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Q: What is the No. 4 pick in the draft worth in a trade-down? First of all, I am all for the Giants trading down — as long as they have a few players they love evaluated in the same grouping and would be happy to land any one of those players. Remember, general manager Dave Gettleman has never traded down in the seven drafts he’s overseen. As far as what the Giants could get in a trade down, the short answer is this: a lot. It depends on how far they go down in the draft. When a team is interested in trading up it is usually for a quarterback, and the team trading down knows it can use this to great advantage. In 2017, the 49ers traded down one spot (from No. 2 to No. 3) and received two third-round picks and one fourth-round pick from the Bears (Mitchell Trubisky). In 2018, the Colts traded down from No. 3 to No. 6 and received three second-round picks from the Jets (Sam Darnold). The key for the Giants is to find a trade partner and not drift too far down in the first round. The Chargers at No. 6 seems like a logical spot. It seems as if the Giants could add a second-round pick at the very least if they swap No. 4 for No. 6 and most likely more than that. |
or, what he said :)
So on a hypothetical question like this... sure, it's super easy to be enthused about trading down. Why not?
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That being said, I really hope we trade down this year... this team just has too many holes, and after getting a QB (which we got last year) it's less important to keep that money #4 pick and more important to expand our quantity of picks.
We need bodies, gentlemen.
Maybe more, if there is a bidding war.
The reality is that a trade down probably isn't on the table for us. Maybe at a discount but we aren't seeing a 2 unless Tua is there for some reason.
Sure there might be a second trade up for qb after the third pick. But the best return will go to the lions before we're on the clock.
2) let's play out the Darnold example. The minute DG or the Jets actually answer the call they know the Giants aren't going to pi l a QB. What leverage or motivation is there for the Jets to do anything at all but wait for their target.
I think we come up with trades that are good for us because it's fun. I'm not sure I hear a " Have to do it because there is a great risk or reward for the other guy not making or making this trade"
It also sets up another fan "gotcha" moment when it doesnt happen and a round of " why didnt he get more?"
Amazing to watch us manipulate ourselves so we can bitch after the fact.
If we were an NFL average Gm we would hit 51% of the time over a ten year stretch. Literally that's what the data shows. If we were a ten year top 8 GM we would get 57-59% of our guesses right and be wrong over 40% of the time.
It's not an easy job ( of course DGs media performances are cringeworthy enough to make even a 50% look attractive these days).
Don't be so simple minded. Barkley is who we wanted and we got him. Let's say the Giants made the trade with the Jets and now the Jets are sitting at #2. Who says the Jets dont then get an offer from a team sitting a couple of picks down to grab Barkley? We had NO IDEA who the Jets really liked as the draft was unfolding. That organization made a lot of stupid moves over the years.
The very simple point is that if DG executes a trade here then he thinks there is more value to be had than the status quo.
If it doesn’t happen then it wasn’t more, or it wasn’t available, or he is not wired to think beyond the status quo. Note that it doesn’t ever happen with the DG.
After the draft there is a lot of hard to pin down recreation of the options ( no one called with an offer could mean that or we didn't like the offers or we never pulled an offer out of them) or the famous we heard others were prepared to draft him early as well.
There definitely could be an incentive for the Dolphins to trade up. If they are *absolutely* convinced that Tua or Herbert is clearly the better QB prospect, I'd think they would be willing to offer up a #3 or whatever to guarantee they get their guy.
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Incentive for Miami to trade up unless the Giants have a serious offer from another team like the Chargers. Doubtful that DG can bluff that well and the GMs all know who everyone else is interested in anyway.
There definitely could be an incentive for the Dolphins to trade up. If they are *absolutely* convinced that Tua or Herbert is clearly the better QB prospect, I'd think they would be willing to offer up a #3 or whatever to guarantee they get their guy.
Much more than that.0
It’s all contingent on the organization’s value board , which by the way, must now be finalized . The only thing that could change it is an arrest or a revelation of some malfeasance from the past, hitherto unknown.
No more contacts , Pro Days , etc . If Gettleman is big on Simmons , an OT , a WR for that matter (please don’t say he wouldn’t -Barkley 2, Jones 6) , then they stay put. But if not ...
But . . .
There's an old Steve Martin stand up routine called "You can be a millionaire and never pay taxes." Link below. It starts, "First, get a million dollars . . ." (I'm old enough to remember when Martin was primarily a stand up comedian, before all the movies and such.)
Many trade down scenarios assume we can snap our fingers and make this happen. That strikes me as highly unrealistic. To throw just a few buckets of cold water on this scenario (I am not saying we couldn't get it done, just that it is not necessarily easy):
1. What if Detroit (or Washington) are willing to trade down? If they do and the Chargers get their QB (presumably Tua), then our trade changes become almost nil.
2. What if the Chargers see the upside of Tua discounted by his injury history, so they view Tua and Herbert as having the same relative draft value? In that case, they can wait for the Dolphins to pick and happily take whoever is left.
3. Most of the other fantasized trade partners now have satisfied their QB needs in free agency and will not trade valuable draft assets on top of the valuable cap/free agent assets already committed. Why, for example, would Carolina trade up now that they have committed $63M and 3 years to Bridgewater? Trading up to get someone who would sit for at least two years seems highly unlikely. Similarly, the Raiders have not tried to trade Carr and just bought a $17.5M, 2 year insurance policy (laden with incentives) in the name of Marcus Mariotta. They would not have done so if they planned to trade up for a rookie QB.
So count me a fan of Paul Schwartz's scenario, but let's not get our hopes up too high as there are many reasons it may not happen.
You can be a millionaire and never pay taxes - ( New Window )
All of these things are factored in. GMs will look at what players MAY Be available IF we make this trade with the other team and if we add players from THAT group farther down in the draft, will it improve our team more than the player who is right in front of us now at #4?
I am not opposed to trading down IF we get the return that we need THIS YEAR. I am not interested in next year's draft. We have too many holes to fill now.
In comment 14851513 ryanmkeane said:
Now if someone wants to jump up 6 or 7+ spots, then we are looking at a 2021 1st.
Scenario One: Tua and Herbert are both available at #4. Assuming Miami and Chargers both like Tua. But it really doesn't matter. Again, look at this from their perspective. Neither team really knows who the other likes. Miami would be taking a big chance, hoping the Chargers won't trade up, or might trade up and take Herbert. If the Chargers do trade up, Miami would be left to explain that to their fans. So there is definitely pressure on both those teams. Let the bidding begin!
Scenario two: Tua is off the board before #4. Assuming the Tier One QBs are Burrow, Tua, and Herbert. Now there is only one left. Unless either Miami or the Chargers definitely don't like Herbert (and there only has to be one who like him, because again, they're not sure the other doesn't), the pressure can be just as great.
However, if we trade with the Chargers and Miami doesn't like the other QB enough, they might just take Simmons right in front of us. Haha!
Let's get this draft underway!
In comment 14851513 ryanmkeane said:
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that the ceiling is probably two 2nd rounders, and the floor is probably something like two 3rd rounders if we only move 1 spot.
Now if someone wants to jump up 6 or 7+ spots, then we are looking at a 2021 1st.
Wow while I thought just a 3rd would be way too low. I think somewhere in between what you are asking for. Because heres the thing. If we trade with them it only costs us ONE pick. What do I mean...well you know they are going QB at 4 which we have no interest in. So it only leaves whoever is picking at 5. And if we really want OT there is a pretty good chance Simmon or Okudah go at that spot. Meaning our #1 target is still at the tradedown spot AND the salary would be a bit lower too.
I think in the end that would net us a 2nd and maybe a 3rd but not much more than that ...
Personally, I don't think DG will trade down, he has never done it, until he proves he will...