OT at #4 - A reach - Matt Manocherian, former NFL scout

Hope you are well

It’s funny because guys like Dave TE don’t see Burrow as anything. I believe Dave said he’s not even in his top 40. He also has wirfs as being good value at 4. Scouts are all over the place which is why this is a fun time of year to debate and discuss

If they stay at #4, clearly the best value will be either Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, or Isaiah Simmons.

The better “ value” for offense of tackle would be at #36 with guys like Josh Jones, Austin Jackson, Ezra Cleveland, Isaiah Wilson, Lucas Niang, or Prince Tega Wanogho potentiality being available.

Honestly, the more I think about it, I think the best course of action is to trade down a few spots, see if you can still snag Simmons, and then collect one of the tackles mentioned above, and potentially a center like Ruiz, Cushenberry, Hennessy, or Biasasz with the first 3 picks.

I wonder if lack of consensus being discussed in NFL cirlces at OT (among the top 4 names or so) artificially pushes them all behind the other supposed "blue-chip" players noted? I think there may be something to it.

Also, far from any reasonable certainty that a guy like Jones lasts into Rd 2. Lots of projections noting between 6-8 OTs could go in the first 30 or so picks.

Could you imagine waiting on OT if you were the Giants and then seeing 8 of them come off the board before your Rd 2 pick. DG might have to clear out his desk before Day 3 started.

love Simmons and Jones. Solves two huge needs immediately.

In comment 14858875 Jon in NYC said:

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love Simmons and Jones. Solves two huge needs immediately.

Agreed, that would be a great round 1 an 2. Draft a WR or Edge Rusher in round 3 and we are off to the races.

But I sure hope, they can swap with miami and/or Chargers...and get extra picks...

I would love Simmons, and come away with OT , C, FS and WR....in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

I'm OK "reaching" for an OL if you have a need.

Take Brandon Scherff - hasn't been as good as hoped but he's still very good and I'm sure the Skins are happy with the investment.

What you can't have happen is Ereck Flowers.

The Giants currently have 2 good OLs - Hernandez & Zeitler. Coming out of the 4 spot with a good starting Offensive Lineman is a win. One potential snag will be taking Wirfs and him flopping at T like Scherff. Now you've got 3 G's.

But what’s crazy is to not get their hands on a tackle it 36, they would need more than 8 to go.

By my count, it would be closer to 10:

Wirfs
Wills
Thomas
Becton
Cleveland
Jones
Jackson
Wilson
Niang
Wanogho

That means 1 tackle goes off the board every 3.5 picks. That would be nuts.

And if somehow that did happen, that means they would have crazy value at another position at 36.

in your list that I don't think are anywhere close to year 1 starters at Tackle. And quite frankly may not be Tackles at all at the NFL level which would be a problem longer term.

I think there are 6 or 7 guys that are reasonable choices for Tackle this year. After they are gone, I would switch focus to who is sitting their at Center, Free Safety and WR. But then you have just "punted" at Tackle and imv have a significant problem.

Just like you don't want to make a mistake at #4, you also don't want to at #36.

In comment 14858865 Bill2 said:

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Hope you are well

Thanks Bill, being pretty compliant with social distancing and other measures such as sterilizing anything coming house, using gloves for mail etc.

We suffered a personal tragedy in our family in January. This isolation has made adjusting to a new norm more difficult, but everyone is suffering through this, we re not alone, we do the best we can.

Take care my friend, be well

I don’t know why people keep saying it is

I have a really, really hard time believing that OT would be the best player available at 4. It would seem like a reach for sure. They need to just trade down if they're determined to go OT in the first round. You can't tell me nobody wants to trade up to 4, whether it's for Simmons/Okudah or a QB.

Does he come in and immediately start and play better than what we have. If not then he's not a "great value". In fact, that would waste a pick where we could have drafted a center who could have come in and started leaving short two needed starters and us right where we are now. So, with all due respect to Mr. Manocherian "great value" is a relative term

round.

What happens if Jones, Wilson,Jackson, Cleveland are all gone? There’s 0 guarantee that a 2nd or 3rd tier OT will be good.

is finding a team that wants Tua and needs to get ahead of Miami.

And then there's the Chargers.

In comment 14858912 BigBlueCane said:

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is finding a team that wants Tua and needs to get ahead of Miami. And then there's the Chargers.

I think Herbert is a bit of a wildcard here. If he is rising after a sterling combine (hopefully aced interviews), you could see MIA and LAC jockeying to get him as well. He seems like a clean prospect from health and work ethic perspective.

In comment 14858871 Vin_Cuccs said:

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If they stay at #4, clearly the best value will be either Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, or Isaiah Simmons. The better “ value” for offense of tackle would be at #36 with guys like Josh Jones, Austin Jackson, Ezra Cleveland, Isaiah Wilson, Lucas Niang, or Prince Tega Wanogho potentiality being available. Honestly, the more I think about it, I think the best course of action is to trade down a few spots, see if you can still snag Simmons, and then collect one of the tackles mentioned above, and potentially a center like Ruiz, Cushenberry, Hennessy, or Biasasz with the first 3 picks.

I was all in on OT at 4 but the more I read on diferent articles and those on here that follow more CFB than I do I have to agree with this. Simmons at 4 and tackle at 36 and C in the 3rd round. Should be able to get the right value at the right picks this way.

but its the worst kept secret that the Dolphins are all in for Tua.

So the Giants would need another team that's interested in either to jump both to trade down.

And that's assuming Simmons is gone to Detroit at #3, otherwise the Giants will just take him and not even bother fielding calls.

It’s not necessarily about starting as a rookie-it’s about value.

Any of those 10 would be pretty good value at #36

If the pick is able to play at a high level. Otherwise it’s a waste. The farther you get from the first round, the more likely that the OTs play will be inferior

think his opinion on the OTs is probably correct. They all have flaws which make them less valuable than the defensive players he cites. I also agree that Thomas is the best. I'd like Thomas with a trade down, but as others have noted, that requires a partner. COVID - 19 may make teams leery about trading up, especially for a QB.

The problem is that if the Giants don't take an OT at #4, then Thomas, Becton, Wills, Wirfs, Jackson, Jones, and probably Cleveland will likely be gone by #36. The Giants would therefore either have to disregard taking the BPA at #4, or accept that they won't get a premium tackle in this draft. That latter possibility is problematic since they spent the #2 and #6 picks on Barkley and Jones in the last two drafts.

The only way to avoid this problem is to trade back up into the first round after taking a defensive player at #4. That would be very expensive, especially since this team has a lot of holes.

Would he be available at 6 if we traded down with the Chargers or would Miami take him. I know if you have a conviction on a guy you take him and don’t take chances but it would be great for a little poker play.

Say burrow, chase, Okudah, go 1,2 and 3, and Charges and Miami both want qbs, we could drop and still get whoever our players are. Miami could through a curve ball in that.

My ideal is to drop to 5 or 6 and take Simmons, get some extra picks and cluster draft oline starting with a trade up back into the first round.

In comment 14858930 Vin_Cuccs said:

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It’s not necessarily about starting as a rookie-it’s about value. Any of those 10 would be pretty good value at #36

It's only value if they eventually do start. As I mentioned in my earlier post, I think your expanded list has some guys that will be relegated to Guard or NFL backups at Tackle. And if that's the case on the NYG, with our OL, we aren't helping ourselves much.

In comment 14858893 Vin_Cuccs said:

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But what’s crazy is to not get their hands on a tackle it 36, they would need more than 8 to go. By my count, it would be closer to 10: Wirfs Wills Thomas Becton Cleveland Jones Jackson Wilson Niang Wanogho That means 1 tackle goes off the board every 3.5 picks. That would be nuts. And if somehow that did happen, that means they would have crazy value at another position at 36.

You would expect the Giants probably to have lower grades on a couple of those guys. Wilson for instance is only a fit in certain systems amd is definitely not an LT. Maybe not an RT either unless you run a certain type of passing game. Not high on Niang either.Prince is interesting but some see him as a project. Like Jones and Jackson but they also probably go round 1 .

What we would need is a slight trade down hopefully and then a trade up back into round 1. Unless you expand this to include Ruiz who may be the only guy worth a high round 2 , late round 1 pick. Cush to me is late round 2 value.

Gates could be the wild card in all this. I have a hunch they see him as a guy who can legitimately compete to be a quality starter on multiple spots on the OL. His third year now and he showed out well both in training camp and regular season at a couple spots. Otherwise you left 3 spots on the OL as wide open if FA. Not a smart move from a team claiming that addressing the OL has been a priority.

Solder gave up 7 more pressures that the next closest tackle think about that. You can't just assume 1 year older now he will resume his former average play.

makes a lot of sense. Let's not out think ourselves. Should be one of those non-QBs or a trade-down.

then I don't see DG trading out or taking an OT instead of him. That would run contrary to his pattern of not getting cute.

Acid with some of the same points I was trying to make as well.

Vin - I think we see your expanded list differently. You see a lengthier list of available Tackles with guys 7-10, and I see I mix of guys that will be developmental or serviceable or Guards at best.

That isn't very interesting to me, and I hope it isn't interesting to the NYG.

In comment 14858951 Giantimistic said:

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Would he be available at 6 if we traded down with the Chargers or would Miami take him. I know if you have a conviction on a guy you take him and don’t take chances but it would be great for a little poker play. Say burrow, chase, Okudah, go 1,2 and 3, and Charges and Miami both want qbs, we could drop and still get whoever our players are. Miami could through a curve ball in that. My ideal is to drop to 5 or 6 and take Simmons, get some extra picks and cluster draft oline starting with a trade up back into the first round.

Who does Detroit like Brown or Okudah or even an OT? They would be the only team in the way from us still getting Simmons at 6. OR you simply take the OT there then trade up for Murray. Murray is a touch less cover but more pure LB. You assume in that tradedown that you might get their 2nd. 2 high 2nds gets us all the way into top 15-20. Murray likely goes in that area.

Personally I like Becton/Wills/Wirfs and Murray over Simmons and Niang/Cleveland/Prince.

The minute Daniel Jones take a massive hit and is out for the season. The rhetoric will then change to "The Giants were stupid for not taking an OT at #4. They had their pick of them and they made the wrong choice! FIRE DAVE GETTLEMEN!".

seems locked into Okudah or Simmons.

In comment 14858990 nzyme said:

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The minute Daniel Jones take a massive hit and is out for the season. The rhetoric will then change to "The Giants were stupid for not taking an OT at #4. They had their pick of them and they made the wrong choice! FIRE DAVE GETTLEMEN!".

Exactly. It's like everyone has forgotten our terrible OL killing the last 7/8 seasons.

In comment 14858909 Ira said:

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round.

Yeah of course he'd be great value at #36, because he'd be great value at #25 or #30. There could easily be seven OT going on Day One with Jackson, Jones, and Cleveland all worthy of first round consideration.

Or he could be gone leaving DG and Daniel Jones, whose nickname would be going from Danny Dimes to Danny 'Medical' Jones, up shit creek without a paddle.

This whole 'no consensus' on the OT talking point is crap too. Teams don't poll the NFL for a consensus on Draft prospects. The Giants scouts and FO personnel pros aren't getting scouting feedback from the Eagles, Pats and Chargers. They'll come to a consensus in the room on one guy at the top of the group, then the next and right on down the line.

When all is said and done their top OT will be a talent comparable to Brown/Simmons/Okudah.

In comment 14858951 Giantimistic said:

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Would he be available at 6 if we traded down with the Chargers or would Miami take him. I know if you have a conviction on a guy you take him and don’t take chances but it would be great for a little poker play. Say burrow, chase, Okudah, go 1,2 and 3, and Charges and Miami both want qbs, we could drop and still get whoever our players are. Miami could through a curve ball in that. My ideal is to drop to 5 or 6 and take Simmons, get some extra picks and cluster draft oline starting with a trade up back into the first round.

This is the dream scenario

In comment 14859035 Torrag said:

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Or he could be gone leaving DG and Daniel Jones, whose nickname would be going from Danny Dimes to Danny 'Medical' Jones, up shit creek without a paddle. This whole 'no consensus' on the OT talking point is crap too. Teams don't poll the NFL for a consensus on Draft prospects. The Giants scouts and FO personnel pros aren't getting scouting feedback from the Eagles, Pats and Chargers. They'll come to a consensus in the room on one guy at the top of the group, then the next and right on down the line. When all is said and done their top OT will be a talent comparable to Brown/Simmons/Okudah.

We do not know how the Giants will tank the OT against Brown, Okudah and Simmons. Nobody does. The Giants might not even know yet.

If they stay at 4 they're gonna take the best player on their board. If they trade down it makes more sense then to take the best OL available that they like.

The likelihood of an OT coming in and starting from day one is very unrealistic. Even if he is the 4th pick.

This will be wildly unpopular, and not ideal, but starting week 1 tackles will most likely be Solder and either Gates or Fleming.

So in reality, I have no issue taking a bit of a project with upside in the top half of the 2nd round with hopes he develops quickly.

Top 10 OL start. Now if the pandemic keeps them off the field, cancels OTA's, shortens training camp then it's a different situation.

.

In comment 14859124 Vin_Cuccs said:

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The likelihood of an OT coming in and starting from day one is very unrealistic. Even if he is the 4th pick. This will be wildly unpopular, and not ideal, but starting week 1 tackles will most likely be Solder and either Gates or Fleming. So in reality, I have no issue taking a bit of a project with upside in the top half of the 2nd round with hopes he develops quickly.

A tackle at #4 may not start day 1, but undoubtedly should be by around mid season.

A project at #36 may not ever start at tackle.

Agree-#4 should be ready to start sooner rather than later.

Disagree-#36 should absolutely be a quality starter by worst case year two. If not, it is time for a new general manager.

of wanting Solder and Gates/Fleming starting at tackle for much longer than a few weeks.

But I’m assuming they will begin the season as starters due to their familiarity with the coaching staff, and the fact that they are veterans.

In comment 14859174 Vin_Cuccs said:

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Agree-#4 should be ready to start sooner rather than later. Disagree-#36 should absolutely be a quality starter by worst case year two. If not, it is time for a new general manager.

The 8th or 9th tackle in this draft is a plus starter at Offensive Tackle in the NFL, at worst, by his 17th game?

If that is factual, then I am all for waiting to pick an OT. I wonder why the NYG didn't ever just do that before.

In comment 14859196 Vin_Cuccs said:

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But I’m assuming they will begin the season as starters due to their familiarity with the coaching staff, and the fact that they are veterans.

Very possible.

In comment 14859011 BillT said:

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In comment 14858990 nzyme said: Quote: The minute Daniel Jones take a massive hit and is out for the season. The rhetoric will then change to "The Giants were stupid for not taking an OT at #4. They had their pick of them and they made the wrong choice! FIRE DAVE GETTLEMEN!". Exactly. It's like everyone has forgotten our terrible OL killing the last 7/8 seasons.

I've said this before, but if Gettleman went offensive line in round 1, round 2, AND round 3, it would be weird, but totally understandable.

But Sy's take on Simmons swung the gate the other way for me. He was dead right about Darius Leonard and Devin White and Devin Bush. From following his work the past several years, his ability to discern DB and LB talent is to me is his greatest strength. I recall vividly him being a staunch Justin Simmons guy when a lot here didn't think he was fast enough for the NFL. He was just franchised by the Broncos. When it comes to these two spots, I trust Sy 100% so for me, Simmons has to be the pick if he's there and Young doesn't fall.

In comment 14859303 FStubbs said:

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In comment 14859011 BillT said: Quote: In comment 14858990 nzyme said: Quote: The minute Daniel Jones take a massive hit and is out for the season. The rhetoric will then change to "The Giants were stupid for not taking an OT at #4. They had their pick of them and they made the wrong choice! FIRE DAVE GETTLEMEN!". Exactly. It's like everyone has forgotten our terrible OL killing the last 7/8 seasons. I've said this before, but if Gettleman went offensive line in round 1, round 2, AND round 3, it would be weird, but totally understandable.

It might just save his job.

In comment 14858867 Tuckrule said:

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It’s funny because guys like Dave TE don’t see Burrow as anything. I believe Dave said he’s not even in his top 40. He also has wirfs as being good value at 4. Scouts are all over the place which is why this is a fun time of year to debate and discuss

Dave Te also said Nick Fitzgerald would be the best QB in his draft class going into his final college season. Let's not act like he's bulletproof in most years and THIS year is the oddity.

The Giants take CB Okudah because he is the BPA and has a much higher chance of being a rookie success than anone else including Simmons.

In comment 14859107 Rjanyg said:

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In comment 14859035 Torrag said: Quote: Or he could be gone leaving DG and Daniel Jones, whose nickname would be going from Danny Dimes to Danny 'Medical' Jones, up shit creek without a paddle. This whole 'no consensus' on the OT talking point is crap too. Teams don't poll the NFL for a consensus on Draft prospects. The Giants scouts and FO personnel pros aren't getting scouting feedback from the Eagles, Pats and Chargers. They'll come to a consensus in the room on one guy at the top of the group, then the next and right on down the line. When all is said and done their top OT will be a talent comparable to Brown/Simmons/Okudah. We do not know how the Giants will tank the OT against Brown, Okudah and Simmons. Nobody does. The Giants might not even know yet.

Fair point, but the idea that the draftniks need to reach consensus in order for an OT prospect to be worthy of selection is fucking dumb.

Simmons, Okudah or Young at 4. Otherwise trade down.