I'll start with the following, I am the GREENEST of investors.
Anyone care to offer up their opinion on the future of the Stock Market? Not much else going on!
For those of you have some cash available, this sure appears to be a time to move into stocks, just as in 08'/09'.I'll offer up the following.
-Live Nation Enterainment isn't going anywhere fast in this climate, it is beaten down at $33.97, has cash on hand, 1.7B.
-PP& L at $19.67 is a very safe place to buy, also has a nice dividend, net income last year 1.5-1.7B.
-Constellation Brands at $119.70 took a big beating through Corona beer for christ sakes.
-Delta Air at $21.35, "to big to fail"? Bailout coming??
-Lyft, almost pulled the trigger at $15 bucks, I think it'll come back to me though. Cash on hand 2.8B
-I'll offer up a something I like for a longer investment (5 years+), this treatment method hasn't been approved as of yet. The use of psychedelics to treat anxiety, depression, PTSD,tobacco & alcohol addiction and opiods in a "controled setting". The stock MindMed can currently be had for a $1.00.
Anyone have any thoughts on stocks?
Stocks of interest?
Stocks to stay clear of?
*Above I hit submit rather than preview, how does one edit?*
Here is my uninformed opinion/view:
(1) If you have some cash that you don't need for several years, then purchasing equities now MAY not be a bad idea;
(2) Certainly they are cheaper than just a couple of weeks ago;
(3) That said, it is quite possible IMO that we will continue to see dramatic declines in all of the indices... and I do mean dramatic;
(4) Ergo, you may want to at least consider moving your cash into equities on a somewhat gradual basis;
(5) And, finally, I believe it is more prudent in the long term to systematically invest in low cost index stock funds from companies such as Vanguard and Fidelity.
The problem is that there have been several floors and we're in uncharted black swan territory. We're past the stage of decline and dead cat bounce. This is a wild ride with dramatic swings with a few high ups and more downward movement.
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predict the bottom of this fall. Date and Dollar Value.
The problem is that there have been several floors and we're in uncharted black swan territory. We're past the stage of decline and dead cat bounce. This is a wild ride with dramatic swings with a few high ups and more downward movement.
Sobering thought....
I really like MU and NVDA. Tech companies that have huge competitive advantages, are necessary in our tech society, and whose stock was at least 50% higher before
The market usually leads because people are looking ahead, thats why its down now. Actually this qtrs earning won't be awful, it will be the guidance for next qtr that the market is anticipating. Anyway down 30+% is big, 2009 wasn't much more. At a certain point the selling is done. Plus the minute we get some positives the market will turn, again anticipating 3-6 months out. That is why timing these things is impossible. Also there are always doom/gloomers there. Remember the feeling was the same in 2009, 1987, etc. Different scenario, same we're dead feeling. It will rebound again
My intuition tells me the bottom is still to be determined, and mostly because the size and scope of the government's role is a huge TBD.
So I think cash is indeed king. If you want action, I would say the grocery retail and delivery spaces wouldn't be too bad...
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Disney hasn't been this low since early 2014. Thats almost 6 years of growing revenues. When we get through this suddenly their revenues will get back to where they were (on a qtr or two out basis) and this stock will go back up 40%.
How's that for timing...frickin frack. :)
If you think we're near the bottom, invest a little bit of your cash now, and scale in as the market starts to recover. There will be plenty of opportunities to make money. I am concentrating on cash flow now, while building up a shopping list of great companies which are at great prices, through no fault of their own .
Marty, yes for sure...some that is, right now is a nice time to make some money Marty.
Now as you suggested, we still keep money stashed in a "safe" place, not under the mattress though.
a couple of things I did do in 2009 that worked out were:
- paid attention to what Buffet invested in. that was I was still buying individual stocks. although he was buying with preferences and options, his purchases did well, like AMEX and GE. (although they're getting killed now).
- i "harvested" capital losses. by this i mean selling things that were underwater, using the losses to offset future capital gains distributions. the losses for some things were so great in that timeframe that it made a difference in my tax bill going forward. when i did sell things that were underwater i immediate reinvested the proceeds instead of letting the money sit on the sideline. that way i wouldn't miss a run up. so i wasn't trying to time the market, i was just managing my tax liability.
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forgot to add Disney, $85.98. They sure as hell aren't going anywhere.
*Above I hit submit rather than preview, how does one edit?*
Disney hasn't been this low since early 2014. Thats almost 6 years of growing revenues. When we get through this suddenly their revenues will get back to where they were (on a qtr or two out basis) and this stock will go back up 40%.
It very well may take a year or more to get back there Paterson, that fine for us. We're willing to wait for it.
Got crushed
Been buying a little Disney and nvidia but still down 20% on those
Even if if they all go down another 20-30% ( yes it’s possible but no clue if likely), if u have have a3-5 yr time horizon, I think Apple, Disney, nvdia dominate there sector. Disney has so much more than theme park
So I figure as long as we are both working, dollar cost averaging with a around 5.5 k a month getting invested
Maybe 5-10 k cash piled into taxable acct at some point
But I want to have a lot of liquidity in case this drags out into a1930’s type depression. I don’t see a ton of parallels. It’s rough worrying about your health and watching 100’s of thousands disappear in 401k. Heavily in stocks cause we are ten plus yrs away from retirement. Probably around 80/20. If we melt down 20% more, maybe go 100% stock and ride it for a hopefully big recovery some time this decade, hopefully first half
Do I swallow hard and go to cash tomorrow?
If u need to go more cash in total allocation, sure
If u have are buying multiple times in 401k per month, just keep buying
Maybe holding are noses for the rest of yr and not reacting is best
What’s your timeline until u tap into 401k?
If it’s more than 10 yrs , just hold the course
I have already changed my retirement projection. Factored in 50% drop
And slow U shaped recovery over the next decade
Do those of you amongst us in finance see the Dow dropping to 10,000?
Holding Iron mountain, ATT, FB.. looking at APPL again just holding I want to retire in 5 years, my target was 4 a month ago.. lol. Looking at 3rd quarter for a positive .. so much money being pumped in I'm no expert
Will have the opportunity to buy some additional companies or technologies at fire sale prices
It may go under $200 still
But can’t think of many I rather own over next decade. Unless consumers screwed forever
Where I used to take a week to week outlook, I’m adjusting to 3 month horizons. The day to day and week to week approach is much too volatile and unpredictable. Thankfully, I got my 401K in a safe parking spot with only a 5% hit...
Funny thing to consider, our economy 5 years ago was so poorly run it was similar to our economy today + a global economic strangling pandemic.
Wow - that's great. This is my first serious downturn as a professional and investor - and i need to get ready to move IRA/401K for future disasters. For now I'm riding it out, but I have 30 years to go before retirement.
Totally counter intuitive but a great time to buy if a long term holder
I think 2 nd half of yr things start turning around. But more U shaped thanV shaped
I think "hold under any circumstances" is horrible advice.
If you believe all the bad news is already priced in, then hold. I don't. I think the public is actually being overly optimistic. People seem to think we're going back to normal soon. Like this will be gone in a month.
The current efforts aren't going to kill the virus. We're just trying to delay people from overloading the hospitals all at once. Some experts are saying pretty much everyone will get this. Most will recover of course, but we're getting it. And I'm not even sure we're confident that it's seasonal. Or that it won't mutate.
I think we have not even begun
I am not even going start to looking at any long plays until Dow hits 15,287
which is 61.8 % fib retracesment from high
I could see use getting to 12,000 on the dow ..which is 78.6% Fib retracement
Fed says jobless rate to soar to 30% - ( New Window )
Bottom out around 15-17,000 on the DOW is my guess.
But, my stocks have taken a good hit, of course. My money guy, at Goldman, talked me out of cashing out a portion of my stocks three weeks ago, after we had agreed to cash in 50%.
Wish I had followed my gut and still tempted to go that route....
I know getting back in is like catching a falling knife (how my 30 year old son who was at Blackstone for five years describes it), but it seems to me we'll all know when things are getting turned around. Jobs, unemployment rates, the front page of the paper, FB, etc., all show the mood and reality of the economy.
But even a lay person like me knows the market will drop further...yes, it will go back up, but how much will it rebound in 18 months when I am living totally off my investments? I was only needing a 4% return if all had held steady.
The 60 minute interview tonight with president of the Minneapolis district of the fed didn't exactly inspire my confidence.
The promise of cheap gas and how it would be a tremendous benefit to Americans is another fairy tale. I live in Florida along the First Coast. In the Jax area, it is $1.79/gallon. Yet, in my area (St. Augustine), it is $2.15/gallon. Something is wrong to have a 35 cent discrepancy over a distance of 20 miles.
I'm no expert, but it's not so much about how much money, it's important where the money goes. I have mixed feelings about the Government choosing winners and losers in business, but I do think stimulus for business is necessary. As much as I'd like to have money in my pocket, I don't think a peanut butter spread of money to everyone is wise...
Well, that were limit down, now the Fed announced they are going to calm corporate debt, and now we are in the green. We'll see how long that lasts.
Crude oil is rising, up about 2.5%... that has been a recent bell weather and a good sign for the markets.
That advice is always contingent on holding long-term. It's always based on how soon you'll need the money that you have in the equities market. If it's money that you'll need soon, it shouldn't have been in equities anyway. If it's money you won't need for at least the next several years, holding is still good advice. Even if holding for the next few years doesn't return to your portfolio's highs, well...welcome to the stock market. If that kind of volatility isn't for you, then again, you shouldn't be in equities to begin with, because that's stocks being stocks.
-Thoughts anyone?
-Anyone looking for a bottom sometime in April?
-Is this that "dead cat bounce" that some of you alluded to earlier in this thread?
-Thoughts anyone?
-Anyone looking for a bottom sometime in April?
-Is this that "dead cat bounce" that some of you alluded to earlier in this thread?
We are at the beginning of this downturn. We'll have a crazy jobless claim report coming. And the economy in many areas will be shut down as the virus crunch in hospitals is not yet peaking or close. There's a lot of bad news coming that will probably offset some excitement from the deal being reached.