We always hear about that points chart for picks, but should we consider a few trade down scenarios even if we get back less value pick-wise than we should?
The idea would be just to get more picks in the deepest draft in memory.
My thinking is that that chart does not account for the depth of talent in a particular draft like this one.
I would just seek to load up on picks and maybe this would entice some partners to trade with us in this one....
Thoughts?
I personally hope we trade back to 5 or 6, but I don't know how I would feel going back any further for mediocre value and then they miss out on their favorite OT and defensive player in the first.
If your position guarantees a tier one player (on your draft board), you at least want to obtain a tier one position, plus additional value, in return.
For instance, pick 4 would guarantee us either Simmons or the best OT on our board. You go into the teens plus maybe a 2 and a 3, you drop out of tier one and lose a probable blue chipper while getting more players of more questionable talent. Very iffy.
You want maybe your third or fourth rated OT rather than your first?
I'd be shocked if Arizona didn't go OT at pick #8, and that should start the run on OTs.
Nothing is guaranteed, but the higher you draft, especially in round one, the better chance your pick will be successful.
Odds are Miami gets Detroit's pick at 3. The Chargers may move up for Love but with the Colts trading their pick they really don't have any competition for him. I've seen some unrealistic returns from fans in trade down scenarios. IF NYG moves from 4 to 6 realistically they recoup an early 3rd and a pick next year.
There's also the possibility of a team moving up in front of the Lions (if they trade back to 5) for Okudah.
All drafts are NOT created equal. In a deep draft the disparity from one tier to the next is not as acute.
The "devil is in the detail", for instance how do we compare a high performing LB (peer-wise) to a high performing CB ... QB etc.
In this draft, for example, there doesn't seem to be a big difference in the quality of the top four offensive tackles; the question - do any of these deserve to be picked in the top five ? I don't know.
The last offensive lineman, in recent memory that was a "no-brainer" was guard Quenton Nelson.
Still, I hope we go down from 4 still within the top 10 where we ought to land a decent OL -- hopefully Thompson.