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Draft Day 3- Will the Giants swing for singles or triples?

YANKEE28 : 4/5/2020 9:29 am
A few weeks ago, I put up a thread on BBI to explain my feeling that the Giants were in a unique position (completely virus related) because they had 4 picks in Round 7.

The success history of draft picks in Round 7 is not great (about 16% stay in the NFL), but again, I feel that past history is not very meaningful in seeing what happens with this years draft.

Last year we saw 32 different trades involving Round 7 picks, and all were for a very minimal return.

On Friday, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk interviewed Peter King. The topic was Day 3 of the NFL draft. King explained that he has been talking to NFL GMs about the challenges in preparing for this years draft.

King's conclusion after speaking to many GMs?- "this year I expect teams to use Day 3 "to swing for singles rather than to swing for triples"

King added that teams really want to know as much as possible about every player before they use a draft pick. He felt that players who attended the Combine or Senior Bowl are far more likely to get drafted this year.

He said that players not invited to the Combine, players from smaller schools, top players with injuries in 2019, and players with off field issues were more likely to be UDFAs, rather than draft picks this year.

As I have said before, I hope that the Giants keep and use all 4 of their Round 7 picks. As Florio added "there could be some "homeruns" (rather than singles) hit by GMs willing to take a draft pick chance on a player with something special.

Once the 255th pick is made, expect an UDFA free for all. Teams will aggressively try to negotiate with undrafted players. It is aggressive every year, the difference being that the talent pool of UDFAs will be higher this year.

The Giants have a huge opportunity to lock up 4 players before UDFAgency begins. I hope they keep all 4 Round 7 picks and use those picks to "swing for the triples".

Now how about some names?

RB Adrian Killins-Central Florida. Its unlikely a player that is 5'8" and 164 pounds gets drafted. Unless you watch him play. Not afraid of contact. Good hands out of the backfield. A returner. And most importantly-probably the fastest player in college football last year (apologies to Mr. Ruggs). Talk about a change of pace back. I attached some video.

LB Marcus Bailey-Purdue. Last year he was one of the very best linebackers in college football. Suffered a bad injury and has become a forgotten man with no 2019 season. (Sy '56 doesn't even list him on his Linebackers thread). Can Bailey return to last years form?

FS-Kenny Robinson- West Virgina. I have spoken about him before. Thrown out of school for academic cheating- his girlfriend took his online college course- and he will drop in the draft because of off field issues-and not for his football talent.


Link - ( New Window )
Last year Gettleman stated that he views the 7th round  
JoeFootball : 4/5/2020 9:39 am : link
as the beginning of UDFA. He prefers big people because they're so hard to find and can command big bonuses after the draft.
Its lying season....so who knows what anyone is really thinking  
George from PA : 4/5/2020 9:47 am : link
Many of these players have been followed for years....

I rather they be safe and resolve holes with their 1st 5 picks...Edge, OT, FS, WR and center.

And

Like you said, swing for the fences in 7th...besides, how many 7th rd singles will make team?
I stopped reading the moment I saw "Peter King"  
EricJ : 4/5/2020 9:49 am : link
...
Man oh man, that boy Killins  
aGiantGuy : 4/5/2020 10:03 am : link
Some of the angles he’s taking would be ridiculous at the high school level, let alone against power-5 d1 schools. Can we say return specialist??
---  
Peppers : 4/5/2020 10:10 am : link
I think you may see an uptick in movement with the picks on the back end this year. Some teams looking to unload, others looking to add. All depending on the philosophy/strategy with these lower-tier players and how much information they were able to gather.

I like the idea  
GiantsRage2007 : 4/5/2020 10:27 am : link
Of using those 7th rounders as trade chips to move up a bit in the middle round to grab someone who falls. If a C or WR etc projected as a 2nd/3rd happens to fall and we can move up a bit to get him I think it’s worth a couple 7s.
There are just so many quality WRs in this draft  
ChicagoMarty : 4/5/2020 10:39 am : link
the Seventh round could be a place to find a nugget or two!
We will  
YANKEE28 : 4/5/2020 10:39 am : link
see what happens between now and draft day, but I think that NFL teams will hold onto their 2020 draft picks more closely this year.

Since the virus situation started, their have only been two trades of 7th rounders (Chris Wormley and Andy Janovich) and each of those trades were for 2021 7th rounders (not a 2020).

Not a single 2020 7th rounder has been traded since the virus situation (and 14 were traded prior).
Noboby  
XBRONX : 4/5/2020 10:44 am : link
is giving squat for 7th rounders.
I agree they won't make all those picks (may punt a few to next yr)  
Eric on Li : 4/5/2020 10:44 am : link
with the picks they do make though, I expect they will do exactly what they did last year. Take guys who have skills and fit with the culture they are looking for. Love was a day 2 guy who slid to day 3. Connelly wasn't the highest profile LB, but he had a great first step and split in those first 10 yards. Slayton was viewed as a raw work in progress, but he also had long speed. Ballentine was a small school guy who showed he was an exceptional athlete at the combine. The year prior Mcintosh was a guy who slid bc of a medical condition. Big George and Slayton were sort of gambles on size in rd 7 last year.

I'd expect players who fit a similar profile - mostly bigger school players who have a perceived knock, but had the talent to go higher if their conditions had been more ideal (i.e. if Slayton played for Georgia instead of Auburn). Culture fit and ST ability will likely be an especially big deal this year with Judge coming on - I expect at least a couple of their picks are ST standouts.
Great  
AcidTest : 4/5/2020 10:57 am : link
post. I agree. I'd like to use all the seventh round picks for the reasons you cite. We won't get much in return for them anyway, even if we packaged them all together. This team also has a lot of holes. I'm fine using one on Robinson.
CM  
YANKEE28 : 4/5/2020 10:58 am : link
You make a great point regarding the receivers available this year.
I think most will approach Day 3 and UDFAs the same way as always  
Ivan15 : 4/5/2020 11:08 am : link
Whatever their philosophy happens to be. I don’t With more anticipation that your scouts know something that other teams don’t know.

Everyone will be working with the same measurables anyway.

More nuggets to be found, but also more players signed who just are not qualified to compete.
I think most will approach Day 3 and UDFAs the same way as always  
Ivan15 : 4/5/2020 11:10 am : link
Whatever their philosophy happens to be. With more anticipation that your scouts know something that other teams don’t know.

Everyone will be working with the same measurables anyway.

More nuggets to be found, but also more players signed who just are not qualified to compete.
goes without saying but it's hard to project anything past top 100/150  
Eric on Li : 4/5/2020 11:22 am : link
Right around pick #100 is where I think the depth of WR's is going to push value, since there are so many graded in that range. At that point it just becomes math. Ex. Tyler Johnson is GBN's #26 WR. Claypool is #12, Pittman is #11. Someone is just going to fall, like Julian Love did last year.

Center is the other position that seems to have a larger than usual amount of day 2 types (Ruiz, Biadasz, Hennessy, Cushenberry, Harris, Muti, Williams, Hanson). Typically there are only a few centers taken before day 3 (last year there were 3 and that was considered a good year for Centers) - so it's likely multiple of those guys don't get selected until day 3.

So our comp pick and the early 4th are where I suspect there will be a WR + OL available who will be considered good values. That in part steers me away from those positions in round 1 unless there's overwhelmingly clear value. OL less so since we probably need to double up there anyway. But if I was guessing where the consensus positional value lines up with our picks I'd say:

1. best D (we all know the consensus options here)
2. best OL (mcginn had 9 in his top 50, 8 were OTs)
3. best OL or WR
4. best OL or WR
5. BPA but likely a D (a la McIntosh/Connelly/Ballentine)
6. BPA (I'd guess a RB with ST ability here just bc RB's fall)
7. who knows
Funny. 16% is the league average  
LauderdaleMatty : 4/5/2020 11:48 am : link
And that was pretty much Reese’s average for every other round except for 1st which wasnt much higher.

Think you swing for the fences that late. Especially w OL. TKe a raw mix of maybe a kid w shitty technique bit great athleticism.
One thing I like that Gettleman has done is draft guys....  
sb from NYT Forum : 4/5/2020 11:54 am : link
...with a clear intention of how they will contribute to the team. For example, all the later round guys have at least been able to contribute on special teams. Others are also smart and capable players that make for good depth.

Reese's approach was to "hit for triples" as you say but then you had a bunch of guys like Cooper Taylor, Mykkele Thompson, Geremy Davis or Adrian Robinson that couldn't play specials and didn't know what the fuck they were doing when they got on the field.

So yeah, hit for singles.
SB  
YANKEE28 : 4/5/2020 12:18 pm : link
Seems like you need to re read my thread
Interesting Point  
WillVAB : 4/5/2020 1:17 pm : link
There may be another dynamic at play as well — teams more willing to part with 2020 picks to move up for guys they have conviction for/investigated prior to the outbreak.

Will definitely be interesting to see how this plays out.
As of now  
Jay on the Island : 4/5/2020 1:48 pm : link
Two of my favorite options for round 7 are WR Isaiah Coulter from RI and QB Kelly Bryant from Missouri.
RE: Last year Gettleman stated that he views the 7th round  
OntheRoad : 4/5/2020 1:49 pm : link
In comment 14859718 JoeFootball said:
Quote:
. . . He prefers big people because they're so hard to find . . . .


As John Madden once said, when you're in the 7th round of the draft and don't have any strong convictions, pick somebody large and unusual.
Either is fine  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 4/5/2020 2:59 pm : link
a spikey player with flaws and red flags, or a role player like a FB, ST, run stuffer, slot corner, etc.,
RE: Noboby  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 4/5/2020 3:05 pm : link
In comment 14859770 XBRONX said:
Quote:
is giving squat for 7th rounders.

One of the NE guys said its a three round draft. 4th and beyond you are usually looking at prospects no better than FAs laying on their couch like Golden, Mayo, Latimer...

RE: SB  
sb from NYT Forum : 4/5/2020 3:39 pm : link
In comment 14859844 YANKEE28 said:
Quote:
Seems like you need to re read my thread


What'd I miss?
For last round picks, I have always like the idea of taking shots  
LBH15 : 4/5/2020 5:20 pm : link
on WRs, RBs and LBs with speed.

Can teach other things but not speed.
Chris Orr  
Jay in Toronto : 4/5/2020 6:43 pm : link
also doesn't appear on Sy's LB list.

Definitely take him at 7 (where most 'experts' he will still be available.
RE: As of now  
AcidTest : 4/5/2020 6:50 pm : link
In comment 14859909 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
Two of my favorite options for round 7 are WR Isaiah Coulter from RI and QB Kelly Bryant from Missouri.


Agreed.
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