25 billion bailout package to WIC recipients.
I didn't realize following California in top-down mandates with regional variation is that big of a hurdle....
That's kind of...common sense?
That is what I did before I replied to you, pal.
Wiki didn’t mentioned racist and other searches made mention of their presence at the Charlottesville protests and I found this text on USA Today:
“ An Aug. 12 statement citing the group's "National Council" issued a "stand down order" to members engaged in the violent protests following a deadly neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville, Va., claiming "we will not align ourselves with any type of racist group" and rejecting "anyone who calls themselves a patriot or a Three Percenter" at the events.’
I have read other texts from the group that are anti racist and non prejudiced. So while there may be some members who are racist, where don’t we find that in large groups, please show me where these core racists beliefs show themselves withIn this group.
Nah, you’re right. They seem lovely.
Link - ( New Window )
I wonder if his personal doctor will hold a briefing on it.
Better the news folks talk about this than the reason the state dept IG was fired, I guess.
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Trump claims that he has been taking taking hydroxychloroquine and zinc for a few weeks now as a preventative measure.
I wonder if his personal doctor will hold a briefing on it.
Better the news folks talk about this than the reason the state dept IG was fired, I guess.
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thanks for that link
Is that Swiss Policy Research Group legit? I like all the links with the statements, but it paints a much less deadly picture of this thing overall.
i received the link from a trusted source, and all of the bullet points re: mortality and infection are sourced via hyperlink and seem solid, but is more euro/globally-focused than specifically US focused.
the social policy points re: state surveillance via contact tracing seem provocative but are not surprising as the surveillance state has been building for decades.
other policy points re: mask wearing/PPE go against conventional wisdom re: masking of healthy/asymptomatic persons and also jive with the inconsistent messaging we got re: masking, and what fauci initially, before the CDC reversed course and decided to promote universal masking of everyone, even outside (bc the chinese were doing it).
overall good, well-presented and sourced datapoints though the policy points are not somuch correct, but reveal an uncertain, schizoid response by governing bodies.
the mortality and infection data are tight (and also speak to inconsistencies we see with death counts from CDC v johns hopkins.
counting deaths in the very geriatric from covid-19 is not as straightforward as it seems and mainstream media err on presenting count data as immutable, and have a vested interest in making problems seem big and scary.
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In comment 14906380 rocco8112 said:
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thanks for that link
Is that Swiss Policy Research Group legit? I like all the links with the statements, but it paints a much less deadly picture of this thing overall.
i received the link from a trusted source, and all of the bullet points re: mortality and infection are sourced via hyperlink and seem solid, but is more euro/globally-focused than specifically US focused.
the social policy points re: state surveillance via contact tracing seem provocative but are not surprising as the surveillance state has been building for decades.
other policy points re: mask wearing/PPE go against conventional wisdom re: masking of healthy/asymptomatic persons and also jive with the inconsistent messaging we got re: masking, and what fauci initially, before the CDC reversed course and decided to promote universal masking of everyone, even outside (bc the chinese were doing it).
overall good, well-presented and sourced datapoints though the policy points are not somuch correct, but reveal an uncertain, schizoid response by governing bodies.
the mortality and infection data are tight (and also speak to inconsistencies we see with death counts from CDC v johns hopkins.
counting deaths in the very geriatric from covid-19 is not as straightforward as it seems and mainstream media err on presenting count data as immutable, and have a vested interest in making problems seem big and scary.
ok, the growth of the already burgeoning surveillance state from this is very scary.
the points are well presented and easy to access the sources. Agree with you on the uncertain schizoid response.
Thanks for posting link
Real estate not giving people the right numbers. Really? What else has real estate ever been about but phony numbers. And phony adjectives, like"great neighbors,""fabulous schools," " no children/teens/ old people/young people" or "many" (pick'em), and old favorites, "tremendous interest in this property'/nowhere to go but up" plus, finally, "You know I charge a lower commission."
we’re good man. always. I didn’t mean to get in your grill either. thank you.
We are working after a shelter-in-place, with how to reopen, and are dealing with a culture that is much less likely to follow government "restrictions" at the same levels.
So, no, I don't think the "suggestion" model is the way to go. The Fed tried it forever with something called "moral suasion" and banks, and it never worked. Don't think it will work with our cultural hodgepodge.
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I think my last 2 posts came out angrier than I intended. I apologize if that was an impression you got.
we’re good man. always. I didn’t mean to get in your grill either. thank you.
I'll blame the 4 year old. The 3 month old can't take too much of my ire (yet).
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In comment 14906294 Chris in Philly said:
Wiki didn’t mentioned racist and other searches made mention of their presence at the Charlottesville protests and I found this text on USA Today:
“ An Aug. 12 statement citing the group's "National Council" issued a "stand down order" to members engaged in the violent protests following a deadly neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville, Va., claiming "we will not align ourselves with any type of racist group" and rejecting "anyone who calls themselves a patriot or a Three Percenter" at the events.’
I have read other texts from the group that are anti racist and non prejudiced. So while there may be some members who are racist, where don’t we find that in large groups, please show me where these core racists beliefs show themselves withIn this group.
Nah, you’re right. They seem lovely. Link - ( New Window )
First, I didn’t claim they weren’t racist. I only asked for proof of your claim. The article you linked is pretty weak at providing that proof. The one person mentioned by name claimed to be a member and local leader but wasn’t using the groups name in his activities.
So while I can I agree that he is most likely a racist, tho Islam isn’t a race. The fact he wouldn’t include the groups name in his racist activities may in fact prove that they wouldn’t approve of their name being associated with his actions which would also mirror the group’s denouncement of racism on multiple occasions as well as their statements on Charlottesville.
Like I said, I am sure there are racists within this group but the more I look into them it seems that they continue to denounce racism while trying to distance themselves from racist activities.
The shut down came earlier than in New York and was undoubtedly helped by the big tech companies (who all have presences in China) moving to remote offices exclusively ahead of the general work-stop we saw, which gave the government more cover for early lockdowns. Not to mention SF for example is sort of a socially-stilted place compared to NYC (far less bar culture IMO - everything closes at 1 AM statewide) with not as tight quarters and the poor public transportation actually being a benefit. Uber's absolutely fucked though, laid off another 3000 today, and this probably goes double for AirBnB.
All that said, I'm fully convinced the coronavirus already passed through the state in January, and imagine this will eventually be borne out, which also contributed to lower numbers of fatality/cases. Anecdotally more people I speak to than not believe this to be the case, including some very smart and informed ones. From a laymen's perspective, pre-shutdown, how many people per day arrive to the west coast from China? If it's anywhere near as contagious as believed, it's seems incredibly unlikely that it didn't jump the ocean for 3 months+ following it's outbreak in China. I think at the end of the day it just isn't as deadly as that philandering Imperial model twerp in England alleged and thankfully we're seeing this be the case in most places.
Anyways, empty suits like Newsom say XYZ but this has been a pretty self-enforce, self-lifted experience for many; no one I know is breathlessly watching his briefings the way other politicians have commanded rapt attention. If the people feel the lockdown is spiritually over, perception becomes reality. California is a fairly permissive and laissez-faire place, so the police haven't been wielding the truncheons as far as enforcement and aside from a few high-profile, vindictive beach closures. Fact is everything north of LA starting in Camarillo is still open in that regard, and it's not like in normal times you don't socially distance at the beach anyhow. I sincerely hope weasels like Garcetti have dug their own political graves through their arbitrary application of fiat decree.
I expect the state to be effectively opened by June, though thanks to the mask-gang we'll be wearing those in grocery stores for another year.
.......Are people banging on pots and pans at an appointed hour in a performative way? Mercifully not.
You answered your own question. No shit they aren't, California did not go through what the NYC/NJ area went through.
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It's been probably a lot different than many here have experienced, owing to NYC/NJ and the epicenter.........
.......Are people banging on pots and pans at an appointed hour in a performative way? Mercifully not.
You answered your own question. No shit they aren't, California did not go through what the NYC/NJ area went through.
I'm aware I answered my own question. It was a rhetorical device.
Shitty poster. Shittier person.
Of the total jobs lost, 13.2% has come in the last 2 weeks in California.
It's slightly higher in Arizona (13.6%), slightly lower in Arkansas (12.8%), much higher in Florida and Georgia (20.0% and 25.6%), higher in Texas (19.9%), etc.
The economic transmission of the effects of this virus are awful.
At least initially, his belief is that the middle class is going to probably be hit with a shock that they may never recover from, especially given work-from-home, their lack of transferability of skillsets outside of middle-class jobs, and other things.
What's also weird is that the average wage paid to workers will RISE during this time.
Rebekah Jones said in an email to CBS12 News that her removal was "not voluntary" and that she was removed from her position because she was ordered to censor some data, but refused to "manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen."
Jones made the announcement May 5 in a farewell email to researchers and other members of the public who had signed up to receive updates on the data portal, according to Florida Today. She said that for "reasons beyond my division's control," her office is no longer managing the dashboard, involved in its publication, fixing errors or answering any questions.
https://cbs12.com/news/local/woman-who-designed-floridas-covid-19-dashboard-has-been-removed-from-her-position?fbclid=IwAR0_vzXJgyqSoLe0T7nNjsyFOBtJbAkZsu5UGlrYG_UTCEfUaL-AH7ThHVU - ( New Window )
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (CBS12) — As Florida starts to reopen, the architect and manager of Florida's COVID-19 dashboard, announced she'd been removed from her position, Florida Today reported.
Rebekah Jones said in an email to CBS12 News that her removal was "not voluntary" and that she was removed from her position because she was ordered to censor some data, but refused to "manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen."
Jones made the announcement May 5 in a farewell email to researchers and other members of the public who had signed up to receive updates on the data portal, according to Florida Today. She said that for "reasons beyond my division's control," her office is no longer managing the dashboard, involved in its publication, fixing errors or answering any questions.
https://cbs12.com/news/local/woman-who-designed-floridas-covid-19-dashboard-has-been-removed-from-her-position?fbclid=IwAR0_vzXJgyqSoLe0T7nNjsyFOBtJbAkZsu5UGlrYG_UTCEfUaL-AH7ThHVU - ( New Window )
So this story. ...
And the AJC story about Kemp fudging the presentation of data to make things look better in Georgia.
Huh, it’s almost as if there is a conspiracy to hide the truth.
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (CBS12) — As Florida starts to reopen, the architect and manager of Florida's COVID-19 dashboard, announced she'd been removed from her position, Florida Today reported.
Rebekah Jones said in an email to CBS12 News that her removal was "not voluntary" and that she was removed from her position because she was ordered to censor some data, but refused to "manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen."
Jones made the announcement May 5 in a farewell email to researchers and other members of the public who had signed up to receive updates on the data portal, according to Florida Today. She said that for "reasons beyond my division's control," her office is no longer managing the dashboard, involved in its publication, fixing errors or answering any questions.
https://cbs12.com/news/local/woman-who-designed-floridas-covid-19-dashboard-has-been-removed-from-her-position?fbclid=IwAR0_vzXJgyqSoLe0T7nNjsyFOBtJbAkZsu5UGlrYG_UTCEfUaL-AH7ThHVU - ( New Window )
Paul, it has been mentioned a few pages ago that the state was only counting Florida residents when an investigation found discrepancies in the counts from Manatee County and that what was reported to the state. In addition to the link that you provided, it has been revealed that 35k tests administered out of Orlando have been in error. It just wasn't false positives. The tests were trash. Negatives were actually positive and vice versa. The false sense of security getting results that you are negative to go about and spread the virus that you are actually positive for is reckless. The whole mess in Florida is a shit-show.
Paywall, can’t read it.
Anyway, I'd like to find out for sure, but don't want another friggin fiasco. Does anyone know of reliable antibody testing to go to in the Bergen County NJ area?
Anyway, I'd like to find out for sure, but don't want another friggin fiasco. Does anyone know of reliable antibody testing to go to in the Bergen County NJ area?
Just get an order for the Ab test through your Doc and go to quest. I did it, was simple
The Covid tracker at the Atlantic gives Florida an A+ in data quality as of yesterday morning. They give Georgia an A+ also FWIW.
Correlation? - ( New Window )
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Missed this when it came out, but was reminded of it as I dug into the history of how we got this plague. I put it here for everyone to remind them: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-soccer-match-that-kicked-off-italys-coronavirus-disaster-11585752012 One hopes that the President understands this despite his well meant wish, surely shared by all, for a different near-term future in which the virus has been defeated.
Paywall, can’t read it.
Damn! Here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-soccer-match-that-kicked-off-italys-coronavirus-disaster-11585752012 . And also here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/03/25/biological-bomb-soccer-match-italy-linked-epicenter-deadly-outbreak/ .
Both from Google search. Sorry if the either is behind a paywall.
If Florida is doing that, they deserve everything they are going to get.
I imagine all alt right groups are always going to attract some racists because many in fact have racist beliefs but that doesn't mean all of these groups are racist. I have already shown where this group had distanced itself from racists and racist protests but yet you still prefer to smell your colon from the inside. Do you enjoy being a prejudice fuck?
Quote:
Sound like upstanding citiizens having their name dragged through the mud bc they happen to attract virulent racists by chance.
I imagine all alt right groups are always going to attract some racists because many in fact have racist beliefs but that doesn't mean all of these groups are racist. I have already shown where this group had distanced itself from racists and racist protests but yet you still prefer to smell your colon from the inside. Do you enjoy being a prejudice fuck?
I'm a minority, I don't owe tolerance to a group that just attracts racists "by mistake". And their cover-your-ass statements to try to bury their obvious dog whistles doesn't make a damn of a difference to me.
So yeah, nah, they don't get an ounce of respect from me (and neither does anyone who associates themselves with the 'alt-right')
Quote:
Sound like upstanding citiizens having their name dragged through the mud bc they happen to attract virulent racists by chance.
I imagine all alt right groups are always going to attract some racists because many in fact have racist beliefs but that doesn't mean all of these groups are racist. I have already shown where this group had distanced itself from racists and racist protests but yet you still prefer to smell your colon from the inside. Do you enjoy being a prejudice fuck?
Hmmm...this is interesting. Alt-right movement, which represents nationalist beliefs and has been coopted by white supremist gets called a racist movement, deservingly so based on how they've portrayed themselves publicly. But those calling it a racist movement are prejudiced?
Isn't this like calling someone, who denounces an intolerant racist group, intolerant for denouncing such groups?
And by the way, if racists think that the Alt-right movement is a movement that aligns with their beliefs and they join them, it's pretty much a racist movement.
Have they kicked out known Racists?
Have they purged their membership of them?
If not then all they are doing is pretending their not a racist group in order to appear more mainstream and palatable.
GmanFan45
@GmanFan45
@IngrahamAngle
Laura what is the problem with your irresponsible colleague @TeamCavuto ?? Apparently he never read the French study or Dr. Stephen Smith's experience on this. Your colleagues at
@FoxNews might as well be on
@cnnbecause all they do is spew #FakeNews about
@POTUS
link - ( New Window )
Oliver Darcy
@oliverdarcy
Fox can't get its story straight: While one host zings Trump for taking hydorxychloroquine, another host encourages its use. While one medical contributor calls it "highly irresponsible," another says it's "reasonable." What are viewers to believe?
Regardless of your thoughts are on the drug itself, is it the opinion of Darcy that it is the news media's job to parrot a single narrative and that every single host on the network should parrot that one narrative to their viewers? Is it Darcy's opinion that the news media's job is to tell viewers what to believe?
Furthermore, I thought the Fox News narrative what that it is State TV and it parrots exactly what the administration tells them to? Now it's also a bad thing that a Fox News host disagrees with the President and the network as a whole has hosts with different thoughts and opinions?
"What are viewers to believe?" Whatever they want to believe, Oliver. Thanks for saying the quiet part out loud
https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1262604231216902144 - ( New Window )
here is a great overview of testing in NYC .. cost accuracy
I
Your Guide To Antibody Test Locations, Costs, And Accuracy In NYC - ( New Window )
Quote:
Are people banging on pots and pans at an appointed hour in a performative way? Mercifully not.
Shitty poster. Shittier person.
Lol stay mad. How dare I go after the sacred cow that is slacktivism. Your hysterics on this thread speak loud enough.
Your mask came off with the alt-right memes, originating from 4chan /pol/, that you posted in days prior. Stick to trafficking in NPCs and orange man bad memes, as it's more appropriate for your intellectual capabilities and it's a more honest statement of who you are as a person.
Although, being Extremely Online to notice a CNN reporter's tweet and then parroting the same argument as Twitter user "Brian Cates //Flynn & Breitbart's Army! @drawandstrike" to criticize said reporter might be revealing enough.
Oliver Darcy
@oliverdarcy
Fox can't get its story straight: While one host zings Trump for taking hydorxychloroquine, another host encourages its use. While one medical contributor calls it "highly irresponsible," another says it's "reasonable." What are viewers to believe?
Regardless of your thoughts are on the drug itself, is it the opinion of Darcy that it is the news media's job to parrot a single narrative and that every single host on the network should parrot that one narrative to their viewers? Is it Darcy's opinion that the news media's job is to tell viewers what to believe?
Furthermore, I thought the Fox News narrative what that it is State TV and it parrots exactly what the administration tells them to? Now it's also a bad thing that a Fox News host disagrees with the President and the network as a whole has hosts with different thoughts and opinions?
"What are viewers to believe?" Whatever they want to believe, Oliver. Thanks for saying the quiet part out loud https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1262604231216902144 - ( New Window )
Narrative - a way of presenting or understanding a situation or series of events that reflects and promotes a particular point of view or set of values (source: Miriam Webster
The news media shouldn't be presenting an opinion on hydroxychloroquine. They should be reporting the facts as determined by the leading medical research. The most recent and scientifically valid research has shown the hydroxychloroquine does not treat or prevent COVID-19 but it does have potentially serious side effects. That is what the news media should be reporting. There's no need to "create" a narrative around anything. Report the f****** facts.
And kudos to Cavuto for calling Trump out on his irresponsible promoting of a serious drug with no proven benefits and serious side effects.
Your mask came off with the alt-right memes, originating from 4chan /pol/, that you posted in days prior. Stick to trafficking in NPCs and orange man bad memes, as it's more appropriate for your intellectual capabilities and it's a more honest statement of who you are as a person.
Although, being Extremely Online to notice a CNN reporter's tweet and then parroting the same argument as Twitter user "Brian Cates //Flynn & Breitbart's Army! @drawandstrike" to criticize said reporter might be revealing enough.
Good try bringing Breitbart into the equation out of nowhere, but I regularly rail against the media, including the sports media, for its inconsistent and irresponsible reporting, and that includes networks and outlets that I happen to agree with. It’s activism masked as journalism
Your mask came off with the alt-right memes, originating from 4chan /pol/, that you posted in days prior. Stick to trafficking in NPCs and orange man bad memes, as it's more appropriate for your intellectual capabilities and it's a more honest statement of who you are as a person.
Although, being Extremely Online to notice a CNN reporter's tweet and then parroting the same argument as Twitter user "Brian Cates //Flynn & Breitbart's Army! @drawandstrike" to criticize said reporter might be revealing enough.
Intellectual capabilities? His, or his parroted , reaction about the tweet has nothing to do with with the fact that the tweet expressed which opposing opinion on the treatment was valid, which it didn't, but about the fact the tweeter couldn't fathom a news organisation presenting different opinions on a subject, as if news organizations should have a common agenda.
Quote:
Oliver Darcy re: the President's usage of Hydroxychloroquine.
Oliver Darcy
@oliverdarcy
Fox can't get its story straight: While one host zings Trump for taking hydorxychloroquine, another host encourages its use. While one medical contributor calls it "highly irresponsible," another says it's "reasonable." What are viewers to believe?
Regardless of your thoughts are on the drug itself, is it the opinion of Darcy that it is the news media's job to parrot a single narrative and that every single host on the network should parrot that one narrative to their viewers? Is it Darcy's opinion that the news media's job is to tell viewers what to believe?
Furthermore, I thought the Fox News narrative what that it is State TV and it parrots exactly what the administration tells them to? Now it's also a bad thing that a Fox News host disagrees with the President and the network as a whole has hosts with different thoughts and opinions?
"What are viewers to believe?" Whatever they want to believe, Oliver. Thanks for saying the quiet part out loud https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1262604231216902144 - ( New Window )
Narrative - a way of presenting or understanding a situation or series of events that reflects and promotes a particular point of view or set of values (source: Miriam Webster
The news media shouldn't be presenting an opinion on hydroxychloroquine. They should be reporting the facts as determined by the leading medical research. The most recent and scientifically valid research has shown the hydroxychloroquine does not treat or prevent COVID-19 but it does have potentially serious side effects. That is what the news media should be reporting. There's no need to "create" a narrative around anything. Report the f****** facts.
And kudos to Cavuto for calling Trump out on his irresponsible promoting of a serious drug with no proven benefits and serious side effects.
"I'm taking it, hydroxychloroquine," Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. "I'm not going to get hurt by it. It's been around for 40 years for malaria, for lupus, for other things. I take it. Frontline workers take it. A lot of doctors take it."
Trump is, roughly speaking, right about all of that.
Link - ( New Window )
If he doctor is giving it to him who knows what other drugs he is taking and monitors him the chance of serious side effects is pretty slight. Also, one of the side effects is weight loss, so he has that chance.
Belligerent update? Ummm ok.
Quote:
In comment 14906443 Nitro said:
Quote:
Are people banging on pots and pans at an appointed hour in a performative way? Mercifully not.
Shitty poster. Shittier person.
Lol stay mad. How dare I go after the sacred cow that is slacktivism. Your hysterics on this thread speak loud enough.
"lol stay mad"-- good one.
Acting like an asshole-- you know, for performative reasons-- doesn't make you edgy. It just makes you an asshole.
And you've been doing this for years. Doesn't it get exhausting? At some point, every performer retires the bit.
Quote:
Except he could get hurt by it.
If he doctor is giving it to him who knows what other drugs he is taking and monitors him the chance of serious side effects is pretty slight. Also, one of the side effects is weight loss, so he has that chance.
Is this the same doctor who claims he is 6'3, 243 lbs, and is in excellent shape?
Quote:
In comment 14906459 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
In comment 14906443 Nitro said:
Quote:
Are people banging on pots and pans at an appointed hour in a performative way? Mercifully not.
Shitty poster. Shittier person.
Lol stay mad. How dare I go after the sacred cow that is slacktivism. Your hysterics on this thread speak loud enough.
"lol stay mad"-- good one.
Acting like an asshole-- you know, for performative reasons-- doesn't make you edgy. It just makes you an asshole.
And you've been doing this for years. Doesn't it get exhausting? At some point, every performer retires the bit.
To be fair, I hardly post here anymore. Life changes and a perennially garbage football team sap the will to argue with Greg in LI about esoterica. I just have more time than usual so I've swung by the old haunts. I'm not trying to be edgy, I just seem to disagree with your clucky, schoolmarm tone being the proper way forward and thing people bleating about risk don't seem to appreciate theres a lot of parallels to the post-9/11 conversation which I think we frankly mostly got wrong wrt individual liberties. I think a lot of people are still in worst-case scenario mode which made a lot more sense in March but not now as we've seen things play out.
For very understandable and obvious reasons there's incredibly tri-state biased perspective here so I figured it'd be interesting to add a different one. I dunno, guess it wasn't that interesting to you aside from my one aside about performative clapping (where's the lie?) and that's okay. Most of the rest of the country is operating on different priorities. This doesn't make them wrong or evil.
Quote:
its one thing to be a politician and lie or mislead about policies and things of that nature, but its another to give out belligerent updates on medication consumption. I really wish we didn't have to hear his medical updates, I pray for the droves of people that take his word as gospel and seek out whatever medication he "recommends".
Belligerent update? Ummm ok.
That’s correct. Belligerent and negligent.
Did Nadler's doctor claim he was 6'3 and weighed 243lbs?
Quote:
In comment 14906442 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
Sound like upstanding citiizens having their name dragged through the mud bc they happen to attract virulent racists by chance.
I imagine all alt right groups are always going to attract some racists because many in fact have racist beliefs but that doesn't mean all of these groups are racist. I have already shown where this group had distanced itself from racists and racist protests but yet you still prefer to smell your colon from the inside. Do you enjoy being a prejudice fuck?
Hmmm...this is interesting. Alt-right movement, which represents nationalist beliefs and has been coopted by white supremist gets called a racist movement, deservingly so based on how they've portrayed themselves publicly. But those calling it a racist movement are prejudiced?
Isn't this like calling someone, who denounces an intolerant racist group, intolerant for denouncing such groups?
And by the way, if racists think that the Alt-right movement is a movement that aligns with their beliefs and they join them, it's pretty much a racist movement.
I'm also not sure what constitutes the "alt right." Is this a card-carrying designation? Similarly I'm not sure what constitutes the "alt-left" nor I'm I aware of any way in which the prominent leaders of such factions have the means of filtering supporters, although I admit to not be an expert on these organizations. Some folks believe that there are views from the Left or progressive groups that are similarly "racist" or prejudice against perceived privilege, whether it be BLM, antifa, or polarizing politicians. For example, I'd argue its facile to argue BLM as a hate group due to the Dallas incident of 2016 but lazy extrapolation can lead to that. It's just a slippery slope and lazy intellect to make the connection of "supporter believes xyz --> organization believes/promotes xyz." I don't think the transitive property applies.
I also believe that holding absolute believes on these issues exposes oneself to hypocrisy ("believe all women" being a recent example), and there are plenty of bottom-feeders (looking at you, Milo) that will exploit any opening to highlight it.
Who's "cancelling" the protest?
Here's a wiki article on alt-right. Says it right in the first sentence. - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Thank you. It hurt when I was a kid, but it doesn't bother me much these days. However, I know that my children, even if they may be part white will have to deal with some level of racism, and that's what I dread.
Grotesque! Tolerance is usually a good idea, but you've been asked to show an awful lot of it along the way. Stings and shames those of us who have never had to do it ourselves.
Anyway, I'd like to find out for sure, but don't want another friggin fiasco. Does anyone know of reliable antibody testing to go to in the Bergen County NJ area?
Late to this, but my advice is to make sure that the test is done in an actual lab and that the test is *not* one of those many tests, marketed as “Rapid Test” or Point of Care tests.
There are some good tests available and, although none are perfect, several are decent. But, it must be a test done in a lab and, they lab, if you are to trust it, must provide an explanation of not only the caveats about the results or what they do and do not tell you. If they don’t, I wouldn’t trust them. If they state something as an absolute wrt a result, I wouldn’t trust them.
Quote:
but question on the anti-body test. From some of the research I've done, it seems like the market was "flooded" with antibody tests with little oversight and there wasn't a great deal of confidence in the results. I know some doc in the boxes are offering it (like CityMD) but I'm waiting until there is some good information on a test that is reliable. I gave my own story on this thread back in March where I took a Covid test and it was lost, but I pretty much checked most boxes for the disease (fever, it lingered for like 3 weeks, exhaustion, stomach issues, not bad with cough though) and I did test negative for the flu. Needless to say, my doctor who saw me (via tele-med) was more or less convinced I had it (commuting to NYC through Feb and March via NJT and subways to Rock Center probably made it inevitable).
Anyway, I'd like to find out for sure, but don't want another friggin fiasco. Does anyone know of reliable antibody testing to go to in the Bergen County NJ area?
Late to this, but my advice is to make sure that the test is done in an actual lab and that the test is *not* one of those many tests, marketed as “Rapid Test” or Point of Care tests.
There are some good tests available and, although none are perfect, several are decent. But, it must be a test done in a lab and, they lab, if you are to trust it, must provide an explanation of not only the caveats about the results or what they do and do not tell you. If they don’t, I wouldn’t trust them. If they state something as an absolute wrt a result, I wouldn’t trust them.
Thanks Bill, I'm going tomorrow to a doctor's office that is sending the sample to a lab at Quest. And this is a group that we've gone to for years up near Ramsey/Upper Saddle River and they've been very straightforward with us, so I'm expecting (hoping) they fit the bill as you describe. I was told I should get the results back in a day or two.
Oliver Darcy
@oliverdarcy
Fox can't get its story straight: While one host zings Trump for taking hydorxychloroquine, another host encourages its use. While one medical contributor calls it "highly irresponsible," another says it's "reasonable." What are viewers to believe?
Regardless of your thoughts are on the drug itself, is it the opinion of Darcy that it is the news media's job to parrot a single narrative and that every single host on the network should parrot that one narrative to their viewers? Is it Darcy's opinion that the news media's job is to tell viewers what to believe?
Furthermore, I thought the Fox News narrative what that it is State TV and it parrots exactly what the administration tells them to? Now it's also a bad thing that a Fox News host disagrees with the President and the network as a whole has hosts with different thoughts and opinions?
"What are viewers to believe?" Whatever they want to believe, Oliver. Thanks for saying the quiet part out loud https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1262604231216902144 - ( New Window )
It's almost like he was being sarcastic and rhetorical.
Quote:
In comment 14906294 Chris in Philly said:
Wiki didn’t mentioned racist and other searches made mention of their presence at the Charlottesville protests and I found this text on USA Today:
“ An Aug. 12 statement citing the group's "National Council" issued a "stand down order" to members engaged in the violent protests following a deadly neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville, Va., claiming "we will not align ourselves with any type of racist group" and rejecting "anyone who calls themselves a patriot or a Three Percenter" at the events.’
I have read other texts from the group that are anti racist and non prejudiced. So while there may be some members who are racist, where don’t we find that in large groups, please show me where these core racists beliefs show themselves withIn this group.
Nah, you’re right. They seem lovely. Link - ( New Window )
First, I didn’t claim they weren’t racist. I only asked for proof of your claim. The article you linked is pretty weak at providing that proof. The one person mentioned by name claimed to be a member and local leader but wasn’t using the groups name in his activities.
So while I can I agree that he is most likely a racist, tho Islam isn’t a race. The fact he wouldn’t include the groups name in his racist activities may in fact prove that they wouldn’t approve of their name being associated with his actions which would also mirror the group’s denouncement of racism on multiple occasions as well as their statements on Charlottesville.
Like I said, I am sure there are racists within this group but the more I look into them it seems that they continue to denounce racism while trying to distance themselves from racist activities.
Oliver Darcy
@oliverdarcy
Fox can't get its story straight: While one host zings Trump for taking hydorxychloroquine, another host encourages its use. While one medical contributor calls it "highly irresponsible," another says it's "reasonable." What are viewers to believe?
Regardless of your thoughts are on the drug itself, is it the opinion of Darcy that it is the news media's job to parrot a single narrative and that every single host on the network should parrot that one narrative to their viewers? Is it Darcy's opinion that the news media's job is to tell viewers what to believe?
Furthermore, I thought the Fox News narrative what that it is State TV and it parrots exactly what the administration tells them to? Now it's also a bad thing that a Fox News host disagrees with the President and the network as a whole has hosts with different thoughts and opinions?
"What are viewers to believe?" Whatever they want to believe, Oliver. Thanks for saying the quiet part out loud https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1262604231216902144 - ( New Window )
It's actually a good example of why Fox News viewers are consistently shown to be more poorly informed than folks who don't watch it.
Quote:
Oliver Darcy re: the President's usage of Hydroxychloroquine.
Oliver Darcy
@oliverdarcy
Fox can't get its story straight: While one host zings Trump for taking hydorxychloroquine, another host encourages its use. While one medical contributor calls it "highly irresponsible," another says it's "reasonable." What are viewers to believe?
Regardless of your thoughts are on the drug itself, is it the opinion of Darcy that it is the news media's job to parrot a single narrative and that every single host on the network should parrot that one narrative to their viewers? Is it Darcy's opinion that the news media's job is to tell viewers what to believe?
Furthermore, I thought the Fox News narrative what that it is State TV and it parrots exactly what the administration tells them to? Now it's also a bad thing that a Fox News host disagrees with the President and the network as a whole has hosts with different thoughts and opinions?
"What are viewers to believe?" Whatever they want to believe, Oliver. Thanks for saying the quiet part out loud https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1262604231216902144 - ( New Window )
It's actually a good example of why Fox News viewers are consistently shown to be more poorly informed than folks who don't watch it.
Can you link the studies that show this?
Quote:
In comment 14906442 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
Sound like upstanding citiizens having their name dragged through the mud bc they happen to attract virulent racists by chance.
I imagine all alt right groups are always going to attract some racists because many in fact have racist beliefs but that doesn't mean all of these groups are racist. I have already shown where this group had distanced itself from racists and racist protests but yet you still prefer to smell your colon from the inside. Do you enjoy being a prejudice fuck?
Hmmm...this is interesting. Alt-right movement, which represents nationalist beliefs and has been coopted by white supremist gets called a racist movement, deservingly so based on how they've portrayed themselves publicly. But those calling it a racist movement are prejudiced?
Isn't this like calling someone, who denounces an intolerant racist group, intolerant for denouncing such groups?
And by the way, if racists think that the Alt-right movement is a movement that aligns with their beliefs and they join them, it's pretty much a racist movement.
You have misrepresented my point: alt right groups are not all the same and they do not all have the same agenda. Your comments are basically proof of your prejudice as well. I suppose "alt right" is a term that shouldn't be applied so liberally if you want to group them all as nationalist racists.
Quote:
In comment 14906442 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
Sound like upstanding citiizens having their name dragged through the mud bc they happen to attract virulent racists by chance.
I imagine all alt right groups are always going to attract some racists because many in fact have racist beliefs but that doesn't mean all of these groups are racist. I have already shown where this group had distanced itself from racists and racist protests but yet you still prefer to smell your colon from the inside. Do you enjoy being a prejudice fuck?
Hmmm...this is interesting. Alt-right movement, which represents nationalist beliefs and has been coopted by white supremist gets called a racist movement, deservingly so based on how they've portrayed themselves publicly. But those calling it a racist movement are prejudiced?
Isn't this like calling someone, who denounces an intolerant racist group, intolerant for denouncing such groups?
And by the way, if racists think that the Alt-right movement is a movement that aligns with their beliefs and they join them, it's pretty much a racist movement.
You have misrepresented my point: alt right groups are not all the same and they do not all have the same agenda. Your comments are basically proof of your prejudice as well. I suppose "alt right" is a term that shouldn't be applied so liberally if you want to group them all as nationalist racists.
The study that I can find that some may be referring to is a 2012 study by Fairleigh Dickinson University. The survey actually looks at other mass media as well, including MSNBC.
No thought on this personally...just doing a quick research on what you were asking for.
2012 FDU survey - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14906753 dabru said:
Quote:
In comment 14906442 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
Sound like upstanding citiizens having their name dragged through the mud bc they happen to attract virulent racists by chance.
I imagine all alt right groups are always going to attract some racists because many in fact have racist beliefs but that doesn't mean all of these groups are racist. I have already shown where this group had distanced itself from racists and racist protests but yet you still prefer to smell your colon from the inside. Do you enjoy being a prejudice fuck?
Hmmm...this is interesting. Alt-right movement, which represents nationalist beliefs and has been coopted by white supremist gets called a racist movement, deservingly so based on how they've portrayed themselves publicly. But those calling it a racist movement are prejudiced?
Isn't this like calling someone, who denounces an intolerant racist group, intolerant for denouncing such groups?
And by the way, if racists think that the Alt-right movement is a movement that aligns with their beliefs and they join them, it's pretty much a racist movement.
You have misrepresented my point: alt right groups are not all the same and they do not all have the same agenda. Your comments are basically proof of your prejudice as well. I suppose "alt right" is a term that shouldn't be applied so liberally if you want to group them all as nationalist racists.
You don't want to be tagged with that any more than you want to be tagged 'Socialist' - Bernie Sanders mistakenly thought Average Americans would be smart enough able to differentiate between his 'Democratic Socialism* and literal Socialism.
Don't be like this Jorma at Woodstock, because you know, the Nazi's had hijacked the true meaning of the Swastika and people would come around:
Quote:
Can you link the studies that show this?
The study that I can find that some may be referring to is a 2012 study by Fairleigh Dickinson University. The survey actually looks at other mass media as well, including MSNBC.
No thought on this personally...just doing a quick research on what you were asking for. 2012 FDU survey - ( New Window )
I suppose the key quote directly from your linked source, RC - putting aside its from 2012:
“These differences may be small, but even small differences are important when
we’re talking about millions of people,” said Cassino. “We expect that watching the
news should help people learn, but the most popular of the national media sources –
Fox, CNN, MSNBC – seem to be the least informative.”
Yep...I'm totally prejudiced...got you.
Numerous organizations and national groups have classified the alt-right movement as one embracing and espousing white nationalism. And white nationalism is just a nice way of saying racists. You can argue all you want about how it's not, but if it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and walks like a duck, then it must be a duck.
Even Merriam-Webster defines alt-right as:
: a right-wing, primarily online political movement or grouping based in the U.S. whose members reject mainstream conservative politics and espouse extremist beliefs and policies typically centered on ideas of white nationalism
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
In comment 14906807 Giants in 07 said:
Quote:
Oliver Darcy re: the President's usage of Hydroxychloroquine.
Oliver Darcy
@oliverdarcy
Fox can't get its story straight: While one host zings Trump for taking hydorxychloroquine, another host encourages its use. While one medical contributor calls it "highly irresponsible," another says it's "reasonable." What are viewers to believe?
Regardless of your thoughts are on the drug itself, is it the opinion of Darcy that it is the news media's job to parrot a single narrative and that every single host on the network should parrot that one narrative to their viewers? Is it Darcy's opinion that the news media's job is to tell viewers what to believe?
Furthermore, I thought the Fox News narrative what that it is State TV and it parrots exactly what the administration tells them to? Now it's also a bad thing that a Fox News host disagrees with the President and the network as a whole has hosts with different thoughts and opinions?
"What are viewers to believe?" Whatever they want to believe, Oliver. Thanks for saying the quiet part out loud https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1262604231216902144 - ( New Window )
It's actually a good example of why Fox News viewers are consistently shown to be more poorly informed than folks who don't watch it.
Can you link the studies that show this?
This study is 8 years old and Business Insider may lean slightly left, so I can't confirm that there isn't any partisan bias in this study, but here's one. The study does also show that CNN and MSNBC viewers are also among the least informed, but Fox viewers came in less informed than even those who watched no news at all.
Link - ( New Window )
ADL:
…
Though not every person who identifies with the alt right is a white supremacist, most are and “white identity” is central to people in this milieu. In fact, alt righters reject modern conservatism explicitly because they believe that mainstream conservatives are not advocating for the interests of white people as a group.
SPLC:
So if you consider yourself a member of the Alt-Right, I would keep that to yourself for your own sake.
Wiki on Alt-right - ( New Window )
"I don't know the political leanings of people I follow on Twitter"
"I don't have time to investigate what I post, sorry I have a life, unlike you"
"It's just jokes bro"
Inquiring minds want to know.
The NPC meme is an alt-right meme?
Do you think right wing = alt-right?
You know, the breeding ground of the alt-right on the internet.
Link - ( New Window )
"I don't know the political leanings of people I follow on Twitter"
"I don't have time to investigate what I post, sorry I have a life, unlike you"
"It's just jokes bro"
Perfect...
It's a pretty pivotal time in this that affects all of us the same.
States are gradually re-opening and we're all holding our breath.
Meanwhile, I got the first indication via email last night, although subtle, that we might be doing a virtual school year next year.
It's a pretty pivotal time in this that affects all of us the same.
States are gradually re-opening and we're all holding our breath.
Meanwhile, I got the first indication via email last night, although subtle, that we might be doing a virtual school year next year.
My daughter's elementary school is mulling over an option to either do virtual the first semester entirely or to do alternating weeks with half the students coming to school while the other half do e-learning. This is going to be rough for my soon to be kindergartner if it's true...:(
You know, the breeding ground of the alt-right on the internet. Link - ( New Window )
The term 'orange man bad' is alt-right too? Give me a break.
So pretty much everything you don't like or agree with is alt-right. Gotcha! I guess it's a good way to convince yourself that you have the moral high ground.
It's a pretty pivotal time in this that affects all of us the same.
States are gradually re-opening and we're all holding our breath.
Meanwhile, I got the first indication via email last night, although subtle, that we might be doing a virtual school year next year.
For the entire year?
I have family that are teachers and they were told that they may not be in school in 2020 but didn't mention January-June 2021
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this thread is getting away from the important shit here.
It's a pretty pivotal time in this that affects all of us the same.
States are gradually re-opening and we're all holding our breath.
Meanwhile, I got the first indication via email last night, although subtle, that we might be doing a virtual school year next year.
My daughter's elementary school is mulling over an option to either do virtual the first semester entirely or to do alternating weeks with half the students coming to school while the other half do e-learning. This is going to be rough for my soon to be kindergartner if it's true...:(
My five year old is finishing her kindergarten year at home with me. At least they gave us the option of looping her teacher, which means they are moving the teacher to first grade and letting her keep her class. Not every teacher does this so we are lucky I guess considering the circumstances.
Here's the thing. Right now, we're all running around with our head's cut off trying to look like we know what we're doing.
We need leadership (talking about school here) that is proactive vs. reactive. Look, if you know we're going to be virtual next year, start virtual, or inevitably going virtual then we need to be training for this NOW.
Just tell me the truth. As a teacher, tell me know and let me turn my garage into a virtual studio/classroom and work on a plan.
Somebody needs to step up confidently and say "you know what, here's the plan...." instead of waiting on the plan to come to us.
What happens if K-12 education goes all virtual for Fall 2022, or even half-and-half? That has significant childcare implications.
33% of American households earn less than $40,0000. 40% of job losses have fallen in these groups. They don't have much financial capacity to afford excess childcare, if it's even available. And given that several states are starting to remove their low-income childcare subsidies (thanks Texas), it's going to further eradicate the ability of these families to survive this pandemic.
And, frankly, teachers having to modify their course material will fall at the bottom of the list in terms of worst outcomes.
States will wait to make that decision for as long as possible.
And, frankly, teachers having to modify their course material will fall at the bottom of the list in terms of worst outcomes.
States will wait to make that decision for as long as possible.
I get that. But what I mean is.... We all know that there's going to be a second wave of us. So whatever that looks like, EVERYBODY needs to know now to have time to prepare, and make contingency plans.
I'm not complaining about modifying my schoolwork. I'm also thinking about what to do with my own kids.
They told him he's IN for next summer, but good luck finding work outside of flipping burgers now.
Anyone need a Python dynamo? He's excellent.
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economic impacts of moving K-12 all online and the impacts it has on consumption and spending today (have to save immediately), the impacts on the labor market (may as well choose unemployment over work), and hours of work (who chooses to work in low income households).
And, frankly, teachers having to modify their course material will fall at the bottom of the list in terms of worst outcomes.
States will wait to make that decision for as long as possible.
I get that. But what I mean is.... We all know that there's going to be a second wave of us. So whatever that looks like, EVERYBODY needs to know now to have time to prepare, and make contingency plans.
I'm not complaining about modifying my schoolwork. I'm also thinking about what to do with my own kids.
Yes, there is likely to be a second wave. It is likely to be a really bad winter, in terms of deaths.
That's inevitable. What doesn't have to be is preparations for that inevitability that could mean we MAY NOT have to shelter-in-place (with other draconian policies). And to do that, we need the economy to start to get back to normal, and it's not going to be easy.
To further throw economic disruption in terms of having to save now for childcare could lead to worse economic outcomes than what we think is the worst-case outcome right now.
There is no good solution. But there is thought behind waiting; it could get better. If we announce online K-12 education, in terms of the economics, it's going to be a bloodbath.
The ripple effect of the schools remaining Remote for the city long term will be profound. NYC can't return to all systems go without the schools.
I am very impressed with all the work done by teachers and educators to bring Remote Learning into reality. It actually has gone much better than I expected. All that being true, it is a shadow of real school. It is no substitute at all. If schools are still closed in Sept, rumblings are they will be, there will be long term impacts for child development. God forbid it goes another full year as I have heard some say. That there must be a vaccine or treatment to open schools. That idea seems ludicrous to me
Social distancing will also be a massive challenge as almost all NYC schools have enrollment above capacity. Well above. High schools already have split session time schedules, perhaps they move to alternate days as they are older, but what about the young kids? Elementary and Middle Schools in NYC can have enrollment over a thousand as well. 350 plus kids in a cafeteria, hallway passing, recess, gym. I am digressing though.
My main point is that it is a very big deal the longer schools stay closed in NYC. Remote Learning as it is called here, is a mitigation effort, many seem to be under the impression it replaces school.
2. No announcement of online/limited in-campus classes until the late summer. Education quality is worse than in 1. Parents freak out, and have to scramble to make childcare accomodations. Could be partially offset by fiscal policy put into place over the intervening time period. May also give time for the labor market to recover, or come up with alternatives (tele-commuting) for a fraction of the labor force.
It's a very simplified analysis of a very complex topic, but it's what every region is combating.
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and spread on The_Donald.
You know, the breeding ground of the alt-right on the internet. Link - ( New Window )
The term 'orange man bad' is alt-right too? Give me a break.
So pretty much everything you don't like or agree with is alt-right. Gotcha! I guess it's a good way to convince yourself that you have the moral high ground.
And if you don't go there, well, all the content you gleefully lap up is originating from those places.
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Can you link the studies that show this?
The study that I can find that some may be referring to is a 2012 study by Fairleigh Dickinson University. The survey actually looks at other mass media as well, including MSNBC.
No thought on this personally...just doing a quick research on what you were asking for. 2012 FDU survey - ( New Window )
Yeah, that's the one. It's correlation, not causation of course. But you could also see that the channel providing conflicting messages about matters of fact could lead to a lesser grasp of the facts.
Inquiring minds want to know.
I am not in any alt right groups nor follow them. In this case I looked into this one because of the whole tattoo thing and the comments made in this thread. Prior to this I hadn't seen them in the news. Like most things today information passed on by people is biased so if something perks my interest I will look at as much information as I can to form my own opinion. I know my own opinions have their bias but I try to remain open to new information that can change it.
I admit I am mostly conservative/libertarian but I don't follow any specific news outlets on a regular basis. My business puts me in contact with a pretty wide range of people and I like to talk with them all, hear their views and try to understand how they got there.
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In comment 14907383 Kyle_ said:
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and spread on The_Donald.
You know, the breeding ground of the alt-right on the internet. Link - ( New Window )
The term 'orange man bad' is alt-right too? Give me a break.
So pretty much everything you don't like or agree with is alt-right. Gotcha! I guess it's a good way to convince yourself that you have the moral high ground.
Well, you wear your internet forums on your sleeve. Let me guess, /pol/, /r/the_donald, and right wing twitter. So it's easy for people to make judgements. And yes, most people have the moral high ground on the people who send traffic to those sites.
And if you don't go there, well, all the content you gleefully lap up is originating from those places.
You are sure assuming a lot based on the posting of one widely spread meme.
But then again, jumping to nonsensical conclusions is what your media overlords have conditioned you for, just as they did with Covington, Jussie Smollett, Russia Russia Russia and countless other bombshells that turned out to be contrived bullshit
I admit I am mostly conservative/libertarian but I don't follow any specific news outlets on a regular basis. My business puts me in contact with a pretty wide range of people and I like to talk with them all, hear their views and try to understand how they got there.
I'm surprised that you have not seen much of the rise of alt-right movement in the past four or so years. Richard Spencer, the Charlottesville protest, etc. have been prominently displayed through all news outlets.
People may want to overcomplicate what alt-right is and how the entire ideology began; however, alt-right movement today is exactly what it is, a aggressively conservative movement that champions white nationalist/white identity ideology. Most of its protests are marked by number of alt-right members bringing Nazi paraphernalia, Confederate flags, and spouting and chanting white supremacist rhetoric. It is not a movement you want to be associated with if you don't want to be considered a racist, no matter how unfair anyone may think such generalization may be.
2. No announcement of online/limited in-campus classes until the late summer. Education quality is worse than in 1. Parents freak out, and have to scramble to make childcare accomodations. Could be partially offset by fiscal policy put into place over the intervening time period. May also give time for the labor market to recover, or come up with alternatives (tele-commuting) for a fraction of the labor force.
It's a very simplified analysis of a very complex topic, but it's what every region is combating.
Like most of this situation our decisions seem to always be between bad and worse, and varied between hundreds (thousands?) of local leaders whose voices are critical but also perhaps don't have the best vantage point to the bigger picture.
Experts have told us for months testing, tracing, therapeutics, healthcare capacity, and an informed/disciplined community response are the keys to creating an environment of effective containment until vaccine is ready. Those tactics are on display for us to learn from in a variety of different places from SK to everyone's favorite herd immunologists Sweden.
Standing up coordinated world class responses in as many areas as possible is the pathway to creating better options all around, but especially for the economy (and schools, even if modified).
After 2 months of lockdown are we leading the way in any area?
Testing capacity is probably the closest but still muddled (abott false negatives, Washington home test kits shut down by FDA).
Very little discussion of tracing except private initiatives (apple, google, bloomberg).
Therapeutics are promising but also difficult to scale (remdesvir, plasma).
Healthcare capacity improving but PPE still an issue.
Community sentiment? Masks are for pussies and baseball isn't baseball if players can't spit.
Our fight is with the virus and we fight with the weapons we have not the weapons we want. Fighting with the WHO, China, politicians, and each other is mostly just distracting and nonproductive noise. This thread serves as an illustration of our world class capacity for nonproductive noise. It may even be the part of our response that's been best coordinated.
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In comment 14907409 Giants in 07 said:
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In comment 14907383 Kyle_ said:
Quote:
and spread on The_Donald.
You know, the breeding ground of the alt-right on the internet. Link - ( New Window )
The term 'orange man bad' is alt-right too? Give me a break.
So pretty much everything you don't like or agree with is alt-right. Gotcha! I guess it's a good way to convince yourself that you have the moral high ground.
Well, you wear your internet forums on your sleeve. Let me guess, /pol/, /r/the_donald, and right wing twitter. So it's easy for people to make judgements. And yes, most people have the moral high ground on the people who send traffic to those sites.
And if you don't go there, well, all the content you gleefully lap up is originating from those places.
You are sure assuming a lot based on the posting of one widely spread meme.
But then again, jumping to nonsensical conclusions is what your media overlords have conditioned you for, just as they did with Covington, Jussie Smollett, Russia Russia Russia and countless other bombshells that turned out to be contrived bullshit
And I have no clue what Covington is or what Jussie Smollet has to do with anything (or "russia russia russia" -- lol, how reductive), but man, that last sentence only served to prove my point even further.
But uh yeah, you're definitely a free thinker bro.
right now cases are starting to fall in the initial US hot spots
this is the time to set up contact tracing and reinforcing known policies that protect the public - social distancing and masks)
as we try to figure out therapies and drugs that will help mitigate the virus
and work feverishly for a vaccine (which according to a leaked Defense memo won't happen until fall 2021)
instead we have a MORON for a Presidenti who he is worried about his reelection instead of worrying about preparing the nation for the second surge in the fall and winter ..
.
Covid19 happened all over the world and China will get their reckoning
the but fact is USA has had the absolute worse response of any industrialize nation in the world .. which is shocking for those of us who believe in American exceptionalism
right now cases are starting to fall in the initial US hot spots
this is the time to set up contact tracing and reinforcing known policies that protect the public - social distancing and masks)
as we try to figure out therapies and drugs that will help mitigate the virus
and work feverishly for a vaccine (which according to a leaked Defense memo won't happen until fall 2021)
instead we have a MORON for a Presidenti who he is worried about his reelection instead of worrying about preparing the nation for the second surge in the fall and winter ..
.
Covid19 happened all over the world and China will get their reckoning
the but fact is USA has had the absolute worse response of any industrialize nation in the world .. which is shocking for those of us who believe in American exceptionalism
I began reading this post and was actually thinking you were going to have your first fair and coherent thought on this thread (And probably in life), then you became you again.
She decided to keep it carry-out for now but the Mexican restaurant down the street went with dine-in. I talked to the owner the other day and he mentioned he is only seeing about 30% of what his regular dine-in traffic would be. People are not ready to go back to normalcy as of yet, they're still scared
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In comment 14907484 Sonic Youth said:
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In comment 14907409 Giants in 07 said:
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In comment 14907383 Kyle_ said:
Quote:
and spread on The_Donald.
You know, the breeding ground of the alt-right on the internet. Link - ( New Window )
The term 'orange man bad' is alt-right too? Give me a break.
So pretty much everything you don't like or agree with is alt-right. Gotcha! I guess it's a good way to convince yourself that you have the moral high ground.
Well, you wear your internet forums on your sleeve. Let me guess, /pol/, /r/the_donald, and right wing twitter. So it's easy for people to make judgements. And yes, most people have the moral high ground on the people who send traffic to those sites.
And if you don't go there, well, all the content you gleefully lap up is originating from those places.
You are sure assuming a lot based on the posting of one widely spread meme.
But then again, jumping to nonsensical conclusions is what your media overlords have conditioned you for, just as they did with Covington, Jussie Smollett, Russia Russia Russia and countless other bombshells that turned out to be contrived bullshit
No, it's really not an assumption. That is where that shit originates. It's only "widely spread" if you're already in that sphere.
And I have no clue what Covington is or what Jussie Smollet has to do with anything (or "russia russia russia" -- lol, how reductive), but man, that last sentence only served to prove my point even further.
But uh yeah, you're definitely a free thinker bro.
Sonic, did you hear back about the job? Sending positive vibes and rooting for ya!
They go through a bunch of proposed safety measures but here's the overall takeaway.
Areas that can most safely open up (with appropriate distancing and risk mitigation steps) if states have met the Dr. Birx gating criteria but have not yet initiated the reopening process are:
►Doctor offices, clinics and surgery centers with sufficient community PPE.
►Workplaces like retail and manufacturing.
►Parks and other outdoor recreation, lakes, gardens and bike trails.
►Shopping areas and coffee shops where people don’t congregate in large numbers or for extended periods.
►Outdoor weddings and funerals with small groups that physically distance and wear masks when close together.
Additional areas that we hope can open up successfully under significantly modified conditions, but that will benefit from further technical assessment on how processes should be modified that would allow them to operate with lower risks:
►Day care centers
►Summer camps and youth sports
►Restaurants
►Schools
►Movie theaters and small entertainment venues
►Sporting events with very limited or no crowds
►TV and film production
►Colleges and universities
►Bars
Areas that should remain closed until risks can be significantly reduced:
►Large-scale events like concerts, sports with high attendance
►Large conventions and other activities involving significant travel and congregation
Health leaders: We stuck together to #StayHome, now we can start together to #OpenSafely - ( New Window )
Apple and Google release marks 'watershed moment' for contact-tracing apps - ( New Window )
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you are 100% correct .. we are entering a window of opportunity now
right now cases are starting to fall in the initial US hot spots
this is the time to set up contact tracing and reinforcing known policies that protect the public - social distancing and masks)
as we try to figure out therapies and drugs that will help mitigate the virus
and work feverishly for a vaccine (which according to a leaked Defense memo won't happen until fall 2021)
instead we have a MORON for a Presidenti who he is worried about his reelection instead of worrying about preparing the nation for the second surge in the fall and winter ..
.
Covid19 happened all over the world and China will get their reckoning
the but fact is USA has had the absolute worse response of any industrialize nation in the world .. which is shocking for those of us who believe in American exceptionalism
I began reading this post and was actually thinking you were going to have your first fair and coherent thought on this thread (And probably in life), then you became you again.
Sonic, did you hear back about the job? Sending positive vibes and rooting for ya! [/quote]Hey Jim!
The way it's been going down has been sort of taking a toll on me, but I guess these are uncharted times for everyone.
After 8 rounds of interviews and an assessment, there was an 11 day layover from 5/1 to like 5/11. I reached out for clarity (especially since I knew the interviews went very well), to see when the final round would be scheduled. It was scheduled last Thursday, where I met with the CFO. We had a great conversation, and again, anecdotally, I felt it went very well. I've done this enough to know when things are good, bad, "meh", or "crushed it".
Hit the CEO with the final "any concerns you have for me I should address?" question, and was told by the CFO "everyone had awesome things to say about you, no concerns on my end, let me give feedback to the team -- you should hear back fast, it'll be a quick turnaround time, we won't leave you hanging".
So I expected to hear around Monday or Tuesday. Got an email on Monday saying they'd let me know this week (thanks, I guess?). Got an email today asking for a final reference check from my previous manager, who I offered to put them in touch with.
So fingers crossed, but man, all these interviews and the 8-9 week process for a job that really isn't paid enough to require this is pretty insane. It feels like they're looking for a reason to NOT hire me at the salary presented (even though it's still a pay cut on my end), because the salary they offered was in early April, and maybe they can get a less skilled person for their needs.
Just a lot to figure out. At this point, I really just need an answer. Where I sleep in literally 12 days hinges entirely on their decision....
I have no idea how they plan on doing this, but it's world class stupid. And it's largely created on trustees who have a very myopic view of the world, and view "no shirt, no shoes, no service" as acceptable, but mandates to wear a mask as Newsome's march to 3rd world dictatorship.
A poll just came out that said that 83% of Americans are mildly concerned about what happens when we open up. That means that potentially 17% (or more) has no qualms about the virus, and simply don't care about their ability to transmit.
We don't have a good system in place for pandemics for this country. It's not wholly related to the healthcare delivery system (probably a small part), but relates to the geographic divide, socioeconomics, and demographics that make us a unique challenge.
I have no idea how they plan on doing this, but it's world class stupid. And it's largely created on trustees who have a very myopic view of the world, and view "no shirt, no shoes, no service" as acceptable, but mandates to wear a mask as Newsome's march to 3rd world dictatorship.
A poll just came out that said that 83% of Americans are mildly concerned about what happens when we open up. That means that potentially 17% (or more) has no qualms about the virus, and simply don't care about their ability to transmit.
We don't have a good system in place for pandemics for this country. It's not wholly related to the healthcare delivery system (probably a small part), but relates to the geographic divide, socioeconomics, and demographics that make us a unique challenge.
There have been a few stories in the last few days about places that reopened in GA and TX at the end of April or beginning of May that now had to close down (believe both were Churches) and it's unfortunate but seeing additional economic pain may be the only way to believing for the 17%. Its doubly unfortunate that it may end up prolonging things for the rest of the country too (or at least close neighbor states).
This link is an interesting little tool that gives some snap shot of movement behavior by state/country. Some states like FL look like they are acting cautiously despite the lack of closures while others like GA...don't.
https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility - ( New Window )
The economy is in bad shape and we are causing very real long term problems particularly in the cities in many different areas. I run a few times a week in my city and I see so many businesses that are just going to collapse.......
Be smart, unselfish, look out for others buts let's continue to open things up. I think we should should measure our country against ourselves but for those into comparisons......that test is a year or more from now at the earliest with other factors than a death count. I am betting on America still standing strong.
I do believe we really have to look at the big cities long term. There is no assurance that this may not happen again in the next few years. That said we need to get the system of dealing with this better....we can and will. Division only prolongs that.
This was a global catastrophe that happened to hit our tristate area the hardest, not just a tristate area problem.
The economy is in bad shape and we are causing very real long term problems particularly in the cities in many different areas. I run a few times a week in my city and I see so many businesses that are just going to collapse.......
Be smart, unselfish, look out for others buts let's continue to open things up. I think we should should measure our country against ourselves but for those into comparisons......that test is a year or more from now at the earliest with other factors than a death count. I am betting on America still standing strong.
I do believe we really have to look at the big cities long term. There is no assurance that this may not happen again in the next few years. That said we need to get the system of dealing with this better....we can and will. Division only prolongs that.
Gotta love the subtext here. You said it all without saying it.
1) You NYCers and those in that area, this is your problem, you're the death count
2) And let's be aware of Cuomos (awful) nursing home strategy, as that is the reason it's so bad here.
Hey man, in the tri-state area, the one you so deride behind the subtext of your post, our cases are going down.
In pretty much the rest of the country., it's flat (with social distancing) or straight up increasing.
I want things to go back to normal, as long as we are all safe. I think my city (Jersey City) is being more cautious than they have to, but I agree with it.
But I will do everything I can to fight against the narrative of "this was overrated / this was a NYC problem / dirty urban blue states are the ones that caused and dealt with this" that is clearly coalescing. Tri-State is where we pushed our number significantly down. Rest of the country is ticking upwards.
But shit man, whenever the flyover states want to co-opt 9/11 as means for Islamoaphobia or general xenophobia, they got carte blanche - but yet are so willing to portray the NYC metro as a dirty, disease ridden urban blight they must be protected from.
Lastly, fuck this "open it up" misnomer. WTF do you think everyone is doing? Things are "opening up". There isn't a substantial "lockdown forever" crowd. And btw, the lockdown was never enforced. Someone should tell that to the 4chan dipshits playing commando at State Houses.
Plus, its quite apparent that from a 50,000 ft view, this is a demand side issue. Open shit up, people in the most populous parts of the country aren't gonna snap back to normal right away.
I have disposable income. I'm not spending it because 1) I haven't gotten my stimulus check yet, 2) haven't gotten 1 cent from NYS for unemployment, and 3) am therefore hoarding my money. "Opening it up" won't change that.
Yes, it's harder for Covid to get into Rural areas. But the problem is, those areas could potentially get hit relatively worse than urban areas due to lack of medical resources. So while it's easy to say "this is a big city problem", it doesn't mean the threat wasn't/isn't still there for rural areas.
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if you take out the tri state area deaths what are we looking at? Then on top of that if they had handled the nursing homes better where would we be? We had some really bad leadership in these areas.
The economy is in bad shape and we are causing very real long term problems particularly in the cities in many different areas. I run a few times a week in my city and I see so many businesses that are just going to collapse.......
Be smart, unselfish, look out for others buts let's continue to open things up. I think we should should measure our country against ourselves but for those into comparisons......that test is a year or more from now at the earliest with other factors than a death count. I am betting on America still standing strong.
I do believe we really have to look at the big cities long term. There is no assurance that this may not happen again in the next few years. That said we need to get the system of dealing with this better....we can and will. Division only prolongs that.
Gotta love the subtext here. You said it all without saying it.
1) You NYCers and those in that area, this is your problem, you're the death count
2) And let's be aware of Cuomos (awful) nursing home strategy, as that is the reason it's so bad here.
Hey man, in the tri-state area, the one you so deride behind the subtext of your post, our cases are going down.
In pretty much the rest of the country., it's flat (with social distancing) or straight up increasing.
I want things to go back to normal, as long as we are all safe. I think my city (Jersey City) is being more cautious than they have to, but I agree with it.
But I will do everything I can to fight against the narrative of "this was overrated / this was a NYC problem / dirty urban blue states are the ones that caused and dealt with this" that is clearly coalescing. Tri-State is where we pushed our number significantly down. Rest of the country is ticking upwards.
But shit man, whenever the flyover states want to co-opt 9/11 as means for Islamoaphobia or general xenophobia, they got carte blanche - but yet are so willing to portray the NYC metro as a dirty, disease ridden urban blight they must be protected from.
Lastly, fuck this "open it up" misnomer. WTF do you think everyone is doing? Things are "opening up". There isn't a substantial "lockdown forever" crowd. And btw, the lockdown was never enforced. Someone should tell that to the 4chan dipshits playing commando at State Houses.
Plus, its quite apparent that from a 50,000 ft view, this is a demand side issue. Open shit up, people in the most populous parts of the country aren't gonna snap back to normal right away.
I have disposable income. I'm not spending it because 1) I haven't gotten my stimulus check yet, 2) haven't gotten 1 cent from NYS for unemployment, and 3) am therefore hoarding my money. "Opening it up" won't change that.
There was also a competing narrative coalescing that certain red states like Florida were dangerous idiots for not doing more. I don't know the poster but instead of flying off the handle at him maybe engage a bit more with his substance rather than his purported subtext?
Right next to it, they have a "PCP" score. That is how many doctors per 10,000 (could be 100,000; can't remember off the top of my head) that you need to reach some semblance of quality care.
If you distinguish between inner-city urban, regular urban, and highly rural, even inner-city urban is leaps and bounds ahead of highly rural areas. Places like pretty much all of Appalachia, large swaths of Texas and the midwest, the very northern (and eastern) parts of California, etc.
It's not simply a lack of providers problem in those areas; it's lack of facilities, distance to facilities, etc. Those areas could be swamped if COVID gets to them.
.
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Yeah. In an area I'm familiar with in CA, they are going to do "small-scale" graduation ceremonies in June.
I have no idea how they plan on doing this, but it's world class stupid. And it's largely created on trustees who have a very myopic view of the world, and view "no shirt, no shoes, no service" as acceptable, but mandates to wear a mask as Newsome's march to 3rd world dictatorship.
A poll just came out that said that 83% of Americans are mildly concerned about what happens when we open up. That means that potentially 17% (or more) has no qualms about the virus, and simply don't care about their ability to transmit.
We don't have a good system in place for pandemics for this country. It's not wholly related to the healthcare delivery system (probably a small part), but relates to the geographic divide, socioeconomics, and demographics that make us a unique challenge.
There have been a few stories in the last few days about places that reopened in GA and TX at the end of April or beginning of May that now had to close down (believe both were Churches) and it's unfortunate but seeing additional economic pain may be the only way to believing for the 17%. Its doubly unfortunate that it may end up prolonging things for the rest of the country too (or at least close neighbor states).
This link is an interesting little tool that gives some snap shot of movement behavior by state/country. Some states like FL look like they are acting cautiously despite the lack of closures while others like GA...don't. https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility - ( New Window )
The mobility trend data are a bit disconcerting. If you look at other cell phone data sites, the broad implications are just as concerning; people may be travelling to different places, but they are still travelling.
There was an interesting article in SLO that talked about how traffic accidents have been up this month, compared to same time last year. A lot of the central coast communities have told the Central Valley to fuck off for travelling.
Furniture/home furnishings is down 18.5% in 2020 (compared to 1st four months of 2020). Loss of $7 billion since February.
Electronics and appliance stores down 17.4% in 2020. Loss of $6 billion since February.
Food/beverage stores. Up 12.7% in 2020 (pretty much grocery stores). Up $17 billion between Feb and March, only up $6 billion between Feb and April.
Clothing stores down 37.5%. Lost $20 billion since February.
Nonstore retailers (Amazon) up 13.8%, or $10 billion.
Restaurants and bars down 16.6%, or $33 billion.
On net, we have lost $125 billion in consumer spending between February and April.
Total food consumption is down (since grocery store + liquor store increased by $6 billion, while restaurant/bar fell by $33 billion). Total consumption of other "stuff" is down (compare the $10 billion of online shopping to other stores).
The problem isn't going to be policies in place as we re-open. It's the impact of the virus on savings and incomes, the future of the workplace, and economic uncertainty. No one's spending because of the virus; we have no idea what's going on. People aren't comfortable going out.
And as long as the virus is with us, we won't recover, especially without large-scale treatments or vaccines.
Furniture/home furnishings is down 18.5% in 2020 (compared to 1st four months of 2020). Loss of $7 billion since February.
Electronics and appliance stores down 17.4% in 2020. Loss of $6 billion since February.
Food/beverage stores. Up 12.7% in 2020 (pretty much grocery stores). Up $17 billion between Feb and March, only up $6 billion between Feb and April.
Clothing stores down 37.5%. Lost $20 billion since February.
Nonstore retailers (Amazon) up 13.8%, or $10 billion.
Restaurants and bars down 16.6%, or $33 billion.
On net, we have lost $125 billion in consumer spending between February and April.
Total food consumption is down (since grocery store + liquor store increased by $6 billion, while restaurant/bar fell by $33 billion). Total consumption of other "stuff" is down (compare the $10 billion of online shopping to other stores).
The problem isn't going to be policies in place as we re-open. It's the impact of the virus on savings and incomes, the future of the workplace, and economic uncertainty. No one's spending because of the virus; we have no idea what's going on. People aren't comfortable going out.
And as long as the virus is with us, we won't recover, especially without large-scale treatments or vaccines.
All that money not spent, where did it go? Did not spending it it make the people who otherwise would have spent it better off (money still in the bank. lower credit card debt and so on)? Recovery: Maybe this is the real test of what all of us actually think we need to have instead of what we want to have on some insane lark of excessive spending -- meaning a lot of stuff is never going to come back and perhaps ought not to. Is it a recovery if what doesn't come back is just unwanted, excessive junk? Or stuff reliant on screaming, closely packed crowds?
Yes, it will "subsidize" poor behavior on the part of states. But the link below suggests that certain states that are more in trouble are probably net givers to the government...
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/
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Just looking at the Census data, here are some disconcerting facts.
Furniture/home furnishings is down 18.5% in 2020 (compared to 1st four months of 2020). Loss of $7 billion since February.
Electronics and appliance stores down 17.4% in 2020. Loss of $6 billion since February.
Food/beverage stores. Up 12.7% in 2020 (pretty much grocery stores). Up $17 billion between Feb and March, only up $6 billion between Feb and April.
Clothing stores down 37.5%. Lost $20 billion since February.
Nonstore retailers (Amazon) up 13.8%, or $10 billion.
Restaurants and bars down 16.6%, or $33 billion.
On net, we have lost $125 billion in consumer spending between February and April.
Total food consumption is down (since grocery store + liquor store increased by $6 billion, while restaurant/bar fell by $33 billion). Total consumption of other "stuff" is down (compare the $10 billion of online shopping to other stores).
The problem isn't going to be policies in place as we re-open. It's the impact of the virus on savings and incomes, the future of the workplace, and economic uncertainty. No one's spending because of the virus; we have no idea what's going on. People aren't comfortable going out.
And as long as the virus is with us, we won't recover, especially without large-scale treatments or vaccines.
All that money not spent, where did it go? Did not spending it it make the people who otherwise would have spent it better off (money still in the bank. lower credit card debt and so on)? Recovery: Maybe this is the real test of what all of us actually think we need to have instead of what we want to have on some insane lark of excessive spending -- meaning a lot of stuff is never going to come back and perhaps ought not to. Is it a recovery if what doesn't come back is just unwanted, excessive junk? Or stuff reliant on screaming, closely packed crowds?
It's reduced spending for each of the newly unemployed by about $3,800. $735 per each person in the workforce. My best guess? Either paying off small debts to build up some breathing space, building up savings because they're worried about the future of their employment (and unemployment benefits may be starting to tail off), paying for necessities and foregoing luxuries (something you posited).
But, even if that's the case, and we're seeing a change in consumption patterns, that's a slow recovery; our economy is built on luxury spending. Businesses have been built to take advantage of luxury spending.
Kicker....enjoy your stats and thanks for all the useful information. I agree that fear is a big part. I look at the alternatives and it seems worse long term by not really opening things and taking stricter measures protecting the most vulnerable. I think each individual doing their part is a huge component to this.
Kicker....enjoy your stats and thanks for all the useful information. I agree that fear is a big part. I look at the alternatives and it seems worse long term by not really opening things and taking stricter measures protecting the most vulnerable. I think each individual doing their part is a huge component to this.
That's a problem; will "moral suasion" (i.e., do your duty) really work?
There's a sizable minority that considers this a hoax or "overkill", which can dramatically limit any potential individual-level solutions.
upload images
Ok, this is for Lines, from one of my papers.
This is why the rural area issue is very bad. The higher the HPSA decile (the more impediments to care), the more likely you are in a rural area, and the more opioids you consume and more time you spend in poor health).
COVID in rural areas with limited ability to seek care near them could be devastating.
Sonic, did you hear back about the job? Sending positive vibes and rooting for ya!
The way it's been going down has been sort of taking a toll on me, but I guess these are uncharted times for everyone.
After 8 rounds of interviews and an assessment, there was an 11 day layover from 5/1 to like 5/11. I reached out for clarity (especially since I knew the interviews went very well), to see when the final round would be scheduled. It was scheduled last Thursday, where I met with the CFO. We had a great conversation, and again, anecdotally, I felt it went very well. I've done this enough to know when things are good, bad, "meh", or "crushed it".
Hit the CEO with the final "any concerns you have for me I should address?" question, and was told by the CFO "everyone had awesome things to say about you, no concerns on my end, let me give feedback to the team -- you should hear back fast, it'll be a quick turnaround time, we won't leave you hanging".
So I expected to hear around Monday or Tuesday. Got an email on Monday saying they'd let me know this week (thanks, I guess?). Got an email today asking for a final reference check from my previous manager, who I offered to put them in touch with.
So fingers crossed, but man, all these interviews and the 8-9 week process for a job that really isn't paid enough to require this is pretty insane. It feels like they're looking for a reason to NOT hire me at the salary presented (even though it's still a pay cut on my end), because the salary they offered was in early April, and maybe they can get a less skilled person for their needs.
Just a lot to figure out. At this point, I really just need an answer. Where I sleep in literally 12 days hinges entirely on their decision.... [/quote]
Positive vibes, I gotta good feeling. And no matter what happens short-term, long term you will be great. Not that you need a pep talk or anything, but I can tell you that life rarely goes according to plan, and almost everyone goes through trials and tribulations. one way or another. Keep pushing forward, take care of yourself, workout, and stay positive. Let us know what happens too. Cheers and good luck.
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In comment 14907738 kicker said:
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Just looking at the Census data, here are some disconcerting facts. . . .
On net, we have lost $125 billion in consumer spending between February and April. . . .
The problem isn't going to be policies in place as we re-open. It's the impact of the virus on savings and incomes, the future of the workplace, and economic uncertainty. No one's spending because of the virus; we have no idea what's going on. People aren't comfortable going out.
. . .
All that money not spent, where did it go? . . .
. . .
It's reduced spending for each of the newly unemployed by about $3,800. $735 per each person in the workforce. My best guess? Either paying off small debts to build up some breathing space, building up savings because they're worried about the future of their employment (and unemployment benefits may be starting to tail off), paying for necessities and foregoing luxuries (something you posited).
But, even if that's the case, and we're seeing a change in consumption patterns, that's a slow recovery; our economy is built on luxury spending. Businesses have been built to take advantage of luxury spending.
What percent of spending, do you guess, was "luxury"? Hard to figure, I guess, when people were buying vastly more expensive homes and cars than they actually could afford to buy. That's different from having enough month to month to pay home rent. As to the"luxury" end, what's happening with "used" luxury real estate and cars? How much is being, or will have to be, just dumped at unreal prices if this continues for a while?
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In comment 14907718 Lines of Scrimmage said:
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if you take out the tri state area deaths what are we looking at? Then on top of that if they had handled the nursing homes better where would we be? We had some really bad leadership in these areas.
The economy is in bad shape and we are causing very real long term problems particularly in the cities in many different areas. I run a few times a week in my city and I see so many businesses that are just going to collapse.......
Be smart, unselfish, look out for others buts let's continue to open things up. I think we should should measure our country against ourselves but for those into comparisons......that test is a year or more from now at the earliest with other factors than a death count. I am betting on America still standing strong.
I do believe we really have to look at the big cities long term. There is no assurance that this may not happen again in the next few years. That said we need to get the system of dealing with this better....we can and will. Division only prolongs that.
Gotta love the subtext here. You said it all without saying it.
1) You NYCers and those in that area, this is your problem, you're the death count
2) And let's be aware of Cuomos (awful) nursing home strategy, as that is the reason it's so bad here.
Hey man, in the tri-state area, the one you so deride behind the subtext of your post, our cases are going down.
In pretty much the rest of the country., it's flat (with social distancing) or straight up increasing.
I want things to go back to normal, as long as we are all safe. I think my city (Jersey City) is being more cautious than they have to, but I agree with it.
But I will do everything I can to fight against the narrative of "this was overrated / this was a NYC problem / dirty urban blue states are the ones that caused and dealt with this" that is clearly coalescing. Tri-State is where we pushed our number significantly down. Rest of the country is ticking upwards.
But shit man, whenever the flyover states want to co-opt 9/11 as means for Islamoaphobia or general xenophobia, they got carte blanche - but yet are so willing to portray the NYC metro as a dirty, disease ridden urban blight they must be protected from.
Lastly, fuck this "open it up" misnomer. WTF do you think everyone is doing? Things are "opening up". There isn't a substantial "lockdown forever" crowd. And btw, the lockdown was never enforced. Someone should tell that to the 4chan dipshits playing commando at State Houses.
Plus, its quite apparent that from a 50,000 ft view, this is a demand side issue. Open shit up, people in the most populous parts of the country aren't gonna snap back to normal right away.
I have disposable income. I'm not spending it because 1) I haven't gotten my stimulus check yet, 2) haven't gotten 1 cent from NYS for unemployment, and 3) am therefore hoarding my money. "Opening it up" won't change that.
There was also a competing narrative coalescing that certain red states like Florida were dangerous idiots for not doing more. I don't know the poster but instead of flying off the handle at him maybe engage a bit more with his substance rather than his purported subtext?
Maybe you should know the poster more and understand why I chose to put the spotlight on the subtext?
I'm not an idiot, I drilled down on that for a reason. You know how to use this message board - if you had questions, you could look at his posts.
The "talk" about not opening up schools in Fall is contingency planning. At least in a majority of the states, there is nothing substantive to it, and the presumption (even amongst some of the more liberal states, such as California, the talk amongst the Superintendants is that school will be there in the Fall, with potentially some modifications).
I know a lot of researchers are looking at some of the European states that are re-opening now, and what's going to happen. The next few weeks worth of data will really determine what's going to happen.
Furniture/home furnishings is down 18.5% in 2020 (compared to 1st four months of 2020). Loss of $7 billion since February.
Electronics and appliance stores down 17.4% in 2020. Loss of $6 billion since February.
Food/beverage stores. Up 12.7% in 2020 (pretty much grocery stores). Up $17 billion between Feb and March, only up $6 billion between Feb and April.
Clothing stores down 37.5%. Lost $20 billion since February.
Nonstore retailers (Amazon) up 13.8%, or $10 billion.
Restaurants and bars down 16.6%, or $33 billion.
On net, we have lost $125 billion in consumer spending between February and April.
Total food consumption is down (since grocery store + liquor store increased by $6 billion, while restaurant/bar fell by $33 billion). Total consumption of other "stuff" is down (compare the $10 billion of online shopping to other stores).
The problem isn't going to be policies in place as we re-open. It's the impact of the virus on savings and incomes, the future of the workplace, and economic uncertainty. No one's spending because of the virus; we have no idea what's going on. People aren't comfortable going out.
And as long as the virus is with us, we won't recover, especially without large-scale treatments or vaccines.
As you've mentioned, the more interesting dynamic to observe will not be the ability but rather the willingness for consumption. Obviously we saw the savings rate spike to 13.1% in March...how much of that is temporary? One measure I saw estimated that the more liquid/financial portion of the household savings rate was about 12% in March and could hit 15% in April, so this would indicate that the spike in the headline figure was comprised of "less sticky" savings that could be deployed as consumption in quick order...but people still need to want to consumer and the stickiness in the buildup of savings probably increases the longer that commerce is disrupted.
Then there are questions on any secular or even structural shifts in savings/consumption. I had believed that the pre-COVID savings rate was too high and made the case that the aggregate American consumer was in fact too conservatively positioned or even under levered, expecting a period of normalization so long as the economic backdrop remained strong to benign. Obviously that thesis has obviously gone out the window with COVID. Now it'll be interesting to see at what level savings and consumption settles into in the intermediate-term (2021). I don't think we're looking at a V or U-shaped recovery led by the consumer. A new cycle of business investment (onshoring, automation, etc) might have to assume a leadership role.
Also, nice to see the CBO revise up their preliminary projections for 2021 but it still doesn't get us back where we started pre-COVID. One could look at this release as either more impetus for policymakers to hit the fiscal gas or a means for others to justify no additional stimulus because of slight upward revisions.
What will be interesting is juxtaposing the state-level unemployment numbers on Friday with the larger federal number, and seeing how that will be readjusted. 6 million workers were discouraged in the last update; the unemployment could have been about 17.3%. It will also be interesting to witness the new UI claims; it's not going back to normal, but in the millions again is going to put further stress on the households that don't really have any ability to outlast this thing.
Nearly 16-percentage points for <HS educated. About 15 for HS educated. Even middle class, white-collar, BS/BA jobs had an 11 pp increase.
I've never been very optimistic about the long-term feasibility of late 2019's median American consumer. I think we saw a long retrenchment that really limits GDP potential until we see a ramp up in manufacturing. It would not surprise me in 10 years to see consumer spending be in the low 60's, as a contributor to GDP.
There are 2 major policies that will really determine Q1 2021. School in Fall 2020, and if there (I want to say when, but I'll say if) is a large-scale reinfection in Fall 2020.
Lol no worries. Good luck on the job!
With many people thinking that we can go back to some semblance of normal and with some people thinking that social distancing and wearing masks is unnecessary or even a sign of government control, I don't have much optimism that we'll be in a better place a week or even month from now.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83% — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team.
The findings are based on infectious disease modeling that gauges how reduced contact between people starting in mid-March slowed transmission of the virus. Shaman’s team modeled what would have happened if those same changes had taken place one or two weeks earlier and estimated the spread of infections and deaths until May 3.
The results show that as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flare-ups. And they show that each day that officials waited to impose restrictions in early March came at a great cost.
Link - ( New Window )
With many people thinking that we can go back to some semblance of normal and with some people thinking that social distancing and wearing masks is unnecessary or even a sign of government control, I don't have much optimism that we'll be in a better place a week or even month from now.
Quote:
If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83% — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team.
The findings are based on infectious disease modeling that gauges how reduced contact between people starting in mid-March slowed transmission of the virus. Shaman’s team modeled what would have happened if those same changes had taken place one or two weeks earlier and estimated the spread of infections and deaths until May 3.
The results show that as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flare-ups. And they show that each day that officials waited to impose restrictions in early March came at a great cost.
Link - ( New Window )
At this point everyone is dug into their point of view so believe what you like. Personally i dont see much point in a one-sized-fits-all "model" ... never have... when 80% of deaths according to the latest CDC data are of ages 65+
If we'd better protected our nursing and assisted living homes - no matter when we closed society - we would have saved those # of lives. Our response to this pandemic has been way too generalist and high level from the damn start - it should have been much, much, much more targeted both from a safety and an economic standpoint at supporting those at meaningful risk.
We have no way of knowing had we closed 1 week earlier how many # of elderly lives this would have saved. These models, as much as they try, have huge margin for error -- even the one in Washington seems to move by 50k death estimates every week.
RC - on the social distancing and masks stuff - everyone should do their part but none of the official models assume 100% of the population comply.
Anyway, this conversation has really deteriorated the last week or so and become a political debate at this point and everything Eric in the past has told us not to discuss... and the truth is there's not much "new news" coming out on this topic so bowing out.
Stay healthy everyone... hopefully stay employed... and Sonic best of luck on getting that job, if they're asking for references that is a great sign and things sound promising. Remember that even in normal times the hiring process can take some time getting signatures and sign-offs and onboarding... try to stay patient.
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I am not in any alt right groups nor follow them. In this case I looked into this one because of the whole tattoo thing and the comments made in this thread. Prior to this I hadn't seen them in the news. Like most things today information passed on by people is biased so if something perks my interest I will look at as much information as I can to form my own opinion. I know my own opinions have their bias but I try to remain open to new information that can change it.
I admit I am mostly conservative/libertarian but I don't follow any specific news outlets on a regular basis. My business puts me in contact with a pretty wide range of people and I like to talk with them all, hear their views and try to understand how they got there.
I'm surprised that you have not seen much of the rise of alt-right movement in the past four or so years. Richard Spencer, the Charlottesville protest, etc. have been prominently displayed through all news outlets.
People may want to overcomplicate what alt-right is and how the entire ideology began; however, alt-right movement today is exactly what it is, a aggressively conservative movement that champions white nationalist/white identity ideology. Most of its protests are marked by number of alt-right members bringing Nazi paraphernalia, Confederate flags, and spouting and chanting white supremacist rhetoric. It is not a movement you want to be associated with if you don't want to be considered a racist, no matter how unfair anyone may think such generalization may be.
I didn't say I haven't seen the "alt rights" rise but if I see nazi's I immediately don't have to wonder if they are racist, but just because a protest draws racist groups doesn't mean that all of the groups that may be protesting are racist or have a racist agenda. I also think in many of these situations the media likes to focus on the racist groups or even help perpetuate the idea that a group is racist because it sells or fits a narrative.
If a group, like the 3% ers, states their mission, denounces racism, says they are open to all like minded people, and tries to distance themselves from racial controversy like the statements made about Charlottesville yet are still labeled as racist it seems wrong to me. Racism continues to be a large problem but to unfairly assign that label to people is almost as bad.
This week about half of my liquor and beer salespeople have started to return to at least their large accounts. The ones that came have been pretty much locked down since mid March. The difference between the people who have been working through this and the ones coming out now is stark. Some of them actually looked afraid and kept 20ft distance. It made me think of how much I have changed over the last 2 months, how much less I wash my hands and other little things.
I hope for the best but as things open I fear the numbers will start to rise again.
If a group, like the 3% ers, states their mission, denounces racism, says they are open to all like minded people, and tries to distance themselves from racial controversy like the statements made about Charlottesville yet are still labeled as racist it seems wrong to me. Racism continues to be a large problem but to unfairly assign that label to people is almost as bad.
And that is also why I specifically said that generalization of groups is often unfair. However, every organization has its own branding, and if your brand is being coopted by a group you don't want to represent your brand, then either you go hard against those people and their ideologies or you look at your mission to see why such people keep joining your ranks. Tepid denouncements while still allowing those people to be part of and represent your organizations isn't going to help your organization be seen as anything but what the public perception is.
As far as the Three Percenters go, it's a mixed bag organization. While the organization itself may declare that it's not a white nationalist group and may even denounce such ideology in its charter, if number of its members are actually white nationalists and more flock to it, then it's not doing a good job of ensuring that its brand is protected. So while such militias may say that it's against white nationalism and racism, many of them do so tepidly and in words only. They often are breeding grounds for white nationalism based on the actions of its members.
With many people thinking that we can go back to some semblance of normal and with some people thinking that social distancing and wearing masks is unnecessary or even a sign of government control, I don't have much optimism that we'll be in a better place a week or even month from now.
Quote:
If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83% — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team.
The findings are based on infectious disease modeling that gauges how reduced contact between people starting in mid-March slowed transmission of the virus. Shaman’s team modeled what would have happened if those same changes had taken place one or two weeks earlier and estimated the spread of infections and deaths until May 3.
The results show that as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flare-ups. And they show that each day that officials waited to impose restrictions in early March came at a great cost.
Link - ( New Window )
At this point, every disease and economic model is going to have lots of room for error...but, given that we have some "variation" in how long after the first KNOWN COVID death states started implementing policy, we can estimate effects that way (controlling for population density, etc.).
Most studies have found that earlier implementation of policies were effective. They never mentioned the magnitude, but it was significant.
Most studies have found that earlier implementation of policies were effective. They never mentioned the magnitude, but it was significant.
Thanks, kicker. You were definitely one of the people I was hoping would provide your perspective on this study.
Hope you and your family are doing well, man.
With many people thinking that we can go back to some semblance of normal and with some people thinking that social distancing and wearing masks is unnecessary or even a sign of government control, I don't have much optimism that we'll be in a better place a week or even month from now.
Quote:
If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83% — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
Under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference. That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team.
The findings are based on infectious disease modeling that gauges how reduced contact between people starting in mid-March slowed transmission of the virus. Shaman’s team modeled what would have happened if those same changes had taken place one or two weeks earlier and estimated the spread of infections and deaths until May 3.
The results show that as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flare-ups. And they show that each day that officials waited to impose restrictions in early March came at a great cost.
Link - ( New Window )
If I'm not mistaken, as of March 1, I believe the number of known cases in the US was around 100 and number of deaths in the low single digits.
The Columbia "estimates" (if they can really be relied on, I don't know) certainly paint a pretty shocking picture about the speed at which these things can blow up.
Realistically, though, any laments about our leadership not having locked down on March 1st are completely unrealistic. The thought that anybody would (or in my opinion, should) accept a stay-at-home order with national number of cases in the triple digits and deaths in single digits is hard to imagine.
This is surely not a defense of current leadership. I've got no interest in that and likely agree more with those who would condemn than defend on that front. I just find some of the 20/20 hindsight to be more than a little bit detached from reality.
Hopefully we've learned a LOT about preparedness and other aspect of pandemic management from the ordeal, because we sure haven't been perfect to put it lightly. I hope that one of the things we think we've learned is NOT that we need to completely slam the brakes on life/economy/etc with known infections at 100 nationally.
But hey, again, who could've seen this coming, except for everyone who saw this coming.
Given what we're seeing, yes, most likely it was.
Are we going to have to re-establish some new normal soon? Yes, we will.
The Columbia "estimates" (if they can really be relied on, I don't know) certainly paint a pretty shocking picture about the speed at which these things can blow up.
Realistically, though, any laments about our leadership not having locked down on March 1st are completely unrealistic. The thought that anybody would (or in my opinion, should) accept a stay-at-home order with national number of cases in the triple digits and deaths in single digits is hard to imagine.
This is surely not a defense of current leadership. I've got no interest in that and likely agree more with those who would condemn than defend on that front. I just find some of the 20/20 hindsight to be more than a little bit detached from reality.
Hopefully we've learned a LOT about preparedness and other aspect of pandemic management from the ordeal, because we sure haven't been perfect to put it lightly. I hope that one of the things we think we've learned is NOT that we need to completely slam the brakes on life/economy/etc with known infections at 100 nationally.
I agree with you that people most surely would not have accepted social distancing back in March 1; however, this study can be viewed more so as showing that social distancing is effective and thus we need to continue to do so as we begin to open up. Instead of doing what a bunch of idiots are doing flocking to restaurants and bars without any form of social distancing, doing a phased and controlled reopening may mean staving off a new spike in the coming weeks/months.
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If I'm not mistaken, as of March 1, I believe the number of known cases in the US was around 100 and number of deaths in the low single digits.
The Columbia "estimates" (if they can really be relied on, I don't know) certainly paint a pretty shocking picture about the speed at which these things can blow up.
Realistically, though, any laments about our leadership not having locked down on March 1st are completely unrealistic. The thought that anybody would (or in my opinion, should) accept a stay-at-home order with national number of cases in the triple digits and deaths in single digits is hard to imagine.
This is surely not a defense of current leadership. I've got no interest in that and likely agree more with those who would condemn than defend on that front. I just find some of the 20/20 hindsight to be more than a little bit detached from reality.
Hopefully we've learned a LOT about preparedness and other aspect of pandemic management from the ordeal, because we sure haven't been perfect to put it lightly. I hope that one of the things we think we've learned is NOT that we need to completely slam the brakes on life/economy/etc with known infections at 100 nationally.
I agree with you that people most surely would not have accepted social distancing back in March 1; however, this study can be viewed more so as showing that social distancing is effective and thus we need to continue to do so as we begin to open up. Instead of doing what a bunch of idiots are doing flocking to restaurants and bars without any form of social distancing, doing a phased and controlled reopening may mean staving off a new spike in the coming weeks/months.
absolutely agree. I didn't mean to suggest that you in particular were doing what I described toward the end of my post. Apologies if that didn't come across.
Hell, I remember rocco starting a thread whether NYC was ready for COVID-19 & making posts that I considered fire & brimstone like, but that turned out to be much closer to what happened than I thought.
In that time, first deaths were reported in 24 states.
That's a lot of missed opportunity.
at the time many were saying she over reacted
San Francisco County
infected 2,179
deaths 36
Compared in populations
Columbus Ohio.
infected 4,793
deaths : 200
I tend to agree more with MAB more broadly. I think history will look back upon this pandemic, at least in the U.S., as having been regionalized and relatively concentrated with a response that was far too uniform and rigid. Obviously benefit of hindsight, second wave to come, etc but for many of the same reasons why the "Swedish Model" wouldn't work in the U.S., a more-or-less uniform response across 50 states and different demographics also exacerbates the total loss.
As with many things in life, the most optimal response to the pandemic was/is probably in between the two extreme positions that seem to have emerged (minimize sickness vs minimize economic decline)
Then people started dying in Iran, no one knew it was there. The Italy and it was clear it spreads and it puts a lot of people in the hospital. Enough that it threatened to overwhelm the medical system. This was not an ordinary flu, many thought I meant this would be the end times, but it was more that this was not an ordinary flu and it posed a danger to this country and it would have long lasting and unprecedented consequences.
Also, it is not rocket science that cities, like NYC, and its metro area are more vulnerable to disease spread.
I agree that calling for lockdowns with only a hundred few cases would have people looking at decision makers like they had a hundred heads. Thing is, if there was any type of competent screening and testing protocol in this country, it would have been proved MUCH earlier there was community spread going on the US. That is no longer just cases coming from abroad. I am no public health official, but this should have been noted as a big deal and should have changed early decision making.
This didnt happen and a big reason is the fucked test from the CDC (still amazed this happened, an epic and historical failure) and a combo of bureaucratic malaise and overall hubris.
That ship has sailed now though. The virus is here and it is what it is.
If a person's central preoccupation here is The Economy, Broadly Speaking, you can safely assume (and perhaps be incorrect, because it's not a guarantee, but safely assume nonetheless) they speak from the privileged position of having sacrificed precious little in these two months.
This is still an abstract concept for them, not unlike a natural disaster that hits a distant part of the country, where the economic fallout, measured in 401(k) dips, is about all that will wash up on their proverbial shore.
At least by having a singular focus (stopping COVID spread at the expense of the economy), there will be SOME people who would be willing to listen.
All respect to Kyle and others who have lost loved ones, it's a pretty easy game theoretic outcome; the single mandate with some confidence in governing outcomes is Pareto optimal to the dual mandate with no confidence in governing outcomes.
I wasn't speaking about you.
at the time many were saying she over reacted
San Francisco County
infected 2,179
deaths 36
Compared in populations
Columbus Ohio.
infected 4,793
deaths : 200
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Sorry to hear that man. My condolences to you & your family.
If a person's central preoccupation here is The Economy, Broadly Speaking, you can safely assume (and perhaps be incorrect, because it's not a guarantee, but safely assume nonetheless) they speak from the privileged position of having sacrificed precious little in these two months.
This is still an abstract concept for them, not unlike a natural disaster that hits a distant part of the country, where the economic fallout, measured in 401(k) dips, is about all that will wash up on their proverbial shore.
so people who habe lost millions, lost their businesses, are having trouble keeping food on the table are selfish because they want to go back to work?
it is not one way or the other, because just opening up doesnt guarantee anything and staying closed doesnt help anything either..
There is common ground between going back to work and staying safe, calling people selfish because they lost everything and want it back is not right either..
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Sorry to hear that man. My condolences to you & your family.
If a person's central preoccupation here is The Economy, Broadly Speaking, you can safely assume (and perhaps be incorrect, because it's not a guarantee, but safely assume nonetheless) they speak from the privileged position of having sacrificed precious little in these two months.
This is still an abstract concept for them, not unlike a natural disaster that hits a distant part of the country, where the economic fallout, measured in 401(k) dips, is about all that will wash up on their proverbial shore.
There are roughly 20mm Americans newly unemployed with little to zero savings (household income <$40k) and multiples of this figure suffering other variations of severe economic stress. Yea, they've "sacrificed." These sectors also don't exist in a vacuum and economic pain quickly bleeds into health. Look into the research regarding changes in life expectancy and mortality after job loss. And thats for the working-age population.
not an argument worth having. He's experienced some true loss, seems pretty angry about it, and thinks that he's got some extra credibility on account of it. and he's determined to remind everyone of it over and over and over again.
Those have that have lost their livelihoods without recourse to provide for families have sacrificed. This proverbial storm has hit their house. While they live on, they survive wounded and damaged. They need our help. That's precisely the purpose of government and collective action in civil society.
The others? Those that remain healthy, with healthy families, who remain gainfully employed in non-essential positions, whose families remain gainfully employed or otherwise financially secure?
Let's say I'm dubious that their concerns on The Economy, Broadly Speaking, extend beyond concerns about their various intermediate term and retirement portfolios.
Compared to April 4 numbers (seems to be the "high point" of UI claims), claims this past week (May 16), as a fraction of the high point (by state) are:
Alabama: 23.0%
Alaska: 55.6%
Arizona: 24.4%
Arkansas: 17.2%
California: 26.8%
Colorado: 38.8%
Connecticut: 77.7%
Delaware: 28.8%
DC: 33.1%
Florida: 131.8% (there system is shitty)
Georgia: 45.3%
Louisiana: 28.7%
Maryland: 31.3%
Massholes: 27.4%
Michigan: 14.0%
NJ: 19.2%
NY: 65.8%
Texas: 42.6%
Virginia: 31.1%
Washington: 84.8%
Wisconsin: 29.9%
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is only the priveleged?
Those have that have lost their livelihoods without recourse to provide for families have sacrificed. This proverbial storm has hit their house. While they live on, they survive wounded and damaged. They need our help. That's precisely the purpose of government and collective action in civil society.
The others? Those that remain healthy, with healthy families, who remain gainfully employed in non-essential positions, whose families remain gainfully employed or otherwise financially secure?
Let's say I'm dubious that their concerns on The Economy, Broadly Speaking, extend beyond concerns about their various intermediate term and retirement portfolios.
look man i am sorry for your loss, but you saying someone who lost their retirement plan that they worked years and years for is just privelege is just not right..
again i am sorry for your loss, but your view is skewed in anger
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In comment 14908001 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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Sorry to hear that man. My condolences to you & your family.
If a person's central preoccupation here is The Economy, Broadly Speaking, you can safely assume (and perhaps be incorrect, because it's not a guarantee, but safely assume nonetheless) they speak from the privileged position of having sacrificed precious little in these two months.
This is still an abstract concept for them, not unlike a natural disaster that hits a distant part of the country, where the economic fallout, measured in 401(k) dips, is about all that will wash up on their proverbial shore.
There are roughly 20mm Americans newly unemployed with little to zero savings (household income <$40k) and multiples of this figure suffering other variations of severe economic stress. Yea, they've "sacrificed." These sectors also don't exist in a vacuum and economic pain quickly bleeds into health. Look into the research regarding changes in life expectancy and mortality after job loss. And thats for the working-age population.
There is a ton of evidence that mortality is procyclical.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6028024/
There's actually no hard and fast rule.
This recession, however, may be different. It doesn't refute the procyclical nature of mortality, but the transmissability of the virus, which reduces the likelihood that people go get checked out at hospitals.
It must be pointed out that economic harms COULD lead to intergenerational inequities, in terms of education, health, wellness, happiness, etc. It's not a dichotomous choice. Losing a livelihood, though damaged, could cause some hardships on children that may never be alleviated.
This recession, however, may be different. It doesn't refute the procyclical nature of mortality, but the transmissability of the virus, which reduces the likelihood that people go get checked out at hospitals.
and I guess what remains to be seen is the impact of quarantine on immune systems' responses to the other "everyday" stuff that we'd normally be encountering.
Seems that this concept has been over-sensationalized a little bit in some of the now infamous "coronavirus as a hoax" videos that were floating around social media, but at some level I imagine there is an impact.
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is only the priveleged?
Those have that have lost their livelihoods without recourse to provide for families have sacrificed. This proverbial storm has hit their house. While they live on, they survive wounded and damaged. They need our help. That's precisely the purpose of government and collective action in civil society.
The others? Those that remain healthy, with healthy families, who remain gainfully employed in non-essential positions, whose families remain gainfully employed or otherwise financially secure?
Let's say I'm dubious that their concerns on The Economy, Broadly Speaking, extend beyond concerns about their various intermediate term and retirement portfolios.
Sorry, but this is just really obtuse. Those families that are luckily still "gainfully employed" - are naturally incented to shut down as long as possible, not get back to work. Why go into an office if you dont have to, you're already "gainfully employed"?
Nobody is worried about 401ks that they cant touch for 20-30 years anyway... and by the way, the stock market somehow isnt even down that much.
I do think if you held public workers to the same standards as we hold private sector employees - for example, if schools do end up closing down for another 6-12 months, that teachers and administrators are furloughed just as they have been at restaurants, construction companies, airlines -- there'd be a lot more reasonable dialogue right now about getting back to work.
At the end of the day, most people argue and believe with their own self-interest at heart.
what about 2 months of encountering whatever "normal" stuff I was unknowingly beating riding on the bus with 50 other people for an hour 2x per day? or at the office, etc?
I'm in no rush to open back up. That's not my point. I think it's just another 'thing' that may have an impact if and when.
I don't get to visit the bar much more than once in 2 months anyway with 3 little ones at home :)
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can't handle 2 months of not going to a bar, we're probably fucked as a species.
what about 2 months of encountering whatever "normal" stuff I was unknowingly beating riding on the bus with 50 other people for an hour 2x per day? or at the office, etc?
I'm in no rush to open back up. That's not my point. I think it's just another 'thing' that may have an impact if and when.
I don't get to visit the bar much more than once in 2 months anyway with 3 little ones at home :)
I was mainly being facetious (I also have little ones at home), but our immune system shouldn't lose that much "protection" if we aren't constantly exposing ourselves to substances.
In fact, you could use the argument that the daily exposure we see is because people are fucking disgusting, and if we practiced a modicum of preventive medicine like washing hands on a daily basis, a lot of these "touch points" could be reduced.
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In comment 14908084 kicker said:
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can't handle 2 months of not going to a bar, we're probably fucked as a species.
what about 2 months of encountering whatever "normal" stuff I was unknowingly beating riding on the bus with 50 other people for an hour 2x per day? or at the office, etc?
I'm in no rush to open back up. That's not my point. I think it's just another 'thing' that may have an impact if and when.
I don't get to visit the bar much more than once in 2 months anyway with 3 little ones at home :)
I was mainly being facetious (I also have little ones at home), but our immune system shouldn't lose that much "protection" if we aren't constantly exposing ourselves to substances.
In fact, you could use the argument that the daily exposure we see is because people are fucking disgusting, and if we practiced a modicum of preventive medicine like washing hands on a daily basis, a lot of these "touch points" could be reduced.
I hope you are right. I have zero education on this stuff. Just one of the things that's occurred to me thinking about what happens once my littles are back to swapping general dirtiness with other kids at school and I'm enduring NJ Transit through the lincoln tunnel.
that is why my kids are outside every single day it is nice playing in the dirt, kids need to be outside playing and running around
The lowest? Utah (10.0%).
There is no correlation between job losses and COVID cases.
i walk in the door and i am used to them running right to me, now both my girls are apprehensive, i hate that
It must be pointed out that economic harms COULD lead to intergenerational inequities, in terms of education, health, wellness, happiness, etc. It's not a dichotomous choice. Losing a livelihood, though damaged, could cause some hardships on children that may never be alleviated.
The problem is, kids lick fucking everything. So not sure not being able to lick the floor of an airplane (long story) really impacts ability to fight off infections later in life.
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argument as to which is worse.
It must be pointed out that economic harms COULD lead to intergenerational inequities, in terms of education, health, wellness, happiness, etc. It's not a dichotomous choice. Losing a livelihood, though damaged, could cause some hardships on children that may never be alleviated.
Fascinating downstream effects
This is going to have decades-long repercussions.
And even though the illness is "mild", attacking the lungs, heart, and kidneys could lead to long-term effects of the illness that may not present for decades either.
That's what gives me pause too; how damaging is this to our long-term health. Could be zero. Could be more than 0.
Regardless we continue for some damn reason to espouse a regional and metro area blanket response to a disease that predominantly kills those age 65+ (80%+ per the CDC)
A better, albeit way too simplistic response, would have been to put every 65+ year old in a Ritz Carlton suite for a year and pay full salaries of those still working with diabetes to sit home for a year.... than the stupid, blanket shutdowns we've made every 25-45 year old go through.
One other point on Sweden - I dont understand why giving them some credit for their handling of this means we should adopt their tax and health care structures too? If Warren Buffett is really great at managing money and you go to him for investment advice... does that mean you want to emulate his political beliefs and live in Omaha too?
- What is ridership like on NJT right now? Is there a reason why an agency bleeding capital in the best of times is still operating (I believe weekend schedules) while demand must be incredibly low? I don't know how many front-line or essential workers are being transported but I'd be shocked if any cost benefit or efficiency measures were directing NJT policy right now.
Meanwhile policymakers always lament the disruption that much-needed repairs to the tunnel and NYP would cause...wouldn't this be an opportune time? I can already envision settling back into my normal commute until next summer NJT diverts trains to Hoboken for tunnel repairs.
Our hospitals have not been overwhelmed by this virus. Neither have theirs. And if anything their high taxation system would argue for a longer shutdown than countries which dont bring in so much revenue could afford.
Regardless we continue for some damn reason to espouse a regional and metro area blanket response to a disease that predominantly kills those age 65+ (80%+ per the CDC)
A better, albeit way too simplistic response, would have been to put every 65+ year old in a Ritz Carlton suite for a year and pay full salaries of those still working with diabetes to sit home for a year.... than the stupid, blanket shutdowns we've made every 25-45 year old go through.
One other point on Sweden - I dont understand why giving them some credit for their handling of this means we should adopt their tax and health care structures too? If Warren Buffett is really great at managing money and you go to him for investment advice... does that mean you want to emulate his political beliefs and live in Omaha too?
The "health" and "tax" discussion correctly suggests that there are socioeconomic, demographic, and cultural factors that play a role in how well people will conform to government initiatives that are non-binding on the individual.
It's moral suasion, and it has never really worked in America.
Viewing taxes as a revenue generating scheme, rather than a behavioral function, misses the larger points.
Meanwhile zero data and analytics showing how this is the right course of action... if grandparents or those at high risk live with any of these kids... if some of the teachers are deemed high risk... by all means pay to protect those people next year, but otherwise what are we doing? The kids lose, the taxpayers lose... for what?
The problem is, kids lick fucking everything. So not sure not being able to lick the floor of an airplane (long story) really impacts ability to fight off infections later in life.
My five year old INSISTED on eating an ice pop while riding his battery powered ATV yesterday. 5 minutes later, sure enough, he's licking the fucking handlebar to lap up the delicious ice pop juice that was nearly squandered. He was incredulous at the suggestion that he not repeat it.
all you can do is laugh sometimes.
- What is ridership like on NJT right now? Is there a reason why an agency bleeding capital in the best of times is still operating (I believe weekend schedules) while demand must be incredibly low? I don't know how many front-line or essential workers are being transported but I'd be shocked if any cost benefit or efficiency measures were directing NJT policy right now.
Meanwhile policymakers always lament the disruption that much-needed repairs to the tunnel and NYP would cause...wouldn't this be an opportune time? I can already envision settling back into my normal commute until next summer NJT diverts trains to Hoboken for tunnel repairs.
Labor market polarization. The whole "endogenous technological change" with respect to the labor market never factored in a shock like COVID and its impacts on tele-commuting.
At this point, there's conflicting literature on how this could impact the labor market. There could be some hidden benefits (cutting out inefficiencies in the work from shirking while ON the job), hidden costs (recessions tend to create a mass point of workers who don't retire on time 30 years down the line, which impacts youth hiring), and unknowns (most wage growth is sifting between jobs when young; however, this is due to existing inefficiencies in the labor market when applying for jobs).
Regardless we continue for some damn reason to espouse a regional and metro area blanket response to a disease that predominantly kills those age 65+ (80%+ per the CDC)
A better, albeit way too simplistic response, would have been to put every 65+ year old in a Ritz Carlton suite for a year and pay full salaries of those still working with diabetes to sit home for a year.... than the stupid, blanket shutdowns we've made every 25-45 year old go through.
With the benefit of hindsight its hard to imagine a different/tailored approach would not have been advised. Ironically, the federalist structure of the US could've both helped but also hindered an optimal response.
Unfortunately, I think the fumbles at the beginning exacerbated the problem, ceded any high ground for any position other than minimizing the health threat, and then a blanket overreaction took hold.
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to probably enough of the biome.
The problem is, kids lick fucking everything. So not sure not being able to lick the floor of an airplane (long story) really impacts ability to fight off infections later in life.
My five year old INSISTED on eating an ice pop while riding his battery powered ATV yesterday. 5 minutes later, sure enough, he's licking the fucking handlebar to lap up the delicious ice pop juice that was nearly squandered. He was incredulous at the suggestion that he not repeat it.
all you can do is laugh sometimes.
We were on a flight back from an academic conference in Hawaii. Wife and kid with me.
Kid had been in a bad fucking mood (I think around 3) getting through the airport. Knew it was going to be a long fucking ride.
Halfway through the flight, after bitching non-stop, she sees a chip crumb on the ground, and proceeds to lick it up. Wife and I look at each other, say she's not yelling (wife is a healthcare provider), won't kill her, and let her just lay on the floor.
People without kids staring at us.
Meanwhile zero data and analytics showing how this is the right course of action... if grandparents or those at high risk live with any of these kids... if some of the teachers are deemed high risk... by all means pay to protect those people next year, but otherwise what are we doing? The kids lose, the taxpayers lose... for what?
my in laws have already said f it, they are high risk but father in law said he could die tomorrow of a heart attack he is not wasting anymore time not seeing his grandkids
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In comment 14908105 kicker said:
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to probably enough of the biome.
The problem is, kids lick fucking everything. So not sure not being able to lick the floor of an airplane (long story) really impacts ability to fight off infections later in life.
My five year old INSISTED on eating an ice pop while riding his battery powered ATV yesterday. 5 minutes later, sure enough, he's licking the fucking handlebar to lap up the delicious ice pop juice that was nearly squandered. He was incredulous at the suggestion that he not repeat it.
all you can do is laugh sometimes.
We were on a flight back from an academic conference in Hawaii. Wife and kid with me.
Kid had been in a bad fucking mood (I think around 3) getting through the airport. Knew it was going to be a long fucking ride.
Halfway through the flight, after bitching non-stop, she sees a chip crumb on the ground, and proceeds to lick it up. Wife and I look at each other, say she's not yelling (wife is a healthcare provider), won't kill her, and let her just lay on the floor.
People without kids staring at us.
we were going to jupiter, my kids first flight, when we got on the plane my wife told the people around us she would buy them a drink when we got there..
my 2 year old proceeded to pew all over my aunt during the flight..
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how can their health care system not be included as a reason that they could do what they did? And how do they pay for that health care system?
Our hospitals have not been overwhelmed by this virus. Neither have theirs. And if anything their high taxation system would argue for a longer shutdown than countries which dont bring in so much revenue could afford.
Our hospitals in NYC were overwhelmed.
They weren’t overwhelmed elsewhere. Maybe because of the shutdown?
Meanwhile zero data and analytics showing how this is the right course of action... if grandparents or those at high risk live with any of these kids... if some of the teachers are deemed high risk... by all means pay to protect those people next year, but otherwise what are we doing? The kids lose, the taxpayers lose... for what?
You raise two points that make sense That is public sector workers like teachers were furloughed, many attitudes and discussions would be different about opening up. This is not lost on me and I work in education and feel VERY fortunate to still be getting paid. It is much easier to stay home when you are getting a check.
Also, the very negative impact of closing schools next year. This is a serious decision and there does not seem to be a lot of science there behind it. Remote is a pale imitation of real school. There will be many negative impacts for young people.
This is not even getting into the major role of childcare the school system has. Like it or not, it does. How does the city and state go back to work in a major way without the schools?
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In comment 14908117 ron mexico said:
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how can their health care system not be included as a reason that they could do what they did? And how do they pay for that health care system?
Our hospitals have not been overwhelmed by this virus. Neither have theirs. And if anything their high taxation system would argue for a longer shutdown than countries which dont bring in so much revenue could afford.
Our hospitals in NYC were overwhelmed.
They weren’t overwhelmed elsewhere. Maybe because of the shutdown?
I think he meant over capacity, the workers were veey very busy, i think overwhelmed was the wrong word..
Nobody went in and couldnt get a hospital bed
Meanwhile zero data and analytics showing how this is the right course of action... if grandparents or those at high risk live with any of these kids... if some of the teachers are deemed high risk... by all means pay to protect those people next year, but otherwise what are we doing? The kids lose, the taxpayers lose... for what?
I'm trying to use this as an opportunity to advance the relative development of my kids academically and athletically. I can spend hours educating the kids and playing lacrosse in the backyard or whatever but therein lays another unfortunate circumstance of this shutdown...while I can afford to spend time and money to help my kids, so many others cannot and it just promotes more inequality.
This idea that those of us highlighting the dire economic consequences are "privileged" without loss is just ludicrous because a greater proportion of the consequences are actually being borne by those least able to shoulder them.
Most of us are definitely social creatures; but being social doesn't mean you can't wear a damn mask or not go to a packed bar. While online interaction will rarely if ever substitute for in-person interaction for vast majority of us, people are adapting. People can adapt for short term to this social distancing measures. What is making it harder is that many don't actually believe in the usefulness or the effectiveness of social distancing.
When you have a bunch of people flocking to a bar the moment the stay-at-home restrictions are lifted (Wisconsin) or congregating in large crowds to protest these stay-at-home restrictions or pastors declaring that it's an act of anti-religion to force people to worship through means outside of a physical church, you aren't talking about people's need to be social creature as much as sizeable number of people not believing in what they're reading and seeing even if there are ample scientific proofs. In the end, moral suasion isn't a strength for a sizeable portion of the nation.
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i am incredibly frustrated and concerned for my 3 kids educational, and social (even athletic), development. Already talk in Westchester of continued shutdown of schools through next year. They're online right now maybe two hours a day.
Meanwhile zero data and analytics showing how this is the right course of action... if grandparents or those at high risk live with any of these kids... if some of the teachers are deemed high risk... by all means pay to protect those people next year, but otherwise what are we doing? The kids lose, the taxpayers lose... for what?
Similar here. My kids are 5 & 2 and the entire concept of limiting screen time has gone out the window. I've also given up on quarantining the kids and sheltering them from parks. In fact, kids in our town (Summit) have torn down the caution wrap from the playgrounds and I'm not holding my kids back from playing.
I'm trying to use this as an opportunity to advance the relative development of my kids academically and athletically. I can spend hours educating the kids and playing lacrosse in the backyard or whatever but therein lays another unfortunate circumstance of this shutdown...while I can afford to spend time and money to help my kids, so many others cannot and it just promotes more inequality.
This idea that those of us highlighting the dire economic consequences are "privileged" without loss is just ludicrous because a greater proportion of the consequences are actually being borne by those least able to shoulder them.
I think many of us would openly admit to being in a position of good fortune, or privilege. The idea that being in such a position makes one's thoughts or opinions on a topic disposable is what's utter bullshit.
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i am incredibly frustrated and concerned for my 3 kids educational, and social (even athletic), development. Already talk in Westchester of continued shutdown of schools through next year. They're online right now maybe two hours a day.
Meanwhile zero data and analytics showing how this is the right course of action... if grandparents or those at high risk live with any of these kids... if some of the teachers are deemed high risk... by all means pay to protect those people next year, but otherwise what are we doing? The kids lose, the taxpayers lose... for what?
Similar here. My kids are 5 & 2 and the entire concept of limiting screen time has gone out the window. I've also given up on quarantining the kids and sheltering them from parks. In fact, kids in our town (Summit) have torn down the caution wrap from the playgrounds and I'm not holding my kids back from playing.
I'm trying to use this as an opportunity to advance the relative development of my kids academically and athletically. I can spend hours educating the kids and playing lacrosse in the backyard or whatever but therein lays another unfortunate circumstance of this shutdown...while I can afford to spend time and money to help my kids, so many others cannot and it just promotes more inequality.
This idea that those of us highlighting the dire economic consequences are "privileged" without loss is just ludicrous because a greater proportion of the consequences are actually being borne by those least able to shoulder them.
i wish i could get my girls into lacrosse
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i am incredibly frustrated and concerned for my 3 kids educational, and social (even athletic), development. Already talk in Westchester of continued shutdown of schools through next year. They're online right now maybe two hours a day.
Meanwhile zero data and analytics showing how this is the right course of action... if grandparents or those at high risk live with any of these kids... if some of the teachers are deemed high risk... by all means pay to protect those people next year, but otherwise what are we doing? The kids lose, the taxpayers lose... for what?
You raise two points that make sense That is public sector workers like teachers were furloughed, many attitudes and discussions would be different about opening up. This is not lost on me and I work in education and feel VERY fortunate to still be getting paid. It is much easier to stay home when you are getting a check.
Also, the very negative impact of closing schools next year. This is a serious decision and there does not seem to be a lot of science there behind it. Remote is a pale imitation of real school. There will be many negative impacts for young people.
This is not even getting into the major role of childcare the school system has. Like it or not, it does. How does the city and state go back to work in a major way without the schools?
outstanding post, Rocco. Thank you for sharing and all the best to you
My apology if that came out like I was refuting your point in a jerky way. I was just piggybacking off of your point...:)
As kicker said the time interval from late Feb through the first lockdown order on March 19th is a very big window where very little was done officially. Rudy Gobert was licking microphones on March 9th and within a couple days games were cancelled, with the stock market crashing in between, setting off a lot of chain reactions without any heavy handed govt intervention.
There's a lot of eyes wide shut that other countries never had to lockdown the way we did because they acted earlier, with those positive case studies dismissed and a distortion of the Swedish model embraced. Parts of our country have even had less severe restrictions than Sweden (they have banned some high risk activities, including public gatherings with more than 50 people and closed upper schools). They have consistently implored people to follow social distancing guidelines and they have been quick to shut down those that haven't. They aren't protesting. We have been more severe than Sweden in some places and less severe than they have in other places, neither has been a panacea.
The phased re-openings are necessary movement towards a more consistent posture, however we should still be cautious because there are challenges here that may make any of the models deployed by other countries more difficult and the outcomes worse. We don't have the testing/tracing down as good as South Korea or Germany. And we are a much larger country, with a lot more high risk people, than Sweden. Their lead epidemiologist has said protecting their most vulnerable has been harder than they expected so that is presumably going to be a tough task here, especially with testing still a challenge. Our biggest challenge will be generating anywhere near the level of adherence to whatever rules stay in place - and magical thinking that misunderstands the Swedish model in the first place is case in point.
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I didn't say I haven't seen the "alt rights" rise but if I see nazi's I immediately don't have to wonder if they are racist, but just because a protest draws racist groups doesn't mean that all of the groups that may be protesting are racist or have a racist agenda. I also think in many of these situations the media likes to focus on the racist groups or even help perpetuate the idea that a group is racist because it sells or fits a narrative.
If a group, like the 3% ers, states their mission, denounces racism, says they are open to all like minded people, and tries to distance themselves from racial controversy like the statements made about Charlottesville yet are still labeled as racist it seems wrong to me. Racism continues to be a large problem but to unfairly assign that label to people is almost as bad.
And that is also why I specifically said that generalization of groups is often unfair. However, every organization has its own branding, and if your brand is being coopted by a group you don't want to represent your brand, then either you go hard against those people and their ideologies or you look at your mission to see why such people keep joining your ranks. Tepid denouncements while still allowing those people to be part of and represent your organizations isn't going to help your organization be seen as anything but what the public perception is.
As far as the Three Percenters go, it's a mixed bag organization. While the organization itself may declare that it's not a white nationalist group and may even denounce such ideology in its charter, if number of its members are actually white nationalists and more flock to it, then it's not doing a good job of ensuring that its brand is protected. So while such militias may say that it's against white nationalism and racism, many of them do so tepidly and in words only. They often are breeding grounds for white nationalism based on the actions of its members.
You make some great points here, thanks. I guess groups like this just cannot work on a national level without some strict top down controls.
Thus my usage of the word 'abstract': dissociated from the most severe harms (loss of life, loss of livelihood), distant, detached.
It is easy to focus lesser harms, lesser problems, and subsequently focus on risky solutions when you are several layers insulated from the most severe.
Perhaps I would focus more on the damage to livelihoods, given what we have firsthand experience with in helping financially support close family through this crisis, were it not for personally experiencing loss of life, family surviving COVID-19, family and friends infected terrified either for themselves or the safety around them, family and friends serving as frontline health care workers, etc.
All this leads me to find the drumbeat towards big reopenings and getting to normalcy soon to be a cavalier discussion, at best. And I have merely suffered glancing blows that won't leave any lasting mark, compared to some close.
So if I come across as angry, understand that the anger is because of people that bristle at their small part in our collective shared sacrifice to limit loss moving forward, or people that marshal the economic hardship of others for moral support of reopening positions that I believe have unnecessary health risks for society when those people have no personal connection to these others.
The anger is not about what's been lost, because what's lost is lost, as hard as that is to write.
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how can their health care system not be included as a reason that they could do what they did? And how do they pay for that health care system?
Our hospitals have not been overwhelmed by this virus. Neither have theirs. And if anything their high taxation system would argue for a longer shutdown than countries which dont bring in so much revenue could afford.
I was hoping that your lack of understanding about the secondary ticket market might have been an isolated instance of being uninformed. I'm not quite so sure anymore.
Were you unaware of refrigerated trailers serving as makeshift morgues?
@K_G_Andersen
A lot of government reports from European countries on seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 this week and they all show the same - it's low.
Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~5%
Denmark ~1%
Norway < 1%
Let's end the discussion about miracles and natural herd immunity? The data is in.
Like every other study out there I'm sure all the usual caveats about data to this point apply, but with the best data we have the general expert consensus for herd immunity (50%-80% of population) and the general country wide infection rates are estimated to be well under 10%. So it's relatively simple to make our own common sense "models" at this point.
Multiply country by country results to this point 10-20x and that's a very simplistic estimate of what would happen unmitigated even if healthcare capacity is maintained as it is now.
NYC has obviously been hardest hit and those anti-body results were 20%, so multiply that outcome by 2-4x and that's the range of outcomes social distancing prevented (or worse if capacity had gotten overwhelmed).
This is just a shit situation that everyone is going to have to deal with for a while, with non-ideal options, even Sweden.
https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1263246859054641152?s=20 - ( New Window )
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I think many of us would openly admit to being in a position of good fortune, or privilege. The idea that being in such a position makes one's thoughts or opinions on a topic disposable is what's utter bullshit.
Thus my usage of the word 'abstract': dissociated from the most severe harms (loss of life, loss of livelihood), distant, detached.
It is easy to focus lesser harms, lesser problems, and subsequently focus on risky solutions when you are several layers insulated from the most severe.
Perhaps I would focus more on the damage to livelihoods, given what we have firsthand experience with in helping financially support close family through this crisis, were it not for personally experiencing loss of life, family surviving COVID-19, family and friends infected terrified either for themselves or the safety around them, family and friends serving as frontline health care workers, etc.
All this leads me to find the drumbeat towards big reopenings and getting to normalcy soon to be a cavalier discussion, at best. And I have merely suffered glancing blows that won't leave any lasting mark, compared to some close.
So if I come across as angry, understand that the anger is because of people that bristle at their small part in our collective shared sacrifice to limit loss moving forward, or people that marshal the economic hardship of others for moral support of reopening positions that I believe have unnecessary health risks for society when those people have no personal connection to these others.
The anger is not about what's been lost, because what's lost is lost, as hard as that is to write.
I certainly see that side of it. In my particular case, I can assure you that any allusion I make towards re-openings and the economy have virtually nothing to do with me and my circumstances.
I am among the very luckiest right now. My job transitioned to 100% at home with little more than a few speedbumps and an uncomfortable chair, never a concern of being laid off or asked to take a paycut, and my firm/group is doing really well. I could do this for another year or more without ever truly being put out. I am 100% aware of what a fortunate position that is.
To boot, my kids are only kindergarten and pre-school age. Sure, they are driving us nuts, and homeschooling is a battle. But they aren't truly "missing out" as much as older students are.
I don't think re-opening is important so that I can go enjoy myself at a restaurant or just cease being inconvenienced by a lack of normality. Those would be fifth and sixth order side effects.
The effects that this is having on otherwise healthy working class families will be long-lasting. Ignoring the real impacts that 'just another month' of lockdown will have on people belies a privilege of its own sort. As much as it's been overused (and was used WAY too early in this process), the cure can ultimately be worse than the disease. Far be it from me to know when that point is, but it isn't heresy to keep it in mind.
It's certainly a delicate dance, and I'm not advocating throwing caution to the wind and flipping everything back on. I don't think I've conveyed that attitude in any sense. That suggestion terrifies me. My dad suffers from degenerative lung disease and is bursting at the seams to be able to see/hug/squeeze his 10 grandchildren. He's nothing short of fucked if COVID slips into our circle. We've been taking the ordeal very, very seriously.
Again, I'm very sorry for the loss that you've experienced.
And anyone who says they do not care about working or money either has way to much money or is lieing to you.
I hate the word non essential, every business is essential to someone.
variation between states. For all states, even for the worst affected states, we estimate that less than a quarter of the
population has been infected; in New York, for example, we estimate that 16.6% [12.8%-21.6%] of individuals have been
infected to date. Our attack rates for New York are in line with those from recent serological studies [1] broadly supporting
our modelling choices.
There is variation in the initial reproduction number, which is likely due to a range of factors; we find a strong association
between the initial reproduction number with both population density (measured at the state level) and the chronological
date when 10 cumulative deaths occurred (a crude estimate of the date of locally sustained transmission).
Our estimates suggest that the epidemic is not under control in much of the US: as of 17 May 2020, the reproduction
number is above the critical threshold (1.0) in 24 [95% CI: 20-30] states. Higher reproduction numbers are geographically
clustered in the South and Midwest, where epidemics are still developing, while we estimate lower reproduction numbers
in states that have already suffered high COVID-19 mortality (such as the Northeast). These estimates suggest that caution
must be taken in loosening current restrictions if effective additional measures are not put in place.
by greater than two-fold, if the relationship between mobility and transmission remains unchanged. Our results suggest
that factors modulating transmission such as rapid testing, contact tracing and behavioural precautions are crucial to
offset the rise of transmission associated with loosening of social distancing.
Overall, we show that while all US states have substantially reduced their reproduction numbers, we find no evidence
that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over
Report 23: State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States - ( New Window )
"That threat is not going away any time soon," Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, told a small group of reporters. "Nobody has a crystal ball."
"That threat is not going away any time soon," Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, told a small group of reporters. "Nobody has a crystal ball."
Are you able to add to a discussion without acting like a child?
1. Full in school learning under CDC guidelines (which sounds like prison if you haven't read them).
2. Hybrid in person/at home learning. Likely 2 days at school, 3 days at home to stagger headcount in the facilities.
3. Full at home learning.
I'm 100% on board with option 2, it seems like the best choice right now and allows a slow ramp up that they can eventually make to 3 days, and then 4, and then all 5 if they want to.
Option 3 isn't ideal but i'd still rather have it over option 1.
1. Full in school learning under CDC guidelines (which sounds like prison if you haven't read them).
2. Hybrid in person/at home learning. Likely 2 days at school, 3 days at home to stagger headcount in the facilities.
3. Full at home learning.
I'm 100% on board with option 2, it seems like the best choice right now and allows a slow ramp up that they can eventually make to 3 days, and then 4, and then all 5 if they want to.
Option 3 isn't ideal but i'd still rather have it over option 1.
My wife talked to some of my daughters friends they are not sending them to school under those guidelines, my daughter is 5, you ever try to tell a bunch of 5 year olds do not touch each other?
Also none of them want to do online learning for a 5 year old
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that they are weighing 3 options for school this fall.
1. Full in school learning under CDC guidelines (which sounds like prison if you haven't read them).
2. Hybrid in person/at home learning. Likely 2 days at school, 3 days at home to stagger headcount in the facilities.
3. Full at home learning.
I'm 100% on board with option 2, it seems like the best choice right now and allows a slow ramp up that they can eventually make to 3 days, and then 4, and then all 5 if they want to.
Option 3 isn't ideal but i'd still rather have it over option 1.
My wife talked to some of my daughters friends they are not sending them to school under those guidelines, my daughter is 5, you ever try to tell a bunch of 5 year olds do not touch each other?
Also none of them want to do online learning for a 5 year old
that should be friends parents
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Two of the US military's most senior leaders issued a stark warning Thursday that the threat from the coronavirus is still high and stressed they are preparing for a possible second wave.
"That threat is not going away any time soon," Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, told a small group of reporters. "Nobody has a crystal ball."
Are you able to add to a discussion without acting like a child?
Goodluck enforcing all kids over 2 to wear masks, not share, not touch, site 6 ft+, distance on school buses, have sneeze guards in class, etc.
And forgetting the kids for a second, how are teachers supposed to enforce this and not lose their shit? If the CDC thinks that its going to be so bad this fall that these measures need to be taken, then just cancel it all together.
My kid will be going into Kindergarten and while the parent in me is frustrated because its such a massive transitional year for her, I'm also thinking positively and will just take it on the chin if she's home this fall. My wife and I will have to buckle up and pick up a lot of the slack, it is what it is.
CDC School Guidelines - ( New Window )
The problem is that way too many people are fools.
The biggest problem with this pandemic transmission, overall, is people.
I didn't read through the whole article you linked, but the summary you pasted seemed to indicate a lot of analysis done by state. If NY is representative, the incidence varies dramatically based on community size, and there's a wide variety of community type/size. Proper (IMO) analysis would show the pandemic being worse than advertised in areas, and better in others.
1. Full in school learning under CDC guidelines (which sounds like prison if you haven't read them).
2. Hybrid in person/at home learning. Likely 2 days at school, 3 days at home to stagger headcount in the facilities.
3. Full at home learning.
I'm 100% on board with option 2, it seems like the best choice right now and allows a slow ramp up that they can eventually make to 3 days, and then 4, and then all 5 if they want to.
Option 3 isn't ideal but i'd still rather have it over option 1.
I totally agree. They Hybrid method allows for students to still get actual instructions from the teachers (as much as I want to say that online learning has been ok, it really hasn't been, especially for my 3rd grader) after or before getting the online portion.
When I talked to my daughter about such a scenario, she was ok as long as she gets to see some of her friends, as she knows that the likelihood of her having the same schedule as all of her good friends is pretty miniscule.
I also think that the Hybrid method may be good for my soon-to-be kindergartener son, who may benefit from little breaks between going to school all day.
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Two of the US military's most senior leaders issued a stark warning Thursday that the threat from the coronavirus is still high and stressed they are preparing for a possible second wave.
"That threat is not going away any time soon," Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, told a small group of reporters. "Nobody has a crystal ball."
Are you able to add to a discussion without acting like a child?
Nope. And if you notice, the petulant children on this thread all seem to be on the same side. Telling.
Goodluck enforcing all kids over 2 to wear masks, not share, not touch, site 6 ft+, distance on school buses, have sneeze guards in class, etc.
And forgetting the kids for a second, how are teachers supposed to enforce this and not lose their shit? If the CDC thinks that its going to be so bad this fall that these measures need to be taken, then just cancel it all together.
My kid will be going into Kindergarten and while the parent in me is frustrated because its such a massive transitional year for her, I'm also thinking positively and will just take it on the chin if she's home this fall. My wife and I will have to buckle up and pick up a lot of the slack, it is what it is. CDC School Guidelines - ( New Window )
thank you for posting - reading through the guidelines I'd actually hope they can figure something out in a middle option like you said that can work.
If you've ever seen the docs on the Norwegian (?) outdoor schools where they are hiking in nature all the time, it would seem like whenever possible with the weather, some kind of outdoor led classes would be ideal. Science classes seem relative well suited to that, along with maybe a little extra phys ed. That would actually be a nice positive to come out of this whole thing, if by virtue of necessity it got kids back into more phys ed (esp since there are so few other activities to do right now). Though then that opens up the shared objects can of worms depending on what they are playing.
Getting the kids to not touch and stay 6 feet apart indoors is definitely the challenge, so those are the situations they need to figure out how to minimize in some way (less time, smaller amounts of students at once, etc). We are lucky we still have 1 more year of preschool, the class size is already low, and in CA half of their days are already outside. But even in that environment when 1 kid picks something up they all get it within a few days.
Her learning isn't going to be as good in this system but its temporary and I think it opens up other areas of growth. If young kids can get through this they will be able to handle fully re-opened school no question.
She said its a ton of web-surfing and projects that should be done in a day are given for the full week. Like this week was locating bugs and drawing/writing about their habitats. That's it, the entire week.
Not a big deal since everyone is just trying to get to the finish line right now and summer break, but that can't be how it is this fall. I'm fine doing a lot of the legwork but teachers need to send very detailed lessonplans to parents. That's my biggest fear with at-home learning right now (on top of trying to teach my kid how to read/write while working all day).
Her learning isn't going to be as good in this system but its temporary and I think it opens up other areas of growth. If young kids can get through this they will be able to handle fully re-opened school no question.
Yes, it's Ronnie, and thank you.
For me, teaching a 5 year old at home is a bit easier so the learning portion isn't a big deal. It's him continuing to learn social norms and how to behave in school settings. He's a wonderful child but just totally rambunctious.
My bigger concern is my 2.5 year old's schooling. Not so much because of actual concern regarding what she'll learn or anything, but whether they'll actually have it since it's like a half day daycare where they start their interactions with other children. And the fact that she has an underlying genetic condition that may or may not impact her ability to learn and behave in class, this is going to be an interesting fall.
She said its a ton of web-surfing and projects that should be done in a day are given for the full week. Like this week was locating bugs and drawing/writing about their habitats. That's it, the entire week.
Not a big deal since everyone is just trying to get to the finish line right now and summer break, but that can't be how it is this fall. I'm fine doing a lot of the legwork but teachers need to send very detailed lessonplans to parents. That's my biggest fear with at-home learning right now (on top of trying to teach my kid how to read/write while working all day).
And that's what I've been preaching all along.
Look, we're spending significant time at home next year. It's inevitable.
We should be calling this year a wash, closing it out where we left. And in the meantime, teachers should be training to be able to teach relevant, meaningful content online efficiently. We're wasting valuable time doing things that don't matter.
A bunch of teachers I know and work with are taking it upon themselves to get ready.
She said its a ton of web-surfing and projects that should be done in a day are given for the full week. Like this week was locating bugs and drawing/writing about their habitats. That's it, the entire week.
Not a big deal since everyone is just trying to get to the finish line right now and summer break, but that can't be how it is this fall. I'm fine doing a lot of the legwork but teachers need to send very detailed lessonplans to parents. That's my biggest fear with at-home learning right now (on top of trying to teach my kid how to read/write while working all day).
We have had similar but not exactly the same experience with our 8 year old. She gets plenty of work assigned to her, but they're assignments that she can complete in like an hour if she was in class. However, because she has to type out the answers as well as use powerpoint-like programs to show her math work using blocks and lines, etc. which requires copying/cutting/pasting, it takes her a long time and she eventually gets frustrated since her computer skills when it comes to typing and making products is still not really there. Often I'm either showing her how to do them and she copies or I just straight up let her draw it on a piece of paper or write on a piece of paper, and I do the computer work for her (or my wife). It's a damn mess sometimes.
She said its a ton of web-surfing and projects that should be done in a day are given for the full week. Like this week was locating bugs and drawing/writing about their habitats. That's it, the entire week.
Not a big deal since everyone is just trying to get to the finish line right now and summer break, but that can't be how it is this fall. I'm fine doing a lot of the legwork but teachers need to send very detailed lessonplans to parents. That's my biggest fear with at-home learning right now (on top of trying to teach my kid how to read/write while working all day).
From what I've seen, the assignments vary greatly from school-to-school. My daughter's in 1st grade and we get relatively detailed lesson plans each morning, though additional online class meetings for socialization and instruction would be nice since they're only doing 2 half hour sessions/week. Here's our typical daily plan, which includes "recommended" time slots (30 min for each topic), but we often do things in our own order:
Reading: at least 15 min of reading; occasionally they assign a specific book on Epic, but most often it's anything you want from Epic/Raz-Kids or a book you own. Last week she had general guidance of "nonfiction" book, that she then had to write a "report" (2 sentences/day) on.
Writing: usually assigns a topic and students write 5+ sentences with a picture
Specialty 1: PhysEd, Music, Health, Computers, Art, Spanish, etc
Specialty 2: same as above
Science or Social Studies: As an engineer myself, their "science" is a joke and I have to keep reminding myself it's only 1st grade. Usually a 10-15 min online video to watch. SS is a little better with a online video and maybe a project. This week they focused on Needs vs Wants and kids needed to make a poster comparing the two.
Math: Usually a 10-15 min assignment + encouragement to practice "math facts" (simple addition/subtraction equations). They did provide some good online resources here though and I'll usually supplement with an additional assignment.
Spelling/Grammar: could be a spelling assignment, phonetics, adjectives, nouns, etc. Some good online stuff here too.
Last few weeks they've also encouraged a weeklong "enrichment" project with suggestions and/or ability to create your own. One week was building a cup out of just paper and tape that could hold water for 10+ secs, another was using plastic straws and plastic wrap to create a boat and seeing how many pennies it could hold. I had my daughter do the "egg drop" one week.
One thing they haven't done a good job of is providing feedback/encouragement. A lot of the assignments we submit through an app (usually just a quick photo of it), but we don't really get more than an acknowledgement from the teacher.
96032 patients (mean age 53·8 years, 46·3% women) with COVID-19 were hospitalised during the study
period and met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 14 888 patients were in the treatment groups (1868 received
chloroquine, 3783 received chloroquine with a macrolide, 3016 received hydroxychloroquine, and 6221 received
hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide) and 81 144 patients were in the control group. 10698 (11·1%) patients died in
hospital. After controlling for multiple confounding factors (age, sex, race or ethnicity, body-mass index, underlying
cardiovascular disease and its risk factors, diabetes, underlying lung disease, smoking, immunosuppressed condition,
and baseline disease severity), when compared with mortality in the control group (9·3%), hydroxychloroquine
(18·0%; hazard ratio 1·335, 95% CI 1·223–1·457), hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide (23·8%; 1·447, 1·368–1·531),
chloroquine (16·4%; 1·365, 1·218–1·531), and chloroquine with a macrolide (22·2%; 1·368, 1·273–1·469) were each
independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Compared with the control group (0·3%),
hydroxychloroquine (6·1%; 2·369, 1·935–2·900), hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide (8·1%; 5·106, 4·106–5·983),
chloroquine (4·3%; 3·561, 2·760–4·596), and chloroquine with a macrolide (6·5%; 4·011, 3·344–4·812) were
independently associated with an increased risk of de-novo ventricular arrhythmia during hospitalisation.
Interpretation
We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with
a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased
in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19.
David Maron, director of preventive cardiology at the Stanford University School of Medicine, said that “these findings provide absolutely no reason for optimism that these drugs might be useful in the prevention or treatment of covid-19.”
Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis - ( New Window )
Yup evwry day it something new that conrradicts the day before, they should just say we dont know
CDC also said the death rate was .4%. Based on that and the number of deaths thus far that would be about 25 million have been infected. Numbers of deaths can get very high depending how much of the population ultimately gets infected.
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I have no idea anymore. I just do social distancing, wear a mask, wash my hands frequently, & don't touch my face. Every other day something comes out that contradicts something we thought.
Yup evwry day it something new that conrradicts the day before, they should just say we dont know
I mean, this was said like 2 weeks in after 1 idiot on youtube was showing people how to disinfect their groceries or just leaving them in your car for 3 days.
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I have no idea anymore. I just do social distancing, wear a mask, wash my hands frequently, & don't touch my face. Every other day something comes out that contradicts something we thought.
Yup evwry day it something new that conrradicts the day before, they should just say we dont know
Yes
Science takes time I guess. Because it really seems very little is still known. I read contradictory things all the time.
I sometimes have more faith in the local weatherman getting the forecast right.
My wife was telling me this the other day and I just couldn't believe it. Not that it may or may not be true but that they still have no clue. Where is the science?
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In comment 14908771 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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I have no idea anymore. I just do social distancing, wear a mask, wash my hands frequently, & don't touch my face. Every other day something comes out that contradicts something we thought.
Yup evwry day it something new that conrradicts the day before, they should just say we dont know
I mean, this was said like 2 weeks in after 1 idiot on youtube was showing people how to disinfect their groceries or just leaving them in your car for 3 days.
my wife still disinfects our groceries, i do the shopping for her parents so she was worried..
In star trek or doctor who, this shit would be beaten already. Its like the scientists are lazy nowadays /s
The kids thing they are pushing i still dont buy, doesnt mean i am not going to be careful when it comes to my kids..
but at one point they said they had 100 kids in the hospital 55 tested positive the rest tested negative, that right there tells you it is not related
Nebraska (4.3) the lowest.
In March 2020, the average (median) unemployment rate was 4.15 (3.9). In April 2020, the average (median) unemployment rate was 13.4 (12.9).
The median unemployment rate increased by 228 percent.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm
I did see that the Connecticut casinos are reopening so are some places in Vegas too. I know a lot of people won’t be flocking to any of these places right away. But the sooner we reopen the sooner people will start to venture out. We need to learn to with this nasty China virus. We don’t have to like it but we need to get back to living. Protect the vulnerable, reinforce the healthcare system and follow good practices like masks and frequent hand washing. And of course, relentless pursuit of a vaccine.
Side note (and yes, I'm a disgusting male pig) - But Sammi Steele while a little too thick for my taste has a ridiculous set of tits.
Silver Bullet Treatment for COVID-19 - ( New Window )
CDC also said the death rate was .4%. Based on that and the number of deaths thus far that would be about 25 million have been infected. Numbers of deaths can get very high depending how much of the population ultimately gets infected.
We really need to move away from generic death rates and generic messaging and responses.
We know that 80% of deaths so far are in ages 65+ with more than half in nursing homes and assisted living...
Which policy do you think leads to more projected deaths a year from now?
Scenario A: 15% infection of entire population
Scenario B: 7.5% infection of elderly, 25% infection of ages 45-65, herd immunity, 60%, to those under 45
Answer:
Scenario A kills 280,000 Americans
Scenario B kills 240,000 Americans
You focus your efforts, your policies and orders/laws, your fiscal stimulus.... at protecting those vulnerable age groups and those with underlying conditions, and you stop worrying so damn much if 35 year olds and kids are breathing on each other.
Its a hell of a lot cheaper as a society to help every 55+ year old that needs it with housing and food, to draw down their 401ks early without penalty, to get an early retirement package from their company, to pay at risk teachers for a year of sabbatical.. than it is to send every family, 70% of whom haven't even lost their jobs... stimulus checks
Know what the difference is if 50% of anyone under 65 got exposed to the virus versus 15% a year from now, the latter with sheltering in place, continued shutdown of schools,etc? Approximately 160,000 incremental deaths, or 0.05% of the US population... and thats if we did nothing for those 55+ or with underlying conditions.
Yes, 160K is still a lot, and worst-case scenario (and 50% vs 15% exposure in a year is quite a fucking gap)... but we need to stop scaring ourselves into thinking millions of lives are at stake if we open up and go back to school. The only way the latter is true is if we continue with these stupid, territorial/political geographic, one-sized-fits-all responses and we continue to send sick people back into nursing and assisted living homes.
Protect the elderly, the rest of the country needs to start living again.
What was equally puzzling after Don left the room Birx took the podium and explained about asymptomatic spread. But then went on to ignore what she just said as it pertains to gatherings (church) only recommend to avoid the gathering if you don't feel well.
I don't have a problem with churches holding service, but not in the typical norm pre-COVID. Many have been able to continue their service while practicing social distancing. Recently, there was a priest administering holy water via a squirt gun which is awesome in itself.
As much shit as I gladly heap on POTUS, he is a master at division. He'll turn the wedge issue into political gain. It will rally his base. The real question is if it will sway the independent.
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Yes I read it yesterday. The CDC did not say you can't get it from touching surfaces but it is much harder to transmit via that method. This will probably make some people more comfortable going out.
CDC also said the death rate was .4%. Based on that and the number of deaths thus far that would be about 25 million have been infected. Numbers of deaths can get very high depending how much of the population ultimately gets infected.
We really need to move away from generic death rates and generic messaging and responses.
What we really need to get away from is cherry picking data and acting like there's some magically easy decision to make.
Reopening won't be worth much if places shut down again less than 2 weeks later. I'm not posting this article to sensationalize the priest's death, my point is entirely re: the importance of reopening in a durable way vs. false starts that result in closing again and rolling back to stricter social distancing.
Texas church closes after priest dies, members get coronavirus - ( New Window )
The truth of the nature of asymptomatic contagion.
The truth of what is happening with kids. Why (thank God) it has a minor impact. Can they spread it? How? How long? Etc. Perhaps asymptomatic kids are driving the spread of this thing. This is one of the key mysteries in my mind.
The truth of the impact this disease has on the body. It does not seem to be only respiratory.
Answers critically neeeed
The truth of the nature of asymptomatic contagion.
The truth of what is happening with kids. Why (thank God) it has a minor impact. Can they spread it? How? How long? Etc. Perhaps asymptomatic kids are driving the spread of this thing. This is one of the key mysteries in my mind.
The truth of the impact this disease has on the body. It does not seem to be only respiratory.
Answers critically neeeed
Rocco, on your two final questions, I think the consensus is leading towards Cytokine Storms - an overwhelming immune response triggering an excessive release of cytokine proteins. My link above on the asthma treatment touches on the cytokine storm as a culprit, but the link below explains the Cytokine Storm and it's impact on the body.
Cytokine Storm Response caused by COVID-19 - ( New Window )
I have 3 kids in 2nd grade, 5th grade, and HS. The two younger kids go to an excellent school that under normal circumstances is excellently set up to serve all types of stdents. It is capped at 25 students per class with a gen ed teacher, special ed teacher, para, and student teacher. Every class is an ICT model with a 60/40 split of gen ed and special ed. So, you would think they would be a model for differentiated learning, even remotely. Nope. They each have a 30 minute live morning meeting on Google Meet every day and then receive a number of assignments in Google Classroom. One problem is for certain subjects they are receiving multiple assignments at once, which for some children is very overwhelming to see, even if they are not all intended to be completed at the same time. Many days it is a struggle to keep them engaged and focused once morning meeting is done.
My oldest, in HS, goes to one of the top HS in the country. Surprisingly, only 1 teacher does any, kind of actual instruction. 1 day a week his Chemistry teacher does a live lesson on Meet with all students on mute. Luckily, my son is getting up early on his own and does every assignment plus reading for his leisure all day, long.
The PR machine touts all the work teachers have done in NYC, and they have. But, the reality is the DOE did not prepare them at all for this. They had 3 days of "training" and prep. But, there are disparate systems across all schools. There is no true standard of apps or technique. Many teachers, and not just the stereotypical older teachers, who are not comfortable with technology enough to conduct remote learning. If this is something to potentially continue long term, in any capacity as has been rumored, then more has to be done than simply posting assignments on line. There must be actual instruction taking place.
I can tell you from experience that not enough people in DOE leadership understand technology in education enough to properly embrace it or lead the utilization in it. For a few years my office was working on implementing computer based testing as mandated by NYS. We kept advocating for technology to be incorporated into regular instruction. Overwhelmingly, from executive levels to principals to everything in between, this was taken to mean they simply needed computers in the schools and kids learn how to type. After all, this generation was born into technology. There is no talk of actually making use of technology to do things beyond what live instruction can do. There was no buy in to get schools to a level of 1:1 ratios of students to devices. Just typing and maybe mouse skills, maybe.
That still doesn't seem to have changed. There still doesn't seem to be a plan. And that is scary because there is no way NYC schools can open using the CDC measures. It will not be physically or logistically possible.
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In comment 14908787 Lines of Scrimmage said:
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Yes I read it yesterday. The CDC did not say you can't get it from touching surfaces but it is much harder to transmit via that method. This will probably make some people more comfortable going out.
CDC also said the death rate was .4%. Based on that and the number of deaths thus far that would be about 25 million have been infected. Numbers of deaths can get very high depending how much of the population ultimately gets infected.
We really need to move away from generic death rates and generic messaging and responses.
What we really need to get away from is cherry picking data and acting like there's some magically easy decision to make.
Reopening won't be worth much if places shut down again less than 2 weeks later. I'm not posting this article to sensationalize the priest's death, my point is entirely re: the importance of reopening in a durable way vs. false starts that result in closing again and rolling back to stricter social distancing. Texas church closes after priest dies, members get coronavirus - ( New Window )
Not cherry picking data. It’s CDC raw numbers ... if we can’t trust the cdcs numbers i don’t know what we can trust. You don’t trust cdc now?
I’m not drinking Clorox or listening to the WH. I didn’t even vote for him. Promise. Voted for Rubio and then Hillary.
Above all a vaccine is years away - we know enough Now that the younger Population will be ok.., There will unfortunately be outliers, just as there are with car accidents. I don’t live my life with a worst case scenario mindset because I know or believe there is something for us after this ... and I don’t see the point of sacrificing years of life (Because a mass vaccine ain’t coming) .., we have enough data people to make better, more granular Policy decisions Now... it’s insane to me that any fall school year would be closed down. It’s as pointed out above so massively destructive for our kids.
and I'm saying the exact opposite of "cancel school in the fall", my entire point is we need to do whatever it takes now to ensure we get a lasting reopen. Rushing into a reopen we aren't ready for is what will cancel schools in the fall.
If the then less risk population infection rate goes unchecked, the support apparatus for the ?M gets compromised.
It's incredibly complicated.
If the then less risk population infection rate goes unchecked, the support apparatus for the ?M gets compromised.
It's incredibly complicated.
Exactly. According to a quick google search as of 2011/12 30% of teachers are a50+. If any institution or organization opens haphazardly they won't be open very long. Whether it's a meat packing plant, factory, church, sports league, or school. It is in all of our best interests to find the ways to safely contain the virus as much as possible with things open (which we know is possible because other countries are doing it, it's just not easy). There really doesn't seem to be another option and that's why there isn't a single country that isn't attempting to do that (except maybe Brazil).
https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sass/tables/sass1112_2013314_t1s_002.asp - ( New Window )
A tremendous amount of progress a tremendous cost has been made. I completely agree the worst outcome would be starting this over again.
Without making this political -- if there are contemplation of future stimulus -- sharp focus on the acute needs of vulnerable populations is a pretty good place to start.
I can't fault a system that was suddenly massively ripped asunder with no real sense of how long the situation would last. It's unfair to fault DOE for being unprepared. Until Feb/Mar, no one would have suspected the change of life/learning.
With several months of preparation, though, things should be smoother IF another semester or two of remote learning happens. There's still going to be rough spots, and uneven application. A massive gov't bureaucracy is not going to smoothly change decades of practice in less than a year.
After New Coronavirus Outbreaks, China Imposes Wuhan-Style Lockdown - ( New Window )
After New Coronavirus Outbreaks, China Imposes Wuhan-Style Lockdown - ( New Window )
you didnt read the article did you?
It is a town in the northeast part of china, it is part jilin, not all of jilin is on lockdown..
they had 130 cases and locked down 200,000 people, it is not wuhan
After New Coronavirus Outbreaks, China Imposes Wuhan-Style Lockdown - ( New Window )
Cmon! You’re not even reading an article you posted?
Give this another month and see where the daily total of infections and deaths is trending.
In the meantime, it's way to early to drag my 70 YO ass to a restaurant.
Can someone be in favor of opening up and wearing a mask? Want the economy to flourish but help reduce the spread by simply wearing a mask? Is it against your freedoms to be told to wear a seatbelt or wear pants in a public place? It seems like such a simply little request and a disturbing percentage of our population is treating it like the British monarchy is trying to quarter soldiers in their homes.
Plus more people would return to normal shopping/eating out if they felt people were being safer around them. Helping local businesses and turning the economy around faster.
There’s basically no guidance from the president and that’s exactly what the office of the president is intended to provide. Yesterday my wife and I were remembering President Bush after 9/11, with a bullhorn standing on the rubble of the WTC telling those mother fuckers that we gonna get them or, and this still makes me proud, when he went out to Yanko and threw the first pitch at the WS. W wasn’t a war hero like his father but the story is that he demanded to do that first pitch to show Americans he wasn’t afraid. He was afraid, anyone would be, but he wanted to show people that we were going to live our lives and we gonna live without fear of cowardly terrorist. I didn’t support W with my vote (I was too pissed about what his people did to my guy in the SC primary but that’s another story). But I sure as heck supported President Bush as he was leading us through the days after 9/11. He was the CIC and we had been attacked. We needed to come together and Bush tried to bring us together. And you can say his policies weren’t great or right or maybe you say they were. But don’t tell me this country and New York weren’t united after 9/11. W led.
Same thing after Sandy with Obama and Christie. It’s possible to put the politics aside and bring Americans together. Most Presidents have an opportunity to do so at least once in their terms. And I think all of them usually have managed to do so. Until this one.
We need a leader to say that we have to get back to work. That this virus is bad but it isn’t the end of days. That we need to be especially careful of the most vulnerable. That we need to take sensible and prudent measures like wearing a mask in public and washing our hands five or more times a day. We need to encourage people to observes these and other sensible measures like voluntary testing and contact tracing. This isn’t rocket science, it just make sense. And leading in this time really shouldn’t be that difficult.
Finally, I think the silence and complicity and enablement of this colossal failure of leadership is unpardonable. How good smart people can continue to pretend there’s nothing wrong in the WH is beyond me.
Can someone be in favor of opening up and wearing a mask? Want the economy to flourish but help reduce the spread by simply wearing a mask? Is it against your freedoms to be told to wear a seatbelt or wear pants in a public place? It seems like such a simply little request and a disturbing percentage of our population is treating it like the British monarchy is trying to quarter soldiers in their homes.
Plus more people would return to normal shopping/eating out if they felt people were being safer around them. Helping local businesses and turning the economy around faster.
I see these people opting not to wear masks in public indoor places as humongous pussies. Whining about their rights being violated because they don't want to tie one of their beer stained shirts around their faces. Imagine if this was the moxie of our populace during WWII.
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"Be American buy war bonds." Imagine posters of Uncle Sam in a mask saying "Be American wear your mask, protect the most at risk". Remember "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country"... wear a mask in public.
Can someone be in favor of opening up and wearing a mask? Want the economy to flourish but help reduce the spread by simply wearing a mask? Is it against your freedoms to be told to wear a seatbelt or wear pants in a public place? It seems like such a simply little request and a disturbing percentage of our population is treating it like the British monarchy is trying to quarter soldiers in their homes.
Plus more people would return to normal shopping/eating out if they felt people were being safer around them. Helping local businesses and turning the economy around faster.
I see these people opting not to wear masks in public indoor places as humongous pussies. Whining about their rights being violated because they don't want to tie one of their beer stained shirts around their faces. Imagine if this was the moxie of our populace during WWII.
I can't fault a system that was suddenly massively ripped asunder with no real sense of how long the situation would last. It's unfair to fault DOE for being unprepared. Until Feb/Mar, no one would have suspected the change of life/learning.
With several months of preparation, though, things should be smoother IF another semester or two of remote learning happens. There's still going to be rough spots, and uneven application. A massive gov't bureaucracy is not going to smoothly change decades of practice in less than a year.
And with the same amount of planning, other places implemented better solutions, including some Charter networks here in NYC.
And, bad decisions were made throughout. For example, why did they spend $3M on iPads? First of all, they are not as functional for the kind of learning and volume of learning required. Second, they are far more expensive. When equity and exclusion were issues, it would have made more sense to order Chromebooks where they wold have either spent significantly less or received significantly more devices for the same price.
And please don't be fooled by the PR machine blaming severe cuts on COVID. There has been gross mismanagement of budgets (see above iPad decision, for example) for a long time. While the current situation may have impacted the current budget situation, it is not really the driving force.
The lack of clear guidance and unity is 100% the biggest obstacle because by nature our society is entitled and there's been active endorsement against expert guidance this entire time. An enormous chunk of the country thinks Bill Gates is trying to microchip them. More than any other factor like testing, that is where we have lagged behind the frequent comparisons (SK, Germany, NZ, Sweden).
The lack of clear guidance and unity is 100% the biggest obstacle because by nature our society is entitled and there's been active endorsement against expert guidance this entire time. An enormous chunk of the country thinks Bill Gates is trying to microchip them. More than any other factor like testing, that is where we have lagged behind the frequent comparisons (SK, Germany, NZ, Sweden).
He went to complain that this nation hasn't built a new airport in 25 years. Yet, he points to what he is doing with La Guardia. Hello? That's not new. It's putting lipstick on a pig. We haven't protected our bridges, mass transit, etc. All valid observations. Buut, what has NYS done to these ends? Our only soltion is wait for the federal government to bail us out? That doesn't sound like the resolve on NYers he is talking about.
Goes on to ask if we really think this will be the last public health crisis. Great. But, yo have been warned by your experts for years and yo ignored their warnings. It's all bullshit. But, since he sits there calmly to spew his bullshit and because he isn't over 70 we are all supposed to sit here and bow down to him?
I have 3 kids in 2nd grade, 5th grade, and HS. The two younger kids go to an excellent school that under normal circumstances is excellently set up to serve all types of stdents. It is capped at 25 students per class with a gen ed teacher, special ed teacher, para, and student teacher. Every class is an ICT model with a 60/40 split of gen ed and special ed. So, you would think they would be a model for differentiated learning, even remotely. Nope. They each have a 30 minute live morning meeting on Google Meet every day and then receive a number of assignments in Google Classroom. One problem is for certain subjects they are receiving multiple assignments at once, which for some children is very overwhelming to see, even if they are not all intended to be completed at the same time. Many days it is a struggle to keep them engaged and focused once morning meeting is done.
My oldest, in HS, goes to one of the top HS in the country. Surprisingly, only 1 teacher does any, kind of actual instruction. 1 day a week his Chemistry teacher does a live lesson on Meet with all students on mute. Luckily, my son is getting up early on his own and does every assignment plus reading for his leisure all day, long.
The PR machine touts all the work teachers have done in NYC, and they have. But, the reality is the DOE did not prepare them at all for this. They had 3 days of "training" and prep. But, there are disparate systems across all schools. There is no true standard of apps or technique. Many teachers, and not just the stereotypical older teachers, who are not comfortable with technology enough to conduct remote learning. If this is something to potentially continue long term, in any capacity as has been rumored, then more has to be done than simply posting assignments on line. There must be actual instruction taking place.
I can tell you from experience that not enough people in DOE leadership understand technology in education enough to properly embrace it or lead the utilization in it. For a few years my office was working on implementing computer based testing as mandated by NYS. We kept advocating for technology to be incorporated into regular instruction. Overwhelmingly, from executive levels to principals to everything in between, this was taken to mean they simply needed computers in the schools and kids learn how to type. After all, this generation was born into technology. There is no talk of actually making use of technology to do things beyond what live instruction can do. There was no buy in to get schools to a level of 1:1 ratios of students to devices. Just typing and maybe mouse skills, maybe.
That still doesn't seem to have changed. There still doesn't seem to be a plan. And that is scary because there is no way NYC schools can open using the CDC measures. It will not be physically or logistically possible.
Having practiced Education Law in both NY and Florida for 25 years I can confidently state that when it comes to embracing technology in K-12 education NY has been behind states like Florida for quite sometime. COVID-19 has brought the disparity to light. I have family in NY that includes teachers and students. My wife is a teacher here in Florida and my daughter is a HS student. My wife and daughter were much better prepared for the conversion to virtual learning then my family in NY. It’s a shame really because most (not all) NY school districts have greater financial resources than districts in states like Florida.
We need a leader to say that we have to get back to work. That this virus is bad but it isn’t the end of days. That we need to be especially careful of the most vulnerable. That we need to take sensible and prudent measures like wearing a mask in public and washing our hands five or more times a day. We need to encourage people to observes these and other sensible measures like voluntary testing and contact tracing. This isn’t rocket science, it just make sense. And leading in this time really shouldn’t be that difficult.
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We need a leader to say that we have to get back to work. That this virus is bad but it isn’t the end of days. That we need to be especially careful of the most vulnerable. That we need to take sensible and prudent measures like wearing a mask in public and washing our hands five or more times a day. We need to encourage people to observes these and other sensible measures like voluntary testing and contact tracing. This isn’t rocket science, it just make sense. And leading in this time really shouldn’t be that difficult.
I think that has been pretty close to the messaging I've heard from the collective voice of the WH, actually. I not disagree that there have been plenty of distracting or curious (at best) messages dispersed in between but the general thesis seems to be to open up the economy when and where appropriate and practice common-sense precautionary safety measures.
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In NYC, at least, there is no way remote learning can proceed next year as it is now. Publicly, they are trying to highlight individual positive cases and tell you how many students received free iPads. The reality is students are not being engaged and there are still thousands (tens of thousands? more?) of students without devices. Also, iPads are not ideal for all day learning, especially not without keyboards. They are also cost prohibitive. For the $3M NYC spent on iPads they could have purchased 2-3 times as many Chromebooks, which are much more functional for the level of learning now required.
I have 3 kids in 2nd grade, 5th grade, and HS. The two younger kids go to an excellent school that under normal circumstances is excellently set up to serve all types of stdents. It is capped at 25 students per class with a gen ed teacher, special ed teacher, para, and student teacher. Every class is an ICT model with a 60/40 split of gen ed and special ed. So, you would think they would be a model for differentiated learning, even remotely. Nope. They each have a 30 minute live morning meeting on Google Meet every day and then receive a number of assignments in Google Classroom. One problem is for certain subjects they are receiving multiple assignments at once, which for some children is very overwhelming to see, even if they are not all intended to be completed at the same time. Many days it is a struggle to keep them engaged and focused once morning meeting is done.
My oldest, in HS, goes to one of the top HS in the country. Surprisingly, only 1 teacher does any, kind of actual instruction. 1 day a week his Chemistry teacher does a live lesson on Meet with all students on mute. Luckily, my son is getting up early on his own and does every assignment plus reading for his leisure all day, long.
The PR machine touts all the work teachers have done in NYC, and they have. But, the reality is the DOE did not prepare them at all for this. They had 3 days of "training" and prep. But, there are disparate systems across all schools. There is no true standard of apps or technique. Many teachers, and not just the stereotypical older teachers, who are not comfortable with technology enough to conduct remote learning. If this is something to potentially continue long term, in any capacity as has been rumored, then more has to be done than simply posting assignments on line. There must be actual instruction taking place.
I can tell you from experience that not enough people in DOE leadership understand technology in education enough to properly embrace it or lead the utilization in it. For a few years my office was working on implementing computer based testing as mandated by NYS. We kept advocating for technology to be incorporated into regular instruction. Overwhelmingly, from executive levels to principals to everything in between, this was taken to mean they simply needed computers in the schools and kids learn how to type. After all, this generation was born into technology. There is no talk of actually making use of technology to do things beyond what live instruction can do. There was no buy in to get schools to a level of 1:1 ratios of students to devices. Just typing and maybe mouse skills, maybe.
That still doesn't seem to have changed. There still doesn't seem to be a plan. And that is scary because there is no way NYC schools can open using the CDC measures. It will not be physically or logistically possible.
Having practiced Education Law in both NY and Florida for 25 years I can confidently state that when it comes to embracing technology in K-12 education NY has been behind states like Florida for quite sometime. COVID-19 has brought the disparity to light. I have family in NY that includes teachers and students. My wife is a teacher here in Florida and my daughter is a HS student. My wife and daughter were much better prepared for the conversion to virtual learning then my family in NY. It’s a shame really because most (not all) NY school districts have greater financial resources than districts in states like Florida.
So walking outdoors or passing someone on a jog is very unlikely to carry much risk while working indoors at a meat-packing plant, taking in another Knicks loss inside the Garden, enjoying a sit-down meal in a restaurant, or air travel would carry much more risk. Even grocery shopping has limited risk due to the low relative exposure to personal interactions.
I wear my n95 inside the grocery store because its mandated but the complete lack of critical thinking in these mandates is worrisome as its not supported by the science, from what I've gathered. I do not and will not wear a mask outdoors while walking with my family or jogging or whatever because its simply ridiculous and again, not supported by science. I won't even broach the subject of playgrounds. The purity tests that some want to ascribe to mask usage in certain situations (not directed at those referring to indoor usage) is another demonstration of psuedointellect from first-order thinkers.
Risks-Know Them-Avoid Them - ( New Window )
So walking outdoors or passing someone on a jog is very unlikely to carry much risk while working indoors at a meat-packing plant, taking in another Knicks loss inside the Garden, enjoying a sit-down meal in a restaurant, or air travel would carry much more risk. Even grocery shopping has limited risk due to the low relative exposure to personal interactions.
I wear my n95 inside the grocery store because its mandated but the complete lack of critical thinking in these mandates is worrisome as its not supported by the science, from what I've gathered. I do not and will not wear a mask outdoors while walking with my family or jogging or whatever because its simply ridiculous and again, not supported by science. I won't even broach the subject of playgrounds. The purity tests that some want to ascribe to mask usage in certain situations (not directed at those referring to indoor usage) is another demonstration of psuedointellect from first-order thinkers. Risks-Know Them-Avoid Them - ( New Window )
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In comment 14909886 trueblueinpw said:
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We need a leader to say that we have to get back to work. That this virus is bad but it isn’t the end of days. That we need to be especially careful of the most vulnerable. That we need to take sensible and prudent measures like wearing a mask in public and washing our hands five or more times a day. We need to encourage people to observes these and other sensible measures like voluntary testing and contact tracing. This isn’t rocket science, it just make sense. And leading in this time really shouldn’t be that difficult.
I think that has been pretty close to the messaging I've heard from the collective voice of the WH, actually. I not disagree that there have been plenty of distracting or curious (at best) messages dispersed in between but the general thesis seems to be to open up the economy when and where appropriate and practice common-sense precautionary safety measures.
Agreed. Hasn't this been more or less what the WH has been saying (not the experts, but WH staff, including the Pres) for a few weeks. But it is like a reverse pissing match. WH doesn't want to be on the hook for second wave in the wake of people disregarding CDC measures and same goes for some mayors/governors. They are all in political CYA mode not wanting to make the actual decision to say it is safe to open.
I'm not sure you can point to any politician that has handled the outbreak swimmingly and unfortunately the political dynamic in our country has led many to adopt absolute belief/support of individuals or parties. I'm quick to find fault with many ways in which Trump bungled the early response and his early messaging will (and should) be used against him in campaign season but there were also certain policy responses that seem prescient or by the book. Same goes for Cuomo, Newsome, DeSantis, et al.
Also someone in the government just needs to hire nike + weiden to make some commercials. The spot they just aired in the match to life on mars was a+.
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In comment 14909935 BurberryManning said:
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In comment 14909886 trueblueinpw said:
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We need a leader to say that we have to get back to work. That this virus is bad but it isn’t the end of days. That we need to be especially careful of the most vulnerable. That we need to take sensible and prudent measures like wearing a mask in public and washing our hands five or more times a day. We need to encourage people to observes these and other sensible measures like voluntary testing and contact tracing. This isn’t rocket science, it just make sense. And leading in this time really shouldn’t be that difficult.
I think that has been pretty close to the messaging I've heard from the collective voice of the WH, actually. I not disagree that there have been plenty of distracting or curious (at best) messages dispersed in between but the general thesis seems to be to open up the economy when and where appropriate and practice common-sense precautionary safety measures.
Agreed. Hasn't this been more or less what the WH has been saying (not the experts, but WH staff, including the Pres) for a few weeks. But it is like a reverse pissing match. WH doesn't want to be on the hook for second wave in the wake of people disregarding CDC measures and same goes for some mayors/governors. They are all in political CYA mode not wanting to make the actual decision to say it is safe to open.
I think you've hit the nail on the head. It's CYA for everyone because there is zero ability to fully prevent death or economic decline so the best political strategy is to speak out of both sides of your mouth and have enough sound bites to refute the claims of your opponent when they inevitably arise.
I'm not sure you can point to any politician that has handled the outbreak swimmingly and unfortunately the political dynamic in our country has led many to adopt absolute belief/support of individuals or parties. I'm quick to find fault with many ways in which Trump bungled the early response and his early messaging will (and should) be used against him in campaign season but there were also certain policy responses that seem prescient or by the book. Same goes for Cuomo, Newsome, DeSantis, et al.
This has been so politicized like nothing we have ever seen. Early in this pandemic we had politicians saying "dont worry come out to eat...come to china town". Deblasio went on the news and said there is nothing to worry about(and he went to the gym).
Then the WH does their dance also saying "no worse then the flu". Come on folks....these assholes are playing us for fools. All of these idiots are accountable. Did anyone see Shumur or Pelosi on the news saying we need to do more early on? Of course not. But when the impeachment was going on they were on every night.They are like us after football games...monday morning QBing. People need to wake up.
In many was our form of government is an issue in these situations. It can be argued that federalism is the real issue. Can you imagine if the president declared martial law? That is pretty much the only way to get all 50 states to do the same exact thing. Yet what governor is giving up any of his power...the answer is none.
Ive read this thread everyday since it started. Its really a microcosm of the country. People really do think one side is bad...the other good(which ever way you look at it). Its pretty sad...
*Newsflash* people were always going to die and will continue to die, even under the most draconian of preventative regimes. Sensationalizing 100k lives lost on the front page of the NYT (at least one name of which was a murder victim and forced them to issue a correction) as an implicit means to incriminate certain policies and politicians does not help matters. Why doesn't the NYT do the same for cancer or auto accidents or heart disease? Heart disease isn't contagious? No but its drivers are more structural and perverse than that of COVID. Death by auto is more spontaneous and involves the young and healthy at even higher rates. Unfortunately, death is inevitable across any time interval for a segment of society.
The ability to accept and understand death is not mutually exclusive with the ability to empathize and mourn. Instead of sensationalizing death perhaps we can contextualize the holistic impact of a virus within a country of +330mm Americans and that includes economic and social effects. At that point we can develop and deliver policies that optimize payoffs
This has been so politicized like nothing we have ever seen. Early in this pandemic we had politicians saying "dont worry come out to eat...come to china town". Deblasio went on the news and said there is nothing to worry about(and he went to the gym).
Then the WH does their dance also saying "no worse then the flu". Come on folks....these assholes are playing us for fools. All of these idiots are accountable. Did anyone see Shumur or Pelosi on the news saying we need to do more early on? Of course not. But when the impeachment was going on they were on every night.They are like us after football games...monday morning QBing. People need to wake up.
In many was our form of government is an issue in these situations. It can be argued that federalism is the real issue. Can you imagine if the president declared martial law? That is pretty much the only way to get all 50 states to do the same exact thing. Yet what governor is giving up any of his power...the answer is none.
Ive read this thread everyday since it started. Its really a microcosm of the country. People really do think one side is bad...the other good(which ever way you look at it). Its pretty sad...
Congress, state, and local officials were not privy to the same information that the White House and executive agencies were. They weren’t getting a daily National Intelligence brief that was ringing increasing louder alarm bells starting in late January. They weren’t aware of the lack of testing. They were relying on what was coming from the White House, which until mid-March was that there nothing whatsoever to worry about.
You are proving my point...Trump is an idiot in my opinion at times...However hydroxychloroquine has been prescribed for RA and Lupus...so many are/were already taking it prior to this mess. Didnt hear much about all the issues is was creating with this group. Again where was the democratic response? The answer is there was none....all they do is hate Trump...All Trump does i hate them....the lemmings on both sides are the real issue.
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In comment 14909936 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14909935 BurberryManning said:
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In comment 14909886 trueblueinpw said:
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We need a leader to say that we have to get back to work. That this virus is bad but it isn’t the end of days. That we need to be especially careful of the most vulnerable. That we need to take sensible and prudent measures like wearing a mask in public and washing our hands five or more times a day. We need to encourage people to observes these and other sensible measures like voluntary testing and contact tracing. This isn’t rocket science, it just make sense. And leading in this time really shouldn’t be that difficult.
I think that has been pretty close to the messaging I've heard from the collective voice of the WH, actually. I not disagree that there have been plenty of distracting or curious (at best) messages dispersed in between but the general thesis seems to be to open up the economy when and where appropriate and practice common-sense precautionary safety measures.
Agreed. Hasn't this been more or less what the WH has been saying (not the experts, but WH staff, including the Pres) for a few weeks. But it is like a reverse pissing match. WH doesn't want to be on the hook for second wave in the wake of people disregarding CDC measures and same goes for some mayors/governors. They are all in political CYA mode not wanting to make the actual decision to say it is safe to open.
I think you've hit the nail on the head. It's CYA for everyone because there is zero ability to fully prevent death or economic decline so the best political strategy is to speak out of both sides of your mouth and have enough sound bites to refute the claims of your opponent when they inevitably arise.
I'm not sure you can point to any politician that has handled the outbreak swimmingly and unfortunately the political dynamic in our country has led many to adopt absolute belief/support of individuals or parties. I'm quick to find fault with many ways in which Trump bungled the early response and his early messaging will (and should) be used against him in campaign season but there were also certain policy responses that seem prescient or by the book. Same goes for Cuomo, Newsome, DeSantis, et al.
This has been so politicized like nothing we have ever seen. Early in this pandemic we had politicians saying "dont worry come out to eat...come to china town". Deblasio went on the news and said there is nothing to worry about(and he went to the gym).
Then the WH does their dance also saying "no worse then the flu". Come on folks....these assholes are playing us for fools. All of these idiots are accountable. Did anyone see Shumur or Pelosi on the news saying we need to do more early on? Of course not. But when the impeachment was going on they were on every night.They are like us after football games...monday morning QBing. People need to wake up.
In many was our form of government is an issue in these situations. It can be argued that federalism is the real issue. Can you imagine if the president declared martial law? That is pretty much the only way to get all 50 states to do the same exact thing. Yet what governor is giving up any of his power...the answer is none.
Ive read this thread everyday since it started. Its really a microcosm of the country. People really do think one side is bad...the other good(which ever way you look at it). Its pretty sad...
[quote] In comment 14909974 GIANTS128 said:
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This has been so politicized like nothing we have ever seen. Early in this pandemic we had politicians saying "dont worry come out to eat...come to china town". Deblasio went on the news and said there is nothing to worry about(and he went to the gym).
Then the WH does their dance also saying "no worse then the flu". Come on folks....these assholes are playing us for fools. All of these idiots are accountable. Did anyone see Shumur or Pelosi on the news saying we need to do more early on? Of course not. But when the impeachment was going on they were on every night.They are like us after football games...monday morning QBing. People need to wake up.
In many was our form of government is an issue in these situations. It can be argued that federalism is the real issue. Can you imagine if the president declared martial law? That is pretty much the only way to get all 50 states to do the same exact thing. Yet what governor is giving up any of his power...the answer is none.
Ive read this thread everyday since it started. Its really a microcosm of the country. People really do think one side is bad...the other good(which ever way you look at it). Its pretty sad...
Congress, state, and local officials were not privy to the same information that the White House and executive agencies were. They weren’t getting a daily National Intelligence brief that was ringing increasing louder alarm bells starting in late January. They weren’t aware of the lack of testing. They were relying on what was coming from the White House, which until mid-March was that there nothing whatsoever to worry about. [/quote
Commmmmme on mannnnnn. Nobody knew anything but the white house???? then why did those senators sell all that stock....where is your proof nobody knew?
Very fair post. I was out for most of the day. People with masks (mostly) and some not (running, exercising, family walking keeping distance, etc,). Seems like people just trying to live life and be safe to me.
Flick between Fox and CNN. CNN is all over the states opening up and showing pictures of people together. Hello......it is up to the individual at this point to follow guidelines imo. How about the networks blast the people. Do we want 50% unemployment and all that will bring with it?
Politicians are all going to protect themselves. I find it amazing that a leader can't acknowledge a mistake/error but this is what we deal with today....that is both sides of the political spectrum.
This was a exceptionally complex problem with very little preparation over many, many years. Acknowledge, adjust and press forward together. We will all be better for it.
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In comment 14909948 BurberryManning said:
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In comment 14909936 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14909935 BurberryManning said:
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In comment 14909886 trueblueinpw said:
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We need a leader to say that we have to get back to work. That this virus is bad but it isn’t the end of days. That we need to be especially careful of the most vulnerable. That we need to take sensible and prudent measures like wearing a mask in public and washing our hands five or more times a day. We need to encourage people to observes these and other sensible measures like voluntary testing and contact tracing. This isn’t rocket science, it just make sense. And leading in this time really shouldn’t be that difficult.
I think that has been pretty close to the messaging I've heard from the collective voice of the WH, actually. I not disagree that there have been plenty of distracting or curious (at best) messages dispersed in between but the general thesis seems to be to open up the economy when and where appropriate and practice common-sense precautionary safety measures.
Agreed. Hasn't this been more or less what the WH has been saying (not the experts, but WH staff, including the Pres) for a few weeks. But it is like a reverse pissing match. WH doesn't want to be on the hook for second wave in the wake of people disregarding CDC measures and same goes for some mayors/governors. They are all in political CYA mode not wanting to make the actual decision to say it is safe to open.
I think you've hit the nail on the head. It's CYA for everyone because there is zero ability to fully prevent death or economic decline so the best political strategy is to speak out of both sides of your mouth and have enough sound bites to refute the claims of your opponent when they inevitably arise.
I'm not sure you can point to any politician that has handled the outbreak swimmingly and unfortunately the political dynamic in our country has led many to adopt absolute belief/support of individuals or parties. I'm quick to find fault with many ways in which Trump bungled the early response and his early messaging will (and should) be used against him in campaign season but there were also certain policy responses that seem prescient or by the book. Same goes for Cuomo, Newsome, DeSantis, et al.
This has been so politicized like nothing we have ever seen. Early in this pandemic we had politicians saying "dont worry come out to eat...come to china town". Deblasio went on the news and said there is nothing to worry about(and he went to the gym).
Then the WH does their dance also saying "no worse then the flu". Come on folks....these assholes are playing us for fools. All of these idiots are accountable. Did anyone see Shumur or Pelosi on the news saying we need to do more early on? Of course not. But when the impeachment was going on they were on every night.They are like us after football games...monday morning QBing. People need to wake up.
In many was our form of government is an issue in these situations. It can be argued that federalism is the real issue. Can you imagine if the president declared martial law? That is pretty much the only way to get all 50 states to do the same exact thing. Yet what governor is giving up any of his power...the answer is none.
Ive read this thread everyday since it started. Its really a microcosm of the country. People really do think one side is bad...the other good(which ever way you look at it). Its pretty sad...
Nope. Me personally, I just think mpst politicians are bad and irresponsible. Optics, re-election, donations are all paramount to doing the right thing. This is only one large example.
agreed...100%
The UV light, bleach, and Lysol comments are similar. Dumb questions from someone clearly out of their element to authorities with legitimate expertise. That presser was akin to a teenager thinking out loud in a classroom. Totally unnecessarily on national television? 100%. But an explicit endorsement from the POTUS to ingest bleach or hit up tanning salons? Hardly.
Unfortunately, these situations are high stakes for politicians and incentivizes their “hero moments” when it would serve us better to have a broader consortium of experts from various sectors driving policy.
“When the facts changes, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”- Keynes (but not really?)
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is fair game. Both sides have a share of some blame. But one side puts out dangerous stupidity.“You know we take a little bit of a period of time, I think it was two weeks, but hydroxy has had tremendous, if you look at it, tremendous, rave reviews.”
Didn’t Cuomo express optimism regarding HCQ, also? And I don’t really blame him because these folks are not experts and they want to provide optimism. The extrapolation of anecdotal evidence and the implications of “what do you have to lose?” aren't necessarily misguided when you’re grasping for straws. There’s a reason why it’s approved for Emergency Use Authorization and not fully approved or recommended. As our learning evolves we’re finding it might have more preventative value that treatment efficacy.
The UV light, bleach, and Lysol comments are similar. Dumb questions from someone clearly out of their element to authorities with legitimate expertise. That presser was akin to a teenager thinking out loud in a classroom. Totally unnecessarily on national television? 100%. But an explicit endorsement from the POTUS to ingest bleach or hit up tanning salons? Hardly.
Unfortunately, these situations are high stakes for politicians and incentivizes their “hero moments” when it would serve us better to have a broader consortium of experts from various sectors driving policy.
“When the facts changes, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”- Keynes (but not really?)
Politicians are all going to protect themselves. I find it amazing that a leader can't acknowledge a mistake/error but this is what we deal with today....that is both sides of the political spectrum. [/quote}
there it is !! BOTHSIDESIM!! sorry but no! it is only one side that has politicized wearing mask and social distancing
The Imperial College researchers estimated the virus's reproduction number, known as R0, or R naught. This is the average number of infections generated by each infected person in a vulnerable population. The researchers found the reproduction number has dropped below 1 in the District and 26 states. In those places, as of May 17, the epidemic was waning.
In 24 states, however, the model shows a reproduction number over 1. Texas tops the list, followed by Arizona, Illinois, Colorado, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa, Alabama, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, Delaware, South Carolina, Massachusetts, North Carolina, California, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Maryland.
State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States (PDF) - ( New Window )
Politicians are all going to protect themselves. I find it amazing that a leader can't acknowledge a mistake/error but this is what we deal with today....that is both sides of the political spectrum. [/quote}
there it is !! BOTHSIDESIM!! sorry but no! it is only one side that has politicized wearing mask and social distancing
The Imperial College researchers estimated the virus's reproduction number, known as R0, or R naught. This is the average number of infections generated by each infected person in a vulnerable population. The researchers found the reproduction number has dropped below 1 in the District and 26 states. In those places, as of May 17, the epidemic was waning.
In 24 states, however, the model shows a reproduction number over 1. Texas tops the list, followed by Arizona, Illinois, Colorado, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa, Alabama, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, Delaware, South Carolina, Massachusetts, North Carolina, California, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Maryland. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States (PDF) - ( New Window )
People want to blame the Congress for their pathetic corporate bailouts then that’s probably more fertile ground for the “both sides” argument.
I will say this though, and I mean this in the spirit of understanding and with all respect, I honestly don’t see how people continue to defend this president.
one side is not better, or worse, than the other, and yet the country is divided by masses swearing their side is divine, while the other is demon spawn.
I don't dislike Trump because of the way he talks/tweets, although I do find it embarrassing. Most of what he says is typical political talk, just in different lingo. Cuomo gets love because he has a silver tongue, but he's just another politician. Both should be judged on their political wheeling/dealing, not how they talk. There's good and bad to both.
Let's see how it plays out. The virus is not the only thing we are going to have to deal with but many still do not reality to this.
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is fair game. Both sides have a share of some blame. But one side puts out dangerous stupidity.“You know we take a little bit of a period of time, I think it was two weeks, but hydroxy has had tremendous, if you look at it, tremendous, rave reviews.”
You are proving my point...Trump is an idiot in my opinion at times...However hydroxychloroquine has been prescribed for RA and Lupus...so many are/were already taking it prior to this mess. Didnt hear much about all the issues is was creating with this group. Again where was the democratic response? The answer is there was none....all they do is hate Trump...All Trump does i hate them....the lemmings on both sides are the real issue.
This makes no sense. Hydroxychloroquine has been CLINICALLY TESTED and found to work for Rheumatoid Arthritis and Lupus. There has been no such study done with it in regards to COVID-19. That's kind of a big difference.
It was absolutely ridiculous to promote it as the solution and continue to keep pushing it despite there being mounting evidence towards it's inefficacy. There is absolutely no excuse for it. People who are rightfully calling that out aren't lemmings.
seriously - I mean it did not take rocket scientist to know that a failed Reality TV Game Show host would be a miserable failure as President .. it is scary how much Fox News has brainwashed a good portion of this country.
I guess it is just a coincidence that the two counties with the WORST response to Covid19 Pandemic are lead by Autocratic imbeciles (Spoiler Alert Brazil and USA). Just look at history - corrupt administrations are always incompetent
But you know both sides!!
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I will say this though, and I mean this in the spirit of understanding and with all respect, I honestly don’t see how people continue to defend this president.
seriously - I mean it did not take rocket scientist to know that a failed Reality TV Game Show host would be a miserable failure as President .. it is scary how much Fox News has brainwashed a good portion of this country.
I guess it is just a coincidence that the two counties with the WORST response to Covid19 Pandemic are lead by Autocratic imbeciles (Spoiler Alert Brazil and USA). Just look at history - corrupt administrations are always incompetent
But you know both sides!!
The USA and Brazil had the worst responses to COVID?? One way to make a vapid political post is to make up the truth.
The USA was not the first or second worst response.
Let's see how it plays out. The virus is not the only thing we are going to have to deal with but many still do not reality to this.
To me though, this just seems like something that any reasonable person would say. (And to be clear, Biden wasn’t my choice from the Dems at any point). And you’re right, the biggest problem now is the economy. Which brings me back to my original point that we need leadership to give sensible and consistent guidance on getting back to life. The president has everyone so agitated and confused and afraid or completely tuned out that any sort of a recovery is highly questionable. And yet people want to talk about some other politicians refrigerator as that somehow makes all the tomfoolery in the WH okay. It’s bizarre man. I’m not a partisan at all, most of my conservative friends think I’m a liberal and most of my liberal friends think I’m a conservative. The truth is, I just call like I see it. And this guy in the WH is, at best, completely out of his depth.
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In comment 14909998 XBRONX said:
Quote:
is fair game. Both sides have a share of some blame. But one side puts out dangerous stupidity.“You know we take a little bit of a period of time, I think it was two weeks, but hydroxy has had tremendous, if you look at it, tremendous, rave reviews.”
Didn’t Cuomo express optimism regarding HCQ, also? And I don’t really blame him because these folks are not experts and they want to provide optimism. The extrapolation of anecdotal evidence and the implications of “what do you have to lose?” aren't necessarily misguided when you’re grasping for straws. There’s a reason why it’s approved for Emergency Use Authorization and not fully approved or recommended. As our learning evolves we’re finding it might have more preventative value that treatment efficacy.
The UV light, bleach, and Lysol comments are similar. Dumb questions from someone clearly out of their element to authorities with legitimate expertise. That presser was akin to a teenager thinking out loud in a classroom. Totally unnecessarily on national television? 100%. But an explicit endorsement from the POTUS to ingest bleach or hit up tanning salons? Hardly.
Unfortunately, these situations are high stakes for politicians and incentivizes their “hero moments” when it would serve us better to have a broader consortium of experts from various sectors driving policy.
“When the facts changes, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”- Keynes (but not really?)
An outright endorsement? No. But, it is very dangerous, especially for the President. First, many are looking to daily briefings for news. The President pushing certain drugs or thinking out loud about specific situations is not much different than an endorsement for many listeners. It becomes more dangerous when the rhetoric from the WH is constantly fake news. If you are telling people not to listen to/read the news, then you better be factual in your statements. And this goes for plenty of politicians from both sides right now.
People want to blame the Congress for their pathetic corporate bailouts then that’s probably more fertile ground for the “both sides” argument.
I will say this though, and I mean this in the spirit of understanding and with all respect, I honestly don’t see how people continue to defend this president.
I have my list but I'd like to hear your list of what you think you would've done differently at POTUS given the same circumstances as 45 (and I don't think he handles it well). I'm of the opinion that zero politicians within the same context could've come out looking swell....
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Go fuck yourself. Seriously.
Your opinion means so little to me and the world that your anger makes me smile
Very douchey thing to say. He lost family to this. Don’t be such a gaping asshole.
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In comment 14910019 Kyle_ said:
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Go fuck yourself. Seriously.
Your opinion means so little to me and the world that your anger makes me smile
Very douchey thing to say. He lost family to this. Don’t be such a gaping asshole.
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I will say this though, and I mean this in the spirit of understanding and with all respect, I honestly don’t see how people continue to defend this president.
seriously - I mean it did not take rocket scientist to know that a failed Reality TV Game Show host would be a miserable failure as President .. it is scary how much Fox News has brainwashed a good portion of this country.
I guess it is just a coincidence that the two counties with the WORST response to Covid19 Pandemic are lead by Autocratic imbeciles (Spoiler Alert Brazil and USA). Just look at history - corrupt administrations are always incompetent
But you know both sides!!
The USA and Brazil had the worst responses to COVID?? One way to make a vapid political post is to make up the truth.
The USA was not the first or second worst response.
Sadly, the subsequent follow-ups have confirmed the blithe dismissal.of the dead, and thus retroactively justified the sentiment expressed.
I've nothing more to say someone like you, and you've already expressed the same to me. Carry on.
one side is not better, or worse, than the other, and yet the country is divided by masses swearing their side is divine, while the other is demon spawn.
I don't dislike Trump because of the way he talks/tweets, although I do find it embarrassing. Most of what he says is typical political talk, just in different lingo. Cuomo gets love because he has a silver tongue, but he's just another politician. Both should be judged on their political wheeling/dealing, not how they talk. There's good and bad to both.
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In comment 14910050 giantfan2000 said:
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I will say this though, and I mean this in the spirit of understanding and with all respect, I honestly don’t see how people continue to defend this president.
seriously - I mean it did not take rocket scientist to know that a failed Reality TV Game Show host would be a miserable failure as President .. it is scary how much Fox News has brainwashed a good portion of this country.
I guess it is just a coincidence that the two counties with the WORST response to Covid19 Pandemic are lead by Autocratic imbeciles (Spoiler Alert Brazil and USA). Just look at history - corrupt administrations are always incompetent
But you know both sides!!
The USA and Brazil had the worst responses to COVID?? One way to make a vapid political post is to make up the truth.
The USA was not the first or second worst response.
That's one of the ridiculous outcomes in this. Politicians at the forefront from both sides think their briefings and these times are a reality TV show or something. Things look great. My briefings get great ratings. Looks at NYS compared to other states. Blah blah blah.
There is exactly one politician who brags about the ratings of his press “briefings”. You don’t have to Both Sides every point.
Sadly, the subsequent follow-ups have confirmed the blithe dismissal.of the dead, and thus retroactively justified the sentiment expressed.
I've nothing more to say someone like you, and you've already expressed the same to me. Carry on.
I don't want to minimize anyone and am genuinely sorry for your loss (and that which we've all (including myself) have experienced).
I know there are pockets of the equity market that have been trading (dipping) along with the odds of a Dem sweep including the Senate but that seems to be a stretch
What's Nate telling us about the battleground states?
From a markets perspective, watch out for the China ADRs which seem soon to be unlisted as bipartisan legislation comes through to block foreign companies without US accounting standards
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In comment 14910060 FatMan in Charlotte said:
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In comment 14910050 giantfan2000 said:
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I will say this though, and I mean this in the spirit of understanding and with all respect, I honestly don’t see how people continue to defend this president.
seriously - I mean it did not take rocket scientist to know that a failed Reality TV Game Show host would be a miserable failure as President .. it is scary how much Fox News has brainwashed a good portion of this country.
I guess it is just a coincidence that the two counties with the WORST response to Covid19 Pandemic are lead by Autocratic imbeciles (Spoiler Alert Brazil and USA). Just look at history - corrupt administrations are always incompetent
But you know both sides!!
The USA and Brazil had the worst responses to COVID?? One way to make a vapid political post is to make up the truth.
The USA was not the first or second worst response.
That's one of the ridiculous outcomes in this. Politicians at the forefront from both sides think their briefings and these times are a reality TV show or something. Things look great. My briefings get great ratings. Looks at NYS compared to other states. Blah blah blah.
There is exactly one politician who brags about the ratings of his press “briefings”. You don’t have to Both Sides every point.
There is exactly one politician who brags about the ratings of his press “briefings”. You don’t have to Both Sides every point.
Chris, yes, one guy bragged about ratings. But, now I hear Cuomo talking about how good NYS numbers look. Sound familiar.
Those are not the same things. But whatever.
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In comment 14910120 Chris in Philly
There is exactly one politician who brags about the ratings of his press “briefings”. You don’t have to Both Sides every point.
Chris, yes, one guy bragged about ratings. But, now I hear Cuomo talking about how good NYS numbers look. Sound familiar.
Those are not the same things. But whatever.
The whataboutism is amazing to see how it completely ignores the actual levels that go into it. One side can completely go off the deep end but if the other makes a minor gaffe it's treated the same
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In comment 14910130 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14910120 Chris in Philly
There is exactly one politician who brags about the ratings of his press “briefings”. You don’t have to Both Sides every point.
Chris, yes, one guy bragged about ratings. But, now I hear Cuomo talking about how good NYS numbers look. Sound familiar.
Those are not the same things. But whatever.
The whataboutism is amazing to see how it completely ignores the actual levels that go into it. One side can completely go off the deep end but if the other makes a minor gaffe it's treated the same
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In comment 14910131 Chris in Philly said:
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In comment 14910130 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14910120 Chris in Philly
There is exactly one politician who brags about the ratings of his press “briefings”. You don’t have to Both Sides every point.
Chris, yes, one guy bragged about ratings. But, now I hear Cuomo talking about how good NYS numbers look. Sound familiar.
Those are not the same things. But whatever.
The whataboutism is amazing to see how it completely ignores the actual levels that go into it. One side can completely go off the deep end but if the other makes a minor gaffe it's treated the same
Montana, we can go around in circles, it won't make anyone happy nor will we reach an agreement. As with many things in life, accept the imperfect.
That is a fair point BM!
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In comment 14910120 Chris in Philly
There is exactly one politician who brags about the ratings of his press “briefings”. You don’t have to Both Sides every point.
Chris, yes, one guy bragged about ratings. But, now I hear Cuomo talking about how good NYS numbers look. Sound familiar.
Those are not the same things. But whatever.
Now my main concerns are twofold. When will the panic end and we can get back to "normal" and how will we respond to the next pandemic? We cannot go through this again.
I find Trump's oratory very 'un-Presidential', but at core, the message is pretty much the same as most politicians. He's just much more in your face with it.
Make no mistake, he's a flawed President. The disinfectant/UV thing was off the deep end. His team dynamics are abysmal. Some of his actions seem off the cuff, and counter productive. But there have been good moments, too. And, IMO, there has never been a President without flaws.
Now my main concerns are twofold. When will the panic end and we can get back to "normal" and how will we respond to the next pandemic? We cannot go through this again.
It's an unpredictable thing, unfortunately. New second wave and all that. And it is going to be weeks (delays inherent in the virus's nature and growth and in fact gathering and dissemination) before we can get a handle on just how mere social distancing and general, if not universali, mask use is affecting things. It amazes me that even the airlines (unavoidable closeness and containment) are sort of starting back up -- and might be the most potent of the risks to us all that are still tolerated qenerally instead of condemned, even actually encouraged by a few notable politicians. Reignition of virus spread in the U.S.? Gads, we sure don't need that and its mounting death tolls again. But nothing is or can be for certain right now.
345,000 people have died from Covid19 worldwide today 98k are from US.
put it another way
USA has 4.25% of World population but 28.5% of the Covid deaths.
The US economy is in shambles.. Unemployment rate is 14.7% and surging upwards
and yet there are still some that say Trump has had some good moments
it is truly incredible how years of Fox News disinformation and lies has brainwashed a large percentage of US Population .
I am really worried for this country .. if people can not look at numerical facts and make rational judgements - we are doomed as a nation.
I find Trump's oratory very 'un-Presidential', but at core, the message is pretty much the same as most politicians. He's just much more in your face with it.
Make no mistake, he's a flawed President. The disinfectant/UV thing was off the deep end. His team dynamics are abysmal. Some of his actions seem off the cuff, and counter productive. But there have been good moments, too. And, IMO, there has never been a President without flaws.
Flawed is putting it lightly. He is a career criminal conman adulterer but hey there are some good things too jfc
Now my main concerns are twofold. When will the panic end and we can get back to "normal" and how will we respond to the next pandemic? We cannot go through this again.
Which experts were "no better than politicians"? And since when does expertise require being 100% right about things that are unknown? Aaron Rodgers is an expert QB and yet he threw 2 ints and fumbled 3x vs. SF. Bill Belichek is the most expert coach of all time, there's no guarantee he wins the SB next year or even makes the playoffs. Or that his draft picks won't be busts on occasion.
JMO but there has been a lot of good information out there, though to be sure even in the best of circumstances it's never going to be perfect and it's especially hard in an environment of misinformation. Go back 2 months when stay at home first started and the core of what Fauci said has been pretty accurate - including his caveats that the virus is moving target. The expert recommended actions we've all taken the past 2 months did dramatically bend the curve in most places. And if you look hard enough, you will even find experts from the both private sector and official positions, across the spectrum of credible media outlets (WSJ, Wapo, Times, etc), who were publicly raising alarms in January and February, even a few politicians on both sides though most were not.
If you want to see what things would look like with an anti-expert response keep an eye on Brazil where they literally fired their health official mid pandemic and had his replacement resign a few weeks later.
March 29 - Fauci Estimates That 100,000 To 200,000 Americans Could Die From The Coronavirus - ( New Window )
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With the NHL looking to transition to Phase 2 (small group workouts) as soon as next week, it's clear those voluntary sessions will be fairly restricted. Six players max in the team facility at a time and no coaching involvement for on-ice work.
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Chris Johnston @reporterchris
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Of note: Players and team staff will be given a COVID-19 nasal swab test two days before starting Phase 2 training, and then will be tested at least twice per week afterwards. They must also self-administer a temperature and symptom check every day.
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Chris Johnston
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Players from other NHL teams will be permitted access to team facilities in an area where they reside, subject to scheduling and staff availability.
As a result, North Ametican-based players do not have to rush back to their playing cities in order to participate in Phase 2.
dangerous communicable disease, and you have a big problem
In a pandemic the strengths of a free and affluent society work against it.
Also, the US is transparent of all testing results and deaths and updates this info daily while conducting the most tests in the world. Is it such a surprise that a large nation where all can travel freely anywhere they want and engage in many interactions through all levels of society would have so many cases? It really would be odd if we did not. This is a big country.
The early critical window to mitigate the damage, like was done in South Korea, was missed because the US didn't have a functioning test and to me it seems was under the ignorant impression there was no community spread in the USA.
That ship has sailed now. The virus is here in the USA and it is not going anywhere. The lock-down social distancing originally was save the healthcare system from overload and collapse. It seems now many think it is designed to remove all risk of the virus.
What is really needed is stone cold info on how this virus spreads. The role of children in its spread (big question that as far as I can tell no one knows, I have read they do drive spread and they dont. Talk about important to school opening decisions), what is its exact method of attack on the body, and so on.
I have read about how the use of ventilators early may have been a error, first it was a big problem of surfaces, now the CDC says surfaces are not high risk, the whole mask bullshit dont wear/must wear. This needs to stop and true scientific facts need to be nailed down. This hoopla over beaches, what is there is an minute chance of catching it at the beach outside? They all this energy debating beach closing is wasted.
GI Joe said knowing is half the battle, and there is still so much unknown. This has to change, medicine and vaccine development is important, but the critical questions about the virus need complete answers now. A vaccine may never come, no public heath decisions can be made with the idea of a vaccine in mind. Going forward these facts should be used to create health code measures to mitigate risk. MITIGATE, not remove.
The virus creates a damaging overload immune response. This is akin to the way the virus is impacting our society, the virus is dangerous, but an overactive response to it that does not take true scientific, geographic and demographic data into account may be far worse than the illness itself.
As far as the US being the worst, well the biggest errors to me were the CDC's broken test, not knowing their was community spread and not having enough or being able to produce enough PPE. The nation churned out thousands of planes, tanks, cars, bullets, bombs, and so on for WWII, the greatest manufacturing power in the history of the universe, cant even make fucking masks. Some of these issues pre-date the pandemic.
CDC is the LVP so far to me. Broken test, changing messaging, they are supposed to be the best. For the Super Bowl of public health, they have shit the bed royally.
The point is that some people are really good at their jobs. They are serious and smart and prepared and they take responsibility and they lead. And that is reflected in success. Leading the country through this pandemic is the job of the president. And by any and, I believe, every metric and standard this president has either failed or under performed.
This isn't Hollywood where magic happens.
This isn't Hollywood where magic happens.
Science sure, manufacturing I disagree, we do not produce in the USA. For many reasons. To not be able to obtain and build simple products is a problem. Same I have learned is true for many antibiotics and critical medicines.
This needs to be rectified. As far science i get it, but these answers are needed as fast as possible and the mask back and forth did not help the situation.
Also, I cant believe they put out a broken test.
given that over half of all decadents were nursing home cases, the death rate for non-nursing home residents is in the neighborhood of 0.1%.
a far cry from the 3.4% estimated by the WHO, which drove the initial panic and the broad lockdowns that followed.
CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. - ( New Window )
BM asked above what I would do differently, well, I would start with ending the fear mongering and tell people that we don’t need to be so afraid of this virus.
BM asked above what I would do differently, well, I would start with ending the fear mongering and tell people that we don’t need to be so afraid of this virus.
BM asked above what I would do differently, well, I would start with ending the fear mongering and tell people that we don’t need to be so afraid of this virus.
also, these numbers represent the infection fatality rate (chance of dying once you have already contracted the virus). once you couple the chance of contracting the virus in the first place (low), with the chance of dying from it, most people under age 65 have a higher chance of dying from almost anything else, including being struck by lightning
The masses aren’t going to be responsible about this, which is why we are still at home.
I’m not suggesting a specific course of action but I wish people would stop passing it off as only dangerous if you are old. That isn’t true.
Lightening is a freak of nature and car accidents are just that, accidents. Comparing them to a health crisis (for which there is not cure) is lazy and uninformative.
The masses aren’t going to be responsible about this, which is why we are still at home.
Our local homemade ice cream store opened back up 2 weeks ago, thank god as its amazing and we didnt know if he was ever coming back. He has it setup out the backdoor with milk crates marking 6ft and you can call in advance to pickup. Most people know the flavors. Most should just do that. It was pretty big gathering but people followed rules. No mask no service. Its like the soup nazi haha
So I’m just going to order a pint or two of what we like and just take it home to have. It’s the best ice cream in town and is fun to go with my daughter since it’s right next to the beach but fuck the general public, it ruined everything. 15/20 people in a line can’t follow rules, no shot the masses can either.
given that over half of all decadents were nursing home cases, the death rate for non-nursing home residents is in the neighborhood of 0.1%.
a far cry from the 3.4% estimated by the WHO, which drove the initial panic and the broad lockdowns that followed.
CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. - ( New Window )
Garbage in, garbage out. The CDC’s numbers have been noted for significantly undercounting deaths. Their count has been based on official death certificates, which leads to two problems. First, it can take up to 8 weeks for an official death certificate to be issued, so their data is significantly lagging. Second, they’re only counting cases where a Covid test was performed. With limited testing capacity, many suspected Covid death victims aren’t being tested.
Even if you assume they’re numbers are right, that’s 2.5x the seasonal flu death rate for a disease that is far more communicable. That still leads to 4 million hospitalizations and 500K deaths according to their projections.
The masses aren’t going to be responsible about this, which is why we are still at home.
People are so infuriating. So fucking selfish...
Look at the social distancing in the Ozarks... - ( New Window )
I’m cancelling my guys weekend (because a couple of my friends are assholes and think it’s all a joke and don’t respect the new rules) and I'm not visiting my sister and my nieces in DC. It’s a sacrifice this year and looking to the bright side I’ll save some money that I can put into the house. But I will be able to do those things next year, I wish more people realized this.
BM asked above what I would do differently, well, I would start with ending the fear mongering and tell people that we don’t need to be so afraid of this virus.
Not necessarily specific to your friend but anyone who is low risk could also have someone in their life with higher risk factors. In nyc especially it could be the old lady across the hall or a couple with a newborn. Living in fear is never a good thing it's all just balancing risk reward, and we'd all have a better chance of doing that if there was less intentional misinformation coming out (and clearer, consistent, info directly from health experts).
And that's even more important when there are updates to previous guidance. I know everyone loves to criticize the flip flop on masks but imo the surgeon general did a good job explaining why that guidance changed. Yes it would have been better that they got the correct info in the first place, but wouldn't we rather they admit when they are wrong than continue with the wrong advice?
Wife called the owner on it, and he came up with every excuse under the sun why they couldn't wear, didn't need to, and finished up with the authorities told him they were exempt.
since it was a local/rural joint, most of the customers were likely regulars, and half of them didn't bother with masks.
Of course, everywhere I go I see a large percentage of people with inappropriate masks and/or little idea how to wear them, or how to social distance.
People are the biggest problem, not gov't, at this point.
His posting is just an example of why we are all in this boat. The misinformation being spread isn’t just politics, it’s our very own too. I have no faith and society to do what’s necessary.
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doesn’t understand basic science OR economics.
His posting is just an example of why we are all in this boat. The misinformation being spread isn’t just politics, it’s our very own too. I have no faith and society to do what’s necessary.
I'm still in the boat of it's too early to call whether Memorial Day weekend boogaloos are a sign that we simply can't eliminate externalities on our own, or if it was a confluence of a holiday weekend and 2 months of isolation.
I do think that the next few weeks will be key: whether or not some of these bad behaviors not only persist, but lead to any cluster infections in areas that may not have seen them before.
My in laws have basically said they are tired of living in fear they hugged my kids yesterday for the first time in 3 months...
It is amazing people do not understand when to wear a mask and when not to..
Kids are now presenting with multi-organ failure diseases; the virus seems to now reside also in the heart and kidneys when presenting no significant respiratory issues, etc.
The fact is the "free market" really won't be in play, especially given the externalities involved. So, we have to be creative in getting people to self-limit; one would involve masks. Because conscious or not, people MAY reduce unnecessary behaviors with these.
Someone who was forced to travel across the ocean to work for free until they died was oppressed. Someone who was denied the right to vote was oppressed. Someone who was not allowed to enroll in a public school or drink from a fountain or ride the bus was oppressed. Someone who was beaten due to the color of their skin or their sexual orientation was oppressed. Someone who was sent to live in ghettos and then death camps was oppressed. Someone forced to be subservient because they are female is oppressed. Someone stopped by police for no good reason and then detained for no good reason was oppressed. You get the belabored point.
You were asked, not forced, to put on a mask to protect the very society you claim to love. Put on your fucking mask, stay the fuck inside as much as humanly possible, and act like a civil human being with respect for others when you are outside. Keep your distance.
It’s amazing to me how fucking selfish people are. I always knew we were inherently selfish but it really smacks you in the face when you go outside and are reminded of it repeatedly.
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just dont be an asshole when you are outside, you go somewhere and cant social distance put a mask on...
You don't, but it is still safer to everyone if you and they stay inside. Have I been inside everyday? No. But, I, personally, have limited my time outside almost entirely to accomplishing the task of getting food or supplies. Only in the last 2 weeks have I gone outside for any kind of leisure. I wear my mask at all times, even jogging, and run in the street to remove myself from pedestrians. If you can't do these things, then stay inside.
I am not getting into the wear a maak the second you go outside argument again..
I hope you are well and your family is as well..
It’s amazing to me how fucking selfish people are. I always knew we were inherently selfish but it really smacks you in the face when you go outside and are reminded of it repeatedly.
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In comment 14910376 nygiants16 said:
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just dont be an asshole when you are outside, you go somewhere and cant social distance put a mask on...
You don't, but it is still safer to everyone if you and they stay inside. Have I been inside everyday? No. But, I, personally, have limited my time outside almost entirely to accomplishing the task of getting food or supplies. Only in the last 2 weeks have I gone outside for any kind of leisure. I wear my mask at all times, even jogging, and run in the street to remove myself from pedestrians. If you can't do these things, then stay inside.
I am not getting into the wear a maak the second you go outside argument again..
I hope you are well and your family is as well..
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In comment 14910382 Matt M. said:
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In comment 14910376 nygiants16 said:
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just dont be an asshole when you are outside, you go somewhere and cant social distance put a mask on...
You don't, but it is still safer to everyone if you and they stay inside. Have I been inside everyday? No. But, I, personally, have limited my time outside almost entirely to accomplishing the task of getting food or supplies. Only in the last 2 weeks have I gone outside for any kind of leisure. I wear my mask at all times, even jogging, and run in the street to remove myself from pedestrians. If you can't do these things, then stay inside.
I am not getting into the wear a maak the second you go outside argument again..
I hope you are well and your family is as well..
You as well.
Mask? Wash hands frequently? Don’t shake hands? Yes! Of course and these things will retard the spread. I think we need to avoid large gatherings of more than 25 people so things like night clubs, churches and movie theaters. We need to reinforce the healthcare system. We need easy and accessible and free testing. We need smart opt in contact tracing.
We need to be sensible. But being sensible includes understanding that people will catch this virus. It can’t be avoided forever. We should absolutely protect the most vulnerable - especially any over 70 who already have other health issues.
Being sensible means understanding that getting this virus doesn’t mean you’re going to die. I had this virus. It made me sick for about two months. I’m better now. And if weren’t for the fact that I’m worried to death about the economy, I’d be fine now.
We to stop with the fear mongering and the stay at home until there’s a vaccine. It’s time to get back to life.
The fact is the "free market" really won't be in play, especially given the externalities involved. So, we have to be creative in getting people to self-limit; one would involve masks. Because conscious or not, people MAY reduce unnecessary behaviors with these.
This is a really good point. When (if) the protocols for each different business get implemented it will hopefully be positive reinforcement of how we can all mitigate risk.
My gym sent around a video of the new protocols whenever they are allowed to reopen and it's a lot more thorough than I expected, but it also all makes sense. Masks on whenever inside, smaller classes with specific stations for each person so no shared equipment, lining everyone up outside to enter one at a time, doing temp checks, and washing hands immediately, bleach wipes everywhere to use on all equipment and in between everything you do, etc.
Doing all that won't be convenient but it's certainly doable, I'd imagine it will reduce risk by several orders of magnitude, and at this point the extra few minutes of stuff to do is well worth it to get back to some normalcy (and increasing the chances of remaining open). I'm still holding out hope for some kind of outdoor day camp.
We to stop with the fear mongering and the stay at home until there’s a vaccine.
who has advocated this?
Mask? Wash hands frequently? Don’t shake hands? Yes! Of course and these things will retard the spread. I think we need to avoid large gatherings of more than 25 people so things like night clubs, churches and movie theaters. We need to reinforce the healthcare system. We need easy and accessible and free testing. We need smart opt in contact tracing.
We need to be sensible. But being sensible includes understanding that people will catch this virus. It can’t be avoided forever. We should absolutely protect the most vulnerable - especially any over 70 who already have other health issues.
Being sensible means understanding that getting this virus doesn’t mean you’re going to die. I had this virus. It made me sick for about two months. I’m better now. And if weren’t for the fact that I’m worried to death about the economy, I’d be fine now.
We to stop with the fear mongering and the stay at home until there’s a vaccine. It’s time to get back to life.
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We to stop with the fear mongering and the stay at home until there’s a vaccine.
who has advocated this?
ITs so silly. These people think people arent leaving their houses 24/7.
and i'm pretty sure you're an arrogant economist who thinks they know it all.
Japan was all over the headlines early with the ship and everything, and I recall them closing schools nationally early on.
Now, I haven't heard much except this recent article that they "beat" the virus. They beat it without harsher restrictions like NYC.
What I found interesting from the article was that there was not a lot of evidence of strong effective centralized action, but success locally on the ground with contact tracing and the like. Local public health action is of more importance.
But, I agree this question should be studied, and studied hard. This is an example of the type of info we need ln the virus' spread and as soon as possible.
Tokyo has a shit load of people packed together, NYC does too, many ride public transport packed togethern daily, like NYC, hub of international business and travel.
I am pretty sure Japan has an older population too.
They did better, and certainly not worse than NYC, without the big restrictions.
I think some may just be a little cooped up and there is a psychological component to this. For those in jobs where things have not changed much it not as big a inconvenience. For those struggling thinking what can I do....I feel for you and we all should. Tough to build a business, create opportunities for others and have your world turned upside down. Tough to work in other professions that require the economy to function.
There is a lot of resentment towards government workers and those sharing opinions on the networks.....and I can see that perspective.
Lastly, to those who gave their life in service to our country.....thank you. We honor you today and every day. To those who lost someone serving....all I can say is thank you as well and condolences to you.
you didn't ask a question. you made an arrogant and dismissive comment because i posted some CDC data points that you don't like.
here are a couple of things i understand.
i understand you think you're an authority on the topic and act like an asshole to those who don't fall in lock step with your assessment of things.
i also understand that you don't know shit about public health but act like you do.
Maybe I'm not the one who doesn't grasp public health. And I will continue to be dismissive of a dipshit who doesn't understand basic economics or science.
I'll continue to be amused by your vague references to a "free market", like it: (i) exists in healthcare or public health, or (ii) doesn't fail with massive externalities like a pandemic. I mean, you can feel free to play that game, and I'll have fun embarrasing you?
Part of that reason COULD be not related to the labor market (time it has taken some states to process the massive numbers of UI benefits). The May numbers are going to be bad, because of when the surveys are conducted (typically earlier in the month), and doesn't reflect more of the openings in most states.
What you will need to see in June is cotinued unemployment insurance claim decreases (probably just north of a million), along with continued improvement in testing numbers, cases, etc.
1. No large-scale second wave of infections, continued opening.
May: 19.8
June: 18.2
July: 11.5
August: 9.9
September: 8.5
October: 7.2
November: 7.2
December: 6.9
2. Second wave of infections, continued opening, no removal of mass gathering restrictions
May: 21.5
June: 24.3
July: 22.3
August: 17.2
September: 14.5
October: 13.8
November: 13.7
December: 11.8
Basically, any estimate beyond June is highly speculative.
Maybe I'm not the one who doesn't grasp public health. And I will continue to be dismissive of a dipshit who doesn't understand basic economics or science.
I'll continue to be amused by your vague references to a "free market", like it: (i) exists in healthcare or public health, or (ii) doesn't fail with massive externalities like a pandemic. I mean, you can feel free to play that game, and I'll have fun embarrasing you?
you're an arrogant blowhard who hasn't cited one instance of how i've misunderstood basic science or economics other than referencing a link to data i posted that presented by the swiss policy research group. is that it? or was there something else? if so, what was it?
also: there not been one instance in this thread where i've defended a "free market" approach to public health or advocated for it to "fix" things.
you're an academic economist, right? i really love your posts speculating about what the unemployment rate will be 3 months from now, don't get me wrong. fascinating.
but when you make unsourced claims about public health directives like, "the behavioral reason for mask-wearing is not somuch because masks work, but because masks symbolically remind people that there is a novel virus afoot and its a creative way to get people to self-limit because they'd forget otherwise" it sounds as if you're pulling things out of your ass.
here's an alternative possibility you've maybe not considered: that the reason for flip-flopping on mask wearing is because the public health response has been confused, schizoid, haphazard?
And it may behoove you to actually investigate behavioral economics; these solutions are simply another form of Pigovian taxes (albeit in a non-monetary form) that are basic reading in any economic fundamentals class. You can start with Frank, "Behavioral Economics and Health Economics", which is a nice summary of the extension of several of these ideas to the health sphere.
So yeah, my assertion that you have no concept of basic economics has been reinforced.
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Has anyone compared nyc vs Tokyo in terms of this virus?
Japan was all over the headlines early with the ship and everything, and I recall them closing schools nationally early on.
Now, I haven't heard much except this recent article that they "beat" the virus. They beat it without harsher restrictions like NYC.
What I found interesting from the article was that there was not a lot of evidence of strong effective centralized action, but success locally on the ground with contact tracing and the like. Local public health action is of more importance.
But, I agree this question should be studied, and studied hard. This is an example of the type of info we need ln the virus' spread and as soon as possible.
Tokyo has a shit load of people packed together, NYC does too, many ride public transport packed togethern daily, like NYC, hub of international business and travel.
I am pretty sure Japan has an older population too.
They did better, and certainly not worse than NYC, without the big restrictions.
I have to wonder whether it's simply a matter of a healthier overall population.
And proud as shit to be an insufferable asshole because, for the most part, I know I'm correct in a lot of what I say. I wouldn't say it otherwise. Unlike, you know, an Op Ed from "The Blaze"...
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In comment 14910410 madhatter9382 said:
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Has anyone compared nyc vs Tokyo in terms of this virus?
Japan was all over the headlines early with the ship and everything, and I recall them closing schools nationally early on.
Now, I haven't heard much except this recent article that they "beat" the virus. They beat it without harsher restrictions like NYC.
What I found interesting from the article was that there was not a lot of evidence of strong effective centralized action, but success locally on the ground with contact tracing and the like. Local public health action is of more importance.
But, I agree this question should be studied, and studied hard. This is an example of the type of info we need ln the virus' spread and as soon as possible.
Tokyo has a shit load of people packed together, NYC does too, many ride public transport packed togethern daily, like NYC, hub of international business and travel.
I am pretty sure Japan has an older population too.
They did better, and certainly not worse than NYC, without the big restrictions.
I have to wonder whether it's simply a matter of a healthier overall population.
Could be, they also have a culture that accepts mask wearing,that was mentioned in the article.
Still, it is an interesting comparison would be good to know more.
And proud as shit to be an insufferable asshole because, for the most part, I know I'm correct in a lot of what I say. I wouldn't say it otherwise. Unlike, you know, an Op Ed from "The Blaze"...
all the blaze article was referenced for was the link to CDC data on infection fatality rate, that jive with estimates from a stanford university prof of medicine.
sure the CDC and other organizations and researchers are pushing things out so fast things will look different in 5 years, or even three months from now as counts are revised.
but as the picture becomes clearer 3 months in, it is apparent this is certainly worse than seasonal flu, as would be expected with a novel virus, but far less fatal than the earlier WHO estimates, imperial college of london estimates, the 1918 flu, etc. also NYC is in many ways an extreme outlier relative to the rest of the country and most of the rest of the world.
the response was botched from the top down beginning in jan-feb with deny deny missing the chance at localized contain, then pivoting to overly broad panic and lockdown, then cutting all americans a check even though some 70% are still working, to now, where citizens are passively and actively rebelling because the response has been haphazard and incoherent.
a ban on mass gatherings, including churches, and figuring out nursing homes, prisons, elderly and immunocompromised should be the focus now.
things like not allowing people to lay on towels alone at the beach seem wrong-headed.
fauci said in february masking in healthy and asymptomatic individuals was unnecessary and could even lead to other problems as people touch their face more, or do not regularly wash the mask, and so forth. by march things had shifted, and he was promoting the agenda.
at any rate, it does not seem straightforward that the mixed-messaging on masking from fauci, birx, the CDC and the WHO is by design. but i mean, i'm no health economist.
you didn't observe a shift from doing nothing through march, to then "oh shit, this is bad, shut everything down"?
there was a panicked response after denying the problem for months.
That doesn't absolve them of earlier (probably incorrect) information, but as we learned that adoption of policies may not be wholly effective, and that we as a country will not practice moral suasion, there is evidence that behavioral "taxes" can be effective.
With a novel virus, guess what: health policy is going to be driven by trial and error. Quite a bit of error. That's actually how a lot of learning in medicine has happened.
Unemployment; whatever the numbers say no way we are under 10% by years end imo. If that second wave hits the big companies will be soon to follow. Being a election year it will probably look pretty under the circumstances....but it will be a false representation imo.
some form of stimulus? sure. personally, i did not need a check. a lot of people didn't.
Unemployment; whatever the numbers say no way we are under 10% by years end imo. If that second wave hits the big companies will be soon to follow. Being a election year it will probably look pretty under the circumstances....but it will be a false representation imo.
I hate to break it to you, but we ceded leadership already...
Now, if this is accurate, why is China so superior to the USA in this regard. This means all of NYC could be tested in two weeks.
Maybe it is bullshit? I don't know.
They did this in response to a new cluster of cases in Wuhan. The method is called pool testing, they swab ten people's cheeks, put it in a pool sample, and if it is all negative, all good. If there are positives, those people are summoned for retest to confirm. I learned the pool testing method was developed by the United States of American during World War II. GI's pissed in cups to pool test for syphilis. Pool testing works if the vast majority of tests are negative. US invented this type of mass testing 70 plus years ago, used to have ingenuity here I guess.
Just though this was interesting, because if it is it is very impressive.
Once it his mid-March how else was this supposed to play out? We were shutting down either by government order our on our own (which would have been chaos), IMO.
Liquidity, faith in restrictive economic policies, fighting against the paradox of thrift are but a small sampling of other goals of fiscal stimulus beyond the common notions...
And given the well-known legislative lag for any fiscal policy (and the inability to target through monetary policy), what do people expect? Probably a policy that overshoots, when undershooting would be incredibly disastrous.
About 70% of American households at the end of 2019 had <$1,000 saved, while 45% had nothing. There's a decently large argument about the effectiveness of the 2001, 2008, and 2009 fiscal stimuli (Feldstein argued no impact; other studies have found impacts on durable goods, little on non-durable goods).
Shapiro and Slemrod found that the average household only spent about 30-40 percent, and used the rest for savings or debt repayment. It's still a shot in the arm, but less than what was wanted.
Once it his mid-March how else was this supposed to play out? We were shutting down either by government order our on our own (which would have been chaos), IMO.
this is really the point. the lack of any focused, coherent response in jan-feb to better pursue contain in WA state and no cal, etc., is what led to the mess that began mid march. the CDC botched testing for WEEKS, blew off WHO assistance, while the white house continued denial and minimization, then abdicated much of its responsibility, deferring to the states, while now we get to watch POTUS exploit social divisions over lockdown fatigue, and the media admonish adult humans for breathing near or on each other at a missouri lake.
a shitshow all around it seems to me, but i'm no health economist (but i did used to date one- seriously).
Johnson, D., N. Souleles and J. Parker, "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001" American Economic Review, Vol 96 No 5, (December 2006) 1589-1610.
Both support your assertion.
Some policies have been effective (bans on mass gatherings, shelter-in-place), some have been less effective (closing of initial businesses, like bars), some have mixed effectiveness (so likely ineffective; like closing ALL non-essential business).
Again, people look at the current outcomes and use it as some justification that they didn't work. Of course, could it be that these policies cut the negative outcomes in half? By more? Effective policies get shit on because they were effective. And there's some limited research that the policies have been effective.
the "panicked response" history rewriters always forget (and then ignore responding to) the reality that lots of things happened before any government action was taken. The NBA cancelled games indefinitely in the middle of the 2nd week of march right after it started going through the Jazz lockerroom, which was the same week the market went off a cliff as images were coming in from Italy on total lockdown - and that's what slammed everything to a halt. Not any panicked intervening public policy or false media narrative. Private industry realized it was here and they had to act on their own, and then States followed suit with emergency orders because they just couldn't wait on Fed Gov any longer.
Up until the 2nd week of March life here was mostly continuing as usual. And that is even after the first community spread outbreak in Washington mid-Feb, where there wasn't much national panic, and the dawning realization that it was spreading in the tri-state in early March (remember the lawyer on the MTA?).
Prior to that 2nd week in March there was more national confusion than national panic because the testing was such a mess, the Fed gov was saying something different than experts, and we were seeing countries around the world react far differently than we were (the "flu" tweet was on monday march 9th, the same day the dow crashed 2000 pts).
I remember thinking, 'Wow. This shit got real.'
the "panicked response" history rewriters always forget (and then ignore responding to) the reality that lots of things happened before any government action was taken. The NBA cancelled games indefinitely in the middle of the 2nd week of march right after it started going through the Jazz lockerroom, which was the same week the market went off a cliff as images were coming in from Italy on total lockdown - and that's what slammed everything to a halt. Not any panicked intervening public policy or false media narrative. Private industry realized it was here and they had to act on their own, and then States followed suit with emergency orders because they just couldn't wait on Fed Gov any longer.
Up until the 2nd week of March life here was mostly continuing as usual. And that is even after the first community spread outbreak in Washington mid-Feb, where there wasn't much national panic, and the dawning realization that it was spreading in the tri-state in early March (remember the lawyer on the MTA?).
Prior to that 2nd week in March there was more national confusion than national panic because the testing was such a mess, the Fed gov was saying something different than experts, and we were seeing countries around the world react far differently than we were (the "flu" tweet was on monday march 9th, the same day the dow crashed 2000 pts).
it was an emergency response because the fed had a default policy of deny all winter, while its CDC was botching testing and localized contain. trump's CDC director has been a bad joke. the previous CDC director resigned in scandal. the fish stinks from the head, sure, but the CDCs reputation will suffer lasting damage over this.
i don't see how anyone can honestly view this as anything but a total failure of leadership.
The toll in underserved areas is going to be massive.
Anyway, I got the antibody test and it came back negative. So I asked my doctor (who was the one who saw me at the time when he suggested I go in isolation) if he was surprised and that means I didn't have it. And he said to me they are getting lots of negatives back, and he was surprised by mine since I had more or less most of the symptoms (except didn't really have the cough). What he said to me was that no antibodies might mean I didn't have the coronavirus, but he's been skeptical of the results because over time the antibody prevelance drops and it would go into the cell memory and not get picked up on the test. But he also said that they are seeing patients who tested positive for Covid but didn't have antibodies and what they believe is that the immune system fights off the virus using other parts, including antibodies that fought other/similar coronaviruses in the past and beat it, even if doesn't produce a specific "antibody" for it. Long way of saying, even with the test, I still don't know for sure if I had it or not. I wish I had a positive just to wrap it up, but science is tricky. Who knew?
Anyway, I got the antibody test and it came back negative. So I asked my doctor (who was the one who saw me at the time when he suggested I go in isolation) if he was surprised and that means I didn't have it. And he said to me they are getting lots of negatives back, and he was surprised by mine since I had more or less most of the symptoms (except didn't really have the cough). What he said to me was that no antibodies might mean I didn't have the coronavirus, but he's been skeptical of the results because over time the antibody prevelance drops and it would go into the cell memory and not get picked up on the test. But he also said that they are seeing patients who tested positive for Covid but didn't have antibodies and what they believe is that the immune system fights off the virus using other parts, including antibodies that fought other/similar coronaviruses in the past and beat it, even if doesn't produce a specific "antibody" for it. Long way of saying, even with the test, I still don't know for sure if I had it or not. I wish I had a positive just to wrap it up, but science is tricky. Who knew?
Oof, that would suck. My sister had antibodies from what she has now learned was COVID back in February.
If true, doesn't that mean that pretty invasive contact tracing is one of the only policies to really try to limit further spread by opening up?
I think we probably knew of the threat. Like most things there was a big factor in play...money or better stated the economy. Not easy to just shut things down imo. I tend to think the gov't is smarter than some realize.....even though though they may not show it.
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So Bill, I wanted to run this by you and get your thoughts since you warned me a bit on this. I took a blood test last week that was sent to the lab at Quest for results on antibodies. I was sick back in late Feb to mid March, had a fever, run down, head ache, runs, no appetite, etc. I took a flu test that was negative (and had the flu shot back in October).
Anyway, I got the antibody test and it came back negative. So I asked my doctor (who was the one who saw me at the time when he suggested I go in isolation) if he was surprised and that means I didn't have it. And he said to me they are getting lots of negatives back, and he was surprised by mine since I had more or less most of the symptoms (except didn't really have the cough). What he said to me was that no antibodies might mean I didn't have the coronavirus, but he's been skeptical of the results because over time the antibody prevelance drops and it would go into the cell memory and not get picked up on the test. But he also said that they are seeing patients who tested positive for Covid but didn't have antibodies and what they believe is that the immune system fights off the virus using other parts, including antibodies that fought other/similar coronaviruses in the past and beat it, even if doesn't produce a specific "antibody" for it. Long way of saying, even with the test, I still don't know for sure if I had it or not. I wish I had a positive just to wrap it up, but science is tricky. Who knew?
Oof, that would suck. My sister had antibodies from what she has now learned was COVID back in February.
If true, doesn't that mean that pretty invasive contact tracing is one of the only policies to really try to limit further spread by opening up?
How long do antibodies last?
I think we probably knew of the threat. Like most things there was a big factor in play...money or better stated the economy. Not easy to just shut things down imo. I tend to think the gov't is smarter than some realize.....even though though they may not show it.
you think the government was smarter than we know, because they knew about the seriousness of the virus, and opted not to do anything because of concern for the economy, or spooking the markets?
if that's the case, and i don't deny that it is, partly, i am not sure 'smart' is the word i would use to describe that course of action.
at any rate, the CDC repeatedly botching testing during the crucial jan-feb period is another story altogether.
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when seen the Chinese citizens in China in the moon suits....I knew something was up. I think this was late February.
I think we probably knew of the threat. Like most things there was a big factor in play...money or better stated the economy. Not easy to just shut things down imo. I tend to think the gov't is smarter than some realize.....even though though they may not show it.
you think the government was smarter than we know, because they knew about the seriousness of the virus, and opted not to do anything because of concern for the economy, or spooking the markets?
if that's the case, and i don't deny that it is, partly, i am not sure 'smart' is the word i would use to describe that course of action.
at any rate, the CDC repeatedly botching testing during the crucial jan-feb period is another story altogether.
Japan...I am not the best with forums so excuse some of the words as definitive. Yes I do believe that the gov't probably had a strong idea of the situation.....and was not prepared how to proceed. This was from years of not preparing....then it was economy versus the virus. Not a easy solution to that imv.
I agree with Rocco in his earlier posts (after the fact) that were deleted.....he has been a great poster on this topic and we should be thankful to have him.
How long do antibodies last?
It varies by disease. For measles, it’s lifetime. For others, they fade over a period time. SARS-CoV-2 is too new to know for sure. With some other coronaviruses that have been studied, antibody levels faded over 2-3 years.
Even once the antibodies fade off, you may still have some protection. Your immune system has a memory capacity so with many diseases it can start producing antibodies again more quickly than it does upon first infection. You may still get infected, but it would be milder and recovery would be faster.
But the bottom line is we won’t know for many years what the antibody duration or immune memory is for SARS-CoV-2.
I remember thinking, 'Wow. This shit got real.'
Yeah it was a surreal week. By that point there'd been probably 4-6 weeks of threads on BBI, which truthfully is where I first started paying real attention to this, and looking back it's like we'd gone through all the stages of grief - denial, anger (mostly towards rocco/mcl lol), bargaining ("we didn't do this for swine flu!!!"), and then ultimately acceptance. We probably need a 6th stage for acceptance but reopen anyway. Or maybe "acceptance, but" for short.
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How long do antibodies last?
It varies by disease. For measles, it’s lifetime. For others, they fade over a period time. SARS-CoV-2 is too new to know for sure. With some other coronaviruses that have been studied, antibody levels faded over 2-3 years.
Even once the antibodies fade off, you may still have some protection. Your immune system has a memory capacity so with many diseases it can start producing antibodies again more quickly than it does upon first infection. You may still get infected, but it would be milder and recovery would be faster.
But the bottom line is we won’t know for many years what the antibody duration or immune memory is for SARS-CoV-2.
There are a few studies going on to measure the duration of antibodies for COVID-19. I can say that we’ve seen people about 40 days post symptom onset and they still have antibodies. But the amounts people make seem to vary a lot and from what I have seen about 2-3% test consistently negative (could be the test sensitivity though). I have seen any data further out than that but we are looking ourselves.
For SARS I think it was about a year. I think for the common corona viruses it’s quicker than what Ji. Says (I could be wrong) but they come back up fast with reexposure (including to CoV-2). That could say something about the biology of CoV-2 ( both good and scary).
Caveats are that nobody knows what it means to be antibody positive other than you’ve been exposed. Nobody knows yet how much Ab is needed for protection or even if Ab plays a big role at all. As you physician alluded, there are other mechanisms. Generally for viruses Abs are not even the major way you fight off an infection. So, even if you were Ab negative you could still be protected.
I do think though, that if you are Ab negative, you likely were not exposed. Not definitely but likely.
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How long do antibodies last?
It varies by disease. For measles, it’s lifetime. For others, they fade over a period time. SARS-CoV-2 is too new to know for sure. With some other coronaviruses that have been studied, antibody levels faded over 2-3 years.
Even once the antibodies fade off, you may still have some protection. Your immune system has a memory capacity so with many diseases it can start producing antibodies again more quickly than it does upon first infection. You may still get infected, but it would be milder and recovery would be faster.
But the bottom line is we won’t know for many years what the antibody duration or immune memory is for SARS-CoV-2.
I wouldn’t say lifetime for measles. Especially if you’re in the age bracket that only got a single immunization. Many years, but not a lifetime. In the fall outbreak in NY they started recommending boosters especially for older people and healthcare workers.
Thanks Bill, I knew you were the right person to ask. And I did forget to mention that he said something about the sensitivity might not be picking up antibodies properly and throwing a negative test. He did say he wasn't necessarily surprised at how many negatives have come back since everyone was convinced they had it when they were sick this winter and it turns out they didn't. But a few cases, mine included, he was surprised since he said I would have guessed that I did have it (particularly because I was flu negative). Oh well, I guess I'll just wait out the vaccine like everyone else.
Absolutely. We learn something new everyday. My lab did pretty much all of the Zika testing in NY a few years ago...about 20000 tests over a couple years. We blew through that number in a couple months with COVID.
But there is still so much we don’t know. Like I said, how long do Abs last and what is the meaning of protection.
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Since I’m reading here randomly and infrequently.
Thanks Bill, I knew you were the right person to ask. And I did forget to mention that he said something about the sensitivity might not be picking up antibodies properly and throwing a negative test. He did say he wasn't necessarily surprised at how many negatives have come back since everyone was convinced they had it when they were sick this winter and it turns out they didn't. But a few cases, mine included, he was surprised since he said I would have guessed that I did have it (particularly because I was flu negative). Oh well, I guess I'll just wait out the vaccine like everyone else.
Same here. I was also sick around the same time. It took a month to get my breathing and voice back. Turned out to be the flu (and I had a shot) that turned on my asthma. It was early in the COVID days so it through everyone into a tizzy since I had interacted with all the people who were doing the testing for NYS. They were afraid the whole place would get shut down. So weird to have someone say to you”I’ve got great news, you’ve got the flu”.
As I mentioned previously, there is a variety in testing. Quest should be fine although I am not sure what test they use. There is a sensitivity issue Ann’s there is also a question of what protein the test is measuring. There are a few that different tests use and they can give slightly different results in some people, including a false negative, since people make different immune responses from each other.
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is this the craziest thing you've been involved in?
Absolutely. We learn something new everyday. My lab did pretty much all of the Zika testing in NY a few years ago...about 20000 tests over a couple years. We blew through that number in a couple months with COVID.
But there is still so much we don’t know. Like I said, how long do Abs last and what is the meaning of protection.
Crazy. Stay safe and sane.
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some other uninformed bullshit like that.
Maybe I'm not the one who doesn't grasp public health. And I will continue to be dismissive of a dipshit who doesn't understand basic economics or science.
I'll continue to be amused by your vague references to a "free market", like it: (i) exists in healthcare or public health, or (ii) doesn't fail with massive externalities like a pandemic. I mean, you can feel free to play that game, and I'll have fun embarrasing you?
you're an arrogant blowhard who hasn't cited one instance of how i've misunderstood basic science or economics other than referencing a link to data i posted that presented by the swiss policy research group. is that it? or was there something else? if so, what was it?
also: there not been one instance in this thread where i've defended a "free market" approach to public health or advocated for it to "fix" things.
you're an academic economist, right? i really love your posts speculating about what the unemployment rate will be 3 months from now, don't get me wrong. fascinating.
but when you make unsourced claims about public health directives like, "the behavioral reason for mask-wearing is not somuch because masks work, but because masks symbolically remind people that there is a novel virus afoot and its a creative way to get people to self-limit because they'd forget otherwise" it sounds as if you're pulling things out of your ass.
here's an alternative possibility you've maybe not considered: that the reason for flip-flopping on mask wearing is because the public health response has been confused, schizoid, haphazard?
Right, but, thank you for your service. What a pathetic joke. Tax payers *give* the airlines, private for profit businesses, $25 billion. But the National Guard? Yeah...
Now, maybe it is propaganda as some have stated, the WSJ article from yesterday said 9 million, this CNN article states 6.5 million and states source is their state media.
That said even if it is 3.25 million in ten days, half of the low estimate, that is quite an accomplishment.
Is it not possible to do this say, in NYC, privacy concerns, logistics,cost, test accuracy, what is the hold up? They used a pool testing method, could this be used here, say for school openings? Pool test staff and see if there is COVID and take localized action?
I am just speculating and the farthest thing from an expert, but if the China could accurately do this, I would like to be able to do so in the US in a useful way.
Or is that we cant do it? The USA is inferior.
Link - ( New Window )
Now, maybe it is propaganda as some have stated, the WSJ article from yesterday said 9 million, this CNN article states 6.5 million and states source is their state media.
That said even if it is 3.25 million in ten days, half of the low estimate, that is quite an accomplishment.
Is it not possible to do this say, in NYC, privacy concerns, logistics,cost, test accuracy, what is the hold up? They used a pool testing method, could this be used here, say for school openings? Pool test staff and see if there is COVID and take localized action?
I am just speculating and the farthest thing from an expert, but if the China could accurately do this, I would like to be able to do so in the US in a useful way.
Or is that we cant do it? The USA is inferior. Link - ( New Window )
I would like to report that I tested 11 trillionty people in my house this weekend. All of the tests were accurate and every one was negative.
Hello
I think you have me mixed up with another poster. I don't recall saying anything about Brazil
Still, pool testing seems like a way to screen larger groups. Maybe for schools, business, other institutions.
Still, pool testing seems like a way to screen larger groups. Maybe for schools, business, other institutions.
No disagreement here. I am not informed enough to really weigh in on testing / testing methods.
I was just playfully pointing out why it might feel like some haven't engaged with what you shared.
1) This method doesn’t work with some pathogens, which can become too dilute or become damaged when pooled together.
2) It’s only an efficient method if the infection rate is low. Every time there’s a positive result, you have to retest every sample individually in that group. When that happens with too many pool samples, you end up using more resources and time that if you had tested individually to begin with.
1. Cuts against the weather effect theories we've seen and indicates there's still outbreak risk in warm weather.
2. They are in a similar, albeit seemingly even crazier, political battle between governors/health officials who have been trying to implement social distancing orders for the past 2 months and a president who wants to open everything up (and who has replaced 2 health ministers in the last month because they disagreed with him).
Linked below is an article from today that recaps most of what's going on in Brazil. At the moment they have the 2nd most cases behind us (almost 400k) and 23k dead, however the IHME projection model updated their outlook on Brazil yesterday to raise the expected deaths by August to 125k, peaking in mid-July. That projection would have them pass us shortly after August in total deaths despite having more than 100m fewer people in the country...
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-ihme-projection-sees-covid-19-deaths-brazil-more-125000
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-response-sp/special-report-bolsonaro-brought-in-his-generals-to-fight-coronavirus-brazil-is-losing-the-battle-idUSKBN2321DU - ( New Window )
I got mine at CityMD (I'm in NYC) and they didn't charge a copay or fee. I have United Healthcare as an insurance.
1. Cuts against the weather effect theories we've seen and indicates there's still outbreak risk in warm weather.
2. They are in a similar, albeit seemingly even crazier, political battle between governors/health officials who have been trying to implement social distancing orders for the past 2 months and a president who wants to open everything up (and who has replaced 2 health ministers in the last month because they disagreed with him).
Linked below is an article from today that recaps most of what's going on in Brazil. At the moment they have the 2nd most cases behind us (almost 400k) and 23k dead, however the IHME projection model updated their outlook on Brazil yesterday to raise the expected deaths by August to 125k, peaking in mid-July. That projection would have them pass us shortly after August in total deaths despite having more than 100m fewer people in the country...
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-ihme-projection-sees-covid-19-deaths-brazil-more-125000 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-response-sp/special-report-bolsonaro-brought-in-his-generals-to-fight-coronavirus-brazil-is-losing-the-battle-idUSKBN2321DU - ( New Window )
I haven't mentioned it, but Brazil's outbreak will have a dire impact on the coffee harvest and the overall crop. Didn't seem all that important to focus on a commodity while people die. But coffee might well be the next toilet paper hoarding as supplies diminish.
Like Coffee? - Get it while you can - ( New Window )
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but is there a recommended route to get antibody tested? Seems like going through Quest hits you with a $120 per person test which sucks when you factor in an entire family. I haven't checked with HR yet but is anything covered with even decent healthcare?
I got mine at CityMD (I'm in NYC) and they didn't charge a copay or fee. I have United Healthcare as an insurance.
COVID or antibody test? did you need a doctors note for it to be covered?
1) This method doesn’t work with some pathogens, which can become too dilute or become damaged when pooled together.
2) It’s only an efficient method if the infection rate is low. Every time there’s a positive result, you have to retest every sample individually in that group. When that happens with too many pool samples, you end up using more resources and time that if you had tested individually to begin with.
I know that up in Saratoga they were doing that. I think that number in the pool was 3 and they wanted to go up to 32, and that was discouraged. I don't know where they settled. We tested out pools of 5 for antibodies and it works fine. We don't do it though because we got caught up in using the sera for other things, plus we handled the numbers easily.
New Yorkers can sign up for the tests by going to nyc.gov/antibodysurvey or calling (888)-279-0967.
Etsy. Lots of crafty people making them.
I'd look for a cotton one with chiffon or silk sandwiched in between. They did a study recently that said that 600 thread count cotton and two layers of chiffon or silk is almost as good as an N95 mask. The caveat is that it needs to fit well so there are no gaps.
Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Without actually seeing the report, I don't know what measures he's looking at or using (but probably includes GDP and the stock market).
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities. But I just don't see it. About 75-percent of the newly unemployed have shown up for continuing claims, which is 16-percent of the labor force. The most recent unemployment numbers suggested that around 6 million Americans became discouraged workers.
Median wage growth has hovered at <4% per year, well below the historical norm.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=50&eid=4773#snid=4779
May data will really reveal how long this recession will take hold. If his theories are correct, expect to see probably an uptick in revolving debt (rather than the decreases), as well as some sizable surges in m-o-m spending patterns.
Jim, you can ask Montana how he likes his. His were with the filter pocket and filter. I also do a simple double-layered with no filter pocket. Giants material, of course.
https://www.mission.com/collections/cooling-neck-gaiter-masks - ( New Window )
I think this is from Furman and saw something similar in Politico this morning. His argument is more that we saw so much economic devastation so far that the percentage increases in Q3 relative to Q2 will be "record-breaking". And for once, he'll be factually correct. Basically, it makes a good "political" story when you can make ads showing 10%+ GDP growth (Q over Q).
So, yes, if you're looking at quarter-over-quarter, there is a decent chance you could see growth that will blow previous years out of the water. But that's not really what we should care about.
So, replacing half of the GDP lost between Q1 and Q2 2020 using the lowest predictions would be 6.8% GDP growth. Haven't seen that since the 1980's.
But that's...disingenuous. Exiting a recession is not "good" economic data. Yikes.
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In comment 14910767 UConn4523 said:
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but is there a recommended route to get antibody tested? Seems like going through Quest hits you with a $120 per person test which sucks when you factor in an entire family. I haven't checked with HR yet but is anything covered with even decent healthcare?
I got mine at CityMD (I'm in NYC) and they didn't charge a copay or fee. I have United Healthcare as an insurance.
COVID or antibody test? did you need a doctors note for it to be covered?
My gf and I just did the antibody test, no note needed. My roommate went to get an antibody test too and they asked him while he was there if he wanted the COVID test as well so he took it. They didn't charge him either or request a doctors note
So, replacing half of the GDP lost between Q1 and Q2 2020 using the lowest predictions would be 6.8% GDP growth. Haven't seen that since the 1980's.
But that's...disingenuous. Exiting a recession is not "good" economic data. Yikes.
His point wasn't that it was good economic data, but that it would make a good political argument. As in, we weathered the COVID storm and now the economy is roaring back with XX% growth and a XX% reduction in unemployment.
Basically, many voters are morons and might buy the onslaught of (technically true) political ads highlighting economic recovery from the bottom, even if we're still only 25% back to where we were pre-Covid.
I get the whole voters are morons thing, but he wasn't speaking to misinformed voters when he made that statement.
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“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,"
I get the whole voters are morons thing, but he wasn't speaking to misinformed voters when he made that statement.
Exactly. He's informing Dem strategists for the Fall
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“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,"
I get the whole voters are morons thing, but he wasn't speaking to misinformed voters when he made that statement.
Exactly. He's informing Dem strategists for the Fall
If that doesn't speak volumes to the state of politicians in our country.
“Surrounding states are also seeing death counts several times greater than normal: * Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384) * Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782) * Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611) * Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820) * Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451) * West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)”
I appreciate that this thread has continued through the pandemic. It helps me cut through the bullshit.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm - ( New Window )
You can find the underlying dataset here:
https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
So, it's always had issues where the crude rates are that: crude. Differences in collection methods, differences in what constitutes the underlying cause of death, etc.
Unfortunately, these issues (which don't negate the absolute value of up-to-date mortality data at granular levels) are being exposed by people who don't understand how hard health data collection actually is.
Excess deaths have some strengths and weaknesses. They are a decent way of calibrating death data during normal periods of time. But we don't really have a good idea how well they will calibrate to the underlying data during a pandemic.
For instance, during recessions, mortality actually FALLS, except for suicides. So, excess deaths SHOULD be lower, which could actually increase COVID deaths.
It's the same fight people in the health sphere fight all the time: the data are not perfect, but we shouldn't throw them out because of that.
Japan ends emergency. No lockdown, 850 deaths - ( New Window )
1. Cuts against the weather effect theories we've seen and indicates there's still outbreak risk in warm weather.
2. They are in a similar, albeit seemingly even crazier, political battle between governors/health officials who have been trying to implement social distancing orders for the past 2 months and a president who wants to open everything up (and who has replaced 2 health ministers in the last month because they disagreed with him).
Linked below is an article from today that recaps most of what's going on in Brazil. At the moment they have the 2nd most cases behind us (almost 400k) and 23k dead, however the IHME projection model updated their outlook on Brazil yesterday to raise the expected deaths by August to 125k, peaking in mid-July. That projection would have them pass us shortly after August in total deaths despite having more than 100m fewer people in the country...
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-ihme-projection-sees-covid-19-deaths-brazil-more-125000 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-response-sp/special-report-bolsonaro-brought-in-his-generals-to-fight-coronavirus-brazil-is-losing-the-battle-idUSKBN2321DU - ( New Window )
Maybe i'm just imagining it but even a week ago, it felt very different than it does now.
Maybe i'm just imagining it but even a week ago, it felt very different than it does now.
i said thr same thing yesterday, i went golfing yesterday, there were a couple of people with masks but for the most part it felt normal..
BBQ at my in laws house on sunday, my father in law said f it and hugged my daughters for the first time in 3 months..
Thing i cant stand is my 2 year old askong can i touch you before she gives a hug
No matter what they announce in CT I'm staying home for the most part. Daycare has been open the whole time but we are still keeping her home and reassessing next month, probably around that June 20 date for phase 2 in CT (if it stays).
No matter what they announce in CT I'm staying home for the most part. Daycare has been open the whole time but we are still keeping her home and reassessing next month, probably around that June 20 date for phase 2 in CT (if it stays).
yeah my kids dance studio is doing outside classes my wife is still a little apprehensive..
you want to feel like things are still bad go to the food store, i am at BJs and people still with 2 carts buying everything
So we have been collectively making a lot of progress this month, like everything the polarized environment just creates this false outrage that there's anyone out there who wants to stay locked down until there's a vaccine or lock down states for political purposes, as was alleged yesterday.
Misinformation from the top down has been our greatest failure in the last 5 months and continues to be the greatest threat if people don't take necessary precautions to maintain the progress that's been made to this point. Masks, protocols, avoiding high risk environments etc.
yeah my kids dance studio is doing outside classes my wife is still a little apprehensive..
you want to feel like things are still bad go to the food store, i am at BJs and people still with 2 carts buying everything
That could be a good thing. If you can afford it (monetarily and have the space), it makes sense to shop for 1-2 weeks of food/supplies at a time and minimize trips.
Japan ends emergency. No lockdown, 850 deaths - ( New Window )
Amazing what can happen it you:
1) Have a robust public health system.
2) Have leadership with consistent messaging.
3) Have a population who will follow directives to distance, wear masks, etc without finding it a personal affront.
next time you do target see if they have the drive up option, you text them when your on your eay then when you get there and they bring it right to you outside, they put it in the trunk and you leave..
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... interesting, no?
Japan ends emergency. No lockdown, 850 deaths - ( New Window )
Amazing what can happen it you:
1) Have a robust public health system.
2) Have leadership with consistent messaging.
3) Have a population who will follow directives to distance, wear masks, etc without finding it a personal affront.
4) A vast number of the populace that isn't obese and/or has other comorbid conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, etc. I read another interesting stat in Forbes today. 47% of deaths in the US came from nursing homes and assisted living facilities...which account for .62% of the US population.
I believe we have a robust health system in the US. I believe, also, we have a nation of people who live extremely unhealthy lifestyles that require care to facilitate those unhealthy lifestyles, which would strain any system. Just my .02
But i've always been like that. I don't get takeout delivery either, just don't like people handling my food.
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... interesting, no?
Japan ends emergency. No lockdown, 850 deaths - ( New Window )
Amazing what can happen it you:
1) Have a robust public health system.
2) Have leadership with consistent messaging.
3) Have a population who will follow directives to distance, wear masks, etc without finding it a personal affront.
I believe New Zealand just released their last infected patient from the hospital and have had 5 straight days of 0 infections. Their population is just 5m people but I don't think we have a single state that's done that?
But i've always been like that. I don't get takeout delivery either, just don't like people handling my food.
We kept going to Trader Joes at the beginning and they did do an excellent job - had people lined up outside in designated intervals and only a few in the store at once. And that was in mid March.
Re: delivery, in both scenarios (grocery + food) pretty much everything gets packed in sealed bags at this point so it's never exposed beyond the store or restaurant with a seal to prove it. So it's certainly a leap of faith that the shopper/delivery person is taking precautions, but if you are washing the produce and cooking most everything else anyway the risk seems pretty minimal to surface transmission (which could happen touching a button in an elevator or in the store/restaurant anyway).
Just see what's going on in states that did not expand Medicaid...
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In comment 14911313 rnargi said:
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... interesting, no?
Japan ends emergency. No lockdown, 850 deaths - ( New Window )
Amazing what can happen it you:
1) Have a robust public health system.
2) Have leadership with consistent messaging.
3) Have a population who will follow directives to distance, wear masks, etc without finding it a personal affront.
4) A vast number of the populace that isn't obese and/or has other comorbid conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, etc. I read another interesting stat in Forbes today. 47% of deaths in the US came from nursing homes and assisted living facilities...which account for .62% of the US population.
I believe we have a robust health system in the US. I believe, also, we have a nation of people who live extremely unhealthy lifestyles that require care to facilitate those unhealthy lifestyles, which would strain any system. Just my .02
From what I have read, and kicker can correct me if I am wrong, Japan has one of the highest percentage hypertensive populations in the world, and what seems to be pretty widespread alcohol abuse. They're not all vegans living on a commune doing yoga every day.
And while we may have a "robust" health care system, it is disproportionately skewed against many of the demographics that are getting hit hardest by this.
What I find interesting, among other things, is that NY was only 13%. I wonder what the disparity is between upstate and downstate? I'm guessing upstate, which had a vastly lower per capita exposure, is more in line with national average.
can't vouch for the source - ( New Window )
They are also incredibly heavy smokers, and as you mention, a problem with alcohol.
The problem with disparate health outcomes in the U.S. are chicken or egg.
Are people acting poorly, which is exacerbated by a relative lack of health infrastructure? Or does the relative lack of health infrastructure deepen the health crisis, especially in underserved areas.
I don't care if it's 0.0%, I'm not doing downward dog!
aren't nursing homes fairly well regulated regarding health care provision? execution may be another matter.
Not naysaying, but curious, because on the surface, it would appear the hardest hit in the US have the most insurance/coverage. On the flip side, isn't medicare lacking in the prescription coverage, which would be an essential component of health care?
I only superficially follow medicare, as I'm not there yet.
https://www.prb.org/which-country-has-the-oldest-population/ - ( New Window )
A deadly ‘checkerboard’: Covid-19’s new surge across rural America - ( New Window )
There was just a PHD of nutrition that she'd be shocked if anyone under the age of 55 who has died was someone that didn't eat the garbage oils that are pervasive in our food. The issue is that is a very small sunset of the population. Even most the shit they sell at Whole Foods has a lot of this crap. It's just labeled nicer, like organic expeller pressed sunflower oil - still garbage.
Part B is mostly mandatory enrollment (physician/outpatient services), but you can get out if you have private insurance from work. I think the uptake rate is still high.
Medicare Advantage (Part C) is private health insurance to supplement (or fill in the gaps) from A and B, while Part D is prescription drug coverage (again not mandatory).
We don't really have a "universal" healthcare system in the U.S. Medicare probably mirrors it the most, but the neutering of the PPACA essentially got rid of the universal mandate.
What I find interesting, among other things, is that NY was only 13%. I wonder what the disparity is between upstate and downstate? I'm guessing upstate, which had a vastly lower per capita exposure, is more in line with national average. can't vouch for the source - ( New Window )
I live in Wayne, NJ. Our nursing homes have been absolutely ravaged. Total population of the town is around 50k. In total we'd had somewhere between 100-200 deaths, roughly 80% of which are nursing homes / assisted living. Total positive tests somewhere between 1500-2000 last i heard, of which again ~70-80% nursing homes/assisted living.
Each day the mayor does a ~5 min video for social media to share the updates. Lately each day it seems like 2-4 new deaths and 10-15 positive tests, and each day all but 1 or 2 of the new deaths/tests is 80-90% nursing homes/assisted living.
Not to be taken the wrong way, it's been a silver lining that the ages of the deceased have started to spike to the very high end of the range. Majority of the cases are 85-100 years old. Not that any lives are less valuable, but there would seem to be some increasing ability to contain/treat/recover cases in the "younger senior citizen" population.
Yeah. Geographic barriers were helpful initially, but the same reason why the Plague struck in Europe is the same thinking we have today: geographical barriers are enough to stop the spread of disease (wishful).
The biggest concern is what happens in rural areas WHEN people start getting infected en masse. There are limited healthcare facilities, which will swamp them. But in large parts of the country, the nearest source of care could be 60 minutes away. So, unless people there are proactive about respiratory concerns, we could be far too late in administering care.
But i've always been like that. I don't get takeout delivery either, just don't like people handling my food.
I’m like you. Why would you want a stranger touch your food if you can do it yourself. You don’t know how sanitize they are.
However, if you look at Appalachia only (a series of just really rural counties), the opposite is true; areas with more healthcare resources have fewer opioids being prescribed. Part of it is the socioeconomics of areas with few providers (labor-intensive, blue collar jobs with lots of injuries; high poverty rates; ...). But part of it is abuse and lack of care; doctors don't get to see patients much and have so many, they just are more open to providing opioids to get to see as many patients as possible.
Which suggests a difficulty here; top-down policies that may work well in wealthier areas may backfire in rural areas.
Even now with coronavirus, the economy is ruined and more 100,000 Americans are dead, do people even care enough to me angry about this and demand some kind of change? Idk... not even sure what’s possible. Just doesn’t seem like the status quo can hold.
So is it true the CDC has now predicted the true survival rate to be 99.6% of people who actually SHOW symptoms?
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The CDC is revising the predicted fatality rate to .4% with symptoms. Tricky wording. Doesn’t include people without symptoms. At one point the WHO predicted a 3.4% fatality rate.
So is it true the CDC has now predicted the true survival rate to be 99.6% of people who actually SHOW symptoms?
Link - ( New Window )
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The CDC is revising the predicted fatality rate to .4% with symptoms. Tricky wording. Doesn’t include people without symptoms. At one point the WHO predicted a 3.4% fatality rate.
So is it true the CDC has now predicted the true survival rate to be 99.6% of people who actually SHOW symptoms?
No, taking into account the 35-percent who may be asymptomatic, the MOST OPTIMISTIC mortality rate is 0.4% in total (not just those with symptoms).
Several epidemiologists have suggested that the reporting of the 0.4% infection rate is a bit misleading. They had 5 scenarios, and that was the bottom of the range.
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And I am probably late to the game.
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The CDC is revising the predicted fatality rate to .4% with symptoms. Tricky wording. Doesn’t include people without symptoms. At one point the WHO predicted a 3.4% fatality rate.
So is it true the CDC has now predicted the true survival rate to be 99.6% of people who actually SHOW symptoms?
Link - ( New Window )
I suck at math but that seems off. There are 1.7m confirmed cases and to meet the case definition the vast majority of people have to meet clinical criteria.
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In comment 14911759 Danny Kanell said:
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And I am probably late to the game.
Quote:
The CDC is revising the predicted fatality rate to .4% with symptoms. Tricky wording. Doesn’t include people without symptoms. At one point the WHO predicted a 3.4% fatality rate.
So is it true the CDC has now predicted the true survival rate to be 99.6% of people who actually SHOW symptoms?
Link - ( New Window )
I suck at math but that seems off. There are 1.7m confirmed cases and to meet the case definition the vast majority of people have to meet clinical criteria.
Yeah my head is spinning trying to make sense of this.
Link - ( New Window )
So, the plan is to rely on people who are not up to the task? A plan that relies on people to organically stop being stupid isn’t much of a plan.
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And I am probably late to the game.
Quote:
The CDC is revising the predicted fatality rate to .4% with symptoms. Tricky wording. Doesn’t include people without symptoms. At one point the WHO predicted a 3.4% fatality rate.
So is it true the CDC has now predicted the true survival rate to be 99.6% of people who actually SHOW symptoms?
No, taking into account the 35-percent who may be asymptomatic, the MOST OPTIMISTIC mortality rate is 0.4% in total (not just those with symptoms).
Several epidemiologists have suggested that the reporting of the 0.4% infection rate is a bit misleading. They had 5 scenarios, and that was the bottom of the range.
Are you sure about that? Again, you’re much more qualified than I but the 5 fatality rate scenarios seem to be contemplating symptomatic data. I could be completely wrong but that’s how I’m reading it. And that post I shared read it that way also.
Quote:
In comment 14911759 Danny Kanell said:
Quote:
And I am probably late to the game.
Quote:
The CDC is revising the predicted fatality rate to .4% with symptoms. Tricky wording. Doesn’t include people without symptoms. At one point the WHO predicted a 3.4% fatality rate.
So is it true the CDC has now predicted the true survival rate to be 99.6% of people who actually SHOW symptoms?
No, taking into account the 35-percent who may be asymptomatic, the MOST OPTIMISTIC mortality rate is 0.4% in total (not just those with symptoms).
Several epidemiologists have suggested that the reporting of the 0.4% infection rate is a bit misleading. They had 5 scenarios, and that was the bottom of the range.
Are you sure about that? Again, you’re much more qualified than I but the 5 fatality rate scenarios seem to be contemplating symptomatic data. I could be completely wrong but that’s how I’m reading it. And that post I shared read it that way also.
Yeah. I just saw that. It's not a clear table.
I can't imagine a scenario where it's only symptomatic death rates, because that makes no sense. But I guess that's what they are saying?
John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor in medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University had earlier calculated the reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population to be in the range of 0.05% to 1%.
So, basically summarizing the CDC article, with a bunch of useless partisan fluff.
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For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020.
John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor in medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University had earlier calculated the reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population to be in the range of 0.05% to 1%.
Still having a tough time. The Hopkins tracker has us at 1.7m confirmed cases and 100K deaths. That's nowhere near 0.4%. And, 99% of confirmed cases are not asymptomatic (confirmed cases, not extrapolated ones).
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For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020.
John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor in medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University had earlier calculated the reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population to be in the range of 0.05% to 1%.
Still having a tough time. The Hopkins tracker has us at 1.7m confirmed cases and 100K deaths. That's nowhere near 0.4%. And, 99% of confirmed cases are not asymptomatic (confirmed cases, not extrapolated ones).
I'm sure I slipped a decimal point somewhere.
I don't think that would affect the fatality rate though (Unless of course the hospitals get overrun and people who would have survived with proper care don't because they can't get timely medical intervention). This is just a measure of the disease itself, not it's spread.
LOL me too.
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Quote:
For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020.
John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor in medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University had earlier calculated the reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population to be in the range of 0.05% to 1%.
Still having a tough time. The Hopkins tracker has us at 1.7m confirmed cases and 100K deaths. That's nowhere near 0.4%. And, 99% of confirmed cases are not asymptomatic (confirmed cases, not extrapolated ones).
I think they are modelling over time and the future, and how it will play out in the long-run. Not what we have seen so far.
If it's based on the current numbers, they have extrapolated how many people they THINK are asymptomatic and how many who have not been tested have it. Because otherwise, you're right, the numbers are illogical.
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it's also based on any successes from the policies that we have put into place. So, if we start eliminating a lot of the shelter-in-place policies, it could go up.
I don't think that would affect the fatality rate though (Unless of course the hospitals get overrun and people who would have survived with proper care don't because they can't get timely medical intervention). This is just a measure of the disease itself, not it's spread.
They also measure the spread of the disease in there models. So it could be applicable. May not budge the number, but it's a metric.
And yes, capacity constraints, as well as COVID-19 starting to hit the rural and underserved areas (perhaps more) could increase those rates.
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For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020.
John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor in medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University had earlier calculated the reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population to be in the range of 0.05% to 1%.
That’s coming from an extremely biased writer and website, so no, I would not say it clears things up. And Loannidis’ study was funded by industry interests and has been criticized by most scientitists.
As I noted when this was first posted, the CDC is significantly undercounting fatalities. And even if the numbers were right, the extreme communicability of the disease still results in 4 million hospitalizations and 500,000 dead.
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Quote:
For the first time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has given a realistic estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, which in its most likely scenario is 0.26 %. They estimate a 0.4 % fatality rate among the symptomatic cases. If you consider their projection that 35% of all infected cases remain asymptomatic, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) drops to just 0.26 %. This is almost exactly what the Stanford researchers had projected in April 2020.
John P.A. Ioannidis, a professor in medicine, epidemiology and population health, biomedical data science, and statistics at Stanford University had earlier calculated the reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population to be in the range of 0.05% to 1%.
That’s coming from an extremely biased writer and website, so no, I would not say it clears things up. And Loannidis’ study was funded by industry interests and has been criticized by most scientitists.
As I noted when this was first posted, the CDC is significantly undercounting fatalities. And even if the numbers were right, the extreme communicability of the disease still results in 4 million hospitalizations and 500,000 dead.
OK.
That's what i've been trying to figure out too. My gut is telling me it's an output of the 5 analysis (Basically "best guess" from all the analysis). That seems like that's the way it reads.
1. Almost everyone who gets covid will survive
2. An extremely low percentage of people below the age of 50 who get covid will need to be hospitalized; most of those hospitalized will survive and recover
3. Due to the highly transmittable nature of this virus, almost everyone will eventually be exposed to this virus
4. There's no vaccine in sight for at least a year or two or maybe even longer.
All of this seems to me to indicate that its easy to get but pretty hard to die from. I'm not discounting of minimizing any deaths or the lost loved ones. This is a serious public health crises. But its not the end of life for most of us who are infected. It may seem grim but we need to learn to live with this virus for at least a year or two and probably more.
Like all viruses, SARS-COV-2 has been mutating, and differences in the molecules can be detected around the world. Those minor mutations are why they were able to determine that infections in New York have largely come from Europe, not Asia.
But most mutations don’t make a material difference. Thus far, the data does not support any of the variations being more or less deadly or transmissible.
All of this seems to me to indicate that its easy to get but pretty hard to die from. I'm not discounting of minimizing any deaths or the lost loved ones. This is a serious public health crises. But its not the end of life for most of us who are infected. It may seem grim but we need to learn to live with this virus for at least a year or two and probably more.
All of this seems to me to indicate that its easy to get but pretty hard to die from. I'm not discounting of minimizing any deaths or the lost loved ones. This is a serious public health crises. But its not the end of life for most of us who are infected. It may seem grim but we need to learn to live with this virus for at least a year or two and probably more.
I would wait before even saying that much. There's some really weird stuff that happens with this infection. It, directly or indirectly, really screws up your clotting system and who knows what long term effects tiny little clots might have if they lodge somewhere and hang out for a while. And, we still don't know what will happen when you get exposed for the second time next winter.
We know that this virus is respiratory, and has the ability to invade the heart and kidneys. Are there any long-term consequences (scarring of lung tissue, heart abnormalities, lessened kidney function) that can occur from this that may manifest themselves in the future?
So, just like focusing on deaths may miss a larger picture, so may simply assuming that recovered means back to where you were.
These serologic tests, which test blood for antibodies created in response to the virus, SARS-CoV-2, should be used for research and virus surveillance purposes and not to make public health recommendations or to determine immunity, the federal health agency said in new interim guidance posted to its website.
CDC - ( New Window )
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But if you let it run rampant without preventive measures you’re more likely to Be exposed at the level that have killed healthy young health care workers.
All of this seems to me to indicate that its easy to get but pretty hard to die from. I'm not discounting of minimizing any deaths or the lost loved ones. This is a serious public health crises. But its not the end of life for most of us who are infected. It may seem grim but we need to learn to live with this virus for at least a year or two and probably more.
I would wait before even saying that much. There's some really weird stuff that happens with this infection. It, directly or indirectly, really screws up your clotting system and who knows what long term effects tiny little clots might have if they lodge somewhere and hang out for a while. And, we still don't know what will happen when you get exposed for the second time next winter.
Careful, Bill. Ron Mexico's comment was the first paragraph. He screwed up the quoting and captured trueblue's 2nd paragraph making it look like it was attributed to him.
But you and Kicker are correct in that the survivor's shouldn't be taking a victory lap, yet. The cytokine storms as part of the immuno response to COVID seems to have lingering effects not just to the clotting, but also tissue damage to other vital organs.
As far as infected fatality rate, we can quibble or even fight about the percentage. But even the worst ifr, which I believe is still Italy, the deaths are almost all among those 80 and older. Again, not discounting older people dying, but if you’re 50 or younger this almost certainly isn’t going to land you in the hospital and almost certainly will not kill you even if you are hospitalized. 50 to 65 there’s more risk, yes, which also varies from country to country, but it’s still no where near those that are 80 or over. Certain existing health conditions heighten risk among people 30 and older. Yes these at risk and vulnerable need to be extra careful and protected.
This virus sucks, and it’s a serious public health crises that exposes lots of flaws with a lot of different facets of the world. But the fear is way oversold. We need to be much more reasonable and much less afraid.
Funny someone mentioned running a victory lap. I’m happy to say that today I got back on the track and ran 2 miles. Before having covid I’d run 5 miles - so I’m obviously way off my pace and need to drop lbs and train to get back there. But it sure as heck felt great to be out there getting after it. Victory lap? You better believe it, today was one the best runs of my life.
I agree that we need to get back to normal. Everyone wants that ASAP. We just gotta be smart about how we go doing that. We need to follow science & data. We need more testing. We need to make sure those most vulnerable are isolated from population at large.
How are we accounting for the well over 50M Americans over 60?
How are we accounting for the untold number of people with serious underlying health conditions?
What analysis is being done to understand if the death rate trends high among 80 year olds because they are 80, or because of the percentage in circumstances where distancing, cleanliness, and information was difficult to come by?
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In comment 14912068 ron mexico said:
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But if you let it run rampant without preventive measures you’re more likely to Be exposed at the level that have killed healthy young health care workers.
All of this seems to me to indicate that its easy to get but pretty hard to die from. I'm not discounting of minimizing any deaths or the lost loved ones. This is a serious public health crises. But its not the end of life for most of us who are infected. It may seem grim but we need to learn to live with this virus for at least a year or two and probably more.
I would wait before even saying that much. There's some really weird stuff that happens with this infection. It, directly or indirectly, really screws up your clotting system and who knows what long term effects tiny little clots might have if they lodge somewhere and hang out for a while. And, we still don't know what will happen when you get exposed for the second time next winter.
Careful, Bill. Ron Mexico's comment was the first paragraph. He screwed up the quoting and captured trueblue's 2nd paragraph making it look like it was attributed to him.
But you and Kicker are correct in that the survivor's shouldn't be taking a victory lap, yet. The cytokine storms as part of the immuno response to COVID seems to have lingering effects not just to the clotting, but also tissue damage to other vital organs.
That’s true. I mentioned clotting because it’s been on my mind a lot lately. We’re starting to test kids with multi-inflammatory syndrome and also Kawasaki’s which are COVID and likely clotting related. And, we’re seeing freaky things in the lab, like plasma from COVID *convalescent* people (>30 d) turning to jelly when you put the tube into a water bath. Messed up stuff.
I agree that we need to get back to normal. Everyone wants that ASAP. We just gotta be smart about how we go doing that. We need to follow science & data. We need more testing. We need to make sure those most vulnerable are isolated from population at large.
Thanks man! It took a long time to shake off that nasty virus. So glad the local high school reopened the running track because my repaired knee won’t allow me to run on the road.
I would think the things that were literally done to stop the spread (masks, social distancing, etc) are a far more logical reason for seeing a slow of the spread than a series of theoretical mutations that made the virus weaker.
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but is it possible the virus has mutated so much that it has weakened from its start? i think social distancing has worked but i dont think social distancing is the only reason things have gone down..
I would think the things that were literally done to stop the spread (masks, social distancing, etc) are a far more logical reason for seeing a slow of the spread than a series of theoretical mutations that made the virus weaker.
If there is much widespread uncertainty regarding what might cause a reduction in cases, perhaps Trump will see an opportunity to take credit for it and claim he ordered hydroxychloroquine to be added to our water supply.
So just to reiterate my personal status, I've remained 100% symptom free despite being exposed every darn day, numerous times per day, to people in my work space who flaunt the rules of mask and gloves wearing.
And I have every fooking target this disease aims for squarely on my back: 64.5 YO, over 20 years diabetic with poor control, morphing from type II to type I finally.
Suffer from poorly contolled hypertension.
Type A+ blood.
Borderline "obese", certainly overweightny 50+ #.
I'm a freaking ticking time bomb, yet the only measures I take are wearing a mask in public and at work, mostly keeping up social distancing, and really keeping my hands away from my face. Along with frequent thorough hand washing.
Re the blood type correlations shown in the Chinese data, have there been any updates to that work since it was reported in late March?
In a brief Google review earlier today I didn't find much new reportage since April.
Can you expand on the "turning to jelly" part. What exactly does that indicate?
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That’s true. I mentioned clotting because it’s been on my mind a lot lately. We’re starting to test kids with multi-inflammatory syndrome and also Kawasaki’s which are COVID and likely clotting related. And, we’re seeing freaky things in the lab, like plasma from COVID *convalescent* people (>30 d) turning to jelly when you put the tube into a water bath. Messed up stuff.
Can you expand on the "turning to jelly" part. What exactly does that indicate?
Honestly, I don't know other than what I said. My assumption is that something about the virus or the immune response to the virus is interfacing with the coagulation pathway and that the affects last well past the infection phase in some people. We also noticed it with serum from COVID people when we heat-treated it. We assumed that the blood wasn't spun hard enough so that we were still seeing fibrin clots, but who really knows.
What he said to me is he's friends with doctors at Columbia Med and there have been more discussions on this disease as a blood disorder as much (if not potentially more) than a respiratory one. And as more information comes in, there is more data pointing to an issue with a blood disorder which is one of the reasons that it impacts so many different systems. Something to keep an eye on, particularly with what Bill was seeing.
What he said to me is he's friends with doctors at Columbia Med and there have been more discussions on this disease as a blood disorder as much (if not potentially more) than a respiratory one. And as more information comes in, there is more data pointing to an issue with a blood disorder which is one of the reasons that it impacts so many different systems. Something to keep an eye on, particularly with what Bill was seeing.
As awful as the immediate impact has been (deaths, hospitalizations, etc) - the unknown aspects are the greater challenge. Not trying to be a fear monger or act like we need to plan for every unknown farfetched contingency, but the known aspects of this virus (particularly the tranrsmittability even in tropical climates like Brazil, impact on healthcare workers possibly due to exposure levels, and potency with certain co-morbidities) certainly point to the possibility of the immediate impacts not being the ceiling on how dangerous this could be. Especially if total infection levels doubled, tripled, quadrupled, etc.
This seems like a critical thing to figure out.
This and the role of kids in spread seem like big questions that need answers as soon as possible.
Answers needed yesterday
L o fucking L.
I give up.
L o fucking L.
I give up.
The sad part is they have no idea
Quote:
Now the WHO is saying healthy people should not wear masks unless they are caring for a person with COVID.
L o fucking L.
I give up.
The sad part is they have no idea
Everyday I feel more and more like no one does.
L o fucking L.
I give up.
That’s not new. That’s been their position.
"We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic."
Nejm. May 21 2020
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Now the WHO is saying healthy people should not wear masks unless they are caring for a person with COVID.
L o fucking L.
I give up.
That’s not new. That’s been their position.
The World Health Organization has publicly stated this position since early April.
From a quick Google search, it appears a single network/site has published this as news today.
"We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic."
Nejm. May 21 2020
That’s from a Perspectives article, which means Opinion. It’s not the official position of the NEJM.
But it doesn't stop me from wearing a mask virtually all day long when I'm at work facing dozens of unmasked folks who are potential carriers, since they come from a community (Orthodox Jews) that endured rampant infection rates.
Previously I noted the staggering differences between Israel's Covid pandemic and New Jersey's, and mentioned one possible reason for Israel's 20 fold lower death rate being superior medicine. Well as it now stands a week two later, Israel's 281 deaths from Covid-19 compares to New Jersey's 11,081, and the ratio has moved to 1:40 deaths in Israel vs NJ.
I mentioned just above the blood type influences, and I'm pretty sure Ashkenazi Jews have a higher proclivity to blood type A (or A/B), the most susceptible blood type for Covid infection. On that basis alone, Israel should have had worse results than NJ.
(Out of memory, not bothering right now to reconfirm that.)
Anyway, I thought I might mention that via consultation with my PCP in Israel, a top diabetic treatment specialist, I changed my hypertension daily pills from 40 mg Lisinopril to 10 mg daily Amlopidine.
Both are common medications for hypertension, and I have also been on hydrochlorothiazide at 25 mg daily for some time, a diuretic also to lower my hypertension.
Back to the point, my doc in Israel told me immediately to get off the Lisinopril, as it seems to be indicated as a potential co-stimulus to the blood clotting disorder(s) found in many Covid cases.
My US doctor hadn't seemed to have a clue about this, as she never mentioned it to me despite being clearly worried about my overall condition and the possibility of me contracting Covid.
She immediately agreed to the change in meds as prescribed by my Israeli doc.
The question remains why SHE didn't know about it or suggest or recommend it prior to my telling her about my Israeli doc's suggestion.
Israel's low death rate from Covid-19 - ( New Window )
Otherwise I'd hardly get into discussing my personal meds with anyone else, much less on a public forum.
It’s amazing how successful some countries are in dealing with covid. And then there’s our country. 101,000 dead and counting. How long are American going to put up with this?
Otherwise I'd hardly get into discussing my personal meds with anyone else, much less on a public forum.
ACE inhibitors like Lisinopril were red flagged early in the outbreak based on some random reports of a connection. Several studies reported this month there were no negative connections between ACE inhibitors and Covid 19. In fact some studies found the opposite:
Seniors with COVID-19 taking ACE inhibitors have lower hospitalization risk - ( New Window )
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versus other technologically advanced nations in response to Corona, including mention of different approaches and results. Israel's low death rate from Covid-19 - ( New Window )
It’s amazing how successful some countries are in dealing with covid. And then there’s our country. 101,000 dead and counting. How long are American going to put up with this?
Besides Israel and New Zealand what countries are doing well? One a strict country very nationalistic and the other completely isolated and tiny.
The example of the WHO only recommending those in contact with the sick needing to wear masks is a fascinating example. This is there consistent stance for the last few months. But yesterday for some reason it popped up in certain news circles as new, and was interpreted as confusing.
The example of the WHO only recommending those in contact with the sick needing to wear masks is a fascinating example. This is there consistent stance for the last few months. But yesterday for some reason it popped up in certain news circles as new, and was interpreted as confusing.
Misinformation and muddying the waters has sadly been a feature of our country's response from day 1, not a bug. Nobody is going to get everything 100% the first time and some data will lead to evolution of guidance (like the initial guidance on masks) but there's a difference between honest mistakes and bad faith deception.
The bigger problem imo is the stuff that's not as widely known like the below given that there's already been a lot of evidence of outbreaks (even in SK) tied to these sorts of activities (likely why the CDC felt compelled to make those recommendations in the first place). Intentional omissions and censorships of official CDC recommendations like these (not laws, recommended guidelines) seem negligent and borderline criminal.
It added: “The act of singing may contribute to transmission of Covid-19, possibly through emission of aerosols.”
By Saturday, that version was replaced by updated guidance that no longer includes any reference to choirs or congregant singing and the risk for spreading virus. The altered guidance also deleted a reference to “shared cups” among items, including hymnals and worship rugs, that should not be shared. The updated guidelines also added language that said the guidance “is not intended to infringe on rights protected by the First Amendment.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/white-house-and-cdc-remove-coronavirus-warnings-about-choirs-in-faith-guidance/2020/05/28/5d9c526e-a117-11ea-9590-1858a893bd59_story.html - ( New Window )
but what does the continuing claims mean, which is a week behind?
The consensus was for a rise of 677k to 25,750,000 but the actual ended up falling just over 4m to 21,052,000.
I heard that the acceptance of masks will lead to an acceptance of other more serious infringements of rights.
That’s not something I’m particularly worried about, but it’s a talking point out there
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Until this is over. Youre not weak if you wear one out. Why is it such a god damn big deal?
I heard that the acceptance of masks will lead to an acceptance of other more serious infringements of rights.
That’s not something I’m particularly worried about, but it’s a talking point out there
The irony is that a lot of those same people frequently talk about the "pussification of America."
First the masks, then the microchips!!! /s
I dunno why people do not wear it in stores or soemwhere you cant social distance..
But the people yelling at peoplr not wearing a mask outside by themselves is ridiculous as well...for example on the golf course, the group in front of us split because 2 of the people would not wear a mask..
This example fits in another weird column. Taking an old piece of information and re-reporting feels like a combination of both errors you've described.
I think the deeper, more important point is all citizens should view information with their eyes wide open, get their information from many sources, and allow themselves to become skeptical of sources that are inaccurate (even if the misinformation aligns with how they'd like things to be).
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Part of it is clearing out the system of old claims, but indicative that opening up won't return the economy to where it was.
but what does the continuing claims mean, which is a week behind?
The consensus was for a rise of 677k to 25,750,000 but the actual ended up falling just over 4m to 21,052,000.
Continuing claims is people who have filed for >1 time. So, yes, it fell. Several potential reasons.
1. The economy is getting better, and so people are going back to their jobs (but still a long time for those numbers to get back).
2. If you look, the people reporting "continued claims" are overreporting the drop. Several states, including CA and FL (1.4 million and 1.6 million claims, I believe, respectively) report bi-weekly. This was their off week. So, the statistical fall SHOULD have been a couple of million not including them. So it could turn out that next week's continued claim number could be several million higher.
3. People are forgetting about the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Program for people who are non-traditionally not allowed to receive UI benefits, and so they may have simply forgotten to turn in paperwork.
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In comment 14912852 BlueLou'sBack said:
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versus other technologically advanced nations in response to Corona, including mention of different approaches and results. Israel's low death rate from Covid-19 - ( New Window )
It’s amazing how successful some countries are in dealing with covid. And then there’s our country. 101,000 dead and counting. How long are American going to put up with this?
Besides Israel and New Zealand what countries are doing well? One a strict country very nationalistic and the other completely isolated and tiny.
Japan and South Korea, I think the Scandinavian countries are doing at least okay, thought Germany did as well as could be expected. It’s fair to acknowledge no one seems to escaping the virus - a point which I’ve made all along, that it’s impossible to avoid this virus and we shouldn’t be crafting policy that pursues this obviously foolish goal. My point about the success in Israel, and elsewhere is that they’re taking what appears to be a more rational and reasonable and coordinated approach. If you read what that public health expert in Israel says, it’s much the same as what many clear thinking people right here on BBI having been saying.
I’m also a little tired of hearing about what we can’t do in America because we’re not (your excuse goes here). In the past, the people of this country have been able to do some pretty amazing things. We’re the wealthiest nation on the planet. But now all of the sudden some China virus hits and we’re okay with being a shit hole nation? Fuck that...
About 69-percent of our GDP comes from household consumption. That ranks us right around the following countries with similar profiles: Serbia, Ukraine, Belize, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Hong Kong, Greece, Vietnam, Togo, Uruguay, Swaziland.
The UK is 65%.
Germany is 52%.
SK is 49%.
Israel is 55%.
France is 54%.
Sweden is 45%.
Finland is 53%.
New Zealand is 58%.
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Until this is over. Youre not weak if you wear one out. Why is it such a god damn big deal?
I dunno why people do not wear it in stores or soemwhere you cant social distance..
But the people yelling at peoplr not wearing a mask outside by themselves is ridiculous as well...for example on the golf course, the group in front of us split because 2 of the people would not wear a mask..
In my community on Long Island, there is a facebook page for the community and you are shamed for wearing a mask and called a pussy. Its annoying. I already told them im the 6'4 230lb guy walking around with a MichigaN hat and a Michigan mask, feel free to approach me and let me know how much of a puss I am wearing my mask.
And im not going to yell at anyone not wearing 1 I just wonder why its So awful to just pop one on just to be safe
Quote:
In comment 14912979 KDubbs said:
Quote:
Until this is over. Youre not weak if you wear one out. Why is it such a god damn big deal?
I dunno why people do not wear it in stores or soemwhere you cant social distance..
But the people yelling at peoplr not wearing a mask outside by themselves is ridiculous as well...for example on the golf course, the group in front of us split because 2 of the people would not wear a mask..
In my community on Long Island, there is a facebook page for the community and you are shamed for wearing a mask and called a pussy. Its annoying. I already told them im the 6'4 230lb guy walking around with a MichigaN hat and a Michigan mask, feel free to approach me and let me know how much of a puss I am wearing my mask.
And im not going to yell at anyone not wearing 1 I just wonder why its So awful to just pop one on just to be safe
I don't care if people wear masks so much as think that they should realize that legitimate consequences and, likely should, include being denied entrance into a business or public building and being excluded (or having other exclude themselves) from groups. In isolation, do whatever you want.
Quote:
In comment 14912979 KDubbs said:
Quote:
Until this is over. Youre not weak if you wear one out. Why is it such a god damn big deal?
I dunno why people do not wear it in stores or soemwhere you cant social distance..
But the people yelling at peoplr not wearing a mask outside by themselves is ridiculous as well...for example on the golf course, the group in front of us split because 2 of the people would not wear a mask..
In my community on Long Island, there is a facebook page for the community and you are shamed for wearing a mask and called a pussy. Its annoying. I already told them im the 6'4 230lb guy walking around with a MichigaN hat and a Michigan mask, feel free to approach me and let me know how much of a puss I am wearing my mask.
And im not going to yell at anyone not wearing 1 I just wonder why its So awful to just pop one on just to be safe
i will never ask someone who is walking by themselves hey why are you wearing a mask? if you want to wear one at all times, and it makes you feel safe, then do it..
no one should be shamed for wearing a mask
any store near me will not allow you in without a mask..
I have not been to one store eith someone not wearing a mask
But in this country, we're nearly as likely to see the opposite occur more frequently:
oh, you rebels! - ( New Window )
A worker at Target had his arm broken when he told some dipshit he had to wear a mask. A worker at a dollar store was shot when he tried to enforce a mask rule.
How about instead of stores growing a pair, people stop taking their lead from an ignoramus and just wear a fucking mask when they go to stores?
Quote:
entry to anyone not wearing one. I've seen more small businesses and mom and pops enforce this successfully so the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world need to grow a pair.
A worker at Target had his arm broken when he told some dipshit he had to wear a mask. A worker at a dollar store was shot when he tried to enforce a mask rule.
How about instead of stores growing a pair, people stop taking their lead from an ignoramus and just wear a fucking mask when they go to stores?
Positive COVID-19 patient was at crowded Lake of the Ozarks bars over Memorial Day weekend - ( New Window )
Positive COVID-19 patient was at crowded Lake of the Ozarks bars over Memorial Day weekend - ( New Window )
Idiots. I saw that last weekend & thought, 'Great. Someone there will have it & get a bunch of people sick.'
Quote:
no-one could have predicted this
Positive COVID-19 patient was at crowded Lake of the Ozarks bars over Memorial Day weekend - ( New Window )
Idiots. I saw that last weekend & thought, 'Great. Someone there will have it & get a bunch of people sick.'
Sounds like a hell of a weekend though, we could turn down ripping it up at Shady gators and Buffalo Wild Wings. Got to get that Nitecap in at Black water Jack’s
Saturday May 23
Backwater Jacks 1 p.m.- 5 p.m.
Shady Gators and Lazy Gators Pool 5:40 p.m. - 9 p.m.
Backwater Jacks 9:40 p.m. - 10 p.m.
Sunday May 24
Buffalo Wild Wings 1 p.m. - 2 p.m.
Shady Gators 2:30 p.m. until - 6:30-7 p.m.
When I saw those videos last weekend, I knew this would happen. A lot of people are idiots. Plain & simple.
Can't understand why people refuse to wear a mask in public places around other people.
I've had a good experience ordering online during this pandemic and doubt I'll ever go back to grocery stores.
Quote:
entry to anyone not wearing one. I've seen more small businesses and mom and pops enforce this successfully so the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world need to grow a pair.
Can't understand why people refuse to wear a mask in public places around other people.
I've had a good experience ordering online during this pandemic and doubt I'll ever go back to grocery stores.
You’re NEVER going back to a grocery store? Yeah, bullshit. Get a grip
About 69-percent of our GDP comes from household consumption. That ranks us right around the following countries with similar profiles: Serbia, Ukraine, Belize, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Hong Kong, Greece, Vietnam, Togo, Uruguay, Swaziland.
The UK is 65%.
Germany is 52%.
SK is 49%.
Israel is 55%.
France is 54%.
Sweden is 45%.
Finland is 53%.
New Zealand is 58%.
I expect we will compete in reopening on a state by state basis - even though that means differences in their respective situations must be ignored. Other nations don't count for this purpose. Thrust will be to reopen more rapidly to keep up, as it were, even if doing that makes no local sense. So it all will be faster than perhaps it should be. How will that turn out? Check in about three weeks from now for the answer. Cases up or down?
These riots are ending the lockdown, close the thread.
Quote:
entry to anyone not wearing one. I've seen more small businesses and mom and pops enforce this successfully so the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world need to grow a pair.
Can't understand why people refuse to wear a mask in public places around other people.
I've had a good experience ordering online during this pandemic and doubt I'll ever go back to grocery stores.
I've been doing pickup and I have to say I don't miss going in the store at all except for the fact that my 2 year old enjoyed it.
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In comment 14913145 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
entry to anyone not wearing one. I've seen more small businesses and mom and pops enforce this successfully so the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world need to grow a pair.
Can't understand why people refuse to wear a mask in public places around other people.
I've had a good experience ordering online during this pandemic and doubt I'll ever go back to grocery stores.
I've been doing pickup and I have to say I don't miss going in the store at all except for the fact that my 2 year old enjoyed it.
Then again, I'm not judging anyones dietary habits at all, just offering my personal perspective. Food delivery can add up pretty fast where I live.
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In comment 14913367 US1 Giants said:
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In comment 14913145 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
entry to anyone not wearing one. I've seen more small businesses and mom and pops enforce this successfully so the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world need to grow a pair.
Can't understand why people refuse to wear a mask in public places around other people.
I've had a good experience ordering online during this pandemic and doubt I'll ever go back to grocery stores.
I've been doing pickup and I have to say I don't miss going in the store at all except for the fact that my 2 year old enjoyed it.
Eh, it's a lot more expensive and a lot more unhealthy than heading to a grocery store and cooking your own food. Plus, snacks.
Then again, I'm not judging anyones dietary habits at all, just offering my personal perspective. Food delivery can add up pretty fast where I live.
I think he means curbside pick-up of groceries.
We've been doing deliveries and curbside pick-ups as well.
We will probably continue to do it for the convenience even after the pandemic passes.
These riots are ending the lockdown, close the thread.
Masks will now be prohibited because the facial recognition systems are now useless.
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In comment 14913397 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
In comment 14913367 US1 Giants said:
Quote:
In comment 14913145 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
entry to anyone not wearing one. I've seen more small businesses and mom and pops enforce this successfully so the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world need to grow a pair.
Can't understand why people refuse to wear a mask in public places around other people.
I've had a good experience ordering online during this pandemic and doubt I'll ever go back to grocery stores.
I've been doing pickup and I have to say I don't miss going in the store at all except for the fact that my 2 year old enjoyed it.
Eh, it's a lot more expensive and a lot more unhealthy than heading to a grocery store and cooking your own food. Plus, snacks.
Then again, I'm not judging anyones dietary habits at all, just offering my personal perspective. Food delivery can add up pretty fast where I live.
I think he means curbside pick-up of groceries.
We've been doing deliveries and curbside pick-ups as well.
We will probably continue to do it for the convenience even after the pandemic passes.
Ah true, misunderstood. Makes more sense now.
These riots are ending the lockdown, close the thread.
wanna post the twitter handle you saw that on?
Saw a bunch of armed military cosplayers storm capital buildings recently. You catch a glimpse of that? You gotta a HAWT TWITTER TAKE on that bro?
Any police state worth their jackboots is using gait and stride analysis for surveillance and re-education scholarship selection. Get with the times brah!
At first I wasn't running with a mask because I couldn't stand it, but where I am, the good running streets can get some foot traffic and I would go an off-times.
Now what I do, and I think is an easy solution, is tie a bandana around my neck. When I'm not near anyone, it just hangs and is no problem. If I start to get near people that I can't avoid too well, I'll pull the bandana up over my nose/mouth until I'm in the clear.
to a liquor store but not attend AA meetings.
really ??? I have a friend in AA and he now attends virtual meeting on zoom .. he is actually attending more meetings now because it is more convenient.
but you know what really SUCKS .. is people using false choices direct from Fox News to politicize this pandemic ..
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Masks will now be prohibited because the facial recognition systems are now useless.
Any police state worth their jackboots is using gait and stride analysis for surveillance and re-education scholarship selection. Get with the times brah!
That’s why I crip walk in public.
Link - ( New Window )
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In comment 14913145 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
entry to anyone not wearing one. I've seen more small businesses and mom and pops enforce this successfully so the Home Depots and Lowe's of the world need to grow a pair.
Can't understand why people refuse to wear a mask in public places around other people.
I've had a good experience ordering online during this pandemic and doubt I'll ever go back to grocery stores.
You’re NEVER going back to a grocery store? Yeah, bullshit. Get a grip
Get a grip? He’s not alone. We do all our shopping online now and even when we go to a local farm or market we do curb side pickup. It’s not bullshit. Why the hell should someone go to the store when dickless fucking assholes either don’t wear the mask correctly or don’t wear one at all?
Even before this shit it was very easy avoiding the grocery store.
I will gladly pay a few bucks and add a job to the economy to have someone who is efficient and effective snag the groceries and bring them outside.
Hahaha.
Also from the CDC... - ( New Window )
coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything - ( New Window )
When I go in person it takes longer to find things, and I usually buy at least one thing that wasn't on my list on impulse. Junk food, a beer I want to try, etc.
The biggest worry was not picking my own produce, but, surprise, the people at Whole Foods don't want you to be unhappy so they don't give you a bag full of rotten vegetables.
Delivery through Instacart was a crap experience for us though, and their price markup is ridiculous. Whole Foods pickup has been a $2 flat fee.
That's pretty fascinating. It seems likely we are eventually going to learn something like this, that will explain part of why this has been so problematic for certain people, and hopefully help develop therapeutics if the vaccine isn't ready yet.
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'Apparently you can't open a restaurant, but you can burn one down'
These riots are ending the lockdown, close the thread.
wanna post the twitter handle you saw that on?
Saw a bunch of armed military cosplayers storm capital buildings recently. You catch a glimpse of that? You gotta a HAWT TWITTER TAKE on that bro?
Small wonder you can't find a job.
That's a really cool article. Thanks.
Quote:
As per Bill L discussion earlier coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything - ( New Window )
That's a really cool article. Thanks.
It is and touches on the Cytokine Storm that is believed to be the root cause. I mentioned the Cytokine Storm Syndrome (CSS) a few pages ago, but it didn't get much traction.
An excerpt:
This activation induces inflammatory monocytes to highly express IL-6, starting a localized and then systemic cascade effect that results in hyperproduction of IL-6, which accelerates the inflammatory process.11-13 Because IL-6 also increases vascular permeability, excessive levels cause blood vessels to become very leaky. This, along with clotting factors released from vascular endothelial cells, stimulates the coagulation cascade, resulting in microthromboses (tiny clots), which leads to ischemia and tissue death of the kidney, intestines, heart, liver, brain and extremities.
COVID-19 and Cytokine Storm Syndrome - ( New Window )
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In comment 14913394 Nitro said:
Quote:
'Apparently you can't open a restaurant, but you can burn one down'
These riots are ending the lockdown, close the thread.
wanna post the twitter handle you saw that on?
Saw a bunch of armed military cosplayers storm capital buildings recently. You catch a glimpse of that? You gotta a HAWT TWITTER TAKE on that bro?
Small wonder you can't find a job.
Yeah, might be the global fucking pandemic, asshole. Got a message for any of the other 40 million unemployed Americans? What a scumbag, disgraceful comment. Go fuck yourself.
BTW, since you've seemingly cherry picked my posts, you must have missed where I've said I'm in the final reference check portion for an opportunity, in an interview process that has been ongoing since April 3rd. So once again, you can go fuck yourself for making a judgement about my competency in my field.
Go mainline right wing twitter straight into you veins.
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In comment 14913419 Sonic Youth said:
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In comment 14913394 Nitro said:
Quote:
'Apparently you can't open a restaurant, but you can burn one down'
These riots are ending the lockdown, close the thread.
wanna post the twitter handle you saw that on?
Saw a bunch of armed military cosplayers storm capital buildings recently. You catch a glimpse of that? You gotta a HAWT TWITTER TAKE on that bro?
Small wonder you can't find a job.
Yeah, might be the global fucking pandemic, asshole. Got a message for any of the other 40 million unemployed Americans? What a scumbag, disgraceful comment. Go fuck yourself.
BTW, since you've seemingly cherry picked my posts, you must have missed where I've said I'm in the final reference check portion for an opportunity, in an interview process that has been ongoing since April 3rd. So once again, you can go fuck yourself for making a judgement about my competency in my field.
Go mainline right wing twitter straight into you veins.
Do not even bither, do not let a miserable person bring you to their level..
A miserable person will always drag someonr dowm with them, dont let him
Thanks BBI's wine aunt for your irreplaceable contribution.
Quote:
In comment 14913419 Sonic Youth said:
Quote:
In comment 14913394 Nitro said:
Quote:
'Apparently you can't open a restaurant, but you can burn one down'
These riots are ending the lockdown, close the thread.
wanna post the twitter handle you saw that on?
Saw a bunch of armed military cosplayers storm capital buildings recently. You catch a glimpse of that? You gotta a HAWT TWITTER TAKE on that bro?
Small wonder you can't find a job.
Yeah, might be the global fucking pandemic, asshole. Got a message for any of the other 40 million unemployed Americans? What a scumbag, disgraceful comment. Go fuck yourself.
BTW, since you've seemingly cherry picked my posts, you must have missed where I've said I'm in the final reference check portion for an opportunity, in an interview process that has been ongoing since April 3rd. So once again, you can go fuck yourself for making a judgement about my competency in my field.
Go mainline right wing twitter straight into you veins.
No I didn't miss it, I just don't think 11 interviews for whatever analyst level job you're going for portends to being a good place to work, you're getting jerked around by a company that isn't worth all this nonsense, it'll probably be a good thing when it doesn't pan out for you. Besides, you started in on me so your pity party is falling deaf ears.
Problem with people like you is you think you've performed some masterful gotcha in your reply, like it's illegal to have thoughts outside of your worldview. Sure, my quip came somewhere from right-wing twitter, but address it substantively or don't address it at all. My politics are not some grand mystery but I follow a diverse amount of sources and really am not an ideological foot soldier of any sort, but when I see something that makes sense to me I may pass it on. I'm pretty sure your feelings on people in Michigan's state house vs. rioters yesterday/tonight betray more hypocrisy than you are willing to concede, so continued engagement with you is not going to be worth it.
Point made less pithy to others, do you really think social distancing enforcement is going to have any teeth now that we have legitimate riots where none of these precautions are being observed? (riots, which genesis aside are entirely exacerbated by locking everyone up for 3 months) If you need more proof this bullshit is doing more harm than good, watch the news tonight as cities burn.
Having a lockdown continue was a reasonable opinion in March, it is not in June.
The shutdown is over.
You're a performative drunkard, half your posts are about drinking or having too much to drink.
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WTF that even mean?
You're a performative drunkard, half your posts are about drinking or having too much to drink.
I'd rather me drunk than you sober because you are one miserable person.
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In comment 14913646 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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WTF that even mean?
You're a performative drunkard, half your posts are about drinking or having too much to drink.
I'd rather me drunk than you sober because you are one miserable person.
Glad you were able to look up from your bag of franzia long enough to cut to me to the bone like this.
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In comment 14913652 Nitro said:
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In comment 14913646 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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WTF that even mean?
You're a performative drunkard, half your posts are about drinking or having too much to drink.
I'd rather me drunk than you sober because you are one miserable person.
Glad you were able to look up from your bag of franzia long enough to cut to me to the bone like this.
Glad you were able to show your true character by mocking Sonic Youth for not being currently employed, along with 41 million Americans. You're a real winner pal. Pat yourself on the back.
Nah, I'm done - I actually don't come here to be nasty, this place brings it out of me. Probably part of the reason I spend far less time here. Have a nice Saturday everyone.
just trying to fit in.
These riots are ending the lockdown, close the thread.
They won’t end the lockdown but where is the outrage over the lack of social distancing during this? I don’t go to church but if I had wanted to I was told I was risking the health of everyone.
But I guess we need equivalency in everything...
My wife was reading me this last night. The funny thing is a site I visit had discussed this in early February, and some there have been saying ventilator’s or being but on one is almost a death sentence. Problem is with the site is extremely sketchy,lots of right wingers racists, but it was more of a conspiracy site originally. Lots of crazy things posted there and almost impossible to know what to believe but the crazies are way ahead of everyone - covid was discussed in December and early January.
Anyway, the interesting part of this is that this was being discussed in January/ February. This information was coming from some doctor or medical analyst and relayed.Now here we are in late May and it is just becoming a mainstream idea. It just seems strange to me how slow and disconnected our science is especially when faced with something like this. Now I am not saying that this article is all truth but where did the months go from where I first read about this to now and why wasn’t the idea pursued more intensely then?
But I guess we need equivalency in everything...
There has been some and I have seen some mayors urge people to practice it but overall the guidelines and restrictions are being broken severely. People’s businesses were shut down for less, a man was harassed by the police for playing in the park with his daughter, and so on.
Quote:
gold...
Nah, I'm done - I actually don't come here to be nasty, this place brings it out of me. Probably part of the reason I spend far less time here. Have a nice Saturday everyone.
Quote:
gold...
Nah, I'm done - I actually don't come here to be nasty, this place brings it out of me. Probably part of the reason I spend far less time here. Have a nice Saturday everyone.
Really your handle has your occupation as troll? It’s pretty clear that’s all you do here. Your moms basement in CA must be a terrible place to be locked down in. No wonder your so pissed.
The Weather Channel has a nice dropdown that is updated daily and actually shows percentage changes through the week(by county btw), but still shows all data as a total.
The Weather Channel has a nice dropdown that is updated daily and actually shows percentage changes through the week(by county btw), but still shows all data as a total.
This Covid Tracking Project data seems to be the aggregator for most of source data for a lot of the charts experts share regularly. This link takes you to the US day by day numbers and you can also navigate to view states individually. They also link back to where each state is sourcing the data, so while I think there are probably some state by state inconsistencies this would seem to be the most scrubbed data.
It looks like we've plateaued to steadily gaining about 20k cases per day since the start of May with deaths now around 1k per day.
https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily - ( New Window )
It looks like we've plateaued to steadily gaining about 20k cases per day since the start of May with deaths now around 1k per day. https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily - ( New Window ) [/quote]
Thanks
BBI’s insufferable gaggle of vacuous Fox brainwashed RW dullards is well known. Nitro is not among them.
The message is in part that much of the American economy should be open by now. Impatience is at this point justified. Impatience that is no doubt contributing to the restive and now burgeoning masses marching in our cities.
I find myself mildly nauseous at even the mere appearance of being in accord with the most spectacularly disastrous conman & fraud any of us will have the fetid displeasure of beholding in our lifetimes, but it is long past time for the economic gears to once again churn.
• Continued aggressive caution among the most vulnerable (elderly living, eg)
• Federally subsidized testing at any major pharmacy or urgent care center.
• A cultural acceptance – especially among cult members – of routine PPE wearing (yup, we’re the mask people now). Some leadership among a prominent cult leader would be helpful in this area. The bar has regrettably been lowered so profoundly that said basic leadership is, astonishingly, too much to expect.
• The understanding that a calculated risk moving forward is both a reality, but also very often a less bad option than the alternative (a lasting depression with its own concomitant human misery, in the context of 3-7 $T deficits).
Obviously I do not echo anything said about your personal job search and wish you the best of luck there.
Link - ( New Window )
Nice site. Lots of different data tracking. Thanks RM
Which has been the viewpoint of some on the economic committees for a few weeks.
I expect there's going to be some amount of trial and error and evolving guidance, but having a standardized initial set of recommendations seems like an area we are falling short in. I would personally think daily temp checks at dropoff (which the cdc seems to recommend?) and focus on outdoor activities seem sensible.
I expect there's going to be some amount of trial and error and evolving guidance, but having a standardized initial set of recommendations seems like an area we are falling short in. I would personally think daily temp checks at dropoff (which the cdc seems to recommend?) and focus on outdoor activities seem sensible.
I've heard that the LA area is a mess because there's little communication between the different "regional" leaders.
I don't know why, but I know that in the Central Valley and Central Coast, they have been taking a lot of bottom-up advice, and have used that to advocate for more uniform results. Sucks.
I am more than happy to continue wearing my mask and social distancing, but I am also wanting things to slowly open up. Sadly, if you give and inch, people take a mile. The old idiom of “this is why we can’t have nice things” hold true no matter where you are in this pandemic.
I think the speed with which some of the counties gained approval for re-opening surprised Garcetti and regional leaders.
Not sure why, but Newsome really listened to a lot of the more rural (more impoverished) counties, and really changed the guidelines quickly.
I am more than happy to continue wearing my mask and social distancing, but I am also wanting things to slowly open up. Sadly, if you give and inch, people take a mile. The old idiom of “this is why we can’t have nice things” hold true no matter where you are in this pandemic.
+1.
I've been eyeing that tracker too.
A couple interesting things to keep an eye on:
1. Texas seems to have a far lower number of deaths per infection rate than other states. Srticter guidelines as to what goes on the death certificate as COD?
2. Arizona pretty much opened the state to business as usual around May 15. Kids bar scene looked like the Ozarks last weekend. Daily new infection rate seems to have gone up from the 400-500 range to the 800 range range this past week. Harbinger of bad things to come?
Data from Johns Hopkins Dashboard
May 18th - May 30th, 2020
NYS
18-May 4.8%
19-May 5.1%
20-May 4.0%
21-May 4.2%
22-May 3.7%
23-May 3.5%
24-May 3.3%
25-May 3.2%
26-May 3.1%
27-May 3.0%
28-May 2.7%
29-May 2.3%
30-May 2.2%
U.S. (less NY)
18-May 5.8%
19-May 5.3%
20-May 5.4%
21-May 6.5%
22-May 6.5%
23-May 6.5%
24-May 5.8%
25-May 4.4%
26-May 5.7%
27-May 7.1%
28-May 6.1%
29-May 5.3%
30-May 6.5%
As far a schools, I don't know whats been decided. Normally the schools in the Bay Area and I think L.A. open up mid August. Newsom has said he wants to open them in July, but I don't know if any concrete action has been taken.
this could be great news but of course virus could come back in fall winter
New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says - ( New Window )
However, discussions within the thread seem to have steered away from the original purpose and have become more partisan in nature. This has present problems for the moderating team.
Moving forward, we are going to cease allowing non-sports-related COVID discussions on BBI. We will lock this thread and it will eventually be archived since so much work went into it.
I thank you for your understanding and cooperation on this matter.