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PFF Coverage vs Pass Rush

Jon C. in MD : 3/28/2020 12:00 pm
I remember seeing something posted here a while back from PFF that showed that coverage was more important to pass defense vs pass rush. So, I looked for the article today on PFF and found an updated article from January of this year.

There’s a lot of stat nerdy discussions of correlations, etc. that I’m a little too hungover to process. But their overall conclusion is that coverage is still more impactful than pass rush.

I know that PFF is very hit and miss here. Try not to flame the messenger for sharing.

Here are a few quotes from the article.

Quote:


Last offseason, we made a pretty significant claim that pass-rush was not as important as previously thought and that coverage was more important than we’ve been led to believe.

PFF coverage grades correlated with winning in sample more than pass-rush did from 2006-2018, and it was more predictive of defensive success year-on-year, as well. This upset some people, but it has gotten an increasing amount of support within both traditional football circles and the analytics community.

In 2019, we found what we’ve observed that each time we have studied how different PFF grade facets affect defensive efficiency, coverage correlates more highly to things like EPA allowed than pass-rush does. Some of the premier defenses in the NFL — the Patriots, Ravens and Bills, for example —are explicitly favoring coverage in their personnel preferences, while the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers have all made an effort to improve in the secondary through the draft, free agency and trades, and they have reaped the benefits as a result.

Pff data study coverage vs pass rush part three - ( New Window )
The 90 Giants D pass rush wasn't all that  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 3/28/2020 12:49 pm : link
yet they were the best D in the league.

BB a little ahead of the curve as usual with his bend but don't break soft cover 2 that Gibbs whined about.
Thanks for posting this  
ChicagoMarty : 3/28/2020 12:53 pm : link
it is what I have been saying for years.

It is nice to see the argument quantified.

It may also provide some cover for DG not procuring nor drafting any meaningful pass rushers this offseason
It doesn’t take a computer  
Mike in NY : 3/28/2020 1:09 pm : link
Unless you can blow up every play with a 3 or 4 man front opposing offenses can scheme to defeat a pass rush. That being said, you need at least a certain minimum there or eventually someone will get open or draw a ticky tack penalty. If you look at the Giants O, the biggest issue was that teams were able to generate a pass rush without the blitz or obvious pass rush looks even when we in theory had more blockers than they had rushers.
Not explained very well, at least for my aging brain.  
Reese's Pieces : 3/28/2020 11:17 pm : link
When they are weighing the value of the pass rush, are they including turnovers -- fumbles and picks -- created by a strong pass rush?

Are they including collective effect of the quarterback taking many hits over the course of the game?
RE: Not explained very well, at least for my aging brain.  
Eric on Li : 3/28/2020 11:46 pm : link
In comment 14852734 Reese's Pieces said:
Quote:
When they are weighing the value of the pass rush, are they including turnovers -- fumbles and picks -- created by a strong pass rush?

Are they including collective effect of the quarterback taking many hits over the course of the game?


Hits and pressures supposedly go into their grades, so simple answer is yes. But going down the rabbit hole on how much their grades mean is a riddle without an answer bc nobody knows how their grades are constructed.

IMO the more telling stat than their grades is seeing that Belichek dedicates 1/4 of his cap to paying DB's. I believe the top 5 cap hit secondaries last year were the Pats, Titans, Baltimore, Bears, and Miami (though all their guys were on IR) - so there's certainly some general logic that the teams that invest in their secondaries are seeing results.
Their..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/30/2020 7:43 am : link
whole argument hinges on this statement:

Quote:
PFF coverage grades correlated with winning in sample more than pass-rush did from 2006-2018, and it was more predictive of defensive success year-on-year, as well.


But their ratings are so woefully poor that you can't draw any conclusions from them. They have been particularly bad in evaluating line play on both sides, so I don't know how much validity can be placed on a faulty premise. Their grades of the DB's are questionable too because if a DB isn't involved in a play, they often assign a "0" grade because they can't figure out what the player's assignment was supposed to be. Meanwhile, for the DL, they often give a negative grade if the player didn't get push or wasn't involved in pursuit of the play - even if that wasn't what the player was supposed to be doing.
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