A few weeks ago, I put up a thread on BBI to explain my feeling that the Giants were in a unique position (completely virus related) because they had 4 picks in Round 7.
The success history of draft picks in Round 7 is not great (about 16% stay in the NFL), but again, I feel that past history is not very meaningful in seeing what happens with this years draft.
Last year we saw 32 different trades involving Round 7 picks, and all were for a very minimal return.
On Friday, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk interviewed Peter King. The topic was Day 3 of the NFL draft. King explained that he has been talking to NFL GMs about the challenges in preparing for this years draft.
King's conclusion after speaking to many GMs?- "this year I expect teams to use Day 3 "to swing for singles rather than to swing for triples"
King added that teams really want to know as much as possible about every player before they use a draft pick. He felt that players who attended the Combine or Senior Bowl are far more likely to get drafted this year.
He said that players not invited to the Combine, players from smaller schools, top players with injuries in 2019, and players with off field issues were more likely to be UDFAs, rather than draft picks this year.
As I have said before, I hope that the Giants keep and use all 4 of their Round 7 picks. As Florio added "there could be some "homeruns" (rather than singles) hit by GMs willing to take a draft pick chance on a player with something special.
Once the 255th pick is made, expect an UDFA free for all. Teams will aggressively try to negotiate with undrafted players. It is aggressive every year, the difference being that the talent pool of UDFAs will be higher this year.
The Giants have a huge opportunity to lock up 4 players before UDFAgency begins. I hope they keep all 4 Round 7 picks and use those picks to "swing for the triples".
Now how about some names?
RB Adrian Killins-Central Florida. Its unlikely a player that is 5'8" and 164 pounds gets drafted. Unless you watch him play. Not afraid of contact. Good hands out of the backfield. A returner. And most importantly-probably the fastest player in college football last year (apologies to Mr. Ruggs). Talk about a change of pace back. I attached some video.
LB Marcus Bailey-Purdue. Last year he was one of the very best linebackers in college football. Suffered a bad injury and has become a forgotten man with no 2019 season. (Sy '56 doesn't even list him on his Linebackers thread). Can Bailey return to last years form?
FS-Kenny Robinson- West Virgina. I have spoken about him before. Thrown out of school for academic cheating- his girlfriend took his online college course- and he will drop in the draft because of off field issues-and not for his football talent.
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I rather they be safe and resolve holes with their 1st 5 picks...Edge, OT, FS, WR and center.
And
Like you said, swing for the fences in 7th...besides, how many 7th rd singles will make team?
Since the virus situation started, their have only been two trades of 7th rounders (Chris Wormley and Andy Janovich) and each of those trades were for 2021 7th rounders (not a 2020).
Not a single 2020 7th rounder has been traded since the virus situation (and 14 were traded prior).
I'd expect players who fit a similar profile - mostly bigger school players who have a perceived knock, but had the talent to go higher if their conditions had been more ideal (i.e. if Slayton played for Georgia instead of Auburn). Culture fit and ST ability will likely be an especially big deal this year with Judge coming on - I expect at least a couple of their picks are ST standouts.
Everyone will be working with the same measurables anyway.
More nuggets to be found, but also more players signed who just are not qualified to compete.
Everyone will be working with the same measurables anyway.
More nuggets to be found, but also more players signed who just are not qualified to compete.
Center is the other position that seems to have a larger than usual amount of day 2 types (Ruiz, Biadasz, Hennessy, Cushenberry, Harris, Muti, Williams, Hanson). Typically there are only a few centers taken before day 3 (last year there were 3 and that was considered a good year for Centers) - so it's likely multiple of those guys don't get selected until day 3.
So our comp pick and the early 4th are where I suspect there will be a WR + OL available who will be considered good values. That in part steers me away from those positions in round 1 unless there's overwhelmingly clear value. OL less so since we probably need to double up there anyway. But if I was guessing where the consensus positional value lines up with our picks I'd say:
1. best D (we all know the consensus options here)
2. best OL (mcginn had 9 in his top 50, 8 were OTs)
3. best OL or WR
4. best OL or WR
5. BPA but likely a D (a la McIntosh/Connelly/Ballentine)
6. BPA (I'd guess a RB with ST ability here just bc RB's fall)
7. who knows
Think you swing for the fences that late. Especially w OL. TKe a raw mix of maybe a kid w shitty technique bit great athleticism.
Reese's approach was to "hit for triples" as you say but then you had a bunch of guys like Cooper Taylor, Mykkele Thompson, Geremy Davis or Adrian Robinson that couldn't play specials and didn't know what the fuck they were doing when they got on the field.
So yeah, hit for singles.
Will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out.
As John Madden once said, when you're in the 7th round of the draft and don't have any strong convictions, pick somebody large and unusual.
One of the NE guys said its a three round draft. 4th and beyond you are usually looking at prospects no better than FAs laying on their couch like Golden, Mayo, Latimer...
What'd I miss?
Can teach other things but not speed.
Definitely take him at 7 (where most 'experts' he will still be available.
Agreed.