timeouts in game. Holding onto 3 timeouts against the Saints at the end of the half TWO years ago. No folly in pointing that out.
No folly in pointing out allocating steep assets to an RB position especially when your team isn't ready to compete is not a smart thing to do.
My point was never that they were at the bottom. But the fact that they were in New York and not leveraging that to be on the cutting edge was negligent.
You can twist it however you like, that's what you love to do. But the fact is I really know advanced predictive systems, and you really don't. And I have no more time for this.
Smart businesses in modern times would be using feedback from BBI to gauge customer sentiment, just like you can use Twitter to gauge customer/fan sentiment. This board is better gauge then any social media platform because it is full of the NY Giants core demographics.
It’s not going to drive everything, such as the draft picks or player personnel decisions (though professional teams use gauges how much money a team will make by signing big FA players ie Phillies signing Harper was money driven data analysis), but they certainly factor fan sentiment into some of the decision making that they do.
The difference is that at the end of the day, just about anyone who spends their time posting on BBI is as loyal as fans get. The fans here are not at risk of rooting for another football team or picking up golf on Sundays instead. They're not going anywhere so the sentiment matters less than customer sentiment for an airline or a brand on Twitter where there are other very plausible options.
There are mostly assumptions that drive the analysis. Slight differences creates huge variability in outcomes.
I know we don’t lag, but we have some different assumptions that may or may not be applicable in the long term.
Having someone like Ty Siam is a slam dunk. He’s very good.
For those complaining about the Giants being behind the times, you should pay close attention to what Kicker says on the subject. If you've followed his posts on the Covid-19 thread, you'll see that he's quite qualified to opine on this subject.
RE: Recall I started this because the Giants didn't know how to use
timeouts in game. Holding onto 3 timeouts against the Saints at the end of the half TWO years ago. No folly in pointing that out.
Shanahan did the exact same thing in the Super Bowl. In fact it likely cost them the game. Are you blaming their lack of analytics experts? Of course not. Because it wasn’t the Giants.
The 49ers are roundly applauded for their analytics and still made the same in game decision as the Giants. Analytics are a tool. They aren’t the final decision maker. That’s on the coach.
So essentially, you have no freakin clue on how analytics played a role or didn’t play a role in not calling timeouts against the Saints. None.
Some people stare facts in the face and pretend they don't exist
Sometimes the best education anyone can get is just losing
I truly hope you've enjoyed being the guy on the titanic telling everyone that it would never sink. How could it, people at the top of their field built it, it was unsinkable.
For the record, my argument has always been that this front office could possibly win but they are severely limiting their upside by not embracing technological advancements. People are here on the record as saying they are working night and day to overhaul their practices now. I told you this in the middle of our arguments that I speak in shades and hedge my positions well.
Even if they win this year seems like it will be the result of finally taking the steps that myself and others were advocating.
I'm happy I was an advocate for progress as opposed to suggesting it was ridiculous to assume anything but the Giants were on top of innovation.
know him in the real world. I wouldn't suggest that he doesn't know what he's saying.
I would respectfully disagree with him that Siam is the right kind of hire to lead an advanced analytics effort. And he's been with the team for 4 years and 5 months. The results on the field would absolutely support that, it's been one of our worst runs of football in franchise history. If he was providing say the front office with top flight information and we had these results it would imply that the people running the show were of below average intelligence. So what in people's estimation is the issue? Great information bad people? Great people and bad information? Or what?
RE: RE: Recall I started this because the Giants didn't know how to use
timeouts in game. Holding onto 3 timeouts against the Saints at the end of the half TWO years ago. No folly in pointing that out.
Shanahan did the exact same thing in the Super Bowl. In fact it likely cost them the game. Are you blaming their lack of analytics experts? Of course not. Because it wasn’t the Giants.
The 49ers are roundly applauded for their analytics and still made the same in game decision as the Giants. Analytics are a tool. They aren’t the final decision maker. That’s on the coach.
So essentially, you have no freakin clue on how analytics played a role or didn’t play a role in not calling timeouts against the Saints. None.
He reminds me of my teen aged son who sometimes after he learns something about a topic proceeds to act like an expert on the topic and will dig in hard when arguing someone else is wrong about something related to the topic. Usually it ends with him sheepishly apologizing when something he didn't consider was pointed out to him. He is sharp and will soon learn to not react prematurely because it's all part of the maturing process teens must go through. Right now he just gets a little to enthused about something he has learned that he finds interesting. NoGain reminds me of that, just harmless enthusiasm from a fan on a topic he finds interesting.
know him in the real world. I wouldn't suggest that he doesn't know what he's saying.
I would respectfully disagree with him that Siam is the right kind of hire to lead an advanced analytics effort. And he's been with the team for 4 years and 5 months. The results on the field would absolutely support that, it's been one of our worst runs of football in franchise history. If he was providing say the front office with top flight information and we had these results it would imply that the people running the show were of below average intelligence. So what in people's estimation is the issue? Great information bad people? Great people and bad information? Or what?
Maybe there's context missing here but I'm having trouble figuring out what you're upset about then. The Giants have stunk for some time now. No one here would argue that point. They have made stupid decisions and again no one would argue that point. Even Gettleman said that they're reorganizing the staff to put a larger emphasis on data and technology. So culturally they're at least committing publicly to putting more value on that side of things. And by the way it has had an effect in some areas already even if it hasn't translated to the win column. See linked tweet. So what's the problem? Link - ( New Window )
You have no freaking idea about Siam. You dont even know someone who knew someone who knows him.
And the logic that anyone in Analytics is responsible for the myriad of decisions and circumstances in the chain to field results is just so illogical.
the Giants github library has been non existent compared with other teams.
We have been terrible.
I don't know Siam but those 2 points in isolation are enough to say we haven't done a good job and the person running our analytics operation isn't doing a good enough job.
Just because the people who are on my side are tired of arguing with people that want to sweep the mistakes of our team doesn't mean i'm embarrassing myself.
That's the point i've always made and it has been a strong one and i'm not embarrassed in the least bit to hammer it home. As some of you absolutely were involved with the way the Giants have thought about this and allowed them to flounder.
In the New York talent market they needed to do better than their performance on the field and that Github library. Full stop it was negligent behavior.
Do any of us know how much it contributed to their decision making? No that's the red herring that has tossed around to disavow very relevant points made by those who know advanced analytics very well. Have built systems.
Exhausting people debating with you on a point that you've already decided, that the Giants haven't been negligent on this doesn't make you right. People that believe what I do are tired of arguing over it, that's why GoTerps left and it's absolutely relevant to remind people of that here as it's kind of phrased around here like an honest mistake the Giants made when it was the very thing you are accusing me of, overconfidence that they were handling something they didn't really understand.
love of God - please stop with this fucking nonsense:
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That's the point i've always made and it has been a strong one and i'm not embarrassed in the least bit to hammer it home. As some of you absolutely were involved with the way the Giants have thought about this and allowed them to flounder.
Nobody on this board allowed the team to flounder. Not a single fucking soul. You really aren't that dense are you?
That casting unfounded aspersions doesnt clean up a mess?
Ever ever occur to you that many people on BBI know a ton about Analytics, founded firms based on it, made their living in it for years, teach it at grad schools....but chose not to use it as if badges denote sound opinions?
Ever ever think ....its you? Not them? Ever consider that its not their shortcomings misunderstanding advanced predictive analytics...but your poor assumptions, illogical thinking, arrogance and refusal to engage in a way to learn
Assume you are half as smart as you think you are and make a quarter of the good insights you think you do...and take a period to humbly learn.
Maybe it has nothing to do with the Giants or anyone on the Giants. Or any noble cause you self nominate for yourself.
You cant heal by asserting things. Doesnt work that way.
it's not the multi billion dollar enterprise with one of the best talent bases in the world failing to demonstrate progress as simple as a github library that has failed.
It's the person that's pointing out that they should do better and using the qualifications of people they have and performance on the field as additional reference points. That's the embarrassment?
Could I have done this better? Yes, but most people always can say that.
Does it absolutely seem like from comments you've made on this thread that the Giants started taking this more seriously THIS off-season? Yes absolutely.
Was doing everything I could to see a future where they took it more seriously entirely my goal? Yes, yes and yes.
I don't care what part I played in it, I'm happy I did something. I'm happy I was on the side of pushing for modernizing. I do need to learn things, like everyone.
If what you have said is accurate i'm seeing what I want. The rolled up cruddy toilet paper analogy much more applies to the Giants than myself.
I wasn't always there but it has been many years since I've felt that I was more disrespectful to someone in a debate than they've been to me. I assure you any bravado or assertiveness I unleashed was as a calculated response to what I was getting.
that people on this board are in contact with decision makers.
So again, here you are speaking definitively on something you are 100% wrong about. What a surprise...
Look - self-proclaimed analytics expert - the idea that people on this board were involved in the way the Giants thought and "helped them flounder" is absurd at face value. If you dig deeper - it is pure fucking idiocy.
Think about it. Your assumption is that because people on BBI didn't complain about analytics that the Giants took no steps to implement them. That the Giants were happy to keep losing and not do anything on the analytics front because posters on BBI aided this thinking?? Are you really asserting that?
And then doubling down on it by alluding that you and others complaining about analytics finally got them to do something about it now??
Your timeline doesn't match up there, Ace. Tyseer Siam was brought on board several years ago. As was Berger.
For your ridiculous, back-slapping theory to work, the Giants would have had to be willfully ignoring analytics (because the fans weren't demanding it) and then only implement measures once the free-thinking analytics guys posted (the white knight, Capt'n Analytics!).
This is insanity with a heavy dose of smug cluelessness wrapped up all in one nice package of bullshit
NGD thinks he and Terps are sympatico except Terps actually stated his points clearly, supported them with supporting facts and insight which isn't what NGD is doing. I still can't figure out what the argument being made is aside from taking credit for the Giants new approach?
They were doing before and he doesnt know now. But he is certain that he and like minded posters were the Prime Movers
Except many of his assumptions in never saw anyone else make even when making the case the Giants were behind in this dimension.
I know I never made the case that they were ahead or behind. So many areas to consider I'd imagine any one team is ahead in one use case and behind in another.
It's a made up fake competition for its who implements an edge that "wins"
1) I don't claim to know what's going on in the building exactly. Nor do I think it's relevant or carries much weight who knows exactly or if anyone knows exactly. What matters and what I've pointed to is as long as they are making decisions that range from bad (Solder) to going against the grain on what the prevailing game theory would is wise probabilistic (Barkley) to truly head scratching things that seem to be both bad to the naked eye and poor game theory (LW and trading a premium pick for a player in a losing season in a contract year) which has the added distinction of being something that other teams don't do. When you do things like this and things like in the Saints game where you let them run down the clock and not give you the ball back when you have timeouts and they have 1st and goal it as Christian would say on some of the threads they could have teams of PhDs in vans in the parking lot and it shouldn't matter. But if you fall on your face as spectacularly as the Giants have...
2) The qualifications of the people you have in charge become relevant. Look hire your brother, hire someone that's never done the job, whoever, if the results on the field are there it doesn't matter one lick. That being said. When you have a guy like Siam in his position for 4.5 years of our worst performance it absolutely matters that he doesn't have experience with advanced math or building software systems when teams like the Patriots are using that stuff. When you don't have a github library for your organization. When the team has performed this poorly more heads should have rolled in the front office and as we watch teams modernize around us and we have the same guy leading the analytics effort and the same poor results, yeah I do not think it's fair to make the point that he's the right guy for the job. According to what metrics is he the right guy? Giants pride? What is that even anymore? To stick with Bill's poop analogies. If you walk by a building and it keeps smelling like shit and someone is like hey, maybe they should clean up the shit? Or bring in someone that's been proven to know how to clan up shit. The proper response to someone pointing that out isn't. Well have you ever seen anyone shitting in there? How do you know it's shit? Where's your proof. It doesn't matter who can prove what, what matters is it smells like shit and some people seem more than content to cover for the people doing whatever it is they are doing to make this team a steaming pile of it.
3)
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They were doing before and he doesnt know now. But he is certain that he and like minded posters were the Prime Movers
In no way shape or form have I ever called myself a prime mover. This is such an unbelievable stretch, I thought it might be beneath you but apparently not. My point has been and always will be that i'm an advocate for innovation, fostering fair cultures of creativity. I've stated numerous times on this thread that I don't know or care if I affected this process but I care that I tried to draw attention to the need to modernize. Which is much better than people who constantly downplay the extent that the people in charge haven't done nearly enough to make us better by looking at how to institute best practices, evolve, foster innovation. People who want to poke holes in arguments to defend a rotten nepotism oriented leadership structure that has failed us miserably. Yes, i'd rather be on the side of innovation every time. It's amazing how much the way a message is delivered comes into play when someone is defending a side without much other ground to stand on. Like the side of the Giants management being anything else but negligent failures in the last 4.5 years at least.
4) Strahan91, hello, remember when you tried to talk to me about the efficacy of non linear equations on a thread a year or so ago and I told you about my experience working with a major university on IP in evolving neural networks? When I tried to go into the work I did you just slinked off.
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If you knew what the Giants are actually doing in this space ( six days a week) since season end you would ask gidie to delete
This little threat that I would eat my words apparently because of the no doubt impressive work the Giants are doing now. Make whatever efforts you want to try to undermine the foundations of the points I've made but it is nothing short of insane to suggest that the Giants deserve any faith whatsoever in managements ability to do anything correctly right now. And yes, most people arguing this side i'm arguing are exhausted because it's like trying to convince a brick wall to be more giving but as I said when this started, sometimes you take peoples money for years and serve them shit sandwiches, sometimes they feel content in throwing some shit back at you.
Anyone that would like to get on a real life debate with me about analytics, AI, predictive systems where we can talk about what we know, how we've done it, what we've learned. I'd be happy to record that and post it here. Or broadcast it live. FatMan, interested? Would be my pleasure.
I don't have the slightest clue what you're talking about.
I'm not even sure you're thinking of me? Anyways, while we're on the subject, you do realize you continue to post buzzwords without actually explaining the point you're trying to get across.
You are qualified on this subject because you licensed IP from a university? If you want credibility you need to provide details.
I've spent the better part of the last decade working with tech startups. Examples include a company that built the first end-to-end ML models to teach a car to drive on roads its never seen before, a company that uses deep reinforcement learning to train robotic arms to navigate complex environments, and a speech recognition company that uses end to end DL models using CNN/RNN hybrid models.
I only provide those details because you seem to think you are a being of superior intelligent and have far more experience in these things than a bunch of people on a football message board you don't even know. Furthermore, none of what I've done has a damn thing to do with what the Giants do/don't do or to question their employees' credentials. Which is why I've been pressing you to figure out what the hell you're talking about and yet you just keep using buzzwords with no substance.
I’ve spent time posting full data architectures on threads before and I recalled a specific interaction with you where you questioned something l I answered it and you disappears. Didn’t get into it again because it’s been litigated to death with Fatman specifically. I’ll post the threads next week with more substantive points as I don’t mind having an earnest debate about what best practices should be. I’m just frustrated that people seem to want to use every opportunity to wash away a negligent job when many were pointing to it being negligent for years
It's all good. I was just trying to understand your viewpoint. If you've been attacked for it repeatedly before then being defensive is understandable. Tone also can get lost in text.
My broader point is/was that it's a lot easier to talk about these things than to actually implement them knowing that it may not actually pay dividends. Anecdotally, I've had some conversations with a former NBA exec whose FO was touted as a pioneer by the media years ago for the way they built their staff, conducted their business, etc. He'll be the first to tell you that it was a helluva lot harder and more complicated in reality than in theory. He's more skeptical now than when he started. Some of it is the limitations of the business side to sports and some is the need to combine "old school" and "new school" expertise which, when humans and egos/emotions are involved, turns out to be a real issue.
The latter is important because any data only captures what can be collected when there are a lot of factors that can't be captured in a manner machines can compute so you need to figure out a way to make that all work and provide results in a time frame short enough to keep your job.
Very much agree that much ( but not all as near as I can tell) was true. As is true of many nfl teams
Very much agree that their record has been dismal.
Given the industry and their talent and coaching and the length of time it takes to develop and implement across the needs and constraints of talent cycles...I submit the relationship may be much more correlation than causality in years past.
Of the list of differentiators and their impact when you are talent poor ?
The supposition that it's a huge difference maker like it is in other industries and games is not yet clear.
We will close by indicating they did start but clearly underinvested years ago.
Reese and ross were not big advocates or adopters and that could...could have a lot to do with it. Dont know
I'm not particularly knowledgeable about other teams, I suspect there's a spectrum from great to poor use of technology in their operations.
Things we know from the post season comments: the GM spoke to an analytics professional, they are upgrading the tech in their scouting system, and the owner feels there is work to be done.
Decent enough evidence for me 2 (of who knows how many) of the leaders of the shop want to upgrade. Probably need a tech upgrade, a management upgrade, and certainly a talent upgrade.
I'm careful to focus on technology and not analytics (I've given up silly conversation on analytics for Lent).
There are plenty of really useful applications for data collection, data science, video, hardware, and software to be a better ran football shop -- and that's without ever even dipping your toe near the A word waters.
My view -- the Giants have probably been as bad inside the walls as they've been on the sidelines and on the field.
Too many bad contracts, too many failed picks, too many fired coaches, too many games they should have won, too many assholes, too many losing seasons.
B) The need for the more basic ( and I don't know where they are on this past present or future)technology and people to do the basics (like simple rapid video editing packages cut per position/athlete/offense and defense) to do 2 things:
1) Without that basic technology and the right practices at the ground level you cant get good data "in". As awe all know advanced analytical techniques are fun to talk about but the ancient saying still holds: "Garbage in/Garbage out"
I don't think the like for like sample sizes of football are easy to build so I hold more faith in field level execution practices
2) Those tools and practices are essential to "see", teach and prepare.
great post to point out that being competitive in this field includes some more basic things done well and embedding those practices every week of the annual cycle.
I remember someone once asked BB would they repeat as Super Bowl winners that year and his answer was:
" All I can tell you is if we are meeting our goals this week. I cant see or know about the last week until it gets here. So every week we strive to hit all our marks behind the scenes. That plays out on the field each week. Then we take each week and only that week until they tell us to stop"
In football, more so than other endeavors, innovation only is useful of turns into incremental gains in total system execution.
Too many variables for even execution of brilliant insights ( if you could find those insights).
So far in football, I see a lot of retro confirmation of correlations. That's a big step if the organizations don't veer emotionally from the findings.
Im not sure BB is as innovative as he is ruthless at culling.
The Patriots are also so far an outlier from the rest of the curve as to be cautious in claiming their results work that well. I submit their 17 year record is temporary and not replicable.
I think they have invested in analytics. I don't know that they are yet using much of any of that new published direction as opposed to refining the core basic data gathering and dissemination that Adams and BB deployed going on two decades ago.
For example, they sure didn't use it to win the first six Super Bowls...it wasn't around in front of those years performance cycles.
Drafting the Goat in the sixth round tends to have a halo effect on a lot of other things in the virtuous cycle. IBM hadn't claimed "advanced predictive analytics" back then nor done well elsewhere and yet may be dashed upon the cliffs of the tiny comparable data sets filled with exogenous unrepeatable variables found in football.
He thinks the Giants haven't implemented analytics because the fans have generally been happy and supportive.
And even as I type that, I'm snarting shit out of my nose.
No folly in pointing out allocating steep assets to an RB position especially when your team isn't ready to compete is not a smart thing to do.
My point was never that they were at the bottom. But the fact that they were in New York and not leveraging that to be on the cutting edge was negligent.
You can twist it however you like, that's what you love to do. But the fact is I really know advanced predictive systems, and you really don't. And I have no more time for this.
You are a Peach, Captain Analytics!!
If you really know advanced predictive systems, you are incredibly poor at communicating that expertise.
Smart businesses in modern times would be using feedback from BBI to gauge customer sentiment, just like you can use Twitter to gauge customer/fan sentiment. This board is better gauge then any social media platform because it is full of the NY Giants core demographics.
It’s not going to drive everything, such as the draft picks or player personnel decisions (though professional teams use gauges how much money a team will make by signing big FA players ie Phillies signing Harper was money driven data analysis), but they certainly factor fan sentiment into some of the decision making that they do.
The difference is that at the end of the day, just about anyone who spends their time posting on BBI is as loyal as fans get. The fans here are not at risk of rooting for another football team or picking up golf on Sundays instead. They're not going anywhere so the sentiment matters less than customer sentiment for an airline or a brand on Twitter where there are other very plausible options.
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But the fact is I really know advanced predictive systems, and you really don't. And I have no more time for this.
You are a Peach, Captain Analytics!!
If you really know advanced predictive systems, you are incredibly poor at communicating that expertise.
Well, he is a CEO. That's what his profile says.
I know we don’t lag, but we have some different assumptions that may or may not be applicable in the long term.
Having someone like Ty Siam is a slam dunk. He’s very good.
For those complaining about the Giants being behind the times, you should pay close attention to what Kicker says on the subject. If you've followed his posts on the Covid-19 thread, you'll see that he's quite qualified to opine on this subject.
Shanahan did the exact same thing in the Super Bowl. In fact it likely cost them the game. Are you blaming their lack of analytics experts? Of course not. Because it wasn’t the Giants.
The 49ers are roundly applauded for their analytics and still made the same in game decision as the Giants. Analytics are a tool. They aren’t the final decision maker. That’s on the coach.
So essentially, you have no freakin clue on how analytics played a role or didn’t play a role in not calling timeouts against the Saints. None.
Sometimes the best education anyone can get is just losing
I truly hope you've enjoyed being the guy on the titanic telling everyone that it would never sink. How could it, people at the top of their field built it, it was unsinkable.
For the record, my argument has always been that this front office could possibly win but they are severely limiting their upside by not embracing technological advancements. People are here on the record as saying they are working night and day to overhaul their practices now. I told you this in the middle of our arguments that I speak in shades and hedge my positions well.
Even if they win this year seems like it will be the result of finally taking the steps that myself and others were advocating.
I'm happy I was an advocate for progress as opposed to suggesting it was ridiculous to assume anything but the Giants were on top of innovation.
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Quote:
But the fact is I really know advanced predictive systems, and you really don't. And I have no more time for this.
You are a Peach, Captain Analytics!!
If you really know advanced predictive systems, you are incredibly poor at communicating that expertise.
Well, he is a CEO. That's what his profile says.
Haha. Riiiight.
If I want to post sumptin when I dont know nothing I will. You dont own me. This is a Merica! I got rights. I can piss on myself whenever I want.
If I dont want to ever learn you cant take my freedom.
Commie.
I would respectfully disagree with him that Siam is the right kind of hire to lead an advanced analytics effort. And he's been with the team for 4 years and 5 months. The results on the field would absolutely support that, it's been one of our worst runs of football in franchise history. If he was providing say the front office with top flight information and we had these results it would imply that the people running the show were of below average intelligence. So what in people's estimation is the issue? Great information bad people? Great people and bad information? Or what?
Quote:
timeouts in game. Holding onto 3 timeouts against the Saints at the end of the half TWO years ago. No folly in pointing that out.
Shanahan did the exact same thing in the Super Bowl. In fact it likely cost them the game. Are you blaming their lack of analytics experts? Of course not. Because it wasn’t the Giants.
The 49ers are roundly applauded for their analytics and still made the same in game decision as the Giants. Analytics are a tool. They aren’t the final decision maker. That’s on the coach.
So essentially, you have no freakin clue on how analytics played a role or didn’t play a role in not calling timeouts against the Saints. None.
He reminds me of my teen aged son who sometimes after he learns something about a topic proceeds to act like an expert on the topic and will dig in hard when arguing someone else is wrong about something related to the topic. Usually it ends with him sheepishly apologizing when something he didn't consider was pointed out to him. He is sharp and will soon learn to not react prematurely because it's all part of the maturing process teens must go through. Right now he just gets a little to enthused about something he has learned that he finds interesting. NoGain reminds me of that, just harmless enthusiasm from a fan on a topic he finds interesting.
I think I strained some muscles shaking my head in disbelief here.
Magical thinking in every post.
Look, the thread was fading out and you jumped in to get attention by singing an old song.
If you were on your way to Bedlam, you should have jumped into that noose and started doing the hangman's jig.
You have been twisting, pissing and pooping yourself for an hour now. The whole square stinks. Please get yourself to the Thames and wash up.
Please. You are losing so much audience credibility you will need for other discussions. It is not fun to see you do this to yourself NGD.
You have been and are wrong on this subject. Period. No way to re frame it. Wisdom is the accumulation of lessons learned.
River is to the west.
I would respectfully disagree with him that Siam is the right kind of hire to lead an advanced analytics effort. And he's been with the team for 4 years and 5 months. The results on the field would absolutely support that, it's been one of our worst runs of football in franchise history. If he was providing say the front office with top flight information and we had these results it would imply that the people running the show were of below average intelligence. So what in people's estimation is the issue? Great information bad people? Great people and bad information? Or what?
Maybe there's context missing here but I'm having trouble figuring out what you're upset about then. The Giants have stunk for some time now. No one here would argue that point. They have made stupid decisions and again no one would argue that point. Even Gettleman said that they're reorganizing the staff to put a larger emphasis on data and technology. So culturally they're at least committing publicly to putting more value on that side of things. And by the way it has had an effect in some areas already even if it hasn't translated to the win column. See linked tweet. So what's the problem?
Link - ( New Window )
And the logic that anyone in Analytics is responsible for the myriad of decisions and circumstances in the chain to field results is just so illogical.
Babe, you are having a public breakdown.
Seriously, please make it stop for your own good.
That Shakespeare guy has a new one I'm going to go see. The Comedy of Errors.
We have been terrible.
I don't know Siam but those 2 points in isolation are enough to say we haven't done a good job and the person running our analytics operation isn't doing a good enough job.
Just because the people who are on my side are tired of arguing with people that want to sweep the mistakes of our team doesn't mean i'm embarrassing myself.
That's the point i've always made and it has been a strong one and i'm not embarrassed in the least bit to hammer it home. As some of you absolutely were involved with the way the Giants have thought about this and allowed them to flounder.
In the New York talent market they needed to do better than their performance on the field and that Github library. Full stop it was negligent behavior.
Do any of us know how much it contributed to their decision making? No that's the red herring that has tossed around to disavow very relevant points made by those who know advanced analytics very well. Have built systems.
Exhausting people debating with you on a point that you've already decided, that the Giants haven't been negligent on this doesn't make you right. People that believe what I do are tired of arguing over it, that's why GoTerps left and it's absolutely relevant to remind people of that here as it's kind of phrased around here like an honest mistake the Giants made when it was the very thing you are accusing me of, overconfidence that they were handling something they didn't really understand.
Nobody on this board allowed the team to flounder. Not a single fucking soul. You really aren't that dense are you?
So again, here you are speaking definitively on something you are 100% wrong about. What a surprise...
Ever ever occur to you that many people on BBI know a ton about Analytics, founded firms based on it, made their living in it for years, teach it at grad schools....but chose not to use it as if badges denote sound opinions?
Ever ever think ....its you? Not them? Ever consider that its not their shortcomings misunderstanding advanced predictive analytics...but your poor assumptions, illogical thinking, arrogance and refusal to engage in a way to learn
Assume you are half as smart as you think you are and make a quarter of the good insights you think you do...and take a period to humbly learn.
Maybe it has nothing to do with the Giants or anyone on the Giants. Or any noble cause you self nominate for yourself.
You cant heal by asserting things. Doesnt work that way.
All the best
Sure and by six degrees of separation he now has also influenced them and helped to right the franchise.
It's the person that's pointing out that they should do better and using the qualifications of people they have and performance on the field as additional reference points. That's the embarrassment?
Could I have done this better? Yes, but most people always can say that.
Does it absolutely seem like from comments you've made on this thread that the Giants started taking this more seriously THIS off-season? Yes absolutely.
Was doing everything I could to see a future where they took it more seriously entirely my goal? Yes, yes and yes.
I don't care what part I played in it, I'm happy I did something. I'm happy I was on the side of pushing for modernizing. I do need to learn things, like everyone.
If what you have said is accurate i'm seeing what I want. The rolled up cruddy toilet paper analogy much more applies to the Giants than myself.
I wasn't always there but it has been many years since I've felt that I was more disrespectful to someone in a debate than they've been to me. I assure you any bravado or assertiveness I unleashed was as a calculated response to what I was getting.
Haha. No kidding. This clown is a legend in his own mind.
So again, here you are speaking definitively on something you are 100% wrong about. What a surprise...
Look - self-proclaimed analytics expert - the idea that people on this board were involved in the way the Giants thought and "helped them flounder" is absurd at face value. If you dig deeper - it is pure fucking idiocy.
Think about it. Your assumption is that because people on BBI didn't complain about analytics that the Giants took no steps to implement them. That the Giants were happy to keep losing and not do anything on the analytics front because posters on BBI aided this thinking?? Are you really asserting that?
And then doubling down on it by alluding that you and others complaining about analytics finally got them to do something about it now??
Your timeline doesn't match up there, Ace. Tyseer Siam was brought on board several years ago. As was Berger.
For your ridiculous, back-slapping theory to work, the Giants would have had to be willfully ignoring analytics (because the fans weren't demanding it) and then only implement measures once the free-thinking analytics guys posted (the white knight, Capt'n Analytics!).
This is insanity with a heavy dose of smug cluelessness wrapped up all in one nice package of bullshit
You old bastard!
Except many of his assumptions in never saw anyone else make even when making the case the Giants were behind in this dimension.
I know I never made the case that they were ahead or behind. So many areas to consider I'd imagine any one team is ahead in one use case and behind in another.
It's a made up fake competition for its who implements an edge that "wins"
Kicker, Randy is tougher now since he's no longer allowed to have birthdays.
Thanks for reading
1) I don't claim to know what's going on in the building exactly. Nor do I think it's relevant or carries much weight who knows exactly or if anyone knows exactly. What matters and what I've pointed to is as long as they are making decisions that range from bad (Solder) to going against the grain on what the prevailing game theory would is wise probabilistic (Barkley) to truly head scratching things that seem to be both bad to the naked eye and poor game theory (LW and trading a premium pick for a player in a losing season in a contract year) which has the added distinction of being something that other teams don't do. When you do things like this and things like in the Saints game where you let them run down the clock and not give you the ball back when you have timeouts and they have 1st and goal it as Christian would say on some of the threads they could have teams of PhDs in vans in the parking lot and it shouldn't matter. But if you fall on your face as spectacularly as the Giants have...
2) The qualifications of the people you have in charge become relevant. Look hire your brother, hire someone that's never done the job, whoever, if the results on the field are there it doesn't matter one lick. That being said. When you have a guy like Siam in his position for 4.5 years of our worst performance it absolutely matters that he doesn't have experience with advanced math or building software systems when teams like the Patriots are using that stuff. When you don't have a github library for your organization. When the team has performed this poorly more heads should have rolled in the front office and as we watch teams modernize around us and we have the same guy leading the analytics effort and the same poor results, yeah I do not think it's fair to make the point that he's the right guy for the job. According to what metrics is he the right guy? Giants pride? What is that even anymore? To stick with Bill's poop analogies. If you walk by a building and it keeps smelling like shit and someone is like hey, maybe they should clean up the shit? Or bring in someone that's been proven to know how to clan up shit. The proper response to someone pointing that out isn't. Well have you ever seen anyone shitting in there? How do you know it's shit? Where's your proof. It doesn't matter who can prove what, what matters is it smells like shit and some people seem more than content to cover for the people doing whatever it is they are doing to make this team a steaming pile of it.
3)
4) Strahan91, hello, remember when you tried to talk to me about the efficacy of non linear equations on a thread a year or so ago and I told you about my experience working with a major university on IP in evolving neural networks? When I tried to go into the work I did you just slinked off.
Anyone that would like to get on a real life debate with me about analytics, AI, predictive systems where we can talk about what we know, how we've done it, what we've learned. I'd be happy to record that and post it here. Or broadcast it live. FatMan, interested? Would be my pleasure.
You are qualified on this subject because you licensed IP from a university? If you want credibility you need to provide details.
I've spent the better part of the last decade working with tech startups. Examples include a company that built the first end-to-end ML models to teach a car to drive on roads its never seen before, a company that uses deep reinforcement learning to train robotic arms to navigate complex environments, and a speech recognition company that uses end to end DL models using CNN/RNN hybrid models.
I only provide those details because you seem to think you are a being of superior intelligent and have far more experience in these things than a bunch of people on a football message board you don't even know. Furthermore, none of what I've done has a damn thing to do with what the Giants do/don't do or to question their employees' credentials. Which is why I've been pressing you to figure out what the hell you're talking about and yet you just keep using buzzwords with no substance.
My broader point is/was that it's a lot easier to talk about these things than to actually implement them knowing that it may not actually pay dividends. Anecdotally, I've had some conversations with a former NBA exec whose FO was touted as a pioneer by the media years ago for the way they built their staff, conducted their business, etc. He'll be the first to tell you that it was a helluva lot harder and more complicated in reality than in theory. He's more skeptical now than when he started. Some of it is the limitations of the business side to sports and some is the need to combine "old school" and "new school" expertise which, when humans and egos/emotions are involved, turns out to be a real issue.
The latter is important because any data only captures what can be collected when there are a lot of factors that can't be captured in a manner machines can compute so you need to figure out a way to make that all work and provide results in a time frame short enough to keep your job.
So again, here you are speaking definitively on something you are 100% wrong about. What a surprise...
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
No resume critiques, no Git scour, no knowing somebody who knows anybody necessary. They said it.
The forensics of the disciplines, the staff, and the comparisons to other teams is impossible to discern without much more information.
What's not hard to discern is the Giants have been abysmal for many years running and their tech is a part of it.
Very much agree that their record has been dismal.
Given the industry and their talent and coaching and the length of time it takes to develop and implement across the needs and constraints of talent cycles...I submit the relationship may be much more correlation than causality in years past.
Of the list of differentiators and their impact when you are talent poor ?
The supposition that it's a huge difference maker like it is in other industries and games is not yet clear.
We will close by indicating they did start but clearly underinvested years ago.
Reese and ross were not big advocates or adopters and that could...could have a lot to do with it. Dont know
Things we know from the post season comments: the GM spoke to an analytics professional, they are upgrading the tech in their scouting system, and the owner feels there is work to be done.
Decent enough evidence for me 2 (of who knows how many) of the leaders of the shop want to upgrade. Probably need a tech upgrade, a management upgrade, and certainly a talent upgrade.
I'm careful to focus on technology and not analytics (I've given up silly conversation on analytics for Lent).
There are plenty of really useful applications for data collection, data science, video, hardware, and software to be a better ran football shop -- and that's without ever even dipping your toe near the A word waters.
My view -- the Giants have probably been as bad inside the walls as they've been on the sidelines and on the field.
Too many bad contracts, too many failed picks, too many fired coaches, too many games they should have won, too many assholes, too many losing seasons.
A) Giving up on analytics for Lent
B) The need for the more basic ( and I don't know where they are on this past present or future)technology and people to do the basics (like simple rapid video editing packages cut per position/athlete/offense and defense) to do 2 things:
1) Without that basic technology and the right practices at the ground level you cant get good data "in". As awe all know advanced analytical techniques are fun to talk about but the ancient saying still holds: "Garbage in/Garbage out"
I don't think the like for like sample sizes of football are easy to build so I hold more faith in field level execution practices
2) Those tools and practices are essential to "see", teach and prepare.
great post to point out that being competitive in this field includes some more basic things done well and embedding those practices every week of the annual cycle.
I remember someone once asked BB would they repeat as Super Bowl winners that year and his answer was:
" All I can tell you is if we are meeting our goals this week. I cant see or know about the last week until it gets here. So every week we strive to hit all our marks behind the scenes. That plays out on the field each week. Then we take each week and only that week until they tell us to stop"
In football, more so than other endeavors, innovation only is useful of turns into incremental gains in total system execution.
Too many variables for even execution of brilliant insights ( if you could find those insights).
So far in football, I see a lot of retro confirmation of correlations. That's a big step if the organizations don't veer emotionally from the findings.
Im not sure BB is as innovative as he is ruthless at culling.
The Patriots are also so far an outlier from the rest of the curve as to be cautious in claiming their results work that well. I submit their 17 year record is temporary and not replicable.
I think they have invested in analytics. I don't know that they are yet using much of any of that new published direction as opposed to refining the core basic data gathering and dissemination that Adams and BB deployed going on two decades ago.
For example, they sure didn't use it to win the first six Super Bowls...it wasn't around in front of those years performance cycles.
Drafting the Goat in the sixth round tends to have a halo effect on a lot of other things in the virtuous cycle. IBM hadn't claimed "advanced predictive analytics" back then nor done well elsewhere and yet may be dashed upon the cliffs of the tiny comparable data sets filled with exogenous unrepeatable variables found in football.
Over and out.
This is fucking hilarious. Some people on this board have lost their fucking minds.
Quote:
Shit.
This is fucking hilarious. Some people on this board have lost their fucking minds.
Well, they do say that some inventors are eccentric.
I don't know if that applies to CEO's that jointly invent things with a university and their professors though.