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NFT: Stocks?

Treepeople : 3/22/2020 9:53 am
I'll start with the following, I am the GREENEST of investors.

Anyone care to offer up their opinion on the future of the Stock Market? Not much else going on!
For those of you have some cash available, this sure appears to be a time to move into stocks, just as in 08'/09'.I'll offer up the following.

-Live Nation Enterainment isn't going anywhere fast in this climate, it is beaten down at $33.97, has cash on hand, 1.7B.

-PP& L at $19.67 is a very safe place to buy, also has a nice dividend, net income last year 1.5-1.7B.

-Constellation Brands at $119.70 took a big beating through Corona beer for christ sakes.

-Delta Air at $21.35, "to big to fail"? Bailout coming??

-Lyft, almost pulled the trigger at $15 bucks, I think it'll come back to me though. Cash on hand 2.8B

-I'll offer up a something I like for a longer investment (5 years+), this treatment method hasn't been approved as of yet. The use of psychedelics to treat anxiety, depression, PTSD,tobacco & alcohol addiction and opiods in a "controled setting". The stock MindMed can currently be had for a $1.00.
Anyone have any thoughts on stocks?

Stocks of interest?

Stocks to stay clear of?
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MS,  
Treepeople : 3/22/2020 12:45 pm : link
thank you, my wife and I have been in Fidelity, in fact, she just rolled over one of her 401k's from a previous job. She had Fidelity invest it when the market was hovering around 29,000.
How's that for timing...frickin frack. :)
if you want a comparison  
torrey : 3/22/2020 12:46 pm : link
You have to go back to 1957, when there was another virus infection which swept the country. See what the market did and when the virus contagion stopped.

If you think we're near the bottom, invest a little bit of your cash now, and scale in as the market starts to recover. There will be plenty of opportunities to make money. I am concentrating on cash flow now, while building up a shopping list of great companies which are at great prices, through no fault of their own .
RE: This works for me  
Treepeople : 3/22/2020 12:56 pm : link
In comment 14845841 Marty in Albany said:
Quote:


Marty, yes for sure...some that is, right now is a nice time to make some money Marty.
Now as you suggested, we still keep money stashed in a "safe" place, not under the mattress though.
i agree it's so difficult to time the market, that's why  
markky : 3/22/2020 1:00 pm : link
it's best to have a long term view. my feeling is we haven't hit a bottom (some companies Q2 and even Q3 #s will be awful - especially companies with enterprise sales cycles). but i don't let that influence my actions - i'm a long term investor not a trader.

a couple of things I did do in 2009 that worked out were:

- paid attention to what Buffet invested in. that was I was still buying individual stocks. although he was buying with preferences and options, his purchases did well, like AMEX and GE. (although they're getting killed now).

- i "harvested" capital losses. by this i mean selling things that were underwater, using the losses to offset future capital gains distributions. the losses for some things were so great in that timeframe that it made a difference in my tax bill going forward. when i did sell things that were underwater i immediate reinvested the proceeds instead of letting the money sit on the sideline. that way i wouldn't miss a run up. so i wasn't trying to time the market, i was just managing my tax liability.
RE: RE: Crap,  
Treepeople : 3/22/2020 1:03 pm : link
In comment 14845908 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 14845678 Treepeople said:


Quote:


forgot to add Disney, $85.98. They sure as hell aren't going anywhere.






























































*Above I hit submit rather than preview, how does one edit?*



Disney hasn't been this low since early 2014. Thats almost 6 years of growing revenues. When we get through this suddenly their revenues will get back to where they were (on a qtr or two out basis) and this stock will go back up 40%.


It very well may take a year or more to get back there Paterson, that fine for us. We're willing to wait for it.
I am hoping we bottom 3rd quarter and regain a lot of it back  
Giant John : 3/22/2020 1:05 pm : link
In 4th quarter.
Yeah I tried to time this  
Payasdaddy : 3/22/2020 1:06 pm : link
Didn’t work out great. Thought it was a bottom on big oil
Got crushed
Been buying a little Disney and nvidia but still down 20% on those
Even if if they all go down another 20-30% ( yes it’s possible but no clue if likely), if u have have a3-5 yr time horizon, I think Apple, Disney, nvdia dominate there sector. Disney has so much more than theme park
So I figure as long as we are both working, dollar cost averaging with a around 5.5 k a month getting invested
Maybe 5-10 k cash piled into taxable acct at some point
But I want to have a lot of liquidity in case this drags out into a1930’s type depression. I don’t see a ton of parallels. It’s rough worrying about your health and watching 100’s of thousands disappear in 401k. Heavily in stocks cause we are ten plus yrs away from retirement. Probably around 80/20. If we melt down 20% more, maybe go 100% stock and ride it for a hopefully big recovery some time this decade, hopefully first half
Question  
GruningsOnTheHill : 3/22/2020 1:41 pm : link
I am not a financial maven: I'm invested in Fidelity mutual funds & various blue chip stocks that pay dividends. I'm down @25% over these past few weeks, and I find myself in that losing gambler's position where every day I'm thinking, "If only I pulled out and went to cash yesterday." From my decidedly non-professional view, I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel, and it doesn't seem the market will turn around until this covid-19 stabilizes: as a few of you above have noted, we may be a long way from the bottom.

Do I swallow hard and go to cash tomorrow?
Don’t go to cash  
Payasdaddy : 3/22/2020 1:47 pm : link
Your just gambling
If u need to go more cash in total allocation, sure
If u have are buying multiple times in 401k per month, just keep buying
Maybe holding are noses for the rest of yr and not reacting is best
What’s your timeline until u tap into 401k?
If it’s more than 10 yrs , just hold the course
I have already changed my retirement projection. Factored in 50% drop
And slow U shaped recovery over the next decade
Question (Pt 2)  
GruningsOnTheHill : 3/22/2020 1:49 pm : link
To add on, a more seasoned investor at work advises, "You are not relying on this money for income--the market will eventually rebound. Just leave it alone, and realize you still own the same shares of Acme Batman Costumes as you did a month ago; they just aren't worth quite as much today. They will come back." Another friend of mine has pulled everything out and is shorting the market, which seems like pure gambling and scares the hell out of me.

Do those of you amongst us in finance see the Dow dropping to 10,000?
I went 95% cash Thursday  
Paulie Walnuts : 3/22/2020 1:53 pm : link
Still buying equities, small scale buying P&G
Holding Iron mountain, ATT, FB.. looking at APPL again just holding I want to retire in 5 years, my target was 4 a month ago.. lol. Looking at 3rd quarter for a positive .. so much money being pumped in I'm no expert
Apple has a boatload of cash  
Payasdaddy : 3/22/2020 2:21 pm : link
Won’t need government bailouts. Probably will buyback own stock
Will have the opportunity to buy some additional companies or technologies at fire sale prices
It may go under $200 still
But can’t think of many I rather own over next decade. Unless consumers screwed forever
The most frustrating thing...  
BamaBlue : 3/22/2020 2:57 pm : link
About investing is the volume of contradictory information. You can easily find credible sources that justify or refute anything you think you know. The only sure thing is to look for long term trends and exercise patience.

Where I used to take a week to week outlook, I’m adjusting to 3 month horizons. The day to day and week to week approach is much too volatile and unpredictable. Thankfully, I got my 401K in a safe parking spot with only a 5% hit...
Might seem obvious  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 3/22/2020 3:30 pm : link
but aren't there any plays on volatility?

Funny thing to consider, our economy 5 years ago was so poorly run it was similar to our economy today + a global economic strangling pandemic.
stocks dropped over 50% in 2008-09  
BigBlueNH : 3/22/2020 3:36 pm : link
whereas now the s&p is off about 32%. Plus, large sectors of the economy didn't come to a halt back in 08-09. That's why I think the market has more to fall. Obviously, just a hunch. Also, after the cost of the coming stimulus and large decrease in tax revenues coming in, the federal debt as a % of GDP will be FAR higher than it has ever been, which may spook the markets and/or lead to a forced cut in gov't spending which will retard the strength of the expected recovery. (Check out a historical chart of debt as % of GDP - it is scary).
RE: The most frustrating thing...  
JB_in_DC : 3/22/2020 3:41 pm : link
In comment 14846087 BamaBlue said:
Quote:
Where I used to take a week to week outlook, I’m adjusting to 3 month horizons. The day to day and week to week approach is much too volatile and unpredictable. Thankfully, I got my 401K in a safe parking spot with only a 5% hit...


Wow - that's great. This is my first serious downturn as a professional and investor - and i need to get ready to move IRA/401K for future disasters. For now I'm riding it out, but I have 30 years to go before retirement.

If u keep your job  
Payasdaddy : 3/22/2020 5:08 pm : link
It may be a blessing if u have 30 yrs of dollar cost averaging to do.
Totally counter intuitive but a great time to buy if a long term holder
I think 2 nd half of yr things start turning around. But more U shaped thanV shaped
I was told "hold ... you can't time the market ...  
Csonka : 3/22/2020 5:16 pm : link
it'll bounce back" 3 weeks ago.
I think "hold under any circumstances" is horrible advice.

If you believe all the bad news is already priced in, then hold. I don't. I think the public is actually being overly optimistic. People seem to think we're going back to normal soon. Like this will be gone in a month.

The current efforts aren't going to kill the virus. We're just trying to delay people from overloading the hospitals all at once. Some experts are saying pretty much everyone will get this. Most will recover of course, but we're getting it. And I'm not even sure we're confident that it's seasonal. Or that it won't mutate.
bear  
giantfan2000 : 3/22/2020 5:16 pm : link
Please remember that most investors lose money trying to predict the bottom and then jumping in thinking the worse is over

I think we have not even begun

I am not even going start to looking at any long plays until Dow hits 15,287
which is 61.8 % fib retracesment from high

I could see use getting to 12,000 on the dow ..which is 78.6% Fib retracement
we are in new territory ...  
giantfan2000 : 3/22/2020 5:24 pm : link
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product.
Fed says jobless rate to soar to 30% - ( New Window )
Futures are limit down again,  
barens : 3/22/2020 6:35 pm : link
yikes.
RE: Futures are limit down again,  
GFAN52 : 3/22/2020 6:47 pm : link
In comment 14846356 barens said:
Quote:
yikes.


Bottom out around 15-17,000 on the DOW is my guess.
I'm 18 months from retirement  
dannysection 313 : 3/22/2020 9:31 pm : link
Thankfully I was already 60% money market and fixed income.

But, my stocks have taken a good hit, of course. My money guy, at Goldman, talked me out of cashing out a portion of my stocks three weeks ago, after we had agreed to cash in 50%.

Wish I had followed my gut and still tempted to go that route....

I know getting back in is like catching a falling knife (how my 30 year old son who was at Blackstone for five years describes it), but it seems to me we'll all know when things are getting turned around. Jobs, unemployment rates, the front page of the paper, FB, etc., all show the mood and reality of the economy.

But even a lay person like me knows the market will drop further...yes, it will go back up, but how much will it rebound in 18 months when I am living totally off my investments? I was only needing a 4% return if all had held steady.

The 60 minute interview tonight with president of the Minneapolis district of the fed didn't exactly inspire my confidence.
Wow... Crude Oil  
BamaBlue : 3/23/2020 7:28 am : link
is down to a little more than $22 a barrel and still dropping. Anecdotally, I got gas this weekend for $1.79 a gallon. With the decrease in demand, the oil rebound is a long way off.
Not here,  
Treepeople : 3/23/2020 7:41 am : link
In good ole Pennsiltucky, we're at $2.45.
RE: Not here,  
Diver_Down : 3/23/2020 7:50 am : link
In comment 14846680 Treepeople said:
Quote:
In good ole Pennsiltucky, we're at $2.45.


The promise of cheap gas and how it would be a tremendous benefit to Americans is another fairy tale. I live in Florida along the First Coast. In the Jax area, it is $1.79/gallon. Yet, in my area (St. Augustine), it is $2.15/gallon. Something is wrong to have a 35 cent discrepancy over a distance of 20 miles.
For experts out there  
GMEN46 : 3/23/2020 7:54 am : link
How much can this $1.5 trillion-$2 trillion plan actually help? Aren’t we just delaying the inevitable?
RE: For experts out there  
BamaBlue : 3/23/2020 7:58 am : link
In comment 14846683 GMEN46 said:
Quote:
How much can this $1.5 trillion-$2 trillion plan actually help? Aren’t we just delaying the inevitable?


I'm no expert, but it's not so much about how much money, it's important where the money goes. I have mixed feelings about the Government choosing winners and losers in business, but I do think stimulus for business is necessary. As much as I'd like to have money in my pocket, I don't think a peanut butter spread of money to everyone is wise...
RE: Futures are limit down again,  
barens : 3/23/2020 8:57 am : link
In comment 14846356 barens said:
Quote:
yikes.


Well, that were limit down, now the Fed announced they are going to calm corporate debt, and now we are in the green. We'll see how long that lasts.
Volitility abounds...  
BamaBlue : 3/23/2020 9:18 am : link
futures are now up almost 3%. I think the market has baked-in the Senate approval of the stimulus. If that agreement starts to go south (likely), there will be another knee-jerk in the market.

Crude oil is rising, up about 2.5%... that has been a recent bell weather and a good sign for the markets.
Dammit  
GruningsOnTheHill : 3/23/2020 12:02 pm : link
Another day I’m looking at dropping a huge chunk of change while hoping for good news (stimulus package today), and another day I’m kicking myself for not having sold off at last close.
RE:  
Mr. Bungle : 3/23/2020 12:23 pm : link
In comment 14846268 Csonka said:
Quote:
I think "hold under any circumstances" is horrible advice.

That advice is always contingent on holding long-term. It's always based on how soon you'll need the money that you have in the equities market. If it's money that you'll need soon, it shouldn't have been in equities anyway. If it's money you won't need for at least the next several years, holding is still good advice. Even if holding for the next few years doesn't return to your portfolio's highs, well...welcome to the stock market. If that kind of volatility isn't for you, then again, you shouldn't be in equities to begin with, because that's stocks being stocks.
IMHO,  
Treepeople : 3/25/2020 8:11 am : link
this market hasn't seen the bottom as of yet, nice bounce yesterday, as well as a signed stimulus package coming this week?


-Thoughts anyone?

-Anyone looking for a bottom sometime in April?

-Is this that "dead cat bounce" that some of you alluded to earlier in this thread?
RE: IMHO,  
Heisenberg : 3/25/2020 8:54 am : link
In comment 14849012 Treepeople said:
Quote:
this market hasn't seen the bottom as of yet, nice bounce yesterday, as well as a signed stimulus package coming this week?


-Thoughts anyone?

-Anyone looking for a bottom sometime in April?

-Is this that "dead cat bounce" that some of you alluded to earlier in this thread?


We are at the beginning of this downturn. We'll have a crazy jobless claim report coming. And the economy in many areas will be shut down as the virus crunch in hospitals is not yet peaking or close. There's a lot of bad news coming that will probably offset some excitement from the deal being reached.
the upcoming jobs report is  
giants#1 : 3/25/2020 9:11 am : link
likely priced in. I think I've seen expectations of around 2.5M in losses, so any movement of the market with respect to the jobs report would be relative to that number. If losses are *only* 2M, it would be considered "good news" (to the markets) and you might get a bump, but if the #s come in worse than 2.5M then you'll see a further decline.

RE: the upcoming jobs report is  
Heisenberg : 3/25/2020 9:43 am : link
In comment 14849042 giants#1 said:
Quote:
likely priced in. I think I've seen expectations of around 2.5M in losses, so any movement of the market with respect to the jobs report would be relative to that number. If losses are *only* 2M, it would be considered "good news" (to the markets) and you might get a bump, but if the #s come in worse than 2.5M then you'll see a further decline.


Maybe. This market seems particularly volatile and emotional. Seeing that number tomorrow could rattle some folks. The number will be unprecedented. We'll see tomorrow. I will be ready to buy a few things if it drops.
This is a very tough market for speculation. If there's good news on  
Ira : 3/25/2020 12:47 pm : link
a coronavirus vaccine it could shoot up. If there's bad news about more illness and death it could head down. I bought a couple of things that were heavily discounted. Now, I'm sitting tight.
This thread will probably be deleted  
ArtVandelay : 3/25/2020 12:56 pm : link
before we ever find out who was right.

I thought stocks were highly over-valued before the virus. It will most likely fall a lot more (DOW 14-15K?). When this is finally over it may come back to around 22-23K then plateau for a while after that.
RE: This is a very tough market for speculation. If there's good news on  
Eric on Li : 3/25/2020 1:23 pm : link
In comment 14849326 Ira said:
Quote:
a coronavirus vaccine it could shoot up. If there's bad news about more illness and death it could head down. I bought a couple of things that were heavily discounted. Now, I'm sitting tight.


same. I bought some boeing i'm considering selling just bc the gains are so big right now, but will probably just hold.
As always,  
Mr. Bungle : 3/25/2020 1:29 pm : link
if you're approaching the stock market like a table at a casino, expect the stock market to treat you the same way a casino table would.
Pick a point you are willing to accept....  
Kev in Cali : 3/25/2020 6:13 pm : link
Make the decision to execute, then sit back and enjoy the ride. I made my move a little early, missed out on a some, but it was better than not sitting back at all.....

The show ain't over yet, so just hang in there all!
3.3M new unemployment claims  
Heisenberg : 3/26/2020 8:40 am : link
wow.
Futures are down  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 3/26/2020 8:46 am : link
What's also telling is a number of names in the past couple of days have been downgraded to junk - Ford being the latest.

the primary IG market has finally opened and it's only the highest of quality, defensive stocks getting love: Deere, Pfizer, ADM for example.
RE: the upcoming jobs report is  
Treepeople : 3/26/2020 8:48 am : link
In comment 14849042 giants#1 said:
Quote:
likely priced in. I think I've seen expectations of around 2.5M in losses, so any movement of the market with respect to the jobs report would be relative to that number. If losses are *only* 2M, it would be considered "good news" (to the markets) and you might get a bump, but if the #s come in worse than 2.5M then you'll see a further decline.


Thank you giants#1, the report may well be 3.5-4.0 million?
25 years of jobless claims  
Heisenberg : 3/26/2020 8:57 am : link
Its almost as if  
Treepeople : 3/26/2020 12:11 pm : link
the markets are telling the Kung Flu virus to f-off, your dead to me.
RE: Its almost as if  
Heisenberg : 3/26/2020 12:21 pm : link
In comment 14850356 Treepeople said:
Quote:
the markets are telling the Kung Flu virus to f-off, your dead to me.


And that they like 2 Trillion being put into the economy.
RE: RE: Not here,  
Zeke's Alibi : 3/26/2020 12:54 pm : link
In comment 14846682 Diver_Down said:
Quote:
In comment 14846680 Treepeople said:


Quote:


In good ole Pennsiltucky, we're at $2.45.



The promise of cheap gas and how it would be a tremendous benefit to Americans is another fairy tale. I live in Florida along the First Coast. In the Jax area, it is $1.79/gallon. Yet, in my area (St. Augustine), it is $2.15/gallon. Something is wrong to have a 35 cent discrepancy over a distance of 20 miles.


Prices of gas generally lags as stations compete with each other.
RE: RE: Its almost as if  
Treepeople : 3/26/2020 1:19 pm : link
In comment 14850366 Heisenberg said:
Quote:
In comment 14850356 Treepeople said:


Quote:


the markets are telling the Kung Flu virus to f-off, your dead to me.



And that they like 2 Trillion being put into the economy.





Heis, I think the bargain-barge has sailed
RE: RE: RE: Not here,  
Treepeople : 3/26/2020 1:25 pm : link
In comment 14850404 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14846682 Diver_Down said:


Quote:


In comment 14846680 Treepeople said:


Quote:


In good ole Pennsiltucky, we're at $2.45.



The promise of cheap gas and how it would be a tremendous benefit to Americans is another fairy tale. I live in Florida along the First Coast. In the Jax area, it is $1.79/gallon. Yet, in my area (St. Augustine), it is $2.15/gallon. Something is wrong to have a 35 cent discrepancy over a distance of 20 miles.



Prices of gas generally lags as stations compete with each other.


Zeke, oh they're competing alright, like snails in a 400m race around this area. Of course, we have very high gas taxes here in Pa.
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